Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David S. Murphy

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

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Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time

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Vijay Mohan eK Namboodiri

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier versus later rewards (intertemporal decision-making is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory—Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR—that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval—over which experienced reward rate is estimated—as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the nonlinearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

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Nease, R F

1996-01-01

Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory.

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Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

2014-12-01

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory's predictions about reliance on gist processing.

A philosophical assessment of decision theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Karsten Klint

2012-01-01

modern axiomatic decision theory is an instance of fundamental measurement theory. This is then followed by a thorough introduction to Savage’s version of modern axiomatic decision theory. Turning to the interpretation of the theory, the maxim “maximize expected utility,” which stems from classical...... assignments. In the modern approach, the action guidance is to conform to the axioms. Analyzing decision theory as a theory of good, the maxim “maximize expected goodness” repeats the misunderstanding. Moreover, it implies risk neutrality about good and a cardinal measure of good, and both are problematic......The significance of decision theory consists of giving an account of rational decision making under circumstances of uncertainty. This question is important both from the point of view of what is in our personal interest and from the point of view of what is ethically right. But decision theory...

An overview of decision theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, S.O.

1991-01-01

This paper has been written to provide a non-technical overview of modern decision theory and to identify some of the major ways in which decision theory is relevant to the nuclear waste issue. It concludes that the use of decision theory in the nuclear waste issue should be further developed, and more sophisticated tools should be made used of. In particular, the application of models for uncertainty and for collective decision-making is warranted, and the same applies to models that include the earlier phases of the decision-making process. (92 refs.)

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

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Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

2012-07-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

Quantum theory of measurements as quantum decision theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

2015-01-01

Theory of quantum measurements is often classified as decision theory. An event in decision theory corresponds to the measurement of an observable. This analogy looks clear for operationally testable simple events. However, the situation is essentially more complicated in the case of composite events. The most difficult point is the relation between decisions under uncertainty and measurements under uncertainty. We suggest a unified language for describing the processes of quantum decision making and quantum measurements. The notion of quantum measurements under uncertainty is introduced. We show that the correct mathematical foundation for the theory of measurements under uncertainty, as well as for quantum decision theory dealing with uncertain events, requires the use of positive operator-valued measure that is a generalization of projection-valued measure. The latter is appropriate for operationally testable events, while the former is necessary for characterizing operationally uncertain events. In both decision making and quantum measurements, one has to distinguish composite nonentangled events from composite entangled events. Quantum probability can be essentially different from classical probability only for entangled events. The necessary condition for the appearance of an interference term in the quantum probability is the occurrence of entangled prospects and the existence of an entangled strategic state of a decision maker or of an entangled statistical state of a measuring device

Quantum decision theory as quantum theory of measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yukalov, V.I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

We present a general theory of quantum information processing devices, that can be applied to human decision makers, to atomic multimode registers, or to molecular high-spin registers. Our quantum decision theory is a generalization of the quantum theory of measurement, endowed with an action ring, a prospect lattice and a probability operator measure. The algebra of probability operators plays the role of the algebra of local observables. Because of the composite nature of prospects and of the entangling properties of the probability operators, quantum interference terms appear, which make actions noncommutative and the prospect probabilities nonadditive. The theory provides the basis for explaining a variety of paradoxes typical of the application of classical utility theory to real human decision making. The principal advantage of our approach is that it is formulated as a self-consistent mathematical theory, which allows us to explain not just one effect but actually all known paradoxes in human decision making. Being general, the approach can serve as a tool for characterizing quantum information processing by means of atomic, molecular, and condensed-matter systems

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

2012-01-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

The utility of theory of planned behavior in predicting consistent ...

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disease. Objective: To examine the utility of theory of planned behavior in predicting consistent condom use intention of HIV .... (24-25), making subjective norms as better predictors of intention ..... Organizational Behavior and Human Decision.

Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

OpenAIRE

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

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Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

2017-04-01

Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

Basing assessment and treatment of problem behavior on behavioral momentum theory: Analyses of behavioral persistence.

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Schieltz, Kelly M; Wacker, David P; Ringdahl, Joel E; Berg, Wendy K

2017-08-01

The connection, or bridge, between applied and basic behavior analysis has been long-established (Hake, 1982; Mace & Critchfield, 2010). In this article, we describe how clinical decisions can be based more directly on behavioral processes and how basing clinical procedures on behavioral processes can lead to improved clinical outcomes. As a case in point, we describe how applied behavior analyses of maintenance, and specifically the long-term maintenance of treatment effects related to problem behavior, can be adjusted and potentially enhanced by basing treatment on Behavioral Momentum Theory. We provide a brief review of the literature including descriptions of two translational studies that proposed changes in how differential reinforcement of alternative behavior treatments are conducted based on Behavioral Momentum Theory. We then describe current clinical examples of how these translations are continuing to impact the definitions, designs, analyses, and treatment procedures used in our clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rationality, Theory Acceptance and Decision Theory

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J. Nicolas Kaufmann

1998-06-01

Full Text Available Following Kuhn's main thesis according to which theory revision and acceptance is always paradigm relative, I propose to outline some possible consequences of such a view. First, asking the question in what sense Bayesian decision theory could serve as the appropriate (normative theory of rationality examined from the point of view of the epistemology of theory acceptance, I argue that Bayesianism leads to a narrow conception of theory acceptance. Second, regarding the different types of theory revision, i.e. expansion, contraction, replacement and residuals shifts, I extract from Kuhn's view a series of indications showing that theory replacement cannot be rationalized within the framework of Bayesian decision theory, not even within a more sophisticated version of that model. Third, and finally, I will point to the need for a more comprehensive model of rationality than the Bayesian expected utility maximization model, the need for a model which could better deal with the different aspects of theory replacement. I will show that Kuhn's distinction between normal and revolutionary science gives us several hints for a more adequate theory of rationality in science. I will also show that Kuhn is not in a position to fully articulate his main ideas and that he well be confronted with a serious problem concerning collective choice of a paradigm.

The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

OpenAIRE

Mohan Pandey

2018-01-01

A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

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Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

2014-01-01

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

Statistical Decision Theory Estimation, Testing, and Selection

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Liese, Friedrich

2008-01-01

Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory

Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

OpenAIRE

Oliveira, Arnaldo

2007-01-01

This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

A study of driver's route choice behavior based on evolutionary game theory.

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Jiang, Xiaowei; Ji, Yanjie; Du, Muqing; Deng, Wei

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers' route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver's route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver's route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

1987-01-01

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

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Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

2005-04-01

Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

Theories of Health Care Decision Making at the End of Life: A Meta-Ethnography.

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Kim, Kyounghae; Heinze, Katherine; Xu, Jiayun; Kurtz, Melissa; Park, Hyunjeong; Foradori, Megan; Nolan, Marie T

2017-08-01

The aim of this meta-ethnography is to appraise the types and uses of theories relative to end-of-life decision making and to develop a conceptual framework to describe end-of-life decision making among patients with advanced cancers, heart failure, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and their caregivers or providers. We used PubMed, Embase, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases to extract English-language articles published between January 2002 and April 2015. Forty-three articles were included. The most common theories included decision-making models ( n = 14) followed by family-centered ( n = 11) and behavioral change models ( n = 7). A conceptual framework was developed using themes including context of decision making, communication and negotiation of decision making, characteristics of decision makers, goals of decision making, options and alternatives, and outcomes. Future research should enhance and apply these theories to guide research to develop patient-centered decision-making programs that facilitate informed and shared decision making at the end of life among patients with advanced illness and their caregivers.

View from Behavioral Economics Theory: Case of Latvian Rural Entrepreneurs

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Igo Cals

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The theory of classical economics treats entrepreneurs as subjects who make rational economic decisions. Empirical surveys prove the fact that daily economic decisions made by a separate economic entity can be explained by concepts of behavioral economics rather than classical economics. The economic behavior of entrepreneurs happens to be based on bounded rationality instead of financial justification. The objective of an economic activity presented as economically efficient can turn out to be socially important to a specific entrepreneur and not to national economy as a whole. In the EU countries, agriculture is a subsidised industry of national economy. In this light, status consumption and purchase of positional goods should create a special interest among economists. The objective of this article is to present true reasons of economic decisions made by rural entrepreneurs and to analyse the value hierarchy of Latvian rural entrepreneurs through carrying out a field work and with the help of set of instruments developed by modern economics theory.

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

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Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Derivative Trade Optimizing Model Utilizing GP Based on Behavioral Finance Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumura, Koki; Kawamoto, Masaru

This paper proposed a new technique which makes the strategy trees for the derivative (option) trading investment decision based on the behavioral finance theory and optimizes it using evolutionary computation, in order to achieve high profitability. The strategy tree uses a technical analysis based on a statistical, experienced technique for the investment decision. The trading model is represented by various technical indexes, and the strategy tree is optimized by the genetic programming(GP) which is one of the evolutionary computations. Moreover, this paper proposed a method using the prospect theory based on the behavioral finance theory to set psychological bias for profit and deficit and attempted to select the appropriate strike price of option for the higher investment efficiency. As a result, this technique produced a good result and found the effectiveness of this trading model by the optimized dealings strategy.

A Study of Driver’s Route Choice Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaowei Jiang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a route choice analytic method that embeds cumulative prospect theory in evolutionary game theory to analyze how the drivers adjust their route choice behaviors under the influence of the traffic information. A simulated network with two alternative routes and one variable message sign is built to illustrate the analytic method. We assume that the drivers in the transportation system are bounded rational, and the traffic information they receive is incomplete. An evolutionary game model is constructed to describe the evolutionary process of the drivers’ route choice decision-making behaviors. Here we conclude that the traffic information plays an important role in the route choice behavior. The driver’s route decision-making process develops towards different evolutionary stable states in accordance with different transportation situations. The analysis results also demonstrate that employing cumulative prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to study the driver’s route choice behavior is effective. This analytic method provides an academic support and suggestion for the traffic guidance system, and may optimize the travel efficiency to a certain extent.

INVESTMENT DEPOSITS DECISION-MAKING IN BANK: A BEHAVIORAL FINANCE PERSPECTIVE

OpenAIRE

Hanopia B.L.; Surasni N.K.; Hidayati S.A.

2018-01-01

This research was conducted using behavioral finance theories. The objectives of this research was to analyze influencing factors of investment deposits decision-making for the depositor, and to analyze the most dominant factor of investment deposits decision-making in Bank NTB of Pejanggik Principle Branches. The instrument of this research was questionnaire with the total sample of 90 respondents who were the deposit customers. The research results show that deposits’ interest, gain and cos...

Toward a Behavioral Theory of Boards and Corporate Governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ees, Hans; Gabrielsson, Jonas; Huse, Morten; Gabrielson, J.

Review A coherent alternative to an economic approach of corporate governance is missing. In this paper we take steps towards developing a behavioral theory of boards and corporate governance. Building upon concepts such as political bargaining, routinization of decision making, satisficing, and

Systematic behavior research for understanding consumer decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chin-Feng

2009-05-01

This study incorporates means-end chain (MEC) theory and dynamic programming for understanding the implications of consumer decision making. The conceptual framework of this study can help programmers design information systems for analyzing consumption behaviors. Such analyses will provide marketers with meaningful information for formulating marketing strategies. The main contributions of this article are as follows: (1) to enable researchers to obtain information for consumer cognitive hierarchies utilizing an information system, (2) to enhance the functions of traditional MEC methodology and provide an integrated method for analyzing consumption information, and (3) to construct an information system for analyzing consumer decision-making processes.

Game theory decisions, interaction and evolution

CERN Document Server

Webb, James N

2007-01-01

This introduction to game theory is written from a mathematical perspective. Its primary purpose is to be a first course for undergraduate students of mathematics, but it also contains material which will be of interest to advanced students or researchers in biology and economics. The outstanding feature of the book is that it provides a unified account of three types of decision problem: Situations involving a single decision-maker: in which a sequence of choices is to be made in "a game against nature". This introduces the basic ideas of optimality and decision processes. Classical game theory: in which the interactions of two or more decision-makers are considered. This leads to the concept of the Nash equilibrium. Evolutionary game theory: in which the changing structure of a population of interacting decision makers is considered. This leads to the ideas of evolutionarily stable strategies and replicator dynamics. An understanding of basic calculus and probability is assumed but no prior knowledge of gam...

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

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Rasiel, Emma B; Weinfurt, Kevin P; Schulman, Kevin A

2005-01-01

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

Portfolio selection between rational and behavioral theories emergent markets case

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Bouri Abdelfatteh

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of Portfolio Choice under the investors, professionals and academics’ perception. We introduce an approach based on cognitive mapping technique with a series of semi-directive interviews. Among a sample of 30 Tunisian individuals, we propose tow different frameworks: a mean-variance framework and a behavioral framework. Each framework is oriented to capture the effect of some concepts as proposed by the mean-variance portfolio theory and the behavioral portfolio theory on the portfolio choice decision. The originality of this research paper is guaranteed since it traits the behavioral portfolio choice in emergent markets. In the best of our knowledge this is the first study in the Tunisian context that explores such area of research. Ours results show that the Tunisian investors behave as it prescribed by the behavioral portfolio theory. They use some concepts proposed by the rational mean-variance theory of portfolio choice but they are affected by their emotions and some others cognitive bias when constructing and managing they portfolio of assets.

Universal prescriptivism: traditional moral decision-making theory revisited.

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Crigger, N J

1994-09-01

Universal prescriptivism is a recently developed moral decision-making theory that combines utilitarian and Kantian theories with two levels of moral thinking. A combined approach offers a creative solution to the weaknesses inherent in traditional moral theories. The paper describes the theory and discusses important implications for nursing education, practical ethical decision-making, and research. The relationship of an ethical theory of caring to traditional moral theory is discussed.

Theory of mind deficits partly mediate impaired social decision-making in schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Liuqing; Li, Peifu; Mao, Haiying; Wang, Huiling; Shu, Chang; Bliksted, Vibeke; Zhou, Yuan

2017-05-05

Using paradigms from game theory, researchers have reported abnormal decision-making in social context in patients with schizophrenia. However, less is known about the underpinnings of the impairment. This study aimed to test whether theory of mind (ToM) deficits and/or neurocognitive dysfunctions mediate impaired social decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. We compared thirty-five patients with schizophrenia to thirty-eight matched healthy controls with regard to social decision-making using the mini Ultimatum Game (mini UG), a paradigm from game theory. Additionally, we assessed ToM using the Theory of Mind Picture Stories Task, a mental state attribution task, and assessed neurocognition using the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia. Mediation analyses were performed on the data. In contrast to the behavioral pattern of healthy controls in the mini UG, the patients with schizophrenia significantly accepted more disadvantageous offers and rejected more advantageous offers, and showed reduced sensitivity to the fairness-related context changes in the mini UG. Impaired ToM and neurocognition were also found in the patients. Mediation analyses indicated that ToM but not neurocognition partially mediated the group differences on the disadvantageous and advantageous offers in the mini UG. Patients with schizophrenia exhibited impaired social decision-making. This impairment can be partly explained by their ToM deficits rather than neurocognitive deficits. However, the exact nature of the ToM deficits that mediate impaired social decision-making needs to be identified in future.

Should the model for risk-informed regulation be game theory rather than decision theory?

Science.gov (United States)

Bier, Vicki M; Lin, Shi-Woei

2013-02-01

Risk analysts frequently view the regulation of risks as being largely a matter of decision theory. According to this view, risk analysis methods provide information on the likelihood and severity of various possible outcomes; this information should then be assessed using a decision-theoretic approach (such as cost/benefit analysis) to determine whether the risks are acceptable, and whether additional regulation is warranted. However, this view ignores the fact that in many industries (particularly industries that are technologically sophisticated and employ specialized risk and safety experts), risk analyses may be done by regulated firms, not by the regulator. Moreover, those firms may have more knowledge about the levels of safety at their own facilities than the regulator does. This creates a situation in which the regulated firm has both the opportunity-and often also the motive-to provide inaccurate (in particular, favorably biased) risk information to the regulator, and hence the regulator has reason to doubt the accuracy of the risk information provided by regulated parties. Researchers have argued that decision theory is capable of dealing with many such strategic interactions as well as game theory can. This is especially true in two-player, two-stage games in which the follower has a unique best strategy in response to the leader's strategy, as appears to be the case in the situation analyzed in this article. However, even in such cases, we agree with Cox that game-theoretic methods and concepts can still be useful. In particular, the tools of mechanism design, and especially the revelation principle, can simplify the analysis of such games because the revelation principle provides rigorous assurance that it is sufficient to analyze only games in which licensees truthfully report their risk levels, making the problem more manageable. Without that, it would generally be necessary to consider much more complicated forms of strategic behavior (including

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

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John eFox

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

The Dark Side of Malleability: Incremental Theory Promotes Immoral Behaviors.

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Huang, Niwen; Zuo, Shijiang; Wang, Fang; Cai, Pan; Wang, Fengxiang

2017-01-01

Implicit theories drastically affect an individual's processing of social information, decision making, and action. The present research focuses on whether individuals who hold the implicit belief that people's moral character is fixed (entity theorists) and individuals who hold the implicit belief that people's moral character is malleable (incremental theorists) make different choices when facing a moral decision. Incremental theorists are less likely to make the fundamental attribution error (FAE), rarely make moral judgment based on traits and show more tolerance to immorality, relative to entity theorists, which might decrease the possibility of undermining the self-image when they engage in immoral behaviors, and thus we posit that incremental beliefs facilitate immorality. Four studies were conducted to explore the effect of these two types of implicit theories on immoral intention or practice. The association between implicit theories and immoral behavior was preliminarily examined from the observer perspective in Study 1, and the results showed that people tended to associate immoral behaviors (including everyday immoral intention and environmental destruction) with an incremental theorist rather than an entity theorist. Then, the relationship was further replicated from the actor perspective in Studies 2-4. In Study 2, implicit theories, which were measured, positively predicted the degree of discrimination against carriers of the hepatitis B virus. In Study 3, implicit theories were primed through reading articles, and the participants in the incremental condition showed more cheating than those in the entity condition. In Study 4, implicit theories were primed through a new manipulation, and the participants in the unstable condition (primed incremental theory) showed more discrimination than those in the other three conditions. Taken together, the results of our four studies were consistent with our hypotheses.

The Dark Side of Malleability: Incremental Theory Promotes Immoral Behaviors

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Niwen Huang

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Implicit theories drastically affect an individual’s processing of social information, decision making, and action. The present research focuses on whether individuals who hold the implicit belief that people’s moral character is fixed (entity theorists and individuals who hold the implicit belief that people’s moral character is malleable (incremental theorists make different choices when facing a moral decision. Incremental theorists are less likely to make the fundamental attribution error (FAE, rarely make moral judgment based on traits and show more tolerance to immorality, relative to entity theorists, which might decrease the possibility of undermining the self-image when they engage in immoral behaviors, and thus we posit that incremental beliefs facilitate immorality. Four studies were conducted to explore the effect of these two types of implicit theories on immoral intention or practice. The association between implicit theories and immoral behavior was preliminarily examined from the observer perspective in Study 1, and the results showed that people tended to associate immoral behaviors (including everyday immoral intention and environmental destruction with an incremental theorist rather than an entity theorist. Then, the relationship was further replicated from the actor perspective in Studies 2–4. In Study 2, implicit theories, which were measured, positively predicted the degree of discrimination against carriers of the hepatitis B virus. In Study 3, implicit theories were primed through reading articles, and the participants in the incremental condition showed more cheating than those in the entity condition. In Study 4, implicit theories were primed through a new manipulation, and the participants in the unstable condition (primed incremental theory showed more discrimination than those in the other three conditions. Taken together, the results of our four studies were consistent with our hypotheses.

Driver's Behavior and Decision-Making Optimization Model in Mixed Traffic Environment

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Xiaoyuan Wang

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Driving process is an information treating procedure going on unceasingly. It is very important for the research of traffic flow theory, to study on drivers' information processing pattern in mixed traffic environment. In this paper, bicycle is regarded as a kind of information source to vehicle drivers; the “conflict point method” is brought forward to analyze the influence of bicycles on driving behavior. The “conflict” is studied to be translated into a special kind of car-following or lane-changing process. Furthermore, the computer clocked scan step length is dropped to 0.1 s, in order to scan and analyze the dynamic (static information which influences driving behavior in a more exact way. The driver's decision-making process is described through information fusion based on duality contrast and fuzzy optimization theory. The model test and verification show that the simulation results with the “conflict point method” and the field data are consistent basically. It is feasible to imitate driving behavior and the driver information fusion process with the proposed methods. Decision-making optimized process can be described more accurately through computer precision clocked scan strategy. The study in this paper can provide the foundation for further research of multiresource information fusion process of driving behavior.

Factors Predicting Oncology Care Providers' Behavioral Intention to Adopt Clinical Decision Support Systems

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Wolfenden, Andrew

2012-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative correlation study was to examine the predictors of user behavioral intention on the decision of oncology care providers to adopt or reject the clinical decision support system. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) formed the foundation of the research model and survey instrument. The…

Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

OpenAIRE

Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

2009-01-01

Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Kontek, Krzysztof

2010-01-01

Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

Behavioral Finance in Brazil: applying the prospect theory to potential investors

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Claudia Emiko Yoshinaga

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The premise of unbounded rationality defended by the Efficient Market Hypothesis is challenged by the theoretical framework that involves Behavioral Finance, whose basis, Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory (1979, questions the Expected Utility Theory, an important element of Neoclassical Economics, as basis for decisionmaking. This research aims to replicate the empirical research of Kahneman and Tversky’s seminal article (1979 to evaluate the decisionmaking process of employees (potential investors from a major national financial institution. The results of this study were compared to those obtained in the original article and to other similar studies. The questionnaire employed was an adaptation of the one originally used, so that we could test, in the studied sample, the applicability of the Prospect Theory, more specifically with regard to Certainty, Reflection and Isolation Effects. We also analyzed differences in the decision-making process considering respondents’ attributes (gender, age and income. The results confirmed that behavioral effects do exist, and proved that a large portion of the sample presented significant inconsistency in their choices according to Expected Utility Theory principles, highlighting that their decisions were not made according to strictly rational behavior. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between violations and investor characteristics by estimating a linear model. Results indicate that both age and level of income were negatively related to total violations.

Preference reversal in quantum decision theory

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Yukalov, Vyacheslav I.; Sornette, Didier

2015-01-01

We consider the psychological effect of preference reversal and show that it finds a natural explanation in the frame of quantum decision theory. When people choose between lotteries with non-negative payoffs, they prefer a more certain lottery because of uncertainty aversion. But when people evaluate lottery prices, e.g., for selling to others the right to play them, they do this more rationally, being less subject to behavioral biases. This difference can be explained by the presence of the attraction factors entering the expression of quantum probabilities. Only the existence of attraction factors can explain why, considering two lotteries with close utility factors, a decision maker prefers one of them when choosing, but evaluates higher the other one when pricing. We derive a general quantitative criterion for the preference reversal to occur that relates the utilities of the two lotteries to the attraction factors under choosing vs. pricing and test successfully its application on experiments by Tversky et al. We also show that the planning paradox can be treated as a kind of preference reversal. PMID:26500592

The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence

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Ya Zheng

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model. Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm.

The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence

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Zheng, Ya; Yang, Zhong; Jin, Chunlan; Qi, Yue; Liu, Xun

2017-01-01

Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition) on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model). Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm. PMID:28974937

The Influence of Emotion on Fairness-Related Decision Making: A Critical Review of Theories and Evidence.

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Zheng, Ya; Yang, Zhong; Jin, Chunlan; Qi, Yue; Liu, Xun

2017-01-01

Fairness-related decision making is an important issue in the field of decision making. Traditional theories emphasize the roles of inequity aversion and reciprocity, whereas recent research increasingly shows that emotion plays a critical role in this type of decision making. In this review, we summarize the influences of three types of emotions (i.e., the integral emotion experienced at the time of decision making, the incidental emotion aroused by a task-unrelated dispositional or situational source, and the interaction of emotion and cognition) on fairness-related decision making. Specifically, we first introduce three dominant theories that describe how emotion may influence fairness-related decision making (i.e., the wounded pride/spite model, affect infusion model, and dual-process model). Next, we collect behavioral and neural evidence for and against these theories. Finally, we propose that future research on fairness-related decision making should focus on inducing incidental social emotion, avoiding irrelevant emotion when regulating, exploring the individual differences in emotional dispositions, and strengthening the ecological validity of the paradigm.

The conscious mind and its emergent properties; an analysis based on decision theory.

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Morris, James A

2011-08-01

The process of conscious and unconscious decision making is analyzed using decision theory. An essential part of an optimum decision strategy is the assessment of values and costs associated with correct and incorrect decisions. In the case of unconscious decisions this involves an automatic process akin to computation using numerical values. But for conscious decisions the conscious mind must experience the outcome of the decision as pleasure or pain. It is suggested that the rules of behavior are programmed in our genes but modified by experience of the society in which we are reared. Our unconscious then uses the rules to reward or punish our conscious mind for the decisions it makes. This is relevant to concepts of altruism and religion in society. It is consistent with the observation that we prefer beauty to utility. The decision theory equations also explain the paradox that a single index of happiness can be applied in society. The symptoms of mental illness can be due to appropriate or inappropriate action by the unconscious. The former indicates a psychological conflict between conscious and unconscious decision making. Inappropriate action indicates that a pathological process has switched on genetic networks that should be switched off. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring dietitians' salient beliefs about shared decision-making behaviors

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Gagnon Marie-Pierre

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision making (SDM, a process by which health professionals and patients go through the decision-making process together to agree on treatment, is a promising strategy for promoting diet-related decisions that are informed and value based and to which patients adhere well. The objective of the present study was to identify dietitians' salient beliefs regarding their exercise of two behaviors during the clinical encounter, both of which have been deemed essential for SDM to take place: (1 presenting patients with all dietary treatment options for a given health condition and (2 helping patients clarify their values and preferences regarding the options. Methods Twenty-one dietitians were allocated to four focus groups. Facilitators conducted the focus groups using a semistructured interview guide based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. Discussions were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, coded, and analyzed with NVivo8 (QSR International, Cambridge, MA software. Results Most participants stated that better patient adherence to treatment was an advantage of adopting the two SDM behaviors. Dietitians identified patients, physicians, and the multidisciplinary team as normative referents who would approve or disapprove of their adoption of the SDM behaviors. The most often reported barriers and facilitators for the behaviors concerned patients' characteristics, patients' clinical situation, and time. Conclusions The implementation of SDM in nutrition clinical practice can be guided by addressing dietitians' salient beliefs. Identifying these beliefs also provides the theoretical framework needed for developing a quantitative survey questionnaire to further study the determinants of dietitians' adoption of SDM behaviors.

Ethical Decision Making in Academic Dishonesty with Application of Modified Theory of Planned Behavior: A Review

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Meng, Chan Ling; Othman, Jamilah; D'Silva, Jeffrey Lawrence; Omar, Zoharah

2014-01-01

This conceptual paper studies the application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TBP) in academic dishonesty with the mediating variable of ethical ideologies. The study reviews literature on the Theory of Planned Behavior and past studies pertaining to academic dishonesty. The paper analyses the relationship of the variables of TPB on academic…

Interference and inequality in quantum decision theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheon, Taksu; Takahashi, Taiki

2010-01-01

The quantum decision theory is examined in its simplest form of two-condition two-choice setting. A set of inequalities to be satisfied by any quantum conditional probability describing the decision process is derived. Experimental data indicating the breakdown of classical explanations are critically examined with quantum theory using the full set of quantum phases.

Interference and inequality in quantum decision theory

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Cheon, Taksu, E-mail: taksu.cheon@kochi-tech.ac.j [Laboratory of Physics, Kochi University of Technology, Tosa Yamada, Kochi 782-8502 (Japan); Takahashi, Taiki, E-mail: ttakahashi@lynx.let.hokudai.ac.j [Laboratory of Social Psychology, Department of Behavioral Science, Faculty of Letters, Hokkaido University, N.10, W.7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0810 (Japan)

2010-12-01

The quantum decision theory is examined in its simplest form of two-condition two-choice setting. A set of inequalities to be satisfied by any quantum conditional probability describing the decision process is derived. Experimental data indicating the breakdown of classical explanations are critically examined with quantum theory using the full set of quantum phases.

Ethical behavior of nurses in decision-making in Iran.

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Ebrahimi, Hossein; Nikravesh, Mansoure; Oskouie, Fatemeh; Ahmadi, Fazlollah

2015-01-01

Ethical caring is an essential in nursing practice. Nurses are confronted with complex situations in which they are expected to autonomously make decisions in delivering good care to patients. Although a wide range of studies have examined ethical behavior of nurses, there are still many issues requiring further investigation. The aim of this article is to describe the ethical behavior of nurses in decision-making in patients' care in Iran. This study was conducted through grounded theory method. Participants were 17 Iranian nurses, employed in Tabriz University of Medical Sciences hospitals. Unstructured, semi-structured, and in-depth interviews were used for data gathering. Interviews were transcribed and coded according to Strauss and Corbin method in open, axial, and selective coding. Nurses showed three major approaches in ethical behavior: Beyond the legal duty and protection of the patients, which includes dedication and full availability to nurses' job and the client, spending time for the patients and delayed exit from the workplace, and arbitrary practice; legal duty and the protection of patients and nurses, which includes caretaking for the patient, responding to the client, and implementing the physician's prescription; and below the legal duty and the protection of one's self, that is, finding evidence and having witness in case of false documentation, and shortcoming, negligence, and mistake. Because of the importance of the ethical behavior of nurses in decision-making, it is necessary to find ways to promote moral reasoning and moral development of nurses. Empowerment of nurses, nurse educators, and nursing students to acquire knowledge and develop ethical behavior skills is important.

Bureaucratic Minimal Squawk Behavior: Theory and Evidence from Regulatory Agencies

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Clare Leaver

2009-01-01

This paper argues that bureaucrats are susceptible to `minimal squawk` behavior. I develop a simple model in which a desire to avoid criticism can prompt, otherwise public-spirited, bureaucrats to behave inefficiently. Decisions are taken to keep interest groups quiet and mistakes out of the public eye. The policy implications of this behavior are at odds with the received view that agencies should be structured to minimise the threat of `capture`. I test between theories of bureaucratic beha...

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

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Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards

Beliefs Underlying the Decision to Eat Breakfast: The Role of Theory-based Behavioral Analysis in the Development of Policy, Communication and Educational Interventions for Healthy Eating.

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Middlestadt, Susan E; Stevenson, Laurel D; Hung, Chia-Ling; Roditis, Maria Leia; Fly, Alyce D; Sheats, Jylana L

2011-01-01

Policy, communication, and education efforts to influence any social or health outcome are more effective if based on an understanding of the underlying behaviors and their determinants. This conceptual paper outlines how behavioral theory can help design interventions for one healthy eating behavior, eating breakfast. More specifically, the paper illustrates how a prominent health behavior theory, the Reasoned Action Approach, can be used to guide formative research to identify factors underlying people's decisions. Select findings are presented from three studies of beliefs underlying eating breakfast: online surveys with 1185 undergraduates from a large university in Indiana; in-depth interviews with 61 adults from four Indiana worksites; and 63 in-depth interviews with students from three middle schools in rural Indiana. Analyses of data from the undergraduates demonstrated the role of self-efficacy. Analyses of data from the working adults revealed the importance of normative beliefs about what employers believed. Analyses comparing consequences perceived by adults with those perceived by middle school students found that both groups believed that eating breakfast would provide energy but only middle school students believed that eating breakfast would improve alertness. For each finding, the theory is presented, the finding is described, implications for interventions are suggested, and the need for additional research is outlined. In sum, theory-based behavioral research can help develop interventions at intrapersonal, interpersonal, and environmental levels that are warranted to encourage healthy eating.

An empirical test of the decision to lie component of the Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT).

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Masip, Jaume; Blandón-Gitlin, Iris; de la Riva, Clara; Herrero, Carmen

2016-09-01

Meta-analyses reveal that behavioral differences between liars and truth tellers are small. To facilitate lie detection, researchers are currently developing interviewing approaches to increase these differences. Some of these approaches assume that lying is cognitively more difficult than truth telling; however, they are not based on specific cognitive theories of lie production, which are rare. Here we examined one existing theory, Walczyk et al.'s (2014) Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT). We tested the Decision component. According to ADCAT, people decide whether to lie or tell the truth as if they were using a specific mathematical formula to calculate the motivation to lie from (a) the probability of a number of outcomes derived from lying vs. telling the truth, and (b) the costs/benefits associated with each outcome. In this study, participants read several hypothetical scenarios and indicated whether they would lie or tell the truth in each scenario (Questionnaire 1). Next, they answered several questions about the consequences of lying vs. telling the truth in each scenario, and rated the probability and valence of each consequence (Questionnaire 2). Significant associations were found between the participants' dichotomous decision to lie/tell the truth in Questionnaire 1 and their motivation to lie scores calculated from the Questionnaire 2 data. However, interestingly, whereas the expected consequences of truth telling were associated with the decision to lie vs. tell the truth, the expected consequences of lying were not. Suggestions are made to refine ADCAT, which can be a useful theoretical framework to guide deception research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

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Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

2016-01-01

The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

Proxy decision making and dementia: Using Construal Level Theory to analyse the thoughts of decision makers.

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Convey, Helen; Holt, Janet; Summers, Barbara

2018-03-08

This study explored the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to analyse proxy decision maker thinking about a hypothetical ethical dilemma, relating to a person who has dementia. Proxy decision makers make decisions on behalf of individuals who are living with dementia when dementia affects that individual's decision making ability. Ethical dilemmas arise because there is a need to balance the individual's past and contemporary values and views. Understanding of how proxy decision makers respond is incomplete. Construal Level Theory contends that individuals imagine reactions and make predications about the future by crossing psychological distance. This involves abstract thinking, giving meaning to decisions. There is no empirical evidence of Construal Level Theory being used to analyse proxy decision maker thinking. Exploring the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to understand dementia carer thinking regarding proxy decisions may provide insights which inform the support given. Descriptive qualitative research with semi-structured interviews. Seven participants were interviewed using a hypothetical dementia care scenario in February 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed for themes. Construal Level Theory was applied to analyse participant responses within themes using the Linguistic Category Model. Participants travelled across psychological distance, using abstract thinking to clarify goals and provide a basis for decisions. When thinking concretely participants established boundaries regarding the ethical dilemma. Construal Level Theory gives insight into proxy decision maker thinking and the levels of abstraction used. Understanding what dementia carers think about when making proxy decisions may help nurses to understand their perspectives and to provide appropriate support. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advances in the application of decision theory to test-based decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, Willem J.

This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical

Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.

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Frisch, D; Clemen, R T

1994-07-01

Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.

Fertility intentions: An approach based on the theory of planned behavior

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Icek Aizen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE To discuss issues and concerns in the application of the theory of planned behavior (TPB to the decision to have a child. METHODS We review the basic structure of the TPB, its principles, and its assumptions as they apply to fertility decisions. Among other issues we consider attitudes, subjective norms, and perceptions of control as antecedents to the decision to have a child; the expectancy-value model for understanding the formation of these antecedents; and the role of background factors, such as institutional policies, societal values, and personal characteristics. We illustrate key elements of the TPB using results from a multinational research project and end by considering a number of open questions for TPB-guided fertility research. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that the TPB can usefully be employed to further our understanding of fertility decisions. By examining behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about having a child we can identify important considerations that influence this decision. The information obtained can also guide adoption of policies or interventions designed to encourage (or discourage couples to have more children.

Prospect theory, reference points, and health decisions

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Alan Schwartz

2008-02-01

Full Text Available In preventative health decisions, such as the decision to undergo an invasive screening test or treatment, people may be deterred from selecting the test because its perceived disutility relative to not testing is greater than the utility associated with prevention of possible disease. The prospect theory editing operation, by which a decision maker's reference point is determined, can have important effects on the disutility of the test. On the basis of the prospect theory value function, this paper develops two approaches to reducing disutility by directing the decision maker's attention to either (actual past or (expected future losses that result in shifted reference points. After providing a graphical description of the approaches and a mathematical proof of the direction of their effect on judgment, we briefly illustrate the potential value of these approaches with examples from qualitative research on prostate cancer treatment decisions.

INVESTMENT DEPOSITS DECISION-MAKING IN BANK: A BEHAVIORAL FINANCE PERSPECTIVE

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Hanopia B.L.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This research was conducted using behavioral finance theories. The objectives of this research was to analyze influencing factors of investment deposits decision-making for the depositor, and to analyze the most dominant factor of investment deposits decision-making in Bank NTB of Pejanggik Principle Branches. The instrument of this research was questionnaire with the total sample of 90 respondents who were the deposit customers. The research results show that deposits’ interest, gain and cost, feelings of disappointment and satisfaction, worries, reluctances, good companies, budget allocation, self-control, net interest income, belief in net interest income, overestimate and underestimate are factors influencing investment deposits decision-making in Bank NTB of Pejanggik Principle Branches. Dominant factors determining investment deposits decision-making are deposits cost, interest and feelings of satisfaction, budget allocation, overestimate and self-control. Those factors are included in the factor group of deposits cost.

The effect of (negative) emotion on pro-environmental behavior : an application of the theory of planned behavior

OpenAIRE

Gibson, Ben

2016-01-01

With climate change becoming ever-present as a huge environmental issue for the modern era to address, pro-environmental behavior (PEB) is becoming an increasingly relevant area. There seems to be a divergence between how different actors try and encourage PEB when using emotion as the motivational tool. Therefore, the current study aimed to explore this effect of (negative) emotion on decision making. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was used as the theoretical framework, with the primar...

Theory of Planned Behavior in the Classroom: An Examination of the Instructor Confirmation-Interaction Model

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Burns, Michael E.; Houser, Marian L.; Farris, Kristen LeBlanc

2018-01-01

The current study utilizes the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes," 50, 179-211 Ajzen 1991) to examine an instructor confirmation-interaction model in the instructional communication context to discover a means by which instructors might cultivate positive student attitudes and…

Scoring and Classifying Examinees Using Measurement Decision Theory

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Lawrence M. Rudner

2009-04-01

Full Text Available This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1 the classification accuracy of tests scored using decision theory; (2 the effectiveness of different sequential testing procedures; and (3 the number of items needed to make a classification. A large percentage of examinees can be classified accurately with very few items using decision theory. A Java Applet for self instruction and software for generating, calibrating and scoring MDT data are provided.

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

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Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deviant Peer Behavior and Adolescent Delinquency: Protective Effects of Inhibitory Control, Planning, or Decision Making?

Science.gov (United States)

Hinnant, J Benjamin; Forman-Alberti, Alissa B

2018-05-09

We examined relations between adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior and delinquency as moderated by inhibitory control, planning, and decision making in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development at age 15 (N = 991). Adolescents reported perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Inhibitory control, planning, and decision making were assessed behaviorally. Delinquency was evaluated with a latent variable comprised of parent-guardian perceptions of adolescent delinquency and adolescent self-reports. Only inhibitory control moderated the relationship between deviant peer behavior and delinquency, showing that better inhibition protected against delinquency in contexts of high levels of adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Findings are discussed in the context of theories of adolescent delinquency and risk taking. © 2018 Society for Research on Adolescence.

Health education and multimedia learning: educational psychology and health behavior theory (Part 1).

Science.gov (United States)

Mas, Francisco G Soto; Plass, Jan; Kane, William M; Papenfuss, Richard L

2003-07-01

When health education researchers began to investigate how individuals make decisions related to health and the factors that influence health behaviors, they referred to frameworks shared by educational and learning research. Health education adopted the basic principles of the cognitive revolution, which were instrumental in advancing the field. There is currently a new challenge to confront: the widespread use of new technologies for health education. To better overcome this challenge, educational psychology and instructional technology theory should be considered. Unfortunately, the passion to incorporate new technologies too often overshadows how people learn or, in particular, how people learn through computer technologies. This two-part article explains how educational theory contributed to the early development of health behavior theory, describes the most relevant multimedia learning theories and constructs, and provides recommendations for developing multimedia health education programs and connecting theory and practice.

Motivation, working memory, and decision making: a cognitive-motivational theory of personality vulnerability to alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Finn, Peter R

2002-09-01

This article presents a cognitive-motivational theory (CMT) of the mechanisms associated with three basic dimensions of personality vulnerability to alcoholism, impulsivity/novelty seeking, harm avoidance, and excitement seeking. CMT describes the interrelationships between activity in basic motivational systems and attentional, decision-making and working memory processes as the mechanisms associated with variation in each personality trait. Impulsivity/novelty seeking reflects activity in both appetitive and inhibitory motivational systems, greater attention to reward cues, and increased emotional reactivity to reward and frustration. Harm avoidance reflects individual differences in fearfulness and activity in specific inhibitory systems. Excitement seeking reflects the need to engage in appetitive behaviors in less predictable environments to experience positive affect. CMT also describes the impact of working memory and the specific motivational processes underlying each trait dimension on the dynamics of decision making from the perspective of decision field theory.

Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

2006-09-01

conditions), adolescents are capable of rational decision making to achieve their goals. In practice, much depends on the particular situation in which a decision is made. In the heat of passion, in the presence of peers, on the spur of the moment, in unfamiliar situations, when trading off risks and benefits favors bad long-term outcomes, and when behavioral inhibition is required for good outcomes, adolescents are likely to reason more poorly than adults do. Brain maturation in adolescence is incomplete. Impulsivity, sensation seeking, thrill seeking, depression, and other individual differences also contribute to risk taking that resists standard risk-reduction interventions, although some conditions such as depression can be effectively treated with other approaches. Major explanatory models of risky decision making can be roughly divided into (a) those, including health-belief models and the theory of planned behavior, that adhere to a "rational" behavioral decision-making framework that stresses deliberate, quantitative trading off of risks and benefits; and (b) those that emphasize nondeliberative reaction to the perceived gists or prototypes in the immediate decision environment. (A gist is a fuzzy mental representation of the general meaning of information or experience; a prototype is a mental representation of a standard or typical example of a category.) Although perceived risks and especially benefits predict behavioral intentions and risk-taking behavior, behavioral willingness is an even better predictor of susceptibility to risk taking-and has unique explanatory power-because adolescents are willing to do riskier things than they either intend or expect to do. Dual-process models, such as the prototype/willingness model and fuzzy-trace theory, identify two divergent paths to risk taking: a reasoned and a reactive route. Such models explain apparent contradictions in the literature, including different causes of risk taking for different individuals

Hesitant Fuzzy Thermodynamic Method for Emergency Decision Making Based on Prospect Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Peijia; Xu, Zeshui; Hao, Zhinan

2017-09-01

Due to the timeliness of emergency response and much unknown information in emergency situations, this paper proposes a method to deal with the emergency decision making, which can comprehensively reflect the emergency decision making process. By utilizing the hesitant fuzzy elements to represent the fuzziness of the objects and the hesitant thought of the experts, this paper introduces the negative exponential function into the prospect theory so as to portray the psychological behaviors of the experts, which transforms the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix into the hesitant fuzzy prospect decision matrix (HFPDM) according to the expectation-levels. Then, this paper applies the energy and the entropy in thermodynamics to take the quantity and the quality of the decision values into account, and defines the thermodynamic decision making parameters based on the HFPDM. Accordingly, a whole procedure for emergency decision making is conducted. What is more, some experiments are designed to demonstrate and improve the validation of the emergency decision making procedure. Last but not the least, this paper makes a case study about the emergency decision making in the firing and exploding at Port Group in Tianjin Binhai New Area, which manifests the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Bayesian decision theory : A simple toy problem

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2016-01-01

We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Decision and game theory in management with intuitionistic fuzzy sets

CERN Document Server

Li, Deng-Feng

2014-01-01

The focus of this book is on establishing theories and methods of both decision and game analysis in management using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. It proposes a series of innovative theories, models and methods such as the representation theorem and extension principle of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, ranking methods of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, non-linear and linear programming methods for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making and (interval-valued) intuitionistic fuzzy matrix games. These theories and methods form the theory system of intuitionistic fuzzy decision making and games, which is not only remarkably different from those of the traditional, Bayes and/or fuzzy decision theory but can also provide an effective and efficient tool for solving complex management problems. Since there is a certain degree of inherent hesitancy in real-life management, which cannot always be described by the traditional mathematical methods and/or fuzzy set theory, this book offers an effective approach to us...

Analysis of Health Behavior Theories for Clustering of Health Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Seung Hee; Duffy, Sonia A

The objective of this article was to review the utility of established behavior theories, including the Health Belief Model, Theory of Reasoned Action, Theory of Planned Behavior, Transtheoretical Model, and Health Promotion Model, for addressing multiple health behaviors among people who smoke. It is critical to design future interventions for multiple health behavior changes tailored to individuals who currently smoke, yet it has not been addressed. Five health behavior theories/models were analyzed and critically evaluated. A review of the literature included a search of PubMed and Google Scholar from 2010 to 2016. Two hundred sixty-seven articles (252 studies from the initial search and 15 studies from the references of initially identified studies) were included in the analysis. Most of the health behavior theories/models emphasize psychological and cognitive constructs that can be applied only to one specific behavior at a time, thus making them not suitable to address multiple health behaviors. However, the Health Promotion Model incorporates "related behavior factors" that can explain multiple health behaviors among persons who smoke. Future multiple behavior interventions guided by the Health Promotion Model are necessary to show the utility and applicability of the model to address multiple health behaviors.

User-Generated Content and travel planning: An application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Augusto Machado Mendes Filho

2012-12-01

Full Text Available User-Generated Content (UGC such as online travel reviews written by travelers and posted to virtual communities are being used more frequently to communicate travel-related information. UGC is therefore helping travelers to make decisions about their travel. Utilizing the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, which is one of the most comprehensive models explaining behavioral intention, this study contributes to the further development of theories of online consumer behavior by determining which factors are most important in relation to the use of UGC in the travel industry. The TPB has three independent determinants of behavioral intention: attitude toward the behavior, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control. Therefore the aim of this paper is to examine the roles of attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavior control in respect of travelers’ intention to use UGC when making travel plans.

Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

Fundamentals of the fuzzy logic-based generalized theory of decisions

CERN Document Server

Aliev, Rafik Aziz

2013-01-01

Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than comput...

Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Favre, Maroussia; Wittwer, Amrei; Heinimann, Hans Rudolf; Yukalov, Vyacheslav I; Sornette, Didier

2016-01-01

Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains.

Traditional finance : behavioral finance distinction in the context of expected utility and prospect theories

OpenAIRE

Tekin, Bilgehan

2016-01-01

Traditional finance has developed based on two fundamental assumptions, including the expected utility theory and rational choice or decision. However, this hypothesis has been criticized heavily by put forward that are not realistic enough. The basis of behavioral finance theory is based on the “prospect theory”. According to this theory individuals cannot act fully rational, they install more sense to loses than at the same amount of profit and they exhibit risk and loss aversion behaviour....

Nash Equilibria in Theory of Reasoned Action

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Leando; Cruz, José; Ferreira, Helena; Pinto, Alberto Adrego

2009-08-01

Game theory and Decision Theory have been applied to many different areas such as Physics, Economics, Biology, etc. In its application to Psychology, we introduce, in the literature, a Game Theoretical Model of Planned Behavior or Reasoned Action by establishing an analogy between two specific theories. In this study we take in account that individual decision-making is an outcome of a process where group decisions can determine individual probabilistic behavior. Using Game Theory concepts, we describe how intentions can be transformed in behavior and according to the Nash Equilibrium, this process will correspond to the best individual decision/response taking in account the collective response. This analysis can be extended to several examples based in the Game Theoretical Model of Planned Behavior or Reasoned Action.

Constructing food choice decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

2009-12-01

Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

CERN Document Server

Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

2007-01-01

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-28

The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

OpenAIRE

Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2008-01-01

The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

Justifying Design Decisions with Theory-based Design Principles

OpenAIRE

Schermann, Michael;Gehlert, Andreas;Pohl, Klaus;Krcmar, Helmut

2014-01-01

Although the role of theories in design research is recognized, we show that little attention has been paid on how to use theories when designing new artifacts. We introduce design principles as a new methodological approach to address this problem. Design principles extend the notion of design rationales that document how a design decision emerged. We extend the concept of design rationales by using theoretical hypotheses to support or object to design decisions. At the example of developing...

Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices

Science.gov (United States)

Favre, Maroussia; Wittwer, Amrei; Heinimann, Hans Rudolf; Yukalov, Vyacheslav I.; Sornette, Didier

2016-01-01

Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker’s choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains. PMID:27936217

Intentions and plans in decision and game theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Hees, M.; Roy, O.; Verbeek, B.

2008-01-01

Given the important role that intentions play in the way we make decisions, we would expect intentions to occupy a substantial place in any theory of action. Surprisingly enough, in what is perhaps the most influential theory of action, rational choice theory, explicit reference is made to actions,

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

Combining Theory of Institutional Logics and Theory of Justification in Understanding Ambiguous Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westenholz, Ann

I propose to understand decision making by combining theory of institutional logics (Friedland; Thornton, Ocasio & Lounsbury) and theory of justification (Boltanski and Thévenot). These two theoretical approaches are different but, at the same time, deal with the socially constructed plurality...... companies have located part of their business in Denmark. Finally I conclude and discuss why theory of institutional logics needs theory of justification and vice versa....... of the world nesting a macro-meso-micro level analysis. My argument is that both theories may learn from each other and enrich the study of ambiguous decision making. In the paper I describe, compare and combine the two theoretical approaches. I then illustrate the combined approach by a case where Chinese...

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict Aggression and Weapons Carrying in Urban African American Early Adolescent Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Finigan-Carr, Nadine M.; Cheng, Tina L.; Gielen, Andrea; Haynie, Denise L.; Simons-Morton, Bruce

2015-01-01

Aggressive and weapons carrying behaviors are indicative of youth violence. The theory of planned behavior is used in the current analysis to improve our understanding of violence-related behaviors. We examine the influence of perceived behavioral control (self-control and decision making) as a part of the overall framework for understanding the…

Behavioral momentum theory: equations and applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Nevin, John A; Shahan, Timothy A

2011-01-01

Behavioral momentum theory provides a quantitative account of how reinforcers experienced within a discriminative stimulus context govern the persistence of behavior that occurs in that context. The theory suggests that all reinforcers obtained in the presence of a discriminative stimulus increase resistance to change, regardless of whether those reinforcers are contingent on the target behavior, are noncontingent, or are even contingent on an alternative behavior. In this paper, we describe the equations that constitute the theory and address their application to issues of particular importance in applied settings. The theory provides a framework within which to consider the effects of interventions such as extinction, noncontingent reinforcement, differential reinforcement of alternative behavior, and other phenomena (e.g., resurgence). Finally, the theory predicts some counterintuitive and potentially counterproductive effects of alternative reinforcement, and can serve as an integrative guide for intervention when its terms are identified with the relevant conditions of applied settings.

Emotions and Behavior Regulation in Decision Dilemmas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquin Gómez-Miñambres

2017-05-01

Full Text Available We introduce a dynamic model of emotional behavior regulation that can generalize to a wide range of decision dilemmas. Dilemmas are characterized by availability of mutually exclusive goals that a decision maker is dually motivated to pursue. In our model, previous goal pursuant decisions produce negative emotions that regulate an individual’s propensity to further pursue those goals at future times. This emotional regulation of behavior helps explain the non-stationarity and switching observed between so-called “preferences” revealed in repeated decision dilemmas (e.g., by choosing A over B at time 1, then choosing B over A at time 2. We also explain how behavior regulation under dilemma conditions is affected by the set of available options and how the strength and decay rate of emotions affect the tendency to choose behaviors pursuant of extremely (rather than moderately different options over time. We discuss how emotional behavior regulation insights provided by our model can extend to a variety of topics including approach and avoidance, temptation and self-control, moral balancing, impulse buying and shopping momentum, dieting and exercise, work and leisure, sleep regulation, cooperation, and competition.

A system dynamics model of clinical decision thresholds for the detection of developmental-behavioral disorders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Christopher Sheldrick

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical decision-making has been conceptualized as a sequence of two separate processes: assessment of patients’ functioning and application of a decision threshold to determine whether the evidence is sufficient to justify a given decision. A range of factors, including use of evidence-based screening instruments, has the potential to influence either or both processes. However, implementation studies seldom specify or assess the mechanism by which screening is hypothesized to influence clinical decision-making, thus limiting their ability to address unexpected findings regarding clinicians’ behavior. Building on prior theory and empirical evidence, we created a system dynamics (SD model of how physicians’ clinical decisions are influenced by their assessments of patients and by factors that may influence decision thresholds, such as knowledge of past patient outcomes. Using developmental-behavioral disorders as a case example, we then explore how referral decisions may be influenced by changes in context. Specifically, we compare predictions from the SD model to published implementation trials of evidence-based screening to understand physicians’ management of positive screening results and changes in referral rates. We also conduct virtual experiments regarding the influence of a variety of interventions that may influence physicians’ thresholds, including improved access to co-located mental health care and improved feedback systems regarding patient outcomes. Results Results of the SD model were consistent with recent implementation trials. For example, the SD model suggests that if screening improves physicians’ accuracy of assessment without also influencing decision thresholds, then a significant proportion of children with positive screens will not be referred and the effect of screening implementation on referral rates will be modest—results that are consistent with a large proportion of published

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

An economic theory of patient decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

2005-01-01

Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

1998-09-01

Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, H R

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelarosa Longo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the modeler. Behavioral Operational Research (BOR studies these influences to create efficient models to define choices in similar decision processes.

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

The attitude-behavior discrepancy in medical decision making.

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He, Fei; Li, Dongdong; Cao, Rong; Zeng, Juli; Guan, Hao

2014-12-01

In medical practice, the dissatisfaction of patients about medical decisions made by doctors is often regarded as the fuse of doctor-patient conflict. However, a few studies have looked at why there are such dissatisfactions. This experimental study aimed to explore the discrepancy between attitude and behavior within medical situations and its interaction with framing description. A total of 450 clinical undergraduates were randomly assigned to six groups and investigated using the classic medical decision making problem, which was described either in a positive or a negative frame (2) × decision making behavior\\attitude to risky plan\\attitude to conservative plan (3). A discrepancy between attitude and behavior did exist in medical situations. Regarding medical dilemmas, if the mortality rate was described, subjects had a significant tendency to choose a conservative plan (t = 3.55, P 0.05). However, regardless of the plan chosen by the doctor, the subjects had a significant opposing attitude (P Framing description had a significant impact on both decision making behavior and attitude (t behavior = -3.24, P framing of a description has an impact on medical decision-making.

Changing delay discounting in the light of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory: a review.

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Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Jarmolowicz, David P; Mueller, E Terry; Bickel, Warren K

2013-01-01

Excessively devaluing delayed reinforcers co-occurs with a wide variety of clinical conditions such as drug dependence, obesity, and excessive gambling. If excessive delay discounting is a trans-disease process that underlies the choice behavior leading to these and other negative health conditions, efforts to change an individual's discount rate are arguably important. Although discount rate is often regarded as a relatively stable trait, descriptions of interventions and environmental manipulations that successfully alter discount rate have begun to appear in the literature. In this review, we compare published examples of procedures that change discount rate and classify them into categories of procedures, including therapeutic interventions, direct manipulation of the executive decision-making system, framing effects, physiological state effects, and acute drug effects. These changes in discount rate are interpreted from the perspective of the competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory, which describes a combination of neurological and behavioral processes that account for delay discounting. We also suggest future directions that researchers could take to identify the mechanistic processes that allow for changes in discount rate and to test whether the competing neurobehavioral decision systems view of delay discounting is correct. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Decision-making regarding organ donation in Korean adults: A grounded-theory study.

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Yeun, Eun Ja; Kwon, Young Mi; Kim, Jung A

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to identify the hidden patterns of behavior leading toward the decision to donate organs. Thirteen registrants at the Association for Organ Sharing in Korea were recruited. Data were collected using in-depth interview and the interview transcripts were analyzed using Glaserian grounded-theory methodology. The main problem of participants was "body attachment" and the core category (management process) was determined to be "pursuing life." The theme consisted of four phases, which were: "hesitating," "investigating," "releasing," and "re-discovering. " Therefore, to increase organ donations, it is important to find a strategy that will create positive attitudes about organ donation through education and public relations. These results explain and provide a deeper understanding of the main problem that Korean people have about organ donation and their management of decision-making processes. These findings can help care providers to facilitate the decision-making process and respond to public needs while taking into account the sociocultural context within which decisions are made. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Group Decisions in Biodiversity Conservation: Implications from Game Theory

OpenAIRE

Frank, David M.; Sarkar, Sahotra

2010-01-01

Background Decision analysis and game theory [1], [2] have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts [3]?[5]. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto?inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self?interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes....

Behavioral economic insights into physician tobacco treatment decision-making.

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Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-03-01

Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.

Behavioral Economic Insights into Physician Tobacco Treatment Decision-Making

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Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-01-01

Rationale: Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in “next steps” consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Objective: Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Methods: Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of “success” probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Conclusions: Important presuppositions regarding the potential “success” of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors. PMID:25664676

Behavioral Economics: A New Lens for Understanding Genomic Decision Making.

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Moore, Scott Emory; Ulbrich, Holley H; Hepburn, Kenneth; Holaday, Bonnie; Mayo, Rachel; Sharp, Julia; Pruitt, Rosanne H

2018-05-01

This article seeks to take the next step in examining the insights that nurses and other healthcare providers can derive from applying behavioral economic concepts to support genomic decision making. As genomic science continues to permeate clinical practice, nurses must continue to adapt practice to meet new challenges. Decisions associated with genomics are often not simple and dichotomous in nature. They can be complex and challenging for all involved. This article offers an introduction to behavioral economics as a possible tool to help support patients', families', and caregivers' decision making related to genomics. Using current writings from nursing, ethics, behavioral economic, and other healthcare scholars, we review key concepts of behavioral economics and discuss their relevance to supporting genomic decision making. Behavioral economic concepts-particularly relativity, deliberation, and choice architecture-are specifically examined as new ways to view the complexities of genomic decision making. Each concept is explored through patient decision making and clinical practice examples. This article also discusses next steps and practice implications for further development of the behavioral economic lens in nursing. Behavioral economics provides valuable insight into the unique nature of genetic decision-making practices. Nurses are often a source of information and support for patients during clinical decision making. This article seeks to offer behavioral economic concepts as a framework for understanding and examining the unique nature of genomic decision making. As genetic and genomic testing become more common in practice, it will continue to grow in importance for nurses to be able to support the autonomous decision making of patients, their families, and caregivers. © 2018 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Learning a decision maker's utility function from (possibly) inconsistent behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jensen, Finn Verner

2004-01-01

developed for learning the probabilities from a database.However, methods for learning the utilities have only received limitedattention in the computer science community. A promising approach for learning a decision maker's utility function is to takeoutset in the decision maker's observed behavioral...... patterns, and then find autility function which (together with a domain model) can explainthis behavior. That is, it is assumed that decision maker's preferences arereflected in the behavior. Standard learning algorithmsalso assume that the decision maker is behavioralconsistent, i.e., given a model ofthe...... decision problem, there exists a utility function which canaccount for all the observed behavior. Unfortunately, this assumption israrely valid in real-world decision problems, and in these situationsexisting learning methods may only identify a trivial utilityfunction. In this paper we relax...

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

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Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elwyn, G.; Stiel, M.; Durand, M.A.; Boivin, J.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a

Validating the predictions of case-based decision theory

OpenAIRE

Radoc, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Real-life decision-makers typically do not know all possible outcomes arising from alternative courses of action. Instead, when people face a problem, they may rely on the recollection of their past personal experience: the situation, the action taken, and the accompanying consequence. In addition, the applicability of a past experience in decision-making may depend on how similar the current problem is to situations encountered previously. Case-based decision theory (CBDT), proposed by Itzha...

Decision theory with resource-bounded agents.

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Halpern, Joseph Y; Pass, Rafael; Seeman, Lior

2014-04-01

There have been two major lines of research aimed at capturing resource-bounded players in game theory. The first, initiated by Rubinstein (), charges an agent for doing costly computation; the second, initiated by Neyman (), does not charge for computation, but limits the computation that agents can do, typically by modeling agents as finite automata. We review recent work on applying both approaches in the context of decision theory. For the first approach, we take the objects of choice in a decision problem to be Turing machines, and charge players for the "complexity" of the Turing machine chosen (e.g., its running time). This approach can be used to explain well-known phenomena like first-impression-matters biases (i.e., people tend to put more weight on evidence they hear early on) and belief polarization (two people with different prior beliefs, hearing the same evidence, can end up with diametrically opposed conclusions) as the outcomes of quite rational decisions. For the second approach, we model people as finite automata, and provide a simple algorithm that, on a problem that captures a number of settings of interest, provably performs optimally as the number of states in the automaton increases. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Toward a Theory of Entrepreneurial Behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Teague, Bruce T.; Gartner, Bill

2017-01-01

The chapter reviews several of the most prominent entrepreneurship frameworks to demonstrate that the entrepreneurship field lacks a theory of entrepreneurial behavior. However, each of these existing frameworks would benefit from, and be complemented by, an entrepreneurial behavioral theory. Dra...

Leaving an Abusive Dating Relationship: A Prospective Analysis of the Investment Model and Theory of Planned Behavior.

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Edwards, Katie M; Gidycz, Christine A; Murphy, Megan J

2015-10-01

The purpose of the current study was to build on the existing literature to better understand young women's leaving processes in abusive dating relationships using a prospective design. Two social psychological models-the investment model and theory of planned behavior-were tested. According to the investment model, relationship continuation is predicted by commitment, which is a function of investment, satisfaction, and low quality of alternatives. The theory of planned behavior asserts that a specific behavior is predicted by an individual's intention to use a behavior, which is a function of the individual's attitudes toward the behavior, the subjective norms toward the behavior, and the individual's perceived behavioral control over the behavior. College women (N = 169 young women in abusive relatinships) completed surveys at two time points, approximately 4 months apart, to assess initially for the presence of intimate partner violence (IPV) in a current relationship and investment model and theory of planned behavior variables; the purpose of the 4-month follow-up session was to determine if women had remained in or terminated their abusive relationship. Path analytic results demonstrated that both the theory of planned behavior and investment models were good fits to the data in prospectively predicting abused women's stay/leave decisions. However, the theory of planned behavior was a better fit to the data than the investment model. Implications for future research and intervention are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK EXAMINING THE ANTECEDENTS OF CAREER DECISIVENESS USING MOTIVATION SYSTEMS THEORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Srabasti CHATTERJEE

2013-10-01

Full Text Available An extensive body of vocational research has been dedicated to the topic of career-decision making behavior. Work is integral to human functioning, and all psychologists need to understand the role of work in people’s lives. Understanding factors influencing work choices and helping individuals effectively make career decisions is the focus of vocational psychologists. The external changes, such as shifts in the economy and labour force, as well as initiatives within the field are challenging the assumptions within vocational psychology. Under such circumstances, it becomes more important to study career decisiveness and more importantly examine the process of career planning which eventually leads to career decisiveness. So there is a need to assess attitudes, expectations, and emotions about one’s career in the form of Career Future Inventory to measure career choice or career decisiveness. Career decisiveness (CD has been an instrumental tool for vocational psychologists and a phenomenon of interest to parents, faculty, school counsellors, and others who advise young adults on their career choices. The current study shall investigate the antecedents and consequences of career decisiveness using the Motivational Systems Theory (MST. The major rational of applying MST is to understand career choice has its impetus both on the individual and contextual factors.

Evaluating the role of behavioral factors and practical constraints in the performance of an agent-based model of farmer decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John

2016-01-01

Farmer decision making models often focus on the behavioral assumptions in the representation of the decision making, applying bounded rationality theory to shift away from the generally criticized profit maximizer approach. Although complex on the behavioral side, such representations are usually...... simplistic with respect to the available choice options in farmer decision making and practical constraints related to farming decisions. To ascertain the relevance of modeling different facets of farmer decision making, we developed an agent based model of farmer decision making on crop choice, fertilizer...... and pesticide usage using an existing economic farm optimization model. We then gradually modified the model to include practical agronomic constraints and assumptions reflecting bounded rationality, and assessed the explanatory power of the added model components. The assessments were based on comparisons...

Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model

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Kou, Meng; Lu, Na

2018-01-01

The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology.

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Lessa, Patrícia S; Caous, Cristofer A; Arantes, Paula R; Amaro, Edson; de Souza, Fernando M Campello

2008-11-13

The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control (QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

"Utilizing" signal detection theory.

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Lynn, Spencer K; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-09-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, judging a defendant's guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, for which different responses are appropriate) and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial, we show how incorporating the economic concept of utility allows signal detection theory to serve as a model of optimal decision making, going beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory clarifies otherwise enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (an inverse relationship between bias magnitude and sensitivity optimizes utility). A "utilized" signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. © The Author(s) 2014.

Using Rational Action Theory and Bourdieu's Habitus theory together to account for educational decision-making in England and Germany.

OpenAIRE

Glaesser, J.; Cooper, B.

2014-01-01

Both Rational Action Theory (RAT) and Bourdieu’s habitus theory are employed to explain educational decision-making. RAT assumes that decision-making involves cost-benefit analysis, while habitus theory sees educational pathways as shaped by dispositions reflecting familial class of origin. These theories are often seen as conflicting, but we argue that they can fruitfully be used together. Proponents of these theories often employ different methods. RAT advocates usually employ survey d...

Influence of information on behavioral effects in decision processes

OpenAIRE

Angelarosa Longo; Viviana Ventre

2015-01-01

Rational models in decision processes are marked out by many anomalies, caused by behavioral issues. We point out the importance of information in causing inconsistent preferences in a decision process. In a single or multi agent decision process each mental model is influenced by the presence, the absence or false information about the problem or about other members of the decision making group. The difficulty in modeling these effects increases because behavioral biases influence also the m...

Decision theory applied to radioactive repository construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heilbron Filho, Paulo Fernando Lavalle; Pontedeiro, Elizabeth May

2001-01-01

The objective of this article is to present, through the presentation of an example, the applicability of the decision theory on the selection and construction of a repository for low and intermediate radioactive waste. (author)

Legislator voting and behavioral science theory: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Tung, Gregory J; Vernick, Jon S; Reiney, Erin V; Gielen, Andrea C

2012-11-01

To examine the application of behavioral science theories to explain the voting behavior of legislators for public health policies. We conducted a systematic review to identify studies that examined factors associated with legislator support, intention to vote, or actual votes on public health policies, emphasizing those grounded in behavior science theory. Twenty-one papers met our inclusion criteria, and 6 were explicitly grounded in a behavioral science theory. Behavioral science theories, and the theory of planned behavior in particular, provide a framework for understanding legislator voting behavior and can be used by advocates to advance pro-health policies.

Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

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Shen, Tian

In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing

Fuzzy-valued linguistic soft set theory and multi-attribute decision-making application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aiwu, Zhao; Hongjun, Guan

2016-01-01

In this work, we propose the theory of fuzzy linguistic soft set (FLSS) to represent the uncertainty and multi-angle of view when decision makers evaluate an object during decision-making. FLSS integrates fuzzy set theory, linguistic variable and soft set theory. It allows decision makers to utilize linguistic variables to evaluate an object and utilize fuzzy values to describe the corresponding grade of their support of their decisions. Meanwhile, because of the flexibility of soft set, decision makers can use more than one pair of fuzzy-linguistic evaluations to express their opinions from multiple perspectives directly, if necessary. Therefore, it is more flexible and practical than traditional fuzzy set or 2-dimension uncertainty linguistic variable. We also develop a generalized weighted aggregation operator for FLSSs to solve corresponding decision-making issues. Finally, we give a numerical example to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Early stress, parental motivation, and reproductive decision-making: applications of life history theory to parental behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabeza de Baca, Tomás; Ellis, Bruce J

2017-06-01

This review focuses on the impact of parental behavior on child development, as interpreted from an evolutionary-developmental perspective. We employ psychosocial acceleration theory to reinterpret the effects of variation in parental investment and involvement on child development, arguing that these effects have been structured by natural selection to match the developing child to current and expected future environments. Over time, an individual's development, physiology, and behavior are organized in a coordinated manner (as instantiated in 'life history strategies') that facilitates survival and reproductive success under different conditions. We review evidence to suggest that parental behavior (1) is strategic and contingent on environmental opportunities and constraints and (2) influences child life history strategies across behavioral, cognitive, and physiological domains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Some properties of focus points in one-shot decision theory

OpenAIRE

Guo, Peijun

2011-01-01

One-shot (one-time) decision problems concern the situations where a decision is experienced only once. Such one-shot decision problems are commonly encountered in business, economics and social systems. One-shot decision theory has been initially proposed by Guo [4]. The one-shot decision procedure comprises two steps. In the first step, a decision maker identifies which state of nature should be taken into account for each alternative amongst all available states of nature. These identified...

Making Decisions about an Educational Game, Simulation or Workshop: A 'Game Theory' Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia

1988-01-01

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

Mimesis: Linking Postmodern Theory to Human Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Dybicz, Phillip

2010-01-01

This article elaborates mimesis as a theory of causality used to explain human behavior. Drawing parallels to social constructionism's critique of positivism and naturalism, mimesis is offered as a theory of causality explaining human behavior that contests the current dominance of Newton's theory of causality as cause and effect. The contestation…

Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

Science.gov (United States)

Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

2017-08-01

While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

Decision-oriented environmental assessment: An empirical study of its theory and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pischke, Frederik; Cashmore, Matthew

2006-01-01

The potential advantages of a decision-oriented theory of environmental assessment have long been recognised, but it is only in recent years that this topic has received concerted attention. This research advanced contemporary debate on environmental assessment through an empirically-informed evaluation of strategic theoretical and methodological issues associated with the practical application of decision-oriented theory. This was undertaken by critically analysing the decision-oriented Environmental Impact Assessment system of the German Development Cooperation (a bilateral development assistance agency) using a modified version of a recent conceptual and methodological development, Analytical Strategic Environmental Assessment. The results indicate that some aspects of decision-oriented theory offer considerable potential for environmental assessment process management, and should be employed routinely. Yet uncertainty remains about whether certain core concepts, notably the detailed a priori description of decision processes, can be achieved in practice. The analysis also indicates that there is considerably more common ground in many contemporary debates about environmental assessment than the literature, which has tended towards polarisation suggests. The significance of this research is that it recognises and highlights the contribution of decision-oriented theory to refocusing attention on the substantive intent of this globally significant policy tool

Academic decision making and prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B

2011-08-01

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

Impaired decision making under ambiguity but not under risk in individuals with pathological buying-behavioral and psychophysiological evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Trotzke, Patrick; Starcke, Katrin; Pedersen, Anya; Müller, Astrid; Brand, Matthias

2015-09-30

Pathological buying (PB) is described as dysfunctional buying behavior, associated with harmful consequences. It is discussed whether decision-making deficits are related to PB, because affected individuals often choose the short-term rewarding option of buying despite persistent negative long-term consequences. We investigated 30 patients suffering from PB and 30 matched control participants with two different decision-making tasks: the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures decisions under ambiguity and involves emotional feedback processing, whereas the Game of Dice Task (GDT) measures decisions under risk and can be solved strategically. Potential emotional and cognitive correlates of decision making were investigated by assessing skin conductance response (SCR) and executive functioning. In comparison to the control participants, the patients showed more disadvantageous decisions under ambiguity in the IGT. These data were supported by the SCR results: patients failed to generate SCRs that usually occur before disadvantageous decisions. The physiological and behavioral performance on decisions under risk and executive functioning did not differ between groups. Thus, deficits in emotional feedback processing might be one potential factor in etiology and pathogenesis of PB and should be considered in theory and treatment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Decision-making behavior of experts at nuclear power plants. Regulatory focus influence on cognitive heuristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, Johannes

2015-09-01

The goal of this research project was to examine factors, on the basis of regulatory focus theory and the heuristics and biases approach, that influence decision-making processes of experts at nuclear power plants. Findings show that this group applies anchoring (heuristic) when evaluating conjunctive and disjunctive events and that they maintain a constant regulatory focus characteristic. No influence of the experts' characteristic regulatory focus on cognitive heuristics could be established. Theoretical and practical consequences on decision-making behavior of experts are presented. Finally, a method for measuring the use of heuristics especially in the nuclear industry is discussed.

Crisis behavior: An exploration of theories in concert.

Science.gov (United States)

McConnell, Jason B; Crudo, Christine

2015-01-01

How might prominent existing communication theory better explain behavior in a crisis context, when considered in concert with one another? This theoretical work highlights the insight to be gained using Situational Crisis Communication Theory and Bandura's notions of self-efficacy to heighten the explanatory power of the Theory of Planned Behavior as applied to communication during times of crisis. Situational Crisis Communication Theory better explains how past experience with crisis influences the attitudes and social norms of crisis behavior, while Bandura's notion of self-efficacy speaks more directly to the availability of resources as contributing factors to perceived behavioral control in a crisis situation. As such, the incorporation of these well-developed notions into the broader framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior affords greater understanding of the relationship between communication and behavior during a crisis. Further exploration of this theoretical relationship is warranted.

THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

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Mihaela Andreea STROE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

“UTILIZING” SIGNAL DETECTION THEORY

Science.gov (United States)

Lynn, Spencer K.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-01-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, deciding to report a symptom to your doctor, judging a defendant’s guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, which engender different appropriate responses), and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial we show how, by incorporating the economic concept of utility, signal detection theory serves as a model of optimal decision making, beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory highlights potentially enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (a functional relationship between bias and sensitivity). A “utilized” signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. PMID:25097061

Comparing three attitude-behavior theories for predicting science teachers' intentions

Science.gov (United States)

Zint, Michaela

2002-11-01

Social psychologists' attitude-behavior theories can contribute to understanding science teachers' behaviors. Such understanding can, in turn, be used to improve professional development. This article describes leading attitude-behavior theories and summarizes results from past tests of these theories. A study predicting science teachers' intention to incorporate environmental risk education based on these theories is also reported. Data for that study were collected through a mail questionnaire (n = 1336, radjusted = 80%) and analyzed using confirmatory factor and multiple regression analysis. All determinants of intention to act in the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior and some determinants in the Theory of Trying predicted science teachers' environmental risk education intentions. Given the consistency of results across studies, the Theory of Planned Behavior augmented with past behavior is concluded to provide the best attitude-behavior model for predicting science teachers' intention to act. Thus, science teachers' attitude toward the behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norm need to be enhanced to modify their behavior. Based on the Theory of Trying, improving their attitude toward the process and toward success, and expectations of success may also result in changes. Future research should focus on identifying determinants that can further enhance the ability of these theories to predict and explain science teachers' behaviors.

Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

2006-11-01

Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

SUMMARY OF THEORIES IN CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS

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Herczeg Adrienn

2014-07-01

In Hungary the capital structure of enterprises changed significantly since 1990, but it is true, that their decisions about the capital can not fit with neither theoretical appeal totally. There is no universal theory of the debt-equity choice, and no reason to expect one.

[Relational frame theory - a theoretical framework for contextual behavioral science].

Science.gov (United States)

Kensche, M; Schweiger, U

2015-05-01

Therapists have to deal with verbal systems and often work with verbal exchange. Therefore, a psychological theory is required, which teaches the therapist how to accomplish this task. The BRT is a theory of human language and cognition that explains how people use their verbal behavior as stimuli in their interrelations and how they act and react, based on the resulting relationships. This behavior is learned very early in the course of language acquisition and functions as a generalized operant. A prerequisite for this is the ability of people to undergo mental simulation. This enables them to construct diverse relational frameworks between individual stimuli. Without relational frameworks, people cannot function. The ability to establish a relational framework is a prerequisite for the formation of rule-governed behavior. Rule-governed behavior economizes complex decision processes, creates interpersonal security and enables dealing with events before they take place. On the other hand, the same properties that enable people to solve problems effectively can also contribute to rigid adherence to rules and experience avoidance. Relational frameworks, once established, outweigh other sources of behavioral regulation. Thus, it can become the basis of psychopathology. Poor contextual control makes it difficult for people to devote flexible, focused and voluntary attention to the present and align their actions with the immediate present. Contextual psychotherapy methods that are based on the BRT start precisely at this point: Targeted establishment of new contingencies in the therapeutic interaction through systematic strengthening of metacognitive mode and through the establishment of new rules that make possible a change in the rule-governed behavior enable undermining of dysfunctional rule-governed behavior and build up desirable behavior. This allows any therapeutic process to be more effective - regardless of the patient's expressed symptoms. © Georg Thieme

[Relational Frame Theory--A Theoretical Framework for Contextual Behavioral Science].

Science.gov (United States)

Kensche, M; Schweiger, U

2015-07-01

Therapists have to deal with verbal systems and often work with verbal exchange. Therefore, a psychological theory is required, which teaches the therapist how to accomplish this task. The BRT is a theory of human language and cognition that explains how people use their verbal behavior as stimuli in their interrelations and how they act and react, based on the resulting relationships. This behavior is learned very early in the course of language acquisition and functions as a generalized operant. A prerequisite for this is the ability of people to undergo mental simulation. This enables them to construct diverse relational frameworks between individual stimuli. Without relational frameworks, people cannot function. The ability to establish a relational framework is a prerequisite for the formation of rule-governed behavior. Rule-governed behavior economizes complex decision processes, creates interpersonal security and enables dealing with events before they take place. On the other hand, the same properties that enable people to solve problems effectively can also contribute to rigid adherence to rules and experience avoidance. Relational frameworks, once established, outweigh other sources of behavioral regulation. Thus, it can become the basis of psychopathology. Poor contextual control makes it difficult for people to devote flexible, focused and voluntary attention to the present and align their actions with the immediate present. Contextual psychotherapy methods that are based on the BRT start precisely at this point: Targeted establishment of new contingencies in the therapeutic interaction through systematic strengthening of metacognitive mode and through the establishment of new rules that make possible a change in the rule-governed behavior enable undermining of dysfunctional rule-governed behavior and build up desirable behavior. This allows any therapeutic process to be more effective--regardless of the patient's expressed symptoms. © Georg Thieme

Perilaku Pembelian Konsumen: Sebuah Tinjauan Literatur Theory of Planned Behavior

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Meitiana

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study aims to examine the differences between several empirical articles on the theory of planned behavior. Theory of planned behavior provides a framework for studying attitudes toward behaviors that postulate three determinants of conceptual intent. Specifically, the intention is based on the variables of attitude toward behavior, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Although this theory has been used frequently, there are still differences in outcomes in explaining attitudes toward behavior. The results show that there is still a different view of the theory of planned behavior so it is necessary to identify the gaps that occur in this theory. For further research is expected to expand and enrich the discussion of the theory of planned behavior

Measuring and modeling behavioral decision dynamics in collective evacuation.

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Jean M Carlson

Full Text Available Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies.

Theories of information behavior

CERN Document Server

Erdelez, Sandra; McKechnie, Lynne

2005-01-01

This unique book presents authoritative overviews of more than 70 conceptual frameworks for understanding how people seek, manage, share, and use information in different contexts. A practical and readable reference to both well-established and newly proposed theories of information behavior, the book includes contributions from 85 scholars from 10 countries. Each theory description covers origins, propositions, methodological implications, usage, links to related conceptual frameworks, and listings of authoritative primary and secondary references. The introductory chapters explain key concepts, theory–method connections, and the process of theory development.

High-energy behavior of non-Abelian gauge theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieh, H.T.; Yao, Y.

1976-01-01

This paper is a detailed account of a study in perturbation theory of the high-energy behavior of non-Abelian gauge theories. The fermion-fermion scattering amplitude is calculated up to sixth order in the coupling constant in the high-energy limit s → infinity with fixed t, in the approximation of keeping only the leading logarithmic terms. Results indicate that the high-energy behavior of non-Abelian gauge theories are complicated, and quite different from the known behaviors of other field theories studied so far

Applications of decision theory to computer-based adaptive instructional systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1988-01-01

This paper considers applications of decision theory to the problem of instructional decision-making in computer-based adaptive instructional systems, using the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System (MAIS) as an example. The first section indicates how the problem of selecting the appropriate

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burns, B.A.

1980-11-01

This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the models were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.

A Grounded Theory on Helping Behavior and Its Shaping Factors

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A Grounded Theory on Helping Behavior and Its Shaping Factors

2006-06-01

Full Text Available In social psychology, the attribution model of helping behavior suggests that beliefs of the helping target’s responsibility for the need for help evoke affective motivators such as feelings of pity, sympathy, or anger. The affective motivation leads to helping or not helping the target. The current emergent theory is an enhancement of this theory by incorporating other personal and situational variables.Through the use of classic grounded theory, I interviewed 80 participants from different De La Salle Schools in the Philippines. This yielded over 1300 individual incidents that were compared and contrasted to form codes, categories and subcategories. A theory on the decision making process of helping emerged that incorporates the helper’s personal conviction, and rational deliberations of the situation. The desire to help is based on the helper’s rationalemotive beliefs (philosophical ideals and values that nurture helping and the knowledge of the nature of risk/problem and relational-emotive ties (with the one who needs help and with a social group that nurtures helping. The desire to help undergoes a process of rationalpragmatic-deliberations on the appropriateness of the recipients need of help, the cost of helping, the helper’s capability of helping, and the logistics of helping before the actual helping occurs. The theory has implications for current social psychological theories of helping, and the use of classic grounded theory research.

Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

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Alex Diego Souza Queiroz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to research, questionnaires were sent electronically to a number of bank branches. Five scenarios were presented, seeking to identify the influence of behavioral factors on decisions in situations of risk. In addition, emotional triggers were included in some questions in order to verify the influence of this component on responses. Results were treated with SPSS software, using descriptive analysis of data and the statistical test Chi-square (χ². Results observed for the five scenarios indicated that emotions and limited rationality in complex environments tend to influence managers in their decision-making process. The study evidence suggests differences in decision-making in accordance with how the problem is presented.

The Decision Tree: A Tool for Achieving Behavioral Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Saren, Dru

1999-01-01

Presents a "Decision Tree" process for structuring team decision making and problem solving about specific student behavioral goals. The Decision Tree involves a sequence of questions/decisions that can be answered in "yes/no" terms. Questions address reasonableness of the goal, time factors, importance of the goal, responsibilities, safety,…

Statistical test theory for the behavioral sciences

CERN Document Server

de Gruijter, Dato N M

2007-01-01

Since the development of the first intelligence test in the early 20th century, educational and psychological tests have become important measurement techniques to quantify human behavior. Focusing on this ubiquitous yet fruitful area of research, Statistical Test Theory for the Behavioral Sciences provides both a broad overview and a critical survey of assorted testing theories and models used in psychology, education, and other behavioral science fields. Following a logical progression from basic concepts to more advanced topics, the book first explains classical test theory, covering true score, measurement error, and reliability. It then presents generalizability theory, which provides a framework to deal with various aspects of test scores. In addition, the authors discuss the concept of validity in testing, offering a strategy for evidence-based validity. In the two chapters devoted to item response theory (IRT), the book explores item response models, such as the Rasch model, and applications, incl...

Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Guo, Xianping

2009-01-01

This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

The origin of behavioral bursts in decision-making circuitry.

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Amanda Sorribes

2011-06-01

Full Text Available From ants to humans, the timing of many animal behaviors comes in bursts of activity separated by long periods of inactivity. Recently, mathematical modeling has shown that simple algorithms of priority-driven behavioral choice can result in bursty behavior. To experimentally test this link between decision-making circuitry and bursty dynamics, we have turned to Drosophila melanogaster. We have found that the statistics of intervals between activity periods in endogenous activity-rest switches of wild-type Drosophila are very well described by the Weibull distribution, a common distribution of bursty dynamics in complex systems. The bursty dynamics of wild-type Drosophila walking activity are shown to be determined by this inter-event distribution alone and not by memory effects, thus resembling human dynamics. Further, using mutant flies that disrupt dopaminergic signaling or the mushroom body, circuitry implicated in decision-making, we show that the degree of behavioral burstiness can be modified. These results are thus consistent with the proposed link between decision-making circuitry and bursty dynamics, and highlight the importance of using simple experimental systems to test general theoretical models of behavior. The findings further suggest that analysis of bursts could prove useful for the study and evaluation of decision-making circuitry.

Behavioral finance

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Kapor Predrag

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discuss some general principles of behavioral finance Behavioral finance is the dynamic and promising field of research that mergers concepts from financial economics and cognitive psychology in attempt to better understand systematic biases in decision-making process of financial agents. While the standard academic finance emphasizes theories such as modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis, the behavioral finance investigates the psychological and sociological issues that impact the decision-making process of individuals, groups and organizations. Most of the research behind behavioral finance has been empirical in nature, concentrating on what people do and why. The research has shown that people do not always act rationally, nor they fully utilise all information available to them.

Human-Agent Decision-making: Combining Theory and Practice

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Sarit Kraus

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Extensive work has been conducted both in game theory and logic to model strategic interaction. An important question is whether we can use these theories to design agents for interacting with people? On the one hand, they provide a formal design specification for agent strategies. On the other hand, people do not necessarily adhere to playing in accordance with these strategies, and their behavior is affected by a multitude of social and psychological factors. In this paper we will consider the question of whether strategies implied by theories of strategic behavior can be used by automated agents that interact proficiently with people. We will focus on automated agents that we built that need to interact with people in two negotiation settings: bargaining and deliberation. For bargaining we will study game-theory based equilibrium agents and for argumentation we will discuss logic-based argumentation theory. We will also consider security games and persuasion games and will discuss the benefits of using equilibrium based agents.

Educational Theory and Classroom Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, Ronald G.; Smith, William S.

1979-01-01

Described are two instruments used in a workshop designed to help teachers clarify their own beliefs about education and to shape their classroom behavior accordingly. The Student-Content Inventory concerns styles of student-teacher interaction and the Educational Theory Inventory correlates the respondent's beliefs to major educational theories.…

From conditional oughts to qualitative decision theory

Science.gov (United States)

Pearl, Judea

1994-01-01

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., 'You ought to do A, if C') that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory, thus providing a framework for qualitative planning under uncertainty. In particular, we show that adding causal relationships (in the form of a single graph) as part of an epistemic state is sufficient to facilitate the analysis of action sequences, their consequences, their interaction with observations, their expected utilities, and the synthesis of plans and strategies under uncertainty.

Exploring the link between environmental identity, behaviors and decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Freed, Allison

This study was conducted with undergraduate students at a large university to investigate the association between environmental identity, pro-environmental behaviors and environmental decision-making. This study explored how environmental identity as defined by Clayton (2003) influenced the type of pro-environmental behaviors individuals choose to participate in. Environmental decision-making based on Kahneman's (2003, 2011) System 1 and System 2 framework was also assessed in association with environmental identity. A survey including the Environmental Identity Survey (Clayton, 2003), the Environmentally Responsible Behaviors Index (Smith-Sebasto & D'Acosta, 1995), and a Decision Making Questionnaire were administered. After administering the surveys, eight participants were chosen for a 60-minute interview. The quantitative results of the study showed there was a significant relationship between environmental identity and participating in environmental behaviors more often. There was also a significant relation between environmental identity and making the decision to recycle in a fast and automatic way. The interview results showed that participants with both a strong and a weak environmental identity recycled often and thought it was a fast decision. The results of this study show that certain components of environmental identity are important, but other factors like the physical environment and social norms influence the thinking that goes into recycling more than environmental identity alone. This study provides evidence of the importance of social norms and environmental structures in fostering pro-environmental behaviors and influencing the type of thinking that goes into making environmental decisions. Keywords: environmental identity, environmental behaviors, System 1, System 2, recycling.

Desining an Expert System for Analyzing the Energy Consumption Behavior of Employees in Organizations Using Rough Set Theory

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Tooraj Karimi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Understanding and changing the energy consumption behavior requires extensive knowledge about the motives of behavior. In this research, Rough Set Theory is used to investigate the energy consumption behavior of employees in organizations. So, thirteen condition attributes and a decision attribute are selected and the decision system is created. Condition attributes include demographic, values, attitudes and organizational characteristics of employees and decision attribute relates to energy consumption behavior. 482 employees are selected randomly from 37 office buildings of ministry of Petroleum and rough modeling are performed for them. By combining different methods of discretizing, reduction algorithms and rule generating, nine models are made using ROSETTA software. The results show that four of the 13 condition attributes, involving “organizational citizenship”, “satisfaction”, “attitude toward behavior” and “lighting control” are selected as the main features of the system. After cross validation of the various models, the model of manually discretizing using genetic algorithms and ORR approach to extract reducts has the most accuracy and selected as the most reliable model.

Use of Theory in Behavior Change Interventions.

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Bluethmann, Shirley M; Bartholomew, L Kay; Murphy, Caitlin C; Vernon, Sally W

2017-04-01

Theory use may enhance effectiveness of behavioral interventions, yet critics question whether theory-based interventions have been sufficiently scrutinized. This study applied a framework to evaluate theory use in physical activity interventions for breast cancer survivors. The aims were to (1) evaluate theory application intensity and (2) assess the association between extensiveness of theory use and intervention effectiveness. Studies were previously identified through a systematic search, including only randomized controlled trials published from 2005 to 2013, that addressed physical activity behavior change and studied survivors who were theory items from Michie and Prestwich's coding framework were selected to calculate theory intensity scores. Studies were classified into three subgroups based on extensiveness of theory use (Level 1 = sparse; Level 2 = moderate; and Level 3 = extensive). Fourteen randomized controlled trials met search criteria. Most trials used the transtheoretical model ( n = 5) or social cognitive theory ( n = 3). For extensiveness of theory use, 5 studies were classified as Level 1, 4 as Level 2, and 5 as Level 3. Studies in the extensive group (Level 3) had the largest overall effect size ( g = 0.76). Effects were more modest in Level 1 and 2 groups with overall effect sizes of g = 0.28 and g = 0.36, respectively. Theory use is often viewed as essential to behavior change, but theory application varies widely. In this study, there was some evidence to suggest that extensiveness of theory use enhanced intervention effectiveness. However, there is more to learn about how theory can improve interventions for breast cancer survivors.

A theory of Bayesian decision making

OpenAIRE

Karni, Edi

2009-01-01

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes’ rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decisio...

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

2013-01-01

Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The Intentions Affecting the Medical Decision-Making Behavior of Surrogate Decision Makers of Critically Ill Patients and Related Factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Szu-Huei; Wu, Li-Min

2018-04-01

The severity of diseases and high mortality rates that typify the intensive care unit often make it difficult for surrogate decision makers to make decisions for critically ill patients regarding whether to continue medical treatments or to accept palliative care. To explore the behavioral intentions that underlie the medical decisions of surrogate decision makers of critically ill patients and the related factors. A cross-sectional, correlation study design was used. A total of 193 surrogate decision makers from six ICUs in a medical center in southern Taiwan were enrolled as participants. Three structured questionnaires were used, including a demographic datasheet, the Family Relationship Scale, and the Behavioral Intention of Medical Decisions Scale. Significantly positive correlations were found between the behavioral intentions underlying medical decisions and the following variables: the relationship of the participant to the patient (Eta = .343, p = .020), the age of the patient (r = .295, p medical decisions of the surrogate decision makers, explaining 13.9% of the total variance. In assessing the behavioral intentions underlying the medical decisions of surrogate decision makers, health providers should consider the relationship between critical patients and their surrogate decision makers, patient age, the length of ICU stay, and whether the patient has a pre-signed advance healthcare directive in order to maximize the effectiveness of medical care provided to critically ill patients.

Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, R.M.; Johnson, F.A.

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

A behavior-analytic critique of Bandura's self-efficacy theory

Science.gov (United States)

Biglan, Anthony

1987-01-01

A behavior-analytic critique of self-efficacy theory is presented. Self-efficacy theory asserts that efficacy expectations determine approach behavior and physiological arousal of phobics as well as numerous other clinically important behaviors. Evidence which is purported to support this assertion is reviewed. The evidence consists of correlations between self-efficacy ratings and other behaviors. Such response-response relationships do not unequivocally establish that one response causes another. A behavior-analytic alternative to self-efficacy theory explains these relationships in terms of environmental events. Correlations between self-efficacy rating behavior and other behavior may be due to the contingencies of reinforcement that establish a correspondence between such verbal predictions and the behavior to which they refer. Such a behavior-analytic account does not deny any of the empirical relationships presented in support of self-efficacy theory, but it points to environmental variables that could account for those relationships and that could be manipulated in the interest of developing more effective treatment procedures. PMID:22477956

Application of Grey Theory in Operator Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Hong

2011-01-01

Scientific and reasonable operator management is the basis of nuclear security. It was paid more attention after the three-mile island accident. The prediction of operators' basic behavior parameters is the premise and foundation of scientific and reasonable operator management. Grey theory happens to solve the dilemma encountered in prediction and decision-making of operator behavior in operator management of NPP. The procedure is divided into two steps: according to the history record of operators' behavior parameter, a differential equation model using grey theory is set up to predict the future behavior of operators and use grey theory to make decision for operator management. The calculation result is helpful for operator management and also useful for operators to find their shortcoming. Grey theory using in the study provides a new idea and method for future operator management in NPP

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

Explicating Individual Training Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Marcel; Mueller, Normann

2015-01-01

In this paper, we explicate individual training decisions. For this purpose, we propose a framework based on instrumentality theory, a psychological theory of motivation that has frequently been applied to individual occupational behavior. To test this framework, we employ novel German individual data and estimate the effect of subjective expected…

Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

2010-01-01

This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

Applying Psychological Theories to Promote Long-Term Maintenance of Health Behaviors

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Joseph, Rodney P.; Daniel, Casey L.; Thind, Herpreet; Benitez, Tanya J.; Pekmezi, Dori

2014-01-01

Behavioral health theory provides a framework for researchers to design, implement, and evaluate the effects of health promotion programs. However, limited research has examined theories used in interventions to promote long-term maintenance of health behaviors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the available literature and identify prominent behavioral health theories used in intervention research to promote maintenance of health behaviors. We reviewed theories used in intervention research assessing long-term maintenance (≥ 6 months post-intervention) of physical activity, weight loss, and smoking cessation. Five prominent behavioral theories were referenced by the 34 studies included in the review: Self-Determination Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Transtheoretical Model, and Social Ecological Model. Descriptions and examples of applications of these theories are provided. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:28217036

Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.

1985-01-01

According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

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Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

Economics and psychology. The framing of decisions

OpenAIRE

Schilirò, Daniele

2016-01-01

In the Theory of Rational Decision Making the psychological aspects are set aside. This contribution seeks to point out the relevance of psychology into economic decisions. The essay treats the "framing of decisions", which is a pillar of Kahneman's behavioral theory. Framing must be considered a special case of the more general phenomenon of dependency from the representation. The best-known risky choice-framing problem, i.e. the "Asian Disease Problem", is shown where an essential aspect of...

When people don't realize their career decisions : towards a theory of career inaction

OpenAIRE

Verbruggen, Marijke; Vos, de, Ans

2016-01-01

Abstract: Career decisions are at the core of the career literature. Most theories on career decisions - and accordingly, most empirical studies - have focused on the decision-making process and on factors influencing it. Some theoretical work has been done on the phase afterwards, i.e. after the career decision is made. However, these theories generally focus on the career transition process, implicitly assuming that people always go through with the objective changes they desired. Career in...

Physical Activity Participation: Social Cognitive Theory versus the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behavior.

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Dzewaltowski, David A; Noble, John M; Shaw, Jeff M

1990-12-01

Social cognitive theory and the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior were examined in the prediction of 4 weeks of physical activity participation. The theories of reasoned action and planned behavior were supported. Attitude and perceived control predicted intention, and intention predicted physical activity participation. The social cognitive theory variables significantly predicted physical activity participation, with self-efficacy and self-evaluation of the behavior significantly contributing to the prediction. The greater the confidence in participating in physical activity and the greater the satisfaction with present physical activity, the more physical activity performed. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that perceived control and intentions did not account for any unique variation in physical activity participation over self-efficacy. Therefore the social cognitive theory constructs were better predictors of physical activity than those from the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior.

Non-Bayesian decision theory beliefs and desires as reasons for action

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Peterson, Martin

2008-01-01

This book aims to present an account of rational choice from a non-Bayesian point of view. It provides the first non-Bayesian account of normative decision theory and includes a formal account of the framing of decision problems.

Eating Behaviors of Older African Americans: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

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O’Neal, Catherine Walker

2014-01-01

Purpose: The study applies the theory of planned behavior to explain the fruit and vegetable eating behaviors, a broad construct consisting of preparing, self-monitoring, and consuming fruits and vegetables, of older African Americans. Design and Methods: Structural equation modeling was used to examine the applicability of the theory of planned behavior with data from 211 older African American women and men (73% women, 26% men; median age range of 57–63 years) participating in a larger intervention study. Results: Attitudes about eating fruit and vegetables, subjective social norms, and perceived behavioral control were related to older African Americans’ intentions to consume fruits and vegetables. Social norms and behavioral intentions were associated with fruit and vegetable eating behaviors. Perceived control did not moderate the influence of behavioral intentions on actual behavior. Implications: Results indicated that the theory of planned behavior can be used to explain variation in older African Americans’ eating behavior. This study also emphasizes the value of considering broader behavioral domains when employing the theory of planned behavior rather than focusing on specific behaviors. Furthermore, social service programs aimed at reducing the incidence of diseases commonly associated with poor eating behaviors among older African Americans must consider promoting not only fruit and vegetable consumption but also related behaviors including preparing and self-monitoring by eliminating structural, cognitive, and normative constraints. PMID:23241919

PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

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Popovici Ioana

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

Telaah Kritis Expectancy Theory Victor Harold Vroom

OpenAIRE

Anatan, Lina

2010-01-01

Expectancy theory has emerge as the dominant process theory of motivation, originally developed by Vroom is a theory explaining the process individual use to make decision on a various behavioral alternatives. The motivational force for a behavior, action, or task is a function of three distinctive perceptions: expectancy, instrumentality, and valance. The theory contains of two models: for the precition of valance of an outcome, and the other for the prediction of force toward behavior. It p...

A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

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Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael. Bevers

2015-01-01

Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

Perilaku Pembelian Konsumen: sebuah Tinjauan Literatur Theory Of Planned Behavior

OpenAIRE

Meitiana, Meitiana

2017-01-01

This study aims to examine the differences between several empirical articles on the theory of planned behavior. Theory of planned behavior provides a framework for studying attitudes toward behaviors that postulate three determinants of conceptual intent. Specifically, the intention is based on the variables of attitude toward behavior, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Although this theory has been used frequently, there are still differences in outcomes in explaining atti...

Application of grey theory in operator management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Hong

2013-01-01

Scientific and reasonable operator management is the basis of nuclear safety. It is paid more attention after the three-mile island accident. The prediction of operators' basic behavior parameters is the premise and foundation of scientific and reasonable operator management. Grey theory happened to solve the dilemma encountered in prediction and decision-making of operator behavior in operator management of nuclear power plant. The procedure was divided into two steps: 1) According to the historical record of operators' behavior parameters, a differential equation model using grey theory was set up to predict the future behavior of operators; 2) operator management decision-making was made based on grey theory. The calculation result is not only helpful for operator management but also useful for operators to find their shortcomings. Grey theory used in the study provides a new idea and method for future operator management in nuclear power plant. (author)

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model.

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Murshid, Mohsen Ali; Mohaidin, Zurina

2017-01-01

To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the 'persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model', the stimuli-response marketing model', the 'agency theory', the theory of planned behaviour,' and 'social power theory,' in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support.

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Laukkanen, Sanna; Kangas, Annika; Kangas, Jyrki

2002-02-01

Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

Science.gov (United States)

Killeen, Peter R

2006-08-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.

Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory to the optimization of generating set maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

1994-07-01

Statistical decision theory could be a alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. In effect, this theory concerns the situation in which a decision maker has to make a choice between a set of reasonable decisions, and where the loss associated to a given decision depends on a probabilistic risk, called state of nature. In the case of maintenance optimization, the decisions to be analyzed are different periodicities proposed by the experts, given the observed feedback experience, the states of nature are the associated failure probabilities, and the losses are the expectations of the induced cost of maintenance and of consequences of the failures. As failure probabilities concern rare events, at the ultimate state of RCM analysis (failure of sub-component), and as expected foreseeable behaviour of equipment has to be evaluated by experts, Bayesian approach is successfully used to compute states of nature. In Bayesian decision theory, a prior distribution for failure probabilities is modeled from expert knowledge, and is combined with few stochastic information provided by feedback experience, giving a posterior distribution of failure probabilities. The optimized decision is the decision that minimizes the expected loss over the posterior distribution. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants. In these plants, auxiliary electric power is supplied by 2 redundant diesel generators which are tested every 2 weeks during about 1 hour. Until now, during yearly refueling of each plant, one endoscopic inspection of diesel cylinders is performed, and every 5 operating years, all cylinders are replaced. RCM has shown that cylinder failures could be critical. So Bayesian decision theory has been applied, taking into account expert opinions, and possibility of aging when maintenance periodicity is extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Can quantum approaches benefit biology of decision making?

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Takahashi, Taiki

2017-11-01

Human decision making has recently been focused in the emerging fields of quantum decision theory and neuroeconomics. The former discipline utilizes mathematical formulations developed in quantum theory, while the latter combines behavioral economics and neurobiology. In this paper, the author speculates on possible future directions unifying the two approaches, by contrasting the roles of quantum theory in the birth of molecular biology of the gene. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

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Peng Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

Ethical behavior of nurses in decision-making in Iran

OpenAIRE

Ebrahimi, Hossein; Nikravesh, Mansoure; Oskouie, Fatemeh; Ahmadi, Fazlollah

2015-01-01

Background: Ethical caring is an essential in nursing practice. Nurses are confronted with complex situations in which they are expected to autonomously make decisions in delivering good care to patients. Although a wide range of studies have examined ethical behavior of nurses, there are still many issues requiring further investigation. The aim of this article is to describe the ethical behavior of nurses in decision-making in patients? care in Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was co...

Optimal search behavior and classic foraging theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartumeus, F; Catalan, J

2009-01-01

Random walk methods and diffusion theory pervaded ecological sciences as methods to analyze and describe animal movement. Consequently, statistical physics was mostly seen as a toolbox rather than as a conceptual framework that could contribute to theory on evolutionary biology and ecology. However, the existence of mechanistic relationships and feedbacks between behavioral processes and statistical patterns of movement suggests that, beyond movement quantification, statistical physics may prove to be an adequate framework to understand animal behavior across scales from an ecological and evolutionary perspective. Recently developed random search theory has served to critically re-evaluate classic ecological questions on animal foraging. For instance, during the last few years, there has been a growing debate on whether search behavior can include traits that improve success by optimizing random (stochastic) searches. Here, we stress the need to bring together the general encounter problem within foraging theory, as a mean for making progress in the biological understanding of random searching. By sketching the assumptions of optimal foraging theory (OFT) and by summarizing recent results on random search strategies, we pinpoint ways to extend classic OFT, and integrate the study of search strategies and its main results into the more general theory of optimal foraging.

Group decisions in biodiversity conservation: implications from game theory.

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Frank, David M; Sarkar, Sahotra

2010-05-27

Decision analysis and game theory have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self-interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes. Three case studies from biodiversity conservation contexts showing this feature are modeled to demonstrate how game-theoretical representation can inform group decision-making. The mathematical theory of games is used to model three biodiversity conservation scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria: (i) a two-agent case involving wild dogs in South Africa; (ii) a three-agent raptor and grouse conservation scenario from the United Kingdom; and (iii) an n-agent fish and coral conservation scenario from the Philippines. In each case there is reason to believe that traditional mechanism-design solutions that appeal to material incentives may be inadequate, and the game-theoretical analysis recommends a resumption of further deliberation between agents and the initiation of trust--and confidence--building measures. Game theory can and should be used as a normative tool in biodiversity conservation contexts: identifying scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria enables constructive action in order to achieve (closer to) optimal conservation outcomes, whether by policy solutions based on mechanism design or otherwise. However, there is mounting evidence that formal mechanism-design solutions may backfire in certain cases. Such scenarios demand a return to group deliberation and the creation of reciprocal relationships of trust.

Group decisions in biodiversity conservation: implications from game theory.

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David M Frank

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Decision analysis and game theory have proved useful tools in various biodiversity conservation planning and modeling contexts. This paper shows how game theory may be used to inform group decisions in biodiversity conservation scenarios by modeling conflicts between stakeholders to identify Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria. These are cases in which each agent pursuing individual self-interest leads to a worse outcome for all, relative to other feasible outcomes. Three case studies from biodiversity conservation contexts showing this feature are modeled to demonstrate how game-theoretical representation can inform group decision-making. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The mathematical theory of games is used to model three biodiversity conservation scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria: (i a two-agent case involving wild dogs in South Africa; (ii a three-agent raptor and grouse conservation scenario from the United Kingdom; and (iii an n-agent fish and coral conservation scenario from the Philippines. In each case there is reason to believe that traditional mechanism-design solutions that appeal to material incentives may be inadequate, and the game-theoretical analysis recommends a resumption of further deliberation between agents and the initiation of trust--and confidence--building measures. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Game theory can and should be used as a normative tool in biodiversity conservation contexts: identifying scenarios with Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibria enables constructive action in order to achieve (closer to optimal conservation outcomes, whether by policy solutions based on mechanism design or otherwise. However, there is mounting evidence that formal mechanism-design solutions may backfire in certain cases. Such scenarios demand a return to group deliberation and the creation of reciprocal relationships of trust.

Perceived enjoyment, concentration, intention, and speed violation behavior: Using flow theory and theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Atombo, Charles; Wu, Chaozhong; Zhang, Hui; Wemegah, Tina D

2017-10-03

Road accidents are an important public health concern, and speeding is a major contributor. Although flow theory (FLT) is a valid model for understanding behavior, currently the nature of the roles and interplay of FLT constructs within the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework when attempting to explain the determinants of motivations for intention to speed and speeding behavior of car drivers is not yet known. The study aims to synthesize TPB and FLT in explaining drivers of advanced vehicles intentions to speed and speed violation behaviors and evaluate factors that are critical for explaining intention and behavior. The hypothesized model was validated using a sample collected from 354 fully licensed drivers of advanced vehicles, involving 278 males and 76 females on 2 occasions separated by a 3-month interval. During the first of the 2 occasions, participants completed questionnaire measures of TPB and FLT variables. Three months later, participants' speed violation behaviors were assessed. The study observed a significant positive relationship between the constructs. The proposed model accounted for 51 and 45% of the variance in intention to speed and speed violation behavior, respectively. The independent predictors of intention were enjoyment, attitude, and subjective norm. The independent predictors of speed violation behavior were enjoyment, concentration, intention, and perceived behavioral control. The findings suggest that safety interventions for preventing speed violation behaviors should be aimed at underlying beliefs influencing the speeding behaviors of drivers of advanced vehicles. Furthermore, perceived enjoyment is of equal importance to driver's intention, influencing speed violation behavior.

An integrated theory of attention and decision making in visual signal detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Philip L; Ratcliff, Roger

2009-04-01

The simplest attentional task, detecting a cued stimulus in an otherwise empty visual field, produces complex patterns of performance. Attentional cues interact with backward masks and with spatial uncertainty, and there is a dissociation in the effects of these variables on accuracy and on response time. A computational theory of performance in this task is described. The theory links visual encoding, masking, spatial attention, visual short-term memory (VSTM), and perceptual decision making in an integrated dynamic framework. The theory assumes that decisions are made by a diffusion process driven by a neurally plausible, shunting VSTM. The VSTM trace encodes the transient outputs of early visual filters in a durable form that is preserved for the time needed to make a decision. Attention increases the efficiency of VSTM encoding, either by increasing the rate of trace formation or by reducing the delay before trace formation begins. The theory provides a detailed, quantitative account of attentional effects in spatial cuing tasks at the level of response accuracy and the response time distributions. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved

A Study Exploring Factors of Decision to Text While Walking among College Students Based on Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB)

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Hyeseung; Mackert, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective: This study attempted to identify critical predictors of intention to both send and read texts while walking based on Theory of Planned Behavior in order to provide resources for practitioners and campaign designers to inform college students of the perils of texting while walking and dissuade them from such a risky behavior.…

Fertility intentions and outcomes: Implementing the Theory of Planned Behavior with graphical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Mencarini, Letizia; Vignoli, Daniele; Gottard, Anna

2015-03-01

This paper studies fertility intentions and their outcomes, analyzing the complete path leading to fertility behavior according to the social psychological model of Theory Planned Behavior (TPB). We move beyond existing research using graphical models to have a precise understanding, and a formal description, of the developmental fertility decision-making process. Our findings yield new results for the Italian case which are empirically robust and theoretically coherent, adding important insights to the effectiveness of the TPB for fertility research. In line with TPB, all intentions' primary antecedents are found to be determinants of the level of fertility intentions, but do not affect fertility outcomes, being pre-filtered by fertility intentions. Nevertheless, in contrast with TPB, background factors are not fully mediated by intentions' primary antecedents, influencing directly fertility intentions and even fertility behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The neurobiology of social decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rilling, J.K.; King-Casas, B.; Sanfey, A.G.

2008-01-01

Humans live in highly complex social environments and some of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Research that probes the neural basis of decision-making in the context of social interactions combines behavioral paradigms from game theory with a variety of

The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, R. J.

1985-01-01

Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

Increasing Personal Value Congruence in Computerized Decision Support Using System Feedback

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan Hosack

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The Theory of Universals in Values (TUV, a reliable and validated conceptualization of personal values used in psychology, is used to examine the effect of system feedback delivered by a Decision Support System (DSS on personal values. The results indicate that value-based decision-making behavior can be influenced by DSS feedback to address value congruence in decision-making. User behavior was shown to follow the outcomes expected by operant theory when feedback was supportive and to follow the outcomes of reactance theory when feedback was challenging. This result suggests that practitioners and Information System (IS researchers should consider user values when designing computerized decision feedback to adjust a system’s design such that the potential user backlash is avoided or congruence between organizational and personal values is achieved.

Mind-ception: Investigating the relationship between theory of mind and decision making

OpenAIRE

Ahamed, Hassan; Kurczek, Jake

2016-01-01

Ahamed, H., & Kurczek, J. (2016, April). Mind-ception: Investigating the relationship between theory of mind and decision making. Poster Presentation at the 31st Annual LVAIC Undergraduate Psychology Conference. Bethlehem, PA. •  Much of our decision making (DM) requires either direct or indirect considerations of others’ thoughts (McCubbins, et al., 2012). •  Theory of Mind (ToM – the capacity to infer the thoughts/intentions of others) is an abi...

Predictors of Tobacco Smoking in Male Adolescents in Hamadan Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

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Majid Barati

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background and Objectives: The cognitive determinants of social behaviors play an important role in adolescents' decision-making for starting smoking. The present study was therefore conducted to determine the predictors of tobacco smoking in male adolescents in Hamadan, Iran, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB. Materials and Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was conducted on 810 male high school students in Hamadan selected through the multistage sampling method. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire with a section on participants' demographic information and another section based on the TPB constructs. Data were then analyzed in SPSS-18 and AMOS-18 using the Pearson correlation test and the indices of model fit. Results: Overall, 17.2% of the male adolescents reported to have smoked cigarettes in the past. Perceived behavioral control, subjective norms and attitude were the best predictors of behavioral intention for tobacco smoking, in the order of importance (P<0.001. Perceived behavioral control (&beta=-0.59 P<0.001 was a better predictor of the studied behavior than behavioral intention (&beta=0.11 P<0.001. In the structural equation model, TPB constructs accounted for 32% of behavioral intention variances and 50% of behavior variances. Conclusion: The results demonstrated the poor role of behavioral intention in reporting smoking behaviors in male adolescents. Other psychological factors that affect adolescents' decision-making regarding tobacco smoking should also be scrutinized.

Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

2006-01-01

A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

Enhancing "theory of mind" through behavioral synchrony.

Science.gov (United States)

Baimel, Adam; Severson, Rachel L; Baron, Andrew S; Birch, Susan A J

2015-01-01

Theory of mind refers to the abilities underlying the capacity to reason about one's own and others' mental states. This ability is critical for predicting and making sense of the actions of others, is essential for efficient communication, fosters social learning, and provides the foundation for empathic concern. Clearly, there is incredible value in fostering theory of mind. Unfortunately, despite being the focus of a wealth of research over the last 40 years relatively little is known about specific strategies for fostering social perspective taking abilities. We provide a discussion of the rationale for applying one specific strategy for fostering efficient theory of mind-that of engaging in "behavioral synchrony" (i.e., the act of keeping together in time with others). Culturally evolved collective rituals involving synchronous actions have long been held to act as social glue. Specifically, here we present how behavioral synchrony tunes our minds for reasoning about other minds in the process of fostering social coordination and cooperation, and propose that we can apply behavioral synchrony as a tool for enhancing theory of mind.

Cognitive science contributions to decision science.

Science.gov (United States)

Busemeyer, Jerome R

2015-02-01

This article briefly reviews the history and interplay between decision theory, behavioral decision-making research, and cognitive psychology. The review reveals the increasingly important impact that psychology and cognitive science have on decision science. One of the main contributions of cognitive science to decision science is the development of dynamic models that describe the cognitive processes that underlay the evolution of preferences during deliberation phase of making a decision. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Theory of Utility Conditionals: Paralogical Reasoning from Decision-Theoretic Leakage

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnefon, Jean-Francois

2009-01-01

Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms…

Understanding caregivers' intentions for their child to walk to school: Further application of the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, Lisa; Kubacki, Krzysztof; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

2016-01-01

Increases in childhood obesity have coincided with declines in active transportation to school. This research builds on largely atheoretical extant literature examining factors that influence walk-to-school behavior through application of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Understanding caregivers' decision for their child to walk to/from school is key to developing interventions to promote this cost-effective and accessible health behavior. The results from an online survey of 512 caregivers provide support for the TPB, highlighting the important role of subjective norms. This suggests marketers should nurture caregivers' perception that important others approve of walking to school.

Student-Faculty Interactions about Disappointing Grades: Application of the Goals-Plans-Actions Model and the Theory of Planned Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Henningsen, Mary Lynn Miller; Valde, Kathleen S.; Russell, Gregory A.; Russell, Gregory R.

2011-01-01

The goals-plans-actions model and the theory of planned behavior were used to predict what lead to students having a conversation about a disappointing grade with a faculty member. Participants (N = 130) completed two surveys. In the first survey, participants completed measures of primary and secondary goals, planning, decision to engage,…

Application of preprocessing filtering on Decision Tree C4.5 and rough set theory

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Joseph C. C.; Lin, Tsau Y.

2001-03-01

This paper compares two artificial intelligence methods: the Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory on the stock market data. The Decision Tree C4.5 is reviewed with the Rough Set Theory. An enhanced window application is developed to facilitate the pre-processing filtering by introducing the feature (attribute) transformations, which allows users to input formulas and create new attributes. Also, the application produces three varieties of data set with delaying, averaging, and summation. The results prove the improvement of pre-processing by applying feature (attribute) transformations on Decision Tree C4.5. Moreover, the comparison between Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory is based on the clarity, automation, accuracy, dimensionality, raw data, and speed, which is supported by the rules sets generated by both algorithms on three different sets of data.

Theory of planned behavior applied to fish consumption in modern Metropolitan Lima

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angie HIGUCHI

Full Text Available Abstract Despite being an important source of protein, fish consumption in Peru is low compared with other coastal countries. Thus, the objective of this study is to identify the core determinants of such consumption. We based our analysis on the framework provided by the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB where attitudes, subjective norms, past experience and health involvement determine the intention and frequency of fish consumption. Primary data were gathered through 159 consumers of fish in modern Metropolitan Lima between August and October 2015. From a set of likert scale indicators a structural model was specified to evaluate the relationships given by the theoretical framework of the TPB. The results showed that the intention to eat fish is determined by personal attitudes, norms and past experience, and as expected, intention itself causes the frequency of fish consumption. Nonetheless, although consumers’ interest in healthy eating was shown to positively influence fish consumption behavior by theory, Metropolitan Lima fish consumers seem to be not concerned by positive health attributes related to fish consumption. These results may have important implications on production decisions, sales and marketing for the promotion of fish in Lima as a means of economic development.

Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

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Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

1981-01-01

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

Moral imagination: Facilitating prosocial decision-making through scene imagery and theory of mind.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaesser, Brendan; Keeler, Kerri; Young, Liane

2018-02-01

How we imagine and subjectively experience the future can inform how we make decisions in the present. Here, we examined a prosocial effect of imagining future episodes in motivating moral decisions about helping others in need, as well as the underlying cognitive mechanisms. Across three experiments we found that people are more willing to help others in specific situations after imagining helping them in those situations. Manipulating the spatial representation of imagined future episodes in particular was effective at increasing intentions to help others, suggesting that scene imagery plays an important role in the prosocial effect of episodic simulation. Path modeling analyses revealed that episodic simulation interacts with theory of mind in facilitating prosocial responses but can also operate independently. Moreover, we found that our manipulations of the imagined helping episode increased actual prosocial behavior, which also correlated with changes in reported willingness to help. Based on these findings, we propose a new model that begins to capture the multifaceted mechanisms by which episodic simulation contributes to prosocial decision-making, highlighting boundaries and promising future directions to explore. Implications for research in moral cognition, imagination, and patients with impairments in episodic simulation are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

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Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

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Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioral and Organizational Considerations in the Design of Information Systems and Processes for Planning and Decision Support,

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1981-06-01

Bayesian Decision Theory , Rule Utilitarianism , and Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem,,, Theory and Decision , vol. 11, 1979, pp. 289-317. 148. Haugeland, J... ethics , and personal values in making decisions ; and thinking oriented individuals,who rely on impersonal logical arguments in reaching decisions . Mason...this paper. 2.8. Among other efforts, Driver and Mock [83] developed de- cision style theory , a set of four decision styles based upon the

Theory, evidence and Intervention Mapping to improve behavior nutrition and physical activity interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferreira Isabel

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The present paper intends to contribute to the debate on the usefulness and barriers in applying theories in diet and physical activity behavior-change interventions. Discussion Since behavior theory is a reflection of the compiled evidence of behavior research, theory is the only foothold we have for the development of behavioral nutrition and physical activity interventions. Application of theory should improve the effectiveness of interventions. However, some of the theories we use lack a strong empirical foundation, and the available theories are not always used in the most effective way. Furthermore, many of the commonly-used theories provide at best information on what needs to be changed to promote healthy behavior, but not on how changes can be induced. Finally, many theories explain behavioral intentions or motivation rather well, but are less well-suited to explaining or predicting actual behavior or behavior change. For more effective interventions, behavior change theory needs to be further developed in stronger research designs and such change-theory should especially focus on how to promote action rather than mere motivation. Since voluntary behavior change requires motivation, ability as well as the opportunity to change, further development of behavior change theory should incorporate environmental change strategies. Conclusion Intervention Mapping may help to further improve the application of theories in nutrition and physical activity behavior change.

Theory-informed design of values clarification methods: a cognitive psychological perspective on patient health-related decision making.

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Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke; Kunneman, Marleen; Stiggelbout, Anne M; Feldman-Stewart, Deb

2013-01-01

Healthcare decisions, particularly those involving weighing benefits and harms that may significantly affect quality and/or length of life, should reflect patients' preferences. To support patients in making choices, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCM) in particular have been developed. VCM intend to help patients to determine the aspects of the choices that are important to their selection of a preferred option. Several types of VCM exist. However, they are often designed without clear reference to theory, which makes it difficult for their development to be systematic and internally coherent. Our goal was to provide theory-informed recommendations for the design of VCM. Process theories of decision making specify components of decision processes, thus, identify particular processes that VCM could aim to facilitate. We conducted a review of the MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases and of references to theories included in retrieved papers, to identify process theories of decision making. We selected a theory if (a) it fulfilled criteria for a process theory; (b) provided a coherent description of the whole process of decision making; and (c) empirical evidence supports at least some of its postulates. Four theories met our criteria: Image Theory, Differentiation and Consolidation theory, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction theory, and Fuzzy-trace Theory. Based on these, we propose that VCM should: help optimize mental representations; encourage considering all potentially appropriate options; delay selection of an initially favoured option; facilitate the retrieval of relevant values from memory; facilitate the comparison of options and their attributes; and offer time to decide. In conclusion, our theory-based design recommendations are explicit and transparent, providing an opportunity to test each in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of affect in decision making.

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Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

2013-01-01

Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaivanto, Kim

2014-12-01

Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A quantitative evolutionary theory of adaptive behavior dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, J J

2013-10-01

The idea that behavior is selected by its consequences in a process analogous to organic evolution has been discussed for over 100 years. A recently proposed theory instantiates this idea by means of a genetic algorithm that operates on a population of potential behaviors. Behaviors in the population are represented by numbers in decimal integer (phenotypic) and binary bit string (genotypic) forms. One behavior from the population is emitted at random each time tick, after which a new population of potential behaviors is constructed by recombining parent behavior bit strings. If the emitted behavior produced a benefit to the organism, then parents are chosen on the basis of their phenotypic similarity to the emitted behavior; otherwise, they are chosen at random. After parent behavior recombination, the population is subjected to a small amount of mutation by flipping random bits in the population's bit strings. The behavior generated by this process of selection, reproduction, and mutation reaches equilibrium states that conform to every empirically valid equation of matching theory, exactly and without systematic error. These equations are known to describe the behavior of many vertebrate species, including humans, in a variety of experimental, naturalistic, natural, and social environments. The evolutionary theory also generates instantaneous dynamics and patterns of preference change in constantly changing environments that are consistent with the dynamics of live-organism behavior. These findings support the assertion that the world of behavior we observe and measure is generated by evolutionary dynamics. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Technical Note: Application of Decision Theory Based Criteria for Structural Appraisal of a Building during Construction. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... reliability of concrete in a structure during construction, a case study of laboratory block for College of Continuing Education, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State.

A judgment and decision-making model for plant behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Karban, Richard; Orrock, John L

2018-06-12

Recently plant biologists have documented that plants, like animals, engage in many activities that can be considered as behaviors, although plant biologists currently lack a conceptual framework to understand these processes. Borrowing the well-established framework developed by psychologists, we propose that plant behaviors can be constructively modeled by identifying four distinct components: 1) a cue or stimulus that provides information, 2) a judgment whereby the plant perceives and processes this informative cue, 3) a decision whereby the plant chooses among several options based on their relative costs and benefits, and 4) action. Judgment for plants can be determined empirically by monitoring signaling associated with electrical, calcium, or hormonal fluxes. Decision-making can be evaluated empirically by monitoring gene expression or differential allocation of resources. We provide examples of the utility of this judgment and decision-making framework by considering cases in which plants either successfully or unsuccessfully induced resistance against attacking herbivores. Separating judgment from decision-making suggests new analytical paradigms (i.e., Bayesian methods for judgment and economic utility models for decision-making). Following this framework, we propose an experimental approach to plant behavior that explicitly manipulates the stimuli provided to plants, uses plants that vary in sensory abilities, and examines how environmental context affects plant responses. The concepts and approaches that follow from the judgment and decision-making framework can shape how we study and understand plant-herbivore interactions, biological invasions, plant responses to climate change, and the susceptibility of plants to evolutionary traps. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyo

2011-08-01

There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change: background and intervention development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Polly

2009-01-01

An essential characteristic of advanced practice nurses is the use of theory in practice. Clinical nurse specialists apply theory in providing or directing patient care, in their work as consultants to staff nurses, and as leaders influencing and facilitating system change. Knowledge of technology and pharmacology has far outpaced knowledge of how to facilitate health behavior change, and new theories are needed to better understand how practitioners can facilitate health behavior change. In this article, the Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change is described, and an example of its use as foundation to intervention development is presented. The Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change suggests that health behavior change can be enhanced by fostering knowledge and beliefs, increasing self-regulation skills and abilities, and enhancing social facilitation. Engagement in self-management behaviors is seen as the proximal outcome influencing the long-term distal outcome of improved health status. Person-centered interventions are directed to increasing knowledge and beliefs, self-regulation skills and abilities, and social facilitation. Using a theoretical framework improves clinical nurse specialist practice by focusing assessments, directing the use of best-practice interventions, and improving patient outcomes. Using theory fosters improved communication with other disciplines and enhances the management of complex clinical conditions by providing holistic, comprehensive care.

Game theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Dufwenberg, Martin

2011-03-01

Game theory is a toolkit for examining situations where decision makers influence each other. I discuss the nature of game-theoretic analysis, the history of game theory, why game theory is useful for understanding human psychology, and why game theory has played a key role in the recent explosion of interest in the field of behavioral economics. WIREs Cogni Sci 2011 2 167-173 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.119 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Moral Behavior as Rule Governed Behavior: Person and System Effects on Moral Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtines, William M.; And Others

Recent approaches to research on moral development have considered the preeminence of situational factors in moral development and moral behavior. An open systems approach emphasizes the interactive effects of person and situation variables on moral decision-making. The interactive effects of three sets of variables on moral decision-making were…

Behaviorism Makes Its Debut: A Review of Lattal and Chase's Behavior Theory and Philosophy

OpenAIRE

Zuriff, G.E

2005-01-01

Behavior Theory and Philosophy, masterfully edited by Lattal and Chase, is a collection of 21 papers by major behaviorists, presented and discussed at a conference on the intersection of philosophy and behavior analysis held at West Virginia University in 2000. The chapters in Part I are devoted to philosophy of science (causality, constructs, theory, explanation, reductionism) and the relations among behavior analysis and several contemporary philosophical movements (humanism, empiricism, pr...

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy. Second Edition. Theories of Psychotherapy Series

Science.gov (United States)

Craske, Michelle G.

2017-01-01

In this revised edition of "Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy," Michelle G. Craske discusses the history, theory, and practice of this commonly practiced therapy. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) originated in the science and theory of classical and instrumental conditioning when cognitive principles were adopted following dissatisfaction…

Theory-driven intervention for changing personality: expectancy value theory, behavioral activation, and conscientiousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Magidson, Jessica F; Roberts, Brent W; Collado-Rodriguez, Anahi; Lejuez, C W

2014-05-01

Considerable evidence suggests that personality traits may be changeable, raising the possibility that personality traits most linked to health problems can be modified with intervention. A growing body of research suggests that problematic personality traits may be altered with behavioral intervention using a bottom-up approach. That is, by targeting core behaviors that underlie personality traits with the goal of engendering new, healthier patterns of behavior that, over time, become automatized and manifest in changes in personality traits. Nevertheless, a bottom-up model for changing personality traits is somewhat diffuse and requires clearer integration of theory and relevant interventions to enable real clinical application. As such, this article proposes a set of guiding principles for theory-driven modification of targeted personality traits using a bottom-up approach, focusing specifically on targeting the trait of conscientiousness using a relevant behavioral intervention, Behavioral Activation (BA), considered within the motivational framework of expectancy value theory (EVT). We conclude with a real case example of the application of BA to alter behaviors counter to conscientiousness in a substance-dependent patient, highlighting the EVT principles most relevant to the approach and the importance and viability of a theoretically driven, bottom-up approach to changing personality traits. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

A Decision Model Assessing the Owner and Contractor’s Conflict Behaviors in Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangdong Wu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Considering the effects of the contractor’s conflict behaviors on the project benefit, a decision model between the owner and contractor’s conflict behaviors in construction projects was constructed using the principal-agent theory and game theory. The model was analyzed under nonconflicting and conflicting conditions, and a numerical simulation and example analysis were proposed to verify the constructed model’s conclusion. The results showed that the effort levels of the owner and contractor not only relate to benefit-sharing coefficient and effort outcome coefficient but also depend on the contractor’s ability of converting the conflict into benefit and the loss caused by conflict behaviors. A higher ability of converting conflicts into benefits and lower levels of the loss caused by conflict behaviors for the contractor lead to lower levels of the net benefit of the owner, conversely higher levels of the net benefit of the contractor. Balancing the contractor’s ability of converting conflicts into benefits and the loss caused by conflict behaviors lead to a more reasonable risk allocation between the owner and contractor, improving the effort level and net benefit. To add value to the construction project, the owner should establish an impartial and reasonable benefit-sharing mechanism, optimize the owner and contractor’s resource arrangement, maximize the positive effect of conflict on project benefits, and avoid the negative effect of conflict. Few studies to date have investigated the effects of conflict behaviors on project benefits in terms of modeling and simulation in construction projects. As such, this study bridges this gap and contributes significant theoretical and practical insights about managing conflict behaviors in an interorganizational context, thus enhancing performance in construction projects.

A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

2003-01-01

This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

Using Office Discipline Referral Data for Decision Making about Student Behavior in Elementary and Middle Schools: An Empirical Evaluation of Validity

Science.gov (United States)

Irvin, Larry K.; Horner, Robert H.; Ingram, Kimberly; Todd, Anne W.; Sugai, George; Sampson, Nadia Katul; Boland, Joseph B.

2006-01-01

In this evaluation we used Messick's construct validity as a conceptual framework for an empirical study assessing the validity of use, utility, and impact of office discipline referral (ODR) measures for data-based decision making about student behavior in schools. The Messick approach provided a rubric for testing the fit of our theory of use of…

Health Care Waste Segregation Behavior among Health Workers in Uganda: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Akulume, Martha; Kiwanuka, Suzanne N

2016-01-01

Objective . The goal of this study was to assess the appropriateness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting health care waste segregation behaviors and to examine the factors that influence waste segregation behaviors. Methodology . One hundred and sixty-three health workers completed a self-administered questionnaire in a cross-sectional survey that examined the theory of planned behavior constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention) and external variables (sociodemographic factors, personal characteristics, organizational characteristics, professional characteristics, and moral obligation). Results . For their most recent client 21.5% of the health workers reported that they most definitely segregated health care waste while 5.5% did not segregate. All the theory of planned behavior constructs were significant predictors of health workers' segregation behavior, but intention emerged as the strongest and most significant ( r = 0.524, P theory of planned behavior model explained 52.5% of the variance in health workers' segregation behavior. When external variables were added, the new model explained 66.7% of the variance in behavior. Conclusion . Generally, health workers' health care waste segregation behavior was high. The theory of planned behavior significantly predicted health workers' health care waste segregation behaviors.

Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

2011-10-01

Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

UNDERSTANDING THE SUBJECT´S BEHAVIOR IN THE INTERACTION WITH A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM UNDER TIME PRESSURE AND MISSING INFORMATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathiane Benedetti Corso

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The article seeks to determine how time pressure and missing information in decision-making affect the behavior of decision makers. Data was collected through an experimental task of simulating the purchase of a car, which was structured with the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process multi-criteria method in a Decision Support System. When pressured by time, the experimental subjects focused on the car of their choice; whereas with no time pressure, some of them rationalized more, used the information, and did not agree with the chosen car. Assumptions of the Theory of Image justified some findings, indicating that previously structured images in the mind of the decision maker are a way to cope with time pressure. Given the missing information, the use of background knowledge and individual experience were the most prominent coping strategy.

Doing what's right: A grounded theory of ethical decision-making in occupational therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

VanderKaay, Sandra; Letts, Lori; Jung, Bonny; Moll, Sandra E

2018-04-20

Ethical decision-making is an important aspect of reasoning in occupational therapy practice. However, the process of ethical decision-making within the broader context of reasoning is yet to be clearly explicated. The purpose of this study was to advance a theoretical understanding of the process by which occupational therapists make ethical decisions in day-to-day practice. A constructivist grounded theory approach was adopted, incorporating in-depth semi-structured interviews with 18 occupational therapists from a range of practice settings and years of experience. Initially, participants nominated as key informants who were able to reflect on their decision-making processes were recruited. Theoretical sampling informed subsequent stages of data collection. Participants were asked to describe their process of ethical decision-making using scenarios from clinical practice. Interview transcripts were analyzed using a systematic process of initial then focused coding, and theoretical categorization to construct a theory regarding the process of ethical decision-making. An ethical decision-making prism was developed to capture three main processes: Considering the Fundamental Checklist, Consulting Others, and Doing What's Right. Ethical decision-making appeared to be an inductive and dialectical process with the occupational therapist at its core. Study findings advance our understanding of ethical decision-making in day-to-day clinical practice.

Behaviorism Makes Its Debut: A Review of Lattal and Chase's Behavior Theory and Philosophy

Science.gov (United States)

Zuriff, G.E

2005-01-01

Behavior Theory and Philosophy, masterfully edited by Lattal and Chase, is a collection of 21 papers by major behaviorists, presented and discussed at a conference on the intersection of philosophy and behavior analysis held at West Virginia University in 2000. The chapters in Part I are devoted to philosophy of science (causality, constructs, theory, explanation, reductionism) and the relations among behavior analysis and several contemporary philosophical movements (humanism, empiricism, pragmatism, selectionism, analytic philosophy). Part II examines behavior-analytic interpretations of mentalistic concepts (intention, imagination, ethics, cognition). Part III presents extensions and applications of basic research in behavior analysis (verbal behavior, creativity, development, education, disability, and corporate culture). The publication of this book signals that behaviorism has developed mature philosophical foundations.

Health decision making: lynchpin of evidence-based practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Spring, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers' intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed.

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Kirlik, Alex

1990-01-01

Ongoing research investigating perceptual and contextual influences on skilled human performance in dynamic decision making environments is discussed. The research is motivated by two general classes of findings in recent decision making research. First, many studies suggest that the concrete context in which a task is presented has strong influences on the psychological processes used to perform the task and on subsequent performance. Second, studies of skilled behavior in a wide variety of task environments typically implicate the perceptual system as an important contributor to decision-making performance, either in its role as a mediator between the current decision context and stored knowledge, or as a mechanism capable of directly initiating activity through the development of a 'trained eye.' Both contextual and perceptual influences place limits on the ability of traditional utility-theoretic accounts of decision-making to guide display design, as variance in behavior due to contextual factors or the development of a perceptual skill is left unexplained. The author outlines a framework in which to view questions of perceptual and contextual influences on behavior and describe an experimental task and analysis technique which will be used to diagnose the possible role of perception in skilled decision making performance.

Development of a program theory for shared decision-making: a realist review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Groot, Gary; Waldron, Tamara; Carr, Tracey; McMullen, Linda; Bandura, Lori-Ann; Neufeld, Shelley-May; Duncan, Vicky

2017-06-17

The practicality of applying evidence to healthcare systems with the aim of implementing change is an ongoing challenge for practitioners, policy makers, and academics. Shared decision- making (SDM), a method of medical decision-making that allows a balanced relationship between patients, physicians, and other key players in the medical decision process, is purported to improve patient and system outcomes. Despite the oft-mentioned benefits, there are gaps in the current literature between theory and implementation that would benefit from a realist approach given the value of this methodology to analyze complex interventions. In this protocol, we outline a study that will explore: "In which situations, how, why, and for whom does SDM between patients and health care providers contribute to improved decision making?" A seven step iterative process will be described including preliminary theory development, establishment of a search strategy, selection and appraisal of literature, data extraction, analysis and synthesis of extracted results from literature, and formation of a revised program theory with the input of patients, physicians, nurse navigators, and policy makers from a stakeholder session. The goal of the realist review will be to identify and refine a program theory for SDM through the identification of mechanisms which shape the characteristics of when, how, and why SDM will, and will not, work. PROSPERO CRD42017062609.

A Behavioral Theory of Human Capital Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jesper

design in fostering the integration and use of human capital is bounded by individual cognitive limitations that may lead employees to deviate from expected behavior, both individually and in collaboration. The thesis consists of three research papers relying on comprehensive longitudinal project data...... with one another. The overarching contribution of the thesis is to demonstrate, through the combination of psychological and organizational theory, how the ability of firms to properly activate and apply the knowledge held by their employees is fundamentally contingent on the interplay of cognitive...... of a behavioral theory of human capital integration....

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of "Random Cumulative Prospect Theory." A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences.

QTest: Quantitative Testing of Theories of Binary Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P.; Lim, Shiau Hong; Guo, Ying; Popova, Anna; Zwilling, Chris; Cha, Yun-Shil; Messner, William

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is to make modeling and quantitative testing accessible to behavioral decision researchers interested in substantive questions. We provide a novel, rigorous, yet very general, quantitative diagnostic framework for testing theories of binary choice. This permits the nontechnical scholar to proceed far beyond traditionally rather superficial methods of analysis, and it permits the quantitatively savvy scholar to triage theoretical proposals before investing effort into complex and specialized quantitative analyses. Our theoretical framework links static algebraic decision theory with observed variability in behavioral binary choice data. The paper is supplemented with a custom-designed public-domain statistical analysis package, the QTest software. We illustrate our approach with a quantitative analysis using published laboratory data, including tests of novel versions of “Random Cumulative Prospect Theory.” A major asset of the approach is the potential to distinguish decision makers who have a fixed preference and commit errors in observed choices from decision makers who waver in their preferences. PMID:24999495

Learning Theory and Prosocial Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenhan, D. L.

1972-01-01

Although theories of learning which stress the role of reinforcement can help us understand altruistic behaviors, it seems clear that a more complete comprehension calls for an expansion of our notions of learning, such that they incorporate affect and cognition. (Author/JM)

Understanding parental behavior in pediatric palliative care: Attachment theory as a paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearney, Joan A; Byrne, Mary W

2015-12-01

The objective of this conceptual paper was to present important constructs in attachment theory as they apply to parent and caregiver behavior in pediatric palliative care. Clarification of these constructs is provided with specific reference to their clinical application as well as their reflection in current empirical literature. Social attachment theory is proposed as a developmentally contextual model for the study of parenting in pediatric palliative and end-of-life care. A comprehensive search was conducted of pertinent literatures. These included classic as well as recent theory and research in attachment theory in addition to the empirical literatures on parent and family experience in pediatric palliative care, serious illness, and beyond to parental bereavement. Other relevant literature was examined with respect to the phenomena of concern. The empirical literature in pediatric palliative care supports the use of central concepts in attachment theory as foundational for further inquiry. This is evidenced in the emphasis on the importance of parental protection of the child, as well as executive activities such as decision making and other prominent parental operations, parental psychological resolution of the child's diagnosis and illness as well as coping and meaning making, and the core significance of parental relationships with providers who provide secure-base and safe-haven functions. The promise for developing integrated, conceptually based interventions from construction through implementation is of urgent importance to children and families receiving pediatric palliative care services. Focusing on key parental behaviors and processes within the context of a well-studied and contextually appropriate model will inform this task efficiently. The attachment paradigm meets these criteria and has promise in allowing us to move forward in developing well-defined, inclusive, and conceptually grounded protocols for child and family psychosocial research

An Introduction to Item Response Theory for Health Behavior Researchers

Science.gov (United States)

Warne, Russell T.; McKyer, E. J. Lisako; Smith, Matthew L.

2012-01-01

Objective: To introduce item response theory (IRT) to health behavior researchers by contrasting it with classical test theory and providing an example of IRT in health behavior. Method: Demonstrate IRT by fitting the 2PL model to substance-use survey data from the Adolescent Health Risk Behavior questionnaire (n = 1343 adolescents). Results: An…

Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

2004-05-01

Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

Health Care Waste Segregation Behavior among Health Workers in Uganda: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martha Akulume

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. The goal of this study was to assess the appropriateness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting health care waste segregation behaviors and to examine the factors that influence waste segregation behaviors. Methodology. One hundred and sixty-three health workers completed a self-administered questionnaire in a cross-sectional survey that examined the theory of planned behavior constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention and external variables (sociodemographic factors, personal characteristics, organizational characteristics, professional characteristics, and moral obligation. Results. For their most recent client 21.5% of the health workers reported that they most definitely segregated health care waste while 5.5% did not segregate. All the theory of planned behavior constructs were significant predictors of health workers’ segregation behavior, but intention emerged as the strongest and most significant (r=0.524, P<0.001. The theory of planned behavior model explained 52.5% of the variance in health workers’ segregation behavior. When external variables were added, the new model explained 66.7% of the variance in behavior. Conclusion. Generally, health workers’ health care waste segregation behavior was high. The theory of planned behavior significantly predicted health workers’ health care waste segregation behaviors.

An EGR performance evaluation and decision-making approach based on grey theory and grey entropy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zu, Xianghuan; Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Hechun; Wang, Yinyan

2018-01-01

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is one of the main methods of reducing NOX emissions and has been widely used in marine diesel engines. This paper proposes an optimized comprehensive assessment method based on multi-objective grey situation decision theory, grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis to evaluate the performance and optimize rate determination of EGR, which currently lack clear theoretical guidance. First, multi-objective grey situation decision theory is used to establish the initial decision-making model according to the main EGR parameters. The optimal compromise between diesel engine combustion and emission performance is transformed into a decision-making target weight problem. After establishing the initial model and considering the characteristics of EGR under different conditions, an optimized target weight algorithm based on grey relation theory and grey entropy analysis is applied to generate the comprehensive evaluation and decision-making model. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to a TBD234V12 turbocharged diesel engine, and the results clearly illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method for providing theoretical support and a reference for further EGR optimization.

On-line social decision making and antisocial behavior: some essential but neglected issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, Reid Griffith

2008-01-01

The last quarter century has witnessed considerable progress in the scientific study of social information processing (SIP) and aggressive behavior in children. SIP research has shown that social decision making in youth is particularly predictive of antisocial behavior, especially as children enter and progress through adolescence. In furtherance of this research, more sophisticated, elaborate models of on-line social decision making have been developed, by which various domains of evaluative judgment are hypothesized to account for both responsive decision making and behavior, as well as self-initiated, instrumental functioning. However, discussions of these models have neglected a number of key issues. In particular, the roles of nonconscious cognitive factors, learning and development, impulsivity and behavioral disinhibition, emotion, and other internal and external factors (e.g., pharmacological influences and audience effects) have been largely absent from scholarly writings. In response, this article introduces discussion of these factors and reviews their possible roles in on-line social decision making and antisocial behavior in youth.

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

Science.gov (United States)

Mohaidin, Zurina

2017-01-01

To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research. PMID:28690701

Models and theories of prescribing decisions: A review and suggested a new model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Murshid M

2017-06-01

Full Text Available To date, research on the prescribing decisions of physician lacks sound theoretical foundations. In fact, drug prescribing by doctors is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Most of the existing studies in the area of drug prescription explain the process of decision-making by physicians via the exploratory approach rather than theoretical. Therefore, this review is an attempt to suggest a value conceptual model that explains the theoretical linkages existing between marketing efforts, patient and pharmacist and physician decision to prescribe the drugs. The paper follows an inclusive review approach and applies the previous theoretical models of prescribing behaviour to identify the relational factors. More specifically, the report identifies and uses several valuable perspectives such as the ‘persuasion theory - elaboration likelihood model’, the stimuli–response marketing model’, the ‘agency theory’, the theory of planned behaviour,’ and ‘social power theory,’ in developing an innovative conceptual paradigm. Based on the combination of existing methods and previous models, this paper suggests a new conceptual model of the physician decision-making process. This unique model has the potential for use in further research.

Quantum Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Game Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.; Khrennikov, A.; Basieva, I.

2011-01-01

Recently a few authors pointed to a possibility to apply the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to cognitive psychology, in particular, to games of the Prisoners Dilemma (PD) type.6_18 In this paper, we discuss the problem of rationality in game theory and point out that the quantum uncertainty is similar to the uncertainty of knowledge, which a player feels subjectively in his decision-making.

Statistics and Probability Theory In Pursuit of Engineering Decision Support

CERN Document Server

Faber, Michael Havbro

2012-01-01

This book provides the reader with the basic skills and tools of statistics and probability in the context of engineering modeling and analysis. The emphasis is on the application and the reasoning behind the application of these skills and tools for the purpose of enhancing  decision making in engineering. The purpose of the book is to ensure that the reader will acquire the required theoretical basis and technical skills such as to feel comfortable with the theory of basic statistics and probability. Moreover, in this book, as opposed to many standard books on the same subject, the perspective is to focus on the use of the theory for the purpose of engineering model building and decision making.  This work is suitable for readers with little or no prior knowledge on the subject of statistics and probability.

Effects of environmental enrichment on decision-making behavior in pigs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Staay, F.J.; van Zutphen, Johanna A.; de Ridder, Mirjam M.; Nordquist, R.E.

2017-01-01

The animal’s emotional state, potentially modulated by environmental conditions, may affect cognitive processes such as interpretation, judgement and decision making behaviour. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is a common method to examine decision making behavior in humans in terms of risk avoidance

The relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Commendador, Kathleen

2007-11-01

To examine the relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior in multiethnic, 14- to 17-year-olds, residing on the Big Island of Hawaii. This was a descriptive cross-sectional survey design using a convenience sample of 98 female adolescents aged 14-17 who came to five different clinics on the Big Island of Hawaii for health care. Along with a brief demographic questionnaire, global self-esteem was measured by Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale, decision making was measured by the Flinders Adolescent Decision Making Questionnaire, and sexual activity and contraception use was measured by a nonnormed Sexual History and Contraceptive Use Questionnaire developed for this study. Descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and correlations were used to analyze associations and correlations between age, global self-esteem, decision self-esteem, decision coping (vigilant and maladaptive), and contraceptive use for sexually active female adolescents. No significant associations or correlations were found between age, global self-esteem, decision self-esteem, decision coping (vigilance), and the decision to use contraception in sexually active adolescent females. There was, however, significant negative correlation (p skills and stimulating thinking around not only sexual issues but also on relationship and communication in adolescent issues may facilitate more competent decision making. Understanding the relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior has contributed to the knowledge base about female contraceptive behavior. Gaining further insight into these relationships will help healthcare professionals provide counseling and health care to female adolescents.

Aquatic Instructors' Beliefs Toward Inclusion: The Theory of Planned Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Conatser, Phillip; Block, Martin; Gansneder, Bruce

2002-04-01

The purpose was to (a) examine aquatic instructors' beliefs (female, n = 82; male, n = 29) about teaching swimming to individuals with disabilities in inclusive settings and (b) test the theory of planned behavior model (Ajzen, 1985, 1988, 2001). Aquatic instructors from 25 states representing 122 cities across the U.S. participated in this study. The instrument, named Aquatic Instructors' Beliefs Toward Inclusion (AIBTI), was an extended version of the Physical Educators' Attitudes Toward Teaching Individuals with Disabilities- Swim (Conatser, Block, & Lepore, 2000). A correlated t test showed aquatic instructors' beliefs (attitudes toward the behavior, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, intention, behavior) were significantly more favorable toward teaching aquatics to individuals with mild disabilities than individuals with severe disabilities. Stepwise multiple regression showed perceived behavioral control and attitude significantly predicted intention, and intention predicted instructors' inclusive behavior for both disability groups. Further, results indicated the theory of planned behavior predicts aquatic instructors' behavior better than the theory of reasoned action.

Predicting Facebook users' online privacy protection: risk, trust, norm focus theory, and the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Saeri, Alexander K; Ogilvie, Claudette; La Macchia, Stephen T; Smith, Joanne R; Louis, Winnifred R

2014-01-01

The present research adopts an extended theory of the planned behavior model that included descriptive norms, risk, and trust to investigate online privacy protection in Facebook users. Facebook users (N = 119) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective injunctive norm, subjective descriptive norm, perceived behavioral control, implicit perceived risk, trust of other Facebook users, and intentions toward protecting their privacy online. Behavior was measured indirectly 2 weeks after the study. The data show partial support for the theory of planned behavior and strong support for the independence of subjective injunctive and descriptive norms. Risk also uniquely predicted intentions over and above the theory of planned behavior, but there were no unique effects of trust on intentions, nor of risk or trust on behavior. Implications are discussed.

PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

OpenAIRE

Popovici Ioana; Tulai Constantin

2010-01-01

The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strat...

The bounds of reason game theory and the unification of the behavioral sciences

CERN Document Server

Gintis, Herbert

2014-01-01

Game theory is central to understanding human behavior and relevant to all of the behavioral sciences-from biology and economics, to anthropology and political science. However, as The Bounds of Reason demonstrates, game theory alone cannot fully explain human behavior and should instead complement other key concepts championed by the behavioral disciplines. Herbert Gintis shows that just as game theory without broader social theory is merely technical bravado, so social theory without game theory is a handicapped enterprise. This edition has been thoroughly revised and updated. Reinvigorati

Constructing New Theory for Identifying Students with Emotional Disturbance: A Constructivist Approach to Grounded Theory

OpenAIRE

Dori Barnett

2012-01-01

A grounded theory study that examined how practitioners in a county alternative and correctional education setting identify youth with emotional and behavioral difficulties for special education services provides an exemplar for a constructivist approach to grounded theory methodology. Discussion focuses on how a constructivist orientation to grounded theory methodology informed research decisions, shaped the development of the emergent grounded theory, and prompted a way of thinking about da...

Organizational Theory and Leadership Navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Brazer, S. David; Kruse, Sharon D.; Conley, Sharon

2014-01-01

Teaching organizational theory in a way that bridges to leadership practice is vital to preparing deft educational leaders who understand the organizational behavior of schools and districts. Organizational theory guides understanding of the complexities of schools and districts and can be a basis for collaborative and effective decision making.…

Decision theory on the quality evaluation of medical images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lessa, Patricia Silva

2001-10-01

The problem of quality has been a constant issue in every organization.One is always seeking to produce more, to do it at a lower cost, and to do it with better quality. However, in this country, there is no radiographic film quality control system for radiographic services. The tittle that actually gets done is essentially ad hoc and superficial. The implications of this gap, along with some other shortcomings that exist in process as a whole (the state of the x-ray equipment, the adequate to use in order to obtain a radiography, the quality of the film, the processing of the film, the brightness and homogeneity of the viewing boxes, the ability of the radiologist), have a very negative impact on the quality of the medical image, and, as result, to the quality of the medical diagnosis and therapy. It frequently happens that many radiographs have to be repeated, which leads to an increase of the patient's exposure to radiation, as well as of the cost of the procedure for the patient. Low quality radiographs that are not repeated greatly increase the probability of a wrong diagnosis, and consequently, of inadequate therapeutical procedures, thus producing increased incidence of bad outcomes and higher costs. The paradigm proposed in order to establish a system for the measurement of the image's quality is Decision Theory. The problem of the assessment of the image is studied by proposing a Decision Theory approach. The review of the literature reveals a great concern with the quality of the image, along with an absence of an adequate paradigm and several essentially empirical procedures. Image parameters are developed in order to formalize the problem in terms of Decision Theory, and various aspects of image digitalisation are exposed. Finally, a solution is presented, including a protocol for quality control. (author)

On the short distance behavior of string theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guida, R.; Konishi, K.; Provero, P.

1991-01-01

Short distance behavior of string theories is investigated by the use of the discretized path-integral formulation. In particular, the minimum physical length and the generalized uncertainty relation are re-derived from a set of Ward-Takahashi identities. In this paper several issues related to the form of the generalized uncertainty relation and to its implications are discussed. A consistent qualitative picture of short distance behavior of string theory seems to emerge from such a study

Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

OpenAIRE

John M. Gowdy

2007-01-01

The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

Prospect theory and the decision to move or stay.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, William A V; Lisowski, William

2017-09-05

Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.

From psychological need satisfaction to intentional behavior: testing a motivational sequence in two behavioral contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagger, Martin S; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D; Harris, Jemma

2006-02-01

The present study tested a motivational sequence in which global-level psychological need satisfaction from self-determination theory influenced intentions and behavior directly and indirectly through contextual-level motivation and situational-level decision-making constructs from the theory of planned behavior. Two samples of university students (N = 511) completed measures of global-level psychological need satisfaction, contextual-level autonomous motivation, and situational-level attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intentions, and behavior in two behavioral contexts: exercise and dieting. A structural equation model supported the proposed sequence in both samples. The indirect effect was present for exercise behavior, whereas both direct and indirect effects were found for dieting behavior. Findings independently supported the component theories and provided a comprehensive integrated explanation of volitional behavior.

Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

Understanding older adults' medication decision making and behavior: A study on over-the-counter (OTC) anticholinergic medications.

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, Richard J; Srinivas, Preethi; Campbell, Noll L; Clark, Daniel O; Bodke, Kunal S; Hong, Youngbok; Boustani, Malaz A; Ferguson, Denisha; Callahan, Christopher M

2018-03-06

Older adults purchase and use over-the-counter (OTC) medications with potentially significant adverse effects. Some OTC medications, such as those with anticholinergic effects, are relatively contraindicated for use by older adults due to evidence of impaired cognition and other adverse effects. To inform the design of future OTC medication safety interventions for older adults, this study investigated consumers' decision making and behavior related to OTC medication purchasing and use, with a focus on OTC anticholinergic medications. The study had a cross-sectional design with multiple methods. A total of 84 adults participated in qualitative research interviews (n = 24), in-store shopper observations (n = 39), and laboratory-based simulated OTC shopping tasks (n = 21). Simulated shopping participants also rank-ordered eight factors on their importance for OTC decision making. Findings revealed that many participants had concerns about medication adverse effects, generally, but were not aware of age-related risk associated with the use of anticholinergic medications. Analyses produced a map of the workflow of OTC-related behavior and decision making as well as related barriers such as difficulty locating medications or comparing them to an alternative. Participants reported effectiveness, adverse effects or health risks, and price as most important to their OTC medication purchase and use decisions. A persona analysis identified two types of consumers: the habit follower, who frequently purchased OTC medications and considered them safe; and the deliberator, who was more likely to weigh their options and consider alternatives to OTC medications. A conceptual model of OTC medication purchase and use is presented. Drawing on study findings and behavioral theories, the model depicts dual processes for OTC medication decision making - habit-based and deliberation-based - as well as the antecedents and consequences of decision making. This model suggests

The Use of Game Theory for Making Rational Decisions in Business Negations: A Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kestutis Peleckis

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: The objective of this paper is a comparative analysis of the world literature on game theory and its applicability for rational decision-making in negotiations and creation of a model supporting strategic decisions in negotiations. Research Design & Methods: Systematic, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis of the scientific literature. In order to create an algorithm of negotiations statements on theory of graphs, game theory and theory of heuristic algorithm were applied. Findings: The article proposes an algorithm which combines the game theory approach with heuristic algorithms in order to reflect the specifics of negotiations better. Such an algorithm can be used to support strategic decisions in negotiations and is useful for better understanding of the strategic management of negotiating processes. Implications & Recommendations: The proposed mathematical algorithm for the strategy formulation of international business negotiations can be used in electronic business negotiations, both as a standalone tool, or as partially requiring support by the negotiator. Contribution & Value Added: The game theory methods support rational solutions in business negotiations, as they enable to analyse the interacting forces. This is particularly relevant in international business negotiations, where participants from different cultures can be faced with numerous uncertainties.

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

Behavior-aware decision support systems : LDRD final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirsch, Gary B.; Homer, Jack (Homer Consulting); Chenoweth, Brooke N.; Backus, George A.; Strip, David R.

2007-11-01

As Sandia National Laboratories serves its mission to provide support for the security-related interests of the United States, it is faced with considering the behavioral responses that drive problems, mitigate interventions, or lead to unintended consequences. The effort described here expands earlier works in using healthcare simulation to develop behavior-aware decision support systems. This report focuses on using qualitative choice techniques and enhancing two analysis models developed in a sister project.

Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2006-01-01

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

The Price Is Right, but Are the Bids? An Investigation of Rational Decision Theory.

OpenAIRE

Berk, Jonathan B; Hughson, Eric; Vandezande, Kirk

1996-01-01

The television game show The Price Is Right is used as a laboratory to conduct a preference-free test of rational decision theory in an environment with substantial economic incentives. It is found that contestants' strategies are transparently suboptimal. In response to this evidence, simple rules of thumb are developed that are shown to explain observed bidding patterns better than rational decision theory. Further, learning during the show reduces the frequency of strategic errors. This is...

The Effect of Conflict Theory Based Decision-Making Skill Training Psycho-Educational Group Experience on Decision Making Styles of Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Gucray, S. Sonay

2012-01-01

In this study, the effect of conflict theory based decision making skill training group applications on decision making styles of adolescents was investigated. A total of 36 students, including 18 students in experimental group and 18 students in control group, participated in the research. When assigning students to experimental group or control…

Neural Basis of Strategic Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung

2016-01-01

Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cultural Context and Modification of Behavior Change Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders Thompson, Vetta L.

2009-01-01

Although social and cultural contexts act on each level of the multilevel ecologic model to affect cancer risk, health behavior, and cancer screening and promotion in health behavior research, people have yet to develop theories that sufficiently integrate the social and environmental context with group and individual behavior. The "Behavioral…

Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

2014-02-01

There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision Making Among Older Adults at the End of Life: A Theoretical Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Romo, Rafael D; Dawson-Rose, Carol S; Mayo, Ann M; Wallhagen, Margaret I

Understanding changes in decision making among older adults across time is important for health care providers. We examined how older adults with a limited prognosis used their perception of prognosis and health in their decision-making processes and related these findings to prospect theory. The theme of decision making in the context of ambiguity emerged, reflecting how participants used both prognosis and health to value choices, a behavior not fully captured by prospect theory. We propose an extension of the theory that can be used to better visualize decision making at this unique time of life among older adults.

Explaining Consumer Safe Food Handling Through Behavior-Change Theories: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Ian; Reimer, Danielle; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Turgeon, Patricia; Waddell, Lisa

2017-11-01

Consumers often engage in unsafe food handling behaviors at home. Previous studies have investigated the ability of behavior-change theories to explain and predict these behaviors. The purpose of this review was to determine which theories are most consistently associated with consumers' safe food handling behaviors across the published literature. A standardized systematic review methodology was used, consisting of the following steps: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of identified references; confirmation of relevance and characterization of relevant articles; risk-of-bias assessment; data extraction; and descriptive analysis of study results. A total of 20 relevant studies were identified; they were mostly conducted in Australia (40%) and the United States (35%) and used a cross-sectional design (65%). Most studies targeted young adults (65%), and none focused on high-risk consumer groups. The outcomes of 70% of studies received high overall risk-of-bias ratings, largely due to a lack of control for confounding variables. The most commonly applied theory was the Theory of Planned Behavior (45% of studies), which, along with other investigated theories of behavior change, was frequently associated with consumer safe food handling behavioral intentions and behaviors. However, overall, there was wide variation in the specific constructs found to be significantly associated and in the percentage of variance explained in each outcome across studies. The results suggest that multiple theories of behavior change can help to explain consumer safe food handling behaviors and could be adopted to guide the development of future behavior-change interventions. In these contexts, theories should be appropriately selected and adapted to meet the needs of the specific target population and context of interest.

Development of a simple 12-item theory-based instrument to assess the impact of continuing professional development on clinical behavioral intentions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

France Légaré

Full Text Available Decision-makers in organizations providing continuing professional development (CPD have identified the need for routine assessment of its impact on practice. We sought to develop a theory-based instrument for evaluating the impact of CPD activities on health professionals' clinical behavioral intentions.Our multipronged study had four phases. 1 We systematically reviewed the literature for instruments that used socio-cognitive theories to assess healthcare professionals' clinically-oriented behavioral intentions and/or behaviors; we extracted items relating to the theoretical constructs of an integrated model of healthcare professionals' behaviors and removed duplicates. 2 A committee of researchers and CPD decision-makers selected a pool of items relevant to CPD. 3 An international group of experts (n = 70 reached consensus on the most relevant items using electronic Delphi surveys. 4 We created a preliminary instrument with the items found most relevant and assessed its factorial validity, internal consistency and reliability (weighted kappa over a two-week period among 138 physicians attending a CPD activity. Out of 72 potentially relevant instruments, 47 were analyzed. Of the 1218 items extracted from these, 16% were discarded as improperly phrased and 70% discarded as duplicates. Mapping the remaining items onto the constructs of the integrated model of healthcare professionals' behaviors yielded a minimum of 18 and a maximum of 275 items per construct. The partnership committee retained 61 items covering all seven constructs. Two iterations of the Delphi process produced consensus on a provisional 40-item questionnaire. Exploratory factorial analysis following test-retest resulted in a 12-item questionnaire. Cronbach's coefficients for the constructs varied from 0.77 to 0.85.A 12-item theory-based instrument for assessing the impact of CPD activities on health professionals' clinical behavioral intentions showed adequate validity and

Theories of suicidal behavior applied to Sylvia Plath.

Science.gov (United States)

Lester, D

1998-01-01

The suicide of Sylvia Plath is examined from the perspective of 15 theories of suicidal behavior and is found to fit best with psychoanalytic and cognitive theories of suicide, in particular those of Aaron Beck, Henry Murray, and Edwin Shneidman.

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

"Leaky" Rationality: How Research on Behavioral Decision Making Challenges Normative Standards of Rationality.

Science.gov (United States)

Keys, Daniel J; Schwartz, Barry

2007-06-01

For more than 30 years, decision-making research has documented that people often violate various principles of rationality, some of which are so fundamental that theorists of rationality rarely bother to state them. We take these characteristics of decision making as a given but argue that it is problematic to conclude that they typically represent departures from rationality. The very psychological processes that lead to "irrational" decisions (e.g., framing, mental accounting) continue to exert their influence when one experiences the results of the decisions. That is, psychological processes that affect decisions may be said also to "leak" into one's experience. The implication is that formal principles of rationality do not provide a good enough normative standard against which to assess decision making. Instead, what is needed is a substantive theory of rationality-one that takes subjective experience seriously, considers both direct and indirect consequences of particular decisions, considers how particular decisions fit into life as a whole, and considers the effects of decisions on others. Formal principles may play a role as approximations of the substantive theory that can be used by theorists and decision makers in cases in which the formal principles can capture most of the relevant considerations and leakage into experience is negligible. © 2007 Association for Psychological Science.

Theory, evidence and Intervention Mapping to improve behavior nutrition and physical activity interventions.

OpenAIRE

Brug, Hans; Oenema, Anke; Ferreira, Isabel

2005-01-01

Abstract Background The present paper intends to contribute to the debate on the usefulness and barriers in applying theories in diet and physical activity behavior-change interventions. Discussion Since behavior theory is a reflection of the compiled evidence of behavior research, theory is the only foothold we have for the development of behavioral nutrition and physical activity interventions. Application of theory should improve the effectiveness of interventions. However, some of the the...

Relationships between self-determination theory and theory of planned behavior applied to physical activity and exercise behavior in chronic pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Jessica M; Iwanaga, Kanako; Chiu, Chung-Yi; Cotton, Brandi Parker; Deiches, Jon; Morrison, Blaise; Moser, Erin; Chan, Fong

2017-08-01

This study examined the relationships between self-determination theory (SDT) and theory of planned behavior (TpB) applied to physical activity and exercise behavior (PA&E) in people with chronic pain. Two hundred and eleven adults with chronic musculoskeletal pain (28 males and 183 females, age range 18 to 82 years, mean age 43 years) were recruited from online support groups and clinic networks in the United States. Participants completed SDT measures relevant to PA&E on perceived autonomy support, autonomy, competence, and relatedness, as well as TpB measures relevant to PA&E on intention, attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Correlational techniques and canonical correlation analysis were performed to examine the relationships and variance within and between theoretical dimensions. Overall, the SDT set accounted for 37% of the TpB variance and the TpB set accounted for 32% of the SDT set variance. The results indicate there are statistical similarities and differences between concepts in SDT and TpB models for PA&E. Using both empirical guidance and clinical expertise, researchers and practitioners should attempt to select and integrate non-redundant and complementary components from SDT, TpB, and other related health behavior theories.

Empirical essays on behavioral economics and lifecycle decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dillingh, Rik

2016-01-01

This dissertation consists of four empirical essays that study decisions on insurance, consumption and the accumulation and decumulation of wealth. The studies pay due attention to behavioral factors that may limit rationality, such as complexity and intertemporal choice. The first essay looks at

Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change: Background and Intervention Development

OpenAIRE

RYAN, POLLY

2009-01-01

An essential characteristic of advanced practice nurses is the use of theory in practice. Clinical nurse specialists apply theory in providing or directing patient care, in their work as consultants to staff nurses, and as leaders influencing and facilitating system change. Knowledge of technology and pharmacology has far outpaced knowledge of how to facilitate health behavior change, and new theories are needed to better understand how practitioners can facilitate health behavior change. In ...

A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

2012-11-01

The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Guest Editors’ Introduction On Understanding Ethical Behavior and Decision Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. de Cremer (David); D.M. Mayer (David); M. Schminke (Marshall)

2010-01-01

textabstractBehavioral ethics is an emerging field that takes an empirical, social scientific approach to the study of business ethics. In this special issue, we include six articles that fall within the domain of behavioral ethics and that focus on three themes—moral awareness, ethical decision

MODELING THE NEW FRANCHISE CREATION DECISION: THE RELEVANCE OF BEHAVIORAL REASONS

OpenAIRE

AGUIAR,HELDER DE SOUZA; PAULI,SERGI; YU,ABRAHAM SIN OIH; NASCIMENTO,PAULO TROMBONI DE SOUZA

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: Franchising is one of the fastest-growing operating modes in Brazil. In 2014, the Brazilian Franchising Association reported 2,492 active brands in the country. Some theories with an economic point of view, such as the agency theory, plural forms theory, or scarcity principle, explain why companies choose franchising. However, did the decision makers and founders of these franchises decide on this strategy taking only economic reasons into consideration? The purpose of this...

Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods Volume 2

CERN Document Server

Rao, R Venkata

2013-01-01

Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance ba...

Theory, evidence and Intervention Mapping to improve behavior nutrition and physical activity interventions.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Brug (Hans); A. Oenema (Anke); A. Ferreira (Isabel)

2005-01-01

textabstractBACKGROUND: The present paper intends to contribute to the debate on the usefulness and barriers in applying theories in diet and physical activity behavior-change interventions. DISCUSSION: Since behavior theory is a reflection of the compiled evidence of behavior research, theory is

The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

Science.gov (United States)

Jonsson, Jon E.

1991-01-01

The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

Infrared behaviors of SU(2 gauge theory

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Tuominen Kimmo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We will discuss some recent results in the determination of the location of the conformal window in SU(2 gauge theory with Nf fermions in the fundamental representation of the gauge group. In particular, we will demonstrate that the long distance behavior of the continuum theory with Nf = 6 is governed by an infrared stable fixed point.

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

2016-02-03

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules

An approach to children's smoking behavior using social cognitive learning theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bektas, Murat; Ozturk, Candan; Armstrong, Merry

2010-01-01

This review article discusses the theoretical principles of social cognitive learning theory and children's risk-taking behavior of cigarette smoking, along with preventive initiatives. Social cognitive learning theorists examine the behavior of initiating and sustained smoking using a social systems approach. The authors discuss the reciprocal determinism aspect of the theory as applied to the importance of individual factors, and environment and behavioral interactions that influence smoking behavior. Included is the concept of vicarious capability that suggests that smoking behavior is determined in response to and interaction with feedback provided by the environment. The principle of self-regulatory capability asserts that people have control over their own behavior and thus that behavior change is possible. The principle of self-efficacy proposes that high level of self-efficacy of an individual may decrease the behavior of attempting to or continuing to smoke. Examples of initiatives to be undertaken in order to prevent smoking in accordance with social cognitive learning theory are presented at the end of each principle.

Utility of the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior for predicting physician behavior: a prospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Millstein, S G

1996-09-01

The utility of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for prospectively predicting physicians' delivery of preventive services was compared. Primary care physicians (N = 765) completed 2 mail surveys at periods 6 months apart. The addition of perceived behavioral control to the TRA model significantly increased the variance accounted for in behavioral intention and subsequent behavior (p behavioral control had direct effects on behavior and interacted with social norms and behavioral intentions. Applications of models such as the TRA or TPB have focused primarily on predicting the behavioral intentions and behaviors of patients. Results suggest that these models have relevance for studying the behavior of health care providers as well.

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

OpenAIRE

Guo, Lisa

2017-01-01

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...

The Use of the Evidence from the Behavioral Sciences in the Organizational Decision-Making Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan MÎNJINĂ

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The important managerial decision-making and the development of policies, strategies, internal normative acts and procedures must be solid grounded for efficient achieving of their objectives. To this end, the evidence-based approach uses various types of evidence, a leading role having those scientific, and the critical thinking. The evidence from behavioral sciences is especially important when the decisions objectives involve behavioral elements. They also help to ensure the rationality of any decision-making process. The concern for the use of behavioral sciences research in the decision-making preceded the occurrence of evidence-based approach. The increased knowledge fund of organizations, the access to the best practices and to the relevant scientific research findings represent only the initial stages of the evidence-based approach implementation and functioning. The ensuring of their effective use calls for special skills training among staff, the creation of tools and organizational mechanisms and of a facilitating organizational culture. This paper argues the need to integrate two approaches that promote the decision-making based on scientific evidence, the evidence-based approach and the use of behavioral and social sciences in the decision-making, to potentiate the contribution of the behavioral sciences to the increasing of the decision-making efficiency. The efforts made in this paper had overall objective to prepare and facilitate the use of research evidence provided by behavioral sciences in the organizational decision-making process by presenting the main concepts and knowledge in the field and by proposing an outline procedure specifically developed.

Essays in behavioral economics : Applied game theory and experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mermer, A.G.

2014-01-01

Behavioral Economics aims at understanding the decision of economic agents who are not necessarily monetary utility maximizers and accounts for the fact that agents may have other concerns next to economic gain. This thesis contributes to the literature by studying the behavior of economic agents

The behavioral economics of health and health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Thomas

2013-01-01

People often make decisions in health care that are not in their best interest, ranging from failing to enroll in health insurance to which they are entitled, to engaging in extremely harmful behaviors. Traditional economic theory provides a limited tool kit for improving behavior because it assumes that people make decisions in a rational way, have the mental capacity to deal with huge amounts of information and choice, and have tastes endemic to them and not open to manipulation. Melding economics with psychology, behavioral economics acknowledges that people often do not act rationally in the economic sense. It therefore offers a potentially richer set of tools than provided by traditional economic theory to understand and influence behaviors. Only recently, however, has it been applied to health care. This article provides an overview of behavioral economics, reviews some of its contributions, and shows how it can be used in health care to improve people's decisions and health.

Behavioral Theory and Culture Special Issue: Authors' Response to Commentaries

Science.gov (United States)

Pasick, Rena J.; Burke, Nancy J.; Joseph, Galen

2009-01-01

This article presents the authors' response to commentaries that focus on the "Behavioral Constructs and Culture in Cancer Screening" (3Cs) study. The 3Cs study had an unremarkable beginning, with two colleagues discussing their frustration over the narrow range of behavioral theories and the limited guidance the theories offered for a study…

Health Care Waste Segregation Behavior among Health Workers in Uganda: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

OpenAIRE

Akulume, Martha; Kiwanuka, Suzanne N.

2016-01-01

Objective. The goal of this study was to assess the appropriateness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting health care waste segregation behaviors and to examine the factors that influence waste segregation behaviors. Methodology. One hundred and sixty-three health workers completed a self-administered questionnaire in a cross-sectional survey that examined the theory of planned behavior constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention) and externa...

Consumer behavior and decision making at beverage purchases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslav Foret

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The first part of the paper is devoted to the theoretical problems of consumer behavior and decision masking. In the second part is used so called “beer local patriotism” as an concrete example of the mentioned problems. The third part presents own empirical results from marketing research in the Czech Republic in October−November 2004. The fourth part contents description of the contemporary life style changes and its influences for consumer behavior. In the fifth part is the purchase seen as a part of the contemporary life style and entretaiment. The last part deals with the changes of consumer behavior in the shopping centres.

CONSUMERS' INTENTION TO ATTEND SOCCER EVENTS: APPLICATION AND EXTENSION OF THE THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOR.

Science.gov (United States)

Eddosary, Melfy; Ko, Yong Jae; Sagas, Michael; Kim, Hee Youn

2015-08-01

The purpose of this study was to identify important factors of consumers' intention to attend professional soccer events among Saudi Arabian soccer fans. To explore the decision-making process of this relatively understudied population, the theory of planned behavior was used as theoretical background. Particularly, this study measured the effect of attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control (time and money), and game importance on intention to attend, and examined the moderating role of commitment. Structural equation modeling (SEM) using 231 Saudi university students (M = 21.9 yr., SD = 1.21) indicate that attitude and game importance were significantly related to attendance intention. The effect of subjective norms was significant only for the low commitment group and game importance was more important for the low than the high commitment group.

Behavioral Decisions and Welfare (Replaced by CentER DP 2010-143)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

2010-01-01

What are the normative implications of behavioral economics? We study a model where the decisions a person makes, consciously or unconsciously, affect her psycholog- ical state (reference point, beliefs, expectations, self-image) which, in turn, impacts on her ranking over available decisions in the

Relative Thinking Theory

OpenAIRE

Ofer H. Azar

2005-01-01

The article presents a theory that I denote “Relative Thinking Theory,” which claims that people consider relative differences and not only absolute differences when making various economics decisions, even in those cases where the rational model dictates that people should consider only absolute differences. The article reviews experimental evidence for this behavior, summarizing briefly several experiments I conducted, as well as some earlier related literature. It then discusses how we can...

Decision-making in Swiss home-like childbirth: A grounded theory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Yvonne; Frank, Franziska; Schläppy Muntwyler, Franziska; Fleming, Valerie; Pehlke-Milde, Jessica

2017-12-01

Decision-making in midwifery, including a claim for shared decision-making between midwives and women, is of major significance for the health of mother and child. Midwives have little information about how to share decision-making responsibilities with women, especially when complications arise during birth. To increase understanding of decision-making in complex home-like birth settings by exploring midwives' and women's perspectives and to develop a dynamic model integrating participatory processes for making shared decisions. The study, based on grounded theory methodology, analysed 20 interviews of midwives and 20 women who had experienced complications in home-like births. The central phenomenon that arose from the data was "defining/redefining decision as a joint commitment to healthy childbirth". The sub-indicators that make up this phenomenon were safety, responsibility, mutual and personal commitments. These sub-indicators were also identified to influence temporal conditions of decision-making and to apply different strategies for shared decision-making. Women adopted strategies such as delegating a decision, making the midwife's decision her own, challenging a decision or taking a decision driven by the dynamics of childbirth. Midwives employed strategies such as remaining indecisive, approving a woman's decision, making an informed decision or taking the necessary decision. To respond to recommendations for shared responsibility for care, midwives need to strengthen their shared decision-making skills. The visual model of decision-making in childbirth derived from the data provides a framework for transferring clinical reasoning into practice. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual Coding Theory Explains Biphasic Collective Computation in Neural Decision-Making

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Bryan C. Daniels

2017-06-01

Full Text Available A central question in cognitive neuroscience is how unitary, coherent decisions at the whole organism level can arise from the distributed behavior of a large population of neurons with only partially overlapping information. We address this issue by studying neural spiking behavior recorded from a multielectrode array with 169 channels during a visual motion direction discrimination task. It is well known that in this task there are two distinct phases in neural spiking behavior. Here we show Phase I is a distributed or incompressible phase in which uncertainty about the decision is substantially reduced by pooling information from many cells. Phase II is a redundant or compressible phase in which numerous single cells contain all the information present at the population level in Phase I, such that the firing behavior of a single cell is enough to predict the subject's decision. Using an empirically grounded dynamical modeling framework, we show that in Phase I large cell populations with low redundancy produce a slow timescale of information aggregation through critical slowing down near a symmetry-breaking transition. Our model indicates that increasing collective amplification in Phase II leads naturally to a faster timescale of information pooling and consensus formation. Based on our results and others in the literature, we propose that a general feature of collective computation is a “coding duality” in which there are accumulation and consensus formation processes distinguished by different timescales.

Dual Coding Theory Explains Biphasic Collective Computation in Neural Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, Bryan C; Flack, Jessica C; Krakauer, David C

2017-01-01

A central question in cognitive neuroscience is how unitary, coherent decisions at the whole organism level can arise from the distributed behavior of a large population of neurons with only partially overlapping information. We address this issue by studying neural spiking behavior recorded from a multielectrode array with 169 channels during a visual motion direction discrimination task. It is well known that in this task there are two distinct phases in neural spiking behavior. Here we show Phase I is a distributed or incompressible phase in which uncertainty about the decision is substantially reduced by pooling information from many cells. Phase II is a redundant or compressible phase in which numerous single cells contain all the information present at the population level in Phase I, such that the firing behavior of a single cell is enough to predict the subject's decision. Using an empirically grounded dynamical modeling framework, we show that in Phase I large cell populations with low redundancy produce a slow timescale of information aggregation through critical slowing down near a symmetry-breaking transition. Our model indicates that increasing collective amplification in Phase II leads naturally to a faster timescale of information pooling and consensus formation. Based on our results and others in the literature, we propose that a general feature of collective computation is a "coding duality" in which there are accumulation and consensus formation processes distinguished by different timescales.

Contributions of Socialization Theory to Consumer Behavior Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Scott

1978-01-01

Socialization theory can contribute to consumer research because it focuses on (1) youth and development, (2) interaction of factors affecting consumer behavior, and (3) linkages between mental processes and overt behavior. Various approaches to socialization research and consumer research are described, including cognitive development and…

Rational decisions

CERN Document Server

Binmore, Ken

2008-01-01

It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

Purchase decision involvement: Event management segments and related event behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Rodney B. Warnick; David C. Bojanic

2012-01-01

The goal of this research was to examine the relationships between different levels of event purchase decision involvement (PDI) segments and their respective event behaviors (e.g., expenditures, travel behavior, event consumption and satisfaction). The specific purpose was to answer two major research questions: 1) Can PDI identify different levels or segments of...

Determinants of oral hygiene behavior : a study based on the theory of planned behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buunk-Werkhoven, Y.A.; Dijkstra, Arie; van der Schans, C.P.

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an index for oral hygiene behavior (OHB) and to examine potential predictors of this actual behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Measures of oral health knowledge (OHK) and the expected effect of having healthy teeth on social

Theory of planned behavior and adherence in chronic illness: a meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rich, A.; Brandes, K.; Mullan, B.; Hagger, M.S.

2015-01-01

Social-cognitive models such as the theory of planned behavior have demonstrated efficacy in predicting behavior, but few studies have examined the theory as a predictor of treatment adherence in chronic illness. We tested the efficacy of the theory for predicting adherence to treatment in chronic

Decision-making theories and their usefulness to the midwifery profession both in terms of midwifery practice and the education of midwives.

Science.gov (United States)

Jefford, Elaine; Fahy, Kathleen; Sundin, Deborah

2011-06-01

What are the strengths and limitations of existing Decision-Making Theories as a basis for guiding best practice clinical decision-making within a framework of midwifery philosophy? Each theory is compared in relation with how well they provide a teachable framework for midwifery clinical reasoning that is consistent with midwifery philosophy. Hypothetico-Deductive Theory, from which medical clinical reasoning is based; intuitive decision-making; Dual Processing Theory; The International Confederation of Midwives Clinical Decision-Making Framework; Australian Nursing and Midwifery Council Midwifery Practice Decisions Flowchart and Midwifery Practice. Best practice midwifery clinical Decision-Making Theory needs to give guidance about: (i) effective use of cognitive reasoning processes; (ii) how to include contextual and emotional factors; (iii) how to include the interests of the baby as an integral part of the woman; (iv) decision-making in partnership with woman; and (v) how to recognize/respond to clinical situations outside the midwife's legal/personal scope of practice. No existing Decision-Making Theory meets the needs of midwifery. Medical clinical reasoning has a good contribution to make in terms of cognitive reasoning processes. Two limitations of medical clinical reasoning are its reductionistic focus and privileging of reason to the exclusion of emotional and contextual factors. Hypothetico-deductive clinical reasoning is a necessary but insufficient condition for best practice clinical decision-making in midwifery. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Behavioral and social sciences theories and models: are they used in unintentional injury prevention research?

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Trifiletti, L B; Gielen, A C; Sleet, D A; Hopkins, K

2005-06-01

Behavioral and social sciences theories and models have the potential to enhance efforts to reduce unintentional injuries. The authors reviewed the published literature on behavioral and social science theory applications to unintentional injury problems to enumerate and categorize the ways different theories and models are used in injury prevention research. The authors conducted a systematic review to evaluate the published literature from 1980 to 2001 on behavioral and social science theory applications to unintentional injury prevention and control. Electronic database searches in PubMed and PsycINFO identified articles that combined behavioral and social sciences theories and models and injury causes. The authors identified some articles that examined behavioral and social science theories and models and unintentional injury topics, but found that several important theories have never been applied to unintentional injury prevention. Among the articles identified, the PRECEDE PROCEED Model was cited most frequently, followed by the Theory of Reasoned Action/Theory of Planned Behavior and Health Belief Model. When behavioral and social sciences theories and models were applied to unintentional injury topics, they were most frequently used to guide program design, implementation or develop evaluation measures; few examples of theory testing were found. Results suggest that the use of behavioral and social sciences theories and models in unintentional injury prevention research is only marginally represented in the mainstream, peer-reviewed literature. Both the fields of injury prevention and behavioral and social sciences could benefit from greater collaborative research to enhance behavioral approaches to injury control.

Sophisticated Approval Voting, Ignorance Priors, and Plurality Heuristics: A Behavioral Social Choice Analysis in a Thurstonian Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R.; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-01-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two…

On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

2008-12-15

In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

2008-01-01

In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

A Lesson on Social Role Theory: An Example of Human Behavior in the Social Environment Theory

OpenAIRE

Agnes M. Dulin

2007-01-01

This paper discusses the social role theory, a theory of Human Behavior in the Social Environment (HBSE). Relevance of this topic is briefly discussed, as well as a definition of the theory and its historical background. Empirical research that employs this theory will be discussed.Recommendations will be made for future theory development and implications for social work education will conclude the discussion.

Self-Determination Theory: Intrinsic Motivation and Behavioral Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Flannery, Marie

2017-03-01

Motivation is a central concept in behavioral change. This article reviews the self-determination theory with an emphasis on "intrinsic motivation," which is facilitated when three basic psychological needs (autonomy, competence, and relatedness) are met. Intrinsic motivation is associated with improved well-being and sustained behavioral change.

How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Corbin, Jonathan C; Reyna, Valerie F; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

2015-12-01

Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis.

Theory of planned behavior interventions for reducing heterosexual risk behaviors: A meta-analysis.

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Tyson, Mandy; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S

2014-12-01

The meta-analysis reported here examined interventions informed by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) or theory of reasoned action (TRA) aimed at reducing heterosexual risk behaviors (prevention of STDs and unwanted pregnancy). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were either randomized control trials or quasi-experimental studies that compared the TPB-based intervention against a control group. Search strategy consisted of articles identified in previous reviews, keyword search through search engines, examination of key journals, and contacting key experts. Forty-seven intervention studies were included in the meta-analysis. Random effects models revealed that pooled effect sizes for TPB-based interventions had small but significant effects on behavior and other secondary outcomes (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, and intentions). Significant heterogeneity found between effect sizes was explored using metaregression. Larger effects were found for interventions that provided opportunities for social comparison. The TPB provides a valuable framework for designing interventions to change heterosexual risk behaviors. However, effect sizes varied quite substantially between studies, and further research is needed to explore the reasons why.

[Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

2012-02-01

In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

Substitution in recreation choice behavior

Science.gov (United States)

George L. Peterson; Daniel J. Stynes; Donald H. Rosenthal; John F. Dwyer

1985-01-01

This review discusses concepts and theories of substitution in recreation choice. It brings together the literature of recreation research, psychology, geography, economics, and transportation. Parallel and complementary developments need integration into an improved theory of substitution. Recreation decision behavior is characterized as a nested or sequential choice...

Facilitating Group Decision-Making: Facilitator's Subjective Theories on Group Coordination

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Michaela Kolbe

2008-10-01

Full Text Available A key feature of group facilitation is motivating and coordinating people to perform their joint work. This paper focuses on group coordination which is a prerequisite to group effectiveness, especially in complex tasks. Decision-making in groups is a complex task that consequently needs to be coordinated by explicit rather than implicit coordination mechanisms. Based on the embedded definition that explicit coordination does not just happen but is purposely executed by individuals, we argue that individual coordination intentions and mechanisms should be taken into account. Thus far, the subjective perspective of coordination has been neglected in coordination theory, which is understandable given the difficulties in defining and measuring subjective aspects of group facilitation. We therefore conducted focused interviews with eight experts who either worked as senior managers or as experienced group facilitators and analysed their approaches to group coordination using methods of content analysis. Results show that these experts possess sophisticated mental representations of their coordination behaviour. These subjective coordination theories can be organised in terms of coordination schemes in which coordination-releasing situations are facilitated by special coordination mechanisms that, in turn, lead to the perception of specific consequences. We discuss the importance of these subjective coordination theories for effectively facilitating group decision-making and minimising process losses. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0901287

The Behavior Intervention Support Team (BIST) Program: Underlying Theories

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Boulden, Walter T.

2010-01-01

The Behavior Intervention Support Team (BIST) is a proactive school-wide behavior management plan for all students, emphasizing schools partnering with students and parents through caring relationships and high expectations. The BIST program is well-grounded in behavioral theory and combines strength-based and resiliency principles within the…

Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jordan, Jeremy D

2007-01-01

.... Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker...

Decision Behavior and Outcome of Midlife Career Changers.

Science.gov (United States)

Armstrong, Janet C.

1981-01-01

Questionnaires were used to determine the extent of rational as opposed to incremental decision-making behavior, and the relative ineffectiveness of these approaches as used by two groups of midlife career changers. Although the rational approach was more effective, the incremental approach was used by two-thirds of the respondents. (RC)

Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Janulis, Patrick

2014-03-01

Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

Using meta-analytic path analysis to test theoretical predictions in health behavior: An illustration based on meta-analyses of the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagger, Martin S; Chan, Derwin K C; Protogerou, Cleo; Chatzisarantis, Nikos L D

2016-08-01

Synthesizing research on social cognitive theories applied to health behavior is an important step in the development of an evidence base of psychological factors as targets for effective behavioral interventions. However, few meta-analyses of research on social cognitive theories in health contexts have conducted simultaneous tests of theoretically-stipulated pattern effects using path analysis. We argue that conducting path analyses of meta-analytic effects among constructs from social cognitive theories is important to test nomological validity, account for mediation effects, and evaluate unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. We illustrate our points by conducting new analyses of two meta-analyses of a popular theory applied to health behaviors, the theory of planned behavior. We conducted meta-analytic path analyses of the theory in two behavioral contexts (alcohol and dietary behaviors) using data from the primary studies included in the original meta-analyses augmented to include intercorrelations among constructs and relations with past behavior missing from the original analysis. Findings supported the nomological validity of the theory and its hypotheses for both behaviors, confirmed important model processes through mediation analysis, demonstrated the attenuating effect of past behavior on theory relations, and provided estimates of the unique effects of theory constructs independent of past behavior. Our analysis illustrates the importance of conducting a simultaneous test of theory-stipulated effects in meta-analyses of social cognitive theories applied to health behavior. We recommend researchers adopt this analytic procedure when synthesizing evidence across primary tests of social cognitive theories in health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiattribute Risky Choice Behavior: The Editing of Complex Prospects

OpenAIRE

John W. Payne; Dan J. Laughhunn; Roy Crum

1984-01-01

This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York.]) in an examination of the multiattribute risky choice behavior of 128 managers. The questions of how managers edit multiattribu...

APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN UNIVERSITY LIFE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE NICULESCU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In the first part of the article I have dealt with the role and place of behavioral economics in the economic sciences. Classical economic theories are criticized by the behavioral economy. We think we are rational beings and that we make logical decisions based on the information we have at our disposal. In fact, we have our own cognitive limitations that can lead to hasty decisions or confusing judgments; the real individual is a complex person, with actions that result in failures and incomprehensible behaviors for the economics Behavioral economics is trying to explain why individuals often make irrational choices, and why decisions they take do not follow exactly the patterns predicted by classical and neoclassical economic models. This paper is trying to assess the individual behavior involved in the decision making process in the university space. This article describes aloso a series of experiments on behavioral economics. The experiments are from university life and contest the hypothesis of the perfectly rational person's existence in making decisions and the neoclassical economic theories and models that are based only on the premise of the existence of homo oeconomicus rationalis. Observations and experiments conducted with students at Constantin Brancusi University in Târgu-Jiu are relevant in challenging the hypothesis of perfect rationality, preference stability, perfect information and market efficiency. The research method used in this article is the experiment. Study results are useful for academic management.

Application of the Expanded Theory of Planned Behavior in Intercity Travel Behavior

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Jing Peng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Congestion in intercity corridors of metropolitan area has been increasing steadily. To alleviate congestion, many major investment projects, such as the high speed railway projects, were proposed by agency. To evaluate the adequacy and efficiency of these projects, the intercity travel behavior should be analyzed in metropolitan area. The paper constructed a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC model according to an expanded theory of planned behavior (TPB to study the travel behavior of choosing from the choice set of the traditional train, the high speed railway and the coach by demographic and psychological factors. Through empirical data collection and analysis, we found that demographic factors of travelers indeed positively engender the latent variables in MIMIC, and descriptive norm and habit had direct or indirect significant effect on travel behavior and intention. On the basis of the effect of psychological constructors of the expanded TPB on the intercity travel behavior and differentiation of traveler's demographic characteristics, the agency can make reasonable policies and proper information for the intercity transportation. The results will support the basic theory of optimizing the transportation system in metropolitan area. Implications for researchers and suggestions for future research are also addressed in this study.

The effect of the emotive decisions in prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonavia, Tomas

2014-12-29

The main purpose of this paper was to show that the certainty and reflection effects of prospect theory do not occur when stimuli have an affective value. To this end, 160 participants were asked to reply to a series of problems originally designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but modified according to the contributions of Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001). The sample was divided into four experimental conditions, two in a gain situation and two in a loss situation. In both cases, affect-rich and affect-poor stimuli were applied in sure and probable alternatives. The findings showed that, in agreement with our hypotheses, the affective value of the stimuli altered the outcome predicted by prospect theory, showing response patterns contrary to certainty and reflection effects (p ≤ .01 and p ≤ .05 respectively). Therefore, this research supports the influence of the emotions in the decision-making process, and should be extended to other aspects of prospect theory.

On the theory of behavioral mechanics.

Science.gov (United States)

Dzendolet, E

1999-12-01

The Theory of Behavioral Mechanics is the behavioral analogue of Newton's laws of motion, with the rate of responding in operant conditioning corresponding to physical velocity. In an earlier work, the basic relation between rate of responding and sessions under two FI schedules and over a range of commonly used session values had been shown to be a power function. Using that basic relation, functions for behavioral acceleration, mass, and momentum are derived here. Data from other laboratories also support the applicability of a power function to VI schedules. A particular numerical value is introduced here to be the standard reference value for the behavioral force under the VI-60-s schedule. This reference allows numerical values to be calculated for the behavioral mass and momentum of individual animals. A comparison of the numerical values of the momenta of two animals can be used to evaluate their relative resistances to change, e.g., to extinction, which is itself viewed as a continuously changing behavioral force being imposed on the animal. This overall numerical approach allows behavioral force-values to be assigned to various experimental conditions such as the evaluation of the behavioral force of a medication dosage.

Decision-making: Theory and practice

OpenAIRE

SM Turpin; MA Marais

2004-01-01

This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

Bounded Rationality and Satisficing in Young People's Web-Based Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Agosto, Denise E.

2002-01-01

Investigated behavioral decision-making theories of bounded rationality and satisficing in relation to young people's decision making in the World Wide Web and considered the role of personal preferences. Results of this study of ninth- and tenth-grade females consider time constraints, information overload, physical constraints, reduction…

Public Affairs Decision Making in the U.S. Air Force: An Application of Multiattribute Utility Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Prabu; Pierson, Michael M.

1998-01-01

Contributes to scholarship on public relations decision making and public relations theory. Examines decision making by United States Air Force public affairs personnel. Finds that only 48% of the decisions fit the public relations excellence criteria of accommodation and long-term relationship building. Finds also a negative correlation between…

Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

2014-12-01

This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PREMISES OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE IN RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurentiu Droj

2016-07-01

Full Text Available One cannot separate decision from psychology of human being. People see world by perception and this leads to various ways of understanding even the most concrete or certain things. Financial literature reflects the subjective nature of human being in making decisions by classifying decision-making process into being 'rationally' oriented or the opposite, 'irrational', according to individual’s attitude towards risk – 'appetite' or 'aversion'. Process of understanding risk associated with future financial returns implies attaching mental probabilities to it. This activity is always affected by human nature of agents that take financial decisions, therefore bearing risk. Psychological factors such as perception, framing effect, information asymmetry, irrationality, emotions are accompanying every financial decision. Paper intends to study the direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being playing the role of a decisional agent in financial context. Financial decisions are always accompanied by the notion of probability in defining what we call as 'expected' returns that translate into risk associated with financial investments. Empirical analysis done on the financial market reflects that agents use their perception on risk of gaining or losing from a certain financial transaction to decide whether to invest or not. The notion of 'expected utility' has been complementary used with the one of 'prospect value' as financial literature evolved over time and researchers brought new insights into the mechanism of financial decision. This paper studies direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being according to classical and rational decision-making process in the light of the prospect theory and risk attitude regarding financial outcome of decisions. In this sense, an econometric model is tested on the international financial market in order to find out what kind of subjective factors lie hidden in an investor

The proposition of a general version of the theory of planned behavior: Predicting ecological behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaiser, F.G.; Gutscher, H.

2003-01-01

The present paper explores whether the theory of planned behavior (TPB) must abandon the notion that perceived behavioral control (PBC) has a direct influence on behavior. In a cross-sectional survey of 895 Swiss residents, our hypothesis was tested by means of structural equation models. Applied

Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories; Beslissingen onder risico. Een overzicht van enkele alternatieve nutstheorieen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T

1998-09-01

Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies.

Chapter 2: Theoretical Models for Understanding Physical Activity Behavior among Children and Adolescents--Social Cognitive Theory and Self-Determination Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Motl, Robert W.

2007-01-01

The study of physical activity behavior in youth generally lacks a sufficient theoretical foundation for examining variables that influence that behavior. This is a major limitation because theory guides the search for determinants of behavior and the subsequent interplay between research findings and application. Theory offers a systematically…

Advancing Models and Theories for Digital Behavior Change Interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hekler, Eric B; Michie, Susan; Pavel, Misha; Rivera, Daniel E; Collins, Linda M; Jimison, Holly B; Garnett, Claire; Parral, Skye; Spruijt-Metz, Donna

2016-11-01

To be suitable for informing digital behavior change interventions, theories and models of behavior change need to capture individual variation and changes over time. The aim of this paper is to provide recommendations for development of models and theories that are informed by, and can inform, digital behavior change interventions based on discussions by international experts, including behavioral, computer, and health scientists and engineers. The proposed framework stipulates the use of a state-space representation to define when, where, for whom, and in what state for that person, an intervention will produce a targeted effect. The "state" is that of the individual based on multiple variables that define the "space" when a mechanism of action may produce the effect. A state-space representation can be used to help guide theorizing and identify crossdisciplinary methodologic strategies for improving measurement, experimental design, and analysis that can feasibly match the complexity of real-world behavior change via digital behavior change interventions. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.