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Salvidio Sebastiano
2010-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been suggested that Plethodontid salamanders are excellent candidates for indicating ecosystem health. However, detailed, long-term data sets of their populations are rare, limiting our understanding of the demographic processes underlying their population fluctuations. Here we present a demographic analysis based on a 1996 - 2008 data set on an underground population of Speleomantes strinatii (Aellen in NW Italy. We utilised a Bayesian state-space approach allowing us to parameterise a stage-structured Lefkovitch model. We used all the available population data from annual temporary removal experiments to provide us with the baseline data on the numbers of juveniles, subadults and adult males and females present at any given time. Results Sampling the posterior chains of the converged state-space model gives us the likelihood distributions of the state-specific demographic rates and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Analysing the resulting parameterised Lefkovitch matrices shows that the population growth is very close to 1, and that at population equilibrium we expect half of the individuals present to be adults of reproductive age which is what we also observe in the data. Elasticity analysis shows that adult survival is the key determinant for population growth. Conclusion This analysis demonstrates how an understanding of population demography can be gained from structured population data even in a case where following marked individuals over their whole lifespan is not practical.
Bayesian analyses of cognitive architecture.
Houpt, Joseph W; Heathcote, Andrew; Eidels, Ami
2017-06-01
The question of cognitive architecture-how cognitive processes are temporally organized-has arisen in many areas of psychology. This question has proved difficult to answer, with many proposed solutions turning out to be spurious. Systems factorial technology (Townsend & Nozawa, 1995) provided the first rigorous empirical and analytical method of identifying cognitive architecture, using the survivor interaction contrast (SIC) to determine when people are using multiple sources of information in parallel or in series. Although the SIC is based on rigorous nonparametric mathematical modeling of response time distributions, for many years inference about cognitive architecture has relied solely on visual assessment. Houpt and Townsend (2012) recently introduced null hypothesis significance tests, and here we develop both parametric and nonparametric (encompassing prior) Bayesian inference. We show that the Bayesian approaches can have considerable advantages. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Comparison Between Bayesian and Maximum Entropy Analyses of Flow Networks†
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Steven H. Waldrip
2017-02-01
Full Text Available We compare the application of Bayesian inference and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt method for the analysis of ﬂow networks, such as water, electrical and transport networks. The two methods have the advantage of allowing a probabilistic prediction of ﬂow rates and other variables, when there is insufﬁcient information to obtain a deterministic solution, and also allow the effects of uncertainty to be included. Both methods of inference update a prior to a posterior probability density function (pdf by the inclusion of new information, in the form of data or constraints. The MaxEnt method maximises an entropy function subject to constraints, using the method of Lagrange multipliers,to give the posterior, while the Bayesian method ﬁnds its posterior by multiplying the prior with likelihood functions incorporating the measured data. In this study, we examine MaxEnt using soft constraints, either included in the prior or as probabilistic constraints, in addition to standard moment constraints. We show that when the prior is Gaussian,both Bayesian inference and the MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints give the same posterior means, but their covariances are different. In the Bayesian method, the interactions between variables are applied through the likelihood function, using second or higher-order cross-terms within the posterior pdf. In contrast, the MaxEnt method incorporates interactions between variables using Lagrange multipliers, avoiding second-order correlation terms in the posterior covariance. The MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints, therefore, has a numerical advantage over Bayesian inference, in that the covariance terms are avoided in its integrations. The second MaxEnt method with soft probabilistic constraints is shown to give posterior means of similar, but not identical, structure to the other two methods, due to its different formulation.
Sanchez, Eugenia; Küpfer, Eliane; Goedbloed, Daniel J; Nolte, Arne W; Lüddecke, Tim; Schulz, Stefan; Vences, Miguel; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2018-03-05
The postembryonic development of amphibians has been characterized as divided into three predominant periods, hereafter named primary developmental stages: premetamorphosis (PreM), prometamorphosis (ProM), metamorphic climax (Meta), and completion of metamorphosis (PostM), largely based on examination of anuran development. Here, we categorized the postembryonic development of larvae of a poisonous fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) by integrating morphology and gene expression (transcriptomic) data. Morphological analysis revealed three distinct clusters suggestive of PreM, ProM, and Meta, which were confirmed in parallel by microarray-derived gene expression analysis. In total, 3,510 probes targeted transcripts differentially expressed between the clusters we identified. Genes upregulated in PreM related to organogenesis, and those upregulated in Meta underlie structural proteins and related to development of anatomical structures and pigmentation. Biosynthesis pathways of pigments (pteridines and melanin) were upregulated during late ProM and Meta. Gas chromatographic analysis of alkaloids indicated the onset of steroidal alkaloid biosynthesis at ProM. When comparing gene expression in the fire salamander to that in other amphibians-three anurans, Xenopus laevis, X. tropicalis, and Michrohyla fissipes, and one caudate, Ambystoma mexicanum- we identified genes with conserved expression patterns involved in basic metamorphic processes such as skin restructuring and tail fin resorption. Our results support that primary stages of postembryonic development in caudates are homologous to those of anurans, and offer a baseline for the study of the evolution of developmental modes. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Tsukasa Mori
2012-02-01
The rapid induction of a defensive morphology by a prey species in face of a predation risk is an intriguing in ecological context; however, the physiological mechanisms that underlie this phenotypic plasticity remain uncertain. Here we investigated the phenotypic changes shown by Rana pirica tadpoles in response to a predation threat by larvae of the salamander Hynobius retardatus. One such response is the bulgy morph phenotype, a relatively rapid swelling in size by the tadpoles that begins within 4 days and reaches a maximum at 8 to 10 days. We found that although the total volume of bodily fluid increased significantly (P<0.01 in bulgy morph tadpoles, osmotic pressure was maintained at the same level as control tadpoles by a significant increase (P<0.01 in Na and Cl ion concentrations. In our previous report, we identified a novel frog gene named pirica that affects the waterproofing of the skin membrane in tadpoles. Our results support the hypothesis that predator-induced expression of pirica on the skin membrane causes retention of absorbed water. Midline sections of bulgy morph tadpoles showed the presence of swollen connective tissue beneath the skin that was sparsely composed of cells containing hyaluronic acid. Mass spectrographic (LC-MS/MS analysis identified histone H3 and 14-3-3 zeta as the most abundant constituents in the liquid aspirated from the connective tissue of bulgy tadpoles. Immunohistochemistry using antibodies against these proteins showed the presence of non-chromatin associated histone H3 in the swollen connective tissue. Histones and 14-3-3 proteins are also involved in antimicrobial activity and secretion of antibacterial proteins, respectively. Bulgy tadpoles have a larger surface area than controls, and their skin often has bite wounds inflicted by the larval salamanders. Thus, formation of the bulgy morph may also require and be supported by activation of innate immune systems.
Kadarmideen, H.N.; Janss, L.L.G.
2005-01-01
Bayesian segregation analyses were used to investigate the mode of inheritance of osteochondral lesions (osteochondrosis, OC) in pigs. Data consisted of 1163 animals with OC and their pedigrees included 2891 animals. Mixed-inheritance threshold models (MITM) and several variants of MITM, in
Multi-level Bayesian analyses for single- and multi-vehicle freeway crashes.
Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed
2013-09-01
This study presents multi-level analyses for single- and multi-vehicle crashes on a mountainous freeway. Data from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 were investigated. Both aggregate and disaggregate models for the two crash conditions were developed. Five years of crash data were used in the aggregate investigation, while the disaggregate models utilized one year of crash data along with real-time traffic and weather data. For the aggregate analyses, safety performance functions were developed for the purpose of revealing the contributing factors for each crash type. Two methodologies, a Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model and a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with correlated random effects, were estimated to simultaneously analyze the two crash conditions with consideration of possible correlations. Except for the factors related to geometric characteristics, two exposure parameters (annual average daily traffic and segment length) were included. Two different sets of significant explanatory and exposure variables were identified for the single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) crashes. It was found that the Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model is superior to the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model, the former with a substantially lower DIC and more significant variables. In addition to the aggregate analyses, microscopic real-time crash risk evaluation models were developed for the two crash conditions. Multi-level Bayesian logistic regression models were estimated with the random parameters accounting for seasonal variations, crash-unit-level diversity and segment-level random effects capturing unobserved heterogeneity caused by the geometric characteristics. The model results indicate that the effects of the selected variables on crash occurrence vary across seasons and crash units; and that geometric characteristic variables contribute to the segment variations: the more unobserved heterogeneity have been accounted, the better
Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses
Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.
2016-01-01
Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794
Siwek, M; Finocchiaro, R; Curik, I; Portolano, B
2011-02-01
Genetic structure and relationship amongst the main goat populations in Sicily (Girgentana, Derivata di Siria, Maltese and Messinese) were analysed using information from 19 microsatellite markers genotyped on 173 individuals. A posterior Bayesian approach implemented in the program STRUCTURE revealed a hierarchical structure with two clusters at the first level (Girgentana vs. Messinese, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 4.8% of variation (amovaФ(ST) estimate). Seven clusters nested within these first two clusters (further differentiations of Girgentana, Derivata di Siria and Maltese), explaining 8.5% of variation (amovaФ(SC) estimate). The analyses and methods applied in this study indicate their power to detect subtle population structure. © 2010 The Authors, Animal Genetics © 2010 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.
Buddhachat, Kittisak; Brown, Janine L; Thitaram, Chatchote; Klinhom, Sarisa; Nganvongpanit, Korakot
2017-03-01
As laws tighten to limit commercial ivory trading and protect threatened species like whales and elephants, increased sales of fake ivory products have become widespread. This study describes a method, handheld X-ray fluorescence (XRF) as a noninvasive technique for elemental analysis, to differentiate quickly between ivory (Asian and African elephant, mammoth) from non-ivory (bones, teeth, antler, horn, wood, synthetic resin, rock) materials. An equation consisting of 20 elements and light elements from a stepwise discriminant analysis was used to classify samples, followed by Bayesian binary regression to determine the probability of a sample being 'ivory', with complementary log log analysis to identify the best fit model for this purpose. This Bayesian hybrid classification model was 93% accurate with 92% precision in discriminating ivory from non-ivory materials. The method was then validated by scanning an additional ivory and non-ivory samples, correctly identifying bone as not ivory with >95% accuracy, except elephant bone, which was 72%. It was less accurate for wood and rock (25-85%); however, a preliminary screening to determine if samples are not Ca-dominant could eliminate inorganic materials. In conclusion, elemental analyses by XRF can be used to identify several forms of fake ivory samples, which could have forensic application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Gayevskiy, Velimir; Klaere, Steffen; Knight, Sarah; Goddard, Matthew R.
2014-01-01
Bayesian inference methods are extensively used to detect the presence of population structure given genetic data. The primary output of software implementing these methods are ancestry profiles of sampled individuals. While these profiles robustly partition the data into subgroups, currently there is no objective method to determine whether the fixed factor of interest (e.g. geographic origin) correlates with inferred subgroups or not, and if so, which populations are driving this correlation. We present ObStruct, a novel tool to objectively analyse the nature of structure revealed in Bayesian ancestry profiles using established statistical methods. ObStruct evaluates the extent of structural similarity between sampled and inferred populations, tests the significance of population differentiation, provides information on the contribution of sampled and inferred populations to the observed structure and crucially determines whether the predetermined factor of interest correlates with inferred population structure. Analyses of simulated and experimental data highlight ObStruct's ability to objectively assess the nature of structure in populations. We show the method is capable of capturing an increase in the level of structure with increasing time since divergence between simulated populations. Further, we applied the method to a highly structured dataset of 1,484 humans from seven continents and a less structured dataset of 179 Saccharomyces cerevisiae from three regions in New Zealand. Our results show that ObStruct provides an objective metric to classify the degree, drivers and significance of inferred structure, as well as providing novel insights into the relationships between sampled populations, and adds a final step to the pipeline for population structure analyses. PMID:24416362
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Velimir Gayevskiy
Full Text Available Bayesian inference methods are extensively used to detect the presence of population structure given genetic data. The primary output of software implementing these methods are ancestry profiles of sampled individuals. While these profiles robustly partition the data into subgroups, currently there is no objective method to determine whether the fixed factor of interest (e.g. geographic origin correlates with inferred subgroups or not, and if so, which populations are driving this correlation. We present ObStruct, a novel tool to objectively analyse the nature of structure revealed in Bayesian ancestry profiles using established statistical methods. ObStruct evaluates the extent of structural similarity between sampled and inferred populations, tests the significance of population differentiation, provides information on the contribution of sampled and inferred populations to the observed structure and crucially determines whether the predetermined factor of interest correlates with inferred population structure. Analyses of simulated and experimental data highlight ObStruct's ability to objectively assess the nature of structure in populations. We show the method is capable of capturing an increase in the level of structure with increasing time since divergence between simulated populations. Further, we applied the method to a highly structured dataset of 1,484 humans from seven continents and a less structured dataset of 179 Saccharomyces cerevisiae from three regions in New Zealand. Our results show that ObStruct provides an objective metric to classify the degree, drivers and significance of inferred structure, as well as providing novel insights into the relationships between sampled populations, and adds a final step to the pipeline for population structure analyses.
Evolution of Gigantism in Amphiumid Salamanders
Bonett, Ronald M.; Chippindale, Paul T.; Moler, Paul E.; Van Devender, R. Wayne; Wake, David B.
2009-01-01
The Amphiumidae contains three species of elongate, permanently aquatic salamanders with four diminutive limbs that append one, two, or three toes. Two of the species, Amphiuma means and A. tridactylum, are among the largest salamanders in the world, reaching lengths of more than one meter, whereas the third species (A. pholeter), extinct amphiumids, and closely related salamander families are relatively small. Amphiuma means and A. tridactylum are widespread species and live in a wide range of lowland aquatic habitats on the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, whereas A. pholeter is restricted to very specialized organic muck habitats and is syntopic with A. means. Here we present analyses of sequences of mitochondrial and nuclear loci from across the distribution of the three taxa to assess lineage diversity, relationships, and relative timing of divergence in amphiumid salamanders. In addition we analyze the evolution of gigantism in the clade. Our analyses indicate three lineages that have diverged since the late Miocene, that correspond to the three currently recognized species, but the two gigantic species are not each other's closest relatives. Given that the most closely related salamander families and fossil amphiumids from the Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene are relatively small, our results suggest at least two extreme changes in body size within the Amphuimidae. Gigantic body size either evolved once as the ancestral condition of modern amphiumas, with a subsequent strong size reduction in A. pholeter, or gigantism independently evolved twice in the modern species, A. means and A. tridactylum. These patterns are concordant with differences in habitat breadth and range size among lineages, and have implications for reproductive isolation and diversification of amphiumid salamanders. PMID:19461997
Evolution of gigantism in amphiumid salamanders.
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Ronald M Bonett
2009-05-01
Full Text Available The Amphiumidae contains three species of elongate, permanently aquatic salamanders with four diminutive limbs that append one, two, or three toes. Two of the species, Amphiuma means and A. tridactylum, are among the largest salamanders in the world, reaching lengths of more than one meter, whereas the third species (A. pholeter, extinct amphiumids, and closely related salamander families are relatively small. Amphiuma means and A. tridactylum are widespread species and live in a wide range of lowland aquatic habitats on the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, whereas A. pholeter is restricted to very specialized organic muck habitats and is syntopic with A. means. Here we present analyses of sequences of mitochondrial and nuclear loci from across the distribution of the three taxa to assess lineage diversity, relationships, and relative timing of divergence in amphiumid salamanders. In addition we analyze the evolution of gigantism in the clade. Our analyses indicate three lineages that have diverged since the late Miocene, that correspond to the three currently recognized species, but the two gigantic species are not each other's closest relatives. Given that the most closely related salamander families and fossil amphiumids from the Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene are relatively small, our results suggest at least two extreme changes in body size within the Amphuimidae. Gigantic body size either evolved once as the ancestral condition of modern amphiumas, with a subsequent strong size reduction in A. pholeter, or gigantism independently evolved twice in the modern species, A. means and A. tridactylum. These patterns are concordant with differences in habitat breadth and range size among lineages, and have implications for reproductive isolation and diversification of amphiumid salamanders.
Riihimäki, Jaakko; Sund, Reijo; Vehtari, Aki
2010-06-01
Effective utilisation of limited resources is a challenge for health care providers. Accurate and relevant information extracted from the length of stay distributions is useful for management purposes. Patient care episodes can be reconstructed from the comprehensive health registers, and in this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to analyse the length of care episode after a fractured hip. We model the large scale data with a flexible nonparametric multilayer perceptron network and with a parametric Weibull mixture model. To assess the performances of the models, we estimate expected utilities using predictive density as a utility measure. Since the model parameters cannot be directly compared, we focus on observables, and estimate the relevances of patient explanatory variables in predicting the length of stay. To demonstrate how the use of the nonparametric flexible model is advantageous for this complex health care data, we also study joint effects of variables in predictions, and visualise nonlinearities and interactions found in the data.
Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J
2016-03-01
Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Analyses of growth curves of Nellore cattle by Bayesian method via Gibbs sampling
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Nobre P.R.C.
2003-01-01
Full Text Available Growth curves of Nellore cattle were analyzed using body weights measured at ages ranging from 1 day (birth weight to 733 days. Traits considered were birth weight, 10 to 110 days weight, 102 to 202 days weight, 193 to 293 days weight, 283 to 383 days weight, 376 to 476 days weight, 551 to 651 days weight, and 633 to 733 days weight. Two data samples were created: one with 79,849 records from herds that had missing traits and another with 74,601 from herds with no missing traits. Records preadjusted to a fixed age were analyzed by a multiple trait model (MTM, which included the effects of contemporary group, age of dam class, additive direct, additive maternal, and maternal permanent environment. Analyses were carried out by a Bayesian method for all nine traits. The random regression model (RRM included the effects of age of animal, contemporary group, age of dam class, additive direct, permanent environment, additive maternal, and maternal permanent environment. Legendre cubic polynomials were used to describe random effects. MTM estimated covariance components and genetic parameters for birth weight and sequential weights and RRM for all ages. Due to the fact that covariance components based on RRM were inflated for herds with missing traits, MTM should be used and converted to covariance functions.
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Gogarten J Peter
2002-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Horizontal gene transfer (HGT played an important role in shaping microbial genomes. In addition to genes under sporadic selection, HGT also affects housekeeping genes and those involved in information processing, even ribosomal RNA encoding genes. Here we describe tools that provide an assessment and graphic illustration of the mosaic nature of microbial genomes. Results We adapted the Maximum Likelihood (ML mapping to the analyses of all detected quartets of orthologous genes found in four genomes. We have automated the assembly and analyses of these quartets of orthologs given the selection of four genomes. We compared the ML-mapping approach to more rigorous Bayesian probability and Bootstrap mapping techniques. The latter two approaches appear to be more conservative than the ML-mapping approach, but qualitatively all three approaches give equivalent results. All three tools were tested on mitochondrial genomes, which presumably were inherited as a single linkage group. Conclusions In some instances of interphylum relationships we find nearly equal numbers of quartets strongly supporting the three possible topologies. In contrast, our analyses of genome quartets containing the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. indicate that a large part of the cyanobacterial genome is related to that of low GC Gram positives. Other groups that had been suggested as sister groups to the cyanobacteria contain many fewer genes that group with the Synechocystis orthologs. Interdomain comparisons of genome quartets containing the archaeon Halobacterium sp. revealed that Halobacterium sp. shares more genes with Bacteria that live in the same environment than with Bacteria that are more closely related based on rRNA phylogeny . Many of these genes encode proteins involved in substrate transport and metabolism and in information storage and processing. The performed analyses demonstrate that relationships among prokaryotes cannot be accurately
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Macey, J. Robert
2005-01-19
A new parsimony analysis of 27 complete mitochondrial genomic sequences is conducted to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of plethodontid salamanders. This analysis focuses on the amount of character conflict between phylogenetic trees recovered from newly conducted parsimony searches and the Bayesian and maximum likelihood topology reported by Mueller et al. (2004, PNAS, 101, 13820-13825). Strong support for Hemidactylium as the sister taxon to all other plethodontids is recovered from parsimony analyses. Plotting area relationships on the most parsimonious phylogenetic tree suggests that eastern North America is the origin of the family Plethodontidae supporting the ''Out of Appalachia'' hypothesis. A new taxonomy that recognizes clades recovered from phylogenetic analyses is proposed.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heller, Rasmus; Lorenzen, Eline D.; Okello, J.B.A
2008-01-01
pandemic in the late 1800s, but little is known about the earlier demographic history of the species. We analysed genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci and a 302-bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to infer past demographic changes in buffalo populations from East Africa. Two Bayesian...... coalescent-based methods as well as traditional bottleneck tests were applied to infer detailed dynamics in buffalo demographic history. No clear genetic signature of population declines related to the rinderpest pandemic could be detected. However, Bayesian coalescent modelling detected a strong signal...... of African buffalo population declines in the order of 75-98%, starting in the mid-Holocene (approximately 3-7000 years ago). The signature of decline was remarkably consistent using two different coalescent-based methods and two types of molecular markers. Exploratory analyses involving various prior...
Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Tarefder, Rafiqul; Ma, Jianming; Wei, Heng; Guan, Hongzhi
2015-07-01
Rear-end crash is one of the most common types of traffic crashes in the U.S. A good understanding of its characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. Previously, both multinomial Logit models and Bayesian network methods have been used in crash modeling and analysis, respectively, although each of them has its own application restrictions and limitations. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed to combine multinomial logit models and Bayesian network methods for comprehensively analyzing driver injury severities in rear-end crashes based on state-wide crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. A multinomial logit model is developed to investigate and identify significant contributing factors for rear-end crash driver injury severities classified into three categories: no injury, injury, and fatality. Then, the identified significant factors are utilized to establish a Bayesian network to explicitly formulate statistical associations between injury severity outcomes and explanatory attributes, including driver behavior, demographic features, vehicle factors, geometric and environmental characteristics, etc. The test results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach performs reasonably well. The Bayesian network reference analyses indicate that the factors including truck-involvement, inferior lighting conditions, windy weather conditions, the number of vehicles involved, etc. could significantly increase driver injury severities in rear-end crashes. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to reduce rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Data congruence, paedomorphosis and salamanders
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Struck Torsten H
2007-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The retention of ancestral juvenile characters by adult stages of descendants is called paedomorphosis. However, this process can mislead phylogenetic analyses based on morphological data, even in combination with molecular data, because the assessment if a character is primary absent or secondary lost is difficult. Thus, the detection of incongruence between morphological and molecular data is necessary to investigate the reliability of simultaneous analyses. Different methods have been proposed to detect data congruence or incongruence. Five of them (PABA, PBS, NDI, LILD, DRI are used herein to assess incongruence between morphological and molecular data in a case study addressing salamander phylogeny, which comprises several supposedly paedomorphic taxa. Therefore, previously published data sets were compiled herein. Furthermore, two strategies ameliorating effects of paedomorphosis on phylogenetic studies were tested herein using a statistical rigor. Additionally, efficiency of the different methods to assess incongruence was analyzed using this empirical data set. Finally, a test statistic is presented for all these methods except DRI. Results The addition of morphological data to molecular data results in both different positions of three of the four paedomorphic taxa and strong incongruence, but treating the morphological data using different strategies ameliorating the negative impact of paedomorphosis revokes these changes and minimizes the conflict. Of these strategies the strategy to just exclude paedomorphic character traits seem to be most beneficial. Of the three molecular partitions analyzed herein the RAG1 partition seems to be the most suitable to resolve deep salamander phylogeny. The rRNA and mtDNA partition are either too conserved or too variable, respectively. Of the different methods to detect incongruence, the NDI and PABA approaches are more conservative in the indication of incongruence than LILD and
Host, Ole; Lahav, Ofer; Abdalla, Filipe B.; Eitel, Klaus
2007-12-01
We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass mβ which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in mβ, we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference when judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input mβ=0.35eV, which is the KATRIN 5σ detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of mβ=0.2eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2σ. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7σ. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Host, Ole; Lahav, Ofer; Abdalla, Filipe B.; Eitel, Klaus
2007-01-01
We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass m β which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in m β , we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference when judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input m β =0.35 eV, which is the KATRIN 5σ detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of m β =0.2 eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2σ. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7σ. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing
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Karacaören Burak
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been shown that if genetic relationships among individuals are not taken into account for genome wide association studies, this may lead to false positives. To address this problem, we used Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model and Regression and principal component stratification analyses. To account for linkage disequilibrium among the significant markers, principal components loadings obtained from top markers can be included as covariates. Estimation of Bayesian networks may also be useful to investigate linkage disequilibrium among SNPs and their relation with environmental variables. For the quantitative trait we first estimated residuals while taking polygenic effects into account. We then used a single SNP approach to detect the most significant SNPs based on the residuals and applied principal component regression to take linkage disequilibrium among these SNPs into account. For the categorical trait we used principal component stratification methodology to account for background effects. For correction of linkage disequilibrium we used principal component logit regression. Bayesian networks were estimated to investigate relationship among SNPs. Results Using the Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model and Regression and principal component stratification approach we detected around 100 significant SNPs for the quantitative trait (p Conclusions GRAMMAR could efficiently incorporate the information regarding random genetic effects. Principal component stratification should be cautiously used with stringent multiple hypothesis testing correction to correct for ancestral stratification and association analyses for binary traits when there are systematic genetic effects such as half sib family structures. Bayesian networks are useful to investigate relationships among SNPs and environmental variables.
Fong, Ted Chun Tat; Ho, Rainbow Tin Hung
2013-12-01
The latent structure of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) has caused inconsistent results in the literature. The HADS is frequently analyzed via maximum likelihood confirmatory factor analysis (ML-CFA). However, the overly restrictive assumption of exact zero cross-loadings and residual correlations in ML-CFA can lead to poor model fits and distorted factor structures. This study applied Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) to evaluate the latent structure of the HADS. Three a priori models, the two-factor, three-factor, and bifactor models, were investigated in a Chinese community sample (N = 312) and clinical sample (N = 198) using ML-CFA and BSEM. BSEM specified approximate zero cross-loadings and residual correlations through the use of zero-mean, small-variance informative priors. The model comparison was based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using ML-CFA, none of the three models provided an adequate fit for either sample. The BSEM two-factor model with approximate zero cross-loadings and residual correlations fitted both samples well with the lowest BIC of the three models and displayed a simple and parsimonious factor-loading pattern. The study demonstrated that the two-factor structure fitted the HADS well, suggesting its usefulness in assessing the symptoms of anxiety and depression in clinical practice. BSEM is a sophisticated and flexible statistical technique that better reflects substantive theories and locates the source of model misfit. Future use of BSEM is recommended to evaluate the latent structure of other psychological instruments.
Vemulapalli, Vijetha; Qu, Jiaqi; Garren, Jeonifer M; Rodrigues, Leonardo O; Kiebish, Michael A; Sarangarajan, Rangaprasad; Narain, Niven R; Akmaev, Viatcheslav R
2016-11-01
Given the availability of extensive digitized healthcare data from medical records, claims and prescription information, it is now possible to use hypothesis-free, data-driven approaches to mine medical databases for novel insight. The goal of this analysis was to demonstrate the use of artificial intelligence based methods such as Bayesian networks to open up opportunities for creation of new knowledge in management of chronic conditions. Hospital level Medicare claims data containing discharge numbers for most common diagnoses were analyzed in a hypothesis-free manner using Bayesian networks learning methodology. While many interactions identified between discharge rates of diagnoses using this data set are supported by current medical knowledge, a novel interaction linking asthma and renal failure was discovered. This interaction is non-obvious and had not been looked at by the research and clinical communities in epidemiological or clinical data. A plausible pharmacological explanation of this link is proposed together with a verification of the risk significance by conventional statistical analysis. Potential clinical and molecular pathways defining the relationship between commonly used asthma medications and renal disease are discussed. The study underscores the need for further epidemiological research to validate this novel hypothesis. Validation will lead to advancement in clinical treatment of asthma & bronchitis, thereby, improving patient outcomes and leading to long term cost savings. In summary, this study demonstrates that application of advanced artificial intelligence methods in healthcare has the potential to enhance the quality of care by discovering non-obvious, clinically relevant relationships and enabling timely care intervention. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Biedermann, A; Taroni, F; Bozza, S; Mazzella, W D
2011-01-30
This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software. Copyright Â© 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pan, Jinhua; Ren, Zeping; Li, Wenhan; Wei, Zhen; Rao, Huaxiang; Ren, Hao; Zhang, Zhuang; Song, Weimei; He, Yuling; Li, Chenglian; Yang, Xiaojuan; Chen, LiMin; Qiu, Lixia
2018-02-28
This study aimed to obtain the prevalence of hyperlipidemia and its related factors in Shanxi Province, China using multivariate logistic regression analysis and tabu search-based Bayesian networks (BNs). A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted to obtain samples among the general population aged 18 years or above. The prevalence of hyperlipidemia in Shanxi Province was 42.6%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that gender, age, region, occupation, vegetable intake level, physical activity, body mass index, central obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus are associated with hyperlipidemia. BNs were used to find connections between those related factors and hyperlipidemia, which were established by a complex network structure. The results showed that BNs can not only be used to find out the correlative factors of hyperlipidemia but also to analyse how these factors affect hyperlipidemia and their interrelationships, which is consistent with practical theory, is superior to logistic regression and has better application prospects.
Differentiation of movement behaviour in an adaptively diverging salamander population.
Hendrix, Ralf; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Schaub, Michael; Krause, E Tobias; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2017-11-01
Dispersal is considered to be a species-specific trait, but intraspecific variation can be high. However, when and how this complex trait starts to differentiate during the divergence of species/lineages is unknown. Here, we studied the differentiation of movement behaviour in a large salamander population (Salamandra salamandra), in which individual adaptations to different habitat conditions drive the genetic divergence of this population into two subpopulations. In this system, salamanders have adapted to the deposition and development of their larvae in ephemeral ponds vs. small first-order streams. In general, the pond habitat is characterized as a spatially and temporally highly unpredictable habitat, while streams provide more stable and predictable conditions for the development of larvae. We analysed the fine-scale genetic distribution of larvae, and explored whether the adaptation to different larval habitat conditions has in turn also affected dispersal strategies and home range size of adult salamanders. Based on the genetic assignment of adult individuals to their respective larval habitat type, we show that pond-adapted salamanders occupied larger home ranges, displayed long-distance dispersal and had a higher variability of movement types than the stream-adapted individuals. We argue that the differentiation of phenotypically plastic traits such as dispersal and movement characteristics can be a crucial component in the course of adaptation to new habitat conditions, thereby promoting the genetic divergence of populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Sexual dimorphism and age of Mediterranean salamanders.
Reinhard, Sandy; Renner, Sandra; Kupfer, Alexander
2015-02-01
We analysed sexual size dimorphism (SSD) for two Mediterranean species of the "true" salamander clade possessing distinct life histories (Salamandra algira and Mertensiella caucasica) and equilibrated the morphometric approach to individual age by using skeletochronology. For species that have a short breeding season and live at high altitudes, such as Mediterranean amphibians, the fecundity advantage hypothesis predicts female-biased SSD to maximise reproductive success. Our results showed no SSD in either species; however, morphometric data indicated a male-biased dimorphism in limb (arm and leg) dimensions in both species when compared to body size. Limb dimorphisms are likely related to the particular mating system, which involves an amplexus during spermatophore transfer. Arm length appeared sexually dimorphic during ontogeny both in viviparous S. algira and oviparous M. caucasica. A review on SSD indicated monomorphy of body size as a common lineage-specific pattern among the "true" salamander clade, but also the common presence of other traits such as sexually dimorphic limb proportions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Hibbett, David S; Matheny, P Brandon
2009-01-01
Background Ectomycorrhizae (ECM) are symbioses formed by polyphyletic assemblages of fungi (mostly Agaricomycetes) and plants (mostly Pinaceae and angiosperms in the rosid clade). Efforts to reconstruct the evolution of the ECM habit in Agaricomycetes have yielded vastly different results, ranging from scenarios with many relatively recent origins of the symbiosis and no reversals to the free-living condition; a single ancient origin of ECM and many subsequent transitions to the free-living condition; or multiple gains and losses of the association. To test the plausibility of these scenarios, we performed Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analyses including fungi, plants, and other eukaryotes, based on the principle that a symbiosis cannot evolve prior to the origin of both partners. As we were primarily interested in the relative ages of the plants and fungi, we did not attempt to calibrate the molecular clock using the very limited fossil record of Agaricomycetes. Results Topologically constrained and unconstrained analyses suggest that the root node of the Agaricomycetes is much older than either the rosids or Pinaceae. The Agaricomycetidae, a large clade containing the Agaricales and Boletales (collectively representing 70% of Agaricomycetes), is also significantly older than the rosids. The relative age of Agaricomycetidae and Pinaceae, however, is sensitive to tree topology, and the inclusion or exclusion of the gnetophyte Welwitschia mirabilis. Conclusion The ancestor of the Agaricomycetes could not have been an ECM species because it existed long before any of its potential hosts. Within more derived clades of Agaricomycetes, there have been at least eight independent origins of ECM associations involving angiosperms, and at least six to eight origins of associations with gymnosperms. The first ECM symbioses may have involved Pinaceae, which are older than rosids, but several major clades of Agaricomycetes, such as the Boletales and Russulales, are young
Lunghi, Enrico; Manenti, Raoul; Canciani, Giancarlo; Scarì, Giorgio; Pennati, Roberta; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco
2016-08-01
Information on species thermal physiology is extremely important to understand species responses to environmental heterogeneity and changes. Thermography is an emerging technology that allows high resolution and accurate measurement of body temperature, but until now it has not been used to study thermal physiology of amphibians in the wild. Hydromantes terrestrial salamanders are strongly depending on ambient temperature for their activity and gas exchanges, but information on their body temperature is extremely limited. In this study we tested if Hydromantes salamanders are thermoconform, we assessed whether there are temperature differences among body regions, and evaluated the time required to reach the thermal equilibrium. During summers of 2014 and 2015 we analysed 56 salamanders (Hydromantes ambrosii and Hydromantes italicus) using infrared thermocamera. We photographed salamanders at the moment in which we found them and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 15min after having kept them in the hands. Body temperature was equal to air temperature; salamanders attained the equilibrium with air temperature in about 8min, the time required to reach equilibrium was longer in individuals with large body size. We detected small temperature differences between body parts, the head being slightly warmer than the body and the tail (mean difference: 0.05°C). These salamanders quickly reach the equilibrium with the environment, thus microhabitat measurement allows obtaining accurate information on their tolerance limits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Mueller, Rachel Lockridge; Macey, J. Robert; Jaekel, Martin; Wake, David B.; Boore, Jeffrey L.
2004-08-01
The evolutionary history of the largest salamander family (Plethodontidae) is characterized by extreme morphological homoplasy. Analysis of the mechanisms generating such homoplasy requires an independent, molecular phylogeny. To this end, we sequenced 24 complete mitochondrial genomes (22 plethodontids and two outgroup taxa), added data for three species from GenBank, and performed partitioned and unpartitioned Bayesian, ML, and MP phylogenetic analyses. We explored four dataset partitioning strategies to account for evolutionary process heterogeneity among genes and codon positions, all of which yielded increased model likelihoods and decreased numbers of supported nodes in the topologies (PP > 0.95) relative to the unpartitioned analysis. Our phylogenetic analyses yielded congruent trees that contrast with the traditional morphology-based taxonomy; the monophyly of three out of four major groups is rejected. Reanalysis of current hypotheses in light of these new evolutionary relationships suggests that (1) a larval life history stage re-evolved from a direct-developing ancestor multiple times, (2) there is no phylogenetic support for the ''Out of Appalachia'' hypothesis of plethodontid origins, and (3) novel scenarios must be reconstructed for the convergent evolution of projectile tongues, reduction in toe number, and specialization for defensive tail loss. Some of these novel scenarios imply morphological transformation series that proceed in the opposite direction than was previously thought. In addition, they suggest surprising evolutionary lability in traits previously interpreted to be conservative.
Sites, J.W.; Morando, M.; Highton, R.; Huber, F.; Jung, R.E.
2004-01-01
The Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), known from isolated talus slopes on three of the highest mountains in Shenandoah National Park, is listed as state-endangered in Virginia and federally endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. A 1999 paper by G. R. Thurow described P. shenandoah-like salamanders from three localities further south in the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province, which, if confirmed, would represent a range extension for P. shenandoah of approximately 90 km from its nearest known locality. Samples collected from two of these three localities were included in a molecular phylogenetic study of the known populations of P. shenandoah, and all other recognized species in the Plethodon cinereus group, using a 792 bp region of the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene. Phylogenetic estimates were based on Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony methods and topologies examined for placement of the new P. shenandoah-like samples relative to all others. All topologies recovered all haplotypes of the P. shenandoah-like animals nested within P. cinereus, and a statistical comparison of the best likelihood tree topology with one with an enforced (Thurow + Shenandoah P. shenandoah) clade revealed that the unconstrained tree had a significantly lower -In L score (P < 0.05, using the Shimodaira-Hasegawa test) than the constraint tree. This result and other anecdotal information give us no solid reason to consider the Thurow report valid. The current recovery program for P. shenandoah should remain focused on populations in Shenandoah National Park.
McGuire, Jimmy A; Witt, Christopher C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Remsen, J V
2007-10-01
Hummingbirds are an important model system in avian biology, but to date the group has been the subject of remarkably few phylogenetic investigations. Here we present partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses for 151 of approximately 330 species of hummingbirds and 12 outgroup taxa based on two protein-coding mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4), flanking tRNAs, and two nuclear introns (AK1 and BFib). We analyzed these data under several partitioning strategies ranging between unpartitioned and a maximum of nine partitions. In order to select a statistically justified partitioning strategy following partitioned Bayesian analysis, we considered four alternative criteria including Bayes factors, modified versions of the Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AIC(c)), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a decision-theoretic methodology (DT). Following partitioned maximum likelihood analyses, we selected a best-fitting strategy using hierarchical likelihood ratio tests (hLRTS), the conventional AICc, BIC, and DT, concluding that the most stringent criterion, the performance-based DT, was the most appropriate methodology for selecting amongst partitioning strategies. In the context of our well-resolved and well-supported phylogenetic estimate, we consider the historical biogeography of hummingbirds using ancestral state reconstructions of (1) primary geographic region of occurrence (i.e., South America, Central America, North America, Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles), (2) Andean or non-Andean geographic distribution, and (3) minimum elevational occurrence. These analyses indicate that the basal hummingbird assemblages originated in the lowlands of South America, that most of the principle clades of hummingbirds (all but Mountain Gems and possibly Bees) originated on this continent, and that there have been many (at least 30) independent invasions of other primary landmasses, especially Central America.
Rodríguez, Ariel; Burgon, James D; Lyra, Mariana; Irisarri, Iker; Baurain, Denis; Blaustein, Leon; Göçmen, Bayram; Künzel, Sven; Mable, Barbara K; Nolte, Arne W; Veith, Michael; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Elmer, Kathryn R; Philippe, Hervé; Vences, Miguel
2017-10-01
The rise of high-throughput sequencing techniques provides the unprecedented opportunity to analyse controversial phylogenetic relationships in great depth, but also introduces a risk of being misinterpreted by high node support values influenced by unevenly distributed missing data or unrealistic model assumptions. Here, we use three largely independent phylogenomic data sets to reconstruct the controversial phylogeny of true salamanders of the genus Salamandra, a group of amphibians providing an intriguing model to study the evolution of aposematism and viviparity. For all six species of the genus Salamandra, and two outgroup species from its sister genus Lyciasalamandra, we used RNA sequencing (RNAseq) and restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to obtain data for: (1) 3070 nuclear protein-coding genes from RNAseq; (2) 7440 loci obtained by RADseq; and (3) full mitochondrial genomes. The RNAseq and RADseq data sets retrieved fully congruent topologies when each of them was analyzed in a concatenation approach, with high support for: (1) S. infraimmaculata being sister group to all other Salamandra species; (2) S. algira being sister to S. salamandra; (3) these two species being the sister group to a clade containing S. atra, S. corsica and S. lanzai; and (4) the alpine species S. atra and S. lanzai being sister taxa. The phylogeny inferred from the mitochondrial genome sequences differed from these results, most notably by strongly supporting a clade containing S. atra and S. corsica as sister taxa. A different placement of S. corsica was also retrieved when analysing the RNAseq and RADseq data under species tree approaches. Closer examination of gene trees derived from RNAseq revealed that only a low number of them supported each of the alternative placements of S. atra. Furthermore, gene jackknife support for the S. atra - S. lanzai node stabilized only with very large concatenated data sets. The phylogeny of true salamanders thus provides a
Evaluating multi-level models to test occupancy state responses of Plethodontid salamanders
Kroll, Andrew J.; Garcia, Tiffany S.; Jones, Jay E.; Dugger, Catherine; Murden, Blake; Johnson, Josh; Peerman, Summer; Brintz, Ben; Rochelle, Michael
2015-01-01
Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29). Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions
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Vinikour, W. S.; LaGory, K. E.; Adduci, J. J.; Environmental Science Division
2006-10-20
The purpose of this conservation assessment is to summarize existing knowledge regarding the biology and ecology of the Siskiyou Mountains salamander and Scott Bar salamander, identify threats to the two species, and identify conservation considerations to aid federal management for persistence of the species. The conservation assessment will serve as the basis for a conservation strategy for the species.
Loudon, Andrew H.; Venkataraman, Arvind; Van Treuren, William; Woodhams, Douglas C.; Parfrey, Laura Wegener; McKenzie, Valerie J.; Knight, Rob; Schmidt, Thomas M.; Harris, Reid N.
2016-01-01
Skin bacterial communities can protect amphibians from a fungal pathogen; however, little is known about how these communities are maintained. We used a neutral model of community ecology to identify bacteria that are maintained on salamanders by selection or by dispersal from a bacterial reservoir (soil) and ecological drift. We found that 75% (9/12) of bacteria that were consistent with positive selection, immigration and loss (emigration and local extinction) rates of bacteria on salamanders in both treatments. Loss was strongly related to bacterial richness, suggesting competition is important for structuring the community. Bacteria closely related to antifungal isolates were more likely to persist on salamanders with or without a bacterial reservoir, suggesting they had a competitive advantage. Furthermore, over-represented and under-represented operational taxonomic units (OTUs) had similar persistence on salamanders when a bacterial reservoir was present. However, under-represented OTUs were less likely to persist in the absence of a bacterial reservoir, suggesting that the over-represented and under-represented bacteria were selected against or for on salamanders through time. Our findings from the neutral model, migration and persistence analyses show that bacteria that exhibit a high similarity to antifungal isolates persist on salamanders, which likely protect hosts against pathogens and improve fitness. This research is one of the first to apply ecological theory to investigate assembly of host associated-bacterial communities, which can provide insights for probiotic bioaugmentation as a conservation strategy against disease. PMID:27014249
Sean B. Reilly; Andrew D Gottsho; Justin M. Garwood; Bryan. Jennings
2010-01-01
Given the current global amphibian decline, it is crucial to obtain accurate and current information regarding species distributions. Secretive amphibians such as plethodontid salamanders can be difficult to detect in many cases, especially in remote, high elevation areas. We used molecular phylogenetic analyses to identify three partially digested salamanders palped...
Meng, Fanyu; Xu, Pengpeng; Wong, S C; Huang, Helai; Li, Y C
2017-11-01
This study aimed to identify the factors affecting the crash-related severity level of injuries in taxis and quantify the associations between these factors and taxi occupant injury severity. Casualties resulting from taxi crashes from 2004 to 2013 in Hong Kong were divided into four categories: taxi drivers, taxi passengers, private car drivers and private car passengers. To avoid any biased interpretation caused by unobserved spatial and temporal effects, a Bayesian hierarchical logistic modeling approach with conditional autoregressive priors was applied, and four different model forms were tested. For taxi drivers and passengers, the model with space-time interaction was proven to most properly address the unobserved heterogeneity effects. The results indicated that time of week, number of vehicles involved, weather, point of impact and driver age were closely associated with taxi drivers' injury severity level in a crash. For taxi passengers' injury severity an additional factor, taxi service area, was influential. To investigate the differences between taxis and other traffic, similar models were established for private car drivers and passengers. The results revealed that although location in the network and driver gender significantly influenced private car drivers' injury severity, they did not influence taxi drivers' injury severity. Compared with taxi passengers, the injury severity of private car passengers was more sensitive to average speed and whether seat belts were worn. Older drivers, urban taxis and fatigued driving were identified as factors that increased taxi occupant injury severity in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Simmons, Mark P
2014-11-01
Contrived and simulated examples were used to quantify the range of conditions in which maximum likelihood and Bayesian MCMC methods are biased in favor of phylogenetic signal present in globally sampled characters over that present in conflicting locally sampled characters (those with missing data). The bias occurs in both the optimal tree identified as well as branch supports even when there are more locally sampled characters supporting the conflicting topology. The bias can lead to high bootstrap, SH-like aLRT support (up to 100%), and posterior probabilities for the conflicting clades. The bias can occur even when only a single terminal has missing data. The bias is not limited to likelihood methods that only ever present a single optimal tree that is fully resolved (as in PhyML and RAxML)-it can also occur in branch-and-bound PAUP(∗) searches. The bias persists despite sampling numerous characters, and the bias is consistently unidirectional. The bias may occur in the context of incongruence between gene trees as well as within a single gene wherein terminals have different sequence lengths caused by DNA-amplification differences or gaps caused by indels. This bias is another example wherein commonly implemented parametric phylogenetic methods interpret ambiguity as support. In contrast, parsimony is robust to the bias. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Invasive Asian Earthworms Negatively Impact Keystone Terrestrial Salamanders.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julie L Ziemba
Full Text Available Asian pheretimoid earthworms (e.g. Amynthas and Metaphire spp. are invading North American forests and consuming the vital detrital layer that forest floor biota [including the keystone species Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-backed Salamander], rely on for protection, food, and habitat. Plethodon cinereus population declines have been associated with leaf litter loss following the invasion of several exotic earthworm species, but there have been few studies on the specific interactions between pheretimoid earthworms and P. cinereus. Since some species of large and active pheretimoids spatially overlap with salamanders beneath natural cover objects and in detritus, they may distinctively compound the negative consequences of earthworm-mediated resource degradation by physically disturbing important salamander activities (foraging, mating, and egg brooding. We predicted that earthworms would exclude salamanders from high quality microhabitat, reduce foraging efficiency, and negatively affect salamander fitness. In laboratory trials, salamanders used lower quality microhabitat and consumed fewer flies in the presence of earthworms. In a natural field experiment, conducted on salamander populations from "non-invaded" and "pheretimoid invaded" sites in Ohio, salamanders and earthworms shared cover objects ~60% less than expected. Earthworm abundance was negatively associated with juvenile and male salamander abundance, but had no relationship with female salamander abundance. There was no effect of pheretimoid invasion on salamander body condition. Juvenile and non-resident male salamanders do not hold stable territories centered beneath cover objects such as rocks or logs, which results in reduced access to prey, greater risk of desiccation, and dispersal pressure. Habitat degradation and physical exclusion of salamanders from cover objects may hinder juvenile and male salamander performance, ultimately reducing recruitment and salamander abundance
Invasive Asian Earthworms Negatively Impact Keystone Terrestrial Salamanders.
Ziemba, Julie L; Hickerson, Cari-Ann M; Anthony, Carl D
2016-01-01
Asian pheretimoid earthworms (e.g. Amynthas and Metaphire spp.) are invading North American forests and consuming the vital detrital layer that forest floor biota [including the keystone species Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-backed Salamander)], rely on for protection, food, and habitat. Plethodon cinereus population declines have been associated with leaf litter loss following the invasion of several exotic earthworm species, but there have been few studies on the specific interactions between pheretimoid earthworms and P. cinereus. Since some species of large and active pheretimoids spatially overlap with salamanders beneath natural cover objects and in detritus, they may distinctively compound the negative consequences of earthworm-mediated resource degradation by physically disturbing important salamander activities (foraging, mating, and egg brooding). We predicted that earthworms would exclude salamanders from high quality microhabitat, reduce foraging efficiency, and negatively affect salamander fitness. In laboratory trials, salamanders used lower quality microhabitat and consumed fewer flies in the presence of earthworms. In a natural field experiment, conducted on salamander populations from "non-invaded" and "pheretimoid invaded" sites in Ohio, salamanders and earthworms shared cover objects ~60% less than expected. Earthworm abundance was negatively associated with juvenile and male salamander abundance, but had no relationship with female salamander abundance. There was no effect of pheretimoid invasion on salamander body condition. Juvenile and non-resident male salamanders do not hold stable territories centered beneath cover objects such as rocks or logs, which results in reduced access to prey, greater risk of desiccation, and dispersal pressure. Habitat degradation and physical exclusion of salamanders from cover objects may hinder juvenile and male salamander performance, ultimately reducing recruitment and salamander abundance following Asian
Effects of Timber Harvests and Silvicultural Edges on Terrestrial Salamanders
MacNeil, Jami E.; Williams, Rod N.
2014-01-01
Balancing timber production and conservation in forest management requires an understanding of how timber harvests affect wildlife species. Terrestrial salamanders are useful indicators of mature forest ecosystem health due to their importance to ecosystem processes and sensitivity to environmental change. However, the effects of timber harvests on salamanders, though often researched, are still not well understood. To further this understanding, we used artificial cover objects to monitor the relative abundance of terrestrial salamanders for two seasons (fall and spring) pre-harvest and five seasons post-harvest in six forest management treatments, and for three seasons post-harvest across the edge gradients of six recent clearcuts. In total, we recorded 19,048 encounters representing nine species of salamanders. We observed declines in mean encounters of eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) and northern slimy salamanders (P. glutinosus) from pre- to post-harvest in group selection cuts and in clearcuts. However, we found no evidence of salamander declines at shelterwoods and forested sites adjacent to harvests. Edge effects induced by recent clearcuts influenced salamanders for approximately 20 m into the forest, but edge influence varied by slope orientation. Temperature, soil moisture, and canopy cover were all correlated with salamander counts. Our results suggest silvicultural techniques that remove the forest canopy negatively affect salamander relative abundance on the local scale during the years immediately following harvest, and that the depth of edge influence of clearcuts on terrestrial salamanders is relatively shallow (harvests (<4 ha) and techniques that leave the forest canopy intact may be compatible with maintaining terrestrial salamander populations across a forested landscape. Our results demonstrate the importance of examining species-specific responses and monitoring salamanders across multiple seasons and years. Long
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Howard Loudon
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Skin bacterial communities can protect amphibians from a fungal pathogen; however, little is known about how these communities are maintained. We used a neutral model of community ecology to identify bacteria that are maintained on salamanders by selection or by dispersal from a bacterial reservoir (soil and ecological drift. We found that 75% (9/12 of bacteria that were consistent with positive selection, < 1% of bacteria that were consistent with random dispersal and none of the bacteria that were consistent under negative selection had a 97% or greater match to antifungal isolates. Additionally we performed an experiment where salamanders were either provided or denied a bacterial reservoir and estimated immigration and loss (emigration and local extinction rates of bacteria on salamanders in both treatments. Loss was strongly related to bacterial richness, suggesting competition is important for structuring the community. Bacteria closely related to antifungal isolates were more likely to persist on salamanders with or without a bacterial reservoir, suggesting they had a competitive advantage. Furthermore, over-represented and under-represented OTUs had similar persistence on salamanders when a bacterial reservoir was present. However, under-represented OTUs were less likely to persist in the absence of a bacterial reservoir, suggesting that the over-represented and under-represented bacteria are selected for or against on salamanders through time. Our findings from the neutral model, migration and persistence analyses show that bacteria that exhibit a high similarity to antifungal isolates persist on salamanders, which likely protect hosts against pathogens and improve fitness. This research is one of the first to apply ecological theory to investigate assembly of host associated-bacterial communities, which can provide insights for probiotic bioaugmentation as a conservation strategy against disease.
A stem batrachian from the Early Permian of Texas and the origin of frogs and salamanders.
Anderson, Jason S; Reisz, Robert R; Scott, Diane; Fröbisch, Nadia B; Sumida, Stuart S
2008-05-22
The origin of extant amphibians (Lissamphibia: frogs, salamanders and caecilians) is one of the most controversial questions in vertebrate evolution, owing to large morphological and temporal gaps in the fossil record. Current discussions focus on three competing hypotheses: a monophyletic origin within either Temnospondyli or Lepospondyli, or a polyphyletic origin with frogs and salamanders arising among temnospondyls and caecilians among the lepospondyls. Recent molecular analyses are also controversial, with estimations for the batrachian (frog-salamander) divergence significantly older than the palaeontological evidence supports. Here we report the discovery of an amphibamid temnospondyl from the Early Permian of Texas that bridges the gap between other Palaeozoic amphibians and the earliest known salientians and caudatans from the Mesozoic. The presence of a mosaic of salientian and caudatan characters in this small fossil makes it a key taxon close to the batrachian (frog and salamander) divergence. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that the batrachian divergence occurred in the Middle Permian, rather than the late Carboniferous as recently estimated using molecular clocks, but the divergence with caecilians corresponds to the deep split between temnospondyls and lepospondyls, which is congruent with the molecular estimates.
Klopfenstein, Ned B; Stewart, Jane E; Ota, Yuko; Hanna, John W; Richardson, Bryce A; Ross-Davis, Amy L; Elías-Román, Rubén D; Korhonen, Kari; Keča, Nenad; Iturritxa, Eugenia; Alvarado-Rosales, Dionicio; Solheim, Halvor; Brazee, Nicholas J; Łakomy, Piotr; Cleary, Michelle R; Hasegawa, Eri; Kikuchi, Taisei; Garza-Ocañas, Fortunato; Tsopelas, Panaghiotis; Rigling, Daniel; Prospero, Simone; Tsykun, Tetyana; Bérubé, Jean A; Stefani, Franck O P; Jafarpour, Saeideh; Antonín, Vladimír; Tomšovský, Michal; McDonald, Geral I; Woodward, Stephen; Kim, Mee-Sook
2017-01-01
Armillaria possesses several intriguing characteristics that have inspired wide interest in understanding phylogenetic relationships within and among species of this genus. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequence-based analyses of Armillaria provide only limited information for phylogenetic studies among widely divergent taxa. More recent studies have shown that translation elongation factor 1-α (tef1) sequences are highly informative for phylogenetic analysis of Armillaria species within diverse global regions. This study used Neighbor-net and coalescence-based Bayesian analyses to examine phylogenetic relationships of newly determined and existing tef1 sequences derived from diverse Armillaria species from across the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere Armillaria species included for reference. Based on the Bayesian analysis of tef1 sequences, Armillaria species from the Northern Hemisphere are generally contained within the following four superclades, which are named according to the specific epithet of the most frequently cited species within the superclade: (i) Socialis/Tabescens (exannulate) superclade including Eurasian A. ectypa, North American A. socialis (A. tabescens), and Eurasian A. socialis (A. tabescens) clades; (ii) Mellea superclade including undescribed annulate North American Armillaria sp. (Mexico) and four separate clades of A. mellea (Europe and Iran, eastern Asia, and two groups from North America); (iii) Gallica superclade including Armillaria Nag E (Japan), multiple clades of A. gallica (Asia and Europe), A. calvescens (eastern North America), A. cepistipes (North America), A. altimontana (western USA), A. nabsnona (North America and Japan), and at least two A. gallica clades (North America); and (iv) Solidipes/Ostoyae superclade including two A. solidipes/ostoyae clades (North America), A. gemina (eastern USA), A. solidipes/ostoyae (Eurasia), A. cepistipes (Europe and Japan), A. sinapina (North America and Japan), and A. borealis
Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference
Davidson-Pilon, Cameron
2016-01-01
Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...
Liu, Lihong; Xia, Hongyan; Baule, Claudia; Belák, Sándor
2009-01-01
Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (BVDV-1) and Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 2 (BVDV-2) are two recognised bovine pestivirus species of the genus Pestivirus. Recently, a pestivirus, termed SVA/cont-08, was detected in a batch of contaminated foetal calf serum originating from South America. Comparative sequence analysis showed that the SVA/cont-08 virus shares 15-28% higher sequence identity to pestivirus D32/00_'HoBi' than to members of BVDV-1 and BVDV-2. In order to reveal the phylogenetic relationship of SVA/cont-08 with other pestiviruses, a molecular dataset of 30 pestiviruses and 1,896 characters, comprising the 5'UTR, N(pro) and E2 gene regions, was analysed by two methods: maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach. An identical, well-supported tree topology was observed, where four pestiviruses (SVA/cont-08, D32/00_'HoBi', CH-KaHo/cont, and Th/04_KhonKaen) formed a monophyletic clade that is closely related to the BVDV-1 and BVDV-2 clades. The strategy applied in this study is useful for classifying novel pestiviruses in the future.
Reproductive biology of Ambystoma salamanders in the southeastern United States
Glorioso, Brad M.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Hefner, J. M.
2015-01-01
Reproductive aspects of Ambystoma salamanders were investigated at sites in Louisiana (2010–12) and Mississippi (2013). Three species occurred at the Louisiana site, Spotted Salamander (A. maculatum), Marbled Salamander (A. opacum), and Mole Salamander (A. talpoideum), whereas only Spotted Salamanders were studied at the Mississippi site. A total of 162 and 71 egg masses of Spotted Salamanders were examined at the Louisiana and Mississippi sites, respectively. Significantly more Spotted Salamander eggs per egg mass were observed at the Mississippi site (x̄ = 78.2) than the Louisiana site (x̄ = 53.8; P < 0.001). The mean snout–vent length of female Spotted Salamanders at the Mississippi site (82.9 mm) was significantly larger than the Louisiana site (76.1 mm; P < 0.001). Opaque Spotted Salamander egg masses were not found at the Mississippi site, but accounted for 11% of examined egg masses at the Louisiana site. The mean number of eggs per egg mass at the Louisiana site did not differ between opaque (47.3) and clear (54.6) egg masses (P = 0.21). A total of 47 egg masses of the Mole Salamander were examined, with a mean number of 6.7 embryos per mass. Twenty-three individual nests of the Marbled Salamander were found either under or in decaying logs in the dry pond basins. There was no difference between the mean numbers of eggs per mass of attended nests (93.0) versus those that were discovered unattended (86.6; P = 0.67). Females tended to place their nests at intermediate heights within the pond basin.
Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders
Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.
2004-01-01
Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.
Reynaud, Yann; Millet, Julie; Rastogi, Nalin
2015-01-01
Tuberculosis (TB) remains broadly present in the Americas despite intense global efforts for its control and elimination. Starting from a large dataset comprising spoligotyping (n = 21183 isolates) and 12-loci MIRU-VNTRs data (n = 4022 isolates) from a total of 31 countries of the Americas (data extracted from the SITVIT2 database), this study aimed to get an overview of lineages circulating in the Americas. A total of 17119 (80.8%) strains belonged to the Euro-American lineage 4, among which the most predominant genotypic family belonged to the Latin American and Mediterranean (LAM) lineage (n = 6386, 30.1% of strains). By combining classical phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian approaches, this study revealed for the first time a clear genetic structuration of LAM9 sublineage into two subpopulations named LAM9C1 and LAM9C2, with distinct genetic characteristics. LAM9C1 was predominant in Chile, Colombia and USA, while LAM9C2 was predominant in Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe and French Guiana. Globally, LAM9C2 was characterized by higher allelic richness as compared to LAM9C1 isolates. Moreover, LAM9C2 sublineage appeared to expand close to twenty times more than LAM9C1 and showed older traces of expansion. Interestingly, a significant proportion of LAM9C2 isolates presented typical signature of ancestral LAM-RDRio MIRU-VNTR type (224226153321). Further studies based on Whole Genome Sequencing of LAM strains will provide the needed resolution to decipher the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this successful family. PMID:26517715
Kawano, Sandy M; Blob, Richard W
2013-08-01
The invasion of land was a pivotal event in vertebrate evolution that was associated with major appendicular modifications. Although fossils indicate that the evolution of fundamentally limb-like appendages likely occurred in aquatic environments, the functional consequences of using early digited limbs, rather than fins, for terrestrial propulsion have had little empirical investigation. Paleontological and experimental analyses both have led to the proposal of an early origin of "hind limb-driven" locomotion among tetrapods or their ancestors. However, the retention of a pectoral appendage that had already developed terrestrial adaptations has been proposed for some taxa, and few data are available from extant functional models that can provide a foundation for evaluating the relative contributions of pectoral and pelvic appendages to terrestrial support among early stem tetrapods. To examine these aspects of vertebrate locomotor evolution during the invasion of land, we measured three-dimensional ground reaction forces (GRFs) produced by isolated pectoral fins of mudskipper fishes (Periophthalmus barbarus) during terrestrial crutching, and compared these to isolated walking footfalls by the forelimbs and hind limbs of tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum), a species with subequally-sized limbs that facilitate comparisons to early tetrapods. Pectoral appendages of salamanders and mudskippers exhibited numerous differences in GRFs. Compared with salamander forelimbs, isolated fins of mudskippers bear lower vertical magnitudes of GRFs (as a proportion of body weight), and had GRFs that were oriented more medially. Comparing the salamanders' forelimbs and hind limbs, although the peak net GRF occurs later in stance for the forelimb, both limbs experience nearly identical mediolateral and vertical components of GRF, suggesting comparable contributions to support. Thus, forelimbs could also have played a significant locomotor role among basal tetrapods that had limbs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raoul Manenti
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra is a relatively common epigean amphibian, widely distributed throughout Europe, which usually gives birth to aquatic larvae. Even if epigean streams represent the most common places in which the species breeds, in some countries caves with underground waters are also used. To improve our understanding of the habitat features allowing successful breeding of salamanders in underground sites, we combined an exhaustive review of the available literature, especially the grey one, with direct observations performed from 2008 to 2017 in several natural and artificial caves of Lombardy, Liguria and Tuscany (Italy, Ariège and Provence (France. We provide a synthesis of published and unpublished caves in which the fire salamander breeding has been observed, along with a synthesis of the investigated ecological, behavioural and morphological traits. The use of underground sites is reported in several published papers and appears to be a common phenomenon not limited to single karst areas. The absence of predators, the relative stability of the aquatic habitats and the possibility to exploit new ecological resources are environmental factors that favour the breeding of the fire salamander. Our synthesis suggests that breeding of fire salamanders in caves is not a random event, but a widespread phenomenon that may be linked to specific biogeographical factors. Further insights may be obtained by performing genetic analyses on both cave and epigean populations, and considering larger landscape scales for ecological studies as well. Gene flow between salamanders that breed in caves and in streams probably occurs, but on the other hand, assortative mating might limit it, thus allowing the conservation of local adaptations driving successful cave colonisation.
Bromeliad Selection by Two Salamander Species in a Harsh Environment
Ruano-Fajardo, Gustavo; Rovito, Sean M.; Ladle, Richard J.
2014-01-01
Bromeliad phytotelmata are frequently used by several Neotropical amphibian taxa, possibly due to their high humidity, microclimatic stability, and role as a refuge from predators. Indeed, the ability of phytotelmata to buffer against adverse environmental conditions may be instrumental in allowing some amphibian species to survive during periods of environmental change or to colonize sub-optimal habitats. Association between bromeliad traits and salamanders has not been studied at a fine scale, despite the intimate association of many salamander species with bromeliads. Here, we identify microhabitat characteristics of epiphytic bromeliads used by two species of the Bolitoglossa morio group (B. morio and B. pacaya) in forest disturbed by volcanic activity in Guatemala. Specifically, we measured multiple variables for bromeliads (height and position in tree, phytotelma water temperature and pH, canopy cover, phytotelma size, leaf size, and tree diameter at breast height), as well as salamander size. We employed a DNA barcoding approach to identify salamanders. We found that B. morio and B. pacaya occurred in microsympatry in bromeliads and that phytotelmata size and temperature of bromeliad microhabitat were the most important factors associated with the presence of salamanders. Moreover, phytotelmata with higher pH contained larger salamanders, suggesting that larger salamanders or aggregated individuals might modify pH. These results show that bromeliad selection is nonrandom with respect to microhabitat characteristics, and provide insight into the relationship between salamanders and this unique arboreal environment. PMID:24892414
Plethodontid salamander response to Silvilcultural Practices in Missouri Ozark forests
Laura A. Herbeck; David R. Larsen
1999-01-01
There is little information on the effects of tree harvest on salamander populations in the midwestern United States. We present data on plethodontid salamander densities in replicated stands of three forest age classes in the southeastern Ozarks of Missouri. Forest age classes consisted of regeneration-cut sites
Weisrock, David W; Macey, J Robert; Matsui, Masafumi; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Papenfuss, Theodore J
2013-01-01
The salamander family Hynobiidae contains over 50 species and has been the subject of a number of molecular phylogenetic investigations aimed at reconstructing branches across the entire family. In general, studies using the greatest amount of sequence data have used reduced taxon sampling, while the study with the greatest taxon sampling has used a limited sequence data set. Here, we provide insights into the phylogenetic history of the Hynobiidae using both dense taxon sampling and a large mitochondrial DNA sequence data set. We report exclusive new mitochondrial DNA data of 2566 aligned bases (with 151 excluded sites, of included sites 1157 are variable with 957 parsimony informative). This is sampled from two genic regions encoding a 12S-16S region (the 3' end of 12S rRNA, tRNA(VAI), and the 5' end of 16S rRNA), and a ND2-COI region (ND2, tRNA(Trp), tRNA(Ala), tRNA(Asn), the origin for light strand replication--O(L), tRNA(Cys), tRNAT(Tyr), and the 5' end of COI). Analyses using parsimony, Bayesian, and maximum likelihood optimality criteria produce similar phylogenetic trees, with discordant branches generally receiving low levels of branch support. Monophyly of the Hynobiidae is strongly supported across all analyses, as is the sister relationship and deep divergence between the genus Onychodactylus with all remaining hynobiids. Within this latter grouping our phylogenetic results identify six clades that are relatively divergent from one another, but for which there is minimal support for their phylogenetic placement. This includes the genus Batrachuperus, the genus Hynobius, the genus Pachyhynobius, the genus Salamandrella, a clade containing the genera Ranodon and Paradactylodon, and a clade containing the genera Liua and Pseudohynobius. This latter clade receives low bootstrap support in the parsimony analysis, but is consistent across all three analytical methods. Our results also clarify a number of well-supported relationships within the larger
Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.
2017-01-01
Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.
Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.
2012-01-01
In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…
Lesaffre, Emmanuel
2012-01-01
The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd
Effects of red-backed salamanders on ecosystem functions.
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Daniel J Hocking
Full Text Available Ecosystems provide a vast array of services for human societies, but understanding how various organisms contribute to the functions that maintain these services remains an important ecological challenge. Predators can affect ecosystem functions through a combination of top-down trophic cascades and bottom-up effects on nutrient dynamics. As the most abundant vertebrate predator in many eastern US forests, woodland salamanders (Plethodon spp. likely affect ecosystems functions. We examined the effects of red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus on a variety of forest ecosystem functions using a combined approach of large-scale salamander removals (314-m(2 plots and small-scale enclosures (2 m(2 where we explicitly manipulated salamander density (0, 0.5, 1, 2, 4 m(-2. In these experiments, we measured the rates of litter and wood decomposition, potential nitrogen mineralization and nitrification rates, acorn germination, and foliar insect damage on red oak seedlings. Across both experimental venues, we found no significant effect of red-backed salamanders on any of the ecosystem functions. We also found no effect of salamanders on intraguild predator abundance (carabid beetles, centipedes, spiders. Our study adds to the already conflicting evidence on effects of red-backed salamander and other amphibians on terrestrial ecosystem functions. It appears likely that the impact of terrestrial amphibians on ecosystem functions is context dependent. Future research would benefit from explicitly examining terrestrial amphibian effects on ecosystem functions under a variety of environmental conditions and in different forest types.
Could we also be regenerative superheroes, like salamanders?
Dall'Agnese, Alessandra; Puri, Pier Lorenzo
2016-09-01
Development of methods to reawaken the semi-dormant regenerative potential that lies within adult human tissues would hold promise for the restoration of diseased or damaged organs and tissues. While most of the regeneration potential is suppressed in many vertebrates, including humans, during adult life, urodele amphibians (salamanders) retain their regenerative ability throughout adulthood. Studies in newts and axolotls, two salamander models, have provided significant knowledge about adult limb regeneration. In this review, we present a comparative analysis of salamander and mammalian regeneration and discuss how evolutionarily altered properties of the regenerative environment can be exploited to restore full regenerative potential in the human body. © 2016 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.
Berliner, M.
2017-12-01
Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.
Evolution of coprophagy and nutrient absorption in a Cave Salamander
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Daphne Soares
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The transition from carnivory to omnivory is poorly understood. The ability to feed at more than one trophic level theoretically increases an animal’s fitness in a novel environment. Because of the absence of light and photosynthesis, most subterranean ecosystems are characterized by very few trophic levels, such that food scarcity is a challenge in many subterranean habitats. One strategy against starvation is to expand diet breadth. Grotto Salamanders (Eurycea spelaea (Stejneger, 1892 are known to ingest bat guano deliberately, challenging the general understanding that salamanders are strictly carnivorous. Here we tested the hypothesis that grotto salamanders have broadened their diet related to cave adaptation and found that, although coprophagous behavior is present, salamanders are unable to acquire sufficient nutrition from bat guano alone. Our results suggest that the coprophagic behavior has emerged prior to physiological or gut biome adaptations.
Wei, Shu-Jun; Cao, Li-Jun; Gong, Ya-Jun; Shi, Bao-Cai; Wang, Su; Zhang, Fan; Guo, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Yuan-Min; Chen, Xue-Xin
2015-08-01
The oriental fruit moth (OFM) Grapholita molesta is one of the most destructive orchard pests. Assumed to be native to China, the moth is now distributed throughout the world. However, the evolutionary history of this moth in its native range remains unknown. In this study, we explored the population genetic structure, dispersal routes and demographic history of the OFM in China and South Korea based on mitochondrial genes and microsatellite loci. The Mantel test indicated a significant correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance in the populations. Bayesian analysis of population genetic structure (baps) identified four nested clusters, while the geneland analysis inferred five genetic groups with spatial discontinuities. Based on the approximate Bayesian computation approach, we found that the OFM was originated from southern China near the Shilin area of Yunnan Province. The early divergence and dispersal of this moth was dated to the Penultimate glaciation of Pleistocene. Further dispersal from southern to northern region of China occurred before the last glacial maximum, while the expansion of population size in the derived populations in northern region of China occurred after the last glacial maximum. Our results indicated that the current distribution and structure of the OFM were complicatedly influenced by climatic and geological events and human activities of cultivation and wide dissemination of peach in ancient China. We provide an example on revealing the origin and dispersal history of an agricultural pest insect in its native range as well as the underlying factors. © 2015 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Salamanders on the bench - A biocompatibility study of salamander skin secretions in cell cultures.
von Byern, Janek; Mebs, Dietrich; Heiss, Egon; Dicke, Ursula; Wetjen, Oliver; Bakkegard, Kristin; Grunwald, Ingo; Wolbank, Susanne; Mühleder, Severin; Gugerell, Alfred; Fuchs, Heidemarie; Nürnberger, Sylvia
2017-09-01
Salamanders have evolved a wide variety of antipredator mechanisms and behavior patterns, including toxins and noxious or adhesive skin secretions. The high bonding strength of the natural bioadhesives makes these substances interesting for biomimetic research and applications in industrial and medical sectors. Secretions of toxic species may help to understand the direct effect of harmful substances on the cellular level. In the present study, the biocompatibility of adhesive secretions from four salamander species (Plethodon shermani, Plethodon glutinosus, Ambystoma maculatum, Ambystoma opacum) were analyzed using the MTT assay in cell culture and evaluated against toxic secretions of Pleurodeles waltl, Triturus carnifex, Pseudotriton ruber, Tylototriton verrucosus, and Salamandra salamandra. Their effect on cells was tested in direct contact (direct culture) or under the influence of the extract (indirect exposure) in accordance with the protocol of the international standard norm ISO 10993-5. Human dermal fibroblasts (NHDF), umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC), and articular chondrocytes (HAC), as well as the cell lines C2C12 and L929 were used in both culture types. While the adhesive secretions from Plethodon shermani are cytocompatible and those of Ambystoma opacum are even advantageous, those of Plethodon glutinosus and Ambystoma maculatum appear to be cytotoxic to NDHF and HUVEC. Toxic secretions from Salamandra salamandra exhibited harmful effects on all cell types. Pseudotriton ruber and Triturus carnifex secretions affected certain cell types marginally; those from Pleurodeles waltl and Tylototriton verrucosus were generally well tolerated. The study shows for the first time the effect of salamander secretions on the viability of different cell types in culture. Two adhesive secretions appeared to be cell compatible and are therefore promising candidates for future investigations in the field of medical bioadhesives. Among the toxic secretions
Thyroid hormone responsive QTL and the evolution of paedomorphic salamanders.
Voss, S R; Kump, D K; Walker, J A; Shaffer, H B; Voss, G J
2012-11-01
The transformation of ancestral phenotypes into novel traits is poorly understood for many examples of evolutionary novelty. Ancestrally, salamanders have a biphasic life cycle with an aquatic larval stage, a brief and pronounced metamorphosis, followed by a terrestrial adult stage. Repeatedly during evolution, metamorphic timing has been delayed to exploit growth-permissive environments, resulting in paedomorphic salamanders that retain larval traits as adults. We used thyroid hormone (TH) to rescue metamorphic phenotypes in paedomorphic salamanders and then identified quantitative trait loci (QTL) for life history traits that are associated with amphibian life cycle evolution: metamorphic timing and adult body size. We demonstrate that paedomorphic tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum complex) carry alleles at three moderate effect QTL (met1-3) that vary in responsiveness to TH and additively affect metamorphic timing. Salamanders that delay metamorphosis attain significantly larger body sizes as adults and met2 explains a significant portion of this variation. Thus, substitution of alleles at TH-responsive loci suggests an adaptive pleiotropic basis for two key life-history traits in amphibians: body size and metamorphic timing. Our study demonstrates a likely pathway for the evolution of novel paedomorphic species from metamorphic ancestors via selection of TH-response alleles that delay metamorphic timing and increase adult body size.
Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire
Chelgren, Nathan; Adams, Michael J.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Bury, R. Bruce
2011-01-01
Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kanagi Kanapathy
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The research question is whether the positive relationship found between supplier involvement practices and new product development performances in developed economies also holds in emerging economies. The role of supplier involvement practices in new product development performance is yet to be substantially investigated in the emerging economies (other than China. This premise was examined by distributing a survey instrument (Jayaram’s (2008 published survey instrument that has been utilised in developed economies to Malaysian manufacturing companies. To gauge the relationship between the supplier involvement practices and new product development (NPD project performance of 146 companies, structural equation modelling was adopted. Our findings prove that supplier involvement practices have a significant positive impact on NPD project performance in an emerging economy with respect to quality objectives, design objectives, cost objectives, and “time-to-market” objectives. Further analysis using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, yielding a more credible and feasible differentiation, confirmed these results (even in the case of an emerging economy and indicated that these practices have a 28% impact on variance of NPD project performance. This considerable effect implies that supplier involvement is a must have, although further research is needed to identify the contingencies for its practices.
Salamander limb development: integrating genes, morphology, and fossils.
Fröbisch, Nadia B; Shubin, Neil H
2011-05-01
The development of the tetrapod limb during skeletogenesis follows a highly conservative pattern characterized by a general proximo-distal progression in the establishment of skeletal elements and a postaxial polarity in digit development. Salamanders represent the only exception to this pattern and display an early establishment of distal autopodial structures, specifically the basale commune, an amalgamation of distal carpal and tarsal 1 and 2, and a distinct preaxial polarity in digit development. This deviance from the conserved tetrapod pattern has resulted in a number of hypotheses to explain its developmental basis and evolutionary history. Here we summarize the current knowledge of salamander limb development under consideration of the fossil record to provide a deep time perspective of this evolutionary pathway and highlight what data will be needed in the future to gain a better understanding of salamander limb development specifically and tetrapod limb development and evolution more broadly. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Chloride equilibrium potential in salamander cones
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bryson Eric J
2004-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background GABAergic inhibition and effects of intracellular chloride ions on calcium channel activity have been proposed to regulate neurotransmission from photoreceptors. To assess the impact of these and other chloride-dependent mechanisms on release from cones, the chloride equilibrium potential (ECl was determined in red-sensitive, large single cones from the tiger salamander retinal slice. Results Whole cell recordings were done using gramicidin perforated patch techniques to maintain endogenous Cl- levels. Membrane potentials were corrected for liquid junction potentials. Cone resting potentials were found to average -46 mV. To measure ECl, we applied long depolarizing steps to activate the calcium-activated chloride current (ICl(Ca and then determined the reversal potential for the current component that was inhibited by the Cl- channel blocker, niflumic acid. With this method, ECl was found to average -46 mV. In a complementary approach, we used a Cl-sensitive dye, MEQ, to measure the Cl- flux produced by depolarization with elevated concentrations of K+. The membrane potentials produced by the various high K+ solutions were measured in separate current clamp experiments. Consistent with electrophysiological experiments, MEQ fluorescence measurements indicated that ECl was below -36 mV. Conclusions The results of this study indicate that ECl is close to the dark resting potential. This will minimize the impact of chloride-dependent presynaptic mechanisms in cone terminals involving GABAa receptors, glutamate transporters and ICl(Ca.
Ecological implications of metabolic compensation at low temperatures in salamanders.
Catenazzi, Alessandro
2016-01-01
Global warming is influencing the biology of the world's biota. Temperature increases are occurring at a faster pace than that experienced by organisms in their evolutionary histories, limiting the organisms' response to new conditions. Mechanistic models that include physiological traits can help predict species' responses to warming. Changes in metabolism at high temperatures are often examined; yet many species are behaviorally shielded from high temperatures. Salamanders generally favor cold temperatures and are one of few groups of metazoans to be most species-rich in temperate regions. I examined variation in body temperature, behavioral activity, and temperature dependence of resting heart rate, used as a proxy for standard metabolic rate, in fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra). Over 26 years, I found that salamanders are behaviorally active at temperatures as low as 1 °C, and aestivate at temperatures above 16 °C. Infrared thermography indicates limited thermoregulation opportunities for these nocturnal amphibians. Temperature affects resting heart rate, causing metabolic depression above 11 °C, and metabolic compensation below 8 °C: heart rate at 3 °C is 224% the expected heart rate. Thus, salamanders operating at low temperatures during periods of peak behavioral activity are able to maintain a higher metabolic rate than the rate expected in absence of compensation. This compensatory mechanism has important ecological implications, because it increases estimated seasonal heart rates. Increased heart rate, and thus metabolism, will require higher caloric intake for field-active salamanders. Thus, it is important to consider a species performance breadth over the entire temperature range, and particularly low temperatures that are ecologically relevant for cold tolerant species such as salamanders.
Ecological implications of metabolic compensation at low temperatures in salamanders
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alessandro Catenazzi
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Global warming is influencing the biology of the world’s biota. Temperature increases are occurring at a faster pace than that experienced by organisms in their evolutionary histories, limiting the organisms’ response to new conditions. Mechanistic models that include physiological traits can help predict species’ responses to warming. Changes in metabolism at high temperatures are often examined; yet many species are behaviorally shielded from high temperatures. Salamanders generally favor cold temperatures and are one of few groups of metazoans to be most species-rich in temperate regions. I examined variation in body temperature, behavioral activity, and temperature dependence of resting heart rate, used as a proxy for standard metabolic rate, in fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra. Over 26 years, I found that salamanders are behaviorally active at temperatures as low as 1 °C, and aestivate at temperatures above 16 °C. Infrared thermography indicates limited thermoregulation opportunities for these nocturnal amphibians. Temperature affects resting heart rate, causing metabolic depression above 11 °C, and metabolic compensation below 8 °C: heart rate at 3 °C is 224% the expected heart rate. Thus, salamanders operating at low temperatures during periods of peak behavioral activity are able to maintain a higher metabolic rate than the rate expected in absence of compensation. This compensatory mechanism has important ecological implications, because it increases estimated seasonal heart rates. Increased heart rate, and thus metabolism, will require higher caloric intake for field-active salamanders. Thus, it is important to consider a species performance breadth over the entire temperature range, and particularly low temperatures that are ecologically relevant for cold tolerant species such as salamanders.
Ontogenetic evidence for the Paleozoic ancestry of salamanders.
Schoch, Rainer R; Carroll, Robert L
2003-01-01
The phylogenetic positions of frogs, salamanders, and caecilians have been difficult to establish. Data matrices based primarily on Paleozoic taxa support a monophyletic origin of all Lissamphibia but have resulted in widely divergent hypotheses of the nature of their common ancestor. Analysis that concentrates on the character states of the stem taxa of the extant orders, in contrast, suggests a polyphyletic origin from divergent Paleozoic clades. Comparison of patterns of larval development in Paleozoic and modern amphibians provides a means to test previous phylogenies based primarily on adult characteristics. This proves to be highly informative in the case of the origin of salamanders. Putative ancestors of salamanders are recognized from the Permo-Carboniferous boundary of Germany on the basis of ontogenetic changes observed in fossil remains of larval growth series. The entire developmental sequence from hatching to metamorphosis is revealed in an assemblage of over 600 specimens from a single locality, all belonging to the genus Apateon. Apateon forms the most speciose genus of the neotenic temnospondyl family Branchiosauridae. The sequence of ossification of individual bones and the changing configuration of the skull closely parallel those observed in the development of primitive living salamanders. These fossils provide a model of how derived features of the salamander skull may have evolved in the context of feeding specializations that appeared in early larval stages of members of the Branchiosauridae. Larvae of Apateon share many unique derived characters with salamanders of the families Hynobiidae, Salamandridae, and Ambystomatidae, which have not been recognized in any other group of Paleozoic amphibians.
Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel
2013-01-01
Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean
Overview of the status of the Cheat Mountain salamander
Thomas K. Pauley
2010-01-01
Plethodon nettingi, the Cheat Mountain salamander, is endemic to the high elevations of the Allegheny Mountains in eastern West Virginia. In 1938, N.B. Green named the species from specimens collected at Barton Knob, Randolph County, in honor of his friend and colleague Graham Netting.
Reproductive biology of the Del Norte salamander (Plethodon elongatus).
Clara A. Wheeler; Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.; Lisa M. Ollivier
2013-01-01
We examined seasonal reproductive patterns of the Del Norte Salamander, Plethodon elongatus, in mixed conifer and hardwood forests of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon. Seasonal size differences in reproductive structures suggested that maximum spermatogenic activity occurred during the late summer, with spermatozoa transfer to the...
in Chinese giant salamander ( Andrias davidianus , Blanchard, 1871)
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A disease in farmed Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus) was a common event, being an economically important threat for Chinese farms. Based on the clinical signs, epizootiology and pathogens belonging to the genus, Ranavirus was suspected as the possible etiology. Although in a cultured Chinese giant ...
Design tradeoffs in long-term research for stream salamanders
Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell
2017-01-01
Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine-scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) would be the strongest determinants of occupancy for each of the 4 species; however, we found greater support for all species for models including variables describing position within the stream network, stream size, or stream microhabitat. A monitoring design focused on headwater sections had greater power to detect changes in occupancy and the dynamic parameters in each of 3 scenarios for the dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) and red salamander (Pseudotriton ruber). Results for transect length were more variable, but across all species and scenarios, 25-m transects are most suitable as a balance between maximizing detection probability and describing colonization and extinction. These results inform sampling design and provide a general framework for setting appropriate goals, effort, and duration in the initial planning stages of research programs on stream salamanders in the eastern United States.
Salamander blue-sensitive cones lost during metamorphosis.
Chen, Y.; Znoiko, S.; Grip, W.J. de; Crouch, R.K.; Ma, J.X.
2008-01-01
The tiger salamander lives in shallow water with bright light in the aquatic phase, and in dim tunnels or caves in the terrestrial phase. In the aquatic phase, there are five types of photoreceptors--two types of rods and three types of cones. Our previous studies showed that the green rods and
Reproductive allometry in three species of Dusky Salamanders
Richard C. Bruce
2014-01-01
Desmognathus comprises 21 currently recognized species of salamanders in eastern North America. Assemblages of 3â6 species occur in the Appalachian Mountains, wherein the larger species are more aquatic and the smaller more terrestrial. Adaptive divergence along the habitat gradient from stream to forest involves variation in such life-history traits as age and size at...
Seasonality and microhabitat selection in a forest-dwelling salamander
Basile, Marco; Romano, Antonio; Costa, Andrea; Posillico, Mario; Scinti Roger, Daniele; Crisci, Aldo; Raimondi, Ranieri; Altea, Tiziana; Garfì, Vittorio; Santopuoli, Giovanni; Marchetti, Marco; Salvidio, Sebastiano; De Cinti, Bruno; Matteucci, Giorgio
2017-10-01
Many small terrestrial vertebrates exhibit limited spatial movement and are considerably exposed to changes in local environmental variables. Among such vertebrates, amphibians at present experience a dramatic decline due to their limited resilience to environmental change. Since the local survival and abundance of amphibians is intrinsically related to the availability of shelters, conservation plans need to take microhabitat requirements into account. In order to gain insight into the terrestrial ecology of the spectacled salamander Salamandrina perspicillata and to identify appropriate forest management strategies, we investigated the salamander's seasonal variability in habitat use of trees as shelters in relation to tree features (size, buttresses, basal holes) and environmental variables in a beech forest in Italy. We used the occupancy approach to assess tree suitability on a non-conventional spatial scale. Our approach provides fine-grained parameters of microhabitat suitability and elucidates many aspects of the salamander's terrestrial ecology . Occupancy changed with the annual life cycle and was higher in autumn than in spring, when females were found closer to the stream in the study area. Salamanders showed a seasonal pattern regarding the trees they occupied and a clear preference for trees with a larger diameter and more burrows. With respect to forest management, we suggest maintaining a suitable number of trees with a trunk diameter exceeding 30 cm. A practice of selective logging along the banks of streams could help maintain an adequate quantity of the appropriate microhabitat. Furthermore, in areas with a presence of salamanders, a good forest management plan requires leaving an adequate buffer zone around streams, which should be wider in autumn than in spring.
Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors Influencing Salamanders in Riparian Forests: A Review
Hannah L. Clipp; James T. Anderson
2014-01-01
Salamanders and riparian forests are intimately interconnected. Salamanders are integral to ecosystem functions, contributing to vertebrate biomass and complex food webs in riparian forests. In turn, these forests are critical ecosystems that perform many environmental services, facilitate high biodiversity and species richness, and provide habitat to salamander populations. Due to the global decline of amphibians, it is important to understand, as thoroughly and holistically as possible, the...
Anderson, Thomas L; Rowland, Freya E; Semlitsch, Raymond D
2017-11-01
Variation in the timing of breeding (i.e., phenological variation) can affect species interactions and community structure, in part by shifting body size differences between species. Body size differences can be further altered by density-dependent competition, though synergistic effects of density and phenology on species interactions are rarely evaluated. We tested how field-realistic variation in phenology and density affected ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum) predation on spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), and whether these altered salamander dynamics resulted in trophic cascades. In outdoor mesocosms, we experimentally manipulated ringed salamander density (low/high) and breeding phenology (early/late) of both species. Ringed salamander body size at metamorphosis, development, and growth were reduced at higher densities, while delayed phenology increased hatchling size and larval development, but reduced relative growth rates. Survival of ringed salamanders was affected by the interactive effects of phenology and density. In contrast, spotted salamander growth, size at metamorphosis, and survival, as well as the biomass of lower trophic levels, were negatively affected primarily by ringed salamander density. In an additional mesocosm experiment, we isolated whether ringed salamanders could deplete shared resources prior to their interactions with spotted salamanders, but instead found direct interactions (e.g., predation) were the more likely mechanism by which ringed salamanders limited spotted salamanders. Overall, our results indicate the effects of phenological variability on fitness-related traits can be modified or superseded by differences in density dependence. Identifying such context dependencies will lead to greater insight into when phenological variation will likely alter species interactions.
Impact of valley fills on streamside salamanders in southern West Virginia
Wood, Petra Bohall; Williams, Jennifer M.
2013-01-01
Valley fills associated with mountaintop-removal mining bury stream headwaters and affect water quality and ecological function of reaches below fills. We quantified relative abundance of streamside salamanders in southern West Virginia during 2002 in three streams below valley fills (VFS) and in three reference streams (RS). We surveyed 36 10- × 2-m stream transects, once in summer and fall, paired by order and structure. Of 2,343 salamanders captured, 66.7% were from RS. Total salamanders (adults plus larvae) were more abundant in RS than VFS for first-order and second-order reaches. Adult salamanders had greater abundance in first-order reaches of RS than VFS. Larval salamanders were more abundant in second-order reaches of RS than VFS. No stream width or mesohabitat variables differed between VFS and RS. Only two cover variables differed. Silt cover, greater in VFS than RS first-order reaches, is a likely contributor to reduced abundance of salamanders in VFS. Second-order RS had more boulder cover than second-order VFS, which may have contributed to the higher total and larval salamander abundance in RS. Water chemistry assessments of our VFS and RS reported elevated levels of metal and ion concentrations in VFS, which can depress macroinvertebrate populations and likely affect salamander abundance. Valley fills appear to have significant negative effects on stream salamander abundance due to alterations in habitat structure, water quality and chemistry, and macroinvertebrate communities in streams below fills.
Introduction to Bayesian statistics
Bolstad, William M
2017-01-01
There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2003-01-01
As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2010-01-01
Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente
Takeuchi, Masato
2014-01-01
To assess the comparative effectiveness of a monovalent and a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1 and RV5), a Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted. Data of randomized trials from the Cochrane Review in 2012 were extracted and synthesized. For the prevention of severe rotavirus disease up to 2 years, no statistical difference was found in the effectiveness between the 2 types of vaccine (odds ratio: 2.23, 95% credible interval: 0.71-5.20). Similarly, the comparative effectiveness of RV1 and RV5 appeared equivalent for other rotavirus-associated outcome measures, such as prevention of severe disease up to 1 year and all severity of rotavirus infections for up to both 1- and 2-year follow-ups. These results indicates that, overall, RV1 and RV5 offer similar benefits to prevent rotavirus diseases; nonetheless, credible intervals are generally wide, highlighting the necessity of further meta-analyses including updated information or, ideally, controlled trials comparing both vaccines directly.
Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics
Zeevat, Henk
2015-01-01
The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.
Evolution of coprophagy and nutrient absorption in a Cave Salamander
Soares, Daphne; Adams, Rachel; Hammond, Shea; Slay, Michael E.; Fenolio, Danté B.; Niemiller, Matthew L.
2017-01-01
The transition from carnivory to omnivory is poorly understood. The ability to feed at more than one trophic level theoretically increases an animal’s fitness in a novel environment. Because of the absence of light and photosynthesis, most subterranean ecosystems are characterized by very few trophic levels, such that food scarcity is a challenge in many subterranean habitats. One strategy against starvation is to expand diet breadth. Grotto Salamanders (Eurycea spelaea (Stejneger, 1892)) are...
Identification of conservation units of the hynobiid salamander Pachyhynobius shangchengensis.
Su, L-N; Zhao, Y-Y; Wu, X-M; Zhang, H-F; Li, X-C
2015-08-19
The evolutionary significant units (ESUs) of the salamander Pachyhynobius shangchengensis (Hynobiidae) in the Dabieshan mountains, southeastern China, were identified based on mitochondrial DNA data. We used methods for detecting cryptic species, such as the minimum spanning tree, the automatic barcode gap discovery, and the generalized mixed Yule-coalescent model; geographical partitioning was also used to identify the ESUs. A total of four ESUs were identified.
2011-07-22
...] Proposed Low-Effect Habitat Conservation Plan for the California Tiger Salamander, AT&T Portable Generator... Federally listed animal, the California tiger salamander. The applicant would implement a conservation... permanently convert 1.24 acres of upland grassland habitat for the California tiger salamander into a new...
2011-09-07
...] Proposed Safe Harbor Agreement for California Red-legged Frog, California Tiger Salamander, Smith's Blue...-legged frog (Rana draytonii) and California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) and federally..., California tiger salamander, Smith's blue butterfly, and Yadon's piperia on the property subject to the...
Tao, Wenjing; Mayden, Richard L; He, Shunping
2013-03-01
Despite many efforts to resolve evolutionary relationships among major clades of Cyprinidae, some nodes have been especially problematic and remain unresolved. In this study, we employ four nuclear gene fragments (3.3kb) to infer interrelationships of the Cyprinidae. A reconstruction of the phylogenetic relationships within the family using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses is presented. Among the taxa within the monophyletic Cyprinidae, Rasborinae is the basal-most lineage; Cyprinine is sister to Leuciscine. The monophyly for the subfamilies Gobioninae, Leuciscinae and Acheilognathinae were resolved with high nodal support. Although our results do not completely resolve relationships within Cyprinidae, this study presents novel and significant findings having major implications for a highly diverse and enigmatic clade of East-Asian cyprinids. Within this monophyletic group five closely-related subgroups are identified. Tinca tinca, one of the most phylogenetically enigmatic genera in the family, is strongly supported as having evolutionary affinities with this East-Asian clade; an established yet remarkable association because of the natural variation in phenotypes and generalized ecological niches occupied by these taxa. Our results clearly argue that the choice of partitioning strategies has significant impacts on the phylogenetic reconstructions, especially when multiple genes are being considered. The most highly partitioned model (partitioned by codon positions within genes) extracts the strongest phylogenetic signals and performs better than any other partitioning schemes supported by the strongest 2Δln Bayes factor. Future studies should include higher levels of taxon sampling and partitioned, model-based analyses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Drivers of salamander extirpation mediated by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans.
Stegen, Gwij; Pasmans, Frank; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Rouffaer, Lieze O; Van Praet, Sarah; Schaub, Michael; Canessa, Stefano; Laudelout, Arnaud; Kinet, Thierry; Adriaensen, Connie; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Bert, Wim; Bossuyt, Franky; Martel, An
2017-04-19
The recent arrival of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in Europe was followed by rapid expansion of its geographical distribution and host range, confirming the unprecedented threat that this chytrid fungus poses to western Palaearctic amphibians. Mitigating this hazard requires a thorough understanding of the pathogen's disease ecology that is driving the extinction process. Here, we monitored infection, disease and host population dynamics in a Belgian fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population for two years immediately after the first signs of infection. We show that arrival of this chytrid is associated with rapid population collapse without any sign of recovery, largely due to lack of increased resistance in the surviving salamanders and a demographic shift that prevents compensation for mortality. The pathogen adopts a dual transmission strategy, with environmentally resistant non-motile spores in addition to the motile spores identified in its sister species B. dendrobatidis. The fungus retains its virulence not only in water and soil, but also in anurans and less susceptible urodelan species that function as infection reservoirs. The combined characteristics of the disease ecology suggest that further expansion of this fungus will behave as a 'perfect storm' that is able to rapidly extirpate highly susceptible salamander populations across Europe.
Cannibalistic-morph Tiger Salamanders in unexpected ecological contexts
McLean, Kyle I.; Stockwell, Craig A.; Mushet, David M.
2016-01-01
Barred tiger salamanders [Ambystoma mavortium (Baird, 1850)] exhibit two trophic morphologies; a typical and a cannibalistic morph. Cannibalistic morphs, distinguished by enlarged vomerine teeth, wide heads, slender bodies, and cannibalistic tendencies, are often found where conspecifics occur at high density. During 2012 and 2013, 162 North Dakota wetlands and lakes were sampled for salamanders. Fifty-one contained A. mavortium populations; four of these contained cannibalistic morph individuals. Two populations with cannibalistic morphs occurred at sites with high abundances of conspecifics. However, the other two populations occurred at sites with unexpectedly low conspecific but high fathead minnow [Pimephales promelas (Rafinesque, 1820)] abundances. Further, no typical morphs were observed in either of these later two populations, contrasting with earlier research suggesting cannibalistic morphs only occur at low frequencies in salamander populations. Another anomaly of all four populations was the occurrence of cannibalistic morphs in permanent water sites, suggesting their presence was due to factors other than faster growth allowing them to occupy ephemeral habitats. Therefore, our findings suggest environmental factors inducing the cannibalistic morphism may be more complex than previously thought.
Extreme morphological and ecological homoplasy in tropical salamanders.
Parra-Olea, G; Wake, D B
2001-07-03
Fossorial salamanders typically have elongate and attenuated heads and bodies, diminutive limbs, hands and feet, and extremely elongate tails. Batrachoseps from California, Lineatriton from eastern México, and Oedipina from southern México to Ecuador, all members of the family Plethodontidae, tribe Bolitoglossini, resemble one another in external morphology, which has evolved independently. Whereas Oedipina and Batrachoseps are elongate because there are more trunk vertebrae, a widespread homoplasy (parallelism) in salamanders, the genus Lineatriton is unique in having evolved convergently by an alternate "giraffe-neck" developmental program. Lineatriton has the same number of trunk vertebrae as related, nonelongated taxa, but individual trunk vertebrae are elongated. A robust phylogenetic hypothesis, based on sequences of three mtDNA genes, finds Lineatriton to be deeply nested within a clade characterized by generalized ecology and morphology. Lineatriton lineolus, the only currently recognized taxon in the genus, shows unanticipated genetic diversity. Surprisingly, geographically separated populations of L. lineolus are not monophyletic, but are sister taxa of different species of the morphologically generalized genus Pseudoeurycea. Lineatriton, long thought to be a unique monospecific lineage, is polyphyletic. Accordingly, the specialized morphology of Lineatriton displays homoplasy at two hierarchical levels: (i) with respect to other elongate lineages in the family (convergence), and (ii) within what is currently recognized as a single taxon (parallelism). These evolutionary events are of adaptive significance because to invade the lowland tropics salamanders must be either arboreal or fossorial; the repeated evolution of elongation and attenuation has led to multiple lowland invasions.
Polytomies and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Holsinger, Kent E
2005-04-01
Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short branch lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.
Jennie A. Wyderko; Ernest F. Benfield; John C. Maerz; Kristen C. Cecala; Lisa K. Belden
2015-01-01
Many factors contribute to parasites varying in host specificity and distribution among potential hosts.Â Metagonimoides oregonensis is a digenetic trematode that uses stream-dwelling plethodontid salamanders as second intermediate hosts in the Eastern US. We completed a field survey to identify which stream salamander species, at a regional level, are most...
Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors Influencing Salamanders in Riparian Forests: A Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannah L. Clipp
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Salamanders and riparian forests are intimately interconnected. Salamanders are integral to ecosystem functions, contributing to vertebrate biomass and complex food webs in riparian forests. In turn, these forests are critical ecosystems that perform many environmental services, facilitate high biodiversity and species richness, and provide habitat to salamander populations. Due to the global decline of amphibians, it is important to understand, as thoroughly and holistically as possible, the roles of environmental parameters and the impact of human activities on salamander abundance and diversity in riparian forests. To determine the population responses of salamanders to a variety of environmental factors and anthropogenic activities, we conducted a review of published literature that compared salamander abundance and diversity, and then summarized and synthesized the data into general patterns. We identify stream quality, leaf litter and woody debris, riparian buffer width, and soil characteristics as major environmental factors influencing salamander populations in riparian forests, describe and explain salamander responses to those factors, and discuss the effects of anthropogenic activities such as timber harvest, prescribed fires, urbanization, road construction, and habitat fragmentation. This review can assist land and natural resource managers in anticipating the consequences of human activities and preparing strategic conservation plans.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burke, John N.; Bergeron, Christine M.; Todd, Brian D.; Hopkins, William A.
2010-01-01
Mercury (Hg) causes a range of deleterious effects in wildlife, but little is known about its effects on amphibians. Our objective was to determine whether Hg affects performance and behavior in two-lined salamanders (Eurycea bislineata). We collected salamanders from Hg-contaminated and reference sites and assessed speed, responsiveness, and prey capture ability. Mercury concentrations were >17x higher in salamanders from the contaminated sites and were among the highest documented in amphibians. In the first, but not in the second, locomotion trial, we found a significant effect of Hg on speed and responsiveness. In the prey capture experiment, reference salamanders ate approximately twice as many prey items as the contaminated salamanders. Together, our results suggest that sublethal Hg concentrations may negatively affect salamanders by reducing their ability to successfully execute tasks critical to survival. Future work is warranted to determine whether Hg has other sublethal effects on salamanders and whether other amphibians are similarly affected. - Mercury contamination may alter behavior and performance in the northern two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata).
A nondestructive technique to monitor the relative abundance of terrestrial salamanders
Richard M. DeGraaf; Mariko. Yamasaki
1992-01-01
Salamanders are abundant vertebrates in many forest ecosystems, and their annual biomass production can be important in forest food webs (Pough et al. 1987). Population densities of eastern redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) can exceed 2 individuals/m2 in deciduous forests of the United States (Heatwole 1962, Jaeger 1980...
Breanna L. Riedel; Kevin R. Russell; W. Mark Ford; Katherine P. O' Neill; Harry W. Godwin
2008-01-01
Woodland salamander responses to either traditional grazing or silvopasture systems are virtually unknown. An information-theoretic modelling approach was used to evaluate responses of red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to silvopasture and meadow conversions in southern West Virginia. Searches of area-constrained plots and artificial...
Eric B. Sucre; Jessica A. Homyack; Thomas R. Fox; Carola A. Haas
2010-01-01
The use of amphibians as biological indicators of ecosystem health has received considerable attention because of the increasing importance placed upon maintaining biodiversity in forested ecosystems. In this study, we imposed three different eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) treatments: 1) low (n = 4; added 0 salamanders to each...
Effects of edge contrast on redback salamander distribution in even-aged northern hardwoods
Richard M. DeGraaf; Mariko. Yamasaki
2002-01-01
Terrestrial salamanders are sensitive to forest disturbance associated with even-aged management. We studied the distribution of redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) for 4 yr at edges between even-aged northern hardwood stands along three replicate transects in each of three edge contrast types: regeneration/mature, sapling/mature, and...
Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology
Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt
2007-01-01
Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.
Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried
2016-01-01
Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically-based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change, and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species’ persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes, and should also be considered when planning management actions
Vences, Miguel; Sanchez, Eugenia; Hauswaldt, J Susanne; Eikelmann, Daniel; Rodríguez, Ariel; Carranza, Salvador; Donaire, David; Gehara, Marcelo; Helfer, Véronique; Lötters, Stefan; Werner, Philine; Schulz, Stefan; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2014-04-01
The genus Salamandra represents a clade of six species of Palearctic salamanders of either contrasted black-yellow, or uniformly black coloration, known to contain steroidal alkaloid toxins in high concentrations in their skin secretions. This study reconstructs the phylogeny of the genus Salamandra based on DNA sequences of segments of 10 mitochondrial and 13 nuclear genes from 31 individual samples representing all Salamandra species and most of the commonly recognized subspecies. The concatenated analysis of the complete dataset produced a fully resolved tree with most nodes strongly supported, suggesting that a clade composed of the Alpine salamander (S. atra) and the Corsican fire salamander (S. corsica) is the sister taxon to a clade containing the remaining species, among which S. algira and S. salamandra are sister species. Separate analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear data partitions disagreed regarding basal nodes and in the position of the root but concordantly recovered the S. atra/S. corsica as well as the S. salamandra/S. algira relationship. A species-tree analysis suggested almost simultaneous temporal splits between these pairs of species, which we hypothesize was caused by vicariance events after the Messinian salinity crisis (from late Miocene to early Pliocene). A survey of toxins with combined gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy confirmed the presence of samandarine and/or samandarone steroidal alkaloids in all species of Salamandra as well as in representatives of their sister group, Lyciasalamandra. Samandarone was also detected in lower concentrations in other salamandrids including Calotriton, Euproctus, Lissotriton, and Triturus, suggesting that the presence and possible biosynthesis of this alkaloid is plesiomorphic within the Salamandridae. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Taxonomy Icon Data: Japanese giant salamander [Taxonomy Icon
Lifescience Database Archive (English)
Full Text Available Japanese giant salamander Andrias japonicus Chordata/Vertebrata/Amphibia Andrias_japonicus_L.png Andrias_jap...onicus_NL.png Andrias_japonicus_S.png Andrias_japonicus_NS.png http://biosciencedbc....jp/taxonomy_icon/icon.cgi?i=Andrias+japonicus&t=L http://biosciencedbc.jp/taxonomy_icon/icon.cgi?i=Andrias+jap...onicus&t=NL http://biosciencedbc.jp/taxonomy_icon/icon.cgi?i=Andrias+japonicus...&t=S http://biosciencedbc.jp/taxonomy_icon/icon.cgi?i=Andrias+japonicus&t=NS ...
What Do Owls, Salamanders, Flycatchers and Cuckoos Have In Common?
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Musgrave, Maria A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Wildlife Management
2016-09-27
This is an article from the Los Alamos Living magazine. Los Alamos National Laboratory sits on a beautiful and unique landscape that provides important protected habitat to many species, including a few that are federally-listed as threatened or endangered. These species are the Jemez Mountains Salamander, the Mexican Spotted Owl, the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher, the Yellow-billed Cuckoo, and the New Mexico Meadow Jumping Mouse. Part of the job of the Laboratory's wildlife biologists is to survey for these species each year and determine what actions need to be taken if they are found.
Environmental influences on egg and clutch sizes in lentic- and lotic-breeding salamanders
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jon M. Davenport
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Recent research indicates that social and environmental factors influence egg and clutch sizes in amphibians. However, most of this work is based on the reproductively diverse order Anura (frogs and toads, whereas less research has been conducted on Caudata (salamanders and Gymnophiona (caecilians. Researchers have suggested that a relationship exists between social and environmental factors and egg and clutch sizes in salamanders, but studies controlling for phylogenetic context are lacking. We could not identify a sufficient number of comparisons for social influences on egg and clutch sizes; therefore, we focused on environmental influences for this study. Data on egg size, clutch size, environmental factors, and phylogenies for salamanders were assembled from the scientific literature. We used independent, pair-wise comparisons to investigate the association of larval salamander habitat and egg size and the association of larval salamander habitat with clutch sizes within a phylogenetic framework. There is a significant association between larval habitat and egg size; specifically, stream-breeding species produce larger eggs. There is no significant association between larval habitat and clutchsize. Our study confirms earlier reports that salamander egg size is associated with larval environments, but is the first to use phylogenetically independent contrasts to account for the lack of phylogenetic independence of the traits measured (egg size and clutch size associated with many of the diverse lineages. Our study shows that environmental selection pressure can be quite strong on one aspect of salamander reproduction—egg size.
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics
Bolstad, William M
2011-01-01
A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic
Bayesian statistics an introduction
Lee, Peter M
2012-01-01
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jessica A. Homyack
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Intensively-managed forest (IMF ecosystems support environmental processes, retain biodiversity and reduce pressure to extract wood products from other forests, but may affect species, such as plethodontid salamanders, that are associated with closed canopies and possess limited vagility. We describe: (1 critical aspects of IMF ecosystems; (2 effectiveness of plethodontid salamanders as barometers of forest change; (3 two case studies of relationships between salamanders and coarse woody debris (CWD; and (4 research needs for effective management of salamanders in IMF ecosystems. Although plethodontid salamanders are sensitive to microclimate changes, their role as ecological indicators rarely have been evaluated quantitatively. Our case studies of CWD and salamanders in western and eastern forests demonstrated effects of species, region and spatial scale on the existence and strength of relationships between plethodontid species and a “critical” microhabitat variable. Oregon slender salamanders (Batrachoseps wrighti were more strongly associated with abundance of CWD in managed second growth forests than ensatina salamanders (Ensatina eschscholtzii. Similarly, CWD was not an important predictor of abundance of Appalachian salamanders in managed hardwood forest. Gaining knowledge of salamanders in IMF ecosystems is critical to reconciling ecological and economic objectives of intensive forest management, but faces challenges in design and implementation.
Bayesian methods applied to GWAS.
Fernando, Rohan L; Garrick, Dorian
2013-01-01
Bayesian multiple-regression methods are being successfully used for genomic prediction and selection. These regression models simultaneously fit many more markers than the number of observations available for the analysis. Thus, the Bayes theorem is used to combine prior beliefs of marker effects, which are expressed in terms of prior distributions, with information from data for inference. Often, the analyses are too complex for closed-form solutions and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is used to draw inferences from posterior distributions. This chapter describes how these Bayesian multiple-regression analyses can be used for GWAS. In most GWAS, false positives are controlled by limiting the genome-wise error rate, which is the probability of one or more false-positive results, to a small value. As the number of test in GWAS is very large, this results in very low power. Here we show how in Bayesian GWAS false positives can be controlled by limiting the proportion of false-positive results among all positives to some small value. The advantage of this approach is that the power of detecting associations is not inversely related to the number of markers.
Steinfartz, Sebastian; Weitere, Markus; Tautz, Diethard
2007-11-01
Mechanisms and processes of ecologically driven adaptive speciation are best studied in natural situations where the splitting process is still occurring, i.e. before complete reproductive isolation is achieved. Here, we present a case of an early stage of adaptive differentiation under sympatric conditions in the fire salamander, Salamandra salamandra, that allows inferring the underlying processes for the split. Larvae of S. salamandra normally mature in small streams until metamorphosis, but in an old, continuous forest area near Bonn (the Kottenforst), we found salamander larvae not only in small streams but also in shallow ponds, which are ecologically very different from small streams. Common-environment experiments with larvae from both habitat types reveal specific adaptations to these different ecological conditions. Mitochondrial and microsatellite analyses show that the two ecologically differentiated groups also show signs of genetic differentiation. A parallel analysis of animals from a neighbouring much larger forest area (the Eifel), in which larvae mature only in streams, shows no signs of genetic differentiation, indicating that gene flow between ecologically similar types can occur over large distances. Hence, geographical factors cannot explain the differential larval habitat adaptations in the Kottenforst, in particular since adult life and mating of S. salamandra is strictly terrestrial and not associated with larval habitats. We propose therefore that the evolution of these adaptations was coupled with the evolution of cues for assortative mating which would be in line with models of sympatric speciation that suggest a co-evolution of habitat adaptations and associated mating signals.
Sensitivity of two salamander (Ambystoma) species to ultraviolet radiation
Calfee, R.D.; Bridges, C.M.; Little, E.E.
2006-01-01
Increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation reaching the Earth's surface has been implicated in amphibian declines. Recent studies have shown that many amphibian species have differences in sensitivity depending on developmental stage. Embryos and larvae of Ambystoma maculatum (Spotted Salamander) and larvae of Ambystoma talpoideum (Mole Salamander) were exposed to five simulated UV-B treatments in controlled laboratory experiments to determine the relative sensitivity of different lifestages. Hatching success of the embryos exceeded 95% in all treatments; however, the larvae of both species exhibited greater sensitivity to UV-B exposure. Older larvae of A. maculatum that were not exposed to UV-B as embryos were more sensitive than larvae that had hatched during exposure to UV-B. Growth of surviving larvae of A. maculatum was significantly reduced as UV-B intensity increased, whereas growth of A. talpoideum was unaffected. These results were compared to ambient UV-B conditions in natural environments. It appears that the embryo stage is relatively unaffected by UV-B levels observed in natural habitats, probably because of protection from vegetation, organic matter in the water column, oviposition depth, and egg jelly. The larval stage of these species may be at greater risk, particularly if there is an increase in UV-B radiation exposure caused by increases in water clarity and/or decreases in dissolved organic carbon.
Strong selection barriers explain microgeographic adaptation in wild salamander populations.
Richardson, Jonathan L; Urban, Mark C
2013-06-01
Microgeographic adaptation occurs when populations evolve divergent fitness advantages across the spatial scales at which focal organisms regularly disperse. Although an increasing number of studies find evidence for microgeographic adaptation, the underlying causes often remain unknown. Adaptive divergence requires some combination of limited gene flow and strong divergent natural selection among populations. In this study, we estimated the relative influence of selection, gene flow, and the spatial arrangement of populations in shaping patterns of adaptive divergence in natural populations of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum). Within the study region, A. maculatum co-occur with the predatory marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) in some ponds, and past studies have established a link between predation risk and adaptive trait variation in A. maculatum. Using 14 microsatellite loci, we found a significant pattern of genetic divergence among A. maculatum populations corresponding to levels of A. opacum predation risk. Additionally, A. maculatum foraging rate was strongly associated with predation risk, genetic divergence, and the spatial relationship of ponds on the landscape. Our results indicate the sorting of adaptive genotypes by selection regime and strongly suggest that substantial selective barriers operate against gene flow. This outcome suggests that microgeographic adaptation in A. maculatum is possible because strong antagonistic selection quickly eliminates maladapted phenotypes despite ongoing and substantial immigration. Increasing evidence for microgeographic adaptation suggests a strong role for selective barriers in counteracting the homogenizing influence of gene flow. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
Road deicing salt irreversibly disrupts osmoregulation of salamander egg clutches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karraker, Nancy E.; Gibbs, James P.
2011-01-01
It has been postulated that road deicing salts are sufficiently diluted by spring rains to ameliorate any physiological impacts to amphibians breeding in wetlands near roads. We tested this conjecture by exposing clutches of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) to three chloride concentrations (1 mg/L, 145 mg/L, 945 mg/L) for nine days, then transferred clutches to control water for nine days, and measured change in mass at three-day intervals. We measured mass change because water uptake by clutches reduces risks to embryos associated with freezing, predation, and disease. Clutches in controls sequestered water asymptotically. Those in the moderate concentrations lost 18% mass initially and regained 14% after transfer to control water. Clutches in high concentration lost 33% mass and then lost an additional 8% after transfer. Our results suggest that spring rains do not ameliorate the effects of deicing salts in wetlands with extremely high chloride concentrations. - Road deicing salts irreversibly disrupts osmoregulation of salamander egg clutches.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
2016-01-01
is largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...
Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.
2000-01-01
We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
An annotated review of the Salamander types described in the Fauna Japonica
Hoogmoed, M.S.
1978-01-01
The whereabouts of the salamander types described by Temminck & Schlegel in the Fauna Japonica (1838) are discussed and lectotypes are selected from the syntypes for the following nominal species : Salamandra naevia Temminck & Schlegel, S. unguiculata Temminck & Schlegel, S. subcristata Temminck &
Salamander võib õpetada jäsemete kasvatamist / Tiit Kändler
Kändler, Tiit, 1948-
2008-01-01
Salamander on selgroogsete seas ainulaadne olevus. Ta suudab endale kasvatada ka täiskasvanuna uued kehaosad. Kui arstiteadlased välja uurivad, kuidas ta seda teeb, võib see aidata ka inimest rasketest haavadest ravida
Egg predators of an endemic Italian salamander, Salamandrina perspicillata (Savi, 1821
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antonio Romano
2008-05-01
Full Text Available We report new aquatic predators feeding on Northern spectacled salamander eggs, Salamandrina perspicillata, an endemic Italian species. Eggs were preyed upon by the leech, Trocheta bykowskii, and the trichopteran larvae of Potamophylax cingulatus and Halesus appenninus.
2012-06-18
... Surprises'' regulations (50 CFR 17.22(b)(5) and 17.32(b)(5)) for take of tiger salamanders. Covered... interested party on this notice. We particularly seek comments on the following: 1. Biological information...
Stoichiometry of excreta and excretion rates of a stream-dwelling plethodontid salamander
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Stoichiometry of excreta and excretion rates of a stream-dwelling plethodontid salamander in Cincinnati, OH, USA. This dataset is associated with the following...
We investigated the metapopulation structure of the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) using a combination of indirect and direct methods to evaluate two key requirements of modern metapopulation models: 1) that patches support somewhat independent populations ...
How few? Bayesian statistics in injury biomechanics.
Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Schmidt, Allison L; Lucas, Joseph E; Bass, Cameron R
2012-10-01
In injury biomechanics, there are currently no general a priori estimates of how few specimens are necessary to obtain sufficiently accurate injury risk curves for a given underlying distribution. Further, several methods are available for constructing these curves, and recent methods include Bayesian survival analysis. This study used statistical simulations to evaluate the fidelity of different injury risk methods using limited sample sizes across four different underlying distributions. Five risk curve techniques were evaluated, including Bayesian techniques. For the Bayesian analyses, various prior distributions were assessed, each incorporating more accurate information. Simulated subject injury and biomechanical input values were randomly sampled from each underlying distribution, and injury status was determined by comparing these values. Injury risk curves were developed for this data using each technique for various small sample sizes; for each, analyses on 2000 simulated data sets were performed. Resulting median predicted risk values and confidence intervals were compared with the underlying distributions. Across conditions, the standard and Bayesian survival analyses better represented the underlying distributions included in this study, especially for extreme (1, 10, and 90%) risk. This study demonstrates that the value of the Bayesian analysis is the use of informed priors. As the mean of the prior approaches the actual value, the sample size necessary for good reproduction of the underlying distribution with small confidence intervals can be as small as 2. This study provides estimates of confidence intervals and number of samples to allow the selection of the most appropriate sample sizes given known information.
An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.
Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J
2017-11-01
Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ford, W. Mark; Mahoney, Kathleen R.; Russell, Kevin R.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Riddle, Jason D.; Schuler, Thomas M.; Adams, Mary Beth
2015-01-01
Forest management practices that mimic natural canopy disturbances, including prescribed fire and timber harvests, may reduce competition and facilitate establishment of favorable vegetative species within various ecosystems. Fire suppression in the central Appalachian region for almost a century has contributed to a transition from oak-dominated to more mesophytic, fire-intolerant forest communities. Prescribed fire coupled with timber removal is currently implemented to aid in oak regeneration and establishment but responses of woodland salamanders to this complex silvicultural system is poorly documented. The purpose of our research was to determine how woodland salamanders respond to shelterwood harvests following successive burns in a central Appalachian mixed-oak forest. Woodland salamanders were surveyed using coverboard arrays in May, July, and August–September 2011 and 2012. Surveys were conducted within fenced shelterwood-burn (prescribed fires, shelterwood harvest, and fencing to prevent white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus] herbivory), shelterwood-burn (prescribed fires and shelterwood harvest), and control plots. Relative abundance was modeled in relation to habitat variables measured within treatments for mountain dusky salamanders (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), slimy salamanders (Plethodon glutinosus), and eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). Mountain dusky salamander relative abundance was positively associated with canopy cover and there were significantly more individuals within controls than either shelterwood-burn or fenced shelterwood-burn treatments. Conversely, habitat variables associated with slimy salamanders and eastern red-backed salamanders did not differ among treatments. Salamander age-class structure within controls did not differ from shelterwood-burn or fenced shelterwood-burn treatments for any species. Overall, the woodland salamander assemblage remained relatively intact throughout the shelterwoodburn
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network
Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.
2001-01-01
With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William B. Sutton
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.
Effects of host species and environment on the skin microbiome of Plethodontid salamanders
Muletz-Wolz, Carly R.; Yarwood, Stephanie A.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Fleischer, Robert C.; Lips, Karen R.
2018-01-01
The amphibian skin microbiome is recognized for its role in defence against pathogens, including the deadly fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Yet, we have little understanding of evolutionary and ecological processes that structure these communities, especially for salamanders and closely related species. We investigated patterns in the distribution of bacterial communities on Plethodon salamander skin across host species and environments.Quantifying salamander skin microbiome structure contributes to our understanding of how host-associated bacteria are distributed across the landscape, among host species, and their putative relationship with disease.We characterized skin microbiome structure (alpha-diversity, beta-diversity and bacterial operational taxonomic unit [OTU] abundances) using 16S rRNA gene sequencing for co-occurring Plethodon salamander species (35 Plethodon cinereus, 17 Plethodon glutinosus, 10 Plethodon cylindraceus) at three localities to differentiate the effects of host species from environmental factors on the microbiome. We sampled the microbiome of P. cinereus along an elevational gradient (n = 50, 700–1,000 m a.s.l.) at one locality to determine whether elevation predicts microbiome structure. Finally, we quantified prevalence and abundance of putatively anti-Bd bacteria to determine if Bd-inhibitory bacteria are dominant microbiome members.Co-occurring salamanders had similar microbiome structure, but among sites salamanders had dissimilar microbiome structure for beta-diversity and abundance of 28 bacterial OTUs. We found that alpha-diversity increased with elevation, beta-diversity and the abundance of 17 bacterial OTUs changed with elevation (16 OTUs decreasing, 1 OTU increasing). We detected 11 putatively anti-Bd bacterial OTUs that were present on 90% of salamanders and made up an average relative abundance of 83% (SD ± 8.5) per salamander. All salamanders tested negative for Bd.We conclude that
Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.
Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M
2018-02-01
This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.
Deep divergences and extensive phylogeographic structure in a clade of lowland tropical salamanders
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rovito Sean M
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The complex geological history of Mesoamerica provides the opportunity to study the impact of multiple biogeographic barriers on population differentiation. We examine phylogeographic patterns in a clade of lowland salamanders (Bolitoglossa subgenus Nanotriton using two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene. We use several phylogeographic analyses to infer the history of this clade and test hypotheses regarding the geographic origin of species and location of genetic breaks within species. We compare our results to those for other taxa to determine if historical events impacted different species in a similar manner. Results Deep genetic divergence between species indicates that they are relatively old, and two of the three widespread species show strong phylogeographic structure. Comparison of mtDNA and nuclear gene trees shows no evidence of hybridization or introgression between species. Isolated populations of Bolitoglossa rufescens from Los Tuxtlas region constitute a separate lineage based on molecular data and morphology, and divergence between Los Tuxtlas and other areas appears to predate the arrival of B. rufescens in other areas west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The Isthmus appears responsible for Pliocene vicariance within B. rufescens, as has been shown for other taxa. The Motagua-Polochic fault system does not appear to have caused population vicariance, unlike in other systems. Conclusions Species of Nanotriton have responded to some major geological events in the same manner as other taxa, particularly in the case of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The deep divergence of the Los Tuxtlas populations of B. rufescens from other populations highlights the contribution of this volcanic system to patterns of regional endemism, and morphological differences observed in the Los Tuxtlas populations suggests that they may represent an undescribed species of Bolitoglossa. The absence of phylogeographic structure in B
Bayesian methods for data analysis
Carlin, Bradley P.
2009-01-01
Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors
Statistics: a Bayesian perspective
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berry, Donald A
1996-01-01
...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani
We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...
Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.
2016-03-01
In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.
Variational Bayesian Filtering
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šmídl, Václav; Quinn, A.
2008-01-01
Roč. 56, č. 10 (2008), s. 5020-5030 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian filtering * particle filtering * Variational Bayes Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/AS/smidl-variational bayesian filtering.pdf
Bayesian Networks An Introduction
Koski, Timo
2009-01-01
Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni
Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.
1999-04-01
The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.
Randall J. Wilk; Jeffrey D. Ricklefs; Martin G. Raphael
2014-01-01
We evaluated the effect of forest riparian alternative tree buffer designs on Western Red-backed Salamanders (Plethodon vehiculum) along headwater stream banks in managed forests of the Washington Coast Range. We used pit trap live removals in early autumn to estimate relative abundances of surface-active salamanders before and after 3 levels of riparian buffer...
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.
Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2015-03-01
In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).
Apparent survival of the salamander Salamandra salamandra is low because of high migratory activity
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Schaub Michael
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration. Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90% without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.
Apparent survival of the salamander Salamandra salamandra is low because of high migratory activity.
Schmidt, Benedikt R; Schaub, Michael; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2007-09-06
Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.
Stream water temperature limits occupancy of salamanders in mid-Atlantic protected areas
Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Wiewel, Amber N. M.; Rice, Karen C.
2014-01-01
Stream ecosystems are particularly sensitive to urbanization, and tolerance of water-quality parameters is likely important to population persistence of stream salamanders. Forecasted climate and landscape changes may lead to significant changes in stream flow, chemical composition, and temperatures in coming decades. Protected areas where landscape alterations are minimized will therefore become increasingly important for salamander populations. We surveyed 29 streams at three national parks in the highly urbanized greater metropolitan area of Washington, DC. We investigated relationships among water-quality variables and occupancy of three species of stream salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus, Eurycea bislineata, and Pseudotriton ruber). With the use of a set of site-occupancy models, and accounting for imperfect detection, we found that stream-water temperature limits salamander occupancy. There was substantial uncertainty about the effects of the other water-quality variables, although both specific conductance (SC) and pH were included in competitive models. Our estimates of occupancy suggest that temperature, SC, and pH have some importance in structuring stream salamander distribution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trip Lamb
Full Text Available Change in digit number, particularly digit loss, has occurred repeatedly over the evolutionary history of tetrapods. Although digit loss has been documented among distantly related species of salamanders, it is relatively uncommon in this amphibian order. For example, reduction from five to four toes appears to have evolved just three times in the morphologically and ecologically diverse family Plethodontidae. Here we report a molecular phylogenetic analysis for one of these four-toed lineages--the Eurycea quadridigitata complex (dwarf salamanders--emphasizing relationships to other species in the genus. A multilocus phylogeny reveals that dwarf salamanders are paraphyletic with respect to a complex of five-toed, paedomorphic Eurycea from the Edwards Plateau in Texas. We use this phylogeny to examine evolution of digit number within the dwarf-Edwards Plateau clade, testing contrasting hypotheses of digit loss (parallelism among dwarf salamanders versus digit gain (re-evolution in the Edwards Plateau complex. Bayes factors analysis provides statistical support for a five-toed common ancestor at the dwarf-Edwards node, favoring, slightly, the parallelism hypothesis for digit loss. More importantly, our phylogenetic results pinpoint a rare event in the pedal evolution of plethodontid salamanders.
Genetic drift and mutational hazard in the evolution of salamander genomic gigantism.
Mohlhenrich, Erik Roger; Mueller, Rachel Lockridge
2016-12-01
Salamanders have the largest nuclear genomes among tetrapods and, excepting lungfishes, among vertebrates as a whole. Lynch and Conery (2003) have proposed the mutational-hazard hypothesis to explain variation in genome size and complexity. Under this hypothesis, noncoding DNA imposes a selective cost by increasing the target for degenerative mutations (i.e., the mutational hazard). Expansion of noncoding DNA, and thus genome size, is driven by increased levels of genetic drift and/or decreased mutation rates; the former determines the efficiency with which purifying selection can remove excess DNA, whereas the latter determines the level of mutational hazard. Here, we test the hypothesis that salamanders have experienced stronger long-term, persistent genetic drift than frogs, a related clade with more typically sized vertebrate genomes. To test this hypothesis, we compared dN/dS and Kr/Kc values of protein-coding genes between these clades. Our results do not support this hypothesis; we find that salamanders have not experienced stronger genetic drift than frogs. Additionally, we find evidence consistent with a lower nucleotide substitution rate in salamanders. This result, along with previous work showing lower rates of small deletion and ectopic recombination in salamanders, suggests that a lower mutational hazard may contribute to genomic gigantism in this clade. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.
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Philippe Lemey
2009-09-01
Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.
Gifford, Matthew E; Clay, Timothy A; Careau, Vincent
2014-01-01
Repeatability is an important concept in evolutionary analyses because it provides information regarding the benefit of repeated measurements and, in most cases, a putative upper limit to heritability estimates. Repeatability (R) of different aspects of energy metabolism and behavior has been demonstrated in a variety of organisms over short and long time intervals. Recent research suggests that consistent individual differences in behavior and energy metabolism might covary. Here we present new data on the repeatability of body mass, standard metabolic rate (SMR), voluntary exploratory behavior, and feeding rate in a semiaquatic salamander and ask whether individual variation in behavioral traits is correlated with individual variation in metabolism on a whole-animal basis and after conditioning on body mass. All measured traits were repeatable, but the repeatability estimates ranged from very high for body mass (R = 0.98), to intermediate for SMR (R = 0.39) and food intake (R = 0.58), to low for exploratory behavior (R = 0.25). Moreover, repeatability estimates for all traits except body mass declined over time (i.e., from 3 to 9 wk), although this pattern could be a consequence of the relatively low sample size used in this study. Despite significant repeatability in all traits, we find little evidence that behaviors are correlated with SMR at the phenotypic and among-individual levels when conditioned on body mass. Specifically, the phenotypic correlations between SMR and exploratory behavior were negative in all trials but significantly so in one trial only. Salamanders in this study showed individual variation in how their exploratory behavior changed across trials (but not body mass, SMR, and feed intake), which might have contributed to observed changing correlations across trials.
Goedbloed, D J; Czypionka, T; Altmüller, J; Rodriguez, A; Küpfer, E; Segev, O; Blaustein, L; Templeton, A R; Nolte, A W; Steinfartz, S
2017-12-01
The utilization of similar habitats by different species provides an ideal opportunity to identify genes underlying adaptation and acclimatization. Here, we analysed the gene expression of two closely related salamander species: Salamandra salamandra in Central Europe and Salamandra infraimmaculata in the Near East. These species inhabit similar habitat types: 'temporary ponds' and 'permanent streams' during larval development. We developed two species-specific gene expression microarrays, each targeting over 12 000 transcripts, including an overlapping subset of 8331 orthologues. Gene expression was examined for systematic differences between temporary ponds and permanent streams in larvae from both salamander species to establish gene sets and functions associated with these two habitat types. Only 20 orthologues were associated with a habitat in both species, but these orthologues did not show parallel expression patterns across species more than expected by chance. Functional annotation of a set of 106 genes with the highest effect size for a habitat suggested four putative gene function categories associated with a habitat in both species: cell proliferation, neural development, oxygen responses and muscle capacity. Among these high effect size genes was a single orthologue (14-3-3 protein zeta/YWHAZ) that was downregulated in temporary ponds in both species. The emergence of four gene function categories combined with a lack of parallel expression of orthologues (except 14-3-3 protein zeta) suggests that parallel habitat adaptation or acclimatization by larvae from S. salamandra and S. infraimmaculata to temporary ponds and permanent streams is mainly realized by different genes with a converging functionality.
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...
Status of some populations of Mexican salamanders (Amphibia: Plethodontidae
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Gabriela Parra-Olea
1999-06-01
Full Text Available Populations of Mexican plethodontid salamanders have been surveyed non-systematically over the last 25 years. In light of many reports of disappearance of amphibians around the world, we checked for persistence of reported species at ten of these sites. All of the commoner species persist (we observed individuals representing a total of 30 species. While observed densities of many species of Mexican plethodontids are lower to much lower than was the case 20 to 25 years ago, evidence for recent extinctions, such as has been reported for amphibian taxa elsewhere, is equivocal or lacking. Habitat modification has contributed to difficulties in finding certain species.Poblaciones de varias especies de salamandras pletodóntidas en México han sido monitoreadas de manera no sistemática durante los últimos 25 años. Diez de éstas poblaciones fueran visitadas recientemente con el propósito de verificar la persistencia de las especies reportadas para dichas localidades. Nuestras observaciones confirman la persistencia local de más de 30 especies cuyo estatus era desconocido, aunque la frecuencia de observación de estas especies es en general menor que en fechas anteriores. Estas observaciones son particularmente relevantes dada la situación actual de preocupación por la disminución mundial de anfibios.
Road deicing salt irreversibly disrupts osmoregulation of salamander egg clutches.
Karraker, Nancy E; Gibbs, James P
2011-03-01
It has been postulated that road deicing salts are sufficiently diluted by spring rains to ameliorate any physiological impacts to amphibians breeding in wetlands near roads. We tested this conjecture by exposing clutches of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) to three chloride concentrations (1 mg/L, 145 mg/L, 945 mg/L) for nine days, then transferred clutches to control water for nine days, and measured change in mass at three-day intervals. We measured mass change because water uptake by clutches reduces risks to embryos associated with freezing, predation, and disease. Clutches in controls sequestered water asymptotically. Those in the moderate concentrations lost 18% mass initially and regained 14% after transfer to control water. Clutches in high concentration lost 33% mass and then lost an additional 8% after transfer. Our results suggest that spring rains do not ameliorate the effects of deicing salts in wetlands with extremely high chloride concentrations. Copyright Â© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517
Mebs, Dietrich; Pogoda, Werner
2005-04-01
The two major alkaloids, samandarine and samandarone, were identified in the skin secretion of individual specimens from two populations of the European fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra terrestris) by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. High intraspecific variability in the ratio of both alkaloids was observed, but also in individual specimens over a period of 4 months suggesting separate metabolic pathways of the compounds. Alkaloid synthesis appears to take place also in liver, testes and ovaries, whereas the larvae of the salamanders are entirely free of alkaloids.
Bayesian logistic regression analysis
Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an
Bayesian statistical inference
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Bruno De Finetti
2017-04-01
Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.
Muletz-Wolz, Carly R; DiRenzo, Graziella V; Yarwood, Stephanie A; Campbell Grant, Evan H; Fleischer, Robert C; Lips, Karen R
2017-05-01
Diverse bacteria inhabit amphibian skin; some of those bacteria inhibit growth of the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Yet there has been no systematic survey of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria across localities, species, and elevations. This is important given geographic and taxonomic variations in amphibian susceptibility to B. dendrobatidis Our collection sites were at locations within the Appalachian Mountains where previous sampling had indicated low B. dendrobatidis prevalence. We determined the numbers and identities of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria on 61 Plethodon salamanders (37 P. cinereus , 15 P. glutinosus , 9 P. cylindraceus ) via culturing methods and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We sampled co-occurring species at three localities and sampled P. cinereus along an elevational gradient (700 to 1,000 meters above sea level [masl]) at one locality. We identified 50 anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and found that the degree of B. dendrobatidis inhibition was not correlated with relatedness. Five anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial strains occurred on multiple amphibian species at multiple localities, but none were shared among all species and localities. The prevalence of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria was higher at Shenandoah National Park (NP), VA, with 96% (25/26) of salamanders hosting at least one anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial species compared to 50% (7/14) at Catoctin Mountain Park (MP), MD, and 38% (8/21) at Mt. Rogers National Recreation Area (NRA), VA. At the individual level, salamanders at Shenandoah NP had more anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria per individual (μ = 3.3) than those at Catoctin MP (μ = 0.8) and at Mt. Rogers NRA (μ = 0.4). All salamanders tested negative for B. dendrobatidis Anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial species are diverse in central Appalachian Plethodon salamanders, and their distribution varied geographically. The antifungal bacterial species that we identified may play a
Skutschas, Pavel; Stein, Koen
2015-04-01
Kokartus honorarius from the Middle Jurassic (Bathonian) of Kyrgyzstan is one of the oldest salamanders in the fossil record, characterized by a mixture of plesiomorphic morphological features and characters shared with crown-group salamanders. Here we present a detailed histological analysis of its long bones. The analysis of a growth series demonstrates a significant histological maturation during ontogeny, expressed by the progressive appearance of longitudinally oriented primary vascular canals, primary osteons, growth marks, remodelling features in primary bone tissues, as well as progressive resorption of the calcified cartilage, formation of endochondral bone and development of cartilaginous to bony trabeculae in the epiphyses. Apart from the presence of secondary osteons, the long bone histology of Kokartus is very similar to that of miniaturized temnospondyls, other Jurassic stem salamanders, miniaturized seymouriamorphs and modern crown-group salamanders. We propose that the presence of secondary osteons in Kokartus honorarius is a plesiomorphic feature, and the loss of secondary osteons in the long bones of crown-group salamanders as well as in those of miniaturized temnospondyls is the result of miniaturization processes. Hitherto, all stem salamander long bong histology (Kokartus, Marmorerpeton and 'salamander A') has been generally described as having paedomorphic features (i.e. the presence of Katschenko's Line and a layer of calcified cartilage), these taxa were thus most likely neotenic forms. The absence of clear lines of arrested growth and annuli in long bones of Kokartus honorarius suggests that the animals lived in an environment with stable local conditions. © 2015 Anatomical Society.
Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics
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Edward Cripps
2016-07-01
Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively ﬁxed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the beneﬁts of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal speciﬁcation of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.
Walker, Donald M.; Leys, Jacob E.; Dunham, Kelly E.; Oliver, Joshua C.; Schiller, Emily E.; Stephenson, Kelsey S.; Kimrey, John T.; Wooten, Jessica; Rogers, Mark W.
2017-01-01
Environmental DNA (eDNA) can be used as an assessment tool to detect populations of threatened species and provide fine-scale data required to make management decisions. The objectives of this project were to use quantitative PCR (qPCR) to: (i) detect spiked salamander DNA in soil, (ii) quantify eDNA degradation over time, (iii) determine detectability of salamander eDNA in a terrestrial environment using soil, faeces, and skin swabs, (iv) detect salamander eDNA in a mesocosm experiment. Salamander eDNA was positively detected in 100% of skin swabs and 66% of faecal samples and concentrations did not differ between the two sources. However, eDNA was not detected in soil samples collected from directly underneath wild-caught living salamanders. Salamander genomic DNA (gDNA) was detected in all qPCR reactions when spiked into soil at 10.0, 5.0, and 1.0 ng/g soil and spike concentration had a significant effect on detected concentrations. Only 33% of samples showed recoverable eDNA when spiked with 0.25 ng/g soil, which was the low end of eDNA detection. To determine the rate of eDNA degradation, gDNA (1 ng/g soil) was spiked into soil and quantified over seven days. Salamander eDNA concentrations decreased across days, but eDNA was still amplifiable at day 7. Salamander eDNA was detected in two of 182 mesocosm soil samples over 12 weeks (n = 52 control samples; n = 65 presence samples; n = 65 eviction samples). The discrepancy in detection success between experiments indicates the potential challenges for this method to be used as a monitoring technique for small-bodied wild terrestrial salamander populations.
Bayesian optimization for materials science
Packwood, Daniel
2017-01-01
This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...
Bayesian analysis of risk associated with workplace accidents in earthmoving operations
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J. F. García
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper analyses the characteristics of earthmoving operations involving a workplace accident. Bayesian networks were used to identify the factors that best predicted potential risk situations. Inference studies were then conducted to analyse the interplay between different risk factors. We demonstrate the potential of Bayesian networks to describe workplace contexts and predict risk situations from a safety and production planning perspective.
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Nistri Annamaria
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background A major goal in evolutionary biology is to understand the evolution of phenotypic diversity. Both natural and sexual selection play a large role in generating phenotypic adaptations, with biomechanical requirements and developmental mechanisms mediating patterns of phenotypic evolution. For many traits, the relative importance of selective and developmental components remains understudied. Results We investigated ontogenetic trajectories of foot morphology in the eight species of European plethodontid cave salamander to test the hypothesis that adult foot morphology was adapted for climbing. Using geometric morphometrics and other approaches, we found that developmental patterns in five species displayed little morphological change during growth (isometry, where the extensive interdigital webbing in adults was best explained as the retention of the juvenile morphological state. By contrast, three species exhibited significant allometry, with an increase in interdigital webbing during growth. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that multiple evolutionary transitions between isometry and allometry of foot webbing have occurred in this lineage. Allometric parameters of foot growth were most similar to those of a tropical species previously shown to be adapted for climbing. Finally, interspecific variation in adult foot morphology was significantly reduced as compared to variation among juveniles, indicating that ontogenetic convergence had resulted in a common adult foot morphology across species. Conclusions The results presented here provide evidence of a complex history of phenotypic evolution in this clade. The common adult phenotype exhibited among species reveals that selection plays an important part in generating patterns of foot diversity in the group. However, developmental trajectories arriving at this common morphology are distinct; with some species displaying developmental stasis (isometry, while others show an increase
Molecular mechanisms of extensive mitochondrial gene rearrangementin plethodontid salamanders
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mueller, Rachel Lockridge; Boore, Jeffrey L.
2005-06-01
Extensive gene rearrangement is reported in the mitochondrial genomes of lungless salamanders (Plethodontidae). In each genome with a novel gene order, there is evidence that the rearrangement was mediated by duplication of part of the mitochondrial genome, including the presence of both pseudogenes and additional, presumably functional, copies of duplicated genes. All rearrangement-mediating duplications include either the origin of light strand replication and the nearby tRNA genes or the regions flanking the origin of heavy strand replication. The latter regions comprise nad6, trnE, cob, trnT, an intergenic spacer between trnT and trnP and, in some genomes, trnP, the control region, trnF, rrnS, trnV, rrnL, trnL1, and nad1. In some cases, two copies of duplicated genes, presumptive regulatory regions, and/or sequences with no assignable function have been retained in the genome following the initial duplication; in other genomes, only one of the duplicated copies has been retained. Both tandem and non-tandem duplications are present in these genomes, suggesting different duplication mechanisms. In some of these mtDNAs, up to 25 percent of the total length is composed of tandem duplications of non-coding sequence that includes putative regulatory regions and/or pseudogenes of tRNAs and protein-coding genes along with otherwise unassignable sequences. These data indicate that imprecise initiation and termination of replication, slipped-strand mispairing, and intra-molecular recombination may all have played a role in generating repeats during the evolutionary history of plethodontid mitochondrial genomes.
Bayesian approach and application to operation safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.
2003-01-01
The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)
Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.
Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2018-05-01
Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change
Joseph R. Milanovich; William E. Peterman; Nathan P. Nibbelink; John C. Maerz
2010-01-01
Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation....
A new approach for surveying the Alpine Salamander (Salamandra atra in Austria
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ursula Reinthaler-Lottermoser
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The Alpine Salamander is a small pitch black amphibian which is endemic to the European Alps and the Dinarides. It is strictly protected according to the European FFH guidelines. Despite its central role in the alpine ecosystem our actual published record in Austria is small. In order to resolve this shortcoming our project explores its distribution in Austria. It uses a participatory and community based approach to gather data. Everybody can enter and look at Alpine Salamander observations on our website www.alpensalamander.eu. This approach also allows us to establish an “oral history” of Salamander observations in the past 50 years by conducting interviews in the local community. Since July 2009 the website and salamander report database are online. From the actual data (more than 5600 records we already obtained an overview about the present distribution and data quality. The data are an excellent basis for detailed scientific studies on these remarkable amphibians. With this new and highly interactive approach science and education are combined to initiate protection measures with the public.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adam L. Crane
2012-01-01
Full Text Available When new predators invade a habitat, either through range extensions or introductions, prey may be at a high risk because they do not recognize the predators as dangerous. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus has recently expanded its range in North America. Armadillos forage by searching soil and leaf litter, consuming invertebrates and small vertebrates, including salamanders. We tested whether Ozark zigzag salamanders (Plethodon angusticlavius from a population coexisting with armadillos for about 30 years exhibit antipredator behavior in the presence of armadillo chemical cues and whether they can discriminate between stimuli from armadillos and a nonpredatory sympatric mammal (white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus. Salamanders appeared to recognize substrate cues from armadillos as a threat because they increased escape behaviors and oxygen consumption. When exposed to airborne cues from armadillos, salamanders also exhibited an antipredator response by spending more time in an inconspicuous posture. Additionally, individually consistent behaviors across treatments for some response variables suggest the potential for a behavioral syndrome in this species.
Macrohabitat models of occurrence for the threatened Cheat Mountain salamander, Plethodon nettingi
Lester O. Dillard; Kevin R. Russell; W. Mark Ford
2008-01-01
The federally threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi; hereafter CMS) is known to occur at approximately 70 small, scattered sites in the Allegheny Mountains of eastern West Virginia. We used a comparative modeling approach to explain the landscape-level distribution and habitat relationships of CMS in relation to a suite of biotic...
Nancy E. Karraker; Lisa M. Ollivier; Garth R. Hodgson
2005-01-01
Oviposition sites and reproductive ecology of the southern-torrent salamander (Rhyacotriton variegatus) remain poorly documented. This species oviposits in cryptic locations making the detection of eggs difficult. Here we describe the discovery of 1 clutch of eggs of R. variegatus from northern California, which further expands our...
Hart Welsh; Garth Hodgson
2013-01-01
Woodland (Plethodontid) salamanders occur in huge numbers in healthy forests in North America where the abundances of many species vary along successional gradients. Their high numbers and trophic role as predators on shredder and decomposer arthropods influence nutrient and carbon pathways at the leaf litter/soil interface. Their extreme niche conservatism and low...
Exceptional soft tissues preservation in a mummified frog-eating Eocene salamander
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Jérémy Tissier
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Fossils are almost always represented by hard tissues but we present here the exceptional case of a three-dimensionally preserved specimen that was ‘mummified’ (likely between 40 and 34 million years ago in a terrestrial karstic environment. This fossil is the incomplete body of a salamander, Phosphotriton sigei, whose skeleton and external morphology are well preserved, as revealed by phase-contrast synchrotron X-ray microtomography. In addition, internal structures composed of soft tissues preserved in three dimensions are now identified: a lung, the spinal cord, a lumbosacral plexus, the digestive tract, muscles and urogenital organs that may be cloacal glands. These are among the oldest known cases of three-dimensional preservation of these organs in vertebrates and shed light on the ecology of this salamander. Indeed, the digestive tract contains remains of a frog, which represents the only known case of an extinct salamander that fed on a frog, an extremely rare type of predation in extant salamanders. These new data improve our scarce knowledge on soft tissue anatomy of early urodeles and should prove useful for future biologists and palaeontologists working on urodele evolutionary biology. We also suggest that the presence of bat guano and carcasses represented a close source of phosphorus, favouring preservation of soft tissues. Bone microanatomy indicates that P. sigei was likely amphibious or terrestrial, and was probably not neotenic.
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Jéssica Barata da Silva
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Plethodontid salamanders of genus Bolitoglossa constitute the largest and most diverse group of salamanders, including around 20% of living caudate species. Recent studies have indicated the occurrence of five recognized species in the Brazilian Amazon Rainforest. We present here the first cytogenetic data of a Brazilian salamander, which may prove to be a useful by contribution to the cytotaxonomy of the genus. Specimens were collected near the "type" locality (Utinga, Belém, PA, Brazil. Chromosomal preparations from duodenal epithelial cells and testes were subjected to Giemsa staining, C-banding and DAPI/CMA3 fluorochrome staining. All specimens showed a karyotype with 13 bi-armed chromosome pairs (2n = 26. Nucleolar Organizer Regions, evidenced by CMA3, were located distally on the long arm of pair 7 (7q. DAPI+ heterochromatin was predominantly centromeric, with some small pericentromeric bands. Although the C-banding patterns of other Bolitoglossa species are so far unknown, cytogenetic studies conducted in other Plethodontid salamanders have demonstrated that pericentromeric heterochromatin is a useful cytological marker for identifying interspecific homeologies. Species diversification is usually accompanied by chromosomal changes. Therefore, the cytogenetic characterization of Bolitoglossa populations from the middle and western Brazilian Amazon Basin could identify differences which may lead to the identification of new species.
Data from proteomic analysis of the skin of Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus
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Xiaofang Geng
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus, renowned as a living fossil, is the largest and longest-lived amphibian species in the world. Its skin is rich in collagens, and has developed mucous gland which could secrete a large amount of mucus under the scraping and electric stimulation. The molting is the degraded skin stratum corneum. To establish the functional skin proteome of Chinese giant salamander, two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE and mass spectrometry (MS were applied to detect the composition and relative abundance of the proteins in the skin, mucus and molting. The determination of the general proteome in the skin can potentially serve as a foundation for future studies characterizing the skin proteomes from diseased salamander to provide molecular and mechanistic insights into various disease states and potential therapeutic interventions. Data presented here are also related to the research article “Proteomic analysis of the skin of Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus” in the Journal of Proteomics [1].
R. Steven Wagner; Mark P. Miller; Charles M. Crisafulli; Susan M. Haig
2005-01-01
The Larch Mountain salamander (Plethodon larselli Burns, 1954) is an endemic species in the Pacific northwestern United States facing threats related to habitat destruction. To facilitate development of conservation strategies, we used DNA sequences and RAPDs (random amplified polymorphic DNA) to examine differences among populations of this...
Thien, Tao Nguyen; Martel, An; Brutyn, Melanie; Bogaerts, Sergé; Sparreboom, Max; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Fisher, Matthew C; Beukema, Wouter; Van, Tang Duong; Chiers, Koen; Pasmans, Frank
2013-09-01
Until now, Asian amphibians appear to have largely escaped declines driven by chytridiomycosis. Vietnamese salamanders that belong to the genus Tylototriton are rare and have a patchy distribution in mountainous areas, falling within the proposed environmental envelope of chytrid infections, surrounded by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infected regions. If these salamanders are susceptible to chytridiomycosis, then their populations could be highly vulnerable after the introduction of B. dendrobatidis. Examination for the presence of the chytrid fungus in skin swabs from 19 Tylototriton asperrimus and 104 Tylototriton vietnamensis by using quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed. Susceptibility of T. asperrimus to experimental infection by using the global panzootic lineage (BdGPL) strain of B. dendrobatidis was examined. The fungus was absent in all samples from all wild salamanders examined. Inoculation with the BdGPL strain resulted in mortality of all five inoculated salamanders within 3 weeks after inoculation with infected animals that manifested severe orthokeratotic hyperkeratosis, epidermal hyperplasia, and spongiosis. Although infection by B. dendrobatidis currently appears absent in Vietnamese Tylototriton populations, the rarity of these animals, their pronounced susceptibility to chytridiomycosis, an apparently suitable environmental context and increasing likelihood of the pathogen being introduced, together suggest the need of urgent measures to avoid future scenarios of extinction as witnessed in Central America and Australia.
Boisvert, Catherine Anne
2009-01-15
The origin of salamanders and their interrelationships to the two other modern amphibian orders (frogs and caecilians) are problematic owing to an 80-100 million year gap in the fossil record between the Carboniferous to the Lower Jurassic. This is compounded by a scarcity of adult skeletal characters linking the early representatives of the modern orders to their stem-group in the Paleozoic. The use of ontogenetic characters can be of great use in the resolution of these questions. Growth series of all ten modern salamander families (a 120 cleared and stained larvae) were examined for pattern and timing of vertebral elements chondrification and ossification. The primitive pattern is that of the neural arches developing before the centra, while the reverse represents the derived condition. Both the primitive and derived conditions are observed within the family Hynobiidae, whereas only the derived condition is observed in all other salamanders. This provides support to the claims that Hynobiidae is both the most basal of modern families and potentially polyphyletic (with Ranodon and Hybobius forming the most basal clade and Salamandrella being a part of the most derived clade). This provides insight into a unique event in salamander evolutionary history and suggests that the developmental pattern switch occurred between the Triassic and the mid-Jurassic before the last major radiation. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Coexistence in streams: Do source-sink dynamics allow salamanders to persist with fish predators?
Sepulveda, A.J.; Lowe, W.H.
2011-01-01
Theory suggests that source-sink dynamics can allow coexistence of intraguild predators and prey, but empirical evidence for this coexistence mechanism is limited. We used capture-mark-recapture, genetic methods, and stable isotopes to test whether source-sink dynamics promote coexistence between stream fishes, the intraguild predator, and stream salamanders (Dicamptodon aterrimus), the intraguild prey. Salamander populations from upstream reaches without fish were predicted to maintain or supplement sink populations in downstream reaches with fish. We found instead that downstream reaches with fish were not sinks even though fish consumed salamander larvae-apparent survival, recruitment, and population growth rate did not differ between upstream and downstream reaches. There was also no difference between upstream and downstream reaches in net emigration. We did find that D. aterrimus moved frequently along streams, but believe that this is a response to seasonal habitat changes rather than intraguild predation. Our study provides empirical evidence that local-scale mechanisms are more important than dispersal dynamics to coexistence of streams salamanders and fish. More broadly, it shows the value of empirical data on dispersal and gene flow for distinguishing between local and spatial mechanisms of coexistence. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.
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Putta Srikrishna
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The Mexican axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum is considered a hopeful monster because it exhibits an adaptive and derived mode of development - paedomorphosis - that has evolved rapidly and independently among tiger salamanders. Unlike related tiger salamanders that undergo metamorphosis, axolotls retain larval morphological traits into adulthood and thus present an adult body plan that differs dramatically from the ancestral (metamorphic form. The basis of paedomorphic development was investigated by comparing temporal patterns of gene transcription between axolotl and tiger salamander larvae (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum that typically undergo a metamorphosis. Results Transcript abundances from whole brain and pituitary were estimated via microarray analysis on four different days post hatching (42, 56, 70, 84 dph and regression modeling was used to independently identify genes that were differentially expressed as a function of time in both species. Collectively, more differentially expressed genes (DEGs were identified as unique to the axolotl (n = 76 and tiger salamander (n = 292 than were identified as shared (n = 108. All but two of the shared DEGs exhibited the same temporal pattern of expression and the unique genes tended to show greater changes later in the larval period when tiger salamander larvae were undergoing anatomical metamorphosis. A second, complementary analysis that directly compared the expression of 1320 genes between the species identified 409 genes that differed as a function of species or the interaction between time and species. Of these 409 DEGs, 84% exhibited higher abundances in tiger salamander larvae at all sampling times. Conclusions Many of the unique tiger salamander transcriptional responses are probably associated with metamorphic biological processes. However, the axolotl also showed unique patterns of transcription early in development. In particular, the axolotl showed a genome
Bayesian Independent Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt
2007-01-01
In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...... in a Matlab toolbox, is demonstrated for non-negative decompositions and compared with non-negative matrix factorization.......In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...
Arregui, Iñigo
2018-01-01
In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.
Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N
2012-09-01
Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-11-15
These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ^{2} which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H_{0}.
Bayesian networks in reliability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Langseth, Helge [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim (Norway)]. E-mail: helgel@math.ntnu.no; Portinale, Luigi [Department of Computer Science, University of Eastern Piedmont ' Amedeo Avogadro' , 15100 Alessandria (Italy)]. E-mail: portinal@di.unipmn.it
2007-01-15
Over the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.
2015-01-01
A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....
Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kárný, Miroslav
2014-01-01
Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf
Cecala, Kristen K.; Maerz, John C.; Halstead, Brian J.; Frisch, John R.; Gragson, Ted L.; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Leigh, David S.; Jackson, C. Rhett; Peterson, James T.; Pringle, Catherine M.
2018-01-01
Understanding how factors that vary in spatial scale relate to population abundance is vital to forecasting species responses to environmental change. Stream and river ecosystems are inherently hierarchical, potentially resulting in organismal responses to fine‐scale changes in patch characteristics that are conditional on the watershed context. Here, we address how populations of two salamander species are affected by interactions among hierarchical processes operating at different scales within a rapidly changing landscape of the southern Appalachian Mountains. We modeled reach‐level occupancy of larval and adult black‐bellied salamanders (Desmognathus quadramaculatus) and larval Blue Ridge two‐lined salamanders (Eurycea wilderae) as a function of 17 different terrestrial and aquatic predictor variables that varied in spatial extent. We found that salamander occurrence varied widely among streams within fully forested catchments, but also exhibited species‐specific responses to changes in local conditions. While D. quadramaculatus declined predictably in relation to losses in forest cover, larval occupancy exhibited the strongest negative response to forest loss as well as decreases in elevation. Conversely, occupancy of E. wilderae was unassociated with watershed conditions, only responding negatively to higher proportions of fast‐flowing stream habitat types. Evaluation of hierarchical relationships demonstrated that most fine‐scale variables were closely correlated with broad watershed‐scale variables, suggesting that local reach‐scale factors have relatively smaller effects within the context of the larger landscape. Our results imply that effective management of southern Appalachian stream salamanders must first focus on the larger scale condition of watersheds before management of local‐scale conditions should proceed. Our findings confirm the results of some studies while refuting the results of others, which may indicate that
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alicia K. Bird
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A multitude of microorganisms live on and within plant and animal hosts, yet the ecology and evolution of these microbial communities remains poorly understood in many taxa. This study examined the extent to which environmental factors and host taxonomic identity explain microbiome variation within two salamander genera, Ensatina and Batrachoseps, in the family Plethodontidae. In particular, we assessed whether microbiome differentiation paralleled host genetic distance at three levels of taxonomy: genus and high and low clade levels within Ensatina eschscholtzii. We predicted that more genetically related host populations would have more similar microbiomes than more distantly related host populations. We found that salamander microbiomes possess bacterial species that are most likely acquired from their surrounding soil environment, but the relative representation of those bacterial species is significantly different on the skin of salamanders compared to soil. We found differences in skin microbiome alpha diversity among Ensatina higher and lower clade groups, as well as differences between Ensatina and Batrachoseps. We also found that relative microbiome composition (beta diversity did vary between Ensatina lower clades, but differences were driven by only a few clades and not correlated to clade genetic distances. We conclude this difference was likely a result of Ensatina lower clades being associated with geographic location and habitat type, as salamander identity at higher taxonomic levels (genus and Ensatina higher clades was a weak predictor of microbiome composition. These results lead us to conclude that environmental factors are likely playing a more significant role in salamander cutaneous microbiome assemblages than host-specific traits.
Bayesian theory and applications
Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A
2013-01-01
The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
Currens, C.R.; Liss, W.J.; Hoffman, R.L.
2007-01-01
The formation of amphibian population structure is directly affected by predation. Although aquatic predators have been shown to have direct negative effects on larval salamanders in laboratory and field experiments, the potential impacts of gape-limited fish on larval salamander growth has been largely underexplored. We designed an enclosure experiment conducted in situ to quantify the effects of gape-limited Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on larval Northwestern Salamander (Ambystoma gracile) growth. We specifically tested whether the presence of fish too small to consume larvae had a negative effect on larval growth. The results of this study indicate that the presence of a gape-limited S. fontinalis can have a negative effect on growth of larval A. gracile salamanders. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.
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Michael R. Warburg
2007-11-01
Full Text Available This is a long-term study (1974-1999 on the phenology of the rare, xeric- inhabiting salamander Salamandra infraimmaculata in a small isolated population during the breeding season near the breeding ponds on Mt. Carmel. This is a fringe area of the genus’ south-easternmost Palaearctic distribution. Salamanders were captured during the 25 year long study. The first years up to the 1980s the total number of salamanders increased but during the last years there seems to have been a decline. Although this could be a phase in normal population cyclic oscillations nevertheless when compared with long-term data on a European Salamandra it does not seem so. The interpretation of the species’ status is dependent on numbers of salamanders captured as well as on the duration of the study. These subjects are reviewed and discussed in this paper.
Connette, Grant M; Semlitsch, Raymond D
2013-12-01
Forest management often represents a balance between social, economic, and ecological objectives. In the eastern United States, numerous studies have established that terrestrial salamander populations initially decline in abundance following timber harvest, yet the large-scale and long-term consequences are relatively unknown. We used count data from terrestrial survey points to examine the relation between salamander abundance and historic timber harvest while accounting for imperfect detection of individuals. Overall, stream- and terrestrial-breeding salamanders appeared to differ by magnitude of population decline, rate of population recovery, and extent of recolonization from surrounding forest. Specifically, estimated abundance of both species groups was positively associated with stand age and recovery rates were predicted to increase over time for red-legged salamanders (Plethodon shermani) and decrease in stream-breeding species. Abundance of stream-breeding salamanders was predicted to reach a peak by 100 years after timber harvest, and the population growth rate of red-legged salamanders was predicted to undergo a significant increase 100 years after harvest. Estimated abundance of stream-breeding salamanders in young forest stands was also negatively associated with the distance to adjacent forest, a result that suggests immigration has a role in the recovery of these species. Our results indicate that salamander abundance in young forest stands may be only modestly lower than in more mature forest but that full recovery from timber harvest may take a substantial amount of time and that species life history may affect patterns of recovery. Historia de Vida como un Vaticinador de la Tasa de Recuperación de una Salamandra a la Colecta de Madera en los Bosques del Sur de los Apalaches, E.U.A. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.
Bayesian classification and regression trees for predicting incidence of cryptosporidiosis.
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Wenbiao Hu
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Classification and regression tree (CART models are tree-based exploratory data analysis methods which have been shown to be very useful in identifying and estimating complex hierarchical relationships in ecological and medical contexts. In this paper, a Bayesian CART model is described and applied to the problem of modelling the cryptosporidiosis infection in Queensland, Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared the results of a Bayesian CART model with those obtained using a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR model. Overall, the analyses indicated that the nature and magnitude of the effect estimates were similar for the two methods in this study, but the CART model more easily accommodated higher order interaction effects. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A Bayesian CART model for identification and estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk is useful in monitoring and assessment of infectious diseases prevention and control.
Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.
Oldehinkel, Albertine J
2016-09-01
For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Macdonald, R. Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A. H.
2013-01-01
Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave gene...
Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.
Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L
2004-09-01
ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.
Congdon, Peter
2014-01-01
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU
Bayesian nonparametric data analysis
Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim
2015-01-01
This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.
Classification using Bayesian neural nets
J.C. Bioch (Cor); O. van der Meer; R. Potharst (Rob)
1995-01-01
textabstractRecently, Bayesian methods have been proposed for neural networks to solve regression and classification problems. These methods claim to overcome some difficulties encountered in the standard approach such as overfitting. However, an implementation of the full Bayesian approach to
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.
Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G
2013-04-01
Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.
Approximate Bayesian computation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikael Sunnåker
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.
Bayesian inference with ecological applications
Link, William A
2009-01-01
This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...
Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asad Ali
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.
Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community
Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell
2017-01-01
The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.
Distribution of the Sonora Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi) in Mexico
Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Rorabaugh, James C.; Lemos Espinal, Julio A.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Carreon Arroyo, Gerardo; Hurtado Felix, David; Toyos Martinez, Daniel; Jones, Thomas R.
2016-01-01
The Sonoran Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi Lowe, 1954) was listed as federally endangered in the USA in 1997 (USFWS 1997). In the USA, the distribution of A. mavortium stebbinsi is limited to the San Rafael Valley (approximately 567 km2), between the Sierra San Antonio (called the Patagonia Mountains in Arizona) and Huachuca Mountains, and south of the Canelo Hills, Arizona (Fig. 1). The USA listing was triggered by loss of natural wetland habitats, threats from invasive predators, frequent die-offs from disease, introgression with the introduced Barred Tiger Salamander (A. mavortium mavortium), and small range and number of breeding sites that increases susceptibility to stochastic events (USFWS 1997). Small population sizes and limited gene flow have caused inbreeding, which may further reduce population viability and the potential for recovery (Jones et al. 1988; Storfer et al. 2014).
Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens
. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models...
Apparent survival of the salamander Salamandra salamandra is low because of high migratory activity
Schmidt, B R; Schaub, Michael; Steinfartz, S
2007-01-01
Abstract Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are gen...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Clint R V Otto
Full Text Available Habitat degradation resulting from anthropogenic activities poses immediate and prolonged threats to biodiversity, particularly among declining amphibians. Many studies infer amphibian response to habitat degradation by correlating patterns in species occupancy or abundance with environmental effects, often without regard to the demographic processes underlying these patterns. We evaluated how retention of vertical green trees (CANOPY and coarse woody debris (CWD influenced terrestrial salamander abundance and apparent survival in recently clearcut forests. Estimated abundance of unmarked salamanders was positively related to CANOPY (β Canopy = 0.21 (0.02-1.19; 95% CI, but not CWD (β CWD = 0.11 (-0.13-0.35 within 3,600 m2 sites, whereas estimated abundance of unmarked salamanders was not related to CANOPY (β Canopy = -0.01 (-0.21-0.18 or CWD (β CWD = -0.02 (-0.23-0.19 for 9 m2 enclosures. In contrast, apparent survival of marked salamanders within our enclosures over 1 month was positively influenced by both CANOPY and CWD retention (β Canopy = 0.73 (0.27-1.19; 95% CI and β CWD = 1.01 (0.53-1.50. Our results indicate that environmental correlates to abundance are scale dependent reflecting habitat selection processes and organism movements after a habitat disturbance event. Our study also provides a cautionary example of how scientific inference is conditional on the response variable(s, and scale(s of measure chosen by the investigator, which can have important implications for species conservation and management. Our research highlights the need for joint evaluation of population state variables, such as abundance, and population-level process, such as survival, when assessing anthropogenic impacts on forest biodiversity.
2008-10-31
habitat types on population viability ( Biek et al. 2002). However, an accurate assessment of amphibian distributions is necessary for effective...activities on salamander presence and abundance. Base activities, such as construction and maintenance of dirt roads, ditching to control water runoff...abundance in temporary wetlands. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59: 1441-1450. Biek , R., W. C. Funk, B. A. Maxell, and L. S. Mills
A little bit is better than nothing: the incomplete parthenogenesis of salamanders, frogs and fish
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schartl Manfred
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract A re-examination of the mitochondrial genomes of unisexual salamander lineages, published in BMC Evolutionary Biology, shows them to be the oldest unisexual vertebrates known, having been around for 5 million years. This presents a challenge to the prediction that lack of genetic recombination is a fast track to extinction. See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2148/10/238
Gould, P R; Cecala, K K; Drukker, S S; McKenzie, B A; Van de Ven, C
2017-12-01
Geophysical and climate conditions play an important role in the distribution of organisms at both fine and broad scales. Headwater streams integrate changes at broad geographical scales and serve as important regions of nutrient processing and support high biodiversity. Stream salamanders are important members of headwater aquatic communities as both predators and prey. Combined with their biphasic life histories and physiological requirements, stream amphibians may serve as indicators for headwater stream conditions. We surveyed 50 streams for salamander occupancy, across eight counties of the southern Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee for which we are unaware of any stream amphibian distribution data. Our objective was to determine what variables best-predicted stream amphibian occupancy among species with variable life histories and habitat needs. Models were generated to determine the effects of elevation, catchment forest cover, and total catchment size as indicators of stream condition. We found species showed no significant responses to forest cover. Though forest cover has previously been the primary predictor of stream amphibian occupancy in streams across the United States, stream amphibian occupancy of the southern Cumberland Plateau was most closely associated with elevation and catchment size. Thus, the unique topography of the southern Cumberland Plateau may instead be the more important factor driving occupancy patterns. Despite limited evidence in this study for negative human impacts on salamander occupancy, low occupancy and abundance relative to other ecoregions suggests either poor quality habitat or large historic impacts. Developing a more comprehensive understanding of regional stream salamander occupancy patterns is necessary to ensure effective management and habitat conservation in a region with limited description of stream ecology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Sweeten, Sara E.; Ford, W. Mark
2016-01-01
Large-scale coal mining practices, particularly surface coal extraction and associated valley fills as well as residential wastewater discharge, are of ecological concern for aquatic systems in central Appalachia. Identifying and quantifying alterations to ecosystems along a gradient of spatial scales is a necessary first-step to aid in mitigation of negative consequences to aquatic biota. In central Appalachian headwater streams, apart from fish, salamanders are the most abundant vertebrate predator that provide a significant intermediate trophic role linking aquatic and terrestrial food webs. Stream salamander species are considered to be sensitive to aquatic stressors and environmental alterations, as past research has shown linkages among microhabitat parameters, large-scale land use such as urbanization and logging, and salamander abundances. However, there is little information examining these relationships between environmental conditions and salamander occupancy in the coalfields of central Appalachia. In the summer of 2013, 70 sites (sampled two to three times each) in the southwest Virginia coalfields were visited to collect salamanders and quantify stream and riparian microhabitat parameters. Using an information-theoretic framework, effects of microhabitat and large-scale land use on stream salamander occupancy were compared. The findings indicate that Desmognathus spp. occupancy rates are more correlated to microhabitat parameters such as canopy cover than to large-scale land uses. However, Eurycea spp. occupancy rates had a strong association with large-scale land uses, particularly recent mining and forest cover within the watershed. These findings suggest that protection of riparian habitats is an important consideration for maintaining aquatic systems in central Appalachia. If this is not possible, restoration riparian areas should follow guidelines using quick-growing tree species that are native to Appalachian riparian areas. These types of trees
Bayesian methods in clinical trials: a Bayesian analysis of ECOG trials E1684 and E1690
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ibrahim Joseph G
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background E1684 was the pivotal adjuvant melanoma trial for establishment of high-dose interferon (IFN as effective therapy of high-risk melanoma patients. E1690 was an intriguing effort to corroborate E1684, and the differences between the outcomes of these trials have embroiled the field in controversy over the past several years. The analyses of E1684 and E1690 were carried out separately when the results were published, and there were no further analyses trying to perform a single analysis of the combined trials. Method In this paper, we consider such a joint analysis by carrying out a Bayesian analysis of these two trials, thus providing us with a consistent and coherent methodology for combining the results from these two trials. Results The Bayesian analysis using power priors provided a more coherent flexible and potentially more accurate analysis than a separate analysis of these data or a frequentist analysis of these data. The methodology provides a consistent framework for carrying out a single unified analysis by combining data from two or more studies. Conclusions Such Bayesian analyses can be crucial in situations where the results from two theoretically identical trials yield somewhat conflicting or inconsistent results.
Ultrasonography: a method used for pregnancy imaging of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra).
Najbar, A; Kiełbowicz, Z; Szymczak, J; Ogielska, M
2016-12-01
Ultrasound imaging has more frequently been used in veterinary medicine of amphibians and reptiles. In this study, we have verified the usefulness of ultrasound imaging in pregnancy determination of the fire salamander Salamandra salamandra. We have also undertaken to estimate the number of larvae and their developmental stage directly in the oviducts. Three gravid females from Lower Silesia (southern Poland) were examined. Due to the small size of the scanned animals, and the particular arrangement of embryos in the oviducts and ultrasound beams dispersal, the method proved to be inaccurate. Therefore, the minimum number of well-visualized larvae was determined. The maximum number of larvae was established on the basis of the visible fragments of embryos. After birth, we found that the number of larvae born was included in the "min-max" range in only one case. In the remaining two salamanders the number of larvae was higher than estimated in 3 to 7 individuals. The results showed that ultrasound imaging allows the minimum number of larvae in salamander; oviducts to be specified. However, total length measurements were possible only for single and clearly visible embryos.
Salvidio, Sebastiano; Palumbi, Giulia; Romano, Antonio; Costa, Andrea
2017-04-01
Recent studies suggest that many organisms actively colonize the subterranean environment to avoid climatic stress, exploit new ecological opportunities and reduce competition and predation. Terrestrial salamanders are known to colonize the more stable subterranean habitats mainly to escape external climatic extremes, while the role of predation avoidance remains untested. To better understand the importance of predation, we used clay models of the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii to compare the predation occurring in woodland and subterranean habitats. Models were positioned in three forests and in three caves in NW Italy. One-hundred eighty-four models were retrieved from the field and 59 (32%) were attacked by predators. Models were attacked on their head more often than expected by chance and, therefore, were perceived by predators as real prey items. In the woodlands, clay models showed a four-time higher probability of being attacked in comparison to caves, suggesting a different level of potential predation risk in these surface habitats. These findings are one of the first experimental evidences that, in terrestrial ecosystems, predation avoidance may contribute to the salamander underground colonization process.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carly Muletz
Full Text Available Widespread population declines in terrestrial Plethodon salamanders occurred by the 1980s throughout the Appalachian Mountains, the center of global salamander diversity, with no evident recovery. We tested the hypothesis that the historic introduction and spread of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd into the eastern US was followed by Plethodon population declines. We expected to detect elevated prevalence of Bd prior to population declines as observed for Central American plethodontids. We tested 1,498 Plethodon salamanders of 12 species (892 museum specimens, 606 wild individuals for the presence of Bd, and tested 94 of those for Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bs and for ranavirus. Field samples were collected in 2011 from 48 field sites across a 767 km transect. Historic samples from museum specimens were collected at five sites with the greatest number and longest duration of collection (1957-987, four of which were sampled in the field in 2011. None of the museum specimens were positive for Bd, but four P. cinereus from field surveys were positive. The overall Bd prevalence from 1957-2011 for 12 Plethodon species sampled across a 757 km transect was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.7%. All 94 samples were negative for Bs and ranavirus. We conclude that known amphibian pathogens are unlikely causes for declines in these Plethodon populations. Furthermore, these exceptionally low levels of Bd, in a region known to harbor Bd, may indicate that Plethodon specific traits limit Bd infection.
Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.
Dunson, David B
2009-04-01
In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael
2003-01-01
A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...
Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction.
Gönen, Mehmet
2013-12-01
Dimensionality reduction is commonly used as a preprocessing step before training a supervised learner. However, coupled training of dimensionality reduction and supervised learning steps may improve the prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a simple and novel Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction method that combines linear dimensionality reduction and linear supervised learning in a principled way. We present both Gibbs sampling and variational approximation approaches to learn the proposed probabilistic model for multiclass classification. We also extend our formulation toward model selection using automatic relevance determination in order to find the intrinsic dimensionality. Classification experiments on three benchmark data sets show that the new model significantly outperforms seven baseline linear dimensionality reduction algorithms on very low dimensions in terms of generalization performance on test data. The proposed model also obtains the best results on an image recognition task in terms of classification and retrieval performances.
Bayesian Geostatistical Design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand
2006-01-01
This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, to be used in a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situation are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling...... locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...... parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of interpoint distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is often not the best choice....
Breanna L. Riedel; Kevin R. Russell; W. Mark. Ford
2012-01-01
Nonforested habitats such as open fields and pastures have been considered unsuitable for desiccation-prone woodland salamanders such as the Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). Recent research has suggested that Plethodon cinereus may not only disperse across but also reside within open habitats including fields,...
William E Peterman; Raymond D. Semlitch
2009-01-01
Headwater streams are an important and prevalent feature of the eastern North American landscape.These streams provide a wealth of ecosystem services and support tremendous biological diversity, which is predominated by salamanders in the Appalachian region. Salamanders are ubiquitous throughout the region, contributing a significant...
Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn
2016-01-20
The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development
Joint Encoding of Object Motion and Motion Direction in the Salamander Retina.
Kühn, Norma Krystyna; Gollisch, Tim
2016-11-30
The processing of motion in visual scenes is important for detecting and tracking moving objects as well as for monitoring self-motion through the induced optic flow. Specialized neural circuits have been identified in the vertebrate retina for detecting motion direction or for distinguishing between object motion and self-motion, although little is known about how information about these distinct features of visual motion is combined. The salamander retina, which is a widely used model system for analyzing retinal function, contains object-motion-sensitive (OMS) ganglion cells, which strongly respond to local motion signals but are suppressed by global image motion. Yet, direction-selective (DS) ganglion cells have been conspicuously absent from characterizations of the salamander retina, despite their ubiquity in other model systems. We here show that the retina of axolotl salamanders contains at least two distinct classes of DS ganglion cells. For one of these classes, the cells display a strong preference for local over global motion in addition to their direction selectivity (OMS-DS cells) and thereby combine sensitivity to two distinct motion features. The OMS-DS cells are further distinct from standard (non-OMS) DS cells by their smaller receptive fields and different organization of preferred motion directions. Our results suggest that the two classes of DS cells specialize to encode motion direction of local and global motion stimuli, respectively, even for complex composite motion scenes. Furthermore, although the salamander DS cells are OFF-type, there is a strong analogy to the systems of ON and ON-OFF DS cells in the mammalian retina. The retina contains specialized cells for motion processing. Among the retinal ganglion cells, which form the output neurons of the retina, some are known to report the direction of a moving stimulus (direction-selective cells), and others distinguish the motion of an object from a moving background. But little is known
deal: A Package for Learning Bayesian Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Susanne G. Boettcher
2003-12-01
Full Text Available deal is a software package for use with R. It includes several methods for analysing data using Bayesian networks with variables of discrete and/or continuous types but restricted to conditionally Gaussian networks. Construction of priors for network parameters is supported and their parameters can be learned from data using conjugate updating. The network score is used as a metric to learn the structure of the network and forms the basis of a heuristic search strategy. deal has an interface to Hugin.
Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials
Berry, Scott M; Muller, Peter
2010-01-01
Already popular in the analysis of medical device trials, adaptive Bayesian designs are increasingly being used in drug development for a wide variety of diseases and conditions, from Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis to obesity, diabetes, hepatitis C, and HIV. Written by leading pioneers of Bayesian clinical trial designs, Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials explores the growing role of Bayesian thinking in the rapidly changing world of clinical trial analysis. The book first summarizes the current state of clinical trial design and analysis and introduces the main ideas and potential benefits of a Bayesian alternative. It then gives an overview of basic Bayesian methodological and computational tools needed for Bayesian clinical trials. With a focus on Bayesian designs that achieve good power and Type I error, the next chapters present Bayesian tools useful in early (Phase I) and middle (Phase II) clinical trials as well as two recent Bayesian adaptive Phase II studies: the BATTLE and ISP...
Crocker, J.B.; Bank, M.S.; Loftin, C.S.; Jung Brown, R.E.
2007-01-01
We investigated effects of observers and stream flow on Northern Two-Lined Salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) counts in streams in Acadia (ANP) and Shenandoah National Parks (SNP). We counted salamanders in 22 ANP streams during high flow (May to June 2002) and during low flow (July 2002). We also counted salamanders in SNP in nine streams during high flow (summer 2003) and 11 streams during low flow (summers 2001?02, 2004). In 2002, we used a modified cover-controlled active search method with a first and second observer. In succession, observers turned over 100 rocks along five 1-m belt transects across the streambed. The difference between observers in total salamander counts was not significant. We counted fewer E. b. bislineata during high flow conditions, confirming that detection of this species is reduced during high flow periods and that assessment of stream salamander relative abundance is likely more reliable during low or base flow conditions.
Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications
Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia
2015-01-01
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on
Augmenting Data with Published Results in Bayesian Linear Regression
de Leeuw, Christiaan; Klugkist, Irene
2012-01-01
In most research, linear regression analyses are performed without taking into account published results (i.e., reported summary statistics) of similar previous studies. Although the prior density in Bayesian linear regression could accommodate such prior knowledge, formal models for doing so are absent from the literature. The goal of this…
Bayesian model discrimination for glucose-insulin homeostasis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Kim Emil; Brooks, Stephen P.; Højbjerre, Malene
In this paper we analyse a set of experimental data on a number of healthy and diabetic patients and discuss a variety of models for describing the physiological processes involved in glucose absorption and insulin secretion within the human body. We adopt a Bayesian approach which facilitates th...
Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications
Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.
2010-01-01
This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
2006-01-01
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...
Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rivas, T.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.; Matias, J. M.
2009-01-01
We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques - classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks - were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.
Sandoval-Comte, Adriana; Pineda, Eduardo; Aguilar-López, José L
2012-01-01
Worldwide, one in every three species of amphibian is endangered, 39 species have gone extinct in the last 500 years and another 130 species are suspected to have gone extinct in recent decades. Of the amphibians, salamanders have the highest portion of their species in one of the risk categories, even higher than the frogs. To date there have been few studies that have used recent field data to examine the status of populations of endangered salamanders. In this study we evaluate the current situation of two tiny salamanders, Parvimolge townsendi and Thorius pennatulus, both of which are distributed at intermediate elevations in the mountains of the northern Neotropics and are considered to be critically endangered; the first has been proposed as possibly extinct. By carrying out exhaustive surveys in both historical and potentially suitable sites for these two species, we evaluated their abundance and the characteristics of their habitats, and we estimated their potential geographic distribution. We visited 22 sites, investing 672 person-hours of sampling effort in the surveys, and found 201 P. townsendi salamanders in 11 sites and only 13 T. pennatulus salamanders in 5 sites. Both species were preferentially found in cloud forest fragments that were well conserved or only moderately transformed, and some of the salamanders were found in shade coffee plantations. The potential distribution area of both species is markedly fragmented and we estimate that it has decreased by more than 48%. The results of this study highlight the importance of carrying out exhaustive, systematic field surveys to obtain accurate information about the current situation of critically endangered species, and help us better understand the crisis that amphibians are facing worldwide.
Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis with the R package BCEA
Baio, Gianluca; Heath, Anna
2017-01-01
The book provides a description of the process of health economic evaluation and modelling for cost-effectiveness analysis, particularly from the perspective of a Bayesian statistical approach. Some relevant theory and introductory concepts are presented using practical examples and two running case studies. The book also describes in detail how to perform health economic evaluations using the R package BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis). BCEA can be used to post-process the results of a Bayesian cost-effectiveness model and perform advanced analyses producing standardised and highly customisable outputs. It presents all the features of the package, including its many functions and their practical application, as well as its user-friendly web interface. The book is a valuable resource for statisticians and practitioners working in the field of health economics wanting to simplify and standardise their workflow, for example in the preparation of dossiers in support of marketing authorisation, or acade...
A Bayesian approach to combining animal abundance and demographic data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brooks, S. P.
2004-06-01
Full Text Available In studies of wild animals, one frequently encounters both count and mark-recapture-recovery data. Here, we consider an integrated Bayesian analysis of ring¿recovery and count data using a state-space model. We then impose a Leslie-matrix-based model on the true population counts describing the natural birth-death and age transition processes. We focus upon the analysis of both count and recovery data collected on British lapwings (Vanellus vanellus combined with records of the number of frost days each winter. We demonstrate how the combined analysis of these data provides a more robust inferential framework and discuss how the Bayesian approach using MCMC allows us to remove the potentially restrictive normality assumptions commonly assumed for analyses of this sort. It is shown how WinBUGS may be used to perform the Bayesian analysis. WinBUGS code is provided and its performance is critically discussed.
A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders
Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.
1996-01-01
To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.
Bayesian seismic AVO inversion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buland, Arild
2002-07-01
A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S
Bayesian microsaccade detection
Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji
2017-01-01
Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483
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ALEXANDER PULEV
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Two particularly large specimens of Fire Salamander have been registered in southwestern Bulgaria in late winter/early spring. Both of them are adult females with total body length 231 mm, and 219 mm. The two specimens recorded are the largest ones found in Bulgaria so far. Their dimensions are impressive for the entire range of the species. Both specimens have been found during the day in a sunny and dry weather, which has not been registered by other researchers in the cold half of the year in Bulgaria. The winter activity of the species has been confirmed.
Riberon, Alexandre; Miaud, Claude; Guyetant, R; Taberlet, P
2004-06-01
The pattern of genetic differentiation of the endemic alpine salamander, Salamandra atra, has been studied using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) from 11 populations throughout the range of the two currently recognized subspecies, atra and aurorae. Five different primer combinations produced 706 bands and were analyzed by constructing a phylogenetic tree using NJ and principal component analysis. Significant genetic variation was revealed by AFLP between and within populations but, our results show a lack of genetic structure. AFLP markers seems to be unsuitable to investigate complex and recent diversification.
Bennett, W O; Simons, R S; Brainerd, E L
2001-06-01
The function of the lateral hypaxial muscles during locomotion in tetrapods is controversial. Currently, there are two hypotheses of lateral hypaxial muscle function. The first, supported by electromyographic (EMG) data from a lizard (Iguana iguana) and a salamander (Dicamptodon ensatus), suggests that hypaxial muscles function to bend the body during swimming and to resist long-axis torsion during walking. The second, supported by EMG data from lizards during relatively high-speed locomotion, suggests that these muscles function primarily to bend the body during locomotion, not to resist torsional forces. To determine whether the results from D. ensatus hold for another salamander, we recorded lateral hypaxial muscle EMGs synchronized with body and limb kinematics in the tiger salamander Ambystoma tigrinum. In agreement with results from aquatic locomotion in D. ensatus, all four layers of lateral hypaxial musculature were found to show synchronous EMG activity during swimming in A. tigrinum. Our findings for terrestrial locomotion also agree with previous results from D. ensatus and support the torsion resistance hypothesis for terrestrial locomotion. We observed asynchronous EMG bursts of relatively high intensity in the lateral and medial pairs of hypaxial muscles during walking in tiger salamanders (we call these 'alpha-bursts'). We infer from this pattern that the more lateral two layers of oblique hypaxial musculature, Mm. obliquus externus superficialis (OES) and obliquus externus profundus (OEP), are active on the side towards which the trunk is bending, while the more medial two layers, Mm. obliquus internus (OI) and transversus abdominis (TA), are active on the opposite side. This result is consistent with the hypothesis proposed for D. ensatus that the OES and OEP generate torsional moments to counteract ground reaction forces generated by forelimb support, while the OI and TA generate torsional moments to counteract ground reaction forces from hindlimb
Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.
Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan
2018-02-01
Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kenison, Erin K; Litt, Andrea R.; Pilliod, David S.; McMahon, Tom E
2016-01-01
Predation by nonnative fishes has reduced abundance and increased extinction risk for amphibian populations worldwide. Although rare, fish and palatable amphibians have been observed to coexist where aquatic vegetation and structural complexity provide suitable refugia. We examined whether larval long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum Baird, 1849) increased use of vegetation cover in lakes with trout and whether adding vegetation structure could reduce predation risk and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs), such as reductions in body size and delayed metamorphosis. We compared use of vegetation cover by larval salamanders in lakes with and without trout and conducted a field experiment to investigate the influence of added vegetation structure on salamander body morphology and life history. The probability of catching salamanders in traps in lakes with trout was positively correlated with the proportion of submerged vegetation and surface cover. Growth rates of salamanders in enclosures with trout cues decreased as much as 85% and the probability of metamorphosis decreased by 56%. We did not find evidence that adding vegetation reduced NCEs in experimental enclosures, but salamanders in lakes with trout utilized more highly-vegetated areas which suggests that adding vegetation structure at the scale of the whole lake may facilitate coexistence between salamanders and introduced trout.
Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.
2004-01-01
Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses
Reinhardt, Timm; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Paetzold, Achim; Weitere, Markus
2013-09-01
Shifts in life history traits and in the behaviour of species can potentially alter ecosystem functioning. The reproduction of the central European fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), which usually deposits its larvae in first-order streams, in small pool and pond-like habitats, is an example of a recent local adaptation in this species. Here we aimed to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the predatory larvae on the aquatic food webs in the ponds and on the flux of matter between the ponds and adjacent terrestrial habitats. Our estimates are based on biomass data of the present pond fauna as well as on the analysis of stomach content data, growth rates and population dynamics of the salamander larvae in pond habitats. By their deposition of larvae in early spring, female fire salamanders import between 0.07 and 2.86 g dry mass m(-2) larval biomass into the ponds. Due to high mortality rates in the larval phase and the relatively small size at metamorphosis of the pond-adapted salamanders compared to stream-adapted ones, the biomass export of the metamorphosed salamanders clearly falls below the initial biomass import. Catastrophic events such as high water temperatures and low oxygen levels may even occasionally result in mass mortalities of salamander larvae and thus in a net 100 % import of the salamander biomass into the pond food webs. Indirect effects further accelerate this net import of matter into the aquatic habitat, e.g. the feeding of salamanders on aquatic insect larvae with the emergence of terrestrial adults-thus preventing export-and on terrestrial organisms that fall on the water surface (supporting import). This study demonstrates that the adaptation of salamanders to pond reproduction can alter food web linkages across ecosystem boundaries by enhancing the flux of materials and energy from terrestrial (i.e. forest) to the aquatic (i.e. pond) habitat.
Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Maxell, Bryce A.
2012-01-01
Studies have demonstrated negative effects of non-native, predatory fishes on native amphibians, yet it is still unclear why some amphibian populations persist, while others are extirpated, following fish invasion. We examined this question by developing habitat-based occupancy models for the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and nonnative fish using survey data from 1,749 water bodies across 470 catchments in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We first modeled the habitat associations of salamanders at 468 fishless water bodies in 154 catchments where non-native fish were historically, and are currently, absent from the entire catchment. Wethen applied this habitat model to the complete data set to predict the probability of salamander occupancy in each water body, removing any effect of fish presence. Finally, we compared field-observed occurrences of salamanders and fish to modeled probability of salamander occupancy. Suitability models indicated that fish and salamanders had similar habitat preferences, possibly resulting in extirpations of salamander populations from entire catchments where suitable habitats were limiting. Salamanders coexisted with non-native fish in some catchments by using marginal quality, isolated (no inlet or outlet) habitats that remained fishless. They rarely coexisted with fish within individual water bodies and only where habitat quality was highest. Connectivity of water bodies via streams resulted in increased probability of fish invasion and consequently reduced probability of salamander occupancy.These results could be used to identify and prioritize catchments and water bodies where control measures would be most effective at restoring amphibian populations. Our approach could be useful as a framework for improved investigations into questions of persistence and extirpation of native species when non-native species have already become established.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS
Ntzoufras, Ioannis
2009-01-01
A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.
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Carla Chia-Ming Chen
Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.
3D Bayesian contextual classifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rasmus
2000-01-01
We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda
2006-01-01
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Bayesian variable selection in regression
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mitchell, T.J.; Beauchamp, J.J.
1987-01-01
This paper is concerned with the selection of subsets of ''predictor'' variables in a linear regression model for the prediction of a ''dependent'' variable. We take a Bayesian approach and assign a probability distribution to the dependent variable through a specification of prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the regression model. The appropriate posterior probabilities are derived for each submodel and methods are proposed for evaluating the family of prior distributions. Examples are given that show the application of the Bayesian methodology. 23 refs., 3 figs.
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael
2009-01-01
Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees a...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....... and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last...
Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belinda Hernández
2015-12-01
In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.
Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.
Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W
2018-05-01
Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations
Dimitrakakis, C.
2009-01-01
We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more
The humble Bayesian : Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective
Morey, Richard D.; Romeijn, Jan-Willem; Rouder, Jeffrey N.
Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the usual story in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present
A.P. McIntyre; R.A. Schmitz; C.M. Crisafulli
2006-01-01
We explored the association between Van Dyke's salamander (Plethodon vandykei) and hydrologic condition, geomorphology, and vegetation structure in headwall seeps in the Cascade Range of Washington State. We modeled occurrence of P. vandykei at three site scales: between seeps, within seeps, and between microhabitat sites...
S. Conner Keitzer; Reuben. Goforth
2012-01-01
Summary 1. Increased fine sediment deposition is a prevalent threat to stream biodiversity and has been shown to impact stream-breeding salamanders negatively. However, their complex life histories make it difficult to determine which stage is affected. 2. We conducted field experiments from 26 August to 11 September 2010 and 11 October to 11...
M. L. Best; H. H. Welsh
2014-01-01
Woodland (Plethodontid) salamanders are the most abundant vertebrates in North American forests, functioning as predators on invertebrates and prey for higher trophic levels. We investigated the role of Ensatina (Ensatina eschscholtzii) in regulating invertebrate numbers and leaf litter retention in a northern California forest. Our objective was...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason Munshi-South
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Urbanization is a major cause of amphibian decline. Stream-dwelling plethodontid salamanders are particularly susceptible to urbanization due to declining water quality and hydrological changes, but few studies have examined these taxa in cities. The northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus was once common in the New York City metropolitan area, but has substantially declined throughout the region in recent decades. We used five tetranucleotide microsatellite loci to examine population differentiation, genetic variation, and bottlenecks among five remnant urban populations of dusky salamanders in NYC. These genetic measures provide information on isolation, prevalence of inbreeding, long-term prospects for population persistence, and potential for evolutionary responses to future environmental change. All populations were genetically differentiated from each other, and the most isolated populations in Manhattan have maintained very little genetic variation (i.e. <20% heterozygosity. A majority of the populations also exhibited evidence of genetic bottlenecks. These findings contrast with published estimates of high genetic variation within and lack of structure between populations of other desmognathine salamanders sampled over similar or larger spatial scales. Declines in genetic variation likely resulted from population extirpations and the degradation of stream and terrestrial paths for dispersal in NYC. Loss of genetic variability in populations isolated by human development may be an underappreciated cause and/or consequence of the decline of this species in urbanized areas of the northeast USA.
Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty
2012-01-01
Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for
Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Turner Joanne
2009-12-01
case study the effective number of inputs was reduced from 30 to 7 in the screening stage, and just 2 inputs were found to explain 82.8% of the output variance. A combined total of 500 runs of the computer code were used. Conclusion These case studies illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics to perform detailed uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, integrating multiple information sources in a way that is both rigorous and efficient.
A Bayesian account of quantum histories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marlow, Thomas
2006-01-01
We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistent with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tian Hai-feng
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Leptin is an important hormone possessing diverse physiological roles in mammals and teleosts. However, it has been characterized only in a few amphibian species, and its evolutions are still under debate. Here, the full length of the leptin (Adlep cDNA of Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus, an early diverging amphibian species, is characterized and according to the results of the primary sequence analysis, tertiary structure reconstruction and phylogenetic analysis is confirmed to be an ortholog of mammalian leptin. An intron was identified between the coding exons of A. davidianus leptin, which indicated that the leptin is present in the salamander genome and contains a conserved gene structure in vertebrates. Adlep is widely distributed but expression levels vary among different tissues, with highest expression levels in the muscle. Additionally, the leptin receptor and other genes were mapped to three known leptin signaling pathways, suggesting that the leptin signaling pathways are present in A. davidianus. Phylogenetic topology of leptins are consistent with the generally accepted evolutionary relationships of vertebrates, and multiple leptin members found in teleosts seem to be obtained through a Cluopeocephala-specific gene duplication event. Our results will lay a foundation for further investigations into the physiological roles of leptin in A. davidianus.
Goniakowska-Witalińska, L
1978-07-27
Ultrastructural and morphometric investigations were performed on the lung of the European salamander, Salamandra salamandra L. Folds of first and second order are covered with a ciliated epithelium containing goblet cells. The respiratory surface of the lung is lined by a single type of cell which, in amphibians, combines features of type I and type II alveolar cells of the mammalian lung. In the salamander the respiratory and ciliated epithelial cells as well as goblet cells possess electron dense and lucent vesicles in their cytoplasm as well as lamellar bodies. A small amount of surfactant, composed most probably of phospholipids and mucopolysaccharides, was observed covering the entire inner surface of the lung. Morphometric methods were used to determine the dimensions of the perinuclear region of pneumocytes, the thickness of the air-blood barrier and lung wall, and also the diameter of capillaries. The thickness of the respiratory air-blood barrier was found to be considerably higher than that of the corresponding barrier in mammals.
Blooi, M; Pasmans, F; Rouffaer, L; Haesebrouck, F; Vercammen, F; Martel, A
2015-06-30
Chytridiomycosis caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) poses a serious threat to urodelan diversity worldwide. Antimycotic treatment of this disease using protocols developed for the related fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), results in therapeutic failure. Here, we reveal that this therapeutic failure is partly due to different minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of antimycotics against Bsal and Bd. In vitro growth inhibition of Bsal occurs after exposure to voriconazole, polymyxin E, itraconazole and terbinafine but not to florfenicol. Synergistic effects between polymyxin E and voriconazole or itraconazole significantly decreased the combined MICs necessary to inhibit Bsal growth. Topical treatment of infected fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra), with voriconazole or itraconazole alone (12.5 μg/ml and 0.6 μg/ml respectively) or in combination with polymyxin E (2000 IU/ml) at an ambient temperature of 15 °C during 10 days decreased fungal loads but did not clear Bsal infections. However, topical treatment of Bsal infected animals with a combination of polymyxin E (2000 IU/ml) and voriconazole (12.5 μg/ml) at an ambient temperature of 20 °C resulted in clearance of Bsal infections. This treatment protocol was validated in 12 fire salamanders infected with Bsal during a field outbreak and resulted in clearance of infection in all animals.
Functional trade-offs in the aquatic feeding performance of salamanders.
Stinson, Charlotte M; Deban, Stephen M
2017-12-01
During aquatic feeding salamanders use the hyobranchial apparatus to capture prey. The hyobranchial apparatus depresses the floor of the mouth, effectively expanding the oropharyngeal cavity and generating suction. Within the family Salamandridae, there is a wide range of ecological diversity, with salamanders being terrestrial, semi-aquatic, or aquatic as adults. The purpose of this research was to quantify the diverse morphology and suction feeding performance of aquatically feeding salamandrids. We hypothesized that a more robust hyobranchial apparatus morphology would yield increased aquatic feeding performance. When compared to semi-aquatic newts, the fully aquatic species Paramesotriton labiatus had greater mineralization of the hyobranchial apparatus, as well as relatively more narrow basibranchial and wider ceratobranchial I+II complexes. These morphological differences coincide with greater aquatic feeding performance. Kinematics from high-speed videography revealed that maximum mouth opening velocity and acceleration were approximately two and five times greater, respectively, in Paramesotriton, and hyobranchial depression acceleration was found to be approximately three times greater than in the semi-aquatic species Pleurodeles waltl, Notophthalmus viridescens, Triturus dobrogicus, and Cynops cyanurus. Using digital particle image velocimetry, peak and average fluid velocity generated in Paramesotriton during suction feeding events were found to be 0.5ms -1 and 0.2ms -1 , respectively, doubling that of all semi-aquatic species. These findings reveal that specialized morphology increases aquatic feeding performance in a fully aquatic newt. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nathan F Bendik
Full Text Available Despite recognition that nearly one-third of the 6300 amphibian species are threatened with extinction, our understanding of the general ecology and population status of many amphibians is relatively poor. A widely-used method for monitoring amphibians involves injecting captured individuals with unique combinations of colored visible implant elastomer (VIE. We compared VIE identification to a less-invasive method - computer-assisted photographic identification (photoID - in endangered Jollyville Plateau salamanders (Eurycea tonkawae, a species with a known range limited to eight stream drainages in central Texas. We based photoID on the unique pigmentation patterns on the dorsal head region of 1215 individual salamanders using identification software Wild-ID. We compared the performance of photoID methods to VIEs using both 'high-quality' and 'low-quality' images, which were taken using two different camera types and technologies. For high-quality images, the photoID method had a false rejection rate of 0.76% compared to 1.90% for VIEs. Using a comparable dataset of lower-quality images, the false rejection rate was much higher (15.9%. Photo matching scores were negatively correlated with time between captures, suggesting that evolving natural marks could increase misidentification rates in longer term capture-recapture studies. Our study demonstrates the utility of large-scale capture-recapture using photo identification methods for Eurycea and other species with stable natural marks that can be reliably photographed.
Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis
Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…
Bayesian models in cognitive neuroscience: A tutorial
O'Reilly, J.X.; Mars, R.B.
2015-01-01
This chapter provides an introduction to Bayesian models and their application in cognitive neuroscience. The central feature of Bayesian models, as opposed to other classes of models, is that Bayesian models represent the beliefs of an observer as probability distributions, allowing them to
A Bayesian framework for risk perception
van Erp, H.R.N.
2017-01-01
We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy
Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.
Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja
2016-07-19
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using
Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages
Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja
2016-01-01
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences
Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs
Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)
2003-01-01
textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about
Bayesian networks in levee reliability
Roscoe, K.; Hanea, A.
2015-01-01
We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with
Bayesian Classification of Image Structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert
2009-01-01
In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic...... dimensionality. The built classi er is tested on standard and non-standard images...
Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference.
Parr, Thomas; Rees, Geraint; Friston, Karl J
2018-01-01
Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine 'prior' beliefs with a generative (predictive) model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world). This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology - optimal inference with suboptimal priors - and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient's behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.
Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caspar Mathias Goeke
2016-10-01
Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in
Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.
1998-12-01
Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)
Bayesian analysis of rare events
Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.
Bayesian methods for measures of agreement
Broemeling, Lyle D
2009-01-01
Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...
Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for a Decision Support System
Julia Mortera; Paola Vicard; Cecilia Vergari
2012-01-01
We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two rms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent rms potential anti-competitive behaviour. The Antitrust Au- thority's decision process is modelled using a Bayesian network whose relational structure and parameters are estimated from data provided by the Authority itself. Several economic variables in uencing this de- cision process are included in the model. We analyse how monitoring by the Antitrust Auth...
Bayesian Analysis Toolkit: 1.0 and beyond
Beaujean, Frederik; Caldwell, Allen; Greenwald, D.; Kluth, S.; Kröninger, Kevin; Schulz, O.
2015-12-01
The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit is a C++ package centered around Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. It is used in high-energy physics analyses by experimentalists and theorists alike. The software has matured over the last few years. We present new features to enter version 1.0, then summarize some of the software-engineering lessons learned and give an outlook on future versions.
McKenny, H.C.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.
2006-01-01
Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement
Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.
Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen
2014-01-01
This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.
Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks
Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.
2014-06-01
Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...... primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples...
BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir
2011-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.
Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259
Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prosper Harrison B.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello
Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.
Pigmentary system of the adult alpine salamander Salamandra atra atra (Laur., 1768).
Trevisan, P; Pederzoli, A; Barozzi, G
1991-10-01
The pigmentary system of the skin from adult specimens of the black alpine salamander Salamandra atra atra was investigated by light microscope, electron microscope, and biochemical studies. Results were compared with those obtained in previous study of the subspecies Salamandra atra aurorae. Unlike Salamandra atra aurorae, which presents epidermal xanthophores and iridophores, Salamandra atra atra is completely melanized, presenting only epidermal and dermal melanophores. The melanosomes in both the epidermis and the dermis appear to derive from a multivesicular premelanosome similar to that in the goldfish, and the epidermal melanosomes are smaller than those in the dermis. Premelanosomes with an internal lamellar matrix were not observed. The biochemical results have shown that in the ethanol extracts obtained from the skin in toto and from the melanosomes, pteridines and flavins are always present and are the same as those extracted from the black skin areas of Salamandra atra aurorae.
Guex, G D; Chen, P S
1986-12-01
The intrauterine nourishment of the viviparous alpine salamander, Salamandra atra, has been demonstrated to consist of two phases: oophagy - after hatching from the jelly membrane, the developing embryo ingests the remaining disintegrated, unfertilized egg mass. Epitheliophagy - a special cranial portion of the uterus wall, the zona trophica, is stimulated by the presence of the embryo. After the yolk mass has been exhausted, the developing embryo is supplied with epithelial cells as nourishment until the end of pregnancy. The epithelial cells of the zona trophica are released into the uterus lumen by partial necrosis of the underlying connective tissue. Regeneration and detachment of the uterine epithelium occur simultaneously in different regions of the zona trophica. A special dentition enables the embryo, according to its position in the uterus, to feed directly on the zona trophica.
Nakao, Minoru
2015-10-01
The Ezo salamander, Hynobius retardatus, is endemic only to Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan. Gravid flukes of the family Gorgoderidae were discovered from the urinary bladder of H. retardatus. The parasites were identified as a new species named Phyllodistomum kanae sp. nov. In the neighboring Honshu island another bladder fluke, Phyllodistomum patellare, has already been found from the Japanese newt. The new species clearly differs from P. patellare in having a spherical ovary and very weakly lobed testes. The discovery of species of Phyllodistomum from urodelan amphibians is very uncommon in Eurasia. A molecular phylogeny based on 28S ribosomal DNA suggests that sphaeriid bivalves may serve as the first intermediate host for the new species. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai
2015-01-01
are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....
Reliability analysis with Bayesian networks
Zwirglmaier, Kilian Martin
2017-01-01
Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a probabilistic modeling tool with large potential for reliability engineering. While BNs have been successfully applied to reliability engineering, there are remaining issues, some of which are addressed in this work. Firstly a classification of BN elicitation approaches is proposed. Secondly two approximate inference approaches, one of which is based on discretization and the other one on sampling, are proposed. These approaches are applicable to hybrid/con...
Interim Bayesian Persuasion: First Steps
Perez, Eduardo
2015-01-01
This paper makes a first attempt at building a theory of interim Bayesian persuasion. I work in a minimalist model where a low or high type sender seeks validation from a receiver who is willing to validate high types exclusively. After learning her type, the sender chooses a complete conditional information structure for the receiver from a possibly restricted feasible set. I suggest a solution to this game that takes into account the signaling potential of the sender's choice.
Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2002-01-01
. This allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion....... It is shown how half-cell potential measurements may be utilized to update the probability of excessive repair after 50 years....
Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Parr
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine ‘prior’ beliefs with a generative (predictive model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world. This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology – optimal inference with suboptimal priors – and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient’s behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.
Caspers, Barbara A; Junge, Claudia; Weitere, Markus; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2009-06-29
Although some mechanisms of habitat adaptation of conspecific populations have been recently elucidated, the evolution of female preference has rarely been addressed as a force driving habitat adaptation in natural settings. Habitat adaptation of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra), as found in Middle Europe (Germany), can be framed in an explicit phylogeographic framework that allows for the evolution of habitat adaptation between distinct populations to be traced. Typically, females of S. salamandra only deposit their larvae in small permanent streams. However, some populations of the western post-glacial recolonization lineage use small temporary ponds as larval habitats. Pond larvae display several habitat-specific adaptations that are absent in stream-adapted larvae. We conducted mate preference tests with females from three distinct German populations in order to determine the influence of habitat adaptation versus neutral genetic distance on female mate choice. Two populations that we tested belong to the western post-glacial recolonization group, but are adapted to either stream or pond habitats. The third population is adapted to streams but represents the eastern recolonization lineage. Despite large genetic distances with FST values around 0.5, the stream-adapted females preferred males from the same habitat type regardless of genetic distance. Conversely, pond-adapted females did not prefer males from their own population when compared to stream-adapted individuals of either lineage. A comparative analysis of our data showed that habitat adaptation rather than neutral genetic distance correlates with female preference in these salamanders, and that habitat-dependent female preference of a specific pond-reproducing population may have been lost during adaptation to the novel environmental conditions of ponds.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weitere Markus
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Although some mechanisms of habitat adaptation of conspecific populations have been recently elucidated, the evolution of female preference has rarely been addressed as a force driving habitat adaptation in natural settings. Habitat adaptation of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra, as found in Middle Europe (Germany, can be framed in an explicit phylogeographic framework that allows for the evolution of habitat adaptation between distinct populations to be traced. Typically, females of S. salamandra only deposit their larvae in small permanent streams. However, some populations of the western post-glacial recolonization lineage use small temporary ponds as larval habitats. Pond larvae display several habitat-specific adaptations that are absent in stream-adapted larvae. We conducted mate preference tests with females from three distinct German populations in order to determine the influence of habitat adaptation versus neutral genetic distance on female mate choice. Two populations that we tested belong to the western post-glacial recolonization group, but are adapted to either stream or pond habitats. The third population is adapted to streams but represents the eastern recolonization lineage. Results Despite large genetic distances with FST values around 0.5, the stream-adapted females preferred males from the same habitat type regardless of genetic distance. Conversely, pond-adapted females did not prefer males from their own population when compared to stream-adapted individuals of either lineage. Conclusion A comparative analysis of our data showed that habitat adaptation rather than neutral genetic distance correlates with female preference in these salamanders, and that habitat-dependent female preference of a specific pond-reproducing population may have been lost during adaptation to the novel environmental conditions of ponds.
Caspers, Barbara A; Junge, Claudia; Weitere, Markus; Steinfartz, Sebastian
2009-01-01
Background Although some mechanisms of habitat adaptation of conspecific populations have been recently elucidated, the evolution of female preference has rarely been addressed as a force driving habitat adaptation in natural settings. Habitat adaptation of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra), as found in Middle Europe (Germany), can be framed in an explicit phylogeographic framework that allows for the evolution of habitat adaptation between distinct populations to be traced. Typically, females of S. salamandra only deposit their larvae in small permanent streams. However, some populations of the western post-glacial recolonization lineage use small temporary ponds as larval habitats. Pond larvae display several habitat-specific adaptations that are absent in stream-adapted larvae. We conducted mate preference tests with females from three distinct German populations in order to determine the influence of habitat adaptation versus neutral genetic distance on female mate choice. Two populations that we tested belong to the western post-glacial recolonization group, but are adapted to either stream or pond habitats. The third population is adapted to streams but represents the eastern recolonization lineage. Results Despite large genetic distances with FST values around 0.5, the stream-adapted females preferred males from the same habitat type regardless of genetic distance. Conversely, pond-adapted females did not prefer males from their own population when compared to stream-adapted individuals of either lineage. Conclusion A comparative analysis of our data showed that habitat adaptation rather than neutral genetic distance correlates with female preference in these salamanders, and that habitat-dependent female preference of a specific pond-reproducing population may have been lost during adaptation to the novel environmental conditions of ponds. PMID:19563652
Uchiyama, Minoru; Kumano, Tomoko; Komiyama, Makiko; Yoshizawa, Hideki; Matsuda, Kouhei
2011-08-01
In this cytological and immunohistological study, we clarified the localization of the membrane transporters Na(+) , K(+) -ATPase (NKA), vacuolar-type H(+) -ATPase (VHA), and epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) and distinguished ionocyte subtypes in the gill of the Japanese salamander (Hynobius nigrescens). In larvae (IY stages 43-65), NKA immunoreactivity was observed on the basolateral plasma membrane in more than 60% cells and less than 20% cells in the primary filaments and secondary lamellae of the external gills, respectively. VHA immunoreactivity was observed on the apical membrane of some epithelial cells in the secondary lamellae of the external gills. High ENaCα immunoreactivity was widely observed on the apical cell membrane of a population of squamous cells, presumably pavement cells (PVCs), and mitochondria-rich cells (MRCs), in the primary filaments and secondary lamellae of the external gills. Using double immunofluorescence microscopy, epithelial cell types involved in ionic regulation were characterized and divided into three ionocyte types: NKA-, NKA- and ENaC-, and VHA-positive cells. VHA-immunoreactive cells as well as NKA-positive cells were observed during IY stages 43-65 of the salamander larvae. During late stages of metamorphosis, NKA, VHA, and ENaCα immunoreactivities in the external gills decreased and finally disappeared during the completion of metamorphosis (IY stage 68). PVCs and MRCs in the external gills are probably involved in acid-base balance regulation and osmoregulation in urodele amphibian larvae. The results are discussed in relation to the ionocytes previously reported in fish gills and the frog skin epithelium. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics
Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo
2015-01-01
Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan
2004-01-01
We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...
Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains
Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.
2012-01-01
Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential ex...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert William Rankin
2016-03-01
Full Text Available We present a Hierarchical Bayesian version of Pollock's Closed Robust Design for studying the survival, temporary-migration, and abundance of marked animals. Through simulations and analyses of a bottlenose dolphin photo-identification dataset, we compare several estimation frameworks, including Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML, model-averaging by AICc, as well as Bayesian and Hierarchical Bayesian (HB procedures. Our results demonstrate a number of advantages of the Bayesian framework over other popular methods. First, for simple fixed-effect models, we show the near-equivalence of Bayesian and ML point-estimates and confidence/credibility intervals. Second, we demonstrate how there is an inherent correlation among temporary-migration and survival parameter estimates in the PCRD, and while this can lead to serious convergence issues and singularities among MLEs, we show that the Bayesian estimates were more reliable. Third, we demonstrate that a Hierarchical Bayesian model with carefully thought-out hyperpriors, can lead to similar parameter estimates and conclusions as multi-model inference by AICc model-averaging. This latter point is especially interesting for mark-recapture practitioners, for whom model-uncertainty and multi-model inference have become a major preoccupation. Lastly, we extend the Hierarchical Bayesian PCRD to include full-capture histories (i.e., by modelling a recruitment process and individual-level heterogeneity in detection probabilities, which can have important consequences for the range of phenomena studied by the PCRD, as well as lead to large differences in abundance estimates. For example, we estimate 8%-24% more bottlenose dolphins in the western gulf of Shark Bay than previously estimated by ML and AICc-based model-averaging. Other important extensions are discussed. Our Bayesian PCRD models are written in the BUGS-like JAGS language for easy dissemination and customization by the community of capture
Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders Læsø; Lund, Mogens
. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....
García-París, M; Alcobendas, M; Buckley, D; Wake, D B
2003-01-01
We used partial sequences of the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) gene, obtained from 76 individuals representing 45 populations of Iberian Salamandra salamandra plus 15 sequences of additional species of Salamandra and related genera, to investigate contact zones. These zones, identified by earlier allozymic and morphological analyses, are between populations of viviparous (S. s. bernardezi and S. s. fastuosa) and ovoviviparous (S. s. gallaica and S. s. terrestris) salamanders. The distribution of mtDNA and nuclear markers is mostly concordant at one contact zone (between S. s. gallaica and S. s. bernardezi), but at another (between S. s. fastuosa and S. s. terrestris) the markers are offset by about 250 km. The observed geographic variation fits a model of mtDNA capture. Among the potential mechanisms responsible for such discordance we favor a combination of range shifts due to climatic fluctuations and biased genetic admixture across moving contact zones. We apply our findings to the issue of possible homoplasy in the evolution of viviparity and conclude that viviparity likely arose only once within S. salamandra.
3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra
2017-01-01
This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).
Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard
This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....
Schindelmeiser, J; Schindelmeiser, I; Greven, H
1983-01-01
The hepatic arginase activity of Salamandra salamandra was determined at three different stages of intra- and extrauterine larval development and at fully metamorphosed juveniles. The highest enzymatic activity was found in intrauterine larvae in November, the lowest in intrauterine larvae in June of the following year. These data can be correlated with the ureotelism of intrauterine larvae previously described and are discussed with respect to the metabolism of larval and juvenile fire salamanders.
Gandhi, Jaina S; Cecala, Kristen K
2016-09-01
The objective of the present study was to evaluate the potential interactive effects of stream temperatures and environmentally relevant glyphosate-based herbicide concentrations on movement and antipredator behaviors of larval Eurycea wilderae (Blue Ridge two-lined salamander). Larval salamanders were exposed to 1 of 4 environmentally relevant glyphosate concentrations (0.00 µg acid equivalent [a.e.]/L, 0.73 µg a.e./L, 1.46 µg a.e./L, and 2.92 µg a.e./L) at either ambient (12 °C) or elevated (23 °C) water temperature. Behaviors observed included the exploration of a novel habitat, use of refuge, habitat selection relative to a potential predator, and burst movement distance. In the absence of glyphosate, temperature consistently affected movement and refuge-use behavior, with individuals moving longer distances more frequently and using refuge less at warm temperatures; however, when glyphosate was added, the authors observed inconsistent effects of temperature that may have resulted from differential toxicity at various temperatures. Larval salamanders made shorter, more frequent movements and demonstrated reduced burst distance at higher glyphosate concentrations. The authors also found that lower glyphosate concentrations sometimes had stronger effects than higher concentrations (i.e., nonmonotonic dose responses), suggesting that standard safety tests conducted only at higher glyphosate concentrations might overlook important sublethal effects on salamander behavior. These data demonstrate that sublethal effects of glyphosate-based herbicides on natural behaviors of amphibians can occur with short-term exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2297-2303. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.
Bayesian experts in exploring reaction kinetics of transcription circuits.
Yoshida, Ryo; Saito, Masaya M; Nagao, Hiromichi; Higuchi, Tomoyuki
2010-09-15
Biochemical reactions in cells are made of several types of biological circuits. In current systems biology, making differential equation (DE) models simulatable in silico has been an appealing, general approach to uncover a complex world of biochemical reaction dynamics. Despite of a need for simulation-aided studies, our research field has yet provided no clear answers: how to specify kinetic values in models that are difficult to measure from experimental/theoretical analyses on biochemical kinetics. We present a novel non-parametric Bayesian approach to this problem. The key idea lies in the development of a Dirichlet process (DP) prior distribution, called Bayesian experts, which reflects substantive knowledge on reaction mechanisms inherent in given models and experimentally observable kinetic evidences to the subsequent parameter search. The DP prior identifies significant local regions of unknown parameter space before proceeding to the posterior analyses. This article reports that a Bayesian expert-inducing stochastic search can effectively explore unknown parameters of in silico transcription circuits such that solutions of DEs reproduce transcriptomic time course profiles. A sample source code is available at the URL http://daweb.ism.ac.jp/~yoshidar/lisdas/.
Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Judith L. Anderson
1998-06-01
Full Text Available Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability". I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research in cognitive psychology showing that simple tactics of communication, suggested by an evolutionary perspective on human cognition, help people to process uncertain information more effectively as they read and talk about probabilities. In addition, I suggest that carefully considered standards for methodology and conventions for presentation may also make Bayesian analyses easier to understand.
Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Stegen, Gwij; Bogaerts, Sergé; Canessa, Stefano; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Janssen, Nico; Bosman, Wilbert; Pasmans, Frank; Martel, An
2018-02-28
Lack of disease spill-over between adjacent populations has been associated with habitat fragmentation and the absence of population connectivity. We here present a case which describes the absence of the spill-over of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) between two connected subpopulations of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra). Based on neutrally evolving microsatellite loci, both subpopulations were shown to form a single genetic cluster, suggesting a shared origin and/or recent gene flow. Alpine newts (Ichthyosaura alpestris) and fire salamanders were found in the landscape matrix between the two sites, which are also connected by a stream and separated by no obvious physical barriers. Performing a laboratory trial using alpine newts, we confirmed that Bsal is unable to disperse autonomously. Vector-mediated dispersal may have been impeded by a combination of sub-optimal connectivity, limited dispersal ability of infected hosts and a lack of suitable dispersers following the rapid, Bsal-driven collapse of susceptible hosts at the source site. Although the exact cause remains unclear, the aggregate evidence suggests that Bsal may be a poorer disperser than previously hypothesized. The lack of Bsal dispersal between neighbouring salamander populations opens perspectives for disease management and stresses the necessity of implementing biosecurity measures preventing human-mediated spread.
Jasiński, A; Miodoński, A
1979-01-01
The mucosa of the spotted salamander tongue and its taste organs were investigated by means of light and scanning electron microscopy. The most striking feature of the salamander tongue is an almost complete lack of papillae which are replaced by long, radially disposed folds with linear arrays of taste organs along their ridges. In respect of morphology, the taste organs of the salamander occupy an intermediate position between the taste buds of Urodela and taste discs of Salientia. Scanning electron microscopic examination of microcorrosion casts of the blood vessels of the tongue has revealed that the structure of subepidermal capillary network reflects the topography of the tongue surface and the distribution of its taste organs. In the core regions of the folds the capillary loops accompanying gustatory receptors empty via their shorter, descending arms into the draining vessels, the initial segments of which retain a course parallel to that of the folds. In the few fungiform papillae the capillary vessels form single loops whose distal ends come to lie in the vicinity of taste discs.
Sanchez, Eugenia; Bletz, Molly C; Duntsch, Laura; Bhuju, Sabin; Geffers, Robert; Jarek, Michael; Dohrmann, Anja B; Tebbe, Christoph C; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Vences, Miguel
2017-02-01
Amphibian skin provides a habitat for bacterial communities in its mucus. Understanding the structure and function of this "mucosome" in the European fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) is critical in the context of novel emerging pathogenic diseases. We compare the cutaneous bacterial communities of this species using amplicon-based sequencing of the 16S rRNA V4 region. Across 290 samples, over 4000 OTUs were identified, four of them consistently present in all samples. Larvae and post-metamorphs exhibited distinct cutaneous microbial communities. In adults, the parotoid gland surface had a community structure different from the head, dorsum, flanks and ventral side. Larvae from streams had higher phylogenetic diversity than those found in ponds. Their bacterial community structure also differed; species of Burkholderiaceae, Comamonadaceae, Methylophilaceae and Sphingomonadaceae were more abundant in pond larvae, possibly related to differences in factors like desiccation and decomposition rate in this environment. The observed differences in the cutaneous bacterial community among stages, body parts and habitats of fire salamanders suggest that both host and external factors shape these microbiota. We hypothesize that the variation in cutaneous bacterial communities might contribute to variation in pathogen susceptibility among individual salamanders.
Darda, David M.; Wake, David B.
2015-01-01
Osteological variation is recorded among and within four of the most distinctive species of the Mexican salamander genus Chiropterotriton. Analysis of the data is consistent with the monophyletic status of the genus and documents previously unrecorded intraspecific and interspecific variation. Most of the recorded variation involves qualitative and quantitative proportional differences, but four fixed differences constitute autapomorphic states that affirm and diagnose some species (C. dimidiatus, C. magnipes). Osteological variation in 15 characters is analyzed with respect to predictions generated from four hypotheses: 1) phylogeny, 2) adaptation to specific habitats (the four species include cave-dwelling, terrestrial, and arboreal forms), 3) size-free shape, and 4) size. High levels of intraspecific variation suggest that the characters studied are not subject to rigid functional constraints in salamanders, regardless of size. The pattern predicted by the hypothesis based on size differences seen among these four Chiropterotriton species matches most closely the observed pattern of relative skull robustness. Since size change and heterochrony are often associated in plethodontid evolution, it is likely that changes in developmental timing play a role in the morphological transitions among these morphologically diverse taxa. Webbed feet, miniaturization, body shape, and an unusual tarsal arrangement are morphologies exhibited in species of Chiropterotrition that are shown to be homoplastic with other clades of tropical plethodontids. Although extensive homoplasy in salamanders might be seen as a roadblock to unraveling phylogenetic hypotheses, the homologous developmental systems that appear to underlie such homoplasy may reveal common and consistent evolutionary processes at work. PMID:26060996
Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review
Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin
2017-08-01
Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
2013-01-01
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Attention in a bayesian framework
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh
2012-01-01
, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey "prior" information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fuma, Shoichi; Une, Yumi; Ihara, Sadao; Matsui, Kumi; Kudo, Tomoo; Tokiwa, Toshihiro; Kubota, Yoshihisa; Soeda, Haruhi; Ishikawa, Takahiro; Doi, Kazutaka; Watanabe, Yoshito; Yoshida, Satoshi
2014-01-01
The Tohoku hynobiid salamanders, Hynobius lichenatus, were chronically irradiated with γ-rays from embryonic to juvenile stages for 450 days. At 490 μGy h −1 or lower dose rates, growth and survival were not significantly affected by irradiation, and any morphological aberrations and histological damages were not observed. At 4600 μGy h −1 , growth was severely inhibited, and all the individuals died mostly at the juvenile stage. Chronic LD 50 was 42 Gy as a total dose. In the liver, the number of hematopoietic cells was significantly reduced in the living juveniles, and these cells disappeared in the dead juveniles. In the spleen, mature lymphocytes were depleted in the living larvae, and almost all the heamtopoietic cells disappeared in the dead juveniles. These results suggest that this salamander died due to acute radiation syndrome, i.e., hematopoietic damage and subsequent sepsis caused by immune depression. The death would be also attributed to skin damage inducing infection. At 18,000 μGy h −1 , morphological aberrations and severe growth inhibition were observed. All the individuals died at the larval stage due to a multiple organ failure. Chronic LD 50 was 28 Gy as a total dose. Assuming that chronic LD 50 was 42 Gy at lower dose rates than 4600 μGy h −1 , a chronic median lethal dose rate could be estimated to be <340 μGy h −1 for the whole life (>14 years). These results suggest that, among guidance dose rates, i.e., 4–400 μGy h −1 , proposed by various organisations and research programmes for protection of amphibians and taxonomic groups or ecosystems including amphibians, most of them would protect this salamander but the highest value may not on the whole life scale. - Highlights: • The salamanders, Hynobius lichenatus, were chronically γ-irradiated for 450 days. • At 490 μGy h −1 or lower, irradiation did not significantly affect growth and survival. • All the individuals died at 4600 or 18,000 μGy h −1 . • A
Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Abstract. In this work, robust Bayesian estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution is proposed. The methodology is presented in terms of oscillation of posterior risks of the Bayesian estimators. By using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we show that, under a suitable generalized loss function, we can obtain a robust ...
Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering
Chen, Mo
2011-01-01
In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…
Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.
J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma
2006-01-01
Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...
Calibration in a Bayesian modelling framework
Jansen, M.J.W.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.
2004-01-01
Bayesian statistics may constitute the core of a consistent and comprehensive framework for the statistical aspects of modelling complex processes that involve many parameters whose values are derived from many sources. Bayesian statistics holds great promises for model calibration, provides the
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach
Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.; Collaboration, ALICE
2016-01-01
We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian
Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking
Zajdel, W.P.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Blockeel, H.; Denecker, M.
2002-01-01
For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a
Bayesian learning theory applied to human cognition.
Jacobs, Robert A; Kruschke, John K
2011-01-01
Probabilistic models based on Bayes' rule are an increasingly popular approach to understanding human cognition. Bayesian models allow immense representational latitude and complexity. Because they use normative Bayesian mathematics to process those representations, they define optimal performance on a given task. This article focuses on key mechanisms of Bayesian information processing, and provides numerous examples illustrating Bayesian approaches to the study of human cognition. We start by providing an overview of Bayesian modeling and Bayesian networks. We then describe three types of information processing operations-inference, parameter learning, and structure learning-in both Bayesian networks and human cognition. This is followed by a discussion of the important roles of prior knowledge and of active learning. We conclude by outlining some challenges for Bayesian models of human cognition that will need to be addressed by future research. WIREs Cogn Sci 2011 2 8-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.80 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model
van de Sande, Brett
2013-01-01
Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…
Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner
2003-01-01
and secondly, to gain efficiency during modification of an object oriented Bayesian network. To accomplish these two goals we have exploited a mechanism allowing local triangulation of instances to develop a method for updating the junction trees associated with object oriented Bayesian networks in highly...
Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment
Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra
2013-01-01
In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…
Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks
Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego
2007-01-01
This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…
Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models.
Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Pyper, Cecilia
2012-12-01
Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple's biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.
Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.
Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen
2016-01-01
Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.
BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.
Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J
2011-03-01
The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.
2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra
2015-01-01
The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...
Crystal structure prediction accelerated by Bayesian optimization
Yamashita, Tomoki; Sato, Nobuya; Kino, Hiori; Miyake, Takashi; Tsuda, Koji; Oguchi, Tamio
2018-01-01
We propose a crystal structure prediction method based on Bayesian optimization. Our method is classified as a selection-type algorithm which is different from evolution-type algorithms such as an evolutionary algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Crystal structure prediction with Bayesian optimization can efficiently select the most stable structure from a large number of candidate structures with a lower number of searching trials using a machine learning technique. Crystal structure prediction using Bayesian optimization combined with random search is applied to known systems such as NaCl and Y2Co17 to discuss the efficiency of Bayesian optimization. These results demonstrate that Bayesian optimization can significantly reduce the number of searching trials required to find the global minimum structure by 30-40% in comparison with pure random search, which leads to much less computational cost.
parallelMCMCcombine: an R package for bayesian methods for big data and analytics.
Miroshnikov, Alexey; Conlon, Erin M
2014-01-01
Recent advances in big data and analytics research have provided a wealth of large data sets that are too big to be analyzed in their entirety, due to restrictions on computer memory or storage size. New Bayesian methods have been developed for data sets that are large only due to large sample sizes. These methods partition big data sets into subsets and perform independent Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analyses on the subsets. The methods then combine the independent subset posterior samples to estimate a posterior density given the full data set. These approaches were shown to be effective for Bayesian models including logistic regression models, Gaussian mixture models and hierarchical models. Here, we introduce the R package parallelMCMCcombine which carries out four of these techniques for combining independent subset posterior samples. We illustrate each of the methods using a Bayesian logistic regression model for simulation data and a Bayesian Gamma model for real data; we also demonstrate features and capabilities of the R package. The package assumes the user has carried out the Bayesian analysis and has produced the independent subposterior samples outside of the package. The methods are primarily suited to models with unknown parameters of fixed dimension that exist in continuous parameter spaces. We envision this tool will allow researchers to explore the various methods for their specific applications and will assist future progress in this rapidly developing field.
Bayesian power spectrum inference with foreground and target contamination treatment
Jasche, J.; Lavaux, G.
2017-10-01
This work presents a joint and self-consistent Bayesian treatment of various foreground and target contaminations when inferring cosmological power spectra and three-dimensional density fields from galaxy redshift surveys. This is achieved by introducing additional block-sampling procedures for unknown coefficients of foreground and target contamination templates to the previously presented ARES framework for Bayesian large-scale structure analyses. As a result, the method infers jointly and fully self-consistently three-dimensional density fields, cosmological power spectra, luminosity-dependent galaxy biases, noise levels of the respective galaxy distributions, and coefficients for a set of a priori specified foreground templates. In addition, this fully Bayesian approach permits detailed quantification of correlated uncertainties amongst all inferred quantities and correctly marginalizes over observational systematic effects. We demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our approach in obtaining unbiased estimates of power spectra via applications to realistic mock galaxy observations that are subject to stellar contamination and dust extinction. While simultaneously accounting for galaxy biases and unknown noise levels, our method reliably and robustly infers three-dimensional density fields and corresponding cosmological power spectra from deep galaxy surveys. Furthermore, our approach correctly accounts for joint and correlated uncertainties between unknown coefficients of foreground templates and the amplitudes of the power spectrum. This effect amounts to correlations and anti-correlations of up to 10 per cent across wide ranges in Fourier space.
Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.
Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J
2016-01-01
The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.
Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.
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Kerrie L Mengersen
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL, and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.
A Bayesian foundation for individual learning under uncertainty
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Christoph eMathys
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Computational learning models are critical for understanding mechanisms of adaptive behavior. However, the two major current frameworks, reinforcement learning (RL and Bayesian learning, both have certain limitations. For example, many Bayesian models are agnostic of inter-individual variability and involve complicated integrals, making online learning difficult. Here, we introduce a generic hierarchical Bayesian framework for individual learning under multiple forms of uncertainty (e.g., environmental volatility and perceptual uncertainty. The model assumes Gaussian random walks of states at all but the first level, with the step size determined by the next higher level. The coupling between levels is controlled by parameters that shape the influence of uncertainty on learning in a subject-specific fashion. Using variational Bayes under a mean field approximation and a novel approximation to the posterior energy function, we derive trial-by-trial update equations which (i are analytical and extremely efficient, enabling real-time learning, (ii have a natural interpretation in terms of RL, and (iii contain parameters representing processes which play a key role in current theories of learning, e.g., precision-weighting of prediction error. These parameters allow for the expression of individual differences in learning and may relate to specific neuromodulatory mechanisms in the brain. Our model is very general: it can deal with both discrete and continuous states and equally accounts for deterministic and probabilistic relations between environmental events and perceptual states (i.e., situations with and without perceptual uncertainty. These properties are illustrated by simulations and analyses of empirical time series. Overall, our framework provides a novel foundation for understanding normal and pathological learning that contextualizes RL within a generic Bayesian scheme and thus connects it to principles of optimality from probability
A bayesian foundation for individual learning under uncertainty.
Mathys, Christoph; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E
2011-01-01
Computational learning models are critical for understanding mechanisms of adaptive behavior. However, the two major current frameworks, reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian learning, both have certain limitations. For example, many Bayesian models are agnostic of inter-individual variability and involve complicated integrals, making online learning difficult. Here, we introduce a generic hierarchical Bayesian framework for individual learning under multiple forms of uncertainty (e.g., environmental volatility and perceptual uncertainty). The model assumes Gaussian random walks of states at all but the first level, with the step size determined by the next highest level. The coupling between levels is controlled by parameters that shape the influence of uncertainty on learning in a subject-specific fashion. Using variational Bayes under a mean-field approximation and a novel approximation to the posterior energy function, we derive trial-by-trial update equations which (i) are analytical and extremely efficient, enabling real-time learning, (ii) have a natural interpretation in terms of RL, and (iii) contain parameters representing processes which play a key role in current theories of learning, e.g., precision-weighting of prediction error. These parameters allow for the expression of individual differences in learning and may relate to specific neuromodulatory mechanisms in the brain. Our model is very general: it can deal with both discrete and continuous states and equally accounts for deterministic and probabilistic relations between environmental events and perceptual states (i.e., situations with and without perceptual uncertainty). These properties are illustrated by simulations and analyses of empirical time series. Overall, our framework provides a novel foundation for understanding normal and pathological learning that contextualizes RL within a generic Bayesian scheme and thus connects it to principles of optimality from probability theory.
No Sexual Dimorphism Detected in Digit Ratios of the Fire Salamander (Salamandra salamandra).
Balogová, Monika; Nelson, Emma; Uhrin, Marcel; Figurová, Mária; Ledecký, Valent; Zyśk, Bartłomiej
2015-10-01
It has been proposed that digit ratio may be used as a biomarker of early developmental effects. Specifically, the second-to-fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) has been linked to the effects of sex hormones and their receptor genes, but other digit ratios have also been investigated. Across taxa, patterns of sexual dimorphism in digit ratios are ambiguous and a scarcity of studies in basal tetrapods makes it difficult to understand how ratios have evolved. Here, we focus on examining sex differences in digit ratios (2D:3D, 2D:4D, and 3D:4D) in a common amphibian, the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra). We used graphic software to measure soft tissue digit length and digit bone length from X-rays. We found a nonsignificant tendency in males to have a lower 2D:3D than females; however, no sexual differences were detected in the other ratios. We discuss our results in the context of other studies of digit ratios, and how sex determination systems, as well as other factors, might impact patterns of sexual dimorphism, particularly in reptiles and in amphibians. Our findings suggest that caution is needed when using digit ratios as a potential indicator of prenatal hormonal effects in amphibians and highlight the need for more comparative studies to elucidate the evolutionary and genetic mechanisms implicated in sexually dimorphic patterns across taxonomic groups. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Differential growth identified in salamander larvae half-sib cohorts: survival strategy?
Cohen, Miriam; Yeheskely-Hayon, Daniella; Warburg, Michael R; Davidson, Dana; Halevi, Gili; Sharon, Rakefet
2006-10-01
In this study we describe the growth of several different larval cohorts (i.e. half-siblings of the same mother born on the same day) of a rare, xeric-adapted salamander Salamandra s. infraimmaculata Martens, 1885, under constant density and food conditions from birth to metamorphosis. The larvae spend the critical first phase of their lives in water, mostly in temporary ponds. Age and weight at metamorphosis were highly affected by varying food conditions. We have identified six different growth modes that these larvae use, both fast growing and slow growing. Each larval cohort was found to use 2-4 different such growth modes regardless of their initial weight. Fast growing modes (I-III) will enable larvae to survive dry years, and metamorphose bigger. Slow growing modes (IV-VI), used by 8% of the larval population, will enable survival only in rainy years. These last growth modes effect differential temporal dispersal in wet years by delaying the emergence of postmetamorphs onto land. Distribution of growth modes in the larval population is affected by food but not by density conditions. Late-born, fast-growing larvae will have an advantage in dry years being able to metamorphose and disperse, whereas the slow-growing larvae will survive only in wet years.
Wetland and microhabitat use by nesting four-toed salamanders in Maine
Chalmers, R.J.; Loftin, C.S.
2006-01-01
Little is known of Four-Toed Salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) habitat use, despite the species' extensive range and elevated conservation status. We investigated species-habitat relationships that predict H. scutatum nesting presence in Maine at wetland and microhabitat scales by comparing microhabitats with and without nests. We created logistic regression models, selected models with AIC, and evaluated models with reserve data. Wetlands with nests were best predicted by shoreline microhabitat of Sphagnum spp., wood substrate, water flow, blue-joint reed grass (Calamagrostis canadensis), meadowsweet (Spiraea alba), steeplebush (Spiraea tomentosa), sensitive fern (Onoclea sensibilis), and absence of sheep laurel (Kalmia angustifolia) or deciduous forest canopy. Within occupied wetlands, shoreline microhabitat where nests occurred was best distinguished from available, unoccupied shoreline microhabitat by steeper shore, greater near-shore and basin water depth, deeper nesting vegetation, presence of moss spp. and winterberry (Ilex verticillata), and a negative association with S. alba, leatherleaf (Chamaedaphne calyculata), and K. angustifolia. These models of wetland and microhabitat use by H. scutatum may assist ecologists and managers in detecting and conserving this species. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.
Genetic drift and rapid evolution of viviparity in insular fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra).
Velo-Antón, G; Zamudio, K R; Cordero-Rivera, A
2012-04-01
Continental islands offer an excellent opportunity to investigate adaptive processes and to time microevolutionary changes that precede macroevolutionary events. We performed a population genetic study of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), a species that displays unique intraspecific diversity of reproductive strategies, to address the microevolutionary processes leading to phenotypic and genetic differentiation of island, coastal and interior populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure and demographic parameters in viviparous insular populations and ovoviviparous coastal and interior populations. Our results show considerable genetic differentiation (F(ST) range: 0.06-0.27), and no clear signs of gene flow among populations, except between the large and admixed interior populations. We find no support for island colonization by rafting or intentional/accidental anthropogenic introductions, indicating that rising sea levels were responsible for isolation of the island populations approximately 9000 years ago. Our study provides evidence of rapid genetic differentiation between island and coastal populations, and rapid evolution of viviparity driven by climatic selective pressures on island populations, geographic isolation with genetic drift, or a combination of these factors. Studies of these viviparous island populations in early stages of divergence help us better understand the microevolutionary processes involved in rapid phenotypic shifts.
Temporal response of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum to 3,000 years of climatic variation
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Long Webb
2005-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Amphibians are sensitive indicators of environmental conditions and show measurable responses, such as changes in phenology, abundance and range limits to local changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. Amphibians offer unique opportunities to study the important ecological and evolutionary implications of responses in life history characteristics to climatic change. We analyzed a late-Holocene fossil record of the Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum for evidence of population-level changes in body size and paedomorphosis to climatic change over the last 3000 years. Results We found a significant difference in body size index between paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals during the time interval dominated by the Medieval Warm Period. There is a consistent ratio of paedomorphic to metamorphic specimens through the entire 3000 years, demonstrating that not all life history characteristics of the population were significantly altered by changes in climate on this timescale. Conclusion The fossil record of Ambystoma tigrinum we used spans an ecologically relevant timescale appropriate for understanding population and community response to projected climatic change. The population-level responses we documented are concordant with expectations based on modern environmental studies, and yield insight into population-level patterns across hundreds of generations, especially the independence of different life history characteristics. These conclusions lead us to offer general predictions about the future response of this species based on likely scenarios of climatic warming in the Rocky Mountain region.
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Feldhoff Pamela W
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The mental gland pheromone of male Plethodon salamanders contains two main protein components: a 22 kDa protein named Plethodon Receptivity Factor (PRF and a 7 kDa protein named Plethodon Modulating Factor (PMF, respectively. Each protein component individually has opposing effects on female courtship behavior, with PRF shortening and PMF lengthening courtship. In this study, we test the hypothesis that PRF or PMF individually activate vomeronasal neurons. The agmatine-uptake technique was used to visualize chemosensory neurons that were activated by each protein component individually. Results Vomeronasal neurons exposed to agmatine in saline did not demonstrate significant labeling. However, a population of vomeronasal neurons was labeled following exposure to either PRF or PMF. When expressed as a percent of control level labeled cells, PRF labeled more neurons than did PMF. These percentages for PRF and PMF, added together, parallel the percentage of labeled vomeronasal neurons when females are exposed to the whole pheromone. Conclusion This study suggests that two specific populations of female vomeronasal neurons are responsible for responding to each of the two components of the male pheromone mixture. These two neural populations, therefore, could express different receptors which, in turn, transmit different information to the brain, thus accounting for the different female behavior elicited by each pheromone component.
Temporal response of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) to 3,000 years of climatic variation.
Bruzgul, Judsen E; Long, Webb; Hadly, Elizabeth A
2005-09-13
Amphibians are sensitive indicators of environmental conditions and show measurable responses, such as changes in phenology, abundance and range limits to local changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. Amphibians offer unique opportunities to study the important ecological and evolutionary implications of responses in life history characteristics to climatic change. We analyzed a late-Holocene fossil record of the Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) for evidence of population-level changes in body size and paedomorphosis to climatic change over the last 3000 years. We found a significant difference in body size index between paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals during the time interval dominated by the Medieval Warm Period. There is a consistent ratio of paedomorphic to metamorphic specimens through the entire 3000 years, demonstrating that not all life history characteristics of the population were significantly altered by changes in climate on this timescale. The fossil record of Ambystoma tigrinum we used spans an ecologically relevant timescale appropriate for understanding population and community response to projected climatic change. The population-level responses we documented are concordant with expectations based on modern environmental studies, and yield insight into population-level patterns across hundreds of generations, especially the independence of different life history characteristics. These conclusions lead us to offer general predictions about the future response of this species based on likely scenarios of climatic warming in the Rocky Mountain region.
Mali, Lilijana Bizjak; Bulog, Boris
2010-10-01
Oogenesis in the neotenic, cave dwelling salamander Proteus anguinus anguinus has not been studied yet, and this study provides a detailed description of the early growth of the oocytes. Early previtellogene oocytes ranging from 100 to 600 µm in diameter were examined by light and transmission electron microscopy. The oocytes were divided into two stages based on size, color, and histology. Stage I oocytes can be identified by their transparent cytoplasm and a homogenous juxtanuclear mass, composed of numerous lipid droplets and mitochondria. Stage II oocytes are no longer transparent and have increased in diameter to 300- 600 µm, and many cortical alveoli differing in size have appeared. The common and most predominant ultrastructural characteristics of both stages of previtellogene oocytes are extensive quantities of smooth membrane, numerous mitochondria, and lipid droplets, as well as abundant free ribosomes. Myeline-like structures and remarkable annulate lamellae of closely packed membrane stacks are also frequently observed. Previtellogenic oocytes are the most predominant oocytes in the ovaries of Proteus, and while they possess certain structural characteristics typical for other amphibians, some features are unique and could result from adaptation to the subterranean environment.
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Pascale Van Rooij
Full Text Available The recently emerged chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal causes European salamander declines. Proper hygiene protocols including disinfection procedures are crucial to prevent disease transmission. Here, the efficacy of chemical disinfectants in killing Bsal was evaluated. At all tested conditions, Biocidal®, Chloramine-T®, Dettol medical®, Disolol®, ethanol, F10®, Hibiscrub®, potassium permanganate, Safe4®, sodium hypochlorite, and Virkon S®, were effective at killing Bsal. Concentrations of 5% sodium chloride or lower, 0.01% peracetic acid and 0.001-1% copper sulphate were inactive against Bsal. None of the conditions tested for hydrogen peroxide affected Bsal viability, while it did kill Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. For Bsal, enzymatic breakdown of hydrogen peroxide by catalases and specific morphological features (clustering of sporangia, development of new sporangia within the original sporangium, were identified as fungal factors altering susceptibility to several of the disinfectants tested. Based on the in vitro results we recommend 1% Virkon S®, 4% sodium hypochlorite and 70% ethanol for disinfecting equipment in the field, lab or captive setting, with a minimal contact time of 5 minutes for 1% Virkon S® and 1 minute for the latter disinfectants. These conditions not only efficiently target Bsal, but also Bd and Ranavirus.
Extinction debt as a driver of amphibian declines: An example with imperiled flatwoods salamanders
Semiltsch, Raymond D; Walls, Susan; Barichivich, William J.; O'Donnell, Katherine
2017-01-01
A comprehensive view of population declines and their underlying causes is necessary to reverse species loss. Historically, in many cases, a narrow view may have allowed species declines to continue, virtually undetected, for long periods of time (perhaps even decades). We suggest that extinction debt is likely responsible for numerous (perhaps most) amphibian declines and that this perspective should be incorporated into the structure of amphibian research and management. Extinction debt, originally proposed to explain changes in species richness following environmental disturbance, also may refer to the proportion of populations of an individual species that is expected to eventually be lost because of habitat change. A conservation framework to address extinction debt focuses research on threats at the individual, population, and metapopulation levels. This approach will help enhance, restore, and protect specific processes and habitats at the proper scale by directing management to the most vulnerable level and stage of a species. We illustrate this approach using Flatwoods Salamanders, Ambystoma cingulatumand Ambystoma bishopi, which occurred historically throughout the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States but have experienced a greater than 85% loss of populations in recent years. Reversal of these losses is possible only if conservation and recovery efforts encompass individual, population, and metapopulation levels. We illustrate our framework by outlining actions that could be taken at each of these levels to help guide conservation and management of amphibians with complex life cycles and provide options for how to prioritize conservation actions in the face of logistical and budgetary shortfalls.
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Gabriela Parra-Olea
2016-11-01
Full Text Available We describe three new species of minute salamanders, genus Thorius, from the Sierra Madre del Sur of Oaxaca, Mexico. Until now only a single species, T. minutissimus, has been reported from this region, although molecular data have long shown extensive genetic differentiation among geographically disjunct populations. Adult Thorius pinicola sp. nov., T. longicaudus sp. nov., and T. tlaxiacus sp. nov. are larger than T. minutissimus and possess elliptical rather than oval nostrils; T. pinicola and T. longicaudus also have longer tails. All three new species occur west of the range of T. minutissimus, which has the easternmost distribution of any member of the genus. The new species are distinguished from each other and from other named Thorius in Oaxaca by a combination of adult body size, external morphology and osteology, and by protein characters (allozymes and differences in DNA sequences. In addition, we redescribe T. minutissimus and a related species, T. narisovalis, to further clarify the taxonomic status of Oaxacan populations and to facilitate future studies of the remaining genetically differentiated Thorius that cannot be satisfactorily assigned to any named species. Populations of all five species considered here appear to have declined dramatically over the last one or two decades and live specimens are difficult to find in nature. Thorius may be the most endangered genus of amphibians in the world. All species may go extinct before the end of this century.
Flexibility of the axial central pattern generator network for locomotion in the salamander.
Ryczko, D; Knüsel, J; Crespi, A; Lamarque, S; Mathou, A; Ijspeert, A J; Cabelguen, J M
2015-03-15
In tetrapods, limb and axial movements are coordinated during locomotion. It is well established that inter- and intralimb coordination show considerable variations during ongoing locomotion. Much less is known about the flexibility of the axial musculoskeletal system during locomotion and the neural mechanisms involved. Here we examined this issue in the salamander Pleurodeles waltlii, which is capable of locomotion in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Kinematics of the trunk and electromyograms from the mid-trunk epaxial myotomes were recorded during four locomotor behaviors in freely moving animals. A similar approach was used during rhythmic struggling movements since this would give some insight into the flexibility of the axial motor system. Our results show that each of the forms of locomotion and the struggling behavior is characterized by a distinct combination of mid-trunk motor patterns and cycle durations. Using in vitro electrophysiological recordings in isolated spinal cords, we observed that the spinal networks activated with bath-applied N-methyl-d-aspartate could generate these axial motor patterns. In these isolated spinal cord preparations, the limb motor nerve activities were coordinated with each mid-trunk motor pattern. Furthermore, isolated mid-trunk spinal cords and hemicords could generate the mid-trunk motor patterns. This indicates that each side of the cord comprises a network able to generate coordinated axial motor activity. The roles of descending and sensory inputs in the behavior-related changes in axial motor coordination are discussed. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.
Parra-Olea, Gabriela; Rovito, Sean M; García-París, Mario; Maisano, Jessica A; Wake, David B; Hanken, James
2016-01-01
We describe three new species of minute salamanders, genus Thorius , from the Sierra Madre del Sur of Oaxaca, Mexico. Until now only a single species, T. minutissimus , has been reported from this region, although molecular data have long shown extensive genetic differentiation among geographically disjunct populations. Adult Thorius pinicola sp. nov., T. longicaudus sp. nov., and T. tlaxiacus sp. nov. are larger than T. minutissimus and possess elliptical rather than oval nostrils; T. pinicola and T. longicaudus also have longer tails. All three new species occur west of the range of T. minutissimus , which has the easternmost distribution of any member of the genus. The new species are distinguished from each other and from other named Thorius in Oaxaca by a combination of adult body size, external morphology and osteology, and by protein characters (allozymes) and differences in DNA sequences. In addition, we redescribe T. minutissimus and a related species, T. narisovalis , to further clarify the taxonomic status of Oaxacan populations and to facilitate future studies of the remaining genetically differentiated Thorius that cannot be satisfactorily assigned to any named species. Populations of all five species considered here appear to have declined dramatically over the last one or two decades and live specimens are difficult to find in nature. Thorius may be the most endangered genus of amphibians in the world. All species may go extinct before the end of this century.
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Jeremiah R. Alexander
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Understanding the temporal and spatial scale at which habitat alteration impacts populations is important for conservation and management. Amphibians have declined more than other vertebrates, and pond-breeding species are particularly susceptible to habitat loss and fragmentation because they have terrestrial and aquatic life stages. One approach to management of pond-breeding species is protection of core upland habitat surrounding the breeding pond. We used genetic variation as an indicator of population status in a common amphibian species, spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum, to determine how amount of suitable upland habitat relates to population status in the greater Charlotte, North Carolina, USA metropolitan area. We developed candidate models to evaluate the relative influence of historical and contemporary forested habitat availability on population genetic variation at two spatial scales of upland area (164 m and 2000 m at four time intervals over the past seven decades (1938, 1978, 1993, 2005. We found that historical land cover best predicted contemporary allelic richness. Inbreeding coefficient and observed heterozygosity were not effectively predicted by forest cover at either spatial or temporal scales. Allelic richness was best predicted at the smaller spatial scale in the 1993 time interval. Predicting and understanding how future landscape configuration affects genetic variation of common and rare species is imperative for the conservation of amphibian and other wildlife populations.
Genetic drift and rapid evolution of viviparity in insular fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra)
Velo-Antón, G; Zamudio, K R; Cordero-Rivera, A
2012-01-01
Continental islands offer an excellent opportunity to investigate adaptive processes and to time microevolutionary changes that precede macroevolutionary events. We performed a population genetic study of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), a species that displays unique intraspecific diversity of reproductive strategies, to address the microevolutionary processes leading to phenotypic and genetic differentiation of island, coastal and interior populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure and demographic parameters in viviparous insular populations and ovoviviparous coastal and interior populations. Our results show considerable genetic differentiation (FST range: 0.06–0.27), and no clear signs of gene flow among populations, except between the large and admixed interior populations. We find no support for island colonization by rafting or intentional/accidental anthropogenic introductions, indicating that rising sea levels were responsible for isolation of the island populations approximately 9000 years ago. Our study provides evidence of rapid genetic differentiation between island and coastal populations, and rapid evolution of viviparity driven by climatic selective pressures on island populations, geographic isolation with genetic drift, or a combination of these factors. Studies of these viviparous island populations in early stages of divergence help us better understand the microevolutionary processes involved in rapid phenotypic shifts. PMID:22086081
Transcriptome analysis of the Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus using RNA-sequencing
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Yong Huang
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus is an economically important animal on academic value. However, the genomic information of this species has been less studied. In our study, the transcripts of A. davidianus were obtained by RNA-seq to conduct a transcriptomic analysis. In total 132,912 unigenes were generated with an average length of 690 bp and N50 of 1263 bp by de novo assembly using Trinity software. Using a sequence similarity search against the nine public databases (CDD, KOG, NR, NT, PFAM, Swiss-prot, TrEMBL, GO and KEGG databases, a total of 24,049, 18,406, 36,711, 15,858, 20,500, 27,515, 36,705, 28,879 and 10,958 unigenes were annotated in databases, respectively. Of these, 6323 unigenes were annotated in all database and 39,672 unigenes were annotated in at least one database. Blasted with KEGG pathway, 10,958 unigenes were annotated, and it was divided into 343 categories according to different pathways. In addition, we also identified 29,790 SSRs. This study provided a valuable resource for understanding transcriptomic information of A. davidianus and laid a foundation for further research on functional gene cloning, genomics, genetic diversity analysis and molecular marker exploitation in A. davidianus.
Bayesian Approach to Inverse Problems
2008-01-01
Many scientific, medical or engineering problems raise the issue of recovering some physical quantities from indirect measurements; for instance, detecting or quantifying flaws or cracks within a material from acoustic or electromagnetic measurements at its surface is an essential problem of non-destructive evaluation. The concept of inverse problems precisely originates from the idea of inverting the laws of physics to recover a quantity of interest from measurable data.Unfortunately, most inverse problems are ill-posed, which means that precise and stable solutions are not easy to devise. Regularization is the key concept to solve inverse problems.The goal of this book is to deal with inverse problems and regularized solutions using the Bayesian statistical tools, with a particular view to signal and image estimation
Bayesian modelling of fusion diagnostics
Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.; Pasch, E.
2003-07-01
Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics is the combination of different, heterogeneous diagnostics in order to improve physics knowledge and reduce the uncertainties of results. One example is the validation of profiles of plasma quantities. Integration of different diagnostics requires systematic and formalized error analysis for all uncertainties involved. The Bayesian probability theory (BPT) allows a systematic combination of all information entering the measurement descriptive model that considers all uncertainties of the measured data, calibration measurements, physical model parameters and measurement nuisance parameters. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters allows crucial uncertainties to be found, which has an impact on both diagnostic improvement and design. The systematic statistical modelling within the BPT is used for reconstructing electron density and electron temperature profiles from Thomson scattering data from the Wendelstein 7-AS stellarator. The inclusion of different diagnostics and first-principle information is discussed in terms of improvements.
Bayesian networks in educational assessment
Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M
2015-01-01
Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...... sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning...... under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented on model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning...
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soerensen Ringi, M.
1995-05-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.
Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics
Müller, Peter
2015-01-01
As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...
Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.
Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B
2011-12-01
Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soerensen Ringi, M.
1995-01-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs
A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David R. Wolf
1999-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.
A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.
Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K
2011-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework
Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...
Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N Thompson
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark
2006-01-01
We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shaffer H Bradley
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Hybrid zones represent valuable opportunities to observe evolution in systems that are unusually dynamic and where the potential for the origin of novelty and rapid adaptation co-occur with the potential for dysfunction. Recently initiated hybrid zones are particularly exciting evolutionary experiments because ongoing natural selection on novel genetic combinations can be studied in ecological time. Moreover, when hybrid zones involve native and introduced species, complex genetic patterns present important challenges for conservation policy. To assess variation of admixture dynamics, we scored a large panel of markers in five wild hybrid populations formed when Barred Tiger Salamanders were introduced into the range of California Tiger Salamanders. Results At three of 64 markers, introduced alleles have largely displaced native alleles within the hybrid populations. Another marker (GNAT1 showed consistent heterozygote deficits in the wild, and this marker was associated with embryonic mortality in laboratory F2's. Other deviations from equilibrium expectations were idiosyncratic among breeding ponds, consistent with highly stochastic demographic effects. Conclusion While most markers retain native and introduced alleles in expected proportions, strong selection appears to be eliminating native alleles at a smaller set of loci. Such rapid fixation of alleles is detectable only in recently formed hybrid zones, though it might be representative of dynamics that frequently occur in nature. These results underscore the variable and mosaic nature of hybrid genomes and illustrate the potency of recombination and selection in promoting variable, and often unpredictable genetic outcomes. Introgression of a few, strongly selected introduced alleles should not necessarily affect the conservation status of California Tiger Salamanders, but suggests that genetically pure populations of this endangered species will be difficult to
Johnson, Jarrett R; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M; Shaffer, H Bradley
2010-05-18
Introductions of non-native tiger salamanders into the range of California tiger salamanders have provided a rare opportunity to study the early stages of secondary contact and hybridization. We produced first- and second-generation hybrid salamanders in the lab and measured viability among these early-generation hybrid crosses to determine the strength of the initial barrier to gene exchange. We also created contemporary-generation hybrids in the lab and evaluated the extent to which selection has affected fitness over approximately 20 generations of admixture. Additionally, we examined the inheritance of quantitative phenotypic variation to better understand how evolution has progressed since secondary contact. We found significant variation in the fitness of hybrids, with non-native backcrosses experiencing the highest survival and F2 hybrids the lowest. Contemporary-generation hybrids had similar survival to that of F2 families, contrary to our expectation that 20 generations of selection in the wild would eliminate unfit genotypes and increase survival. Hybrid survival clearly exhibited effects of epistasis, whereas size and growth showed mostly additive genetic variance, and time to metamorphosis showed substantial dominance. Based on first- and second- generation cross types, our results suggest that the initial barrier to gene flow between these two species was relatively weak, and subsequent evolution has been generally slow. The persistence of low-viability recombinant hybrid genotypes in some contemporary populations illustrates that while hybridization can provide a potent source of genetic variation upon which natural selection can act, the sorting of fit from unfit gene combinations might be inefficient in highly admixed populations. Spatio-temporal fluctuation in selection or complex genetics has perhaps stalled adaptive evolution in this system despite selection for admixed genotypes within generations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shaffer H Bradley
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Introductions of non-native tiger salamanders into the range of California tiger salamanders have provided a rare opportunity to study the early stages of secondary contact and hybridization. We produced first- and second-generation hybrid salamanders in the lab and measured viability among these early-generation hybrid crosses to determine the strength of the initial barrier to gene exchange. We also created contemporary-generation hybrids in the lab and evaluated the extent to which selection has affected fitness over approximately 20 generations of admixture. Additionally, we examined the inheritance of quantitative phenotypic variation to better understand how evolution has progressed since secondary contact. Results We found significant variation in the fitness of hybrids, with non-native backcrosses experiencing the highest survival and F2 hybrids the lowest. Contemporary-generation hybrids had similar survival to that of F2 families, contrary to our expectation that 20 generations of selection in the wild would eliminate unfit genotypes and increase survival. Hybrid survival clearly exhibited effects of epistasis, whereas size and growth showed mostly additive genetic variance, and time to metamorphosis showed substantial dominance. Conclusions Based on first- and second- generation cross types, our results suggest that the initial barrier to gene flow between these two species was relatively weak, and subsequent evolution has been generally slow. The persistence of low-viability recombinant hybrid genotypes in some contemporary populations illustrates that while hybridization can provide a potent source of genetic variation upon which natural selection can act, the sorting of fit from unfit gene combinations might be inefficient in highly admixed populations. Spatio-temporal fluctuation in selection or complex genetics has perhaps stalled adaptive evolution in this system despite selection for admixed genotypes within
Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M; Johnson, Jarrett R; Kump, D Kevin; Shaffer, H Bradley; Smith, Jeramiah J; Voss, S Randal
2009-07-24
Hybrid zones represent valuable opportunities to observe evolution in systems that are unusually dynamic and where the potential for the origin of novelty and rapid adaptation co-occur with the potential for dysfunction. Recently initiated hybrid zones are particularly exciting evolutionary experiments because ongoing natural selection on novel genetic combinations can be studied in ecological time. Moreover, when hybrid zones involve native and introduced species, complex genetic patterns present important challenges for conservation policy. To assess variation of admixture dynamics, we scored a large panel of markers in five wild hybrid populations formed when Barred Tiger Salamanders were introduced into the range of California Tiger Salamanders. At three of 64 markers, introduced alleles have largely displaced native alleles within the hybrid populations. Another marker (GNAT1) showed consistent heterozygote deficits in the wild, and this marker was associated with embryonic mortality in laboratory F2's. Other deviations from equilibrium expectations were idiosyncratic among breeding ponds, consistent with highly stochastic demographic effects. While most markers retain native and introduced alleles in expected proportions, strong selection appears to be eliminating native alleles at a smaller set of loci. Such rapid fixation of alleles is detectable only in recently formed hybrid zones, though it might be representative of dynamics that frequently occur in nature. These results underscore the variable and mosaic nature of hybrid genomes and illustrate the potency of recombination and selection in promoting variable, and often unpredictable genetic outcomes. Introgression of a few, strongly selected introduced alleles should not necessarily affect the conservation status of California Tiger Salamanders, but suggests that genetically pure populations of this endangered species will be difficult to maintain.
Pisa, Giulia; Orioli, Valerio; Spilotros, Giulia; Fabbri, Elena; Randi, Ettore; Bani, Luciano
2015-02-01
The multistep method here applied in studying the genetic structure of a low dispersal and philopatric species, such as the Fire Salamander Salamandra salamandra, was proved to be effective in identifying the hierarchical structure of populations living in broad-leaved forest ecosystems in Northern Italy. In this study, 477 salamander larvae, collected in 28 sampling populations (SPs) in the Prealpine and in the foothill areas of Northern Italy, were genotyped at 16 specie-specific microsatellites. SPs showed a significant overall genetic variation (Global F ST = 0.032, P < 0.001). The genetic population structure was assessed by using STRUCTURE 2.3.4. We found two main genetic groups, one represented by SPs inhabiting the Prealpine belt, which maintain connections with those of the Eastern foothill lowland (PEF), and a second group with the SPs of the Western foothill lowland (WF). The two groups were significantly distinct with a Global F ST of 0.010 (P < 0.001). While the first group showed a moderate structure, with only one divergent SP (Global F ST = 0.006, P < 0.001), the second group proved more structured being divided in four clusters (Global F ST = 0.017, P = 0.058). This genetic population structure should be due to the large conurbations and main roads that separate the WF group from the Prealpine belt and the Eastern foothill lowland. The adopted methods allowed the analysis of the genetic population structure of Fire Salamander from wide to local scale, identifying different degrees of genetic divergence of their populations derived from forest fragmentation induced by urban and infrastructure sprawl.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baxter, Leilan; Brain, Richard A.; Hosmer, Alan J.; Nema, Mohini; Müller, Kirsten M.; Solomon, Keith R.; Hanson, Mark L.
2015-01-01
Embryonic growth of the yellow-spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) is enhanced by the presence of the green alga Oophila amblystomatis, in the egg capsule. To further assess potential impacts of herbicides on this relationship, A. maculatum egg masses were exposed to atrazine (0–338 μg/L) until hatching (up to 66 days). Exposure to atrazine reduced PSII yield of the symbiotic algae in a concentration-dependent manner, but did not significantly affect visible algal growth or any metrics associated with salamander development. Algal cells were also cultured in the laboratory for toxicity testing. In the 96-h growth inhibition test (0–680 μg/L), ECx values were generally greater than those reported for standard algal test species. Complete recovery of growth rates occurred within 96-h of transferring cells to untreated media. Overall, development of A. maculatum embryos was not affected by exposure to atrazine at concentrations and durations exceeding those found in the environment. - Highlights: • The yellow-spotted salamander produces eggs that are colonized by a symbiotic green alga. • We tested the sensitivity of this system to the herbicide atrazine. • Embryo development was not significantly affected by exposure at up to 300 μg/L. • The alga was isolated and 96-h growth tests were performed in the laboratory. • EC50s for Oophila sp. were >100 μg/L. - Development of Ambystoma maculatum embryos in egg masses was not impacted by exposure to atrazine at concentrations and durations exceeding those commonly found in the environment.
Secor, Stephen M; Boehm, Matthew
2006-01-01
The past decade has witnessed a dramatic increase in studies of amphibian and reptile specific dynamic action (SDA). These studies have demonstrated that SDA, the summed energy expended on meal digestion and assimilation, is affected significantly by meal size, meal type, and body size and to some extent by body temperature. While much of this attention has been directed at anuran and reptile SDA, we investigated the effects of meal size, meal type, and body temperature on the postprandial metabolic responses and the SDA of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). We also compared the SDA responses among six species of Ambystoma salamanders representing the breadth of Ambystoma phylogeny. Postprandial peaks in VO(2) and VO(2), duration of elevated metabolism, and SDA of tiger salamanders increased with the size of cricket meals (2.5%-12.5% of body mass). For A. tigrinum, as for other ectotherms, a doubling of meal size results in an approximate doubling of SDA, a function of equal increases in peak VO(2) and duration. For nine meal types of equivalent size (5% of body mass), the digestion of hard-bodied prey (crickets, superworms, mealworms, beetles) generated larger SDA responses than the digestion of soft-bodied prey (redworms, beetle larvae). Body temperature affected the profile of postprandial metabolism, increasing the peak and shortening the duration of the profile as body temperature increased. SDA was equivalent among three body temperatures (20 degrees, 25 degrees, and 30 degrees C) but decreased significantly at 15 degrees C. Comparatively, the postprandial metabolic responses and SDA of Ambystoma jeffersonianum, Ambystoma maculatum, Ambystoma opacum, Ambystoma talpoideum, Ambystoma texanum, and the conspecific Ambystoma tigrinum mavortium digesting cricket meals that were 5% of their body mass were similar (independent of body mass) to those of A. t. tigrinum. Among the six species, standard metabolic rate, peak postprandial VO(2), and SDA
Bayesian estimation and modeling: Editorial to the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis.
Chow, Sy-Miin; Hoijtink, Herbert
2017-12-01
This editorial accompanies the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis published in this journal. The emphases of this issue are on Bayesian estimation and modeling. In this editorial, we outline the basics of current Bayesian estimation techniques and some notable developments in the statistical literature, as well as adaptations and extensions by psychological researchers to better tailor to the modeling applications in psychology. We end with a discussion on future outlooks of Bayesian data analysis in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Mandrillon, Anne-Lise; Saglio, Philippe
2007-08-01
Within their aquatic habitats, larval amphibians are often subjected to multiple natural and anthropic stressors. Among these, predation and waterborne pollution represent two types of stressing factor that frequently co-occur. In this connection, the present laboratory study was designed to investigate the effects of amitrole, a commonly used triazole herbicide, on the predator-prey relationship between common frog tadpoles (Rana temporaria) and larval spotted salamander (Salamandra salamandra). Tadpoles were exposed for 3 days to 0, 0.01, 0.1, 1, and 10 mg/L amitrole, either in the absence or in the presence of larval salamanders. Tadpole behavior (refuge use, movements) was monitored every day, and the predation efficiency was assessed at the end of the experiment by counting the number of surviving tadpoles. In the absence of the predator, amitrole-exposed tadpoles (at 0.01, 0.1, and 1 mg/L) increased their refuge use and decreased their rate of movements. In the presence of the predator, amitrole contamination did not affect tadpole behavior, except on the first day, where tadpoles exposed to 10 mg/L were found to be significantly more active than unexposed control tadpoles. Throughout the experiment, control tadpoles were the only group to show significant reductions of activity and visibility in response to the predator's presence. In contrast, tadpoles exposed to 0.01 and 0.1 mg/L amitrole increased their refuge use in response to the predator, whereas their rate of movements remained unaffected. Furthermore, exposures of tadpoles to the two highest amitrole concentrations (1 and 10 mg/L) resulted in the loss of both behavioral responses to the predator's presence. Interestingly, the lack of antipredator behavior in amitrole-exposed tadpoles did not enhance their vulnerability to predation by the larval salamander. Moreover, tadpoles exposed to the two highest herbicide concentrations showed a better survival than unexposed controls, indicating that
Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella
2009-01-01
In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…
Reporting of Bayesian analysis in epidemiologic research should become more transparent
Rietbergen, Charlotte; Debray, Thomas P. A.; Klugkist, Irene; Janssen, Kristel J M; Moons, Karel G. M.
Objectives The objective of this systematic review is to investigate the use of Bayesian data analysis in epidemiology in the past decade and particularly to evaluate the quality of research papers reporting the results of these analyses. Study Design and Setting Complete volumes of five major
Osei, Frank B.; Osei, F.B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, A.
2011-01-01
This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint
In this paper, we present methods for estimating Freundlich isotherm fitting parameters (K and N) and their joint uncertainty, which have been implemented into the freeware software platforms R and WinBUGS. These estimates were determined by both Frequentist and Bayesian analyse...
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.
1994-01-01
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given
Bayesian analysis for the social sciences
Jackman, Simon
2009-01-01
Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS - the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world - and R - an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.
Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.
Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji
2018-01-01
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.
新家, 健精
1991-01-01
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography
An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baragatti Meïli
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.
Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.
2002-01-01
The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
A Bayesian concept learning approach to crowdsourcing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Viappiani, P.; Zilles, S.; Hamilton, H.J.
2011-01-01
We develop a Bayesian approach to concept learning for crowdsourcing applications. A probabilistic belief over possible concept definitions is maintained and updated according to (noisy) observations from experts, whose behaviors are modeled using discrete types. We propose recommendation...
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V
2014-01-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++
A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun
2005-01-01
.... In this approach, the source and target ontologies are first translated into Bayesian networks (BN); the concept mapping between the two ontologies are treated as evidential reasoning between the two translated BNs...
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data
Liang, Faming
2009-02-01
Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bayesian networks for management of industrial risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munteanu, P.; Debache, G.; Duval, C.
2008-01-01
This article presents the outlines of Bayesian networks modelling and argues for their interest in the probabilistic studies of industrial risk and reliability. A practical case representative of this type of study is presented in support of the argumentation. The article concludes on some research tracks aiming at improving the performances of the methods relying on Bayesian networks and at widening their application area in risk management. (authors)
MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.
2011-01-01
This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine
2016-01-01
Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross- entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf
Capturing Business Cycles from a Bayesian Viewpoint
大鋸, 崇
2011-01-01
This paper is a survey of empirical studies analyzing business cycles from the perspective of Bayesian econometrics. Kim and Nelson (1998) use a hybrid model; Dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and Markov switching model of Hamilton (1989). From the point of view, it is more important dealing with non-linear and non-Gaussian econometric models, recently. Although the classical econometric approaches have difficulty in these models, the Bayesian's do easily. The fact leads heavy u...
Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference
2016-05-09
inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle
A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition
Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick
2007-01-01
URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...
Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia
Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.
2009-12-01
Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2013-02-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2015-01-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575
Highton, Richard; Hastings, Amy Picard; Palmer, Catherine; Watts, Richard; Hass, Carla A.; Culver, Melanie; Arnold, Stevan
2012-01-01
Salamanders of the North American plethodontid genus Plethodon are important model organisms in a variety of studies that depend on a phylogenetic framework (e.g., chemical communication, ecological competition, life histories, hybridization, and speciation), and consequently their systematics has been intensively investigated over several decades. Nevertheless, we lack a synthesis of relationships among the species. In the analyses reported here we use new DNA sequence data from the complete nuclear albumin gene (1818 bp) and the 12s mitochondrial gene (355 bp), as well as published data for four other genes (Wiens et al., 2006), up to a total of 6989 bp, to infer relationships. We relate these results to past systematic work based on morphology, allozymes, and DNA sequences. Although basal relationships show a strong consensus across studies, many terminal relationships remain in flux despite substantial sequencing and other molecular and morphological studies. This systematic instability appears to be a consequence of contemporaneous bursts of speciation in the late Miocene and Pliocene, yielding many closely related extant species in each of the four eastern species groups. Therefore we conclude that many relationships are likely to remain poorly resolved in the face of additional sequencing efforts. On the other hand, the current classification of the 45 eastern species into four species groups is supported. The Plethodon cinereus group (10 species) is the sister group to the clade comprising the other three groups, but these latter groups (Plethodon glutinosus [28 species], Plethodon welleri [5 species], and Plethodon wehrlei [2 species]) probably diverged from each other at approximately the same time.
Bani, Luciano; Pisa, Giulia; Luppi, Massimiliano; Spilotros, Giulia; Fabbri, Elena; Randi, Ettore; Orioli, Valerio
2015-08-01
Small populations are more prone to extinction if the dispersal among them is not adequately maintained by ecological connections. The degree of isolation between populations could be evaluated measuring their genetic distance, which depends on the respective geographic (isolation by distance, IBD) and/or ecological (isolation by resistance, IBR) distances. The aim of this study was to assess the ecological connectivity of fire salamander Salamandra salamandra populations by means of a landscape genetic approach. The species lives in broad-leaved forest ecosystems and is particularly affected by fragmentation due to its habitat selectivity and low dispersal capability. We analyzed 477 biological samples collected in 47 sampling locations (SLs) in the mainly continuous populations of the Prealpine and Eastern foothill lowland (PEF) and 10 SLs in the fragmented populations of the Western foothill (WF) lowland of Lombardy (northern Italy). Pairwise genetic distances (Chord distance, DC) were estimated from allele frequencies of 16 microsatellites loci. Ecological distances were calculated using one of the most promising methodology in landscape genetics studies, the circuit theory, applied to habitat suitability maps. We realized two habitat suitability models: one without barriers (EcoD) and a second one accounting for the possible barrier effect of main roads (EcoDb). Mantel tests between distance matrices highlighted how the Log-DC in PEF populations was related to log-transformed geographic distance (confirming a prevalence of IBD), while it was explained by the Log-EcoD, and particularly by the Log-EcoDb, in WF populations, even when accounting for the confounding effect of geographic distance (highlighting a prevalence of IBR). Moreover, we also demonstrated how considering the overall population, the effect of Euclidean or ecological distances on genetic distances acting at the level of a single group (PEF or WF populations) could not be detected, when
Kukita, Sayuri; Gouda, Mika; Ikeda, Sakiko; Ishibashi, Sakiko; Furuya, Tatsunori; Nakamura, Keiji
2015-06-01
Day length is one of the most important factors that organisms use to predict seasonal changes in their environment. Several amphibians regulate their growth and development in response to photoperiod. However, many studies have not focused on the ecological effects of the photoperiodic response on growth and development because they use tropical animals, animals from a commercial source or from unknown localities, or extreme light regimens for experiments. In the present study, we examined the effects of photoperiod on growth and development in the clouded salamander (Hynobius nebulosus) by raising larvae under different photoperiods and at different temperatures in the laboratory. The average larval period under a long-day photoperiod of L16:D8 was longer than that under L12:D12 at 15°C or 20°C, although the difference between the photoperiods was only significant for 15°C. Juveniles weighed more at metamorphosis under L16:D8 than those under L12:D12, irrespective of temperature, suggesting that a longer developmental period results in a heavier body weight. The head width of juveniles did not differ for different photoperiods at either temperature. However, the growth rate of the head width under L12:D12 was faster than that under L16:D8 at 15°C. Long day length appears to produce larger H. nebulosus juveniles in a relatively stable aquatic environment with a low population density. Thus, development may be accelerated when the day length becomes shorter as winter approaches, and larvae may have increased the growth rate of their head widths to compensate for the shorter growing period under shorter day lengths.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Catherine D. McCusker
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Regenerative medicine has reached the point where we are performing clinical trials with stem-cell-derived cell populations in an effort to treat numerous human pathologies. However, many of these efforts have been challenged by the inability of the engrafted populations to properly integrate into the host environment to make a functional biological unit. It is apparent that we must understand the basic biology of tissue integration in order to apply these principles to the development of regenerative therapies in humans. Studying tissue integration in model organisms, where the process of integration between the newly regenerated tissues and the ‘old’ existing structures can be observed and manipulated, can provide valuable insights. Embryonic and adult cells have a memory of their original position, and this positional information can modify surrounding tissues and drive the formation of new structures. In this Review, we discuss the positional interactions that control the ability of grafted cells to integrate into existing tissues during the process of salamander limb regeneration, and discuss how these insights could explain the integration defects observed in current cell-based regenerative therapies. Additionally, we describe potential molecular tools that can be used to manipulate the positional information in grafted cell populations, and to promote the communication of positional cues in the host environment to facilitate the integration of engrafted cells. Lastly, we explain how studying positional information in current cell-based therapies and in regenerating limbs could provide key insights to improve the integration of cell-based regenerative therapies in the future.
EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer
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Kevin H. Knuth
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.
Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.
1992-01-01
Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come
Krause, E.T.; Caspers, B.A.
2015-01-01
Fire salamanders are amphibians that exhibit a highly specific reproductive mode termed ovo-viviparity. The eggs develop inside their mothers, and the females give birth to fully developed larvae. The larvae in our study area cluster in two distinct genetic groups that can be linked directly to the
Lester O. Dillard; Kevin R. Russell; W. Mark Ford
2008-01-01
The federally threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi; hereafter CMS) is known to occur in approximately 70 small, scattered populations in the Allegheny Mountains of eastern West Virginia, USA. Current conservation and management efforts on federal, state, and private lands involving CMS largely rely on small scale, largely...
Bhattacharjee, J.; Nunes Cardozo, B.; Kamphuis, W.; Kamermans, M.; Vrensen, G. F.
1997-01-01
Immunodetection techniques are dependent on enzyme-protein conjugates for the visualisation of antigen-antibody complexes. One of the most widely used is the avidin-biotin-peroxidase complex (ABC) method. The present study demonstrates that direct treatment of goldfish and salamander retinal
Fortuny, Josep; Marcé-Nogué, Jordi; Heiss, Egon; Sanchez, Montserrat; Gil, Lluis; Galobart, Àngel
2015-01-01
Biting is an integral feature of the feeding mechanism for aquatic and terrestrial salamanders to capture, fix or immobilize elusive or struggling prey. However, little information is available on how it works and the functional implications of this biting system in amphibians although such approaches might be essential to understand feeding systems performed by early tetrapods. Herein, the skull biomechanics of the Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus is investigated using 3D finite element analysis. The results reveal that the prey contact position is crucial for the structural performance of the skull, which is probably related to the lack of a bony bridge between the posterior end of the maxilla and the anterior quadrato-squamosal region. Giant salamanders perform asymmetrical strikes. These strikes are unusual and specialized behavior but might indeed be beneficial in such sit-and-wait or ambush-predators to capture laterally approaching prey. However, once captured by an asymmetrical strike, large, elusive and struggling prey have to be brought to the anterior jaw region to be subdued by a strong bite. Given their basal position within extant salamanders and their “conservative” morphology, cryptobranchids may be useful models to reconstruct the feeding ecology and biomechanics of different members of early tetrapods and amphibians, with similar osteological and myological constraints. PMID:25853557
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Josep Fortuny
Full Text Available Biting is an integral feature of the feeding mechanism for aquatic and terrestrial salamanders to capture, fix or immobilize elusive or struggling prey. However, little information is available on how it works and the functional implications of this biting system in amphibians although such approaches might be essential to understand feeding systems performed by early tetrapods. Herein, the skull biomechanics of the Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus is investigated using 3D finite element analysis. The results reveal that the prey contact position is crucial for the structural performance of the skull, which is probably related to the lack of a bony bridge between the posterior end of the maxilla and the anterior quadrato-squamosal region. Giant salamanders perform asymmetrical strikes. These strikes are unusual and specialized behavior but might indeed be beneficial in such sit-and-wait or ambush-predators to capture laterally approaching prey. However, once captured by an asymmetrical strike, large, elusive and struggling prey have to be brought to the anterior jaw region to be subdued by a strong bite. Given their basal position within extant salamanders and their "conservative" morphology, cryptobranchids may be useful models to reconstruct the feeding ecology and biomechanics of different members of early tetrapods and amphibians, with similar osteological and myological constraints.
Extraction of features from sleep EEG for Bayesian assessment of brain development.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vitaly Schetinin
Full Text Available Brain development can be evaluated by experts analysing age-related patterns in sleep electroencephalograms (EEG. Natural variations in the patterns, noise, and artefacts affect the evaluation accuracy as well as experts' agreement. The knowledge of predictive posterior distribution allows experts to estimate confidence intervals within which decisions are distributed. Bayesian approach to probabilistic inference has provided accurate estimates of intervals of interest. In this paper we propose a new feature extraction technique for Bayesian assessment and estimation of predictive distribution in a case of newborn brain development assessment. The new EEG features are verified within the Bayesian framework on a large EEG data set including 1,100 recordings made from newborns in 10 age groups. The proposed features are highly correlated with brain maturation and their use increases the assessment accuracy.
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Julio A. Lemos-Espinal
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Several species of salamander in the genus Ambystoma occur in the mountains surrounding Mexico City and are considered at risk of extinction. However, little is known about their ecology and natural history. The Toluca Stream Siredon (Ambystoma rivulare is classified as “Data Deficient” by the IUCN, and considered “Threatened” under Mexican law. From October 2013 to September 2014, we examined the diet of larval A. rivulare from a stream on the Volcán Nevado de Toluca in Mexico to provide insight into the suitability of the habitat to support this population of salamanders. Ostracods accounted for approximately 90% of all prey items consumed by larval A. rivulare. The number of ostracods found in stomachs increased with individual body size, but the proportion of ostracods in stomachs did not vary with body size. Nematodes were observed in approximately one third of the stomachs we examined. The diversity of prey in the diet of A. rivulare in the stream we studied is low and dominated by a single prey taxon, ostracods. Our results suggest that if environmental conditions in the stream change such that ostracods are negatively affected then the long-term persistence of this population of A. rivulare might be in jeopardy.
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William E Peterman
Full Text Available Environmental gradients are instrumental in shaping the distribution and local abundance of species because at the most fundamental level, an organism's performance is constrained by the environment it inhabits. In topographically complex landscapes, slope, aspect, and vegetative cover interact to affect solar exposure, creating temperature-moisture gradients and unique microclimates. The significance of the interaction of abiotic gradients and biotic factors such as competition, movement, or physiology has long been recognized, but the scale at which these factors vary on the landscape has generally precluded their inclusion in spatial abundance models. We used fine-scale spatial data relating to surface-soil moisture, temperature, and canopy cover to describe the spatial distribution of abundance of a terrestrial salamander, Plethodon albagula, across the landscape. Abundance was greatest in dense-canopy ravine habitats with high moisture and low solar exposure, resulting in a patchy distribution of abundance. We hypothesize that these patterns reflect the physiological constraints of Plethodontid salamanders. Furthermore, demographic cohorts were not uniformly distributed among occupied plots on the landscape. The probability of gravid female occurrence was nearly uniform among occupied plots, but juveniles were much more likely to occur on plots with lower surface temperatures. The disconnect between reproductive effort and recruitment suggests that survival differs across the landscape and that local population dynamics vary spatially. Our study demonstrates a connection between abundance, fine-scale environmental gradients, and population dynamics, providing a foundation for future research concerning movement, population connectivity, and physiology.
Bayesian graphical models for genomewide association studies.
Verzilli, Claudio J; Stallard, Nigel; Whittaker, John C
2006-07-01
As the extent of human genetic variation becomes more fully characterized, the research community is faced with the challenging task of using this information to dissect the heritable components of complex traits. Genomewide association studies offer great promise in this respect, but their analysis poses formidable difficulties. In this article, we describe a computationally efficient approach to mining genotype-phenotype associations that scales to the size of the data sets currently being collected in such studies. We use discrete graphical models as a data-mining tool, searching for single- or multilocus patterns of association around a causative site. The approach is fully Bayesian, allowing us to incorporate prior knowledge on the spatial dependencies around each marker due to linkage disequilibrium, which reduces considerably the number of possible graphical structures. A Markov chain-Monte Carlo scheme is developed that yields samples from the posterior distribution of graphs conditional on the data from which probabilistic statements about the strength of any genotype-phenotype association can be made. Using data simulated under scenarios that vary in marker density, genotype relative risk of a causative allele, and mode of inheritance, we show that the proposed approach has better localization properties and leads to lower false-positive rates than do single-locus analyses. Finally, we present an application of our method to a quasi-synthetic data set in which data from the CYP2D6 region are embedded within simulated data on 100K single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Analysis is quick (<5 min), and we are able to localize the causative site to a very short interval.
Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2007-01-01
The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations
Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms
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G. W. Petty
2013-09-01
Full Text Available An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals – whether Bayesian or not – lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.
Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms
Petty, G. W.
2013-09-01
An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.
Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network
Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya
2018-03-01
Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.
Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.
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Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.
2007-10-01
Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.
A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships
Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.
2017-01-01
ContextScientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.ObjectivesOur objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.MethodsWe introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA.ResultsOur method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%.ConclusionsGiven the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and
Transformation of Bayesian posterior distribution into a basic analytical distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan Cizelj, R.; Vrbanic, I.
2002-01-01
Bayesian estimation is well-known approach that is widely used in Probabilistic Safety Analyses for the estimation of input model reliability parameters, such as component failure rates or probabilities of failure upon demand. In this approach, a prior distribution, which contains some generic knowledge about a parameter is combined with likelihood function, which contains plant-specific data about the parameter. Depending on the type of prior distribution, the resulting posterior distribution can be estimated numerically or analytically. In many instances only a numerical Bayesian integration can be performed. In such a case the posterior is provided in the form of tabular discrete distribution. On the other hand, it is much more convenient to have a parameter's uncertainty distribution that is to be input into a PSA model to be provided in the form of some basic analytical probability distribution, such as lognormal, gamma or beta distribution. One reason is that this enables much more convenient propagation of parameters' uncertainties through the model up to the so-called top events, such as plant system unavailability or core damage frequency. Additionally, software tools used to run PSA models often require that parameter's uncertainty distribution is defined in the form of one among the several allowed basic types of distributions. In such a case the posterior distribution that came as a product of Bayesian estimation needs to be transformed into an appropriate basic analytical form. In this paper, some approaches on transformation of posterior distribution to a basic probability distribution are proposed and discussed. They are illustrated by an example from NPP Krsko PSA model.(author)
Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poern, K.
1994-01-01
This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability
Bayesian modeling of unknown diseases for biosurveillance.
Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F
2009-11-14
This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a Bayesian approach that models and detects both (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A key contribution of this paper is that it introduces a Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has broad applicability in medical informatics, where the space of known causes of outcomes of interest is seldom complete.
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lawson, Andrew
2013-01-01
.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...
Bayesian Inference in Polling Technique: 1992 Presidential Polls.
Satake, Eiki
1994-01-01
Explores the potential utility of Bayesian statistical methods in determining the predictability of multiple polls. Compares Bayesian techniques to the classical statistical method employed by pollsters. Considers these questions in the context of the 1992 presidential elections. (HB)
The Bayesian Approach to Association
Arora, N. S.
2017-12-01
The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this
Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide
Haug, Anton J
2012-01-01
A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten
2013-01-01
an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...
Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng Meng-Zhen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.
Bayesian inference and the parametric bootstrap
Efron, Bradley
2013-01-01
The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families, and are particularly simple starting from Jeffreys invariant prior. Because of the i.i.d. nature of bootstrap sampling, familiar formulas describe the computational accuracy of the Bayes estimates. Besides computational methods, the theory provides a connection between Bayesian and frequentist analysis. Efficient algorithms for the frequentist accuracy of Bayesian inferences are developed and demonstrated in a model selection example. PMID:23843930
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adam Gh.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.
2016-02-01
Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Szydlowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam; Kurek, Aleksandra; Kamionka, Michal
2015-01-01
Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)
Bayesian assignment of gene ontology terms to gene expression experiments.
Sykacek, P
2012-09-15
Gene expression assays allow for genome scale analyses of molecular biological mechanisms. State-of-the-art data analysis provides lists of involved genes, either by calculating significance levels of mRNA abundance or by Bayesian assessments of gene activity. A common problem of such approaches is the difficulty of interpreting the biological implication of the resulting gene lists. This lead to an increased interest in methods for inferring high-level biological information. A common approach for representing high level information is by inferring gene ontology (GO) terms which may be attributed to the expression data experiment. This article proposes a probabilistic model for GO term inference. Modelling assumes that gene annotations to GO terms are available and gene involvement in an experiment is represented by a posterior probabilities over gene-specific indicator variables. Such probability measures result from many Bayesian approaches for expression data analysis. The proposed model combines these indicator probabilities in a probabilistic fashion and provides a probabilistic GO term assignment as a result. Experiments on synthetic and microarray data suggest that advantages of the proposed probabilistic GO term inference over statistical test-based approaches are in particular evident for sparsely annotated GO terms and in situations of large uncertainty about gene activity. Provided that appropriate annotations exist, the proposed approach is easily applied to inferring other high level assignments like pathways. Source code under GPL license is available from the author. peter.sykacek@boku.ac.at.
On-line Bayesian model updating for structural health monitoring
Rocchetta, Roberto; Broggi, Matteo; Huchet, Quentin; Patelli, Edoardo
2018-03-01
Fatigue induced cracks is a dangerous failure mechanism which affects mechanical components subject to alternating load cycles. System health monitoring should be adopted to identify cracks which can jeopardise the structure. Real-time damage detection may fail in the identification of the cracks due to different sources of uncertainty which have been poorly assessed or even fully neglected. In this paper, a novel efficient and robust procedure is used for the detection of cracks locations and lengths in mechanical components. A Bayesian model updating framework is employed, which allows accounting for relevant sources of uncertainty. The idea underpinning the approach is to identify the most probable crack consistent with the experimental measurements. To tackle the computational cost of the Bayesian approach an emulator is adopted for replacing the computationally costly Finite Element model. To improve the overall robustness of the procedure, different numerical likelihoods, measurement noises and imprecision in the value of model parameters are analysed and their effects quantified. The accuracy of the stochastic updating and the efficiency of the numerical procedure are discussed. An experimental aluminium frame and on a numerical model of a typical car suspension arm are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.
Bayesian assignment of gene ontology terms to gene expression experiments
Sykacek, P.
2012-01-01
Motivation: Gene expression assays allow for genome scale analyses of molecular biological mechanisms. State-of-the-art data analysis provides lists of involved genes, either by calculating significance levels of mRNA abundance or by Bayesian assessments of gene activity. A common problem of such approaches is the difficulty of interpreting the biological implication of the resulting gene lists. This lead to an increased interest in methods for inferring high-level biological information. A common approach for representing high level information is by inferring gene ontology (GO) terms which may be attributed to the expression data experiment. Results: This article proposes a probabilistic model for GO term inference. Modelling assumes that gene annotations to GO terms are available and gene involvement in an experiment is represented by a posterior probabilities over gene-specific indicator variables. Such probability measures result from many Bayesian approaches for expression data analysis. The proposed model combines these indicator probabilities in a probabilistic fashion and provides a probabilistic GO term assignment as a result. Experiments on synthetic and microarray data suggest that advantages of the proposed probabilistic GO term inference over statistical test-based approaches are in particular evident for sparsely annotated GO terms and in situations of large uncertainty about gene activity. Provided that appropriate annotations exist, the proposed approach is easily applied to inferring other high level assignments like pathways. Availability: Source code under GPL license is available from the author. Contact: peter.sykacek@boku.ac.at PMID:22962488
Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergio Iannazzo
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.
Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.
Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom
2013-02-01
Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.
A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri
2013-01-01
representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research
Van de Schoot, Rens|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833207; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/081831218
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research
van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
Bayesian Identification of Emission-Line Galaxies with Photometric Equivalent Widths
Leung, Andrew S.; Gawiser, Eric J.; Acquaviva, Viviana; HETDEX Collaboration
2015-01-01
We present a Bayesian approach to the classification of emission-line galaxies as an alternative to the traditional limit of requiring Lyman-alpha emitting (LAE) galaxies to have rest-frame equivalent width (EW) > 20Å. The Bayesian method relies on known distributions of line luminosities and equivalent widths as prior probabilities and returns the probability that an object is an LAE given the observed characteristics. This will be directly relevant for the Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX), which seeks to classify more than a million emission-line galaxies into LAEs and low-redshift [O II] emitters. For a simulated HETDEX catalog with realistic measurement noise, the Bayesian method recovers a majority of the LAEs missed by the EW > 20 Angstroms cutoff over 2 20Å cut in contamination (false positives) and incompleteness (false negatives). Trade-off between contamination and incompleteness can be achieved by adjusting the stringency of the probability requirement for classifying an observed object as an LAE. A basic implementation of the Bayesian reduces errors in cosmological parameters by ~22%, which is equivalent to obtaining ~40% more data. The inclusion of the color of the galaxies, contingent on the availability of this information, increases the discriminating power of Bayesian separation and results in further reductions in errors. The Bayesian method is also being used to determine which single broadband filter produces the best performance. This method would enable large-scale structure analyses to be performed directly on emission-line objects labeled with probabilities of being LAEs rather than splitting the sample into LAEs and [O II] emitters.We gratefully acknowledge support from NSF through grant AST-1055919.
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
, and exercises are included for the reader to check his/her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined...
Riberon, A; Miaud, C; Grossenbacher, K; Taberlet, P
2001-10-01
Fifty individuals of the endemic Alpine salamander, Salamandra atra, representing 13 populations throughout the range of the two currently recognized subspecies, atra and aurorae, were examined for sequence variation in a large portion (1050 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. We revealed a large number of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes (10). Interpopulation sequence divergence was very low, ranging from 0 to 3.1%. The relationships among haplotypes were poorly resolved. The divergence time estimate between several mtDNA haplotypes suggested a pre-Pleistocene differentiation approximately 3 million years ago. Moreover, the impact of the Pleistocene glaciations on the phylogeographical patterns appears to have been secondary, although a somewhat reduced genetic variability was found in populations living in areas that were directly affected by the glaciation.
Meban, C
1979-01-01
The respiratory epithelium in the lungs of the common fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) has been studied by electron microscopy. The entire pulmonary gas-exchange area is covered by a continuous epithelium, the cells of which are all of the same type and are termed 'pneumonocytes'. Typically, each pneumonocyte is squamous and has attenuated sheets of cytoplasm which extend over the pulmonary capillaries. Its free surface bears squat microvilli, and osmiophilic inclusion bodies and other organelles are prominent in the cytoplasm. The lateral cell walls have numerous desmosomes and interdigitating cytoplasmic processes. Many cells send cytoplasmic processes deep into the substance of the lung septa. The morphological evidence suggests that the pneumonocytes are responsible for the secretion of pulmonary surface-active agents and for maintaining the integrity of the gaseous diffusion membrane. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 9 Fig. 10 Fig. 11 Fig. 12 PMID:422482
Kilarski, W; Kozlowska, M
1980-01-01
During limb regeneration of the salamander, Salamandra salamandra, muscles dedifferentiate and then mesenchymal cells appear, which subsequently, differentiate into muscle. Both in regenerates and in developing limbs of newts larvae mesenchymal cells begin to differentiate into myoblasts, which contain both thin (7 nm) and thick (14 nm) filaments, which are often associated with microtubules, developing a cytoskeletal network, which contribute directly to the shape of myoblasts and a linear alignment of the myofibrils. Both thin and thick filaments appear as a tandem near the periphery of the myoblasts, where myofibrilogenesis occurs. In the early stage of sarcomagenesis the appearance of "Z-bodies" was observed. They were intimately associated with the tandem of filaments thus forming the primary sarcomere units. Consequently the "Z-bodies" coalesce to form primitive Z-lines. The maturation of the primary sarcomeres occurs during fibrilogenesis and is manifested by the gradual thining of the Z-line and thickening of the M-line.
A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik
1996-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data
Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks
Crawford, Aaron
2014-01-01
This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…
Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman ﬁlter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become available. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated with ...
Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
MS received 8 October 2007; revised 15 July 2008. Abstract. This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become ...
Theory change and Bayesian statistical inference
Romeijn, Jan-Willem
2005-01-01
This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent
Bayesian mixture models for partially verified data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kostoulas, Polychronis; Browne, William J.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose
2013-01-01
Bayesian mixture models can be used to discriminate between the distributions of continuous test responses for different infection stages. These models are particularly useful in case of chronic infections with a long latent period, like Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection...
Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update
Litvinenko, Alexander
2016-06-23
We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.
Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...
Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation
Wan, Eric A.
1990-01-01
The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.
Bayesian Estimation of Item Response Curves.
Tsutakawa, Robert K.; Lin, Hsin Ying
1986-01-01
Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. (Author/LMO)
Speech Segmentation Using Bayesian Autoregressive Changepoint Detector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Sovka
1998-12-01
Full Text Available This submission is devoted to the study of the Bayesian autoregressive changepoint detector (BCD and its use for speech segmentation. Results of the detector application to autoregressive signals as well as to real speech are given. BCD basic properties are described and discussed. The novel two-step algorithm consisting of cepstral analysis and BCD for automatic speech segmentation is suggested.
Bayesian networks: a combined tuning heuristic
Bolt, J.H.
2016-01-01
One of the issues in tuning an output probability of a Bayesian network by changing multiple parameters is the relative amount of the individual parameter changes. In an existing heuristic parameters are tied such that their changes induce locally a maximal change of the tuned probability. This
Exploiting structure in cooperative Bayesian games
Oliehoek, F.A.; Whiteson, S.; Spaan, M.T.J.; de Freitas, N.; Murphy, K.
2012-01-01
Cooperative Bayesian games (BGs) can model decision-making problems for teams of agents under imperfect information, but require space and computation time that is exponential in the number of agents. While agent independence has been used to mitigate these problems in perfect information settings,
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)
2016-11-01
The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
An Approximate Bayesian Fundamental Frequency Estimator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt
2012-01-01
Joint fundamental frequency and model order estimation is an important problem in several applications such as speech and music processing. In this paper, we develop an approximate estimation algorithm of these quantities using Bayesian inference. The inference about the fundamental frequency...
Erratum Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
(1) The paper “Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion” contains a mistake in Appendix A, although this has not affected anything in the body of the paper. On page 172, the authors state correctly that the matrix F is, in general, not square, but then in (A.22) they take its determinant. This confusion resulted because the ...
On local optima in learning bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose
2003-01-01
This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric D. Johnson
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.
Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support. Keywords: Morphological analysis, Bayesian networks, strategic decision support. ORiON Vol. 23 (2) 2007: pp.
Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty
Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha
2018-04-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.
Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha
Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua
2013-01-01
The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…
Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference
Romeyn, Jan-Willem
2008-01-01
This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent
Default Bayesian Estimation of the Fundamental Frequency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt
2013-01-01
Joint fundamental frequency and model order esti- mation is an important problem in several applications. In this paper, a default estimation algorithm based on a minimum of prior information is presented. The algorithm is developed in a Bayesian framework, and it can be applied to both real...
Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing
Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for
Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.
1994-01-01
We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)
Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher
Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Morey, R.D.; Lee, M.D.
2016-01-01
The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam
Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses
Gu, X.; Mulder, J.; Deković, M.; Hoijtink, H.
2014-01-01
Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses enables researchers to investigate their expectations with respect to the structure among model parameters. This article proposes an approximate Bayes procedure that can be used for the selection of the best of a set of inequality constrained
Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.
Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto
2015-05-10
Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Low Complexity Bayesian Single Channel Source Separation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Beierholm, Thomas; Pedersen, Brian Dam; Winther, Ole
2004-01-01
We propose a simple Bayesian model for performing single channel speech separation using factorized source priors in a sliding window linearly transformed domain. Using a one dimensional mixture of Gaussians to model each band source leads to fast tractable inference for the source signals. Simul...
Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs
Chen, Y.; Welling, M.
2013-01-01
Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a
Quantifying Registration Uncertainty With Sparse Bayesian Modelling.
Le Folgoc, Loic; Delingette, Herve; Criminisi, Antonio; Ayache, Nicholas
2017-02-01
We investigate uncertainty quantification under a sparse Bayesian model of medical image registration. Bayesian modelling has proven powerful to automate the tuning of registration hyperparameters, such as the trade-off between the data and regularization functionals. Sparsity-inducing priors have recently been used to render the parametrization itself adaptive and data-driven. The sparse prior on transformation parameters effectively favors the use of coarse basis functions to capture the global trends in the visible motion while finer, highly localized bases are introduced only in the presence of coherent image information and motion. In earlier work, approximate inference under the sparse Bayesian model was tackled in an efficient Variational Bayes (VB) framework. In this paper we are interested in the theoretical and empirical quality of uncertainty estimates derived under this approximate scheme vs. under the exact model. We implement an (asymptotically) exact inference scheme based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to characterize the posterior distribution of the transformation and compare the predictions of the VB and MCMC based methods. The true posterior distribution under the sparse Bayesian model is found to be meaningful: orders of magnitude for the estimated uncertainty are quantitatively reasonable, the uncertainty is higher in textureless regions and lower in the direction of strong intensity gradients.