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Sample records for black death epidemics

  1. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

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    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

  2. Contribution of volcanic forcing to the initiation of the Black Death Epidemic

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    Fell, Henry; Baldini, James; Dodds, Ben

    2017-04-01

    The 14th Century plague epidemic, commonly termed the Black Death, coincided with the tumultuous climatic shift from the relative stability of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the initiation of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Plague is predominantly a vector borne disease that is spread through the transmission of the Yersinia pestis bacteria. This bacterium may have originated in the rodent populations of the Tibetan Plateau and later spread rapidly westward though Eurasia after vector transmission to humans. Several studies have determined that Asian rodent and vector populations are highly sensitive to climatic perturbations. The Samalas eruption of 1257 was the largest injection of aerosols in the Common Era and therefore probably had a significant climatic effect. Through a range of proxy records across Eurasia we reconstruct the climate for the period immediately preceding the outbreak of plague. This study investigates the interaction between the Samalas eruption of 1257, the climatic response to the event and the potential effect on the initiation of the Black Death epidemic which shaped population and culture across Eurasia for centuries.

  3. Selectivity of Black Death mortality with respect to preexisting health

    OpenAIRE

    DeWitte, Sharon N.; Wood, James W.

    2008-01-01

    Was the mortality associated with the deadliest known epidemic in human history, the Black Death of 1347–1351, selective with respect to preexisting health conditions (“frailty”)? Many researchers have assumed that the Black Death was so virulent, and the European population so immunologically naïve, that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, irrespective of age, sex, or frailty. If this were true, Black Death cemeteries would provide unbiased cross-sections of demographic and epidemiological...

  4. Contesting the Cause and Severity of the Black Death: A Review Essay

    OpenAIRE

    Noymer, A.

    2007-01-01

    The essay is a book review of Ole J. Benedictow's "The Black Death, 1346-1353: The Complete History". It discusses the history, demography, and epidemiology of the Black Death, an epidemic that struck fourteenth-century Europe with a severity that has not be equaled by any other epidemic in recorded history, before or since.

  5. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

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    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  6. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

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    Sharon N DeWitte

    Full Text Available The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75 and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246 cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143. The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133 was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  7. Setting the stage for medieval plague: Pre-black death trends in survival and mortality.

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    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2015-11-01

    The 14(th) -century Black Death was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, killing tens of millions of people in a short period of time. It is not clear why mortality rates during the epidemic were so high. One possibility is that the affected human populations were particularly stressed in the 14(th) century, perhaps as a result of repeated famines in areas such as England. This project examines survival and mortality in two pre-Black Death time periods, 11-12(th) centuries vs 13(th) century CE, to determine if demographic conditions were deteriorating before the epidemic occurred. This study is done using a sample of individuals from several London cemeteries that have been dated, in whole or in part, either to the 11-12(th) centuries (n = 339) or 13(th) century (n = 258). Temporal trends in survivorship and mortality are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and by modeling time period as a covariate affecting the Gompertz hazard of adult mortality. The age-at-death distributions from the two pre-Black Death time periods are significantly different, with fewer older adults in 13(th) century. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicate reductions in survival before the Black Death, with significantly lower survival in the 13(th) century (Mantel Cox p < 0.001). Last, hazard analysis reveals increases in mortality rates before the Black Death. Together, these results suggest that health in general was declining in the 13(th) century, and this might have led to high mortality during the Black Death. This highlights the importance of considering human context to understand disease in past and living human populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

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    Welford, Mark R; Bossak, Brian H

    2009-12-22

    Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  9. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

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    Mark R Welford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues" and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  10. Young, Black, and Sentenced To Die: Black Males and the Death Penalty.

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    Joseph, Janice

    1996-01-01

    Explores the death penalty as imposed on young black males in the United States and examines the disparity in death penalty rates for homicides with black offenders and white victims. States continue to impose the death penalty rather than viewing youth violence as a failure of the social system. (SLD)

  11. Historical Y. pestis Genomes Reveal the European Black Death as the Source of Ancient and Modern Plague Pandemics.

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    Spyrou, Maria A; Tukhbatova, Rezeda I; Feldman, Michal; Drath, Joanna; Kacki, Sacha; Beltrán de Heredia, Julia; Arnold, Susanne; Sitdikov, Airat G; Castex, Dominique; Wahl, Joachim; Gazimzyanov, Ilgizar R; Nurgaliev, Danis K; Herbig, Alexander; Bos, Kirsten I; Krause, Johannes

    2016-06-08

    Ancient DNA analysis has revealed an involvement of the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis in several historical pandemics, including the second plague pandemic (Europe, mid-14(th) century Black Death until the mid-18(th) century AD). Here we present reconstructed Y. pestis genomes from plague victims of the Black Death and two subsequent historical outbreaks spanning Europe and its vicinity, namely Barcelona, Spain (1300-1420 cal AD), Bolgar City, Russia (1362-1400 AD), and Ellwangen, Germany (1485-1627 cal AD). Our results provide support for (1) a single entry of Y. pestis in Europe during the Black Death, (2) a wave of plague that traveled toward Asia to later become the source population for contemporary worldwide epidemics, and (3) the presence of an historical European plague focus involved in post-Black Death outbreaks that is now likely extinct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Non-homogeneous stochastic birth and death processes with applications to epidemic outbreak data

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    van den Broek, J.

    2012-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the non-homogeneous birth-death process with some of its special cases and its use in modeling epidemic data. This model describes changes in the size of a population. New population members can appear with a rate, called the birth rate or the reproductive power, and

  13. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

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    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  14. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

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    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  15. A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.

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    Bos, Kirsten I; Schuenemann, Verena J; Golding, G Brian; Burbano, Hernán A; Waglechner, Nicholas; Coombes, Brian K; McPhee, Joseph B; DeWitte, Sharon N; Meyer, Matthias; Schmedes, Sarah; Wood, James; Earn, David J D; Herring, D Ann; Bauer, Peter; Poinar, Hendrik N; Krause, Johannes

    2011-10-12

    Technological advances in DNA recovery and sequencing have drastically expanded the scope of genetic analyses of ancient specimens to the extent that full genomic investigations are now feasible and are quickly becoming standard. This trend has important implications for infectious disease research because genomic data from ancient microbes may help to elucidate mechanisms of pathogen evolution and adaptation for emerging and re-emerging infections. Here we report a reconstructed ancient genome of Yersinia pestis at 30-fold average coverage from Black Death victims securely dated to episodes of pestilence-associated mortality in London, England, 1348-1350. Genetic architecture and phylogenetic analysis indicate that the ancient organism is ancestral to most extant strains and sits very close to the ancestral node of all Y. pestis commonly associated with human infection. Temporal estimates suggest that the Black Death of 1347-1351 was the main historical event responsible for the introduction and widespread dissemination of the ancestor to all currently circulating Y. pestis strains pathogenic to humans, and further indicates that contemporary Y. pestis epidemics have their origins in the medieval era. Comparisons against modern genomes reveal no unique derived positions in the medieval organism, indicating that the perceived increased virulence of the disease during the Black Death may not have been due to bacterial phenotype. These findings support the notion that factors other than microbial genetics, such as environment, vector dynamics and host susceptibility, should be at the forefront of epidemiological discussions regarding emerging Y. pestis infections.

  16. An epidemic of illicit fentanyl deaths in Cook County, Illinois: September 2005 through April 2007.

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    Denton, J Scott; Donoghue, Edmund R; McReynolds, Jennifer; Kalelkar, Mitra B

    2008-03-01

    Between September 2005 and April 2007, 350 fentanyl intoxication deaths were investigated and certified by the Cook County Medical Examiners Office. Investigations revealed that the majority of these fatalities were by intravenous injection of a white powder followed by a rapid collapse. The fentanyl was clandestinely produced in a lab in Toluca, Mexico and sold by the Mickey Cobra street gang. The term "Drop Dead" was coined for this "tainted heroin." Postmortem samples were screened by ELISA and confirmed by standard GC-MS methods. Fentanyl fatalities peaked at 47 per month in May and June 2006. Fifty-two percent were single fentanyl intoxications, with the remainder accompanied by either cocaine, morphine from heroin, or alcohol. This epidemic stressed the limited resources of the toxicology laboratory and autopsy service of the Medical Examiners Office. The clandestine lab was terminated, distributing gang members and leaders arrested, and the epidemic ceased in April 2007.

  17. Historiography of the Epidemic of “Black Death” on the Territory of Juchid Ulus (1814–2016

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    T.F. Khaydarov

    2017-03-01

    thorough theoretical study of a subject in the field of biology of the plague, a historical study on the “Black Death in Russia” is extremely inconsistent and did not yet form a united research school. Against this background, the historiography of the epidemicBlack Death” in the Juchid ulus is situated in a better position than the research on the plague in the North-Western Rus’.

  18. Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic.

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    Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel

    2017-03-06

    Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.

  19. The Impact of the Black Death on the Golden Horde: Politics, Economy, Society, Civilization

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    Uli Schamiloglu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Research objectives and materials: This essay offers an overview of the political, economic, social, and cultural consequences of the Black Death (the epidemic of bubonic plague cause by the bacteria Yersinia pestis in the territories of the Golden Horde in the 14th–15th centuries. It considers the framework which has been developed for medieval Europe and the Middle East. It considers whether there was a medieval growth in population in the Golden Horde prior to the arrival of the Black Death in the mid-14th century. It considers the level of depopulation and how it led to political instability. It notes how bubonic plague was used as a weapon by the Mongol armies. It considers economic consequences such as the decline in certain professions and crafts, the threat to the food supply, and the rising cost of labor which led to inflation. It also considers the social crisis brought about by the sudden death of substantial portions of the population. Results and novelty of the research: The rise in urbanization in the 13th to mid-14th century was followed by a collapse in the population and decline in urban centers beginning in the second half of the 14th century. The Black Death also led to population pressure as most sedentary centers declined, while at the same time certain sedentary areas escaped the plague, as could many nomadic populations who were less susceptible to disease. It also examines the decline in literary languages and the growth in religiosity. Finally, it considers the recovery in the population beginning in the mid-15th century.

  20. Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

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    Tomashek, Kay M.; Gregory, Christopher J.; Rivera Sánchez, Aidsa; Bartek, Matthew A.; Garcia Rivera, Enid J.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Sun, Wellington

    2012-01-01

    Background The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care. Methods Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death. Results Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances. Conclusions During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring. PMID:22530072

  1. IARS mutation causes prenatal death in Japanese Black cattle.

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    Hirano, Takashi; Matsuhashi, Tamako; Takeda, Kenji; Hara, Hiromi; Kobayashi, Naohiko; Kita, Kazuo; Sugimoto, Yoshikazu; Hanzawa, Kei

    2016-09-01

    Isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase (IARS) c.235G > C (p.V79L) is a causative mutation for a recessive disease called IARS disorder in Japanese black cattle. The disease is involved in weak calf syndrome and is characterized by low birth weight, weakness and poor suckling. The gestation period is often slightly extended, implying that intrauterine growth is retarded. In a previous analysis of 2597 artificial insemination (AI) procedures, we suggested that the IARS mutation might contribute toward an increase in the incidence of prenatal death. In this study, we extended this analysis to better clarify the association between the IARS mutation and prenatal death. The IARS genotypes of 92 animals resulting from crosses between carrier (G/C) × G/C were 27 normal (G/G), 55 G/C and 10 affected animals (C/C) (expected numbers: 23, 46 and 23, respectively). Compared to the expected numbers, there were significantly fewer affected animals in this population (P causes calf death, but also embryonic or fetal death. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  2. SOME REASONS OF DISPLACES OF THE NOMADIC TRIBES IN EURASIA AND EXAMPLE OF THE BLACK DEATH IN CAFFA, 1346

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    Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet TEZCAN

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The nomadic tribes in Eurasian steppes, adopted a manner oflife in nomadism, were scarcely abandoning their own residences, towhich caused some factors like generally epidemics, famines, locustattacks, or dangerous foreign threats just as oppressions by theXiongnu (to the Yuezhi or the Chinese (to the Xiongnu etc. Beingone of the reasons which led the nomadic tribes as far as to theWestern Asia and the Middle Europe, the epidemics appeared also inEurasia from the very beginnings of the history and during the MiddleAges, and spread out in the Central Asia that was on the greatcommercial routes, through the great Silk Roads in general.The epidemic named as “Black Death” appeared north of theBlack Sea in Caffa in 1346 and very influenced Medieval Europenegatively, which, there existed the period of the “Hundred Years’War”. However, there is not any exact information about its origin.According to the available information and the report by Gabriele de’Mussi, it occurred first in China in 1320s, and expanded into the NearEast rapidly through the invasion routes of the Mongol armies andcommercial ones. When Janibek Khan, the khan of the Golden Hordebegan again to besiege Caffa in 1345, the Black Death occurredamong the Mongol army. And the two Genoese ships, departed fromCaffa and came in the Mediterranean Sea in 1347, caused itsexpansion to the whole European countries, except for only Polandand Czechoslovakia, in 1348-49, and then, to Russia in 1351-53.Consequently, thirty per cent of the European population perished.As to how the epidemic influenced the nomadic world inEurasia, there is not enough information about it. However, thanks toit, we can reach to some interesting valuable data about Mongolstrategies of warfare: upon that many Mongolian soldiers of theMongolian army died due to this epidemic, the Mongol khan heldresponsible the Genoese in Caffa for the death. He made their corpses thrown into the citadel by catapults, and then

  3. Opioid prescriptions for pain and epidemic of overdose death: can the dramatic reduction in anesthesia mortality serve as an example?

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    Kissin I

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Igor Kissin Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: The annual number of US deaths from prescription-opioid overdose quadrupled between 1999 and 2010 and in 2010 alone reached 16,651. Deaths from opioid overdose have now surpassed the historic death toll from another drug-related epidemic – anesthesia mortality. In 1954, Beecher and Todd published reliable data on anesthesia-related mortality in the US, estimating the annual number of deaths to be nearly 5,000. Presently anesthesia/anesthetics are reported as the underlying cause in approximately 34 deaths in the US annually. This spectacular decline in anesthesia-related mortality could serve as an example for attempts to curb the epidemic of opioid overdose death. The main reason that led to the dramatic decline in anesthesia-related mortality is the context in which anesthetics are used. It includes training of the anesthesia providers, the introduction of specific standards of patient safety, and anesthesia monitoring. I suggest that the introduction of a similar multifactorial proper context for the use of opioids in the treatment of chronic nonmalignant pain might be the same “game changer” it was for safety in anesthesia. Keywords: chronic pain, addiction, opioid-use disorder, treatment compliance, apprenticeship, metrics of opioid effectiveness, aberrant opioid-related behavior

  4. The Black Mountains turtlebacks: Rosetta stones of Death Valley tectonics

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    Miller, Marli B.; Pavlis, Terry L.

    2005-12-01

    The Black Mountains turtlebacks expose mid-crustal rock along the western front of the Black Mountains. As such, they provide keys to understanding the Tertiary structural evolution of Death Valley, and because of the outstanding rock exposure, they also provide valuable natural laboratories for observing structural processes. There are three turtlebacks: the Badwater turtleback in the north, the Copper Canyon turtleback, and the Mormon Point turtleback in the south. Although important differences exist among them, each turtleback displays a doubly plunging antiformal core of metamorphic and igneous rock and a brittle fault contact to the northwest that is structurally overlain by Miocene-Pleistocene volcanic and/or sedimentary rock. The turtleback cores contain mylonitic rocks that record an early period of top-southeastward directed shear followed by top-northwestward directed shear. The earlier formed mylonites are cut by, and locally appear concurrent with, 55-61 Ma pegmatite. We interpret these fabrics as related to large-scale, basement-involved thrust faults at the turtlebacks, now preserved as areally-extensive, metamorphosed, basement over younger-cover contacts. The younger, and far more pervasive, mylonites record late Tertiary extensional unroofing of the turtleback footwalls from mid-crustal depths. Available geochronology suggests that they cooled through 300 °C at different times: 13 Ma at Badwater; 6 Ma at Copper Canyon; 8 Ma at Mormon Point. At Mormon Point and Copper Canyon turtlebacks these dates record cooling of the metamorphic assemblages from beneath the floor of an ˜ 11 Ma Tertiary plutonic complex. Collectively these relationships suggest that the turtlebacks record initiation of ductile extension before ˜ 14 Ma followed by injection of a large plutonic complex along the ductile shear zone. Ductile deformation continued during extensional uplift until the rocks cooled below temperatures for crystal plastic deformation by 6-8 Ma

  5. 'Death Star' Galaxy Black Hole Fires at Neighboring Galaxy

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    2008-12-01

    This "death star" galaxy was discovered through the combined efforts of both space and ground-based telescopes. NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory, Hubble Space Telescope, and Spitzer Space Telescope were part of the effort. The Very Large Array telescope, Socorro, N.M., and the Multi-Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network (MERLIN) telescopes in the United Kingdom also were needed for the finding. Illustration of Jet Striking Galaxy (unlabeled) Illustration of Jet Striking Galaxy (unlabeled) "We've seen many jets produced by black holes, but this is the first time we've seen one punch into another galaxy like we're seeing here," said Dan Evans, a scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and leader of the study. "This jet could be causing all sorts of problems for the smaller galaxy it is pummeling." Jets from super massive black holes produce high amounts of radiation, especially high-energy X-rays and gamma-rays, which can be lethal in large quantities. The combined effects of this radiation and particles traveling at almost the speed of light could severely damage the atmospheres of planets lying in the path of the jet. For example, protective layers of ozone in the upper atmosphere of planets could be destroyed. X-ray & Radio Full Field Image of 3C321 X-ray & Radio Full Field Image of 3C321 Jets produced by super massive black holes transport enormous amounts of energy far from black holes and enable them to affect matter on scales vastly larger than the size of the black hole. Learning more about jets is a key goal for astrophysical research. "We see jets all over the Universe, but we're still struggling to understand some of their basic properties," said co-investigator Martin Hardcastle of the University of Hertfordshire, United Kingdom. "This system of 3C321 gives us a chance to learn how they're affected when they slam into something - like a galaxy - and what they do after that." Optical Image of 3C321 Optical Image of 3C321 The

  6. Famine, the Black Death, and health in fourteenth-century London

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    Daniel Antoine

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the first half of the fourteenth century two catastrophes struck the population of Europe: the Great Famine and the Black Death. The latter has been extensively studied, but much less is known about the biological effects of the Great Famine. A large assemblage of skeletal remains from one of the Black Death burial grounds, the Royal Mint cemetery in London, provides a unique opportunity to investigate these effects by analyzing the teeth of individuals who survived the famine but died during the Black Death.

  7. Rural black women's agency within intimate partnerships amid the South African HIV epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thege, Britta

    2009-12-01

    In a particular way, the HIV pandemic exposes the prevailing gender relations and the definitions of male and female gender roles, both in intimate relationships and in the wider society. The HIV pandemic reveals the contradictions between women's legal rights and the persistence of women's cultural and sexual subordination. It reflects the impact of poverty, gender roles, culture and religion. Although HIV and AIDS cuts across class, South African rural black women's infection risk seems particularly high since they suffer notably from subordination and socio-economic hardships. Negotiating safer sex in marriage or intimate partnerships is very difficult for them in view of the traditional spaces in which they find themselves, where patriarchal structures are pervasive. Based on data obtained from a case study, this paper examines socio-cultural constraints to rural women's sexual agency in a patriarchal social order. These rules are based on a patriarchal code of respect, which is still pervasive in many aspects of the community under investigation. In terms of gender relations, the patriarchal code of respect is founded on an assumed 'naturalisation' of the two genders and the natural superiority of the male over the female. In terms of sexuality it is translated into male sex-right. The fear of HIV infection is omnipresent and results in unmarried women engaging in the negotiation of their wants and needs. Owing to the patriarchal code of respect, married women are perceived as having no choice in negotiating safer sex and are forced to put their lives at risk in contracting HIV. Unmarried women have greater although not endless choices in this regard. Although the study participants unexpectedly displayed a rather negative perception of other women, in order to strengthen women in their proximal environment the HIV epidemic may be seen as a vehicle for building solidarity among women in the community.

  8. Famine, the Black Death, and health in fourteenth-century London

    OpenAIRE

    Antoine, Daniel; Hillson, Simon

    2004-01-01

    In the first half of the fourteenth century two catastrophes struck the population of Europe: the Great Famine and the Black Death. The latter has been extensively studied, but much less is known about the biological effects of the Great Famine. A large assemblage of skeletal remains from one of the Black Death burial grounds, the Royal Mint cemetery in London, provides a unique opportunity to investigate these effects by analyzing the teeth of individuals who survived the famine but died dur...

  9. Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

    2012-01-01

    At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

  10. Star's death and rebirth. White dwarfs, supernovae, pulsars, black holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otzen Petersen, J [Copenhagen Univ. (Denmark)

    1975-01-01

    The evolution of a star from a main sequence star of approximately solar mass, first to a red giant, thereafter to a white dwarf is described in detail. The evolution of more massive stars to supernovae, neutron stars and pulsars is then discussed with special reference to the Crab Nebula. Black holes and X-ray sources are also discussed, in this case with reference to the Cygnus X-1 system. In conclusion, it is pointed out that after their active phase white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes may exist as dead bodies in space, and only be observeable through their gravitational fields. It is possible that a great number of such bodies may exist, and contribute to the stability of galaxies, also possibly facilitating the explanation of the galaxies' red shifts by means of simple universe models.

  11. Prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death during an epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Verheij, T J; van Essen, G A; Lafeber, A B; Grobbee, D E; Hoes, A W

    To predict which patients with current high-risk disease in the community may benefit most from additional preventive or therapeutic measures for influenza, we determined prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death in a general practice-based case-control study among this

  12. Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossak, Brian H; Welford, Mark R

    2009-06-01

    Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available

  13. Science You Can Use Bulletin: From death comes life: Recovery and revolution in the wake of epidemic outbreaks of mountain pine beetle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl Malcolm; Chuck Rhoades; Michael Battaglia; Paula Fornwalt; Rob Hubbard; Kelly Elder; Byron Collins

    2012-01-01

    Changing climatic conditions and an abundance of dense, mature pine forests have helped to spur an epidemic of mountain pine beetles larger than any in recorded history. Millions of forested acres have been heavily impacted and have experienced extreme rates of tree mortality. This has raised concerns among many people that the death, desiccation, and decomposition of...

  14. Coping with Catastrophe: The Black Death of the 14th Century. A Unit of Study for Grades 7-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Anne

    This unit of study explains the causes, course, characteristics, and results of the Black Death during the 14th century. The Black Death, also known as the bubonic plague, left virtually no one untouched in Europe, Asia, and Northern Africa. Europe lost a third or more of its population. In a broader context, study of the unit alerts students to…

  15. Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years - United States, 1968-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

    2018-03-30

    Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. 1968-2015. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968-2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968-2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases occurring during the 1970s and 1980s followed by small but steady

  16. Ridiculed death and the dead: Black humor on the epitaphs and epigrams of the ancient Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Lađa

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Theories about black humor usually regard that it as a contemporary phenomenon and a culmination of the literary modernism and beginning of post-modernism. My intent in this paper is to refute the thesis that the black humor is a modern invention. I am going to prove its existence still in Greek antiquity, quoting and analyzing humorous epitaphs and black humor epigrams. Putting in relation black humor with the joy and humor in religious (fertility and funeral rituals, I am also going to set a question about the attitude to death and life inherent for this kind of humor, arguing that its origin should be searched in the folk tradition.

  17. [Cutaneous melanoma - "black death" of modern times? Traces in contemporary literature].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahmer, F A; Bahmer, J A

    2013-11-01

    Cutaneous melanoma, sometimes labeled as "black skin cancer", is increasing in frequency and becoming a more common literary motive. In US literature, Sylvia Plath and Charles Bukowski depicted melanoma more than 50 years ago, later Stephen King and Thomas C. Boyle. In German literature, Charlotte Roche shortly mentioned this tumor. Jörg Pönnighaus, both poet and dermatologist, intensively deals in his poems with the effects melanoma has on patients and doctors alike. Melanoma definitely is not the "Black Death" of modern times. However, the perception of this tumor as extremely malignant and as life-threatening makes melanoma a metaphor of the deadly danger of cancer.

  18. Black fly involvement in the epidemic transmission of vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (Rhabdoviridae: Vesiculovirus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Daniel G; Howerth, Elizabeth W; Murphy, Molly D; Gray, Elmer W; Noblet, Raymond; Stallknecht, David E

    2004-01-01

    The transmission routes of Vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV), a causative agent of vesicular stomatitis, an Office International des Epizooties List-A disease, are not completely understood. Epidemiological and entomological studies conducted during the sporadic epidemics in the western United States have identified potential virus transmission routes involving insect vectors and animal-to-animal contact. In the present study we experimentally tested the previously proposed transmission routes which were primarily based on field observations. Results obtained provide strong evidence for the following: (1) hematophagous insects acquire VSNJV by unconventional routes while blood feeding on livestock, (2) clinical course of VSNJV infection in livestock following transmission by an infected insect is related to insect bite site, (3) infection of livestock via insect bite can result in multiple transmission possibilities, including animal-to-animal contact. Taken together, these data significantly add to our understanding of the transmission routes of a causative agent of one of the oldest known infectious diseases of livestock, for which the details have remained largely unknown despite decades of research.

  19. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  20. Possibility of death sentence has divergent effect on verdicts for Black and White defendants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Jack; Martin, Karin D; Kahn, Kimberly B

    2015-12-01

    When anticipating the imposition of the death penalty, jurors may be less inclined to convict defendants. On the other hand, minority defendants have been shown to be treated more punitively, particularly in capital cases. Given that the influence of anticipated sentence severity on verdicts may vary as a function of defendant race, the goal of this study was to test the independent and interactive effects of these factors. We conducted a survey-embedded experiment with a nationally representative sample to examine the effect on verdicts of sentence severity as a function of defendant race, presenting respondents with a triple murder trial summary that manipulated the maximum penalty (death vs. life without parole) and the race of the defendant. Respondents who were told life-without-parole was the maximum sentence were not significantly more likely to convict Black (67.7%) than White (66.7%) defendants. However, when death was the maximum sentence, respondents presented with Black defendants were significantly more likely to convict (80.0%) than were those with White defendants (55.1%). The results indicate that the death penalty may be a cause of racial disparities in criminal justice, and implicate threats to civil rights and to effective criminal justice. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Paleoseismology of the Southern Section of the Black Mountains and Southern Death Valley Fault Zones, Death Valley, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Marsha S.; Knott, Jeffrey R.; Mahan, Shannon

    2014-01-01

    The Death Valley Fault System (DVFS) is part of the southern Walker Lane–eastern California shear zone. The normal Black Mountains Fault Zone (BMFZ) and the right-lateral Southern Death Valley Fault Zone (SDVFZ) are two components of the DVFS. Estimates of late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates and recurrence intervals for these two fault zones are uncertain owing to poor relative age control. The BMFZ southernmost section (Section 1W) steps basinward and preserves multiple scarps in the Quaternary alluvial fans. We present optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates ranging from 27 to 4 ka of fluvial and eolian sand lenses interbedded with alluvial-fan deposits offset by the BMFZ. By cross-cutting relations, we infer that there were three separate ground-rupturing earthquakes on BMFZ Section 1W with vertical displacement between 5.5 m and 2.75 m. The slip-rate estimate is ∼0.2 to 1.8 mm/yr, with an earthquake recurrence interval of 4,500 to 2,000 years. Slip-per-event measurements indicate Mw 7.0 to 7.2 earthquakes. The 27–4-ka OSL-dated alluvial fans also overlie the putative Cinder Hill tephra layer. Cinder Hill is offset ∼213 m by SDVFZ, which yields a tentative slip rate of 1 to 8 mm/yr for the SDVFZ.

  2. Signatures of energy flux in particle production: a black hole birth cry and death gasp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, Michael R.R. [Department of Physics, Nazarbayev University,53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave., Astana, Republic of (Kazakhstan); Ong, Yen Chin [Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm University,Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2015-07-27

    It is recently argued that if the Hawking radiation process is unitary, then a black hole’s mass cannot be monotonically decreasing. We examine the time dependent particle count and negative energy flux in the non-trivial conformal vacuum via the moving mirror approach. A new, exactly unitary solution is presented which emits a characteristic above-thermal positive energy burst, a thermal plateau, and negative energy flux. It is found that the characteristic positive energy flare and thermal plateau is observed in the particle outflow. However, the results of time dependent particle production show no overt indication of negative energy flux. Therefore, a black hole’s birth cry is detectable by asymptotic observers via particle count, whereas its death gasp is not.

  3. Banting Memorial Lecture 2010^. Type 2 diabetes as an 'infectious' disease: is this the Black Death of the 21st century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D R; Matthews, P C

    2011-01-01

    We are currently facing a global pandemic of obesity and Type 2 diabetes. In some settings, the population prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is 50%, and half of those affected will die from diabetes-related complications. Eight centuries ago, an epidemic of bubonic plague swept across Europe, killing at least half of its victims. We here draw comparisons between these two pandemics, proposing close analogies between the 'Black Death' of the 14th century and the modern-day equivalent of Type 2 diabetes. Both diseases can be considered in terms of an aetiological agent, a reservoir, a vector and a predisposing toxic environment; populations can be considered as highly susceptible to the transmissable agents of Type 2 diabetes in the setting of calorie excess, inadequate food labelling, poorly regulated advertising and sedentary lifestyles. As for tackling a pandemic of a contagious microbial pathogen, we believe that breaking the cycle of transmission in the diabetes epidemic must be underpinned by political will and prompt, decisive legislation backed by the medical community. Far from fearing that such measures edge us towards a 'nanny state', we believe individuals should expect a responsible government to safeguard them from the toxic milieu that puts them at risk of obesity and its complications, and that communities and populations have the right to have their health protected. © 2010 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2010 Diabetes UK.

  4. Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

    2010-01-01

    Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

  5. Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years — United States, 1968–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

    2018-01-01

    Problem/Condition Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. Period Covered 1968–2015. Description of System The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968–2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968–2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. Results From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases

  6. Exploring the Experience of Life Stress Among Black Women with a History of Fetal or Infant Death: a Phenomenological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kyrah K; Lewis, Rhonda K; Baumgartner, Elizabeth; Schunn, Christy; Maryman, J'Vonnah; LoCurto, Jamie

    2017-06-01

    Disparate birth outcomes among Black women continue to be a major public health problem. Whereas prior research has investigated the influence of stress on Black women's birth outcomes, few studies have explored how stress is experienced among Black women across the life course. The objectives of this study were to describe the experience of stress across the life course among Black women who reported a history of fetal or infant death and to identify stressful life events (SLE) that may not be represented in the widely used SLE inventory. Using phenomenological, qualitative research design, in-depth interviews were conducted with six Black women in Kansas who experienced a fetal or infant death. Analyses revealed that participants experienced multiple, co-occurring stressors over the course of their lives and experienced a proliferation of stress emerging in early life and persisting into adulthood. Among the types of stressors cited by participants, history of sexual assault (trauma-related stressor) was a key stressful life event that is not currently reflected in the SLE inventory. Our findings highlight the importance of using a life-course perspective to gain a contextual understanding of the experiences of stress among Black women, particularly those with a history of adverse birth outcomes. Further research investigating Black women's experiences of stress and the mechanisms by which stress impacts their health could inform efforts to reduce disparities in birth outcomes. An additional focus on the experience and impact of trauma-related stress on Black women's birth outcomes may also be warranted.

  7. "To look at death another way": Black teenage males' perspectives on second-lines and regular funerals in New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordere, Tashel C

    The purpose of this study was to describe how Black adolescent males understand "second-line" (musical processions) and "regular"/traditional funeral rituals in New Orleans following the violent deaths of significant persons in their lives. In-depth interviews were conducted with 10 Black males between the ages of 12 and 15 using descriptive phenomenology methodology. Findings revealed that these participants understood death as a cause for celebration, remembrance, and unity related to their experiences with the second-line ritual. Three elements of the life world of Black teenage males were descriptive of second lines, including: a) observed locations of second lines; b) dancing to good music; and c) observed messages conveyed through t-shirts. Participants provided gender-based descriptions of perceived spoken and unspoken rights in grieving at the two distinct rituals. Related to their second-line experience, the teens reflect on ways in which they wish to have their deaths ritualized.

  8. The death of mourning: from Victorian crepe to the little black dress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedikian, Sonia A

    2008-01-01

    Mourning is a natural response to loss. In the late eighteenth century and throughout the nineteenth century, in England and France, the bereaved was expected to follow a complex set of rules, particularly among the upper classes, with women more bound to adhere to these customs than men. Such customs involved wearing heavy, concealing, black costume and the use of black crepe veils. Special black caps and bonnets were worn with these ensembles. Widows were expected to wear these clothes up to four years after their loss to show their grief. Jewelry often made of dark black jet or the hair of the deceased was used. To remove the costume earlier was thought disrespectful to the deceased. Formal mourning culminated during the reign of Queen Victoria. Her prolonged grief over the death of her husband, Prince Albert, had much to do with the practice. During the succeeding Edwardian rule, the fashions began to be more functional and less restrictive, but the dress protocol for men and women, including that for the period of mourning, was still rigidly adhered to. When World War I began, many women joined the workforce. Most widows attempted to maintain the traditional conventions of mourning, but with an increase in the number of casualties, it became impractical for them to interrupt their work in order to observe the seclusion called for by formal mourning etiquette. Never had the code of mourning been less strictly applied than during this period. The mourning outfits of the time were modest and made of practical materials. Little jewelry and few other accessories were used. Certain aspects of traditional mourning were still followed, such as the use of jet beading, crepe trim, and widows' caps. However, the hemlines fell above the ankle, the veil was used to frame the face instead of cover it, and the v-neckline left the chest and neck bare. During the following decades, gradually the rules were relaxed further and it became acceptable for both sexes to dress in

  9. Early Tertiary magmatism and probable Mesozoic fabrics in the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Martin G.; Friedman, Richard M.

    1999-01-01

    We report two early Tertiary U-Pb zircon ages for pegmatite from the Black Mountains of Death Valley, California. These ages, 54.7 ± 0.6 Ma and 56 ± 3 Ma, are unique for much of southeastern California. The samples belong to a pegmatite suite that occupies part of the footwall of the Badwater turtleback, a late Tertiary extensional feature; similar but undated pegmatite intrudes the footwalls of the Copper Canyon and Mormon Point turtlebacks farther south. The pegmatite suite demonstrates that fabric development on the turtlebacks was at least a two-stage process. Fabrics cut by these pegmatites likely formed during the Mesozoic, whereas those that involve them formed during late Tertiary extension.

  10. Suicides, homicides, accidents, and other external causes of death among blacks and whites in the Southern Community Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonderman, Jennifer S; Munro, Heather M; Blot, William J; Tarone, Robert E; McLaughlin, Joseph K

    2014-01-01

    Prior studies of risk factors associated with external causes of death have been limited in the number of covariates investigated and external causes examined. Herein, associations between numerous demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors and the major causes of external mortality, such as suicide, homicide, and accident, were assessed prospectively among 73,422 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated in multivariate regression analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Men compared with women (HR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.87-2.89), current smokers (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40-2.17), and unemployed/never employed participants at the time of enrollment (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.02) had increased risk of dying from all external causes, with similarly elevated HRs for suicide, homicide, and accidental death among both blacks and whites. Blacks compared with whites had lower risk of accidental death (HR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.38-0.57) and suicide (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.31-0.99). Blacks and whites in the SCCS had comparable risks of homicide death (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.76); however, whites in the SCCS had unusually high homicide rates compared with all whites who were resident in the 12 SCCS states, while black SCCS participants had homicide rates similar to those of all blacks residing in the SCCS states. Depression was the strongest risk factor for suicide, while being married was protective against death from homicide in both races. Being overweight/obese at enrollment was associated with reduced risks in all external causes of death, and the number of comorbid conditions was a risk factor for iatrogenic deaths. Most risk factors identified in earlier studies of external causes of death were confirmed in the SCCS cohort, in spite of the low SES of SCCS participants. Results from other epidemiologic cohorts are needed to confirm the novel findings identified

  11. Suicides, homicides, accidents, and other external causes of death among blacks and whites in the Southern Community Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Sonderman

    Full Text Available Prior studies of risk factors associated with external causes of death have been limited in the number of covariates investigated and external causes examined. Herein, associations between numerous demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors and the major causes of external mortality, such as suicide, homicide, and accident, were assessed prospectively among 73,422 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated in multivariate regression analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Men compared with women (HR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.87-2.89, current smokers (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40-2.17, and unemployed/never employed participants at the time of enrollment (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.02 had increased risk of dying from all external causes, with similarly elevated HRs for suicide, homicide, and accidental death among both blacks and whites. Blacks compared with whites had lower risk of accidental death (HR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.38-0.57 and suicide (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.31-0.99. Blacks and whites in the SCCS had comparable risks of homicide death (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.76; however, whites in the SCCS had unusually high homicide rates compared with all whites who were resident in the 12 SCCS states, while black SCCS participants had homicide rates similar to those of all blacks residing in the SCCS states. Depression was the strongest risk factor for suicide, while being married was protective against death from homicide in both races. Being overweight/obese at enrollment was associated with reduced risks in all external causes of death, and the number of comorbid conditions was a risk factor for iatrogenic deaths. Most risk factors identified in earlier studies of external causes of death were confirmed in the SCCS cohort, in spite of the low SES of SCCS participants. Results from other epidemiologic cohorts are needed to confirm the novel findings

  12. Intraspecific variation in host susceptibility and climatic factors mediate epidemics of sudden oak death in western US forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Huberli; K.J. Hayden; M. Calver; M. Garbelotto

    2011-01-01

    Umbellularia californica is one of the key infectious hosts of the exotic Phytophthora ramorum, which causes sudden oak death (SOD) in California and Oregon forests. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the epidemiologically relevant parameters for SOD in California and southern Oregon, including potential differences between the two...

  13. Common roots: a contextual review of HIV epidemics in black men who have sex with men across the African diaspora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millett, Gregorio A; Jeffries, William L; Peterson, John L; Malebranche, David J; Lane, Tim; Flores, Stephen A; Fenton, Kevin A; Wilson, Patrick A; Steiner, Riley; Heilig, Charles M

    2012-07-28

    Pooled estimates from across the African diaspora show that black men who have sex with men (MSM) are 15 times more likely to be HIV positive compared with general populations and 8·5 times more likely compared with black populations. Disparities in the prevalence of HIV infection are greater in African and Caribbean countries that criminalise homosexual activity than in those that do not criminalise such behaviour. With the exception of US and African epidemiological studies, most studies of black MSM mainly focus on outcomes associated with HIV behavioural risk rather than on prevalence, incidence, or undiagnosed infection. Nevertheless, black MSM across the African diaspora share common experiences such as discrimination, cultural norms valuing masculinity, concerns about confidentiality during HIV testing or treatment, low access to HIV drugs, threats of violence or incarceration, and few targeted HIV prevention resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A retrospective study on the unseen epidemic of road traffic injuries and deaths due to accidents in Mwanza City - Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngallaba, S E; Majinge, C; Gilyoma, J; Makerere, D J; Charles, E

    2013-06-01

    Sixty percent of the global deaths and injuries occur in the developing world and mostly are due to Road traffic accidents (RTAs. looking at the etiological related factors which include, carelessness of the driver, condition of the vehicle or motorcycle, poor condition of roads, risky behavior of the driver, most of these factors can be prevented to some extent. This study therefore, determined the pattern of cases and deaths due to traffic road accidents in Mwanza City Tanzania. In this retrospective study, records, registers and case notes In the surgical ward and causality, medical records and central police station from 2008 to 2011 were used. The study focused on the two referral hospitals (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center). There were 3450 cases due to accidents reported at both centers (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center of which 3224 (93.4%) had complete information for analysis.2225 (69%) were male and 999 (31%) were female, and the most affected group were male. Among the RTAs2809 cases (87%) were due to motor cycle accidents which were the leading cause of RTAs with case fatality rate of 5% while motor vehicle has case fatality rate of 24% which is 5 times that of motor cycle. Among all RTAs the leading cause of injuries is Motor cycle traffic accidents followed by motor vehicle. RTAs are on increase particularly the motor cycle traffic accidents and has claimed a good number of innocent people's lives however most of them are preventable, therefore driving course to be introduced to motor cycle drivers with emphasize on the road posters signal, rules and regular checkup of their motor cycles especially commercial motor cycle.

  15. Exhumation of the Black Mountains in Death Valley, California, with new thermochronometric data from the Badwater Turtleback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizemore, T. M.; Cemen, I.; Wielicki, M. M.; Stockli, D. F.; Heizler, M. T.; Lutz, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Black Mountains, in Death Valley, California, are one of the key areas to better understand Basin and Range extension because they contain Cenozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks overlying mid- to deep-crustal, 1.74 Ga basement gneiss with abundant fault striations, large-scale extensional folds, and tectonite fabrics containing top-to-the-northwest shear-sense indicators. These rocks make up the footwall of three prominent, high-relief "turtleback" fault surfaces in the western flank of the Black Mountains, which are thought to have accommodated a significant amount of strain in the Death Valley area. It is unknown whether the missing Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata in the Black Mountains were removed in association with high-angle faulting, or along a continuous detachment surface with a rolling-hinge style of faulting as the hanging wall moved to the west, now forming the Panamint Range. The turtlebacks play an important role in resolving this question because they are commonly cited as containing conflicting evidence of both hypotheses. To provide insight into this problem, we are building an exhumation model across the Black Mountains using previously published thermochronometric data as well as new transect-based (U-Th)/He and Ar-Ar thermochronology and U-Pb geochronology for the Badwater turtleback. The model will provide a four-dimensional view of the exhumation history of the Black Mountains, to serve as evidence for either of the two previously mentioned hypotheses, or possibly some other style of exhumation. Additionally, we will compare the exhumation history of the Black Mountains to that of the Panamint Range using previously published data and interpretations. Our preliminary zircon U-Pb data suggest a crystallization age for the gneissic rocks on the Badwater turtleback of 1.74 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=31.8 Ma, n=6) with two younger populations at 1.46 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=51.8 Ma, n=3) and 79.6 Ma (206Pb/238U, 2σ error=10.0 Ma, n=2

  16. Structural bridging network position is associated with HIV status in a younger Black men who have sex with men epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nirav S; Iveniuk, James; Muth, Stephen Q; Michaels, Stuart; Jose, Jo-Anne; Laumann, Edward O; Schneider, John A

    2014-02-01

    Younger Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) ages 16-29 have the highest rates of HIV in the United States. Despite increased attention to social and sexual networks as a framework for biomedical intervention, the role of measured network positions, such as bridging and their relationship to HIV risk has received limited attention. A network sample (N = 620) of BMSM respondents (N = 154) and their MSM and transgendered person network members (N = 466) was generated through respondent driven sampling of BMSM and elicitation of their personal networks. Bridging status of each network member was determined by a constraint measure and was used to assess the relationship between this bridging and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), sex-drug use (SDU), group sex (GS) and HIV status within the network in South Chicago. Low, moderate and high bridging was observed in 411 (66.8 %), 81 (13.2 %) and 123 (20.0 %) of the network. In addition to age and having sex with men only, moderate and high levels of bridging were associated with HIV status (aOR 3.19; 95 % CI 1.58-6.45 and aOR 3.83; 95 % CI 1.23-11.95, respectively). Risk behaviors observed including UAS, GS, and SDU were not associated with HIV status, however, they clustered together in their associations with one another. Bridging network position but not risk behavior was associated with HIV status in this network sample of younger BMSM. Socio-structural features such as position within the network may be important when implementing effective HIV prevention interventions in younger BMSM populations.

  17. Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

    2015-11-01

    Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life

  18. Black Rice (Oryza sativa L., Poaceae) Extract Reduces Hippocampal Neuronal Cell Death Induced by Transient Global Cerebral Ischemia in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Sun-Nyoung; Kim, Jae-Cheon; Bhuiyan, Mohammad Iqbal Hossain; Kim, Joo Youn; Yang, Ji Seon; Yoon, Shin Hee; Yoon, Kee Dong; Kim, Seong Yun

    2018-04-01

    Rice is the most commonly consumed grain in the world. Black rice has been suggested to contain various bioactive compounds including anthocyanin antioxidants. There is currently little information about the nutritional benefits of black rice on brain pathology. Here, we investigated the effects of black rice ( Oryza sativa L ., Poaceae) extract (BRE) on the hippocampal neuronal damage induced by ischemic insult. BRE (300 mg/kg) was orally administered to adult male C57BL/6 mice once a day for 21 days. Bilateral common carotid artery occlusion (BCCAO) was performed for 23 min on the 8th day of BRE or vehicle administration. Histological analyses conducted on the 22nd day of BRE or vehicle administration revealed that administering BRE profoundly attenuated neuronal cell death, inhibited reactive astrogliosis, and prevented loss of glutathione peroxidase expression in the hippocampus when compared to vehicle treatment. In addition, BRE considerably ameliorated BCCAO-induced memory impairment on the Morris water maze test from the 15th day to the 22nd day of BRE or vehicle administration. These results indicate that chronic administration of BRE is potentially beneficial in cerebral ischemia.

  19. Alien rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) attack black rats (Rattus rattus) sometimes resulting in death

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández-Brito, Dailos; Luna, Amparo; Carrete, Martina; Tella, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    The rose-ring parakeet (Psittacula krameri) is one of the most successful invasive birds in its establishment worldwide. Studies addressing its potential impact on native biota mostly focus on birds and little is known about how these and other parakeet species interact with native mammals. Here, we report 21 aggressions of rose-ringed parakeets towards black rats (Rattus rattus) in urban parks in Seville (Southern Spain) and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Either solitary parakeets or, more often...

  20. HIV/AIDS prevention, faith, and spirituality among black/African American and Latino communities in the United States: strengthening scientific faith-based efforts to shift the course of the epidemic and reduce HIV-related health disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Madeline Y; Parks, Carolyn P

    2013-06-01

    Black/African American and Latino communities are disproportionately affected by the domestic HIV/AIDS epidemic. Blacks/African Americans and Latinos are also more likely to report a formal, religious, or faith affiliation when compared with non-Hispanic whites. As such, faith leaders and their institutions have been identified in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy as having a vital role to serve in reducing: (1) HIV-related health disparities and (2) the number of new HIV infections by promoting non-judgmental support for persons living with and at risk for HIV/AIDS and by serving as trusted information resources for their congregants and communities. We describe faith doctrines and faith-science partnerships that are increasing in support of faith-based HIV prevention and service delivery activities and discuss the vital role of these faith-based efforts in highly affected black/African American and Latino communities.

  1. Wildlife forensic entomology: determining time of death in two illegally killed black bear cubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G S

    1999-07-01

    Forensic entomology is now commonly used to determine time of death in human death investigations. However, it can be equally applicable to wildlife crimes. This paper describes the use of entomology to determine time of death in the illegal killing of two young bear cubs in Manitoba, Canada. Two cubs were found shot, disemboweled, with their gall bladders removed. Natural Resource officers (Conservation Officers) and a Royal Canadian Mounted Police (R.C.M.P.) officer examined the remains, and the R.C.M.P. officer collected insect evidence. The only insects on the remains were adult blow flies coming to lay eggs and the blow fly eggs themselves (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The time of hatch was recorded and the insects were reared to adulthood. Time of hatch, together with species identification, macro and micro climate and lab developmental data were used to determine the time of death. The time was consistent with the time that the defendants were seen at the scene and was used in their conviction. This case illustrates that insect evidence can be equally as valuable in poaching cases as in homicide cases. However, in most cases Conservation Officers are unaware of this science. It is therefore, extremely important for more Conservation Officers to be educated about this field.

  2. CLINICAL AND SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROFILE OF BLACK WOMEN PRONE MATERNAL DEATH: ASSISTANCE TO WOMEN IN A UNIT OF PUBLIC DF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Aparecida Trevisan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sample survey conducted in the Public Health Unit of the Federal District, with only blackwomen pregnant. Aims to verify the compliance of specific group and degree of receptivityand awareness on health pregnancy. The study area lies in women's health and training ofhealth professionals in nursing.The analyzed result goes against the interests of publicmanagement in health through compliance with international agreements established in theMillennium Development Goals to reduce maternal and infant death and the eradication ofracism-4th 5th and 9th MDG / UN. He attempts to verify the paucity of nursing actions inthe face of known pre-existing impairment of hypertension, abortions, sickle cell anemia, pre-eclampsia in women of black ethnic group, living in communities of less infrastructure andless education. Registers the range, in the Federal District, the public health policies aimed atfulfilling agreements for equality and reducing child mortality and achieving the targets for2015 of reducing the maternal and infant mortality, according tothe United Nations, which isthe 5th goal millennium.Keywords: Women's Health, the black population, the UnitedNations

  3. Unequal Burdens of Loss: Examining the Frequency and Timing of Homicide Deaths Experienced by Young Black Men Across the Life Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. I examined the frequency and developmental timing of traumatic loss resulting from the health disparity of homicide among young Black men in Baltimore, Maryland. Methods. Using a modified grounded theory approach, I conducted in-depth semistructured interviews with 40 Black men (aged 18–24 years) from January 2012 to June 2013. I also constructed adapted life history calendar tools using chronologies of loss, and (1) provided a comprehensive history of loss, (2) determined a specific frequency of homicide deaths, (3) indicated participants’ relationship to the decedents, and (4) identified the developmental timing of deaths. Results. On average, participants knew 3 homicide victims who were overwhelmingly peers. Participant experiences of homicide death started in early childhood, peaked in adolescence, and persisted into emerging adulthood. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a significant developmental turning point and disrupted participants’ social networks. Conclusions. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a prevalent life course experience for young Black men and identified the need for trauma- and grief-informed interventions. Future research is needed to examine the physical and psychosocial consequences, coping resources and strategies, and developmental implications of traumatic loss for young Black men in urban contexts. PMID:25905836

  4. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  5. Counting indirect crisis-related deaths in the context of a low-resilience health system: the case of maternal and neonatal health during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sochas, Laura; Channon, Andrew Amos; Nam, Sara

    2017-11-01

    Although the number of direct Ebola-related deaths from the 2013 to 2016 West African Ebola outbreak has been quantified, the number of indirect deaths, resulting from decreased utilization of routine health services, remains unknown. Such information is a key ingredient of health system resilience, essential for adequate allocation of resources to both 'crisis response activities' and 'core functions'. Taking stock of indirect deaths may also help the concept of health system resilience achieve political traction over the traditional approach of disease-specific surveillance. This study responds to these imperatives by quantifying the extent of the drop in utilization of essential reproductive, maternal and neonatal health services in Sierra Leone during the Ebola outbreak by using interrupted time-series regression to analyse Health Management Information System (HMIS) data. Using the Lives Saved Tool, we then model the implication of this decrease in utilization in terms of excess maternal and neonatal deaths, as well as stillbirths. We find that antenatal care coverage suffered from the largest decrease in coverage as a result of the Ebola epidemic, with an estimated 22 percentage point (p.p.) decrease in population coverage compared with the most conservative counterfactual scenario. Use of family planning, facility delivery and post-natal care services also decreased but to a lesser extent (-6, -8 and -13 p.p. respectively). This decrease in utilization of life-saving health services translates to 3600 additional maternal, neonatal and stillbirth deaths in the year 2014-15 under the most conservative scenario. In other words, we estimate that the indirect mortality effects of a crisis in the context of a health system lacking resilience may be as important as the direct mortality effects of the crisis itself. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved

  6. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  7. Black rice extract protected HepG2 cells from oxidative stress-induced cell death via ERK1/2 and Akt activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jaemin; Ham, Hyeonmi; Sung, Jeehye; Kim, Younghwa; Choi, Youngmin; Lee, Jeom-Sig; Jeong, Heon-Sang; Lee, Junsoo

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to evaluate the protective effect of black rice extract (BRE) on tert-butyl hydroperoxide (TBHP)-induced oxidative injury in HepG2 cells. MATERIALS/METHODS Methanolic extract from black rice was evaluated for the protective effect on TBHP-induced oxidative injury in HepG2 cells. Several biomarkers that modulate cell survival and death including reactive oxygen species (ROS), caspase-3 activity, and related cellular kinases were determined. RESULTS TBHP induced cell death and apoptosis by a rapid increase in ROS generation and caspase-3 activity. Moreover, TBHP-induced oxidative stress resulted in a transient ERK1/2 activation and a sustained increase of JNK1/2 activation. While, BRE pretreatment protects the cells against oxidative stress by reducing cell death, caspase-3 activity, and ROS generation and also by preventing ERKs deactivation and the prolonged JNKs activation. Moreover, pretreatment of BRE increased the activation of ERKs and Akt which are pro-survival signal proteins. However, this effect was blunted in the presence of ERKs and Akt inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that activation of ERKs and Akt pathway might be involved in the cytoprotective effect of BRE against oxidative stress. Our findings provide new insights into the cytoprotective effects and its possible mechanism of black rice against oxidative stress. PMID:24741394

  8. The Black Death

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    northern and southern Europe that the pathogen responsible is the Yersinia pestis bacterium that causes bubonic ... To describe the risks of getting the disease (Bubonic plague). 2. .... The plague bacillus grows readily on most culture media.

  9. Post-death cloning of endangered Jeju black cattle (Korean native cattle): fertility and serum chemistry in a cloned bull and cow and their offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eun Young; Song, Dong Hwan; Park, Min Jee; Park, Hyo Young; Lee, Seung Eun; Choi, Hyun Yong; Moon, Jeremiah Jiman; Kim, Young Hoon; Mun, Seong Ho; Oh, Chang Eon; Ko, Moon Suck; Lee, Dong Sun; Riu, Key Zung; Park, Se Pill

    2013-12-17

    To preserve Jeju black cattle (JBC; endangered native Korean cattle), a pair of cattle, namely a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, were produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) in a previous study. In the present study, we examined the in vitro fertilization and reproductive potentials of these post-death cloned animals. Sperm motility, in vitro fertilization and developmental capacity were examined in a post-death cloned bull (Heuk Oll Dolee) and an extinct nuclear donor bull (BK94-13). We assessed reproductive ability in another post-death cloned cow (Heuk Woo Sunee) using cloned sperm for artificial insemination (AI). There were no differences in sperm motility or developmental potential of in vitro fertilized embryos between the post-death cloned bull and its extinct nuclear donor bull; however, the embryo development ratio was slightly higher in the cloned sperm group than in the nuclear donor sperm group. After one attempt at AI, the post-death cloned JBC cow became pregnant, and gestation proceeded normally until day 287. From this post-death cloned sire and dam, a JBC male calf (Heuk Woo Dolee) was delivered naturally (weight, 25 kg). The genetic paternity/maternity of the cloned JBC bull and cow with regard to their offspring was confirmed using International Society for Animal Genetics standard microsatellite markers. Presently, Heuk Woo Dolee is 5 months of age and growing normally. In addition, there were no significant differences in blood chemistry among the post-death cloned JBC bull, the cow, their offspring and cattle bred by AI. This is the first report showing that a pair of cattle, namely, a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, had normal fertility. Therefore, SCNT can be used effectively to increase the population of endangered JBC.

  10. The Death of Imhotep: A Hermeneutical Framework for Understanding the Lack of Black Males in STEM Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mocombe, Paul C.

    2018-01-01

    In Afrocentric circles in the United States, ancient Kemetic (Egyptian) scientist Imhotep is considered the Black father of medicine. In this article, I use his name in the title as an allusion to highlight the lack of Black males matriculating in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs or fields in the United States. The…

  11. Portrait of an Epidemic: Extremely High Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevalence and Incidence Among Young Black Men Having Sex With Men and Residing in a Southern City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Leandro; Crosby, Richard A

    2017-07-01

    A 12-month prospective cohort study of 609 young black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) assessed human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion. One-hundred-seventy men (27.9%) were either human immunodeficiency virus-infected before enrollment or tested positive within 30 days afterward. Thirty (4.9%) were classified as incident infections occurring in a 12-month period. Subtracting the 170 from the denominator, incidence was 6.8%.

  12. Targeted enrichment of ancient pathogens yielding the pPCP1 plasmid of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, Verena J; Bos, Kirsten; DeWitte, Sharon; Schmedes, Sarah; Jamieson, Joslyn; Mittnik, Alissa; Forrest, Stephen; Coombes, Brian K; Wood, James W; Earn, David J D; White, William; Krause, Johannes; Poinar, Hendrik N

    2011-09-20

    Although investigations of medieval plague victims have identified Yersinia pestis as the putative etiologic agent of the pandemic, methodological limitations have prevented large-scale genomic investigations to evaluate changes in the pathogen's virulence over time. We screened over 100 skeletal remains from Black Death victims of the East Smithfield mass burial site (1348-1350, London, England). Recent methods of DNA enrichment coupled with high-throughput DNA sequencing subsequently permitted reconstruction of ten full human mitochondrial genomes (16 kb each) and the full pPCP1 (9.6 kb) virulence-associated plasmid at high coverage. Comparisons of molecular damage profiles between endogenous human and Y. pestis DNA confirmed its authenticity as an ancient pathogen, thus representing the longest contiguous genomic sequence for an ancient pathogen to date. Comparison of our reconstructed plasmid against modern Y. pestis shows identity with several isolates matching the Medievalis biovar; however, our chromosomal sequences indicate the victims were infected with a Y. pestis variant that has not been previously reported. Our data reveal that the Black Death in medieval Europe was caused by a variant of Y. pestis that may no longer exist, and genetic data carried on its pPCP1 plasmid were not responsible for the purported epidemiological differences between ancient and modern forms of Y. pestis infections.

  13. "I 'See' Trayvon Martin": What Teachers Can Learn from the Tragic Death of a Young Black Male

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Bettina L.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this article is to examine the racially hostile environment of U.S. public schooling towards Black males. Drawing on the work of Foucault ("Discipline and punish. The birth of the prison," Penguin Books, London, 1977; "Michel Foucault: beyond structuralism and hermeneutics," The Harvester Press, Brighton, 1982)…

  14. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  15. Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved. PMID:26625117

  16. Late Cenozoic tephrochronology, stratigraphy, geomorphology, and neotectonics of the Western Black Mountains Piedmont, Death Valley, California: Implications for the spatial and temporal evolution of the Death Valley fault zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knott, Jeffrey Rayburn

    This study presents the first detailed tephrochronologic study of the central Death Valley area by correlation of a Nomlaki-like tuff (>3.35 Ma), tuffs of the Mesquite Spring family (3.1 -- 3.35 Ma), a tuff of the lower Glass Mountain family (1.86 -- 2.06 Ma), and tephra layers from the upper Glass Mountain family (0.8 -- 1.2 Ma), the Bishop ash bed (0.76 Ma), the Lava Creek B ash bed (~0.66 Ma), and the Dibekulewe ash bed (~0.51 Ma). Correlation of these tuffs and tephra layers provides the first reliable numeric-age stratigraphy for late Cenozoic alluvial fan and lacustrine deposits for Death Valley and resulted in the naming of the informal early to middle Pleistocene Mormon Ploint formation. Using the numeric-age stratigraphy, the Death Valley fault zone (DVFZ) is interpreted to have progressively stepped basinward since the late Pliocene at Mormon Point and Copper Canyon. The Mormon Point turtleback or low-angle normal fault is shown to have unequivocal late Quaternary slip at its present low angle dip. Tectonic geomorphic analysis indicates that the (DVFZ) is composed of five geomorphic segments with the most persistent segment boundaries being the en-echelon step at Mormon Point and the bedrock salient at Artists Drive. Subsequent geomorphic studies resulting from the numeric-age stratigraphy and structural relations include application of Gilberts field criteria to the benches at Mormon Point indicating that the upper bench is a lacustrine strandline and the remaining topographically-lower benches are fault scarps across the 160--185 ka lake abrasion platform. In addition, the first known application of cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al exposure dating to a rock avalanche complex south of Badwater yielded an age of 29.5 +/- 1.9 ka for the younger avalanche. The 28 meter offset of the older avalanche may be interpreted as post-160--185 ka yielding a 0.1 mm/year slip rate, or post-29.5 +/- 1.9 ka yielding a maximum slip rate of 0.9 nun/year for the DVFZ. A consequence

  17. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  18. Camphor--a fumigant during the Black Death and a coveted fragrant wood in ancient Egypt and Babylon--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Weiyang; Vermaak, Ilze; Viljoen, Alvaro

    2013-05-10

    The fragrant camphor tree (Cinnamomum camphora) and its products, such as camphor oil, have been coveted since ancient times. Having a rich history of traditional use, it was particularly used as a fumigant during the era of the Black Death and considered as a valuable ingredient in both perfume and embalming fluid. Camphor has been widely used as a fragrance in cosmetics, as a food flavourant, as a common ingredient in household cleaners, as well as in topically applied analgesics and rubefacients for the treatment of minor muscle aches and pains. Camphor, traditionally obtained through the distillation of the wood of the camphor tree, is a major essential oil component of many aromatic plant species, as it is biosynthetically synthesised; it can also be chemically synthesised using mainly turpentine as a starting material. Camphor exhibits a number of biological properties such as insecticidal, antimicrobial, antiviral, anticoccidial, anti-nociceptive, anticancer and antitussive activities, in addition to its use as a skin penetration enhancer. However, camphor is a very toxic substance and numerous cases of camphor poisoning have been documented. This review briefly summarises the uses and synthesis of camphor and discusses the biological properties and toxicity of this valuable molecule.

  19. Death and Death Anxiety

    OpenAIRE

    Gonca Karakus; Zehra Ozturk; Lut Tamam

    2012-01-01

    Although death and life concepts seem so different from each other, some believe that death and life as a whole that death is accepted as the goal of life and death completes life. In different cultures, societies and disciplines, there have been very different definitions of death which changes according to personality, age, religion and cultural status of the individual. Attitudes towards death vary dramatically according to individuals. As for the death anxiety, it is a feeling which start...

  20. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  1. The HIV epidemic in Greenland - a slow spreading infection among adult heterosexual Greenlanders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn-Mortensen, Karen; Ladefoged, Karin; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths.......We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths....

  2. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  3. Neonatal Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home > Complications & Loss > Loss & grief > Neonatal death Neonatal death E-mail to a friend Please fill in ... cope with your baby’s death. What is neonatal death? Neonatal death is when a baby dies in ...

  4. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  5. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  6. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  7. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  8. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  9. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  10. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  11. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  12. Black to Black

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langkjær, Michael Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Pop musicians performing in black stage costume take advantage of cultural traditions relating to matters black. Stylistically, black is a paradoxical color: although a symbol of melancholy, pessimism, and renunciation, black also expresses minimalist modernity and signifies exclusivity (as is hi...

  13. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  14. Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

  15. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  16. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  18. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  19. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-01-01

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (−1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (−844 T > C) and CASP8 (−652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = −2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = −2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of variants in cell death pathway genes

  1. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-10-12

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (-1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (-844 T > C) and CASP8 (-652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = -2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = -2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of

  2. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  4. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  5. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Baumann

    Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  6. Black and White Differentials in Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rene, Antonio A.; Clifford, Patrick R.

    1986-01-01

    Overviews vital statistics data, emphasizing differences in health status between the Black and White populations with respect to specific diseases and mortality. Discusses major causes of death among US Blacks. (GC)

  7. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  8. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  9. Death Cafe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Lizzy; Corr, Charles A

    2017-06-01

    This article explains the meaning of the phrase Death Cafe and describes what typically occurs at a Death Cafe gathering. The article traces the history of the Death Cafe movement, explores some reasons why people take part in a Death Cafe gathering, and gives examples of what individuals think they might derive from their participation. In addition, this article notes similarities between the Death Cafe movement and three other developments in the field of death, dying, and bereavement. Finally, this article identifies two provisional lessons that can be drawn from Death Cafe gatherings and the Death Cafe movement itself.

  10. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  11. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  12. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  14. Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

    2013-01-21

    The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

    1984-01-01

    Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

  16. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.

  17. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  18. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  19. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  20. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  1. Deliberating death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landes, Scott D

    2010-01-01

    Utilizing a particular case study of a woman attempting to come to terms with her death, this article explores the difficult metaphors of death present within the Christian tradition. Tracing a Christian understanding of death back to the work of Augustine, the case study is utilized to highlight the difficulties presented by past and present theology embracing ideas of punishment within death. Following the trajectory of the case study, alternative understandings of death present in recent Christian theology and within Native American spirituality are presented in an attempt to find room for a fuller meaning of death post-reconciliation, but premortem.

  2. Black rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emparan, Roberto; Reall, Harvey S

    2006-01-01

    A black ring is a five-dimensional black hole with an event horizon of topology S 1 x S 2 . We provide an introduction to the description of black rings in general relativity and string theory. Novel aspects of the presentation include a new approach to constructing black ring coordinates and a critical review of black ring microscopics. (topical review)

  3. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  4. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  5. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  6. Redefining Death

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The results of 20 years of research on brain death will be released to the public, the Chinese Ministry of Health reported in early April. A special ministry team has drafted the criteria for brain death in Criteria for the Diagnosis of Brain Death in Adults (Revised Edition) and Technical Specifications for the Diagnosis

  7. Compensating Scientism through "The Black Hole."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Lane

    The focal image of the film "The Black Hole" functions as a visual metaphor for the sacred, order, unity, and eternal time. The black hole is a symbol that unites the antinomic pairs of conscious/unconscious, water/fire, immersion/emersion, death/rebirth, and hell/heaven. The black hole is further associated with the quest for…

  8. Black Films and Film-Makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Lindsay, Ed.

    The development of black films and the attitudes of the film industry toward black films and black actors are some of the topics examined in this anthology of essays. Section 1, "Nigger to Supernigger," contains such articles as "The Death of Rastus: Negroes in American Films" by Thomas R. Cripps and "Folk Values in a New Medium" by Alain Locke…

  9. Black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feast, M.W.

    1981-01-01

    This article deals with two questions, namely whether it is possible for black holes to exist, and if the answer is yes, whether we have found any yet. In deciding whether black holes can exist or not the central role in the shaping of our universe played by the forse of gravity is discussed, and in deciding whether we are likely to find black holes in the universe the author looks at the way stars evolve, as well as white dwarfs and neutron stars. He also discusses the problem how to detect a black hole, possible black holes, a southern black hole, massive black holes, as well as why black holes are studied

  10. Black Holes: A Selected Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraknoi, Andrew

    1991-01-01

    Offers a selected bibliography pertaining to black holes with the following categories: introductory books; introductory articles; somewhat more advanced articles; readings about Einstein's general theory of relativity; books on the death of stars; articles on the death of stars; specific articles about Supernova 1987A; relevant science fiction…

  11. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  12. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

    2015-05-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  14. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  15. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  16. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  17. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  18. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  19. Black Alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Thomas D.; Wright, Roosevelt

    1988-01-01

    Examines some aspects of the problem of alcoholism among Blacks, asserting that Black alcoholism can best be considered in an ecological, environmental, sociocultural, and public health context. Notes need for further research on alcoholism among Blacks and for action to reduce the problem of Black alcoholism. (NB)

  20. Black holes

    OpenAIRE

    Brügmann, B.; Ghez, A. M.; Greiner, J.

    2001-01-01

    Recent progress in black hole research is illustrated by three examples. We discuss the observational challenges that were met to show that a supermassive black hole exists at the center of our galaxy. Stellar-size black holes have been studied in x-ray binaries and microquasars. Finally, numerical simulations have become possible for the merger of black hole binaries.

  1. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  2. National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.

  3. Census Undercount and the Undercount of the Black Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Phung

    1996-01-01

    Argues that blacks have been disproportionately undercounted in the census and this undercount has resulted in such biased statistics as proportions of black female-headed households, victimization rates of black males, or crude death rates of blacks. Further, these statistics are biased upward and downward, and together they generate distorted…

  4. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  5. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  6. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  7. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  8. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  9. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  10. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  11. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  12. The yellow Fever epidemic in Western mali, september-november 1987: why did epidemiological surveillance fail?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, X

    1990-03-01

    Recent yellow fever epidemics in West Africa have underlined the discrepancy between the official number of cases and deaths and those estimated by a retrospective epidemiological investigation. During the yellow fever epidemic that broke out in western Mali in September 1987, a total of 305 cases and 145 deaths were officially notified, but estimates revealed true figures abut five times higher. This paper attempts to discuss the factors that hindered early case detection and more complete reporting. They were, first, the insufficient training on the clinical diagnosis, the blood sampling method for laboratory confirmation, and the curative treatment of patients (resulting in low utilization of services); second, the lack of an action plan to prepare in advance a quick response to the epidemic, affecting reporting procedures at the peripheral level and active case-finding during the outbreak; and third, the lack of laboratory facilities for a quick confirmation of the disease. The difficulties experienced during the yellow fever epidemic in Mali demonstrated the importance of a preparedness strategy for epidemic control, based on an integrated approach of epidemiological surveillance within basic health service activities. The need for regional collaboration and for institutionalized funds in the donor community that could be mobilized for epidemic preparedness activities is also emphasized.

  13. Black Tea

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... mental alertness as well as learning, memory, and information processing skills. It is also used for treating headache; ... of carbamazepine. Since black tea contains caffeine, in theory taking black tea with carbamazepine might decrease the ...

  14. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  15. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  16. Black Holes

    OpenAIRE

    Townsend, P. K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is concerned with several not-quantum aspects of black holes, with emphasis on theoretical and mathematical issues related to numerical modeling of black hole space-times. Part of the material has a review character, but some new results or proposals are also presented. We review the experimental evidence for existence of black holes. We propose a definition of black hole region for any theory governed by a symmetric hyperbolic system of equations. Our definition reproduces the usu...

  17. [Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

  18. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  19. Black Holes

    OpenAIRE

    Horowitz, Gary T.; Teukolsky, Saul A.

    1998-01-01

    Black holes are among the most intriguing objects in modern physics. Their influence ranges from powering quasars and other active galactic nuclei, to providing key insights into quantum gravity. We review the observational evidence for black holes, and briefly discuss some of their properties. We also describe some recent developments involving cosmic censorship and the statistical origin of black hole entropy.

  20. Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, G.Q.; Liu, Q.X.; Jin, Z.; Chakraborty, A.; Li, B.L.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in

  1. Environmental Remediation to Address Childhood Lead Poisoning Epidemic due to Artisanal Gold Mining in Zamfara, Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Tirima, Simba; Bartrem, Casey; von Lindern, Ian; von Braun, Margrit; Lind, Douglas; Anka, Shehu Mohammed; Abdullahi, Aishat

    2016-01-01

    Background: From 2010 through 2013, integrated health and environmental responses addressed an unprecedented epidemic lead poisoning in Zamfara State, northern Nigeria. Artisanal gold mining caused widespread contamination resulting in the deaths of > 400 children. Socioeconomic, logistic, and security challenges required remediation and medical protocols within the context of local resources, labor practices, and cultural traditions. Objectives: Our aim was to implement emergency environ...

  2. In a spin: the mysterious dancing epidemic of 1518.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, John C

    2008-09-01

    In 1518, one of the strangest epidemics in recorded history struck the city of Strasbourg. Hundreds of people were seized by an irresistible urge to dance, hop and leap into the air. In houses, halls and public spaces, as fear paralyzed the city and the members of the elite despaired, the dancing continued with mindless intensity. Seldom pausing to eat, drink or rest, many of them danced for days or even weeks. And before long, the chronicles agree, dozens were dying from exhaustion. What was it that could have impelled as many as 400 people to dance, in some cases to death?

  3. Surviving death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstroem, Anna

    2013-01-01

    such phases. The aim of this paper is to explore how an organization’s identity is re-constructed after organizational death. Based on interviews with members of a bankrupted bank who narrate their bankruptcy experiences, the paper explores how legacy organizational identity is constructed after...... organizational death. The paper shows how members draw on their legacy organizational identity to justify their past interpretations and responses to the intensifying bankruptcy threats. Members refer to their firm belief in the bank’s solid and robust identity claim when they explain how they disregarded...

  4. Death cap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudbæk, Torsten R; Kofoed, Pernille Bouteloup; Bove, Jeppe

    2014-01-01

    Death cap (Amanita phalloides) is commonly found and is one of the five most toxic fungi in Denmark. Toxicity is due to amatoxin, and poisoning is a serious medical condition, causing organ failure with potential fatal outcome. Acknowledgement and clarification of exposure, symptomatic and focused...

  5. "Spectacular Death"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Michael Hviid

    2016-01-01

    be labelled ‘spectacular death’ in which death, dying and mourning have increasingly become spectacles. Moreover, the author proposes that what is currently happening in contemporary Western society can be interpreted as an expression of a ‘partial re-reversal’ of ‘forbidden death’ to some...

  6. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  7. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  8. Black Culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Khristin Brown

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The migration of blacks in North America through slavery became united.  The population of blacks past downs a tradition of artist through art to native born citizens. The art tradition involved telling stories to each generation in black families. The black culture elevated by tradition created hope to determine their personal freedom to escape from poverty of enslavement and to establish a way of life through tradition. A way of personal freedoms was through getting a good education that lead to a better foundation and a better way of life.

  9. A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

    2016-11-01

    An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

  10. Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Sultan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

  11. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  12. Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabaan, Ali A

    2018-06-22

    Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

  13. Gender and leadership for health literacy to combat the epidemic rise of noncommunicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhanzva, Rufaro; Marara, Praise; Duxbury, Theodore; Bobbins, Amy Claire; Pearse, Noel; Hoel, Erik; Mzizi, Thandi; Srinivas, Sunitha C

    2017-08-01

    Until recently, the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic has been considered only a significant burden to men in high-income countries. However, latest figures indicate that half of all NCD-related deaths affect women, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global responses to the NCD epidemic overlooking the significance of women and girls in their approaches and programs. This case study highlights the burden of disease challenging South Africa that disproportionately affects women in the country and suggests that the country, along with other LMICs internationally, requires a shift in the gender-based leadership of health literacy and self-empowerment.

  14. Cancer Differences in the Black and Caucasian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jack E.

    1977-01-01

    Cancer mortality in U.S. blacks has greatly increased since 1950. This greater increase for blacks was found in 28 of the 56 most frequent cancers. Greater exposure to environmental carcinogens appears to be the main cause. This author recommends a thorough epidemiologic study of the rise in black cancer deaths. (Author/GC)

  15. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  16. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  18. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  19. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  20. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  1. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  2. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  3. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  4. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  5. An Introduction to the Black Sea Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    genus related to the Black Sea Cystoseira) are transported away from the Gulf of Mexico by the Gulf Stream to the northeast and are retained by the...social and economic consequences are not less harmful. It is enough to name the cases of epidemics of cholera and other gastrointestinal infections...seawater, are also found Salmonella, cholera’s vibrios , helmint’s eggs, viruses and other pathogenic organisms which are usually common in insufficiently

  6. Russia is on brink of AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, M

    1996-08-03

    Russia, and in particular Moscow, is on the brink of an AIDS epidemic, the president of the Russian Medical Academy told doctors gathered in Moscow for a national AIDS seminar. Although Russia has officially registered only 1269 cases of HIV infection, a quarter of them in Moscow, and 193 deaths since the first case appeared in Russia in 1987, health officials are alarmed by the recent rise in the rate of infection. In 1995, 200 new cases were registered, but 205 cases had already been registered in the first 6 months of 1996. The rapid spread of intravenous drug use is the main factor contributing to the rise in HIV infection. According to the head of the Russian AIDS Center, the real number of people infected with HIV in Russia is 3-4 times higher than official numbers, while AIDS activists believe that the real figure is 10-20 times higher. Russia has traditionally blamed its AIDS problem on foreigners and introduced an obligatory HIV test as a visa requirement for long-term visitors. Now neighboring Ukraine and Belarus are being blamed for the latest crisis. Of 1000 known intravenous drug users tested in Svetlogorsk, Belarus, 158 are HIV positive, with 20 results still outstanding. Previously, only 130 people in Belarus were known to be infected with HIV. In the Ukraine, where HIV testing has shown that over 5000 people are HIV positive and where a further 20,000 are estimated to be infected, a special subtype of HIV-1 has been discovered. In 1995 there were 1021 new cases of HIV infection, but in the first 4 months of this year there were 1805 new cases. Although the chief AIDS specialist at Russia's health ministry agrees that health education is more important than scare tactics against foreigners, in 1995 the health ministry received only 49% of the funds allocated for national AIDS education.

  7. Births and deaths including fetal deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Access to a variety of United States birth and death files including fetal deaths: Birth Files, 1968-2009; 1995-2005; Fetal death file, 1982-2005; Mortality files,...

  8. Gaborone is Growing like a Baby: Life Expectancies and Death ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the paradox of Botswana's twin reputations: first, successful national development and second, premature death from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. While locating these reputations in the capital city, Gaborone, the article analyzes reflections of people who are themselves the audience for, and participants in, ...

  9. Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, A K

    1994-01-01

    In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

  10. Premature death rates diverge in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    An NCI press release on a study that shows premature death rates have declined in the United States among Hispanics, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders but increased among whites and American Indian/Alaska Natives.

  11. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  12. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  13. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Munson

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer. As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality

  14. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  15. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Packer, Craig

    2008-06-25

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become

  16. Climate Extremes Promote Fatal Co-Infections during Canine Distemper Epidemics in African Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A.; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E.; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R. E.; Packer, Craig

    2008-01-01

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five “silent” CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may

  17. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  18. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  19. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  20. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  1. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  2. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  3. Using Our Voices, Losing Our Bodies: Michael Brown, Trayvon Martin, and the Spirit Murders of Black Male Professors in the Academy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Lamar; Bryan, Nathaniel

    2017-01-01

    The recent deaths of Michael Brown, Trayvon Martin, and other Black males have generated new civil rights urgencies in Black communities and spirited academic discourses in higher education regarding the educational and social plight of Black males in America. Connecting the deaths of Black males to our lived experiences in the academy, we use a…

  4. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  5. Sudden Oak Death - Eastern (Pest Alert)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph O' Brien; Manfred Mielke; Steve Oak; Bruce Moltzan

    2002-01-01

    A phenomenon known as Sudden Oak Death was first reported in 1995 in central coastal California. Since then, tens of thousands of tanoaks (Lithocarpus densiflorus), coast live oaks (Quercus agrifolia), and California black oaks (Quercus kelloggii) have been killed by a newly identified fungus, Phytophthora ramorum. On these hosts, the fungus causes a bleeding canker on...

  6. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  7. Seeding black holes in cosmological simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, P.; Kobayashi, C.

    2014-08-01

    We present a new model for the formation of black holes in cosmological simulations, motivated by the first star formation. Black holes form from high density peaks of primordial gas, and grow via both gas accretion and mergers. Massive black holes heat the surrounding material, suppressing star formation at the centres of galaxies, and driving galactic winds. We perform an investigation into the physical effects of the model parameters, and obtain a `best' set of these parameters by comparing the outcome of simulations to observations. With this best set, we successfully reproduce the cosmic star formation rate history, black hole mass-velocity dispersion relation, and the size-velocity dispersion relation of galaxies. The black hole seed mass is ˜103 M⊙, which is orders of magnitude smaller than that which has been used in previous cosmological simulations with active galactic nuclei, but suggests that the origin of the seed black holes is the death of Population III stars.

  8. The Crisis in Black and Black.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Earl Ofari

    These essays explore why the historic conflict between blacks and whites in the United States has become a crisis that divides many African Americans. The changing racial dynamic is not marked by conflicts. between the black middle class and the poor, black men and women, the black intellectual elite and rappers, black politicians and the urban…

  9. On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

  10. First Isolation of Dengue Virus from the 2010 Epidemic in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Basu D.; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P.; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R.; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M. N.; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

    2013-01-01

    Denguei is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologicallyconfirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These...

  11. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  12. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  13. Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

  14. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  15. Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Sharrow

    Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

  16. Racial Characteristics and the Imposition of the Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radelet, Michael L.

    1981-01-01

    Data from Florida from 1976-77 show that those accused of murdering Whites are more likely to be sentenced to death than those accused of murdering Blacks. If victim's race is controlled, however, data do not clearly support the hypothesis that defendant's race is strongly associated with imposition of the death penalty. (Author/GC)

  17. Counseling Blacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vontress, Clemmont E.

    1970-01-01

    Blacks have developed unique environmental perceptions, values, and attitudes, making it difficult for counselors to establish and maintain positive rapport. This article examines attitudinal ingredients posited by Carl Rogers for relevance to this problem, and suggests in-service training to help counselors and other professionals relate…

  18. Black Willow

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Krinard

    1980-01-01

    Black willow and other species of Salix together comprise a majority of the stocking. Cottonwood is the chief associate, particularly in the early stages, but green ash, sycamore, pecan, persimmon, waterlocust, American elm, baldcypress, red maple, sugarberry, box-elder, and in some areas, silver maple are invaders preceding the next successional stage.

  19. Black Psyllium

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... by mouth for up to 6 weeks reduces blood sugar in people with type 2 diabetes. Cancer. Diarrhea. Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Other conditions. ... with the dose. Diabetes: Black psyllium can lower blood sugar levels ... with type 2 diabetes by slowing down absorption of carbohydrates. Monitor blood ...

  20. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  1. Black esophagus: exploring the dark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Forster

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Black esophagus is a rare but underdiagnosed disease. It occurs most frequently in severely ill patients and carries a high mortality rate. Cause of death is usually attributed to the comorbid conditions. Treatment is directed at the underlying cause, acid suppression and keeping the patient nil-per-os. Surgery is needed in complicated cases and stenosis is the most feared longterm sequel. In the present article, two cases are described and literature is reviewed.

  2. Black hole astrophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, R.D.; Thorne, K.S.

    1979-01-01

    Following an introductory section, the subject is discussed under the headings: on the character of research in black hole astrophysics; isolated holes produced by collapse of normal stars; black holes in binary systems; black holes in globular clusters; black holes in quasars and active galactic nuclei; primordial black holes; concluding remarks on the present state of research in black hole astrophysics. (U.K.)

  3. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  4. Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

    2013-01-01

    We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

  5. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  6. The contribution of biological, mathematical, clinical, engineering and social sciences to combatting the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Christopher J M

    2017-05-26

    The tragic West African Ebola epidemic claimed many lives, but would have been worse still if scientific insights from many disciplines had not been integrated to create a strong technical response. Epidemiology and modelling triggered the international response and guided where response efforts were directed; virology, engineering and clinical science helped reduce deaths and transmission in and from hospitals and treatment centres; social sciences were key to reducing deaths from funerals and in the community; diagnostic and operational research made the response more efficient; immunology and vaccine research contributed to the final stages of the epidemic and will help prevent future epidemics. These varied scientific contributions had to be integrated into a combined narrative, communicated to policymakers to inform decisions, and used by courageous local and international responders in the field in real time. Not every area of science was optimal, and in particular, clinical trials of simple interventions such as fluid management were slow to be adopted and sharing of data was initially poor. This Ebola epidemic demonstrated how science can respond to a major emergency, but also has lessons for better responses in future infectious emergencies.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebaudet, Stanislas; Mengel, Martin A.; Koivogui, Lamine; Moore, Sandra; Mutreja, Ankur; Kande, Yacouba; Yattara, Ousmane; Sarr Keita, Véronique; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Garnotel, Eric; Keita, Sakoba; Piarroux, Renaud

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control

  8. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  9. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  10. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  11. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  12. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  13. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  14. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  15. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  16. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  17. Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

  18. Keeping the Community Posted: Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Blogs and the Tobacco Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joseph G L

    2014-06-01

    Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people are more likely to use tobacco products than heterosexual people. This results in disproportionate death and disability for LGBT communities. Yet, addressing the tobacco epidemic is generally low on the agenda of LGBT community organizations, and LGBT individuals report lower levels of support for some evidence-based tobacco prevention and control policies than heterosexuals. Informed by agenda-setting theory, this study investigated coverage of the tobacco epidemic in LGBT news blogs. Sixteen blogs and 105 tobacco-related posts from 2003 to March 9, 2013, were identified, and a quantitative content analysis was conducted. Coverage of the tobacco epidemic was primarily concentrated in four blogs and focused on the epidemiology of the epidemic and on tobacco-related policies. Little coverage focused on the tobacco industry, addiction, or health effects. A substantial minority of coverage focused on socially conservative arguments comparing smoking to homosexuality as a lifestyle choice. Thirty-three organizations working on LGBT tobacco prevention and control were present in blog posts. LGBT news blogs have a potentially important and mostly untapped role in tobacco-related media advocacy. LGBT health advocates would do well to cultivate relationships with LGBT bloggers as well as include bloggers in dissemination and media strategy efforts.

  19. First isolation of dengue virus from the 2010 epidemic in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Basu D; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M N; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

    2013-09-01

    Dengue is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologically-confirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These samples were subjected to routine laboratory investigations and IgM-capture ELISA for dengue serological identification, and 160 acute serum samples were used for virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results showed that affected patients were predominately adults, and that 10% of the cases were classified as dengue haemorrhagic fever/ dengue shock syndrome. The genetic characterization of dengue viruses isolated from patients in four major outbreak areas of Nepal suggests that the DENV-1 strain was responsible for the 2010 epidemic. Entomological studies identified Aedes aegypti in all epidemic areas. All viruses belonged to a monophyletic single clade which is phylogenetically close to Indian viruses. The dengue epidemic started in the lowlands and expanded to the highland areas. To our knowledge, this is the first dengue isolation and genetic characterization reported from Nepal.

  20. Incarcerating Death: Mortality in U.S. State Correctional Facilities, 1985–1998

    OpenAIRE

    PATTERSON, EVELYN J.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings ...

  1. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  2. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  3. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  4. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  5. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  6. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  7. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  8. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  9. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  10. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  11. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  12. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  13. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  14. Data Overview: Overview of an Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Terms Prescription Opioids Heroin Fentanyl Data Opioid Data Analysis Drug Overdose Death Data Prescribing Data U.S. Prescribing Rate ... from prescription opioids. 1 Learn More Opioid Data Analysis Drug Overdose Death Data Prescribing Data U.S. Prescribing Rate ...

  15. Contemporary Black Theatre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Pearl

    The distinguishable black theatre in America, mirroring a distinguishable black experience, is an artistic product which demands audience involvement. Both the Afro-American oral tradition and the art of gesture are integral aspects of black theatre. In addition, the tragedy found black theatre is not tragedy in the classic sense, as blacks feel…

  16. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  17. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  18. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  19. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  20. National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-02-01

    In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.  Created: 2/1/2012 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 2/1/2012.

  1. Black widow spider

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002858.htm Black widow spider To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. The black widow spider (Latrodectus) has a shiny black body with a ...

  2. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  3. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  4. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  5. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  6. QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Top Five Causes of Cancer Death,(†) by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity - United States, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-16

    In 2014, the top five causes of cancer deaths for the total population were lung, colorectal, female breast, pancreatic, and prostate cancer. The non-Hispanic black population had the highest age-adjusted death rates for each of these five cancers, followed by non-Hispanic white and Hispanic groups. The age-adjusted death rate for lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death in all groups, was 42.1 per 100,000 standard population for the total population, 45.4 for non-Hispanic white, 45.7 for non-Hispanic black, and 18.3 for Hispanic populations.

  7. The black Arab as a substitution for sin and guilt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Radmilo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The figure of the Black Arab as a form of guilt and sin is a well-established memorial pattern throughout the Mediterranean world, having already existed for more than 3000 years. This text is focused on two different types of interpretation of the Black Stone and its semantic relation with the symbolized figure of Black Arab in the oral traditions of Mediterranean peoples - Jewish religion and Islamic eschatology. The transformation of the signification of the Black Stone was transferred to the Islamic religion in the act of pilgrimage. The Jewish practice of transferring sin and guilt is related with the Iranian-Manichean Ahura Mazda-Ahriman, and the ancient Greek goddess Hecate. All manifestations of the Black Arab left a deep trace on Slavic spiritual life through the Slavic gods Chernobog, Triglav and Toyan and consequently on the deeply rooted conception of all Slavic peoples that the Black Arab was a black demon of death and the underworld.

  8. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  9. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  10. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  11. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  12. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  13. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  14. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  15. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  16. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  17. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  18. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  19. Black Urine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahim Vakili

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A 2-year-old boy was born at term of healthy, non-consanguineous Iranian parents. His mother attended in the clinic with the history of sometimes discoloration of diapers after passing urine. She noticed that first at the age of one month with intensified in recent months. His Physical examination and growth parameters were normal. His mother denied taking any medication (sorbitol, nitrofurantoin, metronidazole, methocarbamol, sena and methyldopa (5. Qualitative urine examination showed dark black discoloration. By this history, alkaptonuria was the most clinical suspicious. A 24-hour-urine sample was collected and sent for quantitative measurements. The urine sample was highly positive for homogentisic acid and negative for porphyrin metabolites.

  20. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  1. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  2. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  3. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  4. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  6. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  7. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  8. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  10. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  12. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  13. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  14. National Death Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Death Index (NDI) is a centralized database of death record information on file in state vital statistics offices. Working with these state offices, the...

  15. God's dominion over death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulling, Sharon

    2012-01-01

    This article briefly overviews the criteria for and physiological process of death, contrasting physical death with biblical passages revealing how God interceded in this universal process when Jesus was on earth.

  16. Identity after Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstrøm, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore how legacy organizational identity and death relate to each other and, thereby, contribute to closing the gap in knowledge on organizational identity constructions in times of death. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory....../value: This paper addresses an apparent gap in the literature on identity and death; exploring identity narratives in a bankrupted bank, the paper considers constructions of legacy organizational identities in times of disruptive death....

  17. Internalized stigma and HIV status disclosure among HIV-positive black men who have sex with men

    OpenAIRE

    Overstreet, Nicole M.; Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Quinn, Diane M.

    2012-01-01

    Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) are severely affected by the HIV epidemic, yet research on the relationship between HIV stigma and status disclosure is relatively limited among this population. Within this epidemic, internalized HIV stigma, the extent to which people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) endorse the negative beliefs associated with HIV as true of themselves, can negatively shape interpersonal outcomes and have important implications for psychological and physical health. In a s...

  18. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  19. Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Curtis Andrew J

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Results Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level of investigation. Conclusion Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in

  20. Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Andrew J

    2008-08-22

    An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level) of investigation. Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in turn might mean traditional quarantine measures should be

  1. Sudden death victims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceelen, Manon; van der Werf, Christian; Hendrix, Anneke; Naujocks, Tatjana; Woonink, Frits; de Vries, Philip; van der Wal, Allard; Das, Kees

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to ascertain accordance between cause of death established by the forensic physician and autopsy results in young sudden death victims in the Netherlands. Sudden death victims aged 1-45 years examined by forensic physicians operating in the participating regions which also

  2. Death and Grief

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Death and Grief KidsHealth / For Teens / Death and Grief What's in this article? What Is ... the reaction we have in response to a death or loss. Grief can affect our body, mind, ...

  3. Incubation of Phytophthora ramorum-infested leaf debris in soil affects survival, sporulation capacity, and subsequent risk of epidemic development within nurseries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebba K. Peterson; Niklaus J. Grünwald; Jennifer L. Parke

    2017-01-01

    Soilborne inoculum (infested leaf debris which has become incorporated into the soil) may be an important contributor to the persistence of the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in recurrently positive nurseries. To initiate new epidemics, soilborne inoculum must not only be able to survive over time, but also be capable of producing...

  4. Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

    2017-01-01

    In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

  5. Black Silicon Solar Cells with Black Ribbons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Rasmus Schmidt; Tang, Peter Torben; Mizushima, Io

    2016-01-01

    We present the combination of mask-less reactive ion etch (RIE) texturing and blackened interconnecting ribbons as a method for obtaining all-black solar panels, while using conventional, front-contacted solar cells. Black silicon made by mask-less reactive ion etching has total, average...... in the range 15.7-16.3%. The KOH-textured reference cell had an efficiency of 17.9%. The combination of black Si and black interconnecting ribbons may result in aesthetic, all-black panels based on conventional, front-contacted silicon solar cells....... reflectance below 0.5% across a 156x156 mm2 silicon (Si) wafer. Black interconnecting ribbons were realized by oxidizing copper resulting in reflectance below 3% in the visible wavelength range. Screen-printed Si solar cells were realized on 156x156 mm2 black Si substrates with resulting efficiencies...

  6. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  8. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  9. Black holes. Chapter 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, R.

    1980-01-01

    Conditions for the formation of a black hole are considered, and the properties of black holes. The possibility of Cygnus X-1 as a black hole is discussed. Einstein's theory of general relativity in relation to the formation of black holes is discussed. (U.K.)

  10. Search for black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherepashchuk, Anatolii M

    2003-01-01

    Methods and results of searching for stellar mass black holes in binary systems and for supermassive black holes in galactic nuclei of different types are described. As of now (June 2002), a total of 100 black hole candidates are known. All the necessary conditions Einstein's General Relativity imposes on the observational properties of black holes are satisfied for candidate objects available, thus further assuring the existence of black holes in the Universe. Prospects for obtaining sufficient criteria for reliably distinguishing candidate black holes from real black holes are discussed. (reviews of topical problems)

  11. Eyelid closure at death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A D Macleod

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To observe the incidence of full or partial eyelid closure at death. Materials and Methods: The presence of ptosis was recorded in 100 consecutive hospice patient deaths. Results: Majority (63% of the patients died with their eyes fully closed, however, 37% had bilateral ptosis at death, with incomplete eye closure. In this study, central nervous system tumor involvement and/or acute hepatic encephalopathy appeared to be pre-mortem risk factors of bilateral ptosis at death. Conclusion: Organicity and not psychogenicity is, therefore, the likely etiology of failure of full eyelid closure at death.

  12. An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusing signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faria, Fernando P; Dickman, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ('signals') emitted by infected individuals. The signals decay as well as diffuse; since they are assumed to be produced in large numbers, the signal concentration is treated deterministically. The model, which includes four cellular states (susceptible, transformed, depleted, and removed), admits various interpretations: spread of an infection or infectious disease, or of damage in a tissue in which injured cells may themselves provoke further damage, and as a description of the so-called radiation-induced bystander effect, in which the signals are molecules capable of inducing cell damage and/or death in unirradiated cells. The model exhibits a continuous phase transition between spreading and nonspreading phases. We formulate two mean-field theory (MFT) descriptions of the model, one of which ignores correlations between the cellular state and the signal concentration, and another that treats such correlations in an approximate manner. Monte Carlo simulations of the spread of infection on the square lattice yield values for the critical exponents and the fractal dimension consistent with the dynamic percolation universality class

  13. Same Disease—different research strategies: Bananas and Black Sigatoka in Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cordoba, D.M.; Jansen, K.

    2014-01-01

    Fungal disease epidemics have the potential to bring about drastic innovations. However, in the case of the Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) fungus in bananas, producers and international traders are still awaiting a breakthrough in crop protection research. Using the cases of Brazil and

  14. Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

    2013-01-01

    Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

  15. In vitro sterilization technique on embryo of black Toraja rice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haring, F.; Riadi, M.; Rafiuddin; Sjahril, R.; Muchlis, A. R.

    2018-05-01

    Toraja black rice has a high anthocyanin content, a water-soluble pigments, with antioxidant activity. Toraja black rice has a variety of seeds colour in one panicles such as full black (the outside and inside the rice), medium black (the outside and slightly inside rice) and a little black (only the outside of rice). Embryo culture in vitro is one way to grow plants in sterile conditions. The presence of contamination and the death of the embryo require in vitro embryo culture. The sterilization technique is a very important first step to eliminate contamination and the death of embryos. This research aims to determine the right material composition for sterilization of black rice’s embryo. The experiment was done by growing black rice on half strength MS media with the treatment of three method of sterilization, i.e.: S1 (70% alcohol for 5 minutes, 3% and 2% Chlorox each for 10 minutes,), S2 (70% alcohol for 3 minutes, 2% Clorox for 10 minutes) and S3 (70% alcohol for 3 minutes and 1% Clorox for 15 minutes). The materials used are rice seedlings that have been cut in two and opened the pericarp of paddy grain, leaving a piece of rice that has a complete embryo. The best sterilization for Toraja black rice embryo culture was using the S3 composition. Best germination was seen on the seeds with full and medium black color.

  16. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  17. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  18. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  19. Optimal allocation of the limited oral cholera vaccine supply between endemic and epidemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Lessler, Justin

    2015-10-06

    The World Health Organization (WHO) recently established a global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to be preferentially used in epidemic response (reactive campaigns) with any vaccine remaining after 1 year allocated to endemic settings. Hence, the number of cholera cases or deaths prevented in an endemic setting represents the minimum utility of these doses, and the optimal risk-averse response to any reactive vaccination request (i.e. the minimax strategy) is one that allocates the remaining doses between the requested epidemic response and endemic use in order to ensure that at least this minimum utility is achieved. Using mathematical models, we find that the best minimax strategy is to allocate the majority of doses to reactive campaigns, unless the request came late in the targeted epidemic. As vaccine supplies dwindle, the case for reactive use of the remaining doses grows stronger. Our analysis provides a lower bound for the amount of OCV to keep in reserve when responding to any request. These results provide a strategic context for the fulfilment of requests to the stockpile, and define allocation strategies that minimize the number of OCV doses that are allocated to suboptimal situations. © 2015 The Authors.

  20. Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroz, Jorge Alexandre Harrison

    2016-01-01

    To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

  1. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  2. HIV/AIDS and pregnancy-related deaths in Blantyre, Malawi | Lema ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: HIV/AIDS epidemic is one of the major factors affecting women's health and impeding national efforts to improve it especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current evidence indicates that HIV/ AIDS is increasingly becoming a major cause or contributing factor to pregnancy-related deaths, almost overtaking the ...

  3. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  4. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  5. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  6. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  7. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  8. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  9. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  10. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  11. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  12. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  13. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  14. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  15. A Dancing Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Deirdre; Smith, Kenneth; Schnetter, Erik; Fiske, David; Laguna, Pablo; Pullin, Jorge

    2002-04-01

    Recently, stationary black holes have been successfully simulated for up to times of approximately 600-1000M, where M is the mass of the black hole. Considering that the expected burst of gravitational radiation from a binary black hole merger would last approximately 200-500M, black hole codes are approaching the point where simulations of mergers may be feasible. We will present two types of simulations of single black holes obtained with a code based on the Baumgarte-Shapiro-Shibata-Nakamura formulation of the Einstein evolution equations. One type of simulations addresses the stability properties of stationary black hole evolutions. The second type of simulations demonstrates the ability of our code to move a black hole through the computational domain. This is accomplished by shifting the stationary black hole solution to a coordinate system in which the location of the black hole is time dependent.

  16. From Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa to the Meningitis Vaccine Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguado, M Teresa; Jodar, Luis; Granoff, Dan; Rabinovich, Regina; Ceccarini, Costante; Perkin, Gordon W

    2015-11-15

    Polysaccharide vaccines had been used to control African meningitis epidemics for >30 years but with little or modest success, largely because of logistical problems in the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns that are begun after epidemics are under way. After the major group A meningococcal meningitis epidemics in 1996-1997 (250,000 cases and 25,000 deaths), African ministers of health declared the prevention of meningitis a high priority and asked the World Health Organization (WHO) for help in developing better immunization strategies to eliminate meningitis epidemics in Africa. WHO accepted the challenge and created a project called Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa (EVA) that served as an organizational framework for external consultants, PATH, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Consultations were initiated with major vaccine manufacturers. EVA commissioned a costing study/business plan for the development of new group A or A/C conjugate vaccines and explored the feasibility of developing these products as a public-private partnership. Representatives from African countries were consulted. They confirmed that the development of conjugate vaccines was a priority and provided information on preferred product characteristics. In parallel, a strategy for successful introduction was also anticipated and discussed. The expert consultations recommended that a group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine be developed and introduced into the African meningitis belt. The results of the costing study indicated that the "cost of goods" to develop a group A - containing conjugate vaccine in the United States would be in the range of US$0.35-$1.35 per dose, depending on composition (A vs A/C), number of doses/vials, and presentation. Following an invitation from BMGF, a proposal was submitted in the spring of 2001. In June 2001, BMGF awarded a grant of US$70 million to create the Meningitis

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

    2016-07-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Existential Concerns About Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2015-01-01

    psychology or Kübler-Ross’ theory about death stages. The complex concerns might be explained using Martin Heidegger’s phenomenological thinking. We aimed to illuminate dying patients´ existential concerns about the impending death through a descriptive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 17 cancer...... patients in Danish hospices. The main findings demonstrated how the patients faced the forthcoming death without being anxious of death but sorrowful about leaving life. Furthermore, patients expressed that they avoided thinking about death. However, some had reconstructed specific and positive ideas about...... afterlife and made accurate decisions for practical aspects of their death. The patients wished to focus on positive aspects in their daily life at hospice. It hereby seems important to have ongoing reflections and to include different theoretical perspectives when providing existential support to dying...

  19. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  20. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  1. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  2. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  3. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  4. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  5. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

  6. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  7. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  8. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  9. Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) Overview Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the unexplained death, usually during sleep, of a seemingly healthy baby ... year old. SIDS is sometimes known as crib death because the infants often die in their cribs. ...

  10. The epidemic of Athens, 430 - 426 BC

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998-01-01

    Jan 1, 1998 ... the Peloponnesian War, caused the death of the great statesman, Pericles ..... apparently became extinct, like the English 'Sweating. Sickness' (1485 ... The possible transmission of disease to birds and animals of prey could ...

  11. Three days in October of 1630: detailed examination of mortality during an early modern plague epidemic in Venice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ell, S R

    1989-01-01

    The epidemiology of medieval and early modern European plague remains highly controversial. It now seems likely that the epidemiology was not uniform throughout either the geographic or temporal boundaries of the plague in Western Europe. The Venetian plague of 1630 was extensively documented; day-by-day records were kept, and each mortality in the city was recorded in a set format. The days 23-25 October 1630, representing a period when mortality was beginning to increase sharply, are examined. In all, 1,163 deaths were recorded. They show a large preponderance of women; a mean age of 28, but a majority of cases clumped between ages 0 and 25 years; and an unequal sex ratio among children. Further, there was an identifiable smallpox epidemic raging simultaneously with plague, and more than one-quarter of all the deaths in this period of high mortality were clearly due to nonplague causes. Deaths due to wounds and associated with violence were prominent in one parish, which suggests that in times of plague the breakdown in the normal machinery of government, in everyday patterns of life, and possibly of mental well being resulted in an even more exaggerated death toll. These factors--violence, accidents, and other epidemics--have never been so definitively tied to a European plague epidemic. In addition, there are hints that plague has a marked proclivity to kill pregnant women--their deaths far outnumber those anticipated--and that plague was very localized at a given moment within Venice itself, even during times of peak mortality.

  12. Cholera in Thomas Mann's Death in Venice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rütten, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The article sets the cholera motif in Thomas Mann's famous novella Death in Venice against the historical context from which it partially originates. It is shown that this motif, while undoubtedly appropriated to serve Mann's own poetic ends, has a solid grounding in historical and autobiographical fact, thus blurring the boundaries between fact and fiction. The article illustrates the verifiable events of the outbreak of the Venetian cholera epidemic in May 1911, which Mann partly witnessed himself, during a holiday trip to Brioni and Venice, and partly heard and read about. It is established that Thomas Mann's account of the cholera in Venice in his novella is characterised by a rare and almost preternatural insightfulness into an otherwise murky affair that was marked by rumours, speculations and denials.

  13. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, L. van; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, C. van den; Verheij, R.; Vliet, H. van; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.; Pelt, W. van; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  14. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, van L.; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, van den C.; Verheij, R.; Vliet, van H.; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Pelt, van W.; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  15. Sudden oak death disease progression in oaks and tanoaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice A. McPherson; Sylvia R. Mori; David L. Wood; Andrew J. Storer; Pavel Svihra; N. Maggi Kelly; Richard B. Standiford

    2006-01-01

    In March 2000, we established twenty disease progression plots in Marin County to monitor the progress of sudden oak death symptoms in coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), California black oak (Q. kelloggii), and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) (McPherson and others 2005). Plots were located to encompass a...

  16. Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2015-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) i...

  17. Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2015-03-09

    We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of

  18. Selected Differences in the Life Chances of Black and White in the United States. Research Group One, Report No. 17.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Howard J.

    Tabular data presented in this report comprise: total and black population of the U.S. for every census period from 1790 to 1970, the 50 cities with the largest black population for 1970, an index of residential segregation for 1960, selected views of age and sex, life and death, the educational profile of white and black in 1970, family income…

  19. Black hole critical phenomena without black holes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    large values of Ф, black holes do form and for small values the scalar field ... on the near side of the ridge ultimately evolve to form black holes while those configu- ... The inset shows a bird's eye view looking down on the saddle point.

  20. The Black Studies Boondoggle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Richard A.

    1970-01-01

    Indicates tendencies dangerous to the basic purpose of Black Studies, and identifies four external challeges--imperialism, paternalism, nihilism, and materialism. An internal challenge is considered to be the use of European and Establishment constructs to analyze black reality. (DM)

  1. Black hole hair removal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Nabamita; Mandal, Ipsita; Sen, Ashoke

    2009-01-01

    Macroscopic entropy of an extremal black hole is expected to be determined completely by its near horizon geometry. Thus two black holes with identical near horizon geometries should have identical macroscopic entropy, and the expected equality between macroscopic and microscopic entropies will then imply that they have identical degeneracies of microstates. An apparent counterexample is provided by the 4D-5D lift relating BMPV black hole to a four dimensional black hole. The two black holes have identical near horizon geometries but different microscopic spectrum. We suggest that this discrepancy can be accounted for by black hole hair - degrees of freedom living outside the horizon and contributing to the degeneracies. We identify these degrees of freedom for both the four and the five dimensional black holes and show that after their contributions are removed from the microscopic degeneracies of the respective systems, the result for the four and five dimensional black holes match exactly.

  2. Programmed cell death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this conference to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on the role programmed cell death plays in normal development and homeostasis of many organisms. This volume contains abstracts of papers in the following areas: invertebrate development; immunology/neurology; bcl-2 family; biochemistry; programmed cell death in viruses; oncogenesis; vertebrate development; and diseases.

  3. BRAIN DEATH DIAGNOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calixto Machado

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Brain death (BD diagnosis should be established based on the following set of principles, i.e. excluding major confusing factors, identifying the cause of coma, determining irreversibility, and precisely testing brainstem reflexes at all levels of the brainstem. Nonetheless, most criteria for BD diagnosis do not mention that this is not the only way of diagnosing death. The Cuban Commission for the Determination of Death has emphasized the aforesaid three possible situations for diagnosing death: a outside intensive care environment (without life support physicians apply the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria; b in forensic medicine circumstances, physicians utilize cadaveric signs (they do not even need a stethoscope; c in the intensive care environment (with life support when cardiorespiratory arrest occurs physicians utilize the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria. This methodology of diagnosing death, based on finding any of the death signs, is not related to the concept that there are different types of death. The irreversible loss of cardio-circulatory and respiratory functions can only cause death when ischemia and anoxia are prolonged enough to produce an irreversible destruction of the brain. The sign of irreversible loss of brain functions, that is to say BD diagnosis, is fully reviewed.

  4. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  5. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  6. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  7. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  8. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  9. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  10. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  11. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  12. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  13. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  14. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  15. Sudden cardiac death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Parakh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden cardiac death is one of the most common cause of mortality worldwide. Despite significant advances in the medical science, there is little improvement in the sudden cardiac death related mortality. Coronary artery disease is the most common etiology behind sudden cardiac death, in the above 40 years population. Even in the apparently healthy population, there is a small percentage of patients dying from sudden cardiac death. Given the large denominator, this small percentage contributes to the largest burden of sudden cardiac death. Identification of this at risk group among the apparently healthy individual is a great challenge for the medical fraternity. This article looks into the causes and methods of preventing SCD and at some of the Indian data. Details of Brugada syndrome, Long QT syndrome, Genetics of SCD are discussed. Recent guidelines on many of these causes are summarised.

  16. Death with dignity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allmark, P.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a conception of death with dignity and to examine whether it is vulnerable to the sort of criticisms that have been made of other conceptions. In this conception "death" is taken to apply to the process of dying; "dignity" is taken to be something that attaches to people because of their personal qualities. In particular, someone lives with dignity if they live well (in accordance with reason, as Aristotle would see it). It follows that health care professionals cannot confer on patients either dignity or death with dignity. They can, however, attempt to ensure that the patient dies without indignity. Indignities are affronts to human dignity, and include such things as serious pain and the exclusion of patients from involvement in decisions about their lives and deaths. This fairly modest conception of death with dignity avoids the traps of being overly subjective or of viewing the sick and helpless as "undignified". PMID:12161582

  17. Noncommutative black holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez-DomInguez, J C [Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad de Guanajuato PO Box E-143, 37150 Leoen Gto. (Mexico); Obregon, O [Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad de Guanajuato PO Box E-143, 37150 Leoen Gto. (Mexico); RamIrez, C [Facultad de Ciencias FIsico Matematicas, Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, PO Box 1364, 72000 Puebla (Mexico); Sabido, M [Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad de Guanajuato PO Box E-143, 37150 Leoen Gto. (Mexico)

    2007-11-15

    We study noncommutative black holes, by using a diffeomorphism between the Schwarzschild black hole and the Kantowski-Sachs cosmological model, which is generalized to noncommutative minisuperspace. Through the use of the Feynman-Hibbs procedure we are able to study the thermodynamics of the black hole, in particular, we calculate Hawking's temperature and entropy for the 'noncommutative' Schwarzschild black hole.

  18. Black holes without firewalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Klaus; Lowe, David A.; Thorlacius, Larus

    2013-05-01

    The postulates of black hole complementarity do not imply a firewall for infalling observers at a black hole horizon. The dynamics of the stretched horizon, that scrambles and reemits information, determines whether infalling observers experience anything out of the ordinary when entering a large black hole. In particular, there is no firewall if the stretched horizon degrees of freedom retain information for a time of the order of the black hole scrambling time.

  19. Black holes are hot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibbons, G.

    1976-01-01

    Recent work, which has been investigating the use of the concept of entropy with respect to gravitating systems, black holes and the universe as a whole, is discussed. The resulting theory of black holes assigns a finite temperature to them -about 10 -7 K for ordinary black holes of stellar mass -which is in complete agreement with thermodynamical concepts. It is also shown that black holes must continuously emit particles just like ordinary bodies which have a certain temperature. (U.K.)

  20. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  1. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  2. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  3. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  4. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  5. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  6. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  7. Monopole Black Hole Skyrmions

    OpenAIRE

    Moss, Ian G; Shiiki, N; Winstanley, E

    2000-01-01

    Charged black hole solutions with pion hair are discussed. These can be\\ud used to study monopole black hole catalysis of proton decay.\\ud There also exist\\ud multi-black hole skyrmion solutions with BPS monopole behaviour.

  8. What is black hole?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. What is black hole? Possible end phase of a star: A star is a massive, luminous ball of plasma having continuous nuclear burning. Star exhausts nuclear fuel →. White Dwarf, Neutron Star, Black Hole. Black hole's gravitational field is so powerful that even ...

  9. Genocide and Black Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnette, Calvin H.

    1972-01-01

    Contends that the survival of black people is in serious jeopardy as is evidenced in contemporary discussions on the worldwide plight of black people, and that an exhaustive study of the problem in its many dimensions is seriously lacking; the moral and ethical issues of genocide require examination from a black perspective. (JW)

  10. Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

    2005-07-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

  11. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  12. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  13. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  14. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  15. Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

    2002-08-20

    Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

  16. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-07-01

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  18. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  19. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  20. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  1. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  3. The death of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart: an epidemiologic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegers, Richard H C; Weigl, Andreas; Steptoe, Andrew

    2009-08-18

    The early death of the composer Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart on 5 December 1791 has fascinated the world for more than 2 centuries. It has been suggested that his final illness was caused by poisoning, renal failure, Henoch-Schönlein purpura, trichinosis, and many other conditions. The official daily register of deaths in Mozart's Vienna was evaluated to provide an epidemiologic framework into which the observations of contemporary witnesses of his death can be integrated. All recorded deaths in Vienna during November and December 1791 and January 1792 were analyzed, together with the corresponding periods in 1790 to 1791 and 1792 to 1793. The deaths of 5011 adults (3442 men, 1569 women) were recorded over these periods. The mean ages of death were 45.5 years (SD, 18.5) for men and 54.5 years (SD, 19.9) for women. Tuberculosis and related conditions accounted for the highest number of deaths; cachexia and malnutrition ranked second, and edema was the third most common cause. According to eyewitness accounts, the hallmark of Mozart's final disease was severe edema. Deaths from edema were markedly increased among younger men in the weeks surrounding Mozart's death compared with the previous and following years. This minor epidemic may have originated in the military hospital. Our analysis is consistent with Mozart's last illness and death being due to a streptococcal infection leading to an acute nephritic syndrome caused by poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis. Scarlet fever, which represents the same underlying disease from an etiologic perspective, is a less likely possibility.

  4. How to Build a Supermassive Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanjek, Christopher

    2003-01-01

    NASA astronomer Kim Weaver has got that sinking feeling. You know, it's that unsettling notion you get when you sift through your X-ray data and, to your surprise, find mid-sized black holes sinking toward the center of a galaxy, where they merge with others to form a single supermassive black hole. Could such a thing be true? These would be the largest mergers since America On Line bought Time-Warner, and perhaps even more violent. The process would turn a starburst galaxy inside out, making it more like a quasar host galaxy. Using the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, Weaver saw a hint of this fantastic process in a relatively nearby starburst galaxy named NGC 253 in the constellation Sculptor. She noticed that starburst galaxies - those gems set aglow in a colorful life cycle of hyperactive star birth, death, and renewal - seem to have a higher concentration of mid-mass black holes compared to other galaxies.

  5. Black holes in binary stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijers, R.A.M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Introduction Distinguishing neutron stars and black holes Optical companions and dynamical masses X-ray signatures of the nature of a compact object Structure and evolution of black-hole binaries High-mass black-hole binaries Low-mass black-hole binaries Low-mass black holes Formation of black holes

  6. The opioid epidemic and national guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic noncancer pain: a perspective from different continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häuser, Winfried; Schug, Stephan; Furlan, Andrea D

    2017-05-01

    A marked rise in opioid prescriptions for patients with chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) with a parallel increase in opioid abuse/misuse, and resulting deaths was noted in the Unites states in the past decade (opioid epidemic). In response, the US Center of Diseases Control (CDC) developed a guideline for prescribing of opioids for patients with CNCP. To assess (1) if there is an opioid epidemic in Australia, Canada, and Germany (2) to compare Australian, Canadian, German, and Center of Diseases Control guidelines recommendations for long-term opioid therapy for CNCP. National evidence-based guidelines and PubMed were searched for recommendations for opioid prescriptions for CNCP. There are signs of an opioid epidemic in Australia and Canada, but not in Germany. Guidelines in all 4 countries provide similar recommendations: opioids are not the first-line therapy for patients with CNCP; regular clinical assessments of benefits and harms are necessary; excessive doses should be avoided (recommended morphine equivalent daily doses range from 50 to 200 mg/d); stopping rules should be followed. All guidelines do not recommend the use of opioids in chronic pain conditions without an established nociceptive or neuropathic cause such as fibromyalgia and primary headache. Implementation of opioid prescribing guidelines should ensure that physicians prescribe opioids only for appropriate indications in limited doses for selected patients and advice patients on their safe use. These measures could contribute to reduce prescription opioid misuse/abuse and deaths.

  7. Cholera in pregnant women: the 2012 epidemic at the reference center at the Donka National Hospital in Conakry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sako, F B; Traoré, F A; Camara, M K; Sylla, M; Bangoura, E F; Baldé, O

    2016-05-01

    Cholera is an epidemic diarrheal disease transmitted through the digestive tract; it can cause obstetric complications in pregnant women. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic aspects of cholera in pregnant women, as well as its course, during the 2012 epidemic in Conakry. This retrospective, descriptive studied examined the records of this epidemic over a 7-month period (from May 15 to December 15, 2012). Of 2,808 cholera patients at our hospital, 80 were pregnant, that is, 2.85%. Their mean age was 30 years [range: 15-45 years], 94% were from Conakry (94%), and 69% were in the third trimester of pregnancy. Choleriform diarrhea and vomiting were the main signs, found respectively in 100% and 95% of the women; dehydration was mild for 16%, moderate for 45%, and severe for 39%. Support consisted of rehydration, by plans A (16%), B (45%) or C (39%) and antibiotic treatment based on erythromycin (85%), doxycycline (14%), or azithromycin (1%). Other drugs that were used included phloroglucinol-trimethylphloroglucinol (Spasfon(®)) for 45%, acetaminophen for 65%, and iron/folic acid for 1% of cases. The major obstetric complications were 4 intrauterine deaths (5%), 2 cases of threatened abortion (2%), 1 preterm delivery (1%), and 1 maternal death. The cholera outbreak in 2012 affected a large number of pregnant women in Conakry, most during their third trimester. The classic clinical manifestations were associated with obstetric complications and maternal-fetal risks.

  8. Black hole levitron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arsiwalla, Xerxes D.; Verlinde, Erik P.

    2010-01-01

    We study the problem of spatially stabilizing four dimensional extremal black holes in background electric/magnetic fields. Whilst looking for stationary stable solutions describing black holes placed in external fields we find that taking a continuum limit of Denef et al.'s multicenter supersymmetric black hole solutions provides a supergravity description of such backgrounds within which a black hole can be trapped within a confined volume. This construction is realized by solving for a levitating black hole over a magnetic dipole base. We comment on how such a construction is akin to a mechanical levitron.

  9. Suicide on Death Row.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartaro, Christine; Lester, David

    2016-11-01

    Despite the level of supervision of inmates on death row, their suicide rate is higher than both the male prison population in the United States and the population of males over the age of 14 in free society. This study presents suicide data for death row inmates from 1978 through 2010. For the years 1978 through 2010, suicide rates on death row were higher than that for the general population of males over the age of 15 and for state prisons for all but 2 years. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Structured Discretion, Racial Bias, and the Death Penalty: The First Decade after "Furman" in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekland-Olson, Sheldon

    1988-01-01

    Analyzes data collected in Texas from the first decade of cases sentenced to death after the Furman v. Georgia decision in order to determine any tendency toward being race-linked or victim-based. Found that cases involving White victims more often precipitate the death penalty than those involving Black or Hispanic victims. (KO)

  11. 20 CFR 410.471 - Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death. 410.471 Section 410.471 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.471 Conclusion...

  12. CDC Vital Signs-Heroin Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.

  13. Surveillance for Violent Deaths - National Violent Death Reporting System, 17 States, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Bridget H; Fowler, Katherine A; Jack, Shane P D; Betz, Carter J; Blair, Janet M

    2016-08-19

    health problem or a crisis during the previous or upcoming 2 weeks. Homicide rates were higher among males and persons aged 15-44 years; rates were highest among non-Hispanic black males. Homicides primarily were precipitated by arguments and interpersonal conflicts, occurrence in conjunction with another crime, or were related to intimate partner violence (particularly for females). A known relationship between a homicide victim and a suspected perpetrator was most likely either that of an acquaintance or friend or an intimate partner. Legal intervention death rates were highest among males and persons aged 20-24 years and 30-34 years; rates were highest among non-Hispanic black males. Precipitating factors for the majority of legal intervention deaths were another crime, a mental health problem, or a recent crisis. Deaths of undetermined intent occurred at the highest rates among males and persons aged guide suicide prevention efforts at workplaces. The continued development and expansion of NVDRS to include all U.S. states, territories, and the District of Columbia are essential to public health efforts to reduce the impact of violence.

  14. Hitler's Death Camps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Paul

    1995-01-01

    Presents a high school lesson on Hitler's death camps and the widespread policy of brutality and oppression against European Jews. Includes student objectives, instructional procedures, and a chart listing the value of used clothing taken from the Jews. (CFR)

  15. Complications and Deaths - State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - state data. This data set includes state-level data for the hip/knee complication measure, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality...

  16. Eighth Amendment & Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortall, Joseph M.; Merrill, Denise W.

    1987-01-01

    Presents a lesson on capital punishment for juveniles based on three hypothetical cases. The goal of the lesson is to have students understand the complexities of decisions regarding the death penalty for juveniles. (JDH)

  17. Sudden Cardiac Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risgaard, Bjarke; Winkel, Bo Gregers; Jabbari, Reza

    2017-01-01

    Objectives This study sought to describe the use of pharmacotherapy in a nationwide cohort of young patients with sudden cardiac death (SCD). Background Several drugs have been associated with an increased risk of SCD and sudden arrhythmic death syndrome (SADS). It remains unclear how...... pharmacotherapy may contribute to the overall burden of SCD in the general population. Methods This was a nationwide study that included all deaths that occurred between 2000 and 2009 and between 2007 and 2009 in people age 1 to 35 years and 36 to 49 years, respectively. Two physicians identified all SCDs through...... review of death certificates. Autopsy reports were collected. Pharmacotherapy prescribed within 90 days before SCD was identified in the Danish Registry of Medicinal Product Statistics. Results We identified 1,363 SCDs; median age was 38 years (interquartile range: 29 to 45 years), and 72% (n = 975) were men...

  18. Complications and Deaths - State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - state data. This data set includes state-level data for the hip/knee complication measure, the CMS Patient Safety Indicators, and 30-day...

  19. Orchestrating an Exceptional Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anja Marie Bornø

    processes of facing brain death and deciding about organ donation. This study suggests that organ donation should be understood as a ‘strange figure’ challenging traditions and attitudes regarding the boundaries between life and death and the practices surrounding dead human bodies. Simultaneously, organ...... donation can be comforting and furthermore enable some families to make sense of a sudden tragic death. Throughout the thesis, the concept of ‘orchestration’ serves as the overall theoretical framework to understand how families, hospital staff and, on a larger scale, Danish society attempt to perform......, reinterpret and translate death and organ donation into something culturally acceptable and sense making. With chapters focusing analytically on the performance of trust, the transformative practices of hope, the aesthetization of ambiguous bodies, the sociality of exchangeable organs and the organ donation...

  20. Existential concerns about death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene

    2014-01-01

    Background Research suggests that addressing dying patients’ existential concerns can help improve their quality of life. Common existential conditions, such as a search for meaning and considerations about faith, are probably intensified in a palliative setting and existential concerns about death...... are likewise intensified when patients face their impending death. Knowledge of modern, secular existential concerns about death is under-researched, and therefore, it is difficult to develop and implement specifically targeted support to dying patients. Aim The aim of this paper is to present the results from...... a qualitative field study illuminating the variety of dying patients´ existential concerns about their impending death. Method Data was generated through ethnographic fieldwork comprising 17 semi-structured interviews with dying patients and 38 days of participant observation at three Danish hospices. Results...

  1. Life not death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milner, George R.; Boldsen, Jesper L.

    2017-01-01

    Analytically sophisticated paleoepidemiology is a relatively new development in the characterization of past life experiences. It is based on sound paleopathological observations, accurate age-at-death estimates, an explicit engagement with the nature of mortality samples, and analytical procedures...

  2. Complications and Deaths - Hospital

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - provider data. This data set includes provider data for the hip/knee complication measure, CMS Patient Safety Indicators of serious...

  3. Complications and Deaths - National

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - national data. This data set includes national-level data for the hip/knee complication measure, the CMS Patient Safety Indicators, and...

  4. Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollet, A. J.

    1992-01-01

    The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored. PMID:1285449

  5. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  6. Medical and Indirect Costs Associated with a Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Epidemic in Arizona, 2002-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, Naomi A; Traeger, Marc S; McQuiston, Jennifer H; Williams, Velda; Hamilton, Charlene; Regan, Joanna J

    2015-09-01

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an emerging public health issue on some American Indian reservations in Arizona. RMSF causes an acute febrile illness that, if untreated, can cause severe illness, permanent sequelae requiring lifelong medical support, and death. We describe costs associated with medical care, loss of productivity, and death among cases of RMSF on two American Indian reservations (estimated population 20,000) between 2002 and 2011. Acute medical costs totaled more than $1.3 million. This study further estimated $181,100 in acute productivity lost due to illness, and $11.6 million in lifetime productivity lost from premature death. Aggregate costs of RMSF cases in Arizona 2002-2011 amounted to $13.2 million. We believe this to be a significant underestimate of the cost of the epidemic, but it underlines the severity of the disease and need for a more comprehensive study. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  7. Medical and Indirect Costs Associated with a Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Epidemic in Arizona, 2002–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, Naomi A.; Traeger, Marc S.; McQuiston, Jennifer H.; Williams, Velda; Hamilton, Charlene; Regan, Joanna J.

    2015-01-01

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an emerging public health issue on some American Indian reservations in Arizona. RMSF causes an acute febrile illness that, if untreated, can cause severe illness, permanent sequelae requiring lifelong medical support, and death. We describe costs associated with medical care, loss of productivity, and death among cases of RMSF on two American Indian reservations (estimated population 20,000) between 2002 and 2011. Acute medical costs totaled more than $1.3 million. This study further estimated $181,100 in acute productivity lost due to illness, and $11.6 million in lifetime productivity lost from premature death. Aggregate costs of RMSF cases in Arizona 2002–2011 amounted to $13.2 million. We believe this to be a significant underestimate of the cost of the epidemic, but it underlines the severity of the disease and need for a more comprehensive study. PMID:26033020

  8. Differences in Poisoning Mortality in the United States, 2003–2007: Epidemiology of Poisoning Deaths Classified as Unintentional, Suicide or Homicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muazzam, Sana; Swahn, Monica H.; Alamgir, Hasanat; Nasrullah, Muazzam

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Poisoning, specifically unintentional poisoning, is a major public health problem in the United States (U.S.). Published literature that presents epidemiology of all forms of poisoning mortalities (i.e., unintentional, suicide, homicide) together is limited. This report presents data and summarizes the evidence on poisoning mortality by demographic and geographic characteristics to describe the burden of poisoning mortality and the differences among sub-populations in the U.S. for a 5-year period. Methods Using mortality data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, we presented the age-specific and age-adjusted unintentional and intentional (suicide, homicide) poisoning mortality rates by sex, age, race, and state of residence for the most recent years (2003–2007) of available data. Annual percentage changes in deaths and rates were calculated, and linear regression using natural log were used for time-trend analysis. Results There were 121,367 (rate=8.18 per 100,000) unintentional poisoning deaths. Overall, the unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased by 46.9%, from 6.7 per 100,000 in 2003 to 9.8 per100.000 in 2007, with the highest mortality rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=15.36), males (rate=11.02) and whites (rate=8.68). New Mexico (rate=18.2) had the highest rate. Unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased significantly among both sexes, and all racial groups except blacks (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). Among a total of 29,469 (rate=1.97) suicidal poisoning deaths, the rate increased by 9.9%, from 1.9 per 100,000 in 2003 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2007, with the highest rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=3.92), males (rate=2.20) and whites (rate=2.24). Nevada (rate=3.9) had the highest rate. Mortality rate increased significantly among females and whites only (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). There were 463 (rate=0.03) homicidal poisoning deaths and the

  9. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  10. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  11. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  12. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  13. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  14. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  15. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    make renouncement tantamount to betrayal. The mass psychogenic illness or psychiatric epidemic that occurs in the workplace offers an opportunity not only to study the elements of a biopsychosocial system, but also offers opportunities for medical anthropological studies that relate the causes and courses of specific episodes of MPI to the cultures of the individuals who develop symptoms and the cultures of the area in which the epidemic occurs.

  16. Primary black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novikov, I.; Polnarev, A.

    1981-01-01

    Proves are searched for of the formation of the so-called primary black holes at the very origin of the universe. The black holes would weigh less than 10 13 kg. The formation of a primary black hole is conditional on strong fluctuations of the gravitational field corresponding roughly to a half of the fluctuation maximally permissible by the general relativity theory. Only big fluctuations of the gravitational field can overcome the forces of the hot gas pressure and compress the originally expanding matter into a black hole. Low-mass black holes have a temperature exceeding that of the black holes formed from stars. A quantum process of particle formation, the so-called evaporation takes place in the strong gravitational field of a black hole. The lower the mass of the black hole, the shorter the evaporation time. The analyses of processes taking place during the evaporation of low-mass primary black holes show that only a very small proportion of the total mass of the matter in the universe could turn into primary black holes. (M.D.)

  17. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Infant Deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Infant Deaths (from Linked Birth / Infant Death Records) online databases on CDC WONDER provide counts and rates for deaths of children under 1 year...

  18. [Deaths in hotels].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risse, Manfred; Weilbächer, Nadine; Birngruber, Christoph; Verhoff, Marcel A

    2010-01-01

    There are no verified statistics about deaths occurring in hotels, and only a few cases have been described in the literature. A recent case induced us to conduct a systematic search for deaths in hotels in the autopsy reports of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Giessen for the period from 1968 to 2009. This search yielded 22 evaluable cases in which persons had been found dead or had died in hotels. Data evaluated in the study were sex and age of the deceased, reason for the stay in the hotel and cause of death. Among the deaths, 18 were males and 4 females and the average age was 41 and 40 years respectively. 6 of the male guests had died from a natural and 10 from a non-natural cause. In the remaining two cases, the cause of death could not be determined, but as there was no evidence that another party had been involved, the cases were not further investigated. Of the 4 female guests, 3 had died of a natural cause; in one case, the cause of death remained unclear even after morphological and toxicological investigations. Surprisingly, a third of the men were found to be temporarily living in hotels due to social circumstances. This was not true for any of the women. Our retrospective analysis is based on a comparatively small number of deaths in what were mostly hotels in small to medium-sized towns. Interestingly, the gender ratio of 18:4 for deceased men and women was significantly higher than the usual gender ratio of 2:1 found for forensic autopsies. To be able to draw further conclusions, a greater number of cases would have to be analysed, for example by recruiting additional case files from other institutes of legal medicine. This would also open up the option of investigating possible regional variations.

  19. "Iron-Clad" Evidence For Spinning Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-09-01

    competing explanations that do not require extreme gravitational effects, and provide the best look yet at the geometry of the space-time around a stellar black hole created by the death of a massive star." The orbit of a particle near a black hole depends on the curvature of space around the black hole, which also depends on how fast the black hole is spinning. A spinning black hole drags space around with it and allows atoms to orbit closer to the black hole than is possible for a non-spinning black hole. The latest Chandra data from Cygnus X-1, the first stellar-size black hole discovered, show that the gravitational effects on the signal from the iron atoms can only be due to relativistic effects, and that some of the atoms are no closer than 100 miles to the black hole. There was no evidence that the Cygnus X-1 black hole is spinning. The XMM-Newton data from the black hole, XTE J1650-500, show a very similar distribution of iron atom X-rays with one important exception. More low energy X-rays from iron atoms are observed, an indication that some X-rays are coming from deep in the gravitational well around the black hole, as close as 20 miles to the black hole event horizon. This black hole must be spinning rapidly. Chandra observations of a third stellar black hole, GX 339-4, have revealed that it is also spinning rapidly, and clouds of warm absorbing gas appear to be flowing away from the black hole at speeds of about three hundred thousand miles per hour. Such warm gas flows have been observed in the vicinity of supermassive black holes. Previous observations of some supermassive black holes by Japan's ASCA satellite, XMM-Newton and Chandra have indicated that they may also be rotating rapidly. The latest results presented by Miller indicate that the peculiar geometry of space around spinning stellar-mass black holes and supermassive black holes is remarkably similar. Stellar and supermassive black holes may be similar in other ways. Powerful jets of high

  20. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioos, S; Mallet, H-P; Leparc Goffart, I; Gauthier, V; Cardoso, T; Herida, M

    2014-07-01

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus (Aedes), similar to other arboviruses, first identified in Uganda in 1947. Few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika outbreak occurred in Yap, Micronesia, even though ZIKV activity had been reported in Africa and in Asia through virological surveillance and entomological studies. French Polynesia has recorded a large outbreak since October 2013. A great number of cases and some with neurological and autoimmune complications have been reported in a context of concurrent circulation of dengue viruses. The clinical presentation is a "dengue-like syndrome". Until the epidemic in French Polynesia, no severe ZIKV disease had been described so far. The diagnosis is confirmed by viral genome detection by genomic amplification (RT- PCR) and viral isolation. These two large outbreaks occurred in a previously unaffected area in less than a decade. They should raise awareness as to the potential for ZIKV to spread especially since this emergent disease is not well known and that some questions remain on potential reservoirs and transmission modes as well as on clinical presentations and complications. ZIKV has the potential to spread to new areas where the Aedes mosquito vector is present and could be a risk for Southern Europe. Strategies for the prevention and control of ZIKV disease should include the use of insect repellent and mosquito vector eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Diffusive epidemic process: theory and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maia, Daniel Souza; Dickman, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the one-dimensional diffusive epidemic process via mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, particles of two species (A and B) hop on a lattice and undergo reactions B → A and A+B → 2B; the total particle number is conserved. We formulate the model as a continuous-time Markov process described by a master equation. A phase transition between the (absorbing) B-free state and an active state is observed as the parameters (reaction and diffusion rates, and total particle density) are varied. Mean-field theory reveals a surprising, nonmonotonic dependence of the critical recovery rate on the diffusion rate of B particles. A computational realization of the process that is faithful to the transition rates defining the model is devised, allowing for direct comparison with theory. Using the quasi-stationary simulation method we determine the order parameter and the survival time in systems of up to 4000 sites. Due to strong finite-size effects, the results converge only for large system sizes. We find no evidence for a discontinuous transition. Our results are consistent with the existence of three distinct universality classes, depending on whether A particles diffusive more rapidly, less rapidly or at the same rate as B particles. We also perform quasi-stationary simulations of the triplet creation model, which yield results consistent with a discontinuous transition at high diffusion rates

  2. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  3. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  4. Do black lives matter in public health research and training?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molly Rosenberg

    Full Text Available To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans.In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans.Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9 was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10.Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans.

  5. Do black lives matter in public health research and training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Molly; Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Townes, Ashley; Bengtson, Angela M

    2017-01-01

    To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans. In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL) across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications) by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans. Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9) was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10). Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans.

  6. Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

  7. CDC Vital Signs-Heroin Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This podcast is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  8. Astrophysical black holes

    CERN Document Server

    Gorini, Vittorio; Moschella, Ugo; Treves, Aldo; Colpi, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Based on graduate school lectures in contemporary relativity and gravitational physics, this book gives a complete and unified picture of the present status of theoretical and observational properties of astrophysical black holes. The chapters are written by internationally recognized specialists. They cover general theoretical aspects of black hole astrophysics, the theory of accretion and ejection of gas and jets, stellar-sized black holes observed in the Milky Way, the formation and evolution of supermassive black holes in galactic centers and quasars as well as their influence on the dynamics in galactic nuclei. The final chapter addresses analytical relativity of black holes supporting theoretical understanding of the coalescence of black holes as well as being of great relevance in identifying gravitational wave signals. With its introductory chapters the book is aimed at advanced graduate and post-graduate students, but it will also be useful for specialists.

  9. Parent & Child Perceptions of Child Health after Sibling Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Rosa M; Brooten, Dorothy; Youngblut, JoAnne M

    Understanding children's health after a sibling's death and what factors may affect it is important for treatment and clinical care. This study compared children's and their parents' perceptions of children's health and identified relationships of children's age, gender, race/ethnicity, anxiety, and depression and sibling's cause of death to these perceptions at 2 and 4 months after sibling death. 64 children and 48 parents rated the child's health "now" and "now vs before" the sibling's death in an ICU or ER or at home shortly after withdrawal of life-prolonging technology. Children completed the Child Depression Inventory and Spence Children's Anxiety Scale. Sibling cause of death was collected from hospital records. At 2 and 4 months, 45% to 54% of mothers' and 53% to 84% of fathers' ratings of their child's health "now" were higher than their children's ratings. Child health ratings were lower for: children with greater depression; fathers whose children reported greater anxiety; mothers whose child died of a chronic condition. Children's ratings of their health "now vs before" their sibling's death did not differ significantly from mothers' or fathers' ratings at 2 or 4 months. Black fathers were more likely to rate the child's health better "now vs before" the death; there were no significant differences by child gender and cause of death in child's health "now vs before" the death. Children's responses to a sibling's death may not be visually apparent or become known by asking parents. Parents often perceive their children as healthier than children perceive themselves at 2 and 4 months after sibling death, so talking with children separately is important. Children's perceptions of their health may be influenced by depression, fathers' perceptions by children's anxiety, and mother's perceptions by the cause of sibling death.

  10. Nonlinear dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2017-01-01

    Avian influenza is a zoonotic disease caused by the transmission of the avian influenza A virus, such as H5N1 and H7N9, from birds to humans. The avian influenza A H5N1 virus has caused more than 500 human infections worldwide with nearly a 60% death rate since it was first reported in Hong Kong in 1997. The four outbreaks of the avian influenza A H7N9 in China from March 2013 to June 2016 have resulted in 580 human cases including 202 deaths with a death rate of nearly 35%. In this paper, we construct two avian influenza bird-to-human transmission models with different growth laws of the avian population, one with logistic growth and the other with Allee effect, and analyze their dynamical behavior. We obtain a threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza and investigate the local or global asymptotical stability of each equilibrium of these systems by using linear analysis technique or combining Liapunov function method and LaSalle's invariance principle, respectively. Moreover, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of periodic solutions in the avian influenza system with Allee effect of the avian population. Numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Life and death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, J W

    1983-03-01

    In contrast with the other lectures given in the course on humanics and bioethics at the UOEH, which address the questions of life and death from the standpoint of the physician or the philosopher, this lecture considers these issues as seen by the cancer patient who has had a close encounter with death. The attitudes of Americans concerning abortion, the use of life-support systems, "mercy killings", suicide and the use of cancer chemotherapy are discussed with particular emphasis on restraints imposed by the courts, the churches and the family systems. An attempt is made to contrast the American and Japanese attitudes on these questions but this is difficult because of different cultural and religious backgrounds. The author describes his own experiences as a cancer patient who has approached death very closely and the changes in his own attitude toward life which results from the encounter with death. He also talks about the joy of being alive and describes his own experience with receiving cancer chemotherapy, the resulting discomfort and inconveniences and his feelings about a "tolerable" existence. Finally, the author considers the question of the "quality of life" for the cancer patient who has a violent reaction to certain forms of chemotherapy. This is a dilemma for the patient and the doctor who must consider the choice between death and a miserable existence.

  12. Malnutrition related deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparre-Sørensen, Maja; Kristensen, Gustav N

    2016-10-01

    Studies have shown that malnutrition increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, the length of hospital stay, and costs in the elderly population. Approximately one third of all patients admitted to geriatric wards in Denmark are malnourished according to the Danish Geriatric database. The aim of this study is to describe and examine the sudden increase in deaths due to malnutrition in the elderly population in Denmark from 1999 and, similarly, the sudden decline in malnutrition related deaths in 2007. A descriptive epidemiologic study was performed. All Danes listed in the national death registry who died from malnutrition in the period from 1994 to 2012 are included. The number of deaths from malnutrition increased significantly during the period from 1999 to 2007, especially in the age group 70 years and over. Additionally, we document a surprising similarity between the development in excess mortality from malnutrition in the five Danish regions during the same period. During the period 1999-2007 malnutrition was the direct cause of 340 extra deaths, and probably ten times more registered under other diseases. This development in excess mortality runs parallel in all five Danish regions over time. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Concept of 'bad death'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Vučković

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Following previous research on the linguistic concept of а 'bad death' which lexical expression is the word family of the verb ginuti, I focus my attention in this paper on the relationship between language conceptualization of а 'bad death' and the representation of а 'bad death' in traditional and contemporary culture. Diachronically based language corpus makes possible to trace the changes of referential frame and use of verb ginuti and its derivatives. In the traditional culture а 'bad death' is marked in action code by irregular way of burial and beliefs in demons stemming from the 'impure dead'. In the paper I explore the degree of synonymy of the symbols of all three codes: verbal code, action code and code of beliefs. In the contemporary culture the lack of individual control and choice is considered to be the key element of the concept of a 'bad death'. This change of conceptual content manifests itself in the use of its lexical expressions.

  14. Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farag, Tamer H; Koplan, Jeffrey P; Breiman, Robert F; Madhi, Shabir A; Heaton, Penny M; Mundel, Trevor; Ordi, Jaume; Bassat, Quique; Menendez, Clara; Dowell, Scott F

    2017-07-01

    Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

  15. Ayanin diacetate-induced cell death is amplified by TRAIL in human leukemia cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marrero, Maria Teresa; Estevez, Sara; Negrin, Gledy; Quintana, Jose [Departamento de Bioquimica, Unidad Asociada al Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Plaza Dr. Pasteur s/n, 35016 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain); Lopez, Mariana; Perez, Francisco J.; Triana, Jorge [Departamento de Quimica, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Instituto Canario de Investigacion del Cancer, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain); Leon, Francisco [Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiologia, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Avda. Astrofisico F. Sanchez 3, 38206 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Estevez, Francisco, E-mail: festevez@dbbf.ulpgc.es [Departamento de Bioquimica, Unidad Asociada al Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Plaza Dr. Pasteur s/n, 35016 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2012-11-09

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Ayanin diacetate as apoptotic inducer in leukemia cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Cell death was prevented by caspase inhibitors and by the overexpression of Bcl-x{sub L}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The intrinsic and the extrinsic pathways are involved in the mechanism of action. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Death receptors are up-regulated and TRAIL enhances apoptotic cell death. -- Abstract: Here we demonstrate that the semi-synthetic flavonoid ayanin diacetate induces cell death selectively in leukemia cells without affecting the proliferation of normal lymphocytes. Incubation of human leukemia cells with ayanin diacetate induced G{sub 2}-M phase cell cycle arrest and apoptosis which was prevented by the non-specific caspase inhibitor z-VAD-fmk and reduced by the overexpression of Bcl-x{sub L}. Ayanin diacetate-induced cell death was found to be associated with: (i) loss of inner mitochondrial membrane potential, (ii) the release of cytochrome c, (iii) the activation of multiple caspases, (iv) cleavage of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase and (v) the up-regulation of death receptors for TRAIL, DR4 and DR5. Moreover, the combined treatment with ayanin diacetate and TRAIL amplified cell death, compared to single treatments. These results provide a basis for further exploring the potential applications of this combination for the treatment of cancer.

  16. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  17. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  18. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  19. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent's awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire

  20. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  1. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  2. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  3. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  4. History of the HIV epidemic and response in Swaziland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that self-stigma, multiple concurrent partnerships and short-term relationships, decision on condom use and ... This prevents MSM from seeking health services. To .... 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic.

  5. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  6. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2016-01-01

    with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states

  7. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  8. INTRODUCTION The global HIV epidemic continues to expand with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    maybe potentially dangerous in low resource settings.6. Women infected with ... The HIV epidemic in children parallels that among women on account of perinatal ... unknown.14, 15 Immune suppression resulting from general anaesthetics ...

  9. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  10. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

  11. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures ... It frames risk in the context of the dynamics governing sexuality, underlined ... MSM risk and practice, in these contexts, are consequently shaped by ...

  12. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  13. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  14. Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

    2015-05-01

    The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

  15. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  16. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  17. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  18. Vital Signs: Racial Disparities in Age-Specific Mortality Among Blacks or African Americans - United States, 1999-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Timothy J; Croft, Janet B; Liu, Yong; Lu, Hua; Eke, Paul I; Giles, Wayne H

    2017-05-05

    Although the overall life expectancy at birth has increased for both blacks and whites and the gap between these populations has narrowed, disparities in life expectancy and the leading causes of death for blacks compared with whites in the United States remain substantial. Understanding how factors that influence these disparities vary across the life span might enhance the targeting of appropriate interventions. Trends during 1999-2015 in mortality rates for the leading causes of death were examined by black and white race and age group. Multiple 2014 and 2015 national data sources were analyzed to compare blacks with whites in selected age groups by sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health behaviors, health-related quality of life indicators, use of health services, and chronic conditions. During 1999-2015, age-adjusted death rates decreased significantly in both populations, with rates declining more sharply among blacks for most leading causes of death. Thus, the disparity gap in all-cause mortality rates narrowed from 33% in 1999 to 16% in 2015. However, during 2015, blacks still had higher death rates than whites for all-cause mortality in all groups aged blacks in age groups deaths among blacks (especially cardiovascular disease and cancer and their risk factors) across the life span and create equal opportunities for health.

  19. Black branes as piezoelectrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, Jay; Gath, Jakob; Obers, Niels A

    2012-12-14

    We find a realization of linear electroelasticity theory in gravitational physics by uncovering a new response coefficient of charged black branes, exhibiting their piezoelectric behavior. Taking charged dilatonic black strings as an example and using the blackfold approach we measure their elastic and piezolectric moduli. We also use our results to draw predictions about the equilibrium condition of charged dilatonic black rings in dimensions higher than six.

  20. Accreting Black Holes

    OpenAIRE

    Begelman, Mitchell C.

    2014-01-01

    I outline the theory of accretion onto black holes, and its application to observed phenomena such as X-ray binaries, active galactic nuclei, tidal disruption events, and gamma-ray bursts. The dynamics as well as radiative signatures of black hole accretion depend on interactions between the relatively simple black-hole spacetime and complex radiation, plasma and magnetohydrodynamical processes in the surrounding gas. I will show how transient accretion processes could provide clues to these ...

  1. Nonextremal stringy black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, K.

    1997-01-01

    We construct a four-dimensional BPS saturated heterotic string solution from the Taub-NUT solution. It is a nonextremal black hole solution since its Euler number is nonzero. We evaluate its black hole entropy semiclassically. We discuss the relation between the black hole entropy and the degeneracy of string states. The entropy of our string solution can be understood as the microscopic entropy which counts the elementary string states without any complications. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  2. Naked black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, G.T.; Ross, S.F.

    1997-01-01

    It is shown that there are large static black holes for which all curvature invariants are small near the event horizon, yet any object which falls in experiences enormous tidal forces outside the horizon. These black holes are charged and near extremality, and exist in a wide class of theories including string theory. The implications for cosmic censorship and the black hole information puzzle are discussed. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  3. Black holes, white dwarfs and neutron stars: The physics of compact objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, S.L.; Teukolsky, S.A.

    1983-01-01

    The contents include: Star deaths and the formation of compact objects; White dwarfs; Rotation and magnetic fields; Cold equation of state above neutron drip; Pulsars; Accretion onto black holes; Supermassive stars and black holes; Appendices; and Indexes. This book discusses one aspect, compact objects, of astronomy and provides information of astrophysics or general relativity

  4. An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fenelon

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

  5. Disease epidemics: Lessons for resilience in an increasingly connected world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; DeWitte, S.N.; Kurth, M.H.; Linkov, I.

    2016-01-01

    In public health, the term resilience often refers to the personality traits that individuals possess which help them endure and recover from stressors. However, resilience as a system characteristic, especially in regards to complex social-ecological systems, can be informative for public health at scales larger than the individual. Acute shocks to systems occur against a background of existing conditions, which are crucial determinants of the eventual public health outcomes of those shocks, and in the context of complex dependencies among and between ecological and societal elements. Many components of a system's baseline condition are chronic public health concerns themselves and diminish the capacity of the system to perform in the face of acute shocks. The emerging field of resilience management is concerned with holistically assessing and improving a system's ability to prepare for and absorb disruption, and then recover and adapt across physical, information, environmental and social domains. Integrating resilience considerations into current risk- and evidence-based approaches to disease control and prevention1 can move public health efforts toward more proactive and comprehensive solutions for protecting and improving the health of communities. Here, we look to the case of the Black Death as an illustrative case of a dramatic transformation in human history, an acute shock to a system that was underlain by chronic social maladies, to derive lessons about resilience management for public health in contemporary systems.

  6. Cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau (2008): the importance of "place".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquero, Francisco J; Banga, Cunhate Na; Remartínez, Daniel; Palma, Pedro Pablo; Baron, Emanuel; Grais, Rebeca F

    2011-05-04

    As resources are limited when responding to cholera outbreaks, knowledge about where to orient interventions is crucial. We describe the cholera epidemic affecting Guinea-Bissau in 2008 focusing on the geographical spread in order to guide prevention and control activities. We conducted two studies: 1) a descriptive analysis of the cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau focusing on its geographical spread (country level and within the capital); and 2) a cross-sectional study to measure the prevalence of houses with at least one cholera case in the most affected neighbourhood of the capital (Bairro Bandim) to detect clustering of households with cases (cluster analysis). All cholera cases attending the cholera treatment centres in Guinea-Bissau who fulfilled a modified World Health Organization clinical case definition during the epidemic were included in the descriptive study. For the cluster analysis, a sample of houses was selected from a satellite photo (Google Earth™); 140 houses (and the four closest houses) were assessed from the 2,202 identified structures. We applied K-functions and Kernel smoothing to detect clustering. We confirmed the clustering using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. A total of 14,222 cases and 225 deaths were reported in the country (AR = 0.94%, CFR = 1.64%). The more affected regions were Biombo, Bijagos and Bissau (the capital). Bairro Bandim was the most affected neighborhood of the capital (AR = 4.0). We found at least one case in 22.7% of the houses (95%CI: 19.5-26.2) in this neighborhood. The cluster analysis identified two areas within Bairro Bandim at highest risk: a market and an intersection where runoff accumulates waste (p<0.001). Our analysis allowed for the identification of the most affected regions in Guinea-Bissau during the 2008 cholera outbreak, and the most affected areas within the capital. This information was essential for making decisions on where to reinforce treatment and to guide control and prevention

  7. Concern about the Expanding Prescription Drug Epidemic: A Survey of Licensed Prescribers and Dispensers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, R Eric; Reed, Nia; Carnes, Neal; Kooreman, Harold E

    2016-01-01

    Prescription drug misuse and abuse has reached epidemic levels in the U.S., and stands as a leading cause of death. As the primary gatekeepers to the medications contributing to this epidemic, it is critical to understand the views of licensed health care professionals. In this study, we examine health care professionals' concern regarding prescription drug abuse in their communities and the impact their concern has had on their prescribing and dispensing practices. An online survey of licensed health care providers. Conducted in Indiana. This study was a state-wide evaluation of Indiana's prescription drug monitoring program. The questionnaire asked respondents how concerned they were about prescription drug abuse in their community. Variation in the level of concern was examined using ordinary least squares regression and information about the respondents' demographic background and clinical experience. In addition, we used logistic regression to examine whether concern was associated with changing prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The majority of providers indicated they were "moderately" or "extremely concerned" about prescription drug abuse in their communities. The level of concern, however, varied significantly by profession, with pharmacists, physicians, nurse practitioners/physician assistants being more concerned than dentists. Additional analyses indicate that providers with higher levels of concern were those who also reported recently changing their prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The voluntary nature and geographical focus of the study limits the generalizability of the findings. Concern about prescription drug abuse is generally high across the major health care professions; however, a significant minority of providers, particularly among dentists, expressed little or no concern about the epidemic. Increasing health care providers' general level of concern about prescription drug abuse may be an effective public health tool for

  8. Cholera epidemics, war and disasters around Goma and Lake Kivu: an eight-year survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier Bompangue

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: During the last eight years, North and South Kivu, located in a lake area in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, have been the site of a major volcano eruption and of numerous complex emergencies with population displacements. These conditions have been suspected to favour emergence and spread of cholera epidemics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In order to assess the influence of these conditions on outbreaks, reports of cholera cases were collected weekly from each health district of North Kivu (4,667,699 inhabitants and South Kivu (4,670,121 inhabitants from 2000 through 2007. A geographic information system was established, and in each health district, the relationships between environmental variables and the number of cholera cases were assessed using regression techniques and time series analysis. We further checked for a link between complex emergencies and cholera outbreaks. Finally, we analysed data collected during an epidemiological survey that was implemented in Goma after Nyiragongo eruption. A total of 73,605 cases and 1,612 deaths of cholera were reported. Time series decomposition showed a greater number of cases during the rainy season in South Kivu but not in North Kivu. Spatial distribution of cholera cases exhibited a higher number of cases in health districts bordering lakes (Odds Ratio 7.0, Confidence Interval range 3.8-12.9. Four epidemic reactivations were observed in the 12-week periods following war events, but simulations indicate that the number of reactivations was not larger than that expected during any random selection of period with no war. Nyiragongo volcanic eruption was followed by a marked decrease of cholera incidence. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study points out the crucial role of some towns located in lakeside areas in the persistence of cholera in Kivu. Even if complex emergencies were not systematically followed by cholera epidemics, some of them enabled cholera spreading.

  9. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

    OpenAIRE

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  10. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  11. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Granell, Clara; Gomez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusiv...

  12. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  13. The Black Family as Educator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Joan

    The black family is the primary socializing agent of the black child and, thus, the primary educator. The culture of blacks in America, in which the child is steeped, is unique, complex and rich-the result of a convergence and fusion of African, American, and European influences. In its education of the black child, the black family must deal,…

  14. [Reflections on prehospitalisation deaths].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugenschmitt, Delphine; Allonneau, Alexandre; Cesareo, Éric; Gueugniaud, Pierre-Yves; Lefort, Hugues

    2017-12-01

    In the past, death was a family and community affair, but today it is institutional and entrusted to healthcare personnel. Thanks to a questionnaire on their feelings about prehospitalisation deaths, the experience and training needs for healthcare personnel at a mobile emergency and intensive care service were analysed. The majority of these professionals had been confronted with difficulties when faced with prehospitalisation deaths. There is little understanding of religious rites, even though this is an important point in dealing with the situation. There is a strong desire for training. The pedagogical support offered in response to the needs expressed was recognised as being useful and should be more widespread. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. Amphetamine derivative related deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lora-Tamayo, C; Tena, T; Rodríguez, A

    1997-02-28

    Amphetamine its methylendioxy (methylendioxyamphetamine methylenedioxymethylamphetamine, methylenedioxyethylamphetamine) and methoxy derivatives (p-methoxyamphetamine and p-methoxymethylamphetamine) are widely abused in Spanish society. We present here the results of a systematic study of all cases of deaths brought to the attention of the Madrid department of the Instituto Nacional de Toxicologia from 1993 to 1995 in which some of these drugs have been found in the cadaveric blood. The cases were divided into three categories: amphetamine and derivatives, amphetamines and alcohol, amphetamines and other drugs. Data on age, sex, clinical symptoms, morphological findings, circumstances of death, when known, and concentration of amphetamine derivatives, alcohol and other drugs in blood are given for each group. The information provided here may prove to be useful for the forensic interpretation of deaths which are directly or indirectly related to abuse of amphetamine derivatives.

  16. Competing causes of death: a death certificate study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.; Lautenbach, H.; Oei, Y. B.; Bijlsma, F.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite the widespread interest in competing causes of death, empirical information on interrelationships between causes of death is scarce. We have used death certificate information to estimate the prevalence of competing causes of death at the moment of dying from specific underlying

  17. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  18. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  19. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  20. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.