WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic events material

  1. Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2002-01-01

    We propose that catastrophic events are “outliers” with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. We describe a unifying approach for modeling and predicting these catastrophic events or “ruptures,” that is, sudden transitions from a quiescent state to a crisis. Such ruptures involve interactions between structures at many different scales. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence, and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes, and human parturition (birth). Future improvements will involve combining ideas and tools from statistical physics and artificial/computational intelligence, to identify and classify possible universal structures that occur at different scales, and to develop application-specific methodologies to use these structures for prediction of the “crises” known to arise in each application of interest. We live on a planet and in a society with intermittent dynamics rather than a state of equilibrium, and so there is a growing and urgent need to sensitize students and citizens to the importance and impacts of ruptures in their multiple forms. PMID:11875205

  2. INEX 5 - General information. INEX 5 Exercise on Notification, Communication and Interfaces Related to Catastrophic Events Involving Radiation or Radiological Materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okyar, Halil Burcin; Lazo, Ted

    2014-01-01

    The INEX series of international nuclear emergency exercises, organised under the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), has proven successful in testing, investigating and improving the arrangements for responding to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies at the national and international level. Previous INEX exercises focussed largely on national and international aspects of early phase management of emergencies at nuclear power plants and more recently, in INEX 4, on issues in consequence management and transition to recovery in response to malicious acts involving the release of radioactive materials in an urban setting. Since the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it has been recognised that notification, communication, and identifying and obtaining resources during catastrophic events can be difficult and the need for established protocols, policies, and procedures among and between country entities is critical for minimizing negative impacts. Therefore, the benefit and goal of INEX 5 is to provide a basis for enhancing national and international emergency management arrangements related to notification, communication and obtaining resources through the exchange of exercise outcomes and experiences from participating countries, in order to identify good practice and common issues to be addressed. INEX 5 will address emergency management aspects of notification, communication and interfaces between and among country and international organizations. INEX 5 is set up as a table top exercise with three levels of discussion for participants (prior to a release, recognizing/validating a release, and impacts to the radiological event from a catastrophic natural event). Countries can develop additional materials to expand this table top to a full field exercise if preferred. Prior to initiation of the table top, participants will be provided clear guidance about how the exercise will be conducted. Because this exercise may involve government agencies and

  3. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  4. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  5. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  6. Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic Objects

    CERN Document Server

    Adushkin, Vitaly

    2008-01-01

    Many times all of us could hear from mass media that an asteroid approached and swept past the Earth. Such an asteroid or comet will inevitably strike the planet some day. This volume considers hazards due to collisions with cosmic objects, particularly in light of recent investigations of impacts by the authors. Each chapter written by an expert contains an overview of an aspect and new findings in the field. The main hazardous effects – cratering, shock, aerial and seismic waves, fires, ejection of dust and soot, tsunami are described and numerically estimated. Numerical simulations of impacts and impact consequences have received much attention in the book. Fairly small impacting objects 50 -100 m in diameter pose a real threat to humanity and their influence on the atmosphere and ionosphere is emphasized. Especially vulnerable are industrially developed areas with dense population, almost all Europe is one of them. Special chapters are devoted to the famous 1908 Tunguska event and new results of its sim...

  7. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  9. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  10. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  11. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Liang, Xiangzhou

    2017-05-09

    This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε ₀ exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of -1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  12. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : New York City -- September 11, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the terrorist attack in New York City on September 11, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  13. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Northridge earthquake -- January 17, 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-22

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...

  14. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : cross cutting study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    In order to provide a better understanding of how transportation is both affected and utilized in an emergency situation, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) commissioned a series of four case studies examining the effects of catastrophic event...

  15. Integrated Modeling of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities and Decisions Induced by Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Ermolieva, T.Y.; Fischer, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses an integrated model capable of dealing with spatial and temporal heterogeneities induced by extreme events, in particular weather related catastrophes. The model can be used for quite different problems which take explicitly into account the specifics of catastrophic risks: highly mutually dependent losses, inherent capacity of information, the need for long-term perspectives (temporal heterogeneity) and geographically explicit analyses (spatial heterogeneity) with respec...

  16. Forest inventory, catastrophic events and historic geospatial assessments in the south

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis M. Jacobs

    2007-01-01

    Catastrophic events are a regular occurrence of disturbance to forestland in the Southern United States. Each major event affects the integrity of the forest inventory database developed and maintained by the Forest Inventory & Analysis Research Work Unit of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Some of these major disturbances through the years have...

  17. Children, Literacy and Mass Trauma Teaching in Times of Catastrophic Events and on Going Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Denny

    2006-01-01

    This article focuses on children living in areas of armed conflict, catastrophic events and on-going emergencies. Based upon her ethnographic research, the author wants to try to share some insights into the complexities of the world in which children sometimes have to fight to live. Her intent is to create a space in which a discussion can take…

  18. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  19. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  20. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  1. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003, Blackout throughout the Northeast. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  2. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Howard Street tunnel fire Baltimore City, Maryland -- July 18, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the tunnel fire in Baltimore, Maryland on July 18, 2001, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilitie...

  3. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Baltimore, MD - Howard Street Tunnel fire - July 18th, 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, : California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on : transportation system ...

  4. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003 blackout that affected the Northeastern United States. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation...

  5. Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lindsey; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage. © 2015 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  6. Remote Sensing Techniques for Rapid Assessment of Forest Damage Caused by Catastrophic Climatic Events, NA-TP-01-01

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Ciesla; William Frament; Margaret Miller-Weeks

    2001-01-01

    Catastrophic climatic events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and ice storms can cause billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and personal property, loss of lives, and damage to natural resources. Forests are especially susceptible to these events. The following is a list of recent climatic events in North America that have had devastating effects on forest...

  7. Human reaction and risk perception to catastrophic events: a psycho-social and cultural perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthakur, M.

    1998-01-01

    Catastrophes of various kinds occur worldwide inflicting major human suffering, more so in the less privileged regions of the world. Human beings react differently to different traumatic situations and to the threat of an event in spite of man common underlying factors. Psychological reactions to catastrophic natural events like flooding on the perception of risk of flooding across various communities thus becomes an interesting study. Economic situation, lack of knowledge and resources are assumed to give a totally different perspective to reactions and perception of risk and its interpretation specially in an underprivileged country like India, compared to other developed countries. For the proposed session, the results of a study carried out in India will be presented. This includes reactions and responses of individuals and general public affected by flooding and their perceptions of risk of flooding. The study also focuses on a comparison between the people affected and at risk of flooding. Socio-cultural values, religion and superstitions, common beliefs and expectations from authorities will be studied as underlying variables, to what extent they might have an impact on the behavioral pattern of an individual in a situation and the perception of oncoming risk. A sizeable number of the Indian population resides in areas, which are generally affected by flooding or highly prone to flooding. Could perceptions vary among individuals within the society or is it simply poverty and unaffordability that drive these people info such hazardous areas? Lack of consciousness may seem to be an important variable, but what really matters and needs to be looked into is how threatened they actually feel. (author)

  8. New sedimentological evidence supporting a catastrophic meltwater discharge event along the Beaufort margin, Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotsko, S.; Driscoll, N. W.; Keigwin, L. D.; Mendenhall, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2013, a cruise on the USCGC Healy mapped the Beaufort margin from Barrow, AK into the Amundsen Gulf using a towed CHIRP subbottom profiler and a hull-mounted Knudsen CHIRP subbottom profiler to study the deglaciation of the margin. Sediment cores were also acquired. New grain size analyses for three sediment cores will be presented. These records help constrain the flooding events captured in the existing grain size data from JPC 15, just east of the Mackenzie trough. This core shows evidence of multiple ice rafted debris events that were likely sourced from the retreat of the Amundsen ice stream. These layers have peaks in grain size around ~20 microns compared to the ~5 micron average for the rest of the core. The grain size peaks correlate to the high amplitude reflectors observed in the seismic CHIRP data. Similar reflectors are observed in the seismic data from two of the new core locations, one in the Mackenzie trough and one east of the trough. The seismic data from these stations also record a thick sediment package that is ~7 meters thick at its depocenter. This layer is interpreted to record a massive meltwater discharge event that entered the Arctic via the Mackenzie River. Oxygen isotope data from JPC 15 support an event at this location based on the covarying benthic and planktonic records. In our conceptual model, the pulses of freshwater from the Amundsen Gulf likely freshened the margin sufficiently that the major discharge event was then able to push the system over the edge. This catastrophic glacial lake draining out the Mackenzie River into the Beaufort Sea and export out of the Arctic into the North Atlantic caused diminished meridional overturning circulation - slowing of the conveyor belt thermohaline circulation - which, in turn, potentially caused the Younger Dryas cold period.

  9. Institute of Medicine's Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events: current initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroud, Clare; Altevogt, Bruce M; Goldfrank, Lewis R

    2010-06-01

    It is only possible to achieve a resilient community and an integrated, comprehensive, and resilient health system that can respond effectively to a public health emergency through active collaboration, coordination, and shared responsibility among a broad group of public and private stakeholders and the community itself. The Institute of Medicine established the Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events in 2007 to provide a neutral venue for dialogue and collaboration among stakeholders in the preparedness field. In the Forum's first year, the members began to address topics such as medical countermeasures dispensing, crisis standards of care, and medical surge capacity. In the past 9 months, the Forum members have expanded their areas of interest in response to current events and national areas of focus. Current topics include individual, family, and community preparedness and resiliency; medical countermeasures from development through dispensing; and the response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Across all of the initiatives undertaken by the Forum, the common element is that they tackle problems, gaps, and future opportunities that can only be successfully addressed if multiple stakeholders work together.

  10. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : the Pentagon and the national capital region -- September 11, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    The report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the terrorist attack on the Pentagon in Arlington, Va. on September 11, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation sy...

  11. Benefits and limitations of using standard Forest Inventory and Analysis data to describe the extent of a catastrophic weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    KaDonna C. Randolph

    2015-01-01

    Within the days and weeks following a catastrophic weather event, governmental forestry agencies often implement aerial reconnaissance missions to delineate damage zones. These initial rapid assessments are sometimes followed by on-the-ground surveys in order to verify the rapid assessments and more precisely quantify damage. When aerial or on-the-ground surveys are...

  12. Earthquakes and related catastrophic events, Island of Hawaii, November 29, 1975; a preliminary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.; Koyanagi, R.Y.; Lipman, P.W.; Lockwood, J.P.; Moore, J.G.; Swanson, D.A.

    1976-01-01

    The largest earthquake in over a century--magnitude 7.2 on the Richter Scale--struck Hawaii the morning of November 29, 1975, at 0448. It was centered about 5 km beneath the Kalapana area on the southeastern coast of the island at 19? 20.1 ' N., long 155? 01.4 ' W.). The earthquake was preceded by numerous foreshocks, the largest of which was a 5.7-magnitude jolt at 0336 the same morning, and was accompanied, or closely followed, by a tsunami seismic sea wave), massive ground movements, hundreds of aftershocks, and a volcanic eruption. The tsunami reached a height of 12.2-14.6 m above sea level on the southeastern coast about 25 km west of the earthquake center, elsewhere generally 8 m or less. The south flank of Kilauea Volcano, which forms the southeastern part of the island, was deformed by dislocations along old and new faults along a 25-km long zone. Downward and seaward fault displacements resulted in widespread subsidence, locally as much as 3.5 m, leaving coconut palms standing in the sea and nearly submerging a small, near-shore island. A brief, small-volume volcanic eruption, triggered by the earthquake and associated ground movements occurred at Kilauea's summit about three-quarters of an hour later. The earthquake, together with the tsunami it generated, locally caused severe property damage in the southeastern part of the island; the tsunami also caused two deaths. Damage from the earthquake and related catastrophic events is estimated by the Hawaii Civil Defense Agency at about $4.1 million. The 1975 Kalapana earthquake and accompanying events represent the latest events in a recurring pattern of behavior for Kilauea. A large earthquake of about the same magnitude, tsunami, subsidence, and eruption occurred at Kilauea in 1868, and a less powerful earthquake and similar related processes are believed to have occurred in 1823. Indeed, the geologic evidence suggests that such events have been repeated many times in Kilauea's past and will continue. The

  13. Towards a Self-Consistent Simulation Capability of Catastrophic Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, I.; Gombosi, T. I.; Bindi, V.; Borovikov, D.; Kota, J.; Giacalone, J.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather refers to variations in the space environment that can affect technologies or endanger human life and health. Solar energetic particle (SEP) events can affect communications and airline safety. Satellites are affected by radiation damage to electronics and to components that produce power and provide images. Sun and star sensors are blinded during large SEP events. Protons of ≳30 MeV penetrate spacesuits and spacecraft walls. Events, like that of August 4, 1972, would have been fatal to moon-walking astronauts. Catastrophic events typically are characterized by hard particle energy spectra potentially containing large fluxes of hundreds of MeV-GeV type particles. These super-energetic particles can penetrate even into the "safest" areas of spacecraft and produce induced radioactivity. We describe several technologies which are to be combined into a physics-based, self consistent model to understand and forecast the origin and evolution of SEP events: The Alfvén Wave Solar-wind Model (AWSoM) simulates the chromosphere-to-Earth system using separate electron and ion temperatures and separate parallel and perpendicular temperatures. It solves the energy equations including thermal conduction and coronal heating by Alfvén wave turbulence. It uses adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), which allows us to cover a broad range of spacial scales. The Eruptive Event Generator using the Gibson-Low flux-rope model (EEGGL) allows the user to select an active region on the sun, select the polarity inversion line where the eruption is observed, and insert a Gibson-Low flux-rope to produce eruption. The Multiple-Field-Lines-Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA) solves the particle transport equation along a multitude of interplanetary magnetic field lines originating from the Sun, using time-dependent parameters for the shock and magnetic field obtained from the MHD simulation. It includes a self-consistent coupling of Alfvén wave turbulence to the SEPs

  14. Cultural, ethical, and spiritual competencies of health care providers responding to a catastrophic event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose, Mini M

    2010-12-01

    Compassion is a language that is understood across cultures, religions, and nations. Being compassionate and empathetic is a basic responsibility of health care providers responding to disasters. Compassion and empathy cannot be operationalized unless providers show culturally competent, ethically right, and spiritually caring behavior. In addition to being accepting of cultures other than their own, providers must read literature and familiarize themselves with the predominant cultures of the affected population. Ethically right decision making is essentially an act of balancing the risks and benefits to the entire society. Spiritual care is an important dimension of total health, and therefore recognition and resolution of the spiritual needs of disaster victims is an essential role of health care providers. Disaster management is teamwork and therefore requires that health care providers draw on the expertise and support of other team members; coordinating efforts with local religious, social governmental organizations, and NGOs to deal with the intangible effects of the cultural and spiritual impact of a disaster and to prevent further demoralization of the affected community is imperative. Disasters occur, and the only thing that can ameliorate their devastating effects is to improve disaster preparedness and respond collectively and courageously to every catastrophic event. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man.......The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  16. Ascertaining the impact of catastrophic events on dengue outbreak: The 2014 gas explosions in Kaohsiung, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Infectious disease outbreaks often occur in the aftermath of catastrophic events, either natural or man-made. While natural disasters such as typhoons/hurricanes, flooding and earthquakes have been known to increase the risk of infectious disease outbreak, the impact of anthropogenic disasters is less well-understood. Kaohsiung City is located in southern Taiwan, where most dengue outbreaks had occurred in the past two decades. It is also the center of petrochemical industry in Taiwan with pipelines running underneath city streets. Multiple underground gas explosions occurred in Kaohsiung in the evening of July 31, 2014 due to chemical leaks in the pipelines. The explosions caused 32 deaths, including five firefighters and two volunteer firefighters, and injured 321 persons. Historically, dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan occurred mostly in small numbers of around 2000 cases or less, except in 2002 with over 5000 cases. However, in the months after the gas explosions, the city reported 14528 lab-confirmed dengue cases from August to December. To investigate the possible impact, if any, of the gas explosions on this record-breaking dengue outbreak, a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, is utilized to study the temporal patterns of the spread of dengue in the districts of Kaohsiung in the proximity of the explosion sites and to pinpoint the waves of infections that had occurred in each district in the aftermath of the gas explosions. The reproduction number of each wave in each district is also computed. In the aftermath of the gas explosions, early waves occurred 4–5 days (which coincides with the minimum of human intrinsic incubation period for dengue) later in districts with multiple waves. The gas explosions likely impacted the timing of the waves, but their impact on the magnitude of the 2014 outbreak remains unclear. The modeling suggests the need for public health surveillance and preparedness in the aftermath of future disasters. PMID:28520740

  17. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and catastrophic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, S.J.

    1980-03-01

    SRI International has projected the rate, duration, and magnitude of geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and Gulf Coast over the next million years. This information will be used by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as input to a computer model, which will be used to simulate possible release scenarios and the consequences of the release of nuclear waste from geologic containment. The estimates in this report, although based on best scientific judgment, are subject to considerable uncertainty. An evaluation of the Quaternary history of the two study areas revealed that each had undergone geomorphic change in the last one million years. Catastrophic events were evaluated in order to determine their significance to the simulation model. Given available data, catastrophic floods are not expected to occur in the two study areas. Catastrophic landslides may occur in the Southwest, but because the duration of the event is brief and the amount of material moved is small in comparison to regional denudation, such events need not be included in the simulation model. Ashfalls, however, could result in removal of vegetation from the landscape, thereby causing significant increases in erosion rates. Because the estimates developed during this study may not be applicable to specific sites, general equations were presented as a first step in refining the analysis. These equations identify the general relationships among the important variables and suggest those areas of concern for which further data are required. If the current model indicates that geomorphic processes (taken together with other geologic changes) may ultimately affect the geologic containment of nuclear waste, further research may be necessary to refine this analysis for application to specific sites

  18. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre-1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post-storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching......, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier-island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post-storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which...... resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present-day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic...

  19. In The Dark: Military Planning for a Catastrophic Critical Infrastructure Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    time to recover from a given event. Some examples are weather events (such as floods and hurricanes); geological events (such as earthquakes or...malicious activities such as payroll account fund routing, diversion of payroll by creating fake employees, and can disarm home security systems

  20. Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

    2010-02-01

    On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

  1. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  2. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, J.C.; Lambert, M.I.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Readhead, C.; van Mechelen, W.; Viljoen, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design: Prospective. Setting: The South African

  3. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  4. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  5. Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pál, Gergő; Raischel, Frank; Lennartz-Sassinek, Sabine; Kun, Ferenc; Main, Ian G.

    2016-03-01

    An accurate understanding of the interplay between random and deterministic processes in generating extreme events is of critical importance in many fields, from forecasting extreme meteorological events to the catastrophic failure of materials and in the Earth. Here we investigate the statistics of record-breaking events in the time series of crackling noise generated by local rupture events during the compressive failure of porous materials. The events are generated by computer simulations of the uniaxial compression of cylindrical samples in a discrete element model of sedimentary rocks that closely resemble those of real experiments. The number of records grows initially as a decelerating power law of the number of events, followed by an acceleration immediately prior to failure. The distribution of the size and lifetime of records are power laws with relatively low exponents. We demonstrate the existence of a characteristic record rank k*, which separates the two regimes of the time evolution. Up to this rank deceleration occurs due to the effect of random disorder. Record breaking then accelerates towards macroscopic failure, when physical interactions leading to spatial and temporal correlations dominate the location and timing of local ruptures. The size distribution of records of different ranks has a universal form independent of the record rank. Subsequences of events that occur between consecutive records are characterized by a power-law size distribution, with an exponent which decreases as failure is approached. High-rank records are preceded by smaller events of increasing size and waiting time between consecutive events and they are followed by a relaxation process. As a reference, surrogate time series are generated by reshuffling the event times. The record statistics of the uncorrelated surrogates agrees very well with the corresponding predictions of independent identically distributed random variables, which confirms that temporal and spatial

  6. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Prospective. The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union ('rugby') players (population at risk). Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries-fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme.

  7. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  8. Clues from stellar catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rimoldi, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    This thesis uses catastrophic stellar events (supernovae and stellar collisions) to investigate different aspects of their environment. The first part of the thesis examines what happens to supernova remnants near supermassive black holes like the one in the Milky Way Galaxy. To do so, a technique

  9. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... increased DNA replication stress....

  10. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    of the Nakba in 2008 and clashes between the police and young Palestinians in 2006, the article demonstrates how Palestinians in Denmark seek to reverse the reverse myth of 1948 by seizing contemporary catastrophes to enact not only past and present Nakbas, but also potential futures. The article concludes...

  11. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  12. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design Prospective. Setting The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. Participants An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union (‘rugby’) players (population at risk). Outcome measures Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries—fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. Results The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. Conclusions The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme. PMID:23447464

  13. Ultrasound monitoring of applied forcing, material ageing, and catastrophic yield of crustal structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available A new kind of data analysis is discussed – and a few case histories of actual application are presented – concerning the physical information attainable by acoustic emission (AE records in geodynamically active or volcanic areas. The previous analyses of such same kind of observations were reported in several papers appeared in the last few years, and here briefly recalled. They are concerned with the inference of the forcing ("F" acting on the physical system, and on the ageing ("T" or fatigue of its "solid" structures. The new analysis here discussed deals with the distinction between a state of applied stress ("hammer regime", compared to state of "recovery regime" of the system while it seeks a new equilibrium state after having been perturbed. For instance, in the case of a seismic event – and according to some kind of almost intuitive argument – the "hammer regime" is the phenomenon leading to the main shock, while the "recovery regime" deals with the well known aftershocks. Such same intuitive inference, however, can be investigated by a much more formal algorithm, aimed at envisaging the minor changes of the behaviour of the system, during its history and during its present dynamic evolution. As a demonstrative application, detailed consideration is given of AE records – each one lasting for a few years – collected on the Italian peninsula vs. records collected on the Kefallinìa Island (western Greece. Such two areas are well known being characterised by some great comparative difference in their respective tectonic setting. When considering planetary scale phenomena, they appear comparatively very close to each other. Hence, they are likely being presumably affected by similar large-scale external actions, although they ought to be expected to respond in some completely different way. Such facts are clearly manifested by some substantially different AE responses of the local crustal

  14. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  15. Experience of a Tertiary-Level Urology Center in the Clinical Urological Events of Rare and Very Rare Incidence. I. Surgical Never Events: 1. Urological Wrong-Surgery Catastrophes and Disabling Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadelkareem, Rabea A

    2018-02-01

    Surgical never events are preventable harmful non-intentional human errors. Urology is a common surgical specialty for their occurrence. A retrospective search of our center's data was done during the period 2006-2016 for surgical never events. Each included case was studied for the primary diagnosis, procedure, and subspecialty, never event type and timing, needed extra-interventions, urologist/procedure proportioning, outcomes, and possible underlying causes of the event. Of more than 55,000 different urological interventions, 61 patients were involved in never events. Wrong procedures represented 75% of the never events, and endourology and urolithiasis subspecialties were more often involved. The main detectable underlying factor was the disproportion between the levels of the procedure class and the qualification of the urologist (41%). Thirty-four cases had extra-procedures. The short-term harm effect represented the final outcome in 42% of all events. Death, permanent organ loss, and long-term harm represented 20, 15, and 23%, respectively. Urological surgical never events are rare, but their final outcomes could be catastrophic, even leading to death.

  16. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  17. Business continuity in blood services: two case studies from events with potentially catastrophic effect on the national provision of blood components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, S J; Rackham, R A; Penny, S; Lawson, J R; Walsh, R J; Ismay, S L

    2015-02-01

    NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) and the Australian Red Cross Blood Service (ARCBS) are national blood establishments providing blood components to England and North Wales, and Australia, respectively. In 2012, both services experienced potentially catastrophic challenges to key assets. NHSBT suffered a flood that closed the largest blood-manufacturing centre in Europe, whilst ARCBS experienced the failure of a data centre network switch that rendered the national blood management system inaccessible for 42 h. This paper describes both crisis events, including the immediate actions, recovery procedures and lessons learned. Both incidents triggered emergency response plans. These included hospital reprovisioning and recovery from the incident. Once normal services had been restored, both events were subjected to root cause analysis (RCA) and production of 'lessons learned' reports. In both scenarios, the key enablers of rapid recovery were established emergency plans, clear leadership and the support of a flexible workforce. Product issues to hospitals were unaffected, and there were no abnormal trends in hospital complaints. RCA identified the importance of risk mitigations that require co-operation with external organizations. Reviews of both events identified opportunities to enhance business resilience through prior identification of external risks and improvements to contingency plans, for example by implementing mass messaging to staff and other stakeholders. Blood establishment emergency plans tend to focus on responding to mass casualty events. However, consolidation of manufacturing to fewer sites combined with a reliance on national IT systems increases the impact of loss of function. Blood services should develop business continuity plans which include prevention of such losses, and the maintenance of services and disaster recovery. © 2014 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  18. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  19. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  20. Earthquake statistics and plastic events in soft-glassy materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benzi, Roberto; Kumar, Pinaki; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquakes based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice–Boltzmann simulations. We show that if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which have strong

  1. Bringing soil science to society after catastrophic events such as big forest fires. Some examples of field approaches in Spanish Mediterranean areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataix-Solera, Jorge; Arcenegui, Vicky; Cerdà, Artemi; García-Orenes, Fuensanta; Moltó, Jorge; Chrenkovà, Katerina; Torres, Pilar; Lozano, Elena; Jimenez-Pinilla, Patricia; Jara-Navarro, Ana B.

    2015-04-01

    Forest fires must be considered a natural factor in Mediterranean ecosystems, but the changes in land use in the last six decades have altered its natural regime making them an ongoing environmental problem. Some big forest fires (> 500 has) also have a great socio-economical impact on human population. Our research team has experience of 20 years studying the effects of forest fires on soil properties, their recovery after fire and the impact of some post-fire management treatments. In this work we want to show our experience of how to transfer part of our knowledge to society after two catastrophic events of forest fires in the Alicante Province (E Spain). Two big forest fires: one in "Sierra de Mariola (Alcoi)" and other in "Montgó Natural Park (Javea-Denia)" occurred in in July 2012 and September 2014 respectivelly, and as consequence a great impact was produced on the populations of nearby affected villages. Immediatelly, some groups were formed through social networks with the aim of trying to help recover the affected areas as soon as possible. Usually, society calls for early reforestation and this preassure on forest managers and politicians can produce a response with a greater impact on fire-affected area than the actual fire. The soil is a fragile ecosystem after forest fire, and the situation after fire can vary greatly depending on many factors such as fire severity, previous history of fire in the area, soil type, topography, etc. An evaluation of the site to make the best decision for recovery of the area, protecting the soil and avoiding degradation of the ecosystem is necessary. In these 2 cases we organized some field activities and conferences to give society knowledge of how soil is affected by forest fires, and what would be the best post-fire management depending on how healthy the soil is and the vegetation resilience after fire and our expectations for a natural recovery. The application of different types of mulch in vulnerable areas, the

  2. Applying the International Nuclear Event Scale to radioactive materials transport events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krembel, D.

    2002-01-01

    Expanding the scope of its activities to include controlling the safe transport of radioactive materials, the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) has decided to apply the INES scale to transport events, following a wide-ranging debate bringing together experts, industry and the Conseil Superieur de la Surete et de l'Information Nucleaire (Higher Council for Nuclear Safety and Information). International interest in French experience has gradually raised the question of harmonised application of the INES scale to transport events by the competent international authorities. (author)

  3. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  4. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  5. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  6. Corporate Disclosure, Materiality, and Integrated Report: An Event Study Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cleofe Giorgino

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the extensive literature investigating the impacts of corporate disclosure in supporting the sustainable growth of an organization, few studies have included in the analysis the materiality issue referred to the information being disclosed. This article aims to address this gap, exploring the effect produced on capital markets by the publication of a recent corporate reporting tool, Integrated Report (IR. The features of this tool are that it aims to represent the multidimensional impact of the organization’s activity and assumes materiality as a guiding principle of the report drafting. Adopting the event study methodology associated with a statistical significance test for categorical data, our results verify that an organization’s release of IR is able to produce a statistically significant impact on the related share prices. Moreover, the term “integrated” assigned to the reports plays a significant role in the impact on capital markets. Our findings have beneficial implications for both researchers and practitioners, adding new evidence for the IR usefulness as a corporate disclosure tool and the effect of an organization’s decision to disclose material information.

  7. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  8. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed.......It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  9. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : executive summary of the August 2003 northeast blackout, Great Lakes and New York City regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    On Thursday, August 14, 2003, a series of seemingly small events, happening in concert, produced the largest blackout in American history. Shortly after 2:00 p.m. on August 14, a brush fire caused a transmission line south of Columbus, Ohio, to go ou...

  10. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  11. Challenge of material recycling at large public events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pivnenko, Kostyantyn; Edjabou, Maklawe Essonanawe; Boldrin, Alessio

    2017-01-01

    Large public events such as festivals, sports events or national celebrations tend to attract a considerable number of people. While some of the events are important sources of entertainment for the participants, such gatherings create a challenge to organize and maintain a functioning infrastruc...

  12. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  13. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  14. Unified approach to catastrophic events: from the normal state to geological or biological shock in terms of spectral fractal and nonlinear analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Eftaxias

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An important question in geophysics is whether earthquakes (EQs can be anticipated prior to their occurrence. Pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM emissions provide a promising window through which the dynamics of EQ preparation can be investigated. However, the existence of precursory features in pre-seismic EM emissions is still debatable: in principle, it is difficult to prove associations between events separated in time, such as EQs and their EM precursors. The scope of this paper is the investigation of the pre-seismic EM activity in terms of complexity. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behavior close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. Interestingly, theoretical studies (Hopfield, 1994; Herz and Hopfield 1995; Rundle et al., 1995; Corral et al., 1997 suggest that the EQ dynamics at the final stage and neural seizure dynamics should have many similar features and can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. Motivated by this hypothesis, we evaluate the capability of linear and non-linear techniques to extract common features from brain electrical activities and pre-seismic EM emissions predictive of epileptic seizures and EQs respectively. The results suggest that a unified theory may exist for the ways in which firing neurons and opening cracks organize themselves to produce a large crisis, while the preparation of an epileptic shock or a large EQ can be studied in terms of ''Intermittent Criticality''.

  15. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  16. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  17. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  18. Vivre la catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Favreau, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Le mot catastrophe a ceci d’intéressant et de pratique que l’on peut l’employer pour désigner un ensemble de situations hétéroclites, ayant pour point commun un caractère dit sensationnel, médiatiquement porteur et pour autant sans commune mesure. Une catastrophe pour les uns peut ne pas en être une pour les autres. On a ainsi pu lire dans la presse que le réchauffement climatique met en péril des populations entières que l’on nomme déjà les futurs « réfugiés climatiques » en rendant leur mil...

  19. Status of transport events involving radioactive materials which occurred in France between 1999 and 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report presents transport events involving radioactive materials, occurred on French territory from 1999 to 2011, listed in the IRSN's database. 1,304 events have been recorded. For each of them, many parameters have been collected and analysed from information listed in the notifications and reports of the events sent by users (type of event, purpose, package design, level on the INES scale...). The numbers of events notified in 2010 and 2011 are slightly higher than the average of 100 events per year. The two main causes of notification concern documentation errors (in transport documents or labeling) and handling mishaps. The downward trend of frequency of package or conveyance contaminations has been confirmed. A short description of the outstanding events occurred in 2010 and 2011 is proposed. This synthesis also gives an outline of the actions recommended by IRSN to avoid recurrence of the notified events and improve the safety of the transports of radioactive materials

  20. Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bixenstine, Paul J; Shore, Andrew D; Mehtsun, Winta T; Ibrahim, Andrew M; Freischlag, Julie A; Makary, Martin A

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts, $1 million or greater, greatly influence physicians' practice, hospital policy, and discussions of healthcare reform. However, little is known about the specific characteristics and overall cost burden of these payouts. We reviewed all paid malpractice claims nationwide using the National Practitioner Data Bank over a 7-year period (2004-2010) and used multivariate regression to identify risk factors for catastrophic and increased overall payouts. Claims with catastrophic payouts represented 7.9% (6,130/77,621) of all paid claims. Factors most associated with catastrophic payouts were patient age less than 1 year; quadriplegia, brain damage, or lifelong care; and anesthesia allegation group. Compared with court judgments, settlement was associated with decreased odds of a catastrophic payout (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.42) and lower estimated average payouts ($124,863; 95% CI, $101,509-144,992). A physician's years in practice and previous paid claims history had no effect on the odds of a catastrophic payout. Catastrophic payouts averaged $1.4 billion per year or 0.05% of the National Health Expenditures. Preventing catastrophic malpractice payouts should be only one aspect of comprehensive patient safety and quality improvement strategies. Future studies should evaluate the benefits of targeted interventions based on specific patient safety event characteristics. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  1. Corporate Disclosure, Materiality, and Integrated Report: An Event Study Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Cleofe Giorgino; Enrico Supino; Federico Barnabè

    2017-01-01

    Within the extensive literature investigating the impacts of corporate disclosure in supporting the sustainable growth of an organization, few studies have included in the analysis the materiality issue referred to the information being disclosed. This article aims to address this gap, exploring the effect produced on capital markets by the publication of a recent corporate reporting tool, Integrated Report (IR). The features of this tool are that it aims to represent the multidimensional imp...

  2. The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-13

    ARL-CR-0822 ● DEC 2017 US Army Research Laboratory The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event...Army Research Laboratory The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event prepared by Danielle Abell SURVICE...2. REPORT TYPE Contractor Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) June 2016–September 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Effect of Material and Side

  3. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  4. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  5. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  6. Hazardous materials safety and security technology field operational test. Volume II, evaluation final report synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-11-11

    The catastrophic events of September 11, 2001 and the ongoing war on terrorism have heightened the level of concern from Federal government officials and the transportation industry regarding the secure transport of hazardous materials (HAZMAT). Secu...

  7. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  8. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  9. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrakov, D. A.; Chernomorets, S. S.; Evans, S. G.; Tutubalina, O. V.

    2008-04-01

    Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM) is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  10. Impact of catastrophic events on small mountainous rivers: Temporal and spatial variations in suspended- and dissolved-solid fluxes along the Choshui River, central western Taiwan, during typhoon Mindulle, July 2-6, 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milliman, J. D.; Lee, T. Y.; Huang, J. C.; Kao, S. J.

    2017-05-01

    Small mountainous rivers deliver disproportionately large quantities of suspended and dissolved solids to the global ocean, often in response to catastrophic events such as earthquakes or floods. Here we report on the impact of a major flood on the Choshui River, central-western Taiwan, generated by typhoon Mindulle, July 2-6, 2004, five years after the nearby Mw 7.6 Chichi earthquake. Water samples taken at 3-h intervals at three stations along main stem, as well as from two downriver tributaries, allow us to delineate the temporal and spatial variability in concentrations and fluxes of suspended and dissolved constituents within the middle and lower portions of the river in response to this flood. High suspended-sediment concentrations, some as high as 200 g/l, reflected the rapid erosion of landslide scars and debris deposits generated by super-typhoon Herb in 1996 and the 1999 Chichi earthquake. Dissolved-solid and suspended-sediment discharges totaled 0.22 and 70 million tons (mt), 50 mt of which were discharged in just two days. Particulate organic carbon (POC) discharge, most of which was pre-modern in age, was 195,000 t. More than half of the discharged water, POC and dissolved solids came from upriver, whereas about 70% of the suspended sediment and 60% of the dissolved nitrate came from two downriver tributaries, the Chenyoulan and Qingshui rivers. Spatial and temporal differences in the character and discharge of suspended and dissolved solids within and between rivers in the Choshui drainage basin reflect different geologies, landslide histories, the effects of human impact, and the abrupt draining of the Tsaoling landslide lake in the Qingshui basin, as well as the possible shifting of importance of groundwater vs. overland flow. Neither wind-blown pollutants nor sea salts appear to have contributed significantly to dissolved solid character or discharge. Sediment contribution from the landslides in the Chenyoulan basin generated by super-typhoon Herb

  11. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  12. Earthquake statistics inferred from plastic events in soft-glassy materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benzi, Roberto; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which

  13. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  15. Re-conceptualising political landscapes after the material turn: a typology of material events

    OpenAIRE

    Duineveld, Martijn; Van Assche, Kristof; Beunen, R.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract This paper conceptualises and categorises the various relationships between materiality, discursive construction of landscapes and collective action. Building on both post-structuralist and non-representational geography, and incorporating insights from social systems theory and from evolutionary governance theory, we present a perspective on materiality as shaping landscapes, communities and cultures through different pathways. These pathways might involve the construction of landsc...

  16. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  17. Re-conceptualising political landscapes after the material turn: a typology of material events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duineveld, Martijn; Van Assche, Kristof; Beunen, R.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract This paper conceptualises and categorises the various relationships between materiality, discursive construction of landscapes and collective action. Building on both post-structuralist and non-representational geography, and incorporating insights from social systems theory and from

  18. Catastrophe climatique irréversible et politique de l'effet de serre

    OpenAIRE

    Sébastien ROUILLON

    2000-01-01

    This paper considers the issue of a catastrophic environmental collapse and the way one should deal with it. In the model used here, one faces the choice to cross or not a critical threshold of pollution, which consequences are a definitive destruction of some environmental characteristic. The introduced decision-rule compares the economic cost of the emission constraint, designed to avoid the catastrophe, to the damage of the catastrophic event. Depending on the order between this alternativ...

  19. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  20. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  1. [Abdominal catastrophe--surgeon's view].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyhnánek, F

    2010-07-01

    Abdominal catastrophe is a serious clinical condition, usually being a complication arising during treatment of intraabdominal nontraumatic disorders or abdominal injuries. Most commonly, inflamation- secondary peritonitis, is concerned. Abdominal catastrophe also includes secondary signs of sepsis, abdominal compartment syndrome and enterocutaneous fistules. Most septic abdominal disorders which show signs of abdominal catastrophy, require surgical intervention and reinterventions--planned or "on demand" laparotomies. During the postoperative period, the patient requires intensive care management, including steps taken to stabilize his/hers condition, management of sepsis and metabolic and nutritional support measures, as well as adequate indication for reoperations. New technologies aimed at prevention of complications in laparostomies and to improve conditions for final laparotomy closure are used in phase procedures for surgical management of intraabdominal infections. Despite the new technologies, abdominal catastrophe has higher morbidity and lethality risk rates.

  2. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  3. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roda, M.; Kleinhans, M.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/217675123; Zegers, T.E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/155390562; Oosthoek, J.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios

  4. CATASTROPHIC ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME IN LEPROSY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Vaibhav Chewoolkar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to mesenteric venous thrombosis as a part of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and later on succumbed. We thereby wish to highlight the need for early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of this potentially fatal condition in patients with infections.

  5. Catastrophes caused by corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    PETROVIC ZORAN C.

    2016-01-01

    For many years, huge attention has been paid to the problem of corrosion damage and destruction of metallic materials. Experience shows that failures due to corrosion problems are very important, and statistics at the world level shows that the damage resulting from the effects of various forms of corrosion is substantial and that, for example, in industrialized countries it reaches 4-5% of national incomes. Significant funds are determined annually for the prevention and control of corrosion...

  6. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  7. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  8. Technical meeting on 'Primary coolant pipe rupture event in liquid metal cooled fast reactors'. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    In Liquid Metal cooled Fast Reactors (LMFR) or in accelerator driven sub-critical systems (ADS) with LMFR like sub-critical cores, the primary coolant pipes (PCP) connect the primary coolant pumps to the grid plate. A rupture in one of these pipes could cause significant loss of coolant flow to the core with severe consequences. In loop type reactors, all primary pipelines are provided with double envelopes and inter-space coolant leak monitoring systems that permit leak detection before break. Thus, the PCP rupture event can be placed in the beyond design basis event (BDBE) category. Such an arrangement is difficult to incorporate for pool type reactors, and hence it could be argued that the PCP rupture event needs to be analysed in detail as a design basis event (DBE, category 4 event). The primary coolant pipes are made of ductile austenitic stainless steel material and operate at temperatures of the cold pool and at comparatively low pressures. For such low stressed piping with negligible creep and embrittlement effects, it is of interest to discuss under what design provisions, for pool type reactors, the guillotine rupture of PCP could be placed in the BDBE category. The topical Technical Meeting (TM) on 'Primary Coolant Pipe Rupture Event in Liquid Metal Cooled Reactors' was called to enable the specialists to present the philosophy and analyses applied on this topic in the various Member States for different LMFRs. The scope of the Technical Meeting was to provide a global forum for information exchange on the philosophy applied in the various participating Member States and the analyses performed for different LMFRs with regard to the primary coolant pipe rupture event. More specifically, the objectives of the Technical Meeting were to review the safety philosophy for the PCP rupture event in pool type LMFR, to assess the structural reliability of the PCP and the probability of rupture under different conditions (with/without in-service inspection), to

  9. Space power as a response to global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempsell, Mark

    2006-10-01

    Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or human activity. It has been argued that space industrialisation generally offers a response to the risks involved by this class of event and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. Space power has always been argued as the only energy generating option that avoids depletion of non-renewable resources or pollution induced problems—in particular global warming. However, there are many other potential roles for a solar power capability and the infrastructure associated with it can play in the prevention of global catastrophes and this paper examines this wider application. A very preliminary examination indicates the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) infrastructure can also support strategic defence, Near-Earth Object defence, climate modification, and major resource provision. Combined these may give the capability to deal with all the main threats to human civilisation.

  10. Catastrophic fires in Russian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. I. Sukhinin; D. J. McRae; B. J. Stocks; S. G. Conard; WeiMin Hao; A. J. Soja; D. Cahoon

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the contribution of catastrophic fires to the total burned area and the amount of tree mortality in Russia since the 1970’s. Such fires occurred in the central regions of European Russia (1972, 1976, 1989, 2002, 2010), Khabarovsk krai (1976, 1988, 1998), Amur region (1997-2002), Republics of Yakutia and Tuva (2002), Magadan and Kamchatka oblast (1984, 2001...

  11. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  12. Unusual events regarding losses and finds of radioactive materials in Germany in the years 1991 to 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barth, I.; Czarwinski, R.

    1998-01-01

    In Germany safety related events in the use and transportation of radioactive materials as well as in the operation of accelerators are registered completely. Registration and licensing of radioactive sources and the system of notification of the authorities of unusual events are presented. The analysis of these events demonstrates their causation and allows the conclusion on avoidable errors. Especially events like losses and theft of radioactive materials on the one hand and the finds of such sources in public domain on the other hand are analysed in detail. Conclusions (lessons learned) are drawn. (author)

  13. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  14. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

  15. A Catastrophe in Quantum Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Ignatovich, V K

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed.

  16. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  17. Response to events involving the inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-08-01

    of Understanding (MOU) (1998) to promote co-operation at the international level in order to improve the control of radioactive materials. At the time of the drafting of this report, a similar MOU between the IAEA and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) is pending. There are a number of measures that must be undertaken by States to combat the illicit trafficking and inadvertent movements of radioactive materials. These measures are, generally, shared between the regulatory and law enforcement agencies as part of a State's national arrangements. One of these measures is monitoring for radioactive materials at borders. This Technical Document (TECDOC) provides information to front-line officers on response to events involving the detection of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The emphasis in this publication is on operational and tactical response measures. These may entail a multi-agency response, particularly at the tactical level. Detailed scientific information has been kept to a minimum as it is recognized that the majority of law enforcement personnel will not have the background necessary to use such information effectively. The prime objective of this TECDOC is to provide Member States with practical information for use by emergency response and law enforcement personnel involved in dealing with incidents of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The purpose of the response is to regain control of the relevant radioactive materials so that the risk of harm to people and the environment is mitigated. This information is aimed primarily at police, customs and other law enforcement officers who may become involved in incidents concerning inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. Effective inter-agency co-operation can only be achieved if personnel who are not normally involved with radiological emergencies are aware of the issues associated with

  18. Response to events involving the inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-09-01

    of Understanding (MOU) (1998) to promote co-operation at the international level in order to improve the control of radioactive materials. At the time of the drafting of this report, a similar MOU between the IAEA and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) is pending. There are a number of measures that must be undertaken by States to combat the illicit trafficking and inadvertent movements of radioactive materials. These measures are, generally, shared between the regulatory and law enforcement agencies as part of a State's national arrangements. One of these measures is monitoring for radioactive materials at borders. This Technical Document (TECDOC) provides information to front-line officers on response to events involving the detection of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The emphasis in this publication is on operational and tactical response measures. These may entail a multi-agency response, particularly at the tactical level. Detailed scientific information has been kept to a minimum as it is recognized that the majority of law enforcement personnel will not have the background necessary to use such information effectively. The prime objective of this TECDOC is to provide Member States with practical information for use by emergency response and law enforcement personnel involved in dealing with incidents of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The purpose of the response is to regain control of the relevant radioactive materials so that the risk of harm to people and the environment is mitigated. This information is aimed primarily at police, customs and other law enforcement officers who may become involved in incidents concerning inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. Effective inter-agency co-operation can only be achieved if personnel who are not normally involved with radiological emergencies are aware of the issues associated with

  19. Events leading to foreign material being left in the primary heat transport system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groom, S.H.; Benton, A.J.

    1996-01-01

    On October 6,1995, following an extensive maintenance outage which had included boiler primary side cleaning, a Primary Heat Transport (PHT) system pump run was started in preparation for ultrasonic feeder flow measurements. Wooden debris in the system resulted in failure of the shaft seals of the PHT Pump 1. The subsequent investigation and assessment of this event provided an understanding of both the pump shaft failure mechanism and the origin of the debris in the PHT system. The pump shaft failed as a result of friction-generated heat resulting from contact between the rotating shaft and the stationary seal housing. This contact was initiated by mechanical and hydraulic imbalance in the pump impeller caused by wooden debris lodged in the impeller. The origin of the wooden debris was a temporary plywood cover which was inadvertently left in a boiler following maintenance. This cover moved from the boiler to the pump impeller when the PHT pumps were started. The cover was not accounted for and verified as being removed prior to boiler closure, although a visual inspection was conducted. A detailed institutional process for component accounting and verification of removal of materials did not exist at the time of this event. Details of the methods used to establish alternative heat sinks, provide debris recovery facilities and to assess the fitness for duty of the heat transport system and fuel channels prior to reactor startup are discussed in detail elsewhere. This report will concentrate on the events leading up to and following the events which ultimately resulted in failure of the PHT pump shaft

  20. SPECTRAL PROPERTIES OF LARGE GRADUAL SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS. I. FE, O, AND SEED MATERIAL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desai, M. I.; Dayeh, M. A.; Ebert, R. W.; Mccomas, D. J.; Schwadron, N. A. [Southwest Research Institute, 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238 (United States); Mason, G. M. [Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Li, G. [CSPAR, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35756 (United States); Cohen, C. M. S.; Mewaldt, R. A. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Smith, C. W., E-mail: mdesai@swri.edu [Department of Physics and Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)

    2016-01-10

    We have surveyed ∼0.1–100 MeV nucleon{sup −1} O and Fe fluence spectra during 46 isolated, large gradual SEP events observed at ACE during solar cycles 23 and 24. Most SEP spectra are well represented by the four-parameter Band function with a normalization constant, low-energy spectral slope, high-energy spectral slope, and break energy. The O and Fe spectral slopes are similar and most spectra steepen above the break energy, probably due to common acceleration and transport processes affecting different ion species. SEP spectra above the break energies depend on the origin of the seed population; larger contributions of suprathermal flare material result in higher Fe/O ratios and flatter spectra at higher energies. SEP events with steeper O spectra at low energies and higher break energies are associated with slower coronal mass ejections (CMEs), while those associated with fast (>2000 km s{sup −1}) CMEs and ground level enhancements have harder or flatter spectra at low and high energies, and O break energies between ∼1 and 10 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The latter events are enriched in {sup 3}He and higher-energy Fe, and have Fe spectra that rollover at significantly lower energies compared with O, probably because Fe ions with smaller Q/M ratios can escape from the distant shock more easily than O ions with larger Q/M ratios. We conclude that SEP spectral properties result from many complex and competing effects, namely Q/M-dependent scattering, shock properties, and the origin of the seed populations, all of which must be taken into account to develop a comprehensive picture of CME-driven shock acceleration of large gradual SEP events.

  1. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  2. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  3. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  4. The epidemiology of catastrophic spine injuries in high school and college football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sanjitpal S; Boden, Barry P

    2008-03-01

    Athletic events have long been identified as a source of catastrophic spinal injuries. One of the most notorious sports has been American football. At both the amateur and professional level, this collision sport is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries including cervical spine trauma and quadriplegia. Although modifications in the rules of play and education of players and coaches have significantly diminished the rate of quadriplegia, there remains a need to decrease the number of catastrophic spine injuries in football. Further research related to the prevention and management of athletic cervical spine trauma is necessary.

  5. Incidents in transport of radioactive materials for civil use: IRSN draws lessons from events reported between 1999 and 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Some 900,000 packages of radioactive materials for civil use are transported each year in France. The great majority of these shipments involve radioactive materials used in the fields of medicine, pharmaceuticals, industry or property. Transport of radioactive materials linked to the nuclear fuel cycle actually represents only 15% of transport. A great variety of material is transported, differing in weight (from a few grams to tens of tons), form, activity and packaging. The associated risks are also different: radioactive contamination, external exposure to ionising radiation, chemical risk etc. In its role of technical support to safety and radioprotection authorities, IRSN's mission is to assess the design, manufacturing, testing and use of packaging and transport systems. The Institute is also involved in the management and analysis of events that occur during transport of radioactive materials. To assist with this, the IRSN manages a database which lists reported deviations, anomalies, incidents and accidents (known in a generic way as 'events') relating to transport. With an aim of reduction of the risks related to transport, the feedback resulting from the thorough analysis of the notified events is capitalized by IRSN, just as the feedback of the assessments of the safety analysis reports of the various package designs. Based on these feedbacks, IRSN proposes axes of improvement relating to package designs and transport operations, and regulatory evolutions, as well as priority topics for the inspections carried out by the French Nuclear safety authority (ASN). The IRSN has carried out a transversal analysis of all events in transport of radioactive materials that occurred in France from 1999 to 2007 as listed in its database (i.e. 901 events). For each event, some 70 parameters have been recorded from the analysis of the notifications and reports of the events, transmitted by the operators (type of event, type of package, level on the INES scale). This

  6. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-11-10

    Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. This study used data from the Quality of Life National Survey conducted in Colombia in 2011. The presence of catastrophic healthcare spending was calculated using the methodology proposed by the World Health Organization in 2005. Households were classified as having catastrophic health spending when their out-of-pocket health payments were over 20 % of their payment capacity. All other households were classified as not having catastrophic health spending. A probit model was estimated aimed at determining what factors influence the probability of catastrophic healthcare spending. Study findings show that 9.6 % of Colombian households had catastrophic expenditure. The incidence was higher in households in the Pacífica and Atlántica regions, extended and nuclear families, households with children or elderly adults, located in rural areas, and not insured under the healthcare system. The ratio of household members who work seems to reduce the risk of catastrophic healthcare spending, but the occurrence of any in-patient event increases it. So, there is no statistical evidence for rejecting the hypotheses under study. Results indicate the importance of establishing intervention mechanisms in order to improve equity in access and payment for health care, protect vulnerable groups against financial risk, and, consequently, reduce the incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. For this, it is essential to achieve universal health coverage through standardized and improved health services packages for vulnerable age groups and

  7. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  8. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  9. Crise, catastrophe, risque et adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Yiou , Pascal; Jézéquel , Aglae

    2017-01-01

    International audience; L'histoire de la Terre est jalonnée de crises et de catastrophes environnementales, qui ont conduit à la disparition d'espèces et de sociétés, et parfois à l'émergence de nouveaux systèmes. Nous ne reviendrons pas sur ces événements géologiques ou historiques, mais nous concentrons sur le changement climatique en cours et ses événements extrêmes. Du fait de l'expansion démographique, la surface habitable de la Terre est de plus en plus densément peuplée, ce qui augment...

  10. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  11. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  12. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  13. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  14. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  15. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  16. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-10-29

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC.

  17. Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jerez Vegueria, Pablo F.; Lopez Forteza; Yamil; Diaz Guerra, Pedro I.

    2003-01-01

    In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

  18. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

  19. A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. III. Catastrophe of the Eruptive Filament at a Magnetic Null Point and Formation of an Opposite-Handedness CME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uralov, A. M.; Grechnev, V. V.; Rudenko, G. V.; Myshyakov, I. I.; Chertok, I. M.; Filippov, B. P.; Slemzin, V. A.

    2014-10-01

    Our analysis in Papers I and II (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. 289, 289, 2014b and Solar Phys. 289, 1279, 2014c) of the 18 November 2003 solar event responsible for the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm has revealed a complex chain of eruptions. In particular, the eruptive filament encountered a topological discontinuity located near the solar disk center at a height of about 100 Mm, bifurcated, and transformed into a large cloud, which did not leave the Sun. Concurrently, an additional CME presumably erupted close to the bifurcation region. The conjectures about the responsibility of this compact CME for the superstorm and its disconnection from the Sun are confirmed in Paper IV (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys. submitted, 2014a), which concludes about its probable spheromak-like structure. The present article confirms the presence of a magnetic null point near the bifurcation region and addresses the origin of the magnetic helicity of the interplanetary magnetic clouds and their connection to the Sun. We find that the orientation of a magnetic dipole constituted by dimmed regions with the opposite magnetic polarities away from the parent active region corresponded to the direction of the axial field in the magnetic cloud, while the pre-eruptive filament mismatched it. To combine all of the listed findings, we propose an intrinsically three-dimensional scheme, in which a spheromak-like eruption originates via the interaction of the initially unconnected magnetic fluxes of the eruptive filament and pre-existing ones in the corona. Through a chain of magnetic reconnections their positive mutual helicity was transformed into the self-helicity of the spheromak-like magnetic cloud.

  20. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  1. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  2. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-04-01

    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  3. Astronomy and catastrophes through myth and old texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, E.; Ćirković, M.; Stojić, Igor; Gavrilović, Nataša

    In the old myths and iconographies there are some motives that indicate at least one cataclysmic event that influenced many old religions and myths, that could be linked to the impact of the celestial object. We investigate the hypothesis of coherent catastrophism put forward in recent years by Clube, Bailey, Napier and others from both astrobiological and culturogical points of view. The conventional idea that the quasi-periodic break-up of celestial bodies influence terrestrial conditions can today be placed in both wider (astro-biological) and deeper (historico-culturological) context. In particular, we point out that the link between the Neolithic history of astronomy, and origin of Mithraism. We speculate that the main icon of Mithraic religion could pinpoint an event that happened around 4000 BC, when the spring equinox entered the constellation of Taurus. We also, link some motives in other old religions and myths to the same event, or to some similar events that inspired those myths.

  4. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  5. Surface-mediated molecular events in material-induced blood-plasma coagulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Kaushik

    Coagulation and thrombosis persist as major impediments associated with the use of blood-contacting medical devices. We are investigating the molecular mechanism underlying material-induced blood-plasma coagulation focusing on the role of the surface as a step towards prospective development of improved hemocompatible biomaterials. A classic observation in hematology is that blood/blood-plasma in contact with clean glass surface clots faster than when in contact with many plastic surfaces. The traditional biochemical theory explaining the underlying molecular mechanism suggests that hydrophilic surfaces, like that of glass, are specific activators of the coagulation cascade because of the negatively-charged groups on the surface. Hydrophobic surfaces are poor procoagulants or essentially "benign" because they lack anionic groups. Further, these negatively-charged surfaces are believed to not only activate blood factor XII (FXII), the key protein in contact activation, but also play a cofactor role in the amplification and propagation reactions that ultimately lead to clot formation. In sharp contrast to the traditional theory, our investigations indicate a need for a paradigm shift in the proposed sequence of contact activation events to incorporate the role of protein adsorption at the material surfaces. These studies have lead to the central hypothesis for this work proposing that protein adsorption to hydrophobic surfaces attenuates the contact activation reactions so that poorly-adsorbent hydrophilic surfaces appear to be stronger procoagulants relative to hydrophobic surfaces. Our preliminary studies measuring the plasma coagulation response of activated FXII (FXIIa) on different model surfaces suggested that the material did not play a cofactor role in the processing of this enzyme dose through the coagulation pathway. Therefore, we focused our efforts on studying the mechanism of initial production of enzyme at the procoagulant surface. Calculations for the

  6. Inconceivable events in handling material in a heavy mechanical engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oestberg, G.; Hoffstedt, H.; Holm, G.; Klingenstierna, B.; Rydnert, B.; Samsonowitz, V.; Sjoeberg, L.

    1977-05-01

    This report accounts for an exploratory project concerning so-called inconceivable events in a manufacturing process. The study was performed at a medium-sized mechanical engineering company manufacturing heavy welded constructions with high demands on reliability and safety. On the basis of experience gained in the present study the main study shall deal with inconceivable events during the manufacture of welded nuclear pressure vessels. First, a description is given of the background and conditions of the project. On this follows a technical description of the studied process, and an account is given of observations and results of interviews at the company as well. In the light of this, an attempt to find a pattern of inconceivable events was done, and a model for analysis of rare events was developed. By means of this model and earlier described events, causes of unpredicted or unexpected events are discussed. Finally the methodology applied in the study is accounted for and discussed

  7. Cosmic Impacts, Cosmic Catastrophes. Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    Examined is the science of catastrophism and its role in planetary and earth science. The effects of impacts on earth with extraterrestrial origins are discussed. Perspectives on the age and dynamics of the earth's crust are presented. (CW)

  8. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  9. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  10. Department of Defense Support to a Catastrophic Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    people are believed to be left homeless . The economic impact is compared with the more recent Hurricane Sandy and could double in cost with an early...over 600,000 people are believed to be left homeless . The economic impact is compared with the more recent Hurricane Sandy and could double in cost...the initial fatality count would reach over 5,000 people . San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, AZ, four of the top ten populated

  11. Visualization of the Impact of the Catastrophic Flooding Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Moreri, K. K.

    The use of advanced tools for computation and modelling of natural hazards can be combined with a GIS that has the capability of decision support and advanced visualization to produce models, that will represent the risks of natural hazards and man-made disasters in the form of risk maps, where...

  12. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  13. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  14. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  15. Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

    2017-12-15

    The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  16. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kron

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

  17. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database - analysis of flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kron, W.; Steuer, M.; Löw, P.; Wirtz, A.

    2012-03-01

    Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

  18. Event tree analysis of accidents during transport of radioactive materials in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watabe, N.; Shirai, K.; Noguchi, K.; Suzuki, H.; Kinehara, Y.

    1993-01-01

    The Event Tree Method is one of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment Method. It introduces the accident scenario and the results of countermeasures. Therefore, it is effective in determining latent accident scenarios in the transfer. In this report the Event Tree Method is used to study the tunnel fire and its effects are evaluated. And this is the first trail of our Probabilistic Safety Assessment. The Event Tree for determining the early conditions when a car engine catches fire in a tunnel is examined. There are fire extinguishers, tunnel equipments for fire-fighting, fire stations and the heat-resisting property of the container for protecting from the fire. The protection level against the over 800degC-30min. fire accident is 88.3 %. (J.P.N.)

  19. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  20. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

    2016-09-13

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  1. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  2. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  3. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  4. Recent events in NPPs and incident reporting system (IRS) activity. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The IAEA convened the 1996 Joint Meeting to Exchange Information on Recent Events in Nuclear Power Plants and the Technical Committee-Annual Meeting of the Incident Reporting System (IRS) national co-ordinators, organized jointly with the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the OECD in Paris, France from 22-26 April 1996. These consecutive meetings took place at the OECD Headquarters, 2 rue Andre Pascal. The main objective of the first meeting (22-24 April 1996) was to exchange and discuss information on recent events which occurred in NPPs. The second meeting (25-26 April 1996) was devoted to the IAEA and NEA activity in the framework of the IRS. The main issues of the programme at the meetings were as follows: in-depth discussion on NPP recent events, presented by the participants; panel discussion on operational safety experience issues identified by the participants; IAEA and NEA activities on IRS subjects in 1995-1996 and plans for the future; issues from the inter-agency's IRS Advisory Committee. Annexes I and II provide more information on the programme at the meetings. A list of participants is given in Annex III (50 participants from 22 countries and 3 international organization). Annexes IV and V provide information on national presentations on recent events. Figs, tabs

  5. Genome Sequencing of Pediatric Medulloblastoma Links Catastrophic DNA Rearrangements with TP53 Mutations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rausch, Tobias; Jones, David T. W.; Zapatka, Marc; Stütz, Adrian M.; Zichner, Thomas; Weischenfeldt, Joachim; Jäger, Natalie; Remke, Marc; Shih, David; Northcott, Paul A.; Pfaff, Elke; Tica, Jelena; Wang, Qi; Massimi, Luca; Witt, Hendrik; Bender, Sebastian; Pleier, Sabrina; Cin, Huriye; Hawkins, Cynthia; Beck, Christian; von Deimling, Andreas; Hans, Volkmar; Brors, Benedikt; Eils, Roland; Scheurlen, Wolfram; Blake, Jonathon; Benes, Vladimir; Kulozik, Andreas E.; Witt, Olaf; Martin, Dianna; Zhang, Cindy; Porat, Rinnat; Merino, Diana M.; Wasserman, Jonathan; Jabado, Nada; Fontebasso, Adam; Bullinger, Lars; Rücker, Frank G.; Döhner, Konstanze; Döhner, Hartmut; Koster, Jan; Molenaar, Jan J.; Versteeg, Rogier; Kool, Marcel; Tabori, Uri; Malkin, David; Korshunov, Andrey; Taylor, Michael D.; Lichter, Peter; Pfister, Stefan M.; Korbel, Jan O.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic rearrangements are thought to occur progressively during tumor development. Recent findings, however, suggest an alternative mechanism, involving massive chromosome rearrangements in a one-step catastrophic event termed chromothripsis. We report the whole-genome sequencing-based analysis of

  6. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    -event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...

  7. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...... of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...

  8. Genesis of catastrophic contingencies: etiopathogenesis of disasters

    OpenAIRE

    Morales-Soto, Nelson; Academia Nacional de Medicina. Lima, Perú. Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Peruana de Medicina de Emergencias y Desastres. Lima, Perú. Médico emergenciólogo; Alfaro-Basso, Daniel; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Peruana de Medicina de Emergencias y Desastres. Lima, Perú. Hospital Regional Sur, Fuerza área del Perú. Arequipa, Perú. Médico emergenciólogo

    2008-01-01

    Peru has repeatedly been hit by various disasters that have generated losses of life and extensive material that interfere with the development process, where the poor are the most vulnerable to these events. Nature can be the cause of many disasters as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, avalanches, El Niño phenomenon, flooding rivers, droughts, etc. They can also be caused by man into accidentally (fires, chemical accidents, nuclear or mass transportation) or intentional ...

  9. POP-ART: thermodynamically correct activated event sampling in complex materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubynsky, M. V.; Vocks, Henk; Mousseau, Normand; Barkema, G. T.

    2006-03-01

    Dynamics of complex systems with a rugged energy landscape can be represented as a sequence of rare activated events during which the system jumps between different potential energy minima. The activation-relaxation technique (ART) [1] is an efficient method of sampling such events; however, because of an unknown bias in selecting these events it cannot easily provide thermodynamical information. We present a modification of ART, the properly obeying probability ART (POP-ART) [2]. POP-ART combines short molecular dynamics runs with ART-like activated moves, with an additional accept/reject step designed to satisfy detailed balance and thus reproduce correct thermodynamics. Both correctness and efficiency of the method have been tested using a variety of systems. We mention briefly some ways of extending the approach to obtain correct dynamics as well.[1] G.T. Barkema and N. Mousseau, Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 4358 (1996)[2] H. Vocks, M.V. Chubynsky, G.T. Barkema and N. Mousseau, J. Chem. Phys., accepted

  10. Chronicle of a death foretold: a case of catastrophic vascular Behcet's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Elitzur, Yair; Korach, Amit; Hiller, Nurith; Chajek-Shaul, Tova

    2007-03-01

    A 20-year-old man with Behcet's disease characterized by recurrent arterial aneurysms presented with a new aortic root aneurysm. This patient previously had aneurysms of the coronary arteries and vein, as well as ruptured renal artery aneurysm. Chronic maintenance immunosuppressive therapy was recommended due to the catastrophic nature of the disease, which the patient refused to take. The patient died shortly after admission. This case demonstrates the unique catastrophic natural history of vascular Behcet's disease with recurrent life-threatening arterial events, and this case stresses the therapeutic dilemma of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy in selected patients.

  11. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  14. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic

  15. Preventing catastrophes in spatially extended systems through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Further, we outline our analysis on the possible mechanisms behind the occurrence of catastrophes and how the ... The equation has also been utilized in seismology to model the two plates in a geological fault [4]. .... now the central results obtained from our extensive numerical simulations [7]. 3. Spatiotemporal patterns in ...

  16. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  17. What Is the Price of Catastrophic Wildfire?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; Thomas P. Holmes

    2001-01-01

    We modeled and analyzed the economic impacts of the six weeks of large, catastrophic wild-fires in northeastern Florida in June and July 1998, among Florida's most devastating in recent history. The result of the unusually strong El Níño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1998, the Florida wildfires produced economic impacts of at least $600 million, similar in...

  18. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    ... Management Agency, United States Department of Agriculture, Beacon Facility, Stop 0812, Room 421, P.O. Box... 12866 The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has determined that this rule is not-significant for the... is definite, and whether ACRSI will be implemented before the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  19. Eventos catastróficos associados ao tratamento da comunicação interatrial tipo ostium secundum: razões para não se subestimar este tipo de cardiopatia congênita Catastrophic events associated to the surgical treatment of ostium secundum atrial septal defects: reasons for not underestimating this type of congenital cardiopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto B. Evora

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: O presente trabalho clínico foi motivado pela frustrante experiência de quatro pacientes operados para o tratamento cirúrgico da comunicação interatrial tipo ostium secundum (CIA-II, que vieram a falecer em condições extremamente dramáticas. MÉTODO: Estudo retrospectivo embasado em dados de prontuários. As pesquisas bibliográficas incluíram: tromboembolismo paradoxal (cerebral, pulmonar ou mesentérico, malformações vasculares do sistema nervoso central e conexões anômalas das veias cavas. Estas pesquisas da literatura foram embasadas em possíveis eventos, inesperados e catastróficos, que levaram quatro pacientes ao óbito. RESULTADOS: Os quatros pacientes, todos do sexo feminino, foram submetidos a atriosseptorrafia com tempo de parada cardíaca isquêmica inferior a 20 minutos, em circulação extracorpórea. As causas de óbito foram: isquemia intestinal não-oclusiva, ruptura de aneurisma cerebral de artéria comunicante anterior, cor pulmonale com hipertensão arterial e tromboembolismo e um provável tromboembolismo cerebral em uma criança que precisou ser reoperada pela drenagem da veia cava inferior em átrio esquerdo. CONCLUSÃO: A lição final deste trabalho é: "Não subestime a comunicação interatrial em cirurgia cardíaca!".OBJECTIVE: The present article was motivated by the frustrating experiences with four patients who underwent surgical treatment of ostium secundum atrial septal defect (ASD-II and who died in extremely dramatic circumstances. METHOD: This is a retrospective study based on clinical data. The bibliographical researche included: paradoxical thromboembolism (cerebral, lung or mesenteric, central nervous system vascular malformations and anomalous vena cava connections. This research was based on possible events, unexpected and catastrophic, that could have directly caused the patients' deaths. RESULTS: All patients were female, the operations were performed under cardiopulmonary

  20. Prototype Training Materials for Acceptance Criteria of Maintenance ASAP Events Occurring Within Social Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, J. C.

    2004-01-01

    The aviation maintenance community is at a crossroads with respect to implementing the Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP). While there is considerable interest, several key issues have emerged that cast doubt on how to assure a successful implementation, including buy-in from all levels of the company and training for key participants. There are two objectives for the present report. The first is to provide an examination of limits (or more properly, examples) of the degree of acceptability of more problematic events for risk-based decisions within the current ASAP guidelines. The second objective is to apply these limits of community standards to a set of further refined ASAP training scenarios.

  1. Material-dependent and material-independent selection processes in the frontal and parietal lobes: an event-related fMRI investigation of response competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazeltine, Eliot; Bunge, Silvia A.; Scanlon, Michael D.; Gabrieli, John D E.

    2003-01-01

    The present study used the flanker task [Percept. Psychophys. 16 (1974) 143] to identify neural structures that support response selection processes, and to determine which of these structures respond differently depending on the type of stimulus material associated with the response. Participants performed two versions of the flanker task while undergoing event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Both versions of the task required participants to respond to a central stimulus regardless of the responses associated with simultaneously presented flanking stimuli, but one used colored circle stimuli and the other used letter stimuli. Competition-related activation was identified by comparing Incongruent trials, in which the flanker stimuli indicated a different response than the central stimulus, to Neutral stimuli, in which the flanker stimuli indicated no response. A region within the right inferior frontal gyrus exhibited significantly more competition-related activation for the color stimuli, whereas regions within the middle frontal gyri of both hemispheres exhibited more competition-related activation for the letter stimuli. The border of the right middle frontal and inferior frontal gyri and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) were significantly activated by competition for both types of stimulus materials. Posterior foci demonstrated a similar pattern: left inferior parietal cortex showed greater competition-related activation for the letters, whereas right parietal cortex was significantly activated by competition for both materials. These findings indicate that the resolution of response competition invokes both material-dependent and material-independent processes.

  2. Technical Meeting on Impact of Fukushima Event on Current and Future Fast Reactor Designs. Working Material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The overall purpose of the Technical Meeting was to recognize and analyse the implications of the accident occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station on current and future fast neutron systems design and operation. The aim was to provide a global forum for discussing the principal lessons learned from this event, and thus to review safety principles and characteristics of existing and future fast neutron concepts, especially in relation with extreme natural events which potentially may lead to severe accident scenarios. The participants also presented and discussed innovative technical solutions, design features and countermeasures for design extension conditions - including earthquakes, tsunami and other extreme natural hazards - which can enhance the safety level of existing and future fast neutron systems. Furthermore, the meeting gave the opportunity to present advanced methods for the evaluation of the robustness of plants against design extension conditions. Another important goal of this TM was to discuss how to harmonize safety approaches and goals for next generation’s fast reactors. Finally, the meeting was intended to identify areas where further research and development in nuclear safety, technology and engineering in the light of the Fukushima accident are needed. In the frame of the implementation of its Nuclear Safety Action Plan endorsed by all Member States, the IAEA will consider these areas as potential technical topics for new Coordinated Research Projects, to be launched in the near future

  3. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertently by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 buildup, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that both regional and global catastrophic risks must be taken into consideration in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risks is proposed. (author)

  4. Supplemental material: afterburner for generating light (anti-)nuclei with QCD-inspired event generators in pp collisions

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This note complements the paper titled: ``Production of deuterons, tritons, $^{3}$He nuclei and their anti-nuclei in pp collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$~=~0.9, 2.76 and 7~TeV'' with additional material related to Monte Carlo simulations necessary to compare the results with lower energy experiments. It describes a coalescence-based afterburner for QCD-inspired event generators, which allows the generation of light nuclei, hyper-nuclei and their charge conjugates in proton--proton (pp) collisions at LHC energies. The event generators with the afterburner are able to reproduce the differential cross sections of light (anti-)nuclei ($A<4)$ with the same degree of agreement as those of protons and anti-protons at the same momentum per nucleon. They also explain the transverse momentum dependence of the coalescence parameters as the result of hard scattering effects.

  5. Sorbent materials for rapid remediation of wash water during radiological event relief

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jolin, William C.; Kaminski, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Procedures for removing harmful radiation from interior and exterior surfaces of homes and businesses after a nuclear or radiological disaster may generate large volumes of radiologically contaminated waste water. Rather than releasing this waste water to potentially contaminate surrounding areas, it is preferable to treat it onsite. Retention barrels are a viable option because of their simplicity in preparation and availability of possible sorbent materials. This study investigated the use of aluminosilicate clay minerals as sorbent materials to retain 137Cs, 85Sr, and 152Eu. Vermiculite strongly retained 137Cs, though other radionuclides displayed diminished affinity for the surface. Montmorillonite exhibited increased affinity to sorb 85Sr and 152Eu in the presence of higher concentrations of 137Cs. To simulate flow within retention barrels, vermiculite was mixed with sand and used in small-scale column experiments. The GoldSim contaminate fate module was used to model breakthrough and assess the feasibility of using clay minerals as sorbent materials in retention barrels. The modeled radionuclide breakthrough profiles suggest that vermiculite-sand and montmorillonite-sand filled barrels could be used for treatment of contaminated water generated from field operations.

  6. Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in high school and college football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P; Tacchetti, Robin L; Cantu, Robert C; Knowles, Sarah B; Mueller, Frederick O

    2006-08-01

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in football are rare but tragic events. To update the incidence of catastrophic cervical injuries in scholastic football players and identify new injury patterns. Descriptive epidemiology study. The authors retrospectively reviewed 196 incidents of catastrophic high school and collegiate football injuries reported to the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research during 13 academic years (September 1989 through June 2002). There were 15.08 direct catastrophic cervical spine injuries in scholastic football participants per year, an incidence of 1.10 and 4.72 injuries per 100 000 high school and 100 000 college participants, respectively. Seventy-six athletes had quadriplegia (5.85 per year), 0.50 per 100 000 high school players and 0.82 per 100 000 college players. Spear tackling by players on defense continued to be the predominant mechanism of injury causing quadriplegia. Five athletes had a Brown-Séquard-like syndrome; only 1 made a full recovery. One athlete with Brown-Séquard-like syndrome and permanent neurologic symptoms reported a cervical cord neurapraxia event before the study period. Forty-three athletes (3.31 per year) had diagnosed cervical cord neurapraxia. In addition to hyperflexion and hyperextension injuries, axial forces were found to cause cervical cord neurapraxia. Sixteen of the 43 athletes returned to football after a cervical cord neurapraxia episode, and none of the 16 suffered a permanent quadriplegic event. Nine athletes sustained an isolated injury at the C1 or C2 level, and 7 sustained a combined injury at the C1, or C2 level and at a subaxial level. The total number of quadriplegic events for high school and college football players is approximately 6 per year, with a higher incidence at the college level. Cervical cord neurapraxia can be caused by hyperflexion, hyperextension, and axial compression forces. Upper level cervical injuries involving the atlas and axis can occur in

  7. Personality and Temperament Correlates of Pain Catastrophizing in Young Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Anja; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of…

  8. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  9. Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2004-01-01

    Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

  10. Topical study on IRS events involving foreign material intrusion in plant systems. First issue. Report of a consultants meeting. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Recent exchange of operational safety experience among countries, within the framework of the IRS, revealed a noticeable increase in incidents involving foreign material intrusion (FMI) in nuclear power plant systems. These incidents appeared to have safety impact, sometimes widespread, on many systems and components, including the reactor core, control rods, the secondary side, and other support systems such as the electrical, air, and water systems. Notwithstanding the economic penalties and the operational problems that can arise from the FMI, many events indicated severe component damages, challenges to safety systems and to fuel integrity. Difficulties encountered with the removal of foreign material present further challenges due to the long term effects of such material remaining in the system and interacting with either fuel cladding, with the potential of releasing fission products in coolant systems, or with the system pressure boundary with the potential for material wear and sudden failure of the pressure boundary. The FMI topic was, therefore, one of a number of topics that was recommended by the TCM in 1996 for investigation. A consultant meeting was held at the IAEA during the period 14-18 April 1997 to address this topic. Figs

  11. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  12. On a possibility of explosive material erosion under conditions of ITER disruption event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdakov, A. V.; Chagin, M. N.; Filippov, V. V.; Koidan, V. S.; Mekler, K. I.; Melnikov, P. I.; Postupaev, V. V.; Rovenskikh, A. F.; Shcheglov, M. A.; Tsigutkin, K. V.; Wuerz, H.

    1996-10-01

    On the basis of the modeling experiments of hot plasma influence on the graphite and tungsten materials performed on the GOL-3 device, an analysis was made of a possibility for explosive erosion to occur under ITER disruption conditions. In this analysis, the threshold value for explosive erosion obtained in the GOL-3 experiments was taken into account. Then the volumetric energy release was calculated for a hot plasma ( T = 1-20 keV) reaching the target at the limit of irradiating flux close to the conditions of ITER disruption (an energy flux of up to 140 MJ/m 2). It is shown that under such conditions, erosion can reach values much higher than those in the case of erosion under the effect of a plasma with lower temperature but with the same energy density.

  13. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  14. Synchronizing Federal Operational Planning for National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    overwhelm human capacity. A developing genre is developing in the literature that advocates the shift from interagency planning to multi-sector...catastrophe absorbed these resources as if there was no end; everyone watched the response effort on TV and witnessed the level of confusion and...in Katrina. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38 (4), 692–714. Bongar, B., Brown, L. M., Beutler, L. E., Breckenridge, J. N., & Zimbardo, P. G

  15. Catastrophe risks: the case of seisms

    OpenAIRE

    Kast, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Catastrophes and risks have had a great influence on the evolution of human development. We analyze behaviors in front of risks, then we consider some basic principles that have guided private and public behaviors. Managing risks has become a specialty for finance and insurance, but they are not the only institutions that allow to confront them. We conclude on an example of how public funds, private insurance and reinsurance companies can work together and use financial markets...

  16. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  17. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  18. Genomic catastrophism and the origin of vertebrate immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A L

    1999-01-01

    Genomic catastrophism is the belief that unique genetic events, unlike those observed in recent evolutionary history, played a key role in the origin of vertebrate adaptations. Catastrophist hypotheses have been particularly popular is accounting for the origin of vertebrate specific immunity. Two major such hypotheses involve genome duplication by polyploidization and horizontal gene transfer. Recent analyses lead to decisive rejection of the widely cited hypothesis that the vertebrate genome underwent two rounds of genome duplication, and theoretical considerations suggest that genome duplication is unlikely to lead to new adaptive advances. Likewise, the evidence that key elements of the vertebrate immune system arose by horizontal transfer from a bacterium or by incorporation of a transposable element into the vertebrate genome remains relatively weak. Thus, at present, a uniformitarian view of the origin of the vertebrate immune system seems more reasonable, especially given the longer time-frame for vertebrate evolution indicated by molecular data.

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  20. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  1. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  2. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  3. Morbidity and mortality from hazardous materials events in the personal services industry, 1993-2001: a follow-up report from the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, D Kevin; Berkowitz, Zahava; Kaye, Wendy E

    2005-05-01

    An estimated 8% of acute hazardous materials (HazMat) events that occur annually in the United States involve victims. Little information is available in the literature pinpointing which industries are associated with these acute events. Data from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system were analyzed to determine which industry categories had the highest proportion of events with victims. These data were collected from 17 state health departments that participated in the HSEES system from 1993 through 2001. During 1993 through 2001, 53,142 HazMat events occurred, of which 51,989 involved actual releases. Of these events with actual releases, 4,324 (8.3%) involved victims. Of the 14 major industrial categories analyzed, personal services-with 1,311 total events, including 468 with victims-had the highest major industrial category proportion of events with victims (35.7%). This high proportion of events with victims was associated mainly with the following three personal services subcategories: private households; laundry, cleaning, and garment services; and hotels and motels. Most of the victims injured in personal services events involved members of the general public. The most frequently reported symptom was respiratory irritation. The causal factors leading to most releases were operator error, followed by deliberate/illegal damage. Targeting the personal services industries with appropriate prevention strategies may be an effective way to help begin reducing the high proportion of events with victims in this category.

  4. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  5. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  6. Catastrophizing and poor sleep quality in early adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noone, Deirdre M; Willis, Thomas A; Cox, Jenny; Harkness, Frances; Ogilvie, Jayne; Forbes, Erika; Sterr, Annette; Gregory, Alice M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness has been investigated in adults and children, but little is known about adolescents. This article aimed to (a) investigate whether early adolescent girls catastrophized about consequences of sleeplessness, (b) describe topics in catastrophizing sequences, (c) examine the association between sleep quality and catastrophizing, and (d) assess whether puberty moderated this association. Girls (n = 115) between 11 and 12 years old completed adapted versions of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Pubertal Developmental Scale, and the Catastrophizing Interview. Twenty-four (21%) participants produced catastrophizing sequences, including concerns about school and mood. Sleep quality was associated with catastrophizing (β = 0.19, p = .042); however, puberty did not moderate this association (β = 0.15, p = .126). Findings highlight the importance of sleep-related cognitions in adolescent girls.

  7. Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Xiaolin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Bin; Lin, Zhongrong; Han, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2013-01-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk. -- Highlights: •Composition of SOM significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs. •Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil largely control the transport of PAHs. •The classic enrichment theory is invalid if anthropogenic CMs are abundant in the soil. •Organic petrology analysis introduced to study the fate and transport of PAHs. -- Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil, especially black carbon, largely control the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

  8. Introducing School Children in Nigeria to SPACE Technology As a Tool for Mitigation of National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabi, O.

    2014-12-01

    The zonal workshops organized by the space education outreach unit of the African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education utilized recent catastrophic events in Nigeria to attract pre-collegiate youths to space science and technology (SST). About 200 school children, aged between 10 and 18 years participated in the program which was coordinated at 2 different geopolitical zones in Nigeria in 2014. The 2-day event was packed with a lot of fun-filled, hands-on educational activities demonstrating the use of outer space to address prevailing socio-economic problems in the nation. The students were introduced to the Nigerian Earth Observation Satellites, and learned why these satellites cannot be used to track the school girls kidnapped by the terrorist group in the northern part of the country. They were also introduced to other types of satellites and participated in activities on the applications of TRMM satellite data to monitor flood events in Nigeria. The Global Positioning System (GPS) technology was introduced as a navigational tool to curb criminal activities in the country and participants used the hand-held GPS unit for geocaching. The program culminated in the launching of space clubs in all the participating schools and a teacher from each school received resource materials on DVD to nurture the space club. To assess the impact of the workshop on the knowledge level of the participants in space science, quiz competitions were administered and the average score of the students was above 70%. The enthusiasm displayed by the students, coupled with the brilliant performance in the evaluation tests, indicated that this method of informal education, that linked science to the alleviation of national disasters is viable, not only for stimulating the interest of Nigerian pre-collegiate youths in SST, but also to inspire the young learners and develop their interest in the Sciences, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).

  9. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, C. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.; O'Loughlin, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. B.; Freer, J. E.; Cloke, H. L.

    2014-06-01

    Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and

  10. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  11. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  12. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  13. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  14. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  15. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  16. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals : Stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that

  17. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

    2015-07-01

    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  18. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  19. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  20. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  1. Iranian Household Financial Protection against Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadam, M Nekoei; Banshi, M; Javar, M Akbari; Amiresmaili, M; Ganjavi, S

    2012-01-01

    Background: Protecting households against financial risks is one of objectives of any health system. In this regard, Iran’s fourth five year developmental plan act in its 90th article, articulated decreasing household’s exposure to catastrophic health expenditure to one percent. Hence, this study aimed to measure percentage of Iranian households exposed to catastrophic health expenditures and to explore its determinants. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was carried out retrospectively. Households whose financial contributions to the health system exceeded 40% of disposable income were considered as exposed to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare expenditures were examined by logistic regression and chi-square test. Results: Of 39,088 households, 80 were excluded due to absence of food expenditures. 2.8% of households were exposed to catastrophic health expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare were utilizing ambulatory, hospital, and drug addiction cessation services as well as consuming pharmaceuticals. Socioeconomics characteristics such as health insurance coverage, household size, and economic status were other determinants of exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Conclusion: Iranian health system has not achieved the objective of reducing catastrophic healthcare expenditure to one percent. Inefficient health insurance coverage, different fee schedules practiced by private and public providers, failure of referral system are considered as probable barriers toward decreasing households’ exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. PMID:23193508

  2. Guide to the declaration procedure and coding system for criteria concerning significant events related to safety, radiation protection or the environment, applicable to basic nuclear installations and the transport of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacoste, Andre-Claude

    2005-01-01

    This guide notably contains various forms associated with the declaration of significant events, and explanations to fill them in: significant event declaration form for a basic nuclear installation, significant event declaration form for radioactive material transport, significant event report for a basic nuclear installation, significant event report for radioactive material transport, declaration criteria for significant events related to the safety of non-PWR basic nuclear installations, declaration criteria for significant events related to PWR safety, significant events declared further to events resulting in group 1 unavailability and non-compliance with technical operating specifications, declaration criteria for significant events concerning radiation protection for basic nuclear installations, declaration criteria for significant events concerning environmental protection, applicable to basic nuclear installations, and declaration criteria for significant events concerning radioactive material transport

  3. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  4. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  5. Photography and nuclear catastrophe. The visual representation of the occurrences in Hiroshima/Nagasaki and Chernobyl; Fotografie und atomare Katastrophe. Die visuelle Repraesentation der Ereignisse von Hiroshima/Nagasaki und Tschernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerkner, Daniel

    2014-02-13

    The dissertation project seeks to analyse the photographic positions that deal with the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the accident of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. This focus includes press photographs of the events as well as artistic, documentary and touristic images that take an approach towards the disasters often years after and hereby form iconographic or material references to the events. The study reveals central strategies for photographic images of atomic catastrophes, be they of military or civil nature. It is the inability to visualize non-visible nuclear rays or the complexity of processes on an atomic level that has turned out to be crucial. This incapacity of making images, a paradigm of invisibility, substantially coins the cultural role of the events. The question of how a society deals with these abstract potentials of nuclear technology has turned out to be always anew of high relevance in regard to ecological, social and technological policies of images.

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: The current management approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-04-01

    The current recommendation for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) management is the standard triple therapy with anticoagulation (AC), glucocorticoids (GCs), plasma exchange (PE), and/or intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs). Of note, only AC has a significant effect on the prognosis of these patients. However, from the experimental or basic point of view, there is only indirect evidence to advocate the use of these immunomodulatory therapies (GC, PE, and IVIG) in CAPS. Recently, there have been reports of severe or refractory CAPS patients treated with the monoclonal antibodies rituximab and eculizumab. The first blocks CD20, a surface protein expressed on the cytoplasmic membrane of B cells, and decreases the generation of pathogenic autoantibodies such as antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. The second binds with high affinity to C5 complement protein, inhibiting its cleavage and thus preventing the generation of C5b-C9 complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    individual tubulin dimers, an ignored. In this cap model, GTP hydrolysis is assumed to be stochastic and uncoupled to microtubule growth. Different rates of hydrolysis are assumed for GTP in the cap's interior and for GTP at its boundary with hydrolyzed parts of the microtubule. Expectation values...... and probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... of microtubule growth before dilution. The GTP content of microtubules is found and its rare of hydrolysis is determined under the circumstances created in an experiment designed to measure this GTP content. It is concluded that this experiment's failure to register any GTP content is consistent with the model...

  8. The asteroids as outcomes of catastrophic collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farinella, P. (Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Merate, Italy); Paolicchi, P.

    1982-12-01

    The role of catastrophic collisions in the evoloution of the asteroids is discussed in detail, employing extrapolations of experimental results on the outcome of high velocity-impacts. The probability of impacts with a given projectile-to-target mass ratio for asteroids of different sizes is derived, taking into account different mass distributions of the asteroid population at the beginning of the collision process. The extrapolations show that collisional breakup against solid-state cohesions must be a widespread process for asteroids. The influence of self-gravitation and transfer of angular momentum during collision is shown to depend strongly on the traget size, resulting in a variety of possible outcomes in the intermediate size range. Comparason of the theoretical results with observations of asteroid rotations and shapes yields favorable results.

  9. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  10. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso

    2016-12-01

    To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. Descrever a magnitude do gasto catastrófico em medicamentos no Brasil segundo região, tamanho das famílias e composição familiar em termos de moradores em situação de dependência. Utilizados dados de inqu

  11. Catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions: Thermomechanics and implications for eruption triggering and maximum caldera dimensions on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, P. M.; de Silva, S. L.; Grosfils, E. B.; Parmigiani, J. P.

    2012-10-01

    Approximately every 100,000 years the Earth experiences catastrophic caldera-forming "supereruptions" that are considered to be one of the most hazardous natural events on Earth. Utilizing new temperature-dependent, viscoelastic numerical models that incorporate a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, we find that eruptive failure of the largest magma chambers is a function of the geometry of the overlying roof and the location of the brittle-ductile transition. In particular, the ductile halo created around the hot magma chamber buffers increasing overpressures and prevents pressure relief via magmatic injection from the magma chamber. The numerical results indicate that as chamber volume increases, the higher temperatures in the host rock and the decrease in the roof aspect ratio cause a shift from reservoir-triggered eruption to an external roof-triggered mechanism. Specifically, as overpressure increases within the largest magma chambers, extensive uplift in the overlying roof promotes the development of through-going faults that may trigger eruption and caldera collapse from above. We find that for magma chamber volumes > 103 km3, and roof aspect ratios (depth/width) thermomechanical models also provide an estimate of the maximum size of magma chamber growth in a pristine host material and, thus, an estimate of the maximum size of the resultant caldera. We find a maximum reservoir volume range of 104-105 km3 for shallow crustal magma chambers emplaced at depths to the top of the magma chamber of 3-7 km. These volumes produce maximum caldera areas of 103-104 km2, comparable to the largest calderas observed on Earth (e.g., Toba). These thermomechanical models offer critical new insight into the mechanics of catastrophic caldera collapse and provide a numerical construct for predicting how eruption is triggered in the largest crustal magma chambers.

  12. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  13. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle

  14. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

    2005-01-01

    To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

  15. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  16. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  17. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  18. Out of the wave: the meaning of suffering and relieved suffering for survivors of the tsunami catastrophe. An hermeneutic-phenomenological study of TV-interviews one year after the tsunami catastrophe, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxberg, Asa; Burman, Marianne; Guldbrand, Mona; Fridlund, Bengt; da Silva, António Barbosa

    2010-12-01

    The tsunami catastrophe, 26th December 2004, is one of a number of catastrophes that has stricken mankind. Climate reports forecast that natural disasters will increase in number in the future. Research on human suffering after a major catastrophe, using a caring science perspective, is scarce. The aim of the study was to explore the meaning of suffering and relieved suffering of survivors of the tsunami catastrophe, 26th December 2004. An explorative study design, inspired by the French philosopher Paul Ricoeur's hermeneutic-phenomenology, was used. Interviews made by the Swedish Television (SVT) in connection with the 1 year anniversary were carried out on site in the disaster area and in Sweden. The text analysis revealed four main themes: 'An incomprehensible event', 'A heavy burden', 'Help that helps', and to 'Being changed in a changed life situation'. The findings were mainly interpreted in light of Paul Ricoeur's thinking on suffering, quilt, forgiveness, time and narrative. The first year after the loss of loved ones in the tsunami catastrophe, 2004, was like starting an inner as well as an outer journey. This journey was experienced as living with the heavy burden of an incomprehensible event. Help that helped was mediated by consolers who endured the suffering of the other. An 'enduring courage' is a key moral virtue to encounter the alienation of the sufferer and how it in turn alienates from the sufferer. It is also important to recognize that the complexity of the world of those who have lost loved ones in major catastrophes includes possibilities for reconciliation with the loss. The reconciliation creates hope that opens up for being changed in a changed life situation. © 2010 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences © 2010 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  19. Optimal management program for asbestos containing building materials to be available in the event of a disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young-Chan; Hong, Won-Hwa

    2017-06-01

    The safe management and disposal of asbestos is a matter of considerable importance. A large number of studies have been undertaken to quantify the issue of waste management following a disaster. Nevertheless, there have been few (if any) studies concerning asbestos waste, covering the amount generated, the cost of disposal, and the degree of hazard incurred. Thus, the current study focuses on developing a program for the management of Asbestos Containing Building Materials (ACBMs), which form the source of asbestos waste in the event of a disaster. The study will also discuss a case study undertaken in a specific region in Korea in terms of: (1) the location of ACBM-containing buildings; (2) types and quantities of ACBMs; (3) the cost of ACBM disposal; (4) the amount of asbestos fiber present during normal times and during post-disaster periods; (5) the required order in which ACBM-containing buildings should be dismantled; and (6) additional greenhouse gases generated during ACBM removal. The case study will focus on a specific building, with an area of 35.34m 2 , and will analyze information concerning the abovementioned points. In addition, the case study will focus on a selected area (108 buildings) and the administrative district (21,063 buildings). The significance of the program can be established by the fact that it visibly transmits information concerning ACBM management. It is a highly promising program, with a widespread application for the safe management and optimal disposal of asbestos in terms of technology, policy, and methodology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  1. [Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aracena-Genao, Belkis; González-Robledo, María Cecilia; González-Robledo, Luz María; Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Nigenda-López, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    To document the status of operational and managerial processes of the Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses (FPGC), as well as to describe its evolution, and to explore the relationship between covered diseases and the Mexican health profile. This is a joint management study, which included a qualitative and a quantitative phase. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants. We also analyzed the records of CNPSS, the hospital discharge and mortality data bases. Fifty two percent of the states take twice as long to report and validate the cases. From 2004-2009 the FPGC increased its coverage from 6 to 49 interventions, that means a spending increase of 2 306.4% in nominal terms and 1 659.3% in real terms. The HIV/AIDS was the intervention prioritized with 39.3% and Mexico City had the highest proportion of expenditure (25.1%). A few diseases included in the health profile are covered by the FPGC. The review of the inclusion criteria of diseases is urgent, so as to cover diseases of epidemiological importance.

  2. Coordinated research programme on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events. V. 1. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The present volume is a collection of progress reports which have been submitted within the scope of the CRP on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events including seismic related papers and man-induced events (explosions and airplane crash). It includes papers concerned with experience related to RBMK equipment testing and calculations of seismic resistance, soil-structure interactions analysis, safety assurance, aircraft impact qualification and other external events for RBMK type NPP, seismic stability of NPPs in Eastern Europe, probabilistic assessment of NPP safety under aircraft impact, dynamic analysis of NPPs, screening of external hazards for NPP

  3. Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

    2004-01-01

    Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

  4. Safety of the Transport of Radioactive Materials for Civilian Use in France. Lessons learned by IRSN from analysis of significant events reported in 2012 and 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    Every two years since 2008, IRSN has published in a report the lessons learnt from its analysis of significant events involving the transport of radioactive materials for civilian purposes in France. Each year in France, some 770,000 shipments of radioactive materials for civilian use are done by road, railway, inland waterway, sea and air. For 2012 and 2013, the report did not find evidence of degradation compared with previous years, particularly for industrial activities in the nuclear power industry, which raise the most significant safety issues. Since 1999, approximately a hundred events are reported each year, which represents, on average, one event per 10,000 packages transported. IRSN notes that none of the events that occurred over the two years had an impact on public health or environmental protection. Events involving a defect in the closure of spent fuel shipping packages and deviations concerning the content of the packages, which had increased in 2010 and 2011, are now down. It would seem to confirm that the organizational measures implemented by those sending the packages have had a positive impact. Previous trends which brought to light failures in the preparation of packages and their handling, in particular in the medical sector, have been confirmed. Even if most of the packages concerned contain low levels of radioactivity, recurrence of these events confirms the value of implementing appropriate preventive actions on the part of the companies involved. Lastly, descriptions of several typical events that occurred in 2012 and 2013 provide illustrations of the analyses that were performed on actual cases

  5. An Update on Football Deaths and Catastrophic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.; Blyth, Carl S.

    1986-01-01

    The latest figures (1985) indicate a continued decline in football deaths and catastrophic injuries, which is credited to a ban on spearing and to a helmet standard. Guidelines for prevention of fatalities and injuries are listed. (Author/MT)

  6. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  7. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Koppel, van de J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to

  8. Review of events occurring during the transport of radioactive material for the period 1984-1993. A report on the IAEA's EVTRAM database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    In 1988 the International Atomic Energy Agency initiated data collecting activities for accidents and incidents (EVTRAM), shipments (SHIPTRAM) and radiation exposure (EXTRAM) in connection with radioactive material transport. This publication reports on the data made available for the EVTRAM database by ten Member States regarding events occurring during the transport of radioactive material during the period 1984-1993. The main objectives of the EVATRAM database are to provide information to support evaluations of the effectiveness of the IAEA's Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material and provide a means of information exchange for any lessons learned. Member States providing data do so on a voluntary basis an report only those events that involve the safety features of packages being transported. The tables presented in this report are based solely on the data provided regarding 128 valid cases. Where it is meaningful to relate frequency tables this has been done in the section containing cross-tabulations; otherwise, the frequency tables are to be considered individually. Because it is neither complete nor comprehensive the data has severely limited uses for establishing trends or drawing conclusions. The statistical analyses performed are to be considered only in this light. Neither the data nor the tables may be cited as the basis for general, conclusive statements about radioactive material transport events. 4 refs, 5 tabs

  9. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  10. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  11. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky; Dmitry S. Lukin; Sergey V. Rogachev

    2015-01-01

    The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of spec...

  12. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  13. Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

    2016-12-01

    Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  15. Materials

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Wyk, Llewellyn V

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available community. The construction industry is a significantly consumer of materials, using 50 per cent of all products produced globally. Building materials is any material which is used for a construction purpose. Many of these materials are sources from natural...

  16. Offshore suspensions plume deposit as a stratigraphic signature of catastrophic river floods during the last 500 years: the case of the Amalfi coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molisso, Flavia; Esposito, Eliana; Porfido, Sabina; Sacchi, Marco; Violante, Crescenzo

    2010-05-01

    The Amalfi coast is a segment of the southern slope of the Sorrento Peninsula, a narrow and elevated mountain range (up to 1444 m) along the SW coastal zone of Italy. The Peninsula is deeply cut by a complex of bedrock rivers and channels characterized by relatively high energy of the relief, small catchment areas and pronounced disequilibrium of the stream profiles. There is evidence suggesting that the dynamic regime of the alluvial fans and associated fan-deltas of the Amalfi coast are controlled by episodic, but often catastrophic sediment and water discharges that have caused repeated flooding of the fans and accumulation of large volumes of sediment in the fan-deltas over last centuries. Documentary source materials show that, since the 16th century, at least 106 severe floods occurred over the Amalfi coast. The most dramatic episodes occurred between XVI and XX centuries (1581, 1588, 1773, 1899, 1954 events), caused severe geomorphologic change, damage to buildings and a high number of victims. The flood events triggered landslide, mud flow, debris flow and rock falls phenomena as well as denudation and erosion upstream. This research is based on the of stratigraphic study of marine gravity cores, and high-resolution seismic profiles acquired in the fan-delta deposits that develop at the mouth of the hydrographic system of the Amalfi coast. Particularly, the integrated stratigraphic analysis of prodelta deposits, shows that there is a consistent correlation between documental evidence of historical catastrophic floodings and the occurrence of individual layers or claster of (2-3 cm thick) layers of suspension deposit associated with sustained hyperpycnal plumes (underflows) within the fan-delta sequence. The identification of suspension plume deposits, within fan-delta deposits off the cliffed Amalfi coasts, may thus be regarded as a useful tool in order to explore the occurrence of major flooding episodes back to stratigraphic record of the Late Holocene.

  17. SENTINEL EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Robida

    2004-09-01

    the surveyed persons agreed to disclosure of the event to a patient but this was the case in less than half of the occasions.Conclusions. The small number of reports of sentinel events, late or incomplete reporting of conducted analyses of root causes and plans for future prevention of these events and survey data showed the state of culture in the majority of hospitals. Fear of reporting and therefore, hiding of errors or ascribing errors to the »usual« complications of a disease or procedures, the reaction of leadership to quickly find a culprit for the event, disregarding a serious approach to analyze the event and taking measures for their future prevention leads to the culture of silence. Root cause analysis of the events showed that the reason frequently lies in systems and processes and not in individuals. Health care will never be without risks for patients. However, with an open approach without the blaming and shaming of individuals, implementation of reporting the events in hospitals and other health care facilities with clear goals of patient safety, standardization of equipment, materials, and processes and education on patient safety many sentinel events and medical errors could and should be prevented.

  18. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  19. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  20. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  1. Targeting the Mitotic Catastrophe Signaling Pathway in Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mc Gee, Margaret M.

    2015-01-01

    Mitotic catastrophe, as defined in 2012 by the International Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death, is a bona fide intrinsic oncosuppressive mechanism that senses mitotic failure and responds by driving a cell to an irreversible antiproliferative fate of death or senescence. Thus, failed mitotic catastrophe can promote the unrestrained growth of defective cells, thereby representing a major gateway to tumour development. Furthermore, the activation of mitotic catastrophe offers significant therapeutic advantage which has been exploited in the action of conventional and targeted anticancer agents. Yet, despite its importance in tumour prevention and treatment, the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe is not well understood. A better understanding of the signals that determine cell fate following failed or defective mitosis will reveal new opportunities to selectively target and enhance the programme for therapeutic benefit and reveal biomarkers to predict patient response. This review is focused on the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe induction and signalling and highlights current strategies to exploit the process in cancer therapy. PMID:26491220

  2. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  3. Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Alan Flory

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Environmental impacts from carcass management are a significant concern globally. Despite a history of costly, ineffective, and environmentally damaging carcass disposal efforts, large animal carcass disposal methods have advanced little in the past decade. An outbreak today will likely be managed with the same carcass disposal techniques used in the previous decades and will likely result in the same economic, health, and environmental impacts. This article overviews the results of one field test that was completed in Virginia (United States using the aboveground burial (AGB technique and the disposal of 111 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD infected sheep in Tunisia using a similar methodology. Materials and Methods: Researchers in the United States conducted a field test to assess the environmental impact and effectiveness of AGB in decomposing livestock carcasses. The system design included a shallow trench excavated into native soil and a carbonaceous base placed on the bottom of the trenches followed by a single layer of animal carcasses. Excavated soils were subsequently placed on top of the animals, and a vegetative layer was established. A similar methodology was used in Tunisia to manage sheep infected with FMDs, Peste des Petits Ruminants virus, and Bluetongue Virus. Results: The results of the field test in the United States demonstrated a significant carcass degradation during the 1-year period of the project, and the migration of nutrients below the carcasses appears to be limited thereby minimizing the threat of groundwater contamination. The methodology proved practical for the disposal of infected sheep carcasses in Tunisia. Conclusions: Based on the analysis conducted to date, AGB appears to offer many benefits over traditional burial for catastrophic mortality management. Ongoing research will help to identify limitations of the method and determine where its application during large disease outbreaks or natural

  4. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  5. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

  6. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  7. Materialism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnyk, Andrew

    2012-05-01

    Materialism is nearly universally assumed by cognitive scientists. Intuitively, materialism says that a person's mental states are nothing over and above his or her material states, while dualism denies this. Philosophers have introduced concepts (e.g., realization and supervenience) to assist in formulating the theses of materialism and dualism with more precision, and distinguished among importantly different versions of each view (e.g., eliminative materialism, substance dualism, and emergentism). They have also clarified the logic of arguments that use empirical findings to support materialism. Finally, they have devised various objections to materialism, objections that therefore serve also as arguments for dualism. These objections typically center around two features of mental states that materialism has had trouble in accommodating. The first feature is intentionality, the property of representing, or being about, objects, properties, and states of affairs external to the mental states. The second feature is phenomenal consciousness, the property possessed by many mental states of there being something it is like for the subject of the mental state to be in that mental state. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:281-292. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1174 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Catastrophic Senescence of the Pacific Salmon Without Mutation-Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    We derive catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon from an aging model which was recently proposed by Stauffer. The model is based on the postulates of a minimum reproduction age and a maximal genetic lifespan. It allows for self-organization of a typical age of first reproduction and a typical age of death. Our Monte Carlo simulations of the population dynamics show that the model leads to catastrophic senescence for semelparous reproduction as it occurs in the case of salmon, to a more gradually increase of senescence for iteroparous reproduction.

  9. CATASTROPHIC FLANK COLLAPSE ON TA’U ISLAND AND SUBSEQUENT TSUNAMI: HAS THIS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 170 YEARS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun Williams

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ta’u, the easternmost inhabited island in the Samoan Islands archipelago, exhibits a series of down-faulted benches on its southern flank, believed to be the remnant of ~30 km3 catastrophic collapse. A historical map of Ta’u charted in 1839 during the United States Exploring Expedition, which did not show the benches, suggests that the event occurred less than 170 years ago. A collapse event of this magnitude would have generated a locally devastating tsunami, with possible impacts experienced at the regional level. However, no written or oral records of such an event exist. A number of key questions thus emerge, and formed the basis for this study. Did this event actually happen within the last 170 years, and if so, how and why could it have gone unnoticed? Or, is the event much older than the impression obtained from the literature? The catastrophic flank collapse was modeled using 100 m contour-resolution bathymetry data of the Ta’u region, coupled with rational assumptions made on the geometry of the failed mass. This enabled numerical landslide- tsunami simulation in the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT. The results indicate that if an event of this magnitude occurred in the last 170 years, it could not have gone unnoticed by local inhabitants. It thus seems likely that the initial survey conducted during the Exploring Expedition was inaccurate. Nevertheless, the well-preserved nature of the benches indicates collapse relatively recently and raises the possibility of future collapse.

  10. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  11. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  12. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  13. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  14. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  15. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  16. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  17. Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

    2015-12-22

    Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

  18. Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  20. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  1. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  2. Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, J.J.; MacMurdy, P.H.

    1980-12-01

    The List contains nine categories of events involving NRC licensed material or licensees. It is deliberately broad in scope for two main reasons. First, the list is designed to serve as a reference document. It is as complete and accurate as possible. Second, the list is intended to provide as broad a perspective of the nature of licensee-related events as possible. The nine categories of events are as follows: bomb-related events; intrusion events; missing and/or allegedly stolen events; transportation-related events; vandalism events; arson events; firearms-related events; sabotage events; and miscellaneous events

  3. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247...) ``providing an assessment of the current state of the market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United... appropriate and available, regarding natural catastrophes and the current state of the market for insurance...

  4. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  5. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  6. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  7. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  8. Catastrophic Intramedullary Abscess Caused by a Missed Congenital Dermal Sinus

    OpenAIRE

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-01-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. The...

  9. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  10. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  11. [Manfredonia (Southern Italy): a continuous catastrophe, newfound citizenship, and removal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malavasi, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This article concerns the history of Manfredonia (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), linked to the petrochemical industry owned by Eni (from 1960s to 1990s). The city suffered not only an important accident occurred in 1976 with arsenic dissemination, but also a continuous catastrophe. In the 1980s, the popular movement contributed to an improved citizenship, but also to rifts and conflicts. The petrochemical impact on community determined disruption in domestic and social relationships, divided memory, and removal.

  12. Lupus-Negative Libman-Sacks Endocarditis Complicated by Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtaza, Ghulam; Iskandar, Joy; Humphrey, Tara; Adhikari, Sujeen; Kuruvilla, Aneesh

    2017-04-01

    Libman-Sacks endocarditis is characterized by sterile and verrucous lesions that predominantly affect the aortic and mitral valves. In most cases, patients do not have significant valvular dysfunction. However, patients with significant valvular dysfunction may present with serious complications such as cardiac failure, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events. Recently, association of Libman-Sacks endocarditis with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) has been made. APS is most commonly defined by venous and arterial thrombosis, recurrent pregnancy loss, and thrombocytopenia. While the syndrome can be a primary syndrome, it is usually secondary to systemic lupus erythematosus. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) can be a life-threatening presentation of APS and can occur in 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome. We present a very rare case of a young female patient with lupus-negative Libman-Sacks endocarditis complicated by CAPS.

  13. Public insurance program impact on catastrophic health expenditure on acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-García, M; Vargas-Barrón, J; Bañuelos-Téllez, F; González-Pacheco, H; Fresno, C; Hernández-Lemus, E; Martínez-Ríos, M A; Vallejo, M

    2018-03-13

    ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has an important economic burden that poised the urgent need to evaluate its catastrophic medical expense. This study evaluates the first 5 years of the national health initiative called Popular Insurance (PI) at the National Institute of Cardiology in Mexico. Retrospective data analysis. STEMI patients with (n=317) and without (n=260) PI were selected. Analysed variables included socio-economical context, management care, cost evaluation and three outcomes (mortality, hospital readmission and therapeutic adherence). Descriptive statistical analyses, Kaplan-Meier survival and Support Vector Machine models were used accordingly. Treatment costs were higher for PI-covered individuals (P=0.022) and only 1.89% of them remained in debt, in contrast to 16.15% of those without PI. Statistically significant differences were found in relation to days in hospital wards (Pcatastrophic health challenging events. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Acknowledging Fascination with Catastrophe and Terrorism: September 11 and the Nuclear Destruction of Hiroshima/Nagasaki

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanouil Aretoulakis

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available At the end of the twentieth century there was a critical shift from prioritizing the anti-aesthetic and the “sublime” towards favoring beauty in aesthetic as well as political matters. In this context, the present article discusses the role of beauty and aesthetics in such major disasters as the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Hiroshima/Nagasaki nuclear bombings. More specifically, it posits that there is a morally unacceptable feeling of fascination when witnessing destructive events of such magnitude. On the other hand, aesthetic appreciation is paradoxically indispensable for an ethical assessment of man-made catastrophes. Keywords: Beauty, Hiroshima, 9/11, Terrorism, Aesthetic Judgment, Imagination, Ethics.

  15. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  16. A randomized-controlled trial of using a book of metaphors to reconceptualize pain and decrease catastrophizing in people with chronic pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Laura; McAuley, James; Moseley, G Lorimer

    2013-01-01

    Reconceptualization of pain and reduction of pain-related catastrophizing are primary objectives in chronic pain rehabilitation. Teaching people about the underlying biology of pain has been shown to facilitate these objectives. The objective of this study was to investigate whether written metaphor and story can be used to increase knowledge of the biology of pain and reduce pain-related catastrophizing. In this randomized single-blind partial cross-over controlled trial, 79 people with chronic pain received either a booklet of metaphors and stories conveying key pain biology concepts or a booklet containing advice on how to manage chronic pain according to established cognitive-behavioral principles. The primary outcome variables, pain biology knowledge and catastrophizing, were measured before randomization, at 3 weeks and at 3 months, at which time the control group was crossed over to receive the metaphors and stories booklet. Pain and disability were secondary outcome variables. The Metaphors group showed larger changes in both variables (time × group interactions: P < 0.01, effect size Cohen d = 0.7 for catastrophizing and 1.7 for pain biology knowledge). Gains were maintained for at least 3 months. Changes were replicated in the Advice group when crossed over. There was no change in pain or self-reported disability in either group. We conclude that providing educational material through metaphor and story can assist patients to reconceptualize pain and reduce catastrophizing. Metaphor and story could be used as a precurser to other interventions that target functional capacity.

  17. Influence of Catastrophizing and Personality Traits on Recalled Ratings of Acute Pain Experience in Healthy Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallegama, Ranjith Wasantha; Ariyasinghe, Sajjiv; Perera, Eranthi Dinoka; Treede, Rolf-Detlef

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether pain catastrophizing and personality traits bias recalled ratings of acute pain in an experimental tonic pain model. Fifty-six undergraduates (14 males) recruited from the University of Peradeniya (mean age 21.7 ± 0.8 SD years). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. They were subjected to two cold pressor tests (dominant and non-dominant hands) and pain threshold, maximum pain intensity, and pain tolerance were recorded. One-week later, the maximum pain intensities of both hands were recalled and percentage distortions in recalling were calculated. Based on a 180 s cutoff, two participants were considered pain-insensitive during the test and were excluded from the analysis. The maximum pain intensity was recalled with a moderate accuracy (Intraclass Correlation Coefficients = 0.68 for dominant and 0.59 for non-dominant hands). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that maximum pain intensity ( P  memory for painful events in healthy subjects was reasonably accurate over a period of 1 week. Pain catastrophizing biased pain recall, whereas among personality traits only neuroticism exhibited a weak positive association with the recalled ratings.

  18. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  19. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  20. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  1. The association of catastrophizing with quality-of-life outcomes in patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, LeeAnne B; Leary, Emily; Henderson, Wendy A

    2017-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a cognitive process characterized by a propensity to concentrate on and magnify the value of an actual or anticipated painful stimulus and negatively assesses one's ability to cope. Catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain-related outcomes. A cornerstone symptom of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is abdominal pain or discomfort. Also individuals with IBS have been reported to have a tendency to catastrophize. In a sample of individuals who suffer from IBS, we hypothesized that those individuals who catastrophize (catastrophizers) would have worse outcomes as compared to those who do not catastrophize (non-catastrophizers). One hundred and one adults with IBS (79% female, mean age 42 years, 97% Caucasian) were recruited from outpatient clinics and data were collected through self-report measures. Catastrophizing was measured with the catastrophizing subscale of the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, illness representations were measured with The Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R), psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory 18 (BSI-18), and health-related quality of life was measured using the Irritable Bowel Syndrome-Quality of Life (IBS-QOL) measure. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and multiple linear regression analyses were completed to describe participants, the associations of the variables of interest, and the unique relationship between psychosocial variables and HRQOL. Overall, participants reported poor HRQOL (M = 63.32, range 0-100). Catastrophizers differed significantly on IBS-QOL from non-catastrophizers (M = 48.98 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 78.53; p IPQ-R, specifically the consequences (M = 21.75 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 17.20; p < 0.001) and emotional representations (M = 20.90 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 15.43; p < 0.001). Catastrophizing was positively correlated with the consequences (r = .54; p < 0.01) and emotional

  2. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  3. Geochemical evidence for a catastrophic biotic event at the Frasnian/Famennian boundary in south China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Kun; Chatterton, B.D.E. (Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada)); Orth, C.J.; Attrep, M. Jr. (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)); Hongfei Hou (Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing (China)); Geldsetzer, H.H.J. (Geological Survey of Canada, Alberta (United States))

    1991-08-01

    A strong {delta}{sup 13}C anomaly coincides with a weak Ir anomaly at the Frasnian/Famennian (F/F) boundary exposed at Xiangtian, Guangxi, south China. The maximum whole-rock Ir abundance is 0.23 ppb (0.35 ppb on a carbonate-free basis) compared with averages of 0.016 and 0.044 ppb above and below the boundary interval. The {delta}{sup 13}C in carbonate abruptly shifts from a late Frasnian level of about +1{per thousand} to {minus}2.49 {per thousand}in the boundary interval and then abruptly returns to pre-boundary levels, suggesting a temporary reduction of surface-water biomass. A widely distributed (over at least several hundred kilometers) limestone breccia unit of possible wave-deposit origin is present directly below the boundary in south China. Enrichments of Al, V, Cr, As, and U, and a dip in the Mn abundance in the boundary interval indicate that reducing conditions might have been associated with the element enrichment. However, an alternative hypothesis is that oceanic impact(s) at the F/F boundary near south China provided the excess Ir and caused the biotic crisis and the formation of breccia deposits observed in the Late Devonian South China Sea.

  4. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

    2016-01-01

    in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend...

  5. Preparedness and catastrophic event management for the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    The devastating effects of terrorism are distinctly clear and realistic to our generation with the haunting September 11 attacks, the 2005 subway bombings in London, the 2009 attempted Christmas attack, and constant turmoil overseas. Therefore, it is...

  6. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    In order to provide a better understanding of how the surface transportation system is both : affected and utilized in an emergency situation, the U.S. Department of Transportation : Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Joint Program Office and t...

  7. Business continuity after catastrophic medical events: the Joplin medical business continuity report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, Paul K; Bringle, Dottie

    2012-01-01

    On May 22, 2011, The St Johns Mercy Medical Center in Joplin, MO, was destroyed by an F-5 tornado. There were 183 patients in the building at that time in this 367-bed Medical Center. The preparation and response were superbly done and resulted in many lives saved. This report is focused on the reconstitution phase of this disaster response, which includes how to restore business continuity. As 95 percent of our medical capacity resides in the private sector in the United States, we must have a proper plan for how to restore business continuity or face the reality of the medical business failing and not providing critical medical services to the community. A tornado in 2007 destroyed a medical center in Sumter County, GA, and it took more than 365 days to restore business continuity at a cost of $18M. The plan executed by the Mercy Medical System after the disaster in Joplin restored business continuity in 88 days and cost a total of $6.6M, with all assets being reusable. The recommendation from these lessons learned is that every county, state, and Federal Emergency Management Agency region has a plan on the shelf to restore business continuity and the means to be able to do so. The hard work that the State of Missouri and the Mercy Medical System did after this disaster can serve as a model for the nation in how to quickly recover from any loss of medical capability.

  8. Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

  9. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  10. The effect of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a computational interstellar dust system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liffman, K.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a the interstellar dust system are computed using a Monte Carlo computer model. The Monte Carlo code has as its basis an analytic solution of the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium, described by Liffman and Clayton (1989). The model is subjected to numerous different interstellar processes as it transfers from one interstellar phase to another. Collisional fragmentation was found to be the dominant physical process that shapes the size spectrum of interstellar dust. It was found that, in the diffuse cloud phase, 90 percent of the refractory material is locked up in the dust grains, primarily due to accretion in the molecular medium. This result is consistent with the observed depletions of silicon. Depletions were found to be affected only slightly by diffuse cloud accretion. 42 refs

  11. A thermal catastrophe in a resonantly heated coronal loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, P.C.H.; Kuperus, M.

    1983-01-01

    A theory for the thermal stability of hot coronal loops is presented, which is based on the resonant electrodynamic heating theory of Ionson (1982) and the evaporation/condensation scenario of Krall and Antiochos (1980). The theory predicts that gradual changes in the length of a loop or in its magnetic field strength can trigger catastrophic changes in the X-ray visibility of the loop, without the need for a change in the magnetic field topology. A natural explanation is thereby given for the observations of X-ray brightenings in loops and loop evacuations with coronal rain. (Auth.)

  12. Dissipative tunneling and orthogonality catastrophe in molecular transistors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braig, S.; Flensberg, Karsten

    2004-01-01

    of the charge on the molecule to the vibrational modes of the environment has on the I-V characteristics. We find that, for comparable characteristic length scales of the van der Waals and electrostatic interaction of the molecule with the environmental vibrational modes, the I-V characteristics...... are qualitatively changed from what one would expect from orthogonality catastrophe and develop a steplike discontinuity at the onset of conduction. For the case of very different length scales, we recover dissipation consistent with modeling the electrostatic forces as an external influence on the system comprised...

  13. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors....

  14. Catastrophic intramedullary abscess caused by a missed congenital dermal sinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-03-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. Therefore, further imaging work-up or consultation with a pediatric neurosurgeon is recommended following discovery of any atypical-looking dimples in the midline.

  15. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  16. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  17. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock - a case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieba, Bozena; Wegrzyn, Agnieszka; Mital, Andrzej; Szczepińska-Nowak, Maria; Lewicki, Lukasz; Chmielecki, Michał; Puchalski, Wiesław; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej

    2009-07-01

    A case of a 29-year-old woman 18 days after delivery with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome secondary (CAPS) due to undiagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus, leading to cardiogenic shock is reported. Laboratory evaluation revealed increased anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, antinuclear antibody and thrombocytopenia. Left ventricular ejection fraction was 20%, neurologic deficit and acute renal failure were also present. Cardiac involvement is common in CAPS, but cardiomyopathy due to microvascular thrombosis is rare. CAPS should be considered as a cause of acute heart failure in a women with systemic lupus erythematosus. In the presented case early therapy with anticoagulants, steroids, immunoglobulins and plasmaferesis was beneficial.

  18. Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly

    OpenAIRE

    Thibault, Katherine M.; Brown, James H.

    2008-01-01

    Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant spec...

  19. Doubly Reentrant Cavities Prevent Catastrophic Wetting Transitions on Intrinsically Wetting Surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Domingues, Eddy

    2017-06-05

    Omniphobic surfaces, i.e. which repel all known liquids, have proven of value in applications ranging from membrane distillation to underwater drag reduction. A limitation of currently employed omniphobic surfaces is that they rely on perfluorinated coatings, increasing cost and environmental impact, and preventing applications in harsh environments. There is, thus, a keen interest in rendering conventional materials, such as plastics, omniphobic by micro/nano-texturing rather than via chemical make-up, with notable success having been achieved for silica surfaces with doubly reentrant micropillars. However, we found a critical limitation of microtextures comprising of pillars that they undergo catastrophic wetting transitions (apparent contact angles, θr → 0° from θr > 90°) in the presence of localized physical damages/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. In response, a doubly reentrant cavity microtexture is introduced, which can prevent catastrophic wetting transitions in the presence of localized structural damage/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. Remarkably, our silica surfaces with doubly reentrant cavities could exhibited apparent contact angles, θr ≈ 135° for mineral oil, where the intrinsic contact angle, θo ≈ 20°. Further, when immersed in mineral oil or water, doubly reentrant microtextures in silica (θo ≈ 40° for water) were not penetrated even after several days of investigation. Thus, microtextures comprising of doubly reentrant cavities might enable applications of conventional materials without chemical modifications, especially in scenarios that are prone to localized damages or immersion in wetting liquids, e.g. hydrodynamic drag reduction and membrane distillation.

  20. Should We Stay or Should We Go Now? The Physical, Economic, Geopolitical, Social and Psychological Factors of Recovery from Catastrophic Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    to relocate after a catastrophic disaster.31 This thesis reviews the demographics and poverty of Seaside to determine impacts in recovery. Oddly...with 44,000 people left homeless as a result of the event. Approximately 100,000 buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. Survivors were forced...control over their plight.128 Homeless survivors temporarily housed in camps were made to feel as if their plight is overstated as Prime Minister

  1. Study on the safety during transport of radioactive materials. Pt. 4. Events during transport. Final report work package 6; Untersuchungen zur Sicherheit bei der Befoerderung radioaktiver Stoffe. T. 4. Ereignisse bei der Befoerderung. Abschlussbericht zum Arbeitspaket 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sentuc, Florence-Nathalie

    2014-09-15

    This report presents the results from a data collection and an evaluation of the safety significance of events in the transportation of radioactive material by all modes on public routes in Germany. Systems for reporting and evaluation of the safety significance of events encountered in the transport of radioactive material are a central element in monitoring and judging the adequacy and effectiveness of the transport regulations and their underlying safety philosophy, this allows for revision by experience feedback (lessons learned). The nationwide survey performed covering the period from the mid 1990s through 2013 identified and analysed a total of 670 transport events varying in type and severity. The vast majority of recorded transport events relate to minor deviations from the provisions of the transport regulations (e.g. improper markings and error in transport documents) or inappropriate practices and operational procedures resulting in material damage of packages and equipment such as handling incidents. Severe traffic accidents and fires represented only a small fraction (ca. 3 percent) of the recorded transport events. Four transport events were identified in the reporting period to have given rise to environmental radioactive releases. Three transport events have reportedly resulted in minor radiation exposures to the transport personnel; in one case an exposure in excess of the statutory annual dose limit for the public seems possible. Based on the EVTRAM scale, with seven significance levels, the broad majority of transport events has been classified as ''non-incidents'' (Level 0) and ''events without affecting the safety functions of the package'' (Level 1). On the INES scale most transport events would be classified as events with ''no safety significance'' (Below Scale/Level 0). The survey results show no serious deficiencies in the transport of radioactive material, supporting the

  2. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  3. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  4. [Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilas, Ljiljana Todorović; Bajkin, Ivana; Icin, Tijana; Paro, Jovanka Novaković; Zavisić, Branka Kovacev

    2012-01-01

    Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger a utoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction. is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consuquences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima). The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  5. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  6. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  7. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  8. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems.

  9. Effect of catastrophic wildfires on asthmatic outcomes in obese children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Kevin; Chen, Lie; Tse, Mabel; Zuraw, Bruce; Christiansen, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Background Air pollutants from wildfires and obesity independently exacerbate asthma, yet no study has determined the combined effects of these 2 variables on asthma outcomes. Objective To determine the effect of 2 catastrophic wildfires affecting the Southern California region (in 2003 and 2007) on several asthma outcomes in a cohort of children. Methods To investigate the association between wildfire exposure and asthma outcomes, we stratified our study population by body mass index categories (underweight, normal, overweight, and obese) and zip codes (to distinguish individuals who were closer to the fires vs farther away). The primary outcome was the prevalence of physician-dispensed short-acting β-agonist (SABAs). Secondary outcomes included the rate of emergency department visits and/or hospitalizations for asthma, the frequency of oral corticosteroid use for asthma, and number of new diagnoses of asthma. Results A total of 2,195 and 3,965 asthmatic children were analyzed as part of our retrospective cohort during the 2003 and 2007 wildfires, respectively. SABA dispensing increased the most in the obese group after the 2003 wildfires (P wildfire. Conclusion Catastrophic wildfires lead to worsening asthma outcomes, particularly in obese individuals. This study gives further evidence of a link between obesity and asthma severity and suggests that air pollutants released during wildfires can have substantial detrimental effects on asthma control. PMID:25747784

  10. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  11. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households

    OpenAIRE

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Background Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. Methods This study used data from the Q...

  12. State Versus Trait: Validating State Assessment of Child and Parental Catastrophic Thinking About Children's Acute Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Hannah; Birnie, Kathryn A; Noel, Melanie; Vervoort, Tine; Goubert, Liesbet; Boerner, Katelynn E; Chambers, Christine T; Caes, Line

    2017-04-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as one of the most robust predictors of child pain outcomes. Although assessments of state (ie, situation-specific) pain catastrophizing in children and parents are often used, their psychometric properties are unknown. This study aimed to assess factor structure, reliability, and predictive validity of state versions of Pain Catastrophizing Scales for children and parents relative to corresponding trait versions for child and parental pain-related outcomes. Data were pooled from 8 experimental pain studies in which child and/or parent state catastrophizing (measured immediately before application of a pain stimulus) and trait catastrophizing were assessed in community-based samples of children aged 8 to 18 years (N = 689) and their parents (N = 888) in Dutch or English. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to examine the underlying factor structure of the state versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for parents/children, revealing a single factor solution that explained 55.53% of the variance for children and 49.72% for parents. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to examine relative influence of state versus trait catastrophizing on child and parent pain-related outcomes. Child and parent state catastrophizing were significantly associated with child pain intensity, child state anxiety and parental distress. State catastrophizing scores showed stronger associations than trait scores for most outcomes. This article presents the psychometric properties of state pain catastrophizing measures for children and parents. Findings underscore the importance of assessing state pain catastrophizing about acute pain experiences in parents and children, and provide a basis for robust and valid measurement of state pain catastrophizing about child pain. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Population and individual elephant response to a catastrophic fire in Pilanesberg National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh-Ann Woolley

    Full Text Available In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability, did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern

  14. Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

    2008-01-01

    In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator

  15. Factors associated with increased risk for pain catastrophizing in patients with chronic neck pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang Jun; Lee, Rippy; Yoon, Duck Mi; Yoon, Kyung Bong; Kim, Kiwook; Kim, Shin Hyung

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Pain catastrophizing is becoming increasingly recognized as a clinically important psychological factor in chronic musculoskeletal pain. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we have identified factors associated with an increased risk for pain catastrophizing in chronic neck pain (CNP) patients. We obtained data from our medical database on 331 patients who were treated for neck pain as their chief complaint at our clinic. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to define a high pain catastrophizing state (PCS score ≥21) in this study. Patient demographics, pain-related factors, and psychological factors were evaluated with logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of high pain catastrophizing among patients with CNP. A total of 256 patients with CNP satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were included in the analyses. The median PCS score was 16 (range, 0–45), and 86 of 256 patients (33.5%) reported a PCS score ≥21. In multivariate analysis, high pain intensity, clinical insomnia, and a high level of depression/anxiety were strongly associated with high pain catastrophizing in patients with CNP. Depression was the strongest predictor of high pain catastrophizing, with an odds ratio of 7.35 (95% confidence interval 2.23–24.22). High pain catastrophizing was not significantly related to age, gender, comorbidities, or neck pain-related physical symptoms. In conclusion, poor psychological states should be addressed as an important part of pain management in CNP patients who are susceptible to high pain catastrophizing. PMID:27631217

  16. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W; Quartana, Phillip J; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y

    2008-04-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only patients described by certain combinations of pain catastrophizing and physiological indexes would report pronounced chronic pain. Chronic low back pain patients (N = 97) participated in anger recall and sadness recall interviews while lower paraspinal and trapezius EMG and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR) were recorded. Mediation models were not supported. However, pain catastrophizing significantly interacted with resting lower paraspinal muscle tension to predict pain severity such that high catastrophizers with high resting lower paraspinal tension reported the greatest pain. Pain catastrophizing also interacted with SBP, DBP and HR reactivity to affect pain such that high catastrophizers who showed low cardiovascular reactivity to the interviews reported the greatest pain. Results support a multi-variable profile approach to identifying pain catastrophizers at greatest risk for pain severity by virtue of resting muscle tension and cardiovascular stress function.

  17. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Suso-Ribera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation. If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  18. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  19. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  20. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  1. Outliers, extreme events, and multiscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'vov, Victor S.; Pomyalov, Anna; Procaccia, Itamar

    2001-05-01

    Extreme events have an important role which is sometimes catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena, including climate, earthquakes, and turbulence, as well as in manmade environments such as financial markets. Statistical analysis and predictions in such systems are complicated by the fact that on the one hand extreme events may appear as ``outliers'' whose statistical properties do not seem to conform with the bulk of the data, and on the other hand they dominate the tails of the probability distributions and the scaling of high moments, leading to ``abnormal'' or ``multiscaling.'' We employ a shell model of turbulence to show that it is very useful to examine in detail the dynamics of onset and demise of extreme events. Doing so may reveal dynamical scaling properties of the extreme events that are characteristic to them, and not shared by the bulk of the fluctuations. As the extreme events dominate the tails of the distribution functions, knowledge of their dynamical scaling properties can be turned into a prediction of the functional form of the tails. We show that from the analysis of relatively short-time horizons (in which the extreme events appear as outliers) we can predict the tails of the probability distribution functions, in agreement with data collected in very much longer time horizons. The conclusion is that events that may appear unpredictable on relatively short time horizons are actually a consistent part of a multiscaling statistics on longer time horizons.

  2. Analysis of damaging hydrogeological events in a Mediterranean region (Calabria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aceto, Luigi; Caloiero, Tommaso; Pasqua, A. A.; Petrucci, Olga

    2016-10-01

    Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are periods of severe weather conditions affecting wide areas for several days, and causing mainly damaging landslides and floods. In order to characterise the DHEs, we analysed the historical series of the events that affected a Mediterranean region (Calabria, southern Italy) throughout 92 years of observation. Depending on their magnitude, we classified the events as: major catastrophic, catastrophic, extraordinary and ordinary. In winter events, damaged areas and damage were greater than those resulting from the other seasons. Nevertheless, the majority of the events took place in autumn, when, in addition to landslides, a relevant percentage of flash floods and floods also occurred. Results also show that the frequency of major catastrophic and catastrophic events has decreased since 1971, and that, in recent decades, Calabria has suffered from damaging effects even though rain did not reached extreme characteristics. In fact, the duration of triggering rain, the maximum daily rain of the events and the out coming frequency of the high return period of rain show a decreasing pattern throughout the study period. As to what concerns the damaging phenomena, landslides were identified as the most frequent in every season and in every type of events, the eastern side of the region was the most frequently and heavily damaged. According to literature, the trend of number of victims per event is also decreasing. The proposed analysis can be applied to different study areas in order to assess the relative magnitude of DHEs and their evolution throughout the years. The classification criterion can be useful to compare different events for either scientific or insurance purposes, and to identify the typical rainfall-damage scenario of a study area.

  3. Effect of Service Environment on Composite Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-08-01

    climatiques tras variables :domaine do temperature s ’ tendant doe.4 70 er hygrom6trique allant jusqu’a 100 %, conditions givrantes pouvant entratnor des...foreign materials) can lead to corona, and initiate arcing severe enough to disrupt and to damage equipment catastrophically . The electronic...the blades went back to service again. PROBLEMS DUE TO LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF GRC FAILURE MECHANICS A deterioration, that would catastrophically fail

  4. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  5. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  6. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  7. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  8. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  9. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  10. Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, G F; Lindop, N A; Edmunds, W J; Nokes, D J

    2001-05-01

    Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time, 'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

  11. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  12. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  13. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit union...

  14. The Relation Between Catastrophizing and Occupational Disability in Individuals with Major Depression: Concurrent and Prospective Associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Heather; Thibault, Pascal; Ellis, Tamra; Moore, Emily; Sullivan, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Background Catastrophic thinking has been associated with occupational disability in individuals with debilitating pain conditions. The relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability has not been previously examined in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions. The present study examined the relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability in individuals with major depression. Methods The study sample consisted of 80 work-disabled individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) who were referred to an occupational rehabilitation service. Participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity, catastrophic thinking and occupational disability at admission and termination of a rehabilitation intervention. Return-to-work outcomes were assessed 1 month following the termination of the rehabilitation intervention. Results Cross-sectional analyses of admission data revealed that catastrophic thinking contributed significant variance to the prediction of self-reported occupational disability, beyond the variance accounted for by depressive symptom severity. Prospective analyses revealed that reductions in catastrophic thinking predicted successful return to work following the rehabilitation intervention, beyond the variance accounted for by reductions in depressive symptom severity. Conclusions The findings suggest that catastrophic thinking is a determinant of occupational disability in individuals with major depressive disorder. The findings further suggest that interventions designed to reduce catastrophic thinking might promote occupational re-integration in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions.

  15. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  16. Parent pain catastrophizing predicts child depressive symptoms in youth with sickle cell disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein-Leever, Alana; Cohen, Lindsey L; Dampier, Carlton; Sil, Soumitri

    2018-03-07

    Youth with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk for recurrent pain and depressive symptoms, both of which contribute to poorer health outcomes. Furthermore, youth and family coping with child pain, including pain catastrophizing, is known to be associated with poorer psychosocial adjustment and greater functional disability among youth with SCD. In particular, child catastrophizing about pain and parent catastrophizing about their child's pain have been linked to increased pain and depressive symptoms in youth with chronic pain conditions. Despite this, the impact of child and parent pain catastrophizing on depressive symptoms remains unexplored in pediatric SCD. The current study evaluated the predictive value of child and parent pain catastrophizing on child depressive symptoms in a sample of 100 youth with SCD. Differences in child and parent pain catastrophizing across youth with and without clinically elevated depressive symptoms were also examined. Pain frequency and parent and child pain catastrophizing accounted for 35.9% of variance in child depressive symptoms, with only pain frequency and parent pain catastrophizing emerging as unique predictors of clinically elevated depressive symptoms. Additionally, parents of youth with clinically elevated depressive symptoms showed increased helplessness relative to parents of youth with minimal to mild depressive symptoms. Findings support the value of depression screening and interventions to promote parent self-efficacy in managing childhood SCD pain. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  18. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  19. Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour en 2006). Couverture du livre Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour. Directeur(s):. David Glover et Timothy Jessup. Maison(s) d'édition: ISEAS, CRDI. 1 janvier 1999. ISBN : 9812300066. 160 pages. e-ISBN : 1552503321.

  20. Influence of Photospheric Magnetic Conditions on the Catastrophic Behaviors of Flux Ropes in Solar Active Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui; Liu, Jiajia, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Since only the magnetic conditions at the photosphere can be routinely observed in current observations, it is of great significance to determine the influences of photospheric magnetic conditions on solar eruptive activities. Previous studies about catastrophe indicated that the magnetic system consisting of a flux rope in a partially open bipolar field is subject to catastrophe, but not if the bipolar field is completely closed under the same specified photospheric conditions. In order to investigate the influence of the photospheric magnetic conditions on the catastrophic behavior of this system, we expand upon the 2.5-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic model in Cartesian coordinates to simulate the evolution of the equilibrium states of the system under different photospheric flux distributions. Our simulation results reveal that a catastrophe occurs only when the photospheric flux is not concentrated too much toward the polarity inversion line and the source regions of the bipolar field are not too weak; otherwise no catastrophe occurs. As a result, under certain photospheric conditions, a catastrophe could take place in a completely closed configuration, whereas it ceases to exist in a partially open configuration. This indicates that whether the background field is completely closed or partially open is not the only necessary condition for the existence of catastrophe, and that the photospheric conditions also play a crucial role in the catastrophic behavior of the flux rope system.

  1. Fracturing across the multi-scales of diverse materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, R. W.; Antolovich, S. D.; Griffiths, J. R.; Knott, J. F.

    2015-01-01

    Everyone has to deal with fracturing of materials at one level or another, beginning from normal household chores and extending to the largest scale of observations reported for catastrophic events occurring on a geological level or even expanded to events in outer space. Such wide perspective is introduced in the current introduction of this theme issue. The follow-on organization of technical articles provides a flavour of the range in size scales at which fracturing occurs in a wide diversity of materials—from ‘fracking’ oil extraction and earth moving to laboratory testing of rock material and extending to the cracking of tooth enamel. Of important scientific interest are observations made and analysed at the smallest dimensions corresponding to the mechanisms by which fracture is either enhanced or hindered by permanent deformation or other processes. Such events are irrevocably linked to the atomic structure in all engineering materials, a sampling of which is presented, including results for crystalline and amorphous materials. Hooray for the broad subject description that is hoped to be appealing to the interested reader. PMID:25713460

  2. Microtubule dynamic instability: A new model with coupled GTP hydrolysis and multistep catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowne-Anderson, Hugo; Zanic, Marija; Kauer, Monika; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-01-01

    A key question in understanding microtubule dynamics is how GTP hydrolysis leads to catastrophe, the switch from slow growth to rapid shrinkage. We first provide a review of the experimental and modeling literature, and then present a new model of microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that vectorial, random, and coupled hydrolysis mechanisms are not consistent with the dependence of catastrophe on tubulin concentration and show that, although single-protofilament models can explain many features of dynamics, they do not describe catastrophe as a multistep process. Finally, we present a new combined (coupled plus random hydrolysis) multiple-protofilament model that is a simple, analytically solvable generalization of a single-protofilament model. This model accounts for the observed lifetimes of growing microtubules, the delay to catastrophe following dilution and describes catastrophe as a multistep process. PMID:23532586

  3. Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rue, Garrett P. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Rock, Nathan D. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Gabor, Rachel S. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Pitlick, John [Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Tfaily, Malak [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; McKnight, Diane M. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA

    2017-07-01

    During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

  4. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fadden, M.; Yardumian, J.

    1993-07-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List provides brief summaries of hundreds of safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Events are described under the categories: Bomb-related, Intrusion, Missing/Allegedly Stolen, Transportation-related, Tampering/Vandalism, Arson, Firearms-related, Radiological Sabotage, Non-radiological Sabotage, and Miscellaneous. Because of the public interest, the Miscellaneous category also includes events reported involving source material, byproduct material, and natural uranium, which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Information in the event descriptions was obtained from official NRC sources

  5. Event Investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korosec, D.

    2000-01-01

    The events in the nuclear industry are investigated from the license point of view and from the regulatory side too. It is well known the importance of the event investigation. One of the main goals of such investigation is to prevent the circumstances leading to the event and the consequences of the event. The protection of the nuclear workers against nuclear hazard, and the protection of general public against dangerous effects of an event could be achieved by systematic approach to the event investigation. Both, the nuclear safety regulatory body and the licensee shall ensure that operational significant events are investigated in a systematic and technically sound manner to gather information pertaining to the probable causes of the event. One of the results should be appropriate feedback regarding the lessons of the experience to the regulatory body, nuclear industry and general public. In the present paper a general description of systematic approach to the event investigation is presented. The systematic approach to the event investigation works best where cooperation is present among the different divisions of the nuclear facility or regulatory body. By involving management and supervisors the safety office can usually improve their efforts in the whole process. The end result shall be a program which serves to prevent events and reduce the time and efforts solving the root cause which initiated each event. Selection of the proper method for the investigation and an adequate review of the findings and conclusions lead to the higher level of the overall nuclear safety. (author)

  6. High-Resolution Structural Monitoring of Ionospheric Absorption Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    the Van Allen radiation belts , because artificial enhancements of the radiation belts could have catastrophic impacts on space systems, as well as on...precipitation of beta particles from the radiation belts to lower altitudes; these precipitation events are driven by the dynamics of wave -particle...Array (LWA) to provide a significant riometric capability, in order to search for anomalous absorption events that are associated with radiation belt

  7. The catastrophic landfill flowslide at Hongao dumpsite on 20 December 2015 in Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qiang; Peng, Dalei; Li, Weile; Dong, Xiujun; Hu, Wei; Tang, Minggao; Liu, Fangzhou

    2017-02-01

    A catastrophic flowslide occurred at the Hongao dumpsite on 20 December 2015 in the Guangming New District of Shenzhen, China. The flowslide caused 77 causalities and damaged 33 buildings. In the absence of extreme weather conditions and seismic activity, the causes of the failure were analyzed on the basis of multi-temporal remote-sensing images, site investigation, in situ tests, laboratory tests, and numerical analyses. Site investigations showed that the volume of the displaced material was 2.32 × 106 m3 and the volume of the pre-failure waste filling was 6.27 × 106 m3. The flowslide was characterized by high travel velocity and long runout distance. The displaced material was primarily a mixture of silty soil and construction and demolition waste with water content of 17.3-42.4 %. The primary causes of the failure were concluded to be the following: (1) groundwater flow had stagnated in the dumpsite due to drainage system failure and the underlying impermeable granite stratum; (2) the accumulation rate and total volume of the waste filling was in exceedance of the design capacity. The flowslide may be ascribed to the development of excess pore-water pressure as evidence of liquefaction was observed at several locations, and it is postulated that such phenomena were related to the surcharge loads imposed by the unregulated disposal activities.

  8. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

    2015-11-01

    Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  9. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Marotta

    Full Text Available Abstract Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  10. [Seronegative antiphospholipid syndrome, catastrophic syndrome, new anticoagulants: learning from a difficult case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joalland, F; de Boysson, H; Darnige, L; Johnson, A; Jeanjean, C; Cheze, S; Augustin, A; Auzary, C; Geffray, L

    2014-11-01

    The diagnosis of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is based on clinical and biological criteria including the persistent presence of antiphospholipid antibodies and thrombotic events or pregnancy morbidity. Heparins relayed by vitamin K antagonists (VKA) are the gold standard treatment for thrombosis. We report a 17-year-old man who presented with an initially seronegative antiphospholipid syndrome, in whom the diagnosis was late, only obtained after anticoagulation withdrawing, when a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with cutaneous lesions and disseminated intravascular coagulation syndrome occurred. For personal convenience, this patient was initially treated with fondaparinux followed by a new oral anticoagulant (rivaroxaban) before to return to the conventional VKA treatment. The "seronegative" APS is a controversial concept reflecting the heterogeneity of antigenic targets for aPL. This diagnosis may be considered after a rigorous work-up, with the help of haemostasis laboratories testing new emerging aPL assays. In APS, the new anticoagulants represent an attractive option needing nevertheless prospective studies to evaluate their safety and efficacy. Lupus anticoagulant detection in patients treated by new oral anticoagulants is not easy by usually recommended coagulation tests. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  11. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebari, Karim

    2014-01-01

    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

  12. Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Yang, Yan; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Zhanqing

    2015-07-20

    Extreme events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, have become more frequent since the 1950s1-2. This is likely caused through changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols that perturb the radiative balance and alter cloud processes3-8. On 8-9 July, 2013 a catastrophic flood devastated several metropolitan areas at the foothills of the Sichuan Basin. Using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-chemistry model, we show that this disaster was not entirely natural. Ensemble simulations robustly show that the severe anthropogenic pollution in the Sichuan Basin significantly enhanced rainfall intensity over the mountainous area northwest of the basin. The heavy air pollution (mainly black carbon) absorbs solar radiation in the lower atmosphere at the expense of surface cooling, which stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection and precipitation over the basin. The enhanced moisture and moist static energy over the basin are then transported by the prevailing winds towards the mountains during daytime. As the excessive moist air that reaches the foothills at night is orographically lifted, very strong convection develops and produces extremely heavy precipitation. Reducing black carbon (BC) emissions in the basin can effectively mitigate the extreme precipitation in the mountains. Unfortunately, BC emissions have been increasing in many developing countries including China9, making them more vulnerable to enhanced disasters as reported here.

  13. Catastrophizing, rumination, and reappraisal prospectively predict adolescent PTSD symptom onset following a terrorist attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Jessica L; Jager-Hyman, Shari; Heleniak, Charlotte; Beck, Aaron T; Sheridan, Margaret A; McLaughlin, Katie A

    2016-08-24

    Disruptions in emotion regulation are a transdiagnostic risk factor for psychopathology. However, scant research has examined whether emotion regulation strategies are related to the onset of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms among youths exposed to trauma. We investigated whether pretrauma emotion regulation strategies prospectively predicted PTSD symptom onset after the 2013 Boston Marathon terrorist attack among adolescents and whether these associations were moderated by the degree of exposure to media coverage of the attack. A sample of 78 Boston-area adolescents (mean age = 16.72 years, 65% female) who previously participated in studies assessing emotion regulation and psychopathology were recruited following the terrorist attack. Within 4 weeks of the attack, we assessed self-reported PTSD symptoms and attack-related media exposure via an online survey. We examined the association of pretrauma emotion regulation strategies with PTSD symptom onset after adjustment for pretrauma internalizing symptoms and violence exposure. Greater pretrauma engagement in rumination predicted onset of PTSD symptoms following the attack. Adolescents who engaged in catastrophizing also had greater PTSD symptoms postattack, but only when exposed to high levels of media coverage of the attacks; the same pattern was observed for adolescents who engaged in low levels of cognitive reappraisal. Engagement in specific emotion regulation strategies prior to a traumatic event predicts the onset of PTSD symptoms among youths exposed to trauma, extending transdiagnostic models of emotion regulation to encompass trauma-related psychopathology in children and adolescents. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazansev, S.I.; Koblik, Yu.N.; Yuldashev, B.S.; Kuzhevskij, B.M.; Nechaev, O.Yu.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event

  15. Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazantsev, S.I.; Koblik, Yu.N.; Yuldashev, B.S.; Kuzhevskij, B.M.; Nechaev, O.Yu.

    2004-01-01

    Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event. (author)

  16. Catastrophizing, rumination, and reappraisal prospectively predict adolescent PTSD symptom onset following a terrorist attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Jessica L.; Jager-Hyman, Shari; Heleniak, Charlotte; Beck, Aaron T.; Sheridan, Margaret A.; McLaughlin, Katie A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Disruptions in emotion regulation are a transdiagnostic risk factor for psychopathology. However, scant research has examined whether emotion regulation strategies are related to the onset of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms among youths exposed to trauma. We investigated whether pretrauma emotion regulation strategies prospectively predicted PTSD symptom onset after the 2013 Boston Marathon terrorist attack among adolescents and whether these associations were moderated by the degree of exposure to media coverage of the attack. Methods A sample of 78 Boston-area adolescents (mean age =16.72 years, 65% female) who previously participated in studies assessing emotion regulation and psychopathology were recruited following the terrorist attack. Within 4 weeks of the attack, we assessed self-reported PTSD symptoms and attack-related media exposure via an online survey. We examined the association of pretrauma emotion regulation strategies with PTSD symptom onset after adjustment for pretrauma internalizing symptoms and violence exposure. Results Greater pretrauma engagement in rumination predicted onset of PTSD symptoms following the attack. Adolescents who engaged in catastrophizing also had greater PTSD symptoms postattack, but only when exposed to high levels of media coverage of the attacks; the same pattern was observed for adolescents who engaged in low levels of cognitive reappraisal. Conclusions Engagement in specific emotion regulation strategies prior to a traumatic event predicts the onset of PTSD symptoms among youths exposed to trauma, extending transdiagnostic models of emotion regulation to encompass trauma-related psychopathology in children and adolescents. PMID:27557454

  17. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics. We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...... be characterized by their occurrence times and the participating books and borrowers. When we characterize events as information objects we focus on concepts like information structures. When viewed as change agents events are phenomena that trigger change. For example, when borrow event occurs books are moved...

  18. Safety of the Transport of Radioactive Materials for Civilian Use in France. Lessons learned by IRSN from analysis of significant events reported in 2014 and 2015. Mission report 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    IRSN publishes its report on the safety of transport of radioactive materials for civilian use in France for the years 2014 and 2015. It is based on an overall review of the significant events that occurred during this period during transport operations in France by road, railway, inland waterway, sea and air of 980 000 parcels loaded with radioactive substances. In 2014 and 2015, respectively 139 and 122 events were reported, which is about one event reported for 7,500 packages carried. While these figures are up significantly compared to 2013 (93 reported events, or 1 in 10,000 packages carried), IRSN believes that this trend should not however be interpreted as a deterioration of the safety level of the transport of radioactive materials. Indeed, it is largely explained by better detection of events relevant to safety by the actors concerned and therefore their declaration to the authorities. None of these events had significant radiological consequences for the workers, the population or the environment. As part of progress made, IRSN notes a sharp decrease, in 2015, in the number of damage of packages intended for medical activities during their handling in airport areas. This decrease is linked to awareness actions conducted for airlines companies and staff involved in the handling of packages. Finally, three themes must be the subject of particular vigilance of the actors concerned and of corrective actions: - Compliance with the requirements for the transport of gamma radiography devices, in particular those associated with the locking of the source; events related to the transport of gamma radiography devices appeared as remarkable events over the period (3 level 1 events and 1 level 2 events); - The tie-down of packages on their means of transport, given the risks of fall of the package during transport, as well as tie-down of the objects in their transport container; - The operations of filling and closing of drums containing uranium ore in order to

  19. Suppression of Powerful Clouds and Prevention of D Estructive Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones, S Evere Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Catastrophic Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasilnikov, E.

    Destructive tropical storms, hurricanes (typhoons), tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and extratropical cyclones and storms resulted in catastrophic floods annually inflict multitudinous death and injury and bring huge material damage in many countries. This problem is highly important and to date has not been solved. At the same time, practically all researches made concerning these phenomena fail to take into account that the origin and intensification of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes take place under conditions of an abnormally strong electric field which together with electromagnetohydrodynamic interaction occupies a key position in the ntensification process. The detailed description of the electromagnetohydrodynamic model explaining the processes of energy conversion in tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes is presented. Herewith, tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds generating tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones resulting in catastrophic floods are the powerful cloud systems containing huge mass of water. According to a hypothesis proposed in the paper an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting of this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in stability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather long-duration time. On the basis of the hypothesis a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease of an electric field, a sudden increase of precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method based on the natural phenomenon ensures prevention of intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It ensures as well suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates development of dangerous

  20. Materials damaging and rupture - Volumes 1-2. General remarks, metallic materials. Non-metallic materials and biomaterials, assemblies and industrial problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clavel, M.; Bompard, P.

    2009-01-01

    The rupture and damaging of materials and structures is almost always and unwanted events which may have catastrophic consequences. Even if the mechanical failure causes can often be analyzed using a thorough knowledge of materials behaviour, the forecasting and prevention of failures remain difficult. While the macroscopic mechanical behaviour is often the result of average effects at the structure or microstructure scale, the damage is very often the result of the combination of load peaks, of localization effects and of microstructure defects. This book, presented in two volumes, takes stock of the state-of-the-art of the knowledge gained in the understanding and modelling of rupture and damaging phenomena of materials and structure, mostly of metallic type. It gives an outline of the available knowledge for other classes of materials (ceramics, biomaterials, geo-materials..) and for different types of applications (aeronautics, nuclear industry). Finally, it examines the delicate problem, but very important in practice, of the behaviour of assemblies. Content: Vol.1 - physical mechanisms of materials damaging and rupture; rupture mechanics; cyclic plasticity and fatigue crack growth; fatigue crack propagation; environment-induced cracking; contacts and surfaces. Vol.2 - glasses and ceramics; natural environments: soils and rocks; mechanical behaviour of biological solid materials: the human bone; contribution of simulation to the understanding of rupture mechanisms; assemblies damaging and rupture; industrial cases (behaviour of PWR pressure vessel steels, and thermal and mechanical stresses in turbojet engines). (J.S.)

  1. Cataclysms and Catastrophes: A Case Study of Improving K-12 Science Education Through a University Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennell, T.; Ellins, K. K.; Morris, M.; Christeson, G.

    2003-12-01

    culmination to the classroom debate, we developed a curriculum module on Asteroids Impacts for the Cataclysms and Catastrophes project. This approach proved to be the ideal way to update the existing Planet Earth curriculum and to provide students with opportunities to use cutting-edge, hands-on geophysical and computer techniques to understand the most up-to-date science concerning the K-T extinction event.

  2. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  3. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  4. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  7. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  8. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  9. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-03-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  10. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  11. Catastrophic Transculturation in Dracula, The Strain and The Historian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Hoglund

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article notes that what Paul Brantlinger has referred to as the Imperial Gothic insists that the encounter between cultures results not in a transcultural merger, but in an apocalyptic struggle for survival. As this struggle is often tied to past and present-day imperial sentiment, the article suggests that both late-Victorian and contemporary fiction can effectively be discussed with the help of Marie Louise Pratt's concept transculturation. Through a reading of three vampire narratives, Stokers's Dracula (1897, Del Toro and Hogan's The Strain (2009 and Kostova's The Historian (2005, the article demonstrates how past and present imperial gothic texts describe the derailment of European modernity and insists that cultural encounter produce monstrous hybrids that threaten an ontological and/or epistemological apocalypse. In this way, the cultural encounter that these gothic novels imagine result in catastrophic transculturation and the article argues that this is a common way of understanding the transnational meeting in American neo-imperial discourse.

  12. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  13. Events diary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    From 18 January until 28 March the 2000 IEE Faraday Lecture will be touring venues in the UK, aiming to inspire and encourage students to choose a career in science and engineering. The lecture tour is being supported by communications and IT company, Marconi, and it is being presented by University College London. Interactive experiments for the audience of 14 - 16 year-olds will combine with a multimedia presentation on the theme `Time and Place in the Communications Age', exploring our ability to make precise measurements of time, place and space and how these impact on our personal and business lives. Among the curious facts from the lecture is the discovery that Cornwall rises and falls by 20 cm every time the tide moves in and out. The whole of the UK rises and falls by 50 cm every time the Moon goes by and the UK is actually 20 m shorter than was thought ten years ago, before the Global Positioning Satellite system was in operation. Attendance at the lectures is free and schools interested in booking tickets should visit the Faraday website at www.faraday.org.uk . Further details of the tour are available from the Faraday Lecture Office, Institution of Electrical Engineers, Michael Faraday House, Six Hills Way, Stevenage, Herts SG1 2AY (tel: 01438 313311, fax: 01438 742856, e-mail: faraday@iee.org.uk ). Among the `Strands' on the programme at the 2000 Edinburgh international science festival on 2 - 18 April are: visions of the future; time; the natural world; new materials; science book festival; science film festival. Festival programmes should be available soon from the festival office at 8 Lochend Road, Edinburgh EH6 8BR (tel: 0131 530 2001, fax: 0131 530 2002, e-mail: esf@scifest.demon.co.uk ). BA2000 will be one of the key features of the `creating SPARKS' festival where the sciences meet the arts in London during 6 - 30 September. Centred on South Kensington, and led by the British Association, creating SPARKS will be staged at such famous institutions

  14. A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Gottwald

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

  15. The interplay of parent and adolescent catastrophizing and its impact on adolescents' pain, functioning, and pain behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R

    2013-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N=240). Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (>70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems.

  16. The Interplay of Parent and Adolescent Catastrophizing and Its Impact on Adolescents’ Pain, Functioning, and Pain Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M.; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Methods Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N = 240). Results Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (> 70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Discussion Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems. PMID:23370064

  17. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

  18. Symmetric frenzy and catastrophic change: a consideration of primitive mental states in the wake of Bion and Matte Blanco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Riccardo

    2009-06-01

    The author explores the connections between Matte Blanco's notion of symmetric frenzy, i.e. the turbulence characteristic of the deepest levels of mental functioning, and Bion's concept of catastrophic change. For Bion, mental links are retrieved from the formless darkness of infinity. With catastrophic change, emotional violence and the confining nature of representation come into conflict, leaving the subject prey to an explosiveness that paralyses mental resources. Matte Blanco identifies indivisibility as the abyss in which all differentiation ceases; he bases his model on the conflict between symmetry and asymmetry. Infinity, he maintains, is where the first forms of mentalization develop. Both Bion and Matte Blanco emphasize the contrast between the immensity of mental space and the spatio-temporal order introduced by the activation of thinking functions. The author presents clinical material from the analysis of a psychotic patient, stressing the need to encourage both working through the defect of thinking (Bion) and 'unfolding' manifestations of symmetry (Matte Blanco) so as to foster the activation of the resources of thought, meanwhile postponing transference interpretation. He concludes with two later sessions, in which recognition of the analyst in the transference allows the analysand to develop his capacity for containment and asymmetric differentiation.

  19. The role of the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health on the coverage of patients with cataract.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Navarrete-López

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the effect of the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health on the provision of services for patients with cataract. Materials and methods. We used administrative dataset on hospital discharges and official figures on population to estimate the rate of care and the coverage for cataract. To estimate the variation on resources, we used data from the National System of Health Information. Results. Coverage for this disease had a significant increase between 2000 and 2010, passing from 24 per thousand cataract patients receiving attention to 58.8 per thousand. This growth is mainly due to the incorporation of cataract to the catalog of diseases covered by the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health, although this variation is not based on additional resources but in a higher productivity. The growth of services is noticeable in Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Distrito Federal and Nayarit. Conclusions. Our results suggest that policy-making based on evidence have actually brought benefits for Mexican population.

  20. Microthrombotic renal involvement in an SLE patient with concomitant catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: the beneficial effect of rituximab treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diószegi, Á; Tarr, T; Nagy-Vincze, M; Nánásy-Vass, M; Veisz, R; Bidiga, L; Dezső, B; Balla, J; Szodoray, P; Szekanecz, Z; Soltész, P

    2018-01-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by multiple arterial and/or venous thrombotic events, recurrent fetal losses in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is a life-threatening, rare subset of antiphospholipid syndrome when the thrombotic events affect at least three organs, and clinical manifestations develop simultaneously or within a week. Diagnostically, small vessel occlusions can be detected by histopathology in the presence of aPL. Our case report describes an 18-year-old man who has been treated for antiphospholipid syndrome associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) since 2011. The clinical findings were dominated by recurrent deep vein thrombosis, and severe proteinuria caused by lupus nephritis, accompanied by mild serological and laboratory findings. The patient was hospitalized in March 2014 because of severe thrombocytopenia and infective diarrhoea. At this time the renal functions deteriorated rapidly. Simultaneously, left upper extremity paresis was observed; computed tomography showed ischaemic lesions in the territory of the middle cerebral artery. Abdominal discomfort and pain occurred. On computed tomography scan ischaemic lesions were seen in the spleen, the right kidney and the coeliac trunk. Laboratory and serological findings verified the presence of aPL and anti-DNA antibodies, anaemia and thrombocytopenia. Based on the above-mentioned clinical and laboratory findings, the diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was established. Anticoagulation, corticosteroids and plasma exchange treatment, as well as haemodiafiltration were initiated. Although the thrombotic cascade decelerated following these interventions, we could not see an improvement in the renal function. Rituximab treatment was started, leading to a significant improvement in renal function. After 5 weeks of treatment the patient was discharged from hospital.

  1. Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-07-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, also included are events reported involving byproduct material which is exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, alcohol and drugs, and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  2. Catastrophic degradation of the interface of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon at high temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pradeepkumar, Aiswarya; Mishra, Neeraj; Kermany, Atieh Ranjbar; Iacopi, Francesca [Queensland Micro and Nanotechnology Centre and Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Nathan QLD 4111 (Australia); Boeckl, John J. [Materials and Manufacturing Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratories, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433 (United States); Hellerstedt, Jack; Fuhrer, Michael S. [Monash Centre for Atomically Thin Materials, Monash University, Monash, VIC 3800 (Australia)

    2016-07-04

    Epitaxial cubic silicon carbide on silicon is of high potential technological relevance for the integration of a wide range of applications and materials with silicon technologies, such as micro electro mechanical systems, wide-bandgap electronics, and graphene. The hetero-epitaxial system engenders mechanical stresses at least up to a GPa, pressures making it extremely challenging to maintain the integrity of the silicon carbide/silicon interface. In this work, we investigate the stability of said interface and we find that high temperature annealing leads to a loss of integrity. High–resolution transmission electron microscopy analysis shows a morphologically degraded SiC/Si interface, while mechanical stress measurements indicate considerable relaxation of the interfacial stress. From an electrical point of view, the diode behaviour of the initial p-Si/n-SiC junction is catastrophically lost due to considerable inter-diffusion of atoms and charges across the interface upon annealing. Temperature dependent transport measurements confirm a severe electrical shorting of the epitaxial silicon carbide to the underlying substrate, indicating vast predominance of the silicon carriers in lateral transport above 25 K. This finding has crucial consequences on the integration of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon and its potential applications.

  3. Catastrophic degradation of the interface of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon at high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeepkumar, Aiswarya; Mishra, Neeraj; Kermany, Atieh Ranjbar; Boeckl, John J.; Hellerstedt, Jack; Fuhrer, Michael S.; Iacopi, Francesca

    2016-07-01

    Epitaxial cubic silicon carbide on silicon is of high potential technological relevance for the integration of a wide range of applications and materials with silicon technologies, such as micro electro mechanical systems, wide-bandgap electronics, and graphene. The hetero-epitaxial system engenders mechanical stresses at least up to a GPa, pressures making it extremely challenging to maintain the integrity of the silicon carbide/silicon interface. In this work, we investigate the stability of said interface and we find that high temperature annealing leads to a loss of integrity. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy analysis shows a morphologically degraded SiC/Si interface, while mechanical stress measurements indicate considerable relaxation of the interfacial stress. From an electrical point of view, the diode behaviour of the initial p-Si/n-SiC junction is catastrophically lost due to considerable inter-diffusion of atoms and charges across the interface upon annealing. Temperature dependent transport measurements confirm a severe electrical shorting of the epitaxial silicon carbide to the underlying substrate, indicating vast predominance of the silicon carriers in lateral transport above 25 K. This finding has crucial consequences on the integration of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon and its potential applications.

  4. Implementation of a geodatabase of published and non-published data on the catastrophic Vaiont landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghirotti, M.; Genevois, R.; Superchi, L.; Floris, M.; Stead, D.

    2009-04-01

    On the 9th October 1963 a catastrophic landslide suddenly occurred on the southern slope of the Vaiont dam reservoir. A mass of approximately 270 million m3 collapsed into the reservoir generating a wave which overtopped the dam and hit the town of Longarone and other villages: almost 2000 people lost their lives. Numerous questions, legal, economic, societal, and scientific have accompanied its history, before and after October 9th 1963. Several investigations and attempted interpretations of the slope collapse have been carried out during the last 45 years, however a comprehensive explanation of both the triggering and the dynamics of the phenomenon has yet to be provided. Research on the Vaiont landslide, published in the international literature after 1963, can conveniently subdivided into the following: 1) papers based on geological and geomorphological data collected at the Vaiont site; 2) papers focussing on specific aspects including the geotechnical properties of the materials involved, the physical and rheological behavior of the failure mass and the varied methods of stability analysis applied in order to understand the factors involved in landslide initiation and development; 3) papers dealing with the Vaiont landslide in a more comprehensive way. The Vaiont landslide has significantly increased our understanding of the kinematics and dynamics of such catastrophic phenomena. However, much of the data on the Vaiont slide exists in a non-electronic hard copy format. A geodatabase on the Vaiont Slide has been developed, utilising and updating the information collected by Genevois & Ghirotti (2005). An electronic bibliography of all published papers, theses and non-published technical reports, and all available site data forms the core of a newly developed geodatabase on the Vaiont landslide. In addition, data on engineering geological mapping, topography, rock mechanics, groundwater and monitoring have been centralized in a GIS system to allow a re

  5. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  6. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  7. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  8. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: comparative study by social exclusion level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Puentes-Rosas, Esteban

    2005-01-01

    To describe the differences in catastrophic health expenditures in five Mexican states. This study included five states selected by convenience according to their social exclusion level. Household catastrophic health expenditures attributable to the three components of out of pocket health expenditures (ambulatory care, medication, and inpatient care) were calculated. The risk of impoverishment at the national level was greater in the most vulnerable households, namely, in the 20% poorest, rural, and uninsured households. Nevertheless, in states like Aguascalientes, Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Morelos the results were different. Over 70% of catastrophic health expenditures were attributable to medication and outpatient care expenditures in the poorest states. The differences found among states show that the implementation of local health policies to reduce catastrophic health expenditures should be based on evidence generated from analyses at the state level.

  9. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  10. Rare event techniques applied in the Rasmussen study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1977-01-01

    The Rasmussen Study estimated public risks from commercial nuclear power plant accidents, and therefore the statistics of rare events had to be treated. Two types of rare events were specifically handled, those rare events which were probabilistically rare events and those which were statistically rare events. Four techniques were used to estimate probabilities of rare events. These techniques were aggregating data samples, discretizing ''continuous'' events, extrapolating from minor to catastrophic severities, and decomposing events using event trees and fault trees. In aggregating or combining data the goal was to enlarge the data sample so that the rare event was no longer rare, i.e., so that the enlarged data sample contained one or more occurrences of the event of interest. This aggregation gave rise to random variable treatments of failure rates, occurrence frequencies, and other characteristics estimated from data. This random variable treatment can be interpreted as being comparable to an empirical Bayes technique or a Bayesian technique. In the discretizing event technique, events of a detailed nature were grouped together into a grosser event for purposes of analysis as well as for data collection. The treatment of data characteristics as random variables helped to account for the uncertainties arising from this discretizing. In the severity extrapolation technique a severity variable was associated with each event occurrence for the purpose of predicting probabilities of catastrophic occurrences. Tail behaviors of distributions therefore needed to be considered. Finally, event trees and fault trees were used to express accident occurrences and system failures in terms of more basic events for which data existed. Common mode failures and general dependencies therefore needed to be treated. 2 figures

  11. An Empirical Investigation of Catastrophic Forgetting in Gradient-Based Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Goodfellow, Ian J.; Mirza, Mehdi; Xiao, Da; Courville, Aaron; Bengio, Yoshua

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a problem faced by many machine learning models and algorithms. When trained on one task, then trained on a second task, many machine learning models "forget" how to perform the first task. This is widely believed to be a serious problem for neural networks. Here, we investigate the extent to which the catastrophic forgetting problem occurs for modern neural networks, comparing both established and recent gradient-based training algorithms and activation functions. ...

  12. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  13. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  14. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  15. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  16. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  17. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  18. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  19. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed.

  20. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  1. A hybrid simulator model for the control of catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage in the military environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverplats, Katarina; Jonsson, Anders; Lundberg, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic haemorrhage from extremity injuries has for a long time been the single most common cause of preventable death in the military environment. The effective use of extremity tourniquets has increased the survival of combat casualties, and exsanguination from isolated limb injuries is no longer the most common cause of death. Today, the most common cause of potentially preventable death is haemorrhage from the junctional zones, i.e. the most proximal part of the extremities, not amenable to standard tourniquets. Different training techniques to control catastrophic haemorrhage have been used by the Swedish Armed Forces in the pre-deployment training of physicians, nurses and medics for many years. The training techniques include different types of human patient simulators such as moulage patients and manikins. Preferred training conditions for the control of catastrophic haemorrhage include a high degree of realism, in combination with multiple training attempts. This report presents a new hybrid training model for catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage control. It offers a readily reproducible, simple and inexpensive opportunity to train personnel to deal with life threatening catastrophic junctional haemorrhage. In particular, this model offers an opportunity for non-medical military personnel in Sweden to practice control of realistic catastrophic haemorrhage, with multiple training attempts.

  2. Surface water and groundwater water interaction model in catastrophic floods and mudslides in the beds of mountain rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulenev, Nikita

    2014-05-01

    atmospheres. Such pressure may be due to various external factors (including seismic character). In the event of a sharp increase in pressure under the influence of external factors, may occur short and violent eruption, which in mountainous terrain can form a mudflow. If pressure builds up gradually, which is more typical of the plains, the release can develop into increasing recharge the riverbed, which in turn may lead to flooding. Thus, even if a catastrophic flood / mudflow originally formed for other reasons - because of melting glaciers or intensive / heavy rains, the presence on its way sectors fed by groundwater can significantly strengthen it. If we talk about the comparison of these two models with the actual events taking place, the first time that may be associated with catastrophic flooding in Krymsk (July 2012.), And the second - the floods in the Amur River basin (September 2013) in Russia. It is necessary to take into account the spatial extent of these dynamic phenomena. Groundwater resources are essentially spatially distributed. For example, the size of many artesian basins, ranging from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. Thus, the influence on the behavior of groundwater can have events that occur from them at a considerable distance. In particular, are essential earthquake. Consideration of these tasks within the approaches of nonlinear physics can be very

  3. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  4. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-02-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  5. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-03-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  6. Catastrophic flood disturbance and a community's response to plant resilience in the heart of the Texas Hill Country

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Phillips, John N.; Perkins, Thaïs; Manning, Aspen; Julian, Jason P.

    2018-03-01

    The Blanco River, which flows through the limestone Balcones Canyonlands of central Texas (USA), experienced catastrophic flooding in May 2015 that resulted in significant biogeomorphic disturbance to its riparian corridor. High-resolution aerial and satellite imagery from pre- and post-flooding for a 55-km reach of river were used to map and categorize patterns of disturbance by degree of severity ranging from complete floodplain stripping to no disturbance. The most severe disturbance occurred within the floodway near the channel and decreased with lateral distance into the 100- and 500-year floodplains. Disturbance patterns previously identified in the literature including meander scour, parallel chute scour, convex bank erosion, and macroturbulent scour were all present following this event, as well as substantial disturbance proximal to tributary confluences. In the aftermath of this event, TreeFolks, a local nonprofit organization, engaged with the community to actively replant and restore the riparian corridor of the Blanco River on public and private lands. These reforestation efforts supplement the natural passive recovery of the riparian corridor, enabling the system to recover more quickly and be resilient to future flood events.

  7. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  8. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

    2011-01-04

    The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a class is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between

  9. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montero Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. Results By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. Conclusions The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting

  10. Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul

    2011-05-13

    The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late. © 2011 Royal Society

  11. Dynamical Evolution of the Debris Disk after a Satellite Catastrophic Disruption around Saturn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyodo, Ryuki [Earth-Life Science Institute/Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Tokyo (Japan); Charnoz, Sébastien [Institut de Physique du Globe, 75005 Paris (France)

    2017-07-01

    The hypothesis of the recent origin of Saturn’s rings and its midsized moons is actively debated. It was suggested that a proto-Rhea and a proto-Dione might have collided recently, giving birth to the modern system of midsized moons. It has also been suggested that the rapid viscous spreading of the debris may have implanted mass inside Saturn’s Roche limit, giving birth to its modern ring system. However, this scenario has only been investigated in a very simplified way for the moment. This paper investigates it in detail to assess its plausibility by using N -body simulations and analytical arguments. When the debris disk is dominated by its largest remnant, N -body simulations show that the system quickly reaccretes into a single satellite without significant spreading. On the other hand, if the disk is composed of small particles, analytical arguments suggest that the disk experiences dynamical evolutions in three steps. The disk starts significantly excited after the impact and collisional damping dominates over the viscous spreading. After the system flattens, the system can become gravitationally unstable when particles are smaller than ∼100 m. However, the particles grow faster than spreading. Then, the system becomes gravitationally stable again and accretion continues at a slower pace, but spreading is inhibited. Therefore, the debris is expected to reaccrete into several large bodies. In conclusion, our results show that such a scenario may not form today’s ring system. In contrast, our results suggest that today’s midsized moons are likely reaccreted from such a catastrophic event.

  12. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  13. Real-time quantitative imaging of failure events in materials under load at temperatures above 1,600 °C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bale, Hrishikesh A; Haboub, Abdel; MacDowell, Alastair A; Nasiatka, James R; Parkinson, Dilworth Y; Cox, Brian N; Marshall, David B; Ritchie, Robert O

    2013-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites are the emerging material of choice for structures that will see temperatures above ~1,500 °C in hostile environments, as for example in next-generation gas turbines and hypersonic-flight applications. The safe operation of applications depends on how small cracks forming inside the material are restrained by its microstructure. As with natural tissue such as bone and seashells, the tailored microstructural complexity of ceramic matrix composites imparts them with mechanical toughness, which is essential to avoiding failure. Yet gathering three-dimensional observations of damage evolution in extreme environments has been a challenge. Using synchrotron X-ray computed microtomography, we have fully resolved sequences of microcrack damage as cracks grow under load at temperatures up to 1,750 °C. Our observations are key ingredients for the high-fidelity simulations used to compute failure risks under extreme operating conditions.

  14. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Hewitt

    2012-03-01

    vie quotidienne des peuples montagnards, les catastrophes environnementales sont bien souvent dépendantes d’autres formes sociales de risque, de vulnérabilité et d’une insécurité corollaire. Pour conclure, la marginalisation des espaces montagnards reste avant tout la conséquence du développement socio-économique de ces territoires, dont les paramètres dépendent des stratégies de développement de l’État et des acteurs métropolitains et internationaux.This chapter presents a view of risk and disaster in the mountains that finds them fully a part of public safety issues in modern states and developments, rather than separated from them. This contrasts with prevailing approaches to disaster focused on natural hazards, “unscheduled” or extreme events, and emergency preparedness; approaches strongly reinforced by mountain stereotypes. Rather, we find the legacies of social and economic histories, especially relations to down-country or metropolitan actors, are decisive in shaping contemporary “mountain realities”. Developments in transportation, resource extraction and tourism that serve state and international agendas can increase rather than reduce risks for mountain populations, and undermine pre-existing strategies to minimise environmental dangers. Above all, we see rapid urbanisation in mountains generally and the Himalaya in particular as highly implicated in exacerbating risks and creating new types of vulnerabilities. Enforced displacement, and concentration of, people in urban agglomerations, is a major part of the modern history of mountain lands that invites more careful exploration. Rapid expansion of built environments and infrastructure, without due regard to hazards and structural safety, introduce new and complex risks, while altering older equations with and to the land and sapping people’s resilience. In the lives of mountain people, environmental hazards are mostly subordinate to other, societal sources of risk and

  15. Flood basalts and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1993-01-01

    The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

  16. System of gigantic valleys northwest of Tharsis, Mars: Latent catastrophic flooding, northwest watershed, and implications for northern plains ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohm, J.M.; Anderson, R.C.; Baker, V.R.; Ferris, J.C.; Hare, T.M.; Strom, R.G.; Rudd, L.P.; Rice, J. W.; Casavant, R.R.; Scott, D.H.

    2000-01-01

    Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) reveals a system of gigantic valleys to the northwest of the huge martian shield volcano, Arsia Mons, in the western hemisphere of Mars. These newly identified northwestern slope valleys (NSVs) potentially signify previously undocumented martian catastrophic floods and may corroborate the northern ocean hypotheses. These features, which generally correspond spatially to gravity lows, were previously obscurred in Mariner and Viking Orbiter imagery by veneers of materials, including volcanic lava flows and air fall deposits. Geologic investigations of the Tharsis region suggest that the NSVs were mainly carved prior to the construction of Arsia Mons and its associated Late Hesperian and Amazonian age lava flows, concurrent with the early development of the outflow channels that debouch into Chryse Planitia.

  17. Household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China: determinants and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaohong; Shen, Jay J; Lu, Jun; Wang, Ying; Sun, Mei; Li, Chengyue; Chang, Fengshui; Hao, Mo

    2013-12-05

    Much of research on household catastrophic medical expenses in China has focused on less developed areas and little is known about this problem in more developed areas. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and determinants of catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China. Data were obtained from a health care utilization and expense survey of 11,577 households conducted in eastern China in 2008. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was calculated using the method introduced by the World Health Organization. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China ranged from 9.24% to 24.79%. Incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was lower if the head of household had a higher level of education, labor insurance coverage, while the incidence was higher if they lived in rural areas, had a family member with chronic diseases, had a child younger than 5 years old, had a person at home who was at least 65 years old, and had a household member who was hospitalized. Moreover, the impact of the economic level on catastrophic medical expenses was non-linear. The poorest group had a lower incidence than that of the second lowest income group and the group with the highest income had a higher incidence than that of the second highest income group. In addition, region was a significant determinant. Reducing the incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses should be one of the priorities of health policy. It can be achieved by improving residents' health status to reduce avoidable health services such as hospitalization. It is also important to design more targeted health insurance in order to increase financial support for such vulnerable groups as the poor, chronically ill, children, and senior populations.

  18. The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

  19. Development of advanced high heat flux and plasma-facing materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linsmeier, Ch.; Rieth, M.; Aktaa, J.; Chikada, T.; Hoffmann, A.; Hoffmann, J.; Houben, A.; Kurishita, H.; Jin, X.; Li, M.; Litnovsky, A.; Matsuo, S.; von Müller, A.; Nikolic, V.; Palacios, T.; Pippan, R.; Qu, D.; Reiser, J.; Riesch, J.; Shikama, T.; Stieglitz, R.; Weber, T.; Wurster, S.; You, J.-H.; Zhou, Z.

    2017-09-01

    Plasma-facing materials and components in a fusion reactor are the interface between the plasma and the material part. The operational conditions in this environment are probably the most challenging parameters for any material: high power loads and large particle and neutron fluxes are simultaneously impinging at their surfaces. To realize fusion in a tokamak or stellarator reactor, given the proven geometries and technological solutions, requires an improvement of the thermo-mechanical capabilities of currently available materials. In its first part this article describes the requirements and needs for new, advanced materials for the plasma-facing components. Starting points are capabilities and limitations of tungsten-based alloys and structurally stabilized materials. Furthermore, material requirements from the fusion-specific loading scenarios of a divertor in a water-cooled configuration are described, defining directions for the material development. Finally, safety requirements for a fusion reactor with its specific accident scenarios and their potential environmental impact lead to the definition of inherently passive materials, avoiding release of radioactive material through intrinsic material properties. The second part of this article demonstrates current material development lines answering the fusion-specific requirements for high heat flux materials. New composite materials, in particular fiber-reinforced and laminated structures, as well as mechanically alloyed tungsten materials, allow the extension of the thermo-mechanical operation space towards regions of extreme steady-state and transient loads. Self-passivating tungsten alloys, demonstrating favorable tungsten-like plasma-wall interaction behavior under normal operation conditions, are an intrinsic solution to otherwise catastrophic consequences of loss-of-coolant and air ingress events in a fusion reactor. Permeation barrier layers avoid the escape of tritium into structural and cooling

  20. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  1. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  2. An All-Hazards Training Center for a Catastrophic Emergency

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    they are not constrained by international borders. A pandemic event will most likely originate in an underdeveloped, overpopulated , or failing state...preventive measures. In December 2008 and January 2009, three individuals in China died from the H5N1 virus, raising concerns that this deadly...Radiological isotopes are widely available in the open market. In addition, nuclear arsenals—primarily in the former Soviet Union (Russia), China , and the

  3. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Y.; Zhao, B.; Qian, F.

    1997-01-01

    The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These...

  4. The Reverse Matthew Effect: Catastrophe and Consequence in Scientific Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Ginger Zhe Jin; Benjamin Jones; Susan Feng Lu; Brian Uzzi

    2013-01-01

    Teamwork pervades modern economies, yet teamwork can make individual roles difficult to ascertain. In the sciences, the canonical "Matthew Effect" suggests that eminent team members garner credit for great works at the expense of less eminent team members. We study this phenomenon in reverse, investigating how damaging events, article retractions, affect citations to the authors' prior publications. We find that retractions impose little citation penalty on eminent coauthors, but less eminent...

  5. Applications of heavy ion microprobe for single event effects analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, Robert A.; Vizkelethy, Gyorgy; Pellish, Jonathan A.; Sierawski, Brian; Warren, Kevin M.; Porter, Mark; Wilkinson, Jeff; Marshall, Paul W.; Niu, Guofu; Cressler, John D.; Schrimpf, Ronald D.; Tipton, Alan; Weller, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    The motion of ionizing-radiation-induced rogue charge carriers in a semiconductor can create unwanted voltage and current conditions within a microelectronic circuit. If sufficient unwanted charge or current occurs on a sensitive node, a variety of single event effects (SEEs) can occur with consequences ranging from trivial to catastrophic. This paper describes the application of heavy ion microprobes to assist with calibration and validation of SEE modeling approaches

  6. The "New Climate" New Atmospheric Events and "New Climate Risks": The case of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Since the end of last century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional" causing floods have ceased to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with a recurrence increasingly high, prompting to wonder about the "new" mode of climate's hydrothermal functioning inducing torrential rains, as well as its effect on the environment and societies.The latest event is the disaster of November 2014 flooding in southern Morocco, which is due especially to the non usual rains return.Weather conditions were marked by enhanced Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), characterized by persistent high temperatures during the autumn period in Morocco, mainly south of the Atlas, combined by the intrusion of a cold drop in the beginning of the event on 11.17.2014, and straightforward installation of a planetary valley across the Moroccan coast on 11.24.2014, which has evolved into storm (Xandra) in which depression has reached the surprising value of 975 hPa on 11.28.2014.Human and material damage caused by this flood are impressive: people died, roads, bridges and crops have been destroyed, overwhelmed dams. It has been a catastrophe.This event and others like it (Mohammedia 2002, Tangier 2008, Gharb 2009-2010, Casablanca 2010), must be considered as references for the simulation of future situations, and integration into development plans on future.This communication aims to identify the processes and conditions that have generated these events causing floods, the "exceptional" characteristics of recorded rainfall, the spatial and temporal distribution of events. Those floods affect the whole country, especially low areas, foothills and the mouths of rivers. There are the most vulnerable locations mainly on the autumn which is the most exposed to torrential rainfall season !! ... Etc.

  7. Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

    2015-12-01

    The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

  8. Fragment Properties at the Catastrophic Disruption Threshold: The Effect of the Parent Body's Internal Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutzi, Martin; Michel, P.; Benz, W.; Richardson, D. C.

    2009-09-01

    We present numerical simulations of asteroid break-ups, including both the fragmentation of the parent body and the gravitational interactions between the fragments. The simulations are aimed at studying the so-called catastrophic disruption energy threshold Q*D, which results in the escape of half of the target's mass. Thanks to our recent implementation of a model of fragmentation of porous materials, we can characterize Q*D for both porous and non-porous targets with a wide range of diameters. We analyze the potential influence of porosity on the value of Q*D, and by computing the gravitational phase of the collision in the gravity regime, we characterize the collisional outcome in terms of the fragment size and ejection speed distributions. In the strength regime, which corresponds to target sizes below a few hundreds of meters, we find that porous targets are more difficult to disrupt than non-porous ones. In the gravity regime, one cannot say that non-porous targets are systematically easier or more difficult to disrupt than porous ones, as the outcome also depends on the assumed strengths values. We propose some power-law relationships between Q*D and target's size that can be used in collisional evolution models. The resulting fragment size distributions can be reasonably fitted by a power-law whose exponent ranges between -2.2 and -2.7 for all target diameters in both cases and independently on the impact velocity, at least in the small range investigated between 3 and 5 km/s. This work was supported by the ESA Advanced Concepts Team (Ariadna contract 20782/07 NEO Encounter 2029). M.J. and W.B. acknowledge support from the Swiss National Science Foundation. P.M. acknowledges the support of the French PNP and OPV and from CNRS-JSPS 2008-2009. D.C.R. acknowledges support from the grant NNX08AM39G (NASA).

  9. Mutual emergency assistance in the event of accident during transport of radioactive materials within the member states of the European Community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selling, H.A.

    1984-01-01

    The study consist of a compilation of information on the relevant emergency response plans that are at present in existence in the ten countries of the European Community. Consideration is given to the development of proposals for facilitating co-operation between the emergency services in different countries, particularly with regard to accidents that might occur near national boundaries or in countries in which all the necessary resources might not be available. The particular items of interest covered in this study are: compilation of information on existing organizational emergency response arrangements within each Member State relating to accidents in the transport of radioactive materials by all modes, including road, rail, inland waterways, air and compilation of information on existing arrangements for receiving or providing assistance from or to other Member States. Identification of any avoidable incompatibilities on an international scale. Recommendations for improving the existing arrangements and for encouraging the development of adequate systems of mutual emergency notification, liaison and assistance as required by the circumstances, recommendations should be compatible with the broader framework of emergency response for all types of accidents developed within Member States and envisaged in the IAEA system for mutual emergency assistance

  10. DER 83: outstanding events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The DER's activity is presented through 82 ''outstanding events''. Each one is a stage in the effort of research and development of the DER. These events concern the following fields: new applications of electric power for customers; environment protection and new energy sources; improvements of electric power production units; electrical materials; electric network planning and control; computer codes. In the production field, one deals more particularly with nuclear reactor safety studies: analysis of the behaviour of different components; reactor safety experiments; reliability of different systems (safety, communications...) [fr

  11. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-07-01

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, the Miscellaneous category includes a few events which involve either source material, byproduct material, or natural uranium which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, pre-1990 alcohol and drugs (involving reactor operators, security force members, or management persons), and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  12. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  13. Catastrophic health expenses and impoverishment of households of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Hernández, Everardo; Peláez-Ballestas, Ingris; Boonen, Annelies; Vázquez-Mellado, Janitzia; Hernández-Garduño, Adolfo; Rivera, Fernando Carlos; Teran-Estrada, Leobardo; Ventura-Ríos, Lucio; Ramos-Remus, César; Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra; Goycochea-Robles, Maria Victoria; Bernard-Medina, Ana Guislaine; Burgos-Vargas, Rubén

    2012-01-01

    The cost of certain diseases may lead to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment of households without full financial support by the state and other organizations. To determine the socioeconomic impact of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cost in the context of catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. This is a cohort-nested cross-sectional multicenter study on the cost of RA in Mexican households with partial, full, or private health care coverage. Catastrophic expenses referred to health expenses totaling >30% of the total household income. Impoverishment defined those households that could not afford the Mexican basic food basket (BFB). We included 262 patients with a mean monthly household income (US dollars) of $376 (0–18,890.63). In all, 50.8%, 35.5%, and 13.7% of the patients had partial, full, or private health care coverage, respectively. RA annual cost was $ 5534.8 per patient (65% direct cost, 35% indirect). RA cost caused catastrophic expenses in 46.9% of households, which in the logistic regression analysis were significantly associated with the type of health care coverage (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.6–4.7) and disease duration (OR 1.024, 95%CI 1.002–1.046). Impoverishment occurred in 66.8% of households and was associated with catastrophic expenses (OR 3.6, 95%CI 1.04–14.1), high health assessment questionnaire scores (OR 4.84 95%CI 1.01–23.3), and low socioeconomic level (OR 4.66, 95%CI 1.37–15.87). The cost of RA in Mexican households, particularly those lacking full health coverage leads to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. These findings could be the same in countries with fragmented health care systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  14. [Biometric ranging of the corpses destroyed at the site of a catastrophe in terms of gender, longitudinal and circumferencial dimensions, and the degree of subcutaneous fat distribution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zviagin, V N; Galitskaia, O I; Negasheva, M A

    2012-01-01

    The quantitative criteria for biometric ranging of destroyed corpses in terms of anatomical localization, gender, longitudinal length, trunk circumference, and the folds of subcutaneous fat are proposed. The wealth of anthropometric materials obtained in the studies of various Caucasoid populations was used to calculate the normative tables for biometric ranging of the decomposed corpses. The proposed technology excludes the subjective assessments for the purpose of such classification at the sites of catastrophes. Moreover, it promotes the accumulation of the variety of valuable information, such as the size of the collar, headwear, and footwear, clothing size and height, and portrait features, that can be used for victim identification.

  15. A rate- and state-dependent friction model to describe the seasonal motion of slow-moving earthflows and quantify their potential for catastrophic failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, A. L.; Rempel, A. W.; Roering, J. J.; Hilley, G. E.; Skarbek, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Slow-moving earthflows regularly exhibit seasonal velocity patterns driven by transient perturbations in effective normal stress that alter the frictional resistance along the sliding surface. These annual velocity patterns are ubiquitous in slow-moving landslides throughout the world, with individual landslides often displaying complex spatial patterns of acceleration that can vary from year to year. Here, we model landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional treatment that incorporates variations in effective normal stress and material properties, including both velocity-weakening (VW) and velocity-strengthening (VS) patches, along the sliding surface. We calculate changes in effective stress by allowing rainfall-induced changes in pore-water pressure to diffuse vertically from the ground surface to the landslide base. We then solve for changes in frictional strength and velocity along a 1D slip surface that extends the length of the landslide. Model parameters are calibrated using measurements from laboratory tests, field instruments, and satellite InSAR. Our model is able to produce seasonal variations in sliding rate that mimic the patterns commonly displayed by these slope failures. We use our model to identify the conditions under which these slides can transition from non-catastrophic motion to catastrophic failure. We find that non-catastrophic motion occurs if the landslides are comprised of entirely VS material or if their spatial dimensions do not exceed a critical nucleation length, which is determined by the ratio of VW to VS material and the effective stress. Furthermore, this modeling framework suggests that landslides that exhibit spatially varying motion (i.e. consisting of an ensemble of smaller slip patches) may be less likely to fail catastrophically when compared to landslides that exhibit spatially uniform motion if differences in the timing of motion along the landslide reflect the presence of temporary slip barriers (i

  16. Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

    2018-02-01

    Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  18. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  19. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  20. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  1. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  2. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  3. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  4. Carbon-ion beam irradiation kills X-ray-resistant p53-null cancer cells by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Napapat Amornwichet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To understand the mechanisms involved in the strong killing effect of carbon-ion beam irradiation on cancer cells with TP53 tumor suppressor gene deficiencies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DNA damage responses after carbon-ion beam or X-ray irradiation in isogenic HCT116 colorectal cancer cell lines with and without TP53 (p53+/+ and p53-/-, respectively were analyzed as follows: cell survival by clonogenic assay, cell death modes by morphologic observation of DAPI-stained nuclei, DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs by immunostaining of phosphorylated H2AX (γH2AX, and cell cycle by flow cytometry and immunostaining of Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3. RESULTS: The p53-/- cells were more resistant than the p53+/+ cells to X-ray irradiation, while the sensitivities of the p53+/+ and p53-/- cells to carbon-ion beam irradiation were comparable. X-ray and carbon-ion beam irradiations predominantly induced apoptosis of the p53+/+ cells but not the p53-/- cells. In the p53-/- cells, carbon-ion beam irradiation, but not X-ray irradiation, markedly induced mitotic catastrophe that was associated with premature mitotic entry with harboring long-retained DSBs at 24 h post-irradiation. CONCLUSIONS: Efficient induction of mitotic catastrophe in apoptosis-resistant p53-deficient cells implies a strong cancer cell-killing effect of carbon-ion beam irradiation that is independent of the p53 status, suggesting its biological advantage over X-ray treatment.

  5. Surface water, groundwater and unified 3D-crack network as a triple coupling dynamic system for a river watershed functioning - manifestation in catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Tulenev, Nikita; Trifonov, Dmitriy; Arakelian, Sergei

    2014-05-01

    1. Surface water and groundwater interaction model under conditions of huge level of precipitation in catastrophic floods and mudflows for mountain river watershed is introduced. Seismic processes and volcanic activity impact on the formation of disastrous floods due to dramatic change of the pressure field in groundwater horizons, is under discussion for such a triple coupling system, i.e. surface water - groundwater - crack network. Under the conception we analyze recent (2013) catastrophic water events: the catastrophic floods in Western Europe (May-June, 2013), in the Amur river basin, Russia/China (Aug.-Sept, 2013) and in Colorado, USA (Sept. 12-15,2013). In addition, a separate analysis is carried out for debris event in the Krimsk-city, Caucasus (Krasnodar) region, Russia (July 06-07, 2012). 2. There is a group of problems determined by dramatic discrepancies in water mass balance and other vital parameters, on the one hand, by estimation for different types of atmospheric precipitation (both torrential rain and continuous precipitations) and, on the other hand, for observable natural water events (i.e. catastrophic floods and/or mudflows/debris) on concrete territory. Analysis of many facts result in conclusion that we have the hard comparable/coincidence parameters under traditional conception for discussed events as an isolated/closed (river + rain) runoff-system. In contrast, the reasonable point of view does exist if we take into account the contribution of extra water source, which should be localized in river channel, i.e. functioning of open [(river + rain) + groundwater] flow-system has a principal meaning to understand the events occurrence. 3. The analysis and modeling for the events are carried out by us taking into account the following databases: (i) groundwater map dislocation, it resources and flow balance in studied areas, especially near the land surface being unstable in hydrological sense by many reasons, as well due to heavy rain

  6. Materials and energy : a story of linkages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn, Engelbertus Gerardus Maria

    2012-01-01

    Human society has always depended on a substantial input of materials. At the moment our energy supply is almost completely based on fossil fuels with minor contributions of biomass and uranium based nuclear. Climate science tells us that, in order to avoid catastrophic impacts, we need a transition

  7. Medical and radioecological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Western Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frenzel, Ch.; Llengfelder, E.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: The catastrophe at the unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian SSR which occurred on 26 April 1986, was the most serious accident in the history of nuclear industry and the civil use of nuclear energy until this time. Initial explosions destroyed the reactor completely. During about 10 days, large amounts of radioactive material were released to the western part of Soviet Union as well as to all European countries. 25 years later in March 2011, the next nuclear disaster at a level of INES 7 occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Site in Japan, where 4 reactor units were destroyed by explosions and nuclear melt down processes. Compared with Chernobyl, a larger amount of radioactivity was released in Fukushima. After Chernobyl, the majority of the radionuclide depositions affected the CIS countries. Due to continuously changing of wind directions and weather conditions during the 10 days of release of radioactivity, the radionuclide distribution and deposition was very inhomogeneous not only in the CIS countries, but even at far distances as in Germany, Scandinavia , the north of Scotland and many other countries. The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, has repeatedly placed particular emphasis on the fact that millions of people continue to be directly affected by the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, including acute suffering and continuing health disorders, and that this disaster is a matter of global concern. The most affected countries by the extent of radionuclide deposition show since years the incidence of cancer and other disorders of thyroid as well as many other serious health effects. After Chernobyl, nuclear disasters will happen again – as has been verified in Fukushima - in one of the more than 440 nuclear power stations worldwide. Most of them are located in areas with a population density several fold greater than in the case of Chernobyl. If we do not know the past, we will not be able to

  8. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  9. Reporting of safeguards events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwyer, P.A.; Ervin, N.E.

    1988-02-01

    On June 9, 1987, the Commission published in the Federal Register a final rule revising the reporting requirements for safeguards events. Safeguards events include actual or attempted theft of special nuclear material (SNM); actual or attempted acts or events which interrupt normal operations at power reactors due to unauthorized use of or tampering with machinery, components, or controls; certain threats made against facilities possessing SNM; and safeguards system failures impacting the effectiveness of the system. The revised rule was effective October 8, 1987. On September 14, 1987, the NRC held a workshop in Bethesda, MD, to answer affected licensees' questions on the final rule. This report documents questions discussed at the September 14 meeting, reflects a completed staff review of the answers, and supersedes previous oral comment on the topics covered

  10. Engineering models for catastrophe risk and their application to insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Weimin

    2002-06-01

    Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific modeling techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering models can assist to quantify earthquake risk and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their risk in the United States and abroad.

  11. History and Catastrophe: Tragedy and Reconciliation in Schiller and Hegel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Aranzueque

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available To what extent is it possible be reconciled with a tragic past? Could historical narration or dramatic performance help to get over the traumatic event indeed? Or do they just ascertain its constitutive contradictions, the split and the rift from a pain wich is impossible to sublimate? Is the mourning experience based on the recovery of a feeble balance between the opposite drives, emotions and feelings from the will? Or does it depend on the synthetic assimilation of that opposition into another way of life? This essay travels hand in hand with Schiller and Hegel across the space opened by those questions. It starts from the dissatisfaction generated in the young Hegel by his reading of Schiller’s Wallenstein and it analyzes his different conceptions of the ethic pathos, as well as his uneven perspective about the function of the chorus in the Attic tragedy

  12. Event by Event fluctuations and Inclusive Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Bialas, A.; Koch, V.

    1999-01-01

    Event-by-event observables are compared with conventional inclusive measurements. We find that moments of event-by-event fluctuations are closely related to inclusive correlation functions. Implications for upcomming heavy ion experiments are discussed.

  13. Catastrophic floods and tropical storms over the last 120 years on the Dak Bla River, Central Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Trang; Stevens, Lora; Vu, Tich; Le, Thuyen

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic floods are a common natural disaster in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Given the region's rapid economic development, including an expanding agricultural base and hydroelectric dams, it is important to understand past flood frequency and magnitude. Although mountainous, the highly weathered landscape is not conducive to significant preservation of slack water deposits. Thus, grain size, magnetic susceptibility and carbon/nitrogen ratios of sediment cores from two abandoned channels of the Dak Bla River were used to identify major flood events during the last 120 years. There is a notable increase in magnitude during the late 20th century, with the most pronounced flood occurring in 1972 during the Second Indochina (American-Vietnam) War. The dramatic increase in sediment deposition during the late 20th century is believed to result from anthropogenic alteration of the catchment, including deforestation by bombing during the Second Indochina War and conversion of forest to cropland. Meteorological and river gauge data are rare in Vietnam and span only the last 40 years on the Dak Bla River. For the duration of these records, all major modern floods are triggered by tropical storms bringing excessive rain late in the wet season. Although non-conformable and young radiocarbon dates limit our ability to correlate earlier floods with known tropical storms, the number of direct typhoon strikes and floods during the last 120 years are similar suggesting a possible link beyond the instrumental record. From these data we propose that neither wet years (e.g strong monsoon years) or typhoons are individually responsible for major floods. Catastrophic flooding is a result of a direct tropical storm strike after a normal to wet monsoon season saturates the landscape. If this model is correct, it may be possible to create short-term predictions of flooding help mitigate large-scale disasters. The caveat is that the occurrence and tracks of tropical storms are

  14. Luminescence dosimetry using building materials and personal objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göksu, H Y; Bailiff, I K

    2006-01-01

    There is a growing public awareness of the risk of accidental radiation exposure due to ageing nuclear power installations, illegal dumping of nuclear waste and terrorist activities, and of the consequential health risks to populations in addition to social and economic disturbance extending beyond national boundaries. In the event of catastrophic incidents where no direct radiation monitoring data are available, the application of retrospective dosimetry techniques such as luminescence may be employed with materials from the immediate environment to confirm values of cumulative gamma dose to compare with or augment computational modeling calculations. Application of the method to post-Chernobyl studies has resulted in the development of new procedures using fired building materials with the capability to measure cumulative doses owing to artificial sources of gamma radiation as low as 20 mGy. Combined with Monte Carlo simulations of photon transport, values of cumulative dose in brick can be presented in a form suitable for use in dose-reconstruction efforts. Recent investigations have also shown that certain types of cementitious building material, including concrete, mortar and plaster, and personal objects in the form of telephone cards containing microchips and dental ceramics have the potential to be used for retrospective dosimetry. Examples of the most recent research concerning new materials and examples of application to sites in the Former Soviet Union are discussed.

  15. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, J. L.; Corona-Chavez, P.; Sanchez-Nunez, J. M.; Martinez-Medina, M.; Garduno-Monroy, V. H.; Capra, L.; Garcia-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Maximo, G.

    2015-05-01

    On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of circa 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~ 7 m s-1, destroying many construction walls and covering the church floor with ~ 2 m of mud and debris. Revision of eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. A total volume of the Lamas flood deposit was estimated as 1.5 x 106 m3. The physically based bidimensional (2-D) hydraulic model FLO-2D was implemented to reproduce the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m3 s-1 for a total outflow volume (sediment + water) of 2.5 x 106 m3, similar to the calculations obtained using field measurements. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate

  16. Event boundaries and memory improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettijohn, Kyle A; Thompson, Alexis N; Tamplin, Andrea K; Krawietz, Sabine A; Radvansky, Gabriel A

    2016-03-01

    The structure of events can influence later memory for information that is embedded in them, with evidence indicating that event boundaries can both impair and enhance memory. The current study explored whether the presence of event boundaries during encoding can structure information to improve memory. In Experiment 1, memory for a list of words was tested in which event structure was manipulated by having participants walk through a doorway, or not, halfway through the word list. In Experiment 2, memory for lists of words was tested in which event structure was manipulated using computer windows. Finally, in Experiments 3 and 4, event structure was manipulated by having event shifts described in narrative texts. The consistent finding across all of these methods and materials was that memory was better when the information was distributed across two events rather than combined into a single event. Moreover, Experiment 4 demonstrated that increasing the number of event boundaries from one to two increased the memory benefit. These results are interpreted in the context of the Event Horizon Model of event cognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  18. Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rubino, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

  19. Prevention of catastrophic failure in pressure vessels and pipings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rintamaa, R.; Wallin, K.; Ikonen, K.; Toerroenen, K.; Talja, H.; Keinaenen, H.; Saarenheimo, A.; Nilsson, F.; Sarkimo, M.; Waestberg, S.; Debel, C.

    1989-01-01

    The fracture resistance and integrity of pressure-loaded components have been assessed in a Nordic research programme. Experiments were performed to validate the computational fracture assessment analysis. Two tests were also conducted on a large decommissioned pressure vessel from an oil refinery plant. Different fracture assessment methods were developed and subsequently applied to the tested components. Interlaboratory round robin programmes with the participation of several laboratories were arranged to examine elastic-plastic finit element calculations and fracture mechanics testing. The transferability of material parameters derived from small specimens with simple crack geometries to more realistic crack geometries in real components has been verified. (author)

  20. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk

    2015-01-01

    in the escitalopram group. No other between-group differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Escitalopram did not reduce pain upon ambulation 24 h after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. Future studies on optimal timing, dose, and duration of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment might be warranted....

  1. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  2. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  3. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  4. Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2001-01-01

    A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe

  5. The Media and the Fate of the Medicare Catastrophic Extension Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, David P.; Norem, Lois

    A study examined the relationships between the media, public opinion and the Medicare Catastrophic Act of 1988 which was repealed in 1989. Using the NEXIS electronic database, 11 years (1977-89) of news articles, opinion pieces, editorials, and letters to the editor were harvested in random sequence from the Associated Press news wire, the…

  6. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severeijns, R.; Vlaeyen, J.W.S.; Hout, M.A. van den

    2006-01-01

    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of

  7. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  8. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  9. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the investigation of the catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine used for underground reaming operations. The results of the investigation indicate that failure was due to the fracture of the 32 drive head bolts, 30...

  10. Contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Kim, Yun-Ho; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2016-05-01

    Pain catastrophizing is a key variable that contributes to disability not only in chronic pain disorders but also after trauma. However, there is little evidence concerning the effect of catastrophizing on pain intensity and disability after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. We analyzed 35 patients with acute single-level osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures within 3 days of trauma. Data on demographics, education level, Charlson comorbidity index, pain catastrophizing scale (PCS) score, visual analog scale (VAS) score for back pain, and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were collected. VAS score for back pain and ODI were assessed at enrollment as well as at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after fracture. Each VAS score for back pain and ODI significantly improved compared to the initial values (P osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. As the compression fracture heals, however, age is the critical determinant of disability. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  12. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  13. A Ensaistica de Robert Kurz: Catastrofismo e Lucidez (The Essays of Robert Kurz: Catastrophism and Lucidity).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Jose Carlos

    2000-01-01

    Uses an interpretive approach to the work of Robert Kurz, a German sociologist/essayist whose work has been translated and published in Brazil and who has advanced an apparently "catastrophic thesis" regarding the collapse of the "goods-producing society," or hyperdeveloped capitalism. (BT)

  14. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  15. Price and Welfare Effects of Catastrophic Forest Damage from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes

    1991-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) epidemics are periodically responsible for catastrophic levels of mortality to southern yellow pine forests. Traditional forest damage appraisal techniques developed for site specific economic analysis are theoretically weak since they do not consider aggregate impacts across ecosystems and related markets. Because the...

  16. Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; James K. Agee; Peter Fule; Jon E. Keeley; Carl Key; Stanley G. Kitchen; Richard Miller; Lisa A. Schulte

    2008-01-01

    The perception is that today's large fires are an ecological catastrophe because they burn vast areas with high intensities and severities. However, little is known of the ecological impacts of large fires on both historical and contemporary landscapes. The present paper presents a review of the current knowledge of the effects of large fires in the United States...

  17. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  18. Catastrophic windthrow in the Southern Appalachians: characteristics of pits and mounds and initial vegetation responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton D. Clinton; Corey R. Baker

    2000-01-01

    We characterized pit and mound (PM) topography resulting from catastrophic wind in the Coweeta Basin, and located 48 PM’s across a variety of forest types. Our measurements included pit length, width, and depth; and mound height, thickness, and width. Species of fallen trees were...

  19. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  20. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)