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Sample records for black death epidemics

  1. [Epidemics in nortthern Basque: black death and the Spanish influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkoreka, Anton

    2008-01-01

    The paper studies the great epidemics that have affected Europe from the middle ages until the 20th century. A special emphasis is put on in the mortality of the Black Death in 1348 (500 per thousand), the smallpox in the 18th century (150 per thousand), the spotted fever in the end of the 18th century (50 per thousand), the cholera pandemic in the 19th century (25.5 - 62.7 per thousand), the tuberculosis in the end of the 19th century (5.3 per thousand) and the mortality that the Spanish influenza produced in the beginnings of the 20th century (12.1 per thousand) in the Basque Country.

  2. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

  3. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G; Olea, R A; Yu, H-L

    2007-09-01

    This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the Indian epidemic, the disease

  4. Demography and diffusion in epidemics: malaria and black death spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, J; Ghassani, M; Mintsa, J; Rachdi, M; Waku, J; Demongeot, J

    2010-09-01

    The classical models of epidemics dynamics by Ross and McKendrick have to be revisited in order to incorporate elements coming from the demography (fecundity, mortality and migration) both of host and vector populations and from the diffusion and mutation of infectious agents. The classical approach is indeed dealing with populations supposed to be constant during the epidemic wave, but the presently observed pandemics show duration of their spread during years imposing to take into account the host and vector population changes as well as the transient or permanent migration and diffusion of hosts (susceptible or infected), as well as vectors and infectious agents. Two examples are presented, one concerning the malaria in Mali and the other the plague at the middle-age.

  5. Duration of urban mortality for the 14th-century Black Death epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olea, Ricardo A; Christakos, George

    2005-06-01

    The Black Death epidemic of 1347-1351 was one of the most serious catastrophes in human history, yet it continues to be imperfectly described because of the small and often uncertain amount of information recorded and preserved. Analysis of data from 53 cities, with 200 to 120,000 residents, shows a relationship between urban population at the beginning of the epidemic and duration of the epidemic, thus throwing some light on the characteristics of the pestilence. A further relevance of the finding is its utility for estimating and resolving contradictory information. On a first application, we show that the population and fatalities of London in all likelihood were higher than the most widely accepted estimates and that those of Florence and Paris must have been smaller.

  6. Epidemic waves of the Black Death in the Byzantine Empire (1347-1453 AD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiamis, Costas; Poulakou-Rebelakou, Effie; Tsakris, Athanassios; Petridou, Eleni

    2011-09-01

    The lack of valid demographic data and the literary ambiguities of the Byzantine chroniclers raise questions about the actual size and mortality rate of the Black Death in the Byzantine Empire. This study presents for the first time a quantitative overview of the Black Death in Byzantium for the period 1347-1453. Our data were obtained from descriptions of the plague, by prominent Byzantine historians and scholars, grouped by time of appearance and geographical spread. During the period 1347-1453, a total of 61 plague reports were noted, which can be distinguished in nine major epidemic waves, 11 local outbreaks and 16 disease-free periods. The capital Constantinople and the Venetian colonies of the Ionian and Aegean Sea were the areas most affected by the plague. The epidemic waves of the Black Death in Byzantium had a total average duration of 3.2 years. Scientific ignorance of the nature of the disease, a turbulent period of warfare and an organized maritime network seem to have contributed to the spread of the disease. Employing quantitative analysis, our multidisciplinary study sheds light from various standpoints on the evolution and dynamic of the plague in the South-eastern Mediterranean during the 14th and 15th centuries, despite the lack of sound morbidity and mortality data.

  7. Contribution of volcanic forcing to the initiation of the Black Death Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fell, Henry; Baldini, James; Dodds, Ben

    2017-04-01

    The 14th Century plague epidemic, commonly termed the Black Death, coincided with the tumultuous climatic shift from the relative stability of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the initiation of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Plague is predominantly a vector borne disease that is spread through the transmission of the Yersinia pestis bacteria. This bacterium may have originated in the rodent populations of the Tibetan Plateau and later spread rapidly westward though Eurasia after vector transmission to humans. Several studies have determined that Asian rodent and vector populations are highly sensitive to climatic perturbations. The Samalas eruption of 1257 was the largest injection of aerosols in the Common Era and therefore probably had a significant climatic effect. Through a range of proxy records across Eurasia we reconstruct the climate for the period immediately preceding the outbreak of plague. This study investigates the interaction between the Samalas eruption of 1257, the climatic response to the event and the potential effect on the initiation of the Black Death epidemic which shaped population and culture across Eurasia for centuries.

  8. Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348-1350.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewitte, Sharon N; Hughes-Morey, Gail

    2012-05-01

    Recent research has shown that preexisting health condition affected an individual's risk of dying during the 14th-century Black Death. However, a previous study of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality during the epidemic failed to find a relationship between the two; this result is perhaps surprising given the well-documented inverse association between stature and mortality in human populations. We suggest that the previous study used an analytical approach that was more complex than was necessary for an assessment of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality. This study presents a reanalysis of data on adult stature and age-at-death during the Black Death in London, 1348-1350 AD. The results indicate that short stature increased risks of mortality during the medieval epidemic, consistent with previous work that revealed a negative effect of poor health on risk of mortality during the Black Death. However, the results from a normal, non-epidemic mortality comparison sample do not show an association between stature and risks of mortality among adults under conditions of normal mortality. Fisher's exact tests, used to determine whether individuals who were growing during the Great Famine of 1315-1322 were more likely to be of short stature than those who did not endure the famine, revealed no differences between the two groups, suggesting that the famine was not a source of variation in stature among those who died during the Black Death.

  9. Health in post-Black Death London (1350-1538): age patterns of periosteal new bone formation in a post-epidemic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-10-01

    Previous research has shown that the Black Death targeted older adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. This project investigates whether this selectivity of the Black Death, combined with post-epidemic rising standards of living, led to significant improvements in patterns of skeletal stress markers, and by inference in health, among survivors and their descendants. Patterns of periosteal lesions (which have been previously shown, using hazard analysis, to be associated with elevated risks of mortality in medieval London) are compared between samples from pre-Black Death (c. 1,000-1,300, n = 464) and post-Black Death (c. 1,350-1,538, n = 133) London cemeteries. To avoid the assumptions that stress markers alone provide a direct measure of health and that a change in frequencies of the stress marker by itself indicates changes in health, this study assesses age-patterns of the stress marker to obtain a more nuanced understanding of the population-level effects of an epidemic disease. Age-at-death in these samples is estimated using transition analysis, which provides point estimates of age even for the oldest adults in these samples and thus allows for an examination of physiological stress across the lifespan. The frequency of lesions is significantly higher in the post-Black Death sample, which, at face value, might indicate a general decline in health. However, a significant positive association between age and periosteal lesions, as well as a significantly higher number of older adults in the post-Black Death sample more likely suggests improvements in health following the epidemic. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. The Black Death in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloan, A W

    1981-04-25

    From 1348 to 1350 Europe was devastated by an epidemic of plague, called at the time the Great Mortality and later the Black Death. The epidemic reached southern Europe from the Middle East and spread northward, reaching England in June 1348. Contemporary descriptions leave no doubt of the diagnosis, but estimates of the mortality differ widely owing to lack of contemporary statistics; in England it was probably between one-third and one-half of the population. The Black Death and subsequent plague epidemics in the 14th century had marked social and economic effects, reduced the prestige of the Church and off the medical profession, and were a factor in the social unrest which led to the Renaissance of the Reformation.

  11. What caused the Black Death?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, C J; Scott, S

    2005-05-01

    For the whole of the 20th century it was believed that the Black Death and all the plagues of Europe (1347-1670) were epidemics of bubonic plague. This review presents evidence that this view is incorrect and that the disease was a viral haemorrhagic fever, characterised by a long incubation period of 32 days, which allowed it to be spread widely even with the limited transport of the Middle Ages. It is suggested that haemorrhagic plague emerged from its animal host in Ethiopia and struck repeatedly at European/Asian civilisations, before appearing as the Black Death. The CCR5-Delta32 mutation confers protection against HIV-1 in an average of 10% of the people of European origin today. It is suggested that all the Deltaccr5 alleles originated from a single mutation event that occurred before 1000 BC and the subsequent epidemics of haemorrhagic plague gently forced up its frequency to 5 x 10(-5) at the time of the Black Death. Epidemics of haemorrhagic plague over the next three centuries then steadily raised the frequency in Europe (but not elsewhere) to present day values.

  12. [The black death in Norway].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oeding, P

    1990-06-30

    The old Icelandic annals tell that the Black Death came to Bergen, Norway, in 1349 with a ship from England. This was probably at the beginning of September. From Bergen the plague spread rapidly northwards and southwards along the coast and over land to Eastern Norway. The Black Death remained in Norway for approximately six months. The epidemic must have been started by infected black rats and rat fleas in the grain cargo of the ship. The account in the annals, and experiences from other countries, indicate that pneumonic plague was dominant in Bergen at the start of the epidemic. After that the Black Death must have spread partly as pneumonic plague but mainly probably as bubonic plague, transmitted via human fleas from person to person. The rats cannot have played a part except in the initial phase. The annals say that 2/3 of Norway's population died. This is probably a big exaggeration. The mortality in Norway can hardly have been more than 40-50%. Even this is high compared with an estimated mortality of approximately 33% in England and on the continent.

  13. Selectivity of Black Death mortality with respect to preexisting health

    OpenAIRE

    DeWitte, Sharon N.; Wood, James W.

    2008-01-01

    Was the mortality associated with the deadliest known epidemic in human history, the Black Death of 1347–1351, selective with respect to preexisting health conditions (“frailty”)? Many researchers have assumed that the Black Death was so virulent, and the European population so immunologically naïve, that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, irrespective of age, sex, or frailty. If this were true, Black Death cemeteries would provide unbiased cross-sections of demographic and epidemiological...

  14. [Black Death in Constantinople (1343-1466].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congourdeau, M H

    1999-01-01

    The Black Death visited Constantinople eleven times between 1348, when the epidemic surged in the Mediterranean world, and 1466 when our inquiry ends. We know of these visits from the writings of eye-witnesses who describe their experiences in correspondence written at that time, in stories reconstructed retrospectively, or in theological discussions. After having related the story of these eleven epidemic episodes, this article will try to catch, through these sources, the medical perception of the plague by contemporaries, its social consequences and its psychological, spiritual and theological repercussions.

  15. Saint Sebastian and the Black Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelpi, A P

    1998-06-01

    The martyrdom of Saint Sebastian is one of the most enduring themes in Western religious art. The execution scene so often portrayed - with the Saint transfixed with arrows - is based on the legend about his life and death during the reign of the Roman emperor, Diocletian. However, it is the symbolic association of arrows with the Black Death - during the Middle Ages and during the Renaissance - which identifies Sebastian as the patron saint of plague victims. After more than four centuries of recurrent epidemics, the plague died out in Europe; but the image of St. Sebastian continued to inspire artists until the end of the 19th century.

  16. Contesting the Cause and Severity of the Black Death: A Review Essay

    OpenAIRE

    Noymer, A.

    2007-01-01

    The essay is a book review of Ole J. Benedictow's "The Black Death, 1346-1353: The Complete History". It discusses the history, demography, and epidemiology of the Black Death, an epidemic that struck fourteenth-century Europe with a severity that has not be equaled by any other epidemic in recorded history, before or since.

  17. The black death past and present. 2. Some historical problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slack, P

    1989-01-01

    This paper looks, from a historian's point of view, at the black death and the epidemics of plague which succeeded it in Europe from the fourteenth to the seventeenth centuries. It identifies the controversial questions, of medical as well as historical interest, which have been raised by recent work. These include the origins of plague epidemics, the role of rodents and insect vectors in them, and the reasons for their disappearance from western Europe.

  18. Selectivity of black death mortality with respect to preexisting health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N; Wood, James W

    2008-02-05

    Was the mortality associated with the deadliest known epidemic in human history, the Black Death of 1347-1351, selective with respect to preexisting health conditions ("frailty")? Many researchers have assumed that the Black Death was so virulent, and the European population so immunologically naïve, that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, irrespective of age, sex, or frailty. If this were true, Black Death cemeteries would provide unbiased cross-sections of demographic and epidemiological conditions in 14th-century Europe. Using skeletal remains from medieval England and Denmark, new methods of paleodemographic age estimation, and a recent multistate model of selective mortality, we test the assumption that the mid-14th-century Black Death killed indiscriminately. Skeletons from the East Smithfield Black Death cemetery in London are compared with normal, nonepidemic cemetery samples from two medieval Danish towns (Viborg and Odense). The results suggest that the Black Death did not kill indiscriminately-that it was, in fact, selective with respect to frailty, although probably not as strongly selective as normal mortality.

  19. Distinct clones of Yersinia pestis caused the black death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Haensch

    Full Text Available From AD 1347 to AD 1353, the Black Death killed tens of millions of people in Europe, leaving misery and devastation in its wake, with successive epidemics ravaging the continent until the 18(th century. The etiology of this disease has remained highly controversial, ranging from claims based on genetics and the historical descriptions of symptoms that it was caused by Yersinia pestis to conclusions that it must have been caused by other pathogens. It has also been disputed whether plague had the same etiology in northern and southern Europe. Here we identified DNA and protein signatures specific for Y. pestis in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that were associated archaeologically with the Black Death and subsequent resurgences. We confirm that Y. pestis caused the Black Death and later epidemics on the entire European continent over the course of four centuries. Furthermore, on the basis of 17 single nucleotide polymorphisms plus the absence of a deletion in glpD gene, our aDNA results identified two previously unknown but related clades of Y. pestis associated with distinct medieval mass graves. These findings suggest that plague was imported to Europe on two or more occasions, each following a distinct route. These two clades are ancestral to modern isolates of Y. pestis biovars Orientalis and Medievalis. Our results clarify the etiology of the Black Death and provide a paradigm for a detailed historical reconstruction of the infection routes followed by this disease.

  20. Distinct clones of Yersinia pestis caused the black death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haensch, Stephanie; Bianucci, Raffaella; Signoli, Michel; Rajerison, Minoarisoa; Schultz, Michael; Kacki, Sacha; Vermunt, Marco; Weston, Darlene A; Hurst, Derek; Achtman, Mark; Carniel, Elisabeth; Bramanti, Barbara

    2010-10-07

    From AD 1347 to AD 1353, the Black Death killed tens of millions of people in Europe, leaving misery and devastation in its wake, with successive epidemics ravaging the continent until the 18(th) century. The etiology of this disease has remained highly controversial, ranging from claims based on genetics and the historical descriptions of symptoms that it was caused by Yersinia pestis to conclusions that it must have been caused by other pathogens. It has also been disputed whether plague had the same etiology in northern and southern Europe. Here we identified DNA and protein signatures specific for Y. pestis in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that were associated archaeologically with the Black Death and subsequent resurgences. We confirm that Y. pestis caused the Black Death and later epidemics on the entire European continent over the course of four centuries. Furthermore, on the basis of 17 single nucleotide polymorphisms plus the absence of a deletion in glpD gene, our aDNA results identified two previously unknown but related clades of Y. pestis associated with distinct medieval mass graves. These findings suggest that plague was imported to Europe on two or more occasions, each following a distinct route. These two clades are ancestral to modern isolates of Y. pestis biovars Orientalis and Medievalis. Our results clarify the etiology of the Black Death and provide a paradigm for a detailed historical reconstruction of the infection routes followed by this disease.

  1. Age Patterns of Mortality During the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewitte, Sharon N

    2010-12-01

    This paper examines adult age-specific mortality patterns of one of the most devastating epidemics in recorded history, the Black Death of A.D. 1347-351. The goal was to determine whether the epidemic affected all ages equally or if it targeted certain age groups. Analyses were done using a sample of 337 individuals excavated from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, which contains only individuals who died during the Black Death in London in 1349-1350. The age patterns from East Smithfield were compared to a sample of 207 individuals who died from non-epidemic causes of mortality. Ages were estimated using the method of transition analysis, and age-specific mortality was evaluated using a hazards model. The results indicate that the risk of mortality during the Black Death increased with adult age, and therefore that age had an effect on risk of death during the epidemic. The age patterns in the Black Death cemetery were similar to those from the non-epidemic mortality sample. The results from this study are consistent with previous findings suggesting that despite the devastating nature of the Black Death, the 14(th)-century disease had general patterns of selectivity that were similar to those associated with normal medieval mortality.

  2. Was the black death in India and China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, George D

    2011-01-01

    Firsthand accounts of the Black Death in Europe and the Middle East and many subsequent historians have assumed that the pandemic originated in Asia and ravaged China and India before reaching the West. One reason for this conviction among modern historians is that the plague in the nineteenth century originated and did its worst damage in these countries. But a close examination of the sources on the Delhi Sultanate and the Yuan Dynasty provides no evidence of any serious epidemic in fourteenth-century India and no specific evidence of plague among the many troubles that afflicted fourteenth-century China.

  3. The effect of sex on risk of mortality during the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2009-06-01

    The Black Death of 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, and though it is frequently assumed that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, recent research suggests that the disease was selective, at least with respect to frailty. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Black Death was similarly selective with respect to biological sex-that is, did either sex face an elevated risk during the epidemic or were men and women at equal risk of dying? A sample of 298 victims of the Black Death, from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, is compared to a pre-Black Death normal mortality sample of 194 individuals from two Danish urban cemeteries, St Mikkel Church (Viborg) and St Albani Church (Odense). To assess the effect of sex on risk of death, sex is modeled as a covariate affecting the Gompertz-Makeham model of adult mortality. The results suggest that sex did not strongly affect risk of death in either the normal mortality or Black Death samples. These results are important for improving our understanding of Black Death mortality patterns. This is essential for understanding the effects the Black Death had on European populations, and the methods used here can potentially be informatively applied to investigations of other episodes of epidemic diseases in past populations. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  4. Age Patterns of Mortality During the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349–1350

    OpenAIRE

    DeWitte, Sharon N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines adult age-specific mortality patterns of one of the most devastating epidemics in recorded history, the Black Death of A.D. 1347–351. The goal was to determine whether the epidemic affected all ages equally or if it targeted certain age groups. Analyses were done using a sample of 337 individuals excavated from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, which contains only individuals who died during the Black Death in London in 1349–1350. The age patterns from East Smithfiel...

  5. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  6. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon N DeWitte

    Full Text Available The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75 and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246 cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143. The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133 was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  7. The Impact of the Black Death on the Golden Horde: Politics, Economy, Society, Civilization

    OpenAIRE

    Uli Schamiloglu

    2017-01-01

    Research objectives and materials: This essay offers an overview of the political, economic, social, and cultural consequences of the Black Death (the epidemic of bubonic plague cause by the bacteria Yersinia pestis) in the territories of the Golden Horde in the 14th–15th centuries. It considers the framework which has been developed for medieval Europe and the Middle East. It considers whether there was a medieval growth in population in the Golden Horde prior to the arrival of the Black Dea...

  8. Stress, sex, and plague: Patterns of developmental stress and survival in pre- and post-Black Death London.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2018-01-01

    Previous research revealed declines in survivorship in London before the Black Death (c. 1346-1353), and improvements in survivorship following the epidemic. These trends indicate that there were declines in general levels of health before the Black Death and improvements thereof afterwards. This study expands on previous research by examining whether changes in survivorship were consistent between the sexes, and how patterns of developmental stress markers changed before and after the Black Death. This study uses samples from London cemeteries dated to one of three periods: Early Pre-Black Death (1000-1200 AD, n = 255), Late Pre-Black Death (1200-1250 AD, n = 247), or Post-Black Death (1350-1540 AD n = 329). Temporal trends in survivorship are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and trends in tibial length (as a proxy for stature) and linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH) are assessed using t-tests and Chi-square tests, respectively. Survivorship for both sexes decreased before the Black Death and increased afterwards. For males, LEH frequencies increased and stature decreased before the epidemic, and LEH declined and stature increased after the Black Death. For females, the only significant change with respect to developmental stress markers was a decrease in stature after the Black Death. These results might reflect variation between the sexes in sensitivity to stressors, the effects of nutrition on pubertal timing, disproportionate access to dietary resources for males in the aftermath of the Black Death, the disproportionate deaths of frail individuals during the epidemic, or some combination of these factors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Black Humor in the Face of Death

    OpenAIRE

    Margot Coppin; Jean-Luc Gaspard

    2017-01-01

    Dying subjects that resort to humor, whom we shall call "humorants", question themselves and especially us. How could they possibly allow themselves such an outrage at this precise moment of their existence?  When they do so, it is through the particular and rather crude form of black humor. On the basis of Freud's and Lacan's contributions regarding the question of death and of the clinical exercise of palliative care, the article addresses the expression of a linguistic jouissance on the pa...

  10. Setting the stage for medieval plague: Pre-black death trends in survival and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2015-11-01

    The 14(th) -century Black Death was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, killing tens of millions of people in a short period of time. It is not clear why mortality rates during the epidemic were so high. One possibility is that the affected human populations were particularly stressed in the 14(th) century, perhaps as a result of repeated famines in areas such as England. This project examines survival and mortality in two pre-Black Death time periods, 11-12(th) centuries vs 13(th) century CE, to determine if demographic conditions were deteriorating before the epidemic occurred. This study is done using a sample of individuals from several London cemeteries that have been dated, in whole or in part, either to the 11-12(th) centuries (n = 339) or 13(th) century (n = 258). Temporal trends in survivorship and mortality are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and by modeling time period as a covariate affecting the Gompertz hazard of adult mortality. The age-at-death distributions from the two pre-Black Death time periods are significantly different, with fewer older adults in 13(th) century. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicate reductions in survival before the Black Death, with significantly lower survival in the 13(th) century (Mantel Cox p Black Death. Together, these results suggest that health in general was declining in the 13(th) century, and this might have led to high mortality during the Black Death. This highlights the importance of considering human context to understand disease in past and living human populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. [The black death in Christian and Muslim Occident, 1347-1353].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Stephane; Gualde, Norbert

    2008-01-01

    Between the years 1346 and 1353, a terrible epidemic swept over Western Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, causing catastrophic losses of population everywhere, both in the rural areas and in towns and cities. The Black Death was a disease of such magnitude that it not only shook the Old World to its economic and social foundations but changed the course of human history. The authors considered and analyzed many studies on the Black Death published in different languages. In the present paper they report medical and epidemiological specificities of the pandemic as well as its geographical origins and the routes of its spread.

  12. Black Humor in the Face of Death

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    Margot Coppin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Dying subjects that resort to humor, whom we shall call "humorants", question themselves and especially us. How could they possibly allow themselves such an outrage at this precise moment of their existence?  When they do so, it is through the particular and rather crude form of black humor. On the basis of Freud's and Lacan's contributions regarding the question of death and of the clinical exercise of palliative care, the article addresses the expression of a linguistic jouissance on the part of subjects who are on the way to that which will forever calm their drives - the place in which the joint influence of capitalist and scientific discourse make it possible to affirm the accidental nature of death in our modern world. In this sense, "humorants" seem to be responding to the anxious perplexity of many dying patients when confronted by the traumatic real.

  13. Increased number of deaths during a chikungunya epidemic in Pernambuco, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Carlos Alexandre Antunes de; Teixeira, Maria Glória

    2017-09-01

    In early 2016, it was suspected that there were more deaths in Pernambuco than in previous years during an epidemic of chikungunya. This study tested whether there was an increased number of deaths and, if so, whether this increase could be related to a chikungunya epidemic. Indeed, there was an increase of 4235 deaths in 2016 compared to the average of the four previous years, and the highest differences were found during the peak period of the epidemic. It was evident that not all of these deaths could be attributed to complications of chikungunya. However, considering the temporal overlap, some of these deaths may have been caused by the aggravation of pre-existing comorbidities or complications caused directly by chikungunya virus infection.

  14. The temporal dynamics of the fourteenth-century Black Death: new evidence from English ecclesiastical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, James W; Ferrell, Rebecca J; Dewitte-Aviña, Sharon N

    2003-08-01

    Recent research has questioned whether the European Black Death of 1347-1351 could possibly have been caused by the bubonic plague bacillus Yersinia pestis, as has been assumed for over a century. Central to the arguments both for and against involvement of Y. pestis has been a comparison of the temporal dynamics observed in confirmed outbreaks of bubonic plague in early-20th-century India, versus those reconstructed for the Black Death from English church records--specifically, from lists of institutions (appointments) to vacated benefices contained in surviving bishops' registers. This comparison is, however, based on a statistical error arising from the fact that most of the bishops' registers give only the dates of institution and not the dates of death. Failure to correct for a distributed (as opposed to constant) lag time from death to institution has made it look as if the Black Death passed slowly through specific localities. This error is compounded by a failure to disaggregate the information from the bishops' registers to a geographical level that is genuinely comparable to the modern data. A sample of 235 deaths from the bishop's register of Coventry and Lichfield, the only English register to list both date of death and date of institution, shows that the Black Death swept through local areas much more rapidly than has previously been thought. This finding is consistent with those of earlier studies showing that the Black Death spread too rapidly between locales to have been a zoonosis such as bubonic plague. A further analysis of the determinants of the lag between death and institution, designed to provide a basis for reexamining other bishops' registers that do not provide information on date of death, shows that the distribution of lags could vary significantly by time and space even during a single epidemic outbreak.

  15. Validation of Inverse Seasonal Peak Mortality in Medieval Plagues, Including the Black Death, in Comparison to Modern Yersinia pestis-Variant Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welford, Mark R.; Bossak, Brian H.

    2009-01-01

    Background Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent “plagues”) and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900±15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. Methodology/Principal Findings We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. Conclusions/Significance These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics. PMID:20027294

  16. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

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    Mark R Welford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues" and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  17. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welford, Mark R; Bossak, Brian H

    2009-12-22

    Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  18. Young, Black, and Sentenced To Die: Black Males and the Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Janice

    1996-01-01

    Explores the death penalty as imposed on young black males in the United States and examines the disparity in death penalty rates for homicides with black offenders and white victims. States continue to impose the death penalty rather than viewing youth violence as a failure of the social system. (SLD)

  19. Historical Y. pestis Genomes Reveal the European Black Death as the Source of Ancient and Modern Plague Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyrou, Maria A; Tukhbatova, Rezeda I; Feldman, Michal; Drath, Joanna; Kacki, Sacha; Beltrán de Heredia, Julia; Arnold, Susanne; Sitdikov, Airat G; Castex, Dominique; Wahl, Joachim; Gazimzyanov, Ilgizar R; Nurgaliev, Danis K; Herbig, Alexander; Bos, Kirsten I; Krause, Johannes

    2016-06-08

    Ancient DNA analysis has revealed an involvement of the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis in several historical pandemics, including the second plague pandemic (Europe, mid-14(th) century Black Death until the mid-18(th) century AD). Here we present reconstructed Y. pestis genomes from plague victims of the Black Death and two subsequent historical outbreaks spanning Europe and its vicinity, namely Barcelona, Spain (1300-1420 cal AD), Bolgar City, Russia (1362-1400 AD), and Ellwangen, Germany (1485-1627 cal AD). Our results provide support for (1) a single entry of Y. pestis in Europe during the Black Death, (2) a wave of plague that traveled toward Asia to later become the source population for contemporary worldwide epidemics, and (3) the presence of an historical European plague focus involved in post-Black Death outbreaks that is now likely extinct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  1. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  2. A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Kirsten I; Schuenemann, Verena J; Golding, G Brian; Burbano, Hernán A; Waglechner, Nicholas; Coombes, Brian K; McPhee, Joseph B; DeWitte, Sharon N; Meyer, Matthias; Schmedes, Sarah; Wood, James; Earn, David J D; Herring, D Ann; Bauer, Peter; Poinar, Hendrik N; Krause, Johannes

    2011-10-12

    Technological advances in DNA recovery and sequencing have drastically expanded the scope of genetic analyses of ancient specimens to the extent that full genomic investigations are now feasible and are quickly becoming standard. This trend has important implications for infectious disease research because genomic data from ancient microbes may help to elucidate mechanisms of pathogen evolution and adaptation for emerging and re-emerging infections. Here we report a reconstructed ancient genome of Yersinia pestis at 30-fold average coverage from Black Death victims securely dated to episodes of pestilence-associated mortality in London, England, 1348-1350. Genetic architecture and phylogenetic analysis indicate that the ancient organism is ancestral to most extant strains and sits very close to the ancestral node of all Y. pestis commonly associated with human infection. Temporal estimates suggest that the Black Death of 1347-1351 was the main historical event responsible for the introduction and widespread dissemination of the ancestor to all currently circulating Y. pestis strains pathogenic to humans, and further indicates that contemporary Y. pestis epidemics have their origins in the medieval era. Comparisons against modern genomes reveal no unique derived positions in the medieval organism, indicating that the perceived increased virulence of the disease during the Black Death may not have been due to bacterial phenotype. These findings support the notion that factors other than microbial genetics, such as environment, vector dynamics and host susceptibility, should be at the forefront of epidemiological discussions regarding emerging Y. pestis infections.

  3. Historiography of the Epidemic of “Black Death” on the Territory of Juchid Ulus (1814–2016

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    T.F. Khaydarov

    2017-03-01

    thorough theoretical study of a subject in the field of biology of the plague, a historical study on the “Black Death in Russia” is extremely inconsistent and did not yet form a united research school. Against this background, the historiography of the epidemicBlack Death” in the Juchid ulus is situated in a better position than the research on the plague in the North-Western Rus’.

  4. Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic.

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    Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel

    2017-03-06

    Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.

  5. Modelling the black death. A historical case study and implications for the epidemiology of bubonic plague.

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    Monecke, Stefan; Monecke, Hannelore; Monecke, Jochen

    2009-12-01

    We analysed a plague outbreak in the mining town of Freiberg in Saxony which started in May 1613 and ended in February 1614. This epidemic was selected for study because of the high quality of contemporary sources. It was possible to identify 1400 individual victims meaning that more than 10% of the population of the city perished. The outbreak was modelled by 9 differential equations describing flea, rat, and human populations. This resulted in a close fit to the historical records of this outbreak. An interesting implication of the model is that the introduction of even a small number of immune rats into an otherwise unchanged setting results in an abortive outbreak with very few human victims. Hence, the percentage of immune rats directly influences the magnitude of a human epidemic by diverting search activities of the fleas. Thus, we conclude that the spread of Rattus norvegicus, which might acquire partial herd immunity by exposure to soil- or water-borne Yersinia species due to its preference for wet habitats, contributed to the disappearance of Black Death epidemics from Europe in the 18th century. In order to prove whether or not the parameter values obtained by fitting a given outbreak are also applicable to other cases, we modelled the plague outbreak in Bombay 1905/06 using the same parameter values except for the number of humans as well as of immune and susceptible rats.

  6. The Impact of the Black Death on the Golden Horde: Politics, Economy, Society, Civilization

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    Uli Schamiloglu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Research objectives and materials: This essay offers an overview of the political, economic, social, and cultural consequences of the Black Death (the epidemic of bubonic plague cause by the bacteria Yersinia pestis in the territories of the Golden Horde in the 14th–15th centuries. It considers the framework which has been developed for medieval Europe and the Middle East. It considers whether there was a medieval growth in population in the Golden Horde prior to the arrival of the Black Death in the mid-14th century. It considers the level of depopulation and how it led to political instability. It notes how bubonic plague was used as a weapon by the Mongol armies. It considers economic consequences such as the decline in certain professions and crafts, the threat to the food supply, and the rising cost of labor which led to inflation. It also considers the social crisis brought about by the sudden death of substantial portions of the population. Results and novelty of the research: The rise in urbanization in the 13th to mid-14th century was followed by a collapse in the population and decline in urban centers beginning in the second half of the 14th century. The Black Death also led to population pressure as most sedentary centers declined, while at the same time certain sedentary areas escaped the plague, as could many nomadic populations who were less susceptible to disease. It also examines the decline in literary languages and the growth in religiosity. Finally, it considers the recovery in the population beginning in the mid-15th century.

  7. Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomashek, Kay M.; Gregory, Christopher J.; Rivera Sánchez, Aidsa; Bartek, Matthew A.; Garcia Rivera, Enid J.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Sun, Wellington

    2012-01-01

    Background The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care. Methods Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death. Results Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances. Conclusions During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring. PMID:22530072

  8. Global stability of a delayed SIR epidemic model with density dependent birth and death rates

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    Yoshida, Naoki; Hara, Tadayuki

    2007-04-01

    An SIR epidemic model with density dependent birth and death rates is formulated. In our model it is assumed that the total number of the population is governed by logistic equation. The transmission of infection is assumed to be of the standard form, namely proportional to I(t-h)/N(t-h) where N(t) is the total (variable) population size, I(t) is the size of the infective population and a time delay h is a fixed time during which the infectious agents develop in the vector. We consider transmission dynamics for the model. Stability of an endemic equilibrium is investigated. The stability result is stated in terms of a threshold parameter, that is, a basic reproduction number R0.

  9. SOME REASONS OF DISPLACES OF THE NOMADIC TRIBES IN EURASIA AND EXAMPLE OF THE BLACK DEATH IN CAFFA, 1346

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    Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet TEZCAN

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The nomadic tribes in Eurasian steppes, adopted a manner oflife in nomadism, were scarcely abandoning their own residences, towhich caused some factors like generally epidemics, famines, locustattacks, or dangerous foreign threats just as oppressions by theXiongnu (to the Yuezhi or the Chinese (to the Xiongnu etc. Beingone of the reasons which led the nomadic tribes as far as to theWestern Asia and the Middle Europe, the epidemics appeared also inEurasia from the very beginnings of the history and during the MiddleAges, and spread out in the Central Asia that was on the greatcommercial routes, through the great Silk Roads in general.The epidemic named as “Black Death” appeared north of theBlack Sea in Caffa in 1346 and very influenced Medieval Europenegatively, which, there existed the period of the “Hundred Years’War”. However, there is not any exact information about its origin.According to the available information and the report by Gabriele de’Mussi, it occurred first in China in 1320s, and expanded into the NearEast rapidly through the invasion routes of the Mongol armies andcommercial ones. When Janibek Khan, the khan of the Golden Hordebegan again to besiege Caffa in 1345, the Black Death occurredamong the Mongol army. And the two Genoese ships, departed fromCaffa and came in the Mediterranean Sea in 1347, caused itsexpansion to the whole European countries, except for only Polandand Czechoslovakia, in 1348-49, and then, to Russia in 1351-53.Consequently, thirty per cent of the European population perished.As to how the epidemic influenced the nomadic world inEurasia, there is not enough information about it. However, thanks toit, we can reach to some interesting valuable data about Mongolstrategies of warfare: upon that many Mongolian soldiers of theMongolian army died due to this epidemic, the Mongol khan heldresponsible the Genoese in Caffa for the death. He made their corpses thrown into the citadel by catapults, and then

  10. Dengue deaths in Puerto Rico: lessons learned from the 2007 epidemic.

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    Kay M Tomashek

    Full Text Available The incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care.Fatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death.Among 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years, including five children aged < 15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3-48 hours in the emergency department (ED before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances.During a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient

  11. East to West or West to East: Plague Spread after the Black Death

    OpenAIRE

    Yujun Cui

    2016-01-01

    The Black Death, one of the most destructive pandemics in human history, has claimed millions of lives and considerably influenced human civilization. Following the Black Death, plague outbreaks in Europe lasted for several hundred years until late the 18th century. It is generally presumed that the Black Death was caused by Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) and spread from China to Europe in one or more waves. However, because of the lack of etiological research during the medieval period and abse...

  12. The black death and the transformation of the west

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    Abel López

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Herlihy, David, The Black Death and the Transformation of the West. Edited with an Introduction by Samuel K. Cohn, Jr., Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1997, 117 p. Este libro reúne tres conferencias que el autor leyó, en 1985, en la Universidad de Maine. Herlihy duda de que la peste de 1348 fuese la hoy denominada peste bubónica, causada por el bacilo yersinia pestis, transmitido a los humanos por las pulgas las cuales, a su vez, vivian en las ratas. Sustenta sus dudas en dos argumentos. No hay evidencias de una epizootia de ratas cuya muerte sería condición previa para que las pulgas buscasen a los humanos.

  13. Epidemic characteristics of two classic SIS models with disease-induced death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengqin; Li, Jianquan; Li, Jia

    2017-07-07

    The epidemic characteristics of two classic SIS epidemic models, including the epidemic size, peak and turning point, are investigated. The two SIS models are with bilinear and standard incidences, respectively. For the SIS models, the susceptible individuals generally can be divided into two classes. One consists of the individuals who had not been infected by the infection, the other are individuals who have been infected and recovered from the infection. Based on this fact, the classic SIS epidemic models need to be reformulated in order to analyze the turning points of the epidemic for various cumulative cases in detail. The obtained results illustrate how to determine the epidemic characteristics of the two models, and demonstrate their dependence on the initial conditions and the relative parameters of the models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. East to West or West to East: Plague Spread after the Black Death

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    Yujun Cui

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Black Death, one of the most destructive pandemics in human history, has claimed millions of lives and considerably influenced human civilization. Following the Black Death, plague outbreaks in Europe lasted for several hundred years until late the 18th century. It is generally presumed that the Black Death was caused by Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis and spread from China to Europe in one or more waves. However, because of the lack of etiological research during the medieval period and absence of a natural plague focus in Europe today, the causative agent of this pandemic and its transmission has led to long-term debate among researchers. Thus, several questions remain including whether Y. pestis actually caused the Black Death, whether a natural plague focus existed in medieval Europe and led to post-Black Death plague outbreaks, and whether the Europe plague focus played a role in the spread and evolution of Y. pestis.

  15. The Black Mountains turtlebacks: Rosetta stones of Death Valley tectonics

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    Miller, Marli B.; Pavlis, Terry L.

    2005-12-01

    The Black Mountains turtlebacks expose mid-crustal rock along the western front of the Black Mountains. As such, they provide keys to understanding the Tertiary structural evolution of Death Valley, and because of the outstanding rock exposure, they also provide valuable natural laboratories for observing structural processes. There are three turtlebacks: the Badwater turtleback in the north, the Copper Canyon turtleback, and the Mormon Point turtleback in the south. Although important differences exist among them, each turtleback displays a doubly plunging antiformal core of metamorphic and igneous rock and a brittle fault contact to the northwest that is structurally overlain by Miocene-Pleistocene volcanic and/or sedimentary rock. The turtleback cores contain mylonitic rocks that record an early period of top-southeastward directed shear followed by top-northwestward directed shear. The earlier formed mylonites are cut by, and locally appear concurrent with, 55-61 Ma pegmatite. We interpret these fabrics as related to large-scale, basement-involved thrust faults at the turtlebacks, now preserved as areally-extensive, metamorphosed, basement over younger-cover contacts. The younger, and far more pervasive, mylonites record late Tertiary extensional unroofing of the turtleback footwalls from mid-crustal depths. Available geochronology suggests that they cooled through 300 °C at different times: 13 Ma at Badwater; 6 Ma at Copper Canyon; 8 Ma at Mormon Point. At Mormon Point and Copper Canyon turtlebacks these dates record cooling of the metamorphic assemblages from beneath the floor of an ˜ 11 Ma Tertiary plutonic complex. Collectively these relationships suggest that the turtlebacks record initiation of ductile extension before ˜ 14 Ma followed by injection of a large plutonic complex along the ductile shear zone. Ductile deformation continued during extensional uplift until the rocks cooled below temperatures for crystal plastic deformation by 6-8 Ma

  16. Epidemiology of infant death among black and white non-Hispanic populations in Hampton Roads, Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emuren, Leonard; Chauhan, Suneet; Vroman, Richard; Beydoun, Hind

    2012-05-01

    To evaluate the presence of racial disparities in infant mortality rates and assess risk factors for infant death among black and white populations in Hampton Roads, Virginia. A retrospective study with secondary analyses of linked birth/death certificate data was conducted using a sample of 201,610 live-born infants and 1659 infant deaths identified between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2008 in Hampton Roads. Infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates were significantly (P black compared with white populations. Racial disparities were noted whereby black infants were significantly (P black infants dying in the first year of life than white infants. Among blacks, the odds of infant death were inversely related to maternal education. Among whites, the odds of infant death declined with increasing parity. Among black and white populations, history of child death, presence of maternal morbidities and the Kotelchuck Maternal Utilization of Prenatal Care Index were key determinants of infant death. Black infants are at higher odds of dying compared with white infants in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Continued efforts should target prenatal care, preterm delivery, and low-birth-weight infants and neonates to reduce infant mortality rates.

  17. Famine, the Black Death, and health in fourteenth-century London

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    Daniel Antoine

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the first half of the fourteenth century two catastrophes struck the population of Europe: the Great Famine and the Black Death. The latter has been extensively studied, but much less is known about the biological effects of the Great Famine. A large assemblage of skeletal remains from one of the Black Death burial grounds, the Royal Mint cemetery in London, provides a unique opportunity to investigate these effects by analyzing the teeth of individuals who survived the famine but died during the Black Death.

  18. Rural black women's agency within intimate partnerships amid the South African HIV epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thege, Britta

    2009-12-01

    In a particular way, the HIV pandemic exposes the prevailing gender relations and the definitions of male and female gender roles, both in intimate relationships and in the wider society. The HIV pandemic reveals the contradictions between women's legal rights and the persistence of women's cultural and sexual subordination. It reflects the impact of poverty, gender roles, culture and religion. Although HIV and AIDS cuts across class, South African rural black women's infection risk seems particularly high since they suffer notably from subordination and socio-economic hardships. Negotiating safer sex in marriage or intimate partnerships is very difficult for them in view of the traditional spaces in which they find themselves, where patriarchal structures are pervasive. Based on data obtained from a case study, this paper examines socio-cultural constraints to rural women's sexual agency in a patriarchal social order. These rules are based on a patriarchal code of respect, which is still pervasive in many aspects of the community under investigation. In terms of gender relations, the patriarchal code of respect is founded on an assumed 'naturalisation' of the two genders and the natural superiority of the male over the female. In terms of sexuality it is translated into male sex-right. The fear of HIV infection is omnipresent and results in unmarried women engaging in the negotiation of their wants and needs. Owing to the patriarchal code of respect, married women are perceived as having no choice in negotiating safer sex and are forced to put their lives at risk in contracting HIV. Unmarried women have greater although not endless choices in this regard. Although the study participants unexpectedly displayed a rather negative perception of other women, in order to strengthen women in their proximal environment the HIV epidemic may be seen as a vehicle for building solidarity among women in the community.

  19. Famine, the Black Death, and health in fourteenth-century London

    OpenAIRE

    Antoine, Daniel; Hillson, Simon

    2004-01-01

    In the first half of the fourteenth century two catastrophes struck the population of Europe: the Great Famine and the Black Death. The latter has been extensively studied, but much less is known about the biological effects of the Great Famine. A large assemblage of skeletal remains from one of the Black Death burial grounds, the Royal Mint cemetery in London, provides a unique opportunity to investigate these effects by analyzing the teeth of individuals who survived the famine but died dur...

  20. Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

    2012-01-01

    At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

  1. The Black Death and AIDS: CCR5-Delta32 in genetics and history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, S K; Weaver, L T

    2006-08-01

    Black Death and AIDS are global pandemics that have captured the popular imagination, both attracting extravagant hypotheses to account for their origins and geographical distributions. Medical scientists have recently attempted to connect these two great pandemics. Some argue that the Black Death of 1346-52 was responsible for a genetic shift that conferred a degree of resistance to HIV 1 infection, that this shift was almost unique to European descendents, and that it mirrors the intensity of Black Death mortality within Europe. Such a hypothesis is not supported by the historical evidence: the Black Death did not strike Europe alone but spread from the east, devastating regions such as China, North Africa, and the Middle East as much or even more than Europe. Further, in Europe its levels of mortality do not correspond with the geographic distribution of the proportion of descendents with this CCR5 gene. If anything, the gradient of Black Death mortality sloped in the opposite direction from that of present-day genotypes: the heaviest casualties were in the Mediterranean, the very regions whose descendents account for the lowest incidences of the HIV-1 resistant allele. We argue that closer collaboration between historians and scientists is needed to understand the selective pressures on genetic mutation, and the possible triggers for changes in genetic spatial frequencies over the past millennia. This requires care and respect for each other's methods of evaluating data.

  2. The Black Death | Matemu | Dar Es Salaam Medical Students' Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a product of literature review from journals, books and Internet search. Results From 1987-2001, the World Health Organization reported an annual average of 38,876 cases of the plague with 2847 deaths worldwide. The number of actual cases was probably much higher, given the failure of many countries to ...

  3. Prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death during an epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hak, E; Verheij, T J; van Essen, G A; Lafeber, A B; Grobbee, D E; Hoes, A W

    To predict which patients with current high-risk disease in the community may benefit most from additional preventive or therapeutic measures for influenza, we determined prognostic factors for influenza-associated hospitalization and death in a general practice-based case-control study among this

  4. White/black racial differences in risk of end-stage renal disease and death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Andy I; Rodriguez, Rudolph A; Bacchetti, Peter; Bertenthal, Daniel; Hernandez, German T; O'Hare, Ann M

    2009-07-01

    End-stage renal disease disproportionately affects black persons, but it is unknown when in the course of chronic kidney disease racial differences arise. Understanding the natural history of racial differences in kidney disease may help guide efforts to reduce disparities. We compared white/black differences in the risk of end-stage renal disease and death by level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline in a national sample of 2,015,891 veterans between 2001 and 2005. Rates of end-stage renal disease among black patients exceeded those among white patients at all levels of baseline eGFR. The adjusted hazard ratios for end-stage renal disease associated with black versus white race for patients with an eGFR > or = 90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and death among black persons at all levels of eGFR. The highest risk of mortality associated with black race also was observed among those with an eGFR 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 (hazard ratio 1.32, 95% CI, 1.27-1.36). Racial differences in the risk of end-stage renal disease appear early in the course of kidney disease and are not explained by a survival advantage among blacks. Efforts to identify and slow progression of chronic kidney disease at earlier stages may be needed to reduce racial disparities.

  5. Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossak, Brian H; Welford, Mark R

    2009-06-01

    Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available

  6. Science You Can Use Bulletin: From death comes life: Recovery and revolution in the wake of epidemic outbreaks of mountain pine beetle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl Malcolm; Chuck Rhoades; Michael Battaglia; Paula Fornwalt; Rob Hubbard; Kelly Elder; Byron Collins

    2012-01-01

    Changing climatic conditions and an abundance of dense, mature pine forests have helped to spur an epidemic of mountain pine beetles larger than any in recorded history. Millions of forested acres have been heavily impacted and have experienced extreme rates of tree mortality. This has raised concerns among many people that the death, desiccation, and decomposition of...

  7. An epidemic of the use, misuse and overdose of opioids and deaths due to overdose, in the United States and Canada: is Europe next?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helmerhorst, G. T. T.; Teunis, T.; Janssen, S. J.; Ring, D.

    2017-01-01

    The United States and Canada are in the midst of an epidemic of the use, misuse and overdose of opioids, and deaths related to overdose. This is the direct result of overstatement of the benefits and understatement of the risks of using opioids by advocates and pharmaceutical companies. Massive

  8. Blacks' Death Rate Due to Circulatory Diseases Is Positively Related to Whites' Explicit Racial Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jordan B; Hehman, Eric; Ayduk, Ozlem; Mendoza-Denton, Rodolfo

    2016-10-01

    Perceptions of racial bias have been linked to poorer circulatory health among Blacks compared with Whites. However, little is known about whether Whites' actual racial bias contributes to this racial disparity in health. We compiled racial-bias data from 1,391,632 Whites and examined whether racial bias in a given county predicted Black-White disparities in circulatory-disease risk (access to health care, diagnosis of a circulatory disease; Study 1) and circulatory-disease-related death rate (Study 2) in the same county. Results revealed that in counties where Whites reported greater racial bias, Blacks (but not Whites) reported decreased access to health care (Study 1). Furthermore, in counties where Whites reported greater racial bias, both Blacks and Whites showed increased death rates due to circulatory diseases, but this relationship was stronger for Blacks than for Whites (Study 2). These results indicate that racial disparities in risk of circulatory disease and in circulatory-disease-related death rate are more pronounced in communities where Whites harbor more explicit racial bias.

  9. The sex-selective impact of the Black Death and recurring plagues in the Southern Netherlands, 1349–1450

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curtis, Daniel; Roosen, J.

    2017-01-01

    Although recent work has begun to establish that early modern plagues had selective mortality effects, it was generally accepted that the initial outbreak of Black Death in 1347-52 was a “universal killer.” Recent bioarchaeological work, however, has argued that the Black Death was also selective

  10. Coping with Catastrophe: The Black Death of the 14th Century. A Unit of Study for Grades 7-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Anne

    This unit of study explains the causes, course, characteristics, and results of the Black Death during the 14th century. The Black Death, also known as the bubonic plague, left virtually no one untouched in Europe, Asia, and Northern Africa. Europe lost a third or more of its population. In a broader context, study of the unit alerts students to…

  11. Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years - United States, 1968-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyke, Miriam; Greer, Sophia; Odom, Erika; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Kramer, Michael; Casper, Michele

    2018-03-30

    Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. 1968-2015. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968-2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968-2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases occurring during the 1970s and 1980s followed by small but steady

  12. Ridiculed death and the dead: Black humor on the epitaphs and epigrams of the ancient Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Lađa

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Theories about black humor usually regard that it as a contemporary phenomenon and a culmination of the literary modernism and beginning of post-modernism. My intent in this paper is to refute the thesis that the black humor is a modern invention. I am going to prove its existence still in Greek antiquity, quoting and analyzing humorous epitaphs and black humor epigrams. Putting in relation black humor with the joy and humor in religious (fertility and funeral rituals, I am also going to set a question about the attitude to death and life inherent for this kind of humor, arguing that its origin should be searched in the folk tradition.

  13. [Cutaneous melanoma - "black death" of modern times? Traces in contemporary literature].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahmer, F A; Bahmer, J A

    2013-11-01

    Cutaneous melanoma, sometimes labeled as "black skin cancer", is increasing in frequency and becoming a more common literary motive. In US literature, Sylvia Plath and Charles Bukowski depicted melanoma more than 50 years ago, later Stephen King and Thomas C. Boyle. In German literature, Charlotte Roche shortly mentioned this tumor. Jörg Pönnighaus, both poet and dermatologist, intensively deals in his poems with the effects melanoma has on patients and doctors alike. Melanoma definitely is not the "Black Death" of modern times. However, the perception of this tumor as extremely malignant and as life-threatening makes melanoma a metaphor of the deadly danger of cancer.

  14. General and abdominal obesity and risk of death among black women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggs, Deborah A; Rosenberg, Lynn; Cozier, Yvette C; Wise, Lauren A; Coogan, Patricia F; Ruiz-Narvaez, Edward A; Palmer, Julie R

    2011-09-08

    Recent pooled analyses show an increased risk of death with increasing levels of the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 25.0 or higher in populations of European ancestry, a weaker association among East Asians, and no association of an increased BMI with an increased risk of death among South Asians. The limited data available on blacks indicate that the risk of death is increased only at very high levels of BMI (≥35.0). We prospectively assessed the relation of both BMI and waist circumference to the risk of death among 51,695 black women with no history of cancer or cardiovascular disease who were 21 to 69 years of age at study enrollment. Our analysis was based on follow-up data from 1995 through 2008 in the Black Women's Health Study. Multivariable proportional-hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1773 deaths identified during follow-up, 770 occurred among 33,916 women who had never smoked. Among nonsmokers, the risk of death was lowest for a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9. For a BMI above this range, the risk of death increased as the BMI increased. With a BMI of 22.5 to 24.9 as the reference category, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.44) for a BMI of 25.0 to 27.4, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.72) for a BMI of 27.5 to 29.9, 1.27 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1.64) for a BMI of 30.0 to 34.9, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.13 to 2.02) for a BMI of 35.0 to 39.9, and 2.19 (95% CI, 1.62 to 2.95) for a BMI of 40.0 to 49.9 (Pdeath from any cause among women with a BMI of less than 30.0. The risk of death from any cause among black women increased with an increasing BMI of 25.0 or higher, which is similar to the pattern observed among whites. Waist circumference appeared to be associated with an increased risk of death only among nonobese women. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).

  15. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  16. Possibility of death sentence has divergent effect on verdicts for Black and White defendants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Jack; Martin, Karin D; Kahn, Kimberly B

    2015-12-01

    When anticipating the imposition of the death penalty, jurors may be less inclined to convict defendants. On the other hand, minority defendants have been shown to be treated more punitively, particularly in capital cases. Given that the influence of anticipated sentence severity on verdicts may vary as a function of defendant race, the goal of this study was to test the independent and interactive effects of these factors. We conducted a survey-embedded experiment with a nationally representative sample to examine the effect on verdicts of sentence severity as a function of defendant race, presenting respondents with a triple murder trial summary that manipulated the maximum penalty (death vs. life without parole) and the race of the defendant. Respondents who were told life-without-parole was the maximum sentence were not significantly more likely to convict Black (67.7%) than White (66.7%) defendants. However, when death was the maximum sentence, respondents presented with Black defendants were significantly more likely to convict (80.0%) than were those with White defendants (55.1%). The results indicate that the death penalty may be a cause of racial disparities in criminal justice, and implicate threats to civil rights and to effective criminal justice. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Paleoseismology of the Southern Section of the Black Mountains and Southern Death Valley Fault Zones, Death Valley, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Marsha S.; Knott, Jeffrey R.; Mahan, Shannon

    2014-01-01

    The Death Valley Fault System (DVFS) is part of the southern Walker Lane–eastern California shear zone. The normal Black Mountains Fault Zone (BMFZ) and the right-lateral Southern Death Valley Fault Zone (SDVFZ) are two components of the DVFS. Estimates of late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates and recurrence intervals for these two fault zones are uncertain owing to poor relative age control. The BMFZ southernmost section (Section 1W) steps basinward and preserves multiple scarps in the Quaternary alluvial fans. We present optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates ranging from 27 to 4 ka of fluvial and eolian sand lenses interbedded with alluvial-fan deposits offset by the BMFZ. By cross-cutting relations, we infer that there were three separate ground-rupturing earthquakes on BMFZ Section 1W with vertical displacement between 5.5 m and 2.75 m. The slip-rate estimate is ∼0.2 to 1.8 mm/yr, with an earthquake recurrence interval of 4,500 to 2,000 years. Slip-per-event measurements indicate Mw 7.0 to 7.2 earthquakes. The 27–4-ka OSL-dated alluvial fans also overlie the putative Cinder Hill tephra layer. Cinder Hill is offset ∼213 m by SDVFZ, which yields a tentative slip rate of 1 to 8 mm/yr for the SDVFZ.

  18. The epidemic of Justinian (AD 542): a prelude to the Middle Ages ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The epidemic that struck Constantinople and the surrounding countries during the reign of Justinian in the middle of the 6th century, was the first documented pandemic in history. ... It is estimated that about one third of the population died — a figure comparable to the death rate during the Black Death in the Middle Ages.

  19. Widening gap in age at muscular dystrophy-associated death between blacks and whites, 1986-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneson, Aileen; Vatave, Ajay; Finkel, Richard

    2010-09-14

    Muscular dystrophies (MDs), characterized by progressive muscle wasting, are associated with 1 in 2,500 deaths in the United States. Although treatments slow the progression, these disorders lead to early death, usually due to cardiac or respiratory failure. We analyzed death record data from 18,315 MD-associated deaths that occurred in the United States in 1986 through 2005 to assess trends in the age at death of people with MDs. From 1986 through 2005, the MD-associated mortality rate did not change among blacks, whites, males, or females. The median age at death among white females with MDs was 12 years higher than among black females. The frequency of reported cardiomyopathy increased among white but not black male decedents with MDs, although cardiomyopathy remained more commonly reported among black males. Among white males, the median age at death increased by 0.2 annually for those with and 1.3 for those without indications of cardiomyopathy. Among black males, the median age at death increased 0.3 years annually among those without reported cardiomyopathy. Among white males, the frequencies of pulmonary failure and pulmonary infection decreased significantly over time. Changes in age at death and reported clinical comorbidities reflect improvements in the treatment of MDs. White males with MDs have shown a greater increase in age at death over time than black males. Contributing factors to this difference might include differences in types of MDs, rates of genetic and environmental modifiers, natural history, socioeconomic factors, and access to and use of treatment options.

  20. Epidemic Trade

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boerner, Lars; Severgnini, Battista

    This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the intensity of medieval trade flows between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modied version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day......, and geographical position are of substantial signicance. These results are the first to enable us to identify and quantify key variables of medieval trade flows based on an empirical trade model. These results shed new light on many qualitative debates on the importance and causes of medieval trade....

  1. Banting Memorial Lecture 2010^. Type 2 diabetes as an 'infectious' disease: is this the Black Death of the 21st century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D R; Matthews, P C

    2011-01-01

    We are currently facing a global pandemic of obesity and Type 2 diabetes. In some settings, the population prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is 50%, and half of those affected will die from diabetes-related complications. Eight centuries ago, an epidemic of bubonic plague swept across Europe, killing at least half of its victims. We here draw comparisons between these two pandemics, proposing close analogies between the 'Black Death' of the 14th century and the modern-day equivalent of Type 2 diabetes. Both diseases can be considered in terms of an aetiological agent, a reservoir, a vector and a predisposing toxic environment; populations can be considered as highly susceptible to the transmissable agents of Type 2 diabetes in the setting of calorie excess, inadequate food labelling, poorly regulated advertising and sedentary lifestyles. As for tackling a pandemic of a contagious microbial pathogen, we believe that breaking the cycle of transmission in the diabetes epidemic must be underpinned by political will and prompt, decisive legislation backed by the medical community. Far from fearing that such measures edge us towards a 'nanny state', we believe individuals should expect a responsible government to safeguard them from the toxic milieu that puts them at risk of obesity and its complications, and that communities and populations have the right to have their health protected. © 2010 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2010 Diabetes UK.

  2. Predicting the spread of sudden oak death in California (2010-2030): epidemic outcomes under no control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross K. Meentemeyer; Nik Cunniffe; Alex Cook; David M. Rizzo; Chris A. Gilligan

    2010-01-01

    Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

  3. Molecular identification by "suicide PCR" of Yersinia pestis as the agent of medieval black death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoult, D; Aboudharam, G; Crubézy, E; Larrouy, G; Ludes, B; Drancourt, M

    2000-11-07

    Medieval Black Death is believed to have killed up to one-third of the Western European population during the 14th century. It was identified as plague at this time, but recently the causative organism was debated because no definitive evidence has been obtained to confirm the role of Yersinia pestis as the agent of plague. We obtained the teeth of a child and two adults from a 14th century grave in France, disrupted them to obtain the pulp, and applied the new "suicide PCR" protocol in which the primers are used only once. There were no positive controls: Neither Yersinia nor Yersinia DNA were introduced in the laboratory. A negative result is followed by a new test using other primers; a positive result is followed by sequencing. The second and third primer pair used, coding for a part of the pla gene, generated amplicons whose sequence confirmed that it was Y. pestis in 1 tooth from the child and 19/19 teeth from the adults. Negative controls were negative. Attempts to detect the putative alternative etiologic agents Bacillus anthracis and Rickettsia prowazekii failed. Suicide PCR avoids any risk of contamination as it uses a single-shot primer-its specificity is absolute. We believe that we can end the controversy: Medieval Black Death was plague.

  4. [The Black Death as a cause of the massacres of Jews: a myth of medical history?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritzmann, I

    1998-01-01

    In the middle of the 14th century, most towns in German-speaking territories and beyond massacred their Jewish communities. Thousands of Jews were burnt, often connected with accusations of well-poisoning. Medical and socio-historical literature usually attributes these massacres to the anxiety created by the Black Death, which was sweeping over Europe during this period. This article argues that there is no direct link between the massacres and the plague. How other researchers showed before, far from acts of plague-terrified, frenzied mobs, the massacres were the carefully planned and executed work of the Christian local governments. In addition, the slaughtering of Jews began long before the Black Death broke out in Europe. No relation can be found between the intensity of the disease and the violence of the murderers, even though there were wide regional differences. Causes of the persecutions other than the effects of plague seem evident, mainly religious fears fueled by the Church, financial profit, and political interests. This article wants to draw the attention to a myth in the history of medicine, the myth of the plague as the main cause of the massacres in the 14th century. It also raises the question, whether the plague as a trigger for the massacres really was a basic requirement.

  5. Exploring the Experience of Life Stress Among Black Women with a History of Fetal or Infant Death: a Phenomenological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kyrah K; Lewis, Rhonda K; Baumgartner, Elizabeth; Schunn, Christy; Maryman, J'Vonnah; LoCurto, Jamie

    2017-06-01

    Disparate birth outcomes among Black women continue to be a major public health problem. Whereas prior research has investigated the influence of stress on Black women's birth outcomes, few studies have explored how stress is experienced among Black women across the life course. The objectives of this study were to describe the experience of stress across the life course among Black women who reported a history of fetal or infant death and to identify stressful life events (SLE) that may not be represented in the widely used SLE inventory. Using phenomenological, qualitative research design, in-depth interviews were conducted with six Black women in Kansas who experienced a fetal or infant death. Analyses revealed that participants experienced multiple, co-occurring stressors over the course of their lives and experienced a proliferation of stress emerging in early life and persisting into adulthood. Among the types of stressors cited by participants, history of sexual assault (trauma-related stressor) was a key stressful life event that is not currently reflected in the SLE inventory. Our findings highlight the importance of using a life-course perspective to gain a contextual understanding of the experiences of stress among Black women, particularly those with a history of adverse birth outcomes. Further research investigating Black women's experiences of stress and the mechanisms by which stress impacts their health could inform efforts to reduce disparities in birth outcomes. An additional focus on the experience and impact of trauma-related stress on Black women's birth outcomes may also be warranted.

  6. "To look at death another way": Black teenage males' perspectives on second-lines and regular funerals in New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordere, Tashel C

    The purpose of this study was to describe how Black adolescent males understand "second-line" (musical processions) and "regular"/traditional funeral rituals in New Orleans following the violent deaths of significant persons in their lives. In-depth interviews were conducted with 10 Black males between the ages of 12 and 15 using descriptive phenomenology methodology. Findings revealed that these participants understood death as a cause for celebration, remembrance, and unity related to their experiences with the second-line ritual. Three elements of the life world of Black teenage males were descriptive of second lines, including: a) observed locations of second lines; b) dancing to good music; and c) observed messages conveyed through t-shirts. Participants provided gender-based descriptions of perceived spoken and unspoken rights in grieving at the two distinct rituals. Related to their second-line experience, the teens reflect on ways in which they wish to have their deaths ritualized.

  7. The sex-selective impact of the Black Death and recurring plagues in the Southern Netherlands, 1349-1450.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Daniel R; Roosen, Joris

    2017-10-01

    Although recent work has begun to establish that early modern plagues had selective mortality effects, it was generally accepted that the initial outbreak of Black Death in 1347-52 was a "universal killer." Recent bioarchaeological work, however, has argued that the Black Death was also selective with regard to age and pre-plague health status. The issue of the Black Death's potential sex selectivity is less clear. Bioarchaeological research hypothesizes that sex-selection in mortality was possible during the initial Black Death outbreak, and we present evidence from historical sources to test this notion. To determine whether the Black Death and recurring plagues in the period 1349-1450 had a sex-selective mortality effect. We present a newly compiled database of mortality information taken from mortmain records in Hainaut, Belgium, in the period 1349-1450, which not only is an important new source of information on medieval mortality, but also allows for sex-disaggregation. We find that the Black Death period of 1349-51, as well as recurring plagues in the 100 years up to 1450, often had a sex-selective effect-killing more women than in "non-plague years." Although much research tends to suggest that men are more susceptible to a variety of diseases caused by bacteria, viruses and parasites, we cannot assume that the same direction of sex-selection in mortality applied to diseases in the distant past such as Second Pandemic plagues. While the exact reasons for the sex-selective effect of late-medieval plague are unclear in the absence of further data, we suggest that simple inequities between the sexes in exposure to the disease may not have been a key driver. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Early Tertiary magmatism and probable Mesozoic fabrics in the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Martin G.; Friedman, Richard M.

    1999-01-01

    We report two early Tertiary U-Pb zircon ages for pegmatite from the Black Mountains of Death Valley, California. These ages, 54.7 ± 0.6 Ma and 56 ± 3 Ma, are unique for much of southeastern California. The samples belong to a pegmatite suite that occupies part of the footwall of the Badwater turtleback, a late Tertiary extensional feature; similar but undated pegmatite intrudes the footwalls of the Copper Canyon and Mormon Point turtlebacks farther south. The pegmatite suite demonstrates that fabric development on the turtlebacks was at least a two-stage process. Fabrics cut by these pegmatites likely formed during the Mesozoic, whereas those that involve them formed during late Tertiary extension.

  9. Strategy for Sensitive and Specific Detection of Yersinia pestis in Skeletons of the Black Death Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, Lisa; Harbeck, Michaela; Thomas, Astrid; Hoke, Nadja; Zöller, Lothar; Wiechmann, Ingrid; Grupe, Gisela; Scholz, Holger C.; Riehm, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    Yersinia pestis has been identified as the causative agent of the Black Death pandemic in the 14th century. However, retrospective diagnostics in human skeletons after more than 600 years are critical. We describe a strategy following a modern diagnostic algorithm and working under strict ancient DNA regime for the identification of medieval human plague victims. An initial screening and DNA quantification assay detected the Y. pestis specific pla gene of the high copy number plasmid pPCP1. Results were confirmed by conventional PCR and sequence analysis targeting both Y. pestis specific virulence plasmids pPCP1 and pMT1. All assays were meticulously validated according to human clinical diagnostics requirements (ISO 15189) regarding efficiency, sensitivity, specificity, and limit of detection (LOD). Assay specificity was 100% tested on 41 clinically relevant bacteria and 29 Y. pseudotuberculosis strains as well as for DNA of 22 Y. pestis strains and 30 previously confirmed clinical human plague samples. The optimized LOD was down to 4 gene copies. 29 individuals from three different multiple inhumations were initially assessed as possible victims of the Black Death pandemic. 7 samples (24%) were positive in the pPCP1 specific screening assay. Confirmation through second target pMT1 specific PCR was successful for 4 of the positive individuals (14%). A maximum of 700 and 560 copies per µl aDNA were quantified in two of the samples. Those were positive in all assays including all repetitions, and are candidates for future continuative investigations such as whole genome sequencing. We discuss that all precautions taken here for the work with aDNA are sufficient to prevent external sample contamination and fulfill the criteria of authenticity. With regard to retrospective diagnostics of a human pathogen and the uniqueness of ancient material we strongly recommend using a careful strategy and validated assays as presented in our study. PMID:24069445

  10. Strategy for sensitive and specific detection of Yersinia pestis in skeletons of the black death pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, Lisa; Harbeck, Michaela; Thomas, Astrid; Hoke, Nadja; Zöller, Lothar; Wiechmann, Ingrid; Grupe, Gisela; Scholz, Holger C; Riehm, Julia M

    2013-01-01

    Yersinia pestis has been identified as the causative agent of the Black Death pandemic in the 14(th) century. However, retrospective diagnostics in human skeletons after more than 600 years are critical. We describe a strategy following a modern diagnostic algorithm and working under strict ancient DNA regime for the identification of medieval human plague victims. An initial screening and DNA quantification assay detected the Y. pestis specific pla gene of the high copy number plasmid pPCP1. Results were confirmed by conventional PCR and sequence analysis targeting both Y. pestis specific virulence plasmids pPCP1 and pMT1. All assays were meticulously validated according to human clinical diagnostics requirements (ISO 15189) regarding efficiency, sensitivity, specificity, and limit of detection (LOD). Assay specificity was 100% tested on 41 clinically relevant bacteria and 29 Y. pseudotuberculosis strains as well as for DNA of 22 Y. pestis strains and 30 previously confirmed clinical human plague samples. The optimized LOD was down to 4 gene copies. 29 individuals from three different multiple inhumations were initially assessed as possible victims of the Black Death pandemic. 7 samples (24%) were positive in the pPCP1 specific screening assay. Confirmation through second target pMT1 specific PCR was successful for 4 of the positive individuals (14%). A maximum of 700 and 560 copies per µl aDNA were quantified in two of the samples. Those were positive in all assays including all repetitions, and are candidates for future continuative investigations such as whole genome sequencing. We discuss that all precautions taken here for the work with aDNA are sufficient to prevent external sample contamination and fulfill the criteria of authenticity. With regard to retrospective diagnostics of a human pathogen and the uniqueness of ancient material we strongly recommend using a careful strategy and validated assays as presented in our study.

  11. Strategy for sensitive and specific detection of Yersinia pestis in skeletons of the black death pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Seifert

    Full Text Available Yersinia pestis has been identified as the causative agent of the Black Death pandemic in the 14(th century. However, retrospective diagnostics in human skeletons after more than 600 years are critical. We describe a strategy following a modern diagnostic algorithm and working under strict ancient DNA regime for the identification of medieval human plague victims. An initial screening and DNA quantification assay detected the Y. pestis specific pla gene of the high copy number plasmid pPCP1. Results were confirmed by conventional PCR and sequence analysis targeting both Y. pestis specific virulence plasmids pPCP1 and pMT1. All assays were meticulously validated according to human clinical diagnostics requirements (ISO 15189 regarding efficiency, sensitivity, specificity, and limit of detection (LOD. Assay specificity was 100% tested on 41 clinically relevant bacteria and 29 Y. pseudotuberculosis strains as well as for DNA of 22 Y. pestis strains and 30 previously confirmed clinical human plague samples. The optimized LOD was down to 4 gene copies. 29 individuals from three different multiple inhumations were initially assessed as possible victims of the Black Death pandemic. 7 samples (24% were positive in the pPCP1 specific screening assay. Confirmation through second target pMT1 specific PCR was successful for 4 of the positive individuals (14%. A maximum of 700 and 560 copies per µl aDNA were quantified in two of the samples. Those were positive in all assays including all repetitions, and are candidates for future continuative investigations such as whole genome sequencing. We discuss that all precautions taken here for the work with aDNA are sufficient to prevent external sample contamination and fulfill the criteria of authenticity. With regard to retrospective diagnostics of a human pathogen and the uniqueness of ancient material we strongly recommend using a careful strategy and validated assays as presented in our study.

  12. Suicides, homicides, accidents, and other external causes of death among blacks and whites in the Southern Community Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Sonderman

    Full Text Available Prior studies of risk factors associated with external causes of death have been limited in the number of covariates investigated and external causes examined. Herein, associations between numerous demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors and the major causes of external mortality, such as suicide, homicide, and accident, were assessed prospectively among 73,422 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated in multivariate regression analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Men compared with women (HR = 2.32; 95% CI: 1.87-2.89, current smokers (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40-2.17, and unemployed/never employed participants at the time of enrollment (HR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.02 had increased risk of dying from all external causes, with similarly elevated HRs for suicide, homicide, and accidental death among both blacks and whites. Blacks compared with whites had lower risk of accidental death (HR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.38-0.57 and suicide (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.31-0.99. Blacks and whites in the SCCS had comparable risks of homicide death (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.76; however, whites in the SCCS had unusually high homicide rates compared with all whites who were resident in the 12 SCCS states, while black SCCS participants had homicide rates similar to those of all blacks residing in the SCCS states. Depression was the strongest risk factor for suicide, while being married was protective against death from homicide in both races. Being overweight/obese at enrollment was associated with reduced risks in all external causes of death, and the number of comorbid conditions was a risk factor for iatrogenic deaths. Most risk factors identified in earlier studies of external causes of death were confirmed in the SCCS cohort, in spite of the low SES of SCCS participants. Results from other epidemiologic cohorts are needed to confirm the novel findings

  13. Intraspecific variation in host susceptibility and climatic factors mediate epidemics of sudden oak death in western US forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Huberli; K.J. Hayden; M. Calver; M. Garbelotto

    2011-01-01

    Umbellularia californica is one of the key infectious hosts of the exotic Phytophthora ramorum, which causes sudden oak death (SOD) in California and Oregon forests. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the epidemiologically relevant parameters for SOD in California and southern Oregon, including potential differences between the two...

  14. Common roots: a contextual review of HIV epidemics in black men who have sex with men across the African diaspora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millett, Gregorio A; Jeffries, William L; Peterson, John L; Malebranche, David J; Lane, Tim; Flores, Stephen A; Fenton, Kevin A; Wilson, Patrick A; Steiner, Riley; Heilig, Charles M

    2012-07-28

    Pooled estimates from across the African diaspora show that black men who have sex with men (MSM) are 15 times more likely to be HIV positive compared with general populations and 8·5 times more likely compared with black populations. Disparities in the prevalence of HIV infection are greater in African and Caribbean countries that criminalise homosexual activity than in those that do not criminalise such behaviour. With the exception of US and African epidemiological studies, most studies of black MSM mainly focus on outcomes associated with HIV behavioural risk rather than on prevalence, incidence, or undiagnosed infection. Nevertheless, black MSM across the African diaspora share common experiences such as discrimination, cultural norms valuing masculinity, concerns about confidentiality during HIV testing or treatment, low access to HIV drugs, threats of violence or incarceration, and few targeted HIV prevention resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Black-White differences in the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases: 25 year follow up of a nationally representative community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin; Burgard, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    More studies are needed to examine whether race moderates the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on cause-specific mortality including deaths due to renal diseases in the United States. The present longitudinal study compared Blacks and Whites for the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases over a 25-year period in a nationally representative community sample. Data came from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) study, a nationally representative cohort that followed 3361 Black (n = 1156) or White (n = 2205) adults 25 and older for up to 25 years from 1986 to 2011. Month, year and cause of death were extracted from death certificates or national death index reports and coded based on ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes, depending on the year of death. We used Cox proportional hazards models for data analysis. Time to death due to renal diseases over a 25-year period was the outcome, baseline depressive symptoms (11-item Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression [CES-D]) was the predictor, demographic characteristics, socio-economic status and chronic medical conditions (CMC) (hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease, heart disease, stroke, cancer, and arthritis) at baseline were controls, and race was the focal moderator. In the pooled sample, race and baseline depressive symptoms showed a significant interaction, suggesting a stronger effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases for Whites compared to Blacks. In race-specific models, high depressive symptoms at baseline increased risk of death due to renal diseases among Whites but not Blacks. The Black-White difference in the predictive role of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases over a 25-year period found here provides support for the Black-White health paradox.

  16. Black-White differences in the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases: 25 year follow up of a nationally representative community sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin; Burgard, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: More studies are needed to examine whether race moderates the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on cause-specific mortality including deaths due to renal diseases in the United States. Objectives: The present longitudinal study compared Blacks and Whites for the effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases over a 25-year period in a nationally representative community sample. Patients and Methods: Data came from the Americans’ Changing Lives (ACL) study, a nationally representative cohort that followed 3361 Black (n = 1156) or White (n = 2205) adults 25 and older for up to 25 years from 1986 to 2011. Month, year and cause of death were extracted from death certificates or national death index reports and coded based on ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes, depending on the year of death. We used Cox proportional hazards models for data analysis. Time to death due to renal diseases over a 25-year period was the outcome, baseline depressive symptoms (11-item Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression [CES-D]) was the predictor, demographic characteristics, socio-economic status and chronic medical conditions (CMC) (hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung disease, heart disease, stroke, cancer, and arthritis) at baseline were controls, and race was the focal moderator. Results: In the pooled sample, race and baseline depressive symptoms showed a significant interaction, suggesting a stronger effect of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases for Whites compared to Blacks. In race-specific models, high depressive symptoms at baseline increased risk of death due to renal diseases among Whites but not Blacks. Conclusion: The Black-White difference in the predictive role of baseline depressive symptoms on deaths due to renal diseases over a 25-year period found here provides support for the Black-White health paradox. PMID:26693500

  17. Exhumation of the Black Mountains in Death Valley, California, with new thermochronometric data from the Badwater Turtleback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizemore, T. M.; Cemen, I.; Wielicki, M. M.; Stockli, D. F.; Heizler, M. T.; Lutz, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Black Mountains, in Death Valley, California, are one of the key areas to better understand Basin and Range extension because they contain Cenozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks overlying mid- to deep-crustal, 1.74 Ga basement gneiss with abundant fault striations, large-scale extensional folds, and tectonite fabrics containing top-to-the-northwest shear-sense indicators. These rocks make up the footwall of three prominent, high-relief "turtleback" fault surfaces in the western flank of the Black Mountains, which are thought to have accommodated a significant amount of strain in the Death Valley area. It is unknown whether the missing Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata in the Black Mountains were removed in association with high-angle faulting, or along a continuous detachment surface with a rolling-hinge style of faulting as the hanging wall moved to the west, now forming the Panamint Range. The turtlebacks play an important role in resolving this question because they are commonly cited as containing conflicting evidence of both hypotheses. To provide insight into this problem, we are building an exhumation model across the Black Mountains using previously published thermochronometric data as well as new transect-based (U-Th)/He and Ar-Ar thermochronology and U-Pb geochronology for the Badwater turtleback. The model will provide a four-dimensional view of the exhumation history of the Black Mountains, to serve as evidence for either of the two previously mentioned hypotheses, or possibly some other style of exhumation. Additionally, we will compare the exhumation history of the Black Mountains to that of the Panamint Range using previously published data and interpretations. Our preliminary zircon U-Pb data suggest a crystallization age for the gneissic rocks on the Badwater turtleback of 1.74 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=31.8 Ma, n=6) with two younger populations at 1.46 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=51.8 Ma, n=3) and 79.6 Ma (206Pb/238U, 2σ error=10.0 Ma, n=2

  18. [Plague and creative art. On the influential effect on art of the 14th century by black death].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, R

    1990-01-01

    The present paper tries to shed light on the influence of the plague upon art. It considers above all the period after the "Black Death", i.e. the second half of the 14th century. Some changes of art are quantitative: its production is lessened by the effects of the plague--e.g. by the death of an artist--or increased by religious donations. The influence on style is similarly contradictory. Retardation as well as acceleration of the stylistic development can be observed. A third point consists in the changes in iconography of "Post-Plague-Art", showing a different interpretation of existing themes or introducing new ones. The varied conditions of production and reception of the different artistic genres makes the examination of the interaction between plague and art extremely complex.

  19. Stellar Death by Black Hole: How Tidal Disruption Events Unveil the High Energy Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlin, Eric Robert

    2017-08-01

    When a star comes very close to a supermassive black hole, the tidal field of the hole can be strong enough to deform and stretch the star into a stream of debris. Half of this stellar debris stream returns to the black hole and forms an accretion disk, briefly lighting up the black hole and, in the most extreme cases, launching relativistic jets. These ``tidal disruption events,'' from the initial stellar destruction to the eventual jet production, are the focus of my thesis, and during this talk I will describe some of the theoretical advances we have made in understanding them. I will also discuss more recent work that shows how this relatively simple picture can be more complicated when the disrupting black hole is part of a binary system. Despite the added complexity, I will argue that there is a timescale over which one expects to see variation in the luminosity of a tidal disruption event from a binary supermassive black hole system. Using these predictions and a set of simulations, I will motivate such an interpretation for the superluminous supernova ASASSN-15lh.

  20. Post-Death Cloning of Endangered Jeju Black Cattle (Korean Native Cattle): Fertility and Serum Chemistry in a Cloned Bull and Cow and Their Offspring

    OpenAIRE

    KIM, Eun Young; SONG, Dong Hwan; PARK, Min Jee; PARK, Hyo Young; LEE, Seung Eun; CHOI, Hyun Yong; MOON, Jeremiah Jiman; KIM, Young Hoon; MUN, Seong Ho; OH, Chang Eon; KO, Moon Suck; LEE, Dong Sun; RIU, Key Zung; PARK, Se Pill

    2013-01-01

    Abstract To preserve Jeju black cattle (JBC; endangered native Korean cattle), a pair of cattle, namely a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, were produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) in a previous study. In the present study, we examined the in vitro fertilization and reproductive potentials of these post-death cloned animals. Sperm motility, in vitro fertilization and developmental capacity were examined in a post-death cloned bull (Heuk Oll Dolee) and an extinct nuclear donor b...

  1. Death by a thousand cuts: The health implications of black respectability politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hedwig; Hicken, Margaret Takako

    2016-01-01

    The authors introduce the concept of "vigilance," capturing behaviors that reflect attempts to navigate racialized social spaces on a daily basis. Specifically, vigilant behaviors include care about appearance and language to be treated with respect, avoidance of social spaces, and psychological preparation for potential prejudice and discrimination. Furthermore, these behaviors align with those discussed in Black respectability politics debates. Using data from a population-representative sample of Black adults in Chicago, they report that vigilance is associated with poor physical and mental health indexed through chronic health conditions, depressive symptoms, and self-rated health.

  2. Molecular identification by “suicide PCR” of Yersinia pestis as the agent of Medieval Black Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raoult, Didier; Aboudharam, Gérard; Crubézy, Eric; Larrouy, Georges; Ludes, Bertrand; Drancourt, Michel

    2000-01-01

    Medieval Black Death is believed to have killed up to one-third of the Western European population during the 14th century. It was identified as plague at this time, but recently the causative organism was debated because no definitive evidence has been obtained to confirm the role of Yersinia pestis as the agent of plague. We obtained the teeth of a child and two adults from a 14th century grave in France, disrupted them to obtain the pulp, and applied the new “suicide PCR” protocol in which the primers are used only once. There were no positive controls: Neither Yersinia nor Yersinia DNA were introduced in the laboratory. A negative result is followed by a new test using other primers; a positive result is followed by sequencing. The second and third primer pair used, coding for a part of the pla gene, generated amplicons whose sequence confirmed that it was Y. pestis in 1 tooth from the child and 19/19 teeth from the adults. Negative controls were negative. Attempts to detect the putative alternative etiologic agents Bacillus anthracis and Rickettsia prowazekii failed. Suicide PCR avoids any risk of contamination as it uses a single-shot primer—its specificity is absolute. We believe that we can end the controversy: Medieval Black Death was plague. PMID:11058154

  3. Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

    2015-11-01

    Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life

  4. Locked in but Locked Out: Death Sentence for the Higher Education of Black Prison Inmates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Robert Bruce

    1995-01-01

    Argues that, although there are presently over 20,000 prison inmates, the largest of whom are black, enrolled in higher education programs, by 1996, there may be none. The author provides justification for prisoner rehabilitation, revealing the inadequacy of harsh punishment in stemming crime, and presents reasons why higher education in prisons…

  5. Plague Epidemic s in Syria b etween XIII - XV. Centuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esra ATMACA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Epidemic diseases that cause mass death has been one of the greatest fears of the society in the past century Usually due to poor living conditions, poverty, the inadequate treatment. Plague is one of them. Plague word is sometimes used synonymously with t he word tâûn, sometimes considered to be a greater sense of the Word plague. These outbreaks occured repeatedly in human society and many times occured between XIII - XV. centuries. Our research aims to examine the plague occured in Syria in the Mamluk state domination discussed period. One of the outbreaks have occured in the period between the years 1347 - 1351. Epidemic was looming at the same time with the European named the black death or large extinction. Many people have been killed in Syria as in other places where the epidemic has spread. Rumors about them are given in the source is situated in the form of the issuance of the number of people who died in one day and sometimes the total number of deaths took place at a given date range. In this study, we aimed to determine which is more severe than the others in the outbreak, to assess the rumor about the number of deaths from this cause, to reveal the difficulties of the funeral of the dead, to uncover practices that people do to get rid of this disease.

  6. Wildlife forensic entomology: determining time of death in two illegally killed black bear cubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G S

    1999-07-01

    Forensic entomology is now commonly used to determine time of death in human death investigations. However, it can be equally applicable to wildlife crimes. This paper describes the use of entomology to determine time of death in the illegal killing of two young bear cubs in Manitoba, Canada. Two cubs were found shot, disemboweled, with their gall bladders removed. Natural Resource officers (Conservation Officers) and a Royal Canadian Mounted Police (R.C.M.P.) officer examined the remains, and the R.C.M.P. officer collected insect evidence. The only insects on the remains were adult blow flies coming to lay eggs and the blow fly eggs themselves (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The time of hatch was recorded and the insects were reared to adulthood. Time of hatch, together with species identification, macro and micro climate and lab developmental data were used to determine the time of death. The time was consistent with the time that the defendants were seen at the scene and was used in their conviction. This case illustrates that insect evidence can be equally as valuable in poaching cases as in homicide cases. However, in most cases Conservation Officers are unaware of this science. It is therefore, extremely important for more Conservation Officers to be educated about this field.

  7. Medical Care or Disciplinary Discourses? Preventive Measures against the Black Death in Late Medieval Paris: A Brief Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yong Jin; Park, Sam Hun

    2017-03-01

    This paper examined the political and social implications of the Compendium de epidemia prescription written by the Masters of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Paris in the mid-14th century during the Black Death. This study aimed to examine how the effects of power as a discourse owned by medical knowledge are revealed. This paper outlines the composition of the contents based on the 1888 edition edited and translated by Émile H. Rébouis and notes the features of the prescription examined by the existing study of medical history rather than the causes of diseases. Compendium de epidemia seems to have been written primarily for the royal family and nobles who ordered them when looking at prescription-related technologies. At the same time, under the influence of Islamic-Arabic academia, it clearly distinguishes the world of faith and the world of academia (intelligence), explaining the pathogenesis and infection pathways based on causality. The onset substrate is due to heat and humidity, and the prescription is to prevent the two from overdoing in the body. In particular, issues related to heat are criticized in connection with the value of life of knight-noblesse . This is in response to political criticism of the ineffectual French royal family and nobility at the beginning of the Hundred Years' War and shows why this tract sets the utilitas publica at the forefront as an important purpose. The conclusion has shown how medical knowledge produced on the Black Death pandemic how they function as discourses that have a sort of power effect on the value of life of knight-noblesse. It is necessary to conduct if these phenomena can be found in other contemporary medical writings.

  8. CLINICAL AND SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROFILE OF BLACK WOMEN PRONE MATERNAL DEATH: ASSISTANCE TO WOMEN IN A UNIT OF PUBLIC DF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Aparecida Trevisan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sample survey conducted in the Public Health Unit of the Federal District, with only blackwomen pregnant. Aims to verify the compliance of specific group and degree of receptivityand awareness on health pregnancy. The study area lies in women's health and training ofhealth professionals in nursing.The analyzed result goes against the interests of publicmanagement in health through compliance with international agreements established in theMillennium Development Goals to reduce maternal and infant death and the eradication ofracism-4th 5th and 9th MDG / UN. He attempts to verify the paucity of nursing actions inthe face of known pre-existing impairment of hypertension, abortions, sickle cell anemia, pre-eclampsia in women of black ethnic group, living in communities of less infrastructure andless education. Registers the range, in the Federal District, the public health policies aimed atfulfilling agreements for equality and reducing child mortality and achieving the targets for2015 of reducing the maternal and infant mortality, according tothe United Nations, which isthe 5th goal millennium.Keywords: Women's Health, the black population, the UnitedNations

  9. Shallow crustal fault rocks from the Black Mountain detachments, Death Valley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayman, Nicholas W.

    2006-10-01

    The Black Mountain detachments denuded crystalline footwalls and extended sedimentary hanging walls from late Pliocene to Recent time. Fault rocks include gouges that crosscut breccias, and are in turn cut by compositionally and texturally distinct shear bands. Breccias have cataclastic textures, noteworthy for abundant transgranular fracture and power-law particle size distributions ( D) of 2.77-2.79. Gouges have granular textures, noteworthy for grains with abraded boundaries surrounded by a clay-rich matrix and D = 2.86-3.31. Matrix minerals include phyllosilicates, clay minerals, and oxide aggregates that serve as crude strain indicators. Geochemical data indicate that there was abundant water within the fault zone, but that the water was not plumbed from deeper crustal sources. There are systematic geochemical variations between fault-rock samples, but the inferred mass changes were minor, history of the fault rocks involved multiple deformation mechanisms and authigenic mineral assemblages that hypothetically influenced the frictional properties of the detachment shear zones.

  10. Slip Rates, Recurrence Intervals and Earthquake Event Magnitudes for the southern Black Mountains Fault Zone, southern Death Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronterhouse Sohn, M.; Knott, J. R.; Bowman, D. D.

    2005-12-01

    The normal-oblique Black Mountain Fault zone (BMFZ) is part of the Death Valley fault system. Strong ground-motion generated by earthquakes on the BMFZ poses a serious threat to the Las Vegas, NV area (pop. ~1,428,690), the Death Valley National Park (max. pop. ~20,000) and Pahrump, NV (pop. 30,000). Fault scarps offset Holocene alluvial-fan deposits along most of the 80-km length of the BMFZ. However, slip rates, recurrence intervals, and event magnitudes for the BMFZ are poorly constrained due to a lack of age control. Also, Holocene scarp heights along the BMFZ range from 6 m suggesting that geomorphic sections have different earthquake histories. Along the southernmost section, the BMFZ steps basinward preserving three post-late Pleistocene fault scarps. Surveys completed with a total station theodolite show scarp heights of 5.5, 5.0 and 2 meters offsetting the late Pleistocene, early to middle Holocene, to middle-late Holocene surfaces, respectively. Regression plots of vertical offset versus maximum scarp angle suggest event ages of <10 - 2 ka with a post-late Pleistocene slip rate of 0.1mm/yr to 0.3 mm/yr and recurrence of <3300 years/event. Regression equations for the estimated geomorphically constrained rupture length of the southernmost section and surveyed event displacements provides estimated moment magnitudes (Mw) between 6.6 and 7.3 for the BMFZ.

  11. Interpretation and tectonic implications of cooling histories: An example from the Black Mountains, Death Valley extended terrane, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Daniel K.; Dokka, Roy K.

    1993-04-01

    In the Death Valley extended terrane of California, the Black Mountains have long been considered unique because they largely lack the miogeoclinal cover rocks characteristic of the surrounding ranges. Fission-track ages presented here are combined with published 40Ar/ 39Ar ages and used to construct cooling path envelopes for samples of Precambrian crystalline basement and Miocene plutonic rocks collected across the entire range. The cooling history reconstructions are used to differentiate between contrasting Miocene unroofing histories proposed for this range. Apatite and zircon fission-track ages from the southeastern portion of the range suggest unroofing occurred there at ˜ 13-8.5 Ma from temperatures well below 300°C. Cooling age data from the central Black Mountains indicate major unroofing at 8.5-6.0 Ma from temperatures greater than 300°C. Old cooling ages from directly beneath the highly extended Amargosa chaos rocks are consistent with the chaos rocks being part of an allochthonous slice that was tectonically transported from high crustal levels onto deeper crustal levels. Scenarios for the Miocene unroofing history of this range rely heavily on interpretations of the depth of emplacement of Miocene plutons in the core of the range. Thermochronologic and geobarometric data and thermal modeling of intrusion cooling suggest emplacement of an 11.6 Ma pluton into the crystalline core at a depth of 10-15 km. Both the cooling-age data and considerations of the local geology seem to preclude an unroofing history dominated by erosion of the overlying miogeoclinal section. The morphology of the cooling path envelopes constructed here are similar to those constructed for detachment fault terranes. The data are most consistent with unroofing involving tectonic denudation (10-15 km) along a single, westerly dipping detachment zone. Diachronous rapid cooling from southeast to northwest within the range is interpreted as a result of the lower plate undergoing

  12. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  13. Unequal burdens of loss: examining the frequency and timing of homicide deaths experienced by young Black men across the life course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jocelyn R

    2015-07-01

    I examined the frequency and developmental timing of traumatic loss resulting from the health disparity of homicide among young Black men in Baltimore, Maryland. Using a modified grounded theory approach, I conducted in-depth semistructured interviews with 40 Black men (aged 18-24 years) from January 2012 to June 2013. I also constructed adapted life history calendar tools using chronologies of loss, and (1) provided a comprehensive history of loss, (2) determined a specific frequency of homicide deaths, (3) indicated participants' relationship to the decedents, and (4) identified the developmental timing of deaths. On average, participants knew 3 homicide victims who were overwhelmingly peers. Participant experiences of homicide death started in early childhood, peaked in adolescence, and persisted into emerging adulthood. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a significant developmental turning point and disrupted participants' social networks. The traumatic loss of peer homicide was a prevalent life course experience for young Black men and identified the need for trauma- and grief-informed interventions. Future research is needed to examine the physical and psychosocial consequences, coping resources and strategies, and developmental implications of traumatic loss for young Black men in urban contexts.

  14. Mobility, mortality, and the middle ages: identification of migrant individuals in a 14th century black death cemetery population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, E J; Montgomery, J; Evans, J A; Stantis, C; Mueller, V

    2013-02-01

    Mobility and migration patterns of groups and individuals have long been a topic of interest to archaeologists, used for broad explanatory models of cultural change as well as illustrations of historical particularism. The 14th century AD was a tumultuous period of history in Britain, with severely erratic weather patterns, the Great Famine of 1315-1322, the Scottish Wars of Independence, and the Hundred Years' War providing additional migration pressures to the ordinary economic issues drawing individuals to their capital under more stable conditions. East Smithfield Black Death Cemetery (Royal Mint) had a documented use period of only 2 years (AD 1348-1350), providing a precise historical context (∼50 years) for data. Adults (n = 30) from the East Smithfield site were sampled for strontium and oxygen stable isotope analyses of tooth enamel. Five individuals were demonstrated to be statistical outliers through the combined strontium and oxygen isotope data. Potential origins for migrants ranged from London's surrounding hinterlands to distant portions of northern and western Britain. Historic food sourcing practices for London were found to be an important factor for consideration in a broader than expected (87) Sr/(86) Sr range reflected in a comparison of enamel samples from three London datasets. The pooled dataset demonstrated a high level of consistency between site data, divergent from the geologically predicted range. We argue that this supports the premise that isotope data in human populations must be approached as a complex interaction between behavior and environment and thus should be interpreted cautiously with the aid of alternate lines of evidence. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. The Black Death

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350. Although there were ... northern and southern Europe that the pathogen responsible is the Yersinia pestis bacterium that causes bubonic plague. Objectives. The aim of .... conditions of severe overcrowding, malnutrition, and heavy flea infestation), it ...

  16. Another black death?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casamento, R. [Deloitte & Touche (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    This paper examines whether environmental concerns are killing off Europe's demand for coal. The European Commission is introducing more stringent targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The following EU directives are discussed: the National Emissions Ceiling Directive; the Large Combustion Plant Directive; the Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control; the Renewables Directive; and the Draft Directive on greenhouse gas emissions trading. Most of these directives will not take effect for a few years as each EU Member State has to pass it into national law. The present UK greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme excludes electricity generators whereas the EU scheme does not. The author considers that if coal can remain competitively priced, in plentiful supply and with sufficient security, and if clean coal technologies continue to progress, coal could remain a significant part of Europe's generation fuel mix. 1 fig., 2 tabs., 6 photos.

  17. Post-death cloning of endangered Jeju black cattle (Korean native cattle): fertility and serum chemistry in a cloned bull and cow and their offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eun Young; Song, Dong Hwan; Park, Min Jee; Park, Hyo Young; Lee, Seung Eun; Choi, Hyun Yong; Moon, Jeremiah Jiman; Kim, Young Hoon; Mun, Seong Ho; Oh, Chang Eon; Ko, Moon Suck; Lee, Dong Sun; Riu, Key Zung; Park, Se Pill

    2013-12-17

    To preserve Jeju black cattle (JBC; endangered native Korean cattle), a pair of cattle, namely a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, were produced by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) in a previous study. In the present study, we examined the in vitro fertilization and reproductive potentials of these post-death cloned animals. Sperm motility, in vitro fertilization and developmental capacity were examined in a post-death cloned bull (Heuk Oll Dolee) and an extinct nuclear donor bull (BK94-13). We assessed reproductive ability in another post-death cloned cow (Heuk Woo Sunee) using cloned sperm for artificial insemination (AI). There were no differences in sperm motility or developmental potential of in vitro fertilized embryos between the post-death cloned bull and its extinct nuclear donor bull; however, the embryo development ratio was slightly higher in the cloned sperm group than in the nuclear donor sperm group. After one attempt at AI, the post-death cloned JBC cow became pregnant, and gestation proceeded normally until day 287. From this post-death cloned sire and dam, a JBC male calf (Heuk Woo Dolee) was delivered naturally (weight, 25 kg). The genetic paternity/maternity of the cloned JBC bull and cow with regard to their offspring was confirmed using International Society for Animal Genetics standard microsatellite markers. Presently, Heuk Woo Dolee is 5 months of age and growing normally. In addition, there were no significant differences in blood chemistry among the post-death cloned JBC bull, the cow, their offspring and cattle bred by AI. This is the first report showing that a pair of cattle, namely, a post-death cloned JBC bull and cow, had normal fertility. Therefore, SCNT can be used effectively to increase the population of endangered JBC.

  18. The Death of Imhotep: A Hermeneutical Framework for Understanding the Lack of Black Males in STEM Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mocombe, Paul C.

    2018-01-01

    In Afrocentric circles in the United States, ancient Kemetic (Egyptian) scientist Imhotep is considered the Black father of medicine. In this article, I use his name in the title as an allusion to highlight the lack of Black males matriculating in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs or fields in the United States. The…

  19. Critical analysis of deaths due to atypical pneumonia during the onset of the influenza A (H1N1) virus epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grijalva-Otero, Israel; Talavera, Juan Osvaldo; Solorzano-Santos, Fortino; Vazquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Vladislavovna-Doubova, Svetlana; Pérez-Cuevas, Ricardo; Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; García-Peña, Carmen; Espinel-Bermúdez, Claudia; Torres, Javier; de la Peña, Jorge Escobedo

    2009-11-01

    The ongoing influenza A (H1N1) pandemic stroked Mexico and posed a huge challenge to the medical care and public health systems. This report analyzes the clinical course and process of care of patients who died due to atypical pneumonia and fulfilled the clinical criteria of suspected case of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a series of 38 patients who died between April 7 and April 28, 2009 at Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) hospitals due to severe pneumonia and respiratory distress. These cases coincided with the beginning of the outbreak, so patients did not undergo laboratory testing to diagnose influenza. According to IMSS and CDC criteria, post-hoc analysis allowed considering the presumptive diagnosis of S-OIV infection. A multidisciplinary group analyzed the information from the clinical charts, laboratory tests, radiographic studies and death certificates, using descriptive statistics. Most cases were middle-aged (mean 33 years, range: 4-62 years) and previously healthy; 18.4% had an underlying chronic disease, 23.7% were obese and 7.9% were current smokers. None had received the seasonal influenza vaccine; they had cough (92%), fever (86.8%), and malaise (73.7%). The median time from disease onset to hospital admission was 6 days (range 0-8 days). All were admitted to the intensive care unit with pneumonia and/or respiratory distress. Average time from disease onset to death was 8 days (range 4-18 days). An increased number of severe cases of atypical pneumonia in previously healthy adults highlight the importance of the availability of a timely surveillance system able to identify sudden increases in the number of cases or presentation of apparently known diseases.

  20. Life and death in Philadelphia's black belt: a tale of an urban tuberculosis campaign, 1900-1930.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carthon, J Margo Brooks

    2011-01-01

    The poor health status of black Americans was a widely recognized fact during the first third of the twentieth century. Excess mortality in black communities was frequently linked to the infectious disease tuberculosis, which was particularly menacing in densely populated urban settings. As health authorities in large cities struggled to keep pace with the needs of citizens, private charities worked to launch community-oriented attacks against the deadly disease. In 1914 a novel experiment to address excess mortality among blacks was launched in Philadelphia. The success of the health promotion campaign initiated by the Henry Phipps Institute and the Whittier Centre, two private charitable associations, has been attributed primarily to the presence of black clinicians, in particular public health nurse Elizabeth Tyler. This study suggests that community health efforts also rest on partnerships between like-minded organizations and coalition building.

  1. In search of the plague. The Greek peninsula faces the black death, 14th to 19th centuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostis, K P

    1998-01-01

    Histories of the plague are based on the belief that we can locate epidemics in the related sources and classify them according to present-day medical categories. This article rests upon the assumption that present day medical discourse which is based upon laboratory observation is totally incompatible with history which lacks analogous techniques in constructing its own discourse. It explores the possibilities and the limits of a history of the plague based upon the phenomenology of the disease as recorded in the sources that concern the period of the second pandemic of the plague.

  2. Targeted enrichment of ancient pathogens yielding the pPCP1 plasmid of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, Verena J; Bos, Kirsten; DeWitte, Sharon; Schmedes, Sarah; Jamieson, Joslyn; Mittnik, Alissa; Forrest, Stephen; Coombes, Brian K; Wood, James W; Earn, David J D; White, William; Krause, Johannes; Poinar, Hendrik N

    2011-09-20

    Although investigations of medieval plague victims have identified Yersinia pestis as the putative etiologic agent of the pandemic, methodological limitations have prevented large-scale genomic investigations to evaluate changes in the pathogen's virulence over time. We screened over 100 skeletal remains from Black Death victims of the East Smithfield mass burial site (1348-1350, London, England). Recent methods of DNA enrichment coupled with high-throughput DNA sequencing subsequently permitted reconstruction of ten full human mitochondrial genomes (16 kb each) and the full pPCP1 (9.6 kb) virulence-associated plasmid at high coverage. Comparisons of molecular damage profiles between endogenous human and Y. pestis DNA confirmed its authenticity as an ancient pathogen, thus representing the longest contiguous genomic sequence for an ancient pathogen to date. Comparison of our reconstructed plasmid against modern Y. pestis shows identity with several isolates matching the Medievalis biovar; however, our chromosomal sequences indicate the victims were infected with a Y. pestis variant that has not been previously reported. Our data reveal that the Black Death in medieval Europe was caused by a variant of Y. pestis that may no longer exist, and genetic data carried on its pPCP1 plasmid were not responsible for the purported epidemiological differences between ancient and modern forms of Y. pestis infections.

  3. Preventing Stroke Deaths

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... die within minutes. Strokes happen more in some populations and geographic areas. Stroke death declines have stalled in 3 out of every 4 states. Blacks have the highest stroke death rates among all ...

  4. "I 'See' Trayvon Martin": What Teachers Can Learn from the Tragic Death of a Young Black Male

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Bettina L.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this article is to examine the racially hostile environment of U.S. public schooling towards Black males. Drawing on the work of Foucault ("Discipline and punish. The birth of the prison," Penguin Books, London, 1977; "Michel Foucault: beyond structuralism and hermeneutics," The Harvester Press, Brighton, 1982)…

  5. Vitamin D deficiency and its association with low bone mineral density, HIV-related factors, hospitalization, and death in a predominantly black HIV-infected cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Jeffrey E; Mesner, Octavio C; Weintrob, Amy C; Hadigan, Colleen M; Wilkins, Kenneth J; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy F; Aronson, Naomi E

    2012-12-01

    Low bone mineral density (BMD) is common among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and present in higher rates in black subjects. This study assessed vitamin D levels in HIV cases versus noninfected matched controls to determine if deficiency was associated with BMD and HIV clinical outcomes. In total, 271 military beneficiaries with HIV underwent dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) screening in 2001-2. Serum 25OH-vitamin D levels were determined using stored serum from the time of DEXA and 6-18 months prior. Two non-HIV-infected controls for each active duty case (n = 205) were matched on age, sex, race, zip code, and season using the Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR). Vitamin D levels History study. In total, 165 of 205 (80.5%) active duty HIV cases had 2 matched controls available. HIV cases had greater odds of for vitamin D deficiency (VDD) compared with controls (demographics adjusted paired data odds ratio [OR], 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI], .87-2.45), but this was not statistically significant. Blacks were disproportionately deficient (P death revealed no significant associations with vitamin D levels. VDD was highly prevalent in black HIV- infected persons but did not explain the observed racial disparity in BMD. Vitamin D deficiency was not more common among HIV- infected persons, nor did it seem associated with HIV- related factors/clinical outcomes.

  6. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  7. A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burattini, M N; Coutinho, F A B; Massad, E

    2009-07-01

    We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(0), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, R(0), is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of R(0) is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning.

  8. Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clancy, L.; Goodman, P.; Sinclair, H.; Dockery, D.W. [Harvard University, Boston, MA (United States). School of Public Health

    2002-10-19

    Particulate air pollution episodes have been associated with increased daily death. However, there is little direct evidence that diminished particulate air pollution concentrations would lead to reductions in death rates. We assessed the effect of air pollution controls (ie, the ban on coal sales) on particulate air pollution and death rates in Dublin. Concentrations of air pollution and directly-standardised non-trauma, respiratory, and cardiovascular death rates were compared for 72 months before and after the ban of coal sales in Dublin. The effect of the ban on age-standardised death rates was estimated with an interrupted time-series analysis, adjusting for weather, respiratory epidemics, and death rates in the rest of Ireland. Average black smoke concentrations in Dublin declined by 35.6 {mu}g/ml{sup 3} (70%) after the ban on coal sales. Adjusted non-trauma death rates decreased by 5.7% (95% CI 4.7, p {lt} 0.0001), respiratory deaths by 15.5% (12-19, p {lt} 0.0001), and cardiovascular deaths by 10.3% (8-13, p {lt} 0.0001). Respiratory and cardiovascular standardised death rates fell coincident with the ban on coal sales. About 116 fewer respiratory deaths and 243 fewer cardiovascular deaths were seen per year in Dublin after the ban. Thus reductions in respiratory and cardiovascular death rates in Dublin suggest that control of particulate air pollution could substantially diminish daily death.

  9. Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    that the 1400-1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438-1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved.

  10. Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Galanaud

    with the view that the 1400-1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438-1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved.

  11. Using the distribution of the CCR5-Δ32 allele in third-generation Maltese citizens to disprove the Black Death hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, B; Schembri-Wismayer, P

    2011-04-01

    Malta was under Norman rule for over 400 years and has had three major documented plague outbreaks (and a number of minor ones) since the 14th century with death tolls of 5-15% of the population at the time. This makes the Maltese population ideal for testing the hypothesis that the Black Death (particularly that of 1346-52) was responsible for a genetic shift that spread the CCR5-Δ32 allele. By enrolling 300 blood donors to determine the percentage of the Maltese population resistant to HIV-1 (which uses the CCR5-receptor to infect cells), it was established that the CCR5-Δ32 allele frequency is almost zero in third-generation Maltese citizens and sequencing showed that the deletion observed in the region of interest is the 32-base deletion expected. Thus, despite the extensive Norman occupation and the repeated plague cullings, the CCR5-Δ32 allele frequency is extremely low. This provides a basis for the discussion of conflicting hypotheses regarding the possible origin, function and spread of the CCR5-Δ32 deletion. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Late Cenozoic tephrochronology, stratigraphy, geomorphology, and neotectonics of the Western Black Mountains Piedmont, Death Valley, California: Implications for the spatial and temporal evolution of the Death Valley fault zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knott, Jeffrey Rayburn

    This study presents the first detailed tephrochronologic study of the central Death Valley area by correlation of a Nomlaki-like tuff (>3.35 Ma), tuffs of the Mesquite Spring family (3.1 -- 3.35 Ma), a tuff of the lower Glass Mountain family (1.86 -- 2.06 Ma), and tephra layers from the upper Glass Mountain family (0.8 -- 1.2 Ma), the Bishop ash bed (0.76 Ma), the Lava Creek B ash bed (~0.66 Ma), and the Dibekulewe ash bed (~0.51 Ma). Correlation of these tuffs and tephra layers provides the first reliable numeric-age stratigraphy for late Cenozoic alluvial fan and lacustrine deposits for Death Valley and resulted in the naming of the informal early to middle Pleistocene Mormon Ploint formation. Using the numeric-age stratigraphy, the Death Valley fault zone (DVFZ) is interpreted to have progressively stepped basinward since the late Pliocene at Mormon Point and Copper Canyon. The Mormon Point turtleback or low-angle normal fault is shown to have unequivocal late Quaternary slip at its present low angle dip. Tectonic geomorphic analysis indicates that the (DVFZ) is composed of five geomorphic segments with the most persistent segment boundaries being the en-echelon step at Mormon Point and the bedrock salient at Artists Drive. Subsequent geomorphic studies resulting from the numeric-age stratigraphy and structural relations include application of Gilberts field criteria to the benches at Mormon Point indicating that the upper bench is a lacustrine strandline and the remaining topographically-lower benches are fault scarps across the 160--185 ka lake abrasion platform. In addition, the first known application of cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al exposure dating to a rock avalanche complex south of Badwater yielded an age of 29.5 +/- 1.9 ka for the younger avalanche. The 28 meter offset of the older avalanche may be interpreted as post-160--185 ka yielding a 0.1 mm/year slip rate, or post-29.5 +/- 1.9 ka yielding a maximum slip rate of 0.9 nun/year for the DVFZ. A consequence

  13. Camphor--a fumigant during the Black Death and a coveted fragrant wood in ancient Egypt and Babylon--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Weiyang; Vermaak, Ilze; Viljoen, Alvaro

    2013-05-10

    The fragrant camphor tree (Cinnamomum camphora) and its products, such as camphor oil, have been coveted since ancient times. Having a rich history of traditional use, it was particularly used as a fumigant during the era of the Black Death and considered as a valuable ingredient in both perfume and embalming fluid. Camphor has been widely used as a fragrance in cosmetics, as a food flavourant, as a common ingredient in household cleaners, as well as in topically applied analgesics and rubefacients for the treatment of minor muscle aches and pains. Camphor, traditionally obtained through the distillation of the wood of the camphor tree, is a major essential oil component of many aromatic plant species, as it is biosynthetically synthesised; it can also be chemically synthesised using mainly turpentine as a starting material. Camphor exhibits a number of biological properties such as insecticidal, antimicrobial, antiviral, anticoccidial, anti-nociceptive, anticancer and antitussive activities, in addition to its use as a skin penetration enhancer. However, camphor is a very toxic substance and numerous cases of camphor poisoning have been documented. This review briefly summarises the uses and synthesis of camphor and discusses the biological properties and toxicity of this valuable molecule.

  14. Camphor—A Fumigant during the Black Death and a Coveted Fragrant Wood in Ancient Egypt and Babylon—A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Viljoen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The fragrant camphor tree (Cinnamomum camphora and its products, such as camphor oil, have been coveted since ancient times. Having a rich history of traditional use, it was particularly used as a fumigant during the era of the Black Death and considered as a valuable ingredient in both perfume and embalming fluid. Camphor has been widely used as a fragrance in cosmetics, as a food flavourant, as a common ingredient in household cleaners, as well as in topically applied analgesics and rubefacients for the treatment of minor muscle aches and pains. Camphor, traditionally obtained through the distillation of the wood of the camphor tree, is a major essential oil component of many aromatic plant species, as it is biosynthetically synthesised; it can also be chemically synthesised using mainly turpentine as a starting material. Camphor exhibits a number of biological properties such as insecticidal, antimicrobial, antiviral, anticoccidial, anti-nociceptive, anticancer and antitussive activities, in addition to its use as a skin penetration enhancer. However, camphor is a very toxic substance and numerous cases of camphor poisoning have been documented. This review briefly summarises the uses and synthesis of camphor and discusses the biological properties and toxicity of this valuable molecule.

  15. Understanding the Opioid Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Opioid Overdose Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Opioid Overdose Opioid Basics Understanding the Epidemic Commonly Used ...

  16. Mortality Rates during Cholera Epidemic, Haiti, 2010-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquero, Francisco J; Rondy, Marc; Boncy, Jacques; Munger, André; Mekaoui, Helmi; Rymshaw, Ellen; Page, Anne-Laure; Toure, Brahima; Degail, Marie Amelie; Nicolas, Sarala; Grandesso, Francesco; Ginsbourger, Maud; Polonsky, Jonathan; Alberti, Kathryn P; Terzian, Mego; Olson, David; Porten, Klaudia; Ciglenecki, Iza

    2016-03-01

    The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1-35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported.

  17. Mortality Rates during Cholera Epidemic, Haiti, 2010–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondy, Marc; Boncy, Jacques; Munger, André; Mekaoui, Helmi; Rymshaw, Ellen; Page, Anne-Laure; Toure, Brahima; Degail, Marie Amelie; Nicolas, Sarala; Grandesso, Francesco; Ginsbourger, Maud; Polonsky, Jonathan; Alberti, Kathryn P.; Terzian, Mego; Olson, David; Porten, Klaudia; Ciglenecki, Iza

    2016-01-01

    The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1–35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported. PMID:26886511

  18. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism.......Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...

  19. Discrete epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Fred; Feng, Zhilan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical theory of single outbreak epidemic models really began with the work of Kermack and Mackendrick about decades ago. This gave a simple answer to the long-standing question of why epidemics woould appear suddenly and then disappear just as suddenly without having infected an entire population. Therefore it seemed natural to expect that theoreticians would immediately proceed to expand this mathematical framework both because the need to handle recurrent single infectious disease outbreaks has always been a priority for public health officials and because theoreticians often try to push the limits of exiting theories. However, the expansion of the theory via the inclusion of refined epidemiological classifications or through the incorporation of categories that are essential for the evaluation of intervention strategies, in the context of ongoing epidemic outbreaks, did not materialize. It was the global threat posed by SARS in that caused theoreticians to expand the Kermack-McKendrick single-outbreak framework. Most recently, efforts to connect theoretical work to data have exploded as attempts to deal with the threat of emergent and re-emergent diseases including the most recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, have marched to the forefront of our global priorities. Since data are collected and/or reported over discrete units of time, developing single outbreak models that fit collected data naturally is relevant. In this note, we introduce a discrete-epidemic framework and highlight, through our analyses, the similarities between single-outbreak comparable classical continuous-time epidemic models and the discrete-time models introduced in this note. The emphasis is on comparisons driven by expressions for the final epidemic size.

  20. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  1. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  2. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  3. Thermal and barometric constraints on the intrusive and unroofing history of the Black Mountains: Implications for timing, initial dip, and kinematics of detachment faulting in the Death Valley Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Daniel K.; Snow, J. Kent; Lux, Daniel R.

    1992-06-01

    Unroofing of the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California, has resulted in the exposure of 1.7 Ga crystalline basement, late Precambrian amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks, and a Tertiary magmatic complex. The 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages, obtained from samples collected across the entire length of the range (>55 km), combined with geobarometric results from synextensional intrusions, provide time-depth constraints on the Miocene intrusive history and extensional unroofing of the Black Mountains. Data from the southeastern Black Mountains and adjacent Greenwater Range suggest unroofing from shallow depths between 9 and 10 Ma. To the northwest in the crystalline core of the range, biotite plateau ages from ˜13 to 6.8 Ma from rocks making up the Death Valley turtlebacks indicate a midcrustal residence (with temperatures >300°C) prior to extensional unroofing. Biotite 40Ar/39Ar ages from both Precambrian basement and Tertiary plutons reveal a diachronous cooling pattern of decreasing ages toward the northwest, subparallel to the regional extension direction. Diachronous cooling was accompanied by dike intrusion which also decreases in age toward the northwest. The cooling age pattern and geobarometric constraints in crystalline rocks of the Black Mountains suggest denudation of 10-15 km along a northwest directed detachment system, consistent with regional reconstructions of Tertiary extension and with unroofing of a northwest deepening crustal section. Mica cooling ages that deviate from the northwest younging trend are consistent with northwestward transport of rocks initially at shallower crustal levels onto deeper levels along splays of the detachment. The well-known Amargosa chaos and perhaps the Badwater turtleback are examples of this "splaying" process. Considering the current distance of the structurally deepest samples away from moderately to steeply east tilted Tertiary strata in the southeastern Black Mountains, these data indicate an average initial

  4. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  5. Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brightwell, Graham; House, Thomas; Luczak, Malwina

    2018-01-31

    Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size N. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size N tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as [Formula: see text] but more slowly than [Formula: see text]. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.

  6. Health Issues Facing Black Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Inez Smith

    Black women in the United States experience a high incidence of serious health problems and, as a group, receive insufficient and inadequate medical care. The death rate for black women suffering from breast cancer has increased substantially since 1950. Also of great concern is the high incidence of cervical cancer in low income black women…

  7. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

  9. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  10. Epidemic hepatitis E

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In a sample study of nearly 3600 persons, we found 138 cases, with an attack rate of nearly 4%, and one death with case-mortality rate of 0.7%. Extrapolating this to the population of the city, there were about 80000 cases. However, health records showed a total of 48 deaths, with mortality estimate of below 1 in a 1000.

  11. Antiretroviral Medication Adherence During The Ebola Epidemic In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak is the largest in history and the first in West Africa. The outbreak affected multiple countries in West Africa. Worldwide, there have been 28,639 cases of Ebola virus disease and 11,316 deaths at 13 March 2016 in the world's worst recorded Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

  12. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-01-01

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (−1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (−844 T > C) and CASP8 (−652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = −2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = −2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of variants in cell death pathway genes

  13. The combined risks of reduced or increased function variants in cell death pathway genes differentially influence cervical cancer risk and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among black Africans and the Mixed Ancestry population of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Koushik; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Hazra, Annapurna; Dandara, Collet

    2015-10-12

    Cervical cancer is one of the most important cancers worldwide with a high incident and mortality rate and is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV). Among sexually active women who get infected with human papillomavirus (HPV), a small fraction progresses to cervical cancer disease pointing to possible roles of additional risk factors in development of the disease which include host genetic factors and other infections such as HSV-2. Since cellular apoptosis plays a role in controlling the spread of virus-infections in cells, gene variants altering the function of proteins involved in cell death pathways might be associated with the clearing of virus infections. Activity altering polymorphisms in FasR (-1377G > A and -670A > G), FasL (-844 T > C) and CASP8 (-652 6 N ins/del) genes have been shown to alter the mechanism of apoptosis by modifying the level of expression of their correspondent proteins. In the present study, we set out to investigate the combined risks of CASP8, FasR, and FasL polymorphisms in cervical cancer, pre-cancerous lesions, HPV infection and HSV-2 infection. Participants were 442 South African women of black African and mixed-ancestry origin with invasive cervical cancer and 278 control women matched by age, ethnicity and domicile status. FasR and FasL polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan and CASP8 polymorphism by PCR-RFLP. The results were analysed with R using haplo.stats software version 1.5.2. CASP8 -652 6 N del + FasR-670A was associated with a reduced risk (P = 0.019, Combined Polymorphism Score (CPS) = -2.34) and CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377G was associated with a marginal increased risk (P = 0.047, CPS = 1.99) of cervical cancer among black Africans. When compared within the control group, CASP8 -652 6 N ins + FasR-1377A showed a reduced risk (P = 0.023, CPS = -2.28) of HSV-2 infection in both black African and mixed-ancestry population. Our results show that the combined risks of

  14. Black to Black

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langkjær, Michael Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Pop musicians performing in black stage costume take advantage of cultural traditions relating to matters black. Stylistically, black is a paradoxical color: although a symbol of melancholy, pessimism, and renunciation, black also expresses minimalist modernity and signifies exclusivity (as is hi...... suggested that appreciation of the highly personal motives of both Siouxsie Sioux and Janelle Monáe in wearing black may be achieved via analogies with the minimalist sublime of American artists Frank Stella’s and Ad Reinhardt’s black canvasses.......Pop musicians performing in black stage costume take advantage of cultural traditions relating to matters black. Stylistically, black is a paradoxical color: although a symbol of melancholy, pessimism, and renunciation, black also expresses minimalist modernity and signifies exclusivity (as...... is hinted by Rudyard Kipling’s illustration of ‘The [Black] Cat That Walked by Himself’ in his classic children’s tale). It was well understood by uniformed Anarchists, Fascists and the SS that there is an assertive presence connected with the black-clad figure. The paradox of black’s abstract elegance...

  15. Black and White Differentials in Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rene, Antonio A.; Clifford, Patrick R.

    1986-01-01

    Overviews vital statistics data, emphasizing differences in health status between the Black and White populations with respect to specific diseases and mortality. Discusses major causes of death among US Blacks. (GC)

  16. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Baumann

    Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  17. Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Reche, Francisco J; Neri, Franco M; Taraskin, Sergei N; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2012-09-07

    Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by diseases that lead to permanent immunity of infected hosts after recovery or death. We approach the problem from the perspective of the science of complexity by proposing and testing several strategies for the estimation of important characteristics of epidemics, such as the probability of invasion. Our results suggest that parsimonious approximate methodologies may lead to the most reliable and robust predictions. The proposed methodologies are first applied to analysis of experimentally observed epidemics: invasion of the fungal plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in replicated host microcosms. We then consider numerical experiments of the susceptible-infected-removed model to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in further detail. The suggested framework can be used as a valuable tool for quick assessment of epidemic threat at the stage when epidemics only start developing. Moreover, our work amplifies the significance of the small-scale and finite-time microcosm realizations of epidemics revealing their predictive power.

  18. Nepalese origin of cholera epidemic in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, R R; Keim, P S; Barrais, R; Piarroux, R

    2012-06-01

    Cholera appeared in Haiti in October 2010 for the first time in recorded history. The causative agent was quickly identified by the Haitian National Public Health Laboratory and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Since then, >500 000 government-acknowledged cholera cases and >7000 deaths have occurred, the largest cholera epidemic in the world, with the real death toll probably much higher. Questions of origin have been widely debated with some attributing the onset of the epidemic to climatic factors and others to human transmission. None of the evidence on origin supports climatic factors. Instead, recent epidemiological and molecular-genetic evidence point to the United Nations peacekeeping troops from Nepal as the source of cholera to Haiti, following their troop rotation in early October 2010. Such findings have important policy implications for shaping future international relief efforts. © 2012 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2012 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  19. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Notes: We compiled this slide in 1992. It shows dates, locations and number of cases for various epidemics reported from different parts of India till that time. The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began ...

  20. THE EPIDEMIC OF JUSTINIAN (AD 542): A PRELUDE TO THE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    plague were described vividly by contemporary writers. A major problem was to find ways to dispose of infected corpses. It is estimated that about one third of the popu- lation died — a figure comparable to the death rate during the Black Death in the. Middle Ages. Famine and inflation, the depopulation of the countryside, ...

  1. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  2. [Epidemic of rubella encephalitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Achour, N; Benrhouma, H; Rouissi, A; Touaiti, H; Kraoua, I; Turki, I; Gouider-Khouja, N

    2013-08-01

    Rubella is a mild viral illness in children. Rubella encephalitis is an extremely uncommon complication of rubella affecting unvaccinated children, aged between 5 and 14 years. From May to June 2011, we observed 9 cases of rubella encephalitis diagnosed during an epidemic of rubella. All were previously healthy (8 boys and 1 girl). None of them had received rubella vaccine. The mean age was 11.6 years. The onset of neurological symptoms occurred within 1-5 days after the typical rush and was associated with seizures and altered consciousness in all cases. The presence of serum immunoglobulin M antibody against rubella virus was demonstrated in all patients. EEGs showed slow wave activity in all patients and brain MRI was normal in the 9 cases. Full recovery was obtained in all patients. However, 4 of them required intensive care unit referral. Acute encephalitis is an extremely rare complication of rubella. The main neurological findings are headache, ataxia, and hemiplegia. Epileptic seizure and altered consciousness are rarely observed. Rubella encephalitis is generally self-limiting with about 80% recovery rate with no sequelae. However, severe courses have been reported. These cases illustrated the potential severity of rubella and they should be prevented by encouraging widespread early childhood vaccination. In Tunisia, rubella encephalitis has been reported once previously and vaccination against rubella virus has only recently been included in the national vaccination program, prescribed only for adolescent females. Following this rubella epidemic, vaccination strategies in Tunisia have been revised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    murdered by the time he is aged 35 years.5 Trauma is respon- sible for the deaths of ISO000 Americans each ... people than malignant disease, hean disease and AIDS com- bined.7. South Mrica. South Africa has no ... away trauma patients, the IeU has also to refuse care for those patients who.require intensive monitoring ...

  5. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  6. The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

    1984-01-01

    Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

  7. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  8. The Cappadocia mesothelioma epidemic: its influence in Turkey and abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emri, Salih A

    2017-06-01

    The epidemic of mesothelioma in Cappadocia, Turkey, is unprecedented in medical history. In three Cappadocian villages, Karain, Tuzkoy and "old" Sarihidir, about 50% of all deaths (including neonatal deaths and traffic fatalities) have been caused by mesothelioma. No other epidemic in medical history has caused such a high incidence of death. This is even more unusual when considering that (I) epidemics are caused by infectious agents, not cancer, and (II) mesothelioma is a rare cancer. World-wide mesothelioma incidence varies between 1/10 6 in areas with no asbestos industry to about 10-30/10 6 in areas with asbestos industry. This article reviews how the mesothelioma epidemic was discovered in Cappadocia by Dr. Baris (my mentor), how we initially linked the epidemic to erionite exposure, and later (with Dr. Carbone) to the interaction between genetic predisposition and environmental exposure. Our team's work had an important positive impact on the lives of those living in Cappadocia and also in many genetically predisposed families living around the world. I will discuss how the work that started in three remote Cappadocian villages led to the award of a NCI P01 grant to support our studies. Our studies proved that genetics modulates mineral fiber carcinogenesis and led to the discovery that carriers of germline BAP1 mutations have a very high risk of developing mesothelioma and other malignancies. A new, very active field of research developed following our discoveries to elucidate the mechanism by which BAP1 modulates mineral fiber carcinogenesis as well as to identify additional genes that when mutated increase the risk of mesothelioma and other environmentally related cancers. I am the only surviving member of this research team who saw all the phases of this research and I believe it is important to provide an accurate report, which hopefully will inspire others.

  9. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  10. Forest succession following wildfire and sudden oak death epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay M. DeLong; Kerri M. Frangioso; Margaret R. Metz; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Dave M. Rizzo

    2013-01-01

    The Big Sur region of central California is a rugged, fire-prone area that has been severely affected by Phytophthora ramorum. Meentemeyer et al. (2008) estimated that over 200,000 oaks and tanoaks had been killed by P. ramorum across the Big Sur ecoregion by 2005. In June of 2008, a complex of lightning-initiated...

  11. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  12. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  13. Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic: What Can the World Learn and Not Learn from West Africa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romuladus E. Azuine, DrPH, RN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available WITH over 4,500 deaths and counting, and new cases identified in two developed countries that are struggling and faltering in their handling of the epidemic, the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD epidemic is unlike any of its kind ever encountered. The ability of some poor, resource-limited, developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa to efficiently handle the epidemic within their shores provides some lessons learned for the global health community. Among others, the 2014 EVD epidemic teaches us that it is time to put the “P” back in public and population health around the world. The global health community must support a sustainable strategy to mitigate Ebola virus and other epidemics both within and outside their shores, even after the cameras are gone. Ebola virus must not be called the disease of the poor and developing world.

  14. Compensating Scientism through "The Black Hole."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Lane

    The focal image of the film "The Black Hole" functions as a visual metaphor for the sacred, order, unity, and eternal time. The black hole is a symbol that unites the antinomic pairs of conscious/unconscious, water/fire, immersion/emersion, death/rebirth, and hell/heaven. The black hole is further associated with the quest for…

  15. Black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feast, M.W.

    1981-01-01

    This article deals with two questions, namely whether it is possible for black holes to exist, and if the answer is yes, whether we have found any yet. In deciding whether black holes can exist or not the central role in the shaping of our universe played by the forse of gravity is discussed, and in deciding whether we are likely to find black holes in the universe the author looks at the way stars evolve, as well as white dwarfs and neutron stars. He also discusses the problem how to detect a black hole, possible black holes, a southern black hole, massive black holes, as well as why black holes are studied

  16. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  17. Black Holes: A Selected Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraknoi, Andrew

    1991-01-01

    Offers a selected bibliography pertaining to black holes with the following categories: introductory books; introductory articles; somewhat more advanced articles; readings about Einstein's general theory of relativity; books on the death of stars; articles on the death of stars; specific articles about Supernova 1987A; relevant science fiction…

  18. Anesthetic death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauwers, P

    1978-01-01

    Death due to anesthesia is a tragic paradox. The numbers about the frequency of anesthesia-related-death published in many reports have a relative value, as it is impossible to compare them one to another. A synoptic table of 20 important studies made on this subject, shows a great variation in figures concerning the incidence of death related to anesthesia. The most common causes of "anesthetic-death" are mentioned and some suggestions are made to decrease the frequency of death due to anesthesia.

  19. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  20. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  1. Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

  2. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  3. Scaling behavior of threshold epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2012-05-01

    We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease from infected individuals, while infected ones recover from the disease at a constant rate and are never infected again. Our focus is the behavior at the epidemic threshold where the rates of the infection and recovery processes balance. In the infinite population limit, we establish analytically scaling rules for the time-dependent distribution functions that characterize the sizes of the infected and the recovered sub-populations. Using heuristic arguments, we also obtain scaling laws for the size and duration of the epidemic outbreaks as a function of the total population. We perform numerical simulations to verify the scaling predictions and discuss the consequences of these scaling laws for near-threshold epidemic outbreaks.

  4. Peering into the black hole - the quality of black mortality data in Por ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the year ending 30 June 1989, 26,8% of 5345 deaths in the Port Elizabeth area were classified as ill-defined. A study was undertaken in an attempt to identify the reasons for the high proportion of such deaths. Copies of all death notifications and death register forms of black people in the area served by the Port Elizabeth ...

  5. OBESITY: OVERVIEW OF AN EPIDEMIC

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Nia; Catenacci, Vicki; Wyatt, Holly R.; Hill, James O.

    2011-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the problem, the obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and obesity rates are increasing around the world. The latest estimates are that approximately 34% of adults and 15–20% of children and adolescents in the U.S. are obese. Obesity affects every segment of the U.S. population. Obesity increases the risk of many chronic diseases in children and adults. The epidemic of obesity arose gradually over time, apparently from a small, consistent degree of positive en...

  6. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  7. HIV epidemic in South Africa: A comparison of HIV epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-08-26

    Aug 26, 2014 ... Method: 'Know your epidemic' synthesis suggests that HIV prevalence is rising in older age groups and falling in younger people. Using secondary data analyses of population-based and antenatal care surveillance (ANC) surveys, we explored trends and patterns in HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal and ...

  8. Black Alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Thomas D.; Wright, Roosevelt

    1988-01-01

    Examines some aspects of the problem of alcoholism among Blacks, asserting that Black alcoholism can best be considered in an ecological, environmental, sociocultural, and public health context. Notes need for further research on alcoholism among Blacks and for action to reduce the problem of Black alcoholism. (NB)

  9. Black Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Angela Khristin

    2013-01-01

    The migration of blacks in North America through slavery became united. The population of blacks passed down a tradition of artist through art to native born citizens. The art tradition involved telling stories to each generation in black families. The black culture elevated by tradition created hope to determine their personal freedom to escape…

  10. Tarantula bite leads to death and gangrene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banerjee Kalyan

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Chilobrachys hardwikii-giant black hairy spider bite produced two deaths, one case of gangrene of the foot and urticarial rashes in another person in a remote village of Churulia 30 km from Asansol.

  11. Student Deaths Shake Up College Campuses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Linda Meggett

    2001-01-01

    Reports on two murders at historically Black colleges in South Carolina. Explores reasons for press attention, the schools' responses, law enforcement activities, and recent deaths at other colleges. Sidebars present information on crisis response and statistics on campus crime. (EV)

  12. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  13. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  14. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  15. Census Undercount and the Undercount of the Black Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Phung

    1996-01-01

    Argues that blacks have been disproportionately undercounted in the census and this undercount has resulted in such biased statistics as proportions of black female-headed households, victimization rates of black males, or crude death rates of blacks. Further, these statistics are biased upward and downward, and together they generate distorted…

  16. Opioids: The Prescription Drug & Heroin Overdose Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... About the Epidemic Help, Resources and Information National Opioids Crisis Search Search National Helpline SAMHSA’s National Helpline ... 1-800-662-4357 Visit Helpline Website THE OPIOID EPIDEMIC IN NUMBERS 80% Nearly 80% of heroin ...

  17. The global epidemic of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, Salim; Ounpuu, Stephanie; Anand, Sonia

    2002-01-01

    Of the 50 million deaths that occur in the world, 40 million occur in developing countries. Already a substantial proportion of these deaths are due to cardiovascular diseases. It is projected that by the year 2025 well over 80-90% of all the cardiovascular diseases in the world will be occurring in low income and middle income countries. This increase in cardiovascular disease is due to a number of causes which include the following: (1) conquest of deaths in childhood and infancy from nutritional deficiencies and infection; (2) urbanization with increasing levels of obesity; (3) increasing longevity of the population so that a higher proportion of individuals reach the age when they are subject to chronic diseases, and (4) increasing use of tobacco worldwide. In most countries in the world other than those in the West, the burden of disease is still due to a combination of infections and nutritional disorders as well as those due to chronic diseases. This double burden of disease poses a challenge that is not only medical and epidemiological, but also social and political. Tackling this projected global epidemic of cardiovascular disease therefore needs policies that combine sound knowledge of prevention, good clinical care, but also deals with the allocation of resources for both individual level and community level preventive strategies. The former involves dealing with high-risk individuals through appropriate medical and therapeutic interventions. The latter involves societal level changes including laws that curb the use of tobacco, and strategies that promote physical activities, and appropriate nutrition. Copyright 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

  18. How Did Cause of Death Contribute to Racial Differences in Life Expectancy in the United States in 2010?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... death to the difference in life expectancy between black and white persons: United States, 2010 SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Mortality. What causes of death influenced the difference in life expectancy between black ...

  19. Cardiovascular disease in Latin America: the growing epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Lanas; Pamela, Serón; Alejandra, Lanas

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) produce almost a million deaths a year in Latin America (LA), becoming the main cause of death in the last years, and it is estimated that the number of deaths in the region attributable to CVD will increase in the near future. This new epidemic is a consequence of the demographic, economic and social changes observed in LA in recent years. Coronary heart disease and stroke causes 42.5% and 28.8%, respectively of the CVD mortality in the region. Chagas heart involvement and rheumatic heart disease, once a major health problem, are responsible of only 1% of the mortality each. Improving in socioeconomic status, increased life expectancy and high prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis have been the major determinants of this marked epidemiologic change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

    2013-11-01

    It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

  1. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  2. NCHS Data on Drug-poisoning Deaths

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Hispanic white persons, 12.2 for non-Hispanic black persons, and 7.7 for Hispanic persons. Age In 2015, the drug-poisoning death rate was highest for adults aged 45–54. SOURCE: NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Mortality. Drug-poisoning death rates, by state ...

  3. Epidemic spread on weighted networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion (r0 and the basic reproductive ratio (R0, from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

  4. Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrais, Robert; Faucher, Benoît; Haus, Rachel; Piarroux, Martine; Gaudart, Jean; Magloire, Roc; Raoult, Didier

    2011-01-01

    After onset of a cholera epidemic in Haiti in mid-October 2010, a team of researchers from France and Haiti implemented field investigations and built a database of daily cases to facilitate identification of communes most affected. Several models were used to identify spatiotemporal clusters, assess relative risk associated with the epidemic’s spread, and investigate causes of its rapid expansion in Artibonite Department. Spatiotemporal analyses highlighted 5 significant clusters (p<0.001): 1 near Mirebalais (October 16–19) next to a United Nations camp with deficient sanitation, 1 along the Artibonite River (October 20–28), and 3 caused by the centrifugal epidemic spread during November. The regression model indicated that cholera more severely affected communes in the coastal plain (risk ratio 4.91) along the Artibonite River downstream of Mirebalais (risk ratio 4.60). Our findings strongly suggest that contamination of the Artibonite and 1 of its tributaries downstream from a military camp triggered the epidemic. PMID:21762567

  5. Modernising epidemic science: enabling patient-centred research during epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojek, Amanda M; Horby, Peter W

    2016-12-19

    Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological investigations and traditional public health responses are generally mounted very quickly. However, patient-centred research is usually not prioritised when planning and enacting the response. Instead, the clinical research response occurs subsequent to and separate from the public health response, and is inadequate for evidence-based decision-making at the bedside or in the offices of public health policymakers. The deficiencies of the clinical research response to severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus demonstrate that current research models do not adequately inform and improve the quality of clinical care or public health response. Three suggestions for improvements are made. First, integrate the data and sample collection needs for clinical and public health decision-making within a unified framework, combined with a risk-based, rather than a discipline-based, approach to ethical review and consent. Second, develop clinical study methods and tools that are specifically designed to meet the epidemiological and contextual challenges of emerging and epidemic infectious diseases. Third, invest in investigator-led clinical research networks that are primed and incentivised to respond to outbreak infections, and which can call on the support and resources of a central centre of excellence. It is crucial that the field of epidemic science matures to place patients at the heart of the response. This can only be achieved when patient-centred research is integrated in the outbreak response from day one and practical steps are taken to reduce the barriers to the generation of reliable and useful evidence.

  6. Practice points: Corporate response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Practice points: Corporate response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in uganda – time for a paradigm shift? ... or at least delay of HIV/AIDS related consequences such as: frequent absences from work, erosion of company skills and knowledge through key employee deaths, and the costs of hiring and training replacements etc.

  7. Cholera Mortality during Urban Epidemic, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, August 16, 2015-January 16, 20161.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrickard, Lindsey S; Massay, Amani Elibariki; Narra, Rupa; Mghamba, Janneth; Mohamed, Ahmed Abade; Kishimba, Rogath Saika; Urio, Loveness John; Rusibayamila, Neema; Magembe, Grace; Bakari, Muhammud; Gibson, James J; Eidex, Rachel Barwick; Quick, Robert E

    2017-12-01

    In 2015, a cholera epidemic occurred in Tanzania; most cases and deaths occurred in Dar es Salaam early in the outbreak. We evaluated cholera mortality through passive surveillance, burial permits, and interviews conducted with decedents' caretakers. Active case finding identified 101 suspected cholera deaths. Routine surveillance had captured only 48 (48%) of all cholera deaths, and burial permit assessments captured the remainder. We interviewed caregivers of 56 decedents to assess cholera management behaviors. Of 51 decedents receiving home care, 5 (10%) used oral rehydration solution after becoming ill. Caregivers reported that 51 (93%) of 55 decedents with known time of death sought care before death; 16 (29%) of 55 delayed seeking care for >6 h. Of the 33 (59%) community decedents, 20 (61%) were said to have been discharged from a health facility before death. Appropriate and early management of cholera cases can reduce the number of cholera deaths.

  8. SIS Epidemic Propagation on Hypergraphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodó, Ágnes; Katona, Gyula Y; Simon, Péter L

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical modelling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact master equations of the propagation process are derived for an arbitrary hypergraph given by its incidence matrix. Based on these, moment closure approximation and mean-field models are introduced and compared to individual-based stochastic simulations. The simulation algorithm, developed for networks, is extended to hypergraphs. The effects of hypergraph structure and the model parameters are investigated via individual-based simulation results.

  9. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  10. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover......, this metric is able to identify the set of nodes which are more vulnerable under an epidemic attack. In addition, two applications of epidemic survivability are provided. First, we introduce epidemic criticality, a novel robustness metric for epidemic failure scenarios. A case study shows the utility...

  11. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models in telecommunicat......Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur...

  12. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  13. Black Culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Khristin Brown

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The migration of blacks in North America through slavery became united.  The population of blacks past downs a tradition of artist through art to native born citizens. The art tradition involved telling stories to each generation in black families. The black culture elevated by tradition created hope to determine their personal freedom to escape from poverty of enslavement and to establish a way of life through tradition. A way of personal freedoms was through getting a good education that lead to a better foundation and a better way of life.

  14. Cause of death affects racial classification on death certificates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Noymer

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests racial classification is responsive to social stereotypes, but how this affects racial classification in national vital statistics is unknown. This study examines whether cause of death influences racial classification on death certificates. We analyze the racial classifications from a nationally representative sample of death certificates and subsequent interviews with the decedents' next of kin and find notable discrepancies between the two racial classifications by cause of death. Cirrhosis decedents are more likely to be recorded as American Indian on their death certificates, and homicide victims are more likely to be recorded as Black; these results remain net of controls for followback survey racial classification, indicating that the relationship we reveal is not simply a restatement of the fact that these causes of death are more prevalent among certain groups. Our findings suggest that seemingly non-racial characteristics, such as cause of death, affect how people are racially perceived by others and thus shape U.S. official statistics.

  15. A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

    2016-11-01

    An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

  16. The influence of phylodynamic model specifications on parameter estimates of the Zika virus epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boskova, Veronika; Stadler, Tanja; Magnus, Carsten

    2018-01-01

    Each new virus introduced into the human population could potentially spread and cause a worldwide epidemic. Thus, early quantification of epidemic spread is crucial. Real-time sequencing followed by Bayesian phylodynamic analysis has proven to be extremely informative in this respect. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses require a model to be chosen and prior distributions on model parameters to be specified. We study here how choices regarding the tree prior influence quantification of epidemic spread in an emerging epidemic by focusing on estimates of the parameters clock rate, tree height, and reproductive number in the currently ongoing Zika virus epidemic in the Americas. While parameter estimates are quite robust to reasonable variations in the model settings when studying the complete data set, it is impossible to obtain unequivocal estimates when reducing the data to local Zika epidemics in Brazil and Florida, USA. Beyond the empirical insights, this study highlights the conceptual differences between the so-called birth-death and coalescent tree priors: while sequence sampling times alone can strongly inform the tree height and reproductive number under a birth-death model, the coalescent tree height prior is typically only slightly influenced by this information. Such conceptual differences together with non-trivial interactions of different priors complicate proper interpretation of empirical results. Overall, our findings indicate that phylodynamic analyses of early viral spread data must be carried out with care as data sets may not necessarily be informative enough yet to provide estimates robust to prior settings. It is necessary to do a robustness check of these data sets by scanning several models and prior distributions. Only if the posterior distributions are robust to reasonable changes of the prior distribution, the parameter estimates can be trusted. Such robustness tests will help making real-time phylodynamic analyses of spreading epidemic more

  17. Surviving death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstroem, Anna

    2013-01-01

    by another bank to which bankers needed to adapt. Even in the acquiring organization, the legacy organizational identity continued to play a significant role. The paper contributes to the important and timely emergence of theory on legacy organizational identity by showing how members of a dead organization...... such phases. The aim of this paper is to explore how an organization’s identity is re-constructed after organizational death. Based on interviews with members of a bankrupted bank who narrate their bankruptcy experiences, the paper explores how legacy organizational identity is constructed after...... organizational death. The paper shows how members draw on their legacy organizational identity to justify their past interpretations and responses to the intensifying bankruptcy threats. Members refer to their firm belief in the bank’s solid and robust identity claim when they explain how they disregarded...

  18. Black Cohosh

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... who have had hormone-sensitive conditions such as breast cancer or for pregnant women or nursing mothers. Black cohosh should not be confused with blue cohosh (Caulophyllum thalictroides) , which has different effects and may not be safe. Black cohosh has ...

  19. Epidemic corruption: a bio-economic homology

    OpenAIRE

    Hathroubi, Salem

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to study corruption as an epidemic phenomenon using the epidemic diffusion model of Kermack and Mc-Kendrick (1927). We seek to determine the dynamics of corruption and its impact on the composition of the population at a given time. We determine a threshold epidemiological corruption based on the approximation of the honest population.

  20. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  1. Reemerging threat of epidemic typhus in Algeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrani, K; Fournier, P E; Dalichaouche, M; Tebbal, S; Aouati, A; Raoult, D

    2004-08-01

    We report a case of epidemic typhus in a patient from the Batna region of Algeria, who presented with generalized febrile exanthema. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed by serological cross-adsorption followed by Western blotting. Our report emphasizes the threat of epidemic typhus in the highlands of Algeria.

  2. Deterministic Seirs Epidemic Model for Modeling Vital Dynamics, Vaccinations, and Temporary Immunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek B. Trawicki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the author proposes a new SEIRS model that generalizes several classical deterministic epidemic models (e.g., SIR and SIS and SEIR and SEIRS involving the relationships between the susceptible S, exposed E, infected I, and recovered R individuals for understanding the proliferation of infectious diseases. As a way to incorporate the most important features of the previous models under the assumption of homogeneous mixing (mass-action principle of the individuals in the population N, the SEIRS model utilizes vital dynamics with unequal birth and death rates, vaccinations for newborns and non-newborns, and temporary immunity. In order to determine the equilibrium points, namely the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, and study their local stability behaviors, the SEIRS model is rescaled with the total time-varying population and analyzed according to its epidemic condition R0 for two cases of no epidemic (R0 ≤ 1 and epidemic (R0 > 1 using the time-series and phase portraits of the susceptible s, exposed e, infected i, and recovered r individuals. Based on the experimental results using a set of arbitrarily-defined parameters for horizontal transmission of the infectious diseases, the proportional population of the SEIRS model consisted primarily of the recovered r (0.7–0.9 individuals and susceptible s (0.0–0.1 individuals (epidemic and recovered r (0.9 individuals with only a small proportional population for the susceptible s (0.1 individuals (no epidemic. Overall, the initial conditions for the susceptible s, exposed e, infected i, and recovered r individuals reached the corresponding equilibrium point for local stability: no epidemic (DFE X ¯ D F E and epidemic (EE X ¯ E E .

  3. Gender and leadership for health literacy to combat the epidemic rise of noncommunicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhanzva, Rufaro; Marara, Praise; Duxbury, Theodore; Bobbins, Amy Claire; Pearse, Noel; Hoel, Erik; Mzizi, Thandi; Srinivas, Sunitha C

    2017-08-01

    Until recently, the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic has been considered only a significant burden to men in high-income countries. However, latest figures indicate that half of all NCD-related deaths affect women, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global responses to the NCD epidemic overlooking the significance of women and girls in their approaches and programs. This case study highlights the burden of disease challenging South Africa that disproportionately affects women in the country and suggests that the country, along with other LMICs internationally, requires a shift in the gender-based leadership of health literacy and self-empowerment.

  4. Cancer Differences in the Black and Caucasian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jack E.

    1977-01-01

    Cancer mortality in U.S. blacks has greatly increased since 1950. This greater increase for blacks was found in 28 of the 56 most frequent cancers. Greater exposure to environmental carcinogens appears to be the main cause. This author recommends a thorough epidemiologic study of the rise in black cancer deaths. (Author/GC)

  5. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    epidemic. However, follow-ups of short duration may, in part, explain the apparent break or decrease in the obesity epidemic. On the other hand, a single focus on body mass index (BMI) ⩾25 or ⩾30 kg m(-)(2) is likely to mask a real increase in the obesity epidemic. And, in both children and adults, trends......Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look...... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  6. Familial epidemic of meningococcal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smilović, V; Vrbanec-Megla, L; Payerl-Pal, M; Puntarić, D; Baklaić, Z

    1998-03-01

    Two closely related boys from the same house hold (Home 1), aged two and three, were affected with fulminant meningococcal sepsis known as Waterhouse-Friderichsen syndrome. Neisseria meningitidis serogorup B was isolated from their blood and cerebrospinal fluid. The two-year-old boy died one day after the onset of the disease. Epidemiological examination of contacts and pharyngeal swabs were performed in 14 persons from the household, all of them relatives of the affected children, as well as in a number of other contacts. Chemoprophylaxis with cotrimoxazole was simultaneously administered to all contacts. Family histories revealed that two contacts from the household where the patients did not live (Home 2) were inadvertently omitted. Subsequent examinations, following a report of another contagious disease (salmonelosis), revealed that these two persons were Neisseria meningitidis carriers, together with another one in the same household. The carriers most probably caused the infection of a third, five-year-old boy, the deceased boy's brother (Home 1) who also developed fulminant meningococcal sepsis. The failure to take the appropriate prophylaxis led to a prolonged carrier state in the carrier from the second household. Repeated pharyngeal swab sampling revealed two more carriers from both households that had previously been negative. Control of the epidemic was achieved after 5 weeks by repeated and controlled chemoprophylaxis with ciprofloxacin, and by repeated epidemiological examinations, disinfection, and daily health surveillance by the Sanitary Inspectorate. This extremely rare instance of a familial epidemic with three infected persons emphasizes the need for consistent chemoprophylaxis in meningococcal disease contacts.

  7. Black widow spider envenomation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Michael E

    2006-11-01

    Black widow spiders are found throughout the continental United States and north into the southern Canadian provinces. Male black widow spiders are of little medical importance. Female black widow spiders can be 20 times larger than males. The female can be identified by the hourglass pattern, red or orange in color, on the ventral aspect of her shiny, globose black abdomen. Black widow spiders control the amount of venom they inject; an estimated 15% of bites to humans are non-envenomating. Cats are very sensitive to the venom and deaths are common. Dogs have severe clinical signs but are considered more resistant than cats. A single bite is capable of delivering a lethal dose of venom to companion animals. There are several toxic components consisting of five or six biologically active proteins. These include a potent mammalian neurotoxin called alpha-latrotoxin, which induces neurotransmitter release from nerve terminals. Acetylcholine, noradrenalin, dopamine, glutamate, and enkephalin systems are all susceptible to the toxin. Onset of clinical signs usually occurs during the first 8 hours post envenomation. The condition is extremely painful in moderate to severe envenomations. Abdominal rigidity without tenderness is a hallmark sign of Latrodectus envenomation. In cats, paralytic signs may occur early and are particularly marked. Hypertension is a significant threat. First aid is of no value in the treatment. The primary treatment for black widow spider envenomation is the administration of specific antivenin, which provides the most permanent and quickest relief of the envenomation syndrome, usually within 30 minutes of infusion. The prognosis of Latrodectus envenomation is uncertain of several days, and complete recovery may take weeks.

  8. Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Tomás; Lozano, Jose Eugenio; Meerhoff, Tamara; Snacken, René; Mott, Joshua; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raul; Nunes, Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558. Background  Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives  (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza‐like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods  The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross‐validation procedure. Results  The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions  The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe. PMID:22897919

  9. Death penalty

    OpenAIRE

    Ondík, Ján

    2008-01-01

    The issue of the death penalty is not just a matter of legal and political, but mainly social, ethical and moral. As other questions like abortion, euthanasia and gay adoption of children, this issue forces us to make up our own opinion and take an attitude. In addition, capital punishment is not only historical relic, but there are still lot of states that retained it in their legal system and also a lot of states that can perform it today. And it is not just a totalitarian or authoritarian ...

  10. Black Tea

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... leaves of the same plant, has some different properties. Black tea is used for improving mental alertness ... that slow blood clotting include aspirin, clopidogrel (Plavix), diclofenac (Voltaren, Cataflam, others), ibuprofen (Advil, Motrin, others), naproxen ( ...

  11. Peering into the black hole - the quality of black mortality data in Por ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-04-20

    Apr 20, 1991 ... Peering into the black hole - the quality of black mortality data in Por~ Elizabeth and the rest of South Africa. S. VAN DER MERWE, D. YACH, C. A. METCALF. -. Summary. In the year ending 30 June 1989, 26,8% of 5345 deaths in the. Port Elizabeth area were classified as ill-defined. A study was.

  12. Births and deaths including fetal deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Access to a variety of United States birth and death files including fetal deaths: Birth Files, 1968-2009; 1995-2005; Fetal death file, 1982-2005; Mortality files,...

  13. Cardiovascular risk factor profile of black Africans undergoing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a growing epidemic on the African continent. It remains uncertain whether the risk factors identified as contributing to CAD in white populations contribute to a similar extent to CAD incidence in black populations. No data of the local population exists that is based on the ...

  14. Congenital anomalies in rural black South African neonates - a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Congenital anomalies in rural black South African neonates - a silent epidemic? P. A. Venter, A. L. Christianson, C. M. Hutamo, M. P. Makhura, G. S. Gericke. Abstract. Study objective. To ascertain the incidence and spectrum of congenital anomalies in neonates born in a rural hospital. Design. This was a prospective, ...

  15. Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza Epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Baltazar; Viboud, Cecile; Machado, Ausenda; Ringholz, Corinne; Rebelo-de-Andrade, Helena; Nogueira, Paulo; Miller, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Background Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004. Methodology/Principal Findings We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries. Conclusions/Significance Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings. PMID

  16. Premature death rates diverge in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    An NCI press release on a study that shows premature death rates have declined in the United States among Hispanics, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders but increased among whites and American Indian/Alaska Natives.

  17. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  18. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Linda; Terio, Karen A; Kock, Richard; Mlengeya, Titus; Roelke, Melody E; Dubovi, Edward; Summers, Brian; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Packer, Craig

    2008-06-25

    Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality events may become

  19. Climate extremes promote fatal co-infections during canine distemper epidemics in African lions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Munson

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic conditions may alter historic host-pathogen relationships and synchronize the temporal and spatial convergence of multiple infectious agents, triggering epidemics with far greater mortality than those due to single pathogens. Here we present the first data to clearly illustrate how climate extremes can promote a complex interplay between epidemic and endemic pathogens that are normally tolerated in isolation, but with co-infection, result in catastrophic mortality. A 1994 canine distemper virus (CDV epidemic in Serengeti lions (Panthera leo coincided with the death of a third of the population, and a second high-mortality CDV epidemic struck the nearby Ngorongoro Crater lion population in 2001. The extent of adult mortalities was unusual for CDV and prompted an investigation into contributing factors. Serological analyses indicated that at least five "silent" CDV epidemics swept through the same two lion populations between 1976 and 2006 without clinical signs or measurable mortality, indicating that CDV was not necessarily fatal. Clinical and pathology findings suggested that hemoparsitism was a major contributing factor during fatal epidemics. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we measured the magnitude of hemoparasite infections in these populations over 22 years and demonstrated significantly higher levels of Babesia during the 1994 and 2001 epidemics. Babesia levels correlated with mortalities and extent of CDV exposure within prides. The common event preceding the two high mortality CDV outbreaks was extreme drought conditions with wide-spread herbivore die-offs, most notably of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer. As a consequence of high tick numbers after the resumption of rains and heavy tick infestations of starving buffalo, the lions were infected by unusually high numbers of Babesia, infections that were magnified by the immunosuppressive effects of coincident CDV, leading to unprecedented mortality. Such mass mortality

  20. Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Cholera during the First Year of the Epidemic in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Barrais, Robert; Boncy, Jacques; Faucher, Benoit; Piarroux, Martine; Magloire, Roc; Thimothe, Gabriel; Piarroux, Renaud

    2013-01-01

    Background In October 2010, cholera importation in Haiti triggered an epidemic that rapidly proved to be the world's largest epidemic of the seventh cholera pandemic. To establish effective control and elimination policies, strategies rely on the analysis of cholera dynamics. In this report, we describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of cholera and the associated environmental factors. Methodology/Principal findings Cholera-associated morbidity and mortality data were prospectively collected at the commune level according to the World Health Organization standard definition. Attack and mortality rates were estimated and mapped to assess epidemic clusters and trends. The relationships between environmental factors were assessed at the commune level using multivariate analysis. The global attack and mortality rates were 488.9 cases/10,000 inhabitants and 6.24 deaths/10,000 inhabitants, respectively. Attack rates displayed a significantly high level of spatial heterogeneity (varying from 64.7 to 3070.9 per 10,000 inhabitants), thereby suggesting disparate outbreak processes. The epidemic course exhibited two principal outbreaks. The first outbreak (October 16, 2010–January 30, 2011) displayed a centrifugal spread of a damping wave that suddenly emerged from Mirebalais. The second outbreak began at the end of May 2011, concomitant with the onset of the rainy season, and displayed a highly fragmented epidemic pattern. Environmental factors (river and rice fields: p<0.003) played a role in disease dynamics exclusively during the early phases of the epidemic. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that the epidemic is still evolving, with a changing transmission pattern as time passes. Such an evolution could have hardly been anticipated, especially in a country struck by cholera for the first time. These results argue for the need for control measures involving intense efforts in rapid and exhaustive case tracking. PMID:23593516

  1. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  2. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...

  3. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  4. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  5. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  6. The Cholera Epidemic in Zimbabwe, 2008-2009: A Review and Critique of the Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuneo, C Nicholas; Sollom, Richard; Beyrer, Chris

    2017-12-01

    The 2008-2009 Zimbabwe cholera epidemic resulted in 98,585 reported cases and caused more than 4,000 deaths. In this study, we used a mixed-methods approach that combined primary qualitative data from a 2008 Physicians for Human Rights-led investigation with a systematic review and content analysis of the scientific literature. Our initial investigation included semi-structured interviews of 92 key informants, which we supplemented with reviews of the social science and human rights literature, as well as international news reports. Our systematic review of the scientific literature retrieved 59 unique citations, of which 30 met criteria for inclusion in the content analysis: 14 of the 30 (46.7%) articles mentioned the political dimension of the epidemic, while 7 (23.3%) referenced Mugabe or his political party (ZANU-PF). Our investigation revealed that the 2008-2009 Zimbabwean cholera epidemic was exacerbated by a series of human rights abuses, including the politicization of water, health care, aid, and information. The failure of the scientific community to directly address the political determinants of the epidemic exposes challenges to maintaining scientific integrity in the setting of humanitarian responses to complex health and human rights crises. While the period of the cholera epidemic and the health care system collapse is now nearly a decade in the past, the findings of this work remain highly relevant for Zimbabwe and other countries, as complex health and rights interactions remain widespread, and governance concerns continue to limit improvements in human health.

  7. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  8. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  9. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  10. Seeding black holes in cosmological simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, P.; Kobayashi, C.

    2014-08-01

    We present a new model for the formation of black holes in cosmological simulations, motivated by the first star formation. Black holes form from high density peaks of primordial gas, and grow via both gas accretion and mergers. Massive black holes heat the surrounding material, suppressing star formation at the centres of galaxies, and driving galactic winds. We perform an investigation into the physical effects of the model parameters, and obtain a `best' set of these parameters by comparing the outcome of simulations to observations. With this best set, we successfully reproduce the cosmic star formation rate history, black hole mass-velocity dispersion relation, and the size-velocity dispersion relation of galaxies. The black hole seed mass is ˜103 M⊙, which is orders of magnitude smaller than that which has been used in previous cosmological simulations with active galactic nuclei, but suggests that the origin of the seed black holes is the death of Population III stars.

  11. Slave mortality during the cholera epidemic in Rio de Janeiro (1855-1856): a preliminary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodama, Kaori; Pimenta, Tânia Salgado; Bastos, Francisco Inácio; Bellido, Jaime Gregorio

    2012-12-01

    The article offers a preliminary analysis of the sociodemographic profile of deaths recorded during the first cholera epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, based on data gathered from death records at Santa Casa de Misericórdia Hospital. After cholera appeared in the country in 1855, Brazilian medical reports indicated a social bias, with slaves and the free poor suffering high mortality. From a historical perspective, however, little research has been done on the epidemic and its dynamics. The recovery of original data on cholera and the analysis of cholera mortality rates help us to better understand aspects of the slave universe in the urban zone of Rio de Janeiro in the period following the end of the slave trade.

  12. On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

  13. Mathematical models of the AIDS epidemic: An historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, E.A.

    1988-01-01

    Researchers developing mathematical models of the spreading of HIV, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus that causes AIDS, hope to achieve a number of goals. These goals may be classified rather broadly into three categories: understanding, prediction, and control. Understanding which are the key biological and sociological processes spreading this epidemic and leading to the deaths of those infected will allow AIDS researchers to collect better data and to identify ways of slowing the epidemic. Predicting the groups at risk and future numbers of ill people will allow an appropriate allocation of health-care resources. Analysis and comparison of proposed control methods will point out unexpected consequences and allow a better design of these programs. The processes which lead to the spread of HIV are biologically and sociologically complex. Mathematical models allow us to organize our knowledge into a coherent picture and examine the logical consequences, therefore they have the potential to be extremely useful in the search to control this disease. 24 refs., 3 figs.

  14. The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in developing countries; the current scenario in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Yousaf, Muhammad Z; Zia, Sadia; Babar, Masroor E; Ashfaq, Usman A

    2011-01-01

    Abstract HIV (Human Immunodeficiency virus) causes (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) AIDS, in which the immune system of body totally fails to develop any defense against the foreign invaders. Infection with HIV occurs by transfer of blood, semen, and breast milk. HIV/AIDS is a global problem and it results nearly 25 million deaths worldwide. Developing countries like Pakistan have issues regarding Public Health. Currently, epidemic of HIV/AIDS is established in Pakistan and there is a thr...

  15. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  16. Black Willow

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Krinard

    1980-01-01

    Black willow and other species of Salix together comprise a majority of the stocking. Cottonwood is the chief associate, particularly in the early stages, but green ash, sycamore, pecan, persimmon, waterlocust, American elm, baldcypress, red maple, sugarberry, box-elder, and in some areas, silver maple are invaders preceding the next successional stage.

  17. Counseling Blacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vontress, Clemmont E.

    1970-01-01

    Blacks have developed unique environmental perceptions, values, and attitudes, making it difficult for counselors to establish and maintain positive rapport. This article examines attitudinal ingredients posited by Carl Rogers for relevance to this problem, and suggests in-service training to help counselors and other professionals relate…

  18. Black Psyllium

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... by mouth for up to 6 weeks reduces blood sugar in people with type 2 diabetes. Cancer. Diarrhea. Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Other conditions. ... with the dose. Diabetes: Black psyllium can lower blood sugar levels ... with type 2 diabetes by slowing down absorption of carbohydrates. Monitor blood ...

  19. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  20. Epidemic dropsy: A mimic of scleroderma?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anupam Wakhlu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Systemic sclerosis (SSc is an autoimmune connective tissue disease involving the skin and internal organs and characterized pathologically by microvascular damage and increased deposition of connective tissue. Skin changes seen in SSc include edema, inflammation, induration, thickening, and progressive skin fibrosis. Histologically, skin fibrosis, accumulation of compact collagen in the dermis, effacement of rete pegs, infiltration by CD4+ T cells, and skin atrophy are observed. The “toxic oil syndrome” reported from Spain caused an outbreak of a scleroderma-like illness and was caused by ingestion of contaminated rapeseed cooking oil. Epidemic dropsy is caused by ingestion of mustard oil contaminated with the oil of Argemone mexicana. The major alkaloids in Argemone oil are sanguinarine and dihydrosanguinarine. These alkaloids produce widespread capillary dilatation, increased capillary permeability, and endothelial proliferation, akin to the toxic oil syndrome. Cutaneous manifestations include erythematous and tender bilaterally symmetrical pitting edema usually involving lower limbs, skin thickening and tethering, pigmentation, and presence of telangiectasias. The dermatopathology observed in epidemic dropsy includes atrophy and flattening of rete pegs, hypertrophy of and deposition of collagen, vascular dilatation and proliferation, and subcutaneous inflammation and fibrosis. Epidemic dropsy usually presents with subacute multisystem involvement, which may mimic a connective tissue disease. Skin involvement in epidemic dropsy may closely mimic cutaneous manifestations in SSc, both clinically and histologically. Thus, the clinician needs to be aware that epidemic dropsy with cutaneous involvement, especially if encountered sporadically, may be mistakenly diagnosed as scleroderma.

  1. Dimensionality reduction in epidemic spreading models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasca, M.; Rizzo, A.; Gallo, L.; Fortuna, L.; Porfiri, M.

    2015-09-01

    Complex dynamical systems often exhibit collective dynamics that are well described by a reduced set of key variables in a low-dimensional space. Such a low-dimensional description offers a privileged perspective to understand the system behavior across temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to establish low-dimensional representations of large epidemic datasets by using a dimensionality reduction algorithm based on isometric features mapping (ISOMAP). We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data for epidemic spreading in a population of mobile individuals. We find that ISOMAP is successful in embedding high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional manifold, whose topological features are associated with the epidemic outbreak. Across a range of simulation parameters and model instances, we observe that epidemic outbreaks are embedded into a family of closed curves in a three-dimensional space, in which neighboring points pertain to instants that are close in time. The orientation of each curve is unique to a specific outbreak, and the coordinates correlate with the number of infected individuals. A low-dimensional description of epidemic spreading is expected to improve our understanding of the role of individual response on the outbreak dynamics, inform the selection of meaningful global observables, and, possibly, aid in the design of control and quarantine procedures.

  2. Black hole astrophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, R.D.; Thorne, K.S.

    1979-01-01

    Following an introductory section, the subject is discussed under the headings: on the character of research in black hole astrophysics; isolated holes produced by collapse of normal stars; black holes in binary systems; black holes in globular clusters; black holes in quasars and active galactic nuclei; primordial black holes; concluding remarks on the present state of research in black hole astrophysics. (U.K.)

  3. Quantum black holes

    CERN Document Server

    Calmet, Xavier; Winstanley, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Written by foremost experts, this short book gives a clear description of the physics of quantum black holes. The reader will learn about quantum black holes in four and higher dimensions, primordial black holes, the production of black holes in high energy particle collisions, Hawking radiation, black holes in models of low scale quantum gravity and quantum gravitational aspects of black holes.

  4. Death, dynamics and disorder: Terminating reentry in excitable ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Death, dynamics and disorder: Terminating reentry in excitable media by dynamically-induced ... ventricular tachycardia, often leading to death. This is typically treated by rapid stimula- tion from ... Note the non-conducting scar tissue (in black) occupying a significant portion of the ventricle. Pacing is usually applied via an ...

  5. Racial Characteristics and the Imposition of the Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radelet, Michael L.

    1981-01-01

    Data from Florida from 1976-77 show that those accused of murdering Whites are more likely to be sentenced to death than those accused of murdering Blacks. If victim's race is controlled, however, data do not clearly support the hypothesis that defendant's race is strongly associated with imposition of the death penalty. (Author/GC)

  6. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  7. Reversible Myocarditis after Black Widow Spider Envenomation

    OpenAIRE

    Tarek Dendane; Khalid Abidi; Naoufel Madani; Asmae Benthami; Fatima-Zohra Gueddari; Redoune Abouqal; Amine-Ali Zeggwagh

    2012-01-01

    Black widow spiders can cause variable clinical scenarios from local damage to very serious conditions including death. Acute myocardial damage is rarely observed and its prognostic significance is not known. We report a rare case of a 35-year-old man who developed an acute myocarditis with cardiogenic pulmonary edema requiring mechanical ventilation caused by black widow spider's envenomation. The patient was previously healthy. The clinical course was associated with systemic and cardiovasc...

  8. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  9. Epidemic Spreading in Unidirectional Mobile Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

    2017-11-01

    We present an epidemic model combined with a traffic cellular automaton. Each agent or individual is either susceptible (S) or infected (I). An agent with a certain density moves to a fixed direction on one-dimensional lattice. Simulations for SIS model show that the epidemic spreads via migration. We find a dynamical phase transition between infectious and non-infectious phases. If the density exceeds the critical limit ρC, the epidemic spreads into the population. The value of ρC decreases along with the recovery rate as predicted by mean-field theory. However, this theory cannot explain the simulation result that a traffic jam strongly affects the phase transition. It is found that the minimum value of ρC corresponds to the critical value of the jamming transition.

  10. Epidemic and Cascading Survivability of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2014-01-01

    Our society nowadays is governed by complex networks, examples being the power grids, telecommunication networks, biological networks, and social networks. It has become of paramount importance to understand and characterize the dynamic events (e.g. failures) that might happen in these complex...... networks. For this reason, in this paper, we propose two measures to evaluate the vulnerability of complex networks in two different dynamic multiple failure scenarios: epidemic-like and cascading failures. Firstly, we present epidemic survivability ( ES ), a new network measure that describes...... the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Secondly, we propose cascading survivability ( CS ), which characterizes how potentially injurious a node is according to a cascading failure scenario. Then, we show that by using the distribution of values obtained from ES and CS...

  11. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  12. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  13. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  14. Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

  15. Obesity epidemic: overview, pathophysiology, and the intensive care unit conundrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurt, Ryan T; Frazier, Thomas H; McClave, Stephen A; Kaplan, Lee M

    2011-09-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of preventable death in the United States, second only to smoking. The annual number of deaths attributed to obesity is estimated to be as high as 400,000. Nearly 70% of the adult U.S. population is overweight or obese. The historical viewpoint toward obesity has deemed it to be a lifestyle choice or characterological flaw. However, given the emerging research into the development of obesity and its related complications, our perspective is changing. It is now clear that obesity is a heterogeneous disease with many different subtypes, which involves an interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The current epidemic of obesity is the result of an obesogenic environment (which includes energy-dense foods and a lack of physical activity) in individuals who have a genetic susceptibility for developing obesity. The pathophysiology associated with weight gain is much more complex than originally thought. The heterogeneous nature of the disease makes the development of treatment strategies for obesity difficult. Obesity in general is associated with increased all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality (from cardiovascular, diabetic, hepatic, and neoplastic causes). Yet despite increased overall mortality rates, current evidence suggests that when these same patients are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), the obesity provides some protection against mortality. At present, there is no clear explanation for this obesity conundrum in critical illness.

  16. A Tale of Two Gonorrhea Epidemics: Results from the STD Surveillance Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lori Marie; Dowell, Deborah; Bernstein, Kyle; Donnelly, Jennifer; Martins, Summer; Stenger, Mark; Stover, Jeffrey; Weinstock, Hillard

    2012-01-01

    Objective An increasing proportion of gonorrhea in the United States is diagnosed in the private sector, posing a challenge to existing national surveillance systems. We described gonorrhea epidemiology outside sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic settings. Methods Through the STD Surveillance Network (SSuN), health departments in the San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, and Richmond, Virginia, metropolitan areas interviewed systematic samples of men and women reported with gonorrhea by non-STD clinic providers from 2006 through 2008. Results Of 2,138 interviews, 10.0% were from San Francisco, 26.4% were from Seattle, 25.2% were from Denver, 22.9% were from Minneapolis, and 15.5% were from Richmond. A total of 1,165 women were interviewed; 70.1% (815/1,163) were ≤24 years of age, 51.3% (598/1,165) were non-Hispanic black, and 19.0% (213/1,121) reported recent incarceration of self or sex partner. Among 610 men who have sex with only women, 50.9% were ≤24 years of age, 65.1% were non-Hispanic black, 14.1% reported incarceration of self or sex partner, and 16.7% reported anonymous sex. Among 363 men who have sex with men (MSM), 20.9% were ≤24 years of age, 61.6% were non-Hispanic white, 39.8% reported anonymous sex, 35.7% reported using the Internet to meet sex partners, and 12.1% reported methamphetamine use. Conclusions These data identified two concurrent gonorrhea epidemics in minority populations: a young, black, heterosexual epidemic with frequently reported recent incarceration, and an older, mostly white MSM epidemic with more frequently reported anonymous sex, Internet use to meet sex partners, and methamphetamine use. PMID:22547859

  17. Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mee Paul

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Verbal autopsy (VA has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation. Methods Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time. Results Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years. Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably. Conclusions VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two

  18. Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byass, Peter; Kahn, Kathleen; Fottrell, Edward; Mee, Paul; Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M

    2011-08-05

    Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation. Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time. Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably. VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double

  19. Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morse Andrew P

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. Methods A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. Results It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar (R-squared = 0.73, p Conclusion These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region.

  20. Mitigating the future impact of Cholera Epidemics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Woodborne, S

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available . 2005. Climate Drives the Meningitis Epidemics Onset in West Africa. PLoS Medicine, 2: 0043-0049. TAMPLIN, M.L., GAUZENS, A.L., HUQ,A., SACK, D.A. & COLWELL, R.R. 1990. COLWELL. Attachment of Vibrio cholerae Serogroup 01 to Zooplankton...

  1. Police Brutality--the New Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Ruben; Martinez, Douglas R.

    1978-01-01

    Recently, incidents of police abuse against Hispanics have increased so rapidly that the phenomenon has been called an epidemic. Of special concern to Hispanic leaders is the lack of Federal intervention in these police brutality cases. A list of 56 documented cases involving police brutality against Hispanics is included. (Author/NQ)

  2. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  3. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  4. Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis epidemics and outbreaks of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An epidemic of acute conjunctivitis in Dar es Salaam in 2010 demonstrated the importance of a strong infectious diseases epidemiological surveillance network to minimise disease outbreaks. Misunderstanding of the causes and management of diseases explains the repetitive nature of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis ...

  5. Epidemic spastic paraparesis in Bandundu (Zaire).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carton, H; Kayembe, K; Kabeya; Odio; Billiau, A; Maertens, K

    1986-06-01

    Epidemiological findings of twenty sporadic cases of epidemic spastic paraparesis (buka-buka) in three areas of Bandundu (Zaire) are reported. These findings suggest the involvement of an infectious agent and do not support the hypothesis of a dietary cyanide intoxication, which has been advanced to explain the outbreak of a very similar disease (Mantakassa) in Mozambique.

  6. School Violence, the Media's Phanton Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, Joel

    2002-01-01

    Argues that public perceptions of an epidemic of school violence are media-induced; asserts that violence in schools declined during the 1990s; supports assertion with evidence from the National School Safety Center; states the estimates of bullying in school are exaggerated. (PKP)

  7. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  8. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  9. Data Overview: Overview of an Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Terms Prescription Opioids Heroin Fentanyl Data Opioid Data Analysis Drug Overdose Death Data Prescribing Data U.S. Prescribing Rate ... from prescription opioids. 1 Learn More Opioid Data Analysis Drug Overdose Death Data Prescribing Data U.S. Prescribing Rate ...

  10. Epidemics can be prevented with a Doctor on Call

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Epidemics can be prevented with a Doctor on Call. A potential epidemic of Chicken Pox was halted by a simple email to the right people. Instant response from the Government Doctors.

  11. The impact of Thailand's public health response to the HIV epidemic 1984-2015: understanding the ingredients of success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siraprapasiri, Taweesap; Ongwangdee, Sumet; Benjarattanaporn, Patchara; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Sharma, Mukta

    2016-11-28

    Thailand has been heralded as a global leader in HIV prevention and treatment, and its experience with the HIV/AIDS epidemic holds valuable lessons for public health. This paper documents Thailand's response to its HIV epidemic from the late 1980s until today, and analyses its epidemiological impact (incidence and mortality). We discuss the association between the trajectory of HIV incidence and mortality rates over time, and the programmatic investments, policies and interventions that were implemented in the last three decades. This is a review paper that draws on published literature, unpublished sources and routine behavioural and serological surveillance data since 1989. It is informed by the modelling of epidemiological impacts using the AIDS Epidemic Model. The AIDS Epidemic Model and Spectrum were used to assess the impact on incidence and mortality. Apart from epidemiological data, National AIDS Spending Assessment and programme data were also used to assess financial investments. Thailand is well on its way to meeting the 90-90-90 targets, the goal that by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know their HIV status, 90% of people with diagnosed HIV infection receive sustained antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) are virally suppressed. In Thailand, 89% of people living with HIV know their status, 72% receive ART and 82% have viral load testing - 99% of whom are suppressed. The public health response to HIV in Thailand has averted 5.7 million infections since 1991. If Thailand had not responded in 1991 to the HIV epidemic, and had there been no prevention and ART provision, the country would have experienced an estimated 158,000-225,000 deaths in the 2001-2006 period. This figure would have risen to 231,000-268,924 in the 2007-2014 period. A total of 196,000 deaths were averted between 2001 and 2014. If ART scale-up had not occurred in 2001, Thailand would have experienced between 50,000 and 55,000 deaths per year

  12. Incarcerating Death: Mortality in U.S. State Correctional Facilities, 1985–1998

    OpenAIRE

    PATTERSON, EVELYN J.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings ...

  13. Genetic shifts in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic clones and toxin gene profiles in Japan: comparative analysis among pre-epidemic, epidemic and post-epidemic phases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Shunsuke; Okuzumi, Katsuko; Koide, Shota; Tamai, Kiyoko; Sato, Tomoaki; Tanimoto, Koichi; Tomita, Haruyoshi; Suzuki, Masahiro; Nagano, Yukiko; Shibayama, Keigo; Arakawa, Yoshichika; Nagano, Noriyuki

    2018-03-01

    The decline in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolation rates has become a general observation worldwide, including Japan. We hypothesized that some genetic shift in MRSA might cause this phenomenon, and therefore we investigated the genetic profiles among MRSA clinical isolates obtained from three different epidemic phases in Japan. A total of 353 MRSA isolates were selected from 202 medical facilities in 1990 (pre-epidemic phase), 2004 (epidemic phase) and 2016 (post-epidemic phase). Molecular typing was performed by PCR detection of 22 genes using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based ORF typing (POT) system, including an additional eight genes including small genomic islets and seven toxin genes. Isolates with a POT1 of score 93, identified as presumed clonal complex (pCC)5-staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type II including ST5-SCCmec type II New York/Japan clone, represented the major epidemic MRSA lineage in 1990 and 2004. In 2016, however, a marked decrease in isolates with a POT1 score of 93, along with changes in the epidemiology of toxin genes carried, was noted, where the carriers of tst genes including the tst-sec combination were markedly reduced, and those possessing the seb gene alone were markedly increased. Rather, isolates with a POT1 score of 106, including pCC1 or pCC8 among the isolates with SCCmec type IV, which often links to community-associated MRSA, were predominant. Interestingly, the pCC1 and pCC8 lineages were related to sea and tst-sec carriage, respectively. Over time, a transition in MRSA genetic profiles from a POT1 score of 93 in 1990 and 2004 to 106 in 2014 was found in Japan.

  14. Reassessing the Status of Black English (Review Article).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, Arthur K.

    1992-01-01

    Summarizes the main points presented in the 1989 book, "The Death of Black English" by R.R. Butlers (1989). Butler's book presents most important research of last 20 years and subjects the results to variation analysis. It is concluded that the history of linguistic assimilation points to the eventual disappearance of Black English in…

  15. Black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, B.

    1980-01-01

    In years 1920 as a result of quantum mechanics principles governing the structure of ordinary matter, a sudden importance for a problem raised a long time ago by Laplace: what happens when a massive body becomes so dense that even light cannot escape from its gravitational field. It is difficult to conceive how could be avoided in the actual universe the accumulation of important masses of cold matter having been submitted to gravitational breaking down followed by the formation of what is called to day a black hole [fr

  16. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  17. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  18. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  19. National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-02-01

    In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.  Created: 2/1/2012 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 2/1/2012.

  20. Premature death as the ultimate failure: predictors of death in the US drug user treatment population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schildhaus, Sam; Dugoni, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Premature death is the ultimate failure in public health. Failure to complete substance user treatment increases the likelihood of death. Using the five-year follow-up (1990/91-1995/96) of a representative sample of 3,047 clients discharged from drug user treatment, this article documents that deaths after treatment were 4.7 times higher for substance user treatment clients than for the U.S. population matched by age, sex, and race; death rates ranged from 3.5 times as likely for Black males to nine times as likely for White females. Logistic regression models show that completion of treatment is associated with a three-fifths decreased likelihood of death.

  1. The Dynamical Behaviors in a Stochastic SIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifhat, Ramziya; Ge, Qing; Teng, Zhidong

    2016-01-01

    A stochastic SIS-type epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence and disease-induced mortality is investigated. It is proved that the dynamical behaviors of the model are determined by a certain threshold value [Formula: see text]. That is, when [Formula: see text] and together with an additional condition, the disease is extinct with probability one, and when [Formula: see text], the disease is permanent in the mean in probability, and when there is not disease-related death, the disease oscillates stochastically about a positive number. Furthermore, when [Formula: see text], the model admits positive recurrence and a unique stationary distribution. Particularly, the effects of the intensities of stochastic perturbation for the dynamical behaviors of the model are discussed in detail, and the dynamical behaviors for the stochastic SIS epidemic model with standard incidence are established. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the proposed open problems.

  2. Global stability of a network-based SIS epidemic model with a general nonlinear incidence rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shouying; Jiang, Jifa

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we develop and analyze an SIS epidemic model with a general nonlinear incidence rate, as well as degree-dependent birth and natural death, on heterogeneous networks. We analytically derive the epidemic threshold R0 which completely governs the disease dynamics: when R0 1, the disease is permanent. It is interesting that the threshold value R0 bears no relation to the functional form of the nonlinear incidence rate and degree-dependent birth. Furthermore, by applying an iteration scheme and the theory of cooperative system respectively, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results improve and generalize some known results. To illustrate the theoretical results, the corresponding numerical simulations are also given.

  3. To Be Young, Black and Oppressed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, Robert

    1975-01-01

    Defining the period of youth as the ages between 16 to 24 years, this article discusses the political economy of Afro-American youth oppression, the colonial educational system, crime and violence, death at an early age, and the future of black youth. (JM)

  4. Black Americans and HIV/AIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Although they represent only 12% of the U.S. population, Blacks account for a much larger share of HIV diagnoses (43%), people estimated to be living with HIV disease (43%), and deaths among people with HIV (44%) than any other ...

  5. Making Blackness, Making Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Geller, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Too often the acknowledgment that race is a social construction ignores exactly how this construction occurs. By illuminating the way in which the category of blackness and black individuals are made, we can better see how race matters in America. Antidiscrimination policy, social science research, and the state's support of its citizens can all be improved by an accurate and concrete definition of blackness. Making Blackness, Making Policy argues that blackness and black people are literally...

  6. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  7. 20 CFR 410.450 - Death due to pneumoconiosis, including statutory presumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Death due to pneumoconiosis, including... COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.450 Death due to pneumoconiosis, including statutory presumption...

  8. 20 CFR 410.471 - Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... disability or death. 410.471 Section 410.471 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.471 Conclusion by physician regarding miner's disability or death. The...

  9. 20 CFR 410.458 - Irrebuttable presumption of death due to pneumoconiosis-survivor's claim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Irrebuttable presumption of death due to... FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Total Disability or Death Due to Pneumoconiosis § 410.458 Irrebuttable presumption of death due to pneumoconiosis—survivor's...

  10. The Evolution of the Epidemic of Charcoal-Burning Suicide in Taiwan: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Gunnell, David; Wheeler, Benedict W.; Yip, Paul; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

    2010-01-01

    Background An epidemic of carbon monoxide poisoning suicide by burning barbecue charcoal has occurred in East Asia in the last decade. We investigated the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic to assess its impact on the epidemiology of suicide in Taiwan. Methods and Findings Age-standardised rates of suicide and undetermined death by charcoal burning were mapped across townships (median population aged 15 y or over = 27,000) in Taiwan for the periods 1999–2001, 2002–2004, and 2005–2007. Smoothed standardised mortality ratios of charcoal-burning and non-charcoal-burning suicide and undetermined death across townships were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Trends in overall and method-specific rates were compared between urban and rural areas for the period 1991–2007. The epidemic of charcoal-burning suicide in Taiwan emerged more prominently in urban than rural areas, without a single point of origin, and rates of charcoal-burning suicide remained highest in the metropolitan regions throughout the epidemic. The rural excess in overall suicide rates prior to 1998 diminished as rates of charcoal-burning suicide increased to a greater extent in urban than rural areas. Conclusions The charcoal-burning epidemic has altered the geography of suicide in Taiwan. The observed pattern and its changes in the past decade suggest that widespread media coverage of this suicide method and easy access to barbecue charcoal may have contributed to the epidemic. Prevention strategies targeted at these factors, such as introducing and enforcing guidelines on media reporting and restricting access to charcoal, may help tackle the increase of charcoal-burning suicides. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20052273

  11. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  12. Black hole critical phenomena without black holes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Black holes; numerical relativity; nonlinear sigma. Abstract. Studying the threshold of black hole formation via numerical evolution has led to the discovery of fascinating nonlinear phenomena. ... Theoretical and Computational Studies Group, Southampton College, Long Island University, Southampton, NY 11968, USA ...

  13. Epidemic of charcoal burning suicide in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshioka, Eiji; Hanley, Sharon J B; Kawanishi, Yasuyuki; Saijo, Yasuaki

    2014-01-01

    The charcoal burning suicide epidemics in both Hong Kong and Taiwan have been well documented. However, little is known about the situation in Japan. To examine the impact of charcoal burning suicide on the overall and other method-specific suicide rates between 1998 and 2007 in Japan. Using data obtained from the Vital Statistics of Japan, negative binomial regression analyses were performed to investigate the impact of the charcoal burning method. In males and females aged 15-24 and 25-44 years, the charcoal burning epidemic led to a substantial increase in overall suicides, without a decrease in other methods. In all other age groups, no such trend was observed. In young Japanese, the charcoal burning method may have appealed to individuals who might not have chosen other highly or relatively lethal methods, and consequently led to an increase in overall suicides.

  14. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  15. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  16. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  17. Black Urine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahim Vakili

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A 2-year-old boy was born at term of healthy, non-consanguineous Iranian parents. His mother attended in the clinic with the history of sometimes discoloration of diapers after passing urine. She noticed that first at the age of one month with intensified in recent months. His Physical examination and growth parameters were normal. His mother denied taking any medication (sorbitol, nitrofurantoin, metronidazole, methocarbamol, sena and methyldopa (5. Qualitative urine examination showed dark black discoloration. By this history, alkaptonuria was the most clinical suspicious. A 24-hour-urine sample was collected and sent for quantitative measurements. The urine sample was highly positive for homogentisic acid and negative for porphyrin metabolites.

  18. The black Arab as a substitution for sin and guilt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Radmilo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The figure of the Black Arab as a form of guilt and sin is a well-established memorial pattern throughout the Mediterranean world, having already existed for more than 3000 years. This text is focused on two different types of interpretation of the Black Stone and its semantic relation with the symbolized figure of Black Arab in the oral traditions of Mediterranean peoples - Jewish religion and Islamic eschatology. The transformation of the signification of the Black Stone was transferred to the Islamic religion in the act of pilgrimage. The Jewish practice of transferring sin and guilt is related with the Iranian-Manichean Ahura Mazda-Ahriman, and the ancient Greek goddess Hecate. All manifestations of the Black Arab left a deep trace on Slavic spiritual life through the Slavic gods Chernobog, Triglav and Toyan and consequently on the deeply rooted conception of all Slavic peoples that the Black Arab was a black demon of death and the underworld.

  19. The epidemiology and socio-economic impact of Rift Valley fever epidemics in Tanzania: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calvin Sindato

    2012-06-01

    economic losses to the populations who were totally dependent upon this income. Livestock internal market flows drastically dropped by 37% during latest epidemic. Rift Valley fever epidemics had dramatic impact of RVF outbreak on the international animal trade in which there was a 54% decline in exports equivalent to loss of $352 750.00. The estimate of loss as a result of deaths for cattle was $4 243 250.00 whereas that of goats and sheep was $2 202 467.00. Steps taken to combat epidemics included restriction of animal movements, ban of the slaughter of cattle and vaccination of livestock and health education. From past epidemics we have learnt that each subsequent outbreak had expanded to cover wider areas of the country. The disease had dramatic socio-economic impacts both at community and nation at large. The main challenges related to the control of RVF outbreaks included lack of preparedness plan for RVF, poor coordination and information transmission, limited facilities and manpower for RVF outbreak intervention. Control of the 2007 RVF epidemic was largely the result of animal and human health agencies working in an integrated manner.

  20. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  2. The glue ear 'epidemic': a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderson, David

    2011-12-01

    This paper explores the historical context of the dramatic rise in surgery for glue ear in the mid-20th century, and questions the published assertion that this represented a manufactured 'epidemic'. In examining historical sources, the reader's theoretical viewpoint greatly influences their conclusions: the sustained rise in treatment for glue ear may be seen as the advance of science in a golden age or the resistance of insular professionals to reason in the light of new scientific study methods. Current views on the practice of medicine, consumerism, science and standardisation, rationing and the nature of 'truth' all affect the way that we see this period. Technological advances clearly allowed better diagnosis and more effective treatment, but these did not appear to drive an 'epidemic', rather they were developed to meet the pre-existing challenges of otological practice. The proposition that an 'epidemic' was created does not appear to have any solid grounding. Society's perception of what constitutes disease and what needs treatment may have evolved, but the prevalence of other important diseases changed dramatically over this time period, and a real change in the epidemiology of glue ear cannot be dismissed. In defining the case for and against surgical treatment, a solely positivist, quantitative worldview cannot give us a complete picture of benefit and risk to individuals, families and society at large.

  3. Disseminated cryptococcosis and sudden death. Report of an autopsy case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappi, E; Zappi, M; Zugibe, F T

    1995-03-01

    We report a case of sudden death due to terminal cryptococcal pneumonia in a patient not suspected to have AIDS. The correct diagnosis was found only by microscopic examination and serologic workup, illustrating the hazards faced by forensic pathologists and their assistants working without adequate information about the bodies under study. This case illustrates the need for the highest levels of caution and compliance with universal precautionary measures during autopsy procedures in the present days of the AIDS epidemic.

  4. Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedian, M.; Khalighi, M.; Azimi-Tafreshi, N.; Jafari, G. R.; Ausloos, M.

    2017-02-01

    Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by a non-Markovian dynamics: memory effects play an essential role in the spreading of diseases. Including memory effects in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model seems very appropriate for such an investigation. Thus, the memory prone SIR model dynamics is investigated using fractional derivatives. The decay of long-range memory, taken as a power-law function, is directly controlled by the order of the fractional derivatives in the corresponding nonlinear fractional differential evolution equations. Here we assume "fully mixed" approximation and show that the epidemic threshold is shifted to higher values than those for the memoryless system, depending on this memory "length" decay exponent. We also consider the SIR model on structured networks and study the effect of topology on threshold points in a non-Markovian dynamics. Furthermore, the lack of access to the precise information about the initial conditions or the past events plays a very relevant role in the correct estimation or prediction of the epidemic evolution. Such a "constraint" is analyzed and discussed.

  5. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  6. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  7. The opioid epidemic is an historic opportunity to improve both prevention and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuPont, Robert L

    2018-04-01

    The current narrative describing the national opioid epidemic as the result of overprescribing opioid pain medicines fails to capture the full dimensions of the problem and leads to inadequate and even confounding solutions. Overlooked is the fact that polysubstance use is nearly ubiquitous among overdose deaths, demonstrating that the opioid overdose death problem is bigger than opioids. The foundation of the nation's opioid overdose crisis - and the totality of the nation's drug epidemic - is widespread recreational pharmacology, the use of drugs for fun or "self-medication." The national focus on opioid overdose deaths provides important new opportunities in both prevention and treatment to make fundamental changes to the way that substance use disorders and related problems are understood and managed. The first-ever US Surgeon General's report on addiction provides a starting point for systemic changes in the nation's approach to preventing, treating and managing substance use disorders as serious, chronic diseases. New prevention efforts need to encourage youth to grow to adulthood not using alcohol, nicotine, marijuana or other drugs for reasons of health. New addiction treatment efforts need to focus on achieving long-term recovery including no use of alcohol, marijuana and other drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling Post-death Transmission of Ebola: Challenges for Inference and Opportunities for Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Joshua S.; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-03-01

    Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one component of Ebola dynamics that is of ongoing concern - the transmission of Ebola from the dead to the living. We do so by applying the toolkit of mathematical epidemiology to analyze the consequences of post-death transmission. We show that underlying disease parameters cannot be inferred with confidence from early-stage incidence data (that is, they are not ``identifiable'') because different parameter combinations can produce virtually the same epidemic trajectory. Despite this identifiability problem, we find robustly that inferences that don't account for post-death transmission tend to underestimate the basic reproductive number - thus, given the observed rate of epidemic growth, larger amounts of post-death transmission imply larger reproductive numbers. From a control perspective, we explain how improvements in reducing post-death transmission of Ebola may reduce the overall epidemic spread and scope substantially. Increased attention to the proportion of post-death transmission has the potential to aid both in projecting the course of the epidemic and in evaluating a portfolio of control strategies.

  9. Causes of death among stillbirths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-14

    Stillbirth affects 1 in 160 pregnancies in the United States, equal to the number of infant deaths each year. Rates are higher than those of other developed countries and have stagnated over the past decade. There is significant racial disparity in the rate of stillbirth that is unexplained. To ascertain the causes of stillbirth in a population that is diverse by race/ethnicity and geography. A population-based study from March 2006 to September 2008 with surveillance for all stillbirths at 20 weeks or later in 59 tertiary care and community hospitals in 5 catchment areas defined by state and county boundaries to ensure access to at least 90% of all deliveries. Termination of a live fetus was excluded. Standardized evaluations were performed at delivery. Medical history, fetal postmortem and placental pathology, karyotype, other laboratory tests, systematic assignment of causes of death. Of 663 women with stillbirth enrolled, 500 women consented to complete postmortem examinations of 512 neonates. A probable cause of death was found in 312 stillbirths (60.9%; 95% CI, 56.5%-65.2%) and possible or probable cause in 390 (76.2%; 95% CI, 72.2%-79.8%). The most common causes were obstetric conditions (150 [29.3%; 95% CI, 25.4%-33.5%]), placental abnormalities (121 [23.6%; 95% CI, 20.1%-27.6%]), fetal genetic/structural abnormalities (70 [13.7%; 95% CI, 10.9%-17.0%]), infection (66 [12.9%; 95% CI, 10.2%-16.2%]), umbilical cord abnormalities (53 [10.4%; 95% CI, 7.9%-13.4%]), hypertensive disorders (47 [9.2%; 95% CI, 6.9%-12.1%]), and other maternal medical conditions (40 [7.8%; 95% CI, 5.7%-10.6%]). A higher proportion of stillbirths in non-Hispanic black women compared with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic ones was associated with obstetric complications (43.5% [50] vs 23.7% [85]; difference, 19.8%; 95% CI, 9.7%-29.9%; P black women. Sources most likely to provide positive information regarding cause of death were placental histology (268 [52.3%; 95% CI, 47

  10. Black Silicon Solar Cells with Black Ribbons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Rasmus Schmidt; Tang, Peter Torben; Mizushima, Io

    2016-01-01

    We present the combination of mask-less reactive ion etch (RIE) texturing and blackened interconnecting ribbons as a method for obtaining all-black solar panels, while using conventional, front-contacted solar cells. Black silicon made by mask-less reactive ion etching has total, average...... reflectance below 0.5% across a 156x156 mm2 silicon (Si) wafer. Black interconnecting ribbons were realized by oxidizing copper resulting in reflectance below 3% in the visible wavelength range. Screen-printed Si solar cells were realized on 156x156 mm2 black Si substrates with resulting efficiencies...... in the range 15.7-16.3%. The KOH-textured reference cell had an efficiency of 17.9%. The combination of black Si and black interconnecting ribbons may result in aesthetic, all-black panels based on conventional, front-contacted silicon solar cells....

  11. Black Silicon Solar Cells with Black Ribbons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Rasmus Schmidt; Tang, Peter Torben; Mizushima, Io

    2016-01-01

    We present the combination of mask-less reactive ion etch (RIE) texturing and blackened interconnecting ribbons as a method for obtaining all-black solar panels, while using conventional, front-contacted solar cells. Black silicon made by mask-less reactive ion etching has total, average...... in the range 15.7-16.3%. The KOH-textured reference cell had an efficiency of 17.9%. The combination of black Si and black interconnecting ribbons may result in aesthetic, all-black panels based on conventional, front-contacted silicon solar cells....... reflectance below 0.5% across a 156x156 mm2 silicon (Si) wafer. Black interconnecting ribbons were realized by oxidizing copper resulting in reflectance below 3% in the visible wavelength range. Screen-printed Si solar cells were realized on 156x156 mm2 black Si substrates with resulting efficiencies...

  12. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  13. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  14. Black holes. Chapter 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, R.

    1980-01-01

    Conditions for the formation of a black hole are considered, and the properties of black holes. The possibility of Cygnus X-1 as a black hole is discussed. Einstein's theory of general relativity in relation to the formation of black holes is discussed. (U.K.)

  15. Black Eye: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Black eye Black eye: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff A black eye is caused by bleeding under the skin around the eye. Most injuries that cause a ... 13, 2018 Original article: http://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-black-eye/basics/ART-20056675 . Mayo ...

  16. National Death Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Death Index (NDI) is a centralized database of death record information on file in state vital statistics offices. Working with these state offices, the...

  17. God's dominion over death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulling, Sharon

    2012-01-01

    This article briefly overviews the criteria for and physiological process of death, contrasting physical death with biblical passages revealing how God interceded in this universal process when Jesus was on earth.

  18. Search for black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherepashchuk, Anatolii M

    2003-01-01

    Methods and results of searching for stellar mass black holes in binary systems and for supermassive black holes in galactic nuclei of different types are described. As of now (June 2002), a total of 100 black hole candidates are known. All the necessary conditions Einstein's General Relativity imposes on the observational properties of black holes are satisfied for candidate objects available, thus further assuring the existence of black holes in the Universe. Prospects for obtaining sufficient criteria for reliably distinguishing candidate black holes from real black holes are discussed. (reviews of topical problems)

  19. [Fetal death in utero].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudigoz, R C; Revillard, J P; Audra, P; Luciani, F; Malvolti, B; Griot, J P; Frappart, L; Lafont, S

    1986-11-01

    152 cases of fetal death in utero are reported. The most frequent etiologies were: vasculorenal syndromes: 28.3 p. cent, idiopathic DPPNIs and RCIUs: 28 p. cent, accidental causes (trauma, funicular syndromes): 19.5 p. cent. Cause of death was unknown or imprecise in 18.4 p. cent of cases. Repeated fetal deaths in utero were rare: 5 observations. The authors consider the management of fetal death in utero, associated immunological problems and how to deal with subsequent pregnancies.

  20. Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

    2017-01-01

    In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

  1. An epidemic process mediated by a decaying diffusing signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Fernando P.; Dickman, Ronald

    2012-06-01

    We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ('signals') emitted by infected individuals. The signals decay as well as diffuse; since they are assumed to be produced in large numbers, the signal concentration is treated deterministically. The model, which includes four cellular states (susceptible, transformed, depleted, and removed), admits various interpretations: spread of an infection or infectious disease, or of damage in a tissue in which injured cells may themselves provoke further damage, and as a description of the so-called radiation-induced bystander effect, in which the signals are molecules capable of inducing cell damage and/or death in unirradiated cells. The model exhibits a continuous phase transition between spreading and nonspreading phases. We formulate two mean-field theory (MFT) descriptions of the model, one of which ignores correlations between the cellular state and the signal concentration, and another that treats such correlations in an approximate manner. Monte Carlo simulations of the spread of infection on the square lattice yield values for the critical exponents and the fractal dimension consistent with the dynamic percolation universality class.

  2. Sudden death victims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceelen, Manon; van der Werf, Christian; Hendrix, Anneke; Naujocks, Tatjana; Woonink, Frits; de Vries, Philip; van der Wal, Allard; Das, Kees

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this study was to ascertain accordance between cause of death established by the forensic physician and autopsy results in young sudden death victims in the Netherlands. Sudden death victims aged 1-45 years examined by forensic physicians operating in the participating regions which also

  3. Separation, Part I: Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Anne Devereaux

    1997-01-01

    Contends literature is the one place where death still abides, where grief is felt and consolation can be sought. States that young readers can gain a recognition in books that death is natural. Discusses death in folk and fairy tales, in 17th-century didactic children's books and in modern and contemporary literature. Outlines characteristics of…

  4. Same Disease—different research strategies: Bananas and Black Sigatoka in Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cordoba, D.M.; Jansen, K.

    2014-01-01

    Fungal disease epidemics have the potential to bring about drastic innovations. However, in the case of the Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) fungus in bananas, producers and international traders are still awaiting a breakthrough in crop protection research. Using the cases of Brazil and

  5. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  6. Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roberts, Mick G; Andreasen, Viggo; Lloyd, Alun

    2015-01-01

    Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections......, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where superinfection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern...

  7. Eyelid closure at death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A D Macleod

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To observe the incidence of full or partial eyelid closure at death. Materials and Methods: The presence of ptosis was recorded in 100 consecutive hospice patient deaths. Results: Majority (63% of the patients died with their eyes fully closed, however, 37% had bilateral ptosis at death, with incomplete eye closure. In this study, central nervous system tumor involvement and/or acute hepatic encephalopathy appeared to be pre-mortem risk factors of bilateral ptosis at death. Conclusion: Organicity and not psychogenicity is, therefore, the likely etiology of failure of full eyelid closure at death.

  8. Heart Disease Death Rates in Low Versus High Land Elevation Counties in the U.S

    OpenAIRE

    Hart, John

    2015-01-01

    Previous research on land elevation and cancer death rates in the U.S. revealed lower cancer death rates in higher elevations. The present study further tests the possible effect of land elevation on a diffident health outcome, namely, heart disease death rates. U.S. counties not overlapping in their land elevations according to their lowest and highest elevation points were identified. Using an ecological design, heart disease death rates for two races (black and white) corresponding to lowe...

  9. Optimal allocation of the limited oral cholera vaccine supply between endemic and epidemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Lessler, Justin

    2015-10-06

    The World Health Organization (WHO) recently established a global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to be preferentially used in epidemic response (reactive campaigns) with any vaccine remaining after 1 year allocated to endemic settings. Hence, the number of cholera cases or deaths prevented in an endemic setting represents the minimum utility of these doses, and the optimal risk-averse response to any reactive vaccination request (i.e. the minimax strategy) is one that allocates the remaining doses between the requested epidemic response and endemic use in order to ensure that at least this minimum utility is achieved. Using mathematical models, we find that the best minimax strategy is to allocate the majority of doses to reactive campaigns, unless the request came late in the targeted epidemic. As vaccine supplies dwindle, the case for reactive use of the remaining doses grows stronger. Our analysis provides a lower bound for the amount of OCV to keep in reserve when responding to any request. These results provide a strategic context for the fulfilment of requests to the stockpile, and define allocation strategies that minimize the number of OCV doses that are allocated to suboptimal situations. © 2015 The Authors.

  10. Fatal outbreaks of jaundice in pregnancy and the epidemic history of hepatitis E.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, C-G

    2012-05-01

    Space-time clustering of people who fall acutely ill with jaundice, then slip into coma and death, is an alarming phenomenon, more markedly so when the victims are mostly or exclusively pregnant. Documentation of the peculiar, fatal predisposition of pregnant women during outbreaks of jaundice identifies hepatitis E and enables construction of its epidemic history. Between the last decade of the 18th century and the early decades of the 20th century, hepatitis E-like outbreaks were reported mainly from Western Europe and several of its colonies. During the latter half of the 20th century, reports of these epidemics, including those that became serologically confirmed as hepatitis E, emanated from, first, the eastern and southern Mediterranean littoral and, thereafter, Southern and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the rest of Africa. The dispersal has been accompanied by a trend towards more frequent and larger-scale occurrences. Epidemic and endemic hepatitis E still beset people inhabiting Asia and Africa, especially pregnant women and their fetuses and infants. Their relief necessitates not only accelerated access to potable water and sanitation but also vaccination against hepatitis E.

  11. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  12. George S. Schuyer's "Black No More"--The Black Conservative's Socialist Past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrich, Maria

    1988-01-01

    George S. Schuyler, an outspoken reactionary conservative from the 1940s until his death in 1977, was an active member of the Socialist Party of America in the 1920s and 1930s. Examination of his novel, "Black No More" (1931) demonstrates his early Marxist leanings. (BJV)

  13. Behavioral synchronization induced by epidemic spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Lou, Yijun; Duan, Jinqiao; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-06-01

    During the spread of an epidemic, individuals in realistic networks may exhibit collective behaviors. In order to characterize this kind of phenomenon and explore the correlation between collective behaviors and epidemic spread, in this paper, we construct several mathematical models (including without delay, with a coupling delay, and with double delays) of epidemic synchronization by applying the adaptive feedback motivated by real observations. By using Lyapunov function methods, we obtain the conditions for local and global stability of these epidemic synchronization models. Then, we illustrate that quenched mean-field theory is more accurate than heterogeneous mean-field theory in the prediction of epidemic synchronization. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to complement our theoretical results, which also reveal some unexpected phenomena, for example, the coupling delay and epidemic delay influence the speed of epidemic synchronization. This work makes further exploration on the relationship between epidemic dynamics and synchronization dynamics, in the hope of being helpful to the study of other dynamical phenomena in the process of epidemic spread.

  14. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  15. Brane world black rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahay, Anurag; Sengupta, Gautam

    2007-01-01

    Five dimensional neutral rotating black rings are described from a Randall-Sundrum brane world perspective in the bulk black string framework. To this end we consider a rotating black string extension of a five dimensional black ring into the bulk of a six dimensional Randall-Sundrum brane world with a single four brane. The bulk solution intercepts the four brane in a five dimensional black ring with the usual curvature singularity on the brane. The bulk geodesics restricted to the plane of rotation of the black ring are constructed and their projections on the four brane match with the usual black ring geodesics restricted to the same plane. The asymptotic nature of the bulk geodesics are elucidated with reference to a bulk singularity at the AdS horizon. We further discuss the description of a brane world black ring as a limit of a boosted bulk black 2 brane with periodic identification

  16. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  17. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  18. [The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Cambodia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soda, K; Morio, S; Tajima, K; Kitamura, K; Toba, M; Ito, A; Kihara, M; Ichikawa, S; Imai, M; Mizushima, S; Ohshige, K

    1997-05-01

    In December 1995 and March 1996, we visited institutes which were conducting epidemiological studied of HIV/AIDS in Cambodia, and obtained data for further collaborative study between Japan and Cambodia. Data included information on AIDS patients and HIV infected persons, and behavioral epidemiology of CSWs (Commercial Sex Workers). The cumulative reported number of AIDS patients and HIV infected persons in Cambodia was 86 and 2,536 cases respectively in 1995. The cause of infection was mostly heterosexual contact with very few cases from injecting drug use (IDU) and other causes. The seroprevalence rate of HIV antibody among donated blood rapidly increased from 0.08% in 1991 to 4.47% in 1995, and those among CSWs and pregnant women were 37.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in 1995. The average rate of condom use among CSWs was 66%, but the rate of usual usage was only 14%. These results indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic had spread rapidly through CSWs, that it had been spread among peoples in communities, and that usage of condoms among CSWs was insufficient in Cambodia. Without strong countermeasures against HIV/AIDS in this country, HIV/AIDS epidemic may spread significantly to not only peoples in this country but also those in neighbouring countries in the future.

  19. [Epidemic process of gonorrhea in modern world].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostiukova, N N; Bekhalo, V A

    2009-01-01

    Gonorrhea in spite of its fully elucidated etiopathogenesis and available drugs for etiotropic therapy belongs to infections which are not controlled by vaccination due to absence of immunity formation. Analysis of scientific publication, statistical materials and WHO's data showed that epidemic process of gonorrhea infection depends mainly from people's behaviour, first of all, sexual. Modern epidemic process of gonorrhea infection consists from irregular increases and decreases of incidence due to various reasons. Reasons for increases of incidence appear to be simultaneous action of a range of biologic and anthropogenic factors. First reason--rapid increase of resistance of gonococci to widely used antibacterial preparations as well as synergy of pathogenic effects between HIV and gonococci; anthropogenic--wars, increase of high-risk groups due to urbanization, use of oral contraceptives, rise of prostitution, migration, inadequate access to medical care, poverty, intensification of intercourses (including hetero- and homosexual) between people, as well as demographic changes--increase of proportion of young people in population structure. Same but reciprocal factors lead to decrease of morbidity. Of them, the following were considered as most important: mass implementation of new effective antimicrobial drug as well as intensification of sanitary education, availability of early diagnostics and treatment, increase of material and cultural standards of life, decrease in number of persons belonging to high risk groups. Yet, capabilities of modern science expressed only in continuous development of new antibacterial drugs active against circulating population of gonococci, which is resistant to previously used drug.

  20. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  1. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  2. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  3. From Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa to the Meningitis Vaccine Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguado, M Teresa; Jodar, Luis; Granoff, Dan; Rabinovich, Regina; Ceccarini, Costante; Perkin, Gordon W

    2015-11-15

    Polysaccharide vaccines had been used to control African meningitis epidemics for >30 years but with little or modest success, largely because of logistical problems in the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns that are begun after epidemics are under way. After the major group A meningococcal meningitis epidemics in 1996-1997 (250,000 cases and 25,000 deaths), African ministers of health declared the prevention of meningitis a high priority and asked the World Health Organization (WHO) for help in developing better immunization strategies to eliminate meningitis epidemics in Africa. WHO accepted the challenge and created a project called Epidemic Meningitis Vaccines for Africa (EVA) that served as an organizational framework for external consultants, PATH, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). Consultations were initiated with major vaccine manufacturers. EVA commissioned a costing study/business plan for the development of new group A or A/C conjugate vaccines and explored the feasibility of developing these products as a public-private partnership. Representatives from African countries were consulted. They confirmed that the development of conjugate vaccines was a priority and provided information on preferred product characteristics. In parallel, a strategy for successful introduction was also anticipated and discussed. The expert consultations recommended that a group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine be developed and introduced into the African meningitis belt. The results of the costing study indicated that the "cost of goods" to develop a group A - containing conjugate vaccine in the United States would be in the range of US$0.35-$1.35 per dose, depending on composition (A vs A/C), number of doses/vials, and presentation. Following an invitation from BMGF, a proposal was submitted in the spring of 2001. In June 2001, BMGF awarded a grant of US$70 million to create the Meningitis

  4. HIV/AIDS and pregnancy-related deaths in Blantyre, Malawi | Lema ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: HIV/AIDS epidemic is one of the major factors affecting women's health and impeding national efforts to improve it especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current evidence indicates that HIV/ AIDS is increasingly becoming a major cause or contributing factor to pregnancy-related deaths, almost overtaking the ...

  5. Analysis of populations of the sudden oak death pathogen in Oregon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhian N. Kamvar; Everett M. Hansen; Alan M. Kanaskie; Meredith M. Larsen; Niklaus J. Grünwald

    2017-01-01

    Sudden oak death, caused by the oomycete Phytophthora ramorum, was first discovered in California toward the end of the 20th century and subsequently emerged on tanoak forests in Oregon before its first detection in 2001 by aerial surveys. The Oregon Department of Forestry has since monitored the epidemic and sampled symptomatic tanoak trees from...

  6. Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

    2016-07-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Angioedema deaths in the United States, 1979-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Susan J; Brooks, Jordan C; Sheikh, Javed; Kaplan, Michael S; Goldberg, Bruce J

    2014-12-01

    Hospital admission data indicate that the angioedema incidence has increased during the past several decades. Little is known about mortality trends. To count the number of deaths associated with angioedema in the United States, investigate correlations with age, sex, race, and other contributory causes, and analyze trends from 1979 to 2010. All US death certificates in which angioedema was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death during 1979 to 2010 were analyzed. Age-adjusted mortality rates were analyzed by age, sex, and race. Other conditions designated as the underlying cause of death were investigated. From 1979 to 2010, there were 5,758 deaths in which angioedema was listed as a contributing cause. The age-adjusted death rate for hereditary angioedema decreased from 0.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.32) to 0.06 (95% CI 0.05-0.08) per million persons per year. Conversely, mortality for angioedema increased from 0.24 (95% CI 0.21-0.27) to 0.34 (95% CI 0.31-0.37) per million. Blacks constituted 55% of angioedema deaths that were associated with use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. On death certificates that listed hereditary angioedema as the underlying cause of death, cancer (frequently lymphoma or leukemia) was the second most commonly listed cause. Angioedema-associated deaths were very rare from 1979 to 2010. Hereditary angioedema deaths became even more so, whereas nonhereditary angioedema deaths increased. Risks associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were higher in blacks. Lack of specific coding for acquired angioedema most likely explains the observed association between cancer and hereditary angioedema. In the future, more granular coding systems may help distinguish hereditary from acquired angioedema. Copyright © 2014 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. [The "Black Death" : Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemer, Dorothea

    2015-07-01

    The Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne viral disease that has been known for centuries. In the last years more frequent cases reflect the effects of climate change, globalization and the increasing encroachment of humans into previously unexploited areas. Humans acquire the infection by tick bites or through the slaughtering and processing of infected animals. The course of the disease can be severe and the average mortality reaches up to 30 %. It is transmissible from human to human and there is no causal treatment. Thus, CCHF meets the criteria for a highly contagious life-threatening disease. In the following current data on the virus, its vector, the distribution and transmission will be presented, as well as information on the diagnosis, the disease, the underlying pathophysiology and consequences in dealing with patients and deceased.

  9. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, L. van; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, C. van den; Verheij, R.; Vliet, H. van; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.; Pelt, W. van; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  10. Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, van L.; Siebenga, J.; Wijngaard, van den C.; Verheij, R.; Vliet, van H.; Kretzschmar, M.; Boshuizen, H.C.; Pelt, van W.; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: New variant strains of norovirus have emerged worldwide in recent years, evolving by mutation much like influenza viruses. These strains have been associated with a notable increase in the number of annual norovirus outbreaks. However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on

  11. Programmed cell death: Superman meets Dr Death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Pascal; Silke, John

    2003-12-01

    This year's Cold Spring Harbor meeting on programmed cell death (September 17-21, 2003), organised by Craig Thompson and Junying Yuan, was proof that the 'golden age' of research in this field is far from over. There was a flurry of fascinating insights into the regulation of diverse apoptotic pathways and unexpected non-apoptotic roles for some of the key apoptotic regulators and effectors. In addition to their role in cell death, components of the apoptotic molecular machinery are now known to also function in a variety of essential cellular processes, such as regulating glucose homeostasis, lipid metabolism, cell proliferation and differentiation.

  12. Three days in October of 1630: detailed examination of mortality during an early modern plague epidemic in Venice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ell, S R

    1989-01-01

    The epidemiology of medieval and early modern European plague remains highly controversial. It now seems likely that the epidemiology was not uniform throughout either the geographic or temporal boundaries of the plague in Western Europe. The Venetian plague of 1630 was extensively documented; day-by-day records were kept, and each mortality in the city was recorded in a set format. The days 23-25 October 1630, representing a period when mortality was beginning to increase sharply, are examined. In all, 1,163 deaths were recorded. They show a large preponderance of women; a mean age of 28, but a majority of cases clumped between ages 0 and 25 years; and an unequal sex ratio among children. Further, there was an identifiable smallpox epidemic raging simultaneously with plague, and more than one-quarter of all the deaths in this period of high mortality were clearly due to nonplague causes. Deaths due to wounds and associated with violence were prominent in one parish, which suggests that in times of plague the breakdown in the normal machinery of government, in everyday patterns of life, and possibly of mental well being resulted in an even more exaggerated death toll. These factors--violence, accidents, and other epidemics--have never been so definitively tied to a European plague epidemic. In addition, there are hints that plague has a marked proclivity to kill pregnant women--their deaths far outnumber those anticipated--and that plague was very localized at a given moment within Venice itself, even during times of peak mortality.

  13. Existential Concerns About Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2015-01-01

    patients in Danish hospices. The main findings demonstrated how the patients faced the forthcoming death without being anxious of death but sorrowful about leaving life. Furthermore, patients expressed that they avoided thinking about death. However, some had reconstructed specific and positive ideas about...... psychology or Kübler-Ross’ theory about death stages. The complex concerns might be explained using Martin Heidegger’s phenomenological thinking. We aimed to illuminate dying patients´ existential concerns about the impending death through a descriptive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 17 cancer...... afterlife and made accurate decisions for practical aspects of their death. The patients wished to focus on positive aspects in their daily life at hospice. It hereby seems important to have ongoing reflections and to include different theoretical perspectives when providing existential support to dying...

  14. [Measles epidemic in a highly developed country: low mortality, high morbidity and extensive costs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donas, A; Marty-Nussbaumer, A; Roost, H-P; Neuhaus, T J

    2014-01-01

    Vaccination with 2 doses of > 95% of the population is necessary to eliminate measles. In Switzerland and especially in the central part, vaccine coverage is low (2006: 65%). This led 2006-2009 to a measles epidemic with thousands of cases and high costs. One death was noted in a formerly healthy 12 year old girl. All measles cases, either hospitalized or reported to the authority, in the canton Lucerne between 2006 and 2009 were included. Course, complications, immunization rates and costs of the hospitalized children were analyzed. A total of 1 041 cases of measles were recorded; 758 (73%) were children complications were pneumonia with oxygen requirement (n=19), bacterial infections of the base of the skull (n=2) and acute measles encephalitis (n=3). One child each developed acute appendicitis and diabetes mellitus type 1. No death was noted. Median hospitalisation costs were 18 780 CHF. The surveillance system was incomplete: Every third admitted child was not reported to the authority. Due to low vaccine coverage measles still account for epidemics with high morbidity and extensive costs. Instant reporting of all cases is crucial for disease control. Early identification of persons at risk allows timely immunization. Switzerland will remain of central importance to eliminate measles in Europe by 2015. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. Black hole hair removal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Nabamita; Mandal, Ipsita; Sen, Ashoke

    2009-01-01

    Macroscopic entropy of an extremal black hole is expected to be determined completely by its near horizon geometry. Thus two black holes with identical near horizon geometries should have identical macroscopic entropy, and the expected equality between macroscopic and microscopic entropies will then imply that they have identical degeneracies of microstates. An apparent counterexample is provided by the 4D-5D lift relating BMPV black hole to a four dimensional black hole. The two black holes have identical near horizon geometries but different microscopic spectrum. We suggest that this discrepancy can be accounted for by black hole hair - degrees of freedom living outside the horizon and contributing to the degeneracies. We identify these degrees of freedom for both the four and the five dimensional black holes and show that after their contributions are removed from the microscopic degeneracies of the respective systems, the result for the four and five dimensional black holes match exactly.

  16. The Black Studies Boondoggle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Richard A.

    1970-01-01

    Indicates tendencies dangerous to the basic purpose of Black Studies, and identifies four external challeges--imperialism, paternalism, nihilism, and materialism. An internal challenge is considered to be the use of European and Establishment constructs to analyze black reality. (DM)

  17. Black-Body Radiation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Black-body radiation; thermal radiation; heat; electromagnetic radiation; Stefan's Law; Stefan–Boltzmann Law; Wien's Law; Rayleigh–Jeans Law; black-body spectrum; ultraviolet catastrophe; zero point energy; photon.

  18. Cholera in Thomas Mann's Death in Venice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rütten, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    The article sets the cholera motif in Thomas Mann's famous novella Death in Venice against the historical context from which it partially originates. It is shown that this motif, while undoubtedly appropriated to serve Mann's own poetic ends, has a solid grounding in historical and autobiographical fact, thus blurring the boundaries between fact and fiction. The article illustrates the verifiable events of the outbreak of the Venetian cholera epidemic in May 1911, which Mann partly witnessed himself, during a holiday trip to Brioni and Venice, and partly heard and read about. It is established that Thomas Mann's account of the cholera in Venice in his novella is characterised by a rare and almost preternatural insightfulness into an otherwise murky affair that was marked by rumours, speculations and denials.

  19. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  20. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures among men who have sex with men in South Africa: an overview. ... These factors are discussed in this paper with stress put particularly on the hiddenness of the MSM HIV epidemic, and it is concluded that the complex mix of factors ...

  1. Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in children at Federal Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Epidemic meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem still affecting tropical countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, which lies within African meningitis belt. Repeated large scale epidemics of CSM have been reported in northern Nigeria for the past four decades. It is one of the important causes of ...

  2. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  3. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  4. An information strategy for the epidemic control chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, T.; Dijkman, J.J.; Grijpink, J.H.A.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/095130861; Plomp, M.G.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313946809; Seignette, P.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents the results of the chain analysis of the epidemic control chain according to the method of chain-computerisation. The goal of the epidemic control chain is to prevent the disruption of society that is caused by disease or excess of preventive measures. The current

  5. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  6. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-05-04

    May 4, 1991 ... During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987,. 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in.

  7. Resilience of epidemics for SIS model on networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Yang, Shunkun; Zhang, Jiaquan; Wang, Huijuan; Li, Daqing

    2017-08-01

    Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate λ 2 during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is λ 1 in the rest of time. Noticing that when λ 1 is below λ c , there is no resilience in the SIS model. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for λ 2  < λ c , epidemics eventually could bounce back if the control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., cd max , seems to be predicted by the diameter (d) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation cd max ∼ d α . Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.

  8. Resilience of epidemics for SIS model on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Yang, Shunkun; Zhang, Jiaquan; Wang, Huijuan; Li, Daqing

    2017-08-01

    Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate λ2 during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is λ1 in the rest of time. Noticing that when λ1 is below λc, there is no resilience in the SIS model. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for λ2 < λc, epidemics eventually could bounce back if the control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., cdmax, seems to be predicted by the diameter (d) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation cdmax ˜ dα. Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.

  9. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  10. development of an epidemic early warning system in Mpwapwa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In some cases, mean:2$D method is used to determine thresholds for malaria epidemics. This involves the calculation of the long-term mean of monthly malaria cases (derived from a minimum 5- year data set from which abnormal years have been excluded) and an epidemic threshold set at two times the standard deviation ...

  11. Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten

    2016-01-01

    resulted in marginal improvements to the control of the epidemics. However, adding testing of dead animals in the protection and surveillance zones was predicted to be the optimal control scenario for an ASF epidemic in industrialized swine populations without contact to wild boar. This optimal scenario...

  12. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The article uses case studies, extracted from published epidemic stories and interprets these cases from a feminist and power analytical framework. The results suggest that while a disease or an epidemic affect a group of individuals, systemic factors regarding responsible governance and the role of national politics and ...

  13. Selected Differences in the Life Chances of Black and White in the United States. Research Group One, Report No. 17.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Howard J.

    Tabular data presented in this report comprise: total and black population of the U.S. for every census period from 1790 to 1970, the 50 cities with the largest black population for 1970, an index of residential segregation for 1960, selected views of age and sex, life and death, the educational profile of white and black in 1970, family income…

  14. Protecting Trees from Sudden Oak Death before Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Lee; Y. Valachovic; M. Garbelotto

    2010-01-01

    Phytophthora ramorum, an introduced invasive plant pathogen that causes sudden oak death, has killed over a million tanoak, coast live oak, Shreve oak, and California black oak trees along the California coastal region from Monterey through Humboldt Counties. Most trees infected with P. ramorum will eventually die, including...

  15. Sudden oak death in California: what is the potential?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara M. Barrett; Demetrios Gatziolis; Jeremy S. Fried; Karen L. Waddell

    2006-01-01

    Sudden oak death, a disease associated with the pathogen Phytophthora ramorum, has a large number of shrub and tree host species. Three of the tree species must susceptible to mortality from the disease, California black oak (Quercus kelloggii), coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), and tanoak (...

  16. Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2015-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) i...

  17. Dynamics of black holes

    OpenAIRE

    Hayward, Sean A.

    2008-01-01

    This is a review of current theory of black-hole dynamics, concentrating on the framework in terms of trapping horizons. Summaries are given of the history, the classical theory of black holes, the defining ideas of dynamical black holes, the basic laws, conservation laws for energy and angular momentum, other physical quantities and the limit of local equilibrium. Some new material concerns how processes such as black-hole evaporation and coalescence might be described by a single trapping h...

  18. Black holes are hot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibbons, G.

    1976-01-01

    Recent work, which has been investigating the use of the concept of entropy with respect to gravitating systems, black holes and the universe as a whole, is discussed. The resulting theory of black holes assigns a finite temperature to them -about 10 -7 K for ordinary black holes of stellar mass -which is in complete agreement with thermodynamical concepts. It is also shown that black holes must continuously emit particles just like ordinary bodies which have a certain temperature. (U.K.)

  19. Black widow spider bite: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaisford, Kristine; Kautz, Donald D

    2011-01-01

    This article is a case study of a patient cared for in the hours before her death. After the patient's death, we learned the patient died of a black widow spider bite. This article sheds light on the potential seriousness of this venom and allows for more rapid detection and treatment of those who are unfortunate enough to be bitten. The authors have documented the sequence of events for the patient, outlined the care the patient received, examined the pathophysiology of the body to a spider bite, and then made a passionate appeal for other nurses who work in critical care to do the same with patients in similar situations.

  20. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  1. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-03-13

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A new epidemic model of computer viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the epidemiological modeling of computer viruses. By incorporating the effect of removable storage media, considering the possibility of connecting infected computers to the Internet, and removing the conservative restriction on the total number of computers connected to the Internet, a new epidemic model is proposed. Unlike most previous models, the proposed model has no virus-free equilibrium and has a unique endemic equilibrium. With the aid of the theory of asymptotically autonomous systems as well as the generalized Poincare-Bendixson theorem, the endemic equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. By analyzing the influence of different system parameters on the steady number of infected computers, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence.

  3. Spatiotemporal epidemic models for rabies among animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shigui Ruan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a serious concern to public health and wildlife management worldwide. Over the last three decades, various mathematical models have been proposed to study the transmission dynamics of rabies. In this paper we provide a mini-review on some reaction-diffusion models describing the spatial spread of rabies among animals. More specifically, we introduce the susceptible-exposed-infectious models for the spatial transmission of rabies among foxes (Murray et al., 1986, the spatiotemporal epidemic model for rabies among raccoons (Neilan and Lenhart, 2011, the diffusive rabies model for skunk and bat interactions (Bonchering et al., 2012, and the reaction-diffusion model for rabies among dogs (Zhang et al., 2012. Numerical simulations on the spatiotemporal dynamics of these models from these papers are presented.

  4. Did acetaminophen provoke the autism epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter

    2009-12-01

    Schultz et al (2008) raised the question whether regression into autism is triggered, not by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, but by acetaminophen (Tylenol) given for its fever and pain. Considerable evidence supports this contention, most notably the exponential rise in the incidence of autism since 1980, when acetaminophen began to replace aspirin for infants and young children. The impetus for this shift - a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning that aspirin was associated with Reye's syndrome - has since been compellingly debunked. If aspirin is not to be feared as a cause of Reyes syndrome, and acetaminophen is to be feared as a cause of autism, can the autism epidemic be reversed by replacing acetaminophen with aspirin or other remedies?

  5. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  6. Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Oscar A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2011-01-01

    Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for “accidental pathogens” which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way. PMID:21760930

  7. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  8. Florida's tuberculosis epidemic. Public health response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, J J; Bigler, W J

    1994-03-01

    Florida ranked fourth in the nation with 1,707 tuberculosis cases reported in 1992 for a rate of 12.7 per 100,000 population. Thirteen percent of these patients had AIDS. Recent cases in prisons, shelters, hospitals and schools have stimulated interest and media coverage. Resurgence of strains of multiple-drug resistant tuberculosis is a serious concern. The Florida Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services, in collaboration with allied agencies, has utilized several initiatives in response. The most significant, Tuberculosis Epidemic Containment Plan, details intervention strategies needed to eliminate TB in the state by the year 2010. Successful implementation depends upon local TB prevention and control coalitions that include private and public sector providers.

  9. Determinants of STD epidemics: implications for phase appropriate intervention strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aral, S O

    2002-04-01

    Determinants of evolving epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are equally influenced by the evolution of the STD epidemics themselves and by the evolution of human societies. A temporal approach to STD transmission dynamics suggests the need to monitor infectivity, rate of exposure between infected and susceptible individuals, and duration of infectiousness in societies. Different indicators may be used to monitor rate of exposure in the general population and in core groups. In addition, underlying determinants of STD epidemics such as poverty, inequality, racial/ethnic discrimination, unemployment, sex ratio, volume of migration, and health care coverage and quality are important variables to monitor through a surveillance system focused on social context. Ongoing large scale societal changes including urbanisation, globalisation, increasing inequality, and increasing volume of migrant populations may affect the evolution of STD epidemics. Globalised STD epidemics could pose a major challenge to local public health systems.

  10. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  11. A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajisegiri, Whenayon Simeon; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C Raina

    2018-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Monopole black hole skyrmions

    OpenAIRE

    Moss, I.G.; Shiiki, N.; Winstanley, E.

    2000-01-01

    Charged black hole solutions with pion hair are discussed. These can be\\ud used to study monopole black hole catalysis of proton decay.\\ud There also exist\\ud multi-black hole skyrmion solutions with BPS monopole behaviour.

  13. Alcoholism and Blacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosley, Bertha; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Notes that in America, knowledge base concerning alcoholism is concentrated on drinking patterns of Whites, and that Black Americans often differ in their drinking behavior, resulting in a need to clarify issues regarding alcoholism and Blacks. Provides theoretical information useful in better discerning drinking behavior of Blacks. (Author/NB)

  14. What is black hole?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. What is black hole? Possible end phase of a star: A star is a massive, luminous ball of plasma having continuous nuclear burning. Star exhausts nuclear fuel →. White Dwarf, Neutron Star, Black Hole. Black hole's gravitational field is so powerful that even ...

  15. Genocide and Black Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnette, Calvin H.

    1972-01-01

    Contends that the survival of black people is in serious jeopardy as is evidenced in contemporary discussions on the worldwide plight of black people, and that an exhaustive study of the problem in its many dimensions is seriously lacking; the moral and ethical issues of genocide require examination from a black perspective. (JW)

  16. Black holes in binary stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijers, R.A.M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Introduction Distinguishing neutron stars and black holes Optical companions and dynamical masses X-ray signatures of the nature of a compact object Structure and evolution of black-hole binaries High-mass black-hole binaries Low-mass black-hole binaries Low-mass black holes Formation of black holes

  17. Education for Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puolimatka, Tapio; Solasaari, Ulla

    2006-01-01

    Death is an unavoidable fact of human life, which cannot be totally ignored in education. Children reflect on death and raise questions that deserve serious answers. If an educator completely evades the issue, children will seek other conversation partners. It is possible to find arguments both from secular and religious sources, which alleviate…

  18. BRAIN DEATH DIAGNOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calixto Machado

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Brain death (BD diagnosis should be established based on the following set of principles, i.e. excluding major confusing factors, identifying the cause of coma, determining irreversibility, and precisely testing brainstem reflexes at all levels of the brainstem. Nonetheless, most criteria for BD diagnosis do not mention that this is not the only way of diagnosing death. The Cuban Commission for the Determination of Death has emphasized the aforesaid three possible situations for diagnosing death: a outside intensive care environment (without life support physicians apply the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria; b in forensic medicine circumstances, physicians utilize cadaveric signs (they do not even need a stethoscope; c in the intensive care environment (with life support when cardiorespiratory arrest occurs physicians utilize the cardio-circulatory and respiratory criteria. This methodology of diagnosing death, based on finding any of the death signs, is not related to the concept that there are different types of death. The irreversible loss of cardio-circulatory and respiratory functions can only cause death when ischemia and anoxia are prolonged enough to produce an irreversible destruction of the brain. The sign of irreversible loss of brain functions, that is to say BD diagnosis, is fully reviewed.

  19. Death, Children, and Books.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Robin L.

    The books listed in this annotated bibliography are intended to help children understand the reality of death and deal with the mystery and emotions that accompany it. Each entry indicates the genre and reading level of the book and provides a brief description of the attitude toward death that it conveys. The selections include fables, fantasy,…

  20. Brain Death and Islam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziad-Miller, Amna; Elamin, Elamin M.

    2014-01-01

    How one defines death may vary. It is important for clinicians to recognize those aspects of a patient’s religious beliefs that may directly influence medical care and how such practices may interface with local laws governing the determination of death. Debate continues about the validity and certainty of brain death criteria within Islamic traditions. A search of PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, PsycNet, Sociological Abstracts, DIALOGUE ProQuest, Lexus Nexus, Google, and applicable religious texts was conducted to address the question of whether brain death is accepted as true death among Islamic scholars and clinicians and to discuss how divergent opinions may affect clinical care. The results of the literature review inform this discussion. Brain death has been acknowledged as representing true death by many Muslim scholars and medical organizations, including the Islamic Fiqh Academies of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the Muslim World League, the Islamic Medical Association of North America, and other faith-based medical organizations as well as legal rulings by multiple Islamic nations. However, consensus in the Muslim world is not unanimous, and a sizable minority accepts death by cardiopulmonary criteria only. PMID:25287999

  1. Programmed cell death

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-31

    The purpose of this conference to provide a multidisciplinary forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on the role programmed cell death plays in normal development and homeostasis of many organisms. This volume contains abstracts of papers in the following areas: invertebrate development; immunology/neurology; bcl-2 family; biochemistry; programmed cell death in viruses; oncogenesis; vertebrate development; and diseases.

  2. Death proteases come alive

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woltering, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    Cell death in plants exhibits morphological features comparable to caspase-mediated apoptosis in animals, suggesting that plant cell death is executed by (caspase-like) proteases. However, to date, no caspase homologues have been identified in plants and therefore the existence and nature of these

  3. Death Writ Large

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastenbaum, Robert

    2004-01-01

    Mainstream thanatology has devoted its efforts to improving the understanding, care, and social integration of people who are confronted with life-threatening illness or bereavement. This article suggests that it might now be time to expand the scope and mission to include large-scale death and death that occurs through complex and multi-domain…

  4. How to Build a Supermassive Black Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanjek, Christopher

    2003-01-01

    NASA astronomer Kim Weaver has got that sinking feeling. You know, it's that unsettling notion you get when you sift through your X-ray data and, to your surprise, find mid-sized black holes sinking toward the center of a galaxy, where they merge with others to form a single supermassive black hole. Could such a thing be true? These would be the largest mergers since America On Line bought Time-Warner, and perhaps even more violent. The process would turn a starburst galaxy inside out, making it more like a quasar host galaxy. Using the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, Weaver saw a hint of this fantastic process in a relatively nearby starburst galaxy named NGC 253 in the constellation Sculptor. She noticed that starburst galaxies - those gems set aglow in a colorful life cycle of hyperactive star birth, death, and renewal - seem to have a higher concentration of mid-mass black holes compared to other galaxies.

  5. Gratitude lessens death anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Rosanna W L; Cheng, Sheung-Tak

    2011-09-01

    This study investigated whether a brief gratitude induction could reduce death anxiety. 83 Chinese older adults (mean age = 62.7, SD = 7.13) were randomly assigned into one of three conditions: gratitude, hassle, and neutral, in which they wrote different types of life events before responding to measures of death anxiety and affect. Participants in the gratitude induction reported lower death anxiety than the hassle and the neutral condition, whereas no difference was observed for the latter two conditions. There was no experimental effect on positive affect, and a significant effect on negative affect but which did not favor the gratitude condition. By reexamining life events with a thankful attitude, people may become less fearful of death due to a sense that life has been well-lived. Because gratitude can be induced using a very brief procedure, there are broad applications in clinical and health-care settings for the relief of death anxiety.

  6. Sudden cardiac death

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Parakh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden cardiac death is one of the most common cause of mortality worldwide. Despite significant advances in the medical science, there is little improvement in the sudden cardiac death related mortality. Coronary artery disease is the most common etiology behind sudden cardiac death, in the above 40 years population. Even in the apparently healthy population, there is a small percentage of patients dying from sudden cardiac death. Given the large denominator, this small percentage contributes to the largest burden of sudden cardiac death. Identification of this at risk group among the apparently healthy individual is a great challenge for the medical fraternity. This article looks into the causes and methods of preventing SCD and at some of the Indian data. Details of Brugada syndrome, Long QT syndrome, Genetics of SCD are discussed. Recent guidelines on many of these causes are summarised.

  7. Death in media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavićević Aleksandra

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the role of media in a construction of public image speech and presentation of death. The main research questions could be posed as follows: does the media discourse confirm a thesis about modern society as the one which intensely avoids encounter with Death, or does it defy it? Frequent images or hints of death in visual media in films informative and entertainment programs-suggest certain changes related to this issue in the past few decades. This analysis focuses on printed media hence the paper assesses numerous issues of the daily journal Politika from 1963, 1972, 1973, 1979, 1985, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2007 and 2008, as well as some other daily journals after 2000. The analysis confirms a strong connection between the current political systems and ideology and speech about death. In addition, it reveals a political usage of this event but also speaks up about cultural and historical models, underlying all other constructions. During the 1960's and 1970's, the presentations, including the speech about death relied on the traditional understandings about inevitability of death and dying, and alternatively on atheistic beliefs related to the progress and wellbeing of the society. In this particular discourse, death was present to a limited degree, serving primarily to glorify socialist order. The end of the 1970's witnessed an increase in the glorification of the death, correlated with the decrease of the dominant political ideology. On the other hand, the 1990's brought about more presence of the national and religious symbolism and glorification of the dead as heroes. After 2000, mercantilism is evident throughout the media. All of the media broadcast drastic images of death and dead, thus providing an answer to the posed question at the beginning of this paper about the relationship of the modern society towards death but nevertheless, this still leaves out many implicit consequences and possible meanings.

  8. Cholera in pregnant women: the 2012 epidemic at the reference center at the Donka National Hospital in Conakry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sako, F B; Traoré, F A; Camara, M K; Sylla, M; Bangoura, E F; Baldé, O

    2016-05-01

    Cholera is an epidemic diarrheal disease transmitted through the digestive tract; it can cause obstetric complications in pregnant women. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic aspects of cholera in pregnant women, as well as its course, during the 2012 epidemic in Conakry. This retrospective, descriptive studied examined the records of this epidemic over a 7-month period (from May 15 to December 15, 2012). Of 2,808 cholera patients at our hospital, 80 were pregnant, that is, 2.85%. Their mean age was 30 years [range: 15-45 years], 94% were from Conakry (94%), and 69% were in the third trimester of pregnancy. Choleriform diarrhea and vomiting were the main signs, found respectively in 100% and 95% of the women; dehydration was mild for 16%, moderate for 45%, and severe for 39%. Support consisted of rehydration, by plans A (16%), B (45%) or C (39%) and antibiotic treatment based on erythromycin (85%), doxycycline (14%), or azithromycin (1%). Other drugs that were used included phloroglucinol-trimethylphloroglucinol (Spasfon(®)) for 45%, acetaminophen for 65%, and iron/folic acid for 1% of cases. The major obstetric complications were 4 intrauterine deaths (5%), 2 cases of threatened abortion (2%), 1 preterm delivery (1%), and 1 maternal death. The cholera outbreak in 2012 affected a large number of pregnant women in Conakry, most during their third trimester. The classic clinical manifestations were associated with obstetric complications and maternal-fetal risks.

  9. Black hole levitron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arsiwalla, Xerxes D.; Verlinde, Erik P.

    2010-01-01

    We study the problem of spatially stabilizing four dimensional extremal black holes in background electric/magnetic fields. Whilst looking for stationary stable solutions describing black holes placed in external fields we find that taking a continuum limit of Denef et al.'s multicenter supersymmetric black hole solutions provides a supergravity description of such backgrounds within which a black hole can be trapped within a confined volume. This construction is realized by solving for a levitating black hole over a magnetic dipole base. We comment on how such a construction is akin to a mechanical levitron.

  10. The epidemic of Athens, 430 - 426 BC

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998-01-01

    Jan 1, 1998 ... the Peloponnesian War, caused the death of the great statesman, Pericles, decimated the population and contributed significantly to the decline and fall of .... sufferer with a violence greater than human nature can bear, in the following point especially it showed plainly that it was something different from the ...

  11. The death of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart: an epidemiologic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegers, Richard H C; Weigl, Andreas; Steptoe, Andrew

    2009-08-18

    The early death of the composer Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart on 5 December 1791 has fascinated the world for more than 2 centuries. It has been suggested that his final illness was caused by poisoning, renal failure, Henoch-Schönlein purpura, trichinosis, and many other conditions. The official daily register of deaths in Mozart's Vienna was evaluated to provide an epidemiologic framework into which the observations of contemporary witnesses of his death can be integrated. All recorded deaths in Vienna during November and December 1791 and January 1792 were analyzed, together with the corresponding periods in 1790 to 1791 and 1792 to 1793. The deaths of 5011 adults (3442 men, 1569 women) were recorded over these periods. The mean ages of death were 45.5 years (SD, 18.5) for men and 54.5 years (SD, 19.9) for women. Tuberculosis and related conditions accounted for the highest number of deaths; cachexia and malnutrition ranked second, and edema was the third most common cause. According to eyewitness accounts, the hallmark of Mozart's final disease was severe edema. Deaths from edema were markedly increased among younger men in the weeks surrounding Mozart's death compared with the previous and following years. This minor epidemic may have originated in the military hospital. Our analysis is consistent with Mozart's last illness and death being due to a streptococcal infection leading to an acute nephritic syndrome caused by poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis. Scarlet fever, which represents the same underlying disease from an etiologic perspective, is a less likely possibility.

  12. Effects of Death Education on Conscious and Unconscious Death Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayslip, Bert, Jr.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Adults (n=162) varying in extent of participation in didactic or experiential forms of death education versus those who had no such exposure to death and dying-related issues completed measures of conscious and unconscious death fears. Findings suggest that didactic death education was effective in altering death anxiety, although effects were…

  13. Virus-Specific Differences in Rates of Disease during the 2010 Dengue Epidemic in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Santiago, Luis M.; Rivera, Aidsa; Rodríguez-Acosta, Rosa L.; Gonzalez Feliciano, Lorenzo; Margolis, Harold S.; Tomashek, Kay M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) that are endemic in Puerto Rico. In January 2010, the number of suspected dengue cases reported to the passive dengue surveillance system exceeded the epidemic threshold and an epidemic was declared soon after. Methodology/Principal Findings To characterize the epidemic, surveillance and laboratory diagnostic data were compiled. A suspected case was a dengue-like AFI in a person reported by a health care provider with or without a specimen submitted for diagnostic testing. Laboratory-positive cases had: (i) DENV nucleic acid detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in an acute serum specimen; (ii) anti-DENV IgM antibody detected by ELISA in any serum specimen; or (iii) DENV antigen or nucleic acid detected in an autopsy-tissue specimen. In 2010, a total of 26,766 suspected dengue cases (7.2 per 1,000 residents) were identified, of which 46.6% were laboratory-positive. Of 7,426 RT-PCR-positive specimens, DENV-1 (69.0%) and DENV-4 (23.6%) were detected more frequently than DENV-2 (7.3%) and DENV-3 (dengue with warning signs, 11.1% had severe dengue, and 40 died. Approximately 21% of cases were primary DENV infections, and 1–4 year olds were the only age group for which primary infection was more common than secondary. Individuals infected with DENV-1 were 4.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7–9.8) and 4.0 (95% CI: 2.4–6.5) times more likely to have primary infection than those infected with DENV-2 or -4, respectively. Conclusions/Significance This epidemic was long in duration and yielded the highest incidence of reported dengue cases and deaths since surveillance began in Puerto Rico in the late 1960's. This epidemic re-emphasizes the need for more effective primary prevention interventions to reduce the morbidity and mortality of dengue. PMID:23593526

  14. Structured Discretion, Racial Bias, and the Death Penalty: The First Decade after "Furman" in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekland-Olson, Sheldon

    1988-01-01

    Analyzes data collected in Texas from the first decade of cases sentenced to death after the Furman v. Georgia decision in order to determine any tendency toward being race-linked or victim-based. Found that cases involving White victims more often precipitate the death penalty than those involving Black or Hispanic victims. (KO)

  15. Reflections on trauma and violence-related deaths in Soweto, July ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Davies JCA, Walker AR? We need more accurate data on causes of sickness and death (Opinion). 5 Air Med J 1990; 77: 227-228. 3. Botha JL, Bradshaw D. African vital statistics - a black hole? S Afr Med J 1985;. 67: 977-981. 4. Kielkowski D, Steinberg M. Barron P. Life after death - mortality statistics and the public health.

  16. Incidence of unnatural deaths in Transkei sub-region of South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BL Meel

    86.9 per 100 000 of the population.4 Nearly half of the deaths due to injury in South Africa are .... 44. 968. 160. 1 235. 205. Figure 1: Unnatural death rate per 100 000 of population in the Transkei region of South Africa (n = 24 693). ... The Republic of Transkei was a former black homeland, which was merged with South ...

  17. Suicide on Death Row.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartaro, Christine; Lester, David

    2016-11-01

    Despite the level of supervision of inmates on death row, their suicide rate is higher than both the male prison population in the United States and the population of males over the age of 14 in free society. This study presents suicide data for death row inmates from 1978 through 2010. For the years 1978 through 2010, suicide rates on death row were higher than that for the general population of males over the age of 15 and for state prisons for all but 2 years. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  18. Existential concerns about death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene

    2014-01-01

    Background Research suggests that addressing dying patients’ existential concerns can help improve their quality of life. Common existential conditions, such as a search for meaning and considerations about faith, are probably intensified in a palliative setting and existential concerns about death...... “Managing death” demonstrated how the patients: 1) avoided thinking about death; 2) reconstructed individual ideas about afterlife on the basis of faith and previous cultural meaning-making; 3) were planning practical aspects about death; 4) wished to focus on living. The patients’ existential concerns...

  19. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  20. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  1. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiao-Ling; Wu, Xiao; Zhang, Duan-Ming; Li, Zhi-Hao; Liang, Fang; Wang, Xiao-Yu

    2008-05-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible Infect Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4.

  2. Existential Concerns About Death

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moestrup, Lene; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2014-01-01

    afterlife and made accurate decisions for practical aspects of their death. The patients wished to focus on positive aspects in their daily life at hospice. It hereby seems important to have ongoing reflections and to include different theoretical perspectives when providing existential support to dying......Research suggests that addressing dying patients’ existential concerns can improve their quality of life. Research on this subject from a patient perspective is missing in a Danish context. It is argued that the patients´ existential concerns cannot be captured by Irvin Yalom’s existential...... patients in Danish hospices. The main findings demonstrated how the patients faced the forthcoming death without being anxious of death but sorrowful about leaving life. Furthermore, patients expressed that they avoided thinking about death. However, some had reconstructed specific and positive ideas about...

  3. Hitler's Death Camps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Paul

    1995-01-01

    Presents a high school lesson on Hitler's death camps and the widespread policy of brutality and oppression against European Jews. Includes student objectives, instructional procedures, and a chart listing the value of used clothing taken from the Jews. (CFR)

  4. Complications and Deaths - State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - state data. This data set includes state-level data for the hip/knee complication measure, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality...

  5. Eighth Amendment & Death Penalty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortall, Joseph M.; Merrill, Denise W.

    1987-01-01

    Presents a lesson on capital punishment for juveniles based on three hypothetical cases. The goal of the lesson is to have students understand the complexities of decisions regarding the death penalty for juveniles. (JDH)

  6. Complications and Deaths - National

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - national data. This data set includes national-level data for the hip/knee complication measure, the Agency for Healthcare Research and...

  7. Death and the Self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Shaun; Strohminger, Nina; Rai, Arun; Garfield, Jay

    2018-01-22

    It is an old philosophical idea that if the future self is literally different from the current self, one should be less concerned with the death of the future self (Parfit, ). This paper examines the relation between attitudes about death and the self among Hindus, Westerners, and three Buddhist populations (Lay Tibetan, Lay Bhutanese, and monastic Tibetans). Compared with other groups, monastic Tibetans gave particularly strong denials of the continuity of self, across several measures. We predicted that the denial of self would be associated with a lower fear of death and greater generosity toward others. To our surprise, we found the opposite. Monastic Tibetan Buddhists showed significantly greater fear of death than any other group. The monastics were also less generous than any other group about the prospect of giving up a slightly longer life in order to extend the life of another. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Complications and Deaths - Hospital

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Complications and deaths - provider data. This data set includes provider data for the hip/knee complication measure, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality...

  9. Black Rhino Diceros Bicornis Minor mortality in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V de Vos

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available The death of two black rhinos (Diceros bicornis minor in the Kruger National Park is described. A diagnosis of lamsiekte, or botulism, was made, based on typical clinical findings backed by circumstantial evidence.

  10. Black Rhino Diceros Bicornis Minor mortality in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V de Vos

    1980-12-01

    Full Text Available The death of two black rhinos (Diceros bicornis minor in the Kruger National Park is described. A diagnosis of lamsiekte, or botulism, was made, based on typical clinical findings backed by circumstantial evidence.

  11. The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: A quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914–1933

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosawa, Aiko; Tojinbara, Kageaki; Kadowaki, Hazumu; Hampson, Katie; Yamada, Akio

    2017-01-01

    Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0), the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases) during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases) than the first (879 cases), but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42). The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP) and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928), and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed to promoting the successful participation required to achieve rabies elimination. PMID:28333929

  12. The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: A quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914-1933.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosawa, Aiko; Tojinbara, Kageaki; Kadowaki, Hazumu; Hampson, Katie; Yamada, Akio; Makita, Kohei

    2017-03-01

    Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0), the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases) during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases) than the first (879 cases), but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42). The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP) and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928), and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed to promoting the successful participation required to achieve rabies elimination.

  13. Funerals against death

    OpenAIRE

    Bailey, Tara; Walter, Tony

    2015-01-01

    While anthropological studies in non-Western societies show how funerals protect the community from the threat of death, sociological studies of British funerals have so far focused on meanings for the private family. The article reports on results from a Mass Observation directive - the first British study to focus specifically on the entire funeral congregation – and shows how attendees experience the contemporary life-centred funeral as a symbolic conquest of death. While the eulogy’s accu...

  14. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  15. Diabetes mellitus: The epidemic of the century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharroubi, Akram T; Darwish, Hisham M

    2015-01-01

    The epidemic nature of diabetes mellitus in different regions is reviewed. The Middle East and North Africa region has the highest prevalence of diabetes in adults (10.9%) whereas, the Western Pacific region has the highest number of adults diagnosed with diabetes and has countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes (37.5%). Different classes of diabetes mellitus, type 1, type 2, gestational diabetes and other types of diabetes mellitus are compared in terms of diagnostic criteria, etiology and genetics. The molecular genetics of diabetes received extensive attention in recent years by many prominent investigators and research groups in the biomedical field. A large array of mutations and single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes that play a role in the various steps and pathways involved in glucose metabolism and the development, control and function of pancreatic cells at various levels are reviewed. The major advances in the molecular understanding of diabetes in relation to the different types of diabetes in comparison to the previous understanding in this field are briefly reviewed here. Despite the accumulation of extensive data at the molecular and cellular levels, the mechanism of diabetes development and complications are still not fully understood. Definitely, more extensive research is needed in this field that will eventually reflect on the ultimate objective to improve diagnoses, therapy and minimize the chance of chronic complications development. PMID:26131326

  16. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  17. Funerals against death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Tara; Walter, Tony

    2016-04-02

    While anthropological studies in non-Western societies show how funerals protect the community from the threat of death, sociological studies of British funerals have so far focused on meanings for the private family. The article reports on results from a Mass Observation directive - the first British study to focus specifically on the entire funeral congregation - and shows how attendees experience the contemporary life-centred funeral as a symbolic conquest of death. While the eulogy's accuracy is important, even more so - at least for some - is its authenticity, namely that the speaker has personal knowledge of the deceased. Whereas Davies analyses the power of professionally delivered ritual words against death, our data reveals how admired is the courage exercised by non-professionals in speaking against death, however faltering their words. Further, the very presence of a congregation whose members have known the deceased in diverse ways embodies a configurational eulogy, which we term relationships against death. We thus argue that funerals symbolically conquer death not only through words delivered by ritual specialists, but also through those who knew the deceased congregating and speaking .

  18. CDC Vital Signs-Heroin Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This podcast is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  19. Breast cancer statistics, 2015: Convergence of incidence rates between black and white women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSantis, Carol E; Fedewa, Stacey A; Goding Sauer, Ann; Kramer, Joan L; Smith, Robert A; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the American Cancer Society provides an overview of female breast cancer statistics in the United States, including data on incidence, mortality, survival, and screening. Approximately 231,840 new cases of invasive breast cancer and 40,290 breast cancer deaths are expected to occur among US women in 2015. Breast cancer incidence rates increased among non-Hispanic black (black) and Asian/Pacific Islander women and were stable among non-Hispanic white (white), Hispanic, and American Indian/Alaska Native women from 2008 to 2012. Although white women have historically had higher incidence rates than black women, in 2012, the rates converged. Notably, during 2008 through 2012, incidence rates were significantly higher in black women compared with white women in 7 states, primarily located in the South. From 1989 to 2012, breast cancer death rates decreased by 36%, which translates to 249,000 breast cancer deaths averted in the United States over this period. This decrease in death rates was evident in all racial/ethnic groups except American Indians/Alaska Natives. However, the mortality disparity between black and white women nationwide has continued to widen; and, by 2012, death rates were 42% higher in black women than in white women. During 2003 through 2012, breast cancer death rates declined for white women in all 50 states; but, for black women, declines occurred in 27 of 30 states that had sufficient data to analyze trends. In 3 states (Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin), breast cancer death rates in black women were stable during 2003 through 2012. Widening racial disparities in breast cancer mortality are likely to continue, at least in the short term, in view of the increasing trends in breast cancer incidence rates in black women. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  20. [Epidemic of infectious disease with echovirus type 16--epidemic in Tono area, Gifu Prefecture in 1984].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miwa, C; Watanabe, Y

    1990-07-01

    During the period from May to August, 1984, an epidemic of infectious disease with echovirus type 16 occurred in Tono area of southeast in Gifu prefecture. This virus caused children to have different clinical symptoms, one was a exanthem disease and another was aseptic meningitis. These cases confirmed by virological and serological methods were 48 cases, that is, patients with aseptic meningitis were 24 cases and patients with exanthem disease were 24 cases. By serological examination of antibody against echovirus type 16, it was confirmed that this virus type invaded Gifu Prefecture before 1984.

  1. [Representations of death (exploratory research with people nearing death).].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desrosiers, Y

    1985-01-01

    In this article, we have explored the concepts of death as described by people in close contact with death (either personal or professional). A projective test AT9 (by Yves Durand, psychologist) was completed by sixteen persons in mourning, twenty-five workers directly involved in a situation of death and twenty-three "normal" subjects (control), that is, without an immediate proximity with death. An important theoretical conclusion stems from this exploratory survey: the nearness of death does not seem to affect the concepts of death. The exploration of this imagi-nery world of concepts of death has allowed those engaged in counselling to help people affected by death.

  2. Interacting black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Miguel S.; Perry, Malcolm J.

    2000-01-01

    We revisit the geometry representing l collinear Schwarzschild black holes. It is seen that the black holes' horizons are deformed by their mutual gravitational attraction. The geometry has a string like conical singularity that connects the holes but has nevertheless a well defined action. Using standard gravitational thermodynamics techniques we determine the free energy for two black holes at fixed temperature and distance, their entropy and mutual force. When the black holes are far apart the results agree with Newtonian gravity expectations. This analyses is generalized to the case of charged black holes. Then we consider black holes embedded in string/M-theory as bound states of branes. Using the effective string description of these bound states and for large separation we reproduce exactly the semi-classical result for the entropy, including the correction associated with the interaction between the holes

  3. Black silicon integrated aperture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianbo; Dickensheets, David L.

    2017-10-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of nanotextured black silicon as an optical absorbing material into silicon-based micro-optoelectromechanical systems devices to reduce stray light and increase optical contrast during imaging. Black silicon is created through a maskless dry etch process and characterized for two different etch conditions, a cold etch performed at 0°C and a cryogenic etch performed at -110°C. We measure specular reflection at visible wavelengths to be black velvet paint used to coat optical baffles and compare favorably with other methods to produce black surfaces from nanotextured silicon or using carbon nanotubes. We illustrate the use of this material by integrating a black silicon aperture around the perimeter of a deformable focus-control mirror. Imaging results show a significant improvement in contrast and image fidelity due to the effective reduction in stray light achieved with the self-aligned black aperture.

  4. Astrophysical black holes

    CERN Document Server

    Gorini, Vittorio; Moschella, Ugo; Treves, Aldo; Colpi, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Based on graduate school lectures in contemporary relativity and gravitational physics, this book gives a complete and unified picture of the present status of theoretical and observational properties of astrophysical black holes. The chapters are written by internationally recognized specialists. They cover general theoretical aspects of black hole astrophysics, the theory of accretion and ejection of gas and jets, stellar-sized black holes observed in the Milky Way, the formation and evolution of supermassive black holes in galactic centers and quasars as well as their influence on the dynamics in galactic nuclei. The final chapter addresses analytical relativity of black holes supporting theoretical understanding of the coalescence of black holes as well as being of great relevance in identifying gravitational wave signals. With its introductory chapters the book is aimed at advanced graduate and post-graduate students, but it will also be useful for specialists.

  5. Disease epidemics: Lessons for resilience in an increasingly connected world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig R.; DeWitte, S.N.; Kurth, M.H.; Linkov, I.

    2016-01-01

    In public health, the term resilience often refers to the personality traits that individuals possess which help them endure and recover from stressors. However, resilience as a system characteristic, especially in regards to complex social-ecological systems, can be informative for public health at scales larger than the individual. Acute shocks to systems occur against a background of existing conditions, which are crucial determinants of the eventual public health outcomes of those shocks, and in the context of complex dependencies among and between ecological and societal elements. Many components of a system's baseline condition are chronic public health concerns themselves and diminish the capacity of the system to perform in the face of acute shocks. The emerging field of resilience management is concerned with holistically assessing and improving a system's ability to prepare for and absorb disruption, and then recover and adapt across physical, information, environmental and social domains. Integrating resilience considerations into current risk- and evidence-based approaches to disease control and prevention1 can move public health efforts toward more proactive and comprehensive solutions for protecting and improving the health of communities. Here, we look to the case of the Black Death as an illustrative case of a dramatic transformation in human history, an acute shock to a system that was underlain by chronic social maladies, to derive lessons about resilience management for public health in contemporary systems.

  6. Interactions among symbionts operate across scales to influence parasite epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliday, Fletcher W; Umbanhowar, James; Mitchell, Charles E

    2017-10-01

    Parasite epidemics may be influenced by interactions among symbionts, which can depend on past events at multiple spatial scales. Within host individuals, interactions can depend on the sequence in which symbionts infect a host, generating priority effects. Across host individuals, interactions can depend on parasite phenology. To test the roles of parasite interactions and phenology in epidemics, we embedded multiple cohorts of sentinel plants, grown from seeds with and without a vertically transmitted symbiont, into a wild host population, and tracked foliar infections caused by three common fungal parasites. Within hosts, parasite growth was influenced by coinfections, but coinfections were often prevented by priority effects among symbionts. Across hosts, parasite phenology altered host susceptibility to secondary infections, symbiont interactions and ultimately the magnitude of parasite epidemics. Together, these results indicate that parasite phenology can influence parasite epidemics by altering the sequence of infection and interactions among symbionts within host individuals. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  7. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  8. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  9. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  10. Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion with Population Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS epidemic diffusion model with population migration between two cities is modeled. Global stability conditions for both the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are analyzed and proved. The main contribution of this paper is reflected in epidemic modeling and analysis which considers unequal migration rates, and only susceptible individuals can migrate between the two cities. Numerical simulation shows when the epidemic diffusion system is stable, number of infected individuals in one city can reach zero, while the number of infected individuals in the other city is still positive. On the other hand, decreasing population migration in only one city seems not as effective as improving the recovery rate for controlling the epidemic diffusion.

  11. [Epidemics and disease during the Revolution Period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfilippo-Borrás, José

    2010-01-01

    The health condition in Mexico was bad around de beginning of the revolutionary period. The movement of troops led the development of epidemics like yellow fever, typhus, smallpox, and influenza that were enhance with natural disasters and hunger in whole country, from cost to cost and in the north big cities like Monterrey, Guadalajara and Saltillo. Doctor Liceaga conducted a well planned campaign against yellow fever eradicating water stagnant deposits in order to combat the vector transmission, the Aedes aegypti, mosquito with satisfactory results. The first smallpox epidemic in the XX Century in Mexico was in 1916. The Mexican physicians used the smallpox vaccine against this epidemic. An American physician named Howard Taylor Ricketts arrived to Mexico for studying the typhus transmission. Accidentally he had been infected and finally, he died from typhus. Definitively, the epidemics predominate along de revolutionary period in Mexico.

  12. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Alexander, Laura W; Park, Andrew W; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

    2016-08-01

    Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value.

  13. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  14. HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... The Basics The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the United States: The Basics Published: Apr 11, 2018 Facebook Twitter ... become known as AIDS were reported in the United States in June of 1981. 1 Today, there are ...

  15. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  16. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  17. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  18. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  19. Type 2 diabetes: the emerging epidemic | Rheeder | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. This article reports on the prevalence of diabetes in South Africa and gives projections for the epidemic proportions that this disease may take by the year 2030. South African Family Practice Vol. 48 (10) 2006: pp. 20 ...

  20. Death, disease and diversity in Australia, 1951 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, D M

    2001-01-01

    There has been a substantial decline in mortality in Australia during the 20th century, with a major improvement in life expectancy. There has been a broad "health transition", from a pattern of high mortality from infectious diseases to one of lower overall mortality from non-communicable diseases and injury. From 1951, trends in death rates from major causes were evident, with the rise and partial fall of two epidemics (coronary heart disease and stroke, and lung cancer). This overall picture masks significant inequalities in health for Indigenous people and the socioeconomically disadvantaged.

  1. Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

  2. The Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC): A topological approach to the time-space structure of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscema, Massimo; Massini, Giulia; Sacco, Pier Luigi

    2018-02-01

    This paper offers the first systematic presentation of the topological approach to the analysis of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic spatial processes. We introduce the basic concepts and proofs, at test the approach on a diverse collection of case studies of historically documented epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes. The approach is found to consistently provide reliable estimates of the structural features of epidemic processes, and to provide useful analytical insights and interpretations of fragmentary pseudo-epidemic processes. Although this analysis has to be regarded as preliminary, we find that the approach's basic tenets are strongly corroborated by this first test and warrant future research in this vein.

  3. Do black lives matter in public health research and training?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molly Rosenberg

    Full Text Available To examine whether investments made in public health research align with the health burdens experienced by white and black Americans.In this cross-sectional study of all deaths in the United States in 2015, we compared the distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL across 39 causes of death by race and identified key differences. We examined the relationship between cause-of-death-specific PYLL and key indicators of public health investment (federal funding and number of publications by race using linear spline models. We also compared the number of courses available at the top schools of public health relevant to the top causes of death contributor to PYLL for black and white Americans.Homicide was the number one contributor to PYLL among black Americans, while ischemic heart disease was the number one contributor to PYLL among white Americans. Firearm-related violence accounted for 88% of black PYLL attributed to homicide and 71% of white PYLL attributed to homicide. Despite the high burden of PYLL, homicide research was the focus of few federal grants or publications. In comparison, ischemic heart disease garnered 341 grants and 594 publications. The number of public health courses available relevant to homicide (n = 9 was similar to those relevant to ischemic heart disease (n = 10.Black Americans are disproportionately affected by homicide, compared to white Americans. For both black and white Americans, the majority of PYLL due to homicide are firearm-related. Yet, homicide research is dramatically underrepresented in public health research investments in terms of grant funding and publications, despite available public health training opportunities. If left unchecked, the observed disproportionate distribution of investments in public health resources threatens to perpetuate a system that disadvantages black Americans.

  4. Black branes as piezoelectrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, Jay; Gath, Jakob; Obers, Niels A

    2012-12-14

    We find a realization of linear electroelasticity theory in gravitational physics by uncovering a new response coefficient of charged black branes, exhibiting their piezoelectric behavior. Taking charged dilatonic black strings as an example and using the blackfold approach we measure their elastic and piezolectric moduli. We also use our results to draw predictions about the equilibrium condition of charged dilatonic black rings in dimensions higher than six.

  5. Naked black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, G.T.; Ross, S.F.

    1997-01-01

    It is shown that there are large static black holes for which all curvature invariants are small near the event horizon, yet any object which falls in experiences enormous tidal forces outside the horizon. These black holes are charged and near extremality, and exist in a wide class of theories including string theory. The implications for cosmic censorship and the black hole information puzzle are discussed. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  6. Nonextremal stringy black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, K.

    1997-01-01

    We construct a four-dimensional BPS saturated heterotic string solution from the Taub-NUT solution. It is a nonextremal black hole solution since its Euler number is nonzero. We evaluate its black hole entropy semiclassically. We discuss the relation between the black hole entropy and the degeneracy of string states. The entropy of our string solution can be understood as the microscopic entropy which counts the elementary string states without any complications. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  7. CDC WONDER: Mortality - Infant Deaths

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Mortality - Infant Deaths (from Linked Birth / Infant Death Records) online databases on CDC WONDER provide counts and rates for deaths of children under 1 year...

  8. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  9. The deterministic SIS epidemic model in a Markovian random environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, Antonis; Lopez-Herrero, Maria Jesus

    2016-07-01

    We consider the classical deterministic susceptible-infective-susceptible epidemic model, where the infection and recovery rates depend on a background environmental process that is modeled by a continuous time Markov chain. This framework is able to capture several important characteristics that appear in the evolution of real epidemics in large populations, such as seasonality effects and environmental influences. We propose computational approaches for the determination of various distributions that quantify the evolution of the number of infectives in the population.

  10. [Deaths in hotels].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risse, Manfred; Weilbächer, Nadine; Birngruber, Christoph; Verhoff, Marcel A

    2010-01-01

    There are no verified statistics about deaths occurring in hotels, and only a few cases have been described in the literature. A recent case induced us to conduct a systematic search for deaths in hotels in the autopsy reports of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Giessen for the period from 1968 to 2009. This search yielded 22 evaluable cases in which persons had been found dead or had died in hotels. Data evaluated in the study were sex and age of the deceased, reason for the stay in the hotel and cause of death. Among the deaths, 18 were males and 4 females and the average age was 41 and 40 years respectively. 6 of the male guests had died from a natural and 10 from a non-natural cause. In the remaining two cases, the cause of death could not be determined, but as there was no evidence that another party had been involved, the cases were not further investigated. Of the 4 female guests, 3 had died of a natural cause; in one case, the cause of death remained unclear even after morphological and toxicological investigations. Surprisingly, a third of the men were found to be temporarily living in hotels due to social circumstances. This was not true for any of the women. Our retrospective analysis is based on a comparatively small number of deaths in what were mostly hotels in small to medium-sized towns. Interestingly, the gender ratio of 18:4 for deceased men and women was significantly higher than the usual gender ratio of 2:1 found for forensic autopsies. To be able to draw further conclusions, a greater number of cases would have to be analysed, for example by recruiting additional case files from other institutes of legal medicine. This would also open up the option of investigating possible regional variations.

  11. Black holes, white dwarfs and neutron stars: The physics of compact objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, S.L.; Teukolsky, S.A.

    1983-01-01

    The contents include: Star deaths and the formation of compact objects; White dwarfs; Rotation and magnetic fields; Cold equation of state above neutron drip; Pulsars; Accretion onto black holes; Supermassive stars and black holes; Appendices; and Indexes. This book discusses one aspect, compact objects, of astronomy and provides information of astrophysics or general relativity

  12. An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fenelon

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

  13. Vital Signs: Racial Disparities in Age-Specific Mortality Among Blacks or African Americans - United States, 1999-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Timothy J; Croft, Janet B; Liu, Yong; Lu, Hua; Eke, Paul I; Giles, Wayne H

    2017-05-05

    Although the overall life expectancy at birth has increased for both blacks and whites and the gap between these populations has narrowed, disparities in life expectancy and the leading causes of death for blacks compared with whites in the United States remain substantial. Understanding how factors that influence these disparities vary across the life span might enhance the targeting of appropriate interventions. Trends during 1999-2015 in mortality rates for the leading causes of death were examined by black and white race and age group. Multiple 2014 and 2015 national data sources were analyzed to compare blacks with whites in selected age groups by sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health behaviors, health-related quality of life indicators, use of health services, and chronic conditions. During 1999-2015, age-adjusted death rates decreased significantly in both populations, with rates declining more sharply among blacks for most leading causes of death. Thus, the disparity gap in all-cause mortality rates narrowed from 33% in 1999 to 16% in 2015. However, during 2015, blacks still had higher death rates than whites for all-cause mortality in all groups aged blacks in age groups deaths among blacks (especially cardiovascular disease and cancer and their risk factors) across the life span and create equal opportunities for health.

  14. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  15. Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

    2017-10-01

    Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

  16. Molecular complexity of successive bacterial epidemics deconvoluted by comparative pathogenomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beres, Stephen B; Carroll, Ronan K; Shea, Patrick R; Sitkiewicz, Izabela; Martinez-Gutierrez, Juan Carlos; Low, Donald E; McGeer, Allison; Willey, Barbara M; Green, Karen; Tyrrell, Gregory J; Goldman, Thomas D; Feldgarden, Michael; Birren, Bruce W; Fofanov, Yuriy; Boos, John; Wheaton, William D; Honisch, Christiane; Musser, James M

    2010-03-02

    Understanding the fine-structure molecular architecture of bacterial epidemics has been a long-sought goal of infectious disease research. We used short-read-length DNA sequencing coupled with mass spectroscopy analysis of SNPs to study the molecular pathogenomics of three successive epidemics of invasive infections involving 344 serotype M3 group A Streptococcus in Ontario, Canada. Sequencing the genome of 95 strains from the three epidemics, coupled with analysis of 280 biallelic SNPs in all 344 strains, revealed an unexpectedly complex population structure composed of a dynamic mixture of distinct clonally related complexes. We discovered that each epidemic is dominated by micro- and macrobursts of multiple emergent clones, some with distinct strain genotype-patient phenotype relationships. On average, strains were differentiated from one another by only 49 SNPs and 11 insertion-deletion events (indels) in the core genome. Ten percent of SNPs are strain specific; that is, each strain has a unique genome sequence. We identified nonrandom temporal-spatial patterns of strain distribution within and between the epidemic peaks. The extensive full-genome data permitted us to identify genes with significantly increased rates of nonsynonymous (amino acid-altering) nucleotide polymorphisms, thereby providing clues about selective forces operative in the host. Comparative expression microarray analysis revealed that closely related strains differentiated by seemingly modest genetic changes can have significantly divergent transcriptomes. We conclude that enhanced understanding of bacterial epidemics requires a deep-sequencing, geographically centric, comparative pathogenomics strategy.

  17. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  18. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  19. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  20. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: monogenean epidemics in guppies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirelle B Johnson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata. Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria, and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.