WorldWideScience

Sample records for carbon cycle model

  1. The Hamburg oceanic carbon cycle circulation model. Cycle 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Reimer, E.; Heinze, C.

    1992-02-01

    The carbon cycle model calculates the prognostic fields of oceanic geochemical carbon cycle tracers making use of a 'frozen' velocity field provided by a run of the LSG oceanic circulation model (see the corresponding manual, LSG=Large Scale Geostrophic). The carbon cycle model includes a crude approximation of interactions between sediment and bottom layer water. A simple (meridionally diffusive) one layer atmosphere model allows to calculate the CO 2 airborne fraction resulting from the oceanic biogeochemical interactions. (orig.)

  2. Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Cycle Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, D.; Chaoka, S.; Kumar, P.; Quijano, J. C.

    2012-12-01

    Second generation bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus (Miscantus × giganteus) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are regarded as clean energy sources, and are an attractive option to mitigate the human-induced climate change. However, the global climate change and the expansion of perennial grass bioenergy crops have the power to alter the biogeochemical cycles in soil, especially, soil carbon storages, over long time scales. In order to develop a predictive understanding, this study develops a coupled hydrological-soil nutrient model to simulate soil carbon responses under different climate scenarios such as: (i) current weather condition, (ii) decreased precipitation by -15%, and (iii) increased temperature up to +3C for four different crops, namely miscanthus, switchgrass, maize, and natural prairie. We use Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS), version 5.4.0, to capture biophysical and hydrological components coupled with a multilayer carbon and ¬nitrogen cycle model. We apply the model at daily time scale to the Energy Biosciences Institute study site, located in the University of Illinois Research Farms, in Urbana, Illinois. The atmospheric forcing used to run the model was generated stochastically from parameters obtained using available data recorded in Bondville Ameriflux Site. The model simulations are validated with observations of drainage and nitrate and ammonium concentrations recorded in drain tiles during 2011. The results of this study show (1) total soil carbon storage of miscanthus accumulates most noticeably due to the significant amount of aboveground plant carbon, and a relatively high carbon to nitrogen ratio and lignin content, which reduce the litter decomposition rate. Also, (2) the decreased precipitation contributes to the enhancement of total soil carbon storage and soil nitrogen concentration because of the reduced microbial biomass pool. However, (3) an opposite effect on the cycle is introduced by the increased

  3. An isopycnic ocean carbon cycle model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Assmann

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The carbon cycle is a major forcing component in the global climate system. Modelling studies, aiming to explain recent and past climatic changes and to project future ones, increasingly include the interaction between the physical and biogeochemical systems. Their ocean components are generally z-coordinate models that are conceptually easy to use but that employ a vertical coordinate that is alien to the real ocean structure. Here, we present first results from a newly-developed isopycnic carbon cycle model and demonstrate the viability of using an isopycnic physical component for this purpose. As expected, the model represents well the interior ocean transport of biogeochemical tracers and produces realistic tracer distributions. Difficulties in employing a purely isopycnic coordinate lie mainly in the treatment of the surface boundary layer which is often represented by a bulk mixed layer. The most significant adjustments of the ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC, for use with an isopycnic coordinate, were in the representation of upper ocean biological production. We present a series of sensitivity studies exploring the effect of changes in biogeochemical and physical processes on export production and nutrient distribution. Apart from giving us pointers for further model development, they highlight the importance of preformed nutrient distributions in the Southern Ocean for global nutrient distributions. The sensitivity studies show that iron limitation for biological particle production, the treatment of light penetration for biological production, and the role of diapycnal mixing result in significant changes of nutrient distributions and liniting factors of biological production.

  4. Carbonate-silicate cycle models of the long-term carbon cycle, carbonate accumulation in the oceans, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldeira, K.G.

    1991-01-01

    Several models of the long-term carbon cycle, incorporating models of the carbonate-silicate cycle, were developed and utilized to investigate issues relating to global climate and the causes and consequences of changes in calcium carbonate accumulation in the oceans. Model results indicate that the marked mid-Cretaceous (120 Ma) global warming could be explained by increased rates of release of carbon dioxide from subduction-zone metamorphism and mid-ocean-ridges, in conjunction with paleogeographic factors. Since the mid-Cretaceous, the primary setting for calcium carbonate accumulation in the oceans has shifted from shallow-water to deep-water environments. Model results suggest that this shift could have major consequences for the carbonate-silicate cycle and climate, and lead to significant increases in the flux of metamorphic carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Increases in pelagic carbonate productivity, and decreases in tropical shallow-water area available for neritic carbonate accumulation, have both been proposed as the primary cause of this shift. Two lines of evidence developed here (one involving a statistical analysis of Tertiary carbonate-accumulation and oxygen-isotope data, and another based on modeling the carbonate-silicate cycle and ocean chemistry) suggest that a decrease in tropical shallow-water area was more important than increased pelagic productivity in explaining this shift. Model investigations of changes in ocean chemistry at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Ma) indicate that variations in deep-water carbonate productivity may affect shallow-water carbonate accumulation rates through a mechanism involving surface-water carbonate-ion concentration. In the aftermath of the K/T boundary event, deep-water carbonate production and accumulation were significantly reduced as a result of the extinction of calcareous plankton

  5. Modeling of the global carbon cycle - isotopic data requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciais, P.

    1994-01-01

    Isotopes are powerful tools to constrain carbon cycle models. For example, the combinations of the CO 2 and the 13 C budget allows to calculate the net-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Observations of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon allow to estimate gross carbon exchange fluxes between different reservoirs and to deduce time scales of carbon overturning in important reservoirs. 18 O in CO 2 is potentially a tool to make the deconvolution of C fluxes within the land biosphere (assimilation vs respirations). The scope of this article is to identify gaps in our present knowledge about isotopes in the light of their use as constraint for the global carbon cycle. In the following we will present a list of some future data requirements for carbon cycle models. (authors)

  6. Simulated Carbon Cycling in a Model Microbial Mat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, K. L.; Potter, C. S.

    2006-12-01

    We present here the novel addition of detailed organic carbon cycling to our model of a hypersaline microbial mat ecosystem. This ecosystem model, MBGC (Microbial BioGeoChemistry), simulates carbon fixation through oxygenic and anoxygenic photosynthesis, and the release of C and electrons for microbial heterotrophs via cyanobacterial exudates and also via a pool of dead cells. Previously in MBGC, the organic portion of the carbon cycle was simplified into a black-box rate of accumulation of simple and complex organic compounds based on photosynthesis and mortality rates. We will discuss the novel inclusion of fermentation as a source of carbon and electrons for use in methanogenesis and sulfate reduction, and the influence of photorespiration on labile carbon exudation rates in cyanobacteria. We will also discuss the modeling of decomposition of dead cells and the ultimate release of inorganic carbon. The detailed modeling of organic carbon cycling is important to the accurate representation of inorganic carbon flux through the mat, as well as to accurate representation of growth models of the heterotrophs under different environmental conditions. Because the model ecosystem is an analog of ancient microbial mats that had huge impacts on the atmosphere of early earth, this MBGC can be useful as a biological component to either early earth models or models of other planets that potentially harbor life.

  7. Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

    2005-01-01

    Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

  8. Nuclear weapons data for use in carbon cycle modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enting, I.G.

    1982-01-01

    This report contains tables of atmospheric explosions for use in carbon cycle modelling studies. Descriptions of the sources of the data and the manner in which it can be used are given. The essential requirement is for a specification of the amount of 14 C injected into the atmosphere as a function of time, height, latitude and longitude

  9. Carbon cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, J; Halbritter, G; Neumann-Hauf, G

    1982-05-01

    This report contains a review of literature on the subjects of the carbon cycle, the increase of the atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration and the possible impacts of an increased CO/sub 2/ concentration on the climate. In addition to this survey, the report discusses the questions that are still open and the resulting research needs. During the last twenty years a continual increase of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by about 1-2 ppm per years has been observed. In 1958 the concentration was 315 ppm and this increased to 336 ppm in 1978. A rough estimate shows that the increase of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is about half of the amount of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by the combustion of fossil fuels. Two possible sinks for the CO/sub 2/ released into the atmosphere are known: the ocean and the biota. The role of the biota is, however, unclear, since it can act both as a sink and as a source. Most models of the carbon cycle are one-dimensional and cannot be used for accurate predictions. Calculations with climate models have shown that an increased atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration leads to a warming of the earth's surface and lower atmosphere. Calculations show that a doubling of the atmospheric CO/sub 2/-concentration would lead to a net heating of the lower atmosphere and earth's surface by a global average of about 4 W m/sup -2/. Greater uncertainties arise in estimating the change in surface temperature resulting from this change in heating rate. It is estimated that the global average annual surface temperature would change between 1.5 and 4.5 K. There are, however, latitudinal and seasonal variations of the impact of increased CO/sub 2/ concentration. Other meteorological variables (e.g. precipitation, wind speed etc.) would also be changed. It appears that the impacts of the other products of fossil fuel combustion are unlikely to counteract the impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the climate.

  10. Soil carbon model alternatives for ECHAM5/JSBACH climate model: Evaluation and impacts on global carbon cycle estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thum, T.; Raisanen, P.; Sevanto, S.

    2011-01-01

    The response of soil organic carbon to climate change might lead to significant feedbacks affecting global warming. This response can be studied by coupled climate-carbon cycle models but so far the description of soil organic carbon cycle in these models has been quite simple. In this work we used...... the coupled climate-carbon cycle model ECHAM5/JSBACH (European Center/Hamburg Model 5/Jena Scheme for Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg) with two different soil carbon modules, namely (1) the original soil carbon model of JSBACH called CBALANCE and (2) a new soil carbon model Yasso07, to study...... the interaction between climate variability and soil organic carbon. Equivalent ECHAM5/JSBACH simulations were conducted using both soil carbon models, with freely varying atmospheric CO2 for the last 30 years (1977-2006). In this study, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and ocean carbon cycle were excluded. The new...

  11. Past and present of sediment and carbon biogeochemical cycling models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. T. Mackenzie

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The global carbon cycle is part of the much more extensive sedimentary cycle that involves large masses of carbon in the Earth's inner and outer spheres. Studies of the carbon cycle generally followed a progression in knowledge of the natural biological, then chemical, and finally geological processes involved, culminating in a more or less integrated picture of the biogeochemical carbon cycle by the 1920s. However, knowledge of the ocean's carbon cycle behavior has only within the last few decades progressed to a stage where meaningful discussion of carbon processes on an annual to millennial time scale can take place. In geologically older and pre-industrial time, the ocean was generally a net source of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere owing to the mineralization of land-derived organic matter in addition to that produced in situ and to the process of CaCO3 precipitation. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations because of fossil fuel combustion and land use changes, the direction of the air-sea CO2 flux has reversed, leading to the ocean as a whole being a net sink of anthropogenic CO2. The present thickness of the surface ocean layer, where part of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions are stored, is estimated as of the order of a few hundred meters. The oceanic coastal zone net air-sea CO2 exchange flux has also probably changed during industrial time. Model projections indicate that in pre-industrial times, the coastal zone may have been net heterotrophic, releasing CO2 to the atmosphere from the imbalance between gross photosynthesis and total respiration. This, coupled with extensive CaCO3 precipitation in coastal zone environments, led to a net flux of CO2 out of the system. During industrial time the coastal zone ocean has tended to reverse its trophic status toward a non-steady state situation of net autotrophy, resulting in net uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and storage of carbon in the coastal ocean, despite the significant calcification

  12. Elevated temperature alters carbon cycling in a model microbial community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosier, A.; Li, Z.; Thomas, B. C.; Hettich, R. L.; Pan, C.; Banfield, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Earth's climate is regulated by biogeochemical carbon exchanges between the land, oceans and atmosphere that are chiefly driven by microorganisms. Microbial communities are therefore indispensible to the study of carbon cycling and its impacts on the global climate system. In spite of the critical role of microbial communities in carbon cycling processes, microbial activity is currently minimally represented or altogether absent from most Earth System Models. Method development and hypothesis-driven experimentation on tractable model ecosystems of reduced complexity, as presented here, are essential for building molecularly resolved, benchmarked carbon-climate models. Here, we use chemoautotropic acid mine drainage biofilms as a model community to determine how elevated temperature, a key parameter of global climate change, regulates the flow of carbon through microbial-based ecosystems. This study represents the first community proteomics analysis using tandem mass tags (TMT), which enable accurate, precise, and reproducible quantification of proteins. We compare protein expression levels of biofilms growing over a narrow temperature range expected to occur with predicted climate changes. We show that elevated temperature leads to up-regulation of proteins involved in amino acid metabolism and protein modification, and down-regulation of proteins involved in growth and reproduction. Closely related bacterial genotypes differ in their response to temperature: Elevated temperature represses carbon fixation by two Leptospirillum genotypes, whereas carbon fixation is significantly up-regulated at higher temperature by a third closely related genotypic group. Leptospirillum group III bacteria are more susceptible to viral stress at elevated temperature, which may lead to greater carbon turnover in the microbial food web through the release of viral lysate. Overall, this proteogenomics approach revealed the effects of climate change on carbon cycling pathways and other

  13. Modelling the soil carbon cycle of pine ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, K.

    1994-01-01

    Soil carbon cycling rates and carbon budgets were calculated for stands of four pine species. Pinus sylvestris (at Jaedraaas, Sweden), P. densiflora (Hiroshima, Japan), P. elliottii (Florida, USA) and P. radiata (Canberra, Australia), using a simulation model driven by daily observations of mean air temperature and precipitation. Inputs to soil carbon through litterfall differ considerably among the four pine forests, but the accumulation of the A 0 layer and humus in mineral soil is less variable. Decomposition of the A 0 layer and humus is fastest for P. densiflora and slowest for P. sylvestris stands with P. radiata and P. elliottii intermediate. The decomposition rate is lower for the P. elliottii stand than for P. densiflora in spite of its higher temperatures and slightly higher precipitation. Seasonal changes in simulated soil carbon are observed only for the A 0 layer at the P. densiflora site. Simulated soil respiration rates vary seasonally in three stands (P. sylvestris, P. densiflora and P. radiata). In simulations for pine trees planted on bare soil, all soil organic matter fractions except the humus in mineral soil recover to half their asymptotic values within 30 to 40 years of planting for P. sylvestris and P. densiflora, compared with 10 to 20 years for P. radiata and P. elliottii. The simulated recovery of soil carbon following clear-cutting is fastest for the P. elliottii stand and slowest for P. sylvestris. Management of P. elliottii and P. radiata stands on 40-years rotations is sustainable because carbon removed through harvest is restored in the interval between successive clear-cuts. However p. densiflora and P. sylvestris stands may be unable to maintain soil carbon under such a short rotation. High growth rates of P. elliottii and p. radiata stands in spite of relatively poor soil conditions and slow carbon cycling may be related to the physiological responses of species to environmental conditions. (Abstract Truncated)

  14. The global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Reimer, E.

    1991-01-01

    Basic concepts of the global carbon cycle on earth are described; by careful analyses of isotopic ratios, emission history and oceanic ventilation rates are derived, which provide crucial tests for constraining and calibrating models. Effects of deforestation, fertilizing, fossil fuel burning, soil erosion, etc. are quantified and compared, and the oceanic carbon process is evaluated. Oceanic and terrestrial biosphere modifications are discussed and a carbon cycle model is proposed

  15. Bacteria in the greenhouse: Modeling the role of oceanic plankton in the global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ducklow, H.W.; Fasham, M.J.R.

    1992-01-01

    To plan effectively to deal with the greenhouse effect, a fundamental understanding is needed of the biogeochemical and physical machinery that cycles carbon in the global system; in addition, models are needed of the carbon cycle to project the effects of increasing carbon dioxide. In this chapter, a description is given of efforts to simulate the cycling of carbon and nitrogen in the upper ocean, concentrating on the model's treatment of marine phytoplankton, and what it reveals of their role in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere. The focus is on the upper ocean because oceanic uptake appears to regulate the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

  16. Including an ocean carbon cycle model into iLOVECLIM (v1.0)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouttes, N.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Mariotti, V.; Bopp, L.

    2015-01-01

    The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration plays a crucial role in the radiative balance and as such has a strong influence on the evolution of climate. Because of the numerous interactions between climate and the carbon cycle, it is necessary to include a model of the carbon cycle within a

  17. Monitoring, modelling and managing Canada's forest carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurz, W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents information concerning the management of carbon stocks both globally and in Canada, with reference to the fact that forests may contribute to carbon emissions problems. Global fossil carbon emissions statistics were provided, as well as data of forest area per capita in Canada and various countries. Details of forest management options and carbon accounting with reference to the Kyoto Protocol were reviewed. An explanation of forest management credits in national accounts was provided. An explanation of carbon sinks and carbon sources was also presented, along with details of stand level carbon dynamics. A model for calculating landscape level carbon stocks was presented, with reference to increasing and decreasing disturbances. A hypothetical landscape example was provided. It was concluded that age-class structure affect the amount of carbon stored in landscape; age-class structure also affect carbon dynamics; and responses reflect the change in disturbance regimes. An overview of international reporting requirements was presented. Canadian harvests equal 54,000 tonnes of carbon per year. It was recommended that managed forests could increase carbon in forests while also managing carbon harvests to meet society's needs. A chart presenting forest management details was presented, along with a hypothetical landscape example and a forecast for cumulative changes after 50 years, The benefits and challenges of forest management were reviewed as well as options regarding salvaging and deforestation avoidance. A carbon budget model was presented. It was concluded that forests in Canada could be used in a greenhouse gas management strategy. However, changes in disturbance may mean the difference between net source or net sink. Details of biomass were presented and multi-mode combustion facilities. The feasibility of biomass as a fuel source was discussed, with reference to hydrogen fuel. Gas composition profiles were provided, as well as details of

  18. Field Investigation and Modeling Development for Hydrological and Carbon Cycles in Southwest Karst Region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X. B.

    2017-12-01

    It is required to understanding water cycle and carbon cycle processes for water resource management and pollution prevention and global warming influence in southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models. Our study focus on the karst springshed in Mao village, the mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. This study provides basic theory and simulation method for water resource management and groundwater pollution prevention in China karst region.

  19. The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Anable, Jillian

    2012-01-01

    Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario “models”, this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport–energy–environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals. - Research highlights: ►New strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model. ►Tool to develop and analyse full consequences of multiple scenarios of transport policy packages. ►Novel approach to modelling demand for new vehicles by market and technology. ►Model available for use by research community via http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=UK+Transport+Carbon+Model.

  20. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

  1. Modelling the carbon cycle of grassland in the Netherlands under various management strategies and environmental conditions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol-van Dasselaar, van den A.; Lantinga, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    A simulation model of the grassland carbon cycle (CCGRASS) was developed to evaluate the long-term effects of different management strategies and various environmental conditions on carbon sequestration in a loam soil under permanent grassland in the Netherlands. The model predicted that the rate of

  2. Modelling the inorganic ocean carbon cycle under past and future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewan, T.L.

    2004-01-01

    This study used a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with an inorganic carbon component to examine the inorganic ocean carbon cycle with particular reference to how climate feedback influences future uptake. In the last 150 years, the increase in atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have been higher than any time during the Earth's history. Although the oceans are the largest sink for carbon dioxide, it is not know how the ocean carbon cycle will respond to increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations in the future. Climate feedbacks could potentially reduce further uptake of carbon by the ocean. In addition to examining past climate transitions, including both abrupt and glacial-interglacial climate transitions, this study also examined the sensitivity of the inorganic carbon cycle to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were also projected under a range of global warming scenarios. Most simulations identified a transient weakening of the North Atlantic and increased sea surface temperatures (SST). These positive feedbacks act on the carbon system to reduce uptake. However, the ocean has the capacity to take up 65 to 75 per cent of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide increases. An analysis of climate feedback on future carbon uptake shows that oceans store 7 per cent more carbon when there are no climate feedbacks acting on the system. Sensitivity experiments using the Gent McWilliams parameterization for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies show a further 6 per cent increase in oceanic uptake. Inclusion of sea ice dynamics resulted in a 2 per cent difference in uptake. This study also examined changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration that occur during abrupt climate change events. Changes in ocean circulation and carbon solubility cause significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations when melt water episodes are simulated in both hemispheres. The response of the carbon

  3. Modeling the grazing effect on dry grassland carbon cycling with modified Biome-BGC grazing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Geping; Han, Qifei; Li, Chaofan; Yang, Liao

    2014-05-01

    Identifying the factors that determine the carbon source/sink strength of ecosystems is important for reducing uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Arid grassland ecosystems are a widely distributed biome type in Xinjiang, Northwest China, covering approximately one-fourth the country's land surface. These grasslands are the habitat for many endemic and rare plant and animal species and are also used as pastoral land for livestock. Using the modified Biome-BGC grazing model, we modeled carbon dynamics in Xinjiang for grasslands that varied in grazing intensity. In general, this regional simulation estimated that the grassland ecosystems in Xinjiang acted as a net carbon source, with a value of 0.38 Pg C over the period 1979-2007. There were significant effects of grazing on carbon dynamics. An over-compensatory effect in net primary productivity (NPP) and vegetation carbon (C) stock was observed when grazing intensity was lower than 0.40 head/ha. Grazing resulted in a net carbon source of 23.45 g C m-2 yr-1, which equaled 0.37 Pg in Xinjiang in the last 29 years. In general, grazing decreased vegetation C stock, while an increasing trend was observed with low grazing intensity. The soil C increased significantly (17%) with long-term grazing, while the soil C stock exhibited a steady trend without grazing. These findings have implications for grassland ecosystem management as it relates to carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation, e.g., removal of grazing should be considered in strategies that aim to increase terrestrial carbon sequestrations at local and regional scales. One of the greatest limitations in quantifying the effects of herbivores on carbon cycling is identifying the grazing systems and intensities within a given region. We hope our study emphasizes the need for large-scale assessments of how grazing impacts carbon cycling. Most terrestrial ecosystems in Xinjiang have been affected by disturbances to a greater or lesser extent in the past

  4. Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

    2010-05-01

    Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the

  5. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, P.M.; Betts, R.A.; Jones, C.D.; Spall, S.A.; Totterdell, I.J.

    2000-01-01

    The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO 2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr -1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback. (author)

  6. Characterizing post-industrial changes in the ocean carbon cycle in an Earth system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumoto, Katsumi; Tokos, Kathy S.; Chikamoto, Megumi O. (Geology and Geophysics, Univ. of Minnesota, MN (United States)), e-mail: katsumi@umn.edu; Ridgwell, Andy (School of Geographical Sciences, Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom))

    2010-10-22

    Understanding the oceanic uptake of carbon from the atmosphere is essential for better constraining the global budget, as well as for predicting the air-borne fraction of CO{sub 2} emissions and thus degree of climate change. Gaining this understanding is difficult, because the 'natural' carbon cycle, the part of the global carbon cycle unaltered by CO{sub 2} emissions, also responds to climate change and ocean acidification. Using a global climate model of intermediate complexity, we assess the evolution of the natural carbon cycle over the next few centuries. We find that physical mechanisms, particularly Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and gas solubility, alter the natural carbon cycle the most and lead to a significant reduction in the overall oceanic carbon uptake. Important biological mechanisms include reduced organic carbon export production due to reduced nutrient supply, increased organic carbon production due to higher temperatures and reduced CaCO{sub 3} production due to increased ocean acidification. A large ensemble of model experiments indicates that the most important source of uncertainty in ocean uptake projections in the near term future are the upper ocean vertical diffusivity and gas exchange coefficient. By year 2300, the model's climate sensitivity replaces these two and becomes the dominant factor as global warming continues

  7. Modeling carbon cycle process of soil profile in Loess Plateau of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Finke, P.; Guo, Z.; Wu, H.

    2011-12-01

    SoilGen2 is a process-based model, which could reconstruct soil formation under various climate conditions, parent materials, vegetation types, slopes, expositions and time scales. Both organic and inorganic carbon cycle processes could be simulated, while the later process is important in carbon cycle of arid and semi-arid regions but seldom being studied. After calibrating parameters of dust deposition rate and segments depth affecting elements transportation and deposition in the profile, modeling results after 10000 years were confronted with measurements of two soil profiles in loess plateau of China, The simulated trends of organic carbon and CaCO3 in the profile are similar to measured values. Relative sensitivity analysis for carbon cycle process have been done and the results show that the change of organic carbon in long time scale is more sensitive to precipitation, temperature, plant carbon input and decomposition parameters (decomposition rate of humus, ratio of CO2/(BIO+HUM), etc.) in the model. As for the inorganic carbon cycle, precipitation and potential evaporation are important for simulation quality, while the leaching and deposition of CaCO3 are not sensitive to pCO2 and temperature of atmosphere.

  8. Modelling carbon dynamics from urban land conversion: fundamental model of city in relation to a local carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellnhuber Hans-Joachim

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main task is to estimate the qualitative and quantitative contribution of urban territories and precisely of the process of urbanization to the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC. Note that, on the contrary to many investigations that have considered direct anthropogenic emission of CO2(urbanized territories produce ca. 96–98% of it, we are interested in more subtle, and up until the present time, weaker processes associated with the conversion of the surrounding natural ecosystems and landscapes into urban lands. Such conversion inevitably takes place when cities are sprawling and additional "natural" lands are becoming "urbanized". Results In order to fulfil this task, we first develop a fundamental model of urban space, since the type of land cover within a city makes a difference for a local carbon cycle. Hence, a city is sub-divided by built-up, „green" (parks, etc. and informal settlements (favelas fractions. Another aspect is a sub-division of the additional two regions, which makes the total number reaching eight regions, while the UN divides the world by six. Next, the basic model of the local carbon cycle for urbanized territories is built. We consider two processes: carbon emissions as a result of conversion of natural lands caused by urbanization; and the transformation of carbon flows by "urbanized" ecosystems; when carbon, accumulated by urban vegetation, is exported to the neighbouring territories. The total carbon flow in the model depends, in general, on two groups of parameters. The first includes the NPP, and the sum of living biomass and dead organic matter of ecosystems involved in the process of urbanization, and namely them we calculate here, using a new more realistic approach and taking into account the difference in regional cities' evolution. Conclusion There is also another group of parameters, dealing with the areas of urban territories, and their annual increments. A method of dynamic forecasting

  9. Dry Air Cooler Modeling for Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moisseytsev, A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sienicki, J. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lv, Q. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-07-28

    Modeling for commercially available and cost effective dry air coolers such as those manufactured by Harsco Industries has been implemented in the Argonne National Laboratory Plant Dynamics Code for system level dynamic analysis of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton cycles. The modeling can now be utilized to optimize and simulate sCO2 Brayton cycles with dry air cooling whereby heat is rejected directly to the atmospheric heat sink without the need for cooling towers that require makeup water for evaporative losses. It has sometimes been stated that a benefit of the sCO2 Brayton cycle is that it enables dry air cooling implying that the Rankine steam cycle does not. A preliminary and simple examination of a Rankine superheated steam cycle and an air-cooled condenser indicates that dry air cooling can be utilized with both cycles provided that the cycle conditions are selected appropriately

  10. Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

  11. Exploring global carbon turnover and radiocarbon cycling in terrestrial biosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graven, H. D.; Warren, H.

    2017-12-01

    The uptake of carbon into terrestrial ecosystems through net primary productivity (NPP) and the turnover of that carbon through various pathways are the fundamental drivers of changing carbon stocks on land, in addition to human-induced and natural disturbances. Terrestrial biosphere models use different formulations for carbon uptake and release, resulting in a range of values in NPP of 40-70 PgC/yr and biomass turnover times of about 25-40 years for the preindustrial period in current-generation models from CMIP5. Biases in carbon uptake and turnover impact simulated carbon uptake and storage in the historical period and later in the century under changing climate and CO2 concentration, however evaluating global-scale NPP and carbon turnover is challenging. Scaling up of plot-scale measurements involves uncertainty due to the large heterogeneity across ecosystems and biomass types, some of which are not well-observed. We are developing the modelling of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models, with a particular focus on decadal 14C dynamics after the nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s-60s, including the impact of carbon flux trends and variability on 14C cycling. We use an estimate of the total inventory of excess 14C in the biosphere constructed by Naegler and Levin (2009) using a 14C budget approach incorporating estimates of total 14C produced by the weapons tests and atmospheric and oceanic 14C observations. By simulating radiocarbon in simple biosphere box models using carbon fluxes from the CMIP5 models, we find that carbon turnover is too rapid in many of the simple models - the models appear to take up too much 14C and release it too quickly. Therefore many CMIP5 models may also simulate carbon turnover that is too rapid. A caveat is that the simple box models we use may not adequately represent carbon dynamics in the full-scale models. Explicit simulation of radiocarbon in terrestrial biosphere models would allow more robust evaluation of biosphere

  12. A Study of the Carbon Cycle Using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Gelaro, Ron; Ott, Lesley; Putman, Bill; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Koster, Randy; Lee, Eunjee; Oda, Tom; Weir, Brad; Zeng, Fanwei

    2018-01-01

    The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been developed in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. From its roots in chemical transport and as a General Circulation Model, the GEOS model has been extended to an Earth System Model based on a modular construction using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), combining elements developed in house in the GMAO with others that are imported through collaborative research. It is used extensively for research and for product generation, both as a free-running model and as the core of the GMAO's data assimilation system. In recent years, the GMAO's modeling and assimilation efforts have been strongly supported by Piers Sellers, building on both his earlier legacy as an observationally oriented model developer and his post-astronaut career as a dynamic leader into new territory. Piers' long-standing interest in the carbon cycle and the combination of models with observations motivates this presentation, which will focus on the representation of the carbon cycle in the GEOS Earth System Model. Examples will include: (i) the progression from specified land-atmosphere surface fluxes to computations with an interactive model component (Catchment-CN), along with constraints on vegetation distributions using satellite observations; (ii) the use of high-resolution satellite observations to constrain human-generated inputs to the atmosphere; (iii) studies of the consistency of the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations with those in the model simulations. The presentation will focus on year-to-year variations in elements of the carbon cycle, specifically on how the observations can inform the representation of mechanisms in the model and lead to integrity in global carbon dioxide simulations. Further, applications of the GEOS model to the planning of new carbon-climate observations will be addressed, as an example of the work that was strongly supported by

  13. The oceanic response to carbon emissions over the next century: investigation using three ocean carbon cycle models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuck, A.; Tyrrell, T.; Holligan, P.M.; Totterdell, I.J.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study of coupled atmospheric carbon dioxide and the biosphere found alarming sensitivity of next-century atmospheric pCO 2 (and hence planetary temperature) to uncertainties in terrestrial processes. Here we investigate whether there is similar sensitivity associated with uncertainties in the behaviour of the ocean carbon cycle. We investigate this important question using three models of the ocean carbon cycle of varying complexity: (1) a new three-box oceanic carbon cycle model; (2) the HILDA multibox model with high vertical resolution at low latitudes; (3) the Hadley Centre ocean general circulation model (HadOCC). These models were used in combination to assess the quantitative significance (to year 2100 pCO 2 ) of potential changes to the ocean stimulated by global warming and other anthropogenic activities over the period 2000-2100. It was found that an increase in sea surface temperature and a decrease in the mixing rate due to stratification give rise to the greatest relative changes in pCO 2 , both being positive feedbacks. We failed to find any comparable large sensitivity due to the ocean

  14. Global carbon monoxide cycle: Modeling and data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, Avelino F., Jr.

    The overarching goal of this dissertation is to develop robust, spatially and temporally resolved CO sources, using global chemical transport modeling, CO measurements from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL) and Measurement of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), under the framework of Bayesian synthesis inversion. To rigorously quantify the CO sources, I conducted five sets of inverse analyses, with each set investigating specific methodological and scientific issues. The first two inverse analyses separately explored two different CO observations to estimate CO sources by region and sector. Under a range of scenarios relating to inverse methodology and data quality issues, top-down estimates using CMDL CO surface and MOPITT CO remote-sensed measurements show consistent results particularly on a significantly large fossil fuel/biofuel (FFBF) emission in East Asia than present bottom-up estimates. The robustness of this estimate is strongly supported by forward and inverse modeling studies in the region particularly from TRansport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign. The use of high-resolution measurement for the first time in CO inversion also draws attention to a methodology issue that the range of estimates from the scenarios is larger than posterior uncertainties, suggesting that estimate uncertainties may be underestimated. My analyses highlight the utility of top-down approach to provide additional constraints on present global estimates by also pointing to other discrepancies including apparent underestimation of FFBF from Africa/Latin America and biomass burning (BIOM) sources in Africa, southeast Asia and north-Latin America, indicating inconsistencies on our current understanding of fuel use and land-use patterns in these regions. Inverse analysis using MOPITT is extended to determine the extent of MOPITT information and estimate monthly regional CO sources. A major finding, which is consistent with other

  15. Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

    2017-05-22

    The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

  16. Simulating root carbon storage with a coupled carbon — Water cycle root model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleidon, A.; Heimann, M.

    1996-12-01

    Is it possible to estimate carbon allocation to fine roots from the water demands of the vegetation? We assess this question by applying a root model which is based on optimisation principles. The model uses a new formulation of water uptake by fine roots, which is necessary to explicitly take into account the highly dynamic and non-steady process of water uptake. Its carbon dynamics are driven by maximising the water uptake while keeping maintenance costs at a minimum. We apply the model to a site in northern Germany and check averaged vertical fine root biomass distribution against measured data. The model reproduces the observed values fairly well and the approach seems promising. However, more validation is necessary, especially on the predicted dynamics of the root biomass.

  17. Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Goll

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial carbon (C cycle models applied for climate projections simulate a strong increase in net primary productivity (NPP due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. These models usually neglect the limited availability of nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P, nutrients that commonly limit plant growth and soil carbon turnover. To investigate how the projected C sequestration is altered when stoichiometric constraints on C cycling are considered, we incorporated a P cycle into the land surface model JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg, which already includes representations of coupled C and N cycles.

    The model reveals a distinct geographic pattern of P and N limitation. Under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario, the accumulated land C uptake between 1860 and 2100 is 13% (particularly at high latitudes and 16% (particularly at low latitudes lower in simulations with N and P cycling, respectively, than in simulations without nutrient cycles. The combined effect of both nutrients reduces land C uptake by 25% compared to simulations without N or P cycling. Nutrient limitation in general may be biased by the model simplicity, but the ranking of limitations is robust against the parameterization and the inflexibility of stoichiometry. After 2100, increased temperature and high CO2 concentration cause a shift from N to P limitation at high latitudes, while nutrient limitation in the tropics declines. The increase in P limitation at high-latitudes is induced by a strong increase in NPP and the low P sorption capacity of soils, while a decline in tropical NPP due to high autotrophic respiration rates alleviates N and P limitations. The quantification of P limitation remains challenging. The poorly constrained processes of soil P sorption and biochemical mineralization are identified as the main uncertainties in the strength of P limitation

  18. Changing global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canadell, Pep

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) is the single largest human perturbation on the earth's radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove or emit C02. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, we show new trends in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric C02 has reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the C02 growth results from the combination of several changes in properties of the carbon cycle, including: acceleration of anthropogenic carbon emissions; increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. We discuss in more detail some of the possible causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon sinks on land and oceans, such as the decreased net sink in the Southern Ocean and on terrestrial mid-latitudes due to world-wide occurrence of drought. All these changes reported here characterise a carbon cycle that is generating stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected

  19. The Contemporary Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, R. A.

    2003-12-01

    The global carbon cycle refers to the exchanges of carbon within and between four major reservoirs: the atmosphere, the oceans, land, and fossil fuels. Carbon may be transferred from one reservoir to another in seconds (e.g., the fixation of atmospheric CO2 into sugar through photosynthesis) or over millennia (e.g., the accumulation of fossil carbon (coal, oil, gas) through deposition and diagenesis of organic matter). This chapter emphasizes the exchanges that are important over years to decades and includes those occurring over the scale of months to a few centuries. The focus will be on the years 1980-2000 but our considerations will broadly include the years ˜1850-2100. Chapter 8.09, deals with longer-term processes that involve rates of carbon exchange that are small on an annual timescale (weathering, vulcanism, sedimentation, and diagenesis).The carbon cycle is important for at least three reasons. First, carbon forms the structure of all life on the planet, making up ˜50% of the dry weight of living things. Second, the cycling of carbon approximates the flows of energy around the Earth, the metabolism of natural, human, and industrial systems. Plants transform radiant energy into chemical energy in the form of sugars, starches, and other forms of organic matter; this energy, whether in living organisms or dead organic matter, supports food chains in natural ecosystems as well as human ecosystems, not the least of which are industrial societies habituated (addicted?) to fossil forms of energy for heating, transportation, and generation of electricity. The increased use of fossil fuels has led to a third reason for interest in the carbon cycle. Carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), forms two of the most important greenhouse gases. These gases contribute to a natural greenhouse effect that has kept the planet warm enough to evolve and support life (without the greenhouse effect the Earth's average temperature would be -33

  20. Carbon cycle makeover

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canfield, Donald Eugene; Kump, Lee R.

    2013-01-01

    remaining in sediments after respiration leave a residual of oxygen in the atmosphere. The source of oxygen to the atmosphere represented by organic matter burial is balanced by oxygen sinks associated with rock weathering and chemical reaction with volcanic gases. This is the long-term carbon and oxygen...... geochemical cycle. But Earth is an old planet, and oxygen levels have changed through time (2). On page 540 of this issue, Schrag et al. (3) challenge the most commonly used geochemical approach to assess long-term changes in the coupled oxygen and carbon cycles....

  1. The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale : modeling, uncertainties and policy relevance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minnen, van J.G.

    2008-01-01

    Contains the chapters: The importance of three centuries of climate and land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle; and The terrestrial C cycle and its role in the climate change policy

  2. Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: processes, data, models, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuguang Liu; Ben Bond-Lamberty; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rodrigo Vargas; Shuqing Zhao; Jing Chen; Steven L. Edburg; Yueming Hu; Jinxun Liu; A. David McGuire; Jingfeng Xiao; Robert Keane; Wenping Yuan; Jianwu Tang; Yiqi Luo; Christopher Potter; Jennifer Oeding

    2011-01-01

    Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some...

  3. Exploring diurnal and seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle with GISS Model E2 GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.

    2017-12-01

    The ability to properly model surface carbon fluxes on the diurnal and seasonal time scale is a necessary requirement for understanding of the global carbon cycle. It is also one of the most challenging tasks faced by modern General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to complexity of the algorithms and variety of relevant spatial and temporal scales. The observational data, though abundant, is difficult to interpret at the global scale, because flux tower observations are very sparse for large impact areas (such as Amazon and African rainforest and most of Siberia) and satellite missions often struggle to produce sufficiently high confidence data over the land and may be missing CO2 amounts near the surface due to the nature of the method. In this work we use the GISS Model E2 GCM to perform a subset of experiments proposed by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and relate the results to available observations.The GISS Model E2 GCM is currently equipped with a complete global carbon cycle algorithm. Its surface carbon fluxes are computed by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) over the land with observed leaf area index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and by the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) over the ocean. The propagation of atmospheric CO2 is performed by a generic Model E2 tracer algorithm, which is based on a quadratic upstream method (Prather 1986). We perform a series spin-up experiments for preindustrial climate conditions and fixed preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. First, we perform separate spin-up simulations each for terrestrial and ocean carbon. We then combine the spun-up states and perform a coupled spin-up simulation until the model reaches a sufficient equilibrium. We then release restrictions on CO2 concentration and allow it evolve freely, driven only by simulated surface fluxes. We then study the results of the unforced run, comparing the amplitude and the phase

  4. Evaluation and intercomparison of three-dimensional global marine carbon cycle models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldeira, K., LLNL

    1998-07-01

    -Reimer, 1990; Sarmiento et al., 1992, Najjar et al., 1992). These twin needs for the development of marine carbon cycle models are expressed in two of the main elements of JGOFS SMP: (1) extrapolation and prediction, and (2) global and regional balances of carbon and related biologically-active substances. We propose to address these program elements through a coordinated, multi-investigator project to evaluate and intercompare several 3-D global marine carbon cycle models.

  5. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

    2013-01-01

    Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

  6. A two-dimensional model of the passive coastal margin deep sedimentary carbon and methane cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Archer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a new geologic-time and basin-spatial scale model of the continental margin methane cycle. The model, SpongeBOB, is used to simulate evolution of the carbon cycle in a passive sedimentary continental margin in response to changing oceanographic and geologic forcing over a time scale of 200 million years. The geochemistry of the sediment column is altered by the addition of vertical high-permeability channels intended to mimic the effects of heterogeneity in the real sediment column due to faults, and produces results consistent with measured pore-water tracers SO42− and 129I. Pore water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC concentrations are consistent with chemical weathering (CaCO3 formation from igneous rocks at depth within the sediment column. The carbon isotopic composition of the DIC is consistent with a methane production efficiency from particulate organic carbon (POC of 50%, which is somewhat lower than redox balance with the H / C of organic matter in the model. The hydrate inventory in the model is somewhat less sensitive to temperature than our previous results with a one-dimensional model, quite sensitive to reasonable changes in POC, and extremely sensitive to the ability of methane bubbles to rise within the sediment column, and how far gas-phase methane can get through the sediment column before it redissolves when it reaches undersaturated conditions. Hydrate formation is also sensitive to deep respiration of migrating petroleum. Other phenomena which we simulated had only a small impact on the hydrate inventory, including thermogenic methane production and production/decomposition of dissolved organic carbon.

  7. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: limitations and implications of model calibration using eddy flux observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ichii

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models show large differences when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these differences is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of the condition of terrestrial ecosystems and future climate change. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of their carbon budgets, we investigated the utility of the eddy flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine – based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID, we conducted two simulations: (1 point simulations at four eddy flux sites in Japan and (2 spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings and a modified model (based on model parameter tuning using eddy flux data. Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using eddy flux data (GPP, RE and NEP, most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs. This study demonstrated that careful validation and calibration of models with available eddy flux data reduced model-by-model differences. Yet, site history, analysis of model structure changes, and more objective procedure of model calibration should be included in the further analysis.

  8. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: limitations and implications of model calibration using eddy flux observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models show large differences when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these differences is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of the condition of terrestrial ecosystems and future climate change. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of their carbon budgets, we investigated the utility of the eddy flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine - based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four eddy flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and a modified model (based on model parameter tuning using eddy flux data). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using eddy flux data (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs. This study demonstrated that careful validation and calibration of models with available eddy flux data reduced model-by-model differences. Yet, site history, analysis of model structure changes, and more objective procedure of model calibration should be included in the further analysis.

  9. Asia-MIP: Multi Model-data Synthesis of Terrestrial Carbon Cycles in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ito, A.; Kang, M.; Sasai, T.; SATO, H.; Ueyama, M.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.; Kim, J.

    2013-12-01

    Asia, which is characterized by monsoon climate and intense human activities, is one of the prominent understudied regions in terms of terrestrial carbon budgets and mechanisms of carbon exchange. To better understand terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia, we initiated multi-model and data intercomparison project in Asia (Asia-MIP). We analyzed outputs from multiple approaches: satellite-based observations (AVHRR and MODIS) and related products, empirically upscaled estimations (Support Vector Regression) using eddy-covariance observation network in Asia (AsiaFlux, CarboEastAsia, FLUXNET), ~10 terrestrial biosphere models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, LPJ, SEIB-DGVM, TRIFFID, VISIT models), and atmospheric inversion analysis (e.g. TransCom models). We focused on the two difference temporal coverage: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2010; data intensive period) scales. The regions of covering Siberia, Far East Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia (60-80E, 10S-80N), was analyzed in this study for assessing the magnitudes, interannual variability, and key driving factors of carbon cycles. We will report the progress of synthesis effort to quantify terrestrial carbon budget in Asia. First, we analyzed the recent trends in Gross Primary Productivities (GPP) using satellite-based observation (AVHRR) and multiple terrestrial biosphere models. We found both model outputs and satellite-based observation consistently show an increasing trend in GPP in most of the regions in Asia. Mechanisms of the GPP increase were analyzed using models, and changes in temperature and precipitation play dominant roles in GPP increase in boreal and temperate regions, whereas changes in atmospheric CO2 and precipitation are important in tropical regions. However, their relative contributions were different. Second, in the decadal analysis (2001-2010), we found that the negative GPP and carbon uptake anomalies in 2003 summer in Far East Asia is one of the largest

  10. Finite Element Modeling of Thermal Cycling Induced Microcracking in Carbon/Epoxy Triaxial Braided Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Binienda, Wieslaw K.; Morscher, Gregory; Martin, Richard E.

    2012-01-01

    The microcrack distribution and mass change in PR520/T700s and 3502/T700s carbon/epoxy braided composites exposed to thermal cycling was evaluated experimentally. Acoustic emission was utilized to record the crack initiation and propagation under cyclic thermal loading between -55 C and 120 C. Transverse microcrack morphology was investigated using X-ray Computed Tomography. Different performance of two kinds of composites was discovered and analyzed. Based on the observations of microcrack formation, a meso-mechanical finite element model was developed to obtain the resultant mechanical properties. The simulation results exhibited a decrease in strength and stiffness with increasing crack density. Strength and stiffness reduction versus crack densities in different orientations were compared. The changes of global mechanical behavior in both axial and transverse loading conditions were studied. Keywords: Thermal cycles; Microcrack; Finite Element Model; Braided Composite

  11. Arctic carbon cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christensen, Torben R; Rysgaard, SØREN; Bendtsen, JØRGEN; Else, Brent; Glud, Ronnie N; van Huissteden, J.; Parmentier, F.J.W.; Sachs, Torsten; Vonk, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    The marine Arctic is considered a net carbon sink, with large regional differences in uptake rates. More regional modelling and observational studies are required to reduce the uncertainty among current estimates. Robust projections for how the Arctic Ocean carbon sink may evolve in the future are

  12. Multi model and data analysis of terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia: From 2001 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Takahashi, K.; Suzuki, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.

    2009-12-01

    Accurate monitoring and modeling of the current status and their causes of interannual variations in terrestrial carbon cycle are important. Recently, many studies analyze using multiple methods (e.g. satellite data and ecosystem models) to clarify the underlain mechanisms and recent trend since each single methodology contains its own biases. The multi-model and data ensemble approach is a powerful method to clarify the current status and their underlain mechanisms. So far, many studies using multiple sources of data and models are conducted in North America, Europe, Africa, Amazon, and Japan, however, studies in monsoon Asia are lacking. In this study, we analyzed interannual variations in terrestrial carbon cycles in monsoon Asia, and evaluated current capability of remote sensing and ecosystem model to capture them based on multiple model and data sources; flux observations, remote sensing (e.g. MODIS, AVHRR, and VGT), and ecosystem models (e.g. SVM, BEAMS, CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ, and TRIFFID). The satellite observation and ecosystem models show clear characteristics in interannual variabilities in satellite-based NDVI and model-based GPP. These are characterized by (1) spring NDVI and modeled GPP anomalies related to temperature anomaly in mid and high latitudinal areas (positive anomalies in 2002 and 2005 and negative one in 2006), (2) NDVI and GPP anomalies in southeastern and central Asia related to precipitation (e.g. India from 2003-2006), and (3) summer NDVI and GPP anomalies in 2003 related to strong anomalies in solar radiations. NDVI anomalies related to radiation ones (2003 summer) were not accurately captured by terrestrial ecosystem models. For example, LPJ model rather shows GPP positive anomalies in Far East Asia regions probably caused by positive precipitation anomalies. Further analysis requires improvement of models to reproduce more consistent spatial patterns in NDVI anomaly, and longer term analysis (e.g. after 1982).

  13. Derivation of a northern-hemispheric biomass map for use in global carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Santoro, Maurizio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Wutzler, Thomas; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Kompter, Elisabeth; Levick, Shaun; Schmullius, Christiane

    2013-04-01

    (C)/ha(Forest)) and broadleaf/mixed forests (58.0 ± 22.1 Mg(C)/ha(Forest)), whereas boreal forests have a carbon density of only 40.0 ± 15.4 Mg(C)/ha(Forest). While European forest carbon stocks are relatively small, the carbon density is higher compared to the other continents. The derived biomass map substantially improves the knowledge on the current carbon stocks of the northern-hemispheric boreal and temperate forests, serving as a new benchmark for spatially explicit and consistent biomass mapping with moderate spatial resolution. This product can be of great value for global carbon cycle models as well as national carbon monitoring systems. Further investigations concentrate on improving biomass parameterizations and representations in such kind of models. The presented map will help to improve the simulation of biomass spatial patterns and variability and enables identifying the dominant influential factors like climatic conditions and disturbances.

  14. Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

    2010-08-01

    Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K

  15. Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tachiiri

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs, which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs, which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model; a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE; and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario.

    By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium

  16. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  17. LOSCAR: Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model v2.0.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Zeebe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LOSCAR model is designed to efficiently compute the partitioning of carbon between ocean, atmosphere, and sediments on time scales ranging from centuries to millions of years. While a variety of computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models are already available, many are missing a critical sediment component, which is indispensable for long-term integrations. One of LOSCAR's strengths is the coupling of ocean-atmosphere routines to a computationally efficient sediment module. This allows, for instance, adequate computation of CaCO3 dissolution, calcite compensation, and long-term carbon cycle fluxes, including weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks. The ocean component includes various biogeochemical tracers such as total carbon, alkalinity, phosphate, oxygen, and stable carbon isotopes. LOSCAR's configuration of ocean geometry is flexible and allows for easy switching between modern and paleo-versions. We have previously published applications of the model tackling future projections of ocean chemistry and weathering, pCO2 sensitivity to carbon cycle perturbations throughout the Cenozoic, and carbon/calcium cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The focus of the present contribution is the detailed description of the model including numerical architecture, processes and parameterizations, tuning, and examples of input and output. Typical CPU integration times of LOSCAR are of order seconds for several thousand model years on current standard desktop machines. The LOSCAR source code in C can be obtained from the author by sending a request to loscar.model@gmail.com.

  18. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  19. A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichii, Kazuhito; Murakami, Kazutaka; Mukai, Toshikazu; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Ogawa, Katsuro

    2003-01-01

    A simple Earth system model, the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model, has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO 2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model, the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model, and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model, which includes the greenhouse effect of CO 2 and H 2 O, and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model, which includes biospheric CO 2 fertilization, vegetation area variation, the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content, soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the 'business as usual' (IS92a) emission scenario, followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170, and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO 2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies, because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO 2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO 2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO 2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand, as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained, we have to quantify and constrain the effect more

  20. The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the implications of uncertainty in the carbon cycle for the cost of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations. Using a state of the art integrated assessment model, we find that uncertainty in our understanding of the carbon cycle has significant implications for the costs of a climate stabilization policy, with cost differences denominated in trillions of dollars. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle is equivalent to a change in concentration target of up to 100 ppmv. The impact of carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than those for climate sensitivity, and broadly comparable to the effect of uncertainty in technology availability

  1. A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

    2006-01-01

    This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

  2. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  3. Diagnosing and Assessing Uncertainties of the Carbon Cycle in Terrestrial Ecosystem Models from a Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Dungan, J. L.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

    2009-12-01

    We are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to characterize structural uncertainty in carbon fluxes and stocks estimates from different ecosystem models. The experiment uses public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. A set of diagnostics is developed to characterize the behavior of the models in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space, and to evaluate the simulated carbon cycle in an integrated way. The key findings of this study include that: (relative) optimal primary production is generally found in climate regions where the relationship between annual temperature (T, oC) and precipitation (P, mm) is defined by P = 50*T+500; the ratios between NPP and GPP are close to 50% on average, yet can vary between models and in different climate regions; the allocation of carbon to leaf growth represents a positive feedback to the primary production, and different approaches to constrain this process have significant impacts on the simulated carbon cycle; substantial differences in biomass stocks may be induced by small differences in the tissue turnover rate and the plant mortality; the mean residence time of soil carbon pools is strongly influenced by schemes of temperature regulations; non-respiratory disturbances (e.g., fires) are the main driver for NEP, yet its magnitudes vary between models. Overall, these findings indicate that although the structures of the models are similar, the uncertainties among them can be large, highlighting the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes or to assess vegetation-climate interactions.

  4. Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenton, T.M. [University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, UK and School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Williamson, M.S. [University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre, UK and School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); UK and National Oceanography Centre, Tyndall Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Edwards, N.R. [Open University, Earth Sciences, Milton Keynes (United Kingdom); Marsh, R.; Shepherd, J.G. [UK and National Oceanography Centre, Tyndall Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Price, A.R.; Cox, S.J. [University of Southampton, Southampton e-Science Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom); Ridgwell, A.J. [University of British Columbia, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Vancouver (Canada)

    2006-06-15

    A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8-3.3 C and predict atmospheric CO{sub 2} close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100-15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420-5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5-12.5 C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year{sup -1}. Under 'business as usual', the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year{sup -1}. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6 C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4-10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. (orig.)

  5. Integrated model-experimental framework to assess carbon cycle components in disturbed mountainous terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; McNellis, B.; Walsh, E.

    2017-12-01

    In forests vulnerable to drought and fire, there is critical need for in situ carbon and water balance measurements that can be integrated with earth system modeling to predict climate feedbacks. Model development can be improved by measurements that inform a mechanistic understanding of the component fluxes of net carbon uptake (i.e., NPP, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration) and water use, with specific focus on responses to climate and disturbance. By integrating novel field-based instrumental technology, existing datasets, and state-of-the-art earth system modeling, we are attempting to 1) quantify the spatial and temporal impacts of forest thinning on regional biogeochemical cycling and climate 2) evaluate the impact of forest thinning on forest resilience to drought and disturbance in the Northern Rockies ecoregion. The combined model-experimental framework enables hypothesis testing that would otherwise be impossible because the use of new in situ high temporal resolution field technology allows for research in remote and mountainous terrains that have been excluded from eddy-covariance techniques. Our preliminary work has revealed some underlying difficulties with the new instrumentation that has led to new ideas and modified methods to correctly measure the component fluxes. Our observations of C balance following the thinning operations indicate that the recovery period (source to sink) is longer than hypothesized. Finally, we have incorporated a new plant functional type parameterization for Northern Rocky mixed-conifer into our simulation modeling using regional and site observations.

  6. Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schneider

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

  7. Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

    2018-04-01

    In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon-climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon-climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon-climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment

  8. Towards integrated modelling of soil organic carbon cycling at landscape scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viaud, V.

    2009-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is recognized as a key factor of the chemical, biological and physical quality of soil. Numerous models of soil organic matter turnover have been developed since the 1930ies, most of them dedicated to plot scale applications. More recently, they have been applied to national scales to establish the inventories of carbon stocks directed by the Kyoto protocol. However, only few studies consider the intermediate landscape scale, where the spatio-temporal pattern of land management practices, its interactions with the physical environment and its impacts on SOC dynamics can be investigated to provide guidelines for sustainable management of soils in agricultural areas. Modelling SOC cycling at this scale requires accessing accurate spatially explicit input data on soils (SOC content, bulk density, depth, texture) and land use (land cover, farm practices), and combining both data in a relevant integrated landscape representation. The purpose of this paper is to present a first approach to modelling SOC evolution in a small catchment. The impact of the way landscape is represented on SOC stocks in the catchment was more specifically addressed. This study was based on the field map, the soil survey, the crop rotations and land management practices of an actual 10-km² agricultural catchment located in Brittany (France). RothC model was used to drive soil organic matter dynamics. Landscape representation in the form of a systematic regular grid, where driving properties vary continuously in space, was compared to a representation where landscape is subdivided into a set of homogeneous geographical units. This preliminary work enabled to identify future needs to improve integrated soil-landscape modelling in agricultural areas.

  9. A global model of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles for the terrestrial biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Carbon storage by many terrestrial ecosystems can be limited by nutrients, predominantly nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P, in addition to other environmental constraints, water, light and temperature. However the spatial distribution and the extent of both N and P limitation at the global scale have not been quantified. Here we have developed a global model of carbon (C, nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P cycles for the terrestrial biosphere. Model estimates of steady state C and N pool sizes and major fluxes between plant, litter and soil pools, under present climate conditions, agree well with various independent estimates. The total amount of C in the terrestrial biosphere is 2767 Gt C, and the C fractions in plant, litter and soil organic matter are 19%, 4% and 77%. The total amount of N is 135 Gt N, with about 94% stored in the soil, 5% in the plant live biomass, and 1% in litter. We found that the estimates of total soil P and its partitioning into different pools in soil are quite sensitive to biochemical P mineralization. The total amount of P (plant biomass, litter and soil excluding occluded P in soil is 17 Gt P in the terrestrial biosphere, 33% of which is stored in the soil organic matter if biochemical P mineralization is modelled, or 31 Gt P with 67% in soil organic matter otherwise.

    This model was used to derive the global distribution and uncertainty of N or P limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems at steady state under present conditions. Our model estimates that the net primary productivity of most tropical evergreen broadleaf forests and tropical savannahs is reduced by about 20% on average by P limitation, and most of the remaining biomes are N limited; N limitation is strongest in high latitude deciduous needle leaf forests, and reduces its net primary productivity by up to 40% under present conditions.

  10. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  11. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  12. Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Meinshausen

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a, we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3. If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4 to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC, when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC

  13. Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

    2018-05-01

    This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

  14. Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adloff

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial times (PI. In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon–climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon–climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon–climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment

  15. Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Zhao, Shuqing; Chen, Jing; Edburg, Steven L.; Hu, Yueming; Liu, Jinxun; McGuire, A. David; Xiao, Jingfeng; Keane, Robert; Yuan, Wenping; Tang, Jianwu; Luo, Yiqi; Potter, Christopher; Oeding, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty

  16. [Simulation of carbon cycle in Qianyanzhou artificial masson pine forest ecosystem and sensitivity analysis of model parameters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Na; Yu, Gui-rui

    2010-07-01

    By using modified carbon-water cycle model EPPML (ecosystem productivity process model for landscape), the carbon absorption and respiration in Qianyanzhou artificial masson pine forest ecosystem in 2003 and 2004 were simulated, and the sensitivity of the model parameters was analyzed. The results showed that EPPML could effectively simulate the carbon cycle process of this ecosystem. The simulated annual values and the seasonal variations of gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) not only fitted well with the measured data, but also reflected the major impacts of extreme weather on carbon flows. The artificial masson pine forest ecosystem in Qianyanzhou was a strong carbon sink in both 2003 and 2004. Due to the coupling of high temperature and severe drought in the growth season in 2003, the carbon absorption in 2003 was lower than that in 2004. The annual NEP in 2003 and 2004 was 481.8 and 516.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), respectively. The key climatic factors giving important impacts on the seasonal variations of carbon cycle were solar radiation during early growth season, drought during peak growth season, and precipitation during post-peak growth season. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) and net primary productivity (NPP) had the similar seasonal variations. Soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) was mainly affected by soil temperature at yearly scale, and by soil water content at monthly scale. During wet growth season, the higher the soil water content, the lower the Rh was; during dry growth season, the higher the precipitation during the earlier two months, the higher the Rh was. The maximum RuBP carboxylation rate at 25 degrees C (Vm25), specific leaf area (SLA), maximum leaf nitrogen content (LNm), average leaf nitrogen content (LN), and conversion coefficient of biomass to carbon (C/B) had the greatest influence on annual NEP. Different carbon cycle process could have different responses to sensitive

  17. A microbial biogeochemistry network for soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and methane flux: model structure and application to Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Song, C.; Wang, Y.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Lipson, D.; Shi, X.; Zona, D.; Song, X.; Yuan, F.; Oechel, W. C.; Thornton, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    A microbial model is introduced for simulating microbial mechanisms controlling soil carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycling and methane fluxes. The model is built within the CN (carbon-nitrogen) framework of Community Land Model 4.5, named as CLM-Microbe to emphasize its explicit representation of microbial mechanisms to biogeochemistry. Based on the CLM4.5, three new pools were added: bacteria, fungi, and dissolved organic matter. It has 11 pools and 34 transitional processes, compared with 8 pools and 9 transitional flow in the CLM4.5. The dissolve organic carbon was linked with a new microbial functional group based methane module to explicitly simulate methane production, oxidation, transport and their microbial controls. Comparing with CLM4.5-CN, the CLM-Microbe model has a number of new features, (1) microbial control on carbon and nitrogen flows between soil carbon/nitrogen pools; (2) an implicit representation of microbial community structure as bacteria and fungi; (3) a microbial functional-group based methane module. The model sensitivity analysis suggests the importance of microbial carbon allocation parameters on soil biogeochemistry and microbial controls on methane dynamics. Preliminary simulations validate the model's capability for simulating carbon and nitrogen dynamics and methane at a number of sites across the globe. The regional application to Asia has verified the model in simulating microbial mechanisms in controlling methane dynamics at multiple scales.

  18. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: reducing uncertainties in model outputs among different terrestrial biosphere models using flux observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

    2009-08-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.

  19. The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibelin, A.L

    2007-05-15

    ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

  20. The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibelin, A L

    2007-05-15

    ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

  1. Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molen, M.K. van der; Dolman, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Eglin, T.; Gobron, N.; Law, B.E.; Meir, P.; Peters, P.; Philips, O.L.; Reichstein, M.; Chen, T.; Dekker, S.C.; Doubkova, M.; Friedl, M.A.; Jung, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Jeu, R.A.M. de; Kruijt, B.; Ohta, T.; Rebel, K.T.; Plummer, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Sitch, S.; Teuling, A.J.; Werf, G.R. van der; Wang, G.

    2011-01-01

    Drought as an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle interacts with the carbon cycle differently than the ‘gradual’ climate change. During drought plants respond physiologically and structurally to prevent excessive water loss according to species-specific water use strategies. This has

  2. Prediction model for carbonation depth of concrete subjected to freezing-thawing cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Qian Hui; Li, Qiang; Guan, Xiao; Xian Zou, Ying

    2018-03-01

    Through the indoor simulation test of the concrete durability under the coupling effect of freezing-thawing and carbonation, the variation regularity of concrete neutralization depth under freezing-thawing and carbonation was obtained. Based on concrete carbonation mechanism, the relationship between the air diffusion coefficient and porosity in concrete was analyzed and the calculation method of porosity in Portland cement concrete and fly ash cement concrete was investigated, considering the influence of the freezing-thawing damage on the concrete diffusion coefficient. Finally, a prediction model of carbonation depth of concrete under freezing-thawing circumstance was established. The results obtained using this prediction model agreed well with the experimental test results, and provided a theoretical reference and basis for the concrete durability analysis under multi-factor environments.

  3. Accounting for Forest Harvest and Wildfire in a Spatially-distributed Carbon Cycle Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Ritts, W.; Kennedy, R. E.; Yang, Z.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    Forests are subject to natural disturbances in the form of wildfire, as well as management-related disturbances in the form of timber harvest. These disturbance events have strong impacts on local and regional carbon budgets, but quantifying the associated carbon fluxes remains challenging. The ORCA Project aims to quantify regional net ecosystem production (NEP) and net biome production (NBP) in Oregon, California, and Washington, and we have adopted an integrated approach based on Landsat imagery and ecosystem modeling. To account for stand-level carbon fluxes, the Biome-BGC model has been adapted to simulate multiple severities of fire and harvest. New variables include snags, direct fire emissions, and harvest removals. New parameters include fire-intensity-specific combustion factors for each carbon pool (based on field measurements) and proportional removal rates for harvest events. To quantify regional fluxes, the model is applied in a spatially-distributed mode over the domain of interest, with disturbance history derived from a time series of Landsat images. In stand-level simulations, the post disturbance transition from negative (source) to positive (sink) NEP is delayed approximately a decade in the case of high severity fire compared to harvest. Simulated direct pyrogenic emissions range from 11 to 25 % of total non-soil ecosystem carbon. In spatial mode application over Oregon and California, the sum of annual pyrogenic emissions and harvest removals was generally less that half of total NEP, resulting in significant carbon sequestration on the land base. Spatially and temporally explicit simulation of disturbance-related carbon fluxes will contribute to our ability to evaluate effects of management on regional carbon flux, and in our ability to assess potential biospheric feedbacks to climate change mediated by changing disturbance regimes.

  4. Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

    2014-01-01

    Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

  5. Could a secular increase in organic burial explain the rise of oxygen? Insights from a geological carbon cycle model constrained by the carbon isotope record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, J.; Kipp, M.; Catling, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    The stable isotopes of carbon in marine sedimentary rock provide a window into the evolution of the Earth system. Conventionally, a relatively constant carbon isotope ratio in marine sedimentary rocks has been interpreted as implying constant organic carbon burial relative to total carbon burial. Because organic carbon burial corresponds to net oxygen production from photosynthesis, it follows that secular changes in the oxygen source flux cannot explain the dramatic rise of oxygen over Earth history. Instead, secular declines in oxygen sink fluxes are often invoked as causes for the rise of oxygen. However, constant fractional organic burial is difficult to reconcile with tentative evidence for low phosphate concentrations in the Archean ocean, which would imply lower marine productivity and—all else being equal—less organic carbon burial than today. The conventional interpretation of the carbon isotope record rests on the untested assumption that the isotopic ratio of carbon inputs into the ocean reflect mantle isotopic values throughout Earth history. In practice, differing rates of carbonate and organic weathering will allow for changes in isotopic inputs, as suggested by [1] and [2]. However, these inputs can not vary freely because large changes in isotopic inputs would induce secular trends in carbon reservoirs, which are not observed in the isotope record. We apply a geological carbon cycle model to all Earth history, tracking carbon isotopes in crustal, mantle, and ocean reservoirs. Our model is constrained by the carbon isotope record such that we can determine the extent to which large changes in organic burial are permitted. We find both constant organic burial and 3-5 fold increases in organic burial since 4.0 Ga can be reconciled with the carbon isotope record. Changes in the oxygen source flux thus need to be reconsidered as a possible contributor to Earth's oxygenation. [1] L. A. Derry, Organic carbon cycling and the lithosphere, in Treatise on

  6. Closing carbon cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patel, Martin

    1999-01-01

    Fossil fuels are used as raw materials for the manufacture of synthetic organic materials, e.g. plastics, fibres, synthetic rubber, paints, solvents, fertilisers, surfactants, lubricants and bitumen. Since fossil carbon is embodied in these products they may be particularly relevant to climate

  7. Refining the Neoproterozoic and Early Paleozoic record of carbon cycling and seawater chemistry using quantitative geochemical models of redox dynamics and carbonate diagenesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Anne-Sofie Crüger

    based records. Despite the prevalence of diagenesis in sedimentary rocks there are currently few robust geochemical tools capable of providing quantitative information on the extent of alteration from the primary signal. In order to fill this gap, Chapter 3 presents a numerical model of marine carbonate...... through diagenesis and provide more robust estimates for past seawater chemistry. Ancient carbonate rocks with extreme negative carbon isotopes are found worldwide bracketing the Marinoan glaciation (∼635 Ma). There is no scientific consensus as to whether these excursions originate from a primary...... perturbation in the carbon cycle or from diagenetic alterations. Chapter 4 merges new measurements of calcium, magnesium, and strontium isotopes in these sediments with the diagenetic model developed in Chapter 3 to offer new insights into the potential origin of these extreme isotope anomalies....

  8. Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Meinshausen

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about

  9. Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colombo R

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

  10. Development of a Model of Geophysical and Geochemical Controls on Abiotic Carbon Cycling on Earth-Like Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neveu, M.; Felton, R.; Domagal-Goldman, S. D.; Desch, S. J.; Arney, G. N.

    2017-12-01

    About 20 Earth-sized planets (0.6-1.6 Earth masses and radii) have now been discovered beyond our solar system [1]. Although such planets are prime targets in the upcoming search for atmospheric biosignatures, their composition, geology, and climate are essentially unconstrained. Yet, developing an understanding of how these factors influence planetary evolution through time and space is essential to establishing abiotic backgrounds against which any deviations can provide evidence for biological activity. To this end, we are building coupled geophysical-geochemical models of abiotic carbon cycling on such planets. Our models are controlled by atmospheric factors such as temperature and composition, and compute interior inputs to atmospheric species. They account for crustal weathering, ocean-atmosphere equilibria, and exchange with the deep interior as a function of planet composition and size (and, eventually, age).Planets in other solar systems differ from the Earth not only in their bulk physical properties, but also likely in their bulk chemical composition [2], which influences key parameters such as the vigor of mantle convection and the near-surface redox state. Therefore, simulating how variations in such parameters affect carbon cycling requires us to simulate the above processes from first principles, rather than by using arbitrary parameterizations derived from observations as is often done with models of carbon cycling on Earth [3] or extrapolations thereof [4]. As a first step, we have developed a kinetic model of crustal weathering using the PHREEQC code [5] and kinetic data from [6]. We will present the ability of such a model to replicate Earth's carbon cycle using, for the time being, parameterizations for surface-interior-atmosphere exchange processes such as volcanism (e.g., [7]).[1] exoplanet.eu, 7/28/2017.[2] Young et al. (2014) Astrobiology 14, 603-626.[3] Lerman & Wu (2008) Kinetics of Global Geochemical Cycles. In Kinetics of Water

  11. Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

    2017-12-01

    One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal

  12. Depositional models of the shallow marine carbonates in the geochemical cycle. Busshitsu junkan ni okeru asaumi tansan'engan no taiseki model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamori, T [Tohoku University, Sendai (Japan). Institute of Geology and Paleontology

    1993-06-15

    This paper summarizes depositional models of carbonates related to carbon circulation on the earth surface. The paper lists the following examples of modelling the Recent coral reefs: A model that divides coral reefs into several boxes corresponding to geographies, and estimates organic and inorganic carbon production in each box; and a model that discusses seawater flows to estimate fluxes of organic and inorganic carbons between the boxes and between the reefs and open seas. Carbon circulation in a time scale of the Quaternary may be described appropriately by the box model corresponding to the condition of deposition and dissolution of the carbonate rocks. Several examples of modelling oceans and coral reefs are described briefly. The paper lists a model by Berner et al. that notes migration of carbon, Ca, and Mg among five boxes of Ca-Mg silicate, ocean, atmosphere, calcite, and dolomite regarding the geochemical cycle during about 600 million years in the Phanerozoic era. It also explains a model developed from the former model. 39 refs., 1 fig.

  13. An exercise to teach quantitative analysis and modeling using Excel-based analysis of the carbon cycle in the anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Heather

    2013-04-01

    A computer modeling exercise was created to allows students to investigate the consequences of fossil fuel burning and land use change on the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Students work with a simple numerical model of the carbon cycle which is rendered in Excel, and conduct a set of different sensitivity tests with different amounts and rate of C additions, and then graph and discuss their results. In the recommended approach, the model is provided to students without the biosphere and in class the formulas to integrate this module are typed into Excel simultaneously by instructor and students, helping students understand how the larger model is set up. In terms of content, students learn to recognize the redistribution of fossil fuel carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and distinguish the consequences of rapid vs slow rates of addition of fossil fuel CO2 and the reasons for this difference. Students become familiar with the use of formulas in Excel and working with a large (300 rows, 20 columns) worksheet and gain competence in graphical representation of multiple scenarios. Students learn to appreciate the power and limitations of numerical models of complex cycles, the concept of inverse and forward models, and sensitivity tests. Finally, students learn that a reasonable hypothesis, may be "reasonable" but still not quantitatively sufficient - in this case, that the "Industrial Revolution" was not the source of increasing atmospheric CO2 from 1750-1900. The described activity is available to educators on the Teach the Earth portal of the Science Education Research Center (SERC) http://serc.carleton.edu/quantskills/activities/68751.html.

  14. Carbon Cycling with Nuclear Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Klaus S.

    2011-11-01

    Liquid hydrocarbon fuels like gasoline, diesel or jet fuel are the most efficient ways of delivering energy to the transportation sector, in particular cars, ships and airplanes. Unfortunately, their use nearly unavoidably leads to the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Unless an equivalent amount is removed from the air, the carbon dioxide will accumulate and significantly contribute to the man-made greenhouse effect. If fuels are made from biomass, the capture of carbon dioxide is a natural part of the cycle. Here, we discuss technical options for capturing carbon dioxide at much faster rates. We outline the basic concepts, discuss how such capture technologies could be made affordable and show how they could be integrated into a larger system approach. In the short term, the likely source of the hydrocarbon fuels is oil or gas; in the longer term, technologies that can provide energy to remove oxygen from carbon dioxide and water molecules and combine the remaining components into liquid fuels make it possible to recycle carbon between fuels and carbon dioxide in an entirely abiotic process. Here we focus on renewable and nuclear energy options for producing liquid fuels and show how air capture combined with fuel synthesis could be more economic than a transition to electric cars or hydrogen-fueled cars.

  15. Response of the carbon cycle in an intermediate complexity model to the different climate configurations of the last nine interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouttes, Nathaelle; Swingedouw, Didier; Roche, Didier M.; Sanchez-Goni, Maria F.; Crosta, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric CO2 levels during interglacials prior to the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, ˜ 430 ka BP) were around 40 ppm lower than after the MBE. The reasons for this difference remain unclear. A recent hypothesis proposed that changes in oceanic circulation, in response to different external forcings before and after the MBE, might have increased the ocean carbon storage in pre-MBE interglacials, thus lowering atmospheric CO2. Nevertheless, no quantitative estimate of this hypothesis has been produced up to now. Here we use an intermediate complexity model including the carbon cycle to evaluate the response of the carbon reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean and land in response to the changes of orbital forcings, ice sheet configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last nine interglacials. We show that the ocean takes up more carbon during pre-MBE interglacials in agreement with data, but the impact on atmospheric CO2 is limited to a few parts per million. Terrestrial biosphere is simulated to be less developed in pre-MBE interglacials, which reduces the storage of carbon on land and increases atmospheric CO2. Accounting for different simulated ice sheet extents modifies the vegetation cover and temperature, and thus the carbon reservoir distribution. Overall, atmospheric CO2 levels are lower during these pre-MBE simulated interglacials including all these effects, but the magnitude is still far too small. These results suggest a possible misrepresentation of some key processes in the model, such as the magnitude of ocean circulation changes, or the lack of crucial mechanisms or internal feedbacks, such as those related to permafrost, to fully account for the lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations during pre-MBE interglacials.

  16. Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.; Catling, David C.

    2018-04-01

    The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6‑0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0‑0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9‑0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering.

  17. Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N; Catling, David C

    2018-04-17

    The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0-50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from [Formula: see text] (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO 2 , which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  18. Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian J.; Canfield, Donald Eugene

    2011-01-01

    Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features...

  19. Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Mingjie; Fisher, Joshua B; Brzostek, Edward R; Phillips, Richard P

    2016-03-01

    Plants typically expend a significant portion of their available carbon (C) on nutrient acquisition - C that could otherwise support growth. However, given that most global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) do not include the C cost of nutrient acquisition, these models fail to represent current and future constraints to the land C sink. Here, we integrated a plant productivity-optimized nutrient acquisition model - the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen Model - into one of the most widely used TBMs, the Community Land Model. Global plant nitrogen (N) uptake is dynamically simulated in the coupled model based on the C costs of N acquisition from mycorrhizal roots, nonmycorrhizal roots, N-fixing microbes, and retranslocation (from senescing leaves). We find that at the global scale, plants spend 2.4 Pg C yr(-1) to acquire 1.0 Pg N yr(-1) , and that the C cost of N acquisition leads to a downregulation of global net primary production (NPP) by 13%. Mycorrhizal uptake represented the dominant pathway by which N is acquired, accounting for ~66% of the N uptake by plants. Notably, roots associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi - generally considered for their role in phosphorus (P) acquisition - are estimated to be the primary source of global plant N uptake owing to the dominance of AM-associated plants in mid- and low-latitude biomes. Overall, our coupled model improves the representations of NPP downregulation globally and generates spatially explicit patterns of belowground C allocation, soil N uptake, and N retranslocation at the global scale. Such model improvements are critical for predicting how plant responses to altered N availability (owing to N deposition, rising atmospheric CO2 , and warming temperatures) may impact the land C sink. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Assessment of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Using a 3-D Model Constrained by Isotopic Carbon Measurements and Remote Sensing of Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, S. C.

    1998-01-01

    Our original proposal called for improved modeling of the terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle, specifically using biome-specific process models to account for both the energy and water budgets of plant growth, to facilitate investigations into recent changes in global atmospheric CO2 abundance and regional distribution. The carbon fluxes predicted by these models were to be incorporated into a global model of CO2 transport to establish large-scale regional fluxes of CO2 to and from the terrestrial biosphere subject to constraints imposed by direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio. Our work was coordinated with a NASA project (NASA NAGW-3151) at the University of Montana under the direction of Steven Running, and was partially funded by the Electric Power Research Institute. The primary objective of this project was to develop and test the Biome-BGC model, a global biological process model with a daily time step which simulates the water, energy and carbon budgets of plant growth. The primary product, the unique global gridded daily land temperature, and the precipitation data set which was used to drive the process model is described. The Biome-BGC model was tested by comparison with a simpler biological model driven by satellite-derived (NDVI) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and (PAR) Photosynthetically Active Radiation data and by comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations. The simple NDVI model is also described. To facilitate the comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations, a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model was used to produce predictions of atmospheric CO2 variations given CO2 fluxes owing to (NPP) Net Primary Productivity and heterotrophic respiration that were produced by the Biome-BGC model and by the NDVI model. The transport model that we used in this project, and errors associated with transport simulations, were characterized by a comparison of 12 transport models.

  1. Modeling Carbon Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Piers

    2012-01-01

    Model results will be reviewed to assess different methods for bounding the terrestrial role in the global carbon cycle. It is proposed that a series of climate model runs could be scoped that would tighten the limits on the "missing sink" of terrestrial carbon and could also direct future satellite image analyses to search for its geographical location and understand its seasonal dynamics.

  2. The value of soil respiration measurements for interpreting and modeling terrestrial carbon cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Claire L.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Desai, Ankur R.; Lavoie, Martin; Risk, Dave; Tang, Jianwu; Todd-Brown, Katherine; Vargas, Rodrigo

    2016-11-16

    A recent acceleration of model-data synthesis activities has leveraged many terrestrial carbon (C) datasets, but utilization of soil respiration (RS) data has not kept pace with other types such as eddy covariance (EC) fluxes and soil C stocks. Here we argue that RS data, including non-continuous measurements from survey sampling campaigns, have unrealized value and should be utilized more extensively and creatively in data synthesis and modeling activities. We identify three major challenges in interpreting RS data, and discuss opportunities to address them. The first challenge is that when RS is compared to ecosystem respiration (RECO) measured from EC towers, it is not uncommon to find substantial mismatch, indicating one or both flux methodologies are unreliable. We argue the most likely cause of mismatch is unreliable EC data, and there is an unrecognized opportunity to utilize RS for EC quality control. The second challenge is that RS integrates belowground heterotrophic (RH) and autotrophic (RA) activity, whereas modelers generally prefer partitioned fluxes, and few models include an explicit RS output. Opportunities exist to use the total RS flux for data assimilation and model benchmarking methods rather than less-certain partitioned fluxes. Pushing for more experiments that not only partition RS but also monitor the age of RA and RH, as well as for the development of belowground RA components in models, would allow for more direct comparison between measured and modeled values. The third challenge is that soil respiration is generally measured at a very different resolution than that needed for comparison to EC or ecosystem- to global-scale models. Measuring soil fluxes with finer spatial resolution and more extensive coverage, and downscaling EC fluxes to match the scale of RS, will improve chamber and tower comparisons. Opportunities also exist to estimate RH at regional scales by implementing decomposition functional types, akin to plant functional

  3. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, David; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min

    2013-01-01

    Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

  4. Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Raddatz, Thomas; Timmreck, Claudia; Reick, Christian H.; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina (Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology Hamburg (Germany))

    2010-11-15

    The sensitivity of the climate-biogeochemistry system to volcanic eruptions is investigated using the comprehensive Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model includes an interactive carbon cycle with modules for terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The volcanic forcing is based on a recent reconstruction for the last 1200 yr. An ensemble of five simulations is performed and the averaged response of the system is analysed in particular for the largest eruption of the last millennium in the year 1258. After this eruption, the global annual mean temperature drops by 1 K and recovers slowly during 10 yr. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration declines during 4 yr after the eruption by ca. 2 ppmv to its minimum value and then starts to increase towards the pre-eruption level. This CO{sub 2} decrease is explained mainly by reduced heterotrophic respiration on land in response to the surface cooling, which leads to increased carbon storage in soils, mostly in tropical and subtropical regions. The ocean acts as a weak carbon sink, which is primarily due to temperature-induced solubility. This sink saturates 2 yr after the eruption, earlier than the land uptake.

  5. Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Raddatz, Thomas; Timmreck, Claudia; Reick, Christian H.; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina

    2010-01-01

    The sensitivity of the climate-biogeochemistry system to volcanic eruptions is investigated using the comprehensive Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model includes an interactive carbon cycle with modules for terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The volcanic forcing is based on a recent reconstruction for the last 1200 yr. An ensemble of five simulations is performed and the averaged response of the system is analysed in particular for the largest eruption of the last millennium in the year 1258. After this eruption, the global annual mean temperature drops by 1 K and recovers slowly during 10 yr. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration declines during 4 yr after the eruption by ca. 2 ppmv to its minimum value and then starts to increase towards the pre-eruption level. This CO 2 decrease is explained mainly by reduced heterotrophic respiration on land in response to the surface cooling, which leads to increased carbon storage in soils, mostly in tropical and subtropical regions. The ocean acts as a weak carbon sink, which is primarily due to temperature-induced solubility. This sink saturates 2 yr after the eruption, earlier than the land uptake.

  6. Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yan; Peng, Shushi; Goll, Daniel S.; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Hinsinger, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Violette, Aurélie; Yang, Xiaojuan; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui

    2017-07-01

    Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between -31 and 193 Tg P and between -89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648-1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924-2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

  7. Africa and the global carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denning A Scott

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO2. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.

  8. Soil erosion, sedimentation and the carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammeraat, L. H.; Kirkels, F.; Kuhn, N. J.

    2012-04-01

    Historically soil erosion focused on the effects of on-site soil quality loss and consequently reduced crop yields, and off-site effects related to deposition of material and water quality issues such as increased sediment loads of rivers. In agricultural landscapes geomorphological processes reallocate considerable amounts of soil and soil organic carbon (SOC). The destiny of SOC is of importance because it constitutes the largest C pool of the fast carbon cycle, and which cannot only be understood by looking at the vertical transfer of C from soil to atmosphere. Therefore studies have been carried out to quantify this possible influence of soil erosion and soil deposition and which was summarized by Quinton et al. (2010) by "We need to consider soils as mobile systems to make accurate predictions about the consequences of global change for terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks". Currently a debate exists on the actual fate of SOC in relation to the global carbon cycle, represented in a controversy between researchers claiming that erosion is a sink, and those who claim the opposite. This controversy is still continuing as it is not easy to quantify and model the dominating sink and source processes at the landscape scale. Getting insight into the balance of the carbon budget requires a comprehensive research of all relevant processes at broad spatio-temporal scales, from catchment to regional scales and covering the present to the late Holocene. Emphasising the economic and societal benefits, the merits for scientific knowledge of the carbon cycle and the potential to sequester carbon and consequently offset increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, make the fate of SOC in agricultural landscapes a high-priority research area. Quinton, J.N., Govers, G., Van Oost, K., Bardgett, R.D., 2010. The impact of agricultural soil erosion on biogeochemical cycling. Nature Geosci, 3, 311-314.

  9. Carbon cycling and POC turnover in the mesopelagic zone of the ocean: Insights from a simple model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R.; Tang, Kam W.

    2010-08-01

    Carbon budgets of the mesopelagic zone are poorly constrained, highlighting our lack of understanding of the biota that inhabit this environment and their role in the cycling and sequestering of carbon in the deep ocean. A simple food web model of the mesopelagic zone is presented that traces the turnover of particulate organic carbon (POC), supplied as sinking detritus, through to its respiration by the biota via three pathways: colonization and solubilization of detritus by attached bacteria, production of free-living bacteria following losses of solubilization products during particle degradation, and consumption by detritivorous zooplankton. The relative consumption of detritus by attached bacteria was initially specified as 76%, with the remaining 24% by detritivores. Highlighting an asymmetry between consumption and respiration, the resulting predicted share of total respiration due to bacteria was 84.7%, with detritivores accounting for just 6.6% (with 6.5% and 2.2% by bacterivores and higher zooplankton, respectively). Bacteria thus dominated respiration and thereby acted as the principal sink for POC supplied to the mesopelagic zone, whereas zooplankton mainly recycled carbon back to the base of the food web as detritus or dissolved organic carbon rather than respiring it to CO 2. Estimates of respiration are therefore not necessarily a reliable indicator of the relative roles of bacteria and zooplankton in consuming and processing POC in the mesopelagic zone of the ocean. The work highlighted a number of major unknowns, including how little we know in general about the dynamics and metabolic budgets of bacteria and zooplankton that inhabit the mesopelagic zone and, specifically, the degree to which the solubilized products of enzymatic hydrolysis of POC by attached bacteria are lost to the surrounding water, the magnitude and factors responsible for bacterial growth efficiency, the role of microbes in the nutrition of detritivores, and the recycling

  10. The ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model and global cycle of carbon dioxide in system of atmosphere-ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Loboda, Nataliya; Khokhlov, Valery; Serbov, Nikoly; Svinarenko, Andrey

    The purpose of this paper is carrying out the detailed model of the CO2 global turnover in system of "atmosphere-ocean" with using the ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model. Practically all carried out models are functioning in the average annual regime and accounting for the carbon distribution in bio-sphere in most general form (Glushkov et al, 2003). We construct a modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows to reproduce a season dynamics of carbon turnover in ocean with account of zone ocean structure (up quasi-homogeneous layer, thermocline and deepest layer). It is taken into account dependence of the CO2 transfer through the bounder between atmosphere and ocean upon temperature of water and air, wind velocity, buffer mechanism of the CO2 dissolution. The same program is realized for atmosphere part of whole system. It is obtained a tempo-ral and space distribution for concentration of non-organic carbon in ocean, partial press of dissolute CO2 and value of exchange on the border between atmosphere and ocean. It is estimated a role of the wind intermixing of the up ocean layer. The increasing of this effect leads to increasing the plankton mass and further particles, which are transferred by wind, contribute to more quick immersion of microscopic shells and organic material. It is fulfilled investigation of sen-sibility of the master differential equations system solutions from the model parameters. The master differential equa-tions system, describing a dynamics of the CO2 cycle, is numerically integrated by the four order Runge-Cutt method under given initial values of valuables till output of solution on periodic regime. At first it is indicated on possible real-zation of the chaos scenario in system. On our data, the difference of the average annual values for the non-organic car-bon concentration in the up quasi-homogeneous layer between equator and extreme southern zone is 0.15 mol/m3, be-tween the equator and extreme northern zone is 0

  11. Climate and the Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, Jim

    2017-04-01

    Climate and the Carbon Cycle EOS3a Science in tomorrow's classroom Students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. A study conducted by Michigan State University and published in 2011 by Science Daily titled 'What carbon cycle? College students lack scientific literacy, study finds'. This study relates how 'most college students in the United States do not grasp the scientific basis of the carbon cycle - an essential skill in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change.' The study authors call for a new approach to teaching about climate. What if teachers better understood vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? As a Middle School science teacher, I have been given the opportunity to use a new curriculum within TERC's EarthLabs collection, Climate and the Carbon Cycle, to awaken those brains and assist my students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics I joined others to begin training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Through my poster, I will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to a new module in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how

  12. Incorporating Ecosystem Experiments and Observations into Process Models of Forest Carbon and Water Cycles: Challenges and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; Domec, J. C.; Noormets, A.; King, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Numerous studies, both experimental and observational, have been conducted over the past two decades in an attempt to understand how water and carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems may respond to changes in climatic conditions. These studies have produced a wealth of detailed data on key processes driving these cycles. In parallel, sophisticated models of these processes have been formulated to answer a variety of questions relevant to natural resource management. Recent advances in data assimilation techniques offer exciting new possibilities to combine this wealth of ecosystem data with process models of ecosystem function to improve prediction and quantify associated uncertainty. Using forests of the southeastern United States as our focus, we will specify how fine-scale physiological (e.g. half-hourly sap flux) can be scaled up with quantified error for use in models of stand growth and hydrology. This approach represents an opportunity to leverage current and past research from experiments including throughfall displacement × fertilization (PINEMAP), irrigation × fertilization (SETRES), elevated CO­2­ (Duke and ORNL FACE) and a variety of observational studies in both conifer and hardwood forests throughout the region, using a common platform for data assimilation and prediction. As part of this discussion, we will address variation in dominant species, stand structure, site age, management practices, soils and climate that represent both challenges to the development of a common analytical approach and opportunities to address questions of interest to policy makers and natural resource managers.

  13. Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

    2014-12-01

    GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

  14. Bioenergy, the Carbon Cycle, and Carbon Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammen, D. M.

    2003-12-01

    The evolving energy and land-use policies across North America and Africa provide critical case studies in the relationship between regional development, the management of natural resources, and the carbon cycle. Over 50 EJ of the roughly 430 EJ total global anthropogenic energy budget is currently utilized in the form of direct biomass combustion. In North America 3 - 4 percent of total energy is derived from biomass, largely in combined heat and power (CHP) combustion applications. By contrast Africa, which is a major consumer of 'traditional' forms of biomass, uses far more total bioenergy products, but largely in smaller batches, with quantities of 0.5 - 2 tons/capita at the household level. Several African nations rely on biomass for well over 90 percent of household energy, and in some nations major portions of the industrial energy supply is also derived from biomass. In much of sub-Saharan Africa the direct combustion of biomass in rural areas is exceeded by the conversion of wood to charcoal for transport to the cities for household use there. There are major health, and environmental repercussions of these energy flows. The African, as well as Latin American and Asian charcoal trade has a noticeable signature on the global greenhouse gas cycles. In North America, and notably Scandinavia and India as well, biomass energy and emerging conversion technologies are being actively researched, and provide tremendous opportunities for the evolution of a sustainable, locally based, energy economy for many nations. This talk will examine aspects of these current energy and carbon flows, and the potential that gassification and new silvicultural practices hold for clean energy systems in the 21st century. North America and Africa will be examined in particular as both sources of innovation in this field, and areas with specific promise for application of these energy technologies and biomass/land use practices to further energy and global climate management.

  15. Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian Jannik; Canfield, Donald Eugene

    2011-01-01

    The cycles of carbon and oxygen at the Earth surface are intimately linked, where the burial of organic carbon into sediments represents a source of oxygen to the surface environment. This coupling is typically quantified through the isotope records of organic and inorganic carbon. Yet, the late...... Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features...... of the carbonate and organic carbon isotope record can be explained by the release of methane hydrates from an anoxic dissolved organic carbon-rich ocean into an atmosphere containing oxygen levels considerably less than today....

  16. CO/sub 2/ carbon cycle and climate interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Maier-Reimer, E; Degens, E T; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1984-03-01

    Past and expected emissions of anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ stimulate carbon cycle and climate research. Prognoses of future CO/sub 2/ levels depend on energy scenarios and on the reaction of the biosphere and hydrosphere to elevated atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations. The reaction of the reservoirs vegetation, freshwater and oceans to disturbances of the carbon cycle is reviewed. For the oceans first results of a simple carbon cycle model implanted in a three-dimensional general circulation model are presented. This model allows experiments not possible with previous box models.

  17. The changing global carbon cycle: Linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, F. S.; McFarland, J.; McGuire, David A.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Ruess, Roger W.; Kielland, K.

    2009-01-01

    Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell & Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR, i.e. primarily decomposition).

  18. Aspects of studies on carbon cycle at ground surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazawa, Hiromi; Kawai, Shintaro; Moriizumi, Jun; Iida, Takao

    2008-01-01

    Radiocarbon released from nuclear facilities into the atmosphere is readily involved in a ground surface carbon cycle, which has very large spatial and temporal variability. Most of the recent studies on the carbon cycle at the ground surface are concerned with global warming, to which the ground surface plays a crucial role as a sink and/or source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In these studies, carbon isotopes are used as tracers to quantitatively evaluate behavior of carbon. From a view point of environmental safety of nuclear facilities, radiocarbon released from a facility should be traced in a specific spatial and temporal situation because carbon cycle is driven by biological activities which are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. With this background, this paper discusses aspects of carbon cycle studies by exemplifying an experimental study on carbon cycle in a forest and a numerical study on soil organic carbon formation. The first example is a typical global warming-related observational study in which radiocarbon is used as a tracer to illustrate how carbon behaves in diurnal to seasonal time scales. The second example is on behavior of bomb carbon incorporated in soil organic matter in a long-term period of decades. The discussion will cover conceptual modelling of carbon cycle from different aspects and importance of specifying time scales of interest. (author)

  19. Nonautonomous linear system of the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Carbon cycle has been studied by uses of observation through various networks, field and laboratory experiments, and simulation models. Much less has been done on theoretical thinking and analysis to understand fundament properties of carbon cycle and then guide observatory, experimental, and modeling research. This presentation is to explore what would be the theoretical properties of terrestrial carbon cycle and how those properties can be used to make observatory, experimental, and modeling research more effective. Thousands of published data sets from litter decomposition and soil incubation studies almost all indicate that decay processes of litter and soil organic carbon can be well described by first order differential equations with one or more pools. Carbon pool dynamics in plants and soil after disturbances (e.g., wildfire, clear-cut of forests, and plows of soil for cropping) and during natural recovery or ecosystem restoration also exhibit characteristics of first-order linear systems. Thus, numerous lines of empirical evidence indicate that the terrestrial carbon cycle can be adequately described as a nonautonomous linear system. The linearity reflects the nature of the carbon cycle that carbon, once fixed by photosynthesis, is linearly transferred among pools within an ecosystem. The linear carbon transfer, however, is modified by nonlinear functions of external forcing variables. In addition, photosynthetic carbon influx is also nonlinearly influenced by external variables. This nonautonomous linear system can be mathematically expressed by a first-order linear ordinary matrix equation. We have recently used this theoretical property of terrestrial carbon cycle to develop a semi-analytic solution of spinup. The new methods have been applied to five global land models, including NCAR's CLM and CABLE models and can computationally accelerate spinup by two orders of magnitude. We also use this theoretical property to develop an analytic framework to

  20. Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueyama, M.; Ichii, K.; Hirata, R.; Takagi, K.; Asanuma, J.; Machimura, T.; Nakai, Y.; Ohta, T.; Saigusa, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Hirano, T.

    2010-03-01

    Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales. The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, substantially improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values. The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites were positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget was partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicated that spring warming enhanced the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreased it across the larch forests. The summer radiation was the most important factor that controlled the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions were the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between belowground and aboveground, was site-specific, and it was negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study substantially

  1. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  2. Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

    2018-05-01

    As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

  3. Modeling forest carbon cycle using long-term carbon stock field measurement in the Delaware River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing Xu; Yude Pan; Alain F. Plante; Kevin McCullough; Richard Birdsey

    2017-01-01

    Process-based models are a powerful approach to test our understanding of biogeochemical processes, to extrapolate ground survey data from limited plots to the landscape scale, and to simulate the effects of climate change, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric CO2, increasing natural disturbances, and land-use change on ecological processes...

  4. Carbon footprint estimation of municipal water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhshi, Ali A.

    2009-11-01

    This research investigates the embodied energy associated with water use. A geographic information system (GIS) was tested using data from Loudoun County, Virginia. The objective of this study is to estimate the embodied energy and carbon emission levels associated with water service at a geographical location and to improve for sustainability planning. Factors that affect the carbon footprint were investigated and the use of a GIS based model as a sustainability planning framework was evaluated. The carbon footprint metric is a useful tool for prediction and measurement of a system's sustainable performance over its expected life cycle. Two metrics were calculated: tons of carbon dioxide per year to represent the contribution to global warming and watt-hrs per gallon to show the embodied energy associated with water consumption. The water delivery to the building, removal of wastewater from the building and associated treatment of water and wastewater create a sizable carbon footprint; often the energy attributed to this water service is the greatest end use of electrical energy. The embodied energy in water depends on topographical characteristics of the area's local water supply, the efficiency of the treatment systems, and the efficiency of the pumping stations. The questions answered by this research are: What is the impact of demand side sustainable water practices on the embodied energy as represented by a comprehensive carbon footprint? What are the major energy consuming elements attributed to the system? What is a viable and visually identifiable tool to estimate the carbon footprint attributed to those Greenhouse Gas (GHG) producing elements? What is the embodied energy and emission associated with water use delivered to a building? Benefits to be derived from a standardized GIS applied carbon footprint estimation approach include: (1) Improved environmental and economic information for the developers, water and wastewater processing and municipal

  5. Orogen and long-term carbon cycle, what numerical modelling can tell us about their interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maffre, P.; Godderis, Y.; Carretier, S.; Ladant, J. B.; Moquet, J. S.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    If the uplift of current mountain ranges is often cited as a possible cause for Cenozoic cooling and the onset of the quaternary glaciation, this hypothesis is highly discussed. The main reason is that mountain uplift has a wide range of consequences, turning on or of sources or sinks of CO2. Most of these CO2 fluxes are still poorly constrained. Indeed, high erosion rates of mountain ranges increase silicate weathering by increasing fresh material supply (Goddéris et al. 2017) and enhance organic matter burial throughout intense sediment discharge by rivers (Galy et al. 2007). Yet, the effect of fresh matter supply by erosion is different if it happens on a weathering-limited or a supply-limited place (West 2012), and as eroded clasts are often weathered in pediments or floodplains (Moquet et al 2011, Lupker et al. 2012), it makes the issue more complex. Moreover, mountain ranges dramatically alter local and global climatic pattern by affecting atmospheric and oceanic circulation (Maffre et al. 2017), which must have consequences on weathering efficiency. Finally, it has been shown that the CO2 source due to sulphur oxidation can locally exceed the CO2 sink associated to silicate weathering (Torres et al. 2016) and may be relevant at geological timescale (Torres et al. 2014). Our aim here is to investigate theses processes in a global model in order to quantify their relative importance. We used the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to test the effect of orography on CO2 fluxes with present-day continent configuration. We designed for that purpose two experiments, with and without orography, everything else kept as present-day state. Preliminary results show antagonist effects of mountain ranges. While erosion acts to enhance weathering efficiency when mountains are built, dryer and cooler conditions triggered by reorganization of ocean-atmosphere circulation act to reduce it. A first quantification using weathering data to

  6. Hydrothermal Fe cycling and deep ocean organic carbon scavenging: Model-based evidence for significant POC supply to seafloor sediments

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    German, C.R.; Legendre, L.L.; Sander, S.G.;; Niquil, N.; Luther-III, G.W.; LokaBharathi, P.A.; Han, X.; LeBris, N.

    by more than ~10% over background values, what the model does indicate is that scavenging of carbon in association with Fe-rich hydrothermal plume particles should play a significant role in the delivery of particulate organic carbon to deep ocean...

  7. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

    2014-01-01

    Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  8. Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

    2014-12-01

    Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently

  9. The Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model. Version 1. Version 'HAMOCC2s' for long time integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinze, C.; Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-11-01

    The Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Circulation Model (HAMOCC, configuration HAMOCC2s) predicts the atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure (as induced by oceanic processes), production rates of biogenic particulate matter, and geochemical tracer distributions in the water column as well as the bioturbated sediment. Besides the carbon cycle this model version includes also the marine silicon cycle (silicic acid in the water column and the sediment pore waters, biological opal production, opal flux through the water column and opal sediment pore water interaction). The model is based on the grid and geometry of the LSG ocean general circulation model (see the corresponding manual, LSG=Large Scale Geostrophic) and uses a velocity field provided by the LSG-model in 'frozen' state. In contrast to the earlier version of the model (see Report No. 5), the present version includes a multi-layer sediment model of the bioturbated sediment zone, allowing for variable tracer inventories within the complete model system. (orig.)

  10. A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxia Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO2, and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone.

  11. A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Lihu; Zhu, Wenjia

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO2, and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone. PMID:28286690

  12. Comparison of a Mass Balance and an Ecosystem Model Approach when Evaluating the Carbon Cycling in a Lake Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Eva; Sobek, Sebastian

    2006-01-01

    Carbon budgets are frequently used in order to understand the pathways of organic matter in ecosystems, and they also have an important function in the risk assessment of harmful substances. We compared two approaches, mass balance calculations and an ecosystem budget, to describe carbon processing in a shallow, oligotrophic hardwater lake. Both approaches come to the same main conclusion, namely that the lake is a net auto trophic ecosystem, in spite of its high dissolved organic carbon and low total phosphorus concentrations. However, there were several differences between the carbon budgets, e.g. in the rate of sedimentation and the air-water flux of CO 2 . The largest uncertainty in the mass balance is the contribution of emergent macrophytes to the carbon cycling of the lake, while the ecosystem budget is very sensitive towards the choice of conversion factors and literature values. While the mass balance calculations produced more robust results, the ecosystem budget gave valuable insights into the pathways of organic matter transfer in the ecosystem. We recommend that when using an ecosystem budget for the risk assessment of harmful substances, mass balance calculations should be performed in parallel in order to increase the robustness of the conclusions

  13. Global Carbon Cycle of the Precambrian Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiewióra, Justyna

    The carbon isotopic composition of distinct Archaean geological records provides information about the global carbon cycle and emergence of life on early Earth. We utilized carbon isotopic records of Greenlandic carbonatites, diamonds, graphites, marbles, metacarbonates and ultramafic rocks...... in the surface environment and recycled back into the mantle In the third manuscript we investigate the carbon cycle components, which have maintained the carbon isotope composition of the mantle constant through time. Assuming constant organic ratio of the total carbon burial (f), we show that increased.......1‰) and metacarbonate ( -6.1 ± 0.1‰ to +1.5 ± 0.0‰) rocks from the ~3.8 Ga Isua Supracrustal Belt as resulting from the Rayleigh distillation process, which affected the ultramafic reservoir with initial δ13C between -2‰ and 0‰. Due to its high primary δ13C signature, carbon in the Isuan magnesite was most likely...

  14. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  15. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A O; Nazarov, I M; Lelakin, A L [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  16. Africa and the global carbon cycle

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Williams, CA

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one...

  17. Diffusion-type model of the global carbon cycle for the estimation of dose to the world population from releases of carbon-14 to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.

    1977-05-01

    A nonlinear dynamic model of the exchange of carbon among the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, and ocean is described and applied to estimating the radiation dose to the world's population from the release of 14 C to the atmosphere from the nuclear power industry. A computer implementation of the model, written in the IBM Continuous System Modeling Program III (CSMP III) simulation language, is presented. The model treats the ocean as a diffusive medium with respect to vertical transport of carbon, and the nonlinear variation of CO 2 partial pressure with the total inorganic carbon concentration in surface waters is taken into account in calculating the transfer rate from ocean to atmosphere. Transfers between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere are represented by nonlinear equations which consider CO 2 fertilization and impose a constraint on the ultimate total carbon mass in the biosphere

  18. Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, John; Kang, Sinkyu

    2003-01-01

    The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

  19. Recuperative supercritical carbon dioxide cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonwane, Chandrashekhar; Sprouse, Kenneth M; Subbaraman, Ganesan; O'Connor, George M; Johnson, Gregory A

    2014-11-18

    A power plant includes a closed loop, supercritical carbon dioxide system (CLS-CO.sub.2 system). The CLS-CO.sub.2 system includes a turbine-generator and a high temperature recuperator (HTR) that is arranged to receive expanded carbon dioxide from the turbine-generator. The HTR includes a plurality of heat exchangers that define respective heat exchange areas. At least two of the heat exchangers have different heat exchange areas.

  20. Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ueyama

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales.

    The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE, gross primary productivity (GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE, and evapotranspiration (ET. Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, substantially improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values.

    The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites were positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget was partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicated that spring warming enhanced the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreased it across the larch forests. The summer radiation was the most important factor that controlled the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions were the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between belowground and aboveground, was site-specific, and it was negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation

  1. NASA's Carbon Cycle OSSE Initiative - Informing future space-based observing strategies through advanced modeling and data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Sellers, P. J.; Schimel, D.; Moore, B., III; O'Dell, C.; Crowell, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Pawson, S.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Schuh, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are critically needed to improve understanding of the contemporary carbon budget and carbon-climate feedbacks. Though current carbon observing satellites have provided valuable data in regions not covered by surface in situ measurements, limited sampling of key regions and small but spatially coherent biases have limited the ability to estimate fluxes at the time and space scales needed for improved process-level understanding and informed decision-making. Next generation satellites will improve coverage in data sparse regions, either through use of active remote sensing, a geostationary vantage point, or increased swath width, but all techniques have limitations. The relative strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and their synergism have not previously been examined. To address these needs, a significant subset of the US carbon modeling community has come together with support from NASA to conduct a series of coordinated observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs), with close collaboration in framing the experiments and in analyzing the results. Here, we report on the initial phase of this initiative, which focused on creating realistic, physically consistent synthetic CO2 and CH4 observational datasets for use in inversion and signal detection experiments. These datasets have been created using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) to represent the current state of atmospheric carbon as well as best available estimates of expected flux changes. Scenarios represented include changes in urban emissions, release of permafrost soil carbon, changes in carbon uptake in tropical and mid-latitude forests, changes in the Southern Ocean sink, and changes in both anthropogenic and natural methane emissions. This GEOS carbon `nature run' was sampled by instrument simulators representing the most prominent observing strategies with a focus on consistently representing the impacts of

  2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trabalka, J R [ed.

    1985-12-01

    This state-of-the-art volume presents discussions on the global cycle of carbon, the dynamic balance among global atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the individual papers. (ACR)

  3. Chemical Oceanography and the Marine Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emerson, Steven; Hedges, John

    The principles of chemical oceanography provide insight into the processes regulating the marine carbon cycle. The text offers a background in chemical oceanography and a description of how chemical elements in seawater and ocean sediments are used as tracers of physical, biological, chemical and geological processes in the ocean. The first seven chapters present basic topics of thermodynamics, isotope systematics and carbonate chemistry, and explain the influence of life on ocean chemistry and how it has evolved in the recent (glacial-interglacial) past. This is followed by topics essential to understanding the carbon cycle, including organic geochemistry, air-sea gas exchange, diffusion and reaction kinetics, the marine and atmosphere carbon cycle and diagenesis in marine sediments. Figures are available to download from www.cambridge.org/9780521833134. Ideal as a textbook for upper-level undergraduates and graduates in oceanography, environmental chemistry, geochemistry and earth science and a valuable reference for researchers in oceanography.

  4. MEDUSA-2.0: an intermediate complexity biogeochemical model of the marine carbon cycle for climate change and ocean acidification studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yool

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available MEDUSA-1.0 (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification was developed as an "intermediate complexity" plankton ecosystem model to study the biogeochemical response, and especially that of the so-called "biological pump", to anthropogenically driven change in the World Ocean (Yool et al., 2011. The base currency in this model was nitrogen from which fluxes of organic carbon, including export to the deep ocean, were calculated by invoking fixed C:N ratios in phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. However, due to anthropogenic activity, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2 has significantly increased above its natural, inter-glacial background. As such, simulating and predicting the carbon cycle in the ocean in its entirety, including ventilation of CO2 with the atmosphere and the resulting impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, requires that both organic and inorganic carbon be afforded a more complete representation in the model specification. Here, we introduce MEDUSA-2.0, an expanded successor model which includes additional state variables for dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen and detritus carbon (permitting variable C:N in exported organic matter, as well as a simple benthic formulation and extended parameterizations of phytoplankton growth, calcification and detritus remineralisation. A full description of MEDUSA-2.0, including its additional functionality, is provided and a multi-decadal spin-up simulation (1860–2005 is performed. The biogeochemical performance of the model is evaluated using a diverse range of observational data, and MEDUSA-2.0 is assessed relative to comparable models using output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5.

  5. The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) v1.0: an extensible and fully documented open-source re-implementation of the Bern reduced-form model for global carbon cycle-climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassmann, Kuno M.; Joos, Fortunat

    2018-05-01

    The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model which has been used widely in previous scientific work and IPCC assessments. BernSCM represents the carbon cycle and climate system with a small set of equations for the heat and carbon budget, the parametrization of major nonlinearities, and the substitution of complex component systems with impulse response functions (IRFs). The IRF approach allows cost-efficient yet accurate substitution of detailed parent models of climate system components with near-linear behavior. Illustrative simulations of scenarios from previous multimodel studies show that BernSCM is broadly representative of the range of the climate-carbon cycle response simulated by more complex and detailed models. Model code (in Fortran) was written from scratch with transparency and extensibility in mind, and is provided open source. BernSCM makes scientifically sound carbon cycle-climate modeling available for many applications. Supporting up to decadal time steps with high accuracy, it is suitable for studies with high computational load and for coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs), for example. Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of CO2 and climate benefits of emission mitigation options.

  6. Reservoirs as hotspots of fluvial carbon cycling in peatland catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stimson, A G; Allott, T E H; Boult, S; Evans, M G

    2017-02-15

    Inland water bodies are recognised as dynamic sites of carbon processing, and lakes and reservoirs draining peatland soils are particularly important, due to the potential for high carbon inputs combined with long water residence times. A carbon budget is presented here for a water supply reservoir (catchment area~9km 2 ) draining an area of heavily eroded upland peat in the South Pennines, UK. It encompasses a two year dataset and quantifies reservoir dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) and aqueous carbon dioxide (CO 2 (aq)) inputs and outputs. The budget shows the reservoir to be a hotspot of fluvial carbon cycling, as with high levels of POC influx it acts as a net sink of fluvial carbon and has the potential for significant gaseous carbon export. The reservoir alternates between acting as a producer and consumer of DOC (a pattern linked to rainfall and temperature) which provides evidence for transformations between different carbon species. In particular, the budget data accompanied by 14 C (radiocarbon) analyses provide evidence that POC-DOC transformations are a key process, occurring at rates which could represent at least ~10% of the fluvial carbon sink. To enable informed catchment management further research is needed to produce carbon cycle models more applicable to these environments, and on the implications of high POC levels for DOC composition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Quantitative geochemical modeling along a transect off Peru: Carbon cycling in time and space, and the triggering factors for carbon loss and storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arning, Esther T.; van Berk, Wolfgang; Schulz, Hans-Martin

    2012-12-01

    Early diagenetic processes in Peruvian shelf and slope sediments are numerically reproduced by applying chemical thermodynamics in a complex, universal approach using the PHREEQC (version 2) computer code. The reaction kinetics of organic carbon remineralization are integrated into a set of equilibrium reactions by defining the type and the amount of converted organic matter in a certain time step. We calculate the most intense remineralization of organic carbon for present-day shelf sites, and the final carbon pool is dominated by secondary carbonates. This serves to highlight the influence of organic matter degradation and anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) on diagenetic mineral formation. The enrichment of aqueous methane and the formation of methane hydrate only takes place in slope sediments with high sedimentation rates that prevent diffusive loss of methane (e.g., Sites 682 and 688). Moreover, AOM prevents the diffusion of dissolved methane into overlying seawater. Throughout the Miocene period, these sites were located on a former shelf and the total carbon loss from the sediments was significantly higher in comparison with the present-day. Compared with the present-day shelf site, organic matter remineralization is high, and methane is produced but not stored within the sediments. Our model calculations rule out the possibility of present-day and former shelf site sediments off the coast of Peru as methane reservoirs. Remineralized TOC has to be considered, particularly in older sediments, when interpreting TOC profiles and calculating mass accumulation rates of total organic carbon (MARTOC). The more organic matter has been remineralized during the depositional history, the larger the difference between MARTOC calculated from measured TOC data, and from the sum of modeled and measured TOC data. Consequently, most reliable primary productivity calculations are based on the sum of measured relict TOC and the amount of remineralized organic carbon

  8. The nuclear fuel cycle versus the carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    2005-01-01

    Nuclear power provides approximately 17% of the world's electricity, which is equivalent to a reduction in carbon emissions of ∼0.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of C/yr. This is a modest reduction as compared with global emissions of carbon, ∼7 Gt C/yr. Most analyses suggest that in order to have a significant and timely impact on carbon emissions, carbon-free sources, such as nuclear power, would have to expand total production of energy by factors of three to ten by 2050. A three-fold increase in nuclear power capacity would result in a projected reduction in carbon emissions of 1 to 2 Gt C/yr, depending on the type of carbon-based energy source that is displaced. This three-fold increase utilizing present nuclear technologies would result in 25,000 metric tonnes (t) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) per year, containing over 200 t of plutonium. This is compared to a present global inventory of approximately 280,000 t of SNF and >1,700 t of Pu. A nuclear weapon can be fashioned from as little as 5 kg of 239 Pu. However, there is considerable technological flexibility in the nuclear fuel cycle. There are three types of nuclear fuel cycles that might be utilized for the increased production of energy: open, closed, or a symbiotic combination of different types of reactor (such as, thermal and fast neutron reactors). The neutron energy spectrum has a significant effect on the fission product yield, and the consumption of long-lived actinides, by fission, is best achieved by fast neutrons. Within each cycle, the volume and composition of the high-level nuclear waste and fissile material depend on the type of nuclear fuel, the amount of burn-up, the extent of radionuclide separation during reprocessing, and the types of materials used to immobilize different radionuclides. As an example, a 232 Th-based fuel cycle can be used to breed fissile 233 U with minimum production of Pu. In this paper, I will contrast the production of excess carbon in the form of CO 2 from fossil fuels with

  9. Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

    2017-12-01

    Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

  10. Unifying Dynamic Prognostic Phenology, Heterogeneous Soil and Vegetation Fluxes, and Ecosystem Biomass and Carbon Stocks To Predict the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle and Land-Atmosphere Exchanges in the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, K. D.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, S.

    2016-12-01

    Future climate projections require process-based models that incorporate the mechanisms and feedbacks controlling the carbon cycle. Over the past three decades, land surface models have been key contributors to Earth system models, evolving from predicting latent (LE) and sensible (SH) heat fluxes to energy and water budgets, momentum transfer, and terrestrial carbon exchange and storage. This study presents the latest version of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4), which builds on a compilation of previous versions and adds a new mechanistic-based scheme that fully predicts the terrestrial carbon cycle. The main SiB4 updates can be summarized as follows: (i) Incorporation of carbon pools that use new respiration and transfer methods, (ii) Creation of a new dynamic phenology scheme that uses mechanistic-based seasonal stages, and (iii) Unification of carbon pools, phenology and disturbance to close the carbon cycle. SiB4 removes the dependence on satellite-based vegetation indices, and instead uses a single mathematical framework to prognose self-consistent land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, energy, radiation, and momentum, as well as carbon storage. Since grasslands cover 30% of land and are highly seasonal, we investigated forty grass sites. Diurnal cycles of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), LE and SH have third-quartile root mean squared (RMS) errors less than 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 1.9 µmol m-2 s-1, 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 42 W m-2, and 78 W m-2, respectively. On the synoptic timeframe, all sites have significant LE correlation coefficients of non-seasonal daily data; and all but one have significant SH correlations. Mean seasonal cycles for leaf area index (LAI), GPP, RE, LE, and SH have third-quartile normalized RMS errors less than 32%, 25%, 28%, 16%, and 48%, respectively. On multi-year timescales, daily correlations of LAI, GPP, RE, and LE are all statistically significant, with third-quartile RMS

  11. Projections of Ocean Acidification Under the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change Using a Reduced-Form Climate Carbon-Cycle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, C.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean chemistry is quickly changing in response to continued anthropogenic emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Mean surface ocean pH has already decreased by 0.1 units relative to the preindustrial era. We use an open-source, simple climate and carbon cycle model ("Hector") to investigate future changes in ocean acidification (pH and calcium carbonate saturations) under the climate agreement from the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of Parties in Paris 2015 (COP 21). Hector is a reduced-form, very fast-executing model that can emulate the global mean climate of the CMIP5 models, as well as the inorganic carbon cycle in the upper ocean, allowing us to investigate future changes in ocean acidification. We ran Hector under three different emissions trajectories, using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify model uncertainty and capture a range of possible ocean acidification changes. The first trajectory is a business-as-usual scenario comparable to a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the second a scenario with the COP 21 commitments enacted, and the third an idealized scenario keeping global temperature change to 2°C, comparable to a RCP 2.6. Preliminary results suggest that under the COP 21 agreements ocean pH at 2100 will decrease by 0.2 units and surface saturations of aragonite (calcite) will decrease by 0.9 (1.4) units relative to 1850. Under the COP 21 agreement the world's oceans will be committed to a degree of ocean acidification, however, these changes may be within the range of natural variability evident in some paleo records.

  12. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  13. Development and validation of models for simulation of supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycles and application to self-propelling heat removal systems in boiling water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venker, Jeanne

    2015-03-31

    The objective of the current work was to develop a model that is able to describe the transient behavior of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO{sub 2}) Brayton cycles, to be applied to self-propelling residual heat removal systems in boiling water reactors. The developed model has been implemented into the thermohydraulic system code ATHLET. By means of this improved ATHLET version, novel residual heat removal systems, which are based on closed sCO{sub 2} Brayton cycles, can be assessed as a retrofit measure for present light water reactors. Transient simulations are hereby of great importance. The heat removal system has to be modeled explicitly to account for the interaction between the system and the behavior of the plant during different accident conditions. As a first step, transport and thermodynamic fluid properties of supercritical carbon dioxide have been implemented in ATHLET to allow for the simulation of the new working fluid. Additionally, a heat transfer correlation has been selected to represent the specific heat transfer of supercritical carbon dioxide. For the calculation of pressure losses due to wall friction, an approach for turbulent single phase flow has been adopted that is already implemented in ATHLET. In a second step, a component model for radial compressors has been implemented in the system code. Furthermore, the available model for axial turbines has been adapted to simulate the transient behavior of radial turbines. All extensions have been validated against experimental data. In order to simulate the interaction between the self-propelling heat removal system and a generic boiling water reactor, the components of the sCO{sub 2} Brayton cycle have been dimensioned with first principles. An available input deck of a generic BWR has then been extended by the residual heat removal system. The modeled application has shown that the extended version of ATHLET is suitable to simulate sCO{sub 2} Brayton cycles and to evaluate the introduced

  14. Development and validation of models for simulation of supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycles and application to self-propelling heat removal systems in boiling water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venker, Jeanne

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the current work was to develop a model that is able to describe the transient behavior of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton cycles, to be applied to self-propelling residual heat removal systems in boiling water reactors. The developed model has been implemented into the thermohydraulic system code ATHLET. By means of this improved ATHLET version, novel residual heat removal systems, which are based on closed sCO 2 Brayton cycles, can be assessed as a retrofit measure for present light water reactors. Transient simulations are hereby of great importance. The heat removal system has to be modeled explicitly to account for the interaction between the system and the behavior of the plant during different accident conditions. As a first step, transport and thermodynamic fluid properties of supercritical carbon dioxide have been implemented in ATHLET to allow for the simulation of the new working fluid. Additionally, a heat transfer correlation has been selected to represent the specific heat transfer of supercritical carbon dioxide. For the calculation of pressure losses due to wall friction, an approach for turbulent single phase flow has been adopted that is already implemented in ATHLET. In a second step, a component model for radial compressors has been implemented in the system code. Furthermore, the available model for axial turbines has been adapted to simulate the transient behavior of radial turbines. All extensions have been validated against experimental data. In order to simulate the interaction between the self-propelling heat removal system and a generic boiling water reactor, the components of the sCO 2 Brayton cycle have been dimensioned with first principles. An available input deck of a generic BWR has then been extended by the residual heat removal system. The modeled application has shown that the extended version of ATHLET is suitable to simulate sCO 2 Brayton cycles and to evaluate the introduced heat removal system

  15. Response of the carbon cycle in an intermediate complexity model to the different climate configurations of the last nine interglacials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bouttes

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 levels during interglacials prior to the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE,  ∼  430 ka BP were around 40 ppm lower than after the MBE. The reasons for this difference remain unclear. A recent hypothesis proposed that changes in oceanic circulation, in response to different external forcings before and after the MBE, might have increased the ocean carbon storage in pre-MBE interglacials, thus lowering atmospheric CO2. Nevertheless, no quantitative estimate of this hypothesis has been produced up to now. Here we use an intermediate complexity model including the carbon cycle to evaluate the response of the carbon reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean and land in response to the changes of orbital forcings, ice sheet configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last nine interglacials. We show that the ocean takes up more carbon during pre-MBE interglacials in agreement with data, but the impact on atmospheric CO2 is limited to a few parts per million. Terrestrial biosphere is simulated to be less developed in pre-MBE interglacials, which reduces the storage of carbon on land and increases atmospheric CO2. Accounting for different simulated ice sheet extents modifies the vegetation cover and temperature, and thus the carbon reservoir distribution. Overall, atmospheric CO2 levels are lower during these pre-MBE simulated interglacials including all these effects, but the magnitude is still far too small. These results suggest a possible misrepresentation of some key processes in the model, such as the magnitude of ocean circulation changes, or the lack of crucial mechanisms or internal feedbacks, such as those related to permafrost, to fully account for the lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations during pre-MBE interglacials.

  16. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification

  17. The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, van der I.R.; Bloom, J.; Exbrayat, J.; Feng, L.; Williams, M.

    2016-01-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle

  18. Seasonal carbon cycling in a Greenlandic fjord

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Heidi L.; Meire, Lorenz; Juul-Pedersen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a pronounced effect on biogeochemical cycling in Arctic fjords, but current insight on the biogeochemical functioning of these systems is limited. Here, we present seasonal data on primary production, export of particulate organic carbon (POC), and the coupling...... carbon amounted to 3.2 and 5.3 mol C m−2 yr−1, respectively. Sulfate reduction was the most prominent mineralization pathway, accounting for 69% of the benthic mineralization, while denitrification accounted for 2%. Overall, the carbon mineralization and burial in Kobbefjord were significantly higher...... in ice coverage in higher Arctic Greenlandic fjords will, as a first approximation, entail proportional increases in productivity, mineralization, and burial of organic carbon in the fjords, which will thus become similar to present-day southerly systems....

  19. Towards a Better Quantification of Cropland Contribution to Carbon and Water Cycling Using the ORCHIDEE-STICS Ecosystem Model Across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; Viovy, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudre, N.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Gervois, S.; Seguin, B.; Bondeau, A.

    2006-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (itself part of the IPSL Earth System Model) was coupled to a generic crop model, STICS, for quantitative studies of the past and future impact of agriculture on biogeochemical cycles as well as biophysical surface properties at regional scale. This modelling effort resulted in improved simulated crop productivity and fluxes seasonality as compared with site-level Eddy- covariance network data and other field measurements. ORCHIDEE-STICS, driven by gridded climate reconstructions, soil and vegetation forcings was run for the northern hemisphere temperate crops over the last 35 years. Seasonal, interannual, and spatial performance of the model is evaluated against satellite observations, national and sub-national statistical yield records and inverse atmospheric estimates across Europe. We analyse the spatial pattern and temporal development of the extreme 1976 and 2003 years anomalies, compare the two European drought events with each other and quantify their differential impact on carbon sequestration, energy partitioning and water availability in different agricultural ecosystems. We discuss the modelled and observed 2003 ecosystem Net Primary Productivity drop and anomalous carbon source. Simulations over the past century in Europe reproduce the tripling of wheat and corn yields and confirm the driving effect of management on agro-ecosystems productivity vs. climate change and atmospheric CO2 alone.

  20. Measurements and modeling of CO2 concentration and isotopes to improve process-level understanding of Arctic and boreal carbon cycling. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keeling, Ralph F. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography

    2017-09-29

    The major goal of this project was to improve understanding of processes that control the exchanges of CO2 between the atmosphere and the land biosphere on decadal and longer time scales. The approach involves measuring the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the isotopes of CO2 (13C/12C and 18O/16O) at background stations and uses these and other datasets to challenge and improve numerical models of the earth system. The project particularly emphasized the use of these data to improve understanding of changes occurring in boreal and arctic ecosystems over the past 50 years and to seek from these data improved understanding of large-scale processes impacting carbon cycling, such as the responses to warming, CO2 fertilization, and disturbance. The project also led to advances in the understanding of changes in water-use efficiency of land ecosystems globally based on trends in 13C/12C. The core element of this project was providing partial support for continuing measurements of CO2 concentrations and isotopes from the Scripps CO2 program, initiated by C. D. Keeling in the 1960s. The measurements included analysis of flasks collected at an array of ten stations distributed from the Arctic to the Antarctic. The project also supported modeling studies and interpretive work to help understand the origins of the large ~50% increase in the amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 cycle detected at high northern latitudes between 1960 and present and to understand the long-term trend in carbon 13C/12C of CO2. The seasonal cycle work was advanced through collaborations with colleagues at MPI Jena and Imperial College

  1. Influence of spatially dependent, modeled soil carbon emission factors on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Zhangcai [Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue Argonne IL 60439 USA; Dunn, Jennifer B. [Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue Argonne IL 60439 USA; Kwon, Hoyoung [Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K St. NW Washington DC 20006 USA; Mueller, Steffen [Energy Resources Center, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1309 South Halsted Street Chicago IL 60607 USA; Wander, Michelle M. [Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1102 South Goodwin Avenue Urbana IL 61801 USA

    2016-03-03

    Converting land to biofuel feedstock production incurs changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) that can influence biofuel life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates of these land use change (LUC) and life-cycle GHG emissions affect biofuels’ attractiveness and eligibility under a number of renewable fuel policies in the U.S. and abroad. Modeling was used to refine the spatial resolution and depth-extent of domestic estimates of SOC change for land (cropland, cropland pasture, grasslands, and forests) conversion scenarios to biofuel crops (corn, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow). In most regions, conversions from cropland and cropland pasture to biofuel crops led to neutral or small levels of SOC sequestration, while conversion of grassland and forest generally caused net SOC loss. Results of SOC change were incorporated into the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to assess their influence on life-cycle GHG emissions for the biofuels considered. Total LUC GHG emissions (g CO2eq MJ-1) were 2.1–9.3 for corn, -0.7 for corn stover, -3.4–12.9 for switchgrass, and -20.1–-6.2 for Miscanthus; these varied with SOC modeling assumptions applied. Extending soil depth from 30 to 100cm affected spatially-explicit SOC change and overall LUC GHG emissions; however the influence on LUC GHG emissions estimates were less significant in corn and corn stover than cellulosic feedstocks. Total life-cycle GHG emissions (g CO2eq MJ-1, 100cm) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18-26 for switchgrass ethanol, and -0.6–-7 for Miscanthus ethanol.

  2. Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

  3. A tree-ring perspective on the terrestrial carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babst, F.; Alexander, M.R.; Szejner, P.; Trouet, V.; Alexander, M.R.; Moore, D.J.P.; Bouriaud, O.; Klesse, S.; Frank, D.; Roden, J.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.

    2014-01-01

    Tree-ring records can provide valuable information to advance our understanding of contemporary terrestrial carbon cycling and to reconstruct key metrics in the decades preceding monitoring data. The growing use of tree rings in carbon-cycle research is being facilitated by increasing recognition of reciprocal benefits among research communities. Yet, basic questions persist regarding what tree rings represent at the ecosystem level, how to optimally integrate them with other data streams, and what related challenges need to be overcome. It is also apparent that considerable unexplored potential exists for tree rings to refine assessments of terrestrial carbon cycling across a range of temporal and spatial domains. Here, we summarize recent advances and highlight promising paths of investigation with respect to (1) growth phenology, (2) forest productivity trends and variability, (3) CO 2 fertilization and water-use efficiency, (4) forest disturbances, and (5) comparisons between observational and computational forest productivity estimates. We encourage the integration of tree-ring data: with eddy-covariance measurements to investigate carbon allocation patterns and water-use efficiency; with remotely sensed observations to distinguish the timing of cambial growth and leaf phenology; and with forest inventories to develop continuous, annually resolved and long-term carbon budgets. In addition, we note the potential of tree-ring records and derivatives thereof to help evaluate the performance of earth system models regarding the simulated magnitude and dynamics of forest carbon uptake, and inform these models about growth responses to (non-)climatic drivers. Such efforts are expected to improve our understanding of forest carbon cycling and place current developments into a long-term perspective. (authors)

  4. Estimating the potential of energy saving and carbon emission mitigation of cassava-based fuel ethanol using life cycle assessment coupled with a biogeochemical process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dong; Hao, Mengmeng; Fu, Jingying; Tian, Guangjin; Ding, Fangyu

    2017-09-01

    Global warming and increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) have prompted considerable interest in the potential role of energy plant biomass. Cassava-based fuel ethanol is one of the most important bioenergy and has attracted much attention in both developed and developing countries. However, the development of cassava-based fuel ethanol is still faced with many uncertainties, including raw material supply, net energy potential, and carbon emission mitigation potential. Thus, an accurate estimation of these issues is urgently needed. This study provides an approach to estimate energy saving and carbon emission mitigation potentials of cassava-based fuel ethanol through LCA (life cycle assessment) coupled with a biogeochemical process model—GEPIC (GIS-based environmental policy integrated climate) model. The results indicate that the total potential of cassava yield on marginal land in China is 52.51 million t; the energy ratio value varies from 0.07 to 1.44, and the net energy surplus of cassava-based fuel ethanol in China is 92,920.58 million MJ. The total carbon emission mitigation from cassava-based fuel ethanol in China is 4593.89 million kgC. Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian are identified as target regions for large-scale development of cassava-based fuel ethanol industry. These results can provide an operational approach and fundamental data for scientific research and energy planning.

  5. Modeling interactions of soil hydrological dynamics and soil thermal and permafrost dynamics and their effects on carbon cycling in northern high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Q.; Tang, J.

    2008-12-01

    Large areas of northern high latitude ecosystems are underlain with permafrost. The warming temperature and fires deteriorate the stability of those permafrost, altering hydrological cycle, and consequently soil temperature and active layer depth. These changes will determine the fate of large carbon pools in soils and permafrost over the region. We developed a modeling framework of hydrology, permafrost, and biogeochemical dynamics based on our existing modules of these components. The framework was incorporated with a new snow dynamics module and the effects of soil moisture on soil thermal properties. The framework was tested for tundra and boreal forest ecosystems at field sites with respect to soil thermal and hydrological regimes in Alaska and was then applied to the whole Alaskan ecosystems for the period of 1923-2000 at a daily time step. Our two sets of simulations with and without considering soil moisture effects indicated that the soil temperature profile and active layer depth between two simulations are significant different. The differences of soil thermal regime would expect to result in different carbon dynamics. Next, we will verify the framework with the observed data of soil moisture and soil temperature at poor-drain, moderate-drain, and well-drain boreal forest sites in Alaska. With the verified framework, we will evaluate the effects of interactions of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on carbon dynamics for the whole northern high latitudes.

  6. Coupling between the continental carbon and water cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentine, P.; Lemordant, L. A.; Green, J. K.

    2017-12-01

    The continental carbon adn water cycles are fundamentally coupled through leaf gas exchange at the stomata level. IN this presnetation we will emphasize the importance of this coupling for the future of the water cycle (runoff, evaporation, soil moisture) and in turn the implications for the carbon cycle and the capacity of continents to act as a carbon dioxyde sink in the future. Opprtunites from coupled carbon-water monitoring platforms will be then emphasized.

  7. The GLOBE Carbon Project: Integrating the Science of Carbon Cycling and Climate Change into K-12 Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollinger, S. V.; Silverberg, S.; Albrechtova, J.; Freuder, R.; Gengarelly, L.; Martin, M.; Randolph, G.; Schloss, A.

    2007-12-01

    The global carbon cycle is a key regulator of the Earth's climate and is central to the normal function of ecological systems. Because rising atmospheric CO2 is the principal cause of climate change, understanding how ecosystems cycle and store carbon has become an extremely important issue. In recent years, the growing importance of the carbon cycle has brought it to the forefront of both science and environmental policy. The need for better scientific understanding has led to establishment of numerous research programs, such as the North American Carbon Program (NACP), which seeks to understand controls on carbon cycling under present and future conditions. Parallel efforts are greatly needed to integrate state-of-the-art science on the carbon cycle and its importance to climate with education and outreach efforts that help prepare society to make sound decisions on energy use, carbon management and climate change adaptation. Here, we present a new effort that joins carbon cycle scientists with the International GLOBE Education program to develop carbon cycle activities for K-12 classrooms. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle project is focused on bringing cutting edge research and research techniques in the field of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling into the classroom. Students will collect data about their school field site through existing protocols of phenology, land cover and soils as well as new protocols focused on leaf traits, and ecosystem growth and change. They will also participate in classroom activities to understand carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, these will include plant- a-plant experiments, hands-on demonstrations of various concepts, and analysis of collected data. In addition to the traditional GLOBE experience, students will have the opportunity to integrate their data with emerging and expanding technologies including global and local carbon cycle models and remote sensing toolkits. This program design will allow students to explore research

  8. Final Technical Report. Supporting carbon cycle and earth systems modeling with measurements and analysis from the Howland AmeriFlux Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollinger, David [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States); Davidson, E. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Dail, D. B. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States); Richardson, A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2016-01-11

    This report provides and overview of the work carried out and lists the products produced under the terms of agreement SC0005578 with the USDA Forest Service. This relates to scientific investigation of the carbon cycle at the Howland Forest AmeriFlux site located in central Maine, USDA. The overall goal of this work was to understand the various (and interacting) impacts of a changing climate on carbon cycling at the Howland AmeriFlux site, representative of an important component of the North American boreal forest.

  9. MODELLING OF NON-ROAD TRANSIENT CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Kotus

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the modeling of NRTC (Non-Road Transient Cycle test procedure based on previously measured characteristics of fuel consumption, carbon monoxide (CO, carbon dioxide (CO2, hydrocarbons (HC, nitrogen oxides (NOx and particulates (PM production. It makes possible to compare the current technical condition of an internal combustion engine of an agricultural tractor with its previous state or other tractor’s engine. Based on measured characteristics, it is also possible to model any other cycle without further measurements (NRSC test procedure, cycle for specific conditions – mountain tractor, etc.. The result may thus contribute to improving the environment by reducing the production of harmful substances emitted into the air and save money due to reduced fuel consumption.

  10. Inland Waters and the North American Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butman, D. E.; Striegl, R. G.; Stackpoole, S. M.; del Giorgio, P.; Prairie, Y.; Pilcher, D.; Raymond, P. A.; Alcocer, J.; Paz, F.

    2016-12-01

    Inland aquatic ecosystems process, store, and release carbon to the atmosphere and coastal margins. The form of this carbon is a function of terrestrial and aquatic primary and secondary production, the weathering of materials in soils and subsurface environments, the hydrologic controls on the movement of carbon from land to inland waters, and the connectivity between streams, rivers, lakes, reservoirs and groundwater. The 2007 1st State of the Carbon Cycle reported fluxes for the continental United States (CONUS) only. Streams and rivers exported 30-40 Tg C yr-1 to coastal environments, and 17-25 Tg C yr-1 were buried in lake and reservoir sediments. Remarkably, the 2007 report did not quantify gas emissions, which represent over half of the total carbon fluxes through inland water in the US. Current research has shown that 71-149 Tg C yr-1 exits freshwater systems either through atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide or as inorganic and organic carbon fluxes to the coast from the CONUS. These estimates did not include the Laurentian Great Lakes. Variation in the magnitude of these fluxes across regions of the CONUS has been linked to differences in precipitation and terrestrial net ecosystem production. Similar comprehensive assessments have not been done for Canada or Mexico. Here we provide, as part of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle report, estimates for the river coastal export and vertical emissions of carbon from inland waters of North America, and report major data gaps, and weaknesses in methodologies. These findings stress that strong international partnerships are needed to improve assessment, monitoring, and modeling of human impacts on the magnitude and timing of aquatic fluxes in the future.

  11. Bacterial carbon cycling in a subarctic fjord

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Middelboe, Mathias; Glud, Ronnie Nøhr; Sejr, M.K.

    2012-01-01

    of viruses on bacterial mortality (4–36% of cell production) and carbon cycling. Heterotrophic bacterial consumption was closely coupled with autochthonous BDOC production, and the majority of the primary production was consumed by pelagic bacteria at all seasons. The relatively low measured BGE emphasized......In this seasonal study, we examined the environmental controls and quantitative importance of bacterial carbon consumption in the water column and the sediment in the subarctic Kobbefjord, Greenland. Depth-integrated bacterial production in the photic zone varied from 5.0 ± 2.7 mg C m−2 d−1...... in February to 42 ± 28 mg C m−2 d−1 in May and 34 ± 7 mg C m−2 d−1 in September, corresponding to a bacterial production to primary production ratio of 0.34 ± 0.14, 0.07 ± 0.04, and 0.08 ± 0.06, respectively. Based on measured bacterial growth efficiencies (BGEs) of 0.09–0.10, pelagic bacterial carbon...

  12. Society and the Carbon Cycle: A Social Science Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Lankao, P.

    2017-12-01

    Societal activities, actions, and practices affect the carbon cycle and the climate of North America in complex ways. Carbon is a key component for the functioning of croplands, grasslands, forests. Carbon fuels our industry, transportation (vehicles and roadways), buildings, and other structures. Drawing on results from the SOCCR-2, this presentation uses a social science perspective to address three scientific questions. How do human actions and activities affect the carbon cycle? How human systems such as cities, agricultural field and forests are affected by changes in the carbon cycle? How is carbon management enabled and constraint by socio-political dynamics?

  13. Carbon cycling in the deep eastern North Pacific benthic food web: Investigating the effect of organic carbon input

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dunlop, K.M.; Van Oevelen, D.; Ruhl, H.A.; Huffard, C.L.; Kuhnz, L.A.; Smith, K.L.

    2016-01-01

    The deep ocean benthic environment plays a role in long-term carbon sequestration. Understanding carbon cycling in the deep ocean floor is critical to evaluate the impact of changing climate on the oceanic systems. Linear inverse modeling was used to quantify carbon transfer between compartments in

  14. Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, S

    2013-07-05

    Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

  15. Quadratic reactivity fuel cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewins, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    For educational purposes it is highly desirable to provide simple yet realistic models for fuel cycle and fuel economy. In particular, a lumped model without recourse to detailed spatial calculations would be very helpful in providing the student with a proper understanding of the purposes of fuel cycle calculations. A teaching model for fuel cycle studies based on a lumped model assuming the summability of partial reactivities with a linear dependence of reactivity usefully illustrates fuel utilization concepts. The linear burnup model does not satisfactorily represent natural enrichment reactors. A better model, showing the trend of initial plutonium production before subsequent fuel burnup and fission product generation, is a quadratic fit. The study of M-batch cycles, reloading 1/Mth of the core at end of cycle, is now complicated by nonlinear equations. A complete account of the asymptotic cycle for any order of M-batch refueling can be given and compared with the linear model. A complete account of the transient cycle can be obtained readily in the two-batch model and this exact solution would be useful in verifying numerical marching models. It is convenient to treat the parabolic fit rho = 1 - tau 2 as a special case of the general quadratic fit rho = 1 - C/sub tau/ - (1 - C)tau 2 in suitably normalized reactivity and cycle time units. The parabolic results are given in this paper

  16. A low cycle fatigue model for low carbon manganese steel including the effect of dynamic strain aging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Zhi Yong, E-mail: huangzy@scu.edu.cn [Sichuan University, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, No.29 Jiuyanqiao Wangjiang Road, Chengdu 610064 (China); Wagner, Danièle [Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense (France); Wang, Qing Yuan; Khan, Muhammad Kashif [Sichuan University, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, No.29 Jiuyanqiao Wangjiang Road, Chengdu 610064 (China); Chaboche, Jean–Louis [ONERA, DMSM, 29 avenue de la Division Lecerc, F-92320, Chatillon (France)

    2016-01-27

    Carbon–manganese steel A48 (French standards) is used in steam generator pipes of the nuclear power plant where it is subjected to the cyclic thermal load. The Dynamic Strain Aging (DSA) influences the mechanical behavior of the steel in low cycle fatigue (LCF) at favorable temperature and strain rate. The peak stress of A48 steel experiences hardening–softening–hardening (HSH) evolution at 200 °C and 0.4% s{sup −1} strain rate in fatigue loading. In this study, isotropic and kinematic hardening rules with DSA effect have been modified. The HSH evolution of cyclic stress associated with cumulative plastic deformation has also been estimated.

  17. Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi; Arneth, Almut

    2015-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO 2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand

  18. Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atul Jain; Xiaojuan Yang; Haroon Kheshgi; A. David McGuire; Wilfred Post; David. Kicklighter

    2009-01-01

    Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen...

  19. Comparative carbon cycle dynamics of the present and last interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, Victor; Brücher, Tim; Kleinen, Thomas; Zaehle, Sönke; Joos, Fortunat; Roth, Raphael; Spahni, Renato; Schmitt, Jochen; Fischer, Hubertus; Leuenberger, Markus; Stone, Emma J.; Ridgwell, Andy; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Blunier, Thomas; Dahl Jensen, Dorthe

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO2 remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO2 fertilization, land use, wildfire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO2 dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO2 and δ13CO2 changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO2 dynamics from 8 ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO2 changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO2 dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO3 accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO2 dynamics - shallow water CaCO3 accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics - are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global

  20. Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon-nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Medlyn, Belinda E; De Kauwe, Martin G; Walker, Anthony P; Dietze, Michael C; Hickler, Thomas; Luo, Yiqi; Wang, Ying-Ping; El-Masri, Bassil; Thornton, Peter; Jain, Atul; Wang, Shusen; Warlind, David; Weng, Ensheng; Parton, William; Iversen, Colleen M; Gallet-Budynek, Anne; McCarthy, Heather; Finzi, Adrien; Hanson, Paul J; Prentice, I Colin; Oren, Ram; Norby, Richard J

    2014-05-01

    We analysed the responses of 11 ecosystem models to elevated atmospheric [CO2 ] (eCO2 ) at two temperate forest ecosystems (Duke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments) to test alternative representations of carbon (C)-nitrogen (N) cycle processes. We decomposed the model responses into component processes affecting the response to eCO2 and confronted these with observations from the FACE experiments. Most of the models reproduced the observed initial enhancement of net primary production (NPP) at both sites, but none was able to simulate both the sustained 10-yr enhancement at Duke and the declining response at ORNL: models generally showed signs of progressive N limitation as a result of lower than observed plant N uptake. Nonetheless, many models showed qualitative agreement with observed component processes. The results suggest that improved representation of above-ground-below-ground interactions and better constraints on plant stoichiometry are important for a predictive understanding of eCO2 effects. Improved accuracy of soil organic matter inventories is pivotal to reduce uncertainty in the observed C-N budgets. The two FACE experiments are insufficient to fully constrain terrestrial responses to eCO2 , given the complexity of factors leading to the observed diverging trends, and the consequential inability of the models to explain these trends. Nevertheless, the ecosystem models were able to capture important features of the experiments, lending some support to their projections. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  1. Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

    2018-05-01

    Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

  2. Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris

    2006-01-01

    Avoiding 'dangerous climate change' by stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at a desired level requires reducing the rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions so that they are balanced by uptake of carbon by the natural terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles. Previous calculations of profiles of emissions which lead to stabilized CO 2 levels have assumed no impact of climate change on this natural carbon uptake. However, future climate change effects on the land carbon cycle are predicted to reduce its ability to act as a sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions and so quantification of this feedback is required to determine future permissible emissions. Here, we assess the impact of the climate-carbon cycle feedback and attempt to quantify its uncertainty due to both within-model parameter uncertainty and between-model structural uncertainty. We assess the use of observational constraints to reduce uncertainty in the future permissible emissions for climate stabilization and find that all realistic carbon cycle feedbacks consistent with the observational record give permissible emissions significantly less than previously assumed. However, the observational record proves to be insufficient to tightly constrain carbon cycle processes or future feedback strength with implications for climate-carbon cycle model evaluation

  3. How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Rayner, P.

    2003-01-01

    Future climate change induced by atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases is believed to have a large impact on the global carbon cycle. Several offline studies focusing either on the marine or on the terrestrial carbon cycle highlighted such potential effects. Two recent online studies, using ocean-atmosphere general circulation models coupled to land and ocean carbon cycle models, investigated in a consistent way the feedback between the climate change and the carbon cycle. These two studies used observed anthropogenic CO 2 emissions for the 1860-1995 period and IPCC scenarios for the 1995-2100 period to force the climate - carbon cycle models. The study from the Hadley Centre group showed a very large positive feedback, atmospheric CO 2 reaching 980 ppmv by 2100 if future climate impacts on the carbon cycle, but only about 700 ppmv if the carbon cycle is included but assumed to be insensitive to the climate change. The IPSL coupled climate - carbon cycle model simulated a much smaller positive feedback: climate impact on the carbon cycle leads by 2100 to an addition of less than 100 ppmv in the atmosphere. Here we perform a detailed feedback analysis to show that such differences are due to two key processes that are still poorly constrained in these coupled models: first Southern Ocean circulation, which primarily controls the geochemical uptake of CO 2 , and second vegetation and soil carbon response to global warming. Our analytical analysis reproduces remarkably the results obtained by the fully coupled models. Also it allows us to identify that, amongst the two processes mentioned above, the latter (the land response to global warming) is the one that essentially explains the differences between the IPSL and the Hadley results

  4. Feedback of global warming to soil carbon cycling in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, Kaneyuki

    1993-01-01

    Thus in this study the simulation of soil carbon cycling and dynamics of its storage in several types of mature forests developed from the cool-temperate to the tropics was carried out for quantitatively assessing carbon loss from the soil under several scenarios of global warming, based on the model of soil carbon cycling in forest ecosystems (Nakane et al. 1984, 1987 and Nakane 1992). (J.P.N.)

  5. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  6. What Have We Learned About Arctic Carbon Since The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.

    2015-12-01

    Large pools of organic carbon were reported in The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report, but measurements from high latitude ecosystems, in particular for deeper soils >1m depth, remained scarce. A newly enlarged soil carbon database with an order of magnitude more numerous deep sampling sites has verified the widespread pattern of large quantities of carbon accumulated deep in permafrost (perennially frozen) soils. The known pool of permafrost carbon across the northern circumpolar permafrost zone is now estimated to be 1330-1580 Pg C, with the potential for an additional ~400 Pg C in deep permafrost sediments. In addition, an uncertainty estimate of plus/minus 15% has now been calculated for the soil carbon pool in the surface 0-3m. Laboratory incubations of these permafrost soils reveal that a significant fraction can be mineralized by microbes upon thaw and converted to carbon dioxide and methane on time scales of years to decades, with decade-long average losses from aerobic incubations ranging from 6-34% of initial carbon. Carbon emissions from the same soils incubated in an anaerobic environment are, on average, 78-85% lower than aerobic soils. But, the more potent greenhouse gas methane released under anaerobic conditions in part increases the climate impact of these emissions. While mean quantities of methane are only 3% to 7% that of carbon dioxide emitted from anaerobic incubations (by weight of C), these mean methane values represent 25% to 45% of the overall potential impact on climate when accounting for the higher global warming potential of methane. Taken together though, in spite of the more potent greenhouse gas methane, a unit of newly thawed permafrost carbon could have a greater impact on climate over a century if it thaws and decomposes within a drier, aerobic soil as compared to an equivalent amount of carbon within a waterlogged soil or sediment. Model projections tend to estimate losses of carbon in line with empirical measurements, but

  7. Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Tjiputra

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO2 gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO2 partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even

  8. Iron cycling at corroding carbon steel surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jason S.; McBeth, Joyce M.; Ray, Richard I.; Little, Brenda J.; Emerson, David

    2013-01-01

    Surfaces of carbon steel (CS) exposed to mixed cultures of iron-oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) and dissimilatory iron-reducing bacteria (FeRB) in seawater media under aerobic conditions were rougher than surfaces of CS exposed to pure cultures of either type of microorganism. The roughened surface, demonstrated by profilometry, is an indication of loss of metal from the surface. In the presence of CS, aerobically grown FeOB produced tight, twisted helical stalks encrusted with iron oxides. When CS was exposed anaerobically in the presence of FeRB, some surface oxides were removed. However, when the same FeOB and FeRB were grown together in an aerobic medium, FeOB stalks were less encrusted with iron oxides and appeared less tightly coiled. These observations suggest that iron oxides on the stalks were reduced and solubilized by the FeRB. Roughened surfaces of CS and denuded stalks were replicated with three culture combinations of different species of FeOB and FeRB under three experimental conditions. Measurements of electrochemical polarization resistance established different rates of corrosion of CS in aerobic and anaerobic media, but could not differentiate rate differences between sterile controls and inoculated exposures for a given bulk concentration of dissolved oxygen. Similarly, total iron in the electrolyte could not be used to differentiate treatments. The experiments demonstrate the potential for iron cycling (oxidation and reduction) on corroding CS in aerobic seawater media. PMID:24093730

  9. Reviews and syntheses: Systematic Earth observations for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholze, Marko; Buchwitz, Michael; Dorigo, Wouter; Guanter, Luis; Quegan, Shaun

    2017-07-01

    The global carbon cycle is an important component of the Earth system and it interacts with the hydrology, energy and nutrient cycles as well as ecosystem dynamics. A better understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for improved projections of climate change including corresponding changes in water and food resources and for the verification of measures to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. An improved understanding of the carbon cycle can be achieved by data assimilation systems, which integrate observations relevant to the carbon cycle into coupled carbon, water, energy and nutrient models. Hence, the ingredients for such systems are a carbon cycle model, an algorithm for the assimilation and systematic and well error-characterised observations relevant to the carbon cycle. Relevant observations for assimilation include various in situ measurements in the atmosphere (e.g. concentrations of CO2 and other gases) and on land (e.g. fluxes of carbon water and energy, carbon stocks) as well as remote sensing observations (e.g. atmospheric composition, vegetation and surface properties).We briefly review the different existing data assimilation techniques and contrast them to model benchmarking and evaluation efforts (which also rely on observations). A common requirement for all assimilation techniques is a full description of the observational data properties. Uncertainty estimates of the observations are as important as the observations themselves because they similarly determine the outcome of such assimilation systems. Hence, this article reviews the requirements of data assimilation systems on observations and provides a non-exhaustive overview of current observations and their uncertainties for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation. We report on progress since the review of model-data synthesis in terrestrial carbon observations by Raupach et al.(2005), emphasising the rapid advance in relevant space-based observations.

  10. Chemistry of organic carbon in soil with relationship to the global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, W.M. III.

    1988-01-01

    Various ecosystem disturbances alter the balances between production of organic matter and its decomposition and therefore change the amount of carbon in soil. The most severe perturbation is conversion of natural vegetation to cultivated crops. Conversion of natural vegetation to cultivated crops results in a lowered input of slowly decomposing material which causes a reduction in overall carbon levels. Disruption of soil matrix structure by cultivation leads to lowered physical protection of organic matter resulting in an increased net mineralization rate of soil carbon. Climate change is another perturbation that affects the amount and composition of plant production, litter inputs, and decomposition regimes but does not affect soil structure directly. Nevertheless, large changes in soil carbon storage are probable with anticipated CO 2 induced climate change, particularly in northern latitudes where anticipated climate change will be greatest (MacCracken and Luther 1985) and large amounts of soil organic matter are found. It is impossible, given the current state of knowledge of soil organic matter processes and transformations to develop detailed process models of soil carbon dynamics. Largely phenomenological models appear to be developing into predictive tools for understanding the role of soil organic matter in the global carbon cycle. In particular, these models will be useful in quantifying soil carbon changes due to human land-use and to anticipated global climate and vegetation changes. 47 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land

  12. Trailblazing the Carbon Cycle of Tropical Forests from Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandra Brown; Ariel Lugo

    2017-01-01

    We review the literature that led to clarifying the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle from a time when they were considered sources of atmospheric carbon to the time when they were found to be atmospheric carbon sinks. This literature originates from work conducted by US Forest Service scientists in Puerto Rico and their collaborators. It involves the...

  13. Advanced Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Mark [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Sienicki, James [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moisseytsev, Anton [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Nellis, Gregory [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Klein, Sanford [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2015-10-21

    Fluids operating in the supercritical state have promising characteristics for future high efficiency power cycles. In order to develop power cycles using supercritical fluids, it is necessary to understand the flow characteristics of fluids under both supercritical and two-phase conditions. In this study, a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) methodology was developed for supercritical fluids flowing through complex geometries. A real fluid property module was implemented to provide properties for different supercritical fluids. However, in each simulation case, there is only one species of fluid. As a result, the fluid property module provides properties for either supercritical CO2 (S-CO2) or supercritical water (SCW). The Homogeneous Equilibrium Model (HEM) was employed to model the two-phase flow. HEM assumes two phases have same velocity, pressure, and temperature, making it only applicable for the dilute dispersed two-phase flow situation. Three example geometries, including orifices, labyrinth seals, and valves, were used to validate this methodology with experimental data. For the first geometry, S-CO2 and SCW flowing through orifices were simulated and compared with experimental data. The maximum difference between the mass flow rate predictions and experimental measurements is less than 5%. This is a significant improvement as previous works can only guarantee 10% error. In this research, several efforts were made to help this improvement. First, an accurate real fluid module was used to provide properties. Second, the upstream condition was determined by pressure and density, which determines supercritical states more precise than using pressure and temperature. For the second geometry, the flow through labyrinth seals was studied. After a successful validation, parametric studies were performed to study geometric effects on the leakage rate. Based on these parametric studies, an optimum design strategy for the see

  14. Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

    2006-01-01

    We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each...

  15. Slow growth rates of Amazonian trees: Consequences for carbon cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Simone; Trumbore, Susan; Camargo, Plinio B.; Selhorst, Diogo; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; Martinelli, Luiz Antonio

    2005-01-01

    Quantifying age structure and tree growth rate of Amazonian forests is essential for understanding their role in the carbon cycle. Here, we use radiocarbon dating and direct measurement of diameter increment to document unexpectedly slow growth rates for trees from three locations spanning the Brazilian Amazon basin. Central Amazon trees, averaging only ≈1mm/year diameter increment, grow half as fast as those from areas with more seasonal rainfall to the east and west. Slow growth rates mean that trees can attain great ages; across our sites we estimate 17-50% of trees with diameter >10 cm have ages exceeding 300 years. Whereas a few emergent trees that make up a large portion of the biomass grow faster, small trees that are more abundant grow slowly and attain ages of hundreds of years. The mean age of carbon in living trees (60-110 years) is within the range of or slightly longer than the mean residence time calculated from C inventory divided by annual C allocation to wood growth (40-100 years). Faster C turnover is observed in stands with overall higher rates of diameter increment and a larger fraction of the biomass in large, fast-growing trees. As a consequence, forests can recover biomass relatively quickly after disturbance, whereas recovering species composition may take many centuries. Carbon cycle models that apply a single turnover time for carbon in forest biomass do not account for variations in life strategy and therefore may overestimate the carbon sequestration potential of Amazon forests. PMID:16339903

  16. A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

    2010-01-01

    We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

  17. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  18. Carbon cycling and calcification in hypersaline microbial mats

    OpenAIRE

    Ludwig, Rebecca

    2004-01-01

    Phototrophic microbial mats are laminated aggregations of microorganisms that thrive in extreme and oligotrophic environments. Primary production rates by oxygenic phototrophs are extremely high. Primary producers supply heterotrophic mat members with organic carbon, which in turn regenerate CO2 needed for autotrophic carbon fixation. Another potential source of CO2 is calcification, which is known to shift the carbonate equilibrium towards CO2. This thesis investigated the carbon cycle of mi...

  19. Soil organic matter dynamics and the global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, W.M.; Emanuel, W.R.; King, A.W.

    1992-01-01

    The large size and potentially long residence time of the soil organic matter pool make it an important component of the global carbon cycle. Net terrestrial primary production of about 60 Pg C·yr -1 is, over a several-year period of time, balanced by an equivalent flux of litter production and subsequent decomposition of detritus and soil organic matter. We will review many of the major factors that influence soil organic matter dynamics that need to be explicitly considered in development of global estimates of carbon turnover in the world's soils. We will also discuss current decomposition models that are general enough to be used to develop a representation of global soil organic matter dynamics

  20. Marine geochemistry ocean circulation, carbon cycle and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Roy-Barman, Matthieu

    2016-01-01

    Marine geochemistry uses chemical elements and their isotopes to study how the ocean works. It brings quantitative answers to questions such as: What is the deep ocean mixing rate? How much atmospheric CO2 is pumped by the ocean? How fast are pollutants removed from the ocean? How do ecosystems react to the anthropogenic pressure? The book provides a simple introduction to the concepts (environmental chemistry, isotopes), the methods (field approach, remote sensing, modeling) and the applications (ocean circulation, carbon cycle, climate change) of marine geochemistry with a particular emphasis on isotopic tracers. Marine geochemistry is not an isolated discipline: numerous openings on physical oceanography, marine biology, climatology, geology, pollutions and ecology are proposed and provide a global vision of the ocean. It includes new topics based on ongoing research programs such as GEOTRACES, Global Carbon Project, Tara Ocean. It provides a complete outline for a course in marine geochemistry. To favor a...

  1. Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

    2012-03-01

    The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

  2. Microbial potential for carbon and nutrient cycling in a geogenic supercritical carbon dioxide reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Adam J E; Tan, BoonFei; Thompson, Janelle R

    2017-06-01

    Microorganisms catalyze carbon cycling and biogeochemical reactions in the deep subsurface and thus may be expected to influence the fate of injected supercritical (sc) CO 2 following geological carbon sequestration (GCS). We hypothesized that natural subsurface scCO 2 reservoirs, which serve as analogs for the long-term fate of sequestered scCO 2 , harbor a 'deep carbonated biosphere' with carbon cycling potential. We sampled subsurface fluids from scCO 2 -water separators at a natural scCO 2 reservoir at McElmo Dome, Colorado for analysis of 16S rRNA gene diversity and metagenome content. Sequence annotations indicated dominance of Sulfurospirillum, Rhizobium, Desulfovibrio and four members of the Clostridiales family. Genomes extracted from metagenomes using homology and compositional approaches revealed diverse mechanisms for growth and nutrient cycling, including pathways for CO 2 and N 2 fixation, anaerobic respiration, sulfur oxidation, fermentation and potential for metabolic syntrophy. Differences in biogeochemical potential between two production well communities were consistent with differences in fluid chemical profiles, suggesting a potential link between microbial activity and geochemistry. The existence of a microbial ecosystem associated with the McElmo Dome scCO 2 reservoir indicates that potential impacts of the deep biosphere on CO 2 fate and transport should be taken into consideration as a component of GCS planning and modelling. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The role of urbanization in the global carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina eChurkina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas account for more than 70% of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Urban expansion in tropics is responsible for 5% of the annual emissions from land use change. Here I show that the effect of urbanization on the global carbon cycle extends beyond these emissions. I quantify the contribution of urbanization to the major carbon fluxes and pools globally and identify gaps crucial for predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the future. Urban residents currently control ~22 (12-40 % of the land carbon uptake (112 PgC/yr and ~24 (15-39 % of the carbon emissions (117 PgC/yr from land globally. Urbanization resulted in the creation of new carbon pools on land such as buildings (~6.7 PgC and landfills (~30 PgC. Together these pools store 1.6 (±0.3 % of the total vegetation and soil carbon pools globally. The creation and maintenance of these new pools has been associated with high emissions of CO2, which are currently better understood than the processes associated with the dynamics of these pools and accompanying uptake of carbon. Predictions of the future trajectories of the global carbon cycle will require a much better understanding of how urban development affects the carbon cycle over the long term.

  4. Warm ocean processes and carbon cycling in the Eocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Eleanor H; Pearson, Paul N; Coxall, Helen K; Birch, Heather; Wade, Bridget S; Foster, Gavin L

    2013-10-28

    Sea surface and subsurface temperatures over large parts of the ocean during the Eocene epoch (55.5-33.7 Ma) exceeded modern values by several degrees, which must have affected a number of oceanic processes. Here, we focus on the effect of elevated water column temperatures on the efficiency of the biological pump, particularly in relation to carbon and nutrient cycling. We use stable isotope values from exceptionally well-preserved planktonic foraminiferal calcite from Tanzania and Mexico to reconstruct vertical carbon isotope gradients in the upper water column, exploiting the fact that individual species lived and calcified at different depths. The oxygen isotope ratios of different species' tests are used to estimate the temperature of calcification, which we converted to absolute depths using Eocene temperature profiles generated by general circulation models. This approach, along with potential pitfalls, is illustrated using data from modern core-top assemblages from the same area. Our results indicate that, during the Early and Middle Eocene, carbon isotope gradients were steeper (and larger) through the upper thermocline than in the modern ocean. This is consistent with a shallower average depth of organic matter remineralization and supports previously proposed hypotheses that invoke high metabolic rates in a warm Eocene ocean, leading to more efficient recycling of organic matter and reduced burial rates of organic carbon.

  5. Hydrological effects on carbon cycles of Canada's forests and wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ju, Weimin; Chen, Jing M.; Black, T. Andrew; Barr, Alan G.; Mccaughey, Harry; Roulet, Nigel T.

    2006-01-01

    The hydrological cycle has significant effects on the terrestrial carbon (C) balance through its controls on photosynthesis and C decomposition. A detailed representation of the water cycle in terrestrial C cycle models is essential for reliable estimates of C budgets. However, it is challenging to accurately describe the spatial and temporal variations of soil water, especially for regional and global applications. Vertical and horizontal movements of soil water should be included. To constrain the hydrology-related uncertainty in modelling the regional C balance, a three-dimensional hydrological module was incorporated into the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget model (InTEC V3.0). We also added an explicit parameterization of wetlands. The inclusion of the hydrological module considerably improved the model's ability to simulate C content and balances in different ecosystems. Compared with measurements at five flux-tower sites, the model captured 85% and 82% of the variations in volumetric soil moisture content in the 0-10 cm and 10-30 cm depths during the growing season and 84% of the interannual variability in the measured C balance. The simulations showed that lateral subsurface water redistribution is a necessary mechanism for simulating water table depth for both poorly drained forest and peatland sites. Nationally, soil C content and their spatial variability are significantly related to drainage class. Poorly drained areas are important C sinks at the regional scale, however, their soil C content and balances are difficult to model and may have been inadequately represented in previous C cycle models. The InTEC V3.0 model predicted an annual net C uptake by Canada's forests and wetlands for the period 1901-1998 of 111.9 Tg C/yr, which is 41.4 Tg C/yr larger than our previous estimate (InTEC V2.0). The increase in the net C uptake occurred mainly in poorly drained regions and resulted from the inclusion of a separate wetland parameterization

  6. Features of supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle coupled with reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Chengjie; Wang Jie; Yang Xiaoyong

    2010-01-01

    In order to obtain acceptable cycle efficiency, current helium gas turbine power cycle technology needs high cycle temperature which means that the cycle needs high core-out temperature. The technology has high requirements on reactor structure and fuel elements materials, and also on turbine manufacture. While utilizing CO 2 as cycle working fluid, it can guarantee to lower the cycle temperature and turbo machine Janume but achieve the same cycle efficiency, so as to enhance the safety and economy of reactor. According to the laws of thermodynamics, a calculation model of supercritical CO 2 power cycle was established to analyze the feature, and the decisive parameters of the cycle and also investigate the effect of each parameter on the cycle efficiency in detail were obtained. The results show that supercritical CO 2 power cycle can achieve quite satisfied efficiency at a lower cycle highest temperature than helium cycle, and CO 2 is a promising working fluid. (authors)

  7. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-07-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report.

  8. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO2 transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report

  9. Mixed-layer carbon cycling at the Kuroshio Extension Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassbender, Andrea J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Cronin, Meghan F.; Sutton, Adrienne J.

    2017-02-01

    Seven years of data from the NOAA Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) surface mooring, located in the North Pacific Ocean carbon sink region, were used to evaluate drivers of mixed-layer carbon cycling. A time-dependent mass balance approach relying on two carbon tracers was used to diagnostically evaluate how surface ocean processes influence mixed-layer carbon concentrations over the annual cycle. Results indicate that the annual physical carbon input is predominantly balanced by biological carbon uptake during the intense spring bloom. Net annual gas exchange that adds carbon to the mixed layer and the opposing influence of net precipitation that dilutes carbon concentrations make up smaller contributions to the annual mixed-layer carbon budget. Decomposing the biological term into annual net community production (aNCP) and calcium carbonate production (aCaCO3) yields 7 ± 3 mol C m-2 yr-1 aNCP and 0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m-2 yr-1 aCaCO3, giving an annually integrated particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon production ratio of 0.07 ± 0.05, as a lower limit. Although we find that vertical physical processes dominate carbon input to the mixed layer at KEO, it remains unclear how horizontal features, such as eddies, influence carbon production and export by altering nutrient supply as well as the depth of winter ventilation. Further research evaluating linkages between Kuroshio Extension jet instabilities, eddy activity, and nutrient supply mechanisms is needed to adequately characterize the drivers and sensitivities of carbon cycling near KEO.

  10. Description, calibration and sensitivity analysis of the local ecosystem submodel of a global model of carbon and nitrogen cycling and the water balance in the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kercher, J.R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Chambers, J.Q. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)]|[California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences

    1995-10-01

    We have developed a geographically-distributed ecosystem model for the carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics of the terrestrial biosphere TERRA. The local ecosystem model of TERRA consists of coupled, modified versions of TEM and DAYTRANS. The ecosystem model in each grid cell calculates water fluxes of evaporation, transpiration, and runoff; carbon fluxes of gross primary productivity, litterfall, and plant and soil respiration; and nitrogen fluxes of vegetation uptake, litterfall, mineralization, immobilization, and system loss. The state variables are soil water content; carbon in live vegetation; carbon in soil; nitrogen in live vegetation; organic nitrogen in soil and fitter; available inorganic nitrogen aggregating nitrites, nitrates, and ammonia; and a variable for allocation. Carbon and nitrogen dynamics are calibrated to specific sites in 17 vegetation types. Eight parameters are determined during calibration for each of the 17 vegetation types. At calibration, the annual average values of carbon in vegetation C, show site differences that derive from the vegetation-type specific parameters and intersite variation in climate and soils. From calibration, we recover the average C{sub v} of forests, woodlands, savannas, grasslands, shrublands, and tundra that were used to develop the model initially. The timing of the phases of the annual variation is driven by temperature and light in the high latitude and moist temperate zones. The dry temperate zones are driven by temperature, precipitation, and light. In the tropics, precipitation is the key variable in annual variation. The seasonal responses are even more clearly demonstrated in net primary production and show the same controlling factors.

  11. The carbon cycle and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    Five land-use-based approaches can be used to slow the buildup of CO 2 in the atmosphere: slowing or stopping the loss of existing forests, thus preserving current carbon reservoirs; adding to the planet's vegetative cover through reforestation or other means, thus enlarging living terrestrial carbon reservoirs; increasing the carbon stored in nonliving carbon reservoirs such as agricultural soils; increasing the carbon stored in artificial reservoirs, including timber products; and substituting sustainable biomass energy sources for fossil fuel consumption, thus reducing energy-related carbon emissions. These approaches are all based on the same basic premise: adding to the planet's net carbon stores in vegetative cover or soil, or preventing any net loss, will help moderate global warming by keeping atmospheric CO 2 levels lower than they would otherwise be. Because biotic policy options appear capable of contributing significantly to the mitigation of global warming while also furthering many other public policy objectives, their role deserves careful consideration on a country-by-country basis

  12. Interactions of carbon and water cycles in north temperate wetlands: Modeling and observing the impact of a declining water table trend on regional biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin N. Sulman; Ankur R. Desai; D.S. Mackay; S. Samanta; B.D. Cook; N. Saliendra

    2008-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon fluxes represent a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation and consequently models of climate change. In the Upper Great Lakes states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan), wetlands cover 14% of the land area, and compose up to one third of the land cover in the forest-wetland landscapes that dominate...

  13. Evaluation of carbon-14 life cycle in reactors VVER-1000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lysakova, Katerina; Neumann, Jan; Vonkova, Katerina

    2012-09-01

    This work is aimed at the evaluation of carbon-14 life cycle in light water reactors VVER-1000. Carbon-14 is generated as a side product in different systems of nuclear reactors and has been an issue not only in radioactive waste management but mainly in release into the environment in the form of gaseous effluents. The principal sources of this radionuclide are in primary cooling water and fuel. Considerable amount of C-14 is generated by neutron reactions with oxygen 17 O and nitrogen 14 N present in water coolant and fuel. The reaction likelihood and consequently volume of generated radioisotope depends on several factors, especially on the effective cross-section, concentrations of parent elements and conditions of power plant operating strategies. Due to its long half-life and high capability of integration into the environment and thus into the living species, it is very important to monitor the movement of carbon-14 in all systems of nuclear power plant and to manage its release out of NPP. The dominant forms of radioactive carbon-14 are the hydrocarbons owing to the combinations with hydrogen used for absorption of radiolytic oxygen. These organic compounds, such as formaldehyde, methyl alcohol, ethyl alcohol and formic acid can be mostly retained on ion exchange resins used in the system for purifying primary cooling water. The gaseous carbon compounds (CH 4 and CO 2 ) are released into the atmosphere via the ventilation systems of NPP. Based on the information and data obtained from different sources, it has been designed a balance model of possible carbon-14 pathways throughout the whole NPP. This model includes also mass balance model equations for each important node in system and available sampling points which will be the background for further calculations. This document is specifically not to intended to describe the best monitoring program attributes or technologies but rather to provide evaluation of obtained data and find the optimal way to

  14. Glassy carbon supercapacitor: 100,000 cycles demonstrated

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baertsch, M; Braun, A; Schnyder, B; Koetz, R [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A 5 V glassy carbon capacitor stack was built consisting of four bipolar and two end-plate electrodes. More than 100,000 charging/discharging cycles were applied to test the stability of the double-layer capacitor. Low and high frequency resistances were measured as a function of the number of cycles. (author) 2 figs., 1 ref.

  15. The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, Eleanor; O'Malley, Mark

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of mechanisms aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions can have a serious impact on electricity system costs. A carbon mechanism that forces generators to internalise their emissions costs may alter the merit order in which generators are dispatched in the market. Heavy carbon dioxide polluters may switch from operating continuously to having to operate on the margin more often. This results in these units being required to switch on and off and vary their output more frequently, which has a significant impact on their costs. In this paper, the impact of carbon prices on the operating profiles of generators in a real electricity system is investigated. A large number of potential scenarios are considered and it is found that carbon prices significantly increase the cycling costs. These increased cycling costs significantly offset the carbon dioxide reduction benefits of the carbon price

  16. Investigators share improved understanding of the North American carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Birdsey; Robert Cook; Scott Denning; Peter Griffith; Beverly Law; Jeffrey Masek; Anna Michalak; Stephen Ogle; Dennis Ojima; Yude Pan; Christopher Sabine; Edwin Sheffner; Eric Sundquist

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. North American Carbon Program (NACP) sponsored an "all-scientist" meeting to review progress in understanding the dynamics of the carbon cycle of North American and adjacent oceans, and to chart a course for improved integration across scientifi c disciplines, scales, and Earth system boundaries. The meeting participants also addressed the need for...

  17. Carbon cycle observations: gaps threaten climate mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; MIke Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; et al.

    2009-01-01

    Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to...

  18. Carbon-14 discharges from the nuclear fuel cycle: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCartney, M.; Baxter, M.S.; Scott, E.M.

    1988-01-01

    The radiological impact of 14 C produced by the nuclear fuel cycle is assessed using an advanced 25-box model of the carbon cycle coupled with a range of feasible energy-use scenarios. In particular, this study estimates both the short- and long-term dose implications to the global population. In the former context, it is predicted that the atmospheric 14 C specific activity in the year 2050 will be 234 Bq kg -1 (carbon), corresponding to delivery of an individual effective dose equivalent rate of 15 μSv year -1 . The contribution of reactor-derived 14 C to the individual dose rate increases steadily throughout this period, reaching 1.8 μSv year -1 in 2050, well within ICRP limits. In the longer term, however, the collective effective dose equivalent commitment is conservatively estimated at 141 man Sv TBq -1 , corresponding to 480 man Sv (GW(e) year) -1 . These figures indicate that 14 C could generate one of the largest contributions to the total dose to man from nuclear power production. (author)

  19. Multiple Observation Types Jointly Constrain Terrestrial Carbon and Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raupach, M. R.; Haverd, V.; Briggs, P. R.; Canadell, J.; Davis, S. J.; Isaac, P. R.; Law, R.; Meyer, M.; Peters, G. P.; Pickett Heaps, C.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Sherman, B.; van Gorsel, E.; Viscarra Rossel, R.; Wang, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Information about the carbon cycle potentially constrains the water cycle, and vice versa. This paper explores the utility of multiple observation sets to constrain carbon and water fluxes and stores in a land surface model, and a resulting determination of the Australian terrestrial carbon budget. Observations include streamflow from 416 gauged catchments, measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 12 eddy-flux sites, litterfall data, and data on carbon pools. The model is a version of CABLE (the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model), coupled with CASAcnp (a biogeochemical model) and SLI (Soil-Litter-Iso, a soil hydrology model including liquid and vapour water fluxes and the effects of litter). By projecting observation-prediction residuals onto model uncertainty, we find that eddy flux measurements provide a significantly tighter constraint on Australian continental net primary production (NPP) than the other data types. However, simultaneous constraint by multiple data types is important for mitigating bias from any single type. Results emerging from the multiply-constrained model are as follows (with all values applying over 1990-2011 and all ranges denoting ±1 standard error): (1) on the Australian continent, a predominantly semi-arid region, over half (0.64±0.05) of the water loss through ET occurs through soil evaporation and bypasses plants entirely; (2) mean Australian NPP is 2200±400 TgC/y, making the NPP/precipitation ratio about the same for Australia as the global land average; (3) annually cyclic ("grassy") vegetation and persistent ("woody") vegetation respectively account for 0.56±0.14 and 0.43±0.14 of NPP across Australia; (4) the average interannual variability of Australia's NEP (±180 TgC/y) is larger than Australia's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (149 TgCeq/y), and is dominated by variability in desert and savannah regions. The mean carbon budget over 1990

  20. Trailblazing the Carbon Cycle of Tropical Forests from Puerto Rico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Brown

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We review the literature that led to clarifying the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle from a time when they were considered sources of atmospheric carbon to the time when they were found to be atmospheric carbon sinks. This literature originates from work conducted by US Forest Service scientists in Puerto Rico and their collaborators. It involves the classification of forests by life zones, estimation of carbon density by forest type, assessing carbon storage changes with ecological succession and land use/land cover type, describing the details of the carbon cycle of forests at stand and landscape levels, assessing global land cover by forest type and the complexity of land use change in tropical regions, and assessing the ecological fluxes and storages that contribute to net carbon accumulation in tropical forests. We also review recent work that couples field inventory data, remote sensing technology such as LIDAR, and GIS analysis in order to more accurately determine the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle and point out new avenues of carbon research that address the responses of tropical forests to environmental change.

  1. Ectomycorrhizal fungi slow soil carbon cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averill, Colin; Hawkes, Christine V

    2016-08-01

    Respiration of soil organic carbon is one of the largest fluxes of CO2 on earth. Understanding the processes that regulate soil respiration is critical for predicting future climate. Recent work has suggested that soil carbon respiration may be reduced by competition for nitrogen between symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi that associate with plant roots and free-living microbial decomposers, which is consistent with increased soil carbon storage in ectomycorrhizal ecosystems globally. However, experimental tests of the mycorrhizal competition hypothesis are lacking. Here we show that ectomycorrhizal roots and hyphae decrease soil carbon respiration rates by up to 67% under field conditions in two separate field exclusion experiments, and this likely occurs via competition for soil nitrogen, an effect larger than 2 °C soil warming. These findings support mycorrhizal competition for nitrogen as an independent driver of soil carbon balance and demonstrate the need to understand microbial community interactions to predict ecosystem feedbacks to global climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. The LifeCycle model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krink, Thiemo; Løvbjerg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    genetic algorithms (GAs), particle swarm optimisation (PSOs), and stochastic hill climbing to create a generally well-performing search heuristics. In the LifeCycle model, we consider candidate solutions and their fitness as individuals, which, based on their recent search progress, can decide to become...... either a GA individual, a particle of a PSO, or a single stochastic hill climber. First results from a comparison of our new approach with the single search algorithms indicate a generally good performance in numerical optimization....

  3. The biomass burning contribution to climate–carbon-cycle feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Harrison

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Temperature exerts strong controls on the incidence and severity of fire. All else equal, warming is expected to increase fire-related carbon emissions, and thereby atmospheric CO2. But the magnitude of this feedback is very poorly known. We use a single-box model of the land biosphere to quantify this positive feedback from satellite-based estimates of biomass burning emissions for 2000–2014 CE and from sedimentary charcoal records for the millennium before the industrial period. We derive an estimate of the centennial-scale feedback strength of 6.5 ± 3.4 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature increase, based on the satellite data. However, this estimate is poorly constrained, and is largely driven by the well-documented dependence of tropical deforestation and peat fires (primarily anthropogenic on climate variability patterns linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Palaeo-data from pre-industrial times provide the opportunity to assess the fire-related climate–carbon-cycle feedback over a longer period, with less pervasive human impacts. Past biomass burning can be quantified based on variations in either the concentration and isotopic composition of methane in ice cores (with assumptions about the isotopic signatures of different methane sources or the abundances of charcoal preserved in sediments, which reflect landscape-scale changes in burnt biomass. These two data sources are shown here to be coherent with one another. The more numerous data from sedimentary charcoal, expressed as normalized anomalies (fractional deviations from the long-term mean, are then used – together with an estimate of mean biomass burning derived from methane isotope data – to infer a feedback strength of 5.6 ± 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature and (for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05. This finding indicates that the positive carbon cycle feedback from increased fire provides a substantial

  4. Drivers of the Seasonal Carbon Cycle in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilcher, D.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Hermann, A. J.; Coyle, K. O.; Mathis, J. T.

    2016-02-01

    The Coastal Gulf of Alaska serves as a significant carbon sink annually, but varies seasonally from net carbon efflux in winter, to net carbon uptake from spring through fall. This significant uptake of anthropogenic CO2 combined with the naturally cold, low calcium carbonate surface waters is expected to accelerate ocean acidification. Observational evidence has already detected subsurface aragonite undersaturation, likely resulting from carbon remineralization of sinking organic matter. Other processes such as storm-induced vertical mixing, glacial runoff, temperature change, and nutrient supply can further modify the carbon cycle. Improving knowledge of these seasonal processes is critical for the region's fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services and can be adversely impacted by sub-optimal aragonite saturation conditions. We use a regional model of the Coastal Gulf of Alaska coupled to an ecosystem model with full carbonate chemistry to investigate the physical and biogeochemical mechanisms that drive the seasonal carbon cycle. Boundary conditions are set from the coarser Northeast Pacific model, with alkalinity and carbon concentrations determined from empirical relationships with salinity. Model output from a 2009 hindcast simulation is compared to observations of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations for model verification and to elucidate seasonal mechanisms.

  5. Role of the seasonal cycle in coupling climate and carbon cycling in subanartic zone

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Monteiro, PMS

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing evidence in the Southern Ocean that mesoscales and seasonal scales play an important role in the coupling of ocean carbon cycling and climate. The seasonal cycle is one of the strongest modes of variability in different...

  6. State of the Carbon Cycle of North America: Overarching Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Birdsey, R.

    2016-12-01

    This presentation will provide an overarching summary of the second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR2) from the perspective of the five editorial lead authors. The chapters of SOCCR2 represent a major update and much new material since the original report published a decade ago. The new report includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and anthropogenic drivers, and implications for carbon management. The chapters focus on advances since the 2007 report, but also include new focus areas such as soil carbon, tribal lands, as well as greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane and the role of nitrogen will be considered to a greater extent than before. Each chapter also contains a section focusing on national and regional accounting to complement the overarching North American framework. In conclusion, SOCCR2 is expected to provide an updated assessment and a unique perspective on the carbon cycle, which will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment.

  7. Contribution of fish to the marine inorganic carbon cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R W; Millero, F J; Taylor, J R; Walsh, P J; Christensen, V; Jennings, S; Grosell, M

    2009-01-16

    Oceanic production of calcium carbonate is conventionally attributed to marine plankton (coccolithophores and foraminifera). Here we report that marine fish produce precipitated carbonates within their intestines and excrete these at high rates. When combined with estimates of global fish biomass, this suggests that marine fish contribute 3 to 15% of total oceanic carbonate production. Fish carbonates have a higher magnesium content and solubility than traditional sources, yielding faster dissolution with depth. This may explain up to a quarter of the increase in titratable alkalinity within 1000 meters of the ocean surface, a controversial phenomenon that has puzzled oceanographers for decades. We also predict that fish carbonate production may rise in response to future environmental changes in carbon dioxide, and thus become an increasingly important component of the inorganic carbon cycle.

  8. Carbon Cycling in Wetland Forest Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl C. Trettin; Martin F. Jurgensen

    2003-01-01

    Wetlands comprise a small proportion (i.e., 2 to 3%) of earth's terrestrial surface, yet they contain a significant proportion of the terrestrial carbon (C) pool. Soils comprise the largest terrestrial C pool (ca. 1550 Pg C in upper 100 cm; Eswaran et al., 1993; Batjes, 1996), and wetlands contain the single largest component, with estimates ranging between 18...

  9. Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Robert E. Kennedy; Andrew N. Gray; Zhiqiang Yang

    2016-01-01

    Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state...

  10. The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

    2017-12-01

    , atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. SOCCR-2 highlights key data gaps in carbon accounting frameworks, uncertainties in modeling and estimation approaches, and integrated frameworks for improving our understanding of the North American carbon cycle.

  11. Integrating Natural Gas Hydrates in the Global Carbon Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Archer; Bruce Buffett

    2011-12-31

    We produced a two-dimensional geological time- and basin-scale model of the sedimentary margin in passive and active settings, for the simulation of the deep sedimentary methane cycle including hydrate formation. Simulation of geochemical data required development of parameterizations for bubble transport in the sediment column, and for the impact of the heterogeneity in the sediment pore fluid flow field, which represent new directions in modeling methane hydrates. The model is somewhat less sensitive to changes in ocean temperature than our previous 1-D model, due to the different methane transport mechanisms in the two codes (pore fluid flow vs. bubble migration). The model is very sensitive to reasonable changes in organic carbon deposition through geologic time, and to details of how the bubbles migrate, in particular how efficiently they are trapped as they rise through undersaturated or oxidizing chemical conditions and the hydrate stability zone. The active margin configuration reproduces the elevated hydrate saturations observed in accretionary wedges such as the Cascadia Margin, but predicts a decrease in the methane inventory per meter of coastline relative to a comparable passive margin case, and a decrease in the hydrate inventory with an increase in the plate subduction rate.

  12. [Roles of soil dissolved organic carbon in carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ling; Qiu, Shao-Jun; Liu, Jing-Tao; Liu, Qing; Lu, Zhao-Hua

    2012-05-01

    Soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an active fraction of soil organic carbon pool, playing an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. In view of the importance of the carbon cycling, this paper summarized the roles of soil DOC in the soil carbon sequestration and greenhouse gases emission, and in considering of our present ecological and environmental problems such as soil acidification and climate warming, discussed the effects of soil properties, environmental factors, and human activities on the soil DOC as well as the response mechanisms of the DOC. This review could be helpful to the further understanding of the importance of soil DOC in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems and the reduction of greenhouse gases emission.

  13. Carbon cycling and gas exchange in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trumbore, S.E.

    1989-01-01

    This thesis summaries three independent projects, each of which describes a method which can be used to study the role of soils in regulating the atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other trace gases. The first chapter uses the distribution of natural and bomb produced radiocarbon in fractionated soil organic matter to quantify the turnover of carbon in soils. A comparison of 137 Cs and 14 C in the modern soil profiles indicates that carbon is transported vertically in the soil as dissolved organic material. The remainder of the work reported is concerned with the use of inert trace gases to explore the physical factors which control the seasonal to diel variability in the fluxes of CO 2 and other trace gases from soils. Chapter 2 introduces a method for measuring soil gas exchange rates in situ using sulfur hexafluoride as a purposeful tracer. The measurement method uses standard flux box technology, and includes simultaneous determination of the fluxes and soil atmosphere concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Chapter 3, the natural tracer 222 Rn is used as an inert analog for exchange both in the soils and forest canopy of the Amazon rain forest

  14. The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle : Global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools, and residence times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloom, A Anthony; Exbrayat, Jean-François; van der Velde, Ivar R; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

    2016-01-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle

  15. Linking water and carbon cycles through salinity observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X.; Liu, W. T.

    2017-12-01

    The association of ocean surface salinity in global hydrological cycle and climate change has been traditionally studied through the examination of its tendency and advection as manifestation of ocean's heat and water fluxes with the atmosphere. The variability of surface heat and water fluxes are linked to top of atmosphere radiation, whose imbalance is the main cause of global warming. Besides the link of salinity to greenhouse warming through water balance, this study will focus on the effect of changing salinity on carbon dioxide flux between the ocean and the atmosphere. We have built statistical models to estimate the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and ocean acidification (in terms of total alkalinity and pH) using spacebased data. PCO2 is a critical parameter governing ocean as source and sink of the accumulated greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The exchange also causes ocean acidification, which is detrimental to marine lives and ecology. Before we had sufficient spacebased salinity measurements coincident with in situ pCO2 measurement, we trained our statistical models to use satellite sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, with one model using salinity climatology and the other without. We found significant differences between the two models in regions of strong water input through river discharge and surface water flux. The pCO2 output follows the seasonal salinity advection of the Amazon outflow. The seasonal salinity advection between Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are followed by change of pCO2 and total alkalinity. At shorter time scales, the signatures of rain associated with intraseasonal organized convection of summer monsoon can be detected. We have observed distribution agreement of among pCO2, surface salinity, and surface water flux for variation from a few days to a few years under the Pacific ITCZ; the agreement varies slightly with season and longitudes and the reason is under study.

  16. Sink- or Source-driven Phanerozoic carbon cycle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godderis, Y.; Donnadieu, Y.; Maffre, P.; Carretier, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Phanerozoic evolution of the atmospheric CO2 level is controlled by the fluxes entering or leaving the exospheric system. Those fluxes (including continental weathering, magmatic degassing, organic carbon burial, oxidation of sedimentary organic carbon) are intertwined, and their relative importance in driving the global carbon cycle evolution may have fluctuated through time. Deciphering the causes of the Phanerozoic climate evolution thus requires a holistic and quantitative approach. Here we focus on the role played by the paleogeographic configuration on the efficiency of the CO2 sink by continental silicate weathering, and on the impact of the magmatic degassing of CO2. We use the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to compute the response of the silicate weathering and atmospheric CO2 to continental drift for 22 time slices of the Phanerozoic. Regarding the CO2 released by the magmatic activity, we reconstruct several Phanerozoic histories of this flux, based on published indexes. We calculate the CO2 evolution for each degassing scenario, and accounting for the paleogeographic setting. We show that the paleogeographic setting is a main driver of the climate from 540 Ma to about the beginning of the Jurassic. Regarding the role of the magmatic degassing, the various reconstructions do not converge towards a single signal, and thus introduce large uncertainties in the calculated CO2 level over time. Nevertheless, the continental dispersion, which prevails since the Jurassic, promotes the CO2 consumption by weathering and forces atmospheric CO2 to stay low. Warm climates of the "middle" Cretaceous and early Cenozoic require enhanced CO2 degassing by magmatic activity. In summary, the Phanerozoic climate evolution can be hardly assigned to a single process, but is the result of complex and intertwined processes.

  17. The Global Carbon Cycle: It's a Small World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineson, Philip; Milcu, Alexander; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wildman, Dennis; Anderson, Robert; Manning, Peter; Heinemeyer, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Predicting future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), together with the impacts of these changes on global climate, are some of the most urgent and important challenges facing mankind. Modelling is the only way in which such predictions can be made, leading to the current generation of increasingly complex computer simulations, with associated concerns about embedded assumptions and conflicting model outputs. Alongside analysis of past climates, the GCMs currently represent our only hope of establishing the importance of potential runaway positive feedbacks linking climate change and atmospheric greenhouse gases yet the incorporation of necessary biospheric responses into GCMs markedly increases the uncertainty of predictions. Analysis of the importance of the major components of the global carbon (C) cycle reveals that an understanding of the conditions under which the terrestrial biosphere could switch from an overall carbon (C) sink to a source is critical to our ability to make future climate predictions. Here we present an alternative approach to assessing the short term biotic (plant and soil) sensitivities to elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 through the use of a purely physical analogue. Centred on the concept of materially-closed systems containing scaled-down ratios of the global C stocks for the atmosphere, vegetation and soil we show that, in these model systems, the terrestrial biosphere is able to buffer a rise of 3oC even when coupled to very strong CO2-temperature positive feedbacks. The system respiratory response appears to be extremely well linked to temperature and is critical in deciding atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Simulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the model systems showed an initial corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2 but, somewhat surprisingly, CO2 concentrations levelled off at ca. 480 p.p.m.v., despite continuing additions of CO2. Experiments were performed in which reversion of atmospheric

  18. The Carbon Cycle: Teaching Youth about Natural Resource Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, William A.

    2015-01-01

    The carbon cycle was used as a conceptual construct for organizing the curriculum for a youth summer camp on natural resource use and sustainability. Several studies have indicated the importance of non-traditional youth education settings for science education and understanding responsible natural resource use. The Sixth Grade Forestry Tour, a…

  19. A Carbon Cycle Science Update Since IPCC AR-4

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Werf, van der G.R.; Molen, van der M.K.; Ganssen, G.; Erisman, J.W.; Strengers, B.

    2010-01-01

    We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are

  20. Carbon cycle changes during the Triassic-Jurassic transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruhl, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838357

    2010-01-01

    The end-Triassic is regarded as one of the five major mass extinction events of the Phanerozoic. This time interval is marked by up to 50% of marine biodiversity loss and major changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Mass extinction events are often marked by changes in the global carbon cycle. The

  1. Autonomous observing strategies for the ocean carbon cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bishop, James K.; Davis, Russ E.

    2000-07-26

    Understanding the exchanges of carbon between the atmosphere and ocean and the fate of carbon delivered to the deep sea is fundamental to the evaluation of ocean carbon sequestration options. An additional key requirement is that sequestration must be verifiable and that environmental effects be monitored and minimized. These needs can be addressed by carbon system observations made from low-cost autonomous ocean-profiling floats and gliders. We have developed a prototype ocean carbon system profiler based on the Sounding Oceanographic Lagrangian Observer (SOLO; Davis et al., 1999). The SOLO/ carbon profiler will measure the two biomass components of the carbon system and their relationship to physical variables, such as upper ocean stratification and mixing. The autonomous observations within the upper 1500 m will be made on daily time scales for periods of months to seasons and will be carried out in biologically dynamic locations in the world's oceans that are difficult to access with ships (due to weather) or observe using remote sensing satellites (due to cloud cover). Such an observational capability not only will serve an important role in carbon sequestration research but will provide key observations of the global ocean's natural carbon cycle.

  2. Urbanization and the Carbon Cycle: Synthesis of Ongoing Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, K. R.; Duren, R. M.; Hutyra, L.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Patarasuk, R.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Davis, K.; Kort, E. A.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Lauvaux, T.; Rao, P.; Eldering, A.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S.; McKain, K.; Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Cambaliza, M. O. L.

    2015-12-01

    Given the explosive growth in urbanization and its dominant role in current and future global greenhouse gas emissions, urban areas have received increasing research attention from the carbon cycle science community. The emerging focus is driven by the increasingly dense atmospheric observing capabilities - ground and space-based - in addition to the rising profile of cities within international climate change policymaking. Dominated by anthropogenic emissions, urban carbon cycle research requires a cross-disciplinary perspective with contributions from disciplines such as engineering, economics, social theory, and atmospheric science. We review the recent results from a sample of the active urban carbon research efforts including the INFLUX experiment (Indianapolis), the Megacity carbon project (Los Angeles), Salt Lake City, and Boston. Each of these efforts represent unique approaches in pursuit of different scientific and policy questions and assist in setting priorities for future research. From top-down atmospheric measurement systems to bottom-up estimation, these research efforts offer a view of the challenges and opportunities in urban carbon cycle research.

  3. Nutrient cycle benchmarks for earth system land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.; Zhao, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting future biosphere-climate feedbacks using Earth system models (ESMs) relies heavily on robust modeling of land surface carbon dynamics. More importantly, soil nutrient (particularly, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) dynamics strongly modulate carbon dynamics, such as plant sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Prevailing ESM land models all consider nitrogen as a potentially limiting nutrient, and several consider phosphorus. However, including nutrient cycle processes in ESM land models potentially introduces large uncertainties that could be identified and addressed by improved observational constraints. We describe the development of two nutrient cycle benchmarks for ESM land models: (1) nutrient partitioning between plants and soil microbes inferred from 15N and 33P tracers studies and (2) nutrient limitation effects on carbon cycle informed by long-term fertilization experiments. We used these benchmarks to evaluate critical hypotheses regarding nutrient cycling and their representation in ESMs. We found that a mechanistic representation of plant-microbe nutrient competition based on relevant functional traits best reproduced observed plant-microbe nutrient partitioning. We also found that for multiple-nutrient models (i.e., N and P), application of Liebig's law of the minimum is often inaccurate. Rather, the Multiple Nutrient Limitation (MNL) concept better reproduces observed carbon-nutrient interactions.

  4. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Baldocchi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing literature is reporting on how the terrestrial carbon cycle is experiencing year-to-year variability because of climate anomalies and trends caused by global change. As CO2 concentration records in the atmosphere exceed 50 years and as satellite records reach over 30 years in length, we are becoming better able to address carbon cycle variability and trends. Here we review how variable the carbon cycle is, how large the trends in its gross and net fluxes are, and how well the signal can be separated from noise. We explore mechanisms that explain year-to-year variability and trends by deconstructing the global carbon budget. The CO2 concentration record is detecting a significant increase in the seasonal amplitude between 1958 and now. Inferential methods provide a variety of explanations for this result, but a conclusive attribution remains elusive. Scientists have reported that this trend is a consequence of the greening of the biosphere, stronger northern latitude photosynthesis, more photosynthesis by semi-arid ecosystems, agriculture and the green revolution, tropical temperature anomalies, or increased winter respiration. At the global scale, variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle can be due to changes in constituent fluxes, gross primary productivity, plant respiration and heterotrophic (microbial respiration, and losses due to fire, land use change, soil erosion, or harvesting. It remains controversial whether or not there is a significant trend in global primary productivity (due to rising CO2, temperature, nitrogen deposition, changing land use, and preponderance of wet and dry regions. The degree to which year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation anomalies affect global primary productivity also remains uncertain. For perspective, interannual variability in global gross primary productivity is relatively small (on the order of 2 Pg-C y-1 with respect to a large and uncertain background (123 +/- 4 Pg-C y-1

  5. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1987-12-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

  6. Evaluation and Optimization of a Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Conversion Cycle for Nuclear Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvego, Edwin A.; McKellar, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    There have been a number of studies involving the use of gases operating in the supercritical mode for power production and process heat applications. Supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) is particularly attractive because it is capable of achieving relatively high power conversion cycle efficiencies in the temperature range between 550 C and 750 C. Therefore, it has the potential for use with any type of high-temperature nuclear reactor concept, assuming reactor core outlet temperatures of at least 550 C. The particular power cycle investigated in this paper is a supercritical CO2 Recompression Brayton Cycle. The CO2 Recompression Brayton Cycle can be used as either a direct or indirect power conversion cycle, depending on the reactor type and reactor outlet temperature. The advantage of this cycle when compared to the helium Brayton Cycle is the lower required operating temperature; 550 C versus 850 C. However, the supercritical CO2 Recompression Brayton Cycle requires an operating pressure in the range of 20 MPa, which is considerably higher than the required helium Brayton cycle operating pressure of 8 MPa. This paper presents results of analyses performed using the UniSim process analyses software to evaluate the performance of the supercritical CO2 Brayton Recompression Cycle for different reactor outlet temperatures. The UniSim model assumed a 600 MWt reactor power source, which provides heat to the power cycle at a maximum temperature of between 550 C and 750 C. The UniSim model used realistic component parameters and operating conditions to model the complete power conversion system. CO2 properties were evaluated, and the operating range for the cycle was adjusted to take advantage of the rapidly changing conditions near the critical point. The UniSim model was then optimized to maximize the power cycle thermal efficiency at the different maximum power cycle operating temperatures. The results of the analyses showed that power cycle thermal efficiencies in

  7. Carbon Cycle Extremes in the 22nd and 23rd Century and Attribution to Climate Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves which have a potential to modify carbon budgets. Previous studies have found the impact of negative extremes in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) to be diminishing towards the end of the 21st century relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake. A few studies have estimated that the land use changes (e.g. from forest to croplands) would cause more cumulative carbon loss between 1850 and 2300 than due to climate change caused by anthropogenic forcing over the same interval. However, not many studies have looked at the impact of carbon cycle extremes beyond 21st century especially under with and without LULCC scenarios. This study aims to analyze spatiotemporal extreme events in GPP and NEP using the model CESM1-BGC and understand the climate drivers they can be attributed to. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC), we investigated the impact of climate extremes on the terrestrial ecosystem using simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 with and without land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). To capture non-linear feedbacks in the global carbon cycle, both these simulations were extended to the year 2300. It is important to understand the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle for quantifying carbon-cycle climate feedback and estimating future atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature increases. The results of this study would help improve our understanding of carbon cycle extremes and inform future mitigation policy.

  8. Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohara, Daisuke; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Ohba, Masamichi

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO 2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO 2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO 2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. (letter)

  9. Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2008-08-01

    There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

  10. Hidden cycle of dissolved organic carbon in the deep ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follett, Christopher L; Repeta, Daniel J; Rothman, Daniel H; Xu, Li; Santinelli, Chiara

    2014-11-25

    Marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a large (660 Pg C) reactive carbon reservoir that mediates the oceanic microbial food web and interacts with climate on both short and long timescales. Carbon isotopic content provides information on the DOC source via δ(13)C and age via Δ(14)C. Bulk isotope measurements suggest a microbially sourced DOC reservoir with two distinct components of differing radiocarbon age. However, such measurements cannot determine internal dynamics and fluxes. Here we analyze serial oxidation experiments to quantify the isotopic diversity of DOC at an oligotrophic site in the central Pacific Ocean. Our results show diversity in both stable and radio isotopes at all depths, confirming DOC cycling hidden within bulk analyses. We confirm the presence of isotopically enriched, modern DOC cocycling with an isotopically depleted older fraction in the upper ocean. However, our results show that up to 30% of the deep DOC reservoir is modern and supported by a 1 Pg/y carbon flux, which is 10 times higher than inferred from bulk isotope measurements. Isotopically depleted material turns over at an apparent time scale of 30,000 y, which is far slower than indicated by bulk isotope measurements. These results are consistent with global DOC measurements and explain both the fluctuations in deep DOC concentration and the anomalous radiocarbon values of DOC in the Southern Ocean. Collectively these results provide an unprecedented view of the ways in which DOC moves through the marine carbon cycle.

  11. On the linkages between the global carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa; Mackenzie, Fred; Bouchez, Julien; Knutti, Reto

    2013-04-01

    State-of-the-art earth system models used for long-term climate projections are becoming ever more complex in terms of not only spatial resolution but also the number of processes. Biogeochemical processes are beginning to be incorporated into these models. The motivation of this study is to quantify how climate projections are influenced by biogeochemical feedbacks. In the climate modeling community, it is virtually accepted that climate-Carbon (C) cycle feedbacks accelerate the future warming (Cox et al. 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2006). It has been demonstrated that the Nitrogen (N) cycle suppresses climate-C cycle feedbacks (Thornton et al. 2009). On the contrary, biogeochemical studies show that the coupled C-N-Phosphorus (P) cycles are intimately interlinked via biosphere and the N-P cycles amplify C cycle feedbacks (Ver et al. 1999). The question as to whether the N-P cycles enhance or attenuate C cycle feedbacks is debated and has a significant implication for projections of future climate. We delve into this problem by using the Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model 3 (TOTEM3), a globally-aggregated C-N-P cycle box model. TOTEM3 is a process-based model that describes the biogeochemical reactions and physical transports involving these elements in the four domains of the Earth system: land, atmosphere, coastal ocean, and open ocean. TOTEM3 is a successor of earlier TOTEM models (Ver et al. 1999; Mackenzie et al. 2011). In our presentation, we provide an overview of fundamental features and behaviors of TOTEM3 such as the mass balance at the steady state and the relaxation time scales to various types of perturbation. We also show preliminary results to investigate how the N-P cycles influence the behavior of the C cycle. References Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh

  12. Modeling seasonal changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon 13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillette, D.A.; Box, E.O.

    1986-01-01

    A two-dimensional (latitude-altitude) model of atmospheric CO 2 and δ 13 C was constructed to simulate some features of seasonal carbon cycle fluctuations. The model simulates air-sea exchange, atmospheric diffusion, and fossil fuel carbon sources, which are functions of time and latitude. In addition, it uses biosphere-atmosphere fluxes of carbon that are based on global-scale biological models of vegetation growth and decay. Results of the model show fair agreement with observational results for CO 2 and δ 13 C seasonal fluctuations. Their model results have far northern fluctuations with smaller amplitudes than are observed. Analysis of sources of CO 2 change at given latitudes shows that, for far southern latitudes, southern hemisphere biospheric fluxes are dominant in affecting the seasonal CO 2 fluctuations. Long-term decrease of δ 13 C for the model is larger than for observations. This may be due to errors in the formulation for oceanic fluxes for 13 C in the model or to a net uptake of carbon by the biosphere

  13. Microbial Enzyme Activity and Carbon Cycling in Grassland Soil Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, S. D.; Jastrow, J. D.

    2004-12-01

    Extracellular enzymes are necessary to degrade complex organic compounds present in soils. Using physical fractionation procedures, we tested whether old soil carbon is spatially isolated from degradative enzymes across a prairie restoration chronosequence in Illinois, USA. We found that carbon-degrading enzymes were abundant in all soil fractions, including macroaggregates, microaggregates, and the clay fraction, which contains carbon with a mean residence time of ~200 years. The activities of two cellulose-degrading enzymes and a chitin-degrading enzyme were 2-10 times greater in organic matter fractions than in bulk soil, consistent with the rapid turnover of these fractions. Polyphenol oxidase activity was 3 times greater in the clay fraction than in the bulk soil, despite very slow carbon turnover in this fraction. Changes in enzyme activity across the restoration chronosequence were small once adjusted for increases in soil carbon concentration, although polyphenol oxidase activity per unit carbon declined by 50% in native prairie versus cultivated soil. These results are consistent with a `two-pool' model of enzyme and carbon turnover in grassland soils. In light organic matter fractions, enzyme production and carbon turnover both occur rapidly. However, in mineral-dominated fractions, both enzymes and their carbon substrates are immobilized on mineral surfaces, leading to slow turnover. Soil carbon accumulation in the clay fraction and across the prairie restoration chronosequence probably reflects increasing physical isolation of enzymes and substrates on the molecular scale, rather than the micron to millimeter scale.

  14. Evaluation of Site and Continental Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Simulations with North American Flux Tower Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raczka, B. M.; Davis, K. J.; Regional-Interim Synthesis Participants, N.; Site Level Interim Synthesis, N.; Regional/Continental Interim Synthesis Team

    2010-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon models are widely used to diagnose past ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux responses to climate variability, and are a critical component of coupled climate-carbon model used to predict global climate change. The North American Carbon Program (NACP) Interim Regional and Site Interim Synthesis activities collected a broad sampling of terrestrial carbon model results run at both regional and site level. The Regional Interim Synthesis Activity aims to determine our current knowledge of the carbon balance of North America by comparing the flux estimates provided by the various terrestrial carbon cycle models. Moving beyond model-model comparison is challenging, however, because no continental-scale reference values exist to validate modeled fluxes. This paper presents an effort to evaluate the continental-scale flux estimates of these models using North American flux tower observations brought together by the Site Interim Synthesis Activity. Flux towers present a standard for evaluation of the modeled fluxes, though this evaluation is challenging because of the mismatch in spatial scales between the spatial resolution of continental-scale model runs and the size of a flux tower footprint. We compare model performance with flux tower observations at monthly and annual integrals using the statistical criteria of normalized standard deviation, correlation coefficient, centered root mean square deviation and chi-squared. Models are evaluated individually and according to common model characteristics including spatial resolution, photosynthesis, soil carbon decomposition and phenology. In general all regional models are positively biased for GPP, Re and NEE at both annual and monthly time scales. Further analysis links this result to a positive bias in many solar radiation reanalyses. Positively biased carbon fluxes are also observed for enzyme-kinetic models and models using no nitrogen limitation for soil carbon decomposition. While the former result is

  15. Modelling carbon emissions in electric systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, E.T.; Yang, Q.; Forbes, A.B.; Wright, P.; Livina, V.N.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We model carbon emissions in electric systems. • We estimate emissions in generated and consumed energy with UK carbon factors. • We model demand profiles with novel function based on hyperbolic tangents. • We study datasets of UK Elexon database, Brunel PV system and Irish SmartGrid. • We apply Ensemble Kalman Filter to forecast energy data in these case studies. - Abstract: We model energy consumption of network electricity and compute Carbon emissions (CE) based on obtained energy data. We review various models of electricity consumption and propose an adaptive seasonal model based on the Hyperbolic tangent function (HTF). We incorporate HTF to define seasonal and daily trends of electricity demand. We then build a stochastic model that combines the trends and white noise component and the resulting simulations are estimated using Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which provides ensemble simulations of groups of electricity consumers; similarly, we estimate carbon emissions from electricity generators. Three case studies of electricity generation and consumption are modelled: Brunel University photovoltaic generation data, Elexon national electricity generation data (various fuel types) and Irish smart grid data, with ensemble estimations by EnKF and computation of carbon emissions. We show the flexibility of HTF-based functions for modelling realistic cycles of energy consumption, the efficiency of EnKF in ensemble estimation of energy consumption and generation, and report the obtained estimates of the carbon emissions in the considered case studies

  16. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  17. Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

  18. Quantification of net carbon flux from plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation: A full carbon cycle analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan; Xu Hao; Wu Xu; Zhu Yimei; Gu Baojing; Niu Xiaoyin; Liu Anqin; Peng Changhui; Ge Ying; Chang Jie

    2011-01-01

    Plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation (PGVC) has played a vital role in increasing incomes of farmers and expanded dramatically in last several decades. However, carbon budget after conversion from conventional vegetable cultivation (CVC) to PGVC has been poorly quantified. A full carbon cycle analysis was used to estimate the net carbon flux from PGVC systems based on the combination of data from both field observations and literatures. Carbon fixation was evaluated at two pre-selected locations in China. Results suggest that: (1) the carbon sink of PGVC is 1.21 and 1.23 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 for temperate and subtropical area, respectively; (2) the conversion from CVC to PGVC could substantially enhance carbon sink potential by 8.6 times in the temperate area and by 1.3 times in the subtropical area; (3) the expansion of PGVC usage could enhance the potential carbon sink of arable land in China overall. - Highlights: → We used full carbon (C) cycle analysis to estimate the net C flux from cultivation. → The plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation system in China can act as a C sink. → Intensified agricultural practices can generate C sinks. → Expansion of plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation can enhance regional C sink. - The conversion from conventional vegetable cultivation to plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation could substantially enhance carbon sink potential by 8.6 and 1.3 times for temperate and subtropical area, respectively.

  19. Double polymer sheathed carbon nanotube supercapacitors show enhanced cycling stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenqi; Wang, Shanshan; Wang, Chunhui; Wu, Shiting; Xu, Wenjing; Zou, Mingchu; Ouyang, An; Cao, Anyuan; Li, Yibin

    2015-12-01

    Pseudo-materials are effective in boosting the specific capacitance of supercapacitors, but during service their degradation may also be very strong, causing reduced cycling stability. Here, we show that a carbon nanotube sponge grafted by two conventional pseudo-polymer layers in sequence can serve as a porous supercapacitor electrode with significantly enhanced cycling stability compared with single polymer grafting. Creating conformal polymer coatings on the nanotube surface and the resulting double-sheath configuration are important structural factors leading to the enhanced performance. Combining different polymers as double sheaths as reported here might be a potential route to circumvent the dilemma of pseudo-materials, and to simultaneously improve the capacitance and stability for various energy storage devices.Pseudo-materials are effective in boosting the specific capacitance of supercapacitors, but during service their degradation may also be very strong, causing reduced cycling stability. Here, we show that a carbon nanotube sponge grafted by two conventional pseudo-polymer layers in sequence can serve as a porous supercapacitor electrode with significantly enhanced cycling stability compared with single polymer grafting. Creating conformal polymer coatings on the nanotube surface and the resulting double-sheath configuration are important structural factors leading to the enhanced performance. Combining different polymers as double sheaths as reported here might be a potential route to circumvent the dilemma of pseudo-materials, and to simultaneously improve the capacitance and stability for various energy storage devices. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr05978j

  20. Carbon footprint evaluation at industrial park level: A hybrid life cycle assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Huijuan; Geng, Yong; Xi, Fengming; Fujita, Tsuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    Industrial parks have become the effective strategies for government to promote sustainable economic development due to the following advantages: shared infrastructure and concentrated industrial activities within planned areas. However, due to intensive energy consumption and dependence on fossil fuels, industrial parks have become the main areas for greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is critical to quantify their carbon footprints so that appropriate emission reduction policies can be raised. The objective of this paper is to seek an appropriate method on evaluating the carbon footprint of one industrial park. The tiered hybrid LCA method was selected due to its advantages over other methods. Shenyang Economic and Technological Development Zone (SETDZ), a typical comprehensive industrial park in China, was chosen as a case study park. The results show that the total life cycle carbon footprint of SETDZ was 15.29 Mt, including 6.81 Mt onsite (direct) carbon footprint, 8.47 Mt upstream carbon footprint, and only 3201 t downstream carbon footprint. Analysis from industrial sector perspectives shows that chemical industry and manufacture of general purpose machinery and special purposes machinery sector were the two largest sectors for life cycle carbon footprint. Such a sector analysis may be useful for investigation of appropriate emission reduction policies. - Highlights: ► A hybrid LCA model was employed to calculate industrial park carbon footprint. ► A case study on SETDZ is done. ► Life cycle carbon footprint of SETDZ is 15.29 Mt. ► Upstream and onsite carbon footprints account for 55.40% and 44.57%, respectively. ► Chemical industry and machinery manufacturing sectors are the two largest sectors

  1. Belowground Carbon Cycling Processes at the Molecular Scale: An EMSL Science Theme Advisory Panel Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hess, Nancy J.; Brown, Gordon E.; Plata, Charity

    2014-02-21

    As part of the Belowground Carbon Cycling Processes at the Molecular Scale workshop, an EMSL Science Theme Advisory Panel meeting held in February 2013, attendees discussed critical biogeochemical processes that regulate carbon cycling in soil. The meeting attendees determined that as a national scientific user facility, EMSL can provide the tools and expertise needed to elucidate the molecular foundation that underlies mechanistic descriptions of biogeochemical processes that control carbon allocation and fluxes at the terrestrial/atmospheric interface in landscape and regional climate models. Consequently, the workshop's goal was to identify the science gaps that hinder either development of mechanistic description of critical processes or their accurate representation in climate models. In part, this report offers recommendations for future EMSL activities in this research area. The workshop was co-chaired by Dr. Nancy Hess (EMSL) and Dr. Gordon Brown (Stanford University).

  2. Evaluation of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle with the Land Use Harmonization Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, T.; Nemani, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    CO2 emission by land use and land use change (LULUC) has still had a large uncertainty (±50%). We need to more accurately reveal a role of each LULUC process on terrestrial carbon cycle, and to develop more complicated land cover change model, leading to improve our understanding of the mechanism of global warming. The existing biosphere model studies do not necessarily have enough major LULUC process in the model description (e.g., clear cutting and residual soil carbon). The issue has the potential for causing an underestimation of the effect of LULUC on the global carbon exchange. In this study, the terrestrial biosphere model was modified with several LULUC processes according to the land use harmonization data set. The global mean LULUC emission from the year 1850 to 2000 was 137.2 (PgC 151year-1), and we found the noticeable trend in tropical region. As with the case of primary production in the existing studies, our results emphasized the role of tropical forest on wood productization and residual soil organic carbon by cutting. Global mean NEP was decreased by LULUC. NEP is largely affected by decreasing leaf biomass (photosynthesis) by deforestation process and increasing plant growth rate by regrowth process. We suggested that the model description related to deforestation, residual soil decomposition, wood productization and plant regrowth is important to develop a biosphere model for estimating long-term global carbon cycle.

  3. Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios and implications for ecosystem function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen S. Findlay

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006: inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

  4. Current views on the regulation of autotrophic carbon dioxide fixation via the Calvin cycle in bacteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkhuizen, L.; Harder, W.

    1984-01-01

    The Calvin cycle of carbon dioxide fixation constitutes a biosynthetic pathway for the generation of (multi-carbon) intermediates of central metabolism from the one-carbon compound carbon dioxide. The product of this cycle can be used as a precursor for the synthesis of all components of cell

  5. Modeling the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, Jacob J.; Dunzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    A review of existing nuclear fuel cycle systems analysis codes was performed to determine if any existing codes meet technical and functional requirements defined for a U.S. national program supporting the global and domestic assessment, development and deployment of nuclear energy systems. The program would be implemented using an interconnected architecture of different codes ranging from the fuel cycle analysis code, which is the subject of the review, to fundamental physical and mechanistic codes. Four main functions are defined for the code: (1) the ability to characterize and deploy individual fuel cycle facilities and reactors in a simulation, while discretely tracking material movements, (2) the capability to perform an uncertainty analysis for each element of the fuel cycle and an aggregate uncertainty analysis, (3) the inclusion of an optimization engine able to optimize simultaneously across multiple objective functions, and (4) open and accessible code software and documentation to aid in collaboration between multiple entities and facilitate software updates. Existing codes, categorized as annualized or discrete fuel tracking codes, were assessed according to the four functions and associated requirements. These codes were developed by various government, education and industrial entities to fulfill particular needs. In some cases, decisions were made during code development to limit the level of detail included in a code to ease its use or to focus on certain aspects of a fuel cycle to address specific questions. The review revealed that while no two of the codes are identical, they all perform many of the same basic functions. No code was able to perform defined function 2 or several requirements of functions 1 and 3. Based on this review, it was concluded that the functions and requirements will be met only with development of a new code, referred to as GENIUS.

  6. Testing Urey's carbonate-silicate cycle using the calcium isotopic composition of sedimentary carbonates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blättler, Clara L.; Higgins, John A.

    2017-12-01

    Carbonate minerals constitute a major component of the sedimentary geological record and an archive of a fraction of the carbon and calcium cycled through the Earth's surface reservoirs for over three billion years. For calcium, carbonate minerals constitute the ultimate sink for almost all calcium liberated during continental and submarine weathering of silicate minerals. This study presents >500 stable isotope ratios of calcium in Precambrian carbonate sediments, both limestones and dolomites, in an attempt to characterize the isotope mass balance of the sedimentary carbonate reservoir through time. The mean of the dataset is indistinguishable from estimates of the calcium isotope ratio of bulk silicate Earth, consistent with the Urey cycle being the dominant mechanism exchanging calcium among surface reservoirs. The variability in bulk sediment calcium isotope ratios within each geological unit does not reflect changes in the global calcium cycle, but rather highlights the importance of local mineralogical and/or diagenetic effects in the carbonate record. This dataset demonstrates the potential for calcium isotope ratios to help assess these local effects, such as the former presence of aragonite, even in rocks with a history of neomorphism and recrystallization. Additionally, 29 calcium isotope measurements are presented from ODP (Ocean Drilling Program) Site 801 that contribute to the characterization of altered oceanic crust as an additional sink for calcium, and whose distinct isotopic signature places a limit on the importance of this subduction flux over Earth history.

  7. The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in

  8. The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Latto

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical–subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air–sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown

  9. The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important

  10. Cycling of beryllium and carbon through hillslope soils in Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, J.W.; Fries, T.L.; Pavich, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    Isotopes of Be and C were used to reconstruct loess accumulation, hillslope evolution, and agricultural modification in soils of western Iowa. While both elements are derived from additions by the atmosphere (via plants in the case of carbon), the differences in element cycling allow erosional and depositional processes to be separated from biochemical processing. Based on 10Be, loess accumulation likely occurred simultaneously with hillslope degradation. Rates of loess accumulation declined five-fold between early stages (late Pleistocene and early Holocene) and later stages (late Holocene) of accumulation, but the absolute timing of accumulation requires independent dating methods. Based on 14C measurements, plant inputs and decomposition are significant near the surface, but below 1-1.5 m carbon inputs are minimal and decomposition is nearly arrested. The amount of carbon below 1.5 m is constant (0.1%) and is composed of soil organic matter that was buried by loess. Agricultural modification results in a dramatic redistribution of 10Be through soil erosion and deposition. By contrast, the redistribution of soil organic matter is masked by the rapid cycling of C through the topsoil as it continually decomposes and is replaced by plant inputs.

  11. Microbial diversity and carbon cycling in San Francisco Bay wetlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theroux, Susanna [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Walnut Creek, CA (United States). Dept. of Energy Joint Genome Inst.; Hartman, Wyatt [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Walnut Creek, CA (United States). Dept. of Energy Joint Genome Inst.; He, Shaomei [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Walnut Creek, CA (United States). Dept. of Energy Joint Genome Inst.; Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Tringe, Susannah [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Walnut Creek, CA (United States). Dept. of Energy Joint Genome Inst.

    2014-03-21

    Wetland restoration efforts in San Francisco Bay aim to rebuild habitat for endangered species and provide an effective carbon storage solution, reversing land subsidence caused by a century of industrial and agricultural development. However, the benefits of carbon sequestration may be negated by increased methane production in newly constructed wetlands, making these wetlands net greenhouse gas (GHG) sources to the atmosphere. We investigated the effects of wetland restoration on below-ground microbial communities responsible for GHG cycling in a suite of historic and restored wetlands in SF Bay. Using DNA and RNA sequencing, coupled with real-time GHG monitoring, we profiled the diversity and metabolic potential of wetland soil microbial communities. The wetland soils harbor diverse communities of bacteria and archaea whose membership varies with sampling location, proximity to plant roots and sampling depth. Our results also highlight the dramatic differences in GHG production between historic and restored wetlands and allow us to link microbial community composition and GHG cycling with key environmental variables including salinity, soil carbon and plant species.

  12. Soil, environmental, and watershed measurements in support of carbon cycling studies in northwestern Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, T.G.; Harden, J.W.; Dabney, S.M.; Marion, D.A.; Alonso, C.; Sharpe, J.M.; Fries, T.L.

    1998-01-01

    Measurements including soil respiration, soil moisture, soil temperature, and carbon export in suspended sediments from small watersheds were recorded at several field sites in northwestern Mississippi in support of hillslope process studies associated with the U.S. Geological Survey's Mississippi Basin Carbon Project (MBCP). These measurements were made to provide information about carbon cycling in agricultural and forest ecosystems to understand the potential role of erosion and deposition in the sequestration of soil organic carbon in upland soils. The question of whether soil erosion and burial constitutes an important net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide is one hypothesis that the MBCP is evaluating to better understand carbon cycling and climate change. This report contains discussion of methods used and presents data for the period December 1996 through March 1998. Included in the report are ancillary data provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) ARS National Sedimentation Laboratory and U.S. Forest Service (USFS) Center for Bottomland Hardwoods Research on rainfall, runoff, sediment yield, forest biomass and grain yield. Together with the data collected by the USGS these data permit the construction of carbon budgets and the calibration of models of soil organic matter dynamics and sediment transport and deposition. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has established cooperative agreements with the USDA and USFS to facilitate collaborative research at research sites in northwestern Mississippi.

  13. Quantifying the transient carbon dynamics of ecosystem scale carbon cycle responses to piñon pine mortality using a large-scale experimental manipulation, remote sensing and model-data fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litvak, M. E.; Hilton, T. W.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Fox, A. M.; Robinson, E.; McDowell, N. G.; Rahn, T.; Sinsabaugh, R.

    2012-12-01

    measurements, but not in surviving coniferous trees. We discuss the rate of recovery of carbon dynamics in this woodland with respect to the plant functional responses to the severe drought of 2011 and 2012. In addition, we will use preliminary runs of the NCAR land surface model CLM (Community Land Model) run in point mode to examine how the response trajectory of these woodlands might change with increased CO2 and climate change.

  14. Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bozbiyik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.

  15. Carbon exergy tax applied to biomass integrated gasification combined cycle in sugarcane industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonseca Filho, Valdi Freire da; Matelli, José Alexandre; Perrella Balestieri, José Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The development of technologies based on energy renewable sources is increasing worldwide in order to diversify the energy mix and satisfy the rigorous environmental legislation and international agreements to reduce pollutant emission. Considering specific characteristics of biofuels available in Brazil, studies regarding such technologies should be carried out aiming energy mix diversification. Several technologies for power generation from biomass have been presented in the technical literature, and plants with BIGCC (biomass integrated gasification combined cycle) emerge as a major technological innovation. By obtaining a fuel rich in hydrogen from solid biomass gasification, BIGCC presents higher overall process efficiency than direct burning of the solid fuel in conventional boilers. The objective of this paper is to develop a thermodynamic and chemical equilibrium model of a BIGCC configuration for sugarcane bagasse. The model embodies exergetic cost and CO_2 emission analyses through the method of CET (carbon exergy tax). An exergetic penalty comparison between the BIGCC technology (with and without CO_2 capture and sequestration), a natural gas combined cycle and the traditional steam cycle of sugarcane sector is then presented. It is verified that the BIGCC configuration with CO_2 capture and sequestration presents technical and environmental advantages when compared to traditional technology. - Highlights: • We compared thermal cycles with the exergetic carbon exergy tax. • Thermal cycles with and without carbon capture and sequestration were considered. • Burned and gasified sugarcane bagasse was assumed as renewable fuel. • Exergetic carbon penalty tax was imposed to all studied configurations. • BIGCC with carbon sequestration revealed to be advantageous.

  16. Plumbing the global carbon cycle: Integrating inland waters into the terrestrial carbon budget

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cole, J.; Prairie, Y.T.; Caraco, N.; McDowell, W.H.; Tranvil, L.; Striegl, R.G.; Duarte, C.M.; Kortelainen, P.; Downing, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Melack, J.

    2007-01-01

    Because freshwater covers such a small fraction of the Earth’s surface area, inland freshwater ecosystems (particularly lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) have rarely been considered as potentially important quantitative components of the carbon cycle at either global or regional scales. By taking

  17. Exploring Viral Mediated Carbon Cycling in Thawing Permafrost Microbial Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubl, G. G.; Solonenko, N.; Moreno, M.; Sullivan, M. B.; Rich, V. I.

    2014-12-01

    Viruses are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and their impact on carbon cycling in permafrost habitats is poorly understood. Arctic C cycling is particularly important to interpret due to the rapid climate change occurring and the large amount of C stockpiled there (~1/3 of global soil C is stored in permafrost). Viruses of microbes (i.e. phages) play central roles in C cycling in the oceans, through cellular lysis (phage drive the largest ocean C flux about 150 Gt yr-1, dwarfing all others by >5-fold), production of associated DOC, as well as transport and expression during infection (1029 transduction events day-1). C cycling in thawing permafrost systems is critical in understanding the climate trajectory and phages may be as important for C cycling here as they are in the ocean. The thawed C may become a food source for microbes, producing CO2 and potentially CH4, both potent greenhouse gases. To address the potential role of phage in C cycling in these dynamic systems, we are examining phage from an arctic permafrost thaw gradient in northern Sweden. We have developed a protocol for successfully extracting phage from peat soils and are quantifying phage in 15 peat and 2 lake sediment cores, with the goal of sequencing viromes. Preliminary data suggest that phage are present at 109 g-1 across the permafrost thaw gradient (compared to the typical marine count ~105 ml-1), implying a potentially robust phage-host interaction web in these changing environments. We are examining phage from 11 depth intervals (covering the active and permafrost layer) in the cores to assess phage-host community dynamics. Phage morphology and abundance for each layer and environment are being determined using qTEM and EFM. Understanding the phage that infect bacteria and archaea in these rapidly changing habitats will provide insight into the controls on current and future CH4 and CO2 emissions in permafrost habitats.

  18. Superior flexibility of a wrinkled carbon shell under electrochemical cycling

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Qianqian; Wang, Peng; Feng, Qiong; Mao, Minmin; Liu, Jiabin; Wang, Hongtao; Mao, Scott; Zhang, Xixiang

    2014-01-01

    Nanocarbon composites have been extensively employed in engineering alloy-type anodes in order to improve the poor cyclability caused by the enormous volume changes during lithium (Li+) insertion/extraction. The chemical vapor deposited wrinkled carbon shell (WCS) shows high electrical conductivity, excellent thermal stability and remarkable mechanical robustness, which help in retaining the structural integrity around the tin (Sn) anode core despite ∼250% variation in volume during repetitive lithiation and delithiation. In situ transmission electron microscopy reveals no embrittlement in the lithiated WCS, which fully recovers its original shape after severe mechanical deformation with no obvious structural change. Further analysis indicates that the capacity to accommodate large strains is closely related to the construction of the carbon shell, that is, the stacking of wrinkled few-layer graphenes. Both the pre-existing wrinkles and the few-layer thickness render the carbon shell superior flexibility and good elasticity under bending or expansion of the interior volume. Moreover, the WCS possesses fast lithium ion diffusion channels, which have lower activation barriers (∼0.1 eV) than that on a smooth graphene (∼0.3 eV). The results provide an insight into the improvement in cycle performance that can be achieved through carbon coating of anodes of lithium ion batteries. © 2014 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  19. Climate impacts of bioenergy: Inclusion of carbon cycle and albedo dynamics in life cycle impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Cherubini, Francesco; Strømman, Anders H.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be an invaluable tool for the structured environmental impact assessment of bioenergy product systems. However, the methodology's static temporal and spatial scope combined with its restriction to emission-based metrics in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) inhibits its effectiveness at assessing climate change impacts that stem from dynamic land surface–atmosphere interactions inherent to all biomass-based product systems. In this paper, we focus on two dynamic issues related to anthropogenic land use that can significantly influence the climate impacts of bioenergy systems: i) temporary changes to the terrestrial carbon cycle; and ii) temporary changes in land surface albedo—and illustrate how they can be integrated within the LCA framework. In the context of active land use management for bioenergy, we discuss these dynamics and their relevancy and outline the methodological steps that would be required to derive case-specific biogenic CO 2 and albedo change characterization factors for inclusion in LCIA. We demonstrate our concepts and metrics with application to a case study of transportation biofuel sourced from managed boreal forest biomass in northern Europe. We derive GWP indices for three land management cases of varying site productivities to illustrate the importance and need to consider case- or region-specific characterization factors for bioenergy product systems. Uncertainties and limitations of the proposed metrics are discussed. - Highlights: ► A method for including temporary surface albedo and carbon cycle changes in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is elaborated. ► Concepts are applied to a single bioenergy case whereby a range of feedstock productivities are shown to influence results. ► Results imply that case- and site-specific characterization factors can be essential for a more informed impact assessment. ► Uncertainties and limitations of the proposed methodologies are elaborated.

  20. Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Ciais; A. J. Dolman; A. Bombelli; R. Duren; A. Peregon; P. J. Rayner; C. Miller; N. Gobron; G. Kinderman; G. Marland; N. Gruber; F. Chevallier; R. J. Andres; G. Balsamo; L. Bopp; F.-M. Bréon; G. Broquet; R. Dargaville; T. J. Battin; A. Borges; H. Bovensmann; M. Buchwitz; J. Butler; J. G. Canadell; R. B. Cook; R. DeFries; R. Engelen; K. R. Gurney; C. Heinze; M. Heimann; A. Held; M. Henry; B. Law; S. Luyssaert; J. Miller; T. Moriyama; C. Moulin; R. B. Myneni; C. Nussli; M. Obersteiner; D. Ojima; Y. Pan; J.-D. Paris; S. L. Piao; B. Poulter; S. Plummer; S. Quegan; P. Raymond; M. Reichstein; L. Rivier; C. Sabine; D. Schimel; O. Tarasova; R. Valentini; R. Wang; G. van der Werf; D. Wickland; M. Williams; C. Zehner

    2014-01-01

    A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires...

  1. Implications of Deep Decarbonization for Carbon Cycle Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Williams, J.; Torn, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    The energy-system transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization in the United States, defined as a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 80% or more below 1990 levels by 2050, have profound implications for carbon cycle science, particularly with respect to 4 key objectives: understanding and enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink, using bioenergy sustainably, controlling non-CO2 GHGs, and emissions monitoring and verification. (1) As a source of mitigation, the terrestrial carbon sink is pivotal but uncertain, and changes in the expected sink may significantly affect the overall cost of mitigation. Yet the dynamics of the sink under changing climatic conditions, and the potential to protect and enhance the sink through land management, are poorly understood. Policy urgently requires an integrative research program that links basic science knowledge to land management practices. (2) Biomass resources can fill critical energy needs in a deeply decarbonized system, but current understanding of sustainability and lifecycle carbon aspects is limited. Mitigation policy needs better understanding of the sustainable amount, types, and cost of bioenergy feedstocks, their interactions with other land uses, and more efficient and reliable monitoring of embedded carbon. (3) As CO2 emissions from energy decrease under deep decarbonization, the relative share of non-CO2 GHGs grows larger and their mitigation more important. Because the sources tend to be distributed, variable, and uncertain, they have been under-researched. Policy needs a better understanding of mitigation priorities and costs, informed by deeper research in key areas such as fugitive CH4, fertilizer-derived N2O, and industrial F-gases. (4) The M&V challenge under deep decarbonization changes with a steep decrease in the combustion CO2 sources due to widespread electrification, while a greater share of CO2 releases is net-carbon-neutral. Similarly, gas pipelines may carry an increasing share of

  2. Linking carbon and iron cycles by investigating transport, fate and mineralogy of iron-bearing colloids from peat-draining rivers - Scotland as model for high-latitude rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Deborah; Crocket, Kirsty; Brand, Tim; Stutter, Marc; Wilson, Clare; Schröder, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Linking carbon and iron cycles by investigating transport, fate and mineralogy of iron-bearing colloids from peat-draining rivers - Scotland as model for high-latitude rivers Wood, D.A¹, Crocket, K², Brand, T², Stutter, M³, Wilson, C¹ & Schröder, C¹ ¹Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA ²Scottish Association for Marine Science, University of the Highlands and Islands, Dunbeg, Oban, PA37 1QA ³James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH The biogeochemical iron cycle exerts significant control on the carbon cycle¹. Iron is a limiting nutrient in large areas of the world's oceans and its bioavailability controls CO2 uptake by marine photosynthesizing microorganisms. While atmospheric iron inputs to the open ocean have been extensively measured, global river inputs have likely been underestimated because most major world rivers exhibit extensive iron removal by flocculation and sedimentation during seawater mixing. Iron minerals and organic matter mutually stabilise each other², which results in a 'rusty carbon sink' in sediments³ on the one hand but may also enhance transport beyond the salinity gradient on the other. Humic-rich, high latitude rivers have a higher iron-carrying capacity⁴-⁶ but are underrepresented in iron flux calculations. The West Coast sea lochs in Scotland are fed by predominantly peatland drainage catchments, and the rivers entering the sea lochs carry a high load of organic matter. The short distance between many of these catchments and the coastal ocean facilitates source-to-sea research investigating transport, fate and mineralogy of iron-bearing colloids providing a good analogue for similar high latitude fjordic systems. We use SeaFAST+ICP-MS and Mössbauer spectroscopy to survey trace metal concentrations, with emphasis on iron concentrations, speciation and mineralogy, across salinity gradients. In combination with ultra-filtration techniques, this allows

  3. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  4. Life-Cycle Models for Survivable Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Linger, Richard

    2002-01-01

    .... Current software development life-cycle models are not focused on creating survivable systems, and exhibit shortcomings when the goal is to develop systems with a high degree of assurance of survivability...

  5. Aquatic carbon cycling in the conterminous United States and implications for terrestrial carbon accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butman, David; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stets, Edward; McDonald, Cory P; Clow, David W; Striegl, Robert G

    2016-01-05

    Inland water ecosystems dynamically process, transport, and sequester carbon. However, the transport of carbon through aquatic environments has not been quantitatively integrated in the context of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present the first integrated assessment, to our knowledge, of freshwater carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, where 106 (range: 71-149) teragrams of carbon per year (TgC⋅y(-1)) is exported downstream or emitted to the atmosphere and sedimentation stores 21 (range: 9-65) TgC⋅y(-1) in lakes and reservoirs. We show that there is significant regional variation in aquatic carbon flux, but verify that emission across stream and river surfaces represents the dominant flux at 69 (range: 36-110) TgC⋅y(-1) or 65% of the total aquatic carbon flux for the conterminous United States. Comparing our results with the output of a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), we suggest that within the current modeling framework, calculations of net ecosystem production (NEP) defined as terrestrial only may be overestimated by as much as 27%. However, the internal production and mineralization of carbon in freshwaters remain to be quantified and would reduce the effect of including aquatic carbon fluxes within calculations of terrestrial NEP. Reconciliation of carbon mass-flux interactions between terrestrial and aquatic carbon sources and sinks will require significant additional research and modeling capacity.

  6. Aquatic carbon cycling in the conterminous United States and implications for terrestrial carbon accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butman, David; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stets, Edward; McDonald, Cory P.; Clow, David W.; Striegl, Robert G.

    2016-01-01

    Inland water ecosystems dynamically process, transport, and sequester carbon. However, the transport of carbon through aquatic environments has not been quantitatively integrated in the context of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present the first integrated assessment, to our knowledge, of freshwater carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, where 106 (range: 71–149) teragrams of carbon per year (TgC⋅y−1) is exported downstream or emitted to the atmosphere and sedimentation stores 21 (range: 9–65) TgC⋅y−1 in lakes and reservoirs. We show that there is significant regional variation in aquatic carbon flux, but verify that emission across stream and river surfaces represents the dominant flux at 69 (range: 36–110) TgC⋅y−1 or 65% of the total aquatic carbon flux for the conterminous United States. Comparing our results with the output of a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), we suggest that within the current modeling framework, calculations of net ecosystem production (NEP) defined as terrestrial only may be overestimated by as much as 27%. However, the internal production and mineralization of carbon in freshwaters remain to be quantified and would reduce the effect of including aquatic carbon fluxes within calculations of terrestrial NEP. Reconciliation of carbon mass–flux interactions between terrestrial and aquatic carbon sources and sinks will require significant additional research and modeling capacity. PMID:26699473

  7. Testing causes for long-term changes in carbon cycling and climate during the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komar, N.; Zeebe, R. E.; Dickens, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    The late Paleocene to the early Eocene (˜58-52 Ma) was marked by significant changes in global climate and carbon cycling. Among the evidence for these changes, stable isotope records reveal a prominent decrease of δ13C and δ18O (in both surface and deep ocean), indicating a reorganization in the long-term global carbon cycle and a long-term warming trend (˜4°C), respectively. Concurrently, deep-sea carbonate records at several sites indicate a deepening of the calcite compensation depth (CCD). Here, we investigate possible causes (e.g., increased volcanic degassing, decreased net organic burial, and accelerated dissociation of gas hydrate) for these observations, but from a new perspective. The basic model employed is a modified version of GEOCARB III. However, we have coupled this well-known geochemical model to LOSCAR, a model that enables simulation of seawater carbonate chemistry, the CCD, and ocean δ13C. We have also added a gas hydrate capacitor that can account for the storage and release of methane from the seafloor over millions of years. We further consider accurate input data (e.g., δ13C of carbonate) on a currently accepted time scale that spans an interval much longer than the perturbation. Several different scenarios are investigated with the goal of consistency amongst inferred changes in temperature, the CCD, and surface ocean and deep ocean δ13C. The results strongly suggest that a decrease in net organic carbon burial drove carbon cycle changes during the late Paleocene and early Eocene, although an increase in volcanic activity might have contributed. Importantly, a drop in net organic carbon burial may represent increased oxidation of previously deposited organic carbon, such as stored in peat or gas hydrates. The model successfully recreates trends in Earth surface warming, as inferred from δ18O records, the CCD, and δ13C. At the moment, however, our coupled modeling effort cannot reproduce the magnitude of change in all these

  8. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon

  9. Nuclear fuel cycle modelling using MESSAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guiying Zhang; Dongsheng Niu; Guoliang Xu; Hui Zhang; Jue Li; Lei Cao; Zeqin Guo; Zhichao Wang; Yutong Qiu; Yanming Shi; Gaoliang Li

    2017-01-01

    In order to demonstrate the possibilities of application of MESSAGE tool for the modelling of a Nuclear Energy System at the national level, one of the possible open nuclear fuel cycle options based on thermal reactors has been modelled using MESSAGE. The steps of the front-end and back-end of nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear reactor operation are described. The optimal structure for Nuclear Power Development and optimal schedule for introducing various reactor technologies and fuel cycle options; infrastructure facilities, nuclear material flows and waste, investments and other costs are demonstrated. (author)

  10. US electric industry response to carbon constraint: a life-cycle assessment of supply side alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meier, P.J.; Wilson, P.P.H.; Kulcinski, G.L.; Denholm, P.L.

    2005-01-01

    This study explores the boundaries of electric industry fuel switching in response to US carbon constraints. A ternary model quantifies how supply side compliance alternatives would change under increasingly stringent climate policies and continued growth in electricity use. Under the White House Climate Change Initiative, greenhouse gas emissions may increase and little or no change in fuel-mix is necessary. As expected, the more significant carbon reductions proposed under the Kyoto Protocol (1990--7% levels) and Climate Stewardship Act (CSA) (1990 levels) require an increase of some combination of renewable, nuclear, or natural gas generated electricity. The current trend of natural gas power plant construction warrants the investigation of this technology as a sustainable carbon-mitigating measure. A detailed life-cycle assessment shows that significant greenhouse gas emissions occur upstream of the natural gas power plant, primarily during fuel-cycle operations. Accounting for the entire life-cycle increases the base emission rate for combined-cycle natural gas power by 22%. Two carbon-mitigating strategies are tested using life-cycle emission rates developed for US electricity generation. Relying solely on new natural gas plants for CSA compliance would require a 600% increase in natural gas generated electricity and almost complete displacement of coal from the fuel mix. In contrast, a 240% increase in nuclear or renewable resources meets the same target with minimal coal displacement. This study further demonstrates how neglecting life-cycle emissions, in particular those occurring upstream of the natural gas power plant, may cause erroneous assessment of supply side compliance alternatives

  11. A transport modeling of the carbon-nitrogen cycle at Igapó I Lake - Londrina, Paraná State, Brazil - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v34i2.11792

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suellen Ribeiro Pardo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This work is a contribution to a better understanding of the effect that domestic sewage discharges may cause in a water body, specifically at Igapó I Lake, in Londrina, Paraná State, Brazil. The simulation of the dynamics of pollutant concentrations throughout the water body was conducted by means of structured discretization of the geometry of Igapó I Lake, together with the finite differences and the finite elements methods. Firstly, the hydrodynamic flow (without the pollutants, modeled by Navier-Stokes and pressure equations, was numerically resolved by the finite differences method, and associated with the fourth order Runge-Kutta procedure. After that, by using the hydrodynamic field velocity, the flow of the reactive species (pollutants was described through a reaction transport model, restricted to the carbon-nitrogen cycle. The reaction transport model was numerically resolved by the stabilized finite elements method, by means of a semi-discrete formulation. A qualitative analysis of the numerical simulations provided a better understanding of the dynamics of the processes involved in the flow of the reactive species, such as the dynamics of the nitrification process, of the biochemical demand of oxygen and of the level of oxygen dissolved in the water body at Igapó I Lake.

  12. Toward a Mexican eddy covariance network for carbon cycle science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Rodrigo; Yépez, Enrico A.

    2011-09-01

    First Annual MexFlux Principal Investigators Meeting; Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, 4-8 May 2011; The carbon cycle science community has organized a global network, called FLUXNET, to measure the exchange of energy, water, and carbon dioxide (CO2) between the ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique. This network has provided unprecedented information for carbon cycle science and global climate change but is mostly represented by study sites in the United States and Europe. Thus, there is an important gap in measurements and understanding of ecosystem dynamics in other regions of the world that are seeing a rapid change in land use. Researchers met under the sponsorship of Red Temática de Ecosistemas and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT) to discuss strategies to establish a Mexican eddy covariance network (MexFlux) by identifying researchers, study sites, and scientific goals. During the meeting, attendees noted that 10 study sites have been established in Mexico with more than 30 combined years of information. Study sites span from new sites installed during 2011 to others with 9 to 6 years of measurements. Sites with the longest span measurements are located in Baja California Sur (established by Walter Oechel in 2002) and Sonora (established by Christopher Watts in 2005); both are semiarid ecosystems. MexFlux sites represent a variety of ecosystem types, including Mediterranean and sarcocaulescent shrublands in Baja California; oak woodland, subtropical shrubland, tropical dry forest, and a grassland in Sonora; tropical dry forests in Jalisco and Yucatan; a managed grassland in San Luis Potosi; and a managed pine forest in Hidalgo. Sites are maintained with an individual researcher's funds from Mexican government agencies (e.g., CONACYT) and international collaborations, but no coordinated funding exists for a long-term program.

  13. Assessing Students' Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Understanding of Global Carbon Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Hye Sun; Marshall, Jill A.; Delgado, Cesar

    2018-01-01

    Global carbon cycling describes the movement of carbon through atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere; it lies at the heart of climate change and sustainability. To understand the global carbon cycle, students will require "interdisciplinary knowledge." While standards documents in science education have long promoted…

  14. Effects of nitrogen deposition on carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Hao; Li, Dejun; Gurmesa, Geshere Abdisa

    2015-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) deposition in China has increased greatly, but the general impact of elevated N deposition on carbon (C) dynamics in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is not well documented. In this study we used a meta-analysis method to compile 88 studies on the effects of N deposition C cycling...... and rate of N addition. Overall, our findings suggest that 1) decreased below-ground plant C pool may limit long-term soil C sequestration; and 2) it is better to treat N-rich and N-limited ecosystems differently in modeling effects of N deposition on ecosystem C cycle....

  15. Global carbon cycle and possible disturbances due to man's interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pankrath, J

    1979-01-01

    Global atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration has increased since the beginning of reliable monitoring in 1958 at a mean rate of about 0.9 ppM CO/sub 2//y. Now, atmospheric, CO/sub 2/ concentration is at 330 ppM. From about 1860 up to 1974, man's intervention in the global carbon cycle caused a likely increase of 76.6 x 10/sup 15/ g C, corresponding to 36 ppM CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere, if a preindustrial content of 294 ppM CO/sub 2/ or 625.3 x 10/sup 15/ g C is adopted to be valid. A further rise of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ seems to be inevitable and probably will be responsible for a climatic warming in the next several decades; therefore, a global examination of carbon reservoirs and carbon fluxes has been undertaken to determine their storage capacity for excess carbon which originated mainly from burning of fossil fuels and from land clearing. During 1860 to 1974 about 136 x 10/sup 15/ g C have been emitted into the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion and cement production. At present, the emission rate is about 5 x 10/sup 15/ g C/y. The worldwide examination of carbon release, primarily by deforestation and soil cultivation since 1860, is estimated to be about 120 x 10/sup 15/ g C. The net transfer of carbon to the atmosphere owing to man's interference with the biosphere is now believed to be about 2.4 x 10/sup 15/ g C/y. An oceanic uptake of rougly 179 x 10/sup 15/ g C since 1860 is open to discussion. According to the chemical buffering of sea surface water only about 35.5 x 10/sup 15/ g C could have been absorbed. It is argued, however, that oceanic circulations might have been more effective in removing atmospheric excess carbon of anthropogenic origin.

  16. Heteroclinic cycles in the repressilator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsov, A.; Afraimovich, V.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We conduct analysis at infinity in the phase space of the repressilator model. ► We study two models with the original linear and a new saturable degradation terms. ► We link the evolution of an oscillatory solution with a heteroclinic cycle. ► The transition studied here presents a new bifurcation scenario. - Abstract: A repressilator is a synthetic regulatory network that produces self-sustained oscillations. We analyze the evolution of the oscillatory solution in the repressilator model. We have established a connection between the evolution of the oscillatory solution and formation of a heteroclinic cycle at infinity. The convergence of the limit cycle to the heteroclinic cycle occurs very differently compared to the well-studied cases. The transition studied here presents a new bifurcation scenario.

  17. The WAM model cycle 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guenther, H.; Hasselmann, S.; Janssen, P.A.E.M.

    1992-10-01

    The WAM-model is a third generation wave model which solves the wave transport equation explicitly without any presumptions on the shape of the wave spectrum. It represents the physics of the wave evolution in accordance with our knowledge today for the full set of degrees of freedom of a 2d wave spectrum. The model runs for any given regional or global grid with a prescribed topographic dataset. The grid resolution can be arbitrary in space and time. The propagation can be done on a latitudinal-longitudinal or on a carthesian grid. The model outputs the significant wave height, mean wave direction and frequency, the swell wave height and mean direction, wind stress fields corrected by including the wave induces stress and the drag coefficient at each grid point at chosen output times, and also the 2d wave spectrum at chosen grid points and output times. (orig.)

  18. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  19. Building carbon-carbon bonds using a biocatalytic methanol condensation cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogorad, Igor W; Chen, Chang-Ting; Theisen, Matthew K; Wu, Tung-Yun; Schlenz, Alicia R; Lam, Albert T; Liao, James C

    2014-11-11

    Methanol is an important intermediate in the utilization of natural gas for synthesizing other feedstock chemicals. Typically, chemical approaches for building C-C bonds from methanol require high temperature and pressure. Biological conversion of methanol to longer carbon chain compounds is feasible; however, the natural biological pathways for methanol utilization involve carbon dioxide loss or ATP expenditure. Here we demonstrated a biocatalytic pathway, termed the methanol condensation cycle (MCC), by combining the nonoxidative glycolysis with the ribulose monophosphate pathway to convert methanol to higher-chain alcohols or other acetyl-CoA derivatives using enzymatic reactions in a carbon-conserved and ATP-independent system. We investigated the robustness of MCC and identified operational regions. We confirmed that the pathway forms a catalytic cycle through (13)C-carbon labeling. With a cell-free system, we demonstrated the conversion of methanol to ethanol or n-butanol. The high carbon efficiency and low operating temperature are attractive for transforming natural gas-derived methanol to longer-chain liquid fuels and other chemical derivatives.

  20. A comparison of major petroleum life cycle models | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many organizations have attempted to develop an accurate well-to-pump life cycle model of petroleum products in order to inform decision makers of the consequences of its use. Our paper studies five of these models, demonstrating the differences in their predictions and attempting to evaluate their data quality. Carbon dioxide well-to-pump emissions for gasoline showed a variation of 35 %, and other pollutants such as ammonia and particulate matter varied up to 100 %. Differences in allocation do not appear to explain differences in predictions. Effects of these deviations on well-to-wheels passenger vehicle and truck transportation life cycle models may be minimal for effects such as global warming potential (6 % spread), but for respiratory effects of criteria pollutants (41 % spread) and other impact categories, they can be significant. A data quality assessment of the models’ documentation revealed real differences between models in temporal and geographic representativeness, completeness, as well as transparency. Stakeholders may need to consider carefully the tradeoffs inherent when selecting a model to conduct life cycle assessments for systems that make heavy use of petroleum products. This is a qualitative and quantitative comparison of petroleum LCA models intended for an expert audience interested in better understanding the data quality of existing petroleum life cycle models and the quantitative differences between these models.

  1. Evaluation and optimization of a supercritical carbon dioxide power conversion cycle for nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvego, Edwin A.; McKellar, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    There have been a number of studies involving the use of gases operating in the supercritical mode for power production and process heat applications. Supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is particularly attractive because it is capable of achieving relatively high power conversion cycle efficiencies in the temperature range between 550degC and 750degC. Therefore, it has the potential for use with any type of high-temperature nuclear reactor concept, assuming reactor core outlet temperatures of at least 550degC. The particular power cycle investigated in this paper is a supercritical CO 2 recompression Brayton Cycle. The CO 2 recompression Brayton Cycle can be used as either a direct or indirect power conversion cycle, depending on the reactor type and reactor outlet temperature. The advantage of this cycle when compared to the helium Brayton Cycle is the lower required operating temperature; 550degC versus 750degC. However, the supercritical CO 2 recompression Brayton Cycle requires a high end operating pressure in the range of 20 MPa, which is considerably higher than the required helium Brayton cycle high end operating pressure of 7 MPa. This paper presents results of analyses performed using the UniSim process analyses software to evaluate the performance of the supercritical CO 2 recompression Brayton cycle for different reactor coolant outlet temperatures and mass flow rates. The UniSim model assumed a 600 MWt reactor power source, which provides heat to the power cycle at a maximum temperature of between 550degC and 850degC. Sensitivity calculations were also performed to determine the affect of reactor coolant mass flow rates for a reference reactor coolant outlet temperature of 750degC. The UniSim model used realistic component parameters and operating conditions to model the complete power conversion system. CO 2 properties were evaluated, and the operating range for the cycle was adjusted to take advantage of the rapidly changing conditions near the

  2. Terrestrial nitrogen cycling in Earth system models revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin D; Prentice, I. Colin; Cornell, Sarah; Davies-Barnard, T; Finzi, Adrien; Franklin, Oskar; Janssens, Ivan; Larmola, Tuula; Manzoni, Stefano; Näsholm, Torgny; Raven, John; Rebel, Karin; Reed, Sasha C.; Vicca, Sara; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the degree to which nitrogen (N) availability limits land carbon (C) uptake under global environmental change represents an unresolved challenge. First-generation ‘C-only’vegetation models, lacking explicit representations of N cycling,projected a substantial and increasing land C sink under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This prediction was questioned for not taking into account the potentially limiting effect of N availability, which is necessary for plant growth (Hungate et al.,2003). More recent global models include coupled C and N cycles in land ecosystems (C–N models) and are widely assumed to be more realistic. However, inclusion of more processes has not consistently improved their performance in capturing observed responses of the global C cycle (e.g. Wenzel et al., 2014). With the advent of a new generation of global models, including coupled C, N, and phosphorus (P) cycling, model complexity is sure to increase; but model reliability may not, unless greater attention is paid to the correspondence of model process representations ande mpirical evidence. It was in this context that the ‘Nitrogen Cycle Workshop’ at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK was held on 1–5 February 2016. Organized by I. Colin Prentice and Benjamin D. Stocker (Imperial College London, UK), the workshop was funded by the European Research Council,project ‘Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change’ (EMBRACE). We gathered empirical ecologists and ecosystem modellers to identify key uncertainties in terrestrial C–N cycling, and to discuss processes that are missing or poorly represented in current models.

  3. Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

  4. Impact of volcanic eruptions on the marine carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segschneider, Joachim; Ulrike, Niemeier; Martin, Wiesner; Claudia, Timmreck

    2010-05-01

    The impact of volcanic eruptions on the marine carbon cycle is investigated for the example of the Pinatubo eruption with model simulations of the distribution of the ash cloud and deposition on the ocean surface and the impact of the nutrient addition from ash leachates on the oceanic biological production and hence biological carbon pump. Natural variations of aerosols, especially due to large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, are recognized as a significant climate forcing, altering the Earth's radiation balance and thus tending to cause global temperature changes. While the impact of such events on climate and the terrestrial biosphere is relatively well documented, scientific knowledge of their effects on marine ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere is still very limited. In the deep sea, subaerial eruptive events of global significance are commonly recorded as widespread ash layers, which were often found to be associated with increased abundances of planktic organisms. This has led to the hypothesis that the influx of volcanic ash may provide an external nutrient source for primary production (in particular through iron fertilization) in ocean surface waters. Recent laboratory experiments have demonstrated that pristine volcanic ash indeed releases significant amounts of macronutrients and bioactive trace metals (including phosphate, iron and silica) adsorbed to the surface of the ash particles. The release of these components most likely has its largest impact in ocean regions where their availability is crucial for the growth of oceanic biomass, which are the high-nutrient but low-productivity (low-iron) areas in the Pacific and the Southern Ocean. These in turn are neighbored by most of those subaerially active volcanoes that are capable of ejecting huge amounts of aerosols into the high-velocity stratospheric wind fields. The dispersal and fallout of ash thus has a high potential to induce globally significant, transient net CO2 removal from

  5. Changes in the Carbon Cycle of Amazon Ecosystems During the 2010 Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christophera; Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa; Castilla-Rubino, Juan Carlos

    2011-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production (NPP) in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon River basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to forests outside the main river floodplains.

  6. Changes in the carbon cycle of Amazon ecosystems during the 2010 drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, Christopher [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States); Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa [California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA (United States); Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos, E-mail: chris.potter@nasa.gov [Planetary Skin Institute, Silicon Valley, CA (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO{sub 2} uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon river basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to those for forests outside the main river floodplains.

  7. Changes in the carbon cycle of Amazon ecosystems during the 2010 drought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa; Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos

    2011-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO 2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon river basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO 2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to those for forests outside the main river floodplains.

  8. Simulation and Assessment of Whole Life-Cycle Carbon Emission Flows from Different Residential Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rikun Wen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available To explore the differences in carbon emissions over the whole life-cycle of different building structures, the published calculated carbon emissions from residential buildings in China and abroad were normalized. Embodied carbon emission flows, operations stage carbon emission flows, demolition and reclamation stage carbon emission flows and total life-cycle carbon emission flows from concrete, steel, and wood structures were obtained. This study is based on the theory of the social cost of carbon, with an adequately demonstrated social cost of carbon and social discount rate. Taking into consideration both static and dynamic situations and using a social discount rate of 3.5%, the total life-cycle carbon emission flows, absolute carbon emission and building carbon costs were calculated and assessed. The results indicated that concrete structures had the highest embodied carbon emission flows and negative carbon emission flows in the waste and reclamation stage. Wood structures that started the life-cycle with stored carbon had the lowest carbon emission flows in the operations stage and relatively high negative carbon emission flows in the reclamation stage. Wood structures present the smallest carbon footprints for residential buildings.

  9. Radiocarbon Evidence That Millennial and Fast-Cycling Soil Carbon are Equally Sensitive to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughn, L. S.; Torn, M. S.; Porras, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    Within the century, the Arctic is expected to shift from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO2 due to climate-induced increases in soil carbon mineralization. The magnitude of this effect remains uncertain, due in large part to unknown temperature sensitivities of organic matter decomposition. In particular, the distribution of temperature sensitivities across soil carbon pools remains unknown. New experimental approaches are needed, because studies that fit multi-pool models to CO2 flux measurements may be sensitive to model assumptions, statistical effects, and non-steady-state changes in substrate availability or microbial activity. In this study, we developed a new methodology using natural abundance radiocarbon to evaluate temperature sensitivities across soil carbon pools. In two incubation experiments with soils from Barrow, AK, we (1) evaluated soil carbon age and decomposability, (2) disentangled the effects of temperature and substrate depletion on carbon mineralization, and (3) compared the temperature sensitivities of fast- and slow-cycling soil carbon pools. From a long-term incubation, both respired CO2 and the remaining soil organic matter were highly depleted in radiocarbon. At 20 cm depth, median Δ14C values were -167‰ in respired CO2 and -377‰ in soil organic matter, corresponding to turnover times of 1800 and 4800 years, respectively. Such negative Δ14C values indicate both storage and decomposition of old, stabilized carbon, while radiocarbon differences between the mineralized and non-mineralized fractions suggest that decomposability varies along a turnover time gradient. Applying a new analytical method combining CO2 flux and Δ14C, we found that fast- and slow-cycling carbon pools were equally sensitive to temperature, with a Q10 of 2 irrespective of turnover time. We conclude that in these Arctic soils, ancient soil carbon is vulnerable to warming under thawed, aerobic conditions. In contrast to many previous studies, we found no

  10. The geological carbon cycle and the global warming / climate debate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, F.

    2013-01-01

    The extensively cited seasonal carbon cycle describes the size and the annual fluxes between the temporary reservoirs (ocean, atmosphere, biosphere and soils). Compared with these large annual fluxes (approx. 200 GtC/y) the human contribution seems to be of minor amount and is currently (2011) in the range of 4-5%. However, in the geological carbon cycle, which describes the nearly equal amounts of input (volcanoes etc.) and output (sediments) into and from the temporary reservoirs, the human contribution has now reached 30-50 times the average natural level (9.5 Gt C/y versus ca. 0.2-0.3Gt C/y). In the long-term range (1-10x106y), the variable, but much smaller net imbalance between these geological sources und sinks was responsible for the atmospheric CO2-level in the last 400 My (since then comparable temporary reservoirs exist) and influenced via the various feedbacks the climate on earth. In nearly 95% of this long time the climate system was in (nearly) equilibrium conditions and changes occurred extremely slow. Whenever a certain range of higher rate of change of these driving forces were reached, it had - together with other effects - severe influence on the evolution of life, causing 5 large and many minor 'geological accidents'. Based on isotope geochemistry and a fairly good time resolution by orbitally tuned cyclostratigraphy (astrochronology) in the sedimentary record, we are able to quantify these rates of change with reasonable errors. It turns out that the present rate of change - caused by the C-based fossil energy use - is one to two orders of magnitude more rapid than these severe events (impacts excluded) in the earth system. A vast amount of data is available from the ice age cycles. Climate geology (e.g. the group of M. Sarnthein) made considerable progress in understanding the related geological/oceanic processes and proposed a reasonably constrained mass balance of CO2 during the last cycle, which could help us to understand the future

  11. A hybrid mammalian cell cycle model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Noël

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid modeling provides an effective solution to cope with multiple time scales dynamics in systems biology. Among the applications of this method, one of the most important is the cell cycle regulation. The machinery of the cell cycle, leading to cell division and proliferation, combines slow growth, spatio-temporal re-organisation of the cell, and rapid changes of regulatory proteins concentrations induced by post-translational modifications. The advancement through the cell cycle comprises a well defined sequence of stages, separated by checkpoint transitions. The combination of continuous and discrete changes justifies hybrid modelling approaches to cell cycle dynamics. We present a piecewise-smooth version of a mammalian cell cycle model, obtained by hybridization from a smooth biochemical model. The approximate hybridization scheme, leading to simplified reaction rates and binary event location functions, is based on learning from a training set of trajectories of the smooth model. We discuss several learning strategies for the parameters of the hybrid model.

  12. Sources and mobility of carbonate melts beneath cratons, with implications for deep carbon cycling, metasomatism and rift initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappe, Sebastian; Romer, Rolf L.; Stracke, Andreas; Steenfelt, Agnete; Smart, Katie A.; Muehlenbachs, Karlis; Torsvik, Trond H.

    2017-05-01

    Kimberlite and carbonatite magmas that intrude cratonic lithosphere are among the deepest probes of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Their co-existence on thick continental shields is commonly attributed to continuous partial melting sequences of carbonated peridotite at >150 km depths, possibly as deep as the mantle transition zone. At Tikiusaaq on the North Atlantic craton in West Greenland, approximately 160 Ma old ultrafresh kimberlite dykes and carbonatite sheets provide a rare opportunity to study the origin and evolution of carbonate-rich melts beneath cratons. Although their Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb-Li isotopic compositions suggest a common convecting upper mantle source that includes depleted and recycled oceanic crust components (e.g., negative ΔεHf coupled with > + 5 ‰ δ7Li), incompatible trace element modelling identifies only the kimberlites as near-primary low-degree partial melts (0.05-3%) of carbonated peridotite. In contrast, the trace element systematics of the carbonatites are difficult to reproduce by partial melting of carbonated peridotite, and the heavy carbon isotopic signatures (-3.6 to - 2.4 ‰ δ13C for carbonatites versus -5.7 to - 3.6 ‰ δ13C for kimberlites) require open-system fractionation at magmatic temperatures. Given that the oxidation state of Earth's mantle at >150 km depth is too reduced to enable larger volumes of 'pure' carbonate melt to migrate, it is reasonable to speculate that percolating near-solidus melts of carbonated peridotite must be silicate-dominated with only dilute carbonate contents, similar to the Tikiusaaq kimberlite compositions (e.g., 16-33 wt.% SiO2). This concept is supported by our findings from the North Atlantic craton where kimberlite and other deeply derived carbonated silicate melts, such as aillikites, exsolve their carbonate components within the shallow lithosphere en route to the Earth's surface, thereby producing carbonatite magmas. The relative abundances of trace elements of such highly

  13. Tropical wetlands: A missing link in the global carbon cycle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjögersten, Sofie; Black, Colin R; Evers, Stephanie; Hoyos-Santillan, Jorge; Wright, Emma L; Turner, Benjamin L

    2014-01-01

    Tropical wetlands are not included in Earth system models, despite being an important source of methane (CH4) and contributing a large fraction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry in the tropics. This review identifies a remarkable lack of data on the carbon balance and gas fluxes from undisturbed tropical wetlands, which limits the ability of global change models to make accurate predictions about future climate. We show that the available data on in situ carbon gas fluxes in undisturbed forested tropical wetlands indicate marked spatial and temporal variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions, with exceptionally large fluxes in Southeast Asia and the Neotropics. By upscaling short-term measurements, we calculate that approximately 90 ± 77 Tg CH4 year−1 and 4540 ± 1480 Tg CO2 year−1 are released from tropical wetlands globally. CH4 fluxes are greater from mineral than organic soils, whereas CO2 fluxes do not differ between soil types. The high CO2 and CH4 emissions are mirrored by high rates of net primary productivity and litter decay. Net ecosystem productivity was estimated to be greater in peat-forming wetlands than on mineral soils, but the available data are insufficient to construct reliable carbon balances or estimate gas fluxes at regional scales. We conclude that there is an urgent need for systematic data on carbon dynamics in tropical wetlands to provide a robust understanding of how they differ from well-studied northern wetlands and allow incorporation of tropical wetlands into global climate change models. PMID:26074666

  14. Effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbore, Susan E.; Davidson, Eric A.

    1994-01-01

    The overall goal of this study was to provide a quantitative understanding of the cycling of carbon in the soils associated with deep-rooting Amazon forests. In particular, we wished to apply the understanding gained by answering two questions: (1) what changes will accompany the major land use change in this region, the conversion of forest to pasture? and (2) what is the role of carbon stored deeper than one meter in depth in these soils? To construct carbon budgets for pasture and forest soils we combined the following: measurements of carbon stocks in above-ground vegetation, root biomass, detritus, and soil organic matter; rates of carbon inputs to soil and detrital layers using litterfall collection and sequential coring to estimate fine root turnover; C-14 analyses of fractionated SOM and soil CO2 to estimate residence times; C-13 analyses to estimate C inputs to pasture soils from C-4 grasses; soil pCO2, volumetric water content, and radon gradients to estimate CO2 production as a function of soil depth; soil respiration to estimate total C outputs; and a model of soil C dynamics that defines SOM fractions cycling on annual, decadal, and millennial time scales.

  15. New Adsorption Cycles for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Ritter; Armin Ebner; Steven Reynolds Hai Du; Amal Mehrotra

    2008-07-31

    tested successfully against several cycle schedules taken from the literature, including a 2-bed 4-step Skarstrom cycle, a 4-bed 9-step process with 2 equalization steps, a 9-bed 11-step process with 3 equalization steps, and a 6-bed 13-step process with 4 equalization steps and 4 idle steps. With respect to CO{sub 2} capture and concentration by PSA, this new approach is now providing a very straightforward way to determine all the viable 3-bed, 4-bed, 5-bed, n-bed, etc. HR PSA cycle schedules to explore using both simulation and experimentation. This program also touted the use of K-promoted HTlc as a high temperature, reversible adsorbent for CO{sub 2} capture by PSA. This program not only showed how to use this material in HR PSA cycles, but it also proposed a new CO{sub 2} interaction mechanism in conjunction with a non-equilibrium kinetic model that adequately describes the uptake and release of CO{sub 2} in this material, and some preliminary fixed bed adsorption breakthrough and desorption elution experiments were carried out to demonstrate complete reversibility on a larger scale. This information was essentially missing from the literature and deemed invaluable toward promoting the use of K-promoted HTlc as a high temperature, reversible adsorbent for CO{sub 2} capture by PSA. Overall, the objectives of this project were met. It showed the feasibility of using K-promoted hydrotalcite (HTlc) as a high temperature, reversible adsorbent for CO{sub 2} capture by PSA. It discovered some novel HR PSA cycles that might be useful for this purpose. Finally, it revealed a mechanistic understanding of the interaction of CO{sub 2} with K-promoted HTlc.

  16. Modeling the Rock Glacier Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R. S.; Anderson, L. S.

    2016-12-01

    Rock glaciers are common in many mountain ranges in which the ELA lies above the peaks. They represent some of the most identifiable components of today's cryosphere in these settings. Their oversteepened snouts pose often-overlooked hazards to travel in alpine terrain. Rock glaciers are supported by avalanches and by rockfall from steep headwalls. The winter's avalanche cone must be sufficiently thick not to melt entirely in the summer. The spatial distribution of rock glaciers reflects this dependence on avalanche sources; they are most common on lee sides of ridges where wind-blown snow augments the avalanche source. In the absence of rockfall, this would support a short, cirque glacier. Depending on the relationship between rockfall and avalanche patterns, "talus-derived" and "glacier-derived" rock glaciers are possible. Talus-derived: If the spatial distribution of rock delivery is similar to the avalanche pattern, the rock-ice mixture will travel an englacial path that is downward through the short accumulation zone before turning upward in the ablation zone. Advected debris is then delivered to the base of a growing surface debris layer that reduces the ice melt rate. The physics is identical to the debris-covered glacier case. Glacier-derived: If on the other hand rockfall from the headwall rolls beyond the avalanche cone, it is added directly to the ablation zone of the glacier. The avalanche accumulation zone then supports a pure ice core to the rock glacier. We have developed numerical models designed to capture the full range of glacier to debris-covered glacier to rock glacier behavior. The hundreds of meter lengths, tens of meters thicknesses, and meter per year speeds of rock glaciers are well described by the models. The model can capture both "talus-derived" and "glacier-derived" rock glaciers. We explore the dependence of glacier behavior on climate histories. As climate warms, a pure ice debris-covered glacier can transform to a much shorter rock

  17. Environmental science. Rethinking the marine carbon cycle: factoring in the multifarious lifestyles of microbes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worden, Alexandra Z; Follows, Michael J; Giovannoni, Stephen J; Wilken, Susanne; Zimmerman, Amy E; Keeling, Patrick J

    2015-02-13

    The profound influence of marine plankton on the global carbon cycle has been recognized for decades, particularly for photosynthetic microbes that form the base of ocean food chains. However, a comprehensive model of the carbon cycle is challenged by unicellular eukaryotes (protists) having evolved complex behavioral strategies and organismal interactions that extend far beyond photosynthetic lifestyles. As is also true for multicellular eukaryotes, these strategies and their associated physiological changes are difficult to deduce from genome sequences or gene repertoires—a problem compounded by numerous unknown function proteins. Here, we explore protistan trophic modes in marine food webs and broader biogeochemical influences. We also evaluate approaches that could resolve their activities, link them to biotic and abiotic factors, and integrate them into an ecosystems biology framework. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Glacial Cycles and ice-sheet modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1982-01-01

    An attempt is made to simulate the Pleistocene glacial cycles with a numerical model of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. This model treats the vertically-integrated ice flow along a meridian, including computation of bedrock adjustment and temperature distribution in the ice. Basal melt water is

  19. Soils and Global Change in the Carbon Cycle over Geological Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retallack, G. J.

    2003-12-01

    Soils play an important role in the carbon cycle as the nutrition of photosynthesized biomass. Nitrogen fixed by microbes from air is a limiting nutrient for ecosystems within the first flush of ecological succession of new ground, and sulfur can limit some components of wetland ecosystems. But over the long term, the limiting soil nutrient is phosphorus extracted by weathering from minerals such as apatite (Vitousek et al., 1997a; Chadwick et al., 1999). Life has an especially voracious appetite for common alkali (Na+ and K+) and alkaline earth (Ca2+ and Mg2+) cations, supplied by hydrolytic weathering, which is in turn amplified by biological acidification (Schwartzmann and Volk, 1991; see Chapter 5.06). These mineral nutrients fuel photosynthetic fixation and chemical reduction of atmospheric CO2 into plants and plantlike microbes, which are at the base of the food chain. Plants and photosynthetic microbes are consumed and oxidized by animals, fungi, and other respiring microbes, which release CO2, methane, and water vapor to the air. These greenhouse gases absorb solar radiation more effectively than atmospheric oxygen and nitrogen, and are important regulators of planetary temperature and albedo (Kasting, 1992). Variations in solar insolation ( Kasting, 1992), mountainous topography ( Raymo and Ruddiman, 1992), and ocean currents ( Ramstein et al., 1997) also play a role in climate, but this review focuses on the carbon cycle. The carbon cycle is discussed in detail in Volume 8 of this Treatise.The greenhouse model for global paleoclimate has proven remarkably robust (Retallack, 2002), despite new challenges ( Veizer et al., 2000). The balance of producers and consumers is one of a number of controls on atmospheric greenhouse gas balance, because CO2 is added to the air from fumaroles, volcanic eruptions, and other forms of mantle degassing (Holland, 1984). Carbon dioxide is also consumed by burial as carbonate and organic matter within limestones and other

  20. Contributions of Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Mats to Forest Soil Carbon Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluber, L. A.; Phillips, C. L.; Myrold, D. D.; Bond, B. J.

    2008-12-01

    Ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi are a prominent and ubiquitous feature of forest soils, forming symbioses with most tree species, yet little is known about the magnitude of their impact on forest carbon cycles. A subset of EM fungi form dense, perennial aggregations of hyphae, which have elevated respiration rates compared with neighboring non-mat soils. These mats are a foci of EM activity and thereby a natural laboratory for examining how EM fungi impact forest soils. In order to constrain the contributions of EM fungi to forest soil respiration, we quantified the proportion of respiration derived from EM mat soils in an old-growth Douglas-fir stand in western Oregon. One dominant genus of mat-forming fungi, Piloderma, covered 56% of the soil surface area. Piloderma mats were monitored for respiration rates over 15 months and found to have on average 10% higher respiration than non-mat soil. At the stand level, this amounts to roughly 6% of soil respiration due to the presence of Piloderma mats. We calculate that these mats may constitute 27% of autotrophic respiration, based on respiration rates from trenched plots in a neighboring forest stand. Furthermore, enzyme activity and microbial community profiles in mat and non-mat soil provide evidence that specialized communities utilizing chitin contribute to this increased efflux. With 60% higher chitinase activity in mats, the breakdown of chitin is likely an important carbon flux while providing carbon and nitrogen to the microbial communities associated with mats. Quantitative PCR showed similar populations of fungi and bacteria in mat and non-mat soils; however, community analysis revealed distinct fungal and bacterial communities in the two soil types. The higher respiration associated with EM mats does not appear to be due only to a proliferation of EM fungi, but to a shift in overall community composition to organisms that efficiently utilize the unique resources available within the mat, including plant and

  1. Life cycle analysis of geothermal power generation with supercritical carbon dioxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, Edward D; Sullivan, John L; Wang, Michael Q

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle analysis methods were employed to model the greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with geothermal power production when supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO 2 ) is used instead of saline geofluids to recover heat from below ground. Since a significant amount of scCO 2 is sequestered below ground in the process, a constant supply is required. We therefore combined the scCO 2 geothermal power plant with an upstream coal power plant that captured a portion of its CO 2 emissions, compressed it to scCO 2 , and transported the scCO 2 by pipeline to the geothermal power plant. Emissions and energy consumption from all operations spanning coal mining and plant construction through power production were considered, including increases in coal use to meet steam demand for the carbon capture. The results indicated that the electricity produced by the geothermal plant more than balanced the increase in energy use resulting from carbon capture at the coal power plant. The effective heat rate (BTU coal per total kW h of electricity generated, coal plus geothermal) was comparable to that of traditional coal, but the ratio of life cycle emissions from the combined system to that of traditional coal was 15% when 90% carbon capture efficiency was assumed and when leakage from the surface was neglected. Contributions from surface leakage were estimated with a simple model for several hypothetical surface leakage rates. (letter)

  2. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  3. How does soil erosion influence the terrestrial carbon cycle and the impacts of land use and land cover change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naipal, V.; Wang, Y.; Ciais, P.; Guenet, B.; Lauerwald, R.

    2017-12-01

    The onset of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion rates significantly, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (LULCC). However, a full understanding of the impact of soil erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods, which are compatible with earth system models (ESMs), and explicitly represent the links between soil erosion and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of ORCHIDEE, which is the land component of the IPSL ESM, in combination with an adjusted version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate how soil erosion influenced the terrestrial carbon cycle in the presence of elevated CO2, regional climate change and land use change. Here, we focus on the effects of soil detachment by erosion only and do not consider sediment transport and deposition. We found that including soil erosion in the SOC dynamics-scheme resulted in two times more SOC being lost during the historical period (1850-2005 AD). LULCC is the main contributor to this SOC loss, whose impact on the SOC stocks is significantly amplified by erosion. Regionally, the influence of soil erosion varies significantly, depending on the magnitude of the perturbations to the carbon cycle and the effects of LULCC and climate change on soil erosion rates. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LULCC, and to explicitly consider the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on the carbon cycle and on soil erosion, for better quantification of past, present, and future LULCC carbon emissions.

  4. Modeling of SONOS Memory Cell Erase Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Thomas A.; MacLeod, Todd C.; Ho, Fat H.

    2011-01-01

    Utilization of Silicon-Oxide-Nitride-Oxide-Silicon (SONOS) nonvolatile semiconductor memories as a flash memory has many advantages. These electrically erasable programmable read-only memories (EEPROMs) utilize low programming voltages, have a high erase/write cycle lifetime, are radiation hardened, and are compatible with high-density scaled CMOS for low power, portable electronics. In this paper, the SONOS memory cell erase cycle was investigated using a nonquasi-static (NQS) MOSFET model. Comparisons were made between the model predictions and experimental data.

  5. Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Energy Conversion System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cha, Jae Eun; Kim, S. O.; Seong, S. H.; Eoh, J. H.; Lee, T. H.; Choi, S. K.; Han, J. W.; Bae, S. W

    2007-12-15

    This report contains the description of the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle coupled to KALIMER-600 as an alternative energy conversion system. For system development, a computer code was developed to calculate heat balance of 100% power operation condition. Based on the computer code, the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle energy conversion system was constructed for the KALIMER-600. Using the developed turbomachinery models, the off-design characteristics and the sensitivities of the S-CO{sub 2} turbomachinery were investigated. For the development of PCHE models, a one-dimensional analysis computer code was developed to evaluate the performance of the PCHE. Possible control schemes for power control in the KALIMER-600 S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle were investigated by using the MARS code. Simple power reduction and recovery event was selected and analyzed for the transient calculation. For the evaluation of Na/CO{sub 2} boundary failure event, a computer was developed to simulate the complex thermodynamic behaviors coupled with the chemical reaction between liquid sodium and CO{sub 2} gas. The long term behavior of a Na/CO{sub 2} boundary failure event and its consequences which lead to a system pressure transient were evaluated.

  6. Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Energy Conversion System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Jae Eun; Kim, S. O.; Seong, S. H.; Eoh, J. H.; Lee, T. H.; Choi, S. K.; Han, J. W.; Bae, S. W.

    2007-12-01

    This report contains the description of the S-CO 2 Brayton cycle coupled to KALIMER-600 as an alternative energy conversion system. For system development, a computer code was developed to calculate heat balance of 100% power operation condition. Based on the computer code, the S-CO 2 Brayton cycle energy conversion system was constructed for the KALIMER-600. Using the developed turbomachinery models, the off-design characteristics and the sensitivities of the S-CO 2 turbomachinery were investigated. For the development of PCHE models, a one-dimensional analysis computer code was developed to evaluate the performance of the PCHE. Possible control schemes for power control in the KALIMER-600 S-CO 2 Brayton cycle were investigated by using the MARS code. Simple power reduction and recovery event was selected and analyzed for the transient calculation. For the evaluation of Na/CO 2 boundary failure event, a computer was developed to simulate the complex thermodynamic behaviors coupled with the chemical reaction between liquid sodium and CO 2 gas. The long term behavior of a Na/CO 2 boundary failure event and its consequences which lead to a system pressure transient were evaluated

  7. The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

    2008-01-01

    Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

  8. Carbon Footprint Analysis for Mechanization of Maize Production Based on Life Cycle Assessment: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haina Wang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The theory on the carbon footprint of agriculture can systematically evaluate the carbon emissions caused by artificial factors from the agricultural production process, which is the theoretical basis for constructing low-carbon agriculture and has important guiding significance for realizing low-carbon agriculture. Based on farm production survey data from Jilin Province in 2014, this paper aims to obtain a clear understanding of the carbon footprint of maize production through the following method: (1 one ton of maize production was evaluated systematically by using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA; (2 the carbon emissions of the whole system were estimated based on field measurement data, (3 using the emission factors we estimated Jilin’s carbon footprint for the period 2006–2013, and forecasted it for the period from 2014 to 2020 using the grey system model GM (1, 1.

  9. Effects of Lime and Concrete Waste on Vadose Zone Carbon Cycling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thaysen, Eike Marie; Jessen, Søren; Postma, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this work we investigate how lime and crushed concrete waste (CCW) affect carbon cycling in the vadose zone and explore whether these amendments could be employed to mitigate climate change by increasing the transport of CO2 from the atmosphere to the groundwater. We use a combination of exper......In this work we investigate how lime and crushed concrete waste (CCW) affect carbon cycling in the vadose zone and explore whether these amendments could be employed to mitigate climate change by increasing the transport of CO2 from the atmosphere to the groundwater. We use a combination...... of experimental and modeling tools to determine ongoing biogeochemical processes. Our results demonstrate that lime and CCW amendments to acid soil contribute to the climate forcing by largely increasing the soil CO2 efflux to the atmosphere. In a series of mesocosm experiments, with barley (Hordeum vulgare L.......) grown on podzolic soil material, we have investigated inorganic carbon cycling through the gaseous and liquid phases and how it is affected by different soil amendments. The mesocosm amendments comprised the addition of 0, 9.6, or 21.2 kg m−2 of crushed concrete waste (CCW) or 1 kg lime m−2. The CCW...

  10. Modelling Sublimation of Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the author reports results in their efforts to model sublimation of carbon dioxide and the associated kinetics order and parameter estimation issues in their model. They have offered the reader two sets of data and several approaches to determine the rate of sublimation of a piece of solid dry ice. They presented several models…

  11. Simulation of an integrated gasification combined cycle with chemical-looping combustion and carbon dioxide sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiménez Álvaro, Ángel; López Paniagua, Ignacio; González Fernández, Celina; Rodríguez Martín, Javier; Nieto Carlier, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A chemical-looping combustion based integrated gasification combined cycle is simulated. • The energetic performance of the plant is analyzed. • Different hydrogen-content synthesis gases are under study. • Energy savings accounting carbon dioxide sequestration and storage are quantified. • A notable increase on thermal efficiency up to 7% is found. - Abstract: Chemical-looping combustion is an interesting technique that makes it possible to integrate power generation from fuels combustion and sequestration of carbon dioxide without energy penalty. In addition, the combustion chemical reaction occurs with a lower irreversibility compared to a conventional combustion, leading to attain a somewhat higher overall thermal efficiency in gas turbine systems. This paper provides results about the energetic performance of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant based on chemical-looping combustion of synthesis gas. A real understanding of the behavior of this concept of power plant implies a complete thermodynamic analysis, involving several interrelated aspects as the integration of energy flows between the gasifier and the combined cycle, the restrictions in relation with heat balances and chemical equilibrium in reactors and the performance of the gas turbines and the downstream steam cycle. An accurate thermodynamic modeling is required for the optimization of several design parameters. Simulations to evaluate the energetic efficiency of this chemical-looping-combustion based power plant under diverse working conditions have been carried out, and a comparison with a conventional integrated gasification power plant with precombustion capture of carbon dioxide has been made. Two different synthesis gas compositions have been tried to check its influence on the results. The energy saved in carbon capture and storage is found to be significant and even notable, inducing an improvement of the overall power plant thermal efficiency of

  12. Intersection carbon monoxide modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamurs, J.

    1990-01-01

    In this note the author discusses the need for better air quality mobile source models near roadways and intersections. To develop the improved models, a better understanding of emissions and their relation to ambient concentrations is necessary. The database for the modal model indicates that vehicles do have different emission levels for different engine operating modes. If the modal approach is used information is needed on traffic signal phasing, queue lengths, delay times, acceleration rates, deceleration rates, capacity, etc. Dispersion estimates using current air quality models may be inaccurate because the models do not take into account intersecting traffic streams, multiple buildings of varying setbacks, height, and spacing

  13. A "high severity" spruce beetle outbreak in Wyoming causes moderate-severity carbon cycle perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, E.; Frank, J. M.; Speckman, H. N.; Bradford, J. B.; Ryan, M. G.; Massman, W. J.; Hawbaker, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    Bark beetle outbreaks in Western North American forests are often considered a high-severity disturbance from a carbon (C) cycling perspective, but field measurements that quantify impacts on C dynamics are very limited. Often, factors out of the researcher's control complicate the separation of beetle impacts from other drivers of C cycling variability and restrict statistical inference. Fortuitously, we had four years of pre-spruce beetle outbreak C cycle measurements in a subalpine forest in southeastern Wyoming (Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments Site, or GLEES) and sustained intermittent monitoring for nearly a decade after the outbreak. Here, we synthesize published and unpublished pre- and post-outbreak measurements of key C cycle stocks and fluxes at GLEES. Multiple lines of evidence, including chamber measurements, eddy covariance measurements, and tracking of soil and forest floor C pools over time, point to the GLEES outbreak as a moderate-severity disturbance for C loss to the atmosphere, despite 70% to 80% of overstory tree death. Reductions in NEE were short-lived and the forest quickly returned to a carbon-neutral state, likely driven by an uptick in understory growth. Effect of mortality on the C cycle was asymmetrical, with a 50% reduction in net carbon uptake (NEE) two years into the outbreak, yet no measureable change in either ecosystem or growing season soil respiration. A small pulse in soil respiration occurred but was only detectable during the winter and amounted to < 10% of NEE. Possible reasons for the lack of measureable respiration response are discussed with emphasis on lessons learned for monitoring and modeling future outbreaks. We suggest a comprehensive assessment and definition of "moderate-severity" disturbances for Western forests and suggest that all tree mortality events may not be high-severity when it comes to C fluxes.

  14. What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    House, Joanna I; Knorr, Wolfgang; Cornell, Sarah E; Prentice, I Colin; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M; Harris, Glen R; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A

    2008-01-01

    Global policy targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are being negotiated. The amount of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is controlled by carbon cycle processes in the ocean and on land. These processes are themselves affected by climate. The resulting 'climate-carbon cycle feedback' has recently been quantified, but the policy implications have not. Using a scheme to emulate the range of state-of-the-art model results for climate feedback strength, including the modelled range of climate sensitivity and other key uncertainties, we analyse recent global targets. The G8 target of a 50% cut in emissions by 2050 leaves CO 2 concentrations rising rapidly, approaching 1000 ppm by 2300. The Stern Review's proposed 25% cut in emissions by 2050, continuing to an 80% cut, does in fact approach stabilization of CO 2 concentration on a policy-relevant (century) timescale, with most models projecting concentrations between 500 and 600 ppm by 2100. However concentrations continue to rise gradually. Long-term stabilization at 550 ppm CO 2 requires cuts in emissions of 81 to 90% by 2300, and more beyond as a portion of the CO 2 emitted persists for centuries to millennia. Reductions of other greenhouse gases cannot compensate for the long-term effects of emitting CO 2 .

  15. Real Business-cycle Model with Habits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the ability of a real business-cycle model with nonseparabilities in consumption and leisure and external habits both in consumption and leisure to fit the postwar US data. The results indicate a strong but fast-dying habit in leisure, and a somewhat weaker...

  16. Modelling the Krebs cycle and oxidative phosphorylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korla, Kalyani; Mitra, Chanchal K

    2014-01-01

    The Krebs cycle and oxidative phosphorylation are the two most important sets of reactions in a eukaryotic cell that meet the major part of the total energy demands of a cell. In this paper, we present a computer simulation of the coupled reactions using open source tools for simulation. We also show that it is possible to model the Krebs cycle with a simple black box with a few inputs and outputs. However, the kinetics of the internal processes has been modelled using numerical tools. We also show that the Krebs cycle and oxidative phosphorylation together can be combined in a similar fashion - a black box with a few inputs and outputs. The Octave script is flexible and customisable for any chosen set-up for this model. In several cases, we had no explicit idea of the underlying reaction mechanism and the rate determining steps involved, and we have used the stoichiometric equations that can be easily changed as and when more detailed information is obtained. The script includes the feedback regulation of the various enzymes of the Krebs cycle. For the electron transport chain, the pH gradient across the membrane is an essential regulator of the kinetics and this has been modelled empirically but fully consistent with experimental results. The initial conditions can be very easily changed and the simulation is potentially very useful in a number of cases of clinical importance.

  17. CFTSIM-ITER dynamic fuel cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busigin, A.; Gierszewski, P.

    1998-01-01

    Dynamic system models have been developed for specific tritium systems with considerable detail and for integrated fuel cycles with lesser detail (e.g. D. Holland, B. Merrill, Analysis of tritium migration and deposition in fusion reactor systems, Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium Eng. Problems of Fusion Research (1981); M.A. Abdou, E. Vold, C. Gung, M. Youssef, K. Shin, DT fuel self-sufficiency in fusion reactors, Fusion Technol. (1986); G. Spannagel, P. Gierszewski, Dynamic tritium inventory of a NET/ITER fuel cycle with lithium salt solution blanket, Fusion Eng. Des. (1991); W. Kuan, M.A. Abdou, R.S. Willms, Dynamic simulation of a proposed ITER tritium processing system, Fusion Technol. (1995)). In order to provide a tool to understand and optimize the behavior of the ITER fuel cycle, a dynamic fuel cycle model called CFTSIM is under development. The CFTSIM code incorporates more detailed ITER models, specifically for the important isotope separation system, and also has an easier-to-use graphical interface. This paper provides an overview of CFTSIM Version 1.0. The models included are those with significant and varying tritium inventories over a test campaign: fueling, plasma and first wall, pumping, fuel cleanup, isotope separation and storage. An illustration of the results is shown. (orig.)

  18. Deep water convection and biogeochemical cycling of carbon in the Northern North Atlantic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, E.; Gissel Nielsen, T.; Lundsgaard, C.; Bendtsen, J.

    2001-01-01

    production and export of DOC (Dissolved Organic Carbon) and the role of UV radiation on biological productivity and DOC mineralization are in focus. The biogeochemical results are implemented in general circulation models in order to evaluate the role of the studied processes on the oceanic carbon cycling. (LN)

  19. Can we bet on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C target even under strong carbon cycle feedbacks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Yokohata, T.; Emori, S.; Hanaoka, T.

    2015-12-01

    Negative emission technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (BioCCS) play an ever more crucial role in meeting the 2°C stabilization target. However, such technologies are currently at their infancy and their future penetrations may fall short of the scale required to stabilize the warming. Furthermore, the overshoot in the mid-century prior to a full realization of negative emissions would give rise to a risk because such a temporal but excessive warming above 2°C might amplify itself by strengthening climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. It has not been extensively assessed yet how carbon cycle feedbacks might play out during the overshoot in the context of negative emissions. This study explores how 2°C stabilization pathways, in particular those which undergo overshoot, can be influenced by carbon cycle feedbacks and asks their climatic and economic consequences. We compute 2°C stabilization emissions scenarios under a cost-effectiveness principle, in which the total abatement costs are minimized such that the global warming is capped at 2°C. We employ a reduced-complexity model, the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate model (ACC2), which comprises a box model of the global carbon cycle, simple parameterizations of the atmospheric chemistry, and a land-ocean energy balance model. The total abatement costs are estimated from the marginal abatement cost functions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and BC.Our preliminary results show that, if carbon cycle feedbacks turn out to be stronger than what is known today, it would incur substantial abatement costs to keep up with the 2°C stabilization goal. Our results also suggest that it would be less expensive in the long run to plan for a 2°C stabilization pathway by considering strong carbon cycle feedbacks because it would cost more if we correct the emission pathway in the mid-century to adjust for unexpectedly large carbon cycle feedbacks during overshoot. Furthermore, our

  20. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  1. A model for global cycling of tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  2. Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anisa Caja

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

  3. Viral impacts on microbial carbon cycling in thawing permafrost soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trubl, G. G.; Roux, S.; Bolduc, B.; Jang, H. B.; Emerson, J. B.; Solonenko, N.; Li, F.; Solden, L. M.; Vik, D. R.; Wrighton, K. C.; Saleska, S. R.; Sullivan, M. B.; Rich, V. I.

    2017-12-01

    Permafrost contains 30-50% of global soil carbon (C) and is rapidly thawing. While the fate of this C is unknown, it will be shaped in part by microbes and their associated viruses, which modulate host activities via mortality and metabolic control. To date, viral research in soils has been outpaced by that in aquatic environments, due to the technical challenges of accessing viruses as well as the dramatic physicochemical heterogeneity in soils. Here, we describe advances in soil viromics from our research on permafrost-associated soils, and their implications for associated terrestrial C cycling. First, we optimized viral resuspension-DNA extraction methods for a range of soil types. Second, we applied cutting-edge viral-specific informatics methods to recover viral populations, define their gene content, connect them to potential hosts, and analyze their relationships to environmental parameters. A total of 781 viral populations were recovered from size-fractionated virus samples of three soils along a permafrost thaw gradient. Ecological analyses revealed endemism as recovered viral populations were largely unique to each habitat and unlike those in aquatic communities. Genome- and network-based classification assigned these viruses into 226 viral clusters (VCs; genus-level taxonomy), 55% of which were novel. This increases the number of VCs by a third and triples the number of soil viral populations in the RefSeq database (currently contains 256 VCs and 316 soil viral populations). Genomic analyses revealed 85% of the genes were functionally unknown, though 5% of the annotatable genes contained C-related auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs; e.g. glycoside hydrolases). Using sequence-based features and microbial population genomes, we were able to in silico predict hosts for 30% of the viral populations. The identified hosts spanned 3 phyla and 6 genera but suggested these viruses have species-specific host ranges as >80% of hosts for a given virus were in the same

  4. Limit Cycles in Predator-Prey Models

    OpenAIRE

    Puchuri Medina, Liliana

    2017-01-01

    The classic Lotka-Volterra model belongs to a family of differential equations known as “Generalized Lotka-Volterra”, which is part of a classification of four models of quadratic fields with center. These models have been studied to address the Hilbert infinitesimal problem, which consists in determine the number of limit cycles of a perturbed hamiltonian system with center. In this work, we first present an alternative proof of the existence of centers in Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models...

  5. Uncertainty in climate-carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris

    2003-01-01

    Carbon-cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century, with a potentially large positive feedback coming from the release of carbon from soils as global temperatures increase. The magnitude of this feedback and whether or not it drives the terrestrial carbon cycle to become a net source of carbon dioxide during the next century depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Observed global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and its response to naturally occurring climate anomalies, is used to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in our coupled climate-carbon-cycle GCM. This constraint is used to quantify some of the uncertainties in predictions of future CO 2 levels. The uncertainty is large, emphasizing the importance of carbon-cycle research with respect to future climate change predictions

  6. Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; Ma, Shuang; Stacy, Mark; Shi, Zheng; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Luo, Yiqi

    2018-03-01

    The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon-flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux- versus pool-based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data-model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux-related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool-related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast-turnover pools to various CO2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow-turnover pools. Our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.

  7. Criterion 5: Maintenance of forest contributions to global carbon cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; Francisco X. Aguilar; Nianfu Song; Susan I. Stewart; David J. Nowak; Dale D. Gormanson; W. Keith Moser; Sherri Wormstead; Eric J. Greenfield

    2012-01-01

    Northern forests cover more than 42 percent of the region and are enormous reservoirs of carbon. Through photosynthesis, live trees emit oxygen in exchange for carbon dioxide they pull from the atmosphere. As a tree grows it stores carbon in wood above and below ground, and sequestered carbon comprises about half of its dry weight. Dead trees and down logs are also...

  8. Optimization of a recompression supercritical carbon dioxide cycle for an innovative central receiver solar power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reyes-Belmonte, M.A.; Sebastián, A.; Romero, M.; González-Aguilar, J.

    2016-01-01

    Peculiar thermodynamic properties of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) when it is held at or above its critical condition (stated as supercritical CO 2 or sCO 2 ) have attracted the attention of many researchers. Its excellent thermophysical properties at medium-to-moderate temperature range have made it to be considered as the alternative working fluid for next power plant generation. Among those applications, future nuclear reactors, solar concentrated thermal energy or waste energy recovery have been shown as the most promising ones. In this paper, a recompression sCO 2 cycle for a solar central particles receiver application has been optimized, observing net cycle efficiency close to 50%. However, small changes on cycle parameters such as working temperatures, recuperators efficiencies or mass flow distribution between low and high temperature recuperators were found to drastically modify system overall efficiency. In order to mitigate these uncertainties, an optimization analysis based on recuperators effectiveness definition was performed observing that cycle efficiency could lie among 40%–50% for medium-to-moderate temperature range of the studied application (630 °C–680 °C). Due to the lack of maturity of current sCO 2 technologies and no power production scale demonstrators, cycle boundary conditions based on the solar application and a detailed literature review were chosen. - Highlights: • Mathematical modelling description for recompression sCO 2 cycle. • Split fraction and recuperators effectiveness effect into sCO 2 cycle performance. • Optimization methodology of sCO 2 cycle for an innovative solar central receiver. • Power generation using particles central receiver.

  9. The Information Warfare Life Cycle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett van Niekerk

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Information warfare (IW is a dynamic and developing concept, which constitutes a number of disciplines. This paper aims to develop a life cycle model for information warfare that is applicable to all of the constituent disciplines. The model aims to be scalable and applicable to civilian and military incidents where information warfare tactics are employed. Existing information warfare models are discussed, and a new model is developed from the common aspects of these existing models. The proposed model is then applied to a variety of incidents to test its applicability and scalability. The proposed model is shown to be applicable to multiple disciplines of information warfare and is scalable, thus meeting the objectives of the model.

  10. The Information Warfare Life Cycle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett van Niekerk

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Information warfare (IW is a dynamic and developing concept, which constitutes a number of disciplines. This paper aims to develop a life cycle model for information warfare that is applicable to all of the constituent disciplines. The model aims to be scalable and applicable to civilian and military incidents where information warfare tactics are employed. Existing information warfare models are discussed, and a new model is developed from the common aspects of these existing models. The proposed model is then applied to a variety of incidents to test its applicability and scalability. The proposed model is shown to be applicable to multiple disciplines of information warfare and is scalable, thus meeting the objectives of the model.

  11. Role of the marine biosphere in the global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longhurst, A.R.

    1991-01-01

    The geographical disequilibrium of our planet is due mainly to carbon sequestration by marine organisms over geological time. Changes in atmospheric CO 2 during interglacial-glacial transitions require biological sequestration of carbon in the oceans. Nutrient-limited export flux from new production in surface waters is the key process in this sequestrian. The most common model for export flux ignores potentially important nutrient sources and export mechanisms. Export flux occurs as a result of biological processes whose complexity appears not to be accommodated by the principal classes of simulation models, this being especially true for food webs dominated by single-celled protists whose trophic function is more dispersed than among the multicelled metazoa. The fashionable question concerning a hypothetical 'missing sink' for CO 2 emissions is unanswerable because of imprecision in our knowledge of critical flux rates. This question also diverts attention from more relevant studies of how the biological pump may be perturbed by climatic consequences of CO 2 emissions. Under available scenarios for climate change, such responses may seem more likely to reinforce, rather than mitigate, the rate of increase of atmospheric CO 2

  12. Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillett, Nathan P; Matthews, H Damon

    2010-01-01

    Greenhouse gases other than CO 2 make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO 2 emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO 2 following a unit mass emission, is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol, and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon-climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by ∼ 20% in coupled carbon-climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 x 1990 emissions, due to a warming-induced release of CO 2 from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model, but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases, and we suggest that the carbon-climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied.

  13. Recent trends, drivers, and projections of carbon cycle processes in forests and grasslands of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domke, G. M.; Williams, C. A.; Birdsey, R.; Pendall, E.

    2017-12-01

    In North America forest and grassland ecosystems play a major role in the carbon cycle. Here we present the latest trends and projections of United States and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, and flows in the context of interactions with global scale budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged grassland and forest ecosystems. We describe recent trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in these ecosystems as well as the carbon dynamics associated with land use and land cover change. We also highlight carbon management science and tools for informing decisions and opportunities for improving carbon measurements, observations, and projections in forests and grasslands.

  14. Modeling and analysis of advanced binary cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gawlik, K.

    1997-12-31

    A computer model (Cycle Analysis Simulation Tool, CAST) and a methodology have been developed to perform value analysis for small, low- to moderate-temperature binary geothermal power plants. The value analysis method allows for incremental changes in the levelized electricity cost (LEC) to be determined between a baseline plant and a modified plant. Thermodynamic cycle analyses and component sizing are carried out in the model followed by economic analysis which provides LEC results. The emphasis of the present work is on evaluating the effect of mixed working fluids instead of pure fluids on the LEC of a geothermal binary plant that uses a simple Organic Rankine Cycle. Four resources were studied spanning the range of 265{degrees}F to 375{degrees}F. A variety of isobutane and propane based mixtures, in addition to pure fluids, were used as working fluids. This study shows that the use of propane mixtures at a 265{degrees}F resource can reduce the LEC by 24% when compared to a base case value that utilizes commercial isobutane as its working fluid. The cost savings drop to 6% for a 375{degrees}F resource, where an isobutane mixture is favored. Supercritical cycles were found to have the lowest cost at all resources.

  15. Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

  16. Carbon-nitrogen-water interactions: is model parsimony fruitful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puertes, Cristina; González-Sanchis, María; Lidón, Antonio; Bautista, Inmaculada; Lull, Cristina; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    It is well known that carbon and nitrogen cycles are highly intertwined and both should be explained through the water balance. In fact, in water-controlled ecosystems nutrient deficit is related to this water scarcity. For this reason, the present study compares the capability of three models in reproducing the interaction between the carbon and nitrogen cycles and the water cycle. The models are BIOME-BGCMuSo, LEACHM and a simple carbon-nitrogen model coupled to the hydrological model TETIS. Biome-BGCMuSo and LEACHM are two widely used models that reproduce the carbon and nitrogen cycles adequately. However, their main limitation is that these models are quite complex and can be too detailed for watershed studies. On the contrary, the TETIS nutrient sub-model is a conceptual model with a vertical tank distribution over the active soil depth, dividing it in two layers. Only the input of the added litter and the losses due to soil respiration, denitrification, leaching and plant uptake are considered as external fluxes. Other fluxes have been neglected. The three models have been implemented in an experimental plot of a semi-arid catchment (La Hunde, East of Spain), mostly covered by holm oak (Quercus ilex). Plant transpiration, soil moisture and runoff have been monitored daily during nearly two years (26/10/2012 to 30/09/2014). For the same period, soil samples were collected every two months and taken to the lab in order to obtain the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, microbial biomass carbon, ammonium and nitrate. In addition, between field trips soil samples were placed in PVC tubes with resin traps and were left incubating (in situ buried cores). Thus, mineralization and nitrification accumulated fluxes for two months, were obtained. The ammonium and nitrate leaching accumulated for two months were measured using ion-exchange resin cores. Soil respiration was also measured every field trip. Finally, water samples deriving from runoff, were collected

  17. Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun

    2017-12-01

    This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

  18. Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucht Wolfgang

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP and heterotrophic respiration (Rh during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release, was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

  19. CO{sub 2} capture behavior of shell during calcination/carbonation cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Y.J.; Zhao, C.S.; Chen, H.C.; Duan, L.B.; Chen, X.P. [School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing (China)

    2009-08-15

    The cyclic carbonation performances of shells as CO{sub 2} sorbents were investigated during multiple calcination/carbonation cycles. The carbonation kinetics of the shell and limestone are similar since they both exhibit a fast kinetically controlled reaction regime and a diffusion controlled reaction regime, but their carbonation rates differ between these two regions. Shell achieves the maximum carbonation conversion for carbonation at 680-700 C. The mactra veneriformis shell and mussel shell exhibit higher carbonation conversions than limestone after several cycles at the same reaction conditions. The carbonation conversion of scallop shell is slightly higher than that of limestone after a series of cycles. The calcined shell appears more porous than calcined limestone, and possesses more pores >230 nm, which allow large CO{sub 2} diffusion-carbonation reaction rates and higher conversion due to the increased surface area of the shell. The pores of the shell that are greater than 230 nm do not sinter significantly. The shell has more sodium ions than limestone, which probably leads to an improvement in the cyclic carbonation performance during the multiple calcination/carbonation cycles. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  20. Nanotoxicity and Life Cycle Assessment: First attempt towards the determination of characterization factors for carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, Gonzalo; Zimmermann, Benedikt; Weil, Marcel

    2014-08-01

    Carbon materials, whether at macro, micro or at nanoscale, play an important role in the battery industry, as they can be used as electrodes, electrode enhancers, bipolar separators, or current collectors. When conducting a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of novel batteries manufacturing processes, we also need to consider the fate of potentially emitted carbon based nanomaterials. However, the knowledge generated in the last decade regarding the behavior of such materials in the environment and its toxicological effects has yet to be included in the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodologies. Conventional databases of chemical products (e.g. ECHA, ECOTOX) offer little information regarding engineered nanomaterials (ENM). It is thus necessary to go one step further and compile physicochemical and toxicological data directly from scientific literature. Such studies do not only differ in their results, but also in their methodologies, and several calls have been made towards a more consistent approach that would allow us model the fate of ENM in the environment as well as their potentially harmful effects. Trying to overcome these limitations we have developed a tool based on Microsoft Excel® combining several methods for the estimation of physicochemical properties of carbon nanotubes (CNT). The information generated with this tool is combined with degradation rates and toxicological data consistent with the methods followed by the USEtox methodology. Thus, it is possible to calculate the characterization factors of CNTs and integrate them as a first proxy in future LCA of products including these ENM.

  1. Nanotoxicity and Life Cycle Assessment: First attempt towards the determination of characterization factors for carbon nanotubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, Gonzalo; Weil, Marcel; Zimmermann, Benedikt

    2014-01-01

    Carbon materials, whether at macro, micro or at nanoscale, play an important role in the battery industry, as they can be used as electrodes, electrode enhancers, bipolar separators, or current collectors. When conducting a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of novel batteries manufacturing processes, we also need to consider the fate of potentially emitted carbon based nanomaterials. However, the knowledge generated in the last decade regarding the behavior of such materials in the environment and its toxicological effects has yet to be included in the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodologies. Conventional databases of chemical products (e.g. ECHA, ECOTOX) offer little information regarding engineered nanomaterials (ENM). It is thus necessary to go one step further and compile physicochemical and toxicological data directly from scientific literature. Such studies do not only differ in their results, but also in their methodologies, and several calls have been made towards a more consistent approach that would allow us model the fate of ENM in the environment as well as their potentially harmful effects. Trying to overcome these limitations we have developed a tool based on Microsoft Excel ® combining several methods for the estimation of physicochemical properties of carbon nanotubes (CNT). The information generated with this tool is combined with degradation rates and toxicological data consistent with the methods followed by the USEtox methodology. Thus, it is possible to calculate the characterization factors of CNTs and integrate them as a first proxy in future LCA of products including these ENM

  2. Soil fauna: key to new carbon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filser, Juliane; Faber, Jack H.; Tiunov, Alexei V.; Brussaard, Lijbert; Frouz, Jan; De Deyn, Gerlinde; Uvarov, Alexei V.; Berg, Matty P.; Lavelle, Patrick; Loreau, Michel; Wall, Diana H.; Querner, Pascal; Eijsackers, Herman; José Jiménez, Juan

    2016-11-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) is key to maintaining soil fertility, mitigating climate change, combatting land degradation, and conserving above- and below-ground biodiversity and associated soil processes and ecosystem services. In order to derive management options for maintaining these essential services provided by soils, policy makers depend on robust, predictive models identifying key drivers of SOM dynamics. Existing SOM models and suggested guidelines for future SOM modelling are defined mostly in terms of plant residue quality and input and microbial decomposition, overlooking the significant regulation provided by soil fauna. The fauna controls almost any aspect of organic matter turnover, foremost by regulating the activity and functional composition of soil microorganisms and their physical-chemical connectivity with soil organic matter. We demonstrate a very strong impact of soil animals on carbon turnover, increasing or decreasing it by several dozen percent, sometimes even turning C sinks into C sources or vice versa. This is demonstrated not only for earthworms and other larger invertebrates but also for smaller fauna such as Collembola. We suggest that inclusion of soil animal activities (plant residue consumption and bioturbation altering the formation, depth, hydraulic properties and physical heterogeneity of soils) can fundamentally affect the predictive outcome of SOM models. Understanding direct and indirect impacts of soil fauna on nutrient availability, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions and plant growth is key to the understanding of SOM dynamics in the context of global carbon cycling models. We argue that explicit consideration of soil fauna is essential to make realistic modelling predictions on SOM dynamics and to detect expected non-linear responses of SOM dynamics to global change. We present a decision framework, to be further developed through the activities of KEYSOM, a European COST Action, for when mechanistic SOM models

  3. Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, C.M.; Middelburg, J.J.; Caraco, N.

    2005-01-01

    The carbon burial in vegetated sediments, ignored in past assessments of carbon burial in the ocean, was evaluated using a bottom-up approach derived from upscaling a compilation of published individual estimates of carbon burial in vegetated habitats (seagrass meadows, salt marshes and mangrove

  4. Improving carbon model phenology using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exrayat, Jean-François; Smallman, T. Luke; Bloom, A. Anthony; Williams, Mathew

    2015-04-01

    Carbon cycle dynamics is significantly impacted by ecosystem phenology, leading to substantial seasonal and inter-annual variation in the global carbon balance. Representing inter-annual variability is key for predicting the response of the terrestrial ecosystem to climate change and disturbance. Existing terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) often struggle to accurately simulate observed inter-annual variability. TEMs often use different phenological models based on plant functional type (PFT) assumptions. Moreover, due to a high level of computational overhead in TEMs they are unable to take advantage of globally available datasets to calibrate their models. Here we describe the novel CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) for data assimilation. CARDAMOM is used to calibrate the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon version 2 (DALEC2) model using Bayes' Theorem within a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC). CARDAMOM provides a framework which combines knowledge from observations, such as remotely sensed LAI, and heuristic information in the form of Ecological and Dynamical Constraints (EDCs). The EDCs are representative of real world processes and constrain parameter interdependencies and constrain carbon dynamics. We used CARDAMOM to bring together globally spanning datasets of LAI and the DALEC2 and DALEC2-GSI models. These analyses allow us to investigate the sensitivity ecosystem processes to the representation of phenology. DALEC2 uses an analytically solved model of phenology which is invariant between years. In contrast DALEC2-GSI uses a growing season index (GSI) calculated as a function of temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and photoperiod to calculate bud-burst and leaf senescence, allowing the model to simulate inter-annual variability in response to climate. Neither model makes any PFT assumptions about the phenological controls of a given ecosystem, allowing the data alone to determine the impact of the meteorological

  5. Carbon dioxide seasonal cycle in the sea euphotic zone - a study in the Sargasso Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchal, O.

    1996-01-01

    Between 1750 and 1990, the human activities (mainly fossil carbon combustion and deforestation) have lead to an increase of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the carbon dioxide actively takes part to the greenhouse effect and then to the energetic balance of the climatic system. The study which is carried out consists of the forecasting of the CO 2 future concentrations in the atmosphere (from 10, 100 years). The chosen site (BATS: Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study) is located in the Sargasso Sea. The factors leading to seasonal variations have been determined. Several bio-geochemical models have been developed in order to on the one hand simulate the seasonal dynamics of the mixture layer observed in the Bats site and on the other hand explain the main characteristics of the observed phytoplankton seasonal cycle, of its nutriments and of the dissolved oxygen. (O.M.)

  6. High-cycle electromechanical aging of dielectric elastomer actuators with carbon-based electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Saint-Aubin, C. A.; Rosset, S.; Schlatter, S.; Shea, H.

    2018-07-01

    We present high-cycle aging tests of dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) based on silicone elastomers, reporting on the time-evolution of actuation strain and of electrode resistance over millions of cycles. We compare several types of carbon-based electrodes, and for the first time show how the choice of electrode has a dramatic influence on DEA aging. An expanding circle DEA configuration is used, consisting of a commercial silicone membrane with the following electrodes: commercial carbon grease applied manually, solvent-diluted carbon grease applied by stamping (pad printing), loose carbon black powder applied manually, carbon black powder suspension applied by inkjet-printing, and conductive silicone-carbon composite applied by stamping. The silicone-based DEAs with manually applied carbon grease electrodes show the shortest lifetime of less than 105 cycles at 5% strain, while the inkjet-printed carbon powder and the stamped silicone-carbon composite make for the most reliable devices, with lifetimes greater than 107 cycles at 5% strain. These results are valid for the specific dielectric and electrode configurations that were tested: using other dielectrics or electrode formulations would lead to different lifetimes and failure modes. We find that aging (as seen in the change in resistance and in actuation strain versus cycle number) is independent of the actuation frequency from 10 Hz to 200 Hz, and depends on the total accumulated time the DEA spends in an actuated state.

  7. Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

    1990-02-01

    The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

  8. Implications of a More Comprehensive Nitrogen Cycle in a Global Biogeochemical Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Six, K. D.; Ilyina, T.

    2016-02-01

    Nitrogen plays a crucial role for nearly all living organisms in the Earth system. Changes in the marine nitrogen cycle not only alter the marine biota, but will also have an impact on the marine carbon cycle and, in turn, on climate due to the close coupling of the carbon-nitrogen cycle. The understanding of processes and controls of the marine nitrogen cycle is therefore a prerequisite to reduce uncertainties in the prediction of future climate. Nevertheless, most ocean biogeochemical components of modern Earth system models have a rather simplistic representation of marine N-cycle mainly focusing on nitrate. Here we present results of the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC) as part of the MPI-ESM which was extended by a prognostic representation of ammonium and nitrite to resolve important processes of the marine N-cycle such as nitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox). Additionally, we updated the production of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse gas, allowing for two sources from oxidation of ammonium (nitrification) and from reduction of nitrite (nitrifier-denitrification) at low oxygen concentrations. Besides an extended model data comparison we discuss the following aspects of the N-cycle by model means: (1) contribution of anammox to the loss of fixed nitrogen, and (2) production and emission of marine nitrous oxide.

  9. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  10. Investigating the Early Carbon Cycle Using Carbonaceous Inclusions and Dissolved Carbon in Detrital Zircon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, E. A.; Boehnke, P.; Harrison, M.; Mao, W. L.

    2015-12-01

    Because the terrestrial rock record extends only to ~4 Ga and older materials thus far identified are limited to detrital zircons, information about volatile abundances and cycles on early Earth is limited. Carbon, for instance, plays an important role not only in the modern biosphere but also in deep recycling of materials between the crust and mantle. We are investigating the record of carbon abundance and origin in Hadean zircons from Jack Hills (W. Australia) using two main approaches. First, carbon may partition into the zircon structure at trace levels during crystallization from a magma, and better understanding of this partitioning behavior will allow for zircon's use as a monitor of magmatic carbon contents. We have measured carbon abundances in zircon from a variety of igneous rocks (gabbro; I-, A-, and S-type granitoids) via SIMS and found that although abundances are typically low (average raw 12C/30Si ~ 1x10-6), S-type granite zircons can reach a factor of 1000 over this background. Around 10% of Hadean zircons investigated show similar enrichments, consistent with other evidence for the derivation of many Jack Hills zircons from S-type granitoids and with the establishment of modern-level carbon abundances in the crust by ca. 4.2 Ga. Diamond and graphite inclusions reported in the Jack Hills zircons by previous studies proved to be contamination by polishing debris, leaving the true abundance of these materials in the population uncertain. On a second front, we have identified and investigated primary carbonaceous inclusions in these zircons. From a population of over 10,000 Jack Hills zircons, we identified one concordant 4.10±0.01 Ga zircon that contains primary graphite inclusions (so interpreted due to their enclosure in a crack-free zircon host as shown by transmission X-ray microscopy and their crystal habit). Their δ13CPDB of -24±5‰ is consistent with a biogenic origin and, in the absence of a likely inorganic mechanism to produce such a

  11. Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program. The role of tropical forests on the world carbon cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, S.; Lugo, A. E.; Liegel, B. [eds.

    1980-08-01

    Tropical forests constitute about half of the world's forest and are characterized by rapid rates of organic matter turnover and high storages of organic matter. Tropical forests are considered to be one of the most significant terrestrial elements in the equation that balances the carbon cycle of the world. As discussed in the paper by Tosi, tropical and subtropical latitudes are more complex in terms of climate and vegetation composition than temperate and boreal latitudes. The implications of the complexity of the tropics and the disregard of this complexity by many scientists is made evident in the paper by Brown and Lugo which shows that biomass estimates for tropical ecosystems have been overestimated by at least 100%. The paper by Brown shows that that rates of succession in the tropics are extremely rapid in terms of the ability of moist and wet forests to accumulate organic matter. Yet, in arid tropical Life Zones succession is slow. This leads to the idea that the question of whether tropical forests are sinks or sources of carbon must be analyzed in relation to Life Zones and to intensities of human activity in these Zones. The paper by Lugo presents conceptual models to illustrate this point and the paper by Tosi shows how land uses in the tropics also correspond to Life Zone characteristics. The ultimate significance of land use to the question of the carbon balance in a large region is addressed in the paper by Detwiler and Hall.

  12. Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Babel

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

  13. A New Global LAI Product and Its Use for Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. M.; Liu, R.; Ju, W.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    For improving the estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a new time series of the leaf area index (LAI) is generated for the global land surface at 8 km resolution from 1981 to 2012 by combining AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. This product differs from existing LAI products in the following two aspects: (1) the non-random spatial distribution of leaves with the canopy is considered, and (2) the seasonal variation of the vegetation background is included. The non-randomness of the leaf spatial distribution in the canopy is considered using the second vegetation structural parameter named clumping index (CI), which quantifies the deviation of the leaf spatial distribution from the random case. Using the MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function product, a global map of CI is produced at 500 m resolution. In our LAI algorithm, CI is used to convert the effective LAI obtained from mono-angle remote sensing into the true LAI, otherwise LAI would be considerably underestimated. The vegetation background is soil in crop, grass and shrub but includes soil, grass, moss, and litter in forests. Through processing a large volume of MISR data from 2000 to 2010, monthly red and near-infrared reflectances of the vegetation background is mapped globally at 1 km resolution. This new LAI product has been validated extensively using ground-based LAI measurements distributed globally. In carbon cycle modeling, the use of CI in addition to LAI allows for accurate separation of sunlit and shaded leaves as an important step in terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration modeling. Carbon flux measurements over 100 sites over the globe are used to validate an ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The validated model is run globally at 8 km resolution for the period from 1981 to 2012 using the LAI product and other spatial datasets. The modeled results suggest that changes in vegetation structure as quantified

  14. Carbon footprint of forest and tree utilization technologies in life cycle approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polgár, András; Pécsinger, Judit

    2017-04-01

    In our research project a suitable method has been developed related the technological aspect of the environmental assessment of land use changes caused by climate change. We have prepared an eco-balance (environmental inventory) to the environmental effects classification in life-cycle approach in connection with the typical agricultural / forest and tree utilization technologies. The use of balances and environmental classification makes possible to compare land-use technologies and their environmental effects per common functional unit. In order to test our environmental analysis model, we carried out surveys in sample of forest stands. We set up an eco-balance of the working systems of intermediate cutting and final harvest in the stands of beech, oak, spruce, acacia, poplar and short rotation energy plantations (willow, poplar). We set up the life-cycle plan of the surveyed working systems by using the GaBi 6.0 Professional software and carried out midpoint and endpoint impact assessment. Out of the results, we applied the values of CML 2001 - Global Warming Potential (GWP 100 years) [kg CO2-Equiv.] and Eco-Indicator 99 - Human health, Climate Change [DALY]. On the basis of the values we set up a ranking of technology. By this, we received the environmental impact classification of the technologies based on carbon footprint. The working systems had the greatest impact on global warming (GWP 100 years) throughout their whole life cycle. This is explained by the amount of carbon dioxide releasing to the atmosphere resulting from the fuel of the technologies. Abiotic depletion (ADP foss) and marine aquatic ecotoxicity (MAETP) emerged also as significant impact categories. These impact categories can be explained by the share of input of fuel and lube. On the basis of the most significant environmental impact category (carbon footprint), we perform the relative life cycle contribution and ranking of each technologies. The technological life cycle stages examined

  15. Technical Report: Investigation of Carbon Cycle Processes within a Managed Landscape: An Ecosystem Manipulation and Isotope Tracer Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffis, Timothy J; Baker, John M; Billmark, Kaycie

    2009-06-01

    The goal of this research is to provide a better scientific understanding of carbon cycle processes within an agricultural landscape characteristic of the Upper Midwest. This project recognizes the need to study processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales to reduce uncertainty in ecosystem and landscape-scale carbon budgets to provide a sound basis for shaping future policy related to carbon management. Specifically, this project has attempted to answer the following questions: 1. Would the use of cover crops result in a shift from carbon neutral to significant carbon gain in corn-soybean rotation ecosystems of the Upper Midwest? 2. Can stable carbon isotope analyses be used to partition ecosystem respiration into its autotrophic and heterotrophic components? 3. Can this partitioning be used to better understand the fate of crop residues to project changes in the soil carbon reservoir? 4. Are agricultural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest carbon neutral, sinks, or sources? Can the proposed measurement and modeling framework help address landscape-scale carbon budget uncertainties and help guide future carbon management policy?

  16. Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

    2018-06-01

    Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

  17. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  18. SONNE: Solar-Based Man-Made Carbon Cycle and the Carbon Dioxide Economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, Detlev [Brandenburg Technical Univ., Berlin (Germany)], e-mail: moe@btu-lc.fta-berlin.de

    2012-06-15

    Humans became a global force in the chemical evolution with respect to climate change by interrupting naturally evolved biogeochemical cycles. However, humans also have all the facilities to turn the 'chemical revolution' into a sustainable chemical evolution. I define a sustainable society as one able to balance the environment, other life forms, and human interactions over an indefinite time period. There is much discussion on 'sustainable chemistry' (often called green chemistry), but, in my understanding, the basic principle, is to transfer matter for energetic and material use only within global cycles, without changing reservoir concentrations above a critical level. With respect to atmospheric pollution, the last unsolved issues (remaining pollutants) are 'greenhouse' gases, namely CO{sub 2}, which contributes to about 70 % of anthropogenically caused global warming (other important gases such as CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O contribute to roughly 25 % of warming; these gases are associated mainly with agricultural activities). The dilemma is given simply by time scales: limits of the 2 deg threshold by 2050 and drastic reduction in global CO{sub 2} emission; that is, the cumulative CO{sub 2} emissions determine atmospheric (and oceanic) CO{sub 2} levels. Because of the large CO{sub 2} residence time in natural reservoirs, in the order of 1000 years in the atmosphere and about 200 000 years for dissolved inorganic carbon-DIC in surface seawater, humans now determine the still unknown relationships of possible climate recovery, irreversible climate change, and future abatement strategies. (Solomon et al. 2009). The percentage not accumulated in the atmosphere must have been taken up by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere as well. Mining and the combustion of fossils fuels now results in the geological reservoir redistribution of carbon close to (or even surpassing) the 'tipping point'. It is assumed that in the near future

  19. Comparative analysis of Goodwin's business cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonova, A. O.; Reznik, S.; Todorov, M. D.

    2016-10-01

    We compare the behavior of solutions of Goodwin's business cycle equation in the form of neutral delay differential equation with fixed delay (NDDE model) and in the form of the differential equations of 3rd, 4th and 5th orders (ODE model's). Such ODE model's (Taylor series expansion of NDDE in powers of θ) are proposed in N. Dharmaraj and K. Vela Velupillai [6] for investigation of the short periodic sawthooth oscillations in NDDE. We show that the ODE's of 3rd, 4th and 5th order may approximate the asymptotic behavior of only main Goodwin's mode, but not the sawthooth modes. If the order of the Taylor series expansion exceeds 5, then the approximate ODE becomes unstable independently of time lag θ.

  20. Modeling closed nuclear fuel cycles processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shmidt, O.V. [A.A. Bochvar All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for Inorganic Materials, Rogova, 5a street, Moscow, 123098 (Russian Federation); Makeeva, I.R. [Zababakhin All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Technical Physics, Vasiliev street 13, Snezhinsk, Chelyabinsk region, 456770 (Russian Federation); Liventsov, S.N. [Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Lenin Avenue, 30, 634050 (Russian Federation)

    2016-07-01

    Computer models of processes are necessary for determination of optimal operating conditions for closed nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) processes. Computer models can be quickly changed in accordance with new and fresh data from experimental research. 3 kinds of process simulation are necessary. First, the VIZART software package is a balance model development used for calculating the material flow in technological processes. VIZART involves taking into account of equipment capacity, transport lines and storage volumes. Secondly, it is necessary to simulate the physico-chemical processes that are involved in the closure of NFC. The third kind of simulation is the development of software that allows the optimization, diagnostics and control of the processes which implies real-time simulation of product flows on the whole plant or on separate lines of the plant. (A.C.)

  1. Models of life: epigenetics, diversity and cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneppen, Kim

    2017-04-01

    This review emphasizes aspects of biology that can be understood through repeated applications of simple causal rules. The selected topics include perspectives on gene regulation, phage lambda development, epigenetics, microbial ecology, as well as model approaches to diversity and to punctuated equilibrium in evolution. Two outstanding features are repeatedly described. One is the minimal number of rules to sustain specific states of complex systems for a long time. The other is the collapse of such states and the subsequent dynamical cycle of situations that restitute the system to a potentially new metastable state.

  2. Synthetic fuel production via carbon neutral cycles with high temperature nuclear reactors as a power source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konarek, E.; Coulas, B.; Sarvinis, J. [Hatch Ltd., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    This paper analyzes a number of carbon neutral cycles, which could be used to produce synthetic hydrocarbon fuels. Synthetic hydrocarbons are produced via the synthesis of Carbon Monoxide and Hydrogen. The . cycles considered will either utilize Gasification processes, or carbon capture as a source of feed material. In addition the cycles will be coupled to a small modular Nuclear Reactor (SMR) as a power and heat source. The goal of this analysis is to reduce or eliminate the need to transport diesel and other fossil fuels to remote regions and to provide a carbon neutral, locally produced hydrocarbon fuel for remote communities. The technical advantages as well as the economic case are discussed for each of the cycles presented. (author)

  3. Synthetic fuel production via carbon neutral cycles with high temperature nuclear reactors as a power source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konarek, E.; Coulas, B.; Sarvinis, J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes a number of carbon neutral cycles, which could be used to produce synthetic hydrocarbon fuels. Synthetic hydrocarbons are produced via the synthesis of Carbon Monoxide and Hydrogen. The . cycles considered will either utilize Gasification processes, or carbon capture as a source of feed material. In addition the cycles will be coupled to a small modular Nuclear Reactor (SMR) as a power and heat source. The goal of this analysis is to reduce or eliminate the need to transport diesel and other fossil fuels to remote regions and to provide a carbon neutral, locally produced hydrocarbon fuel for remote communities. The technical advantages as well as the economic case are discussed for each of the cycles presented. (author)

  4. Lipid Biomarkers and Molecular Carbon Isotopes for Elucidating Carbon Cycling Pathways in Hydrothermal Vents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C. L.; Dai, J.; Campbell, B.; Cary, C.; Sun, M.

    2003-12-01

    . Molecular DNA data from these vent environments indicate that the reversed TCA cycle may be used for CO2 fixation by the epsilon Proteobacteria for chemolithoautotrophic growth. Isotopic fractionation patterns between lipid biomarkers and the bulk organic carbon can provide independent information on this unique biosynthetic pathway.

  5. Multiscale Modeling with Carbon Nanotubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiti, A

    2006-02-21

    Technologically important nanomaterials come in all shapes and sizes. They can range from small molecules to complex composites and mixtures. Depending upon the spatial dimensions of the system and properties under investigation computer modeling of such materials can range from equilibrium and nonequilibrium Quantum Mechanics, to force-field-based Molecular Mechanics and kinetic Monte Carlo, to Mesoscale simulation of evolving morphology, to Finite-Element computation of physical properties. This brief review illustrates some of the above modeling techniques through a number of recent applications with carbon nanotubes: nano electromechanical sensors (NEMS), chemical sensors, metal-nanotube contacts, and polymer-nanotube composites.

  6. A Study on Life Cycle CO2 Emissions of Low-Carbon Building in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su-Hyun Cho

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available There have been much interest and many efforts to control global warming and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions throughout the world. Recently, the Republic of Korea has also increased its GHG reduction goal and searched for an implementation plan. In buildings, for example, there have been technology developments and deployment policies to reduce GHG emissions from a life cycle perspective, covering construction materials, building construction, use of buildings and waste disposal. In particular, Korea’s Green Standard for Energy and Environmental Design is a certification of environmentally-friendly buildings for their energy saving and reduction of environmental pollution throughout their lives. In fact, the demand and adoption of the certification are rising every year. In construction materials and buildings, as a result, an environmentally-friendly aspect has become crucial. The importance of construction material and building development technologies that can reduce environmental load by diminishing GHG emissions in buildings has emerged. Moreover, there has been a rising necessity to verify the GHG reduction effects of buildings. To assess the reduction of carbon emissions in the buildings built with low-carbon construction technologies and materials, therefore, this study estimated life cycle carbon emissions in reference buildings in which general construction materials are used and in low-carbon buildings. For this, the carbon emissions and their reduction from construction materials (especially concrete between conventional products and low-carbon materials were estimated, using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA. After estimating carbon emissions from a building life cycle perspective, their reduction in low-carbon buildings compared to the reference buildings was reviewed. The results found that compared to conventional buildings, low-carbon buildings revealed a 25% decrease in carbon emissions in terms of the reduction of Life Cycle

  7. Life Cycle Analysis of Carbon Flow and Carbon Footprint of Harvested Wood Products of Larix principis-rupprechtii in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Lun

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Larix principis-rupprechtii is a native tree species in North China with a large distribution; and its harvested timbers can be used for producing wood products. This study focused on estimating and comparing carbon flows and carbon footprints of different harvested wood products (HWPs from Larix principis-ruppechtii based on the life cycle analysis (from seedling cultivation to HWP final disposal. Based on our interviews and surveys, the system boundary in this study was divided into three processes: the forestry process, the manufacturing process, and the use and disposal process. By tracking carbon flows of HWPs along the entire life cycle, we found that, for one forest rotation period, a total of 26.81 tC/ha sequestered carbon was transferred into these HWPs, 66.2% of which were still stored in the HWP when the rotation period had ended; however, the HWP carbon storage decreased to 0.25 tC/ha (only 0.9% left in the 100th year after forest plantation. The manufacturing process contributed more than 90% of the total HWP carbon footprint, but it was still smaller than the HWP carbon storage. In terms of the carbon storage and the carbon footprint, construction products had the largest net positive carbon balance compared to furniture and panel products. In addition, HWP are known to have a positive impact on global carbon mitigation because they can store parts of the sequestered carbon for a certain period of time and they have a substitution effect on carbon mitigation. Furthermore, there still exist great opportunities for carbon mitigation from HWPs through the use of cleaner energy and increasing the utilization efficiency of wood fuel.

  8. Carbon amendment stimulates benthic nitrogen cycling during the bioremediation of particulate aquaculture waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Georgina; MacTavish, Thomas; Savage, Candida; Caldwell, Gary S.; Jones, Clifford L. W.; Probyn, Trevor; Eyre, Bradley D.; Stead, Selina M.

    2018-03-01

    The treatment of organic wastes remains one of the key sustainability challenges facing the growing global aquaculture industry. Bioremediation systems based on coupled bioturbation-microbial processing offer a promising route for waste management. We present, for the first time, a combined biogeochemical-molecular analysis of the short-term performance of one such system that is designed to receive nitrogen-rich particulate aquaculture wastes. Using sea cucumbers (Holothuria scabra) as a model bioturbator we provide evidence that adjusting the waste C : N from 5 : 1 to 20 : 1 promoted a shift in nitrogen cycling pathways towards the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA), resulting in net NH4+ efflux from the sediment. The carbon amended treatment exhibited an overall net N2 uptake, whereas the control receiving only aquaculture waste exhibited net N2 production, suggesting that carbon supplementation enhanced nitrogen fixation. The higher NH4+ efflux and N2 uptake was further supported by meta-genome predictions that indicate that organic-carbon addition stimulated DNRA over denitrification. These findings indicate that carbon addition may potentially result in greater retention of nitrogen within the system; however, longer-term trials are necessary to determine whether this nitrogen retention is translated into improved sea cucumber biomass yields. Whether this truly constitutes a remediation process is open for debate as there remains the risk that any increased nitrogen retention may be temporary, with any subsequent release potentially raising the eutrophication risk. Longer and larger-scale trials are required before this approach may be validated with the complexities of the in-system nitrogen cycle being fully understood.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Organic Carbon Cycle at the Land-Ocean Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Cammer, Sarah S.; McIntosh, Hadley A.; Pondell, Christina R.

    2012-05-01

    Estuaries are among the most altered and vulnerable marine ecosystems. These ecosystems will likely continue to deteriorate owing to increased population growth in coastal regions, expected temperature and precipitation changes associated with climate change, and their interaction with each other, leading to serious consequences for the ecological and societal services they provide. A key function of estuaries is the transfer, transformation, and burial of carbon and other biogenic elements exchanged between the land and ocean systems. Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon cycle through anticipated changes to organic matter production in estuaries and through the alteration of carbon transformation and export processes. This review discusses the effects of climate change on processes influencing the cycling of organic carbon in estuaries, including examples from three temperate estuaries in North America. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the connectivity of terrestrial, estuarine, and coastal ocean carbon cycles.

  10. Soil Functional Mapping: A Geospatial Framework for Scaling Soil Carbon Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is dramatically altering biogeochemical cycles in most terrestrial ecosystems, particularly the cycles of water and carbon (C). These changes will affect myriad ecosystem processes of importance, including plant productivity, C exports to aquatic systems, and terrestrial C storage. Soil C storage represents a critical feedback to climate change as soils store more C than the atmosphere and aboveground plant biomass combined. While we know plant and soil C cycling are strongly coupled with soil moisture, substantial unknowns remain regarding how these relationships can be scaled up from soil profiles to ecosystems. This greatly limits our ability to build a process-based understanding of the controls on and consequences of climate change at regional scales. In an effort to address this limitation we: (1) describe an approach to classifying soils that is based on underlying differences in soil functional characteristics and (2) examine the utility of this approach as a scaling tool that honors the underlying soil processes. First, geospatial datasets are analyzed in the context of our current understanding of soil C and water cycling in order to predict soil functional units that can be mapped at the scale of ecosystems or watersheds. Next, the integrity of each soil functional unit is evaluated using available soil C data and mapping units are refined as needed. Finally, targeted sampling is conducted to further differentiate functional units or fill in any data gaps that are identified. Completion of this workflow provides new geospatial datasets that are based on specific soil functions, in this case the coupling of soil C and water cycling, and are well suited for integration with regional-scale soil models. Preliminary results from this effort highlight the advantages of a scaling approach that balances theory, measurement, and modeling.

  11. Corrosion of Structural Materials for Advanced Supercritical Carbon- Dioxide Brayton Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sridharan, Kumar [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2017-05-13

    The supercritical carbon-dioxide (referred to as SC-CO2 hereon) Brayton cycle is being considered for power conversion systems for a number of nuclear reactor concepts, including the sodium fast reactor (SFR), fluoride saltcooled high temperature reactor (FHR), and high temperature gas reactor (HTGR), and several types of small modular reactors (SMR). The SC-CO2 direct cycle gas fast reactor has also been recently proposed. The SC-CO2 Brayton cycle (discussed in Chapter 1) provides higher efficiencies compared to the Rankine steam cycle due to less compression work stemming from higher SC-CO2 densities, and allows for smaller components size, fewer components, and simpler cycle layout. For example, in the case of a SFR using a SC-CO2 Brayton cycle instead of a steam cycle would also eliminate the possibility of sodium-water interactions. The SC-CO2 cycle has a higher efficiency than the helium Brayton cycle, with the additional advantage of being able to operate at lower temperatures and higher pressures. In general, the SC-CO2 Brayton cycle is well-suited for any type of nuclear reactor (including SMR) with core outlet temperature above ~ 500°C in either direct or indirect versions. In all the above applications, materials corrosion in high temperature SC-CO2 is an important consideration, given their expected lifetimes of 20 years or longer. Our discussions with National Laboratories and private industry early on in this project indicated materials corrosion to be one of the significant gaps in the implementation of SC-CO2 Brayton cycle. Corrosion can lead to a loss of effective load-bearing wall thickness of a component and can potentially lead to the generation of oxide particulate debris which can lead to three-body wear in turbomachinery components. Another environmental degradation effect that is rather unique to CO2 environment is the possibility

  12. Modeling the element cycle of aquatic plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asaeda, Takashi

    2007-01-01

    Aquatic plants play an important role in element cycles in wetlands and the efficiency of the process is extremely related to their proportional biomass allocation to above- and belowground organs. Therefore, the framework of most macrophyte productivity models is usually similar with a mass-balance approach consisting of gross production, respiration and mortality losses and the translocation between organs. These growth models are incorporated with decomposition models to evaluate the annual cycle of elements. Perennial emergent macrophytes with a relatively large biomass have a particularly important role in element cycles. Their phenological stages, such as the beginning of hibernation of belowground rhizome systems, emergence of new shoots in spring with resources stocked in the rhizomes, flowering, downward translocation of photosynthetic products later on and then the mortality of the aboveground system in late autumn, depend on the environmental conditions, basically the nutrients, water depth, climatic variations, etc. Although some species retain standing dead shoots for a long time, dead shoots easily fall into water, starting to decompose in the immediate aftermath. However, their decomposition rates in the water are relatively low, causing to accumulate large amounts of organic sediments on the bottom. Together with the deposition of allochthonous suspended matters in the stand, this process decreases the water depth, transforming wetlands gradually into land. The depth of penetration of roots into the sediments to uptake nutrients and water is extremely site specific, however, in water-logged areas, the maximum penetrable depth may be approximately estimated by considering the ability of oxygen transport into the rhizome system. The growth of perennial submerged plants is also estimated by a process similar to that of emergent macrophytes. However, compared with emergent macrophytes, the root system of submerged macrophytes is weaker, and the nutrient

  13. Modeling of a combined cycle power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faridah Mohamad Idris

    2001-01-01

    The combined cycle power plant is a non-linear, closed loop system, which consists of high-pressure (HP) superheater, HP evaporator, HP economizer, low-pressure (LP) evaporator, HP drum, HP deaerator, condenser, HP and LP steam turbine and gas turbine. The two types of turbines in the plant for example the gas turbine and the HP and LP steam turbines operate concurrently to generate power to the plant. The exhaust gas which originate from the combustion chamber drives the gas turbine, after which it flows into the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) to generate superheated steam to be used in driving the HP and LP steam turbines. In this thesis, the combined cycle power plant is modeled at component level using the physical method. Assuming that there is delay in transport, except for the gas turbine system, the mass and heat balances are applied on the components of the plant to derive the governing equations of the components. These time dependent equations, which are of first order differential types, are then solved for the mass and enthalpy of the components. The solutions were simulated using Matlab Simulink using measured plant data. Where necessary there is no plant data available, approximated data were used. The generalized regression neural networks are also used to generate extra sets of simulation data for the HRSG system. Comparisons of the simulation results with its corresponding plant data showed good agreements between the two and indicated that the models developed for the components could be used to represent the combined cycle power plant under study. (author)

  14. Impact of climate change on carbon cycle in freshwater ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kankaala, P.; Ojala, A.; Tulonen, T.; Haapamaeki, J.; Arvola, L. [Helsinki Univ., Lammi (Finland). Lammi Biological Station

    1996-12-31

    The impacts of the expected climate change on Finnish lake ecosystems were studied with the biota of the mesohumic Lake Paeaejaervi, southern Finland. Experimental conditions, from small-scale experiments on single species level to a large-scale ecosystem manipulation, were established to simulate directly the future climate and/or loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area. The experimental studies were accomplished by modelling the carbon flow in the pelagic food web as well as the growth of littoral macrophytes. The main hypothese tested were as follows: As a consequence of the climate change (rising temperature and increasing precipitation) the loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area to the lake will increase. In the pelagic zone this will be first reflected i higher productivity of primary producers and bacteria, but will later affect the entire food chain. Increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and ambient temperature as well as longer growing season will enhance the overall productivity of littoral macrophytes. The higher productivity of the littoral zone will be reflected in the pelagic zone an thus may change the whole ecosystem of the lake

  15. Impact of climate change on carbon cycle in freshwater ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kankaala, P; Ojala, A; Tulonen, T; Haapamaeki, J; Arvola, L [Helsinki Univ., Lammi (Finland). Lammi Biological Station

    1997-12-31

    The impacts of the expected climate change on Finnish lake ecosystems were studied with the biota of the mesohumic Lake Paeaejaervi, southern Finland. Experimental conditions, from small-scale experiments on single species level to a large-scale ecosystem manipulation, were established to simulate directly the future climate and/or loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area. The experimental studies were accomplished by modelling the carbon flow in the pelagic food web as well as the growth of littoral macrophytes. The main hypothese tested were as follows: As a consequence of the climate change (rising temperature and increasing precipitation) the loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area to the lake will increase. In the pelagic zone this will be first reflected i higher productivity of primary producers and bacteria, but will later affect the entire food chain. Increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and ambient temperature as well as longer growing season will enhance the overall productivity of littoral macrophytes. The higher productivity of the littoral zone will be reflected in the pelagic zone an thus may change the whole ecosystem of the lake

  16. Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Duarte

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The carbon burial in vegetated sediments, ignored in past assessments of carbon burial in the ocean, was evaluated using a bottom-up approach derived from upscaling a compilation of published individual estimates of carbon burial in vegetated habitats (seagrass meadows, salt marshes and mangrove forests to the global level and a top-down approach derived from considerations of global sediment balance and a compilation of the organic carbon content of vegeatated sediments. Up-scaling of individual burial estimates values yielded a total carbon burial in vegetated habitats of 111 Tmol C y-1. The total burial in unvegetated sediments was estimated to be 126 Tg C y-1, resulting in a bottom-up estimate of total burial in the ocean of about 244 Tg C y-1, two-fold higher than estimates of oceanic carbon burial that presently enter global carbon budgets. The organic carbon concentrations in vegetated marine sediments exceeds by 2 to 10-fold those in shelf/deltaic sediments. Top-down recalculation of ocean sediment budgets to account for these, previously neglected, organic-rich sediments, yields a top-down carbon burial estimate of 216 Tg C y-1, with vegetated coastal habitats contributing about 50%. Even though vegetated carbon burial contributes about half of the total carbon burial in the ocean, burial represents a small fraction of the net production of these ecosystems, estimated at about 3388 Tg C y-1, suggesting that bulk of the benthic net ecosystem production must support excess respiration in other compartments, such as unvegetated sediments and the coastal pelagic compartment. The total excess organic carbon available to be exported to the ocean is estimated at between 1126 to 3534 Tg C y-1, the bulk of which must be respired in the open ocean. Widespread loss of vegetated coastal habitats must have reduced carbon burial in the ocean by about 30 Tg C y-1, identifying the destruction of these ecosystems as an important loss of CO

  17. Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciais, P.; Peregon, A.; Chevallier, F.; Bopp, L.; Breon, F.M.; Broquet, G.; Luyssaert, S.; Moulin, C.; Paris, J.D.; Poulter, B.; Rivier, L.; Wang, R.

    2014-01-01

    A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policy makers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher

  18. Automation life-cycle cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathmann, Thomas P.; Reeves, Arlinda J.; Cline, Rick; Henrion, Max; Ruokangas, Corinne

    1992-01-01

    The problem domain being addressed by this contractual effort can be summarized by the following list: Automation and Robotics (A&R) technologies appear to be viable alternatives to current, manual operations; Life-cycle cost models are typically judged with suspicion due to implicit assumptions and little associated documentation; and Uncertainty is a reality for increasingly complex problems and few models explicitly account for its affect on the solution space. The objectives for this effort range from the near-term (1-2 years) to far-term (3-5 years). In the near-term, the envisioned capabilities of the modeling tool are annotated. In addition, a framework is defined and developed in the Decision Modelling System (DEMOS) environment. Our approach is summarized as follows: Assess desirable capabilities (structure into near- and far-term); Identify useful existing models/data; Identify parameters for utility analysis; Define tool framework; Encode scenario thread for model validation; and Provide transition path for tool development. This report contains all relevant, technical progress made on this contractual effort.

  19. Effects of climate variability and functional changes on carbon cycling in a temperate deciduous forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Jian

    2013-03-15

    Temperate forests are globally important carbon (C) stocks and sinks. A decadal (1997-2009) trend of increasing C uptake has been observed in an intensively studied temperate deciduous forest, Soroe (Zealand, Denmark). This gave the impetus to investigate the factors controlling the C cycling and the fundamental processes at work in this type of ecosystem. The major objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate to what extent and at what temporal scales, direct climatic variability and functional changes (e.g. changes in the structure or physiological properties) regulate the interannual variability (IAV) in the ecosystem C balance; (2) provide a synthesis of the ecosystem C budget at this site and (3) investigate whether terrestrial ecosystem models can dynamically simulate the trend of increasing C uptake. Data driven analysis, semi-empirical and process-based modelling experiments were performed in a series of studies in order to provide a complete assessment of the carbon storage and allocation within the ecosystem and clarify the mechanisms responsible for the observed variability and trend in the ecosystem C fluxes. Combining all independently estimated ecosystem carbon budget (ECB) datasets and other calculated ECB components based on mass balance equations, a synthesis of the carbon cycling was performed. The results showed that this temperature deciduous forest was moderately productive with both high rates of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Approximately 62% of the gross assimilated carbon was respired by the living plants, while 21% was contributed to the soil as litter production, the latter balancing the total heterotrophic respiration. The remaining 17% was either stored in the plants (mainly as aboveground biomass) or removed from the system as wood production. In general, the ECB component datasets were consistent after the cross-checking. This, together with their characterized uncertainties, can be used in model data fusion

  20. Quantifying, Understanding and Managing the Carbon Cycle in the Next Decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canadell, J.G.; Ciais, P.; Cox, P.; Heimann, M.

    2004-01-01

    The human perturbation of the carbon cycle via the release of fossil CO2 and land use change is now well documented and agreed to be the principal cause of climate change. We address three fundamental research areas that require major development if we were to provide policy relevant knowledge for managing the carbon-climate system over the next few decades. The three research areas are: (1) carbon observations and multiple constraint data assimilation; (2) vulnerability of the carbon-climate system; and (3) carbon sequestration and sustainable development

  1. Simulated and observed trends in key variables of the Arctic marine carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Lauvset, Siv; Petrenko, Dmitry; Pozdnyakov, Dmitry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    For the Arctic region, a thorough monitoring of the marine carbon cycle is important, as the general "polar amplification" of climate change also translates into the biogeochemical realm. As compared to the global ocean, the sink for human-produced CO2 is fairly small in the Arctic Ocean itself. Nevertheless, it is important to follow up this Arctic sink as a further control of the regional carbon budget and to record changes in the marine carbon cycle on the way towards a "blue Arctic". Since observations on the Arctic are rare, the EU FP7 MONARCH-A project tries to enable adequate descriptions of the status and evolution of the Arctic region Earth system components by generating time series of observation datasets and model hindcasts. In terms of the marine carbon cycle, this analysis focuses mainly on the key variables pCO2 and primary productivity. For oceanic pCO2, the comprehensive data-sets SOCAT and LDEO were combined, while measurements of atmospheric CO2 were collected from the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data integration project. Monthly Primary Production fields were retrieved from the sensors MODIS and SeaWiFs. In order to get an overall picture of the behavior and trends of those key variables, in addition the physical-biogeochemical model MICOM-HAMOCC-M was employed. The investigation showed that both oceanic and atmospheric pCO2 are consistent variables which have a regular annual cycle and a similar behaviour all over the Arctic for both model and data. In contrast, primary production shows an irregular annual cycle in both range and form, varying over the Arctic. While a few well distributed measurement stations with continuous observations are sufficient to get a comprehensive picture for consistent variables like pCO2, it is relatively difficult and costly to get a comprehensive record of non-consistent variables. Since the provided data-set for primary production covers a relatively short time-scale, it was neither possible to confidently validate the model

  2. Continental Scale research of the coupled carbon and water cycles in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleugh, Helen; van Gorsel, Eva; Held, Alex; Huete, Alfredo; Karan, Mirko; Liddell, Michael; Phinn, Stuart; Prentice, Colin

    2013-04-01

    It is essential to understand the drivers and processes that regulate uptake and release of carbon and water by the terrestrial biosphere to quantify the sink and source strengths under current climatic conditions. In addition, understanding the consequences of a changing climate on the capacity of the biosphere to sequester carbon by using a certain amount of water and the impacts of disturbances on resilience and thresholds of the terrestrial biosphere is critical. Recently there has been increasing general interest in how human activities may be affecting Australia's natural carbon cycles. Quantification of carbon and water exchanges requires process understanding over long temporal and large spatial scales, but at fine levels of detail. This requires integration of long term, high frequency observations, models and information from process studies and can only be achieved through research infrastructure that can provide easy access to meta-data and data that have been collected in a systematic and standardized way. The Australian Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) provides such nationally networked infrastructure, along with multi-disciplinary capabilities and end-user-focused products to deliver better ways of measuring and estimating Australia's current and future environmental carbon stocks and flows. Multiple Facilities in TERN are studying carbon and water dynamics across a range of distance and time scales. OzFlux, the Australasian arm of the global initiative Fluxnet, is the most obvious deployment of field hardware in TERN with close to 30 flux towers and their associated micrometeorological instrumentation in place around the country, from Central Australia to the Alps, covering ecosystems ranging from rainforest to alpine grasslands to mulga. Intensive monitoring is carried out at the 10 TERN Supersites which carry a suite of environmental instrumentation and perform standardised vegetation, faunal, soil and water monitoring.TERN Aus

  3. Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, Andrew J; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J W; Watson, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W

    2018-05-01

    The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining whether its orbit falls within the circumstellar "habitable zone" of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013 ). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long-term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO 2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation, and biological (microbial) productivity. We developed a model that incorporates key aspects of Earth's short- and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO 2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets result in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 and 2 R ⊕ , the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability. Key Words: Planets-Atmospheres-Carbon dioxide-Biogeochemistry. Astrobiology 18, 469-480.

  4. Ewing Symposium in Honor of Taro Takahashi: The controversial aspects of the contemporary [carbon] cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broecker, Wallace Smith

    2001-12-31

    This Ewing Symposium in honor of Taro Takahashi's work on the carbon cycle was held at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York, on October 26-27, 2000. A program and set of abstracts are appended to this report. A summary of the meeting (included in this report) will be published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles. The theme of the symposium was the magnitude and cause of excess carbon storage on the north temperate continents. Disagreement exists on the relative roles of forest regrowth and fertilization by excess fixed nitrogen and carbon dioxide, as well as the distribution of this storage. Phenomena playing important roles include pre-anthropogenic gradients in carbon dioxide, the so-called rectification effect, uptake and release of carbon dioxide by the ocean, soil nitrogen dynamics, atmospheric carbon-13 gradients, and the role of fire.

  5. Variation in the carbon cycle of the Sevastopol Bay (Black Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orekhova, N. A.; Konovalov, S. K.

    2018-01-01

    Continuous increase in CO2 inventory in the ocean results in dramatic changes in marine biogeochemistry, e.g. acidification. That is why temporal and spatial variabilities in atmospheric pCO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon, including CO2, pH and alkalinity in water, as well as organic and inorganic carbon in bottom sediments have to be studied together making possible to resolve the key features of the carbon cycle transformation. A 30% increase of pCO2 in the Sevastopol Bay for 2008 - 2016 evidences changes in the DIC components ratios and a significant decrease in the ability to absorb atmospheric CO2 by surface waters. High organic carbon content in the bottom sediments and predominance of organic carbon production in the biological pump at inner parts of the bay reveal ongoing transformation of the carbon cycle. This has negative consequences for recreation, social and economic potentials of the Sevastopol region.

  6. Life cycle impacts of forest management and wood utilization on carbon mitigation : knowns and unknowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce Lippke; Elaine Oneil; Rob Harrison; Kenneth Skog; Leif Gustavsson; Roger Sathre

    2011-01-01

    This review on research on life cycle carbon accounting examines the complexities in accounting for carbon emissions given the many different ways that wood is used. Recent objectives to increase the use of renewable fuels have raised policy questions, with respect to the sustainability of managing our forests as well as the impacts of how best to use wood from our...

  7. Effects of nutrient additions on ecosystem carbon cycle in a Puerto Rican tropical wet forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    YIQING LI; MING XU; XIAOMING ZOU

    2006-01-01

    Wet tropical forests play a critical role in global ecosystem carbon (C) cycle, but C allocation and the response of different C pools to nutrient addition in these forests remain poorly understood. We measured soil organic carbon (SOC), litterfall, root biomass, microbial biomass and soil physical and chemical properties in a wet tropical forest from May 1996 to July...

  8. Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillett, Nathan P [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, V8W 3V6 (Canada); Matthews, H Damon, E-mail: nathan.gillett@ec.gc.ca [Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve West, H 1255-26, Montreal, QC, H3G 1M8 (Canada)

    2010-07-15

    Greenhouse gases other than CO{sub 2} make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO{sub 2} emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO{sub 2} following a unit mass emission, is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol, and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon-climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by {approx} 20% in coupled carbon-climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 x 1990 emissions, due to a warming-induced release of CO{sub 2} from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model, but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases, and we suggest that the carbon-climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied.

  9. Life cycle study. Carbon dioxide emissions lower in electric heating than in oil heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkinen, A.; Jaervinen, P.; Nikula, A.

    1996-11-01

    A primary objective of energy conservation is to cut carbon dioxide emissions. A comparative study on the various heating forms, based on the life cycle approach, showed that the carbon dioxide emissions resulting form heating are appreciably lower now that electric heating has become more common. The level of carbon dioxide emissions in Finland would have been millions of tonnes higher had oil heating been chosen instead of electric heating. (orig.)

  10. Novel Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Cycle Utilizing Pressured Oxy-combustion in Conjunction with Cryogenic Compression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brun, Klaus; McClung, Aaron; Davis, John

    2014-03-31

    The team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI) and Thar Energy LLC (Thar) applied technology engineering and economic analysis to evaluate two advanced oxy-combustion power cycles, the Cryogenic Pressurized Oxy-combustion Cycle (CPOC), and the Supercritical Oxy-combustion Cycle. This assessment evaluated the performance and economic cost of the two proposed cycles with carbon capture, and included a technology gap analysis of the proposed technologies to determine the technology readiness level of the cycle and the cycle components. The results of the engineering and economic analysis and the technology gap analysis were used to identify the next steps along the technology development roadmap for the selected cycle. The project objectives, as outlined in the FOA, were 90% CO{sub 2} removal at no more than a 35% increase in cost of electricity (COE) as compared to a Supercritical Pulverized Coal Plant without CO{sub 2} capture. The supercritical oxy-combustion power cycle with 99% carbon capture achieves a COE of $121/MWe. This revised COE represents a 21% reduction in cost as compared to supercritical steam with 90% carbon capture ($137/MWe). However, this represents a 49% increase in the COE over supercritical steam without carbon capture ($80.95/MWe), exceeding the 35% target. The supercritical oxy-combustion cycle with 99% carbon capture achieved a 37.9% HHV plant efficiency (39.3% LHV plant efficiency), when coupling a supercritical oxy-combustion thermal loop to an indirect supercritical CO{sub 2} (sCO{sub 2}) power block. In this configuration, the power block achieved 48% thermal efficiency for turbine inlet conditions of 650°C and 290 atm. Power block efficiencies near 60% are feasible with higher turbine inlet temperatures, however a design tradeoff to limit firing temperature to 650°C was made in order to use austenitic stainless steels for the high temperature pressure vessels and piping and to minimize the need for advanced turbomachinery features

  11. Multiple Observation Types Jointly Constrain Australian Terrestrial Carbon and Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Raupach, Michael; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Pep; Davis, Steven; Isaac, Peter; Law, Rachel; Meyer, Mick; Peters, Glenn; Pickett-Heaps, Christopher; Roxburgh, Stephen; Sherman, Bradford; van Gorsel, Eva; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael; Wang, Ziyuan

    2013-04-01

    Information about the carbon cycle potentially constrains the water cycle, and vice versa. This paper explores the utility of multiple observation sets to constrain carbon and water fluxes and stores in a land surface model, and a resulting determination of the Australian terrestrial carbon budget. Observations include streamflow from 416 gauged catchments, measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 12 eddy-flux sites, litterfall data, and data on carbon pools. The model is a version of CABLE (the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model), coupled with CASAcnp (a biogeochemical model) and SLI (Soil-Litter-Iso, a soil hydrology model including liquid and vapour water fluxes and the effects of litter). By projecting observation-prediction residuals onto model uncertainty, we find that eddy flux measurements provide a significantly tighter constraint on Australian continental net primary production (NPP) than the other data types. However, simultaneous constraint by multiple data types is important for mitigating bias from any single type. Results emerging from the multiply-constrained model are as follows (with all values applying over 1990-2011 and all ranges denoting ±1 standard error): (1) on the Australian continent, a predominantly semi-arid region, over half (0.64±0.05) of the water loss through ET occurs through soil evaporation and bypasses plants entirely; (2) mean Australian NPP is 2200±400 TgC/y, making the NPP/precipitation ratio about the same for Australia as the global land average; (3) annually cyclic ("grassy") vegetation and persistent ("woody") vegetation respectively account for 0.56±0.14 and 0.43±0.14 of NPP across Australia; (4) the average interannual variability of Australia's NEP (±180 TgC/y) is larger than Australia's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (149 TgCeq/y), and is dominated by variability in desert and savannah regions. The mean carbon budget over 1990

  12. The role of nutricline depth in regulating the ocean carbon cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cermeño, Pedro; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Harris, Roger P; Follows, Mick; Schofield, Oscar; Falkowski, Paul G

    2008-12-23

    Carbon uptake by marine phytoplankton, and its export as organic matter to the ocean interior (i.e., the "biological pump"), lowers the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)) in the upper ocean and facilitates the diffusive drawdown of atmospheric CO(2). Conversely, precipitation of calcium carbonate by marine planktonic calcifiers such as coccolithophorids increases pCO(2) and promotes its outgassing (i.e., the "alkalinity pump"). Over the past approximately 100 million years, these two carbon fluxes have been modulated by the relative abundance of diatoms and coccolithophores, resulting in biological feedback on atmospheric CO(2) and Earth's climate; yet, the processes determining the relative distribution of these two phytoplankton taxa remain poorly understood. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition in the Atlantic Ocean and show that the distribution of diatoms and coccolithophorids is correlated with the nutricline depth, a proxy of nutrient supply to the upper mixed layer of the ocean. Using this analysis in conjunction with a coupled atmosphere-ocean intermediate complexity model, we predict a dramatic reduction in the nutrient supply to the euphotic layer in the coming century as a result of increased thermal stratification. Our findings indicate that, by altering phytoplankton community composition, this causal relationship may lead to a decreased efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering atmospheric CO(2), implying a positive feedback in the climate system. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the connection between upper ocean dynamics, the calcium carbonate-to-organic C production ratio and atmospheric pCO(2) variations on time scales ranging from seasonal cycles to geological transitions.

  13. Effects of Litter and Nutrient Additions on Soil Carbon Cycling in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, D. F.; Halterman, S.; Turner, B. L.; Tanner, E.; Wright, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Soil carbon (C) dynamics present one of the largest sources of uncertainty in global C cycle models, with tropical forest soils containing some of the largest terrestrial C stocks. Drastic changes in soil C storage and loss are likely to occur if global change alters plant net primary production (NPP) and/or nutrient availability in these ecosystems. We assessed the effects of litter removal and addition, as well as fertilization with nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and/or potassium (K), on soil C stocks in a tropical seasonal forest in Panama after ten and sixteen years, respectively. We used a density fractionation scheme to assess manipulation effects on rapidly and slowly cycling pools of C. Soil samples were collected in the wet and dry seasons from 0-5 cm and 5-10 cm depths in 15- 45x45 m plots with litter removal, 2x litter addition, and control (n=5), and from 32- 40x40 m fertilization plots with factorial additions of N, P, and K. We hypothesized that litter addition would increase all soil C fractions, but that the magnitude of the effect on rapidly-cycling C would be dampened by a fertilization effect. Results for the dry season show that the "free light" C fraction, or rapidly cycling soil C pool, was significantly different among the three litter treatments, comprising 5.1 ± 0.9 % of total soil mass in the litter addition plots, 2.7 ± 0.3 % in control plots, and 1.0 ± 0.1 % in litter removal plots at the 0-5cm depth (means ± one standard error, p < 0.05). Bulk soil C results are similar to observed changes in the rapidly cycling C pool for the litter addition and removal. Fertilization treatments on average diminished this C pool size relative to control plots, although there was substantial variability among fertilization treatments. In particular, addition of N and P together did not significantly alter rapidly cycling C pool sizes (4.1 ± 1.2 % of total soil mass) relative to controls (3.5 ± 0.4 %), whereas addition of P alone resulted in

  14. A terrestrial Eocene stack: tying terrestrial lake ecology to marine carbon cycling through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grogan, D. S.; Whiteside, J. H.; Musher, D.; Rosengard, S. Z.; Vankeuren, M. A.; Pancost, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    The lacustrine Green River Formation is known to span ≥15 million years through the early-middle Eocene, and recent work on radioisotopic dating has provided a framework on which to build ties to the orbitally-tuned marine Eocene record. Here we present a spliced stack of Fischer assay data from drilled cores of the Green River Formation that span both an East-West and a North-South transect of the Uinta Basin of Utah. Detailed work on two cores demonstrate that Fischer assay measurements covary with total organic carbon and bulk carbon isotopes, allowing us to use Fisher assay results as a representative carbon cycling proxy throughout the stack. We provide an age model for this core record by combining radioisotopic dates of tuff layers with frequency analysis of Fischer assay measurements. Identification of orbital frequencies tied directly to magnetochrons through radioisotopic dates allows for a direct comparison of the terrestrial to the marine Eocene record. Our analysis indicates that the marker beds used to correlate the stack cores represent periods of enhanced lake productivity and extreme carbon burial; however, unlike the hyperthermal events that are clearly marked in the marine Eocene record, the hydrocarbon-rich "Mahogany Bed" period of burial does not correspond to a clear carbon isotope excursion. This suggests that the terrestrial realm may have experienced extreme ecological responses to relatively small perturbations in the carbon cycle during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. To investigate the ecological responses to carbon cycle perturbations through the hydrocarbon rich beds, we analyzed a suite of microbial biomarkers, finding evidence for cyanobacteria, dinoflagellates, and potentially green sulfur bacteria. These taxa indicate fluctuating oxic/anoxic conditions in the lake during abrupt intervals of carbon burial, suggesting a lake biogeochemical regime with no modern analogues.

  15. Carbonate rock depositional models: A microfacies approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carozzi, A.V.

    1988-01-01

    Carbonate rocks contain more than 50% by weight carbonate minerals such as calcite, dolomite, and siderite. Understanding how these rocks form can lead to more efficient methods of petroleum exploration. Micofacies analysis techniques can be used as a method of predicting models of sedimentation for carbonate rocks. Micofacies in carbonate rocks can be seen clearly only in thin sections under a microscope. This section analysis of carbonate rocks is a tool that can be used to understand depositional environments, diagenetic evolution of carbonate rocks, and the formation of porosity and permeability in carbonate rocks. The use of micofacies analysis techniques is applied to understanding the origin and formation of carbonate ramps, carbonate platforms, and carbonate slopes and basins. This book will be of interest to students and professionals concerned with the disciplines of sedimentary petrology, sedimentology, petroleum geology, and palentology.

  16. Towards a paradigm shift in the modeling of soil organic carbon decomposition for earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie

    Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pools and contain approximately 2200 Pg of carbon. Thus, the dynamics of soil carbon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Earth System Models are used to project future interactions between terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate. However, these models often predict a wide range of soil carbon responses and their formulations have lagged behind recent soil science advances, omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms. In contrast, recent mechanistically-based biogeochemical models that explicitly account for microbial biomass pools and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition produce notably different results and provide a closer match to recent observations. However, a systematic evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the microbial models and how they differ from empirical, first-order formulations in soil decomposition models for soil organic carbon is still needed. This dissertation consists of a series of model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and identifies dominant decomposition processes in determining soil organic carbon dynamics. Poorly constrained processes or parameters that require more experimental data integration are also identified. This dissertation also demonstrates the critical role of microbial life-history traits (e.g. microbial dormancy) in the modeling of microbial activity in soil organic matter decomposition models. Finally, this study surveys and synthesizes a number of recently published microbial models and provides suggestions for future microbial model developments.

  17. Separating Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Respiration in Streams and the Importance for Carbon Cycling: a Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, M.; Raymond, P.

    2005-05-01

    Autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms confer different effects on nutrient cycling, especially on carbon (C). In stream ecosystems, net ecosystem production determines the amount and form of C exported; however any transformation due to different respiratory (R) mechanisms are not separated. These mechanisms highly influence the form and lability of the C transported. To understand the current state of knowledge and estimate the importance of autotrophic versus heterotrophic R, we obtained a range of respiratory rates from the literature and modeled effects of different balances of rates on bulk dissolved inorganic and organic C chemistry. Preliminary results show that a wide range of estimates of autotrophic R exist and that these can effect bulk properties of exported C. While specific effects are highly dependent upon physical structure of the study watershed, we offer that separating R mechanisms provides further insight into ecosystem C cycling. We also propose a method to measure autotrophic and heterotrophic R at the ecosystem scale and obtain watershed-level estimates of the importance of these processes on C cycling.

  18. Effects of nitrogen deposition on carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of China: A meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hao; Li, Dejun; Gurmesa, Geshere A.; Yu, Guirui; Li, Linghao; Zhang, Wei; Fang, Huajun; Mo, Jiangming

    2015-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) deposition in China has increased greatly, but the general impact of elevated N deposition on carbon (C) dynamics in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is not well documented. In this study we used a meta-analysis method to compile 88 studies on the effects of N deposition C cycling on Chinese terrestrial ecosystems. Our results showed that N addition did not change soil C pools but increased above-ground plant C pool. A large decrease in below-ground plant C pool was observed. Our result also showed that the impacts of N addition on ecosystem C dynamics depend on ecosystem type and rate of N addition. Overall, our findings suggest that 1) decreased below-ground plant C pool may limit long-term soil C sequestration; and 2) it is better to treat N-rich and N-limited ecosystems differently in modeling effects of N deposition on ecosystem C cycle. - Highlights: • Meta-analysis was used to address the effects of N addition on C cycle. • N addition caused an large decease in belowground plant C pool. • N-rich and N-limited ecosystems had different responses to N addition. - N addition caused a large decrease in below-ground plant C pool.

  19. Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

  20. Carbon and nitrogen isotope variations in tree-rings as records of perturbations in regional carbon and nitrogen cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukata, Andrew R; Kyser, T Kurtis

    2007-02-15

    Increasing anthropogenic pollution from urban centers and fossil fuel combustion can impact the carbon and nitrogen cycles in forests. To assess the impact of twentieth century anthropogenic pollution on forested system carbon and nitrogen cycles, variations in the carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of tree-rings were measured. Individual annual growth rings in trees from six sites across Ontario and one in New Brunswick, Canada were used to develop site chronologies of tree-ring delta 15N and delta 13C values. Tree-ring 615N values were approximately 0.5% per hundred higher and correlated with contemporaneous foliar samples from the same tree, but not with delta 15N values of soil samples. Temporal trends in carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of these tree-rings are consistent with increasing anthropogenic influence on both the carbon and nitrogen cycles since 1945. Tree-ring delta 13C values and delta 15N values are correlated at both remote and urban-proximal sites, with delta 15N values decreasing since 1945 and converging on 1% per hundred at urban-proximal sites and decreasing but not converging on a single delta 15N value in remote sites. These results indicate that temporal trends in tree-ring nitrogen and carbon isotopic compositions record the regional extent of pollution.

  1. The Carbonate-Silicate Cycle on Earth-like Planets Near The End Of Their Habitable Lifetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, A. J.; Mills, B.; Johnson, M.; Claire, M.

    2016-12-01

    The terrestrial cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphic outgassing buffers atmospheric CO2 and global climate over geological time on Earth. To first order, the operation of this cycle is assumed to occur on Earth-like planets in the orbit of other main-sequence stars in the galaxy that exhibit similar continent/ocean configurations. This has important implications for studies of planetary habitability, atmospheric and climatic evolution, and our understanding of the potential distribution of life in the Universe. We present results from a simple biogeochemical carbon cycle model developed to investigate the operation of the carbonate-silicate cycle under conditions of differing planet mass and position within the radiative habitable zone. An active carbonate-silicate cycle does extend the length of a planet's habitable period through the regulation of the CO2 greenhouse. However, the breakdown of the negative feedback between temperature, pCO2, and weathering rates towards the end of a planet's habitable lifespan results in a transitory regime of `carbon starvation' that would inhibit the ability of oxygenic photoautotrophs to metabolize, and result in the collapse of any putative biosphere supported by these organisms, suggesting an earlier limit for the initiation of inhabitable conditions than when considering temperature alone. This conclusion stresses the importance of considering the full suite of planetary properties when determining potential habitability. A small sample of exoplanets was tested using this model, and the length of their habitable periods were found to be significantly longer than that of the Earth, primarily as a function of the differential rates of stellar evolution expected from their host stars. Furthermore, we carried out statistical analysis of a series of model input parameters, determining that both the mass of the planet and the sensitivity of seafloor weathering processes to dissolved CO2 exhibit significant controls on the

  2. Monitoring the Carbon Cycle: Improving Our Ability to Proved Policy Relevant Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhwiler, L.

    2017-12-01

    Humans have altered the energy balance of the climate system mainly by producing and consuming fossil fuels, but also by emissions from food production. Manufacture and use of halocarbons, many of which are also strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) have added to anthropogenic radiative forcing. In response, the global atmosphere has warmed over the last half century at a rate of 0.17°C. The largest contribution to radiative forcing is due to CO2, and at present, about half of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been taken up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. The size of this "carbon emission discount" may change in the future as more carbon accumulates in the oceans, as human alter landscapes, and as climate changes. Efforts to limit global average temperature increases to 2°C and avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change depend on keeping track of both human emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in natural fluxes of carbon and nitrogen that occur in response to human activities and changing climate. Global in situ network observations provide information about changes in global GHG abundances over recent decades, as well as changing distributions between hemispheres. This information gives insight into changes in global and hemispheric sources and sinks of GHGs. It is, however, currently difficult to obtain robust information about regional sources and to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Information about regional sources is needed for GHG policymaking, while discrimination of natural sources is necessary for detection of trends in GHG fluxes and evaluation of coupled carbon cycle climate models. Although column average GHG abundances from space-based remote sensing data could provide considerable constraints on GHG budgets, there are still technical challenges to be overcome. Possible strategies for making progress involve greater increased observational coverage and more international collaboration, as well as

  3. Change impact analysis on the life cycle carbon emissions of energy systems – The nuclear example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nian, Victor

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This paper evaluates the life cycle carbon emission of nuclear power in a scenario based approach. • It quantifies the impacts to the LCA results from the change in design parameters. • The methodology can give indications towards preferred or favorable designs. • The findings contribute to the life cycle inventories of energy systems. - Abstract: The life cycle carbon emission factor (measured by t-CO 2 /GW h) of nuclear power is much lower than those of fossil fueled power generation technologies. However, the fact of nuclear energy being a low carbon power source comes with many assumptions. These assumptions range from system and process definitions, to input–output definitions, to system boundary and cut-off criteria selections, and life cycle inventory dataset. However, there is a somewhat neglected but critical aspect – the design aspect. This refers to the impacts on the life cycle carbon emissions from the change in design parameters related to nuclear power. The design parameters identified in this paper include: (1) the uranium ore grade, (2) the critical process technologies, represented by the average initial enrichment concentration of 235 U in the reactor fuel, and (3) the size of the nuclear power reactor (measured by the generating capacity). If not properly tested, assumptions in the design aspect can lead to an erroneous estimation on the life cycle carbon emission factor of nuclear power. In this paper, a methodology is developed using the Process Chain Analysis (PCA) approach to quantify the impacts of the changes in the selected design parameters on the life cycle carbon emission factor of nuclear power. The concept of doing so broadens the scope of PCAs on energy systems from “one-off” calculation to analysis towards favorable/preferred designs. The findings from the analyses can serve as addition to the life cycle inventory database for nuclear power as well as provide indications for the sustainability of

  4. Water masses as a unifying framework for understanding the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Iudicone

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The scientific motivation for this study is to understand the processes in the ocean interior controlling carbon transfer across 30° S. To address this, we have developed a unified framework for understanding the interplay between physical drivers such as buoyancy fluxes and ocean mixing, and carbon-specific processes such as biology, gas exchange and carbon mixing. Given the importance of density in determining the ocean interior structure and circulation, the framework is one that is organized by density and water masses, and it makes combined use of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. This is achieved through application to a global ice-ocean circulation model and an ocean biogeochemistry model, with both components being part of the widely-used IPSL coupled ocean/atmosphere/carbon cycle model.

    Our main new result is the dominance of the overturning circulation (identified by water masses in setting the vertical distribution of carbon transport from the Southern Ocean towards the global ocean. A net contrast emerges between the role of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW, associated with large northward transport and ingassing, and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, associated with a much smaller export and outgassing. The differences in their export rate reflects differences in their water mass formation processes. For SAMW, two-thirds of the surface waters are provided as a result of the densification of thermocline water (TW, and upon densification this water carries with it a substantial diapycnal flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC. For AAIW, principal formatin processes include buoyancy forcing and mixing, with these serving to lighten CDW. An additional important formation pathway of AAIW is through the effect of interior processing (mixing, including cabelling that serve to densify SAMW.

    A quantitative evaluation of the contribution of mixing, biology and gas exchange to the DIC evolution per water mass reveals that

  5. Influences of the Landscape on Life Cycle Carbon Intensity of Biofuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, P. R.; Del Grosso, S.; Parton, W. J.; Spatari, S.

    2011-12-01

    Biofuels derived from first (sugar and starch based) and second (lignocellulosic) generation agricultural feedstocks will continue to expand into the market between now and 2022 as incentivized through the federal Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). Nitrogen use is one of the key environmental concerns within the life cycle since it is both the dominant source of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (energy from N fertilizer production and N2O emissions) and poses risks of reactive N movement throughout agricultural landscapes and watersheds. The other dominant components of the feedstock production on life cycle GHG emissions are tillage and land use change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC). Opportunities to reduce reactive N through winter double crops may satisfy the dual goal of mitigating N2O emissions and reducing NO3 loses while meeting the objectives of EISA. However, changes in N2O, NO3, and SOC are variable within the agricultural landscape due to soil texture, climate, and crop rotation history thereby increasing the complexity of developing mitigation recommendations. Moreover, the inherent variability in N2O emissions makes it difficult to develop single life cycle carbon intensity profiles for specific fuel pathways that apply across the US, since those pathways will have geographic dependencies. Estimating the expected changes in N2O and SOC is an integral part of quantifying the life cycle GHG profile of biofuels derived from winter double crop feedstocks, while NO3 losses affect both indirect N2O emissions and water quality. The biogeochemical model DayCent was used to simulate the impact of growing winter barley as a double crop following corn before soybean establishment during the winter fallow period for six states in the Mid Atlantic region of the Eastern US on SOC and direct and indirect N2O. EPA is currently reviewing the addition of an advanced fuel pathway for winter barley in the Mid Atlantic region as part of the RFS2

  6. Key issues and options in accounting for carbon sequestration and temporary storage in life cycle assessment and carbon footprinting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandao, Miguel; Levasseur, Annie; Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2013-01-01

    . However, there is still no overall consensus on the most appropriate ways of considering and quantifying it. Method: This paper reviews and discusses six available methods for accounting for the potential climate impacts of carbon sequestration and temporary storage or release of biogenic carbon in LCA...... footprinting (CF) are increasingly popular tools for the environmental assessment of products, that take into account their entire life cycle. There have been significant efforts to develop robust methods to account for the benefits, if any, of sequestration and temporary storage and release of biogenic carbon...

  7. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...