WorldWideScience

Sample records for bayesian multi-tissue approach

  1. New Insights into the Genetic Control of Gene Expression using a Bayesian Multi-tissue Approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Petretto, E.; Bottolo, L.; Langley, S. R.; Heinig, M.; McDermott-Roe, Ch.; Sarwar, R.; Pravenec, Michal; Hübner, N.; Aitman, T. J.; Cook, S.A.; Richardson, S.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 4 (2010), e1000737. ISSN 1553-734X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA301/08/0166; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0520; GA ČR GAP301/10/0290 Grant ostatní: EC(XE) LSHG-CT-2005-019015; Fondation Leducq(FR) 06 CVD 03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : expression profiles * Bayesian multi- tissue approach * genetical genomics Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 5.515, year: 2010

  2. Bayesian approach to rough set

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have fewer rules. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is conducted through sampling in the rough set granule space and Metropolis algorithm is used as an acceptance criteria. The proposed method is tested to estimate the risk of HIV given demographic data. The results obtained shows that the proposed approach is able to achieve an average accuracy of 58% with the accuracy varying up to 66%. In addition the Bayesian rough set give the probabilities of the estimated HIV status as well as the linguistic rules describing how the demographic parameters drive the risk of HIV.

  3. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  4. Bayesian Approach to Handling Informative Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Sikov, Anna

    2015-01-01

    In the case of informative sampling the sampling scheme explicitly or implicitly depends on the response variable. As a result, the sample distribution of response variable can- not be used for making inference about the population. In this research I investigate the problem of informative sampling from the Bayesian perspective. Application of the Bayesian approach permits solving the problems, which arise due to complexity of the models, being used for handling informative sampling. The main...

  5. BAYESIAN APPROACH OF DECISION PROBLEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOŞ STUPARU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Management is nowadays a basic vector of economic development, a concept frequently used in our country as well as all over the world. Indifferently of the hierarchical level at which the managerial process is manifested, decision represents its essential moment, the supreme act of managerial activity. Its can be met in all fields of activity, practically having an unlimited degree of coverage, and in all the functions of management. It is common knowledge that the activity of any type of manger, no matter the hierarchical level he occupies, represents a chain of interdependent decisions, their aim being the elimination or limitation of the influence of disturbing factors that may endanger the achievement of predetermined objectives, and the quality of managerial decisions condition the progress and viability of any enterprise. Therefore, one of the principal characteristics of a successful manager is his ability to adopt the most optimal decisions of high quality. The quality of managerial decisions are conditioned by the manager’s general level of education and specialization, the manner in which they are preoccupied to assimilate the latest information and innovations in the domain of management’s theory and practice and the applying of modern managerial methods and techniques in the activity of management. We are presenting below the analysis of decision problems in hazardous conditions in terms of Bayesian theory – a theory that uses the probabilistic calculus.

  6. Comparison of the Bayesian and Frequentist Approach to the Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Hakala, Michal

    2015-01-01

    The Thesis deals with introduction to Bayesian statistics and comparing Bayesian approach with frequentist approach to statistics. Bayesian statistics is modern branch of statistics which provides an alternative comprehensive theory to the frequentist approach. Bayesian concepts provides solution for problems not being solvable by frequentist theory. In the thesis are compared definitions, concepts and quality of statistical inference. The main interest is focused on a point estimation, an in...

  7. Integer variables estimation problems: the Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Venuti

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available In geodesy as well as in geophysics there are a number of examples where the unknown parameters are partly constrained to be integer numbers, while other parameters have a continuous range of possible values. In all such situations the ordinary least square principle, with integer variates fixed to the most probable integer value, can lead to paradoxical results, due to the strong non-linearity of the manifold of admissible values. On the contrary an overall estimation procedure assigning the posterior distribution to all variables, discrete and continuous, conditional to the observed quantities, like the so-called Bayesian approach, has the advantage of weighting correctly the possible errors in choosing different sets of integer values, thus providing a more realistic and stable estimate even of the continuous parameters. In this paper, after a short recall of the basics of Bayesian theory in section 2, we present the natural Bayesian solution to the problem of assessing the estimable signal from noisy observations in section 3 and the Bayesian solution to cycle slips detection and repair for a stream of GPS measurements in section 4. An elementary synthetic example is discussed in section 3 to illustrate the theory presented and more elaborate, though synthetic, examples are discussed in section 4 where realistic streams of GPS observations, with cycle slips, are simulated and then back processed.

  8. A Bayesian Concept Learning Approach to Crowdsourcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viappiani, Paolo Renato; Zilles, Sandra; Hamilton, Howard J.;

    2011-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian approach to concept learning for crowdsourcing applications. A probabilistic belief over possible concept definitions is maintained and updated according to (noisy) observations from experts, whose behaviors are modeled using discrete types. We propose recommendation...... techniques, inference methods, and query selection strategies to assist a user charged with choosing a configuration that satisfies some (partially known) concept. Our model is able to simultaneously learn the concept definition and the types of the experts. We evaluate our model with simulations, showing...

  9. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Vargas Trevino, Aurora Diozcora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

  10. Refining gene signatures: a Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Labbe Aurélie

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In high density arrays, the identification of relevant genes for disease classification is complicated by not only the curse of dimensionality but also the highly correlated nature of the array data. In this paper, we are interested in the question of how many and which genes should be selected for a disease class prediction. Our work consists of a Bayesian supervised statistical learning approach to refine gene signatures with a regularization which penalizes for the correlation between the variables selected. Results Our simulation results show that we can most often recover the correct subset of genes that predict the class as compared to other methods, even when accuracy and subset size remain the same. On real microarray datasets, we show that our approach can refine gene signatures to obtain either the same or better predictive performance than other existing methods with a smaller number of genes. Conclusions Our novel Bayesian approach includes a prior which penalizes highly correlated features in model selection and is able to extract key genes in the highly correlated context of microarray data. The methodology in the paper is described in the context of microarray data, but can be applied to any array data (such as micro RNA, for example as a first step towards predictive modeling of cancer pathways. A user-friendly software implementation of the method is available.

  11. A Bayesian approach to earthquake source studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah

    Bayesian sampling has several advantages over conventional optimization approaches to solving inverse problems. It produces the distribution of all possible models sampled proportionally to how much each model is consistent with the data and the specified prior information, and thus images the entire solution space, revealing the uncertainties and trade-offs in the model. Bayesian sampling is applicable to both linear and non-linear modeling, and the values of the model parameters being sampled can be constrained based on the physics of the process being studied and do not have to be regularized. However, these methods are computationally challenging for high-dimensional problems. Until now the computational expense of Bayesian sampling has been too great for it to be practicable for most geophysical problems. I present a new parallel sampling algorithm called CATMIP for Cascading Adaptive Tempered Metropolis In Parallel. This technique, based on Transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo, makes it possible to sample distributions in many hundreds of dimensions, if the forward model is fast, or to sample computationally expensive forward models in smaller numbers of dimensions. The design of the algorithm is independent of the model being sampled, so CATMIP can be applied to many areas of research. I use CATMIP to produce a finite fault source model for the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake. Surface displacements from the earthquake were recorded by six interferograms and twelve local high-rate GPS stations. Because of the wealth of near-fault data, the source process is well-constrained. I find that the near-field high-rate GPS data have significant resolving power above and beyond the slip distribution determined from static displacements. The location and magnitude of the maximum displacement are resolved. The rupture almost certainly propagated at sub-shear velocities. The full posterior distribution can be used not only to calculate source parameters but also

  12. A Bayesian Approach to Multifractal Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    Drivers such as climate change and rapid urbanisation will result in increasing flood problems in urban environments through this century. Problems encountered in existing flood defence strategies are often related to the data non-stationary, long range dependencies and the clustering of extremes often resulting in fat tailed (i.e., a power-law tail) probability distributions. We discuss how to better predict the floods by using a physically based approach established on systems that respect a scale symmetry over a wide range of space-time scales to determine the relationship between flood magnitude and return period for a wide range of aggregation periods. The classical quantile distributions unfortunately rely on two hypotheses that are questionable: stationarity and independency of the components of the time series. We pointed out that beyond the classical sampling of the extremes and its limitations, there is the possibility to eliminate long-range dependency by uncovering a white-noise process whose fractional integration generates the observed long-range dependent process. The results were obtained during the CEATI Project "Multifractals and physically based estimates of extreme floods". The ambition of this project was to investigate very large data sets of reasonable quality (e.g., daily stream flow data recorded for at least 20 years for several thousands of gages distributed all over Canada and the USA). The multifractal parameters such as the mean intermittency parameter and the multifractality index were estimated on 8332 time series. The results confirm the dependence of multifractal parameter estimates on the length of available data. Then developing a metric for parameter estimation error became a principal step in uncertainty evaluation with respect to the multifractal estimates. A technique for estimating confidence intervals with the help of a Bayesian approach was developed. A detailed comparison of multifractal quantile plots and paleoflood data

  13. Modeling Social Annotation: a Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Plangprasopchok, Anon

    2008-01-01

    Collaborative tagging systems, such as del.icio.us, CiteULike, and others, allow users to annotate objects, e.g., Web pages or scientific papers, with descriptive labels called tags. The social annotations, contributed by thousands of users, can potentially be used to infer categorical knowledge, classify documents or recommend new relevant information. Traditional text inference methods do not make best use of socially-generated data, since they do not take into account variations in individual users' perspectives and vocabulary. In a previous work, we introduced a simple probabilistic model that takes interests of individual annotators into account in order to find hidden topics of annotated objects. Unfortunately, our proposed approach had a number of shortcomings, including overfitting, local maxima and the requirement to specify values for some parameters. In this paper we address these shortcomings in two ways. First, we extend the model to a fully Bayesian framework. Second, we describe an infinite ver...

  14. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  15. Process adjustment by a Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Duret

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In a production or measure situation, operators are required to make corrections to a process using the measurement of a sample. In both cases, it is always difficult to suggest a correction from a deviation. The correction is the result of two different deviations: one in set-up and the second in production. The latter is considered as noise. The objective of this paper is to propose an original approach to calculate the best correction using a Bayesian approach. A correction formula is given with three assumptions as regards adjusting the distribution: uniform, triangular and normal distribution. This paper gives a graphical interpretation of these different assumptions and a discussion of the results. Based on these results, the paper proposes a practical rule for calculating the most likely maladjustment in the case of a normal distribution. This practical rule gives the best adjustment using a simple relation (Adjustment = K*sample mean where K depends on the sample size, the ratio between the maladjustment and the short-term variability and a Type I risk of large maladjustment.

  16. A new approach for Bayesian model averaging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN XiangJun; XIE ZhengHui; WANG AiHui; YANG XiaoChun

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a recently proposed statistical method for calibrating forecast ensembles from numerical weather models.However,successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble.Two methods,namely the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms,are widely used for BMA model training.Both methods have their own respective strengths and weaknesses.In this paper,we first modify the BMA log-likelihood function with the aim of removing the additional limitation that requires that the BMA weights add to one,and then use a limited memory quasi-Newtonian algorithm for solving the nonlinear optimization problem,thereby formulating a new approach for BMA (referred to as BMA-BFGS).Several groups of multi-model soil moisture simulation experiments from three land surface models show that the performance of BMA-BFGS is similar to the MCMC method in terms of simulation accuracy,and that both are superior to the EM algorithm.On the other hand,the computational cost of the BMA-BFGS algorithm is substantially less than for MCMC and is almost equivalent to that for EM.

  17. On an Approach to Bayesian Sample Sizing in Clinical Trials

    CERN Document Server

    Muirhead, Robb J

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A criterion for a "successful trial" is defined in terms of a posterior probability, its probability is assessed using the marginal distribution of the data, and this probability forms the basis for choosing sample sizes. We illustrate with a standard problem in clinical trials, that of establishing superiority of a new drug over a control.

  18. A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...

  19. A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Jean M.

    1973-01-01

    A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

  20. Bayesian approach to magnetotelluric tensor decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Menvielle

    2010-05-01

    ;} -->

    Magnetotelluric directional analysis and impedance tensor decomposition are basic tools to validate a local/regional composite electrical model of the underlying structure. Bayesian stochastic methods approach the problem of the parameter estimation and their uncertainty characterization in a fully probabilistic fashion, through the use of posterior model probabilities.We use the standard Groom­Bailey 3­D local/2­D regional composite model in our bayesian approach. We assume that the experimental impedance estimates are contamined with the Gaussian noise and define the likelihood of a particular composite model with respect to the observed data. We use non­informative, flat priors over physically reasonable intervals for the standard Groom­Bailey decomposition parameters. We apply two numerical methods, the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure based on the Gibbs sampler and a single­component adaptive Metropolis algorithm. From the posterior samples, we characterize the estimates and uncertainties of the individual decomposition parameters by using the respective marginal posterior probabilities. We conclude that the stochastic scheme performs reliably for a variety of models, including the multisite and multifrequency case with up to

  1. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen;

    2013-01-01

    Modern audio systems are typically equipped with several user-adjustable parameters unfamiliar to most users listening to the system. To obtain the best possible setting, the user is forced into multi-parameter optimization with respect to the users's own objective and preference. To address this......, the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is...

  2. Macroscopic hotspots identification: A Bayesian spatio-temporal interaction approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Ni; Huang, Helai; Lee, Jaeyoung; Gao, Mingyun; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-07-01

    This study proposes a Bayesian spatio-temporal interaction approach for hotspot identification by applying the full Bayesian (FB) technique in the context of macroscopic safety analysis. Compared with the emerging Bayesian spatial and temporal approach, the Bayesian spatio-temporal interaction model contributes to a detailed understanding of differential trends through analyzing and mapping probabilities of area-specific crash trends as differing from the mean trend and highlights specific locations where crash occurrence is deteriorating or improving over time. With traffic analysis zones (TAZs) crash data collected in Florida, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the following three approaches for hotspot identification: FB ranking using a Poisson-lognormal (PLN) model, FB ranking using a Bayesian spatial and temporal (B-ST) model and FB ranking using a Bayesian spatio-temporal interaction (B-ST-I) model. The results show that (a) the models accounting for space-time effects perform better in safety ranking than does the PLN model, and (b) the FB approach using the B-ST-I model significantly outperforms the B-ST approach in correctly identifying hotspots by explicitly accounting for the space-time variation in addition to the stable spatial/temporal patterns of crash occurrence. In practice, the B-ST-I approach plays key roles in addressing two issues: (a) how the identified hotspots have evolved over time and (b) the identification of areas that, whilst not yet hotspots, show a tendency to become hotspots. Finally, it can provide guidance to policy decision makers to efficiently improve zonal-level safety. PMID:27110645

  3. A Bayesian Networks approach to Operational Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquaro, V.; Bardoscia, M.; Bellotti, R.; Consiglio, A.; De Carlo, F.; Ferri, G.

    2010-04-01

    A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed, while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters; since the main aim is to understand the role of the correlations among the losses, the assessments of domain experts are not used. The algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed that the proposed algorithm has been thought for the practical implementation in a mid or small sized bank, since it has a small impact on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human resources which is limited to the computational area.

  4. Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, James E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

    2016-01-01

    This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

  5. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for software reliability estimation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Chatterjee; S S Alam; R B Misra

    2009-04-01

    This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become available. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated with some real life data

  6. Remotely sensed monitoring of small reservoir dynamics: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eilander, D.M.; Annor, F.O.; Iannini, L.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2014-01-01

    Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitorin

  7. A Bayesian approach to estimating the prehepatic insulin secretion rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Emil; Højbjerre, Malene

    the time courses of insulin and C-peptide subsequently are used as known forcing functions. In this work we adopt a Bayesian graphical model to describe the unied model simultaneously. We develop a model that also accounts for both measurement error and process variability. The parameters are estimated...... by a Bayesian approach where efficient posterior sampling is made available through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Hereby the ill-posed estimation problem inherited in the coupled differential equation model is regularized by the use of prior knowledge. The method is demonstrated on experimental...

  8. The subjectivity of scientists and the Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Press, James S

    2016-01-01

    "Press and Tanur argue that subjectivity has not only played a significant role in the advancement of science but that science will advance more rapidly if the modern methods of Bayesian statistical analysis replace some of the more classical twentieth-century methods." — SciTech Book News. "An insightful work." ― Choice. "Compilation of interesting popular problems … this book is fascinating." — Short Book Reviews, International Statistical Institute. Subjectivity ― including intuition, hunches, and personal beliefs ― has played a key role in scientific discovery. This intriguing book illustrates subjective influences on scientific progress with historical accounts and biographical sketches of more than a dozen luminaries, including Aristotle, Galileo, Newton, Darwin, Pasteur, Freud, Einstein, Margaret Mead, and others. The treatment also offers a detailed examination of the modern Bayesian approach to data analysis, with references to the Bayesian theoretical and applied literature. Suitable for...

  9. Towards a Supra-Bayesian Approach to Merging of Information

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    Prague: Institute of Information Theory and Automation, 2011, s. 81-86. ISBN 978-80-903834-6-3. [The 2nd International Workshop od Decision Making with Multiple Imperfect Decision Makers. Held in Conjunction with the 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2011). Sierra Nevada (ES), 16.12.2011-16.12.2011] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : decision makers * Supra-Bayesian * Bayesian solution * Merging Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/seckarova-towards a supra-bayesian approach to merging of information.pdf

  10. Stochastic model updating utilizing Bayesian approach and Gaussian process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Hua-Ping; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2016-03-01

    Stochastic model updating (SMU) has been increasingly applied in quantifying structural parameter uncertainty from responses variability. SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification refers to the problem of inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ), which is a nontrivial task. Inverse problem solved with optimization usually brings about the issues of gradient computation, ill-conditionedness, and non-uniqueness. Moreover, the uncertainty present in response makes the inverse problem more complicated. In this study, Bayesian approach is adopted in SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification. The prominent strength of Bayesian approach for IUQ problem is that it solves IUQ problem in a straightforward manner, which enables it to avoid the previous issues. However, when applied to engineering structures that are modeled with a high-resolution finite element model (FEM), Bayesian approach is still computationally expensive since the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference requires a large number of model runs to guarantee the convergence. Herein we reduce computational cost in two aspects. On the one hand, the fast-running Gaussian process model (GPM) is utilized to approximate the time-consuming high-resolution FEM. On the other hand, the advanced MCMC method using delayed rejection adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm that incorporates local adaptive strategy with global adaptive strategy is employed for Bayesian inference. In addition, we propose the use of the powerful variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in parameter selection to exclude non-influential parameters from calibration parameters, which yields a reduced-order model and thus further alleviates the computational burden. A simulated aluminum plate and a real-world complex cable-stayed pedestrian bridge are presented to illustrate the proposed framework and verify its feasibility.

  11. Airframe integrity based on Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurtado Cahuao, Jose Luis

    Aircraft aging has become an immense challenge in terms of ensuring the safety of the fleet while controlling life cycle costs. One of the major concerns in aircraft structures is the development of fatigue cracks in the fastener holes. A probabilistic-based method has been proposed to manage this problem. In this research, the Bayes' theorem is used to assess airframe integrity by updating generic data with airframe inspection data while such data are compiled. This research discusses the methodology developed for assessment of loss of airframe integrity due to fatigue cracking in the fastener holes of an aging platform. The methodology requires a probability density function (pdf) at the end of SAFE life. Subsequently, a crack growth regime begins. As the Bayesian analysis requires information of a prior initial crack size pdf, such a pdf is assumed and verified to be lognormally distributed. The prior distribution of crack size as cracks grow is modeled through a combined Inverse Power Law (IPL) model and lognormal relationships. The first set of inspections is used as the evidence for updating the crack size distribution at the various stages of aircraft life. Moreover, the materials used in the structural part of the aircrafts have variations in their properties due to their calibration errors and machine alignment. A Matlab routine (PCGROW) is developed to calculate the crack distribution growth through three different crack growth models. As the first step, the material properties and the initial crack size are sampled. A standard Monte Carlo simulation is employed for this sampling process. At the corresponding aircraft age, the crack observed during the inspections, is used to update the crack size distribution and proceed in time. After the updating, it is possible to estimate the probability of structural failure as a function of flight hours for a given aircraft in the future. The results show very accurate and useful values related to the reliability

  12. A Bayesian approach to simultaneously quantify assignments and linguistic uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC FREDERICKSBURG; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-10-07

    Subject matter expert assessments can include both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. This paper examines assessments containing linguistic uncertainty associated with a qualitative description of a specific state of interest and the assignment uncertainty associated with assigning a qualitative value to that state. A Bayesian approach is examined to simultaneously quantify both assignment and linguistic uncertainty in the posterior probability. The approach is applied to a simplified damage assessment model involving both assignment and linguistic uncertainty. The utility of the approach and the conditions under which the approach is feasible are examined and identified.

  13. Approach to the Correlation Discovery of Chinese Linguistic Parameters Based on Bayesian Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Wei(王玮); CAI LianHong(蔡莲红)

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian approach is an important method in statistics. The Bayesian belief network is a powerful knowledge representation and reasoning tool under the conditions of uncertainty.It is a graphics model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. In this paper, an approach to Bayesian network construction is given for discovering the Chinese linguistic parameter relationship in the corpus.

  14. A Dynamic Bayesian Approach to Computational Laban Shape Quality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Swaminathan

    2009-01-01

    kinesiology. LMA (especially Effort/Shape emphasizes how internal feelings and intentions govern the patterning of movement throughout the whole body. As we argue, a complex understanding of intention via LMA is necessary for human-computer interaction to become embodied in ways that resemble interaction in the physical world. We thus introduce a novel, flexible Bayesian fusion approach for identifying LMA Shape qualities from raw motion capture data in real time. The method uses a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN to fuse movement features across the body and across time and as we discuss can be readily adapted for low-cost video. It has delivered excellent performance in preliminary studies comprising improvisatory movements. Our approach has been incorporated in Response, a mixed-reality environment where users interact via natural, full-body human movement and enhance their bodily-kinesthetic awareness through immersive sound and light feedback, with applications to kinesiology training, Parkinson's patient rehabilitation, interactive dance, and many other areas.

  15. A Bayesian Approach to Protein Inference Problem in Shotgun Proteomics

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yong Fuga; Arnold, Randy J.; Li, Yixue; Radivojac, Predrag; Sheng, Quanhu; Tang, Haixu

    2009-01-01

    The protein inference problem represents a major challenge in shotgun proteomics. In this article, we describe a novel Bayesian approach to address this challenge by incorporating the predicted peptide detectabilities as the prior probabilities of peptide identification. We propose a rigorious probabilistic model for protein inference and provide practical algoritmic solutions to this problem. We used a complex synthetic protein mixture to test our method and obtained promising results.

  16. A bayesian approach to laboratory utilization management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald G Hauser

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Laboratory utilization management describes a process designed to increase healthcare value by altering requests for laboratory services. A typical approach to monitor and prioritize interventions involves audits of laboratory orders against specific criteria, defined as rule-based laboratory utilization management. This approach has inherent limitations. First, rules are inflexible. They adapt poorly to the ambiguity of medical decision-making. Second, rules judge the context of a decision instead of the patient outcome allowing an order to simultaneously save a life and break a rule. Third, rules can threaten physician autonomy when used in a performance evaluation. Methods: We developed an alternative to rule-based laboratory utilization. The core idea comes from a formula used in epidemiology to estimate disease prevalence. The equation relates four terms: the prevalence of disease, the proportion of positive tests, test sensitivity and test specificity. When applied to a laboratory utilization audit, the formula estimates the prevalence of disease (pretest probability [PTP] in the patients tested. The comparison of PTPs among different providers, provider groups, or patient cohorts produces an objective evaluation of laboratory requests. We demonstrate the model in a review of tests for enterovirus (EV meningitis. Results: The model identified subpopulations within the cohort with a low prevalence of disease. These low prevalence groups shared demographic and seasonal factors known to protect against EV meningitis. This suggests too many orders occurred from patients at low risk for EV. Conclusion: We introduce a new method for laboratory utilization management programs to audit laboratory services.

  17. Comparison of Bayesian-utilitarian and maximin principle approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comba, Pietro; Martuzzi, Marco; Botti, Caterina

    2004-01-01

    The Precautionary Principle implies the adoption of a set of rules aimed at avoiding possible future harm associated with suspected, but not ascertained, risk factors. Several philosophical, economical and societal questions are implied by precaution-based public health decision making. The purpose of the present paper is to specify the scope of the principle examining the notion of uncertainty involved, and the implication of different approaches to the decision-making process. The Bayesian-utilitarian approach and the approach based on the maximin principle will be considered, and the different meaning of prudence in the two settings will be discussed. In the Bayesian-utilitarian approach the small number of attributable cases will end up in a low average expected value, easily regarded as acceptable in a cost-benefit analysis. In a maximin approach, on the other hand, the issue will be to consider the high etiologic fraction of a rare disease in the highest category of exposure. In the light of the aforementioned cautions in interpretation, the core difference between the two approaches has to do with the choice between averaging knowledge or equitably distributing technological risks. PMID:15212224

  18. Remotely Sensed Monitoring of Small Reservoir Dynamics: A Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Eilander

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitoring small reservoirs with radar satellite images. The newly developed growing Bayesian classifier has a high degree of automation, can readily be extended with auxiliary information and reduces the confusion error to the land-water boundary pixels. A case study has been performed in the Upper East Region of Ghana, based on Radarsat-2 data from November 2012 until April 2013. Results show that the growing Bayesian classifier can deal with the spatial and temporal variability in synthetic aperture radar (SAR backscatter intensities from small reservoirs. Due to its ability to incorporate auxiliary information, the algorithm is able to delineate open water from SAR imagery with a low land-water contrast in the case of wind-induced Bragg scattering or limited vegetation on the land surrounding a small reservoir.

  19. SAR imaging via iterative adaptive approach and sparse Bayesian learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ming; Santiago, Enrique; Sedehi, Matteo; Tan, Xing; Li, Jian

    2009-05-01

    We consider sidelobe reduction and resolution enhancement in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging via an iterative adaptive approach (IAA) and a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) method. The nonparametric weighted least squares based IAA algorithm is a robust and user parameter-free adaptive approach originally proposed for array processing. We show that it can be used to form enhanced SAR images as well. SBL has been used as a sparse signal recovery algorithm for compressed sensing. It has been shown in the literature that SBL is easy to use and can recover sparse signals more accurately than the l 1 based optimization approaches, which require delicate choice of the user parameter. We consider using a modified expectation maximization (EM) based SBL algorithm, referred to as SBL-1, which is based on a three-stage hierarchical Bayesian model. SBL-1 is not only more accurate than benchmark SBL algorithms, but also converges faster. SBL-1 is used to further enhance the resolution of the SAR images formed by IAA. Both IAA and SBL-1 are shown to be effective, requiring only a limited number of iterations, and have no need for polar-to-Cartesian interpolation of the SAR collected data. This paper characterizes the achievable performance of these two approaches by processing the complex backscatter data from both a sparse case study and a backhoe vehicle in free space with different aperture sizes.

  20. A Bayesian experimental design approach to structural health monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Flynn, Eric [UCSD; Todd, Michael [UCSD

    2010-01-01

    Optimal system design for SHM involves two primarily challenges. The first is the derivation of a proper performance function for a given system design. The second is the development of an efficient optimization algorithm for choosing a design that maximizes, or nearly maximizes the performance function. In this paper we will outline how an SHM practitioner can construct the proper performance function by casting the entire design problem into a framework of Bayesian experimental design. The approach demonstrates how the design problem necessarily ties together all steps of the SHM process.

  1. The subjectivity of scientists and the Bayesian statistical approach

    CERN Document Server

    Press, James S

    2001-01-01

    Comparing and contrasting the reality of subjectivity in the work of history's great scientists and the modern Bayesian approach to statistical analysisScientists and researchers are taught to analyze their data from an objective point of view, allowing the data to speak for themselves rather than assigning them meaning based on expectations or opinions. But scientists have never behaved fully objectively. Throughout history, some of our greatest scientific minds have relied on intuition, hunches, and personal beliefs to make sense of empirical data-and these subjective influences have often a

  2. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach For Emission Tomography Reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce a PET reconstruction algorithm following a nonparametric Bayesian (NPB) approach. In contrast with Expectation Maximization (EM), the proposed technique does not rely on any space discretization. Namely, the activity distribution--normalized emission intensity of the spatial poisson process--is considered as a spatial probability density and observations are the projections of random emissions whose distribution has to be estimated. This approach is nonparametric in the sense that the quantity of interest belongs to the set of probability measures on Rk (for reconstruction in k-dimensions) and it is Bayesian in the sense that we define a prior directly on this spatial measure. In this context, we propose to model the nonparametric probability density as an infinite mixture of multivariate normal distributions. As a prior for this mixture we consider a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) with a Normal-Inverse Wishart (NIW) model as base distribution of the Dirichlet Process. As in EM-family reconstruction, we use a data augmentation scheme where the set of hidden variables are the emission locations for each observed line of response in the continuous object space. Thanks to the data augmentation, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Gibbs sampler) which is able to generate draws from the posterior distribution of the spatial intensity. A difference with EM is that one step of the Gibbs sampler corresponds to the generation of emission locations while only the expected number of emissions per pixel/voxel is used in EM. Another key difference is that the estimated spatial intensity is a continuous function such that there is no need to compute a projection matrix. Finally, draws from the intensity posterior distribution allow the estimation of posterior functionnals like the variance or confidence intervals. Results are presented for simulated data based on a 2D brain phantom and compared to Bayesian MAP-EM

  3. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach For Emission Tomography Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barat, Éric; Dautremer, Thomas

    2007-11-01

    We introduce a PET reconstruction algorithm following a nonparametric Bayesian (NPB) approach. In contrast with Expectation Maximization (EM), the proposed technique does not rely on any space discretization. Namely, the activity distribution—normalized emission intensity of the spatial poisson process—is considered as a spatial probability density and observations are the projections of random emissions whose distribution has to be estimated. This approach is nonparametric in the sense that the quantity of interest belongs to the set of probability measures on Rk (for reconstruction in k-dimensions) and it is Bayesian in the sense that we define a prior directly on this spatial measure. In this context, we propose to model the nonparametric probability density as an infinite mixture of multivariate normal distributions. As a prior for this mixture we consider a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) with a Normal-Inverse Wishart (NIW) model as base distribution of the Dirichlet Process. As in EM-family reconstruction, we use a data augmentation scheme where the set of hidden variables are the emission locations for each observed line of response in the continuous object space. Thanks to the data augmentation, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Gibbs sampler) which is able to generate draws from the posterior distribution of the spatial intensity. A difference with EM is that one step of the Gibbs sampler corresponds to the generation of emission locations while only the expected number of emissions per pixel/voxel is used in EM. Another key difference is that the estimated spatial intensity is a continuous function such that there is no need to compute a projection matrix. Finally, draws from the intensity posterior distribution allow the estimation of posterior functionnals like the variance or confidence intervals. Results are presented for simulated data based on a 2D brain phantom and compared to Bayesian MAP-EM.

  4. A novel Bayesian approach to spectral function reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Burnier, Yannis

    2013-01-01

    We present a novel approach to the inference of spectral functions from Euclidean time correlator data that makes close contact with modern Bayesian concepts. Our method differs significantly from the maximum entropy method (MEM). A new set of axioms is postulated for the prior probability, leading to an improved expression, which is devoid of the asymptotically flat directions present in the Shanon-Jaynes entropy. Hyperparameters are integrated out explicitly, liberating us from the Gaussian approximations underlying the evidence approach of the MEM. We present a realistic test of our method in the context of the non-perturbative extraction of the heavy quark potential. Based on hard-thermal-loop correlator mock data, we establish firm requirements in the number of data points and their accuracy for a successful extraction of the potential from lattice QCD. An improved potential estimation from previously investigated quenched lattice QCD correlators is provided.

  5. A Bayesian Approach to the Partitioning of Workflows

    CERN Document Server

    Chua, Freddy C

    2015-01-01

    When partitioning workflows in realistic scenarios, the knowledge of the processing units is often vague or unknown. A naive approach to addressing this issue is to perform many controlled experiments for different workloads, each consisting of multiple number of trials in order to estimate the mean and variance of the specific workload. Since this controlled experimental approach can be quite costly in terms of time and resources, we propose a variant of the Gibbs Sampling algorithm that uses a sequence of Bayesian inference updates to estimate the processing characteristics of the processing units. Using the inferred characteristics of the processing units, we are able to determine the best way to split a workflow for processing it in parallel with the lowest expected completion time and least variance.

  6. Detecting Threat E-mails using Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Banday, M Tariq; Jan, Tariq R; Shah, Nisar A

    2011-01-01

    Fraud and terrorism have a close connect in terms of the processes that enables and promote them. In the era of Internet, its various services that include Web, e-mail, social networks, blogs, instant messaging, chats, etc. are used in terrorism not only for communication but also for i) creation of ideology, ii) resource gathering, iii) recruitment, indoctrination and training, iv) creation of terror network, and v) information gathering. A major challenge for law enforcement and intelligence agencies is efficient and accurate gathering of relevant and growing volume of crime data. This paper reports on use of established Na\\"ive Bayesian filter for classification of threat e-mails. Efficiency in filtering threat e-mail by use of three different Na\\"ive Bayesian filter approaches i.e. single keywords, weighted multiple keywords and weighted multiple keywords with keyword context matching are evaluated on a threat e-mail corpus created by extracting data from sources that are very close to terrorism.

  7. Bayesian approach in MN low dose of radiation counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Micronucleus assay in lymphocytes is a well established technique for the assessment of genetic damage induced by ionizing radiation. Due to the presence of a natural background of MN the net MN is obtained by subtracting this value to the gross value. When very low doses of radiation are given the induced MN is close even lower than the predetermined background value. Furthermore, the damage distribution induced by the radiation follows a Poisson probability distribution. These two facts pose a difficult task to obtain the net counting rate in the exposed situations. It is possible to overcome this problem using a bayesian approach, in which the selection of a priori distributions for the background and net counting rate plays an important role. In the present work we make a detailed analysed using bayesian theory to infer the net counting rate in two different situations: a) when the background is known for an individual sample, using exact value value for the background and Jeffreys prior for the net counting rate, and b) when the background is not known and we make use of a population background distribution as background prior function and constant prior for the net counting rate. (Author)

  8. A Bayesian, exemplar-based approach to hierarchical shape matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrila, Dariu M

    2007-08-01

    This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach to hierarchical, exemplar-based shape matching. No feature correspondence is needed among exemplars, just a suitable pairwise similarity measure. The approach uses a template tree to efficiently represent and match the variety of shape exemplars. The tree is generated offline by a bottom-up clustering approach using stochastic optimization. Online matching involves a simultaneous coarse-to-fine approach over the template tree and over the transformation parameters. The main contribution of this paper is a Bayesian model to estimate the a posteriori probability of the object class, after a certain match at a node of the tree. This model takes into account object scale and saliency and allows for a principled setting of the matching thresholds such that unpromising paths in the tree traversal process are eliminated early on. The proposed approach was tested in a variety of application domains. Here, results are presented on one of the more challenging domains: real-time pedestrian detection from a moving vehicle. A significant speed-up is obtained when comparing the proposed probabilistic matching approach with a manually tuned nonprobabilistic variant, both utilizing the same template tree structure. PMID:17568144

  9. Bayesian approach to the detection problem in gravitational wave astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors can be divided into three phases: search, characterization, and evaluation. The evaluation of the detection--determining whether a candidate event is astrophysical in origin or some artifact created by instrument noise--is a crucial step in the analysis. The ongoing analyses of data from ground-based detectors employ a frequentist approach to the detection problem. A detection statistic is chosen, for which background levels and detection efficiencies are estimated from Monte Carlo studies. This approach frames the detection problem in terms of an infinite collection of trials, with the actual measurement corresponding to some realization of this hypothetical set. Here we explore an alternative, Bayesian approach to the detection problem, that considers prior information and the actual data in hand. Our particular focus is on the computational techniques used to implement the Bayesian analysis. We find that the parallel tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (PTMCMC) algorithm is able to address all three phases of the analysis in a coherent framework. The signals are found by locating the posterior modes, the model parameters are characterized by mapping out the joint posterior distribution, and finally, the model evidence is computed by thermodynamic integration. As a demonstration, we consider the detection problem of selecting between models describing the data as instrument noise, or instrument noise plus the signal from a single compact galactic binary. The evidence ratios, or Bayes factors, computed by the PTMCMC algorithm are found to be in close agreement with those computed using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

  10. A Robust Obstacle Avoidance for Service Robot Using Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Budiharto

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to propose a robust obstacle avoidance method for service robot in indoor environment. The method for obstacles avoidance uses information about static obstacles on the landmark using edge detection. Speed and direction of people that walks as moving obstacle obtained by single camera using tracking and recognition system and distance measurement using 3 ultrasonic sensors. A new geometrical model and maneuvering method for moving obstacle avoidance introduced and combined with Bayesian approach for state estimation. The obstacle avoidance problem is formulated using decision theory, prior and posterior distribution and loss function to determine an optimal response based on inaccurate sensor data. Algorithms for moving obstacles avoidance method proposed and experiment results implemented to service robot also presented. Various experiments show that our proposed method very fast, robust and successfully implemented to service robot called Srikandi II that equipped with 4 DOF arm robot developed in our laboratory.

  11. A Bayesian Approach to Detection of Small Low Emission Sources

    CERN Document Server

    Xun, Xiaolei; Carroll, Raymond J; Kuchment, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The article addresses the problem of detecting presence and location of a small low emission source inside of an object, when the background noise dominates. This problem arises, for instance, in some homeland security applications. The goal is to reach the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) levels on the order of $10^{-3}$. A Bayesian approach to this problem is implemented in 2D. The method allows inference not only about the existence of the source, but also about its location. We derive Bayes factors for model selection and estimation of location based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. A simulation study shows that with sufficiently high total emission level, our method can effectively locate the source.

  12. A Bayesian approach to the modelling of alpha Cen A

    CERN Document Server

    Bazot, M; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J

    2012-01-01

    Determining the physical characteristics of a star is an inverse problem consisting in estimating the parameters of models for the stellar structure and evolution, knowing certain observable quantities. We use a Bayesian approach to solve this problem for alpha Cen A, which allows us to incorporate prior information on the parameters to be estimated, in order to better constrain the problem. Our strategy is based on the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate the posterior probability densities of the stellar parameters: mass, age, initial chemical composition,... We use the stellar evolutionary code ASTEC to model the star. To constrain this model both seismic and non-seismic observations were considered. Several different strategies were tested to fit these values, either using two or five free parameters in ASTEC. We are thus able to show evidence that MCMC methods become efficient with respect to more classical grid-based strategies when the number of parameters increases. The resul...

  13. Multivariate meta-analysis of mixed outcomes: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Sutton, Alex J; Cooper, Nicola J; Harrison, Mark J; Symmons, Deborah P M; Abrams, Keith R

    2013-09-30

    Multivariate random effects meta-analysis (MRMA) is an appropriate way for synthesizing data from studies reporting multiple correlated outcomes. In a Bayesian framework, it has great potential for integrating evidence from a variety of sources. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for MRMA of mixed outcomes, which extends previously developed bivariate models to the trivariate case and also allows for combination of multiple outcomes that are both continuous and binary. We have constructed informative prior distributions for the correlations by using external evidence. Prior distributions for the within-study correlations were constructed by employing external individual patent data and using a double bootstrap method to obtain the correlations between mixed outcomes. The between-study model of MRMA was parameterized in the form of a product of a series of univariate conditional normal distributions. This allowed us to place explicit prior distributions on the between-study correlations, which were constructed using external summary data. Traditionally, independent 'vague' prior distributions are placed on all parameters of the model. In contrast to this approach, we constructed prior distributions for the between-study model parameters in a way that takes into account the inter-relationship between them. This is a flexible method that can be extended to incorporate mixed outcomes other than continuous and binary and beyond the trivariate case. We have applied this model to a motivating example in rheumatoid arthritis with the aim of incorporating all available evidence in the synthesis and potentially reducing uncertainty around the estimate of interest. PMID:23630081

  14. A Bayesian approach to spectral quantitative photoacoustic tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Bayesian approach to the optical reconstruction problem associated with spectral quantitative photoacoustic tomography is presented. The approach is derived for commonly used spectral tissue models of optical absorption and scattering: the absorption is described as a weighted sum of absorption spectra of known chromophores (spatially dependent chromophore concentrations), while the scattering is described using Mie scattering theory, with the proportionality constant and spectral power law parameter both spatially-dependent. It is validated using two-dimensional test problems composed of three biologically relevant chromophores: fat, oxygenated blood and deoxygenated blood. Using this approach it is possible to estimate the Grüneisen parameter, the absolute chromophore concentrations, and the Mie scattering parameters associated with spectral photoacoustic tomography problems. In addition, the direct estimation of the spectral parameters is compared to estimates obtained by fitting the spectral parameters to estimates of absorption, scattering and Grüneisen parameter at the investigated wavelengths. It is shown with numerical examples that the direct estimation results in better accuracy of the estimated parameters. (papers)

  15. AutoClass: A Bayesian Approach to Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, John; Cheeseman, Peter; Hanson, Robin; Taylor, Will; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    We describe a Bayesian approach to the untutored discovery of classes in a set of cases, sometimes called finite mixture separation or clustering. The main difference between clustering and our approach is that we search for the "best" set of class descriptions rather than grouping the cases themselves. We describe our classes in terms of a probability distribution or density function, and the locally maximal posterior probability valued function parameters. We rate our classifications with an approximate joint probability of the data and functional form, marginalizing over the parameters. Approximation is necessitated by the computational complexity of the joint probability. Thus, we marginalize w.r.t. local maxima in the parameter space. We discuss the rationale behind our approach to classification. We give the mathematical development for the basic mixture model and describe the approximations needed for computational tractability. We instantiate the basic model with the discrete Dirichlet distribution and multivariant Gaussian density likelihoods. Then we show some results for both constructed and actual data.

  16. Point and Interval Estimation on the Degree and the Angle of Polarization. A Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Maier, Daniel; Santangelo, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Linear polarization measurements provide access to two quantities, the degree (DOP) and the angle of polarization (AOP). The aim of this work is to give a complete and concise overview of how to analyze polarimetric measurements. We review interval estimations for the DOP with a frequentist and a Bayesian approach. Point estimations for the DOP and interval estimations for the AOP are further investigated with a Bayesian approach to match observational needs. Point and interval estimations are calculated numerically for frequentist and Bayesian statistics. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to clarify the meaning of the calculations. Under observational conditions, the true DOP and AOP are unknown, so that classical statistical considerations - based on true values - are not directly usable. In contrast, Bayesian statistics handles unknown true values very well and produces point and interval estimations for DOP and AOP, directly. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how to choose DOP point estimations based...

  17. Bayesian Approach to Neuro-Rough Models for Modelling HIV

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new neuro-rough model for modelling the risk of HIV from demographic data. The model is formulated using Bayesian framework and trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Metropolis criterion. When the model was tested to estimate the risk of HIV infection given the demographic data it was found to give the accuracy of 62% as opposed to 58% obtained from a Bayesian formulated rough set model trained using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and 62% obtained from a Bayesian formulated multi-layered perceptron (MLP) model trained using hybrid Monte. The proposed model is able to combine the accuracy of the Bayesian MLP model and the transparency of Bayesian rough set model.

  18. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  19. Super-resolution in cardiac MRI using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco Toledo, Nelson; Rueda, Andrea; Santa Marta, Cristina; Romero, Eduardo

    2013-03-01

    Acquisition of proper cardiac MR images is highly limited by continued heart motion and apnea periods. A typical acquisition results in volumes with inter-slice separations of up to 8 mm. This paper presents a super-resolution strategy that estimates a high-resolution image from a set of low-resolution image series acquired in different non-orthogonal orientations. The proposal is based on a Bayesian approach that implements a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator combined with a Wiener filter. A pre-processing stage was also included, to correct or eliminate differences in the image intensities and to transform the low-resolution images to a common spatial reference system. The MAP estimation includes an observation image model that represents the different contributions to the voxel intensities based on a 3D Gaussian function. A quantitative and qualitative assessment was performed using synthetic and real images, showing that the proposed approach produces a high-resolution image with significant improvements (about 3dB in PSNR) with respect to a simple trilinear interpolation. The Wiener filter shows little contribution to the final result, demonstrating that the MAP uniformity prior is able to filter out a large amount of the acquisition noise.

  20. A Bayesian approach to extracting meaning from system behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dress, W.B.

    1998-08-01

    The modeling relation and its reformulation to include the semiotic hierarchy is essential for the understanding, control, and successful re-creation of natural systems. This presentation will argue for a careful application of Rosen`s modeling relationship to the problems of intelligence and autonomy in natural and artificial systems. To this end, the authors discuss the essential need for a correct theory of induction, learning, and probability; and suggest that modern Bayesian probability theory, developed by Cox, Jaynes, and others, can adequately meet such demands, especially on the operational level of extracting meaning from observations. The methods of Bayesian and maximum Entropy parameter estimation have been applied to measurements of system observables to directly infer the underlying differential equations generating system behavior. This approach by-passes the usual method of parameter estimation based on assuming a functional form for the observable and then estimating the parameters that would lead to the particular observed behavior. The computational savings is great since only location parameters enter into the maximum-entropy calculations; this innovation finesses the need for nonlinear parameters altogether. Such an approach more directly extracts the semantics inherent in a given system by going to the root of system meaning as expressed by abstract form or shape, rather than in syntactic particulars, such as signal amplitude and phase. Examples will be shown how the form of a system can be followed while ignoring unnecessary details. In this sense, the authors are observing the meaning of the words rather than being concerned with their particular expression or language. For the present discussion, empirical models are embodied by the differential equations underlying, producing, or describing the behavior of a process as measured or tracked by a particular variable set--the observables. The a priori models are probability structures that

  1. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  2. Defining statistical perceptions with an empirical Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Satohiro

    2013-04-01

    Extracting statistical structures (including textures or contrasts) from a natural stimulus is a central challenge in both biological and engineering contexts. This study interprets the process of statistical recognition in terms of hyperparameter estimations and free-energy minimization procedures with an empirical Bayesian approach. This mathematical interpretation resulted in a framework for relating physiological insights in animal sensory systems to the functional properties of recognizing stimulus statistics. We applied the present theoretical framework to two typical models of natural images that are encoded by a population of simulated retinal neurons, and demonstrated that the resulting cognitive performances could be quantified with the Fisher information measure. The current enterprise yielded predictions about the properties of human texture perception, suggesting that the perceptual resolution of image statistics depends on visual field angles, internal noise, and neuronal information processing pathways, such as the magnocellular, parvocellular, and koniocellular systems. Furthermore, the two conceptually similar natural-image models were found to yield qualitatively different predictions, striking a note of warning against confusing the two models when describing a natural image.

  3. A new Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions

    CERN Document Server

    Burnier, Yannis

    2013-01-01

    We present a novel approach for the reconstruction of spectra from Euclidean correlator data that makes close contact to modern Bayesian concepts. It is based upon an axiomatically justified dimensionless prior distribution, which in the case of constant prior function $m(\\omega)$ only imprints smoothness on the reconstructed spectrum. In addition we are able to analytically integrate out the only relevant overall hyper-parameter $\\alpha$ in the prior, removing the necessity for Gaussian approximations found e.g. in the Maximum Entropy Method. Using a quasi-Newton minimizer and high-precision arithmetic, we are then able to find the unique global extremum of $P[\\rho|D]$ in the full $N_\\omega\\gg N_\\tau$ dimensional search space. The method actually yields gradually improving reconstruction results if the quality of the supplied input data increases, without introducing artificial peak structures, often encountered in the MEM. To support these statements we present mock data analyses for the case of zero width ...

  4. An agglomerative hierarchical approach to visualization in Bayesian clustering problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, K J; Belkhir, K

    2009-07-01

    Clustering problems (including the clustering of individuals into outcrossing populations, hybrid generations, full-sib families and selfing lines) have recently received much attention in population genetics. In these clustering problems, the parameter of interest is a partition of the set of sampled individuals--the sample partition. In a fully Bayesian approach to clustering problems of this type, our knowledge about the sample partition is represented by a probability distribution on the space of possible sample partitions. As the number of possible partitions grows very rapidly with the sample size, we cannot visualize this probability distribution in its entirety, unless the sample is very small. As a solution to this visualization problem, we recommend using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm, which we call the exact linkage algorithm. This algorithm is a special case of the maximin clustering algorithm that we introduced previously. The exact linkage algorithm is now implemented in our software package PartitionView. The exact linkage algorithm takes the posterior co-assignment probabilities as input and yields as output a rooted binary tree, or more generally, a forest of such trees. Each node of this forest defines a set of individuals, and the node height is the posterior co-assignment probability of this set. This provides a useful visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the assignment of individuals to categories. It is also a useful starting point for a more detailed exploration of the posterior distribution in terms of the co-assignment probabilities. PMID:19337306

  5. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia

    OpenAIRE

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics. We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular...

  6. Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    David Kelly; David Letson; Forest Nelson; Nolan, David S.; Daniel Solis

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on t...

  7. Modelling biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems: a Bayesian approach

    OpenAIRE

    Bagnara, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    Forest models are tools for explaining and predicting the dynamics of forest ecosystems. They simulate forest behavior by integrating information on the underlying processes in trees, soil and atmosphere. Bayesian calibration is the application of probability theory to parameter estimation. It is a method, applicable to all models, that quantifies output uncertainty and identifies key parameters and variables. This study aims at testing the Bayesian procedure for calibration to different t...

  8. Estimation of the correlation coefficient using the Bayesian Approach and its applications for epidemiologic research

    OpenAIRE

    England Lucinda J; Moysich Kirsten B; Schisterman Enrique F; Rao Malla

    2003-01-01

    Abstract Background The Bayesian approach is one alternative for estimating correlation coefficients in which knowledge from previous studies is incorporated to improve estimation. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the utility of the Bayesian approach for estimating correlations using prior knowledge. Methods The use of the hyperbolic tangent transformation (ρ = tanh ξ and r = tanh z) enables the investigator to take advantage of the conjugate properties of the normal distribution, w...

  9. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.;

    2013-01-01

    -lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...... in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models.Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis...... of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions...

  10. Uncertainty analysis using Beta-Bayesian approach in nuclear safety code validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • To meet the 95/95 criterion, the Wilks’ method is identical to the Bayesian approach. • A prior selection in Bayesian approach is of strong influenced on the code run times. • It is possible to utilize prior experience to reduce code runs to meet the 95/95 criterion. • The variation of the probability for each code runs is provided. - Abstract: Since best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis was approved by Nuclear Regulatory Commission for nuclear reactor safety evaluation, several uncertainty assessment methods have been proposed and applied in the framework of best-estimate code validation in nuclear industry. Among them, the Wilks’ method and Bayesian approach are the two most popular statistical methods for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the inherent relation between the two methods using the Beta distribution function as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Subsequently, the Wilks’ method can be considered as a special case of Beta-Bayesian approach, equivalent to the conservative case with Wallis’ “pessimistic” prior in the Bayesian analysis. However, the results do depend on the choice of the pessimistic prior function forms. The analysis of mean and variance through Beta-Bayesian approach provides insight into the Wilks’ 95/95 results with different orders. It indicates that the 95/95 results of Wilks’ method become more accurate and more precise with the increasing of the order. Furthermore, Bayesian updating process is well demonstrated in the code validation practice. The selection of updating prior can make use of the current experience of the code failure and success statistics, so as to effectively predict further needed number of numerical simulations to reach the 95/95 criterion

  11. Genetic evaluation of popcorn families using a Bayesian approach via the independence chain algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rodovalho

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine genetic parameters of popping expansion and grain yield in a trial of 169 halfsib families using a Bayesian approach. The independence chain algorithm with informative priors for the components of residual and family variance (inverse-gamma prior distribution was used. Popping expansion was found to be moderately heritable, with a posterior mode of h2 of 0.34, and 90% Bayesian confidence interval of 0.22 to 0.44. The heritability of grain yield (family level was moderate (h2 = 0.4 with Bayesian confidence interval of 0.28 to 0.49. The target population contains sufficient genetic variability for subsequent breeding cycles, and the Bayesian approach is a useful alternative for scientific inference in the genetic evaluation of popcorn.

  12. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  13. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics. We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia. We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients. PMID:27227925

  14. Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models and...... geographical information systems. The proposed framework comprises several modules: A module on the probabilistic description of potential future earthquake shaking intensity, a module on the probabilistic assessment of spatial variability of soil liquefaction, a module on damage assessment of buildings and a...... fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated on...

  15. An algeraic approach to structural learning Bayesian networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan

    Paris: Editions EDK, 2006 - (Bouchon-Meunier, B.; Yager, R.), s. 2284-2291 ISBN 2-84254-112-X. [IMPU 2006. Paris (FR), 02.07.2006-07.07.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/04/0393 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : learning Bayesian networks * standard imset * data vector Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  16. A Quasirandom Approach to Integration in Bayesian Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, J. E. H.

    1988-01-01

    Practical Bayesian statistics with realistic models usually gives posterior distributions that are analytically intractable, and inferences must be made via numerical integration. In many cases, the integrands can be transformed into periodic functions on the unit $d$-dimensional cube, for which quasirandom sequences are known to give efficient numerical integration rules. This paper reviews some relevant theory, defines new criteria for identifying suitable quasirandom sequences and suggests...

  17. Regional fertility data analysis: A small area Bayesian approach

    OpenAIRE

    Eduardo A. Castro; Zhen Zhang; Arnab Bhattacharjee; Martins, José M.; Taps Maiti

    2013-01-01

    Accurate estimation of demographic variables such as mortality, fertility and migrations, by age groups and regions, is important for analyses and policy. However, traditional estimates based on within cohort counts are often inaccurate, particularly when the sub-populations considered are small. We use small area Bayesian statistics to develop a model for age-specific fertility rates. In turn, such small area estimation requires accurate descriptions of spatial and cross-section dependence. ...

  18. A General and Flexible Approach to Estimating the Social Relations Model Using Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludtke, Oliver; Robitzsch, Alexander; Kenny, David A.; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2013-01-01

    The social relations model (SRM) is a conceptual, methodological, and analytical approach that is widely used to examine dyadic behaviors and interpersonal perception within groups. This article introduces a general and flexible approach to estimating the parameters of the SRM that is based on Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo…

  19. Comparison between the basic least squares and the Bayesian approach for elastic constants identification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gogu, C; Le Riche, R; Molimard, J; Vautrin, A [Ecole des Mines de Saint Etienne, 158 cours Fauriel, 42023 Saint Etienne (France); Haftka, R; Sankar, B [University of Florida, PO Box 116250, Gainesville, FL, 32611 (United States)], E-mail: gogu@emse.fr

    2008-11-01

    The basic formulation of the least squares method, based on the L{sub 2} norm of the misfit, is still widely used today for identifying elastic material properties from experimental data. An alternative statistical approach is the Bayesian method. We seek here situations with significant difference between the material properties found by the two methods. For a simple three bar truss example we illustrate three such situations in which the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate results: different magnitude of the measurements, different uncertainty in the measurements and correlation among measurements. When all three effects add up, the Bayesian approach can have a large advantage. We then compared the two methods for identification of elastic constants from plate vibration natural frequencies.

  20. [Contribution of computers to pharmacokinetics, Bayesian approach and population pharmacokinetics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecquet, B

    1995-12-01

    A major objective for pharmacokineticians is to help practicians to define drug administration protocols. Protocols are generally designed for all the patients but inter individual variability would need monitoring for each patient. Computers are widely used to determine pharmacokinetic parameters and to try to individualize drug administration. Severals examples are summarily described: terminal half-life determination by regression; model fitting to experimental data; Bayesian statistics for individual dose adaptation; population pharmacokinetic methods for parameter evaluation. These methods do not replace the pharmacokinetician thought but could make possible drug administration taking into account individual characteristics. PMID:8680074

  1. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPERT CAR FAILURE DIAGNOSIS SYSTEM WITH BAYESIAN APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Widodo Budiharto

    2013-01-01

    In this study we propose a model of an Expert System to diagnose a car failure and malfunction using Bayesian Approach. An expert car failure diagnosis system is a computer system that uses specific knowledge which is owned by an expert to resolve car problems. Our specific system consists of knowledge base and solution to diagnose failure of car from Toyota Avanza, one of the favorite car used in Indonesia today and applying Bayesian approach for knowing the belief of the solution. We build ...

  2. A Bayesian approach to matched field processing in uncertain ocean environments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jianlong; PAN Xiang

    2008-01-01

    An approach of Bayesian Matched Field Processing(MFP)was discussed in the uncertain ocean environment.In this approach,uncertainty knowledge is modeled and spatial and temporal data Received by the array are fully used.Therefore,a mechanism for MFP is found.which well combines model-based and data-driven methods of uncertain field processing.By theoretical derivation,simulation analysis and the validation of the experimental array data at sea,we find that(1)the basic components of Bayesian matched field processors are the corresponding sets of Bartlett matched field processor,MVDR(minimum variance distortionless response)matched field processor,etc.;(2)Bayesian MVDR/Bartlett MFP are the weighted sum of the MVDR/Bartlett MFP,where the weighted coefficients are the values of the a posteriori probability;(3)with the uncertain ocean environment,Bayesian MFP can more correctly locate the source than MVDR MFP or Bartlett MFP;(4)Bayesian MFP call better suppress sidelobes of the ambiguity surfaces.

  3. A Bayesian approach to linear regression in astronomy

    CERN Document Server

    Sereno, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Linear regression is common in astronomical analyses. I discuss a Bayesian hierarchical modeling of data with heteroscedastic and possibly correlated measurement errors and intrinsic scatter. The method fully accounts for time evolution. The slope, the normalization, and the intrinsic scatter of the relation can evolve with the redshift. The intrinsic distribution of the independent variable is approximated using a mixture of Gaussian distributions whose means and standard deviations depend on time. The method can address scatter in the measured independent variable (a kind of Eddington bias), selection effects in the response variable (Malmquist bias), and departure from linearity in form of a knee. I tested the method with toy models and simulations and quantified the effect of biases and inefficient modeling. The R-package LIRA (LInear Regression in Astronomy) is made available to perform the regression.

  4. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Image Super-Resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polatkan, Gungor; Zhou, Mingyuan; Carin, Lawrence; Blei, David; Daubechies, Ingrid

    2015-02-01

    Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric, the number of elements found is also determined from the data. We test the results on both benchmark and natural images, comparing with several other models from the research literature. We perform large-scale human evaluation experiments to assess the visual quality of the results. In a first implementation, we use Gibbs sampling to approximate the posterior. However, this algorithm is not feasible for large-scale data. To circumvent this, we then develop an online variational Bayes (VB) algorithm. This algorithm finds high quality dictionaries in a fraction of the time needed by the Gibbs sampler. PMID:26353246

  5. Inventory control of spare parts using a Bayesian approach: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K-P. Aronis; I. Magou (Ioulia); R. Dekker (Rommert); G. Tagaras (George)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents a case study of applying a Bayesian approach to forecast demand and subsequently determine the appropriate parameter S of an (S-1,S) inventory system for controlling spare parts of electronic equipment. First, the problem and the current policy are described. Then, t

  6. Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Robinson, Bruce A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ter Braak, Cajo J F [NON LANL; Gupta, Hoshin V [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.

  7. Genetic evaluation of popcorn families using a Bayesian approach via the independence chain algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Marcos Rodovalho; Freddy Mora; Osvin Arriagada; Carlos Maldonado; Emmanuel Arnhold; Carlos Alberto Scapim

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine genetic parameters of popping expansion and grain yield in a trial of 169 halfsib families using a Bayesian approach. The independence chain algorithm with informative priors for the components of residual and family variance (inverse-gamma prior distribution) was used. Popping expansion was found to be moderately heritable, with a posterior mode of h2 of 0.34, and 90% Bayesian confidence interval of 0.22 to 0.44. The heritability of gra...

  8. A population-based Bayesian approach to the minimal model of glucose and insulin homeostasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Emil; Højbjerre, Malene

    2005-01-01

    for a whole population. Traditionally it has been analysed in a deterministic set-up with only error terms on the measurements. In this work we adopt a Bayesian graphical model to describe the coupled minimal model that accounts for both measurement and process variability, and the model is extended...... to a population-based model. The estimation of the parameters are efficiently implemented in a Bayesian approach where posterior inference is made through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Hereby we obtain a powerful and flexible modelling framework for regularizing the ill-posed estimation problem...

  9. New approach using Bayesian Network to improve content based image classification systems

    CERN Document Server

    jayech, Khlifia

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new approach based on augmented naive Bayes for image classification. Initially, each image is cutting in a whole of blocks. For each block, we compute a vector of descriptors. Then, we propose to carry out a classification of the vectors of descriptors to build a vector of labels for each image. Finally, we propose three variants of Bayesian Networks such as Naive Bayesian Network (NB), Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) and Forest Augmented Naive Bayes (FAN) to classify the image using the vector of labels. The results showed a marked improvement over the FAN, NB and TAN.

  10. Integer linear programming approach to learning Bayesian network structure: towards the essential graph

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan

    Granada : DESCAI, University of Granada, 2012, s. 307-314. ISBN 978-84-15536-57-4. [6th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM). Granada (ES), 19.09.2012-21.09.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * characteristic imset * essential graph Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-integer linear programming approach to learning Bayesian network structure towards the essential graph.pdf

  11. Bayesian Belief Networks Approach for Modeling Irrigation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriyas, S.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    Canal operators need information to manage water deliveries to irrigators. Short-term irrigation demand forecasts can potentially valuable information for a canal operator who must manage an on-demand system. Such forecasts could be generated by using information about the decision-making processes of irrigators. Bayesian models of irrigation behavior can provide insight into the likely criteria which farmers use to make irrigation decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to learn irrigation decision-making behavior of farmers and utilizes the resulting model to make forecasts of future irrigation decisions based on factor interaction and posterior probabilities. Models for studying irrigation behavior have been rarely explored in the past. The model discussed here was built from a combination of data about biotic, climatic, and edaphic conditions under which observed irrigation decisions were made. The paper includes a case study using data collected from the Canal B region of the Sevier River, near Delta, Utah. Alfalfa, barley and corn are the main crops of the location. The model has been tested with a portion of the data to affirm the model predictive capabilities. Irrigation rules were deduced in the process of learning and verified in the testing phase. It was found that most of the farmers used consistent rules throughout all years and across different types of crops. Soil moisture stress, which indicates the level of water available to the plant in the soil profile, was found to be one of the most significant likely driving forces for irrigation. Irrigations appeared to be triggered by a farmer's perception of soil stress, or by a perception of combined factors such as information about a neighbor irrigating or an apparent preference to irrigate on a weekend. Soil stress resulted in irrigation probabilities of 94.4% for alfalfa. With additional factors like weekend and irrigating when a neighbor irrigates, alfalfa irrigation

  12. Finding Clocks in Genes: A Bayesian Approach to Estimate Periodicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Ren

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Identification of rhythmic gene expression from metabolic cycles to circadian rhythms is crucial for understanding the gene regulatory networks and functions of these biological processes. Recently, two algorithms, JTK_CYCLE and ARSER, have been developed to estimate periodicity of rhythmic gene expression. JTK_CYCLE performs well for long or less noisy time series, while ARSER performs well for detecting a single rhythmic category. However, observing gene expression at high temporal resolution is not always feasible, and many scientists are interested in exploring both ultradian and circadian rhythmic categories simultaneously. In this paper, a new algorithm, named autoregressive Bayesian spectral regression (ABSR, is proposed. It estimates the period of time-course experimental data and classifies gene expression profiles into multiple rhythmic categories simultaneously. Through the simulation studies, it is shown that ABSR substantially improves the accuracy of periodicity estimation and clustering of rhythmic categories as compared to JTK_CYCLE and ARSER for the data with low temporal resolution. Moreover, ABSR is insensitive to rhythmic patterns. This new scheme is applied to existing time-course mouse liver data to estimate period of rhythms and classify the genes into ultradian, circadian, and arrhythmic categories. It is observed that 49.2% of the circadian profiles detected by JTK_CYCLE with 1-hour resolution are also detected by ABSR with only 4-hour resolution.

  13. Bayesian Statistical Approach To Binary Asteroid Orbit Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmitrievna Kovalenko, Irina; Stoica, Radu S.

    2015-08-01

    Orbit determination from observations is one of the classical problems in celestial mechanics. Deriving the trajectory of binary asteroid with high precision is much more complicate than the trajectory of simple asteroid. Here we present a method of orbit determination based on the algorithm of Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC). This method can be used for the preliminary orbit determination with relatively small number of observations, or for adjustment of orbit previously determined.The problem consists on determination of a conditional a posteriori probability density with given observations. Applying the Bayesian statistics, the a posteriori probability density of the binary asteroid orbital parameters is proportional to the a priori and likelihood probability densities. The likelihood function is related to the noise probability density and can be calculated from O-C deviations (Observed minus Calculated positions). The optionally used a priori probability density takes into account information about the population of discovered asteroids. The a priori probability density is used to constrain the phase space of possible orbits.As a MCMC method the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has been applied, adding a globally convergent coefficient. The sequence of possible orbits derives through the sampling of each orbital parameter and acceptance criteria.The method allows to determine the phase space of every possible orbit considering each parameter. It also can be used to derive one orbit with the biggest probability density of orbital elements.

  14. Sparsely sampling the sky: a Bayesian experimental design approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paykari, P.; Jaffe, A. H.

    2013-08-01

    The next generation of galaxy surveys will observe millions of galaxies over large volumes of the Universe. These surveys are expensive both in time and cost, raising questions regarding the optimal investment of this time and money. In this work, we investigate criteria for selecting amongst observing strategies for constraining the galaxy power spectrum and a set of cosmological parameters. Depending on the parameters of interest, it may be more efficient to observe a larger, but sparsely sampled, area of sky instead of a smaller contiguous area. In this work, by making use of the principles of Bayesian experimental design, we will investigate the advantages and disadvantages of the sparse sampling of the sky and discuss the circumstances in which a sparse survey is indeed the most efficient strategy. For the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we find that by sparsely observing the same area in a smaller amount of time, we only increase the errors on the parameters by a maximum of 0.45 per cent. Conversely, investing the same amount of time as the original DES to observe a sparser but larger area of sky, we can in fact constrain the parameters with errors reduced by 28 per cent.

  15. A Comparison of Hierarchical and Non-Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches for Fitting Allometric Larch (Larix.spp. Biomass Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate biomass estimations are important for assessing and monitoring forest carbon storage. Bayesian theory has been widely applied to tree biomass models. Recently, a hierarchical Bayesian approach has received increasing attention for improving biomass models. In this study, tree biomass data were obtained by sampling 310 trees from 209 permanent sample plots from larch plantations in six regions across China. Non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to model allometric biomass equations. We found that the total, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage biomass model relationships were statistically significant (p-values < 0.001 for both the non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches, but the hierarchical Bayesian approach increased the goodness-of-fit statistics over the non-hierarchical Bayesian approach. The R2 values of the hierarchical approach were higher than those of the non-hierarchical approach by 0.008, 0.018, 0.020, 0.003, 0.088 and 0.116 for the total tree, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage models, respectively. The hierarchical Bayesian approach significantly improved the accuracy of the biomass model (except for the stem bark and can reflect regional differences by using random parameters to improve the regional scale model accuracy.

  16. True versus Apparent Malaria Infection Prevalence: The Contribution of a Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Speybroeck, Niko; Praet, Nicolas; Claes, Filip; Van Hong, Nguyen; Torres, Kathy; Mao, Sokny; Van den Eede, Peter; Ta Thi, Thinh; Gamboa, Dioni; Sochantha, Tho; Ngo Duc, Thang; Coosemans, Marc; Buescher, Philippe; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Berkvens, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Aims: To present a new approach for estimating the "true prevalence'' of malaria and apply it to datasets from Peru, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Methods: Bayesian models were developed for estimating both the malaria prevalence using different diagnostic tests (microscopy, PCR & ELISA), without the need of a gold standard, and the tests' characteristics. Several sources of information, i.e. data, expert opinions and other sources of knowledge can be integrated into the model. This approach resulti...

  17. Bayesian Approach in Estimation of Scale Parameter of Nakagami Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azam Zaka

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Nakagami distribution is a flexible life time distribution that may offer a good fit to some failure data sets. It has applications in attenuation of wireless signals traversing multiple paths, deriving unit hydrographs in hydrology, medical imaging studies etc. In this research, we obtain Bayesian estimators of the scale parameter of Nakagami distribution. For the posterior distribution of this parameter, we consider Uniform, Inverse Exponential and Levy priors. The three loss functions taken up are Squared Error Loss function, Quadratic Loss Function and Precautionary Loss function. The performance of an estimator is assessed on the basis of its relative posterior risk. Monte Carlo Simulations are used to compare the performance of the estimators. It is discovered that the PLF produces the least posterior risk when uniform priors is used. SELF is the best when inverse exponential and Levy Priors are used. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

  18. Bayesian approach to inverse problems for functions with a variable-index Besov prior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Junxiong; Peng, Jigen; Gao, Jinghuai

    2016-08-01

    The Bayesian approach has been adopted to solve inverse problems that reconstruct a function from noisy observations. Prior measures play a key role in the Bayesian method. Hence, many probability measures have been proposed, among which total variation (TV) is a well-known prior measure that can preserve sharp edges. However, it has two drawbacks, the staircasing effect and a lack of the discretization-invariant property. The variable-index TV prior has been proposed and analyzed in the area of image analysis for the former, and the Besov prior has been employed recently for the latter. To overcome both issues together, in this paper, we present a variable-index Besov prior measure, which is a non-Gaussian measure. Some useful properties of this new prior measure have been proven for functions defined on a torus. We have also generalized Bayesian inverse theory in infinite dimensions for our new setting. Finally, this theory has been applied to integer- and fractional-order backward diffusion problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the Bayesian approach has been used for the fractional-order backward diffusion problem, which provides an opportunity to quantify its uncertainties.

  19. A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. van der Tol

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations on the ground is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

  20. A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. van der Tol

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

  1. Bayesian approach to color-difference models based on threshold and constant-stimuli methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusola, Fernando; Tortajada, Ignacio; Lengua, Ismael; Jordá, Begoña; Peris, Guillermo

    2015-06-15

    An alternative approach based on statistical Bayesian inference is presented to deal with the development of color-difference models and the precision of parameter estimation. The approach was applied to simulated data and real data, the latter published by selected authors involved with the development of color-difference formulae using traditional methods. Our results show very good agreement between the Bayesian and classical approaches. Among other benefits, our proposed methodology allows one to determine the marginal posterior distribution of each random individual parameter of the color-difference model. In this manner, it is possible to analyze the effect of individual parameters on the statistical significance calculation of a color-difference equation. PMID:26193510

  2. A New Method for E-Government Procurement Using Collaborative Filtering and Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS. Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services’ attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach.

  3. A new method for E-government procurement using collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shuai; Xi, Chengyu; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Wenyu; Chen, Yanhong

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP) to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS). Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services' attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach. PMID:24385869

  4. Analyzing Rice distributed functional magnetic resonance imaging data: a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analyzing functional MRI data is often a hard task due to the fact that these periodic signals are strongly disturbed with noise. In many cases, the signals are buried under the noise and not visible, such that detection is quite impossible. However, it is well known that the amplitude measurements of such disturbed signals follow a Rice distribution which is characterized by two parameters. In this paper, an alternative Bayesian approach is proposed to tackle this two-parameter estimation problem. By incorporating prior knowledge into a mathematical framework, the drawbacks of the existing methods (i.e. the maximum likelihood approach and the method of moments) can be overcome. The performance of the proposed Bayesian estimator is analyzed theoretically and illustrated through simulations. Finally, the developed approach is successfully applied to measurement data for the analysis of functional MRI

  5. A Gene Selection Algorithm using Bayesian Classification Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Alok Sharma; Kuldip K. Paliwal

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new feature (or gene) selection algorithm using Bayes classification approach. The algorithm can find gene subset crucial for cancer classification problem. Problem statement: Gene identification plays important role in human cancer classification problem. Several feature selection algorithms have been proposed for analyzing and understanding influential genes using gene expression profiles. Approach: The feature selection algorithms aim to explore genes that are c...

  6. Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2016-04-01

    East Antarctica is an order of magnitude larger than its western neighbour and the Greenland ice sheet. It has the greatest potential to contribute to sea level rise of any source, including non-glacial contributors. It is, however, the most challenging ice mass to constrain because of a range of factors including the relative paucity of in-situ observations and the poor signal to noise ratio of Earth Observation data such as satellite altimetry and gravimetry. A recent study using satellite radar and laser altimetry (Zwally et al. 2015) concluded that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) had been accumulating mass at a rate of 136±28 Gt/yr for the period 2003-08. Here, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model, which has been tested on, and applied to, the whole of Antarctica, to investigate the impact of different assumptions regarding the origin of elevation changes of the EAIS. We combined GRACE, satellite laser and radar altimeter data and GPS measurements to solve simultaneously for surface processes (primarily surface mass balance, SMB), ice dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment over the period 2003-13. The hierarchical model partitions mass trends between SMB and ice dynamics based on physical principles and measures of statistical likelihood. Without imposing the division between these processes, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +18 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +39 Gt/yr, to SMB. The total mass trend for that period for the EAIS was 57±20 Gt/yr. Over the period 2003-08, we obtain an ice dynamic trend of 12 Gt/yr and a SMB trend of 15 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 27 Gt/yr. We then imposed the condition that the surface mass balance is tightly constrained by the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and allowed height changes due to ice dynamics to occur in areas of low surface velocities (<10 m/yr) , such as those in the interior of East Antarctica (a similar condition as used in Zwally 2015). The model must find a solution that

  7. Bayesian approach for three-dimensional aquifer characterization at the hanford 300 area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Murakami

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a stochastic, three-dimensional characterization of a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field within DOE's Hanford 300 Area site, Washington, by assimilating large-scale, constant-rate injection test data with small-scale, three-dimensional electromagnetic borehole flowmeter (EBF measurement data. We first inverted the injection test data to estimate the transmissivity field, using zeroth-order temporal moments of pressure buildup curves. We applied a newly developed Bayesian geostatistical inversion framework, the method of anchored distributions (MAD, to obtain a joint posterior distribution of geostatistical parameters and local log-transmissivities at multiple locations. The unique aspects of MAD that make it suitable for this purpose are its ability to integrate multi-scale, multi-type data within a Bayesian framework and to compute a nonparametric posterior distribution. After we combined the distribution of transmissivities with depth-discrete relative-conductivity profile from the EBF data, we inferred the three-dimensional geostatistical parameters of the log-conductivity field, using the Bayesian model-based geostatistics. Such consistent use of the Bayesian approach throughout the procedure enabled us to systematically incorporate data uncertainty into the final posterior distribution. The method was tested in a synthetic study and validated using the actual data that was not part of the estimation. Results showed broader and skewed posterior distributions of geostatistical parameters except for the mean, which suggests the importance of inferring the entire distribution to quantify the parameter uncertainty.

  8. Optimal speech motor control and token-to-token variability: a Bayesian modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patri, Jean-François; Diard, Julien; Perrier, Pascal

    2015-12-01

    The remarkable capacity of the speech motor system to adapt to various speech conditions is due to an excess of degrees of freedom, which enables producing similar acoustical properties with different sets of control strategies. To explain how the central nervous system selects one of the possible strategies, a common approach, in line with optimal motor control theories, is to model speech motor planning as the solution of an optimality problem based on cost functions. Despite the success of this approach, one of its drawbacks is the intrinsic contradiction between the concept of optimality and the observed experimental intra-speaker token-to-token variability. The present paper proposes an alternative approach by formulating feedforward optimal control in a probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. This is illustrated by controlling a biomechanical model of the vocal tract for speech production and by comparing it with an existing optimal control model (GEPPETO). The essential elements of this optimal control model are presented first. From them the Bayesian model is constructed in a progressive way. Performance of the Bayesian model is evaluated based on computer simulations and compared to the optimal control model. This approach is shown to be appropriate for solving the speech planning problem while accounting for variability in a principled way. PMID:26497359

  9. A Bayesian approach to PID in ALICE, as studied in the channel D0 → Kπ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Jeremy [Physikalisches Institut, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 226 (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    The standard particle identification (PID) method in ALICE uses a frequentist, or nσ, approach. In this method, particles are accepted via a selection on the number of standard deviations by which a signal differs from the expected detector response. This works well for most particle species, but in some cases, such as the non-resonant decay of Λ{sub c} → pKπ, the combinatorial background is too high to make a significant measurement. The usage of an alternative Bayesian approach, based on a combination of the measured dE/dx and time-of-flight of the daughter tracks, is presented here. The Bayesian method bases its response on prior probabilities of a given particle species being produced with a given momentum, allowing a calculation of the probability for a daughter particle to belong to each species (π, K, p, etc.) based on the detector response seen. In order to check the validity of this method, various decay channels were tested and compared to the nσ method. Among these was the channel D{sup 0} → Kπ, which provides a valuable cross-check of both the kaon and pion responses in this approach. In addition to considering the differences in signal-to-background ratio and significance obtained when applying the various methods, a comparison will be shown between the yield obtained without PID and those found when using Bayesian and nσ approaches after being corrected for their respective PID efficiencies.

  10. A Bayesian network approach to linear and nonlinear acoustic echo cancellation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huemmer, Christian; Maas, Roland; Hofmann, Christian; Kellermann, Walter

    2015-12-01

    This article provides a general Bayesian approach to the tasks of linear and nonlinear acoustic echo cancellation (AEC). We introduce a state-space model with latent state vector modeling all relevant information of the unknown system. Based on three cases for defining the state vector (to model a linear or nonlinear echo path) and its mathematical relation to the observation, it is shown that the normalized least mean square algorithm (with fixed and adaptive stepsize), the Hammerstein group model, and a numerical sampling scheme for nonlinear AEC can be derived by applying fundamental techniques for probabilistic graphical models. As a consequence, the major contribution of this Bayesian approach is a unifying graphical-model perspective which may serve as a powerful framework for future work in linear and nonlinear AEC.

  11. Bayesian-based estimation of acoustic surface impedance: Finite difference frequency domain approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bockman, Alexander; Fackler, Cameron; Xiang, Ning

    2015-04-01

    Acoustic performance for an interior requires an accurate description of the boundary materials' surface acoustic impedance. Analytical methods may be applied to a small class of test geometries, but inverse numerical methods provide greater flexibility. The parameter estimation problem requires minimizing prediction vice observed acoustic field pressure. The Bayesian-network sampling approach presented here mitigates other methods' susceptibility to noise inherent to the experiment, model, and numerics. A geometry agnostic method is developed here and its parameter estimation performance is demonstrated for an air-backed micro-perforated panel in an impedance tube. Good agreement is found with predictions from the ISO standard two-microphone, impedance-tube method, and a theoretical model for the material. Data by-products exclusive to a Bayesian approach are analyzed to assess sensitivity of the method to nuisance parameters. PMID:25920818

  12. Bayesian approach increases accuracy when selecting cowpea genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barroso, L M A; Teodoro, P E; Nascimento, M; Torres, F E; Dos Santos, A; Corrêa, A M; Sagrilo, E; Corrêa, C C G; Silva, F A; Ceccon, G

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to verify that a Bayesian approach could be used for the selection of upright cowpea genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability, and the study also evaluated the efficiency of using informative and minimally informative a priori distributions. Six trials were conducted in randomized blocks, and the grain yield of 17 upright cowpea genotypes was assessed. To represent the minimally informative a priori distributions, a probability distribution with high variance was used, and a meta-analysis concept was adopted to represent the informative a priori distributions. Bayes factors were used to conduct comparisons between the a priori distributions. The Bayesian approach was effective for selection of upright cowpea genotypes with high adaptability and phenotypic stability using the Eberhart and Russell method. Bayes factors indicated that the use of informative a priori distributions provided more accurate results than minimally informative a priori distributions. PMID:26985961

  13. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPERT CAR FAILURE DIAGNOSIS SYSTEM WITH BAYESIAN APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Budiharto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a model of an Expert System to diagnose a car failure and malfunction using Bayesian Approach. An expert car failure diagnosis system is a computer system that uses specific knowledge which is owned by an expert to resolve car problems. Our specific system consists of knowledge base and solution to diagnose failure of car from Toyota Avanza, one of the favorite car used in Indonesia today and applying Bayesian approach for knowing the belief of the solution. We build Knowledge representation techniques of symptoms and solution froman experts using production rules. The experimental results presented and we obtained that the system has been able to perform diagnosis on car failure, giving solution and also gives the probability value of that solution.

  14. A Bayesian Approach to Multistage Fitting of the Variation of the Skeletal Age Features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Hua

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate assessment of skeletal maturity is important clinically. Skeletal age assessment is usually based on features encoded in ossification centers. Therefore, it is critical to design a mechanism to capture as much as possible characteristics of features. We have observed that given a feature, there exist stages of the skeletal age such that the variation pattern of the feature differs in these stages. Based on this observation, we propose a Bayesian cut fitting to describe features in response to the skeletal age. With our approach, appropriate positions for stage separation are determined automatically by a Bayesian approach, and a model is used to fit the variation of a feature within each stage. Our experimental results show that the proposed method surpasses the traditional fitting using only one line or one curve not only in the efficiency and accuracy of fitting but also in global and local feature characterization.

  15. A Hybrid Approach for Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Zubair, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    By using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and non-technical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that the technical faults was one major reason of these accidents. Keep an eye on other point of view it becomes clearer that human behavior like dishonesty, insufficient training, and selfishness are also play a key role to cause these accidents. In this study, a hybrid approach for reliability analysis based on AHP ...

  16. Data-driven and Model-based Verification:a Bayesian Identification Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Haesaert, S Sofie; Hof, van den, S.; Abate, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work develops a measurement-driven and model-based formal verification approach, applicable to systems with partly unknown dynamics. We provide a principled method, grounded on reachability analysis and on Bayesian inference, to compute the confidence that a physical system driven by external inputs and accessed under noisy measurements, verifies a temporal logic property. A case study is discussed, where we investigate the bounded- and unbounded-time safety of a partly unknown linear ti...

  17. Identification of information tonality based on Bayesian approach and neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lande, D. V.

    2008-01-01

    A model of the identification of information tonality, based on Bayesian approach and neural networks was described. In the context of this paper tonality means positive or negative tone of both the whole information and its parts which are related to particular concepts. The method, its application is presented in the paper, is based on statistic regularities connected with the presence of definite lexemes in the texts. A distinctive feature of the method is its simplicity and versatility. A...

  18. A New Method for E-Government Procurement Using Collaborative Filtering and Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Shuai Zhang; Chengyu Xi; Yan Wang; Wenyu Zhang; Yanhong Chen

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP) to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS). Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M re...

  19. Evaluating impacts using a BACI design, ratios, and a Bayesian approach with a focus on restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mary M; Saunders, W Carl; Bouwes, Nicolaas; Jordan, Chris

    2015-10-01

    Before-after-control-impact (BACI) designs are an effective method to evaluate natural and human-induced perturbations on ecological variables when treatment sites cannot be randomly chosen. While effect sizes of interest can be tested with frequentist methods, using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods, probabilities of effect sizes, such as a ≥20 % increase in density after restoration, can be directly estimated. Although BACI and Bayesian methods are used widely for assessing natural and human-induced impacts for field experiments, the application of hierarchal Bayesian modeling with MCMC sampling to BACI designs is less common. Here, we combine these approaches and extend the typical presentation of results with an easy to interpret ratio, which provides an answer to the main study question-"How much impact did a management action or natural perturbation have?" As an example of this approach, we evaluate the impact of a restoration project, which implemented beaver dam analogs, on survival and density of juvenile steelhead. Results indicated the probabilities of a ≥30 % increase were high for survival and density after the dams were installed, 0.88 and 0.99, respectively, while probabilities for a higher increase of ≥50 % were variable, 0.17 and 0.82, respectively. This approach demonstrates a useful extension of Bayesian methods that can easily be generalized to other study designs from simple (e.g., single factor ANOVA, paired t test) to more complicated block designs (e.g., crossover, split-plot). This approach is valuable for estimating the probabilities of restoration impacts or other management actions. PMID:27613291

  20. Peering through a dirty window: A Bayesian approach to making mine detection decisions from noisy data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For several reasons, Bayesian parameter estimation is superior to other methods for extracting features of a weak signal from noise. Since it exploits prior knowledge, the analysis begins from a more advantageous starting point than other methods. Also, since ''nuisance parameters'' can be dropped out of the Bayesian analysis, the description of the model need not be as complete as is necessary for such methods as matched filtering. In the limit for perfectly random noise and a perfect description of the model, the signal-to-noise ratio improves as the square root of the number of samples in the data. Even with the imperfections of real-world data, Bayesian approaches this ideal limit of performance more closely than other methods. A major unsolved problem in landmine detection is the fusion of data from multiple sensor types. Bayesian data fusion is only beginning to be explored as a solution to the problem. In single sensor processes Bayesian analysis can sense multiple parameters from the data stream of the one sensor. It does so by computing a joint probability density function of a set of parameter values from the sensor output. However, there is no inherent requirement that the information must come from a single sensor. If multiple sensors are applied to a single process, where several different parameters are implicit in each sensor output data stream, the joint probability density function of all the parameters of interest can be computed in exactly the same manner as the single sensor case. Thus, it is just as practical to base decisions on multiple sensor outputs as it is for single sensors. This should provide a practical way to combine the outputs of dissimilar sensors, such as ground penetrating radar and electromagnetic induction devices, producing a better detection decision than could be provided by either sensor alone

  1. Peering through a dirty window: A Bayesian approach to making mine detection decisions from noisy data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kercel, Stephen W.

    1998-10-11

    For several reasons, Bayesian parameter estimation is superior to other methods for extracting features of a weak signal from noise. Since it exploits prior knowledge, the analysis begins from a more advantageous starting point than other methods. Also, since ''nuisance parameters'' can be dropped out of the Bayesian analysis, the description of the model need not be as complete as is necessary for such methods as matched filtering. In the limit for perfectly random noise and a perfect description of the model, the signal-to-noise ratio improves as the square root of the number of samples in the data. Even with the imperfections of real-world data, Bayesian approaches this ideal limit of performance more closely than other methods. A major unsolved problem in landmine detection is the fusion of data from multiple sensor types. Bayesian data fusion is only beginning to be explored as a solution to the problem. In single sensor processes Bayesian analysis can sense multiple parameters from the data stream of the one sensor. It does so by computing a joint probability density function of a set of parameter values from the sensor output. However, there is no inherent requirement that the information must come from a single sensor. If multiple sensors are applied to a single process, where several different parameters are implicit in each sensor output data stream, the joint probability density function of all the parameters of interest can be computed in exactly the same manner as the single sensor case. Thus, it is just as practical to base decisions on multiple sensor outputs as it is for single sensors. This should provide a practical way to combine the outputs of dissimilar sensors, such as ground penetrating radar and electromagnetic induction devices, producing a better detection decision than could be provided by either sensor alone.

  2. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. Methods This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. Results The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Conclusion Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of

  3. A Defence of the AR4’s Bayesian Approach to Quantifying Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezer, M. A.

    2009-12-01

    The field of climate change research is a kimberlite pipe filled with philosophic diamonds waiting to be mined and analyzed by philosophers. Within the scientific literature on climate change, there is much philosophical dialogue regarding the methods and implications of climate studies. To this date, however, discourse regarding the philosophy of climate science has been confined predominately to scientific - rather than philosophical - investigations. In this paper, I hope to bring one such issue to the surface for explicit philosophical analysis: The purpose of this paper is to address a philosophical debate pertaining to the expressions of uncertainty in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which, as will be noted, has received significant attention in scientific journals and books, as well as sporadic glances from the popular press. My thesis is that the AR4’s Bayesian method of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty expression is justifiable on pragmatic grounds: it overcomes problems associated with vagueness, thereby facilitating communication between scientists and policy makers such that the latter can formulate decision analyses in response to the views of the former. Further, I argue that the most pronounced criticisms against the AR4’s Bayesian approach, which are outlined below, are misguided. §1 Introduction Central to AR4 is a list of terms related to uncertainty that in colloquial conversations would be considered vague. The IPCC attempts to reduce the vagueness of its expressions of uncertainty by calibrating uncertainty terms with numerical probability values derived from a subjective Bayesian methodology. This style of analysis and expression has stimulated some controversy, as critics reject as inappropriate and even misleading the association of uncertainty terms with Bayesian probabilities. [...] The format of the paper is as follows. The investigation begins (§2) with an explanation of

  4. Estimation of Housing Vacancy Distributions: Basic Bayesian Approach Using Utility Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, K.; Matsuda, Y.; Ono, Y.

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we analyze the quality of water hydrant data for estimating housing vacancies based on their spatial relationships with the other geographical data that we consider are correlated with such vacancies. We compare with in-situ vacant house data in several small districts, thus verifying the applicability of the water hydrant data to the detection of vacant houses. Through applying Bayesian approach, we apply the water hydrant data and other geographical data to repeatedly Bayesian updating for the classification of vacant / no vacant houses. We discuss the results of this classification using the temporal intervals associated with turning off metering, fluctuations in local population density, the densities of water hydrants as indicators of vacancies and several other geographical data. We also conduct the feasibility study on visualisation for the estimation results of housing vacancy distributions derived from the fine spatial resolution data.

  5. A Bayesian approach to the semi-analytic model of galaxy formation: methodology

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Yu; Weinberg, Martin D; Katz, Neal S

    2010-01-01

    We believe that a wide range of physical processes conspire to shape the observed galaxy population but we remain unsure of their detailed interactions. The semi-analytic model (SAM) of galaxy formation uses multi-dimensional parameterizations of the physical processes of galaxy formation and provides a tool to constrain these underlying physical interactions. Because of the high dimensionality, the parametric problem of galaxy formation may be profitably tackled with a Bayesian-inference based approach, which allows one to constrain theory with data in a statistically rigorous way. In this paper, we develop a generalized SAM using the framework of Bayesian inference. We show that, with a parallel implementation of an advanced Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm, it is now possible to rigorously sample the posterior distribution of the high-dimensional parameter space of typical SAMs. As an example, we characterize galaxy formation in the current $\\Lambda$CDM cosmology using stellar mass function of galaxies a...

  6. Bayesian Lorentzian profile fitting using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo: An observer's approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gruberbauer, M; Weiss, W W

    2008-01-01

    Aims. Investigating stochastically driven pulsation puts strong requirements on the quality of (observed) pulsation frequency spectra, such as the accuracy of frequencies, amplitudes, and mode life times and -- important when fitting these parameters with models -- a realistic error estimate which can be quite different to the formal error. As has been shown by other authors, the method of fitting Lorentzian profiles to the power spectrum of time-resolved photometric or spectroscopic data via the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure delivers good approximations for these quantities. We, however, intend to demonstrate that a conservative Bayesian approach allows to treat this problem in a more consistent way. Methods. We derive a conservative Bayesian treatment for the probability of Lorentzian profiles being present in a power spectrum and describe its implementation via evaluating the probability density distribution of parameters by using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. In addition, ...

  7. Evaluating a Bayesian approach to improve accuracy of individual photographic identification methods using ecological distribution data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Stafford

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Photographic identification of individual organisms can be possible from natural body markings. Data from photo-ID can be used to estimate important ecological and conservation metrics such as population sizes, home ranges or territories. However, poor quality photographs or less well-studied individuals can result in a non-unique ID, potentially confounding several similar looking individuals. Here we present a Bayesian approach that uses known data about previous sightings of individuals at specific sites as priors to help assess the problems of obtaining a non-unique ID. Using a simulation of individuals with different confidence of correct ID we evaluate the accuracy of Bayesian modified (posterior probabilities. However, in most cases, the accuracy of identification decreases. Although this technique is unsuccessful, it does demonstrate the importance of computer simulations in testing such hypotheses in ecology.

  8. Sequential Bayesian Detection: A Model-Based Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J V

    2008-12-08

    Sequential detection theory has been known for a long time evolving in the late 1940's by Wald and followed by Middleton's classic exposition in the 1960's coupled with the concurrent enabling technology of digital computer systems and the development of sequential processors. Its development, when coupled to modern sequential model-based processors, offers a reasonable way to attack physics-based problems. In this chapter, the fundamentals of the sequential detection are reviewed from the Neyman-Pearson theoretical perspective and formulated for both linear and nonlinear (approximate) Gauss-Markov, state-space representations. We review the development of modern sequential detectors and incorporate the sequential model-based processors as an integral part of their solution. Motivated by a wealth of physics-based detection problems, we show how both linear and nonlinear processors can seamlessly be embedded into the sequential detection framework to provide a powerful approach to solving non-stationary detection problems.

  9. Transdimensional Bayesian approach to pulsar timing noise analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, J. A.; Cornish, N. J.

    2016-04-01

    The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for gravitational wave detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well-studied effects including radiometer noise, pulse-phase jitter noise, dispersion measure variations, and low-frequency spin noise. However, as pulsar timing data continue to improve, nonstationary and non-power-law noise terms are beginning to manifest which are not well modeled by current noise analysis techniques. In this work, we use a transdimensional approach to model these nonstationary and non-power-law effects through the use of a wavelet basis and an interpolation-based adaptive spectral modeling. In both cases, the number of wavelets and the number of control points in the interpolated spectrum are free parameters that are constrained by the data and then marginalized over in the final inferences, thus fully incorporating our ignorance of the noise model. We show that these new methods outperform standard techniques when nonstationary and non-power-law noise is present. We also show that these methods return results consistent with the standard analyses when no such signals are present.

  10. A Bayesian Approach to Risk Informed Performance Based Regulation for Digital I and C QA Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of applying Risk Informed Performance Based Regulation (RIPBR) is to reduce unnecessary conservatism existed in current regulations. This paper proposes a systematic way to find such unnecessary conservatism based on Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling technique. First, a Bayesian based QA process model is developed, and the correspondent event tree based on the BBN is then derived. Risk insight into different QA activities can thus be investigated by comparing their contribution to final quality to determine their necessity. Independent V and V, prescribed by RG 1.168, is selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. The proposed Bayesian approach appears to be very promising in supporting the RIPBR practice for digital I and C QA programs. Related issues and future work are also discussed. It is a consensus view between licensees and regulators that there may exists unnecessary conservatism in current digital I and C QA regulatory requirements. If such conservatism can be identified and reduced then the limited resources of both licensees and regulators can be utilized more effectively. The goal of RIPBR promoted by USNRC is to provide a generic regulatory framework to eliminate such conservatism in all NRC's regulatory activities (NRC, 1995). However, in order to take the advantage of RIPBR, one needs to develop techniques to identify unnecessary conservatism, and such techniques have not been fully established for digital I and C systems yet. This paper proposed a Bayesian-based approach to identifying unnecessary conservatism in current digital I and C QA program requirements. A QA program causal influence model is developed first, and then a correspondent event tree enumerating potential scenarios is derived based on this model. Thus risk insight into different QA activities can be investigated by comparing their contribution to scenario results. The QA activities that do not have significant impact on results

  11. Identification of information tonality based on Bayesian approach and neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Lande, D V

    2008-01-01

    A model of the identification of information tonality, based on Bayesian approach and neural networks was described. In the context of this paper tonality means positive or negative tone of both the whole information and its parts which are related to particular concepts. The method, its application is presented in the paper, is based on statistic regularities connected with the presence of definite lexemes in the texts. A distinctive feature of the method is its simplicity and versatility. At present ideologically similar approaches are widely used to control spam.

  12. Model‐Based Assessment of Alternative Study Designs in Pediatric Trials. Part II: Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smania, G; Baiardi, P; Ceci, A; Magni, P

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a pharmacokinetic‐pharmacodynamic based clinical trial simulation framework for evaluating the performance of a fixed‐sample Bayesian design (BD) and two alternative Bayesian sequential designs (BSDs) (i.e., a non‐hierarchical (NON‐H) and a semi‐hierarchical (SEMI‐H) one). Prior information was elicited from adult trials and weighted based on the expected similarity of response to treatment between the pediatric and adult populations. Study designs were evaluated in terms of: type I and II errors, sample size per arm (SS), trial duration (TD), and estimate precision. No substantial differences were observed between NON‐H and SEMI‐H. BSDs require, on average, smaller SS and TD compared to the BD, which, on the other hand, guarantees higher estimate precision. When large differences between children and adults are expected, BSDs can return very large SS. Bayesian approaches appear to outperform their frequentist counterparts in the design of pediatric trials even when little weight is given to prior information from adults. PMID:27530374

  13. A surrogate model enables a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of scatterometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scatterometry is an indirect optical method for the determination of photomask geometry parameters from scattered light intensities by solving an inverse problem. The Bayesian approach is a powerful method to solve the inverse problem. In the Bayesian framework estimates of parameters and associated uncertainties are obtained from posterior distributions. The determination the probability distribution is typically based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, in scatterometry the evaluation of MCMC steps require solutions of partial differential equations that are computationally expensive and application of MCMC methods is thus impractical. In this article we introduce a surrogate model for scatterometry based on polynomial chaos that can be treated by Bayesian inference. We compare the results of the surrogate model with rigorous finite element simulations and demonstrate its convergence. The accuracy reaches a value of lower than one percent for a sufficient fine mesh and the speed up amounts more than two order of magnitudes. Furthermore, we apply the surrogate model to MCMC calculations and we reconstruct geometry parameters of a photomask

  14. Applying a Bayesian Approach to Identification of Orthotropic Elastic Constants from Full Field Displacement Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Riche R.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge in the identification of material properties is handling different sources of uncertainty in the experiment and the modelling of the experiment for estimating the resulting uncertainty in the identified properties. Numerous improvements in identification methods have provided increasingly accurate estimates of various material properties. However, characterizing the uncertainty in the identified properties is still relatively crude. Different material properties obtained from a single test are not obtained with the same confidence. Typically the highest uncertainty is associated with respect to properties to which the experiment is the most insensitive. In addition, the uncertainty in different properties can be strongly correlated, so that obtaining only variance estimates may be misleading. A possible approach for handling the different sources of uncertainty and estimating the uncertainty in the identified properties is the Bayesian method. This method was introduced in the late 1970s in the context of identification [1] and has been applied since to different problems, notably identification of elastic constants from plate vibration experiments [2]-[4]. The applications of the method to these classical pointwise tests involved only a small number of measurements (typically ten natural frequencies in the previously cited vibration test which facilitated the application of the Bayesian approach. For identifying elastic constants, full field strain or displacement measurements provide a high number of measured quantities (one measurement per image pixel and hence a promise of smaller uncertainties in the properties. However, the high number of measurements represents also a major computational challenge in applying the Bayesian approach to full field measurements. To address this challenge we propose an approach based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD of the full fields in order to drastically reduce their

  15. A Bayesian Approach to Combine Landsat and ALOS PALSAR Time Series for Near Real-Time Deforestation Detection

    OpenAIRE

    Johannes Reiche; Sytze de Bruin; Dirk Hoekman; Jan Verbesselt; Martin Herold

    2015-01-01

    To address the need for timely information on newly deforested areas at medium resolution scale, we introduce a Bayesian approach to combine SAR and optical time series for near real-time deforestation detection. Once a new image of either of the input time series is available, the conditional probability of deforestation is computed using Bayesian updating, and deforestation events are indicated. Future observations are used to update the conditional probability of deforestation and, thus, t...

  16. A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a systemic decision approach with step-by-step procedures based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), aiming to provide guidelines for dynamic safety analysis of the tunnel-induced road surface damage over time. The proposed DBN-based approach can accurately illustrate the dynamic and updated feature of geological, design and mechanical variables as the construction progress evolves, in order to overcome deficiencies of traditional fault analysis methods. Adopting the predictive, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis techniques in the DBN inference, this approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward control respectively on a quantitative basis, and provide real-time support before and after an accident. A case study in relating to dynamic safety analysis in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, as well as its application potential. The relationships between the DBN-based and BN-based approaches are further discussed according to analysis results. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety analysis in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a dynamic project environment. - Highlights: • A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based approach for safety decision support is developed. • This approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward analysis and control. • A case concerning dynamic safety analysis in Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented. • DBN-based approach can perform a higher accuracy than traditional static BN-based approach

  17. Bayesian Multi-Energy Computed Tomography reconstruction approaches based on decomposition models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Multi-Energy Computed Tomography (MECT) makes it possible to get multiple fractions of basis materials without segmentation. In medical application, one is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical MECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic X-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam poly-chromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in Beam-Hardening Artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log pre-processing and the water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on non-linear forward models counting the beam poly-chromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a non-quadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.The performances of the proposed approach are analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also

  18. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  19. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian weighted least squares approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haddad, Khaled [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Building XB, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751 (Australia); Egodawatta, Prasanna [Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane 4001 (Australia); Rahman, Ataur [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Building XB, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751 (Australia); Goonetilleke, Ashantha, E-mail: a.goonetilleke@qut.edu.au [Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane 4001 (Australia)

    2013-04-01

    Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality datasets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares regression and Bayesian weighted least squares regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited datasets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling. - Highlights: ► Water quality data spans short time scales leading to significant model uncertainty. ► Assessment of uncertainty essential for informed decision making in water

  20. Bayesian approach for determination of energy response of some radiation detectors to neutrons

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cabal, Arango Gonzalo Alfonso; Spurný, František; Turek, Karel

    Praha : ČVUT v Praze, 2007, s. 166-167. ISBN 978-80-01-03901-4. [Dny radiační ochrany /29./. Kouty nad Desnou, Hrubý Jeseník (CZ), 05.11.2007-09.11.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GD202/05/H031; GA MŠk 1P05OC032 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Bayesian approach * radiation detectors * neutrons Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders

  1. Validation of Sustainable Development Practices Scale Using the Bayesian Approach to Item Response Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Hernani Merino

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There has been growing recognition of the importance of creating performance measurement tools for the economic, social and environmental management of micro and small enterprise (MSE. In this context, this study aims to validate an instrument to assess perceptions of sustainable development practices by MSEs by means of a Graded Response Model (GRM with a Bayesian approach to Item Response Theory (IRT. The results based on a sample of 506 university students in Peru, suggest that a valid measurement instrument was achieved. At the end of the paper, methodological and managerial contributions are presented.

  2. A Bayesian Approach to Jointly Estimate Tire Radii and Vehicle Trajectory

    OpenAIRE

    Özkan, Emre; Lundquist, Christian; Gustafsson, Fredrik

    2011-01-01

    High-precision estimation of vehicle tire radii is considered, based on measurements on individual wheel speeds and absolute position from a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The wheel speed measurements are subject to noise with time-varying covariance that depends mainly on the road surface. The novelty lies in a Bayesian approach to estimate online the time-varying radii and noise parameters using a marginalized particle filter, where no model approximations are needed such as in ...

  3. Crystalline nucleation in undercooled liquids: A Bayesian data-analysis approach for a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipponi, A.; Di Cicco, A.; Principi, E.

    2012-12-01

    A Bayesian data-analysis approach to data sets of maximum undercooling temperatures recorded in repeated melting-cooling cycles of high-purity samples is proposed. The crystallization phenomenon is described in terms of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process driven by a temperature-dependent sample nucleation rate J(T). The method was extensively tested by computer simulations and applied to real data for undercooled liquid Ge. It proved to be particularly useful in the case of scarce data sets where the usage of binned data would degrade the available experimental information.

  4. A new approach for supply chain risk management: Mapping SCOR into Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Abolghasemi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. SCRM has a close relationship with supply chain performance. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are either qualitative or quantitative. Supply chain operation reference (SCOR is a standard model for SCP evaluation which have uncertainty in its metrics. In This paper by combining qualitative and quantitative metrics of SCOR, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks. Design/methodology/approach: First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing uncertain metrics of SCOR model and then by quantifying them, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks (BNs and supply chain operations reference (SCOR in which making decision on uncertain variables will be done by predictive and diagnostic capabilities. Findings: After applying the proposed method in one of the biggest automotive companies in Iran, we identified key factors of supply chain performance based on SCOR model through predictive and diagnostic capability of Bayesian Networks. After sensitivity analysis, we find out that ‘Total cost’ and its criteria that include costs of labors, warranty, transportation and inventory have the widest range and most effect on supply chain performance. So, managers should take their importance into account for decision making. We can make decisions simply by running model in different situations. Research limitations/implications: A more precise model consisted of numerous factors but it is difficult and sometimes impossible to solve big models, if we insert all of them in a Bayesian model. We have adopted real world characteristics with our software and method abilities. On the other hand, fewer data exist for some

  5. Life cycle reliability assessment of new products—A Bayesian model updating approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The rapidly increasing pace and continuously evolving reliability requirements of new products have made life cycle reliability assessment of new products an imperative yet difficult work. While much work has been done to separately estimate reliability of new products in specific stages, a gap exists in carrying out life cycle reliability assessment throughout all life cycle stages. We present a Bayesian model updating approach (BMUA) for life cycle reliability assessment of new products. Novel features of this approach are the development of Bayesian information toolkits by separately including “reliability improvement factor” and “information fusion factor”, which allow the integration of subjective information in a specific life cycle stage and the transition of integrated information between adjacent life cycle stages. They lead to the unique characteristics of the BMUA in which information generated throughout life cycle stages are integrated coherently. To illustrate the approach, an application to the life cycle reliability assessment of a newly developed Gantry Machining Center is shown

  6. Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU; Jianfeng; ZHANG; Yuan; ZHANG; Qin; WANG; Lixian; ZHANG; Jigang

    2006-01-01

    It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.

  7. Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

    2016-08-01

    In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population

  8. A hierarchical Bayesian-MAP approach to inverse problems in imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Raghu G.

    2016-07-01

    We present a novel approach to inverse problems in imaging based on a hierarchical Bayesian-MAP (HB-MAP) formulation. In this paper we specifically focus on the difficult and basic inverse problem of multi-sensor (tomographic) imaging wherein the source object of interest is viewed from multiple directions by independent sensors. Given the measurements recorded by these sensors, the problem is to reconstruct the image (of the object) with a high degree of fidelity. We employ a probabilistic graphical modeling extension of the compound Gaussian distribution as a global image prior into a hierarchical Bayesian inference procedure. Since the prior employed by our HB-MAP algorithm is general enough to subsume a wide class of priors including those typically employed in compressive sensing (CS) algorithms, HB-MAP algorithm offers a vehicle to extend the capabilities of current CS algorithms to include truly global priors. After rigorously deriving the regression algorithm for solving our inverse problem from first principles, we demonstrate the performance of the HB-MAP algorithm on Monte Carlo trials and on real empirical data (natural scenes). In all cases we find that our algorithm outperforms previous approaches in the literature including filtered back-projection and a variety of state-of-the-art CS algorithms. We conclude with directions of future research emanating from this work.

  9. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  10. Adaptive Methods within a Sequential Bayesian Approach for Structural Health Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Daniel W.

    Structural integrity is an important characteristic of performance for critical components used in applications such as aeronautics, materials, construction and transportation. When appraising the structural integrity of these components, evaluation methods must be accurate. In addition to possessing capability to perform damage detection, the ability to monitor the level of damage over time can provide extremely useful information in assessing the operational worthiness of a structure and in determining whether the structure should be repaired or removed from service. In this work, a sequential Bayesian approach with active sensing is employed for monitoring crack growth within fatigue-loaded materials. The monitoring approach is based on predicting crack damage state dynamics and modeling crack length observations. Since fatigue loading of a structural component can change while in service, an interacting multiple model technique is employed to estimate probabilities of different loading modes and incorporate this information in the crack length estimation problem. For the observation model, features are obtained from regions of high signal energy in the time-frequency plane and modeled for each crack length damage condition. Although this observation model approach exhibits high classification accuracy, the resolution characteristics can change depending upon the extent of the damage. Therefore, several different transmission waveforms and receiver sensors are considered to create multiple modes for making observations of crack damage. Resolution characteristics of the different observation modes are assessed using a predicted mean squared error criterion and observations are obtained using the predicted, optimal observation modes based on these characteristics. Calculation of the predicted mean square error metric can be computationally intensive, especially if performed in real time, and an approximation method is proposed. With this approach, the real time

  11. Heart rate variability estimation in photoplethysmography signals using Bayesian learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alqaraawi, Ahmed; Alwosheel, Ahmad; Alasaad, Amr

    2016-06-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) has become a marker for various health and disease conditions. Photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors integrated in wearable devices such as smart watches and phones are widely used to measure heart activities. HRV requires accurate estimation of time interval between consecutive peaks in the PPG signal. However, PPG signal is very sensitive to motion artefact which may lead to poor HRV estimation if false peaks are detected. In this Letter, the authors propose a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian learning to better estimate HRV from PPG signal recorded by wearable devices and enhance the performance of the automatic multi scale-based peak detection (AMPD) algorithm used for peak detection. The authors' experiments show that their approach enhances the performance of the AMPD algorithm in terms of number of HRV related metrics such as sensitivity, positive predictive value, and average temporal resolution. PMID:27382483

  12. Combining bayesian source imaging with equivalent dipole approach to solve the intracranial EEG source localization problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cam, Steven; Caune, Vairis; Ranta, Radu; Korats, Gundars; Louis-Dorr, Valerie

    2015-08-01

    The brain source localization problem has been extensively studied in the past years, yielding a large panel of methodologies, each bringing their own strengths and weaknesses. Combining several of these approaches might help in enhancing their respective performance. Our study is carried out in the particular context of intracranial recordings, with the objective to explain the measurements based on a reduced number of dipolar activities. We take benefit of the sparse nature of the Bayesian approaches to separate the noise from the source space, and to distinguish between several source contributions on the electrodes. This first step provides accurate estimates of the dipole projections, which can be used as an entry to an equivalent current dipole fitting procedure. We demonstrate on simulations that the localization results are significantly enhanced by this post-processing step when up to five dipoles are activated simultaneously. PMID:26736344

  13. Default Bayesian analysis for multi-way tables: a data-augmentation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Polson, Nicholas G

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a strategy for regularized estimation in multi-way contingency tables, which are common in meta-analyses and multi-center clinical trials. Our approach is based on data augmentation, and appeals heavily to a novel class of Polya-Gamma distributions. Our main contributions are to build up the relevant distributional theory and to demonstrate three useful features of this data-augmentation scheme. First, it leads to simple EM and Gibbs-sampling algorithms for posterior inference, circumventing the need for analytic approximations, numerical integration, Metropolis--Hastings, or variational methods. Second, it allows modelers much more flexibility when choosing priors, which have traditionally come from the Dirichlet or logistic-normal family. For example, our approach allows users to incorporate Bayesian analogues of classical penalized-likelihood techniques (e.g. the lasso or bridge) in computing regularized estimates for log-odds ratios. Finally, our data-augmentation scheme naturally sugg...

  14. A hierarchical Bayesian approach for reconstructing the Initial Mass Function of Single Stellar Populations

    CERN Document Server

    Dries, M; Koopmans, L V E

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies based on the integrated light of distant galaxies suggest that the initial mass function (IMF) might not be universal. Variations of the IMF with galaxy type and/or formation time may have important consequences for our understanding of galaxy evolution. We have developed a new stellar population synthesis (SPS) code specifically designed to reconstruct the IMF. We implement a novel approach combining regularization with hierarchical Bayesian inference. Within this approach we use a parametrized IMF prior to regulate a direct inference of the IMF. This direct inference gives more freedom to the IMF and allows the model to deviate from parametrized models when demanded by the data. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques to reconstruct the best parameters for the IMF prior, the age, and the metallicity of a single stellar population. We present our code and apply our model to a number of mock single stellar populations with different ages, metallicities, and IMFs. When systematic unc...

  15. An evaluation of tsunami hazard using Bayesian approach in the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, R. B. S.; Tsapanos, T. M.; Tripathi, J. N.; Chopra, S.

    2013-05-01

    hazard assessment in the Indian Ocean region. Tsunami hazard is calculated in the Indian Ocean using Bayesian approach. The maximum tsunami intensity is estimated as 5.39 ± 0.30 for Indian Ocean. Tsunami intensity for 50 years with 90% probability is estimated as 4.96 ± 0.25. The tsunami activity rate is estimated as 0.08events/year and β-value as 0.81 ± 0.19. Tsunami hazard is also calculated for Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region.

  16. A unifying probabilistic Bayesian approach to derive electron density from MRI for radiation therapy treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MRI significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of target delineation in radiation therapy for certain tumors due to its superior soft tissue contrast compared to CT. A treatment planning process with MRI as the sole imaging modality will eliminate systematic CT/MRI co-registration errors, reduce cost and radiation exposure, and simplify clinical workflow. However, MRI lacks the key electron density information necessary for accurate dose calculation and generating reference images for patient setup. The purpose of this work is to develop a unifying method to derive electron density from standard T1-weighted MRI. We propose to combine both intensity and geometry information into a unifying probabilistic Bayesian framework for electron density mapping. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probability density functions (PDFs) of electron density given its: (1) T1-weighted MRI intensity, and (2) geometry in a reference anatomy, obtained by deformable image registration between the MRI of the atlas and test patient. The two conditional PDFs containing intensity and geometry information are combined into a unifying posterior PDF, whose mean value corresponds to the optimal electron density value under the mean-square error criterion. We evaluated the algorithm’s accuracy of electron density mapping and its ability to detect bone in the head for eight patients, using an additional patient as the atlas or template. Mean absolute HU error between the estimated and true CT, as well as receiver operating characteristics for bone detection (HU > 200) were calculated. The performance was compared with a global intensity approach based on T1 and no density correction (set whole head to water). The proposed technique significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 126, compared with 139 for deformable registration (p = 2  ×  10−4), 283 for the intensity approach (p = 2  ×  10−6) and 282 without

  17. Exploring the Influence of Neighborhood Characteristics on Burglary Risks: A Bayesian Random Effects Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.

  18. Quantifying uncertainty and resilience on coral reefs using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coral reefs are rapidly deteriorating globally. The contemporary management option favors managing for resilience to provide reefs with the capacity to tolerate human-induced disturbances. Yet resilience is most commonly defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances without changing fundamental processes or functionality. Quantifying no change, or the uncertainty of a null hypothesis, is nonsensical using frequentist statistics, but is achievable using a Bayesian approach. This study outlines a practical Bayesian framework that quantifies the resilience of coral reefs using two inter-related models. The first model examines the functionality of coral reefs in the context of their reef-building capacity, whereas the second model examines the recovery rates of coral cover after disturbances. Quantifying intrinsic rates of increase in coral cover and habitat-specific, steady-state equilibria are useful proxies of resilience. A reduction in the intrinsic rate of increase following a disturbance, or the slowing of recovery over time, can be useful indicators of stress; a change in the steady-state equilibrium suggests a phase shift. Quantifying the uncertainty of key reef-building processes and recovery parameters, and comparing these parameters against benchmarks, facilitates the detection of loss of resilience and provides signals of imminent change. (letter)

  19. Time-calibrated phylogenomics of the classical swine fever viruses: genome-wide bayesian coalescent approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taehyung Kwon

    Full Text Available The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV, the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF, has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI and Maximum likelihood (ML, the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, and 3.4. Subgenotype 1.1 is divided into 3 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, 2.1 into 4 groups, 2.3 into 2 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, and subgenotype 1.2 and 3.4 consisted of one isolate each. We did not observe an apparent temporal or geographical relationship between isolates. Of the 14 genomic regions, NS4B showed the most powerful phylogenetic signal. Results of this evolutionary study using Bayesian coalescent approach indicate that CSFV has evolved at a rate of 13×.010-4 substitutions per site per year. The most recent common ancestor of CSFV appeared 2770.2 years ago, which was about 8000 years after pig domestication. The effective population size of CSFV underwent a slow increase until the 1950s, after which it has remained constant.

  20. Time-calibrated phylogenomics of the classical swine fever viruses: genome-wide bayesian coalescent approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Taehyung; Yoon, Sook Hee; Kim, Kyu-Won; Caetano-Anolles, Kelsey; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal

    2015-01-01

    The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF), has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI) and Maximum likelihood (ML), the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, and 3.4). Subgenotype 1.1 is divided into 3 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, 2.1 into 4 groups, 2.3 into 2 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, and subgenotype 1.2 and 3.4 consisted of one isolate each. We did not observe an apparent temporal or geographical relationship between isolates. Of the 14 genomic regions, NS4B showed the most powerful phylogenetic signal. Results of this evolutionary study using Bayesian coalescent approach indicate that CSFV has evolved at a rate of 13×.010-4 substitutions per site per year. The most recent common ancestor of CSFV appeared 2770.2 years ago, which was about 8000 years after pig domestication. The effective population size of CSFV underwent a slow increase until the 1950s, after which it has remained constant. PMID:25815768

  1. Assessment of successful smoking cessation by psychological factors using the Bayesian network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaorong; Li, Suyun; Pan, Lulu; Wang, Qiang; Li, Huijie; Han, Mingkui; Zhang, Nan; Jiang, Fan; Jia, Chongqi

    2016-07-01

    The association between psychological factors and smoking cessation is complicated and inconsistent in published researches, and the joint effect of psychological factors on smoking cessation is unclear. This study explored how psychological factors jointly affect the success of smoking cessation using a Bayesian network approach. A community-based case control study was designed with 642 adult male successful smoking quitters as the cases, and 700 adult male failed smoking quitters as the controls. General self-efficacy (GSE), trait coping style (positive-trait coping style (PTCS) and negative-trait coping style (NTCS)) and self-rating anxiety (SA) were evaluated by GSE Scale, Trait Coping Style Questionnaire and SA Scale, respectively. Bayesian network was applied to evaluate the relationship between psychological factors and successful smoking cessation. The local conditional probability table of smoking cessation indicated that different joint conditions of psychological factors led to different outcomes for smoking cessation. Among smokers with high PTCS, high NTCS and low SA, only 36.40% successfully quitted smoking. However, among smokers with low pack-years of smoking, high GSE, high PTCS and high SA, 63.64% successfully quitted smoking. Our study indicates psychological factors jointly influence smoking cessation outcome. According to different joint situations, different solutions should be developed to control tobacco in practical intervention. PMID:26264661

  2. Forecasting Rainfall Time Series with stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Rodriguez Rivero

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The annual estimate of the availability of the amount of water for the agricultural sector has become a lifetime in places where rainfall is scarce, as is the case of northwestern Argentina. This work proposes to model and simulate monthly rainfall time series from one geographical location of Catamarca, Valle El Viejo Portezuelo. In this sense, the time series prediction is mathematical and computational modelling series provided by monthly cumulative rainfall, which has stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach. We propose to use an algorithm based on artificial neural networks (ANNs using the Bayesian inference. The result of the prediction consists of 20% of the provided data consisting of 2000 to 2010. A new analysis for modelling, simulation and computational prediction of cumulative rainfall from one geographical location is well presented. They are used as data information, only the historical time series of daily flows measured in mmH2O. Preliminary results of the annual forecast in mmH2O with a prediction horizon of one year and a half are presented, 18 months, respectively. The methodology employs artificial neural network based tools, statistical analysis and computer to complete the missing information and knowledge of the qualitative and quantitative behavior. They also show some preliminary results with different prediction horizons of the proposed filter and its comparison with the performance Gaussian process filter used in the literature.

  3. Application of a Bayesian approach to stochastic delineation of capture zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyen, L; Dessalegn, A M; De Smedt, F; Gebremeskel, S; Batelaan, O

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian Monte Carlo method for evaluating the uncertainty in the delineation of well capture zones and its application to a wellfield in a heterogeneous, multiaquifer system. In the method presented, Bayes' rule is used to update prior distributions for the unknown parameters of the stochastic model for the hydraulic conductivity, and to calculate probability-based weights for parameter realizations using head residuals. These weights are then assigned to the corresponding capture zones obtained using forward particle tracking. Statistical analysis of the set of weighted protection zones results in a probability distribution for the capture zones. The suitability of the Bayesian stochastic method for a multilayered system is investigated, using the wellfield Het Rot at Nieuwrode, Belgium, located in a three-layered aquifer system, as an example. The hydraulic conductivity of the production aquifer is modeled as a spatially correlated random function with uncertain parameters. The aquitard and overlying unconfined aquifer are assigned random, homogeneous conductivities. The stochastic results are compared with deterministic capture zones obtained with a calibrated model for the area. The predictions of the stochastic approach are more conservative and indicate that parameter uncertainty should be taken into account in the delineation of well capture zones. PMID:15318777

  4. Nuclear mass predictions for the crustal composition of neutron stars: A Bayesian neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.; Prosper, H. B.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure value, nuclear mass models are essential for astrophysical applications, such as r -process nucleosynthesis and neutron-star structure. Purpose: To overcome the intrinsic limitations of existing "state-of-the-art" mass models through a refinement based on a Bayesian neural network (BNN) formalism. Methods: A novel BNN approach is implemented with the goal of optimizing mass residuals between theory and experiment. Results: A significant improvement (of about 40%) in the mass predictions of existing models is obtained after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results are now accompanied by proper statistical errors. Finally, by constructing a "world average" of these predictions, a mass model is obtained that is used to predict the composition of the outer crust of a neutron star. Conclusions: The power of the Bayesian neural network method has been successfully demonstrated by a systematic improvement in the accuracy of the predictions of nuclear masses. Extension to other nuclear observables is a natural next step that is currently under investigation.

  5. Bayesian clustering of fuzzy feature vectors using a quasi-likelihood approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marttinen, Pekka; Tang, Jing; De Baets, Bernard; Dawyndt, Peter; Corander, Jukka

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian model-based classifiers, both unsupervised and supervised, have been studied extensively and their value and versatility have been demonstrated on a wide spectrum of applications within science and engineering. A majority of the classifiers are built on the assumption of intrinsic discreteness of the considered data features or on the discretization of them prior to the modeling. On the other hand, Gaussian mixture classifiers have also been utilized to a large extent for continuous features in the Bayesian framework. Often the primary reason for discretization in the classification context is the simplification of the analytical and numerical properties of the models. However, the discretization can be problematic due to its \\textit{ad hoc} nature and the decreased statistical power to detect the correct classes in the resulting procedure. We introduce an unsupervised classification approach for fuzzy feature vectors that utilizes a discrete model structure while preserving the continuous characteristics of data. This is achieved by replacing the ordinary likelihood by a binomial quasi-likelihood to yield an analytical expression for the posterior probability of a given clustering solution. The resulting model can be justified from an information-theoretic perspective. Our method is shown to yield highly accurate clusterings for challenging synthetic and empirical data sets. PMID:19029547

  6. A Bayesian approach to the ICH Q8 definition of design space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, John J

    2008-01-01

    Manufacturers of pharmaceuticals and biopharmaceuticals are facing increased regulatory pressure to understand how their manufacturing processes work and to be able to quantify the reliability and robustness of their manufacturing processes. In particular, the ICH Q8 guidance has introduced the concept of design space. The ICH Q8 defines design space as "the multidimensional combination and interaction of input variables (e.g., material attributes) and process parameters that have been demonstrated to provide assurance of quality." However, relatively little has been put forth to date on how to construct a design space from data composed of such variables. This study presents a Bayesian approach to design space based upon a type of credible region first appearing in Peterson's work.This study considers the issues of constructing a Bayesian design space, design space reliability, the inclusion of process noise variables, and utilization of prior information, as well as an outline for organizing information about a design space so that manufacturing engineers can make informed changes as may be needed within the design space. PMID:18781528

  7. Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Ranjan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases. Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures. 

  8. A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions. PMID:26098967

  9. Dynamic probability evaluation of safety levels of earth-rockfill dams using Bayesian approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zi-wu FAN; Shu-hai JIANG; Ming ZHANG

    2009-01-01

    In order to accurately predict and control the aging process of dams, new information should be collected continuously to renew the quantitative evaluation of dam safety levels. Owing to the complex structural characteristics of dams, it is quite difficult to predict the time-varying factors affecting their safety levels. It is not feasible to employ dynamic reliability indices to evaluate the actual safety levels of dams. Based on the relevant regulations for dam safety classification in China, a dynamic probability description of dam safety levels was developed. Using the Bayesian approach and effective information mining, as well as real-time information, this study achieved more rational evaluation and prediction of dam safety levels. With the Bayesian expression of discrete stochastic variables, the a priori probabilities of the dam safety levels determined by experts were combined with the likelihood probability of the real-time check information, and the probability information for the evaluation of dam safety levels was renewed. The probability index was then applied to dam rehabilitation decision-making. This method helps reduce the difficulty and uncertainty of the evaluation of dam safety levels and complies with the current safe decision-making regulations for dams in China. It also enhances the application of current risk analysis methods for dam safety levels.

  10. A risk management process for reinforced concrete structures by coupling modelling, monitoring and Bayesian approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of steel corrosion on the durability of reinforced concrete structures has since a long time been a major concern in civil engineering. The main electrochemical mechanisms of the steel corrosion are know well known. The material and structure degradation is attributed to the progressive formation of an expansive corrosion product at the steel-concrete interface. To assess quantitatively the structure lifetime, a two-stage service life model has been accepted widely. So far, the research attention is mainly given to the corrosion in an un-cracked concrete. However. practically one is often confronted to the reinforcement corrosion in an already cracked concrete. How to quantify the corrosion risk is of great interest for the long term durability of these cracked structures. To this end, this paper proposes a service life modeling for the corrosion process by carbonation in a cracked or un-cracked concrete depending on the observation or monitoring data available. Some recent experimental investigations are used to calibrate the models. Then, the models are applied to a shell structure to quantify the corrosion process and determine the optimal maintenance strategy. As corrosion processes are very difficult to model and subjected to material and environmental random variations, an example of structure reassessment is presented taking into account in situ information by the mean of Bayesian approaches. The coupling of monitoring, modelling and updating leads to a new global maintenance strategy of infrastructure. In conclusion: This paper presents an unified methodology coupling predictive models, observations and Bayesian approaches in order to assess the degradation degree of an ageing structure. The particular case of corrosion is treated on an innovative way by the development of a service life model taking into account cracking effects on the kinetics of the phenomena. At a material level, the dominant factors are the crack opening and the crack nature

  11. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J; McCauley, Lisa A; Wiltermuth, Mark T

    2016-05-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet-dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems. PMID:27217947

  12. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  13. Bayesian data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gelman, Andrew; Stern, Hal S; Dunson, David B; Vehtari, Aki; Rubin, Donald B

    2013-01-01

    FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCEProbability and InferenceSingle-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian ApproachesHierarchical ModelsFUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSISModel Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding ModelsModeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision AnalysisADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional ApproximationsREGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear

  14. An urban flood risk assessment method using the Bayesian Network approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra

    Flooding is one of the most damaging natural hazards to human societies. Recent decades have shown that flooding constitutes major threats worldwide, and due to anticipated climate change the occurrence of damaging flood events is expected to increase. Urban areas are especially vulnerable to...... flood risk scoping, flood risk assessment (FRA), and adaptation implementation and involves an ongoing process of assessment, reassessment, and response. This thesis mainly focuses on the FRA phase of FRM. FRA includes hazard analysis and impact assessment (combined called a risk analysis), adaptation...... Bayesian Network (BN) approach is developed, and the method is exemplified in an urban catchment. BNs have become an increasingly popular method for describing complex systems and aiding decision-making under uncertainty. In environmental management, BNs have mainly been utilized in ecological assessments...

  15. A Bayesian approach to quantifying uncertainty from experimental noise in DEER spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Thomas H.; Stoll, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Double Electron-Electron Resonance (DEER) spectroscopy is a solid-state pulse Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) experiment that measures distances between unpaired electrons, most commonly between protein-bound spin labels separated by 1.5-8 nm. From the experimental data, a distance distribution P (r) is extracted using Tikhonov regularization. The disadvantage of this method is that it does not directly provide error bars for the resulting P (r) , rendering correct interpretation difficult. Here we introduce a Bayesian statistical approach that quantifies uncertainty in P (r) arising from noise and numerical regularization. This method provides credible intervals (error bars) of P (r) at each r . This allows practitioners to answer whether or not small features are significant, whether or not apparent shoulders are significant, and whether or not two distance distributions are significantly different from each other. In addition, the method quantifies uncertainty in the regularization parameter.

  16. Spectro-photometric distances to stars: a general-purpose Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Santiago, Basílio X; Anders, Friedrich; Chiappini, Cristina; Girardi, Léo; Rocha-Pinto, Helio J; Balbinot, Eduardo; da Costa, Luiz N; Maia, Marcio A G; Schultheis, Mathias; Steinmetz, Matthias; Miglio, Andrea; Montalbán, Josefina; Schneider, Donald P; Beers, Timothy C; Frinchaboy, Peter M; Lee, Young Sun; Zasowski, Gail

    2016-01-01

    We have developed a procedure that estimates distances to stars using measured spectroscopic and photometric quantities. It employs a Bayesian approach to build the probability distribution function over stellar evolutionary models given the data, delivering estimates of expected distance for each star individually. Our method provides several alternative distance estimates for each star in the output, along with their associated uncertainties. The code was first tested on simulations, successfully recovering input distances to mock stars with errors that scale with the uncertainties in the adopted spectro-photometric parameters, as expected. The code was then validated by comparing our distance estimates to parallax measurements from the Hipparcos mission for nearby stars (< 60 pc), to asteroseismic distances of CoRoT red giant stars, and to known distances of well-studied open and globular clusters. The photometric data of these reference samples cover both the optical and near infra-red wavelengths. The...

  17. Introducing a Bayesian Approach to Determining Degree of Fit With Existing Rorschach Norms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giromini, Luciano; Viglione, Donald J; McCullaugh, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    This article offers a new methodological approach to investigate the degree of fit between an independent sample and 2 existing sets of norms. Specifically, with a new adaptation of a Bayesian method, we developed a user-friendly procedure to compare the mean values of a given sample to those of 2 different sets of Rorschach norms. To illustrate our technique, we used a small, U.S. community sample of 80 adults and tested whether it resembled more closely the standard Comprehensive System norms (CS 600; Exner, 2003), or a recently introduced, internationally based set of Rorschach norms (Meyer, Erdberg, & Shaffer, 2007 ). Strengths and limitations of this new statistical technique are discussed. PMID:25257792

  18. Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning II - A Bayesian Approach to Systematic Error Correction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Jeffrey C; Van Cleve, Jeffrey E; Jenkins, Jon M; Barclay, Thomas S; Fanelli, Michael N; Girouard, Forrest R; Kolodziejczak, Jeffery J; McCauliff, Sean D; Morris, Robert L; Twicken, Joseph D

    2012-01-01

    With the unprecedented photometric precision of the Kepler Spacecraft, significant systematic and stochastic errors on transit signal levels are observable in the Kepler photometric data. These errors, which include discontinuities, outliers, systematic trends and other instrumental signatures, obscure astrophysical signals. The Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC) module of the Kepler data analysis pipeline tries to remove these errors while preserving planet transits and other astrophysically interesting signals. The completely new noise and stellar variability regime observed in Kepler data poses a significant problem to standard cotrending methods such as SYSREM and TFA. Variable stars are often of particular astrophysical interest so the preservation of their signals is of significant importance to the astrophysical community. We present a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) approach where a subset of highly correlated and quiet stars is used to generate a cotrending basis vector set which is in turn used t...

  19. An efficient multiple particle filter based on the variational Bayesian approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa

    2015-12-07

    This paper addresses the filtering problem in large-dimensional systems, in which conventional particle filters (PFs) remain computationally prohibitive owing to the large number of particles needed to obtain reasonable performances. To overcome this drawback, a class of multiple particle filters (MPFs) has been recently introduced in which the state-space is split into low-dimensional subspaces, and then a separate PF is applied to each subspace. In this paper, we adopt the variational Bayesian (VB) approach to propose a new MPF, the VBMPF. The proposed filter is computationally more efficient since the propagation of each particle requires generating one (new) particle only, while in the standard MPFs a set of (children) particles needs to be generated. In a numerical test, the proposed VBMPF behaves better than the PF and MPF.

  20. Genomic Predictions of Obesity Related Phenotypes in a Pig model using GBLUP and Bayesian Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pant, Sameer Dinkar; Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, Luc;

    Whole genome prediction (WGP) based on GBLUP and Bayesian models (e.g. A, B, C and R) are routinely used in animal breeding but have not been well tested in a genetic mapping population that segregates for QTLs. In our pig model experiment, purebred Duroc and Yorkshire sows were crossed with...... to partition genomic variances attributable to different SNP groups based on their biological and functional role via systems genetics / biology approaches. We apply different methods to group SNPs: (i) functional relevance of SNPs for obesity based on data mining, (ii) groups based on positions in...... the genome, and significance based on previous genome-wide association study in the same data set. Preliminary results from our studies in production pigs indicate that BPL models have higher accuracy but more bias than GBLUP method, although using different power parameters has no effect on...

  1. Bayesian model-based approach for developing a river water quality index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Zalina Mohd; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Mengersen, Kerrie; Shitan, Mahendran; Juahir, Hafizan

    2014-09-01

    Six main pollutants have been previously identified by expert opinion to determine river condition in Malaysia. The pollutants were Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Suspended Solid (SS), potential of Hydrogen (pH) and Ammonia (AN). The selected variables together with the respective weights have been applied to calculate the water quality index of all rivers in Malaysia. However, the relative weights established in DOE-WQI formula are subjective in nature and not unanimously agreed upon, as indicated by different weight being proposed for the same variables by various panels of experts. Focusing on the Langat River, a Bayesian model-based approach was introduced for the first time in this study to obtain new objective relative weights. The new weights used in WQI calculation are shown to be capable of capturing similar distributions in water quality compared with the existing DOE-WQI.

  2. An empirical Bayesian and Buhlmann approach with non-homogenous Poisson process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda

    2015-12-01

    All general insurance companies in Indonesia have to adjust their current premium rates according to maximum and minimum limit rates in the new regulation established by the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan / OJK). In this research, we estimated premium rate by means of the Bayesian and the Buhlmann approach using historical claim frequency and claim severity in a five-group risk. We assumed a Poisson distributed claim frequency and a Normal distributed claim severity. Particularly, we used a non-homogenous Poisson process for estimating the parameters of claim frequency. We found that estimated premium rates are higher than the actual current rate. Regarding to the OJK upper and lower limit rates, the estimates among the five-group risk are varied; some are in the interval and some are out of the interval.

  3. Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

    2015-12-01

    Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

  4. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian weighted least squares approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Khaled; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Rahman, Ataur; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2013-04-01

    Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality datasets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares regression and Bayesian weighted least squares regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited datasets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling. PMID:23454702

  5. A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Al Lozi, Rawan; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O; Bradley, Jeffrey D; El Naqa, Issam, E-mail: elnaqa@wustl.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology, Washington University School of Medicine, MO 63110 (United States)

    2011-03-21

    Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

  6. What would judgment and decision making research be like if we took a Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Matthews

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Judgment and decision making research overwhelmingly uses null hypothesis significance testing as the basis for statistical inference. This article examines an alternative, Bayesian approach which emphasizes the choice between two competing hypotheses and quantifies the balance of evidence provided by the data---one consequence of which is that experimental results may be taken to strongly favour the null hypothesis. We apply a recently-developed ``Bayesian $t$-test'' to existing studies of the anchoring effect in judgment, and examine how the change in approach affects both the tone of hypothesis testing and the substantive conclusions that one draws. We compare the Bayesian approach with Fisherian and Neyman-Pearson testing, examining its relationship to conventional $p$-values, the influence of effect size, and the importance of prior beliefs about the likely state of nature. The results give a sense of how Bayesian hypothesis testing might be applied to judgment and decision making research, and of both the advantages and challenges that a shift to this approach would entail.

  7. A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

  8. Controlling the degree of caution in statistical inference with the Bayesian and frequentist approaches as opposite extremes

    CERN Document Server

    Bickel, David R

    2011-01-01

    In statistical practice, whether a Bayesian or frequentist approach is used in inference depends not only on the availability of prior information but also on the attitude taken toward partial prior information, with frequentists tending to be more cautious than Bayesians. The proposed framework defines that attitude in terms of a specified amount of caution, thereby enabling data analysis at the level of caution desired and on the basis of any prior information. The caution parameter represents the attitude toward partial prior information in much the same way as a loss function represents the attitude toward risk. When there is very little prior information and nonzero caution, the resulting inferences correspond to those of the candidate confidence intervals and p-values that are most similar to the credible intervals and hypothesis probabilities of the specified Bayesian posterior. On the other hand, in the presence of a known physical distribution of the parameter, inferences are based only on the corres...

  9. On merging rainfall data from diverse sources using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Tarekegn, Tegegne

    2014-05-01

    Numerous studies have presented comparison of satellite rainfall products, such as from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), with rain gauge data and have concluded, in general, that the two sources of data are comparable at suitable space and time scales. The comparison is not a straightforward one as they employ different measurement techniques and are dependent on very different space-time scales of measurements. The number of available gauges in a catchment also influences the comparability and thus adds to the complexity. The TRMM rainfall data also has been directly used in hydrological modelling. As the space-time scale reduces so does the accuracy of these models. It seems that combining the two sources of rainfall data, or more sources of rainfall data, can enormously benefit hydrological studies. Various rainfall data, due to the differences in their space-time structure, contains information about the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall, which is not available to a single source of data. In order to harness this benefit we have developed a method of merging these two (or more) rainfall products under the framework of Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) principle. By applying this principle the rainfall data from the various sources can be combined to a single time series of rainfall data. The usefulness of the approach has been explored in a case study on Lake Tana Basin of Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. A 'leave one rain gauge out' cross validation technique was employed for evaluating the accuracy of the rainfall time series with rainfall interpolated from rain gauge data using Inverse Distance Weighting (referred to as IDW), TRMM and the fused data (BDF). The result showed that BDF prediction was better compared to the TRMM and IDW. Further evaluation of the three rainfall estimates was done by evaluating the capability in predicting observed stream flow using a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model using NAM. Visual inspection of the

  10. Bayesian Recovery of Clipped OFDM Signals: A Receiver-based Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Rabah, Abdullatif R.

    2013-05-01

    Recently, orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) has been adopted for high-speed wireless communications due to its robustness against multipath fading. However, one of the main fundamental drawbacks of OFDM systems is the high peak-to-average-power ratio (PAPR). Several techniques have been proposed for PAPR reduction. Most of these techniques require transmitter-based (pre-compensated) processing. On the other hand, receiver-based alternatives would save the power and reduce the transmitter complexity. By keeping this in mind, a possible approach is to limit the amplitude of the OFDM signal to a predetermined threshold and equivalently a sparse clipping signal is added. Then, estimating this clipping signal at the receiver to recover the original signal. In this work, we propose a Bayesian receiver-based low-complexity clipping signal recovery method for PAPR reduction. The method is able to i) effectively reduce the PAPR via simple clipping scheme at the transmitter side, ii) use Bayesian recovery algorithm to reconstruct the clipping signal at the receiver side by measuring part of subcarriers, iii) perform well in the absence of statistical information about the signal (e.g. clipping level) and the noise (e.g. noise variance), and at the same time iv is energy efficient due to its low complexity. Specifically, the proposed recovery technique is implemented in data-aided based. The data-aided method collects clipping information by measuring reliable 
data subcarriers, thus makes full use of spectrum for data transmission without the need for tone reservation. The study is extended further to discuss how to improve the recovery of the clipping signal utilizing some features of practical OFDM systems i.e., the oversampling and the presence of multiple receivers. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique over other recovery algorithms. The overall objective is to show that the receiver-based Bayesian technique is highly

  11. A user-friendly forest model with a multiplicative mathematical structure: a Bayesian approach to calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bagnara

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest models are being increasingly used to study ecosystem functioning, through the reproduction of carbon fluxes and productivity in very different forests all over the world. Over the last two decades, the need for simple and "easy to use" models for practical applications, characterized by few parameters and equations, has become clear, and some have been developed for this purpose. These models aim to represent the main drivers underlying forest ecosystem processes while being applicable to the widest possible range of forest ecosystems. Recently, it has also become clear that model performance should not be assessed only in terms of accuracy of estimations and predictions, but also in terms of estimates of model uncertainties. Therefore, the Bayesian approach has increasingly been applied to calibrate forest models, with the aim of estimating the uncertainty of their results, and of comparing their performances. Some forest models, considered to be user-friendly, rely on a multiplicative or quasi-multiplicative mathematical structure, which is known to cause problems during the calibration process, mainly due to high correlations between parameters. In a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling this is likely to impair the reaching of a proper convergence of the chains and the sampling from the correct posterior distribution. Here we show two methods to reach proper convergence when using a forest model with a multiplicative structure, applying different algorithms with different number of iterations during the Markov Chain Monte Carlo or a two-steps calibration. The results showed that recently proposed algorithms for adaptive calibration do not confer a clear advantage over the Metropolis–Hastings Random Walk algorithm for the forest model used here. Moreover, the calibration remains time consuming and mathematically difficult, so advantages of using a fast and user-friendly model can be lost due to the calibration

  12. Modelling developmental instability as the joint action of noise and stability: a Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lens Luc

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fluctuating asymmetry is assumed to measure individual and population level developmental stability. The latter may in turn show an association with stress, which can be observed through asymmetry-stress correlations. However, the recent literature does not support an ubiquitous relationship. Very little is known why some studies show relatively strong associations while others completely fail to find such a correlation. We propose a new Bayesian statistical framework to examine these associations Results We are considering developmental stability – i.e. the individual buffering capacity – as the biologically relevant trait and show that (i little variation in developmental stability can explain observed variation in fluctuating asymmetry when the distribution of developmental stability is highly skewed, and (ii that a previously developed tool (i.e. the hypothetical repeatability of fluctuating asymmetry contains only limited information about variation in developmental stability, which stands in sharp contrast to the earlier established close association between the repeatability and developmental instability. Conclusion We provide tools to generate valuable information about the distribution of between-individual variation in developmental stability. A simple linear transformation of a previous model lead to completely different conclusions. Thus, theoretical modelling of asymmetry and stability appears to be very sensitive to the scale of inference. More research is urgently needed to get better insights in the developmental mechanisms of noise and stability. In spite of the fact that the model is likely to represent an oversimplification of reality, the accumulation of new insights could be incorporated in the Bayesian statistical approach to obtain more reliable estimation.

  13. A fuzzy Bayesian network approach to quantify the human behaviour during an evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Ahmad, Nazihah

    2016-06-01

    Bayesian Network (BN) has been regarded as a successful representation of inter-relationship of factors affecting human behavior during an emergency. This paper is an extension of earlier work of quantifying the variables involved in the BN model of human behavior during an evacuation using a well-known direct probability elicitation technique. To overcome judgment bias and reduce the expert's burden in providing precise probability values, a new approach for the elicitation technique is required. This study proposes a new fuzzy BN approach for quantifying human behavior during an evacuation. Three major phases of methodology are involved, namely 1) development of qualitative model representing human factors during an evacuation, 2) quantification of BN model using fuzzy probability and 3) inferencing and interpreting the BN result. A case study of three inter-dependencies of human evacuation factors such as danger assessment ability, information about the threat and stressful conditions are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. This approach will serve as an alternative to the conventional probability elicitation technique in understanding the human behavior during an evacuation.

  14. Meta-analysis for 2 x 2 tables: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, J B

    1992-01-30

    This paper develops and implements a fully Bayesian approach to meta-analysis, in which uncertainty about effects in distinct but comparable studies is represented by an exchangeable prior distribution. Specifically, hierarchical normal models are used, along with a parametrization that allows a unified approach to deal easily with both clinical trial and case-control study data. Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior distributions for parameters of interest, integrating out the unknown parameters of the exchangeable prior or 'random effects' distribution. The approach is illustrated with two examples, the first involving a data set on the effect of beta-blockers after myocardial infarction, and the second based on a classic data set comprising 14 case-control studies on the effects of smoking on lung cancer. In both examples, rather different conclusions from those previously published are obtained. In particular, it is claimed that widely used methods for meta-analysis, which involve complete pooling of 'O-E' values, lead to understatement of uncertainty in the estimation of overall or typical effect size. PMID:1349763

  15. A Bayesian approach to PET reconstruction using image-modeling Gibbs priors: Implementation and comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We demonstrate that (i) classical methods of image reconstruction from projections can be improved upon by considering the output of such a method as a distorted version of the original image and applying a Bayesian approach to estimate from it the original image (based on a model of distortion and on a Gibbs distribution as the prior) and (ii) by selecting an open-quotes image-modelingclose quotes prior distribution (i.e., one which is such that it is likely that a random sample from it shares important characteristics of the images of the application area) one can improve over another Gibbs prior formulated using only pairwise interactions. We illustrate our approach using simulated Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data from realistic brain phantoms. Since algorithm performance ultimately depends on the diagnostic task being performed. we examine a number of different medically relevant figures of merit to give a fair comparison. Based on a training-and-testing evaluation strategy, we demonstrate that statistically significant improvements can be obtained using the proposed approach

  16. A Bayesian approach to PET reconstruction using image-modeling Gibbs priors: Implementation and comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, M.T. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Herman, G.T. [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Levitan, E. [Technion, Haifa (Israel)

    1996-12-31

    We demonstrate that (i) classical methods of image reconstruction from projections can be improved upon by considering the output of such a method as a distorted version of the original image and applying a Bayesian approach to estimate from it the original image (based on a model of distortion and on a Gibbs distribution as the prior) and (ii) by selecting an {open_quotes}image-modeling{close_quotes} prior distribution (i.e., one which is such that it is likely that a random sample from it shares important characteristics of the images of the application area) one can improve over another Gibbs prior formulated using only pairwise interactions. We illustrate our approach using simulated Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data from realistic brain phantoms. Since algorithm performance ultimately depends on the diagnostic task being performed. we examine a number of different medically relevant figures of merit to give a fair comparison. Based on a training-and-testing evaluation strategy, we demonstrate that statistically significant improvements can be obtained using the proposed approach.

  17. A Bayesian Game-Theoretic Approach for Distributed Resource Allocation in Fading Multiple Access Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoning He

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian game-theoretic model is developed to design and analyze the resource allocation problem in K-user fading multiple access channels (MACs, where the users are assumed to selfishly maximize their average achievable rates with incomplete information about the fading channel gains. In such a game-theoretic study, the central question is whether a Bayesian equilibrium exists, and if so, whether the network operates efficiently at the equilibrium point. We prove that there exists exactly one Bayesian equilibrium in our game. Furthermore, we study the network sum-rate maximization problem by assuming that the users coordinate according to a symmetric strategy profile. This result also serves as an upper bound for the Bayesian equilibrium. Finally, simulation results are provided to show the network efficiency at the unique Bayesian equilibrium and to compare it with other strategies.

  18. Cyclist activity and injury risk analysis at signalized intersections: a Bayesian modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Jillian; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Morency, Patrick

    2013-10-01

    This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003-2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50-800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes

  19. A multinomial logit model-Bayesian network hybrid approach for driver injury severity analyses in rear-end crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Tarefder, Rafiqul; Ma, Jianming; Wei, Heng; Guan, Hongzhi

    2015-07-01

    Rear-end crash is one of the most common types of traffic crashes in the U.S. A good understanding of its characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. Previously, both multinomial Logit models and Bayesian network methods have been used in crash modeling and analysis, respectively, although each of them has its own application restrictions and limitations. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed to combine multinomial logit models and Bayesian network methods for comprehensively analyzing driver injury severities in rear-end crashes based on state-wide crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. A multinomial logit model is developed to investigate and identify significant contributing factors for rear-end crash driver injury severities classified into three categories: no injury, injury, and fatality. Then, the identified significant factors are utilized to establish a Bayesian network to explicitly formulate statistical associations between injury severity outcomes and explanatory attributes, including driver behavior, demographic features, vehicle factors, geometric and environmental characteristics, etc. The test results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach performs reasonably well. The Bayesian network reference analyses indicate that the factors including truck-involvement, inferior lighting conditions, windy weather conditions, the number of vehicles involved, etc. could significantly increase driver injury severities in rear-end crashes. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to reduce rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance. PMID:25888994

  20. A Bayesian approach for solar resource potential assessment using satellite images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The need for a more sustainable and more protective development opens new possibilities for renewable energy. Among the different renewable energy sources, the direct conversion of sunlight into electricity by solar photovoltaic (PV) technology seems to be the most promising and represents a technically viable solution to energy demands. But implantation and deployment of PV energy need solar resource data for utility planning, accommodating grid capacity, and formulating future adaptive policies. Currently, the best approach to determine the solar resource at a given site is based on the use of satellite images. However, the computation of solar resource (non-linear process) from satellite images is unfortunately not straightforward. From a signal processing point of view, it falls within non-stationary, non-linear/non-Gaussian dynamical inverse problems. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach combining satellite images and in situ data. We propose original observation and transition functions taking advantages of the characteristics of both the involved type of data. A simulation study of solar irradiance is carried along with this method and a French Guiana solar resource potential map for year 2010 is given

  1. Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simbeye Jupiter S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

  2. Estimating basal properties of glaciers from surface measurements: a non-linear Bayesian inversion approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Raymond

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new approach to indirectly estimate basal properties of a glacier, i.e. bedrock topography and basal slipperiness, from observations of surface topography and surface velocities. We demonstrate how a maximum a posteriori estimate of basal conditions can be determined using a Bayesian inference approach in a combination with an analytical linearisation of the forward model. Using synthetic data we show that for non-linear media and non-linear sliding law only a few forward-step model evaluations are needed for convergence. The forward step is solved with a numerical finite-element model using the full Stokes equations. Forward Fréchet derivatives are approximated through analytical small-perturbation solutions. This approximation is a key feature of the method and the effects of this approximation on model performance are analyzed. The number of iterations needed for convergence increases with the amplitude of the basal perturbations, but generally less than ten iterations are needed.

  3. Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists’ preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Papić-Blagojević

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Marketing approach is associated to market conditions and achieving long term profitability of a company by satisfying consumers’ needs. This approach in tourism does not have to be related only to promoting one touristic destination, but is associated to relation between travel agency and its clients too. It considers that travel agencies adjust their offers to their clients’ needs. In that sense, it is important to analyze the behavior of tourists in the earlier periods with consideration of their preferences. Using Bayesian network, it could be graphically displayed the connection between tourists who have similar taste and relationships between them. On the other hand, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to rank tourist attractions, with also relying on past experience. In this paper we examine possible applications of these two models in tourism in Serbia. The example is hypothetical, but it will serve as a base for future research. Three types of tourism are chosen as a representative in Vojvodina: Cultural, Rural and Business tourism, because they are the bright spot of touristic development in this area. Applied on these forms, analytic hierarchy process has shown its strength in predicting tourists’ preferences.

  4. Application of the Bayesian approach for derivation of PDFs for concentration ratio values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Concentration ratios (CRs) are used to derive activity concentrations in wild plants and animals. Usually, compilations of CR values encompass a wide range of element–organism combinations, extracted from different studies with statistical information reported at varying degrees of detail. To produce a more robust estimation of distribution parameters, data from different studies are normally pooled using classical statistical methods. However, there is inherent subjectivity involved in pooling CR data in the sense that there is a tacit assumption that the CRs under any arbitrarily defined biota category belong to the same population. Here, Bayesian inference has been introduced as an alternative way of making estimates of distribution parameters of CRs. This approach, in contrast to classical methods, is more flexible and also allows us to define the various assumptions required, when combining data, in a more explicit manner. Taking selected data from the recently compiled wildlife transfer database ( (http://www.wildlifetransferdatabase.org/)) as a working example, attempts are made to refine the pooling approaches previously used and to consider situations when empirical data are limited

  5. A Bayesian approach to efficient differential allocation for resampling-based significance testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soi Sameer

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale statistical analyses have become hallmarks of post-genomic era biological research due to advances in high-throughput assays and the integration of large biological databases. One accompanying issue is the simultaneous estimation of p-values for a large number of hypothesis tests. In many applications, a parametric assumption in the null distribution such as normality may be unreasonable, and resampling-based p-values are the preferred procedure for establishing statistical significance. Using resampling-based procedures for multiple testing is computationally intensive and typically requires large numbers of resamples. Results We present a new approach to more efficiently assign resamples (such as bootstrap samples or permutations within a nonparametric multiple testing framework. We formulated a Bayesian-inspired approach to this problem, and devised an algorithm that adapts the assignment of resamples iteratively with negligible space and running time overhead. In two experimental studies, a breast cancer microarray dataset and a genome wide association study dataset for Parkinson's disease, we demonstrated that our differential allocation procedure is substantially more accurate compared to the traditional uniform resample allocation. Conclusion Our experiments demonstrate that using a more sophisticated allocation strategy can improve our inference for hypothesis testing without a drastic increase in the amount of computation on randomized data. Moreover, we gain more improvement in efficiency when the number of tests is large. R code for our algorithm and the shortcut method are available at http://people.pcbi.upenn.edu/~lswang/pub/bmc2009/.

  6. Bayesian approach to spectral function reconstruction for Euclidean quantum field theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnier, Yannis; Rothkopf, Alexander

    2013-11-01

    We present a novel approach to the inference of spectral functions from Euclidean time correlator data that makes close contact with modern Bayesian concepts. Our method differs significantly from the maximum entropy method (MEM). A new set of axioms is postulated for the prior probability, leading to an improved expression, which is devoid of the asymptotically flat directions present in the Shanon-Jaynes entropy. Hyperparameters are integrated out explicitly, liberating us from the Gaussian approximations underlying the evidence approach of the maximum entropy method. We present a realistic test of our method in the context of the nonperturbative extraction of the heavy quark potential. Based on hard-thermal-loop correlator mock data, we establish firm requirements in the number of data points and their accuracy for a successful extraction of the potential from lattice QCD. Finally we reinvestigate quenched lattice QCD correlators from a previous study and provide an improved potential estimation at T=2.33T(C). PMID:24237510

  7. A Bayesian reliability approach to the performance assessment of a geological waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the task of selecting a suitable site for a high-level waste disposal repository (HLWR) which certainly is a complex one in that one must address both engineering and economic factors of the proposed facility and site as well as environmental, public health, safety, and sociopolitical factors. Acknowledging the complexity of the siting problem for a HLWR leads one to readily conclude that a formal analysis, including the use of a performance assessment model (PAM), is needed to assist the designated decision makers in their task of selecting a suitable site. The overall goal of a PAM is to aid the decision makers in making the best possible technical siting decision. For a number of reason, the authors believe that the combining of both Bayesian decision theory and reliability methodology provides the best approach to constructing a useful PAM for assisting in the siting of a HLWR. This combination allows one to formally integrate existing relevant information, professional judgement, and component model outputs to produce conditionally estimated probabilities for a decision tree approach to the radionuclide release problem of a proposed HLWR. If loss functions are available, this also allows one to calculate the expected costs or losses from possible radionuclide releases. This latter calculation may be very important in selecting the final site from among a number of alternative sites

  8. Bayesian forecasting of temporal gene expression by using an autoregressive panel data approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nascimento, M; E Silva, F F; Sáfadi, T; Nascimento, A C C; Barroso, L M A; Glória, L S; de S Carvalho, B

    2016-01-01

    We propose and evaluate a novel approach for forecasting gene expression over non-observed times in longitudinal trials under a Bayesian viewpoint. One of the aims is to cluster genes that share similar expression patterns over time and then use this similarity to predict relative expression at time points of interest. Expression values of 106 genes expressed during the cell cycle of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were used and genes were partitioned into five distinct clusters of sizes 33, 32, 21, 16, and 4. After removing the last observed time point, the agreements of signals (upregulated or downregulated) considering the predicted expression level were 72.7, 81.3, 76.2, 68.8, and 50.0%, respectively, for each cluster. The percentage of credibility intervals that contained the true values of gene expression for a future time was ~90%. The methodology performed well, providing a valid forecast of gene expression values by fitting an autoregressive panel data model. This approach is easily implemented with other time-series models and when Poisson and negative binomial probability distributions are assumed for the gene expression data. PMID:27323205

  9. Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, A.; Lesage, P.; Cortés, G.; Valette, B.; Reyes-Dávila, G.

    2015-04-01

    Many attempts for deterministic forecasting of eruptions and landslides have been performed using the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method consists in adjusting an empirical power law on precursory patterns of seismicity or deformation. Until now, most of the studies have presented hindsight forecasts based on complete time series of precursors and do not evaluate the ability of the method for carrying out real-time forecasting with partial precursory sequences. In this study, we present a rigorous approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications on volcano-seismic precursors. We use a Bayesian approach based on the FFM theory and an automatic classification of seismic events. The probability distributions of the data deduced from the performance of this classification are used as input. As output, it provides the probability of the forecast time at each observation time before the eruption. The spread of the a posteriori probability density function of the prediction time and its stability with respect to the observation time are used as criteria to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. We test the method on precursory accelerations of long-period seismicity prior to vulcanian explosions at Volcán de Colima (Mexico). For explosions preceded by a single phase of seismic acceleration, we obtain accurate and reliable forecasts using approximately 80% of the whole precursory sequence. It is, however, more difficult to apply the method to multiple acceleration patterns.

  10. A Bayesian approach to analyzing phenotype microarray data enables estimation of microbial growth parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstgrasser, Matthias; Nicholls, Sarah; Stout, Michael; Smart, Katherine; Powell, Chris; Kypraios, Theodore; Stekel, Dov

    2016-06-01

    Biolog phenotype microarrays (PMs) enable simultaneous, high throughput analysis of cell cultures in different environments. The output is high-density time-course data showing redox curves (approximating growth) for each experimental condition. The software provided with the Omnilog incubator/reader summarizes each time-course as a single datum, so most of the information is not used. However, the time courses can be extremely varied and often contain detailed qualitative (shape of curve) and quantitative (values of parameters) information. We present a novel, Bayesian approach to estimating parameters from Phenotype Microarray data, fitting growth models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to enable high throughput estimation of important information, including length of lag phase, maximal "growth" rate and maximum output. We find that the Baranyi model for microbial growth is useful for fitting Biolog data. Moreover, we introduce a new growth model that allows for diauxic growth with a lag phase, which is particularly useful where Phenotype Microarrays have been applied to cells grown in complex mixtures of substrates, for example in industrial or biotechnological applications, such as worts in brewing. Our approach provides more useful information from Biolog data than existing, competing methods, and allows for valuable comparisons between data series and across different models. PMID:26762475

  11. A Bayesian approach to the characterization of electroencephalographic recordings in premature infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Timothy J.

    Preterm infants are particularly susceptible to cerebral injury, and electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings provide an important diagnostic tool for determining cerebral health. However, interpreting these EEG recordings is challenging and requires the skills of a trained electroencephalographer. Because these EEG specialists are rare, an automated interpretation of newborn EEG recordings would increase access to an important diagnostic tool for physicians. To automate this procedure, we employ a novel Bayesian approach to compute the probability of EEG features (waveforms) including suppression, delta brushes, and delta waves. The power of this approach lies not only in its ability to closely mimic the techniques used by EEG specialists, but also its ability to be generalized to identify other waveforms that may be of interest for future work. The results of these calculations are used in a program designed to output simple statistics related to the presence or absence of such features. Direct comparison of the software with expert human readers has indicated satisfactory performance, and the algorithm has shown promise in its ability to distinguish between infants with normal neurodevelopmental outcome and those with poor neurodevelopmental outcome.

  12. Finding the optimal statistical model to describe target motion during radiotherapy delivery—a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herschtal, A.; Foroudi, F.; Greer, P. B.; Eade, T. N.; Hindson, B. R.; Kron, T.

    2012-05-01

    Early approaches to characterizing errors in target displacement during a fractionated course of radiotherapy assumed that the underlying fraction-to-fraction variability in target displacement, known as the ‘treatment error’ or ‘random error’, could be regarded as constant across patients. More recent approaches have modelled target displacement allowing for differences in random error between patients. However, until recently it has not been feasible to compare the goodness of fit of alternate models of random error rigorously. This is because the large volumes of real patient data necessary to distinguish between alternative models have only very recently become available. This work uses real-world displacement data collected from 365 patients undergoing radical radiotherapy for prostate cancer to compare five candidate models for target displacement. The simplest model assumes constant random errors across patients, while other models allow for random errors that vary according to one of several candidate distributions. Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation of the model parameters are used to compare model goodness of fit. We conclude that modelling the random error as inverse gamma distributed provides a clearly superior fit over all alternatives considered. This finding can facilitate more accurate margin recipes and correction strategies.

  13. A Bayesian geostatistical approach for evaluating the uncertainty of contaminant mass discharges from point sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troldborg, M.; Nowak, W.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

    2012-12-01

    Estimates of mass discharge (mass/time) are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Mass discharge estimates are, however, prone to rather large uncertainties as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow velocities. For risk assessments or any other decisions that are being based on mass discharge estimates, it is essential to address these uncertainties. We present a novel Bayesian geostatistical approach for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane. The method decouples the flow and transport simulation and has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is based on conditional geostatistical simulation and accounts for i) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics (including the uncertainty in covariance functions), ii) measurement uncertainty, and iii) uncertain source zone geometry and transport parameters. The method generates multiple equally likely realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution, which all honour the measured data at the control plane. The flow realizations are generated by analytical co-simulation of the hydraulic conductivity and the hydraulic gradient across the control plane. These realizations are made consistent with measurements of both hydraulic conductivity and head at the site. An analytical macro-dispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution across the control plane, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed

  14. Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in modelling risk of preterm birth near the Sydney Tar Ponds, Nova Scotia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Canty Angelo

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study compares the Bayesian and frequentist (non-Bayesian approaches in the modelling of the association between the risk of preterm birth and maternal proximity to hazardous waste and pollution from the Sydney Tar Pond site in Nova Scotia, Canada. Methods The data includes 1604 observed cases of preterm birth out of a total population of 17559 at risk of preterm birth from 144 enumeration districts in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. Other covariates include the distance from the Tar Pond; the rate of unemployment to population; the proportion of persons who are separated, divorced or widowed; the proportion of persons who have no high school diploma; the proportion of persons living alone; the proportion of single parent families and average income. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression, quasi-likelihood Poisson regression and weighted linear regression models were fitted to the data. Results The results of the analyses were compared together with their limitations. Conclusion The results of the weighted linear regression and the quasi-likelihood Poisson regression agrees with the result from the Bayesian hierarchical modelling which incorporates the spatial effects.

  15. Characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process for production of a therapeutic recombinant protein using a multivariate Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhibiao; Baker, Daniel; Cheng, Aili; Leighton, Julie; Appelbaum, Edward; Aon, Juan

    2016-05-01

    The principle of quality by design (QbD) has been widely applied to biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes. Process characterization is an essential step to implement the QbD concept to establish the design space and to define the proven acceptable ranges (PAR) for critical process parameters (CPPs). In this study, we present characterization of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentation process using risk assessment analysis, statistical design of experiments (DoE), and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approach. The critical quality attributes (CQAs) and CPPs were identified with a risk assessment. The statistical model for each attribute was established using the results from the DoE study with consideration given to interactions between CPPs. Both the conventional overlapping contour plot and the multivariate Bayesian predictive approaches were used to establish the region of process operating conditions where all attributes met their specifications simultaneously. The quantitative Bayesian predictive approach was chosen to define the PARs for the CPPs, which apply to the manufacturing control strategy. Experience from the 10,000 L manufacturing scale process validation, including 64 continued process verification batches, indicates that the CPPs remain under a state of control and within the established PARs. The end product quality attributes were within their drug substance specifications. The probability generated with the Bayesian approach was also used as a tool to assess CPP deviations. This approach can be extended to develop other production process characterization and quantify a reliable operating region. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:799-812, 2016. PMID:27095416

  16. A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences. In this paper, we adapt the imprecise Dirichlet model of Walley to represent epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. In this approach, epistemic uncertainty is expressed more cautiously via lower and upper expectations for each alpha-factor, along with a learning parameter which determines how quickly the model learns from observed data. For this application, we focus on elicitation of the learning parameter, and find that values in the range of 1 to 10 seem reasonable. The approach is compared with Kelly and Atwood's minimally informative Dirichlet prior for the alpha-factor model, which incorporated precise mean values for the alpha-factors, but which was otherwise quite diffuse. Next, we explore the use of a set of Gamma priors to model epistemic uncertainty in the marginal failure rate, expressed via a lower and upper expectation for this rate, again along with a learning parameter. As zero counts are generally less of an issue here, we find that the choice of this learning parameter is less crucial. Finally, we demonstrate how both epistemic uncertainty models can be combined to arrive at lower and upper expectations for all common-cause failure rates. Thereby, we effectively provide a full sensitivity analysis of common-cause failure rates, properly reflecting epistemic uncertainty of the analyst on all levels of the common-cause failure model

  17. Bayesian approaches to reverse engineer cellular systems: a simulation study on nonlinear Gaussian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramoni Marco F

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse engineering cellular networks is currently one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs seem to be particularly suitable for inferring relationships between cellular variables from the analysis of time series measurements of mRNA or protein concentrations. As evaluating inference results on a real dataset is controversial, the use of simulated data has been proposed. However, DBN approaches that use continuous variables, thus avoiding the information loss associated with discretization, have not yet been extensively assessed, and most of the proposed approaches have dealt with linear Gaussian models. Results We propose a generalization of dynamic Gaussian networks to accommodate nonlinear dependencies between variables. As a benchmark dataset to test the new approach, we used data from a mathematical model of cell cycle control in budding yeast that realistically reproduces the complexity of a cellular system. We evaluated the ability of the networks to describe the dynamics of cellular systems and their precision in reconstructing the true underlying causal relationships between variables. We also tested the robustness of the results by analyzing the effect of noise on the data, and the impact of a different sampling time. Conclusion The results confirmed that DBNs with Gaussian models can be effectively exploited for a first level analysis of data from complex cellular systems. The inferred models are parsimonious and have a satisfying goodness of fit. Furthermore, the networks not only offer a phenomenological description of the dynamics of cellular systems, but are also able to suggest hypotheses concerning the causal interactions between variables. The proposed nonlinear generalization of Gaussian models yielded models characterized by a slightly lower goodness of fit than the linear model, but a better ability to recover the true underlying connections between

  18. A Robust Bayesian Approach to an Optimal Replacement Policy for Gas Pipelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Pablo Arias-Nicolás

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, we address Bayesian sensitivity issues when integrating experts’ judgments with available historical data in a case study about strategies for the preventive maintenance of low-pressure cast iron pipelines in an urban gas distribution network. We are interested in replacement priorities, as determined by the failure rates of pipelines deployed under different conditions. We relax the assumptions, made in previous papers, about the prior distributions on the failure rates and study changes in replacement priorities under different choices of generalized moment-constrained classes of priors. We focus on the set of non-dominated actions, and among them, we propose the least sensitive action as the optimal choice to rank different classes of pipelines, providing a sound approach to the sensitivity problem. Moreover, we are also interested in determining which classes have a failure rate exceeding a given acceptable value, considered as the threshold determining no need for replacement. Graphical tools are introduced to help decisionmakers to determine if pipelines are to be replaced and the corresponding priorities.

  19. Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yi; Ward, Michael P; Xia, Congcong; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

    2016-01-01

    Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region. PMID:27053447

  20. Oral intercourse or secondary transfer? A Bayesian approach of salivary amylase and foreign DNA findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breathnach, Michelle; Moore, Elizabeth

    2013-06-10

    The Bayesian Approach allows forensic scientists to evaluate the significance of scientific evidence in light of two conflicting hypothesis. This aids the investigator to calculate a numerical value of the probability that the scientific findings support one hypothesis over conflicting opinions. In the case where oral intercourse is alleged, α-amylase, an indicator of saliva, is detected on penile swabs. The value of this finding is unknown as it may indicate the presence of saliva resulting from oral intercourse however it may also represent the presence of saliva due to innocent means such as background levels of salivary-α-amylase in the male population due to secondary transfer. Therefore, it is difficult to attach significance to this finding without background information and knowledge. A population study of the background levels of salivary-α-amylase was performed by analysing items of underwear worn under normal circumstances by 69 male volunteers. The Phadebas press test was used to screen the garments for amylase-containing stains and the positive areas were subjected to further confirmation of saliva by the RSID-Saliva kit. 44% of underwear screened had stains containing amylase. This study determined the background level of salivary-α-amylase and DNA on the inside front of male underwear which has potential implications on the interpretation of evidence in alleged oral intercourse. PMID:23683908

  1. A virtual experimental technique for data collection for a Bayesian network approach to human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian network (BN) is a powerful tool for human reliability analysis (HRA) as it can characterize the dependency among different human performance shaping factors (PSFs) and associated actions. It can also quantify the importance of different PSFs that may cause a human error. Data required to fully quantify BN for HRA in offshore emergency situations are not readily available. For many situations, there is little or no appropriate data. This presents significant challenges to assign the prior and conditional probabilities that are required by the BN approach. To handle the data scarcity problem, this paper presents a data collection methodology using a virtual environment for a simplified BN model of offshore emergency evacuation. A two-level, three-factor experiment is used to collect human performance data under different mustering conditions. Collected data are integrated in the BN model and results are compared with a previous study. The work demonstrates that the BN model can assess the human failure likelihood effectively. Besides, the BN model provides the opportunities to incorporate new evidence and handle complex interactions among PSFs and associated actions

  2. Receiver-based recovery of clipped ofdm signals for papr reduction: A bayesian approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2014-01-01

    Clipping is one of the simplest peak-to-average power ratio reduction schemes for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Deliberately clipping the transmission signal degrades system performance, and clipping mitigation is required at the receiver for information restoration. In this paper, we acknowledge the sparse nature of the clipping signal and propose a low-complexity Bayesian clipping estimation scheme. The proposed scheme utilizes a priori information about the sparsity rate and noise variance for enhanced recovery. At the same time, the proposed scheme is robust against inaccurate estimates of the clipping signal statistics. The undistorted phase property of the clipped signal, as well as the clipping likelihood, is utilized for enhanced reconstruction. Furthermore, motivated by the nature of modern OFDM-based communication systems, we extend our clipping reconstruction approach to multiple antenna receivers and multi-user OFDM.We also address the problem of channel estimation from pilots contaminated by the clipping distortion. Numerical findings are presented that depict favorable results for the proposed scheme compared to the established sparse reconstruction schemes.

  3. Bridging Inter- and Intraspecific Trait Evolution with a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostikova, Anna; Silvestro, Daniele; Pearman, Peter B; Salamin, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    The evolution of organisms is crucially dependent on the evolution of intraspecific variation. Its interactions with selective agents in the biotic and abiotic environments underlie many processes, such as intraspecific competition, resource partitioning and, eventually, species formation. Nevertheless, comparative models of trait evolution neither allow explicit testing of hypotheses related to the evolution of intraspecific variation nor do they simultaneously estimate rates of trait evolution by accounting for both trait mean and variance. Here, we present a model of phenotypic trait evolution using a hierarchical Bayesian approach that simultaneously incorporates interspecific and intraspecific variation. We assume that species-specific trait means evolve under a simple Brownian motion process, whereas species-specific trait variances are modeled with Brownian or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. After evaluating the power of the method through simulations, we examine whether life-history traits impact evolution of intraspecific variation in the Eriogonoideae (buckwheat family, Polygonaceae). Our model is readily extendible to more complex scenarios of the evolution of inter- and intraspecific variation and presents a step toward more comprehensive comparative models for macroevolutionary studies. PMID:26911152

  4. A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adiveppa S. Kadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. Method. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R0, using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R0 from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. Result. The estimated R0 with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R0. Conclusion. Basic reproduction number R0 provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.

  5. Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

    2010-07-15

    Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. PMID:20378244

  6. A unified Bayesian semiparametric approach to assess discrimination ability in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lili; Feng, Dai; Chen, Guoan; Taylor, Jeremy M G

    2016-06-01

    The discriminatory ability of a marker for censored survival data is routinely assessed by the time-dependent ROC curve and the c-index. The time-dependent ROC curve evaluates the ability of a biomarker to predict whether a patient lives past a particular time t. The c-index measures the global concordance of the marker and the survival time regardless of the time point. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to estimate these two measures. The proposed estimators are based on the conditional distribution of the survival time given the biomarker and the empirical biomarker distribution. The conditional distribution is estimated by a linear-dependent Dirichlet process mixture model. The resulting ROC curve is smooth as it is estimated by a mixture of parametric functions. The proposed c-index estimator is shown to be more efficient than the commonly used Harrell's c-index since it uses all pairs of data rather than only informative pairs. The proposed estimators are evaluated through simulations and illustrated using a lung cancer dataset. PMID:26676324

  7. A Bayesian semiparametric approach with change points for spatial ordinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Bo; Lawson, Andrew B; McDermott, Suzanne; Aelion, C Marjorie

    2016-04-01

    The change-point model has drawn much attention over the past few decades. It can accommodate the jump process, which allows for changes of the effects before and after the change point. Intellectual disability is a long-term disability that impacts performance in cognitive aspects of life and usually has its onset prior to birth. Among many potential causes, soil chemical exposures are associated with the risk of intellectual disability in children. Motivated by a study for soil metal effects on intellectual disability, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model with change points for spatial ordinal data to detect the unknown threshold effects. The spatial continuous latent variable underlying the spatial ordinal outcome is modeled by the multivariate Gaussian process, which captures spatial variation and is centered at the nonlinear mean. The mean function is modeled by using the penalized smoothing splines for some covariates with unknown change points and the linear regression for the others. Some identifiability constraints are used to define the latent variable. A simulation example is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach with the competing models. A retrospective cohort study for intellectual disability in South Carolina is used as an illustration. PMID:23070600

  8. A Bayesian Approach to Service Selection for Secondary Users in Cognitive Radio Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaheh Homayounvala

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In cognitive radio networks where secondary users (SUs use the time-frequency gaps of primary users' (PUs licensed spectrum opportunistically, the experienced throughput of SUs depend not only on the traffic load of the PUs but also on the PUs' service type. Each service has its own pattern of channel usage, and if the SUs know the dominant pattern of primary channel usage, then they can make a better decision on choosing which service is better to be used at a specific time to get the best advantage of the primary channel, in terms of higher achievable throughput. However, it is difficult to inform directly SUs of PUs' dominant used services in each area, for practical reasons. This paper proposes a learning mechanism embedded in SUs to sense the primary channel for a specific length of time. This algorithm recommends the SUs upon sensing a free primary channel, to choose the best service in order to get the best performance, in terms of maximum achieved throughput and the minimum experienced delay. The proposed learning mechanism is based on a Bayesian approach that can predict the performance of a requested service for a given SU. Simulation results show that this service selection method outperforms the blind opportunistic SU service selection, significantly.

  9. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  10. A Parallel and Incremental Approach for Data-Intensive Learning of Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Kun; Fang, Qiyu; Wang, Xiaoling; Li, Jin; Liu, Weiyi

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian network (BN) has been adopted as the underlying model for representing and inferring uncertain knowledge. As the basis of realistic applications centered on probabilistic inferences, learning a BN from data is a critical subject of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data paradigms. Currently, it is necessary to extend the classical methods for learning BNs with respect to data-intensive computing or in cloud environments. In this paper, we propose a parallel and incremental approach for data-intensive learning of BNs from massive, distributed, and dynamically changing data by extending the classical scoring and search algorithm and using MapReduce. First, we adopt the minimum description length as the scoring metric and give the two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for computing the required marginal probabilities and scoring the candidate graphical model from sample data. Then, we give the corresponding strategy for extending the classical hill-climbing algorithm to obtain the optimal structure, as well as that for storing a BN by pairs. Further, in view of the dynamic characteristics of the changing data, we give the concept of influence degree to measure the coincidence of the current BN with new data, and then propose the corresponding two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for BNs incremental learning. Experimental results show the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of our methods. PMID:25622335

  11. Bayesian probabilistic approach for predicting backbone structures in terms of protein blocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Brevern, A G; Etchebest, C; Hazout, S

    2000-11-15

    By using an unsupervised cluster analyzer, we have identified a local structural alphabet composed of 16 folding patterns of five consecutive C(alpha) ("protein blocks"). The dependence that exists between successive blocks is explicitly taken into account. A Bayesian approach based on the relation protein block-amino acid propensity is used for prediction and leads to a success rate close to 35%. Sharing sequence windows associated with certain blocks into "sequence families" improves the prediction accuracy by 6%. This prediction accuracy exceeds 75% when keeping the first four predicted protein blocks at each site of the protein. In addition, two different strategies are proposed: the first one defines the number of protein blocks in each site needed for respecting a user-fixed prediction accuracy, and alternatively, the second one defines the different protein sites to be predicted with a user-fixed number of blocks and a chosen accuracy. This last strategy applied to the ubiquitin conjugating enzyme (alpha/beta protein) shows that 91% of the sites may be predicted with a prediction accuracy larger than 77% considering only three blocks per site. The prediction strategies proposed improve our knowledge about sequence-structure dependence and should be very useful in ab initio protein modelling. PMID:11025540

  12. Fast Bayesian approach for modal identification using free vibration data, Part I - Most probable value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng-Liang; Ni, Yan-Chun; Au, Siu-Kui; Lam, Heung-Fai

    2016-03-01

    The identification of modal properties from field testing of civil engineering structures is becoming economically viable, thanks to the advent of modern sensor and data acquisition technology. Its demand is driven by innovative structural designs and increased performance requirements of dynamic-prone structures that call for a close cross-checking or monitoring of their dynamic properties and responses. Existing instrumentation capabilities and modal identification techniques allow structures to be tested under free vibration, forced vibration (known input) or ambient vibration (unknown broadband loading). These tests can be considered complementary rather than competing as they are based on different modeling assumptions in the identification model and have different implications on costs and benefits. Uncertainty arises naturally in the dynamic testing of structures due to measurement noise, sensor alignment error, modeling error, etc. This is especially relevant in field vibration tests because the test condition in the field environment can hardly be controlled. In this work, a Bayesian statistical approach is developed for modal identification using the free vibration response of structures. A frequency domain formulation is proposed that makes statistical inference based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the data in a selected frequency band. This significantly simplifies the identification model because only the modes dominating the frequency band need to be included. It also legitimately ignores the information in the excluded frequency bands that are either irrelevant or difficult to model, thereby significantly reducing modeling error risk. The posterior probability density function (PDF) of the modal parameters is derived rigorously from modeling assumptions and Bayesian probability logic. Computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior statistics, including the most probable value (MPV) and the posterior covariance matrix

  13. An Integrated Approach to Battery Health Monitoring using Bayesian Regression, Classification and State Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The application of the Bayesian theory of managing uncertainty and complexity to regression and classification in the form of Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and to...

  14. Bayesian Approaches to Non-parametric Estimation of Densities on the Unit Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Song Li; Silvapulle, Mervyn J.; Param Silvapulle; Xibin Zhang

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates nonparametric estimation of density on [0,1]. The kernel estimator of density on [0,1] has been found to be sensitive to both bandwidth and kernel. This paper proposes a unified Bayesian framework for choosing both the bandwidth and kernel function. In a simulation study, the Bayesian bandwidth estimator performed better than others, and kernel estimators were sensitive to the choice of the kernel and the shapes of the population densities on [0,1]. The simulation and ...

  15. Operational risk modelling and organizational learning in structured finance operations: a Bayesian network approach

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew Sanford; Imad Moosa

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a tool, based on a Bayesian network model, that provides posteriori predictions of operational risk events, aggregate operational loss distributions, and Operational Value-at-Risk, for a structured finance operations unit located within one of Australia's major banks. The Bayesian network, based on a previously developed causal framework, has been designed to model the smaller and more frequent, attritional operational loss events. Given the limited ava...

  16. Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitris P. Louzis

    2014-01-01

    We examine the ability of large-scale vector autoregressions (VARs) to produce accurate macroeconomic (output and inflation) and credit (loans and lending rates) forecasts in Greece, during the latest sovereign debt crisis. We implement recently proposed Bayesian shrinkage techniques and we evaluate the information content of forty two (42) monthly macroeconomic and financial variables in a large Bayesian VAR context, using a five year out-of-sample forecasting period from 2008 to 2013. The e...

  17. No Customer Left Behind: A Distribution-Free Bayesian Approach to Accounting for Missing Xs in Marketing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Qian; Hui Xie

    2011-01-01

    In marketing applications, it is common that some key covariates in a regression model, such as marketing mix variables or consumer profiles, are subject to missingness. The convenient method that excludes the consumers with missingness in any covariate can result in a substantial loss of efficiency and may lead to strong selection bias in the estimation of consumer preferences and sensitivities. To solve these problems, we propose a new Bayesian distribution-free approach, which can ensure t...

  18. National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise

  19. Coping with Trial-to-Trial Variability of Event Related Signals: A Bayesian Inference Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Mingzhou; Chen, Youghong; Knuth, Kevin H.; Bressler, Steven L.; Schroeder, Charles E.

    2005-01-01

    In electro-neurophysiology, single-trial brain responses to a sensory stimulus or a motor act are commonly assumed to result from the linear superposition of a stereotypic event-related signal (e.g. the event-related potential or ERP) that is invariant across trials and some ongoing brain activity often referred to as noise. To extract the signal, one performs an ensemble average of the brain responses over many identical trials to attenuate the noise. To date, h s simple signal-plus-noise (SPN) model has been the dominant approach in cognitive neuroscience. Mounting empirical evidence has shown that the assumptions underlying this model may be overly simplistic. More realistic models have been proposed that account for the trial-to-trial variability of the event-related signal as well as the possibility of multiple differentially varying components within a given ERP waveform. The variable-signal-plus-noise (VSPN) model, which has been demonstrated to provide the foundation for separation and characterization of multiple differentially varying components, has the potential to provide a rich source of information for questions related to neural functions that complement the SPN model. Thus, being able to estimate the amplitude and latency of each ERP component on a trial-by-trial basis provides a critical link between the perceived benefits of the VSPN model and its many concrete applications. In this paper we describe a Bayesian approach to deal with this issue and the resulting strategy is referred to as the differentially Variable Component Analysis (dVCA). We compare the performance of dVCA on simulated data with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and analyze neurobiological recordings from monkeys performing cognitive tasks.

  20. Bayesian approach to the analysis of neutron Brillouin scattering data on liquid metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Francesco, A.; Guarini, E.; Bafile, U.; Formisano, F.; Scaccia, L.

    2016-08-01

    When the dynamics of liquids and disordered systems at mesoscopic level is investigated by means of inelastic scattering (e.g., neutron or x ray), spectra are often characterized by a poor definition of the excitation lines and spectroscopic features in general and one important issue is to establish how many of these lines need to be included in the modeling function and to estimate their parameters. Furthermore, when strongly damped excitations are present, commonly used and widespread fitting algorithms are particularly affected by the choice of initial values of the parameters. An inadequate choice may lead to an inefficient exploration of the parameter space, resulting in the algorithm getting stuck in a local minimum. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neutron Brillouin scattering data in which the number of excitation lines is treated as unknown and estimated along with the other model parameters. We propose a joint estimation procedure based on a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which efficiently explores the parameter space, producing a probabilistic measure to quantify the uncertainty on the number of excitation lines as well as reliable parameter estimates. The method proposed could turn out of great importance in extracting physical information from experimental data, especially when the detection of spectral features is complicated not only because of the properties of the sample, but also because of the limited instrumental resolution and count statistics. The approach is tested on generated data set and then applied to real experimental spectra of neutron Brillouin scattering from a liquid metal, previously analyzed in a more traditional way.

  1. A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Nanna I.; Binning, Philip J.; McKnight, Ursula S.; Tuxen, Nina; Bjerg, Poul L.; Troldborg, Mads

    2016-05-01

    A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is in the formulation of a conceptual site model (CSM). A CSM is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modeling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. The CSM should therefore identify the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert opinion at different knowledge levels. The developed BBNs combine data from desktop studies and initial site investigations with expert opinion to assess which of the CSMs are more likely to reflect the actual site conditions. The method is demonstrated on a Danish field site, contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Four different CSMs are developed by combining two contaminant source zone interpretations (presence or absence of a separate phase contamination) and two geological interpretations (fractured or unfractured clay till). The beliefs in each of the CSMs are assessed sequentially based on data from three investigation stages (a screening investigation, a more detailed investigation, and an expert consultation) to demonstrate that the belief can be updated as more information

  2. A New Approach for Time Series Forecasting: Bayesian Enhanced by Fractional Brownian Motion with Application to Rainfall Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Rodriguez Rivero

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A new predictor algorithm based on Bayesian enhanced approach (BEA for long-term chaotic time series using artificial neural networks (ANN is presented. The technique based on stochastic models uses Bayesian inference by means of Fractional Brownian Motion as model data and Beta model as prior information. However, the need of experimental data for specifying and estimating causal models has not changed. Indeed, Bayes method provides another way to incorporate prior knowledge in forecasting models; the simplest representations of prior knowledge in forecasting models are hard to beat in many forecasting situations, either because prior knowledge is insufficient to improve on models or because prior knowledge leads to the conclusion that the situation is stable. This work contributes with long-term time series prediction, to give forecast horizons up to 18 steps ahead. Thus, the forecasted values and validation data are presented by solutions of benchmark chaotic series such as Mackey-Glass, Lorenz, Henon, Logistic, Rössler, Ikeda, Quadratic one-dimensional map series and monthly cumulative rainfall collected from Despeñaderos, Cordoba, Argentina. The computational results are evaluated against several non-linear ANN predictors proposed before on high roughness series that shows a better performance of Bayesian Enhanced approach in long-term forecasting.

  3. Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gracia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses spatial data of cases of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW to examine neighborhood-level influences on small-area variations in IPVAW risk in a police district of the city of Valencia (Spain. To analyze area variations in IPVAW risk and its association with neighborhood-level explanatory variables we use a Bayesian spatial random-effects modeling approach, as well as disease mapping methods to represent risk probabilities in each area. Analyses show that IPVAW cases are more likely in areas of high immigrant concentration, high public disorder and crime, and high physical disorder. Results also show a spatial component indicating remaining variability attributable to spatially structured random effects. Bayesian spatial modeling offers a new perspective to identify IPVAW high and low risk areas, and provides a new avenue for the design of better-informed prevention and intervention strategies.

  4. A Bayesian Approach for Evaluation of Determinants of Health System Efficiency Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Beta Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şenel, Talat; Cengiz, Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    In today's world, Public expenditures on health are one of the most important issues for governments. These increased expenditures are putting pressure on public budgets. Therefore, health policy makers have focused on the performance of their health systems and many countries have introduced reforms to improve the performance of their health systems. This study investigates the most important determinants of healthcare efficiency for OECD countries using second stage approach for Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis (BSFA). There are two steps in this study. First we measure 29 OECD countries' healthcare efficiency by BSFA using the data from the OECD Health Database. At second stage, we expose the multiple relationships between the healthcare efficiency and characteristics of healthcare systems across OECD countries using Bayesian beta regression. PMID:27118987

  5. A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution

  6. Dissection of a Complex Disease Susceptibility Region Using a Bayesian Stochastic Search Approach to Fine Mapping.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Wallace

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Identification of candidate causal variants in regions associated with risk of common diseases is complicated by linkage disequilibrium (LD and multiple association signals. Nonetheless, accurate maps of these variants are needed, both to fully exploit detailed cell specific chromatin annotation data to highlight disease causal mechanisms and cells, and for design of the functional studies that will ultimately be required to confirm causal mechanisms. We adapted a Bayesian evolutionary stochastic search algorithm to the fine mapping problem, and demonstrated its improved performance over conventional stepwise and regularised regression through simulation studies. We then applied it to fine map the established multiple sclerosis (MS and type 1 diabetes (T1D associations in the IL-2RA (CD25 gene region. For T1D, both stepwise and stochastic search approaches identified four T1D association signals, with the major effect tagged by the single nucleotide polymorphism, rs12722496. In contrast, for MS, the stochastic search found two distinct competing models: a single candidate causal variant, tagged by rs2104286 and reported previously using stepwise analysis; and a more complex model with two association signals, one of which was tagged by the major T1D associated rs12722496 and the other by rs56382813. There is low to moderate LD between rs2104286 and both rs12722496 and rs56382813 (r2 ≃ 0:3 and our two SNP model could not be recovered through a forward stepwise search after conditioning on rs2104286. Both signals in the two variant model for MS affect CD25 expression on distinct subpopulations of CD4+ T cells, which are key cells in the autoimmune process. The results support a shared causal variant for T1D and MS. Our study illustrates the benefit of using a purposely designed model search strategy for fine mapping and the advantage of combining disease and protein expression data.

  7. A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks (BNs). In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading (FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

  8. Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for PWR core loading pattern optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► The BIMCMC method performs very well and is comparable to GA and PSO techniques. ► The potential of the technique is very well for optimization. ► It is observed that the performance of the method is quite adequate. ► The BIMCMC is very easy to implement. -- Abstract: Despite remarkable progress in optimization procedures, inherent complexities in nuclear reactor structure and strong interdependence among the fundamental indices namely, economic, neutronic, thermo-hydraulic and environmental effects make it necessary to evaluate the most efficient arrangement of a reactor core. In this paper a reactor core reloading technique based on Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo, BIMCMC, is addressed in the context of obtaining an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies in reactor cores. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm has been applied for sampling variable and its acceptance. The proposed algorithm can be used for in-core fuel management optimization problems in pressurized water reactors. Considerable work has been expended for loading pattern optimization, but no preferred approach has yet emerged. To evaluate the proposed technique, increasing the effective multiplication factor Keff of a WWER-1000 core along flattening power with keeping power peaking factor below a specific limit as a first test case and flattening of power as a second test case are considered as objective functions; although other variables such as burn up and cycle length can also be taken into account. The results, convergence rate and reliability of the new method are compared to published data resulting from particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm; the outcome is quite promising and demonstrating the potential of the technique very well for optimization applications in the nuclear engineering field.

  9. BClass: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixture Models for Clustering and Classification of Heterogeneous Biological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Medrano-Soto

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on mixture models, we present a Bayesian method (called BClass to classify biological entities (e.g. genes when variables of quite heterogeneous nature are analyzed. Various statistical distributions are used to model the continuous/categorical data commonly produced by genetic experiments and large-scale genomic projects. We calculate the posterior probability of each entry to belong to each element (group in the mixture. In this way, an original set of heterogeneous variables is transformed into a set of purely homogeneous characteristics represented by the probabilities of each entry to belong to the groups. The number of groups in the analysis is controlled dynamically by rendering the groups as 'alive' and 'dormant' depending upon the number of entities classified within them. Using standard Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling algorithms, we constructed a sampler to approximate posterior moments and grouping probabilities. Since this method does not require the definition of similarity measures, it is especially suitable for data mining and knowledge discovery in biological databases. We applied BClass to classify genes in RegulonDB, a database specialized in information about the transcriptional regulation of gene expression in the bacterium Escherichia coli. The classification obtained is consistent with current knowledge and allowed prediction of missing values for a number of genes. BClass is object-oriented and fully programmed in Lisp-Stat. The output grouping probabilities are analyzed and interpreted using graphical (dynamically linked plots and query-based approaches. We discuss the advantages of using Lisp-Stat as a programming language as well as the problems we faced when the data volume increased exponentially due to the ever-growing number of genomic projects.

  10. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Modeling Using the ETAS Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, G.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most popular tools for modeling seismicity and quantifying risk in earthquake-prone regions. Under the ETAS model, the occurrence times of earthquakes are treated as a self-exciting Poisson process where each earthquake briefly increases the probability of subsequent earthquakes occurring soon afterwards, which captures the fact that large mainshocks tend to produce long sequences of aftershocks. A triggering kernel controls the amount by which the probability increases based on the magnitude of each earthquake, and the rate at which it then decays over time. This triggering kernel is usually chosen heuristically, to match the parametric form of the modified Omori law for aftershock decay. However recent work has questioned whether this is an appropriate choice. Since the choice of kernel has a large impact on the predictions made by the ETAS model, avoiding misspecification is crucially important. We present a novel nonparametric version of ETAS which avoids making parametric assumptions, and instead learns the correct specification from the data itself. Our approach is based on the Dirichlet process, which is a modern class of Bayesian prior distribution which allows for efficient inference over an infinite dimensional space of functions. We show how our nonparametric ETAS model can be fit to data, and present results demonstrating that the fit is greatly improved compared to the standard parametric specification. Additionally, we explain how our model can be used to perform probabilistic declustering of earthquake catalogs, to classify earthquakes as being either aftershocks or mainshocks. and to learn the causal relations between pairs of earthquakes.

  11. Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.

    2015-01-01

    Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R0. However, understanding the mechanisms linking R0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R0. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R0. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

  12. An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana Venkataraman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD. Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differences in connectivity to localize a subset of foci that are most affected by ASD. Our approach is entirely data-driven and does not impose spatial constraints on the region foci or dictate the trajectory of altered functional pathways. We apply our method to data from the openly shared Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE and pinpoint two intrinsic functional networks that distinguish ASD patients from typically developing controls. One network involves foci in the right temporal pole, left posterior cingulate cortex, left supramarginal gyrus, and left middle temporal gyrus. Automated decoding of this network by the Neurosynth meta-analytic database suggests high-level concepts of “language” and “comprehension” as the likely functional correlates. The second network consists of the left banks of the superior temporal sulcus, right posterior superior temporal sulcus extending into temporo-parietal junction, and right middle temporal gyrus. Associated functionality of these regions includes “social” and “person”. The abnormal pathways emanating from the above foci indicate that ASD patients simultaneously exhibit reduced long-range or inter-hemispheric connectivity and increased short-range or intra-hemispheric connectivity. Our findings reveal new insights into ASD and highlight possible neural mechanisms of the disorder.

  13. BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE PROCESS OF IDENTIFICATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Czyżewska

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian belief networks are applied in determining the most important factors of the innovativeness level of national economies. The paper is divided into two parts. The first presentsthe basic theory of Bayesian networks whereas in the second, the belief networks have been generated by an inhouse developed computer system called BeliefSEEKER which was implemented to generate the determinants influencing the innovativeness level of national economies.Qualitative analysis of the generated belief networks provided a way to define a set of the most important dimensions influencing the innovativeness level of economies and then the indicators that form these dimensions. It has been proven that Bayesian networks are very effective methods for multidimensional analysis and forming conclusions and recommendations regarding the strength of each innovative determinant influencing the overall performance of a country’s economy.

  14. Online query answering with differential privacy: a utility-driven approach using Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Xiao, Yonghui

    2012-01-01

    Data privacy issues frequently and increasingly arise for data sharing and data analysis tasks. In this paper, we study the problem of online query answering under the rigorous differential privacy model. The existing interactive mechanisms for differential privacy can only support a limited number of queries before the accumulated cost of privacy reaches a certain bound. This limitation has greatly hindered their applicability, especially in the scenario where multiple users legitimately need to pose a large number of queries. To minimize the privacy cost and extend the life span of a system, we propose a utility-driven mechanism for online query answering using Bayesian statistical inference. The key idea is to keep track of the query history and use Bayesian inference to answer a new query using previous query answers. The Bayesian inference algorithm provides both optimal point estimation and optimal interval estimation. We formally quantify the error of the inference result to determine if it satisfies t...

  15. A Bayesian approach to identifying structural nonlinearity using free-decay response: Application to damage detection in composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.M.; Link, W.A.; Murphy, K.D.; Olson, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    This work discusses a Bayesian approach to approximating the distribution of parameters governing nonlinear structural systems. Specifically, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling the posterior parameter distributions thus producing both point and interval estimates for parameters. The method is first used to identify both linear and nonlinear parameters in a multiple degree-of-freedom structural systems using free-decay vibrations. The approach is then applied to the problem of identifying the location, size, and depth of delamination in a model composite beam. The influence of additive Gaussian noise on the response data is explored with respect to the quality of the resulting parameter estimates.

  16. Predicting mTOR inhibitors with a classifier using recursive partitioning and Naive Bayesian approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR is a central controller of cell growth, proliferation, metabolism, and angiogenesis. Thus, there is a great deal of interest in developing clinical drugs based on mTOR. In this paper, in silico models based on multi-scaffolds were developed to predict mTOR inhibitors or non-inhibitors. METHODS: First 1,264 diverse compounds were collected and categorized as mTOR inhibitors and non-inhibitors. Two methods, recursive partitioning (RP and naïve Bayesian (NB, were used to build combinatorial classification models of mTOR inhibitors versus non-inhibitors using physicochemical descriptors, fingerprints, and atom center fragments (ACFs. RESULTS: A total of 253 models were constructed and the overall predictive accuracies of the best models were more than 90% for both the training set of 964 and the external test set of 300 diverse compounds. The scaffold hopping abilities of the best models were successfully evaluated through predicting 37 new recently published mTOR inhibitors. Compared with the best RP and Bayesian models, the classifier based on ACFs and Bayesian shows comparable or slightly better in performance and scaffold hopping abilities. A web server was developed based on the ACFs and Bayesian method (http://rcdd.sysu.edu.cn/mtor/. This web server can be used to predict whether a compound is an mTOR inhibitor or non-inhibitor online. CONCLUSION: In silico models were constructed to predict mTOR inhibitors using recursive partitioning and naïve Bayesian methods, and a web server (mTOR Predictor was also developed based on the best model results. Compound prediction or virtual screening can be carried out through our web server. Moreover, the favorable and unfavorable fragments for mTOR inhibitors obtained from Bayesian classifiers will be helpful for lead optimization or the design of new mTOR inhibitors.

  17. Bayesian Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK Approach for a Physiologically Realistic Characterization of Interindividual Variability in Clinically Relevant Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Krauss

    Full Text Available Interindividual variability in anatomical and physiological properties results in significant differences in drug pharmacokinetics. The consideration of such pharmacokinetic variability supports optimal drug efficacy and safety for each single individual, e.g. by identification of individual-specific dosings. One clear objective in clinical drug development is therefore a thorough characterization of the physiological sources of interindividual variability. In this work, we present a Bayesian population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK approach for the mechanistically and physiologically realistic identification of interindividual variability. The consideration of a generic and highly detailed mechanistic PBPK model structure enables the integration of large amounts of prior physiological knowledge, which is then updated with new experimental data in a Bayesian framework. A covariate model integrates known relationships of physiological parameters to age, gender and body height. We further provide a framework for estimation of the a posteriori parameter dependency structure at the population level. The approach is demonstrated considering a cohort of healthy individuals and theophylline as an application example. The variability and co-variability of physiological parameters are specified within the population; respectively. Significant correlations are identified between population parameters and are applied for individual- and population-specific visual predictive checks of the pharmacokinetic behavior, which leads to improved results compared to present population approaches. In the future, the integration of a generic PBPK model into an hierarchical approach allows for extrapolations to other populations or drugs, while the Bayesian paradigm allows for an iterative application of the approach and thereby a continuous updating of physiological knowledge with new data. This will facilitate decision making e.g. from preclinical to

  18. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  19. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  20. Is there a Link Between Geomagnetic Reversal Frequency and Paleointensity? A Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, E. M.; Heslop, D.; Roberts, A. P.; Hawkins, R.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 25 years several studies have tested for a link between geomagnetic field intensity and reversal frequency. However, despite a large increase in the number of absolute paleointensity estimates available, and improved methods for obtaining such data, no conclusive evidence has been found for such a link. Here, we employ a new tool for objectively analyzing paleomagnetic time series to investigate the possibility of a link between reversal frequency and paleointensity. Reverse Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis is a Bayesian approach to sampling for model inference in problems with variable dimension. The Reverse Jump method is applied to a quality filtered version of the global paleointensity database for the last 202 My to identify rapid changes, known as change points, in the Earth's paleointensity, and to model long-term paleointensity behavior. A transdimensional Markov Chain is used to generate a large number of paleointensity models with a variable number and position of change points. A final mean paleointensity model, along with an estimate of the associated uncertainty, is extracted from this ensemble of models. The resulting paleointensity model for 0-202 Ma contains spikes at around the ages of records that were obtained using the single silicate crystal paleointensity method. This suggests that the single silicate crystal method gives significantly different results from the more conventional whole rock paleointensity methods, which makes it difficult to include the two data types in the same analysis. When single silicate crystal data are omitted from the dataset, no large change points are identified and a stable paleointensity of 5.46 × 0.28 x 10^22 A/m^2 is consistent with the 95% confidence interval of the mean paleointensity model for the period spanning the interval from 202 to 10 My. The modeled paleointensity has no distinct variability between times of high reversal frequency, such as the late Jurassic, and low reversal

  1. Partitioning net ecosystem exchange of CO2: A comparison of a Bayesian/isotope approach to environmental regression methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobitz, J. M.; Burns, S. P.; OgéE, J.; Reichstein, M.; Bowling, D. R.

    2007-09-01

    Separation of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (F) into its component fluxes of net photosynthesis (FA) and nonfoliar respiration (FR) is important in understanding the physical and environmental controls on these fluxes, and how these fluxes may respond to environmental change. In this paper, we evaluate a partitioning method based on a combination of stable isotopes of CO2 and Bayesian optimization in the context of partitioning methods based on regressions with environmental variables. We combined high-resolution measurements of stable carbon isotopes of CO2, ecosystem fluxes, and meteorological variables with a Bayesian parameter optimization approach to estimate FA and FR in a subalpine forest in Colorado, United States, over the course of 104 days during summer 2003. Results were generally in agreement with the independent environmental regression methods of Reichstein et al. (2005a) and Yi et al. (2004). Half-hourly posterior parameter estimates of FA and FR derived from the Bayesian/isotopic method showed a strong diurnal pattern in both, consistent with established gross photosynthesis (GEE) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) relationships. Isotope-derived FA was functionally dependent on light, but FR exhibited the expected temperature dependence only when the prior estimates for FR were temperature-based. Examination of the posterior correlation matrix revealed that the available data were insufficient to independently resolve all the Bayesian-estimated parameters in our model. This could be due to a small isotopic disequilibrium (?) between FA and FR, poor characterization of whole-canopy photosynthetic discrimination or the isotopic flux (isoflux, analogous to net ecosystem exchange of 13CO2). The positive sign of ? indicates that FA was more enriched in 13C than FR. Possible reasons for this are discussed in the context of recent literature.

  2. Point process algorithm: a new Bayesian approach for TPF-I planet signal extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velusamy, T.; Marsh, K. A.; Ware, B.

    2005-01-01

    TPF-I capability for planetary signal extraction, including both detection and spectral characterization, can be optimized by taking proper account of instrumental characteristics and astrophysical prior information. We have developed the Point Process Algorithm, a Bayesian technique for estracting planetary signals using the sine/cosine chopped outputs of a dual nulling interferometer.

  3. A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach to Logically-Consistent Hypothesis Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Miranda da Silva

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses an important issue regarding the performance of simultaneous test procedures: the construction of multiple tests that at the same time are optimal from a statistical perspective and that also yield logically-consistent results that are easy to communicate to practitioners of statistical methods. For instance, if hypothesis A implies hypothesis B, is it possible to create optimal testing procedures that reject A whenever they reject B? Unfortunately, several standard testing procedures fail in having such logical consistency. Although this has been deeply investigated under a frequentist perspective, the literature lacks analyses under a Bayesian paradigm. In this work, we contribute to the discussion by investigating three rational relationships under a Bayesian decision-theoretic standpoint: coherence, invertibility and union consonance. We characterize and illustrate through simple examples optimal Bayes tests that fulfill each of these requisites separately. We also explore how far one can go by putting these requirements together. We show that although fairly intuitive tests satisfy both coherence and invertibility, no Bayesian testing scheme meets the desiderata as a whole, strengthening the understanding that logical consistency cannot be combined with statistical optimality in general. Finally, we associate Bayesian hypothesis testing with Bayes point estimation procedures. We prove the performance of logically-consistent hypothesis testing by means of a Bayes point estimator to be optimal only under very restrictive conditions.

  4. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  5. A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yen-Hsia; Wu, Shihn-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Hung Richard; Tsai, Jui-Hsiu; Yang, Pinchen; Chang, Yang-Pei; Tseng, Kuan-Hua

    2016-05-01

    Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics.We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database.We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia.We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients. PMID:27227925

  6. A full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach based on the material decomposition model applied in dual-energy computed tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, C. [CEA, LIST, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France and CNRS, SUPELEC, UNIV PARIS SUD, L2S, 3 rue Joliot-Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Rodet, T.; Mohammad-Djafari, A. [CNRS, SUPELEC, UNIV PARIS SUD, L2S, 3 rue Joliot-Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Legoupil, S. [CEA, LIST, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) makes it possible to get two fractions of basis materials without segmentation. One is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical DECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic x-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam polychromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in beam-hardening artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log preprocessing and the ill-conditioned water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on nonlinear forward models counting the beam polychromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.Methods: This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a nonquadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone conjugate gradient algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.Results: The performance of the proposed approach is analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also

  7. Spectro-photometric distances to stars: A general purpose Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Basílio X.; Brauer, Dorothée E.; Anders, Friedrich; Chiappini, Cristina; Queiroz, Anna B.; Girardi, Léo; Rocha-Pinto, Helio J.; Balbinot, Eduardo; da Costa, Luiz N.; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Schultheis, Mathias; Steinmetz, Matthias; Miglio, Andrea; Montalbán, Josefina; Schneider, Donald P.; Beers, Timothy C.; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Lee, Young Sun; Zasowski, Gail

    2016-01-01

    Context. Determining distances to individual field stars is a necessary step towards mapping Galactic structure and determining spatial variations in the chemo-dynamical properties of stellar populations in the Milky Way. Aims: In order to provide stellar distance estimates for various spectroscopic surveys, we have developed a code that estimates distances to stars using measured spectroscopic and photometric quantities. We employ a Bayesian approach to build the probability distribution function over stellar evolutionary models given these data, delivering estimates of model parameters (including distances) for each star individually. Our method provides several alternative distance estimates for each star in the output, along with their associated uncertainties. This facilitates the use of our method even in the absence of some measurements. Methods: The code was first tested on simulations, successfully recovering input distances to mock stars with ≲1% bias. We found the uncertainties scale with the uncertainties in the adopted spectro-photometric parameters. The method-intrinsic random distance uncertainties for typical spectroscopic survey measurements amount to around 10% for dwarf stars and 20% for giants, and are most sensitive to the quality of log g measurements. Results: The code was then validated by comparing our distance estimates to parallax measurements from the Hipparcos mission for nearby stars (Survey programs SEGUE and APOGEE, as well as various ESO instruments. Conclusions: External comparisons confirm that our distances are subject to very small systematic biases with respect to the fundamental Hipparcos scale (+ 0.4% for dwarfs, and + 1.6% for giants). The typical random distance scatter is 18% for dwarfs, and 26% for giants. For the CoRoT-APOGEE sample, which spans Galactocentric distances of 4-14 kpc, the typical random distance scatter is ≃15% both for the nearby and farther data. Our distances are systematically larger than the Co

  8. Assessing uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources: Bayesian neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impact studies on water resources have so far provided results difficult to use for policy decision and planning of adaptation measures because of the lack of robust uncertainty estimates. There are various sources of uncertainty due to the global circulation models (GCMs) or the regional climate models (RCMs), the emission scenarios, the downscaling techniques, and the hydrological models. The estimation of the overall impact of those uncertainties on the future streamflow or reservoir inflow simulations at the watershed scale remains a difficult and challenging task. The use of multi-model super-ensembles in order to capture the wide range of uncertainties is cumbersome and requires large computational and human resources. As an alternative, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach is proposed as an effective hydrologic modeling tool for simulating future flows with uncertainty estimates. The BNN model is used with two versions of Canadian GCMs (CGCM1 and CGCM2) with two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and IPCC IS92a), and with one well established statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to simulate daily river flow and reservoir inflow in the Serpent River and the Chute-du-Diable watersheds in northern Quebec. It is found that the 95% uncertainty bands of the BNN mean ensemble flow (i.e. flow simulated using the mean ensemble of downscaled meteorological variables) is capable of encompassing all other possible flows corresponding to various individual downscaled meteorological ensembles whatever the CGCM and the emission scenario used. Specifically, this indicates that the BNN model confidence intervals are capable of including all possible flow variations due to various ensembles of downscaled meteorological variables from two different CGCMs and emission scenarios. Furthermore, the confidence limits of the BNN model also encompasses the flows simulated using another conceptual hydrologic model (namely HBV) whatever the GCM and the emission scenario

  9. Understanding and predicting changing use of groundwater with climate and other uncertainties: a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, F. A. F.; Keir, G.; McIntyre, N.; Bulovic, N.

    2015-12-01

    Most groundwater supply bores in Australia do not have flow metering equipment and so regional groundwater abstraction rates are not well known. Past estimates of unmetered abstraction for regional numerical groundwater modelling typically have not attempted to quantify the uncertainty inherent in the estimation process in detail. In particular, the spatial properties of errors in the estimates are almost always neglected. Here, we apply Bayesian spatial models to estimate these abstractions at a regional scale, using the state-of-the-art computationally inexpensive approaches of integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE). We examine a case study in the Condamine Alluvium aquifer in southern Queensland, Australia; even in this comparatively data-rich area with extensive groundwater abstraction for agricultural irrigation, approximately 80% of bores do not have reliable metered flow records. Additionally, the metering data in this area are characterised by complicated statistical features, such as zero-valued observations, non-normality, and non-stationarity. While this precludes the use of many classical spatial estimation techniques, such as kriging, our model (using the R-INLA package) is able to accommodate these features. We use a joint model to predict both probability and magnitude of abstraction from bores in space and time, and examine the effect of a range of high-resolution gridded meteorological covariates upon the predictive ability of the model. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores are used to assess a range of potential models, which reward good model fit while penalising excessive model complexity. We conclude that maximum air temperature (as a reasonably effective surrogate for evapotranspiration) is the most significant single predictor of abstraction rate; and that a significant spatial effect exists (represented by the SPDE approximation of a Gaussian random field with a Mat

  10. In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jeffrey H.

    2006-01-01

    The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

  11. A Bayesian Approach to Calibrating High-Throughput Virtual Screening Results and Application to Organic Photovoltaic Materials

    CERN Document Server

    Pyzer-Knapp, Edward O; Aspuru-Guzik, Alan

    2015-01-01

    A novel approach for calibrating quantum-chemical properties determined as part of a high-throughput virtual screen to experimental analogs is presented. Information on the molecular graph is extracted through the use of extended connectivity fingerprints, and exploited using a Gaussian process to calibrate both electronic properties such as frontier orbital energies, and optical gaps and device properties such as short circuit current density, open circuit voltage and power conversion efficiency. The Bayesian nature of this process affords a value for uncertainty in addition to each calibrated value. This allows the researcher to gain intuition about the model as well as the ability to respect its bounds.

  12. Bayesian probabilistic approach for inverse source determination from limited and noisy chemical or biological sensor concentration measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Eugene

    2007-04-01

    Although a great deal of research effort has been focused on the forward prediction of the dispersion of contaminants (e.g., chemical and biological warfare agents) released into the turbulent atmosphere, much less work has been directed toward the inverse prediction of agent source location and strength from the measured concentration, even though the importance of this problem for a number of practical applications is obvious. In general, the inverse problem of source reconstruction is ill-posed and unsolvable without additional information. It is demonstrated that a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework provides a natural and logically consistent method for source reconstruction from a limited number of noisy concentration data. In particular, the Bayesian approach permits one to incorporate prior knowledge about the source as well as additional information regarding both model and data errors. The latter enables a rigorous determination of the uncertainty in the inference of the source parameters (e.g., spatial location, emission rate, release time, etc.), hence extending the potential of the methodology as a tool for quantitative source reconstruction. A model (or, source-receptor relationship) that relates the source distribution to the concentration data measured by a number of sensors is formulated, and Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source-receptor relationship, is described. Furthermore, we describe the application of efficient stochastic algorithms based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for sampling from the posterior distribution of the source parameters, the latter of which is required to undertake the Bayesian computation. The Bayesian inferential methodology for source reconstruction is validated against real

  13. Estimating the occurrence of foreign material in Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors: A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The amount of a specific type of foreign material found in UK AGRs has been estimated. • The estimate is based on very few instances of detection in numerous inspections. • A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach was used. • The study supports safety case claims on coolant flow impairment. • The methodology is applicable to any inspection campaign on any plant system. - Abstract: The current occurrence of a particular sort of foreign material in eight UK Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors has been estimated by means of a parametric approach. The study includes both variability, treated in analytic fashion via the combination of standard probability distributions, and the uncertainty in the parameters of the model of choice, whose posterior distribution was inferred in Bayesian fashion by means of a Monte Carlo route consisting in the conditional acceptance of sets of model parameters drawn from a prior distribution based on engineering judgement. The model underlying the present study specifically refers to the re-loading and inspection routines of UK Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors. The approach to inference here presented, however, is of general validity and can be applied to the outcome of any inspection campaign on any plant system, and indeed to any situation in which the outcome of a stochastic process is more easily simulated than described by a probability density or mass function

  14. Structural health monitoring of liquid-filled tanks: a Bayesian approach for location of acoustic emission sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acoustic emission (AE) is a well-established nondestructive testing method for assessing the condition of liquid-filled tanks. Often the tank can be tested without the need for accurate location of AE sources. But sometimes, accurate location is required, such as in the case of follow-up inspections after AE has indicated a significant defect. Traditional computed location techniques that considered only the wave traveling through the shell of the tank have not proved reliable when applied to liquid-filled tanks. This because AE sensors are often responding to liquid-borne waves, that are not considered in the traditional algorithms. This paper describes an approach for locating AE sources on the wall of liquid filled tanks that includes two novel aspects: (i) the use of liquid-borne waves, and (ii) the use of a probabilistic algorithm. The proposed algorithm is developed within a Bayesian framework that considers uncertainties in the wave velocities and the time of arrival. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to estimate the distribution of the AE source location. This approach was applied on a 102 inch diameter (29 000 gal) railroad tank car by estimating the source locations from pencil lead break with waveforms recorded. Results show that the proposed Bayesian approach for source location can be used to calculate the most probable region of the tank wall where the AE source is located. (paper)

  15. A Bayesian approach to scaling relations for amplitudes of solar-like oscillations in Kepler stars

    CERN Document Server

    Corsaro, E; Bonanno, A; Huber, D; Bedding, T R; Benomar, O; De Ridder, J; Stello, D

    2012-01-01

    We investigate different amplitude scaling relations adopted for the asteroseismology of stars that show solar-like oscillations. Amplitudes are among the most challenging asteroseismic quantities to handle because of the large uncertainties that arise in measuring the background level in the star's power spectrum. We present results computed by means of a Bayesian inference on a sample of 1640 stars observed with \\it{Kepler}, spanning from main sequence to red giant stars, for 12 models used for amplitude predictions and exploiting recently well-calibrated effective temperatures from SDSS photometry. We test the candidate amplitude scaling relations by means of a Bayesian model comparison. We find the model having a separate dependence upon the mass of the stars to be largely the most favored one. The differences among models and the differences seen in their free parameters from early to late phases of stellar evolution are also highlighted.

  16. AGNfitter: A Bayesian MCMC approach to fitting spectral energy distributions of AGN

    CERN Document Server

    Rivera, Gabriela Calistro; Hennawi, Joseph F; Hogg, David W

    2016-01-01

    We present AGNfitter, a publicly available open-source algorithm implementing a fully Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) from the sub-mm to the UV, allowing one to robustly disentangle the physical processes responsible for their emission. AGNfitter makes use of a large library of theoretical, empirical, and semi-empirical models to characterize both the nuclear and host galaxy emission simultaneously. The model consists of four physical emission components: an accretion disk, a torus of AGN heated dust, stellar populations, and cold dust in star forming regions. AGNfitter determines the posterior distributions of numerous parameters that govern the physics of AGN with a fully Bayesian treatment of errors and parameter degeneracies, allowing one to infer integrated luminosities, dust attenuation parameters, stellar masses, and star formation rates. We tested AGNfitter's performace on real data by fitting the SEDs of a sample...

  17. A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 2. Model validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, D. E.; Wang, Q. J.; Malano, H.; Etchells, T.

    2009-02-01

    For models to be useful, they need to adequately describe the systems they represent. The probabilistic nature of Bayesian network models has traditionally meant that model validation is difficult. In this paper we present a process to validate Inteca-Farm, a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation that we described in the first paper of this series. We assessed three aspects of the quality of model predictions, namely, bias, accuracy, and skill, for the two variables for which validation data are available directly or indirectly. We also examined model predictions for any systematic errors. The validation results show that the bias and accuracy of the two validated variables are within acceptable tolerances and that systematic errors are minimal. This suggests that Inteca-Farm is a plausible representation of farm irrigation system in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia.

  18. A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 3. Spatial application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, D. E.; Wang, Q. J.; McAllister, A. T.; Abuzar, M.; Malano, H. M.; Etchells, T.

    2009-02-01

    Catchment managers are interested in understanding impacts of the management options they promote at both farm and regional scales. In this third paper of this series, we use Inteca-Farm, a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia, to assess the current condition of management outcome measures and the impact of historical and future management intervention. To help overcome difficulties in comprehending modeling results that are expressed as probability distributions, to capture uncertainties, we introduce methods to spatially display and compare the output from Bayesian network models and to use these methods to compare model predictions for three management scenarios. Model predictions suggest that management intervention has made a substantial improvement to the condition of management outcome measures and that further improvements are possible. The results highlight that the management impacts are spatially variable, which demonstrates that farm modeling can provide valuable evidence in substantiating the impact of catchment management intervention.

  19. Point Process Algorithm: A New Bayesian Approach for Planet Signal Extraction with the Terrestrial Planet Finder

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, K. A.; Velusamy, T.; Ware, B.

    2006-01-01

    The capability of the Terrestrial Planet Finder Interferometer (TPF-I) for planetary signal extraction, including both detection and spectral characterization, can be optimized by taking proper account of instrumental characteristics and astrophysical prior information. We have developed the Point Process Algorithm (PPA), a Bayesian technique for extracting planetary signals using the sine-chopped outputs of a dual nulling interferometer. It is so-called because it represents the system being...

  20. STATE ESTIMATION IN ALCOHOLIC CONTINUOUS FERMENTATION OF ZYMOMONAS MOBILIS USING RECURSIVE BAYESIAN FILTERING: A SIMULATION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Lucia Quintero; Adriana Amicarelli; Fernando di Sciascio; Gustavo Scaglia

    2008-01-01

    This work presents a state estimator for a continuous bioprocess. To this aim, the Non Linear Filtering theory based on the recursive application of Bayes rule and Monte Carlo techniques is used. Recursive Bayesian Filters Sampling Importance Resampling (SIR) is employed, including different kinds of resampling. Generally, bio-processes have strong non-linear and non-Gaussian characteristics, and this tool becomes attractive. The estimator behavior and performance are illustrated with the con...

  1. Implementation of upper limit calculation for a Poisson variable by Bayesian approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Yong-Sheng

    2008-01-01

    The calculation of Bayesian confidence upper limit for a Poisson variable including both signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties has been formulated.A Fortran 77 routine,BPULE,has been developed to implement the calculation.The routine can account for systematic uncertainties in the background expectation and signal efficiency.The systematic uncertainties may be separately parameterized by a Gaussian,Log-Gaussian or fiat probability density function (pdf).Some technical details of BPULE have been discussed.

  2. A HYBRID APPROACH FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) AND BAYESIAN NETWORK (BN)

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad eZubair

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of the nuclear accidents reveals that the accumulation of various technical and nontechnical lapses compounded the nuclear disaster. By using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and nontechnical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that besides technical fixes such as enhanced engineering safety features and better siting choices, the critical ingredient for safe operation of nuclear reactors lie i...

  3. Inferring population history with DIYABC: a user-friendly approach to Approximate Bayesian Computation

    OpenAIRE

    Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A; Robert, Christian P.; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J.; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in...

  4. Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses

    OpenAIRE

    Feldstein, Leora R.; John S Brownstein; Brady, Oliver J.; Simon I Hay; Johansson, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear. Methods: We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbrea...

  5. A BAYESIAN NETWORKS APPROACH TO MODELING FINANCIAL RISKS OF E-LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    CHIEN-WEN SHEN

    2009-01-01

    To evaluate whether the investments of e-logistics systems may increase financial risks, models of Bayesian networks are constructed in this study with the mechanism of structural learning and parameter learning. Empirical findings from the transport and logistics sectors suggest that the e-logistics investments generally do not increase the financial risks of companies except the implementation of computer aided picking systems and radio frequency identification. Meanwhile, only the investme...

  6. The Revisiting Problem in Mobile Robot Map Building: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, Benjamin; Ko, Jonathan; Fox, Dieter; Konolige, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    We present an application of hierarchical Bayesian estimation to robot map building. The revisiting problem occurs when a robot has to decide whether it is seeing a previously-built portion of a map, or is exploring new territory. This is a difficult decision problem, requiring the probability of being outside of the current known map. To estimate this probability, we model the structure of a "typical" environment as a hidden Markov model that generates sequences of views observed by a robot ...

  7. Modelling macroeconomic e ects and expert judgements in operational risk : a Bayesian approach

    OpenAIRE

    Capa Santos, Holger; Kratz, Marie; Mosquera Munoz, Franklin

    2012-01-01

    This work presents a contribution on operational risk under a general Bayesian context incorporating information on market risk pro le, experts and operational losses, taking into account the general macroeconomic environment as well. It aims at estimating a characteristic parameter of the distributions of the sources, market risk pro le, experts and operational losses, chosen here at a location parameter. It generalizes under more realistic conditions a study realized by Lambrigger, Shevchen...

  8. An unbiased Bayesian approach to functional connectomics implicates social-communication networks in autism

    OpenAIRE

    Archana Venkataraman; Duncan, James S.; Daniel Y.-J. Yang; Pelphrey, Kevin A.

    2015-01-01

    Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) studies reveal a complex pattern of hyper- and hypo-connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Whereas rsfMRI findings tend to implicate the default mode network and subcortical areas in ASD, task fMRI and behavioral experiments point to social dysfunction as a unifying impairment of the disorder. Here, we leverage a novel Bayesian framework for whole-brain functional connectomics that aggregates population differ...

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Refik Soyer; M. Murat Tarimcilar

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential hetero...

  10. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  11. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Yunfei; Tong, Jiejuan; Zhang, Liguo, E-mail: lgzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Qin

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM.

  12. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM

  13. The Influence of Baseline Marijuana Use on Treatment of Cocaine Dependence: Application of an Informative-Priors Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F. Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect. PMID:23115553

  14. The influence of baseline marijuana use on treatment of cocaine dependence: application of an informative-priors Bayesian approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles eGreen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1 examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2 apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect.Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided samples for the historical dataset (Study 1: N = 64 complete observations and current dataset (Study 2: N = 113 complete observations. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo, baseline marijuana use (days in past 30, and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES.Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect.

  15. STATE ESTIMATION IN ALCOHOLIC CONTINUOUS FERMENTATION OF ZYMOMONAS MOBILIS USING RECURSIVE BAYESIAN FILTERING: A SIMULATION APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Lucia Quintero

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a state estimator for a continuous bioprocess. To this aim, the Non Linear Filtering theory based on the recursive application of Bayes rule and Monte Carlo techniques is used. Recursive Bayesian Filters Sampling Importance Resampling (SIR is employed, including different kinds of resampling. Generally, bio-processes have strong non-linear and non-Gaussian characteristics, and this tool becomes attractive. The estimator behavior and performance are illustrated with the continuous process of alcoholic fermentation of Zymomonas mobilis. Not too many applications with this tool have been reported in the biotechnological area.

  16. On open questions in the geometric approach to structural learning Bayesian nets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan; Vomlel, Jiří

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 5 (2011), s. 627-640. ISSN 0888-613X. [Workshop on Uncertainty Processing WUPES'09 /8./. Liblice, 19.09.2009-23.09.2009] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539; GA ČR GEICC/08/E010 Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : structural learning Bayesian nets * standard imset * polytope * geometric neighborhood * differential imset Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.948, year: 2011

  17. Time-Calibrated Phylogenomics of the Classical Swine Fever Viruses: Genome-Wide Bayesian Coalescent Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kwon, Taehyung; Yoon, Sook Hee; Kim, Kyu-Won; Caetano-Anolles, Kelsey; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal

    2015-01-01

    The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF), has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI) and Maximum likelihood (ML), the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, an...

  18. Estimating Estate-Specific Price-to-Rent Ratios in Shanghai and Shenzhen: A Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jie Chen; Shawn Ni

    2010-01-01

    The price-to-rent ratio, a common yardstick for the value of housing, is difficult to estimate when rental properties are poor substitutes of owner-occupied homes. In this study, we estimate price-to-rent ratios of residential properties in two major cities in China, where urban high-rises (estates) comprise both rental and owner-occupied units. We conduct Bayesian inference on estate-specific parameters by using information of rental units to elicit priors of the unobserved rents of units so...

  19. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter; James Heckman; Rémi Piatek

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identifi cation criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study c...

  20. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...

  1. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Fruehwirth-Schnatter; Heckman, James J.; Remi Piatek

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on \\emph{ad hoc} classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo s...

  2. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo st...

  3. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...

  4. Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Biagini, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

  5. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.

    2016-09-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  6. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. PMID:26224125

  7. A Bayesian modeling approach for estimation of a shape-free groundwater age distribution using multiple tracers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A Bayesian method is used to infer the freeform (histogram) age distributions. • The value at each bin was estimated using MCMC approach. • The method was applied to a synthetic tracer dataset and two real datasets. • The cumulative age distribution is captured better than the non-cumulative. • Less uncertainty is obtained when smaller number of bins is used. - Abstract: Due to the mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. The prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. The method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo

  8. Predictability of Regional Climate: A Bayesian Approach to Analysing a WRF Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Paimazumder, D.

    2013-12-01

    This study investigates aspects of climate predictability with a focus on climatic variables and different characteristics of extremes over nine North American climatic regions and two selected Atlantic sectors. An ensemble of state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations is used for the analysis. The ensemble is comprised of a combination of various physics schemes, initial conditions, domain sizes, boundary conditions and breeding techniques. The main objectives of this research are: 1) to increase our understanding of the ability of WRF to capture regional climate information - both at the individual and collective ensemble members, 2) to investigate the role of different members and their synergy in reproducing regional climate 3) to estimate the associated uncertainty. In this study, we propose a Bayesian framework to study the predictability of extremes and associated uncertainties in order to provide a wealth of knowledge about WRF reliability and provide further clarity and understanding of the sensitivities and optimal combinations. The choice of the Bayesian model, as opposed to standard methods, is made because: a) this method has a mean square error that is less than standard statistics, which makes it a more robust method; b) it allows for the use of small sample sizes, which are typical in high-resolution modeling; c) it provides a probabilistic view of uncertainty, which is useful when making decisions concerning ensemble members.

  9. Environmentally adaptive processing for shallow ocean applications: A sequential Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candy, J V

    2015-09-01

    The shallow ocean is a changing environment primarily due to temperature variations in its upper layers directly affecting sound propagation throughout. The need to develop processors capable of tracking these changes implies a stochastic as well as an environmentally adaptive design. Bayesian techniques have evolved to enable a class of processors capable of performing in such an uncertain, nonstationary (varying statistics), non-Gaussian, variable shallow ocean environment. A solution to this problem is addressed by developing a sequential Bayesian processor capable of providing a joint solution to the modal function tracking and environmental adaptivity problem. Here, the focus is on the development of both a particle filter and an unscented Kalman filter capable of providing reasonable performance for this problem. These processors are applied to hydrophone measurements obtained from a vertical array. The adaptivity problem is attacked by allowing the modal coefficients and/or wavenumbers to be jointly estimated from the noisy measurement data along with tracking of the modal functions while simultaneously enhancing the noisy pressure-field measurements. PMID:26428765

  10. A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

    2009-02-01

    Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

  11. Gas turbine engine prognostics using Bayesian hierarchical models: A variational approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidan, Martha A.; Mills, Andrew R.; Harrison, Robert F.; Fleming, Peter J.

    2016-03-01

    Prognostics is an emerging requirement of modern health monitoring that aims to increase the fidelity of failure-time predictions by the appropriate use of sensory and reliability information. In the aerospace industry it is a key technology to reduce life-cycle costs, improve reliability and asset availability for a diverse fleet of gas turbine engines. In this work, a Bayesian hierarchical model is selected to utilise fleet data from multiple assets to perform probabilistic estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) for civil aerospace gas turbine engines. The hierarchical formulation allows Bayesian updates of an individual predictive model to be made, based upon data received asynchronously from a fleet of assets with different in-service lives and for the entry of new assets into the fleet. In this paper, variational inference is applied to the hierarchical formulation to overcome the computational and convergence concerns that are raised by the numerical sampling techniques needed for inference in the original formulation. The algorithm is tested on synthetic data, where the quality of approximation is shown to be satisfactory with respect to prediction performance, computational speed, and ease of use. A case study of in-service gas turbine engine data demonstrates the value of integrating fleet data for accurately predicting degradation trajectories of assets.

  12. Improving the reliability of POD curves in NDI methods using a Bayesian inversion approach for uncertainty quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Abdessalem, A.; Jenson, F.; Calmon, P.

    2016-02-01

    This contribution provides an example of the possible advantages of adopting a Bayesian inversion approach to uncertainty quantification in nondestructive inspection methods. In such problem, the uncertainty associated to the random parameters is not always known and needs to be characterised from scattering signal measurements. The uncertainties may then correctly propagated in order to determine a reliable probability of detection curve. To this end, we establish a general Bayesian framework based on a non-parametric maximum likelihood function formulation and some priors from expert knowledge. However, the presented inverse problem is time-consuming and computationally intensive. To cope with this difficulty, we replace the real model by a surrogate one in order to speed-up the model evaluation and to make the problem to be computationally feasible for implementation. The least squares support vector regression is adopted as metamodelling technique due to its robustness to deal with non-linear problems. We illustrate the usefulness of this methodology through the control of tube with enclosed defect using ultrasonic inspection method.

  13. Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankararaman, Shankar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

  14. An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

    2011-01-01

    The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

  15. A Bayesian approach to quantify the contribution of animal-food sources to human salmonellosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Vose, D.; Wegener, Henrik Caspar;

    2004-01-01

    Based on the data from the integrated Danish Salmonella surveillance in 1999, we developed a mathematical model for quantifying the contribution of each of the major animal-food sources to human salmonellosis. The model was set up to calculate the number of domestic and sporadic cases caused...... by different Salmonella sero and phage types as a function of the prevalence of these Salmonella types in the animal-food sources and the amount of food source consumed. A multiparameter prior accounting for the presumed but unknown differences between serotypes and food sources with respect to causing human...... salmonellosis was also included. The joint posterior distribution was estimated by fitting the model to the reported number of domestic and sporadic cases per Salmonella type in a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The number of domestic and sporadic cases was obtained by subtracting...

  16. Point Process Algorithm: A New Bayesian Approach for Planet Signal Extraction with the Terrestrial Planet Finder

    CERN Document Server

    Marsh, K A; Ware, B

    2006-01-01

    The capability of the Terrestrial Planet Finder Interferometer (TPF-I) for planetary signal extraction, including both detection and spectral characterization, can be optimized by taking proper account of instrumental characteristics and astrophysical prior information. We have developed the Point Process Algorithm (PPA), a Bayesian technique for extracting planetary signals using the sine-chopped outputs of a dual nulling interferometer. It is so-called because it represents the system being observed as a set of points in a suitably-defined state space, thus providing a natural way of incorporating our prior knowledge of the compact nature of the targets of interest. It can also incorporate the spatial covariance of the exozodi as prior information which could help mitigate against false detections. Data at multiple wavelengths are used simultaneously, taking into account possible spectral variations of the planetary signals. Input parameters include the RMS measurement noise and the a priori probability of ...

  17. Analysis and assessment of injury risk in female gymnastics:Bayesian Network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyudmila Dimitrova

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a Bayesian network (BN model for estimating injury risk in female artistic gymnastics. The model illustrates the connections betweenunderlying injury risk factorsthrough a series ofcausal dependencies. The quantitativepart of the model – the conditional probability tables, are determined using ТNormal distribution with parameters, derived by experts. The injury rates calculated by the network are in an agreement with injury statistic data and correctly reports the impact of various risk factors on injury rates. The model is designed to assist coaches and supporting teams in planning the training activity so that injuries are minimized. This study provides important background for further data collection and research necessary to improve the precision of the quantitative predictions of the model.

  18. Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies for safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuator. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster when subjected to high electrical or thermal stress conditions during operations. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management. Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life based on their current state of heal th and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. The focus of this paper is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions and implementing Bayesian framework for making remaining useful life predictions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to remaining useful life in DC-DC converters.

  19. Insurance penetration and economic growth in Africa: Dynamic effects analysis using Bayesian TVP-VAR approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.O. Olayungbo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the dynamic interactions between insurance and economic growth in eight African countries for the period of 1970–2013. Insurance demand is measured by insurance penetration which accounts for income differences across the sample countries. A Bayesian Time Varying Parameter Vector Auto regression (TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility is used to analyze the short run and the long run among the variables of interest. Using insurance penetration as a measure of insurance to economic growth, we find positive relationship for Egypt, while short-run negative and long-run positive effects are found for Kenya, Mauritius, and South Africa. On the contrary, negative effects are found for Algeria, Nigeria, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. Implementation of sound financial reforms and wide insurance coverage are proposed recommendations for insurance development in the selected African countries.

  20. Using rotation measure grids to detect cosmological magnetic fields -- a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Vacca, V; Ensslin, T; Jasche, J; Selig, M; Greiner, M; Junklewitz, H; Reinecke, M; Brueggen, M; Carretti, E; Feretti, L; Ferrari, C; Hales, C A; Horellou, C; Ideguchi, S; Johnston-Hollitt, M; Pizzo, R F; Roettgering, H; Shimwell, T W; Takahashi, K

    2015-01-01

    Determining magnetic field properties in different environments of the cosmic large-scale structure as well as their evolution over redshift is a fundamental step toward uncovering the origin of cosmic magnetic fields. Radio observations permit the study of extragalactic magnetic fields via measurements of the Faraday depth of extragalactic radio sources. Our aim is to investigate how much different extragalactic environments contribute to the Faraday depth variance of these sources. We develop a Bayesian algorithm to distinguish statistically Faraday depth variance contributions intrinsic to the source from those due to the medium between the source and the observer. In our algorithm the Galactic foreground and the measurement noise are taken into account as the uncertainty correlations of the galactic model. Additionally, our algorithm allows for the investigation of possible redshift evolution of the extragalactic contribution. This work presents the derivation of the algorithm and tests performed on mock ...

  1. A Bayesian approach to quantify the contribution of animal-food sources to human salmonellosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine; Vose, D.; Wegener, Henrik Caspar; Koupeev, T.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the data from the integrated Danish Salmonella surveillance in 1999, we developed a mathematical model for quantifying the contribution of each of the major animal-food sources to human salmonellosis. The model was set up to calculate the number of domestic and sporadic cases caused by...... different Salmonella sero and phage types as a function of the prevalence of these Salmonella types in the animal-food sources and the amount of food source consumed. A multiparameter prior accounting for the presumed but unknown differences between serotypes and food sources with respect to causing human...... salmonellosis was also included. The joint posterior distribution was estimated by fitting the model to the reported number of domestic and sporadic cases per Salmonella type in a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The number of domestic and sporadic cases was obtained by subtracting...

  2. Non-arbitrage in financial markets: A Bayesian approach for verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerezetti, F. V.; Stern, Julio Michael

    2012-10-01

    The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - Full Bayesian Significance Test, if there is a relevant price difference between essentially the same financial asset traded at two distinct locations. Specifically, we investigate and compare the behavior of call options on the BOVESPA Index traded at (a) the Equities Segment and (b) the Derivatives Segment of BM&FBovespa. Our results seem to point out significant statistical differences. To what extent this evidence is actually the expression of perennial arbitrage opportunities is still an open question.

  3. Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: A Bayesian experimental design approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqiao; Lin, Guang; Li, Jinglai

    2016-05-01

    An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify the probability of undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples.

  4. The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

    2016-06-01

    This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

  5. A Bayesian approach to unanticipated events frequency estimation in the decision making context of a nuclear research reactor facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The Bayes’ theorem is employed to support the decision making process in a research reactor. • The intention is to calculate parameters related to unanticipated occurrence of events. • Frequency, posterior distribution and confidence limits are calculated. • The approach is demonstrated using two real-world numerical examples. • The approach can be used even if no failures have been observed. - Abstract: Research reactors are considered as multi-tasking environments having the multiple roles of commercial, research and training facilities. Yet, reactor managers have to make decisions, frequently with high economic impact, based on little available knowledge. A systematic approach employing the Bayes’ theorem is proposed to support the decision making process in a research reactor environment. This approach is characterized by low level complexity, appropriate for research reactor facilities. The methodology is demonstrated through the study of two characteristic events that lead to unanticipated system shutdown, namely the de-energization of the control rod magnet and the flapper valve opening. The results obtained demonstrate the suitability of the Bayesian approach in the decision making context when unanticipated events are considered

  6. Bayesian and Geostatistical Approaches to Combining Categorical Data Derived from Visual and Digital Processing of Remotely Sensed Images

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Jingxiong; LI Deren

    2005-01-01

    This paper seeks a synthesis of Bayesian and geostatistical approaches to combining categorical data in the context of remote sensing classification.By experiment with aerial photographs and Landsat TM data, accuracy of spectral, spatial, and combined classification results was evaluated.It was confirmed that the incorporation of spatial information in spectral classification increases accuracy significantly.Secondly, through test with a 5-class and a 3-class classification schemes, it was revealed that setting a proper semantic framework for classification is fundamental to any endeavors of categorical mapping and the most important factor affecting accuracy.Lastly, this paper promotes non-parametric methods for both definition of class membership profiling based on band-specific histograms of image intensities and derivation of spatial probability via indicator kriging, a non-parametric geostatistical technique.

  7. Classification of Micro Array Gene Expression Data using Factor Analysis Approach with Naïve Bayesian Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamilselvi Madeswaran

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Microarray data studies produce large number of data and in order to analyze such large micro array data lies on Data mining or Statistical Analysis. Our objective is to classify the micro arraygene expression data. Usually before going for the classification the dimensionality reduction will be performed on the micro array gene expression dataset. A statistical approach for the extraction of thegene has been proposed. The drawback in the statistical analysis is that, it doesn’t identify the important genes. Here for the classification process we use k-nearest neighbor and SVM and Naïve Bayesian classifiers. From the experimental result our proposed classifiers show increase in the efficiency and accuracy.

  8. Unsupervised Group Discovery and LInk Prediction in Relational Datasets: a nonparametric Bayesian approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koutsourelakis, P

    2007-05-03

    Clustering represents one of the most common statistical procedures and a standard tool for pattern discovery and dimension reduction. Most often the objects to be clustered are described by a set of measurements or observables e.g. the coordinates of the vectors, the attributes of people. In a lot of cases however the available observations appear in the form of links or connections (e.g. communication or transaction networks). This data contains valuable information that can in general be exploited in order to discover groups and better understand the structure of the dataset. Since in most real-world datasets, several of these links are missing, it is also useful to develop procedures that can predict those unobserved connections. In this report we address the problem of unsupervised group discovery in relational datasets. A fundamental issue in all clustering problems is that the actual number of clusters is unknown a priori. In most cases this is addressed by running the model several times assuming a different number of clusters each time and selecting the value that provides the best fit based on some criterion (ie Bayes factor in the case of Bayesian techniques). It is easily understood that it would be preferable to develop techniques that are able to number of clusters is essentially learned from that data along with the rest of model parameters. For that purpose, we adopt a nonparametric Bayesian framework which provides a very flexible modeling environment in which the size of the model i.e. the number of clusters, can adapt to the available data and readily accommodate outliers. The latter is particularly important since several groups of interest might consist of a small number of members and would most likely be smeared out by traditional modeling techniques. Finally, the proposed framework combines all the advantages of standard Bayesian techniques such as integration of prior knowledge in a principled manner, seamless accommodation of missing data

  9. A new hierarchical Bayesian approach to analyse environmental and climatic influences on debris flow occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomelli, Vincent; Pavlova, Irina; Eckert, Nicolas; Grancher, Delphine; Brunstein, Daniel

    2015-12-01

    How can debris flow occurrences be modelled at regional scale and take both environmental and climatic conditions into account? And, of the two, which has the most influence on debris flow activity? In this paper, we try to answer these questions with an innovative Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic model that simultaneously accounts for how debris flows respond to environmental and climatic variables. In it, full decomposition of space and time effects in occurrence probabilities is assumed, revealing an environmental and a climatic trend shared by all years/catchments, respectively, clearly distinguished from residual "random" effects. The resulting regional and annual occurrence probabilities evaluated as functions of the covariates make it possible to weight the respective contribution of the different terms and, more generally, to check the model performances at different spatio-temporal scales. After suitable validation, the model can be used to make predictions at undocumented sites and could be used in further studies for predictions under future climate conditions. Also, the Bayesian paradigm easily copes with missing data, thus making it possible to account for events that may have been missed during surveys. As a case study, we extract 124 debris flow event triggered between 1970 and 2005 in 27 catchments located in the French Alps from the French national natural hazard survey and model their variability of occurrence considering environmental and climatic predictors at the same time. We document the environmental characteristics of each debris flow catchment (morphometry, lithology, land cover, and the presence of permafrost). We also compute 15 climate variables including mean temperature and precipitation between May and October and the number of rainy days with daily cumulative rainfall greater than 10/15/20/25/30/40 mm day- 1. Application of our model shows that the combination of environmental and climatic predictors explained 77% of the overall

  10. Abordagem bayesiana da sensitividade de modelos para o coeficiente de endogamia Bayesian approach to sensitivity of models for inbreeding coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Luis dos Reis

    2009-09-01

    assessed by many methods available at R package BOA. Results showed that the model 1 presents the best performance for both simulation study and actual data. The results also showed that the Bayesian approach provides models that are useful for the analysis of the Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium and inbreeding coefficient.

  11. A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

    2015-04-01

    It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network

  12. A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model seasonal algal variability along an upstream to downstream river gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, YoonKyung; Soon Park, Seok; Won Lee, Hye; Stow, Craig A.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling to accurately predict river phytoplankton distribution and abundance is important in water quality and resource management. Nevertheless, the complex nature of eutrophication processes in highly connected river systems makes the task challenging. To model dynamics of river phytoplankton, represented by chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that explicitly accommodates seasonality and upstream-downstream spatial gradient in the structure. The utility of our model is demonstrated with an application to the Nakdong River (South Korea), which is a eutrophic, intensively regulated river, but functions as an irreplaceable water source for more than 13 million people. Chl a is modeled with two manageable factors, river flow, and total phosphorus (TP) concentration. Our model results highlight the importance of taking seasonal and spatial context into account when describing flow regimes and phosphorus delivery in rivers. A contrasting positive Chl a-flow relationship across stations versus negative Chl a-flow slopes that arose when Chl a was modeled on a station-month basis is an illustration of Simpson's paradox, which necessitates modeling Chl a-flow relationships decomposed into seasonal and spatial components. Similar Chl a-TP slopes among stations and months suggest that, with the flow effect removed, positive TP effects on Chl a are uniform regardless of the season and station in the river. Our model prediction successfully captured the shift in the spatial and monthly patterns of Chl a.

  13. Hierarchical Bayesian approach for estimating physical properties in spiral galaxies: Age Maps for M74

    CERN Document Server

    Gil, M Carmen Sánchez; Alfaro, Emilio J; Pérez, Enrique; Sarro, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    One of the fundamental goals of modern Astronomy is to estimate the physical parameters of galaxies from images in different spectral bands. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for obtaining age maps from images in the \\Ha\\ line (taken with Taurus Tunable Filter (TTF)), ultraviolet band (far UV or FUV, from GALEX) and infrared bands (24, 70 and 160 microns ($\\mu$m), from Spitzer). As shown in S\\'anchez-Gil et al. (2011), we present the burst ages for young stellar populations in the nearby and nearly face on galaxy M74. As it is shown in the previous work, the \\Ha\\ to FUV flux ratio gives a good relative indicator of very recent star formation history (SFH). As a nascent star-forming region evolves, the \\Ha\\ line emission declines earlier than the UV continuum, leading to a decrease in the \\Ha\\/FUV ratio. Through a specific star-forming galaxy model (Starburst 99, SB99), we can obtain the corresponding theoretical ratio \\Ha\\ / FUV to compare with our observed flux ratios, and thus to estimate the ages of...

  14. A Bayesian approach to multi-messenger astronomy: identification of gravitational-wave host galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a general framework for incorporating astrophysical information into Bayesian parameter estimation techniques used by gravitational wave data analysis to facilitate multi-messenger astronomy. Since the progenitors of transient gravitational wave events, such as compact binary coalescences, are likely to be associated with a host galaxy, improvements to the source sky location estimates through the use of host galaxy information are explored. To demonstrate how host galaxy properties can be included, we simulate a population of compact binary coalescences and show that for ∼8.5% of simulations within 200 Mpc, the top 10 most likely galaxies account for a ∼50% of the total probability of hosting a gravitational wave source. The true gravitational wave source host galaxy is in the top 10 galaxy candidates ∼10% of the time. Furthermore, we show that by including host galaxy information, a better estimate of the inclination angle of a compact binary gravitational wave source can be obtained. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our method by incorporating the use of either the B or K band into our analysis.

  15. A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

    To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision, whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we projected the status of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) for decades centered on future years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2095. We defined four ecoregions based on current and projected sea ice conditions: seasonal ice, Canadian Archipelago, polar basin divergent, and polar basin convergent ecoregions. We incorporated general circulation model projections of future sea ice into a Bayesian network (BN) model structured around the factors considered in ESA decisions. This first-generation BN model combined empirical data, interpretations of data, and professional judgments of one polar bear expert into a probabilistic framework that identifies causal links between environmental stressors and polar bear responses. We provide guidance regarding steps necessary to refine the model, including adding inputs from other experts. The BN model projected extirpation of polar bears from the seasonal ice and polar basin divergent ecoregions, where ≈2/3 of the world's polar bears currently occur, by mid century. Projections were less dire in other ecoregions. Decline in ice habitat was the overriding factor driving the model outcomes. Although this is a first-generation model, the dependence of polar bears on sea ice is universally accepted, and the observed sea ice decline is faster than models suggest. Therefore, incorporating judgments of multiple experts in a final model is not expected to fundamentally alter the outlook for polar bears described here.

  16. Paired Comparison Analysis of the van Baaren Model Using Bayesian Approach with Noninformative Prior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saima Altaf

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available 800x600 Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} One technique being commonly studied these days because of its attractive applications for the comparison of several objects is the method of paired comparisons. This technique permits the ranking of the objects by means of a score, which reflects the merit of the items on a linear scale. The present study is concerned with the Bayesian analysis of a paired comparison model, namely the van Baaren model VI using noninformative uniform prior. For this purpose, the joint posterior distribution for the parameters of the model, their marginal distributions, posterior estimates (means and modes, the posterior probabilities for comparing the two treatment parameters and the predictive probabilities are obtained.

  17. A Bayesian Approach to Inferring Rates of Selfing and Locus-Specific Mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelings, Benjamin D; Kumagai, Seiji; Tatarenkov, Andrey; Wang, Liuyang; Sakai, Ann K; Weller, Stephen G; Culley, Theresa M; Avise, John C; Uyenoyama, Marcy K

    2015-11-01

    We present a Bayesian method for characterizing the mating system of populations reproducing through a mixture of self-fertilization and random outcrossing. Our method uses patterns of genetic variation across the genome as a basis for inference about reproduction under pure hermaphroditism, gynodioecy, and a model developed to describe the self-fertilizing killifish Kryptolebias marmoratus. We extend the standard coalescence model to accommodate these mating systems, accounting explicitly for multilocus identity disequilibrium, inbreeding depression, and variation in fertility among mating types. We incorporate the Ewens sampling formula (ESF) under the infinite-alleles model of mutation to obtain a novel expression for the likelihood of mating system parameters. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm assigns locus-specific mutation rates, drawn from a common mutation rate distribution that is itself estimated from the data using a Dirichlet process prior model. Our sampler is designed to accommodate additional information, including observations pertaining to the sex ratio, the intensity of inbreeding depression, and other aspects of reproduction. It can provide joint posterior distributions for the population-wide proportion of uniparental individuals, locus-specific mutation rates, and the number of generations since the most recent outcrossing event for each sampled individual. Further, estimation of all basic parameters of a given model permits estimation of functions of those parameters, including the proportion of the gene pool contributed by each sex and relative effective numbers. PMID:26374460

  18. Testing pre-main sequence models: the power of a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gennaro, Mario; Tognelli, Emanuele

    2011-01-01

    Pre-main sequence (PMS) models provide invaluable tools for the study of star forming regions as they allow to assign masses and ages to young stars. Thus it is of primary importance to test the models against observations of PMS stars with dynamically determined mass. We developed a Bayesian method for testing the present generation of PMS models which allows for a quantitative comparison with observations, largely superseding the widely used isochrones and tracks qualitative superposition. Using the available PMS data we tested the newest PISA PMS models establishing their good agreement with the observations. The data cover a mass range from ~0.3 to ~3.1 Msun, temperatures from ~3x10^3 to ~1.2x10^4 K and luminosities from ~3x10^-2 to ~60 Lsun. Masses are correctly predicted within 20% of the observed values in most of the cases and for some of them the difference is as small as 5%. Nevertheless some discrepancies are also observed and critically discussed. By means of simulations, using typical observation...

  19. Lattice NRQCD study on in-medium bottomonium spectra using a novel Bayesian reconstruction approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present recent results on the in-medium modification of S- and P-wave bottomonium states around the deconfinement transition. Our study uses lattice QCD with Nf = 2 + 1 light quark flavors to describe the non-perturbative thermal QCD medium between 140MeV < T < 249MeV and deploys lattice regularized non-relativistic QCD (NRQCD) effective field theory to capture the physics of heavy quark bound states immersed therein. The spectral functions of the 3S1 (ϒ) and 3P1 (χb1) bottomonium states are extracted from Euclidean time Monte Carlo simulations using a novel Bayesian prescription, which provides higher accuracy than the Maximum Entropy Method. Based on a systematic comparison of interacting and free spectral functions we conclude that the ground states of both the S-wave (ϒ) and P-wave (χb1) channel survive up to T = 249MeV. Stringent upper limits on the size of the in-medium modification of bottomonium masses and widths are provided

  20. Using rotation measure grids to detect cosmological magnetic fields: A Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacca, V.; Oppermann, N.; Enßlin, T.; Jasche, J.; Selig, M.; Greiner, M.; Junklewitz, H.; Reinecke, M.; Brüggen, M.; Carretti, E.; Feretti, L.; Ferrari, C.; Hales, C. A.; Horellou, C.; Ideguchi, S.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Pizzo, R. F.; Röttgering, H.; Shimwell, T. W.; Takahashi, K.

    2016-06-01

    Determining magnetic field properties in different environments of the cosmic large-scale structure as well as their evolution over redshift is a fundamental step toward uncovering the origin of cosmic magnetic fields. Radio observations permit the study of extragalactic magnetic fields via measurements of the Faraday depth of extragalactic radio sources. Our aim is to investigate how much different extragalactic environments contribute to the Faraday depth variance of these sources. We develop a Bayesian algorithm to distinguish statistically Faraday depth variance contributions intrinsic to the source from those due to the medium between the source and the observer. In our algorithm the Galactic foreground and measurement noise are taken into account as the uncertainty correlations of the Galactic model. Additionally, our algorithm allows for the investigation of possible redshift evolution of the extragalactic contribution. This work presents the derivation of the algorithm and tests performed on mock observations. Because cosmic magnetism is one of the key science projects of the new generation of radio interferometers, we have predicted the performance of our algorithm on mock data collected with these instruments. According to our tests, high-quality catalogs of a few thousands of sources should already enable us to investigate magnetic fields in the cosmic structure.

  1. Modeling of Radiation Pneumonitis after Lung Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy: A Bayesian Network Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sangkyu; Jeyaseelan, Krishinima; Faria, Sergio; Kopek, Neil; Brisebois, Pascale; Vu, Toni; Filion, Edith; Campeau, Marie-Pierre; Lambert, Louise; Del Vecchio, Pierre; Trudel, Diane; El-Sokhn, Nidale; Roach, Michael; Robinson, Clifford; Naqa, Issam El

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose: Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for lung cancer accompanies a non-negligible risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP). This study presents a Bayesian network (BN) model that connects biological, dosimetric, and clinical RP risk factors. Material and Methods: 43 non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with SBRT with 5 fractions or less were studied. Candidate RP risk factors included dose-volume parameters, previously reported clinical RP factors, 6 protein biomarkers at baseline and 6 weeks post-treatment. A BN ensemble model was built from a subset of the variables in a training cohort (N=32), and further tested in an independent validation cohort (N=11). Results: Key factors identified in the BN ensemble for predicting RP risk were ipsilateral V5, lung volume receiving more than 105% of prescription, and decrease in angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) from baseline to 6 weeks. External validation of the BN ensemble model yielded an area under the curve of 0.8. Conclusions: The BN...

  2. How can we interpret and understand pulsations in solar flare emission? A Bayesian model comparison approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inglis, Andrew; Ireland, Jack; Dominique, Marie

    2015-04-01

    Recent work has shown that power-law-like Fourier power spectra are an intrinsic property of solar and stellar flare signals, similarly to other astrophysical objects such as gamma-ray bursts and magnetars. It is therefore critical to account for this in order to understand the nature and significance of short-timescale fluctuations in flares.We present the results of a Bayesian model comparison method for investigating flare time series, fully considering these Fourier power-law properties. Using data from the PROBA2/Large Yield Radiometer, Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and Yohkoh/HXT instruments, we study a selection of flares from the literature identified as 'quasi-periodic puslation (QPP)' events. While emphasising that the observed fluctuations are real and of solar origin, we find that, for all but one event tested, an explicit oscillation is not required to explain the observations. Instead, the observed flare signals are adequately described as a manifestation of a power law in the Fourier power spectrum. This evaluation of the QPP phenomenon is markedly different from much of the prior literature.We conclude that the prevalence of oscillatory signatures in solar and stellar flares may be less than previously believed. Furthermore, studying the slope of the observed Fourier power spectrum as a function of energy may provide us with a diagnostic window into the fundamental nature of solar flares.

  3. A Bayesian approach to modeling and predicting pitting flaws in steam generator tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steam generators in nuclear power plants have experienced varying degrees of under-deposit pitting corrosion. A probabilistic model to accurately predict pitting damage is necessary for effective life-cycle management of steam generators. This paper presents an advanced probabilistic model of pitting corrosion characterizing the inherent randomness of the pitting process and measurement uncertainties of the in-service inspection (ISI) data obtained from eddy current (EC) inspections. A Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation-based Bayesian method, enhanced by a data augmentation technique, is developed for estimating the model parameters. The proposed model is able to predict the actual pit number, the actual pit depth as well as the maximum pit depth, which is the main interest of the pitting corrosion model. The study also reveals the significance of inspection uncertainties in the modeling of pitting flaws using the ISI data: Without considering the probability-of-detection issues and measurement errors, the leakage risk resulted from the pitting corrosion would be under-estimated, despite the fact that the actual pit depth would usually be over-estimated.

  4. Estimation of CO2 flux from targeted satellite observations: a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider the estimation of carbon dioxide flux at the ocean–atmosphere interface, given weighted averages of the mixing ratio in a vertical atmospheric column. In particular we examine the dependence of the posterior covariance on the weighting function used in taking observations, motivated by the fact that this function is instrument-dependent, hence one needs the ability to compare different weights. The estimation problem is considered using a variational data assimilation method, which is shown to admit an equivalent infinite-dimensional Bayesian formulation. The main tool in our investigation is an explicit formula for the posterior covariance in terms of the prior covariance and observation operator. Using this formula, we compare weighting functions concentrated near the surface of the earth with those concentrated near the top of the atmosphere, in terms of the resulting covariance operators. We also consider the problem of observational targeting, and ask if it is possible to reduce the covariance in a prescribed direction through an appropriate choice of weighting function. We find that this is not the case—there exist directions in which one can never gain information, regardless of the choice of weight. (paper)

  5. 基于Bayes方法的炼油厂采购策略%Oil refinery procurement strategies: A Bayesian approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢智雪; 郑力

    2012-01-01

    国际原油现货市场价格剧烈波动,炼厂常用的采购策略不能应对由此产生的价格风险,该文针对这一问题提出了采购策略。以最小化总成本现值的期望为目标,根据原油采购的特点建立了动态规划模型,采用随机微积分方法分析了最优静态策略,并引入Bayes决策方法得到了动态策略。利用国际石油市场中某种基准原油近26年的历史价格数据,验证了模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明:基于Bayes方法的采购策略相比炼厂目前使用的策略能显著降低总成本,适用于原油采购问题。%Current oil refinery procurement strategies do not deal well with purchase price uncertainties on the international crude oil spot market with fluctuating prices. A dynamic programming model was developed to minimize the expected present value of the total cost of oil purchases. Stochastic calculus is used to find the static optimal solution, with a Bayesian decision framework then introduced to find the adaptive strategy. Real data for 26 years of historical prices of one marker on the crude spot market was used to test the effectiveness of the Bayesian-based procurement approach. The results show the potential of this strategy for reducing costs compared with current refinery practices.

  6. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  7. A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Hiwa; Türker, Tügba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-03-01

    In this study, we used the program for seismic hazard Bayesian estimate which was elaborated by Alexey Lyubushin. Our study is the next in the sequence of applications of this software to seismic hazard assessment in different regions of the world. However, earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (M_{ max }), β value and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Iranian Plateau have been evaluated with the help of a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue during the period 1900-2014 with M_{w} ≥4.0. The estimated M_{ max } values varies between 6.25 and 8.37. Lowest value is observed in the Zagros foredeep whereas highest value is observed in the Makran. Also, it is observed that there is a strong relationship between the estimated maximum earthquake magnitudes estimated by Bayesian approach and maximum observed magnitudes. Moreover, in this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in 15 different source regions. Based on computed earthquake hazard parameters, the prerequisite guides to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Iranian Plateau. The Makran and East Iran show earthquake magnitude greater than 8.0 in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other regions, which declares that these regions are more susceptible to occurrence of large earthquakes. The outcomes which obtained in the study may have useful implications in the probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Iranian Plateau.

  8. An Automatic Multidocument Text Summarization Approach Based on Naïve Bayesian Classifier Using Timestamp Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nedunchelian Ramanujam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, automatic multidocument text summarization systems can successfully retrieve the summary sentences from the input documents. But, it has many limitations such as inaccurate extraction to essential sentences, low coverage, poor coherence among the sentences, and redundancy. This paper introduces a new concept of timestamp approach with Naïve Bayesian Classification approach for multidocument text summarization. The timestamp provides the summary an ordered look, which achieves the coherent looking summary. It extracts the more relevant information from the multiple documents. Here, scoring strategy is also used to calculate the score for the words to obtain the word frequency. The higher linguistic quality is estimated in terms of readability and comprehensibility. In order to show the efficiency of the proposed method, this paper presents the comparison between the proposed methods with the existing MEAD algorithm. The timestamp procedure is also applied on the MEAD algorithm and the results are examined with the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method results in lesser time than the existing MEAD algorithm to execute the summarization process. Moreover, the proposed method results in better precision, recall, and F-score than the existing clustering with lexical chaining approach.

  9. Practical Bayesian Tomography

    CERN Document Server

    Granade, Christopher; Cory, D G

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of- the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we solve all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Husz\\'ar and Houlsby and by Ferrie, to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first informative priors on quantum states and channels. Finally, we develop a method that allows online tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  10. A Survey of Model Evaluation Approaches with a Tutorial on Hierarchical Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiffrin, Richard M.; Lee, Michael D.; Kim, Woojae; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews current methods for evaluating models in the cognitive sciences, including theoretically based approaches, such as Bayes factors and minimum description length measures; simulation approaches, including model mimicry evaluations; and practical approaches, such as validation and generalization measures. This article argues…

  11. MEG source localization of spatially extended generators of epileptic activity: comparing entropic and hierarchical bayesian approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasheda Arman Chowdhury

    Full Text Available Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm(2 to 30 cm(2, whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered.

  12. A Bayesian approach for inverse modeling, data assimilation, and conditional simulation of spatial random fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Yoram; Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie

    2010-10-01

    This paper addresses the inverse problem in spatially variable fields such as hydraulic conductivity in groundwater aquifers or rainfall intensity in hydrology. Common to all these problems is the existence of a complex pattern of spatial variability of the target variables and observations, the multiple sources of data available for characterizing the fields, the complex relations between the observed and target variables and the multiple scales and frequencies of the observations. The method of anchored distributions (MAD) that we propose here is a general Bayesian method of inverse modeling of spatial random fields that addresses this complexity. The central elements of MAD are a modular classification of all relevant data and a new concept called "anchors." Data types are classified by the way they relate to the target variable, as either local or nonlocal and as either direct or indirect. Anchors are devices for localization of data: they are used to convert nonlocal, indirect data into local distributions of the target variables. The target of the inversion is the derivation of the joint distribution of the anchors and structural parameters, conditional to all measurements, regardless of scale or frequency of measurement. The structural parameters describe large-scale trends of the target variable fields, whereas the anchors capture local inhomogeneities. Following inversion, the joint distribution of anchors and structural parameters is used for generating random fields of the target variable(s) that are conditioned on the nonlocal, indirect data through their anchor representation. We demonstrate MAD through a detailed case study that assimilates point measurements of the conductivity with head measurements from natural gradient flow. The resulting statistical distributions of the parameters are non-Gaussian. Similarly, the moments of the estimates of the hydraulic head are non-Gaussian. We provide an extended discussion of MAD vis à vis other inversion

  13. An Approach for Improving Prediction in River System Models Using Bayesian Probabilities of Parameter Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. S. H.; Hughes, J. D.; Chen, J.; Dutta, D.; Vaze, J.

    2014-12-01

    Achieving predictive success is a major challenge in hydrological modelling. Predictive metrics indicate whether models and parameters are appropriate for impact assessment, design, planning and management, forecasting and underpinning policy. It is often found that very different parameter sets and model structures are equally acceptable system representations (commonly described as equifinality). Furthermore, parameters that produce the best goodness of fit during a calibration period may often yield poor results outside of that period. A calibration method is presented that uses a recursive Bayesian filter to estimate the probability of consistent performance of parameter sets in different sub-periods. The result is a probability distribution for each specified performance interval. This generic method utilises more information within time-series data than what is typically used for calibrations, and could be adopted for different types of time-series modelling applications. Where conventional calibration methods implicitly identify the best performing parameterisations on average, the new method looks at the consistency of performance during sub-periods. The proposed calibration method, therefore, can be used to avoid heavy weighting toward rare periods of good agreement. The method is trialled in a conceptual river system model called the Australian Water Resources Assessments River (AWRA-R) model in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The new method is tested via cross-validation and results are compared to a traditional split-sample calibration/validation to evaluate the new technique's ability to predict daily streamflow. The results showed that the new calibration method could produce parameterisations that performed better in validation periods than optimum calibration parameter sets. The method shows ability to improve on predictive performance and provide more realistic flux terms compared to traditional split-sample calibration methods.

  14. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...... corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  15. A General Bayesian Network Approach to Analyzing Online Game Item Values and Its Influence on Consumer Satisfaction and Purchase Intention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kun Chang; Park, Bong-Won

    Many online game users purchase game items with which to play free-to-play games. Because of a lack of research into which there is no specified framework for categorizing the values of game items, this study proposes four types of online game item values based on an analysis of literature regarding online game characteristics. It then proposes to investigate how online game users perceive satisfaction and purchase intention from the proposed four types of online game item values. Though regression analysis has been used frequently to answer this kind of research question, we propose a new approach, a General Bayesian Network (GBN), which can be performed in an understandable way without sacrificing predictive accuracy. Conventional techniques, such as regression analysis, do not provide significant explanation for this kind of problem because they are fixed to a linear structure and are limited in explaining why customers are likely to purchase game items and if they are satisfied with their purchases. In contrast, the proposed GBN provides a flexible underlying structure based on questionnaire survey data and offers robust decision support on this kind of research question by identifying its causal relationships. To illustrate the validity of GBN in solving the research question in this study, 327 valid questionnaires were analyzed using GBN with what-if and goal-seeking approaches. The experimental results were promising and meaningful in comparison with regression analysis results.

  16. A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects

    OpenAIRE

    Chivatá Cárdenas, I.C.; Al-jibouri, S.H.S.; Halman, J.I.M.; Telichenko, V.; Volkov, A.; Bilchuk, I.

    2012-01-01

    Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out ...

  17. Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists’ preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Nataša Papić-Blagojević; Tamara Gajić; Nenad Đokić

    2012-01-01

    Marketing approach is associated to market conditions and achieving long term profitability of a company by satisfying consumers’ needs. This approach in tourism does not have to be related only to promoting one touristic destination, but is associated to relation between travel agency and its clients too. It considers that travel agencies adjust their offers to their clients’ needs. In that sense, it is important to analyze the behavior of tourists in the earlier periods with consideration o...

  18. Multi-tissue computational modeling analyzes pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes in MKR mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar

    Full Text Available Computational models using metabolic reconstructions for in silico simulation of metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM can provide a better understanding of disease pathophysiology and avoid high experimentation costs. There is a limited amount of computational work, using metabolic reconstructions, performed in this field for the better understanding of T2DM. In this study, a new algorithm for generating tissue-specific metabolic models is presented, along with the resulting multi-confidence level (MCL multi-tissue model. The effect of T2DM on liver, muscle, and fat in MKR mice was first studied by microarray analysis and subsequently the changes in gene expression of frank T2DM MKR mice versus healthy mice were applied to the multi-tissue model to test the effect. Using the first multi-tissue genome-scale model of all metabolic pathways in T2DM, we found out that branched-chain amino acids' degradation and fatty acids oxidation pathway is downregulated in T2DM MKR mice. Microarray data showed low expression of genes in MKR mice versus healthy mice in the degradation of branched-chain amino acids and fatty-acid oxidation pathways. In addition, the flux balance analysis using the MCL multi-tissue model showed that the degradation pathways of branched-chain amino acid and fatty acid oxidation were significantly downregulated in MKR mice versus healthy mice. Validation of the model was performed using data derived from the literature regarding T2DM. Microarray data was used in conjunction with the model to predict fluxes of various other metabolic pathways in the T2DM mouse model and alterations in a number of pathways were detected. The Type 2 Diabetes MCL multi-tissue model may explain the high level of branched-chain amino acids and free fatty acids in plasma of Type 2 Diabetic subjects from a metabolic fluxes perspective.

  19. Estimation of hydrological and thermal parameters in the hyporheic zone using a novel Bayesian inverse modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Karina; Flipo, Nicolas; Rivière, Agnès; Rubin, Yoram

    2016-04-01

    Hydrothermal properties of the stream-aquifer interface are key information for modeling water and heat transfers in hydrological basins. Our study introduces an algorithm to estimate hydrological and thermal parameters of the hyporheic zone (HZ), as well as their associated uncertainties. Properties of the HZ are inferred from a combination of head differential time series and vertically-distributed temperature time series measured continually in a HZ vertical profile. Head differential and two temperature time series are used as boundary conditions for the vertical profile; the other temperature time series are used as conditioning measurements. Following the Bayesian framework, model parameters are treated as random variables and we seek to characterize their probability density function (PDF) conditional on the temperature time series. Our algorithm follows the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD) implemented in the MAD# software. In order to cut down the number of simulations needed, we develop a hybrid discrete-continuous inversion approach. We first identify the most sensitive parameters in a sensitivity analysis, these parameters are characterized with continuous PDFs. Less sensitive parameters are represented with a discrete PDFs using a finite number of discrete outcomes. We use a non-parametric likelihood function and time series dimension reduction techniques in order to calculate posterior PDFs of HZ parameters. We demonstrate the approach on a synthetic study using an analytical solution and then apply it to field measurements gathered in the Avenelles basin, France. We present one application of this approach, the uncertainty-quantified time series of localized stream-aquifer exchanges.

  20. TH-A-BRF-01: A Probabilistic Bayesian Approach to Derive Electron Density From MRI for Radiation Therapy Treatment Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: MRI significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of target delineation for patient simulation and treatment planning in radiation therapy, due to its superior soft tissue contrast as compared to CT. An MRI based simulation will reduce cost and simplify clinical workflow with zero ionizing radiation. However, MRI lacks the key electron density information. The purpose of this work is to develop a reliable method to derive electron density from MRI. Methods: We adopt a probabilistic Bayesian approach for electron density mapping based on T1-weighted head MRI. For each voxel, we compute conditional probability of electron densities given its: (1) T1 intensity and (2) geometry in a reference anatomy, obtained by deformable image registration between the MRI of test patient and atlas. Intensity and geometry information are combined into a unifying posterior probability density function whose mean gives the electron density. Mean absolute HU error between the estimated and true CT, as well as ROC's for bone detection (HU>200) were calculated for 8 patients. The performance was compared with a global intensity approach based on T1 and no density correction (set whole head to water). Results: The proposed technique significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 132, compared with 139 for deformable registration (p=10−3), 371 for the intensity approach (p=10−5) and 282 without density correction (p=2×10−4). For 90% sensitivity in bone detection, the proposed method had a specificity of 85% and that for deformable registration, intensity and without density correction are 80%, 24% and 10% respectively. Conclusion: The proposed unifying method provides accurate electron density estimation and bone detection from MRI of the head with highly heterogeneous regions. This paves the way for accurate dose calculation and generating reference images for patient setup in MRI-based treatment planning

  1. Regional-scale integration of multiresolution hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Paolo; Irving, James; Gloaguen, Erwan; Holliger, Klaus

    2013-07-01

    Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying "true" hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic

  2. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Boitard

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey, PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

  3. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  4. A Bayesian approach for energy-based estimation of acoustic aberrations in high intensity focused ultrasound treatment

    CERN Document Server

    Hosseini, Bamdad; Pichardo, Samuel; Constanciel, Elodie; Drake, James M; Stockie, John M

    2016-01-01

    High intensity focused ultrasound is a non-invasive method for treatment of diseased tissue that uses a beam of ultrasound in order to generate heat within a small volume. A common challenge in application of this technique is that heterogeneity of the biological medium can defocus the ultrasound beam. In this study, the problem of refocusing the beam is reduced to the Bayesian inverse problem of estimating the acoustic aberration due to the biological tissue from acoustic radiative force imaging data. The solution to this problem is a posterior probability density on the aberration which is sampled using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm. The framework is tested using both a synthetic and experimental dataset. This new approach has the ability to obtain a good estimate of the aberrations from a small dataset, as little as 32 sonication tests, which can lead to significant speedup in the treatment process. Furthermore, this framework is very flexible and can work with a wide range of sonication tests and so...

  5. Mode width fitting with a simple bayesian approach. Application to CoRoT targets HD 181420 and HD 49933

    CERN Document Server

    Gaulme, P; Boumier, P; 10.1051/0004-6361/200911920

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the asteroseismology of two solar-like targets as observed with the CoRoT satellite, with particular attention paid to the mode fitting. HD 181420 and HD 49933 are typical CoRoT solar-like targets (156 and 60-day runs). The low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of about 3-10 prevents us from unambiguously identifying the individual oscillation modes. In particular, convergence problems appear at the edges of the oscillation spectrum. HD 181420 and HD 49933 are typical CoRoT solar-like targets (156 and 60-day runs). The low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of about 3-10 prevents us from unambiguously identifying the individual oscillation modes. In particular, convergence problems appear at the edges of the oscillation spectrum. We apply a Bayesian approach to the analysis of these data. We compare the global fitting of the power spectra of this time series, obtained by the classical maximum likelihood (MLE) and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators. We examine the impact of the choice of the priors up...

  6. A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (Part II); Distances to the Satellites of M31

    CERN Document Server

    Conn, Anthony R; Lewis, Geraint F; Parker, Quentin A; Zucker, Daniel B; Martin, Nicolas F; McConnachie, Alan W; Irwin, Mike J; Tanvir, Nial; Fardal, Mark A; Ferguson, Annette M N; Chapman, Scott C; Valls-Gabaud, David

    2012-01-01

    In `A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (PART I),' a new technique was introduced for obtaining distances using the TRGB standard candle. Here we describe a useful complement to the technique with the potential to further reduce the uncertainty in our distance measurements by incorporating a matched-filter weighting scheme into the model likelihood calculations. In this scheme, stars are weighted according to their probability of being true object members. We then re-test our modified algorithm using random-realization artificial data to verify the validity of the generated posterior probability distributions (PPDs) and proceed to apply the algorithm to the satellite system of M31, culminating in a 3D view of the system. Further to the distributions thus obtained, we apply a satellite-specific prior on the satellite distances to weight the resulting distance posterior distributions, based on the halo density profile. Thus in a single publication, using a single method, a compreh...

  7. The ambient dose equivalent at flight altitudes: a fit to a large set of data using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of finding a simple, generally applicable description of worldwide measured ambient dose equivalent rates at aviation altitudes between 8 and 12 km is difficult to solve due to the large variety of functional forms and parametrisations that are possible. We present an approach that uses Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods to fit mathematical models to a large set of data and to compare the different models. About 2500 data points measured in the periods 1997-1999 and 2003-2006 were used. Since the data cover wide ranges of barometric altitude, vertical cut-off rigidity and phases in the solar cycle 23, we developed functions which depend on these three variables. Whereas the dependence on the vertical cut-off rigidity is described by an exponential, the dependences on barometric altitude and solar activity may be approximated by linear functions in the ranges under consideration. Therefore, a simple Taylor expansion was used to define different models and to investigate the relevance of the different expansion coefficients. With the method presented here, it is possible to obtain probability distributions for each expansion coefficient and thus to extract reliable uncertainties even for the dose rate evaluated. The resulting function agrees well with new measurements made at fixed geographic positions and during long haul flights covering a wide range of latitudes.

  8. A fully Bayesian approach to the parcel-based detection-estimation of brain activity in fMRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makni, S. [Univ Oxford, John Radcliffe Hosp, Oxford Ctr Funct Magnet Resonance Imaging Brain, Oxford OX3 9DU (United Kingdom); Idier, J. [IRCCyN CNRS, Nantes (France); Vincent, T.; Ciuciu, P. [CEA, NeuroSpin, Gif Sur Yvette (France); Vincent, T.; Dehaene-Lambertz, G.; Ciuciu, P. [Inst Imagerie Neurofonctionnelle, IFR 49, Paris (France); Thirion, B. [INRIA Futurs, Orsay (France); Dehaene-Lambertz, G. [INSERM, NeuroSpin, U562, Gif Sur Yvette (France)

    2008-07-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, i. e., the detection of activated brain regions in response to an experimental task and the estimation of the underlying dynamics, also known as the characterisation of Hemodynamic response function (HRF). So far, both issues have been treated sequentially while it is known that the HRF model has a dramatic impact on the localisation of activations and that the HRF shape may vary from one region to another. In this paper, we conciliate both issues in a region-based joint detection-estimation framework that we develop in the Bayesian formalism. Instead of considering function basis to account for spatial variability, spatially adaptive General Linear Models are built upon region-based non-parametric estimation of brain dynamics. Regions are first identified as functionally homogeneous parcels in the mask of the grey matter using a specific procedure [Thirion, B., Flandin, G., Pinel, P., Roche, A., Ciuciu, P., Poline, J.B., August 2006. Dealing with the shortcomings of spatial normalization: Multi-subject parcellation of fMRI datasets. Hum. Brain Mapp. 27 (8), 678-693.]. Then, in each parcel, prior information is embedded to constrain this estimation. Detection is achieved by modelling activating, deactivating and non-activating voxels through mixture models within each parcel. From the posterior distribution, we infer upon the model parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Bayesian model comparison allows us to emphasize on artificial datasets first that inhomogeneous gamma-Gaussian mixture models outperform Gaussian mixtures in terms of sensitivity/specificity trade-off and second that it is worthwhile modelling serial correlation through an AR(1) noise process at low signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. Our approach is then validated on an fMRI experiment that studies habituation to auditory sentence repetition. This phenomenon is clearly recovered as well as the hierarchical temporal

  9. A Bayesian approach to the inference of parametric configuration of the signal-to-noise ratio in an adaptive refinement of the measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Marquez, Maria Jose

    2012-01-01

    Calibration is nowadays one of the most important processes involved in the extraction of valuable data from measurements. The current availability of an optimum data cube measured from a heterogeneous set of instruments and surveys relies on a systematic and robust approach in the corresponding measurement analysis. In that sense, the inference of configurable instrument parameters can considerably increase the quality of the data obtained. This paper proposes a solution based on Bayesian in...

  10. Bayesian statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Draper, D.

    2001-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  11. A Bayesian Approach to Discovering Truth from Conflicting Sources for Data Integration

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Bo; Gemmell, Jim; Han, Jiawei

    2012-01-01

    In practical data integration systems, it is common for the data sources being integrated to provide conflicting information about the same entity. Consequently, a major challenge for data integration is to derive the most complete and accurate integrated records from diverse and sometimes conflicting sources. We term this challenge the truth finding problem. We observe that some sources are generally more reliable than others, and therefore a good model of source quality is the key to solving the truth finding problem. In this work, we propose a probabilistic graphical model that can automatically infer true records and source quality without any supervision. In contrast to previous methods, our principled approach leverages a generative process of two types of errors (false positive and false negative) by modeling two different aspects of source quality. In so doing, ours is also the first approach designed to merge multi-valued attribute types. Our method is scalable, due to an efficient sampling-based inf...

  12. A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (Part I)

    CERN Document Server

    Conn, A R; Ibata, R A; Parker, Q A; Zucker, D B; McConnachie, A W; Martin, N F; Irwin, M J; Tanvir, N; Fardal, M A; Ferguson, A M N

    2011-01-01

    We present a new approach for identifying the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) which, as we show, works robustly even on sparsely populated targets. Moreover, the approach is highly adaptable to the available data for the stellar population under study, with prior information readily incorporable into the algorithm. The uncertainty in the derived distances is also made tangible and easily calculable from posterior probability distributions. We provide an outline of the development of the algorithm and present the results of tests designed to characterize its capabilities and limitations. We then apply the new algorithm to three M31 satellites: Andromeda I, Andromeda II and the fainter Andromeda XXIII, using data from the Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey (PAndAS), and derive their distances as $731^{(+ 5) + 18}_{(- 4) - 17}$ kpc, $634^{(+ 2) + 15}_{(- 2) - 14}$ kpc and $733^{(+ 13)+ 23}_{(- 11) - 22}$ kpc respectively, where the errors appearing in parentheses are the components intrinsic to the method, w...

  13. A Clustering Method of Highly Dimensional Patent Data Using Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2012-01-01

    Patent data have diversely technological information of any technology field. So, many companies have managed the patent data to build their RD policy. Patent analysis is an approach to the patent management. Also, patent analysis is an important tool for technology forecasting. Patent clustering is one of the works for patent analysis. In this paper, we propose an efficient clustering method of patent documents. Generally, patent data are consisted of text document. The patent documents have...

  14. Optimal speech motor control and token-to-token variability: a Bayesian modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Patri, Jean-François; Diard, Julien; Perrier, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    The remarkable capacity of the speech motor system to adapt to various speech conditions is due to an excess of degrees of freedom, which enables producing similar acoustical properties with different sets of control strategies. To explain how the Central Nervous System selects one of the possible strategies, a common approach, in line with optimal motor control theories, is to model speech motor planning as the solution of an optimality problem based on cost functions. Despite the success of...

  15. Analysis of Bayesian classification-based approaches for Android malware detection

    OpenAIRE

    Suleiman Y. Yerima; Sezer, Sakir; MCWILLIAMS, Gavin

    2014-01-01

    Mobile malware has been growing in scale and complexity spurred by the unabated uptake of smartphones worldwide. Android is fast becoming the most popular mobile platform resulting in sharp increase in malware targeting the platform. Additionally, Android malware is evolving rapidly to evade detection by traditional signature-based scanning. Despite current detection measures in place, timely discovery of new malware is still a critical issue. This calls for novel approaches to mitigate the g...

  16. A Bayesian approach on molecules and behavior: reconsidering phylogenetic and evolutionary patterns of the Salamandridae with emphasis on Triturus newts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinfartz, Sebastian; Vicario, Saverio; Arntzen, J W; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2007-03-15

    The monophyly of European newts of the genus Triturus within the family Salamandridae has for decades rested on presumably homologous behavioral and morphological characters. Molecular data challenge this hypothesis, but the phylogenetic position of Triturus within the Salamandridae has not yet been convincingly resolved. We addressed this issue and the temporal divergence of Triturus within the Salamandridae with novel Bayesian approaches applied to DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S and cytb). We included 38 salamandrid species comprising all 13 recognized species of Triturus and 16 out of 17 salamandrid genera. A clade comprising all the "Newts" can be separated from the "True Salamanders" and Salamandrina clades. Within the "Newts" well-supported clades are: Tylototriton-Pleurodeles, the "New World Newts" (Notophthalmus-Taricha), and the "Modern Eurasian Newts" (Cynops, Pachytriton, Paramesotriton=together the "Modern Asian Newts", Calotriton, Euproctus, Neurergus and Triturus species). We found that Triturus is a non-monophyletic species assemblage, which includes four groups that are themselves monophyletic: (i) the "Large-Bodied Triturus" (six species), (ii) the "Small-Bodied Triturus" (five species), (iii) T. alpestris and (iv) T. vittatus. We estimated that the last common ancestor of Triturus existed around 64 million years ago (mya) while the root of the Salamandridae dates back to 95 mya. This was estimated using a fossil-based molecular dating approach and an explicit framework to select calibration points that least underestimated their corresponding nodes. Using the molecular phylogeny we mapped the evolution of life history and courtship traits in Triturus and found that several Triturus-specific courtship traits evolved independently. PMID:16969762

  17. A Bayesian approach to estimate the accuracy of "in-house" ELISA assay to measure rabies antibodies from compulsory vaccinated dogs and cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AHC Nogueira

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a vaccine-preventable disease that causes acute encephalitis in mammals, and it is still a significant public health problem in numerous countries. Infected dogs represent the main vectors involved in human rabies. Additionally, cattle rearing close to geographic areas where vampire bats are found presents an important connection with rural epidemiology. We applied two "in-house" enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA methodologies, considered alternatives to measure antibodies from vaccinated dogs and cattle, without employing the gold standard approach. The ELISA assays were performed on individual serum samples taken from domestic adult dogs and cows compulsory vaccinated against rabies (147 urban dogs and 64 cows; n = 211. The sandwich and liquid-phase competitive ELISA (scELISA and lpcELISA, considered "in-house" assays, were performed according to previous works. The only statistical methodology that allows this study is the Bayesian approach, developed to replace the conventional Hui-Walter paradigm. For conditional independent Bayesian model (one population, two tests and no gold standard the prior information for sensitivity and specificity of each test, mode, prevalence and transformed (á, â were submitted to Bayesian inference. The "in-house" lpcELISA revealed 16 - out of 261 serum samples - negative results, whereas in scELISA all results were positive. The Bayesian approach showed that prior information was specified for all parameters; posterior medians were Se scELISA 89%, Sp scELISA 88%, Sp lpcELISA 95% Se lpcELISA 98%, and prevalence (pi of 99%, without the use of gold standard analysis to measure specific anti-rabies antibodies.

  18. A Bayesian Packet Sharing Approach for Noisy IoT Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Vegni, Anna Maria; Loscrí, Valeria; Neri, Alessandro; Leo, Marco

    2016-01-01

    —Cloud computing and Internet of Things (IoT) represent two different technologies that are massively being adopted in our daily life, playing a fundamental role in the future Internet. One important challenge that need to be handled is the enormous amount of data generated by sensing devices, that make the control of sending useless data very important. In order to face with this challenge, there is a increasing interest about predictive approaches to avoid to send high spatio-temporal corre...

  19. A Bayesian approach to functional-based multilevel modeling of longitudinal data: applications to environmental epidemiology

    OpenAIRE

    Berhane, Kiros; Molitor, Nuoo-Ting

    2008-01-01

    Flexible multilevel models are proposed to allow for cluster-specific smooth estimation of growth curves in a mixed-effects modeling format that includes subject-specific random effects on the growth parameters. Attention is then focused on models that examine between-cluster comparisons of the effects of an ecologic covariate of interest (e.g. air pollution) on nonlinear functionals of growth curves (e.g. maximum rate of growth). A Gibbs sampling approach is used to get posterior mean estima...

  20. A predictive Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of bridging studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, A Lawrence; Jin, Tian; Zhang, Li Xin; Wang, William W B

    2012-09-01

    Pharmaceutical product development culminates in confirmatory trials whose evidence for the product's efficacy and safety supports regulatory approval for marketing. Regulatory agencies in countries whose patients were not included in the confirmatory trials often require confirmation of efficacy and safety in their patient populations, which may be accomplished by carrying out bridging studies to establish consistency for local patients of the effects demonstrated by the original trials. This article describes and illustrates an approach for designing and analyzing bridging studies that fully incorporates the information provided by the original trials. The approach determines probability contours or regions of joint predictive intervals for treatment effect and response variability, or endpoints of treatment effect confidence intervals, that are functions of the findings from the original trials, the sample sizes for the bridging studies, and possible deviations from complete consistency with the original trials. The bridging studies are judged consistent with the original trials if their findings fall within the probability contours or regions. Regulatory considerations determine the region definitions and appropriate probability levels. Producer and consumer risks provide a way to assess alternative region and probability choices. [Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the Publisher's online edition of the Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 2: R code for Calculations.]. PMID:22946940

  1. A Bayesian approach to functional-based multilevel modeling of longitudinal data: applications to environmental epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhane, Kiros; Molitor, Nuoo-Ting

    2008-01-01

    Flexible multilevel models are proposed to allow for cluster-specific smooth estimation of growth curves in a mixed-effects modeling format that includes subject-specific random effects on the growth parameters. Attention is then focused on models that examine between-cluster comparisons of the effects of an ecologic covariate of interest (e.g. air pollution) on nonlinear functionals of growth curves (e.g. maximum rate of growth). A Gibbs sampling approach is used to get posterior mean estimates of nonlinear functionals along with their uncertainty estimates. A second-stage ecologic random-effects model is used to examine the association between a covariate of interest (e.g. air pollution) and the nonlinear functionals. A unified estimation procedure is presented along with its computational and theoretical details. The models are motivated by, and illustrated with, lung function and air pollution data from the Southern California Children's Health Study. PMID:18349036

  2. A variational Bayesian approach for unsupervised super-resolution using mixture models of point and smooth sources applied to astrophysical map-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present, in this paper, a new unsupervised method for joint image super-resolution and separation between smooth and point sources. For this purpose, we propose a Bayesian approach with a Markovian model for the smooth part and Student’s t-distribution for point sources. All model and noise parameters are considered unknown and should be estimated jointly with images. However, joint estimators (joint MAP or posterior mean) are intractable and an approximation is needed. Therefore, a new gradient-like variational Bayesian method is applied to approximate the true posterior by a free-form separable distribution. A parametric form is obtained by approximating marginals but with form parameters that are mutually dependent. Their optimal values are achieved by iterating them till convergence. The method was tested by the model-generated data and a real dataset from the Herschel space observatory. (paper)

  3. Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial

  4. A Trans-dimensional Bayesian Approach to Pulsar Timing Noise Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Justin

    2016-01-01

    The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for Gravitational Wave (GW) detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well studied effects including radiometer noise, pulse-phase jitter noise, dispersion measure (DM) variations, and low frequency spin noise. However, as pulsar timing data continues to improve, non-stationary and non-powerlaw noise terms are beginning to manifest which are not well modeled by current noise analysis techniques. In this work we use a trans-dimensional approach to model these non-stationary and non-powerlaw effects through the use of a wavelet basis and an interpolation based adaptive spectral modeling. In both cases, the number of wavelets and the number of control points in the interpolated spectrum are free parameters that are constrained by the data and then marginalized over in the final inferences, thus fully incorporating our ignorance of the noise model. We show tha...

  5. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Loredo, T J

    2004-01-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data--measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object--show the approach can significantly improve observational eff...

  6. Bayesian comparison of cost-effectiveness of different clinical approaches to diagnose coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, R E; Eng, C; Horowitz, S F; Gorlin, R; Goldstein, S R

    1984-08-01

    threshold value of prevalence (80%) at which the rank order of policies changes. The model also allows substitution of different values for any variable as a way of accounting for the uncertainty inherent in the data. In conclusion, it is essential to consider the prevalence of disease when selecting the most cost-effective clinical approach to making a diagnosis. PMID:6429224

  7. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  8. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  9. The Robustness for Premium Calculations Using Bayesian Approaches%基于贝叶斯方法的保费计算的稳健性质

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴贤毅

    2015-01-01

    Three tightly related problems regarding the premium calculation principles are considered. Firstly, Bayesian premiums are defined by using of Bayesian approaches associated with loss principles. Then,two prob-lems regarding the robustness of premium calculation principles are investigated. One is the robustness of non-Bayesian premiums with respect to arbitrary contaminations. The other one is the robustness of Bayesian premiums with respect to the prior distributions by means of theε-contamination arguments. Finally,the reaction of a premi-um with respect to the contaminations and the range of premium using the Esscher principle when the contamina-tion distribution varies in a distribution class are discussed.%探讨了3类关于保费计算原理的相关问题。首先,结合贝叶斯方法和损失原理定义了贝叶斯保费;然后,研究了2类保费计算原理的稳健性质问题:带任意污染系数的非贝叶斯保费的稳健性质和基于ε-污染方法讨论的贝叶斯保费关于先验分布的稳健性质;最后,运用Esscher保费原理分析了当污染在某个分布类变化时保费对污染的响应以及保费的值域。

  10. A Measure of Systems Engineering Effectiveness in Government Acquisition of Complex Information Systems: A Bayesian Belief Network-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doskey, Steven Craig

    2014-01-01

    This research presents an innovative means of gauging Systems Engineering effectiveness through a Systems Engineering Relative Effectiveness Index (SE REI) model. The SE REI model uses a Bayesian Belief Network to map causal relationships in government acquisitions of Complex Information Systems (CIS), enabling practitioners to identify and…

  11. Bayesian Nonparametric Graph Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Banerjee, Sayantan; Akbani, Rehan; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2015-01-01

    We present clustering methods for multivariate data exploiting the underlying geometry of the graphical structure between variables. As opposed to standard approaches that assume known graph structures, we first estimate the edge structure of the unknown graph using Bayesian neighborhood selection approaches, wherein we account for the uncertainty of graphical structure learning through model-averaged estimates of the suitable parameters. Subsequently, we develop a nonparametric graph cluster...

  12. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  13. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO LOCATING THE RED GIANT BRANCH TIP MAGNITUDE. II. DISTANCES TO THE SATELLITES OF M31

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conn, A. R.; Parker, Q. A.; Zucker, D. B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, NSW 2109 (Australia); Ibata, R. A.; Martin, N. F. [Observatoire Astronomique, Universite de Strasbourg, CNRS, F-67000 Strasbourg (France); Lewis, G. F. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, A28, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); McConnachie, A. W. [NRC Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, British Columbia V9E 2E7 (Canada); Irwin, M. J.; Chapman, S. C. [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom); Tanvir, N. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Fardal, M. A. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Astronomy, LGRT 619-E, 710 N. Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01003-9305 (United States); Ferguson, A. M. N. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Valls-Gabaud, D. [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA, 61 Avenue de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France)

    2012-10-10

    In 'A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (Part I)', a new technique was introduced for obtaining distances using the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) standard candle. Here we describe a useful complement to the technique with the potential to further reduce the uncertainty in our distance measurements by incorporating a matched-filter weighting scheme into the model likelihood calculations. In this scheme, stars are weighted according to their probability of being true object members. We then re-test our modified algorithm using random-realization artificial data to verify the validity of the generated posterior probability distributions (PPDs) and proceed to apply the algorithm to the satellite system of M31, culminating in a three-dimensional view of the system. Further to the distributions thus obtained, we apply a satellite-specific prior on the satellite distances to weight the resulting distance posterior distributions, based on the halo density profile. Thus in a single publication, using a single method, a comprehensive coverage of the distances to the companion galaxies of M31 is presented, encompassing the dwarf spheroidals Andromedas I-III, V, IX-XXVII, and XXX along with NGC 147, NGC 185, M33, and M31 itself. Of these, the distances to Andromedas XXIV-XXVII and Andromeda XXX have never before been derived using the TRGB. Object distances are determined from high-resolution tip magnitude posterior distributions generated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and associated sampling of these distributions to take into account uncertainties in foreground extinction and the absolute magnitude of the TRGB as well as photometric errors. The distance PPDs obtained for each object both with and without the aforementioned prior are made available to the reader in tabular form. The large object coverage takes advantage of the unprecedented size and photometric depth of the Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey

  14. A Bayesian approach to real-time 3D tumor localization via monoscopic x-ray imaging during treatment delivery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: Monoscopic x-ray imaging with on-board kV devices is an attractive approach for real-time image guidance in modern radiation therapy such as VMAT or IMRT, but it falls short in providing reliable information along the direction of imaging x-ray. By effectively taking consideration of projection data at prior times and/or angles through a Bayesian formalism, the authors develop an algorithm for real-time and full 3D tumor localization with a single x-ray imager during treatment delivery. Methods: First, a prior probability density function is constructed using the 2D tumor locations on the projection images acquired during patient setup. Whenever an x-ray image is acquired during the treatment delivery, the corresponding 2D tumor location on the imager is used to update the likelihood function. The unresolved third dimension is obtained by maximizing the posterior probability distribution. The algorithm can also be used in a retrospective fashion when all the projection images during the treatment delivery are used for 3D localization purposes. The algorithm does not involve complex optimization of any model parameter and therefore can be used in a ''plug-and-play'' fashion. The authors validated the algorithm using (1) simulated 3D linear and elliptic motion and (2) 3D tumor motion trajectories of a lung and a pancreas patient reproduced by a physical phantom. Continuous kV images were acquired over a full gantry rotation with the Varian TrueBeam on-board imaging system. Three scenarios were considered: fluoroscopic setup, cone beam CT setup, and retrospective analysis. Results: For the simulation study, the RMS 3D localization error is 1.2 and 2.4 mm for the linear and elliptic motions, respectively. For the phantom experiments, the 3D localization error is < 1 mm on average and < 1.5 mm at 95th percentile in the lung and pancreas cases for all three scenarios. The difference in 3D localization error for different scenarios is small and is not

  15. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO LOCATING THE RED GIANT BRANCH TIP MAGNITUDE. II. DISTANCES TO THE SATELLITES OF M31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 'A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (Part I)', a new technique was introduced for obtaining distances using the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) standard candle. Here we describe a useful complement to the technique with the potential to further reduce the uncertainty in our distance measurements by incorporating a matched-filter weighting scheme into the model likelihood calculations. In this scheme, stars are weighted according to their probability of being true object members. We then re-test our modified algorithm using random-realization artificial data to verify the validity of the generated posterior probability distributions (PPDs) and proceed to apply the algorithm to the satellite system of M31, culminating in a three-dimensional view of the system. Further to the distributions thus obtained, we apply a satellite-specific prior on the satellite distances to weight the resulting distance posterior distributions, based on the halo density profile. Thus in a single publication, using a single method, a comprehensive coverage of the distances to the companion galaxies of M31 is presented, encompassing the dwarf spheroidals Andromedas I-III, V, IX-XXVII, and XXX along with NGC 147, NGC 185, M33, and M31 itself. Of these, the distances to Andromedas XXIV-XXVII and Andromeda XXX have never before been derived using the TRGB. Object distances are determined from high-resolution tip magnitude posterior distributions generated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and associated sampling of these distributions to take into account uncertainties in foreground extinction and the absolute magnitude of the TRGB as well as photometric errors. The distance PPDs obtained for each object both with and without the aforementioned prior are made available to the reader in tabular form. The large object coverage takes advantage of the unprecedented size and photometric depth of the Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey. Finally, a

  16. Biological dosimetry - a Bayesian approach in the presentation of the uncertainty of the estimated dose in cases of exposure to low dose radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biodosimetry laboratory experience has shown that there are limitations in the existing statistical methodology. Statistical difficulties generally occur due to the low number of aberrations leading to large uncertainties for dose estimation. Some problems derived from limitations of the classical statistical methodology, which requires that chromosome aberration yields be considered as something fixed and consequently provides a deterministic dose estimation and associated confidence limits. On the other hand, recipients of biological dosimetry reports, including medical doctors, regulators and the patients themselves may have a limited comprehension of statistics and of informed reports. Thus, the objective of the present paper is to use a Bayesian approach to present the uncertainty on the estimated dose to which a person could be exposed, in the case of low dose (occupational doses) radiation exposure. Such methodology will allow the biodosimetrists to adopt a probabilistic approach for the cytogenetic data analysis. At present, classical statistics allows to produce a confidence interval to report such dose, with a lower limit that could not detach from zero. In this situation it becomes difficult to make decisions as they could impact on the labor activities of the worker if an exposure exceeding the occupational dose limits is inferred. The proposed Bayesian approach is applied to occupational exposure scenario to contribute to take the appropriate radiation protection measures. (authors)

  17. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    Object oriented Bayesian networks have proven themselves useful in recent years. The idea of applying an object oriented approach to Bayesian networks has extended their scope to larger domains that can be divided into autonomous but interrelated entities. Object oriented Bayesian networks have...... been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... by constructing a junction tree from this network. In this paper we propose a method for translating directly from object oriented Bayesian networks to junction trees, avoiding the intermediate translation. We pursue two main purposes: firstly, to maintain the original structure organized in an instance tree...

  18. Perceptual stimulus-A Bayesian-based integration of multi-visual-cue approach and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUE JianRu; ZHENG NanNing; ZHONG XiaoPin; PING LinJiang

    2008-01-01

    With the view that visual cue could be taken as a kind of stimulus, the study of the mechanism in the visual perception process by using visual cues in their probabilistic representation eventually leads to a class of statistical integration of multiple visual cues (IMVC) methods which have been applied widely in perceptual grouping, video analysis, and other basic problems in computer vision. In this paper, a survey on the basic ideas and recent advances of IMVC methods is presented, and much focus is on the models and algorithms of IMVC for video analysis within the framework of Bayesian estimation. Furthermore, two typical problems in video analysis, robust visual tracking and "switching problem" in multi-target tracking (MTT) are taken as test beds to verify a series of Bayesian-based IMVC methods proposed by the authors. Furthermore, the relations between the statistical IMVC and the visual per-ception process, as well as potential future research work for IMVC, are discussed.

  19. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid; Tuominen, Pirkko; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference and......Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation of...... evidence synthesis of two sample data sets. Thus, parameter uncertainty was represented by a joint posterior distribution, which we then used to predict the risk and to evaluate the criteria for acceptance of production batches. We also applied the Bayesian model to compare alternative criteria, accounting...

  20. Bayesian Sample Size Determination of Vibration Signals in Machine Learning Approach to Fault Diagnosis of Roller Bearings

    OpenAIRE

    Sahu, Siddhant; V. SUGUMARAN

    2014-01-01

    Sample size determination for a data set is an important statistical process for analyzing the data to an optimum level of accuracy and using minimum computational work. The applications of this process are credible in every domain which deals with large data sets and high computational work. This study uses Bayesian analysis for determination of minimum sample size of vibration signals to be considered for fault diagnosis of a bearing using pre-defined parameters such as the inverse standard...

  1. A novel Bayesian approach to quantify clinical variables and to determine their spectroscopic counterparts in 1H NMR metabonomic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaski Kimmo

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge in metabonomics is to uncover quantitative associations between multidimensional spectroscopic data and biochemical measures used for disease risk assessment and diagnostics. Here we focus on clinically relevant estimation of lipoprotein lipids by 1H NMR spectroscopy of serum. Results A Bayesian methodology, with a biochemical motivation, is presented for a real 1H NMR metabonomics data set of 75 serum samples. Lipoprotein lipid concentrations were independently obtained for these samples via ultracentrifugation and specific biochemical assays. The Bayesian models were constructed by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC and they showed remarkably good quantitative performance, the predictive R-values being 0.985 for the very low density lipoprotein triglycerides (VLDL-TG, 0.787 for the intermediate, 0.943 for the low, and 0.933 for the high density lipoprotein cholesterol (IDL-C, LDL-C and HDL-C, respectively. The modelling produced a kernel-based reformulation of the data, the parameters of which coincided with the well-known biochemical characteristics of the 1H NMR spectra; particularly for VLDL-TG and HDL-C the Bayesian methodology was able to clearly identify the most characteristic resonances within the heavily overlapping information in the spectra. For IDL-C and LDL-C the resulting model kernels were more complex than those for VLDL-TG and HDL-C, probably reflecting the severe overlap of the IDL and LDL resonances in the 1H NMR spectra. Conclusion The systematic use of Bayesian MCMC analysis is computationally demanding. Nevertheless, the combination of high-quality quantification and the biochemical rationale of the resulting models is expected to be useful in the field of metabonomics.

  2. Bayesian Approach to Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model, with an Application to Tobacco Use

    OpenAIRE

    Shiferaw Gurmu; Dagne, Getachew A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of bivariate ordered probit regression model with excess of zeros. Specifically, in the context of joint modeling of two ordered outcomes, we develop zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model and carry out estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Using household tobacco survey data with substantial proportion of zeros, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of individual problem of smoking and chewing tobacco. In our illustration, we ...

  3. An Approach to Structure Determination and Estimation of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas and its Application to Bayesian Classification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Górecki, J.; Hofert, M.; Holeňa, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 46, č. 1 (2016), s. 21-59. ISSN 0925-9902 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Grant ostatní: Slezská univerzita v Opavě(CZ) SGS/21/2014 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Copula * Hierarchical archimedean copula * Copula estimation * Structure determination * Kendall’s tau * Bayesian classification Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.886, year: 2014

  4. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas J.

    2004-04-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.

  5. Bayesian Monitoring.

    OpenAIRE

    Kirstein, Roland

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a modification of the inspection game: The ?Bayesian Monitoring? model rests on the assumption that judges are interested in enforcing compliant behavior and making correct decisions. They may base their judgements on an informative but imperfect signal which can be generated costlessly. In the original inspection game, monitoring is costly and generates a perfectly informative signal. While the inspection game has only one mixed strategy equilibrium, three Perfect Bayesia...

  6. Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Qijun; Piegorsch, Walter W.; Barnes, Katherine Y.

    2014-01-01

    An important objective in environmental risk assessment is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs) that induce a pre-specified Benchmark Response (BMR) in a target population. Established inferential approaches for BMD analysis typically involve one-sided, frequentist confidence limits, leading in practice to what are called Benchmark Dose Lower Limits (BMDLs). Appeal to Bayesian modeling and credible limits for building BMDLs is far less developed, however. Indee...

  7. Heteroscedastic Treed Bayesian Optimisation

    OpenAIRE

    Assael, John-Alexander M.; Wang, Ziyu; Shahriari, Bobak; De Freitas, Nando

    2014-01-01

    Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. At the core of this approach is a Gaussian process prior that captures our belief about the distribution over functions. However, in many cases a single Gaussian process is not flexible enough to capture non-stat...

  8. Efficient Bayesian Phase Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, Nathan; Granade, Chris

    2016-07-01

    We introduce a new method called rejection filtering that we use to perform adaptive Bayesian phase estimation. Our approach has several advantages: it is classically efficient, easy to implement, achieves Heisenberg limited scaling, resists depolarizing noise, tracks time-dependent eigenstates, recovers from failures, and can be run on a field programmable gate array. It also outperforms existing iterative phase estimation algorithms such as Kitaev's method.

  9. A Bayesian Network approach to the evaluation of building design and its consequences for employee performance and operational costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kasper Lynge; Toftum, Jørn; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    building design. In this paper, focus will be on the effects of temperature on mental performance and not on other indoor climate factors. A total economic comparison of six different building designs, four located in northern Europe and two in Los Angeles, USA, was performed. The results indicate...... that investments in improved indoor thermal conditions can be justified economically in most cases. The Bayesian Network provides a reliable platform using probabilities for modelling the complexity while estimating the effect of indoor climate factors on human beings, due to the different ways in which humans...

  10. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  11. Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling approach for urban land-use and population density change: a BNAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocabas, Verda; Dragicevic, Suzana

    2013-10-01

    Land-use change models grounded in complexity theory such as agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to examine evolving urban systems. The objective of this study is to develop a spatial model that simulates land-use change under the influence of human land-use choice behavior. This is achieved by integrating the key physical and social drivers of land-use change using Bayesian networks (BNs) coupled with agent-based modeling. The BNAS model, integrated Bayesian network-based agent system, presented in this study uses geographic information systems, ABMs, BNs, and influence diagram principles to model population change on an irregular spatial structure. The model is parameterized with historical data and then used to simulate 20 years of future population and land-use change for the City of Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation results identify feasible new urban areas for development around the main transportation corridors. The obtained new development areas and the projected population trajectories with the“what-if” scenario capabilities can provide insights into urban planners for better and more informed land-use policy or decision-making processes.

  12. An ecosystem service approach to support integrated pond management: a case study using Bayesian belief networks--highlighting opportunities and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landuyt, Dries; Lemmens, Pieter; D'hondt, Rob; Broekx, Steven; Liekens, Inge; De Bie, Tom; Declerck, Steven A J; De Meester, Luc; Goethals, Peter L M

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater ponds deliver a broad range of ecosystem services (ESS). Taking into account this broad range of services to attain cost-effective ESS delivery is an important challenge facing integrated pond management. To assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ESS approach to support decisions in integrated pond management, we applied it on a small case study in Flanders, Belgium. A Bayesian belief network model was developed to assess ESS delivery under three alternative pond management scenarios: intensive fish farming (IFF), extensive fish farming (EFF) and nature conservation management (NCM). A probabilistic cost-benefit analysis was performed that includes both costs associated with pond management practices and benefits associated with ESS delivery. Whether or not a particular ESS is included in the analysis affects the identification of the most preferable management scenario by the model. Assessing the delivery of a more complete set of ecosystem services tends to shift the results away from intensive management to more biodiversity-oriented management scenarios. The proposed methodology illustrates the potential of Bayesian belief networks. BBNs facilitate knowledge integration and their modular nature encourages future model expansion to more encompassing sets of services. Yet, we also illustrate the key weaknesses of such exercises, being that the choice whether or not to include a particular ecosystem service may determine the suggested optimal management practice. PMID:25005053

  13. A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guo-Jing; Vounatsou, Penelope; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2005-02-01

    Spatio-temporal variations of Schistosoma japonicum infection risk in Jiangsu province, China, were examined and the relationships between key climatic factors and infection prevalence at the county level were determined. The parasitological data were collected annually by means of cross-sectional surveys carried out in 47 counties from 1990 to 1998. Climatic factors, namely land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained from remote sensing satellite sensors. Bayesian spatio-temporal models were employed to analyze the data. The best fitting model showed that spatial autocorrelation in Jiangsu province decreased dramatically from 1990 to 1992 and increased gradually thereafter. A likely explanation of this finding arises from the large-scale administration of praziquantel for morbidity control of schistosomiasis. Our analysis suggested a negative association between NDVI and risk of S. japonicum infection. On the other hand, an increase in LST contributed to a significant increase in S. japonicum infection prevalence. We conclude that combining geographic information system, remote sensing and Bayesian-based statistical approaches facilitate integrated risk modeling of S. japonicum, which in turn is of relevance for allocation of scarce resources for control of schistosomiasis japonica in Jiangsu province and elsewhere in China, where the disease remains of public health and economic significance. PMID:15710436

  14. Computationally efficient Bayesian tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aughenbaugh, Jason; La Cour, Brian

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we describe the progress we have achieved in developing a computationally efficient, grid-based Bayesian fusion tracking system. In our approach, the probability surface is represented by a collection of multidimensional polynomials, each computed adaptively on a grid of cells representing state space. Time evolution is performed using a hybrid particle/grid approach and knowledge of the grid structure, while sensor updates use a measurement-based sampling method with a Delaunay triangulation. We present an application of this system to the problem of tracking a submarine target using a field of active and passive sonar buoys.

  15. Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

  16. Subjective Bayesian Analysis: Principles and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Goldstein, Michael

    2006-01-01

    We address the position of subjectivism within Bayesian statistics. We argue, first, that the subjectivist Bayes approach is the only feasible method for tackling many important practical problems. Second, we describe the essential role of the subjectivist approach in scientific analysis. Third, we consider possible modifications to the Bayesian approach from a subjectivist viewpoint. Finally, we address the issue of pragmatism in implementing the subjectivist approach.

  17. Assessing the Differences in Public Health Impact of Salmonella Subtypes Using a Bayesian Microbial Subtyping Approach for Source Attribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pires, Sara Monteiro; Hald, Tine

    2010-01-01

    disease. These differences presumably represent multiple factors, such as differences in survivability through the food chain and/or pathogenicity. The relative importance of the source-dependent factors varied considerably over the years, reflecting, among others, variability in the surveillance programs......Salmonella is a major cause of human gastroenteritis worldwide. To prioritize interventions and assess the effectiveness of efforts to reduce illness, it is important to attribute salmonellosis to the responsible sources. Studies have suggested that some Salmonella subtypes have a higher health...... impact than others. Likewise, some food sources appear to have a higher impact than others. Knowledge of variability in the impact of subtypes and sources may provide valuable added information for research, risk management, and public health strategies. We developed a Bayesian model that attributes...

  18. Fast Bayesian approach for modal identification using free vibration data, Part II-Posterior uncertainty and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yan-Chun; Zhang, Feng-Liang; Lam, Heung-Fai; Au, Siu-Kui

    2016-03-01

    A Bayesian statistical framework has been developed for modal identification using free vibration data in the companion paper (Zhang et al., Mech. Syst. Sig. Process. (2015)). Efficient strategies have been developed for evaluating the most probable value (MPV) of the modal parameters in both well-separated mode and general multiple mode cases. This paper investigates the posterior uncertainty of the modal parameters in terms of their posterior covariance matrix, which is mathematically equal to the inverse of the Hessian of the negative log-likelihood function (NLLF) evaluated at the MPVs. Computational issues associated with the determination of the posterior covariance matrix are discussed. Analytical expressions are derived for the Hessian so that it can be evaluated accurately and efficiently without resorting to finite difference method. The proposed methods are verified with synthetic data and then applied to field vibration test data.

  19. Linking urbanization to the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for stream ecosystems in the Northeastern United States using a Bayesian network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashuba, Roxolana; McMahon, Gerard; Cuffney, Thomas F.; Qian, Song; Reckhow, Kenneth; Gerritsen, Jeroen; Davies, Susan

    2012-01-01

    Urban development alters important physical, chemical, and biological processes that define urban stream ecosystems. An approach was developed for quantifying the effects of these processes on aquatic biota, and then linking those effects to endpoints that can be used for environmental management. These complex, interacting systems are challenging to model from a scientific standpoint. A desirable model clearly shows the system, simulates the interactions, and ultimately predicts results of management actions. Traditional regression techniques that calculate empirical relations between pairs of environmental factors do not capture the interconnected web of multiple stressors, but urban development effects are not yet understood at the detailed scales required to make mechanistic modeling approaches feasible. Therefore, in contrast to a fully deterministic or fully statistical modeling approach, a Bayesian network model provides a hybrid approach that can be used to represent known general associations between variables while acknowledging uncertainty in predicted outcomes. It does so by quantifying an expert-elicited network of probabilistic relations between variables. Advantages of this modeling approach include (1) flexibility in accommodating many model specifications and information types; (2) efficiency in storing and manipulating complex information, and to parameterize; and (3) transparency in describing the relations using nodes and arrows and in describing uncertainties with discrete probability distributions for each variable.

  20. Bayesian Attractor Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegerinck, Wim; Schoenaker, Christiaan; Duane, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Recently, methods for model fusion by dynamically combining model components in an interactive ensemble have been proposed. In these proposals, fusion parameters have to be learned from data. One can view these systems as parametrized dynamical systems. We address the question of learnability of dynamical systems with respect to both short term (vector field) and long term (attractor) behavior. In particular we are interested in learning in the imperfect model class setting, in which the ground truth has a higher complexity than the models, e.g. due to unresolved scales. We take a Bayesian point of view and we define a joint log-likelihood that consists of two terms, one is the vector field error and the other is the attractor error, for which we take the L1 distance between the stationary distributions of the model and the assumed ground truth. In the context of linear models (like so-called weighted supermodels), and assuming a Gaussian error model in the vector fields, vector field learning leads to a tractable Gaussian solution. This solution can then be used as a prior for the next step, Bayesian attractor learning, in which the attractor error is used as a log-likelihood term. Bayesian attractor learning is implemented by elliptical slice sampling, a sampling method for systems with a Gaussian prior and a non Gaussian likelihood. Simulations with a partially observed driven Lorenz 63 system illustrate the approach.

  1. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  2. A Bayesian approach to the inference of parametric configuration of the signal-to-noise ratio in an adaptive refinement of the measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Marquez, Maria Jose

    2012-01-01

    Calibration is nowadays one of the most important processes involved in the extraction of valuable data from measurements. The current availability of an optimum data cube measured from a heterogeneous set of instruments and surveys relies on a systematic and robust approach in the corresponding measurement analysis. In that sense, the inference of configurable instrument parameters can considerably increase the quality of the data obtained. This paper proposes a solution based on Bayesian inference for the estimation of the configurable parameters relevant to the signal to noise ratio. The information obtained by the resolution of this problem can be handled in a very useful way if it is considered as part of an adaptive loop for the overall measurement strategy, in such a way that the outcome of this parametric inference leads to an increase in the knowledge of a model comparison problem in the context of the measurement interpretation. The context of this problem is the multi-wavelength measurements coming...

  3. Using a Bayesian approach to improve and calibrate a dynamic model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons degradation in an industrial contaminated soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brimo, Khaled; Garnier, Patricia; Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Cébron, Aurélie; Ouvrard, Stéphanie

    2016-08-01

    A novel kinetics model that describes the dynamics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in contaminated soils is presented. The model includes two typical biodegradation pathways: the co-metabolic pathway using pseudo first order kinetics and the specific biodegradation pathway modeled using Monod kinetics. The sorption of PAHs to the solid soil occurs through bi-phasic fist order kinetics, and two types of non-extractible bounded residues are considered: the biogenic and the physically sequestrated into soil matrix. The PAH model was developed in Matlab, parameterized and tested successfully on batch experimental data using a Bayesian approach (DREAM). Preliminary results led to significant model simplifications. They also highlighted that the specific biodegradation pathway was the most efficient at explaining experimental data, as would be expected for an old industrial contaminated soil. Global analysis of sensitivity showed that the amount of PAHs ultimately degraded was mostly governed by physicochemical interactions rather than by biological activity. PMID:27176762

  4. Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian P.; Wraith, Darren

    2009-01-01

    In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

  5. Bayesian Just-So Stories in Psychology and Neuroscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Jeffrey S.; Davis, Colin J.

    2012-01-01

    According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…

  6. Assessment of the value of groundwater age time-series for characterizing complex steady-state flow systems using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The usefulness of multi-year tracer data in evaluating age distribution is examined. • Bayesian MCMC approach is used to infer the parameter of age distribution forms. • Transient tracer data was found to be able to reduce the uncertainty of age distributions. • Transient tracer data can evaluate the appropriateness of presumed distributions. - Abstract: In this work, the effectiveness of transient environmental tracer data in reducing the uncertainty associated with the inference of groundwater residence time distribution was evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to infer the parameters of presumed residence time distribution forms—exponential and gamma—using concentrations of five tracers, including CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, and 85Kr. The transient tracer concentrations were synthetically generated using the residence time distributions obtained from a model of the Plœmeur aquifer in southern Brittany, France. Several measures of model adequacy, including Deviance Information Criteria, Bayes factors, and measures based on the deviation of inferred and true cumulative residence time distribution, were used to evaluate the value of groundwater age time-series. Neither of the presumed forms of residence time distributions, exponential and gamma, perfectly represent the simulated true distribution; therefore, the method was not able to show a definitive preference to one over the other in all cases. The results show that using multiple years of tracer data not only reduces the bias of inference (as defined by the difference between the expected value of a metric of inferred residence time distribution and the true value of the same metric), but also helps quantify the uncertainty more realistically. It was found that when one year of data is used, both models could almost perfectly reproduce the observed tracer data, even when the inferred residence time distributions differed substantially from the true one

  7. Bayesian Variable Selection in Spatial Autoregressive Models

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus Crespo Cuaresma; Philipp Piribauer

    2015-01-01

    This paper compares the performance of Bayesian variable selection approaches for spatial autoregressive models. We present two alternative approaches which can be implemented using Gibbs sampling methods in a straightforward way and allow us to deal with the problem of model uncertainty in spatial autoregressive models in a flexible and computationally efficient way. In a simulation study we show that the variable selection approaches tend to outperform existing Bayesian model averaging tech...

  8. Incorporating Pore-Scale Data in Field-Scale Uncertainty Quantification: A Multi-Scale Bayesian Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Icardi, M.

    2014-12-01

    Pore-scale modeling is recently become an important tool for a deeper understanding of complex transport phenomena in porous media. However its direct usage for field-scale processes is still hindered by limited predictive capabilities. This is due to the large uncertainties in the micro-scale parameters, in the pore geometries, in the limited number of available samples, and in the numerical errors. These issues are often overlooked because it is usually thought that the computational cost of pore-scale simulation prohibits an extensive uncertainty quantification study with large number of samples. In this work we propose an computational tool to estimate statistics of pore-scale quantities. The algorithm is based on (i) an efficient automatic CFD solver for pore-scale simulations, (ii) a multi-scale Bayesian theoretical framework, and (iii) a generalized multilevel Monte Carlo to speed up the statistical computations. Exploiting the variance reduction of the multi-level and multi-scale representation, we demonstrate the feasibility of the forward and inverse uncertainty quantification problems. The former consists in quantifying the effect of micro-scale heterogeneities and parametric uncertainties on macro-scale upscaled quantities. Given some prior information on the pore-scale structures, the latter can be applied to (i) assess the validity and estimate uncertainties of macro-scale models for a wide range of micro-scale properties, (ii) match macro-scale results with the underlying pore-scale properties.

  9. Estimation of canine Leishmania infection prevalence in six cities of the Algerian littoral zone using a Bayesian approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amel Adel

    Full Text Available A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT and a direct agglutination test (DAT. Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity. The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period and 38% (Bejaia, second period. Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season. A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard.

  10. Estimation of canine Leishmania infection prevalence in six cities of the Algerian littoral zone using a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard. PMID:25793942

  11. Physiologically based modeling of the pharmacokinetics of acetaminophen and its major metabolites in humans using a Bayesian population approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurlinden, Todd J; Reisfeld, Brad

    2016-06-01

    The principal aim of this study was to develop, validate, and demonstrate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict and characterize the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of acetaminophen (APAP) in humans. A PBPK model was created that included pharmacologically and toxicologically relevant tissue compartments and incorporated mechanistic descriptions of the absorption and metabolism of APAP, such as gastric emptying time, cofactor kinetics, and transporter-mediated movement of conjugated metabolites in the liver. Through the use of a hierarchical Bayesian framework, unknown model parameters were estimated using a large training set of data from human pharmacokinetic studies, resulting in parameter distributions that account for data uncertainty and inter-study variability. Predictions from the model showed good agreement to a diverse test set of data across several measures, including plasma concentrations over time, renal clearance, APAP absorption, and pharmacokinetic and exposure metrics. The utility of the model was then demonstrated through predictions of cofactor depletion, dose response of several pharmacokinetic endpoints, and the relationship between APAP biomarker levels in the plasma and those in the liver. The model addressed several limitations in previous PBPK models for APAP, and it is anticipated that it will be useful in predicting the pharmacokinetics of APAP in a number of contexts, such as extrapolating across doses, estimating internal concentrations, quantifying population variability, assessing possible impacts of drug coadministration, and, when coupled with a suitable pharmacodynamic model, predicting toxicity. PMID:25636597

  12. Multi-tissue omics analyses reveal molecular regulatory networks for puberty in composite beef cattle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Cánovas

    Full Text Available Puberty is a complex physiological event by which animals mature into an adult capable of sexual reproduction. In order to enhance our understanding of the genes and regulatory pathways and networks involved in puberty, we characterized the transcriptome of five reproductive tissues (i.e. hypothalamus, pituitary gland, ovary, uterus, and endometrium as well as tissues known to be relevant to growth and metabolism needed to achieve puberty (i.e., longissimus dorsi muscle, adipose, and liver. These tissues were collected from pre- and post-pubertal Brangus heifers (3/8 Brahman; Bos indicus x 5/8 Angus; Bos taurus derived from a population of cattle used to identify quantitative trait loci associated with fertility traits (i.e., age of first observed corpus luteum (ACL, first service conception (FSC, and heifer pregnancy (HPG. In order to exploit the power of complementary omics analyses, pre- and post-puberty co-expression gene networks were constructed by combining the results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS, RNA-Seq, and bovine transcription factors. Eight tissues among pre-pubertal and post-pubertal Brangus heifers revealed 1,515 differentially expressed and 943 tissue-specific genes within the 17,832 genes confirmed by RNA-Seq analysis. The hypothalamus experienced the most notable up-regulation of genes via puberty (i.e., 204 out of 275 genes. Combining the results of GWAS and RNA-Seq, we identified 25 loci containing a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP associated with ACL, FSC, and (or HPG. Seventeen of these SNP were within a gene and 13 of the genes were expressed in uterus or endometrium. Multi-tissue omics analyses revealed 2,450 co-expressed genes relative to puberty. The pre-pubertal network had 372,861 connections whereas the post-pubertal network had 328,357 connections. A sub-network from this process revealed key transcriptional regulators (i.e., PITX2, FOXA1, DACH2, PROP1, SIX6, etc.. Results from these multi-tissue

  13. Multi-tissue omics analyses reveal molecular regulatory networks for puberty in composite beef cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cánovas, Angela; Reverter, Antonio; DeAtley, Kasey L; Ashley, Ryan L; Colgrave, Michelle L; Fortes, Marina R S; Islas-Trejo, Alma; Lehnert, Sigrid; Porto-Neto, Laercio; Rincón, Gonzalo; Silver, Gail A; Snelling, Warren M; Medrano, Juan F; Thomas, Milton G

    2014-01-01

    Puberty is a complex physiological event by which animals mature into an adult capable of sexual reproduction. In order to enhance our understanding of the genes and regulatory pathways and networks involved in puberty, we characterized the transcriptome of five reproductive tissues (i.e. hypothalamus, pituitary gland, ovary, uterus, and endometrium) as well as tissues known to be relevant to growth and metabolism needed to achieve puberty (i.e., longissimus dorsi muscle, adipose, and liver). These tissues were collected from pre- and post-pubertal Brangus heifers (3/8 Brahman; Bos indicus x 5/8 Angus; Bos taurus) derived from a population of cattle used to identify quantitative trait loci associated with fertility traits (i.e., age of first observed corpus luteum (ACL), first service conception (FSC), and heifer pregnancy (HPG)). In order to exploit the power of complementary omics analyses, pre- and post-puberty co-expression gene networks were constructed by combining the results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), RNA-Seq, and bovine transcription factors. Eight tissues among pre-pubertal and post-pubertal Brangus heifers revealed 1,515 differentially expressed and 943 tissue-specific genes within the 17,832 genes confirmed by RNA-Seq analysis. The hypothalamus experienced the most notable up-regulation of genes via puberty (i.e., 204 out of 275 genes). Combining the results of GWAS and RNA-Seq, we identified 25 loci containing a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associated with ACL, FSC, and (or) HPG. Seventeen of these SNP were within a gene and 13 of the genes were expressed in uterus or endometrium. Multi-tissue omics analyses revealed 2,450 co-expressed genes relative to puberty. The pre-pubertal network had 372,861 connections whereas the post-pubertal network had 328,357 connections. A sub-network from this process revealed key transcriptional regulators (i.e., PITX2, FOXA1, DACH2, PROP1, SIX6, etc.). Results from these multi-tissue omics

  14. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  15. Modeling the Accuracy of Three Detection Methods of Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 During the Dormant Period Using a Bayesian Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmos, Antonio; Bertolini, Edson; Ruiz-García, Ana B; Martínez, Carmen; Peiró, Rosa; Vidal, Eduardo

    2016-05-01

    Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) has a worldwide distribution and is the most economically important virus that causes grapevine leafroll disease. Reliable, sensitive, and specific methods are required for the detection of the pathogen in order to assure the production of healthy plant material and control of the disease. Although different serological and nucleic acid-based methods have been developed for the detection of GLRaV-3, diagnostic parameters have not been established, and there is no gold standard method. Therefore, the main aim of this work was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of three commonly used methods, including one serological test (double-antibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [DAS-ELISA]) and two nucleic acid-based techniques (spot and conventional real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]). Latent class models using a Bayesian approach have been applied to determine diagnostic test parameters and to facilitate decision-making regarding diagnostic test selection. Statistical analysis has been based on the results of a total of 281 samples, which were collected during the dormant period from three different populations. The best-fit model out of the 49 implemented models revealed that DAS-ELISA was the most specific method (value = 0.99) and provided the highest degree of confidence in positive results. Conversely, conventional real-time RT-PCR was the most sensitive method (value = 0.98) and produced the highest degree of confidence in negative results. Furthermore, the estimation of likelihood ratios showed that in populations with low GLRaV-3 prevalence the most appropriate method could be DAS-ELISA, while conventional real-time RT-PCR could be the most appropriate method in medium or high prevalence populations. Combining both techniques significantly increases detection accuracy. The flexibility and power of Bayesian latent class models open new

  16. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. An approximate inversion method of geoelectrical sounding data using linear and bayesian statistical approaches. Examples of Tritrivakely volcanic lake and Mahitsy area (central part of Madagascar)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is concerned with resistivity sounding measurements performed from single site (vertical sounding) or from several sites (profiles) within a bounded area. The objective is to present an accurate information about the study area and to estimate the likelihood of the produced quantitative models. The achievement of this objective obviously requires quite relevant data and processing methods. It also requires interpretation methods which should take into account the probable effect of an heterogeneous structure. In front of such difficulties, the interpretation of resistivity sounding data inevitably involves the use of inversion methods. We suggest starting the interpretation in simple situation (1-D approximation), and using the rough but correct model obtained as an a-priori model for any more refined interpretation. Related to this point of view, special attention should be paid for the inverse problem applied to the resistivity sounding data. This inverse problem is nonlinear, while linearity inherent in the functional response used to describe the physical experiment. Two different approaches are used to build an approximate but higher dimensional inversion of geoelectrical data: the linear approach and the bayesian statistical approach. Some illustrations of their application in resistivity sounding data acquired at Tritrivakely volcanic lake (single site) and at Mahitsy area (several sites) will be given. (author). 28 refs, 7 figs

  18. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  19. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in...

  20. Bayesian Agglomerative Clustering with Coalescents

    OpenAIRE

    Teh, Yee Whye; Daumé III, Hal; Roy, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over others, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.

  1. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  2. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes and...... largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...

  3. A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Prieto Víctor

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bovine tuberculosis (bTB is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. Results We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1 incident cattle farms, (2 number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3 prevalence in wild boar, (4 number of sampled cattle, (5 persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6 prevalence in red deer, (7 proportion of beef farms, and (8 farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. Conclusions The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive b

  4. Understanding uncertainties in non-linear population trajectories: a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical approach to large-scale surveys of coral cover.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Vercelloni

    Full Text Available Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.

  5. Bayesian analysis toolkit - BAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statistical treatment of data is an essential part of any data analysis and interpretation. Different statistical methods and approaches can be used, however the implementation of these approaches is complicated and at times inefficient. The Bayesian analysis toolkit (BAT) is a software package developed in C++ framework that facilitates the statistical analysis of the data using Bayesian theorem. The tool evaluates the posterior probability distributions for models and their parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo which in turn provide straightforward parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation. Additional algorithms, such as simulated annealing, allow extraction of the global mode of the posterior. BAT sets a well-tested environment for flexible model definition and also includes a set of predefined models for standard statistical problems. The package is interfaced to other software packages commonly used in high energy physics, such as ROOT, Minuit, RooStats and CUBA. We present a general overview of BAT and its algorithms. A few physics examples are shown to introduce the spectrum of its applications. In addition, new developments and features are summarized.

  6. A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus)using barrier island features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Frasera, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2014-01-01

    Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human

  7. Bayesian Games with Intentions

    OpenAIRE

    Bjorndahl, Adam; Halpern, Joseph Y.; Pass, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    We show that standard Bayesian games cannot represent the full spectrum of belief-dependent preferences. However, by introducing a fundamental distinction between intended and actual strategies, we remove this limitation. We define Bayesian games with intentions, generalizing both Bayesian games and psychological games, and prove that Nash equilibria in psychological games correspond to a special class of equilibria as defined in our setting.

  8. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts

    OpenAIRE

    Canale, Antonio; David B Dunson

    2011-01-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviatio...

  9. Dramatic expansion of the black widow toxin arsenal uncovered by multi-tissue transcriptomics and venom proteomics

    OpenAIRE

    Haney, Robert A.; Ayoub, Nadia A; Clarke, Thomas H; Cheryl Y Hayashi; Garb, Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Animal venoms attract enormous interest given their potential for pharmacological discovery and understanding the evolution of natural chemistries. Next-generation transcriptomics and proteomics provide unparalleled, but underexploited, capabilities for venom characterization. We combined multi-tissue RNA-Seq with mass spectrometry and bioinformatic analyses to determine venom gland specific transcripts and venom proteins from the Western black widow spider (Latrodectus hesperus) a...

  10. Relative accuracy of spatial predictive models for lynx Lynx canadensis derived using logistic regression-AIC, multiple criteria evaluation and Bayesian approaches

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hejun KANG; Shelley M.ALEXANDER

    2009-01-01

    We compared probability surfaces derived using one set of environmental variables in three Geographic Information Systems (GIS) -based approaches: logistic regression and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC),Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE),and Bayesian Analysis (specifically Dempster-Shafer theory). We used lynx Lynx canadensis as our focal species,and developed our environment relationship model using track data collected in Banff National Park,Alberta,Canada,during winters from 1997 to 2000. The accuracy of the three spatial models were compared using a contingency table method. We determined the percentage of cases in which both presence and absence points were correctly classified (overall accuracy),the failure to predict a species where it occurred (omission error) and the prediction of presence where there was absence (commission error). Our overall accuracy showed the logistic regression approach was the most accurate (74.51% ). The multiple criteria evaluation was intermediate (39.22%),while the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory model was the poorest (29.90%). However,omission and commission error tell us a different story: logistic regression had the lowest commission error,while D-S theory produced the lowest omission error. Our results provide evidence that habitat modellers should evaluate all three error measures when ascribing confidence in their model. We suggest that for our study area at least,the logistic regression model is optimal. However,where sample size is small or the species is very rare,it may also be useful to explore and/or use a more ecologically cautious modelling approach (e.g. Dempster-Shafer) that would over-predict,protect more sites,and thereby minimize the risk of missing critical habitat in conservation plans.

  11. A search for the dominant free surface-fluctuation frequency downstream of the oscillating hydraulic jump with the Bayesian spectral density approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study the dynamics of the free surface fluctuation behind the oscillating hydraulic jump was modeled with a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator. Through the Bayesian spectral density approach, the uncertain parameters, namely the dominant frequency of the power spectrum, the damping ratio and the spectral intensity, were successfully identified based on laboratory measurements of six oscillating jumps with the Froude number ranging from 2.63 to 3.62. The identified dominant frequencies were found to be in good agreement with those estimated by a simple surface-roller generation–advection model, thus confirming the periodic large-scale turbulence formation process at the jump front. Meanwhile, the observed increase of the identified damping ratio with the Froude number is consistent with the increase of energy dissipation at higher Froude number. At the same time, the constant trend of spectral intensity implies that there is no significant change in the variance of the free surface fluctuation within the tested Froude number range. (paper)

  12. The prevalences of Salmonella Genomic Island 1 variants in human and animal Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 are distinguishable using a Bayesian approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison E Mather

    Full Text Available Throughout the 1990 s, there was an epidemic of multidrug resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 in both animals and humans in Scotland. The use of antimicrobials in agriculture is often cited as a major source of antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic bacteria of humans, suggesting that DT104 in animals and humans should demonstrate similar prevalences of resistance determinants. Until very recently, only the application of molecular methods would allow such a comparison and our understanding has been hindered by the fact that surveillance data are primarily phenotypic in nature. Here, using large scale surveillance datasets and a novel Bayesian approach, we infer and compare the prevalence of Salmonella Genomic Island 1 (SGI1, SGI1 variants, and resistance determinants independent of SGI1 in animal and human DT104 isolates from such phenotypic data. We demonstrate differences in the prevalences of SGI1, SGI1-B, SGI1-C, absence of SGI1, and tetracycline resistance determinants independent of SGI1 between these human and animal populations, a finding that challenges established tenets that DT104 in domestic animals and humans are from the same well-mixed microbial population.

  13. Exploring the measurement structure of the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS) in treatment-seekers: A Bayesian structural equation modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David; Woodman, Richard; Drummond, Aaron; Battersby, Malcolm

    2016-03-30

    Knowledge of a problem gambler's underlying gambling related cognitions plays an important role in treatment planning. The Gambling Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS) is therefore frequently used in clinical settings for screening and evaluation of treatment outcomes. However, GRCS validation studies have generated conflicting results regarding its latent structure using traditional confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). This may partly be due to the rigid constraints imposed on cross-factor loadings with traditional CFA. The aim of this investigation was to determine whether a Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) approach to examination of the GRCS factor structure would better replicate substantive theory and also inform model re-specifications. Participants were 454 treatment-seekers at first presentation to a gambling treatment centre between January 2012 and December 2014. Model fit indices were well below acceptable standards for CFA. In contrast, the BSEM model which included small informative priors for the residual covariance matrix in addition to cross-loadings produced excellent model fit for the original hypothesised factor structure. The results also informed re-specification of the CFA model which provided more reasonable model fit. These conclusions have implications that should be useful to both clinicians and researchers evaluating measurement models relating to gambling related cognitions in treatment-seekers. PMID:26921058

  14. Calibration of environmental radionuclide transfer models using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and model comparisons - Calibration of radionuclides transfer models in the environment using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and comparison of models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicoulaud-Gouin, V.; Giacalone, M.; Gonze, M.A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E (France); Martin-Garin, A.; Garcia-Sanchez, L. [IRSN-PRP-ENV/SERIS/L2BT (France)

    2014-07-01

    Calibration of transfer models according to observation data is a challenge, especially if parameters uncertainty is required, and if competing models should be decided between them. Generally two main calibration methods are used: The frequentist approach in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed fixed and its estimation is based on the data only. In this category, least squared method has many restrictions in nonlinear models and competing models need to be nested in order to be compared. The bayesian inference in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed random and its estimation is based on the data and on prior information. Compared to frequentist method, it provides probability density functions and therefore pointwise estimation with credible intervals. However, in practical cases, Bayesian inference is a complex problem of numerical integration, which explains its low use in operational modeling including radioecology. This study aims to illustrate the interest and feasibility of Bayesian approach in radioecology particularly in the case of ordinary differential equations with non-constant coefficients models, which cover most radiological risk assessment models, notably those implemented in the Symbiose platform (Gonze et al, 2010). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (Metropolis et al., 1953) was used because the posterior expectations are intractable integrals. The invariant distribution of the parameters was performed by the metropolis-Hasting algorithm (Hastings, 1970). GNU-MCSim software (Bois and Maszle, 2011) a bayesian hierarchical framework, was used to deal with nonlinear differential models. Two case studies including this type of model were investigated: An Equilibrium Kinetic sorption model (EK) (e.g. van Genuchten et al, 1974), with experimental data concerning {sup 137}Cs and {sup 85}Sr sorption and desorption in different soils studied in stirred flow-through reactors. This model, generalizing the K{sub d} approach

  15. Calibration of environmental radionuclide transfer models using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and model comparisons - Calibration of radionuclides transfer models in the environment using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and comparison of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calibration of transfer models according to observation data is a challenge, especially if parameters uncertainty is required, and if competing models should be decided between them. Generally two main calibration methods are used: The frequentist approach in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed fixed and its estimation is based on the data only. In this category, least squared method has many restrictions in nonlinear models and competing models need to be nested in order to be compared. The bayesian inference in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed random and its estimation is based on the data and on prior information. Compared to frequentist method, it provides probability density functions and therefore pointwise estimation with credible intervals. However, in practical cases, Bayesian inference is a complex problem of numerical integration, which explains its low use in operational modeling including radioecology. This study aims to illustrate the interest and feasibility of Bayesian approach in radioecology particularly in the case of ordinary differential equations with non-constant coefficients models, which cover most radiological risk assessment models, notably those implemented in the Symbiose platform (Gonze et al, 2010). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (Metropolis et al., 1953) was used because the posterior expectations are intractable integrals. The invariant distribution of the parameters was performed by the metropolis-Hasting algorithm (Hastings, 1970). GNU-MCSim software (Bois and Maszle, 2011) a bayesian hierarchical framework, was used to deal with nonlinear differential models. Two case studies including this type of model were investigated: An Equilibrium Kinetic sorption model (EK) (e.g. van Genuchten et al, 1974), with experimental data concerning 137Cs and 85Sr sorption and desorption in different soils studied in stirred flow-through reactors. This model, generalizing the Kd approach, distinguishes

  16. Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

  17. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  18. Supra-Bayesian Combination of Probability Distributions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    Veszprém : University of Pannonia, 2010, s. 112-117. ISBN 978-615-5044-00-7. [11th International PhD Workshop on Systems and Control. Veszprém (HU), 01.09.2010-03.09.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Supra-Bayesian approach * sharing of probabilistic information * Bayesian decision making Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/AS/seckarova-supra-bayesian combination of probability distributions.pdf

  19. A Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for probabilities that pairs of software components fail simultaneously

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Predicting the reliability of software systems based on a component-based approach is inherently difficult, in particular due to failure dependencies between software components. One possible way to assess and include dependency aspects in software reliability models is to find upper bounds for probabilities that software components fail simultaneously and then include these into the reliability models. In earlier research, it has been shown that including partial dependency information may g...

  20. Classification of Micro Array Gene Expression Data using Factor Analysis Approach with Naïve Bayesian Classifier

    OpenAIRE

    Tamilselvi Madeswaran; G.M.Kadhar Nawaz

    2013-01-01

    Microarray data studies produce large number of data and in order to analyze such large micro array data lies on Data mining or Statistical Analysis. Our objective is to classify the micro arraygene expression data. Usually before going for the classification the dimensionality reduction will be performed on the micro array gene expression dataset. A statistical approach for the extraction of thegene has been proposed. The drawback in the statistical analysis is that, it doesn’t identify the ...

  1. Interacting agricultural pests and their effect on crop yield: application of a Bayesian decision theory approach to the joint management of Bromus tectorum and Cephus cinctus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilai N Keren

    Full Text Available Worldwide, the landscape homogeneity of extensive monocultures that characterizes conventional agriculture has resulted in the development of specialized and interacting multitrophic pest complexes. While integrated pest management emphasizes the need to consider the ecological context where multiple species coexist, management recommendations are often based on single-species tactics. This approach may not provide satisfactory solutions when confronted with the complex interactions occurring between organisms at the same or different trophic levels. Replacement of the single-species management model with more sophisticated, multi-species programs requires an understanding of the direct and indirect interactions occurring between the crop and all categories of pests. We evaluated a modeling framework to make multi-pest management decisions taking into account direct and indirect interactions among species belonging to different trophic levels. We adopted a Bayesian decision theory approach in combination with path analysis to evaluate interactions between Bromus tectorum (downy brome, cheatgrass and Cephus cinctus (wheat stem sawfly in wheat (Triticum aestivum systems. We assessed their joint responses to weed management tactics, seeding rates, and cultivar tolerance to insect stem boring or competition. Our results indicated that C. cinctus oviposition behavior varied as a function of B. tectorum pressure. Crop responses were more readily explained by the joint effects of management tactics on both categories of pests and their interactions than just by the direct impact of any particular management scheme on yield. In accordance, a C. cinctus tolerant variety should be planted at a low seeding rate under high insect pressure. However as B. tectorum levels increase, the C. cinctus tolerant variety should be replaced by a competitive and drought tolerant cultivar at high seeding rates despite C. cinctus infestation. This study exemplifies the

  2. Assessment of type 1 diabetes risk conferred by HLA-DRB1, INS-VNTR and PTPN22 genes using the Bayesian network approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalba Portuesi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Determining genetic risk is a fundamental prerequisite for the implementation of primary prevention trials for type 1 diabetes (T1D. The aim of this study was to assess the risk conferred by HLA-DRB1, INS-VNTR and PTPN22 single genes on the onset of T1D and the joint risk conferred by all these three susceptibility loci using the Bayesian Network (BN approach in both population-based case-control and family clustering data sets. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A case-control French cohort, consisting of 868 T1D patients and 73 French control subjects, a French family data set consisting of 1694 T1D patients and 2340 controls were analysed. We studied both samples separately applying the BN probabilistic approach, that is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. As expected HLA-DRB1 is the most relevant susceptibility gene. We proved that INS and PTPN22 genes marginally influence T1D risk in all risk HLA-DRB1 genotype categories. The absolute risk conferred by carrying simultaneously high, moderate or low risk HLA-DRB1 genotypes together with at risk INS and PTPN22 genotypes, was 11.5%, 1.7% and 0.1% in the case-control sample and 19.8%, 6.6% and 2.2% in the family cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first study based on both case-control and family data sets, showing the joint effect of HLA, INS and PTPN22 in a T1D Caucasian population with a wide range of age at T1D onset, adding new insights to previous findings regarding data sets consisting of patients and controls <15 years at onset.

  3. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  4. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  5. Approximate Bayesian Approach to Non-Gaussian Estimation in a Linear Model with Dependent State and Noise Vectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper extends the results of Masreliez on the design of non-Gaussian estimators for a more general class of the parameter estimation problem when the system state and the observation noise may be dependent and non-Gaussian simultaneously. It is shown that the proposed non-Gaussian algorithms can approximate with high precision the minimum mean square estimator. Application of the approach to the design of different optimal (and stable) estimation algorithms is illustrated. The efficiency of the proposed algorithms is tested in some simulation experiments

  6. A Bayesian Framework for Active Artificial Perception

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira, Joao; Lobo, Jorge; Bessiere, Pierre; Castelo-Branco, M; Dias, Jorge

    2012-01-01

    In this text, we present a Bayesian framework for active multimodal perception of 3D structure and motion. The design of this framework finds its inspiration in the role of the dorsal perceptual pathway of the human brain. Its composing models build upon a common egocentric spatial configuration that is naturally fitting for the integration of readings from multiple sensors using a Bayesian approach. In the process, we will contribute with efficient and robust probabilistic solutions for cycl...

  7. Bayesian Classification in Medicine: The Transferability Question *

    OpenAIRE

    Zagoria, Ronald J.; Reggia, James A.; Price, Thomas R.; Banko, Maryann

    1981-01-01

    Using probabilities derived from a geographically distant patient population, we applied Bayesian classification to categorize stroke patients by etiology. Performance was assessed both by error rate and with a new linear accuracy coefficient. This approach to patient classification was found to be surprisingly accurate when compared to classification by two neurologists and to classification by the Bayesian method using “low cost” local and subjective probabilities. We conclude that for some...

  8. Multi-tissue analysis of co-expression networks by higher-order generalized singular value decomposition identifies functionally coherent transcriptional modules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent high-throughput efforts such as ENCODE have generated a large body of genome-scale transcriptional data in multiple conditions (e.g., cell-types and disease states. Leveraging these data is especially important for network-based approaches to human disease, for instance to identify coherent transcriptional modules (subnetworks that can inform functional disease mechanisms and pathological pathways. Yet, genome-scale network analysis across conditions is significantly hampered by the paucity of robust and computationally-efficient methods. Building on the Higher-Order Generalized Singular Value Decomposition, we introduce a new algorithmic approach for efficient, parameter-free and reproducible identification of network-modules simultaneously across multiple conditions. Our method can accommodate weighted (and unweighted networks of any size and can similarly use co-expression or raw gene expression input data, without hinging upon the definition and stability of the correlation used to assess gene co-expression. In simulation studies, we demonstrated distinctive advantages of our method over existing methods, which was able to recover accurately both common and condition-specific network-modules without entailing ad-hoc input parameters as required by other approaches. We applied our method to genome-scale and multi-tissue transcriptomic datasets from rats (microarray-based and humans (mRNA-sequencing-based and identified several common and tissue-specific subnetworks with functional significance, which were not detected by other methods. In humans we recapitulated the crosstalk between cell-cycle progression and cell-extracellular matrix interactions processes in ventricular zones during neocortex expansion and further, we uncovered pathways related to development of later cognitive functions in the cortical plate of the developing brain which were previously unappreciated. Analyses of seven rat tissues identified a multi-tissue

  9. Multi-tissue analysis of co-expression networks by higher-order generalized singular value decomposition identifies functionally coherent transcriptional modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xiaolin; Moreno-Moral, Aida; Rotival, Maxime; Bottolo, Leonardo; Petretto, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Recent high-throughput efforts such as ENCODE have generated a large body of genome-scale transcriptional data in multiple conditions (e.g., cell-types and disease states). Leveraging these data is especially important for network-based approaches to human disease, for instance to identify coherent transcriptional modules (subnetworks) that can inform functional disease mechanisms and pathological pathways. Yet, genome-scale network analysis across conditions is significantly hampered by the paucity of robust and computationally-efficient methods. Building on the Higher-Order Generalized Singular Value Decomposition, we introduce a new algorithmic approach for efficient, parameter-free and reproducible identification of network-modules simultaneously across multiple conditions. Our method can accommodate weighted (and unweighted) networks of any size and can similarly use co-expression or raw gene expression input data, without hinging upon the definition and stability of the correlation used to assess gene co-expression. In simulation studies, we demonstrated distinctive advantages of our method over existing methods, which was able to recover accurately both common and condition-specific network-modules without entailing ad-hoc input parameters as required by other approaches. We applied our method to genome-scale and multi-tissue transcriptomic datasets from rats (microarray-based) and humans (mRNA-sequencing-based) and identified several common and tissue-specific subnetworks with functional significance, which were not detected by other methods. In humans we recapitulated the crosstalk between cell-cycle progression and cell-extracellular matrix interactions processes in ventricular zones during neocortex expansion and further, we uncovered pathways related to development of later cognitive functions in the cortical plate of the developing brain which were previously unappreciated. Analyses of seven rat tissues identified a multi-tissue subnetwork of co

  10. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion......The problem of control quality of components is considered for the special case where the acceptable failure rate is low, the test costs are high and where it may be difficult or impossible to test the condition of interest directly. Based on the classical control theory and the concept of...... condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators. This...

  11. A SEMIPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN MODEL FOR CIRCULAR-LINEAR REGRESSION

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is usefu...

  12. Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images

    CERN Document Server

    Mohammadpour, Adel; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.

  13. Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadpour, Adel; Féron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2004-11-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.

  14. Elements of Bayesian experimental design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sivia, D.S. [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxon (United Kingdom)

    1997-09-01

    We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.

  15. Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Di Fatta, Giuseppe; Haworth, Guy McCrossan; Regan, Kenneth W.

    2009-01-01

    Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of ...

  16. Cover Tree Bayesian Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Tziortziotis, Nikolaos; Dimitrakakis, Christos; Blekas, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be updated in closed form. The tree structure itself is constructed using the cover tree method, which remains efficient in high dimensional spaces. We combine the model with Thompson sampling and approximate dynamic programming to obtain effective exploration po...

  17. Bayesian Optimization for Adaptive MCMC

    OpenAIRE

    Mahendran, Nimalan; Wang, Ziyu; Hamze, Firas; De Freitas, Nando

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy in the complex setting of sampling from constrained, discrete and densely connected probabilistic graphical models where, for each variation of the problem, one needs to adjust the parameters o...

  18. Bayesian analysis of contingency tables

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez Villegas, Miguel A.; González Pérez, Beatriz

    2005-01-01

    The display of the data by means of contingency tables is used in different approaches to statistical inference, for example, to broach the test of homogeneity of independent multinomial distributions. We develop a Bayesian procedure to test simple null hypotheses versus bilateral alternatives in contingency tables. Given independent samples of two binomial distributions and taking a mixed prior distribution, we calculate the posterior probability that the proportion of successes in the first...

  19. Bayesian Credit Ratings (new version)

    OpenAIRE

    Paola Cerchiello; Paolo Giudici

    2013-01-01

    In this contribution we aim at improving ordinal variable selection in the context of causal models. In this regard, we propose an approach that provides a formal inferential tool to compare the explanatory power of each covariate, and, therefore, to select an effective model for classification purposes. Our proposed model is Bayesian nonparametric, and, thus, keeps the amount of model specification to a minimum. We consider the case in which information from the covariates is at the ordinal ...

  20. A Bayesian approach for evaluation of the effect of water quality model parameter uncertainty on TMDLs: A case study of Miyun Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Shidong; Jia, Haifeng; Xu, Changqing; Xu, Te; Melching, Charles

    2016-08-01

    Facing increasingly serious water pollution, the Chinese government is changing the environmental management strategy from solely pollutant concentration control to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, and water quality models are increasingly being applied to determine the allowable pollutant load in the TMDL. Despite the frequent use of models, few studies have focused on how parameter uncertainty in water quality models affect the allowable pollutant loads in the TMDL program, particularly for complicated and high-dimension water quality models. Uncertainty analysis for such models is limited by time-consuming simulation and high-dimensionality and nonlinearity in parameter spaces. In this study, an allowable pollutant load calculation platform was established using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), which is a widely applied hydrodynamic-water quality model. A Bayesian approach, i.e. the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, which is a high-efficiency, multi-chain Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, was applied to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on the water quality model simulations and its influence on the allowable pollutant load calculation in the TMDL program. Miyun Reservoir, which is the most important surface drinking water source for Beijing, suffers from eutrophication and was selected as a case study. The relations between pollutant loads and water quality indicators are obtained through a graphical method in the simulation platform. Ranges of allowable pollutant loads were obtained according to the results of parameter uncertainty analysis, i.e. Total Organic Carbon (TOC): 581.5-1030.6t·yr(-1); Total Phosphorus (TP): 23.3-31.0t·yr(-1); and Total Nitrogen (TN): 480-1918.0t·yr(-1). The wide ranges of allowable pollutant loads reveal the importance of parameter uncertainty analysis in a TMDL program for allowable pollutant load calculation and margin of safety (MOS) determination. The sources

  1. The Bayesian Bootstrap

    OpenAIRE

    Rubin, Donald B.

    1981-01-01

    The Bayesian bootstrap is the Bayesian analogue of the bootstrap. Instead of simulating the sampling distribution of a statistic estimating a parameter, the Bayesian bootstrap simulates the posterior distribution of the parameter; operationally and inferentially the methods are quite similar. Because both methods of drawing inferences are based on somewhat peculiar model assumptions and the resulting inferences are generally sensitive to these assumptions, neither method should be applied wit...

  2. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  3. The Bayesian Modelling Of Inflation Rate In Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Simionescu

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian econometrics knew a considerable increase in popularity in the last years, joining the interests of various groups of researchers in economic sciences and additional ones as specialists in econometrics, commerce, industry, marketing, finance, micro-economy, macro-economy and other domains. The purpose of this research is to achieve an introduction in Bayesian approach applied in economics, starting with Bayes theorem. For the Bayesian linear regression models the methodology of estim...

  4. Chain ladder method: Bayesian bootstrap versus classical bootstrap

    OpenAIRE

    Peters, Gareth W.; Mario V. W\\"uthrich; Shevchenko, Pavel V.

    2010-01-01

    The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In this context, a novel numerical procedure utilising Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), ABC and a Bayesian bootstrap procedure was developed in a truly distribution-free setting. T...

  5. Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience

    OpenAIRE

    Bowers, J.S.; Davis, Colin J

    2012-01-01

    According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make three main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak at best. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account fo...

  6. Bayesian just-so stories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience.

    OpenAIRE

    Bowers, J.S.; Davis, Colin J

    2012-01-01

    According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make three main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak at best. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account fo...

  7. A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development

    OpenAIRE

    Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Xu, Fei

    2010-01-01

    We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in...

  8. Computational Enhancements to Bayesian Design of Experiments Using Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Weaver, Brian P.; Williams, Brian J.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Higdon, David M.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian design of experiments is a methodology for incorporating prior information into the design phase of an experiment. Unfortunately, the typical Bayesian approach to designing experiments is both numerically and analytically intractable without additional assumptions or approximations. In this paper, we discuss how Gaussian processes can be used to help alleviate the numerical issues associated with Bayesian design of experiments. We provide an example based on accelerated life tests an...

  9. A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Explore Alternative Decisions for Sediment Control and water Storage Capacity at Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on the water storage capacity of Lago Lucchetti (located in southwest Puerto Rico) and to forecast the life expectancy (usefulness) of the reservoir under different management scena...

  10. Comparison of linear mixed model analysis and genealogy-based haplotype clustering with a Bayesian approach for association mapping in a pedigreed population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dashab, Golam Reza; Kadri, Naveen Kumar; Mahdi Shariati, Mohammad;

    2012-01-01

    ) Mixed model analysis (MMA), 2) Random haplotype model (RHM), 3) Genealogy-based mixed model (GENMIX), and 4) Bayesian variable selection (BVS). The data consisted of phenotypes of 2000 animals from 20 sire families and were genotyped with 9990 SNPs on five chromosomes. Results: Out of the eight...

  11. On Fuzzy Bayesian Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia

    1990-01-01

    In the paper at hand we apply it to Bayesian statistics to obtain "Fuzzy Bayesian Inference". In the subsequent sections we will discuss a fuzzy valued likelihood function, Bayes' theorem for both fuzzy data and fuzzy priors, a fuzzy Bayes' estimator, fuzzy predictive densities and distributions, and fuzzy H.P.D .-Regions. (author's abstract)

  12. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  13. Dynamic Bayesian Combination of Multiple Imperfect Classifiers

    CERN Document Server

    Simpson, Edwin; Psorakis, Ioannis; Smith, Arfon

    2012-01-01

    Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can vary enormously in reliability. A Bayesian approach to such uncertain combination allows us to infer the differences in performance between individuals and to incorporate any available prior knowledge about their abilities when training data is sparse. In this paper we explore Bayesian classifier combination, using the computationally efficient framework of variational Bayesian inference. We apply the approach to real data from a large citizen science project, Galaxy Zoo Supernovae, and show that our method far outperforms other established approaches to imperfect decision combination. We go on to analyse the putative community structure of the decision makers, based on their inferred decision making strategies, and show that natural groupings are formed. Finally we present ...

  14. Nonparametric Bayesian Classification

    CERN Document Server

    Coram, M A

    2002-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if they are present in the unknown regression function $f_0$. An idealized one-dimensional problem is considered in detail. The proposed nonparametric prior uses random split points to partition the unit interval into a random number of pieces. This prior is found to provide a consistent estimate of the regression function in the $\\L^p$ topology, for any $1 \\leq p < \\infty$, and for arbitrary measurable $f_0:[0,1] \\rightarrow [0,1]$. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation is outlined and analyzed. Simulation experiments are conducted to show that the proposed estimate compares favorably with a variety of conventional estimators. A striking resemblance between the posterior mean estimate and the bagged CART estimate is noted and discussed. For higher dimensions, a ...

  15. Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

  16. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  17. Quantifying and Reducing Model-Form Uncertainties in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations: An Open-Box, Physics-Based, Bayesian Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Xiao, H; Wang, J -X; Sun, R; Roy, C J

    2015-01-01

    Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering applications. For many practical flows, the turbulence models are by far the most important source of uncertainty. In this work we develop an open-box, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Si...

  18. Bayesian kinematic earthquake source models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.; Genrich, J. F.; Galetzka, J. E.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Comte, D.; Glass, B.; Leiva, C.; Ortega, F. H.

    2009-12-01

    Most coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic slip models are based on highly regularized optimizations which yield one solution which satisfies the data given a particular set of regularizing constraints. This regularization hampers our ability to answer basic questions such as whether seismic and aseismic slip overlap or instead rupture separate portions of the fault zone. We present a Bayesian methodology for generating kinematic earthquake source models with a focus on large subduction zone earthquakes. Unlike classical optimization approaches, Bayesian techniques sample the ensemble of all acceptable models presented as an a posteriori probability density function (PDF), and thus we can explore the entire solution space to determine, for example, which model parameters are well determined and which are not, or what is the likelihood that two slip distributions overlap in space. Bayesian sampling also has the advantage that all a priori knowledge of the source process can be used to mold the a posteriori ensemble of models. Although very powerful, Bayesian methods have up to now been of limited use in geophysical modeling because they are only computationally feasible for problems with a small number of free parameters due to what is called the "curse of dimensionality." However, our methodology can successfully sample solution spaces of many hundreds of parameters, which is sufficient to produce finite fault kinematic earthquake models. Our algorithm is a modification of the tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (tempered MCMC or TMCMC) method. In our algorithm, we sample a "tempered" a posteriori PDF using many MCMC simulations running in parallel and evolutionary computation in which models which fit the data poorly are preferentially eliminated in favor of models which better predict the data. We present results for both synthetic test problems as well as for the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake, the latter of which is constrained by InSAR, local high

  19. A data-driven Bayesian approach for finding young stellar populations in early-type galaxies from their UV-optical spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Nolan, L A; Kaban, Ata; Raychaudhuri, S

    2006-01-01

    We present the results of a novel application of Bayesian modelling techniques, which, although purely data driven, have a physically interpretable result, and will be useful as an efficient data mining tool. We base our studies on the UV-to-optical spectra (observed and synthetic) of early-type galaxies. A probabilistic latent variable architecture is formulated, and a rigorous Bayesian methodology is employed for solving the inverse modelling problem from the available data. A powerful aspect of our formalism is that it allows us to recover a limited fraction of missing data due to incomplete spectral coverage, as well as to handle observational errors in a principled way. We apply this method to a sample of 21 well-studied early-type spectra, with known star-formation histories. We find that our data-driven Bayesian modelling allows us to identify those early-types which contain a significant stellar population <~ 1 Gyr old. This method would therefore be a very useful tool for automatically discovering...

  20. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.