WorldWideScience

Sample records for causal model approach

  1. Representation and reasoning: a causal model approach

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolic, M.

    2014-01-01

    How do we represent our world and how do we use these representations to reason about it? The three studies reported in this thesis explored different aspects of the answer to this question. Even though these investigations offered diverse angles, they all originated from the same psychological theory of representation and reasoning. This is the idea that people represent the world and reason about it by constructing dynamic qualitative causal networks. The first study investigated how mock j...

  2. A developmental approach to learning causal models for cyber security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugan, Jonathan

    2013-05-01

    To keep pace with our adversaries, we must expand the scope of machine learning and reasoning to address the breadth of possible attacks. One approach is to employ an algorithm to learn a set of causal models that describes the entire cyber network and each host end node. Such a learning algorithm would run continuously on the system and monitor activity in real time. With a set of causal models, the algorithm could anticipate novel attacks, take actions to thwart them, and predict the second-order effects flood of information, and the algorithm would have to determine which streams of that flood were relevant in which situations. This paper will present the results of efforts toward the application of a developmental learning algorithm to the problem of cyber security. The algorithm is modeled on the principles of human developmental learning and is designed to allow an agent to learn about the computer system in which it resides through active exploration. Children are flexible learners who acquire knowledge by actively exploring their environment and making predictions about what they will find,1, 2 and our algorithm is inspired by the work of the developmental psychologist Jean Piaget.3 Piaget described how children construct knowledge in stages and learn new concepts on top of those they already know. Developmental learning allows our algorithm to focus on subsets of the environment that are most helpful for learning given its current knowledge. In experiments, the algorithm was able to learn the conditions for file exfiltration and use that knowledge to protect sensitive files.

  3. Renormalization group approach to causal bulk viscous cosmological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belinchon, J A [Grupo Inter-Universitario de Analisis Dimensional, Dept. Fisica ETS Arquitectura UPM, Av. Juan de Herrera 4, Madrid (Spain); Harko, T [Department of Physics, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong (China); Mak, M K [Department of Physics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong (China)

    2002-06-07

    The renormalization group method is applied to the study of homogeneous and flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker type universes, filled with a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid. The starting point of the study is the consideration of the scaling properties of the gravitational field equations, the causal evolution equation of the bulk viscous pressure and the equations of state. The requirement of scale invariance imposes strong constraints on the temporal evolution of the bulk viscosity coefficient, temperature and relaxation time, thus leading to the possibility of obtaining the bulk viscosity coefficient-energy density dependence. For a cosmological model with bulk viscosity coefficient proportional to the Hubble parameter, we perform the analysis of the renormalization group flow around the scale-invariant fixed point, thereby obtaining the long-time behaviour of the scale factor.

  4. Renormalization group approach to causal bulk viscous cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The renormalization group method is applied to the study of homogeneous and flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker type universes, filled with a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid. The starting point of the study is the consideration of the scaling properties of the gravitational field equations, the causal evolution equation of the bulk viscous pressure and the equations of state. The requirement of scale invariance imposes strong constraints on the temporal evolution of the bulk viscosity coefficient, temperature and relaxation time, thus leading to the possibility of obtaining the bulk viscosity coefficient-energy density dependence. For a cosmological model with bulk viscosity coefficient proportional to the Hubble parameter, we perform the analysis of the renormalization group flow around the scale-invariant fixed point, thereby obtaining the long-time behaviour of the scale factor

  5. A novel extended Granger Causal Model approach demonstrates brain hemispheric differences during face recognition learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Ge

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Two main approaches in exploring causal relationships in biological systems using time-series data are the application of Dynamic Causal model (DCM and Granger Causal model (GCM. These have been extensively applied to brain imaging data and are also readily applicable to a wide range of temporal changes involving genes, proteins or metabolic pathways. However, these two approaches have always been considered to be radically different from each other and therefore used independently. Here we present a novel approach which is an extension of Granger Causal model and also shares the features of the bilinear approximation of Dynamic Causal model. We have first tested the efficacy of the extended GCM by applying it extensively in toy models in both time and frequency domains and then applied it to local field potential recording data collected from in vivo multi-electrode array experiments. We demonstrate face discrimination learning-induced changes in inter- and intra-hemispheric connectivity and in the hemispheric predominance of theta and gamma frequency oscillations in sheep inferotemporal cortex. The results provide the first evidence for connectivity changes between and within left and right inferotemporal cortexes as a result of face recognition learning.

  6. A Novel Extended Granger Causal Model Approach Demonstrates Brain Hemispheric Differences during Face Recognition Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Kendrick, Keith M.; Feng, Jianfeng

    2009-01-01

    Two main approaches in exploring causal relationships in biological systems using time-series data are the application of Dynamic Causal model (DCM) and Granger Causal model (GCM). These have been extensively applied to brain imaging data and are also readily applicable to a wide range of temporal changes involving genes, proteins or metabolic pathways. However, these two approaches have always been considered to be radically different from each other and therefore used independently. Here we present a novel approach which is an extension of Granger Causal model and also shares the features of the bilinear approximation of Dynamic Causal model. We have first tested the efficacy of the extended GCM by applying it extensively in toy models in both time and frequency domains and then applied it to local field potential recording data collected from in vivo multi-electrode array experiments. We demonstrate face discrimination learning-induced changes in inter- and intra-hemispheric connectivity and in the hemispheric predominance of theta and gamma frequency oscillations in sheep inferotemporal cortex. The results provide the first evidence for connectivity changes between and within left and right inferotemporal cortexes as a result of face recognition learning. PMID:19936225

  7. Review of aerospace engineering cost modelling: The genetic causal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, R.; Raghunathan, S.; Price, M.

    2004-11-01

    The primary intention of this paper is to review the current state of the art in engineering cost modelling as applied to aerospace. This is a topic of current interest and in addressing the literature, the presented work also sets out some of the recognised definitions of cost that relate to the engineering domain. The paper does not attempt to address the higher-level financial sector but rather focuses on the costing issues directly relevant to the engineering process, primarily those of design and manufacture. This is of more contemporary interest as there is now a shift towards the analysis of the influence of cost, as defined in more engineering related terms; in an attempt to link into integrated product and process development (IPPD) within a concurrent engineering environment. Consequently, the cost definitions are reviewed in the context of the nature of cost as applicable to the engineering process stages: from bidding through to design, to manufacture, to procurement and ultimately, to operation. The linkage and integration of design and manufacture is addressed in some detail. This leads naturally to the concept of engineers influencing and controlling cost within their own domain rather than trusting this to financers who have little control over the cause of cost. In terms of influence, the engineer creates the potential for cost and in a concurrent environment this requires models that integrate cost into the decision making process.

  8. When One Model Casts Doubt on Another: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach to Causal Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2011-01-01

    Discounting is a phenomenon in causal reasoning in which the presence of one cause casts doubt on another. We provide a survey of the descriptive and formal models that attempt to explain the discounting process and summarize what current models do not account for and where room for improvement exists. We propose a levels-of-analysis framework…

  9. A Cognitive Mapping Approach to Business Models: Representing Causal Structures and Mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Furnari, S.

    2015-01-01

    Research has highlighted the cognitive nature of the business model intended as a cognitive representation describing a business’ value creation and value capture activities. Whereas the content of the business model has been extensively investigated from this perspective, less attention has been paid to the business model’s causal structure – i.e. the pattern of causeeffect relations that, in top managers’ or entrepreneurs’ understandings, link value creation and value capture activities. Bu...

  10. A Causal, Data-driven Approach to Modeling the Kepler Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dun; Hogg, David W.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    2016-09-01

    Astronomical observations are affected by several kinds of noise, each with its own causal source; there is photon noise, stochastic source variability, and residuals coming from imperfect calibration of the detector or telescope. The precision of NASA Kepler photometry for exoplanet science—the most precise photometric measurements of stars ever made—appears to be limited by unknown or untracked variations in spacecraft pointing and temperature, and unmodeled stellar variability. Here, we present the causal pixel model (CPM) for Kepler data, a data-driven model intended to capture variability but preserve transit signals. The CPM works at the pixel level so that it can capture very fine-grained information about the variation of the spacecraft. The CPM models the systematic effects in the time series of a pixel using the pixels of many other stars and the assumption that any shared signal in these causally disconnected light curves is caused by instrumental effects. In addition, we use the target star’s future and past (autoregression). By appropriately separating, for each data point, the data into training and test sets, we ensure that information about any transit will be perfectly isolated from the model. The method has four tuning parameters—the number of predictor stars or pixels, the autoregressive window size, and two L2-regularization amplitudes for model components, which we set by cross-validation. We determine values for tuning parameters that works well for most of the stars and apply the method to a corresponding set of target stars. We find that CPM can consistently produce low-noise light curves. In this paper, we demonstrate that pixel-level de-trending is possible while retaining transit signals, and we think that methods like CPM are generally applicable and might be useful for K2, TESS, etc., where the data are not clean postage stamps like Kepler.

  11. Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  12. Causal reasoning with mental models

    OpenAIRE

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews e...

  13. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  14. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  15. Causal Models for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neysis Hernández Díaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work a study about the process of risk management in major schools in the world. The project management tools worldwide highlights the need to redefine risk management processes. From the information obtained it is proposed the use of causal models for risk analysis based on information from the project or company, say risks and the influence thereof on the costs, human capital and project requirements and detect the damages of a number of tasks without tribute to the development of the project. A study on the use of causal models as knowledge representation techniques causal, among which are the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (DCM and Bayesian networks, with the most favorable MCD technique to use because it allows modeling the risk information witho ut having a knowledge base either itemize.

  16. A causal net approach to relativistic quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateson, R. D.

    2012-05-01

    In this paper we discuss a causal network approach to describing relativistic quantum mechanics. Each vertex on the causal net represents a possible point event or particle observation. By constructing the simplest causal net based on Reichenbach-like conjunctive forks in proper time we can exactly derive the 1+1 dimension Dirac equation for a relativistic fermion and correctly model quantum mechanical statistics. Symmetries of the net provide various quantum mechanical effects such as quantum uncertainty and wavefunction, phase, spin, negative energy states and the effect of a potential. The causal net can be embedded in 3+1 dimensions and is consistent with the conventional Dirac equation. In the low velocity limit the causal net approximates to the Schrodinger equation and Pauli equation for an electromagnetic field. Extending to different momentum states the net is compatible with the Feynman path integral approach to quantum mechanics that allows calculation of well known quantum phenomena such as diffraction.

  17. A causal net approach to relativistic quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we discuss a causal network approach to describing relativistic quantum mechanics. Each vertex on the causal net represents a possible point event or particle observation. By constructing the simplest causal net based on Reichenbach-like conjunctive forks in proper time we can exactly derive the 1+1 dimension Dirac equation for a relativistic fermion and correctly model quantum mechanical statistics. Symmetries of the net provide various quantum mechanical effects such as quantum uncertainty and wavefunction, phase, spin, negative energy states and the effect of a potential. The causal net can be embedded in 3+1 dimensions and is consistent with the conventional Dirac equation. In the low velocity limit the causal net approximates to the Schrodinger equation and Pauli equation for an electromagnetic field. Extending to different momentum states the net is compatible with the Feynman path integral approach to quantum mechanics that allows calculation of well known quantum phenomena such as diffraction.

  18. Causal Rasch models

    OpenAIRE

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates...

  19. Causal Rasch models

    OpenAIRE

    WilliamPFisher; A.JacksonStenner; MarkStone

    2013-01-01

    Rasch’s unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates...

  20. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn N Saxe

    Full Text Available Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study. Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study. Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment. The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro and high-level (macro insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

  1. Estimating causal structure using conditional DAG models

    OpenAIRE

    Oates, Chris J.; Smith, Jim Q.; Mukherjee, Sach

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers inference of causal structure in a class of graphical models called "conditional DAGs". These are directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with two kinds of variables, primary and secondary. The secondary variables are used to aid in estimation of causal relationships between the primary variables. We give causal semantics for this model class and prove that, under certain assumptions, the direction of causal influence is identifiable from the joint observational distribution ...

  2. Bayesian Discovery of Linear Acyclic Causal Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hoyer, Patrik O

    2012-01-01

    Methods for automated discovery of causal relationships from non-interventional data have received much attention recently. A widely used and well understood model family is given by linear acyclic causal models (recursive structural equation models). For Gaussian data both constraint-based methods (Spirtes et al., 1993; Pearl, 2000) (which output a single equivalence class) and Bayesian score-based methods (Geiger and Heckerman, 1994) (which assign relative scores to the equivalence classes) are available. On the contrary, all current methods able to utilize non-Gaussianity in the data (Shimizu et al., 2006; Hoyer et al., 2008) always return only a single graph or a single equivalence class, and so are fundamentally unable to express the degree of certainty attached to that output. In this paper we develop a Bayesian score-based approach able to take advantage of non-Gaussianity when estimating linear acyclic causal models, and we empirically demonstrate that, at least on very modest size networks, its accur...

  3. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  4. Spin foam models as energetic causal sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortês, Marina; Smolin, Lee

    2016-04-01

    Energetic causal sets are causal sets endowed by a flow of energy-momentum between causally related events. These incorporate a novel mechanism for the emergence of space-time from causal relations [M. Cortês and L. Smolin, Phys. Rev. D 90, 084007 (2014); Phys. Rev. D 90, 044035 (2014)]. Here we construct a spin foam model which is also an energetic causal set model. This model is closely related to the model introduced in parallel by Wolfgang Wieland in [Classical Quantum Gravity 32, 015016 (2015)]. What makes a spin foam model also an energetic causal set is Wieland's identification of new degrees of freedom analogous to momenta, conserved at events (or four-simplices), whose norms are not mass, but the volume of tetrahedra. This realizes the torsion constraints, which are missing in previous spin foam models, and are needed to relate the connection dynamics to those of the metric, as in general relativity. This identification makes it possible to apply the new mechanism for the emergence of space-time to a spin foam model. Our formulation also makes use of Markopoulou's causal formulation of spin foams [arXiv:gr-qc/9704013]. These are generated by evolving spin networks with dual Pachner moves. This endows the spin foam history with causal structure given by a partial ordering of the events which are dual to four-simplices.

  5. Compact Representations of Extended Causal Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Joseph Y.; Hitchcock, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    Judea Pearl (2000) was the first to propose a definition of actual causation using causal models. A number of authors have suggested that an adequate account of actual causation must appeal not only to causal structure but also to considerations of "normality." In Halpern and Hitchcock (2011), we offer a definition of actual causation…

  6. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Information technology induced communications (ICTs have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management (CRM has emerged as an offshoot to technological breakthrough as it ensured service-encapsulation by integrating people, process and technology. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in a relatively novel business-philosophy – CRM. The study has been conducted on the largest public sector bank of India - State bank of India (SBI at Kolkata which has successfully completed its decade-long operational automation in the year 2008. The study used structural equation modeling (SEM to justify the proposed model construct and causal loop diagramming (CLD to depict the negative and positive linkages between the variables.

  7. Dental Caries Risk Studies Revisited: Causal Approaches Needed for Future Inquiries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorthe Holst

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of high-risk individuals and the multi-risk approach are common inquiries in caries risk epidemiology. These studies prepared the ground for future studies; specific hypotheses about causal patterns can now be formulated and tested applying advanced statistical methods designed for causal studies, such as structural equation modeling, path analysis and multilevel modeling. Causal studies should employ measurements, analyses and interpretation of findings, which are in accordance to causal aims. Examples of causal empirical studies from medical and oral research are presented.

  8. The role of causal links in performance measurement models

    OpenAIRE

    Kasperskaya, Yulia; Tayles, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Purpose: Several well-known managerial accounting performance measurement models rely on causal assumptions. Whilst users of the models express satisfaction and link them with improved organizational performance, academic research, of the realworld applications, shows few reliable statistical associations. This paper provides a discussion on the"problematic" of causality in a performance measurement setting. Design/methodology/approach: This is a conceptual study based on an analysis...

  9. Ten simple rules for dynamic causal modeling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stephan, K.E.; Penny, W.D.; Moran, R.J.; Ouden, H.E.M. den; Daunizeau, J.; Friston, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a generic Bayesian framework for inferring hidden neuronal states from measurements of brain activity. It provides posterior estimates of neurobiologically interpretable quantities such as the effective strength of synaptic connections among neuronal populations and

  10. Dental Caries Risk Studies Revisited: Causal Approaches Needed for Future Inquiries

    OpenAIRE

    Dorthe Holst; Vilma Brukienė; Jolanta Aleksejūnienė

    2009-01-01

    Prediction of high-risk individuals and the multi-risk approach are common inquiries in caries risk epidemiology. These studies prepared the ground for future studies; specific hypotheses about causal patterns can now be formulated and tested applying advanced statistical methods designed for causal studies, such as structural equation modeling, path analysis and multilevel modeling. Causal studies should employ measurements, analyses and interpretation of findings, which are in accordance to...

  11. A Causal Model for Diagnostic Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Guoqiang; CHENG Hu

    2000-01-01

    Up to now, there have been many methods for knowledge representation and reasoning in causal networks, but few of them include the research on the coactions of nodes. In practice, ignoring these coactions may influence the accuracy of reasoning and even give rise to incorrect reasoning. In this paper, based on multilayer causal networks, the definitions on coaction nodes are given to construct a new causal network called Coaction Causal Network, which serves to construct a model of neural network for diagnosis followed by fuzzy reasoning, and then the activation rules are given and neural computing methods are used to finish the diagnostic reasoning. These methods are proved in theory and a method of computing the number of solutions for the diagnostic reasoning is given. Finally, the experiments and the conclusions are presented.

  12. Dynamic causal models and autopoietic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models) for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated. PMID:18575681

  13. Imposing causality on a matrix model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce a new matrix model that describes Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in two dimensions. In order to do so, we introduce a new, simpler definition of 2D CDT and show it to be equivalent to the old one. The model makes use of ideas from dually weighted matrix models, combined with multi-matrix models, and can be studied by the method of character expansion.

  14. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Gerald

    2015-01-01

    Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved) that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; (1)]. However, network approaches to symptom interaction [i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., (2), for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)] are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth non-linear dynamical systems theory (NLDST). The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (3) to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning) and universal (e.g., causal) processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments. PMID:26635639

  15. Causal models for performance evaluation of added-value operations

    OpenAIRE

    Zuñiga Alcaraz, Catya Atziry

    2012-01-01

    The present PhD thesis report has been elaborated as a compendium of publications, in which diverse Causal Models have been developed to assist in the decision making process using a cause-effect relationship approach inherent in the system. A brief description of the items included in the doctoral thesis. The document is organized in four different parts. First, the Chapter called “Basic Notions” introduces the basic notions and a general perspective on the systems approach. Particular in...

  16. Ten simple rules for dynamic causal modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan, K E; Penny, W.D.; Moran, R. J.; den Ouden, H.E.M.; Daunizeau, J.; Friston, K J

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a generic Bayesian framework for inferring hidden neuronal states from measurements of brain activity. It provides posterior estimates of neurobiologically interpretable quantities such as the effective strength of synaptic connections among neuronal populations and their context-dependent modulation. DCM is increasingly used in the analysis of a wide range of neuroimaging and electrophysiological data. Given the relative complexity of DCM, compared to convent...

  17. Musical expectation modelling from audio : a causal mid-level approach to predictive representation and learning of spectro-temporal events

    OpenAIRE

    Hazan, Amaury

    2010-01-01

    We develop in this thesis a computational model of music expectation, which may be one of the most important aspects in music listening. Many phenomenons related to music listening such as preference, surprise or emo- tions are linked to the anticipatory behaviour of listeners. In this thesis, we concentrate on a statistical account to music expectation, by modelling the processes of learning and predicting spectro-temporal regularities in a causal fashion. The principle of statistical mo...

  18. Diagnostic reasoning using qualitative causal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of expert systems to reasoning problems involving real-time data from plant measurements has been a topic of much research, but few practical systems have been deployed. One obstacle to wider use of expert systems in applications involving real-time data is the lack of adequate knowledge representation methodologies for dynamic processes. Knowledge bases composed mainly of rules have disadvantages when applied to dynamic processes and real-time data. This paper describes a methodology for the development of qualitative causal models that can be used as knowledge bases for reasoning about process dynamic behavior. These models provide a systematic method for knowledge base construction, considerably reducing the engineering effort required. They also offer much better opportunities for verification and validation of the knowledge base, thus increasing the possibility of the application of expert systems to reasoning about mission critical systems. Starting with the Signed Directed Graph (SDG) method that has been successfully applied to describe the behavior of diverse dynamic processes, the paper shows how certain non-physical behaviors that result from abstraction may be eliminated by applying causal constraint to the models. The resulting Extended Signed Directed Graph (ESDG) may then be compiled to produce a model for use in process fault diagnosis. This model based reasoning methodology is used in the MOBIAS system being developed by Duke Power Company under EPRI sponsorship. 15 refs., 4 figs

  19. Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

  20. Manifest Variable Granger Causality Models for Developmental Research: A Taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Granger models are popular when it comes to testing hypotheses that relate series of measures causally to each other. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of Granger causality models. The taxonomy results from crossing the four variables Order of Lag, Type of (Contemporaneous) Effect, Direction of Effect, and Segment of Dependent Series…

  1. Causal transmission in reduced-form models

    OpenAIRE

    Vassili Bazinas; Bent Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method to explore the causal transmission of a catalyst variable through two endogenous variables of interest. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of the two endogenous variables given the catalyst. The method combines elements from instru- mental variable analysis and Cholesky decomposition of structural vector autoregressions. We give conditions for uniqueness of the causal transmission.

  2. A Causal Approach to Interrelated Family Events: A Cross-National Comparison fo Cohabitation, Non-marital Conception, and Marriage

    OpenAIRE

    Blossfeld, Hans-Peter; Mills, Melinda

    2001-01-01

    FrenchOne of the most important advances brought about by life course and eventhistory studies is the use of parallel or independent processes as explaining history factors intransition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study ofinterrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed bytwo event history perspectives: the "system" and "causal" approaches. The authors assert that thecausal approach is mor...

  3. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

  4. The stochastic system approach to causality with a view toward lifecourse epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Commenges, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call the stochastic system approach is particularly well fitted to study lifecourse epidemiology. A hierarchy of factors is described that could be modeled using a suitable multivariate stochastic process. To illustrate this approach, a conceptual model for coronary heart disease mixing continuous and discrete state-space processes is proposed.

  5. Causal mediation analyses with rank preserving models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Have, Thomas R Ten; Joffe, Marshall M; Lynch, Kevin G; Brown, Gregory K; Maisto, Stephen A; Beck, Aaron T

    2007-09-01

    We present a linear rank preserving model (RPM) approach for analyzing mediation of a randomized baseline intervention's effect on a univariate follow-up outcome. Unlike standard mediation analyses, our approach does not assume that the mediating factor is also randomly assigned to individuals in addition to the randomized baseline intervention (i.e., sequential ignorability), but does make several structural interaction assumptions that currently are untestable. The G-estimation procedure for the proposed RPM represents an extension of the work on direct effects of randomized intervention effects for survival outcomes by Robins and Greenland (1994, Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 737-749) and on intervention non-adherence by Ten Have et al. (2004, Journal of the American Statistical Association 99, 8-16). Simulations show good estimation and confidence interval performance by the proposed RPM approach under unmeasured confounding relative to the standard mediation approach, but poor performance under departures from the structural interaction assumptions. The trade-off between these assumptions is evaluated in the context of two suicide/depression intervention studies. PMID:17825022

  6. Causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission for Malaysia using maximum entropy bootstrap approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, Sehrish; Zou, Xiang; Hassan, Che Hashim; Azam, Muhammad; Zaman, Khalid

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in the causal framework, as the direction of causality remains has a significant policy implication for developed and developing countries. The study employed maximum entropy bootstrap (Meboot) approach to examine the causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission using bivariate as well as multivariate framework for Malaysia, over a period of 1975-2013. This is a unified approach without requiring the use of conventional techniques based on asymptotical theory such as testing for possible unit root and cointegration. In addition, it can be applied in the presence of non-stationary of any type including structural breaks without any type of data transformation to achieve stationary. Thus, it provides more reliable and robust inferences which are insensitive to time span as well as lag length used. The empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to carbon emission both in the bivariate model and multivariate framework, while controlling for broad money supply and population density. The results indicate that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country and hence energy is stimulus to carbon emissions. PMID:26282441

  7. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: a causal approach

    OpenAIRE

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; John, Anslyn; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-01-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large scale structures. We analyse the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the non-causal Eckart theory, we obtain a third order evo...

  8. Causal Depth: Aspects of a Scientific Realist Approach to Causal Explanation contra Humean Empiricism

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Haider

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this note is to clarify how the idea of "causal depth" can play a role in finding the more "approximately true" explanation through causal comparisons. It is not an exhaustive treatment but rather focuses on a few aspects that may be the most critical in evaluating the explanatory strengths of a theory in the social sciences. It presents a general argument which is anti-Humean on the critical side and scientific realist on the positive side. It also elucidates how explanations ...

  9. THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND U.S. SHADOW ECONOMY. A TODA-YAMAMOTO APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Adriana Ana-Maria DAVIDESCU; Dobre, Ion

    2012-01-01

    The paper analyses the causal relationship between U.S. shadow economy (SE) and unemployment rate (UR) using Toda-Yamamoto approach for quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009. The size of the shadow economy as % of official GDP is estimated using a MIMIC model with four causal variables (taxes on corporate income, contributions for government social insurance, unemployment rate and self-employment) and two indicators (index of real GDP and civilian labour force partici...

  10. Causal Latent Markov Model for the Comparison of Multiple Treatments in Observational Longitudinal Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolucci, Francesco; Pennoni, Fulvia; Vittadini, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    We extend to the longitudinal setting a latent class approach that was recently introduced by Lanza, Coffman, and Xu to estimate the causal effect of a treatment. The proposed approach enables an evaluation of multiple treatment effects on subpopulations of individuals from a dynamic perspective, as it relies on a latent Markov (LM) model that is…

  11. Causation or only correlation? Application of causal inference graphs for evaluating causality in nano-QSAR models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizochenko, Natalia; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Leszczynski, Jerzy; Puzyn, Tomasz

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Methods of causal discovery have been applied for broader physical insight into mechanisms of action and interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models. Previously developed nano-QSAR models for toxicity of 17 nano-sized metal oxides towards E. coli bacteria have been validated by means of the causality criteria. Using the descriptors confirmed by the causal technique, we have developed new models consistent with the straightforward causal-reasoning account. It was proven that causal inference methods are able to provide a more robust mechanistic interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models.In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal

  12. Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lemeire

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

  13. Developing a Causal Model from Liver Function Test Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inada, Masanori; Terano, Takao

    As Active Mining is a new concept among data mining and/or knowledge discovery in databases communities, in order to validate the effectiveness, it is important to carry out empirical studies using practical data. Based on the concept of Active User Reaction, this paper develops a causal model from liver function test data in a medical domain. To develop the model, we have set a problem to predict the values of ICG (indocyanine green) test from given observation data and experts' background knowledge. We therefore employ a framework of meta-learning and structural equation modeling. In this paper meta-learning means learning about mined results from multiple data-mining techniques. Structural equation modeling enables us to describe flexible models from background knowledge. The construction of the causal model contains two phases: meta-learning and the model building. The meta-learning phase utilizes both the linear regression and the neural network as data mining techniques, then examines the predictability on the given data set. Mining models are n-folded learned from the training data set. Each of the prediction accuracy of the mining models is compared using with the testing data. On the model building phase, we use structural equation modeling to develop a causal model based on results of meta-learning and background knowledge. We again compare the accuracy of the causal model with each of the mining models. Consequently we have developed the causal model, which is comprehensible and have good predictive performance, via the meta-learning phase. Through the empirical study, we have got the conclusion that the framework of meta-learning is effective in data mining in a difficult medical domain.

  14. Enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keselman, Alla

    Inquiry learning as an educational method is gaining increasing support among elementary and middle school educators. In inquiry activities at the middle school level, students are typically asked to conduct investigations and infer causal relationships about multivariable causal systems. In these activities, students usually demonstrate significant strategic weaknesses and insufficient metastrategic understanding of task demands. Present work suggests that these weaknesses arise from students' deficient mental models of multivariable causality, in which effects of individual features are neither additive, nor constant. This study is an attempt to develop an intervention aimed at enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality. Three groups of students engaged in a scientific investigation activity over seven weekly sessions. By creating unique combinations of five features potentially involved in earthquake mechanism and observing associated risk meter readings, students had to find out which of the features were causal, and to learn to predict earthquake risk. Additionally, students in the instructional and practice groups engaged in self-directed practice in making scientific predictions. The instructional group also participated in weekly instructional sessions on making predictions based on multivariable causality. Students in the practice and instructional conditions showed small to moderate improvement in their attention to the evidence and in their metastrategic ability to recognize effective investigative strategies in the work of other students. They also demonstrated a trend towards making a greater number of valid inferences than the control group students. Additionally, students in the instructional condition showed significant improvement in their ability to draw inferences based on multiple records. They also developed more accurate knowledge about non-causal features of the system. These gains were maintained

  15. The TETRAD Project: Constraint Based Aids to Causal Model Specification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheines, Richard; Spirtes, Peter; Glymour, Clark; Meek, Christopher; Richardson, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    The TETRAD for constraint-based aids to causal model specification project and related work in computer science aims to apply standards of rigor and precision to the problem of using data and background knowledge to make inferences about a model's specifications. Several algorithms that are implemented in the TETRAD II program are presented. (SLD)

  16. Causal Model Progressions as a Foundation for Intelligent Learning Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Barbara Y.; Frederiksen, John R.

    This paper describes the theoretical underpinnings and architecture of a new type of learning environment that incorporates features of microworlds and of intelligent tutoring systems. The environment is based on a progression of increasingly sophisticated causal models that simulate domain phenomena, generate explanations, and serve as student…

  17. Chain graph models and their causal interpretations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt; Richardson, Thomas S.

    2002-01-01

    equilibrium distributions of dynamic models with feed-back. These dynamic interpretations lead to a simple theory of intervention, extending the theory developed for directed acyclic graphs. Finally, we contrast chain graph models under this interpretation with simultaneous equation models which have......Chain graphs are a natural generalization of directed acyclic graphs and undirected graphs. However, the apparent simplicity of chain graphs belies the subtlety of the conditional independence hypotheses that they represent. There are many simple and apparently plausible, but ultimately fallacious......, interpretations of chain graphs that are often invoked, implicitly or explicitly. These interpretations also lead to flawed methods for applying background knowledge to model selection. We present a valid interpretation by showing how the distribution corresponding to a chain graph may be generated from the...

  18. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  19. Causality in 1+1-dimensional Yukawa model-II

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Asrarul Haque; Satish D Joglekar

    2013-10-01

    The limits → large, $M →$ large with ($g^{3}/M$) = const. of the 1+1-dimensional Yukawa model are discussed. The conclusion of the results on bound states of the Yukawa model in this limit (obtained in arXiv:0908.4510v3 [hep-th]) is taken into account. It is found that model reduces to an effective non-local 3 theory in this limit. Causality violation also is observed in this limit.

  20. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-01-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large scale structures. We analyse the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the non-causal Eckart theory, we obtain a third order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behaviour in $\\Lambda$CDM when $z \\geq 1$. Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  1. Causal Models for Mediation Analysis: An Introduction to Structural Mean Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Cheng; Atkins, David C; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Rhew, Isaac C

    2015-01-01

    Mediation analyses are critical to understanding why behavioral interventions work. To yield a causal interpretation, common mediation approaches must make an assumption of "sequential ignorability." The current article describes an alternative approach to causal mediation called structural mean models (SMMs). A specific SMM called a rank-preserving model (RPM) is introduced in the context of an applied example. Particular attention is given to the assumptions of both approaches to mediation. Applying both mediation approaches to the college student drinking data yield notable differences in the magnitude of effects. Simulated examples reveal instances in which the traditional approach can yield strongly biased results, whereas the RPM approach remains unbiased in these cases. At the same time, the RPM approach has its own assumptions that must be met for correct inference, such as the existence of a covariate that strongly moderates the effect of the intervention on the mediator and no unmeasured confounders that also serve as a moderator of the effect of the intervention or the mediator on the outcome. The RPM approach to mediation offers an alternative way to perform mediation analysis when there may be unmeasured confounders. PMID:26717122

  2. Measured, modeled, and causal conceptions of fitness

    OpenAIRE

    Abrams, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes partial answers to the following questions: in what senses can fitness differences plausibly be considered causes of evolution?What relationships are there between fitness concepts used in empirical research, modeling, and abstract theoretical proposals? How does the relevance of different fitness concepts depend on research questions and methodological constraints? The paper develops a novel taxonomy of fitness concepts, beginning with type fitness (a property of a genoty...

  3. Measured, Modeled, and Causal Conceptions of Fitness

    OpenAIRE

    Marshall eAbrams

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes partial answers to the following questions: In what senses can fitness differences plausibly be considered causes of evolution? What relationships are there between fitness concepts used in empirical research, modeling, and abstract theoretical proposals? How does the relevance of different fitness concepts depend on research questions and methodological constraints? The paper develops a novel taxonomy of fitness concepts, beginning with type fitness (a property of a ge...

  4. Causal Set Dynamics: A Toy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Criscuolo, A.; Waelbroeck, H.

    1998-01-01

    We construct a quantum measure on the power set of non-cyclic oriented graphs of N points, drawing inspiration from 1-dimensional directed percolation. Quantum interference patterns lead to properties which do not appear to have any analogue in classical percolation. Most notably, instead of the single phase transition of classical percolation, the quantum model displays two distinct crossover points. Between these two points, spacetime questions such as "does the network percolate" have no d...

  5. Dynamical Causal Modeling from a Quantum Dynamical Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research suggests that any set of first order linear vector ODEs can be converted to a set of specific vector ODEs adhering to what we have called ''Quantum Harmonical Form (QHF)''. QHF has been developed using a virtual quantum multi harmonic oscillator system where mass and force constants are considered to be time variant and the Hamiltonian is defined as a conic structure over positions and momenta to conserve the Hermiticity. As described in previous works, the conversion to QHF requires the matrix coefficient of the first set of ODEs to be a normal matrix. In this paper, this limitation is circumvented using a space extension approach expanding the potential applicability of this method. Overall, conversion to QHF allows the investigation of a set of ODEs using mathematical tools available to the investigation of the physical concepts underlying quantum harmonic oscillators. The utility of QHF in the context of dynamical systems and dynamical causal modeling in behavioral and cognitive neuroscience is briefly discussed.

  6. Causality between regional stock markets: A frequency domain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.

  7. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: A causal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; John, Anslyn; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-08-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large-scale structures. We analyze the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the noncausal Eckart theory, we obtain a third-order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behavior in Λ CDM when z ≥1 . Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  8. Scientific realism in particle physics a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Egg, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Does particle physics really describe the basic constituents of the material world or is it just a useful tool for deriving empirical predictions? This book proposes a novel answer to that question, emphasizing the importance of causal reasoning for the justification of scientific claims. It thereby responds to general worries about scientific realism as well as to more specific challenges stemming from the interpretation of quantum physics.

  9. The connected brain: Causality, models and intrinsic dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    A razi; Friston, K.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, there have been several concerted international efforts - the BRAIN initiative, European Human Brain Project and the Human Connectome Project, to name a few - that hope to revolutionize our understanding of the connected brain. Over the past two decades, functional neuroimaging has emerged as the predominant technique in systems neuroscience. This is foreshadowed by an ever increasing number of publications on functional connectivity, causal modeling, connectomics, and multivariate ...

  10. There aren't plenty more fish in the sea: a causal network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Milena; Lagnado, David A

    2015-11-01

    The current research investigated how lay representations of the causes of an environmental problem may underlie individuals' reasoning about the issue. Naïve participants completed an experiment that involved two main tasks. The causal diagram task required participants to depict the causal relations between a set of factors related to overfishing and to estimate the strength of these relations. The counterfactual task required participants to judge the effect of counterfactual suppositions based on the diagrammed factors. We explored two major questions: (1) what is the relation between individual causal models and counterfactual judgments? Consistent with previous findings (e.g., Green et al., 1998, Br. J. Soc. Psychology, 37, 415), these judgments were best explained by a combination of the strength of both direct and indirect causal paths. (2) To what extent do people use two-way causal thinking when reasoning about an environmental problem? In contrast to previous research (e.g., White, 2008, Appl. Cogn. Psychology, 22, 559), analyses based on individual causal networks revealed the presence of numerous feedback loops. The studies support the value of analysing individual causal models in contrast to consensual representations. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in relation to causal reasoning as well as environmental psychology. PMID:25597224

  11. Causal Dynamical Triangulation of 3D Tensor Model

    CERN Document Server

    Kawabe, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    We extend the string field theory of the two dimensional (2D) generalized causal dynamical triangulation (GCDT) with the Ishibashi-Kawai (IK-) type interaction formulated by the matrix model, to the three dimensional (3D) model of the surface field theory. Based on the loop gas model, we construct a tensor model for the discretized surface field and then apply it the stochastic quantization method. In the double scaling limit, the model is characterized by two scaling dimensions $D$ and $D_N$, the power indices of the minimal length as the scaling parameter. The continuum GCDT model with the IK-type interaction is realized with the similar restriction in the $D_N$-$D$ space, to the 2D model. The distinct property in the 3D model is that the quantum effect contains the IK-type interaction only, while the ordinary splitting interaction is excluded.

  12. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P.

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

  13. A hierarchical causal modeling for large industrial plants supervision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A supervision system has to analyse the process current state and the way it will evolve after a modification of the inputs or disturbance. It is proposed to base this analysis on a hierarchy of models, witch differ by the number of involved variables and the abstraction level used to describe their temporal evolution. In a first step, special attention is paid to causal models building, from the most abstract one. Once the hierarchy of models has been build, the most detailed model parameters are estimated. Several models of different abstraction levels can be used for on line prediction. These methods have been applied to a nuclear reprocessing plant. The abstraction level could be chosen on line by the operator. Moreover when an abnormal process behaviour is detected a more detailed model is automatically triggered in order to focus the operator attention on the suspected subsystem. (authors). 11 refs., 11 figs

  14. Interference between Cues Requires a Causal Scenario: Favorable Evidence for Causal Reasoning Models in Learning Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque, David; Cobos, Pedro L.; Lopez, Francisco J.

    2008-01-01

    In an interference-between-cues design (IbC), the expression of a learned Cue A-Outcome 1 association has been shown to be impaired if another cue, B, is separately paired with the same outcome in a second learning phase. The present study examined whether IbC could be caused by associative mechanisms independent of causal reasoning processes.…

  15. Goal orientations in sport: a causal model Orientaciones de Meta en el deporte: un modelo causal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco P. Holgado

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The study is based on research work relating goal orientation in sport with contextual variables and personal variables. The sample was 511 professional athletes. A “causal” model is proposed in which task and goal ego orientations are the dependent variables. A hypothetical model is obtained using structural equations modelling, supporting that: a athletes who find satisfaction experimenting mastery, who perceive a motivational climate that rewards hard work and who believe that success depends on their effort, develop task goal orientation; and b athletes who get satisfaction demonstrating greater capacity than the rest, who live a motivational climate that leads them to be better than the others and that only rewards the best players, and whose main motive for practising sport is to achieve certain social status and popularity, will have an ego goal orientation. Este trabajo parte de las investigaciones que relacionan las orientaciones de meta en el deporte con variables contextuales, como el clima motivacional percibido, y con variables personales, tales como la satisfacción con los resultados deportivos, las creencias relacionadas con los factores implicados en la obtención del éxito y los motivos por lo que se practica deporte. La muestra está compuesta por 511 deportistas profesionales. Se llevan a cabo análisis de regresión múltiple y se propone un modelo causal en el que las variables a predecir son las orientaciones de meta, a la tarea y al ego. Con ecuaciones estructurales se contrasta un modelo hipotético, que presenta un ajuste adecuado, y que defiende que: a el deportista que encuentra la satisfacción experimentando maestría, que percibe un clima motivacional que premia el trabajo duro y que cree que el éxito depende de su esfuerzo, desarrolla una orientación de meta a la tarea: y b que el deportista que obtiene satisfacción demostrando mayor capacidad que los demás, que vive un clima motivacional que le conduce a

  16. Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

    2015-04-01

    Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

  17. The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Ghana: A Trivariate Causality Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard N. Iyke

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Ghana within a trivariate ARDL framework, for the period 1971–2012.The paper obviates the variable omission bias, and the use of cross-sectional techniques that characterise most existing studies. The results show that there is a distinct causal flow from economic growth to electricity consumption: both in the short run and in the long run. This finding supports the growth-led electricity consumption hypothesis, as documented in the literature. The paper urges policymakers in Ghana to resort to alternative sources of electric power generation, in order to reduce any future pressures on the current sources of electricity production. Appropriate monetary policies must also be put in place, in order to accommodate potential inflation hikes stemming from excessive demands for electricity in the near future.

  18. Gene–environment interaction testing in family-based association studies with phenotypically ascertained samples: a causal inference approach

    OpenAIRE

    Fardo, David W.; Liu, Jinze; DeMeo, Dawn L; Silverman, Edwin K.; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2011-01-01

    We propose a method for testing gene–environment (G × E) interactions on a complex trait in family-based studies in which a phenotypic ascertainment criterion has been imposed. This novel approach employs G-estimation, a semiparametric estimation technique from the causal inference literature, to avoid modeling of the association between the environmental exposure and the phenotype, to gain robustness against unmeasured confounding due to population substructure, and to acknowledge the ascert...

  19. A Causal Approach to Interrelated Family Events: A Cross-National Comparison fo Cohabitation, Non-marital Conception, and Marriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blossfeld, Hans-Peter

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available FrenchOne of the most important advances brought about by life course and eventhistory studies is the use of parallel or independent processes as explaining history factors intransition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study ofinterrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed bytwo event history perspectives: the "system" and "causal" approaches. The authors assert that thecausal approach is more appropriate from an analytical point of view as it provides a straightforwardsolution to simultaneity, cause-effect lags, and temporal shapes of effects. Based on comparativecross-national applications in West and East Germany, Canada, Latvia and the Netherlands, wedemonstrate the usefulness of the causal approach by analyzing two highly interdependent famlyprocesses: entry into marriage (for individuals who are in a consensual union as the dependentprocess and first pregnancy/childbirth as the explaining one. Both statistical and theorteticalexplanations are explored emphasizing the need for conceptual reasoning.FrenchL’utilisation des processus interdépendants ou parallèles en tant que facteursexplicatifs dans des modèles des transitions aux quotients instantanés est une descontributions les plus importantes de l’analyse des biographies. Le but de cetarticle est d’appliquer une approche causale à l’analyse des événements familiauxinterdépendants. L’étude présente une typologie de processus parallèles et deuxperspectives de l’analyse des biographies: les approches ‘systémique’ et‘causale’. Les auteurs soutiennent que l’approche causale est plus appropriée dupoint de vue d’analyse. Elle offre une solution valable aux problèmes desimultanéité, les problèmes de décalage dans les intervalles entre la cause etl’effet, et, enfin, les problèmes des courbes temporelles modelées par les effets.L’utilité de cette

  20. Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

  1. Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G; Bovenhuis, Henk; Rosa, Guilherme J M

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge regarding causal relationships among traits is important to understand complex biological systems. Structural equation models (SEM) can be used to quantify the causal relations between traits, which allow prediction of outcomes to interventions applied to such a network. Such models are...... fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select a...... than the multi-trait model. Conclusions: The IC algorithm output pointed towards causal relations between the studied traits. This changed the focus from marginal associations between traits to direct relationships, thus towards relationships that may result in changes when external interventions are...

  2. Causality and Composite Structure

    CERN Document Server

    Joglekar, Satish D

    2007-01-01

    We study the question of whether a composite structure of elementary particles, with a length scale $1/\\Lambda$, can leave observable effects of non-locality and causality violation at higher energies (but $\\lesssim \\Lambda$). We formulate a model-independent approach based on Bogoliubov-Shirkov formulation of causality. We analyze the relation between the fundamental theory (of finer constituents) and the derived theory (of composite particles). We assume that the fundamental theory is causal and formulate a condition which must be fulfilled for the derived theory to be causal. We analyze the condition and exhibit possibilities which fulfil and which violate the condition. We make comments on how causality violating amplitudes can arise.

  3. Combining optogenetic stimulation and fMRI to validate a multivariate dynamical systems model for estimating causal brain interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryali, Srikanth; Shih, Yen-Yu Ian; Chen, Tianwen; Kochalka, John; Albaugh, Daniel; Fang, Zhongnan; Supekar, Kaustubh; Lee, Jin Hyung; Menon, Vinod

    2016-05-15

    State-space multivariate dynamical systems (MDS) (Ryali et al. 2011) and other causal estimation models are being increasingly used to identify directed functional interactions between brain regions. However, the validity and accuracy of such methods are poorly understood. Performance evaluation based on computer simulations of small artificial causal networks can address this problem to some extent, but they often involve simplifying assumptions that reduce biological validity of the resulting data. Here, we use a novel approach taking advantage of recently developed optogenetic fMRI (ofMRI) techniques to selectively stimulate brain regions while simultaneously recording high-resolution whole-brain fMRI data. ofMRI allows for a more direct investigation of causal influences from the stimulated site to brain regions activated downstream and is therefore ideal for evaluating causal estimation methods in vivo. We used ofMRI to investigate whether MDS models for fMRI can accurately estimate causal functional interactions between brain regions. Two cohorts of ofMRI data were acquired, one at Stanford University and the University of California Los Angeles (Cohort 1) and the other at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill (Cohort 2). In each cohort, optical stimulation was delivered to the right primary motor cortex (M1). General linear model analysis revealed prominent downstream thalamic activation in Cohort 1, and caudate-putamen (CPu) activation in Cohort 2. MDS accurately estimated causal interactions from M1 to thalamus and from M1 to CPu in Cohort 1 and Cohort 2, respectively. As predicted, no causal influences were found in the reverse direction. Additional control analyses demonstrated the specificity of causal interactions between stimulated and target sites. Our findings suggest that MDS state-space models can accurately and reliably estimate causal interactions in ofMRI data and further validate their use for estimating causal interactions in f

  4. Does Teaching Students How to Explicitly Model the Causal Structure of Systems Improve Their Understanding of These Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Eva

    2014-01-01

    If students really understand the systems they study, they would be able to tell how changes in the system would affect a result. This demands that the students understand the mechanisms that drive its behaviour. The study investigates potential merits of learning how to explicitly model the causal structure of systems. The approach and…

  5. Evidence for a causal inverse model in an avian cortico-basal ganglia circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Giret, N.; Kornfeld, J.; Ganguli, S.; Hahnloser, R. H. R.

    2014-01-01

    Auditory neural responses mirror motor activity in a songbird cortical area. The average temporal offset of mirrored responses is roughly equal to short sensorimotor loop delays. This correspondence between mirroring offsets and loop delays constitutes evidence for a causal inverse model. Causal inverse models can map a desired sensation into the required action.

  6. Granger Causality in Multi-variate Time Series using a Time Ordered Restricted Vector Autoregressive Model

    CERN Document Server

    Siggiridou, Elsa

    2015-01-01

    Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). In the presence of many observed variables and relatively short time series, CGCI may fail because it is based on vector autoregressive models (VAR) involving a large number of coefficients to be estimated. In this work, the VAR is restricted by a scheme that modifies the recently developed method of backward-in-time selection (BTS) of the lagged variables and the CGCI is combined with BTS. Further, the proposed approach is compared favorably to other restricted VAR representations, such as the top-down strategy, the bottom-up strategy, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), in terms of sensitivity and specificity of CGCI. This is shown by using simulations of linear and nonlinear, low and high-dimensional systems and different t...

  7. External Debt, Internal Debt and Economic Growth Bound in Nigeria using a Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amassoma J. Ditimi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the causal nexus between external debt, domestic debt and economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2009 using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR and a Vector Error Correction (VEC models. The variables used in the study were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip Perron test. The result showed that the variables are stationary at first differencing. Co-integration test was also performed and the result revealed the absence of co-integration between domestic debt and economic growth while the result also revealed the presence of co-integration between external debt and economic growth. The co-integration results determined the appropriateness of methodological test for causality. The findings of the VAR model revealed that there is a bi-directional causality between domestic debt and economic growth while that of the VEC model revealed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt in Nigeria. The study recommends that government should rely more on domestic debt in stimulating growth than on external debt.

  8. Ways forward : Effectual and causal approaches to innovation in the Swedish magazine industry

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Anette

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation builds on a study of key decision makers in the Swedish magazine publishing industry with a particular focus on how they think and act in their work to innovate their industry. This industry, much like the rest of the media industry, is facing increased unpredictability regarding for example the impact of new technology on the business and future demand. Traditional planning (causal) approaches can be greatly questioned in times of uncertainty, when the task at hand include ...

  9. Cognitive Structure of Climate Information System Actors:Using Causal Mapping Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Maryam Sharifzadeh; Gholamhossein Zamani; Mohammadtaghi Iman; Ezatolah Karami

    2012-01-01

    Promoting sustainability, productivity, efficiency, and development of agricultural sector are the functions of utilization of appropriate information in terms of agricultural climate information system (ACIS). In this regard, the main question is that, to what extent does the ACIS lead to or provide the necessary context for agricultural development? This research aimed to employ causal mapping approach to investigate cognitive structure of human actors in a climate information system. This ...

  10. How can we cope with the complexity of the environment? A "Learning by modelling" approach using qualitative reasoning for developing causal models and simulations with focus on Sustainable River Catchment Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Michaela; Zitek, Andreas; Salles, Paulo; Bredeweg, Bert; Muhar, Susanne

    2010-05-01

    The education system needs strategies to attract future scientists and practitioners. There is an alarming decline in the number of students choosing science subjects. Reasons for this include the perceived complexity and the lack of effective cognitive tools that enable learners to acquire the expertise in a way that fits its qualitative nature. The DynaLearn project utilises a "Learning by modelling" approach to deliver an individualised and engaging cognitive tool for acquiring conceptual knowledge. The modelling approach is based on qualitative reasoning, a research area within artificial intelligence, and allows for capturing and simulating qualitative systems knowledge. Educational activities within the DynaLearn software address topics at different levels of complexity, depending on the educational goals and settings. DynaLearn uses virtual characters in the learning environment as agents for engaging and motivating the students during their modelling exercise. The DynaLearn software represents an interactive learning environment in which learners are in control of their learning activities. The software is able to coach them individually based on their current progress, their knowledge needs and learning goals. Within the project 70 expert models on different environmental issues covering seven core topics (Earth Systems and Resources, The Living World, Human population, Land and Water Use, Energy Resources and Consumption, Pollution, and Global Changes) will be delivered. In the context of the core topic "Land and Water Use" the Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management has developed a model on Sustainable River Catchment Management. River systems with their catchments have been tremendously altered due to human pressures with serious consequences for the ecological integrity of riverine landscapes. The operation of hydropower plants, the implementation of flood protection measures, the regulation of flow and sediment regime and intensive

  11. Causal Agency Theory: Reconceptualizing a Functional Model of Self-Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shogren, Karrie A.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Palmer, Susan B.; Forber-Pratt, Anjali J.; Little, Todd J.; Lopez, Shane

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces Causal Agency Theory, an extension of the functional model of self-determination. Causal Agency Theory addresses the need for interventions and assessments pertaining to selfdetermination for all students and incorporates the significant advances in understanding of disability and in the field of positive psychology since the…

  12. Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state and future extensions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Klaas E Stephan; Lee M Harrison; Stefan J Kiebel; Olivier David; Will D Penny; Karl J Friston

    2007-01-01

    Complex processes resulting from interaction of multiple elements can rarely be understood by analytical scientific approaches alone; additional, mathematical models of system dynamics are required. This insight, which disciplines like physics have embraced for a long time already, is gradually gaining importance in the study of cognitive processes by functional neuroimaging. In this field, causal mechanisms in neural systems are described in terms of effective connectivity. Recently, dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was introduced as a generic method to estimate effective connectivity from neuroimaging data in a Bayesian fashion. One of the key advantages of DCM over previous methods is that it distinguishes between neural state equations and modality-specific forward models that translate neural activity into a measured signal. Another strength is its natural relation to Bayesian model selection (BMS) procedures. In this article, we review the conceptual and mathematical basis of DCM and its implementation for functional magnetic resonance imaging data and event-related potentials. After introducing the application of BMS in the context of DCM, we conclude with an outlook to future extensions of DCM. These extensions are guided by the long-term goal of using dynamic system models for pharmacological and clinical applications, particularly with regard to synaptic plasticity.

  13. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  14. Cognitive Structure of Climate Information System Actors:Using Causal Mapping Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Promoting sustainability, productivity, efficiency, and development of agricultural sector are the functions of utilization of appropriate information in terms of agricultural climate information system (ACIS. In this regard, the main question is that, to what extent does the ACIS lead to or provide the necessary context for agricultural development? This research aimed to employ causal mapping approach to investigate cognitive structure of human actors in a climate information system. This explorative qualitative research used case study methodology. This paper is an examination and reflection upon analysis of qualitative data reports, with particular attention to the process of interactively elicited causal maps based on focus group interviews. An exploratory coding approach was used to identify concepts that emerged from the interview transcripts. The relevant knowledge is gathered through the tacit understandings of climate information producers (2 groups, extensionists (6 groups, and users (7 groups in Fars province to reach to the point of redundancy. Investigating causal maps revealed that, actors perceived climate information system challenges as economic, information processing, socio-political, organizational, and technical challenges. The study provided some suggestions to reach to a responsive short term and sustainable long term climate information system in Fars province.

  15. Investigating the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a mendelian randomization approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husemoen, L. L. N.; Skaaby, T.; Martinussen, Torben;

    2014-01-01

    doubling of 25(OH)D was 4.78, 95% CI: 1.96, 7.68, P<0.001). Using variations in the vitamin D-binding protein gene and the filaggrin gene as instrumental variables, the causal effect in % was estimated to 61.46, 95% CI: 17.51, 120.28, P=0.003 higher adiponectin per doubling of 25(OH)D. In the MONICA10......Background/Objectives: The aim was to examine the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a multiple instrument Mendelian randomization approach. Subjects/Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and serum total or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin were measured in two...

  16. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Shuixia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE, Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Results Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins. For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. Conclusions The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  17. Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

    2016-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses. PMID:26832914

  18. Granger Causality and the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    OpenAIRE

    Mihir Dash

    2014-01-01

    At the heart of the CAPM lies the concept of systematic risk. The systematic risk of a security is that component of the total risk of the security that is explained by market risk. This study investigates the econometrics of the CAPM. In particular, it analyses Granger causality from market returns to security returns, the absence of which would weaken the significance of beta, and undermine the foundations of the CAPM.

  19. Some speculations on a beginning of a causal unified model of relativity, gravitation and quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some speculations on a causal model that seems to provide a common conceptual foundation for Relativity Gravitation and Quantum Mechanics are presented. The present approach is a unifying of three theories. The first being the repulsive theory of gravitational forces first proposed by Lesage in the eighteenth century. The second of these theories is the Brownian Motion Theory of Quantum Mechanics or Stocastic Mechanics which treats the non-deterministic Nature of Quantum Mechanics as being due to a Brownian motion of all objects. This Brownian motion being caused by the statistical variation in the graviton flux. The above two theories are unified with the Causal Theory of Special Relativity. Within the present context, the time dilations (and other effects) of Relativity are explained by assuming that the rate of a clock is a function of the total number or intensity of gravitons and the average frequency or energy of the gravitons that the clock receives. The Special Theory would then be the special case of the General Theory where the intensity is constant but the average frequency varies. In all the previous it is necessary to assume a particular model of the creation of the universe, namely the Big Bang Theory. This assumption gives us the existence of a preferred reference frame, the frame in which the Big Bang explosion was at rest. The above concepts of graviton distribution and real time dilations become meaningful by assuming the Big Bang Theory along with this preferred frame. An experimental test is proposed

  20. Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between economic growth, nuclear energy consumption, labor and capital for India for the period 1969-2006. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration developed by we find that there was a short- and a long-run relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Using four long-run estimators we also found that nuclear energy consumption has a positive and a statistically significant impact on India's economic growth. Further, applying the approach to Granger causality and the variance decomposition approach developed by , we found a positive and a significant uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth without feedback. This implies that economic growth in India is dependent on nuclear energy consumption where a decrease in nuclear energy consumption may lead to a decrease in real income. For a fast growing energy-dependent economy this may have far-reaching implications for economic growth. India's economic growth can be frustrated if energy conservation measures are undertaken without due regard to the negative impact they have on economic growth.

  1. Structure-Based Statistical Mechanical Model Accounts for the Causality and Energetics of Allosteric Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnera, Enrico; Berezovsky, Igor N

    2016-03-01

    Allostery is one of the pervasive mechanisms through which proteins in living systems carry out enzymatic activity, cell signaling, and metabolism control. Effective modeling of the protein function regulation requires a synthesis of the thermodynamic and structural views of allostery. We present here a structure-based statistical mechanical model of allostery, allowing one to observe causality of communication between regulatory and functional sites, and to estimate per residue free energy changes. Based on the consideration of ligand free and ligand bound systems in the context of a harmonic model, corresponding sets of characteristic normal modes are obtained and used as inputs for an allosteric potential. This potential quantifies the mean work exerted on a residue due to the local motion of its neighbors. Subsequently, in a statistical mechanical framework the entropic contribution to allosteric free energy of a residue is directly calculated from the comparison of conformational ensembles in the ligand free and ligand bound systems. As a result, this method provides a systematic approach for analyzing the energetics of allosteric communication based on a single structure. The feasibility of the approach was tested on a variety of allosteric proteins, heterogeneous in terms of size, topology and degree of oligomerization. The allosteric free energy calculations show the diversity of ways and complexity of scenarios existing in the phenomenology of allosteric causality and communication. The presented model is a step forward in developing the computational techniques aimed at detecting allosteric sites and obtaining the discriminative power between agonistic and antagonistic effectors, which are among the major goals in allosteric drug design. PMID:26939022

  2. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED4. I: Free theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of the axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles (k+)−n arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have the correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use of rigorous mathematical machinery of the distributional theory combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how the analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties within the framework of Wightman’s formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar and fermionic fields, as well as for the dynamical components of the electromagnetic field. In conclusion, we introduce the Epstein–Glaser causal method in order to have a mathematical rigorous description of the free propagators of the theory, allowing us to discuss a general treatment for propagators of the type (k+)−n. Afterwards, we show that at given conditions our results reproduce known prescriptions in the literature. - Highlights: • We develop the analytic representation for propagators in Wightman’s framework. • We make use of the analytic representation to obtain equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front. • We derive the free Feynman propagators for the light-front quantum electrodynamics in the Epstein–Glaser approach. • We determine a general expression for the propagator associated to the light-cone poles (k+)−n in the causal approach

  3. Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A. Ashley

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an “in-sample” period – purportedly utilized only for model specification/estimation – and a “post-sample” period, purportedly utilized (only at the end of the analysis for model validation/testing purposes. This partitioning is usually infeasible, however, with samples of modest length – e.g., T ≤ 150 – as is common in both quarterly data sets and/or in monthly data sets where institutional arrangements vary over time, simply because there is in such cases insufficient data available to credibly accomplish both purposes separately. A cross-sample validation (CSV testing procedure is proposed below which both eliminates the aforementioned a priori partitioning and which also substantially ameliorates this power versus credibility predicament – preserving most of the power of in-sample testing (by utilizing all of the sample data in the test, while also retaining most of the credibility of post-sample testing (by always basing model forecasts on data not utilized in estimating that particular model’s coefficients. Simulations show that the price paid, in terms of power relative to the in-sample Granger-causality F test, is manageable. An illustrative application is given, to a re-analysis of the Engel andWest [1] study of the causal relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate; several of their conclusions are changed by our analysis.

  4. Simulation of system models containing zero-order causal paths - I. Classification of zero-order causal paths

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, van J.; Breedveld, P.C.

    1991-01-01

    The existence of zero-order causal paths in bond graphs of physical systems implies the set of state equations to be an implicit mixed set of Differential and Algebraic Equations (DAEs). In the block diagram expansion of such a bond graph, this type of causal path corresponds with a zero-order loop.

  5. Lifted Representation of Relational Causal Models Revisited: Implications for Reasoning and Structure Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sanghack; Honavar, Vasant

    2015-01-01

    Maier et al. (2010) introduced the relational causal model (RCM) for representing and inferring causal relationships in relational data. A lifted representation, called abstract ground graph (AGG), plays a central role in reasoning with and learning of RCM. The correctness of the algorithm proposed by Maier et al. (2013a) for learning RCM from data relies on the soundness and completeness of AGG for relational d-separation to reduce the learning of an RCM to learning of an AGG. We revisit the...

  6. Visual Causal Models Enhance Clinical Explanations of Treatments for Generalized Anxiety Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Nancy S.; Khalife, Danielle; Judge, Kelly A.; Paulus, Daniel J.; Jordan, Jake T.; Yopchick, Jennelle E.

    2013-01-01

    A daily challenge in clinical practice is to adequately explain disorders and treatments to patients of varying levels of literacy in a time-limited situation. Drawing jointly upon research on causal reasoning and multimodal theory, the authors asked whether adding visual causal models to clinical explanations promotes patient learning. Participants were 86 people currently or formerly diagnosed with a mood disorder and 104 lay people in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, who were randomly assigned ...

  7. Integrative analysis of functional genomic annotations and sequencing data to identify rare causal variants via hierarchical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela eCapanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach

  8. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  9. Dynamics of Causal Sets

    CERN Document Server

    Rideout, D

    2002-01-01

    The Causal Set approach to quantum gravity asserts that spacetime, at its smallest length scale, has a discrete structure. This discrete structure takes the form of a locally finite order relation, where the order, corresponding with the macroscopic notion of spacetime causality, is taken to be a fundamental aspect of nature. After an introduction to the Causal Set approach, this thesis considers a simple toy dynamics for causal sets. Numerical simulations of the model provide evidence for the existence of a continuum limit. While studying this toy dynamics, a picture arises of how the dynamics can be generalized in such a way that the theory could hope to produce more physically realistic causal sets. By thinking in terms of a stochastic growth process, and positing some fundamental principles, we are led almost uniquely to a family of dynamical laws (stochastic processes) parameterized by a countable sequence of coupling constants. This result is quite promising in that we now know how to speak of dynamics ...

  10. Dynamics Of Causal Sets

    CERN Document Server

    Rideout, D P

    2001-01-01

    The Causal Set approach to quantum gravity asserts that spacetime, at its smallest length scale, has a discrete structure. This discrete structure takes the form of a locally finite order relation, where the order, corresponding with the macroscopic notion of spacetime causality, is taken to be a fundamental aspect of nature. After an introduction to the Causal Set approach, this thesis considers a simple toy dynamics for causal sets. Numerical simulations of the model provide evidence for the existence of a continuum limit. While studying this toy dynamics, a picture arises of how the dynamics can be generalized in such a way that the theory could hope to produce more physically realistic causal sets. By thinking in terms of a stochastic growth process, and positing some fundamental principles, we are led almost uniquely to a family of dynamical laws (stochastic processes) parameterized by a countable sequence of coupling constants. This result is quite promising in that we now know how to speak of dynamics ...

  11. Calculating and Understanding: Formal Models and Causal Explanations in Science, Common Reasoning and Physics Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besson, Ugo

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the different types of reasoning and physical explanation used in science, common thought, and physics teaching. It then reflects on the learning difficulties connected with these various approaches, and suggests some possible didactic strategies. Although causal reasoning occurs very frequently in common thought…

  12. Sex and Self-Control Theory: The Measures and Causal Model May Be Different

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, George E.; Tewksbury, Richard

    2006-01-01

    This study examines the distribution differences across sexes in key measures of self-control theory and differences in a causal model. Using cross-sectional data from juveniles ("n" = 1,500), the study shows mean-level differences in many of the self-control, risky behavior, and delinquency measures. Structural equation modeling findings support…

  13. A Non-Classical Linear Xenomorph as a Model for Quantum Causal Space

    CERN Document Server

    Raptis, I

    1999-01-01

    A quantum picture of the causal structure of Minkowski space M is presented. The mathematical model employed to this end is a non-classical version of the classical topos {H} of real quaternion algebras used elsewhere to organize the perceptions of spacetime events of a Boolean observer into M. Certain key properties of this new quantum topos are highlighted by contrast against the corresponding ones of its classical counterpart {H} modelling M and are seen to accord with some key features of the algebraically quantized causal set structure.

  14. From Correlation to Causality: Statistical Approaches to Learning Regulatory Relationships in Large-Scale Biomolecular Investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Robert O; Sachs, Karen; Vitek, Olga

    2016-03-01

    Causal inference, the task of uncovering regulatory relationships between components of biomolecular pathways and networks, is a primary goal of many high-throughput investigations. Statistical associations between observed protein concentrations can suggest an enticing number of hypotheses regarding the underlying causal interactions, but when do such associations reflect the underlying causal biomolecular mechanisms? The goal of this perspective is to provide suggestions for causal inference in large-scale experiments, which utilize high-throughput technologies such as mass-spectrometry-based proteomics. We describe in nontechnical terms the pitfalls of inference in large data sets and suggest methods to overcome these pitfalls and reliably find regulatory associations. PMID:26731284

  15. The Causal approach for the electron-positron scattering in the Generalized Quantum Electrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study the generalized electrodynamics contribution for the electron-positron scattering process, $e^{-}e^{+}\\rightarrow e^{-}e^{+}$, the Bhabha scattering. Within the framework of the standard model, for energies larger when compared to the electron mass, we calculate the cross section expression for the scattering process. This quantity is usually calculated in the framework of the Maxwell electrodynamics and, by phenomenological reasons, corrected by a cut-off parameter. On the other hand, by considering the generalized electrodynamics instead of Maxwell's, we can show that the effects played by the Podolsky mass is actually a natural cut-off parameter for this scattering process. Furthermore, by means of experimental data of Bhabha scattering we will estimate its lower bound value. Nevertheless, in order to have a mathematically well defined description of our study we shall present our discussion in the framework of the Epstein-Glaser causal theory.

  16. Simulation of system models containing zero-order causal paths - I. Classification of zero-order causal paths

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk; Breedveld, P.C.

    1991-01-01

    The existence of zero-order causal paths in bond graphs of physical systems implies the set of state equations to be an implicit mixed set of Differential and Algebraic Equations (DAEs). In the block diagram expansion of such a bond graph, this type of causal path corresponds with a zero-order loop. In this paper the numerical solution of the DAEs by methods commonly used for solving stiff systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) is discussed. Apart from a description of the numerica...

  17. Combining GWAS and RNA-Seq Approaches for Detection of the Causal Mutation for Hereditary Junctional Epidermolysis Bullosa in Sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-Vega, Aroa; Gutiérrez-Gil, Beatriz; Benavides, Julio; Perez, Valentín; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Klopp, Christophe; Keennel, Stephen J.; Arranz, Juan José

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we demonstrate the use of a genome-wide association mapping together with RNA-seq in a reduced number of samples, as an efficient approach to detect the causal mutation for a Mendelian disease. Junctional epidermolysis bullosa is a recessive genodermatosis that manifests with neonatal mechanical fragility of the skin, blistering confined to the lamina lucida of the basement membrane and severe alteration of the hemidesmosomal junctions. In Spanish Churra sheep, junctional epidermolysis bullosa (JEB) has been detected in two commercial flocks. The JEB locus was mapped to Ovis aries chromosome 11 by GWAS and subsequently fine-mapped to an 868-kb homozygous segment using the identical-by-descent method. The ITGB4, which is located within this region, was identified as the best positional and functional candidate gene. The RNA-seq variant analysis enabled us to discover a 4-bp deletion within exon 33 of the ITGB4 gene (c.4412_4415del). The c.4412_4415del mutation causes a frameshift resulting in a premature stop codon at position 1472 of the integrin β4 protein. A functional analysis of this deletion revealed decreased levels of mRNA in JEB skin samples and the absence of integrin β4 labeling in immunohistochemical assays. Genotyping of c.4412_4415del showed perfect concordance with the recessive mode of the disease phenotype. Selection against this causal mutation will now be used to solve the problem of JEB in flocks of Churra sheep. Furthermore, the identification of the ITGB4 mutation means that affected sheep can be used as a large mammal animal model for the human form of epidermolysis bullosa with aplasia cutis. Our approach evidences that RNA-seq offers cost-effective alternative to identify variants in the species in which high resolution exome-sequencing is not straightforward. PMID:25955497

  18. The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the causal link between monthly oil futures price changes and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index changes. The causal linkage between oil and stock markets is modelled using a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters so as to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. A Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, in which causal link between the series is stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain, is used for inferring time-varying causality. Although we do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality, the results based on the MS-VAR model clearly show that oil futures price has strong regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index during various sub-periods in the sample, while there is a weak evidence for the regime prediction power of a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock indexes. The regime-prediction non-causality tests on the MS-VAR model show that both variables are useful for making inference about the regime process and that the evidence on regime-prediction causality is primarily found in the equation describing a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock market returns. The evidence from the conditional non-causality tests shows that past information on the other series fails to improve the one step ahead prediction for both oil futures and stock returns. - Highlights: • We analyse the causal links between oil futures price and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 index. • The causal links are modelled using a regime switching model. • We do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality between the series. • The results show that oil futures price has regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index

  19. Invariant Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and Application in Causal Discovery

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard; Janzing, Dominik

    2012-01-01

    In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related to causal discovery in the presence of nonlinear confounders, which is a challenging problem. However, generally in such models the observation noise is assumed to be independent across data dimensions, and consequently the noise dependencies are ignored. In...

  20. "Great Ideas" in Russian Psychology: Personality Impact on Psychophysiological Functions and Causal Approach to Self- determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Mironenko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Russian psychology has brought into the world science at least two great ideas: the conditioned reflex (Pavlov and the zone of proximal development (Vygotsky. These concepts were formulated before “iron curtain” fell. Since then Russian science dropped out from the view of western colleagues for decades. Now it is challenged to re-join international mainstream. Are we in a position to contribute?A key concept for Russian psychology is personality impact on psycho-physiological functions and causal approach to self-determination. The concept of selfdetermination appeared in Western theories in 1980-es and since then it has been developed in the context of teleological humanitarian approach. In Russian science the concept of self-determination dates back to 1934, when it was defined by Rubinstein as “sub’ekt”. Self-determination of ontogenesis of psycho physiological functions resulting from confluence of ontogenesis and social development was explicated by Russian scientists whose theoretical reasoning and empirical results are compared to Western counterparts.

  1. Dropouts and Turnover: The Synthesis and Test of a Causal Model of Student Attrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, John P.

    1980-01-01

    The determinants of student attrition in higher education institutions are investigated using a causal model which synthesized research findings on job turnover and on student attrition. Many male/female differences were found but three surrogate measures for pay were found for both sexes to be related to intent to leave. (Author/LC)

  2. Causal Comparative Analysis: Comprehensive Literacy Approach or the Traditional Reading Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuda, Jessica Ann

    2009-01-01

    A comparative analysis study, examining the significance in reading achievement between students in the Comprehensive Literacy Program to students in the Traditional Basal Reading Approach was conducted. Implementation of the Comprehensive Literacy Program was an effort to lessen the achievement gap between proficient and low progressing students.…

  3. Exact solutions of a Flat Full Causal Bulk viscous FRW cosmological model through factorization

    OpenAIRE

    Cornejo-Pérez, O.; Belinchón, J. A.

    2012-01-01

    We study the classical flat full causal bulk viscous FRW cosmological model through the factorization method. The method shows that there exists a relationship between the viscosity parameter $s$ and the parameter $\\gamma$ entering the equations of state of the model. Also, the factorization method allows to find some new exact parametric solutions for different values of the viscous parameter $s$. Special attention is given to the well known case $s=1/2$, for which the cosmological model adm...

  4. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED4. II: Vacuum polarization tensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED4 in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in the literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the Epstein–Glaser causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous term, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from this calculation it follows the same result as those obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind our obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantaneous fermionic propagator term. - Highlights: • We develop the Epstein–Glaser causal approach for light-front field theory. • We evaluate in detail the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED. • We discuss the subtle issues of the Instantaneous part of the fermionic propagator in the light-front. • We evaluate the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED with the Instantaneous fermionic part

  5. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED{sub 4}. II: Vacuum polarization tensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bufalo, R., E-mail: rodrigo.bufalo@helsinki.fi [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Pimentel, B.M., E-mail: pimentel@ift.unesp.br [Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Soto, D.E., E-mail: danielsb@ift.unesp.br [Instituto de Física Teórica (IFT/UNESP), UNESP - São Paulo State University, Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II Barra Funda, CEP 01140-070 São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2014-12-15

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED{sub 4} in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in the literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the Epstein–Glaser causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous term, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from this calculation it follows the same result as those obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind our obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantaneous fermionic propagator term. - Highlights: • We develop the Epstein–Glaser causal approach for light-front field theory. • We evaluate in detail the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED. • We discuss the subtle issues of the Instantaneous part of the fermionic propagator in the light-front. • We evaluate the vacuum polarization at one-loop for the light-front QED with the Instantaneous fermionic part.

  6. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  7. Relationship of causal effects in a causal chain and related inference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GENG; Zhi; HE; Yangbo; WANG; Xueli

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationship among the total causal effect and local causal effects in a causal chain and identifiability of causal effects. We show a transmission relationship of causal effects in a causal chain. According to the relationship, we give an approach to eliminating confounding bias through controlling for intermediate variables in a causal chain.

  8. Explaining Premarital Sexual Intercourse among College Students: A Causal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Barbara; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Using a model based on opportunity, this article analyzes premarital sexual activity among college students. It notes that the incidence of premarital sex in the late 1960's was a product of peer influences and structural opportunities (provided through off campus residence, dating frequency, and fraternity/ sorority membership) and not only of…

  9. [Representation of relations between television watching and delinquency within the scope of causal analysis models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheungrab, M

    1990-01-01

    The subject of research coucerns causal relationships between variables of consuming home videos and television and different indicators of delinquency ("acceptance of social norms" (NORM-AK), "perceived risk of punishment" (DEL-RISK), "severity of negative consequences" (NEG-VAL), "acceptance of illegitimate means" (ILLEG-M)). Additionally, factors of influence external to media are taken into consideration which are connected with delinquency according to criminologic results, i.e. variables of communication and variables of the family life and the structure of the family. The model is tested by a sample of N = 305 male pupils of a Regensburg vocational school with methods analysing causality ("2-Stage-Least-Square" (2-SLS) and "Latent variables path analysis with partial least squares estimation" (LVPLS)). The 2-SLS-estimates largely confirm the causal relationships supposed in the model. The results are, three significantly positive indirect connections from the preference for violence of home videos to the main indicator of delinquency ILLEG-M (by way of the variables "consumption of home videos" put on the Index, NEG-VAL and DEL-RISK). The direct influence of the preference for violence on television on ILLEG-M is confirmed, whereas the direct path from the popularity of violent video films to ILLEG-M cannot be proved. The LVPLS-results essentially correspond to the relationship shown by 2-SLS; in addition the LVPLS-estimates also confirm direct causal relationships between the latent variables "consumption of violent video films" and "delinquency proneness". PMID:2132917

  10. Suboptimal Causal Reactive Control of Wave Energy Converters Using a Second Order System Model

    OpenAIRE

    Fusco, Francesco; Ringwood, John

    2011-01-01

    Wave Energy Converters (WECs) based on oscillating bodies can achieve optimal energy absorption under certain conditions associated with reactive control. These conditions, in general, are not realisable in practice because non-causal and future values of the excitation force need to be known. In this paper, an alternative approach is presented, where the relationship between the optimal velocity and the excitation force is realised through a simple coefficient of proportion...

  11. Causality issues of particle detector models in QFT and Quantum Optics

    CERN Document Server

    Martin-Martinez, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the constraints that causality imposes on some of the particle detector models employed in quantum field theory in general, and in particular on those used in quantum optics (or superconducting circuits) to model atoms interacting with light. Namely, we show that disallowing faster-than-light communication can impose severe constraints on the applicability of particle detector models in three different common scenarios: 1) when the detectors are spatially smeared, 2) when a UV cutoff is introduced in the theory and 3) under one of the most typical approximations made in quantum optics: the rotating-wave approximation. We identify in which scenarios the models' causal behaviour can be cured and in which it cannot.

  12. Regression to Causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

    2014-01-01

    Humans are fundamentally primed for making causal attributions based on correlations. This implies that researchers must be careful to present their results in a manner that inhibits unwarranted causal attribution. In this paper, we present the results of an experiment that suggests regression...... models should note carefully both their models’ identifying assumptions and which causal attributions can safely be concluded from their analysis....

  13. Gun Prevalence, Homicide Rates and Causality: A GMM Approach to Endogeneity Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Kleck, Gary; Kovandzic, Tomislav; Schaffer, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    The positive correlation between gun prevalence and homicide rates has been widely documented. But does this correlation reflect a causal relationship? This study seeks to answer the question of whether more guns cause more crime, and unlike nearly all previous such studies, we properly account for the endogeneity of gun ownership levels. We discuss the three main sources of endogeneity bias - reverse causality (higher crime rates lead people to acquire guns for self-protection), mismeasureme...

  14. A Non-Classical Linear Xenomorph as a Model for Quantum Causal Space

    OpenAIRE

    Raptis, Ioannis

    1999-01-01

    A quantum picture of the causal structure of Minkowski space M is presented. The mathematical model employed to this end is a non-classical version of the classical topos {H} of real quaternion algebras used elsewhere to organize the perceptions of spacetime events of a Boolean observer into M. Certain key properties of this new quantum topos are highlighted by contrast against the corresponding ones of its classical counterpart {H} modelling M and are seen to accord with some key features of...

  15. Overpressures: Causal Mechanisms, Conventional and Hydromechanical Approaches Surpressions : origine, approches conventionnelle et hydromécanique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grauls D.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abnormal fluid pressure regimes are commonly encountered at depth in most sedimentary basins. Relationships between effective vertical stress and porosity have been applied, since 1970 to the Gulf Coast area, to assess the magnitude of overpressures. Positive results have been obtained from seismic and basin-modeling techniques in sand-shale, vertical-stress-dominated tertiary basins, whenever compaction disequilibrium conditions apply. However, overpressures resulting from other and/or additional causes (tectonic stress, hydrocarbon generation, thermal stress, fault-related transfer, hydrofracturing. . . cannot be quantitatively assessed using this approach. A hydromechanical approach is then proposed in addition to conventional methods. At any depth, the upper bound fluid pressure is controlled by in situ conditions related to hydrofracturing or fault reactivation. Fluid-driven fracturing implies an episodically open system, under a close to zerominimum effective stress regime. Sound knowledge of present-day tectonic stress regimes allows a direct estimation of minimum stress evolution. A quantitative fluid pressure assessment at depth is therefore possible, as in undrained or/and compartmented geological systems, pressure regimes, whatever their origin, tend to rapidly reach a value close to the minimum principal stress. Therefore, overpressure assessment will be improved, as this methodology can be applied to various geological settings and situations where present-day overpressures originated from other causal mechanisms, very often combined. However, pressure trends in transition zones are more difficult to assess correctly. Additional research on cap rocks and fault seals is therefore required to improve their predictability. In addition to overpressure assessment, the minimum principal stress concept allows a better understanding of petroleum system, as fault-related hydrocarbon dynamic transfers, hydrofractured domains and cap

  16. Performing Causal Configurations in e-Tourism: a Fuzzy-Set Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugues Seraphin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Search engines are constantly endeavouring to integrate social media mentions in the website ranking process. Search Engine Optimization (SEO principles can be used to impact website ranking, considering various social media channels� capability to drive traffic. Both practitioners and researchers has focused on the impact of social media on SEO, but paid little attention to the influences of social media interactions on organic search results. This study explores the causal configurations between social mention variables (strength, sentiment, passion, reach and the rankings of nine websites dedicated to hotel booking (according to organic search results. The social mention variables embedded into the conceptual model were provided by the real-time social media search and analysis tool (www.socialmention.com, while the rankings websites dedicated to hotel booking were determined after a targeted search on Google. The study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA and the results reveal that social mention variables has complex links with the rankings of the hotel booking websites included into the sample, according to Quine-McCluskey algorithm solution. The findings extend the body of knowledge related to the impact of social media mentions on

  17. CAUSALITY BETWEEN GDP, ENERGY AND COAL CONSUMPTION IN INDIA, 1970-2011: A NON-PARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohin Anhal

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between real GDP on the one hand and final energy and coal consumption on the other in India, for the period from 1970 to 2011. The methodology adopted is the non-parametric bootstrap procedure, which is used to construct the critical values for the hypothesis of causality. The results of the bootstrap tests show that for total energy consumption, there exists no causal relationship in either direction with GDP of India. However, if coal consumption is considered, we find evidence in support of unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to GDP. This clearly has important implications for the Indian economy. The most important implication is that curbing coal consumption in order to reduce carbon emissions would in turn have a limiting effect on economic growth. Our analysis contributes to the literature in three distinct ways. First, this is the first paper to use the bootstrap method to examine the growth-energy connection for the Indian economy. Second, we analyze data for the time period 1970 to 2011, thereby utilizing recently available data that has not been used by others. Finally, in contrast to the recently done studies, we adopt a disaggregated approach for the analysis of the growth-energy nexus by considering not only aggregate energy consumption, but coal consumption as well.

  18. Calibrating the pixel-level Kepler imaging data with a causal data-driven model

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Dun; Hogg, David W; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Astronomical observations are affected by several kinds of noise, each with its own causal source; there is photon noise, stochastic source variability, and residuals coming from imperfect calibration of the detector or telescope. The precision of NASA Kepler photometry for exoplanet science---the most precise photometric measurements of stars ever made---appears to be limited by unknown or untracked variations in spacecraft pointing and temperature, and unmodeled stellar variability. Here we present the Causal Pixel Model (CPM) for Kepler data, a data-driven model intended to capture variability but preserve transit signals. The CPM works at the pixel level so that it can capture very fine-grained information about the variation of the spacecraft. The CPM predicts each target pixel value from a large number of pixels of other stars sharing the instrument variabilities while not containing any information on possible transits in the target star. In addition, we use the target star's future and past (auto-regr...

  19. Establishing Causality Using Longitudinal Hierarchical Linear Modeling: An Illustration Predicting Achievement From Self-Control

    OpenAIRE

    Duckworth, Angela Lee; Tsukayama, Eli; May, Henry

    2010-01-01

    The predictive validity of personality for important life outcomes is well established, but conventional longitudinal analyses cannot rule out the possibility that unmeasured third-variable confounds fully account for the observed relationships. Longitudinal hierarchical linear models (HLM) with time-varying covariates allow each subject to serve as his or her own control, thus eliminating between-individual confounds. HLM also allows the directionality of the causal relationship to be tested...

  20. Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Arshia Amiri; Ulf-G Gerdtham

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961_2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and Inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locatins and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledg...

  1. A new approach in classical electrodynamics to protect principle of causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biswaranjan Dikshit

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In classical electrodynamics, electromagnetic effects are calculated from solution of wave equation formed by combination of four Maxwell’s equations. However, along with retarded solution, this wave equation admits advanced solution in which case the effect happens before the cause. So, to preserve causality in natural events, the retarded solution is intentionally chosen and the advance part is just ignored. But, an equation or method cannot be called fundamental if it admits a wrong result (that violates principle of causality in addition to the correct result. Since it is the Maxwell’s form of equations that gives birth to this acausal advanced potential, we rewrite these equations in a different form using the recent theory of reaction at a distance (Biswaranjan Dikshit, Physics essays, 24(1, 4-9, 2011 so that the process of calculation does not generate any advanced effects. Thus, the long-standing causality problem in electrodynamics is solved.

  2. Time and Causality in the Economic Process – a Critical Approach Based on Consistency Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina TĂNĂSESCU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our paper proposes a critical analysis based on criteria of consistency of the fundamental concepts underlying the comprehensive description of economic process, namely: time, context and causality. Issues of such action taken by us arise from the existence of the fact that the emergence of new paradigms, amid an economic complexity, should include elements of theoretical, instrumental and methodological nature. Moreover, dominant economic science, at this time (positivist, is subject to an epistemological imperialism exercised by Newtonian mechanics, without one's own epistemology. Regarding the underlying causality explaining the economic process, we find that, yet at this time, it is a singular and efficient one (in the Aristotelian sense, but not a teleological one, so we wonder whether the final causality (purpose form may better explain the economic process and his completeness, and in this sense, the shaping of new paradigms based on premises other than those already existed, in understanding the economic process.

  3. Towards personalized causal inference of medication response in mobile health: an instrumental variable approach for randomized trials with imperfect compliance

    OpenAIRE

    Neto, Elias Chaibub; Bot, Brian M.; Kellen, Mike; Friend, Stephen H; Trister, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Mobile health studies can leverage longitudinal sensor data from smartphones to guide the application of personalized medical interventions. These studies are particularly appealing due to their ability to attract a large number of participants. In this paper, we argue that the adoption of an instrumental variable approach for randomized trials with imperfect compliance provides a natural framework for personalized causal inference of medication response in mobile health studies. Randomized t...

  4. Neyman’s causal model with stochastic potential outcomes: implications for the completely randomized design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Scosyrev

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In Neyman’s causal model (NCM, each subject participating in a two-arm randomized trial has a pair of potential outcomes – one outcome would be observed under treatment and another under control. In the stochastic version of NCM the two potential outcomes are viewed as possibly non-degenerate random variables with finite expectations and variances. The subject-level treatment effect is the expected outcome under treatment minus that under control, and the average treatment effect is the arithmetic mean of the subject-level effects. In the present paper properties of the ordinary “difference of means” estimator and its associated variance estimator are examined in the completely randomized design with stochastic potential outcomes. Estimation theory is developed under randomization distribution without commitment to any particular probability model for enrollment, because in real trials subjects are not enrolled by a sampling mechanism with known selection probabilities. It is shown that in this theoretical framework, the “difference of means” estimator is asymptotically normal and consistent for the average treatment effect in the study cohort, while its associated variance estimator is conservative, producing confidence intervals with at least nominal asymptotic coverage. The proofs are not trivial because in the randomization framework sample means under treatment and control are correlated random variables. Keywords: Causality; Clinical Trials; Internal Validity; Neyman’s Causal Model; Randomization-Based Inference; Stochastic Potential Outcomes.

  5. Causal Depth contra Humean Empiricism: Aspects of a Scientific Realist Approach to Explanation

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Haider

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this note is to clarify how the idea of "causal depth" can play a role in finding the more "approximately true" explanation through causal comparisons. It is not an exhaustive treatment but rather focuses on a few aspects that may be the most critical in evaluating the explanatory strengths of a theory in the social sciences. It presents a general argument which is anti-Humean on the critical side and scientific realist on the positive side. It also elucidates how explanations...

  6. The Nexus between Finance, Growth and Poverty in India: The Cointegration and Causality Approach1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudra Prakash Prakash Pradhan

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} The paper examines the causal nexus between financial development, economic growth and poverty reduction in India during 1951-2008. The empirical analysis is based on cointegration and causality test. The cointegration test finds the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between financial development, economic growth and poverty reduction. The Granger causality test at the end confirms the presence of unidirectional causality from poverty reduction to economic growth, economic growth to finance development, financial development to poverty reduction and economic growth to poverty reduction. It also finds no causality between finance development and economic growth, and poverty reduction and finance development. The paper suggests that economic growth is considered as the policy variable to accelerate finance development and both could be used as the policy variable to reduce poverty in the economy.

  7. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. II: Vacuum Polarization tensor

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED$_{4}$ in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this paradox. First, in the perturbative causal theory, it is shown that the fermionic propagator does not have instantaneous terms, and with this propagator we calculate the one-loop vacuum polarization, from the calculation it follows the same result as obtained by the standard approach, but without reclaiming any extra assumptions. Moreover, since the perturbative causal theory is defined in the distributional framework, we can also show the reason behind we obtaining the same result whether we consider or not the instantane...

  8. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  9. Two Optimal Strategies for Active Learning of Causal Models from Interventions

    CERN Document Server

    Hauser, Alain

    2012-01-01

    From observational data alone, a causal DAG is in general only identifiable up to Markov equivalence. Interventional data generally improves identifiability; however, the gain of an intervention strongly depends on the intervention target, i.e., the intervened variables. We present active learning strategies calculating optimal interventions for two different learning goals. The first one is a greedy approach using single-vertex interventions that maximizes the number of edges that can be oriented after each intervention. The second one yields in polynomial time a minimum set of targets of arbitrary size that guarantees full identifiability. This second approach proves a conjecture of Eberhardt (2008) indicating the number of unbounded intervention targets which is sufficient and in the worst case necessary for full identifiability. We compare our two active learning approaches to random interventions in a simulation study.

  10. Investigating Causality in Human Behavior from Smartphone Sensor Data: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Tsapeli, Fani; Musolesi, Mirco

    2015-01-01

    Smartphones have become an indispensable part of our daily life. Their improved sensing and computing capabilities bring new opportunities for human behavior monitoring and analysis. Most work so far has been focused on detecting correlation rather than causation among features extracted from smartphone data. However, pure correlation analysis does not offer sufficient understanding of human behavior. Moreover, causation analysis could allow scientists to identify factors that have a causal e...

  11. Performing Causal Configurations in e-Tourism: a Fuzzy-Set Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hugues Seraphin; Adrian Micu; Michele Ambaye; Alexandru Capatina

    2016-01-01

    Search engines are constantly endeavouring to integrate social media mentions in the website ranking process. Search Engine Optimization (SEO) principles can be used to impact website ranking, considering various social media channels� capability to drive traffic. Both practitioners and researchers has focused on the impact of social media on SEO, but paid little attention to the influences of social media interactions on organic search results. This study explores the causal configurations b...

  12. Deconstructing Constructivism: Modeling Causal Relationships Among Constructivist Learning Environment Factors and Student Outcomes in Introductory Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komperda, Regis

    The purpose of this dissertation is to test a model of relationships among factors characterizing aspects of a student-centered constructivist learning environment and student outcomes of satisfaction and academic achievement in introductory undergraduate chemistry courses. Constructivism was chosen as the theoretical foundation for this research because of its widespread use in chemical education research and practice. In a constructivist learning environment the role of the teacher shifts from delivering content towards facilitating active student engagement in activities that encourage individual knowledge construction through discussion and application of content. Constructivist approaches to teaching introductory chemistry courses have been adopted by some instructors as a way to improve student outcomes, but little research has been done on the causal relationships among particular aspects of the learning environment and student outcomes. This makes it difficult for classroom teachers to know which aspects of a constructivist teaching approach are critical to adopt and which may be modified to better suit a particular learning environment while still improving student outcomes. To investigate a model of these relationships, a survey designed to measure student perceptions of three factors characterizing a constructivist learning environment in online courses was adapted for use in face-to-face chemistry courses. These three factors, teaching presence, social presence, and cognitive presence, were measured using a slightly modified version of the Community of Inquiry (CoI) instrument. The student outcomes investigated in this research were satisfaction and academic achievement, as measured by standardized American Chemical Society (ACS) exam scores and course grades. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to statistically model relationships among the three presence factors and student outcome variables for 391 students enrolled in six sections of a

  13. An integrative systems genetics approach reveals potential causal genes and pathways related to obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kogelman, Lisette; Zhernakova, Daria V.; Westra, Harm-Jan; Cirera Salicio, Susanna; Fredholm, Merete; Franke, Lude; Kadarmideen, Haja

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Obesity is a multi-factorial health problem in which genetic factors play an important role. Limited results have been obtained in single-gene studies using either genomic or transcriptomic data. RNA sequencing technology has shown its potential in gaining accurate knowledge about the...... porcine model to investigate the mechanisms involved in obesity using a systems genetics approach. METHODS: Using a selective gene expression profiling approach, we selected 36 animals based on a previously created genomic Obesity Index for RNA sequencing of subcutaneous adipose tissue. Differential...... expression analysis was performed using the Obesity Index as a continuous variable in a linear model. eQTL mapping was then performed to integrate 60 K porcine SNP chip data with the RNA sequencing data. Results were restricted based on genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms, detected...

  14. Influence of Resting Venous Blood Volume Fraction on Dynamic Causal Modeling and System Identifiability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhenghui; Ni, Pengyu; Wan, Qun; Zhang, Yan; Shi, Pengcheng; Lin, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Changes in BOLD signals are sensitive to the regional blood content associated with the vasculature, which is known as V0 in hemodynamic models. In previous studies involving dynamic causal modeling (DCM) which embodies the hemodynamic model to invert the functional magnetic resonance imaging signals into neuronal activity, V0 was arbitrarily set to a physiolog-ically plausible value to overcome the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. It is interesting to investigate how the V0 value influences DCM. In this study we addressed this issue by using both synthetic and real experiments. The results show that the ability of DCM analysis to reveal information about brain causality depends critically on the assumed V0 value used in the analysis procedure. The choice of V0 value not only directly affects the strength of system connections, but more importantly also affects the inferences about the network architecture. Our analyses speak to a possible refinement of how the hemody-namic process is parameterized (i.e., by making V0 a free parameter); however, the conditional dependencies induced by a more complex model may create more problems than they solve. Obtaining more realistic V0 information in DCM can improve the identifiability of the system and would provide more reliable inferences about the properties of brain connectivity. PMID:27389074

  15. On Causality in Dynamical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Harnack, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Identification of causal links is fundamental for the analysis of complex systems. In dynamical systems, however, nonlinear interactions may hamper separability of subsystems which poses a challenge for attempts to determine the directions and strengths of their mutual influences. We found that asymmetric causal influences between parts of a dynamical system lead to characteristic distortions in the mappings between the attractor manifolds reconstructed from respective local observables. These distortions can be measured in a model-free, data-driven manner. This approach extends basic intuitions about cause-effect relations to deterministic dynamical systems and suggests a mathematically well defined explanation of results obtained from previous methods based on state space reconstruction.

  16. Connectivity-based neurofeedback: Dynamic causal modeling for real-time fMRI

    OpenAIRE

    Koush, Yury; Rosa, Maria Joao; Robineau, Fabien; Heinen, Klaartje; Rieger, Sebastian Walter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Van De Ville, Dimitri; Scharnowski, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Neurofeedback based on real-time fMRI is an emerging technique that can be used to train voluntary control of brain activity. Such brain training has been shown to lead to behavioral effects that are specific to the functional role of the targeted brain area. However, real-time fMRI-based neurofeedback so far was limited to mainly training localized brain activity within a region of interest. Here, we overcome this limitation by presenting near real-time dynamic causal modeling in order to pr...

  17. Can the use of an interactive computational model assist in teaching forms of causality in system dynamics?

    OpenAIRE

    Lymbouridou, Chrystalla; Sevastidou, Alexia

    2003-01-01

    This study investigated the effectiveness of a computational model (made with Stagecast Creator1) in teaching forms of causality in system dynamics. Systems causality forms were examined within the context of food web perturbations. The research sample included two equivalent sixth grade classes from the same elementary school in Cyprus. The same teacher taught students in both classes a unit on ecosystems that was completed in two lessons (4 class periods). Students in the experimental group...

  18. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. II: Vacuum Polarization tensor

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2014-01-01

    In this work we show how to construct the one-loop vacuum polarization for light-front QED$_{4}$ in the framework of the perturbative causal theory. Usually, in the canonical approach, it is considered for the fermionic propagator the so-called instantaneous term, but it is known in literature that this term is controversial because it can be omitted by computational reasons; for instance, by compensation or vanishing by dimensional regularization. In this work we propose a solution to this p...

  19. Integrating Probabilistic, Taxonomic and Causal Knowledge in Abductive Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Dekang; Goebel, Randy

    2013-01-01

    We propose an abductive diagnosis theory that integrates probabilistic, causal and taxonomic knowledge. Probabilistic knowledge allows us to select the most likely explanation; causal knowledge allows us to make reasonable independence assumptions; taxonomic knowledge allows causation to be modeled at different levels of detail, and allows observations be described in different levels of precision. Unlike most other approaches where a causal explanation is a hypothesis that one or more causat...

  20. Promoting the organ donor card: a causal model of persuasion effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skumanich, S A; Kintsfather, D P

    1996-08-01

    Due to the present critical shortage of donor organs available for transplantation, effective communication strategies are necessary to heighten public commitment to donation. The promotion of organ donor card-signing may be a successful vehicle in the achievement of this goal. Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion effects, evidence of the motivation for organ donor card-signing, and examination of previous donation message tests, this study proposes and tests a causal model of response to organ donor card appeals. The inter-relationship of values, empathy arousal, and issue involvement was found to be a significant driving force in the persuasive process for the behavioral intention to sign an organ donor card. Implications of these findings for future research are addressed. PMID:8844941

  1. Causal modeling of secondary science students' intentions to enroll in physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

    The purpose of this study was to explore the utility of the theory of planned behavior model developed by social psychologists for understanding and predicting the behavioral intentions of secondary science students regarding enrolling in physics. In particular, the study used a three-stage causal model to investigate the links from external variables to behavioral, normative, and control beliefs; from beliefs to attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control; and from attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control to behavioral intentions. The causal modeling method was employed to verify the underlying causes of secondary science students' interest in enrolling physics as predicted in the theory of planned behavior. Data were collected from secondary science students (N = 264) residing in a central Texas city who were enrolled in earth science (8th grade), biology (9th grade), physical science (10th grade), or chemistry (11th grade) courses. Cause-and-effect relationships were analyzed using path analysis to test the direct effects of model variables specified in the theory of planned behavior. Results of this study indicated that students' intention to enroll in a high school physics course was determined by their attitude toward enrollment and their degree of perceived behavioral control. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control were, in turn, formed as a result of specific beliefs that students held about enrolling in physics. Grade level and career goals were found to be instrumental in shaping students' attitude. Immediate family members were identified as major referents in the social support system for enrolling in physics. Course and extracurricular conflicts and the fear of failure were shown to be the primary beliefs obstructing students' perception of control over physics enrollment. Specific recommendations are offered to researchers and practitioners for strengthening secondary school students

  2. Identifying abnormal connectivity in patients using Dynamic Causal Modelling of fMRI responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed L Seghier

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Functional imaging studies of brain damaged patients offer a unique opportunity to understand how sensori-motor and cognitive tasks can be carried out when parts of the neural system that support normal performance are no longer available. In addition to knowing which regions a patient activates, we also need to know how these regions interact with one another, and how these inter-regional interactions deviate from normal. Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM offers the opportunity to assess task-dependent interactions within a set of regions. Here we review its use in patients when the question of interest concerns the characterisation of abnormal connectivity for a given pathology. We describe the currently available implementations of DCM for fMRI responses, varying from the deterministic bilinear models with one-state equation to the stochastic nonlinear models with two-state equations. We also highlight the importance of the new Bayesian model selection and averaging tools that allow different plausible models to be compared at the single subject and group level. These procedures allow inferences to be made at different levels of model selection, from features (model families to connectivity parameters. Following a critical review of previous DCM studies that investigated abnormal connectivity we propose a systematic procedure that will ensure more flexibility and efficiency when using DCM in patients. Finally, some practical and methodological issues crucial for interpreting or generalising DCM findings in patients are discussed.

  3. A causal model of post-traumatic stress disorder: disentangling predisposed from acquired neural abnormalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Admon, Roee; Milad, Mohammed R; Hendler, Talma

    2013-07-01

    Discriminating neural abnormalities into the causes versus consequences of psychopathology would enhance the translation of neuroimaging findings into clinical practice. By regarding the traumatic encounter as a reference point for disease onset, neuroimaging studies of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can potentially allocate PTSD neural abnormalities to either predisposing (pre-exposure) or acquired (post-exposure) factors. Based on novel research strategies in PTSD neuroimaging, including genetic, environmental, twin, and prospective studies, we provide a causal model that accounts for neural abnormalities in PTSD, and outline its clinical implications. Current data suggest that abnormalities within the amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex represent predisposing risk factors for developing PTSD, whereas dysfunctional hippocampal-ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) interactions may become evident only after having developed the disorder. PMID:23768722

  4. Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

  5. Causal mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method......The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method...

  6. Relativistic causal hydrodynamics derived from Boltzmann equation: A novel reduction theoretical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsumura, Kyosuke; Kikuchi, Yuta; Kunihiro, Teiji

    2015-10-01

    We derive the second-order hydrodynamic equation and the microscopic formulas of the relaxation times as well as the transport coefficients systematically from the relativistic Boltzmann equation. Our derivation is based on a novel development of the renormalization-group method, a powerful reduction theory of dynamical systems, which has been applied successfully to derive the nonrelativistic second-order hydrodynamic equation. Our theory nicely gives a compact expression of the deviation of the distribution function in terms of the linearized collision operator, which is different from those used as an ansatz in the conventional fourteen-moment method. It is confirmed that the resultant microscopic expressions of the transport coefficients coincide with those derived in the Chapman-Enskog expansion method. Furthermore, we show that the microscopic expressions of the relaxation times have natural and physically plausible forms. We prove that the propagating velocities of the fluctuations of the hydrodynamical variables do not exceed the light velocity, and hence our second-order equation ensures the desired causality. It is also confirmed that the equilibrium state is stable for any perturbation described by our equation.

  7. The Epstein-Glaser causal approach to the Light-Front QED$_{4}$. I: Free theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles $\\left( k^{+}\\right) ^{-n}$ arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use rigorous mathematical machinery of distributions combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties in the framework of Wightman's formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar, fermionic fields and for t...

  8. The Temporal Logic of Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Kleinberg, Samantha

    2012-01-01

    Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine from just the numerical time course data alone what is coordinating the visible processes, to separate the underlying prima facie causes into genuine and spurious causes and to do so with a feasible computational complexity. For this purpose, we have been developing a novel algorithm based on a framework that combines notions of causality in philosophy with algorithmic approaches built on model checking and statistical techniques for multiple hypotheses testing. The causal relationships are described in terms of temporal logic formulae, reframing the inference problem in terms of model checking. The logic used, PCTL, allows description of both the time between cause and effect and the probability of this relationship being observed. We show that equipped with these causal f...

  9. The Epstein–Glaser causal approach to the light-front QED{sub 4}. I: Free theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bufalo, R., E-mail: rodrigobufalo@gmail.com; Pimentel, B.M., E-mail: pimentel@ift.unesp.br; Soto, D.E., E-mail: danielsb@ift.unesp.br

    2014-12-15

    In this work we present the study of light-front field theories in the realm of the axiomatic theory. It is known that when one uses the light-cone gauge pathological poles (k{sup +}){sup −n} arises, demanding a prescription to be employed in order to tame these ill-defined poles and to have the correct Feynman integrals due to the lack of Wick rotation in such theories. In order to shed a new light on this long standing problem we present here a discussion based on the use of rigorous mathematical machinery of the distributional theory combined with physical concepts, such as causality, to show how to deal with these singular propagators in a general fashion without making use of any prescription. The first step of our development will consist in showing how the analytic representation for propagators arises by requiring general physical properties within the framework of Wightman’s formalism. From that we shall determine the equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front form for the scalar and fermionic fields, as well as for the dynamical components of the electromagnetic field. In conclusion, we introduce the Epstein–Glaser causal method in order to have a mathematical rigorous description of the free propagators of the theory, allowing us to discuss a general treatment for propagators of the type (k{sup +}){sup −n}. Afterwards, we show that at given conditions our results reproduce known prescriptions in the literature. - Highlights: • We develop the analytic representation for propagators in Wightman’s framework. • We make use of the analytic representation to obtain equal-time (anti)commutation relations in the light-front. • We derive the free Feynman propagators for the light-front quantum electrodynamics in the Epstein–Glaser approach. • We determine a general expression for the propagator associated to the light-cone poles (k{sup +}){sup −n} in the causal approach.

  10. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari;

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological......This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied...... implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets. The...

  11. Dynamic causal models and physiological inference: a validation study using isoflurane anaesthesia in rodents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalyn J Moran

    Full Text Available Generative models of neuroimaging and electrophysiological data present new opportunities for accessing hidden or latent brain states. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM uses Bayesian model inversion and selection to infer the synaptic mechanisms underlying empirically observed brain responses. DCM for electrophysiological data, in particular, aims to estimate the relative strength of synaptic transmission at different cell types and via specific neurotransmitters. Here, we report a DCM validation study concerning inference on excitatory and inhibitory synaptic transmission, using different doses of a volatile anaesthetic agent (isoflurane to parametrically modify excitatory and inhibitory synaptic processing while recording local field potentials (LFPs from primary auditory cortex (A1 and the posterior auditory field (PAF in the auditory belt region in rodents. We test whether DCM can infer, from the LFP measurements, the expected drug-induced changes in synaptic transmission mediated via fast ionotropic receptors; i.e., excitatory (glutamatergic AMPA and inhibitory GABA(A receptors. Cross- and auto-spectra from the two regions were used to optimise three DCMs based on biologically plausible neural mass models and specific network architectures. Consistent with known extrinsic connectivity patterns in sensory hierarchies, we found that a model comprising forward connections from A1 to PAF and backward connections from PAF to A1 outperformed a model with forward connections from PAF to A1 and backward connections from A1 to PAF and a model with reciprocal lateral connections. The parameter estimates from the most plausible model indicated that the amplitude of fast glutamatergic excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs and inhibitory postsynaptic potentials (IPSPs behaved as predicted by previous neurophysiological studies. Specifically, with increasing levels of anaesthesia, glutamatergic EPSPs decreased linearly, whereas fast GABAergic IPSPs

  12. Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

    2016-01-01

    The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

  13. Dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked potentials in the rubber hand illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeller, Daniel; Friston, Karl J; Classen, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between - and within - sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand ("REAL"), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible ("CONGRUENT") or implausible ("INCONGRUENT") position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience. PMID:27241481

  14. The direction of causality between exports and firm performance: microeconomic evidence from Croatia using the matching approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miljana Valdec

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the literature by using propensity score matching to test for causal effects of starting to export on firm performance in Croatian manufacturing firm-level data. The results confirm that exporters have characteristics superior to those of non-exporters. In the main sample specification there is pervasive evidence of self-selection into export markets, meaning that firms are successful years before they become exporters. Using multiple firm performance indicators, panel and cross section data models together with various sample specifications there is scant evidence on learning-by-exporting which holds true only in a few cases. On the other hand, higher sales growth is found to be a more conclusive distinguishing characteristic of new exporters. As in similar studies, we find that a part of the results depends on the number of export starters in the estimation sample.

  15. Extended Traffic Alert Information to Improve TCAS Performance by means of Causal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Near-midair collisions (NMACs between aircraft have long been a primary safety concern and have incessantly motivated the development of ingenious onboard collision avoidance (CA systems to reduce collision risk. The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS acts as a proverbially accepted last-resort means to resolve encounters, while it also has been proved to potentially induce a collision in the hectic and congested traffic. This paper aims to improve the TCAS collision avoidance performance by enriching traffic alert information, which strictly fits with present TCAS technological requirements and extends the threat detection considering induced collisions and probabilistic pilot response. The proposed model is specified in coloured Petri net (CPN formalism, to generate by simulation all the future possible downstream reachable states to enhance the follow-up decision making of pilots via synthesising relevant information related to collision states. With the complete state space, the potential collision scenarios can be identified together with those manoeuvres that may transform a conflict into a collision. The causal TCAS model is demonstrated to work effectively for complex multiaircraft scenarios and to identify the feasible manoeuvres that contribute to reduce the nonzero TCAS-induced collision risk.

  16. Infertile Individuals’ Marital Relationship Status, Happiness, and Mental Health: A Causal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Habiballah Ahmadi Forooshany

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study examined the causal model of relation between marital relationship status, happiness, and mental health in infertile individuals. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive study, 155 subjects (men: 52 and women: 78, who had been visited in one of the infertility Centers, voluntarily participated in a self-evaluation. Golombok Rust Inventory of Marital Status, Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, and General Health Questionnaire were used as instruments of the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS17 and Amos 5 software using descriptive statistics, independent sample t test, and path analysis. Results: Disregarding the gender factor, marital relationship status was directly related to happiness (p<0.05 and happiness was directly related to mental health, (p<0.05. Also, indirect relation between marital relationship status and mental health was significant (p<0.05. These results were confirmed in women participants but in men participants only the direct relation between happiness and mental health was significant (p<0.05. Conclusion: Based on goodness of model fit in fitness indexes, happiness had a mediator role in relation between marital relationship status and mental health in infertile individuals disregarding the gender factor. Also, considering the gender factor, only in infertile women, marital relationship status can directly and indirectly affect happiness and mental health.

  17. Taking Emergence Seriously: The Centrality of Circular Causality for Dynamic Systems Approaches to Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witherington, David C.

    2011-01-01

    The dynamic systems (DS) approach has emerged as an influential and potentially unifying metatheory for developmental science. Its central platform--the argument against design--suggests that structure spontaneously and without prescription emerges through self-organization. In one of the most prominent accounts of DS, Thelen and her colleagues…

  18. Causal phase-space approach to fermion theories understood through Clifford algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Wigner-Moyal phase-space approach is developed for the Dirac and Feynman-Gell-Mann equations. The role of spinors as primitive elements of the spacetime and phase-space Clifford algebras is emphasized. A conserved phase-space current is constructed. (orig.)

  19. A meta-frontier approach for causal inference in productivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Mpeta, Daniel F.; Adem, Anwar S.;

    use the approach of Bravo-Ureta, Greene and Solís (2012) to estimate two separate production frontiers (one for contract farmers and one for non-contract farmers) that account for potential biases due to self-selection on both observed and unobserved variables. Then, we follow Rao, Brümmer and Qaim...... impact on efficiency and productivity is mostly overlooked. This study addresses this salient gap by combining the approaches suggested by BravoUreta, Greene, and Solís (Empirical Economics 43:55–72, 2012) and Rao, Brümmer, and Qaim (American Journal of Agricultural Economics 94:891–912, 2012). We first...

  20. Correlation Measure Equivalence in Dynamic Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Gyongyosi, Laszlo

    2016-01-01

    We prove an equivalence transformation between the correlation measure functions of the causally-unbiased quantum gravity space and the causally-biased standard space. The theory of quantum gravity fuses the dynamic (nonfixed) causal structure of general relativity and the quantum uncertainty of quantum mechanics. In a quantum gravity space, the events are causally nonseparable and all time bias vanishes, which makes it no possible to use the standard causally-biased entropy and the correlation measure functions. Since a corrected causally-unbiased entropy function leads to an undefined, obscure mathematical structure, in our approach the correction is made in the data representation of the causally-unbiased space. We prove that the standard causally-biased entropy function with a data correction can be used to identify correlations in dynamic causal structures. As a corollary, all mathematical properties of the causally-biased correlation measure functions are preserved in the causally-unbiased space. The eq...

  1. Revisiting Causality in Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Shojaee, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    Identifying causal relationships is a key premise of scientific research. The growth of observational data in different disciplines along with the availability of machine learning methods offers the possibility of using an empirical approach to identifying potential causal relationships, to deepen our understandings of causal behavior and to build theories accordingly. Conventional methods of causality inference from observational data require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause-effect relationship. We find that potential causal relationships can be inferred from the composition of one step transition rates to and from an event. Also known as Markov chain, one step transition rates are a commonly available resource in different scientific disciplines. Here we introduce a simple, effective and computationally efficient method that we termed 'Causality Inference using Composition of Transitions CICT' to reveal causal structure with high accuracy. We characterize the differences in causes,...

  2. Causal relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan: a multivariate approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hazuki Ishida

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores whether Japanese economy can continue to grow without extensive dependence on fossil fuels. The paper conducts time series analysis using a multivariate model of fossil fuels, non-fossil energy, labor, stock and GDP to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan. The results of cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among the variables. Using a vector error-correction model, the study reveals bidirectional causalit...

  3. On modeling HIV and T cells in vivo: assessing causal estimators in vaccine trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W David Wick

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The first efficacy trials--named STEP--of a T cell vaccine against HIV/AIDS began in 2004. The unprecedented structure of these trials raised new modeling and statistical challenges. Is it plausible that memory T cells, as opposed to antibodies, can actually prevent infection? If they fail at prevention, to what extent can they ameliorate disease? And how do we estimate efficacy in a vaccine trial with two primary endpoints, one traditional, one entirely novel (viral load after infection, and where the latter may be influenced by selection bias due to the former? In preparation for the STEP trials, biostatisticians developed novel techniques for estimating a causal effect of a vaccine on viral load, while accounting for post-randomization selection bias. But these techniques have not been tested in biologically plausible scenarios. We introduce new stochastic models of T cell and HIV kinetics, making use of new estimates of the rate that cytotoxic T lymphocytes--CTLs; the so-called killer T cells--can kill HIV-infected cells. Based on these models, we make the surprising discovery that it is not entirely implausible that HIV-specific CTLs might prevent infection--as the designers explicitly acknowledged when they chose the endpoints of the STEP trials. By simulating thousands of trials, we demonstrate that the new statistical methods can correctly identify an efficacious vaccine, while protecting against a false conclusion that the vaccine exacerbates disease. In addition to uncovering a surprising immunological scenario, our results illustrate the utility of mechanistic modeling in biostatistics.

  4. Causal matrix approach to structural change analysis: an application to Andalusian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Alejandro Cardenete

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to study the structural change in the Andalusianeconomy during the period 2000-2005 using social accounting matrices.Although there are several methods, the causative matrix approach has been usedto analyze the above mentioned change. The study has been done using a matrixwith 26 productive sectors and three endogenous accounts, labor income, capitalincome and private consumption. The results show that changes vary from one toanother sector and cause of these may be due to influence of own sector, of rest ofthe sectors or of both.

  5. Dynamic causal modelling of eye movements during pursuit: Confirming precision-encoding in V1 using MEG

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, R. A.; Bauer, M.; Pinotsis, D; Friston, K J

    2016-01-01

    This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories a...

  6. Reasoning the Causality of City Sprawl, Traffic Congestion, and Green Land Disappearance in Taiwan Using the CLD Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Chih Chen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Many city governments choose to supply more developable land and transportation infrastructure with the hope of attracting people and businesses to their cities. However, like those in Taiwan, major cities worldwide suffer from traffic congestion. This study applies the system thinking logic of the causal loops diagram (CLD model in the System Dynamics (SD approach to analyze the issue of traffic congestion and other issues related to roads and land development in Taiwan’s cities. Comparing the characteristics of development trends with yearbook data for 2002 to 2013 for all of Taiwan’s cities, this study explores the developing phenomenon of unlimited city sprawl and identifies the cause and effect relationships in the characteristics of development trends in traffic congestion, high-density population aggregation in cities, land development, and green land disappearance resulting from city sprawl. This study provides conclusions for Taiwan’s cities’ sustainability and development (S&D. When developing S&D policies, during decision making processes concerning city planning and land use management, governments should think with a holistic view of carrying capacity with the assistance of system thinking to clarify the prejudices in favor of the unlimited developing phenomena resulting from city sprawl.

  7. Causal approach for the electron-positron scattering in Generalized Quantum Electrodynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study the generalized electrodynamics contribution for the electron-positron scattering process, $e^{-}e^{+}\\rightarrow e^{-}e^{+}$, the Bhabha scattering. Within the framework of the standard model, for energies larger when compared to the electron mass, we calculate the cross section expression for the scattering process. This quantity is usually calculated in the framework of the Maxwell electrodynamics and, by phenomenological reasons, corrected by a cut-off parameter. On...

  8. A structural equation model of soil metal bioavailability to earthworms: confronting causal theory and observations using a laboratory exposure to field-contaminated soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumelle, Léa; Vile, Denis; Lamy, Isabelle; Vandenbulcke, Franck; Gimbert, Frédéric; Hedde, Mickaël

    2016-11-01

    Structural equation models (SEM) are increasingly used in ecology as multivariate analysis that can represent theoretical variables and address complex sets of hypotheses. Here we demonstrate the interest of SEM in ecotoxicology, more precisely to test the three-step concept of metal bioavailability to earthworms. The SEM modeled the three-step causal chain between environmental availability, environmental bioavailability and toxicological bioavailability. In the model, each step is an unmeasured (latent) variable reflected by several observed variables. In an exposure experiment designed specifically to test this SEM for Cd, Pb and Zn, Aporrectodea caliginosa was exposed to 31 agricultural field-contaminated soils. Chemical and biological measurements used included CaC12-extractable metal concentrations in soils, free ion concentration in soil solution as predicted by a geochemical model, dissolved metal concentration as predicted by a semi-mechanistic model, internal metal concentrations in total earthworms and in subcellular fractions, and several biomarkers. The observations verified the causal definition of Cd and Pb bioavailability in the SEM, but not for Zn. Several indicators consistently reflected the hypothetical causal definition and could thus be pertinent measurements of Cd and Pb bioavailability to earthworm in field-contaminated soils. SEM highlights that the metals present in the soil solution and easily extractable are not the main source of available metals for earthworms. This study further highlights SEM as a powerful tool that can handle natural ecosystem complexity, thus participating to the paradigm change in ecotoxicology from a bottom-up to a top-down approach. PMID:27378153

  9. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  10. ARTS: A System-Level Framework for Modeling MPSoC Components and Analysis of their Causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahadevan, Shankar; Storgaard, Michael; Madsen, Jan;

    2005-01-01

    Designing complex heterogeneousmultiprocessor Systemon- Chip (MPSoC) requires support for modeling and analysis of the different layers i.e. application, operating system (OS) and platform architecture. This paper presents an abstract system-level modeling framework, called ARTS, to support the...... MPSoC designers in modeling the different layers and understanding their causalities. While others have developed tools for static analysis and modeled limited correlations (processor-memory or processor-communication), our model captures the impact of dynamic and unpredictable OS behaviour on...... platform for a handheld terminal shows our frameworks co-exploration capabilities....

  11. Rent Seeking and Group Interest on Petroleum Revenue in the Nigerian Economy: a Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.N. Ogbonna

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examines rent seeking and group interest on petroleum income and the effect on the Nigerian economy. To achieve the objective of this paper, relevant secondary and primary data were obtained from published scholar works and questionnaires and relevant statistical models were used for analysis. The study reveals that rent seeking and group interest is a fundamental problem affecting the socio-economic and political development of Nigeria with impunity by the political class, the mafia, militants, Boko Haram and oil cabals in order to share in the resource pie as a result of the huge petroleum income accruable to the nation. It does not only penalize or disrupt productive activities, distorts the entire economy and hinders economic growth where significant percent of public funds and oil revenue are diverted into their personal accounts and private pockets. On the basis of this result, the paper concludes that for the huge amount of petroleum income in Nigeria to improve the living standards of the people, the citizens must show a high level of ethical behavior of integrity, honesty and accountability for the level of massive corruption in the country to be minimized for the citizens to benefit from the huge petroleum income in Nigeria.

  12. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  13. Causality Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Do Minh

    2001-01-01

    We advance a famous principle - causality principle - but under a new view. This principle is a principium automatically leading to most fundamental laws of the nature. It is the inner origin of variation, rules evolutionary processes of things, and the answer of the quest for ultimate theories of the Universe.

  14. Altered retrieval of melodic information in congenital amusia: Insights from Dynamic Causal Modeling of MEG data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eAlbouy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder that primarily manifests as a difficulty in the perception and memory of pitch-based materials, including music. Recent findings have shown that the amusic brain exhibits altered functioning of a fronto-temporal network during pitch perception and memory. Within this network, during the encoding of melodies, a decreased right backward frontal-to-temporal connectivity was reported in amusia, along with an abnormal connectivity within and between auditory cortices. The present study investigated whether connectivity patterns between these regions were affected during the retrieval of melodies. Amusics and controls had to indicate whether sequences of six tones that were presented in pairs were the same or different. When melodies were different only one tone changed in the second melody. Brain responses to the changed tone in Different trials and to its equivalent (original tone in Same trials were compared between groups using Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. DCM results confirmed that congenital amusia is characterized by an altered effective connectivity within and between the two auditory cortices during sound processing. Furthermore, right temporal-to-frontal message passing was altered in comparison to controls, with an increase in Same trials and a decrease in Different trials. An additional analysis in control participants emphasized that the detection of an unexpected event in the typically functioning brain is supported by right fronto-temporal connections. The results can be interpreted in a predictive coding framework as reflecting an abnormal prediction error sent by temporal auditory regions towards frontal areas in the amusic brain.

  15. Inhibitory behavioral control: A stochastic dynamic causal modeling study comparing cocaine dependent subjects and controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangsuo Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cocaine dependence is associated with increased impulsivity in humans. Both cocaine dependence and impulsive behavior are under the regulatory control of cortico-striatal networks. One behavioral laboratory measure of impulsivity is response inhibition (ability to withhold a prepotent response in which altered patterns of regional brain activation during executive tasks in service of normal performance are frequently found in cocaine dependent (CD subjects studied with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. However, little is known about aberrations in specific directional neuronal connectivity in CD subjects. The present study employed fMRI-based dynamic causal modeling (DCM to study the effective (directional neuronal connectivity associated with response inhibition in CD subjects, elicited under performance of a Go/NoGo task with two levels of NoGo difficulty (Easy and Hard. The performance on the Go/NoGo task was not significantly different between CD subjects and controls. The DCM analysis revealed that prefrontal–striatal connectivity was modulated (influenced during the NoGo conditions for both groups. The effective connectivity from left (L anterior cingulate cortex (ACC to L caudate was similarly modulated during the Easy NoGo condition for both groups. During the Hard NoGo condition in controls, the effective connectivity from right (R dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC to L caudate became more positive, and the effective connectivity from R ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC to L caudate became more negative. In CD subjects, the effective connectivity from L ACC to L caudate became more negative during the Hard NoGo conditions. These results indicate that during Hard NoGo trials in CD subjects, the ACC rather than DLPFC or VLPFC influenced caudate during response inhibition.

  16. Aging into perceptual control: A Dynamic Causal Modeling for fMRI study of bistable perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan eDowlati

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Aging is accompanied by stereotyped changes in functional brain activations, for example a cortical shift in activity patterns from posterior to anterior regions is one hallmark revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI of aging cognition. Whether these neuronal effects of aging could potentially contribute to an amelioration of or resistance to the cognitive symptoms associated with psychopathology remains to be explored. We used a visual illusion paradigm to address whether aging affects the cortical control of perceptual beliefs and biases. Our aim was to understand the effective connectivity associated with volitional control of ambiguous visual stimuli and to test whether greater top-down control of early visual networks emerged with advancing age. Using a bias training paradigm for ambiguous images we found that older participants (n = 16 resisted experimenter-induced visual bias compared to a younger cohort (n = 14 and that this resistance was associated with greater activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices. By applying Dynamic Causal Models for fMRI we uncovered a selective recruitment of top-down connections from the middle temporal to lingual gyrus by the older cohort during the perceptual switch decision following bias training. In contrast, our younger cohort did not exhibit any consistent connectivity effects but instead showed a loss of driving inputs to orbitofrontal sources following training. These findings suggest that perceptual beliefs are more readily controlled by top-down strategies in older adults and introduce age-dependent neural mechanisms that may be important for understanding aberrant belief states associated with psychopathology.

  17. On the estimation of causality in a bivariate dynamic probit model on panel data with Stata software. A technical review

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Delattre; Richard Moussa

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess causality between binary economic outcomes, we consider the estimation of a bivariate dynamic probit model on panel data that has the particulary to account the initial conditions of the dynamic process. Due to the untractable form of the likelihood function that is a two dimensions integral, we use an approximation method: the adaptative Gauss-Hermite quadrature method as proposed by Liu and Pierce (1994). For the accuracy of the method and to reduce computing time, we der...

  18. Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models

    OpenAIRE

    Amiri, Arshia; Gerdtham, Ulf-G

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowle...

  19. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  20. A Granger causality measure for point process models of ensemble neural spiking activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanggyun Kim

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The ability to identify directional interactions that occur among multiple neurons in the brain is crucial to an understanding of how groups of neurons cooperate in order to generate specific brain functions. However, an optimal method of assessing these interactions has not been established. Granger causality has proven to be an effective method for the analysis of the directional interactions between multiple sets of continuous-valued data, but cannot be applied to neural spike train recordings due to their discrete nature. This paper proposes a point process framework that enables Granger causality to be applied to point process data such as neural spike trains. The proposed framework uses the point process likelihood function to relate a neuron's spiking probability to possible covariates, such as its own spiking history and the concurrent activity of simultaneously recorded neurons. Granger causality is assessed based on the relative reduction of the point process likelihood of one neuron obtained excluding one of its covariates compared to the likelihood obtained using all of its covariates. The method was tested on simulated data, and then applied to neural activity recorded from the primary motor cortex (MI of a Felis catus subject. The interactions present in the simulated data were predicted with a high degree of accuracy, and when applied to the real neural data, the proposed method identified causal relationships between many of the recorded neurons. This paper proposes a novel method that successfully applies Granger causality to point process data, and has the potential to provide unique physiological insights when applied to neural spike trains.

  1. On the Axioms of Causal Set Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dribus, Benjamin F

    2013-01-01

    This paper offers suggested improvements to the causal sets program in discrete gravity, which treats spacetime geometry as an emergent manifestation of causal structure at the fundamental scale. This viewpoint, which I refer to as the causal metric hypothesis, is summarized by Rafael Sorkin's phrase, "order plus number equals geometry." Proposed improvements include recognition of a generally nontransitive causal relation more fundamental than the causal order, an improved local picture of causal structure, development and use of relation space methods, and a new background-independent version of the histories approach to quantum theory. Besides causal set theory, \\`a la Bombelli, Lee, Meyer, and Sorkin, this effort draws on Isham's topos-theoretic framework for physics, Sorkin's quantum measure theory, Finkelstein's causal nets, and Grothendieck's structural principles. This approach circumvents undesirable structural features in causal set theory, such as the permeability of maximal antichains, studied by ...

  2. HEDR modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

  3. Ensemble of Causal Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We discuss the geometry of trees endowed with a causal structure using the conventional framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics. We show how this ensemble is related to popular growing network models. In particular we demonstrate that on a class of afine attachment kernels the two models are identical but they can differ substantially for other choice of weights. We show that causal trees exhibit condensation even for asymptotically linear kernels. We derive general formulae describing the degree distribution, the ancestor--descendant correlation and the probability that a randomly chosen node lives at a given geodesic distance from the root. It is shown that the Hausdorff dimension dH of the causal networks is generically infinite. (author)

  4. Ensemble of Causal Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialas, Piotr

    2003-10-01

    We discuss the geometry of trees endowed with a causal structure using the conventional framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics. We show how this ensemble is related to popular growing network models. In particular we demonstrate that on a class of afine attachment kernels the two models are identical but they can differ substantially for other choice of weights. We show that causal trees exhibit condensation even for asymptotically linear kernels. We derive general formulae describing the degree distribution, the ancestor--descendant correlation and the probability that a randomly chosen node lives at a given geodesic distance from the root. It is shown that the Hausdorff dimension dH of the causal networks is generically infinite.

  5. Using causal models to distinguish between neurogenesis-dependent and -independent effects on behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Lazic, Stanley E

    2011-01-01

    There has been a substantial amount of research on the relationship between hippocampal neurogenesis and behaviour over the past fifteen years, but the causal role that new neurons have on cognitive and affective behavioural tasks is still far from clear. This is partly due to the difficulty of manipulating levels of neurogenesis without inducing off-target effects, which might also influence behaviour. In addition, the analytical methods typically used do not directly test whether neurogenes...

  6. An environmental impact causal model for improving the environmental performance of construction processes

    OpenAIRE

    Fuertes Casals, Alba; Casals Casanova, Miquel; Gangolells Solanellas, Marta; Forcada Matheu, Núria; Macarulla Martí, Marcel; Roca Ramon, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Despite the increasing efforts made by the construction sector to reduce the environmental impact of their processes, construction sites are still a major source of pollution and adverse impacts on the environment. This paper aims to improve the understanding of construction-related environmental impacts by identifying on-site causal factors and associated immediate circumstances during construc- tion processes for residential building projects. Based on the literature and focus g...

  7. Causal Relationship Model of the Information and Communication Technology Skill Affect the Technology Acceptance Process in the 21ST Century for Undergraduate Students

    OpenAIRE

    Thanyatorn Amornkitpinyo; Pallop Piriyasurawong

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to design a framework for a causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process (TAP) for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. This research uses correlational analysis. A consideration of the research methodology is divided into two sections. The first section involves a synthesis concept framework for process acceptance of the causal relationship model of the Information and Com...

  8. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  9. Nonsingularity of Flat Robertson-Walker Models in the Special Relativistic Approach to Einstein's Equations

    OpenAIRE

    Pitts, J. Brian; Schieve, W. C.

    2004-01-01

    Recently the neglected issue of the causal structure in the flat spacetime approach to Einstein's theory of gravity has been substantially resolved. Consistency requires that the flat metric's null cone be respected by the null cone of the effective curved metric. While consistency is not automatic, thoughtful use of the naive gauge freedom resolves the problem. After briefly recapitulating how consistent causality is achieved, we consider the flat Robertson-Walker Big Bang model. The Big Ban...

  10. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  11. A New Life-Span Approach to Conscientiousness and Health: Combining the Pieces of the Causal Puzzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Howard S.; Kern, Margaret L.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2014-01-01

    Conscientiousness has been shown to predict healthy behaviors, healthy social relationships, and physical health and longevity. The causal links, however, are complex and not well elaborated. Many extant studies have used comparable measures for conscientiousness, and a systematic endeavor to build cross-study analyses for conscientiousness and…

  12. Normalizability analysis of the generalized quantum electrodynamics from the causal point of view

    OpenAIRE

    Bufalo, R.; Pimentel, B. M.; Soto, D. E.

    2015-01-01

    The causal perturbation theory is an axiomatic perturbative theory of the S-matrix. This formalism has as its essence the following axioms: causality, Lorentz invariance and asymptotic conditions. Any other property must be showed via the inductive method order-by-order and, of course, it depends on the particular physical model. In this work we shall study the normalizability of the generalized quantum electrodynamics in the framework of the causal approach. Furthermore, we analyse the impli...

  13. Effective connectivity within the default mode network: dynamic causal modeling of resting-state fMRI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksim eSharaev

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Default Mode Network (DMN is a brain system that mediates internal modes of cognitive activity, showing higher neural activation when one is at rest. Nowadays, there is a lot of interest in assessing functional interactions between its key regions, but in the majority of studies only association of BOLD (Blood-oxygen-level dependent activation patterns is measured, so it is impossible to identify causal influences. There are some studies of causal interactions (i.e. effective connectivity, however often with inconsistent results. The aim of the current work is to find a stable pattern of connectivity between four DMN key regions: the medial prefrontal cortex mPFC, the posterior cingulate cortex PCC, left and right intraparietal cortex LIPC and RIPC. For this purpose fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 healthy subjects (1000 time points from each one was acquired and spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM on a resting-state fMRI data was performed. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Discrete Cosine Set at the low frequency band of 0.0078–0.1 Hz. The best model at the group level is the one where connections from both bilateral IPC to mPFC and PCC are significant and symmetrical in strength (p<0.05. Connections between mPFC and PCC are bidirectional, significant in the group and weaker than connections originating from bilateral IPC. In general, all connections from LIPC/RIPC to other DMN regions are much stronger. One can assume that these regions have a driving role within the DMN. Our results replicate some data from earlier works on effective connectivity within the DMN as well as provide new insights on internal DMN relationships and brain’s functioning at resting state.

  14. Towards the Accuracy of Cybernetic Strategy Planning Models: Causal Proof and Function Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian A. Hillbrand

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available All kind of strategic tasks within an enterprise require a deep understanding of its critical key success factors and their interrelations as well as an in-depth analysis of relevant environmental influences. Due to the openness of the underlying system, there seems to be an indefinite number of unknown variables influencing strategic goals. Cybernetic or systemic planning techniques try to overcome this intricacy by modeling the most important cause-and-effect relations within such a system. Although it seems to be obvious that there are specific influences between business variables, it is mostly impossible to identify the functional dependencies underlying such relations. Hence simulation or evaluation techniques based on such hypothetically assumed models deliver inaccurate results or fail completely. This paper addresses the need for accurate strategy planning models and proposes an approach to prove their cause-andeffect relations by empirical evidence. Based on this foundation an approach for the approximation of the underlying cause-andeffect function by the means of Artificial Neural Networks is developed.

  15. Zigzagging causality EPR model: answer to Vigier and coworkers and to Sutherland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concept of propagation in time of Vigier and co-workers (V et al.) implies the ideal of a supertime; it is thus alien to most Minkowskian pictures and certainly to the authors. From this stems much of V et al.'s misunderstandings of his position. In steady motion of a classical fluid nobody thinks that momentum conservation is violated, or that momentum is shot upstream without cause because of the suction from the sinks. Similarly with momentum-energy in spacetime and the acceptance of an advanced causality. As for the CT invariance of the Feynman propagator, the causality asymmetry it entails is factlike, not lawlike. The geometrical counterpart of the symmetry between prediction and retrodiction and between retarded and advanced waves, as expressed in the alternative expressions = = for a transition amplitude between a preparation lt. slashA> and a measurement lt. slashB>, is CPT-invariant, not PT-invariant. These three expressions respectively illustrate the collapse, the retrocollapse, and the symmetric collapse-and-retrocollapse concepts. As for Sutherland's argument, what it falsifies is not the authors retrocausation concept but the hidden-variables assumption he has unwittingly made

  16. Causal model of safety-checking action of the staff of nuclear power plants and the organization climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For those who run an organization, it is critical to identify the causal relationship between the organization's characteristics and the safety-checking action of its staff, in order to effectively implement activities for promoting safety. In this research. a causal model of the safety-checking action was developed and factors affecting it were studied. A questionnaire survey, which includes safety awareness, attitude toward safety, safety culture and others, was conducted at three nuclear power plants and eight factors were extracted by means of factor analysis of the questionnaire items. The extracted eight interrelated factors were as follows: work norm, supervisory action, interest in training, recognition of importance, safety-checking action, the subject of safety, knowledge/skills, and the attitude of an organization. Among them, seven factors except the recognition of importance were defined as latent variables and a causal model of safety-checking action was constructed. By means of covariance structure analysis, it was found that the three factors: the attitude of an organization, supervisory action and the subject of safety, have a significant effect on the safety-checking action. Moreover, it was also studied that workplaces in which these three factors are highly regarded form social environment where safety-checking action is fully supported by the workplace as a whole, while workplaces in which these three factors are poorly regarded do not fully form social environment where safety-checking action is supported. Therefore, the workplaces form an organizational environment where safety-checking action tends to depend strongly upon the knowledge or skills of individuals. On top of these, it was noted that the attitude of an organization and supervisory action are important factors that serve as the first trigger affecting the formation of the organizational climate for safety. (author)

  17. A systems genetics approach implicates USF1, FADS3, and other causal candidate genes for familial combined hyperlipidemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Plaisier

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesized that a common SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the upstream transcription factor 1 (USF1, rs3737787, may affect lipid traits by influencing gene expression levels, and we investigated this possibility utilizing the Mexican population, which has a high predisposition to dyslipidemia. We first associated rs3737787 genotypes in Mexican Familial Combined Hyperlipidemia (FCHL case/control fat biopsies, with global expression patterns. To identify sets of co-expressed genes co-regulated by similar factors such as transcription factors, genetic variants, or environmental effects, we utilized weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA. Through WGCNA in the Mexican FCHL fat biopsies we identified two significant Triglyceride (TG-associated co-expression modules. One of these modules was also associated with FCHL, the other FCHL component traits, and rs3737787 genotypes. This USF1-regulated FCHL-associated (URFA module was enriched for genes involved in lipid metabolic processes. Using systems genetics procedures we identified 18 causal candidate genes in the URFA module. The FCHL causal candidate gene fatty acid desaturase 3 (FADS3 was associated with TGs in a recent Caucasian genome-wide significant association study and we replicated this association in Mexican FCHL families. Based on a USF1-regulated FCHL-associated co-expression module and SNP rs3737787, we identify a set of causal candidate genes for FCHL-related traits. We then provide evidence from two independent datasets supporting FADS3 as a causal gene for FCHL and elevated TGs in Mexicans.

  18. From meta-omics to causality: experimental models for human microbiome research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Joëlle V; Desai, Mahesh S; Shah, Pranjul; Schneider, Jochen G; Wilmes, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale 'meta-omic' projects are greatly advancing our knowledge of the human microbiome and its specific role in governing health and disease states. A myriad of ongoing studies aim at identifying links between microbial community disequilibria (dysbiosis) and human diseases. However, due to the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of the human microbiome, cross-sectional, case-control and longitudinal studies may not have enough statistical power to allow causation to be deduced from patterns of association between variables in high-resolution omic datasets. Therefore, to move beyond reliance on the empirical method, experiments are critical. For these, robust experimental models are required that allow the systematic manipulation of variables to test the multitude of hypotheses, which arise from high-throughput molecular studies. Particularly promising in this respect are microfluidics-based in vitro co-culture systems, which allow high-throughput first-pass experiments aimed at proving cause-and-effect relationships prior to testing of hypotheses in animal models. This review focuses on widely used in vivo, in vitro, ex vivo and in silico approaches to study host-microbial community interactions. Such systems, either used in isolation or in a combinatory experimental approach, will allow systematic investigations of the impact of microbes on the health and disease of the human host. All the currently available models present pros and cons, which are described and discussed. Moreover, suggestions are made on how to develop future experimental models that not only allow the study of host-microbiota interactions but are also amenable to high-throughput experimentation. PMID:24450613

  19. Modelling approaches for angiogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taraboletti, G; Giavazzi, R

    2004-04-01

    The development of a functional vasculature within a tumour is a requisite for its growth and progression. This fact has led to the design of therapies directed toward the tumour vasculature, aiming either to prevent the formation of new vessels (anti-angiogenic) or to damage existing vessels (vascular targeting). The development of agents with different mechanisms of action requires powerful preclinical models for the analysis and optimization of these therapies. This review concerns 'classical' assays of angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo, recent approaches to target identification (analysis of gene and protein expression), and the study of morphological and functional changes in the vasculature in vivo (imaging techniques). It mainly describes assays designed for anti-angiogenic compounds, indicating, where possible, their application to the study of vascular-targeting agents. PMID:15120043

  20. Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the EU energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the European Union member states in the period 1993–2011. The study is divided into two main stages. During the first one, using cluster analysis methods, four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified. During the second stage, the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach proposed by Kònya (2006) was used to verify the hypothesis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the countries from four groups created in the previous step. The global financial crisis was also taken into account. The results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth. The results indicate causal relations in the group of countries with the greatest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the highest reduction of energy intensity and the highest share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. In the remaining groups the results mostly confirm the neutrality hypothesis. - Highlights: • Four groups of EU countries which meet energy policy targets at similar levels were identified. • Energy-growth nexus depends on the level of compliance with energy policy targets. • Most EU countries confirm the neutrality hypothesis. • Countries which meet energy policy targets best confirm remaining hypothesis

  1. Causal Relationship Model of the Information and Communication Technology Skill Affect the Technology Acceptance Process in the 21ST Century for Undergraduate Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanyatorn Amornkitpinyo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to design a framework for a causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process (TAP for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. This research uses correlational analysis. A consideration of the research methodology is divided into two sections. The first section involves a synthesis concept framework for process acceptance of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. The second section proposes the design concept framework of the model. The research findings are as follows: 1 The exogenous latent variables included in the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are basic ICT skills and self-efficacy. 2 The mediating latent variables of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are from the TAM Model, these includes three components: 1 perceived usefulness, 2 perceived ease of use and 3 attitudes. 3 The outcome latent variable of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century is behavioural intention.

  2. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  3. Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2011-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

  4. Re-assessing causal accounts of learnt behavior in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, K V; Dwyer, D M; Honey, R C

    2012-04-01

    Rats received either a common-cause (i.e., A→B, A→food) or a causal-chain training scenario (i.e., B→A, A→food) before their tendency to approach the food magazine during the presentation of B was assessed as a function of whether it was preceded by a potential alternative cause. Causal model theory predicts that the influence of an alternative cause should be restricted to the common-cause scenario. In Experiment 1, responding to B was reduced when it occurred after pressing a novel lever during the test phase. This effect was not influenced by the type of training scenario. In Experiment 2, rats were familiarized with the lever prior to test by training it as a potential cause of B. After this treatment, the lever now failed to influence test responding to B. In Experiment 3, rats given common-cause training responded more to B when it followed a cue that had previously been trained as a predictor of B, than when it followed another stimulus. This effect was not apparent in rats that received causal-chain training. This pattern of results is the opposite of that predicted by causal model theory. Thus, in three experiments, the presence of an alternative cause failed to influence test responding in manner consistent with causal model theory. These results undermine the application of causal model theory to rats, but are consistent with associative analyses. PMID:22486754

  5. MULTIDIMENSIONALITY OF SOCIAL REALITY AND CAUSAL ASYMMETRY OF TIME AS THEORETICAL BASES OF PHENOMENOLOGICAL AND SYSTEM APPROACHES TO THE PROBLEM OF SOCIAL FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plotnikov V. V.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article represents experience of a reflection over theoretical prerequisites of phenomenological and system approaches to a problem of forecasting of social reality. An object of research are the principle of multidimensionality of social reality in aspect of a determinism and indeterminism of social processes, and also the principle of causal asymmetry of time acting as the ontologic basis of multidimensionality of reality. It is claimed, that at the heart of statement of the major philosophical problems there is an experience of a touch to a phenomenon of multidimensionality of reality. Multidimensionality of reality is shown as a dependence of fundamental characteristics on the level of theoretical generalization and an intentionality of the consciousness registering reality in its existence. The hypothesis of multidimensionality of social reality assumes that social processes can be described and as strictly determined, predicted and as depending on a free will of the person depending on the level of theoretical generalization at which they are considered. The principle of causal asymmetry of time is a form of multidimensionality of time and a condition of multidimensionality of process, including social. At the heart of causal asymmetry of time, there is a systemacity of time, not reducibility of time neither to consciousness, nor to life. It is shown that is impossible differently as through the synthesizing activity of consciousness, to connect together two senses, equally directly related at the right time: duration keeping time in some equal unity of the moments and the variability, change of times expressing ontologic exclusiveness of the present moment. Multidimensionality and asymmetry of time can be considered as theoretical prerequisites of phenomenological and system approach to a problem of social forecasting

  6. Behaviour Modelling, Instruction and Exploration Training Approaches in Group and Individual Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truman, G. E.

    2009-01-01

    Behaviour modelling has been associated with higher learning outcomes compared to other training approaches. These cumulative research findings create imperative to examine underlying causal mechanisms or contingency factors that may promote behaviour modelling's advantages even further. We propose group-based learning as one contingency factor…

  7. Detection of motor changes in Huntington’s disease using dynamic causal modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lora Minkova

    2015-11-01

    Seventy-seven healthy controls, 62 pre-symptomatic HD gene carriers (preHD, and 16 patients with manifest HD symptoms (earlyHD performed a motor finger tapping fMRI task with systematically varying speed and complexity. DCM was used to assess the causal interactions among seven pre-defined regions of interest, comprising primary motor cortex, supplementary motor area (SMA, dorsal premotor cortex, and superior parietal cortex. To capture heterogeneity among HD gene carriers, DCM parameters were entered into a hierarchical cluster analysis using Ward’s method and squared Euclidian distance as a measure of similarity. After applying Bonferroni correction for the number of tests, DCM analysis revealed a group difference that was not present in the conventional fMRI analysis. We found an inhibitory effect of complexity on the connection from parietal to premotor areas in preHD, which became excitatory in earlyHD and correlated with putamen atrophy. While speed of finger movements did not modulate the connection from caudal to pre-SMA in controls and preHD, this connection became strongly negative in earlyHD. This second effect did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Hierarchical clustering separated the gene mutation carriers into three clusters which also differed significantly among these two connections and thereby confirmed their relevance. DCM proved useful in identifying group differences that would have remained undetected by standard analyses and may aid in the investigation of between-subject heterogeneity.

  8. Enhancing stakeholder participation in river basin management using mental mapping and causality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, D.

    2009-04-01

    Participation processes play a crucial role in implementing adaptive management in river basins. A range of different participative methods is being applied, however, little is known on their effectiveness in addressing the specific question or policy process at stake and their performance in different socio-economic and cultural settings. To shed light on the role of cultural settings on the outcomes of a participative process we carried out a comparative study of participation processes using group model building (GMB) in a European, a Central Asian, and an African river basin. We use an analytical framework which covers the goals, the role of science and stakeholders, the initiation and methods of the processes framed by very different cultural, socio-economic and biophysical conditions. Across all three basins, the GMB processes produced a shared understanding among all participants of the major water management issues in the respective river basin and common approaches to address them. The "ownership of the ideas" by the stakeholders, i.e. the topic to be addressed in a GMB process, is important for their willingness to contribute to such a participatory process. Differences, however, exist in so far that cultural and contextual constraints of the basin drive the way the GMB processes have been designed and how their results contribute to policy development.

  9. The problem of causality in cultivation research

    OpenAIRE

    Rossmann, Constanze; Brosius, Hans-Bernd

    2004-01-01

    This paper offers an up-to-date review of problems in determining causal relationships in cultivation research, and considers the research rationales of various approaches with special reference to causal interpretation. It describes in turn a number of methodologies for addressing the problem and resolving it as far as this is possible. The issue of causal inference arises not only in cultivation research, however, but is basic to all media effects theories and approaches primarily at the ma...

  10. Narrative organization skills in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and language impairment: application of the causal network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Fei; Timler, Geralyn R

    2008-01-01

    Studies suggest that the oral narratives of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are less organized than those of typically developing peers. Many studies, however, do not account for children's language abilities. Because language impairment (LI) is a frequent comorbid condition in children with ADHD, this exploratory study investigated language abilities and narrative organization skills in children with and without ADHD. Narratives were elicited using the picture-sequence task and the single-picture task from the Test of Narrative Language (Gillam & Pearson, 2004). The causal network model (Trabasso, Van den Broek, & Suh, 1989) was applied to analyse the narratives. Specifically, narratives were examined to identify complete and incomplete superordinate and subordinate Goal-Attempt-Outcome (GAO) units. The results revealed no differences among the groups in the picture-sequence task. Children with ADHD+LI produced significantly fewer complete superordinate GAO units than typical children in the single-picture task. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:18092218

  11. The Visual Causality Analyst: An Interactive Interface for Causal Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Mueller, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Uncovering the causal relations that exist among variables in multivariate datasets is one of the ultimate goals in data analytics. Causation is related to correlation but correlation does not imply causation. While a number of casual discovery algorithms have been devised that eliminate spurious correlations from a network, there are no guarantees that all of the inferred causations are indeed true. Hence, bringing a domain expert into the casual reasoning loop can be of great benefit in identifying erroneous casual relationships suggested by the discovery algorithm. To address this need we present the Visual Causal Analyst-a novel visual causal reasoning framework that allows users to apply their expertise, verify and edit causal links, and collaborate with the causal discovery algorithm to identify a valid causal network. Its interface consists of both an interactive 2D graph view and a numerical presentation of salient statistical parameters, such as regression coefficients, p-values, and others. Both help users in gaining a good understanding of the landscape of causal structures particularly when the number of variables is large. Our framework is also novel in that it can handle both numerical and categorical variables within one unified model and return plausible results. We demonstrate its use via a set of case studies using multiple practical datasets. PMID:26529703

  12. Temporal Information of Directed Causal Connectivity in Multi-Trial ERP Data using Partial Granger Causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssofzadeh, Vahab; Prasad, Girijesh; Naeem, Muhammad; Wong-Lin, KongFatt

    2016-01-01

    Partial Granger causality (PGC) has been applied to analyse causal functional neural connectivity after effectively mitigating confounding influences caused by endogenous latent variables and exogenous environmental inputs. However, it is not known how this connectivity obtained from PGC evolves over time. Furthermore, PGC has yet to be tested on realistic nonlinear neural circuit models and multi-trial event-related potentials (ERPs) data. In this work, we first applied a time-domain PGC technique to evaluate simulated neural circuit models, and demonstrated that the PGC measure is more accurate and robust in detecting connectivity patterns as compared to conditional Granger causality and partial directed coherence, especially when the circuit is intrinsically nonlinear. Moreover, the connectivity in PGC settles faster into a stable and correct configuration over time. After method verification, we applied PGC to reveal the causal connections of ERP trials of a mismatch negativity auditory oddball paradigm. The PGC analysis revealed a significant bilateral but asymmetrical localised activity in the temporal lobe close to the auditory cortex, and causal influences in the frontal, parietal and cingulate cortical areas, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the time to reach a stable connectivity configuration (~250–300 ms) coincides with the deviation of ensemble ERPs of oddball from standard tones. Finally, using a sliding time window, we showed higher resolution dynamics of causal connectivity within an ERP trial. In summary, time-domain PGC is promising in deciphering directed functional connectivity in nonlinear and ERP trials accurately, and at a sufficiently early stage. This data-driven approach can reduce computational time, and determine the key architecture for neural circuit modeling. PMID:26470866

  13. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important for...... generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate the...

  14. Ecological and cosmological coexistence thinking in a hypervariable environment: Causal models of economic success and failure among farmers, foragers, and fishermen of southwestern Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram eTucker

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A fact of life for farmers, hunter-gatherers, and fishermen in the rural parts of the world are that crops fail, wild resources become scarce, and winds discourage fishing. In this article we approach subsistence risk from the perspective of coexistence thinking, the simultaneous application of natural and supernatural causal models to explain subsistence success and failure. In southwestern Madagascar, the ecological world is characterized by extreme variability and unpredictability, and the cosmological world is characterized by anxiety about supernatural dangers. Ecological and cosmological causes seem to point to different risk minimizing strategies: to avoid losses from drought, flood, or heavy winds, one should diversify activities and be flexible; but to avoid losses caused by disrespected spirits one should narrow one's range of behaviors to follow the code of taboos and offerings. We address this paradox by investigating whether southwestern Malagasy understand natural and supernatural causes as occupying separate, contradictory explanatory systems (target dependence, whether they make no categorical distinction between natural and supernatural forces and combine them within a single explanatory system (synthetic thinking, or whether they have separate natural and supernatural categories of causes that are integrated into one explanatory system so that supernatural forces drive natural forces (integrative thinking. Results from three field studies suggest that (a informants explain why crops, prey, and market activities succeed or fail with reference to natural causal forces like rainfall and pests, (b they explain why individual persons experience success or failure primarily with supernatural factors like God and ancestors, and (c they understand supernatural forces as driving natural forces, so that ecology and cosmology represent distinct sets of causes within a single explanatory framework. We expect that future cross

  15. Ecological and cosmological coexistence thinking in a hypervariable environment: causal models of economic success and failure among farmers, foragers, and fishermen of southwestern Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Bram; Tsiazonera; Tombo, Jaovola; Hajasoa, Patricia; Nagnisaha, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    A fact of life for farmers, hunter-gatherers, and fishermen in the rural parts of the world are that crops fail, wild resources become scarce, and winds discourage fishing. In this article we approach subsistence risk from the perspective of "coexistence thinking," the simultaneous application of natural and supernatural causal models to explain subsistence success and failure. In southwestern Madagascar, the ecological world is characterized by extreme variability and unpredictability, and the cosmological world is characterized by anxiety about supernatural dangers. Ecological and cosmological causes seem to point to different risk minimizing strategies: to avoid losses from drought, flood, or heavy winds, one should diversify activities and be flexible; but to avoid losses caused by disrespected spirits one should narrow one's range of behaviors to follow the code of taboos and offerings. We address this paradox by investigating whether southwestern Malagasy understand natural and supernatural causes as occupying separate, contradictory explanatory systems (target dependence), whether they make no categorical distinction between natural and supernatural forces and combine them within a single explanatory system (synthetic thinking), or whether they have separate natural and supernatural categories of causes that are integrated into one explanatory system so that supernatural forces drive natural forces (integrative thinking). Results from three field studies suggest that (a) informants explain why crops, prey, and market activities succeed or fail with reference to natural causal forces like rainfall and pests, (b) they explain why individual persons experience success or failure primarily with supernatural factors like God and ancestors, and (c) they understand supernatural forces as driving natural forces, so that ecology and cosmology represent distinct sets of causes within a single explanatory framework. We expect that future cross-cultural analyses may

  16. Cohomology Methods in Causal Perturbation Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various problems in perturbation theory of (quantum) gauge models can be rephrased in the language of cohomology theory. This was already noticed in the functional formulation of perturbative gauge theories. Causal perturbation theory is a fully quantum approach: is works only with the chronological products which are defined as operator-valued distributions in the Fock space of the model. The use of causal perturbation theory leads to similar cohomology problems; the main difference with respect to the functional methods comes from the fact that the gauge transformation of the causal approach is, essentially, the linear part of the non-linear BRST transformation.Using these methods it is possible to give a nice determination of the interaction Lagrangians for gauge models (Yang-Mills and gravitation in the linear approximation); one obtains with this method the unicity of the interaction Lagrangian up to trivial terms. The case of quantum gravity is highly non-trivial and can be generalized with this method to the massive graviton case. Going to higher orders of perturbation theory one finds quantum anomalies. Again the cohomological methods can be used to determine the generic form of these anomalies. Finally, one can investigate the arbitrariness of the chronological products in higher orders and reduce this problem to cohomology methods also.

  17. When two become one: the limits of causality analysis of brain dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Chicharro

    Full Text Available Biological systems often consist of multiple interacting subsystems, the brain being a prominent example. To understand the functions of such systems it is important to analyze if and how the subsystems interact and to describe the effect of these interactions. In this work we investigate the extent to which the cause-and-effect framework is applicable to such interacting subsystems. We base our work on a standard notion of causal effects and define a new concept called natural causal effect. This new concept takes into account that when studying interactions in biological systems, one is often not interested in the effect of perturbations that alter the dynamics. The interest is instead in how the causal connections participate in the generation of the observed natural dynamics. We identify the constraints on the structure of the causal connections that determine the existence of natural causal effects. In particular, we show that the influence of the causal connections on the natural dynamics of the system often cannot be analyzed in terms of the causal effect of one subsystem on another. Only when the causing subsystem is autonomous with respect to the rest can this interpretation be made. We note that subsystems in the brain are often bidirectionally connected, which means that interactions rarely should be quantified in terms of cause-and-effect. We furthermore introduce a framework for how natural causal effects can be characterized when they exist. Our work also has important consequences for the interpretation of other approaches commonly applied to study causality in the brain. Specifically, we discuss how the notion of natural causal effects can be combined with Granger causality and Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. Our results are generic and the concept of natural causal effects is relevant in all areas where the effects of interactions between subsystems are of interest.

  18. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M; Heiser, Laura M; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K; Carlin, Daniel E; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O; Wong, Chris K; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W; Long, Byron L; Noren, David P; Bisberg, Alexander J; Mills, Gordon B; Gray, Joe W; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A; Fertig, Elana J; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M; Spellman, Paul T; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-04-01

    It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense. PMID:26901648

  19. Multiscale causal connectivity analysis by canonical correlation: theory and application to epileptic brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guo Rong; Chen, Fuyong; Kang, Dezhi; Zhang, Xiangyang; Marinazzo, Daniele; Chen, Huafu

    2011-11-01

    Multivariate Granger causality is a well-established approach for inferring information flow in complex systems, and it is being increasingly applied to map brain connectivity. Traditional Granger causality is based on vector autoregressive (AR) or mixed autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, which are potentially affected by errors in parameter estimation and may be contaminated by zero-lag correlation, notably when modeling neuroimaging data. To overcome this issue, we present here an extended canonical correlation approach to measure multivariate Granger causal interactions among time series. The procedure includes a reduced rank step for calculating canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and extends the definition of causality including instantaneous effects, thus avoiding the potential estimation problems of AR (or ARMA) models. We tested this approach on simulated data and confirmed its practical utility by exploring local network connectivity at different scales in the epileptic brain analyzing scalp and depth-EEG data during an interictal period. PMID:21788178

  20. Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Causal Mechanisms: Revisiting Evidence from Framing Experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Yamamoto, Teppei; Imai, Kosuke

    2013-01-01

    Social scientists are often interested in testing multiple causal mechanisms through which a treatment affects outcomes. A predominant approach has been to use linear structural equation models and examine the statistical significance of the corresponding path coefficients. However, this approach implicitly assumes that the multiple mechanisms are causally independent of one another. In this article, we consider a set of alternative assumptions that are sufficient to identify the average caus...

  1. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  2. Material Modelling - Composite Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lauge Fuglsang

    1997-01-01

    such as introduced by eigenstrain/stress actions like shrinkage, temperature, and alkali-aggregate reactions.Based on the overall positive results reported it is suggested that creep functions needed in Finite Element Analysis (FEM-analysis) of structures can be established from computer-simulated experiments based......, and internal stresses caused by drying shrinkage with experimental results reported in the literature on the mechanical behavior of mature concretes. It is then concluded that the model presented applied in general with respect to age at loading.From a stress analysis point of view the most important finding...

  3. Dynamic causal modelling of eye movements during pursuit: Confirming precision-encoding in V1 using MEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Rick A; Bauer, Markus; Pinotsis, Dimitris; Friston, Karl J

    2016-05-15

    This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories and the ERFs. The DCM for pursuit was based on predictive coding and active inference, and predicts subjects' eye movements based on their (subjective) Bayesian beliefs about target (and eye) motion. The precisions of these hierarchical beliefs can be inferred from behavioural (pursuit) data. The DCM for MEG data used an established biophysical model of neuronal activity that includes parameters for the gain of superficial pyramidal cells, which is thought to encode precision at the neuronal level. Previous studies (using DCM of pursuit data) suggest that noisy target motion increases subjective precision at the sensory level: i.e., subjects attend more to the target's sensory attributes. We compared (noisy motion-induced) changes in the synaptic gain based on the modelling of MEG data to changes in subjective precision estimated using the pursuit data. We demonstrate that imprecise target motion increases the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in V1 (across subjects). Furthermore, increases in sensory precision - inferred by our behavioural DCM - correlate with the increase in gain in V1, across subjects. This is a step towards a fully integrated model of brain computations, cortical responses and behaviour that may provide a useful clinical tool in conditions like schizophrenia. PMID:26921713

  4. Dynamic causal modelling of eye movements during pursuit: Confirming precision-encoding in V1 using MEG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Rick A.; Bauer, Markus; Pinotsis, Dimitris; Friston, Karl J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories and the ERFs. The DCM for pursuit was based on predictive coding and active inference, and predicts subjects' eye movements based on their (subjective) Bayesian beliefs about target (and eye) motion. The precisions of these hierarchical beliefs can be inferred from behavioural (pursuit) data. The DCM for MEG data used an established biophysical model of neuronal activity that includes parameters for the gain of superficial pyramidal cells, which is thought to encode precision at the neuronal level. Previous studies (using DCM of pursuit data) suggest that noisy target motion increases subjective precision at the sensory level: i.e., subjects attend more to the target's sensory attributes. We compared (noisy motion-induced) changes in the synaptic gain based on the modelling of MEG data to changes in subjective precision estimated using the pursuit data. We demonstrate that imprecise target motion increases the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in V1 (across subjects). Furthermore, increases in sensory precision – inferred by our behavioural DCM – correlate with the increase in gain in V1, across subjects. This is a step towards a fully integrated model of brain computations, cortical responses and behaviour that may provide a useful clinical tool in conditions like schizophrenia. PMID:26921713

  5. Causal Client Models in Selecting Effective Interventions: A Cognitive Mapping Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kwaadsteniet, Leontien; Hagmayer, York; Krol, Nicole P. C. M.; Witteman, Cilia L. M.

    2010-01-01

    An important reason to choose an intervention to treat psychological problems of clients is the expectation that the intervention will be effective in alleviating the problems. The authors investigated whether clinicians base their ratings of the effectiveness of interventions on models that they construct representing the factors causing and…

  6. Processing Speed, Intelligence, Creativity, and School Performance: Testing of Causal Hypotheses Using Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, H.; Neubauer, A. C.

    2004-01-01

    According to mental speed theory of intelligence, the speed of information processing constitutes an important basis for cognitive abilities. However, the question, how mental speed relates to real world criteria, like school, academic, or job performance, is still unanswered. The aim of the study is to test an indirect speed-factor model in…

  7. Explaining prosocial intentions : Testing causal relationships in the norm activation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steg, Linda; de Groot, Judith

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines factors influencing prosocial intentions. On the basis of the norm activation model (NAM), we propose that four variables influence prosocial intentions or behaviours: ( I) personal norms (PN), reflecting feelings of moral obligation to engage in prosocial behaviour, (2) awarenes

  8. Residential Segregation of Blacks and Racial Inequality in Southern Cities: Toward a Causal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roof, W. Clark

    This study explores how residential segregation can be thought of in terms of an economic competition theory of minority-group relations. The model proposed is considered applicable to the American South, and with some modification, relevant to other settings. The objectives are: (1) to show that residential segregation indices are related to…

  9. Measurement Context Effects in Telephone-Survey-Based Tests of Causal Models

    OpenAIRE

    Agarwal Sanjeev; Teas R. Kenneth

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to examine the issue of measurement context effects in survey-based tests of attitudinal and related models. The specific issue examined concerns the degree to which the measurement process affects the objects of measurement (i.e., various attitudinal and related concepts). Based upon the memory accessibility-diagnosticity theory specified by Feldman and Lynch (1988) and the concept of spreading activation (Tourangeau and Rasinski 1988; Anderson 1978, 1983; Col...

  10. Normalizability analysis of the generalized quantum electrodynamics from the causal point of view

    CERN Document Server

    Bufalo, R; Soto, D E

    2015-01-01

    The causal perturbation theory is an axiomatic perturbative theory of the S-matrix. This formalism has as its essence the following axioms: causality, Lorentz invariance and asymptotic conditions. Any other property must be showed via the inductive method order-by-order and, of course, it depends on the particular physical model. In this work we shall study the normalizability of the generalized quantum electrodynamics in the framework of the causal approach. Furthermore, we analyse the implication of the gauge invariance onto the model and obtain the respective Ward-Takahashi-Fradkin identities.

  11. Anterior Cingulate Cortico-Hippocampal Dysconnectivity in Unaffected Relatives of Schizophrenia Patients: A Stochastic Dynamic Causal Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Yi-Bin; Li, Chen; Cui, Long-Biao; Liu, Jian; Guo, Fan; Li, Liang; Liu, Ting-Ting; Liu, Kang; Chen, Gang; Xi, Min; Wang, Hua-Ning; Yin, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Familial risk plays a significant role in the etiology of schizophrenia (SZ). Many studies using neuroimaging have demonstrated structural and functional alterations in relatives of SZ patients, with significant results found in diverse brain regions involving the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), caudate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and hippocampus. This study investigated whether unaffected relatives of first episode SZ differ from healthy controls (HCs) in effective connectivity measures among these regions. Forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of first episode SZ patients-according to the DSM-IV-were studied. Fifty HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We used stochastic dynamic causal modeling (sDCM) to estimate the directed connections between the left ACC, right ACC, left caudate, right caudate, left DLPFC, left hippocampus, and right hippocampus. We used Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA) to characterize the differences. The BPA results showed hyperconnectivity from the left ACC to right hippocampus and hypoconnectivity from the right ACC to right hippocampus in SZ relatives compared to HCs. The pattern of anterior cingulate cortico-hippocampal connectivity in SZ relatives may be a familial feature of SZ risk, appearing to reflect familial susceptibility for SZ. PMID:27512370

  12. Radon levels in dwellings in chalk terrain. Development and analysis of distributional and causal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This thesis investigates the range, distribution and causes of high radon levels in dwellings in the Brighton area of Southeast England. Indoor radon levels were measured in more than 1000 homes. The results show that high radon levels can arise in an area previously considered to offer low radon potential from local geological sources. Climate and building-related factors were found to affect significantly the radon levels in dwellings. Multiple regression was used to determine the influence of the various factors on indoor radon levels and an empirical model develop to predict indoor radon levels. The radon hazard, independent of building-related effects, was determined for each surveyed location by adjusting the radon measurement to that expected on the ground floor of a 'model' dwelling. This standardised set of radon levels was entered into a geographical information system (GIS) and related to surface geology. The geometric mean radon level for each lithological unit was plotted to produce a radon hazard map for the area. The highest radon levels were found to be associated with the youngest Chalk Formations, particularly where they meet overlying Tertiary deposits, and with Clay-with-Flints Quaternary deposits in the area. The results were also converted to the radon activity equivalent to that expected from the NRPB's standard dual-detector dwelling survey method and analysed by lognormal modelling to estimate the proportion of dwellings likely to exceed the UK Action Level of 200 Bq/m3 for each lithological unit. The likely percentages of dwellings affected by radon thus obtained were mapped to lithological boundaries to produce a radon potential map. The radon hazard map and the empirical radon model facilitate the prediction of radon levels in dwellings of comparable construction and above similar geology and should further the understanding of the behaviour of radon gas in buildings to allow indoor radon concentrations to be controlled. The radon

  13. Clinic-like animal model for causal-pathogenetical investigations of hypoxic-ischemic brain injuries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The complex nature of the pathogenesis in hypoxic-ischemic brain injuries equires the combined determination of the dynamics of main factors in these disturbing processes. The application of suitable methods for registration of such pathogenetic processes is shown in an adequate animal model for simulating the early hypoxic-ischemic brain injuries. That the radioactive labelled microsphere technique is suitable to comprehend quantitively the dynamics of the intracerebral redistribution of the circulating blood due to hypoxia/hypercapnia by simultaneous-multiple measuring of the regional cerebral blood flow. Therefore, at the first time an inadequate hypoxic-induced blood flow increase was shown in large parts of the forebrain in intrauterine growth retarded newborn piglets. For estimation of the regional cerebral glucose utilization in newborn piglets, the 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography is introduced. The measurements were carried out on a stationary high-density avalanche chamber (HIDAC) camera and yielded the fundamental application of this camera model for PET investigations also in the newborn brain due to the very good spatial resolution. (orig.)

  14. Self-Belief Does Make A Difference: A Reciprocal Effects Model of the Causal Ordering of Physical Self-concept and Gymnastics Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, Herbert,; Chanal, Julien; Sarrazin, Philippe

    2006-01-01

    International audience A large body of research in support of the reciprocal effects model of causal ordering demonstrates that prior academic self-concept predicts subsequent academic achievement beyond what can be explained in terms of prior achievement. Here we evaluate the generalizability of this support for the reciprocal effects model to a physical activity context in which achievement is reflected in gymnastics skills on a standardized gymnastics performance test evaluated by exper...

  15. The Equation of Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Do Minh

    1999-01-01

    We research the natural causality of the Universe. We find that the equation of causality provides very good results on physics. That is our first endeavour and success in describing a quantitative expression of the law of causality. Hence, our theoretical point suggests ideas to build other laws including the law of the Universe's evolution.

  16. The continuum limit of causal fermion systems from Planck scale structures to macroscopic physics

    CERN Document Server

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries". The dynamics is described by a novel variational principle, called the causal action principle. In addition to the basics, the book provides all the necessary mathematical background and explains how the causal action principle gives rise to the interactions of the standard model plus gravity on the level of second-quantized fermionic fields coupled to classical bosonic fields. The focus is on getting a mathematically sound connection between causal fermion systems and physical systems in Minkowski space. The book is intended for graduate students e...

  17. Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

  18. The enhanced information flow from visual cortex to frontal area facilitates SSVEP response: evidence from model-driven and data-driven causality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fali; Tian, Yin; Zhang, Yangsong; Qiu, Kan; Tian, Chunyang; Jing, Wei; Liu, Tiejun; Xia, Yang; Guo, Daqing; Yao, Dezhong; Xu, Peng

    2015-10-01

    The neural mechanism of steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) is still not clearly understood. Especially, only certain frequency stimuli can evoke SSVEP. Our previous network study reveals that 8 Hz stimulus that can evoke strong SSVEP response shows the enhanced linkage strength between frontal and visual cortex. To further probe the directed information flow between the two cortex areas for various frequency stimuli, this paper develops a causality analysis based on the inversion of double columns model using particle swarm optimization (PSO) to characterize the directed information flow between visual and frontal cortices with the intracranial rat electroencephalograph (EEG). The estimated model parameters demonstrate that the 8 Hz stimulus shows the enhanced directional information flow from visual cortex to frontal lobe facilitates SSVEP response, which may account for the strong SSVEP response for 8 Hz stimulus. Furthermore, the similar finding is replicated by data-driven causality analysis. The inversion of neural mass model proposed in this study may be helpful to provide the new causality analysis to link the physiological model and the observed datasets in neuroscience and clinical researches.

  19. Do debit cards decrease cash demand? Evidence from a causal analysis using Principal Stratification

    OpenAIRE

    Mercatanti, Andrea; Li, Fan

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that innovation in transaction technology may modify the cash holding behaviour of agents, as debit card holders may either withdraw cash from ATMs or purchase items using POS devices at retailers. In this paper, within the Rubin Causal Model, we investigate the causal effects of the use of debit cards on the cash inventories held by households using data from the Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). We adopt the principal stratification approach to incorpora...

  20. Granger causality in wall-bounded turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granger causality is based on the idea that if a variable helps to predict another one, then they are probably involved in a causality relationship. This technique is based on the identification of a predictive model for causality detection. The aim of this paper is to use Granger causality to study the dynamics and the energy redistribution between scales and components in wall-bounded turbulent flows. In order to apply it on flows, Granger causality is generalized for snapshot-based observations of large size using linear-model identification methods coming from model reduction. Optimized DMD, a variant of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition, is considered for building a linear model based on snapshots. This method is used to link physical events and extract physical mechanisms associated to the bursting process in the logarithmic layer of a turbulent channel flow.

  1. Model Construct Based Enterprise Model Architecture and Its Modeling Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In order to support enterprise integration, a kind of model construct based enterprise model architecture and its modeling approach are studied in this paper. First, the structural makeup and internal relationships of enterprise model architecture are discussed. Then, the concept of reusable model construct (MC) which belongs to the control view and can help to derive other views is proposed. The modeling approach based on model construct consists of three steps, reference model architecture synthesis, enterprise model customization, system design and implementation. According to MC based modeling approach a case study with the background of one-kind-product machinery manufacturing enterprises is illustrated. It is shown that proposal model construct based enterprise model architecture and modeling approach are practical and efficient.

  2. Sensitivity analyses for parametric causal mediation effect estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Jeffrey M; Wang, Wei

    2015-04-01

    Causal mediation analysis uses a potential outcomes framework to estimate the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome and its indirect effect through an intermediate variable (or mediator). Causal interpretations of these effects typically rely on sequential ignorability. Because this assumption is not empirically testable, it is important to conduct sensitivity analyses. Sensitivity analyses so far offered for this situation have either focused on the case where the outcome follows a linear model or involve nonparametric or semiparametric models. We propose alternative approaches that are suitable for responses following generalized linear models. The first approach uses a Gaussian copula model involving latent versions of the mediator and the final outcome. The second approach uses a so-called hybrid causal-observational model that extends the association model for the final outcome, providing a novel sensitivity parameter. These models, while still assuming a randomized exposure, allow for unobserved (as well as observed) mediator-outcome confounders that are not affected by exposure. The methods are applied to data from a study of the effect of mother education on dental caries in adolescence. PMID:25395683

  3. The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe

    OpenAIRE

    Muyambiri, Brian; Chiwira, Oscar; Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Chiranga, Ngonidzashe

    2010-01-01

    The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1970 to 2007. Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration approach and VEC model are em...

  4. 法律知识的因果表达和非单调推理模型%Causal Knowledge Representation and Nonmonotonic Reasoning Models in Law Consultant Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    干红华; 潘云鹤

    2001-01-01

    Causal reasoning is the most important feature in law consultant systems. This paper analy-ses the structure of law clauses,proposes a representation model for law knowledge in terms of causal relationships and nonmonotonic reasoning models based on it. These models are successfully applied in the implementation of NBU-CALA+ ,a law expert consultant system for case analysis and interpreta-tion.

  5. Causal processes and propensities in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio SUÁREZ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available I offer an alternative interpretation of Van Fraassen's influential arguments against causal realism in quantum mechanics. These arguments provide in fact a good guide to the different causal models available for the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations, which in turn shed light on the nature of quantum propensities.

  6. Causal random geometry from stochastic quantization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambjørn, Jan; Loll, R.; Westra, W.; Zohren, S.

    2010-01-01

     in this short note we review a recently found formulation of two-dimensional causal quantum gravity defined through Causal Dynamical Triangulations and stochastic quantization. This procedure enables one to extract the nonperturbative quantum Hamiltonian of the random surface model including the...

  7. Times and Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Davidson, Russell

    2013-01-01

    The understanding of causal chains and mechanisms is an essential part of any scientific activity that aims at better explanation of its subject matter, and better understanding of it. While any account of causality requires that a cause should precede its effect, accounts of causality inphysics are complicated by the fact that the role of time in current theoretical physics has evolved very substantially throughout the twentieth century. In this article, I review the status of time and causa...

  8. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours to......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the...

  9. Causality and Nonlocality as Axioms for Quantum Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, Sandu; Rohrlich, Daniel

    1997-01-01

    Quantum mechanics permits nonlocality - both nonlocal correlations and nonlocal equations of motion - while respecting relativistic causality. Is quantum mechanics the unique theory that reconciles nonlocality and causality? We consider two models, going beyond quantum mechanics, of nonlocality: "superquantum" correlations, and nonlocal "jamming" of correlations. These models are consistent with some definitions of nonlocality and causality.

  10. A closed-loop causal model of workload based on a comparison of fuzzy and crisp measurements techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moray, Neville; King, Barbara; Turksen, Burhan; Waterton, Keith

    1987-01-01

    Fuzzy and crisp measurements of workload are compared for a tracking task that varied in bandwidth and order of control. Fuzzy measures are as powerful as crisp measures, and can under certain conditions give extra insights into workload causality. Both methods suggest that workload arises in a system in which effort, performance, difficulty, and task variables are linked in a closed loop. Marked individual differences were found. Future work on the fuzzy measurement of workload is justified.

  11. Analysis of Causal Relationships by Structural Equation Modeling to Determine the Factors Influencing Cognitive Function in Elderly People in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Kimura, Daisuke; Nakatani, Ken; Takeda, Tokunori; Fujita, Takashi; Sunahara, Nobuyuki; Inoue, Katsumi; Notoya, Masako

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify a potentiality factor that is a preventive factor for decline in cognitive function. Additionally, this study pursues to clarify the causal relationship between the each potential factor and its influence on cognitive function. Subjects were 366 elderly community residents (mean age 73.7 ± 6.4, male 51, female 315) who participated in the Taketoyo Project from 2007 to 2011. Factor analysis was conducted to identify groupings within mental, social, life...

  12. Causal Behaviour on Carter spacetime

    CERN Document Server

    Blanco, Oihane F

    2015-01-01

    In this work we will focus on the causal character of Carter Spacetime (see B. Carter, Causal structure in space-time, Gen. Rel. Grav. 1 4 337-406, 1971). The importance of this spacetime is the following: for the causally best well behaved spacetimes (the globally hyperbolic ones), there are several characterizations or alternative definitions. In some cases, it has been shown that some of the causal properties required in these characterizations can be weakened. But Carter spacetime provides a counterexample for an impossible relaxation in one of them. We studied the possibility of Carter spacetime to be a counterexample for impossible lessening in another characterization, based on the previous results. In particular, we will prove that the time-separation or Lorentzian distance between two chosen points in Carter spacetime is infinite. Although this spacetime turned out not to be the counterexample we were looking for, the found result is interesting per se and provides ideas for alternate approaches to t...

  13. The Causal Effects of Father Absence

    OpenAIRE

    McLanahan, Sara; TACH, LAURA; Schneider, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The literature on father absence is frequently criticized for its use of cross-sectional data and methods that fail to take account of possible omitted variable bias and reverse causality. We review studies that have responded to this critique by employing a variety of innovative research designs to identify the causal effect of father absence, including studies using lagged dependent variable models, growth curve models, individual fixed effects models, sibling fixed effects models, natural ...

  14. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athey, Susan; Imbens, Guido

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we propose methods for estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental and observational studies and for conducting hypothesis tests about the magnitude of differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. We provide a data-driven approach to partition the data into subpopulations that differ in the magnitude of their treatment effects. The approach enables the construction of valid confidence intervals for treatment effects, even with many covariates relative to the sample size, and without "sparsity" assumptions. We propose an "honest" approach to estimation, whereby one sample is used to construct the partition and another to estimate treatment effects for each subpopulation. Our approach builds on regression tree methods, modified to optimize for goodness of fit in treatment effects and to account for honest estimation. Our model selection criterion anticipates that bias will be eliminated by honest estimation and also accounts for the effect of making additional splits on the variance of treatment effect estimates within each subpopulation. We address the challenge that the "ground truth" for a causal effect is not observed for any individual unit, so that standard approaches to cross-validation must be modified. Through a simulation study, we show that for our preferred method honest estimation results in nominal coverage for 90% confidence intervals, whereas coverage ranges between 74% and 84% for nonhonest approaches. Honest estimation requires estimating the model with a smaller sample size; the cost in terms of mean squared error of treatment effects for our preferred method ranges between 7-22%. PMID:27382149

  15. Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to determine the direction causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries. The empirical model that includes capital and labor force as the control variables is estimated for the panel of fourteen OECD countries during the period 1980-2007. Apart from the previous studies in the nuclear energy consumption and economic growth relationship, this study utilizes the novel panel causality approach, which allows both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The findings show that there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in eleven out of fourteen cases, supporting the neutrality hypothesis. As a sensitivity analysis, we also conduct Toda-Yamamoto time series causality method and find out that the results from the panel causality analysis are slightly different than those from the time-series causality analysis. Thereby, we can conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analyzing the nature of causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth may play a key role for policy implications. - Highlights: → Causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is examined for OECD countries. → Panel causality method, which allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity, is utilized. → The neutrality hypothesis is supported.

  16. Causality problem in Economic Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOSÉ LUIS RETOLAZA

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The main point of the paper is the problem of the economy to be consider like a science in the most strict term of the concept. In the first step we are going to tackle a presentation about what we understand by science to subsequently present some of the fallacies which have bring certain scepticism about the scientific character of the investigation in economy, to know: 1 The differences between hard and weak sciences -physics and social; 2 The differences between paradigm, —positivist and phenomenological— 3 The differences between physic causalityand historic causality. In the second step we are going to talk about two fundamental problems which are questioned: 1 the confusion between ontology and gnoseology and, 2 the erroneous concept of causality that commonly is used. In the last step of the paper we are going over the recent models of «causal explanation» and we suggest the probabilistic casualty development next with a more elaborated models of causal explanation, like a way to conjugate the scientific severity with the possibility to tackle complex economic realities.

  17. Viscous causal cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author)

  18. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  19. Multiple Model Approaches to Modelling and Control,

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    learning. The underlying question is `How should we partition the system - what is `local'?'. This book presents alternative ways of bringing submodels together,which lead to varying levels of performance and insight. Some are further developed for autonomous learning of parameters from data, while others...... into multiple smaller operating regimes each of which is associated a locally valid model orcontroller. This can often give a simplified and transparent nonlinear model or control representation. In addition, the local approach has computationaladvantages, it lends itself to adaptation and learning...

  20. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  1. Integration of disease association and eQTL data using a Bayesian colocalisation approach highlights six candidate causal genes in immune-mediated diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hui; Fortune, Mary D; Burren, Oliver S; Schofield, Ellen; Todd, John A; Wallace, Chris

    2015-06-15

    The genes and cells that mediate genetic associations identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are only partially understood. Several studies that have investigated the genetic regulation of gene expression have shown that disease-associated variants are over-represented amongst expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) variants. Evidence for colocalisation of eQTL and disease causal variants can suggest causal genes and cells for these genetic associations. Here, we used colocalisation analysis to investigate whether 595 genetic associations to ten immune-mediated diseases are consistent with a causal variant that regulates, in cis, gene expression in resting B cells, and in resting and stimulated monocytes. Previously published candidate causal genes were over-represented amongst genes exhibiting colocalisation (odds ratio > 1.5), and we identified evidence for colocalisation (posterior odds > 5) between cis eQTLs in at least one cell type and at least one disease for six genes: ADAM15, RGS1, CARD9, LTBR, CTSH and SYNGR1. We identified cell-specific effects, such as for CTSH, the expression of which in monocytes, but not in B cells, may mediate type 1 diabetes and narcolepsy associations in the chromosome 15q25.1 region. Our results demonstrate the utility of integrating genetic studies of disease and gene expression for highlighting causal genes and cell types. PMID:25743184

  2. Causality in physiological signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Andreas; Kraemer, Jan F; Penzel, Thomas; Bonnemeier, Hendrik; Kurths, Jürgen; Wessel, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Health is one of the most important non-material assets and thus also has an enormous influence on material values, since treating and preventing diseases is expensive. The number one cause of death worldwide today originates in cardiovascular diseases. For these reasons the aim of understanding the functions and the interactions of the cardiovascular system is and has been a major research topic throughout various disciplines for more than a hundred years. The purpose of most of today's research is to get as much information as possible with the lowest possible effort and the least discomfort for the subject or patient, e.g. via non-invasive measurements. A family of tools whose importance has been growing during the last years is known under the headline of coupling measures. The rationale for this kind of analysis is to identify the structure of interactions in a system of multiple components. Important information lies for example in the coupling direction, the coupling strength, and occurring time lags. In this work, we will, after a brief general introduction covering the development of cardiovascular time series analysis, introduce, explain and review some of the most important coupling measures and classify them according to their origin and capabilities in the light of physiological analyses. We will begin with classical correlation measures, go via Granger-causality-based tools, entropy-based techniques (e.g. momentary information transfer), nonlinear prediction measures (e.g. mutual prediction) to symbolic dynamics (e.g. symbolic coupling traces). All these methods have contributed important insights into physiological interactions like cardiorespiratory coupling, neuro-cardio-coupling and many more. Furthermore, we will cover tools to detect and analyze synchronization and coordination (e.g. synchrogram and coordigram). As a last point we will address time dependent couplings as identified using a recent approach employing ensembles of time series. The

  3. HEDR modeling approach: Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a revision of the previous Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project modeling approach report. This revised report describes the methods used in performing scoping studies and estimating final radiation doses to real and representative individuals who lived in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. The scoping studies and dose estimates pertain to various environmental pathways during various periods of time. The original report discussed the concepts under consideration in 1991. The methods for estimating dose have been refined as understanding of existing data, the scope of pathways, and the magnitudes of dose estimates were evaluated through scoping studies

  4. Quantifying information transfer and mediation along causal pathways in complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Jakob

    2015-12-01

    Measures of information transfer have become a popular approach to analyze interactions in complex systems such as the Earth or the human brain from measured time series. Recent work has focused on causal definitions of information transfer aimed at decompositions of predictive information about a target variable, while excluding effects of common drivers and indirect influences. While common drivers clearly constitute a spurious causality, the aim of the present article is to develop measures quantifying different notions of the strength of information transfer along indirect causal paths, based on first reconstructing the multivariate causal network. Another class of novel measures quantifies to what extent different intermediate processes on causal paths contribute to an interaction mechanism to determine pathways of causal information transfer. The proposed framework complements predictive decomposition schemes by focusing more on the interaction mechanism between multiple processes. A rigorous mathematical framework allows for a clear information-theoretic interpretation that can also be related to the underlying dynamics as proven for certain classes of processes. Generally, however, estimates of information transfer remain hard to interpret for nonlinearly intertwined complex systems. But if experiments or mathematical models are not available, then measuring pathways of information transfer within the causal dependency structure allows at least for an abstraction of the dynamics. The measures are illustrated on a climatological example to disentangle pathways of atmospheric flow over Europe.

  5. Trimmed Granger causality between two groups of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Ying-Chao; Tseng, Neng-Fang; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2014-01-01

    The identification of causal effects between two groups of time series has been an important topic in a wide range of applications such as economics, engineering, medicine, neuroscience, and biology. In this paper, a simplified causal relationship (called trimmed Granger causality) based on the context of Granger causality and vector autoregressive (VAR) model is introduced. The idea is to characterize a subset of “important variables” for both groups of time series so that the underlying cau...

  6. Identifying causal variants at loci with multiple signals of association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

    2014-10-01

    Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20-50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. PMID:25104515

  7. The role of causal maps in intellectual capital measurement and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montemari, Marco; Nielsen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the measurement and the management of the dynamic aspects of intellectual capital through the use of causal mapping. Design/methodology/approach – The study details the methods utilized in a single in-depth case study of a network-based business...... model Findings – This paper illustrates how causal mapping can be used to understand how intellectual capital really works in the specific business context in which it is deployed. Moreover, exploiting the causal map as a platform for detracting a set of indicators can provide information on the length...... of the lag and the persistence of the effects of managerial actions. In addition, it can signal when and how to refine and update the causal map. The combination of these factors supports the dynamic measurement and management of intellectual capital. Research limitations/implications – The paper...

  8. Internal modeling of upcoming speech: A causal role of the right posterior cerebellum in non-motor aspects of language production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnqvist, Elin; Bonnard, Mireille; Gauvin, Hanna S; Attarian, Shahram; Trébuchon, Agnès; Hartsuiker, Robert J; Alario, F-Xavier

    2016-08-01

    Some language processing theories propose that, just as for other somatic actions, self-monitoring of language production is achieved through internal modeling. The cerebellum is the proposed center of such internal modeling in motor control, and the right cerebellum has been linked to an increasing number of language functions, including predictive processing during comprehension. Relating these findings, we tested whether the right posterior cerebellum has a causal role for self-monitoring of speech errors. Participants received 1 Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation during 15 min to lobules Crus I and II in the right hemisphere, and, in counterbalanced orders, to the contralateral area in the left cerebellar hemisphere (control) in order to induce a temporary inactivation of one of these zones. Immediately afterwards, they engaged in a speech production task priming the production of speech errors. Language production was impaired after right compared to left hemisphere stimulation, a finding that provides evidence for a causal role of the cerebellum during language production. We interpreted this role in terms of internal modeling of upcoming speech through a verbal working memory process used to prevent errors. PMID:27249802

  9. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    OpenAIRE

    York eHagmayer; Neele eEngelmann

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic...

  10. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    OpenAIRE

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic lite...

  11. Dynamics and causality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

  12. Dynamics and causality constraints

    CERN Document Server

    De Souza, M M

    2000-01-01

    The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Local causality are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equations, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away and implies on deep implications to the nature of physical interactions.

  13. Quantum Causal Graph Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Consider a graph having quantum systems lying at each node. Suppose that the whole thing evolves in discrete time steps, according to a global, unitary causal operator. By causal we mean that information can only propagate at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. Suppose, moreover, that the graph itself is subject to the evolution, and may be driven to be in a quantum superposition of graphs---in accordance to the superposition principle. We show that these unitary causal operators must decompose as a finite-depth circuit of local unitary gates. This unifies a result on Quantum Cellular Automata with another on Reversible Causal Graph Dynamics. Along the way we formalize a notion of causality which is valid in the context of quantum superpositions of time-varying graphs, and has a number of good properties. Keywords: Quantum Lattice Gas Automata, Block-representation, Curtis-Hedlund-Lyndon, No-signalling, Localizability, Quantum Gravity, Quantum Graphity, Causal Dynamical Triangula...

  14. Causal Inference and Causal Explanation with Background Knowledge

    OpenAIRE

    Meek, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents correct algorithms for answering the following two questions; (i) Does there exist a causal explanation consistent with a set of background knowledge which explains all of the observed independence facts in a sample? (ii) Given that there is such a causal explanation what are the causal relationships common to every such causal explanation?

  15. Causal Modeling of Cancer-Stromal Communication Identifies PAPPA as a Novel Stroma-Secreted Factor Activating NFκB Signaling in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia C Engelmann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Inter-cellular communication with stromal cells is vital for cancer cells. Molecules involved in the communication are potential drug targets. To identify them systematically, we applied a systems level analysis that combined reverse network engineering with causal effect estimation. Using only observational transcriptome profiles we searched for paracrine factors sending messages from activated hepatic stellate cells (HSC to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC cells. We condensed these messages to predict ten proteins that, acting in concert, cause the majority of the gene expression changes observed in HCC cells. Among the 10 paracrine factors were both known and unknown cancer promoting stromal factors, the former including Placental Growth Factor (PGF and Periostin (POSTN, while Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein A (PAPPA was among the latter. Further support for the predicted effect of PAPPA on HCC cells came from both in vitro studies that showed PAPPA to contribute to the activation of NFκB signaling, and clinical data, which linked higher expression levels of PAPPA to advanced stage HCC. In summary, this study demonstrates the potential of causal modeling in combination with a condensation step borrowed from gene set analysis [Model-based Gene Set Analysis (MGSA] in the identification of stromal signaling molecules influencing the cancer phenotype.

  16. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M.; Heiser, Laura M.; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K.; Carlin, Daniel E.; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O.; Wong, Chris K.; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V.; Favorov, Alexander V.; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W.; Long, Byron L.; Noren, David P.; Bisberg, Alexander J.; Mills, Gordon B.; Gray, Joe W.; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A.; Fertig, Elana J.; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M.; Spellman, Paul T.; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-01-01

    Inferring molecular networks is a central challenge in computational biology. However, it has remained unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships can be effectively inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge that focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results constitute the most comprehensive assessment of causal network inference in a mammalian setting carried out to date and suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess the causal validity of inferred molecular networks. PMID:26901648

  17. Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A.

    2016-02-01

    Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes.

  18. Causality and the semantics of provenance

    CERN Document Server

    Cheney, James

    2010-01-01

    Provenance, or information about the sources, derivation, custody or history of data, has been studied recently in a number of contexts, including databases, scientific workflows and the Semantic Web. Many provenance mechanisms have been developed, motivated by informal notions such as influence, dependence, explanation and causality. However, there has been little study of whether these mechanisms formally satisfy appropriate policies or even how to formalize relevant motivating concepts such as causality. We contend that mathematical models of these concepts are needed to justify and compare provenance techniques. In this paper we review a theory of causality based on structural models that has been developed in artificial intelligence, and describe work in progress on a causal semantics for provenance graphs.

  19. Causality and the Semantics of Provenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Cheney

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Provenance, or information about the sources, derivation, custody or history of data, has been studied recently in a number of contexts, including databases, scientific workflows and the Semantic Web. Many provenance mechanisms have been developed, motivated by informal notions such as influence, dependence, explanation and causality. However, there has been little study of whether these mechanisms formally satisfy appropriate policies or even how to formalize relevant motivating concepts such as causality. We contend that mathematical models of these concepts are needed to justify and compare provenance techniques. In this paper we review a theory of causality based on structural models that has been developed in artificial intelligence, and describe work in progress on using causality to give a semantics to provenance graphs.

  20. Causality and the Semantics of Provenance

    CERN Document Server

    Cheney, James

    2010-01-01

    Provenance, or information about the sources, derivation, custody or history of data, has been studied recently in a number of contexts, including databases, scientific workflows and the Semantic Web. Many provenance mechanisms have been developed, motivated by informal notions such as influence, dependence, explanation and causality. However, there has been little study of whether these mechanisms formally satisfy appropriate policies or even how to formalize relevant motivating concepts such as causality. We contend that mathematical models of these concepts are needed to justify and compare provenance techniques. In this paper we review a theory of causality based on structural models that has been developed in artificial intelligence, and describe work in progress on using causality to give a semantics to provenance graphs.

  1. Breaking the arrows of causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valsiner, Jaan

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical models of catalysis have proven to bring with them major breakthroughs in chemistry and biology, from the 1830s onward. It can be argued that the scientific status of chemistry has become established through the move from causal to catalytic models. Likewise, the central explanatory...... role of cyclical models in biology has made it possible to move from the idea of genetic determination to that of epigenetic negotiation as the core of biological theory. In psychology, catalytic thinking has been outside of the realm of accepted scientific schemes, as the axiomatic dependence upon the...

  2. Exposure to traffic-related air pollution during pregnancy and term low birth weight: estimation of causal associations in a semiparametric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Amy M; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B

    2012-11-01

    Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000-2006. The probability of low birth weight among full-term infants in the population was estimated using machine learning and targeted maximum likelihood estimation for each quartile of traffic exposure during pregnancy. If everyone lived near high-volume freeways (approximated as the fourth quartile of traffic density), the estimated probability of term low birth weight would be 2.27% (95% confidence interval: 2.16, 2.38) as compared with 2.02% (95% confidence interval: 1.90, 2.12) if everyone lived near smaller local roads (first quartile of traffic density). Assessment of potentially causal associations, in the absence of arbitrary model assumptions applied to the data, should result in relatively unbiased estimates. The current results support findings from previous studies that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution may adversely affect birth weight among full-term infants. PMID:23045474

  3. Causality and the Doppler Peaks

    OpenAIRE

    Turok, Neil

    1996-01-01

    Could cosmic structure have formed by the action of causal physics within the standard hot big bang, or was a prior period of inflation required? Recently there has been some discussion of whether causal sources could reproduce the pattern of Doppler peaks of the standard scale-invariant adiabatic theory. This paper gives a rigorous definition of causality, and a causal decomposition of a general source. I present an example of a simple causal source which mimics the standard adiabatic theory...

  4. Biased causal inseparable game

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, Some Sankar

    2015-01-01

    Here we study the \\emph{causal inseparable} game introduced in [\\href{http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v3/n10/full/ncomms2076.html}{Nat. Commun. {\\bf3}, 1092 (2012)}], but it's biased version. Two separated parties, Alice and Bob, generate biased bits (say input bit) in their respective local laboratories. Bob generates another biased bit (say decision bit) which determines their goal: whether Alice has to guess Bob's bit or vice-verse. Under the assumption that events are ordered with respect to some global causal relation, we show that the success probability of this biased causal game is upper bounded, giving rise to \\emph{biased causal inequality} (BCI). In the \\emph{process matrix} formalism, which is locally in agreement with quantum physics but assume no global causal order, we show that there exist \\emph{inseparable} process matrices that violate the BCI for arbitrary bias in the decision bit. In such scenario we also derive the maximal violation of the BCI under local operations involving tracele...

  5. Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

    2007-02-01

    Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach. PMID:18453457

  6. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  7. 人因可靠性分析中的概率因果模型%Probabilistic causal model of human reliability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高文宇; 张力

    2011-01-01

    根据人因失误的机理和特点提出了一个分层的人因可靠性概率因果模型,采用贝叶斯网建立了人因可靠性影响因素之间的因果关系.采用分层方法进行建模,充分利用了条件独立性以降低模型的复杂度,同时分层机制也符合人因可靠性的内在要求.该模型既能满足回溯型分析需求又能满足预测型分析需求.在模型的定量化方面,设计了一个简化可行的模型参数计算方法.该模型可以用于工程化的人因可靠性分析,也可扩展为人因行为理论研究模型.%A proper causal model of human reliability analysis helps to account for human response behavior and lead to a more effective quantitative analysis. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical causal model of human reliability in accordance with the underlying reasons of human errors, with Bayesian network being used to build the causal link of all the different factors. And, then, with the hierarchical structure adopted in the model, the factors in each level would be only affected by the factors belonging to the upper levels. In addition, since the hierarchical structure may contribute more to a clear and simplified relationship between the behavior influence factors. Specifically speaking, human reliability is supposed to be affected by some inherent factors, though such inherent factors may also be affected by some external factors. However, the external factors of different groups may prove to be independent of each other. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the computational load greatly. In the above model we have initiated, human inherent factors may include confidence and responsibility, knowledge and experience, psychological stress and working load, fatigue and so on. While confidence and responsibility are usually influenced by such external factors as safety culture, organizational management, and team collaboration, knowledge and experience may be influenced by each one' s

  8. Causal graph dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    We generalize the theory of Cellular Automata to arbitrary, time-varying graphs. In other words we formalize, and prove theorems about, the intuitive idea of a labelled graph which evolves in time - but under the natural constraint that information can only ever be transmitted at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. The notion of translation-invariance is also generalized. The definition we provide for these `causal graph dynamics' is simple and axiomatic. The theorems we provide also show that it is robust. For instance, causal graph dynamics are stable under composition and under restriction to radius one. In the finite case some fundamental facts of Cellular Automata theory carry through: causal graph dynamics admit a characterization as continuous functions and they are stable under inversion. The provided examples suggest a wide range of applications of this mathematical object, from complex systems science to theoretical physics. Keywords: Dynamical networks, Boolean network...

  9. Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Yuan, E-mail: ywang@nju.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang Yichen; Zhou Jing; Zhu Xiaodong; Lu Genfa [State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China)

    2011-07-15

    This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in China during the period from 1972 to 2006, using a multivariate cointegration approach. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo-classical aggregate production theory. Using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, a long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables: energy consumption, capital and employment. Empirical results reveal that the long-run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in China is approximately 0.15, through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and that for the short-run is approximately 0.12 by the error correction model. The study also indicates the existence of short-run and long-run causality running from energy consumption, capital and employment to economic growth. The estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth, thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for China. - Highlights: > Cointegration is only present when real GDP is the dependent variable. >The long-run causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. >China is an energy dependent economy.

  10. A Causal Entropy Bound

    CERN Document Server

    Brustein, Ram

    2000-01-01

    The identification of a causal-connection scale motivates us to propose a new covariant bound on entropy within a generic space-like region. This "causal entropy bound", scaling as the square root of EV, and thus lying around the geometric mean of Bekenstein's S/ER and holographic S/A bounds, is checked in various "critical" situations. In the case of limited gravity, Bekenstein's bound is the strongest while naive holography is the weakest. In the case of strong gravity, our bound and Bousso's holographic bound are stronger than Bekenstein's, while naive holography is too tight, and hence typically wrong.

  11. A Causal Entropy Bound

    OpenAIRE

    Brustein, R; Veneziano, G

    1999-01-01

    The identification of a causal-connection scale motivates us to propose a new covariant bound on entropy within a generic space-like region. This "causal entropy bound", scaling as the square root of EV, and thus lying around the geometric mean of Bekenstein's S/ER and holographic S/A bounds, is checked in various "critical" situations. In the case of limited gravity, Bekenstein's bound is the strongest while naive holography is the weakest. In the case of strong gravity, our bound and Bousso...

  12. Uncertainty, causality and decision: The case of social risks and nuclear risk in particular

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probability and causality are two indispensable tools for addressing situations of social risk. Causal relations are the foundation for building risk assessment models and identifying risk prevention, mitigation and compensation measures. Probability enables us to quantify risk assessments and to calibrate intervention measures. It therefore seems not only natural, but also necessary to make the role of causality and probability explicit in the definition of decision problems in situations of social risk. Such is the aim of this thesis.By reviewing the terminology of risk and the logic of public interventions in various fields of social risk, we gain a better understanding of the notion and of the issues that one faces when trying to model it. We further elaborate our analysis in the case of nuclear safety, examining in detail how methods and policies have been developed in this field and how they have evolved through time. This leads to a number of observations concerning risk and safety assessments.Generalising the concept of intervention in a Bayesian network allows us to develop a variety of causal Bayesian networks adapted to our needs. In this framework, we propose a definition of risk which seems to be relevant for a broad range of issues. We then offer simple applications of our model to specific aspects of the Fukushima accident and other nuclear safety problems. In addition to specific lessons, the analysis leads to the conclusion that a systematic approach for identifying uncertainties is needed in this area. When applied to decision theory, our tool evolves into a dynamic decision model in which acts cause consequences and are causally interconnected. The model provides a causal interpretation of Savage's conceptual framework, solves some of its paradoxes and clarifies certain aspects. It leads us to considering uncertainty with regard to a problem's causal structure as the source of ambiguity in decision-making, an interpretation which corresponds to a

  13. Inferring causal relationships between reproductive and metabolic health disorders and production traits in first-lactation US Holsteins using recursive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, K; Tiezzi, F; Clay, J S; Maltecca, C

    2015-04-01

    Health disorders in dairy cows have a substantial effect on the profitability of a dairy enterprise because of loss in milk sales, culling of unhealthy cows, and replacement costs. Complex relationships exist between health disorders and production traits. Understanding the causal structures among these traits may help us disentangle these complex relationships. The principal objective of this study was to use producer-recorded data to explore phenotypic and genetic relationships among reproductive and metabolic health disorders and production traits in first-lactation US Holsteins. A total of 77,004 first-lactation daughters' records of 2,183 sires were analyzed using recursive models. Health data contained information on reproductive health disorders [retained placenta (RP); metritis (METR)] and metabolic health disorders [ketosis (KETO); displaced abomasum (DA)]. Production traits included mean milk yield (MY) from early lactation (mean MY from 6 to 60 d in milk and from 61 to 120 d in milk), peak milk yield (PMY), day in milk of peak milk yield (PeakD), and lactation persistency (LP). Three different sets of traits were analyzed in which recursive effects from each health disorder on culling, recursive effects of one health disorder on another health disorder and on MY, and recursive effects of each health disorder on production traits, including PeakD, PMY, and LP, were assumed. Different recursive Gaussian-threshold and threshold models were implemented in a Bayesian framework. Estimates of the structural coefficients obtained between health disorders and culling were positive; on the liability scale, the structural coefficients ranged from 0.929 to 1.590, confirming that the presence of a health disorder increased culling. Positive recursive effects of RP to METR (0.117) and of KETO to DA (0.122) were estimated, whereas recursive effects from health disorders to production traits were negligible in all cases. Heritability estimates of health disorders ranged

  14. The Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is an important subject in public economics especially to the control of budget deficit. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in Iran by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the causality test show that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between government expenditure and revenues in both long run...

  15. On a renormalization group scheme for causal dynamical triangulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooperman, Joshua H.

    2016-03-01

    The causal dynamical triangulations approach aims to construct a quantum theory of gravity as the continuum limit of a lattice-regularized model of dynamical geometry. A renormalization group scheme—in concert with finite size scaling analysis—is essential to this aim. Formulating and implementing such a scheme in the present context raises novel and notable conceptual and technical problems. I explored these problems, and, building on standard techniques, suggested potential solutions in a previous paper (Cooperman, arXiv:gr-qc/1410.0026). As an application of these solutions, I now propose a renormalization group scheme for causal dynamical triangulations. This scheme differs significantly from that studied recently by Ambjørn, Görlich, Jurkiewicz, Kreienbuehl, and Loll.

  16. Causal inference and the data-fusion problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bareinboim, Elias; Pearl, Judea

    2016-07-01

    We review concepts, principles, and tools that unify current approaches to causal analysis and attend to new challenges presented by big data. In particular, we address the problem of data fusion-piecing together multiple datasets collected under heterogeneous conditions (i.e., different populations, regimes, and sampling methods) to obtain valid answers to queries of interest. The availability of multiple heterogeneous datasets presents new opportunities to big data analysts, because the knowledge that can be acquired from combined data would not be possible from any individual source alone. However, the biases that emerge in heterogeneous environments require new analytical tools. Some of these biases, including confounding, sampling selection, and cross-population biases, have been addressed in isolation, largely in restricted parametric models. We here present a general, nonparametric framework for handling these biases and, ultimately, a theoretical solution to the problem of data fusion in causal inference tasks. PMID:27382148

  17. Causality and Free Will

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hvorecký, Juraj

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, Supp.2 (2012), s. 64-69. ISSN 1335-0668 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/12/0833 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : conciousness * free will * determinism * causality Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

  18. Foreign direct investment and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    SUNDE, Tafirenyika

    2016-01-01

    The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causa...

  19. Causal Mediation Analyses for Randomized Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Kevin G; Cary, Mark; Gallop, Robert; Ten Have, Thomas R

    2008-01-01

    In the context of randomized intervention trials, we describe causal methods for analyzing how post-randomization factors constitute the process through which randomized baseline interventions act on outcomes. Traditionally, such mediation analyses have been undertaken with great caution, because they assume that the mediating factor is also randomly assigned to individuals in addition to the randomized baseline intervention (i.e., sequential ignorability). Because the mediating factors are typically not randomized, such analyses are unprotected from unmeasured confounders that may lead to biased inference. We review several causal approaches that attempt to reduce such bias without assuming that the mediating factor is randomized. However, these causal approaches require certain interaction assumptions that may be assessed if there is enough treatment heterogeneity with respect to the mediator. We describe available estimation procedures in the context of several examples from the literature and provide resources for software code. PMID:19484136

  20. Understanding Complexity: Pattern Recognitions, Emergent Phenomena and Causal Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raia, F.

    2010-12-01

    In teaching and learning complex systems we face a fundamental issue: Simultaneity of causal interactions -where effects are at the same time causes of systems’ behavior. Complex systems’ behavior and evolution are controlled by negative and positive feedback processes, continually changing boundary conditions and complex interaction between systems levels (emergence). These processes cannot be described and understood in a mechanistic framework where causality is conceived of being mostly of cause-effect nature or a linear chain of causes and effects. Mechanist causality by definition is characterized by the assumption that an earlier phenomenon A has a causal effect on the development of a phenomenon B. Since this concept also assumes unidirectional time, B cannot have an effect on A. Since students study science mostly in the lingering mechanistic framework, they have problems understanding complex systems. Specifically, our research on students understanding of complexity indicates that our students seem to have great difficulties in explaining mechanisms underlying natural processes within the current paradigm. Students tend to utilize simple linear model of causality and establish a one-to-one correspondence between cause and effect describing phenomena such as emergence and self-organization as being mechanistically caused. Contrary to experts, when presented with data distribution -spatial and/or temporal-, students first consider or search for a unique cause without describing the distribution or a recognized pattern. Our research suggests that students do not consider a pattern observed as an emergent phenomenon and therefore a causal determinant influencing and controlling the evolution of the system. Changes in reasoning have been observed when students 1) are iteratively asked to recognize and describe patterns in data distribution and 2) subsequently learn to identify these patterns as emergent phenomena and as fundamental causal controls over

  1. [Effective connectivity within the default mode network modulated by methylphenidate using dynamic causal modeling on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Fang-Fang; Han, Lu; He, Hong-Jian; Zhu, Yi-Hong; Zhong, Jian-Hui

    2016-06-25

    The effective connectivity of default mode network (DMN) and its change after taking methylphenidate (MPH) were investigated in this study based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was applied to compare the effective connectivity between the conditions of taking MPH and placebo for 18 healthy male volunteers. Started with the network structural basis provided by a recent literature, endogenous low frequency fluctuation signals (0.01-0.08 Hz) of each node of DMN were taken as the driving input, and thirty-two possible models were designed according to the modulation effect of MPH on different connections between nodes. Model fitting and Bayesian model selection were performed to find the winning model and corresponding parameters. Our results indicated that the effective connectivity from medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) to posterior cingulated cortex (PCC), from left/right inferior parietal lobule (L/RIPL) to MPFC, and from RIPL to PCC were excitatory, whereas the connectivity from LIPL to PCC was inhibitory. Further t-test statistics on connectivity parameters found that MPH significantly reduced the link from RIPL to MPFC in DMN (t = 2.724, P = 0.016) and changed the weak excitatory state to inhibitory state. However, it had no significant effect on other connections. In all, our results demonstrated that MPH modulates the effective connectivity within DMN in resting state. PMID:27350198

  2. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  3. Unified mechanical approach to piezoelectric bender modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Dunsch, Robert; Breguet, Jean-Marc

    2007-01-01

    Anewanalytical modeling approach for piezoelectric bending elements is described. The approach is based on the beam theory under quasi-static equilibrium condition. It uses the theory of superposition of piezoelectric action in the bender and external moments and forces acting on the bender. Due to the differential approach, this model is applicable to any geometrical design for which the beam theory holds. The distinction between the piezoelectric action and the external loads makes the mode...

  4. Learning Actions Models: Qualitative Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolander, Thomas; Gierasimczuk, Nina

    2015-01-01

    identifiability (conclusively inferring the appropriate action model in finite time) and identifiability in the limit (inconclusive convergence to the right action model). We show that deterministic actions are finitely identifiable, while non-deterministic actions require more learning power—they are...... identifiable in the limit.We then move on to a particular learning method, which proceeds via restriction of a space of events within a learning-specific action model. This way of learning closely resembles the well-known update method from dynamic epistemic logic. We introduce several different learning...... methods suited for finite identifiability of particular types of deterministic actions....

  5. Evaluating Modelling Approaches for Medical Image Annotations

    CERN Document Server

    Opitz, Jasmin; Sattler, Ulrike

    2010-01-01

    Information system designers face many challenges w.r.t. selecting appropriate semantic technologies and deciding on a modelling approach for their system. However, there is no clear methodology yet to evaluate "semantically enriched" information systems. In this paper we present a case study on different modelling approaches for annotating medical images and introduce a conceptual framework that can be used to analyse the fitness of information systems and help designers to spot the strengths and weaknesses of various modelling approaches as well as managing trade-offs between modelling effort and their potential benefits.

  6. A Unified Approach to Modeling and Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Lehrmann; Møller-Pedersen, Birger

    2010-01-01

    SIMULA was a language for modeling and programming and provided a unied approach to modeling and programming in contrast to methodologies based on structured analysis and design. The current development seems to be going in the direction of separation of modeling and programming. The goal...... of this paper is to go back to the future and get inspiration from SIMULA and propose a unied approach. In addition to reintroducing the contributions of SIMULA and the Scandinavian approach to object-oriented programming, we do this by discussing a number of issues in modeling and programming and argue3 why we...

  7. Random Effects Cox Models: A Poisson Modelling Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Renjun Ma; Daniel Krewski; Burnett, Richard T.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a Poisson modelling approach to random effects Cox proportional hazards models. Specifically we describe methods of statistical inference for a class of random effects Cox models which accommodate a wide range of nested random effects distributions. The orthodox BLUP approach to random effects Poisson modeling techniques enables us to study this new class of models as a single class, rather than as a collection of unrelated models. The explicit expressions for the random effects gi...

  8. Tachyon Kinematics and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The chronological order of the events along a space-like path is not invariant under Lorentz transformations, as wellknown. This led to an early conviction that tachyons would give rise to causal anomalies. A relativistic version of the Stuckelberg-Feynman switching procedure (SWP) has been invoked as the suitable tool to eliminate those anomalies. The application of the SWP does eliminate the motions backwards in time, but interchanges the roles of source and dector. This fact triggered the proposal of a host of causal paradoxes. Till now, however, it has not been recognized that such paradoxes can be sensibly discussed (and completely solved, at least in microphysics) only after having properly developed the tachyon relativistic mechanics. We start by showing how to apply the SWP, both in the case of ordiry Special Relativity, and in the case with tachyons. Then, we carefully exploit the kinematics of the tachyon-exchange between to (ordinary) bodies. Being finally able to tackle the tachyon-causality problem, we successively solve the paradoxes: (i) by Tolman-Regge; (ii) by Pirani; (iii) by Edmonds; (iv) by Bell. At last, we discuss a further, new paradox associated with the transmission of signals by modulated tachyon beams

  9. Causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2014-01-01

    Given two time series, can one tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion namely information flow, we arrive at a concise formula and give this challenging question, which is of wide concern in different disciplines, a positive answer. Here causality is measured by the time rate of change of information flowing from one series, say, X2, to another, X1. The measure is asymmetric between the two parties and, particularly, if the process underlying X1 does not depend on X2, then the resulting causality from X2 to X1 vanishes. The formula is tight in form, involving only the commonly used statistics, sample covariances. It has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality. It has also been applied to the investigation of real world problems; an example presented here is the cause-effect relation between two climate modes, El Ni\\~no and Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been linked to the hazards in f...

  10. Impaired Bottom-Up Effective Connectivity Between Amygdala and Subgenual Anterior Cingulate Cortex in Unmedicated Adolescents with Major Depression: Results from a Dynamic Causal Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musgrove, Donald R; Eberly, Lynn E; Klimes-Dougan, Bonnie; Basgoze, Zeynep; Thomas, Kathleen M; Mueller, Bryon A; Houri, Alaa; Lim, Kelvin O; Cullen, Kathryn R

    2015-12-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a significant contributor to lifetime disability and frequently emerges in adolescence, yet little is known about the neural mechanisms of MDD in adolescents. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) analysis is an innovative tool that can shed light on neural network abnormalities. A DCM analysis was conducted to test several frontolimbic effective connectivity models in 27 adolescents with MDD and 21 healthy adolescents. The best neural model for each person was identified using Bayesian model selection. The findings revealed that the two adolescent groups fit similar optimal neural models. The best across-groups model was then used to infer upon both within-group and between-group tests of intrinsic and modulation parameters of the network connections. First, for model validation, within-group tests revealed robust evidence for bottom-up connectivity, but less evidence for strong top-down connectivity in both groups. Second, we tested for differences between groups on the validated parameters of the best model. This revealed that adolescents with MDD had significantly weaker bottom-up connectivity in one pathway, from amygdala to sgACC (p=0.008), than healthy controls. This study provides the first examination of effective connectivity using DCM within neural circuitry implicated in emotion processing in adolescents with MDD. These findings aid in advancing understanding the neurobiology of early-onset MDD during adolescence and have implications for future research investigating how effective connectivity changes across contexts, with development, over the course of the disease, and after intervention. PMID:26050933

  11. Non-parametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    CERN Document Server

    McCracken, James M

    2015-01-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  12. Finitary Spacetime Sheaves of Quantum Causal Sets Curving Quantum Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Mallios, A

    2001-01-01

    A locally finite, causal and quantal substitute for a locally Minkowskian principal fiber bundle $\\cal{P}$ of modules of Cartan differential forms $\\omg$ over a bounded region $X$ of a curved $C^{\\infty}$-smooth differential manifold spacetime $M$ with structure group ${\\bf G}$ that of orthochronous Lorentz transformations $L^{+}:=SO(1,3)^{\\uparrow}$, is presented. ${\\cal{P}}$ is the structure on which classical Lorentzian gravity, regarded as a Yang-Mills type of gauge theory of a $sl(2,\\com)$-valued connection 1-form $\\cal{A}$, is usually formulated. The mathematical structure employed to model this replacement of ${\\cal{P}}$ is a principal finitary spacetime sheaf $\\vec{\\cal{P}}_{n}$ of quantum causal sets $\\amg_{n}$ with structure group ${\\bf G}_{n}$, which is a finitary version of the group ${\\bf G}$ of local symmetries of General Relativity, and a finitary Lie algebra ${\\bf g}_{n}$-valued connection 1-form ${\\cal{A}}_{n}$ on it, which is a section of its sub-sheaf $\\amg^{1}_{n}$. ${\\cal{A}}_{n}$ is phys...

  13. Matrix model approach to cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaney, A.; Lu, Lei; Stern, A.

    2016-03-01

    We perform a systematic search for rotationally invariant cosmological solutions to toy matrix models. These models correspond to the bosonic sector of Lorentzian Ishibashi, Kawai, Kitazawa and Tsuchiya (IKKT)-type matrix models in dimensions d less than ten, specifically d =3 and d =5 . After taking a continuum (or commutative) limit they yield d -1 dimensional Poisson manifolds. The manifolds have a Lorentzian induced metric which can be associated with closed, open, or static space-times. For d =3 , we obtain recursion relations from which it is possible to generate rotationally invariant matrix solutions which yield open universes in the continuum limit. Specific examples of matrix solutions have also been found which are associated with closed and static two-dimensional space-times in the continuum limit. The solutions provide for a resolution of cosmological singularities, at least within the context of the toy matrix models. The commutative limit reveals other desirable features, such as a solution describing a smooth transition from an initial inflation to a noninflationary era. Many of the d =3 solutions have analogues in higher dimensions. The case of d =5 , in particular, has the potential for yielding realistic four-dimensional cosmologies in the continuum limit. We find four-dimensional de Sitter d S4 or anti-de Sitter AdS4 solutions when a totally antisymmetric term is included in the matrix action. A nontrivial Poisson structure is attached to these manifolds which represents the lowest order effect of noncommutativity. For the case of AdS4 , we find one particular limit where the lowest order noncommutativity vanishes at the boundary, but not in the interior.

  14. Probabilistic risk analysis in manufacturing situational operation: application of modelling techniques and causal structure to improve safety performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Cristiano Pereira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of probabilistic risk analysis in jet engines manufacturing process is essential to prevent failure. The objective of this study is to present a probabilistic risk analysis model to analyze the safety of this process. The standard risk assessment normally conducted is inadequate to address the risks. To remedy this problem, the model presented in this paper considers the effects of human, software and calibration reliability in the process. Bayesian Belief Network coupled to a Bow Tie diagram is used to identify potential engine failure scenarios. In this context and to meet this objective, an in depth literature research was conducted to identify the most appropriate modeling techniques and an interview were conducted with experts. As a result of this study, this paper presents a model that combines fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and a Bayesian Belief Networks into a single model that can be used by decision makers to identify critical risk factors in order to allocate resources to improve the safety of the system. The model is delivered in the form of a computer assisted decision tool supported by subject expert estimates.

  15. Quantum causality, stochastics, trajectories and information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A history of the discovery of 'new' quantum mechanics and the paradoxes of its probabilistic interpretation are briefly reviewed from the modern point of view of quantum probability and information. Modern quantum theory, which has been developed during the last 20 years for the treatment of quantum open systems including quantum noise, decoherence, quantum diffusions and spontaneous jumps occurring under continuous in time observation, is not yet a part of the standard curriculum of quantum physics. It is argued that the conventional formalism of quantum mechanics is insufficient for the description of quantum events, such as spontaneous decays say, and the new experimental phenomena related to individual quantum measurements, but they have all received an adequate mathematical treatment in quantum stochastics of open systems. Moreover, the only reasonable probabilistic interpretation of quantum mechanics put forward by Max Born was, in fact, in irreconcilable contradiction with traditional mechanical reality and causality. This led to numerous quantum paradoxes, some of them due to the great inventors of quantum theory such as Einstein and Schroedinger. They are reconsidered in this paper from the modern point of view of quantum stochastics and information. The development of quantum measurement theory, initiated by von Neumann, indicated a possibility for resolution of this interpretational crisis by divorcing the algebra of the dynamical generators and the algebra of the actual observables, or Bell's beables. It is shown that within this approach quantum causality can be rehabilitated in the form of a superselection rule for compatibility of the actual histories with the potential future. This rule, together with the self-compatibility of the measurements ensuring the consistency of the histories, is called the nondemolition, or causality principle in modern quantum theory. The application of this rule in the form of dynamical commutation relations leads to the

  16. Model Oriented Approach for Industrial Software Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. D. Drobintsev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the specifics of a model oriented approach to software development based on the usage of Model Driven Architecture (MDA, Model Driven Software Development (MDSD and Model Driven Development (MDD technologies. Benefits of this approach usage in the software development industry are described. The main emphasis is put on the system design, automated code generation for large systems, verification, proof of system properties and reduction of bug density. Drawbacks of the approach are also considered. The approach proposed in the article is specific for industrial software systems development. These systems are characterized by different levels of abstraction, which is used on modeling and code development phases. The approach allows to detail the model to the level of the system code, at the same time store the verified model semantics and provide the checking of the whole detailed model. Steps of translating abstract data structures (including transactions, signals and their parameters into data structures used in detailed system implementation are presented. Also the grammar of a language for specifying rules of abstract model data structures transformation into real system detailed data structures is described. The results of applying the proposed method in the industrial technology are shown.The article is published in the authors’ wording.

  17. Chemogenetic approach to model hypofrontality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Ike Dela; Shi, Wei-Xing

    2016-08-01

    Clinical evidence suggests that the prefrontal cortex (PFC) is hypofunctional in disorders including schizophrenia, drug addiction, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In schizophrenia, hypofrontality has been further suggested to cause both the negative and cognitive symptoms, and overactivity of dopamine neurons that project to subcortical areas. The latter may contribute to the development of positive symptoms of the disorder. Nevertheless, what causes hypofrontality and how it alters dopamine transmission in subcortical structures remain unclear due, in part, to the difficulty in modeling hypofrontality using previous techniques (e.g. PFC lesioning, focal cooling, repeated treatment with psychotomimetic drugs). We propose that the use of designer receptors exclusively activated by designer drugs (DREADDs) chemogenetic technique will allow precise interrogations of PFC functions. Combined with electrophysiological recordings, we can investigate the effects of PFC hypofunction on activity of dopamine neurons. Importantly, from a drug target discovery perspective, the use of DREADDs will enable us to examine whether chemogenetically enhancing PFC activity will reverse the behavioral abnormalities associated with PFC hypofunction and dopamine neuron overactivity, and also explore druggable targets for the treatment of schizophrenia and other disorders associated with abnormalities via modulation of the G-protein coupled receptor signaling pathway. In conclusion, the use of the DREADDs technique has several advantages over other previously employed strategies to simulate PFC hypofunction not only in terms of disease modeling but also from the viewpoint of drug target discovery. PMID:27372868

  18. Electricity consumption and economic growth in Algeria: A multivariate causality analysis in the presence of structural change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article addresses the issue of electricity consumption, petroleum price and economic growth in Algeria. The primary objective is to investigate and analyze the causal relationship between electricity consumption (EC), Brent oil price (BOP) and economic growth (GDP) for Algeria over the period of 1971–2010. To examine short-run, long-run and joint causality relationships we used a multivariate cointegration approach based on the recent advances in time series econometrics (e.g., Zivot–Andrews test; Gregory–Hansen cointegration test; Vector Error Correction Models (VECM)). The empirical results show that there is evidence of short-run and a strong long-run bi-directional causal relationship between EC and real GDP in Algeria. Findings indicate also the absence of causal relationship between BOP and EC. Our empirical findings support the idea that there a link between electricity consumption and economic growth and disproves the neo-classical assumption referred to as the “neutrality hypothesis”. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationships between EC, GDP and BOP of Algeria. ► We used a multivariate approach based on ZA, Gregory–Hansen and Granger tests. ► There is a short-run bi-directional relationship between EC and GDP of Algeria. ► Results also substantiate a strong long-run bi-directional causality between EC and GDP. ► Findings disprove the assumption referred to as the neutrality hypothesis

  19. Searching for phenotypic causal networks involving complex traits: an application to European quail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valente Bruno D

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural equation models (SEM are used to model multiple traits and the casual links among them. The number of different causal structures that can be used to fit a SEM is typically very large, even when only a few traits are studied. In recent applications of SEM in quantitative genetics mixed model settings, causal structures were pre-selected based on prior beliefs alone. Alternatively, there are algorithms that search for structures that are compatible with the joint distribution of the data. However, such a search cannot be performed directly on the joint distribution of the phenotypes since causal relationships are possibly masked by genetic covariances. In this context, the application of the Inductive Causation (IC algorithm to the joint distribution of phenotypes conditional to unobservable genetic effects has been proposed. Methods Here, we applied this approach to five traits in European quail: birth weight (BW, weight at 35 days of age (W35, age at first egg (AFE, average egg weight from 77 to 110 days of age (AEW, and number of eggs laid in the same period (NE. We have focused the discussion on the challenges and difficulties resulting from applying this method to field data. Statistical decisions regarding partial correlations were based on different Highest Posterior Density (HPD interval contents and models based on the selected causal structures were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC. In addition, we used temporal information to perform additional edge orienting, overriding the algorithm output when necessary. Results As a result, the final causal structure consisted of two separated substructures: BW→AEW and W35→AFE→NE, where an arrow represents a direct effect. Comparison between a SEM with the selected structure and a Multiple Trait Animal Model using DIC indicated that the SEM is more plausible. Conclusions Coupling prior knowledge with the output provided by the IC algorithm

  20. Modelling the Causal Relationship between Seniority of the CEO in the Enterprise and the Debt in USA

    OpenAIRE

    Chafik Kammoun; Boujelbene Younes

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a model in which the interaction of Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt can be analyzed. Multiple securities arise as optimal in the model. This allows for a meaningful analysis of interaction effects between Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt for a panel of USA firms from 2000 to 2009. There is a predicted (positive) relationship between Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt. Finally, this paper uses the recent developm...

  1. Quantum retrodiction and causality principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantum mechanics is factually a predictive science. But quantum retrodiction may also be needed, e.g., for the experimental verification of the validity of the Schroedinger equation for the wave function in the past if the present state is given. It is shown that in the retrodictive analog of the prediction the measurement must be replaced by another physical process called the retromeasurement. In this process, the reduction of a state vector into eigenvectors of a measured observable must proceed in the opposite direction of time as compared to the usual reduction. Examples of such processes are unknown. Moreover, they are shown to be forbidden by the causality principle stating that the later event cannot influence the earlier one. So quantum retrodiction seems to be unrealizable. It is demonstrated that the approach to the retrodiction given by S.Watanabe and F.Belinfante must be considered as an unsatisfactory ersatz of retrodicting. 20 refs., 3 figs

  2. Conceptual approach to modeling karst development

    OpenAIRE

    Mihael Brenčič

    1995-01-01

    Karst is probably one of the most complicated hydrogeological systems at all.Its structure is complex and it changes in time. In the article conceptual approaches are described which could help establishing numerical simulation models for karst development. These approaches repose on the systems theory and the concept of the pure karst.

  3. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  4. Work Climate, Organizational Commitment, and Highway Safety in the Trucking Industry: Toward Causal Modeling of Large Truck Crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Carroll M.; Scott, Aaron J.; Nafukho, Fredrick M.

    2008-01-01

    While theoretical models aimed at explaining or predicting employee turnover outcomes have been developed, minimal consideration has been given to the same task regarding safety, often measured as the probability of a crash in a given time frame. The present literature review identifies four constructs from turnover literature, which are believed…

  5. Wage Equity and Female Job Satisfaction: The Role of Wage Differentials in a Job Satisfaction Causal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagedorn, Linda Serra

    1996-01-01

    Using data from a national survey of faculty, a study examined the role of male/female wage differentials in a model of job satisfaction for full-time female faculty. Results indicated that as gender-based wage differentials increased, females' global job satisfaction decreased, with the effect mainly in faculty perceptions of the institution.…

  6. Quantum information causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitalúa-García, Damián

    2013-05-24

    How much information can a transmitted physical system fundamentally communicate? We introduce the principle of quantum information causality, which states the maximum amount of quantum information that a quantum system can communicate as a function of its dimension, independently of any previously shared quantum physical resources. We present a new quantum information task, whose success probability is upper bounded by the new principle, and show that an optimal strategy to perform it combines the quantum teleportation and superdense coding protocols with a task that has classical inputs. PMID:23745844

  7. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    OpenAIRE

    Daniusis, Povilas; Janzing, Dominik; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the ...

  8. A MIMIC approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, David Han-Min; Lin, Jer-Yan; Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang

    2006-11-01

    The size of underground economy (UE) expansion usually increases the tax gap, impose a burden on the economy, and results in tax distortions. This study uses the MIMIC approach to model the causal variables and indicating variables to estimate the UE in Taiwan. We also focus on testing the data for non-stationarity and perform diagnostic tests. By using annual time-series data for Taiwan from 1961 to 2003, it is found that the estimated size of the UE varies from 11.0% to 13.1% before 1988, and from 10.6% to 11.8% from 1989 onwards. That the size of the UE experienced a substantial downward shift in 1989 indicates that there was a structural break. The UE is significantly and positively affected by such casual variables as the logarithm of real government consumption and currency inflation, but is negatively affected by the tax burden at 5% significant level. Unemployment rate and crime rate are not significantly correlated with the UE in this study.

  9. Modelling the Causal Relationship between Seniority of the CEO in the Enterprise and the Debt in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafik Kammoun

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a model in which the interaction of Seniority of the C.E.O in theenterprise and the debt can be analyzed. Multiple securities arise as optimal in the model. This allowsfor a meaningful analysis of interaction effects between Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise andthe debt for a panel of USA firms from 2000 to 2009. There is a predicted (positive relationshipbetween Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt. Finally, this paper uses the recentdevelopments in the econometrics of non-stationarydynamic panels to reassess the relationshipbetween Seniority of the C.E.O in the enterprise and the debt

  10. Does Financial Growth lead Economic Performance in India? Causality-Cointegration using Unrestricted Vector Error Correction Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kamat, Manoj; Kamat, Manasvi

    2007-01-01

    Using contemporary models this paper explores the time-series properties of financial infrastructure and economic growth indicators to investigate the nexus between developments in financial intermediation with the economic growth for India over the 1971-2004 periods. Both over short-run and the long-run perspective the paper seeks to answer; whether the financial infrastructure variables are complementary or a substitute for economic performance? and in what way economic growth is affected b...

  11. A Causal Model of the Quality Activities Process: Exploring the Links between Quality Capabilities, Competitiveness and Organizational Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-tao Yu; Bor-wen Cheng

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between Total Quality Management (TQM) practices, quality capabilities, competitiveness and firm performance. In this study, TQM has been conceptualized as soft and hard practices. An empirical analysis based upon an extensive validation process was applied to refine the construct scales, respectively. The sample consists of 423 valid responses for applying Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results derived from this study show that so...

  12. Test of a causal Human Resource Management-Performance Linkage Model: Evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

    OpenAIRE

    Katou, A.

    2011-01-01

    Although a number of studies have recognized the relationship between Human Resource Management (HRM) policies and organisational performance, the mechanisms through which HRM policies lead to organisational performance remain still unexplored. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pathways leading from HRM policies to organisational performance by using structural equation modelling. Specifically, this analytical tool has been used to test a research framework that is constituted ...

  13. Adaptive estimation of vector autoregressive models with time-varying variance: application to testing linear causality in mean

    OpenAIRE

    Patilea, Valentin; Raïssi, Hamdi

    2010-01-01

    Linear Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models where the innovations could be unconditionally heteroscedastic and serially dependent are considered. The volatility structure is deterministic and quite general, including breaks or trending variances as special cases. In this framework we propose Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Least Squares (GLS) and Adaptive Least Squares (ALS) procedures. The GLS estimator requires the knowledge of the time-varying variance structure while in the ALS ap...

  14. Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth. - Highlights: • We examine the energy–FDI–growth nexus for a global panel of 65 countries. • Dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models are used to address this issue. • We also investigate this nexus for three sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. • We show mixed results about the interrelationship between the three variables

  15. Causal mediation analysis with a latent mediator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Jeffrey M; Geng, Cuiyu; Nelson, Suchitra

    2016-05-01

    Health researchers are often interested in assessing the direct effect of a treatment or exposure on an outcome variable, as well as its indirect (or mediation) effect through an intermediate variable (or mediator). For an outcome following a nonlinear model, the mediation formula may be used to estimate causally interpretable mediation effects. This method, like others, assumes that the mediator is observed. However, as is common in structural equations modeling, we may wish to consider a latent (unobserved) mediator. We follow a potential outcomes framework and assume a generalized structural equations model (GSEM). We provide maximum-likelihood estimation of GSEM parameters using an approximate Monte Carlo EM algorithm, coupled with a mediation formula approach to estimate natural direct and indirect effects. The method relies on an untestable sequential ignorability assumption; we assess robustness to this assumption by adapting a recently proposed method for sensitivity analysis. Simulation studies show good properties of the proposed estimators in plausible scenarios. Our method is applied to a study of the effect of mother education on occurrence of adolescent dental caries, in which we examine possible mediation through latent oral health behavior. PMID:26363769

  16. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  17. Bulk viscous cosmology with causal transport theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider cosmological scenarios originating from a single imperfect fluid with bulk viscosity and apply Eckart's and both the full and the truncated Müller-Israel-Stewart's theories as descriptions of the non-equilibrium processes. Our principal objective is to investigate if the dynamical properties of Dark Matter and Dark Energy can be described by a single viscous fluid and how such description changes when a causal theory (Müller-Israel-Stewart's, both in its full and truncated forms) is taken into account instead of Eckart's non-causal one. To this purpose, we find numerical solutions for the gravitational potential and compare its behaviour with the corresponding ΛCDM case. Eckart's and the full causal theory seem to be disfavoured, whereas the truncated theory leads to results similar to those of the ΛCDM model for a bulk viscous speed in the interval 10−11 || cb2 ∼−8

  18. The causal meaning of Hamilton's rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okasha, Samir; Martens, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    Hamilton's original derivation of his rule for the spread of an altruistic gene (rb>c) assumed additivity of costs and benefits. Recently, it has been argued that an exact version of the rule holds under non-additive pay-offs, so long as the cost and benefit terms are suitably defined, as partial regression coefficients. However, critics have questioned both the biological significance and the causal meaning of the resulting rule. This paper examines the causal meaning of the generalized Hamilton's rule in a simple model, by computing the effect of a hypothetical experiment to assess the cost of a social action and comparing it to the partial regression definition. The two do not agree. A possible way of salvaging the causal meaning of Hamilton's rule is explored, by appeal to R. A. Fisher's 'average effect of a gene substitution'. PMID:27069669

  19. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  20. Causality between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry: An application of the panel vector error correction model (VECM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the period 1979-80 to 2004-05. The most recently developed panel unit root, a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model, is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical results confirm a positive, long-run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account. We also found a long-run, bi-directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the study period, implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption. These empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other. The empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy-use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry.

  1. Quantitative genetic analysis of causal relationships among feather pecking, feather eating, and general locomotor activity in laying hens using structural equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, V; Kjaer, J B; Iffland, H; Rodehutscord, M; Bessei, W; Bennewitz, J

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this research was to analyze the relationship between feather pecking (FP) and feather eating (FE) as well as general locomotor activity (GLA) using structural equation models, which allow that one trait can be treated as an explanatory variable of another trait. This provides an opportunity to infer putative causal links among the traits. For the analysis, 897 F2-hens set up from 2 lines divergently selected for high and low FP were available. The FP observations were Box-Cox transformed, and FE and GLA observations were log and square root transformed, respectively. The estimated heritabilities of FE, GLA, and FP were 0.36, 0.29, and 0.20, respectively. The genetic correlation between FP and FE (GLA) was 0.17 (0.04). A high genetic correlation of 0.47 was estimated between FE and GLA. The recursive effect from FE to FP was [Formula: see text], and from GLA to FP [Formula: see text] These results imply that an increase of FE leads to an increased FP behavior and that an increase in GLA results in a higher FP value. Furthermore, the study showed that the genetic correlation among the traits is mainly caused by indirect effects. PMID:27252366

  2. A Causal Model of the Quality Activities Process: Exploring the Links between Quality Capabilities, Competitiveness and Organizational Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-tao Yu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between Total Quality Management (TQM practices, quality capabilities, competitiveness and firm performance. In this study, TQM has been conceptualized as soft and hard practices. An empirical analysis based upon an extensive validation process was applied to refine the construct scales, respectively. The sample consists of 423 valid responses for applying Structural Equation Modeling (SEM. Results derived from this study show that soft TQM practices have a direct, positive and significant relationship between quality capabilities, competitive strategies and Organizational performance. In addition, an indirect, positive and significant relationship on organizational performance through quality capabilities and competitive strategies was observed. The findings of this research show that hypotheses H3b, H4b and H6b do not support, the rest are in line with the model inference. Particularly, from the results indicate that soft TQM are the most important resource, which has strong effects on organizational performance. Results derived from this study might help managers to implement TQM practices in order to effectively allocate resources and improve financial performance. Thus, managers should consider that improvement in soft TQM would support the successful implementation of quality capabilities, competitive advantage and organizational performance. Much efforts relating to social aspects in TQM activities are particularly key issues to improve performance.

  3. Estimating Causal Effects With Propensity Score Models: An Evaluation of the Touch Condom Media Campaign in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoin, Christopher E; Chen, Hongliang; Agha, Sohail

    2016-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Pakistan poses major risks, including those pertinent to public health. In the context of family planning in Pakistan, the current study evaluates the Touch condom media campaign and its effects on condom-related awareness, attitudes, behavioral intention, and behavior. This evaluation relies on 3 waves of panel survey data from men married to women ages 15-49 living in urban and rural areas in Pakistan (N = 1,012): Wave 1 was March 15 to April 7, 2009; Wave 2 was August 10 to August 24, 2009; and Wave 3 was May 1 to June 13, 2010. Analysis of variance provided evidence of improvements in 10 of 11 condom-related outcomes from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and Wave 3. In addition, there was no evidence of outcome decay 1 year after the conclusion of campaign advertising dissemination. To help compensate for violating the assumption of random assignment, propensity score modeling offered evidence of the beneficial effects of confirmed Touch ad recall on each of the 11 outcomes in at least 1 of 3 time-lagged scenarios. By using these different time-lagged scenarios (i.e., from Wave 1 to Wave 2, from Wave 1 to Wave 3, and from Wave 2 to Wave 3), propensity score modeling permitted insights into how the campaign had time-variant effects on the different types of condom-related outcomes, including carryover effects of the media campaign. PMID:26855176

  4. Determining the direction of causality between psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance

    OpenAIRE

    Maarten Kroesen; Eric J. E. Molin; Bert van Wee

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an attempt is made to establish the direction of causality between a range of psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance. For this purpose, a panel model was estimated within a structural equation modeling approach. Data were gathered from two surveys conducted in April 2006 and April 2008, respectively, among the same residents living within the 45 Level day-evening-night contour of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands (n=250). A surprisin...

  5. A Causal Construction of Diffusion Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Banek, Tadeusz

    2010-01-01

    A simple nonlinear integral equation for Ito's map is obtained. Although, it does not include stochastic integrals, it does give causal construction of diffusion processes which can be easily implemented by iteration systems. Applications in financial modelling and extension to fBm are discussed.

  6. Causal dissipative hydrodynamics for heavy ion collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, A K

    2011-01-01

    We briefly discuss the recent developments in causal dissipative hydrodynamic for relativistic heavy ion collisions. Phenomenological estimate of QGP viscosity over entropy ratio from several experimental data, e.g. STAR's $\\phi$ meson data, centrality dependence of elliptic flow, universal scaling elliptic flow etc. are discussed. QGP viscosity, extracted from hydrodynamical model analysis can have very large systematic uncertainty due to uncertain initial conditions.

  7. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  8. K-causal structure of space-time in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sujatha Janardhan; R V Saraykar

    2008-04-01

    Using K-causal relation introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar [1], we generalize results of Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla [2,3] on causal maps. We also introduce causality conditions with respect to K-causality which are analogous to those in classical causality theory and prove their inter-relationships. We introduce a new causality condition following the work of Bombelli and Noldus [4] and show that this condition lies in between global hyperbolicity and causal simplicity. This approach is simpler and more general as compared to traditional causal approach [5,6] and it has been used by Penrose et al [7] in giving a new proof of positivity of mass theorem. 0-space-time structures arise in many mathematical and physical situations like conical singularities, discontinuous matter distributions, phenomena of topology-change in quantum field theory etc.

  9. From Blickets to Synapses: Inferring Temporal Causal Networks by Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Chrisantha

    2013-01-01

    How do human infants learn the causal dependencies between events? Evidence suggests that this remarkable feat can be achieved by observation of only a handful of examples. Many computational models have been produced to explain how infants perform causal inference without explicit teaching about statistics or the scientific method. Here, we…

  10. Final Report for Dynamic Models for Causal Analysis of Panel Data. Models for Change in Quantitative Variables, Part I Deterministic Models. Part II, Chapter 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Michael T.

    This document is part of a series of chapters described in SO 011 759. Addressing the question of effective models to measure change and the change process, the author suggests that linear structural equation systems may be viewed as steady state outcomes of continuous-change models and have rich sociological grounding. Two interpretations of the…

  11. Relativistic hydrodynamics - causality and stability

    OpenAIRE

    Ván, P.; Biró, T. S.

    2007-01-01

    Causality and stability in relativistic dissipative hydrodynamics are important conceptual issues. We argue that causality is not restricted to hyperbolic set of differential equations. E.g. heat conduction equation can be causal considering the physical validity of the theory. Furthermore we propose a new concept of relativistic internal energy that clearly separates the dissipative and non-dissipative effects. We prove that with this choice we remove all known instabilities of the linear re...

  12. Quantum objects as elementary units of causality and locality

    CERN Document Server

    Diel, Hans H

    2016-01-01

    The author's attempt to construct a local causal model of quantum theory (QT) that includes quantum field theory (QFT) resulted in the identification of "quantum objects" as the elementary units of causality and locality. Quantum objects are collections of particles (including single particles) whose collective dynamics and measurement results can only be described by the laws of QT and QFT. Local causal models of quantum objects' internal dynamics are not possible if a locality is understood as a space-point locality. Within quantum objects, state transitions may occur which instantly affect the whole quantum object. The identification of quantum objects as the elementary units of causality and locality has two primary implications for a causal model of quantum objects: (1) quantum objects run autonomously with system-state update frequencies based on their local proper times and with either no or minimal dependency on external parameters. (2) The laws of physics that describe global (but relativistic) inter...

  13. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    Although microbial populations are typically described by averaged properties, individual cells present a certain degree of variability. Indeed, initially clonal microbial populations develop into heterogeneous populations, even when growing in a homogeneous environment. A heterogeneous microbial...... an extension of the proposed model framework (PBM coupled to an unstructured model) to a continuous cultivation. A compartment model approach was applied for addressing situations where two zones (compartments) are formed due to non-ideal mixing in the bioreactor. In particular, this approach was used in order...

  14. A Multivariate Approach to Functional Neuro Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørch, Niels J.S.

    1998-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis, A Multivariate Approach to Functional Neuro Modeling, deals with the analysis and modeling of data from functional neuro imaging experiments. A multivariate dataset description is provided which facilitates efficient representation of typical datasets and, more importantly...... macroscopic variables to be manifestations of an underlying system. - A review of two microscopic basis selection procedures, namely principal component analysis and independent component analysis, with respect to their applicability to functional datasets. - Quantitative model performance assessment via a...

  15. Sparse Kernel Modelling: A Unified Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, S.; Hong, X.; Harris, C J

    2007-01-01

    A unified approach is proposed for sparse kernel data modelling that includes regression and classification as well as probability density function estimation. The orthogonal-least-squares forward selection method based on the leave-one-out test criteria is presented within this unified data-modelling framework to construct sparse kernel models that generalise well. Examples from regression, classification and density estimation applications are used to illustrate the effectiveness of this ge...

  16. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach

    OpenAIRE

    Todorov, Alexander; Baron, Sean G.; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N.

    2008-01-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging ...

  17. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  18. Stormwater infiltration trenches: a conceptual modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, limitations linked to traditional urban drainage schemes have been pointed out and new approaches are developing introducing more natural methods for retaining and/or disposing of stormwater. These mitigation measures are generally called Best Management Practices or Sustainable Urban Drainage System and they include practices such as infiltration and storage tanks in order to reduce the peak flow and retain part of the polluting components. The introduction of such practices in urban drainage systems entails an upgrade of existing modelling frameworks in order to evaluate their efficiency in mitigating the impact of urban drainage systems on receiving water bodies. While storage tank modelling approaches are quite well documented in literature, some gaps are still present about infiltration facilities mainly dependent on the complexity of the involved physical processes. In this study, a simplified conceptual modelling approach for the simulation of the infiltration trenches is presented. The model enables to assess the performance of infiltration trenches. The main goal is to develop a model that can be employed for the assessment of the mitigation efficiency of infiltration trenches in an integrated urban drainage context. Particular care was given to the simulation of infiltration structures considering the performance reduction due to clogging phenomena. The proposed model has been compared with other simplified modelling approaches and with a physically based model adopted as benchmark. The model performed better compared to other approaches considering both unclogged facilities and the effect of clogging. On the basis of a long-term simulation of six years of rain data, the performance and the effectiveness of an infiltration trench measure are assessed. The study confirmed the important role played by the clogging phenomenon on such infiltration structures. PMID:19587416

  19. The Framework, Causal and Co-compact Structure of Space-time

    CERN Document Server

    Kovár, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a canonical, compact topology, which we call weakly causal, naturally generated by the causal site of J. D. Christensen and L. Crane, a pointless algebraic structure motivated by certain problems of quantum gravity. We show that for every four-dimensional globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifold there exists an associated causal site, whose weakly causal topology is co-compact with respect to the manifold topology and vice versa. Thus, the causal site has the full information about the topology of space-time, represented by the Lorentzian manifold. In addition, we show that there exist also non-Lorentzian causal sites (whose causal relation is not a continuous poset) and so the weakly causal topology and its de Groot dual extends the usual manifold topology of space-time beyond topologies generated by the traditional, smooth model. As a source of inspiration in topologizing the studied causal structures, we use some methods and constructions of general topology and formal concept analysis.

  20. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    CERN Document Server

    Daniusis, Povilas; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the distribution of the effect will, in a certain sense, depend on the function. We provide a theoretical analysis of this method, showing that it also works in the low noise regime, and link it to information geometry. We report strong empirical results on various real-world data sets from different domains.

  1. Polyhedral approach to statistical learning graphical models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan; Hemmecke, R.; Vomlel, Jiří; Lindner, S.

    Osaka : JST CREST, 2010. s. 1-4. [The 2nd CREST-SBM International Conference "Harmony of Groebner Bases and the Moderm Industrial Socienty". 28.06.2010-02.07.2010, Hotel Hankyu Expo Park, Osaka] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian network * polyhedral approach * imset Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-polyhedral approach to statistical learning graphical models.pdf

  2. Building Water Models, A Different Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Izadi, Saeed; Onufriev, Alexey V

    2014-01-01

    Simplified, classical models of water are an integral part of atomistic molecular simulations, especially in biology and chemistry where hydration effects are critical. Yet, despite several decades of effort, these models are still far from perfect. Presented here is an alternative approach to constructing point charge water models - currently, the most commonly used type. In contrast to the conventional approach, we do not impose any geometry constraints on the model other than symmetry. Instead, we optimize the distribution of point charges to best describe the "electrostatics" of the water molecule, which is key to many unusual properties of liquid water. The search for the optimal charge distribution is performed in 2D parameter space of key lowest multipole moments of the model, to find best fit to a small set of bulk water properties at room temperature. A virtually exhaustive search is enabled via analytical equations that relate the charge distribution to the multipole moments. The resulting "optimal"...

  3. An Algorithm for Deciding if a Set of Observed Independencies Has a Causal Explanation

    OpenAIRE

    Verma, Tom S.; Pearl, Judea

    2013-01-01

    In a previous paper [Pearl and Verma, 1991] we presented an algorithm for extracting causal influences from independence information, where a causal influence was defined as the existence of a directed arc in all minimal causal models consistent with the data. In this paper we address the question of deciding whether there exists a causal model that explains ALL the observed dependencies and independencies. Formally, given a list M of conditional independence statements, it is required to dec...

  4. A message-passing approach for recurrent-state epidemic models on networks

    CERN Document Server

    Shrestha, Munik; Moore, Cristopher

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) and SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids "echo chamber effects" where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We ...

  5. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  6. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    2015-01-01

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the es

  7. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  8. Reconstructing Causal Biological Networks through Active Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Hyunghoon; Berger, Bonnie; Peng, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Reverse-engineering of biological networks is a central problem in systems biology. The use of intervention data, such as gene knockouts or knockdowns, is typically used for teasing apart causal relationships among genes. Under time or resource constraints, one needs to carefully choose which intervention experiments to carry out. Previous approaches for selecting most informative interventions have largely been focused on discrete Bayesian networks. However, continuous Bayesian networks are ...

  9. Extending Temporal Causal Graph For Diagnosis Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Belouaer, Lamia; Bouzid, Maroua; Mouhoub, Malek

    2009-01-01

    Poster International audience Abductive diagnosis (Brusoni et al. 1998) consists in finding explanations for given observations by using rules of inference based on the causal dependences of the system. Time is important for abductive diagnosis (Hamscher and Davis 1984), (Hamscher, Console, and Kleer 1992). There are few works in litterature handling temporal diagnosis (Kautz 1999). They differ in the expressiveness of the temporal knowledge. We propose a new approach for Temporal Diagn...

  10. Semantic Approach for Service Oriented Requirements Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Bin; Cai, Guang-Jun; Jin, Zhi

    2010-01-01

    International audience Services computing is an interdisciplinary subject that devotes to bridging the gap between business services and IT services. It is recognized that Requirements Engineering is fundamental in implementing the service oriented architecture. It takes traditional RE techniques great efforts to model business requirements and search for the appropriate services. In this paper, we propose an ontological approach to facilitate the service-oriented modeling framework. The g...

  11. "Credit Risk Modeling Approaches"(in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    Takao Kobayashi

    2003-01-01

    This article originates from a speech given by the author in the seminar organized by the Security Analysts Association of Japan (SAAJ) on September fifth of 2003 to commemorate the founding of the Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA) qualification. In the first half, I give a fairly comprehensive, non-quantitative summary of the recent developments of credit risk modeling approaches and techniques. In the latter half, I illustrate a new convertible-bond (CB) pricing model that w...

  12. A flexible approach to guideline modeling.

    OpenAIRE

    Tu, S. W.; Musen, M. A.

    1999-01-01

    We describe a task-oriented approach to guideline modeling that we have been developing in the EON project. We argue that guidelines seek to change behaviors by making statements involving some or all of the following tasks: (1) setting of goals or constraints, (2) making decisions among alternatives, (3) sequencing and synchronization of actions, and (4) interpreting data. Statements about these tasks make assumptions about models of time and of data abstractions, and about degree of uncerta...

  13. Towards a Multiscale Approach to Cybersecurity Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogan, Emilie A.; Hui, Peter SY; Choudhury, Sutanay; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Oler, Kiri J.; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-11-12

    We propose a multiscale approach to modeling cyber networks, with the goal of capturing a view of the network and overall situational awareness with respect to a few key properties--- connectivity, distance, and centrality--- for a system under an active attack. We focus on theoretical and algorithmic foundations of multiscale graphs, coming from an algorithmic perspective, with the goal of modeling cyber system defense as a specific use case scenario. We first define a notion of \\emph{multiscale} graphs, in contrast with their well-studied single-scale counterparts. We develop multiscale analogs of paths and distance metrics. As a simple, motivating example of a common metric, we present a multiscale analog of the all-pairs shortest-path problem, along with a multiscale analog of a well-known algorithm which solves it. From a cyber defense perspective, this metric might be used to model the distance from an attacker's position in the network to a sensitive machine. In addition, we investigate probabilistic models of connectivity. These models exploit the hierarchy to quantify the likelihood that sensitive targets might be reachable from compromised nodes. We believe that our novel multiscale approach to modeling cyber-physical systems will advance several aspects of cyber defense, specifically allowing for a more efficient and agile approach to defending these systems.

  14. Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

  15. A Multiple Model Approach to Modeling Based on LPF Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Input-output data fitting methods are often used for unknown-structure nonlinear system modeling. Based on model-on-demand tactics, a multiple model approach to modeling for nonlinear systems is presented. The basic idea is to find out, from vast historical system input-output data sets, some data sets matching with the current working point, then to develop a local model using Local Polynomial Fitting (LPF) algorithm. With the change of working points, multiple local models are built, which realize the exact modeling for the global system. By comparing to other methods, the simulation results show good performance for its simple, effective and reliable estimation.``

  16. Aspects of causality and unitarity and comments on vortex-like configurations in an Abelian model with a Lorentz-Breaking term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The gauge-invariant Chern-Simons-type Lorentz- and CPT-breaking term is here reassessed and a spin-projector method is adopted to account for the breaking (vector) parameter. Issues like causality, unitarity, spontaneous gauge-symmetry breaking and vortex formation are investigated, and consistency conditions on the external vector are identified. (author)

  17. A Conceptual Modeling Approach for OLAP Personalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigós, Irene; Pardillo, Jesús; Mazón, Jose-Norberto; Trujillo, Juan

    Data warehouses rely on multidimensional models in order to provide decision makers with appropriate structures to intuitively analyze data with OLAP technologies. However, data warehouses may be potentially large and multidimensional structures become increasingly complex to be understood at a glance. Even if a departmental data warehouse (also known as data mart) is used, these structures would be also too complex. As a consequence, acquiring the required information is more costly than expected and decision makers using OLAP tools may get frustrated. In this context, current approaches for data warehouse design are focused on deriving a unique OLAP schema for all analysts from their previously stated information requirements, which is not enough to lighten the complexity of the decision making process. To overcome this drawback, we argue for personalizing multidimensional models for OLAP technologies according to the continuously changing user characteristics, context, requirements and behaviour. In this paper, we present a novel approach to personalizing OLAP systems at the conceptual level based on the underlying multidimensional model of the data warehouse, a user model and a set of personalization rules. The great advantage of our approach is that a personalized OLAP schema is provided for each decision maker contributing to better satisfy their specific analysis needs. Finally, we show the applicability of our approach through a sample scenario based on our CASE tool for data warehouse development.

  18. A causal examination of the effects of confounding factors on multimetric indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald R., Jr.; Grace, James B.; Schweiger, E. William; Mitchell, Brian R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2013-01-01

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) as a means of providing integrative measures of ecosystem condition is becoming widespread. An increasingly recognized problem for the interpretability of MMIs is controlling for the potentially confounding influences of environmental covariates. Most common approaches to handling covariates are based on simple notions of statistical control, leaving the causal implications of covariates and their adjustment unstated. In this paper, we use graphical models to examine some of the potential impacts of environmental covariates on the observed signals between human disturbance and potential response metrics. Using simulations based on various causal networks, we show how environmental covariates can both obscure and exaggerate the effects of human disturbance on individual metrics. We then examine from a causal interpretation standpoint the common practice of adjusting ecological metrics for environmental influences using only the set of sites deemed to be in reference condition. We present and examine the performance of an alternative approach to metric adjustment that uses the whole set of sites and models both environmental and human disturbance effects simultaneously. The findings from our analyses indicate that failing to model and adjust metrics can result in a systematic bias towards those metrics in which environmental covariates function to artificially strengthen the metric–disturbance relationship resulting in MMIs that do not accurately measure impacts of human disturbance. We also find that a “whole-set modeling approach” requires fewer assumptions and is more efficient with the given information than the more commonly applied “reference-set” approach.

  19. Reconstructing Causal Biological Networks through Active Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hyunghoon; Berger, Bonnie; Peng, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Reverse-engineering of biological networks is a central problem in systems biology. The use of intervention data, such as gene knockouts or knockdowns, is typically used for teasing apart causal relationships among genes. Under time or resource constraints, one needs to carefully choose which intervention experiments to carry out. Previous approaches for selecting most informative interventions have largely been focused on discrete Bayesian networks. However, continuous Bayesian networks are of great practical interest, especially in the study of complex biological systems and their quantitative properties. In this work, we present an efficient, information-theoretic active learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs), which serve as important models for gene regulatory networks. In addition to providing linear-algebraic insights unique to GBNs, leading to significant runtime improvements, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on data simulated with GBNs and the DREAM4 network inference challenge data sets. Our method generally leads to faster recovery of underlying network structure and faster convergence to final distribution of confidence scores over candidate graph structures using the full data, in comparison to random selection of intervention experiments. PMID:26930205

  20. Reconstructing Causal Biological Networks through Active Learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunghoon Cho

    Full Text Available Reverse-engineering of biological networks is a central problem in systems biology. The use of intervention data, such as gene knockouts or knockdowns, is typically used for teasing apart causal relationships among genes. Under time or resource constraints, one needs to carefully choose which intervention experiments to carry out. Previous approaches for selecting most informative interventions have largely been focused on discrete Bayesian networks. However, continuous Bayesian networks are of great practical interest, especially in the study of complex biological systems and their quantitative properties. In this work, we present an efficient, information-theoretic active learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs, which serve as important models for gene regulatory networks. In addition to providing linear-algebraic insights unique to GBNs, leading to significant runtime improvements, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on data simulated with GBNs and the DREAM4 network inference challenge data sets. Our method generally leads to faster recovery of underlying network structure and faster convergence to final distribution of confidence scores over candidate graph structures using the full data, in comparison to random selection of intervention experiments.

  1. Compartmental Model Approaches to Groundwater Flow Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compartmental or mixing-cell models have been applied to groundwater flow systems by a number of investigators. Note that the expressions 'compartment', 'cell' and 'mixing cell' are synonymous and used interchangeably in this paper. The compartmental model represents the groundwater system as a network of interconnected cells or compartments through which water and one or more dissolved constituents (tracers) are transported. Within a given cell, perfect or complete mixing of the tracer occurs, although some models relax this constraint. Flow rates of water and tracer between cells can be calculated by: 1) use of a flow model that solves the partial differential equations of groundwater flow 2) calibration with observed tracer data 3) a flow algorithm based on linear or non-linear reservoir theory, or 4) some combination of the preceding. Each cell in the model depicts a region of the hydrogeological system; regions are differentiated based upon their hydrogeological uniformity, the availability of data, the degree of resolution desired, and constraints imposed by numerical solutions. Compartmental models have been used to solve the inverse problem (estimating aquifer properties and recharge boundary conditions) (Adar and Neuman 1986; 1988; Adar et al. 1988; Adar and Sorek 1989; 1990). Other applications have sought to determine groundwater ages and residence times (Campana 1975; 1987; Campana and Simpson 1984; Campana and Mahin 1985; Kirk and Campana 1990), or analyze tracer data and delineate groundwater dynamics (Yurtsever and Payne 1978; 1985; 1986). Other investigators have used them as transport models (Van Ommen 1985; Rao and Hathaway 1989). A recent pioneering approach uses a compartmental model to constrain a finite-difference regional groundwater flow model (Harrington et al. 1999). The three compartmental models described herein represent different approaches and levels of sophistication. The first, a relatively simple model by Campana, is calibrated

  2. A Meta-Frontier Approach for Causal Inference in Productivity Analysis: The Effect of Contract Farming on Sunflower Productivity in Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Henningsen, Arne; Mpeta, Daniel F.; Adem, Anwar S.; Kuzilwa, Joseph A.; Czekaj, Tomasz G.

    2015-01-01

    Due to changes in the global agricultural system and support from various organizations, contract farming has recently been significantly expanded in many developing countries. A considerable body of literature analyses the impact of contract farming on the welfare of smallholders, whereas its impact on efficiency and productivity is mostly overlooked. This study addresses this salient gap by combining the approaches suggested by Bravo-Ureta, Greene, and Solís (Empirical Economics 43:55–72, 2...

  3. ["Karoshi" and causal relationships].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamajima, N

    1992-08-01

    This paper aims to introduce a measure for use by physicians for stating the degree of probable causal relationship for "Karoshi", ie, a sudden death from cerebrovascular diseases or ischemic heart diseases under occupational stresses, as well as to give a brief description for legal procedures associated with worker's compensation and civil trial in Japan. It is a well-used measure in epidemiology, "attributable risk percent (AR%)", which can be applied to describe the extent of contribution to "Karoshi" of the excess occupational burdens the deceased worker was forced to bear. Although several standards such as average occupational burdens for the worker, average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker, burdens in a nonoccupational life, and a complete rest, might be considered for the AR% estimation, the average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker should normally be utilized as a standard for worker's compensation. The adoption of AR% could be helpful for courts to make a consistent judgement whether "Karoshi" cases are compensatable or not. PMID:1392028

  4. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik Hoxha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

  5. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-12

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik HOXHA

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to price, whereas the second argue that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, there is at least some consensus that researchers conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that the relationship may vary through economic cycles. This paper empirically examines the pricewage causal relationship in EMU, by using OLS and VECM analysis, and also it provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the short-run. Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of the estimated VECM and finally model robustness checks indicate that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and variables, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence for the case of EMU.

  6. Multidimensional boron transport modeling in subchannel approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this study is to implement a solute tracking model into the subchannel code CTF for simulations of boric acid transients. Previously, three different boron tracking models have been implemented into CTF and based on the applied analytical and nodal sensitivity studies the Modified Godunov Scheme approach with a physical diffusion term has been selected as the most accurate and best estimate solution. This paper will present the implementation of a multidimensional boron transport modeling with Modified Godunov Scheme within a thermal-hydraulic code based on a subchannel approach. Based on the cross flow mechanism in a multiple-subchannel rod bundle geometry, heat transfer and lateral pressure drop effects will be discussed in deboration and boration case studies. (author)

  7. Heat transfer modeling an inductive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Sidebotham, George

    2015-01-01

    This innovative text emphasizes a "less-is-more" approach to modeling complicated systems such as heat transfer by treating them first as "1-node lumped models" that yield simple closed-form solutions. The author develops numerical techniques for students to obtain more detail, but also trains them to use the techniques only when simpler approaches fail. Covering all essential methods offered in traditional texts, but with a different order, Professor Sidebotham stresses inductive thinking and problem solving as well as a constructive understanding of modern, computer-based practice. Readers learn to develop their own code in the context of the material, rather than just how to use packaged software, offering a deeper, intrinsic grasp behind models of heat transfer. Developed from over twenty-five years of lecture notes to teach students of mechanical and chemical engineering at The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, the book is ideal for students and practitioners across engineering discipl...

  8. A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

    2011-11-01

    The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

  9. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority. PMID:11890317

  10. Causality assessment: A brief insight into practices in pharmaceutical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Purushotham Naidu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Healthcare industry is flooded with multitude of drugs, and the list is increasing day by day. Consumption of medications has enormously increased due to life style changes, having safer drugs is the need of the hour. Regulators and other authorities to have a check have put in stringent regulations and pharmacovigilance system in place. Eventhough there has been increase in adverse drug reactions (ADR reporting in the last decade, causality assessment has been the greater challenge for academicians and even industry. Causality is crucial for risk benefit assessment, particularly when it involves post marketing safety signals. Pharmaceutical companies have put in efforts to have a standardized approach for causality assessment. This article will provide some insight into the approaches for causality assessment from a pharma industry perspective.

  11. A subgrid based approach for morphodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volp, N. D.; van Prooijen, B. C.; Pietrzak, J. D.; Stelling, G. S.

    2016-07-01

    To improve the accuracy and the efficiency of morphodynamic simulations, we present a subgrid based approach for a morphodynamic model. This approach is well suited for areas characterized by sub-critical flow, like in estuaries, coastal areas and in low land rivers. This new method uses a different grid resolution to compute the hydrodynamics and the morphodynamics. The hydrodynamic computations are carried out with a subgrid based, two-dimensional, depth-averaged model. This model uses a coarse computational grid in combination with a subgrid. The subgrid contains high resolution bathymetry and roughness information to compute volumes, friction and advection. The morphodynamic computations are carried out entirely on a high resolution grid, the bed grid. It is key to find a link between the information defined on the different grids in order to guaranty the feedback between the hydrodynamics and the morphodynamics. This link is made by using a new physics-based interpolation method. The method interpolates water levels and velocities from the coarse grid to the high resolution bed grid. The morphodynamic solution improves significantly when using the subgrid based method compared to a full coarse grid approach. The Exner equation is discretised with an upwind method based on the direction of the bed celerity. This ensures a stable solution for the Exner equation. By means of three examples, it is shown that the subgrid based approach offers a significant improvement at a minimal computational cost.

  12. Functional equations with causal operators

    CERN Document Server

    Corduneanu, C

    2003-01-01

    Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

  13. A multiscale modeling approach for biomolecular systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowling, Alan, E-mail: bowling@uta.edu; Haghshenas-Jaryani, Mahdi, E-mail: mahdi.haghshenasjaryani@mavs.uta.edu [The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (United States)

    2015-04-15

    This paper presents a new multiscale molecular dynamic model for investigating the effects of external interactions, such as contact and impact, during stepping and docking of motor proteins and other biomolecular systems. The model retains the mass properties ensuring that the result satisfies Newton’s second law. This idea is presented using a simple particle model to facilitate discussion of the rigid body model; however, the particle model does provide insights into particle dynamics at the nanoscale. The resulting three-dimensional model predicts a significant decrease in the effect of the random forces associated with Brownian motion. This conclusion runs contrary to the widely accepted notion that the motor protein’s movements are primarily the result of thermal effects. This work focuses on the mechanical aspects of protein locomotion; the effect ATP hydrolysis is estimated as internal forces acting on the mechanical model. In addition, the proposed model can be numerically integrated in a reasonable amount of time. Herein, the differences between the motion predicted by the old and new modeling approaches are compared using a simplified model of myosin V.

  14. Connectionist modeling of developmental changes in infancy: approaches, challenges, and contributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yermolayeva, Yevdokiya; Rakison, David H

    2014-01-01

    Connectionist models have been applied to many phenomena in infant development including perseveration, language learning, categorization, and causal perception. In this article, we discuss the benefits of connectionist networks for the advancement of theories of early development. In particular, connectionist models contribute novel testable predictions, instantiate the theorized mechanism of change, and create a unifying framework for understanding infant learning and development. We relate these benefits to the 2 primary approaches used in connectionist models of infant development. The first approach employs changes in neural processing as the basis for developmental changes, and the second employs changes in infants' experiences. The review sheds light on the unique hurdles faced by each approach as well as the challenges and solutions related to both, particularly with respect to the identification of critical model components, parameter specification, availability of empirical data, and model comparison. Finally, we discuss the future of modeling work as it relates to the study of development. We propose that connectionist networks stand to make a powerful contribution to the generation and revision of theories of early child development. Furthermore, insights from connectionist models of early development can improve the understanding of developmental changes throughout the life span. PMID:23477448

  15. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    York eHagmayer

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analysed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  16. A causal dispositional account of fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviño, Vanessa; Nuño de la Rosa, Laura

    2016-09-01

    The notion of fitness is usually equated to reproductive success. However, this actualist approach presents some difficulties, mainly the explanatory circularity problem, which have lead philosophers of biology to offer alternative definitions in which fitness and reproductive success are distinguished. In this paper, we argue  that none of these alternatives is satisfactory and, inspired by Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation, we offer a definition of fitness as a causal dispositional property. We argue that, under this framework, the distinctiveness that biologists usually attribute to fitness-namely, the fact that fitness is something different from both the physical traits of an organism and the number of offspring it leaves-can be explained, and the main problems associated with the concept of fitness can be solved. Firstly, we introduce Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation and present our definition of fitness as a causal disposition. We explain in detail each of the elements involved in our definition, namely: the relationship between fitness and the functional dispositions that compose it, the emergent character of fitness, and the context-sensitivity of fitness. Finally, we explain how fitness and realized fitness, as well as expected and realized fitness are distinguished in our approach to fitness as a causal disposition. PMID:27338570

  17. Consequences of media and Internet use for offline and online network capital and well-being: A causal model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vergeer, M.R.M.; Pelzer, B.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study sets out to identify relations between people's media use, network capital as a resource, and loneliness. Unlike many studies on this topic, this study aimed to test hypotheses on a national sample, and used insights from empirical research and theoretical notions from different research

  18. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    OpenAIRE

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-01-01

    Information technology induced communications (ICTs) have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management ...

  19. The Causality between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries: Panel Cointegration and Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Mehrara, Mohsen

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and GDP in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. A three-variable model is formulated with oil exports as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from oil revenues and economic growth to education in the oil exporting countries. Yet, education does not have any significant effects on GDP in short- and long-run. It ...

  20. Scientific Theories, Models and the Semantic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Décio Krause

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available According to the semantic view, a theory is characterized by a class of models. In this paper, we examine critically some of the assumptions that underlie this approach. First, we recall that models are models of something. Thus we cannot leave completely aside the axiomatization of the theories under consideration, nor can we ignore the metamathematics used to elaborate these models, for changes in the metamathematics often impose restrictions on the resulting models. Second, based on a parallel between van Fraassen’s modal interpretation of quantum mechanics and Skolem’s relativism regarding set-theoretic concepts, we introduce a distinction between relative and absolute concepts in the context of the models of a scientific theory. And we discuss the significance of that distinction. Finally, by focusing on contemporary particle physics, we raise the question: since there is no general accepted unification of the parts of the standard model (namely, QED and QCD, we have no theory, in the usual sense of the term. This poses a difficulty: if there is no theory, how can we speak of its models? What are the latter models of? We conclude by noting that it is unclear that the semantic view can be applied to contemporary physical theories.

  1. Computational modeling approaches in gonadotropin signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Mohammed Akli; Yvinec, Romain; Crépieux, Pascale; Poupon, Anne

    2016-07-01

    Follicle-stimulating hormone and LH play essential roles in animal reproduction. They exert their function through binding to their cognate receptors, which belong to the large family of G protein-coupled receptors. This recognition at the plasma membrane triggers a plethora of cellular events, whose processing and integration ultimately lead to an adapted biological response. Understanding the nature and the kinetics of these events is essential for innovative approaches in drug discovery. The study and manipulation of such complex systems requires the use of computational modeling approaches combined with robust in vitro functional assays for calibration and validation. Modeling brings a detailed understanding of the system and can also be used to understand why existing drugs do not work as well as expected, and how to design more efficient ones. PMID:27165991

  2. On causality of extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect both linear and non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task.

  3. Holographic approach to a minimal higgsless model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following holographic approach, we carry out a low energy effective study of a minimal higgsless model based on SU(2) bulk symmetry broken by boundary conditions, both in flat and warped metric. The holographic procedure turns out to be an useful computation technique to achieve an effective four dimensional formulation of the model taking into account the corrections coming from the extra dimensional sector. This technique is used to compute both oblique and direct contributions to the electroweak parameters in presence of fermions delocalized along the fifth dimension

  4. Continuum modeling an approach through practical examples

    CERN Document Server

    Muntean, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    This book develops continuum modeling skills and approaches the topic from three sides: (1) derivation of global integral laws together with the associated local differential equations, (2) design of constitutive laws and (3) modeling boundary processes. The focus of this presentation lies on many practical examples covering aspects such as coupled flow, diffusion and reaction in porous media or microwave heating of a pizza, as well as traffic issues in bacterial colonies and energy harvesting from geothermal wells. The target audience comprises primarily graduate students in pure and applied mathematics as well as working practitioners in engineering who are faced by nonstandard rheological topics like those typically arising in the food industry.

  5. Interfacial Fluid Mechanics A Mathematical Modeling Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ajaev, Vladimir S

    2012-01-01

    Interfacial Fluid Mechanics: A Mathematical Modeling Approach provides an introduction to mathematical models of viscous flow used in rapidly developing fields of microfluidics and microscale heat transfer. The basic physical effects are first introduced in the context of simple configurations and their relative importance in typical microscale applications is discussed. Then,several configurations of importance to microfluidics, most notably thin films/droplets on substrates and confined bubbles, are discussed in detail.  Topics from current research on electrokinetic phenomena, liquid flow near structured solid surfaces, evaporation/condensation, and surfactant phenomena are discussed in the later chapters. This book also:  Discusses mathematical models in the context of actual applications such as electrowetting Includes unique material on fluid flow near structured surfaces and phase change phenomena Shows readers how to solve modeling problems related to microscale multiphase flows Interfacial Fluid Me...

  6. Exact Approach to Inflationary Universe Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Campo, Sergio

    In this chapter we introduce a study of inflationary universe models that are characterized by a single scalar inflation field . The study of these models is based on two dynamical equations: one corresponding to the Klein-Gordon equation for the inflaton field and the other to a generalized Friedmann equation. After describing the kinematics and dynamics of the models under the Hamilton-Jacobi scheme, we determine in some detail scalar density perturbations and relic gravitational waves. We also introduce the study of inflation under the hierarchy of the slow-roll parameters together with the flow equations. We apply this approach to the modified Friedmann equation that we call the Friedmann-Chern-Simons equation, characterized by F(H) = H^2- α H4, and the brane-world inflationary models expressed by the modified Friedmann equation.

  7. Exposure to Traffic-related Air Pollution During Pregnancy and Term Low Birth Weight: Estimation of Causal Associations in a Semiparametric Model

    OpenAIRE

    Padula, Amy M.; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B.

    2012-01-01

    Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000–2006. The probability ...

  8. The Systemic, Long-run Relation among Gasoline Demand, Gasoline Price, Income, and Vehicle Ownership in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Liddle, Brantley

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes gasoline consumption per capita, income (GDP per capita), gasoline price, and car ownership per capita for a panel of OECD countries by employing panel unit root and cointegration testing, panel Dynamic and Fully Modified OLS estimations, and panel Granger-causality tests. The four variables are determined to be panel I(1) and cointegrated. Estimated long-run and short-run income elasticities are smaller than what typically had been found previously. Lastly, gasoline consu...

  9. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  10. Testing for Plausibly Causal Links Between Parental Bereavement and Child Socio-Emotional and Academic Outcomes: A Propensity-Score Matching Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Leslie D; Lawrence Aber, J

    2016-05-01

    The extant literature on parentally bereaved children has focused almost exclusively on the presence of negative mental health and socio-emotional outcomes among these children. However, findings from this literature have been equivocal. While some authors have found support for the presence of higher levels of internalizing and externalizing problems or mental health problems among this population, others have not found such a relationship. Additionally, study designs in this body of literature have limited both the internal and external validity of the research on parentally bereaved children. The present study seeks to address these issues of internal and external validity by utilizing propensity-score matching analyses to make plausibly causal inferences about the relationship between bereavement and internalizing and externalizing problems among children from a nearly nationally representative sample. This study also extends examination of the influence of parental bereavement to other domains of child development: namely, to academic outcomes. Findings suggest a lack of support for causal relationships between parental bereavement and either socio-emotional or academic outcomes among U.S. children. The plausibility of assumptions necessary to draw causal inferences is discussed. PMID:26340883

  11. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  12. Realist Magic : Objects, Ontology, Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Object-oriented ontology offers a startlingly fresh way to think about causality that takes into account developments in physics since 1900. Causality, argues, Object Oriented Ontology (OOO), is aesthetic. In this book, Timothy Morton explores what it means to say that a thing has come into being, that it is persisting, and that it has ended. Drawing from examples in physics, biology, ecology, art, literature and music, Morton demonstrates the counterintuitive yet elegant explanatory power of...

  13. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  14. Causality detection and turbulence in fusion plasmas

    OpenAIRE

    Van Milligen, B Ph; Birkenmeier, G.; Ramisch, M.; Estrada, T.; Hidalgo, C.; A. Alonso

    2013-01-01

    This work explores the potential of an information-theoretical causality detection method for unraveling the relation between fluctuating variables in complex nonlinear systems. The method is tested on some simple though nonlinear models, and guidelines for the choice of analysis parameters are established. Then, measurements from magnetically confined fusion plasmas are analyzed. The selected data bear relevance to the all-important spontaneous confinement transitions often observed in fusio...

  15. Learning Why Things Change: The Difference-Based Causality Learner

    CERN Document Server

    Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present the Difference- Based Causality Learner (DBCL), an algorithm for learning a class of discrete-time dynamic models that represents all causation across time by means of difference equations driving change in a system. We motivate this representation with real-world mechanical systems and prove DBCL's correctness for learning structure from time series data, an endeavour that is complicated by the existence of latent derivatives that have to be detected. We also prove that, under common assumptions for causal discovery, DBCL will identify the presence or absence of feedback loops, making the model more useful for predicting the effects of manipulating variables when the system is in equilibrium. We argue analytically and show empirically the advantages of DBCL over vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality models as well as modified forms of Bayesian and constraintbased structure discovery algorithms. Finally, we show that our algorithm can discover causal directions of alpha r...

  16. Large-scale Granger causality analysis on resting-state functional MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Adora M.; Abidin, Anas Zainul; Leistritz, Lutz; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    We demonstrate an approach to measure the information flow between each pair of time series in resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data of the human brain and subsequently recover its underlying network structure. By integrating dimensionality reduction into predictive time series modeling, large-scale Granger Causality (lsGC) analysis method can reveal directed information flow suggestive of causal influence at an individual voxel level, unlike other multivariate approaches. This method quantifies the influence each voxel time series has on every other voxel time series in a multivariate sense and hence contains information about the underlying dynamics of the whole system, which can be used to reveal functionally connected networks within the brain. To identify such networks, we perform non-metric network clustering, such as accomplished by the Louvain method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to recover the motor and visual cortex from resting state human brain fMRI data and compare it with the network recovered from a visuomotor stimulation experiment, where the similarity is measured by the Dice Coefficient (DC). The best DC obtained was 0.59 implying a strong agreement between the two networks. In addition, we thoroughly study the effect of dimensionality reduction in lsGC analysis on network recovery. We conclude that our approach is capable of detecting causal influence between time series in a multivariate sense, which can be used to segment functionally connected networks in the resting-state fMRI.

  17. Regularization of turbulence - a comprehensive modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turbulence readily arises in numerous flows in nature and technology. The large number of degrees of freedom of turbulence poses serious challenges to numerical approaches aimed at simulating and controlling such flows. While the Navier-Stokes equations are commonly accepted to precisely describe fluid turbulence, alternative coarsened descriptions need to be developed to cope with the wide range of length and time scales. These coarsened descriptions are known as large-eddy simulations in which one aims to capture only the primary features of a flow, at considerably reduced computational effort. Such coarsening introduces a closure problem that requires additional phenomenological modeling. A systematic approach to the closure problem, know as regularization modeling, will be reviewed. Its application to multiphase turbulent will be illustrated in which a basic regularization principle is enforced to physically consistently approximate momentum and scalar transport. Examples of Leray and LANS-alpha regularization are discussed in some detail, as are compatible numerical strategies. We illustrate regularization modeling to turbulence under the influence of rotation and buoyancy and investigate the accuracy with which particle-laden flow can be represented. A discussion of the numerical and modeling errors incurred will be given on the basis of homogeneous isotropic turbulence.

  18. Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

  19. Capabilities as causal powers

    OpenAIRE

    Martins, Nuno O.

    2006-01-01

    The author argues that Sen's capability approach is primarily a philosophical under-labouring exercise aimed at elaborating certain central economic categories, and that the philosophical and methodological underpinnings of Sen's approach are radically different from those of contemporary welfare economics and mainstream economic practice. Sen's notion of ‘capabilities’ as the potential functionings to achieve well-being is interpreted here as a specification of the ontological category of ‘c...

  20. Kinetic approach in magnetospheric plasma transport modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The need for a kinetic approach in magnetospheric plasma transport problems is reviewed, as are the trends in its recent applications. The need for kinetic modeling is particularly obvious when confronted with the astonishing variety of magnetospheric particle measurements that display compelling energy and pitch angle-related spatial and/or temporal dispersion, and various types of highly non-Maxwellian features in the distribution functions. Global problems in which the kinetic approach has recently been applied include solar wind plasma injection and dispersion over the cusp, substorm particle injection near synchronous orbit, synergistic energization of ionospheric ions into ring current populations by waves and induced electric field-driven convection, and ionospheric outflow from restricted source regions into the magnetosphere. Kinetic modeling can include efforts ranging from test-particle techniques to particle-in-cell studies, and this range is considered here. There are some areas where fluid and kinetic approaches have been combined or patched together, and these will be briefly discussed. 131 references

  1. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  2. Causality, causality, causality: the view of education inputs and outputs from economics

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa Barrow; Cecilia Elena Rouse

    2005-01-01

    Educators and policy makers are increasingly intent on using scientifically-based evidence when making decisions about education policy. Thus, education research today must necessarily be focused on identifying the causal relationships between education inputs and student outcomes. In this paper we discuss methodologies for estimating the causal effect of resources on education outcomes; we also review what we believe to be the best evidence from economics on a few important inputs: spending,...

  3. Reliability of the Granger causality inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How to characterize information flows in physical, biological, and social systems remains a major theoretical challenge. Granger causality (GC) analysis has been widely used to investigate information flow through causal interactions. We address one of the central questions in GC analysis, that is, the reliability of the GC evaluation and its implications for the causal structures extracted by this analysis. Our work reveals that the manner in which a continuous dynamical process is projected or coarse-grained to a discrete process has a profound impact on the reliability of the GC inference, and different sampling may potentially yield completely opposite inferences. This inference hazard is present for both linear and nonlinear processes. We emphasize that there is a hazard of reaching incorrect conclusions about network topologies, even including statistical (such as small-world or scale-free) properties of the networks, when GC analysis is blindly applied to infer the network topology. We demonstrate this using a small-world network for which a drastic loss of small-world attributes occurs in the reconstructed network using the standard GC approach. We further show how to resolve the paradox that the GC analysis seemingly becomes less reliable when more information is incorporated using finer and finer sampling. Finally, we present strategies to overcome these inference artifacts in order to obtain a reliable GC result

  4. A contextual modeling approach for model-based recommender systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández-Tobías, Ignacio; Campos Soto, Pedro G.; Cantador, Iván; Díez, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40643-0_5 Proceedings of 15th Conference of the Spanish Association for Artificial Intelligence, CAEPIA 2013, Madrid, Spain, September 17-20, 2013. In this paper we present a contextual modeling approach for model-based recommender systems that integrates and exploits both user preferences and contextual signals in a common vector space. Differently to previous work, we conduct a user study acquiring ...

  5. A new approach for Bayesian model averaging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN XiangJun; XIE ZhengHui; WANG AiHui; YANG XiaoChun

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a recently proposed statistical method for calibrating forecast ensembles from numerical weather models.However,successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble.Two methods,namely the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms,are widely used for BMA model training.Both methods have their own respective strengths and weaknesses.In this paper,we first modify the BMA log-likelihood function with the aim of removing the additional limitation that requires that the BMA weights add to one,and then use a limited memory quasi-Newtonian algorithm for solving the nonlinear optimization problem,thereby formulating a new approach for BMA (referred to as BMA-BFGS).Several groups of multi-model soil moisture simulation experiments from three land surface models show that the performance of BMA-BFGS is similar to the MCMC method in terms of simulation accuracy,and that both are superior to the EM algorithm.On the other hand,the computational cost of the BMA-BFGS algorithm is substantially less than for MCMC and is almost equivalent to that for EM.

  6. Normalizing the causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula has been derived to evaluate the information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing three types of fundamental mechanisms that govern the marginal entropy change of the flow recipient. A normalized or relative flow measures its importance relative to other mechanisms. In analyzing realistic series, both absolute and relative information flows need to be taken into account, since the normalizers for a pair of reverse flows belong to two different entropy balances; it is quite normal that two identical flows may differ a lot in relative importance in their respective balances. We have reproduced these results with several autoregressive models. We have also shown applications to a climate change problem and a financial analysis problem. For the former, reconfirmed is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole as ...

  7. Modeling Negotiation by a Paticipatory Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torii, Daisuke; Ishida, Toru; Bousquet, François

    In a participatory approach by social scientists, role playing games (RPG) are effectively used to understand real thinking and behavior of stakeholders, but RPG is not sufficient to handle a dynamic process like negotiation. In this study, a participatory simulation where user-controlled avatars and autonomous agents coexist is introduced to the participatory approach for modeling negotiation. To establish a modeling methodology of negotiation, we have tackled the following two issues. First, for enabling domain experts to concentrate interaction design for participatory simulation, we have adopted the architecture in which an interaction layer controls agents and have defined three types of interaction descriptions (interaction protocol, interaction scenario and avatar control scenario) to be described. Second, for enabling domain experts and stakeholders to capitalize on participatory simulation, we have established a four-step process for acquiring negotiation model: 1) surveys and interviews to stakeholders, 2) RPG, 3) interaction design, and 4) participatory simulation. Finally, we discussed our methodology through a case study of agricultural economics in the northeast Thailand.

  8. Beyond the Standard Model: A Noncommutative Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Stephan, Christoph A

    2009-01-01

    During the last two decades Alain Connes developed Noncommutative Geometry (NCG), which allows to unify two of the basic theories of modern physics: General Relativity (GR) and the Standard Model (SM) of Particle Physics as classical field theories. In the noncommutative framework the Higgs boson, which had previously to be put in by hand, and many of the ad hoc features of the standard model appear in a natural way. The aim of this presentation is to motivate this unification from basic physical principles and to give a flavour of its derivation. One basic prediction of the noncommutative approach to the SM is that the mass of the Higgs Boson should be of the order of 170 GeV if one assumes the Big Desert. This mass range is with reasonable probability excluded by the Tevatron and therefore it is interesting to investigate models beyond the SM that are compatible with NCG. Going beyond the SM is highly non-trivial within the NCG approach but possible extensions have been found and provide for phenomenologica...

  9. A multiscale approach for modeling crystalline solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuitiño, Alberto M.; Stainier, Laurent; Wang, Guofeng; Strachan, Alejandro; Çağin, Tahir; Goddard, William A.; Ortiz, Michael

    2001-05-01

    In this paper we present a modeling approach to bridge the atomistic with macroscopic scales in crystalline materials. The methodology combines identification and modeling of the controlling unit processes at microscopic level with the direct atomistic determination of fundamental material properties. These properties are computed using a many body Force Field derived from ab initio quantum-mechanical calculations. This approach is exercised to describe the mechanical response of high-purity Tantalum single crystals, including the effect of temperature and strain-rate on the hardening rate. The resulting atomistically informed model is found to capture salient features of the behavior of these crystals such as: the dependence of the initial yield point on temperature and strain rate; the presence of a marked stage I of easy glide, specially at low temperatures and high strain rates; the sharp onset of stage II hardening and its tendency to shift towards lower strains, and eventually disappear, as the temperature increases or the strain rate decreases; the parabolic stage II hardening at low strain rates or high temperatures; the stage II softening at high strain rates or low temperatures; the trend towards saturation at high strains; the temperature and strain-rate dependence of the saturation stress; and the orientation dependence of the hardening rate.

  10. Reichenbach on causality in 1923: Scientific inference, coordination, and confirmation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padovani, Flavia

    2015-10-01

    In The Theory of Relativity and A Priori Knowledge (1920b), Reichenbach developed an original account of cognition as coordination of formal structures to empirical ones. One of the most salient features of this account is that it is explicitly not a top-down type of coordination, and in fact it is crucially "directed" by the empirical side. Reichenbach called this feature "the mutuality of coordination" but, in that work, did not elaborate sufficiently on how this is supposed to work. In a paper that he wrote less than two years afterwards (but that he published only in 1932), "The Principle of Causality and the Possibility of its Empirical Confirmation" (1923/1932), he described what seems to be a model for this idea, now within an analysis of causality that results in an account of scientific inference. Recent reassessments of his early proposal do not seem to capture the extent of Reichenbach's original worries. The present paper analyses Reichenbach's early account and suggests a new way to look at his early work. According to it, we perform measurements, individuate parameters, collect and analyse data, by using a "constructive" approach, such as the one with which we formulate and test hypotheses, which paradigmatically requires some simplicity assumptions. Reichenbach's attempt to account for all these aspects in 1923 was obviously limited and naive in many ways, but it shows that, in his view, there were multiple ways in which the idea of "constitution" is embodied in scientific practice. PMID:26386525

  11. SIGNOR: a database of causal relationships between biological entities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfetto, Livia; Briganti, Leonardo; Calderone, Alberto; Perpetuini, Andrea Cerquone; Iannuccelli, Marta; Langone, Francesca; Licata, Luana; Marinkovic, Milica; Mattioni, Anna; Pavlidou, Theodora; Peluso, Daniele; Petrilli, Lucia Lisa; Pirrò, Stefano; Posca, Daniela; Santonico, Elena; Silvestri, Alessandra; Spada, Filomena; Castagnoli, Luisa; Cesareni, Gianni

    2016-01-01

    Assembly of large biochemical networks can be achieved by confronting new cell-specific experimental data with an interaction subspace constrained by prior literature evidence. The SIGnaling Network Open Resource, SIGNOR (available on line at http://signor.uniroma2.it), was developed to support such a strategy by providing a scaffold of prior experimental evidence of causal relationships between biological entities. The core of SIGNOR is a collection of approximately 12,000 manually-annotated causal relationships between over 2800 human proteins participating in signal transduction. Other entities annotated in SIGNOR are complexes, chemicals, phenotypes and stimuli. The information captured in SIGNOR can be represented as a signed directed graph illustrating the activation/inactivation relationships between signalling entities. Each entry is associated to the post-translational modifications that cause the activation/inactivation of the target proteins. More than 4900 modified residues causing a change in protein concentration or activity have been curated and linked to the modifying enzymes (about 351 human kinases and 94 phosphatases). Additional modifications such as ubiquitinations, sumoylations, acetylations and their effect on the modified target proteins are also annotated. This wealth of structured information can support experimental approaches based on multi-parametric analysis of cell systems after physiological or pathological perturbations and to assemble large logic models. PMID:26467481

  12. Fermion localization and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The velocity of a fermion (neutrino) propagation from its source to its detector is investigated. It is shown that a simple approach to the problem in terms of the quantum packet spreading is not applicable because the fermion cannot be localized in a bounded space region. Another approach is elaborated which uses relativistic quantum field description of the fermion source and detector. It is demonstrated that velocity of the fermion propagation does not exceed the knight velocity C within the precision of the source and detector localization. 41 refs.; 1 fig

  13. Polyhedral approach to statistical learning graphical models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan; Haws, D.; Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.

    Singapore : World Scientific Press, 2012, s. 346-372. ISBN 978-981-4383-45-5. [The 2nd CREST-SBM International Conference "Harmony of Groebner Bases and the Modern Industrial Society". Osaka (JP), 28.06.2012-2.07.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Bayesian network stucture * standard imset * characteristic imset * polyhedral geometry Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-polyhedral approach to statistical learning graphical models.pdf

  14. Modeling in transport phenomena a conceptual approach

    CERN Document Server

    Tosun, Ismail

    2007-01-01

    Modeling in Transport Phenomena, Second Edition presents and clearly explains with example problems the basic concepts and their applications to fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemical reaction engineering and thermodynamics. A balanced approach is presented between analysis and synthesis, students will understand how to use the solution in engineering analysis. Systematic derivations of the equations and the physical significance of each term are given in detail, for students to easily understand and follow up the material. There is a strong incentive in science and engineering to

  15. Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach --- Part 1: Causes

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Y. Halpern; Pearl, Judea

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations to model counterfactuals.We show that the definitions yield a plausible and elegant account ofcausation that handles well examples which have caused problems forother definitions and resolves major difficulties in the traditionalaccount. In a companion paper, we show how the definition of causality can beused to give an elegant definition of (causal) explanation.

  16. Temporal expression profiling identifies pathways mediating effect of causal variant on phenotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saumya Gupta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Even with identification of multiple causal genetic variants for common human diseases, understanding the molecular processes mediating the causal variants' effect on the disease remains a challenge. This understanding is crucial for the development of therapeutic strategies to prevent and treat disease. While static profiling of gene expression is primarily used to get insights into the biological bases of diseases, it makes differentiating the causative from the correlative effects difficult, as the dynamics of the underlying biological processes are not monitored. Using yeast as a model, we studied genome-wide gene expression dynamics in the presence of a causal variant as the sole genetic determinant, and performed allele-specific functional validation to delineate the causal effects of the genetic variant on the phenotype. Here, we characterized the precise genetic effects of a functional MKT1 allelic variant in sporulation efficiency variation. A mathematical model describing meiotic landmark events and conditional activation of MKT1 expression during sporulation specified an early meiotic role of this variant. By analyzing the early meiotic genome-wide transcriptional response, we demonstrate an MKT1-dependent role of novel modulators, namely, RTG1/3, regulators of mitochondrial retrograde signaling, and DAL82, regulator of nitrogen starvation, in additively effecting sporulation efficiency. In the presence of functional MKT1 allele, better respiration during early sporulation was observed, which was dependent on the mitochondrial retrograde regulator, RTG3. Furthermore, our approach showed that MKT1 contributes to sporulation independent of Puf3, an RNA-binding protein that steady-state transcription profiling studies have suggested to mediate MKT1-pleiotropic effects during mitotic growth. These results uncover interesting regulatory links between meiosis and mitochondrial retrograde signaling. In this study, we highlight the advantage

  17. Modeling for fairness: A Rawlsian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, Sven; Zwart, Sjoerd D

    2014-06-01

    In this paper we introduce the overlapping design consensus for the construction of models in design and the related value judgments. The overlapping design consensus is inspired by Rawls' overlapping consensus. The overlapping design consensus is a well-informed, mutual agreement among all stakeholders based on fairness. Fairness is respected if all stakeholders' interests are given due and equal attention. For reaching such fair agreement, we apply Rawls' original position and reflective equilibrium to modeling. We argue that by striving for the original position, stakeholders expel invalid arguments, hierarchies, unwarranted beliefs, and bargaining effects from influencing the consensus. The reflective equilibrium requires that stakeholders' beliefs cohere with the final agreement and its justification. Therefore, the overlapping design consensus is not only an agreement to decisions, as most other stakeholder approaches, it is also an agreement to their justification and that this justification is consistent with each stakeholders' beliefs. For supporting fairness, we argue that fairness qualifies as a maxim in modeling. We furthermore distinguish values embedded in a model from values that are implied by its context of application. Finally, we conclude that for reaching an overlapping design consensus communication about properties of and values related to a model is required. PMID:25051870

  18. Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper introduces an integrated framework and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety monitoring of complex socio-technical systems. An overview of the three-layer hybrid causal logic (HCL) modeling approach and corresponding algorithms, implemented in the Trilith software platform, are provided. The HCL approach enhances typical PRA methods by quantitatively including the influence of soft causal factors introduced by human and organizational aspects of a system. The framework allows different modeling techniques to be used for different aspects of the socio-technical system. The HCL approach combines the power of traditional event sequence diagram (ESD)event tree (ET) and fault tree (FT) techniques for modeling deterministic causal paths, with the flexibility of Bayesian belief networks for modeling non-deterministic cause-effect relationships among system elements (suitable for modeling human and organizational influences). Trilith enables analysts to construct HCL models and perform quantitative risk assessment and management of complex systems. The risk management capabilities included are HCL-based risk importance measures, hazard identification and ranking, precursor analysis, safety indicator monitoring, and root cause analysis. This paper describes the capabilities of the Trilith platform and power of the HCL algorithm by use of example risk models for a type of aviation accident (aircraft taking off from the wrong runway).

  19. Causality between Electricity Consumption & Economic growth : Empirical Evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Geetu; Sahu, Naresh Chandra

    2009-01-01

    In this study ,an attempt has been made to investigate causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in India by adopting Granger Engel causality model for 1960-2006 period .Test results shows that electricity consumption has positive effect on economic growth. The paper support for the reforms in power sector and indicates that electricity act as a catalyst in realizing various social and economic goals.

  20. A Tool for Qualitative Causal Reasoning On Complex Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Tahar Guerram; Ramdane Maamri; Zaidi Sahnoun

    2010-01-01

    A cognitive map, also called a mental map, is a representation and reasoning model on causal knowledge. It is a directed, labeled and cyclic graph whose nodes represent causes or effects and whose arcs represent causal relations between these nodes such as "increases", "decreases", "supports", and "disadvantages". A cognitive map represents beliefs (knowledge) which we lay out about a given domain of discourse and is useful as a means of decision making support. There are several types of cog...

  1. The tax-spend nexus in Nigeria: Evidence from Nonlinear Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Olalekan Bashir Aworinde

    2013-01-01

    The study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between the tax-spend nexus in Nigeria for the periods 1961-1992, 1993-2012 and1961-2012. Employing a nonparametric causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) as well as the parametric causality test using the VAR model, results show that there is evidence of uni-directional linear causality from government revenue to government expenditure in the first period and uni-directional nonlinear causality from government revenue to go...

  2. Modeling Social Annotation: a Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Plangprasopchok, Anon

    2008-01-01

    Collaborative tagging systems, such as del.icio.us, CiteULike, and others, allow users to annotate objects, e.g., Web pages or scientific papers, with descriptive labels called tags. The social annotations, contributed by thousands of users, can potentially be used to infer categorical knowledge, classify documents or recommend new relevant information. Traditional text inference methods do not make best use of socially-generated data, since they do not take into account variations in individual users' perspectives and vocabulary. In a previous work, we introduced a simple probabilistic model that takes interests of individual annotators into account in order to find hidden topics of annotated objects. Unfortunately, our proposed approach had a number of shortcomings, including overfitting, local maxima and the requirement to specify values for some parameters. In this paper we address these shortcomings in two ways. First, we extend the model to a fully Bayesian framework. Second, we describe an infinite ver...

  3. Nuclear level density: Shell-model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen'kov, Roman; Zelevinsky, Vladimir

    2016-06-01

    Knowledge of the nuclear level density is necessary for understanding various reactions, including those in the stellar environment. Usually the combinatorics of a Fermi gas plus pairing is used for finding the level density. Recently a practical algorithm avoiding diagonalization of huge matrices was developed for calculating the density of many-body nuclear energy levels with certain quantum numbers for a full shell-model Hamiltonian. The underlying physics is that of quantum chaos and intrinsic thermalization in a closed system of interacting particles. We briefly explain this algorithm and, when possible, demonstrate the agreement of the results with those derived from exact diagonalization. The resulting level density is much smoother than that coming from conventional mean-field combinatorics. We study the role of various components of residual interactions in the process of thermalization, stressing the influence of incoherent collision-like processes. The shell-model results for the traditionally used parameters are also compared with standard phenomenological approaches.

  4. Pedagogic process modeling: Humanistic-integrative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boritko Nikolaj M.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with some current problems of modeling the dynamics of the subject-features development of the individual. The term "process" is considered in the context of the humanistic-integrative approach, in which the principles of self education are regarded as criteria for efficient pedagogic activity. Four basic characteristics of the pedagogic process are pointed out: intentionality reflects logicality and regularity of the development of the process; discreteness (stageability in dicates qualitative stages through which the pedagogic phenomenon passes; nonlinearity explains the crisis character of pedagogic processes and reveals inner factors of self-development; situationality requires a selection of pedagogic conditions in accordance with the inner factors, which would enable steering the pedagogic process. Offered are two steps for singling out a particular stage and the algorithm for developing an integrative model for it. The suggested conclusions might be of use for further theoretic research, analyses of educational practices and for realistic predicting of pedagogical phenomena. .

  5. Combinatorial Approach to Modeling Quantum Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornyak, Vladimir V.

    2016-02-01

    Using the fact that any linear representation of a group can be embedded into permutations, we propose a constructive description of quantum behavior that provides, in particular, a natural explanation of the appearance of complex numbers and unitarity in the formalism of the quantum mechanics. In our approach, the quantum behavior can be explained by the fundamental impossibility to trace the identity of the indistinguishable objects in their evolution. Any observation only provides information about the invariant relations between such objects. The trajectory of a quantum system is a sequence of unitary evolutions interspersed with observations—non-unitary projections. We suggest a scheme to construct combinatorial models of quantum evolution. The principle of selection of the most likely trajectories in such models via the large numbers approximation leads in the continuum limit to the principle of least action with the appropriate Lagrangians and deterministic evolution equations

  6. When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schomaker

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria, as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3 or CD4 percentage (CD4% <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS: ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1, with a median (first; third quartile CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3 (356; 895 and median (first; third quartile CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%. The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5 (no ART to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5% (ART irrespective of CD4 value. Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3 or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5% and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5% after 3 y, respectively. The analysis

  7. Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulecky, Donald C

    2007-10-01

    Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

  8. Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andres; Hall, Jim W.; French, Jon; Sutherland, James; van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2016-03-01

    As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a

  9. The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate. A Ardl Causality Analysis for the Case Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between the shadow economy (SE and unemployment rates (both registered and ILO for the case of Romania using Pesaran et al.(2001 bounds tests approach for cointegration. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated using the currency demand approach based on VECM models, stating that its size is decreasing over the analyzed period, from 36.5% at the end of 2000 to about 31.5% of real GDP at the middle of 2010. To investigate the long-run causal linkages and short-run dynamics between shadow economy and unemployment rate, ARDL cointegration approach is applied. Cointegration test results shows that in short-run both ILO and registered unemployment rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the size of the shadow economy, while in the long-run the unemployment rates have a positive effect on shadow economy. The ARDL causality results revealed the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality that runs from unemployment rates (registered or ILO to shadow economy. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the both causal relationships.

  10. Commutative deformations of general relativity: nonlocality, causality, and dark matter

    CERN Document Server

    de Vegvar, P G N

    2016-01-01

    Hopf algebra methods are applied to study Drinfeld twists of (3+1)-diffeomorphisms and deformed general relativity on \\emph{commutative} manifolds. A classical nonlocality length scale is produced above which standard light cone causality emerges. We introduce a sector of matter fields to generate selfconsistent Abelian Drinfeld twists in a background independent manner and study their discrete and gauge symmetries. They naturally give rise to dark matter candidates, possibly including ground state condensates. First order deformed Maxwell equations are derived and yield negligible cosmological dispersion and produce a propagation horizon only for photons approaching Planck energies. This model incorporates dark matter without any appeal to extra dimensions, supersymmetry, strings, branes, mirror worlds, or modifications of Newtonian dynamics.

  11. Multicomponent Equilibrium Models for Testing Geothermometry Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carl D. Palmer; Robert W. Smith; Travis L. McLing

    2013-02-01

    Geothermometry is an important tool for estimating deep reservoir temperature from the geochemical composition of shallower and cooler waters. The underlying assumption of geothermometry is that the waters collected from shallow wells and seeps maintain a chemical signature that reflects equilibrium in the deeper reservoir. Many of the geothermometers used in practice are based on correlation between water temperatures and composition or using thermodynamic calculations based a subset (typically silica, cations or cation ratios) of the dissolved constituents. An alternative approach is to use complete water compositions and equilibrium geochemical modeling to calculate the degree of disequilibrium (saturation index) for large number of potential reservoir minerals as a function of temperature. We have constructed several “forward” geochemical models using The Geochemist’s Workbench to simulate the change in chemical composition of reservoir fluids as they migrate toward the surface. These models explicitly account for the formation (mass and composition) of a steam phase and equilibrium partitioning of volatile components (e.g., CO2, H2S, and H2) into the steam as a result of pressure decreases associated with upward fluid migration from depth. We use the synthetic data generated from these simulations to determine the advantages and limitations of various geothermometry and optimization approaches for estimating the likely conditions (e.g., temperature, pCO2) to which the water was exposed in the deep subsurface. We demonstrate the magnitude of errors that can result from boiling, loss of volatiles, and analytical error from sampling and instrumental analysis. The estimated reservoir temperatures for these scenarios are also compared to conventional geothermometers. These results can help improve estimation of geothermal resource temperature during exploration and early development.

  12. Cohomology with causally restricted supports

    CERN Document Server

    Khavkine, Igor

    2014-01-01

    De Rham cohomology with spacelike compact and timelike compact supports has recently been noticed to be of importance for understanding the structure of classical and quantum field theories on curved spacetimes. We compute these cohomology groups for globally hyperbolic spacetimes in terms of their standard de Rham cohomologies. The calculation exploits the fact that the de Rham-d'Alambert wave operator can be extended to a chain map that is homotopic to zero and that its causal Green function fits into a convenient exact sequence. This method extends also to the Calabi (or Killing-Riemann-Bianchi) complex and possibly other differential complexes. We also discuss generalized causal structures and functoriality.

  13. Comparison Analysis: Granger Causality and New Causality and Their Applications to Motor Imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Sanqing; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Jianhai; Kong, Wanzeng; Cao, Yu; Kozma, Robert

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we first point out a fatal drawback that the widely used Granger causality (GC) needs to estimate the autoregressive model, which is equivalent to taking a series of backward recursive operations which are infeasible in many irreversible chemical reaction models. Thus, new causality (NC) proposed by Hu et al. (2011) is theoretically shown to be more sensitive to reveal true causality than GC. We then apply GC and NC to motor imagery (MI) which is an important mental process in cognitive neuroscience and psychology and has received growing attention for a long time. We study causality flow during MI using scalp electroencephalograms from nine subjects in Brain-computer interface competition IV held in 2008. We are interested in three regions: Cz (central area of the cerebral cortex), C3 (left area of the cerebral cortex), and C4 (right area of the cerebral cortex) which are considered to be optimal locations for recognizing MI states in the literature. Our results show that: 1) there is strong directional connectivity from Cz to C3/C4 during left- and right-hand MIs based on GC and NC; 2) during left-hand MI, there is directional connectivity from C4 to C3 based on GC and NC; 3) during right-hand MI, there is strong directional connectivity from C3 to C4 which is much clearly revealed by NC than by GC, i.e., NC largely improves the classification rate; and 4) NC is demonstrated to be much more sensitive to reveal causal influence between different brain regions than GC. PMID:26099149

  14. Causal association rule mining methods based on fuzzy state description

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liang Kaijian; Liang Quan; Yang Bingru

    2006-01-01

    Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description framework, the generalized cell Automation that can synthetically process fuzzy indeterminacy and random indeterminacy and generalized inductive logic causal model is brought forward. On this basis, a kind of the new method that can discover causal association rules is provded. According to the causal information of standard sample space and commonly sample space,through constructing its state (abnormality) relation matrix, causal association rules can be gained by using inductive reasoning mechanism. The estimate of this algorithm complexity is given,and its validity is proved through case.

  15. Globally conditioned Granger causality in brain-brain and brain-heart interactions: a combined heart rate variability/ultra-high-field (7 T) functional magnetic resonance imaging study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggento, Andrea; Bianciardi, Marta; Passamonti, Luca; Wald, Lawrence L; Guerrisi, Maria; Barbieri, Riccardo; Toschi, Nicola

    2016-05-13

    The causal, directed interactions between brain regions at rest (brain-brain networks) and between resting-state brain activity and autonomic nervous system (ANS) outflow (brain-heart links) have not been completely elucidated. We collected 7 T resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data with simultaneous respiration and heartbeat recordings in nine healthy volunteers to investigate (i) the causal interactions between cortical and subcortical brain regions at rest and (ii) the causal interactions between resting-state brain activity and the ANS as quantified through a probabilistic, point-process-based heartbeat model which generates dynamical estimates for sympathetic and parasympathetic activity as well as sympathovagal balance. Given the high amount of information shared between brain-derived signals, we compared the results of traditional bivariate Granger causality (GC) with a globally conditioned approach which evaluated the additional influence of each brain region on the causal target while factoring out effects concomitantly mediated by other brain regions. The bivariate approach resulted in a large number of possibly spurious causal brain-brain links, while, using the globally conditioned approach, we demonstrated the existence of significant selective causal links between cortical/subcortical brain regions and sympathetic and parasympathetic modulation as well as sympathovagal balance. In particular, we demonstrated a causal role of the amygdala, hypothalamus, brainstem and, among others, medial, middle and superior frontal gyri, superior temporal pole, paracentral lobule and cerebellar regions in modulating the so-called central autonomic network (CAN). In summary, we show that, provided proper conditioning is employed to eliminate spurious causalities, ultra-high-field functional imaging coupled with physiological signal acquisition and GC analysis is able to quantify directed brain-brain and brain-heart interactions reflecting

  16. Stochastic model updating utilizing Bayesian approach and Gaussian process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Hua-Ping; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2016-03-01

    Stochastic model updating (SMU) has been increasingly applied in quantifying structural parameter uncertainty from responses variability. SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification refers to the problem of inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ), which is a nontrivial task. Inverse problem solved with optimization usually brings about the issues of gradient computation, ill-conditionedness, and non-uniqueness. Moreover, the uncertainty present in response makes the inverse problem more complicated. In this study, Bayesian approach is adopted in SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification. The prominent strength of Bayesian approach for IUQ problem is that it solves IUQ problem in a straightforward manner, which enables it to avoid the previous issues. However, when applied to engineering structures that are modeled with a high-resolution finite element model (FEM), Bayesian approach is still computationally expensive since the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference requires a large number of model runs to guarantee the convergence. Herein we reduce computational cost in two aspects. On the one hand, the fast-running Gaussian process model (GPM) is utilized to approximate the time-consuming high-resolution FEM. On the other hand, the advanced MCMC method using delayed rejection adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm that incorporates local adaptive strategy with global adaptive strategy is employed for Bayesian inference. In addition, we propose the use of the powerful variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in parameter selection to exclude non-influential parameters from calibration parameters, which yields a reduced-order model and thus further alleviates the computational burden. A simulated aluminum plate and a real-world complex cable-stayed pedestrian bridge are presented to illustrate the proposed framework and verify its feasibility.

  17. Permafrost, climate, and change: predictive modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    Predicted by GCMs enhanced warming of the Arctic will lead to discernible impacts on permafrost and northern environment. Mathematical models of different complexity forced by scenarios of climate change may be used to predict such changes. Permafrost models that are currently in use may be divided into four groups: index-based models (e.g. frost index model, N-factor model); models of intermediate complexity based on equilibrium simplified solution of the Stephan problem ("Koudriavtcev's" model and its modifications), and full-scale comprehensive dynamical models. New approach of stochastic modelling came into existence recently and has good prospects for the future. Important task is to compare the ability of the models that are different in complexity, concept, and input data requirements to capture the major impacts of changing climate on permafrost. A progressive increase in the depth of seasonal thawing (often referred to as the active-layer thickness, ALT) could be a relatively short-term reaction to climatic warming. At regional and local scales, it may produce substantial effects on vegetation, soil hydrology and runoff, as the water storage capacity of near-surface permafrost will be changed. Growing public concerns are associated with the impacts that warming of permafrost may have on engineered infrastructure built upon it. At the global scale, increase of ALT could facilitate further climatic change if more greenhouse gases are released when the upper layer of the permafrost thaws. Since dynamic permafrost models require complete set of forcing data that is not readily available on the circumpolar scale, they could be used most effectively in regional studies, while models of intermediate complexity are currently best tools for the circumpolar assessments. Set of five transient scenarios of climate change for the period 1980 - 2100 has been constructed using outputs from GFDL, NCAR, CCC, HadCM, and ECHAM-4 models. These GCMs were selected in the course

  18. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Sean G.; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N.

    2008-01-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study (study 2). Although participants did not engage in explicit evaluation of the faces, the amygdala response changed as a function of face trustworthiness. An area in the right amygdala showed a negative linear response—as the untrustworthiness of faces increased so did the amygdala response. Areas in the left and right putamen, the latter area extended into the anterior insula, showed a similar negative linear response. The response in the left amygdala was quadratic—strongest for faces on both extremes of the trustworthiness dimension. The medial prefrontal cortex and precuneus also showed a quadratic response, but their response was strongest to faces in the middle range of the trustworthiness dimension. PMID:19015102

  19. Implementing Ethics Auditing Model: New Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merle Rihma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are to test how does enhanced ethics audit model as a new tool for management in Estonian companies work and to investigate through ethics audit model the hidden ethical risks in information technology which occur in everyday work and may be of harm to stakeholders’ interests. Carrying out ethics audit requires the diversity of research methods. Therefore throughout the research the authors took into account triangulation method. The research was conducted through qualitative approach and an analysis on a case study, which also included interviews, questionnaires and observations. Reason why authors audited ethical aspects of company´s info technology field is due to the fact that info technology as such is an area which is not handled in any CSR reports but may cause serious ethical risks to company ́s stakeholders. The article concludes with suggesting an extension of the ethics audit model for evaluating ethical risks and for companies to help to raise employees’- awareness about safe internet using and responsibility towards protecting the organization’s information technology and to prevent ethical and moral risks occurring.

  20. Modeling tourism flows through gravity models: A quantile regression approach

    OpenAIRE

    Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Morelli, Mariangela

    2015-01-01

    Gravity models are widely used to study tourism flows. The peculiarities of the segmented international demand for agritourism in Italy is examined by means of novel approach: a panel data quantile regression. We characterize the international demand for Italian agritourism with a large dataset, by considering data of thirty-three countries of origin, from 1998 to 2010. Distance and income are major determinants, but we also found that mutual agreements and high urbanization rates in countrie...

  1. A Causal Rhythm Grouping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karl Kristoffer

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a method to identify segment boundaries in music. The method is based on a multi-step model; first a features is measured from the audio, then a measure of rhythm is calculated from the feature, the diagonal of a self-similarity matrix is calculated, and finally the segment...

  2. Approaches and models of intercultural education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván Manuel Sánchez Fontalvo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Needed to be aware of the need to build an intercultural society, awareness must be assumed in all social spheres, where stands the role play education. A role of transcendental, since it must promote educational spaces to form people with virtues and powers that allow them to live together / as in multicultural contexts and social diversities (sometimes uneven in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, and foster the development of feelings of civic belonging shared before the neighborhood, city, region and country, allowing them concern and critical judgement to marginalization, poverty, misery and inequitable distribution of wealth, causes of structural violence, but at the same time, wanting to work for the welfare and transformation of these scenarios. Since these budgets, it is important to know the approaches and models of intercultural education that have been developed so far, analysing their impact on the contexts educational where apply.   

  3. Drawing Causal Inferences Using Propensity Scores: A Practical Guide for Community Psychologists

    OpenAIRE

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Julia E Moore; Butera, Nicole M.

    2013-01-01

    Confounding present in observational data impede community psychologists’ ability to draw causal inferences. This paper describes propensity score methods as a conceptually straightforward approach to drawing causal inferences from observational data. A step-by-step demonstration of three propensity score methods – weighting, matching, and subclassification – is presented in the context of an empirical examination of the causal effect of preschool experiences (Head Start vs. parental care) on...

  4. Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation. (author)

  5. Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation.

  6. Granger Causality and Unit Roots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges...

  7. Causal feedbacks in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.; Brovkin, V.; Lenton, T.M.; Ye, H.; Deyle, E.; Sugihara, G.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical association between temperature and greenhouse gases over glacial cycles is well documented1, but causality behind this correlation remains difficult to extract directly from the data. A time lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature—originally thought to hint at a driving role for tem

  8. Modelling Approach In Islamic Architectural Designs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhaimi Salleh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Architectural designs contribute as one of the main factors that should be considered in minimizing negative impacts in planning and structural development in buildings such as in mosques. In this paper, the ergonomics perspective is revisited which hence focuses on the conditional factors involving organisational, psychological, social and population as a whole. This paper tries to highlight the functional and architectural integration with ecstatic elements in the form of decorative and ornamental outlay as well as incorporating the building structure such as wall, domes and gates. This paper further focuses the mathematical aspects of the architectural designs such as polar equations and the golden ratio. These designs are modelled into mathematical equations of various forms, while the golden ratio in mosque is verified using two techniques namely, the geometric construction and the numerical method. The exemplary designs are taken from theSabah Bandaraya Mosque in Likas, Kota Kinabalu and the Sarawak State Mosque in Kuching,while the Universiti Malaysia Sabah Mosque is used for the Golden Ratio. Results show thatIslamic architectural buildings and designs have long had mathematical concepts and techniques underlying its foundation, hence, a modelling approach is needed to rejuvenate these Islamic designs.

  9. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    OpenAIRE

    N. Kayastha

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of models. One of multi modelling approaches called "committee modelling" is one of the topics in part of this study. Special attention is given to the so-called “fuzzy committee” approach to hydrological...

  10. Causal quantum theory and the collapse locality loophole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Causal quantum theory is an umbrella term for ordinary quantum theory modified by two hypotheses: state vector reduction is a well-defined process, and strict local causality applies. The first of these holds in some versions of Copenhagen quantum theory and need not necessarily imply practically testable deviations from ordinary quantum theory. The second implies that measurement events which are spacelike separated have no nonlocal correlations. To test this prediction, which sharply differs from standard quantum theory, requires a precise definition of state vector reduction. Formally speaking, any precise version of causal quantum theory defines a local hidden variable theory. However, causal quantum theory is most naturally seen as a variant of standard quantum theory. For that reason it seems a more serious rival to standard quantum theory than local hidden variable models relying on the locality or detector efficiency loopholes. Some plausible versions of causal quantum theory are not refuted by any Bell experiments to date, nor is it evident that they are inconsistent with other experiments. They evade refutation via a neglected loophole in Bell experiments--the collapse locality loophole--which exists because of the possible time lag between a particle entering a measurement device and a collapse taking place. Fairly definitive tests of causal versus standard quantum theory could be made by observing entangled particles separated by ≅0.1 light seconds

  11. A study in cosmology and causal thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The especial relativity of thermodynamic theories for reversible and irreversible processes in continuous medium is studied. The formalism referring to equilibrium and non-equilibrium configurations, and theories which includes the presence of gravitational fields are discussed. The nebular model in contraction with dissipative processes identified by heat flux and volumetric viscosity is thermodymically analysed. This model is presented by a plane conformal metric. The temperature, pressure, entropy and entropy production within thermodynamic formalism which adopts the hypothesis of local equilibrium, is calculated. The same analysis is carried out considering a causal thermodynamics, which establishes a local entropy of non-equilibrium. Possible homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models, considering the new phenomenological equation for volumetric viscosity deriving from cause thermodynamics are investigated. The found out models have plane spatial section (K=0) and some ones do not have singularities. The energy conditions are verified and the entropy production for physically reasobable models are calculated. (M.C.K.)

  12. Anticipation of physical causality guides eye movements

    OpenAIRE

    Wende, Kim; Theunissen, Laetitia; Missal, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    Causality is a unique feature of human perception. We present here a behavioral investigation of the influence of physical causality during visual pursuit of object collisions. Pursuit and saccadic eye movements of human subjects were recorded during ocular pursuit of two concurrently launched targets, one that moved according to the laws of Newtonian mechanics (the causal target) and the other one that moved in a physically implausible direction (the non-causal target). We found that anticip...

  13. Causal discovery from medical textual data.

    OpenAIRE

    Mani, S.; Cooper, G. F.

    2000-01-01

    Medical records usually incorporate investigative reports, historical notes, patient encounters or discharge summaries as textual data. This study focused on learning causal relationships from intensive care unit (ICU) discharge summaries of 1611 patients. Identification of the causal factors of clinical conditions and outcomes can help us formulate better management, prevention and control strategies for the improvement of health care. For causal discovery we applied the Local Causal Discove...

  14. Agents: An approach for dynamic process modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grohmann, Axel; Kopetzky, Roland; Lurk, Alexander

    1999-03-01

    With the growing amount of distributed and heterogeneous information and services, conventional information systems have come to their limits. This gave rise to the development of a Multi-Agent System (the "Logical Client") which can be used in complex information systems as well as in other advanced software systems. Computer agents are proactive, reactive and social. They form a community of independent software components that can communicate and co-operate in order to accomplish complex tasks. Thus the agent-oriented paradigm provides a new and powerful approach to programming distributed systems. The communication framework developed is based on standards like CORBA, KQML and KIF. It provides an embedded rule based system to find adequate reactions to incoming messages. The macro-architecture of the Logical Client consists of independent agents and uses artificial intelligence to cope with complex patterns of communication and actions. A set of system agents is also provided, including the Strategy Service as a core component for modelling processes at runtime, the Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) Component for supporting remote co-operation between human users and the Repository for managing and hiding the file based data flow in heterogeneous networks. This architecture seems to be capable of managing complexity in information systems. It is also being implemented in a complex simulation system that monitors and simulates the environmental radioactivity in the country Baden-Württemberg.

  15. THE CONTINUUM APPROACH IN A GROUTING MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Demchuk, M.; Saiyouri, N.

    2014-01-01

    Получено значение максимального размера поры, при котором континуальный подход всё ещё можно применять в моделировании распространения цемента в насыщенном песке при цементации, которая не разрушает структуру грунта.The value of the maximal pore size whereby the continuum approach can still be adopted for modeling cement grout propagation in saturated sand during permeation grouting is obtained....

  16. Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongfeng Peng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a sample of province-level panel data, this paper investigates the Granger causality associations among economic growth (GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI and CO2 emissions in China. By applying the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach (Kónya, 2006, we consider both cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity of different regions in China. The empirical results support that the causality direction not only works in a single direction either from GDP to FDI (in Yunnan or from FDI to GDP (in Beijing, Neimenggu, Jilin, Shanxi and Gansu, but it also works in both directions (in Henan. Moreover, we document that GDP is Granger-causing CO2 emissions in Neimenggu, Hubei, Guangxi and Gansu while there is bidirectional causality between these two variables in Shanxi. In the end, we identify the unidirectional causality from FDI to CO2 emissions in Beijing, Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, and the bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2 emissions in Neimenggu.

  17. The argumentative impact of causal relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

    1996-01-01

    causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation....

  18. The Importance of Qualitative Research for Causal Explanation in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Joseph A.

    2012-01-01

    The concept of causation has long been controversial in qualitative research, and many qualitative researchers have rejected causal explanation as incompatible with an interpretivist or constructivist approach. This rejection conflates causation with the positivist "theory" of causation, and ignores an alternative understanding of causation,…

  19. Co-integration and Causality Among Jakarta Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange, and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Febrian, Erie; Herwany, Aldrin

    2007-01-01

    For both risk management and portfolio selection purposes, modeling the linkage across financial markets is crucial, especially among neighboring stock markets. In investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries, researchers frequently use co-integration and causality analysis. Nevertheless, they conducted the causality in mean tests but not the causality in variance tests. This paper examines the co-integration and causal relations among ...

  20. General solutions and causality for a Voigt medium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duren, R.E.; Heestand, R.L. [Exxon Production Co., Houston, TX (United States)

    1995-01-01

    A 1-D wave equation solution for a propagating seismic pulse in a Voigt medium can be obtained by using a separation of variables to find time harmonic particular solutions and then superimposing the particular solutions. This superposition is a time convolution of the boundary condition (or incident pulse) and the medium`s impulse response. Even though causality is not introduced during the solution of the wave equation, the general solution is causal since the boundary condition is causal and the medium`s impulse response can be shown to be causal. The relationship between attenuation and phase velocity as well as their dependence on frequency arise from the form chosen for the particular solutions. The arbitrary constants associated with the particular solutions are determined by the boundary condition, and the initial condition is also dependent on the boundary condition; however, the initial condition is properly determined and does not depend on times after the initial time (thereby satisfying causality). The convolutional nature of the general solution allows it to also be expressed as a time convolution of the boundary conditions`s time derivative and the medium`s step function response. This expression can be viewed as a superposition of step function responses where the step function response is a particular solution to the wave equation obtained using an approach that is similar to one recently developed for propagating electric pulses. This new solution is obtained with the initial and boundary conditions being independently introduced during the solution of the wave equation. There is no frequency dependence in this solution, and the general solution is causal since it is a superposition of causal step function responses.