WorldWideScience

Sample records for causal model approach

  1. A developmental approach to learning causal models for cyber security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugan, Jonathan

    2013-05-01

    To keep pace with our adversaries, we must expand the scope of machine learning and reasoning to address the breadth of possible attacks. One approach is to employ an algorithm to learn a set of causal models that describes the entire cyber network and each host end node. Such a learning algorithm would run continuously on the system and monitor activity in real time. With a set of causal models, the algorithm could anticipate novel attacks, take actions to thwart them, and predict the second-order effects flood of information, and the algorithm would have to determine which streams of that flood were relevant in which situations. This paper will present the results of efforts toward the application of a developmental learning algorithm to the problem of cyber security. The algorithm is modeled on the principles of human developmental learning and is designed to allow an agent to learn about the computer system in which it resides through active exploration. Children are flexible learners who acquire knowledge by actively exploring their environment and making predictions about what they will find,1, 2 and our algorithm is inspired by the work of the developmental psychologist Jean Piaget.3 Piaget described how children construct knowledge in stages and learn new concepts on top of those they already know. Developmental learning allows our algorithm to focus on subsets of the environment that are most helpful for learning given its current knowledge. In experiments, the algorithm was able to learn the conditions for file exfiltration and use that knowledge to protect sensitive files.

  2. Renormalization group approach to causal bulk viscous cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The renormalization group method is applied to the study of homogeneous and flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker type universes, filled with a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid. The starting point of the study is the consideration of the scaling properties of the gravitational field equations, the causal evolution equation of the bulk viscous pressure and the equations of state. The requirement of scale invariance imposes strong constraints on the temporal evolution of the bulk viscosity coefficient, temperature and relaxation time, thus leading to the possibility of obtaining the bulk viscosity coefficient-energy density dependence. For a cosmological model with bulk viscosity coefficient proportional to the Hubble parameter, we perform the analysis of the renormalization group flow around the scale-invariant fixed point, thereby obtaining the long-time behaviour of the scale factor

  3. A Novel Extended Granger Causal Model Approach Demonstrates Brain Hemispheric Differences during Face Recognition Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Kendrick, Keith M.; Feng, Jianfeng

    2009-01-01

    Two main approaches in exploring causal relationships in biological systems using time-series data are the application of Dynamic Causal model (DCM) and Granger Causal model (GCM). These have been extensively applied to brain imaging data and are also readily applicable to a wide range of temporal changes involving genes, proteins or metabolic pathways. However, these two approaches have always been considered to be radically different from each other and therefore used independently. Here we present a novel approach which is an extension of Granger Causal model and also shares the features of the bilinear approximation of Dynamic Causal model. We have first tested the efficacy of the extended GCM by applying it extensively in toy models in both time and frequency domains and then applied it to local field potential recording data collected from in vivo multi-electrode array experiments. We demonstrate face discrimination learning-induced changes in inter- and intra-hemispheric connectivity and in the hemispheric predominance of theta and gamma frequency oscillations in sheep inferotemporal cortex. The results provide the first evidence for connectivity changes between and within left and right inferotemporal cortexes as a result of face recognition learning. PMID:19936225

  4. A novel extended Granger Causal Model approach demonstrates brain hemispheric differences during face recognition learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Kendrick, Keith M; Feng, Jianfeng

    2009-11-01

    Two main approaches in exploring causal relationships in biological systems using time-series data are the application of Dynamic Causal model (DCM) and Granger Causal model (GCM). These have been extensively applied to brain imaging data and are also readily applicable to a wide range of temporal changes involving genes, proteins or metabolic pathways. However, these two approaches have always been considered to be radically different from each other and therefore used independently. Here we present a novel approach which is an extension of Granger Causal model and also shares the features of the bilinear approximation of Dynamic Causal model. We have first tested the efficacy of the extended GCM by applying it extensively in toy models in both time and frequency domains and then applied it to local field potential recording data collected from in vivo multi-electrode array experiments. We demonstrate face discrimination learning-induced changes in inter- and intra-hemispheric connectivity and in the hemispheric predominance of theta and gamma frequency oscillations in sheep inferotemporal cortex. The results provide the first evidence for connectivity changes between and within left and right inferotemporal cortexes as a result of face recognition learning. PMID:19936225

  5. A novel extended Granger Causal Model approach demonstrates brain hemispheric differences during face recognition learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Ge

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Two main approaches in exploring causal relationships in biological systems using time-series data are the application of Dynamic Causal model (DCM and Granger Causal model (GCM. These have been extensively applied to brain imaging data and are also readily applicable to a wide range of temporal changes involving genes, proteins or metabolic pathways. However, these two approaches have always been considered to be radically different from each other and therefore used independently. Here we present a novel approach which is an extension of Granger Causal model and also shares the features of the bilinear approximation of Dynamic Causal model. We have first tested the efficacy of the extended GCM by applying it extensively in toy models in both time and frequency domains and then applied it to local field potential recording data collected from in vivo multi-electrode array experiments. We demonstrate face discrimination learning-induced changes in inter- and intra-hemispheric connectivity and in the hemispheric predominance of theta and gamma frequency oscillations in sheep inferotemporal cortex. The results provide the first evidence for connectivity changes between and within left and right inferotemporal cortexes as a result of face recognition learning.

  6. Spatial-temporal causal modeling: a data centric approach to climate change attribution (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, A. C.

    2010-12-01

    Attribution of climate change has been predominantly based on simulations using physical climate models. These approaches rely heavily on the employed models and are thus subject to their shortcomings. Given the physical models’ limitations in describing the complex system of climate, we propose an alternative approach to climate change attribution that is data centric in the sense that it relies on actual measurements of climate variables and human and natural forcing factors. We present a novel class of methods to infer causality from spatial-temporal data, as well as a procedure to incorporate extreme value modeling into our methodology in order to address the attribution of extreme climate events. We develop a collection of causal modeling methods using spatio-temporal data that combine graphical modeling techniques with the notion of Granger causality. “Granger causality” is an operational definition of causality from econometrics, which is based on the premise that if a variable causally affects another, then the past values of the former should be helpful in predicting the future values of the latter. In its basic version, our methodology makes use of the spatial relationship between the various data points, but treats each location as being identically distributed and builds a unique causal graph that is common to all locations. A more flexible framework is then proposed that is less restrictive than having a single causal graph common to all locations, while avoiding the brittleness due to data scarcity that might arise if one were to independently learn a different graph for each location. The solution we propose can be viewed as finding a middle ground by partitioning the locations into subsets that share the same causal structures and pooling the observations from all the time series belonging to the same subset in order to learn more robust causal graphs. More precisely, we make use of relationships between locations (e.g. neighboring

  7. Combining FDI and AI approaches within causal-model-based diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentil, Sylviane; Montmain, Jacky; Combastel, Christophe

    2004-10-01

    This paper presents a model-based diagnostic method designed in the context of process supervision. It has been inspired by both artificial intelligence and control theory. AI contributes tools for qualitative modeling, including causal modeling, whose aim is to split a complex process into elementary submodels. Control theory, within the framework of fault detection and isolation (FDI), provides numerical models for generating and testing residuals, and for taking into account inaccuracies in the model, unknown disturbances and noise. Consistency-based reasoning provides a logical foundation for diagnostic reasoning and clarifies fundamental assumptions, such as single fault and exoneration. The diagnostic method presented in the paper benefits from the advantages of all these approaches. Causal modeling enables the method to focus on sufficient relations for fault isolation, which avoids combinatorial explosion. Moreover, it allows the model to be modified easily without changing any aspect of the diagnostic algorithm. The numerical submodels that are used to detect inconsistency benefit from the precise quantitative analysis of the FDI approach. The FDI models are studied in order to link this method with DX component-oriented reasoning. The recursive on-line use of this algorithm is explained and the concept of local exoneration is introduced.

  8. A Causal Modelling Approach to the Development of Theory-Based Behaviour Change Programmes for Trial Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardeman, Wendy; Sutton, Stephen; Griffin, Simon; Johnston, Marie; White, Anthony; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Kinmonth, Ann Louise

    2005-01-01

    Theory-based intervention programmes to support health-related behaviour change aim to increase health impact and improve understanding of mechanisms of behaviour change. However, the science of intervention development remains at an early stage. We present a causal modelling approach to developing complex interventions for evaluation in…

  9. A Causal, Data-driven Approach to Modeling the Kepler Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dun; Hogg, David W.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    2016-09-01

    Astronomical observations are affected by several kinds of noise, each with its own causal source; there is photon noise, stochastic source variability, and residuals coming from imperfect calibration of the detector or telescope. The precision of NASA Kepler photometry for exoplanet science—the most precise photometric measurements of stars ever made—appears to be limited by unknown or untracked variations in spacecraft pointing and temperature, and unmodeled stellar variability. Here, we present the causal pixel model (CPM) for Kepler data, a data-driven model intended to capture variability but preserve transit signals. The CPM works at the pixel level so that it can capture very fine-grained information about the variation of the spacecraft. The CPM models the systematic effects in the time series of a pixel using the pixels of many other stars and the assumption that any shared signal in these causally disconnected light curves is caused by instrumental effects. In addition, we use the target star’s future and past (autoregression). By appropriately separating, for each data point, the data into training and test sets, we ensure that information about any transit will be perfectly isolated from the model. The method has four tuning parameters—the number of predictor stars or pixels, the autoregressive window size, and two L2-regularization amplitudes for model components, which we set by cross-validation. We determine values for tuning parameters that works well for most of the stars and apply the method to a corresponding set of target stars. We find that CPM can consistently produce low-noise light curves. In this paper, we demonstrate that pixel-level de-trending is possible while retaining transit signals, and we think that methods like CPM are generally applicable and might be useful for K2, TESS, etc., where the data are not clean postage stamps like Kepler.

  10. Causal reasoning with mental models

    OpenAIRE

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews e...

  11. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  12. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  13. Causal Models for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neysis Hernández Díaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work a study about the process of risk management in major schools in the world. The project management tools worldwide highlights the need to redefine risk management processes. From the information obtained it is proposed the use of causal models for risk analysis based on information from the project or company, say risks and the influence thereof on the costs, human capital and project requirements and detect the damages of a number of tasks without tribute to the development of the project. A study on the use of causal models as knowledge representation techniques causal, among which are the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (DCM and Bayesian networks, with the most favorable MCD technique to use because it allows modeling the risk information witho ut having a knowledge base either itemize.

  14. Identifiability of causal effect for a simple causal model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑忠国; 张艳艳; 童行伟

    2002-01-01

    Counterfactual model is put forward to discuss the causal inference in the directed acyclic graph and its corresponding identifiability is thus studied with the ancillary information based on conditional independence. It is shown that the assumption of ignorability can be expanded to the assumption of replaceability,under which the causal efiects are identifiable.

  15. A causal net approach to relativistic quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateson, R. D.

    2012-05-01

    In this paper we discuss a causal network approach to describing relativistic quantum mechanics. Each vertex on the causal net represents a possible point event or particle observation. By constructing the simplest causal net based on Reichenbach-like conjunctive forks in proper time we can exactly derive the 1+1 dimension Dirac equation for a relativistic fermion and correctly model quantum mechanical statistics. Symmetries of the net provide various quantum mechanical effects such as quantum uncertainty and wavefunction, phase, spin, negative energy states and the effect of a potential. The causal net can be embedded in 3+1 dimensions and is consistent with the conventional Dirac equation. In the low velocity limit the causal net approximates to the Schrodinger equation and Pauli equation for an electromagnetic field. Extending to different momentum states the net is compatible with the Feynman path integral approach to quantum mechanics that allows calculation of well known quantum phenomena such as diffraction.

  16. A causal net approach to relativistic quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we discuss a causal network approach to describing relativistic quantum mechanics. Each vertex on the causal net represents a possible point event or particle observation. By constructing the simplest causal net based on Reichenbach-like conjunctive forks in proper time we can exactly derive the 1+1 dimension Dirac equation for a relativistic fermion and correctly model quantum mechanical statistics. Symmetries of the net provide various quantum mechanical effects such as quantum uncertainty and wavefunction, phase, spin, negative energy states and the effect of a potential. The causal net can be embedded in 3+1 dimensions and is consistent with the conventional Dirac equation. In the low velocity limit the causal net approximates to the Schrodinger equation and Pauli equation for an electromagnetic field. Extending to different momentum states the net is compatible with the Feynman path integral approach to quantum mechanics that allows calculation of well known quantum phenomena such as diffraction.

  17. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn N Saxe

    Full Text Available Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study. Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study. Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment. The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro and high-level (macro insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

  18. Estimating causal structure using conditional DAG models

    OpenAIRE

    Oates, Chris J.; Smith, Jim Q.; Mukherjee, Sach

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers inference of causal structure in a class of graphical models called "conditional DAGs". These are directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with two kinds of variables, primary and secondary. The secondary variables are used to aid in estimation of causal relationships between the primary variables. We give causal semantics for this model class and prove that, under certain assumptions, the direction of causal influence is identifiable from the joint observational distribution ...

  19. The metagenomic approach and causality in virology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana Beres Castrignano

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the metagenomic approach has been a very important tool in the discovery of new viruses in environmental and biological samples. Here we discuss how these discoveries may help to elucidate the etiology of diseases and the criteria necessary to establish a causal association between a virus and a disease.

  20. Bayesian Discovery of Linear Acyclic Causal Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hoyer, Patrik O

    2012-01-01

    Methods for automated discovery of causal relationships from non-interventional data have received much attention recently. A widely used and well understood model family is given by linear acyclic causal models (recursive structural equation models). For Gaussian data both constraint-based methods (Spirtes et al., 1993; Pearl, 2000) (which output a single equivalence class) and Bayesian score-based methods (Geiger and Heckerman, 1994) (which assign relative scores to the equivalence classes) are available. On the contrary, all current methods able to utilize non-Gaussianity in the data (Shimizu et al., 2006; Hoyer et al., 2008) always return only a single graph or a single equivalence class, and so are fundamentally unable to express the degree of certainty attached to that output. In this paper we develop a Bayesian score-based approach able to take advantage of non-Gaussianity when estimating linear acyclic causal models, and we empirically demonstrate that, at least on very modest size networks, its accur...

  1. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  2. Causal Indicator Models: Identification, Estimation, and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Davis, Walter R.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss the identification, estimation, and testing of structural equation models that have causal indicators. We first provide 2 rules of identification that are particularly helpful in models with causal indicators--the 2C emitted paths rule and the exogenous X rule. We demonstrate how these rules can help us distinguish identified from…

  3. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Information technology induced communications (ICTs have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management (CRM has emerged as an offshoot to technological breakthrough as it ensured service-encapsulation by integrating people, process and technology. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in a relatively novel business-philosophy – CRM. The study has been conducted on the largest public sector bank of India - State bank of India (SBI at Kolkata which has successfully completed its decade-long operational automation in the year 2008. The study used structural equation modeling (SEM to justify the proposed model construct and causal loop diagramming (CLD to depict the negative and positive linkages between the variables.

  4. Dental Caries Risk Studies Revisited: Causal Approaches Needed for Future Inquiries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorthe Holst

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of high-risk individuals and the multi-risk approach are common inquiries in caries risk epidemiology. These studies prepared the ground for future studies; specific hypotheses about causal patterns can now be formulated and tested applying advanced statistical methods designed for causal studies, such as structural equation modeling, path analysis and multilevel modeling. Causal studies should employ measurements, analyses and interpretation of findings, which are in accordance to causal aims. Examples of causal empirical studies from medical and oral research are presented.

  5. The role of causal links in performance measurement models

    OpenAIRE

    Kasperskaya, Yulia; Tayles, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Purpose: Several well-known managerial accounting performance measurement models rely on causal assumptions. Whilst users of the models express satisfaction and link them with improved organizational performance, academic research, of the realworld applications, shows few reliable statistical associations. This paper provides a discussion on the"problematic" of causality in a performance measurement setting. Design/methodology/approach: This is a conceptual study based on an analysis...

  6. Ten simple rules for dynamic causal modeling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stephan, K.E.; Penny, W.D.; Moran, R.J.; Ouden, H.E.M. den; Daunizeau, J.; Friston, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a generic Bayesian framework for inferring hidden neuronal states from measurements of brain activity. It provides posterior estimates of neurobiologically interpretable quantities such as the effective strength of synaptic connections among neuronal populations and

  7. A Causal Model for Diagnostic Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Guoqiang; CHENG Hu

    2000-01-01

    Up to now, there have been many methods for knowledge representation and reasoning in causal networks, but few of them include the research on the coactions of nodes. In practice, ignoring these coactions may influence the accuracy of reasoning and even give rise to incorrect reasoning. In this paper, based on multilayer causal networks, the definitions on coaction nodes are given to construct a new causal network called Coaction Causal Network, which serves to construct a model of neural network for diagnosis followed by fuzzy reasoning, and then the activation rules are given and neural computing methods are used to finish the diagnostic reasoning. These methods are proved in theory and a method of computing the number of solutions for the diagnostic reasoning is given. Finally, the experiments and the conclusions are presented.

  8. Dynamic causal models and autopoietic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models) for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated. PMID:18575681

  9. Imposing causality on a matrix model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce a new matrix model that describes Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in two dimensions. In order to do so, we introduce a new, simpler definition of 2D CDT and show it to be equivalent to the old one. The model makes use of ideas from dually weighted matrix models, combined with multi-matrix models, and can be studied by the method of character expansion.

  10. Applying Causal Discovery to the Output of Climate Models - What Can We Learn from the Causal Signatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert-Uphoff, I.; Hammerling, D.; Samarasinghe, S.; Baker, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    The framework of causal discovery provides algorithms that seek to identify potential cause-effect relationships from observational data. The output of such algorithms is a graph structure that indicates the potential causal connections between the observed variables. Originally developed for applications in the social sciences and economics, causal discovery has been used with great success in bioinformatics and, most recently, in climate science, primarily to identify interaction patterns between compound climate variables and to track pathways of interactions between different locations around the globe. Here we apply causal discovery to the output data of climate models to learn so-called causal signatures from the data that indicate interactions between the different atmospheric variables. These causal signatures can act like fingerprints for the underlying dynamics and thus serve a variety of diagnostic purposes. We study the use of the causal signatures for three applications: 1) For climate model software verification we suggest to use causal signatures as a means of detecting statistical differences between model runs, thus identifying potential errors and supplementing the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Testing (CESM-ECT) tool recently developed at NCAR for CESM verification. 2) In the context of data compression of model runs, we will test how much the causal signatures of the model outputs changes after different compression algorithms have been applied. This may result in additional means to determine which type and amount of compression is acceptable. 3) This is the first study applying causal discovery simultaneously to a large number of different atmospheric variables, and in the process of studying the resulting interaction patterns for the two aforementioned applications, we expect to gain some new insights into their relationships from this approach. We will present first results obtained for Applications 1 and 2 above.

  11. Ten simple rules for dynamic causal modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan, K E; Penny, W.D.; Moran, R. J.; den Ouden, H.E.M.; Daunizeau, J.; Friston, K J

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a generic Bayesian framework for inferring hidden neuronal states from measurements of brain activity. It provides posterior estimates of neurobiologically interpretable quantities such as the effective strength of synaptic connections among neuronal populations and their context-dependent modulation. DCM is increasingly used in the analysis of a wide range of neuroimaging and electrophysiological data. Given the relative complexity of DCM, compared to convent...

  12. Musical expectation modelling from audio : a causal mid-level approach to predictive representation and learning of spectro-temporal events

    OpenAIRE

    Hazan, Amaury

    2010-01-01

    We develop in this thesis a computational model of music expectation, which may be one of the most important aspects in music listening. Many phenomenons related to music listening such as preference, surprise or emo- tions are linked to the anticipatory behaviour of listeners. In this thesis, we concentrate on a statistical account to music expectation, by modelling the processes of learning and predicting spectro-temporal regularities in a causal fashion. The principle of statistical mo...

  13. Diagnostic reasoning using qualitative causal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of expert systems to reasoning problems involving real-time data from plant measurements has been a topic of much research, but few practical systems have been deployed. One obstacle to wider use of expert systems in applications involving real-time data is the lack of adequate knowledge representation methodologies for dynamic processes. Knowledge bases composed mainly of rules have disadvantages when applied to dynamic processes and real-time data. This paper describes a methodology for the development of qualitative causal models that can be used as knowledge bases for reasoning about process dynamic behavior. These models provide a systematic method for knowledge base construction, considerably reducing the engineering effort required. They also offer much better opportunities for verification and validation of the knowledge base, thus increasing the possibility of the application of expert systems to reasoning about mission critical systems. Starting with the Signed Directed Graph (SDG) method that has been successfully applied to describe the behavior of diverse dynamic processes, the paper shows how certain non-physical behaviors that result from abstraction may be eliminated by applying causal constraint to the models. The resulting Extended Signed Directed Graph (ESDG) may then be compiled to produce a model for use in process fault diagnosis. This model based reasoning methodology is used in the MOBIAS system being developed by Duke Power Company under EPRI sponsorship. 15 refs., 4 figs

  14. Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Nine OECD Countries: Bounds Test Approach and Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Hung-Pin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE consumption and economic growth (EG in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries—United States of America (USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK. The overall results indicate that (1 a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2 long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3 a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4 both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5 Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain.

  15. Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in nine OECD countries: bounds test approach and causality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung-Pin, Lin

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth (EG) in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries-United States of America (USA), Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK). The overall results indicate that (1) a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2) long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3) a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4) both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5) Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain.

  16. Causal structure and hierarchies of models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Kevin D

    2012-12-01

    Economics prefers complete explanations: general over partial equilibrium, microfoundational over aggregate. Similarly, probabilistic accounts of causation frequently prefer greater detail to less as in typical resolutions of Simpson's paradox. Strategies of causal refinement equally aim to distinguish direct from indirect causes. Yet, there are countervailing practices in economics. Representative-agent models aim to capture economic motivation but not to reduce the level of aggregation. Small structural vector-autoregression and dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium models are practically preferred to larger ones. The distinction between exogenous and endogenous variables suggests partitioning the world into distinct subsystems. The tension in these practices is addressed within a structural account of causation inspired by the work of Herbert Simon's, which defines cause with reference to complete systems adapted to deal with incomplete systems and piecemeal evidence. The focus is on understanding the constraints that a structural account of causation places on the freedom to model complex or lower-order systems as simpler or higher-order systems and on to what degree piecemeal evidence can be incorporated into a structural account.

  17. Manifest Variable Granger Causality Models for Developmental Research: A Taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Granger models are popular when it comes to testing hypotheses that relate series of measures causally to each other. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of Granger causality models. The taxonomy results from crossing the four variables Order of Lag, Type of (Contemporaneous) Effect, Direction of Effect, and Segment of Dependent Series…

  18. Causal transmission in reduced-form models

    OpenAIRE

    Vassili Bazinas; Bent Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method to explore the causal transmission of a catalyst variable through two endogenous variables of interest. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of the two endogenous variables given the catalyst. The method combines elements from instru- mental variable analysis and Cholesky decomposition of structural vector autoregressions. We give conditions for uniqueness of the causal transmission.

  19. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

  20. The stochastic system approach to causality with a view toward lifecourse epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Commenges, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call the stochastic system approach is particularly well fitted to study lifecourse epidemiology. A hierarchy of factors is described that could be modeled using a suitable multivariate stochastic process. To illustrate this approach, a conceptual model for coronary heart disease mixing continuous and discrete state-space processes is proposed.

  1. Causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission for Malaysia using maximum entropy bootstrap approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, Sehrish; Zou, Xiang; Hassan, Che Hashim; Azam, Muhammad; Zaman, Khalid

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in the causal framework, as the direction of causality remains has a significant policy implication for developed and developing countries. The study employed maximum entropy bootstrap (Meboot) approach to examine the causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission using bivariate as well as multivariate framework for Malaysia, over a period of 1975-2013. This is a unified approach without requiring the use of conventional techniques based on asymptotical theory such as testing for possible unit root and cointegration. In addition, it can be applied in the presence of non-stationary of any type including structural breaks without any type of data transformation to achieve stationary. Thus, it provides more reliable and robust inferences which are insensitive to time span as well as lag length used. The empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to carbon emission both in the bivariate model and multivariate framework, while controlling for broad money supply and population density. The results indicate that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country and hence energy is stimulus to carbon emissions.

  2. Causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission for Malaysia using maximum entropy bootstrap approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, Sehrish; Zou, Xiang; Hassan, Che Hashim; Azam, Muhammad; Zaman, Khalid

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in the causal framework, as the direction of causality remains has a significant policy implication for developed and developing countries. The study employed maximum entropy bootstrap (Meboot) approach to examine the causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission using bivariate as well as multivariate framework for Malaysia, over a period of 1975-2013. This is a unified approach without requiring the use of conventional techniques based on asymptotical theory such as testing for possible unit root and cointegration. In addition, it can be applied in the presence of non-stationary of any type including structural breaks without any type of data transformation to achieve stationary. Thus, it provides more reliable and robust inferences which are insensitive to time span as well as lag length used. The empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to carbon emission both in the bivariate model and multivariate framework, while controlling for broad money supply and population density. The results indicate that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country and hence energy is stimulus to carbon emissions. PMID:26282441

  3. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: a causal approach

    OpenAIRE

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; John, Anslyn; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-01-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large scale structures. We analyse the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the non-causal Eckart theory, we obtain a third order evo...

  4. Linkage intensity learning approach with genetic algorithm for causality diagram

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Cheng-liang; CHEN Juan-juan

    2007-01-01

    The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for discrete and continuous variable. But to give linkage intensity of causality diagram is difficult, particularly in many working conditions in which sampling data are limited or noisy. The classic learning algorithm is hard to be adopted. We used genetic algorithm to learn linkage intensity from limited data. The simulation results demonstrate that this algorithm is more suitable than the classic algorithm in the condition of sample shortage such as space shuttle's fault diagnoisis.

  5. Toward an integrated, causal, and psychological model of climato-economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Steve; Bratanova, Boyka; Kuppens, Peter

    2013-10-01

    Van de Vliert puts forward a model of how climate and economics interact to shape human needs, stresses, and freedoms. Although we applaud the construction of this model, we suggest that more needs to be done. Specifically, by adopting a multi-level and experimental approach, we can develop an integrated, causal, and psychological model of climato-economics.

  6. The Causal Meaning of Genomic Predictors and How It Affects Construction and Comparison of Genome-Enabled Selection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Bruno D.; Morota, Gota; Peñagaricano, Francisco; Gianola, Daniel; Weigel, Kent; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.

    2015-01-01

    The term “effect” in additive genetic effect suggests a causal meaning. However, inferences of such quantities for selection purposes are typically viewed and conducted as a prediction task. Predictive ability as tested by cross-validation is currently the most acceptable criterion for comparing models and evaluating new methodologies. Nevertheless, it does not directly indicate if predictors reflect causal effects. Such evaluations would require causal inference methods that are not typical in genomic prediction for selection. This suggests that the usual approach to infer genetic effects contradicts the label of the quantity inferred. Here we investigate if genomic predictors for selection should be treated as standard predictors or if they must reflect a causal effect to be useful, requiring causal inference methods. Conducting the analysis as a prediction or as a causal inference task affects, for example, how covariates of the regression model are chosen, which may heavily affect the magnitude of genomic predictors and therefore selection decisions. We demonstrate that selection requires learning causal genetic effects. However, genomic predictors from some models might capture noncausal signal, providing good predictive ability but poorly representing true genetic effects. Simulated examples are used to show that aiming for predictive ability may lead to poor modeling decisions, while causal inference approaches may guide the construction of regression models that better infer the target genetic effect even when they underperform in cross-validation tests. In conclusion, genomic selection models should be constructed to aim primarily for identifiability of causal genetic effects, not for predictive ability. PMID:25908318

  7. Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lemeire

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

  8. Causation or only correlation? Application of causal inference graphs for evaluating causality in nano-QSAR models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizochenko, Natalia; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Leszczynski, Jerzy; Puzyn, Tomasz

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Methods of causal discovery have been applied for broader physical insight into mechanisms of action and interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models. Previously developed nano-QSAR models for toxicity of 17 nano-sized metal oxides towards E. coli bacteria have been validated by means of the causality criteria. Using the descriptors confirmed by the causal technique, we have developed new models consistent with the straightforward causal-reasoning account. It was proven that causal inference methods are able to provide a more robust mechanistic interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models.In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal

  9. Causal Indicator Models: Unresolved Issues of Construction and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    These authors agree with Bainter and Bollen that causal effects represents a useful measurement structure in some applications. The structure of the science of the measurement problem should determine the model; the measurement model should not determine the science. They also applaud Bainter and Bollen's important reminder that the full…

  10. What Is the Latent Variable in Causal Indicator Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.

    2014-01-01

    Building on the work of Bollen (2007) and Bollen & Bauldry (2011), Bainter and Bollen (this issue) clarifies several points of confusion in the literature regarding causal indicator models. This author would certainly agree that the effect indicator (reflective) measurement model is inappropriate for some indicators (such as the social…

  11. The TETRAD Project: Constraint Based Aids to Causal Model Specification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheines, Richard; Spirtes, Peter; Glymour, Clark; Meek, Christopher; Richardson, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    The TETRAD for constraint-based aids to causal model specification project and related work in computer science aims to apply standards of rigor and precision to the problem of using data and background knowledge to make inferences about a model's specifications. Several algorithms that are implemented in the TETRAD II program are presented. (SLD)

  12. Dynamic causal modelling of brain-behaviour relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigoux, L; Daunizeau, J

    2015-08-15

    In this work, we expose a mathematical treatment of brain-behaviour relationships, which we coin behavioural Dynamic Causal Modelling or bDCM. This approach aims at decomposing the brain's transformation of stimuli into behavioural outcomes, in terms of the relative contribution of brain regions and their connections. In brief, bDCM places the brain at the interplay between stimulus and behaviour: behavioural outcomes arise from coordinated activity in (hidden) neural networks, whose dynamics are driven by experimental inputs. Estimating neural parameters that control network connectivity and plasticity effectively performs a neurobiologically-constrained approximation to the brain's input-outcome transform. In other words, neuroimaging data essentially serves to enforce the realism of bDCM's decomposition of input-output relationships. In addition, post-hoc artificial lesions analyses allow us to predict induced behavioural deficits and quantify the importance of network features for funnelling input-output relationships. This is important, because this enables one to bridge the gap with neuropsychological studies of brain-damaged patients. We demonstrate the face validity of the approach using Monte-Carlo simulations, and its predictive validity using empirical fMRI/behavioural data from an inhibitory control task. Lastly, we discuss promising applications of this work, including the assessment of functional degeneracy (in the healthy brain) and the prediction of functional recovery after lesions (in neurological patients).

  13. Political Socialization and Mass Media Use: A Reverse Causality Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Alexis S.

    A reverse causality model treating mass media use for public affairs information as a result rather than as a cause of political behavior was tested utilizing surveys of 190 Mexican-American, 176 black, and 225 white adults. The criterion variable used in each sample was frequency of television and newspaper use for public affairs information. The…

  14. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  15. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-01-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large scale structures. We analyse the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the non-causal Eckart theory, we obtain a third order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behaviour in $\\Lambda$CDM when $z \\geq 1$. Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  16. Causality in 1+1-dimensional Yukawa model-II

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Asrarul Haque; Satish D Joglekar

    2013-10-01

    The limits → large, $M →$ large with ($g^{3}/M$) = const. of the 1+1-dimensional Yukawa model are discussed. The conclusion of the results on bound states of the Yukawa model in this limit (obtained in arXiv:0908.4510v3 [hep-th]) is taken into account. It is found that model reduces to an effective non-local 3 theory in this limit. Causality violation also is observed in this limit.

  17. A Bayesian approach to estimating causal vaccine effects on binary post-infection outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jincheng; Chu, Haitao; Hudgens, Michael G; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2016-01-15

    To estimate causal effects of vaccine on post-infection outcomes, Hudgens and Halloran (2006) defined a post-infection causal vaccine efficacy estimand VEI based on the principal stratification framework. They also derived closed forms for the maximum likelihood estimators of the causal estimand under some assumptions. Extending their research, we propose a Bayesian approach to estimating the causal vaccine effects on binary post-infection outcomes. The identifiability of the causal vaccine effect VEI is discussed under different assumptions on selection bias. The performance of the proposed Bayesian method is compared with the maximum likelihood method through simulation studies and two case studies - a clinical trial of a rotavirus vaccine candidate and a field study of pertussis vaccination. For both case studies, the Bayesian approach provided similar inference as the frequentist analysis. However, simulation studies with small sample sizes suggest that the Bayesian approach provides smaller bias and shorter confidence interval length.

  18. Measured, modeled, and causal conceptions of fitness

    OpenAIRE

    Abrams, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes partial answers to the following questions: in what senses can fitness differences plausibly be considered causes of evolution?What relationships are there between fitness concepts used in empirical research, modeling, and abstract theoretical proposals? How does the relevance of different fitness concepts depend on research questions and methodological constraints? The paper develops a novel taxonomy of fitness concepts, beginning with type fitness (a property of a genoty...

  19. Measured, Modeled, and Causal Conceptions of Fitness

    OpenAIRE

    Marshall eAbrams

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes partial answers to the following questions: In what senses can fitness differences plausibly be considered causes of evolution? What relationships are there between fitness concepts used in empirical research, modeling, and abstract theoretical proposals? How does the relevance of different fitness concepts depend on research questions and methodological constraints? The paper develops a novel taxonomy of fitness concepts, beginning with type fitness (a property of a ge...

  20. On Martingales, Causality, Identifiability and Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander

    or not. We attempt to elucidate what happens in the case where the error distributions are close to but not exactly Gaussian. Finally, Chapter 10 discusses degrees of freedom in nonlinear regression. Our motivating problem is that of L1-constrained and L1-penalized estimation in nonlinear regression. Our...... objective is to obtain results leading to the calculation of the degrees of freedom of an estimator in order to enable sparse model selection by optimal choice of the penalization parameter. We prove two results related to the degrees of freedom, one theoretical result for constrained estimation, and one...... more practically applicable for L1-penalized estimation....

  1. Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-01-01

    With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com

  2. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: A causal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; John, Anslyn; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-08-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large-scale structures. We analyze the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the noncausal Eckart theory, we obtain a third-order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behavior in Λ CDM when z ≥1 . Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  3. Causality between regional stock markets: A frequency domain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.

  4. Scientific realism in particle physics a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Egg, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Does particle physics really describe the basic constituents of the material world or is it just a useful tool for deriving empirical predictions? This book proposes a novel answer to that question, emphasizing the importance of causal reasoning for the justification of scientific claims. It thereby responds to general worries about scientific realism as well as to more specific challenges stemming from the interpretation of quantum physics.

  5. On the Identifiability of the Post-Nonlinear Causal Model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Kun

    2012-01-01

    By taking into account the nonlinear effect of the cause, the inner noise effect, and the measurement distortion effect in the observed variables, the post-nonlinear (PNL) causal model has demonstrated its excellent performance in distinguishing the cause from effect. However, its identifiability has not been properly addressed, and how to apply it in the case of more than two variables is also a problem. In this paper, we conduct a systematic investigation on its identifiability in the two-variable case. We show that this model is identifiable in most cases; by enumerating all possible situations in which the model is not identifiable, we provide sufficient conditions for its identifiability. Simulations are given to support the theoretical results. Moreover, in the case of more than two variables, we show that the whole causal structure can be found by applying the PNL causal model to each structure in the Markov equivalent class and testing if the disturbance is independent of the direct causes for each va...

  6. There aren't plenty more fish in the sea: a causal network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Milena; Lagnado, David A

    2015-11-01

    The current research investigated how lay representations of the causes of an environmental problem may underlie individuals' reasoning about the issue. Naïve participants completed an experiment that involved two main tasks. The causal diagram task required participants to depict the causal relations between a set of factors related to overfishing and to estimate the strength of these relations. The counterfactual task required participants to judge the effect of counterfactual suppositions based on the diagrammed factors. We explored two major questions: (1) what is the relation between individual causal models and counterfactual judgments? Consistent with previous findings (e.g., Green et al., 1998, Br. J. Soc. Psychology, 37, 415), these judgments were best explained by a combination of the strength of both direct and indirect causal paths. (2) To what extent do people use two-way causal thinking when reasoning about an environmental problem? In contrast to previous research (e.g., White, 2008, Appl. Cogn. Psychology, 22, 559), analyses based on individual causal networks revealed the presence of numerous feedback loops. The studies support the value of analysing individual causal models in contrast to consensual representations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in relation to causal reasoning as well as environmental psychology. PMID:25597224

  7. Uniform infinite and Gibbs causal triangulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zohren, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    We discuss uniform infinite causal triangulations (UICT) and Gibbs causal triangulations which are probabilistic models for the causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity. Since there is a bijection between causal triangulations and planar rooted trees we first discuss some as

  8. Causal Dynamical Triangulation of 3D Tensor Model

    CERN Document Server

    Kawabe, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    We extend the string field theory of the two dimensional (2D) generalized causal dynamical triangulation (GCDT) with the Ishibashi-Kawai (IK-) type interaction formulated by the matrix model, to the three dimensional (3D) model of the surface field theory. Based on the loop gas model, we construct a tensor model for the discretized surface field and then apply it the stochastic quantization method. In the double scaling limit, the model is characterized by two scaling dimensions $D$ and $D_N$, the power indices of the minimal length as the scaling parameter. The continuum GCDT model with the IK-type interaction is realized with the similar restriction in the $D_N$-$D$ space, to the 2D model. The distinct property in the 3D model is that the quantum effect contains the IK-type interaction only, while the ordinary splitting interaction is excluded.

  9. A New Lifespan Approach to Conscientiousness and Health: Combining the Pieces of the Causal Puzzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Howard S.; Kern, Margaret L.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2013-01-01

    Conscientiousness has been shown to predict healthy behaviors, healthy social relationships, and physical health and longevity. The causal links, however, are complex and not well elaborated. Many extant studies have used comparable measures for conscientiousness, and a systematic endeavor to build cross-study analyses for conscientiousness and health now seems feasible. Of particular interest are efforts to construct new, more-comprehensive causal models by linking findings and combining data from existing studies of different cohorts. Although methodological perils can threaten such integration, such efforts offer an early opportunity to enliven a life course perspective on conscientiousness, to see whether component facets of conscientiousness remain related to each other and to relevant mediators across broad spans of time, and to bolster the findings of the very few long-term longitudinal studies of the dynamics of personality and health. A promising approach to testing new models involves pooling data from extant studies, as an efficient and heuristic prelude to large-scale testing of interventions. PMID:23088747

  10. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P.

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

  11. Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

    2012-11-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.

  12. Interference between Cues Requires a Causal Scenario: Favorable Evidence for Causal Reasoning Models in Learning Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque, David; Cobos, Pedro L.; Lopez, Francisco J.

    2008-01-01

    In an interference-between-cues design (IbC), the expression of a learned Cue A-Outcome 1 association has been shown to be impaired if another cue, B, is separately paired with the same outcome in a second learning phase. The present study examined whether IbC could be caused by associative mechanisms independent of causal reasoning processes.…

  13. A Causal Relationship between Inflation and Productivity: An Empirical Approach for Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Dritsakis

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to analyze the relationship between the productivity and the inflation of a transition country of the European Union as Romania. For this purpose we use quarterly data since 1990: IV in 2003: I and the causality analysis, which is based on an error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis showed that there is a causal relationship between inflation and productivity in the Romanian economy."

  14. Goal orientations in sport: a causal model Orientaciones de Meta en el deporte: un modelo causal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco P. Holgado

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The study is based on research work relating goal orientation in sport with contextual variables and personal variables. The sample was 511 professional athletes. A “causal” model is proposed in which task and goal ego orientations are the dependent variables. A hypothetical model is obtained using structural equations modelling, supporting that: a athletes who find satisfaction experimenting mastery, who perceive a motivational climate that rewards hard work and who believe that success depends on their effort, develop task goal orientation; and b athletes who get satisfaction demonstrating greater capacity than the rest, who live a motivational climate that leads them to be better than the others and that only rewards the best players, and whose main motive for practising sport is to achieve certain social status and popularity, will have an ego goal orientation. Este trabajo parte de las investigaciones que relacionan las orientaciones de meta en el deporte con variables contextuales, como el clima motivacional percibido, y con variables personales, tales como la satisfacción con los resultados deportivos, las creencias relacionadas con los factores implicados en la obtención del éxito y los motivos por lo que se practica deporte. La muestra está compuesta por 511 deportistas profesionales. Se llevan a cabo análisis de regresión múltiple y se propone un modelo causal en el que las variables a predecir son las orientaciones de meta, a la tarea y al ego. Con ecuaciones estructurales se contrasta un modelo hipotético, que presenta un ajuste adecuado, y que defiende que: a el deportista que encuentra la satisfacción experimentando maestría, que percibe un clima motivacional que premia el trabajo duro y que cree que el éxito depende de su esfuerzo, desarrolla una orientación de meta a la tarea: y b que el deportista que obtiene satisfacción demostrando mayor capacidad que los demás, que vive un clima motivacional que le conduce a

  15. Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

    2015-04-01

    Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

  16. Compton scattering in a unitary approach with causality constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kondratyuk, S.; Scholten, O.

    2000-01-01

    Pion-loop corrections for Compton scattering are calculated in a novel approach bused on the use of dispersion relations in a formalism obeying unitarity. The basic framework is presented, including an application to Compton scattering. In the approach the effects of the non-pole contribution arisin

  17. Granger Causality in Multivariate Time Series Using a Time-Ordered Restricted Vector Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siggiridou, Elsa; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

    2016-04-01

    Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). In the presence of many observed variables and relatively short time series, CGCI may fail because it is based on vector autoregressive models (VAR) involving a large number of coefficients to be estimated. In this work, the VAR is restricted by a scheme that modifies the recently developed method of backward-in-time selection (BTS) of the lagged variables and the CGCI is combined with BTS. Further, the proposed approach is compared favorably to other restricted VAR representations, such as the top-down strategy, the bottom-up strategy, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), in terms of sensitivity and specificity of CGCI. This is shown by using simulations of linear and nonlinear, low and high-dimensional systems and different time series lengths. For nonlinear systems, CGCI from the restricted VAR representations are compared with analogous nonlinear causality indices. Further, CGCI in conjunction with BTS and other restricted VAR representations is applied to multi-channel scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings of epileptic patients containing epileptiform discharges. CGCI on the restricted VAR, and BTS in particular, could track the changes in brain connectivity before, during and after epileptiform discharges, which was not possible using the full VAR representation.

  18. Physiologically informed dynamic causal modeling of fMRI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlicek, Martin; Roebroeck, Alard; Friston, Karl; Gardumi, Anna; Ivanov, Dimo; Uludag, Kamil

    2015-11-15

    The functional MRI (fMRI) signal is an indirect measure of neuronal activity. In order to deconvolve the neuronal activity from the experimental fMRI data, biophysical generative models have been proposed describing the link between neuronal activity and the cerebral blood flow (the neurovascular coupling), and further the hemodynamic response and the BOLD signal equation. These generative models have been employed both for single brain area deconvolution and to infer effective connectivity in networks of multiple brain areas. In the current paper, we introduce a new fMRI model inspired by experimental observations about the physiological underpinnings of the BOLD signal and compare it with the generative models currently used in dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a widely used framework to study effective connectivity in the brain. We consider three fundamental aspects of such generative models for fMRI: (i) an adaptive two-state neuronal model that accounts for a wide repertoire of neuronal responses during and after stimulation; (ii) feedforward neurovascular coupling that links neuronal activity to blood flow; and (iii) a balloon model that can account for vascular uncoupling between the blood flow and the blood volume. Finally, we adjust the parameterization of the BOLD signal equation for different magnetic field strengths. This paper focuses on the form, motivation and phenomenology of DCMs for fMRI and the characteristics of the various models are demonstrated using simulations. These simulations emphasize a more accurate modeling of the transient BOLD responses - such as adaptive decreases to sustained inputs during stimulation and the post-stimulus undershoot. In addition, we demonstrate using experimental data that it is necessary to take into account both neuronal and vascular transients to accurately model the signal dynamics of fMRI data. By refining the models of the transient responses, we provide a more informed perspective on the underlying neuronal

  19. Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

  20. A Causal Approach to Interrelated Family Events: A Cross-National Comparison fo Cohabitation, Non-marital Conception, and Marriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blossfeld, Hans-Peter

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available FrenchOne of the most important advances brought about by life course and eventhistory studies is the use of parallel or independent processes as explaining history factors intransition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study ofinterrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed bytwo event history perspectives: the "system" and "causal" approaches. The authors assert that thecausal approach is more appropriate from an analytical point of view as it provides a straightforwardsolution to simultaneity, cause-effect lags, and temporal shapes of effects. Based on comparativecross-national applications in West and East Germany, Canada, Latvia and the Netherlands, wedemonstrate the usefulness of the causal approach by analyzing two highly interdependent famlyprocesses: entry into marriage (for individuals who are in a consensual union as the dependentprocess and first pregnancy/childbirth as the explaining one. Both statistical and theorteticalexplanations are explored emphasizing the need for conceptual reasoning.FrenchL’utilisation des processus interdépendants ou parallèles en tant que facteursexplicatifs dans des modèles des transitions aux quotients instantanés est une descontributions les plus importantes de l’analyse des biographies. Le but de cetarticle est d’appliquer une approche causale à l’analyse des événements familiauxinterdépendants. L’étude présente une typologie de processus parallèles et deuxperspectives de l’analyse des biographies: les approches ‘systémique’ et‘causale’. Les auteurs soutiennent que l’approche causale est plus appropriée dupoint de vue d’analyse. Elle offre une solution valable aux problèmes desimultanéité, les problèmes de décalage dans les intervalles entre la cause etl’effet, et, enfin, les problèmes des courbes temporelles modelées par les effets.L’utilité de cette

  1. A restricted dimer model on a two-dimensional random causal triangulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambjørn, Jan; Durhuus, Bergfinnur; Wheater, J. F.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a restricted hard dimer model on a random causal triangulation that is exactly solvable and generalizes a model recently proposed by Atkin and Zohren (2012 Phys. Lett. B 712 445–50). We show that the latter model exhibits unusual behaviour at its multicritical point; in particular, its...... causal triangulation....

  2. Learning about causes from people and about people as causes: probabilistic models and social causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchsbaum, Daphna; Seiver, Elizabeth; Bridgers, Sophie; Gopnik, Alison

    2012-01-01

    A major challenge children face is uncovering the causal structure of the world around them. Previous research on children's causal inference has demonstrated their ability to learn about causal relationships in the physical environment using probabilistic evidence. However, children must also learn about causal relationships in the social environment, including discovering the causes of other people's behavior, and understanding the causal relationships between others' goal-directed actions and the outcomes of those actions. In this chapter, we argue that social reasoning and causal reasoning are deeply linked, both in the real world and in children's minds. Children use both types of information together and in fact reason about both physical and social causation in fundamentally similar ways. We suggest that children jointly construct and update causal theories about their social and physical environment and that this process is best captured by probabilistic models of cognition. We first present studies showing that adults are able to jointly infer causal structure and human action structure from videos of unsegmented human motion. Next, we describe how children use social information to make inferences about physical causes. We show that the pedagogical nature of a demonstrator influences children's choices of which actions to imitate from within a causal sequence and that this social information interacts with statistical causal evidence. We then discuss how children combine evidence from an informant's testimony and expressed confidence with evidence from their own causal observations to infer the efficacy of different potential causes. We also discuss how children use these same causal observations to make inferences about the knowledge state of the social informant. Finally, we suggest that psychological causation and attribution are part of the same causal system as physical causation. We present evidence that just as children use covariation between

  3. Causality and Composite Structure

    CERN Document Server

    Joglekar, Satish D

    2007-01-01

    We study the question of whether a composite structure of elementary particles, with a length scale $1/\\Lambda$, can leave observable effects of non-locality and causality violation at higher energies (but $\\lesssim \\Lambda$). We formulate a model-independent approach based on Bogoliubov-Shirkov formulation of causality. We analyze the relation between the fundamental theory (of finer constituents) and the derived theory (of composite particles). We assume that the fundamental theory is causal and formulate a condition which must be fulfilled for the derived theory to be causal. We analyze the condition and exhibit possibilities which fulfil and which violate the condition. We make comments on how causality violating amplitudes can arise.

  4. Annotation: the development of antisocial behavior: an integrative causal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, B B; Waldman, I D; McBurnett, K

    1999-07-01

    In this paper we have described an integrative causal model of the development of antisocial behavior in children and adolescents. The present model primarily integrates several previous models, but offers some new testable hypotheses. We believe that stable individual differences in propensity to antisocial behavior reflect variations in a number of dimensions of predisposing temperament and cognitive ability, each with its own genetic and environmental influences. The dimensions of predisposing temperament include oppositionality, harm avoidance, and callousness. Genetic influences are predicted to have only indirect effects on antisocial behavior via their influence on predisposition and on the youth's social environment. Environmental influences are expected to be important contributors to antisocial propensity, but these environmental influences reflect, in part, the genetic influences on the dimensions of predisposition (i.e. genotype-environment covariance). We also hypothesize that the levels of influence of the factors that determine individual differences in antisocial propensity change with development, such that genetic influences are of greater magnitude in early childhood and social influences contribute more strongly during later childhood and adolescence (both through independent effects and genotype-environment covariance). However, low levels of heritable predisposing child characteristics may protect against peer influences at all ages. PMID:10433402

  5. Gradient-based MCMC samplers for dynamic causal modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengupta, Biswa; Friston, Karl J; Penny, Will D

    2016-01-15

    In this technical note, we derive two MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) samplers for dynamic causal models (DCMs). Specifically, we use (a) Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC-E) where sampling is simulated using Hamilton's equation of motion and (b) Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm (LMC-R and LMC-E) that simulates the Langevin diffusion of samples using gradients either on a Euclidean (E) or on a Riemannian (R) manifold. While LMC-R requires minimal tuning, the implementation of HMC-E is heavily dependent on its tuning parameters. These parameters are therefore optimised by learning a Gaussian process model of the time-normalised sample correlation matrix. This allows one to formulate an objective function that balances tuning parameter exploration and exploitation, furnishing an intervention-free inference scheme. Using neural mass models (NMMs)-a class of biophysically motivated DCMs-we find that HMC-E is statistically more efficient than LMC-R (with a Riemannian metric); yet both gradient-based samplers are far superior to the random walk Metropolis algorithm, which proves inadequate to steer away from dynamical instability.

  6. Establishing Causality Using Longitudinal Hierarchical Linear Modeling: An Illustration Predicting Achievement From Self-Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duckworth, Angela Lee; Tsukayama, Eli; May, Henry

    2010-01-01

    The predictive validity of personality for important life outcomes is well established, but conventional longitudinal analyses cannot rule out the possibility that unmeasured third-variable confounds fully account for the observed relationships. Longitudinal hierarchical linear models (HLM) with time-varying covariates allow each subject to serve as his or her own control, thus eliminating between-individual confounds. HLM also allows the directionality of the causal relationship to be tested by reversing time-lagged predictor and outcome variables. We illustrate these techniques through a series of models that demonstrate that within-individual changes in self-control over time predict subsequent changes in GPA but not vice-versa. The evidence supporting a causal role for self-control was not moderated by IQ, gender, ethnicity, or income. Further analyses rule out one time-varying confound: self-esteem. The analytic approach taken in this study provides the strongest evidence to date for the causal role of self-control in determining achievement. PMID:20976121

  7. Introduction to causal dynamical triangulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Görlich, Andrzej

    2013-01-01

    The method of causal dynamical triangulations is a non-perturbative and background-independent approach to quantum theory of gravity. In this review we present recent results obtained within the four dimensional model of causal dynamical triangulations. We describe the phase structure of the model...

  8. Does Teaching Students How to Explicitly Model the Causal Structure of Systems Improve Their Understanding of These Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Eva

    2014-01-01

    If students really understand the systems they study, they would be able to tell how changes in the system would affect a result. This demands that the students understand the mechanisms that drive its behaviour. The study investigates potential merits of learning how to explicitly model the causal structure of systems. The approach and…

  9. Causal Modeling--Path Analysis a New Trend in Research in Applied Linguistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastegar, Mina

    2006-01-01

    This article aims at discussing a new statistical trend in research in applied linguistics. This rather new statistical procedure is causal modeling--path analysis. The article demonstrates that causal modeling--path analysis is the best statistical option to use when the effects of a multitude of L2 learners' variables on language achievement are…

  10. External Debt, Internal Debt and Economic Growth Bound in Nigeria using a Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amassoma J. Ditimi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the causal nexus between external debt, domestic debt and economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2009 using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR and a Vector Error Correction (VEC models. The variables used in the study were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip Perron test. The result showed that the variables are stationary at first differencing. Co-integration test was also performed and the result revealed the absence of co-integration between domestic debt and economic growth while the result also revealed the presence of co-integration between external debt and economic growth. The co-integration results determined the appropriateness of methodological test for causality. The findings of the VAR model revealed that there is a bi-directional causality between domestic debt and economic growth while that of the VEC model revealed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should rely more on domestic debt in stimulating growth than on external debt.

  11. Granger Causality in Multi-variate Time Series using a Time Ordered Restricted Vector Autoregressive Model

    CERN Document Server

    Siggiridou, Elsa

    2015-01-01

    Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). In the presence of many observed variables and relatively short time series, CGCI may fail because it is based on vector autoregressive models (VAR) involving a large number of coefficients to be estimated. In this work, the VAR is restricted by a scheme that modifies the recently developed method of backward-in-time selection (BTS) of the lagged variables and the CGCI is combined with BTS. Further, the proposed approach is compared favorably to other restricted VAR representations, such as the top-down strategy, the bottom-up strategy, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), in terms of sensitivity and specificity of CGCI. This is shown by using simulations of linear and nonlinear, low and high-dimensional systems and different t...

  12. How can we cope with the complexity of the environment? A "Learning by modelling" approach using qualitative reasoning for developing causal models and simulations with focus on Sustainable River Catchment Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Michaela; Zitek, Andreas; Salles, Paulo; Bredeweg, Bert; Muhar, Susanne

    2010-05-01

    The education system needs strategies to attract future scientists and practitioners. There is an alarming decline in the number of students choosing science subjects. Reasons for this include the perceived complexity and the lack of effective cognitive tools that enable learners to acquire the expertise in a way that fits its qualitative nature. The DynaLearn project utilises a "Learning by modelling" approach to deliver an individualised and engaging cognitive tool for acquiring conceptual knowledge. The modelling approach is based on qualitative reasoning, a research area within artificial intelligence, and allows for capturing and simulating qualitative systems knowledge. Educational activities within the DynaLearn software address topics at different levels of complexity, depending on the educational goals and settings. DynaLearn uses virtual characters in the learning environment as agents for engaging and motivating the students during their modelling exercise. The DynaLearn software represents an interactive learning environment in which learners are in control of their learning activities. The software is able to coach them individually based on their current progress, their knowledge needs and learning goals. Within the project 70 expert models on different environmental issues covering seven core topics (Earth Systems and Resources, The Living World, Human population, Land and Water Use, Energy Resources and Consumption, Pollution, and Global Changes) will be delivered. In the context of the core topic "Land and Water Use" the Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management has developed a model on Sustainable River Catchment Management. River systems with their catchments have been tremendously altered due to human pressures with serious consequences for the ecological integrity of riverine landscapes. The operation of hydropower plants, the implementation of flood protection measures, the regulation of flow and sediment regime and intensive

  13. Ways forward : Effectual and causal approaches to innovation in the Swedish magazine industry

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Anette

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation builds on a study of key decision makers in the Swedish magazine publishing industry with a particular focus on how they think and act in their work to innovate their industry. This industry, much like the rest of the media industry, is facing increased unpredictability regarding for example the impact of new technology on the business and future demand. Traditional planning (causal) approaches can be greatly questioned in times of uncertainty, when the task at hand include ...

  14. Causal Agency Theory: Reconceptualizing a Functional Model of Self-Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shogren, Karrie A.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Palmer, Susan B.; Forber-Pratt, Anjali J.; Little, Todd J.; Lopez, Shane

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces Causal Agency Theory, an extension of the functional model of self-determination. Causal Agency Theory addresses the need for interventions and assessments pertaining to selfdetermination for all students and incorporates the significant advances in understanding of disability and in the field of positive psychology since the…

  15. Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state and future extensions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Klaas E Stephan; Lee M Harrison; Stefan J Kiebel; Olivier David; Will D Penny; Karl J Friston

    2007-01-01

    Complex processes resulting from interaction of multiple elements can rarely be understood by analytical scientific approaches alone; additional, mathematical models of system dynamics are required. This insight, which disciplines like physics have embraced for a long time already, is gradually gaining importance in the study of cognitive processes by functional neuroimaging. In this field, causal mechanisms in neural systems are described in terms of effective connectivity. Recently, dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was introduced as a generic method to estimate effective connectivity from neuroimaging data in a Bayesian fashion. One of the key advantages of DCM over previous methods is that it distinguishes between neural state equations and modality-specific forward models that translate neural activity into a measured signal. Another strength is its natural relation to Bayesian model selection (BMS) procedures. In this article, we review the conceptual and mathematical basis of DCM and its implementation for functional magnetic resonance imaging data and event-related potentials. After introducing the application of BMS in the context of DCM, we conclude with an outlook to future extensions of DCM. These extensions are guided by the long-term goal of using dynamic system models for pharmacological and clinical applications, particularly with regard to synaptic plasticity.

  16. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  17. Investigating the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a mendelian randomization approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husemoen, L. L. N.; Skaaby, T.; Martinussen, Torben;

    2014-01-01

    doubling of 25(OH)D was 4.78, 95% CI: 1.96, 7.68, P<0.001). Using variations in the vitamin D-binding protein gene and the filaggrin gene as instrumental variables, the causal effect in % was estimated to 61.46, 95% CI: 17.51, 120.28, P=0.003 higher adiponectin per doubling of 25(OH)D. In the MONICA10......Background/Objectives: The aim was to examine the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a multiple instrument Mendelian randomization approach. Subjects/Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and serum total or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin were measured in two...

  18. A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

  19. Causal Dynamical Triangulations in the Spincube Model of Quantum Gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Vojinovic, Marko

    2015-01-01

    We study the implications of the simplicity constraint in the spincube model of quantum gravity. Relating the edge-lengths to integer triangle areas, the simplicity constraint imposes a very strong restrictions between them, ultimately leading to a requirement that all 4-simplices in the triangulation must be almost mutually identical. As a surprising and unexpected consequence of this property, one can obtain the CDT state sum as a special case of the spincube state sum. This relationship brings new insight into the long-standing problem of the relationship between the spinfoam approach and the CDT approach to quantum gravity. In particular, it turns out that the spincube model contains properties of both approaches, providing a single unifying framework for their analysis and comparison. In addition, the spincube state sum also contains some other special cases, very similar but not equivalent to the CDT state sum.

  20. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Shuixia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE, Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Results Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins. For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. Conclusions The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  1. Dynamical dimensional reduction in toy models of 4D causal quantum gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Giasemidis, Georgios; Zohren, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    In recent years several approaches to quantum gravity have found evidence for a scale dependent spectral dimension of space-time varying from four at large scales to two at small scales of order of the Planck length. The first evidence came from numerical results of four-dimensional causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) [Ambj{\\o}rn et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 95 (2005) 171]. Since then little progress has been made in analytically understanding the numerical results coming from the CDT approach and showing that they remain valid when taking the continuum limit. In this letter we propose a new toy model of "radially reduced" four-dimensional CDT in which we can take the continuum limit analytically and obtain a scale dependent spectral dimension varying from four to two with scale. Furthermore, the functional behaviour of the spectral dimension is exactly of the form which was conjectured on the basis of the numerical results.

  2. Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

    2016-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses. PMID:26832914

  3. Some speculations on a beginning of a causal unified model of relativity, gravitation and quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some speculations on a causal model that seems to provide a common conceptual foundation for Relativity Gravitation and Quantum Mechanics are presented. The present approach is a unifying of three theories. The first being the repulsive theory of gravitational forces first proposed by Lesage in the eighteenth century. The second of these theories is the Brownian Motion Theory of Quantum Mechanics or Stocastic Mechanics which treats the non-deterministic Nature of Quantum Mechanics as being due to a Brownian motion of all objects. This Brownian motion being caused by the statistical variation in the graviton flux. The above two theories are unified with the Causal Theory of Special Relativity. Within the present context, the time dilations (and other effects) of Relativity are explained by assuming that the rate of a clock is a function of the total number or intensity of gravitons and the average frequency or energy of the gravitons that the clock receives. The Special Theory would then be the special case of the General Theory where the intensity is constant but the average frequency varies. In all the previous it is necessary to assume a particular model of the creation of the universe, namely the Big Bang Theory. This assumption gives us the existence of a preferred reference frame, the frame in which the Big Bang explosion was at rest. The above concepts of graviton distribution and real time dilations become meaningful by assuming the Big Bang Theory along with this preferred frame. An experimental test is proposed

  4. Structure-Based Statistical Mechanical Model Accounts for the Causality and Energetics of Allosteric Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnera, Enrico; Berezovsky, Igor N

    2016-03-01

    Allostery is one of the pervasive mechanisms through which proteins in living systems carry out enzymatic activity, cell signaling, and metabolism control. Effective modeling of the protein function regulation requires a synthesis of the thermodynamic and structural views of allostery. We present here a structure-based statistical mechanical model of allostery, allowing one to observe causality of communication between regulatory and functional sites, and to estimate per residue free energy changes. Based on the consideration of ligand free and ligand bound systems in the context of a harmonic model, corresponding sets of characteristic normal modes are obtained and used as inputs for an allosteric potential. This potential quantifies the mean work exerted on a residue due to the local motion of its neighbors. Subsequently, in a statistical mechanical framework the entropic contribution to allosteric free energy of a residue is directly calculated from the comparison of conformational ensembles in the ligand free and ligand bound systems. As a result, this method provides a systematic approach for analyzing the energetics of allosteric communication based on a single structure. The feasibility of the approach was tested on a variety of allosteric proteins, heterogeneous in terms of size, topology and degree of oligomerization. The allosteric free energy calculations show the diversity of ways and complexity of scenarios existing in the phenomenology of allosteric causality and communication. The presented model is a step forward in developing the computational techniques aimed at detecting allosteric sites and obtaining the discriminative power between agonistic and antagonistic effectors, which are among the major goals in allosteric drug design. PMID:26939022

  5. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED4. I: Free theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of the axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles (k+)−n arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have the correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use of rigorous mathematical machinery of the distributional theory combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how the analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties within the framework of Wightman’s formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar and fermionic fields, as well as for the dynamical components of the electromagnetic field. In conclusion, we introduce the Epstein–Glaser causal method in order to have a mathematical rigorous description of the free propagators of the theory, allowing us to discuss a general treatment for propagators of the type (k+)−n. Afterwards, we show that at given conditions our results reproduce known prescriptions in the literature. - Highlights: • We develop the analytic representation for propagators in Wightman’s framework. • We make use of the analytic representation to obtain equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front. • We derive the free Feynman propagators for the light-front quantum electrodynamics in the Epstein–Glaser approach. • We determine a general expression for the propagator associated to the light-cone poles (k+)−n in the causal approach

  6. Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A. Ashley

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an “in-sample” period – purportedly utilized only for model specification/estimation – and a “post-sample” period, purportedly utilized (only at the end of the analysis for model validation/testing purposes. This partitioning is usually infeasible, however, with samples of modest length – e.g., T ≤ 150 – as is common in both quarterly data sets and/or in monthly data sets where institutional arrangements vary over time, simply because there is in such cases insufficient data available to credibly accomplish both purposes separately. A cross-sample validation (CSV testing procedure is proposed below which both eliminates the aforementioned a priori partitioning and which also substantially ameliorates this power versus credibility predicament – preserving most of the power of in-sample testing (by utilizing all of the sample data in the test, while also retaining most of the credibility of post-sample testing (by always basing model forecasts on data not utilized in estimating that particular model’s coefficients. Simulations show that the price paid, in terms of power relative to the in-sample Granger-causality F test, is manageable. An illustrative application is given, to a re-analysis of the Engel andWest [1] study of the causal relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate; several of their conclusions are changed by our analysis.

  7. Simulation of system models containing zero-order causal paths - I. Classification of zero-order causal paths

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, van J.; Breedveld, P.C.

    1991-01-01

    The existence of zero-order causal paths in bond graphs of physical systems implies the set of state equations to be an implicit mixed set of Differential and Algebraic Equations (DAEs). In the block diagram expansion of such a bond graph, this type of causal path corresponds with a zero-order loop.

  8. A restricted dimer model on a 2-dimensional random causal triangulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ambjorn, J; Wheater, J F

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a restricted hard dimer model on a random causal triangulation that is exactly solvable and generalizes a model recently proposed by Atkin and Zohren. We show that the latter model exhibits unusual behaviour at its multicritical point; in particular, its Hausdorff dimension equals 3 and not 3/2 as would be expected from general scaling arguments. When viewed as a special case of the generalized model introduced here we show that this behaviour is not generic and therefore is not likely to represent the true behaviour of the full dimer model on a random causal triangulation.

  9. Inferring tree causal models of cancer progression with probability raising.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loes Olde Loohuis

    Full Text Available Existing techniques to reconstruct tree models of progression for accumulative processes, such as cancer, seek to estimate causation by combining correlation and a frequentist notion of temporal priority. In this paper, we define a novel theoretical framework called CAPRESE (CAncer PRogression Extraction with Single Edges to reconstruct such models based on the notion of probabilistic causation defined by Suppes. We consider a general reconstruction setting complicated by the presence of noise in the data due to biological variation, as well as experimental or measurement errors. To improve tolerance to noise we define and use a shrinkage-like estimator. We prove the correctness of our algorithm by showing asymptotic convergence to the correct tree under mild constraints on the level of noise. Moreover, on synthetic data, we show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, that it is efficient even with a relatively small number of samples and that its performance quickly converges to its asymptote as the number of samples increases. For real cancer datasets obtained with different technologies, we highlight biologically significant differences in the progressions inferred with respect to other competing techniques and we also show how to validate conjectured biological relations with progression models.

  10. Integrative analysis of functional genomic annotations and sequencing data to identify rare causal variants via hierarchical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela eCapanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach

  11. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  12. Complexity-entropy causality plane: a useful approach for distinguishing songs

    CERN Document Server

    Ribeiro, H V; Mendes, R S; Lenzi, E K

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays we are often faced with huge databases resulting from the rapid growth of data storage technologies. This is particularly true when dealing with music databases. In this context, it is essential to have techniques and tools able to discriminate properties from these massive sets. In this work, we report on a statistical analysis of more than ten thousand songs aiming to obtain a complexity hierarchy. Our approach is based on the estimation of the permutation entropy combined with an intensive complexity measure, building up the complexity-entropy causality plane. The results obtained indicate that this representation space is very promising to discriminate songs as well as to allow a relative quantitative comparison among songs. Additionally, we believe that the here-reported method may be applied in practical situations since it is simple, robust and has a fast numerical implementation.

  13. Complexity-entropy causality plane: A useful approach for distinguishing songs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Haroldo V.; Zunino, Luciano; Mendes, Renio S.; Lenzi, Ervin K.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays we are often faced with huge databases resulting from the rapid growth of data storage technologies. This is particularly true when dealing with music databases. In this context, it is essential to have techniques and tools able to discriminate properties from these massive sets. In this work, we report on a statistical analysis of more than ten thousand songs aiming to obtain a complexity hierarchy. Our approach is based on the estimation of the permutation entropy combined with an intensive complexity measure, building up the complexity-entropy causality plane. The results obtained indicate that this representation space is very promising to discriminate songs as well as to allow a relative quantitative comparison among songs. Additionally, we believe that the here-reported method may be applied in practical situations since it is simple, robust and has a fast numerical implementation.

  14. Calculating and Understanding: Formal Models and Causal Explanations in Science, Common Reasoning and Physics Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besson, Ugo

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the different types of reasoning and physical explanation used in science, common thought, and physics teaching. It then reflects on the learning difficulties connected with these various approaches, and suggests some possible didactic strategies. Although causal reasoning occurs very frequently in common thought…

  15. Epidemiological causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  16. A Non-Classical Linear Xenomorph as a Model for Quantum Causal Space

    CERN Document Server

    Raptis, I

    1999-01-01

    A quantum picture of the causal structure of Minkowski space M is presented. The mathematical model employed to this end is a non-classical version of the classical topos {H} of real quaternion algebras used elsewhere to organize the perceptions of spacetime events of a Boolean observer into M. Certain key properties of this new quantum topos are highlighted by contrast against the corresponding ones of its classical counterpart {H} modelling M and are seen to accord with some key features of the algebraically quantized causal set structure.

  17. Modeling the mechanism of action of a DGAT1 inhibitor using a causal reasoning platform.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed E Enayetallah

    Full Text Available Triglyceride accumulation is associated with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Genetic disruption of diacylglycerol acyltransferase 1 (DGAT1, which catalyzes the final reaction of triglyceride synthesis, confers dramatic resistance to high-fat diet induced obesity. Hence, DGAT1 is considered a potential therapeutic target for treating obesity and related metabolic disorders. However, the molecular events shaping the mechanism of action of DGAT1 pharmacological inhibition have not been fully explored yet. Here, we investigate the metabolic molecular mechanisms induced in response to pharmacological inhibition of DGAT1 using a recently developed computational systems biology approach, the Causal Reasoning Engine (CRE. The CRE algorithm utilizes microarray transcriptomic data and causal statements derived from the biomedical literature to infer upstream molecular events driving these transcriptional changes. The inferred upstream events (also called hypotheses are aggregated into biological models using a set of analytical tools that allow for evaluation and integration of the hypotheses in context of their supporting evidence. In comparison to gene ontology enrichment analysis which pointed to high-level changes in metabolic processes, the CRE results provide detailed molecular hypotheses to explain the measured transcriptional changes. CRE analysis of gene expression changes in high fat habituated rats treated with a potent and selective DGAT1 inhibitor demonstrate that the majority of transcriptomic changes support a metabolic network indicative of reversal of high fat diet effects that includes a number of molecular hypotheses such as PPARG, HNF4A and SREBPs. Finally, the CRE-generated molecular hypotheses from DGAT1 inhibitor treated rats were found to capture the major molecular characteristics of DGAT1 deficient mice, supporting a phenotype of decreased lipid and increased insulin sensitivity.

  18. The Causal approach for the electron-positron scattering in the Generalized Quantum Electrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study the generalized electrodynamics contribution for the electron-positron scattering process, $e^{-}e^{+}\\rightarrow e^{-}e^{+}$, the Bhabha scattering. Within the framework of the standard model, for energies larger when compared to the electron mass, we calculate the cross section expression for the scattering process. This quantity is usually calculated in the framework of the Maxwell electrodynamics and, by phenomenological reasons, corrected by a cut-off parameter. On the other hand, by considering the generalized electrodynamics instead of Maxwell's, we can show that the effects played by the Podolsky mass is actually a natural cut-off parameter for this scattering process. Furthermore, by means of experimental data of Bhabha scattering we will estimate its lower bound value. Nevertheless, in order to have a mathematically well defined description of our study we shall present our discussion in the framework of the Epstein-Glaser causal theory.

  19. Simulation of system models containing zero-order causal paths - I. Classification of zero-order causal paths

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk; Breedveld, P.C.

    1991-01-01

    The existence of zero-order causal paths in bond graphs of physical systems implies the set of state equations to be an implicit mixed set of Differential and Algebraic Equations (DAEs). In the block diagram expansion of such a bond graph, this type of causal path corresponds with a zero-order loop. In this paper the numerical solution of the DAEs by methods commonly used for solving stiff systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) is discussed. Apart from a description of the numerica...

  20. Combining GWAS and RNA-Seq Approaches for Detection of the Causal Mutation for Hereditary Junctional Epidermolysis Bullosa in Sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-Vega, Aroa; Gutiérrez-Gil, Beatriz; Benavides, Julio; Perez, Valentín; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Klopp, Christophe; Keennel, Stephen J.; Arranz, Juan José

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the use of a genome-wide association mapping together with RNA-seq in a reduced number of samples, as an efficient approach to detect the causal mutation for a Mendelian disease. Junctional epidermolysis bullosa is a recessive genodermatosis that manifests with neonatal mechanical fragility of the skin, blistering confined to the lamina lucida of the basement membrane and severe alteration of the hemidesmosomal junctions. In Spanish Churra sheep, junctional epidermolysis bullosa (JEB) has been detected in two commercial flocks. The JEB locus was mapped to Ovis aries chromosome 11 by GWAS and subsequently fine-mapped to an 868-kb homozygous segment using the identical-by-descent method. The ITGB4, which is located within this region, was identified as the best positional and functional candidate gene. The RNA-seq variant analysis enabled us to discover a 4-bp deletion within exon 33 of the ITGB4 gene (c.4412_4415del). The c.4412_4415del mutation causes a frameshift resulting in a premature stop codon at position 1472 of the integrin β4 protein. A functional analysis of this deletion revealed decreased levels of mRNA in JEB skin samples and the absence of integrin β4 labeling in immunohistochemical assays. Genotyping of c.4412_4415del showed perfect concordance with the recessive mode of the disease phenotype. Selection against this causal mutation will now be used to solve the problem of JEB in flocks of Churra sheep. Furthermore, the identification of the ITGB4 mutation means that affected sheep can be used as a large mammal animal model for the human form of epidermolysis bullosa with aplasia cutis. Our approach evidences that RNA-seq offers cost-effective alternative to identify variants in the species in which high resolution exome-sequencing is not straightforward. PMID:25955497

  1. The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the causal link between monthly oil futures price changes and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index changes. The causal linkage between oil and stock markets is modelled using a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters so as to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. A Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, in which causal link between the series is stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain, is used for inferring time-varying causality. Although we do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality, the results based on the MS-VAR model clearly show that oil futures price has strong regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index during various sub-periods in the sample, while there is a weak evidence for the regime prediction power of a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock indexes. The regime-prediction non-causality tests on the MS-VAR model show that both variables are useful for making inference about the regime process and that the evidence on regime-prediction causality is primarily found in the equation describing a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock market returns. The evidence from the conditional non-causality tests shows that past information on the other series fails to improve the one step ahead prediction for both oil futures and stock returns. - Highlights: • We analyse the causal links between oil futures price and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 index. • The causal links are modelled using a regime switching model. • We do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality between the series. • The results show that oil futures price has regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index

  2. Invariant Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and Application in Causal Discovery

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard; Janzing, Dominik

    2012-01-01

    In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related to causal discovery in the presence of nonlinear confounders, which is a challenging problem. However, generally in such models the observation noise is assumed to be independent across data dimensions, and consequently the noise dependencies are ignored. In...

  3. "Great Ideas" in Russian Psychology: Personality Impact on Psychophysiological Functions and Causal Approach to Self- determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Mironenko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Russian psychology has brought into the world science at least two great ideas: the conditioned reflex (Pavlov and the zone of proximal development (Vygotsky. These concepts were formulated before “iron curtain” fell. Since then Russian science dropped out from the view of western colleagues for decades. Now it is challenged to re-join international mainstream. Are we in a position to contribute?A key concept for Russian psychology is personality impact on psycho-physiological functions and causal approach to self-determination. The concept of selfdetermination appeared in Western theories in 1980-es and since then it has been developed in the context of teleological humanitarian approach. In Russian science the concept of self-determination dates back to 1934, when it was defined by Rubinstein as “sub’ekt”. Self-determination of ontogenesis of psycho physiological functions resulting from confluence of ontogenesis and social development was explicated by Russian scientists whose theoretical reasoning and empirical results are compared to Western counterparts.

  4. Causal Comparative Analysis: Comprehensive Literacy Approach or the Traditional Reading Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuda, Jessica Ann

    2009-01-01

    A comparative analysis study, examining the significance in reading achievement between students in the Comprehensive Literacy Program to students in the Traditional Basal Reading Approach was conducted. Implementation of the Comprehensive Literacy Program was an effort to lessen the achievement gap between proficient and low progressing students.…

  5. The impact of school leadership on school level factors: validation of a causal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.L. Krüger; B. Witziers; P. Sleegers

    2007-01-01

    This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the antecedents and effects of educational leadership, and of the influence of the principal's leadership on intervening and outcome variables. A path analysis was conducted to test and validate a causal model. The results show no direct or

  6. Dropouts and Turnover: The Synthesis and Test of a Causal Model of Student Attrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, John P.

    1980-01-01

    The determinants of student attrition in higher education institutions are investigated using a causal model which synthesized research findings on job turnover and on student attrition. Many male/female differences were found but three surrogate measures for pay were found for both sexes to be related to intent to leave. (Author/LC)

  7. A field theoretic causal model of a Mach-Zehnder Wheeler delayed-choice experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Kaloyerou, P N

    2003-01-01

    We consider a Wheeler delayed-choice experiment based on the Mach-Zehnder Interferometer. Our aim is to provide a detailed causal model based on the quantum field theory of the electromagnetic field. In so doing we avoid the paradox of changing or creating history at the time of measurement.

  8. Theory of Mind and Social Behavior: Causal Models Tested in a Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Jennifer M.; Astington, Janet Wilde

    2000-01-01

    Tested competing causal models concerning the relationship between children's social behaviors and theory of mind in 3- and 4-year-olds tested 3 times over 7 months. Found that false belief performance predicted joint planning and role assignment during pretend play, after taking into account initial performance on joint planning and role…

  9. Exact solutions of a Flat Full Causal Bulk viscous FRW cosmological model through factorization

    OpenAIRE

    Cornejo-Pérez, O.; Belinchón, J. A.

    2012-01-01

    We study the classical flat full causal bulk viscous FRW cosmological model through the factorization method. The method shows that there exists a relationship between the viscosity parameter $s$ and the parameter $\\gamma$ entering the equations of state of the model. Also, the factorization method allows to find some new exact parametric solutions for different values of the viscous parameter $s$. Special attention is given to the well known case $s=1/2$, for which the cosmological model adm...

  10. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED{sub 4}. II: Vacuum polarization tensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bufalo, R., E-mail: rodrigo.bufalo@helsinki.fi [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Pimentel, B.M., E-mail: pimentel@ift.unesp.br [Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Soto, D.E., E-mail: danielsb@ift.unesp.br [Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2014-12-15

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED{sub 4} in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in the literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the Epstein–Glaser causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous term, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from this calculation it follows the same result as those obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind our obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantaneous fermionic propagator term. - Highlights: • We develop the Epstein–Glaser causal approach for light-front field theory. • We evaluate in detail the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED. • We discuss the subtle issues of the Instantaneous part of the fermionic propagator in the light-front. • We evaluate the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED with the Instantaneous fermionic part.

  11. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED4. II: Vacuum polarization tensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED4 in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in the literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the Epstein–Glaser causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous term, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from this calculation it follows the same result as those obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind our obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantaneous fermionic propagator term. - Highlights: • We develop the Epstein–Glaser causal approach for light-front field theory. • We evaluate in detail the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED. • We discuss the subtle issues of the Instantaneous part of the fermionic propagator in the light-front. • We evaluate the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED with the Instantaneous fermionic part

  12. [Representation of relations between television watching and delinquency within the scope of causal analysis models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheungrab, M

    1990-01-01

    The subject of research coucerns causal relationships between variables of consuming home videos and television and different indicators of delinquency ("acceptance of social norms" (NORM-AK), "perceived risk of punishment" (DEL-RISK), "severity of negative consequences" (NEG-VAL), "acceptance of illegitimate means" (ILLEG-M)). Additionally, factors of influence external to media are taken into consideration which are connected with delinquency according to criminologic results, i.e. variables of communication and variables of the family life and the structure of the family. The model is tested by a sample of N = 305 male pupils of a Regensburg vocational school with methods analysing causality ("2-Stage-Least-Square" (2-SLS) and "Latent variables path analysis with partial least squares estimation" (LVPLS)). The 2-SLS-estimates largely confirm the causal relationships supposed in the model. The results are, three significantly positive indirect connections from the preference for violence of home videos to the main indicator of delinquency ILLEG-M (by way of the variables "consumption of home videos" put on the Index, NEG-VAL and DEL-RISK). The direct influence of the preference for violence on television on ILLEG-M is confirmed, whereas the direct path from the popularity of violent video films to ILLEG-M cannot be proved. The LVPLS-results essentially correspond to the relationship shown by 2-SLS; in addition the LVPLS-estimates also confirm direct causal relationships between the latent variables "consumption of violent video films" and "delinquency proneness". PMID:2132917

  13. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  14. Relationship of causal effects in a causal chain and related inference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GENG; Zhi; HE; Yangbo; WANG; Xueli

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationship among the total causal effect and local causal effects in a causal chain and identifiability of causal effects. We show a transmission relationship of causal effects in a causal chain. According to the relationship, we give an approach to eliminating confounding bias through controlling for intermediate variables in a causal chain.

  15. Gun Prevalence, Homicide Rates and Causality: A GMM Approach to Endogeneity Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Kleck, Gary; Kovandzic, Tomislav; Schaffer, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    The positive correlation between gun prevalence and homicide rates has been widely documented. But does this correlation reflect a causal relationship? This study seeks to answer the question of whether more guns cause more crime, and unlike nearly all previous such studies, we properly account for the endogeneity of gun ownership levels. We discuss the three main sources of endogeneity bias - reverse causality (higher crime rates lead people to acquire guns for self-protection), mismeasureme...

  16. A Non-Classical Linear Xenomorph as a Model for Quantum Causal Space

    OpenAIRE

    Raptis, Ioannis

    1999-01-01

    A quantum picture of the causal structure of Minkowski space M is presented. The mathematical model employed to this end is a non-classical version of the classical topos {H} of real quaternion algebras used elsewhere to organize the perceptions of spacetime events of a Boolean observer into M. Certain key properties of this new quantum topos are highlighted by contrast against the corresponding ones of its classical counterpart {H} modelling M and are seen to accord with some key features of...

  17. Overpressures: Causal Mechanisms, Conventional and Hydromechanical Approaches Surpressions : origine, approches conventionnelle et hydromécanique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grauls D.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abnormal fluid pressure regimes are commonly encountered at depth in most sedimentary basins. Relationships between effective vertical stress and porosity have been applied, since 1970 to the Gulf Coast area, to assess the magnitude of overpressures. Positive results have been obtained from seismic and basin-modeling techniques in sand-shale, vertical-stress-dominated tertiary basins, whenever compaction disequilibrium conditions apply. However, overpressures resulting from other and/or additional causes (tectonic stress, hydrocarbon generation, thermal stress, fault-related transfer, hydrofracturing. . . cannot be quantitatively assessed using this approach. A hydromechanical approach is then proposed in addition to conventional methods. At any depth, the upper bound fluid pressure is controlled by in situ conditions related to hydrofracturing or fault reactivation. Fluid-driven fracturing implies an episodically open system, under a close to zerominimum effective stress regime. Sound knowledge of present-day tectonic stress regimes allows a direct estimation of minimum stress evolution. A quantitative fluid pressure assessment at depth is therefore possible, as in undrained or/and compartmented geological systems, pressure regimes, whatever their origin, tend to rapidly reach a value close to the minimum principal stress. Therefore, overpressure assessment will be improved, as this methodology can be applied to various geological settings and situations where present-day overpressures originated from other causal mechanisms, very often combined. However, pressure trends in transition zones are more difficult to assess correctly. Additional research on cap rocks and fault seals is therefore required to improve their predictability. In addition to overpressure assessment, the minimum principal stress concept allows a better understanding of petroleum system, as fault-related hydrocarbon dynamic transfers, hydrofractured domains and cap

  18. Performing Causal Configurations in e-Tourism: a Fuzzy-Set Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugues Seraphin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Search engines are constantly endeavouring to integrate social media mentions in the website ranking process. Search Engine Optimization (SEO principles can be used to impact website ranking, considering various social media channels� capability to drive traffic. Both practitioners and researchers has focused on the impact of social media on SEO, but paid little attention to the influences of social media interactions on organic search results. This study explores the causal configurations between social mention variables (strength, sentiment, passion, reach and the rankings of nine websites dedicated to hotel booking (according to organic search results. The social mention variables embedded into the conceptual model were provided by the real-time social media search and analysis tool (www.socialmention.com, while the rankings websites dedicated to hotel booking were determined after a targeted search on Google. The study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA and the results reveal that social mention variables has complex links with the rankings of the hotel booking websites included into the sample, according to Quine-McCluskey algorithm solution. The findings extend the body of knowledge related to the impact of social media mentions on

  19. The opportune time to invest in residential properties - Engle-Granger cointegration test and Granger causality test approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chee-Yin, Yip; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2014-12-01

    This paper examines using housing supply as proxy to house prices, the causal relationship on house prices among 8 states in Malaysia by applying the Engle-Granger cointegration test and Granger causality test approach. The target states are Perak, Selangor, Penang, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur (WPKL or Kuala Lumpur), Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, Sabah and Sarawak. The primary aim of this study is to estimate how long (in months) house prices in Perak lag behind that of Selangor, Penang and WPKL. We classify the 8 states into two categories - developed and developing states. We use Engle-Granger cointegration test and Granger causality test to examine the long run and short run equilibrium relationship among the two categories.. It is found that the causal relationship is bidirectional in Perak and Sabah, Perak and Selangor while it is unidirectional for Perak and Sarawak, Perak and Penang, Perak and WPKL. The speed of deviation adjustment is about 273%, suggesting that the pricing dynamic of Perak has a 32- month or 2 3/4- year lag behind that of WPKL, Selangor and Penang. Such information will be useful to investors, house buyers and speculators.

  20. CAUSALITY BETWEEN GDP, ENERGY AND COAL CONSUMPTION IN INDIA, 1970-2011: A NON-PARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohin Anhal

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between real GDP on the one hand and final energy and coal consumption on the other in India, for the period from 1970 to 2011. The methodology adopted is the non-parametric bootstrap procedure, which is used to construct the critical values for the hypothesis of causality. The results of the bootstrap tests show that for total energy consumption, there exists no causal relationship in either direction with GDP of India. However, if coal consumption is considered, we find evidence in support of unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to GDP. This clearly has important implications for the Indian economy. The most important implication is that curbing coal consumption in order to reduce carbon emissions would in turn have a limiting effect on economic growth. Our analysis contributes to the literature in three distinct ways. First, this is the first paper to use the bootstrap method to examine the growth-energy connection for the Indian economy. Second, we analyze data for the time period 1970 to 2011, thereby utilizing recently available data that has not been used by others. Finally, in contrast to the recently done studies, we adopt a disaggregated approach for the analysis of the growth-energy nexus by considering not only aggregate energy consumption, but coal consumption as well.

  1. Calibrating the pixel-level Kepler imaging data with a causal data-driven model

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Dun; Hogg, David W; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Astronomical observations are affected by several kinds of noise, each with its own causal source; there is photon noise, stochastic source variability, and residuals coming from imperfect calibration of the detector or telescope. The precision of NASA Kepler photometry for exoplanet science---the most precise photometric measurements of stars ever made---appears to be limited by unknown or untracked variations in spacecraft pointing and temperature, and unmodeled stellar variability. Here we present the Causal Pixel Model (CPM) for Kepler data, a data-driven model intended to capture variability but preserve transit signals. The CPM works at the pixel level so that it can capture very fine-grained information about the variation of the spacecraft. The CPM predicts each target pixel value from a large number of pixels of other stars sharing the instrument variabilities while not containing any information on possible transits in the target star. In addition, we use the target star's future and past (auto-regr...

  2. Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Arshia Amiri; Ulf-G Gerdtham

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961_2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and Inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locatins and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledg...

  3. A new approach in classical electrodynamics to protect principle of causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biswaranjan Dikshit

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In classical electrodynamics, electromagnetic effects are calculated from solution of wave equation formed by combination of four Maxwell’s equations. However, along with retarded solution, this wave equation admits advanced solution in which case the effect happens before the cause. So, to preserve causality in natural events, the retarded solution is intentionally chosen and the advance part is just ignored. But, an equation or method cannot be called fundamental if it admits a wrong result (that violates principle of causality in addition to the correct result. Since it is the Maxwell’s form of equations that gives birth to this acausal advanced potential, we rewrite these equations in a different form using the recent theory of reaction at a distance (Biswaranjan Dikshit, Physics essays, 24(1, 4-9, 2011 so that the process of calculation does not generate any advanced effects. Thus, the long-standing causality problem in electrodynamics is solved.

  4. Neyman’s causal model with stochastic potential outcomes: implications for the completely randomized design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Scosyrev

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In Neyman’s causal model (NCM, each subject participating in a two-arm randomized trial has a pair of potential outcomes – one outcome would be observed under treatment and another under control. In the stochastic version of NCM the two potential outcomes are viewed as possibly non-degenerate random variables with finite expectations and variances. The subject-level treatment effect is the expected outcome under treatment minus that under control, and the average treatment effect is the arithmetic mean of the subject-level effects. In the present paper properties of the ordinary “difference of means” estimator and its associated variance estimator are examined in the completely randomized design with stochastic potential outcomes. Estimation theory is developed under randomization distribution without commitment to any particular probability model for enrollment, because in real trials subjects are not enrolled by a sampling mechanism with known selection probabilities. It is shown that in this theoretical framework, the “difference of means” estimator is asymptotically normal and consistent for the average treatment effect in the study cohort, while its associated variance estimator is conservative, producing confidence intervals with at least nominal asymptotic coverage. The proofs are not trivial because in the randomization framework sample means under treatment and control are correlated random variables. Keywords: Causality; Clinical Trials; Internal Validity; Neyman’s Causal Model; Randomization-Based Inference; Stochastic Potential Outcomes.

  5. From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

  6. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. II: Vacuum Polarization tensor

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED$_{4}$ in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the perturbative causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous terms, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from the calculation it follows the same result as obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind we obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantane...

  7. From animal model to human brain networking: dynamic causal modeling of motivational systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonen, Tal; Admon, Roee; Podlipsky, Ilana; Hendler, Talma

    2012-05-23

    An organism's behavior is sensitive to different reinforcements in the environment. Based on extensive animal literature, the reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) proposes three separate neurobehavioral systems to account for such context-sensitive behavior, affecting the tendency to react to punishment, reward, or goal-conflict stimuli. The translation of animal findings to complex human behavior, however, is far from obvious. To examine whether the neural networks underlying humans' motivational processes are similar to those proposed by the RST model, we conducted a functional MRI study, in which 24 healthy subjects performed an interactive game that engaged the different motivational systems using distinct time periods (states) of punishment, reward, and conflict. Crucially, we found that the different motivational states elicited activations in brain regions that corresponded exactly to the brain systems underlying RST. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling of each motivational system confirmed that the coupling strengths between the key brain regions of each system were enabled selectively by the appropriate motivational state. These results may shed light on the impairments that underlie psychopathologies associated with dysfunctional motivational processes and provide a translational validity for the RST.

  8. From animal model to human brain networking: dynamic causal modeling of motivational systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonen, Tal; Admon, Roee; Podlipsky, Ilana; Hendler, Talma

    2012-05-23

    An organism's behavior is sensitive to different reinforcements in the environment. Based on extensive animal literature, the reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) proposes three separate neurobehavioral systems to account for such context-sensitive behavior, affecting the tendency to react to punishment, reward, or goal-conflict stimuli. The translation of animal findings to complex human behavior, however, is far from obvious. To examine whether the neural networks underlying humans' motivational processes are similar to those proposed by the RST model, we conducted a functional MRI study, in which 24 healthy subjects performed an interactive game that engaged the different motivational systems using distinct time periods (states) of punishment, reward, and conflict. Crucially, we found that the different motivational states elicited activations in brain regions that corresponded exactly to the brain systems underlying RST. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling of each motivational system confirmed that the coupling strengths between the key brain regions of each system were enabled selectively by the appropriate motivational state. These results may shed light on the impairments that underlie psychopathologies associated with dysfunctional motivational processes and provide a translational validity for the RST. PMID:22623666

  9. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  10. Two Optimal Strategies for Active Learning of Causal Models from Interventions

    CERN Document Server

    Hauser, Alain

    2012-01-01

    From observational data alone, a causal DAG is in general only identifiable up to Markov equivalence. Interventional data generally improves identifiability; however, the gain of an intervention strongly depends on the intervention target, i.e., the intervened variables. We present active learning strategies calculating optimal interventions for two different learning goals. The first one is a greedy approach using single-vertex interventions that maximizes the number of edges that can be oriented after each intervention. The second one yields in polynomial time a minimum set of targets of arbitrary size that guarantees full identifiability. This second approach proves a conjecture of Eberhardt (2008) indicating the number of unbounded intervention targets which is sufficient and in the worst case necessary for full identifiability. We compare our two active learning approaches to random interventions in a simulation study.

  11. Performing Causal Configurations in e-Tourism: a Fuzzy-Set Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hugues Seraphin; Adrian Micu; Michele Ambaye; Alexandru Capatina

    2016-01-01

    Search engines are constantly endeavouring to integrate social media mentions in the website ranking process. Search Engine Optimization (SEO) principles can be used to impact website ranking, considering various social media channels� capability to drive traffic. Both practitioners and researchers has focused on the impact of social media on SEO, but paid little attention to the influences of social media interactions on organic search results. This study explores the causal configurations b...

  12. Deconstructing Constructivism: Modeling Causal Relationships Among Constructivist Learning Environment Factors and Student Outcomes in Introductory Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komperda, Regis

    The purpose of this dissertation is to test a model of relationships among factors characterizing aspects of a student-centered constructivist learning environment and student outcomes of satisfaction and academic achievement in introductory undergraduate chemistry courses. Constructivism was chosen as the theoretical foundation for this research because of its widespread use in chemical education research and practice. In a constructivist learning environment the role of the teacher shifts from delivering content towards facilitating active student engagement in activities that encourage individual knowledge construction through discussion and application of content. Constructivist approaches to teaching introductory chemistry courses have been adopted by some instructors as a way to improve student outcomes, but little research has been done on the causal relationships among particular aspects of the learning environment and student outcomes. This makes it difficult for classroom teachers to know which aspects of a constructivist teaching approach are critical to adopt and which may be modified to better suit a particular learning environment while still improving student outcomes. To investigate a model of these relationships, a survey designed to measure student perceptions of three factors characterizing a constructivist learning environment in online courses was adapted for use in face-to-face chemistry courses. These three factors, teaching presence, social presence, and cognitive presence, were measured using a slightly modified version of the Community of Inquiry (CoI) instrument. The student outcomes investigated in this research were satisfaction and academic achievement, as measured by standardized American Chemical Society (ACS) exam scores and course grades. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to statistically model relationships among the three presence factors and student outcome variables for 391 students enrolled in six sections of a

  13. Influence of Resting Venous Blood Volume Fraction on Dynamic Causal Modeling and System Identifiability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhenghui; Ni, Pengyu; Wan, Qun; Zhang, Yan; Shi, Pengcheng; Lin, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Changes in BOLD signals are sensitive to the regional blood content associated with the vasculature, which is known as V0 in hemodynamic models. In previous studies involving dynamic causal modeling (DCM) which embodies the hemodynamic model to invert the functional magnetic resonance imaging signals into neuronal activity, V0 was arbitrarily set to a physiolog-ically plausible value to overcome the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. It is interesting to investigate how the V0 value influences DCM. In this study we addressed this issue by using both synthetic and real experiments. The results show that the ability of DCM analysis to reveal information about brain causality depends critically on the assumed V0 value used in the analysis procedure. The choice of V0 value not only directly affects the strength of system connections, but more importantly also affects the inferences about the network architecture. Our analyses speak to a possible refinement of how the hemody-namic process is parameterized (i.e., by making V0 a free parameter); however, the conditional dependencies induced by a more complex model may create more problems than they solve. Obtaining more realistic V0 information in DCM can improve the identifiability of the system and would provide more reliable inferences about the properties of brain connectivity. PMID:27389074

  14. Connectivity-based neurofeedback: Dynamic causal modeling for real-time fMRI

    OpenAIRE

    Koush, Yury; Rosa, Maria Joao; Robineau, Fabien; Heinen, Klaartje; Rieger, Sebastian Walter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Van De Ville, Dimitri; Scharnowski, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Neurofeedback based on real-time fMRI is an emerging technique that can be used to train voluntary control of brain activity. Such brain training has been shown to lead to behavioral effects that are specific to the functional role of the targeted brain area. However, real-time fMRI-based neurofeedback so far was limited to mainly training localized brain activity within a region of interest. Here, we overcome this limitation by presenting near real-time dynamic causal modeling in order to pr...

  15. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. II: Vacuum Polarization tensor

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2014-01-01

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED$_{4}$ in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this p...

  16. Property and Application of the Causal Graphs of Structure Vector Autoregressive Model%结构向量自回归因果图的性质及应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏岳嵩

    2015-01-01

    文章利用图模型方法分析结构向量自回归模型变量间的因果性问题,构建结构向量自回归因果图,研究该因果图的性质,基于信息论方法建立了因果图结构辨识的三步准则,并用所给方法做了实例分析。%This paper explores how to use graphical modelling approach to analyze the causal relations among variables of structure vector autoregressive model. The causal graphs of structure vector autoregressive model is established and its properties are investigated. A three-step procedure based on information theory criteria is developed to identify the causal structure of the causal graphs.Finally,a case analysis is presented using the propose method.

  17. Darwin's diagram of divergence of taxa as a causal model for the origin of species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzat, Juan L

    2014-03-01

    On the basis that Darwin's theory of evolution encompasses two logically independent processes (common descent and natural selection), the only figure in On the Origin of Species (the Diagram of Divergence of Taxa) is often interpreted as illustrative of only one of these processes: the branching patterns representing common ancestry. Here, I argue that Darwin's Diagram of Divergence of Taxa represents a broad conceptual model of Darwin's theory, illustrating the causal efficacy of natural selection in producing well-defined varieties and ultimately species. The Tree Diagram encompasses the idea that natural selection explains common descent and the origin of organic diversity, thus representing a comprehensive model of Darwin's theory on the origin of species. I describe Darwin's Tree Diagram in relation to his argumentative strategy under the vera causa principle, and suggest that the testing of his theory based on the evidence from the geological record, the geographical distribution of organisms, and the mutual affinities of organic beings can be framed under the hypothetico-deductive method. Darwin's Diagram of Divergence of Taxa therefore represents a broad conceptual model that helps understanding the causal construction of Darwin's theory of evolution, the structure of his argumentative strategy, and the nature of his scientific methodology.

  18. Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G;

    2014-01-01

    are fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select...

  19. How to be causal

    CERN Document Server

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential eqations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature in the sense used here should be obvious to all. In particular, I apply this reasoning to Maxwell's equations, which is an instructive example since their casual properties are sometimes debated.

  20. Effective coping with stroke disability in a community setting: the development of a causal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boynton De Sepulveda, L I; Chang, B

    1994-08-01

    A proposed causal model based upon Lazarus' theory of psychological stress and coping was tested in a sample of 75 persons disabled by stroke. Coping constraints such as demographic and stroke factors were hypothesized to affect resources (perceived availability of social support, perceived effectiveness of social support, social contact), stress appraisal, coping behavior and coping effectiveness. Although the model did not fit the data, several path coefficients within the model were statistically significant. Functional status was positively related to resources and negatively related to the stressor. Resources were negatively related to the stressor and positively related to coping effectiveness. It was noted that the buffering effect of social support was related to the level of disability of the stroke person. Persons with functional disability following stroke also had decreased social contact, perceived less availability of social resources and increased threat to physical well-being, and had reduced coping effectiveness.

  1. Multivariate Autoregressive Modeling and Granger Causality Analysis of Multiple Spike Trains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Krumin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen the emergence of microelectrode arrays and optical methods allowing simultaneous recording of spiking activity from populations of neurons in various parts of the nervous system. The analysis of multiple neural spike train data could benefit significantly from existing methods for multivariate time-series analysis which have proven to be very powerful in the modeling and analysis of continuous neural signals like EEG signals. However, those methods have not generally been well adapted to point processes. Here, we use our recent results on correlation distortions in multivariate Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson spiking neuron models to derive generalized Yule-Walker-type equations for fitting ‘‘hidden’’ Multivariate Autoregressive models. We use this new framework to perform Granger causality analysis in order to extract the directed information flow pattern in networks of simulated spiking neurons. We discuss the relative merits and limitations of the new method.

  2. Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, S.; Sekhar, M.; Berthon, L.; Javeed, Y.; Mazzega, P.

    2012-08-01

    Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India.

  3. Multigraph models for causal quantum gravity and scale dependent spectral dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Giasemidis, Georgios; Zohren, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    We study random walks on ensembles of a specific class of random multigraph graphs associated with theories of causal quantum gravity. In particular, we investigate the spectral dimension of the graph ensemble for recurrent as well as transient walks. We investigate the circumstances in which the spectral dimension and Hausdorff dimension are equal and show that this occurs when rho, the exponent for anomalous behaviour of the resistance to infinity, is zero. The concept of scale dependent spectral dimension in these models is introduced. We apply this notion to a multigraph ensemble with a measure induced by a size biased critical Galton-Watson process which has a scale dependent spectral dimension of two at large scales and one at small scales. We conclude by discussing a specific model related to four dimensional quantum gravity which has a spectral dimension of four at large scales and two at small scales.

  4. Academic achievement among undergraduate nursing students: the development and test of a causal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacko, S B; Huba, M E

    1991-06-01

    This article tested relationships among variables depicted in a causal learning model of academic achievement developed by the authors. The Learning and Study Skills (LASSI), Life Experience Survey (LES), and ASSET test were administered to 134 first-semester nursing students at a 2-year community college. The path analysis supported 11 of the 14 pathways tested. Language ability, reading ability, and self-efficacy were found to be direct effects on academic achievement. When self-efficacy was the criterion, students' language ability, math ability, motivation, and concentration and preparation for class were direct effects. Life stress, motivation, and self-monitoring/use of study strategies were found to be direct effects on students' concentration and preparation for class. In turn, when the ability to self-monitor and use study strategies was the criterion, motivation was the only direct effect. Overall, the model explained 46% of the variance in academic achievement.

  5. Causal modeling of secondary science students' intentions to enroll in physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

    The purpose of this study was to explore the utility of the theory of planned behavior model developed by social psychologists for understanding and predicting the behavioral intentions of secondary science students regarding enrolling in physics. In particular, the study used a three-stage causal model to investigate the links from external variables to behavioral, normative, and control beliefs; from beliefs to attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control; and from attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control to behavioral intentions. The causal modeling method was employed to verify the underlying causes of secondary science students' interest in enrolling physics as predicted in the theory of planned behavior. Data were collected from secondary science students (N = 264) residing in a central Texas city who were enrolled in earth science (8th grade), biology (9th grade), physical science (10th grade), or chemistry (11th grade) courses. Cause-and-effect relationships were analyzed using path analysis to test the direct effects of model variables specified in the theory of planned behavior. Results of this study indicated that students' intention to enroll in a high school physics course was determined by their attitude toward enrollment and their degree of perceived behavioral control. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control were, in turn, formed as a result of specific beliefs that students held about enrolling in physics. Grade level and career goals were found to be instrumental in shaping students' attitude. Immediate family members were identified as major referents in the social support system for enrolling in physics. Course and extracurricular conflicts and the fear of failure were shown to be the primary beliefs obstructing students' perception of control over physics enrollment. Specific recommendations are offered to researchers and practitioners for strengthening secondary school students

  6. Causal universe

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

  7. Revisiting Causality in Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Shojaee, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    Identifying causal relationships is a key premise of scientific research. The growth of observational data in different disciplines along with the availability of machine learning methods offers the possibility of using an empirical approach to identifying potential causal relationships, to deepen our understandings of causal behavior and to build theories accordingly. Conventional methods of causality inference from observational data require a considerable length of time series data to capt...

  8. Identifying abnormal connectivity in patients using Dynamic Causal Modelling of fMRI responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed L Seghier

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Functional imaging studies of brain damaged patients offer a unique opportunity to understand how sensori-motor and cognitive tasks can be carried out when parts of the neural system that support normal performance are no longer available. In addition to knowing which regions a patient activates, we also need to know how these regions interact with one another, and how these inter-regional interactions deviate from normal. Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM offers the opportunity to assess task-dependent interactions within a set of regions. Here we review its use in patients when the question of interest concerns the characterisation of abnormal connectivity for a given pathology. We describe the currently available implementations of DCM for fMRI responses, varying from the deterministic bilinear models with one-state equation to the stochastic nonlinear models with two-state equations. We also highlight the importance of the new Bayesian model selection and averaging tools that allow different plausible models to be compared at the single subject and group level. These procedures allow inferences to be made at different levels of model selection, from features (model families to connectivity parameters. Following a critical review of previous DCM studies that investigated abnormal connectivity we propose a systematic procedure that will ensure more flexibility and efficiency when using DCM in patients. Finally, some practical and methodological issues crucial for interpreting or generalising DCM findings in patients are discussed.

  9. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. I: Free theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles $\\left( k^{+}\\right) ^{-n}$ arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use rigorous mathematical machinery of distributions combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties in the framework of Wightman's formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar, fermionic fields and for t...

  10. Causal and causally separable processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  11. A causal model of post-traumatic stress disorder: disentangling predisposed from acquired neural abnormalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Admon, Roee; Milad, Mohammed R; Hendler, Talma

    2013-07-01

    Discriminating neural abnormalities into the causes versus consequences of psychopathology would enhance the translation of neuroimaging findings into clinical practice. By regarding the traumatic encounter as a reference point for disease onset, neuroimaging studies of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can potentially allocate PTSD neural abnormalities to either predisposing (pre-exposure) or acquired (post-exposure) factors. Based on novel research strategies in PTSD neuroimaging, including genetic, environmental, twin, and prospective studies, we provide a causal model that accounts for neural abnormalities in PTSD, and outline its clinical implications. Current data suggest that abnormalities within the amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex represent predisposing risk factors for developing PTSD, whereas dysfunctional hippocampal-ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) interactions may become evident only after having developed the disorder. PMID:23768722

  12. Causal mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method......The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method...

  13. The Temporal Logic of Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Kleinberg, Samantha

    2012-01-01

    Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine from just the numerical time course data alone what is coordinating the visible processes, to separate the underlying prima facie causes into genuine and spurious causes and to do so with a feasible computational complexity. For this purpose, we have been developing a novel algorithm based on a framework that combines notions of causality in philosophy with algorithmic approaches built on model checking and statistical techniques for multiple hypotheses testing. The causal relationships are described in terms of temporal logic formulae, reframing the inference problem in terms of model checking. The logic used, PCTL, allows description of both the time between cause and effect and the probability of this relationship being observed. We show that equipped with these causal f...

  14. Dynamic causal modelling of EEG and fMRI to characterize network architectures in a simple motor task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bönstrup, Marlene; Schulz, Robert; Feldheim, Jan; Hummel, Friedhelm C; Gerloff, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) has extended the understanding of brain network dynamics in a variety of functional systems. In the motor system, DCM studies based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) or on magneto-/electroencephalography (M/EEG) have demonstrated movement-related causal information flow from secondary to primary motor areas and have provided evidence for nonlinear cross-frequency interactions among motor areas. The present study sought to investigate to what extent fMRI- and EEG-based DCM might provide complementary and synergistic insights into neuronal network dynamics. Both modalities share principal similarities in the formulation of the DCM. Thus, we hypothesized that DCM based on induced EEG responses (DCM-IR) and on fMRI would reveal congruent task-dependent network dynamics. Brain electrical (63-channel surface EEG) and Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) signals were recorded in separate sessions from 14 healthy participants performing simple isometric right and left hand grips. DCM-IR and DCM-fMRI were used to estimate coupling parameters modulated by right and left hand grips within a core motor network of six regions comprising bilateral primary motor cortex (M1), ventral premotor cortex (PMv) and supplementary motor area (SMA). We found that DCM-fMRI and DCM-IR similarly revealed significant grip-related increases in facilitatory coupling between SMA and M1 contralateral to the active hand. A grip-dependent interhemispheric reciprocal inhibition between M1 bilaterally was only revealed by DCM-fMRI but not by DCM-IR. Frequency-resolved coupling analysis showed that the information flow from contralateral SMA to M1 was predominantly a linear alpha-to-alpha (9-13Hz) interaction. We also detected some cross-frequency coupling from SMA to contralateral M1, i.e., between lower beta (14-21Hz) at the SMA and higher beta (22-30Hz) at M1 during right hand grip and between alpha (9-13Hz) at SMA and lower beta (14-21Hz) at M1

  15. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED{sub 4}. I: Free theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bufalo, R., E-mail: rodrigobufalo@gmail.com; Pimentel, B.M., E-mail: pimentel@ift.unesp.br; Soto, D.E., E-mail: danielsb@ift.unesp.br

    2014-12-15

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of the axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles (k{sup +}){sup −n} arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have the correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use of rigorous mathematical machinery of the distributional theory combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how the analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties within the framework of Wightman’s formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar and fermionic fields, as well as for the dynamical components of the electromagnetic field. In conclusion, we introduce the Epstein–Glaser causal method in order to have a mathematical rigorous description of the free propagators of the theory, allowing us to discuss a general treatment for propagators of the type (k{sup +}){sup −n}. Afterwards, we show that at given conditions our results reproduce known prescriptions in the literature. - Highlights: • We develop the analytic representation for propagators in Wightman’s framework. • We make use of the analytic representation to obtain equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front. • We derive the free Feynman propagators for the light-front quantum electrodynamics in the Epstein–Glaser approach. • We determine a general expression for the propagator associated to the light-cone poles (k{sup +}){sup −n} in the causal approach.

  16. Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-01-01

    In the last 2 decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that one can classify indicators into 2 categories: effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. We argue that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and 3 types of…

  17. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari;

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological......This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied...... implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets. The...

  18. Dynamic causal models and physiological inference: a validation study using isoflurane anaesthesia in rodents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalyn J Moran

    Full Text Available Generative models of neuroimaging and electrophysiological data present new opportunities for accessing hidden or latent brain states. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM uses Bayesian model inversion and selection to infer the synaptic mechanisms underlying empirically observed brain responses. DCM for electrophysiological data, in particular, aims to estimate the relative strength of synaptic transmission at different cell types and via specific neurotransmitters. Here, we report a DCM validation study concerning inference on excitatory and inhibitory synaptic transmission, using different doses of a volatile anaesthetic agent (isoflurane to parametrically modify excitatory and inhibitory synaptic processing while recording local field potentials (LFPs from primary auditory cortex (A1 and the posterior auditory field (PAF in the auditory belt region in rodents. We test whether DCM can infer, from the LFP measurements, the expected drug-induced changes in synaptic transmission mediated via fast ionotropic receptors; i.e., excitatory (glutamatergic AMPA and inhibitory GABA(A receptors. Cross- and auto-spectra from the two regions were used to optimise three DCMs based on biologically plausible neural mass models and specific network architectures. Consistent with known extrinsic connectivity patterns in sensory hierarchies, we found that a model comprising forward connections from A1 to PAF and backward connections from PAF to A1 outperformed a model with forward connections from PAF to A1 and backward connections from A1 to PAF and a model with reciprocal lateral connections. The parameter estimates from the most plausible model indicated that the amplitude of fast glutamatergic excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs and inhibitory postsynaptic potentials (IPSPs behaved as predicted by previous neurophysiological studies. Specifically, with increasing levels of anaesthesia, glutamatergic EPSPs decreased linearly, whereas fast GABAergic IPSPs

  19. Dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked potentials in the rubber hand illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeller, Daniel; Friston, Karl J; Classen, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between - and within - sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand ("REAL"), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible ("CONGRUENT") or implausible ("INCONGRUENT") position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience. PMID:27241481

  20. Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

    2016-01-01

    The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

  1. The direction of causality between exports and firm performance: microeconomic evidence from Croatia using the matching approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miljana Valdec

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the literature by using propensity score matching to test for causal effects of starting to export on firm performance in Croatian manufacturing firm-level data. The results confirm that exporters have characteristics superior to those of non-exporters. In the main sample specification there is pervasive evidence of self-selection into export markets, meaning that firms are successful years before they become exporters. Using multiple firm performance indicators, panel and cross section data models together with various sample specifications there is scant evidence on learning-by-exporting which holds true only in a few cases. On the other hand, higher sales growth is found to be a more conclusive distinguishing characteristic of new exporters. As in similar studies, we find that a part of the results depends on the number of export starters in the estimation sample.

  2. Taking Emergence Seriously: The Centrality of Circular Causality for Dynamic Systems Approaches to Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witherington, David C.

    2011-01-01

    The dynamic systems (DS) approach has emerged as an influential and potentially unifying metatheory for developmental science. Its central platform--the argument against design--suggests that structure spontaneously and without prescription emerges through self-organization. In one of the most prominent accounts of DS, Thelen and her colleagues…

  3. Dynamic causal modelling of electrographic seizure activity using Bayesian belief updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooray, Gerald K; Sengupta, Biswa; Douglas, Pamela K; Friston, Karl

    2016-01-15

    Seizure activity in EEG recordings can persist for hours with seizure dynamics changing rapidly over time and space. To characterise the spatiotemporal evolution of seizure activity, large data sets often need to be analysed. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) can be used to estimate the synaptic drivers of cortical dynamics during a seizure; however, the requisite (Bayesian) inversion procedure is computationally expensive. In this note, we describe a straightforward procedure, within the DCM framework, that provides efficient inversion of seizure activity measured with non-invasive and invasive physiological recordings; namely, EEG/ECoG. We describe the theoretical background behind a Bayesian belief updating scheme for DCM. The scheme is tested on simulated and empirical seizure activity (recorded both invasively and non-invasively) and compared with standard Bayesian inversion. We show that the Bayesian belief updating scheme provides similar estimates of time-varying synaptic parameters, compared to standard schemes, indicating no significant qualitative change in accuracy. The difference in variance explained was small (less than 5%). The updating method was substantially more efficient, taking approximately 5-10min compared to approximately 1-2h. Moreover, the setup of the model under the updating scheme allows for a clear specification of how neuronal variables fluctuate over separable timescales. This method now allows us to investigate the effect of fast (neuronal) activity on slow fluctuations in (synaptic) parameters, paving a way forward to understand how seizure activity is generated.

  4. Infertile Individuals’ Marital Relationship Status, Happiness, and Mental Health: A Causal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Habiballah Ahmadi Forooshany

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study examined the causal model of relation between marital relationship status, happiness, and mental health in infertile individuals. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive study, 155 subjects (men: 52 and women: 78, who had been visited in one of the infertility Centers, voluntarily participated in a self-evaluation. Golombok Rust Inventory of Marital Status, Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, and General Health Questionnaire were used as instruments of the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS17 and Amos 5 software using descriptive statistics, independent sample t test, and path analysis. Results: Disregarding the gender factor, marital relationship status was directly related to happiness (p<0.05 and happiness was directly related to mental health, (p<0.05. Also, indirect relation between marital relationship status and mental health was significant (p<0.05. These results were confirmed in women participants but in men participants only the direct relation between happiness and mental health was significant (p<0.05. Conclusion: Based on goodness of model fit in fitness indexes, happiness had a mediator role in relation between marital relationship status and mental health in infertile individuals disregarding the gender factor. Also, considering the gender factor, only in infertile women, marital relationship status can directly and indirectly affect happiness and mental health.

  5. Causal relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan: a multivariate approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hazuki Ishida

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores whether Japanese economy can continue to grow without extensive dependence on fossil fuels. The paper conducts time series analysis using a multivariate model of fossil fuels, non-fossil energy, labor, stock and GDP to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan. The results of cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among the variables. Using a vector error-correction model, the study reveals bidirectional causalit...

  6. On modeling HIV and T cells in vivo: assessing causal estimators in vaccine trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W David Wick

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The first efficacy trials--named STEP--of a T cell vaccine against HIV/AIDS began in 2004. The unprecedented structure of these trials raised new modeling and statistical challenges. Is it plausible that memory T cells, as opposed to antibodies, can actually prevent infection? If they fail at prevention, to what extent can they ameliorate disease? And how do we estimate efficacy in a vaccine trial with two primary endpoints, one traditional, one entirely novel (viral load after infection, and where the latter may be influenced by selection bias due to the former? In preparation for the STEP trials, biostatisticians developed novel techniques for estimating a causal effect of a vaccine on viral load, while accounting for post-randomization selection bias. But these techniques have not been tested in biologically plausible scenarios. We introduce new stochastic models of T cell and HIV kinetics, making use of new estimates of the rate that cytotoxic T lymphocytes--CTLs; the so-called killer T cells--can kill HIV-infected cells. Based on these models, we make the surprising discovery that it is not entirely implausible that HIV-specific CTLs might prevent infection--as the designers explicitly acknowledged when they chose the endpoints of the STEP trials. By simulating thousands of trials, we demonstrate that the new statistical methods can correctly identify an efficacious vaccine, while protecting against a false conclusion that the vaccine exacerbates disease. In addition to uncovering a surprising immunological scenario, our results illustrate the utility of mechanistic modeling in biostatistics.

  7. Revisiting Causality in Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Shojaee, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    Identifying causal relationships is a key premise of scientific research. The growth of observational data in different disciplines along with the availability of machine learning methods offers the possibility of using an empirical approach to identifying potential causal relationships, to deepen our understandings of causal behavior and to build theories accordingly. Conventional methods of causality inference from observational data require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause-effect relationship. We find that potential causal relationships can be inferred from the composition of one step transition rates to and from an event. Also known as Markov chain, one step transition rates are a commonly available resource in different scientific disciplines. Here we introduce a simple, effective and computationally efficient method that we termed 'Causality Inference using Composition of Transitions CICT' to reveal causal structure with high accuracy. We characterize the differences in causes,...

  8. Correlation Measure Equivalence in Dynamic Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Gyongyosi, Laszlo

    2016-01-01

    We prove an equivalence transformation between the correlation measure functions of the causally-unbiased quantum gravity space and the causally-biased standard space. The theory of quantum gravity fuses the dynamic (nonfixed) causal structure of general relativity and the quantum uncertainty of quantum mechanics. In a quantum gravity space, the events are causally nonseparable and all time bias vanishes, which makes it no possible to use the standard causally-biased entropy and the correlation measure functions. Since a corrected causally-unbiased entropy function leads to an undefined, obscure mathematical structure, in our approach the correction is made in the data representation of the causally-unbiased space. We prove that the standard causally-biased entropy function with a data correction can be used to identify correlations in dynamic causal structures. As a corollary, all mathematical properties of the causally-biased correlation measure functions are preserved in the causally-unbiased space. The eq...

  9. You Can't Get Through Szekeres Wormholes - or - Regularity, Topology and Causality in Quasi-Spherical Szekeres Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hellaby, C; Hellaby, Charles; Krasinski, Andrzej

    2002-01-01

    The spherically symmetric dust model of Lemaitre-Tolman can describe wormholes, but the causal communication between the two asymptotic regions through the neck is even less than in the vacuum (Schwarzschild-Kruskal-Szekeres) case. We investigate the anisotropic generalisation of the wormhole topology in the Szekeres model. The function E(r, p, q) describes the deviation from spherical symmetry if \\partial_r E \

  10. Dynamic causal modelling of eye movements during pursuit: Confirming precision-encoding in V1 using MEG

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, R. A.; Bauer, M.; Pinotsis, D; Friston, K J

    2016-01-01

    This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories a...

  11. Reasoning the causality of city sprawl, traffic congestion, and green land disappearance in Taiwan using the CLD model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mei-Chih; Chang, Kaowen

    2014-11-01

    Many city governments choose to supply more developable land and transportation infrastructure with the hope of attracting people and businesses to their cities. However, like those in Taiwan, major cities worldwide suffer from traffic congestion. This study applies the system thinking logic of the causal loops diagram (CLD) model in the System Dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the issue of traffic congestion and other issues related to roads and land development in Taiwan's cities. Comparing the characteristics of development trends with yearbook data for 2002 to 2013 for all of Taiwan's cities, this study explores the developing phenomenon of unlimited city sprawl and identifies the cause and effect relationships in the characteristics of development trends in traffic congestion, high-density population aggregation in cities, land development, and green land disappearance resulting from city sprawl. This study provides conclusions for Taiwan's cities' sustainability and development (S&D). When developing S&D policies, during decision making processes concerning city planning and land use management, governments should think with a holistic view of carrying capacity with the assistance of system thinking to clarify the prejudices in favor of the unlimited developing phenomena resulting from city sprawl. PMID:25383609

  12. Causal approach for the electron-positron scattering in Generalized Quantum Electrodynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study the generalized electrodynamics contribution for the electron-positron scattering process, $e^{-}e^{+}\\rightarrow e^{-}e^{+}$, the Bhabha scattering. Within the framework of the standard model, for energies larger when compared to the electron mass, we calculate the cross section expression for the scattering process. This quantity is usually calculated in the framework of the Maxwell electrodynamics and, by phenomenological reasons, corrected by a cut-off parameter. On...

  13. Causal spin foams

    CERN Document Server

    Immirzi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    I discuss how to impose causality on spin-foam models, separating forward and backward propagation, turning a given triangulation to a 'causal set', and giving asymptotically the exponential of the Regge action, not a cosine. I show the equivalence of the prescriptions which have been proposed to achieve this. Essential to the argument is the closure condition for the 4-simplices, all made of space-like tetrahedra.

  14. Silent Expectations: Dynamic Causal Modeling of Cortical Prediction and Attention to Sounds That Weren't

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noreika, Valdas; Gueorguiev, David; Shtyrov, Yury; Bekinschtein, Tristan A.; Henson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that human perception is realized by a hierarchy of neural processes in which predictions sent backward from higher levels result in prediction errors that are fed forward from lower levels, to update the current model of the environment. Moreover, the precision of prediction errors is thought to be modulated by attention. Much of this evidence comes from paradigms in which a stimulus differs from that predicted by the recent history of other stimuli (generating a so-called “mismatch response”). There is less evidence from situations where a prediction is not fulfilled by any sensory input (an “omission” response). This situation arguably provides a more direct measure of “top-down” predictions in the absence of confounding “bottom-up” input. We applied Dynamic Causal Modeling of evoked electromagnetic responses recorded by EEG and MEG to an auditory paradigm in which we factorially crossed the presence versus absence of “bottom-up” stimuli with the presence versus absence of “top-down” attention. Model comparison revealed that both mismatch and omission responses were mediated by increased forward and backward connections, differing primarily in the driving input. In both responses, modeling results suggested that the presence of attention selectively modulated backward “prediction” connections. Our results provide new model-driven evidence of the pure top-down prediction signal posited in theories of hierarchical perception, and highlight the role of attentional precision in strengthening this prediction. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Human auditory perception is thought to be realized by a network of neurons that maintain a model of and predict future stimuli. Much of the evidence for this comes from experiments where a stimulus unexpectedly differs from previous ones, which generates a well-known “mismatch response.” But what happens when a stimulus is unexpectedly omitted altogether? By measuring the brain

  15. An integrative systems genetics approach reveals potential causal genes and pathways related to obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kogelman, Lisette; Zhernakova, Daria V.; Westra, Harm-Jan;

    2015-01-01

    expression analysis was performed using the Obesity Index as a continuous variable in a linear model. eQTL mapping was then performed to integrate 60 K porcine SNP chip data with the RNA sequencing data. Results were restricted based on genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms, detected...... polymorphisms to detect obesity-related genes and pathways. Building a co-expression network using eQTLs resulted in the detection of a module strongly associated with lipid pathways. Furthermore, we detected several obesity candidate genes, for example, ENPP1, CTSL, and ABHD12B. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge......BACKGROUND: Obesity is a multi-factorial health problem in which genetic factors play an important role. Limited results have been obtained in single-gene studies using either genomic or transcriptomic data. RNA sequencing technology has shown its potential in gaining accurate knowledge about...

  16. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  17. A structural equation model of soil metal bioavailability to earthworms: confronting causal theory and observations using a laboratory exposure to field-contaminated soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumelle, Léa; Vile, Denis; Lamy, Isabelle; Vandenbulcke, Franck; Gimbert, Frédéric; Hedde, Mickaël

    2016-11-01

    Structural equation models (SEM) are increasingly used in ecology as multivariate analysis that can represent theoretical variables and address complex sets of hypotheses. Here we demonstrate the interest of SEM in ecotoxicology, more precisely to test the three-step concept of metal bioavailability to earthworms. The SEM modeled the three-step causal chain between environmental availability, environmental bioavailability and toxicological bioavailability. In the model, each step is an unmeasured (latent) variable reflected by several observed variables. In an exposure experiment designed specifically to test this SEM for Cd, Pb and Zn, Aporrectodea caliginosa was exposed to 31 agricultural field-contaminated soils. Chemical and biological measurements used included CaC12-extractable metal concentrations in soils, free ion concentration in soil solution as predicted by a geochemical model, dissolved metal concentration as predicted by a semi-mechanistic model, internal metal concentrations in total earthworms and in subcellular fractions, and several biomarkers. The observations verified the causal definition of Cd and Pb bioavailability in the SEM, but not for Zn. Several indicators consistently reflected the hypothetical causal definition and could thus be pertinent measurements of Cd and Pb bioavailability to earthworm in field-contaminated soils. SEM highlights that the metals present in the soil solution and easily extractable are not the main source of available metals for earthworms. This study further highlights SEM as a powerful tool that can handle natural ecosystem complexity, thus participating to the paradigm change in ecotoxicology from a bottom-up to a top-down approach. PMID:27378153

  18. Rent Seeking and Group Interest on Petroleum Revenue in the Nigerian Economy: a Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.N. Ogbonna

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examines rent seeking and group interest on petroleum income and the effect on the Nigerian economy. To achieve the objective of this paper, relevant secondary and primary data were obtained from published scholar works and questionnaires and relevant statistical models were used for analysis. The study reveals that rent seeking and group interest is a fundamental problem affecting the socio-economic and political development of Nigeria with impunity by the political class, the mafia, militants, Boko Haram and oil cabals in order to share in the resource pie as a result of the huge petroleum income accruable to the nation. It does not only penalize or disrupt productive activities, distorts the entire economy and hinders economic growth where significant percent of public funds and oil revenue are diverted into their personal accounts and private pockets. On the basis of this result, the paper concludes that for the huge amount of petroleum income in Nigeria to improve the living standards of the people, the citizens must show a high level of ethical behavior of integrity, honesty and accountability for the level of massive corruption in the country to be minimized for the citizens to benefit from the huge petroleum income in Nigeria.

  19. Causality Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Do Minh

    2001-01-01

    We advance a famous principle - causality principle - but under a new view. This principle is a principium automatically leading to most fundamental laws of the nature. It is the inner origin of variation, rules evolutionary processes of things, and the answer of the quest for ultimate theories of the Universe.

  20. Inhibitory behavioral control: A stochastic dynamic causal modeling study comparing cocaine dependent subjects and controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangsuo Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cocaine dependence is associated with increased impulsivity in humans. Both cocaine dependence and impulsive behavior are under the regulatory control of cortico-striatal networks. One behavioral laboratory measure of impulsivity is response inhibition (ability to withhold a prepotent response in which altered patterns of regional brain activation during executive tasks in service of normal performance are frequently found in cocaine dependent (CD subjects studied with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. However, little is known about aberrations in specific directional neuronal connectivity in CD subjects. The present study employed fMRI-based dynamic causal modeling (DCM to study the effective (directional neuronal connectivity associated with response inhibition in CD subjects, elicited under performance of a Go/NoGo task with two levels of NoGo difficulty (Easy and Hard. The performance on the Go/NoGo task was not significantly different between CD subjects and controls. The DCM analysis revealed that prefrontal–striatal connectivity was modulated (influenced during the NoGo conditions for both groups. The effective connectivity from left (L anterior cingulate cortex (ACC to L caudate was similarly modulated during the Easy NoGo condition for both groups. During the Hard NoGo condition in controls, the effective connectivity from right (R dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC to L caudate became more positive, and the effective connectivity from R ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC to L caudate became more negative. In CD subjects, the effective connectivity from L ACC to L caudate became more negative during the Hard NoGo conditions. These results indicate that during Hard NoGo trials in CD subjects, the ACC rather than DLPFC or VLPFC influenced caudate during response inhibition.

  1. Aging into perceptual control: A Dynamic Causal Modeling for fMRI study of bistable perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan eDowlati

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Aging is accompanied by stereotyped changes in functional brain activations, for example a cortical shift in activity patterns from posterior to anterior regions is one hallmark revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI of aging cognition. Whether these neuronal effects of aging could potentially contribute to an amelioration of or resistance to the cognitive symptoms associated with psychopathology remains to be explored. We used a visual illusion paradigm to address whether aging affects the cortical control of perceptual beliefs and biases. Our aim was to understand the effective connectivity associated with volitional control of ambiguous visual stimuli and to test whether greater top-down control of early visual networks emerged with advancing age. Using a bias training paradigm for ambiguous images we found that older participants (n = 16 resisted experimenter-induced visual bias compared to a younger cohort (n = 14 and that this resistance was associated with greater activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices. By applying Dynamic Causal Models for fMRI we uncovered a selective recruitment of top-down connections from the middle temporal to lingual gyrus by the older cohort during the perceptual switch decision following bias training. In contrast, our younger cohort did not exhibit any consistent connectivity effects but instead showed a loss of driving inputs to orbitofrontal sources following training. These findings suggest that perceptual beliefs are more readily controlled by top-down strategies in older adults and introduce age-dependent neural mechanisms that may be important for understanding aberrant belief states associated with psychopathology.

  2. Altered retrieval of melodic information in congenital amusia: Insights from Dynamic Causal Modeling of MEG data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eAlbouy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder that primarily manifests as a difficulty in the perception and memory of pitch-based materials, including music. Recent findings have shown that the amusic brain exhibits altered functioning of a fronto-temporal network during pitch perception and memory. Within this network, during the encoding of melodies, a decreased right backward frontal-to-temporal connectivity was reported in amusia, along with an abnormal connectivity within and between auditory cortices. The present study investigated whether connectivity patterns between these regions were affected during the retrieval of melodies. Amusics and controls had to indicate whether sequences of six tones that were presented in pairs were the same or different. When melodies were different only one tone changed in the second melody. Brain responses to the changed tone in Different trials and to its equivalent (original tone in Same trials were compared between groups using Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. DCM results confirmed that congenital amusia is characterized by an altered effective connectivity within and between the two auditory cortices during sound processing. Furthermore, right temporal-to-frontal message passing was altered in comparison to controls, with an increase in Same trials and a decrease in Different trials. An additional analysis in control participants emphasized that the detection of an unexpected event in the typically functioning brain is supported by right fronto-temporal connections. The results can be interpreted in a predictive coding framework as reflecting an abnormal prediction error sent by temporal auditory regions towards frontal areas in the amusic brain.

  3. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  4. On the estimation of causality in a bivariate dynamic probit model on panel data with Stata software. A technical review

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Delattre; Richard Moussa

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess causality between binary economic outcomes, we consider the estimation of a bivariate dynamic probit model on panel data that has the particulary to account the initial conditions of the dynamic process. Due to the untractable form of the likelihood function that is a two dimensions integral, we use an approximation method: the adaptative Gauss-Hermite quadrature method as proposed by Liu and Pierce (1994). For the accuracy of the method and to reduce computing time, we der...

  5. A causal model to evaluate the influence of consumer's perceptions of online shopping on their shopping behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Asakawa, Masami; Okano, Masao

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the factors influencing consumers' perception of online shopping and developed a causal model that explains how this perception affects their online-shopping behavior. We administered a questionnaire survey to 297 college students. By utilizing the answers to 13 questions pertaining to consumer perceptions, we conducted a factor analysis that identified the following three factors: "convenience", "anxiety regarding security" and "poor navigation". On the basis of this resu...

  6. Effective Connectivity within the Default Mode Network: Dynamic Causal Modeling of Resting-State fMRI Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharaev, Maksim G; Zavyalova, Viktoria V; Ushakov, Vadim L; Kartashov, Sergey I; Velichkovsky, Boris M

    2016-01-01

    The Default Mode Network (DMN) is a brain system that mediates internal modes of cognitive activity, showing higher neural activation when one is at rest. Nowadays, there is a lot of interest in assessing functional interactions between its key regions, but in the majority of studies only association of Blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) activation patterns is measured, so it is impossible to identify causal influences. There are some studies of causal interactions (i.e., effective connectivity), however often with inconsistent results. The aim of the current work is to find a stable pattern of connectivity between four DMN key regions: the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), left and right intraparietal cortex (LIPC and RIPC). For this purpose functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from 30 healthy subjects (1000 time points from each one) was acquired and spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM) on a resting-state fMRI data was performed. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Discrete Cosine Set at the low frequency band of 0.0078-0.1 Hz. The best model at the group level is the one where connections from both bilateral IPC to mPFC and PCC are significant and symmetrical in strength (p works on effective connectivity within the DMN as well as provide new insights on internal DMN relationships and brain's functioning at resting state.

  7. Dynamic panel data models and causality : Applications to labor supply, health and insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michaud, P.C.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main findings concerns the importance of common persistent factors, or unobserved traits of respondents, in order to study dynamic relationships between two variables of interest using panel data. The ¿hand of the past¿ can reinforce existent causal relationships, or blur their effect, po

  8. A Program for Standard Errors of Indirect Effects in Recursive Causal Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfle, Lee M.; Ethington, Corinna A.

    In his early exposition of path analysis, Duncan (1966) noted that the method "provides a calculus for indirect effects." Despite the interest in indirect causal effects, most users treat them as if they are population parameters and do not test whether they are statistically significant. Sobel (1982) has recently derived the asymptotic…

  9. HEDR modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

  10. A Granger causality measure for point process models of ensemble neural spiking activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanggyun Kim

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The ability to identify directional interactions that occur among multiple neurons in the brain is crucial to an understanding of how groups of neurons cooperate in order to generate specific brain functions. However, an optimal method of assessing these interactions has not been established. Granger causality has proven to be an effective method for the analysis of the directional interactions between multiple sets of continuous-valued data, but cannot be applied to neural spike train recordings due to their discrete nature. This paper proposes a point process framework that enables Granger causality to be applied to point process data such as neural spike trains. The proposed framework uses the point process likelihood function to relate a neuron's spiking probability to possible covariates, such as its own spiking history and the concurrent activity of simultaneously recorded neurons. Granger causality is assessed based on the relative reduction of the point process likelihood of one neuron obtained excluding one of its covariates compared to the likelihood obtained using all of its covariates. The method was tested on simulated data, and then applied to neural activity recorded from the primary motor cortex (MI of a Felis catus subject. The interactions present in the simulated data were predicted with a high degree of accuracy, and when applied to the real neural data, the proposed method identified causal relationships between many of the recorded neurons. This paper proposes a novel method that successfully applies Granger causality to point process data, and has the potential to provide unique physiological insights when applied to neural spike trains.

  11. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect.

  12. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  13. Modeling Causal Relationship Between Brain Regions Within the Drug-Cue Processing Network in Chronic Cocaine Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Suchismita; Haney, Margaret; Hanson, Catherine; Biswal, Bharat; Hanson, Stephen José

    2015-12-01

    The cues associated with drugs of abuse have an essential role in perpetuating problematic use, yet effective connectivity or the causal interaction between brain regions mediating the processing of drug cues has not been defined. The aim of this fMRI study was to model the causal interaction between brain regions within the drug-cue processing network in chronic cocaine smokers and matched control participants during a cocaine-cue exposure task. Specifically, cocaine-smoking (15M; 5F) and healthy control (13M; 4F) participants viewed cocaine and neutral cues while in the scanner (a Siemens 3 T magnet). We examined whole brain activation, including activation related to drug-cue processing. Time series data extracted from ROIs determined through our General Linear Model (GLM) analysis and prior publications were used as input to IMaGES, a computationally powerful Bayesian search algorithm. During cocaine-cue exposure, cocaine users showed a particular feed-forward effective connectivity pattern between the ROIs of the drug-cue processing network (amygdala → hippocampus → dorsal striatum → insula → medial frontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex) that was not present when the controls viewed the cocaine cues. Cocaine craving ratings positively correlated with the strength of the causal influence of the insula on the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in cocaine users. This study is the first demonstration of a causal interaction between ROIs within the drug-cue processing network in cocaine users. This study provides insight into the mechanism underlying continued substance use and has implications for monitoring treatment response.

  14. Modeling Causal Relationship Between Brain Regions Within the Drug-Cue Processing Network in Chronic Cocaine Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Suchismita; Haney, Margaret; Hanson, Catherine; Biswal, Bharat; Hanson, Stephen José

    2015-12-01

    The cues associated with drugs of abuse have an essential role in perpetuating problematic use, yet effective connectivity or the causal interaction between brain regions mediating the processing of drug cues has not been defined. The aim of this fMRI study was to model the causal interaction between brain regions within the drug-cue processing network in chronic cocaine smokers and matched control participants during a cocaine-cue exposure task. Specifically, cocaine-smoking (15M; 5F) and healthy control (13M; 4F) participants viewed cocaine and neutral cues while in the scanner (a Siemens 3 T magnet). We examined whole brain activation, including activation related to drug-cue processing. Time series data extracted from ROIs determined through our General Linear Model (GLM) analysis and prior publications were used as input to IMaGES, a computationally powerful Bayesian search algorithm. During cocaine-cue exposure, cocaine users showed a particular feed-forward effective connectivity pattern between the ROIs of the drug-cue processing network (amygdala → hippocampus → dorsal striatum → insula → medial frontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex) that was not present when the controls viewed the cocaine cues. Cocaine craving ratings positively correlated with the strength of the causal influence of the insula on the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in cocaine users. This study is the first demonstration of a causal interaction between ROIs within the drug-cue processing network in cocaine users. This study provides insight into the mechanism underlying continued substance use and has implications for monitoring treatment response. PMID:26038158

  15. Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah H Leslie

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+ and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7% were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9% increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an

  16. On the Axioms of Causal Set Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dribus, Benjamin F

    2013-01-01

    This paper offers suggested improvements to the causal sets program in discrete gravity, which treats spacetime geometry as an emergent manifestation of causal structure at the fundamental scale. This viewpoint, which I refer to as the causal metric hypothesis, is summarized by Rafael Sorkin's phrase, "order plus number equals geometry." Proposed improvements include recognition of a generally nontransitive causal relation more fundamental than the causal order, an improved local picture of causal structure, development and use of relation space methods, and a new background-independent version of the histories approach to quantum theory. Besides causal set theory, \\`a la Bombelli, Lee, Meyer, and Sorkin, this effort draws on Isham's topos-theoretic framework for physics, Sorkin's quantum measure theory, Finkelstein's causal nets, and Grothendieck's structural principles. This approach circumvents undesirable structural features in causal set theory, such as the permeability of maximal antichains, studied by ...

  17. An environmental impact causal model for improving the environmental performance of construction processes

    OpenAIRE

    Fuertes Casals, Alba; Casals Casanova, Miquel; Gangolells Solanellas, Marta; Forcada Matheu, Núria; Macarulla Martí, Marcel; Roca Ramon, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Despite the increasing efforts made by the construction sector to reduce the environmental impact of their processes, construction sites are still a major source of pollution and adverse impacts on the environment. This paper aims to improve the understanding of construction-related environmental impacts by identifying on-site causal factors and associated immediate circumstances during construc- tion processes for residential building projects. Based on the literature and focus g...

  18. Assimetria causal: um estudo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Túlio Aguiar

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Neste artigo, examinamos o aspecto assimétrico da relação causal, confrontando-o com o ponto de vista humiano e neo-humiano. Seguindo Hausman e Ehring, favorecemos uma abordagem situacional para a assimetria causal. Nós exploramos a análise do famoso exemplo do mastro (Flagpole, esclarecendo as conexões entre causação e explicação. Nosso diagnóstico geral é que a tradição neo-humiana supõe, equivocadamente, que as relações nômicas, com exceção de pequenos detalhes, exaurem as relações causais.This paper examines the asymmetrical aspect of causal relation, confronting it to Humean and Neo-Humean's view. Following Hausman and Ehring, we favor a situational approach to causal asymmetry. We explore the Hausman's analysis of flagpole's example, clearing the connexions between causation and explanation. Our general diagnosis is that the Neo-humean tradition wrongly supposes that nomic relations, with the exception of minor details, exhaust the causal relations.

  19. Nonsingularity of Flat Robertson-Walker Models in the Special Relativistic Approach to Einstein's Equations

    OpenAIRE

    Pitts, J. Brian; Schieve, W. C.

    2004-01-01

    Recently the neglected issue of the causal structure in the flat spacetime approach to Einstein's theory of gravity has been substantially resolved. Consistency requires that the flat metric's null cone be respected by the null cone of the effective curved metric. While consistency is not automatic, thoughtful use of the naive gauge freedom resolves the problem. After briefly recapitulating how consistent causality is achieved, we consider the flat Robertson-Walker Big Bang model. The Big Ban...

  20. A nonlinear Granger causality test between stock returns and investor sentiment for Chinese stock market: a wavelet-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chu, X.; Wu, C.; Qiu, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we re-examine the causality between the stock returns and investor sentiment in China. The number of net added accounts is used as a proxy for investor sentiment. To mimic the different investment horizons of market participants, we use the wavelet method to decompose stock returns

  1. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  2. A New Life-Span Approach to Conscientiousness and Health: Combining the Pieces of the Causal Puzzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Howard S.; Kern, Margaret L.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2014-01-01

    Conscientiousness has been shown to predict healthy behaviors, healthy social relationships, and physical health and longevity. The causal links, however, are complex and not well elaborated. Many extant studies have used comparable measures for conscientiousness, and a systematic endeavor to build cross-study analyses for conscientiousness and…

  3. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  4. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  5. Modelling approaches for angiogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taraboletti, G; Giavazzi, R

    2004-04-01

    The development of a functional vasculature within a tumour is a requisite for its growth and progression. This fact has led to the design of therapies directed toward the tumour vasculature, aiming either to prevent the formation of new vessels (anti-angiogenic) or to damage existing vessels (vascular targeting). The development of agents with different mechanisms of action requires powerful preclinical models for the analysis and optimization of these therapies. This review concerns 'classical' assays of angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo, recent approaches to target identification (analysis of gene and protein expression), and the study of morphological and functional changes in the vasculature in vivo (imaging techniques). It mainly describes assays designed for anti-angiogenic compounds, indicating, where possible, their application to the study of vascular-targeting agents. PMID:15120043

  6. Normalizability analysis of the generalized quantum electrodynamics from the causal point of view

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2015-01-01

    The causal perturbation theory is an axiomatic perturbative theory of the S-matrix. This formalism has as its essence the following axioms: causality, Lorentz invariance and asymptotic conditions. Any other property must be showed via the inductive method order-by-order and, of course, it depends on the particular physical model. In this work we shall study the normalizability of the generalized quantum electrodynamics in the framework of the causal approach. Furthermore, we analyse the impli...

  7. Causal premise semantics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Stefan

    2013-08-01

    The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal semantic analysis of conditionals, Kratzer-style premise semantics, allows for a straightforward implementation of the crucial ideas and insights of Pearl-style causal networks. I spell out the details of such an implementation, focusing especially on the notions of intervention on a network and backtracking interpretations of counterfactuals.

  8. Effective connectivity within the default mode network: dynamic causal modeling of resting-state fMRI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksim eSharaev

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Default Mode Network (DMN is a brain system that mediates internal modes of cognitive activity, showing higher neural activation when one is at rest. Nowadays, there is a lot of interest in assessing functional interactions between its key regions, but in the majority of studies only association of BOLD (Blood-oxygen-level dependent activation patterns is measured, so it is impossible to identify causal influences. There are some studies of causal interactions (i.e. effective connectivity, however often with inconsistent results. The aim of the current work is to find a stable pattern of connectivity between four DMN key regions: the medial prefrontal cortex mPFC, the posterior cingulate cortex PCC, left and right intraparietal cortex LIPC and RIPC. For this purpose fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 healthy subjects (1000 time points from each one was acquired and spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM on a resting-state fMRI data was performed. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Discrete Cosine Set at the low frequency band of 0.0078–0.1 Hz. The best model at the group level is the one where connections from both bilateral IPC to mPFC and PCC are significant and symmetrical in strength (p<0.05. Connections between mPFC and PCC are bidirectional, significant in the group and weaker than connections originating from bilateral IPC. In general, all connections from LIPC/RIPC to other DMN regions are much stronger. One can assume that these regions have a driving role within the DMN. Our results replicate some data from earlier works on effective connectivity within the DMN as well as provide new insights on internal DMN relationships and brain’s functioning at resting state.

  9. Towards the Accuracy of Cybernetic Strategy Planning Models: Causal Proof and Function Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian A. Hillbrand

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available All kind of strategic tasks within an enterprise require a deep understanding of its critical key success factors and their interrelations as well as an in-depth analysis of relevant environmental influences. Due to the openness of the underlying system, there seems to be an indefinite number of unknown variables influencing strategic goals. Cybernetic or systemic planning techniques try to overcome this intricacy by modeling the most important cause-and-effect relations within such a system. Although it seems to be obvious that there are specific influences between business variables, it is mostly impossible to identify the functional dependencies underlying such relations. Hence simulation or evaluation techniques based on such hypothetically assumed models deliver inaccurate results or fail completely. This paper addresses the need for accurate strategy planning models and proposes an approach to prove their cause-andeffect relations by empirical evidence. Based on this foundation an approach for the approximation of the underlying cause-andeffect function by the means of Artificial Neural Networks is developed.

  10. ARTS: A System-Level Framework for Modeling MPSoC Components and Analysis of their Causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahadevan, Shankar; Storgaard, Michael; Madsen, Jan;

    2005-01-01

    the MPSoC designers in modeling the different layers and understanding their causalities. While others have developed tools for static analysis and modeled limited correlations (processor-memory or processor-communication), our model captures the impact of dynamic and unpredictable OS behaviour......Designing complex heterogeneousmultiprocessor Systemon- Chip (MPSoC) requires support for modeling and analysis of the different layers i.e. application, operating system (OS) and platform architecture. This paper presents an abstract system-level modeling framework, called ARTS, to support...... on processor, memory and communication performance. In particular, we focus on analyzing the impact of application mapping on the processor and memory utilization taking the on-chip communication latency into account. A case-study of real-time multimedia application consisting of 114 tasks on a 6-processor...

  11. A systems genetics approach implicates USF1, FADS3, and other causal candidate genes for familial combined hyperlipidemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Plaisier

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesized that a common SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the upstream transcription factor 1 (USF1, rs3737787, may affect lipid traits by influencing gene expression levels, and we investigated this possibility utilizing the Mexican population, which has a high predisposition to dyslipidemia. We first associated rs3737787 genotypes in Mexican Familial Combined Hyperlipidemia (FCHL case/control fat biopsies, with global expression patterns. To identify sets of co-expressed genes co-regulated by similar factors such as transcription factors, genetic variants, or environmental effects, we utilized weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA. Through WGCNA in the Mexican FCHL fat biopsies we identified two significant Triglyceride (TG-associated co-expression modules. One of these modules was also associated with FCHL, the other FCHL component traits, and rs3737787 genotypes. This USF1-regulated FCHL-associated (URFA module was enriched for genes involved in lipid metabolic processes. Using systems genetics procedures we identified 18 causal candidate genes in the URFA module. The FCHL causal candidate gene fatty acid desaturase 3 (FADS3 was associated with TGs in a recent Caucasian genome-wide significant association study and we replicated this association in Mexican FCHL families. Based on a USF1-regulated FCHL-associated co-expression module and SNP rs3737787, we identify a set of causal candidate genes for FCHL-related traits. We then provide evidence from two independent datasets supporting FADS3 as a causal gene for FCHL and elevated TGs in Mexicans.

  12. From meta-omics to causality: experimental models for human microbiome research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Joëlle V; Desai, Mahesh S; Shah, Pranjul; Schneider, Jochen G; Wilmes, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale 'meta-omic' projects are greatly advancing our knowledge of the human microbiome and its specific role in governing health and disease states. A myriad of ongoing studies aim at identifying links between microbial community disequilibria (dysbiosis) and human diseases. However, due to the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of the human microbiome, cross-sectional, case-control and longitudinal studies may not have enough statistical power to allow causation to be deduced from patterns of association between variables in high-resolution omic datasets. Therefore, to move beyond reliance on the empirical method, experiments are critical. For these, robust experimental models are required that allow the systematic manipulation of variables to test the multitude of hypotheses, which arise from high-throughput molecular studies. Particularly promising in this respect are microfluidics-based in vitro co-culture systems, which allow high-throughput first-pass experiments aimed at proving cause-and-effect relationships prior to testing of hypotheses in animal models. This review focuses on widely used in vivo, in vitro, ex vivo and in silico approaches to study host-microbial community interactions. Such systems, either used in isolation or in a combinatory experimental approach, will allow systematic investigations of the impact of microbes on the health and disease of the human host. All the currently available models present pros and cons, which are described and discussed. Moreover, suggestions are made on how to develop future experimental models that not only allow the study of host-microbiota interactions but are also amenable to high-throughput experimentation. PMID:24450613

  13. Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the EU energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the European Union member states in the period 1993–2011. The study is divided into two main stages. During the first one, using cluster analysis methods, four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified. During the second stage, the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach proposed by Kònya (2006) was used to verify the hypothesis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the countries from four groups created in the previous step. The global financial crisis was also taken into account. The results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth. The results indicate causal relations in the group of countries with the greatest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the highest reduction of energy intensity and the highest share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. In the remaining groups the results mostly confirm the neutrality hypothesis. - Highlights: • Four groups of EU countries which meet energy policy targets at similar levels were identified. • Energy-growth nexus depends on the level of compliance with energy policy targets. • Most EU countries confirm the neutrality hypothesis. • Countries which meet energy policy targets best confirm remaining hypothesis

  14. Automatic search for fMRI connectivity mapping: an alternative to Granger causality testing using formal equivalences among SEM path modeling, VAR, and unified SEM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Kathleen M; Molenaar, Peter C M; Hillary, Frank G; Ram, Nilam; Rovine, Michael J

    2010-04-15

    Modeling the relationships among brain regions of interest (ROIs) carries unique potential to explicate how the brain orchestrates information processing. However, hurdles arise when using functional MRI data. Variation in ROI activity contains sequential dependencies and shared influences on synchronized activation. Consequently, both lagged and contemporaneous relationships must be considered for unbiased statistical parameter estimation. Identifying these relationships using a data-driven approach could guide theory-building regarding integrated processing. The present paper demonstrates how the unified SEM attends to both lagged and contemporaneous influences on ROI activity. Additionally, this paper offers an approach akin to Granger causality testing, Lagrange multiplier testing, for statistically identifying directional influence among ROIs and employs this approach using an automatic search procedure to arrive at the optimal model. Rationale for this equivalence is offered by explicating the formal relationships among path modeling, vector autoregression, and unified SEM. When applied to simulated data, biases in estimates which do not consider both lagged and contemporaneous paths become apparent. Finally, the use of unified SEM with the automatic search procedure is applied to an empirical data example.

  15. MULTIDIMENSIONALITY OF SOCIAL REALITY AND CAUSAL ASYMMETRY OF TIME AS THEORETICAL BASES OF PHENOMENOLOGICAL AND SYSTEM APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM OF SOCIAL FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plotnikov V. V.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article represents experience of a reflection over theoretical prerequisites of phenomenological and system approaches to a problem of forecasting of social reality. An object of research are the principle of multidimensionality of social reality in aspect of a determinism and indeterminism of social processes, and also the principle of causal asymmetry of time acting as the ontologic basis of multidimensionality of reality. It is claimed, that at the heart of statement of the major philosophical problems there is an experience of a touch to a phenomenon of multidimensionality of reality. Multidimensionality of reality is shown as a dependence of fundamental characteristics on the level of theoretical generalization and an intentionality of the consciousness registering reality in its existence. The hypothesis of multidimensionality of social reality assumes that social processes can be described and as strictly determined, predicted and as depending on a free will of the person depending on the level of theoretical generalization at which they are considered. The principle of causal asymmetry of time is a form of multidimensionality of time and a condition of multidimensionality of process, including social. At the heart of causal asymmetry of time, there is a systemacity of time, not reducibility of time neither to consciousness, nor to life. It is shown that is impossible differently as through the synthesizing activity of consciousness, to connect together two senses, equally directly related at the right time: duration keeping time in some equal unity of the moments and the variability, change of times expressing ontologic exclusiveness of the present moment. Multidimensionality and asymmetry of time can be considered as theoretical prerequisites of phenomenological and system approach to a problem of social forecasting

  16. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  17. Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2011-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

  18. Enhancing stakeholder participation in river basin management using mental mapping and causality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, D.

    2009-04-01

    Participation processes play a crucial role in implementing adaptive management in river basins. A range of different participative methods is being applied, however, little is known on their effectiveness in addressing the specific question or policy process at stake and their performance in different socio-economic and cultural settings. To shed light on the role of cultural settings on the outcomes of a participative process we carried out a comparative study of participation processes using group model building (GMB) in a European, a Central Asian, and an African river basin. We use an analytical framework which covers the goals, the role of science and stakeholders, the initiation and methods of the processes framed by very different cultural, socio-economic and biophysical conditions. Across all three basins, the GMB processes produced a shared understanding among all participants of the major water management issues in the respective river basin and common approaches to address them. The "ownership of the ideas" by the stakeholders, i.e. the topic to be addressed in a GMB process, is important for their willingness to contribute to such a participatory process. Differences, however, exist in so far that cultural and contextual constraints of the basin drive the way the GMB processes have been designed and how their results contribute to policy development.

  19. Compton scattering in a unitary approach with causality constraints 11.55.Fv; 13.40.Gp; 13.60.Fz; Nucleon-photon vertex; Off-shell form factors; K-matrix formalism; Compton scattering; Dispersion relations

    CERN Document Server

    Kondratyuk, S

    2000-01-01

    Pion-loop corrections for Compton scattering are calculated in a novel approach based on the use of dispersion relations in a formalism obeying unitarity. The basic framework is presented, including an application to Compton scattering. In the approach the effects of the non-pole contribution arising from pion dressing are expressed in terms of (half-off-shell) form factors and the nucleon self-energy. These quantities are constructed through the application of dispersion integrals to the pole contribution of loop diagrams, the same as those included in the calculation of the amplitudes through a K-matrix formalism. The prescription of minimal substitution is used to restore gauge invariance. The resulting relativistic-covariant model combines constraints from unitarity, causality, and crossing symmetry.

  20. The problem of causality in cultivation research

    OpenAIRE

    Rossmann, Constanze; Brosius, Hans-Bernd

    2004-01-01

    This paper offers an up-to-date review of problems in determining causal relationships in cultivation research, and considers the research rationales of various approaches with special reference to causal interpretation. It describes in turn a number of methodologies for addressing the problem and resolving it as far as this is possible. The issue of causal inference arises not only in cultivation research, however, but is basic to all media effects theories and approaches primarily at the ma...

  1. The Visual Causality Analyst: An Interactive Interface for Causal Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Mueller, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Uncovering the causal relations that exist among variables in multivariate datasets is one of the ultimate goals in data analytics. Causation is related to correlation but correlation does not imply causation. While a number of casual discovery algorithms have been devised that eliminate spurious correlations from a network, there are no guarantees that all of the inferred causations are indeed true. Hence, bringing a domain expert into the casual reasoning loop can be of great benefit in identifying erroneous casual relationships suggested by the discovery algorithm. To address this need we present the Visual Causal Analyst-a novel visual causal reasoning framework that allows users to apply their expertise, verify and edit causal links, and collaborate with the causal discovery algorithm to identify a valid causal network. Its interface consists of both an interactive 2D graph view and a numerical presentation of salient statistical parameters, such as regression coefficients, p-values, and others. Both help users in gaining a good understanding of the landscape of causal structures particularly when the number of variables is large. Our framework is also novel in that it can handle both numerical and categorical variables within one unified model and return plausible results. We demonstrate its use via a set of case studies using multiple practical datasets. PMID:26529703

  2. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate......In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...

  3. Ecological and cosmological coexistence thinking in a hypervariable environment: causal models of economic success and failure among farmers, foragers, and fishermen of southwestern Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Bram; Tsiazonera; Tombo, Jaovola; Hajasoa, Patricia; Nagnisaha, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    A fact of life for farmers, hunter-gatherers, and fishermen in the rural parts of the world are that crops fail, wild resources become scarce, and winds discourage fishing. In this article we approach subsistence risk from the perspective of "coexistence thinking," the simultaneous application of natural and supernatural causal models to explain subsistence success and failure. In southwestern Madagascar, the ecological world is characterized by extreme variability and unpredictability, and the cosmological world is characterized by anxiety about supernatural dangers. Ecological and cosmological causes seem to point to different risk minimizing strategies: to avoid losses from drought, flood, or heavy winds, one should diversify activities and be flexible; but to avoid losses caused by disrespected spirits one should narrow one's range of behaviors to follow the code of taboos and offerings. We address this paradox by investigating whether southwestern Malagasy understand natural and supernatural causes as occupying separate, contradictory explanatory systems (target dependence), whether they make no categorical distinction between natural and supernatural forces and combine them within a single explanatory system (synthetic thinking), or whether they have separate natural and supernatural categories of causes that are integrated into one explanatory system so that supernatural forces drive natural forces (integrative thinking). Results from three field studies suggest that (a) informants explain why crops, prey, and market activities succeed or fail with reference to natural causal forces like rainfall and pests, (b) they explain why individual persons experience success or failure primarily with supernatural factors like God and ancestors, and (c) they understand supernatural forces as driving natural forces, so that ecology and cosmology represent distinct sets of causes within a single explanatory framework. We expect that future cross-cultural analyses may

  4. Ecological and cosmological coexistence thinking in a hypervariable environment: Causal models of economic success and failure among farmers, foragers, and fishermen of southwestern Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram eTucker

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A fact of life for farmers, hunter-gatherers, and fishermen in the rural parts of the world are that crops fail, wild resources become scarce, and winds discourage fishing. In this article we approach subsistence risk from the perspective of coexistence thinking, the simultaneous application of natural and supernatural causal models to explain subsistence success and failure. In southwestern Madagascar, the ecological world is characterized by extreme variability and unpredictability, and the cosmological world is characterized by anxiety about supernatural dangers. Ecological and cosmological causes seem to point to different risk minimizing strategies: to avoid losses from drought, flood, or heavy winds, one should diversify activities and be flexible; but to avoid losses caused by disrespected spirits one should narrow one's range of behaviors to follow the code of taboos and offerings. We address this paradox by investigating whether southwestern Malagasy understand natural and supernatural causes as occupying separate, contradictory explanatory systems (target dependence, whether they make no categorical distinction between natural and supernatural forces and combine them within a single explanatory system (synthetic thinking, or whether they have separate natural and supernatural categories of causes that are integrated into one explanatory system so that supernatural forces drive natural forces (integrative thinking. Results from three field studies suggest that (a informants explain why crops, prey, and market activities succeed or fail with reference to natural causal forces like rainfall and pests, (b they explain why individual persons experience success or failure primarily with supernatural factors like God and ancestors, and (c they understand supernatural forces as driving natural forces, so that ecology and cosmology represent distinct sets of causes within a single explanatory framework. We expect that future cross

  5. When two become one: the limits of causality analysis of brain dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicharro, Daniel; Ledberg, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Biological systems often consist of multiple interacting subsystems, the brain being a prominent example. To understand the functions of such systems it is important to analyze if and how the subsystems interact and to describe the effect of these interactions. In this work we investigate the extent to which the cause-and-effect framework is applicable to such interacting subsystems. We base our work on a standard notion of causal effects and define a new concept called natural causal effect. This new concept takes into account that when studying interactions in biological systems, one is often not interested in the effect of perturbations that alter the dynamics. The interest is instead in how the causal connections participate in the generation of the observed natural dynamics. We identify the constraints on the structure of the causal connections that determine the existence of natural causal effects. In particular, we show that the influence of the causal connections on the natural dynamics of the system often cannot be analyzed in terms of the causal effect of one subsystem on another. Only when the causing subsystem is autonomous with respect to the rest can this interpretation be made. We note that subsystems in the brain are often bidirectionally connected, which means that interactions rarely should be quantified in terms of cause-and-effect. We furthermore introduce a framework for how natural causal effects can be characterized when they exist. Our work also has important consequences for the interpretation of other approaches commonly applied to study causality in the brain. Specifically, we discuss how the notion of natural causal effects can be combined with Granger causality and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM). Our results are generic and the concept of natural causal effects is relevant in all areas where the effects of interactions between subsystems are of interest.

  6. When two become one: the limits of causality analysis of brain dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Chicharro

    Full Text Available Biological systems often consist of multiple interacting subsystems, the brain being a prominent example. To understand the functions of such systems it is important to analyze if and how the subsystems interact and to describe the effect of these interactions. In this work we investigate the extent to which the cause-and-effect framework is applicable to such interacting subsystems. We base our work on a standard notion of causal effects and define a new concept called natural causal effect. This new concept takes into account that when studying interactions in biological systems, one is often not interested in the effect of perturbations that alter the dynamics. The interest is instead in how the causal connections participate in the generation of the observed natural dynamics. We identify the constraints on the structure of the causal connections that determine the existence of natural causal effects. In particular, we show that the influence of the causal connections on the natural dynamics of the system often cannot be analyzed in terms of the causal effect of one subsystem on another. Only when the causing subsystem is autonomous with respect to the rest can this interpretation be made. We note that subsystems in the brain are often bidirectionally connected, which means that interactions rarely should be quantified in terms of cause-and-effect. We furthermore introduce a framework for how natural causal effects can be characterized when they exist. Our work also has important consequences for the interpretation of other approaches commonly applied to study causality in the brain. Specifically, we discuss how the notion of natural causal effects can be combined with Granger causality and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. Our results are generic and the concept of natural causal effects is relevant in all areas where the effects of interactions between subsystems are of interest.

  7. Multiscale causal connectivity analysis by canonical correlation: theory and application to epileptic brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guo Rong; Chen, Fuyong; Kang, Dezhi; Zhang, Xiangyang; Marinazzo, Daniele; Chen, Huafu

    2011-11-01

    Multivariate Granger causality is a well-established approach for inferring information flow in complex systems, and it is being increasingly applied to map brain connectivity. Traditional Granger causality is based on vector autoregressive (AR) or mixed autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, which are potentially affected by errors in parameter estimation and may be contaminated by zero-lag correlation, notably when modeling neuroimaging data. To overcome this issue, we present here an extended canonical correlation approach to measure multivariate Granger causal interactions among time series. The procedure includes a reduced rank step for calculating canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and extends the definition of causality including instantaneous effects, thus avoiding the potential estimation problems of AR (or ARMA) models. We tested this approach on simulated data and confirmed its practical utility by exploring local network connectivity at different scales in the epileptic brain analyzing scalp and depth-EEG data during an interictal period. PMID:21788178

  8. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  9. A causal model of antecedents with burnout focusing on the intermediate role of hardy personality in Iranian nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemana, Foruzan; Bemana, Simin; Farhadi, Payam; Shokrpour, Nasrin

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays burnout is a common issue in all health systems and therapeutic professions. Burnout is caused by job stressors and results in reduction in output, increase in absenteeism and health expenses, behavioral changes, and sometimes drugs abuse. Nonetheless, people who have hardy personalities experience less exhaustion. The present research aimed to present a causal model of antecedents with burnout to emphasize the intermediate role of hardy personality in the nurses working in the public hospitals of Shiraz, Iran. The study data were collected using the Nursing Burnout Scale questionnaire (Int J Nurs Stud. 2008;45(3):418-427). In addition, the structural equation method was used as a model in order to determine the relationship between the variables. The suggested pattern in this research was checked by Leasrel software, version 8.5. The study results showed that antecedents, such as incorrect supervision, responsibility, and workload, have a significant effect on burnout. However, mediated hardy personality had no effect on burnout. The results also showed that the people who had hardy personality could manage the stressful situations well and, consequently, rarely experience burnout. Overall, if the job stressors are existent in the job environment and the individuals cannot eradicate them, they will cause burnout outbreak.

  10. Dynamic causal modelling of eye movements during pursuit: Confirming precision-encoding in V1 using MEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Rick A; Bauer, Markus; Pinotsis, Dimitris; Friston, Karl J

    2016-05-15

    This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories and the ERFs. The DCM for pursuit was based on predictive coding and active inference, and predicts subjects' eye movements based on their (subjective) Bayesian beliefs about target (and eye) motion. The precisions of these hierarchical beliefs can be inferred from behavioural (pursuit) data. The DCM for MEG data used an established biophysical model of neuronal activity that includes parameters for the gain of superficial pyramidal cells, which is thought to encode precision at the neuronal level. Previous studies (using DCM of pursuit data) suggest that noisy target motion increases subjective precision at the sensory level: i.e., subjects attend more to the target's sensory attributes. We compared (noisy motion-induced) changes in the synaptic gain based on the modelling of MEG data to changes in subjective precision estimated using the pursuit data. We demonstrate that imprecise target motion increases the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in V1 (across subjects). Furthermore, increases in sensory precision - inferred by our behavioural DCM - correlate with the increase in gain in V1, across subjects. This is a step towards a fully integrated model of brain computations, cortical responses and behaviour that may provide a useful clinical tool in conditions like schizophrenia. PMID:26921713

  11. Explaining prosocial intentions : Testing causal relationships in the norm activation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steg, Linda; de Groot, Judith

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines factors influencing prosocial intentions. On the basis of the norm activation model (NAM), we propose that four variables influence prosocial intentions or behaviours: ( I) personal norms (PN), reflecting feelings of moral obligation to engage in prosocial behaviour, (2) awarenes

  12. Residential Segregation of Blacks and Racial Inequality in Southern Cities: Toward a Causal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roof, W. Clark

    This study explores how residential segregation can be thought of in terms of an economic competition theory of minority-group relations. The model proposed is considered applicable to the American South, and with some modification, relevant to other settings. The objectives are: (1) to show that residential segregation indices are related to…

  13. Using the PRECEDE Model for Causal Analysis of Bulimic Tendencies among Elite Women Swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, RoseAnn; Taub, Diane E.

    1993-01-01

    Describes a study of weight control techniques and bulimic tendencies among elite female participants in an Olympic Swimming Selection Meet. Results showed concern with thinness, body dissatisfaction, and unhealthy eating, dieting, and weight loss patterns among participants. Discusses the explanatory power of the PRECEDE model. (SM)

  14. Causal Client Models in Selecting Effective Interventions: A Cognitive Mapping Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kwaadsteniet, Leontien; Hagmayer, York; Krol, Nicole P. C. M.; Witteman, Cilia L. M.

    2010-01-01

    An important reason to choose an intervention to treat psychological problems of clients is the expectation that the intervention will be effective in alleviating the problems. The authors investigated whether clinicians base their ratings of the effectiveness of interventions on models that they construct representing the factors causing and…

  15. Testing the Causal Mediation Component of Dodge's Social Information Processing Model of Social Competence and Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possel, Patrick; Seemann, Simone; Ahrens, Stefanie; Hautzinger, Martin

    2006-01-01

    In Dodge's model of "social information processing" depression is the result of a linear sequence of five stages of information processing ("Annu Rev Psychol" 44: 559-584, 1993). These stages follow a person's reaction to situational stimuli, such that each stage of information processing mediates the relationship between earlier and later stages.…

  16. Extraction of Textual Causal Relationships based on Natural Language Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepideh Jamshidi-Nejad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Natural language processing is a highly important subcategory in the wide area of artificial intelligence. Employing appropriate computational algorithms on sophisticated linguistic operations is the aim of natural language processing to extract and create computational theories from languages. In order to achieve this goal, the knowledge of linguists is needed in addition to computer science. In the field of linguistics, the syntactic and semantic relation of words and phrases and the extraction of causation is very significant which the latter is an information retrieval challenge. Recently, there is an increased attention towards the automatic extraction of causation from textual data sets. Although, previous research extracted the casual relations from uninterrupted data sets by using knowledge-based inference technologies and manual coding. Recently, finding comprehensive approaches for detection and extractions of causal arguments is a research area in the field of natural language processing.In this paper, a three-stepped approach is established through which, the position of words with syntax trees is obtained by extracting causation from causal and non-causal sentences of Web text. The arguments of events were extracted according to the dependency tree of phrases implemented by Python packages. Then potential causal relations were extracted by the extraction of specific nodes of the tree. In the final step, a statistical model is introduced for measuring the potential causal relations. Experimental results and evaluations with Recall, Precision and F-measure metrics show the accuracy and efficiency of the suggested model.

  17. Identifying Causal Effects with Computer Algebra

    CERN Document Server

    García-Puente, Luis David; Sullivant, Seth

    2010-01-01

    The long-standing identification problem for causal effects in graphical models has many partial results but lacks a systematic study. We show how computer algebra can be used to either prove that a causal effect can be identified, generically identified, or show that the effect is not generically identifiable. We report on the results of our computations for linear structural equation models, where we determine precisely which causal effects are generically identifiable for all graphs on three and four vertices.

  18. Algorithms of causal inference for the analysis of effective connectivity among brain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicharro, Daniel; Panzeri, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, powerful general algorithms of causal inference have been developed. In particular, in the framework of Pearl's causality, algorithms of inductive causation (IC and IC(*)) provide a procedure to determine which causal connections among nodes in a network can be inferred from empirical observations even in the presence of latent variables, indicating the limits of what can be learned without active manipulation of the system. These algorithms can in principle become important complements to established techniques such as Granger causality and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) to analyze causal influences (effective connectivity) among brain regions. However, their application to dynamic processes has not been yet examined. Here we study how to apply these algorithms to time-varying signals such as electrophysiological or neuroimaging signals. We propose a new algorithm which combines the basic principles of the previous algorithms with Granger causality to obtain a representation of the causal relations suited to dynamic processes. Furthermore, we use graphical criteria to predict dynamic statistical dependencies between the signals from the causal structure. We show how some problems for causal inference from neural signals (e.g., measurement noise, hemodynamic responses, and time aggregation) can be understood in a general graphical approach. Focusing on the effect of spatial aggregation, we show that when causal inference is performed at a coarser scale than the one at which the neural sources interact, results strongly depend on the degree of integration of the neural sources aggregated in the signals, and thus characterize more the intra-areal properties than the interactions among regions. We finally discuss how the explicit consideration of latent processes contributes to understand Granger causality and DCM as well as to distinguish functional and effective connectivity.

  19. Algorithms of causal inference for the analysis of effective connectivity among brain regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eChicharro

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, powerful general algorithms of causal inference have been developed. In particular, in the framework of Pearl’s causality, algorithms of inductive causation (IC and IC* provide a procedure to determine which causal connections among nodes in a network can be inferred from empirical observations even in the presence of latent variables, indicating the limits of what can be learned without active manipulation of the system. These algorithms can in principle become important complements to established techniques such as Granger causality and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM to analyze causal influences (effective connectivity among brain regions. However, their application to dynamic processes has not been yet examined. Here we study how to apply these algorithms to time-varying signals such as electrophysiological or neuroimaging signals. We propose a new algorithm which combines the basic principles of the previous algorithms with Granger causality to obtain a representation of the causal relations suited to dynamic processes. Furthermore, we use graphical criteria to predict dynamic statistical dependencies between the signals from the causal structure. We show how some problems for causal inference from neural signals (e.g. measurement noise, hemodynamic responses, and time aggregation can be understood in a general graphical approach. Focusing on the effect of spatial aggregation, we show that when causal inference is performed at a coarser scale than the one at which the neural sources interact, results strongly depend on the degree of integration of the neural sources aggregated in the signals, and thus characterize more the intra-areal properties than the interactions among regions. We finally discuss how the explicit consideration of latent processes contributes to understand Granger causality and DCM as well as to distinguish functional and effective connectivity.

  20. Anterior cingulate cortico-hippocampal dysconnectivity in unaffected relatives of schizophrenia patients: a stochastic dynamic causal modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Bin Xi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Familial risk plays a significant role in the etiology of schizophrenia (SZ. Many studies using neuroimaging have demonstrated structural and functional alterations in relatives of SZ patients, with significant results found in diverse brain regions involving the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, caudate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC, and hippocampus. This study investigated whether unaffected relatives of first episode SZ differ from healthy controls (HCs in effective connectivity measures among these regions. Forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of first episode SZ patients — according to the DSM-IV — were studied. Fifty HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. We used stochastic dynamic causal modeling (sDCM to estimate the directed connections between the left ACC, right ACC, left caudate, right caudate, left DLPFC, left hippocampus, and right hippocampus. We used Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA to characterize the differences. The BPA results showed hyperconnectivity from the left ACC to right hippocampus and hypoconnectivity from the right ACC to right hippocampus in SZ relatives compared to HCs. The pattern of anterior cingulate cortico-hippocampal connectivity in SZ relatives may be a familial feature of SZ risk, appearing to reflect familial susceptibility for SZ.

  1. Anterior Cingulate Cortico-Hippocampal Dysconnectivity in Unaffected Relatives of Schizophrenia Patients: A Stochastic Dynamic Causal Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Yi-Bin; Li, Chen; Cui, Long-Biao; Liu, Jian; Guo, Fan; Li, Liang; Liu, Ting-Ting; Liu, Kang; Chen, Gang; Xi, Min; Wang, Hua-Ning; Yin, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Familial risk plays a significant role in the etiology of schizophrenia (SZ). Many studies using neuroimaging have demonstrated structural and functional alterations in relatives of SZ patients, with significant results found in diverse brain regions involving the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), caudate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and hippocampus. This study investigated whether unaffected relatives of first episode SZ differ from healthy controls (HCs) in effective connectivity measures among these regions. Forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of first episode SZ patients-according to the DSM-IV-were studied. Fifty HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We used stochastic dynamic causal modeling (sDCM) to estimate the directed connections between the left ACC, right ACC, left caudate, right caudate, left DLPFC, left hippocampus, and right hippocampus. We used Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA) to characterize the differences. The BPA results showed hyperconnectivity from the left ACC to right hippocampus and hypoconnectivity from the right ACC to right hippocampus in SZ relatives compared to HCs. The pattern of anterior cingulate cortico-hippocampal connectivity in SZ relatives may be a familial feature of SZ risk, appearing to reflect familial susceptibility for SZ. PMID:27512370

  2. Granger causality mapping during joint actions reveals evidence for forward models that could overcome sensory-motor delays.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idil Kokal

    Full Text Available Studies investigating joint actions have suggested a central role for the putative mirror neuron system (pMNS because of the close link between perception and action provided by these brain regions [1], [2], [3]. In contrast, our previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment demonstrated that the BOLD response of the pMNS does not suggest that it directly integrates observed and executed actions during joint actions [4]. To test whether the pMNS might contribute indirectly to the integration process by sending information to brain areas responsible for this integration (integration network, here we used Granger causality mapping (GCM [5]. We explored the directional information flow between the anterior sites of the pMNS and previously identified integrative brain regions. We found that the left BA44 sent more information than it received to both the integration network (left thalamus, right middle occipital gyrus and cerebellum and more posterior nodes of the pMNS (BA2. Thus, during joint actions, two anatomically separate networks therefore seem effectively connected and the information flow is predominantly from anterior to posterior areas of the brain. These findings suggest that the pMNS is involved indirectly in joint actions by transforming observed and executed actions into a common code and is part of a generative model that could predict the future somatosensory and visual consequences of observed and executed actions in order to overcome otherwise inevitable neural delays.

  3. Rumination as a Mediator of Chronic Stress Effects on Hypertension: A Causal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic stress has been linked to hypertension, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly specified. We suggest that chronic stress poses a risk for hypertension through repeated occurrence of acute stressors (often stemming from the chronic stress context that cause activation of stress-mediating physiological systems. Previous models have often focused on the magnitude of the acute physiological response as a risk factor; we attempt to extend this to address the issue of duration of exposure. Key to our model is the notion that these acute stressors can emerge not only in response to stressors present in the environment, but also to mental representations of those (or other stressors. Consequently, although the experience of any given stressor may be brief, a stressor often results in a constellation of negative cognitions and emotions that form a mental representation of the stressor. Ruminating about this mental representation of the stressful event can cause autonomic activation similar to that observed in response to the original incident, and may occur and persist long after the event itself has ended. Thus, rumination helps explain how chronic stress causes repeated (acute activation of one’s stress-mediating physiological systems, the effects of which accumulate over time, resulting in hypertension risk.

  4. Self-Belief Does Make A Difference: A Reciprocal Effects Model of the Causal Ordering of Physical Self-concept and Gymnastics Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, Herbert,; Chanal, Julien; Sarrazin, Philippe

    2006-01-01

    International audience A large body of research in support of the reciprocal effects model of causal ordering demonstrates that prior academic self-concept predicts subsequent academic achievement beyond what can be explained in terms of prior achievement. Here we evaluate the generalizability of this support for the reciprocal effects model to a physical activity context in which achievement is reflected in gymnastics skills on a standardized gymnastics performance test evaluated by exper...

  5. Practical application of the vanishing tetrad test for causal indicator measurement models: an example from health-related quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A; Lennox, Richard D; Dahly, Darren L

    2009-05-01

    Researchers are often faced with the task of trying to measure abstract concepts. The most common approach is to use multiple indicators that reflect an underlying latent variable. However, this 'effect indicator' measurement model is not always appropriate; sometimes the indicators instead cause the construct of interest. While the notion of 'causal indicators' has been known for some time, it is still too often ignored. However, there are limited means to determine whether a possible indicator should be treated as a cause or an effect of the latent construct of interest. Perhaps the best empirical way is to use the vanishing tetrad test (VTT), yet this method is still often overlooked. We speculate that one reason for this is the lack of published examples of its use in practice, written for an audience without extensive statistical training. The goal of this paper was to help fill this gap in the literature-to provide a basic example of how to use the VTT. We illustrated the VTT by looking at multiple items from a health related quality of life instrument that seem more likely to cause the latent variable rather than the other way around.

  6. Normalizability analysis of the generalized quantum electrodynamics from the causal point of view

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2015-01-01

    The causal perturbation theory is an axiomatic perturbative theory of the S-matrix. This formalism has as its essence the following axioms: causality, Lorentz invariance and asymptotic conditions. Any other property must be showed via the inductive method order-by-order and, of course, it depends on the particular physical model. In this work we shall study the normalizability of the generalized quantum electrodynamics in the framework of the causal approach. Furthermore, we analyse the implication of the gauge invariance onto the model and obtain the respective Ward-Takahashi-Fradkin identities.

  7. A causal model of coping and well-being in elderly people with arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downe-Wamboldt, B L; Melanson, P M

    1998-06-01

    The purpose of this longitudinal study was to test a model of the relationships among social economic status, gender, severity of impairment, stress emotions, coping strategies and psychological well-being. A sample of 78 elderly women and men, 60 years old or over, and diagnosed as having rheumatoid arthritis since mid-life, volunteered to participate in the study. Twelve months later, 64 of these elderly people were re-interviewed. Path analysis was used to examine the empirical import of the Lazarus and Folkman theory of stress and coping. Analysis of variance for repeated measures was used to test for changes over time among the study variable. A consistent relationship between severity of impairment, emotions, coping strategies and psychological well-being emerged from the data at time one and time two. Choice of coping strategies and psychological well-being were primarily influenced by emotions. The best predictor of psychological well-being at both time periods was the stress emotion of challenge. At both time periods, optimistic and self-reliant coping strategies were used most often and evasive and emotive strategies the least.

  8. 基于图模型方法的Granger因果性检验∗%Granger Causality Detecting Based on Graphical Modelling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏岳嵩

    2016-01-01

    The Granger causality is an important criterion for measuring the dynamic relation-ship among system variables. In this paper, we apply the graphical model method to explore the Granger causal relations among variables. The Granger causality graph is established and its structural identification is investigated based on the conditional mutual information and permutation test. The test statistics is estimated using the correlation integral of chaos theory and its limiting distribution is proved. Finally, the Granger causality among main international stock markets is investigated using the proposed method.%Granger因果性是衡量系统变量间动态关系的重要依据。本文利用图模型方法研究变量间的Granger因果性,建立了Granger因果图。基于条件互信息和置换检验法建立了Granger因果图结构的辨识方法,利用混沌理论中的关联积分估计相应的检验统计量,给出了统计量的渐进分布,并用所给方法研究国际主要股市间的Granger因果关系。

  9. The Equation of Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Do Minh

    1999-01-01

    We research the natural causality of the Universe. We find that the equation of causality provides very good results on physics. That is our first endeavour and success in describing a quantitative expression of the law of causality. Hence, our theoretical point suggests ideas to build other laws including the law of the Universe's evolution.

  10. The continuum limit of causal fermion systems from Planck scale structures to macroscopic physics

    CERN Document Server

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries". The dynamics is described by a novel variational principle, called the causal action principle. In addition to the basics, the book provides all the necessary mathematical background and explains how the causal action principle gives rise to the interactions of the standard model plus gravity on the level of second-quantized fermionic fields coupled to classical bosonic fields. The focus is on getting a mathematically sound connection between causal fermion systems and physical systems in Minkowski space. The book is intended for graduate students e...

  11. Model Construct Based Enterprise Model Architecture and Its Modeling Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In order to support enterprise integration, a kind of model construct based enterprise model architecture and its modeling approach are studied in this paper. First, the structural makeup and internal relationships of enterprise model architecture are discussed. Then, the concept of reusable model construct (MC) which belongs to the control view and can help to derive other views is proposed. The modeling approach based on model construct consists of three steps, reference model architecture synthesis, enterprise model customization, system design and implementation. According to MC based modeling approach a case study with the background of one-kind-product machinery manufacturing enterprises is illustrated. It is shown that proposal model construct based enterprise model architecture and modeling approach are practical and efficient.

  12. The enhanced information flow from visual cortex to frontal area facilitates SSVEP response: evidence from model-driven and data-driven causality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fali; Tian, Yin; Zhang, Yangsong; Qiu, Kan; Tian, Chunyang; Jing, Wei; Liu, Tiejun; Xia, Yang; Guo, Daqing; Yao, Dezhong; Xu, Peng

    2015-10-05

    The neural mechanism of steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) is still not clearly understood. Especially, only certain frequency stimuli can evoke SSVEP. Our previous network study reveals that 8 Hz stimulus that can evoke strong SSVEP response shows the enhanced linkage strength between frontal and visual cortex. To further probe the directed information flow between the two cortex areas for various frequency stimuli, this paper develops a causality analysis based on the inversion of double columns model using particle swarm optimization (PSO) to characterize the directed information flow between visual and frontal cortices with the intracranial rat electroencephalograph (EEG). The estimated model parameters demonstrate that the 8 Hz stimulus shows the enhanced directional information flow from visual cortex to frontal lobe facilitates SSVEP response, which may account for the strong SSVEP response for 8 Hz stimulus. Furthermore, the similar finding is replicated by data-driven causality analysis. The inversion of neural mass model proposed in this study may be helpful to provide the new causality analysis to link the physiological model and the observed datasets in neuroscience and clinical researches.

  13. A Causal Model of Linkages between Environment and Organizational Structure, and Its Performance Implications in International Service Distribution: An Empirical Study of Restaurant and Hotel Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Seehyung

    2005-01-01

    This research develops and tests a model of the service unit ownership and control patterns used by international service companies. The main purpose of this study is to investigate trivariate causal relationships among environmental factors, organizational structure, and perceived performance in the internationalization process of service firms. A service firm operating in foreign soil has a choice of three general entry mode strategies offering different degrees of ownership and control of ...

  14. Classification of Causality in Bond Graph Model for Linear Actuator Revolute Joint Mechanisn%直线驱动铰链机构的键合图因果关系分类整理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李晓田; 王安麟

    2016-01-01

    Bond graph modeling for linear actuator revolute joint mechanism which uses Lagrange approach or stiff compliance approach with new elements inserted causes stiff equation problems, and causality in bond graph is not classified and modularized. A causality classification method is proposed for modeling with this kind of mechanism. Classifications for elements are classified as main-body,cylinder and lever type by analysis of element bond graphs and connection patterns, and joints are classified as root,pusher,pushed and load type to maintain the original causal link. Causality determination principles are proposed by these definitions to make modeling orderliness. An excavator mechanism modeling and simulation demonstration proved that proposed method is suitable for mechanism cases of earthmoving vehicles.%采用键合图方法对直线驱动铰链机构进行动力学建模时,传统的虚拟弹性铰接点或拉格朗日乘子法会引入新的动态环节导致出现刚性问题,势流关系混乱难以规范化和模块化。提出了一种针对该机构的键合图因果关系分类整理方法,通过元件接口势流因果分析及元件间连接规则整理两个方面,分类为液压缸、主部件和连杆三种元件,并分别统一各铰接点势流因果关系接口为根点、外力顶点、力输出点和负载点,使得刚体元件接口的因果关系得以延续。在此基础上建立了元件间连接的规范方法以简化建模过程。最后反铲挖掘机的建模及仿真示例证明了本方法对于工程机械的常见工作机构均可适用。

  15. Phenomenology of Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    CERN Document Server

    Mielczarek, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    The four dimensional Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity is already more than ten years old theory with numerous unprecedented predictions such as non-trivial phase structure of gravitational field and dimensional running. Here, we discuss possible empirical consequences of CDT derived based on the two features of the approach mentioned above. A possibility of using both astrophysical and cosmological observations to test CDT is discussed. We show that scenarios which can be ruled out at the empirical level exist.

  16. Multiple Model Approaches to Modelling and Control,

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    solving. More complex plants, advances in information technology, and tightened economical and environmental constraints in recent years have lead topractising engineers being faced with modelling and control problems of increasing complexity. When confronted with such problems, there is a strongintuitive......Why Multiple Models?This book presents a variety of approaches which produce complex models or controllers by piecing together a number of simpler subsystems. Thisdivide-and-conquer strategy is a long-standing and general way of copingwith complexity in engineering systems, nature and human problem...... appeal in building systems which operate robustly over a wide range of operating conditions by decomposing them into a number of simplerlinear modelling or control problems, even for nonlinear modelling or control problems. This appeal has been a factor in the development of increasinglypopular `local...

  17. The role of awareness campaigns in the improvement of separate collection rates of municipal waste among university students: A Causal Chain Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saladié, Òscar; Santos-Lacueva, Raquel

    2016-02-01

    One of the main objectives of municipal waste management policies is to improve separate collection, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Several factors influence people behavior to recycling and, consequently, they play an important role to achieve the goals proposed in the management policies. People can improve separate collection rates because of a wide range of causes with different weight. Here, we have determined the uplift in probability to improve separate collection of municipal waste created by the awareness campaigns among 806 undergraduate students at Universitat Rovira i Virgili (Catalonia) by means of the Causal Chain Approach, a probabilistic method. A 73.2% state having improved separate collection in recent years and the most of them (75.4%) remember some awareness campaign. The results show the uplift in probability to improve separate collection attributable to the awareness campaigns is 17.9%. They should be taken into account by policy makers in charge of municipal waste management. Nevertheless, it must be assumed an awareness campaign will never be sufficient to achieve the objectives defined in municipal waste management programmes.

  18. Granger causality in wall-bounded turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granger causality is based on the idea that if a variable helps to predict another one, then they are probably involved in a causality relationship. This technique is based on the identification of a predictive model for causality detection. The aim of this paper is to use Granger causality to study the dynamics and the energy redistribution between scales and components in wall-bounded turbulent flows. In order to apply it on flows, Granger causality is generalized for snapshot-based observations of large size using linear-model identification methods coming from model reduction. Optimized DMD, a variant of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition, is considered for building a linear model based on snapshots. This method is used to link physical events and extract physical mechanisms associated to the bursting process in the logarithmic layer of a turbulent channel flow.

  19. Introductive remarks on causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana A. Romio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

  20. Toward creation of interaction models: simple objects-interaction approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Díaz, Teresa; García-Huerta, Juan-M.; Vázquez-Cervantes, Alberto; Jiménez-Hernández, Hugo; Herrera-Navarro, Ana-M.

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a proposal to manage simple-objects interaction in video surveillance system. The proposal consists on locating a set of features in each video frame. Maxima regions from the second Eigen- value of the tensor matrix are used as features. Afterwards, statics features are discarded (labeling as background) and dynamic features are used to represent objects in motion (foreground). Dynamics features are dynamically clustered with k-neighborhood and EM algorithm. The centroid of each cluster locally represents motion objects, and its displacement through time is denoted by displacement of cumulus over several frames. The behavior of cumulus in time help us to model simple object interactions. These primitives can be used in addition to a causal dependencies across time; i.e. cluster division, cluster fusion and cluster motion with respect to the others, offer information of local dynamics which is referred to local interactions. And based on causal dependencies theory, a graph dependence of local centroids behavior can be built. This graph can represent the local interaction model. In experimental section, the approach is tested in several scenarios, extracting simple interaction objects in controlled/not-controlled scenarios.

  1. Sensitivity analyses for parametric causal mediation effect estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Jeffrey M; Wang, Wei

    2015-04-01

    Causal mediation analysis uses a potential outcomes framework to estimate the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome and its indirect effect through an intermediate variable (or mediator). Causal interpretations of these effects typically rely on sequential ignorability. Because this assumption is not empirically testable, it is important to conduct sensitivity analyses. Sensitivity analyses so far offered for this situation have either focused on the case where the outcome follows a linear model or involve nonparametric or semiparametric models. We propose alternative approaches that are suitable for responses following generalized linear models. The first approach uses a Gaussian copula model involving latent versions of the mediator and the final outcome. The second approach uses a so-called hybrid causal-observational model that extends the association model for the final outcome, providing a novel sensitivity parameter. These models, while still assuming a randomized exposure, allow for unobserved (as well as observed) mediator-outcome confounders that are not affected by exposure. The methods are applied to data from a study of the effect of mother education on dental caries in adolescence.

  2. 法律知识的因果表达和非单调推理模型%Causal Knowledge Representation and Nonmonotonic Reasoning Models in Law Consultant Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    干红华; 潘云鹤

    2001-01-01

    Causal reasoning is the most important feature in law consultant systems. This paper analy-ses the structure of law clauses,proposes a representation model for law knowledge in terms of causal relationships and nonmonotonic reasoning models based on it. These models are successfully applied in the implementation of NBU-CALA+ ,a law expert consultant system for case analysis and interpreta-tion.

  3. A Graphical Approach for Identifying Causal Relationship in Nonlinear Structural Vector Autoregressive Mo dels%非线性结构向量自回归模型因果关系的图模型辨识方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏岳嵩; 杜翠真

    2014-01-01

    确定变量间的因果关系是时间序列分析的重要内容。传统的图模型因果推断算法有着明显的局限性,要求模型是线性的且噪声项服从Gauss分布。本文利用图模型方法辨识非线性结构向量自回归模型变量间的因果关系,给出了一种基于互信息和条件互信息的非线性结构向量自回归因果图模型结构的非参数辨识方法。数值模拟结果验证了方法的有效性。%It is important to detect and clarify the cause-effect relationships among variables in time series analysis. Traditional graphical models causality inference methods have a salient limitation that the model must be linear and with Gaussian noise. In this paper, we apply the graphical models to infer the causal relationships a-mong variables of nonlinear structural vector autoregressive models. We propose a nonparametric method which employs both the mutual information and condi-tional mutual information to identify the causal structure of nonlinear structural vector autoregressive causal graph model. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

  4. The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe

    OpenAIRE

    Muyambiri, Brian; Chiwira, Oscar; Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Chiranga, Ngonidzashe

    2010-01-01

    The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1970 to 2007. Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration approach and VEC model are em...

  5. Times and Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Davidson, Russell

    2013-01-01

    The understanding of causal chains and mechanisms is an essential part of any scientific activity that aims at better explanation of its subject matter, and better understanding of it. While any account of causality requires that a cause should precede its effect, accounts of causality inphysics are complicated by the fact that the role of time in current theoretical physics has evolved very substantially throughout the twentieth century. In this article, I review the status of time and causa...

  6. Causal random geometry from stochastic quantization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambjørn, Jan; Loll, R.; Westra, W.;

    2010-01-01

     in this short note we review a recently found formulation of two-dimensional causal quantum gravity defined through Causal Dynamical Triangulations and stochastic quantization. This procedure enables one to extract the nonperturbative quantum Hamiltonian of the random surface model including the...... the sum over topologies. Interestingly, the generally fictitious stochastic time corresponds to proper time on the geometries...

  7. A closed-loop causal model of workload based on a comparison of fuzzy and crisp measurements techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moray, Neville; King, Barbara; Turksen, Burhan; Waterton, Keith

    1987-01-01

    Fuzzy and crisp measurements of workload are compared for a tracking task that varied in bandwidth and order of control. Fuzzy measures are as powerful as crisp measures, and can under certain conditions give extra insights into workload causality. Both methods suggest that workload arises in a system in which effort, performance, difficulty, and task variables are linked in a closed loop. Marked individual differences were found. Future work on the fuzzy measurement of workload is justified.

  8. HEDR modeling approach: Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a revision of the previous Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project modeling approach report. This revised report describes the methods used in performing scoping studies and estimating final radiation doses to real and representative individuals who lived in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. The scoping studies and dose estimates pertain to various environmental pathways during various periods of time. The original report discussed the concepts under consideration in 1991. The methods for estimating dose have been refined as understanding of existing data, the scope of pathways, and the magnitudes of dose estimates were evaluated through scoping studies

  9. Causality and Nonlocality as Axioms for Quantum Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, Sandu; Rohrlich, Daniel

    1997-01-01

    Quantum mechanics permits nonlocality - both nonlocal correlations and nonlocal equations of motion - while respecting relativistic causality. Is quantum mechanics the unique theory that reconciles nonlocality and causality? We consider two models, going beyond quantum mechanics, of nonlocality: "superquantum" correlations, and nonlocal "jamming" of correlations. These models are consistent with some definitions of nonlocality and causality.

  10. Causal Behaviour on Carter spacetime

    CERN Document Server

    Blanco, Oihane F

    2015-01-01

    In this work we will focus on the causal character of Carter Spacetime (see B. Carter, Causal structure in space-time, Gen. Rel. Grav. 1 4 337-406, 1971). The importance of this spacetime is the following: for the causally best well behaved spacetimes (the globally hyperbolic ones), there are several characterizations or alternative definitions. In some cases, it has been shown that some of the causal properties required in these characterizations can be weakened. But Carter spacetime provides a counterexample for an impossible relaxation in one of them. We studied the possibility of Carter spacetime to be a counterexample for impossible lessening in another characterization, based on the previous results. In particular, we will prove that the time-separation or Lorentzian distance between two chosen points in Carter spacetime is infinite. Although this spacetime turned out not to be the counterexample we were looking for, the found result is interesting per se and provides ideas for alternate approaches to t...

  11. The Causal Effects of Father Absence

    OpenAIRE

    McLanahan, Sara; TACH, LAURA; Schneider, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The literature on father absence is frequently criticized for its use of cross-sectional data and methods that fail to take account of possible omitted variable bias and reverse causality. We review studies that have responded to this critique by employing a variety of innovative research designs to identify the causal effect of father absence, including studies using lagged dependent variable models, growth curve models, individual fixed effects models, sibling fixed effects models, natural ...

  12. On the spectral dimension of causal triangulations

    CERN Document Server

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur; Wheater, John F

    2009-01-01

    We introduce an ensemble of infinite causal triangulations, called the uniform infinite causal triangulation, and show that it is equivalent to an ensemble of infinite trees, the uniform infinite planar tree. It is proved that in both cases the Hausdorff dimension almost surely equals 2. The infinite causal triangulations are shown to be almost surely recurrent or, equivalently, their spectral dimension is almost surely less than or equal to 2. We also establish that for certain reduced versions of the infinite causal triangulations the spectral dimension equals 2 both for the ensemble average and almost surely. The triangulation ensemble we consider is equivalent to the causal dynamical triangulation model of two-dimensional quantum gravity and therefore our results apply to that model.

  13. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athey, Susan; Imbens, Guido

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we propose methods for estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental and observational studies and for conducting hypothesis tests about the magnitude of differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. We provide a data-driven approach to partition the data into subpopulations that differ in the magnitude of their treatment effects. The approach enables the construction of valid confidence intervals for treatment effects, even with many covariates relative to the sample size, and without "sparsity" assumptions. We propose an "honest" approach to estimation, whereby one sample is used to construct the partition and another to estimate treatment effects for each subpopulation. Our approach builds on regression tree methods, modified to optimize for goodness of fit in treatment effects and to account for honest estimation. Our model selection criterion anticipates that bias will be eliminated by honest estimation and also accounts for the effect of making additional splits on the variance of treatment effect estimates within each subpopulation. We address the challenge that the "ground truth" for a causal effect is not observed for any individual unit, so that standard approaches to cross-validation must be modified. Through a simulation study, we show that for our preferred method honest estimation results in nominal coverage for 90% confidence intervals, whereas coverage ranges between 74% and 84% for nonhonest approaches. Honest estimation requires estimating the model with a smaller sample size; the cost in terms of mean squared error of treatment effects for our preferred method ranges between 7-22%. PMID:27382149

  14. Causality problem in Economic Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOSÉ LUIS RETOLAZA

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The main point of the paper is the problem of the economy to be consider like a science in the most strict term of the concept. In the first step we are going to tackle a presentation about what we understand by science to subsequently present some of the fallacies which have bring certain scepticism about the scientific character of the investigation in economy, to know: 1 The differences between hard and weak sciences -physics and social; 2 The differences between paradigm, —positivist and phenomenological— 3 The differences between physic causalityand historic causality. In the second step we are going to talk about two fundamental problems which are questioned: 1 the confusion between ontology and gnoseology and, 2 the erroneous concept of causality that commonly is used. In the last step of the paper we are going over the recent models of «causal explanation» and we suggest the probabilistic casualty development next with a more elaborated models of causal explanation, like a way to conjugate the scientific severity with the possibility to tackle complex economic realities.

  15. Dynamics of safety performance and culture: a group model building approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Yang Miang; Love, Peter E D; Stagbouer, Greg; Annesley, Chris

    2012-09-01

    The management of occupational health and safety (OHS) including safety culture interventions is comprised of complex problems that are often hard to scope and define. Due to the dynamic nature and complexity of OHS management, the concept of system dynamics (SD) is used to analyze accident prevention. In this paper, a system dynamics group model building (GMB) approach is used to create a causal loop diagram of the underlying factors influencing the OHS performance of a major drilling and mining contractor in Australia. While the organization has invested considerable resources into OHS their disabling injury frequency rate (DIFR) has not been decreasing. With this in mind, rich individualistic knowledge about the dynamics influencing the DIFR was acquired from experienced employees with operations, health and safety and training background using a GMB workshop. Findings derived from the workshop were used to develop a series of causal loop diagrams that includes a wide range of dynamics that can assist in better understanding the causal influences OHS performance. The causal loop diagram provides a tool for organizations to hypothesize the dynamics influencing effectiveness of OHS management, particularly the impact on DIFR. In addition the paper demonstrates that the SD GMB approach has significant potential in understanding and improving OHS management.

  16. Modeling Approaches in Planetary Seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Renee; Knapmeyer, Martin; Panning, Mark; Schmerr, Nick

    2014-01-01

    Of the many geophysical means that can be used to probe a planet's interior, seismology remains the most direct. Given that the seismic data gathered on the Moon over 40 years ago revolutionized our understanding of the Moon and are still being used today to produce new insight into the state of the lunar interior, it is no wonder that many future missions, both real and conceptual, plan to take seismometers to other planets. To best facilitate the return of high-quality data from these instruments, as well as to further our understanding of the dynamic processes that modify a planet's interior, various modeling approaches are used to quantify parameters such as the amount and distribution of seismicity, tidal deformation, and seismic structure on and of the terrestrial planets. In addition, recent advances in wavefield modeling have permitted a renewed look at seismic energy transmission and the effects of attenuation and scattering, as well as the presence and effect of a core, on recorded seismograms. In this chapter, we will review these approaches.

  17. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  18. Integration of disease association and eQTL data using a Bayesian colocalisation approach highlights six candidate causal genes in immune-mediated diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hui; Fortune, Mary D; Burren, Oliver S; Schofield, Ellen; Todd, John A; Wallace, Chris

    2015-06-15

    The genes and cells that mediate genetic associations identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are only partially understood. Several studies that have investigated the genetic regulation of gene expression have shown that disease-associated variants are over-represented amongst expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) variants. Evidence for colocalisation of eQTL and disease causal variants can suggest causal genes and cells for these genetic associations. Here, we used colocalisation analysis to investigate whether 595 genetic associations to ten immune-mediated diseases are consistent with a causal variant that regulates, in cis, gene expression in resting B cells, and in resting and stimulated monocytes. Previously published candidate causal genes were over-represented amongst genes exhibiting colocalisation (odds ratio > 1.5), and we identified evidence for colocalisation (posterior odds > 5) between cis eQTLs in at least one cell type and at least one disease for six genes: ADAM15, RGS1, CARD9, LTBR, CTSH and SYNGR1. We identified cell-specific effects, such as for CTSH, the expression of which in monocytes, but not in B cells, may mediate type 1 diabetes and narcolepsy associations in the chromosome 15q25.1 region. Our results demonstrate the utility of integrating genetic studies of disease and gene expression for highlighting causal genes and cell types. PMID:25743184

  19. Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazlioglu, Saban, E-mail: snazlioglu@pau.edu.tr [Department of Econometrics, Pamukkale University, Denizli (Turkey); Lebe, Fuat, E-mail: fuat.lebe@bozok.edu.tr [Department of Economics, Bozok University, Yozgat (Turkey); Kayhan, Selim, E-mail: selim.kayhan@bozok.edu.tr [Department of Economics, Bozok University, Yozgat (Turkey)

    2011-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to determine the direction causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries. The empirical model that includes capital and labor force as the control variables is estimated for the panel of fourteen OECD countries during the period 1980-2007. Apart from the previous studies in the nuclear energy consumption and economic growth relationship, this study utilizes the novel panel causality approach, which allows both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The findings show that there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in eleven out of fourteen cases, supporting the neutrality hypothesis. As a sensitivity analysis, we also conduct Toda-Yamamoto time series causality method and find out that the results from the panel causality analysis are slightly different than those from the time-series causality analysis. Thereby, we can conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analyzing the nature of causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth may play a key role for policy implications. - Highlights: > Causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is examined for OECD countries. > Panel causality method, which allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity, is utilized. > The neutrality hypothesis is supported.

  20. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours...... to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

  1. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  2. Causality in physiological signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Andreas; Kraemer, Jan F; Penzel, Thomas; Bonnemeier, Hendrik; Kurths, Jürgen; Wessel, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Health is one of the most important non-material assets and thus also has an enormous influence on material values, since treating and preventing diseases is expensive. The number one cause of death worldwide today originates in cardiovascular diseases. For these reasons the aim of understanding the functions and the interactions of the cardiovascular system is and has been a major research topic throughout various disciplines for more than a hundred years. The purpose of most of today's research is to get as much information as possible with the lowest possible effort and the least discomfort for the subject or patient, e.g. via non-invasive measurements. A family of tools whose importance has been growing during the last years is known under the headline of coupling measures. The rationale for this kind of analysis is to identify the structure of interactions in a system of multiple components. Important information lies for example in the coupling direction, the coupling strength, and occurring time lags. In this work, we will, after a brief general introduction covering the development of cardiovascular time series analysis, introduce, explain and review some of the most important coupling measures and classify them according to their origin and capabilities in the light of physiological analyses. We will begin with classical correlation measures, go via Granger-causality-based tools, entropy-based techniques (e.g. momentary information transfer), nonlinear prediction measures (e.g. mutual prediction) to symbolic dynamics (e.g. symbolic coupling traces). All these methods have contributed important insights into physiological interactions like cardiorespiratory coupling, neuro-cardio-coupling and many more. Furthermore, we will cover tools to detect and analyze synchronization and coordination (e.g. synchrogram and coordigram). As a last point we will address time dependent couplings as identified using a recent approach employing ensembles of time series. The

  3. On the spectral formulation of Granger causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicharro, D

    2011-12-01

    Spectral measures of causality are used to explore the role of different rhythms in the causal connectivity between brain regions. We study several spectral measures related to Granger causality, comprising the bivariate and conditional Geweke measures, the directed transfer function, and the partial directed coherence. We derive the formulation of dependence and causality in the spectral domain from the more general formulation in the information-theory framework. We argue that the transfer entropy, the most general measure derived from the concept of Granger causality, lacks a spectral representation in terms of only the processes associated with the recorded signals. For all the spectral measures we show how they are related to mutual information rates when explicitly considering the parametric autoregressive representation of the processes. In this way we express the conditional Geweke spectral measure in terms of a multiple coherence involving innovation variables inherent to the autoregressive representation. We also link partial directed coherence with Sims' criterion of causality. Given our results, we discuss the causal interpretation of the spectral measures related to Granger causality and stress the necessity to explicitly consider their specific formulation based on modeling the signals as linear Gaussian stationary autoregressive processes.

  4. Intrinsic Universality of Causal Graph Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Martiel

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Causal graph dynamics are transformations over graphs that capture two important symmetries of physics, namely causality and homogeneity. They can be equivalently defined as continuous and translation invariant transformations or functions induced by a local rule applied simultaneously on every vertex of the graph. Intrinsic universality is the ability of an instance of a model to simulate every other instance of the model while preserving the structure of the computation at every step of the simulation. In this work we present the construction of a family of intrinsically universal instances of causal graphs dynamics, each instance being able to simulate a subset of instances.

  5. How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

  6. Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Jakob

    2015-12-01

    Measures of information transfer have become a popular approach to analyze interactions in complex systems such as the Earth or the human brain from measured time series. Recent work has focused on causal definitions of information transfer aimed at decompositions of predictive information about a target variable, while excluding effects of common drivers and indirect influences. While common drivers clearly constitute a spurious causality, the aim of the present article is to develop measures quantifying different notions of the strength of information transfer along indirect causal paths, based on first reconstructing the multivariate causal network. Another class of novel measures quantifies to what extent different intermediate processes on causal paths contribute to an interaction mechanism to determine pathways of causal information transfer. The proposed framework complements predictive decomposition schemes by focusing more on the interaction mechanism between multiple processes. A rigorous mathematical framework allows for a clear information-theoretic interpretation that can also be related to the underlying dynamics as proven for certain classes of processes. Generally, however, estimates of information transfer remain hard to interpret for nonlinearly intertwined complex systems. But if experiments or mathematical models are not available, then measuring pathways of information transfer within the causal dependency structure allows at least for an abstraction of the dynamics. The measures are illustrated on a climatological example to disentangle pathways of atmospheric flow over Europe.

  7. Trimmed Granger causality between two groups of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Ying-Chao; Tseng, Neng-Fang; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2014-01-01

    The identification of causal effects between two groups of time series has been an important topic in a wide range of applications such as economics, engineering, medicine, neuroscience, and biology. In this paper, a simplified causal relationship (called trimmed Granger causality) based on the context of Granger causality and vector autoregressive (VAR) model is introduced. The idea is to characterize a subset of “important variables” for both groups of time series so that the underlying cau...

  8. Internal modeling of upcoming speech: A causal role of the right posterior cerebellum in non-motor aspects of language production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnqvist, Elin; Bonnard, Mireille; Gauvin, Hanna S; Attarian, Shahram; Trébuchon, Agnès; Hartsuiker, Robert J; Alario, F-Xavier

    2016-08-01

    Some language processing theories propose that, just as for other somatic actions, self-monitoring of language production is achieved through internal modeling. The cerebellum is the proposed center of such internal modeling in motor control, and the right cerebellum has been linked to an increasing number of language functions, including predictive processing during comprehension. Relating these findings, we tested whether the right posterior cerebellum has a causal role for self-monitoring of speech errors. Participants received 1 Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation during 15 min to lobules Crus I and II in the right hemisphere, and, in counterbalanced orders, to the contralateral area in the left cerebellar hemisphere (control) in order to induce a temporary inactivation of one of these zones. Immediately afterwards, they engaged in a speech production task priming the production of speech errors. Language production was impaired after right compared to left hemisphere stimulation, a finding that provides evidence for a causal role of the cerebellum during language production. We interpreted this role in terms of internal modeling of upcoming speech through a verbal working memory process used to prevent errors.

  9. Internal modeling of upcoming speech: A causal role of the right posterior cerebellum in non-motor aspects of language production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnqvist, Elin; Bonnard, Mireille; Gauvin, Hanna S; Attarian, Shahram; Trébuchon, Agnès; Hartsuiker, Robert J; Alario, F-Xavier

    2016-08-01

    Some language processing theories propose that, just as for other somatic actions, self-monitoring of language production is achieved through internal modeling. The cerebellum is the proposed center of such internal modeling in motor control, and the right cerebellum has been linked to an increasing number of language functions, including predictive processing during comprehension. Relating these findings, we tested whether the right posterior cerebellum has a causal role for self-monitoring of speech errors. Participants received 1 Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation during 15 min to lobules Crus I and II in the right hemisphere, and, in counterbalanced orders, to the contralateral area in the left cerebellar hemisphere (control) in order to induce a temporary inactivation of one of these zones. Immediately afterwards, they engaged in a speech production task priming the production of speech errors. Language production was impaired after right compared to left hemisphere stimulation, a finding that provides evidence for a causal role of the cerebellum during language production. We interpreted this role in terms of internal modeling of upcoming speech through a verbal working memory process used to prevent errors. PMID:27249802

  10. Causal Newton Gravity Law

    CERN Document Server

    Zinoviev, Yury M

    2012-01-01

    The equations of the relativistic causal Newton gravity law for the planets of the solar system are studied in the approximation when the Sun rests at the coordinates origin and the planets do not iteract between each other.

  11. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    OpenAIRE

    York eHagmayer; Neele eEngelmann

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic...

  12. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    OpenAIRE

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic lite...

  13. A Structural Equation Approach to Models with Spatial Dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

    2008-01-01

    We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it poss

  14. A structural equation approach to models with spatial dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

    2008-01-01

    We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it poss

  15. Locally Causal Dynamical Triangulations in Two Dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Loll, Renate

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the universal properties of a new two-dimensional quantum gravity model defined in terms of Locally Causal Dynamical Triangulations (LCDT). Measuring the Hausdorff and spectral dimensions of the dynamical geometrical ensemble, we find numerical evidence that the continuum limit of the model lies in a new universality class of two-dimensional quantum gravity theories, inequivalent to both Euclidean and Causal Dynamical Triangulations.

  16. Quantum Causal Graph Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Consider a graph having quantum systems lying at each node. Suppose that the whole thing evolves in discrete time steps, according to a global, unitary causal operator. By causal we mean that information can only propagate at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. Suppose, moreover, that the graph itself is subject to the evolution, and may be driven to be in a quantum superposition of graphs---in accordance to the superposition principle. We show that these unitary causal operators must decompose as a finite-depth circuit of local unitary gates. This unifies a result on Quantum Cellular Automata with another on Reversible Causal Graph Dynamics. Along the way we formalize a notion of causality which is valid in the context of quantum superpositions of time-varying graphs, and has a number of good properties. Keywords: Quantum Lattice Gas Automata, Block-representation, Curtis-Hedlund-Lyndon, No-signalling, Localizability, Quantum Gravity, Quantum Graphity, Causal Dynamical Triangula...

  17. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  18. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M.; Heiser, Laura M.; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K.; Carlin, Daniel E.; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O.; Wong, Chris K.; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V.; Favorov, Alexander V.; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W.; Long, Byron L.; Noren, David P.; Bisberg, Alexander J.; Mills, Gordon B.; Gray, Joe W.; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A.; Fertig, Elana J.; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M.; Spellman, Paul T.; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-01-01

    Inferring molecular networks is a central challenge in computational biology. However, it has remained unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships can be effectively inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge that focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results constitute the most comprehensive assessment of causal network inference in a mammalian setting carried out to date and suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess the causal validity of inferred molecular networks. PMID:26901648

  19. Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

    2007-02-01

    Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach. PMID:18453457

  20. Breaking the arrows of causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valsiner, Jaan

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical models of catalysis have proven to bring with them major breakthroughs in chemistry and biology, from the 1830s onward. It can be argued that the scientific status of chemistry has become established through the move from causal to catalytic models. Likewise, the central explanatory...... role of cyclical models in biology has made it possible to move from the idea of genetic determination to that of epigenetic negotiation as the core of biological theory. In psychology, catalytic thinking has been outside of the realm of accepted scientific schemes, as the axiomatic dependence upon the...

  1. Model Mapping Approach Based on Ontology Semantics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinkui Hou

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The mapping relations between different models are the foundation for model transformation in model-driven software development. On the basis of ontology semantics, model mappings between different levels are classified by using structural semantics of modeling languages. The general definition process for mapping relations is explored, and the principles of structure mapping are proposed subsequently. The approach is further illustrated by the mapping relations from class model of object oriented modeling language to the C programming codes. The application research shows that the approach provides a theoretical guidance for the realization of model mapping, and thus can make an effective support to model-driven software development

  2. Causality and the Doppler Peaks

    OpenAIRE

    Turok, Neil

    1996-01-01

    Could cosmic structure have formed by the action of causal physics within the standard hot big bang, or was a prior period of inflation required? Recently there has been some discussion of whether causal sources could reproduce the pattern of Doppler peaks of the standard scale-invariant adiabatic theory. This paper gives a rigorous definition of causality, and a causal decomposition of a general source. I present an example of a simple causal source which mimics the standard adiabatic theory...

  3. 人因可靠性分析中的概率因果模型%Probabilistic causal model of human reliability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高文宇; 张力

    2011-01-01

    根据人因失误的机理和特点提出了一个分层的人因可靠性概率因果模型,采用贝叶斯网建立了人因可靠性影响因素之间的因果关系.采用分层方法进行建模,充分利用了条件独立性以降低模型的复杂度,同时分层机制也符合人因可靠性的内在要求.该模型既能满足回溯型分析需求又能满足预测型分析需求.在模型的定量化方面,设计了一个简化可行的模型参数计算方法.该模型可以用于工程化的人因可靠性分析,也可扩展为人因行为理论研究模型.%A proper causal model of human reliability analysis helps to account for human response behavior and lead to a more effective quantitative analysis. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical causal model of human reliability in accordance with the underlying reasons of human errors, with Bayesian network being used to build the causal link of all the different factors. And, then, with the hierarchical structure adopted in the model, the factors in each level would be only affected by the factors belonging to the upper levels. In addition, since the hierarchical structure may contribute more to a clear and simplified relationship between the behavior influence factors. Specifically speaking, human reliability is supposed to be affected by some inherent factors, though such inherent factors may also be affected by some external factors. However, the external factors of different groups may prove to be independent of each other. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the computational load greatly. In the above model we have initiated, human inherent factors may include confidence and responsibility, knowledge and experience, psychological stress and working load, fatigue and so on. While confidence and responsibility are usually influenced by such external factors as safety culture, organizational management, and team collaboration, knowledge and experience may be influenced by each one' s

  4. Identification Structural Vector Autoregressive Causal Graphical Models by Information Theory Criteria%结构向量自回归模型因果图的信息论辨识方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏岳嵩; 田铮; 肖艳婷

    2012-01-01

    Detecting the causal relationships among variables is an important content of time series analysis. In this paper, the causal relationships among variables of structural vector autoregressive model are studied using graphical models, time series causal graph is presented and the structural identification problem of the causal graph is investigated. A three-step procedure is developed to orient the causal direction based on the information theory criteria. The mutual informations and the conditional mutual informations are estimated by the correlation integral. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to identify the causal structure of causal graph of structural vector autoregressive model very effectively.%由观测数据确定变量间的因果关系是时间序列分析的重要内容.本文利用图模型方法研究结构向量自回归模型变量间的因果关系,通过时间序列因果图的建立将问题转化为时间序列因果图结构的辨识.基于信息论方法提出了因果性定向的三步准则,利用关联积分估计互信息和条件互信息.模拟结果显示本方法能更有效地辨识结构向量自回归模型因果图的因果结构.

  5. Causal graph dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    We generalize the theory of Cellular Automata to arbitrary, time-varying graphs. In other words we formalize, and prove theorems about, the intuitive idea of a labelled graph which evolves in time - but under the natural constraint that information can only ever be transmitted at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. The notion of translation-invariance is also generalized. The definition we provide for these `causal graph dynamics' is simple and axiomatic. The theorems we provide also show that it is robust. For instance, causal graph dynamics are stable under composition and under restriction to radius one. In the finite case some fundamental facts of Cellular Automata theory carry through: causal graph dynamics admit a characterization as continuous functions and they are stable under inversion. The provided examples suggest a wide range of applications of this mathematical object, from complex systems science to theoretical physics. Keywords: Dynamical networks, Boolean network...

  6. Complementarity, causality, and explanation

    CERN Document Server

    Losee, John

    2013-01-01

    Prior to the work of Niels Bohr, discussions on the relationship of cause and effect presupposed that successful causal attribution implies explanation. The success of quantum theory challenged this presupposition. In this succinct review of the history of these discussions, John Losee presents the philosophical background of debates over the cause-effect relation. He reviews the positions of Aristotle, René Descartes, Isaac Newton, David Hume, Immanuel Kant, and John Stuart Mill. He shows how nineteenth-century theories in physics and chemistry were informed by a dominant theory of causality

  7. Geometrical approach to fluid models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuvshinov, B. N.; Schep, T. J.

    1997-01-01

    Differential geometry based upon the Cartan calculus of differential forms is applied to investigate invariant properties of equations that describe the motion of continuous media. The main feature of this approach is that physical quantities are treated as geometrical objects. The geometrical notio

  8. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  9. Uncertainty, causality and decision: The case of social risks and nuclear risk in particular

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probability and causality are two indispensable tools for addressing situations of social risk. Causal relations are the foundation for building risk assessment models and identifying risk prevention, mitigation and compensation measures. Probability enables us to quantify risk assessments and to calibrate intervention measures. It therefore seems not only natural, but also necessary to make the role of causality and probability explicit in the definition of decision problems in situations of social risk. Such is the aim of this thesis.By reviewing the terminology of risk and the logic of public interventions in various fields of social risk, we gain a better understanding of the notion and of the issues that one faces when trying to model it. We further elaborate our analysis in the case of nuclear safety, examining in detail how methods and policies have been developed in this field and how they have evolved through time. This leads to a number of observations concerning risk and safety assessments.Generalising the concept of intervention in a Bayesian network allows us to develop a variety of causal Bayesian networks adapted to our needs. In this framework, we propose a definition of risk which seems to be relevant for a broad range of issues. We then offer simple applications of our model to specific aspects of the Fukushima accident and other nuclear safety problems. In addition to specific lessons, the analysis leads to the conclusion that a systematic approach for identifying uncertainties is needed in this area. When applied to decision theory, our tool evolves into a dynamic decision model in which acts cause consequences and are causally interconnected. The model provides a causal interpretation of Savage's conceptual framework, solves some of its paradoxes and clarifies certain aspects. It leads us to considering uncertainty with regard to a problem's causal structure as the source of ambiguity in decision-making, an interpretation which corresponds to a

  10. 顶点赋权图分析法在沼气工程系统中的应用研究%Application of vertex weighted causal loop diagram analysis approach in biogas engineering system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙伟; 邵国青; 刘茂军; 武昱孜; 张旭; 华利忠

    2013-01-01

    利用顶点赋权反馈图分析法分析江苏某猪场沼气系统工程的效益,并建立猪场排泄物无污染的仿真学模型.根据2011年江苏某猪场与年猪粪尿和沼气效益有关的顶点赋权反馈图对其中的权值进行量化,采用量化结果和农户液化气消耗情况及耕地面积,建立猪场排泄物无污染的仿真学模型.结果表明:2011年该系统中含有3条正反馈环(沼气能源效益正反馈环、施肥面积正反馈环和沼渣效益正反馈环)及2条负反馈环(沼气浪费负反馈环和沼肥浪费负反馈环).建立了两套排泄物无污染的仿真学模型的调整方案:一是在平均存栏量(1728头)不变的情况下与168户农户建立输气管道,供农户使用;二是按比例扩大规模至3721头,并建立与周边所有361户农户的输气管道,进一步健全沼液灌溉渠,扩大沼液灌溉面积.%The benefit using biogas engineering system in a pig farm in Jiangsu Province was analyzed with vertex weighted causal loop diagram analysis approach after and a simulation model was established to solve the problem of pollution.According to the vertex weighted causal loop diagram analysis related to annual pig feces and biogas benefit of a pig farm in Jiangsu Province in 2011,the weightings related to the diagram were calculated.Using the results of weightings,the agricultural acreage and the liquefied gas consumption,the simulation model was established.The results showed that there were three positive feedback loops including the biogas benefit,fertilized area and benefit of biogas residues,and two negative feedback loops which were biogas waste and biogas manure waste in the system in 2011.The adjustment schemes of two simulation models were established to solve the problem of pollution:one was to build gas pipeline with 168 households if the amount of livestock (1728) was not changed,the other one was to build gas pipeline with 361 households if the amount of livestock increased

  11. Causal inference and the data-fusion problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bareinboim, Elias; Pearl, Judea

    2016-07-01

    We review concepts, principles, and tools that unify current approaches to causal analysis and attend to new challenges presented by big data. In particular, we address the problem of data fusion-piecing together multiple datasets collected under heterogeneous conditions (i.e., different populations, regimes, and sampling methods) to obtain valid answers to queries of interest. The availability of multiple heterogeneous datasets presents new opportunities to big data analysts, because the knowledge that can be acquired from combined data would not be possible from any individual source alone. However, the biases that emerge in heterogeneous environments require new analytical tools. Some of these biases, including confounding, sampling selection, and cross-population biases, have been addressed in isolation, largely in restricted parametric models. We here present a general, nonparametric framework for handling these biases and, ultimately, a theoretical solution to the problem of data fusion in causal inference tasks. PMID:27382148

  12. Understanding Causal Coherence Relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, G.

    2008-01-01

    The research reported in this dissertation focuses on the cognitive processes and representations involved in understanding causal coherence relations in text. Coherence relations are the meaning relations between the information units in the text, such as Cause-Consequence. These relations can be m

  13. Foreign direct investment and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    SUNDE, Tafirenyika

    2016-01-01

    The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causa...

  14. Learning Actions Models: Qualitative Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolander, Thomas; Gierasimczuk, Nina

    2015-01-01

    identifiability (conclusively inferring the appropriate action model in finite time) and identifiability in the limit (inconclusive convergence to the right action model). We show that deterministic actions are finitely identifiable, while non-deterministic actions require more learning power......—they are identifiable in the limit.We then move on to a particular learning method, which proceeds via restriction of a space of events within a learning-specific action model. This way of learning closely resembles the well-known update method from dynamic epistemic logic. We introduce several different learning...

  15. A Unified Approach to Modeling and Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Lehrmann; Møller-Pedersen, Birger

    2010-01-01

    SIMULA was a language for modeling and programming and provided a unied approach to modeling and programming in contrast to methodologies based on structured analysis and design. The current development seems to be going in the direction of separation of modeling and programming. The goal...... of this paper is to go back to the future and get inspiration from SIMULA and propose a unied approach. In addition to reintroducing the contributions of SIMULA and the Scandinavian approach to object-oriented programming, we do this by discussing a number of issues in modeling and programming and argue3 why we...

  16. [Effective connectivity within the default mode network modulated by methylphenidate using dynamic causal modeling on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Fang-Fang; Han, Lu; He, Hong-Jian; Zhu, Yi-Hong; Zhong, Jian-Hui

    2016-06-25

    The effective connectivity of default mode network (DMN) and its change after taking methylphenidate (MPH) were investigated in this study based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was applied to compare the effective connectivity between the conditions of taking MPH and placebo for 18 healthy male volunteers. Started with the network structural basis provided by a recent literature, endogenous low frequency fluctuation signals (0.01-0.08 Hz) of each node of DMN were taken as the driving input, and thirty-two possible models were designed according to the modulation effect of MPH on different connections between nodes. Model fitting and Bayesian model selection were performed to find the winning model and corresponding parameters. Our results indicated that the effective connectivity from medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) to posterior cingulated cortex (PCC), from left/right inferior parietal lobule (L/RIPL) to MPFC, and from RIPL to PCC were excitatory, whereas the connectivity from LIPL to PCC was inhibitory. Further t-test statistics on connectivity parameters found that MPH significantly reduced the link from RIPL to MPFC in DMN (t = 2.724, P = 0.016) and changed the weak excitatory state to inhibitory state. However, it had no significant effect on other connections. In all, our results demonstrated that MPH modulates the effective connectivity within DMN in resting state. PMID:27350198

  17. Random Effects Cox Models: A Poisson Modelling Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Renjun Ma; Daniel Krewski; Burnett, Richard T.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a Poisson modelling approach to random effects Cox proportional hazards models. Specifically we describe methods of statistical inference for a class of random effects Cox models which accommodate a wide range of nested random effects distributions. The orthodox BLUP approach to random effects Poisson modeling techniques enables us to study this new class of models as a single class, rather than as a collection of unrelated models. The explicit expressions for the random effects gi...

  18. Impaired prefrontal-amygdala effective connectivity is responsible for the dysfunction of emotion process in major depressive disorder: a dynamic causal modeling study on MEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Qing; Li, Haoran; Luo, Guoping; Wang, Yi; Tang, Hao; Han, Li; Yao, Zhijian

    2012-08-15

    Depression is proved to be associated with the dysfunction of prefrontal-limbic neural circuit, especially during emotion processing procedure. Related explorations have been undertaken from the aspects of abnormal activation and functional connectivity. However, the mechanism of the dysfunction of coordinated interactions remains unknown and is still a matter of debate. The present study gave direct evidence of this issue from the aspect of effective connectivity via dynamic causal modeling (DCM). 20 major depressive disorder (MDD) patients and 20 healthy controls were recruited to attend facial emotional stimulus during MEG recording. Bayesian model selection (BMS) was applied to choose the best model. Results under the optimal model showed that top-down endogenous effective connectivity from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to the amygdala was greatly impaired in patients relative to health controls; while bottom-up endogenous effective connectivity from the amygdala to the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) as well as modulatory effective connectivity from ACC to DLPFC was significantly increased. We inferred the incapable DLPFC failed to exert influence on amygdala, and finally lead to enhanced amygdala-ACC and ACC-DLPFC bottom-up effects. Such impaired prefrontal-amygdala connectivity was supposed to be responsible for the dysfunction in MDD when dealing with emotional stimuli.

  19. Matrix model approach to cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, A.; Lu, Lei; Stern, A.

    2016-03-01

    We perform a systematic search for rotationally invariant cosmological solutions to toy matrix models. These models correspond to the bosonic sector of Lorentzian Ishibashi, Kawai, Kitazawa and Tsuchiya (IKKT)-type matrix models in dimensions d less than ten, specifically d =3 and d =5 . After taking a continuum (or commutative) limit they yield d -1 dimensional Poisson manifolds. The manifolds have a Lorentzian induced metric which can be associated with closed, open, or static space-times. For d =3 , we obtain recursion relations from which it is possible to generate rotationally invariant matrix solutions which yield open universes in the continuum limit. Specific examples of matrix solutions have also been found which are associated with closed and static two-dimensional space-times in the continuum limit. The solutions provide for a resolution of cosmological singularities, at least within the context of the toy matrix models. The commutative limit reveals other desirable features, such as a solution describing a smooth transition from an initial inflation to a noninflationary era. Many of the d =3 solutions have analogues in higher dimensions. The case of d =5 , in particular, has the potential for yielding realistic four-dimensional cosmologies in the continuum limit. We find four-dimensional de Sitter d S4 or anti-de Sitter AdS4 solutions when a totally antisymmetric term is included in the matrix action. A nontrivial Poisson structure is attached to these manifolds which represents the lowest order effect of noncommutativity. For the case of AdS4 , we find one particular limit where the lowest order noncommutativity vanishes at the boundary, but not in the interior.

  20. Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent for Gaussian variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B; Seth, Anil K

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  1. Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent for Gaussian variables

    CERN Document Server

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil

    2009-01-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. It has always seemed plausible that the two concepts ought to be related. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  2. Causality and Time in Historical Institutionalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahoney, James; Mohamedali, Khairunnisa; Nguyen, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    This chapter explores the dual concern with causality and time in historical institutionalism using a graphical approach. The analysis focuses on three concepts that are central to this field: critical junctures, gradual change, and path dependence. The analysis makes explicit and formal the logic...

  3. Chemogenetic approach to model hypofrontality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Ike Dela; Shi, Wei-Xing

    2016-08-01

    Clinical evidence suggests that the prefrontal cortex (PFC) is hypofunctional in disorders including schizophrenia, drug addiction, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In schizophrenia, hypofrontality has been further suggested to cause both the negative and cognitive symptoms, and overactivity of dopamine neurons that project to subcortical areas. The latter may contribute to the development of positive symptoms of the disorder. Nevertheless, what causes hypofrontality and how it alters dopamine transmission in subcortical structures remain unclear due, in part, to the difficulty in modeling hypofrontality using previous techniques (e.g. PFC lesioning, focal cooling, repeated treatment with psychotomimetic drugs). We propose that the use of designer receptors exclusively activated by designer drugs (DREADDs) chemogenetic technique will allow precise interrogations of PFC functions. Combined with electrophysiological recordings, we can investigate the effects of PFC hypofunction on activity of dopamine neurons. Importantly, from a drug target discovery perspective, the use of DREADDs will enable us to examine whether chemogenetically enhancing PFC activity will reverse the behavioral abnormalities associated with PFC hypofunction and dopamine neuron overactivity, and also explore druggable targets for the treatment of schizophrenia and other disorders associated with abnormalities via modulation of the G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway. In conclusion, the use of the DREADDs technique has several advantages over other previously employed strategies to simulate PFC hypofunction not only in terms of disease modeling but also from the viewpoint of drug target discovery. PMID:27372868

  4. Current approaches to gene regulatory network modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brazma Alvis

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many different approaches have been developed to model and simulate gene regulatory networks. We proposed the following categories for gene regulatory network models: network parts lists, network topology models, network control logic models, and dynamic models. Here we will describe some examples for each of these categories. We will study the topology of gene regulatory networks in yeast in more detail, comparing a direct network derived from transcription factor binding data and an indirect network derived from genome-wide expression data in mutants. Regarding the network dynamics we briefly describe discrete and continuous approaches to network modelling, then describe a hybrid model called Finite State Linear Model and demonstrate that some simple network dynamics can be simulated in this model.

  5. Context, causality, and appreciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie

    2013-04-01

    I applaud and elaborate on the contextualism at the heart of Bullot & Reber's (B&R's) theory, challenge two aspects of the appreciative structure they posit (the causal reasoning that allegedly underlies the design stance and the segregation of the component stages), suggest that expert and novice appreciators operate differently, and question the degree to which B&R's final theory is open to empirical investigation. PMID:23507111

  6. Identifying effective connectivity parameters in simulated fMRI: a direct comparison of switching linear dynamic system, stochastic dynamic causal, and multivariate autoregressive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason F.; Chen, Kewei; Pillai, Ajay S.; Horwitz, Barry

    2013-01-01

    The number and variety of connectivity estimation methods is likely to continue to grow over the coming decade. Comparisons between methods are necessary to prune this growth to only the most accurate and robust methods. However, the nature of connectivity is elusive with different methods potentially attempting to identify different aspects of connectivity. Commonalities of connectivity definitions across methods upon which base direct comparisons can be difficult to derive. Here, we explicitly define “effective connectivity” using a common set of observation and state equations that are appropriate for three connectivity methods: dynamic causal modeling (DCM), multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR), and switching linear dynamic systems for fMRI (sLDSf). In addition while deriving this set, we show how many other popular functional and effective connectivity methods are actually simplifications of these equations. We discuss implications of these connections for the practice of using one method to simulate data for another method. After mathematically connecting the three effective connectivity methods, simulated fMRI data with varying numbers of regions and task conditions is generated from the common equation. This simulated data explicitly contains the type of the connectivity that the three models were intended to identify. Each method is applied to the simulated data sets and the accuracy of parameter identification is analyzed. All methods perform above chance levels at identifying correct connectivity parameters. The sLDSf method was superior in parameter estimation accuracy to both DCM and MAR for all types of comparisons. PMID:23717258

  7. Challenges in structural approaches to cell modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Wonpil; Liang, Jie; Olson, Arthur; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Vajda, Sandor; Vakser, Ilya A

    2016-07-31

    Computational modeling is essential for structural characterization of biomolecular mechanisms across the broad spectrum of scales. Adequate understanding of biomolecular mechanisms inherently involves our ability to model them. Structural modeling of individual biomolecules and their interactions has been rapidly progressing. However, in terms of the broader picture, the focus is shifting toward larger systems, up to the level of a cell. Such modeling involves a more dynamic and realistic representation of the interactomes in vivo, in a crowded cellular environment, as well as membranes and membrane proteins, and other cellular components. Structural modeling of a cell complements computational approaches to cellular mechanisms based on differential equations, graph models, and other techniques to model biological networks, imaging data, etc. Structural modeling along with other computational and experimental approaches will provide a fundamental understanding of life at the molecular level and lead to important applications to biology and medicine. A cross section of diverse approaches presented in this review illustrates the developing shift from the structural modeling of individual molecules to that of cell biology. Studies in several related areas are covered: biological networks; automated construction of three-dimensional cell models using experimental data; modeling of protein complexes; prediction of non-specific and transient protein interactions; thermodynamic and kinetic effects of crowding; cellular membrane modeling; and modeling of chromosomes. The review presents an expert opinion on the current state-of-the-art in these various aspects of structural modeling in cellular biology, and the prospects of future developments in this emerging field.

  8. Causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2014-01-01

    Given two time series, can one tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion namely information flow, we arrive at a concise formula and give this challenging question, which is of wide concern in different disciplines, a positive answer. Here causality is measured by the time rate of change of information flowing from one series, say, X2, to another, X1. The measure is asymmetric between the two parties and, particularly, if the process underlying X1 does not depend on X2, then the resulting causality from X2 to X1 vanishes. The formula is tight in form, involving only the commonly used statistics, sample covariances. It has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality. It has also been applied to the investigation of real world problems; an example presented here is the cause-effect relation between two climate modes, El Ni\\~no and Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been linked to the hazards in f...

  9. Tachyon Kinematics and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The chronological order of the events along a space-like path is not invariant under Lorentz transformations, as wellknown. This led to an early conviction that tachyons would give rise to causal anomalies. A relativistic version of the Stuckelberg-Feynman switching procedure (SWP) has been invoked as the suitable tool to eliminate those anomalies. The application of the SWP does eliminate the motions backwards in time, but interchanges the roles of source and dector. This fact triggered the proposal of a host of causal paradoxes. Till now, however, it has not been recognized that such paradoxes can be sensibly discussed (and completely solved, at least in microphysics) only after having properly developed the tachyon relativistic mechanics. We start by showing how to apply the SWP, both in the case of ordiry Special Relativity, and in the case with tachyons. Then, we carefully exploit the kinematics of the tachyon-exchange between to (ordinary) bodies. Being finally able to tackle the tachyon-causality problem, we successively solve the paradoxes: (i) by Tolman-Regge; (ii) by Pirani; (iii) by Edmonds; (iv) by Bell. At last, we discuss a further, new paradox associated with the transmission of signals by modulated tachyon beams

  10. Conceptual approach to modeling karst development

    OpenAIRE

    Mihael Brenčič

    1995-01-01

    Karst is probably one of the most complicated hydrogeological systems at all.Its structure is complex and it changes in time. In the article conceptual approaches are described which could help establishing numerical simulation models for karst development. These approaches repose on the systems theory and the concept of the pure karst.

  11. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  12. Linear structures, causal sets and topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudetz, Laurenz

    2015-11-01

    Causal set theory and the theory of linear structures (which has recently been developed by Tim Maudlin as an alternative to standard topology) share some of their main motivations. In view of that, I raise and answer the question how these two theories are related to each other and to standard topology. I show that causal set theory can be embedded into Maudlin's more general framework and I characterise what Maudlin's topological concepts boil down to when applied to discrete linear structures that correspond to causal sets. Moreover, I show that all topological aspects of causal sets that can be described in Maudlin's theory can also be described in the framework of standard topology. Finally, I discuss why these results are relevant for evaluating Maudlin's theory. The value of this theory depends crucially on whether it is true that (a) its conceptual framework is as expressive as that of standard topology when it comes to describing well-known continuous as well as discrete models of spacetime and (b) it is even more expressive or fruitful when it comes to analysing topological aspects of discrete structures that are intended as models of spacetime. On one hand, my theorems support (a). The theory is rich enough to incorporate causal set theory and its definitions of topological notions yield a plausible outcome in the case of causal sets. On the other hand, the results undermine (b). Standard topology, too, has the conceptual resources to capture those topological aspects of causal sets that are analysable within Maudlin's framework. This fact poses a challenge for the proponents of Maudlin's theory to prove it fruitful.

  13. Probabilistic risk analysis in manufacturing situational operation: application of modelling techniques and causal structure to improve safety performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Cristiano Pereira; Gilson Brito Alves Lima

    2015-01-01

    The use of probabilistic risk analysis in jet engines manufacturing process is essential to prevent failure. The objective of this study is to present a probabilistic risk analysis model to analyze the safety of this process. The standard risk assessment normally conducted is inadequate to address the risks. To remedy this problem, the model presented in this paper considers the effects of human, software and calibration reliability in the process. Bayesian Belief Network coupled to a Bow Tie...

  14. Probabilistic risk analysis in manufacturing situational operation: application of modelling techniques and causal structure to improve safety performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Cristiano Pereira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of probabilistic risk analysis in jet engines manufacturing process is essential to prevent failure. The objective of this study is to present a probabilistic risk analysis model to analyze the safety of this process. The standard risk assessment normally conducted is inadequate to address the risks. To remedy this problem, the model presented in this paper considers the effects of human, software and calibration reliability in the process. Bayesian Belief Network coupled to a Bow Tie diagram is used to identify potential engine failure scenarios. In this context and to meet this objective, an in depth literature research was conducted to identify the most appropriate modeling techniques and an interview were conducted with experts. As a result of this study, this paper presents a model that combines fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and a Bayesian Belief Networks into a single model that can be used by decision makers to identify critical risk factors in order to allocate resources to improve the safety of the system. The model is delivered in the form of a computer assisted decision tool supported by subject expert estimates.

  15. Non-parametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    CERN Document Server

    McCracken, James M

    2015-01-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  16. Disrupted effective connectivity between the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex in social anxiety disorder during emotion discrimination revealed by dynamic causal modeling for FMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sladky, Ronald; Höflich, Anna; Küblböck, Martin; Kraus, Christoph; Baldinger, Pia; Moser, Ewald; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is characterized by over-reactivity of fear-related circuits in social or performance situations and associated with marked social impairment. We used dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a method to evaluate effective connectivity, to test our hypothesis that SAD patients would exhibit dysfunctions in the amygdala-prefrontal emotion regulation network. Thirteen unmedicated SAD patients and 13 matched healthy controls performed a series of facial emotion and object discrimination tasks while undergoing fMRI. The emotion-processing network was identified by a task-related contrast and motivated the selection of the right amygdala, OFC, and DLPFC for DCM analysis. Bayesian model averaging for DCM revealed abnormal connectivity between the OFC and the amygdala in SAD patients. In healthy controls, this network represents a negative feedback loop. In patients, however, positive connectivity from OFC to amygdala was observed, indicating an excitatory connection. As we did not observe a group difference of the modulatory influence of the FACE condition on the OFC to amygdala connection, we assume a context-independent reduction of prefrontal control over amygdalar activation in SAD patients. Using DCM, it was possible to highlight not only the neuronal dysfunction of isolated brain regions, but also the dysbalance of a distributed functional network.

  17. Causality-imposed (Kramers-Kronig) relationships between attenuation and dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Kendall R; Mobley, Joel; Miller, James G

    2005-05-01

    Causality imposes restrictions on both the time-domain and frequency-domain responses of a system. The Kramers-Kronig (K-K) relations relate the real and imaginary parts of the frequency-domain response. In ultrasonics, K-K relations often are used to link attenuation and dispersion. We review both integral and differential forms of the frequency-domain K-K relations that are relevant to theoretical models and laboratory measurements. We consider two methods for implementing integral K-K relations for the case of finite-bandwidth data, namely, extrapolation of data and restriction of integration limits. For the latter approach, we discuss the accuracy of K-K predictions for specific classes of system behavior and how the truncation of the integrals affects this accuracy. We demonstrate the accurate prediction of attenuation and dispersion using several forms of the K-K relations relevant to experimental measurements of media with attenuation coefficients obeying a frequency power law and media consisting of resonant scatterers. We also review the time-causal relations that describe the time-domain consequences of causality in the wave equation. These relations can be thought of as time-domain analogs of the (frequency-domain) K-K relations. Causality-imposed relations, such as the K-K and time-causal relations, provide useful tools for the analysis of measurements and models of acoustic systems.

  18. Wage Equity and Female Job Satisfaction: The Role of Wage Differentials in a Job Satisfaction Causal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagedorn, Linda Serra

    1996-01-01

    Using data from a national survey of faculty, a study examined the role of male/female wage differentials in a model of job satisfaction for full-time female faculty. Results indicated that as gender-based wage differentials increased, females' global job satisfaction decreased, with the effect mainly in faculty perceptions of the institution.…

  19. Work Climate, Organizational Commitment, and Highway Safety in the Trucking Industry: Toward Causal Modeling of Large Truck Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Carroll M.; Scott, Aaron J.; Nafukho, Fredrick M.

    2008-01-01

    While theoretical models aimed at explaining or predicting employee turnover outcomes have been developed, minimal consideration has been given to the same task regarding safety, often measured as the probability of a crash in a given time frame. The present literature review identifies four constructs from turnover literature, which are believed…

  20. Evaluating diabetes and hypertension disease causality using mouse phenotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Jing-Dong J

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have found hundreds of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs associated with common diseases. However, it is largely unknown what genes linked with the SNPs actually implicate disease causality. A definitive proof for disease causality can be demonstration of disease-like phenotypes through genetic perturbation of the genes or alleles, which is obviously a daunting task for complex diseases where only mammalian models can be used. Results Here we tapped the rich resource of mouse phenotype data and developed a method to quantify the probability that a gene perturbation causes the phenotypes of a disease. Using type II diabetes (T2D and hypertension (HT as study cases, we found that the genes, when perturbed, having high probability to cause T2D and HT phenotypes tend to be hubs in the interactome networks and are enriched for signaling pathways regulating metabolism but not metabolic pathways, even though the genes in these metabolic pathways are often the most significantly changed in expression levels in these diseases. Conclusions Compared to human genetic disease-based predictions, our mouse phenotype based predictors greatly increased the coverage while keeping a similarly high specificity. The disease phenotype probabilities given by our approach can be used to evaluate the likelihood of disease causality of disease-associated genes and genes surrounding disease-associated SNPs.

  1. Modelling the Causal Relationship between Seniority of the CEO in the Enterprise and the Debt in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafik Kammoun

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a model in which the interaction of Seniority of the C.E.O in theenterprise and the debt can be analyzed. Multiple securities arise as optimal in the model. This allowsfor a meaningful analysis of interaction effects between Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise andthe debt for a panel of USA firms from 2000 to 2009. There is a predicted (positive relationshipbetween Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt. Finally, this paper uses the recentdevelopments in the econometrics of non-stationarydynamic panels to reassess the relationshipbetween Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt

  2. A Causal Model of the Quality Activities Process: Exploring the Links between Quality Capabilities, Competitiveness and Organizational Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-tao Yu; Bor-wen Cheng

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between Total Quality Management (TQM) practices, quality capabilities, competitiveness and firm performance. In this study, TQM has been conceptualized as soft and hard practices. An empirical analysis based upon an extensive validation process was applied to refine the construct scales, respectively. The sample consists of 423 valid responses for applying Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results derived from this study show that so...

  3. Test of a causal Human Resource Management-Performance Linkage Model: Evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

    OpenAIRE

    Katou, A.

    2011-01-01

    Although a number of studies have recognized the relationship between Human Resource Management (HRM) policies and organisational performance, the mechanisms through which HRM policies lead to organisational performance remain still unexplored. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pathways leading from HRM policies to organisational performance by using structural equation modelling. Specifically, this analytical tool has been used to test a research framework that is constituted ...

  4. Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kamat, Manoj; Kamat, Manasvi

    2007-01-01

    Using contemporary models this paper explores the time-series properties of financial infrastructure and economic growth indicators to investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the economic growth for India over the 1971-2004 periods. Both over short-run and the long-run perspective the paper seeks to answer; whether the financial infrastructure variables are complementary or a substitute for economic performance? and in what way economic growth is affected b...

  5. Modeling diffuse pollution with a distributed approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, L F; Soulis, E D; Kouwen, N; Farquhar, G J

    2002-01-01

    The transferability of parameters for non-point source pollution models to other watersheds, especially those in remote areas without enough data for calibration, is a major problem in diffuse pollution modeling. A water quality component was developed for WATFLOOD (a flood forecast hydrological model) to deal with sediment and nutrient transport. The model uses a distributed group response unit approach for water quantity and quality modeling. Runoff, sediment yield and soluble nutrient concentrations are calculated separately for each land cover class, weighted by area and then routed downstream. The distributed approach for the water quality model for diffuse pollution in agricultural watersheds is described in this paper. Integrating the model with data extracted using GIS technology (Geographical Information Systems) for a local watershed, the model is calibrated for the hydrologic response and validated for the water quality component. With the connection to GIS and the group response unit approach used in this paper, model portability increases substantially, which will improve non-point source modeling at the watershed scale level.

  6. Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth. - Highlights: • We examine the energy–FDI–growth nexus for a global panel of 65 countries. • Dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models are used to address this issue. • We also investigate this nexus for three sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. • We show mixed results about the interrelationship between the three variables

  7. MODULAR APPROACH WITH ROUGH DECISION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  8. Modular Approach with Rough Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed T. Shawky

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision models which adopt rough set theory have been used effectively in many real world applications.However, rough decision models suffer the high computational complexity when dealing with datasets ofhuge size. In this research we propose a new rough decision model that allows making decisions based onmodularity mechanism. According to the proposed approach, large-size datasets can be divided intoarbitrary moderate-size datasets, then a group of rough decision models can be built as separate decisionmodules. The overall model decision is computed as the consensus decision of all decision modulesthrough some aggregation technique. This approach provides a flexible and a quick way for extractingdecision rules of large size information tables using rough decision models.

  9. Entropy of Causal Horizons

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Eric M

    2016-01-01

    We analyze spacetimes with horizons and study the thermodynamic aspects of causal horizons, suggesting that the resemblance between gravitational and thermodynamic systems has a deeper quantum mechanical origin. We find that the observer dependence of such horizons is a direct consequence of associating a temperature and entropy to a spacetime. The geometrical picture of a horizon acting as a one-way membrane for information flow can be accepted as a natural interpretation of assigning a quantum field theory to a spacetime with boundary, ultimately leading to a close connection with thermodynamics.

  10. Quantum information causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitalúa-García, Damián

    2013-05-24

    How much information can a transmitted physical system fundamentally communicate? We introduce the principle of quantum information causality, which states the maximum amount of quantum information that a quantum system can communicate as a function of its dimension, independently of any previously shared quantum physical resources. We present a new quantum information task, whose success probability is upper bounded by the new principle, and show that an optimal strategy to perform it combines the quantum teleportation and superdense coding protocols with a task that has classical inputs. PMID:23745844

  11. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    OpenAIRE

    Daniusis, Povilas; Janzing, Dominik; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the ...

  12. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach

    OpenAIRE

    Todorov, Alexander; Baron, Sean G.; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N.

    2008-01-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging ...

  13. Quantitative genetic analysis of causal relationships among feather pecking, feather eating, and general locomotor activity in laying hens using structural equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, V; Kjaer, J B; Iffland, H; Rodehutscord, M; Bessei, W; Bennewitz, J

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this research was to analyze the relationship between feather pecking (FP) and feather eating (FE) as well as general locomotor activity (GLA) using structural equation models, which allow that one trait can be treated as an explanatory variable of another trait. This provides an opportunity to infer putative causal links among the traits. For the analysis, 897 F2-hens set up from 2 lines divergently selected for high and low FP were available. The FP observations were Box-Cox transformed, and FE and GLA observations were log and square root transformed, respectively. The estimated heritabilities of FE, GLA, and FP were 0.36, 0.29, and 0.20, respectively. The genetic correlation between FP and FE (GLA) was 0.17 (0.04). A high genetic correlation of 0.47 was estimated between FE and GLA. The recursive effect from FE to FP was [Formula: see text], and from GLA to FP [Formula: see text] These results imply that an increase of FE leads to an increased FP behavior and that an increase in GLA results in a higher FP value. Furthermore, the study showed that the genetic correlation among the traits is mainly caused by indirect effects. PMID:27252366

  14. Estimating Causal Effects With Propensity Score Models: An Evaluation of the Touch Condom Media Campaign in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Christopher E; Chen, Hongliang; Agha, Sohail

    2016-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Pakistan poses major risks, including those pertinent to public health. In the context of family planning in Pakistan, the current study evaluates the Touch condom media campaign and its effects on condom-related awareness, attitudes, behavioral intention, and behavior. This evaluation relies on 3 waves of panel survey data from men married to women ages 15-49 living in urban and rural areas in Pakistan (N = 1,012): Wave 1 was March 15 to April 7, 2009; Wave 2 was August 10 to August 24, 2009; and Wave 3 was May 1 to June 13, 2010. Analysis of variance provided evidence of improvements in 10 of 11 condom-related outcomes from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and Wave 3. In addition, there was no evidence of outcome decay 1 year after the conclusion of campaign advertising dissemination. To help compensate for violating the assumption of random assignment, propensity score modeling offered evidence of the beneficial effects of confirmed Touch ad recall on each of the 11 outcomes in at least 1 of 3 time-lagged scenarios. By using these different time-lagged scenarios (i.e., from Wave 1 to Wave 2, from Wave 1 to Wave 3, and from Wave 2 to Wave 3), propensity score modeling permitted insights into how the campaign had time-variant effects on the different types of condom-related outcomes, including carryover effects of the media campaign.

  15. A Causal Model of the Quality Activities Process: Exploring the Links between Quality Capabilities, Competitiveness and Organizational Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-tao Yu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between Total Quality Management (TQM practices, quality capabilities, competitiveness and firm performance. In this study, TQM has been conceptualized as soft and hard practices. An empirical analysis based upon an extensive validation process was applied to refine the construct scales, respectively. The sample consists of 423 valid responses for applying Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. Results derived from this study show that soft TQM practices have a direct, positive and significant relationship between quality capabilities, competitive strategies and Organizational performance. In addition, an indirect, positive and significant relationship on organizational performance through quality capabilities and competitive strategies was observed. The findings of this research show that hypotheses H3b, H4b and H6b do not support, the rest are in line with the model inference. Particularly, from the results indicate that soft TQM are the most important resource, which has strong effects on organizational performance. Results derived from this study might help managers to implement TQM practices in order to effectively allocate resources and improve financial performance. Thus, managers should consider that improvement in soft TQM would support the successful implementation of quality capabilities, competitive advantage and organizational performance. Much efforts relating to social aspects in TQM activities are particularly key issues to improve performance.

  16. Estimating Causal Effects With Propensity Score Models: An Evaluation of the Touch Condom Media Campaign in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Christopher E; Chen, Hongliang; Agha, Sohail

    2016-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Pakistan poses major risks, including those pertinent to public health. In the context of family planning in Pakistan, the current study evaluates the Touch condom media campaign and its effects on condom-related awareness, attitudes, behavioral intention, and behavior. This evaluation relies on 3 waves of panel survey data from men married to women ages 15-49 living in urban and rural areas in Pakistan (N = 1,012): Wave 1 was March 15 to April 7, 2009; Wave 2 was August 10 to August 24, 2009; and Wave 3 was May 1 to June 13, 2010. Analysis of variance provided evidence of improvements in 10 of 11 condom-related outcomes from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and Wave 3. In addition, there was no evidence of outcome decay 1 year after the conclusion of campaign advertising dissemination. To help compensate for violating the assumption of random assignment, propensity score modeling offered evidence of the beneficial effects of confirmed Touch ad recall on each of the 11 outcomes in at least 1 of 3 time-lagged scenarios. By using these different time-lagged scenarios (i.e., from Wave 1 to Wave 2, from Wave 1 to Wave 3, and from Wave 2 to Wave 3), propensity score modeling permitted insights into how the campaign had time-variant effects on the different types of condom-related outcomes, including carryover effects of the media campaign. PMID:26855176

  17. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  18. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian;

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... injections in intermediate-to-strongly coupled systems could enable more accurate causal inferences. Given the inherent noisy nature of real-world systems, our findings enable a more accurate evaluation of CCM applicability and advance suggestions on how to overcome its weaknesses....

  19. The causal meaning of Hamilton's rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okasha, Samir; Martens, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    Hamilton's original derivation of his rule for the spread of an altruistic gene (rb>c) assumed additivity of costs and benefits. Recently, it has been argued that an exact version of the rule holds under non-additive pay-offs, so long as the cost and benefit terms are suitably defined, as partial regression coefficients. However, critics have questioned both the biological significance and the causal meaning of the resulting rule. This paper examines the causal meaning of the generalized Hamilton's rule in a simple model, by computing the effect of a hypothetical experiment to assess the cost of a social action and comparing it to the partial regression definition. The two do not agree. A possible way of salvaging the causal meaning of Hamilton's rule is explored, by appeal to R. A. Fisher's 'average effect of a gene substitution'. PMID:27069669

  20. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  1. Building Water Models, A Different Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Izadi, Saeed; Onufriev, Alexey V

    2014-01-01

    Simplified, classical models of water are an integral part of atomistic molecular simulations, especially in biology and chemistry where hydration effects are critical. Yet, despite several decades of effort, these models are still far from perfect. Presented here is an alternative approach to constructing point charge water models - currently, the most commonly used type. In contrast to the conventional approach, we do not impose any geometry constraints on the model other than symmetry. Instead, we optimize the distribution of point charges to best describe the "electrostatics" of the water molecule, which is key to many unusual properties of liquid water. The search for the optimal charge distribution is performed in 2D parameter space of key lowest multipole moments of the model, to find best fit to a small set of bulk water properties at room temperature. A virtually exhaustive search is enabled via analytical equations that relate the charge distribution to the multipole moments. The resulting "optimal"...

  2. Determining the direction of causality between psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance

    OpenAIRE

    Maarten Kroesen; Eric J. E. Molin; Bert van Wee

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an attempt is made to establish the direction of causality between a range of psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance. For this purpose, a panel model was estimated within a structural equation modeling approach. Data were gathered from two surveys conducted in April 2006 and April 2008, respectively, among the same residents living within the 45 Level day-evening-night contour of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands (n=250). A surprisin...

  3. The balanced scorecard: an incremental approach model to health care management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineno, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    The balanced scorecard represents a technique used in strategic management to translate an organization's mission and strategy into a comprehensive set of performance measures that provide the framework for implementation of strategic management. This article develops an incremental approach for decision making by formulating a specific balanced scorecard model with an index of nonfinancial as well as financial measures. The incremental approach to costs, including profit contribution analysis and probabilities, allows decisionmakers to assess, for example, how their desire to meet different health care needs will cause changes in service design. This incremental approach to the balanced scorecard may prove to be useful in evaluating the existence of causality relationships between different objective and subjective measures to be included within the balanced scorecard.

  4. A Causal Construction of Diffusion Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Banek, Tadeusz

    2010-01-01

    A simple nonlinear integral equation for Ito's map is obtained. Although, it does not include stochastic integrals, it does give causal construction of diffusion processes which can be easily implemented by iteration systems. Applications in financial modelling and extension to fBm are discussed.

  5. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  6. Reflective, causal, and composite indicators of quality of life: A conceptual or an empirical distinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Daniel S J

    2015-09-01

    Items (or indicators) that constitute "quality of life" instruments can be classified as either reflective (manifestations of some underlying construct), causal (the construct is an effect of the indicators), or composite (the construct is an exact linear combination of the indicators). Psychometric methods based on inter-item associations are only appropriate for reflective indicators, whereas other statistical and non-statistical validation methods can be used for composite or causal indicators. Thus, the distinction has important practical, as well as theoretical, implications. Attempts have been made to empirically identify which items of the EORTC QLQ-C30, a cancer-specific instrument, are causal and which are reflective. Such attempts, however, first require commitment to a particular definition of quality of life, of which there are many. Whether an indicator forms a composite, is causal or reflective of quality of life will depend on the definition adopted, and therefore, the reflective-composite-causal distinction is, arguably, best established on conceptual rather empirical grounds, guided by the "mental experiments" suggested by Bollen (Structural equations with latent variables, Wiley, New York, 1989). Conceptual models of health status and quality of life, as well as a cognitive-linguistic approach to quality of life assessment, may make some contribution to this practice. Theoretical consideration of indicator content can guide not only instrument development and validation, but also the selection of an appropriate instrument. PMID:25725599

  7. Experimental test of nonlocal causality

    OpenAIRE

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data fro...

  8. Causal evolution of wave packets

    CERN Document Server

    Eckstein, Michał

    2016-01-01

    Drawing from the optimal transport theory adapted to the relativistic setting we formulate the principle of a causal flow of probability and apply it in the wave packet formalism. We demonstrate that whereas the Dirac system is causal, the relativistic-Schr\\"odinger Hamiltonian impels a superluminal evolution of probabilities. We quantify the causality breakdown in the latter system and argue that, in contrast to the popular viewpoint, it is not related to the localisation properties of the states.

  9. Relativistic hydrodynamics - causality and stability

    OpenAIRE

    Ván, P.; Biró, T. S.

    2007-01-01

    Causality and stability in relativistic dissipative hydrodynamics are important conceptual issues. We argue that causality is not restricted to hyperbolic set of differential equations. E.g. heat conduction equation can be causal considering the physical validity of the theory. Furthermore we propose a new concept of relativistic internal energy that clearly separates the dissipative and non-dissipative effects. We prove that with this choice we remove all known instabilities of the linear re...

  10. The Feasibility of Using Causal Indicators in Educational Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jue; Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2016-01-01

    The authors of the focus article describe an important issue related to the use and interpretation of causal indicators within the context of structural equation modeling (SEM). In the focus article, the authors illustrate with simulated data the effects of omitting a causal indicator. Since SEMs are used extensively in the social and behavioral…

  11. From Blickets to Synapses: Inferring Temporal Causal Networks by Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Chrisantha

    2013-01-01

    How do human infants learn the causal dependencies between events? Evidence suggests that this remarkable feat can be achieved by observation of only a handful of examples. Many computational models have been produced to explain how infants perform causal inference without explicit teaching about statistics or the scientific method. Here, we…

  12. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  13. Quantum objects as elementary units of causality and locality

    CERN Document Server

    Diel, Hans H

    2016-01-01

    The author's attempt to construct a local causal model of quantum theory (QT) that includes quantum field theory (QFT) resulted in the identification of "quantum objects" as the elementary units of causality and locality. Quantum objects are collections of particles (including single particles) whose collective dynamics and measurement results can only be described by the laws of QT and QFT. Local causal models of quantum objects' internal dynamics are not possible if a locality is understood as a space-point locality. Within quantum objects, state transitions may occur which instantly affect the whole quantum object. The identification of quantum objects as the elementary units of causality and locality has two primary implications for a causal model of quantum objects: (1) quantum objects run autonomously with system-state update frequencies based on their local proper times and with either no or minimal dependency on external parameters. (2) The laws of physics that describe global (but relativistic) inter...

  14. K-causal structure of space-time in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sujatha Janardhan; R V Saraykar

    2008-04-01

    Using K-causal relation introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar [1], we generalize results of Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla [2,3] on causal maps. We also introduce causality conditions with respect to K-causality which are analogous to those in classical causality theory and prove their inter-relationships. We introduce a new causality condition following the work of Bombelli and Noldus [4] and show that this condition lies in between global hyperbolicity and causal simplicity. This approach is simpler and more general as compared to traditional causal approach [5,6] and it has been used by Penrose et al [7] in giving a new proof of positivity of mass theorem. 0-space-time structures arise in many mathematical and physical situations like conical singularities, discontinuous matter distributions, phenomena of topology-change in quantum field theory etc.

  15. A message-passing approach for recurrent-state epidemic models on networks

    CERN Document Server

    Shrestha, Munik; Moore, Cristopher

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) and SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We ...

  16. Semantic Approach for Service Oriented Requirements Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Bin; Cai, Guang-Jun; Jin, Zhi

    2010-01-01

    International audience Services computing is an interdisciplinary subject that devotes to bridging the gap between business services and IT services. It is recognized that Requirements Engineering is fundamental in implementing the service oriented architecture. It takes traditional RE techniques great efforts to model business requirements and search for the appropriate services. In this paper, we propose an ontological approach to facilitate the service-oriented modeling framework. The g...

  17. A flexible approach to guideline modeling.

    OpenAIRE

    Tu, S. W.; Musen, M. A.

    1999-01-01

    We describe a task-oriented approach to guideline modeling that we have been developing in the EON project. We argue that guidelines seek to change behaviors by making statements involving some or all of the following tasks: (1) setting of goals or constraints, (2) making decisions among alternatives, (3) sequencing and synchronization of actions, and (4) interpreting data. Statements about these tasks make assumptions about models of time and of data abstractions, and about degree of uncerta...

  18. "Credit Risk Modeling Approaches"(in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    Takao Kobayashi

    2003-01-01

    This article originates from a speech given by the author in the seminar organized by the Security Analysts Association of Japan (SAAJ) on September fifth of 2003 to commemorate the founding of the Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA) qualification. In the first half, I give a fairly comprehensive, non-quantitative summary of the recent developments of credit risk modeling approaches and techniques. In the latter half, I illustrate a new convertible-bond (CB) pricing model that w...

  19. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    CERN Document Server

    Daniusis, Povilas; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the distribution of the effect will, in a certain sense, depend on the function. We provide a theoretical analysis of this method, showing that it also works in the low noise regime, and link it to information geometry. We report strong empirical results on various real-world data sets from different domains.

  20. A Multiple Model Approach to Modeling Based on LPF Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Input-output data fitting methods are often used for unknown-structure nonlinear system modeling. Based on model-on-demand tactics, a multiple model approach to modeling for nonlinear systems is presented. The basic idea is to find out, from vast historical system input-output data sets, some data sets matching with the current working point, then to develop a local model using Local Polynomial Fitting (LPF) algorithm. With the change of working points, multiple local models are built, which realize the exact modeling for the global system. By comparing to other methods, the simulation results show good performance for its simple, effective and reliable estimation.``

  1. Post-16 Biology--Some Model Approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Roger

    1997-01-01

    Outlines alternative approaches to the teaching of difficult concepts in A-level biology which may help student learning by making abstract ideas more concrete and accessible. Examples include models, posters, and poems for illustrating meiosis, mitosis, genetic mutations, and protein synthesis. (DDR)

  2. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  3. Spread of entanglement and causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casini, Horacio; Liu, Hong; Mezei, Márk

    2016-07-01

    We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of [1] to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multiple intervals, this model and its variations are able to reproduce intricate results exhibited by holographic theories for a significant part of the parameter space. For higher dimensions, the model bounds the tsunami velocity at the speed of light. Finally, we construct a geometric model for entanglement propagation based on a tensor network construction for global quenches.

  4. Integrating functional data to prioritize causal variants in statistical fine-mapping studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gleb Kichaev

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Standard statistical approaches for prioritization of variants for functional testing in fine-mapping studies either use marginal association statistics or estimate posterior probabilities for variants to be causal under simplifying assumptions. Here, we present a probabilistic framework that integrates association strength with functional genomic annotation data to improve accuracy in selecting plausible causal variants for functional validation. A key feature of our approach is that it empirically estimates the contribution of each functional annotation to the trait of interest directly from summary association statistics while allowing for multiple causal variants at any risk locus. We devise efficient algorithms that estimate the parameters of our model across all risk loci to further increase performance. Using simulations starting from the 1000 Genomes data, we find that our framework consistently outperforms the current state-of-the-art fine-mapping methods, reducing the number of variants that need to be selected to capture 90% of the causal variants from an average of 13.3 to 10.4 SNPs per locus (as compared to the next-best performing strategy. Furthermore, we introduce a cost-to-benefit optimization framework for determining the number of variants to be followed up in functional assays and assess its performance using real and simulation data. We validate our findings using a large scale meta-analysis of four blood lipids traits and find that the relative probability for causality is increased for variants in exons and transcription start sites and decreased in repressed genomic regions at the risk loci of these traits. Using these highly predictive, trait-specific functional annotations, we estimate causality probabilities across all traits and variants, reducing the size of the 90% confidence set from an average of 17.5 to 13.5 variants per locus in this data.

  5. Decomposition approach to model smart suspension struts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xubin

    2008-10-01

    Model and simulation study is the starting point for engineering design and development, especially for developing vehicle control systems. This paper presents a methodology to build models for application of smart struts for vehicle suspension control development. The modeling approach is based on decomposition of the testing data. Per the strut functions, the data is dissected according to both control and physical variables. Then the data sets are characterized to represent different aspects of the strut working behaviors. Next different mathematical equations can be built and optimized to best fit the corresponding data sets, respectively. In this way, the model optimization can be facilitated in comparison to a traditional approach to find out a global optimum set of model parameters for a complicated nonlinear model from a series of testing data. Finally, two struts are introduced as examples for this modeling study: magneto-rheological (MR) dampers and compressible fluid (CF) based struts. The model validation shows that this methodology can truly capture macro-behaviors of these struts.

  6. Anterior cingulate cortex-related connectivity in first-episode schizophrenia: a spectral dynamic causal modeling study with functional magnetic resonance imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long-Biao eCui

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the neural basis of schizophrenia (SZ is important for shedding light on the neurobiological mechanisms underlying this mental disorder. Structural and functional alterations in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC, hippocampus, and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC have been implicated in the neurobiology of SZ. However, the effective connectivity among them in SZ remains unclear. The current study investigated how neuronal pathways involving these regions were affected in first-episode SZ using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Forty-nine patients with a first-episode of psychosis and diagnosis of SZ—according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision—were studied. Fifty healthy controls (HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state fMRI. We used spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM to estimate directed connections among the bilateral ACC, DLPFC, hippocampus, and MPFC. We characterized the differences using Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA in addition to classical inference (t-test. In addition to common effective connectivity in these two groups, HCs displayed widespread significant connections predominantly involved in ACC not detected in SZ patients, but SZ showed few connections. Based on BPA results, SZ patients exhibited anterior cingulate cortico-prefrontal-hippocampal hyperconnectivity, as well as ACC-related and hippocampal-dorsolateral prefrontal-medial prefrontal hypoconnectivity. In summary, sDCM revealed the pattern of effective connectivity involving ACC in patients with first-episode SZ. This study provides a potential link between SZ and dysfunction of ACC, creating an ideal situation to associate mechanisms behind SZ with aberrant connectivity among these cognition and emotion-related regions.

  7. Multidimensional boron transport modeling in subchannel approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this study is to implement a solute tracking model into the subchannel code CTF for simulations of boric acid transients. Previously, three different boron tracking models have been implemented into CTF and based on the applied analytical and nodal sensitivity studies the Modified Godunov Scheme approach with a physical diffusion term has been selected as the most accurate and best estimate solution. This paper will present the implementation of a multidimensional boron transport modeling with Modified Godunov Scheme within a thermal-hydraulic code based on a subchannel approach. Based on the cross flow mechanism in a multiple-subchannel rod bundle geometry, heat transfer and lateral pressure drop effects will be discussed in deboration and boration case studies. (author)

  8. Heat transfer modeling an inductive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Sidebotham, George

    2015-01-01

    This innovative text emphasizes a "less-is-more" approach to modeling complicated systems such as heat transfer by treating them first as "1-node lumped models" that yield simple closed-form solutions. The author develops numerical techniques for students to obtain more detail, but also trains them to use the techniques only when simpler approaches fail. Covering all essential methods offered in traditional texts, but with a different order, Professor Sidebotham stresses inductive thinking and problem solving as well as a constructive understanding of modern, computer-based practice. Readers learn to develop their own code in the context of the material, rather than just how to use packaged software, offering a deeper, intrinsic grasp behind models of heat transfer. Developed from over twenty-five years of lecture notes to teach students of mechanical and chemical engineering at The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, the book is ideal for students and practitioners across engineering discipl...

  9. A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

    2011-11-01

    The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

  10. A subgrid based approach for morphodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volp, N. D.; van Prooijen, B. C.; Pietrzak, J. D.; Stelling, G. S.

    2016-07-01

    To improve the accuracy and the efficiency of morphodynamic simulations, we present a subgrid based approach for a morphodynamic model. This approach is well suited for areas characterized by sub-critical flow, like in estuaries, coastal areas and in low land rivers. This new method uses a different grid resolution to compute the hydrodynamics and the morphodynamics. The hydrodynamic computations are carried out with a subgrid based, two-dimensional, depth-averaged model. This model uses a coarse computational grid in combination with a subgrid. The subgrid contains high resolution bathymetry and roughness information to compute volumes, friction and advection. The morphodynamic computations are carried out entirely on a high resolution grid, the bed grid. It is key to find a link between the information defined on the different grids in order to guaranty the feedback between the hydrodynamics and the morphodynamics. This link is made by using a new physics-based interpolation method. The method interpolates water levels and velocities from the coarse grid to the high resolution bed grid. The morphodynamic solution improves significantly when using the subgrid based method compared to a full coarse grid approach. The Exner equation is discretised with an upwind method based on the direction of the bed celerity. This ensures a stable solution for the Exner equation. By means of three examples, it is shown that the subgrid based approach offers a significant improvement at a minimal computational cost.

  11. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  12. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    2015-01-01

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the es

  13. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  14. Extending Temporal Causal Graph For Diagnosis Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Belouaer, Lamia; Bouzid, Maroua; Mouhoub, Malek

    2009-01-01

    Poster International audience Abductive diagnosis (Brusoni et al. 1998) consists in finding explanations for given observations by using rules of inference based on the causal dependences of the system. Time is important for abductive diagnosis (Hamscher and Davis 1984), (Hamscher, Console, and Kleer 1992). There are few works in litterature handling temporal diagnosis (Kautz 1999). They differ in the expressiveness of the temporal knowledge. We propose a new approach for Temporal Diagn...

  15. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  16. A Bayesian Shrinkage Approach for AMMI Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Carlos Pereira; de Oliveira, Luciano Antonio; Nuvunga, Joel Jorge; Pamplona, Andrezza Kéllen Alves; Balestre, Marcio

    2015-01-01

    Linear-bilinear models, especially the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model, are widely applicable to genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) studies in plant breeding programs. These models allow a parsimonious modeling of GE interactions, retaining a small number of principal components in the analysis. However, one aspect of the AMMI model that is still debated is the selection criteria for determining the number of multiplicative terms required to describe the GE interaction pattern. Shrinkage estimators have been proposed as selection criteria for the GE interaction components. In this study, a Bayesian approach was combined with the AMMI model with shrinkage estimators for the principal components. A total of 55 maize genotypes were evaluated in nine different environments using a complete blocks design with three replicates. The results show that the traditional Bayesian AMMI model produces low shrinkage of singular values but avoids the usual pitfalls in determining the credible intervals in the biplot. On the other hand, Bayesian shrinkage AMMI models have difficulty with the credible interval for model parameters, but produce stronger shrinkage of the principal components, converging to GE matrices that have more shrinkage than those obtained using mixed models. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen, and resulted in models being selected that were similar to those obtained by the Cornelius F-test (α = 0.05) in traditional AMMI models and cross validation based on leave-one-out. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen and more GEI pattern retained on the first two components. The resulting model chosen by posterior distribution of singular value was also similar to those produced by the cross-validation approach in traditional AMMI models. Our method enables the estimation of credible interval for AMMI biplot plus the choice of AMMI model based on direct posterior

  17. A Bayesian Shrinkage Approach for AMMI Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Pereira da Silva

    Full Text Available Linear-bilinear models, especially the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI model, are widely applicable to genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI studies in plant breeding programs. These models allow a parsimonious modeling of GE interactions, retaining a small number of principal components in the analysis. However, one aspect of the AMMI model that is still debated is the selection criteria for determining the number of multiplicative terms required to describe the GE interaction pattern. Shrinkage estimators have been proposed as selection criteria for the GE interaction components. In this study, a Bayesian approach was combined with the AMMI model with shrinkage estimators for the principal components. A total of 55 maize genotypes were evaluated in nine different environments using a complete blocks design with three replicates. The results show that the traditional Bayesian AMMI model produces low shrinkage of singular values but avoids the usual pitfalls in determining the credible intervals in the biplot. On the other hand, Bayesian shrinkage AMMI models have difficulty with the credible interval for model parameters, but produce stronger shrinkage of the principal components, converging to GE matrices that have more shrinkage than those obtained using mixed models. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen, and resulted in models being selected that were similar to those obtained by the Cornelius F-test (α = 0.05 in traditional AMMI models and cross validation based on leave-one-out. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen and more GEI pattern retained on the first two components. The resulting model chosen by posterior distribution of singular value was also similar to those produced by the cross-validation approach in traditional AMMI models. Our method enables the estimation of credible interval for AMMI biplot plus the choice of AMMI model based on direct

  18. A multiscale modeling approach for biomolecular systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowling, Alan, E-mail: bowling@uta.edu; Haghshenas-Jaryani, Mahdi, E-mail: mahdi.haghshenasjaryani@mavs.uta.edu [The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (United States)

    2015-04-15

    This paper presents a new multiscale molecular dynamic model for investigating the effects of external interactions, such as contact and impact, during stepping and docking of motor proteins and other biomolecular systems. The model retains the mass properties ensuring that the result satisfies Newton’s second law. This idea is presented using a simple particle model to facilitate discussion of the rigid body model; however, the particle model does provide insights into particle dynamics at the nanoscale. The resulting three-dimensional model predicts a significant decrease in the effect of the random forces associated with Brownian motion. This conclusion runs contrary to the widely accepted notion that the motor protein’s movements are primarily the result of thermal effects. This work focuses on the mechanical aspects of protein locomotion; the effect ATP hydrolysis is estimated as internal forces acting on the mechanical model. In addition, the proposed model can be numerically integrated in a reasonable amount of time. Herein, the differences between the motion predicted by the old and new modeling approaches are compared using a simplified model of myosin V.

  19. Modeling approach for business process reengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Mitchell M.; Chen, Yuliu

    1995-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modeling approach to define, simulate, animate, and control business processes. The intent is to introduce the undergoing methodology to build tools for designing and managing business processes. Similar to computer aided design (CAD) for mechanical parts, CAD tools are needed for designing business processes. It emphasizes the dynamic behavior of business process. The proposed modeling technique consists of a definition of each individual activity, the network of activities, a control mechanism that describes coordination of these activities, and events that will flow through these activities. Based on the formalism introduced in this modeling technique, users will be able to define business process with minimum ambiguity, take snap shots of particular events in the process, describe the accountability of participants, and view a replay of event streams in the process flow. This modeling approach, mapped on top of a commercial software, has been tested by using examples from real life business process. The examples and testing helped us to identify some of the strengths and weaknesses of this proposed approach.

  20. A Meta-Frontier Approach for Causal Inference in Productivity Analysis: The Effect of Contract Farming on Sunflower Productivity in Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Henningsen, Arne; Mpeta, Daniel F.; Adem, Anwar S.; Kuzilwa, Joseph A.; Czekaj, Tomasz G.

    2015-01-01

    Due to changes in the global agricultural system and support from various organizations, contract farming has recently been significantly expanded in many developing countries. A considerable body of literature analyses the impact of contract farming on the welfare of smallholders, whereas its impact on efficiency and productivity is mostly overlooked. This study addresses this salient gap by combining the approaches suggested by Bravo-Ureta, Greene, and Solís (Empirical Economics 43:55–72, 2...

  1. Spacetime Causal Structure and Dimension from Horismotic Relation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. C. Stoica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reflexive relation on a set can be a starting point in defining the causal structure of a spacetime in General Relativity and other relativistic theories of gravity. If we identify this relation as the relation between lightlike separated events (the horismos relation, we can construct in a natural way the entire causal structure: causal and chronological relations, causal curves, and a topology. By imposing a simple additional condition, the structure gains a definite number of dimensions. This construction works with both continuous and discrete spacetimes. The dimensionality is obtained also in the discrete case, so this approach can be suited to prove the fundamental conjecture of causal sets. Other simple conditions lead to a differentiable manifold with a conformal structure (the metric up to a scaling factor as in Lorentzian manifolds. This structure provides a simple and general reconstruction of the spacetime in relativistic theories of gravity, which normally requires topological structure, differential structure, and geometric structure (which decomposes in the conformal structure, giving the causal relations and the volume element. Motivations for such a reconstruction come from relativistic theories of gravity, where the conformal structure is important, from the problem of singularities, and from Quantum Gravity, where various discretization methods are pursued, particularly in the causal sets approach.

  2. Multiscale Model Approach for Magnetization Dynamics Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    De Lucia, Andrea; Tretiakov, Oleg A; Kläui, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Simulations of magnetization dynamics in a multiscale environment enable rapid evaluation of the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation in a mesoscopic sample with nanoscopic accuracy in areas where such accuracy is required. We have developed a multiscale magnetization dynamics simulation approach that can be applied to large systems with spin structures that vary locally on small length scales. To implement this, the conventional micromagnetic simulation framework has been expanded to include a multiscale solving routine. The software selectively simulates different regions of a ferromagnetic sample according to the spin structures located within in order to employ a suitable discretization and use either a micromagnetic or an atomistic model. To demonstrate the validity of the multiscale approach, we simulate the spin wave transmission across the regions simulated with the two different models and different discretizations. We find that the interface between the regions is fully transparent for spin waves with f...

  3. ["Karoshi" and causal relationships].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamajima, N

    1992-08-01

    This paper aims to introduce a measure for use by physicians for stating the degree of probable causal relationship for "Karoshi", ie, a sudden death from cerebrovascular diseases or ischemic heart diseases under occupational stresses, as well as to give a brief description for legal procedures associated with worker's compensation and civil trial in Japan. It is a well-used measure in epidemiology, "attributable risk percent (AR%)", which can be applied to describe the extent of contribution to "Karoshi" of the excess occupational burdens the deceased worker was forced to bear. Although several standards such as average occupational burdens for the worker, average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker, burdens in a nonoccupational life, and a complete rest, might be considered for the AR% estimation, the average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker should normally be utilized as a standard for worker's compensation. The adoption of AR% could be helpful for courts to make a consistent judgement whether "Karoshi" cases are compensatable or not. PMID:1392028

  4. Continuum modeling an approach through practical examples

    CERN Document Server

    Muntean, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    This book develops continuum modeling skills and approaches the topic from three sides: (1) derivation of global integral laws together with the associated local differential equations, (2) design of constitutive laws and (3) modeling boundary processes. The focus of this presentation lies on many practical examples covering aspects such as coupled flow, diffusion and reaction in porous media or microwave heating of a pizza, as well as traffic issues in bacterial colonies and energy harvesting from geothermal wells. The target audience comprises primarily graduate students in pure and applied mathematics as well as working practitioners in engineering who are faced by nonstandard rheological topics like those typically arising in the food industry.

  5. Exact Approach to Inflationary Universe Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Campo, Sergio

    In this chapter we introduce a study of inflationary universe models that are characterized by a single scalar inflation field . The study of these models is based on two dynamical equations: one corresponding to the Klein-Gordon equation for the inflaton field and the other to a generalized Friedmann equation. After describing the kinematics and dynamics of the models under the Hamilton-Jacobi scheme, we determine in some detail scalar density perturbations and relic gravitational waves. We also introduce the study of inflation under the hierarchy of the slow-roll parameters together with the flow equations. We apply this approach to the modified Friedmann equation that we call the Friedmann-Chern-Simons equation, characterized by F(H) = H^2- α H4, and the brane-world inflationary models expressed by the modified Friedmann equation.

  6. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  7. Bell's theorem and the causal arrow of time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argaman, Nathan

    2010-10-01

    Einstein held that the formalism of quantum mechanics involves "spooky actions at a distance." In the 1960s, Bell amplified this by showing that the predictions of quantum mechanics disagree with the results of any locally causal description. It should be appreciated that accepting nonlocal descriptions while retaining causality leads to a clash with relativity. Furthermore, the causal arrow of time by definition contradicts time-reversal symmetry. For these reasons, Wheeler and Feynman, Costa de Beauregard, Cramer, Price, and others have advocated abandoning microscopic causality. In this paper, a simplistic but concrete example of this line of thought is presented, in the form of a retro-causal toy model that is stochastic and provides an appealing description of the quantum correlations discussed by Bell. It is concluded that Einstein's "spooky actions" may occur "in the past" rather than "at a distance," resolving the tension between quantum mechanics and relativity and opening unexplored possibilities for future reformulations of quantum mechanics.

  8. Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

  9. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    OpenAIRE

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-01-01

    Information technology induced communications (ICTs) have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management ...

  10. Consequences of media and Internet use for offline and online network capital and well-being: A causal model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vergeer, M.R.M.; Pelzer, B.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study sets out to identify relations between people's media use, network capital as a resource, and loneliness. Unlike many studies on this topic, this study aimed to test hypotheses on a national sample, and used insights from empirical research and theoretical notions from different research

  11. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik Hoxha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

  12. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-12

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik HOXHA

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to price, whereas the second argue that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, there is at least some consensus that researchers conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that the relationship may vary through economic cycles. This paper empirically examines the pricewage causal relationship in EMU, by using OLS and VECM analysis, and also it provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the short-run. Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of the estimated VECM and finally model robustness checks indicate that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and variables, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence for the case of EMU.

  13. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, S. Q.; He, W. P.; Wang, L.; Jiang, W.; Zhang, W.

    2012-08-01

    The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data." On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM), including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  14. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  15. Quantum Gravity and Matter: Counting Graphs on Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    CERN Document Server

    Benedetti, D

    2006-01-01

    An outstanding challenge for models of non-perturbative quantum gravity is the consistent formulation and quantitative evaluation of physical phenomena in a regime where geometry and matter are strongly coupled. After developing appropriate technical tools, one is interested in measuring and classifying how the quantum fluctuations of geometry alter the behaviour of matter, compared with that on a fixed background geometry. In the simplified context of two dimensions, we show how a method invented to analyze the critical behaviour of spin systems on flat lattices can be adapted to the fluctuating ensemble of curved spacetimes underlying the Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity. We develop a systematic counting of embedded graphs to evaluate the thermodynamic functions of the gravity-matter models in a high- and low-temperature expansion. For the case of the Ising model, we compute the series expansions for the magnetic susceptibility on CDT lattices and their duals up to orders 6 ...

  16. Spread of entanglement and causality

    CERN Document Server

    Casini, Horacio; Mezei, Márk

    2015-01-01

    We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of arXiv:cond-mat/0503393 to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multi...

  17. A causal dispositional account of fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviño, Vanessa; Nuño de la Rosa, Laura

    2016-09-01

    The notion of fitness is usually equated to reproductive success. However, this actualist approach presents some difficulties, mainly the explanatory circularity problem, which have lead philosophers of biology to offer alternative definitions in which fitness and reproductive success are distinguished. In this paper, we argue  that none of these alternatives is satisfactory and, inspired by Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation, we offer a definition of fitness as a causal dispositional property. We argue that, under this framework, the distinctiveness that biologists usually attribute to fitness-namely, the fact that fitness is something different from both the physical traits of an organism and the number of offspring it leaves-can be explained, and the main problems associated with the concept of fitness can be solved. Firstly, we introduce Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation and present our definition of fitness as a causal disposition. We explain in detail each of the elements involved in our definition, namely: the relationship between fitness and the functional dispositions that compose it, the emergent character of fitness, and the context-sensitivity of fitness. Finally, we explain how fitness and realized fitness, as well as expected and realized fitness are distinguished in our approach to fitness as a causal disposition. PMID:27338570

  18. A causal dispositional account of fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviño, Vanessa; Nuño de la Rosa, Laura

    2016-09-01

    The notion of fitness is usually equated to reproductive success. However, this actualist approach presents some difficulties, mainly the explanatory circularity problem, which have lead philosophers of biology to offer alternative definitions in which fitness and reproductive success are distinguished. In this paper, we argue  that none of these alternatives is satisfactory and, inspired by Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation, we offer a definition of fitness as a causal dispositional property. We argue that, under this framework, the distinctiveness that biologists usually attribute to fitness-namely, the fact that fitness is something different from both the physical traits of an organism and the number of offspring it leaves-can be explained, and the main problems associated with the concept of fitness can be solved. Firstly, we introduce Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation and present our definition of fitness as a causal disposition. We explain in detail each of the elements involved in our definition, namely: the relationship between fitness and the functional dispositions that compose it, the emergent character of fitness, and the context-sensitivity of fitness. Finally, we explain how fitness and realized fitness, as well as expected and realized fitness are distinguished in our approach to fitness as a causal disposition.

  19. The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play

    OpenAIRE

    Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

    2012-01-01

    We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection—a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. ...

  20. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups-what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  1. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    York eHagmayer

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analysed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  2. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups-what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

  3. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  4. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  5. Assessing statistical significance in causal graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chindelevitch Leonid

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Causal graphs are an increasingly popular tool for the analysis of biological datasets. In particular, signed causal graphs--directed graphs whose edges additionally have a sign denoting upregulation or downregulation--can be used to model regulatory networks within a cell. Such models allow prediction of downstream effects of regulation of biological entities; conversely, they also enable inference of causative agents behind observed expression changes. However, due to their complex nature, signed causal graph models present special challenges with respect to assessing statistical significance. In this paper we frame and solve two fundamental computational problems that arise in practice when computing appropriate null distributions for hypothesis testing. Results First, we show how to compute a p-value for agreement between observed and model-predicted classifications of gene transcripts as upregulated, downregulated, or neither. Specifically, how likely are the classifications to agree to the same extent under the null distribution of the observed classification being randomized? This problem, which we call "Ternary Dot Product Distribution" owing to its mathematical form, can be viewed as a generalization of Fisher's exact test to ternary variables. We present two computationally efficient algorithms for computing the Ternary Dot Product Distribution and investigate its combinatorial structure analytically and numerically to establish computational complexity bounds. Second, we develop an algorithm for efficiently performing random sampling of causal graphs. This enables p-value computation under a different, equally important null distribution obtained by randomizing the graph topology but keeping fixed its basic structure: connectedness and the positive and negative in- and out-degrees of each vertex. We provide an algorithm for sampling a graph from this distribution uniformly at random. We also highlight theoretical

  6. Exposure to Traffic-related Air Pollution During Pregnancy and Term Low Birth Weight: Estimation of Causal Associations in a Semiparametric Model

    OpenAIRE

    Padula, Amy M.; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B.

    2012-01-01

    Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000–2006. The probability ...

  7. The Systemic, Long-run Relation among Gasoline Demand, Gasoline Price, Income, and Vehicle Ownership in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Liddle, Brantley

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes gasoline consumption per capita, income (GDP per capita), gasoline price, and car ownership per capita for a panel of OECD countries by employing panel unit root and cointegration testing, panel Dynamic and Fully Modified OLS estimations, and panel Granger-causality tests. The four variables are determined to be panel I(1) and cointegrated. Estimated long-run and short-run income elasticities are smaller than what typically had been found previously. Lastly, gasoline consu...

  8. The Causality between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries: Panel Cointegration and Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Mehrara, Mohsen

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and GDP in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. A three-variable model is formulated with oil exports as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from oil revenues and economic growth to education in the oil exporting countries. Yet, education does not have any significant effects on GDP in short- and long-run. It ...

  9. A contextual modeling approach for model-based recommender systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández-Tobías, Ignacio; Campos Soto, Pedro G.; Cantador, Iván; Díez, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40643-0_5 Proceedings of 15th Conference of the Spanish Association for Artificial Intelligence, CAEPIA 2013, Madrid, Spain, September 17-20, 2013. In this paper we present a contextual modeling approach for model-based recommender systems that integrates and exploits both user preferences and contextual signals in a common vector space. Differently to previous work, we conduct a user study acquiring ...

  10. A new approach for Bayesian model averaging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN XiangJun; XIE ZhengHui; WANG AiHui; YANG XiaoChun

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a recently proposed statistical method for calibrating forecast ensembles from numerical weather models.However,successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble.Two methods,namely the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms,are widely used for BMA model training.Both methods have their own respective strengths and weaknesses.In this paper,we first modify the BMA log-likelihood function with the aim of removing the additional limitation that requires that the BMA weights add to one,and then use a limited memory quasi-Newtonian algorithm for solving the nonlinear optimization problem,thereby formulating a new approach for BMA (referred to as BMA-BFGS).Several groups of multi-model soil moisture simulation experiments from three land surface models show that the performance of BMA-BFGS is similar to the MCMC method in terms of simulation accuracy,and that both are superior to the EM algorithm.On the other hand,the computational cost of the BMA-BFGS algorithm is substantially less than for MCMC and is almost equivalent to that for EM.

  11. On causality of extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect both linear and non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task.

  12. Causal Structure and Spacetime Singularities

    CERN Document Server

    Stoica, Ovidiu Cristinel

    2015-01-01

    In General Relativity the metric can be recovered from the structure of the lightcones and a measure giving the volume element. Since the causal structure seems to be simpler than the Lorentzian manifold structure, this suggests that it is more fundamental. But there are cases when seemingly healthy causal structure and measure determine a singular metric. Here it is shown that this is not a bug, but a feature, because big-bang and black hole singularities are instances of this situation. But while the metric is special at singularities, being singular, the causal structure and the measure are not special in an explicit way at singularities. Therefore, considering the causal structure more fundamental than the metric provides a more natural framework to deal with spacetime singularities.

  13. Beyond the Standard Model: A Noncommutative Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Stephan, Christoph A

    2009-01-01

    During the last two decades Alain Connes developed Noncommutative Geometry (NCG), which allows to unify two of the basic theories of modern physics: General Relativity (GR) and the Standard Model (SM) of Particle Physics as classical field theories. In the noncommutative framework the Higgs boson, which had previously to be put in by hand, and many of the ad hoc features of the standard model appear in a natural way. The aim of this presentation is to motivate this unification from basic physical principles and to give a flavour of its derivation. One basic prediction of the noncommutative approach to the SM is that the mass of the Higgs Boson should be of the order of 170 GeV if one assumes the Big Desert. This mass range is with reasonable probability excluded by the Tevatron and therefore it is interesting to investigate models beyond the SM that are compatible with NCG. Going beyond the SM is highly non-trivial within the NCG approach but possible extensions have been found and provide for phenomenologica...

  14. Modeling Negotiation by a Paticipatory Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torii, Daisuke; Ishida, Toru; Bousquet, François

    In a participatory approach by social scientists, role playing games (RPG) are effectively used to understand real thinking and behavior of stakeholders, but RPG is not sufficient to handle a dynamic process like negotiation. In this study, a participatory simulation where user-controlled avatars and autonomous agents coexist is introduced to the participatory approach for modeling negotiation. To establish a modeling methodology of negotiation, we have tackled the following two issues. First, for enabling domain experts to concentrate interaction design for participatory simulation, we have adopted the architecture in which an interaction layer controls agents and have defined three types of interaction descriptions (interaction protocol, interaction scenario and avatar control scenario) to be described. Second, for enabling domain experts and stakeholders to capitalize on participatory simulation, we have established a four-step process for acquiring negotiation model: 1) surveys and interviews to stakeholders, 2) RPG, 3) interaction design, and 4) participatory simulation. Finally, we discussed our methodology through a case study of agricultural economics in the northeast Thailand.

  15. Unified structural equation modeling approach for the analysis of multisubject, multivariate functional MRI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jieun; Zhu, Wei; Chang, Linda; Bentler, Peter M; Ernst, Thomas

    2007-02-01

    The ultimate goal of brain connectivity studies is to propose, test, modify, and compare certain directional brain pathways. Path analysis or structural equation modeling (SEM) is an ideal statistical method for such studies. In this work, we propose a two-stage unified SEM plus GLM (General Linear Model) approach for the analysis of multisubject, multivariate functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series data with subject-level covariates. In Stage 1, we analyze the fMRI multivariate time series for each subject individually via a unified SEM model by combining longitudinal pathways represented by a multivariate autoregressive (MAR) model, and contemporaneous pathways represented by a conventional SEM. In Stage 2, the resulting subject-level path coefficients are merged with subject-level covariates such as gender, age, IQ, etc., to examine the impact of these covariates on effective connectivity via a GLM. Our approach is exemplified via the analysis of an fMRI visual attention experiment. Furthermore, the significant path network from the unified SEM analysis is compared to that from a conventional SEM analysis without incorporating the longitudinal information as well as that from a Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) approach.

  16. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  17. Realist Magic : Objects, Ontology, Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Object-oriented ontology offers a startlingly fresh way to think about causality that takes into account developments in physics since 1900. Causality, argues, Object Oriented Ontology (OOO), is aesthetic. In this book, Timothy Morton explores what it means to say that a thing has come into being, that it is persisting, and that it has ended. Drawing from examples in physics, biology, ecology, art, literature and music, Morton demonstrates the counterintuitive yet elegant explanatory power of...

  18. Modeling in transport phenomena a conceptual approach

    CERN Document Server

    Tosun, Ismail

    2007-01-01

    Modeling in Transport Phenomena, Second Edition presents and clearly explains with example problems the basic concepts and their applications to fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemical reaction engineering and thermodynamics. A balanced approach is presented between analysis and synthesis, students will understand how to use the solution in engineering analysis. Systematic derivations of the equations and the physical significance of each term are given in detail, for students to easily understand and follow up the material. There is a strong incentive in science and engineering to

  19. Learning Why Things Change: The Difference-Based Causality Learner

    CERN Document Server

    Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present the Difference- Based Causality Learner (DBCL), an algorithm for learning a class of discrete-time dynamic models that represents all causation across time by means of difference equations driving change in a system. We motivate this representation with real-world mechanical systems and prove DBCL's correctness for learning structure from time series data, an endeavour that is complicated by the existence of latent derivatives that have to be detected. We also prove that, under common assumptions for causal discovery, DBCL will identify the presence or absence of feedback loops, making the model more useful for predicting the effects of manipulating variables when the system is in equilibrium. We argue analytically and show empirically the advantages of DBCL over vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality models as well as modified forms of Bayesian and constraintbased structure discovery algorithms. Finally, we show that our algorithm can discover causal directions of alpha r...

  20. Nuclear level density: Shell-model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen'kov, Roman; Zelevinsky, Vladimir

    2016-06-01

    Knowledge of the nuclear level density is necessary for understanding various reactions, including those in the stellar environment. Usually the combinatorics of a Fermi gas plus pairing is used for finding the level density. Recently a practical algorithm avoiding diagonalization of huge matrices was developed for calculating the density of many-body nuclear energy levels with certain quantum numbers for a full shell-model Hamiltonian. The underlying physics is that of quantum chaos and intrinsic thermalization in a closed system of interacting particles. We briefly explain this algorithm and, when possible, demonstrate the agreement of the results with those derived from exact diagonalization. The resulting level density is much smoother than that coming from conventional mean-field combinatorics. We study the role of various components of residual interactions in the process of thermalization, stressing the influence of incoherent collision-like processes. The shell-model results for the traditionally used parameters are also compared with standard phenomenological approaches.

  1. Modeling Social Annotation: a Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Plangprasopchok, Anon

    2008-01-01

    Collaborative tagging systems, such as del.icio.us, CiteULike, and others, allow users to annotate objects, e.g., Web pages or scientific papers, with descriptive labels called tags. The social annotations, contributed by thousands of users, can potentially be used to infer categorical knowledge, classify documents or recommend new relevant information. Traditional text inference methods do not make best use of socially-generated data, since they do not take into account variations in individual users' perspectives and vocabulary. In a previous work, we introduced a simple probabilistic model that takes interests of individual annotators into account in order to find hidden topics of annotated objects. Unfortunately, our proposed approach had a number of shortcomings, including overfitting, local maxima and the requirement to specify values for some parameters. In this paper we address these shortcomings in two ways. First, we extend the model to a fully Bayesian framework. Second, we describe an infinite ver...

  2. Granger causal time-dependent source connectivity in the somatosensory network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lin; Sommerlade, Linda; Coffman, Brian; Zhang, Tongsheng; Stephen, Julia M.; Li, Dichen; Wang, Jue; Grebogi, Celso; Schelter, Bjoern

    2015-05-01

    Exploration of transient Granger causal interactions in neural sources of electrophysiological activities provides deeper insights into brain information processing mechanisms. However, the underlying neural patterns are confounded by time-dependent dynamics, non-stationarity and observational noise contamination. Here we investigate transient Granger causal interactions using source time-series of somatosensory evoked magnetoencephalographic (MEG) elicited by air puff stimulation of right index finger and recorded using 306-channel MEG from 21 healthy subjects. A new time-varying connectivity approach, combining renormalised partial directed coherence with state space modelling, is employed to estimate fast changing information flow among the sources. Source analysis confirmed that somatosensory evoked MEG was mainly generated from the contralateral primary somatosensory cortex (SI) and bilateral secondary somatosensory cortices (SII). Transient Granger causality shows a serial processing of somatosensory information, 1) from contralateral SI to contralateral SII, 2) from contralateral SI to ipsilateral SII, 3) from contralateral SII to contralateral SI, and 4) from contralateral SII to ipsilateral SII. These results are consistent with established anatomical connectivity between somatosensory regions and previous source modeling results, thereby providing empirical validation of the time-varying connectivity analysis. We argue that the suggested approach provides novel information regarding transient cortical dynamic connectivity, which previous approaches could not assess.

  3. Large-scale Granger causality analysis on resting-state functional MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Adora M.; Abidin, Anas Zainul; Leistritz, Lutz; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    We demonstrate an approach to measure the information flow between each pair of time series in resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data of the human brain and subsequently recover its underlying network structure. By integrating dimensionality reduction into predictive time series modeling, large-scale Granger Causality (lsGC) analysis method can reveal directed information flow suggestive of causal influence at an individual voxel level, unlike other multivariate approaches. This method quantifies the influence each voxel time series has on every other voxel time series in a multivariate sense and hence contains information about the underlying dynamics of the whole system, which can be used to reveal functionally connected networks within the brain. To identify such networks, we perform non-metric network clustering, such as accomplished by the Louvain method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to recover the motor and visual cortex from resting state human brain fMRI data and compare it with the network recovered from a visuomotor stimulation experiment, where the similarity is measured by the Dice Coefficient (DC). The best DC obtained was 0.59 implying a strong agreement between the two networks. In addition, we thoroughly study the effect of dimensionality reduction in lsGC analysis on network recovery. We conclude that our approach is capable of detecting causal influence between time series in a multivariate sense, which can be used to segment functionally connected networks in the resting-state fMRI.

  4. Kernel canonical-correlation Granger causality for multiple time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guorong; Duan, Xujun; Liao, Wei; Gao, Qing; Chen, Huafu

    2011-04-01

    Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential model estimation problems. However, it is limited to the linear case. Here, we extend the framework of canonical correlation to include the estimation of multivariate nonlinear Granger causality for drawing inference about directed interaction. Its feasibility and effectiveness are verified on simulated data.

  5. Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

  6. Causality, causality, causality: the view of education inputs and outputs from economics

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa Barrow; Cecilia Elena Rouse

    2005-01-01

    Educators and policy makers are increasingly intent on using scientifically-based evidence when making decisions about education policy. Thus, education research today must necessarily be focused on identifying the causal relationships between education inputs and student outcomes. In this paper we discuss methodologies for estimating the causal effect of resources on education outcomes; we also review what we believe to be the best evidence from economics on a few important inputs: spending,...

  7. Causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhani, Sahbi; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia over the period of 1971-2012. The long-run relationship is investigated by the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM). The results of the analysis reveal a positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that the financial development in Tunisia has taken place at the expense of environmental pollution. The Tunisian case also shows a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions. This means that the results do not support the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. In addition, the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using Granger causality models and it concludes that financial development plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.

  8. Multicomponent Equilibrium Models for Testing Geothermometry Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carl D. Palmer; Robert W. Smith; Travis L. McLing

    2013-02-01

    Geothermometry is an important tool for estimating deep reservoir temperature from the geochemical composition of shallower and cooler waters. The underlying assumption of geothermometry is that the waters collected from shallow wells and seeps maintain a chemical signature that reflects equilibrium in the deeper reservoir. Many of the geothermometers used in practice are based on correlation between water temperatures and composition or using thermodynamic calculations based a subset (typically silica, cations or cation ratios) of the dissolved constituents. An alternative approach is to use complete water compositions and equilibrium geochemical modeling to calculate the degree of disequilibrium (saturation index) for large number of potential reservoir minerals as a function of temperature. We have constructed several “forward” geochemical models using The Geochemist’s Workbench to simulate the change in chemical composition of reservoir fluids as they migrate toward the surface. These models explicitly account for the formation (mass and composition) of a steam phase and equilibrium partitioning of volatile components (e.g., CO2, H2S, and H2) into the steam as a result of pressure decreases associated with upward fluid migration from depth. We use the synthetic data generated from these simulations to determine the advantages and limitations of various geothermometry and optimization approaches for estimating the likely conditions (e.g., temperature, pCO2) to which the water was exposed in the deep subsurface. We demonstrate the magnitude of errors that can result from boiling, loss of volatiles, and analytical error from sampling and instrumental analysis. The estimated reservoir temperatures for these scenarios are also compared to conventional geothermometers. These results can help improve estimation of geothermal resource temperature during exploration and early development.

  9. Normalizing the causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula has been derived to evaluate the information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing three types of fundamental mechanisms that govern the marginal entropy change of the flow recipient. A normalized or relative flow measures its importance relative to other mechanisms. In analyzing realistic series, both absolute and relative information flows need to be taken into account, since the normalizers for a pair of reverse flows belong to two different entropy balances; it is quite normal that two identical flows may differ a lot in relative importance in their respective balances. We have reproduced these results with several autoregressive models. We have also shown applications to a climate change problem and a financial analysis problem. For the former, reconfirmed is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole as ...

  10. Causality and Tense - two temporal structure builders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oversteegen, E.

    2005-01-01

    By force of causes precede effects, causality contributes to the temporal meaning of discourse. In case of semantic causal relations, this contribution is straightforward, but in case of epistemic causal relations, it is not. In order to gain insight into the semantics of epistemic causal relations,

  11. Reichenbach on causality in 1923: Scientific inference, coordination, and confirmation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padovani, Flavia

    2015-10-01

    In The Theory of Relativity and A Priori Knowledge (1920b), Reichenbach developed an original account of cognition as coordination of formal structures to empirical ones. One of the most salient features of this account is that it is explicitly not a top-down type of coordination, and in fact it is crucially "directed" by the empirical side. Reichenbach called this feature "the mutuality of coordination" but, in that work, did not elaborate sufficiently on how this is supposed to work. In a paper that he wrote less than two years afterwards (but that he published only in 1932), "The Principle of Causality and the Possibility of its Empirical Confirmation" (1923/1932), he described what seems to be a model for this idea, now within an analysis of causality that results in an account of scientific inference. Recent reassessments of his early proposal do not seem to capture the extent of Reichenbach's original worries. The present paper analyses Reichenbach's early account and suggests a new way to look at his early work. According to it, we perform measurements, individuate parameters, collect and analyse data, by using a "constructive" approach, such as the one with which we formulate and test hypotheses, which paradigmatically requires some simplicity assumptions. Reichenbach's attempt to account for all these aspects in 1923 was obviously limited and naive in many ways, but it shows that, in his view, there were multiple ways in which the idea of "constitution" is embodied in scientific practice. PMID:26386525

  12. SIGNOR: a database of causal relationships between biological entities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfetto, Livia; Briganti, Leonardo; Calderone, Alberto; Perpetuini, Andrea Cerquone; Iannuccelli, Marta; Langone, Francesca; Licata, Luana; Marinkovic, Milica; Mattioni, Anna; Pavlidou, Theodora; Peluso, Daniele; Petrilli, Lucia Lisa; Pirrò, Stefano; Posca, Daniela; Santonico, Elena; Silvestri, Alessandra; Spada, Filomena; Castagnoli, Luisa; Cesareni, Gianni

    2016-01-01

    Assembly of large biochemical networks can be achieved by confronting new cell-specific experimental data with an interaction subspace constrained by prior literature evidence. The SIGnaling Network Open Resource, SIGNOR (available on line at http://signor.uniroma2.it), was developed to support such a strategy by providing a scaffold of prior experimental evidence of causal relationships between biological entities. The core of SIGNOR is a collection of approximately 12,000 manually-annotated causal relationships between over 2800 human proteins participating in signal transduction. Other entities annotated in SIGNOR are complexes, chemicals, phenotypes and stimuli. The information captured in SIGNOR can be represented as a signed directed graph illustrating the activation/inactivation relationships between signalling entities. Each entry is associated to the post-translational modifications that cause the activation/inactivation of the target proteins. More than 4900 modified residues causing a change in protein concentration or activity have been curated and linked to the modifying enzymes (about 351 human kinases and 94 phosphatases). Additional modifications such as ubiquitinations, sumoylations, acetylations and their effect on the modified target proteins are also annotated. This wealth of structured information can support experimental approaches based on multi-parametric analysis of cell systems after physiological or pathological perturbations and to assemble large logic models. PMID:26467481

  13. Cosmic Acceleration from Causal Backreaction with Recursive Nonlinearities

    CERN Document Server

    Bochner, Brett

    2013-01-01

    We revisit the causal backreaction paradigm, in which the need for Dark Energy is eliminated via the generation of an apparent cosmic acceleration from the causal flow of inhomogeneity information coming in towards each observer from distant structure-forming regions. This second-generation formalism incorporates "recursive nonlinearities": the process by which already-established metric perturbations will then act to slow down all future flows of inhomogeneity information. Here, the long-range effects of causal backreaction are now damped, weakening its impact for models that were previously best-fit cosmologies. Nevertheless, we find that causal backreaction can be recovered as a replacement for Dark Energy via the adoption of larger values for the dimensionless `strength' of the clustering evolution functions being modeled -- a change justified by the hierarchical nature of clustering and virialization in the universe, occurring on multiple cosmic length scales simultaneously. With this, and with one new m...

  14. When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schomaker

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria, as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3 or CD4 percentage (CD4% <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS: ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1, with a median (first; third quartile CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3 (356; 895 and median (first; third quartile CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%. The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5 (no ART to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5% (ART irrespective of CD4 value. Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3 or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5% and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5% after 3 y, respectively. The analysis

  15. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Sean G.; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N.

    2008-01-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study (study 2). Although participants did not engage in explicit evaluation of the faces, the amygdala response changed as a function of face trustworthiness. An area in the right amygdala showed a negative linear response—as the untrustworthiness of faces increased so did the amygdala response. Areas in the left and right putamen, the latter area extended into the anterior insula, showed a similar negative linear response. The response in the left amygdala was quadratic—strongest for faces on both extremes of the trustworthiness dimension. The medial prefrontal cortex and precuneus also showed a quadratic response, but their response was strongest to faces in the middle range of the trustworthiness dimension. PMID:19015102

  16. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorov, Alexander; Baron, Sean G; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N

    2008-06-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study (study 2). Although participants did not engage in explicit evaluation of the faces, the amygdala response changed as a function of face trustworthiness. An area in the right amygdala showed a negative linear response-as the untrustworthiness of faces increased so did the amygdala response. Areas in the left and right putamen, the latter area extended into the anterior insula, showed a similar negative linear response. The response in the left amygdala was quadratic--strongest for faces on both extremes of the trustworthiness dimension. The medial prefrontal cortex and precuneus also showed a quadratic response, but their response was strongest to faces in the middle range of the trustworthiness dimension. PMID:19015102

  17. Implementing Ethics Auditing Model: New Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merle Rihma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are to test how does enhanced ethics audit model as a new tool for management in Estonian companies work and to investigate through ethics audit model the hidden ethical risks in information technology which occur in everyday work and may be of harm to stakeholders’ interests. Carrying out ethics audit requires the diversity of research methods. Therefore throughout the research the authors took into account triangulation method. The research was conducted through qualitative approach and an analysis on a case study, which also included interviews, questionnaires and observations. Reason why authors audited ethical aspects of company´s info technology field is due to the fact that info technology as such is an area which is not handled in any CSR reports but may cause serious ethical risks to company ́s stakeholders. The article concludes with suggesting an extension of the ethics audit model for evaluating ethical risks and for companies to help to raise employees’- awareness about safe internet using and responsibility towards protecting the organization’s information technology and to prevent ethical and moral risks occurring.

  18. Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).

  19. Temporal expression profiling identifies pathways mediating effect of causal variant on phenotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saumya Gupta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Even with identification of multiple causal genetic variants for common human diseases, understanding the molecular processes mediating the causal variants' effect on the disease remains a challenge. This understanding is crucial for the development of therapeutic strategies to prevent and treat disease. While static profiling of gene expression is primarily used to get insights into the biological bases of diseases, it makes differentiating the causative from the correlative effects difficult, as the dynamics of the underlying biological processes are not monitored. Using yeast as a model, we studied genome-wide gene expression dynamics in the presence of a causal variant as the sole genetic determinant, and performed allele-specific functional validation to delineate the causal effects of the genetic variant on the phenotype. Here, we characterized the precise genetic effects of a functional MKT1 allelic variant in sporulation efficiency variation. A mathematical model describing meiotic landmark events and conditional activation of MKT1 expression during sporulation specified an early meiotic role of this variant. By analyzing the early meiotic genome-wide transcriptional response, we demonstrate an MKT1-dependent role of novel modulators, namely, RTG1/3, regulators of mitochondrial retrograde signaling, and DAL82, regulator of nitrogen starvation, in additively effecting sporulation efficiency. In the presence of functional MKT1 allele, better respiration during early sporulation was observed, which was dependent on the mitochondrial retrograde regulator, RTG3. Furthermore, our approach showed that MKT1 contributes to sporulation independent of Puf3, an RNA-binding protein that steady-state transcription profiling studies have suggested to mediate MKT1-pleiotropic effects during mitotic growth. These results uncover interesting regulatory links between meiosis and mitochondrial retrograde signaling. In this study, we highlight the advantage

  20. Approaches and models of intercultural education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván Manuel Sánchez Fontalvo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Needed to be aware of the need to build an intercultural society, awareness must be assumed in all social spheres, where stands the role play education. A role of transcendental, since it must promote educational spaces to form people with virtues and powers that allow them to live together / as in multicultural contexts and social diversities (sometimes uneven in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, and foster the development of feelings of civic belonging shared before the neighborhood, city, region and country, allowing them concern and critical judgement to marginalization, poverty, misery and inequitable distribution of wealth, causes of structural violence, but at the same time, wanting to work for the welfare and transformation of these scenarios. Since these budgets, it is important to know the approaches and models of intercultural education that have been developed so far, analysing their impact on the contexts educational where apply.   

  1. Causality between Electricity Consumption & Economic growth : Empirical Evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Geetu; Sahu, Naresh Chandra

    2009-01-01

    In this study ,an attempt has been made to investigate causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in India by adopting Granger Engel causality model for 1960-2006 period .Test results shows that electricity consumption has positive effect on economic growth. The paper support for the reforms in power sector and indicates that electricity act as a catalyst in realizing various social and economic goals.

  2. An empirical Bayesian approach for model-based inference of cellular signaling networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klinke David J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A common challenge in systems biology is to infer mechanistic descriptions of biological process given limited observations of a biological system. Mathematical models are frequently used to represent a belief about the causal relationships among proteins within a signaling network. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for inferring the validity of those beliefs in the context of the available data. However, efficient sampling of high-dimensional parameter space and appropriate convergence criteria provide barriers for implementing an empirical Bayesian approach. The objective of this study was to apply an Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to a typical study of cellular signaling pathways. Results As an illustrative example, a kinetic model for the early signaling events associated with the epidermal growth factor (EGF signaling network was calibrated against dynamic measurements observed in primary rat hepatocytes. A convergence criterion, based upon the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, was applied to the model predictions. The posterior distributions of the parameters exhibited complicated structure, including significant covariance between specific parameters and a broad range of variance among the parameters. The model predictions, in contrast, were narrowly distributed and were used to identify areas of agreement among a collection of experimental studies. Conclusion In summary, an empirical Bayesian approach was developed for inferring the confidence that one can place in a particular model that describes signal transduction mechanisms and for inferring inconsistencies in experimental measurements.

  3. Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andres; Hall, Jim W.; French, Jon; Sutherland, James; van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2016-03-01

    As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a

  4. Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulecky, Donald C

    2007-10-01

    Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

  5. Cognitive ageing on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: A novel Structural Equation Modelling framework with causal assumptions based on A Theory of Visual Attention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon eNielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the effects of normal ageing on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive ageing affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modelling (SEM; Model 2, informed by functional structures that were modelled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1. The results show that ageing effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM capacity (Model 2. These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective ageing effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting ageing effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive ageing effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

  6. Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L Inge

    2014-01-01

    We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

  7. Statistics, Causality and Bell's theorem

    CERN Document Server

    Gill, Richard D

    2012-01-01

    Bell's (1964) theorem is popularly supposed to establish the non-locality of quantum physics as a mathematical-physical theory. Building from this, observed violation of Bell's inequality in experiments such as that of Aspect and coworkers (1982) is popularly supposed to provide empirical proof of non-locality in the real world. This paper reviews recent work on Bell's theorem, linking it to issues in causality as understood by statisticians. The paper starts with a new proof of a strong (finite sample) version of Bell's theorem which relies only on elementary arithmetic and (counting) probability. This proof underscores the fact that Bell's theorem tells us that quantum theory is incompatible with the conjunction of three cherished and formerly uncontroversial physical principles, nicknamed here locality, realism, and freedom. The first, locality, is obviously connected to causality: causal influences need time to propagate spatially. Less obviously, the other two principles, realism and freedom, are also fo...

  8. Gravitation, Causality, and Quantum Consistency

    CERN Document Server

    Hertzberg, Mark P

    2016-01-01

    We examine the role of consistency with causality and quantum mechanics in determining the properties of gravitation. We begin by constructing two different classes of interacting theories of massless spin 2 particles -- gravitons. One involves coupling the graviton with the lowest number of derivatives to matter, the other involves coupling the graviton with higher derivatives to matter, making use of the linearized Riemann tensor. The first class requires an infinite tower of terms for consistency, which is known to lead uniquely to general relativity. The second class only requires a finite number of terms for consistency, which appears as a new class of theories of massless spin 2. We recap the causal consistency of general relativity and show how this fails in the second class for the special case of coupling to photons, exploiting related calculations in the literature. In an upcoming publication [1] this result is generalized to a much broader set of theories. Then, as a causal modification of general ...

  9. Causality and Primordial Tensor Modes

    CERN Document Server

    Baumann, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    We introduce the real space correlation function of $B$-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a probe of superhorizon tensor perturbations created by inflation. By causality, any non-inflationary mechanism for gravitational wave production after reheating, like global phase transitions or cosmic strings, must have vanishing correlations for angular separations greater than the angle subtended by the particle horizon at recombination, i.e. $\\theta \\gtrsim 2^\\circ$. Since ordinary $B$-modes are defined non-locally in terms of the Stokes parameters $Q$ and $U$ and therefore don't have to respect causality, special care is taken to define `causal $\\tilde B$-modes' for the analysis. We compute the real space $\\tilde B$-mode correlation function for inflation and discuss its detectability on superhorizon scales where it provides an unambiguous test of inflationary gravitational waves. The correct identification of inflationary tensor modes is crucial since it relates directly to the energy s...

  10. Establishing Causality in Complex Human Interactions: Identifying Breakdowns of Intentionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodison, Peter; Johnson, Peter; Thoms, Joanne

    People in complex scenarios face the challenge of understanding the purpose and effect of other human and computational behaviour on their own goals through intent recognition. They are left asking what caused person or system ‘x’ to do that? The necessity to provide this support human-computer interaction has increased alongside the deployment of autonomous systems that are to some degree unsupervised. This paper aims to examine intent recognition as a form of decision making about causality in complex systems. By finding the needs and limitations of this decision mechanism it is hoped this can be applied to the design of systems to support the awareness of information cues and reduce the number of intent recognition breakdowns between people and autonomous systems. The paper outlines theoretical foundations for this approach using simulation theory and process models of intention. The notion of breakdowns is then applied to intent recognition breakdowns in a diary study to gain insight into the phenomena.

  11. The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate. A Ardl Causality Analysis for the Case Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between the shadow economy (SE and unemployment rates (both registered and ILO for the case of Romania using Pesaran et al.(2001 bounds tests approach for cointegration. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated using the currency demand approach based on VECM models, stating that its size is decreasing over the analyzed period, from 36.5% at the end of 2000 to about 31.5% of real GDP at the middle of 2010. To investigate the long-run causal linkages and short-run dynamics between shadow economy and unemployment rate, ARDL cointegration approach is applied. Cointegration test results shows that in short-run both ILO and registered unemployment rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the size of the shadow economy, while in the long-run the unemployment rates have a positive effect on shadow economy. The ARDL causality results revealed the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality that runs from unemployment rates (registered or ILO to shadow economy. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the both causal relationships.

  12. Comparison Analysis: Granger Causality and New Causality and Their Applications to Motor Imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Sanqing; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Jianhai; Kong, Wanzeng; Cao, Yu; Kozma, Robert

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we first point out a fatal drawback that the widely used Granger causality (GC) needs to estimate the autoregressive model, which is equivalent to taking a series of backward recursive operations which are infeasible in many irreversible chemical reaction models. Thus, new causality (NC) proposed by Hu et al. (2011) is theoretically shown to be more sensitive to reveal true causality than GC. We then apply GC and NC to motor imagery (MI) which is an important mental process in cognitive neuroscience and psychology and has received growing attention for a long time. We study causality flow during MI using scalp electroencephalograms from nine subjects in Brain-computer interface competition IV held in 2008. We are interested in three regions: Cz (central area of the cerebral cortex), C3 (left area of the cerebral cortex), and C4 (right area of the cerebral cortex) which are considered to be optimal locations for recognizing MI states in the literature. Our results show that: 1) there is strong directional connectivity from Cz to C3/C4 during left- and right-hand MIs based on GC and NC; 2) during left-hand MI, there is directional connectivity from C4 to C3 based on GC and NC; 3) during right-hand MI, there is strong directional connectivity from C3 to C4 which is much clearly revealed by NC than by GC, i.e., NC largely improves the classification rate; and 4) NC is demonstrated to be much more sensitive to reveal causal influence between different brain regions than GC. PMID:26099149

  13. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    OpenAIRE

    N. Kayastha

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of models. One of multi modelling approaches called "committee modelling" is one of the topics in part of this study. Special attention is given to the so-called “fuzzy committee” approach to hydrological...

  14. Causal association rule mining methods based on fuzzy state description

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liang Kaijian; Liang Quan; Yang Bingru

    2006-01-01

    Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description framework, the generalized cell Automation that can synthetically process fuzzy indeterminacy and random indeterminacy and generalized inductive logic causal model is brought forward. On this basis, a kind of the new method that can discover causal association rules is provded. According to the causal information of standard sample space and commonly sample space,through constructing its state (abnormality) relation matrix, causal association rules can be gained by using inductive reasoning mechanism. The estimate of this algorithm complexity is given,and its validity is proved through case.

  15. Message-passing approach for recurrent-state epidemic models on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Munik; Scarpino, Samuel V.; Moore, Cristopher

    2015-08-01

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS and SIRS where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We demonstrate that this approach well approximates results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation and that its accuracy is often superior to the pair approximation (which also takes second-order correlations into account). Moreover, our approach is more computationally efficient than the pair approximation, especially for complex epidemic models: the number of variables in our DMP approach grows as 2 m k where m is the number of edges and k is the number of states, as opposed to m k2 for the pair approximation. We suspect that the resulting reduction in computational effort, as well as the conceptual simplicity of DMP, will make it a useful tool in epidemic modeling, especially for high-dimensional inference tasks.

  16. A Causal Rhythm Grouping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karl Kristoffer

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a method to identify segment boundaries in music. The method is based on a multi-step model; first a features is measured from the audio, then a measure of rhythm is calculated from the feature, the diagonal of a self-similarity matrix is calculated, and finally the segment bo...

  17. Globally conditioned Granger causality in brain-brain and brain-heart interactions: a combined heart rate variability/ultra-high-field (7 T) functional magnetic resonance imaging study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggento, Andrea; Bianciardi, Marta; Passamonti, Luca; Wald, Lawrence L; Guerrisi, Maria; Barbieri, Riccardo; Toschi, Nicola

    2016-05-13

    The causal, directed interactions between brain regions at rest (brain-brain networks) and between resting-state brain activity and autonomic nervous system (ANS) outflow (brain-heart links) have not been completely elucidated. We collected 7 T resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data with simultaneous respiration and heartbeat recordings in nine healthy volunteers to investigate (i) the causal interactions between cortical and subcortical brain regions at rest and (ii) the causal interactions between resting-state brain activity and the ANS as quantified through a probabilistic, point-process-based heartbeat model which generates dynamical estimates for sympathetic and parasympathetic activity as well as sympathovagal balance. Given the high amount of information shared between brain-derived signals, we compared the results of traditional bivariate Granger causality (GC) with a globally conditioned approach which evaluated the additional influence of each brain region on the causal target while factoring out effects concomitantly mediated by other brain regions. The bivariate approach resulted in a large number of possibly spurious causal brain-brain links, while, using the globally conditioned approach, we demonstrated the existence of significant selective causal links between cortical/subcortical brain regions and sympathetic and parasympathetic modulation as well as sympathovagal balance. In particular, we demonstrated a causal role of the amygdala, hypothalamus, brainstem and, among others, medial, middle and superior frontal gyri, superior temporal pole, paracentral lobule and cerebellar regions in modulating the so-called central autonomic network (CAN). In summary, we show that, provided proper conditioning is employed to eliminate spurious causalities, ultra-high-field functional imaging coupled with physiological signal acquisition and GC analysis is able to quantify directed brain-brain and brain-heart interactions reflecting

  18. Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation. (author)

  19. Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation.

  20. Causal feedbacks in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.; Brovkin, V.; Lenton, T.M.; Ye, H.; Deyle, E.; Sugihara, G.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical association between temperature and greenhouse gases over glacial cycles is well documented1, but causality behind this correlation remains difficult to extract directly from the data. A time lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature—originally thought to hint at a driving role for tem