WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic events material

  1. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  2. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  3. Catastrophic models of materials destruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupchishin, A. I.; Taipova, B. G.; Kupchishin, A. A.; Voronova, N. A.; Kirdyashkin, V. I.; Fursa, T. V.

    2016-02-01

    The effect of concentration and type of fillers on mechanical properties of composite material based on polyimide were studied. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET, polyester), polycarbonate (PCAR) and montmorillonite (MM) were used as the fillers. The samples were prepared by mechanically blending the polyimide-based lacquer solutions with different concentrations of the second component. The concentration of filler and its class, especially their internal structure and technology of synthesis determine features of physical and mechanical properties of obtained materials. Models of catastrophic failure of material satisfactorily describe the main features depending on tension ct from deformation e.

  4. INEX 5 - General information. INEX 5 Exercise on Notification, Communication and Interfaces Related to Catastrophic Events Involving Radiation or Radiological Materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The INEX series of international nuclear emergency exercises, organised under the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), has proven successful in testing, investigating and improving the arrangements for responding to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies at the national and international level. Previous INEX exercises focussed largely on national and international aspects of early phase management of emergencies at nuclear power plants and more recently, in INEX 4, on issues in consequence management and transition to recovery in response to malicious acts involving the release of radioactive materials in an urban setting. Since the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it has been recognised that notification, communication, and identifying and obtaining resources during catastrophic events can be difficult and the need for established protocols, policies, and procedures among and between country entities is critical for minimizing negative impacts. Therefore, the benefit and goal of INEX 5 is to provide a basis for enhancing national and international emergency management arrangements related to notification, communication and obtaining resources through the exchange of exercise outcomes and experiences from participating countries, in order to identify good practice and common issues to be addressed. INEX 5 will address emergency management aspects of notification, communication and interfaces between and among country and international organizations. INEX 5 is set up as a table top exercise with three levels of discussion for participants (prior to a release, recognizing/validating a release, and impacts to the radiological event from a catastrophic natural event). Countries can develop additional materials to expand this table top to a full field exercise if preferred. Prior to initiation of the table top, participants will be provided clear guidance about how the exercise will be conducted. Because this exercise may involve government agencies and

  5. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  6. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  7. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  8. Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events

    OpenAIRE

    Verdière, Nathalie; Lanza, Valentina; Charrier, Rodolphe; Provitolo, Damienne; Dubos-Paillard, Edwige; Bertelle, Cyrille; Aziz-Alaoui, Moulay

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the speci c scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account di erent concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Here, we focus more on the sequence of behaviors ...

  9. Population resilience to catastrophic mortality events during early life stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Øystein

    2015-07-01

    Catastrophic mortality events that drastically reduce the abundance of a population or a particular life stage can have long-term ecological and economic effects, and are of great concern in species conservation and management. Severe die-offs may be caused by natural catastrophes such as disease outbreaks and extreme climates, or human-caused disturbances such as toxic spills. Forecasting potential impacts of such disturbances is difficult and highly uncertain due to unknown future conditions, including population status and environmental conditions at the time of impact. Here, we present a framework for quantifying the range of potential, population-level effects of catastrophic events based on a hindcasting approach. A dynamic population model with Bayesian parameter estimation is used to simulate the impact of severe (50-99%) mortality events during the early life stages of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), an abundant marine fish population of high economic value. We quantify the impact of such die-offs in terms of subsequent changes in population biomass and harvest through direct comparison of simulated and historical trends, and estimate the duration of the impact as a measure of population resilience. Our results demonstrate strong resilience to catastrophic events that affect early life stages owing to density dependence in survival and a broad population age structure. Yet, while population recovery is. relatively fast, losses in harvest and economic value can be substantial. Future research efforts should focus on long-term and indirect effects via food web interactions in order to better understand the ecological and economic ramifications of catastrophic mortality events. PMID:26485960

  10. Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic Objects

    CERN Document Server

    Adushkin, Vitaly

    2008-01-01

    Many times all of us could hear from mass media that an asteroid approached and swept past the Earth. Such an asteroid or comet will inevitably strike the planet some day. This volume considers hazards due to collisions with cosmic objects, particularly in light of recent investigations of impacts by the authors. Each chapter written by an expert contains an overview of an aspect and new findings in the field. The main hazardous effects – cratering, shock, aerial and seismic waves, fires, ejection of dust and soot, tsunami are described and numerically estimated. Numerical simulations of impacts and impact consequences have received much attention in the book. Fairly small impacting objects 50 -100 m in diameter pose a real threat to humanity and their influence on the atmosphere and ionosphere is emphasized. Especially vulnerable are industrially developed areas with dense population, almost all Europe is one of them. Special chapters are devoted to the famous 1908 Tunguska event and new results of its sim...

  11. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. PMID:22967051

  12. Market Integration for Shrimp and the Effect of Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Harri, Ardian; Muhammad, Andrew; Jones, Keithly G.

    2010-01-01

    Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Results showed that a cointegrating relation exists between neighboring states, specifically between Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas. C...

  13. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  14. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  15. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  16. New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

  17. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  18. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  19. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  20. The surface of Mars: An unusual laboratory that preserves a record of catastrophic and unusual events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophic and unusual events on Earth such as bolide impacts, megafloods, supereruptions, flood volcanism, and subice volcanism may have devastating effects when they occur. Although these processes have unique characteristics and form distinctive features and deposits, we have diffi culties identifying them and measuring the magnitude of their effects. Our diffi culties with interpreting these processes and identifying their consequences are understandable considering their infrequency on Earth, combined with the low preservation potential of their deposits in the terrestrial rock record. Although we know these events do happen, they are infrequent enough that the deposits are poorly preserved on the geologically active face of the Earth, where erosion, volcanism, and tectonism constantly change the surface. Unlike the Earth, on Mars catastrophic and unusual features are well preserved because of the slow modifi cation of the surface. Signifi cant precipitation has not occurred on Mars for billions of years and there appears to be no discrete crustal plates to have undergone subduction and destruction. Therefore the ancient surface of Mars preserves geologic features and deposits that result from these extraordinary events. Also, unlike the other planets, Mars is the most similar to our own, having an atmosphere, surface ice, volcanism, and evidence of onceflowing water. So although our understanding of precursors, processes, and possible biological effects of catastrophic and unusual processes is limited on Earth, some of these mysteries may be better understood through investigating the surface of Mars. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  1. The psychological impact of a catastrophic earthquake: a retrospective study 50 years after the event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaratou, Helen; Paparrigopoulos, Thomas; Galanos, Gerassimos; Psarros, Constantinos; Dikeos, Dimitris; Soldatos, Constantin

    2008-04-01

    Aim of the present study was to retrospectively assess the impact of a catastrophic earthquake in a sample of 121 survivors, 50 years after the event. Mean age +/- SD of the responders was 72.2 +/- 6.1 years. The majority of the victims (78%) acknowledged a strong overall impact of the earthquake on their lives, and almost all of them had intense recollection of the event at its anniversary. The most frequent symptom during the 6 months after the earthquake was persistent remembering or "reliving" of the event; women had considerably more often recurrent dreams of the earthquake and distress than did men. Women and young adults at the time of the earthquake appear to be the most vulnerable groups regarding the psychological effects of the event. PMID:18414131

  2. Catastrophic drought in East Asian monsoon region during Heinrich event 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Sun, Liguang; Chu, Yangxi; Xia, Zehui; Zhou, Xinying; Li, Xiangzhong; Chu, Zhuding; Liu, Xiangjun; Shao, Da; Wang, Yuhong

    2016-06-01

    Heinrich event 1 (H1) is an important millennial climate event during the last deglaciation. The substantial decreasing of monsoon strength in the East Asian monsoon region during the H1, as shown by stalagmite δ18O records, has been attributed to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is caused by the slowdown/collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, records from different Asian monsoon regions show various trends in precipitation changes during the H1, and these trends cannot be solely interpreted by the southward shift of the ITCZ. In the present study, we reconstructed time-series of East Asian monsoon precipitation between 25,000 and 10,000 a BP from floodplain sediments in the Huai River Basin. A white sediment layer, distinct from other layers in the profile, contains significantly low TOC, tree pollen and fern spore contents, and more positive δ13Corg, and it is deposited during the H1 event. The determined TOC, pollen and δ13Corg time-series, together with previously reported stalagmite δ18O, indicate a catastrophic (severe) drought in Jianghuai Region, one of the East Asian monsoon regions, during the H1. The La Niña condition in tropical Pacific likely also contributes to the catastrophic drought in Jianghuai Region and the precipitation variations in the Asian monsoon region during the H1.

  3. Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lindsey; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage. PMID:26358407

  4. A catastrophic meltwater flood event and the formation of the Hudson Shelf Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E.R.; Butman, B.; Schwab, W.C.; Allison, M.A.; Driscoll, N.W.; Donnelly, J.P.; Uchupi, E.

    2007-01-01

    The Hudson Shelf Valley (HSV) is the largest physiographic feature on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental shelf. The 150-km long valley is the submerged extension of the ancestral Hudson River Valley that connects to the Hudson Canyon. Unlike other incised valleys on the mid-Atlantic shelf, it has not been infilled with sediment during the Holocene. Analyses of multibeam bathymetry, acoustic backscatter intensity, and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for a catastrophic meltwater flood event that formed the modern HSV. The valley and its distal deposits record a discrete flood event that carved 15-m high banks, formed a 120-km2 field of 3- to 6-m high bedforms, and deposited a subaqueous delta on the outer shelf. The HSV is inferred to have been carved initially by precipitation and meltwater runoff during the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and later by the drainage of early proglacial lakes through stable spillways. A flood resulting from the failure of the terminal moraine dam at the Narrows between Staten Island and Long Island, New York, allowed glacial lakes in the Hudson and Ontario basins to drain across the continental shelf. Water level changes in the Hudson River basin associated with the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Iroquois, Vermont, and Albany around 11,450 14C year BP (∼ 13,350 cal BP) may have precipitated dam failure at the Narrows. This 3200 km3 discharge of freshwater entered the North Atlantic proximal to the Gulf Stream and may have affected thermohaline circulation at the onset of the Intra-Allerød Cold Period. Based on bedform characteristics and fluvial morphology in the HSV, the maximum freshwater flux during the flood event is estimated to be ∼ 0.46 Sv for a duration of ∼ 80 days.

  5. Signatures of natural catastrophic events and anthropogenic impact in an estuarine environment, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The sedimentary record of known natural catastrophic events and human activity in the Ahuriri Estuary, Hawke's Bay, is assessed using sedimentological, chemical and geochronological techniques. Evidence for the 1931 Hawke's Bay earthquake, which resulted in an uplift of one to two metres in the Napier area, is given by a change from silt- to sand-dominated sediment in the lower estuary, which is consistent with a shift toward higher energy depositional conditions following uplift. Post-European settlement impact is mainly restricted to the lower estuary, where increased concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb and Cu are attributed to industrial discharges. Chemical data (Cl and S) suggest a change in the depositional environment in the upper estuary due to increased freshwater influx and/or decrease in seawater influence. Dating by 210Pb suggests that this occurred around the middle of the 19th century, and might be attributed to river flooding at that time. 50 refs., 9 figs

  6. Reconstructing the timescale of a catastrophic fan-forming event on Earth using a Mars model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duller, Robert A.; Warner, Nicholas H.; De Angelis, Silvio; Armitage, John J.; Poyatos-Moré, Miquel

    2015-12-01

    The calculation of formation timescales of alluvial fans and deltas on Mars is important as it has direct implications for understanding the planet's hydrologic history. The robustness of sediment transport models is not in doubt but validation of the broad approach using a terrestrial example of similar scale and likely origin, where hydraulic parameters and timescales are known, is useful. Using a catastrophically formed terrestrial fan, where abundant sedimentological information is available, we find that the modeled hydraulic parameters and formation timescales are in very close agreement with the known values of the event. This supports the general modeling approach as applied to Mars fans but also highlights the added value of detailed sedimentary information when reconstructing hydraulics and timescales on Earth and Mars, which cannot be confidently gleaned from the final snapshot of surface geomorphology alone.

  7. Human reaction and risk perception to catastrophic events: a psycho-social and cultural perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catastrophes of various kinds occur worldwide inflicting major human suffering, more so in the less privileged regions of the world. Human beings react differently to different traumatic situations and to the threat of an event in spite of man common underlying factors. Psychological reactions to catastrophic natural events like flooding on the perception of risk of flooding across various communities thus becomes an interesting study. Economic situation, lack of knowledge and resources are assumed to give a totally different perspective to reactions and perception of risk and its interpretation specially in an underprivileged country like India, compared to other developed countries. For the proposed session, the results of a study carried out in India will be presented. This includes reactions and responses of individuals and general public affected by flooding and their perceptions of risk of flooding. The study also focuses on a comparison between the people affected and at risk of flooding. Socio-cultural values, religion and superstitions, common beliefs and expectations from authorities will be studied as underlying variables, to what extent they might have an impact on the behavioral pattern of an individual in a situation and the perception of oncoming risk. A sizeable number of the Indian population resides in areas, which are generally affected by flooding or highly prone to flooding. Could perceptions vary among individuals within the society or is it simply poverty and unaffordability that drive these people info such hazardous areas? Lack of consciousness may seem to be an important variable, but what really matters and needs to be looked into is how threatened they actually feel. (author)

  8. New sedimentological evidence supporting a catastrophic meltwater discharge event along the Beaufort margin, Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotsko, S.; Driscoll, N. W.; Keigwin, L. D.; Mendenhall, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2013, a cruise on the USCGC Healy mapped the Beaufort margin from Barrow, AK into the Amundsen Gulf using a towed CHIRP subbottom profiler and a hull-mounted Knudsen CHIRP subbottom profiler to study the deglaciation of the margin. Sediment cores were also acquired. New grain size analyses for three sediment cores will be presented. These records help constrain the flooding events captured in the existing grain size data from JPC 15, just east of the Mackenzie trough. This core shows evidence of multiple ice rafted debris events that were likely sourced from the retreat of the Amundsen ice stream. These layers have peaks in grain size around ~20 microns compared to the ~5 micron average for the rest of the core. The grain size peaks correlate to the high amplitude reflectors observed in the seismic CHIRP data. Similar reflectors are observed in the seismic data from two of the new core locations, one in the Mackenzie trough and one east of the trough. The seismic data from these stations also record a thick sediment package that is ~7 meters thick at its depocenter. This layer is interpreted to record a massive meltwater discharge event that entered the Arctic via the Mackenzie River. Oxygen isotope data from JPC 15 support an event at this location based on the covarying benthic and planktonic records. In our conceptual model, the pulses of freshwater from the Amundsen Gulf likely freshened the margin sufficiently that the major discharge event was then able to push the system over the edge. This catastrophic glacial lake draining out the Mackenzie River into the Beaufort Sea and export out of the Arctic into the North Atlantic caused diminished meridional overturning circulation - slowing of the conveyor belt thermohaline circulation - which, in turn, potentially caused the Younger Dryas cold period.

  9. Emergency Preparedness for Catastrophic Events at Small and Medium Sized Airports: Lacking or Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Kathleen M.

    2007-01-01

    The implementation of security methods and processes in general has had a decisive impact on the aviation industry. However, efforts to effectively coordinate varied aspects of security protocols between agencies and general aviation components have not been adequately addressed. Whether or not overall security issues, especially with regard to planning for catastrophic terrorist events, have been neglected at the nation's smaller airports is the main topic of this paper. For perspective, the term general aviation is generally accepted to include all flying except for military and scheduled airline operations. Genera aviation makes up more than 1 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and supports almost 1.3 mission high-skilled jobs in professional services and manufacturing and hence is an important component of the aviation industry (AOPA, n.d.). In both conceptual and practical terms, this paper argues for the proactive management of security planning and repeated security awareness training from both an individual and an organizational perspective within the general aviation venue. The results of a research project incorporating survey data from general aviation and small commercial airport managers as well as Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees are reported. Survey findings suggest that miscommunication does take place on different organizational levels and that between TSA employees and airport management interaction can be contentious and cooperation diminished. The importance of organizational training for decreasing conflict and increasing security and preparedness is discussed as a primary implication.

  10. Proposed educational objectives for hospital-based dentists during catastrophic events and disaster response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psoter, Walter J; Herman, Neal G; More, Frederick G; Park, Patricia; Robbins, Miriam; Rekow, E Dianne; Ryan, James M; Triola, Marc M; Glotzer, David

    2006-08-01

    The purpose of this project was to define education and training requirements for hospital-based dentists to efficiently and meaningfully participate in a hospital disaster response. Eight dental faculty with hospital-based training and/or military command and CBRNE (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive) expertise were recruited as an expert panel. A consensus set of recommended educational objectives for hospital-based dentists was established using the following process: 1) identify assumptions supported by all expert panelists, 2) determine current advanced dental educational training requirements, and 3) conduct additional training and literature review by various panelists and discussions with other content and systems experts. Using this three-step process, educational objectives that the development group believed necessary for hospital-based dentists to be effective in treatment or management roles in times of a catastrophic event were established. These educational objectives are categorized into five thematic areas: 1) disaster systems, 2) triage/medical assessment, 3) blast and burn injuries, 4) chemical agents, and 5) biological agents. Creation of training programs to help dentists acquire these educational objectives would benefit hospital-based dental training programs and strengthen hospital surge manpower needs. The proposed educational objectives are designed to stimulate discussion and debate among dental, medical, and public health professionals about the roles of dentists in meeting hospital surge manpower needs. PMID:16896086

  11. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  12. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and catastrophic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SRI International has projected the rate, duration, and magnitude of geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and Gulf Coast over the next million years. This information will be used by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as input to a computer model, which will be used to simulate possible release scenarios and the consequences of the release of nuclear waste from geologic containment. The estimates in this report, although based on best scientific judgment, are subject to considerable uncertainty. An evaluation of the Quaternary history of the two study areas revealed that each had undergone geomorphic change in the last one million years. Catastrophic events were evaluated in order to determine their significance to the simulation model. Given available data, catastrophic floods are not expected to occur in the two study areas. Catastrophic landslides may occur in the Southwest, but because the duration of the event is brief and the amount of material moved is small in comparison to regional denudation, such events need not be included in the simulation model. Ashfalls, however, could result in removal of vegetation from the landscape, thereby causing significant increases in erosion rates. Because the estimates developed during this study may not be applicable to specific sites, general equations were presented as a first step in refining the analysis. These equations identify the general relationships among the important variables and suggest those areas of concern for which further data are required. If the current model indicates that geomorphic processes (taken together with other geologic changes) may ultimately affect the geologic containment of nuclear waste, further research may be necessary to refine this analysis for application to specific sites

  13. Habitability and cosmic catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold; McKay, Christopher P

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic cosmic events such as asteroid impacts appear in the range of some 100 million years and have drastically affected evolution. The author discusses whether and how such events could have occurred in recently found extrasolar planetary systems.

  14. Catastrophe averse strategies for routing and siting in the disposal of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study provides a method for quantitative analysis of a shipment planning of hazardous materials (hazmats). We first formulate a hazmat routing problem as a maximin problem: the assignment of hazmat vehicles is determined so as to minimize the expected consequence; the incident probabilities on each link are chosen so as to maximize the expected consequence, reflecting catastrophe avoidance of the dispatcher. Our analysis then reveals that the maximin problem reduces to a single-level convex programming problem, which shares a common mathematical structure with a logit-type stochastic user equilibrium problem that is well known in the field of transportation science. This enables us to develop a globally convergent algorithm for obtaining the optimal mixed route strategy, which can be effectively applied to real world large-scale networks. (author)

  15. Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

    2010-02-01

    On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

  16. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  17. THE SCIENCE OF REMEDIATION, ABATEMENT, AND DECOMMISSIONING OF CATASTROPHIC (AND LESSER) EVENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a brief overview of some of the activities commonly involved in remediation, abatement, and decommissioning of areas affected by significant events whether natural or man-made. Some examples from the EPA's post-Katrina and anthrax responses are used to demonstrate the sc...

  18. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2016-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  19. The role of temperature and dispersal in moss-microarthropod community assembly after a catastrophic event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdomo, Giselle; Sunnucks, Paul; Thompson, Ross M

    2012-11-01

    There is a clear crisis in the maintenance of biodiversity. It has been generated by a multitude of factors, notably habitat loss, now compounded by the effects of climate change. Predicted changes in climate include increased severity and frequency of extreme climatic events. To manage landscapes, an understanding of the processes that allow recovery from these extreme events is required. Understanding these landscape-scale processes of community assembly and disassembly is hindered by the large scales at which they operate. Model systems provide a means of studying landscape scale processes at tractable scales. Here, we assess the combined effects of temperature and habitat-patch isolation on assembly of naturally diverse moss microarthropod communities after a high-temperature event. We show that community assembly depends on temperature and on degree of habitat isolation. Heated communities were heavily dominated in abundance by two species, one of them relatively large. The resulting size-structure is unlike that seen in the field. Community composition in habitat fragments appears also to have been influenced by the source pool of recolonizing fauna. Our results highlight the value of dispersal in disturbed landscapes and the potential for habitat connectivity to buffer communities from the effects of climate change. PMID:23007093

  20. Locally adapted fish populations maintain small-scale genetic differentiation despite perturbation by a catastrophic flood event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plath Martin

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Local adaptation to divergent environmental conditions can promote population genetic differentiation even in the absence of geographic barriers and hence, lead to speciation. Perturbations by catastrophic events, however, can distort such parapatric ecological speciation processes. Here, we asked whether an exceptionally strong flood led to homogenization of gene pools among locally adapted populations of the Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae in the Cueva del Azufre system in southern Mexico, where two strong environmental selection factors (darkness within caves and/or presence of toxic H2S in sulfidic springs drive the diversification of P. mexicana. Nine nuclear microsatellites as well as heritable female life history traits (both as a proxy for quantitative genetics and for trait divergence were used as markers to compare genetic differentiation, genetic diversity, and especially population mixing (immigration and emigration before and after the flood. Results Habitat type (i.e., non-sulfidic surface, sulfidic surface, or sulfidic cave, but not geographic distance was the major predictor of genetic differentiation. Before and after the flood, each habitat type harbored a genetically distinct population. Only a weak signal of individual dislocation among ecologically divergent habitat types was uncovered (with the exception of slightly increased dislocation from the Cueva del Azufre into the sulfidic creek, El Azufre. By contrast, several lines of evidence are indicative of increased flood-induced dislocation within the same habitat type, e.g., between different cave chambers of the Cueva del Azufre. Conclusions The virtual absence of individual dislocation among ecologically different habitat types indicates strong natural selection against migrants. Thus, our current study exemplifies that ecological speciation in this and other systems, in which extreme environmental factors drive speciation, may be little

  1. Catastrophic impact of extreme flood events on the morphology and evolution of the lower Jökulsá á Fjöllum (northeast Iceland) during the Holocene

    OpenAIRE

    Baynes, Edwin; Attal, Mikael; Dugmore, Andrew; Kirstein, Linda; Whaler, Kathy

    2015-01-01

    The impact of extreme flood events is rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution, despite the potential for catastrophic landscape change in a short period of time. Here, we use an integrated approach of geomorphological mapping, topographic analysis and geophysical surveys to identify and quantify the impact of extreme flood events (jökulhlaups) along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum, Iceland, where evidence for the action of such floods is widespread on microspatial to macrospatial ...

  2. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  3. Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pál, Gergő; Raischel, Frank; Lennartz-Sassinek, Sabine; Kun, Ferenc; Main, Ian G.

    2016-03-01

    An accurate understanding of the interplay between random and deterministic processes in generating extreme events is of critical importance in many fields, from forecasting extreme meteorological events to the catastrophic failure of materials and in the Earth. Here we investigate the statistics of record-breaking events in the time series of crackling noise generated by local rupture events during the compressive failure of porous materials. The events are generated by computer simulations of the uniaxial compression of cylindrical samples in a discrete element model of sedimentary rocks that closely resemble those of real experiments. The number of records grows initially as a decelerating power law of the number of events, followed by an acceleration immediately prior to failure. The distribution of the size and lifetime of records are power laws with relatively low exponents. We demonstrate the existence of a characteristic record rank k*, which separates the two regimes of the time evolution. Up to this rank deceleration occurs due to the effect of random disorder. Record breaking then accelerates towards macroscopic failure, when physical interactions leading to spatial and temporal correlations dominate the location and timing of local ruptures. The size distribution of records of different ranks has a universal form independent of the record rank. Subsequences of events that occur between consecutive records are characterized by a power-law size distribution, with an exponent which decreases as failure is approached. High-rank records are preceded by smaller events of increasing size and waiting time between consecutive events and they are followed by a relaxation process. As a reference, surrogate time series are generated by reshuffling the event times. The record statistics of the uncorrelated surrogates agrees very well with the corresponding predictions of independent identically distributed random variables, which confirms that temporal and spatial

  4. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  5. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  6. Koroška Bela alluvial fan – The result of the catastrophic slope events; (Karavanke Mountains, NW Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Jež

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Koroška Bela alluvial fan deposits were investigated to determine the genesis of the fan and the source area of sediments. The alluvial fan is composed of a sequence of diamicton layers, and related subaeric sediments that were deposited by multiple mass flow events, in some cases certainly by debris flows. The predominant sources ofsediments are tectonically deformed clastic and partly carbonate Carbonifferous and Permian rocks. In diamictons also pebbles of other rocks from the hinterland are present. These were eroded from the channel of Bela during the mass flow events. We estimate the future debris flow hazard along Bela stream as high.

  7. Valuing Catastrophic Citrus Losses

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine "just compensation" when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of quantifying producer losses is estimating chang...

  8. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in Denmark the article investigates the Palestinian temporality of Nakba that is equivalent to a time of security in the sense that it is concerned with existential threats and emergency action. The Arabic term Nakba literally means catastrophe and is in...... Palestinian national discourse used to designate the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, when more than half of the Palestinian population were expelled from their homeland – a reverse national myth about how Palestine failed to come into being. Yet, according to Palestinians in Denmark, the Nakba cannot be relegated...

  9. Ultrasound monitoring of applied forcing, material ageing, and catastrophic yield of crustal structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available A new kind of data analysis is discussed – and a few case histories of actual application are presented – concerning the physical information attainable by acoustic emission (AE records in geodynamically active or volcanic areas. The previous analyses of such same kind of observations were reported in several papers appeared in the last few years, and here briefly recalled. They are concerned with the inference of the forcing ("F" acting on the physical system, and on the ageing ("T" or fatigue of its "solid" structures. The new analysis here discussed deals with the distinction between a state of applied stress ("hammer regime", compared to state of "recovery regime" of the system while it seeks a new equilibrium state after having been perturbed. For instance, in the case of a seismic event – and according to some kind of almost intuitive argument – the "hammer regime" is the phenomenon leading to the main shock, while the "recovery regime" deals with the well known aftershocks. Such same intuitive inference, however, can be investigated by a much more formal algorithm, aimed at envisaging the minor changes of the behaviour of the system, during its history and during its present dynamic evolution. As a demonstrative application, detailed consideration is given of AE records – each one lasting for a few years – collected on the Italian peninsula vs. records collected on the Kefallinìa Island (western Greece. Such two areas are well known being characterised by some great comparative difference in their respective tectonic setting. When considering planetary scale phenomena, they appear comparatively very close to each other. Hence, they are likely being presumably affected by similar large-scale external actions, although they ought to be expected to respond in some completely different way. Such facts are clearly manifested by some substantially different AE responses of the local crustal

  10. 17 January 1984 - Act approving the Agreement between the Kingdom of Belgium and the Federal Republic of Germany on mutual assistance in the event of catastrophes or serious accidents, signed in Brussels on 6 November 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After ratification by the Federal Republic of Germany of the Agreement on mutual assistance in the event of catastrophes or serious accidents, the Belgian Government in turn ratified the Agreement on 17th January 1984. The instruments of ratification having been duly exchanged on 21st March 1984, the Agreement entered into force on 1st May 1984. (NEA)

  11. Should Governments Provide Catastrophe Insurance?

    OpenAIRE

    Jaffee, Dwight; Russell, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina and the terrorist attacks of 9/11 2001 have focused attention on the appropriate role of government in providing insurance against catastrophes. This paper argues that wherever possible governments should follow policies which enable the continuation of a private insurance market. In the event that government must itself provide catastrophe insurance it should follow the same actuarially based pricing and reserving rules that would be followed by a competitive private market.

  12. Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Edgar Oscar

    2013-01-01

    A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

  13. Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pál, Gergő; Raischel, Frank; Lennartz-Sassinek, Sabine; Kun, Ferenc; Main, Ian G

    2016-03-01

    An accurate understanding of the interplay between random and deterministic processes in generating extreme events is of critical importance in many fields, from forecasting extreme meteorological events to the catastrophic failure of materials and in the Earth. Here we investigate the statistics of record-breaking events in the time series of crackling noise generated by local rupture events during the compressive failure of porous materials. The events are generated by computer simulations of the uniaxial compression of cylindrical samples in a discrete element model of sedimentary rocks that closely resemble those of real experiments. The number of records grows initially as a decelerating power law of the number of events, followed by an acceleration immediately prior to failure. The distribution of the size and lifetime of records are power laws with relatively low exponents. We demonstrate the existence of a characteristic record rank k(*), which separates the two regimes of the time evolution. Up to this rank deceleration occurs due to the effect of random disorder. Record breaking then accelerates towards macroscopic failure, when physical interactions leading to spatial and temporal correlations dominate the location and timing of local ruptures. The size distribution of records of different ranks has a universal form independent of the record rank. Subsequences of events that occur between consecutive records are characterized by a power-law size distribution, with an exponent which decreases as failure is approached. High-rank records are preceded by smaller events of increasing size and waiting time between consecutive events and they are followed by a relaxation process. As a reference, surrogate time series are generated by reshuffling the event times. The record statistics of the uncorrelated surrogates agrees very well with the corresponding predictions of independent identically distributed random variables, which confirms that temporal and spatial

  14. Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, J A; Burns, W J; Barrett, A; Bayrak, E; Rose, A; Slovic, P; Suher, M

    2012-04-01

    We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event-attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)-centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed. PMID:21232064

  15. Catastrophic impact of extreme flood events on the morphology and evolution of the lower Jökulsá á Fjöllum (northeast Iceland) during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R. C.; Attal, Mikaël; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Kirstein, Linda A.; Whaler, Kathryn A.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of extreme flood events is rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution, despite the potential for catastrophic landscape change in a short period of time. Here, we use an integrated approach of geomorphological mapping, topographic analysis and geophysical surveys to identify and quantify the impact of extreme flood events (jökulhlaups) along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum, Iceland, where evidence for the action of such floods is widespread on microspatial to macrospatial scales. The apex of the 28-km-long Jökulsárgljúfur canyon is characterised by a complex network of palaeo-flood channels and large vertical knickpoints such as Dettifoss (54 m high) and Hafragilsfoss (20 m high). Downstream, the Forvoð valley contains large terraces of boulder-rich deposits (50 m thick, > 3 km long). Near the outlet of the canyon is Ásbyrgi, a dry canyon (3 km long, 1 km wide, up to 90 m deep) with eroded cataracts and scabland morphology immediately upstream and ~ 90 m above the current river channel. Topographic analysis and electrical resistivity tomography surveys show that 0.144 km3 of rock was eroded from Ásbyrgi during its formation ~ 10,000 years ago, and just 4% of this eroded volume is currently filled with sediment deposits, up to 5 m thick. Deposited boulders across the canyon floor of Ásbyrgi demonstrate that the discharge of the jökulhlaup that formed the canyon was at least 39,000 m3 s- 1. We present a model for the evolution of the lower Jökulsá á Fjöllum and the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon during various stages of an extreme flood event. Reconstruction of the early Holocene flood event includes the initiation and development of different canyons before the capture of all floodwater within one canyon at the end. We tie the evolution of the lower Jökulsárgljúfur canyon to established chronology of flood events during the Holocene farther upstream and highlight the dominant impact of extreme flood events over background processes

  16. Coherent catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, D. J.; Clube, S. V. M.; Napier, W. M.; Steel, D. I.

    We review the theoretical and observational evidence that, on timescales relevant to mankind, the prime collision hazard is posed by temporally correlated impacts (coherent catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 2-10 4 yr) rather than random ones (stochastic catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 5-10 8 yr). The mechanism whereby coherent incursions into and through the terrestrial atmosphere occur is described as being the result of giant cometary bodies arriving in orbits with perihelia in the inner solar system. Hierarchical fragmentation of such large (100 km-plus) bodies — due to thermal stresses near perihelion, collisions in the asteroid belt, or passages through the Jovian Roche radius — results in numerous ˜kilometre-sized objects being left in short-period orbits, and appearing in telescopic searches as Apollo-type asteroids. Many more smaller objects, in the 10-100 metre size range and only recently observed, by the Spacewatch team, are expected to be in replenished clusters in particular orbits as a result of continuing disintegrations of large, differentiated, cometary objects. Gravitational perturbations by Jupiter bring these clusters around to have a node at 1 AU in a cyclic fashion, leading to impacts at certain times of year every few years during active periods lasting a few centuries, such periods being separated by intervals of a few millennia. Furthermore, fragmentations within the hierarchy result in significant bombardment commensurabilities ( Δt ˜ 10-10 2 yr) during active periods occurring at random intervals ( Δt ˜ 10 2-10 3 yr). It appears that the Earth has been subject to such impacts since the break-up of such a comet ˜2×10 4 years ago; currently we are not passing through a high-risk epoch, although some phenomena originating in the products of this break-up have been observed in the 20th century. This most recent hierarchical disintegration, associated with four well-known meteor showers and termed the Taurid Complex, is now recognized as resulting

  17. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  18. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  19. Recent events involving potential loss of control of licensed material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1995, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was informed of, and responded to, two similar events involving phosphorus-32 (P-32) internal contamination of individuals at biomedical research facilities. Although these events both involved P-32, the inherent security issues extend to all facilities using licensed material. This paper briefly describes the two events and similar precursor events. In addition, issues that NRC has identified and the staff actions that are recommended are outlined

  20. Bringing soil science to society after catastrophic events such as big forest fires. Some examples of field approaches in Spanish Mediterranean areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataix-Solera, Jorge; Arcenegui, Vicky; Cerdà, Artemi; García-Orenes, Fuensanta; Moltó, Jorge; Chrenkovà, Katerina; Torres, Pilar; Lozano, Elena; Jimenez-Pinilla, Patricia; Jara-Navarro, Ana B.

    2015-04-01

    Forest fires must be considered a natural factor in Mediterranean ecosystems, but the changes in land use in the last six decades have altered its natural regime making them an ongoing environmental problem. Some big forest fires (> 500 has) also have a great socio-economical impact on human population. Our research team has experience of 20 years studying the effects of forest fires on soil properties, their recovery after fire and the impact of some post-fire management treatments. In this work we want to show our experience of how to transfer part of our knowledge to society after two catastrophic events of forest fires in the Alicante Province (E Spain). Two big forest fires: one in "Sierra de Mariola (Alcoi)" and other in "Montgó Natural Park (Javea-Denia)" occurred in in July 2012 and September 2014 respectivelly, and as consequence a great impact was produced on the populations of nearby affected villages. Immediatelly, some groups were formed through social networks with the aim of trying to help recover the affected areas as soon as possible. Usually, society calls for early reforestation and this preassure on forest managers and politicians can produce a response with a greater impact on fire-affected area than the actual fire. The soil is a fragile ecosystem after forest fire, and the situation after fire can vary greatly depending on many factors such as fire severity, previous history of fire in the area, soil type, topography, etc. An evaluation of the site to make the best decision for recovery of the area, protecting the soil and avoiding degradation of the ecosystem is necessary. In these 2 cases we organized some field activities and conferences to give society knowledge of how soil is affected by forest fires, and what would be the best post-fire management depending on how healthy the soil is and the vegetation resilience after fire and our expectations for a natural recovery. The application of different types of mulch in vulnerable areas, the

  1. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, M. M.; Nyce, C. M.

    2013-08-01

    In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1) the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2) the implicit (or explicit) presence of government entities acting as (re)insurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  2. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Boyer

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1 the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2 the implicit (or explicit presence of government entities acting as (reinsurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  3. The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck; Neng Wang

    2013-01-01

    How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe? We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of shocks and their size distribution, the...

  4. Applying the International Nuclear Event Scale to radioactive materials transport events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Expanding the scope of its activities to include controlling the safe transport of radioactive materials, the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) has decided to apply the INES scale to transport events, following a wide-ranging debate bringing together experts, industry and the Conseil Superieur de la Surete et de l'Information Nucleaire (Higher Council for Nuclear Safety and Information). International interest in French experience has gradually raised the question of harmonised application of the INES scale to transport events by the competent international authorities. (author)

  5. Understanding Atmospheric Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Winston C.

    2009-01-01

    The atmosphere, as in other parts of nature, is full of phenomena that involve rapid transitions from one (quasi-) equilibrium state to another--- i.e. catastrophes. These (quasi-) equilibria are the multiple solutions of the same dynamical system. Unlocking the mystery behind a catastrophe reveals not only the physical mechanism responsible for the transition, but also how the (quasi-) equilibria before and after the transition are maintained. Each catastrophe is different, but they do have some common traits. Understanding these common traits is the first step in studying these catastrophes. In this seminar, three examples chosen based on the speaker's research interest--tropical cyclogenesis, stratospheric sudden warming, and monsoon onset--are given to illustrate how atmospheric catastrophes can be studied.

  6. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  7. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shereef, Rawhya R; El-Abedin, Zein; Abdel Aziz, Rashad; Talat, Ibrahim; Saleh, Mohammed; Abdel-Samia, Hanna; Sameh, Amro; Sharha, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Management of this patient is discussed in detail. PMID:27375916

  8. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  9. Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Ian; Pindyck, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    How should we evaluate public policies or projects to avert, or reduce the likelihood of, a catastrophic event? Examples might include inspection and surveillance programs to avert nuclear terrorism, investments in vaccine technologies to help respond to a "mega-virus," or the construction of levees to avert major flooding. A policy to avert a particular catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in a cost-benefit framework. But because society faces multiple potential catastrophe...

  10. Entanglement in quantum catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Emary, C; Brandes, T; Emary, Clive; Lambert, Neill; Brandes, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    We classify entanglement singularities for various two-mode bosonic systems in terms of catastrophe theory. Employing an abstract phase-space representation, we obtain exact results in limiting cases for the entropy in cusp, butterfly, and two-dimensional catastrophes. We furthermore use numerical results to extract the scaling of the entropy with the non-linearity parameter, and discuss the role of mixing entropies in more complex systems.

  11. Catastrophes in surface scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theoretical and experimental studies concerning atom-surface interactions in the energy range from hyperthermal to approximately 100 eV are reported. An extended study of the interaction of low energetic alkalis (sodium and potassium) with a silver crystal is presented. Finally the ultimate experimental result in this research, the first observation of catastrophes in surface scattering, is shown. The results clearly indicate the strength of the catastrophe analysis in gas-surface scattering. 218 refs.; 40 figs.; 170 schemes; 4 tabs

  12. Catastrophic Crop Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Edwards, William M.

    2003-01-01

    Beginning in 1995 farmers were offered the chance to carry a minimum level of Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) coverage at very little cost. This catastrophic or CAT insurance coverage replaces the protection offered to crop producers under federal disaster programs in recent years.

  13. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  14. THE CATASTROPHIC ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE YOUNGER DRYAS EVENT DURING THE LAST DEGLACIATION%晚冰期Younger Dryas环境灾变

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄春长

    1998-01-01

    新仙女木事件(Younger Dryas Event)是过去15 000年里全球最为严重的环境灾变事件.它使得冰期气候急剧回返,陆地自然环境严重恶化,并且造成更新世末期的生物界大绝灭.该事件在深海沉积、大陆冰盖和湖泊沉积物剖面都有多种十分显著的记录.对其成因和机制的研究,将会深入揭示太阳辐射-大气-海洋-冰盖-陆地-生物圈相互作用系统中的非线性反馈现象,为探索人类面临的全球变化问题提供借鉴.

  15. Unified approach to catastrophic events: from the normal state to geological or biological shock in terms of spectral fractal and nonlinear analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Eftaxias

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An important question in geophysics is whether earthquakes (EQs can be anticipated prior to their occurrence. Pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM emissions provide a promising window through which the dynamics of EQ preparation can be investigated. However, the existence of precursory features in pre-seismic EM emissions is still debatable: in principle, it is difficult to prove associations between events separated in time, such as EQs and their EM precursors. The scope of this paper is the investigation of the pre-seismic EM activity in terms of complexity. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behavior close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. Interestingly, theoretical studies (Hopfield, 1994; Herz and Hopfield 1995; Rundle et al., 1995; Corral et al., 1997 suggest that the EQ dynamics at the final stage and neural seizure dynamics should have many similar features and can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. Motivated by this hypothesis, we evaluate the capability of linear and non-linear techniques to extract common features from brain electrical activities and pre-seismic EM emissions predictive of epileptic seizures and EQs respectively. The results suggest that a unified theory may exist for the ways in which firing neurons and opening cracks organize themselves to produce a large crisis, while the preparation of an epileptic shock or a large EQ can be studied in terms of ''Intermittent Criticality''.

  16. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  17. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  18. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  19. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donnell, Owen; Flores, Gabriela

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Mala...

  20. The limits of catastrophe aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Martin

    2002-06-01

    We discuss the management of catastrophe-risks from a theoretical point of view. The concept of a catastrophe is informally and formally defined, and a number of desiderata for catastrophe-averse decision rules are introduced. However, the proposed desiderata turn out to be mutually inconsistent. As a consequence of this result, it is argued that the "rigid" form of catastrophe aversion articulated by, for example, the maximin rule, the maximum probable loss rule, (some versions of) the precautionary principle, and the rule proposed in Ekenberg et al. (1997, 2000) should be given up. An alternative form of "non-rigid" catastrophe aversion is considered. PMID:12088231

  1. Valuing Catastrophic Losses for Perennial Agricultural Crops

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine 'just compensation' when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of estimating changes in producer welfare is the c...

  2. Recent catastrophic landslides and mitigation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper present...

  3. Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cavallo, Eduardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Noy, Ilan; Pantano, Juan

    2010-01-01

    We examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. We assess the counterfactual of the cases studied by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run. However, we also show that thi...

  4. Abdominal Vascular Catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Manpreet; Koyfman, Alex; Martinez, Joseph P

    2016-05-01

    Abdominal vascular catastrophes are among the most challenging and time sensitive for emergency practitioners to recognize. Mesenteric ischemia remains a highly lethal entity for which the history and physical examination can be misleading. Laboratory tests are often unhelpful, and appropriate imaging must be quickly obtained. A multidisciplinary approach is required to have a positive impact on mortality rates. Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm likewise may present in a cryptic fashion. A specific type of ruptured aneurysm, the aortoenteric fistula, often masquerades as the more common routine gastrointestinal bleed. The astute clinician recognizes that this is a more lethal variant of gastrointestinal hemorrhage. PMID:27133247

  5. Catastrophic disruption experiments: Recent results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, G.; Ryan, E. V.; Nakamura, A. M.; Giblin, I.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the progress in the field of catastrophic disruption experiments over the past 4 years, since the publication of the review paper by Fujiwara et al. (1989). We describe the development of new techniques to produce shattering impacts relevant to the study of the collisional evolution of the asteroids, and summarize the results from numerous experiments which have been performed to date, using a variety of materials for both the impactor and the targets. Some of these, such as ice-on-ice, loose aggregates and pressurized targets, are quite new and have provided novel and exciting results. Some of the gaps existing previously in the data on fragment ejection-angle distributions, as well as translational and rotational velocity fields (including fine fragments) have been filled, and these new results will be surveyed.

  6. Catastrophic fragmentation of asteroids: Evidence from meteorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keil, K.; Haack, H.; Scott, E. R. D.

    1994-01-01

    Meteorites are impact-derived fragments from approximately 85 parent bodies. For seven of these bodies, the meteorites record evidence suggesting that they may have been catastrophically fragmented. We identify three types of catastrophic events: (1) impact and reassemble events greater than 4.4 Gy ago, involving molten or very hot parent bodies (greater than 1200 C); this affected the parent bodies of the ureilites, Shallowater, and the mesosiderites. In each case, the fragments cooled rapidly (approximately 1-1000 C/day) and then reassembled. (2) Later impacts involving cold bodies which, in some cases, reassembled; this occurred on the H and L ordinary chondrite parent bodies. The L parent body probably suffered another catastrophic event about 500 My ago. (3) Recent impacts of cold, multi-kilometer-sized bodies that generated meter-sized meteoroids; this occurred on the parent bodies of the IIIAB irons (650 My ago), the IVA irons (400 My ago), and the H ordinary chondrite (7 My ago).

  7. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  8. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  9. Status of transport events involving radioactive materials which occurred in France between 1999 and 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents transport events involving radioactive materials, occurred on French territory from 1999 to 2011, listed in the IRSN's database. 1,304 events have been recorded. For each of them, many parameters have been collected and analysed from information listed in the notifications and reports of the events sent by users (type of event, purpose, package design, level on the INES scale...). The numbers of events notified in 2010 and 2011 are slightly higher than the average of 100 events per year. The two main causes of notification concern documentation errors (in transport documents or labeling) and handling mishaps. The downward trend of frequency of package or conveyance contaminations has been confirmed. A short description of the outstanding events occurred in 2010 and 2011 is proposed. This synthesis also gives an outline of the actions recommended by IRSN to avoid recurrence of the notified events and improve the safety of the transports of radioactive materials

  10. Catastrophic medical expenditure risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; O'Donnell, Owen

    2016-03-01

    We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is consistent with a model of reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. Unlike the risk premium, the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses, and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised, but not actuarially fair, insurance. An empirical illustration using data from seven Asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries. In general, risk is higher among poorer, rural and chronically ill populations. PMID:26812650

  11. Presidential Address: Catastrophe Theory and Catastrophes in China's Civil Service Examinations (Part 1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Costa, Ayres

    1991-01-01

    Introduces Rene Thom's catastrophe theory, which is based upon complex theorems in multidimensional geometry. Catastrophe theory analysis begins by identifying the occurrence of major discontinuities, or catastrophes, in a system such as civil service exams, resulting in catastrophic change. (KS)

  12. Volcanoes and global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simkin, Tom

    1988-01-01

    The search for a single explanation for global mass extinctions has let to polarization and the controversies that are often fueled by widespread media attention. The historic record shows a roughly linear log-log relation between the frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions and the volume of their products. Eruptions such as Mt. St. Helens 1980 produce on the order of 1 cu km of tephra, destroying life over areas in the 10 to 100 sq km range, and take place, on the average, once or twice a decade. Eruptions producing 10 cu km take place several times a century and, like Krakatau 1883, destroy life over 100 to 1000 sq km areas while producing clear global atmospheric effects. Eruptions producting 10,000 cu km are known from the Quaternary record, and extrapolation from the historic record suggests that they occur perhaps once in 20,000 years, but none has occurred in historic time and little is known of their biologic effects. Even larger eruptions must also exist in the geologic record, but documentation of their volume becomes increasingly difficult as their age increases. The conclusion is inescapable that prehistoric eruptions have produced catastrophes on a global scale: only the magnitude of the associated mortality is in question. Differentiation of large magma chambers is on a time scale of thousands to millions of years, and explosive volcanoes are clearly concentrated in narrow belts near converging plate margins. Volcanism cannot be dismissed as a producer of global catastrophes. Its role in major extinctions is likely to be at least contributory and may well be large. More attention should be paid to global effects of the many huge eruptions in the geologic record that dwarf those known in historic time.

  13. Narration, Detail, and Event Relevance in Illustrated Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitaker, Janet L.; Sullivan, Howard J.

    This study was an investigation of the effects of narration and level of picture detail on children's recall of illustrated materials. Third and sixth grade students were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups: groups one and two viewed two 7-frame stories accompanied by oral narration; groups three and four viewed the same stories…

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  15. On Catastrophe and Cavitation for Spherical Cavity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MingJIN; KefuHUANG; 等

    1999-01-01

    This work deals with catastrophe of a spherical cavity and cavitation of a spherical cavity for Hooke material with 1/2 Poisson's ratio.A nonlinear problem.which is the Cauchy traction problem,is solved analytically.The governing equations are written on the deformed region or on the present configuration.And the conditions are described on moving boundary.A closed form solution is found.Furthermore,a bifurcation solution in closed form is given from the trivial homogeneous solution of a solid sphere.The results indicate that there is a tangent bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a sphere with a cavity.On the tangent bifurcation point,the cavity grows up suddenly,which is a kind of catastrophe,And there is a pitchfork bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a solid sphere.On the pitchfork bifurcation point.there is a cavitation in the solid sphere.

  16. Women, catastrophe and mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raphael, Beverley; Taylor, Mel; McAndrew, Virginia

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the concept of catastrophic experience, its relationship to the range of acute and prolonged stressors to which women may be exposed and the broad impacts on their mental health and well-being. It identifies catastrophe in terms of multiple accumulated stresses including death, loss, victimization, demoralization, shame, stigmatization, helplessness and identity. Catastrophic experiences include personal violence in domestic circumstances of intimate partner abuse, sexual assault and child physical and sexual abuse. Women's experiences of loss through the violent deaths of children and loved ones may also have such enduring impacts. Terrorism victimizes men and women in this way, with the enduring impacts for women in terms of threat of ongoing attacks as well as acute effects and their aftermath. The catastrophes of war, conflict, genocide, sexual exploitation and refugee status differentially affect large numbers of women, directly and through their concerns for the care of their children and loved ones. Ultimate catastrophes such as Hiroshima and the Holocaust are discussed but with recognition of the very large numbers of women currently experiencing catastrophe in ongoing ways that may be silent and unrecognized. This is significant for clinical care and population impacts, and in the losses for women across such contexts. PMID:18058439

  17. A gradient catastrophe mechanism in contexts of the phase change condition

    OpenAIRE

    Durmagambetov, A. A.

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the mechanism of occurrence of a gradient catastrophe when changing phase. Materials shows that classical methods of estimation theory of functions do not fit the problem of studying the gradient catastrophe. We present material showing that the embedding theorem can not give an opportunity to study the process of a gradient catastrophe. In fact, work justifies pessimism Terence Tao in the insolvency of modern mathematics to solve the problem of the Navier-Stokes equations...

  18. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Roda, Manuel; Zegers, Tanja E; Oosthoek, Jelmer H P

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with ...

  19. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  20. Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, W. C.

    1985-01-01

    The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.

  1. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  2. Catastrophic Fires in the Russian Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhinin, A. I.; Soja, A. J.; McRae, D. J.; Cahoon, D. R.; Stocks, B. J.; Dubrovskaya, O. A.; Ji-Zhong, J.; Flannigan, M.; DeGroot, B.; Westberg, D.; Stackhouse, P. W.; Conard, S. G.; Hao, W. M.

    2011-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the severity of wildfires and the implications for carbon emissions in the boreal zone are globally significant because Russia contains two-thirds of the world's boreal forest and peat lands. Wildfires in Russia burn from 2 to 20 million ha annually, depending on burning conditions, yet quantification of trends in fire patterns is hampered by the lack of accurate historic fire data. Official Russian wildfire records greatly underestimate burned areas. However, satellite data for Russia have become easily available for assessing area burned since 1980, and we are in the process of analyzing these data to map historic burned area and fire patterns. Catastrophic fire refers to large, uncontrollable fires that are associated with extreme weather conditions. In Russia, major catastrophic fire events are associated with stable anticyclonic systems, which lead to severe drought that supports extreme fire behavior. These forest fires result in large areas burned and high consumption of vegetation and organic soil horizons. Additionally, thick smoke can reduce visibility, which often paralyzes suppression efforts. In recent years, there have been several large and often economically devastating fire complexes across Russia (European Russia, Tyva, Sakha, Chita and the Far East). We present evidence of the association of these large fires with very high or extreme fire weather danger. We assert that these large fire systems have increased in severity in response to current changes in weather and climate, and we argue that catastrophic fires are likely to increase in the future, as climate warms in the northern hemisphere upper latitudes of Russia.

  3. Catastrophic disasters and the design of disaster medical care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, L E; Reutershan, T P

    1987-09-01

    The National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) is aimed at medical care needs resulting from catastrophic earthquakes, which may cause thousands of deaths and injuries. Other geophysical events may cause great mortality, but leave few injured survivors. Weather incidents, technological disasters, and common mass casualty incidents cause much less mortality and morbidity. Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the local medical care system. Supplemental care is provided by disaster relief forces; this care should be adapted to prevalent types of injuries. Most care should be provided at the disaster scene through supplemental medical facilities, while some can be provided by evacuating patients to distant hospitals. Medical response teams capable of stabilizing, sorting, and holding victims should staff supplemental medical facilities. The NDMS program includes hospital facilities, evacuation assets, and medical response teams. The structure and capabilities of these elements are determined by the medical care needs of the catastrophic disaster situation. PMID:3631673

  4. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism...

  5. Constructive criterion of catastrophe inevitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical procedure is proposed for the constructive criteria of nuclear catastrophe inevitability. It was concluded that the procedure can fulfill the objective set, and it allows to make a full formal safety classification of object states. (N.T.). 1 ref., 1 fig

  6. Material control study: a directed graph and fault tree procedure for adversary event set generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In work for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory is developing an assessment procedure to evaluate the effectiveness of a potential nuclear facility licensee's material control (MC) system. The purpose of an MC system is to prevent the theft of special nuclear material such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium. The key in the assessment procedure is the generation and analysis of the adversary event sets by a directed graph and fault-tree methodology

  7. Earthquake statistics inferred from plastic events in soft-glassy materials

    CERN Document Server

    Benzi, Roberto; Trampert, Jeannot

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which have strong similarities with seismic events. Based on a suitable definition of displacement in the continuum, we show that the plastic events obey a Gutenberg-Richter law with exponents similar to those for real earthquakes. We further find that average acceleration, energy release, stress drop and recurrence times scale with the same exponent. The approach is fully self-consistent and all quantities can be calculated at all scales without the need of ad hoc friction or statistical laws. We therefore suggest that our approach may lead to new insight into understanding of the physics connecting the micro and macro scale of earthquakes.

  8. Collaboration or Control?: the struggle for power in catastrophic disaster response

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardo, Tony S.

    2007-01-01

    Past domestic catastrophic disasters have required massive Department of Defense (DoD) Title 10 involvement. During Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina, DoDs initial response, although critical, was criticized as slow. The increased risks to the United States of cataclysmic events have solidified DoDs mandatory response to future events. This has punctuated the importance of DoDs initial response capability. Historically, DoDs response to catastrophic disasters was instantaneous. This was in p...

  9. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  10. Experiments on Mixotrophic Protists and Catastrophic Darkness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harriet; Cockell, Charles S.; Goodson, Claire; Price, Nicola; Simpson, Annika; Thomas, Benjamin

    2009-08-01

    Catastrophically darkened photic zone conditions in water bodies are postulated to be induced by a diversity of mechanisms that are recorded in the geological record, including asteroid and comet impacts and large-scale volcanic eruptions. Giant wildfires, such as those that followed the great fires in Siberia in 1915, have been directly shown to cause large reductions in sunlight penetrating to the ground. Previous studies on the response of phototrophs to s udden prolonged darkness have focused on the survival of axenic strains. In this paper, we describe laboratory experiments to investigate the survival and growth of isolated and mixed cultures of freshwater and marine mixotrophs after 6 months of darkness and in the low light that would follow these events. Mixotrophs could survive 6 months of darkness. Some species used dissolved organic carbon, which can be released from dead biomass after loss of light and was shown to improve feeding rates. Mixotrophs also improved the survival and subsequent growth of obligate phototrophs at low light levels when grown in mixed cultures. The ability of mixotrophs to switch from photosynthesis to heterotrophy following sudden darkening would not only allow them to survive but to grow and contribute to active food chains. The experiments suggest that, following the return of light, resumption of photosynthesis can be rapid. These experiments improve our understanding of the collapse of photosynthesis following catastrophic darkening and emphasize the important role of mixotrophy in the resilience of the photosynthetic biosphere during such periods. We speculate on the implications for the Cretaceous-Tertiary impact event and periods of global freezing.

  11. The impact of mega-catastrophes on insurers: an exposure-based analysis of the U.S. homeowners' insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Insurance is a key risk-sharing mechanism that protects citizens and governments from the losses caused by natural catastrophes. Given the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes over recent years, this article analyzes the performance effects of mega-catastrophes for U.S. insurance firms using a measure of market expectations. Specifically, we analyze the share price losses of insurance firms in response to catastrophe events to ascertain whether mega-catastrophes significantly damage the performance of insurers and whether different types of mega-catastrophes have different impacts. The main message from our analysis is that the impact of mega-catastrophes on insurers has not been too damaging. While the exact impact of catastrophes depends on the nature of the event and the degree of competition within the relevant insurance market (less competition allows insurers to recoup catastrophe losses through adjustments to premiums), our overall results suggest that U.S. insurance firms can adequately manage the risks and costs of mega-catastrophes. From a public policy perspective, our results show that insurance provides a robust means of sharing catastrophe losses to help reduce the financial consequences of a catastrophe event. PMID:25041510

  12. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  13. Radiological emergencies due to postulated events of melted radioactive material mixed in steel reaching public domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radioactive materials are used widely in various applications, which in turn have resulted in its large scale availability to the various end users. Though in India, there is strict regulatory control on obtaining radioactive material and their use, there have been reported cases of radioactive material detected as steel contaminant in the public domain elsewhere. This led to the analysis on estimation of the radiation field during the postulated event of radionuclides 60Co and 137Cs getting into the alloys of steel. The postulated cases of radioactive material getting mixed during the alloy making are studied for two case studies to ascertain the detection and capability of identifying the radioactive material even in trace levels, are presented in this paper. For 60Co and 137Cs nuclides - either by design or unintentionally, as low as 10 mg gaining entry into the matrix of 100 kg of the alloy during its making, it is estimated and shown that the radioactive materials can easily be detected. It is feasible due to the use of sensitive radiation monitors available at the Emergency Response Centers-Department of Atomic Energy, which are capable of detecting radiation field above the natural radiation background, the event can be detected, and the consequences can be minimized. (author)

  14. Technical meeting on 'Primary coolant pipe rupture event in liquid metal cooled fast reactors'. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Liquid Metal cooled Fast Reactors (LMFR) or in accelerator driven sub-critical systems (ADS) with LMFR like sub-critical cores, the primary coolant pipes (PCP) connect the primary coolant pumps to the grid plate. A rupture in one of these pipes could cause significant loss of coolant flow to the core with severe consequences. In loop type reactors, all primary pipelines are provided with double envelopes and inter-space coolant leak monitoring systems that permit leak detection before break. Thus, the PCP rupture event can be placed in the beyond design basis event (BDBE) category. Such an arrangement is difficult to incorporate for pool type reactors, and hence it could be argued that the PCP rupture event needs to be analysed in detail as a design basis event (DBE, category 4 event). The primary coolant pipes are made of ductile austenitic stainless steel material and operate at temperatures of the cold pool and at comparatively low pressures. For such low stressed piping with negligible creep and embrittlement effects, it is of interest to discuss under what design provisions, for pool type reactors, the guillotine rupture of PCP could be placed in the BDBE category. The topical Technical Meeting (TM) on 'Primary Coolant Pipe Rupture Event in Liquid Metal Cooled Reactors' was called to enable the specialists to present the philosophy and analyses applied on this topic in the various Member States for different LMFRs. The scope of the Technical Meeting was to provide a global forum for information exchange on the philosophy applied in the various participating Member States and the analyses performed for different LMFRs with regard to the primary coolant pipe rupture event. More specifically, the objectives of the Technical Meeting were to review the safety philosophy for the PCP rupture event in pool type LMFR, to assess the structural reliability of the PCP and the probability of rupture under different conditions (with/without in-service inspection), to

  15. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

  16. Is Geothermal Simulation a "Catastrophe"?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, George F.

    1980-12-16

    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e. two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equihbrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. In this paper, we present an alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as "catastrophe theory". [Thom, 1975

  17. Is geothermal simulation a catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, G.F.

    1980-01-01

    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e., two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equilibrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. An alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics is presented. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as catastrophe theory.

  18. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  19. The Diseconomies of Environmental Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2006-01-01

    Four factors are almost certain to lead to one or more catastrophes unless major remedial measures are taken. (1) China has replaced the United States as the world s leading consumer of resources, except for oil (Brown, 2006a), but China is already a major factor in the world market in this area also. Together, China and the United States consume approximately half the world s resources and the global population is still increasing on a finite planet. (2) The over 20% global ecological oversh...

  20. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according to...... the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  1. Erosion and redeposition of divertor and wall materials during abnormal events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    High energy deposition to in-vessel components of fusion reactors is expected to occur during abnormal operating conditions. This high energy dump in short times may result in very high surface temperatures and can cause severe erosion as a result of melting and vaporization of these components. One abnormal operating condition results from plasma disruptions where the plasma loses confinement and dumps its energy on reactor components. Another abnormal condition occurs when a neutral beam used in heating the plasma shines through the vacuum vessel to parts of the wall with no plasma present in the chamber. A third abnormal event that results in high energy deposition is caused by the runaway electrons to chamber components following a disruption. The failure of these components under the expected high heat loads can severely limit the operation of the fusion device. The redeposition of the eroded materials from these abnormal events over the first wall and other components may cause additional problems. Such problems are associated with tritium accumulation in the freshly deposited materials, charge exchange sputtering and additional impurity sources, and material compatibility issues

  2. Thunderstorms as extreme climate event in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anđelković Goran

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Humankind has been exposed to climate extremes from the very beginning of its existence. Today, prevention and mitigation of natural catastrophes have become a priority for International Union and World Meteorological Organization. Atmospheric electrical discharges and thunders represent an event characteristic of our part of the world in the warm half of a year. This climate event pose a danger to human life and material goods, so this work discusses approximate number of days with thunder and the absolutely highest number of days with thunder in Serbia in the period from 1995 to 2005.

  3. Catastrophe mechanism & classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅰ) --Fold catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The mechanism of discontinuity behavior has important significance in the study of thermal science,such as fire,combustion,explosion and heat transfer.This sort of discontinuity behavior and the catastrophe caused by system nonlinearity may be equivalently classified according to the catastrophe model promulgated by catastrophe theory.Under the conditions of uniform temperature and thermal isolation,the self-ignition behavior of a Semenov System can be viewed as a result of the fold catastrophe of the system.

  4. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  5. Damaging impacts of energetic charge particles on materials in plasma energy explosive events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Deng Bai-Quan; Peng Li-Lin; Yan Jian-Cheng; Luo Zheng-Ming; Chen Zhi

    2006-01-01

    To provide some reference data for estimation of the erosion rates and lifetimes of some candidate plasma facing component (PF3 materials in the plasma stored energy explosive events (PSEEE), this paper calculates the sputtering yields of Mo, W and deuterium saturated Li surface bombarded by energetic charged particles by a new sputtering physics description method based on bipartition model of charge particle transport theory. The comparisons with Monte Carlo data of TRIM code and experimental results are made. The dependences of maximum energy deposition,particle and energy reflection coefficients on the incident energy of energetic runaway electrons impinging on the different material surfaces are also calculated. Results may be useful for estimating the lifetime of PFC and analysing the impurity contamination extent, especially in the PSEEE for high power density and with high plasma current fusion reactor.

  6. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-01-01

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC. PMID:25351503

  7. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  8. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  9. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  10. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  11. Fracto—emissions in Catastrophic Cleavage Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HonglaiTAN; WeiYANG

    1996-01-01

    Fracto-emissions accompanying crack propagation are observed in the recent experiments.The energy impulses during and after fracture stimulate the fracto-emissions.Model concerning atomic scale cleavage processes is proposed to formulate a catastrophic fracure theory relevant to these phenomena.A criterion for catastrophic jump of the cleavage potential is applied to representative crystals.

  12. 76 FR 50929 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-17

    ..., published at 48 FR 29115, June 24, 1983. Executive Order 12988 This proposed rule has been reviewed in...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Federal Crop Insurance Corporation 7 CFR Part 402 RIN 0563-AC31 Catastrophic Risk... Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) proposes to amend the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  13. Environmental Catastrophes Under Time-inconsistent Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, T.O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-in

  14. Events leading to foreign material being left in the primary heat transport system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On October 6,1995, following an extensive maintenance outage which had included boiler primary side cleaning, a Primary Heat Transport (PHT) system pump run was started in preparation for ultrasonic feeder flow measurements. Wooden debris in the system resulted in failure of the shaft seals of the PHT Pump 1. The subsequent investigation and assessment of this event provided an understanding of both the pump shaft failure mechanism and the origin of the debris in the PHT system. The pump shaft failed as a result of friction-generated heat resulting from contact between the rotating shaft and the stationary seal housing. This contact was initiated by mechanical and hydraulic imbalance in the pump impeller caused by wooden debris lodged in the impeller. The origin of the wooden debris was a temporary plywood cover which was inadvertently left in a boiler following maintenance. This cover moved from the boiler to the pump impeller when the PHT pumps were started. The cover was not accounted for and verified as being removed prior to boiler closure, although a visual inspection was conducted. A detailed institutional process for component accounting and verification of removal of materials did not exist at the time of this event. Details of the methods used to establish alternative heat sinks, provide debris recovery facilities and to assess the fitness for duty of the heat transport system and fuel channels prior to reactor startup are discussed in detail elsewhere. This report will concentrate on the events leading up to and following the events which ultimately resulted in failure of the PHT pump shaft

  15. Catastrophe mechanism and classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅱ) -- Cusp catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The catastrophe mechanisms of thermal performance characteristics of the firebox gas combustion system were analyzed from the viewpoint of catastrophe theory. The mathematical models of cusp catastrophe were established. The relationship between the thermal performance characteristics and the changing of system control variables was studied. The cusp catastrophe mechanisms of typical performance characteristics, such as kicking and lagging, and those of transition from quenching to igniting were explained. It was illustrated that discontinuity behavior of thermal systems with an "S" motion feature curve and lagging feature may be equivalently classified according to the topology of cusp catastrophe, influenced by two groups of independent control variables.

  16. Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

  17. A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. III. Catastrophe of the Eruptive Filament in a Magnetic Null Point and Formation of an Opposite-Handedness CME

    CERN Document Server

    Uralov, A M; Rudenko, G V; Myshyakov, I I; Chertok, I M; Filippov, B P; Slemzin, V A

    2014-01-01

    Our analysis in Papers I and II (Grechnev et al., 2014, Solar Phys. 289, 289 and 1279) of the 18 November 2003 solar event responsible for the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm has revealed a complex chain of eruptions. In particular, the eruptive filament encountered a topological discontinuity located near the solar disk center at a height of about 100 Mm, bifurcated, and transformed into a large cloud, which did not leave the Sun. Concurrently, an additional CME presumably erupted close to the bifurcation region. The conjectures about the responsibility of this compact CME for the superstorm and its disconnection from the Sun are confirmed in Paper IV (Grechnev et al., Solar Phys., submitted), which concludes about its probable spheromak-like structure. The present paper confirms the presence of a magnetic null point near the bifurcation region and addresses the origin of the magnetic helicity of the interplanetary magnetic clouds and their connection to the Sun. We find that the orientation of a magnetic...

  18. Response to events involving the inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    of Understanding (MOU) (1998) to promote co-operation at the international level in order to improve the control of radioactive materials. At the time of the drafting of this report, a similar MOU between the IAEA and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) is pending. There are a number of measures that must be undertaken by States to combat the illicit trafficking and inadvertent movements of radioactive materials. These measures are, generally, shared between the regulatory and law enforcement agencies as part of a State's national arrangements. One of these measures is monitoring for radioactive materials at borders. This Technical Document (TECDOC) provides information to front-line officers on response to events involving the detection of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The emphasis in this publication is on operational and tactical response measures. These may entail a multi-agency response, particularly at the tactical level. Detailed scientific information has been kept to a minimum as it is recognized that the majority of law enforcement personnel will not have the background necessary to use such information effectively. The prime objective of this TECDOC is to provide Member States with practical information for use by emergency response and law enforcement personnel involved in dealing with incidents of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The purpose of the response is to regain control of the relevant radioactive materials so that the risk of harm to people and the environment is mitigated. This information is aimed primarily at police, customs and other law enforcement officers who may become involved in incidents concerning inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. Effective inter-agency co-operation can only be achieved if personnel who are not normally involved with radiological emergencies are aware of the issues associated with

  19. Response to events involving the inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    of Understanding (MOU) (1998) to promote co-operation at the international level in order to improve the control of radioactive materials. At the time of the drafting of this report, a similar MOU between the IAEA and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) is pending. There are a number of measures that must be undertaken by States to combat the illicit trafficking and inadvertent movements of radioactive materials. These measures are, generally, shared between the regulatory and law enforcement agencies as part of a State's national arrangements. One of these measures is monitoring for radioactive materials at borders. This Technical Document (TECDOC) provides information to front-line officers on response to events involving the detection of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The emphasis in this publication is on operational and tactical response measures. These may entail a multi-agency response, particularly at the tactical level. Detailed scientific information has been kept to a minimum as it is recognized that the majority of law enforcement personnel will not have the background necessary to use such information effectively. The prime objective of this TECDOC is to provide Member States with practical information for use by emergency response and law enforcement personnel involved in dealing with incidents of inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. The purpose of the response is to regain control of the relevant radioactive materials so that the risk of harm to people and the environment is mitigated. This information is aimed primarily at police, customs and other law enforcement officers who may become involved in incidents concerning inadvertent movement or illicit trafficking of radioactive materials. Effective inter-agency co-operation can only be achieved if personnel who are not normally involved with radiological emergencies are aware of the issues associated with

  20. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  1. The reasons for the application of chaos theory to the analysis of catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valery, Kudin

    2014-05-01

    The study of catastrophes is necessary for understanding the nature of the interaction between the individual and the universal in the process of the development of complex systems. Chaos theory, allowing describing adaptation and bifurcation mechanisms for the development of systems, defines the catastrophes as a transition of the system into a different state (change of structure). The previous state of the system is destroyed because of fluctuations, which do not play a role in the development of the system until it reaches the instability region that is inherent to any system. The catastrophe is considered in this theory as a stage in the evolution of the system, and thus emphasizes the importance of catastrophes for the development of any system. We rarely manage events comprehensively, as events are always subject to changes like gas molecules changing the trajectory of motion each moment under the influence of countless blows. The concept of catastrophes is much broader and is generally applicable to any final result of collision of opposing aspirations. Philosophical definition of catastrophes comes down to the destruction of the unity, accompanied by violent collision between different parts, the growing disruption, failure to prevent crossing the dangerous threshold... As a final vertex of action, disaster is not, however, directly its end: the action may continue after the catastrophe, but in the direction that is determined by the character of opposing aspirations. Major catastrophes, which have already destroyed and continue to ravage the world today, come from a superficial use of the laws of the development of complex systems and, in particular, of individual techniques of the chaos theory.

  2. Quantum catastrophes: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znojil, Miloslav

    2012-11-01

    The bound-state spectrum of a Hamiltonian H is assumed real in a non-empty domain D of physical values of parameters. This means that for these parameters, H may be called crypto-Hermitian, i.e. made Hermitian via an ad hoc choice of the inner product in the physical Hilbert space of quantum bound states (i.e. via an ad hoc construction of the operator Θ called the metric). The name quantum catastrophe is then assigned to the N-tuple-exceptional-point crossing, i.e. to the scenario in which we leave the domain D along such a path that at the boundary of D, an N-plet of bound-state energies degenerates and, subsequently, complexifies. At any fixed N ⩾ 2, this process is simulated via an N × N benchmark effective matrix Hamiltonian H. It is being assigned such a closed-form metric which is made unique via an N-extrapolation-friendliness requirement. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

  3. Quantum catastrophes: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The bound-state spectrum of a Hamiltonian H is assumed real in a non-empty domain D of physical values of parameters. This means that for these parameters, H may be called crypto-Hermitian, i.e. made Hermitian via an ad hoc choice of the inner product in the physical Hilbert space of quantum bound states (i.e. via an ad hoc construction of the operator Θ called the metric). The name quantum catastrophe is then assigned to the N-tuple-exceptional-point crossing, i.e. to the scenario in which we leave the domain D along such a path that at the boundary of D, an N-plet of bound-state energies degenerates and, subsequently, complexifies. At any fixed N ⩾ 2, this process is simulated via an N × N benchmark effective matrix Hamiltonian H. It is being assigned such a closed-form metric which is made unique via an N-extrapolation-friendliness requirement. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’. (paper)

  4. A story of transformation following catastrophic loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rateau, Margaret R

    2010-08-01

    The emotional impact following catastrophic loss is a highly individualized and personal experience. Such an experience may be life transforming and can significantly influence the course of one's emotional recovery. Through the gathering of story, a clearer understanding of the transformational experience may lead to more appropriate mental health support for those most in need. The purposes of this article are to share the author's 4-year autobiographical story following catastrophic loss from a house explosion and fire, to discuss the transpersonal perspective on transformation, and to offer the use of story for practice and research applications for persons experiencing catastrophic loss. PMID:20650371

  5. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0∘ to 22∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  6. Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

    OpenAIRE

    Ayse Kart

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ) measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992). In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot as...

  7. An illustrative 'plug & play' catastrophe model for groundwater flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Hillier, John; Royse, Kate; Lee, Tzu-Fung; O'Niel, Jullian; Kingdon, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    Economic losses from natural catastrophes are substantial; e.g., US130 billion in 2010. 'Catastrophe models' are stochastic event-set based models that simulate these risks and underpin their assessment in the insurance industry. Most catastrophe models are proprietary 'black boxes', which limit the level of user interaction, but new regulations (Solvency II) require firms to understand better the assumptions upon which the calculations ultimately rest. Part of this greater transparency requires constraining where uncertainty originates, perhaps by interchanging components provided by rival model vendors in 'plug and play' catastrophe models. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical, accessible way in which this may be made possible. Specifically to do this the first, illustrative 'plug and play' model was created efficiently and effectively using OpenMI, a free 'open-source' model linking standard. In about 100 man-hours climate, groundwater flow, vulnerability, exposure and loss components were linked to output financial losses, i.e., occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curves. Groundwater flooding near Marlborough (UK) is used for this proof of concept. Losses from this example dataset are small, about £3.8 million for a 33 yr OEP, but groundwater is an important compounding factor in UK flooding and this is the first, albeit rudimentary, attempt to probabilistically model loss for this hazard. Selected components are swopped, and losses calculated to show how insights into the origin of uncertainty can be gained. Crucially, OpenMI has the future potential to operate online and shield valuable data within components whilst allowing them to be swopped. So, it has the potential to underpin a secure, open-source, practical framework of use to the insurance industry.

  8. Catastrophes in Scale-Free Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; WANG Bing-Hong

    2005-01-01

    @@ An alternative model about cascading occurrences caused by perturbation is established to search the mechanism because catastrophes in networks occur. We investigate the avalanche dynamics of our model on two-dimensional Euclidean lattices and scale-free networks and find that the avalanche dynamic behaviour is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. The simulation results show that the catastrophes occur much more frequently in scale-free networks than those in Euclidean lattices, and the greatest catastrophe in scale-free networks is much more serious than that in Euclidean lattices. Furthermore, we have studied how to reduce the catastrophes'degree, and have schemed out an effective strategy, called the targeted safeguard strategy for scale-free networks.

  9. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... data. A constant nonzero catastrophe rare, identical for both microtubule ends, is predicted at large growth rates. The delay time for dilution-induced catastrophes is stochastic with a simple distribution that fits the experimental one and, like the experimental one, does not depend on the rate of...... unified description of several apparently contradictory experimental data. Experimental results for the catastrophe rate at different concentrations of magnesium ions and of microtubule associated proteins are discussed in terms of the model. Feasible experiments are suggested that can provide decisive...

  10. Catastrophic eruptions of the directed-blast type at Mount St. Helens, bezymianny and Shiveluch volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogoyavlenskaya, G.E.; Braitseva, O.A.; Melekestsev, I.V.; Kiriyanov, V. Yu; Dan, Miller C.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes catastrophic eruptions of Mount St. Helens (1980), Bezymianny (1955-1956), and Shiveluch (1964) volcanoes. A detailed description of eruption stages and their products, as well as the quantitative characteristics of the eruptive process are given. The eruptions under study belong to the directed-blast type. This type is characterized by the catastrophic character of the climatic stage during which a directed blast, accompanied by edifice destruction, the profound ejection of juvenile pyroclastics and the formation of pyroclastic flows, occur. The climatic stage of all three eruptions has similar characteristics, such as duration, kinetic energy of blast (1017-1018 J), the initial velocity of debris ejection, morphology and size of newly-formed craters. But there are also certain differences. At Mount St. Helens the directed blast was preceeded by failure of the edifice and these events produced separable deposits, namely debris avalanche and directed blast deposits which are composed of different materials and have different volumes, thickness and distribution. At Bezymianny, failure did not precede the blast and the whole mass of debris of the old edifice was outburst only by blast. The resulting deposits, represented by the directed blast agglomerate and sand facies, have characteristics of both the debris avalanche and the blast deposit at Mount St. Helens. At Shiveluch directed-blast deposits are represented only by the directed-blast agglomerate; the directed-blast sand facies, or blast proper, seen at Mount St. Helens is absent. During the period of Plinian activity, the total volumes of juvenile material erupted at Mount St. Helens and at Besymianny were roughly comparable and exceeded the volume of juvenile material erupted at Shiveluch, However, the volume of pyroclastic-flow deposits erupted at Mount St. Helens was much less. The heat energy of all three eruptions is comparable: 1.3 ?? 1018, 3.8-4.8 ?? 1018 and 1 ?? 1017 J for

  11. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Liu; Jihong Xiao; Lizhao Yan; Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property C...

  12. Mindfulness, Acceptance and Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain

    OpenAIRE

    de Boer, Maaike J.; Steinhagen, Hannemike E.; Versteegen, Gerbrig J.; Struys, Michel M.R.F.; Sanderman, Robbert

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chr...

  13. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    OpenAIRE

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P J; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform disorders and chronic fatigue syndrome, pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs were found to be related to perceived disability and prognosis. Furthermore, it has been argued with respect to whiplash t...

  14. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  15. Catastrophe risk sharing and public-private partnerships : From natural disasters to terrorism

    OpenAIRE

    De Marcelis-Warin, Nathalie; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2003-01-01

    Recent extreme events showed how insurers, deprived of reinsurance capacity at an affordable price, could decide to stop covering for specific extreme events and rapidly let people and firms uncovered. Developing public-private partnerships could constitute one of the most appealing ways to solve the problem of financing the consequences of those extremes events by taking advantage of strengths of both sectors. Catastrophic risks present, however, very specific characteristics which really ch...

  16. 22 CFR 71.7 - Reports on catastrophes abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reports on catastrophes abroad. 71.7 Section 71... catastrophes abroad. Whenever a great catastrophe occurs abroad, either on land or on sea, the officer within whose district the catastrophe takes place or into whose district the survivors are brought shall...

  17. Visualization of the Impact of the Catastrophic Flooding Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Moreri, K. K.;

    maps. This can greatly help decision makers with the emergency measures and mitigation in most of the cases. In this article, we present a case study about mapping of flood risks due to a dam burst showing risk maps of flood hazards and available emergency facilities and their significance for risk...

  18. Visualization of the Impact of the Catastrophic Flooding Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Moreri, K. K.;

    The use of advanced tools for computation and modelling of natural hazards can be combined with a GIS that has the capability of decision support and advanced visualization to produce models, that will represent the risks of natural hazards and man-made disasters in the form of risk maps, where the...... maps. This can greatly help decision makers with the emergency measures and mitigation in most of the cases. In this article, we present a case study about mapping of flood risks due to a dam burst showing risk maps of flood hazards and available emergency facilities and their significance for risk...

  19. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single......-event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...... understanding of catastrophic failure of IGBTs, the state-of-the-art research on their failure behaviors and failure mechanisms is presented in this paper. Moreover, various fault-tolerant design methods, to prevent converter level malfunctions in the event of IGBT failure, are also reviewed....

  20. Research on catastrophe control in 1-D system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Yao; TANG Li-ping; LI Xue-lian

    2003-01-01

    A new method of catastrophe control is described in one dimension nonlinear system. Catastrophe control based on catastrophe theory is a brand new area for control theory. A certain catastrophe is created at a desired location by appropriate control, which has preferred properties. Washout filter is presented and applied to preserve the original equilibrium of a system. Washout filter aided dynamic feedback controller is developed for the creation of catastrophe, and an example is given to illustrate the process. Catastrophe control may provide a new way of designing warning signals of impending collapse or catastrophe for monitoring and control purposes.

  1. Pricing for Catastrophe Bonds Based on Expected-value Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the catastrophes cannot be avoided and result in huge economic losses, therefore the compensation issue for catastrophe losses become an important research topic. Catastrophe bonds can effectively disperse the catastrophe risks which mainly undertaken by the government and the insurance companies currently and focus on capital more effectively in broad capital market, therefore to be an ideal catastrophe securities product. This study adopts Expectancy Theory to supplement and improve the pricing of catastrophe bonds based on Value Theory. A model of expected utility is established to determine the conditions of the expected revenue R of catastrophe bonds. The pricing model of the value function is used to get the psychological value of R,U (R-R‾, for catastrophe bonds. Finally, the psychological value is improved by the value according to expected utility and this can more accurately evaluate catastrophe bonds at a reasonable price. This research can provide decision-making for the pricing of catastrophe bonds.

  2. Study on the safety during transport of radioactive materials. Pt. 4. Events during transport. Final report work package 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results from a data collection and an evaluation of the safety significance of events in the transportation of radioactive material by all modes on public routes in Germany. Systems for reporting and evaluation of the safety significance of events encountered in the transport of radioactive material are a central element in monitoring and judging the adequacy and effectiveness of the transport regulations and their underlying safety philosophy, this allows for revision by experience feedback (lessons learned). The nationwide survey performed covering the period from the mid 1990s through 2013 identified and analysed a total of 670 transport events varying in type and severity. The vast majority of recorded transport events relate to minor deviations from the provisions of the transport regulations (e.g. improper markings and error in transport documents) or inappropriate practices and operational procedures resulting in material damage of packages and equipment such as handling incidents. Severe traffic accidents and fires represented only a small fraction (ca. 3 percent) of the recorded transport events. Four transport events were identified in the reporting period to have given rise to environmental radioactive releases. Three transport events have reportedly resulted in minor radiation exposures to the transport personnel; in one case an exposure in excess of the statutory annual dose limit for the public seems possible. Based on the EVTRAM scale, with seven significance levels, the broad majority of transport events has been classified as ''non-incidents'' (Level 0) and ''events without affecting the safety functions of the package'' (Level 1). On the INES scale most transport events would be classified as events with ''no safety significance'' (Below Scale/Level 0). The survey results show no serious deficiencies in the transport of radioactive material, supporting the

  3. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  4. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kron

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

  5. Downward Catastrophe of Solar Magnetic Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-07-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  6. The race between cooperation and catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If a nuclear weapon were detonated in London, or in any of the world's major cities, it would change our world forever. Beyond the horror and the immediate death, and the lives that would be shortened by radioactive fallout, the casualties could also include civil liberties, privacy, world confidence and the global economy. With so much at stake, our citizens have every reason to ask: 'Are we doing all we can to prevent a nuclear attack?' My emphatic answer is 'No, we are not.' We have, however, taken some important steps, including: - The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction programme, working since 1991 to secure and destroy weapons and material in the former Soviet Union. This programme helped Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus get rid of all their nuclear weapons, a historic achievement. - The G8 commitment launched three years ago to create and fund the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. - The recently launched US-Russian Global Threat Reduction Initiative to remove and secure high enriched uranium from research facilities around the globe. - The IAEA Nuclear Security Fund, launched to help Member States strengthen the security of nuclear material worldwide. - The commitment by Libya to give up its nuclear weapons programme following skilful diplomacy led by the United Kingdom and the United States of America, with important oversight by the IAEA. - The recent Bush-Putin summit, in which the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the USA each made a personal commitment to enhance and accelerate efforts to secure nuclear weapons and nuclear material worldwide. These are all indispensable steps for global security, but we have miles to go before we sleep. We must remove roadblocks, we must provide more resources, we must convert pledges to programmes and words to deeds. We must develop a global partnership against catastrophic terrorism that is effective, focused and truly global. This includes

  7. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  8. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    By definition, an extreme event is rare one in a series of kindred phenomena. Usually (e.g. in Geophysics), it implies investigating a small sample of case-histories with a help of delicate statistical methods and data of different quality, collected in various conditions. Many extreme events are clustered (far from independent) and follow fractal or some other "strange" distribution (far from uniform). Evidently, such an "unusual" situation complicates search and definition of reliable precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. Making forecast/prediction claims reliable and quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" forecast/prediction outcomes, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous test of the candidate method. The set of errors ("success/failure" scores and space-time measure of alarms) and other information obtained in such a control test supplies us with data necessary to judge the candidate's potential as a forecast/prediction tool and, eventually, to find its improvements. This is to be done first in comparison against random guessing, which results confidence (measured in terms of statistical significance). Note that an application of the forecast/prediction tools could be very different in cases of different natural hazards, costs and benefits that determine risks, and, therefore, requires determination of different optimal strategies minimizing reliable estimates of realistic levels of accepted losses. In their turn case specific costs and benefits may suggest a modification of the forecast/prediction tools for a more adequate "optimal" application. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to the state-of-the-art understanding of the complexity and non-linear dynamics of the Earth as a Physical System and pattern recognition approaches applied to available geophysical evidences, specifically, when intending to predict

  9. Inconceivable events in handling material in a heavy mechanical engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report accounts for an exploratory project concerning so-called inconceivable events in a manufacturing process. The study was performed at a medium-sized mechanical engineering company manufacturing heavy welded constructions with high demands on reliability and safety. On the basis of experience gained in the present study the main study shall deal with inconceivable events during the manufacture of welded nuclear pressure vessels. First, a description is given of the background and conditions of the project. On this follows a technical description of the studied process, and an account is given of observations and results of interviews at the company as well. In the light of this, an attempt to find a pattern of inconceivable events was done, and a model for analysis of rare events was developed. By means of this model and earlier described events, causes of unpredicted or unexpected events are discussed. Finally the methodology applied in the study is accounted for and discussed

  10. Catastrophic disruption of asteriods and satellites; Proceedings of the International Workshop, Pisa, Italy, July 30-August 2, 1985

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, D. R. (Editor); Farinella, P. (Editor); Paolicchi, P. (Editor); Zappala, V. (Editor)

    1986-01-01

    Theoretical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the violent disruption of asteroids or planetary satellites are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics examined include acceleration techniques and results of experiments simulating catastrophic fragmentation events; laboratory simulations of catastrophic impact; scaling laws for the catastrophic collisions of asteroids; asteroid collisional history, the origin of the Hirayama families, and disruption of small satellites; and the implications of the inferred compositions of a steroids for their collisional evolution. Diagrams, graphs, tables, and a summary of the discussion at the workshop are provided.

  11. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  12. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  13. Material differences of auditory source retrieval:Evidence from event-related potential studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    NIE AiQing; GUO ChunYan; SHEN MoWei

    2008-01-01

    Two event-related potential experiments were conducted to investigate the temporal and the spatial distributions of the old/new effects for the item recognition task and the auditory source retrieval task using picture and Chinese character as stimuli respectively. Stimuli were presented on the center of the screen with their names read out either by female or by male voice simultaneously during the study phase and then two testa were performed separately. One test task was to differentiate the old items from the new ones, and the other task was to judge the items read out by a certain voice during the study phase as targets and other ones as non-targets. The results showed that the old/new effect of the auditory source retrieval task was more sustained over time than that of the item recognition task in both experiments, and the spatial distribution of the former effect was wider than that of the latter one. Both experiments recorded reliable old/new effect over the prefrontal cortex during the source retrieval task. However, there existed some differences of the old/new effect for the auditory source retrieval task between picture and Chinese character, and LORETA source analysis indicated that the differ-ences might be rooted in the temporal lobe. These findings demonstrate that the relevancy of the old/new effects between the item recognition task and the auditory source retrieval task supports the dual-process model; the spatial and the temporal distributions of the old/new effect elicited by the auditory source retrieval task are regulated by both the feature of the experimental material and the perceptual attribute of the voice.

  14. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  15. Analysis of Environmental Contamination resulting from Catastrophic Incidents: Part two: Building Laboratory Capability by Selecting and Developing Analytical Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples with analytically diverse types including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface resid...

  16. Traces of a cosmic catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuianov, V. A.

    1982-03-01

    It is suggested that the ecological crisis which led to the extinction of many animal species approximately 65-million years ago may have been caused by a cosmic phenomenon, the fall of a giant meteorite (approximately 10 km in diameter). The fall of such a meteorite would have released a vast amount of dust into the atmosphere, leading to radical climatic changes and the extinction of the aforementioned species. The so-called iridium anomaly is cited as possible evidence of such an event.

  17. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun;

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...

  18. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    .... See the Notice related to 7 CFR part 3015, subpart V, published at 48 FR 29115, June 24, 1983... the Federal Register at 76 FR 50929-50931. The public was afforded 60 days to submit written comments... Federal Crop Insurance Corporation 7 CFR Part 402 RIN 0563-AC31 Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  19. A psychotherapy model for treating refugee children caught in the midst of catastrophic situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothe, Eugenio M

    2008-01-01

    A psychotherapy model for treating child and adolescent refugees caught in the midst of catastrophic situations is proposed. Empirical studies of the peri-traumatic period, comprised between the moment of departure and up to the moment of arrival of the refugees to the sheltering country, are scarce and difficult to complete. A review of the literature reveals that negative, long term mental health outcomes in these populations are related to autonomic dysregulation and impaired narratives of the events, which result from exposure to overwhelming stress. The author combines case material from his own clinical experience treating Cuban children and adolescents inside refugee camps, with the available literature, in order to design the model. The role of the therapist is threefold and involves: (1) intervening to decrease hyperarousal and protect the refugee's neuroendocrine integrity, (2) helping the patient construct a cohesive narrative of the events during the peri-traumatic period and, (3) becoming an advocate for the refugee children and their families, helping to empower them so they can attain mastery and control over the forces that threaten to overwhelm their coping capacities. This model addresses a neglected area of refugee studies: treatment interventions during the peri-traumatic period. It attempts to bridge the empirical research gap that exists, due to the inherent difficulties of studying refugee populations "in the field." This model could potentially be extrapolated to treat other similar populations. PMID:19113958

  20. INCORPORATING CATASTROPHES INTO INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT: SCIENCE, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes,...

  1. Event tree analysis of accidents during transport of radioactive materials in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Event Tree Method is one of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment Method. It introduces the accident scenario and the results of countermeasures. Therefore, it is effective in determining latent accident scenarios in the transfer. In this report the Event Tree Method is used to study the tunnel fire and its effects are evaluated. And this is the first trail of our Probabilistic Safety Assessment. The Event Tree for determining the early conditions when a car engine catches fire in a tunnel is examined. There are fire extinguishers, tunnel equipments for fire-fighting, fire stations and the heat-resisting property of the container for protecting from the fire. The protection level against the over 800degC-30min. fire accident is 88.3 %. (J.P.N.)

  2. Recent events in NPPs and incident reporting system (IRS) activity. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IAEA convened the 1996 Joint Meeting to Exchange Information on Recent Events in Nuclear Power Plants and the Technical Committee-Annual Meeting of the Incident Reporting System (IRS) national co-ordinators, organized jointly with the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the OECD in Paris, France from 22-26 April 1996. These consecutive meetings took place at the OECD Headquarters, 2 rue Andre Pascal. The main objective of the first meeting (22-24 April 1996) was to exchange and discuss information on recent events which occurred in NPPs. The second meeting (25-26 April 1996) was devoted to the IAEA and NEA activity in the framework of the IRS. The main issues of the programme at the meetings were as follows: in-depth discussion on NPP recent events, presented by the participants; panel discussion on operational safety experience issues identified by the participants; IAEA and NEA activities on IRS subjects in 1995-1996 and plans for the future; issues from the inter-agency's IRS Advisory Committee. Annexes I and II provide more information on the programme at the meetings. A list of participants is given in Annex III (50 participants from 22 countries and 3 international organization). Annexes IV and V provide information on national presentations on recent events. Figs, tabs

  3. CATASTROPHE FRACTURE OF THIN-WALL PRESSURE TUBES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏德敏; 杨桂通

    2002-01-01

    Catastrophe theory was used to investigate the fracture behavior of thin-wall cylindrical tubes subjected to nternal explosive pressure. Based on the energy theory and catastrophe theory, a cusp catastrophe model for the fracture was established, and a critical condition associated with the model is given.

  4. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M V [H H Wills Physics Laboratory, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Howls, C J [School of Mathematics, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

    2010-09-17

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X{sub 9} diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  5. Material Encounters and Media Events: What Kind of Mathematics Can a Body Do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    This paper contributes to research on the material dimensions of teaching and learning mathematics, arguing that perception is not sensory integration or synthesis of multi-modal information, but rather a speculative investment in specific material encounters. This approach entails sociopolitical consequences for how we work with dis/ability in…

  6. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  7. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  8. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  9. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  10. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund M Hart

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp. as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our

  11. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    An effective theory is formulated for the dynamics of the guanosine triphosphate (GTP) cap believed to stabilize growing microtubules. The theory provides a ''coarse-grained'' description of the cap's dynamics. ''Microscopic'' details, such as the microtubule lattice structure and the fate of its...... data. A constant nonzero catastrophe rare, identical for both microtubule ends, is predicted at large growth rates. The delay time for dilution-induced catastrophes is stochastic with a simple distribution that fits the experimental one and, like the experimental one, does not depend on the rate of....... A recent experimental result for the size of the minimal cap that can stabilize a microtubule is shown to agree with the result predicted by the cap model, after its parameters have been extracted from previous experimental results. Thus the effective theory and cap model presented here provide a...

  12. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  13. Catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Dorjdagva, Javkhlanbayar; Batbaatar, Enkhjargal; Svensson, Mikael; Dorjsuren, Bayarsaikhan; Kauhanen, Jussi

    2016-01-01

    Background The social health insurance coverage is relatively high in Mongolia; however, escalation of out-of-pocket payments for health care, which reached 41 % of the total health expenditure in 2011, is a policy concern. The aim of this study is to analyse the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures and to measure the rate of impoverishment from health care payments under the social health insurance scheme in Mongolia. Methods We used the data from the Household Socio-Economic Survey...

  14. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    OpenAIRE

    Erickcek, Adrienne L.; Barnaby, Neil; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic cons...

  15. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  16. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  17. Requiem for analytical psychology: a reflection on Jung's (anti)catastrophic psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Marco Heleno

    2014-02-01

    This article is an interpretation of analytical psychology in the light of the catastrophic vision and dreams that Jung had in 1913 and 1914. It is shown how the guiding spirit of Jung's psychological project is to be found in that psychic material. Then it is proposed that the completion of the symbolic catastrophe displayed in Jung's last vision (1961) points to the end of the psychological foundations upon which analytical psychology is built, and thus to its cultural obsolescence, extensive to any psychology grounded in Jung's notion of 'soul'. PMID:24467353

  18. Paleomagnetic study of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladysheva, O. G.; Popov, V. V.

    2016-03-01

    The Tunguska catastrophe occurred in the area of the East Siberian magnetic anomaly on June 30, 1908. The epicenter of the explosive destruction of the Tunguska cosmic body (TCB) was above the central neck of a paleovolcano (Mt. Stoikovich). According to the paleomagnetic data available, the bedrocks on the top of Mt. Stoikovich carry remanent magnetization, which is substantially higher than that in rocks from neighboring mountains. Analysis of the results of paleomagnetic measurements of rock samples collected in the vicinity of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter showed that the destruction of the cosmic body was accompanied by the formation of multidirectional magnetic fields, which provide disturbances spreading over a distance of 25 km from the epicenter. The chaotic distribution pattern of magnetization vectors measured in the soil in the vicinity of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter confirms the previously expressed assumption that destruction of the TCB was accompanied with multiple discharges. According to this, we can conclude that the matter of the Tunguska cosmic body was dispersed around the epicenter in a zone approximately 25 km in diameter.

  19. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  20. Downward catastrophe of solar magnetic flux ropes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Quanhao; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5D time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free. The system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Secondly, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by a jump of a solution from the u...

  1. Reassessing Catastrophic Infill of the Pokhara Valley, Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Adhikari, Basantha; Korup, Oliver

    2014-05-01

    The Pokhara valley, home to Nepal's second largest city and a major tourist attraction (28°15'N, 83°58'E), is covered by 4-5 km3 and 50-100 m thick intramontane fan deposits that resulted from massive aggradation of the Seti Khola, a river draining the Annapurna Massif of the Greater Himalaya. Poorly sorted, gravelly fluvial facies intercalated with debris-flow and mud-flow facies known as the Pokhara Gravels attest to highly energetic transport conditions during one or several catastrophic flow events. In May 2012, a devastative flash flood/debris flow in the Seti Khola rekindled interest in the formation processes and timing of the Pokhara Gravels as they may provide constraints on the magnitudes and frequencies of similar past events. Interpretations of previous sedimentological work and radiocarbon dating (Yamanaka, 1982; Fort, 1987) culminated in the belief that the Pokhara Gravels were catastrophically emplaced only 500 to 1000 years ago, although the exact nature, timing, and triggers of the purported event(s) remain obscure. Specifically, it remains debated whether the Pokhara Gravels were deposited instantaneously, possibly within less than a year, or whether sedimentation was more protracted over perhaps decades to millennia. We present new geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, and radiocarbon data and re-assess a potential catastrophic infill of the Pokhara Valley during one or several high-magnitude events. Support for this scenario is given by laterally continuous long-runout (~40 km) debris-flow deposits topped by large (i.e. up to >11-m) boulders, a distinctly calcareous lithology diagnostic of a small Greater Himalayan source area tens of kilometres upstream, and by historical anecdotes of a large flood that destroyed an earlier settlement in the area. However, we show that dated outcrops of fine-grained sediments in tributaries blocked by the Pokhara Gravels yield asynchronous ages. Although our radiocarbon dates are consistent with

  2. Technical Meeting on Impact of Fukushima Event on Current and Future Fast Reactor Designs. Working Material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The overall purpose of the Technical Meeting was to recognize and analyse the implications of the accident occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station on current and future fast neutron systems design and operation. The aim was to provide a global forum for discussing the principal lessons learned from this event, and thus to review safety principles and characteristics of existing and future fast neutron concepts, especially in relation with extreme natural events which potentially may lead to severe accident scenarios. The participants also presented and discussed innovative technical solutions, design features and countermeasures for design extension conditions - including earthquakes, tsunami and other extreme natural hazards - which can enhance the safety level of existing and future fast neutron systems. Furthermore, the meeting gave the opportunity to present advanced methods for the evaluation of the robustness of plants against design extension conditions. Another important goal of this TM was to discuss how to harmonize safety approaches and goals for next generation’s fast reactors. Finally, the meeting was intended to identify areas where further research and development in nuclear safety, technology and engineering in the light of the Fukushima accident are needed. In the frame of the implementation of its Nuclear Safety Action Plan endorsed by all Member States, the IAEA will consider these areas as potential technical topics for new Coordinated Research Projects, to be launched in the near future

  3. Characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and determination of deposition hazard area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Chia-Ming; Weng, Meng-Chia

    2013-04-01

    During extreme rainfall, deep-seated catastrophic landslide is a frequent mishap in main stream and tributaries of Taiwan. Reviewing the histories of Taiwan landslide events, as a large and deep-seated rock/soil mass of simultaneous movements in a valley, it might cause serious disasters. Reviewing the present literatures, there are morphological indications that the potential deep-seated catastrophic landslide can be track and find. Especially, the slate slope is influenced by weathering and gravitation for a long time, it become weak and it may cause the sliding slope creep and folding rock that will become the sliding surface of deep-seated catastrophic landslide. But analysis deep-seated catastrophic landslides for disaster preparedness and response planning are sometimes inadequate due to the complexity of such slopes. Whereas, this study mainly focus on deep-seated catastrophic landslide in valley. The study area has chosen Xiandushan Mountain, the 115.9 k of Suhua highway, and Zhuoshui River which to discuss the characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and deposition hazard area. Base on the past events of deep-seated catastrophic landslide, the geological investigation, morphological analysis, and remote sensing technology will helpful to induce the geological characteristics and the morphological evolution. Besides, the deep-seated catastrophic landslide events will simplify to set up the physical modeling, its interpret the variation conditions to influence the characteristics, movement process, and deposition hazard area for deep-seated catastrophic landslide. The results of physical modeling were compared with those produced by numerical analysis (Application of discrete element method by PFC3D program) so that the correctness of the numerical simulation could be justified. Subsequently, calibrated numerical methods adopted in the small-scale model were used to simulate the full-scale model. The simulation

  4. Introducing School Children in Nigeria to SPACE Technology As a Tool for Mitigation of National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alabi, O.

    2014-12-01

    The zonal workshops organized by the space education outreach unit of the African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education utilized recent catastrophic events in Nigeria to attract pre-collegiate youths to space science and technology (SST). About 200 school children, aged between 10 and 18 years participated in the program which was coordinated at 2 different geopolitical zones in Nigeria in 2014. The 2-day event was packed with a lot of fun-filled, hands-on educational activities demonstrating the use of outer space to address prevailing socio-economic problems in the nation. The students were introduced to the Nigerian Earth Observation Satellites, and learned why these satellites cannot be used to track the school girls kidnapped by the terrorist group in the northern part of the country. They were also introduced to other types of satellites and participated in activities on the applications of TRMM satellite data to monitor flood events in Nigeria. The Global Positioning System (GPS) technology was introduced as a navigational tool to curb criminal activities in the country and participants used the hand-held GPS unit for geocaching. The program culminated in the launching of space clubs in all the participating schools and a teacher from each school received resource materials on DVD to nurture the space club. To assess the impact of the workshop on the knowledge level of the participants in space science, quiz competitions were administered and the average score of the students was above 70%. The enthusiasm displayed by the students, coupled with the brilliant performance in the evaluation tests, indicated that this method of informal education, that linked science to the alleviation of national disasters is viable, not only for stimulating the interest of Nigerian pre-collegiate youths in SST, but also to inspire the young learners and develop their interest in the Sciences, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).

  5. Material-dependent and material-independent selection processes in the frontal and parietal lobes: an event-related fMRI investigation of response competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazeltine, Eliot; Bunge, Silvia A.; Scanlon, Michael D.; Gabrieli, John D E.

    2003-01-01

    The present study used the flanker task [Percept. Psychophys. 16 (1974) 143] to identify neural structures that support response selection processes, and to determine which of these structures respond differently depending on the type of stimulus material associated with the response. Participants performed two versions of the flanker task while undergoing event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Both versions of the task required participants to respond to a central stimulus regardless of the responses associated with simultaneously presented flanking stimuli, but one used colored circle stimuli and the other used letter stimuli. Competition-related activation was identified by comparing Incongruent trials, in which the flanker stimuli indicated a different response than the central stimulus, to Neutral stimuli, in which the flanker stimuli indicated no response. A region within the right inferior frontal gyrus exhibited significantly more competition-related activation for the color stimuli, whereas regions within the middle frontal gyri of both hemispheres exhibited more competition-related activation for the letter stimuli. The border of the right middle frontal and inferior frontal gyri and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) were significantly activated by competition for both types of stimulus materials. Posterior foci demonstrated a similar pattern: left inferior parietal cortex showed greater competition-related activation for the letters, whereas right parietal cortex was significantly activated by competition for both materials. These findings indicate that the resolution of response competition invokes both material-dependent and material-independent processes.

  6. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Sampson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and re-insurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge corrected rainfall radar, meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim and a satellite rainfall product (CMORPH. Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find these loss estimates to be highly sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving observational datasets, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

  7. Radiological emergencies due to postulated events of melted radioactive material mixed in steel reaching public domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    National level response mechanism is developed at emergency response centres of DAE (DAE-ERCs) at 22 different locations spread all over the country and National Disaster Response Forces with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). ERCs are equipped with radiation monitors, radionuclide identifinders, Personnel Radiation Dosimeters (PRD) with monitoring capabilities of the order of tens of nGy/h (μR/hr) above the radiation background at any suspected locations. Even if small amounts of radioactive material is smuggled and brought in some other form into public domain, ERCs are capable to detect, identify and segregate the radioactive material from any inactive scrap. DAE-ERCs have demonstrated their capability in source search, detection, identification and recovery during the radiological emergency at Mayapuri, New Delhi

  8. Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebora, N.; Gabellani, S.; Rudari, R.; Silvestro, F.; Parodi, A.; Gochis, D.

    2012-12-01

    On November 4th, 2011, the city of Genoa, Italy, located between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains, was witness to a catastrophic flash flood. About 500 millimeters of rain -a third of the average annual rainfall- fell in approximately six hours. The waters that flooded the town center equated to an approximately 300 year flood event. Six people perished, commercial property was inundated, cars were swept away and many trees were uprooted. We analyze the performance of cloud-permitting (1 km) model simulations of the convective system responsible for this extreme event using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3) with its associated hydrological modeling extension ('WRF-Hydro') focusing on the utility of model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood prediction. WRF model skill is assessed with respect to specification of cloud microphysics, convection and land surface physics parameterizations. The QPF results strongly suggest an event dominated by comparatively shallow warm rain processes where local maxima were the product of both synoptic scale dynamics and orographic enhancement over the Apennine mountain range. Land and sea surface temperature forcing was assess but found to be secondary in importance. Streamflow prediction skill from the fully coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system was compared against observations and against offline or 'uncoupled' hydrological model runs, driven by several quantitative precipitation estimate (QPEs) products. The results illustrate the significant sensitivity of the predicted (simulated) streamflow event to QPF (QPE) skill and emphasize the importance of taking into account many factors and sources of error in the hydrometeorological prediction chain. The end product of this study is a comprehensive evaluation and justification for optimal configurations of the WRF-Hydro modeling system for high-impact Mediterranean flood events for use in future forecasting

  9. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Perturbative x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    The tunneling density of states exhibits anomalies (cusps, algebraic suppressions, and pseudogaps) at the Fermi energy in a wide variety of low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. We argue that in many cases these spectral anomalies are caused by an infrared catastrophe in the screening response to the sudden introduction of a new electron into the system during a tunneling event. A nonperturbative functional-integral method is introduced to account for this effect, making u...

  10. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Beyond the x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a nonperturbative method to calculate the electron propagator in low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. The method builds on our earlier work using a Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation to map the tunneling problem to the x-ray edge problem, which accounts for the infrared catastrophe caused by the sudden introduction of a new electron into a conductor during a tunneling event. Here we use a cumulant expansion to include fluctuations about this x-ray edge limit. ...

  11. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    OpenAIRE

    Kron, W.; Steuer, M.; Löw, P.; Wirtz, A

    2012-01-01

    Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of hum...

  12. Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster

    OpenAIRE

    Plyer, Allison; Bonaguro, Joy; Hodges, Ken

    2009-01-01

    After a large scale evacuation, authorities need to know the new and frequently changing population distributions in order to meet needs for housing, schools, health care, and other services. This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. The most appropriate data to estimate population i...

  13. Governing Ignorance: Emerging Catastrophic Risks—Industry Responses and Policy Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Castellano

    2010-01-01

    The growing interconnections between people, markets and networks together with the development of new technologies have increased the frequency and impact of large-scale disasters around the globe. Many of these events, defined as emerging catastrophic (or systemic) risks, have no previous record. At the same time there is a strong probability that their frequency and impact will increase in the future. This paper takes a governance perspective by assuming that policy actions should be desig...

  14. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  15. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  16. Topical study on IRS events involving foreign material intrusion in plant systems. First issue. Report of a consultants meeting. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent exchange of operational safety experience among countries, within the framework of the IRS, revealed a noticeable increase in incidents involving foreign material intrusion (FMI) in nuclear power plant systems. These incidents appeared to have safety impact, sometimes widespread, on many systems and components, including the reactor core, control rods, the secondary side, and other support systems such as the electrical, air, and water systems. Notwithstanding the economic penalties and the operational problems that can arise from the FMI, many events indicated severe component damages, challenges to safety systems and to fuel integrity. Difficulties encountered with the removal of foreign material present further challenges due to the long term effects of such material remaining in the system and interacting with either fuel cladding, with the potential of releasing fission products in coolant systems, or with the system pressure boundary with the potential for material wear and sudden failure of the pressure boundary. The FMI topic was, therefore, one of a number of topics that was recommended by the TCM in 1996 for investigation. A consultant meeting was held at the IAEA during the period 14-18 April 1997 to address this topic. Figs

  17. Reflex safety distances to be implemented in the event of a transport accident involving radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to set out the results of IRSN's assessment of the safety distances to be implemented as first response to a transport accident involving radioactive material. It details the public health criteria and criteria used for selecting the accident situations covered. It then presents the safety distances calculated for each of the adopted scenarios. As the aim of this work is to help the emergency response teams set safety perimeters, three so-called reflex distances of 100 m, 500 m and 1000 m appropriate to the accident circumstances have been identified from the calculated distances. These distances may change while the accident is being dealt with as and when more precise information becomes available. (author)

  18. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that m

  19. Catastrophizing and Parental Response to Child Symptom Complaints

    OpenAIRE

    Langer, Shelby L.; Romano, Joan M.; Levy, Rona L; Walker, Lynn S.; Whitehead, William E.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated whether catastrophic thinking about pain by children with functional abdominal pain or by their parents is associated with health outcomes in the child. Subjects were 132 parent-child dyads. Child catastrophizing predicted child depression, anxiety and functional disability. Parents’ catastrophizing cognitions about their own pain predicted self-reported protective responses to their children’s abdominal pain (responding in ways that encourage illness behavior). Protec...

  20. Mutation accumulation and the catastrophic senescence of Pacific salmon

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, T J P; Stauffer, D; Stauffer, Dietrich

    1995-01-01

    The bit-string model of biological aging is used to simulate the catastrophic senescence of Pacific Salmon. We have shown that reproduction occuring only once and at a fixed age is the only ingredient needed to explain the catastrophic senescence according the mutation accumulation theory. Several results are presented, some of them with up to 10^8 fishes, showing how the survival rates in catastrophic senescence are affected by changes in the parameters of the model.

  1. Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D.; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

  2. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

  3. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Konopelchenko, B G

    2011-01-01

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin if this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes motion of filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painlev\\'e-I equation.

  4. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of a vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin of this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes the motion of a filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically, this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically, it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve-I equation. (fast track communication)

  5. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopelchenko, B G [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita del Salento and INFN, Sezione di Lecce, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Ortenzi, G, E-mail: giovanni.ortenzi@unimib.it [Dipartimento di Matematica Pura ed Applicazioni, Universita di Milano Bicocca, 20125 Milano (Italy)

    2011-10-28

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of a vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin of this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes the motion of a filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically, this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically, it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve-I equation. (fast track communication)

  6. Catastrophic anoxia in the chesapeake bay in 1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seliger, H H; Boggs, J A; Biggley, W H

    1985-04-01

    In 1984, four climatic sequences combined to produce what may be a major anoxic catastrophe in the northern Chesapeake Bay, sufficient to severely threaten the major benthic species. These sequences are (i) the highest late-winter streamflow on record from the Susquehanna River watershed; (ii) streamflows from the Susquehanna River for the consecutive months of June, July, and August that are higher by 2 standard deviations than the respective monthly mean values measured over the last 34 years; (iii) a stationary high in August off the Atlantic Coast; and (iv) an absence of strong storm events in summer. An empirical equation is proposed for the prediction of the monthly trend of dissolved oxygen decrease in terms of a temperature-dependent subpycnoclinal respiration and a modified estuarine Richardson number. As of 23 August 1984, the summer pycnocline of the northern bay had eroded upward from its historically recorded depth below 10 meters to an abnormally shallow 5 meters, with higher stratification than in earlier years. Dissolved oxygen concentrations directly below the pycnocline decreased to zero during June, 2 months earlier than for previous wet years. At present, oxygen-deficient waters containing significant concentrations of hydrogen sulfide have penetrated into Eastern Bay and the Choptank and Potomac rivers. Because most remaining shellfish-spawning and seed-bed areas in these tributaries are located at depths between 4 and 8 meters, the continued absence of major destratifying events will prolong the present anoxic trend and may result in high benthic mortalities. PMID:17811570

  7. New bio-cleaning strategies on porous building materials affected by biodeterioration event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Federica; Diamanti, Alessia; Palleschi, Giuseppe

    2010-09-01

    In this paper, a new bio-cleaning procedure based on the glucose oxidase (GOx) has been applied on the travertine and peperino substrata to remove the biological patina (i.e., biofilm). Glucose oxidase, used as a model enzyme system, is able to produce in situ H 2O 2 (the cleaning agent having oxidizing properties) by the enzymatic reaction at room temperature. The travertine and peperino samples came from the Villa Torlonia in Rome (Italy), and an analytical diagnosis on them was performed applying several analytical techniques, such as the differential interference contrast microscopy (DIC), the optical microscope (OM), the Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and the X-ray fluorescence (XRF) that evidence the presence of biofilms on the substrata. Better results were obtained on the travertine samples in terms of the cleaning efficiency and the absence of the etching effect on the surface, eventually induced by the peroxide molecule. These results could be explained in terms of the different porosities of the two kinds of stone materials, according to the BET data. A comparative study was also performed to validate the new bio-cleaning procedure, using both traditional approaches based on saturated (NH 4) 2CO 3 solution and EDTA in buffer solution and the enzyme lipase treatments. Among all, the cleaning procedure via GOx shows the best result, probably because the enzyme controls the concentration of the H 2O 2 in situ and also retains the H 2O 2 preferentially on the surface (where the biological patina is present) depending on the porosity of the substrata. A synergistic effect, with other enzymes such as lipase and protease, combined with the biocompatibility of the enzymatic treatments, could represent a new way for a higher cleaning efficiency to apply on different stone substrata.

  8. Corporate Demand for Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Market for Catastrophe and Non-Catastrophe Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Raschky, Paul A.; Kunreuther, Howard C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper tests some existing theories developed over the past 25 years on corporate demand for insurance. Using a unique dataset of 1,809 large U.S. corporations it provides the first empirical analysis that compares corporate demand for standard property insurance and for catastrophe coverage (here, terrorism). We find that larger companies are more likely to have some catastrophe coverage. Corporate demand for catastrophe insurance is found to be more price inelastic than insurance for no...

  9. Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk. -- Highlights: •Composition of SOM significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs. •Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil largely control the transport of PAHs. •The classic enrichment theory is invalid if anthropogenic CMs are abundant in the soil. •Organic petrology analysis introduced to study the fate and transport of PAHs. -- Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil, especially black carbon, largely control the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

  10. Fragment shapes in impact experiments ranging from cratering to catastrophic disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikami, Tatsuhiro; Hagermann, Axel; Kadokawa, Tokiyuki; Yoshida, Akifumi; Shimada, Akira; Hasegawa, Sunao; Tsuchiyama, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Laboratory impact experiments have found that impact fragments tend to be elongated. Their shapes, as defined by axes a, b and c, these being the maximum dimensions of the fragment in three mutually orthogonal planes (a ⩾ b ⩾ c), are distributed around mean values of the axial ratios b/a ∼ 0.7 and c/a ∼ 0.5. This corresponds to a:b:c in the simple proportion 2:√2:1. The shape distributions of some boulders on Asteroid Eros, the small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter <200 m and rotation period <1 h), and asteroids in young families, are similar to those of laboratory fragments created in catastrophic disruptions. Catastrophic disruption is, however, a process that is different from impact cratering. In order to systematically investigate the shapes of fragments in the range from impact cratering to catastrophic disruption, impact experiments for basalt targets 5-15 cm in size were performed. A total of 28 impact experiments were carried out by firing a spherical nylon projectile (diameter 7.14 mm) perpendicularly into the target surface at velocities of 1.60-7.13 km/s. More than 12,700 fragments with b ⩾ 4 mm generated in the impact experiments were measured. We found that the mean value of c/a in each impact decreases with decreasing impact energy per unit target mass. For instance, the mean value of c/a in an impact cratering event is nearly 0.2, which is considerably smaller than c/a in a catastrophic disruption (∼0.5). The data presented here can provide important evidence to interpret the shapes of asteroids and boulders on asteroid surfaces, and can constrain current interpretations of asteroid formation. As an example, by applying our experimental results to the boulder shapes on Asteroid Itokawa's surface, we can infer that Itokawa's parent body must have experienced a catastrophic disruption.

  11. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    CERN Document Server

    Erickcek, Adrienne L; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic consequences for the chameleon during the Universe's first minutes. The chameleon couples to the trace of the stress-energy tensor, which is temporarily non-zero in a radiation-dominated universe whenever a particle species becomes non-relativistic. These "kicks" impart a significant velocity to the chameleon field, causing its effective mass to vary non-adiabatically and resulting in the copious production of quantum fluctuations. Dissipative effects strongly modify the background evolution of the chameleon field, invalidati...

  12. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  13. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the “real” world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be “tools” rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a “both–and” rather than an “either–or” approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may

  14. Determinants of Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Ramezanian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households’ payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately.Method: This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households’ expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households’ expenditure surveys was applied.Results: The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households’ socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution.Conclusion: While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness

  15. High LET radiation enhances nocodazole induced cell death in HeLa cells through mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To understand how human tumor cells respond to the combined treatment with nocodazole and high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, alterations in cell cycle, mitotic disturbances and cell death were investigated in the present study. Human cervix carcinoma HeLa cells were exposed to nocodazole for 18 h immediately followed by high LET iron ion irradiation and displayed a sequence of events leading to DNA damages, mitotic aberrations, interphase restitution and endocycle as well as cell death. A prolonged mitotic arrest more than 10 h was observed following nocodazole exposure, no matter the irradiation was present or not. The occurrence of mitotic slippage following the mitotic arrest was only drug-dependent and the irradiation did not accelerate it. The amount of polyploidy cells was increased following mitotic slippage. No detectable G2 or G1 arrest was observed in cells upon the combined treatment and the cells reentered the cell cycle still harboring unrepaired cellular damages. This premature entry caused an increase of multipolar mitotic spindles and amplification of centrosomes, which gave rise to lagging chromosomal material, failure of cytokinesis and polyploidization. These mitotic disturbances and their outcomes confirmed the incidence of mitotic catastrophe and delayed apoptotic features displayed by terminal-transferased UTP- nick end-labeling (TUNEL) method after the combined treatment. These results suggest that the addition of high-LET iron ion irradiation to nocodazole enhanced mitotic catastrophe and delayed apoptosis in HeLa cells. These might be important cell death mechanisms involved in tumor cells in response to the treatment of antimitotic drug combined with high LET radiation. (author)

  16. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Diks; J. Wang

    2016-01-01

    Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing ma

  17. Terrestrial evidence of a nuclear catastrophe in paleoindian times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A common problem at paleoindian sites in the northeastern region of North America is the recovery of radiocarbon dates that are much younger than their western counterparts, sometimes by as much as 10,000 years. Other methods like thermoluminescence, geoarchaeology, and sedimentation suggest that the dates are incorrect. Evidence has been mounting that the peopling of the Americas occurred much earlier than 12,000 bp. The discovery of tracks and micrometeorite-like particles in paleoindian artifacts across North America demonstrates they were bombarded during a cosmic event. Measurements of Uranium 235 (235U), depleted by 17-77%, and enhanced concentrations of Plutonium 239 (239Pu), from neutron capture on Uranium 238 (238U), in artifacts, associated chert types, and sediments at depth indicates that the entire prehistoric North American landscape was bombarded by thermal neutrons. Radiocarbon dating assumes that there is no substantial change in isotopic composition over time. A large thermal neutron event would convert residual Nitrogen 14 (14N) in charcoal to Carbon 14 (14C) thus resetting the radiocarbon date to a younger value and pushing back the date that paleoindians occupied the Americas by thousands of years. Analysis of data from 11 locations across North America indicates there were episodes of cosmic ray bombardments of the prehistoric landscape in Late Glacial times. Examination of the radiocarbon record suggests these events were coupled with geomagnetic excursions at 41,000, 33,000, and 12,500 bp and irradiated the landscape with massive thermal neutron fluxes of the order of approximately1015 neutrons/cm2. These data provide a clear body of terrestrial evidence supporting either one of two longstanding hypotheses for catastrophe in paleoindian times: (1) a giant solar flare during a geomagnetic excursion as explored by Wolfendale and Zook, and (2) a supernova shockwave as forwarded by Brackenridge, Clarke, and Dar. The evidence is reviewed, and

  18. Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in the collision sport athlete, part 2: principles of emergency care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Rahul; Palumbo, Mark A; Fadale, Paul D

    2004-01-01

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries can lead to devastating consequences for the collision athlete. Improved understanding of these injuries can lead to identification of risk factors, early diagnosis, and effective on-field management. This article is the second in a 2-part series. The first part, published in the June 2004 issue, reviewed the current concepts regarding the epidemiology, functional anatomy, and diagnostic considerations relevant to cervical spine trauma in collision sports. In this article, the principles of on-field emergency care of the spine-injured athlete are reviewed. The authors discuss the need for effective pre-event planning, on-field evaluation and management of cervical spine injuries, and the transition of care from the playing field to the emergency room. The protocol for equipment removal, when necessary, is also reviewed. An organized, rapid approach to the management of cervical spine-injured collision athletes can help to optimize the outcomes of these catastrophic injuries. PMID:15494346

  19. Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

  20. Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Qi-hua; CAO Jian-jun

    2007-01-01

    Based on the theory of grey system, established GM (1, 1) grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing (not the volume of water inflowing). After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in -400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis,it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

  1. Monte-Carlo simulation for the effects of composite materials on single event effects of sub-100 nm semi-conductor devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Monte-Carlo simulation code SEALER was developed for neutron-induced single event upset of semiconductor devices at the ground level, in which composite materials effects are fully simulated. Any size and structures of 8 composite material such as Si, SiO2, Si3N4, Ta2O5, WSi2, Cu, Al, TiN can be included for analyses of nuclear spallation reactions and charge collection to storage nodes. Some preliminary implications of composite material effects are demonstrated including an apparent contribution of elastic scattering to single event upset in lower energy region as low as 2 MeV or even lower. (author)

  2. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  3. Evaluation of catastrophic failure risk in pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the Nordic countries a four-year research programme in the area of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics was initiated in 1985. Seven laboratories from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are participating in the programme. The main technical objective of the programme is to clarify how catastrophic fracture can be prevented in pressure vessels and piping by using the leak-before-break concept. The major experimental effort of the programme is destructive pressurization of a large size pressure vessel up to rupture. The vessel has dimensions similar to a nuclear reactor pressure vessel and it has been in operation for 20 years in a Finnish oil refinery plant. The materials characterization of the vessel has been partially carried out within an extensive Nordic round-robin programme. Two pressure tests have been carried out. In both tests an artificial sharp axial surface flaw was made on the inner wall of the vessel. The experimental details of the last test including repair welding of the vessel, flaw prepration, instrumentation and material characterization are described in this report. The fracture behaviour as well as experimental results are reported. The failure pressure is compared to estimates of the analytical pre-test calculations

  4. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  5. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N;

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...

  6. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjøgx, Heidi; Zachariae, Robert; Pfeiffer-Jensen, Mogens; Kasch, Helge; Svensson, Peter; Jensen, Troels S.; Vase, Lene

    2014-01-01

    Background: Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress, and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method: A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Beck Depression Inventory, and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency. Results: In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed. Conclusions: This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations. PMID:25646089

  7. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi eKjøgx

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students and a clinical (223 pain patients sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed.Conclusions This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations.

  8. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.)

  9. Natural Disasters and Man-Made Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonergan, David

    2011-01-01

    This article categorizes and discusses the kinds of cataclysmic events that threaten the human race and the natural world. A useful set of definitions is provided, and an annotated bibliography of a representative assortment of reference books and monographs.

  10. Can we be prepared for the next accident or catastrophe?

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophes and accidents (natural, technological, or man--‐made) have been subjected to scientific research from different disciplines and perspectives for a long time. Examples of these perspectives include community risk and vulnerability, human behaviour during crisis, fire behaviour and eco--‐system management, decision--‐making, communication, and collaboration issues. This paper deals with different perspectives of preparation and prevention in terms of accidents and catastrophes. The...

  11. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  12. Some Aspects of the Economics of Catastrophe Risk Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2005-01-01

    The ability to share risk efficiently in the economy is essential to welfare and growth. However, the increased frequency of natural catastrophes over the last decade has raised once again questions associated to the limits of insurability in a free-market economy, and to the relevance of public interventions on risk-sharing markets. In this paper, we explore the potential reasons for the lack of insurance specifically associated to catastrophe environmental risks. Our final aim is to link ea...

  13. Electron Vortex Production and Control Using Aberration Induced Diffraction Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, T. C.; Weyland, M.; Paganin, D. M.; Simula, T. P.; Eastwood, S. A.; Morgan, M. J.

    2013-01-01

    An aberration corrected electron microscope is used to create electron diffraction catastrophes, containing arrays of intensity zeros threading vortex cores. Vortices are ascribed to these arrays using catastrophe theory, scalar diffraction integrals, and experimentally retrieved phase maps. From measured wave function phases, obtained using focal-series phase retrieval, the orbital angular momentum density is mapped for highly astigmatic electron probes. We observe vortex rings and topological reconnections of nodal lines by tracking the vortex cores using the retrieved phases.

  14. Risk Assessment of Power System Catastrophic Failures and Hidden Failure Monitoring & Control System

    OpenAIRE

    Qiu, Qun

    2003-01-01

    One of the objectives of this study is to develop a methodology, together with a set of software programs that evaluate, in a power system, the risks of catastrophic failures caused by hidden failures in the hardware or software components of the protection system. The disturbance propagation mechanism is revealed by the analysis of the 1977 New York Blackout. The step-by-step process of estimating the relay hidden failure probability is presented. A Dynamic Event Tree for the risk-based ana...

  15. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaput, Geneviève; Lajoie, Susanne P; Naismith, Laura M; Lavigne, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1) and 8 weeks (Time 2) after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r = .31 to .44), number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r = .35 to .45), psychological distress (r = .57 to .67), and level of functionality (r = -.43 to -.29). Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2). Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms. PMID:27445604

  16. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  17. Proteomic profiling revealed the functional networks associated with mitotic catastrophe of HepG2 hepatoma cells induced by 6-bromine-5-hydroxy-4-methoxybenzaldehyde

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitotic catastrophe, a form of cell death resulting from abnormal mitosis, is a cytotoxic death pathway as well as an appealing mechanistic strategy for the development of anti-cancer drugs. In this study, 6-bromine-5-hydroxy-4-methoxybenzaldehyde was demonstrated to induce DNA double-strand break, multipolar spindles, sustain mitotic arrest and generate multinucleated cells, all of which indicate mitotic catastrophe, in human hepatoma HepG2 cells. We used proteomic profiling to identify the differentially expressed proteins underlying mitotic catastrophe. A total of 137 differentially expressed proteins (76 upregulated and 61 downregulated proteins) were identified. Some of the changed proteins have previously been associated with mitotic catastrophe, such as DNA-PKcs, FoxM1, RCC1, cyclin E, PLK1-pT210, 14-3-3σ and HSP70. Multiple isoforms of 14-3-3, heat-shock proteins and tubulin were upregulated. Analysis of functional significance revealed that the 14-3-3-mediated signaling network was the most significantly enriched for the differentially expressed proteins. The modulated proteins were found to be involved in macromolecule complex assembly, cell death, cell cycle, chromatin remodeling and DNA repair, tubulin and cytoskeletal organization. These findings revealed the overall molecular events and functional signaling networks associated with spindle disruption and mitotic catastrophe. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research highlights: → 6-bromoisovanillin induced spindle disruption and sustained mitotic arrest, consequently resulted in mitotic catastrophe. → Proteomic profiling identified 137 differentially expressed proteins associated mitotic catastrophe. → The 14-3-3-mediated signaling network was the most significantly enriched for the altered proteins. → The macromolecule complex assembly, cell cycle, chromatin remodeling and DNA repair, tubulin organization were also shown involved in mitotic catastrophe.

  18. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  19. The efficacy of stream power and flow duration on geomorphic responses to catastrophic flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magilligan, F. J.; Buraas, E. M.; Renshaw, C. E.

    2015-01-01

    Geomorphologists have long studied the impacts of extreme floods, yet the association between the magnitude of flow parameters (discharge, velocity, shear stress, or stream power) and resulting geomorphic effectiveness remains vague and non-deterministic. Attempts have been made to include flow duration and total expenditure of stream power, in combination with peak unit stream power, as important variables, but there has been minimal exploration of this hydraulic combination. Taking advantage of Tropical Storm Irene's rapid track through eastern Vermont (USA) in late summer 2011, this paper presents the array of geomorphic responses to a short duration (time to peak of theory concerning the role of, and trade-off between, the magnitude of energy expenditure during a flood and its duration. Focusing on a detailed field effort within the 187-km2 Saxtons River basin in southeastern VT, augmented by select sites along the adjacent lower gradient Williams River (291-km2), we elucidate (1) the geomorphic effects of a short duration flood in a humid, well-vegetated landscape; (2) the relationship between geomorphic response and (a) peak stream power, (b) total stream power, and (c) flow duration of stream power above a critical threshold; and (3) the spatial variation of geomorphic effects relative to reach-scale geologic and geomorphic controls. Flooding associated with Tropical Storm Irene ranged from the 1000 year recurrence interval (RI) flood (based on Weibull flood frequency analysis) to the 300 year RI flood (log Pearson Type III). Discharges spawned a peak unit stream power of 712 W/m2 (Saxtons River) and 361 W/m2 (Williams River), with total energy expenditure throughout the event of ~ 16,000 × 103 and 15,000 × 103 J, respectively. For the Saxtons River, channel widening was spatially infrequent and limited in magnitude; however, other geomorphic effects were profound (1) the entrainment, transport, and deposition of extremely coarse material; (2) stripping of

  20. Coordinated research programme on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events. V. 1. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume is a collection of progress reports which have been submitted within the scope of the CRP on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events including seismic related papers and man-induced events (explosions and airplane crash). It includes papers concerned with experience related to RBMK equipment testing and calculations of seismic resistance, soil-structure interactions analysis, safety assurance, aircraft impact qualification and other external events for RBMK type NPP, seismic stability of NPPs in Eastern Europe, probabilistic assessment of NPP safety under aircraft impact, dynamic analysis of NPPs, screening of external hazards for NPP

  1. Observational Features of Large-Scale Structures as Revealed by the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale magnetic structures are the main carrier of major eruptions in the solar atmosphere. These structures are rooted in the photosphere and are driven by the unceasing motion of the photospheric material through a series of equilibrium configurations. The motion brings energy into the coronal magnetic field until the system ceases to be in equilibrium. The catastrophe theory for solar eruptions indicates that loss of mechanical equilibrium constitutes the main trigger mechanism of major eruptions, usually shown up as solar flares,eruptive prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Magnetic reconnection which takes place at the very beginning of the eruption as a result of plasma instabilities/turbulence inside the current sheet, converts magnetic energy into heating and kinetic energy that are responsible for solar flares, and for accelerating both plasma ejecta (flows and CMEs) and energetic particles. Various manifestations are thus related to one another, and the physics behind these relationships is catastrophe and magnetic reconnection. This work reports on recent progress in both theoretical research and observations on eruptive phenomena showing the above manifestations. We start by displaying the properties of large-scale structures in the corona and the related magnetic fields prior to an eruption, and show various morphological features of the disrupting magnetic fields. Then, in the framework of the catastrophe theory,we look into the physics behind those features investigated in a succession of previous works,and discuss the approaches they used.

  2. A theoretical framework for dichroism and the resonance-enhanced scattering of x-rays by magnetic materials: II. Quadrupolar absorption events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovesey, Stephen W.

    1996-12-01

    Previous work with the resonant scattering length that is based on an atomic model and dipolar absorption events is extended to encompass quadrupolar absorption events. The scattering length is the common element in calculations of the attenuation coefficient, dichroism and the cross-sections for elastic and inelastic resonance-enhanced scattering of x-rays by magnetic materials. Both jj-coupling and Russell - Saunders coupling schemes for the atomic electrons are utilized; included are tables of relevant Racah unit-tensor operators for the valence shell 0953-8984/8/50/025/img1.

  3. Catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rocks slipping in faultage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hai-qing; WANG Xue-qing; YUAN Jing

    2008-01-01

    The model of catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rock slipping in fault zone based on catastrophic theory and the potential function of fault movement were presented. On the basis of the results above, through Taylor series expansion of the equation of equilibrium surface, its standard form was obtained. Analysis show that catastrophic destabilization of tunnel will occur only when stiffness ratio between elastic sector and strain weakening sector of soft rocks was larger than or equal to 1. On the other hand,sliding behavior and evolution path of fault were directly affected by exogenous process,and it was a major extraneous factor which leads to catastrophic destabilization of tunnel.In the condition of system catastrophe could be generated, if external forces vary from smaller to larger, firstly, fault sticks or creeps, and secondly, when external force equal to or larger than critical value, fault turns to slip suddenly. Inverse, if external forces vary from larger to smaller, fault smoothly slips firstly, when external force equal to or smaller than critical value, and fault turns to stick or creep suddenly.

  4. Review of events occurring during the transport of radioactive material for the period 1984-1993. A report on the IAEA's EVTRAM database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1988 the International Atomic Energy Agency initiated data collecting activities for accidents and incidents (EVTRAM), shipments (SHIPTRAM) and radiation exposure (EXTRAM) in connection with radioactive material transport. This publication reports on the data made available for the EVTRAM database by ten Member States regarding events occurring during the transport of radioactive material during the period 1984-1993. The main objectives of the EVATRAM database are to provide information to support evaluations of the effectiveness of the IAEA's Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material and provide a means of information exchange for any lessons learned. Member States providing data do so on a voluntary basis an report only those events that involve the safety features of packages being transported. The tables presented in this report are based solely on the data provided regarding 128 valid cases. Where it is meaningful to relate frequency tables this has been done in the section containing cross-tabulations; otherwise, the frequency tables are to be considered individually. Because it is neither complete nor comprehensive the data has severely limited uses for establishing trends or drawing conclusions. The statistical analyses performed are to be considered only in this light. Neither the data nor the tables may be cited as the basis for general, conclusive statements about radioactive material transport events. 4 refs, 5 tabs

  5. The Fukushima Dai-ichi catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article explains the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi in terms of the fundamental safety principles and how these principles are achieved by design. Design differences between the reactors at Fukushima and a typical CANDU reactor are explained to illustrate how the safety principles can be achieved by different reactor designs. How these principles fared at Fukushima is explained. A detailed chronology of events is given in a separate table. (author)

  6. Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Worthington Wilmer

    Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

  7. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  8. Gravothermal Catastrophe: the dynamical stability of a fluid model

    CERN Document Server

    Sormani, M C

    2013-01-01

    A re-investigation of the gravothermal catastrophe is presented. By means of a linear perturbation analysis, we study the dynamical stability of a spherical self-gravitating isothermal fluid of finite volume and find that the conditions for the onset of the gravothermal catastrophe, under different external conditions, coincide with those obtained from thermodynamical arguments. This suggests that the gravothermal catastrophe may reduce to Jeans instability, rediscovered in an inhomogeneous framework. We find normal modes and frequencies for the fluid system and show that instability develops on the dynamical time scale. We then discuss several related issues. In particular: (1) For perturbations at constant total energy and constant volume, we introduce a simple heuristic term in the energy budget to mimic the role of binaries. (2) We outline the analysis of the two-component case and show how linear perturbation analysis can be carried out also in this more complex context in a relatively straightforward wa...

  9. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  10. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  11. CATASTROPHIC FLANK COLLAPSE ON TA’U ISLAND AND SUBSEQUENT TSUNAMI: HAS THIS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 170 YEARS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun Williams

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ta’u, the easternmost inhabited island in the Samoan Islands archipelago, exhibits a series of down-faulted benches on its southern flank, believed to be the remnant of ~30 km3 catastrophic collapse. A historical map of Ta’u charted in 1839 during the United States Exploring Expedition, which did not show the benches, suggests that the event occurred less than 170 years ago. A collapse event of this magnitude would have generated a locally devastating tsunami, with possible impacts experienced at the regional level. However, no written or oral records of such an event exist. A number of key questions thus emerge, and formed the basis for this study. Did this event actually happen within the last 170 years, and if so, how and why could it have gone unnoticed? Or, is the event much older than the impression obtained from the literature? The catastrophic flank collapse was modeled using 100 m contour-resolution bathymetry data of the Ta’u region, coupled with rational assumptions made on the geometry of the failed mass. This enabled numerical landslide- tsunami simulation in the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT. The results indicate that if an event of this magnitude occurred in the last 170 years, it could not have gone unnoticed by local inhabitants. It thus seems likely that the initial survey conducted during the Exploring Expedition was inaccurate. Nevertheless, the well-preserved nature of the benches indicates collapse relatively recently and raises the possibility of future collapse.

  12. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

  13. Application of Catastrophe Theory in 3D Seismic Data Interpretation of Coal Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Mu-hua; YANG Wen-qiang; CUI Hui-xia

    2005-01-01

    In order to detect fault exactly and quickly, cusp catastrophe theory is used to interpret 3D coal seismic data in this paper. By establishing a cusp model, seismic signal is transformed into standard form of cusp catastrophe and catastrophe parameters, including time-domain catastrophe potential, time-domain catastrophe time, frequency-domain catastrophe potential and frequency- domain degree, are calculated. Catastrophe theory is used in 3D seismic structural interpretation in coal mine. The results show that the position of abnormality of the catastrophe parameter profile or curve is related to the location of fault, and the cusp catastrophe theory is effective to automatically pick up geology information and improve the interpretation precision in 3D seismic data.

  14. Carbon dioxide catastrophes: Past and future menace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baur, Mario E.

    1988-01-01

    Carbon dioxide is important in its role as coupler of the terrestrial biosphere to inorganic chemical processes and as the principal greenhouse gas controlling Earth's surface temperature. The hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 levels have diminished with time, with the resulting cooling effect offsetting an increase in the solar constant, seems firmly established, and it is shown that feedback mechanisms exist which can maintain the terrestrial surface in a relatively narrow temperature range over geological time. Of the factors involved in such CO2 variation, the oceanic reservoir appears the most important. Surface waters are probably in approximate equilibrium with regard to CO2 exchange with the ambient atmosphere in most regions, but data from deep-ocean water sampling indicates that such waters are somewhat undersaturated in the sense that they would tend to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere if brought to the surface without change in composition or temperature. If major impacts into the ocean can result in loss of a substantial portion of the atmospheric CO2 reservoir, then any such future event could imperil the continuation of most higher forms of life on Earth. The most likely candidate for an inverse Nyos global event in previous Earth history is the Cretaceous-Tertiary terminal extinction event. The Cretaceous was characterized by warm, equable temperatures presumably indicative of relatively high CO2 levels and an intense greenhouse heating. Cooling of the oceans in absence of massive transfer of CO2 to the oceanic reservoir in itself would promote a condition of CO2 undersaturation in abyssal waters, and this is made even more extreme by the pattern of ocean water circulation. It is possible to envision a situation in which deep ocean waters were at least occasionally profoundly undersaturated with regard to CO2. Turnover of a major fraction of such an ocean would then remove, on a very short time scale, as much as 90 percent of the atmospheric CO2

  15. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    OpenAIRE

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani; Saber Azami-Aghdash; Abdolhassan Kazemi; Behrad Ziapour

    2015-01-01

    Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis...

  16. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma I Al-Beladi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS. We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS, which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  17. The role of religion in moderating the impact of life events on material life goals: Some evidence in support of terror management theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, SWY; Lau, EYY; Cheung, SF; Mok, DSY; Hui, CH

    2013-01-01

    How would religion and a life event carrying an existential threat (LEET) jointly impact a person's life goals of becoming wealthy and successful in one's career? Goal reprioritisation, socioemotional selectivity, and gerotranscendence theories predict a shift away from material goals following a LEET, independent of the effect of religion. However, terror management theory (TMT) predicts that the effect of death thoughts depends on one's prevailing cultural values. As religion can be regarde...

  18. Evolutionary Catastrophes: The Science of Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Willis

    The stories behind the greatest scientific controversies are more than entertaining. They provide windows into the evolution of scientific thought, scientific method, technological achievements and their research applications, and the influence of individuals and personalities on a community's acceptance of a theory Epic controversies surround the theories for Earth's mass extinction events, and none is more spectacular than the continuing polemic over the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) mass extinctions and ultimate demise of the dinosaurs.In contrast to other great scientific debates, we tend to view the K/T event in the context of a crime scene, where the spectacularly diverse flora and fauna of a primordial Eden were unwittingly slain by one or more ruthless and efficient killers. A “foreign” suspect has been fingered; an intruder that killed suddenly and randomly has become the principal suspect. The main clues uncovered in the case include a global K/T iridium anomaly; shock-deformed minerals in K/T boundary sediments; the ˜6 5 m.y-old Deccan flood-basalt province, which covered an area roughly the size of France; and the ˜6 5 m.y-old Chicxulub impact crater in the Yucatan peninsula, which seems to be among the largest to have formed in the inner solar system over the past billion years.

  19. Catastrophes and conservation: Lessons from sea otters and the Exxon Valdez

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this commentary, the author considers the effort to save sea otters after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Despite immense expenditures, the emerging facts lead to two conclusions: population losses were poorly documented, and few animals were saved. These findings cast doubt on our ability to protect sea otters from future spills and lead to troubling questions about how to recognize and document the effects of catastrophic events, and, ultimately, the utility of highly visible and expensive efforts to save wildlife from perceived environmental catastrophes. On 24 March 1989, the Exxon Valdez ran aground on Bligh Reef in northeastern Prince William Sound, spilling more than 10 million gallons of crude oil. Catastrophic losses were expected and a monumental effort was made to save sea otters. The Exxon Valdez spill spread over a linear distance of more than 700 kilometers and soiled an estimated 5,300 kilometers of shoreline. While cleaning up and capturing oiled wildlife for rehabilitation, 878 sea otter carcasses were recovered - a minimal estimate of loss. However, many animals killed by the spill undoubtedly were not found. Losses have been estimated from pre- and post-spill surveys, although these surveys shed little light on the population-level effect, mainly because the size and distribution of the population just prior to the spill is poorly known. This is because a comprehensive survey of Prince William Sound and adjacent waters was not done immediately after the spill but before oil dispersed into southwestern Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Thus, although the Exxon Valdez spill undoubtedly killed many sea otters and may have reduced populations substantially, available data lack the power to demonstrate population changes

  20. Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

    2015-12-22

    Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

  1. Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

    2015-12-01

    Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

  2. Research and development of catastrophe risk assessment models%巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘博; 唐微木

    2011-01-01

    Natural catastrophe can cause the damage to the human being and make a huge loss of property.As people known,catastrophe even can lead to unstability of national politics and economy.Therefore,how to carry out risk management and reduce the loss of the catastrophe event is the most important thing of the catastrophe risk management.This paper introduces catastrophe model,reviews the research situation of the catastrophe model and gives some suggestions for establishing an effective catastrophe model in China.%巨灾已经成为全球经济损失的重要原因之一。近20年来,巨灾频繁发生,造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失,巨灾的发生甚至可能造成国家政治经济的不稳定。因此如何进行巨灾风险管理并减轻巨灾事件发生后所造成的损害,便成为一个相当重要的研究课题。巨灾风险评估模型作为应对巨灾风险最为有效的分析工具,近20年来得到了长足的发展,同时巨灾模型已成为巨灾保险设立的根本依据。对巨灾模型的发展与模型构架进行了综述,并结合我国的实际情况提出了一些建议。

  3. Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

  4. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  5. 7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... history program (7 CFR part 400, subpart G) or for crops not included under 7 CFR part 400, subpart G, the... Endorsement: (1) The Common Crop Insurance Policy (7 CFR 457.8) and crop provisions; (2) The Group Risk Plan... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement...

  6. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...

  7. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt;

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...

  8. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, Max; Dekker, Stefan C.; Ruiter, Peter C. de; Koppel, Johan van de

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  9. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; de Ruiter, P.C.; Van de Koppel, J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  10. Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kefi, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Nes, E.H. van; Rietkerk, M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to external changes can surprise us by their abruptness and irreversibility. Models have helped identifying indicators of impending catastrophic shifts, referred to as ‘generic early warning signals’. These indicators are linked to a phenomenon known as ‘critical slowing down’ wh

  11. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890. ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  12. Training and Practice in Trauma, Catastrophes, and Disaster Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Sharon L.; Roysircar, Gargi

    2011-01-01

    Trauma-related assistance in response to disasters or catastrophes is needed locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally, and the authors argue that there is a necessity for counseling psychologists and counseling psychology programs to incorporate it into their prevention, training, and social justice repertoire. Counseling psychologists…

  13. Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The List contains nine categories of events involving NRC licensed material or licensees. It is deliberately broad in scope for two main reasons. First, the list is designed to serve as a reference document. It is as complete and accurate as possible. Second, the list is intended to provide as broad a perspective of the nature of licensee-related events as possible. The nine categories of events are as follows: bomb-related events; intrusion events; missing and/or allegedly stolen events; transportation-related events; vandalism events; arson events; firearms-related events; sabotage events; and miscellaneous events

  14. 15 CFR 2301.10 - Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... catastrophic damage or emergency situations. 2301.10 Section 2301.10 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations... Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations. (a) An application may be filed with a... suffers catastrophic damage to the basic equipment essential to its continued operation as a result of...

  15. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance AGENCY: Federal Insurance Office... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247..., Attention: Study on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance, Room 1319 MT, Department of the Treasury,...

  16. The hydrogen defense against climate catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current oil sands practices reverse a very important trend away from burning carbon and towards the use of hydrogen. The oil sands buck this very important trend. Carbon based fuels are being used to get the relatively high carbon oils to the surface. These oils are then upgraded by ejecting carbon, a process that itself uses a lot of energy whilst simultaneously reducing overall efficiency by reducing the energy content of the material that has been recovered. The carbon footprint is large before we even get to put the gas into our tanks and with plans to use oil from the sands for energy rather than natural gas things are only going to get worse. If things do not change there is a real danger that future oil sands development will be restricted by legislation. At the very least Canada will become an environmental pariah. On the other hand it is clear that fossil fuels will be a significant part of our energy mix for the foreseeable future and the oil sands are a strategic global resource that ensures our energy security. Nuclear power and in the longer term hydrogen derived from nuclear power may provide the answer. The carbon consumed during raw product recovery can be reduced using nuclear energy while the fuel quality and efficiency of energy recovery is improved through adding hydrogen. In this paper some of the work of Professor David Sanborn Scott of the International Association of Hydrogen is discussed and put into the context of the oil sands. (author)

  17. The role of National Radiation Protection Duty Service in the events involving smuggled nuclear materials in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The Hungarian National Radiation Protection Duty Service (NRPDS) was established to handle on-the-spot the accidents and incidents involving radioactive and nuclear materials. The NRPDS was founded by the Ministry of Health more than twenty years ago and the Department for Radiohygiene of the 'Frederic Joliot-Curie' National Research Institute for Radiobiology and Radiohygiene was selected to provide radiation protection professionals for the service. In the last decade a high number of incidents have been managed by the NRPDS in Hungary including more than 6 cases that were related to nuclear materials. In the presentation we would like to overview the most important incidents and summarize the experience gathered during our practice. (author)

  18. Catastrophic versus microscopic damage: applicability of laboratory measurements to real systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At ultraviolet wavelengths, damage to both coatings and bare surfaces is dominated by the presence of discrete localized defects. During multiple-shot irradition, the overwhelming majority of these defects are damaged by the first or first few shots. Initially, damage morphology is that of a crater of approximately 10 microns in diameter; however, upon continued irradiation, one of two events can occur; either the crater grows to catastrophic dimensions or it remains unchanged. In the latter case, the damage is only observable under a microscope, it may be indistinguishable from cosmetic defects before irradiation, and it is likely that any related degradation in optical performance is unmeasurable. In view of the generally accepted definition of laser damage (i.e. any visible change in the surface), it is important to consider the implications for real systems. These are discussed in the context of ultraviolet test results for both coatings and surfaces

  19. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.)

  20. The Kychtym accident or the story of a secret catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the causes, the circumstances and the environmental consequences of the Kychtym catastrophe (Ural, USSR) that occurred in September 29, 1957 in the fuel recycle plant of the Tcheliabinsk military-industrial complex. A brief description of the separation process and of the installations used is given to understand the conclusions of the inquiry carried out by Russian and foreign experts. The violent redox reaction between nitrates and acetates that occurred, was due to a lack of cooling in the fission products storage ponds. The catastrophe produced a huge strontium 90-rich radioactive cloud which led to a 9000 to 15000 km2 surface contamination. A comparison with the PUREX separation process used in France is given to evaluate the risk of such industrial accidents in French fuel recycle centers. (J.S.). 1 fig., 2 photos

  1. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  2. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836. ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant ostatní: GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  3. The Risk and Duration of Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    OpenAIRE

    Feenberg, Daniel; Skinner, Jonathan

    1992-01-01

    Catastrophic medical expenses are an important economic risk facing the elderly. Little is known about the persistence of such out-of-pocket medical costs. We measure the time-series property of medical costs using information on medical deductions from a panel of tax returns. During the period of analysis, 1968-73, taxpayers could deduct medical expenses above 3 percent of income. We correct for the resulting censoring bias using multivariate Tobit estimated with a variant of the smoothed si...

  4. Bank strategies in catastrophe settings: empirical evidence and policy suggestions

    OpenAIRE

    Leonardo Becchetti; Stefano Castriota; Pierluigi Conzo

    2012-01-01

    The poor in developing countries are the most exposed to natural catastrophes and microfinance organizations may potentially ease their economic recovery. Yet, no evidence on MFIs strategies after natural disasters exists. We aim to fill this gap by building adataset which merges bank records of loans, issued before and after the 2004 Tsunami by a Sri Lankan MFI recapitalized by Western donors, with detailed survey data on the corresponding borrowers. Evidence of effective post-calamity inter...

  5. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  6. Book review: Global NATO and the catastrophic failure in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    von Weitershausen, Inez

    2013-01-01

    "Global NATO and the Catastrophic Failure in Libya." Horace Campbell. Monthly Review Press. March 2013. --- Horace Campbell investigates the political and economic crises of the early twenty-first century through the prism of NATO’s intervention in Libya. He traces the origins of the conflict, situates it in the broader context of the Arab Spring uprisings, and explains the expanded role of a post-Cold War NATO. This military organization is the instrument through which the capitalist cla...

  7. Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss

    OpenAIRE

    J. David Cummins; Lewis, Christopher M.; Phillips, Richard D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a pricing methodology and pricing estimates for the proposed Federal excess-of- loss (XOL) catastrophe reinsurance contracts. The contracts, proposed by the Clinton Administration, would provide per-occurrence excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage to private insurers and reinsurers, where both the coverage layer and the fixed payout of the contract are based on insurance industry losses, not company losses. In financial terms, the Federal government would be selling earthqua...

  8. Catastrophic Fault Recovery with Self-Reconfigurable Chips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Will Hua; Marzwell, Neville I.; Chau, Savio N.

    2006-01-01

    Mission critical systems typically employ multi-string redundancy to cope with possible hardware failure. Such systems are only as fault tolerant as there are many redundant strings. Once a particular critical component exhausts its redundant spares, the multi-string architecture cannot tolerate any further hardware failure. This paper aims at addressing such catastrophic faults through the use of 'Self-Reconfigurable Chips' as a last resort effort to 'repair' a faulty critical component.

  9. Dynamic of gastroduodenal bleeding distribution after Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It was investigated the evidence of gastroduodenal bleeding between Belarus population from 1989 to 1996 period. 27981 occurrences of this disease were registered. The annual permanent growth of the disease was revealed. Between persons, having worked in the Chernobyl region in the first year after the catastrophe, it was found the ulcer disease distribution in 7 times greater than between the whole population. It was concluded about heavy course of ulcer disease in residents of Belarus in the modern conditions

  10. Underwater studies in the regions of 'Komsomolets' nuclear submarine catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a summary of the results of an expedition in the area of the 'Komsomolets' nuclear submarine catastrophe. The submarine sunk in the Norvegian Sea, 1690 m deep-seated in April 1989. The ecological situation was studied, radioactivity levels onboard the submarine and around it were measured. Visual inspections of the submarine and its parts have shown permissible levels of radioactive contamination. 1 ref., 3 figs

  11. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  12. Usages des TIC et rapports a l’incertitude en situation de catastrophes naturelles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Brossaud

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet article montre comment des professionnels et des sinistrés qui ont été confrontés à des catastrophes naturelles sur trois territoires distincts - la tempête à Limoges en 1999, les inondations à Abbeville (2001 et à Bourg-en-Bresse (2005 - ont construit une histoire commune du risque au moyen des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC : Internet, téléphone portable, bases de données, outils de travail partagés, etc. Les usages des TIC sont d’abord resitués concrètement avant, pendant et après les événements dans un contexte historique où les sciences et techniques sont de plus en plus sollicitées pour réduire les incertitudes liées aux menaces sanitaires et écologiques. On voit ensuite s’élaborer une culture du risque sur la base de compétences socio-cognitives et relationnelles particulières face aux événements et à leur prise en charge technologique. Nous examinons en dernier ressort le rôle des TIC dans l’apprentissage d’une argumentation et d’une délibération collective sur les catastrophes, notamment grâce à la mise en place d’outils dédiés à l’étude sur le site http://www.technorisque.net.This article shows how professionnals and disaster victims involved in natural catastrophes in three different areas - Limoges storm in 1999, Abbeville and Bourg-en-Bresse floods in 2001 and 2005 – built a commun risk story with Information and communication technologies (ICT : Internet, mobiles, data bases, groupware, etc. At first, ICT uses are concretely approached before, during and after the events in a historic context where sciences and technology are growing up to reduce uncertainties of medical and ecological threats. Then, in the second part of this article, a risk culture is supported by socio-cognitive and relationnal competences towards events and their technological holding. At last, we examine ICT place in a collective argumentation and deliberation about the

  13. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  14. Bifurcation and catastrophe of seepage flow system in broken rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO Xie-xing; LI Shun-cai; CHEN Zhan-qing

    2009-01-01

    The study of dynamical behavior of water or gas flows in broken rock is a basic research topic among a series of key projects about stability control of the surrounding rocks in mines and the prevention of some disasters such as water inrush or gas outburst and the protection of the groundwater resource. It is of great theoretical and engineering importance in respect of promo-tion of security in mine production and sustainable development of the coal industry. According to the non-Darcy property of seepage flow in broken rock dynamic equations of non-Darcy and non-steady flows in broken rock are established. By dimensionless transformation, the solution diagram of steady-states satisfying the given boundary conditions is obtained. By numerical analysis of low relaxation iteration, the dynamic responses corresponding to the different flow parameters have been obtained. The stability analysis of the steady-states indicate that a saddle-node bifurcaton exists in the seepage flow system of broken rock. Consequently, using catastrophe theory, the fold catastrophe model of seepage flow instability has been obtained. As a result, the bifurcation curves of the seepage flow systems with different control parameters are presented and the standard potential function is also given with respect to the generalized state variable for the fold catastrophe of a dynamic system of seepage flow in broken rock.

  15. Catastrophic rupture of lunar rocks - A Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerz, F.; Schneider, E.; Gault, D. E.; Hartung, J. B.; Brownlee, D. E.

    1975-01-01

    A computer model based on Monte Carlo techniques was developed to simulate the destruction of lunar rocks by 'catastrophic rupture' due to meteoroid impact. Energies necessary to accomplish catastrophic rupture were derived from laboratory experiments. A crater-production rate derived from lunar rocks was utilized to calculate absolute time scales. Calculated median survival times for crystalline lunar rocks are 1.9, 4.6, 10.3, and 22 m.y. for rock masses of 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 g, respectively. Corresponding times of 6, 14.5, 32, and 68 million years are required before the probability of destruction reaches 0.99. These results are consistent with absolute exposure ages measured on returned rocks. Some results also substantiate previous conclusions that the catastrophic-rupture process is significantly more effective in obliterating lunar rocks than mass wasting by single-particle abrasion. The view is also corroborated that most rocks presently on the lunar surface either are exhumed from the regolith or are fragments of much larger boulders rather than primary ejecta excavated from pristine bedrock.

  16. Molecular and Mechanical Causes of Microtubule Catastrophe and Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, Pavel; Gudimchuk, Nikita; Voevodin, Vladimir; Tikhonravov, Alexander; Ataullakhanov, Fazoil I; Grishchuk, Ekaterina L

    2015-12-15

    Tubulin polymers, microtubules, can switch abruptly from the assembly to shortening. These infrequent transitions, termed "catastrophes", affect numerous cellular processes but the underlying mechanisms are elusive. We approached this complex stochastic system using advanced coarse-grained molecular dynamics modeling of tubulin-tubulin interactions. Unlike in previous simplified models of dynamic microtubules, the catastrophes in this model arise owing to fluctuations in the composition and conformation of a growing microtubule tip, most notably in the number of protofilament curls. In our model, dynamic evolution of the stochastic microtubule tip configurations over a long timescale, known as the system's "aging", gives rise to the nonexponential distribution of microtubule lifetimes, consistent with experiment. We show that aging takes place in the absence of visible changes in the microtubule wall or tip, as this complex molecular-mechanical system evolves slowly and asymptotically toward the steady-state level of the catastrophe-promoting configurations. This new, to our knowledge, theoretical basis will assist detailed mechanistic investigations of the mechanisms of action of different microtubule-binding proteins and drugs, thereby enabling accurate control over the microtubule dynamics to treat various pathologies. PMID:26682815

  17. Catastrophic-flood Features in Swedish Lapland as a Terrestrial Analog for Martian Channel Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossbacher, L. A.; Rhodes, D. D.

    1985-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding associated with deglaciation created unusual landscapes in several areas of northern Sweden. These areas in Swedish Lapland are distinguished by the large grain-size material that forms them. The presence of boulders at both Viking landing sites suggests the relevance of this analog. The Baldakatj area of Swedish Lapland offers terrestrial analogs for erosional remnants on Mars. Although the Baldakatj features are an order of magnitude or more smaller than the Martian forms, they created in boulder-rich till that may be a good approximation of the near-surface material on Mars. The Baldakatj area also includes other landforms that could reasonably be expected to occur with the Martian outflow channels, including boulder deltas, large transported blocks, and large-scale bedforms.

  18. A geomorphological analysis of Ares Vallis, Mars, using HRSC data: new constrains about catastrophic floods and ice-related morphologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, A.; Ori, G. G.; Komatsu, G.; Pondrelli, M.

    Ares Vallis, Mars, using HRSC data: new constrains about catastrophic floods and ice-related morphologies. A. Pacifici, G. G. Ori, G. Komatsu, and M. Pondrelli International Research School of Planetary Sciences, Universita' "G. d'Annunzio", Pescara, Italy. (pacifici@irsps.unich.it) Ares Vallis is one of the greatest outflow channels of Mars: it was extensively investigated in the past decades, also to support landing site analysis of the 1997 NASA Pathfinder Mission. Using high-resolution images of last Martian missions (MGS, Mars Odyssey, and MEX), we investigated Ares Vallis and its tributaries, taking also advantage of 3D analysis performed using the MEX HRSC stereo capability. Ares Vallis appears to be characterized by different morphological associations along its path. We observe and investigate grooved terrains, streamlined uplands, pendant bars and several thermokarstic features: detailed measurements of such features are performed, and their geological properties are suggested. Observed morphologies give new constrains about catastrophic floods, and concur to provide a possible geologic history of the trough. Our investigations revealed that Ares Vallis and its tributary were sculpted by several catastrophic floods, well spaced in time, and originating from Iani, Hydaspis and Aram Chaos. Floods were responsible for sculpting of grooved terrains and streamlined uplands. During these catastrophic events, climatic conditions of the planet are assumed to be similar to those of today, and ice probably formed on top of the floods. Consequently, at the end of each flood, ice masses grounded and joined to each other and formed a thick stagnant dead-ice body. Floods of lower magnitudes and possibly different in origin were responsible for the emplacement of ice contact deposits. Several pieces of evidence for sub and/or intra-glacial floods are observed. Finally, we observe associations of pitted surfaces and high values of emittance on Infra-Red Thermal images

  19. Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayse Kart

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Socio-demographic Data Form and CCQ Turkish version were administered to participants. Reliability of CCQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach%u2019s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation were used for factor analysis. Results: Fifty-five point six percent (n=139 of the participants were female and fourty-four point four percent (n=111 were male. Internal consistency of the questionnaire was calculated 0.920 by Cronbach alpha. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaire were found as 0.917 and 0.832. Again spearmen-brown coefficient was found as 0.875 by the same analysis. Factor analysis revealed five basic factors. These five factors explained %66.2 of the total variance. Discussion: The results of this study show that the Turkish version of CCQ is a reliable and valid scale.

  20. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  1. Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

  2. Double scaling limits and airy functions for O(N) vector sigma models with elementary catastrophes or the catastrophe X9

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One and two vector sigma models are defined that possess catastrophes in their action. Each catastrophe defines a double scaling limit at N→∞. Critical indices are calculated and the Airy functions are shown to satisfy RG equations. Copyright copyright 1996 Academic Press, Inc

  3. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    OpenAIRE

    Safarzynska, Karolina; Brouwer, Roy; Hofkes, Marjan

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static or dynamic way, and describe economic processes at a high level of aggregation. As a consequence, they typically fail to account for the complexity of social interactions and other behavioural res...

  4. Estimate of total effective dose to members of the public due to airborne materials release in the event of a sever accident at the Tehran research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work, total effective dose to members of the public due to airborne materials release in the event of a severe accident at the Tehran Research Reactor (T R R) has been estimated. The severe accident at the T R R is a loss-of-coolant accident. Dose assessments have been made by using computer developed program AIREMN1. In this program, Pasquill-Gifford atmospheric dispersion model has been used. External gamma and beta exposures by the passing radioactive cloud and by the submerging receptor while the radioactive cloud, is passing internal exposure by inhaled radioactivity have been considered as the exposure pathways. The resulting value for total effective dose has been estimated as 23 mSv occurred in downwind distance equals to 310 meters from the reactor stack. This value has relatively good agreement with respect to the reported value (approximately 30 mSv) in the T.R.R' safety analysis report

  5. C646, a selective small molecule inhibitor of histone acetyltransferase p300, radiosensitizes lung cancer cells by enhancing mitotic catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Background and purpose: Chromatin remodeling through histone modifications, including acetylation, plays an important role in the appropriate response to DNA damage induced by ionizing radiation (IR). Here we investigated the radiosensitizing effect of C646, a selective small molecule inhibitor of p300 histone acetyltransferase, and explored the underlying mechanisms. Materials and methods: A549, H157 and H460 human non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) cells, and HFL-III human lung fibroblasts were assessed by clonogenic survival assay. Apoptosis and necrosis were assessed by annexin V staining. Senescence was assessed by Senescence-associated β-galactosidase staining. Mitotic catastrophe was assessed by evaluating nuclear morphology with DAPI staining. Cell cycle profiles were analyzed by flow cytometry. Protein expression was analyzed by immunoblotting. Results: C646 sensitized A549, H460 and H157 cells to IR with a dose enhancement ratio at 10% surviving fraction of 1.4, 1.2 and 1.2, respectively. C646 did not radiosensitize HFL-III cells. In A549 cells, but not in HFL-III cells, C646 (i) enhanced mitotic catastrophe but not apoptosis, necrosis, or senescence after IR; (ii) increased the hyperploid cell population after IR; and (iii) suppressed the phosphorylation of CHK1 after IR. Conclusions: C646 radiosensitizes NSCLC cells by enhancing mitotic catastrophe through the abrogation of G2 checkpoint maintenance

  6. Earthquake and the Catastrophic End of the Late Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nur, A.

    2009-04-01

    The reasons for the catastrophic and wide spread political as well as physical collapse in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean areas that define the end of the Bronze age ca. 1225 BC to 1175 BC remain a major enigma. It has been attributed by historian to attacks by outsiders with the most favored group being the (enigmatic) so-called sea people. Unfortunately there is no real evidence for this. However combined geological, geophysical and archaeological evidence suggests that earthquakes may have played a key role in this extraordinary collapse during the late 13th and early 12th centuries . Based on the instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region during the 20th century, several events that have clear historical information, and the geography of seismically active faults it is obvious that numerous earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 or greater (enough to destroy modern buildings, let alone those of antiquity) occurred here frequently in the past. Furthermore major earthquakes often occur in this region in groups, known as ‘‘sequences'' or ‘‘storms'', in which one large quake is followed days, months, or a few years later by others elsewhere on the plate boundary fault lines. When a map of the areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region shaken by 20th century  earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 and greater and with an intensity of VII or greater is overlaid on Robert Drews' map of sites destroyed in these same regions during the so-called ‘‘Catastrophe'' near the end of the Late Bronze Age, it is readily apparent that virtually all of these LBA sites lie within the affected (‘‘high-shaking'') areas. This would suggest that a major ‘‘earthquake storm'' may have occurred in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean during the years 1225-1175 . This ‘‘storm'' may have interacted with societal, political and economic forces at work in these areas c. 1200  and

  7. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  8. Single-event upset in flash memories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Single-event upset was investigated in high-density flash memories from two different manufacturers. Many types of functional abnormalities can be introduced in these devices by heavy-ions because of their complex internal architecture. Changes in the stored memory contents sometimes occurred, even when devices were irradiated in a read mode with the internal charge pump inactive. For one device technology, unusually high currents were observed during post-irradiation cycling that were high enough to cause catastrophic failure

  9. Blue sky catastrophe as applied to modeling of cardiac rhythms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.

    2015-07-01

    A new mathematical model for the electrical activity of the heart is proposed. The model represents a special singularly perturbed three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with one fast and two slow variables. A characteristic feature of the system is that its solution performs nonclassical relaxation oscillations and simultaneously undergoes a blue sky catastrophe bifurcation. Both these factors make it possible to achieve a phenomenological proximity between the time dependence of the fast component in the model and an ECG of the human heart.

  10. Catastrophic medical protection: a plan for sharing excessive costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, R D

    1982-01-01

    Cost sharing provisions in both private and public health insurance plans have greatly increased consumer out-of-pocket expenses for medical services in recent years. The effects of these provisions, coupled with the effects of massive unemployment, have been that many individuals are unable to afford adequate health insurance protection. To protect the nation's health, new proposals to expand health coverage have given rise to catastrophic health insurance. This new health policy priority may assist many low-wage and unemployed workers to meet their cost-sharing obligations in the face of rising medical costs. PMID:10298874

  11. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  12. A general theory for flooding implementing cuspoids catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper combines Kelvin-Helmholtz Theory and Catastrophe Theory to develop a general mathematical framework for the flooding phenomenon. The theoretical model proposed in this paper is based on the functional relationship between the gas and liquid flow rates expressed in terms of a modified Kutateladze number that takes into account the effects of entrainment and geometry. A large number of experimental data has been examined against the theoretical model prediction. In most cases, good agreement is obtained by empirically varying only one coefficient. (orig.)

  13. First evidence of planetary water maser emission induced by the comet/Jupiter catastrophic impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosmovici, Cristiano B.; Montebugnoli, Stelio; Orfei, Alessandro; Pogrebenko, Sergej; Colom, Pierre

    1996-08-01

    The comet Shoemaker-Levy 9/Jupiter event gave a unique opportunity to study the consequences of a catastrophic impact in a planetary atmosphere and the subsequent changes in the chemistry and in the excitation conditions of atomic and molecular species. In particular previous attempts to detect molecular radio lines from the Jupiter atmosphere gave negative results. By using a new fast multichannel spectrometer (up to 128,000 channels), coupled with the 32 m dish of the Medicina Radiotelescope, three molecular lines observable in the available region of our system were searched for: water at 22.235 GHz, formaldehyde at 4.830 GHz and ammonia at 23.694 GHz. The detection of the 616→5 23 rotational transition of the 1.35 cm water line from blob E on July 19, 1994, 2 days after impact is reported. A possible detection of water emission from blobs A and C on the same day may be given only with a 3-sigma level. Emission from blob E was probably detected also on August 3 and September 9, i.e. up to 54 days after impact. The very narrow line width (40 kHz) and the high brightness temperature (20,000 K) of the water emission detected cannot be explained in terms of usual thermal emission when taking into account thermal and/or collisional broadening. In this paper it is shown that only a MASER effect could explain the observed values. This would be the first detection of a water MASER in the Solar System and the first evidence of masing effects induced by catastrophic impacts.

  14. Quantification of tsunami-induced flows on a Mediterranean carbonate ramp reveals catastrophic evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slootman, Arnoud; Cartigny, Matthieu J. B.; Moscariello, Andrea; Chiaradia, Massimo; de Boer, Poppe L.

    2016-06-01

    Cool-water carbonates are the dominant limestones in the Mediterranean Basin since the Early Pliocene. Their deposition typically resulted in ramp morphologies due to high rates of resedimentation. Several such fossil carbonate ramps are characterised by a bimodal facies stacking pattern, where background deposition of subaqueous dune and/or tempestite deposits is repeatedly interrupted by anomalously thick sedimentary units, dominated by backset-stratification formed by supercritical flows. A multitude of exceptional triggers (e.g. storms, floods, tsunamis) have been invoked to explain the origin of these supercritical flows, which, in the absence of a quantitative analysis, remains speculative as yet. Here, for the first time, the catastrophic evolution of one such Mediterranean carbonate ramp, on Favignana Island (Italy), is quantified by combining 87Sr/86Sr dating, outcrop-based palaeoflow reconstructions and hydraulic calculations. We demonstrate that rare tsunami-induced flows, occurring on average once every 14 to 35 kyr, lasting a few hours only, deposited the anomalously thick backset-bedded units that form half of the sedimentary record. In between such events, cumulative two years of storm-induced flows deposited the remaining half of the succession by the stacking of subaqueous dunes. The two to four orders of magnitude difference in average recurrence period between the two flow types, and their associated sedimentation rates, emphasises the genetic differences between the two styles of deposition. In terms of sediment transport, the studied carbonate ramp was inactive for at least 99% of the time with gradual progradation during decennial to centennial storm activity. Carbonate ramp evolution attained a catastrophic signature by the contribution of rare tsunamis, producing short-lived, high-energy sediment gravity flows.

  15. EVENT MARKETING

    OpenAIRE

    Cajnko, Katja

    2014-01-01

    In a highly developed consumer society saturated with advertisements, events are getting more and more popular as a marketing communication element. In literature events are mentioned in connection with tourism and event management, but recent research shows an increase in using events as an element of the marketing communication mix. Two of the most important advantages of events are: it is the consumer's own decision to attend the events and they can offer to the consumer a positive experie...

  16. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Urban, Zdeněk

    2013-01-01

    The thesis deals with event management and is formally divided into three sections. The first section provides the theoretical basis for the practical part. It primarily defines the terms event, event management and event marketing. The theoretical part proceeds from the general introduction to more detailed examination of the issue, which includes the classification of event marketing within the marketing and communication mix of the company, the typology of events and explanation of various...

  17. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Jandová, Dita

    2011-01-01

    The thesis deal with event management. For better insight into this field event management is described on case of management of conference. The thesis has three main parts. In the theoretical part there are definitions of terms like event management, conference and other related terms. Further chapters are concerned with the position of event management in the communication mix, typologies of events and mostly with the crucial aspects of event management. In the second part of the thesis the...

  18. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Šubrtová, Veronika

    2013-01-01

    This bachelor thesis on the topic event management develops this concept, focuses mainly on the creation of the event and its application in practice. Management, event and event management are described in the theoretical section. The importace of event management in the marketing communications mix is shown subsequently and especially the creation of the event is more detailed described. This is then reflected in the practical part of the thesis, in which the awards gala is planed and orga...

  19. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Grebíková, Kristýna

    2014-01-01

    The thesis in theoretical part focuses on the concepts of event management and their interaction. The theoretical part focuses on the creation of event planning and marketing strategies, typology of events, and provides a situational analysis, objectives events, defines the target group, plan the resources, establish a budget and will focus on event controlling. The practical part carries theory into practice and deals with the organization of the event in the company TON in Chile. Based on a...

  20. Explosive Event in MON-3 Oxidizer System Resulting from Pressure Transducer Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David L.; Reynolds, Michael; Anderson, John

    2006-01-01

    In 2003, a Druck(Registered Trademark) pressure transducer failed catastrophically in a test system circulating nitrogen tetroxide at NASA Johnson Space Center White Sands Test Facility. The cause of the explosion was not immediately obvious since the wetted areas of the pressure transducer were constructed of materials compatible with nitrogen tetroxide. Chemical analysis of the resulting residue and a materials analysis of the diaphragm and its weld zones were used to determine the chain of events that led to the catastrophic failure. Due to excessive dynamic pressure loading in the test system, the diaphragm in the pressure transducer suffered cyclic failure and allowed the silicon oil located behind the isolation diaphragm to mix with the nitrogen tetroxide. The reaction between these two chemicals formed a combination of 2,4-di and 2,4,6-trinitrophenol, which are shock sensitive explosives that caused the failure of the pressure transducer. Further research indicated numerous manufacturers offer similar pressure transducers with silicone oil separated from the test fluid by a thin stainless steel isolation diaphragm. Caution must be exercised when purchasing a pressure transducer for a particular system to avoid costly failures and test system contamination.

  1. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  2. Catastrophizing, Functional Disability and Pain Reports in Adults with Chronic Low Back Pain

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that subjective reports of pain severity, pain intensity and functional disability correlate positively with catastrophizing.PATIENTS: Adults with chronic low back pain for six months or longer presenting to a tertiary care Pain Management Unit.METHODS: Catastrophizing was measured with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) in 40 subjects (23 males, 17 females). Functional disability was measured with the Pain Disability Index and pain severity/intensity was q...

  3. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  4. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  5. Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačev-Zavišić Branka

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4 and triiodothyronine (T3. Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency. The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger autoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction, is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consequences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima. The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  6. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  7. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis.Results: Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Manage­ment aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information manage­ment. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. Conclusion: The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  8. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  9. Agricultural Mechanism of Spreading Catastrophe Risk in China and Legislation Conception

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces agricultural catastrophe and its characteristics,and conducts comparative analysis on existing mechanism of spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,indicating that the mechanism of administrative remedy has the greatest efficiency and highest cost;the mechanism of social assistance has the lowest cost,but its efficiency is lowest and there are unstable factors;market mechanism,namely the insurance of agricultural catastrophe,is the rational choice of agricultural department in mechanism of risk spreading.This paper analyzes the status quo of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe,indicating that the main body of management in China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is missing.In addition,the market demand is critically scanty,and insurance of agricultural catastrophe lacks external development environment.The gap of China’s insurance law of agricultural catastrophe has become the greatest obstacle to the development of insurance of agricultural catastrophe.From legislative purpose,basic principle,nature,main body of legal relations,management range,policy support,supervision and management and so on,the legislation conception of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is put forward.

  10. Event marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Quynh Trang

    2008-01-01

    This study aims to analyze event-marketing activities of the small firm and propose new events. At first the theoretical part describes marketing and communication mix and then especially planning and development of event marketing campaign. Research data were collected by the method of survey to propose the new events. Randomly selected customers were asked to fill the questionnaire. Its results were integrated into the proposal of the new events. The interview was realized with the owner of...

  11. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Pavléková, Markéta

    2013-01-01

    The main theme of the work is event management, which deals with the social events of various types. Event as a mean of communication is a common part of business strategy today and the organization became a separate industry. Procedures how to implement successful event are the essential part of the work. Organizationally demanding activity of event managers, which includes planning, organizing, staffing, leadership and control is supported by marketing activities, which are described in the...

  12. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Michňa, Michal

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of this thesis deals with event management in general. The stress of its theoretical part is put on relation between event management and the other communication channels usually used by marketing experts in a firm. There is also described a confrontation of event management with processes which are basically used in project management. The theoretical part is mainly concerned with event management and organisation of events. There is a deep description of its prepara...

  13. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Vomáčková, Kateřina

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with event management from theory to practice. First part of the thesis consists of literature review of this topic – from definition of basic terms, through event management’s classification in marketing of a company, to description of different stages of event management process. The second part of the thesis is based on practice – an agency that organized for the third year an event focusing on children and sport, is presented here. Last year of this event including...

  14. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  15. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Palkosková, Barbora

    2011-01-01

    The diploma thesis deals with a term of event management and its connection to the event marketing. First part of the work focuses on terms that are superior to event management and those are marketing and marketing mix of 4P´s. Communication mix is than separated into smaller parts, defining the position of event marketing and management among them. Accent is put on the current possibilities of typology and separation of event and its practical use. Issue of events is connected to the...

  16. Study on the safety during transport of radioactive materials. Pt. 4. Events during transport. Final report work package 6; Untersuchungen zur Sicherheit bei der Befoerderung radioaktiver Stoffe. T. 4. Ereignisse bei der Befoerderung. Abschlussbericht zum Arbeitspaket 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sentuc, Florence-Nathalie

    2014-09-15

    This report presents the results from a data collection and an evaluation of the safety significance of events in the transportation of radioactive material by all modes on public routes in Germany. Systems for reporting and evaluation of the safety significance of events encountered in the transport of radioactive material are a central element in monitoring and judging the adequacy and effectiveness of the transport regulations and their underlying safety philosophy, this allows for revision by experience feedback (lessons learned). The nationwide survey performed covering the period from the mid 1990s through 2013 identified and analysed a total of 670 transport events varying in type and severity. The vast majority of recorded transport events relate to minor deviations from the provisions of the transport regulations (e.g. improper markings and error in transport documents) or inappropriate practices and operational procedures resulting in material damage of packages and equipment such as handling incidents. Severe traffic accidents and fires represented only a small fraction (ca. 3 percent) of the recorded transport events. Four transport events were identified in the reporting period to have given rise to environmental radioactive releases. Three transport events have reportedly resulted in minor radiation exposures to the transport personnel; in one case an exposure in excess of the statutory annual dose limit for the public seems possible. Based on the EVTRAM scale, with seven significance levels, the broad majority of transport events has been classified as ''non-incidents'' (Level 0) and ''events without affecting the safety functions of the package'' (Level 1). On the INES scale most transport events would be classified as events with ''no safety significance'' (Below Scale/Level 0). The survey results show no serious deficiencies in the transport of radioactive material, supporting the

  17. [Christopher Columbus flu. A hypothesis for an ecological catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Sanz, Agustín

    2006-05-01

    When Christopher Columbus and his men embarked on the second Colombian expedition to the New World (1493), the crew suffered from fever, respiratory symptoms and malaise. It is generally accepted that the disease was influenza. Pigs, horses and hens acquired in Gomera (Canary Islands) traveled in the same ship. The pigs may well have been the origin of the flu and the intermediary hosts for genetic recombination of other viral subtypes. The Caribbean archipelago had a large population of birds, the natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus. In this ecological scenario there was a concurrence of several biological elements that had never before coexisted in the New World: pigs, horses, the influenza virus and humans. We propose that birds are likely to have played an important role in the epidemiology of the flu occurring on the second Colombian trip, which caused a fatal demographic catastrophe, with an estimated mortality of 90% among the natives. PMID:16762260

  18. Rotation-Dependent Catastrophic Disruption of Gravitational Aggregates

    CERN Document Server

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R

    2014-01-01

    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotat...

  19. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Brummitt, Charles D; D'Souza, Raissa M

    2014-01-01

    A profoundly important challenge in several disciplines today is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. We characterize these phenomena using a simple model grounded in the theory of fast--slow ordinary differential equations and in catastrophe theory. In the model, a system consists of multiple subsystems (e.g., countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem), each described by a scalar quantity (such as economic output or population) that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantities (e.g., trade couples economic output, diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves their bifurcations. The model elucidates two ways in which sudden changes can propaga...

  20. Industrial arsenic contamination causes catastrophic changes in freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guangjie; Shi, Haibin; Tao, Jianshuang; Chen, Li; Liu, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Xiaohai; Smol, John P.

    2015-11-01

    Heavy metal pollution is now widely recognized to pose severe health and environmental threats, yet much of what is known concerning its adverse impacts on ecosystem health is derived from short-term ecotoxicological studies. Due to the frequent absence of long-term monitoring data, little is known of the long-tem ecological consequences of pollutants such as arsenic. Here, our dated sediment records from two contaminated lakes in China faithfully document a 13.9 and 21.4-fold increase of total arsenic relative to pre-1950 background levels. Concurrently, coherent responses in keystone biota signal pronounced ecosystem changes, with a >10-fold loss in crustacean zooplankton (important herbivores in the food webs of these lake systems) and a >5-fold increase in a highly metal-tolerant alga. Such fundamental ecological changes will cascade through the ecosystem, causing potentially catastrophic consequences for ecosystem services in contaminated regions.

  1. Catastrophic chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ek Han; Henry, Isabelle M; Ravi, Maruthachalam; Bradnam, Keith R; Mandakova, Terezie; Marimuthu, Mohan Pa; Korf, Ian; Lysak, Martin A; Comai, Luca; Chan, Simon Wl

    2015-01-01

    Genome instability is associated with mitotic errors and cancer. This phenomenon can lead to deleterious rearrangements, but also genetic novelty, and many questions regarding its genesis, fate and evolutionary role remain unanswered. Here, we describe extreme chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination, a process resulting from hybridization of Arabidopsis plants expressing different centromere histones H3. Shattered chromosomes are formed from the genome of the haploid inducer, consistent with genomic catastrophes affecting a single, laggard chromosome compartmentalized within a micronucleus. Analysis of breakpoint junctions implicates breaks followed by repair through non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) or stalled fork repair. Furthermore, mutation of required NHEJ factor DNA Ligase 4 results in enhanced haploid recovery. Lastly, heritability and stability of a rearranged chromosome suggest a potential for enduring genomic novelty. These findings provide a tractable, natural system towards investigating the causes and mechanisms of complex genomic rearrangements similar to those associated with several human disorders. PMID:25977984

  2. Eradicating Catastrophic Collapse in Interdependent Networks via Reinforced Nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xin; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    In interdependent networks, it is usually assumed, based on percolation theory, that nodes become nonfunctional if they lose connection to the network giant component. However, in reality, some nodes, equipped with alternative resources, together with their connected neighbors can still be functioning once disconnected from the giant component. Here we propose and study a generalized percolation model that introduces a fraction of reinforced nodes in the interdependent networks that can function and support their neighborhood. We analyze, both analytically and via simulations, the order parameter$-$the functioning component$-$comprising both the giant component and smaller components that include at least one reinforced node. Remarkably, we find that for interdependent networks, we need to reinforce only a small fraction of nodes to prevent abrupt catastrophic collapses. Moreover, we find that the universal upper bound of this fraction is 0.1756 for two interdependent Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi (ER) networks, regula...

  3. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    CERN Document Server

    Wurster, James; Bate, Matthew R

    2015-01-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionisation fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionisation chemistry assuming 0.1 micron grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13AU ca...

  4. Catastrophe analysis on pillar instability considered mining effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    The instability of the pillar was discussed based on the potential energy principle and the cusp catastrophe theory, and a simplified mechanical model of the pillar was established considering the mining effect. The necessary-sufficient conditions, the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were deduced. The results show that the instability of the pillar is related to the properties of the rock, the external force and the relative stiffness of the elastic area to the plastic area. The instability of system is like to occur with the enlarging of the softening area or the decreasing of E/λ. The calculation done shows that the estimated results correspond to practical experience.

  5. CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL OF INSTABILITY OF PILLAR IN ASYMMETRIC MINING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    A simplified mechanical model of pillar-hang wall was established in asymmetric mining and instability of the system was discussed by means of potential energy principle and cusp catastrophe theory. The necessary-sufficient condition and the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were derived,which established foundation for quantifying of the instability of system. The results show that instability of the system is related to load and its stiffness distribution. The critical load increases with the increasing relative stiffness, and the system is more stable. On the contrary, the instability of system is likely to occur, and the released energy is larger in instability process, and the harm is more tremendous accordingly.Furthermore, an example was calculated, and the estimated results are in good agreement with the practical experience, which provide basis for mining order and arranging stope.

  6. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  7. Cylinder on an incline as a fold catastrophe system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The motion of a cylinder on an inclined plane, acted upon by a torque along its axis, is studied theoretically and experimentally. It is shown that the potential for the centre-of-mass exhibits the features of a fold catastrophe potential, the control parameter being related to the strength of the torque. This parameter determines whether or not the system experiences stable equilibrium positions. If it does, and depending on the initial conditions, it may perform oscillations around an equilibrium position, or it may cross a no-return point and roll down. A cylinder with a magnet inside, placed on an inclined plane in a region where a uniform magnetic field is present, is a real example of such a system. We constructed that system and report the data obtained in a set of experiments

  8. Surviving protein quality control catastrophes--from cells to organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Kim; Bertolotti, Anne

    2015-11-01

    Organisms have evolved mechanisms to cope with and adapt to unexpected challenges and harsh conditions. Unfolded or misfolded proteins represent a threat for cells and organisms, and the deposition of misfolded proteins is a defining feature of many age-related human diseases, including the increasingly prevalent neurodegenerative diseases. These protein misfolding diseases are devastating and currently cannot be cured, but are hopefully not incurable. In fact, the aggregation-prone and potentially harmful proteins at the origins of protein misfolding diseases are expressed throughout life, whereas the diseases are late onset. This reveals that cells and organisms are normally resilient to disease-causing proteins and survive the threat of misfolded proteins up to a point. This Commentary will outline the limits of the cellular resilience to protein misfolding, and discuss the possibility of pushing these limits to help cells and organisms to survive the threat of misfolding proteins and to avoid protein quality control catastrophes. PMID:26483388

  9. Vegetative disthonic syndrome treatment in children, suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegetative diatonic syndrome was diagnosed in 28,3% of children, arrived to sanatorium from the regions, suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe. In order to make correction of this kind of pathology 62 children had undergone the treatment on the base of specially developed programs: 1-st - complex of spirulina reception, infrared radiation treatment, collar-neck zone massage, 2-nd - glycine reception and collar-neck zone massage, 3-d - short wave frequency therapy on active points (control group - 37 children). As the result, in children of the main group in comparison with control, for certain decreased somatic complains quantity (p=0,008), neurological state (p=0,0009) and autonomic system state (p=0,05) improved. Thus the suggested complexes exert gentle influence upon mane autonomic system characteristics and promote subsidence of clinical manifestation of the vegetative diatonic syndrome. (Authors)

  10. A review of the techniques used for modeling single-event effects in power MOSFET's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heavy ions can trigger catastrophic failure modes in power metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFET's). Single-event effects (SEE), namely, single-event burnout (SEB), and single-event gate rupture (SEGR), of power MOSFET's are catastrophic failure mechanisms that are initiated by the passage of a heavy ion through the device structure. Various analytical, semianalytical, and simulation models have been developed to help explain these phenomena. This paper presents a review of these models and explains their merits and limitations. New results are included to illustrate the approaches

  11. Emergence of event cascades in inhomogeneous networks

    CERN Document Server

    Onaga, Tomokatsu

    2016-01-01

    There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the systems exhibit catastrophic chain reactions if the interaction represented by the ratio of reproduction exceeds unity; however, their subthreshold states for the case of the weaker interaction are not fully understood. Here, we report that these systems are possessed by nonstationary cascades of event-occurrences already in the subthreshold regime. Event cascades can be harmful in some contexts, when the peak-demand causes vaccine shortages, heavy traffic on communication lines, frequent crimes, or large fluctuations in nuclear reactions, but may be beneficial in other contexts, such that spontaneous activity in neural networks may be used to generate motion or store memory. Thus it is important to comprehend the mechanism by which such cascades appear, and consider controlli...

  12. The Chernobyl catastrophe is the most terrible civil nuclear incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The 4th nuclear reactor of the Chernobyl NPP exploded on 26 April 1986, 20 years ago. It's the most terrible nuclear civil accident of all times. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident led to contamination of 3,1 million ha of arable land, 1,5 million ha of natural pasture land, 3,5 million ha of forests and changed the lifestyle for millions of people in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. It is well known that the mortality in the contaminated areas (infant mortality by cancer) drastically increased. The Chernobyl catastrophe is presented , such as a sad example for humanity, a complex political international, economical, social and, particular, ecological problem according to the traditional and new studies for the development of the nucleotide contaminated territories: 1. Financing of safety of stopped working 4th nuclear reactor (security of covering system) and of work another 3 blocks at the Chernobyl NPP. Detailed control of international financial support for guarantee the safety, security of the Chernobyl NPP and sustainable development for rehabilitation of the affected zones and people. 2. It should be marked increase in medical, demographic analysis and in social, economical protection of the people in the contaminated areas. 3. Analysis and synthesis, monitoring of the long-time data results due to environmental, ecological, social and political consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. 4. Protection from the possible terrorist (extra) actions and (inter) damage or incident function of the Chernobyl plant, such as an old generation nuclear power. 5. Planned budget for future studies in the affected territories and flexibility actually realization of budget (State and International). 6. Nuclear refuse and aria/water protection in the Ukraine, Belarus and Russia contaminated zones. 7. Risk evaluation of not good function of NPPs which are situated in Russia, Ukraine and in another places (always remembering that the Chernobyl catastrophe is the

  13. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  14. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investig

  15. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investiga

  16. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张亚平; 裴玉龙

    2004-01-01

    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  17. Analysis of Interlayer Connection Catastrophe Characteristics in Internet AS level Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-yuan Jia

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on CAIDA’s (cooperative association for Internet data analysis statistics at AS-level collected from April 2009 to April 2010, it is found that network size, degree correlations and clustering have changed significantly three times. According to the definition of k-core, the Internet topology is divided into different levels. In this paper, by analyzing the changing connection on each level at the three time spots, we found that the connection difference between the highest and the lowest level varies cyclically. Before Internet has significant change, the connection difference between the highest and the lowest shell changes acutely. At that time point it is the later stage of the fluctuation period which is the accumulation of small fluctuation. The concept of catastrophe coefficient is proposed for quantifying the probability of Internet catastrophe so that the catastrophe coefficient of Internet could be calculated on real time, and the catastrophe time spots could be predicted. Using real data for verification, it turns out that catastrophe coefficient can accurately predict the "giant fluctuations" occurrence in the macroscopic structure. With the proposal of the concept of catastrophe coefficient, the research can play an important guiding role in understanding the actual network internal development and changes, analyzing the cause of Internet catastrophe, preventing devastating catastrophe, planning and further re-designing Ipv6.

  18. Household Catastrophic Healthcare Expenditure and Impoverishment Due to Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Requiring Hospitalization in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Loganathan, T; Lee, WS; Lee, KF; Jit, M.; Ng, CW

    2015-01-01

    Background While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. Objectives We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. Methods A...

  19. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit...

  20. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk financing and Pooled Insurance Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Pollner, John D

    2001-01-01

    This report examines the constraints and opportunities in implementing a catastrophe insurance system which can resolve the key obstacles impeding broader implementation of a risk funding approach. The four main pillars in such a strategy involve: 1) strengthening insurance sector regulatory requirements and supervision; 2) establishing broad-based pooled catastrophe funding structures wit...

  1. Morphological and historical resilience to catastrophic flooding: The case of Lockyer Creek, SE Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryirs, Kirstie; Lisenby, Peyton; Croke, Jacky

    2015-07-01

    This study aimed to determine the extent of geomorphic change resulting from the catastrophic flood of 2011 in the Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland and to place these impacts within a history of geomorphic adjustment. Aerial photographs dated from 1933 to 2011 and parish maps and historical on-ground photographs dating from 1865 to 1966 were examined for evidence of geomorphic adjustment since European settlement in the first half of the nineteenth century. Eleven forms of geomorphic adjustment were identified in three categories; erosional, depositional, and reorganisational. Only 26% of the Lockyer Creek channel length has been affected by some form of geomorphic adjustment since European settlement. Most of this adjustment was localised and dominated by reorganisation of geomorphic unit assemblages within the macrochannel and sediment deposition on floodplains. No wholesale river change in the form of lateral migration or avulsion has occurred, and the river's morphology has remained relatively characteristic over time (i.e., morphology remains relatively uniform in a reach-averaged sense). Geomorphic responses to extreme flooding have been minor, and the geomorphic effectiveness of floods in this system (including the 2011 flood) has been limited over the last several hundred years. The system is likely still adjusting to past flooding events that 'set' the morphology of the current system (i.e., the macrochannel). A form of event resilience has resulted in this system such that it is less prone to geomorphic adjustment during events than would normally be considered geomorphically effective. As a result, antecedent controls on macrochannel presence and capacity are considered to be first-order controls on contemporary forms and processes in this system. Work is required to test whether the resilience of this system will hold in the future, with more extreme episodes of flooding predicted to occur in this region under future climate change.

  2. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Štefl, Petr

    2011-01-01

    This bachelor thesis on the topic of event management deals with planning, organizing, managing, monitoring and implementation of special social events, termed event. It explains what they mean by this term we can imagine and as you can in terms of typology to distinguish events. Literature review consists of the acquired theoretical knowledge in management, project management and marketing. It describes the principles and procedure in place, we should keep the successful organization of ...

  3. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Strýhalová, Veronika

    2013-01-01

    The Diploma thesis is focused on the Event management company, which organizes a big family minded sport day and describes its activity plan. The thesis consists three main parts, the first – the teoretic part specifices proffesional terms about an event management. This part also describes different event forms which are focused on the right selection and final strategy, the following control of financial situation and event overall what is in general a part of marketing mixture. The second ...

  4. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Stružková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is based on theoretical knowledge and analysis of the actual implementation event action in congress centre of 4*hotel. Asesment of importance, correctnesand effectivess of the vatious procedures of organizin events and create new complete schematic principle of organizin events Implementation actions will be considered from two sides – from side of the company organizer and from the side of event managment coordinator. All the outputs of these two aspect ...

  5. Catastrophic nanosecond laser induced damage in the bulk of potassium titanyl phosphate crystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, Frank R., E-mail: frank.wagner@fresnel.fr; Natoli, Jean-Yves; Akhouayri, Hassan; Commandré, Mireille [Institut Fresnel, CNRS, Aix-Marseille Université, Ecole Centrale Marseille, Campus de St Jérôme, 13013 Marseille (France); Duchateau, Guillaume [CELIA, UMR 5107 Université Bordeaux 1-CNRS-CEA, 351 Cours de la Libération, 33405 Talence Cedex (France)

    2014-06-28

    Due to its high effective nonlinearity and the possibility to produce periodically poled crystals, potassium titanyl phosphate (KTiOPO{sub 4}, KTP) is still one of the economically important nonlinear optical materials. In this overview article, we present a large study on catastrophic nanosecond laser induced damage in this material and the very similar RbTiOPO{sub 4} (RTP). Several different systematic studies are included: multiple pulse laser damage, multi-wavelength laser damage in KTP, damage resistance anisotropy, and variations of the laser damage thresholds for RTP crystals of different qualities. All measurements were carried out in comparable experimental conditions using a 1064 nm Q-switched laser and some were repeated at 532 nm. After summarizing the experimental results, we detail the proposed model for laser damage in this material and discuss the experimental results in this context. According to the model, nanosecond laser damage is caused by light-induced generation of transient laser-damage precursors which subsequently provide free electrons that are heated by the same nanosecond pulse. We also present a stimulated Raman scattering measurement and confront slightly different models to the experimental data. Finally, the physical nature of the transient damage precursors is discussed and similarities and differences to laser damage in other crystals are pointed out.

  6. Yoga attitudes in chronic low back pain: Roles of catastrophizing and fear of movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combs, Martha A; Thorn, Beverly E

    2015-08-01

    Chronic low back pain is a significant public health problem and, although underused, yoga may be an effective complementary treatment. The current study examined associations of pain catastrophizing and fear of movement with attitudes toward yoga in adults with chronic low back pain. Participants completed three quantitative questionnaires assessing specific constructs: beliefs about yoga, fear of movement, and pain catastrophizing. A semi-structured in-person interview was then conducted to obtain specific pain-related information. Hierarchical regression and mediational analyses were used to test hypotheses. Consistent with the fear-avoidance model of chronic pain, catastrophizing and fear of movement were negatively associated with yoga attitudes. Specifically, fear of movement was a mediator between catastrophizing and attitudes toward yoga. Individuals with higher levels of catastrophizing and fear of movement may be less likely to consider a pain treatment involving physical movement. PMID:26256134

  7. Gérard Brugnot, 2008, Les Catastrophes Naturelles, Paris, Le Cavalier Bleu, 127 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Callens

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available La collection « idées reçues » se propose de faire le point sur les savoirs et les croyances à propos d’un thème donné. Le thème des « catastrophes naturelles » est présenté par Gérard Brugnot, qui commente 16 idées reçues sur ces risques majeurs, regroupées dans quatre chapitres : 1/ « il y a toujours eu des catastrophes naturelles, il y en aura toujours », 2/ « Des catastrophes vraiment toutes naturelles ? », 3/ « On peut réduire les effets des catastrophes naturelles », 4/ « Catastrophes n...

  8. Single Event Burnout in DC-DC Converters for the LHC Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claudio H. Rivetta et al.

    2001-09-24

    High voltage transistors in DC-DC converters are prone to catastrophic Single Event Burnout in the LHC radiation environment. This paper presents a systematic methodology to analyze single event effects sensitivity in converters and proposes solutions based on de-rating input voltage and output current or voltage.

  9. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List provides brief summaries of hundreds of safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Events are described under the categories: Bomb-related, Intrusion, Missing/Allegedly Stolen, Transportation-related, Tampering/Vandalism, Arson, Firearms-related, Radiological Sabotage, Non-radiological Sabotage, and Miscellaneous. Because of the public interest, the Miscellaneous category also includes events reported involving source material, byproduct material, and natural uranium, which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Information in the event descriptions was obtained from official NRC sources

  10. Analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The project is described as an analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure. Its scope extends both beyond previous statistical evaluations of the risk of catastrophic failure, beyond previous studies of human malfunction, and beyond current studies of probabilistic fracture mechanics. The latter deal only with 'normal' data and 'normal' processes and procedures according to established rules and regulations, where as the present study concerns deficiencies or more or less complete fallacies of normal procedures and processes. Hopefully such events will prove to be rare enough to be characterized as 'unique'; this, in turn, means that the result of the investigation is not a new statistical figure but rather a survey of types and frequencies of errors and error-producing conditions. The emphasis is on the main pressure vessel; related information on the primary circuit is included, only when this can be done without excessive effort or costs. The avenues of approach in terms of technical-academic disciplines are reliability techniques and the psychology of analysis work and control processes

  11. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  12. Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event. (author)

  13. Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event

  14. Ozone control of biological activity during Earth's history, including the KT catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, W. R.

    1994-01-01

    There have been brief periods since the beginning of the Cambrian some 600 m.y. ago when mass extinctions destroyed a significant fraction of living species. The most widely studied of these events is the catastrophe at the KT boundary that ended the long dominance of the dinosaurs. In addition to mass extinctions, there is another profound discontinuity in the history of Earth's biota, the explosion of life at the end of the Precambrian era which is an episode that is not explained well at all. For some 3 b.y. before the Cambrian, life had been present on Earth, but maintained a low level of activity which is an aspect of the biota that is puzzling, especially during the last two-thirds of that period. During the last 2 b.y. before the Cambrian, conditions at the Earth's surface were suitable for a burgeoning of the biota, according to most criteria: the oceans neither boiled nor were fozen solid during this time, and the atmosphere contained sufficient O for the development of animals. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mass extinctions and the lackluster behavior of the Precambrian biota share a common cause: an inadequate amount of ozone in the atmosphere.

  15. Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Yang, Yan; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Zhanqing

    2015-07-20

    Extreme events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, have become more frequent since the 1950s1-2. This is likely caused through changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols that perturb the radiative balance and alter cloud processes3-8. On 8-9 July, 2013 a catastrophic flood devastated several metropolitan areas at the foothills of the Sichuan Basin. Using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-chemistry model, we show that this disaster was not entirely natural. Ensemble simulations robustly show that the severe anthropogenic pollution in the Sichuan Basin significantly enhanced rainfall intensity over the mountainous area northwest of the basin. The heavy air pollution (mainly black carbon) absorbs solar radiation in the lower atmosphere at the expense of surface cooling, which stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection and precipitation over the basin. The enhanced moisture and moist static energy over the basin are then transported by the prevailing winds towards the mountains during daytime. As the excessive moist air that reaches the foothills at night is orographically lifted, very strong convection develops and produces extremely heavy precipitation. Reducing black carbon (BC) emissions in the basin can effectively mitigate the extreme precipitation in the mountains. Unfortunately, BC emissions have been increasing in many developing countries including China9, making them more vulnerable to enhanced disasters as reported here.

  16. Using open building data in the development of exposure data sets for catastrophe risk modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M.

    2016-02-01

    One of the necessary components to perform catastrophe risk modelling is information on the buildings at risk, such as their spatial location, geometry, height, occupancy type and other characteristics. This is commonly referred to as the exposure model or data set. When modelling large areas, developing exposure data sets with the relevant information about every individual building is not practicable. Thus, census data at coarse spatial resolutions are often used as the starting point for the creation of such data sets, after which disaggregation to finer resolutions is carried out using different methods, based on proxies such as the population distribution. While these methods can produce acceptable results, they cannot be considered ideal. Nowadays, the availability of open data is increasing and it is possible to obtain information about buildings for some regions. Although this type of information is usually limited and, therefore, insufficient to generate an exposure data set, it can still be very useful in its elaboration. In this paper, we focus on how open building data can be used to develop a gridded exposure model by disaggregating existing census data at coarser resolutions. Furthermore, we analyse how the selection of the level of spatial resolution can impact the accuracy and precision of the model, and compare the results in terms of affected residential building areas, due to a flood event, between different models.

  17. Gravothermal catastrophe in the framework of f(R) gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The anomalous rotation curves of spiral galaxies, the mass discrepancy in elliptical galaxies as well as in clusters of galaxies, are all well known observational aspects that led to the necessity of considering huge amounts of the so called dark matter at a galactic and extra-galactic scale. Relative to the mass discrepancy in the elliptical and in clusters of galaxies, the total mass can be estimated in two ways: I) by taking into account the motion of its members, the virial theorem provides MV , the so called virial mass; II) considering the total sum of each individual member's mass one may estimate the total baryonic mass MB. The mass discrepancy then arises when one verifies that MV is considerably greater than MB, typical values are MV / MB ∼ 20 - 30. There is nowadays a great debate about the mechanism behind this observed mass discrepancy. As long as the possibility that Einstein's and Newton's theories of gravity breaks down at galactic scale can not be excluded a priori, a number of galactic environment scenarios and modified gravity have been proposed in the literature. Perhaps the much simple of these models, f(R) gravity examines the possibility of modifying Einstein's general relativity by adding terms proportional to powers of the Ricci scalar R to the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian. Specific models of f(R) gravity were already examined in the literature which can explain the Pioneer anomaly and the flat rotation curves of spiral galaxies. As specified above, the virial theorem is in the core of the observed mass discrepancy. However, when one consider the virial theorem in the framework of f(R) gravity, supplementary geometric terms arise in the generalized Einstein's equations providing an effective contribution to the gravitational energy. Here we investigate how the total virial mass, which is proportional to the effective mass associated with the new geometrical term, affects the so called gravothermal catastrophe in the context of f

  18. Gravothermal catastrophe in the framework of f(R) gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Thiago B.R.F.; Santos, Janilo [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), RN (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    , affects the so called gravothermal catastrophe in the context of f(R) gravity. As is well known, the thermodynamics of self-gravitating systems shows a stable branch for negative specific heat, a phenomenon known as gravothermal catastrophe. This can be derived from the virial theorem applied to astrophysical systems and has important consequences for the stability of nuclear burning in the cores of stars. (author)

  19. Cataclysms and Catastrophes: A Case Study of Improving K-12 Science Education Through a University Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennell, T.; Ellins, K. K.; Morris, M.; Christeson, G.

    2003-12-01

    culmination to the classroom debate, we developed a curriculum module on Asteroids Impacts for the Cataclysms and Catastrophes project. This approach proved to be the ideal way to update the existing Planet Earth curriculum and to provide students with opportunities to use cutting-edge, hands-on geophysical and computer techniques to understand the most up-to-date science concerning the K-T extinction event.

  20. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  1. Events diary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    From 18 January until 28 March the 2000 IEE Faraday Lecture will be touring venues in the UK, aiming to inspire and encourage students to choose a career in science and engineering. The lecture tour is being supported by communications and IT company, Marconi, and it is being presented by University College London. Interactive experiments for the audience of 14 - 16 year-olds will combine with a multimedia presentation on the theme `Time and Place in the Communications Age', exploring our ability to make precise measurements of time, place and space and how these impact on our personal and business lives. Among the curious facts from the lecture is the discovery that Cornwall rises and falls by 20 cm every time the tide moves in and out. The whole of the UK rises and falls by 50 cm every time the Moon goes by and the UK is actually 20 m shorter than was thought ten years ago, before the Global Positioning Satellite system was in operation. Attendance at the lectures is free and schools interested in booking tickets should visit the Faraday website at www.faraday.org.uk . Further details of the tour are available from the Faraday Lecture Office, Institution of Electrical Engineers, Michael Faraday House, Six Hills Way, Stevenage, Herts SG1 2AY (tel: 01438 313311, fax: 01438 742856, e-mail: faraday@iee.org.uk ). Among the `Strands' on the programme at the 2000 Edinburgh international science festival on 2 - 18 April are: visions of the future; time; the natural world; new materials; science book festival; science film festival. Festival programmes should be available soon from the festival office at 8 Lochend Road, Edinburgh EH6 8BR (tel: 0131 530 2001, fax: 0131 530 2002, e-mail: esf@scifest.demon.co.uk ). BA2000 will be one of the key features of the `creating SPARKS' festival where the sciences meet the arts in London during 6 - 30 September. Centred on South Kensington, and led by the British Association, creating SPARKS will be staged at such famous institutions

  2. Combined injuries and their significance in catastrophic medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problems involved in combined injuries and their significance for catastrophe medicine are investigated in animal experiments. Rats and mice were irradiated under various conditions. In addition, they were subjected to further traumas such as wounds, application of chemotherapeuticals, stress, amongst others, in order to test these combined injuries. Certain pathological parameters such as the influence of these combined injuries on hematopoiesis, erythropoiesis, metabolic behaviour, histological investigations on organs, mortality, recovery phase were tested. It was thus shown that the dose and time dependence are of decisive importance. The effects of pure radiation injuries - compared to those injuries brought about by other parameters - generally do not give a summation of the injuries within the combined injuries. Rather, we find a very different effect picture of the combined injuries compared to the so-called 'single injuries'. The varying behaviour of the species is also remarkable so that one cannot directly relate these results to humans. The results clearly show that yet several animal species must be investigated in order to be able to draw conclusions regarding combined injuries in humans. (GSE)

  3. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  4. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  5. Vital signs: a banner year, barring political and economic catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barring political and economic catastrophes, key indicators in the oil and gas industry point to a good year in 2003. The optimistic forecast is based on strong commodity prices through the first quarter despite the anticipated military action in Iraq, strong land sale activity, capacity employment of drilling fleets and seriously depleted natural gas storage caverns across North America. In terms of well completions, Canada is looking for 17,500 completions in 2003, an 11 per cent increase over 2002. Crude markets are expected to be slightly weaker, but prices are expected to remain in the $27 to $29 range for many months to come, owing to the tight inventory situation throughout the western world. Similar fundamentals were responsible for strong performance by Canadian energy exporters in 2002, as shown by a number of statistical tables that form part of this article. Electricity prices are also expected to remain higher than in 2002, given that natural gas prices are high and snow packs lower than last year. FirstEnergy Capital Corporation pegged the Alberta power price to average $64.46 per megawatt-hour this year, up from $55.77 per megawatt-hour last year. tabs

  6. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. PMID:23763387

  7. Catastrophic debris avalanche deposit of Socompa volcano, northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, P. W.; Gardeweg, M.; Ramirez, C. F.; Rothery, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Between 10,000 and 500 yr ago the Socompa volcano in northern Chile experienced a catastrophic collapse of a 70 deg sector of the original cone, causing a debris avalanche that descended nearly 3000 m vertically and traveled more than 35 km from the volcano. The deposits cover some 490 sq km and have a minimum volume of 15 cu km. Parts of the original cone slumped in a nearly coherent form and are now preserved as large blocks more than 400 m high. The primary avalanche traveled northwestward over sloping ground before coming to rest transiently, forming a prominent marginal ridge, and then slid away northeastward to form a secondary flow, overriding much of the primary avalanche deposit. Abundant, prismatic, jointed dacite blocks within the debris avalanche deposit and a thin, fine-grained pumiceous deposit beneath it suggest that the collapse was triggered by magmatic activity and may have been accompanied by a violent lateral blast. Collapse was followed by eruption of pumiceous pyroclastic flows and extrusion of voluminous dacite domes.

  8. Reconciling the infrared catastrophe and observations of SN 2011fe

    CERN Document Server

    Fransson, Claes

    2015-01-01

    The observational effects of the 'Infrared Catastrophe' are discussed in view of the very late observations of the Type Ia SN 2011fe. Our model spectra at 1000d take non-local radiative transfer into account, and find that this has a crucial impact on the spectral formation. Although rapid cooling of the ejecta to a few 100 K occurs also in these models, the late-time optical/NIR flux is brighter by 1-2 magnitudes due to redistribution of UV emissivity, resulting from non-thermal excitation and ionization. This effect brings models into better agreement with late-time observations of SN 2011fe and other Type Ia supernovae, and offers a solution to the long standing discrepancy between models and observations. The models show that spectral formation shifts from Fe II and Fe III at 300d to Fe I at 1000d, which explains the apparent wavelength shifts seen in SN2011fe. We discuss effects of time dependence and energy input from 57Co, finding both to be important at 1000d.

  9. Quantum resonance catastrophe for conductance through a periodically driven barrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuberg, Daniel; Reyes, Sebastián A.; Eggert, Sebastian

    2016-05-01

    We consider the quantum conductance in a tight-binding chain with a locally applied potential which is oscillating in time. The steady state for such a driven impurity can be calculated exactly for any energy and applied potential using the Floquet formalism. The resulting transmission has a nontrivial, nonmonotonic behavior depending on incoming momentum, driving frequency, and the strength of the applied periodic potential. Hence there is an abundance of tuning possibilities, which allows finding the resonances of total reflection for any choice of incoming momentum and periodic potential. Remarkably, this implies that even for an arbitrarily small infinitesimal impurity potential it is always possible to find a resonance frequency at which there is a catastrophic breakdown of the transmission T =0 . The points of zero transmission are closely related to the phenomenon of Fano resonances at dynamically created bound states in the continuum. The results are relevant for a variety of one-dimensional systems where local AC driving is possible, such as quantum nanodot arrays, ultracold gases in optical lattices, photonic crystals, or molecular electronics.

  10. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  11. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurster, James; Price, Daniel J.; Bate, Matthew R.

    2016-03-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionization fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionization chemistry assuming 0.1 μm grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13 au can form even in strong magnetic when all three non-ideal terms are present, and a disc of 38 au can form when only the Hall effect is present; in both cases, a counter-rotating envelope forms around the first hydrostatic core. For weaker, anti-aligned fields, the Hall effect produces massive discs comparable to those produced in the absence of magnetic fields, suggesting that planet formation via gravitational instability may depend on the sign of the magnetic field in the precursor molecular cloud core.

  12. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    CERN Document Server

    Kliem, B; Forbes, T G; Priest, E R; Török, T

    2014-01-01

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  13. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kliem, B.; Lin, J. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Forbes, T. G. [Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824 (United States); Priest, E. R. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Török, T., E-mail: bkliem@uni-potdam.de [Predictive Science Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Rd., Ste 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  14. Vers une ontologie des risques et des catastrophes : le modèle conceptuel

    OpenAIRE

    Provitolo, Damienne; Dubos-Paillard, Edwige; Müller, Jean-Pierre

    2009-01-01

    Nous présentons une réflexion sur la construction d'une ontologie formalisée du domaine des risques et des catastrophes. L'objectif est de revenir sur les concepts essentiels permettant de caractériser le risque, l'accident, la catastrophe et les notions associées, et d'organiser ces concepts entre eux par des relations. Nous présentons donc le modèle conceptuel du domaine des risques et des catastrophes, modèle réalisé à partir des diagrammes de classe d'UML(Unified Modelling Language). Si l...

  15. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  16. Japan Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami in Fukushima Daiichi NPP; Is it Beyond Design Basis Accident or a Design Deficiency and Operator Unawareness?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On March 11, 2011 a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck the north east coast of Japan. This catastrophe damaged fully or partially the six units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.Questions were raised following the aftermath, whether it is beyond design basis accident caused by severe natural event or a failure by the Japanese authorities to plan to deal with such accident. There are many indications that the Utility of Fukushima Daiichi NPP, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), did not pay enough attention to numerous facts about the incompatibility of the site and several design defects in the plant units. In fact there are three other NPP sites nearby Fukushima Daiichi Plant (about 30 to 60 Km far from Fukushima Daiichi NPP), with different site characteristics, which survived the same catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, but they were automatically turned into a safe shutdown state. These plants sites are Fukushima Daini Plant (4 units), Onagawa Plant (3 units) and Tokai Daini (II) Plant (one unit). In this paper, the aftermath Fukushima Daiichi plant integrity is pointed out. Some facts about the site and design concerns which could have implications on the accident are discussed. The response of Japan Authority is outlined and some remarks about their actions are underlined. The impacts of this disaster on the Nuclear Power Program worldwide are also discussed.

  17. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...... temporarily from bookcases to borrowers. When we characterize events as change agents we focus on concepts like transactions, entity processes, and workflow processes....

  18. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics. We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...... temporarily from bookcases to borrowers. When we characterize events as change agents we focus on concepts like transactions, entity processes, and workflow processes....

  19. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  20. Law, State and the Politics of Catastrophes: a Critical Perspective on Epiphanies of Injustice and the Need for Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Nitrato Izzo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available While the phenomenon of catastrophes is emerging as a growing threat that humanity should face in the next years, legal studies have disregarded the issue for a long time. Recent extreme events have motivated a new attention towards the legal dimension as part of the context in which disasters take place. Catastrophes are a powerful breakdown of our normative world. Paradigms of regulation in this field have usually been identified in terms of prevention, anticipation and amelioration, theoretical schemes that can be applied to various branches of the law. Nevertheless, this is only a part of the challenge that the legal study of extreme events must face. They should in fact include into these abstract schemes the factors of inequality that contribute to producing higher rates of vulnerability. In this paper I propose to conceive catastrophes as legal epiphanies, through which it is possible to evaluate the effectiveness, the efficiency and the sustainability of regulatory choices. Mientras el fenómeno de las catástrofes se está convirtiendo en una amenaza cada vez mayor que la humanidad deberá afrontar en los próximos años, durante mucho tiempo los estudios jurídicos no lo han tenido en cuenta. Hechos extremos recientes han hecho que adquiera mayor relevancia la dimensión legal como parte del contexto en la que ocurren los desastres. Las catástrofes suponen una poderosa ruptura en la normativa de nuestro mundo. Los paradigmas de la regulación en este campo se han identificado generalmente en términos de prevención, anticipación y mejora, esquemas teóricos que se pueden aplicar a distintas ramas del derecho. Sin embargo, esto es sólo una parte del desafío que debe afrontar el estudio jurídico de los fenómenos extremos. En realidad, deberían tenerse en cuenta los factores de desigualdad que contribuyen a producir mayores ratios de vulnerabilidad. En este trabajo me propongo concebir las catástrofes como epifanías legales, a

  1. Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, also included are events reported involving byproduct material which is exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, alcohol and drugs, and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  2. Catastrophic Collapse of Particulate Clouds: Implications From Aggregation Experiments in the USML-1 and USML-2 Glovebox. Experiment 35

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, John; Freund, Friedemann; Sauke, Todd; Freund, Minoru

    1998-01-01

    Experiments with electrostatic aggregation of well-dispersed (nominally, mono-dispersed), freely suspended particles in the United States Microgravity Laboratory (USML) Glovebox have determined that filamentary aggregates are a universal product of grain interactions in relatively dense particulate clouds. Aggregate growth from the experimental particle clouds primarily involves dipole-dipole interactions for nonconducting materials; dipole interactions account for both attraction between grains as well as the cohesive force that maintains the integrity of the filamentary structures. When a cloud undergoes a turbulent-to-quiescent transition after damping of fluid and ballistic grain motions, aggregation occurs almost instantaneously and the cloud is transformed into a population of "heavier" clusters of material with organized electrical structures. This abrupt transformation could initiate catastrophic gravitational collapse of certain regions of particulate clouds, thus controlling the longevity and fate of cloud systems as diverse as protoplanetary dust disks and volcanic eruption plumes.

  3. Wavelength dependence of catastrophic optical damage threshold in 980nm semiconductor diode lasers

    OpenAIRE

    Lock, D; Sweeney, SJ; Adams, AR

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the wavelength dependence of the catastrophic optical damage current in 980nm lasers. Using high pressure and low temperature techniques, we find an intrinsic dependence of this threshold on wavelength.

  4. Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

  5. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  6. Mindfulness, functioning and catastrophizing after multidisciplinary pain management for chronic low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Emma Louise; Atherton, Rachel Jane; Robertson, Noelle; Walsh, David Andrew; Gillett, Raphael

    2012-03-01

    We examined mindfulness in people with chronic low back pain who were attending a multidisciplinary pain management programme. Participants completed questionnaires at baseline (n=116) and after a 3-month cognitive-behaviourally informed multidisciplinary intervention (n=87). Self-reported mindfulness was measured before and after the intervention, and relationships were explored between mindfulness, disability, affect and pain catastrophizing. Mindfulness increased following participation in the intervention, and greater mindfulness was predictive of lower levels of disability, anxiety, depression and catastrophizing, even when pain severity was controlled. Mediator analyses suggested that the relationship between mindfulness and disability was mediated by catastrophizing. It is possible that cognitive-behavioural interventions and processes can affect both catastrophizing and mindfulness. PMID:22240149

  7. Catastrophe plan for areas surrounding nuclear facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the FRG, the federal government is responsible for the construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as well as defence measures against the 'damaging effect of ionizing radiation'. The responsibility of guarding public safety and order from danger lies with the states. Catastrophe defense is a special part in this scope of duties. It guards against such interferences in public safety and order which, because of their extraordinary consequences and the necessity of specially organized defense, we call catastrophes. The duty of catastrophe defence is to prevent or alleviate immediate consequences for the population from high amounts of released radioactivity. This means that the catastrophe defence is equipped to prevent or aleviate so called non-stochastic damages, especially early damages, and to reduce individual risk

  8. Transient probabilities for a simple birth-death-immigration process under the influence of total catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall J. Swift

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available The transient probabilities for a simple birth-death-immigration process are considered. Catastrophes occur at a constant rate, and when they occur, reduce the population to size zero.

  9. Super-catastrophic disruption of asteroids at small perihelion distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce; Bottke, William F.; Beshore, Edward; Vokrouhlický, David; Delbò, Marco; Michel, Patrick

    2016-02-01

    Most near-Earth objects came from the asteroid belt and drifted via non-gravitational thermal forces into resonant escape routes that, in turn, pushed them onto planet-crossing orbits. Models predict that numerous asteroids should be found on orbits that closely approach the Sun, but few have been seen. In addition, even though the near-Earth-object population in general is an even mix of low-albedo (less than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) and high-albedo (more than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) asteroids, the characterized asteroids near the Sun typically have high albedos. Here we report a quantitative comparison of actual asteroid detections and a near-Earth-object model (which accounts for observational selection effects). We conclude that the deficit of low-albedo objects near the Sun arises from the super-catastrophic breakup (that is, almost complete disintegration) of a substantial fraction of asteroids when they achieve perihelion distances of a few tens of solar radii. The distance at which destruction occurs is greater for smaller asteroids, and their temperatures during perihelion passages are too low for evaporation to explain their disappearance. Although both bright and dark (high- and low-albedo) asteroids eventually break up, we find that low-albedo asteroids are more likely to be destroyed farther from the Sun, which explains the apparent excess of high-albedo near-Earth objects and suggests that low-albedo asteroids break up more easily as a result of thermal effects.

  10. Using Catastrophe-Linked Securities to Diversity Insurance Risk: A Financial Analysis of Cat Bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Henri Louberge; Evis Kellezi; Manfred Gilli

    1999-01-01

    Severe natural catastrophes in the early 1990s generated a lack of financial capacity in the catastrophe line of the global reinsurance market. The finance industry reacted to this situation by issuing innovative products designed to spread the excess risk more widely among international investors (risk securitization). The paper reviews these developments and emphasizes their significance with respect to the economic theory of risk exchanges. Special attention is devoted to the case of catas...

  11. Use of catastrophe risk models in assessing sovereign food security for risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Mohan; Hohl, Roman

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description...

  12. Financial Innovation in Property Catastrophe Reinsurance: The Convergence of Insurance and Capital Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Chichilnisky, Graciela

    1996-01-01

    The property catastrophe reinsurance industry faces a major challenge. Since 1989, climatic volatility has produced unprecedented insured losses of $43 billion, $18 billion of which were from Hurricane Andrew alone. A surge of insurer defaults and dramatic changes in capacity and pricing have followed in their wake. Catastrophic risks must be addressed with innovative financial approaches that bring the insurance industry closer to the securities industry. This article discusses the new f...

  13. Equilibrium balking strategies in the single server Markovian queue with catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Boudali, Olga

    2011-01-01

    We consider a Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural reward-cost structure. We study the balking behavior of the customers and derive the corresponding Nash equilibrium strategies.

  14. Modelling catastrophic risk in international equity markets: An extreme value approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application to leading markets, the letter finds that the Nikkei is more prone to catastrophic risk than the FTSE and Dow Jones Indexes.

  15. Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity of the German version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, K.; Sprott, H.; Mannion, A. F.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: In patients with chronic pain, catastrophizing is a significant determinant of self-rated pain intensity and disability. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was developed to assist with both treatment planning and outcome assessment; to date, no German version has been validated. METHODS: A cross-cultural adaptation of the PCS into German was carried out, strictly according to recommended methods. A questionnaire booklet containing the PCS, visual analogue scales (numeric rating s...

  16. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  17. Catastrophizing and fear of tinnitus predict quality of life in patients with chronic tinnitus

    OpenAIRE

    Cima, Rilana FF; Crombez, Geert; Vlaeyen, Johan WS

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: It is well established that catastrophic misinterpretations and fear are involved in the suffering and disability of patients with chronic pain. This study investigated whether similar processes explain suffering and disability in patients with chronic tinnitus. We hypothesized that patients who catastrophically (mis)interpret their tinnitus would be more fearful of tinnitus, more vigilant toward their tinnitus, and report less quality of life. Moreover, tinnitus-related fear was ...

  18. Household catastrophic health expenditure: evidence from Georgia and its policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoidze Akaki

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To quantify extent of catastrophic household health expenditures, determine factors influencing it and estimate Fairness in Financial Contribution (FFC index in Georgia to establish the baseline for expected reforms and contribute to the design and fine-tuning of the major reforms in health care financing initiated by the government mid-2007. Methods The research is based on the nationally representative Health Care Utilization and Expenditure survey conducted during May-June 2007, prior to preparing for new phase of implementation for the health care financing reforms. Households' catastrophic health expenditures were estimated according to the methodology proposed by WHO – Ke Xu 1. A logistic regression (logit model was used to predict probability of catastrophic health expenditure occurrence. Results In Georgia between 2000 and 2007 access to care for poor has improved slightly and the share of households facing catastrophic health expenditures have seemingly increased from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.7% in 2007. However, this variance may be associated with the methodological differences of the respective surveys from which the analysis were derived. The high level of the catastrophic health expenditure may be associated with the low share of prepayment in national health expenditure, adequate availability of services and a high level of poverty in the country. Major factors determining the financial catastrophe related to ill health were hospitalization, household members with chronic illness and poverty status of the household. The FFC for Georgia appears to have improved since 2004. Conclusion Reducing the prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure is a policy objective of the government, which can be achieved by focusing on increased financial protection offered to poor and expanding government financed benefits for poor and chronically ill by including and expanding inpatient coverage and adding drug benefits. This

  19. Childhood Trauma and Pain and Pain Catastrophizing in Adulthood: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study

    OpenAIRE

    Sansone, Randy A.; Watts, Daron A.; Wiederman, Michael W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Previous studies have indicated relationships between trauma in childhood and pain in adulthood, although some studies have reported no such relationships and challenge the methodologies of large-scale community samples. In this study involving a clinical sample, we examined relationships among (1) childhood trauma at ages 12 or younger, (2) rated pain for 3 time points in adulthood, and (3) pain catastrophizing (ie, catastrophic thoughts and feelings about pain).

  20. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  1. Using of catastrophe theory for processing of experimental results measured in low-temperature plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For acoustoplasma of CO2 laser the obtained family of dynamic volt-ampere characteristics for different modulation frequencies of the discharge current is described by catastrophe theory. We propose a method of processing the experimental results, which allows obtaining not only qualitative but also quantitative characteristics of the control parameters. The best agreement with experimental data is obtained for 'dovetail catastrophe'. The areas of changing of control parameters are determined

  2. Cusp catastrophe of symmetry breaking in two-component Bose-Einstein condensates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bifurcation analysis is applied to the spontaneous spatial symmetry breaking occurring in the ground state of two-component Bose-Einstein condensates. The cusp catastrophe describing the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation associated with the symmetry breaking is derived via the identification of the local curvature of the Gross-Pitaevskii energy functional. The bifurcation diagram and universal scaling laws for the eigenvalue and energy are obtained from the catastrophe function

  3. Implementation of a geodatabase of published and non-published data on the catastrophic Vaiont landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghirotti, M.; Genevois, R.; Superchi, L.; Floris, M.; Stead, D.

    2009-04-01

    On the 9th October 1963 a catastrophic landslide suddenly occurred on the southern slope of the Vaiont dam reservoir. A mass of approximately 270 million m3 collapsed into the reservoir generating a wave which overtopped the dam and hit the town of Longarone and other villages: almost 2000 people lost their lives. Numerous questions, legal, economic, societal, and scientific have accompanied its history, before and after October 9th 1963. Several investigations and attempted interpretations of the slope collapse have been carried out during the last 45 years, however a comprehensive explanation of both the triggering and the dynamics of the phenomenon has yet to be provided. Research on the Vaiont landslide, published in the international literature after 1963, can conveniently subdivided into the following: 1) papers based on geological and geomorphological data collected at the Vaiont site; 2) papers focussing on specific aspects including the geotechnical properties of the materials involved, the physical and rheological behavior of the failure mass and the varied methods of stability analysis applied in order to understand the factors involved in landslide initiation and development; 3) papers dealing with the Vaiont landslide in a more comprehensive way. The Vaiont landslide has significantly increased our understanding of the kinematics and dynamics of such catastrophic phenomena. However, much of the data on the Vaiont slide exists in a non-electronic hard copy format. A geodatabase on the Vaiont Slide has been developed, utilising and updating the information collected by Genevois & Ghirotti (2005). An electronic bibliography of all published papers, theses and non-published technical reports, and all available site data forms the core of a newly developed geodatabase on the Vaiont landslide. In addition, data on engineering geological mapping, topography, rock mechanics, groundwater and monitoring have been centralized in a GIS system to allow a re

  4. Catastrophic degradation of the interface of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon at high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeepkumar, Aiswarya; Mishra, Neeraj; Kermany, Atieh Ranjbar; Boeckl, John J.; Hellerstedt, Jack; Fuhrer, Michael S.; Iacopi, Francesca

    2016-07-01

    Epitaxial cubic silicon carbide on silicon is of high potential technological relevance for the integration of a wide range of applications and materials with silicon technologies, such as micro electro mechanical systems, wide-bandgap electronics, and graphene. The hetero-epitaxial system engenders mechanical stresses at least up to a GPa, pressures making it extremely challenging to maintain the integrity of the silicon carbide/silicon interface. In this work, we investigate the stability of said interface and we find that high temperature annealing leads to a loss of integrity. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy analysis shows a morphologically degraded SiC/Si interface, while mechanical stress measurements indicate considerable relaxation of the interfacial stress. From an electrical point of view, the diode behaviour of the initial p-Si/n-SiC junction is catastrophically lost due to considerable inter-diffusion of atoms and charges across the interface upon annealing. Temperature dependent transport measurements confirm a severe electrical shorting of the epitaxial silicon carbide to the underlying substrate, indicating vast predominance of the silicon carriers in lateral transport above 25 K. This finding has crucial consequences on the integration of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon and its potential applications.

  5. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  6. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  7. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  8. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed. PMID:15288400

  9. Relationships Between Refraining From Catastrophic Thinking, Repetitive Negative Thinking, and Psychological Distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Tomoko; Sugiura, Yoshinori

    2016-10-01

    Skills to refrain from catastrophic thinking were negatively related to worry and a wide range of psychological distress. Repetitive negative thinking (including worry) is proposed as a common etiological factor for a wide range of psychological distress. Therefore, reduced repetitive negative thinking would mediate the negative relation between refraining from catastrophic thinking and psychological distress (depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsessions and compulsions). As an overlap between five indices of psychological distress was expected, we first computed latent factors underlying them, which were then predicted by refraining from catastrophic thinking and repetitive negative thinking. Cross-sectional questionnaire data from 125 nonclinical voluntarily participating students (M age = 19.0 years, SD = 3.6; 54% women) supported the predictions: refraining from catastrophic thinking was negatively correlated with depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsession and compulsion. Repetitive negative thinking mediated the negative relationship between refraining from catastrophic thinking and latent factors underlying psychological distress (Fear and Distress). Refraining from catastrophic thinking may be negatively correlated with psychological distress due to its negative relation to repetitive negative thinking. PMID:27511967

  10. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  11. Polymorphism in serotonin receptor 3B is associated with pain catastrophizing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Horjales-Araujo

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a coping style characterized by excessively negative thoughts and emotions in relation to pain, is one of the psychological factors that most markedly predicts variability in the perception of pain; however, only little is known about the underlying neurobiology. The aim of this study was to test for associations between psychological variables, such as pain catastrophizing, anxiety and depression, and selected polymorphisms in genes related to monoaminergic neurotransmission, in particular serotonin pathway genes. Three hundred seventy-nine healthy participants completed a set of psychological questionnaires: the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory, and were genotyped for 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in nine genes. The SNP rs1176744 located in the serotonin receptor 3B gene (5-HTR3B was found to be associated with pain catastrophizing scores: both the global score and the subscales of magnification and helplessness. This is the first study to show an association between 5-HTR3B and PCS scores, thus suggesting a role of the serotonin pathway in pain catastrophizing. Since 5-HTR3B has previously been associated with descending pain modulation pathways, future studies will be of great interest to elucidate the molecular pathways involved in the relation between serotonin, its receptors and pain catastrophizing.

  12. Scaling single-state variable catastrophe functions: an application to two-phase natural circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper I present transformation laws to scale physical processes governed by polynomial equations. Of particular importance is the class of polynomials which describe catastrophe functions. Many important, stability-related, thermal hydraulic phenomena are described by these catastrophe functions, including flooding, two-phase natural circulation, and critical heat flux. Catastrophe functions can be used to define the boundaries of stable system behavior. If a process evolves such that one of these boundaries are crossed, it will undergo a discontinuity which radically alters its evolution (i.e. morphogenesis). By scaling these catastrophe functions, processes exhibiting discontinuous behavior can be studied in scaled test models rather than experimenting with a full-scale, and typically very expensive, prototype. To illustrate their usefulness, the catastrophe function transformation laws are applied to the practical problem of scaling two-phase fluid natural circulation. In addition, the catastrophe manifold for two-phase fluid natural circulation is developed and evaluated to obtain a criterion for the onset of flow instability. ((orig.))

  13. EVENT SEGMENTATION

    OpenAIRE

    Zacks, Jeffrey M.; Swallow, Khena M.

    2007-01-01

    One way to understand something is to break it up into parts. New research indicates that segmenting ongoing activity into meaningful events is a core component of ongoing perception, with consequences for memory and learning. Behavioral and neuroimaging data suggest that event segmentation is automatic and that people spontaneously segment activity into hierarchically organized parts and sub-parts. This segmentation depends on the bottom-up processing of sensory features such as movement, an...

  14. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Plechatý, Josef

    2012-01-01

    This theses focused on Event management is divided into two parts. First part includes theoretical knowledge while the second part is strictly practical. The first part is focused on marketing, its importance and basic terms. The chapter about marketing is followed by marketing mix, which is shortly characterized and divided into advertisement, sales promotion, public relations and other elements of the communication mix. The last part is a detailed study of Event marketing which includes th...

  15. Sensitization of catastrophic cognition in cognitive-behavioral therapy for panic disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kataoka Miyako

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive model of panic disorder have proposed that panic attacks result from the catastrophic misinterpretation of certain bodily sensations. Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT for panic disorder aims to change these catastrophic cognitions. CBT intervention successfully caused reduction of catastrophic cognitions and symptomatic improvement in the majority of cases. However there are some patients who fail to modify their catastrophic cognitions or rather experience an increase in them during CBT treatment. It is clinically and theoretically important to understand about cognitive sensitization of panic disorder during CBT sessions. The purpose of the present study is 1 to clarify the baseline characteristics of panic patients who would experience sensitization of their catastrophic cognitions through the CBT treatment, and 2 to examine the course of symptomatic changes for them. Methods Of ninety-five outpatients with panic disorder started the group CBT program for treatment of panic disorder, seventy-nine completer were classified as "cognitively sensitized (CS" or "cognitive responding (CR" or "no-responder" according to the difference of the Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire score across treatment. We compared the CS and CR patients in terms of their baseline clinical characteristics. Then we assessed the symptomatic and functional changes for both groups. Results At the start of the CBT program, despite of the same degree of panic disorder severity, CS scored significantly lower on ACQ score than CR. CS also showed significantly lower score on anticipatory anxiety compared to CR. At the end of treatment CS showed significant improvement in severity of panic disorder, although the degree of improvement was smaller than that for CR. Then CS would progressively reduce their agoraphobic fear and avoidance, and would improve their functional impairment up to three month of follow-up. Conclusion Panic patients who would

  16. Chronic and catastrophic natural mortality of three common Caribbean reef corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bythell, J. C.; Gladfelter, E. H.; Bythell, M.

    1993-11-01

    Compared to catastrophic impacts from storms, disease epidemics and bleaching events, little is known about the effects of more routine chronic mortality in reef corals. To monitor this ongoing mortality, monthly visual assessments of the cause of tissue damage were related to mortality rates (changes in planar surface area) of tagged colonies of three common reef corals: Montastrea annularis, Porites astreoides and Diploria strigosa at Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. During the study Hurricane Hugo, the most powerful cyclone to affect the area in at least 60 y, made a direct impact on the site. Effects of the hurricane were extremely localized, with certain exposed sites being almost completely razed while others showed no detectable changes in community structure. Mortality caused both by the hurricane and by other factors during the 26 month study varied between species and also between site locations around the island. Differences in susceptibility were not dependent solely on gross morphology, because two robust, massive species showed opposite responses to hurricane damage and chronic mortality. Diploria strigosa was virtually unaffected by chronic factors, but was heavily damaged at exposed sites during the hurricane. In contrast, mortality from predation and tissue necrosis was high in Montastrea annularis, but it largely escaped damage from the hurricane because it was absent from the most severely scoured locations. Porites astreoides, with populations dominated by much smaller colonies, was affected by both chronic and hurricanerelated mortality. Differences in susceptibility to the various types of natural disturbance among species, coupled with high spatial and temporal variability in the effects of such disturbances, may be critical to the maintenance of species diversity on the reef.

  17. Kinesin-12 motors cooperate to suppress microtubule catastrophes and drive the formation of parallel microtubule bundles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drechsler, Hauke; McAinsh, Andrew D

    2016-03-22

    Human Kinesin-12 (hKif15) plays a crucial role in assembly and maintenance of the mitotic spindle. These functions of hKif15 are partially redundant with Kinesin-5 (Eg5), which can cross-link and drive the extensile sliding of antiparallel microtubules. Although both motors are known to be tetramers, the functional properties of hKif15 are less well understood. Here we reveal how single or multiple Kif15 motors can cross-link, transport, and focus the plus-ends of intersecting microtubules. During transport, Kif15 motors step simultaneously along both microtubules with relative microtubule transport driven by a velocity differential between motor domain pairs. Remarkably, this differential is affected by the underlying intersection geometry: the differential is low on parallel and extreme on antiparallel microtubules where one motor domain pair becomes immobile. As a result, when intersecting microtubules are antiparallel, canonical transport of one microtubule along the other is allowed because one motor is firmly attached to one microtubule while it is stepping on the other. When intersecting microtubules are parallel, however, Kif15 motors can drive (biased) parallel sliding because the motor simultaneously steps on both microtubules that it cross-links. These microtubule rearrangements will focus microtubule plus-ends and finally lead to the formation of parallel bundles. At the same time, Kif15 motors cooperate to suppress catastrophe events at polymerizing microtubule plus-ends, raising the possibility that Kif15 motors may synchronize the dynamics of bundles that they have assembled. Thus, Kif15 is adapted to operate on parallel microtubule substrates, a property that clearly distinguishes it from the other tetrameric spindle motor, Eg5. PMID:26969727

  18. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Hewitt

    2012-03-01

    vie quotidienne des peuples montagnards, les catastrophes environnementales sont bien souvent dépendantes d’autres formes sociales de risque, de vulnérabilité et d’une insécurité corollaire. Pour conclure, la marginalisation des espaces montagnards reste avant tout la conséquence du développement socio-économique de ces territoires, dont les paramètres dépendent des stratégies de développement de l’État et des acteurs métropolitains et internationaux.This chapter presents a view of risk and disaster in the mountains that finds them fully a part of public safety issues in modern states and developments, rather than separated from them. This contrasts with prevailing approaches to disaster focused on natural hazards, “unscheduled” or extreme events, and emergency preparedness; approaches strongly reinforced by mountain stereotypes. Rather, we find the legacies of social and economic histories, especially relations to down-country or metropolitan actors, are decisive in shaping contemporary “mountain realities”. Developments in transportation, resource extraction and tourism that serve state and international agendas can increase rather than reduce risks for mountain populations, and undermine pre-existing strategies to minimise environmental dangers. Above all, we see rapid urbanisation in mountains generally and the Himalaya in particular as highly implicated in exacerbating risks and creating new types of vulnerabilities. Enforced displacement, and concentration of, people in urban agglomerations, is a major part of the modern history of mountain lands that invites more careful exploration. Rapid expansion of built environments and infrastructure, without due regard to hazards and structural safety, introduce new and complex risks, while altering older equations with and to the land and sapping people’s resilience. In the lives of mountain people, environmental hazards are mostly subordinate to other, societal sources of risk and

  19. How tough is tuff in the event of fire?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavallée, Y.; Heap, M. J.; Laumann, A.; Hess, K.-U.; Meredith, P. G.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2012-04-01

    Tuff has been extensively used as a building material in volcanically and tectonically active areas over many centuries, despite its inherent low strength. A common and unfortunate secondary hazard accompanying both major volcanic eruptions and tectonic earthquakes is the initiation of catastrophic fires. Here, we report new experimental results on the influence of high temperatures on the strength of three tuffs that are commonly used for building in the Neapolitan region of Italy. Our results show that a reduction in strength was only observed for one tuff, the other two were unaffected by high temperatures. The cause of this strength discrepancy was found to be a product of the initial mineralogical composition, or, more specifically, the presence of thermally-unstable zeolites within the initial rock matrix. The implications of these data are that, in the event of fire, only the stability of buildings or structures built from tuff containing thermally-unstable zeolites will suffer. Unfortunately, this includes the most widespread dimension stone in Neapolitan architecture. We recommend that this knowledge should be considered during fire hazard mitigation in the Neapolitan area and that other tuffs used in construction worldwide should be tested in a similar way to assess their fire resistance.

  20. Event management

    OpenAIRE

    Myslivcová, Hana Bc.

    2007-01-01

    V práci je popsán teoretický postup při pořádání eventů, který vychází ze zásad projektového řízení. Tyto postupy jsou také aplikovány v praktické realizaci eventu. Následuje výzkum aktuálních trendů v event managementu a výzkum cílových skupin s pomocí dat MML/TGI.

  1. Emergency obstetric care in Mali: catastrophic spending and its impoverishing effects on households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Arsenault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate the frequency of catastrophic expenditures for emergency obstetric care, explore its risk factors, and assess the effect of these expenditures on households in the Kayes region, Mali. METHODS: Data on 484 obstetric emergencies (242 deaths and 242 near-misses were collected in 2008-2011. Catastrophic expenditure for emergency obstetric care was assessed at different thresholds and its associated factors were explored through logistic regression. A survey was subsequently administered in a nested sample of 56 households to determine how the catastrophic expenditure had affected them. FINDINGS: Despite the fee exemption policy for Caesareans and the maternity referral-system, designed to reduce the financial burden of emergency obstetric care, average expenses were 152 United States dollars (equivalent to 71 535 Communauté Financière Africaine francs and 20.7 to 53.5% of households incurred catastrophic expenditures. High expenditure for emergency obstetric care forced 44.6% of the households to reduce their food consumption and 23.2% were still indebted 10 months to two and a half years later. Living in remote rural areas was associated with the risk of catastrophic spending, which shows the referral system's inability to eliminate financial obstacles for remote households. Women who underwent Caesareans continued to incur catastrophic expenses, especially when prescribed drugs not included in the government-provided Caesarean kits. CONCLUSION: The poor accessibility and affordability of emergency obstetric care has consequences beyond maternal deaths. Providing drugs free of charge and moving to a more sustainable, nationally-funded referral system would reduce catastrophic expenses for households during obstetric emergencies.

  2. Applications of heavy ion microprobe for single event effects analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The motion of ionizing-radiation-induced rogue charge carriers in a semiconductor can create unwanted voltage and current conditions within a microelectronic circuit. If sufficient unwanted charge or current occurs on a sensitive node, a variety of single event effects (SEEs) can occur with consequences ranging from trivial to catastrophic. This paper describes the application of heavy ion microprobes to assist with calibration and validation of SEE modeling approaches

  3. The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

  4. Topography's event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munck Petersen, Rikke

    The aim of the paper is first to discuss how horizon and scale can be understood, secondly how they differ and what they might have in common? If topography can be seen as a way of working with these relations experiences, creations and latencies? Thirdly if diagrams and diagrammatology can bring...... space formation - to stimulate and elaborate the event of conception and topological thinking....

  5. Emergence of event cascades in inhomogeneous networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Shinomoto, Shigeru

    2016-01-01

    There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the systems exhibit catastrophic chain reactions if the interaction represented by the ratio of reproduction exceeds unity; however, their subthreshold states are not fully understood. Here, we report that these systems are possessed by nonstationary cascades of event-occurrences already in the subthreshold regime. Event cascades can be harmful in some contexts, when the peak-demand causes vaccine shortages, heavy traffic on communication lines, but may be beneficial in other contexts, such that spontaneous activity in neural networks may be used to generate motion or store memory. Thus it is important to comprehend the mechanism by which such cascades appear, and consider controlling a system to tame or facilitate fluctuations in the event-occurrences. The critical interaction for the emergence of cascades depends greatly on the network structure in which individuals are connected. We demonstrate that we can predict whether cascades may emerge, given information about the interactions between individuals. Furthermore, we develop a method of reallocating connections among individuals so that event cascades may be either impeded or impelled in a network. PMID:27625183

  6. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  7. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  8. Catastrophe model and its experimental verification of static loading rock system under impact load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    According to the catastrophe model for impact buckling of static loading structures, a new catastrophe model for impact loading failure of a static loading rock system was established, and one dimension (1D) catastrophe model was analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the furcation collection where catastrophe may take place is not only decided by mechanical system itself but also relates to exterior loading, which is different from the results obtained under mono-static loading where the bifurcation collection is only determined by mechanics of the system itself and has nothing to do with exterior loading. In addition, the corresponding 1D coupled static-dynamic loading experiment is designed to verify the analysis results of catastrophe model The test is done with Instron 1342 electroservo controlled testing system, in which medium strain rate is caused by monotony rising dynamic load. The parameters are obtained combining theoretical model with experiment. The experimental and theoretical curves of critical dynamic load vs static load are rather coincided, thus the new model is proved to be correct.

  9. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Norwegian pain catastrophizing scale in patients with low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes Linda; Storheim Kjersti; Lochting Ida; Grotle Margreth

    2012-01-01

    Background Pain catastrophizing has been found to be an important predictor of disability and days lost from work in patients with low back pain. The most commonly used outcome measure to identify pain catastrophizing is the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). To enable the use of the PCS in clinical settings and research in Norwegian speaking patients, the PCS had to be translated. The purpose of this study was therefore to translate and cross-culturally adapt the PCS into N...

  10. The influence of catastrophizing on treatment outcome in patients with non-specific low back pain: A systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Wertli, Maria M; Burgstaller, Jakob M.; Weiser, Sherri; Steurer, Johann; Kofmehl, Reto; Held, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    Study Design. Systematic reviewObjective. The aim of the current study was to assess the effect of catastrophizing on treatment efficacy and outcome in patients treated for low back pain.Summary of Background Data. Psychological factors including catastrophizing thoughts are believed to increase the risk for chronic low back pain. The influence of catastrophizing is debated.Methods. In September 2012 the following databases were searched: BIOSIS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, OTSeeker, Pe...

  11. Pain-related Catastrophizing and Perceived Social Responses: Inter-relationships in the Context of Chronic Pain

    OpenAIRE

    Buenaver, Luis F.; Edwards, Robert R.; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Pain-related coping, particularly catastrophizing, plays a significant role in shaping pain responses. One way catastrophizing is hypothesized to amplify pain and disability is via its effect on patients, social environments (e.g., communal coping model), though empirical support is limited. The present study tested whether the association between catastrophizing and deleterious pain-related outcomes was mediated by patients’ perceptions of significant others’ responses to their pain in a sam...

  12. Association between catastrophizing and self-rated pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    K. Meyer; Tschopp, A.; Sprott, H; Mannion, A. F.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing plays an important role in models of pain chronicity, showing a consistent correlation with both pain intensity and disability. It is conceivable that these associations are mediated or confounded by other psychological attributes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relative influence of catastrophizing and other psychological variables on pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Ro...

  13. To the tenth anniversary of the nuclear submarine Komsomolets catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review of the most significant accidents that occurred in the Soviet nuclear submarines is given. Major reasons giving rise to the accidents and destruction of the K-219 and K-278 submarines are analyzed. The events relating to the Komsomolets submarine destruction are described in detail. It is pointed out that psychological factor plays essential role in occurrence of non-standard situations, fire in particular, in nuclear submarines. Comparative data on accidents involving the US submarines are provided

  14. Krakatau 1883: A classic geophysical event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simkin, Tom; Fiske, Richard S.

    This week marks the 100th anniversary of Krakatau's 1883 eruption, perhaps the most famous volcanic event in recorded history. During a 23-hour period on August 26 and 27, 1883, more than 18 km3 of volcanic debris thundered upward from Krakatau, resulting in the death of more than 36,000 people and causing widespread devastation to the surrounding area. Moreover, the 1883 events at Krakatau caused geophysical phenomena that were observed around the world, making it (at least up until Mount St. Helens' 1980 eruption) the household word for a classic volcanic catastrophe.One hundred years ago, Krakatau was a 5×9 km island in the Sunda Straits, between Java and Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies. It was a familiar landmark, both to the tens of thousands of nearby coastal residents and to the crews of thousands of ships from Europe and the Americas that passed through the Straits each year on their way to and from the far east. The volcano had last erupted in 1681 and was not regarded as a likely site for renewed and catastrophic activity.

  15. Ultrasound monitoring of applied forcing, material ageing, and catastrophic yield of crustal structures

    OpenAIRE

    G. P. Gregori; M. Lupieri; Paparo, G.; Poscolieri, M.; Ventrice, G.; Zanini, A

    2007-01-01

    A new kind of data analysis is discussed – and a few case histories of actual application are presented – concerning the physical information attainable by acoustic emission (AE) records in geodynamically active or volcanic areas. The previous analyses of such same kind of observations were reported in several papers appeared in the last few years, and here briefly recalled. They are concerned with the inference of the forcing ("F...

  16. Catastrophic meltwater discharge down the Hudson Valley: a potential trigger for the Intra-Allerød cold period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Driscoll, Neal W.; Uchupi, Elazar; Keigwin, Loyd D.; Schwab, William C.; Thieler, E. Robert; Swift, Stephen A.

    2005-01-01

    Glacial freshwater discharge to the Atlantic Ocean during deglaciation may have inhibited oceanic thermohaline circulation, and is often postulated to have driven climatic fluctuations. Yet attributing meltwater-discharge events to particular climate oscillations is problematic, because the location, timing, and amount of meltwater discharge are often poorly constrained. We present evidence from the Hudson Valley and the northeastern U.S. continental margin that establishes the timing of the catastrophic draining of Glacial Lake Iroquois, which breached the moraine dam at the Narrows in New York City, eroded glacial lake sediments in the Hudson Valley, and deposited large sediment lobes on the New York and New Jersey continental shelf ca. 13,350 yr B.P. Excess 14C in Cariaco Basin sediments indicates a slowing in thermohaline circulation and heat transport to the North Atlantic at that time, and both marine and terrestrial paleoclimate proxy records around the North Atlantic show a short-lived (<400 yr) cold event (Intra-Aller??d cold period) that began ca. 13,350 yr B.P. The meltwater discharge out the Hudson Valley may have played an important role in triggering the Intra-Aller??d cold period by diminishing thermohaline circulation. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

  17. Consideration of Single-Event Gate Rupture Mechanism in Power MOSFET

    OpenAIRE

    Kuboyama, S.; Mizuta, E; Ikeda, N; ABE, H.; Ohshima, T.; Tamura, T.

    2013-01-01

    The catastrophic failure mode caused by single-event gate rupture phenomenon observed in power MOSFETs still remains as a critical issue for those devices to be used in space radiation environments. Detailed analyses of the devices damaged by the phenomenon suggested a new possible mechanism. A preliminary model for the mechanism was proposed.

  18. Prediction of catastrophe theory for heavy-ion collisions at high energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studying the nature of limiting fragmentation of nuclei in high energy heavy-ion collisions has shown that the dynamic system of the nucleus is inclined to enter a nonequilibrium state, schottische and disintegrate on separate nucleons under conditions typical to each collision. There is a question: how the phenomenon of multifragmentation is possible here, i. e. formation of several nucleus with masses on interval from a nucleon up to a material nucleus A in a final state. What is it - debris of a material nucleus or newly created daughter nuclei? The purpose of offered report is discussion of this question. The initial for us statement is taken from the theory of dynamic systems. Chaos is a result of hashing of phase space which is carried out by means of operations of distension and compression. The appropriate transformation are called baker-transformation or Smale's horseshoe. The geometrical picture of chaos is a folded relief of multi-dimensional phase space. The stochastic amplification is understood as growth of folder number and their size. In typical interactions of massive ions, chaos formation conditions are provided automatically due to alternate force influence of Coulomb and Yukawa fields - compression is replaced by distension, and distension - by compression. Extending this representation on a case of massive ion collision, we supplement it accounting a possibility of constituents (nucleons) strong interaction on small distances. The easiest way to make it is approximating minima of potential function V(x, c) in catastrophe theory by rectangular holes of Fermi-gas in nuclear physics. The catastrophe theory is necessary to find connection between channels of fragments birth of different charge and masses, proceeding from the general form of a multi-dimensional phase space relief (a kind of potential function). The main result which can be taken from this theory at the given stage of researches consists in the general form of a curve of a

  19. Cretaceous-tertiary boundary event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In badlands along Morgan Creek, southern Saskatchewan, The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary is at the contact of the Frenchman and Ravenscrag Formations. Three sites have been investigated. Evidence of a catastrophic event at the end of the Cretaceous includes data from palynology, geochemistry, and mineralogy; it supports the hypothesis that the K-T boundary event involved the impact of an extraterrestrial object and consequent regional devastation of biotic communities. Palynologic evidence is the abrupt disappearance of many characteristic late Maestrichtian palynomorph (especially angiosperm) taxa and subsequent temporary dominance of assemblages by fern spores. These changes are interpreted, respectively, as (1) destruction of plant communities accompanied by selective extinctions and (2) repopulation of the land surface by opportunistic species prior to development of the typical regional early Paleocene flora. Geochemical analyses (neutron activation and radiochemical separations) revealed iridium abundance anomalies of 3.0, 3.3, and 4.8 ng/g in a 1-3 cm-thick, kaolinitic boundary interval at the three sites. Mineralogic evidence of the probable impact origin of boundary interval components is presence of detrital quartz and feldspar grains as large as 0.40 mm that exhibit shock metamorphic features known only from meteorite impacts or chemical and nuclear explosions

  20. DER 83: outstanding events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The DER's activity is presented through 82 ''outstanding events''. Each one is a stage in the effort of research and development of the DER. These events concern the following fields: new applications of electric power for customers; environment protection and new energy sources; improvements of electric power production units; electrical materials; electric network planning and control; computer codes. In the production field, one deals more particularly with nuclear reactor safety studies: analysis of the behaviour of different components; reactor safety experiments; reliability of different systems (safety, communications...)

  1. Quasi-classical approximation in vortex filament dynamics. Integrable systems, gradient catastrophe and flutter

    CERN Document Server

    Konopelchenko, B G

    2012-01-01

    Quasiclassical approximation in the intrinsic description of the vortex filament dynamics is discussed. Within this approximation the governing equations are given by elliptic system of quasi-linear PDEs of the first order. Dispersionless Da Rios system and dispersionless Hirota equation are among them. They describe motion of vortex filament with slow varying curvature and torsion without or with axial flow. Gradient catastrophe for governing equations is studied. It is shown that geometrically this catastrophe manifests as a fast oscillation of a filament curve around the rectifying plane which resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve' I equation.

  2. Loading-rate-independent delay of catastrophic avalanches in a bulk metallic glass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. H.; Chan, K. C.; Wang, G.; Wu, F. F.; Xia, L.; Ren, J. L.; Li, J.; Dahmen, K. A.; Liaw, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The plastic flow of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is characterized by intermittent bursts of avalanches, and this trend results in disastrous failures of BMGs. In the present work, a double-side-notched BMG specimen is designed, which exhibits chaotic plastic flows consisting of several catastrophic avalanches under the applied loading. The disastrous shear avalanches have, then, been delayed by forming a stable plastic-flow stage in the specimens with tailored distances between the bottoms of the notches, where the distribution of a complex stress field is acquired. Differing from the conventional compressive testing results, such a delaying process is independent of loading rate. The statistical analysis shows that in the specimens with delayed catastrophic failures, the plastic flow can evolve to a critical dynamics, making the catastrophic failure more predictable than the ones with chaotic plastic flows. The findings are of significance in understanding the plastic-flow mechanisms in BMGs and controlling the avalanches in relating solids.

  3. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk;

    2015-01-01

    has not previously been investigated. The authors hypothesized that perioperative escitalopram would reduce pain after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. METHODS: A total of 120 pain catastrophizing patients (selected using the pain catastrophizing scale as preoperative screening tool......) scheduled for TKA were randomized in a double-blind manner to either 10 mg escitalopram or placebo daily from preanesthesia to postoperative day 6 in addition to a standardized analgesic regime. The primary outcome was pain upon ambulation 24 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes were overall pain during well......-defined mobilizations and at rest from 2 to 48 h and from days 2 to 6, morphine equivalents, anxiety, depression, and side effects. RESULTS: Pain upon ambulation (mean [95% CI]) 24 h after surgery in the escitalopram versus placebo group was 58 (53 to 64) versus 64 (58 to 69), the mean difference being -5 (-13 to 3), P...

  4. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law

  5. Evaluation of the propensity for coal spontaneous combustion based on catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yu-tao; ZHANG Xi-chen; TIEN Jerry C; LI Ya-qing

    2011-01-01

    Generally,different prevention measures should be taken according to spontaneous combustion propensities.The current methods to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion,such as chromatographic method of oxygen adsorption,oxidation kinetics method and activation energy method,are mostly affected by human factors.Their boundaries among different classes of propensities were all established by subjective judgments.A new evaluation method using catastrophe theory is introduced.This method can accurately depict the process of coal spontaneous combustion and the evaluation index,"catastrophe temperature",be obtained based on the model.In terms of catastrophe temperature,the spontaneous combustion propensity of different coals can be sequenced.Experimental data indicate that this method is appropriate to describe the spontaneous combustion process and to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion.

  6. CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-xia; WAN Zhong-juan; YU Shao-peng; LUO Xin-zheng; SUN Guang-you

    2004-01-01

    Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thom Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.

  7. Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, the Miscellaneous category includes a few events which involve either source material, byproduct material, or natural uranium which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, pre-1990 alcohol and drugs (involving reactor operators, security force members, or management persons), and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

  8. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  9. Roll stability catastrophe mechanism of a flooded ship on regular sea waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurcation set equation, splitting factor ‘u’ and regular factor ‘v’, where both ‘u’ and ‘v’ are further expressed with typical flooded ship parameters. Then, the roll catastrophe mechanism is analyzed mainly by means ‘u’, under the given parameters of a typical trawler boat. The aim of this research is to reveal the mutagenic mechanism of the roll stability and provide a reference for improving ship roll stability. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  10. Catastrophes and Conservation: Lessons from Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estes J.A.

    1992-02-01

    Full Text Available The Exxon Valdez spill is broadly perceived as an environmental catastrophe. However, expected catastrophic declines in the region's sea otter population cannot be demonstrated, not because they didn't occur but because the necessary information is lacking. Furthermore, efforts to rehabilitate oiled sea otters following the spill were extremely expensive and ineffective. Some improvements are possible with better planning. However, post-spill capture and rehabilitation probably can not be used to substantially reduce sea otter losses from future spills, and the use of such measures to conserve populations is unrealistic.

  11. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  12. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  13. Model and algorithm for optimization of rescue center location of emergent catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ding-wei; ZHANG Guo-xiang

    2006-01-01

    The location of rescue centers is a key problem in optimal resource allocation and logistics in emergency response.We propose a mathematical model for rescue center location with the considerations of emergency occurrence probability,catastrophe diffusion function and rescue function.Because the catastrophe diffusion and rescue functions are both nonlinear and time-variable,it cannot be solved by common mathematical programming methods.We develop a heuristic embedded genetic algorithm for the special model solution.The computation based on a large number of examples with practical data has shown us satisfactory results.

  14. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  15. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  16. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.

    2014-07-01

    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  17. Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rubino, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

  18. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain. PMID:26713422

  19. Event Index - a LHCb Event Search System

    CERN Document Server

    Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Kazeev, Nikita; Redkin, Artem

    2015-01-01

    LHC experiments generate up to $10^{12}$ events per year. This paper describes Event Index - an event search system. Event Index's primary function is quickly selecting subsets of events from a combination of conditions, such as the estimated decay channel or stripping lines output. Event Index is essentially Apache Lucene optimized for read-only indexes distributed over independent shards on independent nodes.

  20. Real-time quantitative imaging of failure events in materials under load at temperatures above 1,600 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bale, Hrishikesh A.; Haboub, Abdel; MacDowell, Alastair A.; Nasiatka, James R.; Parkinson, Dilworth Y.; Cox, Brian N.; Marshall, David B.; Ritchie, Robert O.

    2013-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites are the emerging material of choice for structures that will see temperatures above ~1,500 °C in hostile environments, as for example in next-generation gas turbines and hypersonic-flight applications. The safe operation of applications depends on how small cracks forming inside the material are restrained by its microstructure. As with natural tissue such as bone and seashells, the tailored microstructural complexity of ceramic matrix composites imparts them with mechanical toughness, which is essential to avoiding failure. Yet gathering three-dimensional observations of damage evolution in extreme environments has been a challenge. Using synchrotron X-ray computed microtomography, we have fully resolved sequences of microcrack damage as cracks grow under load at temperatures up to 1,750 °C. Our observations are key ingredients for the high-fidelity simulations used to compute failure risks under extreme operating conditions.