Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years - United States, 1968-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

2018-03-30

Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. 1968-2015. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968-2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968-2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases occurring during the 1970s and 1980s followed by small but steady

Famine, the Black Death, and health in fourteenth-century London

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Antoine, Daniel; Hillson, Simon

2004-01-01

In the first half of the fourteenth century two catastrophes struck the population of Europe: the Great Famine and the Black Death. The latter has been extensively studied, but much less is known about the biological effects of the Great Famine. A large assemblage of skeletal remains from one of the Black Death burial grounds, the Royal Mint cemetery in London, provides a unique opportunity to investigate these effects by analyzing the teeth of individuals who survived the famine but died dur...

Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years — United States, 1968–2015

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

2018-01-01

Problem/Condition Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. Period Covered 1968–2015. Description of System The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968–2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968–2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. Results From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases

Opioid prescriptions for pain and epidemic of overdose death: can the dramatic reduction in anesthesia mortality serve as an example?

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Kissin I

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Igor Kissin Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: The annual number of US deaths from prescription-opioid overdose quadrupled between 1999 and 2010 and in 2010 alone reached 16,651. Deaths from opioid overdose have now surpassed the historic death toll from another drug-related epidemic – anesthesia mortality. In 1954, Beecher and Todd published reliable data on anesthesia-related mortality in the US, estimating the annual number of deaths to be nearly 5,000. Presently anesthesia/anesthetics are reported as the underlying cause in approximately 34 deaths in the US annually. This spectacular decline in anesthesia-related mortality could serve as an example for attempts to curb the epidemic of opioid overdose death. The main reason that led to the dramatic decline in anesthesia-related mortality is the context in which anesthetics are used. It includes training of the anesthesia providers, the introduction of specific standards of patient safety, and anesthesia monitoring. I suggest that the introduction of a similar multifactorial proper context for the use of opioids in the treatment of chronic nonmalignant pain might be the same “game changer” it was for safety in anesthesia. Keywords: chronic pain, addiction, opioid-use disorder, treatment compliance, apprenticeship, metrics of opioid effectiveness, aberrant opioid-related behavior

Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

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Tomashek, Kay M.; Gregory, Christopher J.; Rivera Sánchez, Aidsa; Bartek, Matthew A.; Garcia Rivera, Enid J.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Sun, Wellington

2012-01-01

Background The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care. Methods Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death. Results Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances. Conclusions During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring. PMID:22530072

An epidemic of illicit fentanyl deaths in Cook County, Illinois: September 2005 through April 2007.

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Denton, J Scott; Donoghue, Edmund R; McReynolds, Jennifer; Kalelkar, Mitra B

2008-03-01

Between September 2005 and April 2007, 350 fentanyl intoxication deaths were investigated and certified by the Cook County Medical Examiners Office. Investigations revealed that the majority of these fatalities were by intravenous injection of a white powder followed by a rapid collapse. The fentanyl was clandestinely produced in a lab in Toluca, Mexico and sold by the Mickey Cobra street gang. The term "Drop Dead" was coined for this "tainted heroin." Postmortem samples were screened by ELISA and confirmed by standard GC-MS methods. Fentanyl fatalities peaked at 47 per month in May and June 2006. Fifty-two percent were single fentanyl intoxications, with the remainder accompanied by either cocaine, morphine from heroin, or alcohol. This epidemic stressed the limited resources of the toxicology laboratory and autopsy service of the Medical Examiners Office. The clandestine lab was terminated, distributing gang members and leaders arrested, and the epidemic ceased in April 2007.

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

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Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

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Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

2015-01-01

urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved. PMID:26625117

IARS mutation causes prenatal death in Japanese Black cattle.

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Hirano, Takashi; Matsuhashi, Tamako; Takeda, Kenji; Hara, Hiromi; Kobayashi, Naohiko; Kita, Kazuo; Sugimoto, Yoshikazu; Hanzawa, Kei

2016-09-01

Isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase (IARS) c.235G > C (p.V79L) is a causative mutation for a recessive disease called IARS disorder in Japanese black cattle. The disease is involved in weak calf syndrome and is characterized by low birth weight, weakness and poor suckling. The gestation period is often slightly extended, implying that intrauterine growth is retarded. In a previous analysis of 2597 artificial insemination (AI) procedures, we suggested that the IARS mutation might contribute toward an increase in the incidence of prenatal death. In this study, we extended this analysis to better clarify the association between the IARS mutation and prenatal death. The IARS genotypes of 92 animals resulting from crosses between carrier (G/C) × G/C were 27 normal (G/G), 55 G/C and 10 affected animals (C/C) (expected numbers: 23, 46 and 23, respectively). Compared to the expected numbers, there were significantly fewer affected animals in this population (P causes calf death, but also embryonic or fetal death. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

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Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

2015-11-01

Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life

Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

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Dih-Ling Luh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

Suicides, homicides, accidents, and other external causes of death among blacks and whites in the Southern Community Cohort Study.

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Sonderman, Jennifer S; Munro, Heather M; Blot, William J; Tarone, Robert E; McLaughlin, Joseph K

2014-01-01

Prior studies of risk factors associated with external causes of death have been limited in the number of covariates investigated and external causes examined. Herein, associations between numerous demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors and the major causes of external mortality, such as suicide, homicide, and accident, were assessed prospectively among 73,422 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated in multivariate regression analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Men compared with women (HR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.87-2.89), current smokers (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40-2.17), and unemployed/never employed participants at the time of enrollment (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.02) had increased risk of dying from all external causes, with similarly elevated HRs for suicide, homicide, and accidental death among both blacks and whites. Blacks compared with whites had lower risk of accidental death (HR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.38-0.57) and suicide (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.31-0.99). Blacks and whites in the SCCS had comparable risks of homicide death (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.76); however, whites in the SCCS had unusually high homicide rates compared with all whites who were resident in the 12 SCCS states, while black SCCS participants had homicide rates similar to those of all blacks residing in the SCCS states. Depression was the strongest risk factor for suicide, while being married was protective against death from homicide in both races. Being overweight/obese at enrollment was associated with reduced risks in all external causes of death, and the number of comorbid conditions was a risk factor for iatrogenic deaths. Most risk factors identified in earlier studies of external causes of death were confirmed in the SCCS cohort, in spite of the low SES of SCCS participants. Results from other epidemiologic cohorts are needed to confirm the novel findings identified

Suicides, homicides, accidents, and other external causes of death among blacks and whites in the Southern Community Cohort Study.

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Jennifer S Sonderman

Full Text Available Prior studies of risk factors associated with external causes of death have been limited in the number of covariates investigated and external causes examined. Herein, associations between numerous demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors and the major causes of external mortality, such as suicide, homicide, and accident, were assessed prospectively among 73,422 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated in multivariate regression analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Men compared with women (HR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.87-2.89, current smokers (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40-2.17, and unemployed/never employed participants at the time of enrollment (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.02 had increased risk of dying from all external causes, with similarly elevated HRs for suicide, homicide, and accidental death among both blacks and whites. Blacks compared with whites had lower risk of accidental death (HR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.38-0.57 and suicide (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.31-0.99. Blacks and whites in the SCCS had comparable risks of homicide death (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.76; however, whites in the SCCS had unusually high homicide rates compared with all whites who were resident in the 12 SCCS states, while black SCCS participants had homicide rates similar to those of all blacks residing in the SCCS states. Depression was the strongest risk factor for suicide, while being married was protective against death from homicide in both races. Being overweight/obese at enrollment was associated with reduced risks in all external causes of death, and the number of comorbid conditions was a risk factor for iatrogenic deaths. Most risk factors identified in earlier studies of external causes of death were confirmed in the SCCS cohort, in spite of the low SES of SCCS participants. Results from other epidemiologic cohorts are needed to confirm the novel findings

Banting Memorial Lecture 2010^. Type 2 diabetes as an 'infectious' disease: is this the Black Death of the 21st century?

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Matthews, D R; Matthews, P C

2011-01-01

We are currently facing a global pandemic of obesity and Type 2 diabetes. In some settings, the population prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is 50%, and half of those affected will die from diabetes-related complications. Eight centuries ago, an epidemic of bubonic plague swept across Europe, killing at least half of its victims. We here draw comparisons between these two pandemics, proposing close analogies between the 'Black Death' of the 14th century and the modern-day equivalent of Type 2 diabetes. Both diseases can be considered in terms of an aetiological agent, a reservoir, a vector and a predisposing toxic environment; populations can be considered as highly susceptible to the transmissable agents of Type 2 diabetes in the setting of calorie excess, inadequate food labelling, poorly regulated advertising and sedentary lifestyles. As for tackling a pandemic of a contagious microbial pathogen, we believe that breaking the cycle of transmission in the diabetes epidemic must be underpinned by political will and prompt, decisive legislation backed by the medical community. Far from fearing that such measures edge us towards a 'nanny state', we believe individuals should expect a responsible government to safeguard them from the toxic milieu that puts them at risk of obesity and its complications, and that communities and populations have the right to have their health protected. © 2010 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2010 Diabetes UK.

[Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

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Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

2011-10-01

To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

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Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

[Cutaneous melanoma - "black death" of modern times? Traces in contemporary literature].

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Bahmer, F A; Bahmer, J A

2013-11-01

Cutaneous melanoma, sometimes labeled as "black skin cancer", is increasing in frequency and becoming a more common literary motive. In US literature, Sylvia Plath and Charles Bukowski depicted melanoma more than 50 years ago, later Stephen King and Thomas C. Boyle. In German literature, Charlotte Roche shortly mentioned this tumor. Jörg Pönnighaus, both poet and dermatologist, intensively deals in his poems with the effects melanoma has on patients and doctors alike. Melanoma definitely is not the "Black Death" of modern times. However, the perception of this tumor as extremely malignant and as life-threatening makes melanoma a metaphor of the deadly danger of cancer.

Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

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Bossak, Brian H; Welford, Mark R

2009-06-01

Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available

Coping with Catastrophe: The Black Death of the 14th Century. A Unit of Study for Grades 7-12.

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Chapman, Anne

This unit of study explains the causes, course, characteristics, and results of the Black Death during the 14th century. The Black Death, also known as the bubonic plague, left virtually no one untouched in Europe, Asia, and Northern Africa. Europe lost a third or more of its population. In a broader context, study of the unit alerts students to…

Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

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Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

2012-01-01

At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

Possibility of death sentence has divergent effect on verdicts for Black and White defendants.

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Glaser, Jack; Martin, Karin D; Kahn, Kimberly B

2015-12-01

When anticipating the imposition of the death penalty, jurors may be less inclined to convict defendants. On the other hand, minority defendants have been shown to be treated more punitively, particularly in capital cases. Given that the influence of anticipated sentence severity on verdicts may vary as a function of defendant race, the goal of this study was to test the independent and interactive effects of these factors. We conducted a survey-embedded experiment with a nationally representative sample to examine the effect on verdicts of sentence severity as a function of defendant race, presenting respondents with a triple murder trial summary that manipulated the maximum penalty (death vs. life without parole) and the race of the defendant. Respondents who were told life-without-parole was the maximum sentence were not significantly more likely to convict Black (67.7%) than White (66.7%) defendants. However, when death was the maximum sentence, respondents presented with Black defendants were significantly more likely to convict (80.0%) than were those with White defendants (55.1%). The results indicate that the death penalty may be a cause of racial disparities in criminal justice, and implicate threats to civil rights and to effective criminal justice. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The HIV epidemic in Greenland - a slow spreading infection among adult heterosexual Greenlanders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørn-Mortensen, Karen; Ladefoged, Karin; Obel, Niels

2013-01-01

We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths.......We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths....

Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

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Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

2014-02-15

Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

Science You Can Use Bulletin: From death comes life: Recovery and revolution in the wake of epidemic outbreaks of mountain pine beetle

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Karl Malcolm; Chuck Rhoades; Michael Battaglia; Paula Fornwalt; Rob Hubbard; Kelly Elder; Byron Collins

2012-01-01

Changing climatic conditions and an abundance of dense, mature pine forests have helped to spur an epidemic of mountain pine beetles larger than any in recorded history. Millions of forested acres have been heavily impacted and have experienced extreme rates of tree mortality. This has raised concerns among many people that the death, desiccation, and decomposition of...

"To look at death another way": Black teenage males' perspectives on second-lines and regular funerals in New Orleans.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordere, Tashel C

The purpose of this study was to describe how Black adolescent males understand "second-line" (musical processions) and "regular"/traditional funeral rituals in New Orleans following the violent deaths of significant persons in their lives. In-depth interviews were conducted with 10 Black males between the ages of 12 and 15 using descriptive phenomenology methodology. Findings revealed that these participants understood death as a cause for celebration, remembrance, and unity related to their experiences with the second-line ritual. Three elements of the life world of Black teenage males were descriptive of second lines, including: a) observed locations of second lines; b) dancing to good music; and c) observed messages conveyed through t-shirts. Participants provided gender-based descriptions of perceived spoken and unspoken rights in grieving at the two distinct rituals. Related to their second-line experience, the teens reflect on ways in which they wish to have their deaths ritualized.

[MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

2009-01-01

It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

Ridiculed death and the dead: Black humor on the epitaphs and epigrams of the ancient Greece

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Stevanović Lađa

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Theories about black humor usually regard that it as a contemporary phenomenon and a culmination of the literary modernism and beginning of post-modernism. My intent in this paper is to refute the thesis that the black humor is a modern invention. I am going to prove its existence still in Greek antiquity, quoting and analyzing humorous epitaphs and black humor epigrams. Putting in relation black humor with the joy and humor in religious (fertility and funeral rituals, I am also going to set a question about the attitude to death and life inherent for this kind of humor, arguing that its origin should be searched in the folk tradition.

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

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Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

2014-11-21

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

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Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Baumann

Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

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David J Sharrow

Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

Unequal Burdens of Loss: Examining the Frequency and Timing of Homicide Deaths Experienced by Young Black Men Across the Life Course

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2015-01-01

Objectives. I examined the frequency and developmental timing of traumatic loss resulting from the health disparity of homicide among young Black men in Baltimore, Maryland. Methods. Using a modified grounded theory approach, I conducted in-depth semistructured interviews with 40 Black men (aged 18–24 years) from January 2012 to June 2013. I also constructed adapted life history calendar tools using chronologies of loss, and (1) provided a comprehensive history of loss, (2) determined a specific frequency of homicide deaths, (3) indicated participants’ relationship to the decedents, and (4) identified the developmental timing of deaths. Results. On average, participants knew 3 homicide victims who were overwhelmingly peers. Participant experiences of homicide death started in early childhood, peaked in adolescence, and persisted into emerging adulthood. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a significant developmental turning point and disrupted participants’ social networks. Conclusions. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a prevalent life course experience for young Black men and identified the need for trauma- and grief-informed interventions. Future research is needed to examine the physical and psychosocial consequences, coping resources and strategies, and developmental implications of traumatic loss for young Black men in urban contexts. PMID:25905836

The death of mourning: from Victorian crepe to the little black dress.

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Bedikian, Sonia A

2008-01-01

Mourning is a natural response to loss. In the late eighteenth century and throughout the nineteenth century, in England and France, the bereaved was expected to follow a complex set of rules, particularly among the upper classes, with women more bound to adhere to these customs than men. Such customs involved wearing heavy, concealing, black costume and the use of black crepe veils. Special black caps and bonnets were worn with these ensembles. Widows were expected to wear these clothes up to four years after their loss to show their grief. Jewelry often made of dark black jet or the hair of the deceased was used. To remove the costume earlier was thought disrespectful to the deceased. Formal mourning culminated during the reign of Queen Victoria. Her prolonged grief over the death of her husband, Prince Albert, had much to do with the practice. During the succeeding Edwardian rule, the fashions began to be more functional and less restrictive, but the dress protocol for men and women, including that for the period of mourning, was still rigidly adhered to. When World War I began, many women joined the workforce. Most widows attempted to maintain the traditional conventions of mourning, but with an increase in the number of casualties, it became impractical for them to interrupt their work in order to observe the seclusion called for by formal mourning etiquette. Never had the code of mourning been less strictly applied than during this period. The mourning outfits of the time were modest and made of practical materials. Little jewelry and few other accessories were used. Certain aspects of traditional mourning were still followed, such as the use of jet beading, crepe trim, and widows' caps. However, the hemlines fell above the ankle, the veil was used to frame the face instead of cover it, and the v-neckline left the chest and neck bare. During the following decades, gradually the rules were relaxed further and it became acceptable for both sexes to dress in

Exploring the Experience of Life Stress Among Black Women with a History of Fetal or Infant Death: a Phenomenological Study.

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Brown, Kyrah K; Lewis, Rhonda K; Baumgartner, Elizabeth; Schunn, Christy; Maryman, J'Vonnah; LoCurto, Jamie

2017-06-01

Disparate birth outcomes among Black women continue to be a major public health problem. Whereas prior research has investigated the influence of stress on Black women's birth outcomes, few studies have explored how stress is experienced among Black women across the life course. The objectives of this study were to describe the experience of stress across the life course among Black women who reported a history of fetal or infant death and to identify stressful life events (SLE) that may not be represented in the widely used SLE inventory. Using phenomenological, qualitative research design, in-depth interviews were conducted with six Black women in Kansas who experienced a fetal or infant death. Analyses revealed that participants experienced multiple, co-occurring stressors over the course of their lives and experienced a proliferation of stress emerging in early life and persisting into adulthood. Among the types of stressors cited by participants, history of sexual assault (trauma-related stressor) was a key stressful life event that is not currently reflected in the SLE inventory. Our findings highlight the importance of using a life-course perspective to gain a contextual understanding of the experiences of stress among Black women, particularly those with a history of adverse birth outcomes. Further research investigating Black women's experiences of stress and the mechanisms by which stress impacts their health could inform efforts to reduce disparities in birth outcomes. An additional focus on the experience and impact of trauma-related stress on Black women's birth outcomes may also be warranted.

Signatures of energy flux in particle production: a black hole birth cry and death gasp

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Good, Michael R.R. [Department of Physics, Nazarbayev University,53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave., Astana, Republic of (Kazakhstan); Ong, Yen Chin [Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm University,Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

2015-07-27

It is recently argued that if the Hawking radiation process is unitary, then a black hole’s mass cannot be monotonically decreasing. We examine the time dependent particle count and negative energy flux in the non-trivial conformal vacuum via the moving mirror approach. A new, exactly unitary solution is presented which emits a characteristic above-thermal positive energy burst, a thermal plateau, and negative energy flux. It is found that the characteristic positive energy flare and thermal plateau is observed in the particle outflow. However, the results of time dependent particle production show no overt indication of negative energy flux. Therefore, a black hole’s birth cry is detectable by asymptotic observers via particle count, whereas its death gasp is not.

Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

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Kharis, M.; Amidi

2018-03-01

The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

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In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

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Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

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Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

2015-05-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The yellow Fever epidemic in Western mali, september-november 1987: why did epidemiological surveillance fail?

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Kurz, X

1990-03-01

Recent yellow fever epidemics in West Africa have underlined the discrepancy between the official number of cases and deaths and those estimated by a retrospective epidemiological investigation. During the yellow fever epidemic that broke out in western Mali in September 1987, a total of 305 cases and 145 deaths were officially notified, but estimates revealed true figures abut five times higher. This paper attempts to discuss the factors that hindered early case detection and more complete reporting. They were, first, the insufficient training on the clinical diagnosis, the blood sampling method for laboratory confirmation, and the curative treatment of patients (resulting in low utilization of services); second, the lack of an action plan to prepare in advance a quick response to the epidemic, affecting reporting procedures at the peripheral level and active case-finding during the outbreak; and third, the lack of laboratory facilities for a quick confirmation of the disease. The difficulties experienced during the yellow fever epidemic in Mali demonstrated the importance of a preparedness strategy for epidemic control, based on an integrated approach of epidemiological surveillance within basic health service activities. The need for regional collaboration and for institutionalized funds in the donor community that could be mobilized for epidemic preparedness activities is also emphasized.

Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

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Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2013-01-21

The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Black rice extract protected HepG2 cells from oxidative stress-induced cell death via ERK1/2 and Akt activation

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jaemin; Ham, Hyeonmi; Sung, Jeehye; Kim, Younghwa; Choi, Youngmin; Lee, Jeom-Sig; Jeong, Heon-Sang; Lee, Junsoo

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to evaluate the protective effect of black rice extract (BRE) on tert-butyl hydroperoxide (TBHP)-induced oxidative injury in HepG2 cells. MATERIALS/METHODS Methanolic extract from black rice was evaluated for the protective effect on TBHP-induced oxidative injury in HepG2 cells. Several biomarkers that modulate cell survival and death including reactive oxygen species (ROS), caspase-3 activity, and related cellular kinases were determined. RESULTS TBHP induced cell death and apoptosis by a rapid increase in ROS generation and caspase-3 activity. Moreover, TBHP-induced oxidative stress resulted in a transient ERK1/2 activation and a sustained increase of JNK1/2 activation. While, BRE pretreatment protects the cells against oxidative stress by reducing cell death, caspase-3 activity, and ROS generation and also by preventing ERKs deactivation and the prolonged JNKs activation. Moreover, pretreatment of BRE increased the activation of ERKs and Akt which are pro-survival signal proteins. However, this effect was blunted in the presence of ERKs and Akt inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that activation of ERKs and Akt pathway might be involved in the cytoprotective effect of BRE against oxidative stress. Our findings provide new insights into the cytoprotective effects and its possible mechanism of black rice against oxidative stress. PMID:24741394

Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

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Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

2017-01-01

Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exhumation of the Black Mountains in Death Valley, California, with new thermochronometric data from the Badwater Turtleback

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Sizemore, T. M.; Cemen, I.; Wielicki, M. M.; Stockli, D. F.; Heizler, M. T.; Lutz, B. M.

2017-12-01

The Black Mountains, in Death Valley, California, are one of the key areas to better understand Basin and Range extension because they contain Cenozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks overlying mid- to deep-crustal, 1.74 Ga basement gneiss with abundant fault striations, large-scale extensional folds, and tectonite fabrics containing top-to-the-northwest shear-sense indicators. These rocks make up the footwall of three prominent, high-relief "turtleback" fault surfaces in the western flank of the Black Mountains, which are thought to have accommodated a significant amount of strain in the Death Valley area. It is unknown whether the missing Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata in the Black Mountains were removed in association with high-angle faulting, or along a continuous detachment surface with a rolling-hinge style of faulting as the hanging wall moved to the west, now forming the Panamint Range. The turtlebacks play an important role in resolving this question because they are commonly cited as containing conflicting evidence of both hypotheses. To provide insight into this problem, we are building an exhumation model across the Black Mountains using previously published thermochronometric data as well as new transect-based (U-Th)/He and Ar-Ar thermochronology and U-Pb geochronology for the Badwater turtleback. The model will provide a four-dimensional view of the exhumation history of the Black Mountains, to serve as evidence for either of the two previously mentioned hypotheses, or possibly some other style of exhumation. Additionally, we will compare the exhumation history of the Black Mountains to that of the Panamint Range using previously published data and interpretations. Our preliminary zircon U-Pb data suggest a crystallization age for the gneissic rocks on the Badwater turtleback of 1.74 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=31.8 Ma, n=6) with two younger populations at 1.46 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=51.8 Ma, n=3) and 79.6 Ma (206Pb/238U, 2σ error=10.0 Ma, n=2

Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Day, J F

2001-01-01

St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Top Five Causes of Cancer Death,(†) by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity - United States, 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-16

In 2014, the top five causes of cancer deaths for the total population were lung, colorectal, female breast, pancreatic, and prostate cancer. The non-Hispanic black population had the highest age-adjusted death rates for each of these five cancers, followed by non-Hispanic white and Hispanic groups. The age-adjusted death rate for lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer death in all groups, was 42.1 per 100,000 standard population for the total population, 45.4 for non-Hispanic white, 45.7 for non-Hispanic black, and 18.3 for Hispanic populations.

Paleoseismology of the Southern Section of the Black Mountains and Southern Death Valley Fault Zones, Death Valley, United States

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Sohn, Marsha S.; Knott, Jeffrey R.; Mahan, Shannon

2014-01-01

The Death Valley Fault System (DVFS) is part of the southern Walker Lane–eastern California shear zone. The normal Black Mountains Fault Zone (BMFZ) and the right-lateral Southern Death Valley Fault Zone (SDVFZ) are two components of the DVFS. Estimates of late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates and recurrence intervals for these two fault zones are uncertain owing to poor relative age control. The BMFZ southernmost section (Section 1W) steps basinward and preserves multiple scarps in the Quaternary alluvial fans. We present optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates ranging from 27 to 4 ka of fluvial and eolian sand lenses interbedded with alluvial-fan deposits offset by the BMFZ. By cross-cutting relations, we infer that there were three separate ground-rupturing earthquakes on BMFZ Section 1W with vertical displacement between 5.5 m and 2.75 m. The slip-rate estimate is ∼0.2 to 1.8 mm/yr, with an earthquake recurrence interval of 4,500 to 2,000 years. Slip-per-event measurements indicate Mw 7.0 to 7.2 earthquakes. The 27–4-ka OSL-dated alluvial fans also overlie the putative Cinder Hill tephra layer. Cinder Hill is offset ∼213 m by SDVFZ, which yields a tentative slip rate of 1 to 8 mm/yr for the SDVFZ.

The contribution of biological, mathematical, clinical, engineering and social sciences to combatting the West African Ebola epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitty, Christopher J M

2017-05-26

The tragic West African Ebola epidemic claimed many lives, but would have been worse still if scientific insights from many disciplines had not been integrated to create a strong technical response. Epidemiology and modelling triggered the international response and guided where response efforts were directed; virology, engineering and clinical science helped reduce deaths and transmission in and from hospitals and treatment centres; social sciences were key to reducing deaths from funerals and in the community; diagnostic and operational research made the response more efficient; immunology and vaccine research contributed to the final stages of the epidemic and will help prevent future epidemics. These varied scientific contributions had to be integrated into a combined narrative, communicated to policymakers to inform decisions, and used by courageous local and international responders in the field in real time. Not every area of science was optimal, and in particular, clinical trials of simple interventions such as fluid management were slow to be adopted and sharing of data was initially poor. This Ebola epidemic demonstrated how science can respond to a major emergency, but also has lessons for better responses in future infectious emergencies.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

2017-09-01

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

Early Tertiary magmatism and probable Mesozoic fabrics in the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Martin G.; Friedman, Richard M.

1999-01-01

We report two early Tertiary U-Pb zircon ages for pegmatite from the Black Mountains of Death Valley, California. These ages, 54.7 ± 0.6 Ma and 56 ± 3 Ma, are unique for much of southeastern California. The samples belong to a pegmatite suite that occupies part of the footwall of the Badwater turtleback, a late Tertiary extensional feature; similar but undated pegmatite intrudes the footwalls of the Copper Canyon and Mormon Point turtlebacks farther south. The pegmatite suite demonstrates that fabric development on the turtlebacks was at least a two-stage process. Fabrics cut by these pegmatites likely formed during the Mesozoic, whereas those that involve them formed during late Tertiary extension.

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

The Black Mountains turtlebacks: Rosetta stones of Death Valley tectonics

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Marli B.; Pavlis, Terry L.

2005-12-01

The Black Mountains turtlebacks expose mid-crustal rock along the western front of the Black Mountains. As such, they provide keys to understanding the Tertiary structural evolution of Death Valley, and because of the outstanding rock exposure, they also provide valuable natural laboratories for observing structural processes. There are three turtlebacks: the Badwater turtleback in the north, the Copper Canyon turtleback, and the Mormon Point turtleback in the south. Although important differences exist among them, each turtleback displays a doubly plunging antiformal core of metamorphic and igneous rock and a brittle fault contact to the northwest that is structurally overlain by Miocene-Pleistocene volcanic and/or sedimentary rock. The turtleback cores contain mylonitic rocks that record an early period of top-southeastward directed shear followed by top-northwestward directed shear. The earlier formed mylonites are cut by, and locally appear concurrent with, 55-61 Ma pegmatite. We interpret these fabrics as related to large-scale, basement-involved thrust faults at the turtlebacks, now preserved as areally-extensive, metamorphosed, basement over younger-cover contacts. The younger, and far more pervasive, mylonites record late Tertiary extensional unroofing of the turtleback footwalls from mid-crustal depths. Available geochronology suggests that they cooled through 300 °C at different times: 13 Ma at Badwater; 6 Ma at Copper Canyon; 8 Ma at Mormon Point. At Mormon Point and Copper Canyon turtlebacks these dates record cooling of the metamorphic assemblages from beneath the floor of an ˜ 11 Ma Tertiary plutonic complex. Collectively these relationships suggest that the turtlebacks record initiation of ductile extension before ˜ 14 Ma followed by injection of a large plutonic complex along the ductile shear zone. Ductile deformation continued during extensional uplift until the rocks cooled below temperatures for crystal plastic deformation by 6-8 Ma

'Death Star' Galaxy Black Hole Fires at Neighboring Galaxy

Science.gov (United States)

2008-12-01

This "death star" galaxy was discovered through the combined efforts of both space and ground-based telescopes. NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory, Hubble Space Telescope, and Spitzer Space Telescope were part of the effort. The Very Large Array telescope, Socorro, N.M., and the Multi-Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network (MERLIN) telescopes in the United Kingdom also were needed for the finding. Illustration of Jet Striking Galaxy (unlabeled) Illustration of Jet Striking Galaxy (unlabeled) "We've seen many jets produced by black holes, but this is the first time we've seen one punch into another galaxy like we're seeing here," said Dan Evans, a scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and leader of the study. "This jet could be causing all sorts of problems for the smaller galaxy it is pummeling." Jets from super massive black holes produce high amounts of radiation, especially high-energy X-rays and gamma-rays, which can be lethal in large quantities. The combined effects of this radiation and particles traveling at almost the speed of light could severely damage the atmospheres of planets lying in the path of the jet. For example, protective layers of ozone in the upper atmosphere of planets could be destroyed. X-ray & Radio Full Field Image of 3C321 X-ray & Radio Full Field Image of 3C321 Jets produced by super massive black holes transport enormous amounts of energy far from black holes and enable them to affect matter on scales vastly larger than the size of the black hole. Learning more about jets is a key goal for astrophysical research. "We see jets all over the Universe, but we're still struggling to understand some of their basic properties," said co-investigator Martin Hardcastle of the University of Hertfordshire, United Kingdom. "This system of 3C321 gives us a chance to learn how they're affected when they slam into something - like a galaxy - and what they do after that." Optical Image of 3C321 Optical Image of 3C321 The

Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddique, A K

1994-01-01

In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

2015-01-01

Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.

[Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2012-11-01

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

Science.gov (United States)

Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

1984-01-01

Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

Rural black women's agency within intimate partnerships amid the South African HIV epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Thege, Britta

2009-12-01

In a particular way, the HIV pandemic exposes the prevailing gender relations and the definitions of male and female gender roles, both in intimate relationships and in the wider society. The HIV pandemic reveals the contradictions between women's legal rights and the persistence of women's cultural and sexual subordination. It reflects the impact of poverty, gender roles, culture and religion. Although HIV and AIDS cuts across class, South African rural black women's infection risk seems particularly high since they suffer notably from subordination and socio-economic hardships. Negotiating safer sex in marriage or intimate partnerships is very difficult for them in view of the traditional spaces in which they find themselves, where patriarchal structures are pervasive. Based on data obtained from a case study, this paper examines socio-cultural constraints to rural women's sexual agency in a patriarchal social order. These rules are based on a patriarchal code of respect, which is still pervasive in many aspects of the community under investigation. In terms of gender relations, the patriarchal code of respect is founded on an assumed 'naturalisation' of the two genders and the natural superiority of the male over the female. In terms of sexuality it is translated into male sex-right. The fear of HIV infection is omnipresent and results in unmarried women engaging in the negotiation of their wants and needs. Owing to the patriarchal code of respect, married women are perceived as having no choice in negotiating safer sex and are forced to put their lives at risk in contracting HIV. Unmarried women have greater although not endless choices in this regard. Although the study participants unexpectedly displayed a rather negative perception of other women, in order to strengthen women in their proximal environment the HIV epidemic may be seen as a vehicle for building solidarity among women in the community.

HIV/AIDS prevention, faith, and spirituality among black/African American and Latino communities in the United States: strengthening scientific faith-based efforts to shift the course of the epidemic and reduce HIV-related health disparities.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Madeline Y; Parks, Carolyn P

2013-06-01

Black/African American and Latino communities are disproportionately affected by the domestic HIV/AIDS epidemic. Blacks/African Americans and Latinos are also more likely to report a formal, religious, or faith affiliation when compared with non-Hispanic whites. As such, faith leaders and their institutions have been identified in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy as having a vital role to serve in reducing: (1) HIV-related health disparities and (2) the number of new HIV infections by promoting non-judgmental support for persons living with and at risk for HIV/AIDS and by serving as trusted information resources for their congregants and communities. We describe faith doctrines and faith-science partnerships that are increasing in support of faith-based HIV prevention and service delivery activities and discuss the vital role of these faith-based efforts in highly affected black/African American and Latino communities.

Black and White Differentials in Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Rene, Antonio A.; Clifford, Patrick R.

1986-01-01

Overviews vital statistics data, emphasizing differences in health status between the Black and White populations with respect to specific diseases and mortality. Discusses major causes of death among US Blacks. (GC)

Black Films and Film-Makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Lindsay, Ed.

The development of black films and the attitudes of the film industry toward black films and black actors are some of the topics examined in this anthology of essays. Section 1, "Nigger to Supernigger," contains such articles as "The Death of Rastus: Negroes in American Films" by Thomas R. Cripps and "Folk Values in a New Medium" by Alain Locke…

[Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

2010-01-01

The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

Three days in October of 1630: detailed examination of mortality during an early modern plague epidemic in Venice.

Science.gov (United States)

Ell, S R

1989-01-01

The epidemiology of medieval and early modern European plague remains highly controversial. It now seems likely that the epidemiology was not uniform throughout either the geographic or temporal boundaries of the plague in Western Europe. The Venetian plague of 1630 was extensively documented; day-by-day records were kept, and each mortality in the city was recorded in a set format. The days 23-25 October 1630, representing a period when mortality was beginning to increase sharply, are examined. In all, 1,163 deaths were recorded. They show a large preponderance of women; a mean age of 28, but a majority of cases clumped between ages 0 and 25 years; and an unequal sex ratio among children. Further, there was an identifiable smallpox epidemic raging simultaneously with plague, and more than one-quarter of all the deaths in this period of high mortality were clearly due to nonplague causes. Deaths due to wounds and associated with violence were prominent in one parish, which suggests that in times of plague the breakdown in the normal machinery of government, in everyday patterns of life, and possibly of mental well being resulted in an even more exaggerated death toll. These factors--violence, accidents, and other epidemics--have never been so definitively tied to a European plague epidemic. In addition, there are hints that plague has a marked proclivity to kill pregnant women--their deaths far outnumber those anticipated--and that plague was very localized at a given moment within Venice itself, even during times of peak mortality.

Compensating Scientism through "The Black Hole."

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Lane

The focal image of the film "The Black Hole" functions as a visual metaphor for the sacred, order, unity, and eternal time. The black hole is a symbol that unites the antinomic pairs of conscious/unconscious, water/fire, immersion/emersion, death/rebirth, and hell/heaven. The black hole is further associated with the quest for…

Targeted enrichment of ancient pathogens yielding the pPCP1 plasmid of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuenemann, Verena J; Bos, Kirsten; DeWitte, Sharon; Schmedes, Sarah; Jamieson, Joslyn; Mittnik, Alissa; Forrest, Stephen; Coombes, Brian K; Wood, James W; Earn, David J D; White, William; Krause, Johannes; Poinar, Hendrik N

2011-09-20

Although investigations of medieval plague victims have identified Yersinia pestis as the putative etiologic agent of the pandemic, methodological limitations have prevented large-scale genomic investigations to evaluate changes in the pathogen's virulence over time. We screened over 100 skeletal remains from Black Death victims of the East Smithfield mass burial site (1348-1350, London, England). Recent methods of DNA enrichment coupled with high-throughput DNA sequencing subsequently permitted reconstruction of ten full human mitochondrial genomes (16 kb each) and the full pPCP1 (9.6 kb) virulence-associated plasmid at high coverage. Comparisons of molecular damage profiles between endogenous human and Y. pestis DNA confirmed its authenticity as an ancient pathogen, thus representing the longest contiguous genomic sequence for an ancient pathogen to date. Comparison of our reconstructed plasmid against modern Y. pestis shows identity with several isolates matching the Medievalis biovar; however, our chromosomal sequences indicate the victims were infected with a Y. pestis variant that has not been previously reported. Our data reveal that the Black Death in medieval Europe was caused by a variant of Y. pestis that may no longer exist, and genetic data carried on its pPCP1 plasmid were not responsible for the purported epidemiological differences between ancient and modern forms of Y. pestis infections.

Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabaan, Ali A

2018-06-22

Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sun, G.Q.; Liu, Q.X.; Jin, Z.; Chakraborty, A.; Li, B.L.

2010-01-01

Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Epidemics after Natural Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

2007-01-01

The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

First isolation of dengue virus from the 2010 epidemic in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Basu D; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M N; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

2013-09-01

Dengue is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologically-confirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These samples were subjected to routine laboratory investigations and IgM-capture ELISA for dengue serological identification, and 160 acute serum samples were used for virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results showed that affected patients were predominately adults, and that 10% of the cases were classified as dengue haemorrhagic fever/ dengue shock syndrome. The genetic characterization of dengue viruses isolated from patients in four major outbreak areas of Nepal suggests that the DENV-1 strain was responsible for the 2010 epidemic. Entomological studies identified Aedes aegypti in all epidemic areas. All viruses belonged to a monophyletic single clade which is phylogenetically close to Indian viruses. The dengue epidemic started in the lowlands and expanded to the highland areas. To our knowledge, this is the first dengue isolation and genetic characterization reported from Nepal.

Gender and leadership for health literacy to combat the epidemic rise of noncommunicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Manhanzva, Rufaro; Marara, Praise; Duxbury, Theodore; Bobbins, Amy Claire; Pearse, Noel; Hoel, Erik; Mzizi, Thandi; Srinivas, Sunitha C

2017-08-01

Until recently, the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic has been considered only a significant burden to men in high-income countries. However, latest figures indicate that half of all NCD-related deaths affect women, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global responses to the NCD epidemic overlooking the significance of women and girls in their approaches and programs. This case study highlights the burden of disease challenging South Africa that disproportionately affects women in the country and suggests that the country, along with other LMICs internationally, requires a shift in the gender-based leadership of health literacy and self-empowerment.

The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wu LT

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

Black Holes: A Selected Bibliography.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraknoi, Andrew

1991-01-01

Offers a selected bibliography pertaining to black holes with the following categories: introductory books; introductory articles; somewhat more advanced articles; readings about Einstein's general theory of relativity; books on the death of stars; articles on the death of stars; specific articles about Supernova 1987A; relevant science fiction…

Cause-specific contributions to black-white differences in male mortality from 1960 to 1995

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Between 1960 and 1995 the black-white difference in male life expectancy in the United States increased from 6.7 years to 8.2 years. To provide insights into why mortality trends have been more adverse for black men than for white men, we investigate which causes of death were principally responsible for changes in the black-white difference in male mortality at ages 15-64 between 1960 and 1995. We find that black-white differences in male mortality varied substantially during this period. The gap increased in the 1960s, declined in the 1970s, and widened in the 1980s-early 1990s. Our findings reveal considerable variation in black-white disparities by cause of death and by age, as well as changes in the relative importance of various causes of death to the black-white male mortality disparity over time. The results suggest that consequences of black-white differences in socioeconomic status, access to quality health care, living conditions, and residential segregation vary by cause of death.

Census Undercount and the Undercount of the Black Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Phung

1996-01-01

Argues that blacks have been disproportionately undercounted in the census and this undercount has resulted in such biased statistics as proportions of black female-headed households, victimization rates of black males, or crude death rates of blacks. Further, these statistics are biased upward and downward, and together they generate distorted…

Same Disease—different research strategies: Bananas and Black Sigatoka in Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cordoba, D.M.; Jansen, K.

2014-01-01

Fungal disease epidemics have the potential to bring about drastic innovations. However, in the case of the Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) fungus in bananas, producers and international traders are still awaiting a breakthrough in crop protection research. Using the cases of Brazil and

Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

2013-01-01

Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

Black Rice (Oryza sativa L., Poaceae) Extract Reduces Hippocampal Neuronal Cell Death Induced by Transient Global Cerebral Ischemia in Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Sun-Nyoung; Kim, Jae-Cheon; Bhuiyan, Mohammad Iqbal Hossain; Kim, Joo Youn; Yang, Ji Seon; Yoon, Shin Hee; Yoon, Kee Dong; Kim, Seong Yun

2018-04-01

Rice is the most commonly consumed grain in the world. Black rice has been suggested to contain various bioactive compounds including anthocyanin antioxidants. There is currently little information about the nutritional benefits of black rice on brain pathology. Here, we investigated the effects of black rice ( Oryza sativa L ., Poaceae) extract (BRE) on the hippocampal neuronal damage induced by ischemic insult. BRE (300 mg/kg) was orally administered to adult male C57BL/6 mice once a day for 21 days. Bilateral common carotid artery occlusion (BCCAO) was performed for 23 min on the 8th day of BRE or vehicle administration. Histological analyses conducted on the 22nd day of BRE or vehicle administration revealed that administering BRE profoundly attenuated neuronal cell death, inhibited reactive astrogliosis, and prevented loss of glutathione peroxidase expression in the hippocampus when compared to vehicle treatment. In addition, BRE considerably ameliorated BCCAO-induced memory impairment on the Morris water maze test from the 15th day to the 22nd day of BRE or vehicle administration. These results indicate that chronic administration of BRE is potentially beneficial in cerebral ischemia.

Vital Signs: Racial Disparities in Age-Specific Mortality Among Blacks or African Americans - United States, 1999-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Timothy J; Croft, Janet B; Liu, Yong; Lu, Hua; Eke, Paul I; Giles, Wayne H

2017-05-05

Although the overall life expectancy at birth has increased for both blacks and whites and the gap between these populations has narrowed, disparities in life expectancy and the leading causes of death for blacks compared with whites in the United States remain substantial. Understanding how factors that influence these disparities vary across the life span might enhance the targeting of appropriate interventions. Trends during 1999-2015 in mortality rates for the leading causes of death were examined by black and white race and age group. Multiple 2014 and 2015 national data sources were analyzed to compare blacks with whites in selected age groups by sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health behaviors, health-related quality of life indicators, use of health services, and chronic conditions. During 1999-2015, age-adjusted death rates decreased significantly in both populations, with rates declining more sharply among blacks for most leading causes of death. Thus, the disparity gap in all-cause mortality rates narrowed from 33% in 1999 to 16% in 2015. However, during 2015, blacks still had higher death rates than whites for all-cause mortality in all groups aged blacks in age groups deaths among blacks (especially cardiovascular disease and cancer and their risk factors) across the life span and create equal opportunities for health.

Incarcerating Death: Mortality in U.S. State Correctional Facilities, 1985–1998

OpenAIRE

PATTERSON, EVELYN J.

2010-01-01

Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings ...

Ayanin diacetate-induced cell death is amplified by TRAIL in human leukemia cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marrero, Maria Teresa; Estevez, Sara; Negrin, Gledy; Quintana, Jose [Departamento de Bioquimica, Unidad Asociada al Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Plaza Dr. Pasteur s/n, 35016 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain); Lopez, Mariana; Perez, Francisco J.; Triana, Jorge [Departamento de Quimica, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Instituto Canario de Investigacion del Cancer, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain); Leon, Francisco [Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiologia, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Avda. Astrofisico F. Sanchez 3, 38206 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Estevez, Francisco, E-mail: festevez@dbbf.ulpgc.es [Departamento de Bioquimica, Unidad Asociada al Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Plaza Dr. Pasteur s/n, 35016 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

2012-11-09

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Ayanin diacetate as apoptotic inducer in leukemia cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Cell death was prevented by caspase inhibitors and by the overexpression of Bcl-x{sub L}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The intrinsic and the extrinsic pathways are involved in the mechanism of action. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Death receptors are up-regulated and TRAIL enhances apoptotic cell death. -- Abstract: Here we demonstrate that the semi-synthetic flavonoid ayanin diacetate induces cell death selectively in leukemia cells without affecting the proliferation of normal lymphocytes. Incubation of human leukemia cells with ayanin diacetate induced G{sub 2}-M phase cell cycle arrest and apoptosis which was prevented by the non-specific caspase inhibitor z-VAD-fmk and reduced by the overexpression of Bcl-x{sub L}. Ayanin diacetate-induced cell death was found to be associated with: (i) loss of inner mitochondrial membrane potential, (ii) the release of cytochrome c, (iii) the activation of multiple caspases, (iv) cleavage of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase and (v) the up-regulation of death receptors for TRAIL, DR4 and DR5. Moreover, the combined treatment with ayanin diacetate and TRAIL amplified cell death, compared to single treatments. These results provide a basis for further exploring the potential applications of this combination for the treatment of cancer.

Cancer Differences in the Black and Caucasian Population

Science.gov (United States)

White, Jack E.

1977-01-01

Cancer mortality in U.S. blacks has greatly increased since 1950. This greater increase for blacks was found in 28 of the 56 most frequent cancers. Greater exposure to environmental carcinogens appears to be the main cause. This author recommends a thorough epidemiologic study of the rise in black cancer deaths. (Author/GC)

A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

2016-11-01

An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

Epidemic typhus.

Science.gov (United States)

Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

2008-07-01

Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

2012-01-01

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

2012-09-03

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

2018-03-01

We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

Science.gov (United States)

Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Packer, Craig

2008-06-25

Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become

Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Munson

Full Text Available Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer. As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality

Climate Extremes Promote Fatal Co-Infections during Canine Distemper Epidemics in African Lions

Science.gov (United States)

Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A.; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E.; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R. E.; Packer, Craig

2008-01-01

Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five “silent” CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may

Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa

OpenAIRE

Chattu, Vijay Kumar

2015-01-01

HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) i...

Gaborone is Growing like a Baby: Life Expectancies and Death ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article examines the paradox of Botswana's twin reputations: first, successful national development and second, premature death from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. While locating these reputations in the capital city, Gaborone, the article analyzes reflections of people who are themselves the audience for, and participants in, ...

An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fenelon

2013-09-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Sultan

2005-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

Cardiovascular deaths in children: general overview from the National Center for the Review and Prevention of Child Deaths.

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Victoria L; Covington, Theresa M; Dugan, Noreen P; Haley, Danielle Main; Dykstra, Heather; Overpeck, Mary; Iyer, V Ramesh; Shults, Justine

2015-03-01

Cardiovascular conditions rank sixth in causes of death in 1- to 19-year-olds. Our study is the first analysis of the cardiovascular death data set from the National Center for the Review and Prevention of Child Deaths, which provides the only systematic collection of cardiovascular deaths in children. We developed an analytical data set from the National Center for the Review and Prevention of Child Deaths database for cardiovascular deaths in children 0 to 21 years old, reviewing 1,098 cases from 2005 to 2009 in 16 states who agreed to participate. Cardiovascular cases were aged 4.8 ± 6.6 years; 55.3%, ≤1 year; 24.6%, ≥10 years; male, 58%; white, 70.5%; black, 22.3%; Hispanic, 19.5%. Prior conditions were present in 48.5%: congenital heart disease, 23%; cardiomyopathies, 4.6%; arrhythmia, 1.7%; and congestive heart failure, 1.6%. Deaths occurred most frequently in urban settings, 49.2%; and in the hospital, 40.4%; home, 26.1%; or at school/work/sports, 4.8%. Emergency medical services were not evenly distributed with differences by age, race, ethnicity, and area. Autopsies (40.4%) occurred more often in those >10 years old (odds ratio [OR] 2.9), blacks (OR 1.6), or in those who died at school/work/sports (OR 3.9). The most common cardiovascular causes of death included congenital heart disease, 40.8%; arrhythmias, 27.1%; cardiomyopathy, 11.8%; myocarditis, 4.6%; congestive heart failure, 3.6%; and coronary artery anomalies, 2.2%. Our study identified differences in causes and frequencies of cardiovascular deaths by age, race, and ethnicity. Prevention of death may be impacted by knowledge of prior conditions, emergency plans, automated external defibrillator programs, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation education, and by a registry for all cardiovascular deaths in children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

HIV/AIDS and pregnancy-related deaths in Blantyre, Malawi | Lema ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: HIV/AIDS epidemic is one of the major factors affecting women's health and impeding national efforts to improve it especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current evidence indicates that HIV/ AIDS is increasingly becoming a major cause or contributing factor to pregnancy-related deaths, almost overtaking the ...

An Introduction to the Black Sea Ecology

Science.gov (United States)

2001-01-01

genus related to the Black Sea Cystoseira) are transported away from the Gulf of Mexico by the Gulf Stream to the northeast and are retained by the...social and economic consequences are not less harmful. It is enough to name the cases of epidemics of cholera and other gastrointestinal infections...seawater, are also found Salmonella, cholera’s vibrios , helmint’s eggs, viruses and other pathogenic organisms which are usually common in insufficiently

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Two regimes of HIV/AIDS: The MMWR and the socio-political construction of HIV/AIDS as a 'black disease'.

Science.gov (United States)

Moseby, Kevin M

2017-09-01

Over the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, black Americans have become a central target of US public health prevention efforts. And today, HIV/AIDS is understood to disproportionately affect black Americans. This markedly contrasts with knowledge about the disease and efforts to prevent it in the first decade of the epidemic in the US, when expert and lay understandings and responses centred on white gay males. This article demonstrates that explaining these historical reversals as purely reflective of epidemiological data - or best knowledge available - is insufficient. Drawing on the concept disease regimes and utilising a discursive analysis of epidemiological results and editorial commentary published from 1981 to 1994 in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR), this article argues for a socio-political explanation for the changing colour of HIV/AIDS. That is, it scrutinises institutional and discursive practices that within the HIV/AIDS prevention field and disease discourse constituted a 'regime of black American exclusion' (1981-1992) and a 'regime of black American inclusion (1993-present day). © 2017 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Do black lives matter in public health research and training?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Molly Rosenberg

Full Text Available To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans.In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans.Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9 was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10.Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans.

Do black lives matter in public health research and training?

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Molly; Ranapurwala, Shabbar I; Townes, Ashley; Bengtson, Angela M

2017-01-01

To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans. In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL) across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications) by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans. Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9) was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10). Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans.

Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Andrew J

2008-08-22

An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level) of investigation. Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in turn might mean traditional quarantine measures should be

First Isolation of Dengue Virus from the 2010 Epidemic in Nepal

OpenAIRE

Pandey, Basu D.; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P.; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R.; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M. N.; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

2013-01-01

Denguei is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologicallyconfirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These...

Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

Science.gov (United States)

Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

2010-01-01

Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

Internalized stigma and HIV status disclosure among HIV-positive black men who have sex with men

OpenAIRE

Overstreet, Nicole M.; Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Quinn, Diane M.

2012-01-01

Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) are severely affected by the HIV epidemic, yet research on the relationship between HIV stigma and status disclosure is relatively limited among this population. Within this epidemic, internalized HIV stigma, the extent to which people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) endorse the negative beliefs associated with HIV as true of themselves, can negatively shape interpersonal outcomes and have important implications for psychological and physical health. In a s...

National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2012-02-01

In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.  Created: 2/1/2012 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 2/1/2012.

Epidemic as a natural process.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

2018-05-01

Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deaths From Secondhand Smoke Exposure in the United States: Economic Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Hai-Yen; Shi, Yanling

2012-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the number of deaths attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and value of lost productivity for different US racial/ethnic groups in 2006. Methods. We determined the number of SHS–related deaths among nonsmokers from 2 adult and 4 infant conditions using an epidemiological approach. We estimated adult SHS exposure using detectable serum cotinine. For each death, we determined the YPLL and the value of lost productivity. Results. SHS exposure resulted in more than 42 000 deaths: more than 41 000 adults and nearly 900 infants. Blacks accounted for 13% of all deaths but 24% to 36% of infant deaths. SHS–attributable deaths resulted in a loss of nearly 600 000 YPLL and $6.6 billion of lost productivity, or $158 000 per death. The value of lost productivity per death was highest among Blacks ($238 000) and Hispanics ($193 000). Conclusions. The economic toll of SHS exposure is substantial, with communities of color having the greatest losses. Interventions need to be designed to reduce the health and economic burden of smoking on smokers and nonsmokers alike and on particularly vulnerable groups. PMID:22994180

Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

OpenAIRE

Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

2016-01-01

Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

2014-01-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

2014-02-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Keeping the Community Posted: Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Blogs and the Tobacco Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joseph G L

2014-06-01

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people are more likely to use tobacco products than heterosexual people. This results in disproportionate death and disability for LGBT communities. Yet, addressing the tobacco epidemic is generally low on the agenda of LGBT community organizations, and LGBT individuals report lower levels of support for some evidence-based tobacco prevention and control policies than heterosexuals. Informed by agenda-setting theory, this study investigated coverage of the tobacco epidemic in LGBT news blogs. Sixteen blogs and 105 tobacco-related posts from 2003 to March 9, 2013, were identified, and a quantitative content analysis was conducted. Coverage of the tobacco epidemic was primarily concentrated in four blogs and focused on the epidemiology of the epidemic and on tobacco-related policies. Little coverage focused on the tobacco industry, addiction, or health effects. A substantial minority of coverage focused on socially conservative arguments comparing smoking to homosexuality as a lifestyle choice. Thirty-three organizations working on LGBT tobacco prevention and control were present in blog posts. LGBT news blogs have a potentially important and mostly untapped role in tobacco-related media advocacy. LGBT health advocates would do well to cultivate relationships with LGBT bloggers as well as include bloggers in dissemination and media strategy efforts.

America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

2017-11-01

America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

Is rheumatoid arthritis a consequence of natural selection for enhanced tuberculosis resistance?

Science.gov (United States)

Mobley, James L

2004-01-01

Although the bubonic plague or "Black Death" is notorious for the toll it took on the population of Europe in the middle ages, another epidemic, the "White Death" of tuberculosis is responsible for millions of deaths worldwide over the past 300 years. With one in four deaths due to tuberculosis in Western Europe and the United States in the 19th century, this disease undoubtedly acted as a powerful genetic selective force. The epidemiology of modern day rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is strikingly similar to the epidemiology of tuberculosis 100-200 years ago, suggesting the possibility that genetic factors that enhanced survival in tuberculosis epidemics are now influencing susceptibility to RA. Recent advances in the analysis of genetic polymorphisms associated with disease have identified several genes linked to RA susceptibility that encode proteins involved in the immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, including TNF-alpha, NRAMP1, PARP-1, HLA-DRB1, and PADI4. These results suggest that rheumatoid arthritis, and possibly other autoimmune diseases, are modern day manifestations of the genetic selective pressure exerted by tuberculosis epidemics of the recent past.

Discrimination and instructional comprehension: guided discretion, racial bias, and the death penalty.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, M; Haney, C

2000-06-01

This study links two previously unrelated lines of research: the lack of comprehension of capital penalty-phase jury instructions and discriminatory death sentencing. Jury-eligible subjects were randomly assigned to view one of four versions of a simulated capital penalty trial in which the race of defendant (Black or White) and the race of victim (Black or White) were varied orthogonally. Dependent measures included a sentencing verdict (life without the possibility of parole or the death penalty), ratings of penalty phase evidence, and a test of instructional comprehension. Results indicated that instructional comprehension was poor overall and that, although Black defendants were treated only slightly more punitively than White defendants in general, discriminatory effects were concentrated among participants whose comprehension was poorest. In addition, the use of penalty phase evidence differed as a function of race of defendant and whether the participant sentenced the defendant to life or death. The study suggest that racially biased and capricious death sentencing may be in part caused or exacerbated by the inability to comprehend penalty phase instructions.

CLINICAL AND SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROFILE OF BLACK WOMEN PRONE MATERNAL DEATH: ASSISTANCE TO WOMEN IN A UNIT OF PUBLIC DF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith Aparecida Trevisan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Sample survey conducted in the Public Health Unit of the Federal District, with only blackwomen pregnant. Aims to verify the compliance of specific group and degree of receptivityand awareness on health pregnancy. The study area lies in women's health and training ofhealth professionals in nursing.The analyzed result goes against the interests of publicmanagement in health through compliance with international agreements established in theMillennium Development Goals to reduce maternal and infant death and the eradication ofracism-4th 5th and 9th MDG / UN. He attempts to verify the paucity of nursing actions inthe face of known pre-existing impairment of hypertension, abortions, sickle cell anemia, pre-eclampsia in women of black ethnic group, living in communities of less infrastructure andless education. Registers the range, in the Federal District, the public health policies aimed atfulfilling agreements for equality and reducing child mortality and achieving the targets for2015 of reducing the maternal and infant mortality, according tothe United Nations, which isthe 5th goal millennium.Keywords: Women's Health, the black population, the UnitedNations

Prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death during an epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hak, E; Verheij, T J; van Essen, G A; Lafeber, A B; Grobbee, D E; Hoes, A W

To predict which patients with current high-risk disease in the community may benefit most from additional preventive or therapeutic measures for influenza, we determined prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death in a general practice-based case-control study among this

Surveillance for Violent Deaths - National Violent Death Reporting System, 17 States, 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, Bridget H; Fowler, Katherine A; Jack, Shane P D; Betz, Carter J; Blair, Janet M

2016-08-19

health problem or a crisis during the previous or upcoming 2 weeks. Homicide rates were higher among males and persons aged 15-44 years; rates were highest among non-Hispanic black males. Homicides primarily were precipitated by arguments and interpersonal conflicts, occurrence in conjunction with another crime, or were related to intimate partner violence (particularly for females). A known relationship between a homicide victim and a suspected perpetrator was most likely either that of an acquaintance or friend or an intimate partner. Legal intervention death rates were highest among males and persons aged 20-24 years and 30-34 years; rates were highest among non-Hispanic black males. Precipitating factors for the majority of legal intervention deaths were another crime, a mental health problem, or a recent crisis. Deaths of undetermined intent occurred at the highest rates among males and persons aged guide suicide prevention efforts at workplaces. The continued development and expansion of NVDRS to include all U.S. states, territories, and the District of Columbia are essential to public health efforts to reduce the impact of violence.

In a spin: the mysterious dancing epidemic of 1518.

Science.gov (United States)

Waller, John C

2008-09-01

In 1518, one of the strangest epidemics in recorded history struck the city of Strasbourg. Hundreds of people were seized by an irresistible urge to dance, hop and leap into the air. In houses, halls and public spaces, as fear paralyzed the city and the members of the elite despaired, the dancing continued with mindless intensity. Seldom pausing to eat, drink or rest, many of them danced for days or even weeks. And before long, the chronicles agree, dozens were dying from exhaustion. What was it that could have impelled as many as 400 people to dance, in some cases to death?

Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-Chun Lo

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Science.gov (United States)

Siettos, Constantinos; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2015-03-09

We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of

Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

Science.gov (United States)

Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

2016-01-01

Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Using Our Voices, Losing Our Bodies: Michael Brown, Trayvon Martin, and the Spirit Murders of Black Male Professors in the Academy

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Lamar; Bryan, Nathaniel

2017-01-01

The recent deaths of Michael Brown, Trayvon Martin, and other Black males have generated new civil rights urgencies in Black communities and spirited academic discourses in higher education regarding the educational and social plight of Black males in America. Connecting the deaths of Black males to our lived experiences in the academy, we use a…

Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

2017-05-01

Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

Racial Characteristics and the Imposition of the Death Penalty.

Science.gov (United States)

Radelet, Michael L.

1981-01-01

Data from Florida from 1976-77 show that those accused of murdering Whites are more likely to be sentenced to death than those accused of murdering Blacks. If victim's race is controlled, however, data do not clearly support the hypothesis that defendant's race is strongly associated with imposition of the death penalty. (Author/GC)

On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2014-05-01

Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

Counting indirect crisis-related deaths in the context of a low-resilience health system: the case of maternal and neonatal health during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

Science.gov (United States)

Sochas, Laura; Channon, Andrew Amos; Nam, Sara

2017-11-01

Although the number of direct Ebola-related deaths from the 2013 to 2016 West African Ebola outbreak has been quantified, the number of indirect deaths, resulting from decreased utilization of routine health services, remains unknown. Such information is a key ingredient of health system resilience, essential for adequate allocation of resources to both 'crisis response activities' and 'core functions'. Taking stock of indirect deaths may also help the concept of health system resilience achieve political traction over the traditional approach of disease-specific surveillance. This study responds to these imperatives by quantifying the extent of the drop in utilization of essential reproductive, maternal and neonatal health services in Sierra Leone during the Ebola outbreak by using interrupted time-series regression to analyse Health Management Information System (HMIS) data. Using the Lives Saved Tool, we then model the implication of this decrease in utilization in terms of excess maternal and neonatal deaths, as well as stillbirths. We find that antenatal care coverage suffered from the largest decrease in coverage as a result of the Ebola epidemic, with an estimated 22 percentage point (p.p.) decrease in population coverage compared with the most conservative counterfactual scenario. Use of family planning, facility delivery and post-natal care services also decreased but to a lesser extent (-6, -8 and -13 p.p. respectively). This decrease in utilization of life-saving health services translates to 3600 additional maternal, neonatal and stillbirth deaths in the year 2014-15 under the most conservative scenario. In other words, we estimate that the indirect mortality effects of a crisis in the context of a health system lacking resilience may be as important as the direct mortality effects of the crisis itself. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved

Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Javier M; Geronimus, Arline T; Bound, John; Dorling, Danny

2015-07-01

Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypothetical survivors to 2004, (3) the probability that survivors would have turned out to vote in 2004, (4) total black votes lost in 2004, and (5) total black votes lost by each presidential candidate. We estimate 2.7 million excess black deaths between 1970 and 2004. Of those, 1.9 million would have survived until 2004, of which over 1.7 million would have been of voting-age. We estimate that 1 million black votes were lost in 2004; of these, 900,000 votes were lost by the defeated Democratic presidential nominee. We find that many close state-level elections over the study period would likely have had different outcomes if voting age blacks had the mortality profiles of whites. US black voting rights are also eroded through felony disenfranchisement laws and other measures that dampen the voice of the US black electorate. Systematic disenfranchisement by population group yields an electorate that is unrepresentative of the full interests of the citizenry and affects the chance that elected officials have mandates to eliminate health inequality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hepatitis E epidemics in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

2009-01-01

The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

Post-death cloning of endangered Jeju black cattle (Korean native cattle): fertility and serum chemistry in a cloned bull and cow and their offspring.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eun Young; Song, Dong Hwan; Park, Min Jee; Park, Hyo Young; Lee, Seung Eun; Choi, Hyun Yong; Moon, Jeremiah Jiman; Kim, Young Hoon; Mun, Seong Ho; Oh, Chang Eon; Ko, Moon Suck; Lee, Dong Sun; Riu, Key Zung; Park, Se Pill

2013-12-17

To preserve Jeju black cattle (JBC; endangered native Korean cattle), a pair of cattle, namely a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, were produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) in a previous study. In the present study, we examined the in vitro fertilization and reproductive potentials of these post-death cloned animals. Sperm motility, in vitro fertilization and developmental capacity were examined in a post-death cloned bull (Heuk Oll Dolee) and an extinct nuclear donor bull (BK94-13). We assessed reproductive ability in another post-death cloned cow (Heuk Woo Sunee) using cloned sperm for artificial insemination (AI). There were no differences in sperm motility or developmental potential of in vitro fertilized embryos between the post-death cloned bull and its extinct nuclear donor bull; however, the embryo development ratio was slightly higher in the cloned sperm group than in the nuclear donor sperm group. After one attempt at AI, the post-death cloned JBC cow became pregnant, and gestation proceeded normally until day 287. From this post-death cloned sire and dam, a JBC male calf (Heuk Woo Dolee) was delivered naturally (weight, 25 kg). The genetic paternity/maternity of the cloned JBC bull and cow with regard to their offspring was confirmed using International Society for Animal Genetics standard microsatellite markers. Presently, Heuk Woo Dolee is 5 months of age and growing normally. In addition, there were no significant differences in blood chemistry among the post-death cloned JBC bull, the cow, their offspring and cattle bred by AI. This is the first report showing that a pair of cattle, namely, a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, had normal fertility. Therefore, SCNT can be used effectively to increase the population of endangered JBC.

Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

From Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa to the Meningitis Vaccine Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguado, M Teresa; Jodar, Luis; Granoff, Dan; Rabinovich, Regina; Ceccarini, Costante; Perkin, Gordon W

2015-11-15

Polysaccharide vaccines had been used to control African meningitis epidemics for >30 years but with little or modest success, largely because of logistical problems in the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns that are begun after epidemics are under way. After the major group A meningococcal meningitis epidemics in 1996-1997 (250,000 cases and 25,000 deaths), African ministers of health declared the prevention of meningitis a high priority and asked the World Health Organization (WHO) for help in developing better immunization strategies to eliminate meningitis epidemics in Africa. WHO accepted the challenge and created a project called Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa (EVA) that served as an organizational framework for external consultants, PATH, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Consultations were initiated with major vaccine manufacturers. EVA commissioned a costing study/business plan for the development of new group A or A/C conjugate vaccines and explored the feasibility of developing these products as a public-private partnership. Representatives from African countries were consulted. They confirmed that the development of conjugate vaccines was a priority and provided information on preferred product characteristics. In parallel, a strategy for successful introduction was also anticipated and discussed. The expert consultations recommended that a group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine be developed and introduced into the African meningitis belt. The results of the costing study indicated that the "cost of goods" to develop a group A - containing conjugate vaccine in the United States would be in the range of US$0.35-$1.35 per dose, depending on composition (A vs A/C), number of doses/vials, and presentation. Following an invitation from BMGF, a proposal was submitted in the spring of 2001. In June 2001, BMGF awarded a grant of US$70 million to create the Meningitis

Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Curtis Andrew J

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Results Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level of investigation. Conclusion Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in

Environmental Remediation to Address Childhood Lead Poisoning Epidemic due to Artisanal Gold Mining in Zamfara, Nigeria

OpenAIRE

Tirima, Simba; Bartrem, Casey; von Lindern, Ian; von Braun, Margrit; Lind, Douglas; Anka, Shehu Mohammed; Abdullahi, Aishat

2016-01-01

Background: From 2010 through 2013, integrated health and environmental responses addressed an unprecedented epidemic lead poisoning in Zamfara State, northern Nigeria. Artisanal gold mining caused widespread contamination resulting in the deaths of > 400 children. Socioeconomic, logistic, and security challenges required remediation and medical protocols within the context of local resources, labor practices, and cultural traditions. Objectives: Our aim was to implement emergency environ...

Seeding black holes in cosmological simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, P.; Kobayashi, C.

2014-08-01

We present a new model for the formation of black holes in cosmological simulations, motivated by the first star formation. Black holes form from high density peaks of primordial gas, and grow via both gas accretion and mergers. Massive black holes heat the surrounding material, suppressing star formation at the centres of galaxies, and driving galactic winds. We perform an investigation into the physical effects of the model parameters, and obtain a `best' set of these parameters by comparing the outcome of simulations to observations. With this best set, we successfully reproduce the cosmic star formation rate history, black hole mass-velocity dispersion relation, and the size-velocity dispersion relation of galaxies. The black hole seed mass is ˜103 M⊙, which is orders of magnitude smaller than that which has been used in previous cosmological simulations with active galactic nuclei, but suggests that the origin of the seed black holes is the death of Population III stars.

Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

Ultra-violet B (UVB)-induced skin cell death occurs through a cyclophilin D intrinsic signaling pathway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ji, Chao [Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210024, Jiangsu (China); Yang, Bo [Department of Dermatology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Yang, Zhi; Tu, Ying [Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan Provincial Institute of Dermatology, Kunming 650032, Yunnan (China); Yang, Yan-li [Department of Otorhinolaryngology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210024, Jiangsu (China); He, Li, E-mail: heli2662@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Otorhinolaryngology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210024, Jiangsu (China); Bi, Zhi-Gang, E-mail: eltonbibenqhospital@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Dermatology, BenQ Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210019, Jiangsu (China)

2012-09-07

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer UVB radiated skin keratinocytes show cyclophilin D (Cyp-D) upregulation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer NAC inhibits UVB induced Cyp-D expression, while H{sub 2}O{sub 2} facilitates it. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Cyp-D-deficient cells are significantly less susceptible to UVB induced cell death. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Over-expression of Cyp-D causes spontaneous keratinocytes cell death. -- Abstract: UVB-induced skin cell damage involves the opening of mitochondrial permeability transition pore (mPTP), which leads to both apoptotic and necrotic cell death. Cyclophilin D (Cyp-D) translocation to the inner membrane of mitochondrion acts as a key component to open the mPTP. Our Western-Blot results in primary cultured human skin keratinocytes and in HaCaT cell line demonstrated that UVB radiation and hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}) induced Cyp-D expression, which was inhibited by anti-oxidant N-acetyl cysteine (NAC). We created a stable Cyp-D deficiency skin keratinocytes by expressing Cyp-D-shRNA through lentiviral infection. Cyp-D-deficient cells were significantly less susceptible than their counterparts to UVB- or H{sub 2}O{sub 2}-induced cell death. Further, cyclosporine A (Cs-A), a Cyp-D inhibitor, inhibited UVB- or H{sub 2}O{sub 2}-induced keratinocytes cell death. Reversely, over-expression of Cyp-D in primary keratinocytes caused spontaneous keratinocytes cell death. These results suggest Cyp-D's critical role in UVB/oxidative stress-induced skin cell death.

In vitro sterilization technique on embryo of black Toraja rice

Science.gov (United States)

Haring, F.; Riadi, M.; Rafiuddin; Sjahril, R.; Muchlis, A. R.

2018-05-01

Toraja black rice has a high anthocyanin content, a water-soluble pigments, with antioxidant activity. Toraja black rice has a variety of seeds colour in one panicles such as full black (the outside and inside the rice), medium black (the outside and slightly inside rice) and a little black (only the outside of rice). Embryo culture in vitro is one way to grow plants in sterile conditions. The presence of contamination and the death of the embryo require in vitro embryo culture. The sterilization technique is a very important first step to eliminate contamination and the death of embryos. This research aims to determine the right material composition for sterilization of black rice’s embryo. The experiment was done by growing black rice on half strength MS media with the treatment of three method of sterilization, i.e.: S1 (70% alcohol for 5 minutes, 3% and 2% Chlorox each for 10 minutes,), S2 (70% alcohol for 3 minutes, 2% Clorox for 10 minutes) and S3 (70% alcohol for 3 minutes and 1% Clorox for 15 minutes). The materials used are rice seedlings that have been cut in two and opened the pericarp of paddy grain, leaving a piece of rice that has a complete embryo. The best sterilization for Toraja black rice embryo culture was using the S3 composition. Best germination was seen on the seeds with full and medium black color.

Premature death rates diverge in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

An NCI press release on a study that shows premature death rates have declined in the United States among Hispanics, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders but increased among whites and American Indian/Alaska Natives.

Optimal allocation of the limited oral cholera vaccine supply between endemic and epidemic settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Sean M; Lessler, Justin

2015-10-06

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently established a global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to be preferentially used in epidemic response (reactive campaigns) with any vaccine remaining after 1 year allocated to endemic settings. Hence, the number of cholera cases or deaths prevented in an endemic setting represents the minimum utility of these doses, and the optimal risk-averse response to any reactive vaccination request (i.e. the minimax strategy) is one that allocates the remaining doses between the requested epidemic response and endemic use in order to ensure that at least this minimum utility is achieved. Using mathematical models, we find that the best minimax strategy is to allocate the majority of doses to reactive campaigns, unless the request came late in the targeted epidemic. As vaccine supplies dwindle, the case for reactive use of the remaining doses grows stronger. Our analysis provides a lower bound for the amount of OCV to keep in reserve when responding to any request. These results provide a strategic context for the fulfilment of requests to the stockpile, and define allocation strategies that minimize the number of OCV doses that are allocated to suboptimal situations. © 2015 The Authors.

Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Duong

Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

Star's death and rebirth. White dwarfs, supernovae, pulsars, black holes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otzen Petersen, J [Copenhagen Univ. (Denmark)

1975-01-01

The evolution of a star from a main sequence star of approximately solar mass, first to a red giant, thereafter to a white dwarf is described in detail. The evolution of more massive stars to supernovae, neutron stars and pulsars is then discussed with special reference to the Crab Nebula. Black holes and X-ray sources are also discussed, in this case with reference to the Cygnus X-1 system. In conclusion, it is pointed out that after their active phase white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes may exist as dead bodies in space, and only be observeable through their gravitational fields. It is possible that a great number of such bodies may exist, and contribute to the stability of galaxies, also possibly facilitating the explanation of the galaxies' red shifts by means of simple universe models.

Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

2017-01-01

In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

Science.gov (United States)

Arroz, Jorge Alexandre Harrison

2016-01-01

To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

2009-11-30

The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pretre, S.

1991-01-01

The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

The opioid epidemic and national guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic noncancer pain: a perspective from different continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Häuser, Winfried; Schug, Stephan; Furlan, Andrea D

2017-05-01

A marked rise in opioid prescriptions for patients with chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) with a parallel increase in opioid abuse/misuse, and resulting deaths was noted in the Unites states in the past decade (opioid epidemic). In response, the US Center of Diseases Control (CDC) developed a guideline for prescribing of opioids for patients with CNCP. To assess (1) if there is an opioid epidemic in Australia, Canada, and Germany (2) to compare Australian, Canadian, German, and Center of Diseases Control guidelines recommendations for long-term opioid therapy for CNCP. National evidence-based guidelines and PubMed were searched for recommendations for opioid prescriptions for CNCP. There are signs of an opioid epidemic in Australia and Canada, but not in Germany. Guidelines in all 4 countries provide similar recommendations: opioids are not the first-line therapy for patients with CNCP; regular clinical assessments of benefits and harms are necessary; excessive doses should be avoided (recommended morphine equivalent daily doses range from 50 to 200 mg/d); stopping rules should be followed. All guidelines do not recommend the use of opioids in chronic pain conditions without an established nociceptive or neuropathic cause such as fibromyalgia and primary headache. Implementation of opioid prescribing guidelines should ensure that physicians prescribe opioids only for appropriate indications in limited doses for selected patients and advice patients on their safe use. These measures could contribute to reduce prescription opioid misuse/abuse and deaths.

Cholera in pregnant women: the 2012 epidemic at the reference center at the Donka National Hospital in Conakry.

Science.gov (United States)

Sako, F B; Traoré, F A; Camara, M K; Sylla, M; Bangoura, E F; Baldé, O

2016-05-01

Cholera is an epidemic diarrheal disease transmitted through the digestive tract; it can cause obstetric complications in pregnant women. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic aspects of cholera in pregnant women, as well as its course, during the 2012 epidemic in Conakry. This retrospective, descriptive studied examined the records of this epidemic over a 7-month period (from May 15 to December 15, 2012). Of 2,808 cholera patients at our hospital, 80 were pregnant, that is, 2.85%. Their mean age was 30 years [range: 15-45 years], 94% were from Conakry (94%), and 69% were in the third trimester of pregnancy. Choleriform diarrhea and vomiting were the main signs, found respectively in 100% and 95% of the women; dehydration was mild for 16%, moderate for 45%, and severe for 39%. Support consisted of rehydration, by plans A (16%), B (45%) or C (39%) and antibiotic treatment based on erythromycin (85%), doxycycline (14%), or azithromycin (1%). Other drugs that were used included phloroglucinol-trimethylphloroglucinol (Spasfon(®)) for 45%, acetaminophen for 65%, and iron/folic acid for 1% of cases. The major obstetric complications were 4 intrauterine deaths (5%), 2 cases of threatened abortion (2%), 1 preterm delivery (1%), and 1 maternal death. The cholera outbreak in 2012 affected a large number of pregnant women in Conakry, most during their third trimester. The classic clinical manifestations were associated with obstetric complications and maternal-fetal risks.

Discrepant comorbidity between minority and white suicides: a national multiple cause-of-death analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stack Steven

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinician training deficits and a low and declining autopsy rate adversely impact the quality of death certificates in the United States. Self-report and records data for the general population indicate that proximate mental and physical health of minority suicides was at least as poor as that of white suicides. Methods This cross-sectional mortality study uses data from Multiple Cause-of-Death (MCOD public use files for 1999–2003 to describe and evaluate comorbidity among black, Hispanic, and white suicides. Unintentional injury decedents are the referent for multivariate analyses. Results One or more mentions of comorbid psychopathology are documented on the death certificates of 8% of white male suicides compared to 4% and 3% of black and Hispanic counterparts, respectively. Corresponding female figures are 10%, 8%, and 6%. Racial-ethnic discrepancies in the prevalence of comorbid physical disease are more attenuated. Cross-validation with National Violent Death Reporting System data reveals high relative underenumeration of comorbid depression/mood disorders and high relative overenumeration of schizophrenia on the death certificates of both minorities. In all three racial-ethnic groups, suicide is positively associated with depression/mood disorders [whites: adjusted odds ratio (AOR = 31.9, 95% CI = 29.80–34.13; blacks: AOR = 60.9, 95% CI = 42.80–86.63; Hispanics: AOR = 34.7, 95% CI = 23.36–51.62] and schizophrenia [whites: AOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.07–2.86; blacks: AOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 2.73–6.37; Hispanics: AOR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.01–8.22]. Suicide is positively associated with cancer in whites [AOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.69–1.93] and blacks [AOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.36–2.48], but not with HIV or alcohol and other substance use disorders in any group under review. Conclusion The multivariate analyses indicate high consistency in predicting suicide-associated comorbidities across racial-ethnic groups using MCOD data

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

Mortality among blacks or African Americans with HIV infection--United States, 2008-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqi, Azfar-e-Alam; Hu, Xiaohong; Hall, H Irene

2015-02-06

A primary goal of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy is to reduce HIV-related health disparities, including HIV-related mortality in communities at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. As a group, persons who self-identify as blacks or African Americans (referred to as blacks in this report), have been affected by HIV more than any other racial/ethnic population. Forty-seven percent of persons who received an HIV diagnosis in the United States in 2012 and 43% of all persons living with diagnosed HIV infection in 2011 were black. Blacks also experienced a low 3-year survival rate among persons with HIV infection diagnosed during 2003-2008. CDC and its partners have been pursuing a high-impact prevention approach and supporting projects focusing on minorities to improve diagnosis, linkage to care, and retention in care, and to reduce disparities in HIV-related health outcomes. To measure trends in disparities in mortality among blacks, CDC analyzed data from the National HIV Surveillance System. The results of that analysis indicated that among blacks aged ≥13 years the death rate per 1,000 persons living with diagnosed HIV decreased from 28.4 in 2008 to 20.5 in 2012. Despite this improvement, in 2012 the death rate per 1,000 persons living with HIV among blacks was 13% higher than the rate for whites and 47% higher than the rate for Hispanics or Latinos. These data demonstrate the need for implementation of interventions and public health strategies to further reduce disparities in deaths.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Liu

Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Rebaudet, Stanislas; Mengel, Martin A.; Koivogui, Lamine; Moore, Sandra; Mutreja, Ankur; Kande, Yacouba; Yattara, Ousmane; Sarr Keita, Véronique; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Garnotel, Eric; Keita, Sakoba; Piarroux, Renaud

2014-01-01

Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control

A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-12-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

[Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

Science.gov (United States)

Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

2013-01-01

Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanling Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

Sudden Oak Death - Eastern (Pest Alert)

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph O' Brien; Manfred Mielke; Steve Oak; Bruce Moltzan

2002-01-01

A phenomenon known as Sudden Oak Death was first reported in 1995 in central coastal California. Since then, tens of thousands of tanoaks (Lithocarpus densiflorus), coast live oaks (Quercus agrifolia), and California black oaks (Quercus kelloggii) have been killed by a newly identified fungus, Phytophthora ramorum. On these hosts, the fungus causes a bleeding canker on...

Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

2010-03-01

Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

2014-01-01

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

2014-01-31

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David H Chae

Full Text Available Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the "N-word" in 196 designated market areas (DMAs. Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004-2009. DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001. Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Chae, David H.; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Kramer, Michael R.; Cooper, Hannah L. F.; Wilson, Sacoby M.; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I.; Gold, Robert S.; Link, Bruce G.

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the “N-word” in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004–2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Chae, David H; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Kramer, Michael R; Cooper, Hannah L F; Wilson, Sacoby M; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I; Gold, Robert S; Link, Bruce G

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the "N-word" in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004-2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study contributes to

Temporal correlation between opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia and B.C. heroin deaths: a transoceanic model of heroin death risk.

Science.gov (United States)

McLean, Mark E

2003-01-01

Because heroin supply changes cannot be measured directly, their impact on populations is poorly understood. British Columbia has experienced an injection drug use epidemic since the 1980s that resulted in 2,590 illicit drug deaths from 1990-1999. Since previous work indicates heroin seizures can correlate with supply and B.C. receives heroin only from Southeast Asia, this study examined B.C. heroin deaths against opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia. Opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia and data from two B.C. mortality datasets containing heroin deaths were examined. The Pearson correlation coefficient for seizures against each mortality dataset was determined. Opiate seizures, all illicit drug deaths and all opiate deaths concurrently increased twice and decreased twice from 1989-1999, and all reached new peak values in 1993. Three B.C. sub-regions exhibited illicit drug deaths rate trends concurrent with the three principal datasets studied. The Pearson correlation coefficient for opiate-induced deaths against opiate seizures from 1980-1999 was R=0.915 (popiate seizures from 1987-1999 was R=0.896 (popiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia were very strongly correlated with B.C. opiate and illicit drug deaths. The number of B.C. heroin-related deaths may be strongly linked to heroin supply. Enforcement services are not effective in preventing harm caused by heroin in B.C.; therefore, Canada should examine other methods to prevent harm. The case for harm reduction is strengthened by the ineffectiveness of enforcement and the unlikelihood of imminent eradication of heroin production in Southeast Asia.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

2007-01-01

Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Martino, Suella; Jamme, Mathieu; Deligny, Christophe; Busson, Marc; Loiseau, Pascale; Azoulay, Elie; Galicier, Lionel; Pène, Frédéric; Provôt, François; Dossier, Antoine; Saheb, Samir; Veyradier, Agnès; Coppo, Paul

2016-01-01

Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04). Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03). Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population.

Incubation of Phytophthora ramorum-infested leaf debris in soil affects survival, sporulation capacity, and subsequent risk of epidemic development within nurseries

Science.gov (United States)

Ebba K. Peterson; Niklaus J. Grünwald; Jennifer L. Parke

2017-01-01

Soilborne inoculum (infested leaf debris which has become incorporated into the soil) may be an important contributor to the persistence of the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in recurrently positive nurseries. To initiate new epidemics, soilborne inoculum must not only be able to survive over time, but also be capable of producing...

Human Genetic Variation and Yellow Fever Mortality during 19th Century U.S. Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT We calculated the incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates for Caucasians and non-Caucasians during 19th century yellow fever (YF) epidemics in the United States and determined statistical significance for differences in the rates in different populations. We evaluated nongenetic host factors, including socioeconomic, environmental, cultural, demographic, and acquired immunity status that could have influenced these differences. While differences in incidence rates were not significant between Caucasians and non-Caucasians, differences in mortality and case fatality rates were statistically significant for all epidemics tested (P < 0.01). Caucasians diagnosed with YF were 6.8 times more likely to succumb than non-Caucasians with the disease. No other major causes of death during the 19th century demonstrated a similar mortality skew toward Caucasians. Nongenetic host factors were examined and could not explain these large differences. We propose that the remarkably lower case mortality rates for individuals of non-Caucasian ancestry is the result of human genetic variation in loci encoding innate immune mediators. PMID:24895309

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

2015-11-01

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Dynamics of an epidemic model with quarantine on scale-free networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Huiyan; Liu, Kaihui; Fu, Xinchu

2017-12-01

Quarantine strategies are frequently used to control or reduce the transmission risks of epidemic diseases such as SARS, tuberculosis and cholera. In this paper, we formulate a susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered model on a scale-free network incorporating the births and deaths of individuals. Considering that the infectivity is related to the degrees of infectious nodes, we introduce quarantined rate as a function of degree into the model, and quantify the basic reproduction number, which is shown to be dependent on some parameters, such as quarantined rate, infectivity and network structures. A theoretical result further indicates the heterogeneity of networks and higher infectivity will raise the disease transmission risk while quarantine measure will contribute to the prevention of epidemic spreading. Meanwhile, the contact assumption between susceptibles and infectives may impact the disease transmission. Furthermore, we prove that the basic reproduction number serves as a threshold value for the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria and the uniform persistence of the disease on the network by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Finally, some numerical simulations are illustrated to perform and complement our analytical results.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

2012-03-23

A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

20 CFR 410.471 - Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death. 410.471 Section 410.471 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.471 Conclusion...

Increasing deaths involving oxycodone, Victoria, Australia, 2000-09.

Science.gov (United States)

Rintoul, Angela C; Dobbin, Malcolm D H; Drummer, Olaf H; Ozanne-Smith, Joan

2011-08-01

In light of an emerging epidemic identified in the United States and Canada, to identify trends in fatal drug toxicity involving oxycodone and the demographic characteristics and indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage of the deceased. Population-based observational study in Victoria, Australia. Decedents whose death was reported to the Victorian Coroner between 2000 and 2009 and where oxycodone was detected. Association between supply of oxycodone and deaths. Demographic characteristics of decedents. Rate ratios of the rural or metropolitan location and socioeconomic indicators of disadvantage of the deceased. Supply to Victoria has increased nine-fold from 7.5 mg per capita in 2000 to 67.5 mg per capita in 2009. Detection of oxycodone in deaths reported to the Victorian Coroner has increased from 4 (0.08/100,000 population) in 2000 to 97 (1.78/100,000 population) in 2009-a 21-fold increase in deaths. Of the 320 cases described, 53.8% (172) were the result of drug toxicity. Of these, 52.3% were unintentional and 19.8% intentional self-harm; the remaining 27.9% are either still under investigation by the coroner or intent is unknown. Drug toxicity deaths were overrepresented in both rural areas and areas indexed with high levels of disadvantage. The substantial increase in the number of deaths involving oxycodone is strongly and significantly associated with the increase in supply. Most drug toxicity deaths involving oxycodone were unintentional. This newly identified trend in fatalities in Victoria supports concerns that a pattern of increasing deaths involving oxycodone is emerging globally.

The death of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart: an epidemiologic perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Zegers, Richard H C; Weigl, Andreas; Steptoe, Andrew

2009-08-18

The early death of the composer Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart on 5 December 1791 has fascinated the world for more than 2 centuries. It has been suggested that his final illness was caused by poisoning, renal failure, Henoch-Schönlein purpura, trichinosis, and many other conditions. The official daily register of deaths in Mozart's Vienna was evaluated to provide an epidemiologic framework into which the observations of contemporary witnesses of his death can be integrated. All recorded deaths in Vienna during November and December 1791 and January 1792 were analyzed, together with the corresponding periods in 1790 to 1791 and 1792 to 1793. The deaths of 5011 adults (3442 men, 1569 women) were recorded over these periods. The mean ages of death were 45.5 years (SD, 18.5) for men and 54.5 years (SD, 19.9) for women. Tuberculosis and related conditions accounted for the highest number of deaths; cachexia and malnutrition ranked second, and edema was the third most common cause. According to eyewitness accounts, the hallmark of Mozart's final disease was severe edema. Deaths from edema were markedly increased among younger men in the weeks surrounding Mozart's death compared with the previous and following years. This minor epidemic may have originated in the military hospital. Our analysis is consistent with Mozart's last illness and death being due to a streptococcal infection leading to an acute nephritic syndrome caused by poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis. Scarlet fever, which represents the same underlying disease from an etiologic perspective, is a less likely possibility.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKelvie William R

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Configuring the autism epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

2017-01-01

Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiujuan Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-07-20

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-06-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors.

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Suella Martino

Full Text Available Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP. Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04. Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P < .05 all. Sixty-day overall survival estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the Log-Rank test confirmed that Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03. Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population.

Efavirenz and 8-hydroxyefavirenz induce cell death via a JNK- and BimEL-dependent mechanism in primary human hepatocytes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bumpus, Namandje N., E-mail: nbumpus1@jhmi.edu

2011-12-15

Chronic use of efavirenz (EFV) has been linked to incidences of hepatotoxicity in patients receiving EFV to treat HIV-1. While recent studies have demonstrated that EFV stimulates hepatic cell death a role for the metabolites of efavirenz in this process has yet to be examined. In the present study, incubation of primary human hepatocytes with synthetic 8-hydroxyEFV (8-OHEFV), which is the primary metabolite of EFV, resulted in cell death, caspase-3 activation and reactive oxygen species formation. The metabolite exerted these effects at earlier time points and using lower concentrations than were required for the parent compound. In addition, pharmacological inhibition of cytochrome P450-dependent metabolism of EFV using 1-aminobenzotriazole markedly decreased reactive oxygen species formation and cell death. Treatment of primary human hepatocytes with EFV and 8-OHEFV also stimulated phosphorylation of c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) as well as phosphorylation of the JNK substrate c-Jun. Further, the mRNA and protein expression of an isoform of Bim (Bcl-2 interacting mediator of cell death) denoted as BimEL, which is proapoptotic and has been shown to be modulated by JNK, was increased. Inhibition of JNK using SP600125 prevented the EFV- and 8-OHEFV-mediated cell death. Silencing of Bim using siRNA transfected into hepatocytes also prevented cell death resulting from 8-OHEFV-treatment. These data suggest that the oxidative metabolite 8-OHEFV is a more potent inducer of hepatic cell death than the parent compound EFV. Further, activation of the JNK signaling pathway and BimEL mRNA expression appear to be required for EFV- and 8-OHEFV-mediated hepatocyte death. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer 8-Hydroxyefavirenz is a more potent stimulator of cell death than efavirenz. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Efavirenz and 8-hydroxyefavirenz increase JNK activity and BimEL mRNA expression. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer JNK and Bim are required for efavirenz- and 8

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

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Vlad Novitsky

2015-12-01

Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

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Wang Wei

Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

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Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

Black holes, white dwarfs and neutron stars: The physics of compact objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapiro, S.L.; Teukolsky, S.A.

1983-01-01

The contents include: Star deaths and the formation of compact objects; White dwarfs; Rotation and magnetic fields; Cold equation of state above neutron drip; Pulsars; Accretion onto black holes; Supermassive stars and black holes; Appendices; and Indexes. This book discusses one aspect, compact objects, of astronomy and provides information of astrophysics or general relativity

Medical and Indirect Costs Associated with a Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Epidemic in Arizona, 2002–2011

Science.gov (United States)

Drexler, Naomi A.; Traeger, Marc S.; McQuiston, Jennifer H.; Williams, Velda; Hamilton, Charlene; Regan, Joanna J.

2015-01-01

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an emerging public health issue on some American Indian reservations in Arizona. RMSF causes an acute febrile illness that, if untreated, can cause severe illness, permanent sequelae requiring lifelong medical support, and death. We describe costs associated with medical care, loss of productivity, and death among cases of RMSF on two American Indian reservations (estimated population 20,000) between 2002 and 2011. Acute medical costs totaled more than $1.3 million. This study further estimated $181,100 in acute productivity lost due to illness, and $11.6 million in lifetime productivity lost from premature death. Aggregate costs of RMSF cases in Arizona 2002–2011 amounted to $13.2 million. We believe this to be a significant underestimate of the cost of the epidemic, but it underlines the severity of the disease and need for a more comprehensive study. PMID:26033020

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

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Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Medical and Indirect Costs Associated with a Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Epidemic in Arizona, 2002-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Drexler, Naomi A; Traeger, Marc S; McQuiston, Jennifer H; Williams, Velda; Hamilton, Charlene; Regan, Joanna J

2015-09-01

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an emerging public health issue on some American Indian reservations in Arizona. RMSF causes an acute febrile illness that, if untreated, can cause severe illness, permanent sequelae requiring lifelong medical support, and death. We describe costs associated with medical care, loss of productivity, and death among cases of RMSF on two American Indian reservations (estimated population 20,000) between 2002 and 2011. Acute medical costs totaled more than $1.3 million. This study further estimated $181,100 in acute productivity lost due to illness, and $11.6 million in lifetime productivity lost from premature death. Aggregate costs of RMSF cases in Arizona 2002-2011 amounted to $13.2 million. We believe this to be a significant underestimate of the cost of the epidemic, but it underlines the severity of the disease and need for a more comprehensive study. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

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Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

2005-02-01

Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

Upper Neogene stratigraphy and tectonics of Death Valley — a review

Science.gov (United States)

Knott, J. R.; Sarna-Wojcicki, A. M.; Machette, M. N.; Klinger, R. E.

2005-12-01

New tephrochronologic, soil-stratigraphic and radiometric-dating studies over the last 10 years have generated a robust numerical stratigraphy for Upper Neogene sedimentary deposits throughout Death Valley. Critical to this improved stratigraphy are correlated or radiometrically-dated tephra beds and tuffs that range in age from > 3.58 Ma to Mormon Point. This new geochronology also establishes maximum and minimum ages for Quaternary alluvial fans and Lake Manly deposits. Facies associated with the tephra beds show that ˜3.3 Ma the Furnace Creek basin was a northwest-southeast-trending lake flanked by alluvial fans. This paleolake extended from the Furnace Creek to Ubehebe. Based on the new stratigraphy, the Death Valley fault system can be divided into four main fault zones: the dextral, Quaternary-age Northern Death Valley fault zone; the dextral, pre-Quaternary Furnace Creek fault zone; the oblique-normal Black Mountains fault zone; and the dextral Southern Death Valley fault zone. Post - 3.3 Ma geometric, structural, and kinematic changes in the Black Mountains and Towne Pass fault zones led to the break up of Furnace Creek basin and uplift of the Copper Canyon and Nova basins. Internal kinematics of northern Death Valley are interpreted as either rotation of blocks or normal slip along the northeast-southwest-trending Towne Pass and Tin Mountain fault zones within the Eastern California shear zone.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

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Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

Black/white differences in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates among New York City hospitals.

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Howell, Elizabeth A; Hebert, Paul; Chatterjee, Samprit; Kleinman, Lawrence C; Chassin, Mark R

2008-03-01

We sought to determine whether differences in the hospitals at which black and white infants are born contribute to black/white disparities in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates in New York City. We performed a population-based cohort study using New York City vital statistics records on all live births and deaths of infants weighing 500 to 1499 g who were born in 45 hospitals between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001 (N = 11 781). We measured very low birth weight risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates for each New York City hospital and assessed differences in the distributions of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white very low birth weight births among these hospitals. Risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates for very low birth weight infants in New York City hospitals ranged from 9.6 to 27.2 deaths per 1000 births. White very low birth weight infants were more likely to be born in the lowest mortality tertile of hospitals (49%), compared with black very low birth weight infants (29%). We estimated that, if black women delivered in the same hospitals as white women, then black very low birth weight mortality rates would be reduced by 6.7 deaths per 1000 very low birth weight births, removing 34.5% of the black/white disparity in very low birth weight neonatal mortality rates in New York City. Volume of very low birth weight deliveries was modestly associated with very low birth weight mortality rates but explained little of the racial disparity. Black very low birth weight infants more likely to be born in New York City hospitals with higher risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates than were very low birth weight infants, contributing substantially to black-white disparities.

The black Arab as a substitution for sin and guilt

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Petrović Radmilo

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The figure of the Black Arab as a form of guilt and sin is a well-established memorial pattern throughout the Mediterranean world, having already existed for more than 3000 years. This text is focused on two different types of interpretation of the Black Stone and its semantic relation with the symbolized figure of Black Arab in the oral traditions of Mediterranean peoples - Jewish religion and Islamic eschatology. The transformation of the signification of the Black Stone was transferred to the Islamic religion in the act of pilgrimage. The Jewish practice of transferring sin and guilt is related with the Iranian-Manichean Ahura Mazda-Ahriman, and the ancient Greek goddess Hecate. All manifestations of the Black Arab left a deep trace on Slavic spiritual life through the Slavic gods Chernobog, Triglav and Toyan and consequently on the deeply rooted conception of all Slavic peoples that the Black Arab was a black demon of death and the underworld.

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

Sudden oak death disease progression in oaks and tanoaks

Science.gov (United States)

Brice A. McPherson; Sylvia R. Mori; David L. Wood; Andrew J. Storer; Pavel Svihra; N. Maggi Kelly; Richard B. Standiford

2006-01-01

In March 2000, we established twenty disease progression plots in Marin County to monitor the progress of sudden oak death symptoms in coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), California black oak (Q. kelloggii), and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) (McPherson and others 2005). Plots were located to encompass a...

Going up or coming down? The changing phases of the lung cancer epidemic from 1967 to 1999 in the 15 European Union countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, F; Tyczynski, J E; Parkin, D M

2004-01-01

Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer death in the European Union (EU), continues to have an enormous impact on the health experience of the men and women living in the constituent countries. Information on the course of the lung cancer epidemic is essential in order to formulate an effective cancer control policy. This paper examines recent trends in lung cancer mortality rates in men and women in each of the 15 countries, comparing cross-sectional rates of death in younger (aged 30-64 years) and older populations (aged 65 years or over), and the age, period of death, and birth cohort influences in the younger age group. The latter analysis establishes the importance of year of birth, related to modifications in the tobacco habit among recently born generations. The stage of evolution of the lung cancer epidemic varies markedly by sex and country in terms of the direction, magnitude, and phase of development of national trends. In males, there is some consistency in the direction of the trends between EU countries, declines are apparent in most countries, at least in younger men, with rates in older men either reaching a plateau, or also falling. In younger persons, a decreasing risk of lung cancer death reflects changes in successive birth cohorts, due to modifications in the smoking habit from generation to generation, although these developments are in very different phases across countries. Portugal is the exception to the male trends; there are increases in mortality in both age groups, with little sign of a slowing down by birth cohort. In women, there are unambiguous upsurges in rates seen in younger and older women in almost all EU countries in recent decades, and little sign that the epidemic has or will soon reach a peak. The exceptions are the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland, where lung cancer death rates are now declining in younger women and stabilising in older women, reflecting a declining risk in women born since about 1950. It is too early

Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

2016-07-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Xiao-Pu

2007-01-01

Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

2010-01-01

The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

Science.gov (United States)

Bollet, A. J.

1992-01-01

The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored. PMID:1285449

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brauer Fred

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

Factors related to shell deaths during artificial incubation of ostrich eggs

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Z. Brand

2007-06-01

Full Text Available he ostrich industry experiences a high rate of embryonic mortalities during artificial incubation of eggs. Embryonic deaths were studied from data recorded on 37 740 fertile eggs incubated artificially during the 1998-2005 breeding seasons. Roughly 10 000 eggs that sustained embryonic mortalities were classified according to the stage and nature of death, i.e. before 21 days of incubation, after 21 days of incubation, deaths after pipping and rotten eggs. Although infection may have played a role in ~1300 rotten eggs, no detailed knowledge of the pathogens involved was available. The remainder of deaths could not be related to pathogens and the deaths were thus generally referred to as non-infectious. The overall level of embryonic mortality in all the eggs studied was 28.5 %. Overall embryonic mortality was affected by incubator, with higher levels (57.0 % found in eggs incubated in an African Incubator(R and also in eggs that were transferred between incubators during incubation (38.1 %. Overall embryonic mortality also increased in eggs produced by older females. Eggs produced in the autumn had the highest level of embryonic mortality at 53.6 %, whereas eggs produced in the winter had a marginally higher level of embryonic mortalities of 29.2 % compared with eggs produced during summer (27.4 %. Eggs produced by South African (SA Black males crossed to Zimbabwean Blue females had high levels of embryonic losses of 45.7 %. The embryonic mortality of eggs produced by SA Blacks or Zimbabwean Blue breeding birds subjected to pure breeding was similar at ~33-34 %, but embryonic mortality was improved in eggs produced by Zimbabwean Blue males crossed to SA Black females (27 %. Embryonic mortality was increased in eggs that were set directly (32.0 % or subjected to longer than 6 days of storage (43.5 %. Embryonic mortality was affected by year. The results that were obtained will assist in determining non-infectious factors that have a negative

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

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Shu Yang

Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A Irvine, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: Background: Illicit use of high-potency synthetic opioids has become a global issue over the past decade. This misuse is particularly pronounced in British Columbia, Canada, where a rapid increase in availability of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids in the local illicit drug supply during 2016 led to a substantial increase in overdoses and deaths. In response, distribution of take-home naloxone (THN overdose prevention kits was scaled up (6·4-fold increase throughout the province. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the THN programme in terms of the number of deaths averted over the study period. Methods: We estimated the impact of THN kits on the ongoing epidemic among people who use illicit opioids in British Columbia and explored counterfactual scenarios for the provincial response. A Markov chain model was constructed explicitly including opioid-related deaths, fentanyl-related deaths, ambulance-attended overdoses, and uses of THN kits. The model was calibrated in a Bayesian framework incorporating population data between Jan 1, 2012, and Oct 31, 2016. Findings: 22 499 ambulance-attended overdoses and 2121 illicit drug-related deaths (677 [32%] deaths related to fentanyl were recorded in the study period, mostly since January, 2016. In the same period, 19 074 THN kits were distributed. We estimate that 298 deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 91–474 were averted by the THN programme. Of these deaths, 226 (95% CrI 125–340 were averted in 2016, following a rapid scale-up in distribution of kits. We infer a rapid increase in fentanyl adulterant at the beginning of 2016, with an estimated 2·3 times (95% CrI 2·0–2·9 increase from 2015 to 2016. Counterfactual modelling indicated that an earlier scale-up of the programme would have averted an additional 118 deaths (95% CrI 64–207. Our model also indicated that the increase in deaths could parsimoniously be explained through a change in the fentanyl

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-08

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-01

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raffaele Vardavas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

Structured Discretion, Racial Bias, and the Death Penalty: The First Decade after "Furman" in Texas.

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Ekland-Olson, Sheldon

1988-01-01

Analyzes data collected in Texas from the first decade of cases sentenced to death after the Furman v. Georgia decision in order to determine any tendency toward being race-linked or victim-based. Found that cases involving White victims more often precipitate the death penalty than those involving Black or Hispanic victims. (KO)

Widening rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from major causes of death in the USA, 1969-2009.

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Singh, Gopal K; Siahpush, Mohammad

2014-04-01

This study examined trends in rural-urban disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA between 1969 and 2009. A rural-urban continuum measure was linked to county-level mortality data. Age-adjusted death rates were calculated by sex, race, cause-of-death, area-poverty, and urbanization level for 13 time periods between 1969 and 2009. Cause-of-death decomposition and log-linear and Poisson regression were used to analyze rural-urban differentials. Mortality rates increased with increasing levels of rurality overall and for non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Despite the declining mortality trends, mortality risks for both males and females and for blacks and whites have been increasingly higher in non-metropolitan than metropolitan areas, particularly since 1990. In 2005-2009, mortality rates varied from 391.9 per 100,000 population for Asians/Pacific Islanders in rural areas to 1,063.2 for blacks in small-urban towns. Poverty gradients were steeper in rural areas, which maintained higher mortality than urban areas after adjustment for poverty level. Poor blacks in non-metropolitan areas experienced two to three times higher all-cause and premature mortality risks than affluent blacks and whites in metropolitan areas. Disparities widened over time; excess mortality from all causes combined and from several major causes of death in non-metropolitan areas was greater in 2005-2009 than in 1990-1992. Causes of death contributing most to the increasing rural-urban disparity and higher rural mortality include heart disease, unintentional injuries, COPD, lung cancer, stroke, suicide, diabetes, nephritis, pneumonia/influenza, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease. Residents in metropolitan areas experienced larger mortality reductions during the past four decades than non-metropolitan residents, contributing to the widening gap.

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyerly, W H

1996-01-01

Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

Epidemic threshold in directed networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

2013-12-01

Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

Infant and child deaths: Parent concerns about subsequent pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooten, Dorothy; Youngblut, JoAnne M; Hannan, Jean; Caicedo, Carmen; Roche, Rosa; Malkawi, Fatima

2015-12-01

Examine parents' concerns about subsequent pregnancies after experiencing an infant or child death (newborn to 18 years). Thirty-nine semistructured parent (white, black, Hispanic) interviews 7 and 13 months post infant/child death conducted in English and/or Spanish, audio-recorded, transcribed, and content analyzed. Mothers' mean age was 31.8 years, fathers' was 39 years; 11 parents were white, 16 black, and 12 Hispanic. Themes common at 7 and 13 months: wanting more children; fear, anxiety, scared; praying to God/God's will; thinking about/keeping the infant's/child's memory and at 7 months importance of becoming pregnant for family members; and at 13 months happy about a new baby. Parents who lost a child in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) commented more than those who lost a child in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Black and Hispanic parents commented more on praying to God and subsequent pregnancies being God's will than white parents. Loss of an infant/child is a significant stressor on parents with documented negative physical and mental health outcomes. Assessing parents' subsequent pregnancy plans, recognizing the legitimacy of their fears about another pregnancy, discussing a plan should they encounter problems, and carefully monitoring the health of all parents who lost an infant/child is an essential practitioner role. ©2015 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

2013-01-01

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

2014-11-13

Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

OpenAIRE

Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

2017-01-01

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

Common roots: a contextual review of HIV epidemics in black men who have sex with men across the African diaspora.

Science.gov (United States)

Millett, Gregorio A; Jeffries, William L; Peterson, John L; Malebranche, David J; Lane, Tim; Flores, Stephen A; Fenton, Kevin A; Wilson, Patrick A; Steiner, Riley; Heilig, Charles M

2012-07-28

Pooled estimates from across the African diaspora show that black men who have sex with men (MSM) are 15 times more likely to be HIV positive compared with general populations and 8·5 times more likely compared with black populations. Disparities in the prevalence of HIV infection are greater in African and Caribbean countries that criminalise homosexual activity than in those that do not criminalise such behaviour. With the exception of US and African epidemiological studies, most studies of black MSM mainly focus on outcomes associated with HIV behavioural risk rather than on prevalence, incidence, or undiagnosed infection. Nevertheless, black MSM across the African diaspora share common experiences such as discrimination, cultural norms valuing masculinity, concerns about confidentiality during HIV testing or treatment, low access to HIV drugs, threats of violence or incarceration, and few targeted HIV prevention resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

2016-01-01

The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

Cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau (2008: the importance of "place".

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco J Luquero

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: As resources are limited when responding to cholera outbreaks, knowledge about where to orient interventions is crucial. We describe the cholera epidemic affecting Guinea-Bissau in 2008 focusing on the geographical spread in order to guide prevention and control activities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted two studies: 1 a descriptive analysis of the cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau focusing on its geographical spread (country level and within the capital; and 2 a cross-sectional study to measure the prevalence of houses with at least one cholera case in the most affected neighbourhood of the capital (Bairro Bandim to detect clustering of households with cases (cluster analysis. All cholera cases attending the cholera treatment centres in Guinea-Bissau who fulfilled a modified World Health Organization clinical case definition during the epidemic were included in the descriptive study. For the cluster analysis, a sample of houses was selected from a satellite photo (Google Earth™; 140 houses (and the four closest houses were assessed from the 2,202 identified structures. We applied K-functions and Kernel smoothing to detect clustering. We confirmed the clustering using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. A total of 14,222 cases and 225 deaths were reported in the country (AR = 0.94%, CFR = 1.64%. The more affected regions were Biombo, Bijagos and Bissau (the capital. Bairro Bandim was the most affected neighborhood of the capital (AR = 4.0. We found at least one case in 22.7% of the houses (95%CI: 19.5-26.2 in this neighborhood. The cluster analysis identified two areas within Bairro Bandim at highest risk: a market and an intersection where runoff accumulates waste (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis allowed for the identification of the most affected regions in Guinea-Bissau during the 2008 cholera outbreak, and the most affected areas within the capital. This information was essential for making

Cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau (2008): the importance of "place".

Science.gov (United States)

Luquero, Francisco J; Banga, Cunhate Na; Remartínez, Daniel; Palma, Pedro Pablo; Baron, Emanuel; Grais, Rebeca F

2011-05-04

As resources are limited when responding to cholera outbreaks, knowledge about where to orient interventions is crucial. We describe the cholera epidemic affecting Guinea-Bissau in 2008 focusing on the geographical spread in order to guide prevention and control activities. We conducted two studies: 1) a descriptive analysis of the cholera epidemic in Guinea-Bissau focusing on its geographical spread (country level and within the capital); and 2) a cross-sectional study to measure the prevalence of houses with at least one cholera case in the most affected neighbourhood of the capital (Bairro Bandim) to detect clustering of households with cases (cluster analysis). All cholera cases attending the cholera treatment centres in Guinea-Bissau who fulfilled a modified World Health Organization clinical case definition during the epidemic were included in the descriptive study. For the cluster analysis, a sample of houses was selected from a satellite photo (Google Earth™); 140 houses (and the four closest houses) were assessed from the 2,202 identified structures. We applied K-functions and Kernel smoothing to detect clustering. We confirmed the clustering using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. A total of 14,222 cases and 225 deaths were reported in the country (AR = 0.94%, CFR = 1.64%). The more affected regions were Biombo, Bijagos and Bissau (the capital). Bairro Bandim was the most affected neighborhood of the capital (AR = 4.0). We found at least one case in 22.7% of the houses (95%CI: 19.5-26.2) in this neighborhood. The cluster analysis identified two areas within Bairro Bandim at highest risk: a market and an intersection where runoff accumulates waste (p<0.001). Our analysis allowed for the identification of the most affected regions in Guinea-Bissau during the 2008 cholera outbreak, and the most affected areas within the capital. This information was essential for making decisions on where to reinforce treatment and to guide control and prevention

Visible and Invisible Trends in Black Men's Health: Pitfalls and Promises for Addressing Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Inequities in Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Keon L; Ray, Rashawn; Siddiqi, Arjumand; Shetty, Shivan; Baker, Elizabeth A; Elder, Keith; Griffith, Derek M

2016-01-01

Over the past two decades, there has been growing interest in improving black men's health and the health disparities affecting them. Yet, the health of black men consistently ranks lowest across nearly all groups in the United States. Evidence on the health and social causes of morbidity and mortality among black men has been narrowly concentrated on public health problems (e.g., violence, prostate cancer, and HIV/AIDS) and determinants of health (e.g., education and male gender socialization). This limited focus omits age-specific leading causes of death and other social determinants of health, such as discrimination, segregation, access to health care, employment, and income. This review discusses the leading causes of death for black men and the associated risk factors, as well as identifies gaps in the literature and presents a racialized and gendered framework to guide efforts to address the persistent inequities in health affecting black men.

Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

Lupus - An Unrecognized Leading Cause of Death in Young Women: Population-based Study Using Nationwide Death Certificates, 2000-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Eric Y; Singh, Ram R

2018-04-18

Mortality statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is used for planning healthcare policy and allocating resources. CDC uses this data to compile its annual leading-causes-of-death ranking based on a selected list of 113 causes. SLE is not included on this list. Since the cause-of-death ranking is a useful tool for assessing the relative burden of cause-specific mortality, we ranked SLE deaths among CDC's leading causes-of-death to see whether SLE is a significant cause of death among women. Death counts were obtained from the CDC's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database in U.S. female population, and then grouped by age and race/ethnicity. Data on the leading causes-of-death were obtained from the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System database. During 2000 to 2015, there were 28,411 female deaths with SLE recorded as the underlying or contributing causes of death. SLE ranked among the top 20 leading-causes-of-death in females between 5 and 64 years of age. SLE ranked 10 th in the 15-24 years, 14 th in the 25-34 and the 35-44 years, and 15 th in the 10-14 years age groups. Among black and Hispanic females, SLE ranked 5 th in the 15-24 years, 6 th in the 25-34 years, and 8 th -9 th in the 35-44 years age groups, after excluding the three common external injury causes of death from analysis. SLE is among the leading-causes-of-death in young women, underscoring its impact as an important public health issue. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne T A Enanoria

Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong

2018-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

Black to Black

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Langkjær, Michael Alexander

2012-01-01

Pop musicians performing in black stage costume take advantage of cultural traditions relating to matters black. Stylistically, black is a paradoxical color: although a symbol of melancholy, pessimism, and renunciation, black also expresses minimalist modernity and signifies exclusivity (as is hi...

Black esophagus: exploring the dark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Forster

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Black esophagus is a rare but underdiagnosed disease. It occurs most frequently in severely ill patients and carries a high mortality rate. Cause of death is usually attributed to the comorbid conditions. Treatment is directed at the underlying cause, acid suppression and keeping the patient nil-per-os. Surgery is needed in complicated cases and stenosis is the most feared longterm sequel. In the present article, two cases are described and literature is reviewed.

The Obesity Epidemic

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2011-07-18

Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Stakeholder conceptualisation of multi-level HIV and AIDS determinants in a Black epicentre.

Science.gov (United States)

Brawner, Bridgette M; Reason, Janaiya L; Hanlon, Kelsey; Guthrie, Barbara; Schensul, Jean J

2017-09-01

HIV has reached epidemic proportions among African Americans in the USA but certain urban contexts appear to experience a disproportionate disease burden. Geographic information systems mapping in Philadelphia indicates increased HIV incidence and prevalence in predominantly Black census tracts, with major differences across adjacent communities. What factors shape these geographic HIV disparities among Black Philadelphians? This descriptive study was designed to refine and validate a conceptual model developed to better understand multi-level determinants of HIV-related risk among Black Philadelphians. We used an expanded ecological approach to elicit reflective perceptions from administrators, direct service providers and community members about individual, social and structural factors that interact to protect against or increase the risk for acquiring HIV within their community. Gender equity, social capital and positive cultural mores (e.g., monogamy, abstinence) were seen as the main protective factors. Historical negative contributory influences of racial residential segregation, poverty and incarceration were among the most salient risk factors. This study was a critical next step toward initiating theory-based, multi-level community-based HIV prevention initiatives.

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

2009-03-01

We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Eames, K T D

2014-09-01

The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

2017-01-01

Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

Mitosis and cell death in the optic lobes of workers, queens and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Prakash

of white, pink, brown and black eyes, and the beginning of tegument ... Our purpose was to investigate cell division and death in the optic lobes (OL) of workers, queens and males during ... new ones in each caste and sex. Nevertheless, most ...

Deaths related to lead poisoning in the United States, 1979-1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, R.B.; Staes, Catherine J.; Matte, Thomas D.

2003-01-01

This study was conducted to describe trends in US lead poisoning-relate deaths between 1979 and 1998. The predictive value of relevant ICD-9 codes was also evaluated. Multiple cause-of-death files were searched for record containing relevant ICD-9 codes, and underlying causes and demographic characteristics were assessed. For 1979-1988, death certificates were reviewed; lead source information was abstracted and accuracy of coding was determined. An estimated 200 lead poisoning-related deaths occurred from 1979 to 1998. Most were among males (74%), Blacks (67%), adults of age ≥45 years (76%), and Southerners (70%). The death rate was significantly lower in more recent years. An alcohol-related code was a contributing cause for 28% of adults. Only three of nine ICD-9 codes for lead poisoning were highl predictive of lead poisoning-related deaths. In conclusion, lead poisoning-related death rates have dropped dramatically since earlier decades and are continuing to decline. However, the findings imply that moonshine ingestion remains a source of high-dose lead exposure in adults

Differences in Poisoning Mortality in the United States, 2003–2007: Epidemiology of Poisoning Deaths Classified as Unintentional, Suicide or Homicide

Science.gov (United States)

Muazzam, Sana; Swahn, Monica H.; Alamgir, Hasanat; Nasrullah, Muazzam

2012-01-01

Introduction Poisoning, specifically unintentional poisoning, is a major public health problem in the United States (U.S.). Published literature that presents epidemiology of all forms of poisoning mortalities (i.e., unintentional, suicide, homicide) together is limited. This report presents data and summarizes the evidence on poisoning mortality by demographic and geographic characteristics to describe the burden of poisoning mortality and the differences among sub-populations in the U.S. for a 5-year period. Methods Using mortality data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, we presented the age-specific and age-adjusted unintentional and intentional (suicide, homicide) poisoning mortality rates by sex, age, race, and state of residence for the most recent years (2003–2007) of available data. Annual percentage changes in deaths and rates were calculated, and linear regression using natural log were used for time-trend analysis. Results There were 121,367 (rate=8.18 per 100,000) unintentional poisoning deaths. Overall, the unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased by 46.9%, from 6.7 per 100,000 in 2003 to 9.8 per100.000 in 2007, with the highest mortality rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=15.36), males (rate=11.02) and whites (rate=8.68). New Mexico (rate=18.2) had the highest rate. Unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased significantly among both sexes, and all racial groups except blacks (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). Among a total of 29,469 (rate=1.97) suicidal poisoning deaths, the rate increased by 9.9%, from 1.9 per 100,000 in 2003 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2007, with the highest rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=3.92), males (rate=2.20) and whites (rate=2.24). Nevada (rate=3.9) had the highest rate. Mortality rate increased significantly among females and whites only (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). There were 463 (rate=0.03) homicidal poisoning deaths and the

The development of SisterTalk: a cable TV-delivered weight control program for black women.

Science.gov (United States)

Gans, Kim M; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Lovell, H Joan; Risica, Patricia M; Goldman, Roberta; Odoms-Young, Angela; Strolla, Leslie O; Decaille, Donna O; Caron, Colleen; Lasater, Thomas M

2003-12-01

Overweight and obesity have reached epidemic proportions in the United States, with black women disproportionately affected. SisterTalk is a weight control program designed specifically for delivery to black women via cable TV. The theoretical and conceptual frameworks and formative research that guided the development and cultural tailoring of SisterTalk are described. Social Action Theory was applied in the development of SisterTalk along with a detailed behavioral analysis of the way that black women view weight and weight loss within the context of their cultural and social realities. The entire intervention development process was framed using this information, rather than by changing only superficial aspects of program delivery. Community networking and both qualitative and quantitative interview techniques from the fields of social marketing and cultural anthropology were used to involve black women from Boston in the design and implementation of a program that would be practical, appealing, and culturally sensitive. Also discussed are strategies for evaluating the program, and lessons learned that might have broader applicability are highlighted. The development of the SisterTalk program could provide a useful starting point for development of successful weight control programs for black women in other parts of the United States as well as for other ethnic and racial groups.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ángel G. Muñoz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

epidemic teach us?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-20

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

2015-11-01

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

1994-01-01

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

What is in a label? Multiple meanings of 'MSM' among same-gender-loving Black men in Mississippi.

Science.gov (United States)

Truong, Nhan; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Burton, Melissa; Gipson, June; Hickson, DeMarc

2016-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) and other same-gender-loving (SGL) men continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV and AIDS, particularly among the Black population. Innovative strategies are needed to support the health of this community; however, public health efforts primarily approach MSM as a monolithic population erasing the diverse identities, practices, and sexualities within and beyond this category. To better understand diversity within MSM in a geographic region with the largest proportion of Black Americans in the U.S.A. and among the most heavily affected by the epidemic, the Deep South, we conducted four focus groups (n = 29) with Black men who reported having sex with other men residing in Jackson, Mississippi. Results suggest multiple overlapping usages of MSM as identity and behaviour, reflecting internalisation of behavioural categories and co-creation of identities unique to the Black community. These narratives contribute to the literature by documenting the evolving understandings of the category 'MSM' among Black men to reflect intersections between race, socioeconomic status, sexual behaviour, sexuality, subjectivities, and social context. Findings suggest the current monolithic approach to treating MSM may limit public health efforts in developing effective HIV prevention and promotion programmes targeting SGL Black men in the Deep South.

2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Granel, Estelle

2006-01-01

The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

Science.gov (United States)

Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

2008-01-01

We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

2016-09-01

In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyle Fearnley

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

#BlackLivesMatter: A Call for Transformative Leadership

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Terri N.; Rivera-McCutchen, Rosa L.

2016-01-01

Michael Pelligrino is a novice principal in a large urban high school. After a rocky yet somewhat successful first year as the principal of Hilltop High School, tensions in the school and surrounding community are at an all-time high. The deaths of unarmed Black men, women, and children by law enforcement agents nationwide have led hundreds of…

Increasing Sex Mortality Differentials among Black Americans, 1950-1978.

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ellen M.; Veevers, Jean E.

1985-01-01

In regard to sex differentials in mortality among Blacks, explores (1) age groups responsible for increasing the differential, (2) causes of death that have contributed to the increased differential, and (3) whether the phenomenon derives from decreased female mortality, increased male mortality, or both rates moving in the same direction at…

How to Build a Supermassive Black Hole

Science.gov (United States)

Wanjek, Christopher

2003-01-01

NASA astronomer Kim Weaver has got that sinking feeling. You know, it's that unsettling notion you get when you sift through your X-ray data and, to your surprise, find mid-sized black holes sinking toward the center of a galaxy, where they merge with others to form a single supermassive black hole. Could such a thing be true? These would be the largest mergers since America On Line bought Time-Warner, and perhaps even more violent. The process would turn a starburst galaxy inside out, making it more like a quasar host galaxy. Using the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, Weaver saw a hint of this fantastic process in a relatively nearby starburst galaxy named NGC 253 in the constellation Sculptor. She noticed that starburst galaxies - those gems set aglow in a colorful life cycle of hyperactive star birth, death, and renewal - seem to have a higher concentration of mid-mass black holes compared to other galaxies.

A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stéfan Tzortzis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

76 FR 48808 - Black & Decker (U.S.) Inc., Provisional Acceptance of a Settlement Agreement and Order

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-09

... & Decker (U.S.) Inc., containing a civil penalty of $960,000.00. DATES: Any interested person may ask the...-2089. (3) Black & Decker is a corporation organized and existing under the laws of the State of... or death on or before May 1, 2006, Black & Decker failed to immediately inform the Commission of such...

[Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

Science.gov (United States)

Frøland, Anders

2015-01-01

The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2015-01-01

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

Using poison center exposure calls to predict methadone poisoning deaths.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nabarun Dasgupta

Full Text Available PURPOSE: There are more drug overdose deaths in the Untied States than motor vehicle fatalities. Yet the US vital statistics reporting system is of limited value because the data are delayed by four years. Poison centers report data within an hour of the event, but previous studies suggested a small proportion of poisoning deaths are reported to poison centers (PC. In an era of improved electronic surveillance capabilities, exposure calls to PCs may be an alternate indicator of trends in overdose mortality. METHODS: We used PC call counts for methadone that were reported to the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS® System in 2006 and 2007. US death certificate data were used to identify deaths due to methadone. Linear regression was used to quantify the relationship of deaths and poison center calls. RESULTS: Compared to decedents, poison center callers tended to be younger, more often female, at home and less likely to require medical attention. A strong association was found with PC calls and methadone mortality (b=0.88, se=0.42, t=9.5, df=1, p<0.0001, R(2 =0.77. These findings were robust to large changes in a sensitivity analysis assessing the impact of underreporting of methadone overdose deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that calls to poison centers for methadone are correlated with poisoning mortality as identified on death certificates. Calls received by poison centers may be used for timely surveillance of mortality due to methadone. In the midst of the prescription opioid overdose epidemic, electronic surveillance tools that report in real-time are powerful public health tools.

Camphor--a fumigant during the Black Death and a coveted fragrant wood in ancient Egypt and Babylon--a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Weiyang; Vermaak, Ilze; Viljoen, Alvaro

2013-05-10

The fragrant camphor tree (Cinnamomum camphora) and its products, such as camphor oil, have been coveted since ancient times. Having a rich history of traditional use, it was particularly used as a fumigant during the era of the Black Death and considered as a valuable ingredient in both perfume and embalming fluid. Camphor has been widely used as a fragrance in cosmetics, as a food flavourant, as a common ingredient in household cleaners, as well as in topically applied analgesics and rubefacients for the treatment of minor muscle aches and pains. Camphor, traditionally obtained through the distillation of the wood of the camphor tree, is a major essential oil component of many aromatic plant species, as it is biosynthetically synthesised; it can also be chemically synthesised using mainly turpentine as a starting material. Camphor exhibits a number of biological properties such as insecticidal, antimicrobial, antiviral, anticoccidial, anti-nociceptive, anticancer and antitussive activities, in addition to its use as a skin penetration enhancer. However, camphor is a very toxic substance and numerous cases of camphor poisoning have been documented. This review briefly summarises the uses and synthesis of camphor and discusses the biological properties and toxicity of this valuable molecule.

Barriers to HIV testing for migrant black Africans in Western Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Fakoya, I; Reynolds, R; Caswell, G; Shiripinda, I

2008-07-01

Migrant black Africans are disproportionately affected by HIV in Western Europe; we discuss the barriers to HIV testing for sub-Saharan migrants, with particular emphasis on the UK and the Netherlands. Cultural, social and structural barriers to testing, such as access to testing and care, fear of death and disease and fear of stigma and discrimination in the community, can be identified. Lack of political will, restrictive immigration policies and the absence of African representation in decision-making processes are also major factors preventing black Africans from testing. HIV testing strategies need to be grounded in outreach and community mobilisation, addressing fear of diagnosis, highlighting the success of treatment and tackling HIV-related stigma among black African migrant communities.

Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

CERN Document Server

Draief, Moez

2009-01-01

Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

2014-01-01

Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

2015-11-01

In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Huseyin Atakan

2016-08-01

This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. N. Kuperman

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

2018-01-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

Selected Differences in the Life Chances of Black and White in the United States. Research Group One, Report No. 17.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrlich, Howard J.

Tabular data presented in this report comprise: total and black population of the U.S. for every census period from 1790 to 1970, the 50 cities with the largest black population for 1970, an index of residential segregation for 1960, selected views of age and sex, life and death, the educational profile of white and black in 1970, family income…

The mortality profile of black Seventh-Day Adventists residing in metropolitan Atlanta: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, F G; Blumenthal, D S; Dickson-Smith, J; Peay, R P

1990-08-01

Mortality information was gathered for 110 Black Seventh-day Adventist members of seven churches in Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia during the period 1980-87. Seventy-seven percent of the deaths were due to cardiovascular diseases; 8 percent due to cancer, the second leading cause of death. The cancer rate is extremely low in comparison to the proportion of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases. Subsequent research on this population will take into consideration lifestyle factors which could contribute to this finding.

High prevalence of primary dyslipidaemia in black South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In South Africa (SA), premature deaths due to heart and blood vessel diseases in people of working age (35 - 64 years) have been predicted to increase by 41% between 2007 ... To assess the burden and prevalence of dyslipidaemia in the SA black population at Dr George Mukhari Hospital in the north region of Gauteng.

Chikungunya virus–induced autophagy delays caspase-dependent cell death

Science.gov (United States)

Joubert, Pierre-Emmanuel; Werneke, Scott W.; de la Calle, Claire; Guivel-Benhassine, Florence; Giodini, Alessandra; Peduto, Lucie; Levine, Beth; Schwartz, Olivier; Lenschow, Deborah J.

2012-01-01

Autophagy is an important survival pathway and can participate in the host response to infection. Studying Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), the causative agent of a major epidemic in India, Southeast Asia, and southern Europe, we reveal a novel mechanism by which autophagy limits cell death and mortality after infection. We use biochemical studies and single cell multispectral assays to demonstrate that direct infection triggers both apoptosis and autophagy. CHIKV-induced autophagy is mediated by the independent induction of endoplasmic reticulum and oxidative stress pathways. These cellular responses delay apoptotic cell death by inducing the IRE1α–XBP-1 pathway in conjunction with ROS-mediated mTOR inhibition. Silencing of autophagy genes resulted in enhanced intrinsic and extrinsic apoptosis, favoring viral propagation in cultured cells. Providing in vivo evidence for the relevance of our findings, Atg16LHM mice, which display reduced levels of autophagy, exhibited increased lethality and showed a higher sensitivity to CHIKV-induced apoptosis. Based on kinetic studies and the observation that features of apoptosis and autophagy were mutually exclusive, we conclude that autophagy inhibits caspase-dependent cell death but is ultimately overwhelmed by viral replication. Our study suggests that inducers of autophagy may limit the pathogenesis of acute Chikungunya disease. PMID:22508836

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Quantifying risk of death and disability associated with raised blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, P; Nichols, R; Chee, D

1999-01-01

Raised blood pressure is one of the most important underlying risk factors for morbidity and mortality in the world today, ranking alongside tobacco in estimates of the worldwide attributable burden of mortality. It is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease and the major risk factor for stroke. Taken together, the cardiovascular diseases are estimated to account for some 28% of all deaths in the world. Already many more of such deaths are occurring in the developing than the developed world, and this burden of disease is set to worsen as a result of demographic changes in the poorer countries, together with adoption of Western lifestyle. The development of unfavourable blood pressure patterns in populations is a key factor underlying this worldwide epidemic. Both primary prevention (for example through improved diet) and secondary prevention (through drug treatment and non-pharmacologic approaches) are needed.

Late Cenozoic tephrochronology, stratigraphy, geomorphology, and neotectonics of the Western Black Mountains Piedmont, Death Valley, California: Implications for the spatial and temporal evolution of the Death Valley fault zone

Science.gov (United States)

Knott, Jeffrey Rayburn

This study presents the first detailed tephrochronologic study of the central Death Valley area by correlation of a Nomlaki-like tuff (>3.35 Ma), tuffs of the Mesquite Spring family (3.1 -- 3.35 Ma), a tuff of the lower Glass Mountain family (1.86 -- 2.06 Ma), and tephra layers from the upper Glass Mountain family (0.8 -- 1.2 Ma), the Bishop ash bed (0.76 Ma), the Lava Creek B ash bed (~0.66 Ma), and the Dibekulewe ash bed (~0.51 Ma). Correlation of these tuffs and tephra layers provides the first reliable numeric-age stratigraphy for late Cenozoic alluvial fan and lacustrine deposits for Death Valley and resulted in the naming of the informal early to middle Pleistocene Mormon Ploint formation. Using the numeric-age stratigraphy, the Death Valley fault zone (DVFZ) is interpreted to have progressively stepped basinward since the late Pliocene at Mormon Point and Copper Canyon. The Mormon Point turtleback or low-angle normal fault is shown to have unequivocal late Quaternary slip at its present low angle dip. Tectonic geomorphic analysis indicates that the (DVFZ) is composed of five geomorphic segments with the most persistent segment boundaries being the en-echelon step at Mormon Point and the bedrock salient at Artists Drive. Subsequent geomorphic studies resulting from the numeric-age stratigraphy and structural relations include application of Gilberts field criteria to the benches at Mormon Point indicating that the upper bench is a lacustrine strandline and the remaining topographically-lower benches are fault scarps across the 160--185 ka lake abrasion platform. In addition, the first known application of cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al exposure dating to a rock avalanche complex south of Badwater yielded an age of 29.5 +/- 1.9 ka for the younger avalanche. The 28 meter offset of the older avalanche may be interpreted as post-160--185 ka yielding a 0.1 mm/year slip rate, or post-29.5 +/- 1.9 ka yielding a maximum slip rate of 0.9 nun/year for the DVFZ. A consequence

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

2004-10-22

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

2017-05-26

The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

The Death of Imhotep: A Hermeneutical Framework for Understanding the Lack of Black Males in STEM Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Mocombe, Paul C.

2018-01-01

In Afrocentric circles in the United States, ancient Kemetic (Egyptian) scientist Imhotep is considered the Black father of medicine. In this article, I use his name in the title as an allusion to highlight the lack of Black males matriculating in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs or fields in the United States. The…

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

Moderate extracellular acidification inhibits capsaicin-induced cell death through regulating calcium mobilization, NF-{kappa}B translocation and ROS production in synoviocytes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Fen; Yang, Shuang; Zhao, Dan; Zhu, Shuyan; Wang, Yuxiang [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China); Li, Junying, E-mail: jyli04@nankai.edu.cn [Department of Biophysics, School of Physics and Key Laboratory of Bioactive Materials of Education Ministry, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 (China)

2012-07-20

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate extracellular acidification regulates intracellular Ca{sup 2+} mobilization. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification activates NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation in synoviocytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification depresses the ROS production induced by capsaicin. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Moderate acidification inhibits capsaicin-caused synoviocyte death. -- Abstract: We previously show the expression of transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in primary synoviocytes from collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) rats. Capsaicin and lowered extracellular pH from 7.4 to 5.5 induce cell death through TRPV1-mediated Ca{sup 2+} entry and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. However, under the pathological condition in rheumatoid arthritis, the synovial fluid is acidified to a moderate level (about pH 6.8). In the present study, we examined the effects of pH 6.8 on the TRPV1-mediated cell death. Our finding is different or even opposite from what was observed at pH 5.5. We found that the moderate extracellular acidification (from pH 7.4 to 6.8) inhibited the capsaicin-induced Ca{sup 2+} entry through attenuating the activity of TRPV1. In the mean time, it triggered a phospholipse C (PLC)-related Ca{sup 2+} release from intracellular stores. The nuclear translocation of NF-{kappa}B was found at pH 6.8, and this also depends on PLC activation. Moreover, the capsaicin-evoked massive ROS production and cell death were depressed at pH 6.8, both of which are dependent on the activation of PLC and NF-{kappa}B. Taken together, these results suggested that the moderate extracellular acidification inhibited the capsaicin-induced synoviocyte death through regulating Ca{sup 2+} mobilization, activating NF-{kappa}B nuclear translocation and depressing ROS production.

Cholera in Thomas Mann's Death in Venice.

Science.gov (United States)

Rütten, Thomas

2009-01-01

The article sets the cholera motif in Thomas Mann's famous novella Death in Venice against the historical context from which it partially originates. It is shown that this motif, while undoubtedly appropriated to serve Mann's own poetic ends, has a solid grounding in historical and autobiographical fact, thus blurring the boundaries between fact and fiction. The article illustrates the verifiable events of the outbreak of the Venetian cholera epidemic in May 1911, which Mann partly witnessed himself, during a holiday trip to Brioni and Venice, and partly heard and read about. It is established that Thomas Mann's account of the cholera in Venice in his novella is characterised by a rare and almost preternatural insightfulness into an otherwise murky affair that was marked by rumours, speculations and denials.

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2015-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

Combination antiretroviral therapy : formulation of a powder for oral suspension containing Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Nevirapine / Janene Oosthuizen de Villiers

OpenAIRE

De Villiers, Janene Oosthuizen

2006-01-01

The human race has had to endure a variety of disabling and life threatening diseases which include leprosy, plaque, Black Death and numerous other infamous viruses, none of which awaken terror like the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). HIV infection has produced one of the most dreaded epidemics of the twentieth century, or rather, of all time, leaving no country or race untouched. Until this time, no cure for this disease has been discovered, and sufferers have to tolerate ...

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

2007-06-15

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-06-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-01-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2009-01-01

Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Valeri

Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-01-05

We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

Trauma - the malignant epidemic

African Journals Online (AJOL)

national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

Epidemics on interconnected networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2012-06-01

Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

A New Cosmological Model: Black Hole Universe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang T. X.

2009-07-01

Full Text Available A new cosmological model called black hole universe is proposed. According to this model, the universe originated from a hot star-like black hole with several solar masses, and gradually grew up through a supermassive black hole with billion solar masses to the present state with hundred billion-trillion solar masses by accreting ambient mate- rials and merging with other black holes. The entire space is structured with infinite layers hierarchically. The innermost three layers are the universe that we are living, the outside called mother universe, and the inside star-like and supermassive black holes called child universes. The outermost layer is infinite in radius and limits to zero for both the mass density and absolute temperature. The relationships among all layers or universes can be connected by the universe family tree. Mathematically, the entire space can be represented as a set of all universes. A black hole universe is a subset of the en- tire space or a subspace. The child universes are null sets or empty spaces. All layers or universes are governed by the same physics - the Einstein general theory of relativity with the Robertson-walker metric of spacetime - and tend to expand outward physically. The evolution of the space structure is iterative. When one universe expands out, a new similar universe grows up from its inside. The entire life of a universe begins from the birth as a hot star-like or supermassive black hole, passes through the growth and cools down, and expands to the death with infinite large and zero mass density and absolute temperature. The black hole universe model is consistent with the Mach principle, the observations of the universe, and the Einstein general theory of relativity. Its various aspects can be understood with the well-developed physics without any difficulty. The dark energy is not required for the universe to accelerate its expansion. The inflation is not necessary because the black hole universe

Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-10-01

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

Parent & Child Perceptions of Child Health after Sibling Death.

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Rosa M; Brooten, Dorothy; Youngblut, JoAnne M

Understanding children's health after a sibling's death and what factors may affect it is important for treatment and clinical care. This study compared children's and their parents' perceptions of children's health and identified relationships of children's age, gender, race/ethnicity, anxiety, and depression and sibling's cause of death to these perceptions at 2 and 4 months after sibling death. 64 children and 48 parents rated the child's health "now" and "now vs before" the sibling's death in an ICU or ER or at home shortly after withdrawal of life-prolonging technology. Children completed the Child Depression Inventory and Spence Children's Anxiety Scale. Sibling cause of death was collected from hospital records. At 2 and 4 months, 45% to 54% of mothers' and 53% to 84% of fathers' ratings of their child's health "now" were higher than their children's ratings. Child health ratings were lower for: children with greater depression; fathers whose children reported greater anxiety; mothers whose child died of a chronic condition. Children's ratings of their health "now vs before" their sibling's death did not differ significantly from mothers' or fathers' ratings at 2 or 4 months. Black fathers were more likely to rate the child's health better "now vs before" the death; there were no significant differences by child gender and cause of death in child's health "now vs before" the death. Children's responses to a sibling's death may not be visually apparent or become known by asking parents. Parents often perceive their children as healthier than children perceive themselves at 2 and 4 months after sibling death, so talking with children separately is important. Children's perceptions of their health may be influenced by depression, fathers' perceptions by children's anxiety, and mother's perceptions by the cause of sibling death.

Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

Cholera epidemics, war and disasters around Goma and Lake Kivu: an eight-year survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Bompangue

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: During the last eight years, North and South Kivu, located in a lake area in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, have been the site of a major volcano eruption and of numerous complex emergencies with population displacements. These conditions have been suspected to favour emergence and spread of cholera epidemics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In order to assess the influence of these conditions on outbreaks, reports of cholera cases were collected weekly from each health district of North Kivu (4,667,699 inhabitants and South Kivu (4,670,121 inhabitants from 2000 through 2007. A geographic information system was established, and in each health district, the relationships between environmental variables and the number of cholera cases were assessed using regression techniques and time series analysis. We further checked for a link between complex emergencies and cholera outbreaks. Finally, we analysed data collected during an epidemiological survey that was implemented in Goma after Nyiragongo eruption. A total of 73,605 cases and 1,612 deaths of cholera were reported. Time series decomposition showed a greater number of cases during the rainy season in South Kivu but not in North Kivu. Spatial distribution of cholera cases exhibited a higher number of cases in health districts bordering lakes (Odds Ratio 7.0, Confidence Interval range 3.8-12.9. Four epidemic reactivations were observed in the 12-week periods following war events, but simulations indicate that the number of reactivations was not larger than that expected during any random selection of period with no war. Nyiragongo volcanic eruption was followed by a marked decrease of cholera incidence. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study points out the crucial role of some towns located in lakeside areas in the persistence of cholera in Kivu. Even if complex emergencies were not systematically followed by cholera epidemics, some of them enabled cholera spreading.

Concern about the Expanding Prescription Drug Epidemic: A Survey of Licensed Prescribers and Dispensers.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, R Eric; Reed, Nia; Carnes, Neal; Kooreman, Harold E

2016-01-01

Prescription drug misuse and abuse has reached epidemic levels in the U.S., and stands as a leading cause of death. As the primary gatekeepers to the medications contributing to this epidemic, it is critical to understand the views of licensed health care professionals. In this study, we examine health care professionals' concern regarding prescription drug abuse in their communities and the impact their concern has had on their prescribing and dispensing practices. An online survey of licensed health care providers. Conducted in Indiana. This study was a state-wide evaluation of Indiana's prescription drug monitoring program. The questionnaire asked respondents how concerned they were about prescription drug abuse in their community. Variation in the level of concern was examined using ordinary least squares regression and information about the respondents' demographic background and clinical experience. In addition, we used logistic regression to examine whether concern was associated with changing prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The majority of providers indicated they were "moderately" or "extremely concerned" about prescription drug abuse in their communities. The level of concern, however, varied significantly by profession, with pharmacists, physicians, nurse practitioners/physician assistants being more concerned than dentists. Additional analyses indicate that providers with higher levels of concern were those who also reported recently changing their prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The voluntary nature and geographical focus of the study limits the generalizability of the findings. Concern about prescription drug abuse is generally high across the major health care professions; however, a significant minority of providers, particularly among dentists, expressed little or no concern about the epidemic. Increasing health care providers' general level of concern about prescription drug abuse may be an effective public health tool for

Black fly involvement in the epidemic transmission of vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (Rhabdoviridae: Vesiculovirus).

Science.gov (United States)

Mead, Daniel G; Howerth, Elizabeth W; Murphy, Molly D; Gray, Elmer W; Noblet, Raymond; Stallknecht, David E

2004-01-01

The transmission routes of Vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV), a causative agent of vesicular stomatitis, an Office International des Epizooties List-A disease, are not completely understood. Epidemiological and entomological studies conducted during the sporadic epidemics in the western United States have identified potential virus transmission routes involving insect vectors and animal-to-animal contact. In the present study we experimentally tested the previously proposed transmission routes which were primarily based on field observations. Results obtained provide strong evidence for the following: (1) hematophagous insects acquire VSNJV by unconventional routes while blood feeding on livestock, (2) clinical course of VSNJV infection in livestock following transmission by an infected insect is related to insect bite site, (3) infection of livestock via insect bite can result in multiple transmission possibilities, including animal-to-animal contact. Taken together, these data significantly add to our understanding of the transmission routes of a causative agent of one of the oldest known infectious diseases of livestock, for which the details have remained largely unknown despite decades of research.

Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

THE SEMANTICS OF COLORATIVES IN TOLSTOY’S NARRATIVES (“THE DEATH OF IVAN ILYICH”, “THE KREUTZER SONATA”, “THE DEVIL”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena A. Masolova

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In Tolstoy’s stories of the 1870s the coloratives have negative semantics. In “The Death of Ivan Ilyich” the yellow color “implicates” a movement to death. In “The Kreutzer Sonata” this color aggravates Pozdnyshev’s moral sufferings and embodies deception and lust. In “The Devil” the description of Lisa’s yellow complexion reveals Irtenev’s negative attitude to her. In “The Death of Ivan Ilyich” the pink and green cretonne of a “fashionable” living room loses its grandiosity in the house of the deceased man. In “The Death of Ivan Ilyich” the white color of clothes initially associated by the character with confidence in the future, then resulted in the patient’s dislike and was seen as evidence of inconsiderateness of people. In “The Kreutzer Sonata” the white color, in Trukhachevsky’s portrait, turned Pozdnyshev against him even more. In “The Devil” the white color Lisa was accompanied with provoked the growth of Irtenev’s irritation. In “The Kreutzer Sonata” the semantics of the red color is disturbing, ominous, and associated with debauchery and lie. In “The Devil” the description of the red clothes replaces the portrait characteristics of Stepanida; for Irtenev the red panyova and the red headscarf of his mistress became the symbols of the devilish temptation. In “The Death of Ivan Ilyich” the black color, being an attribute of mental and physical illness of the character, began to correspond to the image of a black sack devouring the person. In “The Kreutzer Sonata” an infernal black and red color scale contributes to the presentiment of tragedy. In “The Devil” the black color discovers Irtenev’s increasing dependence on delusion. In “The Kreutzer Sonata” the coloratives with the root “light” are related to Pozdnyshev’s insight concerning his family life, based on deception. In “The Death of Ivan Ilyich” “light” liberates the character of death anxiety

The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

2014-01-01

To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

Wildlife forensic entomology: determining time of death in two illegally killed black bear cubs.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G S

1999-07-01

Forensic entomology is now commonly used to determine time of death in human death investigations. However, it can be equally applicable to wildlife crimes. This paper describes the use of entomology to determine time of death in the illegal killing of two young bear cubs in Manitoba, Canada. Two cubs were found shot, disemboweled, with their gall bladders removed. Natural Resource officers (Conservation Officers) and a Royal Canadian Mounted Police (R.C.M.P.) officer examined the remains, and the R.C.M.P. officer collected insect evidence. The only insects on the remains were adult blow flies coming to lay eggs and the blow fly eggs themselves (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The time of hatch was recorded and the insects were reared to adulthood. Time of hatch, together with species identification, macro and micro climate and lab developmental data were used to determine the time of death. The time was consistent with the time that the defendants were seen at the scene and was used in their conviction. This case illustrates that insect evidence can be equally as valuable in poaching cases as in homicide cases. However, in most cases Conservation Officers are unaware of this science. It is therefore, extremely important for more Conservation Officers to be educated about this field.

Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

2014-01-01

Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

Science.gov (United States)

Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-02-10

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

Environmental drivers of Yersinia pestis - a holistic perspective on Medieval Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Buentgen, U.

2009-09-01

Recent studies have indicated some evidence for a link between climate variability and plague (Yersinia pestis) dynamics in Central Asia and during most of the 20th century. An intensification of plague outbreaks via population peaks in its host-species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) and its fleas (Xenopsylla spp) has been found to occur during periods of warmer spring and wetter summer climate. This is important, as human epidemics of plague ultimately originate in its wildlife reservoirs. Given the fact that Medieval Europe was strongly devastated by the Black Death - the second pandemic after the Justinian plague ~540AD, and that the worldwide highest quality and quantity of climate proxy data exist for Europe, we here present, for the first time, a holistic approach to enhance understanding of the mid-14th century Black Death. This is of primary importance not only for medical/epidemiological research, but also for other scientific communities, because the Black Death disease had a sustainable impact on the socio-economic development, culture, art, and religion of Medieval Europe. Palaeoclimatic records of annually resolved European temperature and drought variability are compiled, a high-resolution time-series of anthropogenic deforestation is utilized, documentary archives of socio-economic relevance are considered, and the animal-born plague bacterium is placed in the ecological web. Considering the European/North Atlantic sector and the last millennium, periods of high solar radiation and reduced volcanic activity shift the North Atlantic Oscillation into a generally positive mode, yielding towards warmer temperatures and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. We now argue that increased internal circulation resulted in an overall wetter and warmer climate ~1350AD, which most likely was able to promote the prevalence of existing and widespread Yersinia pestis bacillus. Resulting outbreaks of bubonic plague could have been also supported by the

Analysis of novel stochastic switched SILI epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Shujing; Zhong, Deming; Zhang, Yan

2018-04-01

In this paper, we establish two new stochastic switched epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control. The stochastic perturbations are considered for the natural death rate in each equation of the models. Firstly, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes is investigated. By using Lyapunov-Razumikhin method, the sufficient conditions for extinction in mean are established. Our result shows that the disease could be die out theoretically if threshold value R is less than one, regardless of whether the disease-free solutions of the corresponding subsystems are stable or unstable. Then, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes and pulse vaccination is studied. The threshold value R is derived. The global attractivity of the model is also obtained. At last, numerical simulations are carried out to support our results.

The Tuskegee Syphilis Study, 1932 to 1972: implications for HIV education and AIDS risk education programs in the black community.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, S B; Quinn, S C

1991-01-01

The Tuskegee study of untreated syphilis in the Negro male is the longest nontherapeutic experiment on human beings in medical history. The strategies used to recruit and retain participants were quite similar to those being advocated for HIV/AIDS prevention programs today. Almost 60 years after the study began, there remains a trail of distrust and suspicion that hampers HIV education efforts in Black communities. The AIDS epidemic has exposed the Tuskegee study as a historical marker for the legitimate discontent of Blacks with the public health system. The belief that AIDS is a form of genocide is rooted in a social context in which Black Americans, faced with persistent inequality, believe in conspiracy theories about Whites against Blacks. These theories range from the belief that the government promotes drug abuse in Black communities to the belief that HIV is a manmade weapon of racial warfare. An open and honest discussion of the Tuskegee Syphilis Study can facilitate the process of rebuilding trust between the Black community and public health authorities. This dialogue can contribute to the development of HIV education programs that are scientifically sound, culturally sensitive, and ethnically acceptable. Images p1500-a p1502-a p1503-a PMID:1951814

Death and Death Anxiety

OpenAIRE

Gonca Karakus; Zehra Ozturk; Lut Tamam

2012-01-01

Although death and life concepts seem so different from each other, some believe that death and life as a whole that death is accepted as the goal of life and death completes life. In different cultures, societies and disciplines, there have been very different definitions of death which changes according to personality, age, religion and cultural status of the individual. Attitudes towards death vary dramatically according to individuals. As for the death anxiety, it is a feeling which start...

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Godwin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

Physical fitness and health risk assessment of urban black females ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Whereas coronary heart disease was not a major cause of death among black populations of South Africa in the past, the situation is fast changing. Health and fitness providers should give special attention to the modifiable risk factors of coronary heart disease for all populations. The aim of the present study was to identify ...

Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthmann, J P

1995-12-01

In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

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S Napp

Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-12-05

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Inferior outcomes for black children with high risk acute lymphoblastic leukemia and the impact of socioeconomic variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Alexandra; Chewning, Joseph; Li, Xuelin; Dai, Chen; Whelan, Kimberly; Madan-Swain, Avi; Waterbor, John; Baskin, Monica L; Goldman, Frederick D

2017-02-01

While significant improvements have been made for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in the United States over the past 20 years, black patients continue to have inferior outcomes. The full impact of socioeconomic variables on outcomes in this minority population is not entirely understood. Disease characteristics, demographic, and socioeconomic status (SES) variables were collected on black (n = 44) and white (n = 178) patients diagnosed at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the influence of SES and insurance status on survival. As a cohort, 5-year overall survival (OS) was 87% (82-91%), with a median follow-up of 99 months. In univariable analysis, black race was not significantly associated with a higher risk of death or relapse and death. White and black patients with standard-risk leukemia had excellent outcomes, with 97% (91-99%) and 96% (75-99%) 5-year OS, respectively. In contrast, for high-risk disease, white patients had a statistically significant improved 5-year OS rates compared with black patients (79% [68-87%] vs. 52% [28-72%]). Black children were more likely to have public insurance, and, in multivariable analysis, this was associated with a trend toward an improved outcome. Black patients also had poorer census tract-level SES parameters, but these variables were not associated with survival. Our study demonstrates significantly inferior outcomes for black children with high-risk leukemia. These outcome disparities were not related to SES variables, including poverty or private insurance coverage, suggesting the involvement of other factors and highlighting the need for a prospective investigative analysis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Differences in Poisoning Mortality in the United States, 2003–2007: Epidemiology of Poisoning Deaths Classified as Unintentional, Suicide or Homicide

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Sana Muazzam

2012-08-01

deaths and the rate remained the same during 2003–2007. The highest rates were among aged 0–19 (rate¼0.05, males (rate¼0.04 and blacks (rate¼0.06.Conclusion: Prevention efforts for poisoning mortalities, especially unintentional poisoning, should be developed, implemented and strengthened. Differences exist in poisoning mortality by age, sex, location, and these findings underscore the urgency of addressing this public health burden as this epidemic continues to grow in the U.S. [West J Emerg Med. 2012;13(3:230–238.

Metabolic syndrome in Black people of the African diaspora: the paradox of current classification, definition and criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaillard, Trudy; Schuster, Dara; Osei, Kwame

2009-01-01

According to the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, African Americans have a lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome than do Whites. Recent reports in Blacks in other regions have confirmed these observations, but the rates vary. This lower rate of metabolic syndrome in Blacks can be partly ascribed to the lower prevalent rates of some major components of metabolic syndrome, namely serum triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in Blacks. This is in contrast with the higher prevalence of obesity (waist circumference) and blood pressure that meet National Cholesterol Education Program criteria in Blacks. Despite these seemingly favorable lipids and lipoprotein profiles, Blacks continue to have higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity, even in the absence of diabetes, than do Whites. Insulin resistance is more prevalent in Blacks than in Whites. However, the relationships among insulin resistance and CVD risk factors such as hypertension, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides are weak in contrast with Whites. The paradox of more favorable lipid profile and conversely the higher rates of unfavorable blood pressure in Blacks calls into question the validity of the current criteria for metabolic syndrome in Blacks. Thus, it can be argued that each of the components of the metabolic syndrome carry different CVD risk factors in Blacks. The greater CVD mortality and morbidity in Blacks appear to be multifactorial. With the emerging epidemic of noncommunicable diseases, chronic kidney diseases due to both diabetes and hypertension have emerged as major CVD risks that are associated with increasing mortality and morbidity in Blacks. We need to emphasize specific components of metabolic syndrome, specifically blood pressure and chronic kidney disease, that carry higher CVD risk with associated greater morbidity and mortality for primary prevention of CVD and type 2 diabetes in Blacks. To this end, we

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2012-01-01

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwang Zhang

Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

2015-08-01

During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

2016-11-01

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

Looking for the invisible universe - Black matter, black energy, black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elbaz, David

2016-01-01

As the discovery of the expansion of the universe and of black holes put the study of cosmology into question again because it now refers to invisible things such as black holes, black energy and black matter, the author proposes an other view on the universe within such a context. He first discusses these three enigmas of black matter, black energy and black holes. In a second part, he addresses, discusses and comments five illusions: the Uranian illusion (questions of the existence of an anti-world, of black matter temperature), the Mercurian illusion (quantum gravity, the string theory), the Martian illusion (a patchwork universe, the illusion of the infinite), the cosmic Maya (the John Wheeler's cup, the holographic universe), and the narcissistic illusion

Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

2014-01-01

that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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Closas Pau

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wan

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

2017-10-01

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

2016-12-01

The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using syndemic theory to understand vulnerability to HIV infection among Black and Latino men in New York City.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Patrick A; Nanin, Jose; Amesty, Silvia; Wallace, Scyatta; Cherenack, Emily M; Fullilove, Robert

2014-10-01

HIV is a public health crisis that disproportionately affects Black and Latino men. To understand this crisis, syndemic theory, which takes into account multiple interrelated epidemics, should be used. A syndemic is "two or more afflictions, interacting synergistically, contributing to excess burden of disease in a population." Vulnerability to HIV among Black and Latino men is increased as structural, social, and biological factors interact in the context of social marginalization. In New York City, Black and Latino men experience a syndemic of HIV/AIDS, substance abuse, trauma, incarceration, and poverty; however, current research has yet to fully identify the mechanisms of resilience that may reduce the negative impact of a syndemic or explore the potential adaptive functions of individual-level risk behaviors. To understand HIV risk as part of a syndemic and address HIV prevention in Black and Latino men, we propose the following: (1) the use of complex systems analysis, ethnography, and other mixed-methods approaches to observe changes in relations among social conditions and disease; (2) multidisciplinary and inter-institution collaboration; and (3) involvement of public health practitioners and researchers from diverse and underrepresented backgrounds.

The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

2018-02-01

Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

2007-05-01

Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

The flu fighters

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-02-01

The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in history. Beginning in 1347, the plague took just three years to spread from Constantinople in western Turkey to Italy and then on to the rest of Europe, leaving nearly a quarter of the continent's population dead in its wake. Historical studies confirm that the disease diffused smoothly, generating an epidemic front that travelled through the continent as a continuous wave at a rate of about 200-400 miles per year.

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Britton

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

2013-12-01

Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

Mortality Among Homeless Adults in Boston: Shifts in Causes of Death Over a 15-year Period

Science.gov (United States)

Baggett, Travis P.; Hwang, Stephen W.; O'Connell, James J.; Porneala, Bianca C.; Stringfellow, Erin J.; Orav, E. John; Singer, Daniel E.; Rigotti, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Background Homeless persons experience excess mortality, but U.S.-based studies on this topic are outdated or lack information about causes of death. No studies have examined shifts in causes of death for this population over time. Methods We assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in a cohort of 28,033 adults aged 18 years or older who were seen at Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2008. Deaths were identified through probabilistic linkage to the Massachusetts death occurrence files. We compared mortality rates in this cohort to rates in the 2003–08 Massachusetts population and a 1988–93 cohort of homeless adults in Boston using standardized rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Results 1,302 deaths occurred during 90,450 person-years of observation. Drug overdose (n=219), cancer (n=206), and heart disease (n=203) were the major causes of death. Drug overdose accounted for one-third of deaths among adults homeless adults in Boston remains high and unchanged since 1988–93 despite a major interim expansion in clinical services. Drug overdose has replaced HIV as the emerging epidemic. Interventions to reduce mortality in this population should include behavioral health integration into primary medical care, public health initiatives to prevent and reverse drug overdose, and social policy measures to end homelessness. PMID:23318302

On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

2015-12-01

The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

2016-01-01

textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

Kanpur epidemic: Time course

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

Re-entry experiences of Black men living with HIV/AIDS after release from prison: Intersectionality and implications for care.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Shufang; Crooks, Natasha; Kemnitz, Rebecca; Westergaard, Ryan P

2018-06-12

Both the HIV epidemic and incarceration disproportionately affect Black men in the United States. A critical period for incarcerated Black men living with HIV/AIDS is re-entry into the community, which is often associated with adverse health outcomes. Additionally, Black men living with HIV/AIDS involved in the criminal justice system are burdened by multiple, intersecting disadvantaged identities and social positions. This study aimed to examine community re-entry experiences among Black men living with HIV/AIDS from an intersectional perspective. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 incarcerated Black men in Wisconsin, at pre-release from prison and six months after re-entry. Thematic analysis guided by intersectionality theory was used to analyze interview transcripts. Seven emerged themes included Intersectional Identities and Social Positions, Family Support, Neighborhood Violence, Relationship with Law Enforcement, Employment, Mental Health Concerns, and Medical Care and Medication Management. Intersecting identities and social positions interact with factors at multiple levels to inform health and HIV care. A conceptual framework was developed to illustrate relationships among themes. Findings demonstrate the relevance of intersectionality theory in HIV care with Black men involved in criminal justice system. Incorporating a social-ecological perspective into intersectionality framework could be useful in theoretical and empirical research. Disenfranchised communities may particularly benefit from interventions that address community- and systemic-level issues. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs and intention to adopt preexposure prophylaxis among black men who have sex with men in Los Angeles.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Ronald A; Allen, Vincent C; Regan, Rotrease; Mutchler, Matt G; Cervantes-Tadeo, Ramon; Lee, Sung-Jae

2018-03-01

In the United States, black men who have sex with men (MSM) are the group most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important new HIV prevention strategy that may help reduce new HIV infections among black MSM. This analysis examined the association between HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs and intentions to adopt PrEP among 224 black MSM. The likelihood of adopting PrEP was assessed and more than half (60%) of the study population indicated a high intention to adopt PrEP. HIV/AIDS genocidal and treatment-related conspiracies were assessed using scales previously validated with black MSM. Almost two-thirds (63%) endorsed at least one of eight HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs presented. In multivariable analyses, black MSM who agreed with the genocidal or treatment-related conspiracy beliefs scales had a lower intention to adopt PrEP (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.54, 0.99 and AOR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.55, respectively). Our findings indicate that preexisting HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs may deter some black MSM from adopting PrEP. We suggest strategies PrEP implementers may want to employ to address the influence that HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs may have on the adoption of PrEP among black MSM, a population disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS.

The Crisis in Black and Black.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchinson, Earl Ofari

These essays explore why the historic conflict between blacks and whites in the United States has become a crisis that divides many African Americans. The changing racial dynamic is not marked by conflicts. between the black middle class and the poor, black men and women, the black intellectual elite and rappers, black politicians and the urban…

Causes of Death in HIV Patients and the Evolution of an AIDS Hospice: 1988–2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ann Stewart

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports on the transformation that has occurred in the care of people living with HIV/AIDS in a Toronto Hospice. Casey House opened in the pre-HAART era to care exclusively for people with HIV/AIDS, an incurable disease. At the time, all patients were admitted for palliative care and all deaths were due to AIDS-defining conditions. AIDS-defining malignancies accounted for 22 percent of deaths, mainly, Kaposi sarcoma and lymphoma. In the post-HAART era, AIDS-defining malignancies dropped dramatically and non-AIDS-defining malignancies became a significant cause of death, including liver cancer, lung cancer and gastric cancers. In the post-HAART era, people living with HIV/AIDS served at Casey House have changed considerably, with increasing numbers of patients facing homelessness and mental health issues, including substance use. Casey House offers a picture of the evolving epidemic and provides insight into changes and improvements made in the care of these patients.

Causes of Death in HIV Patients and the Evolution of an AIDS Hospice: 1988–2008

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Ann; Chan Carusone, Soo; To, Kent; Schaefer-McDaniel, Nicole; Halman, Mark; Grimes, Richard

2012-01-01

This paper reports on the transformation that has occurred in the care of people living with HIV/AIDS in a Toronto Hospice. Casey House opened in the pre-HAART era to care exclusively for people with HIV/AIDS, an incurable disease. At the time, all patients were admitted for palliative care and all deaths were due to AIDS-defining conditions. AIDS-defining malignancies accounted for 22 percent of deaths, mainly, Kaposi sarcoma and lymphoma. In the post-HAART era, AIDS-defining malignancies dropped dramatically and non-AIDS-defining malignancies became a significant cause of death, including liver cancer, lung cancer and gastric cancers. In the post-HAART era, people living with HIV/AIDS served at Casey House have changed considerably, with increasing numbers of patients facing homelessness and mental health issues, including substance use. Casey House offers a picture of the evolving epidemic and provides insight into changes and improvements made in the care of these patients. PMID:22666562

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-01

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

2011-01-01

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

2012-01-01

We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

2006-04-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana A. Hacker

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason D Bishai

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2016-12-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

2015-05-01

The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

Mortality among white, black, and Hispanic male and female state prisoners, 2001–2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Wildeman

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Although much research considers the relationship between imprisonment and mortality, little existing research has tested whether the short-term mortality advantage enjoyed by prisoners extends to Hispanics. We compared the mortality rates of non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic male and female state prisoners to mortality rates in the general population using data from the Deaths in Custody Reporting Program, the National Prisoner Statistics, the National Corrections Reporting Program, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results indicate that the mortality advantage for prisoners was greatest for black males, followed by black females, Hispanic males, white females, and white males. Hispanic female prisoners were the only group not at a mortality advantage relative to the general population, with an SMR of 1.18 [95% CI: 0.93–1.43]. Taken together, the results suggest that future research should seek to better understand the curious imprisonment–mortality relationship among Hispanic females, although given the small number of inmate deaths that happen to this group (~0.6%, this research should not detract from broader research on imprisonment and mortality. Keywords: Imprisonment, Mortality, Population health, Racial disparities

A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Baspinar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

2010-01-01

This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

2015-01-01

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

1994-05-01

To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

2014-01-01

Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

2009-01-01

Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

Science.gov (United States)

Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

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Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

2007-03-01

The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

2015-02-01

Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

2017-01-01

the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some...... municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal. Author summary: John Snow’s seminal work on the London cholera epidemic and Broadway pump helped establish cholera......-cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

A cor da morte: causas de óbito segundo características de raça no Estado de São Paulo, 1999 a 2001 The color of death: causes of death according to race in the State of Sao Paulo, 1999 to 2001

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís Eduardo Batista

2004-10-01

represent vulnerability to sickness, this study attempts to verify whether race or ethnic origin have an effect on mortality patterns. METHODS: The Sao Paulo State death register was examined from 1999 to 2001 in a contingence table of causes according to the 10th ICD and race or skin-color categories (White, Black, Mulatto and others. Chi-square test was used to check the association between skin-color and cause of death; residual analysis was used to elicit statistically significant excessive occurrences when each category of cause of death and skin color was combined; and correspondence analysis was used to examine overall relations among all categories considered. RESULTS: A total of 647,321 valid death registers were analyzed, among which 77.7% were of Whites, 5.4% of Blacks, 14.3% of Mulattoes and 2.6% of others. A significant association between skin color or race and cause of death was found. It may be observed that, although Blacks and Mulattoes present a similar death profile, on the contrary of Whites and others, which could be aggregated into a single category, the former appear in distinct positions on the multidimensional map presented. Except for mal defined causes, which characterize only the deaths of Blacks, the other causes of death within this group are common to both Blacks and Mulattoes, varying however, in intensity and as to the order in which they appear death. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of mortality according to race or color revealed that death has a color. There is a White death, which has, among its causes, sicknesses, which, although variable, are nothing more than sicknesses. There's a Black death, which is not caused by sicknesses but by external causes, complications in labor and delivery, mental disorders and ill- defined causes.

[The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, M D

1992-01-01

The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

2011-12-01

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2018-05-01

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: A quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914-1933.

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Aiko Kurosawa

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0, the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases than the first (879 cases, but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42. The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928, and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p < 0.001, indicated that increased awareness and use of PEP might have prevented disease. Although significantly more dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p < 0.01, there were fewer dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p < 0.01. We suggest that the combination of mass vaccination and restriction of dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

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Wei Gou

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

Estimating the number of secondary Ebola cases resulting from an unsafe burial and risk factors for transmission during the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

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Amanda Tiffany

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Safely burying Ebola infected individuals is acknowledged to be important for controlling Ebola epidemics and was a major component of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola response. Yet, in order to understand the impact of safe burial programs it is necessary to elucidate the role of unsafe burials in sustaining chains of Ebola transmission and how the risk posed by activities surrounding unsafe burials, including care provided at home prior to death, vary with human behavior and geography.Interviews with next of kin and community members were carried out for unsafe burials in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, in six districts where the Red Cross was responsible for safe and dignified burials (SDB. Districts were randomly selected from a district-specific sampling frame comprised of villages and neighborhoods that had experienced cases of Ebola. An average of 2.58 secondary cases were potentially generated per unsafe burial and varied by district (range: 0-20. Contact before and after death was reported for 142 (46% contacts. Caregivers of a primary case were 2.63 to 5.92 times more likely to become EVD infected compared to those with post-mortem contact only. Using these estimates, the Red Cross SDB program potentially averted between 1,411 and 10,452 secondary EVD cases, reducing the epidemic by 4.9% to 36.5%.SDB is a fundamental control measure that limits community transmission of Ebola; however, for those individuals having contact before and after death, it was impossible to ascertain the exposure that caused their infection. The number of infections prevented through SDB is significant, yet greater impact would be achieved by early hospitalization of the primary case during acute illness.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2010-08-01

During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Eight challenges for network epidemic models

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Lorenzo Pellis

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusing signal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faria, Fernando P; Dickman, Ronald

2012-01-01

We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ('signals') emitted by infected individuals. The signals decay as well as diffuse; since they are assumed to be produced in large numbers, the signal concentration is treated deterministically. The model, which includes four cellular states (susceptible, transformed, depleted, and removed), admits various interpretations: spread of an infection or infectious disease, or of damage in a tissue in which injured cells may themselves provoke further damage, and as a description of the so-called radiation-induced bystander effect, in which the signals are molecules capable of inducing cell damage and/or death in unirradiated cells. The model exhibits a continuous phase transition between spreading and nonspreading phases. We formulate two mean-field theory (MFT) descriptions of the model, one of which ignores correlations between the cellular state and the signal concentration, and another that treats such correlations in an approximate manner. Monte Carlo simulations of the spread of infection on the square lattice yield values for the critical exponents and the fractal dimension consistent with the dynamic percolation universality class

Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

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H S Girgia

1980-01-01

Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

2014-11-01

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

[Management of the yellow fever epidemic in 2010 in Séguéla (Côte d'Ivoire): value of multidisciplinary investigation].

Science.gov (United States)

Konan, Yao Lucien; Coulibaly, Zanakoungo Ibrahima; Allali, Kouadio Bernard; Tétchi, Sopi Mathilde; Koné, Atioumounan Blaise; Coulibaly, Daouda; Ekra, Kouadio Daniel; Doannio, Julien Marie Christian; Oudéhouri-Koudou, Paul

2014-01-01

In August 2010, five positive cases of yellow fever were reported in the region of Séguéla, in the northwest of Côte d'Ivoire, affected by an armed conflict since 2002. In order to evaluate the extent of yellow fever virus circulation and the risk for local people, a multidisciplinary investigation was carried out by the Côte-d'Ivoire Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene. Theses investigations were conducted in the villages of confirmed cases and the outpatient and hospitalization centers attended by infected patients, two weeks after the reactive immunization campaign performed in order to stop the spread of the epidemic. The search for suspects identified 16 cases, including 4 cases and 2 deaths in hospital registers and 12 cases during community interviews, including 6 deaths. Stegomyiens indices were relatively low. Aedes aegypti was present among adult mosquitoes. In addition, three wild vectors, varying in number from one locality to another, were detected: Ae. africanus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. vittatus with average biting rates of 0.3; 0.1 and 0.05 bite/man/twilight, respectively, at Soba, Ae. africanus and Ae. vittatus with average biting rates of 0.25 and 0.3 bite/man/twilight, respectively, at Yaokro and Ae. luteocephalus with one bite/man/twilight at Kaborékro. Unfortunately, the vaccine response conducted before investigations did not stop progression of the epidemic which broke out three months later in the Worofla health area, close to the Magrékros encampment.

Trends, productivity losses, and associated medical conditions among toxoplasmosis deaths in the United States, 2000-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Cummings, Patricia L; Kuo, Tony; Javanbakht, Marjan; Sorvillo, Frank

2014-11-01

Few studies have quantified toxoplasmosis mortality, associated medical conditions, and productivity losses in the United States. We examined national multiple cause of death data and estimated productivity losses caused by toxoplasmosis during 2000-2010. A matched case-control analysis examined associations between comorbid medical conditions and toxoplasmosis deaths. In total, 789 toxoplasmosis deaths were identified during the 11-year study period. Blacks and Hispanics had the highest toxoplasmosis mortality compared with whites. Several medical conditions were associated with toxoplasmosis deaths, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), lymphoma, leukemia, and connective tissue disorders. The number of toxoplasmosis deaths with an HIV codiagnosis declined from 2000 to 2010; the numbers without such a codiagnosis remained static. Cumulative disease-related productivity losses for the 11-year period were nearly $815 million. Although toxoplasmosis mortality has declined in the last decade, the infection remains costly and is an important cause of preventable death among non-HIV subgroups. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...