WorldWideScience

Sample records for cenozoic climate trends

  1. Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate during the Cenozoic: The Interplay between Tectonic and Orbital forcing (Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachos, James C.

    2016-04-01

    Prior to the mid-nineties much of our understanding of early Neogene and Paleogene climate was based on relatively low-resolution reconstructions. As a consequence, under-sampled periodic climate variability appeared as noise in global records (i.e., stacks), limiting our ability to fully evaluate mechanisms of past climate change. Efforts to address this limitation began in earnest with Ocean Drilling Program Leg 154, one of the first to successfully recover high-quality stratigraphically complete and relatively expanded successions of Paleogene pelagic sediments, allowing for astronomical tuning and the development of detailed paleoclimatic records extending back into the Oligocene. The strategies implemented during this Leg to locate, recover, and tune Paleogene sequences were adapted by subsequent ODP/IODP expeditions, ultimately contributing to the development of high-resolution astronomically-tuned climate records extending back to the Cretaceous. The collective contributions of these expeditions provided the necessary framework for characterizing climate variability on orbital time scales throughout the Cenozoic, including the major transitions and aberrations, the Oligocene-Miocene (O/M), Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). In this presentation I will review the most recent advances in reconstructing past climates on orbital time scales, and how these advances are altering our understanding of the triggering mechanisms for these major climate transitions, and discuss how the interplay between tectonic processes and orbital forcing as well as physical and geochemical feedbacks contributed to drive the more rapid and extreme aberrations.

  2. Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, David; Barron, John; Renaudie, Johan; Diver, Patrick; Türke, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂(18)O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂(13)C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p.9, detrended r>.6, all pplanktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

  3. Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Lazarus

    Full Text Available Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂(18O (climate and carbon cycle records (∂(13C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2. Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001, but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

  4. Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, David; Barron, John; Renaudie, Johan; Diver, Patrick; Türke, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂18O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂13C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂13C and pCO2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all pclimate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

  5. Regionwide Geodynamic Analyses of the Cenozoic Carbonate Burial in Sri Lanka Related to Climate and Atmospheric CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Asian tectonism and exhumation are critical components to develop modern icehouse climate. In this study, stratigraphic sections of eight wells in the Mannar and Cauvery basins were considered. The author demonstrated that this local system records a wealth of information to understated regional and global paleoclimatic trends over the Cenozoic era. The lithostratigraphic framework has been generally characterized by deposition of carbonate-rich sediments since the Middle Cenozoic. Geological provenance of carbonate sediments had probably related to local sources from Sri Lankan and Indian land masses. The main controlling factor of carbonate burial is rather questionable. However, this carbonate burial has indicated the possible link to the Middle to Late Cenozoic global climatic transition. This major climatic shift was characterized by long-term reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the Cenozoic era. Consequently, this geological trend (carbonate burial has a straightforward teleconnection to the global cooling towards the glaciated earth followed by the development of polar ice sheets that persist today.

  6. The impacts of Cenozoic climate and habitat changes on small mammal diversity of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Joshua X.; Hopkins, Samantha S. B.

    2017-02-01

    Through the Cenozoic, paleoclimate records show general trends of global cooling and increased aridity, and environments in North America shifted from predominantly forests to more open habitats. Paleobotanical records indicate grasses were present on the continent in the Eocene; however, paleosol and phytolith studies indicate that open habitats did not arise until the late Eocene or even later in the Oligocene. Studies of large mammalian herbivores have documented changes in ecomorphology and community structure through time, revealing that shifts in mammalian morphology occurred millions of years after the environmental changes thought to have triggered them. Smaller mammals, like rodents and lagomorphs, should more closely track climate and habitat changes due to their shorter generation times and smaller ranges, but these animals have received much less study. To examine changes in smaller mammals through time, we have assembled and analyzed an ecomorphological database of all North American rodent and lagomorph species. Analyses of these data found that rodent and lagomorph community structure changed dramatically through the Cenozoic, and shifts in diversity and ecology correspond closely with the timing of habitat changes. Cenozoic rodent and lagomorph species diversity is strongly biased by sampling of localities, but sampling-corrected diversity reveals diversity dynamics that, after an initial density-dependent diversification in the Eocene, track habitat changes and the appearance of new ecological adaptations. As habitats became more open and arid through time, rodent and lagomorph crown heights increased while burrowing, jumping, and cursorial adaptations became more prevalent. Through time, open-habitat specialists were added during periods of diversification, while closed-habitat taxa were disproportionately lost in subsequent diversity declines. While shifts among rodents and lagomorphs parallel changes in ungulate communities, they started

  7. Late-Cenozoic relief evolution under evolving climate: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champagnac, Jean-Daniel; Valla, Pierre; Herman, Fred

    2014-05-01

    The present review is an attempt to summarize quantitative evidence of Late Cenozoic changes in topographic relief on Earth. We first define different meanings of the word "relief", as it is commonly used, and detail the metrics used to quantify it. We then specify methodological tools used to quantify relief change (primarily lowtemperature thermochronometry and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides), and analyze published evidence for different regions. Our review first show that relief changes and rates of changes are more important at mid-, than high- or low-latitudes, and appear to be insensitive to mean precipitation rates. We also show that relief change is positive (relief increases) in most of the reported cases (~80%). We subsequently define two functional relationships between relief and erosion, depending on the chosen definition of relief, and propose a conceptual model of landscape memory. We conclude, following others, that erosion rates depends non-linearly on relief evolution, itself being a function of the spatial distribution and rates of erosion. The relief increases documented in this review may be related led to erosion rate increases during the same timescales. Lastly, we discuss the importance of glacial and periglacial processes on Late Cenozoic relief and erosion rate changes, and stress the importance of frost shattering and glacial erosion at mid- and high-latitudes.

  8. The impact of Southern Ocean gateways on the Cenozoic climate evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Heydt, Anna; Viebahn, Jan; Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-04-01

    During the Cenozoic period, which covers the last 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from warm "greenhouse" to colder "icehouse" conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. On the very long term the gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions as well as periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary (˜34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition (˜13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later, most likely at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (˜2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are now among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, notably the Drake Passage and the Tasman Gateway as well as the northward movement of Australia over this long time period, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, preconditions the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Here, we present results of a state-of-the art global climate model (CESM) under various continental configurations: (i) present day geometry, (ii) present day geometry with a closed Drake Passage and

  9. Cenozoic climate and paleogeographic changes in the Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Ogasawara, K.; Wolfe, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    This special issue represents the proceedings of the symposium, held as part of the 29th International Geological Congress, 1992. Other relevant papers on Cainozoic climate change in Japan are also included. Data is assembled from the Pacific Ocean itself, its marginal seas, in particular the Sea of Japan, and the surrounding coastal states. The palaeoenvironment of the region is reconstructed from the analysis of micropalaeontological, isotopic and stratigraphic data from deep-sea and terrestrial cores. -S.J.Stone

  10. Antarctic Cenozoic climate history from sedimentary records: ANDRILL and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, R M; Barrett, P J; Levy, R S; Naish, T R; Golledge, N R; Pyne, A

    2016-01-28

    Mounting evidence from models and geological data implies that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may behave in an unstable manner and retreat rapidly in response to a warming climate, which is a key factor motivating efforts to improve estimates of Antarctic ice volume contributions to future sea-level rise. Here, we review Antarctic cooling history since peak temperatures of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (approx. 50 Ma) to provide a framework for future initiatives to recover sediment cores from subglacial lakes and sedimentary basins in Antarctica's continental interior. While the existing inventory of cores has yielded important insights into the biotic and climatic evolution of Antarctica, strata have numerous and often lengthy time breaks, providing a framework of 'snapshots' through time. Further cores, and more work on existing cores, are needed to reconcile Antarctic records with the more continuous 'far-field' records documenting the evolution of global ice volume and deep-sea temperature. To achieve this, we argue for an integrated portfolio of drilling and coring missions that encompasses existing methodologies using ship- and sea-ice-/ice-shelf-based drilling platforms as well as recently developed seafloor-based drilling and subglacial access systems. We conclude by reviewing key technological issues that will need to be overcome.

  11. The evolution of mammal body sizes: responses to Cenozoic climate change in North American mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovegrove, B G; Mowoe, M O

    2013-06-01

    Explanations for the evolution of body size in mammals have remained surprisingly elusive despite the central importance of body size in evolutionary biology. Here, we present a model which argues that the body sizes of Nearctic mammals were moulded by Cenozoic climate and vegetation changes. Following the early Eocene Climate Optimum, forests retreated and gave way to open woodland and savannah landscapes, followed later by grasslands. Many herbivores that radiated in these new landscapes underwent a switch from browsing to grazing associated with increased unguligrade cursoriality and body size, the latter driven by the energetics and constraints of cellulose digestion (fermentation). Carnivores also increased in size and digitigrade, cursorial capacity to occupy a size distribution allowing the capture of prey of the widest range of body sizes. With the emergence of larger, faster carnivores, plantigrade mammals were constrained from evolving to large body sizes and most remained smaller than 1 kg throughout the middle Cenozoic. We find no consistent support for either Cope's Rule or Bergmann's Rule in plantigrade mammals, the largest locomotor guild (n = 1186, 59% of species in the database). Some cold-specialist plantigrade mammals, such as beavers and marmots, showed dramatic increases in body mass following the Miocene Climate Optimum which may, however, be partially explained by Bergmann's rule. This study reemphasizes the necessity of considering the evolutionary history and resultant form and function of mammalian morphotypes when attempting to understand contemporary mammalian body size distributions.

  12. Investigating Cenozoic climate change in tectonically active regions with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutz, Sebastian; Ehlers, Todd; Li, Jingmin; Werner, Martin; Stepanek, Christian; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Studies of Cenozoic palaeo-climates contribute to our understanding of contemporary climate change by providing insight into analogues such as the Pliocene (PLIO), and by evaluation of GCM (General Circulation Models) performance using the Mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, climate is a factor to be considered in the evolution of ecology, landscapes and mountains, and in the reconstruction of erosion histories. In this study, we use high-resolution (T159) ECHAM5 simulations to investigate pre-industrial (PI) and the the above mentioned palaeo-climates for four tectonically active regions: Alaska (St. Elias Range), the US Northwest Pacific (Cascade Range), western South America (Andes) and parts of Asia (Himalaya-Tibet). The PI climate simulation is an AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) style ECHAM5 experiment, whereas MH and LGM simulation are based on simulations conducted at the Alfred Wegner Institute, Bremerhaven. Sea surface boundary conditions for MH were taken from coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations (Wei and Lohmann, 2012; Zhang et al, 2013) and sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentration for the LGM are based on GLAMAP project reconstructions (Schäfer-Neth and Paul, 2003). Boundary conditions for the PLIO simulation are taken from the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) project and the employed PLIO vegetation boundary condition is created by means of the transfer procedure for the PRISM vegetation reconstruction to the JSBACH plant functional types as described by Stepanek and Lohmann (2012). For each of the investigated areas and time slices, the regional simulated climates are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability of precipitation, 2m air temperature and the intra-annual amplitude of the values. Results indicate the largest differences to a PI climate are observed for LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and warming

  13. High resolution cyclostratigraphy of the early Eocene – new insights into the origin of the Cenozoic cooling trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Westerhold

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Here we present a high-resolution cyclostratigraphy based on X-ray fluorescence (XRF core scanning data from a new record retrieved from the tropical western Atlantic (Demerara Rise, ODP Leg 207, Site 1258. The Eocene sediments from ODP Site 1258 cover magnetochrons C20 to C24 and show well developed cycles. This record includes the missing interval for reevaluating the early Eocene part of the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale (GPTS, also providing key aspects for reconstructing high-resolution climate variability during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO. Detailed spectral analysis demonstrates that early Eocene sedimentary cycles are characterized by precession frequencies modulated by short (100 kyr and long (405 kyr eccentricity with a generally minor obliquity component. Counting of both the precession and eccentricity cycles results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C21r through C24n. Our cyclostratigraphic framework also corroborates that the geochronology of the Eocene Green River Formation (Wyoming, USA is still questionable mainly due to the uncertain correlation of the "Sixth Tuff" to the GPTS.

    Right at the onset of the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend the dominant eccentricity-modulated precession cycles of ODP Site 1258 are interrupted by strong obliquity cycles for a period of ~800 kyr in the middle of magnetochron C22r. These distinct obliquity cycles at this low latitude site point to (1 a high-latitude driving mechanism on global climate variability from 50.1 to 49.4 Ma, and (2 seem to coincide with a significant drop in atmospheric CO2 concentration below a critical threshold between 2- and 3-times the pre-industrial level (PAL. The here newly identified orbital configuration of low eccentricity in combination with high obliquity amplitudes during this ~800-kyr period and the crossing of a critical pCO2 threshold may have led to the formation of the first ephemeral

  14. Book Review: Late Cenozoic Climate Change in Asia: Loess, Monsoon and Monsoon-arid Environment Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemens, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    Loess-Paleosol deposits drape >500,000 km2 of eastern China, spanning environments from the humid, monsoon-influenced regions near the coast to the arid, westerlies-dominated regions inland. Sections, up to hundreds of meters thick, are exposed in deeply incised river valleys and can be accessed as well by drilling. Combined, the high sedimentation rates and extensive geographic coverage make these sections unique among global terrestrial sediment archives. The Chinese loess-paleosol sequences, and the arid interior regions to the northwest, record diverse aspects of geologic and environmental change ranging from the tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau (106 year time scale) through glacial-interglacial scale changes in global ice volume and greenhouse gasses (105 year time scale) on down through the orbital (104 years) to millennial and centennial scale events (103-102 year) relevant to the underpinnings of human interactions with changing environmental pressures. 'Late Cenozoic Climate Chang in Asia: Loess, Monsoon and Monsoon-arid Environment Evolution' is a timely contribution that synthesizes findings derived from the extensive work in these areas, places the findings in the broader context of global climate change and helps to define avenues for future research.

  15. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P.; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J.

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters—notably, rising average temperature—there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  16. Precise U-Pb dating of Cenozoic tropical reef carbonates: Linking the evolution of Cenozoic Caribbean reef carbonates to climatic and environmental changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva-Tamayo, J. C.; Ducea, M.; Cardona, A.; Montes, C.; Rincon, D.; Machado, A.; Flores, A.; Sial, A.; Pardo, A.; Niño, H.; Ramirez, V.; Jaramillo, C.; Zapata, P.; Barrios, L.; Rosero, S.; Bayona, G.; Zapata, V.

    2012-04-01

    Coral reefs are very diverse and productive ecosystems; and have long been the base of the economic activity of several countries along the tropics. Because coral reefs are very sensitive to environmental changes and their adaptation to changing stressing conditions is very slow, the combination of current rapid environmental changes and the additional stresses created by growing human populations (i.e. rapid anthropogenic CO2 additions to the atmosphere),plus the economic and coastal development may become a lethal synergy. The ongoing acidification of modern oceans is a major issue of concern because it may have serious consequences for the survival of shelly marine invertebrates as the 21st century progresses. Ocean Acidification (OA) is now being driven by rapid CO2 release to the atmosphere. Although evidences of the devastating effects of oceanic acidification in the marine biota are provided by the decreased rate of coral skeleton production and the reduced ability of algae and free-swimming zooplankton to maintain protective shells, among others, predicting the effects of oceanic acidification on the future oceans (2050-2100) has remained rather difficult because the atmospheric CO2 sequestration by the global oceans occurs in geologic time scales. Important changes in the atmospheric pCO2 and major climatic/environmental events seem to have controlled the evolution of the Cenozoic equatorial-tropical carbonates r1-10. Rapid additions of green house gases to the atmosphere occurred during the Paleocene-Eocene transition and would have promoted several other events of global warming until the early Oligocene (i.e. the Eocene thermal maximum). These periods of high greenhouse gases concentrations would have also resulted on OA, affecting the reef carbonate ecology and tropical carbonate budgets. Relating temporal variations in the Cenozoic reef carbonate structure, ecology and factory is vital to help understanding and predicting the future effects of the

  17. Tachylyte in Cenozoic basaltic lavas from the Czech Republic and Iceland: contrasting compositional trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrych, Jaromír; Krmíček, Lukáš; Teschner, Claudia; Řanda, Zdeněk; Skála, Roman; Jonášová, Šárka; Fediuk, Ferry; Adamovič, Jiří; Pokorný, Richard

    2016-11-01

    Tachylytes from rift-related volcanic rocks were recognized as: (i) irregular veinlets in host alkaline lava flows of the Kozákov volcano, Czech Republic, (ii) (sub)angular xenoliths in alkaline lava of the feeding channel of the Bukovec volcano, Czech Republic, and (iii) paleosurface of a tholeiitic lava flow from Hafrafell, Iceland. The tachylyte from Kozákov is phonotephrite to tephriphonolite in composition while that from Bukovec corresponds to trachyandesite to tephriphonolite. Both glass and host rock from Hafrafell are of tholeiitic basalt composition. The tachylyte from Kozákov, compared with the host rock, revealed a substantial enrichment in major elements such as Si, Al and alkalis along with Rb, Sr, Ba, Nb, Zr, REE, Th and U. The tachylyte from Bukovec displays contrasting trends in the incompatible element contents. The similarity in composition of the Hafrafell tachylyte paleosurface layer and parental tholeiitic basalt is characteristic for lavas. The host/parent rocks and tachylytes have similar initial Sr-Nd characteristics testifying for their co-magmatic sources. The initial ɛNd values of host/parent rocks and tachylytes from the Bohemian Massif (+3.4 to +3.9) and those from Iceland (+6.3) are interpreted as primary magma values. Only the tachylyte from Bukovec shows a different ɛNd value of -2.1, corresponding to a xenolith of primarily sedimentary/metamorphic origin. The tachylyte from Kozákov is a product of an additional late magmatic portion of fluids penetrating through an irregular fissure system of basaltic lava. The Bukovec tachylyte is represented by xenoliths originated during the interaction of ascending basaltic melt with granitoids or orthogneisses, whereas the Hafrafell tachylyte is a product of a rapid cooling on the surface of a basalt flow.

  18. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

  19. Transferring ANDRILL Research on Antarctic Cenozoic Climate Change into the Classroom: Teaching Exercises that build Student Skills and Content Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, K. S.; Krissek, L. A.; Jones, M. H.; Leckie, R. M.; St. John, K.

    2009-12-01

    This set of undergraduate student-active learning exercises focuses on the status and role of Antarctica in Cenozoic climate change, and builds skills and knowledge required to evaluate sediment cores retrieved from the floor of McMurdo Sound by the ANDRILL Project. Students discover new advances in understanding late Neogene Antarctic glacial history based on recent ANDRILL results. These exercises are part of the larger suite of activities in the project “Building Core Knowledge and Reconstructing Earth History”, which use authentic data to teach foundational concepts of climate change through sediment core archives (NSF Grant # 0737335). The Antarctic exercises involve a review of the composite benthic foraminifer oxygen isotope curve, and of global climate interpretations based in part on this record. Basic geographic and geologic knowledge of Antarctica and cryospheric processes are constructed in order to build the rationale for selecting drillsites in McMurdo Sound. Student attention is then focused on the use of sedimentary facies and depositional environments in core interpretation, with particular attention to the facies associations that are diagnostic of ice-proximal and ice-distal settings in high latitudes. This is constructed through diagrams, geological reasoning, use of core images and core logs, and culminates in the construction of models for ice-retreat and ice-advance sequences. The general climate record of the entire ANDRILL 1-B core log (1285 m) is then interpreted, by characterizing each of the key lithostratigraphic sub-units in terms of the dominant depositional environments represented. Students write a brief history of the late Miocene-Pliocene climatic and environmental conditions in the Ross Sea region. Students conclude by evaluating facies patterns in the ANDRILL 1-B Pliocene sequence completing calculations that lead to interpretations of orbitally paced Pliocene ice sheet oscillations.

  20. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temper

  1. Climate, critters, and cetaceans: Cenozoic drivers of the evolution of modern whales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Felix G; Uhen, Mark D

    2010-02-19

    Modern cetaceans, a poster child of evolution, play an important role in the ocean ecosystem as apex predators and nutrient distributors, as well as evolutionary "stepping stones" for the deep sea biota. Recent discussions on the impact of climate change and marine exploitation on current cetacean populations may benefit from insights into what factors have influenced cetacean diversity in the past. Previous studies suggested that the rise of diatoms as dominant marine primary producers and global temperature change were key factors in the evolution of modern whales. Based on a comprehensive diversity data set, we show that much of observed cetacean paleodiversity can indeed be explained by diatom diversity in conjunction with variations in climate as indicated by oxygen stable isotope records (delta18O).

  2. Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostou, Eleni; John, Eleanor H; Edgar, Kirsty M; Foster, Gavin L; Ridgwell, Andy; Inglis, Gordon N; Pancost, Richard D; Lunt, Daniel J; Pearson, Paul N

    2016-05-19

    The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago), was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500-3,000 parts per million, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon-climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ(11)B) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the

  3. Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostou, Eleni; John, Eleanor H.; Edgar, Kirsty M.; Foster, Gavin L.; Ridgwell, Andy; Inglis, Gordon N.; Pancost, Richard D.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pearson, Paul N.

    2016-05-01

    The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago), was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500-3,000 parts per million, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon-climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ11B) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the

  4. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    by extensive vegetation cover as little bedrock is exposed and soils are well-developed. In case of climate cooling the tree limit lowers, exposing more bedrock for erosion. Furthermore, the erosional regime changes dramatically in the presence of alpine glaciers and cirques and when periglacial processes......, 1978. 275(5676): p. 121-123. 23. Collinson, M.E., Fruit and seed floras from the Palaeocene/Eocene transition and subsequent Eocene in southern England: Comparison and palaeoenvironmental implications. GFF, 2000. 122(1): p. 36-37. 24. Eldrett, J.S., et al., Continental ice in Greenland during...

  5. A climate trend analysis of Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, Jim; Rowland, Jim; Marshall, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s. Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops. The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba. Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects. In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

  6. Tectonic and climate driven fluctuations in the stratigraphic base level of a Cenozoic continental coal basin, northwestern Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva Tamayo, J. C.; Sierra, G. M.; Correa, L. G.

    2008-12-01

    Changes in the sedimentologic and stratigraphic characteristics of the coal-bearing middle Oligocene-late Miocene siliciclastic Amagá Formation, northwestern Colombia, reflect major fluctuations in the stratigraphic base level within the Amagá Basin, which paralleled three major stages of evolution of the middle Cenozoic Andean Orogeny. These stages, which are also traceable by the changes in the compositional modes of sandstones, controlled the occurrence of important coal deposits. The initial stage of evolution of the Amagá Basin was related to the initial uplift of the Central Cordillera of Colombia around 25 Ma, which promoted moderate subsidence rates and high rates of sediment supply into the basin. This allowed the development of aggradational braided rivers and widespread channel amalgamation resulting in poor preservation of both, low energy facies and geomorphic elements. The presence of poorly preserved Alfisols within the scarce flood plains and the absence of swamp deposits suggest arid climate during this stage. The compositional modes of sandstones suggest sediment supply from uplifted basement-cored blocks. The second stage of evolution was related to the late Oligocene eastward migration of the Pre-Andean tholeitic magmatic arc from the Western Cordillera towards the Cauca depression. This generated extensional movements along the Amagá Basin, enhancing the subsidence and increasing the accommodation space along the basin. As a result of the enhanced subsidence rates, meandering rivers developed, allowing the formation of extensive swamps deposits (currently coal beds). The excellent preservation of Entisols and Alfisols within the flood plain deposits suggests rapid channels migration and a humid climate during deposition. Moderate to highly mature channel sandstones support this contention, and point out the Central Cordillera of Colombia as the main source of sediment. Enhanced subsidence during this stage also prevented channels

  7. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B; Schlenker, Wolfram; Costa-Roberts, Justin

    2011-07-29

    Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.

  8. A climate trend analysis of Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James; White, Libby

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

  9. Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

    2013-01-01

    This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

  10. Historical Climate and Streamflow Trends in Santa Ana River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejia, D.; Sultana, R.; Tang, V.

    2015-12-01

    Santa Ana River watershed, located in Southern California, is the home of more than 5 million people. Population is projected to double within the next 50 years in the 2,650 square miles watershed. With prolonged drought conditions, and projected climate change, a strong concern exists about sustainable water supply of the area. In this study, historic climate and streamflow trend from water year 1965 to 2014 is analyzed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Climate trends are studied using annual rainfall, and annual average maximum and minimum temperature at 5 and 4 weather stations, respectively. Three of the precipitation stations show precipitation is decreasing in the watershed while minimum and maximum temperature has an increasing trend at three stations (p < 0.05). To assess whether streamflow and stream-channel characteristics are tended to increase or decrease monotonically with time, four variables - (1) annual maximum peak, (2) annual mean, (3) low to moderate and (4) moderate to high maximum peak streamflow were tested at 20 stream gauge sites. Only at 5 stream gage stations, significant streamflow trend is observed. At two stream gages, annual peak and annual average streamflow is increasing and at two stations, annual average streamflow has a decreasing trend. Low to moderate peak streamflow is increasing at two gage locations but there is no monotonic trend in moderate to high flows. As precipitation is decreasing in some part of the watershed, the effect of increasing urbanization in the area can be attributed for the localized increase in mean and peak streamflow. The trend analysis in weather and stream gage data will be presented in detail.

  11. The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2015-01-01

    Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ∼10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies. PMID:25691735

  12. Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L

    2014-07-01

    Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma.

  13. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  14. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  15. Climate change and predicted trend of fungal keratitis in Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad-Hussein, A; El-Mofty, H M; Hassanien, M A

    2011-06-01

    Rising rates of invasive fungal infections may be linked to global climate change. A study was made of the trend of ophthalmic fungal corneal keratitis in the greater Cairo area of Egypt and its association with climate records during the same period. Data on diagnosed cases of fungal keratitis were collected from records of ophthalmic departments of Cairo University hospital and atmospheric temperature and humidity for the greater Cairo area were obtained from online records. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in the relative frequency of keratomycosis during 1997-2007. The rise correlated significantly with rises n min,mum temperature and the maximum atmospheric humidity in the greater Cairo area over the same period (after exclusion of the effect of the maximum atmos pheric temperature). The predicted increase in keratomycosis up to the year 2030 corresponds to predicted increases in CO2 emissions and surface temperature from climate change models for Egypt.

  16. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  17. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.;

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS...

  18. Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events in southern Iberian Peninsula: Implications for the evolutionary history of freshwater fish of the genus Squalius (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perea, Silvia; Cobo-Simon, Marta; Doadrio, Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    Southern Iberian freshwater ecosystems located at the border between the European and African plates represent a tectonically complex region spanning several geological ages, from the uplifting of the Betic Mountains in the Serravalian-Tortonian periods to the present. This area has also been subjected to the influence of changing climate conditions since the Middle-Upper Pliocene when seasonal weather patterns were established. Consequently, the ichthyofauna of southern Iberia is an interesting model system for analyzing the influence of Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events on its evolutionary history. The cyprinids Squalius malacitanus and Squalius pyrenaicus are allopatrically distributed in southern Iberia and their evolutionary history may have been defined by Cenozoic tectonic and climatic events. We analyzed MT-CYB (510 specimens) and RAG1 (140 specimens) genes of both species to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships and to estimate divergence times and ancestral distribution ranges of the species and their populations. We also assessed their levels of genetic structure and diversity as well as the amount of gene flow between populations. To investigate recent paleogeographical and climatic factors in southern Iberia, we modeled changes-through-time in sea level from the LGM to the present. Phylogenetic, geographic and population structure analyses revealed two well-supported species (S. malacitanus and S. pyrenaicus) in southern Iberia and two subclades (Atlantic and Mediterranean) within S. malacitanus. The origin of S. malacitanus and the separation of its Atlantic and Mediterranean populations occurred during the Serravalian-Tortonian and Miocene-Pliocene periods, respectively. These divergence events occurred in the Middle Pliocene and Pleistocene in S. pyrenaicus. In both species, Atlantic basins possessed populations with higher genetic diversity than Mediterranean, which may be explained by the Janda Lagoon. The isolation of S. malacitanus was

  19. Long-period orbital climate forcing. Cyclostratigraphic studies of Cenozoic continental and marine successions in Europe. Geologica Ultraiectina (297)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abels, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital climate forcing is well-known for its strong impact on Earth’s climate as for example the switching from glacial to inter-glacial states in the Late Pleistocene. Typical ‘Milankovitch’ cycles are climatic precession (21.000 years or 21 kyrs), obliquity (41 kyrs), and short and long eccentric

  20. Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Qihu; CHEN Yaning; SHEN Yanjun; LI Xingong; XU Jianhua

    2011-01-01

    Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang,China.Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test,inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation,and R/S methods.The results indicate that:(1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years,but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation;(2) for temperature increase,the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase,though the latitude has greater influence on the increase.Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang,especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang.Ili,which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang,shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general,the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5)Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the currant trends.

  1. Sedimentary environments of the Cenozoic sedimentary debris found in the moraines of the Grove Mountains, east Antarctica and its climatic implications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG Aimin; LIU Xiaohan; LEE Jong Ik; LI Xiaoli; HUANG Feixin

    2004-01-01

    During the field work of the 1998~1999's and 1999~2000's Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHNARE) in the Grove Mountains, east Antarctica, some Cenozoic sedimentary debris are found in two terminal moraine banks over the blue ice near Harding Mount in the center of this region. All the debris are of characteristics of glaciogenic diamicton and belong to the products of the glacial movements of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. In this paper, the authors make a detailed study on the sedimentary environments of the sedimentary debris through petrologic, sedimentological, mineralogical, and geo-chemical methods. Characteristics of their sedimentary textures and structures, grain size distributions, quartz grains' surface textures and features, together with their geo-chemical compositions all show that these sedimentary rocks are a kind of subglacial lodgement tills which are deposited in the ice sheet frontal area by reactions of glacial movements and glaciogenic melt water. Their palaeoenvironmental implications in revealing the retreat history of East Antarctic Ice Sheet are discussed. The authors draw the conclusion from current study that the glacial frontal of the East Antarctica Ice Sheet might have been retreated to this area during the Pliocene Epoch, which represents a warm climate event accompanied by a large-scale ice sheet retreat in Antarctica at that time.

  2. Epoch-based likelihood models reveal no evidence for accelerated evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles in response to cenozoic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Benedict; Lee, Michael S Y

    2015-09-01

    A broad scale analysis of the evolution of viviparity across nearly 4,000 species of squamates revealed that origins increase in frequency toward the present, raising the question of whether rates of change have accelerated. We here use simulations to show that the increased frequency is within the range expected given that the number of squamate lineages also increases with time. Novel, epoch-based methods implemented in BEAST (which allow rates of discrete character evolution to vary across time-slices) also give congruent results, with recent epochs having very similar rates to older epochs. Thus, contrary to expectations, there was no accelerated burst of origins of viviparity in response to global cooling during the Cenozoic or glacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, if one accepts the conventional view that viviparity is more likely to evolve than to be lost, and also the evidence here that viviparity has evolved with similar regularity throughout the last 200 Ma, then the absence of large, ancient clades of viviparous squamates (analogs to therian mammals) requires explanation. Viviparous squamate lineages might be more prone to extinction than are oviparous lineages, due to their prevalance at high elevations and latitudes and thus greater susceptibility to climate fluctuations. If so, the directional bias in character evolution would be offset by the bias in extinction rates.

  3. North Atlantic-Fennoscandian Holocene climate trends and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sejrup, Hans Petter; Seppä, Heikki; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; de Vernal, Anne; Renssen, Hans; Husum, Katrine; Jennings, Anne; Andrews, John T.

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the mechanisms behind Holocene regional climate trends from north of 58°N in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed and a temperature anomaly stack produced from 81 proxy derived summer temperature time series from 74 sites. The PC results show distinctly different trends for near-surface versus surface temperatures, demonstrating the importance of handling these separately. The first PC of weighted sea surface summer temperature time series and continental time series explains 45 ± 8% of the variance, where the uncertainty is the standard deviation of the distribution of variance explained across the 1000 age-uncertain ensemble members. PC1 has a relatively uniform expression over the whole region, closely following the summer insolation at 65°N. The second PC explains 22 ± 4% of the variance and shows a non-uniform expression, with loadings in opposite directions in the northern and southeastern parts of the region. Comparing the PC time series with model runs and with the timing of the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), suggest that this pattern reflects both topographic and albedo effects of the LIS as well as release of meltwater into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Comparing the stack of gridded records with published global stacks reveals an unusual Holocene temperature development in the North Atlantic-Fennoscandian region most likely resulting from the location relative to the decaying LIS.

  4. Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The United States Department of Agriculture classifies plant hardiness zones based on mean annual minimum temperatures over some past period (currently 1976–2005. Since temperatures are changing, these values may benefit from updating. I outline a multistep methodology involving imputation of missing station values, geostatistical interpolation, and time series smoothing to update a climate variable’s expected value compared to a climatology period and apply it to estimating annual minimum temperature change over the coterminous United States. I show using hindcast experiments that trend estimation gives more accurate predictions of minimum temperatures 1-2 years in advance compared to the previous 30 years’ mean alone. I find that annual minimum temperature increased roughly 2.5 times faster than mean temperature (~2.0 K versus ~0.8 K since 1970, and is already an average of 1.2  0.5 K (regionally up to ~2 K above the 1976–2005 mean, so that much of the country belongs to warmer hardiness zones compared to the current map. The methods developed may also be applied to estimate changes in other climate variables and geographic regions.

  5. Using Google Dengue Trends to Estimate Climate Effects in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluskin, Rebecca T.; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the association between Dengue Fever (DF) and climate in Mexico with real-time data from Google Dengue Trends (GDT) and climate data from NASA Earth observing systems. Introduction The incidence of dengue fever (DF) has increased 30 fold between 1960 and 2010 [1]. The literature suggests that temperature plays a major role in the life cycle of the mosquito vector and in turn, the timing of DF outbreaks [2]. We use real-time data from GDT and real-time temperature estimates from NASA Earth observing systems to examine the relationship between dengue and climate in 17 Mexican states from 2003–2011. For the majority of states, we predict that a warming climate will increase the number of days the minimum temperature is within the risk range for dengue. Methods The GDT estimates are derived from internet search queries and use similar methods as those developed for Google Flu Trends [3]. To validate GDT data, we ran a correlation between GDT and dengue data from the Mexican Secretariat of Health (2003–2010). To analyze the relationship between GDT and varying lags of temperature, we constructed a time series meta-analysis. The mean, max and min of temperature were tested at lags 0 –12 weeks using data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications. Finally, we built a binomial model to identify the minimum 5° C temperature range associated with a 50% or higher Dengue activity threshold as predicted by GDT. Results The time series plot of GDT data and the Mexican Secretariat of Health data (2003– 2010) (Figure 1) produced a correlation coefficient of 0.87. The time series meta-analysis results for 17 states showed an increase in minimum temperature at lag week 8 had the greatest odds of dengue incidence, 1.12 Odds Ratio (1.09–1.16, 95% Confidence Interval). The comparison of dengue activity above 50% in each state to the minimum temperature at lag week 8 showed 14/17 states had an association with warmest 5

  6. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  7. Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J; O'Malley, Robert T; Siegel, David A; McClain, Charles R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Feldman, Gene C; Milligan, Allen J; Falkowski, Paul G; Letelier, Ricardo M; Boss, Emmanuel S

    2006-12-01

    Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.

  8. From School of Rock to Building Core Knowledge: Teaching about Cenozoic climate change with data and case studies from the primary literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckie, R. M.; St John, K. K.; Jones, M. H.; Pound, K. S.; Krissek, L. A.; Peart, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    The School of Rock (SoR) began in 2005 as a pilot geoscience professional development program for K-12 teachers and informal educators aboard the JOIDES Resolution (JR). Since then, the highly successful SoR program, sponsored by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership's Deep Earth Academy, has conducted on-shore professional development at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) core repository in College Station, TX, and on the JR. The success of the SoR program stems from the natural synergy that develops between research scientists and educators when their combined pedagogical skills and scientific knowledge are used to uncover a wealth of scientific ocean drilling discoveries and research findings. Educators are challenged with authentic inquiry based on sediment archives; these lessons from the past are then made transferable to the general public and to classrooms through the creation of age-appropriate student-active learning materials (http://www.oceanleadership.org/education/deep-earth-academy/educators/classroom-activities/). This science made accessible approach was the basis for a successful NSF Course Curriculum and Laboratory Improvement (CCLI) proposal to develop teaching materials for use at the college level. Our Building Core Knowledge project resulted in a series of 14 linked, yet independent, inquiry-based exercise modules around the theme of Reconstructing Earth's Climate History. All of the exercises build upon authentic data from peer reviewed scientific publications. These multiple part modules cover fundamental paleoclimate principles, tools and proxies, and Cenozoic case studies. It is important to teach students how we know what we know. For example, paleoclimate records must be systematically described, ages must be determined, and indirect evidence (i.e., proxies) of past climate must be analyzed. Much like the work of a detective, geoscientists and paleoclimatologists reconstruct what happened in the past, and when and how it

  9. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Julie M.; Gille, Sarah T.; Goosse, Hugues; Abram, Nerilie J.; Canziani, Pablo O.; Charman, Dan J.; Clem, Kyle R.; Crosta, Xavier; de Lavergne, Casimir; Eisenman, Ian; England, Matthew H.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Frankcombe, Leela M.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Morrison, Adele K.; Orsi, Anaïs J.; Raphael, Marilyn N.; Renwick, James A.; Schneider, David P.; Simpkins, Graham R.; Steig, Eric J.; Stenni, Barbara; Swingedouw, Didier; Vance, Tessa R.

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

  10. Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficklin, Darren L.; Robeson, Scott M.; Knouft, Jason H.

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing the impacts of climatic change on hydrologic processes is critical for managing freshwater systems. Specifically, there is a need to evaluate how the two major components of streamflow, baseflow and stormflow, have responded to recent trends in climate. We derive baseflow and stormflow for 674 sites throughout the United States from 1980 to 2010 to examine their associations with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and maximum/minimum temperature. The northeastern (NE) and southwestern (SW) United States display consistent trends in baseflow and stormflow: increasing during fall and winter in the NE and decreasing during all seasons in the SW. Trends elsewhere and at other times of the year are more variable but still associated with changes in climate. Counter to expectations, baseflow and stormflow trends throughout the United States tend to change concurrently. These trends are primarily associated with precipitation trends, but increases in PET are influential and likely to become important in the future.

  11. Climate change or climate cycles? Snowpack trends in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Dwight; McDonald, Shea

    2013-01-01

    Climate change could significantly influence seasonal streamflow and water availability in the snowpack-fed watersheds of Washington, USA. Descriptions of snowpack decline often use linear ordinary least squares (OLS) models to quantify this change. However, the region's precipitation is known to be related to climate cycles. If snowpack decline is more closely related to these cycles, an OLS model cannot account for this effect, and thus both descriptions of trends and estimates of decline could be inaccurate. We used intervention analysis to determine whether snow water equivalent (SWE) in 25 long-term snow courses within the Olympic and Cascade Mountains are more accurately described by OLS (to represent gradual change), stationary (to represent no change), or step-stationary (to represent climate cycling) models. We used Bayesian information-theoretic methods to determine these models' relative likelihood, and we found 90 models that could plausibly describe the statistical structure of the 25 snow courses' time series. Posterior model probabilities of the 29 "most plausible" models ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 (mean = 0.58, s = 0.15). The majority of these time series (55%) were best represented as step-stationary models with a single breakpoint at 1976/77, coinciding with a major shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, estimates of SWE decline differed by as much as 35% between statistically plausible models of a single time series. This ambiguity is a critical problem for water management policy. Approaches such as intervention analysis should become part of the basic analytical toolkit for snowpack or other climatic time series data.

  12. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kallache

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  13. A trend analysis of global fire activity. Is it land use or climate the main driver?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Silva, Joao M. N.; Lopez-Saldaña, Gerardo; Pereira, Jose M. C.

    2016-04-01

    We perform a global trend analysis of active fire counts at 0.5o spatial resolution, using 156 months (January 2001 - December 2013) of MODIS Climate Modelling Grid data (TERRA). We use the Contextual Mann-Kendall (CMK) test to assess the statistical significance at cell level and found that 13% of the global land area displays statistically significant active fire count trends, with a slight predominance of negative trends (50.63% of the total significant cells). We perform the same trend analysis with the unexplained variability (residuals) between active fires and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that is used as a proxy for climate. There is agreement between the main patterns from the trend analysis coming from the residuals and the active fire trends, implying that the main contemporary fire trends are not climate driven. Spatially coherent patches with significant trends were found in all continents (with the obvious exception of Antarctica). The majority of significant trends occur in areas of high fire incidence, and both increasing and decreasing trends appear to be associated with land use change processes. The analysis reveals large negative trends at the Sahel and between Russia and Kazakhstan, whereas a massive and coherent positive trend appears in southeastern Asia. Smaller patches of positive trends appear in southeastern United States and in Mexico, as well as in Brazil and between Argentina and Paraguay, and in Asia in India. There are also negative trends in Brazil, Argentina and in Australia. The study highlights the land use activities as the main driver of these trends, but also the need for data driven analyses and longer time series for future studies in order to gain better knowledge on fire occurrence.

  14. Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation

    CERN Document Server

    Douglass, D H; Singer, F

    2004-01-01

    As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with altitude until it reaches a maximum ratio with respect to the surface of as much as 1.5 to 2.0 at about 200 to 400 hPa. However, the temperature trends from several independent observational data sets show decreasing as well as mostly negative values. This disparity indicates that the three models examined here fail to account for the effects of greenhouse forcings.

  15. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Domroes

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations. As far as temperatures are concerned, a distinct increase could be shown over the period 1901–2000 with a strong trend of warming over the more recent period 1976–2000.

  16. Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keim, B.D.; Wilson, A.M.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.

    2003-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC's U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal-to century-scale climate change studies.

  17. Plant molecular stress responses face climate change. Trends in Plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahuja, I.; Vos, de R.C.H.; Bones, A.M.; Hall, R.D.

    2010-01-01

    Environmental stress factors such as drought, elevated temperature, salinity and rising CO2 affect plant growth and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture. This has become a hot issue due to concerns about the effects of climate change on plant resources, biodiversity and global food secur

  18. The impact of economic recession on climate change: eight trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Obani; J. Gupta

    2015-01-01

    In the context of deadlocked climate change negotiations, and the expectation that legally binding targets may only set in as early as 2020, this paper addresses the question of whether the current economic recession in major economies in the North can help us buy time by reducing the emissions of g

  19. Technology and Climate Trends in PV Module Degradation: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, D. C.; Wohlgemuth, J. H.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2012-10-01

    To sustain the commercial success of photovoltaic (PV) technology it is vital to know how power output decreases with time. Unfortunately, it can take years to accurately measure the long-term degradation of new products, but past experience on older products can provide a basis for prediction of degradation rates of new products. An extensive search resulted in more than 2000 reported degradation rates with more than 1100 reported rates that include some or all IV parameters. In this paper we discuss how the details of the degradation data give clues about the degradation mechanisms and how they depend on technology and climate zones as well as how they affect current and voltage differently. The largest contributor to maximum power decline for crystalline Si technologies is short circuit current (or maximum current) degradation and to a lesser degree loss in fill factor. Thin-film technologies are characterized by a much higher contribution from fill factor particularly for humid climates. Crystalline Si technologies in hot & humid climates also display a higher probability to show a mixture of losses (not just short circuit current losses) compared to other climates. The distribution for the module I-V parameters (electrical mismatch) was found to change with field exposure. The distributions not only widened but also developed a tail at the lower end, skewing the distribution.

  20. Technology and Climate Trends in PV Module Degradation (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, D.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kurtz, S.

    2012-10-01

    To sustain the commercial success of photovoltaic (PV) technology it is vital to know how power output decreases with time. Unfortunately, it can take years to accurately measure the long-term degradation of new products, but past experience on older products can provide a basis for prediction of degradation rates of new products. An extensive search resulted in more than 2000 reported degradation rates with more than 1100 reported rates that include some or all IV parameters. In this presentation we discuss how the details of the degradation data give clues about the degradation mechanisms and how they depend on technology and climate zones as well as how they affect current and voltage differently. The largest contributor to maximum power decline for crystalline Si technologies is short circuit current (or maximum current) degradation and to a lesser degree loss in fill factor. Thin-film technologies are characterized by a much higher contribution from fill factor particularly for humid climates. Crystalline Si technologies in hot & humid climates also display a higher probability to show a mixture of losses (not just short circuit current losses) compared to other climates. The distribution for the module I-V parameters (electrical mismatch) was found to change with field exposure. The distributions not only widened but also developed a tail at the lower end, skewing the distribution.

  1. Incorporating climate change trends to near future variability of crop yields in Iberia Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Baethgen, Walter E.; Fernandes, Kátia; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we analyze the effects of near future climate variability on cropping systems in Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this purpose, we generated climate sequences that simulate realistic variability on annual to decadal time scales. The sequences incorporate nonlinear climate change trends, using statistical methods and and an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Then, the climate sequences are temporal downscaled into daily weather data and used as inputs to crop models. As case study, we evaluate the impacts of plausible future climate scenarios on rain-fed wheat yield two agricultural locations in IP. We adapted the method by Greene et al., (2012 and 2015) for informing climate projections for the coming decades with a combination of seasonal to interannual and anthropogenically forced climate change information for accounting the Near-term Climate Change. Long-term data containing solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall are needed to apply this method. The climate variability observed was decomposed into long-range trend, decadal and interannual variability to understand the relative importance of each time scale. The interannual variability was modeled based on the observational records. The results of this study may have important implications on public and private sectors to analyze the probabilistic projections of impacts and agronomic adaptations of near future climate variability in Iberian Peninsula. This study has been funded by MACSUR project from FACCE-JPI. References Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., Gonzalez, P.L., Ines, A.V. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J., 2015.A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 203: 217-228. Greene, A.M., Hellmuth, M. and Lumsden, T., 2012. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resources

  2. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schaefer

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations.

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  4. Break and trend analysis of EUMETSAT Climate Data Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doutriaux-Boucher, Marie; Zeder, Joel; Lattanzio, Alessio; Khlystova, Iryna; Graw, Kathrin

    2016-04-01

    EUMETSAT reprocessed imagery acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board Meteosat 8-9. The data covers the period from 2004 to 2012. Climate Data Records (CDRs) of atmospheric parameters such as Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) as well as Clear and All Sky Radiances (CSR and ASR) have been generated. Such CDRs are mainly ingested by ECMWF to produce a reanalysis data. In addition, EUMETSAT produced a long CDR (1982-2004) of land surface albedo exploiting imagery acquired by the Meteosat Visible and Infrared Imager (MVIRI) on board Meteosat 2-7. Such CDR is key information in climate analysis and climate models. Extensive validation has been performed for the surface albedo record and a first validation of the winds and clear sky radiances have been done. All validation results demonstrated that the time series of all parameter appear homogeneous at first sight. Statistical science offers a variety of analyses methods that have been applied to further analyse the homogeneity of the CDRs. Many breakpoint analysis techniques depend on the comparison of two time series which incorporates the issue that both may have breakpoints. This paper will present a quantitative and statistical analysis of eventual breakpoints found in the MVIRI and SEVIRI CDRs that includes attribution of breakpoints to changes of instruments and other events in the data series compared. The value of different methods applied will be discussed with suggestions how to further develop this type of analysis for quality evaluation of CDRs.

  5. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  6. Impacts of the superimposed climate trends on droughts over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Sun, Changfeng

    2016-05-01

    This study reveals the impacts of climatic variable trends on drought severity in Xinjiang, China. Four drought indices, including the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), Erinç's index (I m), Sahin's index (I sh), and UNEP aridity index (AI), were used to compare drought severity. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test were applied to analyze the nonlinear components and trends of the climatic variable and drought indices. Four and six climatic scenarios were generated in sc-PDSI, I m, I sh, and AI with different combinations of the observed and detrended climatic variables, respectively. In Xinjiang, generally increasing trends in minimal, average, and maximal air temperature (T min, T ave, T max) and precipitation (P) were found, whereas a decreasing trend in wind speed at 2 m height (U 2) was observed. There were significantly increasing trends in all of the four studied drought indices. Drought relief was more obvious in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang. The strong influences of increased P on drought relief and the weak influences of increased T min, T ave, and T max on drought aggravation were shown by comparing four drought indices under different climate scenarios. Decreased U 2 had a weak influence on drought, as shown by the AI in different climate scenarios. The weak influences of T and U 2 were considered to be masked by the strong influences of P on droughts. Droughts were expected to be more severe if P did not increase, but were likely milder without an increase in air temperature and with a decrease in U 2.

  7. Major shifts in societal trends and their impact on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slob, A.F.L.; Van Hoorn, Th.M.M. [TNO Institute of Strategy, Technology and Policy STB, Delft (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The main objective of the study on the title subject was to give direction to future research on this topic for the National Research Program (NRP). Several methods were used to achieve this goat: literature study, interviews with experts, researchers, policymakers and involved parties and a concluding workshop on the subject. The. conclusion of the study was that four main trends in our society have a relationship, either positive or negative, with the climate problem: individualisation, ageing of the population, globalisation and the rapid development of information and communication technologies. Options to change or break trends can be found in technological innovations, changes in institutions and changes in human behaviour. Several recommendations were made for future research in the framework of the Dutch NRP. This research should focus on trends as such, on behaviour and on policy strategies for coping with trends and shifts in trends. The following research topics were recommended to the Steering Group for further study: a general study on trends, trendbreaks and climate change; development of information and communication technologies as a driver of trendbreaks; interaction between technology and behaviour; time spending, trendbreaks and the climate problem; globalization; new policy methods and strategies aiming at trendbreaks. refs.

  8. Effects of a warming trend on cool climate viticulture in Michigan, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultze, Steven R; Sabbatini, Paolo; Luo, Lifeng

    2016-01-01

    Historically, Michigan's climate had mainly three challenges for grape production: growing season temperatures were too low, the growing season was too short and there was too much rain near harvest. However, climate change in the past decades has led to a vastly different landscape that is evolving to meet the new climate. Recently, there has been a significant move from Vitis labrusca (North American) grape plantings to Vitis vinifera (wine grapes) as a consequence of Michigan's shifting climate. The goal of this study was to analyze the historical shift in climate and its potential future impact on the grape industry. We obtained data climate model projection data from two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. First, a multi-linear regression model was built to predict future grape yields (t/ac) using data from the climate model projections. Second, trends in the severity of the three challenges (temperature, season length, precipitation timing) were analyzed. In both GHG scenarios grape yields are seen to improve, but to different extents. The improvement is likely a response to warmer season temperatures canceling out losses to early season frost. Model projections recommend that Michigan's future climate will be more accommodating for all varieties of grapes. This suggests that grape production will continue to grow, but the landscape will continue to evolve with more emphasis on varieties that are more climatically sensitive to cold temperatures. Climate change has greatly affected Michigan's viticultural landscape, and will continue to do so in the coming decades.

  9. Recent glacier retreat and climate trends in Cordillera Huaytapallana, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Moreno, J. I.; Fontaneda, S.; Bazo, J.; Revuelto, J.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Morán-Tejeda, E.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Zubieta, R.; Alejo-Cochachín, J.

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed 19 annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1984 to 2011 to determine changes of the glaciated surface and snow line elevation in six mountain areas of the Cordillera Huaytapallana range in Peru. In contrast to other Peruvian mountains, glacier retreat in these mountains has been poorly documented, even though this is a heavily glaciated area. These glaciers are the main source of water for the surrounding lowlands, and melting of these glaciers has triggered several outburst floods. During the 28-year study period, there was a 55% decrease in the surface covered by glaciers and the snowline moved upward in different regions by 93 to 157 m. Moreover, several new lakes formed in the recently deglaciated areas. There was an increase in precipitation during the wet season (October-April) over the 28-year study period. The significant increase in maximum temperatures may be related to the significant glacier retreat in the study area. There were significant differences in the wet season temperatures during El Niño (warmer) and La Niña (colder) years. Although La Niña years were generally more humid than El Niño years, these differences were not statistically significant. Thus, glaciers tended to retreat at a high rate during El Niño years, but tended to be stable or increase during La Niña years, although there were some notable deviations from this general pattern. Climate simulations for 2021 to 2050, based on the most optimistic assumptions of greenhouse gas concentrations, forecast a continuation of climate warming at the same rate as documented here. Such changes in temperature might lead to a critical situation for the glaciers of the Cordillera Huaytapallana, and may significantly impact the water resources, ecology, and natural hazards of the surrounding areas.

  10. Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

    2015-12-01

    Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

  11. Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, H.; Lawrence, D.; Lang, M.; Martinkova, M.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a review of trend analysis of extreme precipitation and hydrological floods in Europe based on observations and future climate projections. The review summaries methods and methodologies applied and key findings from a large number of studies. Reported analyses of observed extreme precipitation and flood records show that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant trends at large-scale regional or national level of extreme streamflow. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows, likely caused by increasing temperature. The review of likely future changes based on climate projections indicates a general increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trends. Hydrological projections of peak flows show large impacts in many areas with both positive and negative changes. A general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are projected for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows, which is consistent with the observed trends. Finally, existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation are reviewed. The review shows that only few countries have developed guidelines that incorporate a consideration of climate change impacts.

  12. Preliminary study on the spore-pollen assemblages found in the Cenozoic sedimentary rocks in Grove Mountains, east Antarctica and its climatic implications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fang Aimin; Liu Xiaohan; Wang Weiming; Li Xiaoli; Yu Liangjun; Huang Feixin

    2005-01-01

    Glaciogene sedimentary rocks have been found in modem tills of the Grove Mountains, east Antarctica during the 1998 - 1999 Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHNARE). Based on the lithilogic and sedimentary features,these sedimentary rocks are correlated with Cenozoic sedimentary strata of the Pagodroma Group in the neighboring Prince Charles Mountains and the Sorsdal Formation in VestFold Hills. Sedimentary clasts contain sparsely Late Tertiary spores and pollens, including: Toroisporis (Lygodiaceae), Osmunda , Granulatisporites (Pteridaceae?), Polypodiaceae, Podocarpus, Araucariaceae, Artemisia, Rhus, Nothofagidites,Proteacidites ( Proteaceae ) , Quercus , Fraxinoipollenites (Oleaceae) , Oleoidearumpollenites(Oleaceae), Operculumpollis, and Tricolpopollenites. Most of the pollen and spores contained in these samples originate from local sources according to the conditions of their preservations as well as correlations with the microfossil assemblages found in the neighboring areas. The majority of the pollen assemblages, as represented by Podocarpus and Nothofagus, belong to the Weddellian biogeocenose, however some exotic components from the old sedimentary basement rocks may have been included during erosion of the proximal ice sheet. If the source areas of glaciogenic sedimentary rocks that bear the pollen and spores are assumed to be local, or in the up glacier areas, the pollen assemblages in these samples might represent an inland flora during a warmer period of the ice-sheet evolutionary history. The finding of the Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae in the pollen assemblages implies that they may belong to late Tertiary (most probably Pliocene). The absence of diatoms in the samples analyzed may indicate that there are no Cenozoic marine strata in the interior of the east Antarctica beyond the Grove Mountains. The significances of the finding of the Nothofagus in these pollen assemblages are discussed on the basis of current knowledge about the age

  13. Cenozoic seawater Sr/Ca evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosdian, Sindia M.; Lear, Caroline H.; Tao, Kai; Grossman, Ethan L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Rosenthal, Yair

    2012-10-01

    Records of seawater chemistry help constrain temporal variations in geochemical processes that impact the global carbon cycle and climate through Earth's history. Here we reconstruct Cenozoic seawater Sr/Ca (Sr/Casw) using fossil Conus and turritellid gastropod Sr/Ca. Combined with an oxygen isotope paleotemperature record from the same samples, the gastropod record suggests that Sr/Caswwas slightly higher in the Eocene (˜11.4 ± 3 mmol/mol) than today (˜8.54 mmol/mol) and remained relatively stable from the mid- to late Cenozoic. We compare our gastropod Cenozoic Sr/Casw record with a published turritellid gastropod Sr/Casw record and other published biogenic (benthic foraminifera, fossil fish teeth) and inorganic precipitate (calcite veins) Sr/Caswrecords. Once the uncertainties with our gastropod-derived Sr/Casw are taken into account the Sr/Casw record agrees reasonably well with biogenic Sr/Caswrecords. Assuming a seawater [Ca] history derived from marine evaporite inclusions, all biogenic-based Sr/Casw reconstructions imply decreasing seawater [Sr] through the Cenozoic, whereas the calcite vein Sr/Casw reconstruction implies increasing [Sr] through the Cenozoic. We apply a simple geochemical model to examine the implications of divergence among these seawater [Sr] reconstructions and suggest that the interpretation and uncertainties associated with the gastropod and calcite vein proxies need to be revisited. Used in conjunction with records of carbonate depositional fluxes, our favored seawater Sr/Ca scenarios point to a significant increase in the proportion of aragonite versus calcite deposition in shelf sediments from the Middle Miocene, coincident with the proliferation of coral reefs. We propose that this occurred at least 10 million years after the seawater Mg/Ca threshold was passed, and was instead aided by declining levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  14. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  15. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.;

    2016-01-01

    representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

  16. Potential trends in snowmelt-generated peak streamflows in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui; Kumar, Mukesh; Link, Timothy E.

    2016-05-01

    Previously reported impacts of climate warming on streamflow peaks are varied, and the controls on the variations remain unclear. Using physically based linked snowpack and watershed hydrological models, we evaluated the potential changes in seasonal snowmelt-generated streamflow peak (Qmax) due to warming in a small semiarid mountain watershed. Results suggest that the trend in Qmax with warming is strongly governed by the conversion of precipitation phase, accumulated snow amount prior to the melt season, and snowmelt rate during the ablation period. Under a warming climate, the trend in Qmax is expected to be decreasing for relatively warm regions but increasing for cold regions. Climate regimes that are most susceptible to dominant precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain are likely to experience larger decreases in Qmax with warming. This study serves as a first step toward assessing the varied impacts on Qmax due to warming vis-a-vis the specific catchment hydroclimatology.

  17. Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato; Janicot, Serge; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-12-01

    The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25-100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics).

  18. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

    2015-05-01

    The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970.

  19. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus basin

    CERN Document Server

    Hasson, Shabeh ul; Lucarini, Valerio

    2015-01-01

    We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m asl) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961-2012). We apply Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen s slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July-October (March-May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961-2012). We also find ... The observed...

  20. Genetic and phenotypic trends of fertility traits for Holstein dairy population in warm and temperate climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabie Rahbar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to investigate genetic and phenotypic trends for fertility traits in Holstein dairy population under warm and temperate climate. Fertility traits were: success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open. The edited data set included up to 23,402 records from 9,486 cows. The mean and standard deviation for fertility traits were 0.32 ± 0.003, 278.2 ± 5.58, 2.73 ± 1.94,0.31 ± 0.001, 415.99 ± 79.62, 40.4 ± 6.08 and 140.36 ± 76.16 for success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open, respectively. In general, there were decreasing genetic trends for all traits over the years. On the other hand, there were decreasing phenotypic trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight, but estimates of phenotypic trends were positive for success in first service and insemination outcome over the years. It was concluded decreased trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight and increased trend for success in first service and insemination outcome traits over time indicated that Holstein dairy producers in warm and temperate climate were successful in managing and improving in nutrition during 1999 to 2013.

  1. Spatial variability of the trends in climatic variables across China during 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Hu, Qingfang; Lv, Huafang

    2015-05-01

    Distribution of meteorological stations is not uniform in many regions of the world, especially in developing countries like China. To eliminate the effect of uneven stations, this study produced a data set of areal average precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed from 736 meteorological station observations during 1961-2010 using an inverse-distance weighted technique. Based on the data set, this study detected the trends in climatic variables. Precipitation has a slight but no significant ( p = 0.78) trend for the whole of China and has a significant increase trend in northwest China. Surface air temperature has a significant ( p < 0.001) accelerating warming trend of 0.032 °C/a for the whole of China, and spatially larger in northern China than that in southern China. Solar radiation has a significant ( p < 0.001) dimming trend of -0.14 W/(m2 · a) for the whole of China, and the largest dimming trend appears in eastern China, the possible cause for which is a high-aerosol concentration. Surface wind speed has a significant ( p < 0.001) stilling trend of -0.012 m/(s·a) for the whole of China, the causes for which were speculated the changes in atmospheric circulation and surface roughness, as well as increases in aerosol concentration and the decrease in the south-north temperature gradient in China. In addition, three large-scale instrument replacements increase uncertainties of the trend analysis.

  2. How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; Damberg, Lisa; Phillips, Thomas J.; Miao, Chiyuan; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2015-04-01

    Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. Pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.

  3. 温盐环流反转及其对新生代气候的影响%TRANSITION OF THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION MODES AND ITS IMPACT ON CENOZOIC CLIMATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张仲石; 王会军; 郭正堂

    2009-01-01

    温盐环流是由海水温度、盐度差异驱动的全球洋流循环系统.在气候系统中,它对全球热量输送起到了十分重要的作用.在亚轨道尺度(千年时间尺度)上,温盐环流的改变导致了一系列快速的气候变化,因此备受关注.在构造时间尺度(百万年时间尺度)上,古海洋记录和数值模拟揭示出,温盐环流的反转对新生代气候也产生了非常显著的影响.在新生代,温盐环流由"南大洋深层水主控型"向"北大西洋深层水主控型"反转.这一反转改变了全球的热量输送,使得南半球强烈变冷,并有町能导致南极东部永久冰盖的形成.在这一反转事件中,热带海道的作用更加重要.%The thermohaline circulation(THC)is a large-scale ocean circulation driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. It plays an important role in the globale heat transport. Changes of the circulation have large impacts on the Earth climate. They cause a series of abrupt climate variations on the sub-orbital time scale, I. E., the millennial scale. Thus, the thermohaline circulation receives much concern. Here, based on paleoceanographic evidence and numeral modeling, we show that the thermohaline circulation also affect the climate markedly on the tectonic time scale,I, e., the million-year scale. In the Cenozoic,the thermohaline circulation reversed from the southern ocean deep water(SODW) dominated mode to the North Atlantic deep water(NADW) dominated mode,though the time of this reversal is still under debates. Some evidence reveals that the NADW formation was active during a period of the late Early Miocene and dominated ocean circulation after about 15Ma,while the earliest evidence of the NADW formation has been found in deep sea cores of the Early Oligocene age. The recent modeling study simulated the transition of thermohaline circulation from the SODW to the NADW dominated mode. The simulation indicates that the

  4. Evidence of Arid to Semi-arid Climate Near Western Pacific Warm Pool During Sea-Level Lowstands: Caliche Surfaces in Late Cenozoic Carbonates of Nansha Islands, South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, S.; Mii, H.; Horng, C.; Huang, F.; Chi, W.; Yui, T.; Torng, P.; Huang, S.; Wang, S.; Wu, J.; Yang, K.

    2003-12-01

    Whether the climate of tropical seas during glacial periods became cold and dry has been an open debate. Models by different authors proposed the tropical sea-surface temperature (SST) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to be about 2\\deg lower, or 5-6\\deg lower than present. The controversy partly arise from disparate reconstructions of temperature from stable oxygen isotope archives of marine sediments. In this paper, we provide field evidence of semi-arid or arid climate during late Cenozoic sea-level lowstands from an atoll located in central South China Sea near the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Lower rainfall and higher evaporation associated with the dry conditions might have resulted in less meteoric water component in the surface sea-water, and this factor should be taken into considerations in deciphering temperature from isotopic records. Taiping Islet (Itu Aba), located at N10\\deg 23' and E114\\deg 22' is part of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands near the northwestern margin of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Rock cores of a borehole at Taiping became accessible to the authors in the recent years. We identified at least four subaerial exposure surfaces (SES) in the late Cenozoic carbonates. Caliche deposits are recognized on each of the four surfaces on the basis of alveolar texture, micro-rhizolith, caliche glaebules and corroded limestone nodules in reddish matrix (terra-rossa). Caliche developed on limestones typically forms in semi-arid to arid areas with annual precipitation from about 500 to 1000mm, while the modern annual rainfall of Nansha Island is 1800-2100mm. The occurrence of the Nansha caliche suggests the climate was much drier than present during the sea-level lowstands represented by the four SES. During the sea-level falls, reduced surface area of South China Sea with continental shelves exposed might have resulted in less moistures in the atmosphere and therefore less precipitation and higher evaporation rates. As a result, the

  5. Did high Neo-Tethys subduction rates contribute to early Cenozoic warming?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoareau, G.; Bomou, B.; Van Hinsbergen, D. J J; Carry, N.; Marquer, D.; Donnadieu, Y.; Le Hir, G.; Vrielynck, B.; Walter-Simonnet, A. V.

    2015-01-01

    The 58-51 Ma interval was characterized by a long-term increase of global temperatures (+4 to +6°C) up to the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, 52.9-50.7 Ma), the warmest interval of the Cenozoic. It was recently suggested that sustained high atmospheric pCO2, controlling warm early Cenozoic clima

  6. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessia Uboni

    Full Text Available Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species

  7. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  8. CENOZOIC CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT CHANGE WITH EVOLUTION OF MAMMALIAN FAUNAS IN GANSU PROVINCE%甘肃新生代气候环境变化与哺乳动物群演替

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    颉光普; 赵得思

    2011-01-01

    甘肃省境内新生代沉积中富含动物化石,以早渐新世晚期、晚渐新世、早中新世早期、中中新世晚期、晚中新世、早更新世和晚更新世的哺乳动物化石最为丰富.新生代青藏高原形成、快速隆升,改变了东亚的大气环流和中国的地理格局,使甘肃的气候和地理面貌发生了巨变.甘肃省境内的哺乳动物群在这些变化背景下发生了一次次的更替.本文通过对不同时代的动物群所代表的生态特征分析和结合沉积物佐证,推测了甘肃新生代的气候环境演变过程:古新世-早渐新世早期,海拔不高,气候炎热干燥,呈沙漠或干旱的荒漠环境;早渐新世晚期-早中新世早期为半干旱半暖湿气候下的森林环境,间有开阔的草原地带;中中新世晚期森林更加茂密,水体丰富,冬季风开始逐渐形成并不断发展;晚中新世为炎热半干旱的稀树草原环境,古冬季风盛行;上新世时变得越来越干冷;第四纪开始,青藏高原的抬升活动愈发剧烈,甘肃的海拔高度越来越高,从早期的干冷到中间的短期暖湿反复变化,生物和地貌也随之巨变,适应干冷气候和荒漠草原环境的哺乳动物兴起.晚更新世时甘肃北部以干燥寒冷的草原为主,夹有大面积森林草原或荒漠草原,但此期间气候有波动,出现过温湿气候;南部有茂密的森林,气候暖湿.晚更新世末,气候环境、地理和生物面貌已与现代相似.%Cenozoic sediments in Cansu Province contain abundant fossils, especially fossil mammals in Early to Late Oligocene,Early through Late Miocene,and Early through Late Pleistocene. The formation of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its rapid uplift in the Cenozoic altered atmospheric circulations in East Asia and geographic layout in China. Such changes also profoundly affect the climates and topography of the province. Mammalian faunas in Cansu Province have undergone repeated turnovers under

  9. Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May and winter (November to January, during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model

  10. Cenozoic stratigraphy of the Sahara, Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swezey, Christopher S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the Cenozoic stratigraphic record in the Sahara, and shows that the strata display some remarkably similar characteristics across much of the region. In fact, some lithologies of certain ages are exceptionally widespread and persistent, and many of the changes from one lithology to another appear to have been relatively synchronous across the Sahara. The general stratigraphic succession is that of a transition from early Cenozoic carbonate strata to late Cenozoic siliciclastic strata. This transition in lithology coincides with a long-term eustatic fall in sea level since the middle Cretaceous and with a global climate transition from a Late Cretaceous–Early Eocene “warm mode” to a Late Eocene–Quaternary “cool mode”. Much of the shorter-term stratigraphic variability in the Sahara (and even the regional unconformities) also can be correlated with specific changes in sea level, climate, and tectonic activity during the Cenozoic. Specifically, Paleocene and Eocene carbonate strata and phosphate are suggestive of a warm and humid climate, whereas latest Eocene evaporitic strata (and an end-Eocene regional unconformity) are correlated with a eustatic fall in sea level, the build-up of ice in Antarctica, and the appearance of relatively arid climates in the Sahara. The absence of Oligocene strata throughout much of the Sahara is attributed to the effects of generally low eustatic sea level during the Oligocene and tectonic uplift in certain areas during the Late Eocene and Oligocene. Miocene sandstone and conglomerate are attributed to the effects of continued tectonic uplift around the Sahara, generally low eustatic sea level, and enough rainfall to support the development of extensive fluvial systems. Middle–Upper Miocene carbonate strata accumulated in northern Libya in response to a eustatic rise in sea level, whereas Upper Miocene mudstone accumulated along the south side of the Atlas Mountains because uplift of the

  11. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  12. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  13. Climate-influenced ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed masting trends in western Montana, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher R. Keyes; Rubén Manso González

    2015-01-01

    Aim of study: The aim of this study was to analyze 10-year records of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed production, in order to confirm synchronic seed production and to evaluate cyclical masting trends, masting depletion effect, and climate-masting relationships. Area of study: The study area was located in a P. ponderosa stand in the northern Rocky Mountains (western Montana, USA). Material and methods: The study was conducted in one stand that had been subjected to a silvicul...

  14. Management and Climate Controls on Fire Trends in the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, H.; McCarty, J. L.; Wang, D.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Randerson, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by forest fires in both scale and in the resources invested for management. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of satellite observations of active fires as a function of management type in the continental U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity Database (MTBS) to identify the location of large wildland fires and the MODIS Land Cover Type Product (MCD12Q1) to identify agricultural burning in croplands. A third class of fires, defined as prescribed or other fires included all residual fires not attributed to wildland or cropland fire types. Wildland fires dominated the interannual variation for U.S. active fires; however, there were no significant trends by region over the last decade. Agricultural and other/prescribed fires were responsible for 70% of total active fires, 50% of which were in the south and southeastern United States where contributions from wildland fires was relatively small. In the west, agricultural fires had a decreasing trend at a rate of 6% per year, mainly during the harvest season of October. Except for the west, prescribed fires were in-phase with agricultural fires on both seasonal and interannual timescales, possibly reflecting the similar management strategies. We also performed correlation analysis between fires and potential evapotranspiration (PE) to examine how climate controls varied by fire type. While climate is the dominant factor for wildland fires, agricultural and other non-wildland fires show no direct relationship to PE. Our result suggests that by targeting agricultural and prescribed fire management, there is potential to significantly reduce landscape fire emissions within the U.S., despite expected changes in climate over the next several decades. The trends (p < 0.01) in annual active fire detections across the

  15. Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Piani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon, to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.

  16. Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, F.

    2015-12-01

    The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management

  17. Climatic modulation of recent trends in ocean acidification in the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, G.; Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Münnich, M.

    2016-01-01

    We reconstruct the evolution of ocean acidification in the California Current System (CalCS) from 1979 through 2012 using hindcast simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean biogeochemical model forced with observation-based variations of wind and fluxes of heat and freshwater. We find that domain-wide pH and {{{Ω }}}{arag} in the top 60 m of the water column decreased significantly over these three decades by about -0.02 decade-1 and -0.12 decade-1, respectively. In the nearshore areas of northern California and Oregon, ocean acidification is reconstructed to have progressed much more rapidly, with rates up to 30% higher than the domain-wide trends. Furthermore, ocean acidification penetrated substantially into the thermocline, causing a significant domain-wide shoaling of the aragonite saturation depth of on average -33 m decade-1 and up to -50 m decade-1 in the nearshore area of northern California. This resulted in a coast-wide increase in nearly undersaturated waters and the appearance of waters with {{{Ω }}}{arag}\\lt 1, leading to a substantial reduction of habitat suitability. Averaged over the whole domain, the main driver of these trends is the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere. However, recent changes in the climatic forcing have substantially modulated these trends regionally. This is particularly evident in the nearshore regions, where the total trends in pH are up to 50% larger and trends in {{{Ω }}}{arag} and in the aragonite saturation depth are even twice to three times larger than the purely atmospheric CO2-driven trends. This modulation in the nearshore regions is a result of the recent marked increase in alongshore wind stress, which brought elevated levels of dissolved inorganic carbon to the surface via upwelling. Our results demonstrate that changes in the climatic forcing need to be taken into consideration in future projections of the progression of ocean acidification in coastal upwelling regions.

  18. New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalto, Juha; Pirinen, Pentti; Jylhä, Kirsti

    2016-04-01

    Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI_ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961-2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades.

  19. Foraminifera in Cenozoic Paleoenvironments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Brian McGowran

    2005-01-01

    Paleontologists search the fossil record for evidence of age, ancient environments, phylogenetic reconstructions and ancient communities. Cenozoic foraminifera preserve evidence for all of these simultaneously from the water column and from at, above and below the sediment/water interface. As our understanding of foraminiferal assemblages and their place in the strata (biofacies) becomes more sophisticated, so are foraminiferal biofacies challenged to contribute to more subtle problems in Cenozoic earth and life history. Progress is described as a series of five "integrations". (Ⅰ) The quantification of foraminiferal biofacies was an advance on simple presences and absences of species meeting such questions as marine or nonmarine, or shallow or deep. (Ⅱ) Foraminiferal shells carry geochemical signals especially isotopes of oxygen (temperature, ice volume), carbon (nutrition and the carbon cycle), and strontium (seawater ratios through time). (Ⅲ) From modern foraminiferal biology we have lifestyle insights leading to a model of oceans and paleo-oceans called the trophic resource continuum, a valuable way into greenhouse-icehouse comparisons and contrasts. (Ⅳ) Biofacies changes in space and time are sometimes abrupt with little evidence of diachrony, and sometimes gradual. These patterns are clarified in the context of sequence stratigraphy (which they enrich in turn). (Ⅴ) The paleobiological counterpart of sequence stratigraphy is evolutionary paleoecology, reconstructing communities in deep time. The foraminifera are perfectly suited to investigate the possibility (or likelihood) that global environmental shifts have controlled community turnover in the pelagic, neritic and terrestrial realms.

  20. Cenozoic macroevolution in the deep-sea microfossil record: can we let go of species richness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannisdal, Bjarte; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2014-05-01

    The deep-sea microfossil record is an outstanding resource for the study of macroevolutionary changes in planktonic groups. Studies of plankton evolution and its possible link to climate changes over the Cenozoic have typically targeted apparent trends in species richness. However, most species are rare, and fossil richness is particularly vulnerable to the imperfections (incompleteness, reworking, age and taxonomic errors) of existing microfossil occurrence databases. Here we use an alternative macroevolutionary quantity: Summed Common Species Occurrence Rate (SCOR). By focusing on the most commonly occurring species, SCOR is decoupled from species richness, robust to preservation/sampling variability, yet sensitive to relative changes in the overall abundance of a group. Numerical experiments are used to illustrate the sampling behavior of SCOR and its relationship to (sampling-standardized) species richness. We further show how SCOR estimated from the NEPTUNE database (ODP/DSDP) can provide a new perspective on long-term evolutionary and ecological changes in major planktonic groups (e.g. coccolithophores and forams). Finally, we test possible linkages between planktonic SCOR records and proxy reconstructions of climate changes over the Cenozoic.

  1. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kukarenko Natalia

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective: To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Results: Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Conclusion: Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both

  2. Cenozoic uplift and subsidence in the North Atlantic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Ingrid Anna Margareta; Thybo, Hans; Artemieva, Irina

    2009-01-01

    , time and amplitude (where possible) of topographic changes in the North Atlantic region during the Cenozoic (65-0 Ma). Our compilation is based on published results from reflection seismic studies, AFT (apatite fission track) studies, VR (vitrinite reflectance) trends, maximum burial, sediment supply...

  3. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  4. The Drivers of Climate Change -- Tracking Global Greenhouse Gas Trends and their Warming Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J. H.; Tans, P. P.; Montzka, S. A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hall, B. D.; Masarie, K. A.; Elkins, J. W.; Dutton, G. S.; Miller, B. R.

    2014-12-01

    Of the National Physical Climate Indicators, two stand out as primary drivers of climate change - the Global Monthly Average of Carbon Dioxide Concentration and the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index. Both of these are products of high quality, long-term, globally distributed monitoring of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. To support monitoring of the trends of these gases over decades, NOAA maintains the WMO World Calibration Scales for the major contributors to radiative forcing and its own universally accepted scales for most of the minor greenhouse gases. Maintenance of these scales over time ensures the consistency of measurements from decade to decade. Further quality control through use of internal and external comparisons of on-going measurements places tight constraints on spatial and temporal bias. By far the most influential greenhouse gas contributing to radiative forcing is carbon dioxide (CO2). Its amount at Mauna Loa is reported on-line daily and its global trend updated monthly on NOAA's global monitoring website and at climate.gov. This is one of the most closely watched records of atmospheric composition, as its accelerating rate of increase is a constant reminder that society has yet to deal successfully with its emissions of this gas. Much of CO2 emitted remains in the atmosphere for 1000s of years, which is why it is of substantial concern. But atmospheric CO2 is not alone in warming the planet and driving climate change. Many other gases contribute in a lesser way to this long-term trend and are captured along with CO2 in NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). The AGGI is a normalized compilation of the radiative forcing (RF) of five major long-lived greenhouse gases (96% of RF) and 15 minor gases (4% of RF). Because it does not include short lived gases (living in. This presentation discusses the development of these two indexes and their national and global use.

  5. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Global NDVI Trends: Correlations with Climate and Human Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    LIU, Y.; Li, S.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: Changes in vegetation activity are driven by multiple natural and anthropogenic factors, which can be reflected by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from satellite. In this paper, NDVI trends from 1982 to 2012 are first estimated by the Theil-Sen median slope method to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. Then the impact of climate variables and human activity on the observed NDVI trends is analyzed. Our results show on average NDVI increased by 0.46×10-3 per year from 1982 to 2012 globally with decadal variations. For most regions of the world, a greening (increasing) - browning(decreasing) - greening (G-B-G) trend is observed over the periods 1982-2004, 1995-2004, and 2005-2012, respectively. A positive partial correlation of NDVI and temperature is observed in the first period but it decreases and occasionally becomes negative in the following periods, especially in the Humid Temperate and Dry Domain Regions. This suggests a weakened effect of temperature on vegetation growth. Precipitation, on the other hand, is found to have a positive impact on the NDVI trend. This effect becomes stronger in the third period of 1995-2004, especially in the Dry Domain Region. Anthropogenic effects and human activities, derived here from the Human Footprint Dataset and the associated Human Influence Index (HII), have varied impacts on the magnitude (absolute value) of the NDVI trends across continents. Significant positive effects are found in Asia, Africa, and Europe, suggesting that intensive human activity could accelerate the change in NDVI and vegetation. A more accurate attribution of vegetation change to specific climatic and anthropogenic factors is instrumental to understand vegetation dynamics and requires further research.

  6. Recent Trends in the Ebro River Basin: Is It All "Just" Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Stefanie; Merz, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    Water resources are under pressure from a variety of stressors such as industry, agriculture, water abstraction or pollution. Changing climate can potentially enhance the impact of these stressors, especially under water scarcity conditions. The aim of the GLOBAQUA project ("Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity") is, therefore, to analyze the combined effect of multiple stressors in the context of increasing water scarcity. As part of the GLOBAQUA project, this study examines recent trends in climate, water quantity and quality parameters in the Ebro River Basin in Northern Spain to identify stressors and determine their joint impact on water resources. Mann-Kendall trend analyses of temperature, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, streamwater and groundwater quality data (spanning between 15 and 40 years) were performed. Moreover, anthropogenic pressures such as land use and alteration of natural flow by reservoirs were considered. Climate data indicate increasing temperatures in the Ebro River Basin especially in summer and autumn, and decreasing precipitation particularly in summer. In contrast, precipitation mostly shows upwards trends in autumn, but these are counterbalanced by greater evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Overall, this results in annual and seasonal streamflow decreases at the majority of gauging stations. Declining trends in streamflow are most pronounced during summer and are also observed in subbasins without reservoirs. Diminishing water resources become also apparent in generally decreasing groundwater levels in the Ebro River Basin. This decrease is most pronounced in areas where groundwater serves as main origin for irrigation water, which demonstrates how land use acts as a local rather than regional driver of change. Increasing air temperatures correlate with increasing water temperatures over the past 30 years, which indicates the effect of changing climate on water

  7. Long-Term Trend of Climate Change and Drought Assessment in the Horn of Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihretab G. Ghebrezgabher

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change due to global warming is a world concern, particularly in Africa. In this study, precipitation and temperature variables are taken as a proxy to assess and quantify the long-term climate change and drought in the Horn of Africa (HOA (1930–2014. We adapted a simple linear regression and interpolation to analyze, respectively, the trend and spatial distribution of the mean annual precipitation and temperature. In addition, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI was applied to evaluate the drought condition of the HOA. The results revealed that statistically the trend of precipitation decreased insignificantly; the trend of temperature was observed to drop very significantly between 1930 and 1969, but it was dramatically elevated very significantly from 1970 to 2014. The SPEI showed that the HOA experienced from mild to moderate drought throughout the study period with severe to extreme drought in some regions, particularly in 1943, 1984, 1991, and 2009. The drought was a very serious environmental problem in the HOA in the last 85 years. Thus, an immediate action is required to tackle drought and hence poverty and famine in the HOA.

  8. Predicting ecological changes on benthic estuarine assemblages through decadal climate trends along Brazilian Marine Ecoregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardino, Angelo F.; Netto, Sérgio A.; Pagliosa, Paulo R.; Barros, Francisco; Christofoletti, Ronaldo A.; Rosa Filho, José S.; Colling, André; Lana, Paulo C.

    2015-12-01

    Estuaries are threatened coastal ecosystems that support relevant ecological functions worldwide. The predicted global climate changes demand actions to understand, anticipate and avoid further damage to estuarine habitats. In this study we reviewed data on polychaete assemblages, as a surrogate for overall benthic communities, from 51 estuaries along five Marine Ecoregions of Brazil (Amazonia, NE Brazil, E Brazil, SE Brazil and Rio Grande). We critically evaluated the adaptive capacity and ultimately the resilience to decadal changes in temperature and rainfall of the polychaete assemblages. As a support for theoretical predictions on changes linked to global warming we compared the variability of benthic assemblages across the ecoregions with a 40-year time series of temperature and rainfall data. We found a significant upward trend in temperature during the last four decades at all marine ecoregions of Brazil, while rainfall increase was restricted to the SE Brazil ecoregion. Benthic assemblages and climate trends varied significantly among and within ecoregions. The high variability in climate patterns in estuaries within the same ecoregion may lead to correspondingly high levels of noise on the expected responses of benthic fauna. Nonetheless, we expect changes in community structure and productivity of benthic species at marine ecoregions under increasing influence of higher temperatures, extreme events and pollution.

  9. Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range in West Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peregon, Anna; Uchida, Masao; Shibata, Yasuyuki

    2007-10-01

    A region of western Siberia is vulnerable to the predicted climatic change which may induce an important modification to the carbon balance in wetland ecosystems. This study focuses on the evaluation of both the long-term and contemporary trends of peat (carbon) accumulation and its patterns at the southern climatic range of Sphagnum peatlands in western Siberia. Visible and physical features of peat and detailed reconstructions of successional change (or sediment stratigraphies) were analysed at two types of forest peatland ecotones, which are situated close to each other but differ by topography and composition of their plant communities. Our results suggest that Siberian peatlands exhibit a general trend towards being a carbon sink rather than a source even at or near the southern limit of their distribution. Furthermore, two types of peat accumulation were detected in the study area, namely persistent and intermittent. As opposed to persistent peat accumulation, the intermittent one is characterized by the recurrent degradation of the upper peat layers at the marginal parts of raised bogs. Persistent peat accumulation is the case for the majority of Sphagnum peatlands under current climatic conditions. It might be assumed that more peat will accumulate under the 'increased precipitation' scenarios of global warming, although intermittent peat accumulation could result in the eventual drying that may change peatlands from carbon sinks to carbon sources.

  10. Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reiner Wassmann

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a combined empirical/modeling approach to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. We collated climate data of the last two decades (1985-2002 as well as yield statistics of six provinces of the Philippines, selected along a North-South gradient. Data from the climate information system of NASA were used as input parameters of the model ORYZA2000 to determine potential yields and, in the next steps, the yield gaps defined as the difference between potential and actual yields. Both simulated and actual yields of irrigated rice varied strongly between years. However, no climate-driven trends were apparent and the variability in actual yields showed no correlation with climatic parameters. The observed variation in simulated yields was attributable to seasonal variations in climate (dry/wet season and to climatic differences between provinces and agro-ecological zones. The actual yield variation between provinces was not related to differences in the climatic yield potential but rather to soil and management factors. The resulting yield gap was largest in remote and infrastructurally disfavored provinces (low external input use with a high production potential (high solar radiation and day-night temperature differences. In turn, the yield gap was lowest in central provinces with good market access but with a relatively low climatic yield potential. We conclude that neither long-term trends nor the variability of the climate can explain current rice yield trends and that agroecological, seasonal, and management effects are over-riding any possible climatic variations. On the other hand the lack of a climate-driven trend in the present situation may be superseded by ongoing climate change in the future.

  11. Future trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, M. R.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2016-06-01

    In a previous study Pons et al. (Clim Res 54(3):197-207, 2010. doi: 10.3354/cr01117g) reported a significant decreasing trend of snowfall occurrence in the Northern Iberian Peninsula since the mid 70s. The study was based on observations of annual snowfall frequency (measured as the annual number of snowfall days NSD) from a network of 33 stations ranging from 60 to 1350 m. In the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961-2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCM-driven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (-2.2 days/decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from -3.4 to -0.7, -2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from -8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (-1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011-2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from -3.7 to -0.5 days/decade (-2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (-0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.

  12. European Cenozoic rift system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Peter A.

    1992-07-01

    The European Cenozoic rift system extends from the coast of the North Sea to the Mediterranean over a distance of some 1100 km; it finds its southern prolongation in the Valencia Trough and a Plio-Pleistocene volcanic chain crossing the Atlas ranges. Development of this mega-rift was paralleled by orogenic activity in the Alps and Pyrenees. Major rift domes, accompanied by subsidence reversal of their axial grabens, developed 20-40 Ma after beginning of rifting. Uplift of the Rhenish Shield is related to progressive thermal lithospheric thinning; the Vosges-Black Forest and the Massif Central domes are probably underlain by asthenoliths emplaced at the crust/mantle boundary. Evolution of this rift system, is thought to be governed by the interaction of the Eurasian and African plates and by early phases of a plate-boundary reorganization that may lead to the break-up of the present continent assembly.

  13. 75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-27

    ... Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session August 18-19, and... Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Notice...

  14. The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstra, N.; New, M.; McSweeney, C.

    2010-01-01

    We study the influence of station network density on the distributions and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate Model evaluation

  15. Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

  16. A synthesis of Cenozoic sedimentation in the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Ingrid Anna Margareta; Thybo, Hans; Rasmussen, E.S.

    2012-01-01

    margins have undergone. While the North Sea has been mapped locally, we present the first regional mapping of the Cenozoic sedimentary strata. Our study provides a new regional sub-division of the main seismic units in the North Sea together with maps of depocentres, influx direction and source areas. Our......The North Sea Basin contains an almost complete record of Cenozoic sedimentation, separated by clear regional unconformities. The changes in sediment characteristics, rate and source, and expression of the unconformities reflect the tectonic, eustatic and climatic changes that the North Sea and its...... characteristics of many unconformities indicate that they were generated by eustatic sea-level fall, often in conjunction with other processes. Early Cenozoic unconformities, however, relate to tectonism associated with the opening of the North Atlantic. From observation on a regional scale, we infer...

  17. Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

    2013-10-01

    Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

  18. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  19. Trends in the mortality effects of hot spells in central Europe: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Europe has recently been affected by several long-lasting and severe heat waves, particularly in July-August 2003 (western Europe), June-July 2006 (central Europe), July 2007 (southeastern Europe) and July 2010 (western Russia). The heat waves influenced many sectors of human activities, with enormous socio-economic and environmental impacts. With estimated death tolls exceeding 50,000, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves were the worst natural disasters in Europe over the last 50 years, yielding an example of how seriously may also high-income societies be affected by climate change. The present study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (around 10 million inhabitants, central Europe). Declining trends in the mortality impacts since 1986 are found, in spite of rising temperature trends. The findings remain unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account, and they are similar for all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability in the examined population (Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012). The results are also consistent with those reported for other developed regions of the world (the US, western Europe, Australia) and suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address

  20. Alaska tundra vegetation trends and their links to the large-scale climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieniek, P. A.; Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Comiso, J. C.

    2011-12-01

    The arctic Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set (a measure of vegetation photosynthetic capacity) has been used to document coherent temporal relationships between near-coastal sea ice, summer tundra land surface temperatures, and vegetation productivity throughout the Arctic (Bhatt et al. 2010). Land warming over North America has displayed larger trends (+30%) when compared to Eurasia (+16%) since 1982. In the tundra of northern Alaska the greatest change was found in absolute maximum NDVI along the Beaufort Sea coast (+14%). In contrast, tundra areas in southwest Alaska along the Bering Sea have seen a decline (-4%). Greenup date in these regions has been occurring as much as 1-4 days earlier per decade, but trends are mixed. Winter snow water equivalent (SWE) has only increased slightly (+0.1 mm/yr) in the Arctic region of Alaska since 1987 (R. Muskett, personal communication). These findings suggest that there have been changes in the seasonal climate in Alaska during the NDVI record. The tundra trends are further investigated by evaluating remotely sensed sea ice, surface air temperature, SWE, daily snow cover, and NDVI3g. While the snow data has a relatively short record (1999-2010), notable trends can be observed in snow melt, occurring as much 15 days earlier per decade in northern Alaska. Unfortunately, other snow data sets have been found to be problematic and could not be used to extend our analysis. This highlights the need for a long-term pan-arctic snow data set that is suitable for climate analysis. Possible climate drivers are also investigated. Results show that the summer tundra, in terms of NDVI and summer warmth index (SWI), has few direct links with the large-scale climate. However, the sea ice concentration along the coast of the tundra regions has strong preseason links to the large-scale climate. This suggests that the large-scale climate influences the sea ice concentration which then affects the NDVI and SWI. Three tundra regions

  1. Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shanghai Mode Lingerie continually strives to underline its status as a veritable reference on the fashion scene: an opportunity to explore trends, interpret key directions and gain an in-depth overview of lines to follow.

  2. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Flousek

    Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  3. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  4. Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew

    2011-01-01

    The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed

  5. What drives flood trends along the Rhine River: climate or river training?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vorogushyn

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Rhine River catchment was heavily trained over the past decades and faced the construction of the Rhine weir cascade, flood protection dikes and detention basins. For the same time period, several studies detected positive trends in flood flows and faced the challenge of flood trend attribution, i.e. identifying the drivers of observed change. The presented study addresses the question about the responsible drivers for changes in annual maximum daily flows at Rhine gauges starting from Maxau down to Lobith. In particular, the role of river training measures including the Rhine weir cascade and a series of detention basins in enhancing Rhine floods was investigated. By applying homogenisation relationships to the original flow records in the period from 1952 till 2009, the annual maximum series were computed that would have been recorded had river training measures not been in place. Using multiple trend analysis, the relative changes in the homogenised time series were found to be smaller up to about 20% points compared to the original records. This effect is attributable to the river training measures and primarily to the construction of the Rhine weir cascade. The increase in Rhine flood discharges was partly caused by the unfavourable superposition of the Rhine and Neckar flood waves. It resulted from the acceleration of the Rhine waves due to construction of the weir cascade. However, at the same time, the tributary flows across the entire Upper and Lower Rhine, which enhance annual Rhine peaks, showed very strong positive trends. This suggests the dominance of a large-scale driver such as climate variability/change which acted along with river training. In particular, the analysis suggests that the river training measures fell in a period with increasing flood trends driven by factors other than river training of the Rhine main channel.

  6. Decadal stream water quality trends under varying climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in, Iowa, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher; Bekins, Barbara; Kalkhoff, Stephen; Hirsch, Robert; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee

    2015-04-01

    Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agricultural practices and climatic variations is important for improving water quality in agricultural settings. In the central United States, intensification of corn cropping in support of ethanol production led to increases in N application rates in the 2000s during a period including both extreme dry and wet conditions. To examine the effect of these recent changes, a study was conducted on surface water quality in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Long term (~20 to 30 years) water quality and flow data were analyzed with Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS), a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals decadal trends that are independent of random variations of stream flow from seasonal averages. Trends of surface water quality showed constant or decreasing flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low streamflow discharge in the 2000's and to the long (e.g. 8-year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of surface water nitrate and depletion of stored nitrate may occur in years with very high discharge. Limited transport of N to streams and accumulation of stored N may occur in years with very low discharge. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in concentrations, likely because extensive tile-drains limit the effective volumes for storage of N and reduce residence times, and because the glacial sediments in these basins promote denitrification. Changes in nitrogen fluxes resulting from ethanol production and other factors will likely be delayed for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central

  7. Historic Trends in U. S. Drought Forcing in a Warming Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Muschinski, T

    2014-01-01

    The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the frequency or severity of droughts. We define and study the statistics of an aridity index that describes the precipitation forcing function of a drought, considering drought to be a season with low enough precipitation to be significant for agriculture. Our aridity index is a reciprocal function of the seasonal precipitation, which is more significant for agriculture than mean precipitation. Using NOAA data from sites in 13 diverse climate regimes in the 48 contiguous United States with time series running over the period 1940--1999 but including two data series from 1900 or 1910, and computing their decadal averages, we search for linear trends in their aridity indices. We find no linear trends significant at the $2\\sigma$ level. At five sites $3\\sigma$ upper bounds on any sy...

  8. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paulo

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  9. Contrasted climatic trends in the Atlantic vs. Pacific gateways of the Arctic Ocean during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vernal, A.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; Rochon, A.

    2013-12-01

    The reconstruction of sea-surface conditions including sea ice cover was undertaken based on about 20 marine sediment cores collected in the Arctic Ocean and subarctic seas. The approach has been standardized and mostly relies on the modern analogue technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, which permit simultaneous estimates of sea ice cover, summer sea-surface temperature and salinity. The results show some regionalism in both trends, amplitude and overall variability. In general, changes of small amplitude are recorded in the Canadian Arctic whereas a slight cooling trend with an increasing sea ice cover characterizes the Northern Baffin Bay and Fram Strait areas from mid to late Holocene. In contrast, the Chukchi Sea records show large amplitude variations with millennial pacing making difficult to define any trend. The Chukchi Sea data indicate reduced sea ice and warmer conditions during the mid-Holocene, notably around 6.5 and 3.5 ka, and also point to important variations during the last millennium. The overall results suggest a higher variability thus sensitivity to climate change, in the Chukchi Sea area than in the Eastern parts of the Arctic and subarctic regions, which are largely influenced by northern branches of the North Atlantic Drift. The climate sensitivity of the Chukchi Sea area may be related to the proximity of the Pacific gateway. Strong linkages between sea-surface conditions, sea ice cover and export rate seem tightly linked there with large scale atmospheric synopses in the North Pacific and possibly the tropical Pacific. The apparent consistency of the Mount Logan record (Fisher et al., the Holocene 2008) with those of the Chukchi Sea (de Vernal et al., Quat. Sci. Rev. 2013) tends to support the hypothesis of a strong influence of North Pacific atmospheric teleconnections on sea-surface conditions in the Western Arctic.

  10. Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

  11. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Lawrence

    Full Text Available Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  12. Identification of dominant climate factor for pan evaporation trend in the Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiaomang; ZHENG Hongxing; ZHANG Minghua; LIU Changming

    2011-01-01

    Despite the observed increase in global temperature,observed pan evaporation in many regions has been decreasing over the past 50 years,which is known as the “pan evaporation paradox”.The “pan evaporation paradox” also exists in the Tibetan Plateau,where pan evaporation has decreased by 3.06 mm a-2 (millimeter per annum).It is necessary to explain the mechanisms behind the observed decline in pan evaporation because the Tibetan Plateau strongly influences climatic and environmental changes in China,Asia and even in the Northern Hemisphere.In this paper,a derivation based approach has been used to quantitatively assess the contribution rate of climate factors to the observed pan evaporation trend across the Tibetan Plateau.The results showed that,provided the other factors remain constant,the increasing temperature should have led to a 2.73 mm a-2 increase in pan evaporation annually,while change in wind speed,vapor pressure and solar radiation should have led to a decrease in pan evaporation by 2.81 mm a-2,1.96 mm a-2 and 1.11 mm a-2 respectively from 1970 to 2005.The combined effects of the four climate variables have resuited in a 3.15 mm a-2 decrease in pan evaporation,which is close to the observed pan evaporation trend with a relative error of 2.94%.A decrease in wind speed was the dominant factor for the decreasing pan evaporation,followed by an increasing vapor pressure and decreasing solar radiation,all of which offset the effect of increasing temperature across the Tibetan Plateau.

  13. Grassland communities in the USA and expected trends associated with climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Paul Belesky

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasslands, including managed grazinglands, represent one of the largest ecosystems on the planet. Managed grazinglands in particular tend to occupy marginal climatic and edaphic resource zones, thus exacerbating responses in net primary productivity relative to changes in system resources, including anthropogenic factors. Climate dynamism, as evident from the fossil record, appears to be a putative feature of our planet. Recent global trends in temperature and precipitation patterns seem to differ from long-term patterns and have been associated with human activities linked with increased greenhouse gas emissions; specifically CO2. Thus grasslands, with their diverse floristic components, and interaction with and dependence upon herbivores, have a remarkable ability to persist and sustain productivity in response to changing resource conditions. This resistance and resilience to change, including uncertain long-term weather conditions, establishes managed grasslands as an important means of protecting food security. We review responses of grassland communities across regions of the USA and consider the responses in productivity and system function with respect to climatic variation. Research is needed to identify plant resources and management technologies that strengthen our ability to capitalize upon physiological and anatomical features prevalent in grassland communities associated with varying growing conditions.

  14. Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher T.; Bekins, Barbara A.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee K.

    2014-03-01

    Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agriculture and climate is important for improving water quality. In the midwestern United States, expansion of corn cropping for ethanol production led to increasing N application rates in the 2000s during a period of extreme variability of annual precipitation. To examine the effects of these changes, surface water quality was analyzed in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Several decades of concentration and flow data were analyzed with a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals flow-normalized trends that are independent of year-to-year streamflow variations. Flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N decreased from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to flow-weighted annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low discharge in the 2000s and to the long (e.g., 8 year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of N and depletion of stored N occurs in years with high discharge. Reduced N transport and increased N storage occurs in low-discharge years. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in flow-normalized concentrations, likely because of smaller storage volumes and shorter residence times. Effects of land-use changes on the water quality of major Iowa Rivers may not be noticeable for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central basins where extreme flows strongly affect annual concentration trends.

  15. Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Collet, L.; Roucou, P.

    2012-03-01

    SummaryThis paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952-2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to: (i) the unbias and delta methods application and (ii) spatial and temporal downscaling. A temperature-based formula was used to calculate present and future potential evapotranspiration (PET). The daily rainfall and PET series were introduced into the calibrated and validated hydrological model to simulate future discharge. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion is over 89% for both calibration and validation periods, and the volume error between simulation and observation is close to null for the overall considered period. With regard to future climate, the results show clear trends of reduced rainfall over the catchment. This rainfall deficit, together with a continuing increase in potential evapotranspiration, suggests that runoff from the basin could be substantially reduced, especially in the long term (60-65%), compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. As a result, the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s.

  16. Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: seasonality and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopa, Justin E.; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny

    2016-07-01

    Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992-2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave-ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.

  17. Grain size trends reveal alluvial fan sensitivity to late Pleistocene climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, A. C.; D'Arcy, M. K.; Roda Boluda, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change on eroding landscapes and the sedimentary record remain poorly understood. The measurement of grain size fining rates in stream-flow dominated deposits provides one way to address this issue because, in principle, these trends embed important information about the dynamics of sediment routing systems and their sensitivities to external forcing. At a fundamental level, downstream fining is often driven by selective deposition of sediment. The relative efficiency of this process is determined by the physical characteristics of the input sediment supply and the spatial distribution of subsidence rate, which generates the accommodation necessary for mass extraction. Here, we measure grain size fining rates from apex to toe on two alluvial fan systems in northern Death Valley, California, which have well-exposed modern and 70 ka surfaces, where the long-term tectonic boundary conditions are known and where climatic variation over this time period is well-constrained. We integrate a self-similar gravel fraction fining model, based on selective sediment extraction, with cosmogenically-derived catchment erosion rates and gravel fining data, to estimate the change in sediment flux that occurred between 70 ka and the present day. Our results show that a 30 % decrease in average precipitation rate led to a 20 % decrease in sediment flux and a clear increase in the down-fan rate of fining. This supports existing landscape evolution models that relate a decrease in precipitation rate to a decrease in sediment flux, but implies that this relationship may be sub-linear. This study offers a new approach to applying grain size fining models to mountain catchments and their alluvial fan systems, and shows fan stratigraphy can be highly sensitive to climate changes over sensitivity is lost when sediment is remobilised and recycled over a time period longer than the duration of the climatic perturbation.

  18. Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csaba Vadadi-Fülöp

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical contributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii extending study sites to broader geographical areas with

  19. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  20. Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Muttoni

    2012-09-01

    -feedback mechanism that (usually inhibits the complete collapse of atmospheric pCO2 is the accelerating formation of thick cation-deficient soils that retard chemical weathering of the underlying bedrock. Nevertheless, equatorial climate seems to be relatively insensitive to pCO2 greenhouse forcing and thus with availability of some rejuvenating relief as in arc terranes or thick basaltic provinces, silicate weathering in this venue is not subject to a strong negative feedback, providing an avenue for sporadic ice ages. The safety valve that prevents excessive atmospheric pCO2 levels is the triggering of silicate weathering of continental areas and basaltic provinces in the temperate humid belt. Increase in Mg/Ca ratio of seawater over the Cenozoic may be due to weathering input from continental basaltic provinces.

  1. Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Kent

    2013-03-01

    -feedback mechanism that (usually inhibits the complete collapse of atmospheric pCO2 is the accelerating formation of thick cation-deficient soils that retard chemical weathering of the underlying bedrock. Nevertheless, equatorial climate seems to be relatively insensitive to pCO2 greenhouse forcing and thus with availability of some rejuvenating relief as in arc terranes or thick basaltic provinces, silicate weathering in this venue is not subject to a strong negative feedback, providing an avenue for ice ages. The safety valve that prevents excessive atmospheric pCO2 levels is the triggering of silicate weathering of continental areas and basaltic provinces in the temperate humid belt. Excess organic carbon burial seems to have played a negligible role in atmospheric pCO2 over the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

  2. Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochman, Zvi; Gobbett, David L; Horan, Heidi

    2017-01-24

    Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro-ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water-limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations prevented a further 4% loss relative to 1990 yields. Closer investigation of three sites revealed the nature of the simulated response of water-limited yield to water availability, water stress and maximum temperatures. At all three sites, maximum temperature hastened time from sowing to flowering and to maturity and reduced grain number per m(2) and average weight per grain. This 27% climate-driven decline in water-limited yield is not fully expressed in actual national yields. This is due to an unprecedented rate of technology-driven gains closing the gap between actual and water-limited potential yields by 25 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) enabling relative yields to increase from 39% in 1990 to 55% in 2015. It remains to be seen whether technology can continue to maintain current yields, let alone increase them to those required by 2050.

  3. Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: seasonality, trends, and wave-ice influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny; Stopa, Justin; Ardhuin, Fabrice

    2016-04-01

    The diminishing sea ice has direct implications on the wave field which is mainly dependent on the ice-free area and wind. Over the past decade, the Arctic sea ice has diminished which directly impacts the wave field. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic using detailed sea state information from a wave hindcast and merged altimeter dataset spanning 1992-2014. The waves are driven by winds from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Ice concentrations derived from satellites with a grid spacing of 12.5 km are sufficiently able to resolve important features in the marginal ice zone. Before implementation, suitable wind forcing is identified and the validity and consistency of the wave hindcast is verified with altimeters. The seasonal ice advance and retreat largely dictates the waves and creates distinct features in the wind-waves and swells. The Nordic-Greenland Sea is dominated by swells from the North Atlantic while the coastal regions and semi-enclosed seas of the Kara, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort have a more equal proportion of wind-waves and swells. Trends in the altimeters and model are in agreement and show increasing wave activities in the Baffin Bay, Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev, and Kara Seas due to the loss of sea ice. In the Nordic-Greenland Sea, there is a decreasing trend related to changes in the wind field by North Atlantic Oscillation. The waves also influence the sea ice. Two distinctly different wave-ice environments are identified and selected events demonstrate the importance of waves in the marginal ice zone. The crux of the research identifies the need for continued study and improvement of wave-ice interaction.

  4. Repository Profiles for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences: Capabilities and Trends in Data Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, C. Y.; Thompson, C. A.; Palmer, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    As digital research data proliferate and expectations for open access escalate, the landscape of data repositories is becoming more complex. For example, DataBib currently identifies 980 data repositories across the disciplines, with 117 categorized under Geosciences. In atmospheric and climate sciences, there are great expectations for the integration and reuse of data for advancing science. To realize this potential, resources are needed that explicate the range of repository options available for locating and depositing open data, their conditions of access and use, and the services and tools they provide. This study profiled 38 open digital repositories in the atmospheric and climate sciences, analyzing each on 55 criteria through content analysis of their websites. The results provide a systematic way to assess and compare capabilities, services, and institutional characteristics and identify trends across repositories. Selected results from the more detailed outcomes to be presented: Most repositories offer guidance on data format(s) for submission and dissemination. 42% offer authorization-free access. More than half use some type of data identification system such as DOIs. Nearly half offer some data processing, with a similar number providing software or tools. 78.9% request that users cite or acknowledge datasets used and the data center. Only 21.1% recommend specific metadata standards, such as ISO 19115 or Dublin Core, with more than half utilizing a customized metadata scheme. Information was rarely provided on repository certification and accreditation and uneven for transfer of rights and data security. Few provided policy information on preservation, migration, reappraisal, disposal, or long-term sustainability. As repository use increases, it will be important for institutions to make their procedures and policies explicit, to build trust with user communities and improve efficiencies in data sharing. Resources such as repository profiles will be

  5. Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu-ming WANG

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration (ET0 (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the change and each climatic variable’s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in . The radiative component of total increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October. The sensitivity analysis showed that in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%, followed by wind speed (−7.3% and relative humidity (4.8%. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on over the past 59 years.

  6. Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu-ming WANG; Hai-jun LIU; Li-wei ZHANG; Rui-hao ZHANG

    2014-01-01

    Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration ( 0ET ) (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method) were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the 0ET change and each climatic variable’s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in 0ET . The radiative component of total 0ET increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total 0ET than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October). The sensitivity analysis showed that 0ET in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%), followed by wind speed (-7.3%) and relative humidity (4.8%). Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on 0ET over the past 59 years.

  7. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  8. Response of phytoplankton dynamics to 19-year (1991-2009) climate trends in Potter Cove (Antarctica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Irene R.; Abele, Doris; Moreau, Sébastien; Demers, Serge; Bers, A. Valeria; González, Oscar; Ferreyra, Gustavo A.

    2012-04-01

    King George Island (KGI, Isla 25 de Mayo) is located within one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth at the north-western tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Since 1991 hydrographical characteristics and phytoplankton dynamics were monitored at two stations in Potter Cove, a fjord-like environment on the south-eastern KGI coastline. Seawater temperature and salinity, total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) and chlorophyll- a (Chl- a, a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) concentrations were measured in summer and winter over a 19-year period, together with local air temperature. Mean air temperatures rose by 0.39 and 0.48 °C per decade in summer and winter, respectively. Positive anomalies characterized wind speeds during the decade between the mid '90 and the mid 2000 years, whereas negative anomalies were observed from 2004 onwards. Day of sea ice formation and retreat, based on satellite data, did not change, although total sea ice cover diminished during the studied period. Surface water temperature increased during summer (0.36 °C per decade), whereas no trend was observed in salinity. Summer Chl- a concentrations were around 1 mg m - 3 Chl- a with no clear trend throughout the study period. TSPM increased in surface waters of the inner cove during the spring-summer months. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) climate signal was apparent in the fluctuating interannual pattern of the hydrographic variables in the outer Potter Cove and bottom waters whereas surface hydrography was strongly governed by the local forcing of glacier melt. The results show that global trends have significant effects on local hydrographical and biological conditions in the coastal marine environments of Western Antarctica.

  9. Management and climate contributions to satellite-derived active fire trends in the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hsiao-Wen; McCarty, Jessica L.; Wang, Dongdong; Rogers, Brendan M.; Morton, Douglas C.; Collatz, G. James; Jin, Yufang; Randerson, James T.

    2014-04-01

    Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77% of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9% per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

  10. Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmann, Lena; Agafonov, Leonid; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Churakova (Sidorova, Olga; Düthorn, Elisabeth; Esper, Jan; Hülsmann, Lisa; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Moiseev, Pavel; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nikolaev, Anatoly N.; Reinig, Frederick; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Solomina, Olga; Tegel, Willy; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-07-01

    The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ˜16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

  11. Dengue Fever Trends and Climate Change in San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller-Karger, F. E.; Mendez-Lazaro, P.; Otis, D. B.; McCarthy, M.; Pena-Orellana, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has important implications for public health. We developed and tested the hypothesis that conditions for dengue fever transmission in San Juan (Puerto Rico, USA) are becoming favorable as a result of meteorological drivers being modified with climate change. Sea level pressure, mean sea level (MSL), wind, sea surface temperature (SST), air surface temperature (AST), rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were variables examined over the past 30 years, or longer for some variables. Statistical tools used included Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend tests, and logistic regressions. Results show that dry days are increasing and that wet days are decreasing. MSL is steadily increasing, which increases the risk of dengue cases along the coast, as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and the shoreline moves inland. Warming is evident in both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have also increased. Incidence of dengue is accelerating along with environmental change. For example, between 2000-2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9-6.1) for each 1ºC increase in SST. Between 2007 and 2011, this risk factor increased to 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9-13.9) for every 1ºC increase in SST. An important but difficult to examine problem is how social and economic factors affect such dengue fever transmission rates in light of environmental change. A concern is that the patterns observed in San Juan are representative of potential incidence of dengue virus in other parts of the island of Puerto Rico and in other Caribbean nations. These results help understand patterns of disease spreading, and allow public health officials to evaluate scenarios and interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

  12. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  13. Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

  14. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  15. Report on ICDP workshop CONOSC (COring the NOrth Sea Cenozoic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerhoff, Wim; Donders, Timme; Luthi, Stefan

    2016-08-01

    ICDP workshop COring the NOrth Sea Cenozoic focused on the scientific objectives and the technical aspects of drilling and sampling. Some 55 participants attended the meeting, ranging from climate scientists, drilling engineers, and geophysicists to stratigraphers and public outreach experts. Discussion on the proposed research sharpened the main research lines and led to working groups and the necessary technical details to compile a full proposal that was submitted in January 2016.

  16. A climatology of Brazilian surface wind speed trends using in-situ and climate reanalysis datasets from 1980-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliland, J. M.; Keim, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    Wind speed trends have been extensively researched for the Northern Hemisphere and Australia. The general consensus among scientists is that wind speeds have declined over the past century. However, a minimal amount of research has focused on understanding how wind speeds changed across Brazil based on temporal and geographical perspectives. Therefore, this study provides a climatological assessment of wind speed trends across Brazil using in-situ and climatic model datasets from 1980-2014. Seasonal and annual trends are determined across the study area using linear and quantile regression. Geographical Information Systems is used to interpret and understand how wind speed trends have changed across Brazil. Preliminary results show two distinct wind speed trend patterns exist across Brazil. The largest wind speed magnitude increases occurred along northeastern and coastal Brazil, where as decreasing wind speeds have been observed for central and southeastern Brazil. Furthermore, quantile regression also shows the largest seasonal and annual wind trend fluctuations occur at lower (5%) and upper percentiles (95%) for both in-situ and climate model datasets. As a result, these findings indicate possible alterations in atmospheric and oceanic circulations could be affecting wind speed trends across Brazil and warrants further investigation and research.

  17. 75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-17

    ... Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session on July 14-15 and on July 29... of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Notice of...

  18. Climatic and chemical drivers of trends in DOC in northern surface waters in Europa and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wit, Heleen A.; Monteith, Don T.; Stoddard, John L.

    2016-04-01

    Concentrations of DOC in boreal surface waters have increased to levels that create challenges for water treatment plants, and that potentially impact lake habitat through increased anoxia and thermal mixing, and productivity. Aquatic transport of DOC from land to oceans is likely to increase, even if runoff patterns would remain stable. Reduced acid deposition appears to be a dominant driver behind the increase in DOC concentrations, through increasing organic matter solubility. We hypothesize that the higher solubility of organic matter makes DOC more susceptible to climate change. Here, we present trends in DOC from circa 500 lakes and streams in subarctic, boreal and temperate headwater catchments in Europe (UK, Fennoscandia, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and North America (Northeastern US, Ontario, Atlantic Canada) from 1990 until 2012; an extension of the trend analysis presented in Monteith et al. (2007). The water chemical data stem from national monitoring networks, assembled by the ICP Waters network. Sampling frequencies vary from 1 to 52 samples per year. Climate data were obtained from Climate Research Unit in the UK. Trends were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen-slope estimator. We test 1) if DOC responds to changes in the rate of decline in acid deposition, and 2) if trends in temperature and precipitation affect trends and variability in DOC. Positive trends dominate: the median (±2.5% quartile) of the absolute and relative DOC trends is +0.06 (+0.36 to -0.02) mg C L-1 yr-1 and +1.4 (+4.7 to -0.9) % yr-1, respectively. Overall, the trends do not level off when comparing 1990-2004, and 1998-2012, except in the UK and Atlantic Canada. These two regions are strongly impacted by seasalt deposition but may also experience stronger warming than elsewhere. The response of DOC to changes in SO4 (expressed as trend ratios) is stronger in 1998-2012 than in 1990-2004. We will explore whether this changing relates to increasing dominance of

  19. The Cenozoic evolution of the San Joaquin Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartow, J. Alan

    1991-01-01

    homocline, the western limb of the valley syncline between the Stockton arch and Panoche Creek, consists of a locally faulted homocline with northeast dips. Deformation is mostly late Cenozoic, is complex in its history, and has included up-to-the-southwest reverse faulting. The west-side fold belt, the southwestern part of the valley syncline between Panoche Creek and Elk Hills and including the southern Diablo and Temblor Ranges, is characterized by a series of folds and faults trending slightly oblique to the San Andreas fault. Paleogene folding took place in the northern part of the belt; however, most folding took place in Neogene time, during which the intensity of deformation increased southeastward along the belt and southwestward toward the San Andreas fault. The Maricopa-Tejon subbasin and the south-margin deformed belt are structurally distinct, but genetically related, regions bounded by the Bakersfield arch on the north, the San Emigdio Mountains on the south, the Tehachapi Mountains on the east, and the southeast end of the fold belt on the west. This combined region, which is the most deformed part of the basin, has undergone significant late Cenozoic shortening through north-directed thrust faulting at the south margin, as well as extreme Neogene basin subsidence north of the thrust belt. The sedimentary history of the San Joaquin basin, recorded in terms of unconformity-bounded depositional sequences, has been controlled principally by tectonism, but it has also been controlled by eustatic sea-level changes and, to a lesser degree, by climate. Plate tectonic events that had an influence on the basin include (1) subduction during the early Tertiary that changed from oblique to normal convergence in the later part of the Eocene, (2) the mid-Oligocene encounter of the Pacific-Farallon spreading ridge with the trench, and the consequent establishment of the San Andreas transform, (3) the northwestward migration of the Mendocino triple junction that in

  20. Climate-influenced ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa seed masting trends in western Montana, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R. Keyes

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: The aim of this study was to analyze 10-year records of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa seed production, in order to confirm synchronic seed production and to evaluate cyclical masting trends, masting depletion effect, and climate-masting relationships. Area of study: The study area was located in a P. ponderosa stand in the northern Rocky Mountains (western Montana, USA. Material and methods: The study was conducted in one stand that had been subjected to a silvicultural study of uneven-aged management techniques that was carried out in 1984, and which resulted in three separate units consisting of one control, one cut/no-burn treatment, and one cut/burn treatment. Seeds were collected during the 10 years following treatment in 15 traps systematically deployed within each of the stand’s three units. The total numbers of seeds collected in each unit were plotted over time to analyze crop synchrony, with Spearman rank correlation coefficient used to test for masting cycles and crop depletion after a mast year. Meteorological records over the period 1983-1994 were related to the occurrence of a mast event (defined as crops exceeding 50,000 viable seeds/ha. Main results: The seed production pattern was non-cyclical, synchronous, and independent of silvicultural treatment history. A mast-depletion effect was evident but was not statistically significant. Mast events seem to be promoted by the occurrence of optimum mean temperatures at the beginning of spring during both the first (11 °C and second (9 °C years of cone maturation. The probability of a mast year was also affected by summer temperature (number of late frost days; negative effect and precipitation amount (positive effect. All these factors would seemingly explain the observed synchronous pattern in cone production. Research highlights: The non-cyclical trend of ponderosa pine seed mast years is influenced by specific climate determinants. Fluctuations in mean early

  1. Modelling trends in tropical column ozone with the UKCA chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, Luke; Harris, Neil; Maycock, Amanda; Pyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Trends in tropical column ozone under a number of different emissions scenarios are explored with the UM-UKCA coupled chemistry climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation was run following the RCP6 scenario. Tropical averaged (10S-10N) total column ozone values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances, and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the total column is subdivided into three partial columns, extending from the surface to the tropopause, the tropopause to 30km, and 30km to 50km, significant differences to the total column trend are seen. Modelled tropospheric column values increase from 1960-2000 before remaining steady throughout the 21st Century. Lower stratospheric column values decrease rapidly from 1960-2000, remain steady until 2050 before slowly decreasing to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. Upper stratospheric values decrease from 1960-2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st Century, recovering to 1980s values by ~2020 and are significantly increased above the 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised model simulations with varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, we assess the physical processes driving the partial column response in the troposphere, lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere, and assess how these processes change under different emissions scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model for predicting tropical column ozone values based on greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance scenarios.

  2. Urban partnerships in low-carbon development: Opportunities and challenges of an emerging trend in global climate politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Beermann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the linkages between two recent trends in global climate governance. The first trend is the growing focus on cities in the multi-level governance of climate change. Whereas international climate change negotiations often end in deadlock, many urban centers across the world are taking the lead. Industrialized cities from the Global North and increasingly cities from the emerging Southern economies are experimenting with innovative and ambitious programs to reduce their local carbon footprints. A second trend is the expan¬ding urban North-South cooperation in the area of low-carbon development. This cooperation takes various forms, such as city twinning, transnational municipal networks and trans-local development cooperation. A key target of these initiatives is to develop joint projects and exchange knowledge to foster low-carbon development pathways. This study analyzes the conditions of success and failure in selected Indo-German urban low-carbon partnerships with a particular focus on institutional arrangements. The paper presents evidence from three initiatives and argues that successful trans-local cooperation depends largely on the interplay between institutional forms and the development of social capital. Building on these findings, the paper discusses what lessons may be drawn from the emergence of urban North-South cooperation for the future development of global climate governance.

  3. Linear trend and climate response of five-needle pines in the western United States related to treeline proximity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kipfmueller, K.F. [Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept. of Geography; Salzer, M.W. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research

    2010-01-15

    This study investigated sixty-six 5-needle pine growth chronologies from 1896 to their end years in order to identify potential patterns related to linear trends in ring width. Individual chronology responses to climate were also evaluated by comparing the chronologies with seasonal temperature and precipitation data from 1896 to the present date. Chronologies exhibiting similar patterns of climate response were grouped in order to examine the role of treeline proximity on climate-growth relationships. Ring width measurements for pine sites located in the western United States were obtained from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Growth indices were compared among all sites in order to assess the relative strength of common signals with increasing distance. Pearson correlations were used to calculate linear trends for each chronology. A cluster analysis of climate response patterns indicated that most chronologies positively associated with temperatures were located near upper treeline and contained significant positive linear trends. The study suggested that 5-needle pine treeline chronologies may be used as predictors in temperature reconstructions. However, care must be taken to determine that collection sites have not been impacted by disturbances such as fire or insect outbreaks. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  4. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  5. Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

    2009-04-01

    . Findings are then applied to future global climate scenario runs to obtain a first estimate of trends for the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and their impact on spatial and temporal characteristics of floods in the Greater Dhaka region. From this estimate, a prediction method for the spatial patterns of flooding within the Dhaka area will be developed. The social part of the project analyzes the vulnerability and resilience of economic and social systems within high-risk areas by utilizing methods such as e.g. quantitative household surveys in Dhaka and qualitative expert interviews. Geographers are hoping to identify adaptation and recovery strategies of slum dwellers and informal businesses (e.g. brickfields, tanneries), analyze the role of social capital as well as formal and informal institutions for building up resilience, and analyze possibilities and limits of adaptation strategies under conditions of further urban growth and climate change. By paying attention to the important behavioral patterns of the informal sector, a meteorological early warning system can then be developed to make better use of weather predictions to mitigate weather-related risks for Greater Dhaka. If successful, this project poses as an exemplary intersection of social science and natural hazards research.

  6. Cenozoic carbon cycle imbalances and a variable weathering feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caves, Jeremy K.; Jost, Adam B.; Lau, Kimberly V.; Maher, Kate

    2016-09-01

    The long-term stability of Earth's climate and the recovery of the ocean-atmosphere system after carbon cycle perturbations are often attributed to a stabilizing negative feedback between silicate weathering and climate. However, evidence for the operation of this feedback over million-year timescales and in response to tectonic and long-term climatic change remains scarce. For example, the past 50 million years of the Cenozoic Era are characterized by long-term cooling and declining atmospheric CO2 (pCO2). During this interval, constant or decreasing carbon fluxes from the solid Earth to the atmosphere suggest that stable or decreasing weathering fluxes are needed to balance the carbon cycle. In contrast, marine isotopic proxies of weathering (i.e., 87Sr/86Sr, δ7 Li , and 187Os/188Os) are interpreted to reflect increasing weathering fluxes. Here, we evaluate the existence of a negative feedback by reconstructing the imbalance in the carbon cycle during the Cenozoic using the surface inventories of carbon and alkalinity. Only a sustained 0.25-0.5% increase in silicate weathering is necessary to explain the long-term decline in pCO2 over the Cenozoic. We propose that the long-term decrease in pCO2 is due to an increase in the strength of the silicate weathering feedback (i.e., the constant of proportionality between the silicate weathering flux and climate), rather than an increase in the weathering flux. This increase in the feedback strength, which mirrors the marine isotope proxies, occurs as transient, 1 million year timescales remains invariant to match the long-term inputs of carbon. Over the Cenozoic, this results in stable long-term weathering fluxes even as pCO2 decreases. We attribute increasing feedback strength to a change in the type and reactivity of rock in the weathering zone, which collectively has increased the reactivity of the surface of the Earth. Increasing feedback strength through the Cenozoic reconciles mass balance in the carbon cycle with

  7. Climatic Redistribution of Canada's Water Resources (CROCWR): An analysis of spatial and temporal hydrological trends and patterns in western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bawden, A. J.; Burn, D. H.; Prowse, T. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability and change can have profound impacts on the hydrologic regime of a watershed. These effects are likely to be especially severe in regions particularly sensitive to changes in climate, such as the Canadian north, or when there are other stresses on the hydrologic regime, such as may occur when there are large withdrawals from, or land-use changes within, a watershed. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed that future climate is likely to accelerate the hydrologic cycle and hence may affect water security in certain locations. For some regions, this will mean enhanced access to water resources, but because the effects will not be spatially uniform, other regions will experience reduced access. Understanding these patterns is critical for water managers and government agencies in western Canada - an area of highly contrasting hydroclimatic regimes and overlapping water-use and jurisdictional borders - as adapting to climate change may require reconsideration of inter-regional transfers and revised allocation of water resources to competing industrial sectors, including agriculture, hydroelectric production, and oil and gas. This research involves the detection and examination of spatial and temporal streamflow trends in western Canadian rivers as a response to changing climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and the synoptic patterns controlling these drivers. The study area, known as the CROCWR region, extends from the Pacific coast of British Columbia as far east as the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border and from the Canada-United States international border through a large portion of the Northwest Territories. This analysis examines hydrologic trends in monthly and annual streamflow for a collection of 34 hydrometric gauging stations believed to adequately represent the overall effects of climate variability and change on flows in western Canada by means of the Mann-Kendall non

  8. Key trends of climate change in the ASEAN countries. The IPAT decomposition analysis 1980-2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, J.; Luukkanen, J.; Kaivo-oja, J.; Panula-Ontto, J.; Allievi, F.

    2012-07-01

    has been widely recognized. Energy and climate policy planning requires in-depth analyses of current trends and structures of energy production systems and related emission flows. Possibilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depend critically on economic growth and on the development of energy efficiency in economywide production systems. The ASEAN Leaders have expressed their concern and commitment for ASEAN to play a proactive role in addressing climate change through their declarations to the 2007 Bali and 2009 Copenhagen UN Conferences on Climate Change. They view the protection of the environment and the sustainable use and management of natural resources as essential to the long-term economic growth and social development of countries in the region. The ASEAN Vision 2020 calls for 'a clean and green ASEAN' with fully established mechanisms to ensure the protection of the environment, sustainability of natural resources, and high quality of life of people in the region. ASEAN Leaders have noted that: 'We acknowledged the energy cooperation between ASEAN and Japan in promoting energy efficiency and conservation as well as new and renewable energy, and stressed the need for closer cooperation. The ASEAN Leaders welcomed Japan's efforts to create a low-carbon society. We appreciated Thailand's offer for the use of the Practical Energy Management Training Center in Thailand which was established with funding from Japan to other ASEAN Member States interested in energy conservation in factories.' Thus, low carbon society is key energy policy target of ASEAN countries. Our analysis in this e-book gives analytical background to this strategy. This e-book also indicates that ASEAN countries have very different kind of challenges for low carbon strategy. The e-book provides useful information for ASEAN energy policy formulation and implementation of the Bali Roadmap. This study presents a comparative analysis of the driving forces behind

  9. The Research of Cenozoic Migrant Worker Satisfaction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于海霞

    2010-01-01

    The phenomenon of Cenozoic migrant worker shortage is a realism problem of China's enterprise,and Cenozoic migrant worker has become an important force occupied the social structure.So the study of Cenozoic migrant worker's status and the demand is imperative.Understand employees"both psychological and physiological satisfaction of enterprises'environmental factors,and make some corresponding changes is of great help to reduce the employee turnover rate.This paper commenced to research from the Cenozoic migrant worker's characteristics,analyzed conditions and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.

  10. Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Stock

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties – zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE, the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL, and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC, were demonstrated to be responsible for the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics already have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production, the primary target of herbivorous mesozooplankton. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice – both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases associated with declining sea ice in the Artic and damped projected NPP declines associated with decreased mixing in the Northwest Atlantic and

  11. Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, C. A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

    2014-07-01

    Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties - zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), were demonstrated to be responsible for the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics already have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production, the primary target of herbivorous mesozooplankton. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice - both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases associated with declining sea ice in the Artic and damped projected NPP declines associated with decreased mixing in the Northwest Atlantic and Southern Ocean

  12. Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, C. A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

    2014-12-01

    Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's ESM2M-COBALT (Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics) earth system model. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties - zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), explain the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high-latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice - both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases in the Arctic and damped projected NPP declines in the northwestern Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Improved understanding of the

  13. Varying trends in surface energy fluxes and associated climatebetween 1960-2002 based on transient climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazarenko, Larissa; Menon, Surabi

    2005-07-20

    The observed reduction in land surface radiation over the last several decades (1960-1990)---the so-called ''dimming effect''--- and the more recent evidence of a reversal in ''dimming'' over some locations beyond 1990 suggest several consequences on climate, notably on the hydrological cycle. Such a reduction in radiation should imply reduced surface temperature (Ts) and precipitation, which have not occurred. We have investigated the possible causes for the above climate features using a climate model coupled to a dynamic ocean model under natural and anthropogenic conditions. To isolate the aerosol influence on surface radiation trends, we have analyzed transient climate simulations from1960 to 2002 with and without anthropogenic aerosols. Based on a linear trend with aerosol effects included, the global mean change in the surface solar radiation absorbed over land is -0.021+-0.0033 Wm-2yr-1. Although the overall trend is negative, we do note a reversal in dimming after 1990, consistent with observations. Without aerosol effects, the surface solar radiation absorbed over land increases throughout 1960 to 2002, mainly due to the decrease in cloud cover associated with increased greenhouse warming. In spite of a simulated increase in Ts of 0.012 Kyr-1 for 1960 to 2002, the global mean latent heat flux and associated intensity of the hydrological cycle decrease overall, however with increases over some land locations due mainly to moisture advection. Simulated changes correspond more closely to observed changes when accounting for aerosol effects on climate.

  14. Variations and trends of terrestrial NPP and its relation to climate change in the 10 CMIP5 models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Suosuo Li; Shihua Lü; Yuanpu Liu; Yanhong Gao; Yinhuan Ao

    2015-03-01

    Using global terrestrial ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) data, we validated the simulated multi-model ensemble (MME) NPP, analyzed the spatial distribution of global NPP and explored the relationship between NPP and climate variations in historical scenarios of 10 CMIP5 models. The results show that the global spatial pattern of simulated terrestrial ecosystem NPP, is consistent with IGBP NPP, but the values have some differences and there is a huge uncertainty. Considering global climate change, near surface temperature is the major factor affecting the terrestrial ecosystem, followed by the precipitation. This means terrestrial ecosystem NPP is more closely related to near surface temperature than precipitation. Between 1976 and 2005, NPP shows an obvious increasing temporal trend, indicating the terrestrial ecosystem has had a positive response to climate change. MME NPP has increased 3.647PgC during historical period, which shows an increasing temporal trend of 3.9 gCm−2∙100 yr−2 in the past 150 years, also indicating that the terrestrial ecosystem has shown a positive response to climate change in past 150 years.

  15. Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2014-05-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

  16. Temporal trends in West Antarctic surface mass balance: do large scale modes of climate contribute to observed records?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, M.; Rupper, S.; Williams, J.; Burgener, L. K.; Koenig, L.; Forster, R. R.; Koutnik, M. R.; Skinner, R.; Miege, C.; Brucker, L.

    2013-12-01

    Western Antarctica has been warming significantly at a rate of 0.17× 0.06 degrees C per decade from 1957 to 2006, with the strongest warming in the winter and spring months. Annual accumulation rates in the central WAIS have been decreasing over the same time period, in spite of rising temperatures. This is somewhat unexpected, as saturation vapor pressure increases with increasing temperature. One possible explanation of this observation could be related to synoptic-scale modes of climate, principally the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These modes of climate are known to modify the track and strength of storms seasonally, but the true extent of the influence of these modes on accumulation in central WAIS is not well known. This is due, in part, to sparse instrumental weather data which makes it difficult to understand the spatial and temporal variability of the central WAIS Surface Mass Balance (SMB). Firn cores provide an excellent temporal SMB record that can fill this data gap, but are spatially limited. The spatial limitation of individual cores can be remedied by creating a network of firn cores over a region, which overcomes small scale variability and provides a regional representation of SMB over the temporal length of the firn core records. The 2011 Satellite Era Accumulation Traverse (SEAT) adds nine new firn cores (20 m deep, spanning 2010-1981) to existing cores within the same region of the central WAIS to improve the spatial network of regional SMB measurements. SMB is reconstructed from the firn cores, and are compared to simulated accumulation from five climate models and reanalyses datasets. The combination of firn cores and simulated records are used to investigate wether SAM and ENSO significantly influence SMB in the central WAIS. The new suite of cores show a statistically significant negative trend in accumulation during the past three decades, which is consistent with results from the previous cores

  17. Analysing the Cenozoic depositional record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goledowski, Bartosz; Clausen, O.R.; Nielsen, S.B.

    It is well known that sediment deposition in the North Sea and on the Norwegian Shelf varied significantly during the Cenozoic as a consequence of varying erosion rate mainly in Western Scandinavia, in Scotland and in the Alps. Recent results have demonstrated that a causal relationship exists...... of variations in erosion rates. Here we present the rationale behind the project, the data available and some preliminary results. The dense seismic and well coverage in the area makes it possible to estimate the rate of deposition of matrix mass. Assuming that sediment storage is not important, this provides...

  18. Climatic trends in the North Atlantic region during the last 2,000 years in an orbitally forced AOGCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2013-12-01

    The global coverage of temporal highly resolved proxy-based climate reconstructions is extending to cover the last 2,000 years. It is thus important to fully understand the effect of the orbital forcing at these time scales, as the imprint of the orbital forcing becomes clearer when analyzing climate on time scales longer than the last 1,000 years. The slow-varying orbital parameters affect the seasonal distribution of the incoming solar radiation. Although changes are not as pronounced compared to the mid-Holocene, still distinct differences exist, with lower insolation between February and May and higher insolation between July and October over the mid- and high northern latitudes 2,000 years ago compared to present. Here, we analyze a simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G forced only with changes in orbital variations for the last 2,000 years. Other factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gas changes are set to constant pre-industrial values. The modeled near-surface temperature trends reflect the expected orbitally induced insolation trends over the northern hemispheric continents and the Arctic, with increased temperatures during May and reduced temperatures during October. Over the North Atlantic Ocean, however SST trends are not directly consistent to changes in orbital forcing throughout the year, mostly showing little or slight uniform cooling trends. The strength of the maximum overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean also shows no clear-cut trends that can be linked to changes in external forcings. Other variables related to oceanic convection and surface heat fluxes indicate, however, spatially heterogeneous trend patterns. For example, regions south of Greenland and off Labrador show increases in convection that compensate the decreases over the Labrador and the Norwegian Sea. This pattern varies in intensity and spatial extent between the different winter half year months. Changes in oceanic convection and surface heat

  19. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun

    2016-09-01

    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  20. Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Danish North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huuse, M.; Lykke-Andersen, H.; Michelsen, O.

    2003-12-01

    This paper provides a review of recent high-resolution and conventional seismic investigations in the eastern Danish North Sea and destribes their implications for the development of the eastern North Sea Basin. The results tomprise detailed timestructure maps of four major unconformities in the eastern Danish North Sea: the Top Chalk surface (mid-Paleogene), near top Oligocene, the mid-Miocene unconformity, and base Quatemary. The maps show that the eastem Danish North Sea has been affected by fauldng and salt diapirism throughout the Cenozoic. Carbonate mounds, erosional valleys and pockmark- or karstlike struttures were identitied at the top of the Upper Cretaceous-Danian Chalk Group. Strike-parallel erosional features and depositional geometries observed at near top Oligocene and at the mid-Miocene unconformity indicate that these major sequence boundarics tan be attributed to large-scale lateral changes in sediment supply directions. Increases in sediment flux to the southeastern North Sea at the Eocene/Oligocene transition and in the post-Middle Miocene appear to correlate with similar events world wide and with long term {delta} {sup 18} O increases, indicating forting by global factors, i.e. eustasy and climate. Stratal geometries observed on the seismic data indicate that the socalled `Neogene uplift' of the Bastern Danish North Sea may have been hundreds of metres less than previously suggested. lt is argued that late Cenozoic uplift of the basin margin and of mountain peaks in southern Norway may have been caused entirely by isostatic uplift of the trust in response to accelerated late Cenozoic denudation and dissection of topography created in the Paleogene. The late Cenozoic periods of accelerated denudation and incision rates were most likely driven by climatic deterioration and long term eustatic lowering rather than active late Cenozoic tectonics, the cause of which is conjectural. A series of shallow thrust struttures and an associated system

  1. Correcting the Cenozoic δ18O deep-sea temperature record

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2004-01-01

    The oxygen isotope signal in benthic foraminifera from deep-sea cores is mainly determined by deep-ocean temperature and land ice volume. Separating the temperature and ice volume signals is a key step in understanding the evolution of Cenozoic climate. Except for the last few million years, fluctua

  2. Late Cenozoic Paleoceanography of the Central Arctic Ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Regan, Matt, E-mail: oreganM1@cardiff.ac.uk [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, Wales (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and perhaps least accessible of the worlds oceans. It occupies only 26% of the global ocean area, and less than 10% of its volume. However, it exerts a disproportionately large influence on the global climate system through a complex set of positive and negative feedback mechanisms directly or indirectly related to terrestrial ice and snow cover and sea ice. Increasingly, the northern high latitude cryosphere is seen as an exceptionally fragile part of the global climate system, a fact exemplified by observed reductions in sea ice extent during the past decades [2]. The paleoceanographic evolution of the Arctic Ocean can provide important insights into the physical forcing mechanisms that affect the form, intensity and permanence of ice in the high Arctic, and its sensitivity to these mechanisms in vastly different climate states of the past. However, marine records capturing the late Cenozoic paleoceanography of the Arctic are limited - most notably because only a single deep borehole exists from the central parts of this Ocean. This paper reviews the principal late Cenozoic (Neogene/Quaternary) results from the Arctic Coring Expedition to the Lomonosov Ridge and in light of recent data and observations on modern sea ice, outlines emerging questions related to three main themes: 1) the establishment of the 'modern' Arctic Ocean and the opening of the Fram Strait 2) the inception of perennial sea ice 3) The Quaternary intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

  3. Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000%1971-2000年青藏高原气候变化趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴绍洪; 尹云鹤; 郑度; 杨勤业

    2007-01-01

    Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971-2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56-Penmen-Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate generally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly potential evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simultaneous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.

  4. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O’Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; Stein, Bruce A.; Thompson, Laura M.; Turner, Woody

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

  5. Vegetation Activity Trend and Its Relationship with Climate Change in the Three Gorges Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guifeng Han

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on SPOT/VGT NDVI time series images from 1999 to 2009 in the Three Gorges Area (TGA, we detected vegetation activity and trends using two methods, the Mann-Kendall and Slope tests. The relationships between vegetation activity trends and annual average temperature and annual total precipitation were analyzed using observational data in seven typical meteorological stations. Vegetation activity presents a distinctive uptrend during the study period, especially in Fengjie, Yunyang, Wushan, Wuxi, and Badong counties located in the midstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, in the Chongqing major area (CMA and its surrounding areas and Fuling, Yichang, and part of Wanzhou, vegetation activity shows a decreasing trend as a result of urban expansion. The NDVI has two fluctuation troughs in 2004 and 2006. The annual mean temperature presents a slight overall upward trend, but the annual total precipitation does not present a significant trend. And they almost have no significant correlations with the NDVI. Therefore, temperature and precipitation are not major influences on vegetation activity change. Instead, increasing vegetation cover benefits from a number of environment protection policies and management, and ecological construction is a major factor resulting in the upward trend. In addition, resettlement schemes mitigate the impact of human activity on vegetation activity.

  6. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  7. Do trend extraction approaches affect causality detection in climate change studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xu; Hassani, Hossein; Ghodsi, Mansi; Mukherjee, Zinnia; Gupta, Rangan

    2017-03-01

    Various scientific studies have investigated the causal link between solar activity (SS) and the earth's temperature (GT). Results from literature indicate that both the detected structural breaks and existing trend have significant effects on the causality detection outcomes. In this paper, we make a contribution to this literature by evaluating and comparing seven trend extraction methods covering various aspects of trend extraction studies to date. In addition, we extend previous work by using Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) - an advanced non-parametric causality detection technique to provide evidence on the effect of existing trend in global temperature on the causality detection outcome. This paper illustrates the use of a method to find the most reliable trend extraction approach for data preprocessing, as well as provides detailed analyses of the causality detection of each component by this approach to achieve a better understanding of the causal link between SS and GT. Furthermore, the corresponding CCM results indicate increasing significance of causal effect from SS to GT since 1880 to recent years, which provide solid evidences that may contribute on explaining the escalating global tendency of warming up recent decades.

  8. Trend Change Study of Climate Variables in Xin’anjiang-Fuchunjiang Watershed, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Zaman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study emphasizes the precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperature trend and presents the results of study in temporal and spatial scales, after performing statistical analysis of the Xin’anjiang-Fuchunjiang watershed. Statistical Mann Kendall and Theil Sen techniques were used to determine the trend and its magnitude, respectively, and for determining the start and abrupt change in the trend, Sequential Mann Kendall test has been performed. Furthermore, statistical tests were performed to determine the overall trend in the area at a regional basis. For the removal of the serial effect of the data, prewhitening technique is applied. In this study, statistical tests were performed at 1901–2013 precipitation and temperature series and then after detection of the change year precipitation data were divided into two different scenarios of 1901–1960 period and 1961–2013 period. The results showed that precipitation trend is insignificant while maximum and minimum temperature have increased during 1901–2013 period except for some stations of autumn and summer seasons.

  9. Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  10. A New Weighting Function for Estimating Microwave Sounding Unit Channel 4 Temperature Trends Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xuanze; ZHENG Xiaogu; YANG Chi; LUO San

    2013-01-01

    A new static microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project,Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS (RTTOV vl0).For the same CMIP5 model simulations,it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature (T4) trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV,but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) or RSS (Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa,California) static weighting functions.The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost,but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function.This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics.Although not completely removed,this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent,especially over the tropics.This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions.This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.

  11. Effects of variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting on decadal surface water quality trends, Iowa, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. T.; Bekins, B. A.; Kalkhoff, S.; Hirsch, R. M.; Liao, L.; Barnes, K.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrogen fluxes from agricultural lands are a major concern for ecological health and water quality. Understanding how these fluxes respond to changes in agricultural practices and climatic variations is important for improving water quality in agricultural settings. In the midwestern USA, intensification of corn cropping as a result of ethanol production led to increases in N application rates in the 2000s during a period including both extreme dry and wet conditions. To examine the effect of these recent changes, a study was conducted on surface water quality in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Long term (~20 to 30 years) water quality and flow data were analyzed with Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS), a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals decadal trends that are independent of random variations of stream flow from seasonal averages. Trends of surface water quality showed constant or decreasing flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low discharge in the 2000's and to the long (e.g. 8-year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of surface water nitrate and depletion of stored nitrate may occur in years with very high discharge. Limited transport of N to surface water and accumulation of stored N may occur in years with very low discharge. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in concentrations, likely because extensive tile drainage results in smaller storage volumes and shorter residence times, and the glacial sediments are naturally reducing. Effects of agricultural intensification from ethanol production and other factors will likely be delayed for years or decades in

  12. Trends in research on global climate change: A Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinfeng; Wang, Ming-Huang; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2011-05-01

    This study was conceived to evaluate the global scientific output of climate change research over the past 18 years and to assess the characteristics of the research patterns, tendencies, and methods in the papers. Data were based on the online version of Science Citation Index Expanded from 1992 to 2009. Articles referring to climate change were assessed by distribution of source countries, source institutes, paper titles, author keywords, KeyWords Plus, abstracts, and the most cited articles in these years. By synthetic analysis of the four kinds of keywords, it was concluded that the items "temperature", "environment", "precipitation", "greenhouse gas", "risk", and "biodiversity" will be the foci of climate change research in the 21st century, while "model", "monitoring", and "remote sensing" will continue to be the leading research methods. A novel method, "phylogeography", may have a strong application potential in the near future.

  13. Climatic trends in hail precipitation in France: spatial, altitudinal, and temporal variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermida, Lucía; Sánchez, José Luis; López, Laura; Berthet, Claude; Dessens, Jean; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    Hail precipitation is characterized by enhanced spatial and temporal variability. Association Nationale d'Etude et de Lutte contre les Fléaux Atmosphériques (ANELFA) installed hailpad networks in the Atlantic and Midi-Pyrénées regions of France. Historical data of hail variables from 1990 to 2010 were used to characterize variability. A total of 443 stations with continuous records were chosen to obtain a first approximation of areas most affected by hail. The Cressman method was selected for this purpose. It was possible to find relationships between spatial distributions of the variables, which are supported by obtained Pearson correlations. Monthly and annual trends were examined using the Mann-Kendall test for each of the total affected hailpads. There were 154 pads with a positive trend; most were located between Tarbes and Saint-Gaudens. We found 177 pads with a negative trend, which were largely south of a pine forest in Landes. The remainder of the study area showed an elevated spatial variability with no pattern, even between relatively close hailpads. A similar pattern was found in Lérida (Spain) and Southeast France. In the entire area, monthly trends were predominantly negative in June, July, and August, whereas May had a positive trend; again, however, there was no spatial pattern. There was a high concentration of hailpads with positive trend near the Pyrenees, probably owing to orographic effects, and if we apply cluster analysis with the Mann-Kendall values, the spatial variability is accentuated for stations at higher altitude.

  14. Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

    2007-01-01

    observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

  15. The simulation of cutoff lows in a regional climate model: reliability and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grose, Michael R. [University of Tasmania, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS (Australia); Pook, Michael J.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Risbey, James S. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Hobart, TAS (Australia); Bindoff, Nathaniel L. [University of Tasmania, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS (Australia); CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Hobart, TAS (Australia); University of Tasmania, Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS (Australia)

    2012-07-15

    Cutoff lows are an important source of rainfall in the mid-latitudes that climate models need to simulate accurately to give confidence in climate projections for rainfall. Coarse-scale general circulation models used for climate studies show some notable biases and deficiencies in the simulation of cutoff lows in the Australian region and important aspects of the broader circulation such as atmospheric blocking and the split jet structure observed over Australia. The regional climate model conformal cubic atmospheric model or CCAM gives an improvement in some aspects of the simulation of cutoffs in the Australian region, including a reduction in the underestimate of the frequency of cutoff days by more than 15 % compared to a typical GCM. This improvement is due at least in part to substantially higher resolution. However, biases in the simulation of the broader circulation, blocking and the split jet structure are still present. In particular, a northward bias in the central latitude of cutoff lows creates a substantial underestimate of the associated rainfall over Tasmania in April to October. Also, the regional climate model produces a significant north-south distortion of the vertical profile of cutoff lows, with the largest distortion occurring in the cooler months that was not apparent in GCM simulations. The remaining biases and presence of new biases demonstrates that increased horizontal resolution is not the only requirement in the reliable simulation of cutoff lows in climate models. Notwithstanding the biases in their simulation, the regional climate model projections show some responses to climate warming that are noteworthy. The projections indicate a marked closing of the split jet in winter. This change is associated with changes to atmospheric blocking in the Tasman Sea, which decreases in June to November (by up to 7.9 m s{sup -1}), and increases in December to May. The projections also show a reduction in the number of annual cutoff days by 67

  16. Algal constraints on the Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. M. Rickaby

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent question for future climate, in light of increased burning of fossil fuels, is the temperature sensitivity of the climate system to atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2. To date, no direct proxy for past levels of pCO2 exists beyond the reach of the polar ice core records. We propose a new methodology for placing an upper constraint on pCO2 over the Cenozoic based on the living geological record. Specifically, our premise is that the contrasting calcification tolerance of various extant species of coccolithophore to raised pCO2 reflects an "evolutionary memory" of past atmospheric composition. The different times of first emergence of each morphospecies allows an upper constraint of past pCO2 to be placed on Cenozoic timeslices. Further, our hypothesis has implications for the response of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification. Geologically "ancient" species, which have survived large changes in ocean chemistry, are likely more resilient to predicted acidification.

  17. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  18. Trend and concentration characteristics of precipitation and related climatic teleconnections from 1982 to 2010 in the Beas River basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Xu, Chong-Yu; Chen, Haishan; Li, Lu; Xu, Hongliang; Li, Hong; Jain, Sharad K.

    2016-10-01

    The Beas River, located in the Western Himalayan mountainous regions in India, is one of the major tributaries of the Indus River. However, recent changes of precipitation and related climatic teleconnections in this river basin have rarely been investigated yet. In this study, the trend and concentration characteristics of precipitation during1982-2010 are investigated by using Mann-Kendall trend test and two kinds of concentration indices. The climatic teleconnections are explored with the help of cross correlation, wavelet transform and composite analysis, revealing the relationship of precipitation with climatic indices of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results indicate that: (1) Precipitation of most of the stations increased in the monsoon season while precipitation of all the stations decreased in the non-monsoon seasons. As a result, the annual precipitation of the majority of the stations was on the decrease. (2) A general increase in the precipitation Gini coefficient and precipitation concentration degree (PCD) was detected. Moreover, the precipitation concentration period (PCP) is mainly within the period from May to August, and more PCP occurred in the monsoon months recently. (3) The relationship between monsoon precipitation and ISM is not significant in the Beas River basin. The relationship between precipitation and ENSO in winter is less significant than in the monsoon season, and the relationship of monsoon/winter precipitation with IOD is not as evident as that with ENSO. Besides, ENSO and NAO play important roles in the changes of monsoon and winter precipitation in the Beas River basin.

  19. The characteristic trends of karst springs discharges in relation to climate change (examples from the Classical Karst, SE Slovenia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravbar, Natasa; Kovacic, Gregor

    2016-04-01

    Changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle induced by global warming are among the biggest actual concerns. The observed records and climate simulations are consistent in projecting changing precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide. Particularly the incidence of changed precipitation amount, intensity and variability may increase changes in hydrological regimes, and could have implications on water quantity and quality in many areas. This may affect freshwater dependant ecosystems and several socio-economic activities. Groundwater resources availability, stability of access and utilisation may further provoke difficulties for many services, such as drinking water supply, agriculture, industry, hydropower, etc. Karst aquifers are due to their specific nature (i.e. rapid infiltration rates and underground water flow, highly controlled by conduits) highly dependent on respective hydrological conditions. The goal of this study was to better understand how and to what extent impacts of the climate change may affect karst groundwater resources and to quantify the role of karst aquifers in flood attenuation and baseflow maintenance. The characteristic linear trends of mean, minimal and maximal annual discharge values of nine selected karst springs in SE Slovenia have been assessed and compared with the linear trends of annual precipitation amount and air temperature covering a 52-year period (1961 - 2013). The data have also been evaluated in respect to the individual spring's catchment characteristics (e.g. storage capacity). Obtained results and analysis reveal the impacts of climate (environmental) change on karst groundwater and call for urgent adherence of standards for karst water sources protection, monitoring and rational use in the relevant management strategies.

  20. Greenhouse technology for sustainable production in mild winter climate areas: Trends and needs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montero, J.I.; Stanghellini, C.; Castilla, N.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse production in the near future will need to reduce significantly its environmental impact. For this purpose, elements such as the structure, glazing materials, climate equipments and controls have to be developed and wisely managed to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, achieve maximum

  1. Recent Trends in National Policy on Education for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laessøe, Jeppe; Mochizuki, Yoko

    2015-01-01

    Climate change education (CCE) is a new phenomenon which is gaining increasing significance in the work of international organizations and international non-governmental organizations. Based primarily on a cross-national desk study of national policy documents relevant to CCE in 17 countries, which was commissioned by UNESCO to gain a robust…

  2. Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, a Climatic Transitional Zone in East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengwe Ye

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation data from 30 stations in the Huaihe River basin (HRB, a climatic transitional zone in east China, were used to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends of extreme precipitation on multitimescales for the period 1961–2010. Results indicated that (1 the spatial pattern of the annual precipitation, rainy days, extreme precipitation, and maximum daily precipitations shows a clear transitional change from the south (high to the north (low in the HR; it confirmed the conclusion that the HRB is located in the transitional zone of the 800 mm precipitation contour in China, where the 800 mm precipitation contour is considered as the geographical boundary of the south and the north. (2 Higher value of the extreme precipitation intensity mainly occurs in the middle of the east and the central part of the basin; it reveals a relatively distinct west-east spatial disparity, and this is not in line with the spatial pattern of the extreme precipitation total, the sum of the precipitation in 95th precipitation days. (3 Annual precipitation of 22 stations exhibits increasing trend, and these 22 stations are located from the central to the northern part. There is no significant trend detected for the seasonal precipitation. The summer precipitation exhibits a larger change range; this might cause the variation of the flood and drought in the HBR. However, the increasing trend in winter precipitation may be beneficial to the relief of winter agricultural drought. Rainy days in 12 stations, mostly located in and around the central northeastern part, experienced significant decreasing trend. Extreme precipitation days and precipitation intensity have increasing trends, but no station with significant change trend is detected for the maximum precipitation of the basin. (4 The spatiotemporal variability in the HRB is mainly caused by the geographic differences and is largely influenced by the interdecadal variations of East Asian

  3. Implications of climate-driven variability and trends for the hydrologic assessment of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, V.; Nayak, Anurag

    2010-05-01

    SummaryThe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the implications of long-term climate trends for the hydroclimatology of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains, Idaho of the Intermountain West over a 40-year period (1967-2006). Calibration and validation of the macroscale hydrology model in this highly monitored watershed is key to address the watershed processes that are vulnerable to both natural climate variability and climate change. The model was calibrated using the streamflow data collected between 1997 and 2006 from the three nested weirs, the Reynolds Mountain East (RME), Tollgate and Outlet. For assessing the performance of the calibrated model, this study used 30 years of streamflow data for the period between 1966 and 1996. This investigation suggested that the model predicted streamflow was best at RME, and inadequate at Outlet. Simulated soil moisture was also verified using the data available from five soil moisture measurement sites. The model was able to capture the seasonal patterns of changes in soil water storage considering the differences in the spatial extent of the observed and predicted soil water storage (point measurements against the spatially averaged values for the HRU) and uncertainty associated with the soil moisture measurements due to instrument effects. Water budget partitioning during a wet (1984) water year and a dry (1987) water year were also analyzed to characterize the differences in hydrologic cycles during the extreme hydrologic conditions. Our analysis showed that in the dry water year, vegetation at the higher elevation were under water stress by the end of the water year. Contrastingly, in the wet water year only the vegetation at low and mid-elevations were under water stress whereas vegetation at the higher elevations derived substantial soil moisture for ET processes even towards the end of the growing season. To understand the effect of climate change on

  4. Long term variations in small mammal composition of a snake diet do not mirror climate change trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiero, Lorenzo; Milana, Giuliano; Capula, Massimo; Amori, Giovanni; Luiselli, Luca

    2012-08-01

    The study of the dietary changes which have intervened over the years in generalist and opportunist predators may provide useful information on the temporal modifications of their prey communities, especially under a climate change scenario. In this study, we analysed the quantitative changes in the small mammal portion of the diet of a generalist and opportunist predator, the asp viper (Vipera aspis) at a forest zone in central Italy, for the period 1987-2010. In addition, small mammals were trapped in five of these years. Apodemus spp., Mus musculus, and Myodes glareolus were the main prey for vipers. Among the various taxa eaten by vipers, only two showed significantly consistent trends over the years, with M. glareolus increasing and Sorex spp. declining in the viper diet. There were no significant relationships between the number of years passed after the first year of sampling and the diversity and dominance indexes of prey composition. We also found a significantly positive relationship between small mammal abundance in the field and their relative frequency of occurrence in the viper's diet, thus demonstrating that vipers really sampled the small mammal species in relation to their local availability. Despite being temperate-zone forest-associated species, hence likely adversed by global warming, Sorex spp. and M. glareolus showed opposite trends over the years, thus suggesting that such trends may reflect more local scale perturbations (local forest overgrowth and diminution of logging).

  5. Climate variability, precipitation trends, and impacts on surface processes in humid to arid climate transition zones of the NW Argentine Andes (24° S, 65° W)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    In the Andes of NW Argentina the distribution and amount of rainfall and associated surface processes are intimately correlated with pronounced topographic gradients and relief contrasts that intercept easterly moisture-bearing winds related to the South American Monsoon System. These conditions have led to a pronounced elevation-dependent distribution of rainfall, which involves areally limited transition zones between the humid eastern flanks of the orogen (eastern foreland and eastern flanks of the E Cordillera) and the arid orogen interior (Puna Plateau). At interannual scales rainfall patterns in this area can be modulated by different atmospheric disturbances, such as the South Atlantic Convergent Zone and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, resulting in drought or flooding events. During the last two decades, field observations document fluvial aggradation in many intermontane valleys along the eastern flanks of the orogen. This may be related to changing overall climatic conditions, impacting hillslope erosion processes at high elevation, but contemporaneously overwhelming the fluvial system and reducing transport capacity, leading to transient sediment storage. We analyzed rainfall trends in the humid to arid climatic transition zone in the NW Argentine Andes over different time periods to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall patterns during the last five decades. We relied on both daily ground station (40 stations, 1956-2012) and three-hourly remote sensing rainfall data (3B42 V7 TRMM data, 1998-2014). Seasonal total anomalies analysis shows a complex rainfall pattern, reflected both in station data and remote sensing observations with clear positive (negative) statistically significant trends in the northern Puna Plateau and in the northern part of the foreland basin (southern part of the eastern foreland basin) of up to +20mm/yr (-20mm/yr). Quantile regression of three-hourly and daily data furthermore shows that, on average

  6. Drought Change Trend Using MODIS TVDI and Its Relationship with Climate Factors in China from 2001 to 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIANG Liang; ZHAO Shu-he; QIN Zhi-hao; HE Ke-xun; CHEN Chong; LUO Yun-xiao; ZHOU Xing-dong

    2014-01-01

    Changes in drought trends and its relationship with climate change in China were examined in this study. The temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) datasets recorded during 2001 to 2010 in China were constructed by using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in drought were analyzed. In addition, the mean temperature, mean precipitation, mean relative humidity, and mean sunshine duration data collected from 557 local weather stations in China were analyzed. The relationships between drought and these climate factors were also analyzed by using correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis. Changes in drought tendency were shown to differ among four regions throughout the country. The lfuctuations in climate in the regions of northeastern China, Qinling-Huaihe, and central Qinghai were caused by the increase in soil moisture, and that in southern Tibet was caused by the intensiifcation of drought. Meteorological factors exhibited varied effects on drought among the regions. In southern China, the main inlfuential factor was temperature;other factors only showed minimal effects. That in the northern and northwestern regions was sunshine duration, and those in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were relative humidity and temperature.

  7. A fractal climate response function can explain global temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

    CERN Document Server

    van Hateren, J H

    2013-01-01

    A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850-2010 temperature trend. The quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with an equilibrium response to doubling of CO2 concentration of 2.0 \\pm 0.3 ^{\\circ}C (mean \\pm standard error), of which about 50% is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30% with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20% with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1% yearly rise of CO2 concentration) is 1.5 \\pm 0.2 ^{\\circ}C. The temperature rise from 1820-1950 can be attributed for about 70...

  8. Effects of climate change on phenological trends and seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jian; Ji, Feng

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) in oasis of arid regions may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study assessed the impacts of climatic changes on the phenological phases and productivity of spring cotton. The results showed that climatic warming led the dates of sowing seed, seeding emergence, three-leaf, five-leaf, budding, anthesis, full bloom, cleft boll, boll-opening, boll-opening filling, and stop-growing become earlier by 24.42, 26.19, 24.75, 23.28, 22.62, 15.75, 14.58, 5.37, 2.85, 8.04, and 2.16 days during the period of 1981-2010, respectively. The growth period lengths from sowing seed to seeding emergence and from boll-opening to boll-opening filling were shortened by 1.76 and 5.19 days, respectively. The other growth period lengths were prolonged by 2-9.71 days. The whole growth period length was prolonged by 22.26 days. The stop-growing date was delayed by 2.49-3.46 days for every 1 °C rise in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; however, other development dates emerged earlier by 2.17-4.76 days. Rising temperatures during the stage from seeding emergence to three-leaf reduced seed cotton yields. However, rising temperatures increased seed cotton yields in the two stages from anthesis to cleft boll and from boll-opening filling to the stop-growing. Increasing accumulated temperatures (AT) had different impacts on different development stages. During the vegetative phase, rising AT led to reduced seed cotton yields, but rising AT during reproductive stage increased seed cotton yields. In conclusion, climatic warming helpfully obtained more seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions in northwest China. Changing the sowing date is another way to enhance yields for climate change in the future.

  9. A universal driver of macroevolutionary change in the size of marine phytoplankton over the Cenozoic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkel, Z V; Sebbo, J; Feist-Burkhardt, S; Irwin, A J; Katz, M E; Schofield, O M E; Young, J R; Falkowski, P G

    2007-12-18

    The size structure of phytoplankton assemblages strongly influences energy transfer through the food web and carbon cycling in the ocean. We determined the macroevolutionary trajectory in the median size of dinoflagellate cysts to compare with the macroevolutionary size change in other plankton groups. We found the median size of the dinoflagellate cysts generally decreases through the Cenozoic. Diatoms exhibit an extremely similar pattern in their median size over time, even though species diversity of the two groups has opposing trends, indicating that the macroevolutionary size change is an active response to selection pressure rather than a passive response to changes in diversity. The changes in the median size of dinoflagellate cysts are highly correlated with both deep ocean temperatures and the thermal gradient between the surface and deep waters, indicating the magnitude and frequency of nutrient availability may have acted as a selective factor in the macroevolution of cell size in the plankton. Our results suggest that climate, because it affects stratification in the ocean, is a universal abiotic driver that has been responsible for macroevolutionary changes in the size structure of marine planktonic communities over the past 65 million years of Earth's history.

  10. Cenozoic mean greenhouse gases and temperature changes with reference to the Anthropocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glikson, Andrew

    2016-12-01

    Cenozoic greenhouse gases (GHG) variations and warming periods underscore the extreme rates of current climate change, with major implications for the adaptability and survivability of terrestrial and marine habitats. Current rise rate of greenhouse gases, reaching 3.3 ppm CO2 per year during March 2015-2016, is the fastest recorded since the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Event (PETM) when carbon release to the atmosphere was about an order of magnitude less than at present. The ice core evidence of concentration of (GHG) and temperatures in the atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system over the last 740 kyr suggests that the rate of rise in GHG over the last ~260 years, CO2 rates rising from 0.94 ppm yr(-1) in 1959 (315.97 ppm) to 1.62 ppm yr(-1) in 2000 (369.52 ppm) to 3.05 ppm yr(-1) in 2015 (400.83 ppm), constitutes a unique spike in the history of the atmosphere. The reliance of pre-740 kyr paleoclimate estimates on multiple proxies, including benthic and plankton fossils, fossil plants, residual organic matter, major and trace elements in fossils, sediments and soils, place limits on the resolution of pre-upper Pleistocene paleoclimate estimates, rendering it likely recorded mean Cenozoic paleoclimate trends may conceal abrupt short-term climate fluctuations. However, as exemplified by the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and earlier GHG and temperature spikes associated with major volcanic and asteroid impact events, the long-term residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere extends the signatures of abrupt warming events to within detection limits of multiple paleoproxies. The mean post-1750 temperature rise rate (approximately ~0.0034 °C per yr, or ~0.008 °C per yr where temperature is not masked by sulfur aerosols) exceeds those of the PETM (approximately ~0.0008-0.0015 °C per yr) by an order of magnitude and mean glacial termination warming rates (last glacial termination [LGT] ~ 0.00039; Eemian ~0.0004 °C per yr) by near to an order of magnitude

  11. TRENDS IN ATMOPSHERIC CLIMATE PARAMETERS MEASURED AT SRS 1964-2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weinbeck, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-04-20

    Meteorological data collected at SRS since the mid-1960’s have been analyzed for trends in minimum and maximum temperature, heating and cooling degree days, precipitation and relative humidity. The trends in meteorological data collected have been relatively small compared to the interannual variability that is observed. The observed increases, while small, appear to be real (statistically significant). Overnight low temperatures (3.1°F) have increased over twice as fast as the increases in daytime highs (1.4°F). Similarly, there are statistically significant increases in the number of cooling degree days as well. There has been a similar decrease in the number of HDD and freezing days, consistent with the overall increase in overnight low temperatures.

  12. Polar ozone depletion and trends as represented by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model (WACCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnison, Douglas; Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane; Mills, Michael; Neely, Ryan, III; Schmidt, Anja; Garcia, Rolando; Smith, Anne

    2016-04-01

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, Version 4 (WACCM4) is a comprehensive numerical model, spanning the range of altitude from the Earth's surface to the lower thermosphere [Garcia et al., JGR, 2007; Kinnison et al., JGR, 2007; Marsh et al., J. of Climate, 2013]. WACCM4 is based on the framework of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), and includes all of the physical parameterizations of CAM4 and a finite volume dynamical core for the tracer advection. This version has a detailed representation of tropospheric and middle atmosphere chemical and physical processes. Simulations completed for the SPARC Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), REFC1, REFC2, SENSC2, and REFC1SD scenarios are examined (see Eyring et al., SPARC Newsletter, 2013). Recent improvements in model representation of orographic gravity wave processes strongly impact temperature and therefore polar ozone depletion as well as its subsequent recovery. Model representation of volcanic events will also be shown to be important for ozone loss. Evaluation of polar ozone depletion processes (e.g., dehydration, denitrification, chemical activation) with key observations will be performed and the impact on future ozone recovery will be identified.

  13. 1982–2010 Trends of Light Use Efficiency and Inherent Water Use Efficiency in African vegetation: Sensitivity to Climate and Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoul Khadre Traore

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Light and water use by vegetation at the ecosystem level, are key components for understanding the carbon and water cycles particularly in regions with high climate variability and dry climates such as Africa. The objective of this study is to examine recent trends over the last 30 years in Light Use Efficiency (LUE and inherent Water Use Efficiency (iWUE* for the major biomes of Africa, including their sensitivities to climate and CO2. LUE and iWUE* trends are analyzed using a combination of NOAA-AVHRR NDVI3g and fAPAR3g, and a data-driven model of monthly evapotranspiration and Gross Primary Productivity (based on flux tower measurements and remote sensing fAPAR, yet with no flux tower data in Africa and the ORCHIDEE (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms process-based land surface model driven by variable CO2 and two different gridded climate fields. The iWUE* data product increases by 10%–20% per decade during the 1982–2010 period over the northern savannas (due to positive trend of vegetation productivity and the central African forest (due to positive trend of vapor pressure deficit. In contrast to the iWUE*, the LUE trends are not statistically significant. The process-based model simulations only show a positive linear trend in iWUE* and LUE over the central African forest. Additionally, factorial model simulations were conducted to attribute trends in iWUE and LUE to climate change and rising CO2 concentrations. We found that the increase of atmospheric CO2 by 52.8 ppm during the period of study explains 30%–50% of the increase in iWUE* and >90% of the LUE trend over the central African forest. The modeled iWUE* trend exhibits a high sensitivity to the climate forcing and environmental conditions, whereas the LUE trend has a smaller sensitivity to the selected climate forcing.

  14. Dynamic topography and the Cenozoic carbonate compensation depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S. M.; Moucha, R.; Raymo, M. E.; Derry, L. A.

    2015-12-01

    The carbonate compensation depth (CCD), the ocean depth at which the calcium carbonate accumulation rate goes to zero, can provide valuable insight into climatic and weathering conditions over the Cenozoic. The paleoposition of the CCD can be inferred from sediment core data. As the carbonate accumulation rate decreases linearly with depth between the lysocline and CCD, the CCD can be calculated using a linear regression on multiple sediment cores with known carbonate accumulation rates and paleodepths. It is therefore vital to have well-constrained estimates of paleodepths. Paleodepths are typically calculated using models of thermal subsidence and sediment loading and compaction. However, viscous convection-related stresses in the mantle can warp the ocean floor by hundreds of meters over broad regions and can also vary significantly over millions of years. This contribution to paleobathymetry, termed dynamic topography, can be calculated by modeling mantle flow backwards in time. Herein, we demonstrate the effect dynamic topography has on the inference of the late Cenozoic CCD with an example from the equatorial Pacific, considering sites from IODP Expeditions 320/321. The equatorial Pacific, given its large size and high productivity, is closely tied to the global carbon cycle. Accordingly, long-term changes in the equatorial Pacific CCD can be considered to reflect global changes in weathering fluxes and the carbon cycle, in addition to more regional changes in productivity and thermohaline circulation. We find that, when the dynamic topography contribution to bathymetry is accounted for, the equatorial Pacific CCD is calculated to be appreciably shallower at 30 Ma than previous estimates would suggest, implying a greater deepening of the Pacific CCD over the late Cenozoic.

  15. Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in Norway : signs of a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Solvang, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the duration of seasonal ice cover on lakes and rivers over the Northern Hemisphere has declined over the 19th and 20th Centuries, mainly as a consequence of rising temperatures. However, lake and river ice trends have not been well documented in Norway. Quality control and homogeneity testing were performed on ice cover data from 48 Norwegian lake and river sites with long records. A total of 142 individual records of ice phenology (freeze-up, break-up and ice ...

  16. Recovery trends of Scrobicularia plana populations after restoration measures, affected by extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdelhos, T; Cardoso, P G; Dolbeth, M; Pardal, M A

    2014-07-01

    The Mondego estuary (Portugal) went through different ecological scenarios over the last decades. An eutrophication process led to a decline in the ecosystem quality. The ensuing restoration plan resulted into a gradual ecological recovery, which was impaired by the occurrence of successive extreme climate events that affected dynamics and productivity of key species. In this study we assess the response of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana to the impacts of these events in a recovery scenario, by comparing populations in two different intertidal habitats: a seagrass bed and a sandflat area. As a general tendency, S. plana, which was negatively affected by eutrophication, responded positively to restoration. However, the occurrence of extreme climate events seemed to affect recruitment success, biomass and production, impairing the recovery process. In the seagrass bed, S. plana maintained a stable and structured population, while in the sandflat area recovery clearly reverted into a decline, mainly concerning biomass and production values. This sequence of multiple stressors might have reduced S. plana resilience to further impacts and therefore, understanding the behavior of biological populations following restoration initiatives requires acknowledgement that some changes may not be easily reversible.

  17. [Trends of the grass ecological evolution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheremet'ev, S N; Gamaleĭ, Iu V

    2009-01-01

    The results of an analytic research show that the evolution of leaf structure and water balance are completely coincident with the global changes of the planet climate and hydrology. Taxic diversity of herbs and herbaceous biomes is a function of the paleoclimate variability and the plant adaptations to it. The correlation between the plant organization and climate changes allow to reconstruct both the climate changes chronicle and the geological ages of plant taxa based on the structure and function of the plant species. Two global trends of ecological evolution can be recognized differing mutually by the composition of herbaceous adaptive types: (a) the evolutionary line of herbs of chilling plains with domination of the plant species with C3 apoplastic syndrome formed under cold climate condition, and (b) the evolutionary line of herbs of hot plains with domination of plant species with C4 apoplastic syndrome. Both trends include the monocots and dicots, and both are the results of climate changes in the Cenozoic. C3 herbs of chilling plains and the steppe and meadow phytocoenoses formed by them arose as an answer to the temperature decrease in the significant areas of high latitudes. The apoplastic syndrome (transfer from symplastic transport of assimilates suppressed by cold to their apoplastic transport) is a diagnostic feature for this group of herbs. The C4 herbs of hot plains and the savannas, deserts and the saline land plant vegetation are an adaptive answer to iridizations of low latitude areas. The C4 syndrome (compensation of stomata closure by the mechanism of CO2 concentration in the leaf tissues) is a special character of this group of herbs. Both types of herbaceous biomes come to change forest biomes which were strongly decreased in both areas at low and high latitudes. This tendency is continued in parallel with the climate tendency to the continent dessication and cooling.

  18. A decadal trend of juvenile European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, L. responses to climate patterns in the Mondego estuary, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Granja Bento

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Estuarine systems support the life cycle stages of commercially important marine fish and are influenced by large and local-scale climatic patterns. Also, extreme events triggered by climate changes may influence the functioning of nursery grounds and recruitment for several fish species. In this study, performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, we used an 11-year database (2003-2013 for analyzing the variability in the population of a marine juvenile migrant fish, the European sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax, regarding changes in abundance, population structure, growth rates and secondary production and annual day of peak abundance. Higher densities and production occurred at the beginning of the study, but no differences in 0-group growth could be observed. In order to detect change points in both biological and climatic data, the cumulative sum (CUSUM of the deviations from the mean for the 2003-2013 period were determined for each parameter. The relationship between large- and local-scale drivers and 0-group abundance, secondary production and day of peak abundance were evaluated using a Pearson correlation analysis of CUSUM of biological and environmental data, considering the correspondent yearly values and with a time-lag of 1 year. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, sea surface temperature (SST and their respective winter values were tested as large-scale factors, while river runoff, salinity and water temperature were considered as local climate patterns. River runoff was the significant factor explaining D. labrax 0-group abundances and the NAO and water temperature were also significant predictors considering the 1-year lag. Regarding D. labrax 0-group secondary production, salinity and water temperature were the significant predictors. The NAO with 1-year lag was also negatively correlated with the day of peak abundance. The observed variability regarding yearly trends in abundance of juvenile fish was mostly linked to local

  19. Long-term snow, climate, and streamflow trends at the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Owyhee Mountains, Idaho, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, A.; Marks, D.; Chandler, D. G.; Seyfried, M.

    2010-06-01

    Forty-five water years (1962-2006) of carefully measured temperature, precipitation, snow, and streamflow data for valley bottom, midelevation, and high-elevation sites within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, located in the state of Idaho, United States, were analyzed to evaluate the extent and magnitude of the impact of climate warming on the hydrology and related resources in the interior northwestern United States. This analysis shows significant trends of increasing temperature at all elevations, with larger increases in daily minimum than daily maximum. The proportion of snow to rain has decreased at all elevations, with the largest and most significant decreases at midelevations and low elevations. Maximum seasonal snow water equivalent has decreased at all elevations, again with the most significant decreases at lower elevations, where the length of the snow season has decreased by nearly a month. All trends show a significant elevation gradient in either timing or magnitude. Though interannual variability is large, there has been no significant change in water year total precipitation or streamflow. Streamflow shows a seasonal shift, stronger at high elevations and delayed at lower elevations, to larger winter and early spring flows and reduced late spring and summer flows.

  20. Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lenderink

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Hourly precipitation extremes in very long time series from the Hong Kong Observatory and the Netherlands are investigated. Using the 2 m dew point temperature from 4 h before the rainfall event as a measure of near surface absolute humidity, hourly precipitation extremes closely follow a 14% per degree dependency – a scaling twice as large as following from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, for dew point temperatures above 23 °C no significant dependency on humidity was found. Strikingly, in spite of the large difference in climate, results are almost identical in Hong Kong and the Netherlands for the dew point temperature range where both observational sets have sufficient data. Trends in hourly precipitation extremes show substantial increases over the last century for both De Bilt (the Netherlands and Hong Kong. For De Bilt, not only the long term trend, but also variations in hourly precipitation extremes on an inter-decadal timescale of 30 yr and longer, can be linked very well to the above scaling; there is a very close resemblance between variations in dew point temperature and precipitation intensity with an inferred dependency of hourly precipitation extremes of 10 to 14% per degree. For Hong Kong there is no connection between variations in humidity and those in precipitation intensity in the wet season, May to September. This is consistent with the found zero-dependency of precipitation intensity on humidity for dew points above 23 °C. Yet, outside the wet season humidity changes do appear to explain the positive trend in hourly precipitation extremes, again following a dependency close to twice the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.

  1. Urbanization Trends (2001-2006) In The Conterminous United States And Regional Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, G. Z.; Homer, C.

    2011-12-01

    More than 50% of the world population now lives in urban and suburban areas. The rate of urbanization in the world is expected to continue to accelerate in the near future. As urban areas expand by transforming the surrounding landscape into impervious surface, the changes of urban land cover (ULC) have significant implications for wide range consequences. Monitoring changes in large urban areas becomes increasingly important. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently published the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 products including land cover and percent impervious surface area (ISA) for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The percent ISA, which represents the fraction of impervious area in a 30 m grid, was estimated using regression tree algorithms with both Landsat and nighttime lights imagery. Generally, the approach comprises four major procedures: creating a training dataset, modeling a synthetic impervious surface, comparing model outputs for optimal selection and final product clean up. The ISA product was used to define four different ULC types by categorizing percent ISA and quantitatively determining the extent of ULC. We analyzed 2001 and 2006 imperviousness variations to summarize two areal increments: ISA, which calculates the area of imperviousness proportion in every 30 m pixels, and urban area, which totals the number of 30 m pixels that contain any impervious surface. The new ISA in 2006 increases 4.1% (4095 km2) from the 2001 base amount across the CONUS. The growth of ISA reached approximately 819 km2 per year during the period. The total ISA in 2006 reached 103,615 km2, which is slightly smaller than the state of Kentucky. The new urban area in 2006 was 12,365 km2 and the total urban area reached 500,153 km2, which is close to the size of California and Indiana combined. To analyze the interactions between ULC change and climate systems, we used both the gridded climate data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent

  2. Cenozoic imprints on the phylogenetic structure of palm species assemblages worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissling, W Daniel; Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Baker, William J; Borchsenius, Finn; Couvreur, Thomas L P; Balslev, Henrik; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2012-05-08

    Despite long-standing interest in the origin and maintenance of species diversity, little is known about historical drivers of species assemblage structure at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we use global species distribution data, a dated genus-level phylogeny, and paleo-reconstructions of biomes and climate to examine Cenozoic imprints on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages of palms (Arecaceae), a species-rich plant family characteristic of tropical ecosystems. We find a strong imprint on phylogenetic clustering due to geographic isolation and in situ diversification, especially in the Neotropics and on islands with spectacular palm radiations (e.g., Madagascar, Hawaii, and Cuba). Phylogenetic overdispersion on mainlands and islands corresponds to biotic interchange areas. Differences in the degree of phylogenetic clustering among biogeographic realms are related to differential losses of tropical rainforests during the Cenozoic, but not to the cumulative area of tropical rainforest over geological time. A largely random phylogenetic assemblage structure in Africa coincides with severe losses of rainforest area, especially after the Miocene. More recent events also appear to be influential: phylogenetic clustering increases with increasing intensity of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climatic oscillations in South America and, to a lesser extent, Africa, indicating that specific clades perform better in climatically unstable regions. Our results suggest that continental isolation (in combination with limited long-distance dispersal) and changing climate and habitat loss throughout the Cenozoic have had strong impacts on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages in the tropics.

  3. The effects of climate change on fungal diversity patterns in the UK and Greece: Contrasting trends and ecological interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damialis, A.; Gange, A. C.; Mohammad, A. B.; Halley, J. M.

    2013-05-01

    It is well known that climate change has been affecting the ecology of living organisms. However, very little research has been done concerning alterations in fungal ecology. The changes in climate are expected to have an impact on fungal biodiversity patterns. Such changes in turn might have implications for public health since the spores of certain fungal taxa (e.g. Alternaria, Cladosporium) cause respiratory problems in sensitised individuals, with symptoms manifested even as acute respiratory failure. The objectives of this study were: a) to perform a comprehensive analysis of trends in long-term time series of fungal fruiting and sporulation variables for a wide range of fungal taxa, b) to investigate the response of fungal abundance and diversity to environmental variability. Data from two different geoclimatic areas were used: a) England, UK from more than 350 fungal species belonging to 10 different functional groups and with phenological records of fungal fruiting (start, end and duration) since 1950, b) Thessaloniki, Greece for 14 airborne fungal types with quantitative records (total annual concentration) and phenological records (start, peak, end, duration) of the atmospheric spore season since 1987. In parallel, various meteorological factors were examined in both areas in order to elucidate the relationship between climate and fungal diversity patterns. Long-term trends were found in most cases: these were particularly pronounced in the UK, where more than 300 species (~82%) displayed trends. Of these, ~77% were towards an earlier beginning and ~81% towards a later ending of the fruiting season; overall, an extension of the fruiting season seems to occur in more than 200 species. On a per-functional-group basis, except for manure, soil and mycorrhizal deciduous fungal species, all the other (137 species) exhibited earlier first fruiting dates and extended seasons. On the other hand, in Greece, although a tendency was observed towards lower yearly

  4. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  5. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  6. DIVERSITY VARIATIONS OF THE LATE CENOZOIC MAMMALS IN THE LINXIA BASIN AND THEIR RESPONSE TO THE CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL BACKGROUNDS%临夏盆地晚新生代哺乳动物的多样性变化及其对气候环境背景的响应

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓涛

    2011-01-01

    The Late Cenozoic deposits of the Linxia Basin in Gansu, China are relatively thick, bearing abundant mammalian fossils of different periods from the Late Oligocene to the Early Pleistocene. Until now, 172 species in 42 families of 10 orders have been found,all of which are extinct forms at the specific level and only a small number of genera have extant species. These fossils are important materials to study the evolution of mammalian faunas and their relationship with climatic and environmental backgrounds. The diversity and morphology of mammals are tightly related to climatic and environmental factors, and especially sensitive to changes of temperature, humidity and elevation. Interpretations to climatic and environmental changes reflect the evolution of mammals. Specific diversities, new records, and vanished species in the sedimentary sequence of the Linxia Basin are counted for each Chinese land mammal age. The diversity variations of mammals in the Linxia Basin were very noticeable throughout the Late Cenozoic,which are divided into different stages; the Middle Miocene,Late Miocene and Early Pleistocene have the highest diversities, the Late Oligocene and Early Miocene have the lowest, and the Pliocene has the moderate. The climatic and environmental variations of the Linxia Basin in different ages, which are judged from mammalian diversities, are highly consistent with other independent evidence, such as the result of the cenogram analysis, and closely relevant to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.%甘肃临夏盆地的晚新生代沉积物厚度巨大,其中富含从晚渐新世到早更新世各个时代的哺乳动物化石,目前已知包括10目42科131属172种,在种级水平上全部是绝灭类型,仅少数属有现生代表.这些化石是研究哺乳动物群演化及其与气候环境背景关系的重要材料.哺乳动物的多样性和形态特征与气候环境因素密切相关,对温度、湿度和海拔高度的变化尤其敏感.依据

  7. Effect of climate change, CO2 trends, nitrogen addition, and land-cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Herrero, Mario; Havlík, Petr; Wang, Xuhui; Sultan, Benjamin; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-01-01

    Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE-GM a process-based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991-2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8-2.0 g C m(-2)  yr(-2) during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36-43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has 'inadvertently' enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N2 O and CH4 emissions by 1.2-1.5 Gt CO2 -equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991-2010. Land-cover change, climate change and rising CO2 also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual - nonattributed - term (22-26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.

  8. Recent Trends of Tree Growth in Relation to Climate Change in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOMOGYI, Zoltán

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper addresses two related issues. One is whether, and how, growth patterns of standmean height have changed in Hungary in the last few decades, and the other is whether recentlyobserved increases in mean annual temperature might have caused changes in growth trends. Changesin tree growth were investigated for beech (Fagus sylvatica, sessile oak (Quercus petraea andTurkey oak (Quercus cerris by comparing stand mean heights over age using data from the forestinventories of 1981 and 2001, and for sessile oak using stand mean height data from permanentsample plots since 1961. Tree growth was found to have accelerated for each species mentioned, withTurkey oak showing the largest acceleration. To study the second issue, stand mean height was relatedto elevation, wich in turn was related to mean annual temperature and precipitation. For theseanalyses, too, data of many thousands of stands in the forest inventory was used. Stand mean heightwas found to increase with decreasing elevation, i.e. with increasing mean annual temperature, foreach of the three species. As the annual precipitation and air humidity decreases with decreasingelevation, it was concluded that increases of mean annual temperature could positively have affectedtree growth in the last few decades. However, this effect is expected to be soon limited by wateravailability.

  9. Trends and Issues in California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard - Learning from Response to Existing Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witcover, J.

    2015-12-01

    emissions in transportation, as other jurisdictions weigh similar climate policies and debate mechanisms and costs and California announced an ambitious target of halving petroleum use by 2030.

  10. Quantifying the Cenozoic marine diatom deposition history: links to the C and Si cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaudie, Johan

    2016-11-01

    Marine planktonic diatoms are, today, among the world's main primary producers as well as the main organic carbon exporter to the deep sea despite the fact that they were a very minor component of the plankton at the beginning of the Cenozoic. They are also the main silica exporter to the deep sea, thus balancing global chemical weathering. This study reviews their global Cenozoic depositional pattern in order to understand the modality and the context of their rise to dominance, but also to understand how diatom evolution affected the Cenozoic functioning of the ocean's biological pump. After two short-lived major abundance peaks near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and in the late Oligocene, diatom abundance in sediments shifted in the middle Miocene to globally higher values which have largely persisted to the modern day. These quantitative findings provide support for the hypothesis according to which diatoms, through their ecological role in the ocean's biological carbon pump, have contributed to the Cenozoic changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide pressure and consequently to changes in the global climate state. Additionally, correlations between diatom abundance peaks and shifts in seawater strontium and osmium isotopic composition hint at a strong control of the silicate weathering on diatom deposition.

  11. The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofstra, Nynke [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Wageningen University, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen (Netherlands); New, Mark; McSweeney, Carol [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-15

    We study the influence of station network density on the distributions and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate Model evaluation. Area averages can only be determined with reasonable accuracy from a sufficiently large number of stations within a grid-box. However, the station network on which E-OBS is based comprises only 2,316 stations, spread unevenly across approximately 18,000 0.22 grid-boxes. Consequently, grid-box data in E-OBS are derived through interpolation of stations up to 500 km distant, with the distance of stations that contribute significantly to any grid-box value increasing in areas with lower station density. Since more dispersed stations have less shared variance, the resultant interpolated values are likely to be over-smoothed, and extreme daily values even more so. We perform an experiment over five E-OBS grid boxes for precipitation and temperature that have a sufficiently dense local station network to enable a reasonable estimate of the area-average. We then create a series of randomly selected station sub-networks ranging in size from four to all stations within the E-OBS interpolation search radii. For each sub-network realisation, we estimate the grid-box average applying the same interpolation methodology as used for E-OBS, and then evaluate the effect of network density on the distribution of daily values, as well as trends in extremes indices. The results show that when fewer stations have been used for the interpolation, both precipitation and temperature are over-smoothed, leading to a strong tendency for interpolated daily values to be reduced relative to the ''true'' area-average. The smoothing is greatest for higher percentiles, and therefore has a disproportionate effect on extremes and any derived extremes indices. For many regions of the

  12. Trends in atmospheric concentrations of weed pollen in the context of recent climate warming in Poznań (Western Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogawski, Paweł; Grewling, Łukasz; Nowak, Małgorzata; Smith, Matt; Jackowiak, Bogdan

    2014-10-01

    A significant increase in summer temperatures has been observed for the period 1996-2011 in Poznań, Poland. The phenological response of four weed taxa, widely represented by anemophilous species ( Artemisia spp., Rumex spp. and Poaceae and Urticaceae species) to this recent climate warming has been analysed in Poznań by examining the variations in the course of airborne pollen seasons. Pollen data were collected by 7-day Hirst-type volumetric trap. Trends in pollen seasons were determined using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, whereas the relationships between meteorological and aerobiological data were established by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Significant trends in pollen data were detected. The duration of pollen seasons of all analysed taxa increased (from +2.0 days/year for Urticaceae to +3.8 days/year for Rumex), which can be attributed to a delay in pollen season end dates rather than earlier start dates. In addition, the intensity of Artemisia pollen seasons significantly decreased and correlates with mean July-September daily minimum temperatures ( r = -0.644, p weed pollen seasons in Poznań, i.e. longer duration and later end dates, might be caused by the recorded increase in summer temperature. This influence was the strongest in relation to Artemisia, which is the taxon that flowers latest in the year. The general lack of significant correlations between Rumex and Urticaceae pollen seasons and spring and/or summer temperature suggests that other factors, e.g. land use practices, could also be partially responsible for the observed shifts in pollen seasons.

  13. Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, R.G.; Gregory, R.T.; Brown, G.F.

    2016-01-01

    The Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia cover about 90,000 km2, one of the largest areas of alkali olivine basalt in the world. These volcanic rocks are in 13 separate fields near the eastern coast of the Red Sea and in the western Arabian Peninsula highlands from Syria southward to the Yemen Arab Republic.

  14. Cenozoic Uplift and Denudation of the EW-trending Range of Northern Altun Mountains:Evidence from Apatite Fission Track Data%阿尔金北缘EW向山脉新生代隆升剥露的裂变径迹证据

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙岳; 陈正乐; 陈柏林; 韩凤彬; 周永贵; 郝瑞祥; 李松彬

    2014-01-01

    This paper mainly presents analytical results of apatite fission-track ages to constrain the uplifting characteristics of EW-trending range of Northern Altun Mountains. 22 rock mass samples were collected from Zhuoerbulake, Dapinggou, and Kaladawan in EW-trending mountain range of Northern Altun Mountains. Fission-track ages for these samples range from (62.6±3.5) to (28.3±1.7) Ma with mean track lengths varying from (13.25±0.15) to (14.29±0.1)μm. According to track lengths and measured age data, the authors carried out the inversion simulation on temperature and age of apatite. The results show a specific regularity of the uplifting of Northern Altun Mountains. In the SN direction, the fission-track ages display a uplifting trend from south to north. In the EW direction, the ages of Dapinggou area in the middle mountains were older than those of other areas and confined to Paleocene and Eocene, and imply an uplifting trend from the middle outwards. The similar thermal history simulation lines of all samples and the single peak of track lengths are considered to have been caused by rapid uplifting during the Paleocene-Eocene (63~28 Ma) and steadiness during the Miocene and later periods in the Northern Altun Mountains. A comparative study of the uplifting and exhumation of the whole Altun area shows that the mountains uplifting and denudation of this region had both global and unique features in Cenozoic: the uplifting of the Altun Mountains had universality and regional features in Paleogene, but uplifting and exhumation existed in NEE-trending and NE-trending mountain ranges in Miocene and subsequent period. It is held that the rapid strike-slip Altun fault has had no influence on uplifting and denudation of EW-trending mountain ranges in Northern Altun Mountains since Miocene.%本文主要利用磷灰石裂变径迹测年技术探讨了阿尔金北缘EW向山脉隆升的时空差异特征。22个岩体分别采自阿尔金北缘EW向山体中的卓尔布

  15. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-06-01

    Executive Summary: The California Climate Action Registry, which was initially established in 2000 and began operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for recording annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of the Registry is to assist California businesses and organizations in their efforts to inventory and document emissions in order to establish a baseline and to document early actions to increase energy efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. The State of California has committed to use its ''best efforts'' to ensure that entities that establish GHG emissions baselines and register their emissions will receive ''appropriate consideration under any future international, federal, or state regulatory scheme relating to greenhouse gas emissions.'' Reporting of GHG emissions involves documentation of both ''direct'' emissions from sources that are under the entity's control and indirect emissions controlled by others. Electricity generated by an off-site power source is consider ed to be an indirect GHG emission and is required to be included in the entity's report. Registry participants include businesses, non-profit organizations, municipalities, state agencies, and other entities. Participants are required to register the GHG emissions of all operations in California, and are encouraged to report nationwide. For the first three years of participation, the Registry only requires the reporting of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, although participants are encouraged to report the remaining five Kyoto Protocol GHGs (CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6). After three years, reporting of all six Kyoto GHG emissions is required. The enabling legislation for the Registry (SB 527) requires total GHG emissions to be registered and requires reporting of ''industry-specific metrics'' once such metrics have been adopted by the Registry. The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National

  16. A high-resolution multi-proxy record of late Cenozoic environment change from central Taklimakan Desert, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Wang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin is the largest desert in Central Asia, and is regarded as one of the main dust sources to the Northern Hemisphere. Late Cenozoic sedimentary sequences with intercalated in-situ aeolian dune sands in this area preserve direct evidence for the Asian desertification. Herein, we report a high-resolution multi-proxy climatic record from the precise magnetostratigraphic dated Hongbaishan section in the central Taklimakan Desert. Our results show that a fundamental climate change, characterized by significant cooling, enhanced aridity, and intensified atmospheric circulation, occurred at 2.8 Ma. Good correlations between climate records in the dust sources and downwind areas suggest a broadly consistent climate evolution of northwestern China during the late Cenozoic, which is probably driven by the uplift of the Tibet Plateau and the Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

  17. Mean Annual Precipitation Explains Spatiotemporal Patterns of Cenozoic Mammal Beta Diversity and Latitudinal Diversity Gradients in North America

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma – present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eig...

  18. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Andrew C.; Glynn, Peter W.; Riegl, Bernhard

    2008-12-01

    Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on

  19. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-06-01

    industry-specific metric for reporting and tracking GHG emissions trends to accurately reflect year to year changes while protecting proprietary data. This GHG intensity index changes while protecting proprietary data. This GHG intensity index would provide Registry participants with a means for demonstrating improvements in their energy and GHG emissions per unit of production without divulging specific values. For the second research area, Berkeley Lab evaluated various methods used to calculate baselines for documentation of energy consumption or GHG emissions reductions, noting those that use industry-specific metrics. Accounting for actions to reduce GHGs can be done on a project-by-project basis or on an entity basis. Establishing project-related baselines for mitigation efforts has been widely discussed in the context of two of the so-called ''flexible mechanisms'' of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol) Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

  20. Twentieth century temperature trends in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CESM-LE climate simulations: Spatial-temporal uncertainties, differences, and their potential sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjiv; Kinter, James L.; Pan, Zaitao; Sheffield, Justin

    2016-08-01

    The twentieth century climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) are compared to assess the models' ability to capture observed near-surface air temperature trends at global, continental, and regional scales. We computed trends by using a nonparametric method and considering long-term persistence in the time series. The role of internal variability is examined by using large ensemble climate simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research model Community Earth System Model (CESM). We computed temperature trends for three periods: the twentieth century, the second half of the twentieth century, and (3) the recent hiatus period to contrast the roles of external forcing and internal variability at various spatial and temporal scales. Both CMIP ensembles show statistically significant warming at global and continental scales during the twentieth century. We found a small but statistically significant difference between CMIP3 (0.57 ± 0.07 °C/century) and CMIP5 (0.47 ± 0.06 °C/century) twentieth century temperature trends, with the CMIP3 estimate being closer to the observations. The spatial structure of long-term temperature trends, and top-of-the atmosphere net radiation trends, suggests that differences in model parameterizations and feedback processes that lead to a smaller net radiative forcing are likely contributing to the differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5. The estimate of internal variability based on the CESM large ensemble spans 24% of the uncertainty in CMIP5 for the twentieth century temperature trends, and 76% for the recent hiatus period, both at global scales, and 43% and almost 100% during the corresponding time periods at regional scales.

  1. Using Carbon Isotopes in Cenozoic Soil Carbonates to Quantify Primary Productivity from Mid-Latitude Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caves, J. K.; Kramer, S. H.; Ibarra, D. E.; Chamberlain, C. P.

    2015-12-01

    The carbon isotope composition of pedogenic carbonates (δ13Ccarb) from paleosols has been extensively used as a proxy to estimate atmospheric pCO2 over the Phanerozoic. However, a number of other factors - including the concentration of plant-respired CO2 and the isotopic composition of both atmospheric and plant-respired carbon - influence the δ13C of pedogenic carbonates. For example, δ13Ccarb records from the mid-latitudes in central Asia and western North America show increasing trends in δ13Ccarb despite decreasing pCO2 during the late Cenozoic, which suggests that other factors play an important role in determining the isotopic composition of pedogenic carbonates. Instead, we suggest that these records are primarily recording changes in primary productivity rather than changes in atmospheric pCO2 and therefore propose a novel use of paleosol carbonate records to understand paleo-ecosystem dynamics. Here, we compile existing paleosol carbonate records, and present three new records from Wyoming, to estimate soil respiration and primary productivity in western North America during the Paleogene and early Neogene. We observe both an overall increase in δ13Ccarb after the early Eocene, and spatially heterogeneous δ13Ccarb values across western US basins. We combine this δ13Ccarb data with compilations of atmospheric pCO2 to estimate soil respiration and plant productivity. The long-term increase in δ13Ccarb indicates a decrease in plant productivity as conditions became more arid across much of the western US, congruent with both records of regional uplift and of global cooling. Furthermore, significant spatial heterogeneity in δ13Ccarb indicates that regional factors, such as the presence of paleolakes and/or local paleotopography may have provided a second-order control on local and regional productivity. Thus, our results provide a first-order estimate linking changes in primary productivity with regional tectonics and global climatic change.

  2. Trend and magnitude of changes in climate variables and reference evapotranspiration over 116-yr period in the Platte River Basin, central Nebraska-USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irmak, Suat; Kabenge, Isa; Skaggs, Kari E.; Mutiibwa, Denis

    2012-02-01

    SummarySome studies that investigate the climate change and hydrologic balance relationships utilize reference (potential) evapotranspiration ( ETref) to either calculate the changes in trends and magnitude of actual ET or to determine changes in atmospheric demand. In such cases, it is important to acquire robust ETref estimates to correctly assess the impact of changes in meteorological variables on atmospheric evaporative demand, hydrologic balances, response of vegetation to climate, and their interactions. Despite its crucial importance, unfortunately, ETref is sometimes poorly addressed in climate change studies as some studies utilize temperature or radiation-based empirical equations due to various reasons (unavailability of climate data to solve combination-based energy balance equations, etc.). Since many climate variables that affect ETref rates have been changing and are expected to change in the future, single-variable equations for estimating the trend in ETref should be avoided due to the inherent nature of the trend passed to ETref from the variable. Here, we showed an integrated approach of practical and robust procedures that are already exist to estimate necessary climate variables [incoming shortwave radiation ( R s), net radiation ( R n), wind speed at 2-m ( u2), relative humidity (RH), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] only from observed maximum and minimum air temperatures ( Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation ( P) data to be used in Penman-Monteith-type combination-based energy balance equations to predict grass-and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration ( ET o and ET r, respectively). We analyzed the trends and magnitudes of change in meteorological variables for a 116-yr period from 1893 to 2008 in the agro-ecosystem-dominated Platte River Basin in central Nebraska, USA. Although we found a significant ( P energy, which is primary driver of ETref. There was approximately 100 mm of increase in precipitation from 1893 to 2008 in the study

  3. Recent advances in the study of Mesozoic-Cenozoic petrified wood from Thailand

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yongdong; ZHANG Wu; ZHENG Shaolin; Pratueng JINTASAKUL; Paul J. GROTE; Nareerat BOONCHAI

    2006-01-01

    Mesozoic to Cenozoic petrified woods are very rich and well preserved in the Khorat Plateau, Northeast Thailand, serving as remarkable material for investigations of tropical vegetation history, paleoclimatic evolution, and paleoenvironmental changes. Our recent field survey and investigations have defined about 50 species of fossil wood assigned to 19 genera and 11 families from Mesozoic to Cenozoic deposits in this region. These woods are ascribed to two groups, gymnosperms and angiosperms. Among them, about 20 species assigned to 7 genera and 5 families are the first reports of the taxa in Thailand. The fossil wood floras indicate that during the late Mesozoic period, the tropical conifer vegetation in Northeast Thailand was dominated by the family Araucariaceae. From the Miocene to Pleistocene, a tropical climate prevailed in this region with perhaps both deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests comprising the vegetation.

  4. Late Cenozoic onset of the latitudinal diversity gradient of North American mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcot, Jonathan D.; Fox, David L.; Niebuhr, Spencer R.

    2016-06-01

    The decline of species richness from equator to pole, or latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), is nearly universal among clades of living organisms, yet whether it was such a pervasive pattern in the geologic past remains uncertain. Here, we calculate the strength of the LDG for terrestrial mammals in North America over the past 65 My, using 27,903 fossil occurrences of Cenozoic terrestrial mammals from western North America downloaded from the Paleobiology Database. Accounting for temporal and spatial variation in sampling, the LDG was substantially weaker than it is today for most of the Cenozoic and the robust modern LDG of North American mammals evolved only over the last 4 My. The strength of the LDG correlates negatively with global temperature, suggesting a role of global climate patterns in the establishment and maintenance of the LDG for North American mammals.

  5. Influence of climate and land use changes on recent trend of soil erosion within the Russian Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golosov, Valentin; Yermolaev, Oleg; Rysin, Ivan; Litvin, Leonid; Kiryukhina, Zoya; Safina, Guzel

    2016-04-01

    flood levels decreased considerably - in particular, in small rivers. This is confirmed by a serious decrease of floodplain sedimentation rates since 1986 compared with the period from 1964 to 1986. As a result of both positive trend of extreme rainfall and negative trend of surface snow melting runoff, the proportion of sediments eroded from cultivated slopes and delivered by surface runoff to river channels decreased considerably during the last few decades in the southern part of the Russian Plain. Complex assessment of different erosion factors changes is undertaken for the different landscape zones of the Russian Plain. Given analysis allows evaluating of recent trend in erosion rates from cultivated lands. The other indicators of sediment redistribution dynamic (gully head retreat rate, floodplain sedimentation) are also used for assessment of soil erosion rate dynamic under land use and climate changes during last 25-30 years.

  6. Did high Neo-Tethys subduction rates contribute to early Cenozoic warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hoareau

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The 58–51 Ma interval was characterized by a long-term increase of global temperatures (+4 to +6 °C up to the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, 52.9–50.7 Ma, the warmest interval of the Cenozoic. It was recently suggested that sustained high atmospheric pCO2, controlling warm early Cenozoic climate, may have been released during Neo-Tethys closure through the subduction of large amounts of pelagic carbonates and their recycling as CO2 at arc volcanoes ("carbonate subduction factory". To analyze the impact of Neo-Tethys closure on early Cenozoic warming, we have modeled the volume of subducted sediments and the amount of CO2 emitted at active arc volcanoes along the northern Tethys margin. The impact of calculated CO2 fluxes on global temperature during the early Cenozoic have then been tested using a climate carbon cycle model (GEOCLIM. We first show that CO2 production may have reached up to 1.55 × 1018 mol Ma−1 specifically during the EECO, ~ 4 to 37 % higher that the modern global volcanic CO2 output, owing to a dramatic India–Asia plate convergence increase. In addition to the background CO2 degassing, the subduction of thick Greater Indian continental margin carbonate sediments at ~ 55–50 Ma may also have led to additional CO2 production of 3.35 × 1018 mol Ma−1 during the EECO, making a total of 85 % of the global volcanic CO2 outgassed. However, climate modelling demonstrates that timing of maximum CO2 release only partially fit with the EECO, and that corresponding maximum pCO2 values (750 ppm and surface warming (+2 °C do not reach values inferred from geochemical proxies, a result consistent with conclusions arise from modelling based on other published CO2 fluxes. These results demonstrate that CO2 derived from decarbonation of Neo-Tethyan lithosphere may have possibly contributed to, but certainly cannot account alone for early Cenozoic warming, including the EECO. Other commonly cited sources of excess CO2 such as

  7. Impact of climate change on the stream flow of lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge- weighted ensemble modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Gain

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.

  8. On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Asensio, Adrián; Marcos, Marta; Tsimplis, Michael N.; Jordà, Gabriel; Feng, Xiangbo; Gomis, Damià

    2016-07-01

    A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

  9. Trend and climatic sensitivity of vegetation phenology in semiarid and arid ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We quantified the temporal trend and climatic sensitivity of vegetation phenology in dryland ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011. Our results indicated that vegetation greenness in the Great Basin increased significantly during the study period, and this positive trend occurred in autumn but not spring and summer. Spatially, increases in vegetation greenness were more apparent in the northwestern, southeastern, and eastern Great Basin but less apparent in the central and southwestern Great Basin. In addition, the start of growing season (SOS was not advanced while the end of growing season (EOS was delayed significantly at a rate of 3.0 days per decade during the study period. The significant delay in EOS and lack of earlier leaf onset caused growing season length (GSL to increase at a rate of 3.0 days per decade during 1982–2011. Interestingly, we found that the variation of mean vegetation greenness in the period of March to November (SSA was not significantly correlated with its mean surface air temperature but was strongly correlated with its total precipitation. Seasonally, the variation of mean vegetation greenness in spring, summer, and autumn was mainly attributable to changes in pre-season precipitation in winter and spring. Nevertheless, climate warming played a strong role in extending GSL that in turn resulted in the upward trend in mean vegetation greenness during 1982–2011. Overall, our results suggested that changes in wintertime and springtime precipitation played a stronger role than temperature in affecting the interannual variability of vegetation greenness while climate warming was mainly responsible for the 30-year upward trend in the magnitudes of mean vegetation greenness in the dryland ecosystems during 1982–2011.

  10. Spatial and temporal trends in summertime climate and water quality indicators in the coastal embayments of Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheuban, J. E.; Williamson, S.; Costa, J. E.; Glover, D. M.; Jakuba, R. W.; McCorkle, D. C.; Neill, C.; Williams, T.; Doney, S. C.

    2016-01-01

    Degradation of coastal ecosystems by eutrophication is largely defined by nitrogen loading from land via surface water and groundwater flows. However, indicators of water quality are highly variable due to a myriad of other drivers, including temperature and precipitation. To evaluate these drivers, we examined spatial and temporal trends in a 22-year record of summer water quality data from 122 stations in 17 embayments within Buzzards Bay, MA (USA), collected through a citizen science monitoring program managed by Buzzards Bay Coalition. To identify spatial patterns across Buzzards Bay's embayments, we used a principle component and factor analysis and found that rotated factor loadings indicated little correlation between inorganic nutrients and organic matter or chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration. Factor scores showed that embayment geomorphology in addition to nutrient loading was a strong driver of water quality, where embayments with surface water inputs showed larger biological impacts than embayments dominated by groundwater influx. A linear regression analysis of annual summertime water quality indicators over time revealed that from 1992 to 2013, most embayments (15 of 17) exhibited an increase in temperature (mean rate of 0.082 ± 0.025 (SD) °C yr-1) and Chl a (mean rate of 0.0171 ± 0.0088 log10 (Chl a; mg m-3) yr-1, equivalent to a 4.0 % increase per year). However, only seven embayments exhibited an increase in total nitrogen (TN) concentration (mean rate 0.32 ± 0.47 (SD) µM yr-1). Average summertime log10(TN) and log10(Chl a) were correlated with an indication that the yield of Chl a per unit total nitrogen increased with time suggesting the estuarine response to TN may have changed because of other stressors such as warming, altered precipitation patterns, or changing light levels. These findings affirm that nitrogen loading and physical aspects of embayments are essential in explaining the observed ecosystem response. However, climate

  11. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Streets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2, nitrate (−0.2 W m−2, organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2, and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2. The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect, mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  12. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  13. Late Cenozoic continuous aridification in the western Qaidam Basin: evidence from sporopollen records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. F. Miao

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Cenozoic climate changes in inner Asia provide a basis for understanding linkages between global cooling, the Tibetan Plateau uplift, and possibly the development of the East Asian monsoon. Based on the compiled palynological results from the western Qaidam Basin, this study reconstructed an 18 Ma record of changing vegetation and paleoclimates since the middle Miocene. Thermophilic taxa percentages were highest between 18 and 14 Ma and decreased after 14 Ma, corresponding closely with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO between 18 and 14 Ma and the following global climatic cooling. After 3.6 Ma, the thermophilic taxa percentages further decreased, showing the inevitable relations with the ice-sheets enlargement in the North Hemisphere. During the same period of time, the increase in xerophytic taxa percentages and decrease in conifers percentages imply aridification in both the basin and surrounding mountains since 18 Ma. These results indicate that global cooling mainly controlled the climate change from a relative warm-wet stage to a cold-dry stage during the late Cenozoic at the western Qaidam Basin, and that the Tibetan Plateau uplift also contributed in contrast to the East Asian summer monsoon.

  14. Incorporating climate trends in the stochastic modeling of extreme minimum air temperature series of Campinas, state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Constantino Blain

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the hypothesis that the presence of climate trends in the annual extreme minimum air temperature series of Campinas (Tminabs; 1891-2010; 22º54'S; 47º05'W; 669 m may no longer be neglected, the aim of the work was to describe the probabilistic structure of this series based on the general extreme value distribution (GEV with parameters estimated as a function of a time covariate. The results obtained by applying the likelihood ratio test and the percentil-percentil and quantil-quantil plots, have indicated that the use of a time-dependent model provides a feasible description of the process under evaluation. In this non-stationary GEV model the parameters of location and scale were expressed as time-dependent functions. The shape parameter remained constant. It was also verified that although this non-stationary model has indicated an average increase in the values of the analyzed data, it does not allow us to conclude that the region of Campinas is now free from frost occurrence since this same model also reveals an increasing trend in the dispersions of the variable under evaluation. However, since the parameters of location and scale of this probabilistic model are significantly conditioned on time, the presence of climate trends in the analyzed time series is proven.

  15. Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change.

  16. Influence of two different geo-climatic zones on the prevalence and time trends of asthma symptoms among Spanish adolescents and schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Marcos, Luis; Batllés-Garrido, José; Blanco-Quirós, Alfredo; García-Hernández, Gloria; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; González-Díaz, Carlos; García-Merino, Águeda; Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; Busquets-Monge, Rosa M.; Morales-Suárez-Varela, María; López-Silvarrey-Varela, Ángel; García-Andoin, Nekane

    2009-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the long-term influence of the climate on the prevalence of asthma. The aim of this study is to establish the influence of geo-climatic conditions on the prevalence of asthma symptoms both in adolescents and schoolchildren, and to discover if this influence is associated with their time trends. Eight centres in Spain performed both ISAAC phases I (1994) and III (2002) in children 13-14 years old. Six of them also surveyed children 6-7 years old. For each age group and phase, about 3,000 children were surveyed per centre. This study examines the prevalence of current wheeze and severe current wheeze in two different geo-climatic zones, coast and plateau, considering their relative humidity and temperature range. In both age groups, the mean asthma prevalence on the coast, for phase I and III, was significantly higher than on the plateau. Living on the plateau was an independent protective factor for current wheeze and severe current wheeze for the two age groups. Within the coastal centres, the increase of the annual relative humidity was a statistical significant risk factor for current wheeze, the same trend existing for current severe wheeze. These effects were independent of the sex and of the phase of the study. The prevalence of asthma and severe asthma symptoms is more frequent on the coast of Spain as compared to the inner plateau. This finding was repeated both in 1994 and in 2002.

  17. Spaceborne estimated long-term trends (1980s - 2013) of albedo and melting season length over the Greenland ice sheet and linkages to climate drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The length of the melting season and surface albedo modulate the amount of meltwater produced over the Greenland ice sheet. The two quantities are intimately connected through a suite of non-linear processes: for example, early melting can reduce the surface albedo (through constructive grain size metamorphism), hence affecting the surface energy balance and further increasing melting. Over the past years, several studies have highlighted increased melting concurring, with a decrease of mean surface albedo over Greenland. However, few studies have examined the duration of the melting season, its implication for surface processes and linkages to climate drivers. Moreover, the majority (if not all) of the studies assessing albedo trends from spaceborne data over Greenland have focused on the last decade or so (2000 - 2013) because they use data collected over the same period by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Here, we evaluate and synthesize long-term trends in the length of the melting season (1979 - 2013) derived from spaceborne microwave observations together with surface albedo trends for the period 1982 - 2013 using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To our knowledge, this is the first time that trends in Greenland albedo and melt season length are discussed for the periods considered in this study. Our results point to a lengthening of the melting season as a consequence of earlier melt onset and later refreeze and to a decrease of mean albedo (1982 - 2013) over the Greenland ice sheet, with trends being spatially variable. To account for this spatial variability, the results of an analysis at regional scales over 12 different regions (defined by elevation and drainage systems) are also reported. The robustness of the results is evaluated by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained from both AVHRR and MODIS when overlapping data are available (2000 - 2013). Lastly, because large

  18. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, R W; Harner, T; Fyfe, J

    2005-04-15

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series.

  19. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, R.W. [Institute of Ocean Sciences, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, P.O. Box 6000, Sydney, BC (Canada); Harner, T. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON (Canada); Fyfe, J. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, 3964 Gordon Head Road, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2005-04-15

    possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series.

  20. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica: predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron P Davis

    Full Text Available Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080. The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1 identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050, representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2 identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3 provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  1. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Aaron P; Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana; Moat, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations

  2. Trans- and Interdisciplinarity in K-14 Climate Change Education: Trends Emerging from Recent Reports by the National Research Council

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, M.

    2012-12-01

    A recent report by the National Research Council placed climate change or climate science education deeply into the curriculum of K-12 science education in the US (A Framework for K-12 Science Education). The NRC Framework is currently being translated into the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), an effort by 26 states, representing 57% of the US school-aged population, under the leadership of the educational nonprofit Achieve. A first draft version of the NGSS was made available to public audiences in June of 2012, and a revised draft will be available for a second round of reviews in later November of 2012; the final version of the NGSS which will likely feature climate change and climate science as part of Earth Systems Science, but also embedded in other areas of the science curriculum, is expected to be released in the spring of 2013. It has already become apparent, though, that successful implementation of the new standards down into effective classroom-based instruction will require a deep analysis of current and likely future barriers and opportunities for engaging K-14 students in climate change education. A recently released report on an NRC workshop conducted in 2011 summarizes these discussions (Climate Change Education in Formal Settings, K-14: A Workshop Summary). The proceedings of the workshop highlight the need to think in trans- or interdisciplinary ways about educating children in primary, secondary and early post-secondary education. This report builds on a 2010 workshop that addressed how to best reach general audiences on the issue of climate change education, particularly if the desired outcome is seen as building adaptive capacity in children and adults alike. This workshop was summarized in a report entitled Climate Change Education: Goals, Audiences, and Strategies. Opportunities for engaging students in trans- or interdisciplinary exploration of climate science or climate change-related topics, while available to K-12 students

  3. Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Michael; Ashton, Andrew; Raymo, Maureen E.; Perron, J. Taylor

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

  4. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  5. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  6. 气候谈判集团的演化过程与演变趋势分析%Evolution Process and Trend of Climate Negotiation Groups

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    牟初夫; 王礼茂

    2015-01-01

    首先对气候谈判集团的发展和演变过程进行了系统的分析,并根据不同阶段的特征,将其演化过程划分为四个阶段。接着从政治干预、科学认知和利益驱动三个方面对影响气候谈判集团成员立场的因素进行了归纳,在此基础上对欧盟、伞形集团、七十七国集团+中国的谈判立场未来演变趋势进行了分析,并得出了以下结论:1)现有的三大气候谈判集团将呈现不同的分化趋势;2)未来共同的利益驱动将是决定今后各国气候谈判立场和气候谈判集团重组的关键;3)区域和跨区域合作组织开始在气候合作领域发挥作用,对气候谈判集团的演化产生影响。%This study systematically analyzed the development and evolution process of climate negotiation groups, and divided its evolution process into four stages according to the characteristics of different stages. Then we summarized the factors that influenced the standpoint of members of climate negotiation groups from three aspects——political intervention, science cognition and driving interest. On the basis of the above, we analyzed the future evolution trend of the European Union, the Umbrella Group and the Group of 77 plus China and drew the following conclusions: (1) the existing three Climate negotiation groups will show differentiated trends; (2) mutual interests will be the key to the future recombination of climate negotiation groups; (3) regional and cross-regional cooperation organizations begin to play a role in climate cooperation and influence the evolution of climate negotiation groups.

  7. Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Fraser

    Full Text Available Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present, and (ii climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

  8. Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Danielle; Hassall, Christopher; Gorelick, Root; Rybczynski, Natalia

    2014-01-01

    Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity) is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year) and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs) increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

  9. Mesozoic-Cenozoic Basin Features and Evolution of Southeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The Late Triassic to Paleogene (T3-E) basin occupies an area of 143100 km2, being the sixth area of the whole of SE China; the total area of synchronous granitoid is about 127300 km2; it provides a key for understanding the tectonic evolution of South China. From a new 1:1500000 geological map of the Mesozoic-Cenozoic basins of SE China, combined with analysis of geometrical and petrological features, some new insights of basin tectonics are obtained. Advances include petrotectonic assemblages,basin classification of geodynamics, geometric features, relations of basin and range. According to basin-forming geodynamical mechanisms, the Mesozoic-Cenozoic basin of SE China can be divided into three types, namely: 1) para-foreland basin formed from Late Triassic to Early Jurassic (T3-J1)under compressional conditions; 2) rift basins formed during the Middle Jurassic (J2) under a strongly extensional setting; and 3) a faulted depression formed during Early Cretaceous to Paleogene (K1-E)under back-arc extension action. From the rock assemblages of the basin, the faulted depression can be subdivided into a volcanic-sedimentary type formed mainly during the Early Cretaceous (K1) and a red-bed type formed from Late Cretaceous to Paleogene (K2-E). Statistical data suggest that the area of all para-foreland basins (T3-J1) is 15120 km2, one of rift basins (J2) occupies 4640 km2, and all faulted depressions equal to 124330 km2 including the K2-E red-bed basins of 37850 km2. The Early Mesozoic(T3-J1) basin and granite were mostly co-generated under a post-collision compression background,while the basins from Middle Jurassic to Paleogene (J2-E) were mainly constrained by regional extensional tectonics. Three geological and geographical zones were surveyed, namely: 1) the Wuyishan separating zone of paleogeography and climate from Middle Jurassic to Tertiary; 2) the Middle Jurassic rift zone; and 3) the Ganjiang separating zone of Late Mesozoic volcanism. Three types of basin

  10. Mesozoic and Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Longmenshan fault belt

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG; ErChie

    2009-01-01

    ,bringing a huge volume of sediments.The oldest alluvial deposits within the Chengdu Plain are estimated to be Late Miocene(8―13 Ma).We suggest that the flooding that transported the course-grained sediments into the Chengdu Plain occurred in late Cenozoic,resulted from both the climate and the historical earthquakes similar to the May 12 earthquake.Estimated age of the sedi-ments related to earthquakes and coeval shortening across the Chengdu Plain indicate that the eastern margin of the plateau became seismically and tectonically active in Late Miocene.

  11. Mesozoic and Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Longmenshan fault belt

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG ErChie; MENG QingRen

    2009-01-01

    into the Chengdu Plain, bringing a huge volume of sediments. The oldest alluvial deposits within the Chengdu Plain are estimated to be Late Miocene (8-13 Ma). We suggest that the flooding that transported the course-grained sediments into the Chengdu Plain occurred in late Cenozoic, resulted from both the climate and the historical earthquakes similar to the May 12 earthquake. Estimated age of the sedi-ments related to earthquakes and coeval shortening across the Chengdu Plain indicate that the eastern margin of the plateau became seismically and tectonically active in Late Miocene.

  12. Analyzing global trends of different cloud types and their potential impacts on climate by using the ISCCP D2 dataset

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Shouguo; SHI Guangyu; ZHAO Chunsheng

    2004-01-01

    The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 dataset is used to study the global distribution of low, middle and high cloud amounts and their trends of 1983-2001. Evidences have shown that global warming has accelerated over the past 20 a and the 1990s was the warmest decade in the instrumental records since 1861. Trends of various clouds amounts over this period are analyzed by employing the linear regression method. The results show that global mean total cloud amounts, in general,have tended to reduce over the past 20 a. But there are slightly increasing by about 2% before 1987 and decreasing by about 4% since then. Cloudiness trends of both low and high clouds decrease while increase for the middle cloud.And there exist remarkable discrepancies in different regions.The preliminary analyses suggest that it is likely that the cloud change occurring over the past 20 a is a positive feedback to global warming.

  13. Cenozoic rift formation in the northern Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, P.; Burke, K.

    1984-01-01

    Rifts form in many different tectonic environments where the lithosphere is put into extension. An outline is provided of the distribution, orientation, and relative ages of 16 Cenozoic rifts along the northern edge of the Caribbean plate and it is suggested that these structures formed successively by localized extension as the Caribbean plate moved eastward past a continental promontory of North America. Evidence leading to this conclusion includes (1) recognition that the rifts become progressively younger westward; (2) a two-phase subsidence history in a rift exposed by upthrusting in Jamaica; (3) the absence of rifts east of Jamaica; and (4) the observation that removal of 1400 km of strike-slip displacement on the Cayman Trough fault system places the Paleogene rifts of Jamaica in an active area of extension south of Yucatan where the rifts of Honduras and Guatemala are forming today.

  14. The Cenozoic Volcanoes in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Jiaqi; HAN Jingtai; GUO Zhengfu

    2002-01-01

    There are more than 600 Cenozoic volcanic cones and craters with abeut 50 000 km2of lava flows in northeast China, which formed many volcanic clusters and shown the features of the continental rift - type volcanoes. Most volcanic activities in this area, especially in the east part of Songliao graben, were usually controlled by rifts and faults with the main direction of NE / NNE in parallel and become younger from the central graben towards its both sides, especially to the east continental margin. It is revealed that the volcanism occurred in northeast China was as strong as that occurred in Japan during the Miocene and the Quaternary. The Quaternary basalt that is usually distributed along river valley is called "valley basalt"while Neogene basalt usually distributed in the top of mounts is called "high position basalt". These volcanoes and volcanic rocks are usually composed of alkaline basalts with ultramafic inclusions, except Changbaishan volcano that is built by trachyte and pantellerite.

  15. CENOZOIC VOLCANISM AND GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG; Xi-kui

    2001-01-01

    Ke-qin, 1997. Paleoclimatic and environmental change since 2000a B. P. recorded in ice Core[J]. The Front of Ceo-science, 4(1): 95-100.(in Chiniese)[13]ZHANG Zhen-ke, WU Rui-jin, WANG Su-min, 1998. Paleoenvironmeal evolution during historic time reflected by frequency susceptibility of the lacustrine sediment in Daihai[J]. Geography Reaserch. 17(3) :297-300. (in Chinese)[14]ZHANG Pi-yuan, 1996. Climatic Changes During Historic Time in China[J]. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 434-435. (in Chinese)[15]ZHANG Pi-yuan, GE Quan-sheng, 1997. The stage and abrupt ness of climatic evolution[J]. The Front of Geo-science, 4(1):122-126. (in Chinese)[16]ZHONG Wei, XIONG Hei-gang, Tashplati etal., 1998a. The preliminary study on the Spore-pollen combination of the Tagele section in Cele oasis[J]. Arid Zone Research, 15 (3):14-17. (in Chinese)[17]ZHONG Wei, XIONG Hei-gang, 1998b. Preliminary study on paleoclimatic evolution since about 12ka B.P. in Bosten Lake, southern Xinjiang, China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Enviorment, 12(3) :28-35. (in Chinese)[18]ZHU Ke-zhen. 1973, Preliminary study of climatic changes since about 5000 years in China[J]. Science in China, (2):291-296. (in Chinese)[19]CHEN Mo-xiang, WANG Ji-yang, DENG Xiao, 1994. Geothermal Resources in China[M] . Beijing: Science Press, 139 -159. (in Chinese)[20]CHEN Wen-ji, LI Da-ming, LI Qi et al. , 1992. Chronology and geochemistry of basalts in Lower Liaohe Basin[A] . In: LIU Ruo-xin. Chronology and Geochemistry of Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks in China [C] . Beijing: Seismological Press, 44-80. (in Chinese)[21]E Mo-lan, ZHAO Da-sheng, 1987. Cenozoic Basalts and Deep Source Rock Inclusions[M] . Beijing: Science Press, 86-132. (in Chinese)[22]LIU Jia-qi, 1987. Research on chronology of Cenozoic volcanic rocks in Northeast China[J]. Acta Petrologica Sinica, 3(4):21-31. (in Chinese)[23]MACHIDA H, ARAI F, 1983. Extensive ash falls in and around the Sea of Japan

  16. A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hateren, J.H. van

    2013-01-01

    A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted

  17. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate

  18. Mechanisms of Cenozoic deformation in the Bohai Basin, Northeast China: Physical modelling and discussions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU; Jianxun; ZHOU; Jiansheng

    2006-01-01

    The Bohai Basin is a Cenozoic petroliferous extensional basin in China and has apparent geometrical and kinematic similarities with the other Meso-Cenozoic extensional basins located along the eastern margin of Eurasian Plate. However, the deformation mechanisms of the basin are still in dispute. Physcial modelling referring to the Huanghua Depression, located in the central part of the Bohai Basin was conducted employing four sets of planar sandbox experimental models with different extension directions. Only experimental results of the model with N-S extension show good structural similarity with the depression. The results also indicate that complex variations of fault strike in a rift basin are not necessarily the results of complex kinematic mechanisms or polyphase deformation. Based on comparison of experimental results with the actual structures and the good structural similarity between Huanghua Depression and the whole Bohai Basin, it is concluded that the Bohai Basin was formed by the N-S extension. The strike slip deformation along the NNE-trending border faults of the basin resulted from the N-S extension and played the role of lateral transformation for the N-S extension. In addition, according to the apparent geometrical and kinematic similarities among the Bohai Basin and other Meso-Cenozoic extensional basins located along the eastern margin of the Eurasian Plate, it is proposed that: (1) this "N-S extension" model provides a better kinematic interpretation for the formation of Bohai Basin and the other adjacent basins located along the eastern margin of the Eurasian Plate; and (2) the N-S extension was probably the effect of the "slab window" formed by the subduction of the nearly E-W trending oceanic ridge between the Kula and Pacific Plates. The "slab window" effect can also provide reasonable explanations for the phenomena that initial rifting ages of basins become progressively younger westwards along the eastern margin of the Eurasian Plate

  19. Evaluation of Inter-annual Variability and Trends of Cloud Liquid Water Path in Climate Models Using A Multi-decadal Record of Passive Microwave Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manaster, Andrew

    Long term satellite records of cloud changes have only been available for the past several decades and have just recently been used to diagnose cloud-climate feedbacks. However, due to issues with satellite drift, calibration, and other artifacts, the validity of these cloud changes has been called into question. It is therefore pertinent that we look for other observational datasets that can help to diagnose changes in variables relevant to cloud-radiation feedbacks. One such dataset is the Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP), which blends cloud liquid water path (LWP) observations from 12 different passive microwave sensors over the past 27 years. In this study, observed LWP trends from the MAC-LWP dataset are compared to LWP trends from 16 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) in order to assess how well the models capture these trends and thus related radiative forcing variables (e.g., cloud radiative forcing). (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  20. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, bu...

  1. Modern and Cenozoic records of magnesium behaviour from foraminiferal Mg isotopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. E. Pogge von Strandmann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Magnesium is an element critically involved in the carbon cycle, because weathering of Ca–Mg silicates removes atmospheric CO2 into rivers, and formation of Ca–Mg carbonates in the oceans removes carbon from the ocean–atmosphere system. Hence the Mg cycle holds the potential to provide valuable insights into Cenozoic climate-system history, and the shift during this time from a greenhouse to icehouse state. We present Mg isotope ratios for the past 40 Myr using planktic foraminifers as an archive. Modern foraminifera, which discriminate against elemental and isotopically heavy Mg during calcification, show no correlation between the Mg isotope composition (δ26Mg and temperature, Mg / Ca or other parameters such as carbonate saturation (Δ CO3. However, inter-species isotopic differences imply that only well-calibrated single species should be used for reconstruction of past seawater. Seawater δ26Mg inferred from the foraminiferal record decreased from ~ 0‰ at 15 Ma, to −0.83‰ at the present day, which coincides with increases in seawater lithium and oxygen isotope ratios. It strongly suggests that neither Mg concentrations nor isotope ratios are at steady-state in modern oceans, given its ~ 10 Myr residence time. From these data, we have developed a dynamic box model to understand and constrain changes in Mg sources to the oceans (rivers and Mg sinks (dolomitisation and hydrothermal alteration. Our estimates of seawater Mg concentrations through time are similar to those independently determined by pore waters and fluid inclusions. Modelling suggests that dolomite formation and the riverine Mg flux are the primary controls on the δ26Mg of seawater, while hydrothermal Mg removal and the δ26Mg of rivers are more minor controls. Using riverine flux and isotope ratios inferred from the 87Sr / 86Sr record, the modelled Mg removal by dolomite formation shows minima in the Oligocene and at the present day (with decreasing trends from 15

  2. Modern and Cenozoic records of seawater magnesium from foraminiferal Mg isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogge von Strandmann, P. A. E.; Forshaw, J.; Schmidt, D. N.

    2014-09-01

    Magnesium is an element critically involved in the carbon cycle, because weathering of Ca-Mg silicates removes atmospheric CO2 into rivers, and formation of Ca-Mg carbonates in the oceans removes carbon from the ocean-atmosphere system. Hence the Mg cycle holds the potential to provide valuable insights into Cenozoic climate-system history, and the shift during this time from a greenhouse to icehouse state. We present Mg isotope ratios for the past 40 Myr using planktic foraminifers as an archive. Modern foraminifera, which discriminate against elemental and isotopically heavy Mg during calcification, show no correlation between the Mg isotope composition (δ26Mg, relative to DSM-3) and temperature, Mg / Ca or other parameters such as carbonate saturation (ΔCO3). However, inter-species isotopic differences imply that only well-calibrated single species should be used for reconstruction of past seawater. Seawater δ26Mg inferred from the foraminiferal record decreased from ~0‰ at 15 Ma, to -0.83‰ at the present day, which coincides with increases in seawater lithium and oxygen isotope ratios. It strongly suggests that neither Mg concentrations nor isotope ratios are at steady state in modern oceans, given its ~10 Myr residence time. From these data, we have developed a dynamic box model to understand and constrain changes in Mg sources to the oceans (rivers) and Mg sinks (dolomitisation and hydrothermal alteration). Our estimates of seawater Mg concentrations through time are similar to those independently determined by pore waters and fluid inclusions. Modelling suggests that dolomite formation and the riverine Mg flux are the primary controls on the δ26Mg of seawater, while hydrothermal Mg removal and the δ26Mg of rivers are more minor controls. Using Mg riverine flux and isotope ratios inferred from the 87Sr / 86Sr record, the modelled Mg removal by dolomite formation shows minima in the Oligocene and at the present day (with decreasing trends from 15 Ma

  3. Trends in the breeding population of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil O'B Lyver

    Full Text Available Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28% of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island. The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni, may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  4. Trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyver, Phil O'B; Barron, Mandy; Barton, Kerry J; Ainley, David G; Pollard, Annie; Gordon, Shulamit; McNeill, Stephen; Ballard, Grant; Wilson, Peter R

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  5. The influence of DOC trends on light climate and periphyton biomass in the Ganga River, Varanasi, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Usha

    2013-01-01

    Investigations on periphyton along an eutrophication gradient (NO(3)(-) = 0.23-0.96 mg L(-1); PO(4)(-3) = 0.16-0.86 mg L(-1)) of Ganga River indicated that benthic algal biomass decreased with increasing concentrations of nutrients and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Periphyton biomass showed negative relationship (R(2) = 0.98; p climate and consequently the fate of benthic primary producers in Ganga River.

  6. Effects of climatic changes and urban air pollution on the rising trends of respiratory allergy and asthma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D'Amato Gennaro

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Over the past two decades there has been increasing interest in studies regarding effects on human health of climate changes and urban air pollution. Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem and there are several observations about the role of urbanization, with its high levels of vehicle emissions and other pollutants, and westernized lifestyle with respect to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases observed in most industrialized countries. There is also evidence that asthmatic subjects are at increased risk of developing exacerbations of bronchial obstruction with exposure to gaseous (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and particulate inhalable components of air pollution. A change in the genetic predisposition is an unlikely cause of the increasing frequency in allergic diseases because genetic changes in a population require several generations. Consequently, environmental factors such as climate change and indoor and outdoor air pollution may contribute to explain the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma. Since concentrations of airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of allergic respiratory diseases and bronchial asthma. Scientific societies such as the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, European Respiratory Society and the World Allergy Organization have set up committees and task forces to produce documents to focalize attention on this topic, calling for prevention measures.

  7. Significant Phylogenetic Signal and Climate-Related Trends in Leaf Caloric Value from Tropical to Cold-Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guangyan; Li, Ying; Zhang, Jiahui; Li, Meiling; Hou, Jihua; He, Nianpeng

    2016-11-18

    Leaf caloric value (LCV) is a useful index to represent the conversion efficiency of leaves for solar energy. We investigated the spatial pattern of LCV and explored the factors (phylogeny, climate, and soil) that influence them at a large scale by determining LCV standardized by leaf area in 920 plant species from nine forest communities along the 3700 km North-South Transect of Eastern China. LCV ranged from 0.024 to 1.056 kJ cm(-2) with an average of 0.151 kJ cm(-2). LCV declined linearly with increasing latitude along the transect. Altogether, 57.29% of the total variation in LCV was explained by phylogenetic group (44.03% of variation), climate (1.27%), soil (0.02%) and their interacting effects. Significant phylogenetic signals in LCV were observed not only within forest communities but also across the whole transect. This phylogenetic signal was higher at higher latitudes, reflecting latitudinal change in the species composition of forest communities from complex to simple. We inferred that climate influences the spatial pattern of LCV through directly regulating the species composition of plant communities, since most plant species might tolerate only a limited temperature range. Our findings provide new insights into the adaptive mechanisms in plant traits in future studies.

  8. Vital Effects in Coccolith Calcite: Cenozoic PCO2 Thresholds in the Development of Carbon Acquisition Strategies in Coccolithophores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, C. T.; Isensee, K.; Stoll, H. M.

    2011-12-01

    Coccolithophores are a unique group of oceanic calcifying phytoplankton that are affected by and feed back into both the organic (via photosynthetic carbon fixation) and inorganic (via calcification) carbon cycles. Their high sensitivity to changes in carbon chemistry and their long fossil record in oceanic sediments provide us with the opportunity to study the evolution of these carbon cycle interactions through time. Deviations from equilibrium during biogenic calcification can result from kinetic or metabolic ('vital') effects. The influence of changing atmospheric partial pressures of carbon dioxide (pCO2) throughout the Cenozoic was likely crucial in driving the development of different carbon acquisition strategies (CAS) that cause the vital effects seen in modern coccolithophores. Here we present new laboratory culture and fossil data examining vital effects in coccolithophores over a range of CO2 concentrations. ODP Site 999 stable isotope data from size-separated coccolith fractions dominated by different species over the Plio-Pleistocene climate transition (PPT) (3.5 to 2 Ma) show a persistent 2 % range of interspecific vital effects in oxygen and carbon isotopes. In contrast, isotope data from extremely well preserved Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) size-separated coccoliths (ODP Site 174AX, Bass River) suggest an absence of interpecific vital effects within the greenhouse boundary condtions of the PETM, suggesting similar CAS among species. Our culture and PPT results indicate a clear positive trend between cell size and C and O isotopic enrichment in coccolith carbonate, likely reflecting different CAS. The insensitivity of coccolith vital effects to pCO2 changes over the range inferred for the PPT (around 400 to 280 ppm) in combination with experimental data imply that the pCO2 threshold that drove the diversification of CAS in coccolithophores was crossed after the PETM but at significantly higher pCO2 than was in place during the PPT.

  9. Decoupled taxonomic radiation and ecological expansion of open-habitat grasses in the Cenozoic of North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strömberg, Caroline A E

    2005-08-23

    Because of a dearth of Cenozoic grass fossils, the timing of the taxonomic diversification of modern subclades within the grass family (Poaceae) and the rise to ecological dominance of open-habitat grasses remain obscure. Here, I present data from 99 Eocene to Miocene phytolith assemblages from the North American continental interior (Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Montana/Idaho), constituting the only high-resolution mid-Cenozoic record of grasses. Analyses of these assemblages show that open-habitat grasses had undergone considerable taxonomic diversification by the earliest Oligocene (34 million years ago) but that they did not become ecologically dominant in North America until 7-11 million years later (Late Oligocene or Early Miocene). This pattern of decoupling suggests that environmental changes (e.g., climate changes), rather than taxonomic radiations within Poaceae, provided the key opportunity for open-habitat grasses to expand in North America.

  10. Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

    2017-02-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

  11. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2011-12-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

  12. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate

  13. Pliocene-Early Pleistocene climatic trends in the Italian Peninsula based on stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of rhinoceros and gomphothere tooth enamel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Péter; Kocsis, László; Vennemann, Torsten; Pandolfi, Luca; Kovács, János; Martinetto, Edoardo; Demény, Attila

    2017-02-01

    The Pliocene and Early Pleistocene (5.2-1 Ma) palaeoclimate for localities in Italy is evaluated using stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of tooth enamel of fossil specimens from Rhinocerotidae (Stephanorhinus sp.) and Gomphotheriidae (Anancus sp.) taxa. Carbon isotope composition was measured in the structural carbonate (δ13C), while oxygen isotope values were determined both in the structural carbonate (δ18OCO3) and the phosphate (δ18OPO4) of bioapatite. The δ13CCO3 values indicate that the taxa were grazers-browsers of a pure C3 vegetation. Low δ13CCO3 values for Central and North Italy indicate a humid climate with woodlands and forest cover in the Pliocene. For northern localities the δ13C values increase between MN16a and MNQ16b biozones most likely linked to the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation at 2.7 Ma after the "Mid-Pliocene Warm Period". For Central Italy the values have a wide range with a long term increasing trend in the Early Pleistocene, indicating more arid climate and/or more open vegetation. Overall, the δ18OPO4 values in Central Italy change together with the δ13CCO3 values and are taken to reflect the warmer/wetter interglacials and cooler/more arid glacial phases. The δ18OPO4 values in North Italy are lower than those in Central Italy and show no clear temporal trend. One explanation for the low values especially in MN14-15 biozone is that these δ18OPO4 values do not reflect entirely the isotopic composition of local precipitation but river waters from the Alps with 18O-depleted isotopic compositions or a N-S directed rain-shadow effect on the precipitation. In general the new isotope data agree well with palaeoclimate reconstructions based on palynological and other proxies.

  14. An elevational trend of body size variation in a cold-climate agamid lizard,Phrynocephalus theobaldi

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuanting JIN; Pinghu LIAO

    2015-01-01

    The pattern that many ectotherms have smaller body sizes in cold environments follows the converse to Bergmann’s rule and is most frequently found in lizards. Allen’s rule predicts animals from warm climates usually have longer tails and limbs, while these traits tend to be shorter in individuals from cold climates. We examined body size variation in an endemic Chinese lizardPhrynocephalus theobaldi along a broad elevational gradient (3,600–5,000 m on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau). Female body size showed a U-shaped cline, decreasing with increased elevation within the range 3,600–4,200 m, but increasing at eleva-tions > 4200 m. Male body size continued to increase with increasing elevations. Both sexes showed an increased pattern of ex-tremity length with elevation that does not conform to Allen’s rule. Limb length and tail length increased along the elevational gradients. In terms of color pattern, an abdominal black speckled area appears at elevations >4,200 m. This trait increases in size with increased elevation. Unlike most studies, our results indicated that annual sunshine hours corresponding to the activity pe-riod of the lizards could play an important role on the positive body size cline in environments at very high elevations > 4200 m [Current Zoology 61 (3): 444–453, 2015].

  15. Drought trends based on the VCI and its correlation with climate factors in the agricultural areas of China from 1982 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Xiaojin; Liang, Liang; Shen, Qiu; Sun, Qin; Zhang, Lianpeng; Liu, Zhixiao; Zhao, Shuhe; Qin, Zhihao

    2016-11-01

    Drought is a type of natural disaster that has the most significant impacts on agriculture. Regional drought monitoring based on remote sensing has become popular due to the development of remote sensing technology. In this study, vegetation condition index (VCI) data recorded from 1982 to 2010 in agricultural areas of China were obtained from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data, and the temporal and spatial variations in each drought were analyzed. The relationships between drought and climate factors were also analyzed. The results showed that from 1982 to 2010, the agricultural areas that experienced frequent and severe droughts were mainly concentrated in the northwestern areas and Huang-Huai Plain. Moreover, the VCI increased in the majority of agricultural areas, indicating that the drought frequency decreased over time, and the decreasing trend in the southern region was more notable than that in the northern region. A correlation analysis showed that temperature and wind velocity were the main factors that influenced drought in the agricultural areas of China. From a regional perspective, excluding precipitation, the climate factors had various effects on drought in different regions. However, the correlation between the VCI and precipitation was low, possibly due to the widespread use of artificial irrigation technology, which reduces the reliance of agricultural areas on precipitation.

  16. Review on International Strategies and Trends for Adaptation to Climate Change%国际气候变化适应战略与态势分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    葛全胜; 曲建升; 曾静静; 方修琦

    2009-01-01

    Based on a review of international adapting initiatives to climate change,the tracks and trends of international adaptation policies,especially of UNFCCC,are introduced.The national adaptation strategies of Australia,India,Russia,Japan,USA,Canada,and some main countries of Europe are analyzed.It is concluded that key adaptation options include the measures to deal with extreme climate events,natural disasters,fresh water supply,infrastructure,food safety,and ail efficient coordination mechanism.%在对国际气候变化适应行动进行回顾和展望的基础上,介绍了以为主的国际气候变化适应政策的发展轨迹和趋势,分析了欧盟主要国家、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大,日本、俄罗斯和印度等国所采取的气候变化适应战略,总结出国际气候变化适应行动选择主要集中在极端气候事件与自然灾害,安全的淡水供应,基础设施建设、粮食安全,以及应对气候变化的协调机制等方面.

  17. Cenozoic stratigraphy and geologic history of the Tucson Basin, Pima County, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, S.R.

    1987-01-01

    This report was prepared as part of a geohydrologic study of the Tucson basin conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the city of Tucson. Geologic data from more than 500 water supply and test wells were analyzed to define characteristics of the basin sediments that may affect the potential for land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawal. The Tucson basin is a structural depression within the Basin and Range physiographic province. The basin is 1,000 sq mi in units area and trends north to northwest. Three Cenozoic stratigraphic unit--the Pantano Formation of Oligocene age, the Tinaja beds (informal usage) of Miocene and Pliocene age, and the Fort Lowell Formation of Pleistocene age--fill the basin. The Tinaja beds include lower, middle, and upper unconformable units. A thin veneer of stream alluvium of late Quaternary age overlies the Fort Lowell Formation. The Pantano Formation and the lower Tinaja beds accumulated during a time of widespread continental sedimentation, volcanism, plutonism, uplift, and complex faulting and tilting of rock units that began during the Oligocene and continued until the middle Miocene. Overlying sediments of the middle and upper Tinaja beds were deposited in response to two subsequent episodes of post-12-million-year block faulting, the latter of which was accompanied by renewed uplift. The Fort Lowell Formation accumulated during the Quaternary development of modern through-flowing the maturation of the drainage. The composite Cenozoic stratigraphic section of the Tucson basin is at least 20,000 ft thick. The steeply tilted to flat-lying section is composed of indurated to unconsolidated clastic sediments, evaporites, and volcanic rocks that are lithologically and structurally complex. The lithology and structures of the section was greatly affected by the uplift and exhumation of adjacent metamorphic core-complex rocks. Similar Cenozoic geologic relations have been identified in other parts of southern

  18. Considering Global Climate Change from the Trend of Sandstorms in China%从沙尘暴变化趋势看全球气候变化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丰华; 刘植; 李平原; 刘秀铭; 吕镔; 赵国永; 马明明; 郭晖; 陈渠

    2012-01-01

    Receiving growing concerns in recent years,global climate change has grown from a scientific and environmental issue into an international political issue,which will be related to the long-term developments of international community.This paper summarizes trends and regional differences of dust storm frequency in recent China,and discusses responding mechanism of the frequency to global climate change.The study finds a negative correlation between the dust storm frequency in China and the change of global temperature.Overall,the frequency of dust storms in China decreases in recent years,going with an increasing trend of temperature in China,which is possibly one of the secondary fluctuations in the general trend of global cooling.%近年来人们对全球气候变化的问题尤为关注,因为,如今气候变化不仅仅是科学问题、环境问题,还是一个国际政治问题、经济问题,事关社会的长远发展.本研究以沙尘暴为切入点,在前人研究的基础上,总结了近年来沙尘暴及沙尘天气发生频率的变化趋势及其地域性差异,并进一步讨论了沙尘暴发生频率变化趋势与温度变化的响应机制,认为沙尘暴发生频率变化与气温变化呈负相关关系.近年来中国沙尘暴发生频率呈整体下降趋势,表明近年来中国气温有整体升高的趋势,这可能是全球变冷大趋势中的次级波动.

  19. Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

    2012-12-01

    The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a

  20. Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, C; Hedenus, F; Wirsenius, S; Sonesson, U

    2013-02-01

    To analyse trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from production and consumption of animal products in Sweden, life cycle emissions were calculated for the average production of pork, chicken meat, beef, dairy and eggs in 1990 and 2005. The calculated average emissions were used together with food consumption statistics and literature data on imported products to estimate trends in per capita emissions from animal food consumption. Total life cycle emissions from the Swedish livestock production were around 8.5 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in 1990 and emissions decreased to 7.3 Mt CO2e in 2005 (14% reduction). Around two-thirds of the emission cut was explained by more efficient production (less GHG emission per product unit) and one-third was due to a reduced animal production. The average GHG emissions per product unit until the farm-gate were reduced by 20% for dairy, 15% for pork and 23% for chicken meat, unchanged for eggs and increased by 10% for beef. A larger share of the average beef was produced from suckler cows in cow-calf systems in 2005 due to the decreasing dairy cow herd, which explains the increased emissions for the average beef in 2005. The overall emission cuts from the livestock sector were a result of several measures taken in farm production, for example increased milk yield per cow, lowered use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in grasslands, reduced losses of ammonia from manure and a switch to biofuels for heating in chicken houses. In contrast to production, total GHG emissions from the Swedish consumption of animal products increased by around 22% between 1990 and 2005. This was explained by strong growth in meat consumption based mainly on imports, where growth in beef consumption especially was responsible for most emission increase over the 15-year period. Swedish GHG emissions caused by consumption of animal products reached around 1.1 t CO2e per capita in 2005. The emission cuts necessary for meeting a global temperature

  1. Flash Floods and Storm-Triggered Debris Avalanches in the Appalachians and Possible Trends in a Future Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, D.; Hong, Y.; Lynch, M. J.; Shen, X.; Leslie, L. M.; Mahmood, R.; Duan, Q.; Rappin, E.; Li, Y.; Luo, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes storm-triggered landslides in the US Appalachians, in the current geological setting. Concave valleys that favor the convergence of surface runoff are the primary locales for landslides. If the slopes are weathered to the same degree and have the same vegetation coverage, slope orientation (azimuthal) is not critical for slope stability. However, it is found that for the region south of the Black Mountains (North Carolina), north-facing slopes are more prone to slide, because the northern slopes usually are grass slopes for the regions not limited by annual precipitation (water availability). For the slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, south facing slopes are more prone to slide. Deforestation and topsoil erosion are critical contributors to the massive sizes of the debris flows. Gravity measurements over the past decade reveal that geological conditions, the chute system and underground cracks over the region are stable, and sliding material is plentiful. Future changes in storm-triggered landslide frequency are primarily controlled by changes in extreme precipitation. Thus, a series of ensemble climate model experiments is carried out of possible changes in future extreme precipitation events, using the WRF model forced by temperature perturbations. The focus is the impact on storm-triggered landslides, and over 50 locations are identified as prone to future landslides. In a future warmer climate, more severe extreme precipitation events are projected because of increased vapor content and more frequent passage of tropical cyclone remnants. There also is a likely shift of tropical cyclone tracks and associated extreme precipitation, and the Appalachians scarps cluster center is expected to move westward. The remote sensing way of detecting unstable regions are applicable to other regions of interest. We further examine the following regions (except the Fuji Mount) recently (since 1900) experienced volcanic eruption: Pelee, Agung, Elchichon

  2. CENOZOIC VOLCANISM AND GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper is concentrated on Cenozoic volcanism and geothermal resources in Northeast China. There are a lot of Cenozoic volcanoes, a large area of volcanic rocks, a large number of active faults and rich geothermal resources in Northeast China. The time and space characteristics of Cenozoic volcanism and the space distribution characters of hot springs and high geothermal flux regions in Northeast China are described and discussed on the basis of geological, geothermal, drilling and volcanological data. It is revealed that the hot springs and high geothermal flux regions are re lated to the Cenozoic volcanism, rifting and faulting in Northeast China. It is especially emphasized that the hot springs and high geothermal anomaly areas are controlled by active deep faults. It is proposed that the Cenozoic volcanism re gions, rift basins, active fault belts, activated plate suture zones and large earthquake occurrence points are the best areas for prospecting geothermal resources. The geothermal resources in younger volcanic zones are richer than those in older volcanic belts. The hot springs and active or activated faults might be a very good clue for looking for geothermal resources.

  3. Global Trends in Glacial Cirque Floor Altitudes and Their Relationships with Climate, Equilibrium Line Altitudes, and Mountain Range Heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, S. G.; Humphries, E.

    2013-12-01

    Glacial erosion at the base of cirque headwalls and the creation of threshold slopes above cirque floors may contribute to the 'glacial buzzsaw' effect in limiting the altitude of some mountain ranges. Since glacial extent and therefore glacial erosion rate depends on the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of a region, the altitude of cirque formation should be a function of the ELA. Several regional studies have shown that cirque floors form at an altitude approximating average Quaternary ELAs in some mountain ranges, but a global correlation has not yet been demonstrated. We examined the correlation between cirque altitudes and global ELA trends by compiling existing and new cirque altitude and morphometry data from > 30 mountain ranges at a wide range of latitudes. Where available, we calculate or present the average cirque altitude, relief, and latitude. We compared these altitudes to both the global East Pacific ELA and local ELAs where available. For the locations analyzed, the majority of average cirque altitudes fall between the Eastern Pacific modern and LGM ELAs, and mountain range height is typically limited to cirque formation is dependent upon the ELA, and that cirques likely form as a result of average, rather than extreme, glacial conditions. Furthermore, the correlation between cirque altitude and ELA, along with the restricted window of relief, implies that cirque formation is a factor in limiting peak altitude in ranges that rise above the ELA.

  4. Climate dominated topography in a tectonically active mountain range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, B. A.; Ehlers, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    Tests of the interactions between tectonic and climate forcing on Earth's topography often focus on the concept of steady-state whereby processes of rock deformation and erosion are opposing and equal. However, when conditions change such as the climate or tectonic rock uplift, then surface processes act to restore the balance between rock deformation and erosion by adjusting topography. Most examples of canonical steady-state mountain ranges lie within the northern hemisphere, which underwent a radical change in the Quaternary due to the onset of widespread glaciation. The activity of glaciers changed erosion rates and topography in many of these mountain ranges, which likely violates steady-state assumptions. With new topographic analysis, and existing patterns of climate and rock uplift, we explore a mountain range previously considered to be in steady-state, the Olympic Mountains, USA. The broad spatial trend in channel steepness values suggests that the locus of high rock uplift rates is coincident with the rugged range core, in a similar position as high temperature and pressure lithologies, but not in the low lying foothills as has been previously suggested by low-temperature thermochronometry. The details of our analysis suggest the dominant topographic signal in the Olympic Mountains is a spatial, and likely temporal, variation in erosional efficiency dictated by orographic precipitation, and Pleistocene glacier ELA patterns. We demonstrate the same topographic effects are recorded in the basin hypsometries of other Cenozoic mountain ranges around the world. The significant glacial overprint on topography makes the argument of mountain range steadiness untenable in significantly glaciated settings. Furthermore, our results suggest that most glaciated Cenozoic ranges are likely still in a mode of readjustment as fluvial systems change topography and erosion rates to equilibrate with rock uplift rates.

  5. Understanding Climate Change on the California Coast: Accounting for Extreme Daily Events among Long-Term Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Potter

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The majority of weather station records indicate that surface air temperatures have been warming in California between 1950 and 2005. Temperature data from the mid-1990s to the present were analyzed for stations on California Central Coast near Big Sur (Monterey County to better understand potential for climate change in this biologically unique region. Results showed that daily temperatures in both the winter and summer seasons have cooled the Big Sur coast, particularly after 2003. A current hypothesis is that observed coastal California cooling derives from greenhouse gas-induced regional warming of the inland Central Valley and Sierra Nevada foothill areas, resulting in stronger sustained on-shore sea-breeze flow. Closer examination of daily temperature records at a station location near the Big Sur coast revealed that, even as average monthly maximum temperatures (Tmax have decreased gradually, the number of extreme warm summer days (Tmax > 37 °C has also increased by several fold in frequency. Overall patterns in the station records since the mid-1990s indicated that diurnal temperature ranges are widening on the Big Sur coast, with markedly cooler nighttime temperatures (frequently in the wet winter season followed by slightly higher-than-average daytime temperatures, especially during the warm, dry summer season.

  6. Microbial Contamination Detection in Water Resources: Interest of Current Optical Methods, Trends and Needs in the Context of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude-Valérie Jung

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens’ presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  7. Trends in Summer Season Climate for Eastern Europe and Southern Russia in the Early 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria G. Lebedeva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to evaluate changes in temperature and precipitation in the Central Chernozem Region of southwestern Russia during the summer and relate these to large-scale circulation types and synoptic circulation processes. Some of these circulation regimes result in extreme weather conditions over the region. Using a classification system for Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow regimes and observations of weather within the Central Chernozem Region, the role of individual synoptic patterns in the formation of weather anomalies was identified. Also, comparing the periods 1981–2010 and 1971–2000, the mean summer temperatures increased by 0.6°C regionally. During the most recent decade the increase was 1.3°C. Total precipitation for the summer increased over the 20th century and was characterized by less variability during the second half when compared to the first half. However, in the beginning of the 21st century, precipitation has decreased during the growing season, but variability has increased. The increase in summer temperatures and increased variability in precipitation were then linked to an increase in the occurrence of weather regimes associated with warm anomalies and blocking. Finally, the results of this study can be used to translate larger-scale seasonal or climate forecasts to the regional scale.

  8. Microbial contamination detection in water resources: interest of current optical methods, trends and needs in the context of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Aude-Valérie; Le Cann, Pierre; Roig, Benoit; Thomas, Olivier; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Marie-Florence

    2014-04-17

    Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens' presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  9. Structural deformation pattern within the NW Qaidam Basin in the Cenozoic era and its tectonic implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Liguang; Xiao, Ancheng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wu, Zhankui; Wang, Liqun; Shen, Ya; Wu, Lei

    2016-09-01

    The Qaidam Basin is located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and provides an excellent field laboratory in understanding the history and mechanism of the plateau growth. It deformed widely over the northwest during the Cenozoic but with little thrust loading along the margins, where no foreland depression is observed. Based on satellite images, seismic and borehole data, we investigated the structural deformation pattern (including the structural style and timing of deformation) and its formation mechanism within the northwestern Qaidam Basin during the Cenozoic era. Mapping of surface geology shows that the modern Qaidam Basin is characterized by five SE-trending anticlinal belts. Each belt consists of several right-step en echelon anticlines with plenty of normal and strike-slip faults crossing the crests. Those anticlines are generally dominated by double fault systems at different depths: an upper thrust fault system, controlling the anticlines identified on the surface and a lower dextral transpressional fault system characterized by typical flower structures. They are separated by weak layers in the upper Xiaganchaigou or the Shangganchaigou formations. The upper system yields shortening strain 2-5 times larger than that of the lower system and the additional strain is interpreted to be accommodated by hinge-parallel elongation in the upper system. Growth strata indicate that deformation within the Qaidam Basin initiated in the middle Miocene ( 15 Ma) and accelerated in the late Miocene ( 8 Ma). A simple Riedel-P-Shear model is used to explain the deformation mechanism within the northwestern Qaidam Basin.

  10. Cenozoic extinctions account for the low diversity of extant gymnosperms compared with angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Michael D; Cook, Lyn G

    2011-12-01

    We test the widely held notion that living gymnosperms are 'ancient' and 'living fossils' by comparing them with their sister group, the angiosperms. This perception derives partly from the lack of gross morphological differences between some Mesozoic gymnosperm fossils and their living relatives (e.g. Ginkgo, cycads and dawn redwood), suggesting that the rate of evolution of gymnosperms has been slow. We estimated the ages and diversification rates of gymnosperm lineages using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock dating calibrated with 21 fossils, based on the phylogenetic analysis of alignments of matK chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and 26S nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) sequences, and compared these with published estimates for angiosperms. Gymnosperm crown groups of Cenozoic age are significantly younger than their angiosperm counterparts (median age: 32 Ma vs 50 Ma) and have long unbranched stems, indicating major extinctions in the Cenozoic, in contrast with angiosperms. Surviving gymnosperm genera have diversified more slowly than angiosperms during the Neogene as a result of their higher extinction rate. Compared with angiosperms, living gymnosperm groups are not ancient. The fossil record also indicates that gymnosperms suffered major extinctions when climate changed in the Oligocene and Miocene. Extant gymnosperm groups occupy diverse habitats and some probably survived after making adaptive shifts.

  11. The Kuqa late Cenozoic fold-thrust belt on the southern flank of the Tian Shan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yue-Jun; Wen, Lei; Zhang, Hong-An; Huang, Tai-Zhu; Li, Hui-Li; Shi, Yuan-Yuan; Meng, Qing-Long; Peng, Geng-Xin; Huang, Shao-Ying; Zhang, Qiang

    2016-07-01

    The Kuqa fold-thrust belt (KFTB), a late Cenozoic fold-thrust belt on the southern flank of the Tian Shan Mountains, consists of several deformation zones trending nearly W-E. The main décollement fault of the KFTB gradually rises southwards. There are three regional main décollement faults in the Triassic dark mudstone, Paleogene gypsum salt (Kumugeliemu Formation), and Neogene gypsum salt (Jidike Formation), respectively, and possibly a fourth in the Jurassic coalbed. Laterally, thin-skinned structures are developed in the main segments of the KFTB, whereas thick-skinned structures are in the root zone. Vertically, the structural deformation above the Cenozoic gypsum-salt layers (Paleogene gypsum salt in the middle segment of the KFTB and Neogene gypsum salt in the eastern segment) is characterized by décollement folding, whereas that below is characterized by thrusting. The KFTB was resulted from the late Cenozoic intra-continental orogeny in the Tian Shan area under the far-field effect of the India-Asia collision. The deformation of KFTB began (folding and thrusting) ca. 23 Ma, when the far-field effect of the India-Asia collision reached the Tian Shan area. The deformation of KFTB accelerated ca. 10, 5-2, and 1-0 Ma. In general, the evolution of the KFTB is forward propagating, and the hinter parts of the KFTB continue to deform, while its front propagates southwards.

  12. Influence of climate change on the frequency of daytime temperature inversions and stagnation events in the Po Valley: historical trend and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caserini, Stefano; Giani, Paolo; Cacciamani, Carlo; Ozgen, Senem; Lonati, Giovanni

    2017-02-01

    This work analyzes the frequency of days characterized by daytime temperature inversion and air stagnation events in the Po valley area. The analysis is focused on both historical series and future projections under climate change. Historical sounding data from two different Italian stations are used as well as future projections data, provided by CMCC-CCLM 4-8-19 regional climate model (MED-CORDEX initiative). A new method to detect layers of temperature inversion is also presented. The developed method computes the occurrence of a temperature inversion layer for a given day at 12 UTC without a detailed knowledge of temperature vertical profile. This method was validated using sounding data and applied to the model projections, under two different emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under RCP4.5 intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence of temperature inversions is projected to increase by 12 days/year (around + 10%) in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average. However, the increase in temperature inversions seems to be especially concentrated in the warm period. Under RCP8.5 extreme scenario, temperature inversions are still projected to increase, though to a lesser extent compared to RCP4.5 scenario (+ 6 days/year in the last decade of 21st century). A similar trend was found also for air stagnation events, which take into account the variation of precipitation pattern and wind strength. The expected increases are equal to + 13 days/year and + 11 days/year in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively.

  13. From Arctic greenhouse to icehouse: the Cenozoic development of the West Greenland-Baffin Bay margin and the case for scientific drilling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutz, Paul; Gregersen, Ulrik; Hopper, John R.; Dybkjær, Karen; Nøhr-Hansen, Henrik; Sheldon, Emma; Huuse, Mads

    2016-04-01

    The long-term evolution of glaciated margins plays an essential role in understanding the driving forces and interactions that determine the build-up and decay of ice sheets. The Greenland continental margin towards Baffin Bay is densely covered by industry seismic data and several exploration wells have been drilled, providing a regional stratigraphic framework for the sedimentary successions. This presentation provides an overview of the major depositional units and stratigraphy of the mid-late Cenozoic (since mid-Eocene), with examples demonstrating the different processes that have formed this margin. A sedimentary succession up to 3.5 km thick, of mid-Eocene to mid-Miocene age (mega-unit D), infills the pronounced ridge-basin structures of the rifted and tectonically inverted margin. The lower part of this interval, presumably late Eocene-Oligocene in age, is interpreted as basin-floor fan deposits, while the upper section, of early-middle Miocene age, is mainly marine mudstone. The basin infilling strata are overlain by a late Miocene-Pliocene succession consisting of two mega-units (B and C), with typical thicknesses of 0.5-1 km. The units are characterised by upslope-climbing sediment waves and along-slope trending sedimentary prisms reminiscent of giant contourite drifts. The borehole data associates the prism accumulations with a deep shelf environment influenced by strong marine currents and nearby fluvial sources. On the slope and in the deep basin of Baffin Bay the late Neogene succession is strongly influenced by mass wasting correlated with erosional scars updip. The uppermost seismic mega-unit (A) is dominated by aggradational wedges and prograding fan deposits displaying depocentres >3 km thick, formed at the terminus of palaeo-ice streams. Borehole information associates this interval with deposition of primarily diamict sediments and suggests a late Pliocene onset of major shelf based glaciations on the NW Greenland margin. The southwest margin

  14. Future climate trends from a first-difference atmospheric carbon dioxide regression model involving emissions scenarios for business as usual and for peak fossil fuel

    CERN Document Server

    Leggett, L M W

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the present to 2050, for a comprehensive range of future global fossil fuel energy use scenarios. The results show that even for a business-as-usual (the mid-level IPCC) fossil fuel use estimate, global surface temperature will rise at a slower rate than for the recent period 1960-2000. Concerning peak fossil fuel, for the most common scenario the currently observed (1998-2013)temperature plateau will turn into a decrease. The observed trend to date for temperature is compared with that for global climate disasters: these peaked in 2005 and are notably decreasing. The temperature and disaster results taken together are consistent with either a reduced business-as-usual fossil fuel use scenario into the future, or a peak fossil fuel scenario, but not with the standard business-as-usu...

  15. Fluid Composititon and Carbon & Oxygen Isotope Geochemistry of Cenozoic Alkali Basalts in Eastern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张铭杰; 王先彬; 等

    1999-01-01

    The fluid compositions of Cenozoic alkali basalts in eastern China have been determined by the pyrolysis-MS method,meanwhile the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of CO2 released from these samples at different heating temperatures have been analyzed by the vacuum step-heating method.The data show the volatiole heterogeneity in upper-mantle sources and different evolution trends of alkali basaltic magmas in eastern China,and these alkali basaltic magmas may be generated in the oxidizing milieu,as compared with mantle-derived xenoliths in these alkali basalts,and exotic volatile components were mixed into these magmas in the process of their formation and development.

  16. Modes, tempo and spatial variability of Cenozoic cratonic denudation: morphoclimatic constraints from West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauvais, Anicet; Chardon, Dominique

    2010-05-01

    After the onset of Gondwana break-up in the Early Mesozoic, the emerged part of the African plate underwent long Greenhouse effect climatic periods and epeirogeny. The last Greenhouse effect period in the Early Cenozoic and the alternation of wet and dry climatic periods since the Eocene enhanced episodes of rock chemical weathering and laterite production, forming bauxites and ferricretes, interrupted by drier periods of dominantly mechanical denudation, shaping glacis [1]. In Sub-Saharan West Africa, this evolution resulted in pulsate and essentially climatically-forced denudation that has shaped an ubiquitous sequence of five stepped lateritic paleosurfaces that synchronously developed over Cenozoic times. The modes, timing and spatial variability of continental denudation of the region are investigated by combining geomorphologic and geochronological data sets. The geomorphologic data set comprises the altitudinal distribution of the lateritic paleosurfaces relicts and their differential elevation from 42 locations in Sub-Saharan West Africa where the sequence (or part of it) has been documented. The geochronological data set consists in the age ranges of each paleosurface tackled by radiometric 39Ar-40Ar dating of the neoformed oxy-hydroxides (i.e., cryptomelane, K1-2Mn8O16, nH2O, [4]) carried by their laterites at the Tambao reference site, Burkina Faso [1, 3]. Five groups of 39Ar-40Ar ages, ~ 59 - 45 Ma, ~ 29 - 24 Ma, ~ 18 - 11.5 Ma, ~ 7.2 - 5.8 Ma, and ~ 3.4 - 2.9 Ma, characterize periods of chemical weathering whereas the time laps between these groups of ages correspond to episodes of mechanical denudation that reflect physical shaping of the paleosurfaces. For the last 45 Ma, the denudation rate estimates (3 to 8 m Ma-1) are comparable with those derived on shorter time scale (103 to 106 y.) in the same region by the cosmogenic radionuclide method [2]. Combined with the geomorphologic data set, these age ranges allow the visualization of the regional

  17. Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the late Cenozoic Qaidam Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Wang, Y.; Li, Q.; Wang, X.; Deng, T.; Tseng, Z. J.; Takeuchi, G.; Xie, G.; Xu, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Reconstruction of paleoenvironments in the Tibetan region is important to understanding the linkage between tectonic force and climate change. Here we report new isotope data from the Qaidam Basin, China, which is located on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, including stable C and O isotope analyses of a wide variety of late Cenozoic mammalian tooth enamel samples (including deer, giraffe, horse, rhino, and elephant), and O isotope compositions of phosphate (δ18Op) in fish bone samples. Mammalian tooth enamel δ13C values, when combined with fossil assemblage and other geological evidence, indicate that the Qaidam Basin was warmer and more humid during the late Miocene and early Pliocene, and that there was lush C3 vegetation with significant C4 components at that time, although the C4 plants were not consistently utilized. In contrast, the modern Qaidam Basin is dominated by C3 plants. Fish bone δ18Op values showed statistically significant enrichment from the Tuxi-Shengou-Naoge interval (late Miocene) to the Yahu interval (early Pliocene) and from the Yahu interval to the present day. This most likely reflects increases in the δ18O of lake water over time, as a result of increased aridification of the Qaidam Basin. Assuming that mammals drank exclusively from the lake, temperatures were calculated from average δ18Op values and average δ18Ow derived from large mammal tooth enamel δ18O. Temperatures were also estimated from δ18Op and δ18Ow estimated from co-ocurring large mammal tooth enamel δ18O. The temperature estimates were all lower than the average temperature of the modern Qinghai Lake surface water during the summer, and mostly too low to be reasonable, indicating that the fish and the large mammals were not in equilibrium with the same water. Assuming the relationship between salinity and δ18Ow observed for the modern Qinghai Lake and its surrounding lakes and ponds applied in the past, we calculated the paleosalinities of lake waters to be ~0 to

  18. 全球气候变化大趋势与次级波动%General Trend and Its Secondary Fluctuations of Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    靳建辉; 刘秀铭; 赵国永; 祝淑雅; 陈斐然; 叶桂萍

    2012-01-01

    According to a report by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the earth′s mean air temperature rose by 0.74 ℃ during last century,as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas.However,many conclusions of the report are controversial.What is the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to global warming? Does human factors play a key role in global warming? Can the 0.74 ℃ be explained as one of secondary fluctuations in the general cooling trend of global climate? We argue that since the Quaternary,climatic changes on earth were mainly controlled by the periodic change of solar radiation.Since the late Holocene the global climate showed a cooling trend,but there were many secondary fluctuations,whose changes of mean air temperature could range between 0.5 ℃ and 6 ℃.Therefore,we would rather consider the warming in the IPCC report as one of such secondary fluctuations.%联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)报告近百年升温约0.74℃,并将气候变化归因于人为排放的温室气体,然而该报告中的多处结论引起了国际社会对IPCC报告的广泛质疑.人为排放的温室气体对全球升温贡献有多大?人为过程与自然过程对全球变暖分别贡献多少?IPCC评估报告中过去百年0.74℃的变化是否为变冷总趋势中的次级波动?针对这些问题,本研究梳理了近年来全球气候变化的相关研究成果.结果显示,第四纪以来的地球气候波动主要受控于太阳辐射变化周期,各个时间尺度上的气候变化既表现出明显的周期性,也同时存在次一级的波动.在全新世晚期气候变冷的背景下,气候变化千年—百年尺度上同样存在一系列周期性和次级波动,且波动范围在0.5~6℃之间变化.IPCC报告中百年气候变暖的合理解释是全球变冷趋势下的次级波动.

  19. Paleoclimate from fossil plants and application to the early Cenozoic Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    Wladimir Köppen called vegetation "crystallized, visible climate," and his metaphor encouraged paleobotanists to climb the chain of inference from fossil plants to paleovegetation to paleoclimate. Inferring paleovegetation from fossils has turned out to be very difficult, however, and today most paleobotanical methods for inferring paleoclimate do not try to reconstruct paleovegetation as a first step. Three major approaches are widely use to infer paleoclimate from plant fossils: 1) phylogenetic inferences rely on the climatic distributions of extant relatives of fossils, 2) morphological inferences use present-day correlations of climate with plant morphology (e.g, leaf shape, wood anatomy), and 3) chemical inferences rely on correlations between climate and the stable isotopic composition of plants or organic compounds. Each approach makes assumptions that are hard to verify. Phylogenetic inference depends on accurate identification of fossils, and also assumes that evolution and/or extinction has not shifted the climatic distributions of plant lineages through time. On average this assumption is less valid for older time periods, but probably it is not radically wrong for the early Cenozoic. Morphological approaches don't require taxonomic identification of plant fossils, but do assume that correlations between plant form and climate have been constant over time. This assumption is bolstered if the ecophysiological cause of the morphology-climate correlation is well understood, but often it isn't. Stable isotopic approaches assume that present-day correlations between isotopic composition and climate apply to the past. Commonly the chemical and physiological mechanisms responsible for the correlation are moderately well known, but often the variation among different taxonomic and functional groups of plants is poorly characterized. In spite of limitations and uncertainties on all methods for inferring paleoclimate from fossil plants, broad patterns emerge from

  20. Cenozoic Molluscan types from Java (Indonesia) in the Martin Collection (Division of Cenozoic Mollusca), National Museum of Natural History, Leiden

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoek Ostende, van den L.W.; Leloux, J.; Wesselingh, F.P.; Winkler Prins, C.F.

    2002-01-01

    An inventory of type material in the ‘Martin Collection’ at the Division of Cenozoic Mollusca of the National Museum of Natural History, Leiden, The Netherlands has been made. In total 1842 lots containing over 5700 type specimens of 912 species were encountered. The status of the types is outlined.

  1. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  2. Ocean acidification in the Meso- vs. Cenozoic: lessons from modeling about the geological expression of paleo-ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, S. E.; Ridgwell, A.; Kirtland Turner, S.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid climatic and biotic events putatively associated with ocean acidification are scattered throughout the Meso-Cenozoic. Many of these rapid perturbations, variably referred to as hyperthermals (Paleogene) and oceanic anoxic events or mass extinction events (Mesozoic), share a number of characteristic features, including some combination of negative carbon isotopic excursion, global warming, and a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Comparisons between ocean acidification events over the last ~250 Ma are, however, problematic because the types of marine geological archives and carbon reservoirs that can be interrogated are fundamentally different for early Mesozoic vs. late Mesozoic-Cenozoic events. Many Mesozoic events are known primarily or exclusively from geological outcrops of relatively shallow water deposits, whereas the more recent Paleogene hyperthermal events have been chiefly identified from deep sea records. In addition, these earlier events are superimposed on an ocean with a fundamentally different carbonate buffering capacity, as calcifying plankton (which created the deep-sea carbonate sink) originate in the mid-Mesozoic. Here, we use both Earth system modeling and reaction transport sediment modeling to explore the ways in which comparable ocean acidification-inducing climate perturbations might manifest in the Mesozoic vs. the Cenozoic geological record. We examine the role of the deep-sea carbonate sink in the expression of ocean acidification, as well as the spatial heterogeneity of surface ocean pH and carbonate saturation state. These results critically inform interpretations of ocean acidification prior to the mid-Mesozoic advent of calcifying plankton and expectations about the recording of these events in geological outcrop.

  3. The Middle Miocene Climate Transition in the Central Mediterranean. Geologica Ultraiectina (326)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mourik, A.A.

    2010-01-01

    The Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~15-13.7 Ma) is one of the major steps in Cenozoic climate evolution. The rapid expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.9 – 13.7 Ma caused important climate changes on a global scale. The aim of this PhD research has been to study the effects of the Mi

  4. China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change (Ⅰ): Climate change in China and the future trend%气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁一汇; 任国玉; 石广玉

    2007-01-01

    The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country.

  5. Cenozoic ice sheet history from East Antarctic Wilkes Land continental margin sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escutia, C.; De Santis, L.; Donda, F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Cooper, A. K.; Brancolini, Giuliano; Eittreim, S.L.

    2005-01-01

    The long-term history of glaciation along the East Antarctic Wilkes Land margin, from the time of the first arrival of the ice sheet to the margin, through the significant periods of Cenozoic climate change is inferred using an integrated geophysical and geological approach. We postulate that the first arrival of the ice sheet to the Wilkes Land margin resulted in the development of a large unconformity (WL-U3) between 33.42 and 30 Ma during the early Oligocene cooling climate trend. Above WL-U3, substantial margin progradation takes place with early glacial strata (e.g., outwash deposits) deposited as low-angle prograding foresets by temperate glaciers. The change in geometry of the prograding wedge across unconformity WL-U8 is interpreted to represent the transition, at the end of the middle Miocene "climatic optimum" (14-10 Ma), from a subpolar regime with dynamic ice sheets (i.e., ice sheets come and go) to a regime with persistent but oscillatory ice sheets. The steep foresets above WL-U8 likely consist of ice proximal sediments (i.e., water-lain till and debris flows) deposited when grounded ice-sheets extended into the shelf. On the continental rise, shelf progradation above WL-U3 results in an up-section increase in the energy of the depositional environment (i.e., seismic facies indicative of more proximal turbidite and of bottom contour current deposition from the deposition of the lower WL-S5 sequence to WL-S7). Maximum rates of sediment delivery to the rise occur during the development of sequences WL-S6 and WL-S7, which we infer to be of middle Miocene age. During deposition of the two uppermost sequences, WL-S8 and WL-S9, there is a marked decrease in the sediment supply to the lower continental rise and a shift in the depocenters to more proximal areas of the margin. We believe WL-S8 records sedimentation during the final transition from a dynamic to a persistent but oscillatory ice sheet in this margin (14-10 Ma). Sequence WL-S9 forms under a polar

  6. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Pleistocene climate oscillations imply a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 {\\pm} 1 {\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing for the average of climate states between the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the error estimate being large and partly subjective because of continuing uncertainty about LGM global surface climate. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we suggest that hysteresis and slow response in current ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding a strong increase in sensitivity when global temperature reaches early Cenozoic and higher levels, as increased water vapor eliminates the tropopause. It follows that...

  7. Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, Mark A; Christensen, Beth

    2007-11-01

    The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa

  8. Cenozoic denudation of the Wichita Mountains, Oklahoma, and southern mid-continent: apatite fission-track thermochronology constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Jennifer E.; Kelley, Shari A.; Bergman, Steven C.

    1999-05-01

    eastern Sangre de Cristo Mountains to ˜1 km along the east side of the Front Range. Post-Laramide isostatic adjustment of the High Plains, the development of the Rio Grande rift, and a shift towards a drier climate with seasonal, intense thunderstorms on the High Plains may all have contributed to the observed pattern of Cenozoic denudation in the southern mid-continent.

  9. Cenozoic Uplift, Erosion and Dynamic Support of Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Simon; White, Nicky

    2016-04-01

    The physiography of Madagascar is characterised by high-elevation but low-relief topography; 42% of the landscape is above 500 m in elevation. Eocene (marine) nummulitic (marine) limestones at elevations of ˜400 m above sea level and newly dated, emergent 125 ka coral reefs suggest that Madagascar has experienced differential vertical motions during Cenozoic times. Malagasy rivers are often deeply incised and contain steepened reaches, implying that they have responded to changes in regional uplift rate. However, low temperature thermochronology and 10Be derived erosion rates suggest that both Cenozoic and Recent average denudation rates have been low. Extensive laterite-capped, low-relief surfaces also suggest that there have been long periods of tectonic quiescence. In contrast, the modern landscape is characterised by erosional gullies (i.e. lavaka), with very high local erosion rates. To bridge the gap between this disparate evidence, we inverted 2566 longitudinal river profiles using a damped non-negative, least-squares linear inversion to determine the history of regional uplift. We used a simplified version of the stream power erosional law. River profiles were extracted from the 3 arc-second Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model. Calibration of the stream power erosional law is based upon Cenozoic limestones and new radiometrically dated marine terraces. The residual misfit between observed and calculated river profiles is small. Results suggest that Malagasy topography grew diachronously by 1-2 km over the last 15-20 Ma. Calculated uplift and denudation are consistent with independent observations. Thus drainage networks contain coherent signals that record regional uplift. The resultant waves of incision are the principal trigger for modern erosional processes. Admittance calculations, the history of basaltic volcanism and nearby oceanic residual age-depth measurements all suggest that as much as 0.8 - 1.1 km of Cenozoic uplift

  10. The dynamics of Cenozoic and Mesozoic plate motions

    OpenAIRE

    Lithgow-Bertelloni, C.; Richards, M. A.

    1998-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamics of plate motions is based almost entirely upon modeling of present-day plate motions. A fuller understanding, however, can be derived from consideration of the history of plate motions. Here we investigate the kinematics of the last 120 Myr of plate motions and the dynamics of Cenozoic motions, paying special attention to changes in the character of plate motions and plate-driving forces. We analyze the partitioning of the observed surface velocity field into...

  11. Late Cenozoic genus Fupingopollenites development and its implications for the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Y.; Song, C.; Fang, X.; Meng, Q.; Zhang, P.; Wu, F.; Yan, X.

    2015-12-01

    An extinct palynomorph, Fupingopollenites, was used as the basis for a discussion of the late Cenozoic Asian summer monsoon (ASM) evolution and its possible driving forces. Based on the spatial and temporal variations in its percentages across Inner and East Asia, we found that Fupingopollenites mainly occurred in East Asia, with boundaries to the NE of ca. 42°N, 135°E and NW of ca. 36°N, 103°E during the Early Miocene (ca. 23-17 Ma). This region enlarged westwards, reaching the eastern Qaidam Basin (ca. 36°N, 97.5°E) during the Middle Miocene (ca. 17-11 Ma), before noticeably retreating to a region bounded to the NW at ca. 33°N, 105°E during ca. 11-5.3 Ma. The region then shrank further in the Pliocene, with the NE boundary shrinking southwards to about 35°N, 120°E; the area then almost disappeared during the Pleistocene (2.6-0 Ma). The flourishing and subsequent extinction of Fupingopollenites is indicative of a narrow ecological amplitude with a critical dependence on habitat humidity and temperature (most likely mean annual precipitation (MAP) >1000 mm and mean annual temperature (MAT) >10°C). Therefore, the Fupingopollenites geographic distribution can indicate the humid ASM evolution during the late Cenozoic, revealing that the strongest ASM period occurred during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO, ~17-14 Ma), after which the ASM weakened coincident with global cooling. We argue that the global cooling played a critical role in the ASM evolution, while the Tibetan Plateau uplifts made a relatively small contribution. This result was supported by a Miocene pollen record at the Qaidam Basin, inner Asia and the contemporaneously compiled pollen records across the Eurasia.

  12. Evidence for a Cenozoic radiation of ferns in an angiosperm-dominated canopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuettpelz, Eric; Pryer, Kathleen M

    2009-07-07

    In today's angiosperm-dominated terrestrial ecosystems, leptosporangiate ferns are truly exceptional--accounting for 80% of the approximately 11,000 nonflowering vascular plant species. Recent studies have shown that this remarkable diversity is mostly the result of a major leptosporangiate radiation beginning in the Cretaceous, following the rise of angiosperms. This pattern is suggestive of an ecological opportunistic response, with the proliferation of flowering plants across the landscape resulting in the formation of many new niches--both on forest floors and within forest canopies--into which leptosporangiate ferns could diversify. At present, one-third of leptosporangiate species grow as epiphytes in the canopies of angiosperm-dominated tropical rain forests. However, we know too little about the evolutionary history of epiphytic ferns to assess whether or not their diversification was in fact linked to the establishment of these forests, as would be predicted by the ecological opportunistic response hypothesis. Here we provide new insight into leptosporangiate diversification and the evolution of epiphytism by integrating a 400-taxon molecular dataset with an expanded set of fossil age constraints. We find evidence for a burst of fern diversification in the Cenozoic, apparently driven by the evolution of epiphytism. Whether this explosive radiation was triggered simply by the establishment of modern angiosperm-dominated tropical rain forest canopies, or spurred on by some other large-scale extrinsic factor (e.g., climate change) remains to be determined. In either case, it is clear that in both the Cretaceous and Cenozoic, leptosporangiate ferns were adept at exploiting newly created niches in angiosperm-dominated ecosystems.

  13. Declining sensitivity of the carbonate compensation depth to sea level during the Cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong McKay, David I.; Tyrrell, Toby; Wilson, Paul A.

    2016-04-01

    Over the course of the Cenozoic the global carbonate compensation depth (CCD), the depth in the ocean below which carbonate deposited on the seafloor is not preserved, has shifted from a relatively shallow average position (~3000 to 3500 m in the equatorial Pacific) in the Palaeocene to a relatively deep position (~4600 m in the equatorial Pacific) today. Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain this shift, including increased input of terrestrial weathering products to the ocean, decreased bottom-water corrosivity due to increased ocean ventilation, and the decline of shelf carbonates leading to carbonate burial shifting to the deep ocean (known as 'shelf-basin carbonate burial fractionation'). Here we build on earlier attempts to quantify the impacts of carbonate burial fractionation on the CCD by analysing global hypsometric and carbonate burial data and determining the relationship between sea level, shelf carbonate burial extent, and the CCD. We show that if carbonate burial rates remain constant across the Cenozoic then carbonate burial fractionation can explain between 550 and 800 m of the long-term ~1600 m CCD deepening in the equatorial Pacific, ~430 m of which occurring across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) ~34 million years ago when the CCD permanently deepened by ~500 m. This finding indicates that other processes dominated CCD change before and after the EOT and during events such as the Mid-Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO), but a higher resolution global CCD record is required to better constrain the global magnitude of CCD change during these times. We find that the sensitivity of the CCD to sea level change was at its greatest prior to the EOT and then declined by approximately half due to the loss of extensive carbonate platforms at the end of the Eocene and the intersection of the CCD with large tracts of the abyssal plain.

  14. Interannual climate variability and spatially heterogeneous improvement of agricultural management impede detection of a decreasing trend in nitrate pollution in an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fovet, Ophélie; Dupas, Rémi; Durand, Patrick; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Gruau, Gérard; Hamon, Yannick; Petitjean, Patrice

    2016-04-01

    Despite widespread implementation of the nitrate directive in the European Union since the 1990s, the impact on nitrate concentration in rivers is limited (Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2011). To assess whether this lack of response is due to the long time lags of nitrate transfer or to inadequate programs of measure, long term river and groundwater monitoring data are necessary. This study analyses 15 years of daily nitrate concentration data at the outlet of an intensively farmed catchment in Western France (Kervidy-Naizin, 5 km²) and quarterly nitrate concentration data in the groundwater of two hillslopes equipped with piezometers (Kerroland and Gueriniec) within the same catchment. In this catchment groundwater contribution to annual stream flow is dominant. The objectives of this study were to i) disentangle the influence of interannual climate variability and improvement of agricultural practices (i.e. reduction in N surplus) in the stream chemistry and ii) discuss the reasons for slow catchment recovery from nitrate pollution by comparing trends in groundwater and stream concentrations. Analysis of stream data showed that flow-weighted mean annual concentration at the outlet of the Kervidy-Naizin catchment has decreased by 1.2 mg NO3- l-1 yr-1 from 1999 to 2015. This decrease was slow but significant (p value 100 kg N ha-1 yr-1). We conclude that, despite the lags due to pluri annual nitrate transfer through the unsaturated and satured zones in catchments of Western France, significant decrease in nitrate concentration in groundwater and streams should be visible within less than 10 years after implementation of an efficient program of measures. Spatial heterogeneity in the implementation of programs of measures (i.e. reduction of N surplus) is a likely cause of slow, sometimes undetectable, reduction in nitrate concentration. Bouraoui, F., and Grizzetti, B.: Long term change of nutrient concentrations of rivers discharging in European seas, The Science of the

  15. Cenozoic epeirogeny of the Indian peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M. J.; White, N. J.

    2016-12-01

    Peninsular India is a cratonic region with asymmetric relief manifest by eastward tilting from the 1.5 km high Western Ghats escarpment toward the floodplains of eastward-draining rivers. Oceanic residual depth measurements on either side of India show that this west-east asymmetry is broader scale, occurring over distances of > 2000 km. Admittance analysis of free-air gravity and topography shows that the elastic thickness is 10 ± 3 km, suggesting that regional uplift is not solely caused by flexural loading. To investigate how Indian physiography is generated, we have jointly inverted 530 river profiles to determine rock uplift rate as a function of space and time. Key erosional parameters are calibrated using independent geologic constraints (e.g., emergent marine deposits, elevated paleosurfaces, uplifted lignite deposits). Our results suggest that regional tilt grew at rates of up to 0.1 mm a-1 between 25 Ma and the present day. Neogene uplift initiated in the south and propagated northward along the western margin. This calculated history is corroborated by low-temperature thermochronologic observations, by sedimentary flux of clastic deposits into the Krishna-Godavari delta, and by sequence stratigraphic architecture along adjacent rifted margins. Onset of regional uplift predates intensification of the Indian monsoon at 8 Ma, suggesting that rock uplift rather than climatic change is responsible for modern-day relief. A positive correlation between residual depth measurements and shear wave velocities beneath the lithosphere suggests that regional uplift is generated and maintained by temperature anomalies of ±100 °C within a 200 ± 25 km thick asthenospheric channel.

  16. First fossil evidence of Connaraceae R. Br. from Indian Cenozoic and its phytogeographical significance

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mahasin Ali Khan; Subir Bera

    2016-07-01

    Fossil leaflet impression described here as a new species Rourea miocaudata sp. nov., showing close resemblance with the modern leaflets of Rourea caudata Planch. (Connaraceae R. Br.), has been recorded from the lower part of the Siwalik sediments (Dafla Formation, middle–upper Miocene) exposed at the road-cutting section of Pinjoli area in West Kameng district, Arunachal Pradesh. The importantmorphological characters of the fossil are its narrow elliptic leaflet, cuneate base, long caudate apex, entire margin, eucamptodromous to brochidodromous secondary veins, presence of intersecondary veins, percurrent and reticulate tertiary veins and orthogonally reticulate quaternary veins. This is the first authentic record of the occurrence of leaflet comparable to R. caudata of Connaraceae from the Cenozoic sediments of India and abroad. At present R. caudata does not grow in India and is restricted only in southeast Asia especially in China and Myanmar. This taxon probably migrated to these southeast Asian regions after lower Siwalik sedimentation (middle–upper Miocene) due to climatic change causedby post-Miocene orogenic movement of the Himalaya. The recovery of this species and other earlierdescribed evergreen taxa from the same formation, suggests the existence of a tropical, warm and humid climatic conditions during the depositional period.

  17. First fossil evidence of Connaraceae R. Br. from Indian Cenozoic and its phytogeographical significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mahasin Ali; Bera, Subir

    2016-07-01

    Fossil leaflet impression described here as a new species Rourea miocaudata sp. nov., showing close resemblance with the modern leaflets of Rourea caudata Planch. (Connaraceae R. Br.), has been recorded from the lower part of the Siwalik sediments (Dafla Formation, middle-upper Miocene) exposed at the road-cutting section of Pinjoli area in West Kameng district, Arunachal Pradesh. The important morphological characters of the fossil are its narrow elliptic leaflet, cuneate base, long caudate apex, entire margin, eucamptodromous to brochidodromous secondary veins, presence of intersecondary veins, percurrent and reticulate tertiary veins and orthogonally reticulate quaternary veins. This is the first authentic record of the occurrence of leaflet comparable to R. caudata of Connaraceae from the Cenozoic sediments of India and abroad. At present R. caudata does not grow in India and is restricted only in southeast Asia especially in China and Myanmar. This taxon probably migrated to these southeast Asian regions after lower Siwalik sedimentation (middle-upper Miocene) due to climatic change caused by post-Miocene orogenic movement of the Himalaya. The recovery of this species and other earlier-described evergreen taxa from the same formation, suggests the existence of a tropical, warm and humid climatic conditions during the depositional period.

  18. Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: Trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gain, A.K.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact

  19. 1961—2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应%Altitude dependency of trends of daily climate extremes in southwestern China, 1961-2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Zongxing; HE Yuanqing; Wilfred H.THEAKSTONE; WANG Xufeng; ZHANG Wei; CAO Weihong; DU Jiankuo; XIN Huijuan; CHANG LI

    2012-01-01

    @@%A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008.Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation included the trends of diurnal temperature range,frost days,ice days,cold night frequency and cold day frequency.Regional trends of growing season length,warm night frequency,coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude.These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude.For precipitation extreme indices,only the trends of consecutive dry days,consecutive wet days,wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing altitude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation.It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas,whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude.In addition,the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes.The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to elevation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.

  20. The structural evolution of the Ghadames and Illizi basins during the Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic: Petroleum implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauthier, F.J. [Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Houston, TX (United States); Boudjema, A. [Somatrach, Algiers (Algeria); Lounis, R. [Anadarko Algeria Corp., Houston, TX (United States)

    1995-08-01

    The Ghadames and Illizi basins cover the majority of the eastern Sahara of Algeria. Geologicaly, this part of the Central Saharan platform has been influenced by a series of structural arches and {open_quotes}moles{close_quotes} (continental highs) which controlled sedimentation and structure through geologic time. These features, resulting from and having been affected by nine major tectonic phases ranging from pre-Cambrian to Tertiary, completely bound the Ghadames and Illizi Basins. During the Paleozoic both basins formed one continuous depositional entity with the Ghadames basin being the distal portion of the continental sag basin where facies and thickness variations are observed over large distances. It is during the Mesozoic-Cenozoic that the Ghadames basin starts to evolve differently from the Illizi Basin. Eustatic low-stand periods resulted in continental deposition yielding the major petroleum-bearing reservoir horizons (Cambrian, Ordovician, Siluro-Devonian and Carboniferous). High-stand periods corresponds to the major marine transgressions covering the majority of the Saharan platform. These transgressions deposited the principal source rock intervals of the Silurian and Middle to Upper Devonian. The main reservoirs of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are Triassic sandstone sequences which are covered by a thick evaporite succession forming a super-seal. Structurally, the principal phases affecting this sequence are the extensional events related to the breakup of Pangea and the Alpine compressional events. The Ghadames and Illizi basins, therefore, have been controlled by a polphase tectonic history influenced by Pan African brittle basement fracturing which resulted in complex structures localized along the major basin bounding trends as well as several subsidiary trends within the basin. These trends, as demonstrated with key seismic data, have been found to contain the majority of hydrocarbons trapped.

  1. Significant Cenozoic faulting, east margin of the Española Basin, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, James H.; Riecker, Robert E.

    1989-03-01

    Tectonic interpretation of the east margin of the Española Basin, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, has been controversial. Previous authors have disagreed as to whether significant faulting defines the boundary between the basin and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A more recent geophysical basin transect that suggests no significant faulting and held observation of faceted spurs along the western Sangre de Cristo Mountain front indicating a faulted margin motivate our study. The east margin of the Española Basin for about 37 km north of Santa Fe, New Mexico, is marked by a complex array of significant, late Cenozoic high-angle faults. Locally, three parallel, north-trending, high-angle faults cut Precambrian basement and Tertiary basin-fill rocks along the basin margin. Elsewhere along the margin, tilted fault blocks and intersecting faults occur. Fault area, fault attitude with depth, magnitude of fault motion, and timing of fault motion remain uncertain. However, faults studied in detail are 1-2 km long, have minimum dip-slip motion of 33-100 m, and underwent movement during the late Cenozoic. Potentially significant tectonic and seismic hazard implications arise from the possibility of post-150 ka fault motion.

  2. Analysis on the Climate Change Trend in Zhucheng of Shandong Province%山东诸城市天气现象变化趋势分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴建梅; 孙金森; 陈林祥; 王晓立

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] To study the climate changing characteristics and influence in Zhucheng. [ Method ] According to the daily meteorological data of Zhucheng from 1958 to 2011,the total days,annual average days,frequency,etc. of each weather phenomenon were statistically analyzed with curves,trend map and frequency. [ Result] 19 types of weather phenomena appeared in Zhucheng for a total of 32 398 days during the 54 years. Seven types of weather,including snowstorm,smoke,dust stum,aurora borealis,tornadoes,dust tornado and ice needles,never appeared. Ten types,including dew,mist,ice,rain,frost,fog, thunderstorms,large snow,snow and high winds,occurred rarely; nine types,including snow drift,squall,glaze,hail,rime,haze,blowing sand,lightning and dust,appeared very less; the days with mist,rain and other five types of weather presented a gradual increasing tendency; while the days with dew,ice and other ten types of weather presented a decreasing tendency. [Conclusion] The study guided the weather forecast in Zhucheng and provided scientific services for its agriculture.%[目的]分析诸城市历年天气现象的变化特征及其影响.[方法]利用诸城市1958 - 2011年的逐日天气现象资料,采用曲线图、趋势图、频率等方法,对近54年诸城市出现的天气现象总日数、年平均日数、频率等分布特征进行了统计分析.[结果]近54年诸城市共出现天气现象19种,总日数32 398 d;雪暴、烟幕、沙尘暴、极光、龙卷、尘卷风和冰针7种天气现象从未出现,露、轻雾、结冰、雨、霜、雾、雷暴、积雪、雪、大风10种天气现象出现较多,吹雪、飑、雨凇、冰雹、雾凇、霾、扬沙、闪电、浮尘9种天气现象出现较少;轻雾、雨等7种天气现象出现天数总体均呈递增趋势,露、结冰等12种天气现象出现天数均呈递减趋势.[结论]该研究为当地具体预报起到指导作用,更好地为农服务提供科学依据.

  3. Cenozoic Methane-Seep Faunas of the Caribbean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Steffen; Hansen, Bent T

    2015-01-01

    We report new examples of Cenozoic cold-seep communities from Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, and Venezuela, and attempt to improve the stratigraphic dating of Cenozoic Caribbean seep communities using strontium isotope stratigraphy. Two seep faunas are distinguished in Barbados: the late Eocene mudstone-hosted 'Joes River fauna' consists mainly of large lucinid bivalves and tall abyssochrysoid gastropods, and the early Miocene carbonate-hosted 'Bath Cliffs fauna' containing the vesicomyid Pleurophopsis, the mytilid Bathymodiolus and small gastropods. Two new Oligocene seep communities from the Sinú River basin in Colombia consist of lucinid bivalves including Elongatolucina, thyasirid and solemyid bivalves, and Pleurophopsis. A new early Miocene seep community from Cuba includes Pleurophopsis and the large lucinid Meganodontia. Strontium isotope stratigraphy suggests an Eocene age for the Cuban Elmira asphalt mine seep community, making it the oldest in the Caribbean region. A new basal Pliocene seep fauna from the Dominican Republic is characterized by the large lucinid Anodontia (Pegophysema). In Trinidad we distinguish two types of seep faunas: the mudstone-hosted Godineau River fauna consisting mainly of lucinid bivalves, and the limestone-hosted Freeman's Bay fauna consisting chiefly of Pleurophopsis, Bathymodiolus, and small gastropods; they are all dated as late Miocene. Four new seep communities of Oligocene to Miocene age are reported from Venezuela. They consist mainly of large globular lucinid bivalves including Meganodontia, and moderately sized vesicomyid bivalves. After the late Miocene many large and typical 'Cenozoic' lucinid genera disappeared from the Caribbean seeps and are today known only from the central Indo-Pacific Ocean. We speculate that the increasingly oligotrophic conditions in the Caribbean Sea after the closure of the Isthmus of Panama in the Pliocene may have been unfavorable for such large lucinids because they

  4. Cenozoic Methane-Seep Faunas of the Caribbean Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Kiel

    Full Text Available We report new examples of Cenozoic cold-seep communities from Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, and Venezuela, and attempt to improve the stratigraphic dating of Cenozoic Caribbean seep communities using strontium isotope stratigraphy. Two seep faunas are distinguished in Barbados: the late Eocene mudstone-hosted 'Joes River fauna' consists mainly of large lucinid bivalves and tall abyssochrysoid gastropods, and the early Miocene carbonate-hosted 'Bath Cliffs fauna' containing the vesicomyid Pleurophopsis, the mytilid Bathymodiolus and small gastropods. Two new Oligocene seep communities from the Sinú River basin in Colombia consist of lucinid bivalves including Elongatolucina, thyasirid and solemyid bivalves, and Pleurophopsis. A new early Miocene seep community from Cuba includes Pleurophopsis and the large lucinid Meganodontia. Strontium isotope stratigraphy suggests an Eocene age for the Cuban Elmira asphalt mine seep community, making it the oldest in the Caribbean region. A new basal Pliocene seep fauna from the Dominican Republic is characterized by the large lucinid Anodontia (Pegophysema. In Trinidad we distinguish two types of seep faunas: the mudstone-hosted Godineau River fauna consisting mainly of lucinid bivalves, and the limestone-hosted Freeman's Bay fauna consisting chiefly of Pleurophopsis, Bathymodiolus, and small gastropods; they are all dated as late Miocene. Four new seep communities of Oligocene to Miocene age are reported from Venezuela. They consist mainly of large globular lucinid bivalves including Meganodontia, and moderately sized vesicomyid bivalves. After the late Miocene many large and typical 'Cenozoic' lucinid genera disappeared from the Caribbean seeps and are today known only from the central Indo-Pacific Ocean. We speculate that the increasingly oligotrophic conditions in the Caribbean Sea after the closure of the Isthmus of Panama in the Pliocene may have been unfavorable for such large

  5. 未来气候情景下西藏地区的干湿状况变化趋势%Trends Of Tibet's Dry-Wet Condition under Future Climate Scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵俊芳; 郭建平; 房世波; 毛飞

    2011-01-01

    The drought is one of the important meteorological disasters in Tibet, and occurs in varying degrees each year. The drought has a great impact on the agriculture and livestock production. It has an important significance that forecasting the trends of Tibet's dry-wet condition under future climate scenario for prevention and reduction of losses caused by drought in the region. Based on the daily data of A2 climate scenario (2011 -2050) and baseline climate condition (1961 -1990) from the regional climate model PRECIS with resolution of 50km × 50km, reference crop evapotranspiration was calculated according to Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO. In terms of grades of wetness index from Chinese Climate Classification Criterion, Tibet is classified into arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid zones, respectively. The possible temporal-spatial changes of dry-wet condition in Tibet from 2011 to 2050 were analyzed based on wetness index. The results showed that: the amount of precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration in the most regions of Tibet would increase from 2011 to 2050 compared with the baseline climate conditions from 1961 to 1990. The increase range of reference crop evapotranspiration was less than that of precipitation. However, the inter-regional differences were both significant; in the next 40 years, Tibet's climate showed a warming and wetting trend in general. The reducing trends in arid and semi-arid areas were clear. And the increase range of average temperature was far greater than that of wetness index. Environmental water and heat factors were higher and drought gradually decreased. It was more conducive to the improvement of ecological environment; however, the different climatic zones in dry-wet conditions at different times showed different trends. The area's reducing trend in the arid and semiarid region and the expanding trend in the humid and semi-humid region during 2021 to 2030 would be obvious compared with the

  6. Soft-sediment ichnotaxa from the Cenozoic White Limestone Group, Jamaica, West Indies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blissett, D.J.; Pickerill, R.K.

    2004-01-01

    Jamaica, the third largest of the Greater Antillean islands, exposes various lithological units that are dominated by Cenozoic carbonate rocks including those of the mid-Cenozoic White Limestone Group. This Group is comprised of six formations, the Troy, Swanswick, Somerset, Moneague, Montpelier and

  7. Cenozoic Fault Distribution Characteristics and Evolution in Qikou Sag of Bohai Basin, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dongdong Zhang; Chiyang Liu; Yijian Huang; Siqian Chen; Yi Lu; Zhipan Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Qikou sag, located in north-center of Huanghua depression in Bohai Basin, is a Cenozoic sag with rich hydrocarbon. As a microcosm of Bohai Basin, the fault characteristics of Cenozoic struc-tural layers in Qikou sag could indicate and record the evolution of Cenozoic stress field in Bohai Basin. Based on the latest 3-D seismic data, the study takes statistics on the fault system of Cenozoic structural layers and analyzes the fault throws of major large faults along the strikes in different periods in Qikou sag, then the fault distribution regularities and the fault direction characteristics in each structural layer are summarized. The result shows that during Cenozoic, the fault activity strength migrates from southwest to northeast and the strikes of faults changes from northwestward in Sha-3 period to nearly east-westward since Sha-1 period.

  8. 新生代农民工的边缘化现状探析%The Analysis of Current Marginalization of Cenozoic Working Farmers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭立场

    2011-01-01

    作为新崛起的社会阶层,新生代农民工虽然已经成为中国劳动力供给的主流,却未能享有基本的社会权益和应有的社会保障,处于一种社会“夹心层”的境地,被双重边缘化。我们从政治性、市场性、制度性、文化性和个体性等五个方面对新生代农民工的边缘化现状进行分析,提出要充分考虑政治、经济、社会等因素的走势对新生代农民工的影响,采取切实措施保障新生代农民工的合法权益。%As the new emerging social strata, cenozoic migrant farmers have been becoming the mainstream of China' s labour supply, nonetheless, they have failed to enjoy the city's basic deserved rights and security all the time. To sum up, the cenozoic migrant workers, who are double marginalized, lie in the situation of "sandwich lay- er" in our society. This article analyses our new generation of peasant workers' present marginalization all from five aspects: politics, marketability, institution, culture and individuality. At the same time, it also comes up with an idea that we must fully consider the trends of politics, economy, society and some other factors, which has significantinfluence on the cenozoic migrant workers. And what's more, we need to take feasible measures to guarantee our Cenozoic migrant workers' lawful rights and interests.

  9. Features and dynamic mechanisms of Cenozoic tectonic migration and its impact on the hydrocarbon accumulation in the northern South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Zhengxin; CAI Zhourong; WAN Zhifeng; LYU Baofeng

    2015-01-01

    The northern continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS) is located within the tectonic system of Southeast Asia, an area with a great deal of tectonic migration due to the regional tectonic movements. The available geological and geophysical data of the area are comprehensively analyzed in order to demonstrate the typical migration patterns of the Cenozoic tectonics in the northern SCS caused by the episodes of the Cenozoic tectonic movement. Furthermore, the lateral variation characteristics of the strata and the differ-ent evolution patterns of the main basins' features are assessed. It primarily focus on: (1) the Cenozoic epi-sodic rifting from north to south in the continental margin of the northern SCS; (2) the rifting and depression time of the main basins progressively become younger as one goes from north to south, signifying that the migration of both the tectonics and the sediments within the northern SCS travelled from north to south during the Cenozoic; and (3) the lateral tectonic migration on the direction of EW is not regular in total, but in some local areas the trending of the tectonic migration is from west to east. The analysis of the tectonic migration features of the northern SCS, in combination with the regional tectonic evolution background, indicates that the observed remote lagging effect, resulted from the India-Eurasia plate collision, is the main dynamic mechanism involved in the tectonic migration within the northern SCS. The tectonic migration has significant influence on both the organization of petroleum deposits and on the hydrocarbon accumulation within the basins in the northern SCS; comprehensive understanding of this dynamic system is of great reference value in predicting the hydrocarbon accumulation and has the potential to have an enormous impact in discovering new deep reservoirs for the future oil-gas exploration.

  10. Climate-forcing & Feedbacks of the Late Paleozoic Ice Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanez, I. P.; Brand, U.; Poulsen, C. J.; Horton, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    Evaluating climate-forcing and feedbacks during pre-Cenozoic ice ages requires reconstructing marine-terrestrial linkages between atmospheric composition, the regional hydroclimate expression of mean climate change, ice sheets, and sea-level. Here we evaluate the role of different climate parameters and their linkages during the Carboniferous icehouse through integration of a recently developed ID-TIMS U-Pb constrained sea-level history, brachiopod stable isotope time-series from shallow marine regions of paleotropical Pangaea, atmospheric pCO2 inferred from paleosol minerals and fossil leaf stomatal indices, ice sheet variations constrained by the distribution of high-latitude Gondwanan glacial deposits, and paleoclimate simulations. Within chronostratigraphic uncertainty, long-term sea-level lowstands coincide with glacial maxima defined from high-latitude Gondwanan basins, whereas long-term highstands are coeval with glacial minima suggesting a dynamic late Paleozoic icehouse. Superimposed shorter-term sea-level events define a stepwise onset (late Mississippian) and contraction of Carboniferous ice sheets prior to the initiation of Early Permian ice sheets. Sea level fluctuations, at different temporal scales parallel trends defined by brachiopod oxygen and carbon isotope compositions and paleo-atmospheric pCO2 estimates inferred using mineral and biologic proxies. A protracted (~9 my) stepwise sea level rise beginning in the middle Pennsylvanian and culminating in an earliest Gzhelian peak is coincident with overall increasing CO2 levels throughout this interval and substantially decreased effective moisture in paleotropical Pangaea. This possibly CO2-forced period of waning continental ice sheets and sea-level highstand encompassed a large-scale floral turnover across the mid-to-late Pennyslvanian boundary and the onset of the demise of paleotropical rainforests across much of Pangaea. Ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet climate simulations for this period reveal a

  11. Late Cenozoic Tectonic Deformation in the Dongsha Islands and Adjacent Sea Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Shiguo(吴时国); LIU Zhan(刘展); WANG Wanyin(王万银); GUO Junhua(郭军华); T. Lüdmann; H. K. Wong

    2003-01-01

    Dongsha Island and the adjacent sea area locate at the northern continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS), and is connected to the east by the Manila Trench. Analyses of seismic stratigraphy and gravity, magnetic and drilling wells data led to the discovery of three post-fault sequences (V, VI, VII). Extensive tectonic uplift, magma activity and erosion occurred in Dongsha Island and the adjacent area, where most of the faults in the northeastern SCS were still active during Pliocene and Quaternary. Two groups of faults trending NEE and NW were developed during Late Cenozoic. We conclude that three important tectonic movements, especially Dongsha movement (4.4-5.2 Ma) and Liuhua movement (1.4-1.89 Ma), controlled the structural framework in the Dongsha rise; whose deformation in the east is stronger than that in the west and whose stress field variation suggests that the tectonic uplift in the study area contributed to magmato-tectonic events correlated to the main collision phases between the East China and Taiwan 5-3 and 3-0 Ma ago.

  12. Resolving climate change in the period 15-23 ka in Greenland ice cores: A new application of spectral trend analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, M.G.G.; Nio, D.S.; Böhm, A.R.; Seijmonsbergen, H.C.; de Graaff, L.W.S.

    2009-01-01

    Northern Hemisphere climate history through and following the Last Glacial Maximum is recorded in detail in ice cores from Greenland. However, the period between Greenland Interstadials 1 and 2 (15-23 ka), i.e. the period of deglaciation following the last major glaciation, has been difficult to res

  13. Variability of low flow magnitudes in the Upper Colorado River Basin: identifying trends and relative role of large-scale climate dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pournasiri Poshtiri

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Low flow magnitude in a head water basin is important for planners because minimum available amount of water in a given time period often leads to concerns regarding serious repercussions, in both up and downstream regions. This is a common scenario in arid region like Colorado River basin located in the southwestern US. Low flow variability in Colorado River is due to complex interactions between several natural and anthropogenic factors; but we aim to identify the relative role of climate on varying low flow magnitudes at different spatial locations. The research questions we aim to answer are: Is there a systematic variability in water availability during the driest time of a year or season? How does that vary across locations and is there a link between large-scale climate and low flow variations? Towards that aim we select 17 stream gauge locations, which are identified as "undisturbed" meaning that these stations represent near-natural river flow regimes in the headwater region of Colorado River, which provides a useful resource for assessment of climate and hydrology associations without the confounding factor of major direct (e.g. water abstraction or indirect (e.g. land-use change human modification of flows. A detailed diagnostic analysis gives us fair understanding on the variability of low flow magnitude that is explained by climate. We also present spatial heterogeneity of hydro-climatological linkages that is important for suitable adaptive management measures.

  14. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kafatos

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year, and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times, positive and significant only over a period of six months (December to May. The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033

  15. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979-2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, A. K.; Yang, K.-H. S.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

    2009-12-01

    Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) since 1979-2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years) of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau) is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year), and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year) is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2-3 times, positive and significant) only over a period of six months (December to May). The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic) plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms) over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year) and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033°K/year) also shows

  16. Cenozoic volcanic geology and probable age of inception of basin-range faulting in the southeasternmost Chocolate Mountains, California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1978-02-01

    A complex sequence of Oligocene-age volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks form a major volcanic center in the Picacho area of the southeasternmost Chocolate Mountains, Imperial County, California. Basal-volcanic rocks consist of lava flows and flow breccia of trachybasalt, pyroxene rhyodacite, and pyroxene dacite (32 My old). These volcanic rocks locally overlie fanglomerate and rest unconformably on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. South and southeast of a prominent arcuate fault zone in the central part of the area, the rhyolite ignimbrite (26 My old) forms a major ash-flow sheet. In the southwestern part of the Picacho area the rhyolite ignimbrite interfingers with and is overlain by dacite flows and laharic breccia. The rhyolite ignimbrite and the dacite of Picacho Peak are overlapped by lava flows and breccia of pyroxene andesite (25 My old) that locally rest on pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. The volcanic rocks of the Picacho area form a slightly bimodal volcanic suite consisting chiefly of silicic volcanic rocks with subordinate andesite. Late Miocene augite-olivine basalt is most similar in major-element abundances to transitional alkali-olivine basalt of the Basin and Range province. Normal separation faults in the Picacho area trend northwest and north parallel to major linear mountain ranges in the region. The areal distribution of the 26-My-old rhyolite ignimbrite and the local presence of megabreccia and fanglomerate flanking probable paleohighs suggest that the ignimbrite was erupted over irregular topography controlled by northwest- and north-trending probable basin-range faults. These relations date the inception of faulting in southeasternmost California at pre-26 and probably pre-32 My ago. A transition of basaltic volcanism in the area is dated at 13 My ago. 9 figures, 2 tables.

  17. STUDY ON THE TREND OF ENTIRONMENT CHANGE IN YUNNAN WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE%全球气候变化条件下云南生态环境变化趋势研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李俊梅; 樊林; 段昌群

    2012-01-01

    The global climate change had huge impact on the global ecological environment, society and economy. and it is also an important factor for the regional changes. Under the background of global climate change, the special geographical environment and terrain make the climate of Yunnan and ecological environment evolution very particular. In the past 50 years, the climate and ecological environment of Yunnan have been changed con- spicuously. Extreme weather events happened frequently, biodiversity lost, and the ecological environment has been deteriorated. Through collecting the investigation data of some departments near many years consulting rele- vant experts opinion, the trends of the climate change and ecological environment change of Yunnan under the condition of the global climate change were researched and analysed, and some suggestions were put forward on promoting ecological environment construction, society and economy coordinated development in Yunnan, in order to slow down effectively the influence on the environmental, economic, social development and people's life in Yunnan by the climate change.%全球气候变化对全球的生态环境、社会和经济等产生了巨大的影响,也是影响区域变化的重要因素。在全球气候变化的大背景下,特殊的地理环境以及地形使得云南气候与生态环境的演变存在特殊性。近50来,云南气候与生态环境发生了明显的变化,极端气候事件频繁,生物多样性丧失,生态环境恶化。通过收集调查相关部门多年资料数据,咨询相关专家意见,对全球气候变化条件下,云南气候变化趋势,以及云南生态环境变化趋势进行了研究和分析,提出了促进云南生态环境建设与社会经济协调发展的对策与建议,以便有效应对和减缓气候变化对云南生态环境、经济社会发展和人民生活造成的影响。

  18. The coal-bearing Cenozoic As Pontes Basin (northwestern Spain): geological influence on coal characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabrera, L.; Hagemann, H.W.; Pickel, W.; Saez, A. [Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain). Dept. de Geologia Dinamica, Geofisica i Paleontologia

    1995-03-01

    Lignite deposits in the Cenozoic As Pontes strike-slip basin (northwestern Spain) were formed as a function of specific paleoclimatic conditions and tectonic evolution of the basin. During the early evolutionary stages, the presence of active normal faults and thrusts inside the basin resulted in two subbasins with distinct differences in sedimentary records, with respect to lignite seam occurrence, thickness, areal extent and lithotype development. In contrast, during the late evolutionary stages the basin was not split and a more homogeneous sedimentary record in terms of coal seam occurrence and lithotype characteristics developed. A total of 26 lignite samples, distributed along the basin infill, were analyzed by organic petrography and geochemistry. All are lignite B (ASTM). The lignites deposited during lower basin infill sedimentation (unit 1 and 2) are dark, matrix-rich, mainly huminitic brown coals, with minor bright, liptinitic-rich coal lithotypes. The dark huminitic coals in these units show sedimentological and paleontological evidence of lacustrine influence. Lignites in the upper basin infill (Unit 4) are almost exclusively matrix-rich, huminitic brown coals. The overall coal petrological data trend recorded from the lower to the upper basin infill units agrees with the stratigraphic and sedimentological data, which show a trend of increasingly drier conditions. Development of bright, liptinite-enriched lignite layers was widespread during the early basin evolutionary stages and was influenced by punctuated water-table oscillations. Sedimentological, petrological and organic geochemical data suggest that, although the paleoenvironments where peat deposition took place did not undergo dramatic changes, they were affected by distinguishable variations, linked mostly to the evolution of basin morphology and basin water balance. 52 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Unveiling the diversification dynamics of Australasian predaceous diving beetles in the Cenozoic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toussaint, Emmanuel F A; Condamine, Fabien L; Hawlitschek, Oliver; Watts, Chris H; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

    2015-01-01

    During the Cenozoic, Australia experienced major climatic shifts that have had dramatic ecological consequences for the modern biota. Mesic tropical ecosystems were progressively restricted to the coasts and replaced by arid-adapted floral and faunal communities. Whilst the role of aridification has been investigated in a wide range of terrestrial lineages, the response of freshwater clades remains poorly investigated. To gain insights into the diversification processes underlying a freshwater radiation, we studied the evolutionary history of the Australasian predaceous diving beetles of the tribe Hydroporini (147 described species). We used an integrative approach including the latest methods in phylogenetics, divergence time estimation, ancestral character state reconstruction, and likelihood-based methods of diversification rate estimation. Phylogenies and dating analyses were reconstructed with molecular data from seven genes (mitochondrial and nuclear) for 117 species (plus 12 outgroups). Robust and well-resolved phylogenies indicate a late Oligocene origin of Australasian Hydroporini. Biogeographic analyses suggest an origin in the East Coast region of Australia, and a dynamic biogeographic scenario implying dispersal events. The group successfully colonized the tropical coastal regions carved by a rampant desertification, and also colonized groundwater ecosystems in Central Australia. Diversification rate analyses suggest that the ongoing aridification of Australia initiated in the Miocene contributed to a major wave of extinctions since the late Pliocene probably attributable to an increasing aridity, range contractions and seasonally disruptions resulting from Quaternary climatic changes. When comparing subterranean and epigean genera, our results show that contrasting mechanisms drove their diversification and therefore current diversity pattern. The Australasian Hydroporini radiation reflects a combination of processes that promoted both diversification

  20. Orthorhombic faults system at the onset of the Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic Barents Sea rifting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collanega, Luca; Breda, Anna; Massironi, Matteo

    2016-04-01

    The structures of the Late Mesozoic/Cenozoic Barents Sea rifting have been investigated with multichannel 3D seismics, covering an area of 7700 sqKm in the Hoop Fault Complex, a transitional area between the platform and the marginal basins. The main structural lineaments have been mapped in a time domain 3D surface and their activity ranges have been constrained through the sin-sedimentary thickness variations detected in time-thickness maps. Two main fault systems have been identified: an orthorhombic fault system consisting of two fault sets trending almost perpendicularly one to the other (WNW-ESE and NNE-SSW) and a graben/half-graben system, elongated approximately N-S in the central part of the study area. While the graben/half-graben system can be explained through the theory of Anderson, this landmark theory fails to explain the simultaneous activity of the two fault sets of the orthorhombic system. So far, the models that can better explain orthorhombic fault arrangements are the slip model by Reches (Reches, 1978; Reches, 1983; Reches and Dieterich, 1983) and the odd-axis model by Krantz (Krantz, 1988). However, these models are not definitive and a strong quest to better understand polymodal faulting is actual (Healy et al., 2015). In the study area, the presence of both a classical Andersonian and an orthorhombic system indicates that these models are not alternative but are both effective and necessary to explain faulting in different circumstances. Indeed, the Andersonian plain strain and the orthorhombic deformation have affected different part of the succession during different phases of the rifting. In particular, the orthorhombic system has affected only the Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic interval of the succession and it was the main active system during the initial phase of the rifting. On the other hand, the graben/half-graben system has affected the whole sedimentary succession, with an increasing activity during the development of the rifting. It has

  1. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied...

  2. Degradation of buried ice and permafrost in the Veleta cirque (Sierra Nevada, Spain) from 2006 to 2013 as a response to recent climate trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Ortiz, A.; Oliva, M.; Salvador-Franch, F.; Salvà-Catarineu, M.; Palacios, D.; de Sanjosé-Blasco, J. J.; Tanarro-García, L. M.; Galindo-Zaldívar, J.; Sanz de Galdeano, C.

    2014-09-01

    The Veleta cirque is located at the foot of the Veleta peak, one of the highest summits of the Sierra Nevada National Park (southern Spain). This cirque was the source of a glacier valley during the Quaternary cold periods. During the Little Ice Age it sheltered a small glacier, the most southerly in Europe, about which we have possessed written records since the 17th century. This glacier still had ice residues until the mid-20th century. This ice is no longer visible, but a residue persists along with discontinuous permafrost trapped under strata of rock blocks that make up an incipient rock glacier. From 2006 to 2013, this rock glacier was monitored by measurement of the temperature of the active layer, the degree of snow cover on the ground, movements of the body of the rock glacier and geophysical prospection inside it. The results show that the relict ice and trapped permafrost have been steadily declining. The processes that explain this degradation occur in chain, starting from the external radiation that affects the ground in summer, which is when the temperatures are higher. In effect, when this radiation steadily melts the snow on the ground, the thermal expansive wave advances into the heart of the active layer, reaching the ceiling of the frozen mass, which it then degrades and melts. In this entire linked process, the circulation of meltwaters fulfils a highly significant function, as they act as heat transmitters. The complementary nature of these processes explains the subsidence and continuous changes in the entire clastic pack and the melting of the frozen ceiling on which it rests. This happens in summer in just a few weeks. All these events, in particular the geomorphological ones, take place on the Sierra Nevada peaks within certain climate conditions that are at present unfavourable to the maintenance of snow on the ground in summer. These conditions could be related to recent variations in the climate, starting in the mid-19th century and

  3. Petrogenetic significance of high Fe/Mn ratios of the Cenozoic basalts from Eastern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The Cenozoic basalts from eastern China show commonly high Fe/Mn ratios (average = 68.6 ± 11.5) coupled with OIB-type trace element signature. The Cenozoic basalts form the northern margin and the southern margin of the North China Craton are studied in detail. Model calculations point out that the coupling feature of high Fe/Mn ratio with OIB-type trace element signature of these basalts cannot be produced by neither pyroxene/olivine crystallization nor remelting of previously melted mantle, but require partial melting of a garnet pyroxenite-rich mantle source. Combining these features of the Cenozoic basalts with the Phanerozoic lithospheric evolution of the eastern China, we suggest that the Cenozoic basalts were derived from a garnet pyroxenite-rich mantle source associated with continental crust delamination or oceanic crust subduction.

  4. Petrogenetic significance of high Fe/Mn ratios of the Cenozoic basalts from Eastern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG BinHui; LIU YongSheng; GAO Shan

    2008-01-01

    The Cenozoic basalts from eastern China show commonly high Fe/Mn ratios (average = 68.6 卤 11.5) coupled with OIB-type trace element signature. The Cenozoic basalts form the northern margin and the southern margin of the North China Craton are studied in detail. Model calculations point out that the coupling feature of high Fe/Mn ratio with OIB-type trace element signature of these basalts cannot be produced by neither pyroxene/olivine crystallization nor remelting of previously melted mantle, but require partial melting of a garnet pyroxenite-rich mantle source. Combining these features of the Cenozoic basalts with the Phanerozoic lithospheric evolution of the eastern China, we suggest that the Cenozoic basalts were derived from a garnet pyroxenite-rich mantle source associated with continental crust delamination or oceanic crust subduction.

  5. Types of Cenozoic Mollusca from Java in the Martin Collection of Naturalis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leloux, J.; Wesselingh, F.P.

    2009-01-01

    An updated type catalogue of the Martin Collection (fossil Mollusca, predominantly from the Cenozoic of Java, Indonesia) is presented. Type specimen data, updated locality data, and illustrations are given.

  6. Trends and Progress on Attributions and Responsibility of Global Climate Change%中国关于气候变化归因和责任的研究进展与展望

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张轶鸥; 丑洁明; 董文杰

    2013-01-01

    首先对2000~2011年中国关于气候变化归因和责任研究的相关文献进行分类统计,归纳总结了中国最近十余年的研究进展,在此基础上,对于现阶段研究及存在的问题进行了初步讨论.提出我国在气候变化归因与责任领域研究的基本框架和大体趋势已经确立,“气候变化原因”研究,应在强化多方全面研究和改进研究工具的同时,注重人为原因的探究,将人为原因的探究作为今后研究的重点方向;气候变化责任的研究,应在坚持“共同但有区别责任”立场的前提下,寻求更有力的技术支持,特别是需要构建“全球有序应对气候变化”的研究体系,开展更为全面的地球系统科学模拟研究.%First of all, a mass of documents which are relevant to the attribution and responsibility of climate change from 2001 to 2010 are analyzed and classified in this paper. Based on the summary of research progress in the last 10 years in China, we make a preliminary discussion on the problems at present, and put forward the basic framework and the general trend of rearches about the attributions and responsibilities of climate change. It shows that the research on attribution of climate change should enhance multi comprehensive studies and improve research tools, meanwhile, it should also pay altention to the man - made causes. The researches about the responsibility of climate change should provide more effective technic supports on the premise of adhering to the common but differentiated responsibilities, especially, we should focus on constructing the research system of response to climate change orderly on a global scale and carrying out more comprehensive simulation study of earth system science.

  7. New Trends and Implication of Climate Change Policy of United States%美国应对气候变化政策新动向及其影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱松丽; 王文涛; 高翔; 于宏源

    2013-01-01

    奥巴马第二任期开始以来,美国政府在应对气候变化方面有一系列新动向,包括发布美国国家气候评估报告(草案)、力促相关行政措施出台、推动中美签署《中美应对气候变化联合声明》、针对德班平台谈判提出“轴辐式协议”全球气候治理框架等。一方面,由于国内政治因素的影响,美国的气候变化政策不会发生大的变化;另一方面,由于美国在全球经济、政治和外交中具有强大的综合实力,这些最新动向仍将对国际气候制度走向和全球低碳发展产生一定影响。我国在推动建立公平合理有效的国际气候制度和新型中美大国关系过程中,需谨慎权衡利弊,同时,从立法、财税、金融、标准、低碳技术研发与推广应用方面切实推进我国低碳发展。%New trends of climate change policy of U.S. have been observed since the start of new administration of President Obama at the beginning of 2013, including launching the National Climate Change Assessment ( draft ), promoting administrative options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, pushing the signing of“Sino-US Joint Statement on Climate Change”and proposing“hub-spokes”mechanism under Durban Platform Negotiations. On the one hand, any signiifcant change is not expected since the complex of US climate politics;on the other hand, those new trends may have certain impact on global climate policy direction and low carbon economy development due to the US’s strong impacts on global economy, politics, and other international affairs. China should cautiously weight up the pros and cons when pushing an equal, rational and effective climate regime. At the same time, China should promote the low-carbon economy development by legislation, taxation, ifnancial levels, standards setting, as well as development of low-carbon technologies.

  8. Evidence for trends in UK flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Alice J

    2002-07-15

    Recent major flooding in the UK has raised concern that climate change is causing increases in flood frequency and flood magnitude. This paper considers whether UK flood data provide evidence of increasing trends in fluvial floods. The analysis examines both local and national flood series and investigates the effect of climate variability on trend detection. The results suggest that there have been trends towards more protracted high flows over the last 30-50 years, but that this could be accounted for as part of climatic variation rather than climate change. There is no statistical evidence of a long-term trend in flooding over the last 80-120 years. Thus, although climate change could be influencing floods, direct analysis of flood records does not yet provide proof.

  9. Mesozoic and Cenozoic uplift and exhumation of the Bogda Mountain, NW China:Evidence from apatite fission track analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenhao Tang; Zhicheng Zhang; Jianfeng Li; Ke Li; Zhiwen Luo; Yan Chen

    2015-01-01

    Apatite fission track (AFT) analysis on samples collected from a Paleozoic series is used to constrain the cooling history of the Bogda Mountain, northwest China. AFT ages range from 136.2 to 85.6 Ma and are younger than rock depositional ages and the mean confined track lengths (11.0e13.2 mm) mostly showing unimodal distribution are shorten, indicating significant track-annealing. Thermal histories modeling based on the distribution of fission-track lengths combined with the regional geological data show that two rapid cooling phases occurred in the latest Jurassiceearly Cretaceous and the OligoceneeMiocene. Those new data together with previous published data show that the AFT ages become younger from the southwest to northeast in the western Bogda Mountain and its adjacent areas. The fission-track ages of the southwest area are relatively older (>100 Ma), recording the earlier rapid uplift phase during the late JurassiceCretaceous, while the ages in the north pied-mont of the Bogda Mountain (namely the northeast part) are younger (<60 Ma), mainly reflecting the later rapid uplift phase in the OligoceneeMiocene. The trend of younger AFT ages towards the northeast might be explained by post-Cretaceous large-scale crustal tilting towards the southwest. In the thrust fault-dominated northern limbs of the Bogda Mountain, AFT ages reveal a discontinuous pattern with age-jumps across the major fault zones, showing a possible strata tilting across each thrust faults due to the thrust ramps during the Cenozoic. The two rapid uplift stages might be related to the accretion and collision in the southern margin of the Asian continent during the late Jurassic and late Cenozoic, respectively.

  10. Mesozoic and Cenozoic uplift and exhumation of the Bogda Mountain, NW China: Evidence from apatite fission track analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenhao Tang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Apatite fission track (AFT analysis on samples collected from a Paleozoic series is used to constrain the cooling history of the Bogda Mountain, northwest China. AFT ages range from 136.2 to 85.6 Ma and are younger than rock depositional ages and the mean confined track lengths (11.0–13.2 μm mostly showing unimodal distribution are shorten, indicating significant track-annealing. Thermal histories modeling based on the distribution of fission-track lengths combined with the regional geological data show that two rapid cooling phases occurred in the latest Jurassic–early Cretaceous and the Oligocene–Miocene. Those new data together with previous published data show that the AFT ages become younger from the southwest to northeast in the western Bogda Mountain and its adjacent areas. The fission-track ages of the southwest area are relatively older (>100 Ma, recording the earlier rapid uplift phase during the late Jurassic–Cretaceous, while the ages in the north piedmont of the Bogda Mountain (namely the northeast part are younger (<60 Ma, mainly reflecting the later rapid uplift phase in the Oligocene–Miocene. The trend of younger AFT ages towards the northeast might be explained by post-Cretaceous large-scale crustal tilting towards the southwest. In the thrust fault-dominated northern limbs of the Bogda Mountain, AFT ages reveal a discontinuous pattern with age-jumps across the major fault zones, showing a possible strata tilting across each thrust faults due to the thrust ramps during the Cenozoic. The two rapid uplift stages might be related to the accretion and collision in the southern margin of the Asian continent during the late Jurassic and late Cenozoic, respectively.

  11. Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cueto, Rafael O. García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

  12. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Afshan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%. Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five mete- orological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt, water-budget-based system (Wb-bs indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i sheep-goats and cattle- buffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situa- tion of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical dis- tribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recom- mended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  13. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshan, Kiran; Fortes-Lima, Cesar A; Artigas, Patricio; Valero, Adela M; Qayyum, Mazhar; Mas-Coma, Santiago

    2014-05-01

    Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%). Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five meteorological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt), water-budget-based system (Wb-bs) indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i) sheep-goats and cattlebuffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii) overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii) co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv) disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situation of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical distribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recommended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  14. Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cueto, Rafael O García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

  15. Cenozoic History of Paleo-Currents through the Central American Seaway: Insights from Deep Sea Sediments and Outcrops in Panama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, A. J.; Martin, E. E.

    2015-12-01

    Paleontologic, oceanographic, and ecologic studies suggest gradual shoaling of the Central American Seaway between ~15 to 2 Ma that caused a stepwise shutdown of deep, intermediate, and shallow water exchange between the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea. This diminishing communication has been further associated with changes in surface and deep ocean currents, atmospheric flow, and ultimately regional and global climate. Recent studies of the Isthmus of Panama's exhumation history, palm phylogenies, and fossil/molecularly derived migration rates, however, suggest that the isthmus may have risen much earlier. An earlier rise scenario would call into question many accepted consequences of this gateway event under the 'Panama Hypothesis,' including strengthened thermohaline circulation, North Atlantic Deep Water production, the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, and the Great American Biotic Interchange. Despite considerable research on the Neogene, few paleoceanographic studies have directly examined long-term changes in the adjacent oceans over the Cenozoic to evaluate the potential for earlier events in the closure history of the seaway. In this study, we extend records of bottom water circulation reconstructed from the Nd-isotopes of fish teeth from several Caribbean International Ocean Discovery Program sediment cores (ODP Sites 998, 999, 1000). These reconstructions clearly depict an increase in Pacific volcanism throughout the Cenozoic and sustained transport of Pacific waters into the Caribbean basin from ~50 to 9 Ma, although there appear to be interesting complexities within the Caribbean basin itself. We also present preliminary investigations into the potential of Nd-isotopic analyses on fossil fish teeth recovered from outcrops and exposures of marine strata across Panama to further elucidate the regional dynamics and shoaling history of the Central American Seaway.

  16. Cenozoic intracontinental deformation of the Kopeh Dagh Belt, Northeastern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Yang; Wan, Bo; Chen, Ling; Talebian, Morteza

    2016-04-01

    Compressional intracontinental orogens represent large tectonic zones far from plate boundaries. Since intracontinental mountain belts cannot be framed in the conventional plate tectonics theory, several hypotheses have been proposed to account for the formations of these mountain belts. The far-field effect of collision/subduction at plate margins is now well accepted for the origin and evolution of the intracontinental crust thickening, as exemplified by the Miocene tectonics of central Asia. In northern Iran, the Binalud-Alborz mountain belt witnessed the Triassic tectonothermal events (Cimmerian orogeny), which are interpreted as the result of the Paleotethys Ocean closure between the Eurasia and Central Iran blocks. The Kopeh Dagh Belt, located to the north of the Binalud-Alborz Belt, has experienced two significant tectonic phases: (1) Jurassic to Eocene rifting with more than 7 km of sediments; and (2) Late Eocene-Early Oligocene to Quaternary continuous compression. Due to the high seismicity, deformation associated with earthquakes has received more and more attention; however, the deformation pattern and architecture of this range remain poorly understood. Detailed field observations on the Cenozoic deformation indicate that the Kopeh Dagh Belt can be divided into a western zone and an eastern zone, separated by a series of dextral strike-slip faults, i.e. the Bakharden-Quchan Fault System. The eastern zone characterized by km-scale box-fold structures, associated with southwest-dipping reverse faults and top-to-the NE kinematics. In contrast, the western zone shows top-to-the SW kinematics, and the deformation intensifies from NE to SW. In the northern part of this zone, large-scale asymmetrical anticlines exhibit SW-directed vergence with subordinate thrusts and folds, whereas symmetrical anticlines are observed in the southern part. In regard to its tectonic feature, the Kopeh Dagh Belt is a typical Cenozoic intracontinental belt without ophiolites or

  17. ACEX: A First Look at Arctic Ocean Cenozoic History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, K.; Backman, J.

    2004-12-01

    The first Integrated Ocean Drilling Program mission specificplatform expedition (ACEX - Arctic Coring Expedition) drilled and recovered core from five holes at four sites through Cenozoic sediments draping the crest of the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Ocean. Coring continued into the underlying Cretaceous sedimentary bedrock. Sites are located only a few nautical miles apart along a single seismic line (AWI-91090), showing an identical and coherent Cenozoic seismostratigraphy. Preliminary results from shipboard investigations of core-catcher-based bio- and lithostratigraphy, pore water analyses and core logger data describe a thick (~160 m) middle Miocene through Pleistocene sequence that shows large amplitude, cyclic variability in the density, magnetic susceptibility and acoustic velocity of the sediments. Sediments are largely carbonate free. Pleistocene sedimentation rates are close to 3 cm/ka, whereas Pliocene sediments are by-and-large missing. A sharp change in physical properties at ~200 m defines the transition into a 200+ m thick Paleogene sequence that is initially dominated by large numbers of dinoflagellate cysts. The early Miocene, Oligocene and late Eocene appear to be largely missing in a hiatus. However, a 32 m thick interval separates the overlying middle Miocene from the underlying middle Eocene and presumably preserves some of the early Neogene and late Paleogene sections. Dinoflagellate cysts, diatoms, ebridians and silicoflagellates are common to abundant in the middle Eocene section, which bottoms in a spectacular layer showing massive occurrences of glochidia and massulae (megaspores) of the freshwater hydropterid fern Azolla (duckweed) at the early/middle Eocene boundary (~306 m), suggesting strongly reduced surface water salinity or perhaps even a brief episode of fresh water conditions at the surface. Biosilica is not present prior to the late early Eocene (~320 m). The (sub-) tropical dinoflagellate species Apectodinium augustum

  18. Arsenogoyazite in Cenozoic volcanic tuff at Tabalaopa Basin, Chihuahua, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Goodell, P.

    2012-12-01

    Arsenogoyazite has been identified in Cenozoic volcanic tuff at Tabalaopa Basin, Chihuahua, Mexico. Tabalaopa Basin contains volcanic strata and the unconsolidated Quaternary deposit. Cenozoic volcanic tuff forms the low hill terrene in this area. It is a major reservoir for the City of Chihuahua groundwater. Arsenic anomaly (more than 20 ppb) has been observed at El Mimbre, northeast of the city. The exposed reddish color volcanic rocks are felsic welded tuff and rhyolite. Sanidine, quartz, and biotite phenocrysts show linear distribution within the fine grain matrix. The rocks contain large amount of vesicles which are lineated with the welding bends. White and colorless microsize crystals formed on the well of the cavities and the majority of them are K-feldspar. Quartz, Ti-magnetite, and arsenogoyazite are coexisting with feldspars. The sizes of the crystals in the cavities are 10 to several 10s of micrometers. The arsenic x-ray maps have been collected for the rock sections to locate the arsenic minerals. The crystals in cavities show euhedral shape. Most arsenic containing crystals have a near cubic form with triangle surfaces at some corners. The high resolution field-emission SEM images have been collected to study the symmetry of the crystals. EDS spectra for the high arsenic phases show three major elements As-Al-Sr and also minor amount of P-S-REE-Ca-Fe-Si. Since the arsenic minerals are growing on the wall of the vesicle, it is difficult to perform good electron microprobe analysis. Some primary microprobe data give following results in weight percent: SrO 11.8-13.1, CaO 0.2-0.3, FeO 0.3-0.5, Al2O3 28.6-30.9, La2O3 2.4-2.5, Ce2O3 2.3-.24, SiO2 1.1-3.6, As2O5 32.4-35.2, P2O5 1.7-1.9, SO3 0.8-1.4. This chemistry is similar to the reported arsenogoyazite chemical data. So this high arsenic phase is identified as arsenogoyazite. The arsenic anomaly in groundwater at El Mimbre, Chihuahua should be contributed from this arsenic mineral phase in the strata.

  19. 近50年西宁市旅游气候舒适度变化研究%Tourism Comfort Climate Trends of Xining City in the Past 50 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李春花; 陈蓉; 刘峰贵; 罗正霞

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation of the tourism climate resources not only provides a scientific basis for regional tourism sustainable development of resources,but also helps the tourists to choose the proper travel time.Using monthly average temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine time of Xining area during 1 961 - 2010,the authors'work is as follows:calculating temperature and humidity index (TH I )and wind effect index(K );analyzing the variation of the two indices during the year from January to December in the past fifty years;studying the change trend characteristics of two indices within four seasons over the past 50 years;making two indices corresponding the level of human physiological feel and obtaining comfort level of tourists each month from year by year in Xining City based on physiological climate classification indicators.The results show that:(1 )yearly temperature and humidity index curve appears inverted “U”,the index trend shows first rise and then decrease,the period of peak is from June to August,and yearly amplitude of TH I has a decreasing trend over time.The linear increasing rate of winter is 7 ~ 20 times of other seasons,TH I amplitude changes in different seasons are much more apparent,winter range in 2~3,spring range of 8~10,15~17 in summer,the autumn in 7~9,and the fluc-tuation amplitude of inter-annual variability of it is much larger than that of spring,summer and autumn;(2)yearly wind effect index curve continues to show inverted “U”type,the index trends shows a charac-teristic of first rise and then decrease,and the yearly amplitude also becomes smaller over time.Peak period (K >-600,human feelings for the cool,comfortable and warm)are extended by seven months of 1 975 to the nine months of 2005;Inter-annual K in various seasonal has obvious increasing trend,the linear increasing rate of summer is far higher than that of winter,reflect that the warm and comfortable trend of Xining region is more obvious;(3 )In the past 50

  20. Analysis on the climate risk degree and change trend of cotton in Hebei Province%河北省棉花气候风险度及其变化趋势分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马春平; 姚树然

    2014-01-01

    In order to discuss the spatial and temporal distribution regulation of climate risk in the cotton production in Hebei Province ,have analyzed the air temperature ,precipitation ,sunshine hours in each cotton growth stage ,climate risk degree and its spatial and temporal changing trend by using the meteorologic data and cotton yield in 21 cotton plant-ing counties of Hebei Province from1970 to 2011 .The results showed that :The biggest climate element risk degree was the precipitation ,which was from 0 .138 to 0 .267 ,the secondly was the temperature with 0 .007 to 0 .173 ,the lowest was sunshine hours ,which was 0 .019 to 0 .04 .The climate element risk degree was different in each growth stage ,also the spatial and temporal changing tendency had obvious difference .The spatial distribution of risk degree has obvious re-gional characteristics ,such as the risk degree in south cotton region was higher than the mid-northern region .From the historical change trend ,the precipitation risk degree was increased in seedling stage and flowering and boll -forming stag , but decreased in other growth stages ,among them the decrease was more obviously in the flower and boll stage and open -ing stages .The air temperature risk degree was slightly increased in the flower and boll stage ,but in other stages was slightly decreased .The risk degree of sunshine hours excepted the planting stage ,total had the increasing trend .This re-search results have the important significance for the cotton production layout and scientific decision-making in Hebei Province .%为了更好地探讨河北省棉花生产中气候风险的时空分布规律,利用河北省21个棉花种植县1970-2011年气象和棉花产量数据,对棉花各个发育期气温、降水、日照及气候风险度及其时空变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:棉花各气候要素风险度降水最大,为0.138~0.267;其次为温度,为0.007~0.173;日照最小,为0.019~0.04

  1. K-Ar geochronology of the late cenozoic volcanic rocks of the Cordillera Occidental, southernmost Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosdal, Richard M.; Farrar, Edward; Clark, Alan H.

    1981-05-01

    Twenty-four K-Ar radiometric ages are presented for late Cenozoic continental volcanic rocks of the Cordillera Occidental of southernmost Perú (lat. 16° 57'-17° 36'S). Rhyodacitic ignimbrite eruptions began in this transect during the Late Oligocene and continued episodically through the Miocene. The development of andesitic-dacitic strato volcanoes was initiated in the Pliocene and continues to the present. The earliest ignimbrite flows (25.3-22.7 Ma) are intercalated in the upper, coarsely-elastic member of the Moquegua Formation and demonstrate that this sedimentary unit accumulated in a trough, parallel to Andean tectonic trends, largely in the Oligocene. More voluminous ash-flow eruptions prevailed in the Early Miocene (22.8-17.6 Ma) and formed the extensively preserved Huaylillas Formation. This episode was coeval with a major phase of Andean uplift, and the pyroclastics overlie an erosional surface of regional extent incised into a Paleogene volcano-plutonic arc terrain. An age span of 14.2-8.9 Ma (mid-Late Miocene) is indicated for the younger Chuntacala Formation, which again comprises felsic ignimbrite flows, largely restricted to valleys incised into the pre-Huaylillas Formation lithologies, and, at lower altitudes, an extensive aggradational elastic facies. The youngest areally extensive ignimbrites, constituting the Sencca Formation, were extruded during the Late Miocene. In the earliest Pliocene, the ignimbrites were succeeded by more voluminous calcalkaline, intermediate flows which generated numerous large and small stratovolcanoes; these range in age from 5.3 to 1.6 Ma. Present-day, or Holocene, volcanism is restricted to several large stratovolcanoes which had begun their development during the Pleistocene (by 0.7 Ma). The late Oligocene/Early Miocene (ca. 22-23 Ma) reactivation of the volcanic arc coincided with a comparable increase in magmatic activity throughout much of the Cordilleras Occidental and Oriental of the Central Andes.

  2. Trace Element Geochemistry of Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks in Shandong Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈道公; 李彬贤; 等

    1989-01-01

    The Cenozoic volcanic rock of Shandong Province are mainly alkalic and strongly alkalic basaltic rocks.The Contents of major and trace elements including transitional,incompatible and rare-earth elements were determined.The chemical characterisitics of major and trace elements indicate that these basaltic rocks were derived from a mantle source and probably represent a primary magma,I,e.,unmodifiecd partical melts of mantle peridotite in terms of Mg values,correlatione between P2O5 and Ce,Sr,Ni and Rb concentrations,mantle xenoliths,etc.The abundances of trace elements vary systematically from west to east.The compatible transition elements such as Co,Ni,and Cr show a remarkable depletion,whereas the incompatible and rare-earth elements are abundant as viewed from the chondrite-nor-malized patterns.The chemical composition and correlation are consistent with the tectonic setting.According to the batch and fractional partial melting theory,the trace element contents of Shandong volcanic rocks can be calculated from the two-component mixing model.

  3. Late Cenozoic sedimentary and tectonic history of south Buton, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortuin, A. R.; De Smet, M. E. M.; Hadiwasastra, S.; Van Marle, L. J.; Troelstra, S. R.; Tjokrosapoetro, S.

    A description and interpretation are given of the Upper Cenozoic sedimentary record of south Buton. Various sections and outcrops were studied and sampled for their microfossil content, to provide age and paleobathymetrical data. Together with information from the literature, these data from the base for a geohistory analysis to evaluate the vertical motions. Deposition started some 11 Ma ago, after the main deformation of the island, which was related to the collision of a microplate carrying Buton, with the southeast arm of Sulawesi. Coarse and fine terrigenous debris accumulated in a rapidly subsiding foreland basin; subsidence may have exceeded 100 cm/ka. When the rate of subsidence decreased a late Miocene-early Pliocene period of quiet pelagic sedimentation followed. From the late Pliocene onwards (around 3.5 Ma BP) an overall uplift took place, with rates between 30-120 cm/ka. This drastic change is explained by the collision of Buton with a submerged microcontinent that presently forms the Tukang Besi platform, situated southeast of Buton, which interaction resulted in wrench type tectonics and a clockwise rotation of over 60° for south Buton.

  4. A stable Cenozoic geologic time scale is indispensable

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Amos Salvador

    2006-01-01

    @@ A stable, standard geologic time scale is indispensable for the clear and precise communication among geologists; it is a basic tool of geologic work. Considerable progress has been made to achieve such a stable time scale. However, during the last few years several proposals have been made to modify the Cenozoic section of the geologic time scale that threaten to destabilize it.Seven articles published in Episodes since 2000 that could contribute to this destabilization are discussed.They provide excellent examples of the profusion of different terminologies, hierarchies, and stratigraphic relationships that have been proposed: to eliminate the Tertiary and the Quaternary or to raise their rank to suberathems; to extend the Neogene to the present; to make the Quaternary a formal subsystem of the Neogene, or consider it an informal stratigraphic unit; to eliminate the Holocene, and to decouple the base of the Pleistocene from the base of the Quaternary. If adopted,these proposals would cause nothing but great confusion and controversy. They disregard the clear preferences of geologists the world over as reflected by the terminology they have been using for many decades. Common sense would dictate the continued use of this terminology in its current, widely accepted form.

  5. The tectonic uplift of the Hua Shan in the Cenozoic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Six granite samples were collected from sixdifference elevation locations at the Hua Shah in a mainridge of the Qinling Mountain. Apatite and zircon separatedfrom these six samples were dated by the fission track tech-nique. An assessment of the Cenozoic uplift or exhumationrate was obtained from the altitude difference of samplingsamples dated by fission track, and from the difference offission track dates of both apatite and zircon for a sample.The preliminary results suggest that the beginning of upliftof the Hua Shan was as early as 68.2 MaBP and the upliftrates for different periods are 0.02-0.19 mm/a (from theelevation difference) or 0.12-0.16 mm/a (from two mineralfission track dates). The average uplift rate is 0.12 mm/a(from the elevation difference) or 0.14 mm/a (from two min-eral fission track dates). The uplift of the Hua Shan mightaccelerate since (17.8+2.0) MaBP, and the average uplift rateis about 0.19 mm/a.

  6. Successor Characteristics of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Songliao Basins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Zhongquan; Timothy KUSKY; YING Danlin; GUO Xiaoyu; LI Hongkui

    2008-01-01

    The Songliao basin is a complex successor basin that was initiated in the Mesozoic and experienced multiple periods of reactivation. Based on seismic and drilling data, as well as regional geologic research, we suggest that the Songliao basin contains several different successor basins resting on top of Carboniferous-Permian folded strata forming the basement to the Songliao basin. These basins include the Triassic-Mid Jurassic Paleo-foreland basin, the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous downfaulted basin, and an early Cretaceous depressed basin (since the Denglouku Group). This paper presents a systematic study of the basin-mountain interactions, and reveals that there are different types of prototype basin at different geologic times. These prototype basins sequentially superimposed and formed the large Songliao basin. Discovery of the Triassic-early Middle Jurassic paleo-foreland basin fills a Triassic-early Middle Jurassic gap in the geologic history of the Songliao basin. The paleoforeland basin, downfaulted basin, and depressed thermal subsidence basin all together represent the whole Mesozoic-Cenozoic geologic history and deformation of the Songliao basin. Discovery of the Triassic-early Middle Jurassic paleo-foreland basin plays an important role both for deep natural gas exploration and the study of basin-mountain coupling in north China and eastern China in general. This example gives dramatic evidence that we should give much more attention to the polyphase tectonic evolution of related basins for the next phase of exploration and study.

  7. Pre-Cenozoic tectonic framework of Central America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horne, G.S.

    1985-01-01

    Central America (C.A.) lies along the junctions of five crustal plates at the western edge of the Caribbean. Major fault zones divide it into at least three blocks, each of which has experienced a distinct tectonic history. Although the region has been dominated by plate interactions during the Cenozoic, paleogeographic and palinspastic relations among the various blocks is increasingly obscure and conjectural back through the Phanerozoic. Pre-Mesozoic rocks are unknown in southern C.A., but are widespread as metamorphic basement complexes in northern C.A. The Maya basement consists of Precambrian igneous massifs and Lower Paleozoic metasedimentary sequences cut by mid-Paleozoic plutons, unconformably overlain locally by Upper Paleozoic terrestrial-to-marine strata. The Chorotega-Choco basement is a Late Mesozoic ophiolite sequence accreted with Upper Cretaceous and Lower Tertiary deep marine volcanic and sedimentary strata into a forearc subduction complex along the Pacific margin. By contrast, Mesozoic successions on the Maya and Chortis blocks are cratonic and grossly similar, consisting of basal transgressive clastics, one or more thick Lower Cretaceous rudistid limestone units, and fluvial-deltaic terrigenous redbed sequences; sections vary in detail locally, and evaporites are common on the Maya block. The Late Cretaceous along the Maya-Chortis boundary was characterized by plate collision, ophiolite obduction, and sinistral block translation.

  8. Early Cenozoic "dome like" exhumation around the Irish Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doepke, Daniel; Cogné, Nathan; Chew, David; Stuart, Fin

    2016-04-01

    Despite decades of research the Early Cenozoic exhumation history of Ireland and Britain is still poorly understood and subject to contentious debate (see Davis et al., 2012 and subsequent comments). Previous studies have attributed the Cenozoic exhumation history of Ireland and Britain mainly to: (a) Paleogene - Neogene far-field stress between the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine collision (Ziegler et al., 1995; Hillis et al., 2008) or (b) early Paleogene mantle driven magmatic underplating associated with the development of the proto-Iceland mantle plume beneath the Irish Sea (Brodie and White, 1994; Al-Kindi et al., 2003). The major differences between the two hypotheses are the pattern and timing of spatial exhumation. This project thus seeks to investigate the timing and mechanisms of late Mesozoic - early Cenozoic exhumation on the onshore part of the British Isles by using a combination of apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) data, which we then model using the QTQt program of Gallagher (2012) to better constrain the modelled thermal histories. Our studied area centres on the margins of the Irish Sea, but includes all Ireland and western Britain. Overall we analysed 74 samples for AFT and 66 samples for AHe dating. In particular, our results include ten pseudo-vertical profiles. The AFT ages display a wide range of ages from early Carboniferous in Scotland to early Eocene in central Ireland. Our AHe ages range from mid Permian on Shetland to Eocene Ft-corrected. The AFT data do not show any specific spatial distribution, however, the Ft-corrected AHe ages around the Irish Sea only focus around late Cretaceous to Eocene suggesting an important thermal event around this time. The modelled thermal histories of samples located around the Irish Sea and western Scotland show a clear late Cretaceous to early Paleogene cooling event which is not present elsewhere. The distribution of this cooling event is broadly consistent

  9. Latitudinal-Related Variation in Wintering Population Trends of Greylag Geese (Anser Anser along the Atlantic Flyway: A Response to Climate Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Ramo

    Full Text Available The unusually high quality of census data for large waterbirds in Europe facilitates the study of how population change varies across a broad geographical range and relates to global change. The wintering population of the greylag goose Anser anser in the Atlantic flyway spanning between Sweden and Spain has increased from 120 000 to 610 000 individuals over the past three decades, and expanded its wintering range northwards. Although population sizes recorded in January have increased in all seven countries in the wintering range, we found a pronounced northwards latitudinal effect in which the rate of increase is higher at greater latitudes, causing a constant shift in the centre of gravity for the spatial distribution of wintering geese. Local winter temperatures have a strong influence on goose numbers but in a manner that is also dependent on latitude, with the partial effect of temperature (while controlling for the increasing population trend between years being negative at the south end and positive at the north end of the flyway. Contrary to assumptions in the literature, the expansion of crops exploited by greylag geese has made little contribution to the increases in population size. Only in one case (expansion of winter cereals in Denmark did we find evidence of an effect of changing land use. The expanding and shifting greylag population is likely to have increasing impacts on habitats in northern Europe during the course of this century.

  10. Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21st century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos A.; Maier, Harald; Frühauf, Cathleen; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.

  11. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  12. Improving the Ginkgo CO2 barometer: Implications for the early Cenozoic atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Richard S.; Wing, Scott L.

    2016-04-01

    Stomatal properties of fossil Ginkgo have been used widely to infer the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the geological past (paleo-pCO2). Many of these estimates of paleo-pCO2 have relied on the inverse correlation between pCO2 and stomatal index (SI - the proportion of epidermal cells that are stomata) observed in recent Ginkgo biloba, and therefore depend on the accuracy of this relationship. The SI - pCO2 relationship in G. biloba has not been well documented, however. Here we present new measurements of SI for leaves of G. biloba that grew under pCO2 from 290 to 430 ppm. We prepared and imaged all specimens using a consistent procedure and photo-documented each count. As in prior studies, we found a significant inverse relationship between SI and pCO2, however, the relationship is more linear, has a shallower slope, and a lower correlation coefficient than previously reported. We examined leaves of G. biloba grown under pCO2 of 1500 ppm, but found they had highly variable SI and a large proportion of malformed stomata. We also measured stomatal dimensions, stomatal density, and the carbon isotope composition of G. biloba leaves in order to test a mechanistic model for inferring pCO2. This model overestimated observed pCO2, performing less well than the SI method between 290 and 430 ppm. We used our revised SI-pCO2 response curve, and new observations of selected fossils, to estimate late Cretaceous and Cenozoic pCO2 from fossil Ginkgo adiantoides. All but one of the new estimates is below 800 ppm, and together they show little long-term change in pCO2 or relation to global temperature. The low Paleogene pCO2 levels indicated by the Ginkgo SI proxy are not consistent with the high pCO2 inferred by some climate and carbon cycle models. We cannot currently resolve the discrepancy, but greater agreement between proxy data and models may come from a better understanding of the stomatal response of G. biloba to elevated pCO2, better counts and measurements of

  13. Cenozoic right-lateral slip on the Great Glen Fault, Scotland: Additional Evidence and Possible Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Breton, E.; Cobbold, P. R.; Zanella, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Great Glen Fault (GGF) trends NNE-SSW across all of Northern Scotland, separating two Neoproterozoic supergroups (Moine and Dalradian). The GGF developed as a left-lateral fault during the Caledonian Orogeny (Ordovician to Early Devonian). However, according to previous studies (involving seismic data from the Moray Firth and analyses of Tertiary dyke swarms in NW Scotland), the GGF reactivated right-laterally in the Tertiary. Here we present additional evidence for this later phase, from a study of Jurassic outcrops along the GGF and the nearby Helmsdale Fault. At Eathie and Shandwick, on the NE coast of Scotland, Jurassic strata of marine origin (mostly shale) crop out along the GGF, in contact with Neoproterozoic basement or Devonian Old Red Sandstone. Minor folds and faults in these outcrops indicate post-depositional right-lateral slip, under transpression. In the shale, we have also found bedding-parallel calcite veins ('beef' and 'cone-in-cone'). If these veins provide evidence for overpressure development and maturation of organic matter at significant depth (as they do in other basins), the host sediment must have accumulated deeper offshore in the Moray Firth. Therefore, the Jurassic strata at Eathie and Shandwick must have been subject to Cenozoic exhumation during right-lateral displacement along the GGF. At Helmsdale, according to previous studies, the Jurassic 'Boulder Beds' accumulated during a period of normal faulting on the Helmsdale Fault. There the sedimentary facies are more proximal than those at Eathie and Shandwick and abundant conglomerate contains Devonian clasts but no 'beef'. However we have found steep calcite veins, which cut the entire Jurassic sequence. Their sigmoidal shapes indicate left-lateral slip along the Helmsdale fault zone. Such a motion is compatible with right-lateral displacement on the GGF. Indeed, according to previous studies, folds between the Helmsdale Fault and the GGF may have developed as a result of opposing

  14. Early Eocene climatic optimum: Environmental impact on the North Iberian continental margin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Payros, A.; Ortiz, S.; Millán, I.; Arostegi, J.; Orue-Etxebarria, X.; Apellaniz, E.

    2015-01-01

    The early Eocene climatic optimum, which constituted the peak of the long-term early Cenozoic global warming, had a significant impact on the environmental evolution of terrestrial and oceanic areas. Surprisingly, however, its influence on continental margins is poorly known. New insights are provid

  15. Cenozoic structures and the tectonic evolution of the eastern North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, O.R.; Nielsen, S.B.; Egholm, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    . These structures have in the last decades been an integrated part of the discussions about subsidence and uplift of not only the interior of the basin but also of the basin margin. Abundant 2D and 3D seismic data and new depositional models enable detailed analysis and reinterpretation of where and when basement......Abundant seismic sections and well data from the Cenozoic succession in the eastern North Sea area generally reveal normal faulting, salt tectonics and localized tectonic inversion. However, inferences on the Cenozoic dynamic evolution of the region require thorough analysis of interactions between......). Furthermore, prograding Oligocene and Miocene units in combination with thermal and loading induced differential subsidence between the basins and the Ringkøbing-Fyn High controlled the Cenozoic reactivations of the main coverfaults. The detaching cover faults generated additional accommodation space, which...

  16. Early Cenozoic tropical climate: report from the Tanzania Onshore Paleogene Integrated Coring (TOPIC) workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, P. N.; Hudson, W.

    2014-12-01

    We are currently developing a proposal for a new International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) project to recover a stratigraphic and paleoclimatic record from the full succession of Eocene hemipelagic sediments that are now exposed on land in southern Tanzania. Funding for a workshop was provided by ICDP, and the project was advertised in the normal way. A group of about 30 delegates assembled in Dar-es-Salaam for 3 intensive days of discussion, project development, and proposal writing. The event was hosted by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and was attended by several geologists, geochemists, geophysicists, and micropaleontologists from TPDC and the University of Dar-es-Salaam. International delegates were from Canada, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and United States (and we also have project partners from Australia, Belgium, and Sweden who were not able to attend). Some of the scientists are veterans of previous scientific drilling in the area, but over half are new on the scene, mostly having been attracted by Tanzania's reputation for world-class paleoclimate archives. Here we outline the broad aims of the proposed drilling and give a flavor of the discussions and the way our proposal developed during the workshop. A video of the workshop with an introduction to the scientific goals and interviews of many of the participants is available at http://vimeo.com/107911777.

  17. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    ) changed the erosional regime in western Scandinavia from fluvial (inefficient in tectonically stable settings, almost regardless of the amount of precipitation) to glacial. Glacial erosion is much more effective and is apparently able to outpace tectonic processes responsible for development of high...

  18. The Cenozoic geological evolution of the Central and Northern North Sea based on seismic sequence stratigraphy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordt, Henrik

    1996-03-01

    This thesis represents scientific results from seismic sequence stratigraphic investigations. These investigations and results are integrated into an ongoing mineralogical study of the Cenozoic deposits. the main results from this mineralogical study are presented and discussed. The seismic investigations have provided boundary conditions for a forward modelling study of the Cenozoic depositional history. Results from the forward modelling are presented as they emphasise the influence of tectonics on sequence development. The tectonic motions described were important for the formation of the large oil and gas fields in the North Sea.

  19. Shallow gas in Cenozoic sediments of the Southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trampe, Anna F.; Lutz, Rüdiger; Franke, Dieter; Thöle, Hauke; Arfai, Jashar

    2013-04-01

    Shallow petroleum systems in the southern North Sea are known for several decades but they were not actively explored for a long time. In recent years these unconventional shallow petroleum systems are studied in greater detail and one shallow gas field (A-12) is in production in the Netherlands. Additionally, oil was encountered in Miocene sandstones in the southern Danish North Sea (Lille John well) just north of the Danish-German border. Seismic amplitude anomalies are an indication for hydrocarbons in sediments. Therefore we have mapped the occurrence of seismic amplitude anomalies in the German North Sea based on more than 25.000 km of 2D seismic data and around 4.000 km2 of 3D seismic data. Amplitude anomalies are ubiquitous phenomena in the study area. These anomalies are not only caused by hydrocarbons but also by changing lithologies e.g. peat or fluid migration. Therefore several classes of seismic anomalies, e.g. bright spots, chimneys, blanking areas and velocity pull-down were mapped. Examples for these classes were studied with AVO (amplitude variation with offset) analyses to verify the existence or non-existence of gas in the sediments. Shallow gas can be produced and transported through the dense pipeline grid of the southern and central North Sea or it could be burned offshore close to wind parks in small power plants and the electric energy then transported through the existing power connections of the wind parks. Thus enabling a continuous energy supply during calm wind periods. This study is carried out within the framework of the project "Geoscientific Potential of the German North Sea (GPDN)" in which the Cenozoic sedimentary system was mapped in great detail. A detailed model of delta evolution (Baltic river system) was developed which serves as a structural framework. The studied interval is time equivalent to the Utsira formation which is used offshore Norway for sequestration of CO2. These different possibilities of using or exploiting

  20. Reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling during the Cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J. J.; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Sluijs, Appy; Abels, Hemmo A.; Bijl, Peter K.

    2016-08-01

    Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain

  1. Petrogenesis of Late Cenozoic basaltic rocks from southern Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, A.-Rim; Choi, Sung Hi; Yu, Yongjae; Lee, Der-Chuen

    2017-02-01

    Major and trace element concentrations, and Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotopic compositions of Late Cenozoic (4.1 to 13.8 Ma) basaltic rocks from southern Vietnam have been determined to understand the nature of their mantle source. The volcanic rocks are composed of tholeiite basalt, alkaline basanite, trachybasalt, basaltic trachyandesite, and trachyandesite. The alkaline rocks show light rare earth element (LREE) enrichment, with (La/Yb)N = 10.3-29.8. The tholeiite basalts are distinguished by much lower values (8.8-9.5) of (La/Yb)N. On a primitive mantle-normalized trace element distribution diagram, they show oceanic island basalt (OIB)-like large-ion lithophile element enrichment without high field strength element depletion. However, some samples exhibit positive anomalies in K and Pb and negative anomalies in Sm, suggesting K-rich residual amphibole in the source. The samples contain Sr (87Sr/86Sr = 0.703794-0.704672), Nd (ɛNd = + 1.7-5.7), Hf (ɛHf = + 4.0-10.9), and Pb (206Pb/204Pb = 18.23-18.75; 207Pb/204Pb = 15.53-15.59; 208Pb/204Pb = 38.32-38.88) isotopes, plotting among OIBs, with depleted mid-ocean ridge basalt mantle-enriched mantle type 2 (DMM-EM2) characteristics. There are no discernible isotopic differences between tholeiite and the alkaline series, reflecting the same source. The Nd and Hf isotopic compositions are coupled, and plot along the mantle-crust array, ruling out the possibility of lithospheric mantle in the source. Plots of NiO against the Fo numbers of olivines from the basaltic rocks are within the range of Hainan and Hawaiian basalt olivines, implying that hybrid pyroxenite is present in the source. Also note that the estimated primary melt compositions fall within the experimental field defined by partial melting of silica-poor eclogite and peridotite. The effective melting pressure (Pf) and melting temperature (T) of the primary melts are Pf = 29.6-32.8 kbar and T = 1470-1480 °C. We suggest that Vietnamese basaltic rocks may be produced by

  2. Lagerstroemia L. from the middle Miocene Siwalik deposits, northern India: Implication for Cenozoic range shifts of the genus and the family Lythraceae

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Gaurav Srivastava; Rajan Gaur; R C Mehrotra

    2015-02-01

    Fossil leaves of Lagerstroemia (Lythraceae) are described from the Siwalik deposits (middle Miocene) of Kathgodam, Uttarakhand, India. The fossil records of the Lythraceae indicate its worldwide distribution in the Cenozoic. The family had its widest distribution during the Miocene but became less widespread during the Pliocene, followed by range expansion during the Quaternary. The present leaf fossil, along with the previous fossil records of Lagerstroemia, indicates that the genus followed the same pattern of expansion and retraction as the entire family Lythraceae suggesting that both the genus and the family adapted in similar ways. The fossil plant assemblage from the Lower Siwalik deposits indicates warm and humid climate with plenty of rainfall in the region during the depositional period.

  3. North Atlantic Ocean deep-water processes and depositional environments: A study of the Cenozoic Norway Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oline Hjelstuen, Berit; Andreassen, Elin V.

    2015-04-01

    Despite the enormous areas deep-water basins occupy in modern oceans, our knowledge about them remains poor. At depths of greater than 2000 m, the Cenozoic Norway Basin in the northernmost part of the Atlantic Ocean, is one such basin. Interpretation of 2D multichannel seismic data suggests a three-stage evolution for the Norway Basin. (1) Eocene-Pliocene. This time period is characterised by deposition of ooze-rich sediments in a widening and deepening basin. (2) Early-Middle Pleistocene. A significant shift in sedimentary processes and depositional environments took place in the Early Pleistocene. Mass failures initiated on the Norwegian continental slope, and three Early and Middle Pleistocene slide debrites, with maximum thicknesses of 600 m and sediment volumes of up to 25000 km3, were deposited. With ages estimated at c. 2.7-1.7 Ma, 1.7-1.1 Ma and 0.5 Ma, these slide deposits are among the largest identified worldwide, and among the oldest mapped along the entire NE Atlantic continental margin. (3) Late Pleistocene-Present. Since c. 0.5 Ma the Norway Basin has been effected by glacigenic debris flows, the Storegga Slide and hemipelagic-glacimarine sedimentation. These sedimentary processes were active during a time of repeated shelf-edge ice advances along the NE Atlantic continental margin. This study shows that deep-water basins represent dynamic depositional environments reflecting regional tectonic and climatic changes trough time.

  4. Patterns of maximum body size evolution in Cenozoic land mammals: eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarinen, Juha J.; Boyer, Alison G.; Brown, James H.; Costa, Daniel P.; Ernest, S. K. Morgan; Evans, Alistair R.; Fortelius, Mikael; Gittleman, John L.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; Harding, Larisa E.; Lintulaakso, Kari; Lyons, S. Kathleen; Okie, Jordan G.; Sibly, Richard M.; Stephens, Patrick R.; Theodor, Jessica; Uhen, Mark D.; Smith, Felisa A.

    2014-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing. PMID:24741007

  5. Patterns of maximum body size evolution in Cenozoic land mammals: eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarinen, Juha J; Boyer, Alison G; Brown, James H; Costa, Daniel P; Ernest, S K Morgan; Evans, Alistair R; Fortelius, Mikael; Gittleman, John L; Hamilton, Marcus J; Harding, Larisa E; Lintulaakso, Kari; Lyons, S Kathleen; Okie, Jordan G; Sibly, Richard M; Stephens, Patrick R; Theodor, Jessica; Uhen, Mark D; Smith, Felisa A

    2014-06-07

    There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

  6. Progress in faunal correlation of Late Cenozoic fluvial sequences 2000 4: the report of the IGCP 449 biostratigraphy subgroup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreve, D. C.; Keen, D. H.; Limondin-Lozouet, N.; Auguste, P.; Santisteban, Juan I.; Ubilla, M.; Matoshko, A.; Bridgland, D. R.; Westaway, R.

    2007-11-01

    Vertebrate and invertebrate faunal biostratigraphy is a well-tested method for establishing relative chronologies for fluviatile sequences that has proved useful in many parts of the world. The robust bones and teeth of large mammals are commonly found in fluviatile deposits, whereas small vertebrates can be readily recovered through systematic sieving of calcareous sediments, as can molluscs, the other major faunal group that has been used for biostratigraphical analysis of fluvial sequences. Because of their rapid and quantifiable rates of evolution, extinction, body mass change and dispersal during the Late Cenozoic, mammals are especially useful for ordering the fragmentary terrestrial sequence of interglacials and glacials, and proposing correlation with the global marine climatostratigraphic record. Other groups (e.g. reptiles and amphibians, ostracods) are as yet only in the initial stages of development as a dating tool, whereas some (e.g. fish, birds) still require substantial development in order to fully explore their utility. As part of IGCP 449, vertebrate and molluscan assemblages have made important contributions to datasets from a number of areas, notably northern France, central Germany, the Czech Republic and the Ukraine. Further south, mammalian assemblages have proved useful in separating discrete periods of climatic change in Iberia and Syria. At greater distances from the core area of fluvial biostratigraphical archives, significant contributions have come from South America (Uruguay River), South Africa (Vaal) and Australia (Riverine Plain and Lake Eyre drainage basin).

  7. Cenozoic Seawater Sr/Ca ratios: Implications for coral reef development through ocean de-acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosdian, S. M.; Grossman, E. L.; Lear, C. H.; Tao, K.; Rosenthal, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Records of seawater chemistry help constrain the temporal variation in geochemical processes that impact the global carbon cycle and global climate across Earth’s history. To date, various attempts to reconstruct Cenozoic seawater Sr/Ca ratios have produced markedly different results, with estimated Paleogene seawater Sr/Ca ranging from ~50% higher than today to 70% lower. We reconstruct seawater Sr/Ca using Eocene to Pliocene fossil mollusks collected from US Gulf Coast (Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida). We use Conus spp. and Turritella, taxa for which the Sr/Ca distribution coefficients have been determined as a function of temperature in modern specimens [1, 2]. Specimens were serially sampled perpendicular to growth to produce seasonal records of Sr/Ca. Fossil Conus shells show pronounced seasonal Sr/Ca cycles with a strong inverse correlation between Sr/Ca and δ18O, similar to those observed in modern specimens [1]. The fossil Turritella also show similar Sr/Ca cyclicity as modern specimens [2]. We calculate seawater Sr/Ca ratios using our Sr/Ca record, modern Sr/Ca-temperature calibrations for Conus and Turritella [1, 2], and a paleotemperature record based on oxygen isotopes from the same samples [3]. Seawater Sr/Ca increased from ~11.5 to 13.9 mmol/mol between the mid-Eocene (42 Ma) and early Oligocene (33 Ma) and decreased substantially from the mid-Miocene (11 mmol/mol) to the Pliocene (9 mmol/mol) and modern (8.5 mmol/mol). A mass balance model of variations in seawater Sr concentrations suggests a long-term decrease through the Neogene, which we attribute to a significant increase in the proportion of aragonite versus calcite deposition in shallow waters. The largest change is coincident with the proliferation of coral reefs, which occurred after the calcite-aragonite sea transition, and was likely ultimately driven by ocean de-acidification. [1] Sosdian et al. (2006) Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (G3) 7, Q11023, doi:10.1029/2005GC001233; [2

  8. Greater India Basin hypothesis and a two-stage Cenozoic collision between India and Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinsbergen, D.J.J. van; Lippert, P.C.; Dupont-Nivet, G.; McQuarrie, N.; Doubrovine, P.V.; Spakman, W.; Torsvik, T.H.

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic convergence between the Indian and Asian plates produced the archetypical continental collision zone comprising the Himalaya mountain belt and the Tibetan Plateau. How and where India–Asia convergence was accommodated after collision at or before 52 Ma remains a long-standing controversy. S

  9. Greater India Basin hypothesis and a two-stage Cenozoic collision between India and Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hinsbergen, D.J.J.; Lippert, P.; Dupont-Nivet, G.; McQuarrie, N.; Doubrovine, P.V.; Spakman, W.; Torsvik, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic convergence between the Indian and Asian plates produced the archetypical continental collision zone comprising the Himalaya mountain belt and the Tibetan Plateau. How and where India–Asia convergence was accommodated after collision at or before 52 Ma remains a long-standing controversy. S

  10. Mount Kenya volcanic activity and the Late Cenozoic landscape reorganisation in the upper Tana fluvial system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.; Wijbrans, J.R.; Claessens, L.F.G.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic–fluvial landscape interaction of the late Cenozoic Mt Kenya region in the upper Tana catchment has been reconstructed. The oldest newly dated phonolite flow is 5.78 Ma (40Ar/39Ar), placing the initiation of Mt Kenya volcanic activity within the Late Miocene, much earlier than reported befor

  11. Cretaceous and Cenozoic vegetation of Antarctica integrating the fossil wood record

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poole, I.J.; Cantrill, David J.

    2006-01-01

    A compilation of data for Cretaceous and Cenozoic Antarctic fossil wood floras, predominantly from the James Ross Island Basin, provides a different perspective on floristic and vegetation change when compared with previous studies that have focused on leaf macrofossils or palynology. The wood recor

  12. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  13. Effect of volatiles erupted from Mesozoic and Cenozoic volcanic activities on paleo-environmental changes in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Based on the determination of composition of volcanic volatiles and petrologic estimation of the total mass of volatiles erupted,we showed important advances in the study of the impact of Mesozoic and Cenozoic volcanic activities on paleo-environmental changes in China.The volcanic activities include western Liaoning and Zhangjiakou Mesozoic intermediate-acidic explosive eruptions,southern Tibet and Shanwang Cenozoic volcanism,and Mt.Changbai volcanic eruption around one thousand years ago.The paper predominantly discusses the earth's surface temperature changes,ozone depletion,acidic rain formation and mass mortalities of vertebrate induced by the Mesozoic and Cenozoic volcanism in China.

  14. Identifying tectonic and climatic drivers for deep-marine siliciclastic systems: Middle Eocene, Spanish Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickering, K. T.; Scotchman, J. I.; Robinson, S. A.

    2009-12-01

    middle Eocene climatic record is characterized by eccentricity-modulated precession cycles (Westerhold & Rohl 2009), The age model for the Ainsa basin yields an average sediment accumulation rate of ~40 cm kyr-1, that is consistent with that inferred from the spectral analysis on bioturbation intensity for fine-grained sedimentation (~30 cm kyr-1). References Scotchman, J.I., Pickering, K.T. & Robinson, S.A. 2009. Sub-Milankovitch millennial-scale climate variability in Middle Eocene deep-marine sediments. AGU Fall Meeting San Francisco 2009. Westerhold, T. & Rohl, U. 2009. High resolution cyclostratigraphy of the early Eocene - new insights into the origin of the Cenozoic cooling trend. Climate of the Past, 5, 309-327.

  15. Climate plan 2004; Plan climat 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The Climate Plan is an action plan drawn up by the French Government to respond to the climate change challenge, first by 2010 (complying with the Kyoto Protocol target), and, secondly, beyond this date. Projections for France show that national emissions could be 10% higher than the Kyoto target in 2010 if no measures are taken. This is particularly due to increasing emissions in the sectors affecting daily life (residential-tertiary sectors, transport, etc.). For this reason, the Climate Plan contains measures affecting all sectors of the economy and the daily life of all French citizens with a view to economizing the equivalent of 54 million tonnes of CO{sub 2} each year by the year 2010, which will help to reverse the trend significantly. Beyond 2010, the Climate Plan sets out a strategy for technological research which will enable France to meet a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions four or fivefold by 2050. (author)

  16. Meso-Cenozoic tectonics of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan (Central Asia), based on apatite fission track thermochronology.

    OpenAIRE

    Glorie, Stijn

    2008-01-01

    Apatite fission track thermochronology on the Kyrgyz Tien Shan basement revealed a polyphased thermal history of the study-area. We interpret the Mesozoic and Cenozoic cooling-events as periods of tectonic reactivation.

  17. Decoupled taxonomic radiation and ecological expansion of open-habitat grasses in the Cenozoic of North America

    OpenAIRE

    Caroline A. E. Strömberg

    2005-01-01

    Because of a dearth of Cenozoic grass fossils, the timing of the taxonomic diversification of modern subclades within the grass family (Poaceae) and the rise to ecological dominance of open-habitat grasses remain obscure. Here, I present data from 99 Eocene to Miocene phytolith assemblages from the North American continental interior (Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Montana/Idaho), constituting the only high-resolution mid-Cenozoic record of grasses. Analyses of these assemblages show that o...

  18. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  19. Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, C B

    2000-01-01

    The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

  20. Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox C Barry

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

  1. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  2. Late Cenozoic sedimentary process and its response to the slip history of the central Altyn Tagh fault, NW China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈正乐; 张岳桥; 陈宣华; 王小凤; A.S.Ramon; W.B.Zack

    2001-01-01

    The ENE-striking Altyn Tagh fault (ATF), extending along the northern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is one of the major important strike-slip faults, and has been known as one of the key areas to debate the eastward extrusion and crustral shortening models of the Tibetan Plateau during and after India-Asia collision. This paper mainly presents new evidence of Late Cenozoic sedimentary process to reconstruct the slip history of the ATF during the Late Cenozoic. Field measurements and laboratory analyses of the sedimentary characteristics in the Late Cenozoic basins in the central Altyn Tagh fault suggest that Late Cenozoic sedimentary sequence should be divided into three units according to facies changes. The paleo-topography reconstruction shows that the sedimentation in these basins was tightly related with the fault, indicating that the ATF has experienced at least three stages of strike slipping in the Late Cenozoic. New geological data from the Late Cenozoic sedimentary basins and the formation of th

  3. Characteristics and geological significance of olivine xenocrysts in Cenozoic volcanic rocks from western Qinling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Benxun; ZHANG Hongfu; XIAO Yan; ZHAO Xinmiao

    2006-01-01

    Cenozoic volcanic rocks from the Haoti, Dangchang County of the western Qinling Mountains, contain a few clearlyzoned olivines. These olivines are relatively big in grain sizes and usually have cracks or broken features. Their cores have similar compositions (Mg# = 90.4- 91.0) to those for the peridotitic xenoliths entrained in host volcanic rocks and their rims are close to the compositions of olivine phenocrysts (Mg# = 85.5 81.9). The CaO contents in these zoned olivines are lower than 0.1%. These features demonstrate that the clearly zoned olivines are xenocrysts and disaggregated from mantle peridotites. The zoned texture was the result of the interaction between the olivine and host magma. Available data show that the volcanic rocks would have been derived from the mantle source metasomatized by subducted hydrathermally-altered oceanic crust. The formation of these Cenozoic volcanic rocks was perhaps related to the rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.

  4. Cenozoic Volcanism and Intraplate Subduction at the Northern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓万明

    1991-01-01

    Developed in the Mt.Kunlun orogenic belt at the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is an active Cenozoic volcanic zone which is more than 1000km in length and some ten to hundred kilometers in width.It extends east-westwards and is roughly parallet to the strike of Mt.Kunlun.The Cenozoic volcanic rocks are divided into the northern(N-)and southern(S-)subzones.Eruptions of volcanic lavas in the S-subzone are related to an initial rift zone within the north Qiangtang terrane,but the volcanic rocks in the N-subzone are relatively close to the contact zone between the Mt.Kunlun and the Tarim terrane.The space-time distribution,petrological and geochemical features can be explained by a model of southward intraplate subduction of the Tarim terrane.

  5. Pattern and timing of late Cenozoic rapid exhumation and uplift of the Helan Mountain,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The Helan Mountain, an intraplate deformation belt in the North China Craton, is located in the northern portion of the China North-South seismic belt, and at the northwestern margin of the Ordos Block. The Cenozoic deformation history of the Helan Mountain is characterized by extension along the eastern Helan Mountain fault (EHSF), resulting in the exhumation and uplift of the Helan Mountain, relative to the rifting of the adjacent Yinchuan Basin. Here we present new apatite fission track (AFT) data from several transects adjacent to the EHSF in the central and northern Helan Mountain. AFT ages from the northern Helan Mountain (Dawukou and Zhengyiguan transects) range from 10 Ma to 89 Ma, whereas AFT ages from the southern Helan Mountain (Suyukou transect) are greater than 71 Ma. The AFT data analysis reveals initiation of rapid uplift and exhumation of the Helan Mountain at 10–12 Ma. Additionally, a plot of the AFT ages versus their mean track length shows a distinctive "boomerang" pattern indicating that the Helan Mountain experienced a discrete phase of accelerated exhumation beginning at 10-12 Ma. Spatially, AFT samples systematically increase in age away from the EHSF and are consistent with late Cenozoic exhumation that was slow in the southwestern Helan Mountain and rapid in the northeastern Helan Mountain, as well more rapid adjacent to the EHSF and slower away from the EHSF. Obviously, the spatial distribution of late Cenozoic exhumation indicates that normal faulting of the EHSF is related to southwestward tilting and rapid exhumation of the Helan Mountain beginning at 10–12 Ma. The uplift and exhumation of the Helan Mountain was a response to the intensive extension of the northwestern margin of the Ordos Block in the late Cenozoic; this occurred under a regional extensional stress field oriented NW-SE along the Yinchuan-Jilantai-Hetao and the Weihe-Shanxi graben systems adjacent to the Ordos Block.

  6. Regional stratigraphy and subsurface geology of Cenozoic deposits, Gulf Coastal Plain, south-central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosman, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer-System Analysis includes all major aquifer systems in Cenozoic deposits in the Gulf Coastal Plain in the States of Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and small areas in Alabama and Florida (western panhandle area), an area of about 290,000 square miles. The Gulf Coast geosyncline and the Mississippi embayment were the major depocenters for the Tertiary and Quaternary deposits that form the framework for the aquifer systems.

  7. The relationship between the growth process of the ferromanganese crusts in the Pacific seamount and Cenozoic ocean evolvement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Xuan; GAO LianFeng; FANG NianQiao; QU Wendun; LIU Jian; LI JiangShan

    2009-01-01

    Base on the Os Isotope stratigraphy together with the empirical growth rate models using Co concentrations, the growth ages of the ferromanganese crusts MHD79 and MP3D10 distributed in the seamount of Pacific are confirmed. Through the contrast and research on the previous achievements including ODP Leg 144 and the crusts CD29-2, N5E-06 and N1-15 of the seamount of the Central Pacific,the uniform five growth and growth hiatus periods of them are found, and closely related to the Cenozoic ocean evolvement process. In the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum (PClM), the rise of the global ocean productivity promoted the growth of the seamount crust; the first growth hiatus (Ⅰ) of the ferromanganese crust finished. In the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), though the vertical exchange of seawater was weakened, the strong terrestrial chemical weathering led to the input of a great amount of the terrigenous nutrients, which made the bioproductivity rise, so there were no crust hiatuses. During 52-50 Me, the Early Eocene Optimum Climate (EECO), the two poles were warm, the latitudinal temperature gradient was small, the wind-driven sea circulation and upwelling activity were weak, the terrestrial weathering was also weakened, the open ocean bioproductivity decreased, and the ferromanganese crust had growth hiatus again (Ⅱ). From early Middle Eocene-Late Eocene, Oligocene,it was a long-term gradually cooling process, the strengthening of the sea circulation and upweUing led to a rise of bioproductivity, and increase of the content of the hydrogenous element Fe, Mn and Co and the biogenous element Cu, Zn, so that was the most favorable stage for the growth of ferromanganese crust (growth periods Ⅲ and IV) in the studied area. The hiatus Ⅲ corresponded with the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, is inferred to relate with the global climate transformation, celestial body impact event in the Eocene-Oligocene transition. From the early to the middle Miocene, a large

  8. The relationship between the growth process of the ferromanganese crusts in the Pacific seamount and Cenozoic ocean evolvement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Base on the Os isotope stratigraphy together with the empirical growth rate models using Co concentrations, the growth ages of the ferromanganese crusts MHD79 and MP3D10 distributed in the seamount of Pacific are confirmed. Through the contrast and research on the previous achievements including ODP Leg 144 and the crusts CD29-2, N5E-06 and N1-15 of the seamount of the Central Pacific, the uniform five growth and growth hiatus periods of them are found, and closely related to the Cenozoic ocean evolvement process. In the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum (PCIM), the rise of the global ocean productivity promoted the growth of the seamount crust; the first growth hiatus (I) of the ferromanganese crust finished. In the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), though the vertical exchange of seawater was weakened, the strong terrestrial chemical weathering led to the input of a great amount of the terrigenous nutrients, which made the bioproductivity rise, so there were no crust hiatuses. During 52-50 Ma, the Early Eocene Optimum Climate (EECO), the two poles were warm, the latitudinal temperature gradient was small, the wind-driven sea circulation and upwelling activity were weak, the terrestrial weathering was also weakened, the open ocean bioproductivity decreased, and the ferromanganese crust had growth hiatus again (II). From early Middle Eocene-Late Eocene, Oligocene, it was a long-term gradually cooling process, the strengthening of the sea circulation and upwelling led to a rise of bioproductivity, and increase of the content of the hydrogenous element Fe, Mn and Co and the biogenous element Cu, Zn, so that was the most favorable stage for the growth of ferromanganese crust (growth periods III and IV) in the studied area. The hiatus III corresponded with the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, is inferred to relate with the global climate transformation, celestial body impact event in the Eocene-Oligocene transition. From the early to the middle Miocene, a large

  9. Cenozoic Antarctic DiatomWare/BugCam: An aid for research and teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, S.W.; Olney, M.; Covington, J.M.; Egerton, V.M.; Jiang, S.; Ramdeen, D.K.; ,; Schrader, H.; Sims, P.A.; Wood, A.S.; Davis, A.; Davenport, D.R.; Doepler, N.; Falcon, W.; Lopez, C.; Pressley, T.; Swedberg, O.L.; Harwood, D.M.

    2007-01-01

    Cenozoic Antarctic DiatomWare/BugCam© is an interactive, icon-driven digital-image database/software package that displays over 500 illustrated Cenozoic Antarctic diatom taxa along with original descriptions (including over 100 generic and 20 family-group descriptions). This digital catalog is designed primarily for use by micropaleontologists working in the field (at sea or on the Antarctic continent) where hard-copy literature resources are limited. This new package will also be useful for classroom/lab teaching as well as for any paleontologists making or refining taxonomic identifications at the microscope. The database (Cenozoic Antarctic DiatomWare) is displayed via a custom software program (BugCam) written in Visual Basic for use on PCs running Windows 95 or later operating systems. BugCam is a flexible image display program that utilizes an intuitive thumbnail “tree” structure for navigation through the database. The data are stored on Micrsosoft EXCEL spread sheets, hence no separate relational database program is necessary to run the package

  10. Cenozoic Mineralization in China, as a Key to Past Mineralization and a Clue to Future Prospecting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Many Cenozoic metal deposits have been found during the past decade. Among them, the Fuwan Ag deposit in Guangdong is the largest Ag deposit in China. Besides, the largest Cu deposit of China in Yulong, Tibet, the largest Pb-Zn deposit of China in Jinding, Yunnan, and the largest Au deposit of China in Jinguashi,Taiwan, were also formed in the Cenozoic. Why so many important "present" deposits formed during such a short period of geological history is the key problem. The major reason is that different tectonic settings control different kinds of magmatic activity and mineralization at the same time. In southwestern China, porphyry-type Cu deposits such as Yulong were formed during the early stage of the Himalayan orogeny, sediment-hosted Pb-Zn deposits such as Jinding were formed within intermontane basins related to deep faults, and carbonatite-related deposits such as the Maoniuping REE deposit and alkalic magmatic rock-related deposits such as the Beiya Au deposit originated from the mantle source. In southeastern China, the Fuwan Ag deposit was related to continental rifting which was triggered by the mantle plume. In Taiwan, the Jinguashi Au deposit was formed during the subduction process of an oceanic plate beneath a continental plate. Besides, the features such as the diversification, inheritance, large size, deep source of metals and fluids of the Cenozoic (Present or Recent ) mineralization can be used as a key to the search for past deposits.

  11. Hydrocarbon Potential of Pre-cenozoic Strata in the North Yellow Sea Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Feng; DAI Chunshan; CHEN Jianwen; LI Gang; SUN Ping

    2005-01-01

    The North Yellow Sea Basin ( NYSB ), which was developed on the basement of North China (Huabei) continental block, is a typical continental Mesozoic-Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the sea area. Its Mesozoic basin is a residual basin,below which there is probably a larger Paleozoic sedimentary basin. The North Yellow Sea Basin comprises four sags and three uplifts. Of them, the eastern sag is a Mesozoic-Cenozoic sedimentary sag in NYSB and has the biggest sediment thickness; the current Korean drilling wells are concentrated in the eastern sag. This sag is comparatively rich in oil and gas resources and thus has a relatively good petroleum prospect in the sea.The central sag has also accommodated thick Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediments. The latest research results show that there are three series of hydrocarbon source rocks in the North Yellow Sea Basin, namely, black shales of the Paleogene, Jurassic and Cretaceous. The principal hydrocarbon source rocks in NYSB are the Mesozoic black shale. According to the drilling data of Korea, the black shales of the Paleogene,Jurassic and Cretaceous have all come up to the standards of good and mature source rocks. The NYSB owns an intact system of oil generation, reservoir and capping rocks that can help hydrocarbon to form in the basin and thus it has the great potential of oil and gas. The vertical distribution of the hydrocarbon resources is mainly considered to be in the Cretaceous and then in the Jurassic.

  12. Biogeographical consequences of Cenozoic tectonic events within East Asian margins: a case study of Hynobius biogeography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    Full Text Available Few studies have explored the role of Cenozoic tectonic evolution in shaping patterns and processes of extant animal distributions within East Asian margins. We select Hynobius salamanders (Amphibia: Hynobiidae as a model to examine biogeographical consequences of Cenozoic tectonic events within East Asian margins. First, we use GenBank molecular data to reconstruct phylogenetic interrelationships of Hynobius by bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Second, we estimate the divergence time using the bayesian relaxed clock approach and infer dispersal/vicariance histories under the 'dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis' model. Finally, we test whether evolutionary history and biogeographical processes of Hynobius should coincide with the predictions of two major hypotheses (the 'vicariance'/'out of southwestern Japan' hypothesis. The resulting phylogeny confirmed Hynobius as a monophyletic group, which could be divided into nine major clades associated with six geographical areas. Our results show that: (1 the most recent common ancestor of Hynobius was distributed in southwestern Japan and Hokkaido Island, (2 a sister taxon relationship between Hynobius retardatus and all remaining species was the results of a vicariance event between Hokkaido Island and southwestern Japan in the Middle Eocene, (3 ancestral Hynobius in southwestern Japan dispersed into the Taiwan Island, central China, 'Korean Peninsula and northeastern China' as well as northeastern Honshu during the Late Eocene-Late Miocene. Our findings suggest that Cenozoic tectonic evolution plays an important role in shaping disjunctive distributions of extant Hynobius within East Asian margins.

  13. Petrogenesis of the Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks from the Northern Par of Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    Based on electron probe analyses of the minerals and bulk composition of the Cenozoic volcanic rocks from Yumen and Hoh Xil lithodistricts,Qinghai-Xizang plateau,the forming conditions including the temperature and pressure of those rocks are studied in this paperAccording to the thermodynamic calculation results of mineral-melt equilibrium,the depth of the asthenosphere superface(about 75-130km)for the northern part of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau during the Cenozoic is suggested.Finally,this paper indicates that the Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the northern part of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau mainly consist of shoshonite series.Their forming temperature is 630-1039℃ and forming pressure is between 2.3-4.0GPa .The rocks were formed in the intracontinental orogenic belt,of which the primary magma was originated from a particular enrichment upper mantle and accreted crust-mantle belt of directly from asthenospheric superface as a result of partial of pyrolite.

  14. Cenozoic cooling, Antarctic nutrient pump, and the evolution of whales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, W. H.

    2007-10-01

    The evolution of large marine mammals and their invasion of the pelagic realm is tied to the availability of sufficient food, which in turn is linked to upwelling areas and other highly productive regions in the ocean, as has been recognized for some time. Here I propose that silicate-supported upwelling (which provides the shorter food chain and hence the higher yield for apex consumers) and deep mixing within the Southern Ocean are the crucial ingredients of the system providing the stage for the evolution of whales. The Circumpolar Current receives silicate from various sources but especially from the North Atlantic Deep Water introduced in the Atlantic sector. The silicate is largely trapped in the Ring, some in the water, and some in the sediment, and is made available to shallower waters by unusually deep mixing. From these shallower depths silica-rich waters can enter the thermocline all through the southern hemisphere, stimulating diatom growth in upwelling systems to the equator and beyond. From the link diatoms-krill-whales and diatoms-krill-small fishes, it is readily apparent that the link between the climate narrative and the narrative of whale evolution (both for mysticetes and odontocetes) is the silica cycle. Studying it will generate hypotheses about whale evolution that can be tested using fossils.

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...... due to anthropogenic climate change, analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change, and implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. A summary is provided in this paper....

  16. Variations in Cenozoic seawater uranium reconstructed from well preserved aragonitic fossil corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothmann, A. O.; Higgins, J. A.; Bender, M. L.; Stolarski, J.; Adkins, J. F.; McKeon, R. E.; Farley, K. A.; Wang, X.; Planavsky, N.

    2015-12-01

    U/Ca ratios were measured in a subset (n ≈ 30) of well preserved scleractinian fossil corals previously described by Gothmann et al. (2015) in order to investigate Cenozoic changes in seawater [U]. He/U dating studies and measurements of 234U/238U and δ238/235U provide constraints on fossil coral U preservation. He/U ages also demonstrate the ability of well preserved coral aragonite to retain most of its radiogenic He over million year timescales. We find that fossil coral U/Ca has increased by a factor of ~4 between the Early Cenozoic and today. This number is calculated from the change in seawater [Ca2+] implied by brine inclusions and other proxies, and the assumption that the U/Ca in shallow water corals equals the seawater ratio. The change cannot be attributed to a dependence of coral U uptake on seawater pH or [CO32-] (e.g., Inoue et al., 2011), which would lead to a decrease in U/Ca going forward in time. Instead, we suggest that seawater [U] has increased since the Early Cenozoic. Possible explanations for the inferred change include: (1) a small decrease in uranium uptake in suboxic and anoxic sediments over the Cenozoic, (2) a decrease in the rate of low-temperature hydrothermal alteration, and associated U uptake, over the Cenozoic, and (3) a decrease in U removal from seawater resulting from an increase in UO2-CO3 complexation, as originally suggested by Broecker (1971). References: Broecker, W. S. (1971) A Kinetic Model for the Chemical Composition of Sea Water. Quaternary Research, 1, 188-207. Gothmann, A.M., Stolarski, J., Adkins, J.F., Dennis, K.J., Schrag, D.P., Schoene, B., Bender, M.L. (2015) Fossil corals as an archive of secular variations in seawater chemistry. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 160, 188-208. Inoue, M., Suwa, R., Suzuki, A., Sakai, K., and Kawahata, H., (2011) Effects of seawater pH on growth and skeletal U/Ca ratios of Acropora digitifera coral polyps. Geophysical Research Letters 38, 12801-12804.

  17. Constraining the vertical surface motions of the Hampshire Basin, south England During the Cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Philip; England, Richard; Zalasiewicz, Jan

    2016-04-01

    The potential effect of rising sea level on the UK has received considerable attention in recent years. However, the ongoing long-term changes in surface topography of the UK driven by regional tectonics and