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Sample records for belsk 52degreen 21degreee

  1. Nonlinear (MARS modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000

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    J. W. Krzyścin

    Full Text Available A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions

  2. The long-term variability of atmospheric ozone from the 50-yr observations carried out at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland

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    JANUSZ W. Krzyścin

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Total ozone (TO3 and ozone vertical profile (by the Umkehr method have been measured at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland, since March 1963. The monthly mean data are analysed for the long-term changes in the period 1975–1996 and 1997–2012, that is, in the increasing and decreasing phases of the ozone-depleting substances (ODS concentration in the mid-altitude stratosphere over the NH mid-latitudes. Standard explanatory variables are selected for the ozone variability attribution to chemical and dynamical processes. A triad of regression models with various formulae for the trend term is examined to get a synergetic effect. The trend term could be: (1 proportional to ODS, (2 piecewise linear (with the turning points in 1975 – the trend onset and in 1997 – the trend overturning, (3 represented by any smooth curve fitted to the ozone time series having ‘natural variations’ removed. Confirming the results from previous studies on the midlatitudinal ozone, the analyses show a weakening of the TO3 trend and the statistically significant positive trend in the upper stratospheric region (33–43 km since 1997. The TO3 depletion in summer and autumn for the period 1997–2012 is found in the Umkehr data due to the ozone decrease in the lower and mid-stratosphere. A novel statistical-simulation-based test is proposed. It uses the bootstrap sample of the smooth trend pattern to calculate statistical significance of hypotheses for the trend variability. The test corroborates the results of the regression models and shows strengthening of the ozone negative trend in summer and autumn, disclosed in the Umkehr data, since about 2005.

  3. Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

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    J. W. Krzyscin

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The daily doses of the erythemally weighted UV radiation are reconstructed for three sites in Central Europe: Belsk-Poland (1966–2001, Hradec Kralove-Czech Republic (1964–2001, and Tõravere-Estonia (1967–2001 to discuss the UV climatology and the long-term changes of the UV-B radiation since the mid 1960s. Various reconstruction models are examined: a purely statistical model based on the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS methodology, and a hybrid model combining radiative transfer model calculations with empirical estimates of the cloud effects on the UV radiation. Modeled long-term variations of the surface UV doses appear to be in a reasonable agreement with the observed ones. A simple quality control procedure is proposed to check the homogeneity of the biometer and pyranometer data. The models are verified using the results of UV observations carried out at Belsk since 1976. MARS provides the best estimates of the UV doses, giving a mean difference between the modeled and observed monthly means equal to 0.6±2.5%. The basic findings are: similar climatological forcing by clouds for all considered stations (~30% reduction in the surface UV, long-term variations in UV monthly doses having the same temporal pattern for all stations with extreme low monthly values (~5% below overall mean level at the end of the 1970s and extreme high monthly values (~5% above overall mean level in the mid 1990s, regional peculiarities in the cloud long-term forcing sometimes leading to extended periods with elevated UV doses, recent stabilization of the ozone induced UV long-term changes being a response to a trendless tendency of total ozone since the mid 1990s. In the case of the slowdown of the total ozone trend over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes it seems that clouds will appear as the most important modulator of the UV radiation both in long- and short-time scales over next decades. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure

  4. Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Krzyscin

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The daily doses of the erythemally weighted UV radiation are reconstructed for three sites in Central Europe: Belsk-Poland (1966–2001, Hradec Kralove-Czech Republic (1964–2001, and Tõravere-Estonia (1967–2001 to discuss the UV climatology and the long-term changes of the UV-B radiation since the mid 1960s. Various reconstruction models are examined: a purely statistical model based on the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS methodology, and a hybrid model combining radiative transfer model calculations with empirical estimates of the cloud effects on the UV radiation. Modeled long-term variations of the surface UV doses appear to be in a reasonable agreement with the observed ones. A simple quality control procedure is proposed to check the homogeneity of the biometer and pyranometer data. The models are verified using the results of UV observations carried out at Belsk since 1976. MARS provides the best estimates of the UV doses, giving a mean difference between the modeled and observed monthly means equal to 0.6±2.5%. The basic findings are: similar climatological forcing by clouds for all considered stations (~30% reduction in the surface UV, long-term variations in UV monthly doses having the same temporal pattern for all stations with extreme low monthly values (~5% below overall mean level at the end of the 1970s and extreme high monthly values (~5% above overall mean level in the mid 1990s, regional peculiarities in the cloud long-term forcing sometimes leading to extended periods with elevated UV doses, recent stabilization of the ozone induced UV long-term changes being a response to a trendless tendency of total ozone since the mid 1990s. In the case of the slowdown of the total ozone trend over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes it seems that clouds will appear as the most important modulator of the UV radiation both in long- and short-time scales over next decades.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and

  5. GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

    2011-12-01

    Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

  6. Proceedings of the XIIIth IAGA Workshop on Geomagnetic Observatory Instruments, Data Acquisition, and Processing

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    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    The thirteenth biennial International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Workshop on Geomagnetic Observatory Instruments, Data Acquisition and Processing was held in the United States for the first time on June 9-18, 2008. Hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Geomagnetism Program, the workshop's measurement session was held at the Boulder Observatory and the scientific session was held on the campus of the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado. More than 100 participants came from 36 countries and 6 continents. Preparation for the workshop began when the USGS Geomagnetism Program agreed, at the close of the twelfth workshop in Belsk Poland in 2006, to host the next workshop. Working under the leadership of Alan Berarducci, who served as the chairman of the local organizing committee, and Tim White, who served as co-chairman, preparations began in 2007. The Boulder Observatory was extensively renovated and additional observation piers were installed. Meeting space on the Colorado School of Mines campus was arranged, and considerable planning was devoted to managing the many large and small issues that accompany an international meeting. Without the devoted efforts of both Alan and Tim, other Geomagnetism Program staff, and our partners at the Colorado School of Mines, the workshop simply would not have occurred. We express our thanks to Jill McCarthy, the USGS Central Region Geologic Hazards Team Chief Scientist; Carol A. Finn, the Group Leader of the USGS Geomagnetism Program; the USGS International Office; and Melody Francisco of the Office of Special Programs and Continuing Education of the Colorado School of Mines. We also thank the student employees that the Geomagnetism Program has had over the years and leading up to the time of the workshop. For preparation of the proceedings, thanks go to Eddie and Tim. And, finally, we thank our sponsors, the USGS, IAGA, and the Colorado School of Mines.

  7. On Day-to-Day Variability of Global Lightning Activity as Quantified from Background Schumann Resonance Observations

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    Mushtak, V. C.; Williams, E. R.

    2011-12-01

    final stage from the estimated positions and relative activities of the modeled "chimneys" using SR power spectra at the stations with the most reliable calibrations. Additional stabilization in the procedure has been achieved by exploiting the Le Come/Goltzman inversion algorithm that uses the empirically estimated statistical characteristics of the input parameters. When applied to electric and/or magnetic observations collected simultaneously in January 2009 from six ELF stations in Poland (Belsk), Japan (Moshiri), Hungary (Nagycenk), USA (Rhode Island), India (Shillong), and Antarctica (Syowa), the inversion procedure reveals a general repeatability of diurnal lightning scenarios with variations of "chimney" centroid locations by a few megameters, while the estimated regional activity has been found to vary from day to day by up to several tens of percent. A combined empirical-theoretical analysis of the collected data aimed at selecting the most reliably calibrated ELF stations is presently in progress. All the effort is being made to transform the relative lightning activity into absolute units by the time of this meeting. The authors are greatly thankful to all the experimentalists who generously provided their observations and related information for this study.

  8. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric