Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics.

OpenAIRE

Gregory, Allan W; Smith, Gregor W

1995-01-01

We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for busin...

The inherent complexity in nonlinear business cycle model in resonance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Junhai; Sun Tao; Liu Lixia

2008-01-01

Based on Abraham C.-L. Chian's research, we applied nonlinear dynamic system theory to study the first-order and second-order approximate solutions to one category of the nonlinear business cycle model in resonance condition. We have also analyzed the relation between amplitude and phase of second-order approximate solutions as well as the relation between outer excitements' amplitude, frequency approximate solutions, and system bifurcation parameters. Then we studied the system quasi-periodical solutions, annulus periodical solutions and the path leading to system bifurcation and chaotic state with different parameter combinations. Finally, we conducted some numerical simulations for various complicated circumstances. Therefore this research will lay solid foundation for detecting the complexity of business cycles and systems in the future

The Brazilian business and growth cycles

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Chauvet Marcelle

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses several produceres to date and analyse the Brazilian business and growth cycles. In particular, a Markov switching model is fitted to quarterly and annual real production data. The smoothed probabilities of the Markov states are used as predictive rules to define different phases of cyclical fluctuations of real Brazilian production. The results are compared with different non-parametric rules. All methods implemented yield similar dating and reveal asymmetries across the different states of the Brazilian business and growth cycles, in which slowdowns and recessions are short and abrupt, while high growth phases and expansions are longer and less steep. The resulting dating of the Brazilian economic cycles can be used as a reference point for construction and evaluation of the predictive performance of coincident, leading, or lagging indicators of economic activity. In addition, the filtered probabilities obtained from the Markov switching model allow early recognition of the transition to a new business cycle phase, wich can be used, for example, for evaluation of the adequate strength and timing of countercyclical policies, for reassessment of projected sales or profits by businesses and investors, or for monitoring of inflation pressures.

Fluctuations in a mixed IS-LM business cycle model

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Hamad Talibi Alaoui

2008-09-01

Full Text Available In the present paper, we extend a delayed IS-LM business cycle model by introducing an additional advance (anticipated capital stock in the investment function. The resulting model is represented in terms of mixed differential equations. For the deviating argument $au$ (advance and delay being a bifurcation parameter we investigate the local stability and the local Hopf bifurcation. Also some numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.

Comparative analysis of Goodwin's business cycle models

Science.gov (United States)

Antonova, A. O.; Reznik, S.; Todorov, M. D.

2016-10-01

We compare the behavior of solutions of Goodwin's business cycle equation in the form of neutral delay differential equation with fixed delay (NDDE model) and in the form of the differential equations of 3rd, 4th and 5th orders (ODE model's). Such ODE model's (Taylor series expansion of NDDE in powers of θ) are proposed in N. Dharmaraj and K. Vela Velupillai [6] for investigation of the short periodic sawthooth oscillations in NDDE. We show that the ODE's of 3rd, 4th and 5th order may approximate the asymptotic behavior of only main Goodwin's mode, but not the sawthooth modes. If the order of the Taylor series expansion exceeds 5, then the approximate ODE becomes unstable independently of time lag θ.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo’s business cycle model and its implications for monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Kallåk Anundsen , André; Sigurd Holmsen Krogh, Tord; Nymoen, Ragnar; Vislie, Jon

2011-01-01

This paper presents the business cycle model that Trygve Haavelmo developed as part of his research program in macroeconomic and monetary theory. Driven by a mismatch between the marginal return to capital and the rate of return required by capital owners, this model generates endogenous cycles. The theory leads to a distinct analysis of the scope and limitations of monetary policy. A main message of the model is that care should be taken when conducting 'autonomous' monetary policy and that ...

A fourth order spline collocation approach for a business cycle model

Science.gov (United States)

Sayfy, A.; Khoury, S.; Ibdah, H.

2013-10-01

A collocation approach, based on a fourth order cubic B-splines is presented for the numerical solution of a Kaleckian business cycle model formulated by a nonlinear delay differential equation. The equation is approximated and the nonlinearity is handled by employing an iterative scheme arising from Newton's method. It is shown that the model exhibits a conditionally dynamical stable cycle. The fourth-order rate of convergence of the scheme is verified numerically for different special cases.

Tracking the business cycle of the Euro area: A multivariate model-based band-pass filter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Azevedo, J.M.; Koopman, S.J.; Rua, A.

2006-01-01

This article proposes a multivariate bandpass filter based on the trend plus cycle decomposition model. The underlying multivariate dynamic factor model relies on specific formulations for trend and cycle components and produces smooth business cycle indicators with bandpass filter properties.

Stability and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Nonlinear Business Cycle Model

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Liming Zhao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study begins with the establishment of a three-dimension business cycle model based on the condition of a fixed exchange rate. Using the established model, the reported study proceeds to describe and discuss the existence of the equilibrium and stability of the economic system near the equilibrium point as a function of the speed of market regulation and the degree of capital liquidity and a stable region is defined. In addition, the condition of Hopf bifurcation is discussed and the stability of a periodic solution, which is generated by the Hopf bifurcation and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation, is provided. Finally, a numerical simulation is provided to confirm the theoretical results. This study plays an important role in theoretical understanding of business cycle models and it is crucial for decision makers in formulating macroeconomic policies as detailed in the conclusions of this report.

Business Cycles in Developing Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

2002-01-01

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse...... than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities...

Loglinear Approximate Solutions to Real-Business-Cycle Models: Some Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Sau-Him Paul; Ng, Philip Hoi-Tak

2007-01-01

Following the analytical approach suggested in Campbell, the authors consider a baseline real-business-cycle (RBC) model with endogenous labor supply. They observe that the coefficients in the loglinear approximation of the dynamic equations characterizing the equilibrium are related to the fundamental parameters in a relatively simple manner.…

The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

OpenAIRE

Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

2008-01-01

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

Multinational Firms and Business Cycle Transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Menno, Dominik Francesco

This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the transmission of international business cycles. I document for the G7 countries between 1991 and 2006 that increases in bilateral FDI linkages are associated with more synchronized investment cycles. I also find...... that the relation between FDI integration and synchronization of gross domestic product (GDP) is - yet positive - statistically insignificant after controlling for time fixed effects. I then study a model of international business cycles with an essential role for FDI and shocks to multinational activity...

Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic model on business cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, J; Wang, H; Ge, G

2008-01-01

A stochastic model on business cycle was presented in thas paper. Simplifying the model through the quasi Hamiltonian theory, the Ito diffusion process was obtained. According to Oseledec multiplicative ergodic theory and singular boundary theory, the conditions of local and global stability were acquired. Solving the stationary FPK equation and analyzing the stationary probability density, the stochastic Hopf bifurcation was explained. The result indicated that the change of parameter awas the key factor to the appearance of the stochastic Hopf bifurcation

The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Saijo, Hikaru

2013-01-01

I study a business cycle model where agents learn about the state of the economy by accumulating capital. During recessions, agents invest less, and this generates noisier estimates of macroeconomic conditions and an increase in uncertainty. The endogenous increase in aggregate uncertainty further reduces economic activity, which in turn leads to more uncertainty, and so on. Thus, through changes in uncertainty, learning gives rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies business cycles. I use ...

Trend shocks and business cycles in Sub Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Naoussi , Claude Francis; Tripier , Fabien

2010-01-01

This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]. We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior of output and consumption across countries, especially ...

Measuring Business Cycle Time.

OpenAIRE

Stock, James H

1987-01-01

The business cycle analysis of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell and the National Bureau of Economic Research presumed that aggregate economic variables evolve on a time scale defined by business cycle turning points rather than by months or quarters. Do macroeconomic variables appear to evolve on an economic rather than a calendar time scale? Evidence presented here suggests that they do. However, the estimated economic time scales are only weakly related to business cycle time scales, ...

Business cycle development in Czech and Slovak economies

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Poměnková, J.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the business cycle development of Czech and Slovak economies. The main objective is to compare several methodological approaches to identify business cycles with the main theoretical sources of the economic activity movements in the analyzed periods. As both economies are of transition type, the growth business cycle concept will be considered. In this respect, deterministic as well as stochastic methods for obtaining cyclical fluctuations are applied. Czech and Slovak economies fall into the group of transition economies where the problems of insufficient number of observations and structural changes in empirical time series analysis occur. Even if there are many similarities in the institutions of both economies, the authors identified different regular periodicities of the waves. The used frequency analysis is a slightly unique approach of business cycle modeling. The analysis of business cycle movements has significant potential to improve economic policy efficiency.

Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

Endogenous money supply and the business cycle

OpenAIRE

William T. Gavin; Finn E. Kydland

1996-01-01

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for money is used to show how alternative money supply rules are expected to affect observed business cycle facts. In this model, changes in the money supply rules have almost no effect on the cyclical behav...

Dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riad, Driss; Hattaf, Khalid; Yousfi, Noura

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A delayed business cycle model is formulated and rigorously analyzed. • Well-posedness of the model and local stability of the economic equilibrium are determined. • Direction and stability of the Hopf bifurcation are investigated. • Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. • Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The model describes the interaction of the gross product and capital stock. Furthermore, the delay represents the time between the decision of investment and implementation. Firstly, we show that the model is well posed by proving the global existence and boundedness of solutions. Secondly, we determine the economic equilibrium of the model. By analyzing the characteristic equation, we investigate the stability of the economic equilibrium and the local existence of Hopf bifurcation. Also, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are derived by applying the normal form method and center manifold theory. Moreover, the global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established by using the global Hopf bifurcation theory. Finally, our theoretical results are illustrated with some numerical simulations.

Historical Business Cycles and Market Integration: Evidence from Comovement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uebele, Martin

2009-01-01

This thesis addresses historical business cycles and market integration in Europe and America in the 19th and 20th centuries. For the analysis of historical business cycles, the widely used methodology of historical national accounting is complemented with a dynamic factor model that allows for

Coupled Oscillator Model of the Business Cycle withFluctuating Goods Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Y.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Iyetomi, H.; Ogimoto, K.; Souma, W.; Yoshikawa, H.

The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic system made up of industry sectors and goods markets in order to analyze the sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle. A coupled oscillator model that exhibits synchronization is developed based on the Kuramoto model with inertia by adding goods markets, and analytic solutions of the stationary state and the coupling strength are obtained. We simulate the effects on synchronization of a sectoral shock for systems with different price elasticities and the coupling strengths. Synchronization is reproduced as an equilibrium solution in a nearest neighbor graph. Analysis of the order parameters shows that the synchronization is stable for a finite elasticity, whereas the synchronization is broken and the oscillators behave like a giant oscillator with a certain frequency additional to the common frequency for zero elasticity.

Business cycle indexes : does a heap of data help?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Inklaar, Robert; Jacobs, Jan; Romp, Ward

2003-01-01

Business cycle indexes are used to get a timely and frequent description of the state of the economy and its likely development in the near future. This paper discusses two methods for constructing business cycle indexes, the traditional NBER method and a recently developed dynamic factor model, and

On a business cycle model with fractional derivative under narrow-band random excitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Zifei; Li, Jiaorui; Li, Shuang

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a business cycle model with fractional derivative of order  α (0 < α < 1) subject to narrow-band random excitation, in which fractional derivative describes the memory property of the economic variables. Stochastic dynamical system concepts are integrated into the business cycle model for understanding the economic fluctuation. Firstly, the method of multiple scales is applied to derive the model to obtain the approximate analytical solution. Secondly, the effect of economic policy with fractional derivative on the amplitude of the economic fluctuation and the effect on stationary probability density are studied. The results show macroeconomic regulation and control can lower the stable amplitude of economic fluctuation. While in the process of equilibrium state, the amplitude is magnified. Also, the macroeconomic regulation and control improves the stability of the equilibrium state. Thirdly, how externally stochastic perturbation affects the dynamics of the economy system is investigated.

International Business Cycle

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Marek Lubiński

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Prime stylized facts of international business cycle theory refer to positive correlation in the cyclical components of important macroeconomic variables across countries. However a number of indicators of business cycle synchronization do not point to clear trends. It can be ascribed to the fact that different forces influence level of business cycle correlation. When investigating into the forces behind the commonness in aggregate fluctuations economic research seems to have pointed in two directions. One strand of the literature examines the idea of common exogenous shocks that affect economies simultaneously. In addition to that economic interdependencies such as trade in goods and services or capital account transactions may serve as the channels through which disturbances spill over across countries.The observed degree of output co movement reflects both the nature of the shocks that have occurred and the degree of economic interdependence. In the periods when common shocks prevail level of synchronization is usually higher than in times of transmission dominance.

Lending Sociodynamics and Drivers of the Financial Business Cycle

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Raymond J. Hawkins

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We extend sociodynamic modeling of the financial business cycle to the Euro Area andJapan. Using an opinion-formation model and machine learning techniques we find stable modelestimation of the financial business cycle using central bank lending surveys and a few selectedmacroeconomic variables. We find that banks have asymmetric response to good and bad economicinformation, and that banks adapt to their peers’ opinions when changing lending policies.

Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants

OpenAIRE

Young-Joon Park

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regio...

Teaching Real Business Cycles to Undergraduates

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Frode; Gartner, Manfred

2007-01-01

The authors review the graphical approach to teaching the real business cycle model introduced in Barro. They then look at where this approach cuts corners and suggest refinements. Finally, they compare graphical and exact models by means of impulse-response functions. The graphical models yield reliable qualitative results. Sizable quantitative…

A generalized business cycle model with delays in gross product and capital stock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hattaf, Khalid; Riad, Driss; Yousfi, Noura

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A generalized business cycle model is proposed and rigorously analyzed. • Well-posedness of the model and local stability of the economic equilibrium are investigated. • Direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined. • A special case and some numerical simulations are presented. - Abstract: In this work, we propose a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The time delays are introduced into gross product and capital stock, respectively. We first prove that the model is mathematically and economically well posed. In addition, the stability of the economic equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are investigated. Our main results show that both time delays can cause the macro-economic system to fluctuate and the economic equilibrium to lose or gain its stability. Moreover, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by means of the normal form method and center manifold theory. Furthermore, the models and results presented in many previous studies are improved and generalized.

Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Insurance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben M.; Svarer, Michael

The consequences of business cycle contingencies in unemployment insurance systems are considered in a search-matching model allowing for shifts between "good" and "bad" states of nature. We show that not only is there an insurance argument for such contingencies, but there may also be an incentive...

Monetary transmission and business cycle asymmetry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kakes, Jan

1998-01-01

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during

Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is

International Real Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Mario J. Crucini

2006-01-01

This paper is a non-technical review of research developments in the international real business cycle literature. International business cycle facts are summarize with particular attention to the sources of output variance from the expenditure side of the NIPA and the production side, using a familiar neoclassical production function. Theoretical developments focus on the how consumption smoothing and investment dynamics shape the current account; the search for sources and propagation mecha...

Codimension-2 bifurcations of the Kaldor model of business cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Xiaoqin P.

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → The conditions are given such that the characteristic equation may have purely imaginary roots and double zero roots. → Purely imaginary roots lead us to study Hopf and Bautin bifurcations and to calculate the first and second Lyapunov coefficients. → Double zero roots lead us to study Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcation. → Bifurcation diagrams for Bautin and BT bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory. - Abstract: In this paper, complete analysis is presented to study codimension-2 bifurcations for the nonlinear Kaldor model of business cycle. Sufficient conditions are given for the model to demonstrate Bautin and Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcations. By computing the first and second Lyapunov coefficients and performing nonlinear transformation, the normal forms are derived to obtain the bifurcation diagrams such as Hopf, homoclinic and double limit cycle bifurcations. Some examples are given to confirm the theoretical results.

Evidence on Common Feature and Business Cycle Synchronization in Mercosur

OpenAIRE

Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique; Reis Gomes, Fábio Augusto

2007-01-01

The aim of this work is to analyze the business cycles of Mercosur member countries in order to investigate their degree of synchronization. The econometric model uses the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson multivariate trend-cycle decomposition, taking into account the presence of common features such as common trend and common cycle. Once the business cycles are estimated, their degree of synchronization is analyzed by means of linear correlation in time domain and coherence and phase in f...

Instability of capitalism inflation, unemployment, and business cycles

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Adil H. Mouhammed

2006-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the instability of capitalism defined as a condition under which capitalism creates inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. Great economists such as Marx, Veblen, and Schumpeter have examined this problem, concluding that capitalist instability will transform capitalism. A model is developed in this paper to investigate instability, and the finding is that the basic causebehind instability is the conflict on income share: wages and profits. The fluctuations in the share of profits create inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. This generalization has been verified by using data from the American economy for the 1970s, 1980s, and the 1990s. Over this period, the paper concludes, whenthe profit share is high, moderate inflation and employment were generated, and when profit share is low, inflation, unemployment, and business cycles have appeared.

Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Joon Park

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.

Endogenous, Imperfectly Competitive Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

We investigate how imperfect competition affects the occurrence and the properties of endogenous, rational expectations business cycles in an overlapping generations model with constant returns to scale in production. The model has explicit product and labor markets all characterized...... by monopolistic competition. An implicit assumption of barriers to entry justifies that the number of firms is fixed even when positive profits occur. It turns out that both market power of firms on the product markets and market power of unions on the labor markets make the occurrence of cycles more likely....... In particular, imperfect competition on the product markets and the positive profits associated with it may have the effect that there is a cycle even if the labor supply curve is increasing in the real-wage rate. For competitive cycles is required not only a decreasing labor supply curve, but a wage elasticity...

Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration

OpenAIRE

Fiess, Norbert

2007-01-01

Deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement, is likely to lead to closer links between Central American and U.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization between Central America and the United States—relevant not only for a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on the business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evalua...

Extracting a robust U.S. business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Creal, D.D.

2010-01-01

We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In particular, we

Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, Siem Jan; Azevedo, Joao Valle e

2003-01-01

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different

Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik; Ravn, Søren Hove; Santoro, Emiliano

In the last decades, capital markets across the industrialized world have undergone massive deregulation, involving increases in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of households and firms. We study the business-cycle implications of this phenomenon in a dynamic general equilibrium model with multiple...

Measuring business cycles in The Netherlands, 1815-1913: a comparison of business cycle dating methods

OpenAIRE

Bonenkamp, Jan; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.

2001-01-01

This paper compares different business cycle dating methods both on theoretical and practical grounds. Weighing the pros and cons of these methods, and based on a new data set for The Netherlands in the nineteenth century, we finally recommend two preferred methods for doing further business cycle research on the economy of the Netherlands. With respect to the methods for finding turning points in the level of economic activity, the classical cycle definition, we prefer the Bry-Boschan algori...

Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Pater

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Business cycles are highly irregular fluctuations in economic activity. This article attempts to determine whether there are some properties of business cycles that can make them look more regular. This is done by analysing business cycle dynamics, especially by employing and adjusting to contemporary business cycle analysis the theories of growth cycles and classical cycles. The non-homogeneity of business cycles is surveyed in theory and practice with use of ad hoc filtering, spectral analysis and unobserved components models. With their use business cycles are extracted. Several macroeconomic indicators for 32 economies are analysed to draw up additional characteristics of contemporary business cycles. The author proposes that fluctuations in economic activity lasting 8-19 quarters should be called ‘growth cycles’ and those lasting 20-40 quarters – ‘classical cycles’. The value added of this article is the consideration of the two different type of cycles in light of the same methods of extraction, while to date they have been thought of as the ones that can be analysed with use of different methods of extraction. Another innovation is comparison of the cyclicality of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of the two types of cycles, while to date they have been analysed in the light of a single business cycle. In the article it is shown that dividing business cycles into such defined classical cycles and growth cycles enables us to understand the differences between the cyclicality of various macroeconomic aggregates and countries. It also enables us to distinguish between smaller downturns and severe recessions. Another conclusion is that the duration of contemporary business cycles around the world closes in a range of 2 to 10 years.

Essays on oil and business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Aba Alkhail, Bandar A.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one presents a theoretical model using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate the role of world oil prices in explaining the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. However, this model has some unfavorable features that are associated with both investment and labor hours. The second chapter presents a modified theoretical model using DSGE approach to examine the role of world oil prices versus productivity shocks in explaining the business cycles in Saudi Arabia. To overcome the unfavorable features of the baseline model, the alternative model adds friction to the model by incorporating investment portfolio adjustment cost. Thus, the alternative model produces similar dynamics to that of the baseline model but the unfavorable characteristics are eliminated. Also, this chapter conducts sensitivity analysis. The objective of the third chapter is to empirically investigate how real world oil price and productivity shocks affect output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and trade balance/output ratio for Saudi Arabia. This chapter complements the theoretical model of the previous chapters. In addition, this study builds a foundation for future studies in examining the impact of real world oil price shocks on the economies of key trade partners of Saudi Arabia. The results of the third chapter show that productivity shocks matter more for macroeconomic fluctuations than oil shocks for the Saudis' primary trade partners. Therefore, fears of oil importing countries appear to be overstated. As a whole, this research is important for the following reasons. First, the empirical model is consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model in that productivity is a driving force of business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Finance in the Theory of Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Indrajit, Mallick

2008-01-01

Abstract The question of aggregate welfare over time makes business cycle studies important. Finance studies allocation of resources under uncertainty. Thus both these fields of study dwell on intertemporal resource allocation under uncertainty. This paper attempts to shed light on how finance can be integrated into business cycle theory to provide richer and deeper insights than the standard real business cycle theory. JEL Classification: E32, E44, G

Entrepreneurship and the business cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koellinger, Philipp D.; Thurik, A. Roy

2012-01-01

We find new empirical regularities in the business cycle in a cross-country panel of 22 OECD countries for the period 1972 to 2007; entrepreneurship Granger-causes the cycles of the world economy. Furthermore, the entrepreneurial cycle is positively affected by the national unemployment cycle. We

Business cycles in the Netherlands, 1815-1913

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, Jan; Smits, Jan-Pieter

2001-01-01

This article exploits a unique new dataset containing information on the economy of the Netherlands to date business cycles turning points in the 19th century (1815-1913) using a modern econometric technique. The business cycle in the Netherlands is compared to the international (UK and US) business

Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)

2016-01-01

textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with

Entrepreneurship and the Business Cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.D. Koellinger (Philipp); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

2011-01-01

textabstractWe find new empirical regularities in the business cycle in a cross-country panel of 22 OECD countries for the period 1972-2007; entrepreneurship Granger-causes the cycles of the world economy. Furthermore, the entrepreneurial cycle is positively affected by the national unemployment

Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend

OpenAIRE

Mark Aguiar; Gita Gopinath

2004-01-01

Business cycles in emerging markets are characterized by strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and dramatic “sudden stops” in capital inflows. These features contrast with those of developed, small open economies and highlight the uniqueness of emerging markets. Nevertheless, we show that both qualitatively and quantitatively a standard dynamic stochastic, small open economy model can account for the behavior of both types of market...

The role of interest rates in the Brazilian business cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper offers additional insights on the relationship between interest rates and business cycles in Brazil. First, I document that Brazilian interest rates are very volatile, counter-cyclical and positively correlated with net exports, as observed in other emerging market economies. Next, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face working capital constraints and labor supply is independent of consumption. This parsimonious model, appropriately calibrated to the Brazilian economy, predicts that interest rate shocks can explain about one third of output fluctuations and delivers business cycle regularities consistent with the Brazilian data.

GLOBALIZATION VERSUS SEGREGATION - BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONIZATION IN EUROPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebastian Florian Enea

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Globalization and business cycles are equally elusive economic phenomena; hence they represent a continuous research possibility and a source of possible inquiries due to their complex nature. The aim of the paper is to explain the synchronization of business cycles using the relationship between the growth rate of the GDP and FDI, considered as percentage of the GDP. The results show that there is no unique European business cycle, but two cores between which countries migrate and stress out the importance of the FDI channel in business cycle transmission. The future research directions will employ fuzzy cluster techniques, used on a larger sample.

Business model dynamics: a case survey

OpenAIRE

de Reuver, Mark; Bouwman, Harry; Maclnnes, Ian

2009-01-01

In the turbulent world of e-commerce, companies can only survive by continuously reinventing their business models. However, because most studies look at business models as snapshots in time, there is little insight into how changing market-related, technological and regulatory conditions generally drive revisions in business models. In this paper, we examine which types of external drivers are strongest in forcing business models to change throughout their life cycle. To do so, we study 45 l...

The integrity management cycle as a business process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackhurst, Trent B.; Peverelli, Romina P. [PIMS - Pipeline Integrity Management Specialists of London Ltd. (United Kingdom).

2009-07-01

It is a best-practice Oil and Gas pipeline integrity and reliability technique to apply integrity management cycles. This is conforms to the business principles of continuous improvement. This paper examines the integrity management cycle - both goals and objectives and subsequent component steps - from a business perspective. Traits that businesses require, to glean maximum benefit from such a cycle, are highlighted. A case study focuses upon an integrity and reliability process developed to apply to pipeline operators. installations. This is compared and contrasted to the pipeline integrity management cycle to underline both cycles. consistency with the principles of continuous improvement. (author)

Changing credit limits, changing business cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik; Ravn, Søren Hove; Santoro, Emiliano

2017-01-01

In the last half-century, capital markets across the industrialized world have undergone massive deregulation, involving large increases in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of house- holds and firms. We study the business-cycle implications of this phenomenon in an es- timated dynamic general...... macroeconomic volatility, a countercyclical LTV ratio proves to be successful in dampening business cycle fluctuations and, most importantly, avoiding dramatic output drops....

Antecedents and Consequences of Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waldner, Florian; Poetz, Marion; Grimpe, Christoph

2015-01-01

evidence seems to be confined to firm-level antecedents and pays little attention to the impact of industry structure. This study investigates how different stages of an industry’s life cycle and levels of industry competition affect firms’ business model innovation, and how such innovation translates...... into innovation performance. Based on a cross-industry sample of 1,242 Austrian firms, we introduce a unique measure for the degree of innovation in a firm’s business model. The results indicate that the degree of business model innovation is highest toward the beginning of an industry life cycle, that is......What makes firms innovate their business models? Why do they engage in innovating how they create, deliver, and capture value? And how does such innovation translate into innovation performance? Despite the importance of business model innovation for achieving competitive advantage, existing...

Lumpy investment, sectoral propagation, and business cycles (Invited Paper)

Science.gov (United States)

Nirei, Makoto

2005-05-01

This paper proposes a model of endogenous fluctuations in investment. A monopolistic producer has an incentive to invest when the aggregate demand is high. The investment at the firm level is also known to exhibit a threshold behavior called an (S,s) policy. These two facts lead us to consider that the fluctuation in aggregate investment is generated by the global coupling of the non-linear oscillators. From this perspective, we characterize the probability distribution of the investment clustering in a partial equilibrium of product markets, and show that its variance can be large enough to match the observed investment fluctuations. We then implement this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model to explore an investment-driven business cycle. By calibrating the model with the SIC 4-digit level industry data, we numerically show that the model replicates the basic structure of the business cycles.

Attractor merging crisis in chaotic business cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chian, Abraham C.-L.; Borotto, Felix A.; Rempel, Erico L.; Rogers, Colin

2005-01-01

A numerical study is performed on a forced-oscillator model of nonlinear business cycles. An attractor merging crisis due to a global bifurcation is analyzed using the unstable periodic orbits and their associated stable and unstable manifolds. Characterization of crisis can improve our ability to forecast sudden major changes in economic systems

Business cycles and mortality: results from Swedish microdata.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Johannesson, Magnus

2005-01-01

We assess the relationship between business cycles and mortality risk using a large individual level data set on over 40,000 individuals in Sweden who were followed for 10-16 years (leading to over 500,000 person-year observations). We test the effect of six alternative business cycle indicators on the mortality risk: the unemployment rate, the notification rate, the deviation from the GDP trend, the GDP change, the industry capacity utilization, and the industry confidence indicator. For men we find a significant countercyclical relationship between the business cycle and the mortality risk for four of the indicators and a non-significant effect for the other two indicators. For women we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no effect for any of the business cycle indicators.

Educational Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

Strong institutional constraints and better-informed voters may lead re-election seeking incumbents to shift the use of political business cycle mechanisms away from monetary and fiscal policy towards other policy domains that are more easily manipulable, targetable, and timeable. We investigate...... teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...... periods and partly reverse this during politically safer points in the electoral cycle. Cycles are mediated by issue salience: heightened attention to German public schooling after the notorious PISA-2000 tests further strengthens the manipulation of new teacher hiring for electoral purposes....

Educational Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepe, Markus; Vanhuysse, Pieter

2009-01-01

Strong institutional constraints and better-informed voters may lead re-election seeking incumbents to shift the use of political business cycle mechanisms away from monetary and fiscal policy towards other policy domains that are more easily manipulable, targetable, and timeable. We investigate...... teacher employment patterns at the state level in Germany and find strong evidence of cycling mechanisms, in the form of electioneering and honeymooning. Against a backdrop of a continuously shrinking total teachers' pool, German state-level incumbents accelerate the hiring of new teachers during election...... periods and partly reverse this during politically safer points in the electoral cycle. Cycles are mediated by issue salience: heightened attention to German public schooling after the notorious PISA-2000 tests further strengthens the manipulation of new teacher hiring for electoral purposes....

Managing Business-to-Business Relationships throughout the E-Commerce Procurement Life Cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, Norm; Yuan, Yufei

2000-01-01

Since the core of e-commerce is information and communications, support for managing customer relationships is available to those who know how to use it. Discusses how technology can be used to encourage and facilitate customer-business relationships. Shows through a customer relationship life cycle model how the management of related procurement…

STUDYING BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Servetnyk

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The paper researches business cycles synchronization. The fluctuations in post-Soviet countries are considered. The study examines different measures of synchronization in groups of countries according to some criteria.

Business models for model businesses: Lessons from renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabriel, Cle-Anne; Kirkwood, Jodyanne

2016-01-01

Against the background of mounting research suggesting entrepreneurship as a means of increasing the uptake of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in developing countries, this paper presents the findings of an exploratory investigation into the business models used by renewable energy entrepreneurs in such countries. Forty-three entrepreneurs were interviewed in 28 developing countries and secondary information about country and regional conditions was analysed. We chose the Business Model Canvas as an analytical tool and the findings shed new light on established renewable energy business types. Three different types of businesses were identified – Consultants, Distributors, and Integrators; yet, there is also some overlap between these types. These business types appeared to parallel the life cycle progression of the business, but this requires further research. A key component of the study was to assess whether the types of businesses were related to country-level conditions to assess the impact of regional differences. These comparisons revealed consistencies between country-level characteristics and the entrepreneurs’ choice of business model. Conclusions suggest that different regions may support certain business models more than others due to differing levels of government interest in renewables, governance and policy support and the relative ease of doing business. - Highlights: •Business model canvas used to analyse renewable energy entrepreneurs’ businesses. •Consultants, distributors and integrators are the main business models used. •Business model characteristics are related to country and regional conditions. •Entrepreneurs in least favourable policy environments likely to be Consultants. •Energy entrepreneurship policy should focus on promoting specific business models.

A dynamic IS-LM business cycle model with two time delays in capital accumulation equation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lujun; Li, Yaqiong

2009-06-01

In this paper, we analyze a augmented IS-LM business cycle model with the capital accumulation equation that two time delays are considered in investment processes according to Kalecki's idea. Applying stability switch criteria and Hopf bifurcation theory, we prove that time delays cause the equilibrium to lose or gain stability and Hopf bifurcation occurs.

Which Industries Are Sensitive to Business Cycles?

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Jay; Pfleeger, Janet

1997-01-01

An analysis of the 1994-2005 Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projections can be used to identify industries that are projected to move differently with business cycles in the future than with those of the past, and can be used to identify the industries and occupations that are most prone to business cycle swings. (Author)

Business cycles' correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network.

Science.gov (United States)

Krichene, Hazem; Chakraborty, Abhijit; Inoue, Hiroyasu; Fujiwara, Yoshi

2017-01-01

This work aims to study and explain the business cycle correlations of the Japanese production network. We consider the supplier-customer network, which is a directed network representing the trading links between Japanese firms (links from suppliers to customers). The community structure of this network is determined by applying the Infomap algorithm. Each community is defined by its GDP and its associated business cycle. Business cycle correlations between communities are estimated based on copula theory. Then, based on firms' attributes and network topology, these correlations are explained through linear econometric models. The results show strong evidence of business cycle correlations in the Japanese production network. A significant systemic risk is found for high negative or positive shocks. These correlations are explained mainly by the sector and by geographic similarities. Moreover, our results highlight the higher vulnerability of small communities and small firms, which is explained by the disassortative mixing of the production network.

Economic growth and business cycles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Canton, E.J.F.

1997-01-01

This thesis contains five essays on economic growth and business cycles. The main focus is on the interaction between economic growth and the cycle: is cyclical variability good or bad for the long-run rate of economic growth? The introduction aims to provide some empirical evidence for an

Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Are 100 Percent Reserves Sufficient to Prevent a Business Cycle?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Bagus

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Authors in the Austrian tradition have made the credit expansion of a fractional reserve banking system as the prime cause of business cycles. Authors such as Selgin (1988 and White (1999 have argued that a solution to this problem would be a free banking system. They maintain that the competition between banks would limit the credit expansion effectively. Other authors such as Rothbard (1991 and Huerta de Soto (2006 have gone further and advocated a 100 percent reserve banking system ruling out credit expansion altogether. In this article it is argued that a 100 percent reserve system can still bring about business cycles through excessive maturity mismatching between deposits and loans.

Small business life cycle: statics and dynamics (S

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matejun Marek

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is the presentation of theoretical foundations and the structure of original, 8-stage statics and dynamics model in the small business life cycle. Based on theoretical considerations, two hypotheses concerning the impact of dynamic and static nature of the life-cycle stages on selected determinants and effects of SMEs’ development were formulated. The hypotheses were verified based on the results of the survey conducted on a sample of 1,741 SMEs from 22 countries of the European Union. The results indicate that companies in the dynamic life-cycle stages are run by more enterprising owners, operate in more promising markets with a higher potential and make greater use of market niches thus limiting the level of competition. At the same time, such companies are characterised by higher levels of flexibility and involvement in innovative activities, which translates into obtaining a significantly higher level of business performance, in the area of quantitative as well as qualitative results.

Stability and bifurcation analysis in a kind of business cycle model with delay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Chunrui; Wei Junjie

2004-01-01

A kind of business cycle model with delay is considered. Firstly, the linear stability of the model is studied and bifurcation set is drawn in the appropriate parameter plane. It is found that there exist Hopf bifurcations when the delay passes a sequence of critical values. Then the explicit algorithm for determining the direction of the Hopf bifurcations and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are derived, using the normal form method and center manifold theorem. Finally, a group conditions to guarantee the global existence of periodic solutions is given, and numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results found

Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Benefits with Wealth Heterogeneity and Precautionary Savings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristoffersen, Mark Strøm

In the wake of the financial and economic crisis the discussion about social insurance and optimal stabilization policies has re-blossomed. This paper adds to the literature by studying the effects of a business cycle dependent level of unemployment benefits in a model with labor market matching......, wealth heterogeneity, precautionary savings, and aggregate fluctuations in productivity. The results are ambiguous: both procyclical and countercyclical unemployment benefits can increase welfare relative to business cycle invariant benefits. Procyclical benefits are beneficial due to countercyclicality...

The US business cycle: power law scaling for interacting units with complex internal structure

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, Paul

2002-11-01

In the social sciences, there is increasing evidence of the existence of power law distributions. The distribution of recessions in capitalist economies has recently been shown to follow such a distribution. The preferred explanation for this is self-organised criticality. Gene Stanley and colleagues propose an alternative, namely that power law scaling can arise from the interplay between random multiplicative growth and the complex structure of the units composing the system. This paper offers a parsimonious model of the US business cycle based on similar principles. The business cycle, along with long-term growth, is one of the two features which distinguishes capitalism from all previously existing societies. Yet, economics lacks a satisfactory theory of the cycle. The source of cycles is posited in economic theory to be a series of random shocks which are external to the system. In this model, the cycle is an internal feature of the system, arising from the level of industrial concentration of the agents and the interactions between them. The model-in contrast to existing economic theories of the cycle-accounts for the key features of output growth in the US business cycle in the 20th century.

The Political Business Cycles of EU Accession Countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Hallerberg; L. Vinhas de Souza

2000-01-01

textabstractThis paper considers whether political business cycles exist in Eastern European accession countries. Section I introduces the overall objectives of the work. Section II provides a short introduction to the political business cycle literature. It also considers the role of exchange

Inventories in the Australian business cycle

OpenAIRE

Chindamo, Phillip

2010-01-01

This Economics Research Note examines inventories in the business cycle for Australia covering the period since the mid 1980s. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defines inventories as all materials etc., work in progress and finished goods owned by a business, whether held at locations of the business or elsewhere. These items are usually held by businesses in anticipation of a product’s sale. Inventory investment is counted as an additional contribution to gross domestic product (...

A study on the complexity of a business cycle model with great excitements in non-resonant condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Junhai; Cui Yaqiang; Liulixia

2009-01-01

Based on the researches of Szydlowski and Krawiec, we studied the inherent complexity of a chaotic business cycle with great excitements in non-resonant condition. First, we got the first-order and second-order approximate solutions of the system by using multiple scale method. Then deduced the formulation reflecting the complex relations between vibration, phase, bifurcation parameter μ and excite frequency Ω of first-order solution. As the great excitement F varied, the global changes of the system solutions were analyzed. We also explored the different paths leading the systems with different parameter combinations into catastrophe region, fuzzy region or chaos region. Finally, we discussed the evolution trends of business cycle models under the above-mentioned conditions. Hence, this paper has some theoretical and practical significance.

Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik; Petrella, Ivan; Ravn, Søren Hove

2017-01-01

We document that the U.S. economy has been characterized by an increasingly negative business cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate......, booms become progressively smoother and more prolonged than busts. We are therefore able to reconcile a more negatively skewed business cycle with the Great Moderation in cyclical volatility. Finally, in line with recent empirical evidence, financially-driven expansions lead to deeper contractions...

Is That Fiscal Convergence Provides Business Cycles Synchronization

OpenAIRE

Alimi, Nabil; Garbaa, Radhouan

2014-01-01

Using a panel of annual data for 29 ODCE countries over the period 1996 2010, we empirically examine if fiscal convergence make business cycles more closely linked. The results suggest that a reduction in fiscal divergence tend to raise the business cycle correlation between a pair of ODCE countries.

International and Domestic Business Cycles as Dynamics of a Network of Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Yuichi; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Aoyama, Hideaki; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

2014-03-01

Synchronization in business cycles has attracted economists and physicists as self-organization in the time domain. From a different point of view, international and domestic business cycles are also interesting as dynamics of a network of networks or a multi-level network. In this paper, we analyze the Indices of Industrial Production monthly time-series in Japan from January 1988 to December 2007 to develop a deeper understanding of domestic business cycles. The frequency entrainment and the partial phase locking were observed for the 16 sectors to be direct evidence of synchronization. We also showed that the information of the economic shock is carried by the phase time-series. The common shock and individual shocks are separated using phase time-series. The former dominates the economic recession in all of 1992, 1998 and 2001. In addition to the above analysis, we analyze the quarterly GDP time series for Australia, Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States from Q2 1960 to Q1 2010 in order to clarify its origin. We find frequency entrainment and partial phase locking. Furthermore, a coupled limit-cycle oscillator model is developed to explain the mechanism of synchronization. In this model, the interaction due to international trade is interpreted as the origin of the synchronization. The obtained results suggest that the business cycle may be described as a dynamics of the multi-level coupled oscillators exposed to random individual shocks.

Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

2009-01-01

We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

Spectral Analysis Of Business Cycles In The Visegrad Group Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kijek Arkadiusz

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the business cycle properties of Visegrad group countries. The main objective is to identify business cycles in these countries and to study the relationships between them. The author applies a modification of the Fourier analysis to estimate cycle amplitudes and frequencies. This allows for a more precise estimation of cycle characteristics than the traditional approach. The cross-spectral analysis of GDP cyclical components for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia makes it possible to assess the degree of business cycle synchronization between the countries.

Business cycles in small, open economies: Evidence from panel data between 1900 and 2013

OpenAIRE

Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan

2016-01-01

Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. We find that financial frictions are an important feature for not only developing countries but also small developed countries. Furthermore, business cycles in both groups of countries are marked with trend ...

Business-cycle research in marketing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Deleersnyder, Barbara; Dekimpe, Marnik; Wierenga, B.; van der Lans, R.

The recent Global Financial crisis has reminded companies that macro-economic developments, and especially business-cycle fluctuations, can be among the most influential determinants of a firm’s activities and performance.

Business model reconfiguration in green construction: A theoretical perspective

OpenAIRE

Abuzeinab, Amal; Arif, Mohammed

2013-01-01

PhD study Business models describe the business logic of a particular company and green business model is when a company changes part(s) of its business model and thereby both captures economic value and reduces the ecological footprint in a life-cycle perspective. In this paper, business model literature is reviewed with the intention of promoting learning to understand the economic complexity of environmental sustainability in the construction context. Although the green construction lit...

Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A; Huffstot, John S; Mata, Maria Eugénia

2018-01-01

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. PMID:29408909

Univariate characterization of the German business cycle 1955-1994

OpenAIRE

Weihs, Claus; Garczarek, Ursula

2002-01-01

We present a descriptive analysis of stylized facts for the German business cycle. We demonstrate that simple ad-hoc instructions for identifying univariate rules characterizing the German business cycle 1955-1994 lead to an error rate comparable to standard multivariate methods.

Integrated corporate structure life cycle management modeling and organization

OpenAIRE

Naumenko, M.; Morozova, L.

2011-01-01

Integrated business structure presented as complementary pool of its participants skills. The methodical approach to integrated business structure life cycle modeling proposed. Recommendations of enterprises life cycles stages correlate are submitted.

Environmental macroeconomics : Environmental policy, business cycles, and directed technical change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fischer, Carolyn; Heutel, Garth

Environmental economics has traditionally fallen in the domain of microeconomics, but approaches from macroeconomics have recently been applied to studying environmental policy. We focus on two macroeconomic tools and their application to environmental economics. First, real-business-cycle models

Commercialization of nuclear fuel cycle business

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yakabe, Hideo

1998-01-01

Japan depends on foreign countries almost for establishing nuclear fuel cycle. Accordingly, uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing and the safe treatment and disposal of radioactive waste in Japan is important for securing energy. By these means, the stable supply of enriched uranium, the rise of utilization efficiency of uranium and making nuclear power into home-produced energy can be realized. Also this contributes to the protection of earth resources and the preservation of environment. Japan Nuclear Fuel Co., Ltd. operates four business commercially in Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture, aiming at the completion of nuclear fuel cycle by the technologies developed by Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation and the introduction of technologies from foreign countries. The conditions of location of nuclear fuel cycle facilities and the course of the location in Rokkasho are described. In the site of about 740 hectares area, uranium enrichment, burying of low level radioactive waste, fuel reprocessing and high level waste control have been carried out, and three businesses except reprocessing already began the operation. The state of operation of these businesses is reported. Hereafter, efforts will be exerted to the securing of safety through trouble-free operation and cost reduction. (K.I.)

Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergman, Ulf Michael

2008-01-01

This paper evaluates the decisions made by the Finnish government to join EMU and the Swedish government not to join EMU in the early 1990s. Focusing on the characteristics of business cycles during the postwar period, we find that output fluctuations in Sweden and Finland are correlated to two...... measures of the international business cycle, a European and a non-European cycle. The Finnish cycle has become more synchronized to the European cycle but less synchronized to the non-EU cycle after 1999. For Sweden we find the opposite result. The decision by the Finnish government to join EMU...

The African Political Business Cycle: varieties of Experience

OpenAIRE

Mosley, P.; Chiripanhura, B.

2012-01-01

We seek to understand both the incidence and the impact of the African political business cycle in the light of a literature which has argued that, with major extensions of democracy since the 1990s, the cycle has both become more intense and has made African political systems more fragile. With the help of country-case studies, we argue, first, that the African political business cycle is not homogeneous, and is rarely encountered in so-called ‘dominant-party systems’ where a pre-election st...

Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Günzel-Jensen, Franziska; Holm, Anna B.

2015-01-01

directly and indirectly further resource acquisition. Second, while previous literature has taken a static perspective, we contribute by illustrating the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new......In e-business freemium business models have become legitimate. However, current research provides little insight on how the free and premium offering should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fill this gap by investigating how the property...... ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initial life-cycle stages – opportunity recognition, market entry, and market exploitation. We find that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initial life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons...

New approaches to business cycle theory in current economic science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica DOBRESCU

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In modern economies, current research generally acknowledges that the central issues in macroeconomics are essentially the same as those identified by Keynes in the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. One way or the other, economists are trying to address the same macroeconomic issues that they did seven decades ago: How can we account for the different growth rates and various fluctuations observed in national economies? Which are the economic policies most suitable to solve the issues of growth and cyclic behavior? Both the new classicals and the new Keynesians have made considerable progress within their research paradigms: to explain economic fluctuations, the new classicals focus on technological perturbations, the intertemporal substitution of leisure and real business cycles; on the other hand, the new Keynesians speak in terms of monopolistic competition, menu costs or efficiency wages. On the whole, the new classicals believe that the business cycle can best be understood within the market-clearing model, whereas the new keynesians believe that business fluctuations are due to certain market failures of various sorts.The present paper focuses on the main directions of research of the new classical school on the business cycle, given that the theoretical progress in this field has been significant and relevant for economic policy during the past four decades.

Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Ayhan Kose; Christopher Otrok; Charles H. Whiteman

2005-01-01

This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of these components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960-72), the period of common shocks (1972-86), and the globalizat...

Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar

2008-05-01

The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in macroeconomic aggregates for the UK at business cycle horizons. Using the common trend-common cycle restrictions, we estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and consumption were due to permanent shocks while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in investment. Our findings for income and consumption are consistent with real business cycle models which emphasize the role of aggregate supply shocks, while our findings for investment are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which emphasizes the role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining business cycles.

Will business cycles in the euro area converge? A critical survey of empirical research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Haan, J.; Inklaar, R.; Jong-A-Pin, R.

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and

Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anisa Caja

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

Business cycle synchronization in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergman, Ulf Michael; Jonung, Lars

2011-01-01

In this paper we study business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873–1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier...

Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles in Eurozone, UK and US

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Valle a Azevedo, J.

2008-01-01

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in the Euro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. We introduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varying association patterns in different

Business cycle and innovation activity in medium-high and high technology industry in Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dzikowski Piotr

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This article examines differences in an impact of business cycle phases on innovation activity in medium-high and high technology industry in Poland. It is assumed that each business cycle phase influences innovation activity in the same fashion, but its impact varies and it depends on the firm’s innovation activity. The higher innovation activity the less impact of business cycle. The scope of the survey relates to innovation in MHT and HT industry in Poland. The data concerns the innovation at the firm level and the diffusion “new for the company”. Innovation activity is defined by the following activities: (1 expenditure on research and development and investments in fixed assets not used so far such as: abuildings, premises and land; b machinery and equipment, c computer software; (2 implementation of new products and technological processes and (3 innovation cooperation. The methodological part of the analysis includes a logit modeling. The survey includes 1355 companies. Business cycle has a great influence on innovation activity in MTH and HT industry in Poland. The influence of recovery phase is positive whereas both stagnation and recession phases decrease the probability of innovation activity. The character of influence depends on the propensity to take innovation activity. The higher level of innovation activity the enterprises present the less influence of business cycle they get.

Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franziska Günzel-Jensen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In e-business freemium business models have become legitiate. However, current research provides litte insight on how the free and premium offring should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fil this gap by investiatig how the property ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initil life-cycle stages – opportunity recognitin, market entry, and market exploitatin. We fid that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initil life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons of trial-and-error, learning, exploratin, legitiizatin and resource acquisitin. A freemium business model can also serve as a nascent business model, though without a sustainable monetiatin component, for fiding a sustainable business model through a series of dynamic adjustments. With our fidings we contribute to the business model literature in three ways: First, our empirical fidings show the many-sidedness of the component ‘free’ in freemium business models. Free users are of importance for network building, exploratin and exploitatin and growth over tie. Moreover, free users enable directly and indirectly further resource acquisitin. Second, while previous literature has taken a stati perspectie, we contribute by illustratig the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new to the literature.

Business Cycle Dynamics in the Euro Area: A Factor-SVAR Approach

OpenAIRE

Atilim Seymen

2009-01-01

The study investigates the business cycle dynamics in the euro area using an empirical framework which comprises common global and euro area shocks as well as allows bilateral spillovers of country-specific shocks across the member economies. Three core questions lie at the heart of the analysis: (i) To what extent are the business cycles of the euro area countries driven by common and spillover shocks? (ii) What are the extent and sources of business cycle heterogeneity in the euro area? (ii...

Liquidity and the business cycle: Empirical evidence from the Greek banking sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vogiazas Sophocles

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In the aftermath of the global financial turmoil the negative market sentiment and the challenging macroeconomic environment in Greece have severely affected the banking sector, which faces funding and liquidity challenges, deteriorating asset quality, and weakening profitability. This paper aims to investigate how banks’ liquidity interacted with solvency and the business cycle during the period 2004-2010. To this end a panel of 17 Greek banks is utilized which, in conjunction with cointegrating techniques and one-way static and dynamic panel models, explores the presence and the strength of the relationship between banks’ liquidity and the business cycle, while allowing for the role of banks’ solvency. Addressing the liquidity risk of the Greek banking sector and the liquidity-solvency nexus remains largely an uncharted area. The results generated provide clear-cut evidence on the linkages between banks’ market liquidity and the business cycle, as reflected in the real GDP and the effective exchange rate. Yet the results display a transmission channel that runs from banks’ solvency to liquidity and from country risk to bank risk.

Numerical Exploration of Kaldorian Macrodynamics: Hopf-Neimark Bifurcations and Business Cycles with Fixed Exchange Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toichiro Asada

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We explore numerically a three-dimensional discrete-time Kaldorian macrodynamic model in an open economy with fixed exchange rates, focusing on the effects of variation of the model parameters, the speed of adjustment of the goods market α, and the degree of capital mobility β on the stability of equilibrium and on the existence of business cycles. We determine the stability region in the parameter space and find that increase of α destabilizes the equilibrium more quickly than increase of β. We determine the Hopf-Neimark bifurcation curve along which business cycles are generated, and discuss briefly the occurrence of Arnold tongues. Bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams are computed providing information on the emergence, persistence, and amplitude of the cycles and illustrating the complex dynamics involved. Examples of cycles and other attractors are presented. Finally, we discuss a two-dimensional variation of the model related to a “wealth effect,” called model 2, and show that in this case, α does not destabilize the equilibrium more quickly than β, and that a Hopf-Neimark bifurcation curve does not exist in the parameter space, therefore model 2 does not produce cycles.

Search in the product market and the real business cycle

OpenAIRE

Mathä, Thomas Y.; Pierrard, Olivier

2009-01-01

Abstract Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer markups, which depend on firms? relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclu...

Political Business Cycles in Turkey: A Fiscal Approach(Türkiye’de Politik İş Çevrimleri: Mali Bir Yaklaşım

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mesut KARAKAŞ

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Political business cycle studies have arisen as alternatives to pure business cycle studies. The studies in the political business cycle area mainly try to answer the question that whether the voters are manipulated in election periods or not. Also, the methods which the politicians use to be re-elected are uncovered. In this paper, we ask the question whether there are opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey or not. Our study focuses on the fiscal policies to discover the Turkish case. We use simple but powerful time series models in ARMA context to discover the relationships between political business cycles and fiscal variables. Empirical results show that there are quite perfect opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey.

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

OpenAIRE

Ayhan Kose; Eswar S Prasad; Marco Terrones

2003-01-01

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is mostly limited to industrial countries. One striking resu...

Deployment of e-health services - a business model engineering strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kijl, Björn; Nieuwenhuis, Lambert J M; Huis in 't Veld, Rianne M H A; Hermens, Hermie J; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam M R

2010-01-01

We designed a business model for deploying a myofeedback-based teletreatment service. An iterative and combined qualitative and quantitative action design approach was used for developing the business model and the related value network. Insights from surveys, desk research, expert interviews, workshops and quantitative modelling were combined to produce the first business model and then to refine it in three design cycles. The business model engineering strategy provided important insights which led to an improved, more viable and feasible business model and related value network design. Based on this experience, we conclude that the process of early stage business model engineering reduces risk and produces substantial savings in costs and resources related to service deployment.

Ischaemic heart disease mortality and the business cycle in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunn, A R

1979-01-01

Trends in Australian heart disease mortality were assessed for association with the business cycle. Correlation models of mortality and unemployment series were used to test for association. An indicator series of "national stress" was developed. The three series were analyzed in path models to quantify the links between unemployment, national stress, and heart disease. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and national stress were found to follow the business cycle. The two periods of accelerating IHD mortality coincided with economic recession. The proposed "wave hypothesis" links the trend in IHD mortality to the high unemployment of severe recession. The mortality trend describes a typical epidemic parabolic path from the Great Depression to 1975, with a smaller parabolic trend at the 1961 recession. These findings appear consistent with the hypothesis that heart disease is, to some degree, a point source epidemic arising with periods of severe economic recession. Forecasts under the hypothesis indicate a turning point in the mortality trend between 1976 and 1978. (Am J Public Health 69:772-781, 1979). PMID:453409

Effective forms of market orientation across the business cycle:a longitudinal analysis of business-to-business firms

OpenAIRE

Frösén, Johanna; Jaakkola, Matti; Churakova, Iya; Tikkanen, Henrikki

2016-01-01

Macroeconomic developments, such as the business cycle, have a remarkable influence on firms and their perfor- mance. In business-to-business (B-to-B) markets characterized by a strong emphasis on long-term customer relationships, market orientation (MO) provides a particularly important safeguard for firms against fluctuating market forces. Using panel data from an economic upturn and downturn, we examine the effectiveness of differ- ent forms of MO (i.e., customer orientation, competitor or...

A comparison of exchange economies within a monetary business cycle

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

2005-01-01

Roč. 73, č. 4 (2005), s. 542-562 ISSN 1463-6786 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/05/2172 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : monetary business cycle * credit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.319, year: 2005 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00458.x

Dynamics of the driven Goodwin business cycle equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonova, A. O.; Reznik, S. N.; Todorov, M. D.

2015-01-01

We study dynamics of the Goodwin nonlinear accelerator business cycle model with periodic forced autonomous investment I a (t) = a(1 – cos ωt), where a and ω are the amplitude and the frequency of investment. We give examples of the parameters a and ω when the chaotic oscillations of income are possible. We find the critical values of amplitude a cr (ω): if a > a cr (ω) the period of the income equals to the driving period T=2π/ω

Mathematical model of the competition life cycle under limited resources conditions: Problem statement for business community

Science.gov (United States)

Shelomentsev, A. G.; Medvedev, M. A.; Berg, D. B.; Lapshina, S. N.; Taubayev, A. A.; Davletbaev, R. H.; Savina, D. V.

2017-12-01

Present study is devoted to the development of competition life cycle mathematical model in the closed business community with limited resources. Growth of each agent is determined by the balance of input and output resource flows: input (cash) flow W is covering the variable V and constant C costs and growth dA/dt of the agent's assets A. Value of V is proportional to assets A that allows us to write down a first order non-stationary differential equation of the agent growth. Model includes the number of such equations due to the number of agents. The amount of resources that is available for agents vary in time. The balances of their input and output flows are changing correspondingly to the different stages of the competition life cycle. According to the theory of systems, the most complete description of any object or process is the model of its life cycle. Such a model describes all stages of its development: from the appearance ("birth") through development ("growth") to extinction ("death"). The model of the evolution of an individual firm, not contradicting the economic meaning of events actually observed in the market, is the desired result from modern AVMs for applied use. With a correct description of the market, rules for participants' actions, restrictions, forecasts can be obtained, which modern mathematics and the economy can not give.

Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?

OpenAIRE

Berge, Travis

2012-01-01

The past 30 years have been witness to an inexorable change in the degree to which economies are connected internationally. At the same time, the 2007-2008 recession was the first ‘global recession’ in decades. This article explores how international trade and cross-border holdings financial assets impact the synchronization of business cycles internationally. The paper begins by producing chronologies of business cycle turning points for a group of 32 major economies covering 40 years of his...

Unemployment Duration over the Business Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosholm, Michael

1996-01-01

In this paper I study the way in which individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, as measured by the aggregate unemployment rate. I decompose the cyclical variations in observed unemployment durations into a composition al and a general part. The compositional part consists...

Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend

OpenAIRE

Boz, Emine; Daude, Christian; Durdu, C. Bora

2011-01-01

The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an equilibrium business cycle model in which the agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks. When formulating expectations, they assign some probability ...

The convergence of European business cycles 1978-2000

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, Paul; Mounfield, Craig

2002-05-01

The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union (EU) is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary policy which is appropriate to the stage of the cycle of the Euro zone economies. We consider the annual rates of real GDP growth on a quarterly basis in the large core economies of the EU (France, Germany and Italy, plus The Netherlands) over the period 1978Q1-2000Q3. An important empirical question is the degree to which the correlations between these growth rates contain true information rather than noise. The technique of random matrix theory is able to answer this question, and has been recently applied successfully in the physics journals to financial markets data. We find that the correlations between the growth rates of the core EU economies contain substantial amounts of true information, and exhibit considerable stability over time. Even in the late 1970s and early 1980s, these economies moved together closely over the course of the business cycle. There was a slight loosening at the time of German re-unification, but the economies are now, if anything, even more closely correlated. As a benchmark for comparison, we add a series to the EU core data set which by construction is uncorrelated with these business cycles. We then analyse the EU core plus Spain, a country which has attached great importance to greater integration with Europe. In the early part of the period examined, the results are very similar to those obtained with the data set of the EU core plus the random series. However, there is a clear trend in the results, which provide strong evidence to support the view that the Spanish economy has now become closely converged with the core EU economies in terms of its movements over the business cycle. In contrast, the results obtained with a data set of the EU core plus the UK show no such trend. In the

Business Model Innovation: How Iconic Business Models Emerge

OpenAIRE

Mikhalkina, T.; Cabantous, L.

2015-01-01

Despite ample research on the topic of business model innovation, little is known about the cognitive processes whereby some innovative business models gain the status of iconic representations of particular types of firms. This study addresses the question: How do iconic business models emerge? In other words: How do innovative business models become prototypical exemplars for new categories of firms? We focus on the case of Airbnb, and analyze how six mainstream business media publications ...

Consumer confidence or the business cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

2014-01-01

Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

The Limits of Schumpeter's Business Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Esben Sloth

2006-01-01

Schumpeter designed Business Cycles as his major work, but it has never received much attention. The problem is partly related to its complex treatment of the theory of waveform economic evolution and the related study of the statistics and history of 150 years of capitalist evolution, but the book...

Transitions to Chaos in a Seven-Equation Model of the Business Cycle with Income Redistribution and Private Debt

Science.gov (United States)

Colacchio, Giorgio

In the present paper, we investigate the chaotic implications of a seven-equation model of the business cycle. The main distinguishing features of the model are related to: (a) the role played by the bargaining power in the process of income redistribution; (b) the consideration of hysteresis effects on workers’ consumption demand; (c) the effect of public expenditure on labor productivity. In addition, the role played by the agents’ memory on the actual dynamics of the economic system, with particular regard to their learning-by-doing process, is particularly emphasized. Under all these assumptions, the system exhibits a rich and complex phenomenology, characterized by a number of transitions to chaos (in particular via sequences of period doubling bifurcations), aperiodic behavior, bistability, tristability, etc. We maintain that our analysis takes us another step forward in the building of a more general model of the business cycle. In particular, the model we propose may be of help in the explanation of some peculiar features of advanced capitalist economies, with particular regard to the role played by the State in the determination of agents’ disposable income, to the debt dynamics of the various macroagents, and to the main dilemmas of economic policy. More in general, the main lesson one learns from our investigation is that “disequilibrium paths”, characterized by “complicated” dynamics which, more often than not, takes the form of aperiodic motion, should be considered as the “normal” state of the system.

Last hired, first fired? Black-white unemployment and the business cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Couch, Kenneth A; Fairlie, Robert

2010-02-01

Studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989-2004, this article provides the first detailed examination of labor market transitions for prime-age black and white men to test the last hired, first fired hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks appear to be initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are drawn from nonparticipation. The narrowing of the racial unemployment gap near the peak of the business cycle is driven by a reduction in the rate of job loss for blacks rather than increases in hiring.

Business Cycle Synchronization During US Recessions Since the Beginning of the 1870's

OpenAIRE

Nikolaos Antonakakis

2012-01-01

This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization, results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 econ...

Stabilization of business cycles of finance agents using nonlinear optimal control

Science.gov (United States)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Sarno, D.

2017-11-01

Stabilization of the business cycles of interconnected finance agents is performed with the use of a new nonlinear optimal control method. First, the dynamics of the interacting finance agents and of the associated business cycles is described by a modeled of coupled nonlinear oscillators. Next, this dynamic model undergoes approximate linearization round a temporary operating point which is defined by the present value of the system's state vector and the last value of the control inputs vector that was exerted on it. The linearization procedure is based on Taylor series expansion of the dynamic model and on the computation of Jacobian matrices. The modelling error, which is due to the truncation of higher-order terms in the Taylor series expansion is considered as a disturbance which is compensated by the robustness of the control loop. Next, for the linearized model of the interacting finance agents, an H-infinity feedback controller is designed. The computation of the feedback control gain requires the solution of an algebraic Riccati equation at each iteration of the control algorithm. Through Lyapunov stability analysis it is proven that the control scheme satisfies an H-infinity tracking performance criterion, which signifies elevated robustness against modelling uncertainty and external perturbations. Moreover, under moderate conditions the global asymptotic stability features of the control loop are proven.

Managing Service Development (SaaS) as a project: business process modeling

OpenAIRE

Iliadi, Vasiliki; Ηλιάδη, Βασιλική

2017-01-01

In the context of the present thesis, we will be studying core principles of Business Process Management, and how we can take advantage of them in combination with Project Management Methodologies and modeling tools in the context of Software as a Service businesses and their development. Initially we provide the reader with an introduction to Business Process Management, how it can be used, and how the life cycle is structured. We further define the first three phases of the life cycle to...

Incidence of remuneration to capital on the colombian business cycle from 1980 to 2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio César Chamorro Futinico

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The business cycle was one of the most important issues in the economic agendafrom the late 19th Century to the mid 20th Century. The importance of the studylay in the priority of finding the causes and duration of economic crisis, and tobe able to determine or predict how often they would happen. Currently, and with the recent financial crisis in the United States (2008 and in Colombia(1998-2009, among others, this study has gained importance once more. Thispaper presents a number of points of view on the matter and focuses on an approach that has been given very little consideration: Michal Kalecki’s theory,which provides a basis for analyzing the Colombian business cycle from 1980to 2005, and thus compare the model estimated through the Three-Stage LeastSquares (3SLS method with the behavior of the remuneration to capital during the same period. Based on this, a close relation is found between the latter, the decision to invest and, therefore, the declining phase of the business cycle.

Business Model Innovation

OpenAIRE

Dodgson, Mark; Gann, David; Phillips, Nelson; Massa, Lorenzo; Tucci, Christopher

2014-01-01

The chapter offers a broad review of the literature at the nexus between Business Models and innovation studies, and examines the notion of Business Model Innovation in three different situations: Business Model Design in newly formed organizations, Business Model Reconfiguration in incumbent firms, and Business Model Innovation in the broad context of sustainability. Tools and perspectives to make sense of Business Models and support managers and entrepreneurs in dealing with Business Model ...

BUSINESS CYCLES, ELECTORAL CYCLES. TOWARD A THEORETICAL FRAME OF INTERACTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BOGDAN-LUCIAN DOSPINESCU

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The idea of cyclical movement of a system: be it political, economic, institutional, is one of the constants of critical thinking. In this sense, there is a natural cyclic movement that cannot be avoided (only amplified or diminished and is connected with the nature of these systems. The economy follows a cyclical movement; a period of growth follows a period of decline, and so on. So does popularity for political parties or leaders. In this paper, I explore the links between the business cycles and electoral cycles. For this purpose, I introduce the concept of electoral perception cycles. My hypothesis is that popularity of political parties and leaders follow a cyclical evolution, both on short and long term. I show how perception cycles can impact the “political business cycle theory”. There is great interest in political science literature for the factors that influence the fluctuations in Presidents’ popularity, especially from United States. However, very little has been said about Romania’s case. I investigate the hypothesis of electoral perception cycles looking at the popularity of former president Traian Basescu, over his two terms. The variable used to measure popularity is favorability, measured in national surveys, done face to face, on representative samplez, of around 1000 subjects. I’ve correlated the fluctuations in favorability over time, with key public events or political decisions taken by Traian Băsescu. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, there are significant short term fluctuations (short term perception cycles and they are correlated with major events on the agenda. I would point the following key moments: 1. The referendum for dismissal of the President in May 2007 – Traian Băsescu’s favorability increased by 7 percentage points; 2. The referendum for unicameral Parliament with 300 MPs in the fall of 2009. Coupled with victory in the presidential election, it lead to an increase of 10 percentage

How Business Cycles Affect the Healthcare Sector: A Cross-country Investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cleeren, Kathleen; Lamey, Lien; Meyer, Jan-Hinrich; De Ruyter, Ko

2016-07-01

The long-term relationship between the general economy and healthcare expenditures has been extensively researched, to explain differences in healthcare spending between countries, but the midterm (i.e., business cycle) perspective has been overlooked. This study explores business cycle sensitivity in both public and private parts of the healthcare sector across 32 countries. Responses to the business cycle vary notably, both across spending sources and across countries. Whereas in some countries, consumers and/or governments cut back, in others, private and/or public healthcare buyers tend to spend more. We also assess long-term consequences of business cycle sensitivity and show that public cost cutting during economic downturns deflates the mortality rates, whereas private cut backs increase the long-term growth in total healthcare expenditures. Finally, multiple factors help explain variability in cyclical sensitivity. Private cost cuts during economic downturns are smaller in countries with a predominantly publicly funded healthcare system and more preventive public activities. Public cut backs during contractions are smaller in countries that rely more on tax-based resources rather than social health insurances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Has accession to the EU affected business cycles?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panagiotis EVANGELOPOULOS

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This paper undertakes to explain the relationship between EU accession and the length of business cycles, focusing specifically on whether participation in a multinational organization has, or has not, altered the length of the cycle. Employing a sample of nine EU countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK we focused initially on annual data for per capita growth in GDP over a period of 59 years (1950-2008. For each country the sample was divided into two parts, one covering the period preceding accession to the EU and one is covering the accession year and succeeding years. Then, eliminating the background noise with the use of a periodogram, we proceeded to examine their spectral density plots. The results indicated that in the first years following accession, the countries tended to experience shorter cycles than they had previously. In the second phase the cycles were of the same duration as previous cycles. Finally, after a period of some years, the length of the cycles increased, as suggested by the J-shaped curve. This J-shaped growth curve applies for the countries that have joined the EU, strongly suggesting a causal relationship between accession to the EU and these specific characterristics of the curve. We cross-checked with a set of four non-EU member countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey and found no change in the length of the business cycle in these countries.

Business model for business rules

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eline Haan; Martin Zoet; Koen Smit

2014-01-01

Business rule models are widely applied, standalone and embedded in smart objects. They have become segregated from information technology and they are now a valuable asset in their own right. As more business rule models are becoming assets, business models to monetize these assets are designed.

The US Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach

OpenAIRE

Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin

2016-01-01

We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classic...

Business cycles in oil economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mutairi, N.H.

1991-01-01

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oil price is ignored; the few studies that use oil price as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and 'structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oil price impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oil price are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oil price are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon

International business cycle synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a novel network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Antonakakis, Nikolaos; Gogas, Periklis; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; Sarantitis, Georgios Antonios

2016-04-01

In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.

A Comparison of Business Cycles Synchronization in the Euro Area and Some Potential Monetary Unions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Kappel

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Synchronization of business cycle is one of the main criteria for creation of a monetary union. With increasing synchronization of business cycle, a probability of occurrence of demand and supply shocks, which are asymmetric, decreases. The aim of this contribution is to evaluate synchronicity of business cycle in the euro area and some potential monetary unions. There are MERCOSUR (i.e. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, NAFTA (Canada, Mexico and the United States of America. For this aim, correlation analysis and two indexes of cyclical components of GDP are used. The cyclical components of GDP are obtained due to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results indicate a high degree of business cycles synchronization among states of the euro area (especially in countries of so called core of the euro area and states of NAFTA. In opposite, a lower degree of business cycles synchronization was reached among states of MERCOSUR. According to the criterion of business cycle synchronization, NAFTA is more appropriate candidate than MERCOSUR for creation monetary area.

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of the variability of dynamics and transition to chaos in the business cycles model

Science.gov (United States)

Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana

2018-01-01

A problem of mathematical modeling of complex stochastic processes in macroeconomics is discussed. For the description of dynamics of income and capital stock, the well-known Kaldor model of business cycles is used as a basic example. The aim of the paper is to give an overview of the variety of stochastic phenomena which occur in Kaldor model forced by additive and parametric random noise. We study a generation of small- and large-amplitude stochastic oscillations, and their mixed-mode intermittency. To analyze these phenomena, we suggest a constructive approach combining the study of the peculiarities of deterministic phase portrait, and stochastic sensitivity of attractors. We show how parametric noise can stabilize the unstable equilibrium and transform dynamics of Kaldor system from order to chaos.

Business Models and Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai J.; Saebi, Tina

2018-01-01

While research on business models and business model innovation continue to exhibit growth, the field is still, even after more than two decades of research, characterized by a striking lack of cumulative theorizing and an opportunistic borrowing of more or less related ideas from neighbouring...

Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Barbara; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Uhlendorff, Arne

2017-06-01

In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women's first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.

A business case method for business models

OpenAIRE

Meertens, Lucas Onno; Starreveld, E.; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria; Shishkov, Boris

2013-01-01

Intuitively, business cases and business models are closely connected. However, a thorough literature review revealed no research on the combination of them. Besides that, little is written on the evaluation of business models at all. This makes it difficult to compare different business model alternatives and choose the best one. In this article, we develop a business case method to objectively compare business models. It is an eight-step method, starting with business drivers and ending wit...

Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles

OpenAIRE

J.M. BERK

1997-01-01

The interdependence between business cycles of different countries has grown in recent decades. Many factors act as conductors of cyclical fluctuations between countries. In this context, the influence of trade flows in the global transmission of business cycles is examined. The author aims to identify empirically the line of causality of international cyclical movements as suggested by trade flows, presenting an estimate of the quantitive importance of trade flows as transmission channel.

Time-to-Degree and the Business Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Messer, Dolores; Wolter, Stefan C.

2010-01-01

This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation trying to explain individual time-to-degree variances with business cycle fluctuations. Assuming that students determine the optimum study length at university weighing up the cost of an additional semester against the consumption benefit of studying and not yet working, the general…

Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Hakan Yilmazkuday

2014-01-01

The e¡èects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using five macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technolo...

Business Model and Replication Study of BIG HIT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Guangling; Ravn Nielsen, Eva

(SymbioFCell) and other stakeholders, the business model is developed within the 1st year of the project. The cost analysis of this project considers the life cycle of hydrogen starting from the hydrogen production, transportation, and consumption. The cost includes the fixed cost for equipment...... at a refuelling station to fuel a fleet of up to 10 electric-hydrogen range extended vans. The present business model report includes a financial analysis of the demonstration project and should provide an early warning if there is anything that would require the project to be altered (for example, to negotiate...... system boundary includes the hydrogen production process, hydrogen transportation, and hydrogen consumption. At each stage, the data has been collected from the project partners and equipment suppliers/manufacturers. The cost of hydrogen is calculated through the life cycle of hydrogen production...

Business Model Visualization

OpenAIRE

Zagorsek, Branislav

2013-01-01

Business model describes the company’s most important activities, proposed value, and the compensation for the value. Business model visualization enables to simply and systematically capture and describe the most important components of the business model while the standardization of the concept allows the comparison between companies. There are several possibilities how to visualize the model. The aim of this paper is to describe the options for business model visualization and business mod...

Business Model Design: Lessons Learned from Tesla Motors

OpenAIRE

Chen , Yurong; Perez , Yannick

2015-01-01

International audience; Electric vehicle (EV) industry is still in the introduction stage in product life cycle, and dominant design remains unclear. EV companies, both incumbent from the car industry and new comers, have long taken numerous endeavors to promote EV in the niche market by providing innovative products and business models. While most carmakers still take 'business as usual' approach for developing their EV production and offers, Tesla Motors, an EV entrepreneurial firm, stands ...

Business modelling agility : Turning ideas into business

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heikkila, J.; Heikkila, M.; Bouwman, W.A.G.A.

2015-01-01

Business Model Innovation is attracting more and more attention from business as well as from academics. Business Model Innovation deals with both technological and knowledge related changes that either may disrupt or sustain existing product/market strategies. Timing of Business Model Innovation

Business cycles, migration and health.

Science.gov (United States)

Halliday, Timothy J

2007-04-01

We investigate the proposition that illness poses as an obstacle to one's ability to use migration to hedge the business cycle. We employ data on migration, regional unemployment rates and health status from 10 years (1984-1993) of the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our results provide considerable for support this proposition. The evidence is the strongest for men, but we also find weaker evidence for married women. These results suggest that--ceterus paribus--aggregate health outcomes in an area should improve when the regional economy expands.

The Impact of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Graduate School Enrollment

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Matthew T.

2013-01-01

This paper adds to the understanding of student decisions about graduate school attendance by studying the magnitude of the effect of business cycle fluctuations on enrollment. I use data on graduate school enrollment from the Current Population Survey and statewide variation in unemployment rates across time to proxy for changes in business cycle…

The influence of economic business cycles on United States suicide rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Wasserman, I M

1984-01-01

A number of social science investigators have shown that a downturn in the economy leads to an increase in the suicide rate. However, the previous works on the subject are flawed by the fact that they employ years as their temporal unit of analysis. This time period is so large that it makes it difficult for investigators to precisely determine the length of the lag effect, while at the same time removing the autocorrelation effects. Also, although most works on suicide and the business cycle employ unemployment as a measure of a downturn in the business cycle, the average duration of unemployment represents a better measure for determining the social impact of an economic downturn. From 1947 to 1977 the average monthly duration of unemployment is statistically related to the suicide rate using multivariate time-series analysis. From 1910 to 1939 the Ayres business index, a surrogate measure for movement in the business cycle, is statistically related to the monthly suicide rate. An examination of the findings confirms that in most cases a downturn in the economy causes an increase in the suicide rate.

A business case method for business models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meertens, Lucas Onno; Starreveld, E.; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria; Shishkov, Boris

2013-01-01

Intuitively, business cases and business models are closely connected. However, a thorough literature review revealed no research on the combination of them. Besides that, little is written on the evaluation of business models at all. This makes it difficult to compare different business model

Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States: a vector autoregressive model.

Science.gov (United States)

Mocan, N H

1990-01-01

"Using vector-autoregressions...this paper shows that fertility moves countercyclically over the business cycle....[It] shows that the United States fertility is not governed by a deterministic trend as was assumed by previous studies. Rather, fertility evolves around a stochastic trend. It is shown that a bivariate analysis between fertility and unemployment yields a procyclical picture of fertility. However, when one considers the effects on fertility of early marriages and the divorce behavior as well as economic activity, fertility moves countercyclically." excerpt

The South African business cycle: what has changed?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Burger

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This paper identifies the basic empirical characteristics and changes of the South African business cycle since 1960. As such, the paper examines changes in volatility as well as the co-movement between several national account variables and real GDP. To examine the co-movements the paper follows Kydland and Prescott, Gavin and Kydland as well as Bergman, Bordo and Jonung and uses correlation coefficients and Granger causality tests. Following Ramos, the paper extends the results of the Granger causality tests using variance decomposition analysis in the context of a VAR (vector auto regression to establish the contribution that selected national account variables make to the h-period-ahead forecast error variance of themselves and the other variables included in the VARs. The paper indicates that since 1994 volatility in the South African economy decreased significantly, while durable consumption appears to lead the business cycle.

The Keynesian Approach of Business Cycle and Economic Crises and its Criticism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionela Bălțătescu

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to briefly present the Keynesian explanation of business cycle, economic fluctuation and crises, and also the solutions proposed from Keynesian perspective to the economic problems that characterize the bust phases of the business cycles (unemployment, recessions. In the fourth section of the article some criticisms of the Keynesian theoretical approach of the economic crises are considered and summarized.

An approximate analysis of expected cycle time in business process execution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ha, B.H.; Reijers, H.A.; Bae, J.; Bae, H.; Eder, J.; Dustdar, S

2006-01-01

The accurate prediction of business process performance during its design phase can facilitate the assessment of existing processes and the generation of alternatives. In this paper, an approximation method to estimate the cycle time of a business process is introduced. First, we propose a process

Sustainable Business Models - A Need For New And Sustainable Business Models

OpenAIRE

Heir, Nina

2016-01-01

Business plays a key role for the sustainable development of the society. However, business models of today do not have a sustainable perspective, indicating that they do not balance the three dimensions of sustainability; the social, environmental and economical dimension. A change at the business model level is therefore required for sustainable business models to become the new business models of tomorrow. The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of how companies can con...

Busy period analysis, rare events and transient behavior in fluid flow models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Søren Asmussen

1994-01-01

Full Text Available We consider a process {(Jt,Vt}t≥0 on E×[0,∞, such that {Jt} is a Markov process with finite state space E, and {Vt} has a linear drift ri on intervals where Jt=i and reflection at 0. Such a process arises as a fluid flow model of current interest in telecommunications engineering for the purpose of modeling ATM technology. We compute the mean of the busy period and related first passage times, show that the probability of buffer overflow within a busy cycle is approximately exponential, and give conditioned limit theorems for the busy cycle with implications for quick simulation. Further, various inequalities and approximations for transient behavior are given. Also explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the busy period are found. Mathematically, the key tool is first passage probabilities and exponential change of measure for Markov additive processes.

Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations

OpenAIRE

Erdenebat Bataa; Denise R. Osborn; Marianne Sensier; Dick van Dijk

2009-01-01

We investigate changes in international business cycle affiliations using an iterative procedure for detecting system-wide structural breaks. We analyze GDP growth rates in two systems, one with the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada and the other for the Euro-area countries of France, Germany and Italy. We discover that international dynamic interactions change in both the mid-1980s and early 1990s, with such changes being particularly important for studying influences on the aggregate Euro-area. ...

Designing an ICT tool platform to support SME business model innovation: Results of a first design cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Reuver, G.A.; Athanasopoulou, A.; Haaker, T.I.; Roelfsema, M.; Riedle, M; Breitfuss, G.

2016-01-01

Business model innovation (BMI) is becoming increasingly relevant for enterprises as they are faced with profound changes like digitalization. While business model thinking in academia has advanced, practical tooling that supports business model innovation for small and medium sized enterprises

Advertising and price effectiveness over the business cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gijsenberg, Maarten; van Heerde, Harald; Dekimpe, Marnik G.; Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E. M.

2009-01-01

In this study, the authors conduct a systematic investigation on the evolution in the effectiveness of two important marketing mix instruments, advertising and price, over the business cycle. Analyses are based on 163 branded products in 37 mature CPG categories in the UK, and this for a period of

National Business Cycles and Community Competition for Jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasarda, John D.; Irwin, Michael D.

1991-01-01

Analysis of employment change data for 3,101 counties during recent national recession and recovery periods found that factors derived from human ecological theory (density, infrastructure age, unionization, labor force education, and crime rate) best predicted local competitive dynamics across all business-cycle phases. Contains 60 references.…

The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

OpenAIRE

Nathan McLellan; Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim

2004-01-01

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy ha...

Business model innovation vs. business model inertia: The role of disruptive technologies

OpenAIRE

Vorbach, Stefan; Wipfler, Harald; Schimpf, Sven

2017-01-01

This contribution addresses the impact of disruptive technologies on business model innovation. While such technologies have the potential to significantly alter the way in which businesses operate, business model inertia hinders companies from adopting the new technological possibilities. Little research has focused on the difficulties incumbents face when innovating their business models. By reviewing current literature on business model innovation, this paper summarizes challenges companie...

Making business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig; Buur, Jacob

2014-01-01

Well-established companies are currently struggling to secure profits due to the pressure from new players' business models as they take advantage of communication technology and new business-model configurations. Because of this, the business model research field flourishes currently; however, t...

A model for Business Intelligence Systems’ Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manole VELICANU

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Often, Business Intelligence Systems (BIS require historical data or data collected from var-ious sources. The solution is found in data warehouses, which are the main technology used to extract, transform, load and store data in the organizational Business Intelligence projects. The development cycle of a data warehouse involves lots of resources, time, high costs and above all, it is built only for some specific tasks. In this paper, we’ll present some of the aspects of the BI systems’ development such as: architecture, lifecycle, modeling techniques and finally, some evaluation criteria for the system’s performance.

Creating a Business Case from a Business Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meertens, Lucas Onno; Starreveld, Eelco; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria; Shishkov, Boris

2014-01-01

Intuitively, business cases and business models are closely connected. However, a thorough literature review revealed no research on the combination of them. Besides that, little is written on the evaluation of business models at all. This makes it difficult to compare different business model

Semantic Business Process Modeling

OpenAIRE

Markovic, Ivan

2010-01-01

This book presents a process-oriented business modeling framework based on semantic technologies. The framework consists of modeling languages, methods, and tools that allow for semantic modeling of business motivation, business policies and rules, and business processes. Quality of the proposed modeling framework is evaluated based on the modeling content of SAP Solution Composer and several real-world business scenarios.

Should we expect financial globalization to have significant effects on business cycles?

OpenAIRE

Iversen, Jens

2009-01-01

Empirical research suggests that financial globalization has insignificant effects on business cycles. Based on standard theoretical models it might be conjectured that the effects should be significant. I show that this conjecture is wrong. Theoretical effects of financial globalization can be determined to any level of precision by expanding the underlying artificial samples. In contrast, in the data the effects are imprecisely estimated because of short samples. I show that if the conclusi...

Patterns and determinants of business cycle synchronization in the enlarged European Economic and Monetary Union

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulia SIEDSCHLAG

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper provides empirical evidence about the degree of business cycle synchronization between the euro area countries and eight new European Union member states. We analyze the direct and indirect effects of similarity of economic structures and trade intensity on the co-movement of fluctuations of economic activity across these countries and find that bilateral similarity of economic structures and trade intensity were positively and significantly associated with business cycle correlations. This result is robust to different estimation techniques. Similarity of economic structures had an additional indirect positive effect on business cycle synchronization via its positive effect on trade intensity. The bilateral business cycle correlations are found to be endogenous with respect to bilateral similarity of economic structures and bilateral trade intensity suggesting that the new European Union countries will better satisfy the Optimum Currency Area criteria after the adoption of the euro.

Formation of the Cycle of Business Processes of Management of Marketing Activity of a Transport Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Horielov Dmytro O.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to problems of organisation of the process of management of marketing activity of an enterprise. It specifies the model of services of a transport enterprise and provides levels of services and their structure: basic, real, expanded, expected and prospective. The article offers to differentiate planning and realisation of the transportation service by its levels, each of which would correspond with a separate business process of management. It reveals specific features of use of instruments of the traditional, internal and interactive marketing in the market of transportation services. It identifies the structure of the object when managing marketing activity of a transportation enterprise. The article uses the Deming cycle to formulate general principles of formation of business processes of management of marketing activity: “Motivation – Plan – Do – Check – Act”. The proposed cycle would ensure continuous improvement of the said business processes of an enterprise in accordance with international quality standards (ISO.

Business Cycle Volatility and Globalization: A Survey

OpenAIRE

Claudia M. Buch

2002-01-01

The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the possibility that business cycle volatility might increase. Rapid and badly co-ordinated capital account liberalization has been blamed for enhancing the vulnerability of emerging markets to unstable in...

STRUCTURAL-FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS COMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE ECONOMIC SPECIALISTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zotova-Sadylo Yelena Yurievna

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose The structural-functional model of professional business communication development of future economic specialists is presented by the author. Its basic components, purpose, function, principles, methods of its practical realization are characterized in the article. Methodology The considered model is aimed at providing advanced and competent levels of professional business communication / cross-cultural business communication of future specialists in economics by means of relevant to the problem special course within a system of humanitarian cycle disciplines, and integrated class hours and extracurricular activity. The main feature of the special course is its integrated character determined by the necessity to synthesize contents of humanitarian cycle disciplines for the purpose of training material comprehensive awareness. Results In this context focused professional extracurricular activity carried out in strict accordance with an overall objective of young specialist training is effective. Successful implementation of structural functional model is possible providing that integrated approach to creative specialists training by means of entire educational and extracurricular activity system.

Dynamic Analysis for a Kaldor–Kalecki Model of Business Cycle with Time Delay and Diffusion Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjie Hu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamics behaviors of Kaldor–Kalecki business cycle model with diffusion effect and time delay under the Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. First the conditions of time-independent and time-dependent stability are investigated. Then, we find that the time delay can give rise to the Hopf bifurcation when the time delay passes a critical value. Moreover, the normal form of Hopf bifurcations is obtained by using the center manifold theorem and normal form theory of the partial differential equation, which can determine the bifurcation direction and the stability of the periodic solutions. Finally, numerical results not only validate the obtained theorems, but also show that the diffusion coefficients play a key role in the spatial pattern. With the diffusion coefficients increasing, different patterns appear.

Various problems in establishment of fuel cycle business in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murata, Hiroshi

1985-01-01

Since Japan instituted the Atomic Energy Act in 1956, and organized the Atomic Energy Commission, as the fundamental policy of the peaceful use of atomic energy, the industrialization and establishment of fuel cycle technology have been advanced as well as the development of power reactors. The consistent and harmonious industrialization of uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, reprocessing, the utilization of recovered plutonium and uranium, and the storage, treatment and disposal of wastes has been the target. As the nuclear power generation in Japan grew, the enhancement of the various factors of nuclear fuel cycle as the base of supporting nuclear power generation has become necessary. The effort of technical development has been continued in the fields of uranium enrichment, fuel reprocessing, plutonium fuel and waste treatment by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and related industries. The plan and present status of nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan, the problems such as the roles of the government and private enterprises, technology transfer, the economy of nuclear fuel cycle business, the industrialization of mixed oxide fuel fabrication, nuclear nonproliferation policy and location are discussed. (Kako, I.)

Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reijnders, J.P.G.

This paper contains a short history of business cycle theory. It is argued that in the course of time the emphasis shifted from a mainly exogenous to a mainly endogenous explanation of the cycle. After the integration of the two approaches in the so-called impulse and propagation theory, the balance

Business Process Simulation: Requirements for Business and Resource Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrius Rima

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN is to provide easily understandable graphical representation of business process. Thus BPMN is widely used and applied in various areas one of them being a business process simulation. This paper addresses some BPMN model based business process simulation problems. The paper formulate requirements for business process and resource models in enabling their use for business process simulation.

Why business models matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Magretta, Joan

2002-05-01

"Business model" was one of the great buzz-words of the Internet boom. A company didn't need a strategy, a special competence, or even any customers--all it needed was a Web-based business model that promised wild profits in some distant, ill-defined future. Many people--investors, entrepreneurs, and executives alike--fell for the fantasy and got burned. And as the inevitable counterreaction played out, the concept of the business model fell out of fashion nearly as quickly as the .com appendage itself. That's a shame. As Joan Magretta explains, a good business model remains essential to every successful organization, whether it's a new venture or an established player. To help managers apply the concept successfully, she defines what a business model is and how it complements a smart competitive strategy. Business models are, at heart, stories that explain how enterprises work. Like a good story, a robust business model contains precisely delineated characters, plausible motivations, and a plot that turns on an insight about value. It answers certain questions: Who is the customer? How do we make money? What underlying economic logic explains how we can deliver value to customers at an appropriate cost? Every viable organization is built on a sound business model, but a business model isn't a strategy, even though many people use the terms interchangeably. Business models describe, as a system, how the pieces of a business fit together. But they don't factor in one critical dimension of performance: competition. That's the job of strategy. Illustrated with examples from companies like American Express, EuroDisney, WalMart, and Dell Computer, this article clarifies the concepts of business models and strategy, which are fundamental to every company's performance.

Business Model Canvas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D'Souza, Austin

2013-01-01

Presentatie gegeven op 13 mei 2013 op de bijeenkomst "Business Model Canvas Challenge Assen".
Het Business Model Canvas is ontworpen door Alex Osterwalder. Het model werkt zeer overzichtelijk en bestaat uit negen bouwstenen.

Designing Business Model Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to base organisational change on the firm's business model, an approach that research has only recently start to address. This study adopts a process-based perspective on business models and insights from a variety of theories as the basis for the development of ideas...... on the design of business model change. This paper offers a new, process-based strategic analytical artefact for the design of business model change, consisting of three main phases. Designing business model change as suggested in this paper allows ex ante analysis of alternative scenarios of change...

Using complex networks to characterize international business cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Caraiani, Petre

2013-01-01

There is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles. We construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries' GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples. The use of complex networks is valuable for understanding the business cycle comovements at an international level.

Using complex networks to characterize international business cycles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petre Caraiani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries' GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples. CONCLUSION: The use of complex networks is valuable for understanding the business cycle comovements at an international level.

Rokkashomura: debut of the nuclear fuel cycle business

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

Japan Nuclear Fuel Industries and local governments signed the safety agreement, and the work began to initiate the operation of a uranium enrichment plant. In this way, the national Rokkashomura project to be constructed with the total cost of 1.2 trillion yen marked the debut of nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan. The public hearing concerning the low level radioactive waste storage facility was finished. However, a fuel reprocessing plant has not advanced since the national government did not clarify the policy for the management of high level rad-waste from the plant. Gubernatorial election was the best thing to happen for the public acceptance, and the local opposition movement lost steam. The operation of the uranium enrichment plant is to begin next January, and the construction of the low level waste storage facility proceeds on schedule. Regarding the fuel reprocessing plant, the public hearing is to be held in autumn, but it faces difficulties. The siting of nuclear fuel cycle facilities has already produced benefits for the local economy. 18 business establishments representing 15 firms have so far decided to open in Aomori Prefecture. JNFI and JNFS began the specific study for merger. (K.I.)

Political Business Cycle on the Agricultural Supports in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Burak ONEMLI

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates whether there is a political business cycle (PBC on the agricultural supports in the Turkish economy. In this respect, we investigate the policies of different Turkish governments for the agricultural supports measured by the producer support estimates for the period 1986-2011. To this end, first the series for the producer support estimates are filtered by the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and then an econometric model is employed to estimate the effects of a set of explanatory variables including the economic crisis, the opportunistic and the partisan characteristics of the incumbent parties. Our results provide limited support for the opportunistic type PBC. Moreover, it seems that some Turkish governments have created the partisanship type PBCs

The business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries: evidence from the U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Asfaw, Abay; Pana-Cryan, Regina; Rosa, Roger

2011-02-01

The current study explored the association between the business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries to identify cyclically sensitive industries and the relative contribution of physical capital and labor utilization within industries. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfatal injury rates from 1976 through 2007 were examined across five industry sectors with respect to several macroeconomic indicators. Within industries, injury associations with utilization of labor and physical capital over time were tested using time series regression methods. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycle indicators and injury incidence were observed in mining, construction, and manufacturing but not in agriculture or trade. Physical capital utilization was the highest potential contributor to injuries in mining while labor utilization was the highest potential contributor in construction. In manufacturing each effect had a similar association with injuries. The incidence of workplace injury is associated with the business cycle. However, the degree of association and the mechanisms through with the business cycle affects the incidence of workplace injuries was not the same across industries. The results suggest that firms in the construction, manufacturing, and mining industries should take additional precautionary safety measures during cyclical upturns. Potential differences among industries in the mechanisms through which the business cycle affects injury incidence suggest different protective strategies for those industries. For example, in construction, additional efforts might be undertaken to ensure workers are adequately trained and not excessively fatigued, while safety procedures continue to be followed even during boom times. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparative analysis of business rules and business process modeling languages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrius Rima

2013-03-01

Full Text Available During developing an information system is important to create clear models and choose suitable modeling languages. The article analyzes the SRML, SBVR, PRR, SWRL, OCL rules specifying language and UML, DFD, CPN, EPC and IDEF3 BPMN business process modeling language. The article presents business rules and business process modeling languages theoretical comparison. The article according to selected modeling aspects of the comparison between different business process modeling languages ​​and business rules representation languages sets. Also, it is selected the best fit of language set for three layer framework for business rule based software modeling.

Enacting Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michea, Adela

This is an ethnographic study of business model innovation in an established manufacturing company. The motivation of the thesis is to propose a sensemaking (Weick, 1995), with focus on enactment (Weick, 1979), analysis of a business model innovation process, stepping outside the usual perspectives...... employed in analysing such a phenomenon, namely activity system, dynamic capability and transaction costs, discovery driven or cognitive perspective. The research question guiding the thesis is: How do established companies enact new business models? The innovation of business models in established...... companies is an intricate process, and a mountain to climb in the eyes of top management. Often, in the choice between innovation and control the latter wins. Studies have shown that technologies and processes, which have the potential to challenge the exiting model, are being filtered out. In here...

When Arm’s Length is Too Far: Relationship Banking over the Business Cycle

OpenAIRE

Beck, T.H.L.; Degryse, H.A.; de Haas, R.; van Horen, N.

2014-01-01

Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks’ lending techniques affect funding to SMEs over the business cycle. For 21 countries we link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two contrasting points of the business cycle. We show that relationship lending alleviates credit constraints during a cyclical downturn but not during a boom period. The positive impact of relationship lend...

Recent progress in econophysics: Chaos, leverage, and business cycles as revealed by agent-based modeling and human experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, Chen; Huang, Ji-Ping

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling and controlled human experiments serve as two fundamental research methods in the field of econophysics. Agent-based modeling has been in development for over 20 years, but how to design virtual agents with high levels of human-like "intelligence" remains a challenge. On the other hand, experimental econophysics is an emerging field; however, there is a lack of experience and paradigms related to the field. Here, we review some of the most recent research results obtained through the use of these two methods concerning financial problems such as chaos, leverage, and business cycles. We also review the principles behind assessments of agents' intelligence levels, and some relevant designs for human experiments. The main theme of this review is to show that by combining theory, agent-based modeling, and controlled human experiments, one can garner more reliable and credible results on account of a better verification of theory; accordingly, this way, a wider range of economic and financial problems and phenomena can be studied.

Recent progress in econophysics: Chaos, leverage,and business cycles as revealed by agent-based modeling and human experiments

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Chen Xin; Ji-Ping Huang

2017-01-01

Agent-based modeling and controlled human experiments serve as two fundamental research methods in the field of econophysics.Agent-based modeling has been in development for over 20 years,but how to design virtual agents with high levels of human-like "intelligence" remains a challenge.On the other hand,experimental econophysics is an emerging field;however,there is a lack of experience and paradigms related to the field.Here,we review some of the most recent research results obtained through the use of these two methods concerning financial problems such as chaos,leverage,and business cycles.We also review the principles behind assessments of agents' intelligence levels,and some relevant designs for human experiments.The main theme of this review is to show that by combining theory,agent-based modeling,and controlled human experiments,one can garner more reliable and credible results on account of a better verification of theory;accordingly,this way,a wider range of economic and financial problems and phenomena can be studied.

Improving patient handover between teams using a business improvement model: PDSA cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Luther, Vishal; Hammersley, Daniel; Chekairi, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Medical admission units are continuously under pressure to move patients off the unit to outlying medical wards and allow for new admissions. In a typical district general hospital, doctors working in these medical wards reported that, on average, three patients each week arrived from the medical admission unit before any handover was received, and a further two patients arrived without any handover at all. A quality improvement project was therefore conducted using a 'Plan, Do, Study, Act' cycle model for improvement to address this issue. P - Plan: as there was no framework to support doctors with handover, a series of standard handover procedures were designed. D - Do: the procedures were disseminated to all staff, and championed by key stakeholders, including the clinical director and matron of the medical admission unit. S - STUDY: Measurements were repeated 3 months later and showed no change in the primary end points. A - ACT: The post take ward round sheet was redesigned, creating a checkbox for a medical admission unit doctor to document that handover had occurred. Nursing staff were prohibited from moving the patient off the ward until this had been completed. This later evolved into a separate handover sheet. Six months later, a repeat study revealed that only one patient each week was arriving before or without a verbal handover. Using a 'Plan, Do, Study, Act' business improvement tool helped to improve patient care.

Competing through business models

OpenAIRE

Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon; Ricart, Joan E.

2007-01-01

In this article a business model is defined as the firm choices on policies, assets and governance structure of those policies and assets, together with their consequences, be them flexible or rigid. We also provide a way to represent such business models to highlight the dynamic loops and to facilitate understanding interaction with other business models. Furthermore, we develop some tests to evaluate the goodness of a business model both in isolation as well as in interaction with other bus...

BUSINESS MODEL IN ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY USING BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS APPROACH; THE CASE OF PT. XYZ

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achmad Arief Wicaksono

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The magnitude of opportunities and project values of electricity system in Indonesia encourages PT. XYZ to develop its business in electrical sector which requires business development strategies. This study aims to identify company's business model using Business Model Canvas approach, formulate business development strategy alternatives, and determine the prioritized business development strategy which is appropriate to the manufacturing business model for PT. XYZ. This study utilized a descriptive approach and the nine elements of the Business Model Canvas. Alternative formulation and priority determination of the strategies were obtained by using Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT analysis and pairwise comparison. The results of this study are the improvement of Business Model Canvas on the elements of key resources, key activities, key partners and customer segment. In terms of SWOT analysis on the nine elements of the Business Model Canvas for the first business development, the results show an expansion on the power plant construction project as the main contractor, an increase in sales in its core business in supporting equipment industry of oil and gas,  a development in the second business i.e. an investment in the electricity sector as an independent renewable emery-based power producer. On its first business development, PT. XYZ selected three Business Model Canvas elements which become the priorities of the company i.e. key resources weighing 0.252, key activities weighing 0.240, and key partners weighing 0.231. On its second business development, the company selected three elements to become their the priorities i.e. key partners weighing 0.225, customer segments weighing 0.217, and key resources weighing 0.215.Keywords: business model canvas, SWOT, pairwise comparison, business model

A comparison of exchange economies within a monetary business cycle

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

-, E2005/14 (2005), s. 1-26 ISSN 1749-6101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : cash-in-advance * credit production * monetary business cycle Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/2005_14.pdf

What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

James A. Kahn; Mark Bils

2000-01-01

Manufacturers' finished goods inventories move less than shipments over the business cycle. We argue that this requires marginal cost to be more procyclical than is conventionally measured. We construct, for six manufacturing industries, alternative measures of marginal cost that attribute high-frequency productivity shocks to procyclical work effort, and find that they are much more successful in accounting for inventory behavior. The difference is attributable to cyclicality in the shadow p...

SME International Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Child, John; Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said

2017-01-01

This paper addresses two questions through a study of 180 SMEs located in contrasting industry and home country contexts. First, which business models for international markets prevail among SMEs and do they configure into different types? Second, which factors predict the international business...... models that SMEs follow? Three distinct international business models (traditional market-adaptive, technology exploiter, and ambidextrous explorer) are found among the SMEs studied. The likelihood of SMEs adopting one business model rather than another is to a high degree predictable with reference...

Crowdsourcing Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waldner, Florian; Poetz, Marion

Successfully adapting existing business models or developing new ones significantly influences a firm?s ability to generate profits and develop competitive advantages. However, business model innovation is perceived as a complex, risky and uncertain process and its success strongly depends...... on whether or not firms are capable of understanding and addressing their customers? needs. This study explores how crowdsourcing-based search approaches can contribute to the process of business model innovation. Drawing on data from a crowdsourcing initiative designed to develop ideas for new business...... models in the podcast industry, we provide first exploratory insights into the value of crowdsourcing for innovating a firm?s business model, and discuss which characteristics of crowd-contributors increase the quantity and quality of the outcome....

The impact of the business cycle on service providers : Insights from international tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekimpe, Marnik; Peers, Yuri; van Heerde, H.J.

For service providers, it is essential to understand how their business is affected by the macroeconomy. This is especially pressing for the tourism sector, the world’s largest export service, because the number of incoming visitors is likely to be strongly determined by the business cycles in the

Turning points in nonlinear business cycle theories, financial crisis and the 2007-2008 downturn.

Science.gov (United States)

Dore, Mohammed H I; Singh, Ragiv G

2009-10-01

This paper reviews three nonlinear dynamical business cycle theories of which only one (The Goodwin model) reflects the stylized facts of observed business cycles and has a plausible turning point mechanism. The paper then examines the US (and now global) financial crisis of 2008 and the accompanying downturn in the US. The paper argues that a skewed income distribution could not sustain effective demand and that over the 2001-2006 expansion demand was maintained through massive amounts of credit, with more than 50 percent of sales in the US being maintained through credit. A vector autoregression model confirms the crucial role played by credit. However legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector after the crash of 1929 and the consequent structural changes in the financial sector after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. But overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 led to a nonlinear shift due to a new realization of the poor quality of some of this debt, namely mortgage backed securities. Bankruptcies, followed by retrenchment at the banks, then led to the bursting of the credit bubble, with the possibility of a severe recession.

Business cycle research in marketing : A review and research agenda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekimpe, Marnik; Deleersnyder, Barbara

Business cycles (BCs) may affect entire markets, and significantly alter many firms’ marketing activities and performance. Even though managers cannot prevent BCs from occurring, marketing research over the last 15 years has provided growing evidence that their impact on consumers, and hence on firm

Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahrensbach Rasmussen, Klement

The topics of business model innovation (BMI) and organizational design have potentially important links. And yet, there has been little cross-fertilization of ideas between the two fields. The purpose of this thesis is to fill that gap by proposing and developing an organizational view of BMI...... that focuses on the missing links between business model innovation and organizational design theory. Guided by the research question—what is the role of organizational design in the process of business model innovation?—the thesis not only investigates how BMI activity unfolds, but also looks at the different...... roles of the firm’s organizational design and where the activity takes place. Moreover, this research provides ample detail on how organizational complementarities emerge or vanish as a result of the fit or misfit between business model elements and design choices. To drive home these important points...

Business models of micro businesses: Empirical evidence from creative industries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pfeifer Sanja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Business model describes how a business identifies and creates value for customers and how it organizes itself to capture some of this value in a profitable manner. Previous studies of business models in creative industries have only recently identified the unresolved issues in this field of research. The main objective of this article is to analyse the structure and diversity of business models and to deduce how these components interact or change in the context of micro and small businesses in creative services such as advertising, architecture and design. The article uses a qualitative approach. Case studies and semi-structured, in-depth interviews with six owners/managers of micro businesses in Croatia provide rich data. Structural coding in data analysis has been performed manually. The qualitative analysis has indicative relevance for the assessment and comparison of business models, however, it provides insights into which components of business models seem to be consolidated and which seem to contribute to the diversity of business models in creative industries. The article contributes to the advancement of empirical evidence and conceptual constructs that might lead to more advanced methodological approaches and proposition of the core typologies or classifications of business models in creative industries. In addition, a more detailed mapping of different choices available in managing value creation, value capturing or value networking might be a valuable help for owners/managers who want to change or cross-fertilize their business models.

Application of the Experiential Learning Cycle in Learning from a Business Simulation Game

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Jung-Hoon

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of engaging students in Kolb's experiential learning cycle on facilitating students' simulation game performance and knowledge application skills in learning with a business simulation game. A sample was drawn from a population of business-major undergraduate students at the School of…

UML in business process modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartosz Marcinkowski

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Selection and proper application of business process modeling methods and techniques have a significant impact on organizational improvement capabilities as well as proper understanding of functionality of information systems that shall support activity of the organization. A number of business process modeling notations were popularized in practice in recent decades. Most significant of the notations include Business Process Modeling Notation (OMG BPMN and several Unified Modeling Language (OMG UML extensions. In this paper, the assessment whether one of the most flexible and strictly standardized contemporary business process modeling notations, i.e. Rational UML Profile for Business Modeling, enable business analysts to prepare business models that are all-embracing and understandable by all the stakeholders. After the introduction, methodology of research is discussed. Section 2 presents selected case study results. The paper is concluded with a summary.

Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle

OpenAIRE

Jing Yang; Kostas Tsatsaronis

2012-01-01

The returns on bank stocks rise and fall with the business cycle, making bank equity financing cheaper in the boom and dearer during a recession. This provides support for prudential tools that give incentives for banks to build capital buffers at times when the cost of equity is lower. In addition, banks with higher leverage face a higher cost of equity, which suggests that higher capital ratios are associated with lower funding costs.

Tourist Demand Reactions: Symmetric or Asymmetric across the Business Cycle?

Science.gov (United States)

Bronner, Fred; de Hoog, Robert

2017-09-01

Economizing and spending priorities on different types of vacations are investigated during two periods: an economic downturn and returning prosperity. Two nation-wide samples of vacationers are used: one during a downturn, the other one at the start of the recovery period. Through comparing the results, conclusions can be drawn about symmetric or asymmetric tourist demand across the business cycle. The main summer holiday has an asymmetric profile: being fairly crisis-resistant during a recession and showing considerable growth during an expansion. This does not apply to short vacations and day trips, each having a symmetric profile: during a recession they experience substantial reductions and during expansion comparable growth. So when talking about tourist demand in general , one cannot say that it is symmetric or asymmetric across the business cycle: it depends on the type of vacation. Differences in tourist demand are best explained by the role of Quality-of-Life for vacationers.

Business model innovation paths

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chesbrough, H.; Di Minin, Alberto; Piccaluga, A.

2013-01-01

This chapter explains the business model concept and explores the reasons why “innovation” and “innovation in services” are no longer exclusively a technological issue. Rather, we highlight that business models are critical components at the centre of business innovation processes. We also attempt

Business model dynamics and innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

2011-01-01

the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... and specifies four different types of business model change: business model creation, extension, revision, and termination. Each type of business model change is associated with specific challenges. Practical implications – The proposed typology can serve as a basis for developing a management tool to evaluate......Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...

Metamodeling for Business Model Design : Facilitating development and communication of Business Model Canvas (BMC) models with an OMG standards-based metamodel.

OpenAIRE

Hauksson, Hilmar

2013-01-01

Interest for business models and business modeling has increased rapidly since the mid-1990‘s and there are numerous approaches used to create business models. The business model concept has many definitions which can lead to confusion and slower progress in the research and development of business models. A business model ontology (BMO) was created in 2004 where the business model concept was conceptualized based on an analysis of existing literature. A few years later the Business Model Can...

Business model transformation process in the context of business ecosystem

OpenAIRE

Heikkinen, A.-M. (Anne-Mari)

2014-01-01

Abstract It is current phenomena that business environment has changed and has set new requirements for companies. Companies must adapt to the changes comes from outside its normal business environment and take into consideration wider business environment where it operates. These changes also have set new demands for company business model. Companies Business models need to be changed to match state of art business environ...

A business model design framework for viability : a business ecosystem approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D'Souza, Austin; Velthuijsen, Hugo; Wortmann, J.C.; Huitema, George

2015-01-01

Purpose: To facilitate the design of viable business models by proposing a novel business model design framework for viability. Design: A design science research method is adopted to develop a business model design framework for viability. The business model design framework for viability is

Lexicography: What is the Business Model?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Køhler Simonsen, Henrik

2017-01-01

lenses: strategy, core competencies, innovation, business understanding and organizational inertia. By means of these lenses, the paper explores the business model of lexicography in Denmark, and it analyzes and discusses whether the Danish lexicographic industry understands the concept business model...... at all, and if so, to what extent it applies business model thinking. Furthermore, this paper discusses different categories of lexicographic business models, potential elements of a new lexicographic business model and finally it formulates six theses on a new, more viable lexicographic business model....

Business and technology integrated model

OpenAIRE

Noce, Irapuan; Carvalho, João Álvaro

2011-01-01

There is a growing interest in business modeling and architecture in the areas of management and information systems. One of the issues in the area is the lack of integration between the modeling techniques that are employed to support business development and those used for technology modeling. This paper proposes a modeling approach that is capable of integrating the modeling of the business and of the technology. By depicting the business model, the organization structure and the technolog...

Business model metrics : An open repository

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heikkila, M.; Bouwman, W.A.G.A.; Heikkila, J.; Solaimani, S.; Janssen, W.

2015-01-01

Development of successful business models has become a necessity in turbulent business environments, but compared to research on business modeling tools, attention to the role of metrics in designing business models in literature is limited. Building on existing approaches to business models and

The South African business cycle: What has changed?

OpenAIRE

Burger, Philippe

2010-01-01

This paper identifies the basic empirical characteristics and changes of the South African business cycle since 1960. As such, the paper examines changes in volatility as well as the co-movement between several national account variables and real GDP. To examine the co-movements the paper follows Kydland and Prescott, Gavin and Kydland as well as Bergman, Bordo and Jonung and uses correlation coefficients and Granger causality tests. Following Ramos, the paper extends the results of the Grang...

Business Models and Technological Innovation

OpenAIRE

Baden-Fuller, Charles; Haefliger, Stefan

2013-01-01

Business models are fundamentally linked with technological innovation, yet the business model construct is essentially separable from technology. We define the business model as a system that solves the problem of identifying who is (or are) the customer(s), engaging with their needs, delivering satisfaction, and monetizing the value. The framework depicts the business model system as a model containing cause and effect relationships, and it provides a basis for classification. We formulate ...

Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

-, CDMC06/04 (2006), s. 1-39 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * endogenous growth Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.st- and rews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0604.pdf

Constructing a Business Model Taxonomy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Pernille; Nielsen, Christian

2015-01-01

the quality of business model taxonomy studies in the future are identified. Originality/Value: The paper highlights the benefits and potential implications of designing business model taxonomy studies and makes the case for ensuring the quality of future studies relating to e.g. performance. Reviewing......Abstract Purpose: The paper proposes a research design recipe capable of leading to future business model taxonomies and discusses the potential benefits and implications of achieving this goal. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper provides a review of relevant scholarly literature about business...... models to clarify the subject as well as highlighting the importance of past studies of business model classifications. In addition it reviews the scholarly literature on relevant methodological approaches, such as cluster analysis and latent class analysis, for constructing a business model taxonomy...

Business Models for Open Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saebi, Tina; Foss, Nicolai Juul

Research on open innovation suggests that companies benefit differentially from adopting open innovation strategies; however, it is unclear why this is so. One possible explanation is that companies’ business models are not attuned to open strategies. Accordingly, we propose a contingency model o...... to the open innovation literature by specifying the conditions under which business models are conducive to the success of open innovation strategies.......Research on open innovation suggests that companies benefit differentially from adopting open innovation strategies; however, it is unclear why this is so. One possible explanation is that companies’ business models are not attuned to open strategies. Accordingly, we propose a contingency model...... of open business models by systematically linking open innovation strategies to core business model dimensions, notably the content, structure, governance of transactions. We further illustrate a continuum of open innovativeness, differentiating between four types of open business models. We contribute...

Business Models for Open Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saebi, Tina; Foss, Nicolai J.

2015-01-01

Research on open innovation suggests that companies benefit differentially from adopting open innovation strategies; however, it is unclear why this is so. One possible explanation is that companies' business models are not attuned to open strategies. Accordingly, we propose a contingency model o...... to the open innovation literature by specifying the conditions under which business models are conducive to the success of open innovation strategies.......Research on open innovation suggests that companies benefit differentially from adopting open innovation strategies; however, it is unclear why this is so. One possible explanation is that companies' business models are not attuned to open strategies. Accordingly, we propose a contingency model...... of open business models by systematically linking open innovation strategies to core business model dimensions, notably the content, structure, governance of transactions. We further illustrate a continuum of open innovativeness, differentiating between four types of open business models. We contribute...

Business cycle synchronization among member countries of Eurozone during the process of European integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svatopluk Kapounek

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the correlation of the business cycles between the Eurozone member states in the period 1957–2003. The analysed period is divided into the four parts (1959–1972, 1973–1985, 1986–1994, 1995–2003, which correspond to integration waves and relate approximately to the European integration process. The empirical analysis is based on the time series correlation. The authors discuss the impact of the EC enlargements on the business cycles correlation as well as on qualitative changes in the interaction between the states.

Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

-, E2007/14 (2007), s. 1-16 ISSN 1749-6101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cf.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/E2007_14.pdf

What Drives Business Model Adaptation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saebi, Tina; Lien, Lasse B.; Foss, Nicolai Juul

2017-01-01

Business models change as managers not only innovate business models, but also engage in more mundane adaptation in response to external changes, such as changes in the level or composition of demand. However, little is known about what causes such business model adaptation. We employ threat......-rigidity as well as prospect theory to examine business model adaptation in response to external threats and opportunities. Additionally, drawing on the behavioural theory of the firm, we argue that the past strategic orientation of a firm creates path dependencies that influence the propensity of the firm...... to adapt its business model. We test our hypotheses on a sample of 1196 Norwegian companies, and find that firms are more likely to adapt their business model under conditions of perceived threats than opportunities, and that strategic orientation geared towards market development is more conducive...

The US Business Cycle, 1867-2006 : A Dynamic Factor Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin

We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant

Directed Innovation of Business Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian Brad

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Business model innovation is an important issue to keep business competitive and increase company’s profits. Due to many market attractors, identification of appropriate paths of business model evolution is a painful and risky process. To improve decision’s effectiveness in this process, an architectural construct of analysis and conceptualization for business model innovation that combines directed evolution and blue ocean concepts is proposed in this paper under the name of directed innovation. It displays the key points where innovations would happen to direct adaptation of the business model towards sustainable competitiveness. Formulation of mature solutions is supported by inventive problem solving tools. The significance of the directed innovation approach is demonstrated in a case study dealing with business model innovation of a software company.

Openness during business model innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anna B.; Günzel, Franziska; Ulhøi, John Parm

the recent developments in the Danish newspaper industry, especially how the Internet and related technology developments have disrupted the long-standing successful business model of the industry. Our findings suggest that a more nuanced understanding of the term ‘openness’ is needed since the opening......Literature on business model innovation portraits an open business model as a modern and lucrative approach to conducting business, and even as a way to engage in open innovation activities. Using archival data and interviews with key employees of the two largest media groups from Denmark, we show...... of business models during technological dynamics may have far more diverse consequences than it has been reported in the literature so far and can even become a major threat to business viability....

Model business letters, emails and other business documents

CERN Document Server

Taylor, Shirley

2012-01-01

For anyone who wants to communicate effectively in business, this is your complete reference guide for any form of written communication. Packed with over 500 sample documents, over 100 tips for better business writing and useful templates you can apply to your writing immediately, Model Business Letters will help you put the key rules of good business writing into action.

Conceptualizing strategic business model innovation leadership for business survival and business model innovation excellence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindgren, Peter; Abdullah, Maizura Ailin

2013-01-01

Too many businesses are being marginalized by blind "business model innovations (BMIs)" and simple "BMIs". As documented in previous research (Markides 2008, Lindgren 2012), most businesses perform BMIs at a reactive level i.e. perceiving what the market, customers and network partners might want...... rather than what they actually demand. Few businesses have the ability to proactively lead BMIs and on a strategic level lead BMIs to something that fits the business’s long term perspective (Hamel 2011). Apple, Ryanair, Facebook, Zappo are some businesses that have shown BMI Leadership (BMIL......) in a proactive way - and more importantly, as some examples of first level BMIL. The overall aim of the BMIL is to prevent businesses from being marginalized by the BMI and thereby to optimize the business’s total BMI investment. The literature research and case research we studied gave us some important...

Analysis of an innovative business model

OpenAIRE

Picquendaele, Laetitia

2016-01-01

This master thesis will investigate the freemium business model, raising on the questions: “Why is the freemium business model innovative and what are its success factors?” The aim is to analyse this business model by confronting theory and practice. Therefore, the document begins with a description discussion of the freemium business model. The literature review concludes by determining the success factors of the business model innovation and of the freemium model. The theory in this first p...

The Convergence of European Business Cycles 1980--2004

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, P.

2005-09-01

The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary policy which is appropriate to the stage of the cycle of the Euro zone economies. I consider the annual rates of real GDP growth on a quarterly basis in the main economies of the EU (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands) over the period 1980Q1--2004Q4. An important empirical question is the degree to which the correlations between these growth rates contain true information rather than noise. The technique of random matrix theory is able to answer this question, and has been applied successfully in the physics journals to financial markets data. I find that the correlations between the growth rates of most of the core EU economies contain substantial amounts of true information, and exhibit considerable stability over time. Even in the late 1970s and early 1980s, these economies moved together closely over the course of the business cycle. There was a slight loosening at the time of German re-unification, but the economies have moved back into close synchronisation. The same result holds when Spain is added to the group of core EU countries. However, the problems of the German economy which arose from the early 1990s onwards has led to Germany becoming increasingly less synchronised with the rest of the core EU. Further, the results obtained with a data set of the converged EU core plus the UK show no real convergence between the UK and this group of economies.

Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

2008-01-01

Roč. 40, č. 6 (2008), s. 1281-1293 ISSN 0022-2879 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.422, year: 2008

The role of mortgages and consumer credit in the business cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sterk, V.

2011-01-01

Many households rely on mortgages and consumer credit to finance their expenditures. Lenders usually impose certain conditions on loans, such as limits on the amounts that can be borrowed. Conventional intuition suggests that such conditions are important for our understanding of the business cycle,

Directed Innovation of Business Models

OpenAIRE

Stelian Brad; Emilia Brad

2016-01-01

Business model innovation is an important issue to keep business competitive and increase company’s profits. Due to many market attractors, identification of appropriate paths of business model evolution is a painful and risky process. To improve decision’s effectiveness in this process, an architectural construct of analysis and conceptualization for business model innovation that combines directed evolution and blue ocean concepts is proposed in this paper under the name o...

Business models and business model innovation in a “Secure and Distributed Cloud Clustering (DISC) Society”

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindgren, Peter; Taran, Yariv

2011-01-01

of secure business models and how business models can be operated and innovated in a secure context have intensified tremendously. The development of new mobile and wireless security technologies gives hopes to really realize a secure cloud clustering society where business models can act and be innovated......The development and innovation of business models to a secure distributed cloud clustering society (DISC)—is indeed still a complex venture and has not been widely researched yet. Numerous types of security technologies are in these years proposed and in the “slip stream” of these the study...... secure—but we still have some steps to go before we reach the final destination. The paper gives a conceptual futuristic outlook on behalf of the input from SW2010 and state of the art business model research to what we can expect of business Model and business model innovation in a future secure cloud...

Business model stress testing : A practical approach to test the robustness of a business model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haaker, T.I.; Bouwman, W.A.G.A.; Janssen, W; de Reuver, G.A.

Business models and business model innovation are increasingly gaining attention in practice as well as in academic literature. However, the robustness of business models (BM) is seldom tested vis-à-vis the fast and unpredictable changes in digital technologies, regulation and markets. The

Innovating through collaborative business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjerding, Allan Næs; Kringelum, Louise Tina Brøns

The present paper presents a novel generalization of business model innovation as an activity taking place across a development and an extension zone, where business model innovation occurs as minor, medium and major changes within both zones. The model explains the process of creating new activi......, and that there exists a dialec-tical relationship between sources of selection and sources of survival, which tend to re-inforce one another. This constitutes a new aspect of business model innovation.......The present paper presents a novel generalization of business model innovation as an activity taking place across a development and an extension zone, where business model innovation occurs as minor, medium and major changes within both zones. The model explains the process of creating new activity......-ered as a coherent system. The generalization is explicated in terms of different domi-nant market logics in which collaborative efforts can be positioned. Underlying this presentation, the paper argues that business model innovation involves uncertainty to the degree that innovation is based on cooperative efforts...

Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandar Vasilev

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on explaining the economic fluctuations in Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement in 1997, the period of macroeconomic stability that ensued, the EU accession, and the episode of the recent global financial crisis. This paper follows Chari et al. (2002, 2007 and performs business cycle accounting (BCA for Bulgaria during the period 1999-2014. As in Cavalcanti (2007, who studies the Portuguese business cycles, most of the volatility in output per capita in Bulgaria over the period is due to variations in the efficiency and labor wedges.

Extracting business vocabularies from business process models: SBVR and BPMN standards-based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Skersys, Tomas; Butleris, Rimantas; Kapocius, Kestutis

2013-10-01

Approaches for the analysis and specification of business vocabularies and rules are very relevant topics in both Business Process Management and Information Systems Development disciplines. However, in common practice of Information Systems Development, the Business modeling activities still are of mostly empiric nature. In this paper, basic aspects of the approach for business vocabularies' semi-automated extraction from business process models are presented. The approach is based on novel business modeling-level OMG standards "Business Process Model and Notation" (BPMN) and "Semantics for Business Vocabularies and Business Rules" (SBVR), thus contributing to OMG's vision about Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) and to model-driven development in general.

Co-designing business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gudiksen, Sune Klok

2015-01-01

in a system, product or service for a particular end-user. In this dissertation, co-design and design games enter a new frontier - business models - and move towards being a part of a broader innovation agenda. The research deals with a double concern: First, the transfer of co-design and the subfield design...... games into business model experimentation to investigate how this might be useful in this new application domain. Second, investigate what can be added to the transferring field co-design, hereunder especially design games. The research into this double concern is conducted through an approach assembled...... of business cases and games are investigated through video interaction analysis, observations during the activities, and evaluation rounds. Central to the first concern in this research is that in innovation studies and in business practises the notion of business model experimentation is becoming...

Life, death and rebirth of the B2B business model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollensen, Svend; Bogers, Marcel; Boyd, Britta

through cycles of expansion and decline is the Danish family-owned Cimber airline. In this paper, we aim to understand how and why Cimber’s business model changed over time. Since its original establishment in 1950 the family-owned airline Cimber experienced many changes. To study the development......Many airline companies are struggling to survive after the industry has been hit hard by several crises. The reaction of companies is however heterogeneous, with family businesses reacting in a particular way given their inherent characteristics and particular risks. One airline that has went...... of their business model, we adopt a qualitative case study approach. The empirical base of the case study is formed by a set of interviews, with previous and current managers and employees, including both family and non-family, conducted in the period 2011-2014, complemented with secondary data, such as annual...

Crowdsourcing business model innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waldner, Florian; Poetz, Marion Kristin; Bogers, Marcel

2016-01-01

Successfully adapting existing business models or developing new ones significantly influences a firm’s ability to generate profits and develop competitive advantages. However, business model innovation is perceived as a complex, risky and uncertain process and its success strongly depends...... on whether or not the firm is capable of understanding and addressing their customers’ needs. We conduct a quantitative exploratory case study to investigate how crowdsourcing-based search approaches among user communities can contribute to developing business model innovation. Drawing on data from...... a crowdsourcing initiative designed to develop ideas for new business models in the podcast industry, we provide first exploratory insights into the value of crowdsourcing for innovating a firm’s way of creating, delivering and capturing value, and discuss characteristics of crowd-contributors that influence...

The Rate of Return to Schooling and the Business Cycle: Additional Estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Kniesner, Thomas J.; And Others

1980-01-01

Illustrates that the business cycle does indeed disturb relative Black/White rates of return to schooling. Blacks fare relatively poorly in times of high unemployment. Data tables and formulas are presented to support the argument. (CT)

Relative cost of capital for marginal firms over the business cycle

OpenAIRE

Gikas A. Hardouvelis; Thierry A. Wizman

1992-01-01

The authors compare the effects of the business cycle on the cost of capital faced by small, distressed firms and their larger, more financially secure counterparts. The analysis draws on stock market returns data for a broad range of traded companies during the 1963-91 period.

Conceptualising Business Models: Definitions, Frameworks and Classifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erwin Fielt

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The business model concept is gaining traction in different disciplines but is still criticized for being fuzzy and vague and lacking consensus on its definition and compositional elements. In this paper we set out to advance our understanding of the business model concept by addressing three areas of foundational research: business model definitions, business model elements, and business model archetypes. We define a business model as a representation of the value logic of an organization in terms of how it creates and captures customer value. This abstract and generic definition is made more specific and operational by the compositional elements that need to address the customer, value proposition, organizational architecture (firm and network level and economics dimensions. Business model archetypes complement the definition and elements by providing a more concrete and empirical understanding of the business model concept. The main contributions of this paper are (1 explicitly including the customer value concept in the business model definition and focussing on value creation, (2 presenting four core dimensions that business model elements need to cover, (3 arguing for flexibility by adapting and extending business model elements to cater for different purposes and contexts (e.g. technology, innovation, strategy (4 stressing a more systematic approach to business model archetypes by using business model elements for their description, and (5 suggesting to use business model archetype research for the empirical exploration and testing of business model elements and their relationships.

MODEL OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETS

OpenAIRE

Jerman, Damjana; Završnik, Bruno

2012-01-01

Much of the research into marketing communications has focused on the consumer market with little regard to date for the business-to-business market. This paper focuses on a development and testing of a model of marketing communication effectiveness in the business-to-business market. Building on past research from the marketing communications and business-to-business marketing literature, the model (which incorporates facets of the marketing communication objectives, bidirectional communicat...

Business Model Discovery by Technology Entrepreneurs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Muegge

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Value creation and value capture are central to technology entrepreneurship. The ways in which a particular firm creates and captures value are the foundation of that firm's business model, which is an explanation of how the business delivers value to a set of customers at attractive profits. Despite the deep conceptual link between business models and technology entrepreneurship, little is known about the processes by which technology entrepreneurs produce successful business models. This article makes three contributions to partially address this knowledge gap. First, it argues that business model discovery by technology entrepreneurs can be, and often should be, disciplined by both intention and structure. Second, it provides a tool for disciplined business model discovery that includes an actionable process and a worksheet for describing a business model in a form that is both concise and explicit. Third, it shares preliminary results and lessons learned from six technology entrepreneurs applying a disciplined process to strengthen or reinvent the business models of their own nascent technology businesses.

Magnitude X on the Richter Scale: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries

OpenAIRE

Stephane Pallage; Michel Robe

2000-01-01

Economic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates what constitutes a reasonable estimate of the welfare cost of business cycles in the US, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several model economies, we provide such a measure for a large number of low--income countries. Our first main result is that the welfare cost of output fluctuations per se is far from trivial in t...

Business Model Innovation Leadership

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindgren, Peter; Rasmussen, Ole Horn

2012-01-01

Leading business model (BM) strategizing through “the field of innovation” has not yet been covered in business model and innovation leadership literature. This is a bit peculiar considering that there has been an increased focus on BM innovation (BMI) by academics and industry since 2011......”. This emphasizes the importance of questioning. How is BM innovation leadership (BMIL) carried out in companies related to various BM(s) and BMI tasks and throughout their business model innovation process? And, how can innovation leadership be related to BMI? A framework model for BMIL based on case research...

Franchise Business Model: Theoretical Insights

OpenAIRE

Levickaitė, Rasa; Reimeris, Ramojus

2010-01-01

The article is based on literature review, theoretical insights, and deals with the topic of franchise business model. The objective of the paper is to analyse peculiarities of franchise business model and its developing conditions in Lithuania. The aim of the paper is to make an overview on franchise business model and its environment in Lithuanian business context. The overview is based on international and local theoretical insights. In terms of practical meaning, this article should be re...

Biopharma business models in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

March-Chordà, I; Yagüe-Perales, R M

2011-08-01

This article provides new insights into the different strategy paths or business models currently being implemented by Canadian biopharma companies. Through a case-study methodology, seven biopharma companies pertaining to three business models were analyzed, leading to a broad set of results emerging from the following areas: activity, business model and strategy; management and human resources; and R&D, technology and innovation strategy. The three business models represented were: model 1 (conventional biotech oriented to new drug development, radical innovation and search for discoveries); model 2 (development of a technology platform, usually in proteomics and bioinformatics); and model 3 (incremental innovation, with shorter and less risky development timelines). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intersections between strategy and business models

OpenAIRE

磯村 和人

2015-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between strategy and business models. I review major researches on strategy and business models to provide a viewpoint to consider the intersections between them. The theory of strategy shifts the focus from visible competitive advantage to its internal managerial resources. The concept of business models has been discussed because a business model is considered to be a combination of internal and external business processes; it clarifies how to effectivel...

Business Model Disclosures in Corporate Reports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Michalak

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: In this paper, we investigate the development, the current state, and the potential of business model disclosures to illustrate where, why and how organizations might want to disclose their business models to their stakeholders. The description of the business model may be relevant to stakeholders if it helps them to comprehend the company ‘story’ and increase understanding of other provided data (i.e. financial statements, risk exposure, sustainability of operations. It can also aid stakeholders in the assessment of sustainability of business models and the whole company. To realize these goals, business model descriptions should fulfil requirements of users suggested by various guidelines. Design/Methodology/Approach: First, we review and analyse literature on business model disclosure and some of its antecedents, including voluntary disclosure of intellectual capital. We also discuss business model reporting incentives from the viewpoint of shareholders, stakeholders and legitimacy theory. Second, we compare and discuss reporting guidelines on strategic reports, intellectual capital reports, and integrated reports through the lens of their requirements for business model disclosure and the consequences of their use for corporate report users. Third, we present, analyse and compare examples of good corporate practices in business model reporting. Findings: In the examined reporting guidelines, we find similarities, e.g. mostly structural but also qualitative attributes, in their presented information: materiality, completeness, connectivity, future orientation and conciseness. We also identify important differences between their frameworks concerning the target audience of the reports, business model definitions and business model disclosure requirements. Discontinuation of intellectual capital reporting conforming to DATI guidelines provides important warnings for the proponents of voluntary disclosure – especially for

Money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal

-, 2007/5 (2007), s. 1-17 ISSN 1585-5600 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : money velocity * business cycle * credit shocks Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/MNB/Kiadvanyok/mnbhu_mnbfuzetek/WP_2007_5.pdf

Development on nuclear fuel cycle business in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usami, Kogo

2002-01-01

The Japan Nuclear Fuel Co., Ltd. (JNF) develops five businesses on nuclear fuel cycle such as uranium concentration, storage and administration of high level radioactive wastes, disposition of low level radioactive wastes, used fuel reprocessing, MOX fuel, at Rokkasho-mura in Aomori prefecture. Here were introduced on outline, construction and operation in reprocessing and MOX fuel works, outline, present state and future subjects on technical development of uranium concentration, outline and safety of disposition center on low level radioactive wastes, and storage and administration of high level radioactive wastes. (G.K.)

Opening Up the Business Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smith, Pernille; Cavalcante, Sérgio André; Kesting, Peter

This paper investigates the process whereby firms move from a closed to an open business model, and, in so doing it points to the relationship between a firm's innovation approach and its business model(s). The empirical setting of this qualitative investigation is a consortium of Danish....... A significant contribution of this paper is to show that adopting an open innovation model is unlikely to succeed without changing the underlying business model.  ...

Business Model Innovation in Airlines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno Alencar Pereira

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The business models innovation in airlines can contribute to the creation of value, competitive advantage and profitability with new possibilities of action. The proposed paper aimed to identify the business models adopted by airlines and identify how the innovation occurs at these organizations. The methodology adopted is characterized as empirical, exploratory and descriptive research by multiple case study with three major Brazilian airlines. The results demonstrate that the search for paradigm breaks, related to the dichotomic traditional models of low-cost and full-service, toward hybrid business models occur linearly, as examples highlighted by companies, in which internal changes in business models are considered major organizational innovations.

Care coordination in a business-to-business and a business-to-consumer model for telemonitoring patients with chronic diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Grustam, Andrija S; Vrijhoef, Hubertus; Cordella, Antonio; Koymans, Ron; Severens, Johan L

2017-12-01

For telemonitoring to support care coordination, a sound business model is conditional. The aim of this study is to explore the systemic and economic differences in care coordination via business-to-business and business-to-consumer models for telemonitoring patients with chronic diseases. We performed a literature search in order to design the business-to-business and business-to-consumer telemonitoring models, and to assess the design elements and themes by applying the activity system theory, and describe the transaction costs in each model. The design elements are content, structure, and governance, while the design themes are novelty, lock-in, complementarities, and efficiency. In the transaction cost analysis, we looked into all the elements of a transaction in both models. Care coordination in the business-to-business model is designed to be organized between the places of activity, rather than the participants in the activity. The design of the business-to-business model creates a firm lock-in but for a limited time. In the business-to-consumer model, the interdependencies are to be found between the persons in the care process and not between the places of care. The differences between the models were found in both the design elements and the design themes. Care coordination in the business-to-business and business-to-consumer models for telemonitoring chronic diseases differs in principle in terms of design elements and design themes. Based on the theoretical models, the transaction costs could potentially be lower in the business-to-consumer model than in the business-to-business, which could be a promoting economic principle for the implementation of telemonitoring.

Business Model Prototyping – Using the Morphological Analysis to Develop New Business Models

OpenAIRE

Seidenstricker, Sven; Scheuerle, Stefan; Linder, Christian

2014-01-01

Practice has shown that new businesses have managed to change the structure of market sectors and to open positions of power by business model innovation. Often, the origin was new technological possibilities, innovative products, changes in the supply chain management, optimized cost structures or unique resources. Regarding strategic marketing and innovation management, it now is interesting how such potentials can be unlocked and implemented in business model innovations. Here, development...

Preparing for business model change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate managers’ initiatives in the context of an emergent technology and their effect on the business models of firms. Building on four case studies of organizations interested in using an emergent technology for commercial purposes, this study applies...... a process-based framework of business model change. The main finding is that managers’ initiatives occur in the context of a “pre-stage” of potential business model change, which includes processes of experimenting and learning. The pre-stage finding gives a better understanding of when change initiatives...... affect a business model and when they do not, allowing managers to adopt a more proactive behaviour and guide their organizations towards effective business model change. The main contribution of this paper is to suggest the inclusion of the pre-stage idea in research and practice, since...

Controlling Business Object States in Business Process Models to Support Compliance

OpenAIRE

Peņicina, L

2016-01-01

The doctoral thesis addresses the existing gap between business process models and states of business objects. Existing modelling methods such as BPMN and ArchiMate lack an explicitly declarative approach for capturing states of business objects and laws of state transitions. This gap hinders the compliance of business process models with regulations imposed internally or externally, and can result in potential legal problems for organizations. Also this g...

Marketing budget allocation across countries : The role of the international business cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peers, Y.; van Heerde, H.J.; Dekimpe, Marnik

2017-01-01

A key conundrum facing organizations is how to adjust marketing budgets in response to the business cycle. While most firms use procyclical spending (spending less during economic contractions), academic studies often recommend countercyclical spending (spending more during contractions), which begs

Proposal for a Method for Business Model Performance Assessment: Toward an Experimentation Tool for Business Model Innovation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Batocchio

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The representation of business models has been recently widespread, especially in the pursuit of innovation. However, defining a company’s business model is sometimes limited to discussion and debates. This study observes the need for performance measurement so that business models can be data-driven. To meet this goal, the work proposed as a hypothesis the creation of a method that combines the practices of the Balanced Scorecard with a method of business models representation – the Business Model Canvas. Such a combination was based on study of conceptual adaptation, resulting in an application roadmap. A case study application was performed to check the functionality of the proposition, focusing on startup organizations. It was concluded that based on the performance assessment of the business model it is possible to propose the search for change through experimentation, a path that can lead to business model innovation.

Business models for open innovation: Matching heterogeneous open innovation strategies with business model dimensions

OpenAIRE

Saebi, Tina; Foss, Nicolai Juul

2015-01-01

-This is the author's version of the article:"Business models for open innovation: Matching heterogeneous open innovation strategies with business model dimensions", European Management Journal, Volume 33, Issue 3, June 2015, Pages 201–213 Research on open innovation suggests that companies benefit differentially from adopting open innovation strategies; however, it is unclear why this is so. One possible explanation is that companies' business models are not attuned to open strategies. Ac...

Conceptualising Business Models: Definitions, Frameworks and Classifications

OpenAIRE

Erwin Fielt

2013-01-01

The business model concept is gaining traction in different disciplines but is still criticized for being fuzzy and vague and lacking consensus on its definition and compositional elements. In this paper we set out to advance our understanding of the business model concept by addressing three areas of foundational research: business model definitions, business model elements, and business model archetypes. We define a business model as a representation of the value logic of an organization in...

Additional slack in the economy: the poor recovery in labor force participation during this business cycle

OpenAIRE

Katharine L. Bradbury

2005-01-01

This public policy brief examines labor force participation rates in this recession and recovery and compares them with the cyclical patterns in earlier business cycles. Measured relative to the business cycle peak in March 2001, labor force participation rates almost four years later have not recovered as much as usual, and the discrepancies are large. ; Among age-by-sex groups, the participation shortfall is especially pronounced at young and prime ages: Only for men and women age 55 and ol...

Business Cycle and Risk Premium in the Colombian Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Through the Hodrick-Prescott methodology this paper presents a review about the relationship between the ex post risk premium of the stock market and business cycles observed in Colombia. Through quarterly information from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2012, statistical evidence shows that the increase and decrease of ex post risk premium follow a countercyclical behavior in tune with existing research conducted about the United States and emerging economies, although with non-contemporary relationships with private consumption. In addition, it is found that in the last decade the Colombian risk premium follows a process of Auto Regressive Moving Average Models (ARMA, showing that there is no variation in at least two consecutive quarters and whose behavior is generated in part by external events at the domestic economic activity level experienced in near past periods.

Business Model Innovation Leadership

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindgren, Peter

2012-01-01

When SME´s practice business model (BM) innovation (BMI), leading strategically BMs through the innovation process can be the difference between success and failure to a BM. Business Model Innovation Leadership (BMIL) is however extremely complex to carry out especially to small and medium size...

Organizational Aspects of Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sund, Kristian J.; Villarroel, Juan Andrei; Bogers, Marcel

2014-01-01

in their environment. Our empirical setting focuses on national postal operators in the European postal industry. Using an inductive case study we distinguish between two stages within business model innovation: namely, business model exploration and business model exploitation. Focusing on the former, our findings......Organizations are often challenged to find new ways of creating and capturing value to compete with new entrants and disruptive technologies. Several studies have addressed some of the organizational barriers that incumbents face when developing new business models, but our understanding...... of the organizational (re)design aspects inherent to business model innovation is still very incomplete. In this study, we investigate the organizational (re)design challenges for incumbent organizations in mature industries when they need to reinvent their business model in reaction to disruptive changes...

Organizational Aspects of Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sund, Kristian; Bogers, Marcel; Villarroel, Juan Andrei

2014-01-01

Organizations are often challenged to find new ways of creating and capturing value to compete with new entrants and disruptive technologies. Several studies have addressed some of the organizational barriers that incumbents face when developing new business models, but our understanding...... of the organizational (re)design aspects inherent to business model innovation is still very incomplete. In this study, we investigate the organizational (re)design challenges for incumbent organizations in mature industries when they need to reinvent their business model in reaction to disruptive changes...... in their environment. Our empirical setting focuses on national postal operators in the European postal industry. Using an inductive case study we distinguish between two stages within business model innovation: namely, business model exploration and business model exploitation. Focusing on the former, our findings...

Towards operationalization of business models : Designing service compositions for service-dominant business models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Suratno, B.; Grefen, P.; Turetken, O.

2017-01-01

The new trend of service-dominant business which produces so-called value-in-use as a competitive advantage demands rapidly changing business models and collaboration of organizations in a cross-organizational business network. As information technology nowadays largely contributes to the way of

The Wider Implications of Business-model Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ritter, Thomas; Lettl, Christopher

2018-01-01

Business-model research has struggled to develop a clear footprint in the strategic management field. This introduction to the special issue on the wider implications of business-model research argues that part of this struggle relates to the application of five different perspectives on the term...... “business model,” which creates ambiguity about the conceptual boundaries of business models, the applied terminology, and the potential contributions of business-model research to strategic management literature. By explicitly distinguishing among these five perspectives and by aligning them into one...... overarching, comprehensive framework, this paper offers a foundation for consolidating business-model research. Furthermore, we explore the connections between business-model research and prominent theories in strategic management. We conclude that business-model research is not necessarily a “theory on its...

There Is No Business Model for Open Educational Resources: A Business Model Approach

Science.gov (United States)

de Langen, Frank

2011-01-01

The economic proverb "There is no such thing such as a free lunch" applies also to open educational resources (OER). In recent years, several authors have used revenue models and business models to analyse the different sources of possible funding for OER. In this article the business models of Osterwalder and Chesbrough are combined…

E-Commerce Business Modeling.

OpenAIRE

Bonev, Pavlin

2013-01-01

This paper aims at presenting an in-depth review of the new economic relationships associated with the advent of e-commerce in the daily lives of consumers in Bulgaria, which greatly contributes to change and adapt to the modern business environment as well as to the new processes. In the paper are considered both - advantages and disadvantages of the current business models. I have tried to outline with short subsections each business model which is deployed in the market. There are some of ...

Frugal Innovation and Green Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Maj Munch

2015-01-01

The literature on ‘green business models’ is rapidly developing these years. This paper suggests that much existing work on green business models lacks a deeper theoretical understanding of eco-innovation and the green economy. The paper forwards an evolutionary economic perspective on green...... business models. This perspective departs in important ways from other approaches to green business models the implications of which are sought clarified and discussed in the paper. The paper argues for the need to link up green business model innovation to aggregate green economic change. The paper posits...... that the greening of the economy has reached such a stage of maturity where a generic ‘green business model’ is apparent. The paper points to eight characteristics of eco-innovation on the basis of which key changes to the business model are identified and schematised for the different stages of the green economic...

A review of telemedicine business models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shengnan; Cheng, Alice; Mehta, Khanjan

2013-04-01

Telemedicine has become an increasingly popular option for long-distance/virtual medical care and education, but many telemedicine ventures fail to grow beyond the initial pilot stage. Studying the business models of successful telemedicine ventures can help develop business strategies for upcoming ventures. This article describes business models of eight telemedicine ventures from different regions of the world using Osterwalder's "Business Model Canvas." The ventures are chosen on the basis of their apparent success and their diverse value chains. The business models are compared to draw inferences and lessons regarding their business strategy and contextual factors that influenced it. Key differences between telemedicine business practices in developing and developed countries are also discussed. The purpose of this article is to inform and inspire the business strategy of the next generation of telemedicine ventures to be economically sustainable and to successfully address local healthcare challenges.

Openness in innovation and business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anna B.; Günzel, Franziska; Ulhøi, John Parm

2013-01-01

models in the newspaper industry. Based on interviews with key informants from the two largest media groups in Denmark, together with archival data from 2002 to 2011, we show how the internet and related technology developments have disrupted the long-standing successful business model of the industry......The literature on open innovation portrays open business models as a contemporary and extremely useful tool, which can be used by companies to create and capture value in collaboration with external partners. This paper takes the discussion a step further by examining the effect of opening business....... Our findings suggest that a more nuanced view and balanced understanding of the term ‘openness’ as regards business models is needed, since open business models may have other manifestations and implications for business model viability than have been reported in the literature so far....

Efficient Business Service Consumption by Customization with Variability Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Stollberg

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The establishment of service orientation in industry determines the need for efficient engineering technologies that properly support the whole life cycle of service provision and consumption. A central challenge is adequate support for the efficient employment of komplex services in their individual application context. This becomes particularly important for large-scale enterprise technologies where generic services are designed for reuse in several business scenarios. In this article we complement our work regarding Service Variability Modelling presented in a previous publication. There we presented an approach for the customization of services for individual application contexts by creating simplified variants, based on model-driven variability management. That work presents our revised service variability metamodel, new features of the variability tools and an applicability study, which reveals that substantial improvements on the efficiency of standard business service consumption under both usability and economic aspects can be achieved.

Designing Network-based Business Model Ontology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hashemi Nekoo, Ali Reza; Ashourizadeh, Shayegheh; Zarei, Behrouz

2015-01-01

Survival on dynamic environment is not achieved without a map. Scanning and monitoring of the market show business models as a fruitful tool. But scholars believe that old-fashioned business models are dead; as they are not included the effect of internet and network in themselves. This paper...... is going to propose e-business model ontology from the network point of view and its application in real world. The suggested ontology for network-based businesses is composed of individuals` characteristics and what kind of resources they own. also, their connections and pre-conceptions of connections...... such as shared-mental model and trust. However, it mostly covers previous business model elements. To confirm the applicability of this ontology, it has been implemented in business angel network and showed how it works....

Business Models and Regulation | Distributed Generation Interconnection

Science.gov (United States)

Collaborative | NREL Business Models and Regulation Business Models and Regulation Subscribe to new business models and approaches. The growing role of distributed resources in the electricity system is leading to a shift in business models and regulation for electric utilities. These

Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle

OpenAIRE

Hofmann, Barbara; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Uhlendorff, Arne

2017-01-01

In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women?s first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control ...

Social Business Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Cristina Enache

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A Social Business embraces networks of people to create business value. A Social Business connects people to expertise. It enable individuals – whether customers, partners or employees – to form networks to generate new sources of innovation, foster creativity, and establish greater reach and exposure to new business opportunities. It establishes a foundational level of trust across these business networks and, thus, a willingness to openly share information. It empowers these networks with the collaborative, gaming and analytical tools needed for members to engage each other and creatively solve business challenges. A Social business strives to remove unnecessary boundaries between experts inside the company and experts in the marketplace. It embraces the tools and leadership models that support capturing knowledge and insight from many sources, allowing it to quickly sense changes in customer mood, employee sentiment or process efficiencies. It utilizes analytics and social connections inside and outside the company to solve business problems and capture new business opportunities. A Social Business leverages these social networks to speed up business, gaining real time insight to make quicker and better decisions. It gets information to customers and partners in new ways -- faster. Supported by ubiquitous access on mobile devices and new ways of connecting and working together in the Cloud and on open platforms, a Social Business turns time and location from constraints into advantages. Business is free to occur when and where it delivers the greatest value, allowing the organization to adapt quickly to the changing marketplace. We believe the most effective approach to enabling a Social Business centers around helping people discover expertise, develop social networks and capitalize on relationships.

Best Practice Examples of Circular Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guldmann, Eva

Best practice examples of circular business models are presented in this report. The purpose is to inform and inspire interested readers, in particular companies that aspire to examine the potentials of the circular economy. Circular business models in two different sectors are examined, namely...... the textile and clothing sector as well as the durable goods sector. In order to appreciate the notion of circular business models, the basics of the circular economy are outlined along with three frameworks for categorizing the various types of circular business models. The frameworks take point of departure...... in resource loops, value bases and business model archetypes respectively, and they are applied for analysing and organizing the business models that are presented throughout the report. The investigations in the report show that circular business models are relevant to businesses because they hold...

An introduction to business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten

2014-01-01

A business model is a sustainable way of doing business. Here sustainability stresses the ambition to survive over time and create a successful, perhaps even profitable, entity in the long run. The reason for this apparent ambiguity around the concept of profitability is, of course, that business...... models apply to many different settings than the profit-oriented company. The application of business models is much broader and is a meaningful concept both in relation to public-sector administration, NGO’s, schools and universities and us, as individuals. Whether, in the case of the privately owned...... company, profits are retained by the shareholders or distributed in some degree to a broader mass of stakeholders is not the focus here. Rather, it is the point of this book to illustrate how one may go about conceptualizing, analyzing or communicating the business model of a company, organisation...

Family Business and Careers: Classic and Contemporary Issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucaccini, Luigi F.; Muscat, Eugene J.

2001-01-01

Presents models and life-cycle stages of family businesses and issues that have an impact on family business careers. Addresses the roles of career counselors and human resource professionals in supporting family businesses. (SK)

Explaining the Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News Over the Business Cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, Joost; Kuiper, Ivo

This paper analyzes the impact of unemployment news on stock markets throughout the business cycle. We show dependence of the reaction to the economic environment by studying the reaction in multiple economic environments that are defined based on both the level and momentum of economic activity.

REDISCOVERING MISES-HAYEK MONETARY AND BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS: CREDIT EXPANSION AS A SOURCE OF ECONOMIC BOOM AND BUST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcin Mrowiec

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The article starts with a brief description of Mises’ monetary theory, with emphasis on the Misesian differentiation of two kinds of credit: commodity and circulation credit, and with the description of the impact of circulation credit expansion on the business cycle. Further on it is described how Mises’ insights constituted the kernel of Austrian Business Cycle Theory, and how the same observations on the nature of credit constituted the kernel of the Chicago Plan (though Mises’ views on the nature of credit led him to different conculsions than it led the authors of the Chicago Plan, and how this plan is being “rediscovered” now. The following sections deal with observations of one of the preeminent current macroeconomic researches, Mr. Claudio Borio, on the elasticity of credit as the source of the current crisis, and on the importance of the financial cycle in analysing the current economic crisis. The author of this text demonstrates that Austrian Business Cycle Theory gave the same answer regarding the sources of economic crises that now modern macroeconomic theory seems to be approaching, and that the postulates for successful financial cycle modeling are already included in the ABCT. Finally, some observations on the current crisis, as well as proposals of avenues of further research are proposed.

The relationship between macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators and work-related injuris among Danish construction workers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lander, Flemming; Lauritsen, Jens

2015-01-01

Objectives The current study examines and compares the relationship between both macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators, and work-related injuries among construction workers in Denmark using emergency department (ED) injury data and also officially reported injuries...... (range 0.14–0.20) and WEA injuries (range 0.13–0.36). Furthermore, although there is some variability in the strength of the relationship of the different business cycle indicators, the relationships are generally not stronger for the WEA injuries than for the ED injuries, except for general unemployment....... Similarly, no substantial differences in strength of relation between industry-specific and macroeconomic indicators were identified. Conclusions The study shows that there was no difference in the relationship between business cycle indicators, and WEA and ED injury data. This indicates that changes...

Exploration through Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knab, Sebastian; Rohrbeck, René

2015-01-01

With this research we aim to enhance our understanding about how incumbents can explore emerging opportunities through business model innovation. Using a multiple-case, longitudinal research design spanning 2008 to 2014 we investigate exploration activities of the four largest German energy...... utilities in the emerging virtual power plant market. Based on the behavioral theory of the firm, we study how the cognitive and physical elements of an incumbent’s strategy can be changed and how these changes affect its business model innovation activities in the exploration process. Our preliminary...... findings suggest that the use of synergies and probing can lead to changing physical elements and primarily increase business model maturity. CEO change and structural separation can lead to changing cognitive elements and primarily increase business model sophistication....

From Digital Disruption to Business Model Scalability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten; Thomsen, Peter Poulsen

2017-01-01

This article discusses the terms disruption, digital disruption, business models and business model scalability. It illustrates how managers should be using these terms for the benefit of their business by developing business models capable of achieving exponentially increasing returns to scale...... will seldom lead to business model scalability capable of competing with digital disruption(s)....... as a response to digital disruption. A series of case studies illustrate that besides frequent existing messages in the business literature relating to the importance of creating agile businesses, both in growing and declining economies, as well as hard to copy value propositions or value propositions that take...

System Thinking and Business Model Canvas for Collaborative Business Models Design

OpenAIRE

Pereira , Sergio; Medina , Franciele; Gonçalves , Rodrigo ,; Silva , Márcia

2016-01-01

Part 10: Collaborative Systems; International audience; The purpose of this research is to reduce the existing gap between the abstraction of the real world and business modeling. For that, we combine two solutions: the soft systems methodology (SSM) and business model canvas (BMC). The first step is to introduce the theoretical concepts of both. The second step is the application of each methodology separately. Moreover, the final stage is to feed the BMC with the outputs of SSM. Was verifie...

How Small Businesses Market Their Products during the Different Phases of the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Swedish Ice Cream Manufacturers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annika Hallberg

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The Swedish ice cream market of today is dominated by a few major market leaders, which makes it a challenge for small firms to make themselves visible and survive on a long-term basis. The aim of this article is to investigate and understand how small firms in the ice cream business market their products, based on the marketing mix and the portfolio matrix, during the different phases of the product life cycle. The combination of the two models for strategic planning enables the marketing manager to conduct a more complete analysis of existing products and their place on the market and in the product life cycle. Eight CEOs of small-scale ice cream companies were interviewed. This study found that the marketing activities and strategies of large companies cannot be transferred to and implemented in small-scale businesses. Different marketing theories are developed for big businesses that have many employees and expert knowledge, which small companies do not possess. They also have less resources and knowledge to invest in expensive marketing activities in the marketing mix, and therefore the marketing mix models need to incorporate more of inexpensive marketing.

Towards Sustainable Growth Business Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamp-Roelands, N.; Balkenende, J.P.; Van Ommen, P.

2012-03-15

The Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition (DSGC) has the following objectives: The DSGC aims to pro-actively drive sustainable growth business models along three lines: (1) Shape. DSGC member companies aim to connect economic profitability with environmental and social progress on the basis of integrated sustainable growth business models; (2) Share. DSGC member companies aim for joint advocacy of sustainable growth business models both internationally and nationally; and (3) Stimulate. DSGC member companies aim to stimulate and influence the policy debate on enabling sustainable growth - with a view to finding solutions to the environmental and social challenges we are facing. This is their first report. The vision, actions and mission of DSGC are documented in the Manifesto in Chapter 2 of this publication. Chapter 3 contains an overview of key features of an integrated sustainable growth business model and the roadmap towards such a model. In Chapter 4, project examples of DSGC members are presented, providing insight into the hands-on reality of implementing the good practices. Chapter 5 offers an overview of how the Netherlands provides an enabling environment for sustainable growth business models. Chapter 6 offers the key conclusions.

"The Political Business Cycle: New Evidence from the Nixon Tapes"

OpenAIRE

Burton A. Abrams; James L. Butkiewicz

2011-01-01

Drawing from the personal tape recordings made during the presidency of Richard Nixon, we uncover and report in this paper new evidence that Nixon manipulated Arthur Burns and the Federal Reserve Bank into creating a political business cycle that helped secure Nixon’s reelection victory in 1972. Nixon understood the risks that his desired monetary policy imposed, but chose to trade longer-term economic costs to the economy for his own short-term political benefit.

Roles of Technology and Nontechnology Shocks in the Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Shingo Watanabe

2006-01-01

The empirical study of technology shocks is intensively conducted to evaluate plausibility of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. A popular method is to identify technology shocks by the long-run restriction that those solely have permanent effects on labor productivity in the system consisting of labor productivity growth and hours worked. While it has an advantage of not using Solow residuals which tend to accompany measurement errors, it potentially misidentifies nontechn...

Business Process Modelling for Measuring Quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heidari, F.; Loucopoulos, P.; Brazier, F.M.

2013-01-01

Business process modelling languages facilitate presentation, communication and analysis of business processes with different stakeholders. This paper proposes an approach that drives specification and measurement of quality requirements and in doing so relies on business process models as

Cycle e-business: the e-business of Gaz De France; Cycle e-business: l'e-business de Gaz de France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-07-01

This paper deals with the Gaz De France Group position in the e-business context. In terms of e-business, all is done to put Internet at the marketing service. Three examples of Internet sites realization and the future policy are presented. (A.L.B.)

The Concept of Business Model Scalability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Morten; Nielsen, Christian

2018-01-01

-term pro table business. However, the main message of this article is that while providing a good value proposition may help the rm ‘get by’, the really successful businesses of today are those able to reach the sweet-spot of business model scalability. Design/Methodology/Approach: The article is based...... on a ve-year longitudinal action research project of over 90 companies that participated in the International Center for Innovation project aimed at building 10 global network-based business models. Findings: This article introduces and discusses the term scalability from a company-level perspective......Purpose: The purpose of the article is to de ne what scalable business models are. Central to the contemporary understanding of business models is the value proposition towards the customer and the hypotheses generated about delivering value to the customer which become a good foundation for a long...

Part-time Employment and Business Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Fialová, Kamila

2017-01-01

Roč. 17, č. 2 (2017), s. 179-203 ISSN 1213-2446 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-15008S Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : business cycle * part-time employment * working time Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/revecp.2017.17.issue-2/revecp-2017-0009/revecp-2017-0009.pdf

BANKING BUSINESS MODELS IN UKRAINIAN BANKING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuliya Onyshchenko

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to work out and characterize bank business models that are formed in Ukraine. Methodology. Our research we will spend among banks that are functioning on the Ukrainian financial market and are not on the stage of liquidation, so the sample under study in our work is comprised of 131 banks which are different in their ownership structure and size. The core of the methodology is a statistical clustering algorithm that allows identifying the groups of banks (clusters with similar business models as banks with similar business model strategies have made similar choices regarding the composition of their assets and liabilities. The cluster analyses were taken on the base of seven chosen indicators: bank loans, bank liabilities, enterprise loans, enterprise liabilities, household loans, household liabilities and trading assets. Results. The traditional business model of bank is worked out. The bank business models that are functioning in Ukraine are identified on the base of cluster analyses using balance sheet characteristics of 131 Ukrainian banks. We find that in Ukraine were formed three types of bank business models: “Focused retail”, “Diversified retail” and “Corporative retail”. The description of each model is given. Practical implications. More detailed research of distinguished models allows not only to find out the main advantages and disadvantages of each bank model, but also the main problems that follow the development of Ukrainian banking sector. Identifying of bank models and their studying simplifies searching and elaboration of regulatory instruments as there is a two-way causation between regulation and bank business models. This implies a symbiotic relationship between regulation and bank business models: business models respond to regulation which in turn responds to the evolution of new business models. Value/originality. Such survey is conducted at the first time among Ukrainian banks. The

Business models of heat entrepreneurship in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okkonen, Lasse; Suhonen, Niko

2010-01-01

This paper presents the business models of small-scale heat energy production in Finland. Firstly, the development of heat entrepreneurship in the country is presented, including the remarkable growth of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in the last 15 years. Secondly, the concept of business model (business architecture of product/service flows and earning logics) is modified to the framework of wood heat production. The business model concept, and its sub-concepts, is applied in a brief review of current heat energy businesses in Finland. We arrive at a business model of heat entrepreneurships that are public companies/utilities, public-private partnerships, private companies and cooperatives, Energy Saving Company (ESCO), network model of large enterprise and franchising. Descriptive cases of these models are presented. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion on the applicability of the business models in different operational environments and geographical contexts.

Business models of heat entrepreneurship in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okkonen, Lasse [North Karelia University of Applied Sciences, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu (Finland); Suhonen, Niko [University of Eastern Finland, Department of Law, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu (Finland)

2010-07-15

This paper presents the business models of small-scale heat energy production in Finland. Firstly, the development of heat entrepreneurship in the country is presented, including the remarkable growth of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in the last 15 years. Secondly, the concept of business model (business architecture of product/service flows and earning logics) is modified to the framework of wood heat production. The business model concept, and its sub-concepts, is applied in a brief review of current heat energy businesses in Finland. We arrive at a business model of heat entrepreneurships that are public companies/utilities, public-private partnerships, private companies and cooperatives, Energy Saving Company (ESCO), network model of large enterprise and franchising. Descriptive cases of these models are presented. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion on the applicability of the business models in different operational environments and geographical contexts. (author)

Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

2015-01-01

This study constructs a theoretical volatility transmission model for petroleum and FX markets, taking into account major stylized facts and uncertainty measures and the interactions between them under stages of the business cycle. It examines the impacts of those different specifications and economic factors on the spillovers between those considered markets. The results show that the impacts of the “own” shocks (petroleum on petroleum and currency on currency) are statistically significant and positive in almost all cases as expected for the models of natural gas and WTI oil, irrespectively of the currency considered. The asymmetry effect is stronger in the oil than in the natural gas markets. There is stronger and significant evidence that uncertainty affects volatility much more the mean. For the WTI oil, almost all policy and other uncertainty measures lead to an increase in the conditional variance. For currencies, coefficients are commonly significant independent of the presence of petroleum commodities in the bivariate model. The striking result for natural gas is the limited statistical relevance of the economic policy and other uncertainty measures due to the long contracts that characterize this market. Finally, common macroeconomic forces associated with the business cycle can drive these petroleum and currency markets and may cause jumps and co-jumps in the volatility of these markets. The conclusion provides policy implications of the paper’s results. - Highlights: • Examine the impacts of uncertainty measures on energy and currency interaction. • Examine the impacts of asymmetry on energy and currency interactions. • There is stronger asymmetry in oil compared to natural gas. • Uncertainty measures have an impact on volatility dynamics for oil and currencies. • Uncertainty measures do not have an impact on natural gas.

Choosing Appropriate Business Models

OpenAIRE

UNCTAD; World Bank

2018-01-01

This note provides guidance on considerations in the selection of an appropriate business model through which to conduct an agricultural investment. Agricultural investments have a wide range of impacts, positive and negative. The choice of business model is one, but by no means the only, determining factor of the financial success of the investment, as well as its socioeconomic and enviro...

Business model or strategy: which comes first?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis, Jesper Deleuran; Lueg, Rainer; Mayanja, Remmy

2015-01-01

There is an ongoing debate on how the concepts of strategy and business models relate to each other. Specifically, it is a puzzle whether business models determine strategies, or whether strategies precede business models (Seddon et al., 2004). Based on recent conceptual considerations (Cavalcante...... et al., 2011), the authors attempt to solve this puzzle by considering their mutual influence at different stages of the company’s business lifecycle. For that, the auhors use Scandinavian Software Company (SSC) as a case study. The initial idea of a business model is shown to shape SSC’s strategy...... in the birth phase. It is then argued that this relationship changed as SSC entered its growth phase and met competition, and the product market strategy determined the change in the business model. The researchers contribute to the currently underexplored dynamic relationship of business models and strategies...

Business model in marketplace industry using business model canvas approach: An e-commerce case study

Science.gov (United States)

Erlyana, Yana; Hartono, Henny

2017-12-01

The advancement of technology has huge impact on commerce world, especially in the marketplace that has shifted from brick-and-mortar to digital/online marketplace. Grasping the opportunity, ABC joined venture with DEF to create a new online venture namely XYZ Online Shop - an e-commerce website that has large segmentations. The objective of this research is to analyze the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop by utilizing Business Model Canvas Framework and SWOT analysis. The results obtained from the research are that the business model conducted by XYZ Online Shop excels in customer relationship block and still needs to improve key partner and key activities blocks. Business Model Canvas along with SWOT analysis describes how XYZ Online Shop creates, delivers, and captures value based on its internal and external environments.

Green communication: The enabler to multiple business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindgren, Peter; Clemmensen, Suberia; Taran, Yariv

2010-01-01

Companies stand at the forefront of a new business model reality with new potentials - that will change their basic understanding and practice of running their business models radically. One of the drivers to this change is green communication, its strong relation to green business models and its...... possibility to enable lower energy consumption. This paper shows how green communication enables innovation of green business models and multiple business models running simultaneously in different markets to different customers.......Companies stand at the forefront of a new business model reality with new potentials - that will change their basic understanding and practice of running their business models radically. One of the drivers to this change is green communication, its strong relation to green business models and its...

The Concept of Business Model Scalability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten

2015-01-01

The power of business models lies in their ability to visualize and clarify how firms’ may configure their value creation processes. Among the key aspects of business model thinking are a focus on what the customer values, how this value is best delivered to the customer and how strategic partners...... are leveraged in this value creation, delivery and realization exercise. Central to the mainstream understanding of business models is the value proposition towards the customer and the hypothesis generated is that if the firm delivers to the customer what he/she requires, then there is a good foundation...... for a long-term profitable business. However, the message conveyed in this article is that while providing a good value proposition may help the firm ‘get by’, the really successful businesses of today are those able to reach the sweet-spot of business model scalability. This article introduces and discusses...

Globalizing High-Tech Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turcan, Romeo V.

2012-01-01

resources and behavioral patterns. Two sources could be identified that effect these tensions, namely strategic experimentation and business model experimentation. For example, entrepreneurs are trying to ease the tensions in the organizational gestalt as a result of a change in the business model...... and growth path. To internationalize, international new ventures have to develop a product-led business model as services do not travel. Opting to attract venture capital, entrepreneurs are to deal with dyadic tensions that are the result of differences in entrepreneurs’ and VCs’ goals and measures...

Innovations in retail business models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sorescu, A.; Frambach, R.T.; Singh, J.; Rangaswamy, A.; Bridges, C.

2011-01-01

A retail business model articulates how a retailer creates value for its customers and appropriates value from the markets. Innovations in business models are increasingly critical for building sustainable advantage in a marketplace defined by unrelenting change, escalating customer expectations,

Innovating a business model for services with storytelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Morten

2012-01-01

In recent years, the notion of business models has been able to innovate the way companies create new business opportunities. However, because business models most often constitute on a complex interplay of several actors, there is a need to be able to explore the nature of a business model....... This paper will propose to describe a business model by means of storytelling. In addition the paper will introduce the concept of archetypes of business models with the aim to seek a pat- tern in the light of the numerous business models available. Two cases will illustrate and dis- cuss storytelling...... and archetypes, and lead to the conclusion that they represent a valuable ap- proach to understanding and innovating business models....

The timing of pollution abatement investments and the business cycle. An international comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bouman, M. [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Hofkes, M.W. [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

A simple equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean- and dirty-producing plants is developed. The authors derive that the optimal timing of cleaning the production process is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.S.A. It appears that for more than 25 percent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show counter-cyclical behaviour, while in only one sector these investments are pro-cyclical. 1 tab., 3 appendices, 10 refs.

The timing of pollution abatement investments and the business cycle. An international comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouman, M.; Hofkes, M.W.

1995-01-01

A simple equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean- and dirty-producing plants is developed. The authors derive that the optimal timing of cleaning the production process is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.S.A. It appears that for more than 25 percent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show counter-cyclical behaviour, while in only one sector these investments are pro-cyclical. 1 tab., 3 appendices, 10 refs

Model of high-tech businesses management under the trends of explicit and implicit knowledge markets: classification and business model

OpenAIRE

Guzel Isayevna Gumerova; Elmira Shamilevna Shaimieva

2015-01-01

Objective to define the notion of ldquohightech businessrdquo to elaborate classification of hightech businesses to elaborate the business model for hightech business management. Methods general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical cognition. Results the research presents a business model of hightech businesses management basing on the trends of explicit and explicit knowledge market with the dominating implicit knowledge market classification of hightech business...

Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

OpenAIRE

Meertens, Lucas Onno

2013-01-01

This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture. Currently, increasing amounts of businesses rely on IT systems to do their business. However, success rates of IT implementations projects are low. Difficulties exist in aligning existing IT systems with b...

Practicing Business Model Management in New Ventures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malin Malmström

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to enhance the knowledge of business modeling in the early phases by exploring its core components and the management of those components. This will be achieved by answering the following exploratory questions: What aspects of business model components do entrepreneurs process in the early stages? How do entrepreneurs process those aspects? Design/Methodology/Approach: In this qualitative study, data was collected during semi-structured inter- views with six entrepreneurs. Findings: The findings support the argument that when studying the early stages of business model manage- ment, to gain a richer understanding of the entrepreneurial process, acknowledging the resource activities is important. Our findings highlight that cash and competence appear to be essential focus in managing busi- ness model components in early stage. We also found that entrepreneurs may create resource slack that al- lows businesses to carve out a competitive position in the marketplace by focusing on business model design and management. Originality/Value: Although business model research is developing rapidly, one prominent gap in the field is how entrepreneurs manage their business models in the early start-up stages. In particular, there is a lack of knowledge about what entrepreneurs focus on in their business model management in early start-up stages and how they manage these aspects, an area to which this research contributes.

A framework for sustainable interorganizational business model

OpenAIRE

Neupane, Ganesh Prasad; Haugland, Sven A.

2016-01-01

Drawing on literature on business model innovations and sustainability, this paper develops a framework for sustainable interorganizational business models. The aim of the framework is to enhance the sustainability of firms’ business models by enabling firms to create future value by taking into account environmental, social and economic factors. The paper discusses two themes: (1) application of the term sustainability to business model innovation, and (2) implications of integrating sustain...

Business models of transnational entrepreneurs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Decker, Arnim; Riddle, Liesl; Lucas, Steven

Our paper investigates the modes of business model innovation (BMI) that transna-tional entrepreneurs pursue when operating in emerging economy context. Drawingon a sample of 32 African diaspora entrepreneurs, we investigate how entrepreneurs leverage transnational social networks to adapt business...... that there is a need for more empirical evidence with systematic samplings of relevant cases, in particular within the context of emerging economies. Second, to the best of our knowledge no research on business model creation and innovation from the perspective of transnational entrepreneur ship has yet been...... undertaken. Our investigation however indicates that transnational entrepreneurs operating in emerging economies engage in different forms of business model innovation and thus contribute in significant ways to economic development. In so far, our study opens up a new avenue of research....

Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnildo da Silva Correa

2014-09-01

Full Text Available We use microdata from the Credit Information System (SCR of the Central Bank of Brazil to study the relationship between credit default and business cycles. In particular, we study the first part of the argument underlying the discussion about procyclicality related to the Basel II Accord: that recessions might increase credit defaults and have adverse impacts on the losses in portfolios of lender institutions. We explore both time series and cross-sectional variation in the data. Our data on the individual level are composed of retail loan transactions in two modalities-Consumer Credit and Vehicle Financing-from 2003 to 2008. Our results support the idea of a negative relationship between business cycles and credit default, but less strong than suggested in previous studies that use corporate data. We also find low and dispersed default correlations, and smaller losses in Value at Risk (VaR experiments than those found in the literature. These results may be possibly explained by the fact that, in the retail sector, loans are given to a large number of individuals, which may help to diversify risks.

Adding intrapreneurial role in HR business partner model: (an extension in the HR business partner model)

OpenAIRE

Bashir, Jibran; Afzal, Sara

2009-01-01

Purpose: The Purpose of this paper is to introduce a concept, whereby extending the Dave Ulrich’s HR business partner model by adding fifth Role – The HR Intrapreneur Role – in the existing model. This will be done by combining two separate concepts “Four Roles HR Business Partner Model” and “Intrapreneurial HR”, resulting in a five roles HR Business Partner Model. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is introducing a new concept through theoretical research. Findings: H...

BUSINESS MODEL PATTERNS FOR DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

OpenAIRE

BENJAMIN AMSHOFF; CHRISTIAN DÜLME; JULIAN ECHTERFELD; JÜRGEN GAUSEMEIER

2015-01-01

Companies nowadays face a myriad of business opportunities as a direct consequence of manifold disruptive technology developments. As a basic characteristic, disruptive technologies lead to a severe shift in value-creation networks giving rise to new market segments. One of the key challenges is to anticipate the business logics within these nascent and formerly unknown markets. Business model patterns promise to tackle this challenge. They can be interpreted as proven business model elements...

The Formalization of the Business Process Modeling Goals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ligita Bušinska

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In business process modeling the de facto standard BPMN has emerged. However, the applications of this notation have many subsets of elements and various extensions. Also, BPMN still coincides with many other modeling languages, forming a large set of available options for business process modeling languages and dialects. While, in general, the goal of modelers is a central notion in the choice of modeling languages and notations, in most researches that propose guidelines, techniques, and methods for business process modeling language evaluation and/or selection, the business process modeling goal is not formalized and not transparently taken into account. To overcome this gap, and to explicate and help to handle business process modeling complexity, the approach to formalize the business process modeling goal, and the supporting three dimensional business process modeling framework, are proposed.

The Importance of Classification to Business Model Research

OpenAIRE

Susan Lambert

2015-01-01

Purpose: To bring to the fore the scientific significance of classification and its role in business model theory building. To propose a method by which existing classifications of business models can be analyzed and new ones developed. Design/Methodology/Approach: A review of the scholarly literature relevant to classifications of business models is presented along with a brief overview of classification theory applicable to business model research. Existing business model classification...

A Conceptual Framework of Business Model Emerging Resilience

OpenAIRE

Goumagias, Nik; Fernandes, Kiran; Cabras, Ignazio; Li, Feng; Shao, Jianhao; Devlin, Sam; Hodge, Victoria Jane; Cowling, Peter Ivan; Kudenko, Daniel

2016-01-01

In this paper we introduce an environmentally driven conceptual framework of Business Model change. Business models acquired substantial momentum in academic literature during the past decade. Several studies focused on what exactly constitutes a Business Model (role model, recipe, architecture etc.) triggering a theoretical debate about the Business Model’s components and their corresponding dynamics and relationships. In this paper, we argue that for Business Models as cognitive structures,...

An Appraisal Of Groupon E-Business Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odeniyi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract A new kind of business digital age middleman which ordinarily may not have been possible has emerged. An instance is Groupon an e-commerce platform which allows a small group of merchants to reach a large number of customers using internet and social media technologies to provide discounted deals. Therefore the purpose of this study is to appraise the Groupon e-business model. Firstly the brief profile and business model was examined. Thereafter an in-depth Social Legal Economic Political Technological EcologicalEnvironmental and Competitive SLEPTEC analysis of the business model was carried out. Then the elements of the business model and the resulting growth and advantages that bring about competitive and profits in the modern markets for Groupon were evaluated. The findings shows that simple technologies of email and social media can be leveraged for business success especially in massive subscribers base as currently witnessed by Groupon. The study revealed the associated problems with the Groupon e-business platform and thus conclusively recommends how the business model can be improved via considerations of other technological factors.

Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fábio Luiz Zandoval Bonazzi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Unlike the past, currently, thinking about innovation refers to a reflection of value cocreation through strategic alliances, customer approach and adoption of different business models. Thus, this study analyzed and described the innovation process of company DSM, connecting it to concepts of organizational development strategies and the theory of business model. This is a basic interpretive qualitative research, developed by means of a single case study conducted through interviews and documentary analysis. This study enabled us to categorize the company business model as an open, unbundled and innovative model, which makes innovation a dependent variable of this internal configuration of value creation and value capture. As a theoretical contribution, we highlight the convergence and complementarity of the “Business Model Canvas” tool and “Innovation Funnel,” used here, to analyze the empirical case.

Styles in business process modeling: an exploration and a model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Fahland, D.; Weidlich, M.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.

2015-01-01

Business process models are an important means to design, analyze, implement, and control business processes. As with every type of conceptual model, a business process model has to meet certain syntactic, semantic, and pragmatic quality requirements to be of value. For many years, such quality

Future of business models in manufacturing

OpenAIRE

Seidel, Johannes; Barquet, Ana-Paula; Seliger, Günther; Kohl, Holger

2017-01-01

In order to achieve systematic change in pursuit of sustainable manufacturing, both a strategic long-term perspective employing methods from future studies and a concrete implementation of the knowledge gained in sustainable business models are necessary. In this chapter, the concepts and exemplary methods for sustainable business model innovation are introduced with a special focus on sustainable manufacturing. Circular Economy-based business models and Product Service Systems are explained ...

Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

Numerical exploration of Kaldorian interregional macrodynamics: stability and the trade threshold for business cycles under fixed exchange rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Asada, Toichiro; Douskos, Christos; Markellos, Panagiotis

2011-01-01

The stability of equilibrium and the possibility of generation of business cycles in a discrete interregional Kaldorian macrodynamic model with fixed exchange rates are explored using numerical methods. One of the aims is to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the numerical approach for dynamical systems of moderately high dimensionality and several parameters. The model considered is five-dimensional with four parameters, the speeds of adjustment of the goods markets and the degrees of economic interactions between the regions through trade and capital movement. Using a grid search method for the determination of the region of stability of equilibrium in two-dimensional parameter subspaces, and coefficient criteria for the flip bifurcation - and Hopf bifurcation - curve, we determine the stability region in several parameter ranges and identify Hopf bifurcation curves when they exist. It is found that interregional cycles emerge only for sufficient interregional trade. The relevant threshold is predicted by the model at 14 - 16 % of trade transactions. By contrast, no minimum level of capital mobility exists in a global sense as a requirement for the emergence of interregional cycles; the main conclusion being, therefore, that cycles may occur for very low levels of capital mobility if trade is sufficient. Examples of bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams illustrating the occurrence of cycles or period doubling, and examples of the development of the occurring cycles, are given. Both supercritical and subcritical bifurcations are found to occur, the latter type indicating coexistence of a point and a cyclical attractor.

Airbnb’s Business Model

OpenAIRE

Reinhold, Stephan; Dolnicar, Sara

2017-01-01

Peer-to-peer accommodation platforms create value by matching guests who search for tourist accommodation with hosts who make available unused private space for short-term rental. This chapter analyses what is new about the business model of platforms that enable and sustain peer-to-peer accommodation networks. Chapters 4 and 5 go on to analyse in detail the business model of Airbnb, the leading international peer-to-peer accommodation network facilitator.

Business models of the collaborative economy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gyimóthy, Szilvia

2017-01-01

Collaborative business models are often equated with disruptive commercial endeavors, epitomised by a handful large global sharing platforms. They represent a certain archetype of business model, extracting profit from market-mediated peer exchanges. A narrow focus on for-profit models obstructs...... coming to terms with the full scope of the collaborative economy phenomena, driven by purposes and actors beyond commercial market domains. This chapter attempts to broaden this perspective by reviewing alternative value creation mechanisms and presents emerging business model archetypes....

When Arm’s Length is Too Far : Relationship Banking over the Business Cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beck, T.H.L.; Degryse, H.A.; de Haas, R.; van Horen, N.

2014-01-01

Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks’ lending techniques affect funding to SMEs over the business cycle. For 21 countries we link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms’ credit constraints at two

Developing Personal Network Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saugstrup, Dan; Henten, Anders

2006-01-01

The aim of the paper is to examine the issue of business modeling in relation to personal networks, PNs. The paper builds on research performed on business models in the EU 1ST MAGNET1 project (My personal Adaptive Global NET). The paper presents the Personal Network concept and briefly reports...

A Boolean Approach to Airline Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvass, Kristian Anders

Research in business model innovation has identified its significance in creating a sustainable competitive advantage for a firm, yet there are few empirical studies identifying which combination of business model activities lead to success and therefore deserve innovative attention. This study...... analyzes the business models of North America low-cost carriers from 2001 to 2010 using a Boolean minimization algorithm to identify which combinations of business model activities lead to operational profitability. The research aim is threefold: complement airline literature in the realm of business model...... innovation, introduce Boolean minimization methods to the field, and propose alternative business model activities to North American carriers striving for positive operating results....

Modelling in Business Model design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Simonse, W.L.

2013-01-01

It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

Dynamic pricing models for electronic business

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

learning. We present a detailed example of an e-business market to show the ... to auction based models and §6 is devoted to game theoretic models. ..... Machine learning models: An e-business market provides a rich playground for online.

'Virtual' central business office: how UMMS improved revenue cycle performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Henciak, Bill; Fontaine, Christine; Fields, Keith; Parks, Stacy

2010-06-01

Based on its experience with implementing a virtual central business office, UMMS recommends the following steps to ensure the success of such an initiative: Define the process flow for the organization's day-today revenue cycle operations prior to implementation. Then select best practices and milestones for managing accounts. Identify any possible technology issues that could arise during implementation prior to go live. Hold a midproject debriefing with staff. Develop an organizational chart that details who is responsible for handling issues that arise during implementation and afterward.

Triple-layer smart grid business model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Zheng; Lundgaard, Morten; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2016-01-01

Viewing the smart grid with the theory of business models may open opportunities in understanding and capturing values in new markets. This study tries to discover and map the smart grid ecosystem-based business model framework with two different environments (sub-Saharan Africa and Denmark......), and identifies the parameters for the smart grid solutions to the emerging markets. This study develops a triple-layer business model including the organizational (Niche), environmental (Intermediate), and global (Dominators) factors. The result uncovers an interface of market factors and stakeholders...... in a generic smart grid constellation. The findings contribute the transferability potential of the smart grid solutions between countries, and indicate the potential to export and import smart grid solutions based on the business modeling....

Modeling Business Processes in Public Administration

Science.gov (United States)

Repa, Vaclav

During more than 10 years of its existence business process modeling became a regular part of organization management practice. It is mostly regarded. as a part of information system development or even as a way to implement some supporting technology (for instance workflow system). Although I do not agree with such reduction of the real meaning of a business process, it is necessary to admit that information technologies play an essential role in business processes (see [1] for more information), Consequently, an information system is inseparable from a business process itself because it is a cornerstone of the general basic infrastructure of a business. This fact impacts on all dimensions of business process management. One of these dimensions is the methodology that postulates that the information systems development provide the business process management with exact methods and tools for modeling business processes. Also the methodology underlying the approach presented in this paper has its roots in the information systems development methodology.

" Canvas " and the Legal Business Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frederico de Andrade Gabrich

2016-06-01

Full Text Available There is no idea, business or company, private or public control, which does not require an appropriate legal strategy to be implemented as efficiently as possible. Therefore, there is no way actually know the areas of law that are directly related to the business organization, without analysis of the planning logic and implementation of ideas generally used by companies. More than that, the combination of modeling and business planning is essential, with appropriate legal and related strategic planning of business objectives. So it’s the need and the importance of developing a Legal Business Model that can be used in combination with Canvas.

Business Models for Corporate Innovation Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brem, Alexander; Trapp, Martin; Voigt, Kai-Ingo

2018-01-01

or a specific product innovation. From a body of extant literature, we develop a BMI identification tool which is then tested by senior managers from four large European corporations to assess whether innovation efforts represent BMI. The tool operationalises BMI and offers straightforward criteria......Business model innovation (BMI) is the process of integrating a new logic of doing business into an established firm to improve profitability or to capitalise on new business opportunities. However, existing research offers only limited clarity on BMI compared to business model upgrades...

A Comparative of business process modelling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Tangkawarow, I. R. H. T.; Waworuntu, J.

2016-04-01

In this era, there is a lot of business process modeling techniques. This article is the research about differences of business process modeling techniques. For each technique will explain about the definition and the structure. This paper presents a comparative analysis of some popular business process modelling techniques. The comparative framework is based on 2 criteria: notation and how it works when implemented in Somerleyton Animal Park. Each technique will end with the advantages and disadvantages. The final conclusion will give recommend of business process modeling techniques that easy to use and serve the basis for evaluating further modelling techniques.

Business Value of Information Technology Service Quality Based on Probabilistic Business-Driven Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaka Sembiring

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The business value of information technology (IT services is often difficult to assess, especially from the point of view of a non-IT manager. This condition could severely impact organizational IT strategic decisions. Various approaches have been proposed to quantify the business value, but some are trapped in technical complexity while others misguide managers into directly and subjectively judging some technical entities outside their domain of expertise. This paper describes a method on how to properly capture both perspectives based on a  probabilistic business-driven model. The proposed model presents a procedure to calculate the business value of IT services. The model also covers IT security services and their business value as an important aspect of IT services that is not covered in previously published researches. The impact of changes in the quality of IT services on business value will also be discussed. A simulation and a case illustration are provided to show the possible application of the proposed model for a simple business process in an enterprise.

Business Performer-Centered Design of User Interfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Kênia; Vanderdonckt, Jean

Business Performer-Centered Design of User Interfaces is a new design methodology that adopts business process (BP) definition and a business performer perspective for managing the life cycle of user interfaces of enterprise systems. In this methodology, when the organization has a business process culture, the business processes of an organization are firstly defined according to a traditional methodology for this kind of artifact. These business processes are then transformed into a series of task models that represent the interactive parts of the business processes that will ultimately lead to interactive systems. When the organization has its enterprise systems, but not yet its business processes modeled, the user interfaces of the systems help derive tasks models, which are then used to derive the business processes. The double linking between a business process and a task model, and between a task model and a user interface model makes it possible to ensure traceability of the artifacts in multiple paths and enables a more active participation of business performers in analyzing the resulting user interfaces. In this paper, we outline how a human-perspective is used tied to a model-driven perspective.

Business Models within DataCite

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heller, Alfred

DataCite provides persitent identifiers, especially DOIs for research data. What is the Business Model for DataCite and it's members? How to run international research infrastructures?......DataCite provides persitent identifiers, especially DOIs for research data. What is the Business Model for DataCite and it's members? How to run international research infrastructures?...

Design and Operationalization of Technological Business Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Jabłoński

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The mechanisms of the network paradigm increasingly affecting the operation of companies form a new dimension of strategic management today. This applies also to the look at the design and operationalization of business models. Business models that become a source of competitive advantage in the market should have such a configuration that will provide the company with the capability to develop and grow in value. Innovation in particular determines this capability, which is the basis for the ability to create technologically new products and services. An interesting issue, not fully examined yet, is defining the principles of the design and operationalization of such business models in which technology determines their efficiency and effectiveness. These models may be technological business models. The aim of this paper is to discuss the important areas related to the design and operationalization of technological business models in the network environment and to present conclusions that are the basis for further research in this area. The author argues that in today’s, increasingly virtual reality effective and efficient tools for generating new value proposition for customers is the skillful design and use of technological business models developed by companies’ participation in the network environment. It is materialized in the form of achieving superior business results by the company.

Syntax highlighting in business process models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reijers, H.A.; Freytag, T.; Mendling, J.; Eckleder, A.

2011-01-01

Sense-making of process models is an important task in various phases of business process management initiatives. Despite this, there is currently hardly any support in business process modeling tools to adequately support model comprehension. In this paper we adapt the concept of syntax

Value increasing business model for e-hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Null, Robert; Wei, June

2009-01-01

This paper developed a business value increasing model for electronic hospital (e-hospital) based on electronic value chain analysis. From this model, 58 hospital electronic business (e-business) solutions were developed. Additionally, this paper investigated the adoption patterns of these 58 e-business solutions within six US leading hospitals. The findings show that only 36 of 58 or 62% of the e-business solutions are fully or partially implemented within the six hospitals. Ultimately, the research results will be beneficial to managers and executives for accelerating e-business adoptions for e-hospital.

Exploring the Freemium Business Model

OpenAIRE

Reime, Erlend Vihovde

2011-01-01

This thesis is exploring the Freemium business model, answering how a Freemium model is defined and how it works in real-life. It discusses the original definition by Fred Wilson, and present the context where the Freemium business model is used, Internet services in the Web 2.0. It also looks at how customers react to free services and the Internet. After this, the three main directions within business strategy theory are explored: Industry-based competition, Firm-specific Resources and Capa...

Exploring Digital News Publishing Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindskow, Kasper

News publishers in the industrialized world are experiencing a fundamental challenge to their business models because of the changing modes of consumption, competition, and production of their offerings that are associated with the emergence of the networked information society. The erosion...... of the traditional business models poses an existential threat to news publishing and has given rise to a continuing struggle among news publishers to design digital business models that will be sustainable in the future. This dissertation argues that a central and underresearched aspect of digital news publishing...... business models concerns the production networks that support the co-production of digital news offerings. To fill this knowledge gap, this dissertation explores the strategic design of the digital news publishing production networks that are associated with HTML-based news offerings on the open Web...

Understanding Business Models in Pharmacy Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Holdford, David A

2017-06-01

The objectives of this article are to define business models, contrast the business models in pharmacy schools, and discuss issues that can arise from misunderstandings about whom pharmacy schools serve and how they do so.

Network-induced oscillatory behavior in material flow networks and irregular business cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Helbing, Dirk; Lämmer, Stefen; Witt, Ulrich; Brenner, Thomas

2004-11-01

Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of power grids remains to be explored. Based on a simple model of supply networks, we offer an interpretation of instabilities and oscillations observed in biological, ecological, economic, and engineering systems. We find that most supply networks display damped oscillations, even when their units—and linear chains of these units—behave in a nonoscillatory way. Moreover, networks of damped oscillators tend to produce growing oscillations. This surprising behavior offers, for example, a different interpretation of business cycles and of oscillating or pulsating processes. The network structure of material flows itself turns out to be a source of instability, and cyclical variations are an inherent feature of decentralized adjustments.

Do Business Cycles Have Long-Term Impact for Particular Cohorts?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben M.; Maibom, Jonas; Svarer, Michael

Will the current employment crisis produce lost generations with permanently lower labour market attachment? Taking an explicit cohort perspective and based on Danish data we do not find strong persistence in employment rates at the cohort level. Younger workers tend to be more exposed to business...... cycle fluctuations than older workers, but importantly they recover more quickly from such set-backs than older workers for whom persistence is stronger. Moreover, no cohorts have been disproportionately affected by exposure to a sequence of adverse shocks. An explicit account of overlapping cohorts...

Communicating and reporting on the business model

OpenAIRE

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten

2014-01-01

The problem – as well as the prospect – with business models is that they are concerned with being different; as business in general thrives on some sort of unique selling point. So the bundle of indicators on value creation, business models, strategy, intellectual capital, and so on, which will be relevant to analyze or communicate about will differ from firm to firm. Therefore, this chapter focuses on the business model as the integrating concept for reporting and analysis of strategic type...

Match your sales force structure to your business life cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Zoltners, Andris A; Sinha, Prabhakant; Lorimer, Sally E

2006-01-01

Although companies devote considerable time and money to managing their sales forces, few focus much thought on how the structure of the sales force needs to change over the life cycle of a product or a business. However, the organization and goals of a sales operation have to evolve as businesses start up, grow, mature, and decline if a company wants to keep winning the race for customers. Specifically, firms must consider and alter four factors over time: the differing roles that internal salespeople and external selling partners should play, the size of the sales force, its degree of specialization, and how salespeople apportion their efforts among different customers, products, and activities. These variables are critical because they determine how quickly sales forces respond to market opportunities, they influence sales reps' performance, and they affect companies' revenues, costs, and profitability. In this article, the authors use timeseries data and cases to explain how, at each stage, firms can best tackle the relevant issues and get the most out of their sales forces. During start-up, smart companies focus on how big their sales staff should be and on whether they can depend upon selling partners. In the growth phase, they concentrate on getting the sales force's degree of specialization and size right. When businesses hit maturity, companies should better allocate existing resources and hire more general-purpose salespeople. Finally, as organizations go into decline, wise sales leaders reduce sales force size and use partners to keep the business afloat for as long as possible.

Scalability of Sustainable Business Models in Hybrid Organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Jabłoński

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The dynamics of change in modern business create new mechanisms for company management to determine their pursuit and the achievement of their high performance. This performance maintained over a long period of time becomes a source of ensuring business continuity by companies. An ontological being enabling the adoption of such assumptions is such a business model that has the ability to generate results in every possible market situation and, moreover, it has the features of permanent adaptability. A feature that describes the adaptability of the business model is its scalability. Being a factor ensuring more work and more efficient work with an increasing number of components, scalability can be applied to the concept of business models as the company’s ability to maintain similar or higher performance through it. Ensuring the company’s performance in the long term helps to build the so-called sustainable business model that often balances the objectives of stakeholders and shareholders, and that is created by the implemented principles of value-based management and corporate social responsibility. This perception of business paves the way for building hybrid organizations that integrate business activities with pro-social ones. The combination of an approach typical of hybrid organizations in designing and implementing sustainable business models pursuant to the scalability criterion seems interesting from the cognitive point of view. Today, hybrid organizations are great spaces for building effective and efficient mechanisms for dialogue between business and society. This requires the appropriate business model. The purpose of the paper is to present the conceptualization and operationalization of scalability of sustainable business models that determine the performance of a hybrid organization in the network environment. The paper presents the original concept of applying scalability in sustainable business models with detailed

Measures of Quality in Business Process Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radek Hronza

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Business process modelling and analysing is undoubtedly one of the most important parts of Applied (Business Informatics. Quality of business process models (diagrams is crucial for any purpose in this area. The goal of a process analyst’s work is to create generally understandable, explicit and error free models. If a process is properly described, created models can be used as an input into deep analysis and optimization. It can be assumed that properly designed business process models (similarly as in the case of correctly written algorithms contain characteristics that can be mathematically described. Besides it will be possible to create a tool that will help process analysts to design proper models. As part of this review will be conducted systematic literature review in order to find and analyse business process model’s design and business process model’s quality measures. It was found that mentioned area had already been the subject of research investigation in the past. Thirty-three suitable scietific publications and twenty-two quality measures were found. Analysed scientific publications and existing quality measures do not reflect all important attributes of business process model’s clarity, simplicity and completeness. Therefore it would be appropriate to add new measures of quality.

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

OpenAIRE

Bankim Chadha; Eswar Prasad

1997-01-01

This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, whereas relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Hi...

IS READY ROMANIA FOR EURO ADOPTION? FROM STRUCTURAL CONVERGENCE TO BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinas Marius - Corneliu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify gaps between economic and commercial structures between Romania and the euro area and to explain whether the results obtained justify recently decision to delay euro adoption beyond 2015. According to theory of optimum currency areas, the existence of similar economic structures, increasing trade integration and synchronization of business cycles with monetary union will provide greater symmetry of shocks between Romania and the euro area. If the shocks are more symmetrical, then common monetary policy of the European Central Bank will act as a tool to neutralize the shocks in the case of Romania, and the euro adoption would have fewer adverse effects. To meet the research objective, we have structured this paper into three parts. In the first part we referred to the importance of the proposed theme in the economic literature. In the second part, we used several statistical methods to identify how divergent is Romania relative to the euro area economies. The results obtained show increasing divergence between economic structures until 2009 year using the NACE 6 methodology. In fact, Romania has the most divergent structure in EU-27 countries, being characterized by lowest contribution of services to GDP. However, structural differences do not constitute an obstacle to euro adoption, as long as Romania becomes more commercially integrated with other European countries. Thus, Romania is the seventh economy in terms of trade with the EU-27 (73.3% of exports and 74.3% of imports, and the degree of convergence between the structure of exports and imports have increased significantly compared with 2000 year. In the third part, we estimated the degree of synchronization of business cycles between Romania and the euro area, based on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Results showed an increasing correlation of business cycles as a result of increasing industrial activity and export synchronization.

Virtual Business Collaboration Conceptual Knowledge Model (VBCKM)

OpenAIRE

Morcous Massoud Yassa; Fatama A Omara; Hesham A Hassan

2012-01-01

Within the context of virtual business collaboration modeling, many pervious works have been accepted to consider some essential virtual business collaborative models. A practical dynamic virtual organization may be a combination of those models and some other elemental features with some modifications to meet the business opportunity requirements. Therefore, some guidelines and rules are needed to help in constructing a practical collaboration model. This work aims to determine the essential...

Membangun Business Model: Sebuah Telaah Konseptual Dan Pengalaman Praktis

OpenAIRE

Sobirin, Achmad

2007-01-01

Business model is relatively a new term that emerged in 1990s together with the mushroom of e-business. Conceptually business model is therefore still in infancy. Despite this fact however it does matter (Magretta, 2002). Business model which is conceived as the logic of doing business, a construct, a mental model or a business paradigm, is considered a guide on how to do every day's business. Based on the above mentioned understanding, this paper based on action research study, discus...

A meta-model perspective on business models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alberts, Berend Thomas; Meertens, Lucas Onno; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Nieuwenhuis, Lambertus Johannes Maria; Shishkov, Boris

2013-01-01

The business model field of research is a young and emerging discipline that finds itself confronted with the need for a common language, lack of conceptual consolidation, and without adequate theoretical development. This not only slows down research, but also undermines business model’s usefulness

New global ICT-based business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

Business process modeling in healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Francisco; Garcia, Felix; Calahorra, Luis; Llorente, César; Gonçalves, Luis; Daniel, Christel; Blobel, Bernd

2012-01-01

The importance of the process point of view is not restricted to a specific enterprise sector. In the field of health, as a result of the nature of the service offered, health institutions' processes are also the basis for decision making which is focused on achieving their objective of providing quality medical assistance. In this chapter the application of business process modelling - using the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) standard is described. Main challenges of business process modelling in healthcare are the definition of healthcare processes, the multi-disciplinary nature of healthcare, the flexibility and variability of the activities involved in health care processes, the need of interoperability between multiple information systems, and the continuous updating of scientific knowledge in healthcare.

Life Cycle Assessment as Entrepreneurial Tool for Business Management and Green Innovations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cassiano Moro Piekarski

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A transition for a green economy has encouraged companies to use new tools which promote internal corporate entrepreneurship, increase the competitiveness and achieve sustainable results. This article presented a theoretical discussion of how the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA can presents as an entrepreneurial tool for modern business management and green innovation. Studies of LCA were analyzed showing benefits and applications in the areas of strategic planning, production, process of development of products, search and development, social and environmental responsibility, and marketing. As for green innovations, there were analyzed studies of innovations in products, processes and services. The tool assists in making sustainable decisions, fortifies the management of the business processes, the management of operations and the promotion of greener innovations.

Continuous business model innovation in the Danish newspaper industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anna B.; Günzel, Franziska

Business model innovation is undoubtedly of strategic importance in innovation management. However, little is known on how in fact how companies experiment and innovate with regards to their business models. To shed more light on this issue, we have conducted a qualitative study of the newspaper...... industry in Denmark. Business model innovation became imperative for the traditional newspaper publishers after many years of the declining readership and revenues. We collected rich primary and secondary data from various sources during 2010-2012. Our analysis suggests that changing business models in its...... various parts does not guarantee a successful business model change and may even harm the existing well-functioning business model. To innovate a business model successfully, managers need to secure the business logic flow and its feedback loops....

Business models for additive manufacturing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hadar, Ronen; Bilberg, Arne; Bogers, Marcel

2015-01-01

Digital fabrication — including additive manufacturing (AM), rapid prototyping and 3D printing — has the potential to revolutionize the way in which products are produced and delivered to the customer. Therefore, it challenges companies to reinvent their business model — describing the logic...... of creating and capturing value. In this paper, we explore the implications that AM technologies have for manufacturing systems in the new business models that they enable. In particular, we consider how a consumer goods manufacturer can organize the operations of a more open business model when moving from...... a manufacturer-centric to a consumer-centric value logic. A major shift includes a move from centralized to decentralized supply chains, where consumer goods manufacturers can implement a “hybrid” approach with a focus on localization and accessibility or develop a fully personalized model where the consumer...

Strategic collaboration on business model innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjerding, Allan Næs; Kringelum, Louise Tina Brøns

The present paper focuses on collaboration as a source of hybridization of the market in the case of business model innovation. The basic argument is that while hybridization economizes on transaction costs, it also gives rise to transaction costs. In effect, transaction costs appears...... as a dialectical phenomenon. The argument is illustrated by a narrative of a case of radical business model innovation. The narrative shows how collaborators economize on transaction costs by developing a mutual understanding and shared interpretation of business model innovation, but at the same time gives rise...

The investor perspective on business models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian

2014-01-01

Disclosure of information on strategies, business models, critical success factors, risk factors and value drivers in general has gained importance in recent years. Both policy makers and academics have argued that the demand for external communication of new types of value drivers is rising...... as companies increasingly base their competitive strengths and thus the value of the company on know-how, patents, skilled employees and other intangibles. In parallel with the focus on disclosure of value drivers, the concept of business models has gained popularity. However, business models in terms of “ways...

Experience economy meets business model design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Smed, Søren Graakjær; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig

2012-01-01

Through the last decade the experience economy has found solid ground and manifested itself as a parameter where business and organizations can differentiate from competitors. The fundamental premise is the one found in Pine & Gilmores model from 1999 over 'the progression of economic value' where...... produced, designed or staged experience that gains the most profit or creates return of investment. It becomes more obvious that other parameters in the future can be a vital part of the experience economy and one of these is business model innovation. Business model innovation is about continuous...

Business model innovation: the role of leadership