Late-Cenozoic relief evolution under evolving climate: A review

OpenAIRE

Champagnac Jean Daniel; Valla Pierre G.; Herman Frédéric

2014-01-01

The present review paper is an attempt to summarize quantitative evidence of Late Cenozoic changes in topographic relief. Different meanings of the word "relief" as it is commonly used and detail the metrics used to quantify it. We then specify methodological tools used to quantify relief change (primarily low temperature thermochronometry and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides) and analyze published evidence for different regions.Our review first shows that relief changes and rates of changes a...

Late Cenozoic Paleoceanography of the Central Arctic Ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Regan, Matt

2011-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and perhaps least accessible of the worlds oceans. It occupies only 26% of the global ocean area, and less than 10% of its volume. However, it exerts a disproportionately large influence on the global climate system through a complex set of positive and negative feedback mechanisms directly or indirectly related to terrestrial ice and snow cover and sea ice. Increasingly, the northern high latitude cryosphere is seen as an exceptionally fragile part of the global climate system, a fact exemplified by observed reductions in sea ice extent during the past decades [2]. The paleoceanographic evolution of the Arctic Ocean can provide important insights into the physical forcing mechanisms that affect the form, intensity and permanence of ice in the high Arctic, and its sensitivity to these mechanisms in vastly different climate states of the past. However, marine records capturing the late Cenozoic paleoceanography of the Arctic are limited - most notably because only a single deep borehole exists from the central parts of this Ocean. This paper reviews the principal late Cenozoic (Neogene/Quaternary) results from the Arctic Coring Expedition to the Lomonosov Ridge and in light of recent data and observations on modern sea ice, outlines emerging questions related to three main themes: 1) the establishment of the 'modern' Arctic Ocean and the opening of the Fram Strait 2) the inception of perennial sea ice 3) The Quaternary intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

2015-01-01

We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

Climate trends across South Africa since 1980

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2018-04-03

Apr 3, 2018 ... ISSN 1816-7950 (Online) = Water SA Vol. ... South Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures ... Understanding trends in climate can assist resource management and determine possible economic impacts. ... Reanalysis systems that augment ... future climate under rising greenhouse gases.

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Cenozoic to Cretaceous paleomagnetic dataset from Egypt: New data, review and global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Perrin, Mireille; Saleh, Ahmed

2018-04-01

Different phases of igneous activity took place in Egypt during the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic and oriented samples were collected from three Cenozoic localities (Baharya oasis in the Western Desert, Abu Had in the Eastern Desert and Quseir along the Red Sea coast), and four Cretaceous localities (Toshki & Abu Simbel south of Aswan, and Shalaten & Abu Shihat along the Red Sea coast). Rock magnetic properties of the samples indicate magnetite and titanomagnetite as the main carrier of the remanent magnetization. Following stepwise demagnetization, characteristic remanent directions were identified only for 62% of the samples, a fairly low rate for that type of samples, and 8 new paleomagnetic poles were calculated. All our Cenozoic poles fall clearly off Master Polar Wander Paths proposed for South Africa. Therefore, all paleomagnetic results, previously published for Egypt, were compiled from Cretaceous to Quaternary. The published poles largely overlap, blurring the Egyptian Apparent Polar Wander Path. A new analysis at the site level was then carried out. Only poles having a kappa larger than 50 were selected, and new pole positions were calculated by area and by epoch, when at least 3 sites were available. Even though the selection drastically reduced the number of considered poles, it allows definition of a reliable Cenozoic apparent polar wander trend for Egypt that differs from the South African Master Polar Wander Path by about 10-15 °. If the Cretaceous igneous poles are in good agreement with the rest of the African data, the sedimentary poles plot close to the Cenozoic portion of the South African Master Polar Wander Path, a discrepancy that could be related either to inclination flattening and/or error on age and/or remagnetization in the Cenozoic.

Late Cenozoic continuous aridification in the western Qaidam Basin: evidence from sporopollen records

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. F. Miao

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Cenozoic climate changes in inner Asia provide a basis for understanding linkages between global cooling, the Tibetan Plateau uplift, and possibly the development of the East Asian monsoon. Based on a compilation of palynological results from the western Qaidam Basin, this study reconstructed a 15-million-year (Ma record of changing vegetation and paleoclimates spanning the middle Miocene to present (comprising two series: ~ 18–5 Ma and ~ 3.1–0 Ma, respectively. The thermophilic percentages were highest between 18 and 14 Ma, and decreased after 14 Ma, closely corresponding to the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO between 18 and 14 Ma and the following global climatic cooling between 14 and 5 Ma. At the same time, decreases in the xerophytic and coniferous taxa percentages, and the increasing logarithmic ratio of non-arboreal pollen to arboreal pollen (ln (NAP/AP, reveal the continuous aridification across both the basin and surrounding mountains. Between ~ 3.1 and 0 Ma, the percentages of the thermophilic, xerophytic and coniferous pollen as well as the ln (NAP/AP imply further cooling and drying in this region since 3.1 Ma. We argue that these vegetation and climate patterns during the late Cenozoic western Qaidam Basin are primarily a result of the global cooling, with the Tibetan Plateau uplift and East Asian summer monsoon having contributions of lesser importance.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Cenozoic climate change shaped the evolutionary ecophysiology of the Cupressaceae conifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittermann, Jarmila; Stuart, Stephanie A; Dawson, Todd E; Moreau, Astrid

2012-06-12

The Cupressaceae clade has the broadest diversity in habitat and morphology of any conifer family. This clade is characterized by highly divergent physiological strategies, with deciduous swamp-adapted genera-like Taxodium at one extreme, and evergreen desert genera-like Cupressus at the other. The size disparity within the Cupressaceae is equally impressive, with members ranging from 5-m-tall juniper shrubs to 100-m-tall redwood trees. Phylogenetic studies demonstrate that despite this variation, these taxa all share a single common ancestor; by extension, they also share a common ancestral habitat. Here, we use a common-garden approach to compare xylem and leaf-level physiology in this family. We then apply comparative phylogenetic methods to infer how Cenozoic climatic change shaped the morphological and physiological differences between modern-day members of the Cupressaceae. Our data show that drought-resistant crown clades (the Cupressoid and Callitroid clades) most likely evolved from drought-intolerant Mesozoic ancestors, and that this pattern is consistent with proposed shifts in post-Eocene paleoclimates. We also provide evidence that within the Cupressaceae, the evolution of drought-resistant xylem is coupled to increased carbon investment in xylem tissue, reduced xylem transport efficiency, and at the leaf level, reduced photosynthetic capacity. Phylogenetically based analyses suggest that the ancestors of the Cupressaceae were dependent upon moist habitats, and that drought-resistant physiology developed along with increasing habitat aridity from the Oligocene onward. We conclude that the modern biogeography of the Cupressaceae conifers was shaped in large part by their capacity to adapt to drought.

Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events in southern Iberian Peninsula: Implications for the evolutionary history of freshwater fish of the genus Squalius (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Perea, Silvia; Cobo-Simon, Marta; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-04-01

Southern Iberian freshwater ecosystems located at the border between the European and African plates represent a tectonically complex region spanning several geological ages, from the uplifting of the Betic Mountains in the Serravalian-Tortonian periods to the present. This area has also been subjected to the influence of changing climate conditions since the Middle-Upper Pliocene when seasonal weather patterns were established. Consequently, the ichthyofauna of southern Iberia is an interesting model system for analyzing the influence of Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events on its evolutionary history. The cyprinids Squalius malacitanus and Squalius pyrenaicus are allopatrically distributed in southern Iberia and their evolutionary history may have been defined by Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events. We analyzed MT-CYB (510 specimens) and RAG1 (140 specimens) genes of both species to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships and to estimate divergence times and ancestral distribution ranges of the species and their populations. We also assessed their levels of genetic structure and diversity as well as the amount of gene flow between populations. To investigate recent paleogeographical and climatic factors in southern Iberia, we modeled changes-through-time in sea level from the LGM to the present. Phylogenetic, geographic and population structure analyses revealed two well-supported species (S. malacitanus and S. pyrenaicus) in southern Iberia and two subclades (Atlantic and Mediterranean) within S. malacitanus. The origin of S. malacitanus and the separation of its Atlantic and Mediterranean populations occurred during the Serravalian-Tortonian and Miocene-Pliocene periods, respectively. These divergence events occurred in the Middle Pliocene and Pleistocene in S. pyrenaicus. In both species, Atlantic basins possessed populations with higher genetic diversity than Mediterranean, which may be explained by the Janda Lagoon. The isolation of S. malacitanus was

LATE CREATACEOUS-CENOZOIC SEDIMENTS OF THE BAIKAL RIFT BASIN AND CHANGING NATURAL CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor D. Mats

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The late Cretaceous-Cenozoic sediments of fossil soils and weathering crusts of the Baikal rift have been subject to long-term studies. Based on our research results, it is possible to distinguish the following litho-stratigraphic complexes which are related to particular stages of the rift development: the late Cretaceous–early Oligocene (crypto-rift Arheo-baikalian, the late Oligocene–early Pliocene (ecto-rift early orogenic Pra-baikalian, and the late Pliocene-Quaternary (ecto-rift late orogenic Pra-baikalian – Baikalian complexes. Changes of weathering modes (Cretaceous-quarter, soil formation (Miocene-quarter and differences of precipitation by vertical and lateral stratigraphy are analysed with regard to specific features of climate, tectonics and facial conditions of sedimentation. Tectonic phases are defined in the Cenozoic period of the Pribaikalie.

Dynamic topography and the Cenozoic carbonate compensation depth

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, S. M.; Moucha, R.; Raymo, M. E.; Derry, L. A.

2015-12-01

The carbonate compensation depth (CCD), the ocean depth at which the calcium carbonate accumulation rate goes to zero, can provide valuable insight into climatic and weathering conditions over the Cenozoic. The paleoposition of the CCD can be inferred from sediment core data. As the carbonate accumulation rate decreases linearly with depth between the lysocline and CCD, the CCD can be calculated using a linear regression on multiple sediment cores with known carbonate accumulation rates and paleodepths. It is therefore vital to have well-constrained estimates of paleodepths. Paleodepths are typically calculated using models of thermal subsidence and sediment loading and compaction. However, viscous convection-related stresses in the mantle can warp the ocean floor by hundreds of meters over broad regions and can also vary significantly over millions of years. This contribution to paleobathymetry, termed dynamic topography, can be calculated by modeling mantle flow backwards in time. Herein, we demonstrate the effect dynamic topography has on the inference of the late Cenozoic CCD with an example from the equatorial Pacific, considering sites from IODP Expeditions 320/321. The equatorial Pacific, given its large size and high productivity, is closely tied to the global carbon cycle. Accordingly, long-term changes in the equatorial Pacific CCD can be considered to reflect global changes in weathering fluxes and the carbon cycle, in addition to more regional changes in productivity and thermohaline circulation. We find that, when the dynamic topography contribution to bathymetry is accounted for, the equatorial Pacific CCD is calculated to be appreciably shallower at 30 Ma than previous estimates would suggest, implying a greater deepening of the Pacific CCD over the late Cenozoic.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius G T Schut

Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

Science.gov (United States)

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications. ... African Journal of Sustainable Development ... with a specific focus on the themes that have dominated current studies, major research methods in use, major theories that ...

A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth.

Science.gov (United States)

Pälike, Heiko; Lyle, Mitchell W; Nishi, Hiroshi; Raffi, Isabella; Ridgwell, Andy; Gamage, Kusali; Klaus, Adam; Acton, Gary; Anderson, Louise; Backman, Jan; Baldauf, Jack; Beltran, Catherine; Bohaty, Steven M; Bown, Paul; Busch, William; Channell, Jim E T; Chun, Cecily O J; Delaney, Margaret; Dewangan, Pawan; Dunkley Jones, Tom; Edgar, Kirsty M; Evans, Helen; Fitch, Peter; Foster, Gavin L; Gussone, Nikolaus; Hasegawa, Hitoshi; Hathorne, Ed C; Hayashi, Hiroki; Herrle, Jens O; Holbourn, Ann; Hovan, Steve; Hyeong, Kiseong; Iijima, Koichi; Ito, Takashi; Kamikuri, Shin-ichi; Kimoto, Katsunori; Kuroda, Junichiro; Leon-Rodriguez, Lizette; Malinverno, Alberto; Moore, Ted C; Murphy, Brandon H; Murphy, Daniel P; Nakamura, Hideto; Ogane, Kaoru; Ohneiser, Christian; Richter, Carl; Robinson, Rebecca; Rohling, Eelco J; Romero, Oscar; Sawada, Ken; Scher, Howie; Schneider, Leah; Sluijs, Appy; Takata, Hiroyuki; Tian, Jun; Tsujimoto, Akira; Wade, Bridget S; Westerhold, Thomas; Wilkens, Roy; Williams, Trevor; Wilson, Paul A; Yamamoto, Yuhji; Yamamoto, Shinya; Yamazaki, Toshitsugu; Zeebe, Richard E

2012-08-30

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5 kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55 million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.

Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

2017-12-01

The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical

Crop-climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mavromatis, Theodoros

2015-05-01

Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop-climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978-2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8-7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4-6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from -3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m2/day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m2/day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley—the most vulnerable cereals—were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Franzke

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ² distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-E. Park

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle Fraser

Full Text Available Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present, and (ii climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

Observed trends in climate over Southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Davis-Reddy, Claire L

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The body of work on historical climate trends has been steadily increasing during the last decade. Global mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C since 1880 and are projected to increase by 0.3 to 2.5 °C by 2050, relative to the 1985...

Temporal and Spatial Trend of Climate Variability in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Duc Luong Nguyen

2014-01-01

Vietnam’s long coastline, geographic location, and diverse topography and climates contribute to its being one of the most hazard-prone countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Given that a high proportion of the country’s population and economic assets are located in coastal lowlands and deltas, Vietnam has been ranked among the five countries likely to be most affected by global climate change. This paper aims at providing a short overview on the temporal and spatial trends of climate variabil...

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Equatorial heat accumulation as a long-term trigger of permanent Antarctic ice sheets during the Cenozoic.

Science.gov (United States)

Tremblin, Maxime; Hermoso, Michaël; Minoletti, Fabrice

2016-10-18

Growth of the first permanent Antarctic ice sheets at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), ∼33.7 million years ago, indicates a major climate shift within long-term Cenozoic cooling. The driving mechanisms that set the stage for this glaciation event are not well constrained, however, owing to large uncertainties in temperature reconstructions during the Eocene, especially at lower latitudes. To address this deficiency, we used recent developments in coccolith biogeochemistry to reconstruct equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric pCO 2 values from pelagic sequences preceding and spanning the EOT. We found significantly more variability in equatorial SSTs than previously reported, with pronounced cooling from the Early to Middle Eocene and subsequent warming during the Late Eocene. Thus, we show that the Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary was preceded by a period of heat accumulation in the low latitudes, likely focused in a progressively contracting South Atlantic gyre, which contributed to cooling high-latitude austral regions. This prominent redistribution of heat corresponds to the emplacement of a strong meridional temperature gradient that typifies icehouse climate conditions. Our equatorial coccolith-derived geochemical record thus highlights an important period of global climatic and oceanic upheaval, which began 4 million years before the EOT and, superimposed on a long-term pCO 2 decline, drove the Earth system toward a glacial tipping point in the Cenozoic.

Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

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Xuanji Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

Trends of climatic changes considering over years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 for Sarajevo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majstorovic, Zeljko; Toromanovic, Aida; Halilovic, Senada

2004-01-01

Linear trends of changes in climatic parameters have been observed for Sarajevo and we considered correlation with world's trends and mutual correlation of years .1894-1993 and 1894-2003, both for the same meteorological station Sarajevo. In purpose of ascertaining correlation with global climate's changes, Sarajevo's records have been studied over the primary climatic parameters: average annual temperatures, absolute annual maximum and minimum temperatures, annual sum of rainfalls and drought index. We used method of adding of linear trends. Correlation with global tendency of climate has be shown as follow: - We notice increase of average temperature about 0.7 o C in past 100 years - We notice a rapid increase of absolute minimum temperature in compare with values of absolute maximum temperatures. - Annual sum of rainfalls doesn't show drastic changes. - We notice asymmetry trend for some actual seasons. - We notice increase of drought. During correlation of trends for years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 has been noticed rapid increase of temperature and drought-index, while considering rainfalls there has not been drastic changes. (Author)

Paleoclimate from fossil plants and application to the early Cenozoic Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, S. L.

2011-12-01

Wladimir Köppen called vegetation "crystallized, visible climate," and his metaphor encouraged paleobotanists to climb the chain of inference from fossil plants to paleovegetation to paleoclimate. Inferring paleovegetation from fossils has turned out to be very difficult, however, and today most paleobotanical methods for inferring paleoclimate do not try to reconstruct paleovegetation as a first step. Three major approaches are widely use to infer paleoclimate from plant fossils: 1) phylogenetic inferences rely on the climatic distributions of extant relatives of fossils, 2) morphological inferences use present-day correlations of climate with plant morphology (e.g, leaf shape, wood anatomy), and 3) chemical inferences rely on correlations between climate and the stable isotopic composition of plants or organic compounds. Each approach makes assumptions that are hard to verify. Phylogenetic inference depends on accurate identification of fossils, and also assumes that evolution and/or extinction has not shifted the climatic distributions of plant lineages through time. On average this assumption is less valid for older time periods, but probably it is not radically wrong for the early Cenozoic. Morphological approaches don't require taxonomic identification of plant fossils, but do assume that correlations between plant form and climate have been constant over time. This assumption is bolstered if the ecophysiological cause of the morphology-climate correlation is well understood, but often it isn't. Stable isotopic approaches assume that present-day correlations between isotopic composition and climate apply to the past. Commonly the chemical and physiological mechanisms responsible for the correlation are moderately well known, but often the variation among different taxonomic and functional groups of plants is poorly characterized. In spite of limitations and uncertainties on all methods for inferring paleoclimate from fossil plants, broad patterns emerge from

PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

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Michael J. Foster

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

Science.gov (United States)

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sejrup, H.P.; Seppä, H.; McKay, N.; Kaufman, D.S.; Geirsdottir, A.; de Vernal, A.; Renssen, H.; Husum, K.; Jennings, A.; Andrews, J.T.

2016-01-01

To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

2015-12-01

Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

Is climate change intensifying the drying-trend in the Caribbean?

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, D. A.; Ault, T.; Fasullo, J.; Carrillo, C. M.

2017-12-01

Since 1950, the Caribbean (11ºN-25ºN; 85ºW-60ºW) has seen a significant drying trend characterized by several recent droughts, some of them contemporaneous with El Niño events. Moreover, the most recent drought from 2013 to 2016 was both the most severe and widespread event since at least 1950, and was associated with high temperatures, likely driven in part by climate change. This work examines the role of increased evaporative demand resulting from warmer temperatures on the drying trend observed in the Caribbean since 1950, using observations and model simulations. Large-scale dynamics associated with drought are also analyzed using sea surface temperature, geopotential height, wind, and precipitation anomalies, as well as radiative fluxes anomalies. Furthermore, land surface model soil moisture and high-resolution self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) datasets are used to quantify drought severity at local scales. The anthropogenic contribution to drought severity is estimated as the difference between the scPDSI calculated using linearly-detrended temperatures, and the scPDSI computed with the observed trend, with unadjusted precipitation, net radiation, and wind speed. Soil moisture anomalies driven by climate change are derived by comparing a large ensemble of forced simulations against a pre-industrial control. The resulting analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing has intensified the drying trend in the Caribbean by -0.4 scPDSI-units over 60 years, and has increased the dry-land area by 10%. These findings are consistent with observed potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies, which are 30% higher than PET-anomalies estimated using detrended temperatures. These results suggest that climate change is already increasing the risk of drought in the Caribbean by enhancing the atmospheric demand of moisture through temperature, and provide insights into the role of climate change in future drought risk in the region.

Climate trends, the U.S. drought of 1988, and access to data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenne, R.L.

1990-01-01

Selected climate trends are presented, together with information about selected data sets, and where a scientist can find more data for climate research. One source of plots of climatic indices is referenced. Plans for reanalysis of the atmosphere for 35 years are summarized. The greenhouse effect and the US drought of 1988 are discussed

Cenozoic plant diversity of Yunnan: A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongjiang Huang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Yunnan in southwestern China is renowned for its high plant diversity. To understand how this modern botanical richness formed, it is critical to investigate the past biodiversity throughout the geological time. In this review, we present a summary on plant diversity, floristics and climates in the Cenozoic of Yunnan and document their changes, by compiling published palaeobotanical sources. Our review demonstrates that thus far a total of 386 fossil species of ferns, gymnosperms and angiosperms belonging to 170 genera within 66 families have been reported from the Cenozoic, particularly the Neogene, of Yunnan. Angiosperms display the highest richness represented by 353 species grouped into 155 genera within 60 families, with Fagaceae, Fabaceae, Lauraceae and Juglandaceae being the most diversified. Most of the families and genera recorded as fossils still occur in Yunnan, but seven genera have disappeared, including Berryophyllum, Cedrelospermum, Cedrus, Palaeocarya, Podocarpium, Sequoia and Wataria. The regional extinction of these genera is commonly referred to an aridification of the dry season associated with Asian monsoon development. Floristic analyses indicate that in the late Miocene, Yunnan had three floristic regions: a northern subtropical floristic region in the northeast, a subtropical floristic region in the east, and a tropical floristic region in the southwest. In the late Pliocene, Yunnan saw two kinds of floristic regions: a subalpine floristic region in the northwest, and two subtropical floristic regions separately in the southwest and the eastern center. These floristic concepts are verified by results from our areal type analyses which suggest that in the Miocene southwestern Yunnan supported the most Pantropic elements, while in the Pliocene southwestern Yunnan had abundant Tropical Asia (Indo–Malaysia type and East Asia and North America disjunct type that were absent from northwestern Yunnan. From the late Miocene to

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Cenozoic North American Drainage Basin Evolution, Sediment Yield, and Accumulation in the Gulf of Mexico Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Galloway, W.; Ganey-Curry, P. E.

2010-12-01

The Cenozoic fill of the Gulf of Mexico basin contains a continuous record of sediment supply from the North American continental interior for the past 65 million years. Regional mapping of unit thickness and paleogeography for 18 depositional episodes defines patterns of shifting entry points of continental fluvial systems and quantifies the total volume of sediment supplied during each episode. Eight fluvio-deltaic depocenters, named for geographic similarities to entry points and drainage basins of modern rivers, are present. From southwest to northeast, they are the Rio Bravo, Rio Grande, Guadalupe, Colorado, Houston-Brazos, Red, Mississippi, and Tennessee axes. Sediment volume was calculated from hand-contoured unit thickness maps compiled from basin-wide well and seismic control. Using a GIS algorithm to sum volumes within polygons bounding interpreted North American river contribution, the total extant volume was then calculated. General compaction factors were used to convert modern volume to quantitative approximations of total grain volume. Grain volume rate of supply for each depositional episode was then calculated. Values vary by more than an order of magnitude. Supply rate has commonly varied by two-fold or more between successive depositional episodes. Sediment supply is a significant, independent variable in development of stratigraphic sequences within the Gulf basin. Paleogeographic maps of the continental interior for eleven Cenozoic time intervals display the evolving and complex interplay of intracontinental tectonism, climate change, and drainage basin evolution. Five tectono-climatic eras are differentiated: Paleocene late Laramide era; early to middle Eocene terminal Laramide era; middle Cenozoic (Late Eocene—Early Miocene) dry, volcanogenic era; middle Neogene (Middle—Late Miocene) arid, extensional era; and late Neogene (Plio—Pleistocene) monsoonal, epeirogenic uplift era. Sediment supply to the GOM reflects the interplay of (1

Potential evapotranspiration trend analysis for different climatic zones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazeer, M.

2012-01-01

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration (ETo) plays a significant role in the study of water resources management. The study was conducted to investigate the change in potential evapotranspiration value during the past three decade in three diverse climatic zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Three Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (Chitral, Peshawar and D. I. Khan) were selected based on their climatic diversity. Thirty years climatic data (1981-2010) obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department, Islamabad and Agriculture Research Institute, Peshawar was used. Potential evapotranspiration was determined for three decades separately, as well as on mean monthly basis. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) technique was used for trend analysis. Results revealed highest ETo in D. I. Khan followed by Peshawar and Chitral. However, in the summer months ETo value was found highest in Chitral as compared to other selected Districts. Trend analysis results showed that decrease in ETo trend was observed in all the selected Districts with the passage of time. It can be concluded that ETo values decreased as compared to past in all the selected Districts without any discrimination of physical geography and location. (author)

The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Ruairidh D; Nouvellet, Pierre; Newman, Chris; Macdonald, David W; Rosell, Frank

2012-09-01

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90-year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide-ranging species, at the slow end of the slow-fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Climate trends in a specific Mediterranean viticultural area between 1950 and 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric Laget

2008-09-01

Significance and impact of study: Climate is a major factor in vine cultivation and in the understanding of viticultural terroirs and wine typicality. The climate trends observed over a 50-year period are discussed in the viticultural context of a Mediterranean region. However, the interaction between climate change and technical progress in viticulture and oenology complicate the analysis over the time frame under consideration.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

Science.gov (United States)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Modes, tempo and spatial variability of Cenozoic cratonic denudation: morphoclimatic constraints from West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Beauvais, Anicet; Chardon, Dominique

2010-05-01

After the onset of Gondwana break-up in the Early Mesozoic, the emerged part of the African plate underwent long Greenhouse effect climatic periods and epeirogeny. The last Greenhouse effect period in the Early Cenozoic and the alternation of wet and dry climatic periods since the Eocene enhanced episodes of rock chemical weathering and laterite production, forming bauxites and ferricretes, interrupted by drier periods of dominantly mechanical denudation, shaping glacis [1]. In Sub-Saharan West Africa, this evolution resulted in pulsate and essentially climatically-forced denudation that has shaped an ubiquitous sequence of five stepped lateritic paleosurfaces that synchronously developed over Cenozoic times. The modes, timing and spatial variability of continental denudation of the region are investigated by combining geomorphologic and geochronological data sets. The geomorphologic data set comprises the altitudinal distribution of the lateritic paleosurfaces relicts and their differential elevation from 42 locations in Sub-Saharan West Africa where the sequence (or part of it) has been documented. The geochronological data set consists in the age ranges of each paleosurface tackled by radiometric 39Ar-40Ar dating of the neoformed oxy-hydroxides (i.e., cryptomelane, K1-2Mn8O16, nH2O, [4]) carried by their laterites at the Tambao reference site, Burkina Faso [1, 3]. Five groups of 39Ar-40Ar ages, ~ 59 - 45 Ma, ~ 29 - 24 Ma, ~ 18 - 11.5 Ma, ~ 7.2 - 5.8 Ma, and ~ 3.4 - 2.9 Ma, characterize periods of chemical weathering whereas the time laps between these groups of ages correspond to episodes of mechanical denudation that reflect physical shaping of the paleosurfaces. For the last 45 Ma, the denudation rate estimates (3 to 8 m Ma-1) are comparable with those derived on shorter time scale (103 to 106 y.) in the same region by the cosmogenic radionuclide method [2]. Combined with the geomorphologic data set, these age ranges allow the visualization of the regional

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Review of cenozoic ooidal ironstones

Science.gov (United States)

van Houten, Franklyn B.

1992-06-01

Cenozoic (Tertiary) ooidal ironstones (COI) in 20 districts (39 deposits) developed between the equatorial zone and 60° N, except for one Eocene district in mid-southern latitude. Stratigraphic distribution. Paleocene OI occur in northern Pakistan, western Siberia, southern Germany, northwestern Venezuela, and northeastern Colombia: Eocene OI in western Siberia, southern Germany, northwestern Romania, central North Africa, central-west Saudi Arabia, southwestern Central Africa, northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, south-central USA, and northwestern Australia; Oligocene OI in northwest and west-central Kazakhstan, central Denmark, and north-central Iran?; Miocene OI in northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and southeastern Malaysia; Pliocene OI in southeastern Ukraine. Geotectonic framework. Ten districts developed in an interior or fractured craton: five along the south-trending Uralian Seaway, and one along the east-trending Northern European Seaway, the south-trending Trans-Saharan Seaway, in or near an early Red Sea embayment, in southeastern Malaysia, and in northwestern Australia. Ten districts lay near a eratonic margin: one along divergent margin and nine along the broad east-trending Caribbean and Tethyan seaways. Almost all COI accumulated during the Paleogene relatively high stand of sea level, especially in Early and Middle Eocene time. As sea level fell gradually in Neogene time COI developed in only three marginal districts (including the giant Pliocene Kerch-Taman deposit in southeastern Ukraine). Sedimentary environment. Almost all of the COI developed in deltaic to shallow marine facies. These are commonly associated with shoaling-upward siliciclastic sequences; a few are in mixed siliciclastic-carbonate sequences. A few COI apparently occurred in fluvial and lacustrine facies; some of these may have been reworked from laterite or from marine ironstones. Sedimentary petrology. Many COI are less than a few tens of centimeters

Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.

Science.gov (United States)

McLane, Sierra C; LeMay, Valerie M; Aitken, Sally N

2011-04-01

Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stap, L. B.; Van De Wal, R. S W; De Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-01-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely

Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

2010-02-15

Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Construction of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr curve for the Cenozoic and Cretaceous: supporting data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koepnick, R.B.; Burke, W.H.; Denison, R.E.; Hetherington, E.A.; Nelson, H.F.; Otto, J.B.; Waite, L.E.

1985-01-01

We present the data used to construct the Cenozoic and Cretaceous portion of the Phanerozoic curve of seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr that had been given in summary form by W.H. Burke and coworkers. All Cenozoic samples (128) and 22 Cretaceous samples are foram-nannofossil oozes and limestones from DSDP cores distributed among 13 sites in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the Caribbean Sea. Non-DSDP Cretaceous samples (126) include limestone, anhydrite and phosphate samples from North America, Europe and Asia. Determination of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr value of seawater at particular times in the past is based on comparison of ratios derived from coeval marine samples from widely separated geographic areas. The general configuration of the Cenozoic and Cretaceous curve appears to be strongly influenced by the history of plate interactions and sea-floor spreading. Specific rises and falls in the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of seawater, however, may be caused by a variety of factors such as variation in lithologic composition of the crust exposed to weathering, configuration and topographic relief of continents, volcanic activity, rate of sea-floor spreading, extent of continental inundation by epeiric seas, and variations in both climate and paleo-oceanographic conditions. Many or all of these factors are probably related to global tectonic processes, yet their combined effect on the temporal variation of seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr can complicate a direct plate-tectonic interpretation for portions of the seawater curve. (Auth.)

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

2007-11-01

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Wet tropical climate in SE Tibet during the Late Eocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorrel, Philippe; Eymard, Ines; Leloup, Philippe-Herve; Maheo, Gweltaz; Olivier, Nicolas; Sterb, Mary; Gourbet, Loraine; Wang, Guocan; Jing, Wu; Lu, Haijian; Li, Haibing; Yadong, Xu; Zhang, Kexin; Cao, Kai; Chevalier, Marie-Luce; Replumaz, Anne

2017-08-10

Cenozoic climate cooling at the advent of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ~33.7 Ma ago, was stamped in the ocean by a series of climatic events albeit the impact of this global climatic transition on terrestrial environments is still fragmentary. Yet archival constraints on Late Eocene atmospheric circulation are scarce in (tropical) monsoonal Asia, and the paucity of terrestrial records hampers a meaningful comparison of the long-term climatic trends between oceanic and continental realms. Here we report new sedimentological data from the Jianchuan basin (SE Tibet) arguing for wetter climatic conditions in monsoonal Asia at ~35.5 Ma almost coevally to the aridification recognized northwards in the Xining basin. We show that the occurrence of flash-flood events in semi-arid to sub-humid palustrine-sublacustrine settings preceded the development of coal-bearing deposits in swampy-like environments, thus paving the way to a more humid climate in SE Tibet ahead from the EOT. We suggest that this moisture redistribution possibly reflects more northern and intensified ITCZ-induced tropical rainfall in monsoonal Asia around 35.5 Ma, in accordance with recent sea-surface temperature reconstructions from equatorial oceanic records. Our findings thus highlight an important period of climatic upheaval in terrestrial Asian environments ~2-4 millions years prior to the EOT.

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

A constrained African craton source for the Cenozoic Numidian Flysch: Implications for the palaeogeography of the western Mediterranean basin

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, M. F. H.; Bodin, S.; Redfern, J.; Irving, D. H. B.

2010-07-01

The provenance of the Numidian Flysch in the western Mediterranean remains a controversial subject which hinders understanding of this regionally widespread depositional system. The Numidian Flysch is a deep marine formation dated as Oligocene to Miocene which outcrops throughout the Maghreb and into Italy. Evidence that is widely used for provenance analysis has not previously been reviewed within the context of the Maghrebian Flysch Basin as a whole. The structural location within the Alpine belt indicates deposition proximal to the African margin, while the uniformity of the Numidian Flysch petrofacies suggests a single cratonic source, in stark contrast to heterolithic and immature flysch formations from the north of the basin. Detrital zircon ages constrain a source region with Pan-African and Eburnian age rocks, unaffected by either Hercynian or Alpine tectonic events, which precludes the European basement blocks to the north of the basin. Palaeocurrent trends which suggest a northern source are unreliable given foreland basin analogues and observed structural complications. An African craton source remains the only viable option once these data are reviewed in their entirety, and the Numidian Flysch therefore represents a major Cenozoic drainage system on the North African margin. Deposition is concurrent with regional Atlas uplift phases, and coincidental with globally cooling climates and high sea levels. The Numidian Flysch is therefore interpreted to represent a highstand passive margin deposit, with timing of deposition controlled primarily by hinterland uplift and climatic fluctuations.

Pleistocene climate change inferred from multi-proxy analyses of a loess-paleosol sequence in China

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Wu, Yi; Qiu, Shifan; Fu, Shuqing; Rao, Zhiguo; Zhu, Zhaoyu

2018-04-01

The aeolian loess blanketing the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is sensitive to climate change in monsoonal East Asia. Here, we present a multi-proxy climatic record from a Pleistocene loess-paleosol sequence from the Lantian Basin on the southern margin of the CLP. The measurements include magnetic susceptibility and related magnetic properties, bulk median grain-size, color reflectance, and the color-inferred hematite versus goethite ratio (Hm/Gt). A long-term aridification and cooling trend during the interval from ca 2.22-0.43 Ma is indicated by two magnetic grain-size proxies, corresponding to the global climatic cooling of the late Cenozoic. In addition, at least four intervals of climatic extremes are evident in the record of Hm/Gt ratio: at 1.71-1.65 Ma, 1.26-1.24 Ma, 0.94-0.86 Ma, and 0.62-0.48 Ma. These intervals are characterized by distinct regional climates, which contrast with the global climatic conditions represented in marine sediments. For example, a relatively arid climate is documented from 1.71 to 1.65 Ma, which was rapidly succeeded by a relatively humid climate which is associated with the earliest hominin (with an age of ca 1.63 Ma) in the Lantian Basin.

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition in the Central Mediterranean. Geologica Ultraiectina (326)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mourik, A.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304849383

2010-01-01

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~15-13.7 Ma) is one of the major steps in Cenozoic climate evolution. The rapid expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.9 – 13.7 Ma caused important climate changes on a global scale. The aim of this PhD research has been to study the effects of the

New insights into the distribution and evolution of the Cenozoic Tan-Lu Fault Zone in the Liaohe sub-basin of the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China

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Huang, Lei; Liu, Chi-yang; Xu, Chang-gui; Wu, Kui; Wang, Guang-yuan; Jia, Nan

2018-01-01

As the largest strike-slip fault system in eastern China, the northeast-trending Tan-Lu Fault Zone (TLFZ) is a significant tectonic element contributing to the Mesozoic-Cenozoic regional geologic evolution of eastern Asia, as well as to the formation of ore deposits and oilfields. Because of the paucity of data, its distribution and evolutionary history in the offshore Liaohe sub-basin of the northern Bohai Bay Basin (BBB) are still poorly understood. Investigations of the strike-slip fault system in the western portion of the offshore Liaohe sub-basin via new seismic data provide us with new insights into the characteristics of the Cenozoic TLFZ. Results of this study show that Cenozoic dextral strike-slip faults occurred near the center of the Liaoxi graben in the offshore Liaohe sub-basin; these strike-slip faults connect with their counterparts to the north, the western part of the onshore Liaohe sub-basin, and have similar characteristics to those in other areas of the BBB in terms of kinematics, evolutionary history, and distribution; consequently, these faults are considered as the western branch of the TLFZ. All strike-slip faults within the Liaoxi graben merge at depth with a central subvertical basement fault induced by the reactivation of a pre-existing strike-slip basement fault, the pre-Cenozoic TLFZ. Data suggest that the TLFZ across the whole Liaohe sub-basin comprises two branches and that the Cenozoic distribution of this system was inherited from the pre-Cenozoic TLFZ. This characteristic distribution might be possessed by the whole TLFZ, thus the new understandings about the distribution and evolutionary model of the TLFZ in this study can be inferred in many research fields along the whole fault zone, such as regional geology, ore deposits, petroleum exploration and earthquake hazard.

Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing

2013-01-01

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036  yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

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Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

2004-03-29

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Climate change and transnational corporations. Analysis and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

In Economic and Social Council resolution 1989/25, the Council requested an analytic study of the main sectors of activity that have adverse effects on environmental preservation and the factors that determine the allocation of activities between developed and developing countries. The present report, entitled Climate Change and Transnational Corporations: Analysis and Trends, is in response to that request. The problem of global warming and the dangers it presents to global survival are being given high priority by the United Nations. Discussions are under way leading to a convention on global climate change under the auspices of United Nations intergovernmental bodies. The study was designed as a contribution to that process. It focuses on six transnational energy-producing and energy-consuming industrial sectors, in which corporate practices have a direct and major impact on the problems associated with global climate change. The sectors are fossil fuel production, transportation, electricity-generation, energy-intensive metals production, chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting chemicals, and inorganic nitrogen fertilizers. The study explores the relative differential impacts between industrialized and developing countries of each sector, and asks how each sector would have to be restructured in order to limit global climate change and ozone depletion. It concludes that major changes in the technical processes and investment patterns of the transnational corporations in those sectors would be necessary if catastrophic environmental changes are to be avoided

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Role of pre-existing structures in controlling the Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the eastern Tibetan plateau: New insights from analogue experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ming; Yin, An; Yan, Danping; Ren, Hongyu; Mu, Hongxu; Zhu, Lutao; Qiu, Liang

2018-06-01

Pre-existing weakness due to repeated tectonic, metamorphic, and magmatic events is a fundamental feature of the continental lithosphere on Earth. Because of this, continental deformation results from a combined effect of boundary conditions imposed by plate tectonic processes and heterogeneous and anisotropic mechanical strength inherited from protracted continental evolution. In this study, we assess how this interaction may have controlled the Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan plateau during the India-Asia collision. Specifically, we use analogue models to evaluate how the pre-Cenozoic structures may have controlled the location, orientation, and kinematics of the northwest-striking Xianshuihe and northeast-striking Longmen Shan fault zones, the two most dominant Cenozoic structures in eastern Tibet. Our best model indicates that the correct location, trend, and kinematics of the two fault systems can only be generated and maintained if the following conditions are met: (1) the northern part of the Songpan-Ganzi terrane in eastern Tibet has a strong basement whereas its southern part has a weak basement, (2) the northern strong basement consists of two pieces bounded by a crustal-scale weak zone that is expressed by the Triassic development of a northwest-trending antiform exposing middle and lower crustal rocks, and (3) the region was under persistent northeast-southwest compression since ∼35 Ma. Our model makes correct prediction on the sequence of deformation in eastern Tibet; the Longmen Shan right-slip transpressional zone was initiated first as an instantaneous response to the northeast-southwest compression, which is followed by the formation of the Xianshuihe fault about a half way after the exertion of northeast-southwest shortening in the model. The success of our model highlights the importance of pre-existing weakness, a key factor that has been largely neglected in the current geodynamic models of continental deformation.

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

2018-01-01

The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

Synchronous turnover of flora, fauna, and climate at the Eocene–Oligocene Boundary in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jimin; Ni, Xijun; Bi, Shundong; Wu, Wenyu; Ye, Jie; Meng, Jin; Windley, Brian F.

2014-01-01

The Eocene–Oligocene Boundary (~34 million years ago) marks one of the largest extinctions of marine invertebrates in the world oceans and of mammalian fauna in Europe and Asia in the Cenozoic era. A shift to a cooler climate across this boundary has been suggested as the cause of this extinction in the marine environment, but there is no manifold evidence for a synchronous turnover of flora, fauna and climate at the Eocene–Oligocene Boundary in a single terrestrial site in Asia to support this hypothesis. Here we report new data of magnetostratigraphy, pollen and climatic proxies in the Asian interior across the Eocene–Oligocene Boundary; our results show that climate change forced a turnover of flora and fauna, suggesting there was a change from large-size perissodactyl-dominant fauna in forests under a warm-temperate climate to small rodent/lagomorph-dominant fauna in forest-steppe in a dry-temperate climate across the Eocene–Oligocene Boundary. These data provide a new terrestrial record for this significant Cenozoic environmental event. PMID:25501388

Synchronous turnover of flora, fauna, and climate at the Eocene-Oligocene Boundary in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jimin; Ni, Xijun; Bi, Shundong; Wu, Wenyu; Ye, Jie; Meng, Jin; Windley, Brian F

2014-12-12

The Eocene-Oligocene Boundary (~34 million years ago) marks one of the largest extinctions of marine invertebrates in the world oceans and of mammalian fauna in Europe and Asia in the Cenozoic era. A shift to a cooler climate across this boundary has been suggested as the cause of this extinction in the marine environment, but there is no manifold evidence for a synchronous turnover of flora, fauna and climate at the Eocene-Oligocene Boundary in a single terrestrial site in Asia to support this hypothesis. Here we report new data of magnetostratigraphy, pollen and climatic proxies in the Asian interior across the Eocene-Oligocene Boundary; our results show that climate change forced a turnover of flora and fauna, suggesting there was a change from large-size perissodactyl-dominant fauna in forests under a warm-temperate climate to small rodent/lagomorph-dominant fauna in forest-steppe in a dry-temperate climate across the Eocene-Oligocene Boundary. These data provide a new terrestrial record for this significant Cenozoic environmental event.

Climate change trends and environmental impacts in the Makonde Communal Lands, Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishumael Sango

2015-07-01

Full Text Available During the last century, climate has increasingly become variable and changeable, with significant deviations from the observed normal averages, which often leads to disruptive consequences to ecosystems and livelihoods. Climate change induced environmental challenges are viewed to be particularly severe to economically challenged tropical societies including the Zimbabwean rural communities. We sought to determine local level climate change trends and associated biophysical implications in the Makonde Communal Lands of Zimbabwe. Our findings suggest that there has been significant climate change in the Makonde Communal Lands since 1962. The climate change observed has induced the deterioration of ecosystem productivity, diversity and services, to the detriment of human livelihoods. We provide insights into how to better understand local level dynamics between climate change and local ecosystem goods and services as the basis of livelihood in marginalised rural communities. Among the key reasons for concern about impacts of anthropogenic activities on climate is the fact that changing climate has direct impacts on the biophysical world, which in turn is a vital asset for human livelihoods, economies and general well-being.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2009-10-15

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

2009-01-01

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. U. Hasson

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l. for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012 and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012. For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field- significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012, we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September, which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July. Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012, most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Lucarini, Valerio

2017-05-01

Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961-2012). For this, a Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961-2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in

History of oceanic front development in the New Zealand sector of the Southern Ocean during the Cenozoic: a synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, C.S.; Cooke, P.J.

2001-01-01

subantarctic belt. In the Early-early Middle Miocene (25-15 Ma), warm subtropical waters expanded southwards into the northern NZSSO, possibly associated with reduced ice volume on East Antarctica but particularly with restriction of the Indonesian gateway and redirection of intensified warm surface flows southwards into the Tasman Sea, as well as complete opening of the Drake gateway by 23 Ma allowing more complete decoupling of cool circum-Antarctic flow from the subtropical waters. During the late Middle-Late Miocene (15-5 Ma), both the STF and SAF proper were established in their present relative positions across and about the Campbell Plateau, respectively, accompanying renewed ice buildup on East Antarctica and formation of a permanent ice sheet on West Antarctica, as well as generally more expansive and intensified circum-Antarctic flow. The ultimate control on the history of oceanic front development in the NZSSO has been plate tectonics through its influence on the paleogeographic changes of the Australian-New Zealand-Antarctic continents and their intervening oceanic basins, the timing of opening and closing of critical seaways, the potential for submarine ridges and plateaus to exert some bathymetric control on the location of fronts, and the evolving ice budget on the Antarctic continent. The broad trends of the Cenozoic climate curve for New Zealand deduced from fossil evidence in the uplifted marine sedimentary record correspond well to the principal paleoceanographic events controlling the evolution and migration of the oceanic fronts in the NZSSO. (author). 104 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs

Cenozoic structures and the tectonic evolution of the eastern North Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, O.R.; Nielsen, S.B.; Egholm, D.L.

2011-01-01

Abundant seismic sections and well data from the Cenozoic succession in the eastern North Sea area generally reveal normal faulting, salt tectonics and localized tectonic inversion. However, inferences on the Cenozoic dynamic evolution of the region require thorough analysis of interactions between...... or cover tectonism took place. Our objectives are thus 1) to analyze the interaction between basement and cover structures, and if possible 2) to relate the structures to the regional tectonic evolution. The Zechstein evaporites pinch out onto the Ringkøbing-Fyn High, which in the eastern North Sea...... influencede.g. Miocene deposition and controlled the generation of second order faults. The latter detached along the top Chalk Group due to the topography generated during faulting, i.e. they are second order detachment surfaces. We conclude that the regional tectonic significance of the Cenozoic structures...

Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Granath, Gustaf; Limpens, Juul; Posch, Maximilian; Mücher, Sander; de Vries, Wim

2014-04-01

To quantify potential nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on peatland carbon (C) uptake, we explored temporal and spatial trends in N deposition and climate impacts on the production of the key peat forming functional group (Sphagnum mosses) across European peatlands for the period 1900-2050. Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900 and 1950 N deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position. Between 1950 and 2000 N deposition depressed production between 0 and 25% relative to 1900, particularly in temperate regions. Future scenarios indicate this trend will continue and become more pronounced with climate warming. At the European scale, the consequences for Sphagnum net C-uptake remained small relative to 1900 due to the low peatland cover in high-N areas. The predicted impacts of likely changes in N deposition on Sphagnum productivity appeared to be less than those of climate. Nevertheless, current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong-Suk; Jain, Shaleen

2011-01-01

Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

The role of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) on Ancient Climates and Implications for Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, M.

2017-12-01

Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to "What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?" Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth's surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present

Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia

Science.gov (United States)

Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane

2014-01-01

Multi-decadal records of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) collected at a set of lighthouse stations are used to examine climatic variability and trends in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Particular attention is given to relations between the water property anomalies and variability in coastal freshwater discharge and alongshore wind stress. Within the Strait of Georgia, SSS anomalies are closely related to Fraser River discharge anomalies. Along the Pacific coast, anomalies in alongshore wind stress and freshwater runoff have the characteristics of white noise processes. A cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that SST and SSS variability along the open west coast is consistent with the response of a first-order autoregressive process driven by anomalous alongshore wind stress and coastal freshwater discharge, respectively. Thus climatic variability of SST and SSS along the Pacific coast of British Columbia occurs, in part, through the integration of noisy atmospheric forcing and coastal precipitation. Seasonal correlations show that SST is strongly related to wind stress during winter and fall. Conversely, SSS is relatively weakly related to the alongshore wind during spring, suggesting that variability in upwelling makes only a modest contribution to variability of SSS in the nearshore environment. Consistent with previous studies, secular trends indicate long-term warming and freshening of the coastal ocean at most stations. It is shown that long-term SST trends can be obscured by the pronounced climatic variability of these waters, requiring that time series extend for several decades to be reliably detected.

East African Cenozoic vegetation history.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Hans Peter

2017-11-01

The modern vegetation of East Africa is a complex mosaic of rainforest patches; small islands of tropic-alpine vegetation; extensive savannas, ranging from almost pure grassland to wooded savannas; thickets; and montane grassland and forest. Here I trace the evolution of these vegetation types through the Cenozoic. Paleogene East Africa was most likely geomorphologically subdued and, as the few Eocene fossil sites suggest, a woodland in a seasonal climate. Woodland rather than rainforest may well have been the regional vegetation. Mountain building started with the Oligocene trap lava flows in Ethiopia, on which rainforest developed, with little evidence of grass and none of montane forests. The uplift of the East African Plateau took place during the middle Miocene. Fossil sites indicate the presence of rainforest, montane forest and thicket, and wooded grassland, often in close juxtaposition, from 17 to 10 Ma. By 10 Ma, marine deposits indicate extensive grassland in the region and isotope analysis indicates that this was a C 3 grassland. In the later Miocene rifting, first of the western Albertine Rift and then of the eastern Gregory Rift, added to the complexity of the environment. The building of the high strato-volcanos during the later Mio-Pliocene added environments suitable for tropic-alpine vegetation. During this time, the C 3 grassland was replaced by C 4 savannas, although overall the extent of grassland was reduced from the mid-Miocene high to the current low level. Lake-level fluctuations during the Quaternary indicate substantial variation in rainfall, presumably as a result of movements in the intertropical convergence zone and the Congo air boundary, but the impact of these fluctuations on the vegetation is still speculative. I argue that, overall, there was an increase in the complexity of East African vegetation complexity during the Neogene, largely as a result of orogeny. The impact of Quaternary climatic fluctuation is still poorly understood

Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koutsouris, A J; Destouni, G; Jarsjoe, J; Lyon, S W

2010-01-01

Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

Late Cenozoic climate and the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras worldwide

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eiserhardt, W.L.; Borchsenius, F.; Sandel, B.; Kissling, W.D.; Svenning, J.-C.

2015-01-01

Aim Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate

Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, R.G.; Gregory, R.T.; Brown, G.F.

2016-01-01

The Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia cover about 90,000 km2, one of the largest areas of alkali olivine basalt in the world. These volcanic rocks are in 13 separate fields near the eastern coast of the Red Sea and in the western Arabian Peninsula highlands from Syria southward to the Yemen Arab Republic.

Evidence for subduction-related magmatism during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic in Myanmar

Science.gov (United States)

Sevastjanova, Inga; Sagi, David Adam; Webb, Peter; Masterton, Sheona; Hill, Catherine; Davies, Clare

2017-04-01

Myanmar's complex geological history, numerous controversies around its tectonic evolution and the presence of prospective hydrocarbon basins make it a key area of interest for geologists. Understanding whether a passive or an active margin existed in the region during the Cenozoic is particularly important for the production of accurate basin models; active Cenozoic subduction would imply that hydrocarbon basins in the forearc experienced extension due to slab rollback. The geology of Myanmar was influenced by the regional tectonics associated with the Cretaceous and Cenozoic closure of the Neotethys Ocean. During this time, India travelled rapidly from Gondwana to Asia at speeds up to 20 cm/yr. To accommodate the north-eastward motion of India, the Neotethys Ocean was consumed at the subduction zone along the southern margin of Eurasia. Based on our Global Plate Model, this subduction zone can reasonably be expected to extend for the entire width of the Neotethys Ocean as far as Myanmar and Southeast Asia at their eastern extent. Moreover, a) Cretaceous volcanism onshore Myanmar, b) the middle Cenozoic arc-related extension in the Present Day eastern Andaman Sea and c) the late Cenozoic uplift of the Indo-Burman Ranges are all contemporaneous with the subduction ages predicted by the global plate motions. However, because of the geological complexity of the area, additional evidence would augment interpretations that are based on structural data. In an attempt to reduce the uncertainty in the existing interpretations, we have compiled published zircon geochronological data from detrital and igneous rocks in the region. We have used published zircon U-Pb ages and, where available, published Hf isotope data and CL images (core/rim) in order to distinguish 'juvenile' mantle-derived zircons from those of reworked crustal origin. The compilation shows that Upper Cretaceous and Cenozoic zircons, which are interpreted to have a volcanic provenance, are common across the

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

On the origin and distribution of magnolias: Tectonics, DNA and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hebda, R. J.; Irving, E.

Extant magnolias have a classic disjunct distribution in southeast Asia and in the Americas between Canada and Brazil, and nowhere in between. Of the 17 sections (about 210 species) in two subgenera, only two, Tulipastrum and Rhytidospermum, are truly disjunct. Molecular analyses reveal that several North American species are basal forms suggesting that magnolias originated in North America, as indicated by their fossil record. We recognize four elements in their evolution. (1) Ancestral magnolias originated in the Late Cretaceous of North America in high mid-latitudes (45°-60°N) at low altitudes in a greenhouse climate. (2) During the exceptionally warm climate of the Eocene, magnolias spread eastwards, via the Disko Island and Thulean isthmuses, first to Europe, and then across Asia, still at low altitudes and high mid-latitudes. (3) With mid-Cenozoic global cooling, they shifted to lower mid-latitudes (30°-45°N), becoming extinct in Europe and southern Siberia, dividing a once continuous distribution into two, centred in eastern Asia and in North America. (4) In the late Cenozoic, as ice-house conditions developed, magnolias migrated southward from both centres into moist warm temperate upland sites in the newly uplifted mountains ranges of South and Central America, southeast Asia, and the High Archipelago, where they diversified. Thus the late Cenozoic evolution of magnolias is characterized by impoverishment of northern and diversification of southern species, the latter being driven by a combination of high relief and climate oscillations, and neither of the present centers of diversity is the center of origin. Disjunction at the generic level and within section Tulipastrum likely occurred as part of the general mid-Cenozoic southward displacement assisted by the development of north-south water barriers, especially the Turgai Strait across western Siberia. Disjunction in section Rhytidospermum could be Neogene.

Late Cenozoic fluvial successions in northern and western India: an overview and synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, R.; Kumar, R.; Sinha, S.; Tandon, S. K.; Gibling, M. R.

2007-11-01

Late Cenozoic fluvial successions are widespread in India. They include the deposits of the Siwalik basin which represent the accumulations of the ancient river systems of the Himalayan foreland basin. Palaeomagnetic studies reveal that fluvial architecture and styles of deposition were controlled by Himalayan tectonics as well as by major climatic fluctuations during the long (∼13 Ma) span of formation. The Indo-Gangetic plains form the world's most extensive Quaternary alluvial plains, and display spatially variable controls on sedimentation: Himalayan tectonics in the frontal parts, climate in the middle reaches, and eustasy in the lower reaches close to the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta. Climatic effects were mediated by strong fluctuations in the SW Indian Monsoon, and Himalayan rivers occupy deep valleys in the western Ganga plains where stream power is high, cut in part during early Holocene monsoon intensification; the broad interfluves record the simultaneous aggradation of plains-fed rivers since ∼100 ka. The eastward increase in precipitation across the Ganga Plains results in rivers with low stream power and a very high sediment flux, resulting in an aggradational mode and little incision. The river deposits of semi-arid to arid western India form important archives of Quaternary climate change through their intercalation with the eolian deposits of the Thar Desert. Although the synthesis documents strong variability-both spatial and temporal-in fluvial stratigraphy, climatic events such as the decline in precipitation during the Last Glacial Maximum and monsoon intensification in the early Holocene have influenced fluvial dynamics throughout the region.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-12-23

For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi. Bian

2018-01-01

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Flousek

Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

Cenozoic mountain building on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Lease, Richard O.

2014-01-01

Northeastern Tibetan Plateau growth illuminates the kinematics, geodynamics, and climatic consequences of large-scale orogenesis, yet only recently have data become available to outline the spatiotemporal pattern and rates of this growth. I review the tectonic history of range growth across the plateau margin north of the Kunlun fault (35°–40°N) and east of the Qaidam basin (98°–107°E), synthesizing records from fault-bounded mountain ranges and adjacent sedimentary basins. Deformation began in Eocene time shortly after India-Asia collision, but the northeastern orogen boundary has largely remained stationary since this time. Widespread middle Miocene–Holocene range growth is portrayed by accelerated deformation, uplift, erosion, and deposition across northeastern Tibet. The extent of deformation, however, only expanded ~150 km outward to the north and east and ~150 km laterally to the west. A middle Miocene reorganization of deformation characterized by shortening at various orientations heralds the onset of the modern kinematic regime where shortening is coupled to strike slip. This regime is responsible for the majority of Cenozoic crustal shortening and thickening and the development of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

2017-11-01

In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

Early cenozoic differentiation of polar marine faunas.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J Alistair Crame

Full Text Available The widespread assumption that the origin of polar marine faunas is linked to the onset of major global cooling in the Late Eocene-Early Oligocene is being increasingly challenged. The Antarctic fossil record in particular is suggesting that some modern Southern Ocean taxa may have Early Eocene or even Paleocene origins, i.e. well within the Early Cenozoic greenhouse world. A global analysis of one of the largest marine clades at the present day, the Neogastropoda, indicates that not only is there a decrease in the number of species from the tropics to the poles but also a decrease in the evenness of their distribution. A small number of neogastropod families with predominantly generalist trophic strategies at both poles points to the key role of seasonality in structuring the highest latitude marine assemblages. A distinct latitudinal gradient in seasonality is temperature-invariant and would have operated through periods of global warmth such as the Early Cenozoic. To test this concept a second global analysis was undertaken of earliest Cenozoic (Paleocene neogastropods and this does indeed show a certain degree of faunal differentiation at both poles. The Buccinidae, s.l. is especially well developed at this time, and this is a major generalist taxon at the present day. There is an element of asymmetry associated with this development of Paleocene polar faunas in that those in the south are more strongly differentiated than their northern counterparts; this can in turn be linked to the already substantial isolation of the southern high latitudes. The key role of seasonality in the formation of polar marine faunas has implications for contemporary ecosystem structure and stability.

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, T.G.; Richardson, A.D.; McGuire, K.J.

2009-01-01

This study reviewed previous and projected changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States. While climatic warming and increases in precipitation, snow, and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last 100 years, the most pronounced changes have occurred since 1970. However, trends in climatic and hydrological variables have differed both spatially and temporally in different regions. Decadal-scale climatic variations have also altered long-term trends. Climate models predict continued increases in both temperature and precipitation over the next century. Increases in growing season length are expected to increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of droughts. An increase in the frequency of droughts is also expected to increase the risk of fires and other disturbances. Forest productivity and maple syrup production will be impacted, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration will be diminished. It was concluded that climate and hydrological changes will have a profound impact on forest structure, composition and ecological functioning. 131 refs., 5 figs

Malaria incidence trends and their association with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe, 2005-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Shamu, Shepherd; Sartorius, Benn; Mukaratirwa, Samson

2017-09-30

Malaria is a public health problem in Zimbabwe. Although many studies have indicated that climate change may influence the distribution of malaria, there is paucity of information on its trends and association with climatic variables in Zimbabwe. To address this shortfall, the trends of malaria incidence and its interaction with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe for the period January 2005 to April 2015 was assessed. Retrospective data analysis of reported cases of malaria in three selected Gwanda district rural wards (Buvuma, Ntalale and Selonga) was carried out. Data on malaria cases was collected from the district health information system and ward clinics while data on precipitation and temperature were obtained from the climate hazards group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) database and the moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data, respectively. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNLM) were used to determine the temporal lagged association between monthly malaria incidence and monthly climatic variables. There were 246 confirmed malaria cases in the three wards with a mean incidence of 0.16/1000 population/month. The majority of malaria cases (95%) occurred in the > 5 years age category. The results showed no correlation between trends of clinical malaria (unconfirmed) and confirmed malaria cases in all the three study wards. There was a significant association between malaria incidence and the climatic variables in Buvuma and Selonga wards at specific lag periods. In Ntalale ward, only precipitation (1- and 3-month lag) and mean temperature (1- and 2-month lag) were significantly associated with incidence at specific lag periods (p climatic conditions in the 1-4 month period prior. As the period of high malaria risk is associated with precipitation and temperature at 1-4 month prior in a seasonal cycle, intensifying malaria control activities over this period will likely contribute to lowering

Meso-Cenozoic tectonic evolution and uranium potential evaluations of basins in Beishan-Gansu corridor region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Qingyin; Chen Zuyi; Liu Hongxu; Yu Jinshui

2006-01-01

Beishan-Gansu Corridor region is located at the intersection of the plates of Tarim, North China, Kazakhstan, Siberia and Qaidam. During the Meso-Cenozoic, the region experienced movements of Indo-sinian, Yanshanian, Sichuanian, North China, Himalayan and Neotectonic, and over 20 medium-small size superimposed continental basins were formed. On the basis of analyzing the tectonic stress field, sediment-filling and structure-deformation; the general trending of tectonic evolution in the Meso-Cenozoic is summarized as three-time compressional uplifting and two-time extensional down-faulting. The different evolution of basins under the above mentioned setting can be divided into six stages according to characteristics of filled sediment. The sand bodies developed in down-faulted basins are favorable for uranium ore-formation as they are formed under humid paleoclimates, and rich in reducing matter. Therefore, the Lower-Middle Jurassic is selected as the main target horizon for sandstone-hosted uranium deposit, and the Lower Cretaceous as the minor one. Although the tectonic reactivation of the target horizon after its deposition was generally strong, the slopes formed in some basins could be favorable for the infiltration of uranium-and oxygen-bearing groundwater into sand bodies and form uranium deposits. According to the favorable sand bodies and tectonic reactivation, the northern parts of Chaoshui and Bayingobi basins are regarded as potential regions which are worthy of further exploration. (authors)

Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

2015-05-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Sediment load trends in the Magdalena River basin (1980-2010): Anthropogenic and climate-induced causes

Science.gov (United States)

Restrepo, Juan D.; Escobar, Heber A.

2018-02-01

The Colombian Andes and its main river basin, the Magdalena, have witnessed dramatic changes in land cover and further forest loss during the last three decades. For the Magdalena River, human activities appear to have played a more prominent role compared to rainfall (climate change) to mobilize sediment. However, environmental authorities in Colombia argue that climate change is the main trigger of erosion and floods experienced during the last decade. Here we present the first regional exercise addressing the following: (1) what are the observed trends of sediment load in the northern Andes during the last three decades? and (2) are sediment load trends in agreement with tendencies in land use change and climate (e.g., precipitation)? We perform Mann-Kendall tests on sediment load series for 21 main tributary systems during the 1980-2010 period. These gauging stations represent 77% of the whole Magdalena basin area. The last decade has been a period of increased pulses in sediment transport as seen by the statistical significant trends in load. Overall, six subcatchments, representing 55% of the analyzed Magdalena basin area, have witnessed increasing trends in sediment load. Also, some major tributaries have experienced changes in their interannual mean sediment flux during the mid- 1990s and 2005. Further analysis of land cover change (e.g., deforestation) indicates that the basin has undergone considerable change. Forest cover decreased by 40% over the period of study, while the area under agriculture and pasture cover (agricultural lands 1 and 2) increased by 65%. The highest peak of forest loss on record in the Magdalena basin, 5106 km2 or 24% of the combined deforestation in Colombia, occurred during the 2005-2010 period. In contrast, Mann-Kendall tests on rainfall series for 61 stations reveal that precipitation shows no regional signs of increasing trends. Also, increasing trends in sediment load match quite well with the marked increase in forest

The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrelli, Roberta; Peterson, Sierra

2007-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO 2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

Science.gov (United States)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Change: Past Trends and Challenges for the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Marlon, J. R.; Mitchell, R.

2009-12-01

Interdisciplinary research is crucial to understanding complex and urgent environmental problems, particularly climate change. Universities are increasingly hosting trans-, multi-, and inter-disciplinary workshops and conferences and developing innovative interdisciplinary training programs (e.g., NSF’s IGERT program) to foster such research. Yet, much doctoral training remains highly disciplinary with very little evidence of graduate training producing transformative research that bridges the natural/social-science divide. Indeed, strong cultural and institutional obstacles often deter or preclude doctoral students from conducting such research. Here we analyze the past three decades of climate-change related dissertation abstracts to assess the balance between disciplinary and interdisciplinary scholarship among young climate change scholars. We analyze trends in the number of dissertations in natural vs. social science disciplines and code the abstracts of over 500 recent dissertations to assess how many dissertations reference one or more disciplines beyond the PhD-granting one. This research is sponsored by the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS).

Simultaneous analysis of climatic trends in multiple variables: an example of application of multivariate statistical methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Huth, Radan; Pokorná, Lucie

2005-01-01

Roč. 25, - (2005), s. 469-484 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA3017301 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climatic trends * trend consistency * principal component analysis * cluster analysis * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.622, year: 2005

Southwestern Region climate change trends and forest planning: A guide for addressing climate change in forest plan revision on southwestern National Forests and Grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Richard Periman; Christine Dawe; Bryce Rickel; Amy Unthank; Champe Green; Roy Jemison; Kurt Nelson; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

Climate scientists agree that the earth is undergoing a warming trend, and that human-caused elevations in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are among the causes of global temperature increases. The observed concentrations of these greenhouse gases are projected to increase. Climate change may intensify the risk of...

Urban partnerships in low-carbon development: Opportunities and challenges of an emerging trend in global climate politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Beermann

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This study explores the linkages between two recent trends in global climate governance. The first trend is the growing focus on cities in the multi-level governance of climate change. Whereas international climate change negotiations often end in deadlock, many urban centers across the world are taking the lead. Industrialized cities from the Global North and increasingly cities from the emerging Southern economies are experimenting with innovative and ambitious programs to reduce their local carbon footprints. A second trend is the expan¬ding urban North-South cooperation in the area of low-carbon development. This cooperation takes various forms, such as city twinning, transnational municipal networks and trans-local development cooperation. A key target of these initiatives is to develop joint projects and exchange knowledge to foster low-carbon development pathways. This study analyzes the conditions of success and failure in selected Indo-German urban low-carbon partnerships with a particular focus on institutional arrangements. The paper presents evidence from three initiatives and argues that successful trans-local cooperation depends largely on the interplay between institutional forms and the development of social capital. Building on these findings, the paper discusses what lessons may be drawn from the emergence of urban North-South cooperation for the future development of global climate governance.

Spatio-temporal trends of nitrogen deposition and climate effects on Sphagnum productivity in European peatlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granath, Gustaf; Limpens, Juul; Posch, Maximilian; Mücher, Sander; Vries, Wim de

2014-01-01

To quantify potential nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on peatland carbon (C) uptake, we explored temporal and spatial trends in N deposition and climate impacts on the production of the key peat forming functional group (Sphagnum mosses) across European peatlands for the period 1900–2050. Using a modelling approach we estimated that between 1900 and 1950 N deposition impacts remained limited irrespective of geographical position. Between 1950 and 2000 N deposition depressed production between 0 and 25% relative to 1900, particularly in temperate regions. Future scenarios indicate this trend will continue and become more pronounced with climate warming. At the European scale, the consequences for Sphagnum net C-uptake remained small relative to 1900 due to the low peatland cover in high-N areas. The predicted impacts of likely changes in N deposition on Sphagnum productivity appeared to be less than those of climate. Nevertheless, current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate. - Highlights: • We model the effect of N deposition combined with climate on production of Sphagnum between 1900 and 2050. • Spatially explicit projections are indicated on an updated European peatland distribution map. • Results stress the vulnerability of temperate Sphagnum peatlands to current and future N deposition. • Future impacts of N deposition on Sphagnum productivity likely depend more on climate change than on N deposition rate. - Temperate Sphagnum peatlands are vulnerable to current and future N deposition and current critical loads for peatlands are likely to hold under a future climate

Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

2008-01-01

In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

Linear trend and climate response of five-needle pines in the western United States related to treeline proximity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kipfmueller, K.F. [Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept. of Geography; Salzer, M.W. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research

2010-01-15

This study investigated sixty-six 5-needle pine growth chronologies from 1896 to their end years in order to identify potential patterns related to linear trends in ring width. Individual chronology responses to climate were also evaluated by comparing the chronologies with seasonal temperature and precipitation data from 1896 to the present date. Chronologies exhibiting similar patterns of climate response were grouped in order to examine the role of treeline proximity on climate-growth relationships. Ring width measurements for pine sites located in the western United States were obtained from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Growth indices were compared among all sites in order to assess the relative strength of common signals with increasing distance. Pearson correlations were used to calculate linear trends for each chronology. A cluster analysis of climate response patterns indicated that most chronologies positively associated with temperatures were located near upper treeline and contained significant positive linear trends. The study suggested that 5-needle pine treeline chronologies may be used as predictors in temperature reconstructions. However, care must be taken to determine that collection sites have not been impacted by disturbances such as fire or insect outbreaks. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-05-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

Late Cenozoic faulting and the stress state in the south-eastern segment of the Siberian platform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Sankov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We have studied the structural geology and geomorphology of the fault zones in the junction area of the Angara-Lena uplift and the Predbaikalsky trough. We have analyzed faults and folds and reconstructed paleostresses for this junction area named the Irkutsk amphitheatre. Our study shows that syn-fold (Middle Paleozoic faults include thrusts, reverse faults and strike-slip faults with reverse components, that occurred due to compression from the neighbouring folded region. Recently, contrary to compression, faulting took place under the conditions of extension of the sedimentary cover: most of these recent faults have been classified as normal faults. In the Late Cenozoic, the platform cover was subjected to brittle and partly plicative deformation due to the NW–SE-trending extension that is most clearly observed in the adjacent Baikal rift. Thus, the divergent boundary between the Siberian block of the North Eurasian plate and the Transbaikalia block of the Amur plate is a zone of dynamic influence, which occupies the area considerably exceeding the mountainous region on the Siberian platform. Important factors of faulting are differentiated vertical movements of the blocks comprising the platform. Such vertical movements might have been related to displacements of brine volumes. In the Late Cenozoic basins, movements along separate faults took place in the Late Pleistocene – Holocene.

U-Pb zircon geochronology of the Paleogene - Neogene volcanism in the NW Anatolia: Its implications for the Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the Aegean

Science.gov (United States)

Ersoy, E. Yalçın; Akal, Cüneyt; Genç, Ş. Can; Candan, Osman; Palmer, Martin R.; Prelević, Dejan; Uysal, İbrahim; Mertz-Kraus, Regina

2017-10-01

The northern Aegean region was shaped by subduction, obduction, collision, and post-collisional extension processes. Two areas in this region, the Rhodope-Thrace-Biga Peninsula to the west and Armutlu-Almacık-Nallıhan (the Central Sakarya) to the east, are characterized by extensive Eocene to Miocene post-collisional magmatic associations. We suggest that comparison of the Cenozoic magmatic events of these two regions may provide insights into the Late Mesozoic to Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Aegean. With this aim, we present an improved Cenozoic stratigraphy of the Biga Peninsula derived from a new comprehensive set of U-Pb zircon age data obtained from the Eocene to Miocene volcanic units in the region. The compiled radiometric age data show that calc-alkaline volcanic activity occurred at 43-15 Ma in the Biga Peninsula, 43-17 Ma in the Rhodope and Thrace regions, and 53-38 Ma in the Armutlu-Almacık-Nallıhan region, which are slightly overlapping. We discuss the possible cause for the distinct Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the eastern and western parts of the region, and propose that the Rhodope, Thrace and Biga regions in the north Aegean share the same Late Mesozoic to Cenozoic geodynamic evolution, which is consistent with continuous subduction, crustal accretion, southwestward trench migration and accompanying extension; all preceded by the Late Cretaceous - Paleocene collision along the Vardar suture zone. In contrast, the Armutlu-Almacık-Nallıhan region was shaped by slab break-off and related processes following the Late Cretaceous - Paleocene collision along the İzmir-Ankara suture zone. The eastern and western parts of the region are presently separated by a northeast-southwest trending transfer zone that was likely originally present as a transform fault in the subducted Tethys oceanic crust, and demonstrates that the regional geodynamic evolution can be strongly influenced by the geographical distribution of geologic features on the

Recent shifts in Himalayan vegetation activity trends in response to climatic change and environmental drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, N. B.; Mainali, K. P.

2016-12-01

Climatic changes along with anthropogenic disturbances are causing dramatic ecological impacts in mid to high latitude mountain vegetation including in the Himalayas which are ecologically sensitive environments. Given the challenges associated with in situ vegetation monitoring in the Himalayas, remote sensing based quantification of vegetation dynamics can provide essential ecological information on changes in vegetation activity that may consist of alternative sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study utilized a trend break analysis procedure for detection of monotonic as well as abrupt (either interruption or reversal) trend changes in smoothed normalized difference vegetation index satellite time-series data over the Himalayas. Overall, trend breaks in vegetation greenness showed high spatio-temporal variability in distribution considering elevation, ecoregion and land cover/use stratifications. Interrupted greening was spatially most dominant in all Himalayan ecoregions followed by abrupt browning. Areas showing trend reversal and monotonic trends appeared minority. Trend type distribution was strongly dependent on elevation as majority of greening (with or without interruption) occurred at lower elevation areas at higher elevation were dominantly. Ecoregion based stratification of trend types highlighted some exception to this elevational dependence as high altitude ecoregions of western Himalayas showed significantly less browning compared to the ecoregions in eastern Himalaya. Land cover/use based analysis of trend distribution showed that interrupted greening was most dominant in closed needleleafed forest following by rainfed cropland and mosaic croplands while interrupted browning most dominant in closed to open herbaceous vegetation found at higher elevation areas followed by closed needleleafed forest and closed to open broad leafed evergreen forests. Spatial analysis of trend break timing showed that for majority of areas experiencing

Analyzing Multidecadal Trends in Cloudiness Over the Subtropical Andes Mountains of South America Using a Regional Climate Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Satellite-based products indicate that many parts of South America have been experiencing increases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and corresponding decreases in cloudiness over the last few decades, with the strongest trends occurring in the subtropical Andes Mountains - an area that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on glacial melt for dry-season runoff. Changes in cloudiness may be contributing to increases in atmospheric temperature, thereby raising the freezing level height (FLH) - a critical geophysical parameter. Yet these trends are only partially captured in reanalysis products, while AMIP climate models generally show no significant trend in OLR over this timeframe, making it difficult to determine the underlying drivers. Therefore, controlled numerical experiments with a regional climate model are performed in order to investigate drivers of the observed OLR and cloudiness trends. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here because it offers several advantages over global models, including higher resolution - a critical asset in areas of complex topography - as well as flexible physics, parameterization, and data assimilation capabilities. It is likely that changes in the mean states and meridional gradients of SSTs in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are driving regional trends in clouds. A series of lower boundary manipulations are performed with WRF to determine to what extent changes in SSTs influence regional OLR.

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Xiaodong

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May and winter (November to January, during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model

Early Eocene climatic optimum: Environmental impact on the North Iberian continental margin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Payros, A.; Ortiz, S.; Millán, I.; Arostegi, J.; Orue-Etxebarria, X.; Apellaniz, E.

2015-01-01

The early Eocene climatic optimum, which constituted the peak of the long-term early Cenozoic global warming, had a significant impact on the environmental evolution of terrestrial and oceanic areas. Surprisingly, however, its influence on continental margins is poorly known. New insights are

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glenn Verner

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. Design: We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. Results: The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively, which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014. However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs, remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, predominantly in Europe and North America. Conclusions: There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming.

Science.gov (United States)

Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-01-01

Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young

Patterns of Cenozoic sediment flux from western Scandinavia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

2012-01-01

deposits in the North Sea, the post-mid-Miocene Molo and Kai Formations of the Norwegian Shelf, the southern North Sea delta system and large volumes of the Late Pliocene-Holocene Naust Formation. The sediment flux from Scandinavia during the Cenozoic is in general agreement with the detrital flux...

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Early middle Miocene tectonic uplift of the northwestern part of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau evidenced by geochemical and mineralogical records in the western Tarim Basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, Chaowen; Hong, Hanlie; Abels, Hemmo A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304848018; Li, Zhaohui; Cao, Kai; Yin, Ke; Song, Bowen; Xu, Yadong; Ji, Junliang; Zhang, Kexin

The Tarim Basin in western China has been receiving continuous marine to lacustrine deposits during the Cenozoic as a foreland basin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Clay mineralogy and geochemical proxy data from these sedimentary archives can shed light on climate and tectonic trends. Here we

75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-27

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-17

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session...

Climate related trends and meteorological conditions in European Arctic region - Porsanger fjord, Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Cieszyńska, Agata; Stramska, Małgorzata

2017-04-01

Climate change has significant effect on the Arctic environment, where global trends are amplified. In this study, we have focused on the Porsanger fjord, located in European Arctic in the coastal region of the Barents Sea. We have analyzed climate related trends and meteorological condititions in the area of interest. Meteorological data included wind speed and direction, air temperature (AT) and precipitation from Era-Interim reanalysis (1986-2015) and local observations (1996-2015) from Lakselv (L, fjord's head area) and Honningsvaag (H - fjord's exit area). Our results confirm that this region is undergoing climate change related warming, which is indicated by rising air temperatures. Based on long-term reanalysis data, estimated trends for air temperature (AT) in Porsanger fjord are: 0.0536 °C year-1 at fjord's exit and 0.0428 °C year-1 at fjord's head. The results show that climate change does not seem to have a significant effect on long-term changes of wind speed and precipitation in the Porsanger fjord. Statistical analysis underlined significant spatial variability of meteorological conditions inside the fjord. For example, there are large differences in the annual cycle of AT with monthly mean January and July values of -8.4 and 12.6 °C in L and -2.5 and 10.1 °C in H. Dominant wind directions in Lakselv are S and SSE, while in Honningsvaag S and SSW directions prevail. Strong wind events (above 12 m s-1) are more frequent in H than in L. Annual cycle is characterized by stronger winds in winter and seasonality of wind direction. Precipitation for a given location can change by about 50% between years and varies spatially. Synoptic scale and within day variability are extremely intense in the area of interest. Air temperature and wind speed and direction can change dramatically in hours. In addition, regular patterns of the daily cycle of AT have different intensity in L and H. It is interesting to note that in spring/summer season, the daily cycle of

Recent Trends in the Ebro River Basin: Is It All "Just" Climate Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, Stefanie; Merz, Ralf

2016-04-01

Water resources are under pressure from a variety of stressors such as industry, agriculture, water abstraction or pollution. Changing climate can potentially enhance the impact of these stressors, especially under water scarcity conditions. The aim of the GLOBAQUA project ("Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity") is, therefore, to analyze the combined effect of multiple stressors in the context of increasing water scarcity. As part of the GLOBAQUA project, this study examines recent trends in climate, water quantity and quality parameters in the Ebro River Basin in Northern Spain to identify stressors and determine their joint impact on water resources. Mann-Kendall trend analyses of temperature, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, streamwater and groundwater quality data (spanning between 15 and 40 years) were performed. Moreover, anthropogenic pressures such as land use and alteration of natural flow by reservoirs were considered. Climate data indicate increasing temperatures in the Ebro River Basin especially in summer and autumn, and decreasing precipitation particularly in summer. In contrast, precipitation mostly shows upwards trends in autumn, but these are counterbalanced by greater evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Overall, this results in annual and seasonal streamflow decreases at the majority of gauging stations. Declining trends in streamflow are most pronounced during summer and are also observed in subbasins without reservoirs. Diminishing water resources become also apparent in generally decreasing groundwater levels in the Ebro River Basin. This decrease is most pronounced in areas where groundwater serves as main origin for irrigation water, which demonstrates how land use acts as a local rather than regional driver of change. Increasing air temperatures correlate with increasing water temperatures over the past 30 years, which indicates the effect of changing climate on water

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cenozoic stratigraphy and structure of the Chesapeake Bay region

Science.gov (United States)

Powars, David S.; Edwards, Lucy E.; Kidwell, Susan M.; Schindler, J. Stephen

2015-01-01

The Salisbury embayment is a broad tectonic downwarp that is filled by generally seaward-thickening, wedge-shaped deposits of the central Atlantic Coastal Plain. Our two-day field trip will take us to the western side of this embayment from the Fall Zone in Washington, D.C., to some of the bluffs along Aquia Creek and the Potomac River in Virginia, and then to the Calvert Cliffs on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. We will see fluvial-deltaic Cretaceous deposits of the Potomac Formation. We will then focus on Cenozoic marine deposits. Transgressive and highstand deposits are stacked upon each other with unconformities separating them; rarely are regressive or lowstand deposits preserved. The Paleocene and Eocene shallow shelf deposits consist of glauconitic, silty sands that contain varying amounts of marine shells. The Miocene shallow shelf deposits consist of diatomaceous silts and silty and shelly sands. The lithology, thickness, dip, preservation, and distribution of the succession of coastal plain sediments that were deposited in our field-trip area are, to a great extent, structurally controlled. Surficial and subsurface mapping using numerous continuous cores, auger holes, water-well data, and seismic surveys has documented some folds and numerous high-angle reverse and normal faults that offset Cretaceous and Cenozoic deposits. Many of these structures are rooted in early Mesozoic and/or Paleozoic NE-trending regional tectonic fault systems that underlie the Atlantic Coastal Plain. On Day 1, we will focus on two fault systems (stops 1–2; Stafford fault system and the Skinkers Neck–Brandywine fault system and their constituent fault zones and faults). We will then see (stops 3–5) a few of the remaining exposures of largely unlithified marine Paleocene and Eocene strata along the Virginia side of the Potomac River including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum boundary clay. These exposures are capped by fluvial-estuarine Pleistocene terrace

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

Cenozoic Methane-Seep Faunas of the Caribbean Region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steffen Kiel

Full Text Available We report new examples of Cenozoic cold-seep communities from Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, and Venezuela, and attempt to improve the stratigraphic dating of Cenozoic Caribbean seep communities using strontium isotope stratigraphy. Two seep faunas are distinguished in Barbados: the late Eocene mudstone-hosted 'Joes River fauna' consists mainly of large lucinid bivalves and tall abyssochrysoid gastropods, and the early Miocene carbonate-hosted 'Bath Cliffs fauna' containing the vesicomyid Pleurophopsis, the mytilid Bathymodiolus and small gastropods. Two new Oligocene seep communities from the Sinú River basin in Colombia consist of lucinid bivalves including Elongatolucina, thyasirid and solemyid bivalves, and Pleurophopsis. A new early Miocene seep community from Cuba includes Pleurophopsis and the large lucinid Meganodontia. Strontium isotope stratigraphy suggests an Eocene age for the Cuban Elmira asphalt mine seep community, making it the oldest in the Caribbean region. A new basal Pliocene seep fauna from the Dominican Republic is characterized by the large lucinid Anodontia (Pegophysema. In Trinidad we distinguish two types of seep faunas: the mudstone-hosted Godineau River fauna consisting mainly of lucinid bivalves, and the limestone-hosted Freeman's Bay fauna consisting chiefly of Pleurophopsis, Bathymodiolus, and small gastropods; they are all dated as late Miocene. Four new seep communities of Oligocene to Miocene age are reported from Venezuela. They consist mainly of large globular lucinid bivalves including Meganodontia, and moderately sized vesicomyid bivalves. After the late Miocene many large and typical 'Cenozoic' lucinid genera disappeared from the Caribbean seeps and are today known only from the central Indo-Pacific Ocean. We speculate that the increasingly oligotrophic conditions in the Caribbean Sea after the closure of the Isthmus of Panama in the Pliocene may have been unfavorable for such large

Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

OpenAIRE

Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

2016-01-01

This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

Tectonic/climatic control on sediment provenance in the Cape Roberts Project core record (southern Victoria Land, Antarctica): A pulsing late Oligocene/early Miocene signal from south revealed by detrital thermochronology

Science.gov (United States)

Olivetti, V.; Balestrieri, M. L.; Rossetti, F.; Talarico, F. M.

2012-04-01

The Mesozoic-Cenozoic West Antarctic Rift System (WARS) is one of the largest intracontinental rift on Earth. The Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) form its western shoulder, marking the boundary between the East and West Antarctica. The rifting evolution is commonly considered polyphase and involves an Early Cretaceous phase linked to the Gondwana break-up followed by a major Cenozoic one, starting at c. 50-40 Ma. This Cenozoic episode corresponds to the major uplift/denudation phase of the TAM, which occurred concurrently with transition from orthogonal to oblique rifting. The Cenozoic rift reorganization occurred concurrently with a major change in the global climate system and a global reorganization of plate motions. This area thus provide an outstanding natural laboratory for studying a range of geological problems that involve feedback relationships between tectonics and climate. A key to address the tectonic/climate feedback relations is to look on apparent synchronicity in erosion signal between different segments, and to compare these with well-dated regional and global climatic events. However, due to the paucity of Cenozoic rock sequences exposed along the TAM front, a few information is available about the neotectonics of the rift and rift-flank uplift system. The direct physical record of the tectonic/climate history of the WARS recovered by core drillings along the western margin of the Ross sea (DSDP, CIROS, Cape Roberts and ANDRILL projects) provides an invaluable tool to address this issue. Twenty-three samples distributed throughout the entire composite drill-cored stratigraphic succession of Cape Roberts were analyzed. Age probability plots of eighteen detrital samples with depositional ages between 34 Ma and the Pliocene were decomposed into statistically significant age populations or peaks using binomial peak-fitting. Moreover, three granitic pebbles, one dolerite clast and one sample of Beacon sandstones have been dated. From detrital samples

Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alireza, Shahabfar

2004-01-01

In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

Climate change in the age of humans

Science.gov (United States)

J. Curt. Stager

2014-01-01

The Anthropocene epoch presents a mix of old and new challenges for the world’s forests. Climatic instability has typified most of the Cenozoic Era but today’s situation is unique due to the presence of billions of humans on the planet. The potential rate and magnitude of future warming driven by continued fossil fuel combustion could be unprecedented during the last...

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.

2016-01-01

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

Trends and variations of pH and hardness in a typical semi-arid river in a monsoon climate region during 1985-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Shaonan; Li, Xuyong; Jiang, Yan; Zhao, Hongtao; Yang, Lei

2016-09-01

The rapid growth of urbanization and industrialization, along with dramatic climate change, has strongly influenced hydrochemical characteristics in recent decades in China and thus could cause the variation of pH and general total hardness of a river. To explore such variations and their potential influencing factors in a river of the monsoon climate region, we analyzed a long-term monitoring dataset of pH, SO4 (2-), NOx, general total hardness (GH), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), and Cl(-) in surface water and groundwater in the Luan River basin from 1985 to 2009. The nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to test the long-term trends of pH and GH. Relationship between the affecting factors, pH and GH were discussed. Results showed that pH showed a decreasing trend and that GH had an increasing trend in the long-term. Seasonal variation of pH and GH was mainly due to the typical monsoon climate. Results of correlation analysis showed that the unit area usage amounts of chemical fertilizer, NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were negatively correlated with pH in groundwater. In addition, mining activity affected GH spatial variation. Acid deposition, drought, and increasing the use of chemical fertilizers would contribute to the acidification trend, and mining activities would affect the spatial variation of GH. Variations of precipitation and runoff in semi-arid monsoon climate areas had significant influences on the pH and GH. Our findings implied that human activities played a critical role in river acidification in the semi-arid monsoon climate region of northern China.

Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in major watersheds of ChinaLijun Wang1, Fuqiang Tian1*, Hongchang Hu11State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,Abstracts: During the past 50 years, runoff from the major watersheds in China has demonstrated a decrease trend. The variations in the amount of precipitation will directly influence the runoff, however in some parts of China, it is also found that there is huge variations in the amount of runoff whereas the amount of precipitation has not shown such variations. In the same time, the intensity and duration of rainfall has changed a lot. Therefore, it is important to categorize the different trends of runoff and to identify the major factors responsible for these changes. In this study, we have collected the data of 200 different locations from 8 major watersheds of China. By comparing and analyzing the daily precipitation and the daily runoff data, we have found some significant changes in runoff coefficients between two periods (1979-1988 and 2006-2014). On the basis of this, the further study will be carried out which identify that how the climate change influences the two major components of runoff, baseflow and stormflow. The impact of anthropogenic activity in the study area could not be ignored and it is important to know whether human action and climate change is the main factors for the decline of waterflow in river and how these factors influence the river water.

Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

2001-10-01

The result of the first research phase of the project was an outline of the playing field of local climate policy. The use of options and instruments from the playing field is examined on the basis of literature and interviews with local governments. In the process, barriers for the implementation of options are illustrated. The evaluation of the playing field in practise shows that local governments often only use part of their playing field. Even local governments that excel and are familiar throughout the country in relation to one particular task area ignore other task areas. The reasons why options and instruments are not fully utilised vary per task area: not enough internal support; lack of clear policy framework; climate policy must join in with other targets or local governments depend on cooperation of other actors. Nevertheless, generally speaking the success and failure factors in utilising options in the local government playing field are often related to the sphere of cooperation with other parties and the input of knowledge in the organisation of the local government. Moreover, the importance of climate is not made explicit enough in many task areas. The options in climate policy for local governments are influenced by social developments. In the study three trends are examined with respect to their influence: developments in the area of liberalisation of the energy market, the position of local governments in national environmental policy and changes in local democracy. These trends result in a complication of the role of local governments. Local governments must show more initiative than in the past. Liberalisation leads to a more business-oriented relationship with energy companies and probably lower energy prices. Larger freedom of policy results in more space for establishing local priorities, but does not necessarily result in more attention for local climate policy. Participation can result in a larger support for climate policy but also

Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qassem Y. Tarawneh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is an important factor for sustainable water resource management in the arid and semi-arid countries. In this study, future trends of temperature and rainfall were assessed for several regions in Saudi Arabia. The linear and Mann–Kendall analyses showed an increase of temperature in all regions and decrease of rainfall in many regions. Following trend analysis, the outputs of the NCAR Community Climate System Model were obtained for three emission scenarios (high: representative concentration pathways RCP8.5; high medium: RCP6; and low: RCP2.6 for the assessment periods of 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively, and compared with the average values from the reference period (1986–2005. In all emission scenarios, temperature showed an increase from 1986 to 2005 in all regions. For RCP8.5, increase of temperature are in the ranges of 0.8–1.6 °C, 0.9–2.7 °C and 0.7–4.1 °C during 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively. However, rainfall showed variable patterns with respect to emission scenarios and assessment periods. In most regions, the RCP6 showed decrease in rainfall from the reference period while the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 showed variable patterns. The increase of temperature and variable pattern of rainfall may increase uncertainty in developing sustainable water resource management strategies.

Origins of the Asian-Australian monsoons related to Cenozoic plate movement and Tibetan Plateau uplift - A modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Dong, B.; Yin, Z. Y.; Smith, R. S.; Guo, Q.

2017-12-01

The origin of monsoon is a subject that has attracted much attention in the scientific community and even today it is still controversial. According to geological records, there is conflicting evidence regarding the timings of establishment of the monsoon climates in South Asia, East Asia, and northern Australia. Additionally, different explanations for the monsoon origins have been derived from various numerical simulations. To further investigate the origin and evolution of the Asian and Australian monsoons, we designed a series of numerical experiments using a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model. Since the Indian-Australian plate has shifted its position significantly during the Cenozoic, together with the large-scale uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), in these experiments we considered the configurations of ocean-land masses and large topographic features based on geological evidence of plate motion and TP uplift in 5 typical Cenozoic geological periods: mid-Paleocene ( 60Ma), late-Eocene ( 40Ma), late-Oligocene ( 25Ma), late-Miocene ( 10Ma), and present day. These experiments allowed us to examine the combined effects of the changes in the land-ocean configuration due to plate movement and TP uplift, they also provided insight into the effects of the high CO2 levels during the Eocene. The simulations revealed that during the Paleocene, the Indian Subcontinent was still positioned in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and, therefore, its climate behaved as the SH tropical monsoon. By the late Eocene, it moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere, which allowed the establishment of the South Asian monsoon. In contrast, the East Asian and Australian monsoon did not exist in the late Oligocene. These monsoon systems were established in the Miocene and then enhanced thereafter. Establishments of the low-latitude monsoons in South Asia and Australia were entirely determined by the position of the Indian-Australian plate and not related to the TP uplift

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Tebaldi, Claudia

2014-01-01

In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050. Thus, impacts of smaller magnitude in the near-term can be as or more consequential for food prices or food security as larger magnitude impacts in the future. Here we estimate the risks that climate trends over the next 10 or 20 years could have large impacts on global yields of wheat and maize, with a focus on scenarios that would cut the expected rates of yield gains in half. We find that because of global warming, the chance of climate trends over a 20 year period causing a 10% yield loss has increased from a less than 1 in 200 chance arising from internal climate variability alone, to a 1 in 10 chance for maize and 1 in 20 chance for wheat. Estimated risks for maize are higher because of a greater geographic concentration than wheat, as well as a slightly more negative aggregate temperature sensitivity. Global warming has also greatly increased the chance of climate trends large enough to halve yield trends over a 10 year period, with a roughly 1 in 4 chance for maize and 1 in 6 chance for wheat. Estimated risks are slightly larger when using climate projections from a large ensemble of a single climate model that more fully explores internal climate variability, than a multi-model ensemble that more fully explores model uncertainty. Although scenarios of climate impacts large enough to halve yield growth rates are still fairly unlikely, they may warrant consideration by institutions potentially affected by associated changes in international food prices. (paper)

Cenozoic tectonic jumping and implications for hydrocarbon accumulation in basins in the East Asia Continental Margin

Science.gov (United States)

Suo, Yanhui; Li, Sanzhong; Yu, Shan; Somerville, Ian D.; Liu, Xin; Zhao, Shujuan; Dai, Liming

2014-07-01

Tectonic migration is a common geological process of basin formation and evolution. However, little is known about tectonic migration in the western Pacific margins. This paper focuses on the representative Cenozoic basins of East China and its surrounding seas in the western Pacific domain to discuss the phenomenon of tectonic jumping in Cenozoic basins, based on structural data from the Bohai Bay Basin, the South Yellow Sea Basin, the East China Sea Shelf Basin, and the South China Sea Continental Shelf Basin. The western Pacific active continental margin is the eastern margin of a global convergent system involving the Eurasian Plate, the Pacific Plate, and the Indian Plate. Under the combined effects of the India-Eurasia collision and retrogressive or roll-back subduction of the Pacific Plate, the western Pacific active continental margin had a wide basin-arc-trench system which migrated or ‘jumped’ eastward and further oceanward. This migration and jumping is characterized by progressive eastward younging of faulting, sedimentation, and subsidence within the basins. Owing to the tectonic migration, the geological conditions associated with hydrocarbon and gashydrate accumulation in the Cenozoic basins of East China and its adjacent seas also become progressively younger from west to east, showing eastward younging in the generation time of reservoirs, seals, traps, accumulations and preservation of hydrocarbon and gashydrate. Such a spatio-temporal distribution of Cenozoic hydrocarbon and gashydrate is significant for the oil, gas and gashydrate exploration in the East Asian Continental Margin. Finally, this study discusses the mechanism of Cenozoic intrabasinal and interbasinal tectonic migration in terms of interplate, intraplate and underplating processes. The migration or jumping regimes of three separate or interrelated events: (1) tectonism-magmatism, (2) basin formation, and (3) hydrocarbon-gashydrate accumulation are the combined effects of the

Climate variability and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: a study of glaucous gulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Bustnes, Jan O; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Verreault, Jonathan

2010-04-15

The impact of climate variability on temporal trends (1997-2006) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs; polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], and oxychlordane) was assessed in glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding in the Norwegian Arctic (n = 240). The Arctic Oscillation (AO: an index of sea-level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere above 20 degrees N) with different time lags was used as a climate proxy. The estimated concentrations of POPs in glaucous gull blood/plasma declined substantially (16-60%) over the time period. Multiple regression analyses showed that the rates of decline for POPs were correlated to climate variation when controlling for potential confounding variables (sex and body condition). More specifically AO in the current winter showed negative associations with POP concentrations, whereas the relationships with AO measurements from the year preceding POP measurements (AO preceding summer and AO preceding winter) were positive. Hence, gulls had relatively higher POP concentrations in breeding seasons following years with high air transport toward the Arctic. Furthermore, the impact of AO appeared to be stronger for HCB, a relatively volatile compound with high transport potential, compared to heavy chlorinated PCB congeners. This study thus suggests that predicted climate change should be considered in assessments of future temporal trends of POPs in Arctic wildlife.

Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

Science.gov (United States)

Stephanie K. Moore; Nathan J. Mantua; Barbara M. Hickey; Vera L. Trainer

2009-01-01

Temporal and spatial trends in paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in Puget Sound shellfish and their relationships with climate are investigated using long-term monitoring data since 1957. Data are selected for trend analyses based on the sensitivity of shellfish species to PSTs and their depuration rates, and the frequency of sample collection at individual sites....

Exploring Agro-Climatic Trends in Ethiopia Using CHIRPS

Science.gov (United States)

Pedreros, D. H.; Funk, C. C.; Brown, M. E.; Korecha, D.; Seid, Y. M.

2015-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) uses the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) to monitor agricultural food production in different regions of the world. CHIRPS is a 1981-present, 5 day, approximately 5km resolution, rainfall product based on a combination of geostationary satellite observations, a high resolution climatology and in situ station observations. Furthermore, FEWS NET has developed a gridded implementation of the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), a water balance measurement indicator of crop performance. This study takes advantage of the CHIRPS' long term period of record and high spatial and temporal resolution to examine agro-climatic trends in Ethiopia. We use the CHIRPS rainfall dataset to calculate the WRSI for the boreal spring and summer crop seasons, as well as for spring-summer rangelands conditions. We find substantial long term rainfall declines in the spring and summer seasons across southeastern and northeastern Ethiopia. Crop Model results indicate that rainfall declines in the cropped regions have been associated with water deficits during the critical grain filling periods in well populated and/or highly vulnerable parts of eastern Ethiopia. WRSI results in the pastoral areas indicate substantial reductions in rangeland health during the later part of the growing seasons. These health declines correspond to the regions of Somaliland and Afar that have experienced chronic severe food insecurity since 2010. Key words: CHIRPS, satellite estimated rainfall, agricultural production

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

Science.gov (United States)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

Types of Cenozoic Mollusca from Java in the Martin Collection of Naturalis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leloux, J.; Wesselingh, F.P.

2009-01-01

An updated type catalogue of the Martin Collection (fossil Mollusca, predominantly from the Cenozoic of Java, Indonesia) is presented. Type specimen data, updated locality data, and illustrations are given.

Thermochronological Evidence for Cenozoic Segmentation of Transantarctic Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Zattin, M.; Pace, D.; Andreucci, B.; Rossetti, F.; Talarico, F.

2013-12-01

The Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) represent the boundary between the cratonic East Antarctica and the West Antarctica and are thus related to formation of the Western Antarctic Rift system (WARS). However, temporal relationships between timing of TAM uplift and evolution of the WARS are not clear. The large amount of existing thermochronological data indicate that exhumation of the TAM occurred at different times and extents, with main cooling events in the Early Cretaceous, Late Cretaceous, and early Cenozoic. Uplift of the different segments of the TAM was not recorded according to regular trends along the mountain chain, but instead appears diachronous and without a recognizable spatial pattern. Here we present apatite fission-track (AFT) data from 20 samples, collected from metamorphic and intrusive rocks from the region comprised between the Blue Glacier and the Byrd Glacier. AFT data show a large variety of ages, ranging from 28.0 to 88.8 Ma and without a clear correlation between age and elevation. As a whole, spatial variations suggest a decrease of ages from S to the region of the Koettlitz Glacier, where ages suddenly raise up to Cretaceous values. A marked increase of ages has been detected also south of Darwin Glacier, that is in correspondence of the Britannia Range. Thermal modelling shows that cooling paths are usually composite, with a main cooling event followed by slower cooling to present day temperatures. Time of main cooling event is late Cretaceous for samples from the Britannia Range whereas it is Eocene-Oligocene for samples from Koettlitz and Mulock areas. In any case, cooling rates are always quite low also during periods of enhanced uplift, with values not exceeding 5°C/Ma. These data support the idea of tectonic block segmentation of the TAM during the last phases of exhumation. Most of vertical displacements occurred during the Oligocene across transverse fault zones such as the Discovery Accommodation Zone to the north and the

Determination of Cenozoic sedimentary structures using integrated geophysical surveys: A case study in the Barkol Basin, Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Kai; Chen, Chao; Du, Jinsong; Wang, Limin; Lei, Binhua

2018-01-01

Thickness estimation of sedimentary basin is a complex geological problem, especially in an orogenic environment. Intense and multiple tectonic movements and climate changes result in inhomogeneity of sedimentary layers and basement configurations, which making sedimentary structure modelling difficult. In this study, integrated geophysical methods, including gravity, magnetotelluric (MT) sounding and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), were used to estimate basement relief to understand the geological structure and evolution of the eastern Barkol Basin in China. This basin formed with the uplift of the eastern Tianshan during the Cenozoic. Gravity anomaly map revealed the framework of the entire area, and ERT as well as MT sections reflected the geoelectric features of the Cenozoic two-layer distribution. Therefore, gravity data, constrained by MT, ERT and boreholes, were utilized to estimate the spatial distribution of the Quaternary layer. The gravity effect of the Quaternary layer related to the Tertiary layer was later subtracted to obtain the residual anomaly for inversion. For the Tertiary layer, the study area was divided into several parts because of lateral difference of density contrasts. Gravity data were interpreted to determine the density contrast constrained by the MT results. The basement relief can be verified by geological investigation, including the uplift process and regional tectonic setting. The agreement between geophysical survey and prior information from geology emphasizes the importance of integrated geophysical survey as a complementary means of geological studies in this region.

Active faults paragenesis and the state of crustal stresses in the Late Cenozoic in Central Mongolia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Sankov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Active faults of the Hangay-Hentiy tectonic saddle region in Central Mongolia are studied by space images interpretation, relief analysis, structural methods and tectonic stress reconstruction. The study results show that faults activation during the Late Cenozoic stage was selective, and a cluster pattern of active faults is typical for the study region. Morphological and genetic types and the kinematics of faults in the Hangay-Hentiy saddle region are related the direction of the ancient inherited structural heterogeneities. Latitudinal and WNW trending faults are left lateral strike-slips with reverse or thrust component (Dzhargalantgol and North Burd faults. NW trending faults are reverse faults or thrusts with left lateral horizontal component. NNW trending faults have right lateral horizontal component. The horizontal component of the displacements, as a rule, exceeds the vertical one. Brittle deformations in fault zones do not conform with the Pliocene and, for the most part, Pleistocene topography. With some caution it may be concluded that the last phase of revitalization of strike slip and reverse movements along the faults commenced in the Late Pleistocene. NE trending disjunctives are normal faults distributed mainly within the Hangay uplift. Their features are more early activation within the Late Cenozoic and the lack of relation to large linear structures of the previous tectonic stages. According to the stress tensor reconstructions of the last phase of deformation in zones of active faults of the Hangay-Hentiy saddle using data on tectonic fractures and fault displacements, it is revealed that conditions of compression and strike-slip with NNE direction of the axis of maximum compression were dominant. Stress tensors of extensional type with NNW direction of minimum compression are reconstructed for the Orkhon graben. It is concluded that the activation of faults in Central Mongolia in the Pleistocene-Holocene, as well as

Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones

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Nir Y. Krakauer

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The United States Department of Agriculture classifies plant hardiness zones based on mean annual minimum temperatures over some past period (currently 1976–2005. Since temperatures are changing, these values may benefit from updating. I outline a multistep methodology involving imputation of missing station values, geostatistical interpolation, and time series smoothing to update a climate variable’s expected value compared to a climatology period and apply it to estimating annual minimum temperature change over the coterminous United States. I show using hindcast experiments that trend estimation gives more accurate predictions of minimum temperatures 1-2 years in advance compared to the previous 30 years’ mean alone. I find that annual minimum temperature increased roughly 2.5 times faster than mean temperature (~2.0 K versus ~0.8 K since 1970, and is already an average of 1.2  0.5 K (regionally up to ~2 K above the 1976–2005 mean, so that much of the country belongs to warmer hardiness zones compared to the current map. The methods developed may also be applied to estimate changes in other climate variables and geographic regions.

Trends in the mortality effects of hot spells in central Europe: adaptation to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.

2013-12-01

Europe has recently been affected by several long-lasting and severe heat waves, particularly in July-August 2003 (western Europe), June-July 2006 (central Europe), July 2007 (southeastern Europe) and July 2010 (western Russia). The heat waves influenced many sectors of human activities, with enormous socio-economic and environmental impacts. With estimated death tolls exceeding 50,000, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves were the worst natural disasters in Europe over the last 50 years, yielding an example of how seriously may also high-income societies be affected by climate change. The present study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (around 10 million inhabitants, central Europe). Declining trends in the mortality impacts since 1986 are found, in spite of rising temperature trends. The findings remain unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account, and they are similar for all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability in the examined population (Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012). The results are also consistent with those reported for other developed regions of the world (the US, western Europe, Australia) and suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address

The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Geissler, Wolfram; Knies, Jochen

2016-04-01

The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N in the Boreas Basin and along the East Greenland continental margin are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: (1) the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and (2) the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic. Getting a continuous record of the

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, Lisa

2007-01-01

Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

Sr-Nd isotope systematics of xenoliths in Cenozoic volcanic rocks from SW Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kagami, Hiroo; Iwata, Masatoshi; Iizumi, Shigeru; Nureki, Terukazu.

1993-01-01

Based on new and previously published Sr and Nd isotope data, we examined the petrogenetic relationship between deep crust- and upper mantle-derived xenoliths contained in Cenozoic volcanic rocks and Cretaceous-Paleogene granitoid rocks in SW Japan. The deep crust- and upper mantle-derived mafic to ultramafic xenoliths contained in Cenozoic volcanic rocks from SW Japan have comparable initial Sr and Nd isotope ratios to the Cretaceous-Paleogene granitoid rocks in their respective districts. This may suggest that these xenoliths were genetically related to the Cretaceous-Paleogene granitoid rocks in SW Japan, and that regional variations in Sr and Nd isotope ratios observed in the granitoid rocks are attributed to differences in the geochemistry of the magma sources. (author)

Climate-influenced ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed masting trends in western Montana, USA

OpenAIRE

Keyes, Christopher R.; Gonzalez, Ruben Manso

2015-01-01

Aim of study: The aim of this study was to analyze 10-year records of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed production, in order to confirm synchronic seed production and to evaluate cyclical masting trends, masting depletion effect, and climate-masting relationships. Area of study: The study area was located in a P. ponderosa stand in the northern Rocky Mountains (western Montana, USA). Material and methods: The study was conducted in one stand that had been subjected to a silvicul...

Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah M Eglington

Full Text Available Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

Historical and future trends in ocean climate and biogeochemistry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doney, Scott C.; Bopp, Laurent; Long, Matthew C.

2014-01-01

Changing atmospheric composition due to human activities, primarily carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel burning, is already impacting ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and ecology, and model projections indicate that observed trends will continue or even accelerate over this century. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 alters Earth's radiative balance, leading to global-scale warming and climate change. The ocean stores the majority of resulting anomalous heat, which in turn drives other physical, chemical, and biological impacts. Sea surface warming and increased ocean vertical stratification are projected to reduce global-integrated primary production and export flux as well as to lower subsurface dissolved oxygen concentrations. Upper trophic levels will be affected both directly by warming and indirectly from changes in productivity and expanding low oxygen zones. The ocean also absorbs roughly one-quarter of present-day anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The resulting changes in seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, include declining pH and saturation state for calcium carbon minerals that may have widespread impacts on many marine organisms. Climate warming will likely slow ocean CO 2 uptake but is not expected to significantly reduce upper ocean acidification. Improving the accuracy of future model projections requires better observational constraints on current rates of ocean change and a better understanding of the mechanisms controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes. (authors)

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Won Park

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Relating Cenozoic North Sea sediments to topography in southern Norway:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anell, Ingrid Anna Margareta; Thybo, Hans; Stratford, Wanda Rose

2010-01-01

the Shetland platform continued throughout the Cenozoic while supply from southern Norway increased markedly around the Eocene–Oligocene, coeval with the greenhouse–icehouse transition. Mass balance calculations of sediment and eroded rock volumes suggest that while some topography along the western margin...... that Plio-Pleistocene erosion over-deepened a pre-existing topography....

Cenozoic Deformation of the Tarim Basin (Xinjiang, China): a Record of the Deformation Propagation through the Asian Orogenic System

Science.gov (United States)

Laborde, A.; Barrier, L.; Simoes, M.; Li, H.

2016-12-01

During the Cenozoic, the ongoing India-Eurasia collision resulted in the formation of the Himalayan-Tibetan plateau and reactivated the Tian Shan and Altai ranges located thousands of kilometers further north. Despite numerous studies carried out on the geology and tectonics of this large convergent orogenic system, several mechanisms remain controversial such as the stress propagation through the Asia Continent or the strain partitioning between crustal thickening and lateral extruding of its lithosphere. Located between the Tibetan Plateau and the Tian Shan Range, the Tarim Basin and its several kilometres thick Cenozoic sediments derived from the surrounding mountain belts are key recorders to reconstruct the evolution of the latters. Moreover, this basin is often considered as a relatively rigid block, which behaved as a secondary ``indenter'' transmitting collisional stresses to the Tian Shan. However, due to the size of the Tarim and its thick Cenozoic sedimentary series hiding most of its structures, the constraints on the spatial distribution and timing of the its Cenozoic deformation remain fragmentary. Therefore, the main objective of our study was to produce a synthetic view of this deformation at the scale of the whole basin. Based on numerous surface and subsurface data (satellite images, field surveys, seismic profiles, and well data), we established a tectonic map of the Cenozoic structures in the region and built balanced geological cross-sections across the basin. Our surface and subsurface observations confirm that, contrary to what had been proposed, the Tarim block has also undergone a major deformation during the Cenozoic. The quantification and history of this deformation provide useful insights into the modalities of the crustal shortening in the area and the problems of stress propagation and strain partitioning following the Indo-Asian collision.

Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

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Karishma Niloy Kibria

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west, nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams. Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

A systematic review of the safety climate intervention literature: Past trends and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jin; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Cheung, Janelle H; Chen, Zhuo; Shaw, William S

2018-04-26

Safety climate represents the meaningfulness of safety and how safety is valued in an organization. The contributions of safety climate to organizational safety have been well documented. There is a dearth of empirical research, however, on specific safety climate interventions and their effectiveness. The present study aims at examining the trend of safety climate interventions and offering compiled information for designing and implementing evidence-based safety climate interventions. Our literature search yielded 384 titles that were inspected by three examiners. Using a stepwise process that allowed for assessment of interobserver agreement, 19 full articles were selected and reviewed. Results showed that 10 out of the 19 articles (52.6%) were based on a quasi-experimental pre- and postintervention design, whereas 42.1% (n = 8) studies were based on a mixed-design approach (including both between- and within-subject design). All interventions in these 19 studies involved either safety-/health-related communication or education/training. Improvement of safety leadership was also a common component of safety climate interventions. According to the socio-technical systems classification of intervention strategies, all studies were categorized as interventions focusing on improving organizational and managerial structure as well as the personnel subsystem; four of them also aimed at improving technological aspects of work, and five of them aimed at improving the physical work subsystem. In general, a vast majority of the studies (89.5%, n = 17) showed a statistically significant improvement in safety climate across their organizations postintervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

2012-01-01

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

Grassland communities in the USA and expected trends associated with climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Paul Belesky

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Grasslands, including managed grazinglands, represent one of the largest ecosystems on the planet. Managed grazinglands in particular tend to occupy marginal climatic and edaphic resource zones, thus exacerbating responses in net primary productivity relative to changes in system resources, including anthropogenic factors. Climate dynamism, as evident from the fossil record, appears to be a putative feature of our planet. Recent global trends in temperature and precipitation patterns seem to differ from long-term patterns and have been associated with human activities linked with increased greenhouse gas emissions; specifically CO2. Thus grasslands, with their diverse floristic components, and interaction with and dependence upon herbivores, have a remarkable ability to persist and sustain productivity in response to changing resource conditions. This resistance and resilience to change, including uncertain long-term weather conditions, establishes managed grasslands as an important means of protecting food security. We review responses of grassland communities across regions of the USA and consider the responses in productivity and system function with respect to climatic variation. Research is needed to identify plant resources and management technologies that strengthen our ability to capitalize upon physiological and anatomical features prevalent in grassland communities associated with varying growing conditions.

The cenozoic strike-slip faults and TTHE regional crust stability of Beishan area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Zhaojie; Zhang Zhicheng; Zhang Chen; Liu Chang; Zhang Yu; Wang Ju; Chen Weiming

2008-01-01

The remote sensing images and geological features of Beishan area indicate that the Altyn Tagh fault, Sanweishan-Shuangta fault, Daquan fault and Hongliuhe fault are distributed in Beishan area from south to north. The faults are all left-lateral strike-slip faults with trending of NE40-50°, displaying similar distribution pattern. The secondary branch faults are developed at the end of each main strike-slip fault with nearly east to west trending form dendritic oblique crossings at the angle of 30-50°. Because of the left-lateral slip of the branch faults, the granites or the blocks exposed within the branch faults rotate clockwisely, forming 'Domino' structures. So the structural style of Beishan area consists of the Altyn Tagh fault, Sanweishan-Shuangta fault, Daquan fault, Hongliuhe fault and their branch faults and rotational structures between different faults. Sedimentary analysis on the fault valleys in the study area and ESR chronological test of fault clay exhibit that the Sanweishan-Shuangta fault form in the late Pliocene (N2), while the Daquan fault displays formation age of l.5-1.2 Ma, and the activity age of the relevant branch faults is Late Pleistocene (400 ka). The ages become younger from the Altyn Tagh fault to the Daquan fault and strike-slip faults display NW trending extension, further revealing the lateral growth process of the strike-slip boundary at the northern margin during the Cenozoic uplift of Tibetan Plateau. The displacement amounts on several secondary faults caused by the activities of the faults are slight due to the above-mentioned structural distribution characteristics of Beishan area, which means that this area is the most stable active area with few seismic activities. We propose the main granitic bodies in Beishan area could be favorable preselected locations for China's high level radioactive waste repository. (authors)

From mantle roots to surface eruptions: Cenozoic and Mesozoic continental basaltic magmatism

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kämpf, H.; Németh, K.; Puziewicz, J.; Mrlina, Jan; Geissler, W.H.

2015-01-01

Roč. 104, č. 8 (2015), s. 1909-1912 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : continental basaltic volcanism * BASALT 2013 conference * Cenozoic * Mesozoic Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.133, year: 2015

Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ghabaei S

2017-01-01

regions the period of 1997 to 2010 has a large total moisture shortage over all climatic regions. Most of the climate stations showed moisture deficits (decline trends during October to June (9-month at many stations expect Tehran and Shiraz stations which revealed a significant increasing over 51 years. We recommend using SPEI index for arid and semi-arid regions because it includes temperature variability in drought model so it reflects drought conditions better than other indices. Furthermore, three drought indices (i.e. SPEI, SPI and RDI have similar sensitivity to water deficits over wet climatic regions; therefore, each of those indices can be used.

Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range in West Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peregon, Anna; Uchida, Masao; Shibata, Yasuyuki

2007-01-01

A region of western Siberia is vulnerable to the predicted climatic change which may induce an important modification to the carbon balance in wetland ecosystems. This study focuses on the evaluation of both the long-term and contemporary trends of peat (carbon) accumulation and its patterns at the southern climatic range of Sphagnum peatlands in western Siberia. Visible and physical features of peat and detailed reconstructions of successional change (or sediment stratigraphies) were analysed at two types of forest-peatland ecotones, which are situated close to each other but differ by topography and composition of their plant communities. Our results suggest that Siberian peatlands exhibit a general trend towards being a carbon sink rather than a source even at or near the southern limit of their distribution. Furthermore, two types of peat accumulation were detected in the study area, namely persistent and intermittent. As opposed to persistent peat accumulation, the intermittent one is characterized by the recurrent degradation of the upper peat layers at the marginal parts of raised bogs. Persistent peat accumulation is the case for the majority of Sphagnum peatlands under current climatic conditions. It might be assumed that more peat will accumulate under the 'increased precipitation' scenarios of global warming, although intermittent peat accumulation could result in the eventual drying that may change peatlands from carbon sinks to carbon sources

Cool episodes in Early Tertiary Arctic climate: Evidence from Svalbard

Science.gov (United States)

Spielhagen, R. F.; Tripati, A.

2009-04-01

The Arctic is a climatically sensitive and important region. However, very little is known about the climatic and oceanographic evolution of the area, particularly prior to the Neogene. Until recently, the Arctic was assumed to be characterized by relatively warm conditions during the early Cenozoic. The Early Tertiary sedimentary sequence on Svalbard contains several layers with coal seams and broad-leaved plants which were commonly accepted as indicators of a generally temperate-warm climate. Here we report on the intermittent occurrence of certain temperature indicators in the succession, which may represent the first northern high-latitude record of near-freezing temperatures for the early Cenozoic. Besides the findings of probably ice-rafted erratic clasts in the Paleocene and Eocene sandstones and shales, we note especially the occurrence of glendonites which are pseudomorphs of calcite after ikaite (calcium carbonate hexahydrate). We measured the chemical composition of Svalbard glendonites which is almost identical to that of similar pseudomorphs from the Lower Cretaceaous of Northern Canada. Mass spectrometric analyses of the glendonite calcite gave very low carbon isotope values. These values suggest a provenance of the calcium carbonate from marine organic carbon and connect our glendonites to the precursor mineral ikaite which has similar low values. Since a variety of studies has demonstrated that ikaite is stable only at temperatures close to freezing point, we have to infer low temperatures also for the deepositional environment of which the sediments were deposited that now hold glendonites. These results imply the occurrence of cooling phases episodically during the warm background climate of the Paleocene and Eocene, suggesting that temperature variability was much greater than previously recognized.

Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Paulo

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

2017-08-24

Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

The Cenozoic geological evolution of the Central and Northern North Sea based on seismic sequence stratigraphy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jordt, Henrik

1996-03-01

This thesis represents scientific results from seismic sequence stratigraphic investigations. These investigations and results are integrated into an ongoing mineralogical study of the Cenozoic deposits. the main results from this mineralogical study are presented and discussed. The seismic investigations have provided boundary conditions for a forward modelling study of the Cenozoic depositional history. Results from the forward modelling are presented as they emphasise the influence of tectonics on sequence development. The tectonic motions described were important for the formation of the large oil and gas fields in the North Sea.

Analysing the Cenozoic depositional record

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goledowski, Bartosz; Clausen, O.R.; Nielsen, S.B.

2008-01-01

It is well known that sediment deposition in the North Sea and on the Norwegian Shelf varied significantly during the Cenozoic as a consequence of varying erosion rate mainly in Western Scandinavia, in Scotland and in the Alps. Recent results have demonstrated that a causal relationship exists...... of variations in erosion rates. Here we present the rationale behind the project, the data available and some preliminary results. The dense seismic and well coverage in the area makes it possible to estimate the rate of deposition of matrix mass. Assuming that sediment storage is not important, this provides...... models. The matrix mass deposition history will be compared with the paleoclimate record (e.g. oxygen isotope curves) to see if the previously observed correlation in the eastern North Sea can be extended to other ages and locations.  ...

Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

Science.gov (United States)

Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

2017-04-01

Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

From School of Rock to Building Core Knowledge: Teaching about Cenozoic climate change with data and case studies from the primary literature

Science.gov (United States)

Leckie, R. M.; St John, K. K.; Jones, M. H.; Pound, K. S.; Krissek, L. A.; Peart, L. W.

2011-12-01

The School of Rock (SoR) began in 2005 as a pilot geoscience professional development program for K-12 teachers and informal educators aboard the JOIDES Resolution (JR). Since then, the highly successful SoR program, sponsored by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership's Deep Earth Academy, has conducted on-shore professional development at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) core repository in College Station, TX, and on the JR. The success of the SoR program stems from the natural synergy that develops between research scientists and educators when their combined pedagogical skills and scientific knowledge are used to uncover a wealth of scientific ocean drilling discoveries and research findings. Educators are challenged with authentic inquiry based on sediment archives; these lessons from the past are then made transferable to the general public and to classrooms through the creation of age-appropriate student-active learning materials (http://www.oceanleadership.org/education/deep-earth-academy/educators/classroom-activities/). This science made accessible approach was the basis for a successful NSF Course Curriculum and Laboratory Improvement (CCLI) proposal to develop teaching materials for use at the college level. Our Building Core Knowledge project resulted in a series of 14 linked, yet independent, inquiry-based exercise modules around the theme of Reconstructing Earth's Climate History. All of the exercises build upon authentic data from peer reviewed scientific publications. These multiple part modules cover fundamental paleoclimate principles, tools and proxies, and Cenozoic case studies. It is important to teach students how we know what we know. For example, paleoclimate records must be systematically described, ages must be determined, and indirect evidence (i.e., proxies) of past climate must be analyzed. Much like the work of a detective, geoscientists and paleoclimatologists reconstruct what happened in the past, and when and how it

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2011-01-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

Late Cenozoic History of the Genus Micromys (Mammalia, Rodentia) in Central Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horáček, I.; Knitlová, M.; Wagner, Jan; Kordos, L.; Nadachowski, A.

2013-01-01

Roč. 8, č. 5 (2013), e62498 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/0184 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : Mammalia * Rodentia * Genus Micromys * Late Cenozoic Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2018-06-01

Over recent decades, regions of West and Central Africa have experienced different and significant changes in climatic patterns, which have significantly impacted hydrological regimes. Such impacts, however, are not fully understood at the regional scale, largely because of scarce hydroclimatic data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to (a) assemble a new, robust, reconstructed streamflow dataset of 152 gauging stations; (b) quantify changes in streamflow over 1950-2005 period, using these newly reconstructed datasets; (c) significantly reveal trends and variability in streamflow over West and Central Africa based on new reconstructions; and (d) assess the robustness of this dataset by comparing the results with those identified in key climatic drivers (e.g. precipitation and temperature) over the region. Gap filling methods applied to monthly time series (1950-2005) yielded robust results (median Kling-Gupta Efficiency >0.75). The study underlines a good agreement between precipitation and streamflow trends and reveals contrasts between western Africa (negative trends) and Central Africa (positive trends) in the 1950s and 1960s. Homogenous dry conditions of the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by reduced significant negative trends resulting from quasi-decadal modulations of the trend, are replaced by wetter conditions in the recent period (1993-2005). The effect of this rainfall recovery (which extends to West and Central Africa) on increased river flows are further amplified by land use change in some Sahelian basins. This is partially offset, however, by higher potential evapotranspiration rates over parts of Niger and Nigeria. Crucially, the new reconstructed streamflow datasets presented here will be available for both the scientific community and water resource managers.

Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Mark, B. G.; Burns, P.; Portocarrero, C.

2013-01-01

The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer) tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temporal variability in regions with complex topography. Here, we present an approach on how to deal with these constraints. For the Cordillera Vilcanota (southern Peruvian Andes), which is the second largest glacierized cordillera in Peru (after the Cordillera Blanca) and also comprises the Quelccaya Ice Cap, we assimilate a comprehensive multi-decadal collection of available glacier and climate data from multiple sources (satellite images, meteorological station data and climate reanalysis), and analyze them for respective changes in glacier area and volume and related trends in air temperature, precipitation and in a more general manner for specific humidity. While we found only marginal glacier changes between 1962 and 1985, there has been a massive ice loss since 1985 (about 30% of area and about 45% of volume). These high numbers corroborate studies from other glacierized cordilleras in Peru. The climate data show overall a moderate increase in air temperature, mostly weak and not significant trends for precipitation sums and probably cannot in full explain the observed substantial ice loss. Therefore, the likely increase of specific humidity in the upper troposphere, where the glaciers are located, is further discussed and we conclude that it played a major role in the observed massive ice loss of the Cordillera Vilcanota over the past decades.

Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Salzmann

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temporal variability in regions with complex topography. Here, we present an approach on how to deal with these constraints. For the Cordillera Vilcanota (southern Peruvian Andes, which is the second largest glacierized cordillera in Peru (after the Cordillera Blanca and also comprises the Quelccaya Ice Cap, we assimilate a comprehensive multi-decadal collection of available glacier and climate data from multiple sources (satellite images, meteorological station data and climate reanalysis, and analyze them for respective changes in glacier area and volume and related trends in air temperature, precipitation and in a more general manner for specific humidity. While we found only marginal glacier changes between 1962 and 1985, there has been a massive ice loss since 1985 (about 30% of area and about 45% of volume. These high numbers corroborate studies from other glacierized cordilleras in Peru. The climate data show overall a moderate increase in air temperature, mostly weak and not significant trends for precipitation sums and probably cannot in full explain the observed substantial ice loss. Therefore, the likely increase of specific humidity in the upper troposphere, where the glaciers are located, is further discussed and we conclude that it played a major role in the observed massive ice loss of the Cordillera Vilcanota over the past decades.

Long-Term Trends and Temporal Synchrony in Plankton Richness, Diversity and Biomass Driven by Re-Oligotrophication and Climate across 17 Danish Lakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korhan Özkan

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A two-decade (1989–2008 time series of lake phyto- and zooplankton, water characteristics and climate in 17 Danish lakes was analysed to examine the long term changes and the effects of lake restoration efforts. The analyses of the pair-wise correlations across time series revealed a strong synchrony in climatic variables among the lakes. A significant, but weak increase in air temperature was observed and resulted in a corresponding increase in surface water temperature only in summer. Lake physico-chemical variables had weaker synchrony than climatic variables. Synchrony in water temperature and stratification was stronger than lake chemistry as the former is mostly affected by atmospheric energy flux. Synchrony in the taxonomic richness of the plankton groups and phytoplankton biomass was apparent, to a similar degree as observed for lake chemistry. The synchrony and the temporal trends in lake chemistry and plankton were more pronounced for the lakes with strong re-oligotrophication. Phytoplankton biomass decreased and plankton richness increased in these lakes, with a shift from Chlorophyta dominance towards more heterogeneous phytoplankton communities. Notably, a widespread significant positive trend in plankton richness was observed not only in lakes with strong re-oligotrophication but across all lakes. The widespread increase in plankton richness coincided with widespread decrease in phosphate and total nitrogen concentrations, as well as with the trends in climate indicating a likely joint effect of nutrient reduction and climate in driving lake plankton. However, temporal changes and synchrony as well as the recovery of richness and composition of lake plankton more coherently corresponded with the nutrient loading reduction across the Danish landscape, while the role of climate control of the lake plankton was less pronounced.

Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

2007-01-01

observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

Structural evolution of Cenozoic basins in northeastern Tunisia, in response to sinistral strike-slip movement on the El Alia-Teboursouk Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Bejaoui, Hamida; Aïfa, Tahar; Melki, Fetheddine; Zargouni, Fouad

2017-10-01

This paper resolves the structural complexity of Cenozoic sedimentary basins in northeastern Tunisia. These basins trend NE-SW to ∼ E-W, and are bordered by old fracture networks. Detailed descriptions of the structural features in outcrop and in subsurface data suggest that the El Alia-Teboursouk Fault zone in the Bizerte area evolved through a series of tectonic events. Cross sections, lithostratigraphic correlations, and interpretation of seismic profiles through the basins show evidence for: (i) a Triassic until Jurassic-Early Cretaceous rifting phase that induced lateral variations of facies and strata thicknesses; (ii) a set of faults oriented NE-SW, NW-SE, N-S, and E-W that guided sediment accumulation in pull-apart basins, which were subject to compressive and transpressive deformation during Eocene (Lutetian-Priabonian), Miocene (Tortonian), and Pliocene-Quaternary; and (iii) NNW-SSE to NS contractional events that occurred during the Late Pliocene. Part of the latest phase has been the formation of different synsedimentary folded structures with significant subsidence inversion. Such events have been responsible for the reactivation of inherited faults, and the intrusion of Triassic evaporites, ensuring the role of a slip layer. The combined effects of the different paleoconstraints and halokinetic movements are at the origin of the evolution of these pull-apart basins. The subsurface data suggest that an important fault displacement occurred during the Mesozoic-Cenozoic. The patterns of sediment accumulation in the different basins reflect a high activity of deep ancient faults.

Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Piani

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon, to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.

Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W

2011-01-01

Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

Growth trends and climate responses of Norway spruce along elevational gradients in East-Central Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ponočná, T.; Spyt, B.; Kaczka, R. J.; Büntgen, Ulf; Treml, V.

2016-01-01

Roč. 30, č. 5 (2016), s. 1633-1646 ISSN 0931-1890 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : abies l. karst. * tree-ring chronologies * basal area increment * radial growth * forest growth * altitudinal gradient * sudetes mountains * northern europe * tatra mountains * alps * climate change * mountain forests * picea abies * radial growth * rree rings * trend preservation Subject RIV: GK - Forestry Impact factor: 1.842, year: 2016

Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

2017-04-01

In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

Fires in the Cenozoic: a late flowering of flammable ecosystems

OpenAIRE

Bond, William J.

2015-01-01

Modern flammable ecosystems include tropical and subtropical savannas, steppe grasslands, boreal forests, and temperate sclerophyll shrublands. Despite the apparent fiery nature of much contemporary vegetation, terrestrial fossil evidence would suggest we live in a time of low fire activity relative to the deep past. The inertinite content of coal, fossil charcoal, is strikingly low from the Eocene to the Pleistocene and no charcoalified mesofossils have been reported for the Cenozoic. Marine...

A synthesis of Cenozoic sedimentation in the North Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anell, Ingrid Anna Margareta; Thybo, Hans; Rasmussen, E.S.

2012-01-01

study provides a regional synthesis of sedimentation based on a comprehensive interpretation of a regionally covering reflection seismic data set. We relate observations of sediment characteristics and unconformities to the geological evolution. The timing, regional expression and stratigraphic...... characteristics of many unconformities indicate that they were generated by eustatic sea-level fall, often in conjunction with other processes. Early Cenozoic unconformities, however, relate to tectonism associated with the opening of the North Atlantic. From observation on a regional scale, we infer...

Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research.

Science.gov (United States)

Natalia, Kukarenko

2011-01-01

Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. Global Health Action 2011. © 2011 Kukarenko

The gap in the Arctic Cenozoic Record: Expect the Unexpected

Science.gov (United States)

Sangiorgi, F.; Brumsack, H.; Schouten, S.; Brinkhuis, H.; Kaminski, M. A.; Reichart, G.; Stickley, C. E.; Willard, D. A.; Sinninghe Damste', J. S.

2006-12-01

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302, a.k.a. the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX), drilled more than 400 meters below the seafloor at the central Lomonosov Ridge, ca 250 km from the modern North Pole in water depths of about 1300 m. The partially recovered sediments provide a unique record of the geological and paleoceanographical evolution of the Arctic Ocean during the Cenozoic. The record indicates a transition from a "greenhouse world", characterized by a relative shallow marine setting, with organic-rich sediment and frequent brackish or even fresh surface waters during the latest Palaeocene and the early Eocene, to an "icehouse world" of hemipelagic sedimentation affected by the occurrence of sea ice from the middle Miocene to present. Much to our surprise, these two states are separated by a major hiatus, not obvious from the seismic record and the lithology of the cores, spanning at least 25 Ma as derived from dinocyst and benthic foraminifer stratigraphies. These testify that deposits of probable late early Miocene age directly overlie early middle Eocene sediments. To unravel the nature of the hiatus, we performed a multiproxy micropaleontological and geochemical study on the surrounding record, i.e. lithological units 1/6, 1/5 and 1/4, where the sediment changes from homogeneous dark into a cm-scaled alternation ("zebra-like") black and grey bands to light grey, blue and reddish-brown. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts, pollen and spores, benthic foraminifera, inorganic and organic geochemistry and siliceous remains reveal conspicuous changes, suggesting a transition from brackish-freshwater to shallow-lagoonal and to open marine environments. These environmental turnovers, coupled with the occurrence of such a large hiatus, cannot be due to climatic shifts alone, but suggest that major tectonic rearrangements likely changed the depositional setting. On-going organic geochemical analysis will be

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Evidence From Svalbard for Cool Episodes in Early Tertiary Arctic Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Spielhagen, R. F.; Tripati, A.; Mac Niocaill, C.

2008-12-01

The Arctic is a climatically sensitive and important region. However, very little is known about the climatic and oceanographic evolution of the area, particularly prior to the Neogene. Until recently, the Arctic was assumed to be characterized by relatively warm conditions during the early Cenozoic. The Early Tertiary sedimentary sequence on Svalbard contains several layers with coal seams and broad-leaved plants which were commonly accepted as indicators of a generally temperate-warm climate. Here we report on the intermittent occurrence of certain temperature indicators in the succession, which may represent the first northern high- latitude record of near-freezing temperatures for the early Cenozoic. Besides the findings of probably ice- rafted erratic clasts in the Paleocene and Eocene sandstones and shales, we note especially the occurrence of glendonites which are pseudomorphs of calcite after ikaite (calcium carbonate hexahydrate). Stratigraphic control for the most important glendonite layers was improved by paleomagnetic investigations on the host sediment. We measured the chemical composition of Svalbard glendonites which is almost identical to that of similar pseudomorphs from the Lower Cretaceaous of Northern Canada. Mass spectrometric analyses of the glendonite calcite gave very low carbon isotope values. These values suggest a provenance of the calcium carbonate from marine organic carbon and connect our glendonites to the precursor mineral ikaite which has similar low values. Since a variety of studies has demonstrated that ikaite is stable only at temperatures close to freezing point, we have to infer low temperatures also for the deepositional environment of which the sediments were deposited that now hold glendonites. These results imply the occurrence of cooling phases episodically during the warm background climate of the Paleocene and Eocene, suggesting that temperature variability was much greater than previously recognized.

Determining Water Quality Trends in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed in the Face of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Kynett, K.; Azimi-Gaylon, S.; Doidic, C.

2014-12-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas and is a resource of local, State, and national significance. The Delta is simultaneously the most critical component of California's water supply, a primary focus of the state's ecological conservation measures, and a vital resource deeply imperiled by degraded water quality. Delta waterbodies are identified as impaired by salinity, excess nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, pathogens, pesticides, heavy metals, and other contaminants. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the impacts of existing stressors in the Delta and magnify the challenges of managing this natural resource. A clear understanding of the current state of the watershed is needed to better inform scientists, decision makers, and the public about potential impacts from climate change. The Delta Watershed Initiative Network (Delta WIN) leverages the ecological benefits of healthy watersheds, and enhances, expands and creates opportunities for greater watershed health by coordinating with agencies, established programs, and local organizations. At this critical junction, Delta WIN is coordinating data integration and analysis to develop better understanding of the existing and emerging water quality concerns. As first steps, Delta WIN is integrating existing water quality data, analyzing trends, and monitoring to fill data gaps and to evaluate indicators of climate change impacts. Available data will be used for trend analysis; Delta WIN will continue to monitor where data is incomplete and new questions arise. Understanding how climate change conditions may affect water quality will be used to inform efforts to build resilience and maintain water quality levels which sustain aquatic life and human needs. Assessments of historical and new data will aid in recognition of potential climate change impacts and in initiating implementation of best management practices in collaboration with

Zircon (U-Th)/He Thermochronometric Constraints on Himalayan Thrust Belt Exhumation, Bedrock Weathering, and Cenozoic Seawater Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Colleps, Cody L.; McKenzie, N. Ryan; Stockli, Daniel F.; Hughes, Nigel C.; Singh, Birendra P.; Webb, A. Alexander G.; Myrow, Paul M.; Planavsky, Noah J.; Horton, Brian K.

2018-01-01

Shifts in global seawater 187Os/188Os and 87Sr/86Sr are often utilized as proxies to track global weathering processes responsible for CO2 fluctuations in Earth history, particularly climatic cooling during the Cenozoic. It has been proposed, however, that these isotopic records instead reflect the weathering of chemically distinctive Himalayan lithologies exposed at the surface. We present new zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometric and detrital zircon U-Pb geochronologic evidence from the Himalaya of northwest India to explore these contrasting interpretations concerning the driving mechanisms responsible for these seawater records. Our data demonstrate in-sequence southward thrust propagation with rapid exhumation of Lesser Himalayan strata enriched in labile 187Os and relatively less in radiogenic 87Sr at ˜16 Ma, which directly corresponds with coeval shifts in seawater 187Os/188Os and 87Sr/86Sr. Results presented here provide substantial evidence that the onset of exhumation of 187Os-enriched Lesser Himalayan strata could have significantly impacted the marine 187Os/188Os record at 16 Ma. These results support the hypothesis that regional weathering of isotopically unique source rocks can drive seawater records independently from shifts in global-scale weathering rates, hindering the utility of these records as reliable proxies to track global weathering processes and climate in deep geologic time.

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Kivinen

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

The Amazonian Craton and its influence on past fluvial systems (Mesozoic-Cenozoic, Amazonia)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoorn, C.; Roddaz, M.; Dino, R.; Soares, E.; Uba, C.; Ochoa-Lozano, D.; Mapes, R.; Hoorn, C.; Wesselingh, F.P.

2010-01-01

The Amazonian Craton is an old geological feature of Archaean/Proterozoic age that has determined the character of fluvial systems in Amazonia throughout most of its past. This situation radically changed during the Cenozoic, when uplift of the Andes reshaped the relief and drainage patterns of

Post Cretaceous cooling trend documented in the gastropods (Turritella Sp.) from the Cenozoic startigraphic successions of India

Science.gov (United States)

Banerjee, Y.; Ghosh, P.; Halder, K.; Malarkodi, N.; Pathak, P.

2017-12-01

The aftermath of the Himalyan orogeny and subsequent cooling is documented in the deep sea sedimentary record from the Oceanic realm (1). Here we attempt to reconstruct the temperature pattern based on marine gastropods i.e. Turritella sp. which became abundant during the post Cretaceous period and have successfully been used for the reconstruction of climate by measuring the stable isotopic composition (2,3,4). Well preserved specimens of Cretaceous Turritella from the Rajamundry Infratrappean beds and those from the Miocene, Holocene succession of Kutch, western India were analysed along with specimen from the modern time scale (also from Kutch). The Cretaceous, early to mid Miocene, early Holocene and modern shells recorded δ13C variability from 0.36 to 4.94‰, -1.83 to -4.83‰, -3.26 to 0.40‰, -1.47 to -4.70‰ respectively suggesting drop in the productivity during mid Miocene and subsequent period of rapid growth. The Variability in terms of δ18O ranges from -2.28 to -4.99‰, -2.66 to -7.06‰, -2.86 to 0.96‰, -1.05 to -3.23‰ for the Cretaceous, early to mid Miocene, early Holocene and modern shells respectively. Corbula sp. collected from the same strata with that of the early to mid Holocene Turritella showed a similar δ13C and δ18O values denoting similar environmental condition during deposition. Absence of any significant correlation between δ13C vs δ18O support equilibrium precipitation of shell growth bands. We used Epstein oxygen isotope thermometry to derive temperature from the oxygen isotope of carbonate and adopted water isotopic composition (1‰ for the Cretaceous and -0.7‰ for the Miocene) from the literature. Our observation captured an overall cooling trend from the Cretaceous to the Holocene time period (especially in between mid Miocene to Holocene) and a subsequent warming trend in modern time. Validation with other thermometry method will be displayed at the time of presentation. References: [1] Zachos et al., 2001

Mesozoic and Cenozoic uplift and exhumation of the Bogda Mountain, NW China: Evidence from apatite fission track analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenhao Tang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Apatite fission track (AFT analysis on samples collected from a Paleozoic series is used to constrain the cooling history of the Bogda Mountain, northwest China. AFT ages range from 136.2 to 85.6 Ma and are younger than rock depositional ages and the mean confined track lengths (11.0–13.2 μm mostly showing unimodal distribution are shorten, indicating significant track-annealing. Thermal histories modeling based on the distribution of fission-track lengths combined with the regional geological data show that two rapid cooling phases occurred in the latest Jurassic–early Cretaceous and the Oligocene–Miocene. Those new data together with previous published data show that the AFT ages become younger from the southwest to northeast in the western Bogda Mountain and its adjacent areas. The fission-track ages of the southwest area are relatively older (>100 Ma, recording the earlier rapid uplift phase during the late Jurassic–Cretaceous, while the ages in the north piedmont of the Bogda Mountain (namely the northeast part are younger (<60 Ma, mainly reflecting the later rapid uplift phase in the Oligocene–Miocene. The trend of younger AFT ages towards the northeast might be explained by post-Cretaceous large-scale crustal tilting towards the southwest. In the thrust fault-dominated northern limbs of the Bogda Mountain, AFT ages reveal a discontinuous pattern with age-jumps across the major fault zones, showing a possible strata tilting across each thrust faults due to the thrust ramps during the Cenozoic. The two rapid uplift stages might be related to the accretion and collision in the southern margin of the Asian continent during the late Jurassic and late Cenozoic, respectively.

From Oil Crisis to Climate Change. Understanding CO2 Emission Trends in IEA Countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unander, F.

2003-11-01

OECD CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased 13% between 1990 and 2001. This signals an important shift since, over the 1973 to 1990 period, emissions only increased by 3.4%. As a result, CO2 emissions from energy use (fuel combustion) contributed 81.1% of total OECD greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 compared to 77.7% in 1990. As these figures make clear, reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion constitutes a key challenge to combat climate change. Developing and successfully implementing the most efficient policies for reducing CO2 emissions requires a good understanding of how factors such as income, prices, demography, economic structure, lifestyle, climate, energy efficiency and fuel mix affect energy use and resulting CO2 emissions. This paper presents selected results from the analysis of CO2 developments included in the IEA publication 'From Oil Crisis to Climate Challenge: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries'. The paper gives a brief overview of aggregate CO2 emission trends and of how recent developments in selected IEA countries compare to emissions levels implied by the Kyoto targets. A deeper understanding of the aggregate trends is provided by showing results from a decomposition analysis and by discussing developments in key end-use sectors. The full publication presents a more detailed analysis of how various factors have shaped energy use patterns and CO2 emissions since 1973. The analysis draws on a newly developed database with detailed information on energy use in the manufacturing, household, service and transport sectors. The database represents the most disaggregated information available on a consistent basis across countries and sectors. The study uses quantitative measures to illustrate the forces that drive or restrain energy use. These measures - or indicators - include: activities such as manufacturing output or heated-floor-area of homes; structural developments such as changes in manufacturing output mix or changes in the

Uranium and thorium in Cenozoic basaltods of Kamchatka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puzankov, Yu.M.

1984-01-01

Regularities in distribution of radioactive elements (RAE) in basaltoids of Kamchatka have been analyzed. The RAE concentration in samples was determined by γ-spectrometric method. The results compared with the instrumental neutron-activation analysis data are found to be in agreement. Results of evaluating the average contents of U, Th and roch-forming elements in ce-- nozoic basaltoids are presented. The radiogeochemical data enable to associate the origin of the Kamchatka Cenozoic basaltoids with both fractional melting of the upper mantle depleted of radioactive elements and the development of magmatic chambers in submerged blocks of the Pre-Cretaceous melanocratic basement the composition of which is close to oceanic tholeiite

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

ClimatePad: Enabling public exploration of climate data

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, J. E.; Chapman, W. L.

2012-12-01

Informal learners interested in climate issues can find a wealth of information in the print and online media related to climate and climate change. Throughout these resources, the equal use of generic terms like 'global warming' and 'climate change' suggest a level of nuance in the science that is not easy to convey in this conventional media. Perhaps more than any other discipline, climate literacy has the most potential to be enhanced via the process of cognitive construction and reconstruction, rather than simple transmission of knowledge. Constructionism suggests that meaningful learning happens most effectively if the learner is actively engaged in constructing a product in the real world rather than absorbing information passively. Recent technological innovations have introduced mobile computing devices with sufficient power to do serious data analysis. The potential of these devices to augment climate literacy by turning citizens into scientists has yet to be exploited. We introduce ClimatePad, an iPad application that permits students and public to actively browse climate datasets, construct trends, plot time series, create composite differences and view animations of real-world climate data. Interactions with the ClimatePad permits varying the starting and ending dates of trends and differences. Climate analysis maps and animations can be customized with different color palettes, enticing the user to delve into and absorb the subtleties of the regional and temporal variations of the recent climate record. Finally, user-generated climate visualizations created with ClimatePad can be emailed to friends and shared via Facebook, entraining even more active learners.

Geochemistry and petrology of pyroxenite xenoliths from Cenozoic alkaline basalts, Bohemian Massif

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ackerman, Lukáš; Špaček, Petr; Medaris Jr., G.; Hegner, E.; Svojtka, Martin; Ulrych, Jaromír

2012-01-01

Roč. 57, č. 4 (2012), s. 199-219 ISSN 1802-6222 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA205/09/1170 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516; CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 ; RVO:67985530 Keywords : pyroxenite * xenolith * Cenozoic * basalt * Sr-Nd isotopes * geothermobarometry Subject RIV: DD - Geochemistry Impact factor: 0.804, year: 2012

Study on the relationships between the structural evolution and sandstone-type uranium mineralization in mesozoic era and cenozoic era in the northern of Chaidam basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Lin; Song Zhe; Song Xiansheng; Feng Wei

2008-01-01

By detailed expounding the characteristics of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic structural evolution in northern of Chaidam basin, the author inquires into its relationships with the sandstone-type uranium mineralization, analyzes the prospect of forming uranium deposit, and thinks that the Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata are mainly controlled by the tectonic role of the later Yanshan movement and the later Cenozoic era. The north-west palaeo-structural slope belt is formed in the later Cretacous Epoch that is favorable for developing palaeo-interlayer oxidized zone. After the slightly extensional role of the oldest Tertiary and the early Plioeene, the middle and lower Jurassic were buried, and the block-imbricated slope belts are formed in the tectonic movement of the later Cenozoic, which are favorable for developing recent interlayer oxidized zone. According to drilling, it has the conditions for forming palaeo-recent interlayer oxidized zone sandstone-type uranium deposit at the northern of Chaidam basin. Finally, the author lays his finger on the prospecting of uranium. (authors)

Methane hydrates in quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennett, J. P.; Hill, T. M.; Behl, R. J.

2005-01-01

The hydrate reservoir in marine sediments is known to contain a large volume of exchangeable carbon stored as solid methane hydrate and associated free gas. This reservoir has been shown to be potentially unstable in response to changing intermediate water temperature and sea level (pressure). Evidence continues to grow for past episodes of major methane release at times of climatic warming. Yet few studies of late Quaternary climate change include methane hydrates as an integral part of the global climate system, in spite of the largest known oscillations at this time in sea level and upper ocean temperature changes for the Cenozoic or earlier, conditions that favor instability of the methane hydrate reservoir. Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane recorded in polar ice cores are widely believed to have resulted, not from ocean-floor methane degassing, but instead from continental wetland activation, a hypothesis thus far unsupported by geological data. Furthermore, as part of this Wetland Methane Hypothesis, the abrupt methane increases have been seen as a response to climatic warming rather than contributing significantly to the change. An alternative view (formulated as the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis) is that the speed, magnitude and timing of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past are consistent with the process of major degassing of methane hydrates. We summarize aspects of this hypothesis here and needs to test this hypothesis. (Author)

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osborne, T M; Wheeler, T R

2013-01-01

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability. (letter)

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Biomarkers and their stable isotopes in Cenozoic sediments above the Chicxulub impact crater

Science.gov (United States)

Grice, K.; Schaefer, B.; Coolen, M.; Greenwood, P. F.; Scarlett, A. G.; Freeman, K.; Lyons, S. L.

2017-12-01

The most widely accepted hypothesis for the cause of the End-Cretaceous mass extinction (K/Pg event) 66 Ma ago is the impact of an extra-terrestrial body, which produced the 200 km wide Chicxulub impact structure. This event led to an extinction of 75% of all species on Earth. The massive extinction in the terrestrial realm is partly attributed to the intense heat pulse, the widespread wild fires caused by the impact and the ensuing darkness, as dust and sulfate aerosols blocked out the sun leading to photosynthesis shut off and productivity collapse in both the terrestrial and marine realms. The marine realm may additionally have experienced ocean acidification resulting in mass extinction of plankton (foraminifera and coccolithophorids) and marine reptiles. Samples from the Cenozoic marine sediments including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) have been extracted for hydrocarbons and analysed to investigate the molecular and isotopic organic record of biotic and environmental change after the K/Pg boundary event. Specific biomarker-precursor relationship has been established by the direct correlation of sedimentary biomarkers with the biochemicals (e.g. lipids) of extant biological systems. The structural characterisation of biomarkers as well as their stable isotopic compositions (C, H and N) are used to evaluate the source(s) of organic matter (OM) and to reconstruct paleoenvironmental depositional conditions. Throughout the Cenozoic sediments (including the PETM) the biomarker distribution suggests a variation in the source of organic matter from terrestrial to marine. Furthermore, the presence of sulfurised biomarkers indicates euxinic environmental conditions at the time of deposition. Biomarker distributions indicative of green sulfur bacteria reveal persistent photic zone euxinic conditions at several intervals in the Cenozoic. Further compound specific isotope analyses will provide insights into the long-term biogeochemical cycling of C, H and S

N2-fixing tropical legume evolution: a contributor to enhanced weathering through the Cenozoic?

Science.gov (United States)

Epihov, Dimitar Z; Batterman, Sarah A; Hedin, Lars O; Leake, Jonathan R; Smith, Lisa M; Beerling, David J

2017-08-16

Fossil and phylogenetic evidence indicates legume-rich modern tropical forests replaced Late Cretaceous palm-dominated tropical forests across four continents during the early Cenozoic (58-42 Ma). Tropical legume trees can transform ecosystems via their ability to fix dinitrogen (N 2 ) and higher leaf N compared with non-legumes (35-65%), but it is unclear how their evolutionary rise contributed to silicate weathering, the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Here we hypothesize that the increasing abundance of N 2 -fixing legumes in tropical forests amplified silicate weathering rates by increased input of fixed nitrogen (N) to terrestrial ecosystems via interrelated mechanisms including increasing microbial respiration and soil acidification, and stimulating forest net primary productivity. We suggest the high CO 2 early Cenozoic atmosphere further amplified legume weathering. Evolution of legumes with high weathering rates was probably driven by their high demand for phosphorus and micronutrients required for N 2 -fixation and nodule formation. © 2017 The Author(s).

Late cenozoic magmatism in the South Patagonian batholith: SHRIMP U-Pb zircon age evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fanning, C.M; Herve, F; Pankhurst, R.J; Thomson, S; Faundez, V

2001-01-01

The North Patagonian Batholith (NPB) has a zonal age pattern which includes a well defined belt of Miocene and Mio-Pliocene plutons in its central portion (Pankhurst et al., 1999) which are spatially, and probably genetically related to the Liquine-Ofqui Fault Zone. Previous geochronological studies in the Southern Patagonian Batholith (SPB), as summarized by Bruce et al. (1991), have yielded 9 late Cenozoic K-Ar or Ar-Ar ages out of a total of 116 age determinations. None of these young ages correspond to U-Pb determinations on zircons, and some of the young ages correspond to satellite plutons east of the SPB proper, such as the Torres del Paine intrusion. In this paper we present the first late Cenozoic SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages in the area of the SPB. The morphology of the analysed zircon crystals is described and leads to some inferences on the methodology and on the geological interpretation of the obtained ages (au)

Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

2014-10-01

Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Kent

2013-03-01

-feedback mechanism that (usually inhibits the complete collapse of atmospheric pCO2 is the accelerating formation of thick cation-deficient soils that retard chemical weathering of the underlying bedrock. Nevertheless, equatorial climate seems to be relatively insensitive to pCO2 greenhouse forcing and thus with availability of some rejuvenating relief as in arc terranes or thick basaltic provinces, silicate weathering in this venue is not subject to a strong negative feedback, providing an avenue for ice ages. The safety valve that prevents excessive atmospheric pCO2 levels is the triggering of silicate weathering of continental areas and basaltic provinces in the temperate humid belt. Excess organic carbon burial seems to have played a negligible role in atmospheric pCO2 over the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

Agricultural development in the context of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

2012-12-01

Global climate change and continued intensification of agriculture are two "mega-trends" that will impact agricultural systems in the coming decades. While often these two trends are analyzed in isolation, recent work describes how climate change has historically offset some crop yield gains that would have otherwise occurred. Here we spatially analyze how these interactions between climate change and agricultural development may continue to 2025. We highlight areas that will be hit hardest by climate change and require aggressive management changes, as well as areas where large productivity increases are likely given current trends. To carry out our analysis we rely on a recently developed climate analog model to produce projections of climate-induced yield changes, projections of business-as-usual crop yield trends utilizing time-series data from ~13,500 agricultural census units, and published estimates of possible crop yield increases from aggressive intervention to close yield gaps. We find that a rich picture of agriculture in 2025 emerges when analyzing these multiple critical drivers. In many regions, existing yield trends or more aggressive management interventions (closing yield gaps) can overcome negative impacts from climate change. Thus, intensification can provide a buffer from near-term climate impacts, but it is unclear how long society may be able to rely on this buffering capacity.

Trends in reports on climate change in 2009-2011 in the Korean press based on daily newspapers' ownership structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jihye; Hong, Yeon-pyo; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-03-01

The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure.

Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

Science.gov (United States)

Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

2007-05-01

Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

2018-06-02

Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

2017-06-19

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2015-12-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Donovan A.; Kovach, Ryan; Vulstek, Scott C.; Joyce, John E.; Tallmon, David A.

2017-01-01

Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Pacific salmon prey and examined how predator–prey synchrony has been influenced by climate change. We demonstrate that Dolly Varden have become increasingly mismatched with spring downstream migrations of abundant pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) juveniles. However, Dolly Varden have remained matched with fall upstream migrations of spawning Pacific salmon, including coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch), sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), and pink salmon. Downstream predator–prey migration synchrony decreased over time and with higher temperatures, particularly with pink salmon. In contrast, upstream migration synchrony was temporally stable and increased with rising temperatures. Differing trends in Dolly Varden predator–prey synchrony may be explained by the direct use of salmon to cue upstream migration, but not downstream migration. Overall, we show that climate change can have differing impacts on predator–prey synchrony across life-history stages.

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Cahynová, Monika; Huth, R.

2016-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River basin (West Africa): a combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

Science.gov (United States)

Markantonis, Vasileios; Farinosi, Fabio; Dondeynaz, Celine; Ameztoy, Iban; Pastori, Marco; Marletta, Luca; Ali, Abdou; Carmona Moreno, Cesar

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

Deciphering the contrasting climatic trends between the central Himalaya and Karakoram with 36 years of WRF simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest

2018-02-01

Glaciers over the central Himalaya have retreated at particularly rapid rates in recent decades, while glacier mass in the Karakoram appears stable. To address the meteorological factors associated with this contrast, 36 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalyses (CFSR) are dynamically downscaled from 1979 to 2015 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over High Mountain Asia at convection permitting grid spacing (6.7 km). In all seasons, CFSR shows an anti-cyclonic warming trend over the majority of High Mountain Asia, but distinctive differences are observed between the central Himalaya and Karakoram in winter and summer. In winter and summer, the central Himalaya has been under the influence of an anti-cyclonic trend, which in summer the downscaling shows has reduced cloud cover, leading to significant warming and reduced snowfall in recent years. Contrastingly, the Karakoram has been near the boundary between large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic trends and has not experienced significant snowfall or temperature changes in winter or summer, despite significant trends in summer of increasing cloud cover and decreasing shortwave radiation. This downscaling does not identify any trends over glaciers in closer neighboring regions to the Karakoram (e.g., Hindu Kush and the western Himalaya) where glaciers have retreated as over the central Himalaya, indicating that there are other factors driving glacier mass balance that this downscaling is unable to capture. While this study does not fully explain the Karakoram anomaly, the identified trends detail important meteorological contributions to the observed differences between central Himalaya and Karakoram glacier evolution in recent decades.

Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

Unveiling the diversification dynamics of Australasian predaceous diving beetles in the Cenozoic.

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Toussaint, Emmanuel F A; Condamine, Fabien L; Hawlitschek, Oliver; Watts, Chris H; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

2015-01-01

During the Cenozoic, Australia experienced major climatic shifts that have had dramatic ecological consequences for the modern biota. Mesic tropical ecosystems were progressively restricted to the coasts and replaced by arid-adapted floral and faunal communities. Whilst the role of aridification has been investigated in a wide range of terrestrial lineages, the response of freshwater clades remains poorly investigated. To gain insights into the diversification processes underlying a freshwater radiation, we studied the evolutionary history of the Australasian predaceous diving beetles of the tribe Hydroporini (147 described species). We used an integrative approach including the latest methods in phylogenetics, divergence time estimation, ancestral character state reconstruction, and likelihood-based methods of diversification rate estimation. Phylogenies and dating analyses were reconstructed with molecular data from seven genes (mitochondrial and nuclear) for 117 species (plus 12 outgroups). Robust and well-resolved phylogenies indicate a late Oligocene origin of Australasian Hydroporini. Biogeographic analyses suggest an origin in the East Coast region of Australia, and a dynamic biogeographic scenario implying dispersal events. The group successfully colonized the tropical coastal regions carved by a rampant desertification, and also colonized groundwater ecosystems in Central Australia. Diversification rate analyses suggest that the ongoing aridification of Australia initiated in the Miocene contributed to a major wave of extinctions since the late Pliocene probably attributable to an increasing aridity, range contractions and seasonally disruptions resulting from Quaternary climatic changes. When comparing subterranean and epigean genera, our results show that contrasting mechanisms drove their diversification and therefore current diversity pattern. The Australasian Hydroporini radiation reflects a combination of processes that promoted both diversification

Links between CO2, glaciation and water flow: reconciling the Cenozoic history of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ladant, J.B.; Donnadieu, Y.; Dumas, C.

2014-01-01

The timing of the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is a crucial event of the Cenozoic because of its cooling and isolating effect over Antarctica. It is intimately related to the glaciations occurring throughout the Cenozoic from the Eocene - Oligocene (EO) transition (∼ 34 Ma) to the middle Miocene glaciations (∼ 13.9 Ma). However, the exact timing of the onset remains debated, with evidence for a late Eocene setup contradicting other data pointing to an occurrence closer to the Oligocene - Miocene (OM) boundary. In this study, we show the potential impact of the Antarctic ice sheet on the initiation of a strong proto- ACC at the EO boundary. Our results reveal that the regional cooling effect of the ice sheet increases sea ice formation, which disrupts the meridional density gradient in the Southern Ocean and leads to the onset of a circumpolar current and its progressive strengthening. We also suggest that subsequent variations in atmospheric CO 2 , ice sheet volumes and tectonic reorganizations may have affected the ACC intensity after the Eocene - Oligocene transition. This allows us to build a hypothesis for the Cenozoic evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that may provide an explanation for the second initiation of the ACC at the Oligocene - Miocene boundary while reconciling evidence supporting both early Oligocene and early Miocene onset of the ACC. (authors)

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

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Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Cenozoic deformation from the Yakutat-North American collision to the eastern margin of the Northern Canadian Cordillera

Science.gov (United States)

Enkelmann, E.

2017-12-01

The western margin of the Northern Cordillera of North America is dominated by transform motion of the Yakutat microplate along the Fairweather fault system. In southeast Alaska the transform boundary changes to convergence and the oblique collision of the buoyant Yakutat microplate formed the St. Elias Mountains. One of the outstanding questions in understanding the St. Elias orogeny is how stress from the plate boundary has been transferred inboard and distributed strain in the North American plate. The timing, amount, and spatial pattern of deformation and rock exhumation have been studied using multiple thermochronology methods. Together the data reveal that Late Cenozoic deformation inboard of the Fairweather Fault and the colliding Yakutat plate corner at the St. Elias syntaxis was spatially very limited, resulting in rock exhumation within a cooling associated with Cordilleran deformation, and Paleocene-Eocene cooling due to spreading-ridge subduction. In contrast, the region west of the St. Elias syntaxis is dominated by convergence, which resulted in significant Cenozoic deformation in southeastern and southern Alaska. In the St. Elias orogen itself, most of the Late Cenozoic deformation and exhumation occurs within the Yakutat microplate and its Cenozoic sedimentary cover that composes the fold-thrust belt. The efficient interaction between tectonic uplift and glacial erosion resulted in rapid exhumation (>1 km/Myr) and extreme rates (4 km/Myr) that are localized at the syntaxis region and have shifted southward over the past 10 Myr. Far-field deformation reaches more than 500 km to the northwest of the convergent margin and caused mountain building in south-central Alaska. Deformation to the northeast is unclear. New thermochronology data from the eastern margin of the Northern Canadian Cordillera (Northwest Territory) reveal exhumation during the Oligocene to early Miocene. At this time, transform motion was already dominating the plate margin in the

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change - A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, Silvio; Kemfert, Claudia; Hoeppe, Peter

2009-01-01

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950-2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950-2005 as a whole. In the period 1971-2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.

Cenozoic Tectonic Characteristics in the Adare Basin, West Ross Sea: Evidence From Seismic Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Gao, J.; Ding, W.

2017-12-01

Based on the geophysical data obtained from the Adare Basin and its adjacent areas, West Ross Sea, the authors employed the frequency wave-number filtering technique to recover the newly processed dataset with high signal noise ratio and complete seismic event which highly contributes to reveal more detailed deep-seated geological structures than previously thought. The structural features and magmatism of the study area in Cenozoic were classified and analyzed. Combined with glaciation, the associated sedimentary facies were summarized systematically. The authors' analysis revealed that, at 16 Ma, under the influence of the thermal effect caused by residual magmatism and asymmetric spreading of Adare Basin in the initial period, surrounding areas of two flanks of the Adare trough were characterized by uplift folds and tilted uplift zone, respectively. The small-scale uplift fold zone was characterized by nearly upright faults and folds and was located in the southern part of the eastern flank, whereas the tilted uplift zone dominated in the corresponding district of western flank that reached the continental margin. By utilizing the contact relationship between igneous rocks and surrounding rocks, igneous rocks can be divided into two periods: early-stage and late Cenozoic igneous rocks. The early-stage rocks are generally located dispersedly in the tilted uplift zone and the age is poorly known. It is suggested that they were related to the residual magmatism. On the other hand, the spatial distribution of Late Cenozoic igneous rocks, formed not earlier 5.5 Ma, was extensive and scattered, almost covering the whole study area, which indicates that they might be unrelated to the rifting in space and time, instead they were affected by decompression melting of the mantle because of the large-scale deglaciation since Pliocene.

[Evolution of maize climate productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiu Fen; Zhao, Hui Ying; Zhu, Hai Xia; Wang, Ping; Wang, Qiu Jing; Wang, Ming; Li, Yu Guang

2016-08-01

Under the background of climate change, revealing the change trend and spatial diffe-rence of maize climate productivity in-depth and understanding the regularity of maize climatic resources utilization can provide scientific basis for the macro-decision of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the 1981-2014 meteorological data of 72 weather stations and the corresponding maize yield data in Heilongjiang Province, by the methods of step by step revisal, spatial interpolation and linear trend analysis, this paper studied the photosynthetic productivity (PP), light-temperature productivity (LTP), and climatic productivity (CP) of spring maize, and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics, main influencing factors and light energy utilization efficiency, and evaluated the maize climate productivities under different climate scenarios in the future. The results showed that during the study period, the mean PP, LTP and CP in Heilongjiang Province were 26558, 19953, 18742 kg·hm -2 , respectively. Maize PP, LTP and CP were high in plains and low in mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. PP, LTP and CP presented significantly increasing trends, and the increase rates were 378, 723 and 560 kg·hm -2 ·(10 a) -1 , respectively. The increase of radiation and temperature had positive effect on maize production in Heilongjiang Province. The potential productivity of maize presented significant response to climate change. The decrease of solar radiation led to the decline of PP in western Songnen Plain, but the increased temperature compensated the negative effect of solar radiation, so the downward trend of LTP was slowed. The response to climate warming was particularly evident in North and East, and LTP was significantly increased, which was sensitive to the change of precipitation in southwest of Songnen Plain and part of Sanjiang Plain. The average ratio of maize actual yield to its climate productivity was only 24

Climate-influenced ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa seed masting trends in western Montana, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher R. Keyes

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: The aim of this study was to analyze 10-year records of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa seed production, in order to confirm synchronic seed production and to evaluate cyclical masting trends, masting depletion effect, and climate-masting relationships. Area of study: The study area was located in a P. ponderosa stand in the northern Rocky Mountains (western Montana, USA. Material and methods: The study was conducted in one stand that had been subjected to a silvicultural study of uneven-aged management techniques that was carried out in 1984, and which resulted in three separate units consisting of one control, one cut/no-burn treatment, and one cut/burn treatment. Seeds were collected during the 10 years following treatment in 15 traps systematically deployed within each of the stand’s three units. The total numbers of seeds collected in each unit were plotted over time to analyze crop synchrony, with Spearman rank correlation coefficient used to test for masting cycles and crop depletion after a mast year. Meteorological records over the period 1983-1994 were related to the occurrence of a mast event (defined as crops exceeding 50,000 viable seeds/ha. Main results: The seed production pattern was non-cyclical, synchronous, and independent of silvicultural treatment history. A mast-depletion effect was evident but was not statistically significant. Mast events seem to be promoted by the occurrence of optimum mean temperatures at the beginning of spring during both the first (11 °C and second (9 °C years of cone maturation. The probability of a mast year was also affected by summer temperature (number of late frost days; negative effect and precipitation amount (positive effect. All these factors would seemingly explain the observed synchronous pattern in cone production. Research highlights: The non-cyclical trend of ponderosa pine seed mast years is influenced by specific climate determinants. Fluctuations in mean early

Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

2016-04-01

Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

Stratigraphy of the late Cenozoic sediments beneath the 216-A Crib Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fecht, K.R.; Last, G.V.; Marratt, M.C.

1979-02-01

The stratigraphy of the late Cenozoic sediments beneath the 216-A Crib Facilities is presented as lithofacies cross sections and is based on textural variations of the sedimentary sequence lying above the basalt bedrock. The primary source of data in this study is geologic information obtained from well drilling operations and geophysical logging. Stratigraphic interpretations are based primarily on textural analysis and visual examination of sediment samples and supplemented by drillers logs and geophysical logs

Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Friedl, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada’s boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada’s boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada’s boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones.

Precipitation and Evaporation Trends in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, R. W.

2009-05-01

Texas is a large land area with at least three different climate types. As such it is expected that the results of climate change will not be homogenous. This paper presents results of a study of long trends in Texas precipitation and evaporation using data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Texas Water Development Board. It shows that the long term trends of these variables is not homogenous and exhibits great variability in both spatial extent and magnitude. This variability must be considered in planning for future water supply or other mitigation projects.

Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tianyi; Yang, Xiaoguang; Wang, Hesong; Li, Yong; Ye, Qing

2014-04-01

Climatic or technological ceilings could cause yield stagnation. Thus, identifying the principal reasons for yield stagnation within the context of the local climate and socio-economic conditions are essential for informing regional agricultural policies. In this study, we identified the climatic and technological ceilings for seven rice-production regions in China based on yield gaps and on a yield trend pattern analysis for the period 1980-2010. The results indicate that 54.9% of the counties sampled experienced yield stagnation since the 1980. The potential yield ceilings in northern and eastern China decreased to a greater extent than in other regions due to the accompanying climate effects of increases in temperature and decreases in radiation. This may be associated with yield stagnation and halt occurring in approximately 49.8-57.0% of the sampled counties in these areas. South-western China exhibited a promising scope for yield improvement, showing the greatest yield gap (30.6%), whereas the yields were stagnant in 58.4% of the sampled counties. This finding suggests that efforts to overcome the technological ceiling must be given priority so that the available exploitable yield gap can be achieved. North-eastern China, however, represents a noteworthy exception. In the north-central area of this region, climate change has increased the yield potential ceiling, and this increase has been accompanied by the most rapid increase in actual yield: 1.02 ton ha(-1) per decade. Therefore, north-eastern China shows a great potential for rice production, which is favoured by the current climate conditions and available technology level. Additional environmentally friendly economic incentives might be considered in this region. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trend of surface solar radiation over Asia simulated by aerosol transport-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Takemura, T.; Ohmura, A.

2009-12-01

Long-term records of surface radiation measurements indicate a decrease in the solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s (“global dimming”), then its recovery afterward (“global brightening”) at many locations all over the globe [Wild, 2009]. On the other hand, the global brightening is delayed over the Asian region [Ohmura, 2009]. It is suggested that these trends of the global dimming and brightening are strongly related with a change in aerosol loading in the atmosphere which affect the climate change through the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects. In this study, causes of the trend of the surface solar radiation over Asia during last several decades are analyzed with an aerosol transport-climate model, SPRINTARS. SPRINTARS is coupled with MIROC which is a general circulation model (GCM) developed by Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) [Takemura et al., 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009]. The horizontal and vertical resolutions are T106 (approximately 1.1° by 1.1°) and 56 layers, respectively. SPRINTARS includes the transport, radiation, cloud, and precipitation processes of all main tropospheric aerosols (black and organic carbons, sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt). The model treats not only the aerosol mass mixing ratios but also the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as prognostic variables, and the nucleation processes of cloud droplets and ice crystals depend on the number concentrations of each aerosol species. Changes in the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations affect the cloud radiation and precipitation processes in the model. Historical emissions, that is consumption of fossil fuel and biofuel, biomass burning, aircraft emissions, and volcanic eruptions are prescribed from database provided by the Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (AeroCom) and the latest IPCC inventories

Water vapour trends at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, L.; Mattar, C.; Da-Silva, L.; Abarca, R.

2009-01-01

In this paper water vapour trends were analyzed at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003. It was carried out using in situ values retrieved by 15 radiosonde stations and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis data (NNR). NNR and radiosonde water vapour data were linked to Koeppen-Geiger climatic zones to calculate anomalies, trends, and the non-parametric statistical significance for each mandatory level. A methodology used to process radiosonde data is shown. Water vapour trends in tropical climates presented positive decadal trends. This is statistically significant for the first mandatory levels retrieved by radiosonde. The highest values are presented in average with NNR; the decadal magnitude for climate Af being 0.15 g kg -1 for 1000 and 925 h Pa, and for climate As 0.27 g kg -1 for 925 and 850 h Pa. For non-tropical climates the magnitude trends of specific humidity are affected by the spatial resolution of NNR, which is seen when comparing the results received by the radiosondes. Finally, this paper shows the initial results of water vapour content trends in the last three decades over South America. Strong climatic events and synoptic oscillations were not commented upon.

Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Cahynová, Monika; Huth, Radan

2016-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

Cenozoic alkaline volcanic rocks with carbonatite affinity in the Bohemian Massif: Their sources and magma generation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ulrych, Jaromír; Štěpánková-Svobodová, Jana

2014-01-01

Roč. 46, 1/2 (2014), s. 45-58 ISSN 0369-2086 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA300130902 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : alkaline volcanic rocks * melilitic rocks * carbonatites * magma generation * metasomatism * Cenozoic * Bohemian Massif Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Mast, M. Alisa; Ingersoll, George P.

2011-01-01

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

A climate trend analysis of Chad

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies significant decreases in rainfall and increases in air temperature across Chad, especially in the eastern part of the country. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions:* Summer rains have decreased in eastern Chad during the past 20 years. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8 °Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Crop yields are very low and stagnant. * The amount of farmland per person is low, and decliningrapidly.* Population growth combined with stagnating yieldscould lead to a 30 percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.* In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, indicating some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood.

Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

2013-01-01

In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

Cenozoic lithospheric deformation in Northeast Asia and the rapidly-aging Pacific Plate

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ting; Moresi, Louis; Zhao, Dapeng; Sandiford, Dan; Whittaker, Joanne

2018-06-01

Northeast Asia underwent widespread rifting and magmatic events during the Cenozoic. The geodynamic origins of these tectonic events are often linked to Pacific plate subduction beneath Northeast Asia. However, the Japan Sea did not open until the late Oligocene, tens of millions of years after Pacific Plate subduction initiation in the Paleocene. Moreover, it is still not clear why the Baikal Rift Zone extension rate increased significantly after the late Miocene, while the Japan Sea opening ceased at the same time. Geodynamic models suggest these enigmatic events are related to the rapidly-aging Pacific Plate at the trench after Izanagi-Pacific spreading ridge subduction. Subduction of the young Pacific Plate delayed the Japan Sea opening during the Eocene while advection of the old Pacific Plate towards the trench increases seafloor age rapidly, allowing the Japan Sea to open after the early Miocene. The Japan Sea opening promotes fast trench retreat and slab stagnation, with subduction-induced wedge zone convection gradually increasing its extent during this process. The active rifting center associated with wedge zone convection upwelling also shifts inland-ward during slab stagnation, preventing further Japan Sea spreading while promoting the Baikal Rift Zone extension. Our geodynamic model provides a good explanation for the temporal-spatial patterns of the Cenozoic tectonic and magmatic events in Northeast Asia.

Recent climate trends and multisecular climate variability: temperature and precipitation during the cold season (October-March) in the Ebro Basin (NE of Spain) betrween 1500 and 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Saz-Sanchez, M.-A.; Cuadrat-Prats, J.-M.

2009-09-01

One of the goals of Paleoclimatology is to assess the importance and the exceptional nature of recent climate trends related to the anthropogenic climate change. Instrumental data enable the analysis of last century's climate, but do not give any information on previous periods' precipitation and temperature, during which there was no anthropic intervention on the climate system. Dendroclimatology is one of the paleoclimatic reconstruction sources giving best results when it comes to reconstructing the climate of the time before instruments could be used. This work presents the reconstructed series of precipitation and temperature of the cold season (October-March) In the central sector of the Ebro Valley (NE of Spain). The chronologies used for the reconstruction come on the one hand from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and on the other hand from the dendrochronological information bank created in the northern half of the Iberian Peninsula within the framework of the Spanish Interministerial Commission for Science and Technology (CICYT) CLI96-1862 project. The climate data used for chronology calibration and the reconstruction of the temperature and precipitation values are those of the instrumental observatory number 9910 (Pallaruelo) belonging to the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología or AEMET), located in the central sector of the Ebro Valley. The reconstruction obtained covers the 1500-1990 period. In order to extend the series up to 2008, instrumental information has been used. Thanks to data from a set of AEMET instrumental observatories close to the one used for chronology calibration, a regional series of temperatures as well as a precipitation one were generated. The series reconstructed through dendroclimatic methods and the regional series do not show statistically significant differences in their mean and variance values. R values between both series exceed 0.85. Taking these statistical characteristics

Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

Science.gov (United States)

Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

Genesis of Cenozoic intraplate high Mg# andesites in Northeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J. Q.; Chen, L. H.; Zhong, Y.; Wang, X. J.

2017-12-01

High-Mg# andesites (HMAs) are usually generated in the converged plate boundary and have genetic relationships with slab subduction. However, it still remained controversial about the origin of those HMAs erupted in the intra-plate setting. Here we present major, trace element, and Sr-Nd-Pb-Hf isotopic compositions for the Cenozoic intra-plate HMAs from Northeast China to constrain their origin and formation process. Cenozoic Xunke volcanic rocks are located in the northern Lesser Khingan Range, covering an area of about 3, 000 km2. These volcanic rocks are mainly basaltic andesite and basaltic trachyandesite, with only several classified as trachyandesite and andesites. They have high SiO2 contents (54.3-57.4 wt%) and Mg# (49.6-57.8), falling into the scope of high Mg# andesites. The Xunke HMAs are enriched in large ion lithophile elements but depleted in high field strength elements, with positive Ba, K, Sr and negative Zr-Hf, and Ti anomalies. Their trace element absolute concentrations are between those of potassic basalts and Wuchagou HMAs. The Xunke HMAs have relatively enriched Sr-Nd-Hf isotopes (87Sr/86Sr = 0.705398-0.705764, ɛNd=-8.8-3.8, ɛHf=0.5-11.7), and low radiogenic Pb isotopes (206Pb/204Pb = 16.701-17.198), towards to the EM1 end-member, which indicates that they are ultimately derived from ancient, recycled crustal components. Primitive silica-rich melts were generated from higher degrees of partial melting of recycled crustal materials (relative to potassic basalts) and then interacted with the peridotite to produce the Xunke HMAs.

Fires in the Cenozoic: a late flowering of flammable ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William John Bond

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Modern flammable ecosystems include tropical and subtropical savannas, steppe grasslands, boreal forests and temperate sclerophyll shrublands. Despite the apparent fiery nature of much contemporary vegetation, terrestrial fossil evidence would suggest we live in a time of low fire activity relative to the deep past. The inertinite content of coal, fossil charcoal, is strikingly low from the Eocene to the Pleistocene and no charcoalified mesofossils have been reported for the Cenozoic. Marine cores have been analysed for charcoal in the North Pacific, the north and south Atlantic off Africa, and the south China sea. These tell a different story with the oldest records indicating low levels of fire activity from the Eocene but a surge of fire from the late Miocene (~7 Ma. Phylogenetic studies of woody plants adapted to frequent savanna fires show them beginning to appear from the Late Miocene with peak origins in the late Pliocene in both South American and African lineages. Phylogenetic studies indicate ancient origins (60 Ma+ for clades characteristic of flammable sclerophyll vegetation from Australia and the Cape region of South Africa. However, as for savannas, there was a surge of speciation from the Late Miocene associated with the retreat of closed fire-intolerant forests. The wide geographic spread of increased fire activity in the last few million years suggests a global cause. However none of the potential global factors (oxygen, rainfall seasonality, CO2 , novel flammable growth forms provides an adequate explanation as yet. The global patterns and processes of fire and flammable vegetation in the Cenozoic, especially since the Late Miocene, deserve much more attention to better understand fire in the earth system.

Fires in the Cenozoic: a late flowering of flammable ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, William J

2014-01-01

Modern flammable ecosystems include tropical and subtropical savannas, steppe grasslands, boreal forests, and temperate sclerophyll shrublands. Despite the apparent fiery nature of much contemporary vegetation, terrestrial fossil evidence would suggest we live in a time of low fire activity relative to the deep past. The inertinite content of coal, fossil charcoal, is strikingly low from the Eocene to the Pleistocene and no charcoalified mesofossils have been reported for the Cenozoic. Marine cores have been analyzed for charcoal in the North Pacific, the north and south Atlantic off Africa, and the south China sea. These tell a different story with the oldest records indicating low levels of fire activity from the Eocene but a surge of fire from the late Miocene (~7 Ma). Phylogenetic studies of woody plants adapted to frequent savanna fires show them beginning to appear from the Late Miocene with peak origins in the late Pliocene in both South American and African lineages. Phylogenetic studies indicate ancient origins (60 Ma+) for clades characteristic of flammable sclerophyll vegetation from Australia and the Cape region of South Africa. However, as for savannas, there was a surge of speciation from the Late Miocene associated with the retreat of closed fire-intolerant forests. The wide geographic spread of increased fire activity in the last few million years suggests a global cause. However, none of the potential global factors (oxygen, rainfall seasonality, CO2, novel flammable growth forms) provides an adequate explanation as yet. The global patterns and processes of fire and flammable vegetation in the Cenozoic, especially since the Late Miocene, deserve much more attention to better understand fire in the earth system.

Impacts of continental arcs on global carbon cycling and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C. T.; Jiang, H.; Carter, L.; Dasgupta, R.; Cao, W.; Lackey, J. S.; Lenardic, A.; Barnes, J.; McKenzie, R.

2017-12-01

On myr timescales, climatic variability is tied to variations in atmospheric CO2, which in turn is driven by geologic sources of CO2 and modulated by the efficiency of chemical weathering and carbonate precipitation (sinks). Long-term variability in CO2 has largely been attributed to changes in mid-ocean ridge inputs or the efficiency of global weathering. For example, the Cretaceous greenhouse is thought to be related to enhanced oceanic crust production, while the late Cenozoic icehouse is attributed to enhanced chemical weathering associated with the Himalayan orogeny. Here, we show that continental arcs may play a more important role in controlling climate, both in terms of sources and sinks. Continental arcs differ from island arcs and mid-ocean ridges in that the continental plate through which arc magmas pass may contain large amounts of sedimentary carbonate, accumulated over the history of the continent. Interaction of arc magmas with crustal carbonates via assimilation, reaction or heating can significantly add to the mantle-sourced CO2 flux. Detrital zircons and global mapping of basement rocks shows that the length of continental arcs in the Cretaceous was more than twice that in the mid-Cenozoic; maps also show many of these arcs intersected crustal carbonates. The increased length of continental arc magmatism coincided with increased oceanic spreading rates, placing convergent margins into compression, which favors continental arcs. Around 50 Ma, however, nearly all the continental arcs in Eurasia and North America terminated as India collided with Eurasia and the western Pacific rolled back, initiating the Marianas-Tonga-Kermadec intra-oceanic subduction complex and possibly leading to a decrease in global CO2 production. Meanwhile, extinct continental arcs continued to erode, resulting in regionally enhanced chemical weathering unsupported by magmatic fluxes of CO2. Continental arcs, during their magmatic lifetimes, are thus a source of CO2, driving

Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Christopher T.; Bekins, Barbara A.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee K.

2014-01-01

Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agriculture and climate is important for improving water quality. In the midwestern United States, expansion of corn cropping for ethanol production led to increasing N application rates in the 2000s during a period of extreme variability of annual precipitation. To examine the effects of these changes, surface water quality was analyzed in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Several decades of concentration and flow data were analyzed with a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals flow-normalized trends that are independent of year-to-year streamflow variations. Flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N decreased from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to flow-weighted annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low discharge in the 2000s and to the long (e.g., 8 year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of N and depletion of stored N occurs in years with high discharge. Reduced N transport and increased N storage occurs in low-discharge years. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in flow-normalized concentrations, likely because of smaller storage volumes and shorter residence times. Effects of land-use changes on the water quality of major Iowa Rivers may not be noticeable for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central basins where extreme flows strongly affect annual concentration trends.

Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

2006-01-01

Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

The Dependence of Cloud Property Trend Detection on Absolute Calibration Accuracy of Passive Satellite Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Shea, Y.; Wielicki, B. A.; Sun-Mack, S.; Minnis, P.; Zelinka, M. D.

2016-12-01

Detecting trends in climate variables on global, decadal scales requires highly accurate, stable measurements and retrieval algorithms. Trend uncertainty depends on its magnitude, natural variability, and instrument and retrieval algorithm accuracy and stability. We applied a climate accuracy framework to quantify the impact of absolute calibration on cloud property trend uncertainty. The cloud properties studied were cloud fraction, effective temperature, optical thickness, and effective radius retrieved using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Cloud Property Retrieval System, which uses Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements (MODIS). Modeling experiments from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) agree that net cloud feedback is likely positive but disagree regarding its magnitude, mainly due to uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback. With the climate accuracy framework we determined the time to detect trends for instruments with various calibration accuracies. We estimated a relationship between cloud property trend uncertainty, cloud feedback, and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and also between effective radius trend uncertainty and aerosol indirect effect trends. The direct relationship between instrument accuracy requirements and climate model output provides the level of instrument absolute accuracy needed to reduce climate model projection uncertainty. Different cloud types have varied radiative impacts on the climate system depending on several attributes, such as their thermodynamic phase, altitude, and optical thickness. Therefore, we also conducted these studies by cloud types for a clearer understanding of instrument accuracy requirements needed to detect changes in their cloud properties. Combining this information with the radiative impact of different cloud types helps to prioritize among requirements for future satellite sensors and understanding the climate detection

Global Trends in Chlorophyll Concentration Observed with the Satellite Ocean Colour Data Record

Science.gov (United States)

Melin, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Chuprin, A.; Grant, M.; Jackson, T.; Sathyendranath, S.

2016-08-01

To detect climate change signals in the data records derived from remote sensing of ocean colour, combining data from multiple missions is required, which implies that the existence of inter-mission differences be adequately addressed prior to undertaking trend studies. Trend distributions associated with merged products are compared with those obtained from single-mission data sets in order to evaluate their suitability for climate studies. Merged products originally developed for operational applications such as near-real time distribution (GlobColour) do not appear to be proper climate data records, showing large parts of the ocean with trends significantly different from trends obtained with SeaWiFS, MODIS or MERIS. On the other hand, results obtained from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data are encouraging, showing a good consistency with single-mission products.

Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.-J. Wang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the variation and trend of haze pollution in eastern China for winter of 1960–2012 were analyzed. With the overall increasing number of winter haze days in this period, the 5 decades were divided into three sub-periods based on the changes of winter haze days (WHD in central North China (30–40° N and eastern South China (south of 30° N for east of 109° E mainland China. Results show that WHD kept gradually increasing during 1960–1979, remained stable overall during 1980–1999, and increased fast during 2000–2012. The author identified the major climate forcing factors besides total energy consumption. Among all the possible climate factors, variability of the autumn Arctic sea ice extent, local precipitation and surface wind during winter is most influential to the haze pollution change. The joint effect of fast increase of total energy consumption, rapid decline of Arctic sea ice extent and reduced precipitation and surface winds intensified the haze pollution in central North China after 2000. There is a similar conclusion for haze pollution in eastern South China after 2000, with the precipitation effect being smaller and spatially inconsistent.

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

The role of Mesozoic sedimentary basin tapers on the formation of Cenozoic crustal shortening structures and foredeep in the western Sichuan Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, M.

2017-12-01

The foreland basin records important clues of tectonic and sedimentary process of mountain-building, thus to explore its dynamic mechanism on the formation is an important issue of the mountain-basin interaction. The Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt and its adjacent Sichuan basin located in the eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau, are one of the most-concerned regions of studying modern mountain-building and seismic process, and are also a natural laboratory of studying the dynamics of the formation and development of foreland basin. However, it still need further explore on the mechanics of the development of the Cenozoic foreland basin and thrust-belts in the western Sichuan Basin. The Longmen Shan thrust belt has experienced multi-stages of tectonics evolution, foreland basin formation and topography growth since Late Triassic, and whether the early formed basin architecture and large Mesozoic sedimentary basin taper can influence the formation and development of the Cenozoic foreland basin and thrust belts? To solve these issues, this project aim to focus on the Cenozoic foreland basin and internal crustal shortening structures in the western Sichuan basin, on the basis of growth critical wedge taper theory. We will reconstruct the shape of multi-phases of sedimentary basin tapers, the temporal-spatial distribution of crustal shortening and thrusting sequences, and analyze the control mechanism of Mesozoic sedimentary basin taper on the formation of Cenozoic foreland basins, and final explore the interaction between the tectonics geomorphology, stress field and dynamic propagation of foreland basin.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

Herbarium specimens reveal the footprint of climate change on flowering trends across north-central North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Calinger, Kellen M; Queenborough, Simon; Curtis, Peter S

2013-08-01

Shifting flowering phenology with rising temperatures is occurring worldwide, but the rarity of co-occurring long-term observational and temperature records has hindered the evaluation of phenological responsiveness in many species and across large spatial scales. We used herbarium specimens combined with historic temperature data to examine the impact of climate change on flowering trends in 141 species collected across 116,000 km(2) in north-central North America. On average, date of maximum flowering advanced 2.4 days °C(-1), although species-specific responses varied from - 13.5 to + 7.3 days °C(-1). Plant functional types exhibited distinct patterns of phenological responsiveness with significant differences between native and introduced species, among flowering seasons, and between wind- and biotically pollinated species. This study is the first to assess large-scale patterns of phenological responsiveness with broad species representation and is an important step towards understanding current and future impacts of climate change on species performance and biodiversity. © 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

Science.gov (United States)

Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

2016-08-01

This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

3-D thermal effect of late Cenozoic erosion and deposition within the Lofoten-Vesterålen segment of the Mid-Norwegian continental margin

Science.gov (United States)

Maystrenko, Yuriy Petrovich; Gernigon, Laurent; Olesen, Odleiv; Ottesen, Dag; Rise, Leif

2018-05-01

A 3-D subsurface temperature distribution within the Lofoten-Vesterålen segment of the Mid-Norwegian continental margin and adjacent areas has been studied to understand the thermal effect of late Cenozoic erosion of old sedimentary and crystalline rocks and subsequent deposition of glacial sediments during the Pleistocene. A lithosphere-scale 3-D structural model of the Lofoten-Vesterålen area has been used as a realistic approximation of the geometries of the sedimentary infill, underlying crystalline crust and lithospheric mantle during the 3-D thermal modelling. The influence of late Cenozoic erosion and sedimentation has been included during the 3-D thermal calculations. In addition, the 3-D thermal modelling has been carried out by taking also into account the influence of early Cenozoic continental breakup. The results of the 3-D thermal modelling demonstrate that the mainland is generally colder than the basin areas within the upper part of the 3-D model. The thermal influence of the early Cenozoic breakup is still clearly recognizable within the western and deep parts of the Lofoten-Vesterålen margin segment in terms of the increased temperatures. The thermal effects of the erosion and deposition within the study area also indicate that a positive thermal anomaly exists within the specific subareas where sedimentary and crystalline rocks were eroded. A negative thermal effect occurs in the subareas affected by subsidence and sedimentation. The erosion-related positive thermal anomaly reaches its maximum of more than +27 °C at depths of 17-22 km beneath the eastern part of the Vestfjorden Basin. The most pronounced deposition-related negative anomaly shows a minimum of around -70 °C at 17-20 km depth beneath the Lofoten Basin. The second negative anomaly is located within the northeastern part of the Vøring Basin and has minimal values of around -48 °C at 12-14 km depth. These prominent thermal anomalies are associated with the subareas where

Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhov, I. I.

2018-04-01

The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, Southern Peruvian Andes

OpenAIRE

N. Salzmann; C. Huggel; M. Rohrer; W. Silverio; B. G. Mark; P. Burns; C. Portocarrero

2012-01-01

The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer) tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temp...

World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

2016-01-01

Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

Science.gov (United States)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

KAUST Repository

Mahajan, Salil

2011-05-11

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luo Y.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Louchart, Antoine

2008-12-01

During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.

Cenozoic deposits exposed along Rio de la Plata coast in the Canelones Department (Uruguay)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goso Aguilar, C.; Spoturno, J.

2004-01-01

This paper allows to know some sedimentological and stratigraphical features of the Cenozoic deposits exposed along Rio de la Plata coast in the Canelones department, Uruguay. The results, mainly collected from metric thickness of local stratigraphical sections and coastal outcrops of that region are presented. Both Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are present, however transitional Pleistocenic deposits of Chuy Formation and continental sediments of Libertad Formation are more dominant [es

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering

Science.gov (United States)

Donn, W. L.; Shaw, D. M.

1977-01-01

The thermodynamic meteorologic model of Adem is used to trace the evolution of climate from Triassic to present time by applying it to changing geography as described by continental drift and polar wandering. Results show that the gross changes of climate in the Northern Hemisphere can be fully explained by the strong cooling in high latitudes as continents moved poleward. High-latitude mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere dropped below the freezing point 10 to 15 m.y. ago, thereby accounting for the late Cenozoic glacial age. Computed meridional temperature gradients for the Northern Hemisphere steepened from 20 to 40 C over the 200-m.y. period, an effect caused primarily by the high-latitude temperature decrease. The primary result of the work is that the cooling that has occurred since the warm Mesozoic period and has culminated in glaciation is explainable wholly by terrestrial processes.

IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

Climatic variations, trends and drought frequency in Dejen District ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... and expected to increase in the future. This implies that the country specifically the study area whose mainstay depends on agriculture must cope with further warming, low, and erratic rainfall, and frequent climatic extremes. Keywords: Climate change, drought frequency, standardized precipitation index, rainfall variations ...

The ANDRILL programme: a new multinational initiative to investigate Antarctica's climatic and tectonic history from stratigraphic drilling

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, T.; Andrill Steering Committee

2003-04-01

ANDRILL is a multinational initiative to investigate Antarctica’s role in Cenozoic-Recent (65 million years ago to the present) climatic, glacial and tectonic change through the recovery of stratigraphic records from and around the Antarctic margin. The ANDRILL programme was initially conceived and promoted by scientists who led the successful Cape Roberts Project (CRP) and other interested parties. A key motivation of ANDRILL is that the role of the Antarctic cryosphere (ice sheets, ice shelves and sea ice) in the climate system is complex and very poorly understood. While, high-quality sedimentary archives of past ice sheet behaviour have recently be-come available from projects such as the Cape Roberts Project and the Ocean Drilling Program (Leg 188, Prydz Bay), unfortunately they are too few in number to allow a comprehensive understanding of the continents influence on global climate. ANDRILL will address this issue through drilling a targeted portfolio of sites initially in the McMurdo Sound region. Here the dynamic behaviour of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, and the Ross Ice Shelf have left their signature in the thick Cenozoic sedimentary fills of the West Antarctic Rift system and flexural moat basins. The ANDRILL McMurdo Sound Portfolio, is an 8 to 9 year programme spanning from 2001 to 2010 of which geophysical and site survey scientific investigations are nearing completion and the drilling phase will soon begin. An ANDRILL consortium has been established comprising five countries : USA, Italy, Germany, UK and NZ. This paper will present the scientific objectives of the programme, discuss the current status and future plans.

Role of modern climate and hydrology in world oil preservation

Science.gov (United States)

Szatmari, Peter

1992-12-01

The accumulation of oil requires a favorable source, a reservoir, good seal-rock quality, and suitably timed thermal history and structuring. The accumulated oil, especially its light fractions, may be subsequently removed by hydrologically controlled processes such as water washing, biodegradation, and tilting of the oil-water contact. These processes are dependent on the climate. In regions that have become increasingly cold or dry during late Cenozoic time, low rainfall, low ground-water flow rates, and low input of nutrients and microorganisms have protected the oil; in warm or temperate rainy climates, high flow rates and high input of nutrients and microorganisms have led to partial or total removal of oil. Thus, most of the rich (>500 000 barrels/day) oil provinces on land are in cold or dry regions, where water is recharged in highlands that receive little rain (sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, India, and most of China, rich oil provinces on land (outside young deltas) are rare, and biodegradation is widespread.

Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lu; Huang, Jie; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing

2018-06-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.

Climate finance, climate investors and assets for low emission development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Collins C Ngwakwe

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between climate finance, growth in climate investors and growth in climate assets for low emission development. It also evaluates the effect of climate policy evolution on the growth of climate investors and climate assets. Adopting a positivist paradigm, the paper makes use of a quantitative research approach and applies the causal and correlational research design. The paper made use of secondary data from the World Bank Carbon Finance Unit and from the Carbon Disclosure Project (ADP. The major objective was to examine the combined effect of climate finance and climate policy on the growth of carbon investors and carbon assets for the companies in the Carbon Disclosure Project which includes the 100 JSE companies. Findings from the test reveal that the combined effect of growth in climate finance and climate policy evolution has a significant relationship with growth in climate investors and climate assets. Given this result the paper proceeded to examine if the growth in climate finance has any correlation with South Africa’s emission reduction trend. Results however indicate that South Africa’s GHG emission trend does not correlate with climate finance availability; GHG emissions in South Africa have continued to soar despite a seeming growth in climate finance. The paper reasoned that the global climate finance might not be effectively available to corporates in South Africa at the expected level of financing to initiate the expected level of climate investment to effect a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This confirms literature assertions that global climate finance might not easily be accessible, at least to entities in developing countries. In conclusion, the paper suggests the establishment of a Southern African Climate Finance pool where the public and private sector can contribute and that such pool should be made easily available to carbon investors at a cheap rate with

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Decadal stream water quality trends under varying climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in, Iowa, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Christopher; Bekins, Barbara; Kalkhoff, Stephen; Hirsch, Robert; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee

2015-04-01

Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agricultural practices and climatic variations is important for improving water quality in agricultural settings. In the central United States, intensification of corn cropping in support of ethanol production led to increases in N application rates in the 2000s during a period including both extreme dry and wet conditions. To examine the effect of these recent changes, a study was conducted on surface water quality in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Long term (~20 to 30 years) water quality and flow data were analyzed with Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS), a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals decadal trends that are independent of random variations of stream flow from seasonal averages. Trends of surface water quality showed constant or decreasing flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low streamflow discharge in the 2000's and to the long (e.g. 8-year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of surface water nitrate and depletion of stored nitrate may occur in years with very high discharge. Limited transport of N to streams and accumulation of stored N may occur in years with very low discharge. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in concentrations, likely because extensive tile-drains limit the effective volumes for storage of N and reduce residence times, and because the glacial sediments in these basins promote denitrification. Changes in nitrogen fluxes resulting from ethanol production and other factors will likely be delayed for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central

Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Silva, C. G.; Rigsby, C. A.; Absy, M. L.; Almeida, R. P.; Caputo, M.; Chiessi, C. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Dick, C. W.; Feakins, S. J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K. H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.; Kern, A. K.; Latrubesse, E. M.; Ledru, M. P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W. E.; Ramos, M. I. F.; Ribas, C. C.; Trnadade, R.; West, A. J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, D. A.

2015-12-01

This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P.A.; Fritz, S.C.; Silva, C.G.; Rigsby, C.A.; Absy, M.L.; Almeida, R.P.; Caputo, Maria C.; Chiessi, C.M.; Cruz, F.W.; Dick, C.W.; Feakins, S.J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K.H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Kern, A.; Latrubesse, E.M.; Ledru, M.P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W.E.; Ramos, M.I.F.; Ribas, C.C.; Trinadade, R.; West, A.J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, Debra A.

2015-01-01

This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. .... Note: The topography is classified by using the SRTM3 digital elevation model (DEM), which ...... trends and flooding risk in the west of Scotland; Nordic.

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-10-01

Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

Science.gov (United States)

Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Borchsenius, Finn; Plum, Christoffer M; Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-03-01

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Stratigraphy of the late Cenozoic sediments beneath the 216-B and C crib facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fecht, K.R.; Last, G.V.; Marratt, M.C.

1979-02-01

The stratigraphy of the late Cenozoic sediments beneath the 216-B and C Crib Facilities is presented as lithofacies cross sections and is based on textural variations of the sedimentary sequence lying above the basalt bedrock. The primary source of data in this study is geologic information obtained from well drilling operations and geophysical logging. Stratigraphic interpretations are based primarily on textural analysis and visual examination of sediment samples and supplemented by drillers logs and geophysical logs

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

2016-04-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Geochemical prerequisites of petroleum-gas formation in the Mesozoic-Cenozoic sedimentary layer of the world's oceans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trotsyuk, V Ya

1979-05-01

A summarization is given of the latest material on the geochemistry of trace organic matter of Mesozoic-Cenozoic deposits of the world's oceans, obtained as a result of deep-sea drilling. Trace organic matter was found to be present in the sedimentary layers of the ocean outskirts in amounts near that found in the continental stratosphere, but that content was five times less in the interior region of the oceans. The trace organic matter of deposits in the marginal region of the oceans was found to have a significant petroleum-gas matrix potential with respect to the level of content and composition characteristics. The distribution of organic carbon was found to be uneven in variously aged horizons of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic. The maximum content of organic carbon was noted in the Neogene-Quaternary and lower Cretaceous deposits. An elevated content of trace organic matter was found to be characteristic of the oceanic stratisphere in lithological mixed sediments: terrigenous-carbonate and terrigenous-silicons was 1.5 times greater than the trace organic matter in clays. Fundamental geochemical propagation laws were formulated, possibly for petroleum-gas-bearing sediment basins under the ocean bottom and beyond the shelf. 18 references, 3 figures.

Climate change issues in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ye Ruqiu (China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China))

China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. 8 refs., 3 tabs.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

2015-01-01

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

Stratigraphy and Folding in the Cenozoic Cover of a Fold-Thrust Belt in the Nallıhan Region (Ankara, Central Turkey)

Science.gov (United States)

Karaaǧaç, Serdal; Koral, Hayrettin

2017-04-01

This study investigates stratigraphy and structural features in the Cenozoic sedimentary sequence of the fold-thrust belt of the Nallıhan-Ankara region, located to the north of the İzmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture Zone. Permian-Triassic age marble intercalated with schist-phyllites, the upper Jurassic-lower Cretaceous age limestone and the upper Cretaceous age sandstone-shale alternation compose the basement in the study area. These rocks are unconformably overlain by the Cenozoic age terrestrial sedimentary and volcanic units. The Cenozoic stratigraphy begins with the Paleocene-Eocene age coal-bearing, at times, volcanic intercalated conglomerate-sandstone-mudstone alternation of alluvial-fluvial origins (Aksaklar Formation) and the tuff intercalated with lacustrine limestone, bituminous limestone (Kabalar Formation). These units are conformably overlain by the Eocene age basalt-andesite and pyroclastic rocks (Meyildere volcanics). The Paleocene-Eocene aged units are unconformably overlain by the conglomerate-sandstone-mudstone-marl of a lower-middle Miocene lacustrine environment (Hançili Formation). The terrestrial conglomerate-sandstone alternation (Örencik Formation) is the youngest unit in the Cenozoic stratigraphy, and is assumed to be of Pliocene age based its stratigraphic position on older units. Field study shows existence of both folds and faults in the sedimentary cover. Stereographic projections of bedding measured in the field shows N25W/45NW and N60W/4SE-oriented fold axes in the Paleocene-Eocene age units. There are also N76W/12SE and N88E/8NE-oriented folds. The difference in fold-axis orientations suggests that some folds may have been rotated in blocks bound by faults during the post-Paleocene/Eocene period. Whereas, the lower-middle Miocene units manifest N88W/13SE-oriented fold axes. It is thus proposed that the observed difference in the azimuth of fold axes represent two different folding phases, one with NE-SW and the other with N

Tectonic, volcanic, and climatic geomorphology study of the Sierras Pampeanas Andes, northwestern Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. L.; Strecker, M. R.; Fielding, E. J.

1984-01-01

A proposed analysis of Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) data extends current research in the Sierras Pampeanas and the Puna of northwestern Argentina to the determination - by the digital analysis of mountain-front sinuousity - of the relative age and amount of fault movement along mountain fronts of the late-Cenozoic Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks; the determination of the age and history of the boundary across the Andes at about 27 S latitude between continuing volcanism to the north and inactive volcanism to the south; and the determination of the age and extent of Pleistocene glaciation in the High Sierras, as well as the comparative importance of climatic change and tectonic movements in shaping the landscape. The integration of these studies into other ongoing geology projects contributes to the understanding of landform development in this active tectonic environment and helps distinguish between climatic and tectonic effects on landforms.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Science.gov (United States)

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-05-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

A climate signal in exhumation patterns revealed by porphyry copper deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Yanites, Brian J.; Kesler, Stephen E.

2015-06-01

The processes that build and shape mountain landscapes expose important mineral resources. Mountain landscapes are widely thought to result from the interaction between tectonic uplift and exhumation by erosion. Both climate and tectonics affect rates of exhumation, but estimates of their relative importance vary. Porphyry copper deposits are emplaced at a depth of about 2 km in convergent tectonic settings; their exposure at the surface therefore can be used to track landscape exhumation. Here we analyse the distribution, ages and spatial density of exposed Cenozoic porphyry copper deposits using a global data set to quantify exhumation. We find that the deposits exhibit young ages and are sparsely distributed--both consistent with rapid exhumation--in regions with high precipitation, and deposits are older and more abundant in dry regions. This suggests that climate is driving erosion and mineral exposure in deposit-bearing mountain landscapes. Our findings show that the emplacement ages of porphyry copper deposits provide a means to estimate long-term exhumation rates in active orogens, and we conclude that climate-driven exhumation influences the age and abundance of exposed porphyry copper deposits around the world.

Climate Action Tracker Update. Climate Shuffle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoehne, N.; Fekete, H.; Vieweg, M.; Hare, B.; Schaeffer, M.; Rocha, M.; Larkin, J.; Guetschow, J.; Jeffery, L.

2011-11-15

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) compares and assesses national and global action against a range of different climate targets across all relevant time frames, starting with an ongoing analysis of countries' current emission reduction pledges. National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular 'climate shuffle' dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot, or even, in some cases, going backwards. Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place and proposed lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4C by 2100, significantly above the warming that would result from full implementation of the pledges (3.3C). The continuous global fossil-fuel intensive development of the past decade suggests that high warming levels of 4C are more plausible than assuming full implementation of current pledges. Evidence is ever increasing that existing and planned policies are not sufficient for countries to meet these pledges.

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Climate plan 2004; Plan climat 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

The Climate Plan is an action plan drawn up by the French Government to respond to the climate change challenge, first by 2010 (complying with the Kyoto Protocol target), and, secondly, beyond this date. Projections for France show that national emissions could be 10% higher than the Kyoto target in 2010 if no measures are taken. This is particularly due to increasing emissions in the sectors affecting daily life (residential-tertiary sectors, transport, etc.). For this reason, the Climate Plan contains measures affecting all sectors of the economy and the daily life of all French citizens with a view to economizing the equivalent of 54 million tonnes of CO{sub 2} each year by the year 2010, which will help to reverse the trend significantly. Beyond 2010, the Climate Plan sets out a strategy for technological research which will enable France to meet a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions four or fivefold by 2050. (author)

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

Science.gov (United States)

Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

2010-01-01

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Strode

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

Climate change issues in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Ruqiu

1994-01-01

China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. (author). 8 refs, 3 tabs

Climatic indicators over Catalonia during the last century

Science.gov (United States)

Busto, M.; Prohom, M.

2010-09-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia releases a yearly bulletin whose main objective is to try to detect climate trends over Catalonia during the last decades. Climate indicators are obtained from the analysis of historical daily air temperature, sea temperature and rainfall series. Those series have been first completed, analyzed for quality control and homogenized to ensure its final reliability. Regarding homogenization, monthly air temperature series have been tested and corrected according to the methodology proposed by Caussinus and Mestre (2004). For the two longest air temperature series, the calculated correction factors have been transferred to the daily values following Vincent et al. (2002) recommendations, while no significant inhomogeneities have been detected for precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends, for the period 1950-2010, of 17 selected climatic series spread across the territory shows a common temperature increase between +0.19 to +0.24 °C/decade. This warming trend is uniform and no specific sub-regional trends are detected. Furthermore, the seasonal approach reveals that mean maximum temperature increases at a higher rate than mean minimum temperature. The summer temperature rise is the most significant, between +0.32 and +0.44 °C/decade, while autumn is the only season showing no significant positive trend. The summer maximum temperature shows the highest increase, exceeding +0.39 °C/decade in all the 17 series. The climatic extremes analysis of the longest Catalan series (Ebre Observatory in Roquetes, Tarragona, since 1905 and Fabra Observatory in Barcelona since 1913) reveals an increase in the number of summer days, tropical nights, minimum of maximum temperature, warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of frost days, cold nights, cold days and cold spell duration indicator. Concerning precipitation, the only significant trend is the reduction of snow days. These trends were calculated according to

Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Kyuma

Key words: Climate, drylands, livestock, Prosopis juliflora, variability vegetation, trends, mesquite. ... climate change is costly and predictions are that both it and its cost will escalate ... Resilience Alliance, 2010; Tennigkeit and Wilkes, 2008;.

Impact of climate trends on tick-borne pathogen transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agustin eEstrada-Pena

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Recent advances in climate research together with a better understanding of tick-pathogen interactions, the distribution of ticks and the diagnosis of tick-borne pathogens raise questions about the impact of environmental factors on tick abundance and spread and the prevalence and transmission of tick-borne pathogens. While undoubtedly climate plays a role in the changes in distribution and seasonal abundance of ticks, it is always difficult to disentangle factors impacting on the abundance of tick hosts from those exerted by human habits. All together, climate, host abundance and social factors may explain the upsurge of epidemics transmitted by ticks to humans. Herein we focused on tick-borne pathogens that affect humans with pandemic potential. Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. (Lyme disease, Anaplasma phagocytophilum (human granulocytic anaplasmosis and tick-borne encephalitis virus (tick-borne encephalitis are transmitted by Ixodes spp. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever is transmitted by Hyalomma spp. In this review, we discussed how vector tick species occupy the habitat as a function of different climatic factors, and how these factors impact on tick survival and seasonality. How molecular events at the tick-pathogen interface impact on pathogen transmission is also discussed. Results from statistically and biologically derived models are compared to show that while statistical models are able to outline basic information about tick distributions, biologically derived models are necessary to evaluate pathogen transmission rates and understand the effect of climatic variables and host abundance patterns on pathogen transmission. The results of these studies could be used to build early alert systems able to identify the main factors driving the subtle changes in tick distribution and seasonality and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens.

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

OpenAIRE

Luo Y.; Qin D.; Huang J.

2010-01-01

Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warmi...

Cenozoic global sea level, sequences, and the New Jersey transect: Results from coastal plain and continental slope drilling

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, K.G.; Mountain, Gregory S.; Browning, J.V.; Kominz, M.; Sugarman, P.J.; Christie-Blick, N.; Katz, M.E.; Wright, J.D.

1998-01-01

The New Jersey Sea Level Transect was designed to evaluate the relationships among global sea level (eustatic) change, unconformity-bounded sequences, and variations in subsidence, sediment supply, and climate on a passive continental margin. By sampling and dating Cenozoic strata from coastal plain and continental slope locations, we show that sequence boundaries correlate (within ??0.5 myr) regionally (onshore-offshore) and interregionally (New Jersey-Alabama-Bahamas), implicating a global cause. Sequence boundaries correlate with ??18O increases for at least the past 42 myr, consistent with an ice volume (glacioeustatic) control, although a causal relationship is not required because of uncertainties in ages and correlations. Evidence for a causal connection is provided by preliminary Miocene data from slope Site 904 that directly link ??18O increases with sequence boundaries. We conclude that variation in the size of ice sheets has been a primary control on the formation of sequence boundaries since ~42 Ma. We speculate that prior to this, the growth and decay of small ice sheets caused small-amplitude sea level changes (changes on mid-ocean ridges. Although our results are consistent with the general number and timing of Paleocene to middle Miocene sequences published by workers at Exxon Production Research Company, our estimates of sea level amplitudes are substantially lower than theirs. Lithofacies patterns within sequences follow repetitive, predictable patterns: (1) coastal plain sequences consist of basal transgressive sands overlain by regressive highstand silts and quartz sands; and (2) although slope lithofacies variations are subdued, reworked sediments constitute lowstand deposits, causing the strongest, most extensive seismic reflections. Despite a primary eustatic control on sequence boundaries, New Jersey sequences were also influenced by changes in tectonics, sediment supply, and climate. During the early to middle Eocene, low siliciclastic and

Climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1977-02-15

In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

Climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-01-01

In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

Sun, weather, and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

1985-01-01

The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

Gauging the System: Trends in School Climate Measurement and Intervention

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley, Meagan; Katz, Kristin; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Furlong, Michael J.

2011-01-01

Researchers and educators are giving increasing scrutiny to systems-level constructs that contribute to safe, supportive, and effective schools, including school climate. School climate is a multifaceted construct that is commonly conceptualized as school community members' subjective experiences of the structural and contextual elements of a…

An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard D Gregory

Full Text Available Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th and late 21(st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Moses, Oliver; Hambira, Wame L.

2018-06-01

In semi-arid developing countries, most poor people depend on contaminated surface or groundwater resources since they do not have access to safe and centrally supplied water. These water resources are threatened by several factors that include high evapotranspiration rates. In the Okavango Delta region in the north-western Botswana, communities facing insufficient centrally supplied water rely mainly on the surface water resources of the Delta. The Delta loses about 98% of its water through evapotranspiration. However, the 2% remaining water rescues the communities facing insufficient water from the main stream water supply. To understand the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources, this study analysed trends in the main climatic parameters needed as input variables in evapotranspiration models. The Mann Kendall test was used in the analysis. Trend analysis is crucial since it reveals the direction of trends in the climatic parameters, which is helpful in determining the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The main climatic parameters required as input variables in evapotranspiration models that were of interest in this study were wind speeds, solar radiation and relative humidity. Very little research has been conducted on these climatic parameters in the Okavango Delta region. The conducted trend analysis was more on wind speeds, which had relatively longer data records than the other two climatic parameters of interest. Generally, statistically significant increasing trends have been found, which suggests that climate change is likely to further increase evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources.

On the origin of Amazonian landscapes and biodiversity: a synthesis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wesselingh, F.P.; Hoorn, C.; Kroonenberg, S.B.; Antonelli, A.; Lundberg, J.G.; Vonhof, H.B.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Hoorn, M.; Wesselingh, F.P.

2010-01-01

In northern South America the Cenozoic was a period of intense tectonic and climatic interaction that resulted in a dynamic Amazonian landscape dominated by lowlands with local and shield-derived rivers. These drainage systems constantly changed shape and size. During the entire Cenozoic, the

Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maqssood, H.; Ahmed, S.I.

2014-01-01

From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

The Impact of Climate Trends on a Tick Affecting Public Health: A Retrospective Modeling Approach for Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada-Peña, Agustín; de la Fuente, José; Latapia, Tamara; Ortega, Carmelo

2015-01-01

The impact of climate trends during the period 1901-2009 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum in Europe was modeled to assess changes in the physiological processes of this threat to public health. Monthly records of temperature and water vapour at a resolution of 0.5° and equations describing the life cycle processes of the tick were used. The climate in the target region affected the rates of the life cycle processes of H. marginatum: development rates increased, mortality rates in molting stages decreased, and the survival rates of questing ticks decreased in wide territories of the Mediterranean basin. The modeling framework indicated the existence of critical areas in the Balkans, central Europe, and the western coast of France, where the physiological processes of the tick improved to extents that are consistent with the persistence of populations if introduced. A spatially explicit risk assessment was performed to detect candidate areas where active surveys should be performed to monitor changes in tick density or persistence after a hypothetical introduction. We detected areas where the critical abiotic (climate) and biotic (host density) factors overlap, including most of the Iberian peninsula, the Mediterranean coast of France, eastern Turkey, and portions of the western Black Sea region. Wild ungulate densities are unavailable for large regions of the territory, a factor that might affect the outcome of the study. The risk of successfully establishing H. marginatum populations at northern latitudes of its current colonization range seems to be still low, even if the climate has improved the performance of the tick in these areas.

Meso-cenozoic extensional tectonics and uranium metallogenesis in southeast China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yuehui; Chen Zuyi; Cai Yuqi; Fu Jin; Feng Quanhong; Shi Zuhai

1998-12-01

Through a systematic study on Meso-Cenozoic extensional tectonics in Southeast China, the authors point out that there are three major types of extensional tectonics such as taphrogenic thermo-upwelling, and gravitational extensional tectonics. The characteristics of structural forms, combination patterns, movement style and syn-tectonic magmatism of different extensional tectonics are studied. Then according to the known isotope age data of uranium mineralizations in the area, the relations between the process of extensional tectonics and regional uranium metallogenesis, as well as the corresponding relations in space and time between extensional tectonics and uranium deposits of different types are analyzed. In conclusion, the authors suggest that the uranium mineralizations of different types in Southeast China are characterized by an united ore-forming mechanism due to the apparent control of extensional tectonics to the regional uranium metallogenesis

Livelihood trends in Response to Climate Change in Forest Fringe ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

One of the forest fringe communities in Ghana where the rural livelihoods of the people have been compromised due to deforestation and climate change is the Offin basin. The removal of forests impacts on local climate, water availability, and livelihoods due to influence of forests on precipitation and water balance. Fluxes ...

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Henson

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Global Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Sun, Yun-peng

2010-01-01

Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province, the annual and seasonal light, heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25℃/10a , the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The ...

Evolution of basin architecture in an incipient continental rift: the Cenozoic Most Basin, Eger Graben (Central Europe)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Rajchl, M.; Uličný, David; Grygar, R.; Mach, K.

2009-01-01

Roč. 21, č. 3 (2009), s. 269-294 ISSN 0950-091X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012705; GA ČR GA205/01/0629; GA ČR(CZ) GA205/06/1823 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : Cenozoic Most Basin * continental rift * Eger Graben Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.161, year: 2009

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

2008-12-30

Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

2014-01-01

To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

Pacific plate slab pull and intraplate deformation in the early Cenozoic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. P. Butterworth

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Large tectonic plates are known to be susceptible to internal deformation, leading to a~range of phenomena including intraplate volcanism. However, the space and time dependence of intraplate deformation and its relationship with changing plate boundary configurations, subducting slab geometries, and absolute plate motion is poorly understood. We utilise a buoyancy-driven Stokes flow solver, BEM-Earth, to investigate the contribution of subducting slabs through time on Pacific plate motion and plate-scale deformation, and how this is linked to intraplate volcanism. We produce a series of geodynamic models from 62 to 42 Ma in which the plates are driven by the attached subducting slabs and mantle drag/suction forces. We compare our modelled intraplate deformation history with those types of intraplate volcanism that lack a clear age progression. Our models suggest that changes in Cenozoic subduction zone topology caused intraplate deformation to trigger volcanism along several linear seafloor structures, mostly by reactivation of existing seamount chains, but occasionally creating new volcanic chains on crust weakened by fracture zones and extinct ridges. Around 55 Ma, subduction of the Pacific-Izanagi ridge reconfigured the major tectonic forces acting on the plate by replacing ridge push with slab pull along its northwestern perimeter, causing lithospheric extension along pre-existing weaknesses. Large-scale deformation observed in the models coincides with the seamount chains of Hawaii, Louisville, Tokelau and Gilbert during our modelled time period of 62 to 42 Ma. We suggest that extensional stresses between 72 and 52 Ma are the likely cause of large parts of the formation of the Gilbert chain and that localised extension between 62 and 42 Ma could cause late-stage volcanism along the Musicians volcanic ridges. Our models demonstrate that early Cenozoic changes in Pacific plate driving forces only cause relatively minor changes in Pacific

A major reorganization of Asian climate by the early Miocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. T. Guo

2008-08-01

Full Text Available The global climate system experienced a series of drastic changes during the Cenozoic. In Asia, these include the climate transformation from a zonal pattern to a monsoon-dominated pattern, the disappearance of typical subtropical aridity, and the onset of inland deserts. Despite major advances in the last two decades in characterizing and understanding these climate phenomena, disagreements persist relative to the timing, behaviors and underlying causes.

This paper addresses these issues mainly based on two lines of evidence. First, we compiled newly collected data from geological indicators of the Cenozoic environment in China as paleoenvironmental maps of ten intervals. In confirming the earlier observation that a zonal climate pattern was transformed into a monsoonal one, the maps within the Miocene indicate that this change was achieved by the early Miocene, roughly consistent with the onset of loess deposition in China. Although a monsoon-like regime would have existed in the Eocene, it was restricted to tropical-subtropical regions. The latitudinal oscillations of the climate zones during the Paleogene are likely attributable to the imbalance in evolution of polar ice-sheets between the two hemispheres.

Secondly, we examine the relevant depositional and soil forming processes of the Miocene loess-soil sequences to determine the circulation characteristics with emphasis on the early Miocene. Continuous eolian deposition in the middle reaches of the Yellow River since the early Miocene firmly indicates the formation of inland deserts, which have been constantly maintained during the past 22 Ma. Grain-size gradients between loess sections indicate northerly dust-carrying winds from northern sources, a clear indication of an Asian winter monsoon system. Meanwhile, well-developed Luvisols show evidence that moisture from the oceans reached northern China. This evidence shows the coexistence of two kinds of

A climate trend analysis of Mali

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained relatively steady for the past 20 years, but are 12 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * Current population and agricultural trends indicate that increased yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.

CENOZOIC CONTINENTAL RIFTING SYMPOSIUM DEDICATED TO THE MEMORY OF ACADEMICIAN N.A. LOGATCHEV, IRKUTSK, RUSSIA, JUNE 7–11, 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugene V. Sklyarov

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The information on the «Cenozoic Continental Rifting» Symposium dedicated to the memory of Academician N.A. Logachev is presented. It was held on June 7–11, 2010 at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Irkutsk. The scope of conference is presented.

Cropping Systems and Climate Change in Humid Subtropical Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ixchel M. Hernandez-Ochoa

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In the future, climate change will challenge food security by threatening crop production. Humid subtropical regions play an important role in global food security, with crop rotations often including wheat (winter crop and soybean and maize (summer crops. Over the last 30 years, the humid subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere have experienced a stronger warming trend than in the Southern Hemisphere, and the trend is projected to continue throughout the mid- and end of century. Past rainfall trends range, from increases up to 4% per decade in Southeast China to −3% decadal decline in East Australia; a similar trend is projected in the future. Climate change impact studies suggest that by the middle and end of the century, wheat yields may not change, or they will increase up to 17%. Soybean yields will increase between 3% and 41%, while maize yields will increase by 30% or decline by −40%. These wide-ranging climate change impacts are partly due to the region-specific projections, but also due to different global climate models, climate change scenarios, single-model uncertainties, and cropping system assumptions, making it difficult to make conclusions from these impact studies and develop adaptation strategies. Additionally, most of the crop models used in these studies do not include major common stresses in this environment, such as heat, frost, excess water, pests, and diseases. Standard protocols and impact assessments across the humid subtropical regions are needed to understand climate change impacts and prepare for adaptation strategies.

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

Continental deformation accommodated by non-rigid passive bookshelf faulting: An example from the Cenozoic tectonic development of northern Tibet

Science.gov (United States)

Zuza, Andrew V.; Yin, An

2016-05-01

Collision-induced continental deformation commonly involves complex interactions between strike-slip faulting and off-fault deformation, yet this relationship has rarely been quantified. In northern Tibet, Cenozoic deformation is expressed by the development of the > 1000-km-long east-striking left-slip Kunlun, Qinling, and Haiyuan faults. Each have a maximum slip in the central fault segment exceeding 10s to ~ 100 km but a much smaller slip magnitude (~bookshelf-fault model for the Cenozoic tectonic development of northern Tibet. Our model, quantitatively relating discrete left-slip faulting to distributed off-fault deformation during regional clockwise rotation, explains several puzzling features, including the: (1) clockwise rotation of east-striking left-slip faults against the northeast-striking left-slip Altyn Tagh fault along the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, (2) alternating fault-parallel extension and shortening in the off-fault regions, and (3) eastward-tapering map-view geometries of the Qimen Tagh, Qaidam, and Qilian Shan thrust belts that link with the three major left-slip faults in northern Tibet. We refer to this specific non-rigid bookshelf-fault system as a passive bookshelf-fault system because the rotating bookshelf panels are detached from the rigid bounding domains. As a consequence, the wallrock of the strike-slip faults deforms to accommodate both the clockwise rotation of the left-slip faults and off-fault strain that arises at the fault ends. An important implication of our model is that the style and magnitude of Cenozoic deformation in northern Tibet vary considerably in the east-west direction. Thus, any single north-south cross section and its kinematic reconstruction through the region do not properly quantify the complex deformational processes of plateau formation.

Communities under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

2011-01-01

The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

New aero-gravity results from the Arctic: Linking the latest Cretaceous-early Cenozoic plate kinematics of the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Døssing, Arne; Hopper, J.R.; Olesen, Arne Vestergaard

2013-01-01

The tectonic history of the Arctic Ocean remains poorly resolved and highly controversial. Details regarding break up of the Lomonosov Ridge from the Barents-Kara shelf margins and the establishment of seafloor spreading in the Cenozoic Eurasia Basin are unresolved. Significantly, the plate...... tectonic evolution of the Mesozoic Amerasia Basin is essentially unknown. The Arctic Ocean north of Greenland is at a critical juncture that formed at the locus of a Mesozoic three-plate setting between the Lomonosov Ridge, Greenland, and North America. In addition, the area is close to the European plate...... plateau against an important fault zone north of Greenland. Our results provide new constraints for Cretaceous-Cenozoic plate reconstructions of the Arctic. Key Points Presentation of the largest aero-gravity survey acquired over the Arctic Ocean Plate tectonic link between Atlantic and Arctic spreading...

Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1993-01-01

The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

Cenozoic extensional tectonics of the Western Anatolia Extended Terrane, Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cemen, I; Catlos, E J; Gogus, O; Diniz, E; Hancer, M

2008-01-01

The Western Anatolia Extended Terrane in Turkey is located on the eastern side of the Aegean Extended Terrane and contains one of the largest metamorphic core complexes in the world, the Menderes massif. It has experienced a series of continental collisions from the Late Cretaceous to the Eocene during the formation of the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone. Based our field work and monazite ages, we suggest that the north-directed postcollisional Cenozoic extension in the region is the product of three consecutive stages, triggered by three different mechanisms. The first stage was initiated about 30 Ma ago, in the Oligocene by the Orogenic Collapse the thermally weakened continental crust along the north-dipping Southwest Anatolian shear zone. The shear zone was formed as an extensional simple-shear zone with listric geometry at depth and exhibits predominantly normal-slip along its southwestern end. But, it becomes a high-angle oblique-slip shear zone along its northeastern termination. Evidence for the presence of the shear zone includes (1) the dominant top to the north-northeast shear sense indicators throughout the Menderes massif, such as stretching lineations trending N10E to N30E; and (2) a series of Oligocene extensional basins located adjacent to the shear zone that contain only carbonate and ophiolitic rock fragments, but no high grade metamorphic rock fragments. During this stage, erosion and extensional unroofing brought high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Central Menderes massif to the surface by the early Miocene. The second stage of the extension was triggered by subduction roll-back and associated back-arc extension in the early Miocene and produced the north-dipping Alasehir and the south-dipping Bueyuek Menderes detachments of the central Menderes massif and the north-dipping Simav detachment of the northern Menderes massif. The detachments control the Miocene sedimentation in the Alasehir, Bueyuek Menderes, and Simav grabens, containing high

Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bucha, Václav

2002-01-01

Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

Assessment of the Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variations on the Trend of River Flows in Urmia Lake Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashkan Farokhnia

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Trend analysis is one of the appropriate methods to assess the hydro-climatic condition of watersheds, which is commonly used for analysis of change pattern in a single variable over time. However, in real cases, many hydrological variables such as river flow are directly affected by climate and environmental factors, which usually go unnoticed in routine analyzes. The aim of the present research is to investigate the trend of river discharge in 25 hydrometric stations in Lake Urmia river basin with and without consideration of temperature and rainfall variability. Briefly, the results showed that there is a decreasing trend in all stations, which is significant in 9 cases. Also, it has been shown that regarding to trends in precipitation and temperature, the number of stations with significant decreasing trend will reduce to 7, which shows low impact of climate factors on the reduction rate of discharge in these stations. Based on the results, it can be concluded that climate variations have direct effect in inferring significant trends in river flow, so that considering these variables in studying of river discharge can lead to different results in the detection of significant trends.

A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

2012-09-15

A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

2018-03-01

South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

Discussion on geological characteristics and types of uranium deposit of Mesozoic-cenozoic basin in Guangdong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Kesheng; Deng Shihua

1992-01-01

Systematic summary is briefly made of the distribution, classification, formation, regional geological setting, uranium deposit type, ore-controlling geological conditions of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic basin in Guangdong area, and on this basis it is proposed that there exist different ore-controlling conditions in different types of basin and different types of deposit can be formed in them, thus indicating the direction for exploration of the basin type uranium deposit from now on and expanding the prospect of ore-finding in the basins in Guangdong area

New Eocene damselflies and first Cenozoic damsel-dragonfly of the isophlebiopteran lineage (Insecta: Odonata).

Science.gov (United States)

Garrouste, Romain; Nel, André

2015-10-09

The study of a new specimen of Petrolestes hendersoni from the Eocene Green Formation allows a more precise description of the enigmatic damselfly and the diagnosis of the Petrolestini. Petrolestes messelensis sp. nov. is described from the Eocene Messel Formation in Germany, extending the distribution of the Petrolestini to the European Eocene. The new damsel-dragonfly family Pseudostenolestidae is described for the new genus and species Pseudostenolestes bechlyi, from the Eocene Messel Formation. It is the first Cenozoic representative of the Mesozoic clade Isophlebioptera.

Seven Steps in Identifying Local Climate Change Responses for Agriculture in Vietnam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosma, R.H.; Ngo, An T.; Huynh, Chuong V.; Le, Huong T.; Dang, Nhan K.; Van, Tri P.D.; Halsema, van G.E.

2016-01-01

This study presents a seven-step approach to identify and support local climate change (CC) responses in agriculture. The following seven steps comprise this approach: 1. Analyse past trends on the climatic factors and model the future trends. 2. Simulate the possible impacts of CC on the selected

The Impact of Climate Trends on a Tick Affecting Public Health: A Retrospective Modeling Approach for Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agustín Estrada-Peña

Full Text Available The impact of climate trends during the period 1901-2009 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum in Europe was modeled to assess changes in the physiological processes of this threat to public health. Monthly records of temperature and water vapour at a resolution of 0.5° and equations describing the life cycle processes of the tick were used. The climate in the target region affected the rates of the life cycle processes of H. marginatum: development rates increased, mortality rates in molting stages decreased, and the survival rates of questing ticks decreased in wide territories of the Mediterranean basin. The modeling framework indicated the existence of critical areas in the Balkans, central Europe, and the western coast of France, where the physiological processes of the tick improved to extents that are consistent with the persistence of populations if introduced. A spatially explicit risk assessment was performed to detect candidate areas where active surveys should be performed to monitor changes in tick density or persistence after a hypothetical introduction. We detected areas where the critical abiotic (climate and biotic (host density factors overlap, including most of the Iberian peninsula, the Mediterranean coast of France, eastern Turkey, and portions of the western Black Sea region. Wild ungulate densities are unavailable for large regions of the territory, a factor that might affect the outcome of the study. The risk of successfully establishing H. marginatum populations at northern latitudes of its current colonization range seems to be still low, even if the climate has improved the performance of the tick in these areas.

Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

Science.gov (United States)

Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

2015-03-15

Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayten Erol

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Serdeczny, Olivia; Adams, Sophie; Baarsch, Florent; Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel; Perrette, Mahé; Reinhardt, Julia

2017-01-01

The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing

Greenland climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

2012-01-01

Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

2015-02-01

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

2012-12-01

The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a

Age and provenance of Triassic to Cenozoic sediments of West and Central Sarawak, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Breitfeld, H. Tim; Galin, Thomson; Hall, Robert

2015-04-01

Sarawak is located on the northern edge of Sundaland in NW Borneo. West and Central Sarawak include parts of the Kuching and Sibu Zones. These contain remnants of several sedimentary basins with ages from Triassic to Cenozoic. New light mineral, heavy mineral and U-Pb detrital zircon ages show differences in provenance reflecting the tectonic evolution of the region. The oldest clastic sediments are Triassic (Sadong Formation and its deep marine equivalent Kuching Formation). They were sourced by a Triassic (Carnian to Norian) volcanic arc and reworked Paleoproterozoic detritus derived from Cathaysialand. The Upper Jurassic to Cretaceous Pedawan Formation is interpreted as forearc basin fill with distinctive zircon populations indicating subduction beneath present-day West Sarawak which initiated in the Late Jurassic. Subsequent subduction until the early Late Cretaceous formed the Schwaner Mountains magmatic arc. After collision of SW Borneo and other microcontinental fragments with Sundaland in the early Late Cretaceous, deep marine sedimentation (Pedawan Formation) ceased, and there was uplift forming the regional Pedawan-Kayan unconformity. Two episodes of extension followed and were responsible for basin development on land in West Sarawak from the latest Cretaceous onwards, probably in a pull-apart setting. The first episode is associated with sediments of the Kayan Group, deposited in the Latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) to Eocene, and the second episode with Upper Eocene sediments of the Ketungau Basin. Zircon ages indicate volcanic activity throughout the Early Cenozoic in NW Borneo, and inherited zircon ages indicate reworking of Triassic and Cretaceous rocks. A large deep marine basin, the Rajang Basin, was north of the Lupar Line Fault in Central Sarawak (Sibu Zone) from the Late Cretaceous to the Late Eocene. Zircons from sediments of the Rajang Basin indicate they have similar ages and provenance to contemporaneous terrestrial sediments of the Kayan

Cenozoic basin thermal history reconstruction and petroleum systems in the eastern Colombian Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Parra, Mauricio; Mora, Andres; Ketcham, Richard A.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Almendral, Ariel

2017-04-01

Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic retro-arc foreland basins along the eastern margin of the Andes in South America host the world's best detrital record for the study of subduction orogenesis. There, the world's most prolific petroleum system occur in the northernmost of these foreland basin systems, in Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela, yet over 90% of the discovered hydrocarbons there occur in one single province in norteastern Venezuela. A successful industry-academy collaboration applied a multidisciplinary approach to the study of the north Andes with the aim of investigating both, the driving mechanisms of orogenesis, and its impact on hydrocarbon accumulation in eastern Colombia. The Eastern Cordillera is an inversion orogen located at the leading edge of the northern Andes. Syn-rift subsidence favored the accumulation of km-thick organic matter rich shales in a back-arc basin in the early Cretaceous. Subsequent late Cretaceous thermal subsidence prompted the accumulation of shallow marine sandstones and shales, the latter including the Turonian-Cenomanian main hydrocarbon source-rock. Early Andean uplift since the Paleocene led to development of a flexural basin, filled with mainly non-marine strata. We have studied the Meso-Cenozoic thermal evolution of these basins through modeling of a large thermochronometric database including hundreds of apatite and zircon fission-track and (U-Th)/He data, as well as paleothermometric information based on vitrinite reflectance and present-day temperatures measured in boreholes. The detrital record of Andean construction was also investigated through detrital zircon U-Pb geochronometry in outcrop and borehole samples. A comprehensive burial/exhumation history has been accomplished through three main modeling strategies. First, one-dimensional subsidence was used to invert the pre-extensional lithospheric thicknesses, the magnitude of stretching, and the resulting heat flow associated to extension. The amount of eroded section and

Paleomagnetic constraints on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic paleolatitudinal and rotational history of Indochina and South China : Review and updated kinematic reconstruction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, Shihu; Advokaat, Eldert L.; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J.J.; Koymans, Mathijs; Deng, Chenglong; Zhu, Rixiang

Paleomagnetic data have long been used to hypothesize that the Cenozoic extrusion of the Indochina Block along the left-lateral Ailao Shan-Red River fault, as a result of the India-Asia collision, may have been associated with a major southward paleolatitude shift of as much as 10–15°, and a

Progress report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force : recommended actions in support of a national climate change adaptation strategy

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-05

The scope, severity, and pace of : future climate change impacts are : difficult to predict. However, : observations and long-term scientific : trends indicate that the potential : impacts of a changing climate on : society and the environment will b...

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.