Bayesian regularization of diffusion tensor images

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frandsen, Jesper; Hobolth, Asger; Østergaard, Leif

2007-01-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a powerful tool in the study of the course of nerve fibre bundles in the human brain. Using DTI, the local fibre orientation in each image voxel can be described by a diffusion tensor which is constructed from local measurements of diffusion coefficients along...... several directions. The measured diffusion coefficients and thereby the diffusion tensors are subject to noise, leading to possibly flawed representations of the three dimensional fibre bundles. In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for regularizing the diffusion tensor field, fully utilizing...

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

Conjunction analysis and propositional logic in fMRI data analysis using Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudert, Thomas; Lohmann, Gabriele

2008-12-01

To evaluate logical expressions over different effects in data analyses using the general linear model (GLM) and to evaluate logical expressions over different posterior probability maps (PPMs). In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, the GLM was applied to estimate unknown regression parameters. Based on the GLM, Bayesian statistics can be used to determine the probability of conjunction, disjunction, implication, or any other arbitrary logical expression over different effects or contrast. For second-level inferences, PPMs from individual sessions or subjects are utilized. These PPMs can be combined to a logical expression and its probability can be computed. The methods proposed in this article are applied to data from a STROOP experiment and the methods are compared to conjunction analysis approaches for test-statistics. The combination of Bayesian statistics with propositional logic provides a new approach for data analyses in fMRI. Two different methods are introduced for propositional logic: the first for analyses using the GLM and the second for common inferences about different probability maps. The methods introduced extend the idea of conjunction analysis to a full propositional logic and adapt it from test-statistics to Bayesian statistics. The new approaches allow inferences that are not possible with known standard methods in fMRI. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatio-Temporal Series Remote Sensing Image Prediction Based on Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Fusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu He

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Contradictions in spatial resolution and temporal coverage emerge from earth observation remote sensing images due to limitations in technology and cost. Therefore, how to combine remote sensing images with low spatial yet high temporal resolution as well as those with high spatial yet low temporal resolution to construct images with both high spatial resolution and high temporal coverage has become an important problem called spatio-temporal fusion problem in both research and practice. A Multi-Dictionary Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Reflectance Fusion Model (MDBFM has been proposed in this paper. First, multiple dictionaries from regions of different classes are trained. Second, a Bayesian framework is constructed to solve the dictionary selection problem. A pixel-dictionary likehood function and a dictionary-dictionary prior function are constructed under the Bayesian framework. Third, remote sensing images before and after the middle moment are combined to predict images at the middle moment. Diverse shapes and textures information is learned from different landscapes in multi-dictionary learning to help dictionaries capture the distinctions between regions. The Bayesian framework makes full use of the priori information while the input image is classified. The experiments with one simulated dataset and two satellite datasets validate that the MDBFM is highly effective in both subjective and objective evaluation indexes. The results of MDBFM show more precise details and have a higher similarity with real images when dealing with both type changes and phenology changes.

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-12-01

This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

Parallelized Bayesian inversion for three-dimensional dental X-ray imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolehmainen, Ville; Vanne, Antti; Siltanen, Samuli; Järvenpää, Seppo; Kaipio, Jari P; Lassas, Matti; Kalke, Martti

2006-02-01

Diagnostic and operational tasks based on dental radiology often require three-dimensional (3-D) information that is not available in a single X-ray projection image. Comprehensive 3-D information about tissues can be obtained by computerized tomography (CT) imaging. However, in dental imaging a conventional CT scan may not be available or practical because of high radiation dose, low-resolution or the cost of the CT scanner equipment. In this paper, we consider a novel type of 3-D imaging modality for dental radiology. We consider situations in which projection images of the teeth are taken from a few sparsely distributed projection directions using the dentist's regular (digital) X-ray equipment and the 3-D X-ray attenuation function is reconstructed. A complication in these experiments is that the reconstruction of the 3-D structure based on a few projection images becomes an ill-posed inverse problem. Bayesian inversion is a well suited framework for reconstruction from such incomplete data. In Bayesian inversion, the ill-posed reconstruction problem is formulated in a well-posed probabilistic form in which a priori information is used to compensate for the incomplete information of the projection data. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for 3-D reconstruction in dental radiology. The method is partially based on Kolehmainen et al. 2003. The prior model for dental structures consist of a weighted l1 and total variation (TV)-prior together with the positivity prior. The inverse problem is stated as finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. To make the 3-D reconstruction computationally feasible, a parallelized version of an optimization algorithm is implemented for a Beowulf cluster computer. The method is tested with projection data from dental specimens and patient data. Tomosynthetic reconstructions are given as reference for the proposed method.

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

CERN Document Server

Kruschke, John K

2011-01-01

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

Improved determination of the myelin water fraction in human brain using magnetic resonance imaging through Bayesian analysis of mcDESPOT.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouhrara, Mustapha; Spencer, Richard G

2016-02-15

Myelin water fraction (MWF) mapping with magnetic resonance imaging has led to the ability to directly observe myelination and demyelination in both the developing brain and in disease. Multicomponent driven equilibrium single pulse observation of T1 and T2 (mcDESPOT) has been proposed as a rapid approach for multicomponent relaxometry and has been applied to map MWF in the human brain. However, even for the simplest two-pool signal model consisting of myelin-associated and non-myelin-associated water, the dimensionality of the parameter space for obtaining MWF estimates remains high. This renders parameter estimation difficult, especially at low-to-moderate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), due to the presence of local minima and the flatness of the fit residual energy surface used for parameter determination using conventional nonlinear least squares (NLLS)-based algorithms. In this study, we introduce three Bayesian approaches for analysis of the mcDESPOT signal model to determine MWF. Given the high-dimensional nature of the mcDESPOT signal model, and, therefore the high-dimensional marginalizations over nuisance parameters needed to derive the posterior probability distribution of the MWF, the Bayesian analyses introduced here use different approaches to reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space. The first approach uses normalization by average signal amplitude, and assumes that noise can be accurately estimated from signal-free regions of the image. The second approach likewise uses average amplitude normalization, but incorporates a full treatment of noise as an unknown variable through marginalization. The third approach does not use amplitude normalization and incorporates marginalization over both noise and signal amplitude. Through extensive Monte Carlo numerical simulations and analysis of in vivo human brain datasets exhibiting a range of SNR and spatial resolution, we demonstrated markedly improved accuracy and precision in the estimation of MWF

Bayesian logistic regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

2007-01-01

In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

Fast gradient-based methods for Bayesian reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mumcuglu, E.U.; Leahy, R.; Zhou, Z.; Cherry, S.R.

1994-01-01

The authors describe conjugate gradient algorithms for reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images. The reconstructions are based on a Bayesian formulation, where the data are modeled as a collection of independent Poisson random variables and the image is modeled using a Markov random field. A conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image by maximizing over the posterior density. To ensure nonnegativity of the solution, a penalty function is used to convert the problem to one of unconstrained optimization. Preconditioners are used to enhance convergence rates. These methods generally achieve effective convergence in 15--25 iterations. Reconstructions are presented of an 18 FDG whole body scan from data collected using a Siemens/CTI ECAT931 whole body system. These results indicate significant improvements in emission image quality using the Bayesian approach, in comparison to filtered backprojection, particularly when reprojections of the MAP transmission image are used in place of the standard attenuation correction factors

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Intensity-based bayesian framework for image reconstruction from sparse projection data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashed, E.A.; Kudo, Hiroyuki

2009-01-01

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for iterative image reconstruction from projection data measured over a limited number of views. The classical Nyquist sampling rule yields the minimum number of projection views required for accurate reconstruction. However, challenges exist in many medical and industrial imaging applications in which the projection data is undersampled. Classical analytical reconstruction methods such as filtered backprojection (FBP) are not a good choice for use in such cases because the data undersampling in the angular range introduces aliasing and streak artifacts that degrade lesion detectability. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for maximum likelihood-expectation maximization (ML-EM)-based iterative reconstruction methods that incorporates a priori knowledge obtained from expected intensity information. The proposed framework is based on the fact that, in tomographic imaging, it is often possible to expect a set of intensity values of the reconstructed object with relatively high accuracy. The image reconstruction cost function is modified to include the l 1 norm distance to the a priori known information. The proposed method has the potential to regularize the solution to reduce artifacts without missing lesions that cannot be expected from the a priori information. Numerical studies showed a significant improvement in image quality and lesion detectability under the condition of highly undersampled projection data. (author)

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

Image interpolation via graph-based Bayesian label propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Xianming Liu; Debin Zhao; Jiantao Zhou; Wen Gao; Huifang Sun

2014-03-01

In this paper, we propose a novel image interpolation algorithm via graph-based Bayesian label propagation. The basic idea is to first create a graph with known and unknown pixels as vertices and with edge weights encoding the similarity between vertices, then the problem of interpolation converts to how to effectively propagate the label information from known points to unknown ones. This process can be posed as a Bayesian inference, in which we try to combine the principles of local adaptation and global consistency to obtain accurate and robust estimation. Specially, our algorithm first constructs a set of local interpolation models, which predict the intensity labels of all image samples, and a loss term will be minimized to keep the predicted labels of the available low-resolution (LR) samples sufficiently close to the original ones. Then, all of the losses evaluated in local neighborhoods are accumulated together to measure the global consistency on all samples. Moreover, a graph-Laplacian-based manifold regularization term is incorporated to penalize the global smoothness of intensity labels, such smoothing can alleviate the insufficient training of the local models and make them more robust. Finally, we construct a unified objective function to combine together the global loss of the locally linear regression, square error of prediction bias on the available LR samples, and the manifold regularization term. It can be solved with a closed-form solution as a convex optimization problem. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves competitive performance with the state-of-the-art image interpolation algorithms.

Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis: factoring the problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthysse, S

2000-01-01

Complex segregation analysis and linkage methods are mathematical techniques for the genetic dissection of complex diseases. They are used to delineate complex modes of familial transmission and to localize putative disease susceptibility loci to specific chromosomal locations. The computational problem of Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis is one of integration in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, three available techniques for Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis are discussed: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance sampling, and exact calculation. The contribution of each to the overall integration will be explicitly discussed.

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-12-01

Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Image Restoration Using a Large-Scale Total Patch Variation Prior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Chen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Edge-preserving Bayesian restorations using nonquadratic priors are often inefficient in restoring continuous variations and tend to produce block artifacts around edges in ill-posed inverse image restorations. To overcome this, we have proposed a spatial adaptive (SA prior with improved performance. However, this SA prior restoration suffers from high computational cost and the unguaranteed convergence problem. Concerning these issues, this paper proposes a Large-scale Total Patch Variation (LS-TPV Prior model for Bayesian image restoration. In this model, the prior for each pixel is defined as a singleton conditional probability, which is in a mixture prior form of one patch similarity prior and one weight entropy prior. A joint MAP estimation is thus built to ensure the iteration monotonicity. The intensive calculation of patch distances is greatly alleviated by the parallelization of Compute Unified Device Architecture(CUDA. Experiments with both simulated and real data validate the good performance of the proposed restoration.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

Science.gov (United States)

Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

2013-01-01

The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

2015-01-01

are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

Image Denoising via Bayesian Estimation of Statistical Parameter Using Generalized Gamma Density Prior in Gaussian Noise Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kittisuwan, Pichid

2015-03-01

The application of image processing in industry has shown remarkable success over the last decade, for example, in security and telecommunication systems. The denoising of natural image corrupted by Gaussian noise is a classical problem in image processing. So, image denoising is an indispensable step during image processing. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. One of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the statistical parameter of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with generalized Gamma density prior for local observed variance and Laplacian or Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by efficient and flexible properties of generalized Gamma density. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

CERN Document Server

Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

2015-01-01

This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

2004-09-01

ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

Entropy, Information Theory, Information Geometry and Bayesian Inference in Data, Signal and Image Processing and Inverse Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Mohammad-Djafari

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The main content of this review article is first to review the main inference tools using Bayes rule, the maximum entropy principle (MEP, information theory, relative entropy and the Kullback–Leibler (KL divergence, Fisher information and its corresponding geometries. For each of these tools, the precise context of their use is described. The second part of the paper is focused on the ways these tools have been used in data, signal and image processing and in the inverse problems, which arise in different physical sciences and engineering applications. A few examples of the applications are described: entropy in independent components analysis (ICA and in blind source separation, Fisher information in data model selection, different maximum entropy-based methods in time series spectral estimation and in linear inverse problems and, finally, the Bayesian inference for general inverse problems. Some original materials concerning the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC and, in particular, the variational Bayesian approximation (VBA methods are also presented. VBA is used for proposing an alternative Bayesian computational tool to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods. We will also see that VBA englobes joint maximum a posteriori (MAP, as well as the different expectation-maximization (EM algorithms as particular cases.

An automated land-use mapping comparison of the Bayesian maximum likelihood and linear discriminant analysis algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Tom, C. H.; Miller, L. D.

1984-01-01

The Bayesian maximum likelihood parametric classifier has been tested against the data-based formulation designated 'linear discrimination analysis', using the 'GLIKE' decision and "CLASSIFY' classification algorithms in the Landsat Mapping System. Identical supervised training sets, USGS land use/land cover classes, and various combinations of Landsat image and ancilliary geodata variables, were used to compare the algorithms' thematic mapping accuracy on a single-date summer subscene, with a cellularized USGS land use map of the same time frame furnishing the ground truth reference. CLASSIFY, which accepts a priori class probabilities, is found to be more accurate than GLIKE, which assumes equal class occurrences, for all three mapping variable sets and both levels of detail. These results may be generalized to direct accuracy, time, cost, and flexibility advantages of linear discriminant analysis over Bayesian methods.

Bayesian image reconstruction for emission tomography based on median root prior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alenius, S.

1997-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate a new type of Bayesian one-step late reconstruction method which utilizes a median root prior (MRP). The method favours images which have locally monotonous radioactivity concentrations. The new reconstruction algorithm was applied to ideal simulated data, phantom data and some patient examinations with PET. The same projection data were reconstructed with filtered back-projection (FBP) and maximum likelihood-expectation maximization (ML-EM) methods for comparison. The MRP method provided good-quality images with a similar resolution to the FBP method with a ramp filter, and at the same time the noise properties were as good as with Hann-filtered FBP images. The typical artefacts seen in FBP reconstructed images outside of the object were completely removed, as was the grainy noise inside the object. Quantitativley, the resulting average regional radioactivity concentrations in a large region of interest in images produced by the MRP method corresponded to the FBP and ML-EM results but at the pixel by pixel level the MRP method proved to be the most accurate of the tested methods. In contrast to other iterative reconstruction methods, e.g. ML-EM, the MRP method was not sensitive to the number of iterations nor to the adjustment of reconstruction parameters. Only the Bayesian parameter β had to be set. The proposed MRP method is much more simple to calculate than the methods described previously, both with regard to the parameter settings and in terms of general use. The new MRP reconstruction method was shown to produce high-quality quantitative emission images with only one parameter setting in addition to the number of iterations. (orig.)

cudaBayesreg: Parallel Implementation of a Bayesian Multilevel Model for fMRI Data Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adelino R. Ferreira da Silva

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Graphic processing units (GPUs are rapidly gaining maturity as powerful general parallel computing devices. A key feature in the development of modern GPUs has been the advancement of the programming model and programming tools. Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA is a software platform for massively parallel high-performance computing on Nvidia many-core GPUs. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, the volume of the data to be processed, and the type of statistical analysis to perform call for high-performance computing strategies. In this work, we present the main features of the R-CUDA package cudaBayesreg which implements in CUDA the core of a Bayesian multilevel model for the analysis of brain fMRI data. The statistical model implements a Gibbs sampler for multilevel/hierarchical linear models with a normal prior. The main contribution for the increased performance comes from the use of separate threads for fitting the linear regression model at each voxel in parallel. The R-CUDA implementation of the Bayesian model proposed here has been able to reduce significantly the run-time processing of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations used in Bayesian fMRI data analyses. Presently, cudaBayesreg is only configured for Linux systems with Nvidia CUDA support.

Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model

Science.gov (United States)

Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato

2018-02-01

This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.

Non-parametric Bayesian models of response function in dynamic image sequences

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav

2016-01-01

Roč. 151, č. 1 (2016), s. 90-100 ISSN 1077-3142 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Response function * Blind source separation * Dynamic medical imaging * Probabilistic models * Bayesian methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.498, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0456983.pdf

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal

Self-consistent Bayesian analysis of space-time symmetry studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, E.D.

1996-01-01

We introduce a Bayesian method for the analysis of epithermal neutron transmission data on space-time symmetries in which unique assignment of the prior is achieved by maximisation of the cross entropy and the imposition of a self-consistency criterion. Unlike the maximum likelihood method used in previous analyses of parity-violation data, our method is freed of an ad hoc cutoff parameter. Monte Carlo studies indicate that our self-consistent Bayesian analysis is superior to the maximum likelihood method when applied to the small data samples typical of symmetry studies. (orig.)

Logarithmic Laplacian Prior Based Bayesian Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shuanghui; Liu, Yongxiang; Li, Xiang; Bi, Guoan

2016-04-28

This paper presents a novel Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging (ISAR) algorithm based on a new sparse prior, known as the logarithmic Laplacian prior. The newly proposed logarithmic Laplacian prior has a narrower main lobe with higher tail values than the Laplacian prior, which helps to achieve performance improvement on sparse representation. The logarithmic Laplacian prior is used for ISAR imaging within the Bayesian framework to achieve better focused radar image. In the proposed method of ISAR imaging, the phase errors are jointly estimated based on the minimum entropy criterion to accomplish autofocusing. The maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are utilized to estimate the model parameters to avoid manually tuning process. Additionally, the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Hadamard product are used to minimize the required computational efficiency. Experimental results based on both simulated and measured data validate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the traditional sparse ISAR imaging algorithms in terms of resolution improvement and noise suppression.

Logarithmic Laplacian Prior Based Bayesian Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuanghui Zhang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a novel Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Imaging (ISAR algorithm based on a new sparse prior, known as the logarithmic Laplacian prior. The newly proposed logarithmic Laplacian prior has a narrower main lobe with higher tail values than the Laplacian prior, which helps to achieve performance improvement on sparse representation. The logarithmic Laplacian prior is used for ISAR imaging within the Bayesian framework to achieve better focused radar image. In the proposed method of ISAR imaging, the phase errors are jointly estimated based on the minimum entropy criterion to accomplish autofocusing. The maximum a posterior (MAP estimation and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE are utilized to estimate the model parameters to avoid manually tuning process. Additionally, the fast Fourier Transform (FFT and Hadamard product are used to minimize the required computational efficiency. Experimental results based on both simulated and measured data validate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the traditional sparse ISAR imaging algorithms in terms of resolution improvement and noise suppression.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Near Surface Electromagnetic Imaging Using Bayesian Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Blatter, D. B.; Ray, A.; Key, K.

2017-12-01

Geoscientists commonly use electromagnetic methods to image the Earth's near surface. Field measurements of EM fields are made (often with the aid an artificial EM source) and then used to infer near surface electrical conductivity via a process known as inversion. In geophysics, the standard inversion tool kit is robust and can provide an estimate of the Earth's near surface conductivity that is both geologically reasonable and compatible with the measured field data. However, standard inverse methods struggle to provide a sense of the uncertainty in the estimate they provide. This is because the task of finding an Earth model that explains the data to within measurement error is non-unique - that is, there are many, many such models; but the standard methods provide only one "answer." An alternative method, known as Bayesian inversion, seeks to explore the full range of Earth model parameters that can adequately explain the measured data, rather than attempting to find a single, "ideal" model. Bayesian inverse methods can therefore provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty inherent in trying to infer near surface conductivity from noisy, measured field data. This study applies a Bayesian inverse method (called trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo) to transient airborne EM data previously collected over Taylor Valley - one of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. Our results confirm the reasonableness of previous estimates (made using standard methods) of near surface conductivity beneath Taylor Valley. In addition, we demonstrate quantitatively the uncertainty associated with those estimates. We demonstrate that Bayesian inverse methods can provide quantitative uncertainty to estimates of near surface conductivity.

Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis with the R package BCEA

CERN Document Server

Baio, Gianluca; Heath, Anna

2017-01-01

The book provides a description of the process of health economic evaluation and modelling for cost-effectiveness analysis, particularly from the perspective of a Bayesian statistical approach. Some relevant theory and introductory concepts are presented using practical examples and two running case studies. The book also describes in detail how to perform health economic evaluations using the R package BCEA (Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis). BCEA can be used to post-process the results of a Bayesian cost-effectiveness model and perform advanced analyses producing standardised and highly customisable outputs. It presents all the features of the package, including its many functions and their practical application, as well as its user-friendly web interface. The book is a valuable resource for statisticians and practitioners working in the field of health economics wanting to simplify and standardise their workflow, for example in the preparation of dossiers in support of marketing authorisation, or acade...

Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel

2017-10-01

The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Bayesian multi-scale smoothing of photon-limited images with applications to astronomy and medicine

Science.gov (United States)

White, John

Multi-scale models for smoothing Poisson signals or images have gained much attention over the past decade. A new Bayesian model is developed using the concept of the Chinese restaurant process to find structures in two-dimensional images when performing image reconstruction or smoothing. This new model performs very well when compared to other leading methodologies for the same problem. It is developed and evaluated theoretically and empirically throughout Chapter 2. The newly developed Bayesian model is extended to three-dimensional images in Chapter 3. The third dimension has numerous different applications, such as different energy spectra, another spatial index, or possibly a temporal dimension. Empirically, this method shows promise in reducing error with the use of simulation studies. A further development removes background noise in the image. This removal can further reduce the error and is done using a modeling adjustment and post-processing techniques. These details are given in Chapter 4. Applications to real world problems are given throughout. Photon-based images are common in astronomical imaging due to the collection of different types of energy such as X-Rays. Applications to real astronomical images are given, and these consist of X-ray images from the Chandra X-ray observatory satellite. Diagnostic medicine uses many types of imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography that can also benefit from smoothing techniques such as the one developed here. Reducing the amount of radiation a patient takes will make images more noisy, but this can be mitigated through the use of image smoothing techniques. Both types of images represent the potential real world use for these methods.

Operational modal analysis modeling, Bayesian inference, uncertainty laws

CERN Document Server

Au, Siu-Kui

2017-01-01

This book presents operational modal analysis (OMA), employing a coherent and comprehensive Bayesian framework for modal identification and covering stochastic modeling, theoretical formulations, computational algorithms, and practical applications. Mathematical similarities and philosophical differences between Bayesian and classical statistical approaches to system identification are discussed, allowing their mathematical tools to be shared and their results correctly interpreted. Many chapters can be used as lecture notes for the general topic they cover beyond the OMA context. After an introductory chapter (1), Chapters 2–7 present the general theory of stochastic modeling and analysis of ambient vibrations. Readers are first introduced to the spectral analysis of deterministic time series (2) and structural dynamics (3), which do not require the use of probability concepts. The concepts and techniques in these chapters are subsequently extended to a probabilistic context in Chapter 4 (on stochastic pro...

Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andras Fulop

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.

Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

KAUST Repository

Cheon, Sooyoung; Liang, Faming

2009-01-01

in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method

Review of bayesian statistical analysis methods for cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry, with a practical example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Lloyd, David C.; Rothkamm, Kai; Vinnikov, Volodymyr A.; Maznyk, Nataliya A.; Puig, Pedro; Higueras, Manuel

2014-01-01

Classical methods of assessing the uncertainty associated with radiation doses estimated using cytogenetic techniques are now extremely well defined. However, several authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach to uncertainty estimation may be more suitable for cytogenetic data, which are inherently stochastic in nature. The Bayesian analysis framework focuses on identification of probability distributions (for yield of aberrations or estimated dose), which also means that uncertainty is an intrinsic part of the analysis, rather than an 'afterthought'. In this paper Bayesian, as well as some more advanced classical, data analysis methods for radiation cytogenetics are reviewed that have been proposed in the literature. A practical overview of Bayesian cytogenetic dose estimation is also presented, with worked examples from the literature. (authors)

Incorporating Open Source Data for Bayesian Classification of Urban Land Use From VHR Stereo Images

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, Mengmeng; De Beurs, Kirsten M.; Stein, Alfred; Bijker, Wietske

2017-01-01

This study investigates the incorporation of open source data into a Bayesian classification of urban land use from very high resolution (VHR) stereo satellite images. The adopted classification framework starts from urban land cover classification, proceeds to building-type characterization, and

Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horváth, Roman

2011-01-01

Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

KAUST Repository

Cheon, Sooyoung

2009-11-01

Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics

Science.gov (United States)

Trassinelli, Martino

2017-10-01

We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested_fit to calculate the different probability distributions and other related quantities. Nested_fit is a Fortran90/Python code developed during the last years for analysis of atomic spectra. As indicated by the name, it is based on the nested algorithm, which is presented in details together with the program itself.

Bayesian grid matching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

2003-01-01

A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

An Analysis of Construction Accident Factors Based on Bayesian Network

OpenAIRE

Yunsheng Zhao; Jinyong Pei

2013-01-01

In this study, we have an analysis of construction accident factors based on bayesian network. Firstly, accidents cases are analyzed to build Fault Tree method, which is available to find all the factors causing the accidents, then qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the factors with Bayesian network method, finally determines the safety management program to guide the safety operations. The results of this study show that bad condition of geological environment has the largest posterio...

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

Science.gov (United States)

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-03-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre - stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching (BHM), to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the borehole DSDP-258 located in the Mentelle Basin, south west of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ± 2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), leg 369.

Bayesian 3D X-ray computed tomography image reconstruction with a scaled Gaussian mixture prior model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Li; Gac, Nicolas; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

2015-01-01

In order to improve quality of 3D X-ray tomography reconstruction for Non Destructive Testing (NDT), we investigate in this paper hierarchical Bayesian methods. In NDT, useful prior information on the volume like the limited number of materials or the presence of homogeneous area can be included in the iterative reconstruction algorithms. In hierarchical Bayesian methods, not only the volume is estimated thanks to the prior model of the volume but also the hyper parameters of this prior. This additional complexity in the reconstruction methods when applied to large volumes (from 512 3 to 8192 3 voxels) results in an increasing computational cost. To reduce it, the hierarchical Bayesian methods investigated in this paper lead to an algorithm acceleration by Variational Bayesian Approximation (VBA) [1] and hardware acceleration thanks to projection and back-projection operators paralleled on many core processors like GPU [2]. In this paper, we will consider a Student-t prior on the gradient of the image implemented in a hierarchical way [3, 4, 1]. Operators H (forward or projection) and H t (adjoint or back-projection) implanted in multi-GPU [2] have been used in this study. Different methods will be evalued on synthetic volume 'Shepp and Logan' in terms of quality and time of reconstruction. We used several simple regularizations of order 1 and order 2. Other prior models also exists [5]. Sometimes for a discrete image, we can do the segmentation and reconstruction at the same time, then the reconstruction can be done with less projections

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

A novel image fusion algorithm based on 2D scale-mixing complex wavelet transform and Bayesian MAP estimation for multimodal medical images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdallah Bengueddoudj

2017-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new image fusion algorithm based on two-dimensional Scale-Mixing Complex Wavelet Transform (2D-SMCWT. The fusion of the detail 2D-SMCWT coefficients is performed via a Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori (MAP approach by considering a trivariate statistical model for the local neighboring of 2D-SMCWT coefficients. For the approximation coefficients, a new fusion rule based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA is applied. We conduct several experiments using three different groups of multimodal medical images to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The obtained results prove the superiority of the proposed method over the state of the art fusion methods in terms of visual quality and several commonly used metrics. Robustness of the proposed method is further tested against different types of noise. The plots of fusion metrics establish the accuracy of the proposed fusion method.

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

Bayesian estimation of regularization and atlas building in diffeomorphic image registration.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Miaomiao; Singh, Nikhil; Fletcher, P Thomas

2013-01-01

This paper presents a generative Bayesian model for diffeomorphic image registration and atlas building. We develop an atlas estimation procedure that simultaneously estimates the parameters controlling the smoothness of the diffeomorphic transformations. To achieve this, we introduce a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization algorithm, where the expectation step is approximated via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling on the manifold of diffeomorphisms. An added benefit of this stochastic approach is that it can successfully solve difficult registration problems involving large deformations, where direct geodesic optimization fails. Using synthetic data generated from the forward model with known parameters, we demonstrate the ability of our model to successfully recover the atlas and regularization parameters. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the atlas estimation problem for 3D brain images.

Naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial features: a theoretical analysis

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Van Dyk, E

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The authors investigate the use of naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial feature spaces and derive error estimates for these classifiers. The error analysis is done by developing a mathematical model to estimate the probability density...

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

2014-04-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Byung Do

2006-01-01

During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

Empirical Bayesian estimation in graphical analysis: a voxel-based approach for the determination of the volume of distribution in PET studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zanderigo, Francesca [Department of Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology, New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY (United States)], E-mail: francesca.zanderigo@gmail.com; Ogden, R. Todd [Department of Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology, New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY (United States); Department of Psychiatry, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY (United States); Bertoldo, Alessandra; Cobelli, Claudio [Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova (Italy); Mann, J. John; Parsey, Ramin V. [Department of Molecular Imaging and Neuropathology, New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY (United States); Department of Psychiatry, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)

2010-05-15

Introduction: Total volume of distribution (V{sub T}) determined by graphical analysis (GA) of PET data suffers from a noise-dependent bias. Likelihood estimation in GA (LEGA) eliminates this bias at the region of interest (ROI) level, but at voxel noise levels, the variance of estimators is high, yielding noisy images. We hypothesized that incorporating LEGA V{sub T} estimation in a Bayesian framework would shrink estimators towards prior means, reducing variability and producing meaningful and useful voxel images. Methods: Empirical Bayesian estimation in GA (EBEGA) determines prior distributions using a two-step k-means clustering of voxel activity. Results obtained on eight [{sup 11}C]-DASB studies are compared with estimators computed by ROI-based LEGA. Results: EBEGA reproduces the results obtained by ROI LEGA while providing low-variability V{sub T} images. Correlation coefficients between average EBEGA V{sub T} and corresponding ROI LEGA V{sub T} range from 0.963 to 0.994. Conclusions: EBEGA is a fully automatic and general approach that can be applied to voxel-level V{sub T} image creation and to any modeling strategy to reduce voxel-level estimation variability without prefiltering of the PET data.

Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

2018-06-01

Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2-D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre-stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching, to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) borehole 258 (DSDP-258) located in the Mentelle Basin, southwest of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ±2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent to the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program, leg 369.

Bayesian inference – a way to combine statistical data and semantic analysis meaningfully

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eila Lindfors

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on presenting the possibilities of Bayesian modelling (Finite Mixture Modelling in the semantic analysis of statistically modelled data. The probability of a hypothesis in relation to the data available is an important question in inductive reasoning. Bayesian modelling allows the researcher to use many models at a time and provides tools to evaluate the goodness of different models. The researcher should always be aware that there is no such thing as the exact probability of an exact event. This is the reason for using probabilistic models. Each model presents a different perspective on the phenomenon in focus, and the researcher has to choose the most probable model with a view to previous research and the knowledge available.The idea of Bayesian modelling is illustrated here by presenting two different sets of data, one from craft science research (n=167 and the other (n=63 from educational research (Lindfors, 2007, 2002. The principles of how to build models and how to combine different profiles are described in the light of the research mentioned.Bayesian modelling is an analysis based on calculating probabilities in relation to a specific set of quantitative data. It is a tool for handling data and interpreting it semantically. The reliability of the analysis arises from an argumentation of which model can be selected from the model space as the basis for an interpretation, and on which arguments.Keywords: method, sloyd, Bayesian modelling, student teachersURN:NBN:no-29959

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Bayesian methods to restore and re build images: application to gamma-graphy and to photofission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stawinski, G.

1998-01-01

Bayesian algorithms are developed to solve inverse problems in gamma imaging and photofission tomography. The first part of this work is devoted to the modeling of our measurement systems. Two models have been found for both applications: the first one is a simple conventional model and the second one is a cascaded point process model. EM and MCMC Bayesian algorithms for image restoration and image reconstruction have been developed for these models and compared. The cascaded point process model does not improve significantly the results previously obtained by the classical model. To original approaches have been proposed, which increase the results previously obtained. The first approach uses an inhomogeneous Markov Random Field as a prior law, and makes the regularization parameter spatially vary. However, the problem of the estimation of hyper-parameters has not been solved. In the case of the deconvolution of point sources, a second approach has been proposed, which introduces a high level prior model. The picture is modeled as a list of objects, whose parameters and number are unknown. The results obtained with this method are more accurate than those obtained with the conventional Markov Random Field prior model and require less computational costs. (author)

The Relevance Voxel Machine (RVoxM): A Self-Tuning Bayesian Model for Informative Image-Based Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabuncu, Mert R.; Van Leemput, Koen

2012-01-01

This paper presents the relevance voxel machine (RVoxM), a dedicated Bayesian model for making predictions based on medical imaging data. In contrast to the generic machine learning algorithms that have often been used for this purpose, the method is designed to utilize a small number of spatially...

Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data: a comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Song Joon J

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the growing abundance of microarray data, statistical methods are increasingly needed to integrate results across studies. Two common approaches for meta-analysis of microarrays include either combining gene expression measures across studies or combining summaries such as p-values, probabilities or ranks. Here, we compare two Bayesian meta-analysis models that are analogous to these methods. Results Two Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data have recently been introduced. The first model combines standardized gene expression measures across studies into an overall mean, accounting for inter-study variability, while the second combines probabilities of differential expression without combining expression values. Both models produce the gene-specific posterior probability of differential expression, which is the basis for inference. Since the standardized expression integration model includes inter-study variability, it may improve accuracy of results versus the probability integration model. However, due to the small number of studies typical in microarray meta-analyses, the variability between studies is challenging to estimate. The probability integration model eliminates the need to model variability between studies, and thus its implementation is more straightforward. We found in simulations of two and five studies that combining probabilities outperformed combining standardized gene expression measures for three comparison values: the percent of true discovered genes in meta-analysis versus individual studies; the percent of true genes omitted in meta-analysis versus separate studies, and the number of true discovered genes for fixed levels of Bayesian false discovery. We identified similar results when pooling two independent studies of Bacillus subtilis. We assumed that each study was produced from the same microarray platform with only two conditions: a treatment and control, and that the data sets

Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Cripps

2016-07-01

Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

Multispectral analysis of multimodal images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kvinnsland, Yngve; Brekke, Njaal (Dept. of Surgical Sciences, Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway)); Taxt, Torfinn M.; Gruener, Renate (Dept. of Biomedicine, Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway))

2009-02-15

An increasing number of multimodal images represent a valuable increase in available image information, but at the same time it complicates the extraction of diagnostic information across the images. Multispectral analysis (MSA) has the potential to simplify this problem substantially as unlimited number of images can be combined, and tissue properties across the images can be extracted automatically. Materials and methods. We have developed a software solution for MSA containing two algorithms for unsupervised classification, an EM-algorithm finding multinormal class descriptions and the k-means clustering algorithm, and two for supervised classification, a Bayesian classifier using multinormal class descriptions and a kNN-algorithm. The software has an efficient user interface for the creation and manipulation of class descriptions, and it has proper tools for displaying the results. Results. The software has been tested on different sets of images. One application is to segment cross-sectional images of brain tissue (T1- and T2-weighted MR images) into its main normal tissues and brain tumors. Another interesting set of images are the perfusion maps and diffusion maps, derived images from raw MR images. The software returns segmentation that seem to be sensible. Discussion. The MSA software appears to be a valuable tool for image analysis with multimodal images at hand. It readily gives a segmentation of image volumes that visually seems to be sensible. However, to really learn how to use MSA, it will be necessary to gain more insight into what tissues the different segments contain, and the upcoming work will therefore be focused on examining the tissues through for example histological sections.

Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

2014-08-01

In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

KAUST Repository

Jin, Ick Hoon

2014-03-01

Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian statistics applied to neutron activation data for reactor flux spectrum analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiesa, Davide; Previtali, Ezio; Sisti, Monica

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Bayesian statistics to analyze the neutron flux spectrum from activation data. • Rigorous statistical approach for accurate evaluation of the neutron flux groups. • Cross section and activation data uncertainties included for the problem solution. • Flexible methodology applied to analyze different nuclear reactor flux spectra. • The results are in good agreement with the MCNP simulations of neutron fluxes. - Abstract: In this paper, we present a statistical method, based on Bayesian statistics, to analyze the neutron flux spectrum from the activation data of different isotopes. The experimental data were acquired during a neutron activation experiment performed at the TRIGA Mark II reactor of Pavia University (Italy) in four irradiation positions characterized by different neutron spectra. In order to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum, subdivided in energy groups, a system of linear equations, containing the group effective cross sections and the activation rate data, has to be solved. However, since the system’s coefficients are experimental data affected by uncertainties, a rigorous statistical approach is fundamental for an accurate evaluation of the neutron flux groups. For this purpose, we applied the Bayesian statistical analysis, that allows to include the uncertainties of the coefficients and the a priori information about the neutron flux. A program for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, was used to define the problem statistical model and solve it. The first analysis involved the determination of the thermal, resonance-intermediate and fast flux components and the dependence of the results on the Prior distribution choice was investigated to confirm the reliability of the Bayesian analysis. After that, the main resonances of the activation cross sections were analyzed to implement multi-group models with finer energy subdivisions that would allow to determine the

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

De Waal, AJ

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2008-01-01

textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

Theoretical evaluation of the detectability of random lesions in bayesian emission reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, Jinyi

2003-01-01

Detecting cancerous lesion is an important task in positron emission tomography (PET). Bayesian methods based on the maximum a posteriori principle (also called penalized maximum likelihood methods) have been developed to deal with the low signal to noise ratio in the emission data. Similar to the filter cut-off frequency in the filtered backprojection method, the prior parameters in Bayesian reconstruction control the resolution and noise trade-off and hence affect detectability of lesions in reconstructed images. Bayesian reconstructions are difficult to analyze because the resolution and noise properties are nonlinear and object-dependent. Most research has been based on Monte Carlo simulations, which are very time consuming. Building on the recent progress on the theoretical analysis of image properties of statistical reconstructions and the development of numerical observers, here we develop a theoretical approach for fast computation of lesion detectability in Bayesian reconstruction. The results can be used to choose the optimum hyperparameter for the maximum lesion detectability. New in this work is the use of theoretical expressions that explicitly model the statistical variation of the lesion and background without assuming that the object variation is (locally) stationary. The theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. The comparisons show good agreement between the theoretical predications and the Monte Carlo results

Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

2017-11-27

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of lifespan monitoring data using Bayesian logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pozzi, M; Zonta, D; Glisic, B; Inaudi, D; Lau, J M; Fong, C C

2011-01-01

In this contribution, we use a Bayesian approach to analyze the data from a 19-storey building block, which is part of the Punggol EC26 construction project undertaken by the Singapore Housing and Development Board in the early 2000s. The building was instrumented during construction with interferometric fiber optic average strain sensors, embedded in ten of the first story columns during construction. The philosophy driving the design of the monitoring system was to instrument a representative number of structural elements, while maintaining the cost at a reasonable level. The analysis of the data, along with prior experience, allowed the engineer to recognize at early stage an ongoing differential settlement of one base column. We show how the whole cognitive process followed by the engineer can be reproduced using Bayesian logic. Particularly, we discuss to what extent the prior knowledge and potential evidence from inspection, can alter the perception of the building response based solely on instrumental data.

DATMAN: A reliability data analysis program using Bayesian updating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, M.; Feltus, M.A.

1996-01-01

Preventive maintenance (PM) techniques focus on the prevention of failures, in particular, system components that are important to plant functions. Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) improves on the PM techniques by introducing a set of guidelines by which to evaluate the system functions. It also minimizes intrusive maintenance, labor, and equipment downtime without sacrificing system performance when its function is essential for plant safety. Both the PM and RCM approaches require that system reliability data be updated as more component failures and operation time are acquired. Systems reliability and the likelihood of component failures can be calculated by Bayesian statistical methods, which can update these data. The DATMAN computer code has been developed at Penn State to simplify the Bayesian analysis by performing tedious calculations needed for RCM reliability analysis. DATMAN reads data for updating, fits a distribution that best fits the data, and calculates component reliability. DATMAN provides a user-friendly interface menu that allows the user to choose from several common prior and posterior distributions, insert new failure data, and visually select the distribution that matches the data most accurately

Application of Bayesian configural frequency analysis (BCFA) to determine characteristics user and non-user motor X

Science.gov (United States)

Mawardi, Muhamad Iqbal; Padmadisastra, Septiadi; Tantular, Bertho

2018-03-01

Configural Frequency Analysis is a method for cell-wise testing in contingency tables for exploratory search type and antitype, that can see the existence of discrepancy on the model by existence of a significant difference between the frequency of observation and frequency of expectation. This analysis focuses on whether or not the interaction among categories from different variables, and not the interaction among variables. One of the extensions of CFA method is Bayesian CFA, this alternative method pursue the same goal as frequentist version of CFA with the advantage that adjustment of the experiment-wise significance level α is not necessary and test whether groups of types and antitypes form composite types or composite antitypes. Hence, this research will present the concept of the Bayesian CFA and how it works for the real data. The data on this paper is based on case studies in a company about decrease Brand Awareness & Image motor X on Top Of Mind Unit indicator in Cirebon City for user 30.8% and non user 9.8%. From the result of B-CFA have four characteristics from deviation, one of the four characteristics above that is the configuration 2212 need more attention by company to determine promotion strategy to maintain and improve Top Of Mind Unit in Cirebon City.

Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

Science.gov (United States)

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

2018-03-01

Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

The integration of expert-defined importance factors to enrich Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darwish, Molham; Almouahed, Shaban; Lamotte, Florent de

2017-01-01

This paper proposes an analysis of a hybrid Bayesian-Importance model for system designers to improve the quality of services related to Active Assisted Living Systems. The proposed model is based on two factors: failure probability measure of different service components and, an expert defined degree of importance that each component holds for the success of the corresponding service. The proposed approach advocates the integration of expert-defined importance factors to enrich the Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach. The evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted using the Fault Tree Analysis formalism where the undesired state of a system is analyzed using Boolean logic mechanisms to combine a series of lower-level events.

Inference algorithms and learning theory for Bayesian sparse factor analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rattray, Magnus; Sharp, Kevin; Stegle, Oliver; Winn, John

2009-01-01

Bayesian sparse factor analysis has many applications; for example, it has been applied to the problem of inferring a sparse regulatory network from gene expression data. We describe a number of inference algorithms for Bayesian sparse factor analysis using a slab and spike mixture prior. These include well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms as well as a novel hybrid of VB and Expectation Propagation (EP). For the case of a single latent factor we derive a theory for learning performance using the replica method. We compare the MCMC and VB/EP algorithm results with simulated data to the theoretical prediction. The results for MCMC agree closely with the theory as expected. Results for VB/EP are slightly sub-optimal but show that the new algorithm is effective for sparse inference. In large-scale problems MCMC is infeasible due to computational limitations and the VB/EP algorithm then provides a very useful computationally efficient alternative.

Inference algorithms and learning theory for Bayesian sparse factor analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rattray, Magnus; Sharp, Kevin [School of Computer Science, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Stegle, Oliver [Max-Planck-Institute for Biological Cybernetics, Tuebingen (Germany); Winn, John, E-mail: magnus.rattray@manchester.ac.u [Microsoft Research Cambridge, Roger Needham Building, Cambridge, CB3 0FB (United Kingdom)

2009-12-01

Bayesian sparse factor analysis has many applications; for example, it has been applied to the problem of inferring a sparse regulatory network from gene expression data. We describe a number of inference algorithms for Bayesian sparse factor analysis using a slab and spike mixture prior. These include well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms as well as a novel hybrid of VB and Expectation Propagation (EP). For the case of a single latent factor we derive a theory for learning performance using the replica method. We compare the MCMC and VB/EP algorithm results with simulated data to the theoretical prediction. The results for MCMC agree closely with the theory as expected. Results for VB/EP are slightly sub-optimal but show that the new algorithm is effective for sparse inference. In large-scale problems MCMC is infeasible due to computational limitations and the VB/EP algorithm then provides a very useful computationally efficient alternative.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Mean field theory of EM algorithm for Bayesian grey scale image restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, Jun-ichi; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

2003-01-01

The EM algorithm for the Bayesian grey scale image restoration is investigated in the framework of the mean field theory. Our model system is identical to the infinite range random field Q-Ising model. The maximum marginal likelihood method is applied to the determination of hyper-parameters. We calculate both the data-averaged mean square error between the original image and its maximizer of posterior marginal estimate, and the data-averaged marginal likelihood function exactly. After evaluating the hyper-parameter dependence of the data-averaged marginal likelihood function, we derive the EM algorithm which updates the hyper-parameters to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate analytically. The time evolutions of the hyper-parameters and so-called Q function are obtained. The relation between the speed of convergence of the hyper-parameters and the shape of the Q function is explained from the viewpoint of dynamics

THz-SAR Vibrating Target Imaging via the Bayesian Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Deng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Target vibration bears important information for target recognition, and terahertz, due to significant micro-Doppler effects, has strong advantages for remotely sensing vibrations. In this paper, the imaging characteristics of vibrating targets with THz-SAR are at first analyzed. An improved algorithm based on an excellent Bayesian approach, that is, the expansion-compression variance-component (ExCoV method, has been proposed for reconstructing scattering coefficients of vibrating targets, which provides more robust and efficient initialization and overcomes the deficiencies of sidelobes as well as artifacts arising from the traditional correlation method. A real vibration measurement experiment of idle cars was performed to validate the range model. Simulated SAR data of vibrating targets and a tank model in a real background in 220 GHz show good performance at low SNR. Rapidly evolving high-power terahertz devices will offer viable THz-SAR application at a distance of several kilometers.

A Bayesian approach to PET reconstruction using image-modeling Gibbs priors: Implementation and comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, M.T.; Herman, G.T.; Levitan, E.

1996-01-01

We demonstrate that (i) classical methods of image reconstruction from projections can be improved upon by considering the output of such a method as a distorted version of the original image and applying a Bayesian approach to estimate from it the original image (based on a model of distortion and on a Gibbs distribution as the prior) and (ii) by selecting an open-quotes image-modelingclose quotes prior distribution (i.e., one which is such that it is likely that a random sample from it shares important characteristics of the images of the application area) one can improve over another Gibbs prior formulated using only pairwise interactions. We illustrate our approach using simulated Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data from realistic brain phantoms. Since algorithm performance ultimately depends on the diagnostic task being performed. we examine a number of different medically relevant figures of merit to give a fair comparison. Based on a training-and-testing evaluation strategy, we demonstrate that statistically significant improvements can be obtained using the proposed approach

Binary naive Bayesian classifiers for correlated Gaussian features: a theoretical analysis

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Van Dyk, E

2008-11-01

Full Text Available classifier with Gaussian features while using any quadratic decision boundary. Therefore, the analysis is not restricted to Naive Bayesian classifiers alone and can, for instance, be used to calculate the Bayes error performance. We compare the analytical...

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arunabha Majumdar

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy. For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package 'CPBayes' implementing the proposed method.

Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

Science.gov (United States)

Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

2004-12-01

Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Bayesian Reasoning in Data Analysis A Critical Introduction

CERN Document Server

D'Agostini, Giulio

2003-01-01

This book provides a multi-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning (as opposed to "conventional statistics") and its applications to data analysis. The basic ideas of this "new" approach to the quantification of uncertainty are presented using examples from research and everyday life. Applications covered include: parametric inference; combination of results; treatment of uncertainty due to systematic errors and background; comparison of hypotheses; unfolding of experimental distributions; upper/lower bounds in frontier-type measurements. Approximate methods for routine use are derived and ar

12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

Bayesian tomography and integrated data analysis in fusion diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dong; Dong, Y. B.; Deng, Wei; Shi, Z. B.; Fu, B. Z.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, T. B.; Zhou, Yan; Liu, Yi; Yang, Q. W.; Duan, X. R.

2016-11-01

In this article, a Bayesian tomography method using non-stationary Gaussian process for a prior has been introduced. The Bayesian formalism allows quantities which bear uncertainty to be expressed in the probabilistic form so that the uncertainty of a final solution can be fully resolved from the confidence interval of a posterior probability. Moreover, a consistency check of that solution can be performed by checking whether the misfits between predicted and measured data are reasonably within an assumed data error. In particular, the accuracy of reconstructions is significantly improved by using the non-stationary Gaussian process that can adapt to the varying smoothness of emission distribution. The implementation of this method to a soft X-ray diagnostics on HL-2A has been used to explore relevant physics in equilibrium and MHD instability modes. This project is carried out within a large size inference framework, aiming at an integrated analysis of heterogeneous diagnostics.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods

A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept

Science.gov (United States)

2016-02-01

ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-1 February 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology ...flood frequency hydrology concept as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to coherently combine and also evaluate the worth of different types...and development. INTRODUCTION: Merz and Blöschl (2008a,b) proposed the concept of flood frequency hydrology , which emphasizes the importance of

Sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks using a symbolic-numerical technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Enrique; Kjaerulff, Uffe

2003-01-01

The paper discusses the problem of sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks. The algebraic structure of the conditional means and variances, as rational functions involving linear and quadratic functions of the parameters, are used to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In particular the probabilities of conditional variables exceeding given values and related probabilities are analyzed. Two examples of application are used to illustrate all the concepts and methods

Dating ancient Chinese celadon porcelain by neutron activation analysis and bayesian classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Guoxi; Feng Songlin; Feng Xiangqian; Zhu Jihao; Yan Lingtong; Li Li

2009-01-01

Dating ancient Chinese porcelain is one of the most important and difficult problems in porcelain archaeological field. Eighteen elements in bodies of ancient celadon porcelains fired in Southern Song to Yuan period (AD 1127-1368) and Ming dynasty (AD 1368-1644), including La, Sm, U, Ce, etc., were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). After the outliers of experimental data were excluded and multivariate normal distribution was tested, and Bayesian classification was used for dating of 165 ancient celadon porcelain samples. The results show that 98.2% of total ancient celadon porcelain samples are classified correctly. It means that NAA and Bayesian classification are very useful for dating ancient porcelain. (authors)

bspmma: An R Package for Bayesian Semiparametric Models for Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deborah Burr

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We introduce an R package, bspmma, which implements a Dirichlet-based random effects model specific to meta-analysis. In meta-analysis, when combining effect estimates from several heterogeneous studies, it is common to use a random-effects model. The usual frequentist or Bayesian models specify a normal distribution for the true effects. However, in many situations, the effect distribution is not normal, e.g., it can have thick tails, be skewed, or be multi-modal. A Bayesian nonparametric model based on mixtures of Dirichlet process priors has been proposed in the literature, for the purpose of accommodating the non-normality. We review this model and then describe a competitor, a semiparametric version which has the feature that it allows for a well-defined centrality parameter convenient for determining whether the overall effect is significant. This second Bayesian model is based on a different version of the Dirichlet process prior, and we call it the "conditional Dirichlet model". The package contains functions to carry out analyses based on either the ordinary or the conditional Dirichlet model, functions for calculating certain Bayes factors that provide a check on the appropriateness of the conditional Dirichlet model, and functions that enable an empirical Bayes selection of the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process. We illustrate the use of the package on two examples, and give an interpretation of the results in these two different scenarios.

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jingjing; Cox, Dennis D; Lee, Jong Soo; Ren, Peng; Choi, Taeryon

2017-12-01

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected on discretized grids with measurement errors. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and instability in analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results to those obtainable by the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids when the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Bayesian Inference for Neural Electromagnetic Source Localization: Analysis of MEG Visual Evoked Activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, J.S.; Schmidt, D.M.; Wood, C.C.

1999-01-01

We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented

Driving Style Analysis Using Primitive Driving Patterns With Bayesian Nonparametric Approaches

OpenAIRE

Wang, Wenshuo; Xi, Junqiang; Zhao, Ding

2017-01-01

Analysis and recognition of driving styles are profoundly important to intelligent transportation and vehicle calibration. This paper presents a novel driving style analysis framework using the primitive driving patterns learned from naturalistic driving data. In order to achieve this, first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning method based on a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is introduced to extract primitive driving patterns from time series driving data without prior knowledge of the number...

A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Schotman (Peter); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

1991-01-01

textabstractWe propose a posterior odds analysis of the hypothesis of a unit root in real exchange rates. From a Bayesian viewpoint the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates is a posteriori as probable as a stationary AR(1) process for four out of eight time series investigated. The French

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian Integrated Data Analysis of Fast-Ion Measurements by Velocity-Space Tomography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salewski, M.; Nocente, M.; Jacobsen, A.S.

2018-01-01

Bayesian integrated data analysis combines measurements from different diagnostics to jointly measure plasma parameters of interest such as temperatures, densities, and drift velocities. Integrated data analysis of fast-ion measurements has long been hampered by the complexity of the strongly non...... framework. The implementation for different types of diagnostics as well as the uncertainties are discussed, and we highlight the importance of integrated data analysis of all available detectors....

TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA LIGHT-CURVE INFERENCE: HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IN THE NEAR-INFRARED

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandel, Kaisey S.; Friedman, Andrew S.; Kirshner, Robert P.; Wood-Vasey, W. Michael

2009-01-01

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of the properties of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves in the near-infrared using recent data from Peters Automated InfraRed Imaging TELescope and the literature. We construct a hierarchical Bayesian framework, incorporating several uncertainties including photometric error, peculiar velocities, dust extinction, and intrinsic variations, for principled and coherent statistical inference. SN Ia light-curve inferences are drawn from the global posterior probability of parameters describing both individual supernovae and the population conditioned on the entire SN Ia NIR data set. The logical structure of the hierarchical model is represented by a directed acyclic graph. Fully Bayesian analysis of the model and data is enabled by an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm exploiting the conditional probabilistic structure using Gibbs sampling. We apply this framework to the JHK s SN Ia light-curve data. A new light-curve model captures the observed J-band light-curve shape variations. The marginal intrinsic variances in peak absolute magnitudes are σ(M J ) = 0.17 ± 0.03, σ(M H ) = 0.11 ± 0.03, and σ(M Ks ) = 0.19 ± 0.04. We describe the first quantitative evidence for correlations between the NIR absolute magnitudes and J-band light-curve shapes, and demonstrate their utility for distance estimation. The average residual in the Hubble diagram for the training set SNe at cz > 2000kms -1 is 0.10 mag. The new application of bootstrap cross-validation to SN Ia light-curve inference tests the sensitivity of the statistical model fit to the finite sample and estimates the prediction error at 0.15 mag. These results demonstrate that SN Ia NIR light curves are as effective as corrected optical light curves, and, because they are less vulnerable to dust absorption, they have great potential as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

BURD, Bayesian estimation in data analysis of Probabilistic Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Seung-cheol; Park, Jin-Kyun

2008-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: BURD (Bayesian Update for Reliability Data) is a simple code that can be used to obtain a Bayesian estimate easily in the data analysis of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). According to the Bayes' theorem, basically, the code facilitates calculations of posterior distribution given the prior and the likelihood (evidence) distributions. The distinctive features of the program, BURD, are the following: - The input consists of the prior and likelihood functions that can be chosen from the built-in statistical distributions. - The available prior distributions are uniform, Jeffrey's non informative, beta, gamma, and log-normal that are most-frequently used in performing PSA. - For likelihood function, the user can choose from four statistical distributions, e.g., beta, gamma, binomial and poisson. - A simultaneous graphic display of the prior and posterior distributions facilitate an intuitive interpretation of the results. - Export facilities for the graphic display screen and text-type outputs are available. - Three options for treating zero-evidence data are provided. - Automatic setup of an integral calculus section for a Bayesian updating. 2 - Methods: The posterior distribution is estimated in accordance with the Bayes' theorem, given the prior and the likelihood (evidence) distributions. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The accuracy of the results depends on the calculational error of the statistical function library in MS Excel

Improved inference in Bayesian segmentation using Monte Carlo sampling: Application to hippocampal subfield volumetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

2013-01-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However...... in an Alzheimer’s disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative “error bars” on the volume estimates of individual structures....

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

Analysis of COSIMA spectra: Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. J. Lehto

2015-06-01

secondary ion mass spectrometer (TOF-SIMS spectra. The method is applied to the COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyzer (COSIMA TOF-SIMS mass spectra where the analysis can be broken into subgroups of lines close to integer mass values. The effects of the instrumental dead time are discussed in a new way. The method finds the joint probability density functions of measured line parameters (number of lines, and their widths, peak amplitudes, integrated amplitudes and positions. In the case of two or more lines, these distributions can take complex forms. The derived line parameters can be used to further calibrate the mass scaling of TOF-SIMS and to feed the results into other analysis methods such as multivariate analyses of spectra. We intend to use the method, first as a comprehensive tool to perform quantitative analysis of spectra, and second as a fast tool for studying interesting targets for obtaining additional TOF-SIMS measurements of the sample, a property unique to COSIMA. Finally, we point out that the Bayesian method can be thought of as a means to solve inverse problems but with forward calculations, only with no iterative corrections or other manipulation of the observed data.

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected

Monte Carlo Algorithms for a Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

Science.gov (United States)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; ODwyer, I. J.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K.; Knox, L.; Chu, M.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on the review of Bayesian approach to Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) analysis, numerical implementation with Gibbs sampling, a summary of application to WMAP I and work in progress with generalizations to polarization, foregrounds, asymmetric beams, and 1/f noise is given.

North American Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Imaged Using an Adaptive Bayesian Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Eilon, Z.; Fischer, K. M.; Dalton, C. A.

2017-12-01

We present a methodology for imaging upper mantle structure using a Bayesian approach that incorporates a novel combination of seismic data types and an adaptive parameterization based on piecewise discontinuous splines. Our inversion algorithm lays the groundwork for improved seismic velocity models of the lithosphere and asthenosphere by harnessing increased computing power alongside sophisticated data analysis, with the flexibility to include multiple datatypes with complementary resolution. Our new method has been designed to simultaneously fit P-s and S-p converted phases and Rayleigh wave phase velocities measured from ambient noise (periods 6-40 s) and earthquake sources (periods 30-170s). Careful processing of the body wave data isolates the signals from velocity gradients between the mid-crust and 250 km depth. We jointly invert the body and surface wave data to obtain detailed 1-D velocity models that include robustly imaged mantle discontinuities. Synthetic tests demonstrate that S-p phases are particularly important for resolving mantle structure, while surface waves capture absolute velocities with resolution better than 0.1 km/s. By treating data noise as an unknown parameter, and by generating posterior parameter distributions, model trade offs and uncertainties are fully captured by the inversion. We apply the method to stations across the northwest and north-central United States, finding that the imaged structure improves upon existing models by sharpening the vertical resolution of absolute velocity profiles and offering robust uncertainty estimates. In the tectonically active northwestern US, a strong velocity drop immediately beneath the Moho connotes thin (<70 km) lithosphere and a sharp lithosphere-asthenosphere transition; the asthenospheric velocity profile here matches observations at mid-ocean ridges. Within the Wyoming and Superior cratons, our models reveal mid-lithospheric velocity gradients indicative of thermochemical cratonic

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-02-01

To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan-uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts' estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial's primary outcome. A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03-45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2-1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial's result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT.

Superresolution radar imaging based on fast inverse-free sparse Bayesian learning for multiple measurement vectors

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xingyu; Tong, Ningning; Hu, Xiaowei

2018-01-01

Compressive sensing has been successfully applied to inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) imaging of moving targets. By exploiting the block sparse structure of the target image, sparse solution for multiple measurement vectors (MMV) can be applied in ISAR imaging and a substantial performance improvement can be achieved. As an effective sparse recovery method, sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for MMV involves a matrix inverse at each iteration. Its associated computational complexity grows significantly with the problem size. To address this problem, we develop a fast inverse-free (IF) SBL method for MMV. A relaxed evidence lower bound (ELBO), which is computationally more amiable than the traditional ELBO used by SBL, is obtained by invoking fundamental property for smooth functions. A variational expectation-maximization scheme is then employed to maximize the relaxed ELBO, and a computationally efficient IF-MSBL algorithm is proposed. Numerical results based on simulated and real data show that the proposed method can reconstruct row sparse signal accurately and obtain clear superresolution ISAR images. Moreover, the running time and computational complexity are reduced to a great extent compared with traditional SBL methods.

BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drummond Alexei J

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

Assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose by means of Bayesian ICA and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in small animal PET imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Berradja, Khadidja; Boughanmi, Nabil

2016-09-01

In dynamic cardiac PET FDG studies the assessment of myocardial metabolic rate of glucose (MMRG) requires the knowledge of the blood input function (IF). IF can be obtained by manual or automatic blood sampling and cross calibrated with PET. These procedures are cumbersome, invasive and generate uncertainties. The IF is contaminated by spillover of radioactivity from the adjacent myocardium and this could cause important error in the estimated MMRG. In this study, we show that the IF can be extracted from the images in a rat heart study with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) by means of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) based on Bayesian theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method (BICA). Images of the heart from rats were acquired with the Sherbrooke small animal PET scanner. A region of interest (ROI) was drawn around the rat image and decomposed into blood and tissue using BICA. The Statistical study showed that there is a significant difference (p corrupted with spillover.

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chernoded Andrey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen

2012-01-01

Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian anal...

An Adaptively Accelerated Bayesian Deblurring Method with Entropy Prior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-Hoon Kim

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The development of an efficient adaptively accelerated iterative deblurring algorithm based on Bayesian statistical concept has been reported. Entropy of an image has been used as a “prior” distribution and instead of additive form, used in conventional acceleration methods an exponent form of relaxation constant has been used for acceleration. Thus the proposed method is called hereafter as adaptively accelerated maximum a posteriori with entropy prior (AAMAPE. Based on empirical observations in different experiments, the exponent is computed adaptively using first-order derivatives of the deblurred image from previous two iterations. This exponent improves speed of the AAMAPE method in early stages and ensures stability at later stages of iteration. In AAMAPE method, we also consider the constraint of the nonnegativity and flux conservation. The paper discusses the fundamental idea of the Bayesian image deblurring with the use of entropy as prior, and the analytical analysis of superresolution and the noise amplification characteristics of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed AAMAPE method gives lower RMSE and higher SNR in 44% lesser iterations as compared to nonaccelerated maximum a posteriori with entropy prior (MAPE method. Moreover, AAMAPE followed by wavelet wiener filtering gives better result than the state-of-the-art methods.

Bayesian Multiscale Analysis of X-Ray Jet Features in High Redshift Quasars

Science.gov (United States)

McKeough, Kathryn; Siemiginowska, A.; Kashyap, V.; Stein, N.

2014-01-01

X-ray emission of powerful quasar jets may be a result of the inverse Compton (IC) process in which the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons gain energy by interactions with the jet’s relativistic electrons. However, there is no definite evidence that IC/CMB process is responsible for the observed X-ray emission of large scale jets. A step toward understanding the X-ray emission process is to study the Radio and X-ray morphologies of the jet. We implement a sophisticated Bayesian image analysis program, Low-count Image Reconstruction and Analysis (LIRA) (Esch et al. 2004; Conners & van Dyk 2007), to analyze jet features in 11 Chandra images of high redshift quasars (z ~ 2 - 4.8). Out of the 36 regions where knots are visible in the radio jets, nine showed detectable X-ray emission. We measured the ratios of the X-ray and radio luminosities of the detected features and found that they are consistent with the CMB radiation relationship. We derived a range of the bulk lorentz factor (Γ) for detected jet features under the CMB jet emission model. There is no discernible trend of Γ with redshift within the sample. The efficiency of the X-ray emission between the detected jet feature and the corresponding quasar also shows no correlation with redshift. This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and the Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no.1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution, and by NASA Contract NAS8-39073 to the Chandra X-ray Center (CXC). This research has made use of data obtained from the Chandra Data Archive and Chandra Source Catalog, and software provided by the CXC in the application packages CIAO, ChIPS, and Sherpa. We thank Teddy Cheung for providing the VLA radio images. Connors, A., & van Dyk, D. A. 2007, Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy IV, 371, 101 Esch, D. N., Connors, A., Karovska, M., & van Dyk, D. A. 2004, ApJ, 610, 1213

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Automated Bayesian Segmentation of Microvascular White-Matter Lesions in the ACCORD-MIND Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herskovits, E. H.; Bryan, R. N.; Yang, F.

2008-01-01

Purpose: Automatic brain-lesion segmentation has the potential to greatly expand the analysis of the relationships between brain function and lesion locations in large-scale epidemiologic studies, such as the ACCORD-MIND study. In this manuscript we describe the design and evaluation of a Bayesian lesion-segmentation method, with the expectation that our approach would segment white-matter brain lesions in MR images without user intervention. Materials and Methods: Each ACCORD-MIND subject has T1-weighted, T2-weighted, spin-density-weighted, and FLAIR sequences. The training portion of our algorithm first registers training images to a standard coordinate space; then, it collects statistics that capture signal-intensity information, and residual spatial variability of normal structures and lesions. The classification portion of our algorithm then uses these statistics to segment lesions in images from new subjects, without the need for user intervention. We evaluated this algorithm using 42 subjects with primarily white-matter lesions from the ACCORD-MIND project. Results: Our experiments demonstrated high classification accuracy, using an expert neuro radiologist as a standard. Conclusions: A Bayesian lesion-segmentation algorithm that collects multi-channel signal-intensity and spatial information from MR images of the brain shows potential for accurately segmenting brain lesions in images obtained from subjects not used in training. (authors)

Bayesian models and meta analysis for multiple tissue gene expression data following corticosteroid administration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelemen Arpad

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper addresses key biological problems and statistical issues in the analysis of large gene expression data sets that describe systemic temporal response cascades to therapeutic doses in multiple tissues such as liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney from the same animals. Affymetrix time course gene expression data U34A are obtained from three different tissues including kidney, liver and muscle. Our goal is not only to find the concordance of gene in different tissues, identify the common differentially expressed genes over time and also examine the reproducibility of the findings by integrating the results through meta analysis from multiple tissues in order to gain a significant increase in the power of detecting differentially expressed genes over time and to find the differential differences of three tissues responding to the drug. Results and conclusion Bayesian categorical model for estimating the proportion of the 'call' are used for pre-screening genes. Hierarchical Bayesian Mixture Model is further developed for the identifications of differentially expressed genes across time and dynamic clusters. Deviance information criterion is applied to determine the number of components for model comparisons and selections. Bayesian mixture model produces the gene-specific posterior probability of differential/non-differential expression and the 95% credible interval, which is the basis for our further Bayesian meta-inference. Meta-analysis is performed in order to identify commonly expressed genes from multiple tissues that may serve as ideal targets for novel treatment strategies and to integrate the results across separate studies. We have found the common expressed genes in the three tissues. However, the up/down/no regulations of these common genes are different at different time points. Moreover, the most differentially expressed genes were found in the liver, then in kidney, and then in muscle.

New PDE-based methods for image enhancement using SOM and Bayesian inference in various discretization schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karras, D A; Mertzios, G B

2009-01-01

A novel approach is presented in this paper for improving anisotropic diffusion PDE models, based on the Perona–Malik equation. A solution is proposed from an engineering perspective to adaptively estimate the parameters of the regularizing function in this equation. The goal of such a new adaptive diffusion scheme is to better preserve edges when the anisotropic diffusion PDE models are applied to image enhancement tasks. The proposed adaptive parameter estimation in the anisotropic diffusion PDE model involves self-organizing maps and Bayesian inference to define edge probabilities accurately. The proposed modifications attempt to capture not only simple edges but also difficult textural edges and incorporate their probability in the anisotropic diffusion model. In the context of the application of PDE models to image processing such adaptive schemes are closely related to the discrete image representation problem and the investigation of more suitable discretization algorithms using constraints derived from image processing theory. The proposed adaptive anisotropic diffusion model illustrates these concepts when it is numerically approximated by various discretization schemes in a database of magnetic resonance images (MRI), where it is shown to be efficient in image filtering and restoration applications

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

A Bayesian multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of revealed choice data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

DeSarbo, WS; Kim, Y; Fong, D

1999-01-01

We present a new Bayesian formulation of a vector multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of binary choice data. The Gibbs sampler is gainfully employed to estimate the posterior distribution of the specified scalar products, bilinear model parameters. The computational procedure

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Optimizing Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA) using Bayesian Experimental Design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toussaint, Udo von; Schwarz-Selinger, Thomas; Gori, Silvio

2008-01-01

Nuclear Reaction Analysis with 3 He holds the promise to measure Deuterium depth profiles up to large depths. However, the extraction of the depth profile from the measured data is an ill-posed inversion problem. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Experimental Design can be used to optimize the number of measurements as well as the measurement energies to maximize the information gain. Comparison of the inversion properties of the optimized design with standard settings reveals huge possible gains. Application of the posterior sampling method allows to optimize the experimental settings interactively during the measurement process.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

Unavailability analysis of a PWR safety system by a Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estevao, Lilian B.; Melo, Paulo Fernando F. Frutuoso e; Rivero, Jose J.

2013-01-01

Bayesian networks (BN) are directed acyclic graphs that have dependencies between variables, which are represented by nodes. These dependencies are represented by lines connecting the nodes and can be directed or not. Thus, it is possible to model conditional probabilities and calculate them with the help of Bayes' Theorem. The objective of this paper is to present the modeling of the failure of a safety system of a typical second generation light water reactor plant, the Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS), whose function is to cool the water of containment reservoir being recirculated through the Containment Spray Recirculation System (CSRS). CSRS is automatically initiated after a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and together with the CHRS cools the reservoir water. The choice of this system was due to the fact that its analysis by a fault tree is available in Appendix II of the Reactor Safety Study Report (WASH-1400), and therefore all the necessary technical information is also available, such as system diagrams, failure data input and the fault tree itself that was developed to study system failure. The reason for the use of a bayesian network in this context was to assess its ability to reproduce the results of fault tree analyses and also verify the feasibility of treating dependent events. Comparing the fault trees and bayesian networks, the results obtained for the system failure were very close. (author)

Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

2012-05-01

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

Bayesian nonparametric dictionary learning for compressed sensing MRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yue; Paisley, John; Lin, Qin; Ding, Xinghao; Fu, Xueyang; Zhang, Xiao-Ping

2014-12-01

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model for reconstructing magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from highly undersampled k -space data. We perform dictionary learning as part of the image reconstruction process. To this end, we use the beta process as a nonparametric dictionary learning prior for representing an image patch as a sparse combination of dictionary elements. The size of the dictionary and patch-specific sparsity pattern are inferred from the data, in addition to other dictionary learning variables. Dictionary learning is performed directly on the compressed image, and so is tailored to the MRI being considered. In addition, we investigate a total variation penalty term in combination with the dictionary learning model, and show how the denoising property of dictionary learning removes dependence on regularization parameters in the noisy setting. We derive a stochastic optimization algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo for the Bayesian model, and use the alternating direction method of multipliers for efficiently performing total variation minimization. We present empirical results on several MRI, which show that the proposed regularization framework can improve reconstruction accuracy over other methods.

A Pareto scale-inflated outlier model and its Bayesian analysis

OpenAIRE

Scollnik, David P. M.

2016-01-01

This paper develops a Pareto scale-inflated outlier model. This model is intended for use when data from some standard Pareto distribution of interest is suspected to have been contaminated with a relatively small number of outliers from a Pareto distribution with the same shape parameter but with an inflated scale parameter. The Bayesian analysis of this Pareto scale-inflated outlier model is considered and its implementation using the Gibbs sampler is discussed. The paper contains three wor...

Bayesian object classification of gold nanoparticles

KAUST Repository

Konomi, Bledar A.

2013-06-01

The properties of materials synthesized with nanoparticles (NPs) are highly correlated to the sizes and shapes of the nanoparticles. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging technique can be used to measure the morphological characteristics of NPs, which can be simple circles or more complex irregular polygons with varying degrees of scales and sizes. A major difficulty in analyzing the TEM images is the overlapping of objects, having different morphological properties with no specific information about the number of objects present. Furthermore, the objects lying along the boundary render automated image analysis much more difficult. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian method based on the marked-point process representation of the objects. We derive models, both for the marks which parameterize the morphological aspects and the points which determine the location of the objects. The proposed model is an automatic image segmentation and classification procedure, which simultaneously detects the boundaries and classifies the NPs into one of the predetermined shape families. We execute the inference by sampling the posterior distribution using Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) since the posterior is doubly intractable. We apply our novel method to several TEM imaging samples of gold NPs, producing the needed statistical characterization of their morphology. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

Bayesian object classification of gold nanoparticles

KAUST Repository

Konomi, Bledar A.; Dhavala, Soma S.; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Kundu, Subrata; Huitink, David; Liang, Hong; Ding, Yu; Mallick, Bani K.

2013-01-01

The properties of materials synthesized with nanoparticles (NPs) are highly correlated to the sizes and shapes of the nanoparticles. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging technique can be used to measure the morphological characteristics of NPs, which can be simple circles or more complex irregular polygons with varying degrees of scales and sizes. A major difficulty in analyzing the TEM images is the overlapping of objects, having different morphological properties with no specific information about the number of objects present. Furthermore, the objects lying along the boundary render automated image analysis much more difficult. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian method based on the marked-point process representation of the objects. We derive models, both for the marks which parameterize the morphological aspects and the points which determine the location of the objects. The proposed model is an automatic image segmentation and classification procedure, which simultaneously detects the boundaries and classifies the NPs into one of the predetermined shape families. We execute the inference by sampling the posterior distribution using Markov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) since the posterior is doubly intractable. We apply our novel method to several TEM imaging samples of gold NPs, producing the needed statistical characterization of their morphology. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

2016-01-01

Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvalho, Pedro, E-mail: pedrocarv@coc.ufrj.br [Computational Modelling in Engineering and Geophysics Laboratory (LAMEMO), Department of Civil Engineering, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Pedro Calmon - Ilha do Fundão, 21941-596 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Marques, Rui Cunha, E-mail: pedro.c.carvalho@tecnico.ulisboa.pt [Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-01-01

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

CONSTRAINTS ON COSMIC-RAY PROPAGATION MODELS FROM A GLOBAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trotta, R.; Johannesson, G.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Porter, T. A.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Strong, A. W.

2011-01-01

Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e.g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, γ-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, γ-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

A discrete-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

2005-01-01

Dependability tools are becoming an indispensable tool for modeling and analyzing (critical) systems. However the growing complexity of such systems calls for increasing sophistication of these tools. Dependability tools need to not only capture the complex dynamic behavior of the system components, but they must be also easy to use, intuitive, and computationally efficient. In general, current tools have a number of shortcomings including lack of modeling power, incapacity to efficiently handle general component failure distributions, and ineffectiveness in solving large models that exhibit complex dependencies between their components. We propose a novel reliability modeling and analysis framework based on the Bayesian network (BN) formalism. The overall approach is to investigate timed Bayesian networks and to find a suitable reliability framework for dynamic systems. We have applied our methodology to two example systems and preliminary results are promising. We have defined a discrete-time BN reliability formalism and demonstrated its capabilities from a modeling and analysis point of view. This research shows that a BN based reliability formalism is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, being based on the BN formalism, the framework is easy to use and intuitive for non-experts, and provides a basis for more advanced and useful analyses such as system diagnosis

Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

Optimization of Bayesian Emission tomographic reconstruction for region of interest quantitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, Jinyi

2003-01-01

Region of interest (ROI) quantitation is an important task in emission tomography (e.g., positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography). It is essential for exploring clinical factors such as tumor activity, growth rate, and the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. Bayesian methods based on the maximum a posteriori principle (or called penalized maximum likelihood methods) have been developed for emission image reconstructions to deal with the low signal to noise ratio of the emission data. Similar to the filter cut-off frequency in the filtered backprojection method, the smoothing parameter of the image prior in Bayesian reconstruction controls the resolution and noise trade-off and hence affects ROI quantitation. In this paper we present an approach for choosing the optimum smoothing parameter in Bayesian reconstruction for ROI quantitation. Bayesian reconstructions are difficult to analyze because the resolution and noise properties are nonlinear and object-dependent. Building on the recent progress on deriving the approximate expressions for the local impulse response function and the covariance matrix, we derived simplied theoretical expressions for the bias, the variance, and the ensemble mean squared error (EMSE) of the ROI quantitation. One problem in evaluating ROI quantitation is that the truth is often required for calculating the bias. This is overcome by using ensemble distribution of the activity inside the ROI and computing the average EMSE. The resulting expressions allow fast evaluation of the image quality for different smoothing parameters. The optimum smoothing parameter of the image prior can then be selected to minimize the EMSE

Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

2004-01-01

Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses

Bayesian analysis of ion beam diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toussaint, U. von; Fischer, R.; Dose, V.

2001-01-01

Ion beam diagnostics are routinely used for quantitative analysis of the surface composition of mixture materials up to a depth of a few μm. Unfortunately, advantageous properties of the diagnostics, like high depth resolution in combination with a large penetration depth, no destruction of the surface, high sensitivity for large as well as for small atomic numbers, and high sensitivity are mutually exclusive. Among other things, this is due to the ill-conditioned inverse problem of reconstructing depth distributions of the composition elements. Robust results for depth distributions are obtained with adaptive methods in the framework of Bayesian probability theory. The method of adaptive kernels allows for distributions which contain only the significant information of the data while noise fitting is avoided. This is achieved by adaptively reducing the degrees of freedom supporting the distribution. As applications for ion beam diagnostics Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy and particle induced X-ray emission are shown

Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

2016-02-15

This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Simultaneous versus sequential pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic population analysis using an iterative two-stage Bayesian technique

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Proost, Johannes H.; Schiere, Sjouke; Eleveld, Douglas J.; Wierda, J. Mark K. H.

A method for simultaneous pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) population analysis using an Iterative Two-Stage Bayesian (ITSB) algorithm was developed. The method was evaluated using clinical data and Monte Carlo simulations. Data from a clinical study with rocuronium in nine anesthetized

Introduction to statistical methods in signal and image processing

OpenAIRE

Forbes , Florence

2016-01-01

Doctoral; This is a 3 part lecture starting with basics on Bayesian analysis in particular for image and signal analysis applications. The last part is devoted to an introduction to variational approximations.

A NOVEL TECHNIQUE TO IMPROVE PHOTOMETRY IN CONFUSED IMAGES USING GRAPHS AND BAYESIAN PRIORS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; Ferguson, Henry C.; Lu, Yu; Inami, Hanae; Somerville, Rachel S.

2015-01-01

We present a new technique for overcoming confusion noise in deep far-infrared Herschel space telescope images making use of prior information from shorter λ < 2 μm wavelengths. For the deepest images obtained by Herschel, the flux limit due to source confusion is about a factor of three brighter than the flux limit due to instrumental noise and (smooth) sky background. We have investigated the possibility of de-confusing simulated Herschel PACS 160 μm images by using strong Bayesian priors on the positions and weak priors on the flux of sources. We find the blended sources and group them together and simultaneously fit their fluxes. We derive the posterior probability distribution function of fluxes subject to these priors through Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling by fitting the image. Assuming we can predict the FIR flux of sources based on the ultraviolet-optical part of their SEDs to within an order of magnitude, the simulations show that we can obtain reliable fluxes and uncertainties at least a factor of three fainter than the confusion noise limit of 3σ c = 2.7 mJy in our simulated PACS-160 image. This technique could in principle be used to mitigate the effects of source confusion in any situation where one has prior information of positions and plausible fluxes of blended sources. For Herschel, application of this technique will improve our ability to constrain the dust content in normal galaxies at high redshift

A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Ireland; Bryan McKinnon; Dan Protopopescu; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; H. Bagdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Barry Berman; Angela Biselli; Lukasz Blaszczyk; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Liam Casey; Shifeng Chen; Lu Cheng; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; Natalya Dashyan; Rita De Masi; Raffaella De Vita; Enzo De Sanctis; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Lamiaa Elfassi; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Ahmed Fradi; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Nerses Gevorgyan; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Wesley Gohn; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Hayk Hakobyan; Charles Hanretty; Neil Hassall; F. Hersman; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Yordanka Ilieva; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; D. Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; John Johnstone; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; Wooyoung Kim; Andreas Klein; Franz Klein; Mikhail Kossov; Zebulun Krahn; Laird Kramer; Valery Kubarovsky; Joachim Kuhn; Sergey Kuleshov; Viacheslav Kuznetsov; Jeff Lachniet; Jean Laget; Jorn Langheinrich; D. Lawrence; Kenneth Livingston; Haiyun Lu; Marion MacCormick; Nikolai Markov; Paul Mattione; Bernhard Mecking; Mac Mestayer; Curtis Meyer; Tsutomu Mibe; Konstantin Mikhaylov; Marco Mirazita; Rory Miskimen; Viktor Mokeev; Brahim Moreno; Kei Moriya; Steven Morrow; Maryam Moteabbed; Edwin Munevar Espitia; Gordon Mutchler; Pawel Nadel-Turonski; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Silvia Niccolai; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Bogdan Niczyporuk; Megh Niroula; Rustam Niyazov; Mina Nozar; Mikhail Osipenko; Alexander Ostrovidov; Kijun Park; Evgueni Pasyuk; Craig Paterson; Sergio Pereira; Joshua Pierce; Nikolay Pivnyuk; Oleg Pogorelko; Sergey Pozdnyakov; John Price; Sebastien Procureur; Yelena Prok; Brian Raue; Giovanni Ricco; Marco Ripani; Barry Ritchie; Federico Ronchetti; Guenther Rosner; Patrizia Rossi; Franck Sabatie; Julian Salamanca; Carlos Salgado; Joseph Santoro; Vladimir Sapunenko; Reinhard Schumacher; Vladimir Serov; Youri Sharabian; Dmitri Sharov; Nikolay Shvedunov; Elton Smith; Lee Smith; Daniel Sober; Daria Sokhan; Aleksey Stavinskiy; Samuel Stepanyan; Stepan Stepanyan; Burnham Stokes; Paul Stoler; Steffen Strauch; Mauro Taiuti; David Tedeschi; Ulrike Thoma; Avtandil Tkabladze; Svyatoslav Tkachenko; Clarisse Tur; Maurizio Ungaro; Michael Vineyard; Alexander Vlassov; Daniel Watts; Lawrence Weinstein; Dennis Weygand; M. Williams; Elliott Wolin; M.H. Wood; Amrit Yegneswaran; Lorenzo Zana; Jixie Zhang; Bo Zhao; Zhiwen Zhao

2008-02-01

We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a $\\Theta^{+}$ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a $\\Theta^{+}$. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner.

A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David Ireland; Bryan McKinnon; Dan Protopopescu; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; H. Bagdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Barry Berman; Angela Biselli; Lukasz Blaszczyk; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Liam Casey; Shifeng Chen; Lu Cheng; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; Natalya Dashyan; Rita De Masi; Raffaella De Vita; Enzo De Sanctis; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Lamiaa Elfassi; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Ahmed Fradi; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Nerses Gevorgyan; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Wesley Gohn; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Hayk Hakobyan; Charles Hanretty; Neil Hassall; F. Hersman; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Yordanka Ilieva; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; D. Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; John Johnstone; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; et al

2007-01-01

We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a Θ + pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a Θ + . Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

 Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian network analysis revealed the connectivity difference of the default mode network from the resting-state to task-state

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xia; Yu, Xinyu; Yao, Li; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have converged to reveal the default mode network (DMN), a constellation of regions that display co-activation during resting-state but co-deactivation during attention-demanding tasks in the brain. Here, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) analysis method to construct a directed effective connectivity model of the DMN and compared the organizational architecture and interregional directed connections under both resting-state and task-state. The analysis results indicated that the DMN was consistently organized into two closely interacting subsystems in both resting-state and task-state. The directed connections between DMN regions, however, changed significantly from the resting-state to task-state condition. The results suggest that the DMN intrinsically maintains a relatively stable structure whether at rest or performing tasks but has different information processing mechanisms under varied states. PMID:25309414

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

2016-01-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

Bayesian conformational analysis of ring molecules through reversible jump MCMC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nolsøe, Kim; Kessler, Mathieu; Pérez, José

2005-01-01

In this paper we address the problem of classifying the conformations of mmembered rings using experimental observations obtained by crystal structure analysis. We formulate a model for the data generation mechanism that consists in a multidimensional mixture model. We perform inference for the p...... for the proportions and the components in a Bayesian framework, implementing an MCMC Reversible Jumps Algorithm to obtain samples of the posterior distributions. The method is illustrated on a simulated data set and on real data corresponding to cyclo-octane structures....

BayesLCA: An R Package for Bayesian Latent Class Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arthur White

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The BayesLCA package for R provides tools for performing latent class analysis within a Bayesian setting. Three methods for fitting the model are provided, incorporating an expectation-maximization algorithm, Gibbs sampling and a variational Bayes approximation. The article briefly outlines the methodology behind each of these techniques and discusses some of the technical difficulties associated with them. Methods to remedy these problems are also described. Visualization methods for each of these techniques are included, as well as criteria to aid model selection.

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

2013-03-01

A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Hyun

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Performance of an iterative two-stage bayesian technique for population pharmacokinetic analysis of rich data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Proost, Johannes H.; Eleveld, Douglas J.

2006-01-01

Purpose. To test the suitability of an Iterative Two-Stage Bayesian (ITSB) technique for population pharmacokinetic analysis of rich data sets, and to compare ITSB with Standard Two-Stage (STS) analysis and nonlinear Mixed Effect Modeling (MEM). Materials and Methods. Data from a clinical study with

Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

Complexity analysis of accelerated MCMC methods for Bayesian inversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoang, Viet Ha; Schwab, Christoph; Stuart, Andrew M

2013-01-01

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which the posterior probability distribution on an unknown field is sampled for the purposes of computing posterior expectations of quantities of interest, is starting to become computationally feasible for partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems. Balancing the sources of error arising from finite-dimensional approximation of the unknown field, the PDE forward solution map and the sampling of the probability space under the posterior distribution are essential for the design of efficient computational Bayesian methods for PDE inverse problems. We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with an unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the Bayesian posterior distribution, given data δ. Particular attention is given to bounds on the overall work required to achieve a prescribed error level ε. Specifically, we first bound the computational complexity of ‘plain’ MCMC, based on combining MCMC sampling with linear complexity multi-level solvers for elliptic PDE. Our (new) work versus accuracy bounds show that the complexity of this approach can be quite prohibitive. Two strategies for reducing the computational complexity are then proposed and analyzed: first, a sparse, parametric and deterministic generalized polynomial chaos (gpc) ‘surrogate’ representation of the forward response map of the PDE over the entire parameter space, and, second, a novel multi-level Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy which utilizes sampling from a multi-level discretization of the posterior and the forward PDE. For both of these strategies, we derive asymptotic bounds on work versus accuracy, and hence asymptotic bounds on the computational complexity of the algorithms. In particular, we provide sufficient conditions on the regularity of the unknown coefficients of the PDE and on the

Tractography-Based Score for Learning Effective Connectivity From Multimodal Imaging Data Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

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Dang, Shilpa; Chaudhury, Santanu; Lall, Brejesh; Roy, Prasun K

2018-05-01

Effective connectivity (EC) is the methodology for determining functional-integration among the functionally active segregated regions of the brain. By definition EC is "the causal influence exerted by one neuronal group on another" which is constrained by anatomical connectivity (AC) (axonal connections). AC is necessary for EC but does not fully determine it, because synaptic communication occurs dynamically in a context-dependent fashion. Although there is a vast emerging evidence of structure-function relationship using multimodal imaging studies, till date only a few studies have done joint modeling of the two modalities: functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We aim to propose a unified probabilistic framework that combines information from both sources to learn EC using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). DBNs are probabilistic graphical temporal models that learn EC in an exploratory fashion. Specifically, we propose a novel anatomically informed (AI) score that evaluates fitness of a given connectivity structure to both DTI and fMRI data simultaneously. The AI score is employed in structure learning of DBN given the data. Experiments with synthetic-data demonstrate the face validity of structure learning with our AI score over anatomically uninformed counterpart. Moreover, real-data results are cross-validated by performing classification-experiments. EC inferred on real fMRI-DTI datasets is found to be consistent with previous literature and show promising results in light of the AC present as compared to other classically used techniques such as Granger-causality. Multimodal analyses provide a more reliable basis for differentiating brain under abnormal/diseased conditions than the single modality analysis.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

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Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

A Bayesian approach to real-time 3D tumor localization via monoscopic x-ray imaging during treatment delivery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Ruijiang; Fahimian, Benjamin P.; Xing, Lei

2011-01-01

Purpose: Monoscopic x-ray imaging with on-board kV devices is an attractive approach for real-time image guidance in modern radiation therapy such as VMAT or IMRT, but it falls short in providing reliable information along the direction of imaging x-ray. By effectively taking consideration of projection data at prior times and/or angles through a Bayesian formalism, the authors develop an algorithm for real-time and full 3D tumor localization with a single x-ray imager during treatment delivery. Methods: First, a prior probability density function is constructed using the 2D tumor locations on the projection images acquired during patient setup. Whenever an x-ray image is acquired during the treatment delivery, the corresponding 2D tumor location on the imager is used to update the likelihood function. The unresolved third dimension is obtained by maximizing the posterior probability distribution. The algorithm can also be used in a retrospective fashion when all the projection images during the treatment delivery are used for 3D localization purposes. The algorithm does not involve complex optimization of any model parameter and therefore can be used in a ''plug-and-play'' fashion. The authors validated the algorithm using (1) simulated 3D linear and elliptic motion and (2) 3D tumor motion trajectories of a lung and a pancreas patient reproduced by a physical phantom. Continuous kV images were acquired over a full gantry rotation with the Varian TrueBeam on-board imaging system. Three scenarios were considered: fluoroscopic setup, cone beam CT setup, and retrospective analysis. Results: For the simulation study, the RMS 3D localization error is 1.2 and 2.4 mm for the linear and elliptic motions, respectively. For the phantom experiments, the 3D localization error is < 1 mm on average and < 1.5 mm at 95th percentile in the lung and pancreas cases for all three scenarios. The difference in 3D localization error for different scenarios is small and is not

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

Bayesian Analysis of two Censored Shifted Gompertz Mixture Distributions using Informative and Noninformative Priors

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Tabassum Naz Sindhu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study deals with Bayesian analysis of shifted Gompertz mixture model under type-I censored samples assuming both informative and noninformative priors. We have discussed the Bayesian estimation of parameters of shifted Gompertz mixture model under the uniform, and gamma priors assuming three loss functions. Further, some properties of the model with some graphs of the mixture density are discussed. These properties include Bayes estimators, posterior risks and reliability function under simulation scheme. Bayes estimates are obtained considering two cases: (a when the shape parameter is known and (b when all parameters are unknown. We analyzed some simulated sets in order to investigate the effect of prior belief, loss functions, and performance of the proposed set of estimators of the mixture model parameters.

First- and Second-level Bayesian Inference of Flow Resistivity of Sound Absorber and Room’s Influence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Choi, Sang-Hyeon; Lee, Ikjin; Jeong, Cheol-Ho

2016-01-01

Sabine absorption coefficient is a widely used one deduced from reverberation time measurements via the Sabine equation. First- and second-level Bayesian analysis are used to estimate the flow resistivity of a sound absorber and the influences of the test chambers from Sabine absorption...... coefficients measured in 13 different reverberation chambers. The first-level Bayesian analysis is more general than the second-level Bayesian analysis. Sharper posterior distribution can be acquired by the second-level Bayesian analysis than the one by the first-level Bayesian analysis because more data...... are used to set more reliable prior distribution. The estimated room’s influences by the first- and the second-level Bayesian analyses are similar to the estimated results by the mean absolute error minimization....

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does no...

A Bayesian Spatial Model to Predict Disease Status Using Imaging Data From Various Modalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenqiong Xue

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Relating disease status to imaging data stands to increase the clinical significance of neuroimaging studies. Many neurological and psychiatric disorders involve complex, systems-level alterations that manifest in functional and structural properties of the brain and possibly other clinical and biologic measures. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict disease status, which is able to incorporate information from both functional and structural brain imaging scans. We consider a two-stage whole brain parcellation, partitioning the brain into 282 subregions, and our model accounts for correlations between voxels from different brain regions defined by the parcellations. Our approach models the imaging data and uses posterior predictive probabilities to perform prediction. The estimates of our model parameters are based on samples drawn from the joint posterior distribution using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods. We evaluate our method by examining the prediction accuracy rates based on leave-one-out cross validation, and we employ an importance sampling strategy to reduce the computation time. We conduct both whole-brain and voxel-level prediction and identify the brain regions that are highly associated with the disease based on the voxel-level prediction results. We apply our model to multimodal brain imaging data from a study of Parkinson's disease. We achieve extremely high accuracy, in general, and our model identifies key regions contributing to accurate prediction including caudate, putamen, and fusiform gyrus as well as several sensory system regions.

Bayesian analysis of longitudinal Johne's disease diagnostic data without a gold standard test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, C.; Turnbull, B.W.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2011-01-01

the posterior estimates of the model parameters that provide the basis for inference concerning the accuracy of the diagnostic procedure. Based on the Bayesian approach, the posterior probability distribution of the change-point onset time can be obtained and used as a criterion for infection diagnosis......-point process with a Weibull survival hazard function was used to model the progression of the hidden disease status. The model adjusted for the fixed effects of covariate variables and random effects of subject on the diagnostic testing procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to compute....... An application is presented to an analysis of ELISA and fecal culture test outcomes in the diagnostic testing of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) for a Danish longitudinal study from January 2000 to March 2003. The posterior probability criterion based on the Bayesian model with 4 repeated observations has...

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

Analysis of neutron reflectivity data: maximum entropy, Bayesian spectral analysis and speckle holography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sivia, D.S.; Hamilton, W.A.; Smith, G.S.

1991-01-01

The analysis of neutron reflectivity data to obtain nuclear scattering length density profiles is akin to the notorious phaseless Fourier problem, well known in many fields such as crystallography. Current methods of analysis culminate in the refinement of a few parameters of a functional model, and are often preceded by a long and laborious process of trial and error. We start by discussing the use of maximum entropy for obtained 'free-form' solutions of the density profile, as an alternative to the trial and error phase when a functional model is not available. Next we consider a Bayesian spectral analysis approach, which is appropriate for optimising the parameters of a simple (but adequate) type of model when the number of parameters is not known. Finally, we suggest a novel experimental procedure, the analogue of astronomical speckle holography, designed to alleviate the ambiguity problems inherent in traditional reflectivity measurements. (orig.)

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

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Villemereuil Pierre de

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

Probabilistic Safety Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Lines Using Bayesian Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grande Andrade, Z.; Castillo Ron, E.; O' Connor, A.; Nogal, M.

2016-07-01

A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of railway lines. The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line, such as light and speed limit signals, tunnel or viaduct entries or exits, cuttings and embankments, acoustic sounds received in the cabin, curves, switches, etc. In addition, since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation, the automatic train protection (ATP) systems and the driver behavior and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors. The nodes of the Bayesian network, their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given. The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas, which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis. A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained, which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially. The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines. (Author)

Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

2018-06-01

Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

Bayesian analysis of log Gaussian Cox processes for disease mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benes, Viktor; Bodlák, Karel; Møller, Jesper

We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis, and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence...... of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common area level approaches we consider a Bayesian analysis for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using markov chain Monte Carlo methods...

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Asimit, Jennifer L; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Wheeler, Eleanor; Berndt, Sonja I; Cordell, Heather J; Morris, Andrew P; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Barroso, Inês

2015-12-01

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

Bayesian analysis of factors associated with fibromyalgia syndrome subjects

Science.gov (United States)

Jayawardana, Veroni; Mondal, Sumona; Russek, Leslie

2015-01-01

Factors contributing to movement-related fear were assessed by Russek, et al. 2014 for subjects with Fibromyalgia (FM) based on the collected data by a national internet survey of community-based individuals. The study focused on the variables, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen (PC-PTSD), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), a Joint Hypermobility Syndrome screen (JHS), Vertigo Symptom Scale (VSS-SF), Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder (OCPD), Pain, work status and physical activity dependent from the "Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire" (FIQR). The study presented in this paper revisits same data with a Bayesian analysis where appropriate priors were introduced for variables selected in the Russek's paper.

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

2006-01-01

Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Biased Beliefs and Distributional Other-Regarding Preferences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeroen Weesie

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between an actor’s beliefs about others’ other-regarding (social preferences and her own other-regarding preferences, using an “avant-garde” hierarchical Bayesian method. We estimate two distributional other-regarding preference parameters, α and β, of actors using incentivized choice data in binary Dictator Games. Simultaneously, we estimate the distribution of actors’ beliefs about others α and β, conditional on actors’ own α and β, with incentivized belief elicitation. We demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian method compared to it’s hierarchical frequentist counterparts. Results show a positive association between an actor’s own (α; β and her beliefs about average(α; β in the population. The association between own preferences and the variance in beliefs about others’ preferences in the population, however, is curvilinear for α and insignificant for β. These results are partially consistent with the cone effect [1,2] which is described in detail below. Because in the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept, beliefs and own preferences are assumed to be independent, these results cast doubt on the application of the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept to experimental data.

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hero Alfred

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP, the Indian Buffet Process (IBP, and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB analysis. Results Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD, closely related non-Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data.

Bayesian inference of the number of factors in gene-expression analysis: application to human virus challenge studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Bo; Chen, Minhua; Paisley, John; Zaas, Aimee; Woods, Christopher; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Hero, Alfred; Lucas, Joseph; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2010-11-09

Nonparametric Bayesian techniques have been developed recently to extend the sophistication of factor models, allowing one to infer the number of appropriate factors from the observed data. We consider such techniques for sparse factor analysis, with application to gene-expression data from three virus challenge studies. Particular attention is placed on employing the Beta Process (BP), the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), and related sparseness-promoting techniques to infer a proper number of factors. The posterior density function on the model parameters is computed using Gibbs sampling and variational Bayesian (VB) analysis. Time-evolving gene-expression data are considered for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Rhino virus, and influenza, using blood samples from healthy human subjects. These data were acquired in three challenge studies, each executed after receiving institutional review board (IRB) approval from Duke University. Comparisons are made between several alternative means of per-forming nonparametric factor analysis on these data, with comparisons as well to sparse-PCA and Penalized Matrix Decomposition (PMD), closely related non-Bayesian approaches. Applying the Beta Process to the factor scores, or to the singular values of a pseudo-SVD construction, the proposed algorithms infer the number of factors in gene-expression data. For real data the "true" number of factors is unknown; in our simulations we consider a range of noise variances, and the proposed Bayesian models inferred the number of factors accurately relative to other methods in the literature, such as sparse-PCA and PMD. We have also identified a "pan-viral" factor of importance for each of the three viruses considered in this study. We have identified a set of genes associated with this pan-viral factor, of interest for early detection of such viruses based upon the host response, as quantified via gene-expression data.

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

Experiences in applying Bayesian integrative models in interdisciplinary modeling: the computational and human challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuikka, Sakari; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Helle, Inari

2011-01-01

We review the experience obtained in using integrative Bayesian models in interdisciplinary analysis focusing on sustainable use of marine resources and environmental management tasks. We have applied Bayesian models to both fisheries and environmental risk analysis problems. Bayesian belief...... be time consuming and research projects can be difficult to manage due to unpredictable technical problems related to parameter estimation. Biology, sociology and environmental economics have their own scientific traditions. Bayesian models are becoming traditional tools in fisheries biology, where...

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

A New Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Presence of a Suspected Compound in Routine Screening Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woldegebriel, M.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

2016-01-01

A novel method for compound identification in liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) is proposed. The method, based on Bayesian statistics, accommodates all possible uncertainties involved, from instrumentation up to data analysis into a single model yielding the

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Rational hypocrisy: a Bayesian analysis based on informal argumentation and slippery slopes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Tage S; Holyoak, Keith J

2014-01-01

Moral hypocrisy is typically viewed as an ethical accusation: Someone is applying different moral standards to essentially identical cases, dishonestly claiming that one action is acceptable while otherwise equivalent actions are not. We suggest that in some instances the apparent logical inconsistency stems from different evaluations of a weak argument, rather than dishonesty per se. Extending Corner, Hahn, and Oaksford's (2006) analysis of slippery slope arguments, we develop a Bayesian framework in which accusations of hypocrisy depend on inferences of shared category membership between proposed actions and previous standards, based on prior probabilities that inform the strength of competing hypotheses. Across three experiments, we demonstrate that inferences of hypocrisy increase as perceptions of the likelihood of shared category membership between precedent cases and current cases increase, that these inferences follow established principles of category induction, and that the presence of self-serving motives increases inferences of hypocrisy independent of changes in the actions themselves. Taken together, these results demonstrate that Bayesian analyses of weak arguments may have implications for assessing moral reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Bayesian approach to MSD-based analysis of particle motion in live cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Monnier, Nilah; Guo, Syuan-Ming; Mori, Masashi; He, Jun; Lénárt, Péter; Bathe, Mark

2012-08-08

Quantitative tracking of particle motion using live-cell imaging is a powerful approach to understanding the mechanism of transport of biological molecules, organelles, and cells. However, inferring complex stochastic motion models from single-particle trajectories in an objective manner is nontrivial due to noise from sampling limitations and biological heterogeneity. Here, we present a systematic Bayesian approach to multiple-hypothesis testing of a general set of competing motion models based on particle mean-square displacements that automatically classifies particle motion, properly accounting for sampling limitations and correlated noise while appropriately penalizing model complexity according to Occam's Razor to avoid over-fitting. We test the procedure rigorously using simulated trajectories for which the underlying physical process is known, demonstrating that it chooses the simplest physical model that explains the observed data. Further, we show that computed model probabilities provide a reliability test for the downstream biological interpretation of associated parameter values. We subsequently illustrate the broad utility of the approach by applying it to disparate biological systems including experimental particle trajectories from chromosomes, kinetochores, and membrane receptors undergoing a variety of complex motions. This automated and objective Bayesian framework easily scales to large numbers of particle trajectories, making it ideal for classifying the complex motion of large numbers of single molecules and cells from high-throughput screens, as well as single-cell-, tissue-, and organism-level studies. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pregnancy, thrombophilia, and the risk of a first venous thrombosis : Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Croles, F. Nanne; Nasserinejad, Kazem; Duvekot, Johannes J.; Kruip, Marieke J. H. A.; Meijer, Karina; Leebeek, Frank W. G.

2017-01-01

Objective: To provide evidence to support updated guidelines for the management of pregnant women with hereditary thrombophilia in order to reduce the risk of a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy. Design: Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis. Data sources: Embase, Medline, Web

Bayesian methods to restore and re build images: application to gamma-graphy and to photofission tomography; Methodes bayesiennes pour la restauration et la reconstruction d`images application a la gammagraphie et a la tomographie par photofissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stawinski, G

1998-10-26

Bayesian algorithms are developed to solve inverse problems in gamma imaging and photofission tomography. The first part of this work is devoted to the modeling of our measurement systems. Two models have been found for both applications: the first one is a simple conventional model and the second one is a cascaded point process model. EM and MCMC Bayesian algorithms for image restoration and image reconstruction have been developed for these models and compared. The cascaded point process model does not improve significantly the results previously obtained by the classical model. To original approaches have been proposed, which increase the results previously obtained. The first approach uses an inhomogeneous Markov Random Field as a prior law, and makes the regularization parameter spatially vary. However, the problem of the estimation of hyper-parameters has not been solved. In the case of the deconvolution of point sources, a second approach has been proposed, which introduces a high level prior model. The picture is modeled as a list of objects, whose parameters and number are unknown. The results obtained with this method are more accurate than those obtained with the conventional Markov Random Field prior model and require less computational costs. (author)

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

Science.gov (United States)

Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

2013-01-01

We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. © 2012 Paul Scherrer Institut.

Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

CRAFT (complete reduction to amplitude frequency table)--robust and time-efficient Bayesian approach for quantitative mixture analysis by NMR.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurthy, Krish

2013-12-01

The intrinsic quantitative nature of NMR is increasingly exploited in areas ranging from complex mixture analysis (as in metabolomics and reaction monitoring) to quality assurance/control. Complex NMR spectra are more common than not, and therefore, extraction of quantitative information generally involves significant prior knowledge and/or operator interaction to characterize resonances of interest. Moreover, in most NMR-based metabolomic experiments, the signals from metabolites are normally present as a mixture of overlapping resonances, making quantification difficult. Time-domain Bayesian approaches have been reported to be better than conventional frequency-domain analysis at identifying subtle changes in signal amplitude. We discuss an approach that exploits Bayesian analysis to achieve a complete reduction to amplitude frequency table (CRAFT) in an automated and time-efficient fashion - thus converting the time-domain FID to a frequency-amplitude table. CRAFT uses a two-step approach to FID analysis. First, the FID is digitally filtered and downsampled to several sub FIDs, and secondly, these sub FIDs are then modeled as sums of decaying sinusoids using the Bayesian approach. CRAFT tables can be used for further data mining of quantitative information using fingerprint chemical shifts of compounds of interest and/or statistical analysis of modulation of chemical quantity in a biological study (metabolomics) or process study (reaction monitoring) or quality assurance/control. The basic principles behind this approach as well as results to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in mixture analysis are presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On Bayesian Inference under Sampling from Scale Mixtures of Normals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández, C.; Steel, M.F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper considers a Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model under independent sampling from general scale mixtures of Normals.Using a common reference prior, we investigate the validity of Bayesian inference and the existence of posterior moments of the regression and precision

Pregnancy, thrombophilia, and the risk of a first venous thrombosis: systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

F.N. Croles (F. Nanne); K. Nasserinejad (Kazem); J.J. Duvekot (Hans); M.J.H.A. Kruip (Marieke); K. Meijer; F.W.G. Leebeek (Frank)

2017-01-01

textabstractObjective To provide evidence to support updated guidelines for the management of pregnant women with hereditary thrombophilia in order to reduce the risk of a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) in pregnancy.Design Systematic review and bayesian meta-analysis.Data sources Embase,

Feasibility of streamlining an interactive Bayesian-based diagnostic support tool designed for clinical practice

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Po-Hao; Botzolakis, Emmanuel; Mohan, Suyash; Bryan, R. N.; Cook, Tessa

2016-03-01

In radiology, diagnostic errors occur either through the failure of detection or incorrect interpretation. Errors are estimated to occur in 30-35% of all exams and contribute to 40-54% of medical malpractice litigations. In this work, we focus on reducing incorrect interpretation of known imaging features. Existing literature categorizes cognitive bias leading a radiologist to an incorrect diagnosis despite having correctly recognized the abnormal imaging features: anchoring bias, framing effect, availability bias, and premature closure. Computational methods make a unique contribution, as they do not exhibit the same cognitive biases as a human. Bayesian networks formalize the diagnostic process. They modify pre-test diagnostic probabilities using clinical and imaging features, arriving at a post-test probability for each possible diagnosis. To translate Bayesian networks to clinical practice, we implemented an entirely web-based open-source software tool. In this tool, the radiologist first selects a network of choice (e.g. basal ganglia). Then, large, clearly labeled buttons displaying salient imaging features are displayed on the screen serving both as a checklist and for input. As the radiologist inputs the value of an extracted imaging feature, the conditional probabilities of each possible diagnosis are updated. The software presents its level of diagnostic discrimination using a Pareto distribution chart, updated with each additional imaging feature. Active collaboration with the clinical radiologist is a feasible approach to software design and leads to design decisions closely coupling the complex mathematics of conditional probability in Bayesian networks with practice.

Bayesian automated cortical segmentation for neonatal MRI

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Zane; Paquette, Natacha; Ganesh, Bhavana; Wang, Yalin; Ceschin, Rafael; Nelson, Marvin D.; Macyszyn, Luke; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Panigrahy, Ashok; Lepore, Natasha

2017-11-01

Several attempts have been made in the past few years to develop and implement an automated segmentation of neonatal brain structural MRI. However, accurate automated MRI segmentation remains challenging in this population because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, large partial volume effects and inter-individual anatomical variability of the neonatal brain. In this paper, we propose a learning method for segmenting the whole brain cortical grey matter on neonatal T2-weighted images. We trained our algorithm using a neonatal dataset composed of 3 fullterm and 4 preterm infants scanned at term equivalent age. Our segmentation pipeline combines the FAST algorithm from the FSL library software and a Bayesian segmentation approach to create a threshold matrix that minimizes the error of mislabeling brain tissue types. Our method shows promising results with our pilot training set. In both preterm and full-term neonates, automated Bayesian segmentation generates a smoother and more consistent parcellation compared to FAST, while successfully removing the subcortical structure and cleaning the edges of the cortical grey matter. This method show promising refinement of the FAST segmentation by considerably reducing manual input and editing required from the user, and further improving reliability and processing time of neonatal MR images. Further improvement will include a larger dataset of training images acquired from different manufacturers.

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

Objective Bayesian Analysis of Skew- t Distributions

KAUST Repository

BRANCO, MARCIA D'ELIA

2012-02-27

We study the Jeffreys prior and its properties for the shape parameter of univariate skew-t distributions with linear and nonlinear Student\\'s t skewing functions. In both cases, we show that the resulting priors for the shape parameter are symmetric around zero and proper. Moreover, we propose a Student\\'s t approximation of the Jeffreys prior that makes an objective Bayesian analysis easy to perform. We carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study that demonstrates an overall better behaviour of the maximum a posteriori estimator compared with the maximum likelihood estimator. We also compare the frequentist coverage of the credible intervals based on the Jeffreys prior and its approximation and show that they are similar. We further discuss location-scale models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions and show some conditions for the existence of the posterior distribution and its moments. Finally, we present three numerical examples to illustrate the implications of our results on inference for skew-t distributions. © 2012 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

Science.gov (United States)

Jewell, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

GO-Bayes: Gene Ontology-based overrepresentation analysis using a Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Song; Cao, Jing; Kong, Y Megan; Scheuermann, Richard H

2010-04-01

A typical approach for the interpretation of high-throughput experiments, such as gene expression microarrays, is to produce groups of genes based on certain criteria (e.g. genes that are differentially expressed). To gain more mechanistic insights into the underlying biology, overrepresentation analysis (ORA) is often conducted to investigate whether gene sets associated with particular biological functions, for example, as represented by Gene Ontology (GO) annotations, are statistically overrepresented in the identified gene groups. However, the standard ORA, which is based on the hypergeometric test, analyzes each GO term in isolation and does not take into account the dependence structure of the GO-term hierarchy. We have developed a Bayesian approach (GO-Bayes) to measure overrepresentation of GO terms that incorporates the GO dependence structure by taking into account evidence not only from individual GO terms, but also from their related terms (i.e. parents, children, siblings, etc.). The Bayesian framework borrows information across related GO terms to strengthen the detection of overrepresentation signals. As a result, this method tends to identify sets of closely related GO terms rather than individual isolated GO terms. The advantage of the GO-Bayes approach is demonstrated with a simulation study and an application example.

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

conting : an R package for Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables

OpenAIRE

Overstall, Antony; King, Ruth

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the R package conting for the Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables using hierarchical log-linear models. This package allows a user to identify interactions between categorical factors (via complete contingency tables) and to estimate closed population sizes using capture-recapture studies (via incomplete contingency tables). The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In particular, implementations of the Me...

Thermodynamically consistent Bayesian analysis of closed biochemical reaction systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goutsias John

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimating the rate constants of a biochemical reaction system with known stoichiometry from noisy time series measurements of molecular concentrations is an important step for building predictive models of cellular function. Inference techniques currently available in the literature may produce rate constant values that defy necessary constraints imposed by the fundamental laws of thermodynamics. As a result, these techniques may lead to biochemical reaction systems whose concentration dynamics could not possibly occur in nature. Therefore, development of a thermodynamically consistent approach for estimating the rate constants of a biochemical reaction system is highly desirable. Results We introduce a Bayesian analysis approach for computing thermodynamically consistent estimates of the rate constants of a closed biochemical reaction system with known stoichiometry given experimental data. Our method employs an appropriately designed prior probability density function that effectively integrates fundamental biophysical and thermodynamic knowledge into the inference problem. Moreover, it takes into account experimental strategies for collecting informative observations of molecular concentrations through perturbations. The proposed method employs a maximization-expectation-maximization algorithm that provides thermodynamically feasible estimates of the rate constant values and computes appropriate measures of estimation accuracy. We demonstrate various aspects of the proposed method on synthetic data obtained by simulating a subset of a well-known model of the EGF/ERK signaling pathway, and examine its robustness under conditions that violate key assumptions. Software, coded in MATLAB®, which implements all Bayesian analysis techniques discussed in this paper, is available free of charge at http://www.cis.jhu.edu/~goutsias/CSS%20lab/software.html. Conclusions Our approach provides an attractive statistical methodology for

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

CERN Document Server

Candy, James V

2016-01-01

This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

Systematic search of Bayesian statistics in the field of psychotraumatology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, Rens; Schalken, Naomi; Olff, Miranda

2017-01-01

In many different disciplines there is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. Bayesian methods implement Bayes' theorem, which states that prior beliefs are updated with data, and this process produces updated beliefs about model parameters. The prior is based on how much information we

An analysis of the Bayesian track labelling problem

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aoki, E.H.; Boers, Y.; Svensson, Lennart; Mandal, Pranab K.; Bagchi, Arunabha

In multi-target tracking (MTT), the problem of assigning labels to tracks (track labelling) is vastly covered in literature, but its exact mathematical formulation, in terms of Bayesian statistics, has not been yet looked at in detail. Doing so, however, may help us to understand how Bayes-optimal

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Retinal Imaging and Image Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Abràmoff, Michael D.; Garvin, Mona K.; Sonka, Milan

2011-01-01

Many important eye diseases as well as systemic diseases manifest themselves in the retina. While a number of other anatomical structures contribute to the process of vision, this review focuses on retinal imaging and image analysis. Following a brief overview of the most prevalent causes of blindness in the industrialized world that includes age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and glaucoma, the review is devoted to retinal imaging and image analysis methods and their clinical implications. Methods for 2-D fundus imaging and techniques for 3-D optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging are reviewed. Special attention is given to quantitative techniques for analysis of fundus photographs with a focus on clinically relevant assessment of retinal vasculature, identification of retinal lesions, assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) shape, building retinal atlases, and to automated methods for population screening for retinal diseases. A separate section is devoted to 3-D analysis of OCT images, describing methods for segmentation and analysis of retinal layers, retinal vasculature, and 2-D/3-D detection of symptomatic exudate-associated derangements, as well as to OCT-based analysis of ONH morphology and shape. Throughout the paper, aspects of image acquisition, image analysis, and clinical relevance are treated together considering their mutually interlinked relationships. PMID:22275207

Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

A Bayesian analysis of the nucleon QCD sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohtani, Keisuke; Gubler, Philipp; Oka, Makoto

2011-01-01

QCD sum rules of the nucleon channel are reanalyzed, using the maximum-entropy method (MEM). This new approach, based on the Bayesian probability theory, does not restrict the spectral function to the usual ''pole + continuum'' form, allowing a more flexible investigation of the nucleon spectral function. Making use of this flexibility, we are able to investigate the spectral functions of various interpolating fields, finding that the nucleon ground state mainly couples to an operator containing a scalar diquark. Moreover, we formulate the Gaussian sum rule for the nucleon channel and find that it is more suitable for the MEM analysis to extract the nucleon pole in the region of its experimental value, while the Borel sum rule does not contain enough information to clearly separate the nucleon pole from the continuum. (orig.)

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Bayesian image reconstruction in SPECT using higher order mechanical models as priors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S.J.; Gindi, G.; Rangarajan, A.

1995-01-01

While the ML-EM (maximum-likelihood-expectation maximization) algorithm for reconstruction for emission tomography is unstable due to the ill-posed nature of the problem, Bayesian reconstruction methods overcome this instability by introducing prior information, often in the form of a spatial smoothness regularizer. More elaborate forms of smoothness constraints may be used to extend the role of the prior beyond that of a stabilizer in order to capture actual spatial information about the object. Previously proposed forms of such prior distributions were based on the assumption of a piecewise constant source distribution. Here, the authors propose an extension to a piecewise linear model--the weak plate--which is more expressive than the piecewise constant model. The weak plate prior not only preserves edges but also allows for piecewise ramplike regions in the reconstruction. Indeed, for the application in SPECT, such ramplike regions are observed in ground-truth source distributions in the form of primate autoradiographs of rCBF radionuclides. To incorporate the weak plate prior in a MAP approach, the authors model the prior as a Gibbs distribution and use a GEM formulation for the optimization. They compare quantitative performance of the ML-EM algorithm, a GEM algorithm with a prior favoring piecewise constant regions, and a GEM algorithm with the weak plate prior. Pointwise and regional bias and variance of ensemble image reconstructions are used as indications of image quality. The results show that the weak plate and membrane priors exhibit improved bias and variance relative to ML-EM techniques

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, Ian; Liu, Junli; Goldstein, Michael; Rowe, James; Topping, Jen; Lindsey, Keith

2018-01-02

Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs of the analysis, and need to be compared to observed data of various forms. The correct analysis of such models usually requires a global parameter search, over a high dimensional parameter space, that incorporates and respects the most important sources of uncertainty. This can be an extremely difficult task, but it is essential for any meaningful inference or prediction to be made about any biological system. It hence represents a fundamental challenge for the whole of systems biology. Bayesian statistical methodology for the uncertainty analysis of complex models is introduced, which is designed to address the high dimensional global parameter search problem. Bayesian emulators that mimic the systems biology model but which are extremely fast to evaluate are embeded within an iterative history match: an efficient method to search high dimensional spaces within a more formal statistical setting, while incorporating major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated via application to a model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development, which has 32 rate parameters, for which we identify the sets of rate parameter values that lead to acceptable matches between model output and observed trend data. The multiple insights into the model's structure that this analysis provides are discussed. The methodology is applied to a second related model, and the biological consequences of the resulting comparison, including the evaluation of gene functions, are described. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex models using both emulators and history matching is shown to be a powerful technique that can greatly aid the study of a large class of systems biology models. It both provides insight into model behaviour

Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

CERN Document Server

Blangiardo, Marta

2015-01-01

Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røge, Rasmus

the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number......This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...

Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seeger, Matthias W

2009-01-01

A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seeger, Matthias W [Saarland University and Max Planck Institute for Informatics, Campus E1.4, 66123 Saarbruecken (Germany)

2009-12-01

A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

How few countries will do? Comparative survey analysis from a Bayesian perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joop J.C.M. Hox

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Meuleman and Billiet (2009 have carried out a simulation study aimed at the question how many countries are needed for accurate multilevel SEM estimation in comparative studies. The authors concluded that a sample of 50 to 100 countries is needed for accurate estimation. Recently, Bayesian estimation methods have been introduced in structural equation modeling which should work well with much lower sample sizes. The current study reanalyzes the simulation of Meuleman and Billiet using Bayesian estimation to find the lowest number of countries needed when conducting multilevel SEM. The main result of our simulations is that a sample of about 20 countries is sufficient for accurate Bayesian estimation, which makes multilevel SEM practicable for the number of countries commonly available in large scale comparative surveys.

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

Comparing energy sources for surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D

2015-08-01

Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

ScreenBEAM: a novel meta-analysis algorithm for functional genomics screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Jiyang; Silva, Jose; Califano, Andrea

2016-01-15

Functional genomics (FG) screens, using RNAi or CRISPR technology, have become a standard tool for systematic, genome-wide loss-of-function studies for therapeutic target discovery. As in many large-scale assays, however, off-target effects, variable reagents' potency and experimental noise must be accounted for appropriately control for false positives. Indeed, rigorous statistical analysis of high-throughput FG screening data remains challenging, particularly when integrative analyses are used to combine multiple sh/sgRNAs targeting the same gene in the library. We use large RNAi and CRISPR repositories that are publicly available to evaluate a novel meta-analysis approach for FG screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Screening Bayesian Evaluation and Analysis Method (ScreenBEAM). Results from our analysis show that the proposed strategy, which seamlessly combines all available data, robustly outperforms classical algorithms developed for microarray data sets as well as recent approaches designed for next generation sequencing technologies. Remarkably, the ScreenBEAM algorithm works well even when the quality of FG screens is relatively low, which accounts for about 80-95% of the public datasets. R package and source code are available at: https://github.com/jyyu/ScreenBEAM. ac2248@columbia.edu, jose.silva@mssm.edu, yujiyang@gmail.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coolen, F.P.A.

1996-01-01

In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

A wavelet-based Bayesian framework for 3D object segmentation in microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Kangyu; Corrigan, David; Hillebrand, Jens; Ramaswami, Mani; Kokaram, Anil

2012-03-01

In confocal microscopy, target objects are labeled with fluorescent markers in the living specimen, and usually appear with irregular brightness in the observed images. Also, due to the existence of out-of-focus objects in the image, the segmentation of 3-D objects in the stack of image slices captured at different depth levels of the specimen is still heavily relied on manual analysis. In this paper, a novel Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting 3-D synaptic objects from given image stack. In order to solve the irregular brightness and out-offocus problems, the segmentation model employs a likelihood using the luminance-invariant 'wavelet features' of image objects in the dual-tree complex wavelet domain as well as a likelihood based on the vertical intensity profile of the image stack in 3-D. Furthermore, a smoothness 'frame' prior based on the a priori knowledge of the connections of the synapses is introduced to the model for enhancing the connectivity of the synapses. As a result, our model can successfully segment the in-focus target synaptic object from a 3D image stack with irregular brightness.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Radioactive Releases of Fukushima

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tomioka, Ryota; Mørup, Morten

2012-01-01

the types of nuclides and their levels of concentration from the recorded mixture of radiations to take necessary measures. We presently formulate a Bayesian generative model for the data available on radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster across Japan. From the sparsely sampled...... the Fukushima Daiichi plant we establish that the model is able to account for the data. We further demonstrate how the model extends to include all the available measurements recorded throughout Japan. The model can be considered a first attempt to apply Bayesian learning unsupervised in order to give a more......The Fukushima Daiichi disaster 11 March, 2011 is considered the largest nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and has been rated at level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. As different radioactive materials have different effects to human body, it is important to know...

A Bayesian deconvolution strategy for immunoprecipitation-based DNA methylome analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Down, Thomas A.; Rakyan, Vardhman K.; Turner, Daniel J.; Flicek, Paul; Li, Heng; Kulesha, Eugene; Gräf, Stefan; Johnson, Nathan; Herrero, Javier; Tomazou, Eleni M.; Thorne, Natalie P.; Bäckdahl, Liselotte; Herberth, Marlis; Howe, Kevin L.; Jackson, David K.; Miretti, Marcos M.; Marioni, John C.; Birney, Ewan; Hubbard, Tim J. P.; Durbin, Richard; Tavaré, Simon; Beck, Stephan

2009-01-01

DNA methylation is an indispensible epigenetic modification of mammalian genomes. Consequently there is great interest in strategies for genome-wide/whole-genome DNA methylation analysis, and immunoprecipitation-based methods have proven to be a powerful option. Such methods are rapidly shifting the bottleneck from data generation to data analysis, necessitating the development of better analytical tools. Until now, a major analytical difficulty associated with immunoprecipitation-based DNA methylation profiling has been the inability to estimate absolute methylation levels. Here we report the development of a novel cross-platform algorithm – Bayesian Tool for Methylation Analysis (Batman) – for analyzing Methylated DNA Immunoprecipitation (MeDIP) profiles generated using arrays (MeDIP-chip) or next-generation sequencing (MeDIP-seq). The latter is an approach we have developed to elucidate the first high-resolution whole-genome DNA methylation profile (DNA methylome) of any mammalian genome. MeDIP-seq/MeDIP-chip combined with Batman represent robust, quantitative, and cost-effective functional genomic strategies for elucidating the function of DNA methylation. PMID:18612301

Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

2018-01-01

This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

Bayesian estimation of seasonal course of canopy leaf area index from hyperspectral satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Varvia, Petri; Rautiainen, Miina; Seppänen, Aku

2018-03-01

In this paper, Bayesian inversion of a physically-based forest reflectance model is investigated to estimate of boreal forest canopy leaf area index (LAI) from EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral data. The data consist of multiple forest stands with different species compositions and structures, imaged in three phases of the growing season. The Bayesian estimates of canopy LAI are compared to reference estimates based on a spectral vegetation index. The forest reflectance model contains also other unknown variables in addition to LAI, for example leaf single scattering albedo and understory reflectance. In the Bayesian approach, these variables are estimated simultaneously with LAI. The feasibility and seasonal variation of these estimates is also examined. Credible intervals for the estimates are also calculated and evaluated. The results show that the Bayesian inversion approach is significantly better than using a comparable spectral vegetation index regression.

A Bayesian Analysis of Unobserved Component Models Using Ox

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles S. Bos

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This article details a Bayesian analysis of the Nile river flow data, using a similar state space model as other articles in this volume. For this data set, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling algorithms are implemented in the programming language Ox. These Markov chain Monte Carlo methods only provide output conditioned upon the full data set. For filtered output, conditioning only on past observations, the particle filter is introduced. The sampling methods are flexible, and this advantage is used to extend the model to incorporate a stochastic volatility process. The volatility changes both in the Nile data and also in daily S&P 500 return data are investigated. The posterior density of parameters and states is found to provide information on which elements of the model are easily identifiable, and which elements are estimated with less precision.

Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of accelerated failure time models with cluster structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhaonan; Xu, Xinyi; Shen, Junshan

2017-11-10

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for survival data with cluster structures. Our model allows distributional heterogeneity across clusters and accommodates their relationships through a density ratio approach. Moreover, a nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet processes prior is placed on the baseline distribution to yield full distributional flexibility. We illustrate through simulations that our model can greatly improve estimation accuracy by effectively pooling information from multiple clusters, while taking into account the heterogeneity in their random error distributions. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method using analysis of Mayo Clinic Trial in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cone Beam X-ray Luminescence Computed Tomography Based on Bayesian Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Guanglei; Liu, Fei; Liu, Jie; Luo, Jianwen; Xie, Yaoqin; Bai, Jing; Xing, Lei

2017-01-01

X-ray luminescence computed tomography (XLCT), which aims to achieve molecular and functional imaging by X-rays, has recently been proposed as a new imaging modality. Combining the principles of X-ray excitation of luminescence-based probes and optical signal detection, XLCT naturally fuses functional and anatomical images and provides complementary information for a wide range of applications in biomedical research. In order to improve the data acquisition efficiency of previously developed narrow-beam XLCT, a cone beam XLCT (CB-XLCT) mode is adopted here to take advantage of the useful geometric features of cone beam excitation. Practically, a major hurdle in using cone beam X-ray for XLCT is that the inverse problem here is seriously ill-conditioned, hindering us to achieve good image quality. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian method to tackle the bottleneck in CB-XLCT reconstruction. The method utilizes a local regularization strategy based on Gaussian Markov random field to mitigate the ill-conditioness of CB-XLCT. An alternating optimization scheme is then used to automatically calculate all the unknown hyperparameters while an iterative coordinate descent algorithm is adopted to reconstruct the image with a voxel-based closed-form solution. Results of numerical simulations and mouse experiments show that the self-adaptive Bayesian method significantly improves the CB-XLCT image quality as compared with conventional methods.

Applying Bayesian Statistics to Educational Evaluation. Theoretical Paper No. 62.

Science.gov (United States)

Brumet, Michael E.

Bayesian statistical inference is unfamiliar to many educational evaluators. While the classical model is useful in educational research, it is not as useful in evaluation because of the need to identify solutions to practical problems based on a wide spectrum of information. The reason Bayesian analysis is effective for decision making is that it…

Experimental validation of a Bayesian model of visual acuity.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Dalimier, Eugénie

2009-01-01

Based on standard procedures used in optometry clinics, we compare measurements of visual acuity for 10 subjects (11 eyes tested) in the presence of natural ocular aberrations and different degrees of induced defocus, with the predictions given by a Bayesian model customized with aberrometric data of the eye. The absolute predictions of the model, without any adjustment, show good agreement with the experimental data, in terms of correlation and absolute error. The efficiency of the model is discussed in comparison with image quality metrics and other customized visual process models. An analysis of the importance and customization of each stage of the model is also given; it stresses the potential high predictive power from precise modeling of ocular and neural transfer functions.

An elementary introduction to Bayesian computing using WinBUGS.

Science.gov (United States)

Fryback, D G; Stout, N K; Rosenberg, M A

2001-01-01

Bayesian statistics provides effective techniques for analyzing data and translating the results to inform decision making. This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of the WinBUGS software for performing Bayesian statistical analysis. Background information on the computational methods used by the software is provided. Two examples drawn from the field of medical decision making are presented to illustrate the features and functionality of the software.

A Bayesian nonrigid registration method to enhance intraoperative target definition in image-guided prostate procedures through uncertainty characterization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pursley, Jennifer; Risholm, Petter; Fedorov, Andriy; Tuncali, Kemal; Fennessy, Fiona M.; Wells, William M. III; Tempany, Clare M.; Cormack, Robert A.

2012-01-01

Purpose: This study introduces a probabilistic nonrigid registration method for use in image-guided prostate brachytherapy. Intraoperative imaging for prostate procedures, usually transrectal ultrasound (TRUS), is typically inferior to diagnostic-quality imaging of the pelvis such as endorectal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). MR images contain superior detail of the prostate boundaries and provide substructure features not otherwise visible. Previous efforts to register diagnostic prostate images with the intraoperative coordinate system have been deterministic and did not offer a measure of the registration uncertainty. The authors developed a Bayesian registration method to estimate the posterior distribution on deformations and provide a case-specific measure of the associated registration uncertainty. Methods: The authors adapted a biomechanical-based probabilistic nonrigid method to register diagnostic to intraoperative images by aligning a physician's segmentations of the prostate in the two images. The posterior distribution was characterized with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; the maximum a posteriori deformation and the associated uncertainty were estimated from the collection of deformation samples drawn from the posterior distribution. The authors validated the registration method using a dataset created from ten patients with MRI-guided prostate biopsies who had both diagnostic and intraprocedural 3 Tesla MRI scans. The accuracy and precision of the estimated posterior distribution on deformations were evaluated from two predictive distance distributions: between the deformed central zone-peripheral zone (CZ-PZ) interface and the physician-labeled interface, and based on physician-defined landmarks. Geometric margins on the registration of the prostate's peripheral zone were determined from the posterior predictive distance to the CZ-PZ interface separately for the base, mid-gland, and apical regions of the prostate. Results: The authors observed

The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selig, Marco

2014-01-01

We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy

The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

Science.gov (United States)

Selig, Marco

2014-12-01

We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

Testing non-minimally coupled inflation with CMB data: a Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campista, Marcela; Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson

2017-01-01

We use the most recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) data to perform a Bayesian statistical analysis and discuss the observational viability of inflationary models with a non-minimal coupling, ξ, between the inflaton field and the Ricci scalar. We particularize our analysis to two examples of small and large field inflationary models, namely, the Coleman-Weinberg and the chaotic quartic potentials. We find that ( i ) the ξ parameter is closely correlated with the primordial amplitude ; ( ii ) although improving the agreement with the CMB data in the r − n s plane, where r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio and n s the primordial spectral index, a non-null coupling is strongly disfavoured with respect to the minimally coupled standard ΛCDM model, since the upper bounds of the Bayes factor (odds) for ξ parameter are greater than 150:1.

Status of the 2D Bayesian analysis of XENON100 data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schindler, Stefan [JGU, Staudingerweg 7, 55128 Mainz (Germany)

2015-07-01

The XENON100 experiment is located in the underground laboratory at LNGS in Italy. Since Dark Matter particles will only interact very rarely with normal matter, an environment with ultra low background, which is shielded from cosmic radiation is needed. The standard analysis of XENON100 data has made use of the profile likelihood method (a most frequent approach) and still provides one of the most sensitive exclusion limits to WIMP Dark Matter. Here we present work towards a Bayesian approach to the analysis of XENON100 data, where we attempt to include the measured primary (S1) and secondary (S2) scintillation signals in a more complete way. The background and signal models in the S1-S2 space have to be defined and a corresponding likelihood function, describing these models, has to be constructed.

Testing non-minimally coupled inflation with CMB data: a Bayesian analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campista, Marcela; Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson, E-mail: campista@on.br, E-mail: micolbenetti@on.br, E-mail: alcaniz@on.br [Observatório Nacional, Rua General José Cristino 77, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20921-400 Brazil (Brazil)

2017-09-01

We use the most recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) data to perform a Bayesian statistical analysis and discuss the observational viability of inflationary models with a non-minimal coupling, ξ, between the inflaton field and the Ricci scalar. We particularize our analysis to two examples of small and large field inflationary models, namely, the Coleman-Weinberg and the chaotic quartic potentials. We find that ( i ) the ξ parameter is closely correlated with the primordial amplitude ; ( ii ) although improving the agreement with the CMB data in the r − n {sub s} plane, where r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio and n {sub s} the primordial spectral index, a non-null coupling is strongly disfavoured with respect to the minimally coupled standard ΛCDM model, since the upper bounds of the Bayes factor (odds) for ξ parameter are greater than 150:1.

Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.

Science.gov (United States)

Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

2008-09-01

Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.

Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

Bayesian ideas and data analysis an introduction for scientists and statisticians

CERN Document Server

Christensen, Ronald; Branscum, Adam; Hanson, Timothy E.

2010-01-01

This book provides a good introduction to Bayesian approaches to applied statistical modelling. … The authors have fulfilled their main aim of introducing Bayesian ideas through examples using a large number of statistical models. An interesting feature of this book is the humour of the authors that make it more fun than typical statistics books. In summary, this is a very interesting introductory book, very well organised and has been written in a style that is extremely pleasant and enjoyable to read. Both the statistical concepts and examples are very well explained. In conclusion, I highly

Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

Science.gov (United States)

Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

2018-01-01

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

Nonlinear Bayesian Algorithms for Gas Plume Detection and Estimation from Hyper-spectral Thermal Image Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heasler, Patrick G.; Posse, Christian; Hylden, Jeff L.; Anderson, Kevin K.

2007-06-13

This paper presents a nonlinear Bayesian regression algorithm for the purpose of detecting and estimating gas plume content from hyper-spectral data. Remote sensing data, by its very nature, is collected under less controlled conditions than laboratory data. As a result, the physics-based model that is used to describe the relationship between the observed remotesensing spectra, and the terrestrial (or atmospheric) parameters that we desire to estimate, is typically littered with many unknown "nuisance" parameters (parameters that we are not interested in estimating, but also appear in the model). Bayesian methods are well-suited for this context as they automatically incorporate the uncertainties associated with all nuisance parameters into the error estimates of the parameters of interest. The nonlinear Bayesian regression methodology is illustrated on realistic simulated data from a three-layer model for longwave infrared (LWIR) measurements from a passive instrument. This shows that this approach should permit more accurate estimation as well as a more reasonable description of estimate uncertainty.

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Bayesian analysis of heat pipe life test data for reliability demonstration testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartholomew, R.J.; Martz, H.F.

1985-01-01

The demonstration testing duration requirements to establish a quantitative measure of assurance of expected lifetime for heat pipes was determined. The heat pipes are candidate devices for transporting heat generated in a nuclear reactor core to thermoelectric converters for use as a space-based electric power plant. A Bayesian analysis technique is employed, utilizing a limited Delphi survey, and a geometric mean accelerated test criterion involving heat pipe power (P) and temperature (T). Resulting calculations indicate considerable test savings can be achieved by employing the method, but development testing to determine heat pipe failure mechanisms should not be circumvented

Statistical assignment of DNA sequences using Bayesian phylogenetics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Terkelsen, Kasper Munch; Boomsma, Wouter Krogh; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2008-01-01

We provide a new automated statistical method for DNA barcoding based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The method is based on automated database sequence retrieval, alignment, and phylogenetic analysis using a custom-built program for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. We show on real data...... that the method outperforms Blast searches as a measure of confidence and can help eliminate 80% of all false assignment based on best Blast hit. However, the most important advance of the method is that it provides statistically meaningful measures of confidence. We apply the method to a re......-analysis of previously published ancient DNA data and show that, with high statistical confidence, most of the published sequences are in fact of Neanderthal origin. However, there are several cases of chimeric sequences that are comprised of a combination of both Neanderthal and modern human DNA....

Image analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berman, M.; Bischof, L.M.; Breen, E.J.; Peden, G.M.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of modern image analysis techniques pertinent to materials science. The usual approach in image analysis contains two basic steps: first, the image is segmented into its constituent components (e.g. individual grains), and second, measurement and quantitative analysis are performed. Usually, the segmentation part of the process is the harder of the two. Consequently, much of the paper concentrates on this aspect, reviewing both fundamental segmentation tools (commonly found in commercial image analysis packages) and more advanced segmentation tools. There is also a review of the most widely used quantitative analysis methods for measuring the size, shape and spatial arrangements of objects. Many of the segmentation and analysis methods are demonstrated using complex real-world examples. Finally, there is a discussion of hardware and software issues. 42 refs., 17 figs

Bus Route Design with a Bayesian Network Analysis of Bus Service Revenues

OpenAIRE

Liu, Yi; Jia, Yuanhua; Feng, Xuesong; Wu, Jiang

2018-01-01

A Bayesian network is used to estimate revenues of bus services in consideration of the effect of bus travel demands, passenger transport distances, and so on. In this research, the area X in Beijing has been selected as the study area because of its relatively high bus travel demand and, on the contrary, unsatisfactory bus services. It is suggested that the proposed Bayesian network approach is able to rationally predict the probabilities of different revenues of various route services, from...

Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner's dilemma games

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Howard Kunreuther

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner's dilemma (PD game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn about the actions of one's counterpart, an area of recent interest in experimental economics. This novel data set, from a series of controlled laboratory experiments, is analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical methods, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We find that individuals are much more likely to be cooperative when payoffs are deterministic than when the outcomes are probabilistic. A key factor explaining this difference is that subjects in a stochastic PD game respond not just to what their counterparts did but also to whether or not they suffered a loss. These findings are interpreted in the context of behavioral theories of commitment, altruism and reciprocity. The work provides a linkage between Bayesian statistics, experimental economics, and consumer psychology.

Assessing compositional variability through graphical analysis and Bayesian statistical approaches: case studies on transgenic crops.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrigan, George G; Harrison, Jay M

2012-01-01

New transgenic (GM) crops are subjected to extensive safety assessments that include compositional comparisons with conventional counterparts as a cornerstone of the process. The influence of germplasm, location, environment, and agronomic treatments on compositional variability is, however, often obscured in these pair-wise comparisons. Furthermore, classical statistical significance testing can often provide an incomplete and over-simplified summary of highly responsive variables such as crop composition. In order to more clearly describe the influence of the numerous sources of compositional variation we present an introduction to two alternative but complementary approaches to data analysis and interpretation. These include i) exploratory data analysis (EDA) with its emphasis on visualization and graphics-based approaches and ii) Bayesian statistical methodology that provides easily interpretable and meaningful evaluations of data in terms of probability distributions. The EDA case-studies include analyses of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean and insect-protected GM maize and soybean. Bayesian approaches are presented in an analysis of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean. Advantages of these approaches over classical frequentist significance testing include the more direct interpretation of results in terms of probabilities pertaining to quantities of interest and no confusion over the application of corrections for multiple comparisons. It is concluded that a standardized framework for these methodologies could provide specific advantages through enhanced clarity of presentation and interpretation in comparative assessments of crop composition.

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

Bayesian network representing system dynamics in risk analysis of nuclear systems

Science.gov (United States)

Varuttamaseni, Athi

2011-12-01

A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model is used in conjunction with the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) regression method to analyze the risk associated with the loss of feedwater accident coupled with a subsequent initiation of the feed and bleed operation in the Zion-1 nuclear power plant. The use of the DBN allows the joint probability distribution to be factorized, enabling the analysis to be done on many simpler network structures rather than on one complicated structure. The construction of the DBN model assumes conditional independence relations among certain key reactor parameters. The choice of parameter to model is based on considerations of the macroscopic balance statements governing the behavior of the reactor under a quasi-static assumption. The DBN is used to relate the peak clad temperature to a set of independent variables that are known to be important in determining the success of the feed and bleed operation. A simple linear relationship is then used to relate the clad temperature to the core damage probability. To obtain a quantitative relationship among different nodes in the DBN, surrogates of the RELAP5 reactor transient analysis code are used. These surrogates are generated by applying the ACE algorithm to output data obtained from about 50 RELAP5 cases covering a wide range of the selected independent variables. These surrogates allow important safety parameters such as the fuel clad temperature to be expressed as a function of key reactor parameters such as the coolant temperature and pressure together with important independent variables such as the scram delay time. The time-dependent core damage probability is calculated by sampling the independent variables from their probability distributions and propagate the information up through the Bayesian network to give the clad temperature. With the knowledge of the clad temperature and the assumption that the core damage probability has a one-to-one relationship to it, we have

System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

2018-05-01

In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Durbin, J.; Koopman, S.J.M.

1998-01-01

The analysis of non-Gaussian time series using state space models is considered from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. The treatment in both cases is based on simulation using importance sampling and antithetic variables; Monte Carlo Markov chain methods are not employed. Non-Gaussian

Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prosper Harrison B.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

2001-01-01

.... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Lemey

2009-09-01

Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

2017-01-01

We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quackenbush John

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results. Results Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data. Conclusion The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.

Using Naïve Bayesian Analysis to Determine Imaging Characteristics of KRAS Mutations in Metastatic Colon Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Pershad, Yash; Govindan, Siddharth; Hara, Amy K; Borad, Mitesh J; Bekaii-Saab, Tanios; Wallace, Alex; Albadawi, Hassan; Oklu, Rahmi

2017-09-02

Genotype, particularly Ras status, greatly affects prognosis and treatment of liver metastasis in colon cancer patients. This pilot aimed to apply word frequency analysis and a naive Bayes classifier on radiology reports to extract distinguishing imaging descriptors of wild-type colon cancer patients and those with v-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutations. In this institutional-review-board-approved study, we compiled a SNaPshot mutation analysis dataset from 457 colon adenocarcinoma patients. From this cohort of patients, we analyzed radiology reports of 299 patients (> 32,000 reports) who either were wild-type (147 patients) or had a KRAS (152 patients) mutation. Our algorithm determined word frequency within the wild-type and mutant radiology reports and used a naive Bayes classifier to determine the probability of a given word belonging to either group. The classifier determined that words with a greater than 50% chance of being in the KRAS mutation group and which had the highest absolute probability difference compared to the wild-type group included: "several", "innumerable", "confluent", and "numerous" ( p colon adenocarcinoma. Moreover, likely characteristic imaging traits of mutant tumors make probabilistic word analysis useful in identifying unique characteristics and disease course, with applications ranging from radiology and pathology reports to clinical notes.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hargrave, C; Deegan, T; Gibbs, A; Poulsen, M; Moores, M; Harden, F; Mengersen, K

2014-01-01

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Hargrave, C.; Moores, M.; Deegan, T.; Gibbs, A.; Poulsen, M.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.

2014-03-01

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

Optimal soil venting design using Bayesian Decision analysis

OpenAIRE

Kaluarachchi, J. J.; Wijedasa, A. H.

1994-01-01

Remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated sites can be costly and the design process becomes complex in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Classical decision theory related to remediation design requires the parameter uncertainties to be stipulated in terms of statistical estimates based on site observations. In the absence of detailed data on parameter uncertainty, classical decision theory provides little contribution in designing a risk-based optimal design strategy. Bayesian decision th...

Statistical analysis of modal parameters of a suspension bridge based on Bayesian spectral density approach and SHM data

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhijun; Feng, Maria Q.; Luo, Longxi; Feng, Dongming; Xu, Xiuli

2018-01-01

Uncertainty of modal parameters estimation appear in structural health monitoring (SHM) practice of civil engineering to quite some significant extent due to environmental influences and modeling errors. Reasonable methodologies are needed for processing the uncertainty. Bayesian inference can provide a promising and feasible identification solution for the purpose of SHM. However, there are relatively few researches on the application of Bayesian spectral method in the modal identification using SHM data sets. To extract modal parameters from large data sets collected by SHM system, the Bayesian spectral density algorithm was applied to address the uncertainty of mode extraction from output-only response of a long-span suspension bridge. The posterior most possible values of modal parameters and their uncertainties were estimated through Bayesian inference. A long-term variation and statistical analysis was performed using the sensor data sets collected from the SHM system of the suspension bridge over a one-year period. The t location-scale distribution was shown to be a better candidate function for frequencies of lower modes. On the other hand, the burr distribution provided the best fitting to the higher modes which are sensitive to the temperature. In addition, wind-induced variation of modal parameters was also investigated. It was observed that both the damping ratios and modal forces increased during the period of typhoon excitations. Meanwhile, the modal damping ratios exhibit significant correlation with the spectral intensities of the corresponding modal forces.

Remotely Sensed Monitoring of Small Reservoir Dynamics: A Bayesian Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Eilander

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitoring small reservoirs with radar satellite images. The newly developed growing Bayesian classifier has a high degree of automation, can readily be extended with auxiliary information and reduces the confusion error to the land-water boundary pixels. A case study has been performed in the Upper East Region of Ghana, based on Radarsat-2 data from November 2012 until April 2013. Results show that the growing Bayesian classifier can deal with the spatial and temporal variability in synthetic aperture radar (SAR backscatter intensities from small reservoirs. Due to its ability to incorporate auxiliary information, the algorithm is able to delineate open water from SAR imagery with a low land-water contrast in the case of wind-induced Bragg scattering or limited vegetation on the land surrounding a small reservoir.

A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

Fossil Signatures Using Elemental Abundance Distributions and Bayesian Probabilistic Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, Richard B.; Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.

2004-01-01

Elemental abundances (C6, N7, O8, Na11, Mg12, Al3, P15, S16, Cl17, K19, Ca20, Ti22, Mn25, Fe26, and Ni28) were obtained for a set of terrestrial fossils and the rock matrix surrounding them. Principal Component Analysis extracted five factors accounting for the 92.5% of the data variance, i.e. information content, of the elemental abundance data. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis provided unsupervised sample classification distinguishing fossil from matrix samples on the basis of either raw abundances or PCA input that agreed strongly with visual classification. A stochastic, non-linear Artificial Neural Network produced a Bayesian probability of correct sample classification. The results provide a quantitative probabilistic methodology for discriminating terrestrial fossils from the surrounding rock matrix using chemical information. To demonstrate the applicability of these techniques to the assessment of meteoritic samples or in situ extraterrestrial exploration, we present preliminary data on samples of the Orgueil meteorite. In both systems an elemental signature produces target classification decisions remarkably consistent with morphological classification by a human expert using only structural (visual) information. We discuss the possibility of implementing a complexity analysis metric capable of automating certain image analysis and pattern recognition abilities of the human eye using low magnification optical microscopy images and discuss the extension of this technique across multiple scales.

A Bayesian account of quantum histories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marlow, Thomas

2006-01-01

We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistent with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory

Bayesian Multiresolution Variable Selection for Ultra-High Dimensional Neuroimaging Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Long, Qi

2018-01-01

Ultra-high dimensional variable selection has become increasingly important in analysis of neuroimaging data. For example, in the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) study, neuroscientists are interested in identifying important biomarkers for early detection of the autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using high resolution brain images that include hundreds of thousands voxels. However, most existing methods are not feasible for solving this problem due to their extensive computational costs. In this work, we propose a novel multiresolution variable selection procedure under a Bayesian probit regression framework. It recursively uses posterior samples for coarser-scale variable selection to guide the posterior inference on finer-scale variable selection, leading to very efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The proposed algorithms are computationally feasible for ultra-high dimensional data. Also, our model incorporates two levels of structural information into variable selection using Ising priors: the spatial dependence between voxels and the functional connectivity between anatomical brain regions. Applied to the resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI) data in the ABIDE study, our methods identify voxel-level imaging biomarkers highly predictive of the ASD, which are biologically meaningful and interpretable. Extensive simulations also show that our methods achieve better performance in variable selection compared to existing methods.

Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Seehars, Sebastian; Hasner, Caspar

2015-01-01

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to the posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release

Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Non-Stationarity in Multi-agent Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TONT Gabriela

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian methods provide information about the meaningful parameters in a statistical analysis obtained by combining the prior and sampling distributions to form the posterior distribution of theparameters. The desired inferences are obtained from this joint posterior. An estimation strategy for hierarchical models, where the resulting joint distribution of the associated model parameters cannotbe evaluated analytically, is to use sampling algorithms, known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods, from which approximate solutions can be obtained. Both serial and parallel configurations of subcomponents are permitted. The capability of time-dependent method to describe a multi-state system is based on a case study, assessingthe operatial situation of studied system. The rationality and validity of the presented model are demonstrated via a case of study. The effect of randomness of the structural parameters is alsoexamined.

Bayesian nonparametric estimation of continuous monotone functions with applications to dose-response analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bornkamp, Björn; Ickstadt, Katja

2009-03-01

In this article, we consider monotone nonparametric regression in a Bayesian framework. The monotone function is modeled as a mixture of shifted and scaled parametric probability distribution functions, and a general random probability measure is assumed as the prior for the mixing distribution. We investigate the choice of the underlying parametric distribution function and find that the two-sided power distribution function is well suited both from a computational and mathematical point of view. The model is motivated by traditional nonlinear models for dose-response analysis, and provides possibilities to elicitate informative prior distributions on different aspects of the curve. The method is compared with other recent approaches to monotone nonparametric regression in a simulation study and is illustrated on a data set from dose-response analysis.

Bayesian Analysis for EMP Survival Probability of Solid State Relay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Beiyun; Zhou Hui; Cheng Xiangyue; Mao Congguang

2009-01-01

The principle to estimate the parameter p of binomial distribution by Bayesian method and the several non-informative prior are introduced. The survival probability of DC solid state relay under current injection at certain amplitude is obtained by this method. (authors)

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Limin Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui; Wang Huaning; Cui Yanmei

2010-01-01

A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN R ) and feature extracted data (BN F ), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN R and the BN F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

Scalable Bayesian nonparametric measures for exploring pairwise dependence via Dirichlet Process Mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Filippi, Sarah; Holmes, Chris C; Nieto-Barajas, Luis E

2016-11-16

In this article we propose novel Bayesian nonparametric methods using Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models for detecting pairwise dependence between random variables while accounting for uncertainty in the form of the underlying distributions. A key criteria is that the procedures should scale to large data sets. In this regard we find that the formal calculation of the Bayes factor for a dependent-vs.-independent DPM joint probability measure is not feasible computationally. To address this we present Bayesian diagnostic measures for characterising evidence against a "null model" of pairwise independence. In simulation studies, as well as for a real data analysis, we show that our approach provides a useful tool for the exploratory nonparametric Bayesian analysis of large multivariate data sets.

The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

The application of bayesian statistic in data fit processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guan Xingyin; Li Zhenfu; Song Zhaohui

2010-01-01

The rationality and disadvantage of least squares fitting that is usually used in data processing is analyzed, and the theory and commonly method that Bayesian statistic is applied in data processing is shown in detail. As it is proved in analysis, Bayesian approach avoid the limitative hypothesis that least squares fitting has in data processing, and the result has traits that it is more scientific and more easily understood, may replace the least squares fitting to apply in data processing. (authors)

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen Ringi, M

1995-05-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen Ringi, M.

1995-01-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

Approximate Bayesian computation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikael Sunnåker

Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps : An annotated reading list

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Etz, A.; Gronau, Q.F.; Dablander, F.; Edelsbrunner, P.A.; Baribault, B.

In this guide, we present a reading list to serve as a concise introduction to Bayesian data analysis. The introduction is geared toward reviewers, editors, and interested researchers who are new to Bayesian statistics. We provide commentary for eight recommended sources, which together cover the

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

2016-02-01

Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

OpenAIRE

Shan, Xian; Liu, Kang; Sun, Pei-Liang

2017-01-01

Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential...

SQL based cardiovascular ultrasound image classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Nandagopalan, S; Suryanarayana, Adiga B; Sudarshan, T S B; Chandrashekar, Dhanalakshmi; Manjunath, C N

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a novel method to analyze and classify the cardiovascular ultrasound echocardiographic images using Naïve-Bayesian model via database OLAP-SQL. Efficient data mining algorithms based on tightly-coupled model is used to extract features. Three algorithms are proposed for classification namely Naïve-Bayesian Classifier for Discrete variables (NBCD) with SQL, NBCD with OLAP-SQL, and Naïve-Bayesian Classifier for Continuous variables (NBCC) using OLAP-SQL. The proposed model is trained with 207 patient images containing normal and abnormal categories. Out of the three proposed algorithms, a high classification accuracy of 96.59% was achieved from NBCC which is better than the earlier methods.

Bayesian mixture analysis for metagenomic community profiling.

Science.gov (United States)

Morfopoulou, Sofia; Plagnol, Vincent

2015-09-15

Deep sequencing of clinical samples is now an established tool for the detection of infectious pathogens, with direct medical applications. The large amount of data generated produces an opportunity to detect species even at very low levels, provided that computational tools can effectively profile the relevant metagenomic communities. Data interpretation is complicated by the fact that short sequencing reads can match multiple organisms and by the lack of completeness of existing databases, in particular for viral pathogens. Here we present metaMix, a Bayesian mixture model framework for resolving complex metagenomic mixtures. We show that the use of parallel Monte Carlo Markov chains for the exploration of the species space enables the identification of the set of species most likely to contribute to the mixture. We demonstrate the greater accuracy of metaMix compared with relevant methods, particularly for profiling complex communities consisting of several related species. We designed metaMix specifically for the analysis of deep transcriptome sequencing datasets, with a focus on viral pathogen detection; however, the principles are generally applicable to all types of metagenomic mixtures. metaMix is implemented as a user friendly R package, freely available on CRAN: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/metaMix sofia.morfopoulou.10@ucl.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bionformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model

Science.gov (United States)

Samanta, S.; Mackay, D. S.; Clayton, M. K.; Kruger, E. L.; Ewers, B. E.

2007-04-01

A Bayesian approach was used to fit a conceptual transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for a sugar maple (Acer saccharum) stand collected over a 5-month period and probabilistically estimate its parameter and prediction uncertainties. The model used the Penman-Monteith equation with the Jarvis model for canopy conductance. This deterministic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term. This extension enabled using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to sample the posterior parameter distributions. The residuals revealed approximate conformance to the assumption of normally distributed errors. However, minor systematic structures in the residuals at fine timescales suggested model changes that would potentially improve the modeling of transpiration. Results also indicated considerable uncertainties in the parameter and transpiration estimates. This simple methodology of uncertainty analysis would facilitate the deductive step during the development cycle of deterministic conceptual models by accounting for these uncertainties while drawing inferences from data.

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

Joint High-Dimensional Bayesian Variable and Covariance Selection with an Application to eQTL Analysis

KAUST Repository

Bhadra, Anindya

2013-04-22

We describe a Bayesian technique to (a) perform a sparse joint selection of significant predictor variables and significant inverse covariance matrix elements of the response variables in a high-dimensional linear Gaussian sparse seemingly unrelated regression (SSUR) setting and (b) perform an association analysis between the high-dimensional sets of predictors and responses in such a setting. To search the high-dimensional model space, where both the number of predictors and the number of possibly correlated responses can be larger than the sample size, we demonstrate that a marginalization-based collapsed Gibbs sampler, in combination with spike and slab type of priors, offers a computationally feasible and efficient solution. As an example, we apply our method to an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis on publicly available single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and gene expression data for humans where the primary interest lies in finding the significant associations between the sets of SNPs and possibly correlated genetic transcripts. Our method also allows for inference on the sparse interaction network of the transcripts (response variables) after accounting for the effect of the SNPs (predictor variables). We exploit properties of Gaussian graphical models to make statements concerning conditional independence of the responses. Our method compares favorably to existing Bayesian approaches developed for this purpose. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A Dynamic Bayesian Approach to Computational Laban Shape Quality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilip Swaminathan

2009-01-01

kinesiology. LMA (especially Effort/Shape emphasizes how internal feelings and intentions govern the patterning of movement throughout the whole body. As we argue, a complex understanding of intention via LMA is necessary for human-computer interaction to become embodied in ways that resemble interaction in the physical world. We thus introduce a novel, flexible Bayesian fusion approach for identifying LMA Shape qualities from raw motion capture data in real time. The method uses a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN to fuse movement features across the body and across time and as we discuss can be readily adapted for low-cost video. It has delivered excellent performance in preliminary studies comprising improvisatory movements. Our approach has been incorporated in Response, a mixed-reality environment where users interact via natural, full-body human movement and enhance their bodily-kinesthetic awareness through immersive sound and light feedback, with applications to kinesiology training, Parkinson's patient rehabilitation, interactive dance, and many other areas.

Random resampling masks: a non-Bayesian one-shot strategy for noise reduction in digital holography.

Science.gov (United States)

Bianco, V; Paturzo, M; Memmolo, P; Finizio, A; Ferraro, P; Javidi, B

2013-03-01

Holographic imaging may become severely degraded by a mixture of speckle and incoherent additive noise. Bayesian approaches reduce the incoherent noise, but prior information is needed on the noise statistics. With no prior knowledge, one-shot reduction of noise is a highly desirable goal, as the recording process is simplified and made faster. Indeed, neither multiple acquisitions nor a complex setup are needed. So far, this result has been achieved at the cost of a deterministic resolution loss. Here we propose a fast non-Bayesian denoising method that avoids this trade-off by means of a numerical synthesis of a moving diffuser. In this way, only one single hologram is required as multiple uncorrelated reconstructions are provided by random complementary resampling masks. Experiments show a significant incoherent noise reduction, close to the theoretical improvement bound, resulting in image-contrast improvement. At the same time, we preserve the resolution of the unprocessed image.

A Bayesian analysis of inflationary primordial spectrum models using Planck data

Science.gov (United States)

Santos da Costa, Simony; Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson

2018-03-01

The current available Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data show an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations at large angular scales (l power is not explained by the minimal ΛCDM model, and one of the possible mechanisms explored in the literature to address this problem is the presence of features in the primordial power spectrum (PPS) motivated by the early universe physics. In this paper, we analyse a set of cutoff inflationary PPS models using a Bayesian model comparison approach in light of the latest CMB data from the Planck Collaboration. Our results show that the standard power-law parameterisation is preferred over all models considered in the analysis, which motivates the search for alternative explanations for the observed lack of power in the CMB anisotropy spectrum.

Cross-view gait recognition using joint Bayesian

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chao; Sun, Shouqian; Chen, Xiaoyu; Min, Xin

2017-07-01

Human gait, as a soft biometric, helps to recognize people by walking. To further improve the recognition performance under cross-view condition, we propose Joint Bayesian to model the view variance. We evaluated our prosed method with the largest population (OULP) dataset which makes our result reliable in a statically way. As a result, we confirmed our proposed method significantly outperformed state-of-the-art approaches for both identification and verification tasks. Finally, sensitivity analysis on the number of training subjects was conducted, we find Joint Bayesian could achieve competitive results even with a small subset of training subjects (100 subjects). For further comparison, experimental results, learning models, and test codes are available.

Narrowband interference parameterization for sparse Bayesian recovery

KAUST Repository

Ali, Anum

2015-09-11

This paper addresses the problem of narrowband interference (NBI) in SC-FDMA systems by using tools from compressed sensing and stochastic geometry. The proposed NBI cancellation scheme exploits the frequency domain sparsity of the unknown signal and adopts a Bayesian sparse recovery procedure. This is done by keeping a few randomly chosen sub-carriers data free to sense the NBI signal at the receiver. As Bayesian recovery requires knowledge of some NBI parameters (i.e., mean, variance and sparsity rate), we use tools from stochastic geometry to obtain analytical expressions for the required parameters. Our simulation results validate the analysis and depict suitability of the proposed recovery method for NBI mitigation. © 2015 IEEE.

Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazia Afreen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.

Bayesian analysis of energy and count rate data for detection of low count rate radioactive sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klumpp, John [Colorado State University, Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Molecular and Radiological Biosciences Building, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523 (United States)

2013-07-01

We propose a radiation detection system which generates its own discrete sampling distribution based on past measurements of background. The advantage to this approach is that it can take into account variations in background with respect to time, location, energy spectra, detector-specific characteristics (i.e. different efficiencies at different count rates and energies), etc. This would therefore be a 'machine learning' approach, in which the algorithm updates and improves its characterization of background over time. The system would have a 'learning mode,' in which it measures and analyzes background count rates, and a 'detection mode,' in which it compares measurements from an unknown source against its unique background distribution. By characterizing and accounting for variations in the background, general purpose radiation detectors can be improved with little or no increase in cost. The statistical and computational techniques to perform this kind of analysis have already been developed. The necessary signal analysis can be accomplished using existing Bayesian algorithms which account for multiple channels, multiple detectors, and multiple time intervals. Furthermore, Bayesian machine-learning techniques have already been developed which, with trivial modifications, can generate appropriate decision thresholds based on the comparison of new measurements against a nonparametric sampling distribution. (authors)

Online variational Bayesian filtering-based mobile target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-11-11

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of a naive Bayesians classifiers in assessing the supplier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mijailović Snežana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper considers the class of interactive knowledge based systems whose main purpose of making proposals and assisting customers in making decisions. The mathematical model provides a set of examples of learning about the delivered series of outflows from three suppliers, as well as an analysis of an illustrative example for assessing the supplier using a naive Bayesian classifier. The model was developed on the basis of the analysis of subjective probabilities, which are later revised with the help of new empirical information and Bayesian theorem on a posterior probability, i.e. combining of subjective and objective conditional probabilities in the choice of a reliable supplier.

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

Science.gov (United States)

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Evaluation of errors in prior mean and variance in the estimation of integrated circuit failure rates using Bayesian methods

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, B. C.

1972-01-01

The critical point of any Bayesian analysis concerns the choice and quantification of the prior information. The effects of prior data on a Bayesian analysis are studied. Comparisons of the maximum likelihood estimator, the Bayesian estimator, and the known failure rate are presented. The results of the many simulated trails are then analyzed to show the region of criticality for prior information being supplied to the Bayesian estimator. In particular, effects of prior mean and variance are determined as a function of the amount of test data available.

On the prior probabilities for two-stage Bayesian estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.

1992-01-01

The method of Bayesian inference is reexamined for its applicability and for the required underlying assumptions in obtaining and using prior probability estimates. Two different approaches are suggested to determine the first-stage priors in the two-stage Bayesian analysis which avoid certain assumptions required for other techniques. In the first scheme, the prior is obtained through a true frequency based distribution generated at selected intervals utilizing actual sampling of the failure rate distributions. The population variability distribution is generated as the weighed average of the frequency distributions. The second method is based on a non-parametric Bayesian approach using the Maximum Entropy Principle. Specific features such as integral properties or selected parameters of prior distributions may be obtained with minimal assumptions. It is indicated how various quantiles may also be generated with a least square technique

An image processing pipeline to detect and segment nuclei in muscle fiber microscopic images.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yanen; Xu, Xiaoyin; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Yaming; Xia, Shunren; Yang, Zhong

2014-08-01

Muscle fiber images play an important role in the medical diagnosis and treatment of many muscular diseases. The number of nuclei in skeletal muscle fiber images is a key bio-marker of the diagnosis of muscular dystrophy. In nuclei segmentation one primary challenge is to correctly separate the clustered nuclei. In this article, we developed an image processing pipeline to automatically detect, segment, and analyze nuclei in microscopic image of muscle fibers. The pipeline consists of image pre-processing, identification of isolated nuclei, identification and segmentation of clustered nuclei, and quantitative analysis. Nuclei are initially extracted from background by using local Otsu's threshold. Based on analysis of morphological features of the isolated nuclei, including their areas, compactness, and major axis lengths, a Bayesian network is trained and applied to identify isolated nuclei from clustered nuclei and artifacts in all the images. Then a two-step refined watershed algorithm is applied to segment clustered nuclei. After segmentation, the nuclei can be quantified for statistical analysis. Comparing the segmented results with those of manual analysis and an existing technique, we find that our proposed image processing pipeline achieves good performance with high accuracy and precision. The presented image processing pipeline can therefore help biologists increase their throughput and objectivity in analyzing large numbers of nuclei in muscle fiber images. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian inference in probabilistic risk assessment-The current state of the art

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Dana L.; Smith, Curtis L.

2009-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to sampling directly from the joint posterior distribution of aleatory model parameters have led to tremendous advances in Bayesian inference capability in a wide variety of fields, including probabilistic risk analysis. The advent of freely available software coupled with inexpensive computing power has catalyzed this advance. This paper examines where the risk assessment community is with respect to implementing modern computational-based Bayesian approaches to inference. Through a series of examples in different topical areas, it introduces salient concepts and illustrates the practical application of Bayesian inference via MCMC sampling to a variety of important problems

Bayesian models for astrophysical data using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

CERN Document Server

Hilbe, Joseph M; Ishida, Emille E O

2017-01-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

A Risk Analysis of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain Using Bayesian Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Jeffrey Ryan

The production of Molybdenum-99 (99Mo) is critical to the field of nuclear medicine, where it is utilized in roughly 80% of all nuclear imaging procedures. In October of 2016, the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Canada, which historically had the highest 99Mo production capability worldwide, ceased routine production and will be permanently shut down in 2018. This loss of capacity has led to widespread concern over the ability of the 99Mo supply chain and to meet demand. There is significant disagreement among analyses from trade groups, governments, and other researchers, predicting everything from no significant impact to major worldwide shortages. Using Bayesian networks, this research focused on modeling the 99Mo supply chain to quantify how a disrupting event, such as the unscheduled downtime of a reactor, will impact the global supply. This not only includes quantifying the probability of a shortage occurring, but also identifying which nodes in the supply chain introduce the most risk to better inform decision makers on where future facilities or other risk mitigation techniques should be applied.

Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

2016-01-01

Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

Ultrasonic image analysis and image-guided interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, J Alison; Navab, Nassir; Becher, H

2011-08-06

The fields of medical image analysis and computer-aided interventions deal with reducing the large volume of digital images (X-ray, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography and ultrasound (US)) to more meaningful clinical information using software algorithms. US is a core imaging modality employed in these areas, both in its own right and used in conjunction with the other imaging modalities. It is receiving increased interest owing to the recent introduction of three-dimensional US, significant improvements in US image quality, and better understanding of how to design algorithms which exploit the unique strengths and properties of this real-time imaging modality. This article reviews the current state of art in US image analysis and its application in image-guided interventions. The article concludes by giving a perspective from clinical cardiology which is one of the most advanced areas of clinical application of US image analysis and describing some probable future trends in this important area of ultrasonic imaging research.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oldroyd Giles ED

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time

Spiritual and ceremonial plants in North America: an assessment of Moerman's ethnobotanical database comparing Residual, Binomial, Bayesian and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Turi, Christina E; Murch, Susan J

2013-07-09

Ethnobotanical research and the study of plants used for rituals, ceremonies and to connect with the spirit world have led to the discovery of many novel psychoactive compounds such as nicotine, caffeine, and cocaine. In North America, spiritual and ceremonial uses of plants are well documented and can be accessed online via the University of Michigan's Native American Ethnobotany Database. The objective of the study was to compare Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) analyses of ritual, ceremonial and spiritual plants in Moerman's ethnobotanical database and to identify genera that may be good candidates for the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The database was queried with the following format "Family Name AND Ceremonial OR Spiritual" for 263 North American botanical families. Spiritual and ceremonial flora consisted of 86 families with 517 species belonging to 292 genera. Spiritual taxa were then grouped further into ceremonial medicines and items categories. Residual, Bayesian, Binomial and IDM analysis were performed to identify over and under-utilized families. The 4 statistical approaches were in good agreement when identifying under-utilized families but large families (>393 species) were underemphasized by Binomial, Bayesian and IDM approaches for over-utilization. Residual, Binomial, and IDM analysis identified similar families as over-utilized in the medium (92-392 species) and small (<92 species) classes. The families Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Ericacea, Pinaceae and Salicaceae were identified as significantly over-utilized as ceremonial medicines in medium and large sized families. Analysis of genera within the Apiaceae and Asteraceae suggest that the genus Ligusticum and Artemisia are good candidates for facilitating the discovery of novel psychoactive compounds. The 4 statistical approaches were not consistent in the selection of over-utilization of flora. Residual analysis revealed overall trends that were supported

Bayesian soft x-ray tomography and MHD mode analysis on HL-2A

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dong; Liu, Yi; Svensson, J.; Liu, Y. Q.; Song, X. M.; Yu, L. M.; Mao, Rui; Fu, B. Z.; Deng, Wei; Yuan, B. S.; Ji, X. Q.; Xu, Yuan; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Yan; Yang, Q. W.; Duan, X. R.; Liu, Yong; HL-2A Team

2016-03-01

A Bayesian based tomography method using so-called Gaussian processes (GPs) for the emission model has been applied to the soft x-ray (SXR) diagnostics on HL-2A tokamak. To improve the accuracy of reconstructions, the standard GP is extended to a non-stationary version so that different smoothness between the plasma center and the edge can be taken into account in the algorithm. The uncertainty in the reconstruction arising from measurement errors and incapability can be fully analyzed by the usage of Bayesian probability theory. In this work, the SXR reconstructions by this non-stationary Gaussian processes tomography (NSGPT) method have been compared with the equilibrium magnetic flux surfaces, generally achieving a satisfactory agreement in terms of both shape and position. In addition, singular-value-decomposition (SVD) and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) techniques have been applied for the analysis of SXR and magnetic diagnostics, in order to explore the spatial and temporal features of the saturated long-lived magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) instability induced by energetic particles during neutral beam injection (NBI) on HL-2A. The result shows that this ideal internal kink instability has a dominant m/n  =  1/1 mode structure along with a harmonics m/n  =  2/2, which are coupled near the q  =  1 surface with a rotation frequency of 12 kHz.

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis Model with Nonparametric Prior and Possible Nonignorable Missingness.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Niansheng; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Zhu, Hongtu

2017-12-01

Many psychological concepts are unobserved and usually represented as latent factors apprehended through multiple observed indicators. When multiple-subject multivariate time series data are available, dynamic factor analysis models with random effects offer one way of modeling patterns of within- and between-person variations by combining factor analysis and time series analysis at the factor level. Using the Dirichlet process (DP) as a nonparametric prior for individual-specific time series parameters further allows the distributional forms of these parameters to deviate from commonly imposed (e.g., normal or other symmetric) functional forms, arising as a result of these parameters' restricted ranges. Given the complexity of such models, a thorough sensitivity analysis is critical but computationally prohibitive. We propose a Bayesian local influence method that allows for simultaneous sensitivity analysis of multiple modeling components within a single fitting of the model of choice. Five illustrations and an empirical example are provided to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in facilitating the detection of outlying cases and common sources of misspecification in dynamic factor analysis models, as well as identification of modeling components that are sensitive to changes in the DP prior specification.

BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE PROCESS OF IDENTIFICATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATIVENESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Czyżewska

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Bayesian belief networks are applied in determining the most important factors of the innovativeness level of national economies. The paper is divided into two parts. The first presentsthe basic theory of Bayesian networks whereas in the second, the belief networks have been generated by an inhouse developed computer system called BeliefSEEKER which was implemented to generate the determinants influencing the innovativeness level of national economies.Qualitative analysis of the generated belief networks provided a way to define a set of the most important dimensions influencing the innovativeness level of economies and then the indicators that form these dimensions. It has been proven that Bayesian networks are very effective methods for multidimensional analysis and forming conclusions and recommendations regarding the strength of each innovative determinant influencing the overall performance of a country’s economy.

Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01

The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

Bus Route Design with a Bayesian Network Analysis of Bus Service Revenues

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Yi Liu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A Bayesian network is used to estimate revenues of bus services in consideration of the effect of bus travel demands, passenger transport distances, and so on. In this research, the area X in Beijing has been selected as the study area because of its relatively high bus travel demand and, on the contrary, unsatisfactory bus services. It is suggested that the proposed Bayesian network approach is able to rationally predict the probabilities of different revenues of various route services, from the perspectives of both satisfying passenger demand and decreasing bus operation cost. This way, the existing bus routes in the studied area can be optimized for their most probable high revenues.

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior

Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics by means of the Bayesian probability theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.

2004-01-01

Integrated data analysis (IDA) of fusion diagnostics is the combination of heterogeneous diagnostics to obtain validated physical results. Benefits from the integrated approach result from a systematic use of interdependencies; in that sense IDA optimizes the extraction of information from sets of different data. For that purpose IDA requires a systematic and formalized error analysis of all (statistical and systematic) uncertainties involved in each diagnostic. Bayesian probability theory allows for a systematic combination of all information entering the diagnostic model by considering all uncertainties of the measured data, the calibration measurements, and the physical model. Prior physics knowledge on model parameters can be included. Handling of systematic errors is provided. A central goal of the integration of redundant or complementary diagnostics is to provide information to resolve inconsistencies by exploiting interdependencies. A comparable analysis of sets of diagnostics (meta-diagnostics) is performed by combining statistical and systematical uncertainties with model parameters and model uncertainties. Diagnostics improvement and experimental optimization and design of meta-diagnostics will be discussed

An automated classification system for the differentiation of obstructive lung diseases based on the textural analysis of HRCT images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Seong Hoon; Seo, Joon Beom; Kim, Nam Kug; Lee, Young Kyung; Kim, Song Soo; Chae, Eun Jin; Lee, June Goo

2007-01-01

To develop an automated classification system for the differentiation of obstructive lung diseases based on the textural analysis of HRCT images, and to evaluate the accuracy and usefulness of the system. For textural analysis, histogram features, gradient features, run length encoding, and a co-occurrence matrix were employed. A Bayesian classifier was used for automated classification. The images (image number n = 256) were selected from the HRCT images obtained from 17 healthy subjects (n = 67), 26 patients with bronchiolitis obliterans (n = 70), 28 patients with mild centrilobular emphysema (n = 65), and 21 patients with panlobular emphysema or severe centrilobular emphysema (n = 63). An five-fold cross-validation method was used to assess the performance of the system. Class-specific sensitivities were analyzed and the overall accuracy of the system was assessed with kappa statistics. The sensitivity of the system for each class was as follows: normal lung 84.9%, bronchiolitis obliterans 83.8%, mild centrilobular emphysema 77.0%, and panlobular emphysema or severe centrilobular emphysema 95.8%. The overall performance for differentiating each disease and the normal lung was satisfactory with a kappa value of 0.779. An automated classification system for the differentiation between obstructive lung diseases based on the textural analysis of HRCT images was developed. The proposed system discriminates well between the various obstructive lung diseases and the normal lung

Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

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Xian Shan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential risk factors and consequences of the failure. Then construct the Bow-tie model, use the quantitative analysis of Bayesian network to find the weak links in the system, and make a prediction of the control measures to reduce the rate of the accident. In order to deal with the uncertainty existing in the determination of the probability of basic events, fuzzy logic method is used. Results of a case study show that the most likely causes of natural gas pipeline leakage occurrence are parties ignore signage, implicit signage, overload, and design defect of auxiliaries. Once the leakage occurs, it is most likely to result in fire and explosion. Corresponding measures taken on time will reduce the disaster degree of accidents to the least extent.

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

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Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

Applied Bayesian modelling

CERN Document Server

Congdon, Peter

2014-01-01

This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler

KAUST Repository

Jin, Ick Hoon

2013-01-01

Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the existence of intractable normalizing constants. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the issue of intractable normalizing constants encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency.

Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

EEG-fMRI Bayesian framework for neural activity estimation: a simulation study

Science.gov (United States)

Croce, Pierpaolo; Basti, Alessio; Marzetti, Laura; Zappasodi, Filippo; Del Gratta, Cosimo

2016-12-01

Objective. Due to the complementary nature of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and given the possibility of simultaneous acquisition, the joint data analysis can afford a better understanding of the underlying neural activity estimation. In this simulation study we want to show the benefit of the joint EEG-fMRI neural activity estimation in a Bayesian framework. Approach. We built a dynamic Bayesian framework in order to perform joint EEG-fMRI neural activity time course estimation. The neural activity is originated by a given brain area and detected by means of both measurement techniques. We have chosen a resting state neural activity situation to address the worst case in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio. To infer information by EEG and fMRI concurrently we used a tool belonging to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods: the particle filter (PF). Main results. First, despite a high computational cost, we showed the feasibility of such an approach. Second, we obtained an improvement in neural activity reconstruction when using both EEG and fMRI measurements. Significance. The proposed simulation shows the improvements in neural activity reconstruction with EEG-fMRI simultaneous data. The application of such an approach to real data allows a better comprehension of the neural dynamics.

Micronutrients in HIV: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George M Carter

Full Text Available Approximately 28.5 million people living with HIV are eligible for treatment (CD4<500, but currently have no access to antiretroviral therapy. Reduced serum level of micronutrients is common in HIV disease. Micronutrient supplementation (MNS may mitigate disease progression and mortality.We synthesized evidence on the effect of micronutrient supplementation on mortality and rate of disease progression in HIV disease.We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central, AMED and CINAHL databases through December 2014, without language restriction, for studies of greater than 3 micronutrients versus any or no comparator. We built a hierarchical Bayesian random effects model to synthesize results. Inferences are based on the posterior distribution of the population effects; posterior distributions were approximated by Markov chain Monte Carlo in OpenBugs.From 2166 initial references, we selected 49 studies for full review and identified eight reporting on disease progression and/or mortality. Bayesian synthesis of data from 2,249 adults in three studies estimated the relative risk of disease progression in subjects on MNS vs. control as 0.62 (95% credible interval, 0.37, 0.96. Median number needed to treat is 8.4 (4.8, 29.9 and the Bayes Factor 53.4. Based on data reporting on 4,095 adults reporting mortality in 7 randomized controlled studies, the RR was 0.84 (0.38, 1.85, NNT is 25 (4.3, ∞.MNS significantly and substantially slows disease progression in HIV+ adults not on ARV, and possibly reduces mortality. Micronutrient supplements are effective in reducing progression with a posterior probability of 97.9%. Considering MNS low cost and lack of adverse effects, MNS should be standard of care for HIV+ adults not yet on ARV.

Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

Science.gov (United States)

Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

2018-03-01

Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

2017-06-01

The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

Bayesian linear regression : different conjugate models and their (in)sensitivity to prior-data conflict

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Walter, G.M.; Augustin, Th.; Kneib, Thomas; Tutz, Gerhard

2010-01-01

The paper is concerned with Bayesian analysis under prior-data conflict, i.e. the situation when observed data are rather unexpected under the prior (and the sample size is not large enough to eliminate the influence of the prior). Two approaches for Bayesian linear regression modeling based on

Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wills Rachael A

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones, rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

Science.gov (United States)

Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the

2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Chiara D'Errico

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The liberalization of the Italian electricity market is a decade old. Within these last ten years, the supply side has been extensively analyzed, but not the demand side. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for estimation of the demand elasticity, based on Bayesian methods applied to the Italian electricity market. We used individual demand bids data in the day-ahead market in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX, for 2011, in order to construct an aggregate demand function at the hourly level. We took into account the existence of both elastic and inelastic bidders on the demand side. The empirical results show that elasticity varies significantly during the day and across periods of the year. In addition, the elasticity hourly distribution is clearly skewed and more so in the daily hours. The Bayesian method is a useful tool for policy-making, insofar as the regulator can start with a priori historical information on market behavior and estimate actual market outcomes in response to new policy actions.

Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

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Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

2014-11-01

Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

Image formation and image analysis in electron microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heel, M. van.

1981-01-01

This thesis covers various aspects of image formation and image analysis in electron microscopy. The imaging of relatively strong objects in partially coherent illumination, the coherence properties of thermionic emission sources and the detection of objects in quantum noise limited images are considered. IMAGIC, a fast, flexible and friendly image analysis software package is described. Intelligent averaging of molecular images is discussed. (C.F.)

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

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Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu [The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 East 24th Street, Stop C0200, Austin, TX 78712-1229 (United States); Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch [Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Römistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland)

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data

Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwirglmaier, Kilian; Straub, Daniel; Groth, Katrina M.

2017-01-01

reIn the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as a powerful tool for human reliability analysis (HRA), with multiple advantages over traditional HRA methods. In this paper we illustrate how BNs can be used to include additional, qualitative causal paths to provide traceability. The proposed framework provides the foundation to resolve several needs frequently expressed by the HRA community. First, the developed extended BN structure reflects the causal paths found in cognitive psychology literature, thereby addressing the need for causal traceability and strong scientific basis in HRA. Secondly, the use of node reduction algorithms allows the BN to be condensed to a level of detail at which quantification is as straightforward as the techniques used in existing HRA. We illustrate the framework by developing a BN version of the critical data misperceived crew failure mode in the IDHEAS HRA method, which is currently under development at the US NRC . We illustrate how the model could be quantified with a combination of expert-probabilities and information from operator performance databases such as SACADA. This paper lays the foundations necessary to expand the cognitive and quantitative foundations of HRA. - Highlights: • A framework for building traceable BNs for HRA, based on cognitive causal paths. • A qualitative BN structure, directly showing these causal paths is developed. • Node reduction algorithms are used for making the BN structure quantifiable. • BN quantified through expert estimates and observed data (Bayesian updating). • The framework is illustrated for a crew failure mode of IDHEAS.

Gamma prior distribution selection for Bayesian analysis of failure rate and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waler, R.A.; Johnson, M.M.; Waterman, M.S.; Martz, H.F. Jr.

1977-01-01

It is assumed that the phenomenon under study is such that the time-to-failure may be modeled by an exponential distribution with failure-rate parameter, lambda. For Bayesian analyses of the assumed model, the family of gamma distributions provides conjugate prior models for lambda. Thus, an experimenter needs to select a particular gamma model to conduct a Bayesian reliability analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology which can be used to translate engineering information, experience, and judgment into a choice of a gamma prior distribution. The proposed methodology assumes that the practicing engineer can provide percentile data relating to either the failure rate or the reliability of the phenomenon being investigated. For example, the methodology will select the gamma prior distribution which conveys an engineer's belief that the failure rate, lambda, simultaneously satisfies the probability statements, P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10 -3 ) = 0.50 and P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10 -5 ) = 0.05. That is, two percentiles provided by an engineer are used to determine a gamma prior model which agrees with the specified percentiles. For those engineers who prefer to specify reliability percentiles rather than the failure-rate percentiles illustrated above, one can use the induced negative-log gamma prior distribution which satisfies the probability statements, P(R(t 0 ) less than 0.99) = 0.50 and P(R(t 0 ) less than 0.99999) = 0.95 for some operating time t 0 . Also, the paper includes graphs for selected percentiles which assist an engineer in applying the methodology

A fast analysis method for non-invasive imaging of blood flow in individual cerebral arteries using vessel-encoded arterial spin labelling angiography

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Chappell, Michael A.; Okell, Thomas W.; Payne, Stephen J.; Jezzard, Peter; Woolrich, Mark W.

2012-01-01

Arterial spin labelling (ASL) MRI offers a non-invasive means to create blood-borne contrast in vivo for dynamic angiographic imaging. By spatial modulation of the ASL process it is possible to uniquely label individual arteries over a series of measurements, allowing each to be separately identified in the resulting angiographic images. This separation requires appropriate analysis for which a general Bayesian framework has previously been proposed. Here this framework is adapted for clinical dynamic angiographic imaging. This specifically addresses the issues of computational speed of the algorithm and the robustness required to deal with real patient data. An algorithm is proposed that can incorporate planning information about the arteries being imaged whilst adapting for subsequent patient movement. A fast maximum a posteriori solution is adopted and shown to be only marginally less accurate than Monte Carlo sampling under simulation. The final algorithm is demonstrated on in vivo data with analysis on a time scale of the order of 10 min, from both a healthy control and a patient with a vertebro-basilar occlusion. PMID:22322066

Careful with Those Priors: A Note on Bayesian Estimation in Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Theory Models

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Marcoulides, Katerina M.

2018-01-01

This study examined the use of Bayesian analysis methods for the estimation of item parameters in a two-parameter logistic item response theory model. Using simulated data under various design conditions with both informative and non-informative priors, the parameter recovery of Bayesian analysis methods were examined. Overall results showed that…

Bayesian methods in reliability

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Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

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Kerrie L Mengersen

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL, and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

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Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

2010-05-23

Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

[Bayesian approach for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

Berchialla, Paola; Gregori, Dario; Brunello, Franco; Veltri, Andrea; Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva

2009-01-01

The development of Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies is reviewed. Although many studies adopt a frequentist approach, several authors have advocated the use of Bayesian methods in health economics. Emphasis has been placed on the advantages of the Bayesian approach, which include: (i) the ability to make more intuitive and meaningful inferences; (ii) the ability to tackle complex problems, such as allowing for the inclusion of patients who generate no cost, thanks to the availability of powerful computational algorithms; (iii) the importance of a full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences. Much literature comparing the cost-effectiveness of two treatments is based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, new methods are arising with the purpose of decision making. These methods are based on a net benefits approach. In the present context, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have been pointed out to be intrinsically Bayesian in their formulation. They plot the probability of a positive net benefit against the threshold cost of a unit increase in efficacy.A case study is presented in order to illustrate the Bayesian statistics in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Emphasis is placed on the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Advantages and disadvantages of the method described in this paper have been compared to frequentist methods and discussed.

Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

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Itagaki, H. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H.; Ito, S. [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M.

1996-12-31

Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Itagaki, H [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H; Ito, S [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M

1997-12-31

Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

Bias correction and Bayesian analysis of aggregate counts in SAGE libraries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Briggs William M

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Tag-based techniques, such as SAGE, are commonly used to sample the mRNA pool of an organism's transcriptome. Incomplete digestion during the tag formation process may allow for multiple tags to be generated from a given mRNA transcript. The probability of forming a tag varies with its relative location. As a result, the observed tag counts represent a biased sample of the actual transcript pool. In SAGE this bias can be avoided by ignoring all but the 3' most tag but will discard a large fraction of the observed data. Taking this bias into account should allow more of the available data to be used leading to increased statistical power. Results Three new hierarchical models, which directly embed a model for the variation in tag formation probability, are proposed and their associated Bayesian inference algorithms are developed. These models may be applied to libraries at both the tag and aggregate level. Simulation experiments and analysis of real data are used to contrast the accuracy of the various methods. The consequences of tag formation bias are discussed in the context of testing differential expression. A description is given as to how these algorithms can be applied in that context. Conclusions Several Bayesian inference algorithms that account for tag formation effects are compared with the DPB algorithm providing clear evidence of superior performance. The accuracy of inferences when using a particular non-informative prior is found to depend on the expression level of a given gene. The multivariate nature of the approach easily allows both univariate and joint tests of differential expression. Calculations demonstrate the potential for false positive and negative findings due to variation in tag formation probabilities across samples when testing for differential expression.

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Genetic analysis of rare disorders: Bayesian estimation of twin concordance rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Hjelmborg, J.

2012-01-01

Twin concordance rates provide insight into the possibility of a genetic background for a disease. These concordance rates are usually estimated within a frequentistic framework. Here we take a Bayesian approach. For rare diseases, estimation methods based on asymptotic theory cannot be applied due

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegel, David S; Turner, Edwin L

2012-01-10

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth's history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe.

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation-based estimation of mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis via Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC).

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Deukwoo; Reis, Isildinha M

2015-08-12

When conducting a meta-analysis of a continuous outcome, estimated means and standard deviations from the selected studies are required in order to obtain an overall estimate of the mean effect and its confidence interval. If these quantities are not directly reported in the publications, they must be estimated from other reported summary statistics, such as the median, the minimum, the maximum, and quartiles. We propose a simulation-based estimation approach using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) technique for estimating mean and standard deviation based on various sets of summary statistics found in published studies. We conduct a simulation study to compare the proposed ABC method with the existing methods of Hozo et al. (2005), Bland (2015), and Wan et al. (2014). In the estimation of the standard deviation, our ABC method performs better than the other methods when data are generated from skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The corresponding average relative error (ARE) approaches zero as sample size increases. In data generated from the normal distribution, our ABC performs well. However, the Wan et al. method is best for estimating standard deviation under normal distribution. In the estimation of the mean, our ABC method is best regardless of assumed distribution. ABC is a flexible method for estimating the study-specific mean and standard deviation for meta-analysis, especially with underlying skewed or heavy-tailed distributions. The ABC method can be applied using other reported summary statistics such as the posterior mean and 95 % credible interval when Bayesian analysis has been employed.

Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists

CERN Document Server

Lynch, Scott M

2007-01-01

""Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists"" covers the complete process of Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.The first part of the book provides a detailed

Bayesian Prior Probability Distributions for Internal Dosimetry

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