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Sample records for bayesian belief networks

  1. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  2. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  3. Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

    2005-01-01

    The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

  4. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  5. MODELING INFORMATION SYSTEM AVAILABILITY BY USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semir Ibrahimović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24  7  365 basis. Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information system availability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P. (in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems – an expert based Bayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2, 369-394, 2012 based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from the financial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

  6. Prediction of new bioactive molecules using a Bayesian belief network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdo, Ammar; Leclère, Valérie; Jacques, Philippe; Salim, Naomie; Pupin, Maude

    2014-01-27

    Natural products and synthetic compounds are a valuable source of new small molecules leading to novel drugs to cure diseases. However identifying new biologically active small molecules is still a challenge. In this paper, we introduce a new activity prediction approach using Bayesian belief network for classification (BBNC). The roots of the network are the fragments composing a compound. The leaves are, on one side, the activities to predict and, on another side, the unknown compound. The activities are represented by sets of known compounds, and sets of inactive compounds are also used. We calculated a similarity between an unknown compound and each activity class. The more similar activity is assigned to the unknown compound. We applied this new approach on eight well-known data sets extracted from the literature and compared its performance to three classical machine learning algorithms. Experiments showed that BBNC provides interesting prediction rates (from 79% accuracy for high diverse data sets to 99% for low diverse ones) with a short time calculation. Experiments also showed that BBNC is particularly effective for homogeneous data sets but has been found to perform less well with structurally heterogeneous sets. However, it is important to stress that we believe that using several approaches whenever possible for activity prediction can often give a broader understanding of the data than using only one approach alone. Thus, BBNC is a useful addition to the computational chemist's toolbox.

  7. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  8. Bayesian Belief Networks Approach for Modeling Irrigation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriyas, S.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    Canal operators need information to manage water deliveries to irrigators. Short-term irrigation demand forecasts can potentially valuable information for a canal operator who must manage an on-demand system. Such forecasts could be generated by using information about the decision-making processes of irrigators. Bayesian models of irrigation behavior can provide insight into the likely criteria which farmers use to make irrigation decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to learn irrigation decision-making behavior of farmers and utilizes the resulting model to make forecasts of future irrigation decisions based on factor interaction and posterior probabilities. Models for studying irrigation behavior have been rarely explored in the past. The model discussed here was built from a combination of data about biotic, climatic, and edaphic conditions under which observed irrigation decisions were made. The paper includes a case study using data collected from the Canal B region of the Sevier River, near Delta, Utah. Alfalfa, barley and corn are the main crops of the location. The model has been tested with a portion of the data to affirm the model predictive capabilities. Irrigation rules were deduced in the process of learning and verified in the testing phase. It was found that most of the farmers used consistent rules throughout all years and across different types of crops. Soil moisture stress, which indicates the level of water available to the plant in the soil profile, was found to be one of the most significant likely driving forces for irrigation. Irrigations appeared to be triggered by a farmer's perception of soil stress, or by a perception of combined factors such as information about a neighbor irrigating or an apparent preference to irrigate on a weekend. Soil stress resulted in irrigation probabilities of 94.4% for alfalfa. With additional factors like weekend and irrigating when a neighbor irrigates, alfalfa irrigation

  9. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

    2006-01-01

    We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

  10. Geometry on the parameter space of the belief propagation algorithm on Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watanabe, Yodai [National Institute of Informatics, Research Organization of Information and Systems, 2-1-2 Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8430 (Japan); Laboratory for Mathematical Neuroscience, RIKEN Brain Science Institute, 2-1 Hirosawa, Wako-shi, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan)

    2006-01-30

    This Letter considers a geometrical structure on the parameter space of the belief propagation algorithm on Bayesian networks. The statistical manifold of posterior distributions is introduced, and the expression for the information metric on the manifold is derived. The expression is used to construct a cost function which can be regarded as a measure of the distance in the parameter space.

  11. Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

  12. Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

    2016-06-01

    This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; Binning, Philip John; McKnight, Ursula S.

    2016-01-01

    the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found...... to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models...... that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert...

  14. BAYES-HEP: Bayesian belief networks for estimation of human error probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karthick, M.; Senthil Kumar, C.; Paul, Robert T.

    2017-01-01

    Human errors contribute a significant portion of risk in safety critical applications and methods for estimation of human error probability have been a topic of research for over a decade. The scarce data available on human errors and large uncertainty involved in the prediction of human error probabilities make the task difficult. This paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for human error probability estimation in safety critical functions of a nuclear power plant. The developed model using BBN would help to estimate HEP with limited human intervention. A step-by-step illustration of the application of the method and subsequent evaluation is provided with a relevant case study and the model is expected to provide useful insights into risk assessment studies

  15. Can Bayesian Belief Networks help tackling conceptual model uncertainties in contaminated site risk assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; McKnight, Ursula S.

    different conceptual models may describe the same contaminated site equally well. In many cases, conceptual model uncertainty has been shown to be one of the dominant sources for uncertainty and is therefore essential to account for when quantifying uncertainties in risk assessments. We present here......A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is the formulation of a conceptual site model. The conceptual model is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modelling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. A conceptual model should...... a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach for evaluating the uncertainty in risk assessment of groundwater contamination from contaminated sites. The approach accounts for conceptual model uncertainty by considering multiple conceptual models, each of which represents an alternative interpretation of the site...

  16. A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Nanna I.; Binning, Philip J.; McKnight, Ursula S.; Tuxen, Nina; Bjerg, Poul L.; Troldborg, Mads

    2016-05-01

    A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is in the formulation of a conceptual site model (CSM). A CSM is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modeling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. The CSM should therefore identify the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert opinion at different knowledge levels. The developed BBNs combine data from desktop studies and initial site investigations with expert opinion to assess which of the CSMs are more likely to reflect the actual site conditions. The method is demonstrated on a Danish field site, contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Four different CSMs are developed by combining two contaminant source zone interpretations (presence or absence of a separate phase contamination) and two geological interpretations (fractured or unfractured clay till). The beliefs in each of the CSMs are assessed sequentially based on data from three investigation stages (a screening investigation, a more detailed investigation, and an expert consultation) to demonstrate that the belief can be updated as more information

  17. Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hänninen, Maria; Kujala, Pentti

    2012-01-01

    The influences of the variables in a Bayesian belief network model for estimating the role of human factors on ship collision probability in the Gulf of Finland are studied for discovering the variables with the largest influences and for examining the validity of the network. The change in the so-called causation probability is examined while observing each state of the network variables and by utilizing sensitivity and mutual information analyses. Changing course in an encounter situation is the most influential variable in the model, followed by variables such as the Officer of the Watch's action, situation assessment, danger detection, personal condition and incapacitation. The least influential variables are the other distractions on bridge, the bridge view, maintenance routines and the officer's fatigue. In general, the methods are found to agree on the order of the model variables although some disagreements arise due to slightly dissimilar approaches to the concept of variable influence. The relative values and the ranking of variables based on the values are discovered to be more valuable than the actual numerical values themselves. Although the most influential variables seem to be plausible, there are some discrepancies between the indicated influences in the model and literature. Thus, improvements are suggested to the network.

  18. Bayesian Belief Networks for predicting drinking water distribution system pipe breaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, Royce A.; Guikema, Seth D.; Henneman, Lucas

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to construct a knowledge model for pipe breaks in a water zone. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to model drinking water distribution system pipe breaks using BBNs. Development of expert systems such as BBNs for analyzing drinking water distribution system data is not only important for pipe break prediction, but is also a first step in preventing water loss and water quality deterioration through the application of machine learning techniques to facilitate data-based distribution system monitoring and asset management. Due to the difficulties in collecting, preparing, and managing drinking water distribution system data, most pipe break models can be classified as “statistical–physical” or “hypothesis-generating.” We develop the BBN with the hope of contributing to the “hypothesis-generating” class of models, while demonstrating the possibility that BBNs might also be used as “statistical–physical” models. Our model is learned from pipe breaks and covariate data from a mid-Atlantic United States (U.S.) drinking water distribution system network. BBN models are learned using a constraint-based method, a score-based method, and a hybrid method. Model evaluation is based on log-likelihood scoring. Sensitivity analysis using mutual information criterion is also reported. While our results indicate general agreement with prior results reported in pipe break modeling studies, they also suggest that it may be difficult to select among model alternatives. This model uncertainty may mean that more research is needed for understanding whether additional pipe break risk factors beyond age, break history, pipe material, and pipe diameter might be important for asset management planning. - Highlights: • We show Bayesian Networks for predictive and diagnostic management of water distribution systems. • Our model may enable system operators and managers to prioritize system

  19. Research on Factors Influencing Municipal Household Solid Waste Separate Collection: Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhujie Chu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Municipal household solid waste (MHSW has become a serious problem in China over the course of the last two decades, resulting in significant side effects to the environment. Therefore, effective management of MHSW has attracted wide attention from both researchers and practitioners. Separate collection, the first and crucial step to solve the MHSW problem, however, has not been thoroughly studied to date. An empirical survey has been conducted among 387 households in Harbin, China in this study. We use Bayesian Belief Networks model to determine the influencing factors on separate collection. Four types of factors are identified, including political, economic, social cultural and technological based on the PEST (political, economic, social and technological analytical method. In addition, we further analyze the influential power of different factors, based on the network structure and probability changes obtained by Netica software. Results indicate that technological dimension has the greatest impact on MHSW separate collection, followed by the political dimension and economic dimension; social cultural dimension impacts MHSW the least.

  20. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K.

    2013-10-01

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  1. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for rapid source term prediction. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Dedda, F.D.; Hansson, F.; Sjoekvist, S.; Sunnegaerd, K. [Lloyd' s Register Consulting AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2013-10-15

    The project presented in this report deals with a number of complex issues related to the development of a tool for rapid source term prediction (RASTEP), based on a plant model represented as a Bayesian belief network (BBN) and a source term module which is used for assigning relevant source terms to BBN end states. Thus, RASTEP uses a BBN to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, composition, timing, and release path of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. One major issue has been associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed, dealing with the challenge of making the source term determination flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. The potential for connecting RASTEP to a fast running source term prediction code has been explored, as well as alternative ways of improving the deterministic connections of the tool. As part of the investigation, a comparison of two deterministic severe accident analysis codes has been performed. A second important task has been to develop a general method where experts' beliefs can be included in a systematic way when defining the conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BBN. The proposed method includes expert judgement in a systematic way when defining the CPTs of a BBN. Using this iterative method results in a reliable BBN even though expert judgements, with their associated uncertainties, have been used. It also simplifies verification and validation of the considerable amounts of quantitative data included in a BBN. (Author)

  2. Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

  3. A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Predict Damages Caused by Disturbance Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Radl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In mountain forests of Central Europe, storm and snow breakage as well as bark beetles are the prevailing major disturbances. The complex interrelatedness between climate, disturbance agents, and forest management increases the need for an integrative approach explicitly addressing the multiple interactions between environmental changes, forest management, and disturbance agents to support forest resource managers in adaptive management. Empirical data with a comprehensive coverage for modelling the susceptibility of forests and the impact of disturbance agents are rare, thus making probabilistic models, based on expert knowledge, one of the few modelling approaches that are able to handle uncertainties due to the available information. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that has become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to considerations of risk and uncertainties. In this contribution, we present a development methodology to define and parameterize BBNs based on expert elicitation and approximation. We modelled storm and bark beetle disturbances agents, analyzed effects of the development methodology on model structure, and evaluated behavior with stand data from Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. forests in southern Austria. The high vulnerability of the case study area according to different disturbance agents makes it particularly suitable for testing the BBN model.

  4. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P.

    2012-09-01

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  5. The manual of strategic economic decision making using Bayesian belief networks to solve complex problems

    CERN Document Server

    Grover, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, & 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for naïve learners and professionals, with a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem - as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as ...

  6. Using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling for Rapid Source Term Prediction. RASTEP Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knochenhauer, M.; Swaling, V.H.; Alfheim, P. [Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2012-09-15

    The project is connected to the development of RASTEP, a computerized source term prediction tool aimed at providing a basis for improving off-site emergency management. RASTEP uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to model severe accident progression in a nuclear power plant in combination with pre-calculated source terms (i.e., amount, timing, and pathway of released radio-nuclides). The output is a set of possible source terms with associated probabilities. In the NKS project, a number of complex issues associated with the integration of probabilistic and deterministic analyses are addressed. This includes issues related to the method for estimating source terms, signal validation, and sensitivity analysis. One major task within Phase 1 of the project addressed the problem of how to make the source term module flexible enough to give reliable and valid output throughout the accident scenario. Of the alternatives evaluated, it is recommended that RASTEP is connected to a fast running source term prediction code, e.g., MARS, with a possibility of updating source terms based on real-time observations. (Author)

  7. Bayesian Belief Network to support conflict analysis for groundwater protection: the case of the Apulia region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Raffaele; D'Agostino, Daniela; Apollonio, Ciro; Lamaddalena, Nicola; Vurro, Michele

    2013-01-30

    Water resource management is often characterized by conflicts, as a result of the heterogeneity of interests associated with a shared resource. Many water conflicts arise on a global scale and, in particular, an increasing level of conflicts can be observed in the Mediterranean basin, characterized by water scarcity. In the present work, in order to assist the conflict analysis process, and thus outline a proper groundwater management, stakeholders were involved in the process and suitable tools were used in a Mediterranean area (the Apulia region, in Italy). In particular, this paper seeks to elicit and structure farmers' mental models influencing their decision over the main water source for irrigation. The more crucial groundwater is for farmers' objectives, the more controversial is the groundwater protection strategy. Bayesian Belief Networks were developed to simulate farmers' behavior with regard to groundwater management and to assess the impacts of protection strategy. These results have been used to calculate the conflict degree in the study area, derived from the introduction of policies for the reduction of groundwater exploitation for irrigation purposes. The less acceptable the policy is, the more likely it is that conflict will develop between farmers and the Regional Authority. The results of conflict analysis were also used to contribute to the debate concerning potential conflict mitigation measures. The approach adopted in this work has been discussed with a number of experts in groundwater management policies and irrigation management, and its main strengths and weaknesses have been identified. Increasing awareness of the existence of potential conflicts and the need to deal with them can be seen as an interesting initial shift in the Apulia region's water management regime, which is still grounded in merely technical approaches. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mkrtchyan, L.; Podofillini, L.; Dang, V.N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) in risk analysis (and in particular Human Reliability Analysis, HRA) is fostered by a number of features, attractive in fields with shortage of data and consequent reliance on subjective judgments: the intuitive graphical representation, the possibility of combining diverse sources of information, the use the probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainties. In HRA, BBN applications are steadily increasing, each emphasizing a different BBN feature or a different HRA aspect to improve. This paper aims at a critical review of these features as well as at suggesting research needs. Five groups of BBN applications are analysed: modelling of organizational factors, analysis of the relationships among failure influencing factors, BBN-based extensions of existing HRA methods, dependency assessment among human failure events, assessment of situation awareness. Further, the paper analyses the process for building BBNs and in particular how expert judgment is used in the assessment of the BBN conditional probability distributions. The gaps identified in the review suggest the need for establishing more systematic frameworks to integrate the different sources of information relevant for HRA (cognitive models, empirical data, and expert judgment) and to investigate algorithms to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment. - Highlights: • We analyze BBN uses for HRA applications; but some conclusions can be generalized. • Special review focus on BBN building approaches, key for model acceptance. • Gaps relate to the transparency of the BBN building and quantification phases. • Need for more systematic framework to integrate different sources of information. • Need of ways to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment

  9. Using Bayesian Belief Networks To Assess Volcano State from Multiple Monitoring Timeseries And Other Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2013-04-01

    When volcanoes exhibit unrest or become eruptively active, science-based decision support invariably is sought by civil authorities. Evidence available to scientists about a volcano's internal state is usually indirect, secondary or very nebulous.Advancement of volcano monitoring technology in recent decades has increased the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Monitoring timeseries may be interpreted in real time by observatory staff and are often later subjected to further analytic scrutiny by the research community at large. With increasing variety and resolution of data, interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence has become increasingly complex. In practice, interpretation of many timeseries involves familiarity with the idiosyncracies of the volcano, the monitoring techniques, the configuration of the recording instrumentation, observations from other datasets, and so on. Assimilation of this knowledge is necessary in order to select and apply the appropriate statistical techniques required to extract the required information. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. The formulation is usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic timeseries, the certainty with which inferences may be drawn, and how they can be updated dynamically. Such approaches provide a route to developing analytical interface(s) between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard

  10. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  11. Stakeholder perceptions of soil managements in the Canyoles watershed. A Bayesian Belief Network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burguet Marimón, Maria; Quinn, Claire; Stringer, Lindsay; Cerdà, Artemi

    2017-04-01

    The fate of the management and use of land is the result of economic, social and political factors (Tengberg et al., 2016). Stakeholder perceptions are relevant in understanding land management (Marques et al., 2015; Teshome et al., 2016) as perceptions can shape behaviours and actions. In the Canyoles River watershed (Eastern Spain), rainfed agriculture has been replaced by traditional irrigation systems at its valley bottom, and by drip irrigation on its slopes. The new irrigation systems in hilly citrus orchards, along with intensive farming, use of herbicides and high fertilization, are causing high erosion and land degradation rates due to the lack of vegetation cover, soil compaction and the loss of organic matter. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are defined as a 'graphical tool for building decision support systems to help make decisions under uncertain conditions' (Cain, 2001). In this work, BBNs were used to incorporate the issues and objectives identified by stakeholders during interviews about their perceptions of different soil management practices in the Canyoles watershed. BBNs are appropriate for the modeling of geospatial data which can contain different kinds of uncertainties due to positional error, feature classification error, resolution, attribute error, data completeness, currency, and logical consistency, and can integrate qualitative and quantitative data. Our stakeholders were farmers, politicians (especially the mayors of the nearby towns), managers, farm employees and technicians. The questions asked to the stakeholders were related to their concern in keeping the farm active and profitable, the changes in the price of the farm products, the price of the fertilizers and tractors and if soil erosion is a key issue in their farms Preliminary results from the interviews performed with the stakeholders suggest that there is still a strong refusal to the use of different cover crops, as well as to the change in the tillage systems. Farmers do

  12. Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2015-01-01

    One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly

  13. Uncertainty measurement with belief entropy on interference effect in Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Zhiming; Yang, Lin; Jiang, Wen

    2017-01-01

    Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory, in which the prisoner's dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people's behavior violated the Sure Thing Principle in such games. Classic probability methodologies have difficulty explaining the underlying mechanisms of people's behavior. In this paper, a novel quantum-like Bayesian Network was proposed to accommodate the paradoxical phenomenon. The special ne...

  14. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  15. On the Relevance of Using Bayesian Belief Networks in Wireless Sensor Networks Situation Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Zennaro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Achieving situation recognition in ubiquitous sensor networks (USNs is an important issue that has been poorly addressed by both the research and practitioner communities. This paper describes some steps taken to address this issue by effecting USN middleware intelligence using an emerging situation awareness (ESA technology. We propose a situation recognition framework where temporal probabilistic reasoning is used to derive and emerge situation awareness in ubiquitous sensor networks. Using data collected from an outdoor environment monitoring in the city of Cape Town, we illustrate the use of the ESA technology in terms of sensor system operating conditions and environmental situation recognition.

  16. Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

  17. A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

    2015-04-01

    It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network

  18. On the application of Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Belief Network to seismic noise at Las Canadas Caldera, Tenerife, Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quintero Oliveros, Anggi [Dipartimento di Georisorse e Territorio, Universita di Udine (Italy); Departamento de Ciencias de La Tierra, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas (Venezuela); Carniel, Roberto [Dipartimento di Georisorse e Territorio, Universita di Udine (Italy)], E-mail: roberto.carniel@uniud.it; Tarraga, Marta [Departamento de Volcanologia, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Aspinall, Willy [Aspinall and Associates, 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield, Bucks (United Kingdom)

    2008-08-15

    The Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex situated in Tenerife Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has recently shown signs of unrest, long after its last eruptive episode at Chinyero in 1909, and the last explosive episode which happened at Montana Blanca, 2000 years ago. In this paper we study the seismicity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex recorded between May and December 2004, in order to show the applicability of tools such as Hidden Markov Models and Bayesian Belief Networks which can be used to build a structure for evaluating the probability of given eruptive or volcano-related scenarios. The results support the existence of a bidirectional relationship between volcano-tectonic events and the background seismic noise - in particular its frequency content. This in turn suggests that the two phenomena can be related to one unique process influencing their generation.

  19. On the application of Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Belief Network to seismic noise at Las Canadas Caldera, Tenerife, Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintero Oliveros, Anggi; Carniel, Roberto; Tarraga, Marta; Aspinall, Willy

    2008-01-01

    The Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex situated in Tenerife Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has recently shown signs of unrest, long after its last eruptive episode at Chinyero in 1909, and the last explosive episode which happened at Montana Blanca, 2000 years ago. In this paper we study the seismicity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex recorded between May and December 2004, in order to show the applicability of tools such as Hidden Markov Models and Bayesian Belief Networks which can be used to build a structure for evaluating the probability of given eruptive or volcano-related scenarios. The results support the existence of a bidirectional relationship between volcano-tectonic events and the background seismic noise - in particular its frequency content. This in turn suggests that the two phenomena can be related to one unique process influencing their generation

  20. Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

  1. A Study on Quantitative Assessment of Design Specification of Reactor Protection System Software Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Park, G. Y.; Kwon, K. C.

    2007-02-01

    This report propose a method that can produce quantitative reliability of safety-critical software for PSA by making use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). BBN has generally been used to model the uncertain system in many research fields. The proposed method was constructed by utilizing BBN that can combine the qualitative and the quantitative evidence relevant to the reliability of safety-critical software, and then can infer a conclusion in a formal and a quantitative way. A case study was also carried out with the proposed method to assess the quality of software design specification of safety-critical software that will be embedded in reactor protection system. The V and V results of the software were used as inputs for the BBN model. The calculation results of the BBN model showed that its conclusion is mostly equivalent to those of the V and V expert for a given input data set. The method and the results of the case study will be utilized in PSA of NPP. The method also can support the V and V expert's decision making process in controlling further V and V activities

  2. Estimation of Remained defects in a Safety-Critical Software using Bayesian Belief Network of Software Development Life Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea Jung

    2015-01-01

    Some researchers recognized Bayesian belief network (BBN) method to be a promising method of quantifying software reliability. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) comprehensively reviewed various quantitative software reliability methods to identify the most promising methods for use in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) of digital systems of NPPs against a set of the most desirable characteristics developed therein. BBNs are recognized as a promising way of quantifying software reliability and are useful for integrating many aspects of software engineering and quality assurance. The method explicitly incorporates important factors relevant to reliability, such as the quality of the developer, the development process, problem complexity, testing effort, and the operation environment. In this work, a BBN model was developed to estimate the number of remained defects in a safety-critical software based on the quality evaluation of software development life cycle (SDLC). Even though a number of software reliability evaluation methods exist, none of them can be applicable to the safety-critical software in an NPP because software quality in terms of PDF is required for the PSA

  3. Advancing Dose-Response Assessment Methods for Environmental Regulatory Impact Analysis: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach Applied to Inorganic Arsenic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabinski, Joseph W; Garcia-Vargas, Gonzalo; Rubio-Andrade, Marisela; Fry, Rebecca C; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-05-10

    Dose-response functions used in regulatory risk assessment are based on studies of whole organisms and fail to incorporate genetic and metabolomic data. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) could provide a powerful framework for incorporating such data, but no prior research has examined this possibility. To address this gap, we develop a BBN-based model predicting birthweight at gestational age from arsenic exposure via drinking water and maternal metabolic indicators using a cohort of 200 pregnant women from an arsenic-endemic region of Mexico. We compare BBN predictions to those of prevailing slope-factor and reference-dose approaches. The BBN outperforms prevailing approaches in balancing false-positive and false-negative rates. Whereas the slope-factor approach had 2% sensitivity and 99% specificity and the reference-dose approach had 100% sensitivity and 0% specificity, the BBN's sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 30%, respectively. BBNs offer a promising opportunity to advance health risk assessment by incorporating modern genetic and metabolomic data.

  4. Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, Marcelo Ramos; Maturana, Marcos Coelho

    2013-01-01

    During the last three decades, several techniques have been developed for the quantitative study of human reliability. In the 1980s, techniques were developed to model systems by means of binary trees, which did not allow for the representation of the context in which human actions occur. Thus, these techniques cannot model the representation of individuals, their interrelationships, and the dynamics of a system. These issues make the improvement of methods for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) a pressing need. To eliminate or at least attenuate these limitations, some authors have proposed modeling systems using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). The application of these tools is expected to address many of the deficiencies in current approaches to modeling human actions with binary trees. This paper presents a methodology based on BBN for analyzing human reliability and applies this method to the operation of an oil tanker, focusing on the risk of collision accidents. The obtained model was used to determine the most likely sequence of hazardous events and thus isolate critical activities in the operation of the ship to study Internal Factors (IFs), Skills, and Management and Organizational Factors (MOFs) that should receive more attention for risk reduction.

  5. Estimation of total Effort and Effort Elapsed in Each Step of Software Development Using Optimal Bayesian Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Zare Baghiabad

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy in estimating the needed effort for software development caused software effort estimation to be a challenging issue. Beside estimation of total effort, determining the effort elapsed in each software development step is very important because any mistakes in enterprise resource planning can lead to project failure. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network was proposed based on effective components and software development process. In this model, the feedback loops are considered between development steps provided that the return rates are different for each project. Different return rates help us determine the percentages of the elapsed effort in each software development step, distinctively. Moreover, the error measurement resulted from optimized effort estimation and the optimal coefficients to modify the model are sought. The results of the comparison between the proposed model and other models showed that the model has the capability to highly accurately estimate the total effort (with the marginal error of about 0.114 and to estimate the effort elapsed in each software development step.

  6. A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trucco, P.; Cagno, E.; Ruggeri, F.; Grande, O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational and organisational conditions. The linkage can be exploited in different ways, especially to support identification and evaluation of risk control options also at the organisational level. Conditional probabilities for the BBN have been estimated by means of experts' judgments, collected from an international panel of different European countries. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out over the model to identify configurations of the MTS leading to a significant reduction of accident probability during the operation of the HSC

  7. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  8. A Study on the Quantitative Assessment Method of Software Requirement Documents Using Software Engineering Measures and Bayesian Belief Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Kang, Hyun Gook; Park, Ki Hong; Kwon, Kee Choon; Chang, Seung Cheol

    2005-01-01

    One of the major challenges in using the digital systems in a NPP is the reliability estimation of safety critical software embedded in the digital safety systems. Precise quantitative assessment of the reliability of safety critical software is nearly impossible, since many of the aspects to be considered are of qualitative nature and not directly measurable, but they have to be estimated for a practical use. Therefore an expert's judgment plays an important role in estimating the reliability of the software embedded in safety-critical systems in practice, because they can deal with all the diverse evidence relevant to the reliability and can perform an inference based on the evidence. But, in general, the experts' way of combining the diverse evidence and performing an inference is usually informal and qualitative, which is hard to discuss and will eventually lead to a debate about the conclusion. We have been carrying out research on a quantitative assessment of the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). BBN has been proven to be a useful modeling formalism because a user can represent a complex set of events and relationships in a fashion that can easily be interpreted by others. In the previous works we have assessed a software requirement specification of a reactor protection system by using our BBN-based assessment model. The BBN model mainly employed an expert's subjective probabilities as inputs. In the process of assessing the software requirement documents we found out that the BBN model was excessively dependent on experts' subjective judgments in a large part. Therefore, to overcome the weakness of our methodology we employed conventional software engineering measures into the BBN model as shown in this paper. The quantitative relationship between the conventional software measures and the reliability of software were not identified well in the past. Then recently there appeared a few researches on a ranking of

  9. A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Tierz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic water-sediment flows, commonly known as lahars, can often pose a higher threat to population and infrastructure than primary volcanic hazardous processes such as tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs. Lahars are volcaniclastic flows of water, volcanic debris and entrained sediments that can travel long distances from their source, causing severe damage by impact and burial. Lahars are frequently triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall occurring after explosive eruptions, and their occurrence depends on numerous factors including the spatio-temporal rainfall characteristics, the spatial distribution and hydraulic properties of the tephra deposit, and the pre- and post-eruption topography. Modeling (and forecasting such a complex system requires the quantification of aleatory variability in the lahar triggering and propagation. To fulfill this goal, we develop a novel framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment, based on coupling a versatile probabilistic model for lahar triggering (a Bayesian Belief Network: Multihaz with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow. Multihaz allows us to estimate the probability of lahars of different volumes occurring by merging varied information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and, crucially, probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and PDCs. LaharFlow propagates the aleatory variability modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars. We apply our framework to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy because: (1 the volcano is strongly lahar-prone based on its previous activity, (2 there are many possible source areas for lahars, and (3 there is high density of population nearby. Our results indicate that the size of the eruption preceding the lahar occurrence and the spatial distribution of tephra accumulation have a paramount role in the lahar

  10. A method for risk-informed safety significance categorization using the analytic hierarchy process and bayesian belief networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    A risk-informed safety significance categorization (RISSC) is to categorize structures, systems, or components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) into two or more groups, according to their safety significance using both probabilistic and deterministic insights. In the conventional methods for the RISSC, the SSCs are quantitatively categorized according to their importance measures for the initial categorization. The final decisions (categorizations) of SSCs, however, are qualitatively made by an expert panel through discussions and adjustments of opinions by using the probabilistic insights compiled in the initial categorization process and combining the probabilistic insights with the deterministic insights. Therefore, owing to the qualitative and linear decision-making process, the conventional methods have the demerits as follows: (1) they are very costly in terms of time and labor, (2) it is not easy to reach the final decision, when the opinions of the experts are in conflict and (3) they have an overlapping process due to the linear paradigm (the categorization is performed twice - first, by the engineers who propose the method, and second, by the expert panel). In this work, a method for RISSC using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and bayesian belief networks (BBN) is proposed to overcome the demerits of the conventional methods and to effectively arrive at a final decision (or categorization). By using the AHP and BBN, the expert panel takes part in the early stage of the categorization (that is, the quantification process) and the safety significance based on both probabilistic and deterministic insights is quantified. According to that safety significance, SSCs are quantitatively categorized into three categories such as high safety significant category (Hi), potentially safety significant category (Po), or low safety significant category (Lo). The proposed method was applied to the components such as CC-V073, CV-V530, and SI-V644 in Ulchin Unit

  11. Top-down feedback in an HMAX-like cortical model of object perception based on hierarchical Bayesian networks and belief propagation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Dura-Bernal

    Full Text Available Hierarchical generative models, such as Bayesian networks, and belief propagation have been shown to provide a theoretical framework that can account for perceptual processes, including feedforward recognition and feedback modulation. The framework explains both psychophysical and physiological experimental data and maps well onto the hierarchical distributed cortical anatomy. However, the complexity required to model cortical processes makes inference, even using approximate methods, very computationally expensive. Thus, existing object perception models based on this approach are typically limited to tree-structured networks with no loops, use small toy examples or fail to account for certain perceptual aspects such as invariance to transformations or feedback reconstruction. In this study we develop a Bayesian network with an architecture similar to that of HMAX, a biologically-inspired hierarchical model of object recognition, and use loopy belief propagation to approximate the model operations (selectivity and invariance. Crucially, the resulting Bayesian network extends the functionality of HMAX by including top-down recursive feedback. Thus, the proposed model not only achieves successful feedforward recognition invariant to noise, occlusions, and changes in position and size, but is also able to reproduce modulatory effects such as illusory contour completion and attention. Our novel and rigorous methodology covers key aspects such as learning using a layerwise greedy algorithm, combining feedback information from multiple parents and reducing the number of operations required. Overall, this work extends an established model of object recognition to include high-level feedback modulation, based on state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches. The methodology employed, consistent with evidence from the visual cortex, can be potentially generalized to build models of hierarchical perceptual organization that include top-down and bottom

  12. An ecosystem service approach to support integrated pond management: a case study using Bayesian belief networks--highlighting opportunities and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landuyt, Dries; Lemmens, Pieter; D'hondt, Rob; Broekx, Steven; Liekens, Inge; De Bie, Tom; Declerck, Steven A J; De Meester, Luc; Goethals, Peter L M

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater ponds deliver a broad range of ecosystem services (ESS). Taking into account this broad range of services to attain cost-effective ESS delivery is an important challenge facing integrated pond management. To assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ESS approach to support decisions in integrated pond management, we applied it on a small case study in Flanders, Belgium. A Bayesian belief network model was developed to assess ESS delivery under three alternative pond management scenarios: intensive fish farming (IFF), extensive fish farming (EFF) and nature conservation management (NCM). A probabilistic cost-benefit analysis was performed that includes both costs associated with pond management practices and benefits associated with ESS delivery. Whether or not a particular ESS is included in the analysis affects the identification of the most preferable management scenario by the model. Assessing the delivery of a more complete set of ecosystem services tends to shift the results away from intensive management to more biodiversity-oriented management scenarios. The proposed methodology illustrates the potential of Bayesian belief networks. BBNs facilitate knowledge integration and their modular nature encourages future model expansion to more encompassing sets of services. Yet, we also illustrate the key weaknesses of such exercises, being that the choice whether or not to include a particular ecosystem service may determine the suggested optimal management practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  14. Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential management plans for Baltic salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levontin, Polina; Kulmala, Soile; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. The use of a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries is demonstrated. The analysis draws on several scientific...... studies: a biological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries, an evaluation of recreational fisheries, and a sociological study aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. A Bayesian belief network is used...... is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success. Such analyses, relying on prior knowledge, can forewarn of the consequences of management choices before they are implemented...

  15. Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to complex and equivocal evaluation guidelines provided a set of clear, intuitive decision-aiding tools that greatly aided the species evaluation and conservation process.

  16. Analysis of regional scale risk to whirling disease in populations of Colorado and Rio Grande cutthroat trout using Bayesian belief network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolb Ayre, Kimberley; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.

  17. Application of a Bayesian belief network for assessing the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw and implications for greenhouse gas production and climate feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, K.L.; McLaughlin, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Permafrost areas are subject to accelerated rates of climate change leading to thaw. • Thaw will increase decomposition rates, exacerbating climate feedback. • We present a Bayesian belief network as a tool to examine interacting factors. • Organic soil (Hudson Plain region) and mineral soil (Arctic region) are contrasted. • Hudson Plain has contributed more to climate feedback than Arctic, but gap closing. - Abstract: Permafrost affected soils are an important component of the Boreal, Subarctic, and Arctic ecosystems of Canada. These areas are undergoing accelerated rates of climate change and have been identified as being at high risk for thaw. Thaw will expose soil to warmer conditions that support increased decomposition rates, which in turn will affect short- and long-term carbon storage capacity and result in feedback to global climate. We present a tool in the form of a Bayesian belief network influence diagram that will allow policymakers and managers to understand how interacting factors contribute to permafrost thaw and resulting effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) production and climate feedback. A theoretical example of expected responses from an organic soil typical of the Hudson Plain region and a mineral soil typical in the Arctic region demonstrate variability in responses across different combinations of climate and soil conditions within Canada. Based on the network results, the Arctic has historically had higher probability of thaw, but the Hudson Plain has had higher probability of producing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Under past and current climate conditions, the Hudson Plain has, on a per unit area basis, contributed more to climate feedback than the Arctic. However, the gap in contribution between the two regions is likely to decrease as thaw progresses more rapidly in the Arctic than Hudson Plain region, resulting in strong positive feedback to climate warming from both regions. The flexible framework

  18. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  19. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  20. Bayesian networks and boundedly rational expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Ran Spiegler

    2014-01-01

    I present a framework for analyzing decision makers with an imperfect understanding of their environment's correlation structure. The framework borrows the tool of "Bayesian networks", which is ubiquitous in statistics and artificial intelligence. In the model, a decision maker faces an objective multivariate probability distribution (his own action is one of the random variables). He is characterized by a directed acyclic graph over the set of random variables. His subjective belief filters ...

  1. [Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Wonjung; Seomun, Gyeongae

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

  2. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  3. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  4. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  5. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

  6. Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Margaritis, Dimitris

    1999-01-01

    .... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

  7. Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

    2017-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

  8. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

  9. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

  10. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  11. Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

  12. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

  13. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  14. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  15. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  16. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  17. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  18. Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

  19. A Bayesian Framework for False Belief Reasoning in Children: A Rational Integration of Theory-Theory and Simulation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asakura, Nobuhiko; Inui, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    Two apparently contrasting theories have been proposed to account for the development of children's theory of mind (ToM): theory-theory and simulation theory. We present a Bayesian framework that rationally integrates both theories for false belief reasoning. This framework exploits two internal models for predicting the belief states of others: one of self and one of others. These internal models are responsible for simulation-based and theory-based reasoning, respectively. The framework further takes into account empirical studies of a developmental ToM scale (e.g., Wellman and Liu, 2004): developmental progressions of various mental state understandings leading up to false belief understanding. By representing the internal models and their interactions as a causal Bayesian network, we formalize the model of children's false belief reasoning as probabilistic computations on the Bayesian network. This model probabilistically weighs and combines the two internal models and predicts children's false belief ability as a multiplicative effect of their early-developed abilities to understand the mental concepts of diverse beliefs and knowledge access. Specifically, the model predicts that children's proportion of correct responses on a false belief task can be closely approximated as the product of their proportions correct on the diverse belief and knowledge access tasks. To validate this prediction, we illustrate that our model provides good fits to a variety of ToM scale data for preschool children. We discuss the implications and extensions of our model for a deeper understanding of developmental progressions of children's ToM abilities.

  20. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2000-01-01

    We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

  2. A Belief Network Decision Support Method Applied to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Staker, R

    2003-01-01

    This report demonstrates the application of a Bayesian Belief Network decision support method for Force Level Systems Engineering to a collection of projects related to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management...

  3. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  4. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  5. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  6. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  7. Continuous/discrete non parametric Bayesian belief nets with UNICORN and UNINET

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cooke, R.M.; Kurowicka, D.; Hanea, A.M.; Morales Napoles, O.; Ababei, D.A.; Ale, B.J.M.; Roelen, A.

    2007-01-01

    Hanea et al. (2006) presented a method for quantifying and computing continuous/discrete non parametric Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN). Influences are represented as conditional rank correlations, and the joint normal copula enables rapid sampling and conditionalization. Further mathematical background

  8. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  9. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  10. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  11. Centralized Bayesian reliability modelling with sensor networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 5 (2013), s. 471-482 ISSN 1387-3954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7D12004 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV-265315 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Sensor network * Reliability Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.984, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/dedecius-0392551.pdf

  12. Characteristic imsets for learning Bayesian network structure

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2012), s. 1336-1349 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * essential graph * standard imset * characteristic imset * LP relaxation of a polytope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.729, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-0382596.pdf

  13. Estimating dependability of programmable systems using bayesian belief nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Dahll, Gustav

    2000-05-01

    The research programme at the Halden Project on software safety assessment is augmented through a joint project with Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace AS and Det Norske Veritas. The objective of this project is to investigate the possibility to combine the Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) methodology with a software safety standard. The report discusses software safety standards in general, with respect to how they can be used to measure software safety. The possibility to transfer the requirements of a software safety standard into a BBN is also investigated. The aim is to utilise the BBN methodology and associated tools, by transferring the software safety measurement into a probabilistic quantity. In this way software can be included in a total probabilistic safety analysis. This project was performed by applying the method for an evaluation of a real, safety related programmable system which was developed according to the avionic standard DO-178B. The test case, the standard, and the BBN methodology are shortly described. This is followed by a description of the construction of the BBN used in this project. This includes the topology of the BBN, the elicitation of probabilities and the making of observations. Based on this a variety of computations are made using the SERENE methodology and the HUGIN tool. Observations and conclusions are made on the basis of the findings from this process. This report should be considered as a progress report in a more long-term activity on the use of BBNs as support for safety assessment of programmable systems. (Author). 23 refs., 9 figs., tabs

  14. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  15. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  16. Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

    2015-01-01

    The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

  17. Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

    2016-01-01

    We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...

  18. Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quackenbush John

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results. Results Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data. Conclusion The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.

  19. A Bayesian Network Schema for Lessening Database Inference

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, LiWu; Moskowitz, Ira S

    2001-01-01

    .... The authors introduce a formal schema for database inference analysis, based upon a Bayesian network structure, which identifies critical parameters involved in the inference problem and represents...

  20. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    (domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  1. Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Biased Beliefs and Distributional Other-Regarding Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen Weesie

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between an actor’s beliefs about others’ other-regarding (social preferences and her own other-regarding preferences, using an “avant-garde” hierarchical Bayesian method. We estimate two distributional other-regarding preference parameters, α and β, of actors using incentivized choice data in binary Dictator Games. Simultaneously, we estimate the distribution of actors’ beliefs about others α and β, conditional on actors’ own α and β, with incentivized belief elicitation. We demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian method compared to it’s hierarchical frequentist counterparts. Results show a positive association between an actor’s own (α; β and her beliefs about average(α; β in the population. The association between own preferences and the variance in beliefs about others’ preferences in the population, however, is curvilinear for α and insignificant for β. These results are partially consistent with the cone effect [1,2] which is described in detail below. Because in the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept, beliefs and own preferences are assumed to be independent, these results cast doubt on the application of the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept to experimental data.

  2. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...... is set at maximum, KES corresponds to the greedy equivalence search algorithm (GES). When greediness is kept at minimum, we prove that under mild assumptions KES asymptotically returns any inclusion optimal BN with nonzero probability. Experimental results for both synthetic and real data are reported...

  3. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to

  4. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used by such ada......The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  5. Discovering Alzheimer Genetic Biomarkers Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayroz F. Sherif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contribute most of the genetic variation to the human genome. SNPs associate with many complex and common diseases like Alzheimer’s disease (AD. Discovering SNP biomarkers at different loci can improve early diagnosis and treatment of these diseases. Bayesian network provides a comprehensible and modular framework for representing interactions between genes or single SNPs. Here, different Bayesian network structure learning algorithms have been applied in whole genome sequencing (WGS data for detecting the causal AD SNPs and gene-SNP interactions. We focused on polymorphisms in the top ten genes associated with AD and identified by genome-wide association (GWA studies. New SNP biomarkers were observed to be significantly associated with Alzheimer’s disease. These SNPs are rs7530069, rs113464261, rs114506298, rs73504429, rs7929589, rs76306710, and rs668134. The obtained results demonstrated the effectiveness of using BN for identifying AD causal SNPs with acceptable accuracy. The results guarantee that the SNP set detected by Markov blanket based methods has a strong association with AD disease and achieves better performance than both naïve Bayes and tree augmented naïve Bayes. Minimal augmented Markov blanket reaches accuracy of 66.13% and sensitivity of 88.87% versus 61.58% and 59.43% in naïve Bayes, respectively.

  6. Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, Michel C.A.; Modena, Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent

  7. Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

  8. A belief network approach for development of a nuclear power plant diagnosis system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, I K; Kim, J T; Lee, D Y; Jung, C H; Kim, J Y; Lee, J S; Ham, C S [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-12-31

    Belief network (or Bayesian network) based on Bayes` rule in probabilistic theory can be applied to the reasoning of diagnostic system. This paper describes the basic theory of concept and feasibility of using the network for diagnosis of nuclear power plants. An example shows that the probabilities of root causes of a failure are calculated from the measured or believed evidences. 6 refs., 3 figs. (Author)

  9. A belief network approach for development of a nuclear power plant diagnosis system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, I. K.; Kim, J. T.; Lee, D. Y.; Jung, C. H.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. S.; Ham, C. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    Belief network (or Bayesian network) based on Bayes` rule in probabilistic theory can be applied to the reasoning of diagnostic system. This paper describes the basic theory of concept and feasibility of using the network for diagnosis of nuclear power plants. An example shows that the probabilities of root causes of a failure are calculated from the measured or believed evidences. 6 refs., 3 figs. (Author)

  10. Efficient Bayesian network modeling of systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bensi, Michelle; Kiureghian, Armen Der; Straub, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The Bayesian network (BN) is a convenient tool for probabilistic modeling of system performance, particularly when it is of interest to update the reliability of the system or its components in light of observed information. In this paper, BN structures for modeling the performance of systems that are defined in terms of their minimum link or cut sets are investigated. Standard BN structures that define the system node as a child of its constituent components or its minimum link/cut sets lead to converging structures, which are computationally disadvantageous and could severely hamper application of the BN to real systems. A systematic approach to defining an alternative formulation is developed that creates chain-like BN structures that are orders of magnitude more efficient, particularly in terms of computational memory demand. The formulation uses an integer optimization algorithm to identify the most efficient BN structure. Example applications demonstrate the proposed methodology and quantify the gained computational advantage

  11. Implementing Bayesian networks with embedded stochastic MRAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Rafatul; Camsari, Kerem Y.; Datta, Supriyo

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJ's) with low barrier magnets have been used to implement random number generators (RNG's) and it has recently been shown that such an MTJ connected to the drain of a conventional transistor provides a three-terminal tunable RNG or a p-bit. In this letter we show how this p-bit can be used to build a p-circuit that emulates a Bayesian network (BN), such that the correlations in real world variables can be obtained from electrical measurements on the corresponding circuit nodes. The p-circuit design proceeds in two steps: the BN is first translated into a behavioral model, called Probabilistic Spin Logic (PSL), defined by dimensionless biasing (h) and interconnection (J) coefficients, which are then translated into electronic circuit elements. As a benchmark example, we mimic a family tree of three generations and show that the genetic relatedness calculated from a SPICE-compatible circuit simulator matches well-known results.

  12. Logistic regression against a divergent Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Antonio Sánchez Trujillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a discussion about two statistical tools used for prediction and causality assessment: logistic regression and Bayesian networks. Using data of a simulated example from a study assessing factors that might predict pulmonary emphysema (where fingertip pigmentation and smoking are considered; we posed the following questions. Is pigmentation a confounding, causal or predictive factor? Is there perhaps another factor, like smoking, that confounds? Is there a synergy between pigmentation and smoking? The results, in terms of prediction, are similar with the two techniques; regarding causation, differences arise. We conclude that, in decision-making, the sum of both: a statistical tool, used with common sense, and previous evidence, taking years or even centuries to develop; is better than the automatic and exclusive use of statistical resources.

  13. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangdong Hu

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  14. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  15. Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

  16. Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

    2017-02-01

    Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

  17. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF...... framework outperform the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE (root-mean-square error). Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show...... that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented in (v.d. Merwe et al...

  18. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  19. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  20. Designing Resource-Bounded Reasoners using Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this work we are concerned with the conceptual design of large-scale diagnostic and health management systems that use Bayesian networks. While they are...

  1. Deep Belief Networks for dimensionality reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noulas, A.K.; Kröse, B.J.A.

    2008-01-01

    Deep Belief Networks are probabilistic generative models which are composed by multiple layers of latent stochastic variables. The top two layers have symmetric undirected connections, while the lower layers receive directed top-down connections from the layer above. The current state-of-the-art

  2. Bayesian network modeling of operator's state recognition process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatakeyama, Naoki; Furuta, Kazuo

    2000-01-01

    Nowadays we are facing a difficult problem of establishing a good relation between humans and machines. To solve this problem, we suppose that machine system need to have a model of human behavior. In this study we model the state cognition process of a PWR plant operator as an example. We use a Bayesian network as an inference engine. We incorporate the knowledge hierarchy in the Bayesian network and confirm its validity using the example of PWR plant operator. (author)

  3. Bayes Academy - An Educational Game for Learning Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Sotala, Kaj

    2015-01-01

    This thesis describes the development of 'Bayes Academy', an educational game which aims to teach an understanding of Bayesian networks. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph describing a joint probability distribution function over n random variables, where each node in the graph represents a random variable. To find a way to turn this subject into an interesting game, this work draws on the theoretical background of meaningful play. Among other requirements, actions in the game...

  4. An Analysis of Construction Accident Factors Based on Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Yunsheng Zhao; Jinyong Pei

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we have an analysis of construction accident factors based on bayesian network. Firstly, accidents cases are analyzed to build Fault Tree method, which is available to find all the factors causing the accidents, then qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the factors with Bayesian network method, finally determines the safety management program to guide the safety operations. The results of this study show that bad condition of geological environment has the largest posterio...

  5. The use of conflicts in searching Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Poole, David L.

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorith...

  6. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  7. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  8. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  9. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  10. Cortical Coupling Reflects Bayesian Belief Updating in the Deployment of Spatial Attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Simone; Mathys, Christoph; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2015-08-19

    The deployment of visuospatial attention and the programming of saccades are governed by the inferred likelihood of events. In the present study, we combined computational modeling of psychophysical data with fMRI to characterize the computational and neural mechanisms underlying this flexible attentional control. Sixteen healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing paradigm in which the percentage of cue validity varied in time and the targets required saccadic responses. Trialwise estimates of the certainty (precision) of the prediction that the target would appear at the cued location were derived from a hierarchical Bayesian model fitted to individual trialwise saccadic response speeds. Trial-specific model parameters then entered analyses of fMRI data as parametric regressors. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was performed to identify the most likely functional architecture of the attentional reorienting network and its modulation by (Bayes-optimal) precision-dependent attention. While the frontal eye fields (FEFs), intraparietal sulcus, and temporoparietal junction (TPJ) of both hemispheres showed higher activity on invalid relative to valid trials, reorienting responses in right FEF, TPJ, and the putamen were significantly modulated by precision-dependent attention. Our DCM results suggested that the precision of predictability underlies the attentional modulation of the coupling of TPJ with FEF and the putamen. Our results shed new light on the computational architecture and neuronal network dynamics underlying the context-sensitive deployment of visuospatial attention. Spatial attention and its neural correlates in the human brain have been studied extensively with the help of fMRI and cueing paradigms in which the location of targets is pre-cued on a trial-by-trial basis. One aspect that has so far been neglected concerns the question of how the brain forms attentional expectancies when no a priori probability

  11. Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

    2017-02-01

    Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

  12. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  13. The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chugege

    2018-04-01

    The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

  14. Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an iterative Bayesian network development cycle

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Johnson, S

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available metapopulations was the focus of a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling workshop in South Africa. Using a new heuristics, Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), described in this paper, several networks were formulated to distinguish between the unique...

  15. Cholinergic stimulation enhances Bayesian belief updating in the deployment of spatial attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Simone; Bauer, Markus; Mathys, Christoph; Adams, Rick A; Dolan, Raymond J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2014-11-19

    The exact mechanisms whereby the cholinergic neurotransmitter system contributes to attentional processing remain poorly understood. Here, we applied computational modeling to psychophysical data (obtained from a spatial attention task) under a psychopharmacological challenge with the cholinesterase inhibitor galantamine (Reminyl). This allowed us to characterize the cholinergic modulation of selective attention formally, in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. In a placebo-controlled, within-subject, crossover design, 16 healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing task in which the proportion of validly and invalidly cued targets (percentage of cue validity, % CV) changed over time. Saccadic response speeds were used to estimate the parameters of a hierarchical Bayesian model to test whether cholinergic stimulation affected the trial-wise updating of probabilistic beliefs that underlie the allocation of attention or whether galantamine changed the mapping from those beliefs to subsequent eye movements. Behaviorally, galantamine led to a greater influence of probabilistic context (% CV) on response speed than placebo. Crucially, computational modeling suggested this effect was due to an increase in the rate of belief updating about cue validity (as opposed to the increased sensitivity of behavioral responses to those beliefs). We discuss these findings with respect to cholinergic effects on hierarchical cortical processing and in relation to the encoding of expected uncertainty or precision. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3415735-08$15.00/0.

  16. A Decomposition Algorithm for Learning Bayesian Network Structures from Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Cordero Hernandez, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    It is a challenging task of learning a large Bayesian network from a small data set. Most conventional structural learning approaches run into the computational as well as the statistical problems. We propose a decomposition algorithm for the structure construction without having to learn...... the complete network. The new learning algorithm firstly finds local components from the data, and then recover the complete network by joining the learned components. We show the empirical performance of the decomposition algorithm in several benchmark networks....

  17. Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

  18. An empirical Bayesian approach for model-based inference of cellular signaling networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klinke David J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A common challenge in systems biology is to infer mechanistic descriptions of biological process given limited observations of a biological system. Mathematical models are frequently used to represent a belief about the causal relationships among proteins within a signaling network. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for inferring the validity of those beliefs in the context of the available data. However, efficient sampling of high-dimensional parameter space and appropriate convergence criteria provide barriers for implementing an empirical Bayesian approach. The objective of this study was to apply an Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to a typical study of cellular signaling pathways. Results As an illustrative example, a kinetic model for the early signaling events associated with the epidermal growth factor (EGF signaling network was calibrated against dynamic measurements observed in primary rat hepatocytes. A convergence criterion, based upon the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, was applied to the model predictions. The posterior distributions of the parameters exhibited complicated structure, including significant covariance between specific parameters and a broad range of variance among the parameters. The model predictions, in contrast, were narrowly distributed and were used to identify areas of agreement among a collection of experimental studies. Conclusion In summary, an empirical Bayesian approach was developed for inferring the confidence that one can place in a particular model that describes signal transduction mechanisms and for inferring inconsistencies in experimental measurements.

  19. Kaolin Quality Prediction from Samples: A Bayesian Network Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, T.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.; Matias, J. M.

    2009-01-01

    We describe the results of an expert system applied to the evaluation of samples of kaolin for industrial use in paper or ceramic manufacture. Different machine learning techniques - classification trees, support vector machines and Bayesian networks - were applied with the aim of evaluating and comparing their interpretability and prediction capacities. The predictive capacity of these models for the samples analyzed was highly satisfactory, both for ceramic quality and paper quality. However, Bayesian networks generally proved to be the most useful technique for our study, as this approach combines good predictive capacity with excellent interpretability of the kaolin quality structure, as it graphically represents relationships between variables and facilitates what-if analyses.

  20. Balanced sensitivity functions for tuning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.; van der Gaag, L.C.

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers are Bayesian networks of restricted topological structure, which are tailored to classifying data instances into multiple dimensions. Like more traditional classifiers, multi-dimensional classifiers are typically learned from data and may include

  1. Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

    2017-11-14

    The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

  2. Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search.

  3. Refining a Heuristic for Constructing Bayesian Networks from Structured Arguments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieten, G.M.; Bex, F.J.; van der Gaag, L.C.; Prakken, H.; Renooij, S.

    2018-01-01

    Recently, a heuristic was proposed for constructing Bayesian networks (BNs) from structured arguments. This heuristic helps domain experts who are accustomed to argumentation to transform their reasoning into a BN and subsequently weigh their case evidence in a probabilistic manner. While the

  4. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  5. Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, James M

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

  6. Variable Discretisation for Anomaly Detection using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    order to adequately represent the data, although a modification may be required to accommodate the representation of low probability data. The solution...Korb, K. & Nicholson, A. (2010) Learning Abnormal Vessel Behaviour from AIS Data with Bayesian Networks at Two Time Scales, Technical report 2010/4

  7. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  8. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these

  9. Towards port sustainability through probabilistic models: Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Molina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary that a manager of an infrastructure knows relations between variables. Using Bayesian networks, variables can be classified, predicted and diagnosed, being able to estimate posterior probability of the unknown ones based on known ones. The proposed methodology has generated a database with port variables, which have been classified as economic, social, environmental and institutional, as addressed in of smart ports studies made in all Spanish Port System. Network has been developed using an acyclic directed graph, which have let us know relationships in terms of parents and sons. In probabilistic terms, it can be concluded from the constructed network that the most decisive variables for port sustainability are those that are part of the institutional dimension. It has been concluded that Bayesian networks allow modeling uncertainty probabilistically even when the number of variables is high as it occurs in port planning and exploitation.

  10. Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

    2015-01-01

    Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

  11. Robust Learning of Fixed-Structure Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Diakonikolas, Ilias; Kane, Daniel; Stewart, Alistair

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in an agnostic model where an $\\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. Our agnostic learning model is similar to -- in fact, stronger than -- Huber's contamination model in robust statistics. In this work, we study the fully observable Bernoulli case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent facto...

  12. Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

  13. Using Bayesian networks to support decision-focused information retrieval

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, P.; Elsaesser, C.; Seligman, L. [Mitre Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper has described an approach to controlling the process of pulling data/information from distributed data bases in a way that is specific to a persons specific decision making context. Our prototype implementation of this approach uses a knowledge-based planner to generate a plan, an automatically constructed Bayesian network to evaluate the plan, specialized processing of the network to derive key information items that would substantially impact the evaluation of the plan (e.g., determine that replanning is needed), automated construction of Standing Requests for Information (SRIs) which are automated functions that monitor changes and trends in distributed data base that are relevant to the key information items. This emphasis of this paper is on how Bayesian networks are used.

  14. Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

    2009-11-01

    Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from

  15. Constructing a Bayesian network model for improving safety behavior of employees at workplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadfam, Iraj; Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas

    2017-01-01

    Unsafe behavior increases the risk of accident at workplaces and needs to be managed properly. The aim of the present study was to provide a model for managing and improving safety behavior of employees using the Bayesian networks approach. The study was conducted in several power plant construction projects in Iran. The data were collected using a questionnaire composed of nine factors, including management commitment, supporting environment, safety management system, employees' participation, safety knowledge, safety attitude, motivation, resource allocation, and work pressure. In order for measuring the score of each factor assigned by a responder, a measurement model was constructed for each of them. The Bayesian network was constructed using experts' opinions and Dempster-Shafer theory. Using belief updating, the best intervention strategies for improving safety behavior also were selected. The result of the present study demonstrated that the majority of employees do not tend to consider safety rules, regulation, procedures and norms in their behavior at the workplace. Safety attitude, safety knowledge, and supporting environment were the best predictor of safety behavior. Moreover, it was determined that instantaneous improvement of supporting environment and employee participation is the best strategy to reach a high proportion of safety behavior at the workplace. The lack of a comprehensive model that can be used for explaining safety behavior was one of the most problematic issues of the study. Furthermore, it can be concluded that belief updating is a unique feature of Bayesian networks that is very useful in comparing various intervention strategies and selecting the best one form them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

  17. Robust Learning of High-dimensional Biological Networks with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nägele, Andreas; Dejori, Mathäus; Stetter, Martin

    Structure learning of Bayesian networks applied to gene expression data has become a potentially useful method to estimate interactions between genes. However, the NP-hardness of Bayesian network structure learning renders the reconstruction of the full genetic network with thousands of genes unfeasible. Consequently, the maximal network size is usually restricted dramatically to a small set of genes (corresponding with variables in the Bayesian network). Although this feature reduction step makes structure learning computationally tractable, on the downside, the learned structure might be adversely affected due to the introduction of missing genes. Additionally, gene expression data are usually very sparse with respect to the number of samples, i.e., the number of genes is much greater than the number of different observations. Given these problems, learning robust network features from microarray data is a challenging task. This chapter presents several approaches tackling the robustness issue in order to obtain a more reliable estimation of learned network features.

  18. A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

    2018-02-01

    Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

  19. Looking for Sustainable Urban Mobility through Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Fusco

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available There is no formalised theory of sustainable urban mobility systems. Observed patterns of urban mobility are often considered unsustainable. But we don’t know what a city with sustainable mobility should look like. It is nevertheless increasingly apparent that the urban mobility system plays an important role in the achievement of the city’s wider sustainability objectives.In this paper we explore the characteristics of sustainable urban mobility systems through the technique of Bayesian networks. At the frontier between multivariate statistics and artificial intelligence, Bayesian networks provide powerful models of causal knowledge in an uncertain context. Using data on urban structure, transportation offer, mobility demand, resource consumption and environmental externalities from seventy-five world cities, we developed a systemic model of the city-transportation-environment interaction in the form of a Bayesian network. The network could then be used to infer the features of the city with sustainable mobility.The Bayesian model indicates that the city with sustainable mobility is most probably a dense city with highly efficient transit and multimodal mobility. It produces high levels of accessibility without relying on a fast road network. The achievement of sustainability objectives for urban mobility is probably compatible with all socioeconomic contexts.By measuring the distance of world cities from the inferred sustainability profile, we finally derive a geography of sustainability for mobility systems. The cities closest to the sustainability profile are in Central Europe as well as in affluent countries of the Far East. Car-dependent American cities are the farthest from the desired sustainability profile.

  20. [Terahertz Spectroscopic Identification with Deep Belief Network].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Shuai; Shen, Tao; Wang, Rui-qi; Lai, Hua; Yu, Zheng-tao

    2015-12-01

    Feature extraction and classification are the key issues of terahertz spectroscopy identification. Because many materials have no apparent absorption peaks in the terahertz band, it is difficult to extract theirs terahertz spectroscopy feature and identify. To this end, a novel of identify terahertz spectroscopy approach with Deep Belief Network (DBN) was studied in this paper, which combines the advantages of DBN and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) classifier. Firstly, cubic spline interpolation and S-G filter were used to normalize the eight kinds of substances (ATP, Acetylcholine Bromide, Bifenthrin, Buprofezin, Carbazole, Bleomycin, Buckminster and Cylotriphosphazene) terahertz transmission spectra in the range of 0.9-6 THz. Secondly, the DBN model was built by two restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) and then trained layer by layer using unsupervised approach. Instead of using handmade features, the DBN was employed to learn suitable features automatically with raw input data. Finally, a KNN classifier was applied to identify the terahertz spectrum. Experimental results show that using the feature learned by DBN can identify the terahertz spectrum of different substances with the recognition rate of over 90%, which demonstrates that the proposed method can automatically extract the effective features of terahertz spectrum. Furthermore, this KNN classifier was compared with others (BP neural network, SOM neural network and RBF neural network). Comparisons showed that the recognition rate of KNN classifier is better than the other three classifiers. Using the approach that automatic extract terahertz spectrum features by DBN can greatly reduce the workload of feature extraction. This proposed method shows a promising future in the application of identifying the mass terahertz spectroscopy.

  1. Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

    2013-09-01

    In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

  2. Generating prior probabilities for classifiers of brain tumours using belief networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvanitis Theodoros N

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous methods for classifying brain tumours based on magnetic resonance spectra and imaging have been presented in the last 15 years. Generally, these methods use supervised machine learning to develop a classifier from a database of cases for which the diagnosis is already known. However, little has been published on developing classifiers based on mixed modalities, e.g. combining imaging information with spectroscopy. In this work a method of generating probabilities of tumour class from anatomical location is presented. Methods The method of "belief networks" is introduced as a means of generating probabilities that a tumour is any given type. The belief networks are constructed using a database of paediatric tumour cases consisting of data collected over five decades; the problems associated with using this data are discussed. To verify the usefulness of the networks, an application of the method is presented in which prior probabilities were generated and combined with a classification of tumours based solely on MRS data. Results Belief networks were constructed from a database of over 1300 cases. These can be used to generate a probability that a tumour is any given type. Networks are presented for astrocytoma grades I and II, astrocytoma grades III and IV, ependymoma, pineoblastoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumour (PNET, germinoma, medulloblastoma, craniopharyngioma and a group representing rare tumours, "other". Using the network to generate prior probabilities for classification improves the accuracy when compared with generating prior probabilities based on class prevalence. Conclusion Bayesian belief networks are a simple way of using discrete clinical information to generate probabilities usable in classification. The belief network method can be robust to incomplete datasets. Inclusion of a priori knowledge is an effective way of improving classification of brain tumours by non-invasive methods.

  3. Uncertainty management using bayesian networks in student knowledge diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina COCU

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In intelligent tutoring systems, student or user modeling implies dealing with imperfect and uncertain knowledge. One of the artificial intelligence techniques used for uncertainty management is that of Bayesian networks. This paradigm is recommended in the situation when exist dependencies between data and qualitative information about these data. In this work we present a student knowledge diagnosis model based on representation with Bayesian networks. The educational system incorporate a multimedia interface for accomplishes the testing tools. The results of testing sessions are represented and interpreted with probability theory in order to ensure an adapted support for the student. The aims of the computer assisted application that contains this diagnose module are to support the student in personalized learning process and errors explanation.

  4. Reconstructing consensus Bayesian network structures with application to learning molecular interaction networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fröhlich, H.; Klau, G.W.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Networks are an established computational approach for data driven network inference. However, experimental data is limited in its availability and corrupted by noise. This leads to an unavoidable uncertainty about the correct network structure. Thus sampling or bootstrap based strategies

  5. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for a Decision Support System

    OpenAIRE

    Julia Mortera; Paola Vicard; Cecilia Vergari

    2012-01-01

    We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two rms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent rms potential anti-competitive behaviour. The Antitrust Au- thority's decision process is modelled using a Bayesian network whose relational structure and parameters are estimated from data provided by the Authority itself. Several economic variables in uencing this de- cision process are included in the model. We analyse how monitoring by the Antitrust Auth...

  6. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these models is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic review of the scientific literature and identify 17 standard BN models in cyber security. We analyse these models based on 9 different criteri...

  7. Bayesian Computational Sensor Networks for Aircraft Structural Health Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-02

    Virginia 22203 Air Force Research Laboratory Air Force Materiel Command 1 Final Performance Report: AFOSR T.C. Henderson , V.J. Mathews, and D...AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0094 Bayesian Computational Sensor Networks for Aircraft Structural Health Monitoring. Thomas Henderson UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SALT...The people who worked on this project include: Thomas C. Henderson , John Mathews, Jingru Zhou, Daimei Zhij, Ahmad Zoubi, Sabita Nahata, Dan Adams

  8. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  9. Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Hyun

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

  10. Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

    2011-01-01

    Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

  11. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalet, Alan M; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H; Gennari, John H

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures. (paper)

  12. Facial expression recognition based on improved deep belief networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yao; Qiu, Weigen

    2017-08-01

    In order to improve the robustness of facial expression recognition, a method of face expression recognition based on Local Binary Pattern (LBP) combined with improved deep belief networks (DBNs) is proposed. This method uses LBP to extract the feature, and then uses the improved deep belief networks as the detector and classifier to extract the LBP feature. The combination of LBP and improved deep belief networks is realized in facial expression recognition. In the JAFFE (Japanese Female Facial Expression) database on the recognition rate has improved significantly.

  13. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2009-01-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  14. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wieland, Patricia [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: pwieland@cnen.gov.br; Lustosa, Leonardo J. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial], e-mail: ljl@puc-rio.br

    2009-07-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  15. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of outcome- and process-based social preferences and beliefs in Dictator Games and sequential Prisoner's Dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Ozan; Weesie, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, using a within-subjects design, we estimate the utility weights that subjects attach to the outcome of their interaction partners in four decision situations: (1) binary Dictator Games (DG), second player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) after the first player (2) cooperated and (3) defected, and (4) first player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. We find that the average weights in these four decision situations have the following order: (1)>(2)>(4)>(3). Moreover, the average weight is positive in (1) but negative in (2), (3), and (4). Our findings indicate the existence of strong negative and small positive reciprocity for the average subject, but there is also high interpersonal variation in the weights in these four nodes. We conclude that the PD frame makes subjects more competitive than the DG frame. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we simultaneously analyze beliefs of subjects about others' utility weights in the same four decision situations. We compare several alternative theoretical models on beliefs, e.g., rational beliefs (Bayesian-Nash equilibrium) and a consensus model. Our results on beliefs strongly support the consensus effect and refute rational beliefs: there is a strong relationship between own preferences and beliefs and this relationship is relatively stable across the four decision situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Learning Negotiation Policies Using IB3 and Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalepa, Gislaine M.; Ávila, Bráulio C.; Enembreck, Fabrício; Scalabrin, Edson E.

    This paper presents an intelligent offer policy in a negotiation environment, in which each agent involved learns the preferences of its opponent in order to improve its own performance. Each agent must also be able to detect drifts in the opponent's preferences so as to quickly adjust itself to their new offer policy. For this purpose, two simple learning techniques were first evaluated: (i) based on instances (IB3) and (ii) based on Bayesian Networks. Additionally, as its known that in theory group learning produces better results than individual/single learning, the efficiency of IB3 and Bayesian classifier groups were also analyzed. Finally, each decision model was evaluated in moments of concept drift, being the drift gradual, moderate or abrupt. Results showed that both groups of classifiers were able to effectively detect drifts in the opponent's preferences.

  17. Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models...... and a fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated...... on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey....

  18. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang-Ju; Lee, Kun Jai

    2006-01-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If we take various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering specific systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, we believe that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this paper proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. We developed and verified an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, we could connect the results of probabilistic inference from the Bayesian network with the consequence

  20. Multiscale Bayesian neural networks for soil water content estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Springer, Everett P.

    2008-08-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been used for some time now to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from other available or more easily measurable soil properties. However, most such uses of ANNs as pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been at matching spatial scales (1:1) of inputs and outputs. This approach assumes that the outputs are only required at the same scale as the input data. Unfortunately, this is rarely true. Different hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and contaminant transport models require soil hydraulic parameter data at different spatial scales, depending upon their grid sizes. While conventional (deterministic) ANNs have been traditionally used in these studies, the use of Bayesian training of ANNs is a more recent development. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to derive soil water retention function including its uncertainty at the point or local scale using PTFs trained with coarser-scale Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO)-based soil data. The approach includes an ANN trained with Bayesian techniques as a PTF tool with training and validation data collected across spatial extents (scales) in two different regions in the United States. The two study areas include the Las Cruces Trench site in the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, and the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) hydrology experimental region in Oklahoma. Each region-specific Bayesian ANN is trained using soil texture and bulk density data from the SSURGO database (scale 1:24,000), and predictions of the soil water contents at different pressure heads with point scale data (1:1) inputs are made. The resulting outputs are corrected for bias using both linear and nonlinear correction techniques. The results show good agreement between the soil water content values measured at the point scale and those predicted by the Bayesian ANN-based PTFs for both the study sites. Overall, Bayesian ANNs coupled with nonlinear bias correction are found to be very suitable tools for deriving soil

  1. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  2. Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pejic, Michael

    Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

  3. Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection

  4. Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, G B; Mengersen, K; Meader, N

    2014-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to 'empty' reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-08

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  6. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-01

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

  8. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  9. A geometric view on learning Bayesian network structures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan; Vomlel, Jiří; Hemmecke, R.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 5 (2010), s. 578-586 ISSN 0888-613X. [PGM 2008] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100750603; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : learning Bayesian networks * standard imset * inclusion neighborhood * geometric neighborhood * GES algorithm Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.679, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/MTR/studeny-0342804. pdf

  10. Refinement of Bayesian Network Structures upon New Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Pacekajus, Saulius

    2010-01-01

    Refinement of Bayesian network (BN) structures using new data becomes more and more relevant. Some work has been done there; however, one problem has not been considered yet – what to do when new data have fewer or more attributes than the existing model. In both cases, data contain important...... knowledge and every effort must be made in order to extract it. In this paper, we propose a general merging algorithm to deal with situations when new data have different set of attributes. The merging algorithm updates sufficient statistics when new data are received. It expands the flexibility of BN...

  11. Combination of Bayesian Network and Overlay Model in User Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loc Nguyen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The core of adaptive system is user model containing personal information such as knowledge, learning styles, goals… which is requisite for learning personalized process. There are many modeling approaches, for example: stereotype, overlay, plan recognition… but they don’t bring out the solid method for reasoning from user model. This paper introduces the statistical method that combines Bayesian network and overlay modeling so that it is able to infer user’s knowledge from evidences collected during user’s learning process.

  12. Vacation portfolio decisions: analysis using a Bayesian belief network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the extent to which vacation portfolio decisions are influenced by socio-demographic characteristics. A vacation portfolio involves interdependent decisions related to the facets that make the vacation trip, including transport mode, accommodation, destination,

  13. Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, M.

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, transport mode choice was primarily examined as a stand alone problem. Given a purpose and destination, the choice of transport mode was modelled as a function of the various attributes of the transport mode alternatives. Later, transport mode choice decisions were modelled as part of

  14. Applying Bayesian belief networks in Sun Tzu's Art of war

    OpenAIRE

    Ang, Kwang Chien

    2004-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. The principles of Sun Tzu's Art of War have been widely used by business executives and military officers with much success in the realm of competition and conflict. However, when conflict situations arise in a highly stressful environment coupled with the pressure of time, decision makers may not be able to consider all the key concepts when forming their decisions or strategies. Therefore, a structured reasoning approach may be used...

  15. Applying Bayesian Belief Networks in Sun Tzu's Art of War

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ang, Kwang

    2004-01-01

    .... However, when conflict situations arise in a highly stressful environment coupled with the pressure of time, decision makers may not be able to consider all the key concepts when forming their decisions or strategies...

  16. Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chernoded Andrey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

  17. A Bayesian belief nets based quantitative software reliability assessment for PSA: COTS case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Jeong, H. S.; Park, J. H.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K

    2002-03-01

    Current reliability assessments of safety critical software embedded in the digital systems in nuclear power plants are based on the rule-based qualitative assessment methods. Then recently practical needs require the quantitative features of software reliability for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) that is one of important methods being used in assessing the whole safety of nuclear power plant. But conventional quantitative software reliability assessment methods are not enough to get the necessary results in assessing the safety critical software used in nuclear power plants. Thus, current reliability assessment methods for these digital systems exclude the software part or use arbitrary values for the software reliability in the assessment. This reports discusses a Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) based quantification method that models current qualitative software assessment in formal way and produces quantitative results required for PSA. Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software dedication process that KAERI developed was applied to the discussed BBN based method for evaluating the plausibility of the proposed method in PSA

  18. Decision Support System for Hepatitis Disease Diagnosis using Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shamshad Lakho

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Medical judgments are tough and challenging as the decisions are often based on the deficient and ambiguous information. Moreover, the result of decision process has direct effects on human lives. The act of human decision declines in emergency situations due to the complication, time limit, and high risks. Therefore, provision of medical diagnosis plays a dynamic role, specifically in the preliminary stage when a physician has limited diagnosis experience and identifies the directions to be taken for the treatment process. Computerized Decision Support Systems have brought a revolution in the medical diagnosis. These automatic systems support the diagnosticians in the course of diagnosis. The major role of Decision Support Systems is to support the medical personnel in decision-making procedures regarding disease diagnosis and treatment recommendation. The proposed system provides easy support in Hepatitis disease recognition. The system is developed using the Bayesian network model. The physician provides the input to the system in the form of symptoms stated by the patient. These signs and symptoms match with the casual relationships present in the knowledge model. The Bayesian network infers conclusion from the knowledge model and calculates the probability of occurrence of Hepatitis B, C and D disorders.

  19. Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate.

  20. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  1. Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Chen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety.

  2. An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

    2006-01-01

    Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

  3. Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M Pawson

    Full Text Available Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model's predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways.

  4. The use of Bayesian networks to assess the quality of evidence from research synthesis: 1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavin B Stewart

    Full Text Available The grades of recommendation, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE approach is widely implemented in systematic reviews, health technology assessment and guideline development organisations throughout the world. A key advantage to this approach is that it aids transparency regarding judgments on the quality of evidence. However, the intricacies of making judgments about research methodology and evidence make the GRADE system complex and challenging to apply without training.We have developed a semi-automated quality assessment tool (SAQAT l based on GRADE. This is informed by responses by reviewers to checklist questions regarding characteristics that may lead to unreliability. These responses are then entered into the Bayesian network to ascertain the probabilities of risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness, imprecision and publication bias conditional on review characteristics. The model then combines these probabilities to provide a probability for each of the GRADE overall quality categories. We tested the model using a range of plausible scenarios that guideline developers or review authors could encounter.Overall, the model reproduced GRADE judgements for a range of scenarios. Potential advantages over standard assessment are use of explicit and consistent weightings for different review characteristics, forcing consideration of important but sometimes neglected characteristics and principled downgrading where small but important probabilities of downgrading are accrued across domains.Bayesian networks have considerable potential for use as tools to assess the validity of research evidence. The key strength of such networks lies in the provision of a statistically coherent method for combining probabilities across a complex framework based on both belief and evidence. In addition to providing tools for less experienced users to implement reliability assessment, the potential for sensitivity analyses and automation may be

  5. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  6. The neighborhood MCMC sampler for learning Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Salem A.; Azad, A. K. M.; Keith, Jonathan M.

    2016-07-01

    Getting stuck in local maxima is a problem that arises while learning Bayesian networks (BNs) structures. In this paper, we studied a recently proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, called the Neighbourhood sampler (NS), and examined how efficiently it can sample BNs when local maxima are present. We assume that a posterior distribution f(N,E|D) has been defined, where D represents data relevant to the inference, N and E are the sets of nodes and directed edges, respectively. We illustrate the new approach by sampling from such a distribution, and inferring BNs. The simulations conducted in this paper show that the new learning approach substantially avoids getting stuck in local modes of the distribution, and achieves a more rapid rate of convergence, compared to other common algorithms e.g. the MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

  7. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics; Peiris, Hiranya V. [Univ. College London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain). Dept. of Theoretical Physics; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao (Spain). IKERBASQUE; Easther, Richard [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics

    2015-11-15

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  8. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [McWilliams Center for Cosmology, Department of Physics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Peiris, Hiranya V. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Frazer, Jonathan [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Theory Group, 22603 Hamburg (Germany); Easther, Richard, E-mail: laynep@andrew.cmu.edu, E-mail: h.peiris@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: jonathan.frazer@desy.de, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz [Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland (New Zealand)

    2016-02-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  9. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Layne C.; Auckland Univ.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Frazer, Jonathan; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao; Easther, Richard

    2015-11-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N f -quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N * between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  10. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan(Alan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ( status and Estrogen Receptor negative ( status, respectively.

  11. Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Context-Aware Fall Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Koshmak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor.

  12. Modeling Women's Menstrual Cycles using PICI Gates in Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagorecki, Adam; Łupińska-Dubicka, Anna; Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2016-03-01

    A major difficulty in building Bayesian network (BN) models is the size of conditional probability tables, which grow exponentially in the number of parents. One way of dealing with this problem is through parametric conditional probability distributions that usually require only a number of parameters that is linear in the number of parents. In this paper, we introduce a new class of parametric models, the Probabilistic Independence of Causal Influences (PICI) models, that aim at lowering the number of parameters required to specify local probability distributions, but are still capable of efficiently modeling a variety of interactions. A subset of PICI models is decomposable and this leads to significantly faster inference as compared to models that cannot be decomposed. We present an application of the proposed method to learning dynamic BNs for modeling a woman's menstrual cycle. We show that PICI models are especially useful for parameter learning from small data sets and lead to higher parameter accuracy than when learning CPTs.

  13. Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jinsoo; Son, Hanseong; Khalil ur, Rahman; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2015-01-01

    Cyber security is an emerging safety issue in the nuclear industry, especially in the instrumentation and control (I and C) field. To address the cyber security issue systematically, a model that can be used for cyber security evaluation is required. In this work, a cyber security risk model based on a Bayesian network is suggested for evaluating cyber security for nuclear facilities in an integrated manner. The suggested model enables the evaluation of both the procedural and technical aspects of cyber security, which are related to compliance with regulatory guides and system architectures, respectively. The activity-quality analysis model was developed to evaluate how well people and/or organizations comply with the regulatory guidance associated with cyber security. The architecture analysis model was created to evaluate vulnerabilities and mitigation measures with respect to their effect on cyber security. The two models are integrated into a single model, which is called the cyber security risk model, so that cyber security can be evaluated from procedural and technical viewpoints at the same time. The model was applied to evaluate the cyber security risk of the reactor protection system (RPS) of a research reactor and to demonstrate its usefulness and feasibility. - Highlights: • We developed the cyber security risk model can be find the weak point of cyber security integrated two cyber analysis models by using Bayesian Network. • One is the activity-quality model signifies how people and/or organization comply with the cyber security regulatory guide. • Other is the architecture model represents the probability of cyber-attack on RPS architecture. • The cyber security risk model can provide evidence that is able to determine the key element for cyber security for RPS of a research reactor

  14. Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Dynamic cause-consequence analysis of the regulator system failure using BN. - Highlights: • A dynamic and comprehensive QRA (DCQRA) framework is proposed for safety assessment of CGSs. • Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed for accident scenario modeling. • Critical basic events and minimal cut sets are identified using probability updating. - Abstract: Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks.

  15. Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zarei, Esmaeil, E-mail: smlzarei65@gmail.com [Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Azadeh, Ali [School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Center of Excellence for Intelligent-Based Experimental Mechanic, College of Engineering, University of Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Khakzad, Nima [Safety and Security Science Section, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands); Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei [Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mohammadfam, Iraj, E-mail: mohammadfam@umsha.ac.ir [Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-01-05

    Graphical abstract: Dynamic cause-consequence analysis of the regulator system failure using BN. - Highlights: • A dynamic and comprehensive QRA (DCQRA) framework is proposed for safety assessment of CGSs. • Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed for accident scenario modeling. • Critical basic events and minimal cut sets are identified using probability updating. - Abstract: Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks.

  16. Learning Predictive Interactions Using Information Gain and Bayesian Network Scoring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Jiang

    Full Text Available The problems of correlation and classification are long-standing in the fields of statistics and machine learning, and techniques have been developed to address these problems. We are now in the era of high-dimensional data, which is data that can concern billions of variables. These data present new challenges. In particular, it is difficult to discover predictive variables, when each variable has little marginal effect. An example concerns Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS datasets, which involve millions of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs, where some of the SNPs interact epistatically to affect disease status. Towards determining these interacting SNPs, researchers developed techniques that addressed this specific problem. However, the problem is more general, and so these techniques are applicable to other problems concerning interactions. A difficulty with many of these techniques is that they do not distinguish whether a learned interaction is actually an interaction or whether it involves several variables with strong marginal effects.We address this problem using information gain and Bayesian network scoring. First, we identify candidate interactions by determining whether together variables provide more information than they do separately. Then we use Bayesian network scoring to see if a candidate interaction really is a likely model. Our strategy is called MBS-IGain. Using 100 simulated datasets and a real GWAS Alzheimer's dataset, we investigated the performance of MBS-IGain.When analyzing the simulated datasets, MBS-IGain substantially out-performed nine previous methods at locating interacting predictors, and at identifying interactions exactly. When analyzing the real Alzheimer's dataset, we obtained new results and results that substantiated previous findings. We conclude that MBS-IGain is highly effective at finding interactions in high-dimensional datasets. This result is significant because we have increasingly

  17. Inference of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on dynamic Bayesian network hybrid learning method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Xu, Jia-Meng; Li, Shan; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Ming-Hui

    2017-10-06

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) research reveals complex life phenomena from the perspective of gene interaction, which is an important research field in systems biology. Traditional Bayesian networks have a high computational complexity, and the network structure scoring model has a single feature. Information-based approaches cannot identify the direction of regulation. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the above methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid learning method (DBNCS) based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct the multiple time-delayed GRNs for the first time, combining the comprehensive score (CS) with the DBN model. DBNCS algorithm first uses CMI2NI (conditional mutual inclusive information-based network inference) algorithm for network structure profiles learning, namely the construction of search space. Then the redundant regulations are removed by using the recursive optimization algorithm (RO), thereby reduce the false positive rate. Secondly, the network structure profiles are decomposed into a set of cliques without loss, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, DBN model is used to identify the direction of gene regulation within the cliques and search for the optimal network structure. The performance of DBNCS algorithm is evaluated by the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli , and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results show the rationality of the algorithm design and the outstanding performance of the GRNs.

  18. E-commerce System Security Assessment based on Bayesian Network Algorithm Research

    OpenAIRE

    Ting Li; Xin Li

    2013-01-01

    Evaluation of e-commerce network security is based on assessment method Bayesian networks, and it first defines the vulnerability status of e-commerce system evaluation index and the vulnerability of the state model of e-commerce systems, and after the principle of the Bayesian network reliability of e-commerce system and the criticality of the vulnerabilities were analyzed, experiments show that the change method is a good evaluation of the security of e-commerce systems.

  19. Non-Bayesian decision theory beliefs and desires as reasons for action

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Martin

    2008-01-01

    This book aims to present an account of rational choice from a non-Bayesian point of view. It provides the first non-Bayesian account of normative decision theory and includes a formal account of the framing of decision problems.

  20. Understanding travelers’ behavior in provision of travel information : a Bayesian belief approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Parvaneh, Z.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Individuals make their decisions considering their past experiences and their beliefs about the possible outcomes of the decision. That is to say individuals have beliefs about outcomes of an event. These beliefs about the outcomes of an event are not constant. Each time an individual receives

  1. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  2. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  3. Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

    2009-09-16

    This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer

  4. Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2006-02-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

  5. Bayesian networks for clinical decision support in lung cancer care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Berkan Sesen

    Full Text Available Survival prediction and treatment selection in lung cancer care are characterised by high levels of uncertainty. Bayesian Networks (BNs, which naturally reason with uncertain domain knowledge, can be applied to aid lung cancer experts by providing personalised survival estimates and treatment selection recommendations. Based on the English Lung Cancer Database (LUCADA, we evaluate the feasibility of BNs for these two tasks, while comparing the performances of various causal discovery approaches to uncover the most feasible network structure from expert knowledge and data. We show first that the BN structure elicited from clinicians achieves a disappointing area under the ROC curve of 0.75 (± 0.03, whereas a structure learned by the CAMML hybrid causal discovery algorithm, which adheres with the temporal restrictions, achieves 0.81 (± 0.03. Second, our causal intervention results reveal that BN treatment recommendations, based on prescribing the treatment plan that maximises survival, can only predict the recorded treatment plan 29% of the time. However, this percentage rises to 76% when partial matches are included.

  6. Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargrave, C; Deegan, T; Gibbs, A; Poulsen, M; Moores, M; Harden, F; Mengersen, K

    2014-01-01

    A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

  7. Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrave, C.; Moores, M.; Deegan, T.; Gibbs, A.; Poulsen, M.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.

    2014-03-01

    A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific subregions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

  8. A comparison between Markovian models and Bayesian networks for treating some dependent events in reliability evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duarte, Juliana P.; Leite, Victor C.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e, E-mail: julianapduarte@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: victor.coppo.leite@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Bayesian networks have become a very handy tool for solving problems in various application areas. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian networks to treat dependent events in reliability engineering typically modeled by Markovian models. Dependent events play an important role as, for example, when treating load-sharing systems, bridge systems, common-cause failures, and switching systems (those for which a standby component is activated after the main one fails by means of a switching mechanism). Repair plays an important role in all these cases (as, for example, the number of repairmen). All Bayesian network calculations are performed by means of the Netica™ software, of Norsys Software Corporation, and Fortran 90 to evaluate them over time. The discussion considers the development of time-dependent reliability figures of merit, which are easily obtained, through Markovian models, but not through Bayesian networks, because these latter need probability figures as input and not failure and repair rates. Bayesian networks produced results in very good agreement with those of Markov models and pivotal decomposition. Static and discrete time (DTBN) Bayesian networks were used in order to check their capabilities of modeling specific situations, like switching failures in cold-standby systems. The DTBN was more flexible to modeling systems where the time of occurrence of an event is important, for example, standby failure and repair. However, the static network model showed as good results as DTBN by a much more simplified approach. (author)

  9. A comparison between Markovian models and Bayesian networks for treating some dependent events in reliability evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, Juliana P.; Leite, Victor C.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks have become a very handy tool for solving problems in various application areas. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian networks to treat dependent events in reliability engineering typically modeled by Markovian models. Dependent events play an important role as, for example, when treating load-sharing systems, bridge systems, common-cause failures, and switching systems (those for which a standby component is activated after the main one fails by means of a switching mechanism). Repair plays an important role in all these cases (as, for example, the number of repairmen). All Bayesian network calculations are performed by means of the Netica™ software, of Norsys Software Corporation, and Fortran 90 to evaluate them over time. The discussion considers the development of time-dependent reliability figures of merit, which are easily obtained, through Markovian models, but not through Bayesian networks, because these latter need probability figures as input and not failure and repair rates. Bayesian networks produced results in very good agreement with those of Markov models and pivotal decomposition. Static and discrete time (DTBN) Bayesian networks were used in order to check their capabilities of modeling specific situations, like switching failures in cold-standby systems. The DTBN was more flexible to modeling systems where the time of occurrence of an event is important, for example, standby failure and repair. However, the static network model showed as good results as DTBN by a much more simplified approach. (author)

  10. A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sho Fukuda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

  11. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  12. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...

  13. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

  14. Intelligent condition monitoring of railway catenary systems : A Bayesian Network approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, H.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Liu, Zhigang; Chen, Junwen; Spiryagin, Maksym; Gordon, Timothy; Cole, Colin; McSweeney, Tim

    2017-01-01

    This study proposes a Bayesian network (BN) dedicated for the intelligent condition monitoring of railway catenary systems. It combines five types of measurements related to catenary condition, namely the contact wire stagger, contact wire height, pantograph head displacement, pantograph head

  15. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

    2011-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow

  16. Question Generation and Adaptation Using a Bayesian Network of the Learner’s Achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wißner, M.; Linnebank, F.; Liem, J.; Bredeweg, B.; André, E.; Lane, H.C.; Yacef, K.; Mostow, J.; Pavlik, P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a domain independent question generation and interaction procedure that automatically generates multiple-choice questions for conceptual models created with Qualitative Reasoning vocabulary. A Bayesian Network is deployed that captures the learning progress based on the answers

  17. Bus Route Design with a Bayesian Network Analysis of Bus Service Revenues

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yi; Jia, Yuanhua; Feng, Xuesong; Wu, Jiang

    2018-01-01

    A Bayesian network is used to estimate revenues of bus services in consideration of the effect of bus travel demands, passenger transport distances, and so on. In this research, the area X in Beijing has been selected as the study area because of its relatively high bus travel demand and, on the contrary, unsatisfactory bus services. It is suggested that the proposed Bayesian network approach is able to rationally predict the probabilities of different revenues of various route services, from...

  18. Bayesian Networks as a Decision Tool for O&M of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    Costs to operation and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind turbines are large. This paper presents how influence diagrams can be used to assist in rational decision making for O&M. An influence diagram is a graphical representation of a decision tree based on Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks...... offer efficient Bayesian updating of a damage model when imperfect information from inspections/monitoring is available. The extension to an influence diagram offers the calculation of expected utilities for decision alternatives, and can be used to find the optimal strategy among different alternatives...

  19. Non-parametric Bayesian networks: Improving theory and reviewing applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, Anca; Morales Napoles, Oswaldo; Ababei, Dan

    2015-01-01

    Applications in various domains often lead to high dimensional dependence modelling. A Bayesian network (BN) is a probabilistic graphical model that provides an elegant way of expressing the joint distribution of a large number of interrelated variables. BNs have been successfully used to represent uncertain knowledge in a variety of fields. The majority of applications use discrete BNs, i.e. BNs whose nodes represent discrete variables. Integrating continuous variables in BNs is an area fraught with difficulty. Several methods that handle discrete-continuous BNs have been proposed in the literature. This paper concentrates only on one method called non-parametric BNs (NPBNs). NPBNs were introduced in 2004 and they have been or are currently being used in at least twelve professional applications. This paper provides a short introduction to NPBNs, a couple of theoretical advances, and an overview of applications. The aim of the paper is twofold: one is to present the latest improvements of the theory underlying NPBNs, and the other is to complement the existing overviews of BNs applications with the NPNBs applications. The latter opens the opportunity to discuss some difficulties that applications pose to the theoretical framework and in this way offers some NPBN modelling guidance to practitioners. - Highlights: • The paper gives an overview of the current NPBNs methodology. • We extend the NPBN methodology by relaxing the conditions of one of its fundamental theorems. • We propose improvements of the data mining algorithm for the NPBNs. • We review the professional applications of the NPBNs.

  20. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  1. Application of Bayesian Networks for Estimation of Individual Psychological Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-07-19

    In this paper we apply Bayesian networks for developing more accurate final overall estimations of psychological characteristics of an individual, based on psychological test results. Psychological tests which identify how much an individual possesses a certain factor are very popular and quite common in the modern world. We call this value for a given factor -- the final overall estimation. Examples of factors could be stress resistance, the readiness to take a risk, the ability to concentrate on certain complicated work and many others. An accurate qualitative and comprehensive assessment of human potential is one of the most important challenges in any company or collective. The most common way of studying psychological characteristics of each single person is testing. Psychologists and sociologists are constantly working on improvement of the quality of their tests. Despite serious work, done by psychologists, the questions in tests often do not produce enough feedback due to the use of relatively poor estimation systems. The overall estimation is usually based on personal experiences and the subjective perception of a psychologist or a group of psychologists about the investigated psychological personality factors.

  2. Finding the optimal Bayesian network given a constraint graph

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob M. Schreiber

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent algorithmic improvements, learning the optimal structure of a Bayesian network from data is typically infeasible past a few dozen variables. Fortunately, domain knowledge can frequently be exploited to achieve dramatic computational savings, and in many cases domain knowledge can even make structure learning tractable. Several methods have previously been described for representing this type of structural prior knowledge, including global orderings, super-structures, and constraint rules. While super-structures and constraint rules are flexible in terms of what prior knowledge they can encode, they achieve savings in memory and computational time simply by avoiding considering invalid graphs. We introduce the concept of a “constraint graph” as an intuitive method for incorporating rich prior knowledge into the structure learning task. We describe how this graph can be used to reduce the memory cost and computational time required to find the optimal graph subject to the encoded constraints, beyond merely eliminating invalid graphs. In particular, we show that a constraint graph can break the structure learning task into independent subproblems even in the presence of cyclic prior knowledge. These subproblems are well suited to being solved in parallel on a single machine or distributed across many machines without excessive communication cost.

  3. Application of Bayesian Networks for Estimation of Individual Psychological Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Litvinenko, Natalya

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we apply Bayesian networks for developing more accurate final overall estimations of psychological characteristics of an individual, based on psychological test results. Psychological tests which identify how much an individual possesses a certain factor are very popular and quite common in the modern world. We call this value for a given factor -- the final overall estimation. Examples of factors could be stress resistance, the readiness to take a risk, the ability to concentrate on certain complicated work and many others. An accurate qualitative and comprehensive assessment of human potential is one of the most important challenges in any company or collective. The most common way of studying psychological characteristics of each single person is testing. Psychologists and sociologists are constantly working on improvement of the quality of their tests. Despite serious work, done by psychologists, the questions in tests often do not produce enough feedback due to the use of relatively poor estimation systems. The overall estimation is usually based on personal experiences and the subjective perception of a psychologist or a group of psychologists about the investigated psychological personality factors.

  4. Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Hatta, Zulkarnain Ahmad; Hashim, Intan Hashimah Mohd; Sulong, Jasni; Mahudin, Nor Diana Mohd; Rahman, Shukran Abd; Saad, Zarina Mat

    2014-12-01

    The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

  5. Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

  6. CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarboui Anis

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  7. Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

    2016-01-01

    Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

  8. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

  9. Estimating extreme river discharges in Europe through a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

    2017-06-01

    Large-scale hydrological modelling of flood hazards requires adequate extreme discharge data. In practise, models based on physics are applied alongside those utilizing only statistical analysis. The former require enormous computational power, while the latter are mostly limited in accuracy and spatial coverage. In this paper we introduce an alternate, statistical approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs), a graphical model for dependent random variables. We use a non-parametric BN to describe the joint distribution of extreme discharges in European rivers and variables representing the geographical characteristics of their catchments. Annual maxima of daily discharges from more than 1800 river gauges (stations with catchment areas ranging from 1.4 to 807 000 km2) were collected, together with information on terrain, land use and local climate. The (conditional) correlations between the variables are modelled through copulas, with the dependency structure defined in the network. The results show that using this method, mean annual maxima and return periods of discharges could be estimated with an accuracy similar to existing studies using physical models for Europe and better than a comparable global statistical model. Performance of the model varies slightly between regions of Europe, but is consistent between different time periods, and remains the same in a split-sample validation. Though discharge prediction under climate change is not the main scope of this paper, the BN was applied to a large domain covering all sizes of rivers in the continent both for present and future climate, as an example. Results show substantial variation in the influence of climate change on river discharges. The model can be used to provide quick estimates of extreme discharges at any location for the purpose of obtaining input information for hydraulic modelling.

  10. A Bayesian Network to Predict Barrier Island Geomorphologic Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, B.; Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Turecek, A.; Stippa, S.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States respond to storms and sea-level rise is an important management concern. Although these threats are well recognized, quantifying the integrated vulnerability is challenging due to the range of time and space scalesover which these processes act. Developing datasets and methods to identify the physical vulnerabilities of coastal environments due to storms and sea-level rise thus is an important scientific focus that supports land management decision making. Here we employ a Bayesian Network (BN) to model the interactions between geomorphic variables sampled from existing datasets that capture both storm-and sea-level rise related coastal evolution. The BN provides a means of estimating probabilities of changes in specific geomorphic characteristics such as foredune crest height, beach width, beach height, given knowledge of barrier island width, maximum barrier island elevation, distance from an inlet, the presence of anthropogenic modifications, and long-term shoreline change rates, which we assume to be directly related to sea-level rise. We evaluate BN skill and explore how different constraints, such as shoreline change characteristics (eroding, stable, accreting), distance to nearby inlets and island width, affect the probability distributions of future morphological characteristics. Our work demonstrates that a skillful BN can be constructed and that factors such as distance to inlet, shoreline change rate, and the presence of human alterations have the strongest influences on network performance. For Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, we find that different shoreline change behaviors affect the probabilities of specific geomorphic characteristics, such as dune height, which allows us to identify vulnerable locations on the barrier island where habitat or infrastructure may be vulnerable to storms and sea-level rise.

  11. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight...... benchmark problems have demonstrated that the proposed method can perform information aggregation efficiently in data modeling....

  12. Random Deep Belief Networks for Recognizing Emotions from Speech Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Guihua; Li, Huihui; Huang, Jubing; Li, Danyang; Xun, Eryang

    2017-01-01

    Now the human emotions can be recognized from speech signals using machine learning methods; however, they are challenged by the lower recognition accuracies in real applications due to lack of the rich representation ability. Deep belief networks (DBN) can automatically discover the multiple levels of representations in speech signals. To make full of its advantages, this paper presents an ensemble of random deep belief networks (RDBN) method for speech emotion recognition. It firstly extracts the low level features of the input speech signal and then applies them to construct lots of random subspaces. Each random subspace is then provided for DBN to yield the higher level features as the input of the classifier to output an emotion label. All outputted emotion labels are then fused through the majority voting to decide the final emotion label for the input speech signal. The conducted experimental results on benchmark speech emotion databases show that RDBN has better accuracy than the compared methods for speech emotion recognition.

  13. Sentimen Analisis Tweet Berbahasa Indonesia Dengan Deep Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ira zulfa

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sentiment analysis is a computational research of opinion sentiment and emotion which is expressed in textual mode. Twitter becomes the most popular communication device among internet users. Deep Learning is a new area of machine learning research. It aims to move machine learning closer to its main goal, artificial intelligence. The purpose of deep learning is to change the manual of engineering with learning. At its growth, deep learning has algorithms arrangement that focus on non-linear data representation. One of the machine learning methods is Deep Belief Network (DBN. Deep Belief Network (DBN, which is included in Deep Learning method, is a stack of several algorithms with some extraction features that optimally utilize all resources. This study has two points. First, it aims to classify positive, negative, and neutral sentiments towards the test data. Second, it determines the classification model accuracy by using Deep Belief Network method so it would be able to be applied into the tweet classification, to highlight the sentiment class of training data tweet in Bahasa Indonesia. Based on the experimental result, it can be concluded that the best method in managing tweet data is the DBN method with an accuracy of 93.31%, compared with  Naive Bayes method which has an accuracy of 79.10%, and SVM (Support Vector Machine method with an accuracy of 92.18%.

  14. Efficient design and inference in distributed Bayesian networks: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Oude, P.; Groen, F.C.A.; Pavlin, G.; Bezhanishvili, N.; Löbner, S.; Schwabe, K.; Spada, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses an approach to distributed Bayesian modeling and inference, which is relevant for an important class of contemporary real world situation assessment applications. By explicitly considering the locality of causal relations, the presented approach (i) supports coherent distributed

  15. Distributed Diagnosis in Uncertain Environments Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a distributed Bayesian fault diagnosis scheme for physical systems. Our diagnoser design is based on a procedure for factoring the global system...

  16. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

  17. Utilization of extended bayesian networks in decision making under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Eeckhout, Edward M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network tool (called IKE for Integrated Knowledge Engine) has been developed to assess the probability of undesirable events. The tool allows indications and observables from sensors and/or intelligence to feed directly into hypotheses of interest, thus allowing one to quantify the probability and uncertainty of these events resulting from very disparate evidence. For example, the probability that a facility is processing nuclear fuel or assembling a weapon can be assessed by examining the processes required, establishing the observables that should be present, then assembling information from intelligence, sensors and other information sources related to the observables. IKE also has the capability to determine tasking plans, that is, prioritize which observable should be collected next to most quickly ascertain the 'true' state and drive the probability toward 'zero' or 'one.' This optimization capability is called 'evidence marshaling.' One example to be discussed is a denied facility monitoring situation; there is concern that certain process(es) are being executed at the site (due to some intelligence or other data). We will show how additional pieces of evidence will then ascertain with some degree of certainty the likelihood of this process(es) as each piece of evidence is obtained. This example shows how both intelligence and sensor data can be incorporated into the analysis. A second example involves real-time perimeter security. For this demonstration we used seismic, acoustic, and optical sensors linked back to IKE. We show how these sensors identified and assessed the likelihood of 'intruder' versus friendly vehicles.

  18. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

    2009-02-15

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

  19. Analysis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk factors with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussem, Alex; de Morais, Sérgio Rodrigues; Corbex, Marilys

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new graphical framework for extracting the relevant dietary, social and environmental risk factors that are associated with an increased risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) on a case-control epidemiologic study that consists of 1289 subjects and 150 risk factors. This framework builds on the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) for representing statistical dependencies between the random variables. We discuss a novel constraint-based procedure, called Hybrid Parents and Children (HPC), that builds recursively a local graph that includes all the relevant features statistically associated to the NPC, without having to find the whole BN first. The local graph is afterwards directed by the domain expert according to his knowledge. It provides a statistical profile of the recruited population, and meanwhile helps identify the risk factors associated to NPC. Extensive experiments on synthetic data sampled from known BNs show that the HPC outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that appeared in the recent literature. From a biological perspective, the present study confirms that chemical products, pesticides and domestic fume intake from incomplete combustion of coal and wood are significantly associated with NPC risk. These results suggest that industrial workers are often exposed to noxious chemicals and poisonous substances that are used in the course of manufacturing. This study also supports previous findings that the consumption of a number of preserved food items, like house made proteins and sheep fat, are a major risk factor for NPC. BNs are valuable data mining tools for the analysis of epidemiologic data. They can explicitly combine both expert knowledge from the field and information inferred from the data. These techniques therefore merit consideration as valuable alternatives to traditional multivariate regression techniques in epidemiologic studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  1. Bayesian networks applied to process diagnostics. Applications in energy industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widarsson, Bjoern (ed.); Karlsson, Christer; Dahlquist, Erik [Maelardalen Univ., Vaesteraas (Sweden); Nielsen, Thomas D.; Jensen, Finn V. [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark)

    2004-10-01

    Uncertainty in process operation occurs frequently in heat and power industry. This makes it hard to find the occurrence of an abnormal process state from a number of process signals (measurements) or find the correct cause to an abnormality. Among several other methods, Bayesian Networks (BN) is a method to build a model which can handle uncertainty in both process signals and the process itself. The purpose of this project is to investigate the possibilities to use BN for fault detection and diagnostics in combined heat and power industries through execution of two different applications. Participants from Aalborg University represent the knowledge of BN and participants from Maelardalen University have the experience from modelling heat and power applications. The co-operation also includes two energy companies; Elsam A/S (Nordjyllandsverket) and Maelarenergi AB (Vaesteraas CHP-plant), where the two applications are made with support from the plant personnel. The project ended out in two quite different applications. At Nordjyllandsverket, an application based (due to the lack of process knowledge) on pure operation data is build with capability to detect an abnormal process state in a coal mill. Detection is made through a conflict analysis when entering process signals into a model built by analysing the operation database. The application at Maelarenergi is built with a combination of process knowledge and operation data and can detect various faults caused by the fuel. The process knowledge is used to build a causal network structure and the structure is then trained by data from the operation database. Both applications are made as off-online applications, but they are ready for being run on-line. The performance of fault detection and diagnostics are good, but a lack of abnormal process states with known cause reduces the evaluation possibilities. Advantages with combining expert knowledge of the process with operation data are the possibility to represent

  2. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Yunfei; Tong, Jiejuan; Zhang, Liguo, E-mail: lgzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Qin

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM.

  3. Fuzzy knowledge base construction through belief networks based on Lukasiewicz logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara-Rosano, Felipe

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, a procedure is proposed to build a fuzzy knowledge base founded on fuzzy belief networks and Lukasiewicz logic. Fuzzy procedures are developed to do the following: to assess the belief values of a consequent, in terms of the belief values of its logical antecedents and the belief value of the corresponding logical function; and to update belief values when new evidence is available.

  4. The use of Bayesian Networks in Detecting the States of Ventilation Mills in Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Vujnović

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a new method of predictive maintenance which can detect the states of coal grinding mills in thermal power plants using Bayesian networks. Several possible structures of Bayesian networks are proposed for solving this problem and one of them is implemented and tested on an actual system. This method uses acoustic signals and statistical signal pre-processing tools to compute the inputs of the Bayesian network. After that the network is trained and tested using signals measured in the vicinity of the mill in the period of 2 months. The goal of this algorithm is to increase the efficiency of the coal grinding process and reduce the maintenance cost by eliminating the unnecessary maintenance checks of the system.

  5. Intention Recognition for Partial-Order Plans Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Krauthausen, Peter; Hanebeck, Uwe D.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a novel probabilistic approach to intention recognition for partial-order plans is proposed. The key idea is to exploit independences between subplans to substantially reduce the state space sizes in the compiled Dynamic Bayesian Networks. This makes inference more efficient. The main con- tributions are the computationally exploitable definition of subplan structures, the introduction of a novel Lay- ered Intention Model and a Dynamic Bayesian Net- work representation with an ...

  6. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  7. Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

  8. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  9. Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.

  10. Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

    2009-01-01

    Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

  11. Understanding Migration as an Adaptation in Deltas Using a Bayesian Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, A. N.; Adams, H.; de Campos, R. S.; Mortreux, C. C.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Amisigo, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Deltas are hotspots of high population density, fertile lands and dramatic environmental and anthropogenic pressures and changes. Amongst other environmental factors, sea level rise, soil salinization, water shortages and erosion threaten people's livelihoods and wellbeing. As a result, there is a growing concern that significant environmental change induced migration might occur from these areas. Migration, however, is already happening for economic, education and other reasons (e.g. livelihood change, marriage, planned relocation, etc.). Migration hence has multiple, interlinked drivers and depending on the perspective, can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon. The DECCMA project (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) studies migration as part of a suite of adaptation options available to the coastal populations in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, the Mahanadi delta in India and the Volta delta in Ghana. It aims to develop a holistic framework of analysis that assesses the impact of climate and environmental change on the migration patterns of these areas. This assessment framework will couple environmental, socio-economics and governance dimensions in an attempt to synthesise drivers and barriers and allow testing of plausible future scenarios. One of the integrative methods of DECCMA is a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model describing the decision-making of a coastal household. BBN models are built on qualitative and quantitative observations/expert knowledge and describe the probability of different events/responses etc. BBN models are especially useful to capture uncertainties of large systems and engaging with stakeholders. The DECCMA BBN model is based on household survey results from delta migrant sending areas. This presentation will describe model elements (livelihood sensitivity to climate change, local and national adaptation options, household characteristics/attitude, social networks, household decision) and

  12. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baraldi, Piero; Podofillini, Luca; Mkrtchyan, Lusine; Zio, Enrico; Dang, Vinh N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  13. Using literature and data to learn Bayesian networks as clinical models of ovarian tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antal, Peter; Fannes, Geert; Timmerman, Dirk; Moreau, Yves; De Moor, Bart

    2004-03-01

    Thanks to its increasing availability, electronic literature has become a potential source of information for the development of complex Bayesian networks (BN), when human expertise is missing or data is scarce or contains much noise. This opportunity raises the question of how to integrate information from free-text resources with statistical data in learning Bayesian networks. Firstly, we report on the collection of prior information resources in the ovarian cancer domain, which includes "kernel" annotations of the domain variables. We introduce methods based on the annotations and literature to derive informative pairwise dependency measures, which are derived from the statistical cooccurrence of the names of the variables, from the similarity of the "kernel" descriptions of the variables and from a combined method. We perform wide-scale evaluation of these text-based dependency scores against an expert reference and against data scores (the mutual information (MI) and a Bayesian score). Next, we transform the text-based dependency measures into informative text-based priors for Bayesian network structures. Finally, we report the benefit of such informative text-based priors on the performance of a Bayesian network for the classification of ovarian tumors from clinical data.

  14. Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e

    2015-01-01

    This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

  15. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  16. Probabilistic safety assessment model in consideration of human factors based on object-oriented bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Zhongbao; Zhou Jinglun; Sun Quan

    2007-01-01

    Effect of Human factors on system safety is increasingly serious, which is often ignored in traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods however. A new probabilistic safety assessment model based on object-oriented Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Human factors are integrated into the existed event sequence diagrams. Then the classes of the object-oriented Bayesian networks are constructed which are converted to latent Bayesian networks for inference. Finally, the inference results are integrated into event sequence diagrams for probabilistic safety assessment. The new method is applied to the accident of loss of coolant in a nuclear power plant. the results show that the model is not only applicable to real-time situation assessment, but also applicable to situation assessment based certain amount of information. The modeling complexity is kept down and the new method is appropriate to large complex systems due to the thoughts of object-oriented. (authors)

  17. Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e, E-mail: mgomes@con.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

  18. Approximation Methods for Inference and Learning in Belief Networks: Progress and Future Directions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pazzan, Michael

    1997-01-01

    .... In this research project, we have investigated methods and implemented algorithms for efficiently making certain classes of inference in belief networks, and for automatically learning certain...

  19. Constitution and application of reactor make-up system's fault diagnostic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Jie; Cai Qi; Chu Zhuli; Wang Haiping

    2013-01-01

    A fault diagnostic Bayesian network of reactor make-up system was constituted. The system's structure characters, operation rules and experts' experience were combined and an initial net was built. As the fault date sets were learned with the particle swarm optimization based Bayesian network structure, the structure of diagnostic net was completed and used to inference case. The built net can analyze diagnostic probability of every node in the net and afford assistant decision to fault diagnosis. (authors)

  20. Using literature and data to learn Bayesian networks as clinical models of ovarian tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antal, P.; Fannes, G.; Timmerman, D.

    2004-01-01

    Thanks to its increasing availability, electronic literature has become a potential source of information for the development of complex Bayesian networks (BN), when human expertise is missing or data is scarce or contains much noise. This opportunity raises the question of how to integrate...... information from free-text resources with statistical data in learning Bayesian networks. Firstly, we report on the collection of prior information resources in the ovarian cancer domain, which includes "kernel" annotations of the domain variables. We introduce methods based on the annotations and literature...

  1. Random Deep Belief Networks for Recognizing Emotions from Speech Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guihua Wen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Now the human emotions can be recognized from speech signals using machine learning methods; however, they are challenged by the lower recognition accuracies in real applications due to lack of the rich representation ability. Deep belief networks (DBN can automatically discover the multiple levels of representations in speech signals. To make full of its advantages, this paper presents an ensemble of random deep belief networks (RDBN method for speech emotion recognition. It firstly extracts the low level features of the input speech signal and then applies them to construct lots of random subspaces. Each random subspace is then provided for DBN to yield the higher level features as the input of the classifier to output an emotion label. All outputted emotion labels are then fused through the majority voting to decide the final emotion label for the input speech signal. The conducted experimental results on benchmark speech emotion databases show that RDBN has better accuracy than the compared methods for speech emotion recognition.

  2. SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui; Wang Huaning; Cui Yanmei

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN R ) and feature extracted data (BN F ), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN R and the BN F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

  3. Hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Hui-feng

    2018-03-01

    As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve this problem, a hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness mechanism is proposed for high-speed optical access networks. This approach builds a so-called hierarchy Bayesian model, according to the structure of typical optical access networks. Moreover, the proposed scheme is able to conduct simple services awareness operation in each optical network unit (ONU) and to perform complex services awareness from the whole view of system in optical line terminal (OLT). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve better quality of services (QoS), in terms of packet loss rate and time delay.

  4. Upper-Lower Bounds Candidate Sets Searching Algorithm for Bayesian Network Structure Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is an important theoretical model in artificial intelligence field and also a powerful tool for processing uncertainty issues. Considering the slow convergence speed of current Bayesian network structure learning algorithms, a fast hybrid learning method is proposed in this paper. We start with further analysis of information provided by low-order conditional independence testing, and then two methods are given for constructing graph model of network, which is theoretically proved to be upper and lower bounds of the structure space of target network, so that candidate sets are given as a result; after that a search and scoring algorithm is operated based on the candidate sets to find the final structure of the network. Simulation results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper is more efficient than similar algorithms with the same learning precision.

  5. The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantinou, Anthony C; Fenton, Norman

    2017-01-01

    In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL) investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor's perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events.

  6. The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony C Constantinou

    Full Text Available In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor's perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events.

  7. The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Norman

    2017-01-01

    In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL) investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor’s perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net profits from rental income, and this hits risk-seeking investors who favour leverage much harder than risk-averse investors who do not seek to expand their property portfolio. The impact on net profits also poses substantial risks for lossmaking returns excluding capital gains, especially in the case of rising interest rates. While this makes it less desirable or even non-viable for some to continue being a landlord, based on the current status of all factors taken into consideration for simulation, investment prospects are still likely to remain good within a reasonable range of interest rate and capital growth rate variations. The results also suggest that the recent trend of property prices in London increasing faster than rents will not continue for much longer; either capital growth rates will have to decrease, rental growth rates will have to increase, or we shall observe a combination of the two events. PMID:28654698

  8. MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

  9. Featuring Multiple Local Optima to Assist the User in the Interpretation of Induced Bayesian Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Pena, Jose; Kocka, Tomas

    2004-01-01

    We propose a method to assist the user in the interpretation of the best Bayesian network model indu- ced from data. The method consists in extracting relevant features from the model (e.g. edges, directed paths and Markov blankets) and, then, assessing the con¯dence in them by studying multiple...

  10. Preliminary investigation to use Bayesian networks in predicting NOx, CO, CO2 and HC emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karri, V.; Hafez, H.A.; Kristiansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    A Bayesian network was used to characterize Lister-Petter diesel combustion engine emissions. Three sets of tests were conducted: (1) full open throttle; (2) 68 per cent closed throttle; and (3) 58 per cent closed throttle. The first test simulated normal lean burning conditions, while the last 2 tests simulated a clogged air filter. Experiments were conducted in an engine generator assembly with a fixed speed governor of 1500 rpm. Electrochemical sensors were used to detect nitrogen oxide (NO x ); carbon dioxide (CO 2 ); carbon monoxide (CO); hydrocarbons; and particulate matter. Engine oil, engine outlet, and engine inlet and exhaust temperatures were digitally measured. Data from 20 experimental sets of tests were used to train, test and project accurate emission levels. The Bayesian network model was built using input variables and measured output parameters related to the exhaust components. Human knowledge was used to build relationships between defined nodes and a path condition algorithm. An estimation-maximization algorithm was used. Results of the validation study showed that the Bayesian network accurately predicted emissions levels. It was concluded that it is possible to predict engine emission outputs with probable acceptable levels using Bayesian network modelling techniques and limited experimental data. 33 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs

  11. GPU implementation of Bayesian neural network construction for data-intensive applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, Michelle; Meyer-Baese, Anke; Prosper, Harrison B

    2014-01-01

    We describe a graphical processing unit (GPU) implementation of the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) method for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Our implementation uses NVIDIA's parallel computing architecture, CUDA. We briefly review BNNs and the HMC method and we describe our implementations and give preliminary results.

  12. Providing probability distributions for the causal pathogen of clinical mastitis using naive Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Gaag, van der L.C.; Barkema, H.W.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Clinical mastitis (CM) can be caused by a wide variety of pathogens and farmers must start treatment before the actual causal pathogen is known. By providing a probability distribution for the causal pathogen, naive Bayesian networks (NBN) can serve as a management tool for farmers to decide which

  13. Bayesian networks for clinical decision support: A rational approach to dynamic decision-making under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerven, M.A.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation deals with decision support in the context of clinical oncology. (Dynamic) Bayesian networks are used as a framework for (dynamic) decision-making under uncertainty and applied to a variety of diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment problems in medicine. It is shown that the proposed

  14. Feature selection for Bayesian network classifiers using the MDL-FS score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drugan, Madalina M.; Wiering, Marco A.

    When constructing a Bayesian network classifier from data, the more or less redundant features included in a dataset may bias the classifier and as a consequence may result in a relatively poor classification accuracy. In this paper, we study the problem of selecting appropriate subsets of features

  15. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

  16. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  17. Learning the Structure of Bayesian Network from Small Amount of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan COCU

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Many areas of artificial intelligence must handling with imperfection ofinformation. One of the ways to do this is using representation and reasoning withBayesian networks. Creation of a Bayesian network consists in two stages. First stage isto design the node structure and directed links between them. Choosing of a structurefor network can be done either through empirical developing by human experts orthrough machine learning algorithm. The second stage is completion of probabilitytables for each node. Using a machine learning method is useful, especially when wehave a big amount of leaning data. But in many fields the amount of data is small,incomplete and inconsistent. In this paper, we make a case study for choosing the bestlearning method for small amount of learning data. Means more experiments we dropconclusion of using existent methods for learning a network structure.

  18. Hypothesis Management Framework: a exible design pattern for belief networks in decision support systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosliga, S.P. van; Voorde, I. van de

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses a design pattern for building belief networks for application domains in which causal models are hard to construct. In this approach we pursue a modular belief network structure that is easily extended by the users themselves, while remaining reliable for decision support. The

  19. Single and combined fault diagnosis of reciprocating compressor valves using a hybrid deep belief network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tran, Van Tung; Thobiani, Faisal Al; Tinga, Tiedo; Ball, Andrew David; Niu, Gang

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid deep belief network is proposed to diagnose single and combined faults of suction and discharge valves in a reciprocating compressor. This hybrid integrates the deep belief network structured by multiple stacked restricted Boltzmann machines for pre-training and simplified

  20. A study on the quantitative evaluation of the reliability for safety critical software using Bayesian belief nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Jang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-01-01

    Despite the efforts to avoid undesirable risks, or at least to bring them under control in the world, new risks that are highly difficult to manage continue to emerge from the use of new technologies, such as the use of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) components in nuclear power plant. Whenever new risk issues came out by now, we have endeavored to find the most effective ways to reduce risks, or to allocate limited resources to do this. One of the major challenges is the reliability analysis of safety-critical software associated with digital safety systems. Though many activities such as testing, verification and validation (V and V) techniques have been carried out in the design stage of software, however, the process of quantitatively evaluating the reliability of safety-critical software has not yet been developed because of the irrelevance of the conventional software reliability techniques to apply for the digital safety systems. This paper focuses on the applicability of Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) techniques to quantitatively estimate the reliability of safety-critical software adopted in digital safety system. In this paper, a typical BBN model was constructed using the dedication process of the Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) installed by KAERI. In conclusion, the adoption of BBN technique can facilitate the process of evaluating the safety-critical software reliability in nuclear power plant, as well as provide very useful information (e.g., 'what if' analysis) associated with software reliability in the viewpoint of practicality

  1. A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions

  2. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  3. Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin W. Y. Lo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients. Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs. Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

  4. Prediction of maize phenotype based on whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphisms using deep belief networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmatia, H.; Kusuma, W. A.; Hasibuan, L. S.

    2017-05-01

    Selection in plant breeding could be more effective and more efficient if it is based on genomic data. Genomic selection (GS) is a new approach for plant-breeding selection that exploits genomic data through a mechanism called genomic prediction (GP). Most of GP models used linear methods that ignore effects of interaction among genes and effects of higher order nonlinearities. Deep belief network (DBN), one of the architectural in deep learning methods, is able to model data in high level of abstraction that involves nonlinearities effects of the data. This study implemented DBN for developing a GP model utilizing whole-genome Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) as data for training and testing. The case study was a set of traits in maize. The maize dataset was acquisitioned from CIMMYT’s (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) Global Maize program. Based on Pearson correlation, DBN is outperformed than other methods, kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian LASSO (BL), best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP), in case allegedly non-additive traits. DBN achieves correlation of 0.579 within -1 to 1 range.

  5. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  6. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  7. Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parameswaran Ramachandran

    Full Text Available Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

  8. Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

    2006-01-01

    Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

  9. A Bayesian Approach to Measurement Bias in Networking Studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Ling; Robinson, Scott E.; Torenvlied, René

    2014-01-01

    The study of managerial networking has been growing in the field of public administration; a field that analyzes how managers in open system organizations interact with different external actors and organizations. Coincident with this interest in managerial networking is the use of self-reported

  10. Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

    2016-08-01

    Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

  11. A bayesian inference-based detection mechanism to defend medical smartphone networks against insider attacks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Weizhi; Li, Wenjuan; Xiang, Yang

    2017-01-01

    and experience for both patients and healthcare workers, and the underlying network architecture to support such devices is also referred to as medical smartphone networks (MSNs). MSNs, similar to other networks, are subject to a wide range of attacks (e.g. leakage of sensitive patient information by a malicious...... insider). In this work, we focus on MSNs and present a compact but efficient trust-based approach using Bayesian inference to identify malicious nodes in such an environment. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in detecting malicious nodes by evaluating the deployment of our proposed...

  12. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolář Michal

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With increased experimental availability and accuracy of bio-molecular networks, tools for their comparative and evolutionary analysis are needed. A key component for such studies is the alignment of networks. Results We introduce the Bioconductor package GraphAlignment for pairwise alignment of bio-molecular networks. The alignment incorporates information both from network vertices and network edges and is based on an explicit evolutionary model, allowing inference of all scoring parameters directly from empirical data. We compare the performance of our algorithm to an alternative algorithm, Græmlin 2.0. On simulated data, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 in several benchmarks except for computational complexity. When there is little or no noise in the data, GraphAlignment is slower than Græmlin 2.0. It is faster than Græmlin 2.0 when processing noisy data containing spurious vertex associations. Its typical case complexity grows approximately as O(N2.6. On empirical bacterial protein-protein interaction networks (PIN and gene co-expression networks, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 with respect to coverage and specificity, albeit by a small margin. On large eukaryotic PIN, Græmlin 2.0 outperforms GraphAlignment. Conclusions The GraphAlignment algorithm is robust to spurious vertex associations, correctly resolves paralogs, and shows very good performance in identification of homologous vertices defined by high vertex and/or interaction similarity. The simplicity and generality of GraphAlignment edge scoring makes the algorithm an appropriate choice for global alignment of networks.

  13. CGBayesNets: conditional Gaussian Bayesian network learning and inference with mixed discrete and continuous data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGeachie, Michael J; Chang, Hsun-Hsien; Weiss, Scott T

    2014-06-01

    Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com.

  14. SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalet, A; Phillips, M; Gennari, J

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the

  15. SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalet, A; Phillips, M; Gennari, J [UniversityWashington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the

  16. BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE PROCESS OF IDENTIFICATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Czyżewska

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian belief networks are applied in determining the most important factors of the innovativeness level of national economies. The paper is divided into two parts. The first presentsthe basic theory of Bayesian networks whereas in the second, the belief networks have been generated by an inhouse developed computer system called BeliefSEEKER which was implemented to generate the determinants influencing the innovativeness level of national economies.Qualitative analysis of the generated belief networks provided a way to define a set of the most important dimensions influencing the innovativeness level of economies and then the indicators that form these dimensions. It has been proven that Bayesian networks are very effective methods for multidimensional analysis and forming conclusions and recommendations regarding the strength of each innovative determinant influencing the overall performance of a country’s economy.

  17. Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Sohanur

    2017-12-01

    Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

  18. Bus Route Design with a Bayesian Network Analysis of Bus Service Revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian network is used to estimate revenues of bus services in consideration of the effect of bus travel demands, passenger transport distances, and so on. In this research, the area X in Beijing has been selected as the study area because of its relatively high bus travel demand and, on the contrary, unsatisfactory bus services. It is suggested that the proposed Bayesian network approach is able to rationally predict the probabilities of different revenues of various route services, from the perspectives of both satisfying passenger demand and decreasing bus operation cost. This way, the existing bus routes in the studied area can be optimized for their most probable high revenues.

  19. Development of an internet based system for modeling biotin metabolism using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jinglei; Wang, Dong; Schlegel, Vicki; Zempleni, Janos

    2011-11-01

    Biotin is an essential water-soluble vitamin crucial for maintaining normal body functions. The importance of biotin for human health has been under-appreciated but there is plenty of opportunity for future research with great importance for human health. Currently, carrying out predictions of biotin metabolism involves tedious manual manipulations. In this paper, we report the development of BiotinNet, an internet based program that uses Bayesian networks to integrate published data on various aspects of biotin metabolism. Users can provide a combination of values on the levels of biotin related metabolites to obtain the predictions on other metabolites that are not specified. As an inherent feature of Bayesian networks, the uncertainty of the prediction is also quantified and reported to the user. This program enables convenient in silico experiments regarding biotin metabolism, which can help researchers design future experiments while new data can be continuously incorporated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Gender differences in collaborative learning over online social networks: Epistemological beliefs and behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosanna Y.-Y. Chan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Online social networks are popular venues for computer-supported collaborative work and computer-supported collaborative learning. Professionals within the same discipline, such as software developers, often interact over various social network sites for knowledge updates and collective understandings. The current study aims at gathering empirical evidences concerning gender differences in online social network beliefs and behaviors. A total of 53 engineering postgraduate students were engaged in a blogging community for collaborative learning. Participants’ beliefs about collaboration and nature of knowledge and knowing (i.e. epistemological beliefs are investigated. More specifically, social network analysis metrics including in-degree, out-degree, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality are obtained from an 8-interval longitudinal SNA. Methodologically speaking, the current work puts forward mixed methods of longitudinal SNA and quantitative beliefs survey to explore online social network participants’ beliefs and behaviors. The study’s findings demonstrate significant gender differences in collaborative learning through online social networks, including (1 female engineering postgraduate students engage significantly more actively in online communications, (2 male engineering postgraduate students are more likely to be the potential controllers of information flows, and (3 gender differences exist in belief gains related to social aspects, but not individual's epistemic aspects. Overall, participants in both genders demonstrated enhanced beliefs in collaboration as well as the nature of knowledge and knowing.

  1. A deep belief network with PLSR for nonlinear system modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Junfei; Wang, Gongming; Li, Wenjing; Li, Xiaoli

    2017-10-31

    Nonlinear system modeling plays an important role in practical engineering, and deep learning-based deep belief network (DBN) is now popular in nonlinear system modeling and identification because of the strong learning ability. However, the existing weights optimization for DBN is based on gradient, which always leads to a local optimum and a poor training result. In this paper, a DBN with partial least square regression (PLSR-DBN) is proposed for nonlinear system modeling, which focuses on the problem of weights optimization for DBN using PLSR. Firstly, unsupervised contrastive divergence (CD) algorithm is used in weights initialization. Secondly, initial weights derived from CD algorithm are optimized through layer-by-layer PLSR modeling from top layer to bottom layer. Instead of gradient method, PLSR-DBN can determine the optimal weights using several PLSR models, so that a better performance of PLSR-DBN is achieved. Then, the analysis of convergence is theoretically given to guarantee the effectiveness of the proposed PLSR-DBN model. Finally, the proposed PLSR-DBN is tested on two benchmark nonlinear systems and an actual wastewater treatment system as well as a handwritten digit recognition (nonlinear mapping and modeling) with high-dimension input data. The experiment results show that the proposed PLSR-DBN has better performances of time and accuracy on nonlinear system modeling than that of other methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Academic Activities Transaction Extraction Based on Deep Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangqian Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Extracting information about academic activity transactions from unstructured documents is a key problem in the analysis of academic behaviors of researchers. The academic activities transaction includes five elements: person, activities, objects, attributes, and time phrases. The traditional method of information extraction is to extract shallow text features and then to recognize advanced features from text with supervision. Since the information processing of different levels is completed in steps, the error generated from various steps will be accumulated and affect the accuracy of final results. However, because Deep Belief Network (DBN model has the ability to automatically unsupervise learning of the advanced features from shallow text features, the model is employed to extract the academic activities transaction. In addition, we use character-based feature to describe the raw features of named entities of academic activity, so as to improve the accuracy of named entity recognition. In this paper, the accuracy of the academic activities extraction is compared by using character-based feature vector and word-based feature vector to express the text features, respectively, and with the traditional text information extraction based on Conditional Random Fields. The results show that DBN model is more effective for the extraction of academic activities transaction information.

  3. A deep belief network approach using VDRAS data for nowcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Lei; Dai, Jie; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Changjiang; Feng, Hanlei

    2018-04-01

    Nowcasting or very short-term forecasting convective storms is still a challenging problem due to the high nonlinearity and insufficient observation of convective weather. As the understanding of the physical mechanism of convective weather is also insufficient, the numerical weather model cannot predict convective storms well. Machine learning approaches provide a potential way to nowcast convective storms using various meteorological data. In this study, a deep belief network (DBN) is proposed to nowcast convective storms using the real-time re-analysis meteorological data. The nowcasting problem is formulated as a classification problem. The 3D meteorological variables are fed directly to the DBN with dimension of input layer 6*6*80. Three hidden layers are used in the DBN and the dimension of output layer is two. A box-moving method is presented to provide the input features containing the temporal and spatial information. The results show that the DNB can generate reasonable prediction results of the movement and growth of convective storms.

  4. Isolated guitar transcription using a deep belief network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Burlet

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Music transcription involves the transformation of an audio recording to common music notation, colloquially referred to as sheet music. Manually transcribing audio recordings is a difficult and time-consuming process, even for experienced musicians. In response, several algorithms have been proposed to automatically analyze and transcribe the notes sounding in an audio recording; however, these algorithms are often general-purpose, attempting to process any number of instruments producing any number of notes sounding simultaneously. This paper presents a polyphonic transcription algorithm that is constrained to processing the audio output of a single instrument, specifically an acoustic guitar. The transcription system consists of a novel note pitch estimation algorithm that uses a deep belief network and multi-label learning techniques to generate multiple pitch estimates for each analysis frame of the input audio signal. Using a compiled dataset of synthesized guitar recordings for evaluation, the algorithm described in this work results in an 11% increase in the f-measure of note transcriptions relative to Zhou et al.’s (2009 transcription algorithm in the literature. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of deep, multi-label learning for the task of polyphonic transcription.

  5. Peer beliefs and smoking in adolescence: a longitudinal social network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragan, Daniel T

    2016-03-01

    Peer smoking is one of the strongest predictors of adolescent cigarette use, but less is known about whether other peer characteristics also contribute to this behavior. This study examined the links between adolescent cigarette use and peer beliefs about smoking. It tested whether peer beliefs about smoking are associated with changes in cigarette use, whether this association is a result of changes in individual beliefs about smoking, and how beliefs inform friendship choices. Analyses drew on data collected from 29 school-based networks, each measured at five occasions as students moved from 6th through 9th grade, as part of the study of the PROSPER partnership model. Longitudinal social network models provided estimates of friendship selection and behavior for an average of 6,200 students at each measurement point and more than 9,000 students overall. Peer beliefs about smoking influenced cigarette use both directly and through their impact on individual beliefs. Respondents tended to name friends whose beliefs about smoking were similar to their own, and the likelihood of being named as a friend was higher for those who reported more positive beliefs about smoking. The results from this study suggest that peer beliefs about smoking, in addition to peer cigarette use itself, are associated with adolescent smoking through several mechanisms. Because beliefs favorable to cigarette use are present before adolescents actually smoke, these results underscore the importance of implementing smoking prevention programs in early adolescence.

  6. Predicting Hospital Admission for Emergency Department Patients using a Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Leegon, Jeffrey; Jones, Ian; Lanaghan, Kevin; Aronsky, Dominik

    2005-01-01

    Hospital admission delays in the Emergency Department (ED) reduce volume capacity and contribute to the nation’s ED diversion problem. This study evaluated the accuracy of a Bayesian network for the early prediction of hospital admission status using data from 16,900 ED encounters. The final model included nine variables that are commonly available in many ED settings. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.894 (95% CI: 0.887-0.902) for the validati...

  7. Sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks using a symbolic-numerical technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Kjaerulff, Uffe

    2003-01-01

    The paper discusses the problem of sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks. The algebraic structure of the conditional means and variances, as rational functions involving linear and quadratic functions of the parameters, are used to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In particular the probabilities of conditional variables exceeding given values and related probabilities are analyzed. Two examples of application are used to illustrate all the concepts and methods

  8. How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

    OpenAIRE

    Fenton, N.; Neil, M.; Lagnado, D.; Marsh, W.; Yet, B.; Constantinou, A.

    2016-01-01

    We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed ‘solution’, which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We pro...

  9. Bayesian network modelling on data from fine needle aspiration cytology examination for breast cancer diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Xuemei; Cao, Yi; Zhai, Jia; Maguire, Liam; Li, Yuhua; Yang, Hongqin; Wang, Yuhua; Zeng, Jinshu; Liu, Shuo

    2017-01-01

    The paper employed Bayesian network (BN) modelling approach to discover causal dependencies among different data features of Breast Cancer Wisconsin Dataset (BCWD) derived from openly sourced UCI repository. K2 learning algorithm and k-fold cross validation were used to construct and optimize BN structure. Compared to Na‹ve Bayes (NB), the obtained BN presented better performance for breast cancer diagnosis based on fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) examination. It also showed that, amon...

  10. Learning Bayesian network structure: towards the essential graph by integer linear programming tools

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Studený, Milan; Haws, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 4 (2014), s. 1043-1071 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-20012S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * integer linear programming * characteristic imset * essential graph Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.451, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/MTR/studeny-0427002.pdf

  11. Bayesian Network Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Safety Based on Flight Delays

    OpenAIRE

    Huawei Wang; Jun Gao

    2013-01-01

    Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build ...

  12. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

  13. Online variational Bayesian filtering-based mobile target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

    2014-11-11

    The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  14. Validation & verification of a Bayesian network model for aircraft vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schietekat, Sunelle

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available on the African Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Network (AVN) project where she was based at Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory (HartRAO). Sunelle is certified as an Associate Systems Engineering Professional (ASEP) at INCOSE. Alta de Waal...

  15. Reliability estimation of safety-critical software-based systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.

    2001-06-01

    Due to the nature of software faults and the way they cause system failures new methods are needed for the safety and reliability evaluation of software-based safety-critical automation systems in nuclear power plants. In the research project 'Programmable automation system safety integrity assessment (PASSI)', belonging to the Finnish Nuclear Safety Research Programme (FINNUS, 1999-2002), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. The project is financed together by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM) and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). In this report the applicability of Bayesian networks to the reliability estimation of software-based systems is studied. The applicability is evaluated by building Bayesian network models for the systems of interest and performing simulations for these models. In the simulations hypothetical evidence is used for defining the parameter relations and for determining the ability to compensate disparate evidence in the models. Based on the experiences from modelling and simulations we are able to conclude that Bayesian networks provide a good method for the reliability estimation of software-based systems. (orig.)

  16. Unavailability analysis of a PWR safety system by a Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estevao, Lilian B.; Melo, Paulo Fernando F. Frutuoso e; Rivero, Jose J.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BN) are directed acyclic graphs that have dependencies between variables, which are represented by nodes. These dependencies are represented by lines connecting the nodes and can be directed or not. Thus, it is possible to model conditional probabilities and calculate them with the help of Bayes' Theorem. The objective of this paper is to present the modeling of the failure of a safety system of a typical second generation light water reactor plant, the Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS), whose function is to cool the water of containment reservoir being recirculated through the Containment Spray Recirculation System (CSRS). CSRS is automatically initiated after a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and together with the CHRS cools the reservoir water. The choice of this system was due to the fact that its analysis by a fault tree is available in Appendix II of the Reactor Safety Study Report (WASH-1400), and therefore all the necessary technical information is also available, such as system diagrams, failure data input and the fault tree itself that was developed to study system failure. The reason for the use of a bayesian network in this context was to assess its ability to reproduce the results of fault tree analyses and also verify the feasibility of treating dependent events. Comparing the fault trees and bayesian networks, the results obtained for the system failure were very close. (author)

  17. Software Delivery Risk Management: Application of Bayesian Networks in Agile Software Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ancveire Ieva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The information technology industry cannot be imagined without large- or small-scale projects. They are implemented to develop systems enabling key business processes and improving performance and enterprise resource management. However, projects often experience various difficulties during their execution. These problems are usually related to the three objectives of the project – costs, quality and deadline. A way these challenges can be solved is project risk management. However, not always the main problems and their influencing factors can be easily identified. Usually there is a need for a more profound analysis of the problem situation. In this paper, we propose the use of a Bayesian Network concept for quantitative risk management in agile projects. The Bayesian Network is explored using a case study focusing on a project that faces difficulties during the software delivery process. We explain why an agile risk analysis is needed and assess the potential risk factors, which may occur during the project. Thereafter, we design the Bayesian Network to capture the actual problem situation and make suggestions how to improve the delivery process based on the measures to be taken to reduce the occurrence of project risks.

  18. Analyzing the effect of introducing a kurtosis parameter in Gaussian Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main, P.; Navarro, H.

    2009-01-01

    Gaussian Bayesian networks are graphical models that represent the dependence structure of a multivariate normal random variable with a directed acyclic graph (DAG). In Gaussian Bayesian networks the output is usually the conditional distribution of some unknown variables of interest given a set of evidential nodes whose values are known. The problem of uncertainty about the assumption of normality is very common in applications. Thus a sensitivity analysis of the non-normality effect in our conclusions could be necessary. The aspect of non-normality to be considered is the tail behavior. In this line, the multivariate exponential power distribution is a family depending on a kurtosis parameter that goes from a leptokurtic to a platykurtic distribution with the normal as a mesokurtic distribution. Therefore a more general model can be considered using the multivariate exponential power distribution to describe the joint distribution of a Bayesian network, with a kurtosis parameter reflecting deviations from the normal distribution. The sensitivity of the conclusions to this perturbation is analyzed using the Kullback-Leibler divergence measure that provides an interesting formula to evaluate the effect

  19. Analyzing the effect of introducing a kurtosis parameter in Gaussian Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Main, P. [Dpto. Estadistica e I.O., Fac. Ciencias Matematicas, Univ. Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: pmain@mat.ucm.es; Navarro, H. [Dpto. de Estadistica, I.O. y Calc. Numerico, Fac. Ciencias, UNED, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2009-05-15

    Gaussian Bayesian networks are graphical models that represent the dependence structure of a multivariate normal random variable with a directed acyclic graph (DAG). In Gaussian Bayesian networks the output is usually the conditional distribution of some unknown variables of interest given a set of evidential nodes whose values are known. The problem of uncertainty about the assumption of normality is very common in applications. Thus a sensitivity analysis of the non-normality effect in our conclusions could be necessary. The aspect of non-normality to be considered is the tail behavior. In this line, the multivariate exponential power distribution is a family depending on a kurtosis parameter that goes from a leptokurtic to a platykurtic distribution with the normal as a mesokurtic distribution. Therefore a more general model can be considered using the multivariate exponential power distribution to describe the joint distribution of a Bayesian network, with a kurtosis parameter reflecting deviations from the normal distribution. The sensitivity of the conclusions to this perturbation is analyzed using the Kullback-Leibler divergence measure that provides an interesting formula to evaluate the effect.

  20. A modified GO-FLOW methodology with common cause failure based on Discrete Time Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Dongming; Wang, Zili; Liu, Linlin; Ren, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Identification of particular causes of failure for common cause failure analysis. • Comparison two formalisms (GO-FLOW and Discrete Time Bayesian network) and establish the correlation between them. • Mapping the GO-FLOW model into Bayesian network model. • Calculated GO-FLOW model with common cause failures based on DTBN. - Abstract: The GO-FLOW methodology is a success-oriented system reliability modelling technique for multi-phase missions involving complex time-dependent, multi-state and common cause failure (CCF) features. However, the analysis algorithm cannot easily handle the multiple shared signals and CCFs. In addition, the simulative algorithm is time consuming when vast multi-state components exist in the model, and the multiple time points of phased mission problems increases the difficulty of the analysis method. In this paper, the Discrete Time Bayesian Network (DTBN) and the GO-FLOW methodology are integrated by the unified mapping rules. Based on these rules, the multi operators can be mapped into DTBN followed by, a complete GO-FLOW model with complex characteristics (e.g. phased mission, multi-state, and CCF) can be converted to the isomorphic DTBN and easily analyzed by utilizing the DTBN. With mature algorithms and tools, the multi-phase mission reliability parameter can be efficiently obtained via the proposed approach without considering the shared signals and the various complex logic operation. Meanwhile, CCF can also arise in the computing process.

  1. Construction of Monitoring Model and Algorithm Design on Passenger Security during Shipping Based on Improved Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

    2014-01-01

    A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping. PMID:25254227

  2. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Michal; Meier, J.; Mustonen, V.; Lässig, M.; Berg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 6, November 21 (2012) ISSN 1752-0509 Grant - others:Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) SFB 680; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) SFB-TR12; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) BE 2478/2-1 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520514 Keywords : Graph alignment * Biological networks * Parameter estimation * Bioconductor Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 2.982, year: 2012

  3. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  4. Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, C. B.; Stingo, F. C.; Vannucci, M.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications since it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins which impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings, and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival. PMID:26514925

  5. Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Orhun; Caers, Jef Karel

    2017-08-01

    Faults are one of the building-blocks for subsurface modeling studies. Incomplete observations of subsurface fault networks lead to uncertainty pertaining to location, geometry and existence of faults. In practice, gaps in incomplete fault network observations are filled based on tectonic knowledge and interpreter's intuition pertaining to fault relationships. Modeling fault network uncertainty with realistic models that represent tectonic knowledge is still a challenge. Although methods that address specific sources of fault network uncertainty and complexities of fault modeling exists, a unifying framework is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a rigorous approach to quantify fault network uncertainty. Fault pattern and intensity information are expressed by means of a marked point process, marked Strauss point process. Fault network information is constrained to fault surface observations (complete or partial) within a Bayesian framework. A structural prior model is defined to quantitatively express fault patterns, geometries and relationships within the Bayesian framework. Structural relationships between faults, in particular fault abutting relations, are represented with a level-set based approach. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to sample posterior fault network realizations that reflect tectonic knowledge and honor fault observations. We apply the methodology to a field study from Nankai Trough & Kumano Basin. The target for uncertainty quantification is a deep site with attenuated seismic data with only partially visible faults and many faults missing from the survey or interpretation. A structural prior model is built from shallow analog sites that are believed to have undergone similar tectonics compared to the site of study. Fault network uncertainty for the field is quantified with fault network realizations that are conditioned to structural rules, tectonic information and partially observed fault surfaces. We show the proposed

  6. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  7. A Belief-Space Approach to Integrated Intelligence - Research Area 10.3: Intelligent Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-05

    A Belief-Space Approach to Integrated Intelligence- Research Area 10.3: Intelligent Networks The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this...Technology (MIT) Title: A Belief-Space Approach to Integrated Intelligence- Research Area 10.3: Intelligent Networks Report Term: 0-Other Email: tlp...students presented progress and received feedback from the research group . o wrote papers on their research and submitted them to leading conferences

  8. Balancing emergency message dissemination and network lifetime in wireless body area network using ant colony optimization and Bayesian game formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Latha

    Full Text Available Nowadays, Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN is emerging very fast and so many new methods and algorithms are coming up for finding the optimal path for disseminating emergency messages. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO is one of the cultural algorithms for solving many hard problems such as Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP. ACO is a natural behaviour of ants, which work stochastically with the help of pheromone trails deposited in the shortest route to find their food. This optimization procedure involves adapting, positive feedback and inherent parallelism. Each ant will deposit certain amount of pheromone in the tour construction it makes searching for food. This type of communication is known as stigmetric communication. In addition, if a dense WBAN environment prevails, such as hospital, i.e. in the environment of overlapping WBAN, game formulation was introduced for analyzing the mixed strategy behaviour of WBAN. In this paper, the ant colony optimization approach to the travelling salesman problem was applied to the WBAN to determine the shortest route for sending emergency message to the doctor via sensor nodes; and also a static Bayesian game formulation with mixed strategy was analysed to enhance the network lifetime. Whenever the patient needs any critical care or any other medical issue arises, emergency messages will be created by the WBAN and sent to the doctor's destination. All the modes of communication were realized in a simulation environment using OMNet++. The authors investigated a balanced model of emergency message dissemination and network lifetime in WBAN using ACO and Bayesian game formulation. Keywords: Wireless body area network, Ant colony optimization, Bayesian game model, Sensor network, Message latency, Network lifetime

  9. Deep Belief Networks Based Toponym Recognition for Chinese Text

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In Geographical Information Systems, geo-coding is used for the task of mapping from implicitly geo-referenced data to explicitly geo-referenced coordinates. At present, an enormous amount of implicitly geo-referenced information is hidden in unstructured text, e.g., Wikipedia, social data and news. Toponym recognition is the foundation of mining this useful geo-referenced information by identifying words as toponyms in text. In this paper, we propose an adapted toponym recognition approach based on deep belief network (DBN by exploring two key issues: word representation and model interpretation. A Skip-Gram model is used in the word representation process to represent words with contextual information that are ignored by current word representation models. We then determine the core hyper-parameters of the DBN model by illustrating the relationship between the performance and the hyper-parameters, e.g., vector dimensionality, DBN structures and probability thresholds. The experiments evaluate the performance of the Skip-Gram model implemented by the Word2Vec open-source tool, determine stable hyper-parameters and compare our approach with a conditional random field (CRF based approach. The experimental results show that the DBN model outperforms the CRF model with smaller corpus. When the corpus size is large enough, their statistical metrics become approaching. However, their recognition results express differences and complementarity on different kinds of toponyms. More importantly, combining their results can directly improve the performance of toponym recognition relative to their individual performances. It seems that the scale of the corpus has an obvious effect on the performance of toponym recognition. Generally, there is no adequate tagged corpus on specific toponym recognition tasks, especially in the era of Big Data. In conclusion, we believe that the DBN-based approach is a promising and powerful method to extract geo

  10. Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

    2015-12-01

    Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

  11. A Bayesian Network Based Adaptability Design of Product Structures for Function Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaobo Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Structure adaptability design is critical for function evolution in product families, in which many structural and functional design factors are intertwined together with manufacturing cost, customer satisfaction, and final market sales. How to achieve a delicate balance among all of these factors to maximize the market performance of the product is too complicated to address based on traditional domain experts’ knowledge or some ad hoc heuristics. Here, we propose a quantitative product evolution design model that is based on Bayesian networks to model the dynamic relationship between customer needs and product structure design. In our model, all of the structural or functional features along with customer satisfaction, manufacturing cost, sale price, market sales, and indirect factors are modeled as random variables denoted as nodes in the Bayesian networks. The structure of the Bayesian model is then determined based on the historical data, which captures the dynamic sophisticated relationship of customer demands of a product, structural design, and market performance. Application of our approach to an electric toothbrush product family evolution design problem shows that our model allows for designers to interrogate with the model and obtain theoretical and decision support for dynamic product feature design process.

  12. The use of Bayesian networks for nanoparticle risk forecasting: model formulation and baseline evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Money, Eric S; Reckhow, Kenneth H; Wiesner, Mark R

    2012-06-01

    We describe the use of Bayesian networks as a tool for nanomaterial risk forecasting and develop a baseline probabilistic model that incorporates nanoparticle specific characteristics and environmental parameters, along with elements of exposure potential, hazard, and risk related to nanomaterials. The baseline model, FINE (Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment), was developed using expert elicitation techniques. The Bayesian nature of FINE allows for updating as new data become available, a critical feature for forecasting risk in the context of nanomaterials. The specific case of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic environments is presented here (FINE(AgNP)). The results of this study show that Bayesian networks provide a robust method for formally incorporating expert judgments into a probabilistic measure of exposure and risk to nanoparticles, particularly when other knowledge bases may be lacking. The model is easily adapted and updated as additional experimental data and other information on nanoparticle behavior in the environment become available. The baseline model suggests that, within the bounds of uncertainty as currently quantified, nanosilver may pose the greatest potential risk as these particles accumulate in aquatic sediments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Reliability assessment using Bayesian networks. Case study on quantative reliability estimation of a software-based motor protection relay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminen, A.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2003-06-01

    In this report a quantitative reliability assessment of motor protection relay SPAM 150 C has been carried out. The assessment focuses to the methodological analysis of the quantitative reliability assessment using the software-based motor protection relay as a case study. The assessment method is based on Bayesian networks and tries to take the full advantage of the previous work done in a project called Programmable Automation System Safety Integrity assessment (PASSI). From the results and experiences achieved during the work it is justified to claim that the assessment method presented in the work enables a flexible use of qualitative and quantitative elements of reliability related evidence in a single reliability assessment. At the same time the assessment method is a concurrent way of reasoning one's beliefs and references about the reliability of the system. Full advantage of the assessment method is taken when using the method as a way to cultivate the information related to the reliability of software-based systems. The method can also be used as a communicational instrument in a licensing process of software-based systems. (orig.)

  14. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training

  15. Network Traffic Prediction Based on Deep Belief Network and Spatiotemporal Compressive Sensing in Wireless Mesh Backbone Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laisen Nie

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless mesh network is prevalent for providing a decentralized access for users and other intelligent devices. Meanwhile, it can be employed as the infrastructure of the last few miles connectivity for various network applications, for example, Internet of Things (IoT and mobile networks. For a wireless mesh backbone network, it has obtained extensive attention because of its large capacity and low cost. Network traffic prediction is important for network planning and routing configurations that are implemented to improve the quality of service for users. This paper proposes a network traffic prediction method based on a deep learning architecture and the Spatiotemporal Compressive Sensing method. The proposed method first adopts discrete wavelet transform to extract the low-pass component of network traffic that describes the long-range dependence of itself. Then, a prediction model is built by learning a deep architecture based on the deep belief network from the extracted low-pass component. Otherwise, for the remaining high-pass component that expresses the gusty and irregular fluctuations of network traffic, the Spatiotemporal Compressive Sensing method is adopted to predict it. Based on the predictors of two components, we can obtain a predictor of network traffic. From the simulation, the proposed prediction method outperforms three existing methods.

  16. Bayesian networks modeling for thermal error of numerical control machine tools

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-hua YAO; Jian-zhong FU; Zi-chen CHEN

    2008-01-01

    The interaction between the heat source location,its intensity,thermal expansion coefficient,the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool,and also makes thermal error prediction difficult.To address this issue,a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented.The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques.Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data,the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine,and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy.Ex-periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance.Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares(LS)analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.

  17. Prediction of tissue-specific cis-regulatory modules using Bayesian networks and regression trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xiaoyu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In vertebrates, a large part of gene transcriptional regulation is operated by cis-regulatory modules. These modules are believed to be regulating much of the tissue-specificity of gene expression. Results We develop a Bayesian network approach for identifying cis-regulatory modules likely to regulate tissue-specific expression. The network integrates predicted transcription factor binding site information, transcription factor expression data, and target gene expression data. At its core is a regression tree modeling the effect of combinations of transcription factors bound to a module. A new unsupervised EM-like algorithm is developed to learn the parameters of the network, including the regression tree structure. Conclusion Our approach is shown to accurately identify known human liver and erythroid-specific modules. When applied to the prediction of tissue-specific modules in 10 different tissues, the network predicts a number of important transcription factor combinations whose concerted binding is associated to specific expression.

  18. A new approach for supply chain risk management: Mapping SCOR into Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Abolghasemi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. SCRM has a close relationship with supply chain performance. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are either qualitative or quantitative. Supply chain operation reference (SCOR is a standard model for SCP evaluation which have uncertainty in its metrics. In This paper by combining qualitative and quantitative metrics of SCOR, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks. Design/methodology/approach: First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing uncertain metrics of SCOR model and then by quantifying them, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks (BNs and supply chain operations reference (SCOR in which making decision on uncertain variables will be done by predictive and diagnostic capabilities. Findings: After applying the proposed method in one of the biggest automotive companies in Iran, we identified key factors of supply chain performance based on SCOR model through predictive and diagnostic capability of Bayesian Networks. After sensitivity analysis, we find out that ‘Total cost’ and its criteria that include costs of labors, warranty, transportation and inventory have the widest range and most effect on supply chain performance. So, managers should take their importance into account for decision making. We can make decisions simply by running model in different situations. Research limitations/implications: A more precise model consisted of numerous factors but it is difficult and sometimes impossible to solve big models, if we insert all of them in a Bayesian model. We have adopted real world characteristics with our software and method abilities. On the other hand, fewer data exist for some

  19. Inferring gene and protein interactions using PubMed citations and consensus Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deeter, Anthony; Dalman, Mark; Haddad, Joseph; Duan, Zhong-Hui

    2017-01-01

    The PubMed database offers an extensive set of publication data that can be useful, yet inherently complex to use without automated computational techniques. Data repositories such as the Genomic Data Commons (GDC) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) offer experimental data storage and retrieval as well as curated gene expression profiles. Genetic interaction databases, including Reactome and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, offer pathway and experiment data analysis using data curated from these publications and data repositories. We have created a method to generate and analyze consensus networks, inferring potential gene interactions, using large numbers of Bayesian networks generated by data mining publications in the PubMed database. Through the concept of network resolution, these consensus networks can be tailored to represent possible genetic interactions. We designed a set of experiments to confirm that our method is stable across variation in both sample and topological input sizes. Using gene product interactions from the KEGG pathway database and data mining PubMed publication abstracts, we verify that regardless of the network resolution or the inferred consensus network, our method is capable of inferring meaningful gene interactions through consensus Bayesian network generation with multiple, randomized topological orderings. Our method can not only confirm the existence of currently accepted interactions, but has the potential to hypothesize new ones as well. We show our method confirms the existence of known gene interactions such as JAK-STAT-PI3K-AKT-mTOR, infers novel gene interactions such as RAS- Bcl-2 and RAS-AKT, and found significant pathway-pathway interactions between the JAK-STAT signaling and Cardiac Muscle Contraction KEGG pathways.

  20. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  1. Using Higher-Order Dynamic Bayesian Networks to Model Periodic Data from the Circadian Clock of Arabidopsis Thaliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Rónán; Edwards, Kieron D.; O'Neill, John S.; Aitken, Stuart; Millar, Andrew J.; Girolami, Mark

    Modelling gene regulatory networks in organisms is an important task that has recently become possible due to large scale assays using technologies such as microarrays. In this paper, the circadian clock of Arabidopsis thaliana is modelled by fitting dynamic Bayesian networks to luminescence data gathered from experiments. This work differs from previous modelling attempts by using higher-order dynamic Bayesian networks to explicitly model the time lag between the various genes being expressed. In order to achieve this goal, new techniques in preprocessing the data and in evaluating a learned model are proposed. It is shown that it is possible, to some extent, to model these time delays using a higher-order dynamic Bayesian network.

  2. Predicting Football Matches Results using Bayesian Networks for English Premier League (EPL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razali, Nazim; Mustapha, Aida; Yatim, Faiz Ahmad; Aziz, Ruhaya Ab

    2017-08-01

    The issues of modeling asscoiation football prediction model has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different approaches of prediction models have been proposed with the point of evaluating the attributes that lead a football team to lose, draw or win the match. There are three types of approaches has been considered for predicting football matches results which include statistical approaches, machine learning approaches and Bayesian approaches. Lately, many studies regarding football prediction models has been produced using Bayesian approaches. This paper proposes a Bayesian Networks (BNs) to predict the results of football matches in term of home win (H), away win (A) and draw (D). The English Premier League (EPL) for three seasons of 2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 has been selected and reviewed. K-fold cross validation has been used for testing the accuracy of prediction model. The required information about the football data is sourced from a legitimate site at http://www.football-data.co.uk. BNs achieved predictive accuracy of 75.09% in average across three seasons. It is hoped that the results could be used as the benchmark output for future research in predicting football matches results.

  3. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  4. Discovering complex interrelationships between socioeconomic status and health in Europe: A case study applying Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Galvez, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Studies assume that socioeconomic status determines individuals' states of health, but how does health determine socioeconomic status? And how does this association vary depending on contextual differences? To answer this question, our study uses an additive Bayesian Networks model to explain the interrelationships between health and socioeconomic determinants using complex and messy data. This model has been used to find the most probable structure in a network to describe the interdependence of these factors in five European welfare state regimes. The advantage of this study is that it offers a specific picture to describe the complex interrelationship between socioeconomic determinants and health, producing a network that is controlled by socio-demographic factors such as gender and age. The present work provides a general framework to describe and understand the complex association between socioeconomic determinants and health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. MATRIX-VECTOR ALGORITHMS OF LOCAL POSTERIORI INFERENCE IN ALGEBRAIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS ON QUANTA PROPOSITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Zolotin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Posteriori inference is one of the three kinds of probabilistic-logic inferences in the probabilistic graphical models theory and the base for processing of knowledge patterns with probabilistic uncertainty using Bayesian networks. The paper deals with a task of local posteriori inference description in algebraic Bayesian networks that represent a class of probabilistic graphical models by means of matrix-vector equations. The latter are essentially based on the use of tensor product of matrices, Kronecker degree and Hadamard product. Matrix equations for calculating posteriori probabilities vectors within posteriori inference in knowledge patterns with quanta propositions are obtained. Similar equations of the same type have already been discussed within the confines of the theory of algebraic Bayesian networks, but they were built only for the case of posteriori inference in the knowledge patterns on the ideals of conjuncts. During synthesis and development of matrix-vector equations on quanta propositions probability vectors, a number of earlier results concerning normalizing factors in posteriori inference and assignment of linear projective operator with a selector vector was adapted. We consider all three types of incoming evidences - deterministic, stochastic and inaccurate - combined with scalar and interval estimation of probability truth of propositional formulas in the knowledge patterns. Linear programming problems are formed. Their solution gives the desired interval values of posterior probabilities in the case of inaccurate evidence or interval estimates in a knowledge pattern. That sort of description of a posteriori inference gives the possibility to extend the set of knowledge pattern types that we can use in the local and global posteriori inference, as well as simplify complex software implementation by use of existing third-party libraries, effectively supporting submission and processing of matrices and vectors when

  6. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional

  7. A Bayesian Network approach to the evaluation of building design and its consequences for employee performance and operational costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kasper Lynge; Toftum, Jørn; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian Network approach has been developed that can compare different building designs by estimating the effects of the thermal indoor environment on the mental performance of office workers. A part of this network is based on the compilation of subjective thermal sensation data and the assoc...

  8. [Overcoming the limitations of the descriptive and categorical approaches in psychiatric diagnosis: a proposal based on Bayesian networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorias, Soli

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to overcome the problems of descriptive and categorical approaches have not yielded results. In the present article, psychiatric diagnosis using Bayesian networks is proposed. Instead of a yes/no decision, Bayesian networks give the probability of diagnostic category inclusion, thereby yielding both a graded, i.e., dimensional diagnosis, and a value of the certainty of the diagnosis. With the use of Bayesian networks in the diagnosis of mental disorders, information about etiology, associated features, treatment outcome, and laboratory results may be used in addition to clinical signs and symptoms, with each of these factors contributing proportionally to their own specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, a diagnosis (albeit one with a lower probability) can be made even with incomplete, uncertain, or partially erroneous information, and patients whose symptoms are below the diagnostic threshold can be evaluated. Lastly, there is no need of NOS or "unspecified" categories, and comorbid disorders become different dimensions of the diagnostic evaluation. Bayesian diagnoses allow the preservation of current categories and assessment methods, and may be used concurrently with criteria-based diagnoses. Users need not put in extra effort except to collect more comprehensive information. Unlike the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) project, the Bayesian approach neither increases the diagnostic validity of existing categories nor explains the pathophysiological mechanisms of mental disorders. It, however, can be readily integrated to present classification systems. Therefore, the Bayesian approach may be an intermediate phase between criteria-based diagnosis and the RDoC ideal.

  9. A Bayesian Network Model on the Public Bicycle Choice Behavior of Residents: A Case Study of Xi’an

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuping Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the main factors affecting the behaviors that city residents make regarding public bicycle choice and to further study the public bicycle user’s personal characteristics and travel characteristics, a travel mode choice model based on a Bayesian network was established. Taking residents of Xi’an as the research object, a K2 algorithm combined with mutual information and expert knowledge was proposed for Bayesian network structure learning. The Bayesian estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the network, and a Bayesian network model was established to reflect the interactions among the public bicycle choice behaviors along with other major factors. The K-fold cross-validation method was used to validate the model performance, and the hit rate of each travel mode was more than 80%, indicating the precision of the proposed model. Experimental results also present the higher classification accuracy of the proposed model. Therefore, it may be concluded that the resident travel mode choice may be accurately predicted according to the Bayesian network model proposed in our study. Additionally, this model may be employed to analyze and discuss changes in the resident public bicycle choice and to note that they may possibly be influenced by different travelers’ characteristics and trip characteristics.

  10. Quantitative utilization of prior biological knowledge in the Bayesian network modeling of gene expression data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Shouguo

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bayesian Network (BN is a powerful approach to reconstructing genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data. However, expression data by itself suffers from high noise and lack of power. Incorporating prior biological knowledge can improve the performance. As each type of prior knowledge on its own may be incomplete or limited by quality issues, integrating multiple sources of prior knowledge to utilize their consensus is desirable. Results We introduce a new method to incorporate the quantitative information from multiple sources of prior knowledge. It first uses the Naïve Bayesian classifier to assess the likelihood of functional linkage between gene pairs based on prior knowledge. In this study we included cocitation in PubMed and schematic similarity in Gene Ontology annotation. A candidate network edge reservoir is then created in which the copy number of each edge is proportional to the estimated likelihood of linkage between the two corresponding genes. In network simulation the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is adopted, and samples from this reservoir at each iteration to generate new candidate networks. We evaluated the new algorithm using both simulated and real gene expression data including that from a yeast cell cycle and a mouse pancreas development/growth study. Incorporating prior knowledge led to a ~2 fold increase in the number of known transcription regulations recovered, without significant change in false positive rate. In contrast, without the prior knowledge BN modeling is not always better than a random selection, demonstrating the necessity in network modeling to supplement the gene expression data with additional information. Conclusion our new development provides a statistical means to utilize the quantitative information in prior biological knowledge in the BN modeling of gene expression data, which significantly improves the performance.

  11. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    the lifetime. Two different approaches are used; one uses a threshold value of the failure probability, and one uses a Limited Memory Influence Diagram. Both methods are tested for an application example using MonteCarlo sampling, and they are both found to be efficient and equally good.......For offshore wind farms, the costs due to operation and maintenance are large, and more optimal planning has the potential of reducing these costs. This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used for risk-based inspection planning, where the inspection plans are updated each year through...

  12. Applying Bayesian neural networks to event reconstruction in reactor neutrino experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Ye; Xu Weiwei; Meng Yixiong; Zhu Kaien; Xu Wei

    2008-01-01

    A toy detector has been designed to simulate central detectors in reactor neutrino experiments in the paper. The electron samples from the Monte-Carlo simulation of the toy detector have been reconstructed by the method of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and the standard algorithm, a maximum likelihood method (MLD), respectively. The result of the event reconstruction using BNN has been compared with the one using MLD. Compared to MLD, the uncertainties of the electron vertex are not improved, but the energy resolutions are significantly improved using BNN. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy electrons than the low energy ones

  13. Application of Bayesian Networks to Diagnostics of Hot Dip Galvanized Coasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Adrian

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an output of the application of a probabilistic method of inference based on Bayes' rule in the diagnosis of defects formed during hot-dip galvanising process of casting products. Bayesian cause-effect network for given group of surface defects and its causes was build. Many factors causing defects was taken into consideration like: technological parameters, technological nodes and character of cause. The advantages and drawbacks of a probabilistic method of representation of the incomplete and uncertain empirical knowledge were highlighted.

  14. Bayesian network model for identification of pathways by integrating protein interaction with genetic interaction data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Changhe; Deng, Su; Jin, Guangxu; Wang, Xinxin; Yu, Zu-Guo

    2017-09-21

    Molecular interaction data at proteomic and genetic levels provide physical and functional insights into a molecular biosystem and are helpful for the construction of pathway structures complementarily. Despite advances in inferring biological pathways using genetic interaction data, there still exists weakness in developed models, such as, activity pathway networks (APN), when integrating the data from proteomic and genetic levels. It is necessary to develop new methods to infer pathway structure by both of interaction data. We utilized probabilistic graphical model to develop a new method that integrates genetic interaction and protein interaction data and infers exquisitely detailed pathway structure. We modeled the pathway network as Bayesian network and applied this model to infer pathways for the coherent subsets of the global genetic interaction profiles, and the available data set of endoplasmic reticulum genes. The protein interaction data were derived from the BioGRID database. Our method can accurately reconstruct known cellular pathway structures, including SWR complex, ER-Associated Degradation (ERAD) pathway, N-Glycan biosynthesis pathway, Elongator complex, Retromer complex, and Urmylation pathway. By comparing N-Glycan biosynthesis pathway and Urmylation pathway identified from our approach with that from APN, we found that our method is able to overcome its weakness (certain edges are inexplicable). According to underlying protein interaction network, we defined a simple scoring function that only adopts genetic interaction information to avoid the balance difficulty in the APN. Using the effective stochastic simulation algorithm, the performance of our proposed method is significantly high. We developed a new method based on Bayesian network to infer detailed pathway structures from interaction data at proteomic and genetic levels. The results indicate that the developed method performs better in predicting signaling pathways than previously

  15. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  16. On the structure of Bayesian network for Indonesian text document paraphrase identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Ario Harry; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Paraphrase identification is an important process within natural language processing. The idea is to automatically recognize phrases that have different forms but contain same meanings. For examples if we input query “causing fire hazard”, then the computer has to recognize this query that this query has same meaning as “the cause of fire hazard. Paraphrasing is an activity that reveals the meaning of an expression, writing, or speech using different words or forms, especially to achieve greater clarity. In this research we will focus on classifying two Indonesian sentences whether it is a paraphrase to each other or not. There are four steps in this research, first is preprocessing, second is feature extraction, third is classifier building, and the last is performance evaluation. Preprocessing consists of tokenization, non-alphanumerical removal, and stemming. After preprocessing we will conduct feature extraction in order to build new features from given dataset. There are two kinds of features in the research, syntactic features and semantic features. Syntactic features consist of normalized levenshtein distance feature, term-frequency based cosine similarity feature, and LCS (Longest Common Subsequence) feature. Semantic features consist of Wu and Palmer feature and Shortest Path Feature. We use Bayesian Networks as the method of training the classifier. Parameter estimation that we use is called MAP (Maximum A Posteriori). For structure learning of Bayesian Networks DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph), we use BDeu (Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform) scoring function and for finding DAG with the best BDeu score, we use K2 algorithm. In evaluation step we perform cross-validation. The average result that we get from testing the classifier as follows: Precision 75.2%, Recall 76.5%, F1-Measure 75.8% and Accuracy 75.6%.

  17. Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

    2015-01-01

    Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

  18. Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting Click-Through Rates of New Advertisements Based on the Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhipeng Fang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most classical search engines choose and rank advertisements (ads based on their click-through rates (CTRs. To predict an ad’s CTR, historical click information is frequently concerned. To accurately predict the CTR of the new ads is challenging and critical for real world applications, since we do not have plentiful historical data about these ads. Adopting Bayesian network (BN as the effective framework for representing and inferring dependencies and uncertainties among variables, in this paper, we establish a BN-based model to predict the CTRs of new ads. First, we built a Bayesian network of the keywords that are used to describe the ads in a certain domain, called keyword BN and abbreviated as KBN. Second, we proposed an algorithm for approximate inferences of the KBN to find similar keywords with those that describe the new ads. Finally based on the similar keywords, we obtain the similar ads and then calculate the CTR of the new ad by using the CTRs of the ads that are similar with the new ad. Experimental results show the efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  20. Probabilistic Safety Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Lines Using Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grande Andrade, Z.; Castillo Ron, E.; O' Connor, A.; Nogal, M.

    2016-07-01

    A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of railway lines. The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line, such as light and speed limit signals, tunnel or viaduct entries or exits, cuttings and embankments, acoustic sounds received in the cabin, curves, switches, etc. In addition, since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation, the automatic train protection (ATP) systems and the driver behavior and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors. The nodes of the Bayesian network, their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given. The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas, which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis. A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained, which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially. The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines. (Author)

  1. Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kee-Hoon; Cho, Sung-Bae

    2017-12-11

    Recently, recognizing a user's daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user's obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the "Five W's", and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54-14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing.

  2. Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Zorrilla

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation. The advantages and limitations of these criteria are discussed in the light of a specific participatory modeling initiative. Modeling work was conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain, where uncontrolled groundwater extraction is responsible for wetland degradation and conflicts between farmers, water authorities, and environmentalists. Finding adequate solutions to the problem is urgent because the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive requires all aquatic ecosystems to be in a "good ecological state" within a relatively short time frame. Stakeholder evaluation highlights the potential of Bayesian networks to support public participation processes.

  3. A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

    2009-02-01

    Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

  4. Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minoo Aminian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes, since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web.

  5. Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

  6. Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

    2017-01-01

    We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

  7. Algorithms for Bayesian network modeling and reliability assessment of infrastructure systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tien, Iris; Der Kiureghian, Armen

    2016-01-01

    Novel algorithms are developed to enable the modeling of large, complex infrastructure systems as Bayesian networks (BNs). These include a compression algorithm that significantly reduces the memory storage required to construct the BN model, and an updating algorithm that performs inference on compressed matrices. These algorithms address one of the major obstacles to widespread use of BNs for system reliability assessment, namely the exponentially increasing amount of information that needs to be stored as the number of components in the system increases. The proposed compression and inference algorithms are described and applied to example systems to investigate their performance compared to that of existing algorithms. Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement are demonstrated using the new algorithms, enabling BN modeling and reliability analysis of larger infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • Novel algorithms developed for Bayesian network modeling of infrastructure systems. • Algorithm presented to compress information in conditional probability tables. • Updating algorithm presented to perform inference on compressed matrices. • Algorithms applied to example systems to investigate their performance. • Orders of magnitude savings in memory storage requirement demonstrated.

  8. Interconnection between biological abnormalities in borderline personality disorder: use of the Bayesian networks model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Fuente, José Manuel; Bengoetxea, Endika; Navarro, Felipe; Bobes, Julio; Alarcón, Renato Daniel

    2011-04-30

    There is agreement in that strengthening the sets of neurobiological data would reinforce the diagnostic objectivity of many psychiatric entities. This article attempts to use this approach in borderline personality disorder (BPD). Assuming that most of the biological findings in BPD reflect common underlying pathophysiological processes we hypothesized that most of the data involved in the findings would be statistically interconnected and interdependent, indicating biological consistency for this diagnosis. Prospectively obtained data on scalp and sleep electroencephalography (EEG), clinical neurologic soft signs, the dexamethasone suppression and thyrotropin-releasing hormone stimulation tests of 20 consecutive BPD patients were used to generate a Bayesian network model, an artificial intelligence paradigm that visually illustrates eventual associations (or inter-dependencies) between otherwise seemingly unrelated variables. The Bayesian network model identified relationships among most of the variables. EEG and TSH were the variables that influence most of the others, especially sleep parameters. Neurological soft signs were linked with EEG, TSH, and sleep parameters. The results suggest the possibility of using objective neurobiological variables to strengthen the validity of future diagnostic criteria and nosological characterization of BPD. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of successful smoking cessation by psychological factors using the Bayesian network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaorong; Li, Suyun; Pan, Lulu; Wang, Qiang; Li, Huijie; Han, Mingkui; Zhang, Nan; Jiang, Fan; Jia, Chongqi

    2016-07-01

    The association between psychological factors and smoking cessation is complicated and inconsistent in published researches, and the joint effect of psychological factors on smoking cessation is unclear. This study explored how psychological factors jointly affect the success of smoking cessation using a Bayesian network approach. A community-based case control study was designed with 642 adult male successful smoking quitters as the cases, and 700 adult male failed smoking quitters as the controls. General self-efficacy (GSE), trait coping style (positive-trait coping style (PTCS) and negative-trait coping style (NTCS)) and self-rating anxiety (SA) were evaluated by GSE Scale, Trait Coping Style Questionnaire and SA Scale, respectively. Bayesian network was applied to evaluate the relationship between psychological factors and successful smoking cessation. The local conditional probability table of smoking cessation indicated that different joint conditions of psychological factors led to different outcomes for smoking cessation. Among smokers with high PTCS, high NTCS and low SA, only 36.40% successfully quitted smoking. However, among smokers with low pack-years of smoking, high GSE, high PTCS and high SA, 63.64% successfully quitted smoking. Our study indicates psychological factors jointly influence smoking cessation outcome. According to different joint situations, different solutions should be developed to control tobacco in practical intervention.

  10. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. REKAYASA PERANGKAT LUNAK DETEKSI DINI KECENDERUNGAN GANGGUAN KESEHATAN MASYARAKAT TERTINGGAL DAN PESISIR DENGAN BAYESIAN NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilham Ilham

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to see the trend of diseases caused by unhealthy lifestyles on disadvantaged communities and coastal villages around Gresik and Tuban using hybrid algorithms through the construction of the structure of Bayesian Network. The problem to be solved in this study is no system that can detect a relationship between unhealthy behavior that caused the disease. Model of this structure has never been applied directly in the field to detect a causal events for example, if a behavior is unhealthy will arise disease. Application of this model needs to be done with a field study to determine and prove the actual benefits of the concept of a hybrid construction of Bayesian network structure. The purpose of this research is to produce a software model capable of early detection of disease risk propensity underdeveloped rural and coastal communities who have unhealthy lifestyles in the form of construction of the structure and generates a probability value with a tendency disease. The comparison between the structure of the origin of the structure of the trial results indicate the level of suitability for complete test data difference of 10% to the original structure, and suitability for the test data is incomplete for more than 20% depending on the amount of his missing value. The validity of that smoke will have the tendency has tuberculosis disease, bronchitis or Lung Cancer through the test system is 80% to 90%.

  12. A discrete-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    Dependability tools are becoming an indispensable tool for modeling and analyzing (critical) systems. However the growing complexity of such systems calls for increasing sophistication of these tools. Dependability tools need to not only capture the complex dynamic behavior of the system components, but they must be also easy to use, intuitive, and computationally efficient. In general, current tools have a number of shortcomings including lack of modeling power, incapacity to efficiently handle general component failure distributions, and ineffectiveness in solving large models that exhibit complex dependencies between their components. We propose a novel reliability modeling and analysis framework based on the Bayesian network (BN) formalism. The overall approach is to investigate timed Bayesian networks and to find a suitable reliability framework for dynamic systems. We have applied our methodology to two example systems and preliminary results are promising. We have defined a discrete-time BN reliability formalism and demonstrated its capabilities from a modeling and analysis point of view. This research shows that a BN based reliability formalism is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, being based on the BN formalism, the framework is easy to use and intuitive for non-experts, and provides a basis for more advanced and useful analyses such as system diagnosis

  13. Comprehensive Influence Model of Preschool Children’s Personality Development Based on the Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is crucial to ascertain the comprehensive influence factors on personality for making effective cultivating plan. However, most existing literatures focus on the effect of individual factor on the personality. In order to comprehensively investigate the causal influences of preschool children’s temperament, school factors (teacher expectation and peer acceptance, and family factors (parental coparenting style, parental education value, and parental parenting style on the personality and the probability of the dependencies among these influence factors, we constructed the influencing factor model of personality development based on the Bayesian network. The models not only reflect the influence on personality development as a whole, but also obtain the probability relationships among the factors. Compared with other influence factors including family and school factors, temperament has more effect on the personality. In addition, teacher expectation also has an important influence on the personality. The experimental results show that it is a valuable exploration to construct the Bayesian network for comprehensively investigating the causal relationships between preschool children’s personality and related influence factors. Further, these results will be helpful to the cultivation of healthy personality.

  14. Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetton, Benjamin D; McDevitt, Elizabeth A; Cellini, Nicola; Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C

    2018-01-01

    The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep.

  15. Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

    2014-12-01

    African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

  16. Deep Belief Networks for Electroencephalography: A Review of Recent Contributions and Future Outlooks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Movahedi, Faezeh; Coyle, James L; Sejdic, Ervin

    2018-05-01

    Deep learning, a relatively new branch of machine learning, has been investigated for use in a variety of biomedical applications. Deep learning algorithms have been used to analyze different physiological signals and gain a better understanding of human physiology for automated diagnosis of abnormal conditions. In this paper, we provide an overview of deep learning approaches with a focus on deep belief networks in electroencephalography applications. We investigate the state-of-the-art algorithms for deep belief networks and then cover the application of these algorithms and their performances in electroencephalographic applications. We covered various applications of electroencephalography in medicine, including emotion recognition, sleep stage classification, and seizure detection, in order to understand how deep learning algorithms could be modified to better suit the tasks desired. This review is intended to provide researchers with a broad overview of the currently existing deep belief network methodology for electroencephalography signals, as well as to highlight potential challenges for future research.

  17. Building a Model Using Bayesian Network for Assessment of Posterior Probabilities of Falling From Height at Workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Shamseddin Alizadeh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falls from height are one of the main causes of fatal occupational injuries. The objective of this study was to present a model for estimating occurrence probability of falling from height. Methods: In order to make a list of factors affecting falls, we used four expert group's judgment, literature review and an available database. Then the validity and reliability of designed questionnaire were determined and Bayesian networks were built. The built network, nodes and curves were quantified. For network sensitivity analysis, four types of analysis carried out. Results: A Bayesian network for assessment of posterior probabilities of falling from height proposed. The presented Bayesian network model shows the interrelationships among 37 causes affecting the falling from height and can calculate its posterior probabilities. The most important factors affecting falling were Non-compliance with safety instructions for work at height (0.127, Lack of safety equipment for work at height (0.094 and Lack of safety instructions for work at height (0.071 respectively. Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian network used to determine how different causes could affect the falling from height at work. The findings of this study can be used to decide on the falling accident prevention programs.

  18. Fault detection Based Bayesian network and MOEA/D applied to Sensorless Drive Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Qing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensorless Drive Diagnosis can be used to assess the process data without the need for additional cost-intensive sensor technology, and you can understand the synchronous motor and connecting parts of the damaged state. Considering the number of features involved in the process data, it is necessary to perform feature selection and reduce the data dimension in the process of fault detection. In this paper, the MOEA / D algorithm based on multi-objective optimization is used to obtain the weight vector of all the features in the original data set. It is more suitable to classify or make decisions based on these features. In order to ensure the fastness and convenience sensorless drive diagnosis, in this paper, the classic Bayesian network learning algorithm-K2 algorithm is used to study the network structure of each feature in sensorless drive, which makes the fault detection and elimination process more targeted.

  19. Bayesian networks precipitation model based on hidden Markov analysis and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Surface precipitation estimation is very important in hydrologic forecast. To account for the influence of the neighbors on the precipitation of an arbitrary grid in the network, Bayesian networks and Markov random field were adopted to estimate surface precipitation. Spherical coordinates and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm were used for region interpolation, and for estimation of the precipitation of arbitrary point in the region. Surface precipitation estimation of seven precipitation stations in Qinghai Lake region was performed. By comparing with other surface precipitation methods such as Thiessen polygon method, distance weighted mean method and arithmetic mean method, it is shown that the proposed method can judge the relationship of precipitation among different points in the area under complicated circumstances and the simulation results are more accurate and rational.

  20. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Nassar, Matthew R.; Wilson, Robert C.; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I.

    2010-01-01

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision-making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects ...

  1. Community Detection for Multiplex Social Networks Based on Relational Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Jiuchuan; Jaeger, Manfred

    2014-01-01

    Many techniques have been proposed for community detection in social networks. Most of these techniques are only designed for networks defined by a single relation. However, many real networks are multiplex networks that contain multiple types of relations and different attributes on the nodes...

  2. Modeling of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network with Divide-and-Conquer Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqiang Cai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For system failure prediction, automatically modeling from historical failure dataset is one of the challenges in practical engineering fields. In this paper, an effective algorithm is proposed to build the failure prediction Bayesian network (FPBN model with data mining technology. First, the conception of FPBN is introduced to describe the state of components and system and the cause-effect relationships among them. The types of network nodes, the directions of network edges, and the conditional probability distributions (CPDs of nodes in FPBN are discussed in detail. According to the characteristics of nodes and edges in FPBN, a divide-and-conquer principle based algorithm (FPBN-DC is introduced to build the best FPBN network structures of different types of nodes separately. Then, the CPDs of nodes in FPBN are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the built network. Finally, a simulation study of a helicopter convertor model is carried out to demonstrate the application of FPBN-DC. According to the simulations results, the FPBN-DC algorithm can get better fitness value with the lower number of iterations, which verified its effectiveness and efficiency compared with traditional algorithm.

  3. Refining mass formulas for astrophysical applications: A Bayesian neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.

    2017-10-01

    Background: Exotic nuclei, particularly those near the drip lines, are at the core of one of the fundamental questions driving nuclear structure and astrophysics today: What are the limits of nuclear binding? Exotic nuclei play a critical role in both informing theoretical models as well as in our understanding of the origin of the heavy elements. Purpose: Our aim is to refine existing mass models through the training of an artificial neural network that will mitigate the large model discrepancies far away from stability. Methods: The basic paradigm of our two-pronged approach is an existing mass model that captures as much as possible of the underlying physics followed by the implementation of a Bayesian neural network (BNN) refinement to account for the missing physics. Bayesian inference is employed to determine the parameters of the neural network so that model predictions may be accompanied by theoretical uncertainties. Results: Despite the undeniable quality of the mass models adopted in this work, we observe a significant improvement (of about 40%) after the BNN refinement is implemented. Indeed, in the specific case of the Duflo-Zuker mass formula, we find that the rms deviation relative to experiment is reduced from σrms=0.503 MeV to σrms=0.286 MeV. These newly refined mass tables are used to map the neutron drip lines (or rather "drip bands") and to study a few critical r -process nuclei. Conclusions: The BNN approach is highly successful in refining the predictions of existing mass models. In particular, the large discrepancy displayed by the original "bare" models in regions where experimental data are unavailable is considerably quenched after the BNN refinement. This lends credence to our approach and has motivated us to publish refined mass tables that we trust will be helpful for future astrophysical applications.

  4. Exploring complex miRNA-mRNA interactions with Bayesian networks by splitting-averaging strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Lin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background microRNAs (miRNAs regulate target gene expression by controlling their mRNAs post-transcriptionally. Increasing evidence demonstrates that miRNAs play important roles in various biological processes. However, the functions and precise regulatory mechanisms of most miRNAs remain elusive. Current research suggests that miRNA regulatory modules are complicated, including up-, down-, and mix-regulation for different physiological conditions. Previous computational approaches for discovering miRNA-mRNA interactions focus only on down-regulatory modules. In this work, we present a method to capture complex miRNA-mRNA interactions including all regulatory types between miRNAs and mRNAs. Results We present a method to capture complex miRNA-mRNA interactions using Bayesian network structure learning with splitting-averaging strategy. It is designed to explore all possible miRNA-mRNA interactions by integrating miRNA-targeting information, expression profiles of miRNAs and mRNAs, and sample categories. We also present an analysis of data sets for epithelial and mesenchymal transition (EMT. Our results show that the proposed method identified all possible types of miRNA-mRNA interactions from the data. Many interactions are of tremendous biological significance. Some discoveries have been validated by previous research, for example, the miR-200 family negatively regulates ZEB1 and ZEB2 for EMT. Some are consistent with the literature, such as LOX has wide interactions with the miR-200 family members for EMT. Furthermore, many novel interactions are statistically significant and worthy of validation in the near future. Conclusions This paper presents a new method to explore the complex miRNA-mRNA interactions for different physiological conditions using Bayesian network structure learning with splitting-averaging strategy. The method makes use of heterogeneous data including miRNA-targeting information, expression profiles of miRNAs and

  5. Signal-BNF: A Bayesian Network Fusing Approach to Predict Signal Peptides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Zheng

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A signal peptide is a short peptide chain that directs the transport of a protein and has become the crucial vehicle in finding new drugs or reprogramming cells for gene therapy. As the avalanche of new protein sequences generated in the postgenomic era, the challenge of identifying new signal sequences has become even more urgent and critical in biomedical engineering. In this paper, we propose a novel predictor called Signal-BNF to predict the N-terminal signal peptide as well as its cleavage site based on Bayesian reasoning network. Signal-BNF is formed by fusing the results of different Bayesian classifiers which used different feature datasets as its input through weighted voting system. Experiment results show that Signal-BNF is superior to the popular online predictors such as Signal-3L and PrediSi. Signal-BNF is featured by high prediction accuracy that may serve as a useful tool for further investigating many unclear details regarding the molecular mechanism of the zip code protein-sorting system in cells.

  6. Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks: Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gençay, R; Qi, M

    2001-01-01

    We study the effectiveness of cross validation, Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging to mitigate overfitting and improving generalization for pricing and hedging derivative securities with daily S&P 500 index daily call options from January 1988 to December 1993. Our results indicate that Bayesian regularization can generate significantly smaller pricing and delta-hedging errors than the baseline neural-network (NN) model and the Black-Scholes model for some years. While early stopping does not affect the pricing errors, it significantly reduces the hedging error (HE) in four of the six years we investigated. Although computationally most demanding, bagging seems to provide the most accurate pricing and delta hedging. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the MSPE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in all six years, and the standard deviation of the average HE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in five out of six years. We conclude that they be used at least in cases when no appropriate hints are available.

  7. Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Fuster-Parra

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players, the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naive Bayes (NB and tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN. BNs are selected as they are able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. BN results show that the antecessors (the “top” features ranked are the team members’ expectations and their attraction to the social aspects of the task. The main node is formed by the cooperative behaviors, the consequences ranked at the BN bottom (ratified by the TAN trees and the instantiations made, the roles assigned to the members and their survival inside the same team. These results should help managers to determine contents and priorities when they have to face team-building actions.

  8. Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwirglmaier, Kilian; Straub, Daniel; Groth, Katrina M.

    2017-01-01

    reIn the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as a powerful tool for human reliability analysis (HRA), with multiple advantages over traditional HRA methods. In this paper we illustrate how BNs can be used to include additional, qualitative causal paths to provide traceability. The proposed framework provides the foundation to resolve several needs frequently expressed by the HRA community. First, the developed extended BN structure reflects the causal paths found in cognitive psychology literature, thereby addressing the need for causal traceability and strong scientific basis in HRA. Secondly, the use of node reduction algorithms allows the BN to be condensed to a level of detail at which quantification is as straightforward as the techniques used in existing HRA. We illustrate the framework by developing a BN version of the critical data misperceived crew failure mode in the IDHEAS HRA method, which is currently under development at the US NRC . We illustrate how the model could be quantified with a combination of expert-probabilities and information from operator performance databases such as SACADA. This paper lays the foundations necessary to expand the cognitive and quantitative foundations of HRA. - Highlights: • A framework for building traceable BNs for HRA, based on cognitive causal paths. • A qualitative BN structure, directly showing these causal paths is developed. • Node reduction algorithms are used for making the BN structure quantifiable. • BN quantified through expert estimates and observed data (Bayesian updating). • The framework is illustrated for a crew failure mode of IDHEAS.

  9. A Bayesian maximum entropy-based methodology for optimal spatiotemporal design of groundwater monitoring networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Marjan; Kerachian, Reza

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of water table levels and redesigning a groundwater level monitoring network (GLMN) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) technique and a multi-criteria decision-making approach based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA). The spatial sampling is determined using a hexagonal gridding pattern and a new method, which is proposed to assign a removal priority number to each pre-existing station. To design temporal sampling, a new approach is also applied to consider uncertainty caused by lack of information. In this approach, different time lag values are tested by regarding another source of information, which is simulation result of a numerical groundwater flow model. Furthermore, to incorporate the existing uncertainties in available monitoring data, the flexibility of the BME interpolation technique is taken into account in applying soft data and improving the accuracy of the calculations. To examine the methodology, it is applied to the Dehgolan plain in northwestern Iran. Based on the results, a configuration of 33 monitoring stations for a regular hexagonal grid of side length 3600 m is proposed, in which the time lag between samples is equal to 5 weeks. Since the variance estimation errors of the BME method are almost identical for redesigned and existing networks, the redesigned monitoring network is more cost-effective and efficient than the existing monitoring network with 52 stations and monthly sampling frequency.

  10. Bayesian neural network modeling of tree-ring temperature variability record from the Western Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. K. Tiwari

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A novel technique based on the Bayesian neural network (BNN theory is developed and employed to model the temperature variation record from the Western Himalayas. In order to estimate an a posteriori probability function, the BNN is trained with the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC/Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations algorithm. The efficacy of the new algorithm is tested on the well known chaotic, first order autoregressive (AR and random models and then applied to model the temperature variation record decoded from the tree-ring widths of the Western Himalayas for the period spanning over 1226–2000 AD. For modeling the actual tree-ring temperature data, optimum network parameters are chosen appropriately and then cross-validation test is performed to ensure the generalization skill of the network on the new data set. Finally, prediction result based on the BNN model is compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN and the AR linear models results. The comparative results show that the BNN based analysis makes better prediction than the ANN and the AR models. The new BNN modeling approach provides a viable tool for climate studies and could also be exploited for modeling other kinds of environmental data.

  11. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  12. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

  13. Cambodian Parental Involvement: The Role of Parental Beliefs, Social Networks, and Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, Sothy; Szmodis, Whitney; Mulsow, Miriam

    2014-01-01

    The role of social capital (parental beliefs, social networks, and trust) as a predictor of parental involvement in Cambodian children's education was examined, controlling for human capital (family socioeconomic status). Parents of elementary students (n = 273) were interviewed face to face in Cambodia. Teacher contact scored highest, followed by…

  14. BELIEF dashboard - a web-based curation interface to support generation of BEL networks

    OpenAIRE

    Madan, Sumit; Hodapp, Sven; Fluck, Juliane

    2015-01-01

    The relevance of network-based approaches in systems biology to achieve a better understanding of biological mechanisms has increased enormously. The Biological Expression Language (BEL) is well designed to collate findings from scientific literature into biological network models. To facilitate encoding and biocuration of such findings in BEL, a free and user-friendly web-based curation interface called BELIEF Dashboard has been developed. The interface incorporates an information extraction...

  15. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I

    2010-09-15

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects follow these principles under a range of conditions. We show that the influence of an outcome depends on both the error made in predicting that outcome and the number of similar outcomes experienced previously. We also show that the exact nature of these tendencies varies considerably across subjects. Finally, we show that these patterns of behavior are consistent with a computationally simple reduction of an ideal-observer model. The model adjusts the influence of newly experienced outcomes according to ongoing estimates of uncertainty and the probability of a fundamental change in the process by which outcomes are generated. A prior that quantifies the expected frequency of such environmental changes accounts for individual variability, including a positive relationship between subjective certainty and the degree to which new information influences existing beliefs. The results suggest that the brain adaptively regulates the influence of decision outcomes on existing beliefs using straightforward updating rules that take into account both recent outcomes and prior expectations about higher-order environmental structure.

  16. Applying Bayesian neural networks to separate neutrino events from backgrounds in reactor neutrino experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Y; Meng, Y X; Xu, W W

    2008-01-01

    A toy detector has been designed to simulate central detectors in reactor neutrino experiments in the paper. The samples of neutrino events and three major backgrounds from the Monte-Carlo simulation of the toy detector are generated in the signal region. The Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are applied to separate neutrino events from backgrounds in reactor neutrino experiments. As a result, the most neutrino events and uncorrelated background events in the signal region can be identified with BNN, and the part events each of the fast neutron and 8 He/ 9 Li backgrounds in the signal region can be identified with BNN. Then, the signal to noise ratio in the signal region is enhanced with BNN. The neutrino discrimination increases with the increase of the neutrino rate in the training sample. However, the background discriminations decrease with the decrease of the background rate in the training sample

  17. A novel critical infrastructure resilience assessment approach using dynamic Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Xie, Min; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Yiliu; Ji, Renjie; Feng, Qiang

    2017-10-01

    The word resilience originally originates from the Latin word "resiliere", which means to "bounce back". The concept has been used in various fields, such as ecology, economics, psychology, and society, with different definitions. In the field of critical infrastructure, although some resilience metrics are proposed, they are totally different from each other, which are determined by the performances of the objects of evaluation. Here we bridge the gap by developing a universal critical infrastructure resilience metric from the perspective of reliability engineering. A dynamic Bayesian networks-based assessment approach is proposed to calculate the resilience value. A series, parallel and voting system is used to demonstrate the application of the developed resilience metric and assessment approach.

  18. Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamelryck Thomas

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs. It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations. Results The program package is freely available under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL from SourceForge http://sourceforge.net/projects/mocapy. The package contains the source for building the Mocapy++ library, several usage examples and the user manual. Conclusions Mocapy++ is especially suitable for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein and RNA structure in atomic detail.

  19. Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

    With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

  20. Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, D.; Yan, X.P.; Yang, Z.L.; Wall, A.; Wang, J.

    2013-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA), as a structured and systematic risk evaluation methodology, has been increasingly and broadly used in the shipping industry around the world. Concerns have been raised as to navigational safety of the Yangtze River, China's largest and the world's busiest inland waterway. Over the last few decades, the throughput of ships in the Yangtze River has increased rapidly due to the national development of the Middle and Western parts of China. Accidents such as collisions, groundings, contacts, oil-spills and fires occur repeatedly, often causing serious consequences. In order to improve the navigational safety in the Yangtze River, this paper estimates the navigational risk of the Yangtze River using the FSA concept and a Bayesian network (BN) technique. The navigational risk model is established by considering both probability and consequences of accidents with respect to a risk matrix method, followed by a scenario analysis to demonstrate the application of the proposed model

  1. Study on Optimization of I and C Architecture for Research Reactors Using Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahman, Khaili Ur; Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    The optimization in terms of redundancy of modules and components in Instrumentation and Control (I and C) architecture is based on cost and availability assuming regulatory requirements are satisfied. The motive of this study is to find an optimized I and C architecture, either in hybrid formation, fully digital or analog, with respect to system availability and relative cost of architecture. The cost of research reactors I and C systems is prone to have effect on marketing competitiveness. As a demonstrative example, the reactor protection system of research reactors is selected. The four cases with different architecture formation were developed with single and double redundancy of bi-stable modules, coincidence processor module, and safety or protection circuit actuation logic. The architecture configurations are transformed to reliability block diagram (RBD) based on logical operation and function of modules. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is constructed from RBD to assess availability. The cost estimation was proposed and reliability cost index RI was suggested.

  2. Study on Optimization of I and C Architecture for Research Reactors Using Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, Khaili Ur; Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2013-01-01

    The optimization in terms of redundancy of modules and components in Instrumentation and Control (I and C) architecture is based on cost and availability assuming regulatory requirements are satisfied. The motive of this study is to find an optimized I and C architecture, either in hybrid formation, fully digital or analog, with respect to system availability and relative cost of architecture. The cost of research reactors I and C systems is prone to have effect on marketing competitiveness. As a demonstrative example, the reactor protection system of research reactors is selected. The four cases with different architecture formation were developed with single and double redundancy of bi-stable modules, coincidence processor module, and safety or protection circuit actuation logic. The architecture configurations are transformed to reliability block diagram (RBD) based on logical operation and function of modules. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is constructed from RBD to assess availability. The cost estimation was proposed and reliability cost index RI was suggested

  3. A Mobile Picture Tagging System Using Tree-Structured Layered Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Seol Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Advances in digital media technology have increased in multimedia content. Tagging is one of the most effective methods to manage a great volume of multimedia content. However, manual tagging has limitations such as human fatigue and subjective and ambiguous keywords. In this paper, we present an automatic tagging method to generate semantic annotation on a mobile phone. In order to overcome the constraints of the mobile environment, the method uses two layered Bayesian networks. In contrast to existing techniques, this approach attempts to design probabilistic models with fixed tree structures and intermediate nodes. To evaluate the performance of this method, an experiment is conducted with data collected over a month. The result shows the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed method. Furthermore, a simple graphic user interface is developed to visualize and evaluate recognized activities and probabilities.

  4. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  5. System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

    2018-05-01

    In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

  6. Visible technologies, invisible organisations: An empirical study of public beliefs about electricity supply networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Sherry-Brennan, Fionnguala

    2010-01-01

    Reducing carbon emissions in the energy system poses significant challenges to electricity transmission and distribution networks. Whilst these challenges are as much social as economic or technical, to date few research studies have investigated public beliefs about electricity supply networks. This research aimed to address this gap by means of a nationally representative study of UK adults (n=1041), probing beliefs about how electricity reaches the home, responsibility for electricity supply, associations with the words 'National Grid', as well as beliefs about the planning of new infrastructure. Findings suggest that electricity networks are represented predominantly in terms of technologies rather than organisations, specifically in terms of familiar, visible components such as cables or wires, rather than more systemic concepts such as networks. Transmission and distribution network operators were largely invisible to members of the public. In terms of planning new lines, most respondents assumed that government ministers were involved in decision-making, while local residents were widely perceived to have little influence; moreover, there was strong public support for placing new power lines underground, regardless of the cost. In conclusion, organisational invisibility, coupled with low expectations of participatory involvement, could provoke public opposition and delay siting new network infrastructure.

  7. Use of dynamic Bayesian networks for life extension assessment of ageing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramírez, Pedro A. Pérez; Utne, Ingrid Bouwer

    2015-01-01

    Extending the operating lifetime of ageing technical systems is of great interest for industrial applications. Life extension requires identifying and selecting decision alternatives which allow for a safe and economic operation of the system beyond its design lifetime. This article proposes a dynamic Bayesian network for assessing the life extension of ageing repairable systems. The main objective of the model is to provide decision support based on the system performance during a finite time horizon, which is defined by the life extension period. The model has three main applications: (i) assessing and selecting optimal decision alternatives for the life extension at present time, based on historical data; (ii) identifying and minimizing the factors that have a negative impact on the system performance; and (iii) reassessing and optimizing the decision alternatives during operation throughout the life extension period, based on updating the model with new operational data gathered. A case study illustrates the application of the model for life extension of a real firewater pump system in an oil and gas facility. The case study analyzes three decision alternatives, where preventive maintenance and functional test policies are optimized, and the uncertainty involved in each alternative is computed. - Highlights: • A dynamic Bayesian network is used for predicting the system performance. • The performance is measured with relevant variables: cost; unavailability; safety. • The model can be used when scarce data is available, no degradation data is needed. • The uncertainty associated to each alternative is computed in the model. • A detailed case study of a real safety system shows the applicability of the model

  8. Assessing offshore emergency evacuation behavior in a virtual environment using a Bayesian Network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musharraf, Mashrura; Smith, Jennifer; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian; MacKinnon, Scott

    2016-01-01

    In the performance influencing factor (PIF) hierarchy, person-based influencing factors reside in the top level along with machine-based, team-based, organization-based and situation/stressor-based factors. Though person-based PIFs like morale, motivation, and attitude (MMA) play an important role in shaping performance, it is nearly impossible to assess such PIFs directly. However, it is possible to measure behavioral indicators (e.g. compliance, use of information) that can provide insight regarding the state of the unobservable person-based PIFs. One common approach to measuring these indicators is to carry out a self-reported questionnaire survey. Significant work has been done to make such questionnaires reliable, but the potential validity problem associated with any questionnaire is that the data are subjective and thus may bear a limited relationship to reality. This paper describes the use of a virtual environment to measure behavioral indicators, which in turn can be used as proxies to assess otherwise unobservable PIFs like MMA. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is first developed to define the relationship between person-based PIFs and measurable behavioral indicators. The paper then shows how these indicators can be measured using evidence collected from a virtual environment of an offshore petroleum installation. A study that focused on emergency evacuation scenarios was done with 36 participants. The participants were first assessed using a multiple choice test. They were then assessed based on their observed performance during simulated offshore emergency evacuation conditions. A comparison of the two assessments demonstrates the potential benefits and challenges of using virtual environments to assess behavioral indicators, and thus the person-based PIFs. - Highlights: • New approach to use virtual environment as measure of behavioral indicators. • New model to study morale, motivation, and attitude. • Bayesian Network model to define the

  9. Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kee-Hoon Kim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, recognizing a user’s daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user’s obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the “Five W’s”, and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54–14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing.

  10. Modular Bayesian Networks with Low-Power Wearable Sensors for Recognizing Eating Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kee-Hoon

    2017-01-01

    Recently, recognizing a user’s daily activity using a smartphone and wearable sensors has become a popular issue. However, in contrast with the ideal definition of an experiment, there could be numerous complex activities in real life with respect to its various background and contexts: time, space, age, culture, and so on. Recognizing these complex activities with limited low-power sensors, considering the power and memory constraints of the wearable environment and the user’s obtrusiveness at once is not an easy problem, although it is very crucial for the activity recognizer to be practically useful. In this paper, we recognize activity of eating, which is one of the most typical examples of a complex activity, using only daily low-power mobile and wearable sensors. To organize the related contexts systemically, we have constructed the context model based on activity theory and the “Five W’s”, and propose a Bayesian network with 88 nodes to predict uncertain contexts probabilistically. The structure of the proposed Bayesian network is designed by a modular and tree-structured approach to reduce the time complexity and increase the scalability. To evaluate the proposed method, we collected the data with 10 different activities from 25 volunteers of various ages, occupations, and jobs, and have obtained 79.71% accuracy, which outperforms other conventional classifiers by 7.54–14.4%. Analyses of the results showed that our probabilistic approach could also give approximate results even when one of contexts or sensor values has a very heterogeneous pattern or is missing. PMID:29232937

  11. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  12. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  13. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of the Interplay between EGFR and Hedgehog Signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fröhlich, Holger; Bahamondez, Gloria; Götschel, Frank; Korf, Ulrike

    2015-01-01

    Aberrant activation of sonic Hegdehog (SHH) signaling has been found to disrupt cellular differentiation in many human cancers and to increase proliferation. The SHH pathway is known to cross-talk with EGFR dependent signaling. Recent studies experimentally addressed this interplay in Daoy cells, which are presumable a model system for medulloblastoma, a highly malignant brain tumor that predominately occurs in children. Currently ongoing are several clinical trials for different solid cancers, which are designed to validate the clinical benefits of targeting the SHH in combination with other pathways. This has motivated us to investigate interactions between EGFR and SHH dependent signaling in greater depth. To our knowledge, there is no mathematical model describing the interplay between EGFR and SHH dependent signaling in medulloblastoma so far. Here we come up with a fully probabilistic approach using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). To build our model, we made use of literature based knowledge describing SHH and EGFR signaling and integrated gene expression (Illumina) and cellular location dependent time series protein expression data (Reverse Phase Protein Arrays). We validated our model by sub-sampling training data and making Bayesian predictions on the left out test data. Our predictions focusing on key transcription factors and p70S6K, showed a high level of concordance with experimental data. Furthermore, the stability of our model was tested by a parametric bootstrap approach. Stable network features were in agreement with published data. Altogether we believe that our model improved our understanding of the interplay between two highly oncogenic signaling pathways in Daoy cells. This may open new perspectives for the future therapy of Hedghog/EGF-dependent solid tumors.

  14. Wind Farm Reliability Modelling Using Bayesian Networks and Semi-Markov Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Adam Sobolewski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Technical reliability plays an important role among factors affecting the power output of a wind farm. The reliability is determined by an internal collection grid topology and reliability of its electrical components, e.g. generators, transformers, cables, switch breakers, protective relays, and busbars. A wind farm reliability’s quantitative measure can be the probability distribution of combinations of operating and failed states of the farm’s wind turbines. The operating state of a wind turbine is its ability to generate power and to transfer it to an external power grid, which means the availability of the wind turbine and other equipment necessary for the power transfer to the external grid. This measure can be used for quantitative analysis of the impact of various wind farm topologies and the reliability of individual farm components on the farm reliability, and for determining the expected farm output power with consideration of the reliability. This knowledge may be useful in an analysis of power generation reliability in power systems. The paper presents probabilistic models that quantify the wind farm reliability taking into account the above-mentioned technical factors. To formulate the reliability models Bayesian networks and semi-Markov processes were used. Using Bayesian networks the wind farm structural reliability was mapped, as well as quantitative characteristics describing equipment reliability. To determine the characteristics semi-Markov processes were used. The paper presents an example calculation of: (i probability distribution of the combination of both operating and failed states of four wind turbines included in the wind farm, and (ii expected wind farm output power with consideration of its reliability.

  15. Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

    2018-02-01

    The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

    2015-01-01

    The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

  17. Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima

    2015-01-01

    A domino effect is a low frequency high consequence chain of accidents where a primary accident (usually fire and explosion) in a unit triggers secondary accidents in adjacent units. High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical infrastructures make them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects can be considered as time dependent processes. Thus, not only the identification of involved units but also their temporal entailment in the chain of accidents matter. More importantly, in the case of domino-induced fires which can generally last much longer compared to explosions, foreseeing the temporal evolution of domino effects and, in particular, predicting the most probable sequence of accidents (or involved units) in a domino effect can be of significance in the allocation of preventive and protective safety measures. Although many attempts have been made to identify the spatial evolution of domino effects, the temporal evolution of such accidents has been overlooked. We have proposed a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network to model both the spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects and also to quantify the most probable sequence of accidents in a potential domino effect. The application of the developed methodology has been demonstrated via a hypothetical fuel storage plant. - Highlights: • A Dynamic Bayesian Network methodology has been developed to model domino effects. • Considering time-dependencies, both spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects have been modeled. • The concept of most probable sequence of accidents has been proposed instead of the most probable combination of accidents. • Using backward analysis, the most vulnerable units have been identified during a potential domino effect. • The proposed methodology does not need to identify a unique primary unit (accident) for domino effect modeling

  18. Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, D S; Mengersen, K; Alford, R A; Schwarzkopf, L

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for

  19. Evaluating Vegetation Potential for Wildfire Impacted Watershed Using a Bayesian Network Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, L. V.; Stone, M. C.; Morrison, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making for natural resource management is complex especially for fire impacted watersheds in the Southwestern US because of the vital importance of water resources, exorbitant cost of fire management and restoration, and the risks of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). While riparian and terrestrial vegetation are extremely important to ecosystem health and provide ecosystem services, loss of vegetation due to wildfire, post-fire flooding, and debris flows can lead to further degradation of the watershed and increased vulnerability to erosion and debris flow. Land managers are charged with taking measures to mitigate degradation of the watershed effectively and efficiently with limited time, money, and data. For our study, a Bayesian network (BN) approach is implemented to understand vegetation potential for Kashe-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument in the fire-impacted Peralta Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, USA. We implement both two-dimensional hydrodynamic and Bayesian network modeling to incorporate spatial variability in the system. Our coupled modeling framework presents vegetation recruitment and succession potential for three representative plant types (native riparian, native terrestrial, and non-native) under several hydrologic scenarios and management actions. In our BN model, we use variables that address timing, hydrologic, and groundwater conditions as well as recruitment and succession constraints for the plant types based on expert knowledge and literature. Our approach allows us to utilize small and incomplete data, incorporate expert knowledge, and explicitly account for uncertainty in the system. Our findings can be used to help land managers and local decision-makers determine their plan of action to increase watershed health and resilience.

  20. A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xianguo; Liu, Huitao; Zhang, Limao; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Deng, Qianli; Teng, Jiaying

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision approach with step-by-step procedures based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), aiming to provide guidelines for dynamic safety analysis of the tunnel-induced road surface damage over time. The proposed DBN-based approach can accurately illustrate the dynamic and updated feature of geological, design and mechanical variables as the construction progress evolves, in order to overcome deficiencies of traditional fault analysis methods. Adopting the predictive, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis techniques in the DBN inference, this approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward control respectively on a quantitative basis, and provide real-time support before and after an accident. A case study in relating to dynamic safety analysis in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, as well as its application potential. The relationships between the DBN-based and BN-based approaches are further discussed according to analysis results. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety analysis in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a dynamic project environment. - Highlights: • A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based approach for safety decision support is developed. • This approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward analysis and control. • A case concerning dynamic safety analysis in Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented. • DBN-based approach can perform a higher accuracy than traditional static BN-based approach

  1. Emulation of reionization simulations for Bayesian inference of astrophysics parameters using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmit, C. J.; Pritchard, J. R.

    2018-03-01

    Next generation radio experiments such as LOFAR, HERA, and SKA are expected to probe the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and claim a first direct detection of the cosmic 21cm signal within the next decade. Data volumes will be enormous and can thus potentially revolutionize our understanding of the early Universe and galaxy formation. However, numerical modelling of the EoR can be prohibitively expensive for Bayesian parameter inference and how to optimally extract information from incoming data is currently unclear. Emulation techniques for fast model evaluations have recently been proposed as a way to bypass costly simulations. We consider the use of artificial neural networks as a blind emulation technique. We study the impact of training duration and training set size on the quality of the network prediction and the resulting best-fitting values of a parameter search. A direct comparison is drawn between our emulation technique and an equivalent analysis using 21CMMC. We find good predictive capabilities of our network using training sets of as low as 100 model evaluations, which is within the capabilities of fully numerical radiative transfer codes.

  2. A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santra, Tapesh, E-mail: tapesh.santra@ucd.ie [Systems Biology Ireland, University College Dublin, Dublin (Ireland)

    2014-05-20

    Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

  3. A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santra, Tapesh

    2014-01-01

    Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

  4. Deliverable 7.2-2: Bayesian Belief Networks: Linking abiotic and biotic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Geest, Gerben; Kramer, Lilith; Buijse, Tom

    2017-01-01

    Aquatic ecosystems in Europe have been heavily degraded over the past century, as a result of stressors including eutrophication, hydromorphological alterations and overfishing. Accordingly, many measures have been carried out or are planned to improve the ecological status of water bodies. For t...

  5. Developing a Risk Model for Fire in Passenger Ships - Based on Bayesian Belief Network

    OpenAIRE

    Dokmo, Hanne Bjørkås

    2016-01-01

    Passenger ships, especially cruise ships, are rapidly increasing in size. With larger vessels, comes a greater risk to the passengers if something where to happen. A fire on a passenger vessel can spread quickly, and with as much as thousands of people needing to be evacuated many things could go wrong. The issue of the safety on board is therefore crucial to consider, seeing as the consequences could be tremendous. There are three types of passenger ships; Passenger vessel, RoPax vessel and ...

  6. Using Bayesian belief networks for reliability management : construction and evaluation: a step by step approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, M.J.H.A.

    2010-01-01

    In the capital goods industry, there is a growing need to manage reliability throughout the product development process. A number of trends can be identified that have a strong effect on the way in which reliability prediction and management is approached, i.e.: - The lifecycle costs approach that

  7. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J; El Naqa, I

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  8. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); El Naqa, I [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  9. A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Al Lozi, Rawan; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O; Bradley, Jeffrey D; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-01-01

    Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

  10. A Bayesian network meta-analysis on second-line systemic therapy in advanced gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaofu; Ko, Yoo-Joung; Berry, Scott; Shah, Keya; Lee, Esther; Chan, Kelvin

    2017-07-01

    It is unclear which regimen is the most efficacious among the available therapies for advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. We performed a network meta-analysis to determine their relative benefits. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases and American Society of Clinical Oncology abstracts up to June 2014 to identify phase III RCTs on advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. Overall survival (OS) data were the primary outcome of interest. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted from the publications on the basis of reported values or were extracted from survival curves by established methods. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed with WinBUGS to compare all regimens simultaneously. Eight RCTs (2439 patients) were identified and contained extractable data for quantitative analysis. Network meta-analysis showed that paclitaxel plus ramucirumab was superior to single-agent ramucirumab [OS HR 0.51, 95 % credible region (CR) 0.30-0.86], paclitaxel (OS HR 0.81, 95 % CR 0.68-0.96), docetaxel (OS HR 0.56, 95 % CR 0.33-0.94), and irinotecan (OS HR 0.71, 95 % CR 0.52-0.99). Paclitaxel plus ramucirumab also had an 89 % probability of being the best regimen among all these regimens. Single-agent ramucirumab, paclitaxel, docetaxel, and irinotecan were comparable to each other with respect to OS and were superior to best supportive care. This is the first network meta-analysis to compare all second-line regimens reported in phase III gastric cancer trials. The results suggest the paclitaxel plus ramucirumab combination is the most effective therapy and should be the reference regimen for future comparative trials.

  11. Bayesian network representing system dynamics in risk analysis of nuclear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varuttamaseni, Athi

    2011-12-01

    A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model is used in conjunction with the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) regression method to analyze the risk associated with the loss of feedwater accident coupled with a subsequent initiation of the feed and bleed operation in the Zion-1 nuclear power plant. The use of the DBN allows the joint probability distribution to be factorized, enabling the analysis to be done on many simpler network structures rather than on one complicated structure. The construction of the DBN model assumes conditional independence relations among certain key reactor parameters. The choice of parameter to model is based on considerations of the macroscopic balance statements governing the behavior of the reactor under a quasi-static assumption. The DBN is used to relate the peak clad temperature to a set of independent variables that are known to be important in determining the success of the feed and bleed operation. A simple linear relationship is then used to relate the clad temperature to the core damage probability. To obtain a quantitative relationship among different nodes in the DBN, surrogates of the RELAP5 reactor transient analysis code are used. These surrogates are generated by applying the ACE algorithm to output data obtained from about 50 RELAP5 cases covering a wide range of the selected independent variables. These surrogates allow important safety parameters such as the fuel clad temperature to be expressed as a function of key reactor parameters such as the coolant temperature and pressure together with important independent variables such as the scram delay time. The time-dependent core damage probability is calculated by sampling the independent variables from their probability distributions and propagate the information up through the Bayesian network to give the clad temperature. With the knowledge of the clad temperature and the assumption that the core damage probability has a one-to-one relationship to it, we have

  12. Temporal abstraction and temporal Bayesian networks in clinical domains: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orphanou, Kalia; Stassopoulou, Athena; Keravnou, Elpida

    2014-03-01

    Temporal abstraction (TA) of clinical data aims to abstract and interpret clinical data into meaningful higher-level interval concepts. Abstracted concepts are used for diagnostic, prediction and therapy planning purposes. On the other hand, temporal Bayesian networks (TBNs) are temporal extensions of the known probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian networks. TBNs can represent temporal relationships between events and their state changes, or the evolution of a process, through time. This paper offers a survey on techniques/methods from these two areas that were used independently in many clinical domains (e.g. diabetes, hepatitis, cancer) for various clinical tasks (e.g. diagnosis, prognosis). A main objective of this survey, in addition to presenting the key aspects of TA and TBNs, is to point out important benefits from a potential integration of TA and TBNs in medical domains and tasks. The motivation for integrating these two areas is their complementary function: TA provides clinicians with high level views of data while TBNs serve as a knowledge representation and reasoning tool under uncertainty, which is inherent in all clinical tasks. Key publications from these two areas of relevance to clinical systems, mainly circumscribed to the latest two decades, are reviewed and classified. TA techniques are compared on the basis of: (a) knowledge acquisition and representation for deriving TA concepts and (b) methodology for deriving basic and complex temporal abstractions. TBNs are compared on the basis of: (a) representation of time, (b) knowledge representation and acquisition, (c) inference methods and the computational demands of the network, and (d) their applications in medicine. The survey performs an extensive comparative analysis to illustrate the separate merits and limitations of various TA and TBN techniques used in clinical systems with the purpose of anticipating potential gains through an integration of the two techniques, thus leading to a

  13. Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

  14. A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

  15. Assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards using Bayesian networks based on standard penetration test data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Xiao-Wei; Bai, Xu; Hu, Ji-Lei; Qiu, Jiang-Nan

    2018-05-01

    Liquefaction-induced hazards such as sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading are responsible for considerable damage to engineering structures during major earthquakes. Presently, there is no effective empirical approach that can assess different liquefaction-induced hazards in one model. This is because of the uncertainties and complexity of the factors related to seismic liquefaction and liquefaction-induced hazards. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to integrate multiple factors related to seismic liquefaction, sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading into a model based on standard penetration test data. The constructed BN model can assess four different liquefaction-induced hazards together. In a case study, the BN method outperforms an artificial neural network and Ishihara and Yoshimine's simplified method in terms of accuracy, Brier score, recall, precision, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). This demonstrates that the BN method is a good alternative tool for the risk assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards. Furthermore, the performance of the BN model in estimating liquefaction-induced hazards in Japan's 2011 Tōhoku earthquake confirms its correctness and reliability compared with the liquefaction potential index approach. The proposed BN model can also predict whether the soil becomes liquefied after an earthquake and can deduce the chain reaction process of liquefaction-induced hazards and perform backward reasoning. The assessment results from the proposed model provide informative guidelines for decision-makers to detect the damage state of a field following liquefaction.

  16. Application of Bayesian belief net in modelling the origin and effects of terrigenous dissolved organic matter in a boreal aquatic ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahikainen, Mika; Hoikkala, Laura; Soinne, Helena

    2013-04-01

    Bayesian belief nets (BBN) are capable of developing holistic understanding of the origin, transportation, and effects of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in ecosystems. The role of riverine DOM, transporting carbon and macronutrients N and P into lakes and coastal areas, has been largely neglected in research about processes influencing aquatic ecosystem functions although dissolved organic matter provides a significant nutrient source for primary producers in aquatic environments. This neglect has also contributed to the environmental policies which are focused in the control of inorganic N and P load. It is of great social and economic interest to gain improved knowledge of whether the currently applied policy instruments act in synchrony in mitigating eutrophication caused by N and P versus DOM load. DOM is a complex mixture of compounds that are poorly characterized. DOM export is strongly regulated by land use (urban, forest, agricultural land, peat land), in addition to soil type and soil organic carbon concentration. Furthermore, the composition of DOM varies according to its origin. The fate and effects of DOM loads in the fresh water and coastal environments depend, for example, on their biodegradability. Degradation kinetics again depends on the interactions between composition of the DOM pool and the receiving environment. Impact studies of dissolved organic matter pose a complicated environmental impact assessment challenge for science. There exists strategic uncertainty in the science about the causal dependencies and about the quality of knowledge related to DOM. There is a clear need for systematization in the approach as uncertainty is typically high about many key processes. A cross-sectorial, integrative analysis will aid in focusing on the most relevant issues. A holistic and unambiguous analysis will provide support for policy-decisions and management by indicating which outcome is more probable than another. The task requires coupling complex

  17. Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-31

    Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 31-05-2016 15-Apr-2014 14-Jan-2015 Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics...of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural...Transfer N/A Number of graduating undergraduates who achieved a 3.5 GPA to 4.0 (4.0 max scale ): Number of graduating undergraduates funded by a DoD funded

  18. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  19. Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

    2018-04-01

    Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  20. Bayesian network analysis reveals alterations to default mode network connectivity in individuals at risk for Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Yu, Jing; Zhang, Shouzi; Bao, Feng; Wang, Pengyun; Huang, Xin; Li, Juan

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with abnormal functioning of the default mode network (DMN). Functional connectivity (FC) changes to the DMN have been found in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), which is the prodromal stage of AD. However, whether or not aMCI also alters the effective connectivity (EC) of the DMN remains unknown. We employed a combined group independent component analysis (ICA) and Bayesian network (BN) learning approach to resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data from 17 aMCI patients and 17 controls, in order to establish the EC pattern of DMN, and to evaluate changes occurring in aMCI. BN analysis demonstrated heterogeneous regional convergence degree across DMN regions, which were organized into two closely interacting subsystems. Compared to controls, the aMCI group showed altered directed connectivity weights between DMN regions in the fronto-parietal, temporo-frontal, and temporo-parietal pathways. The aMCI group also exhibited altered regional convergence degree in the right inferior parietal lobule. Moreover, we found EC changes in DMN regions in aMCI were correlated with regional FC levels, and the connectivity metrics were associated with patients' cognitive performance. This study provides novel sights into our understanding of the functional architecture of the DMN and adds to a growing body of work demonstrating the importance of the DMN as a mechanism of aMCI.

  1. Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0

  2. Modelling Inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondeynaz, C.; Lopez-Puga, J.; Carmona-Moreno, C.

    2012-04-01

    Improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). This inter-dependency has been recognised with the adoption of the "Integrated Water Resources Management" principles that push for the integration of these various dimensions involved in WSS delivery to ensure an efficient and sustainable management. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector in particular in developing countries where WSS still represent an important leverage for livelihood improvement. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a coherent database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 29 indicators from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data focusing on developing countries (Celine et al, 2011 under publication). The aim of this work is to model the WatSan4Dev dataset using probabilistic models to identify the key variables influencing or being influenced by the water supply and sanitation access levels. Bayesian Network Models are suitable to map the conditional dependencies between variables and also allows ordering variables by level of influence on the dependent variable. Separated models have been built for water supply and for sanitation because of different behaviour. The models are validated if complying with statistical criteria but either with scientific knowledge and literature. A two steps approach has been adopted to build the structure of the model; Bayesian network is first built for each thematic cluster of variables (e.g governance, agricultural pressure, or human development) keeping a detailed level for interpretation later one. A global model is then built based on significant indicators of each cluster being previously modelled. The structure of the

  3. Convolutional Deep Belief Networks for Single-Cell/Object Tracking in Computational Biology and Computer Vision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhong, Bineng; Pan, Shengnan; Zhang, Hongbo; Wang, Tian; Du, Jixiang; Chen, Duansheng; Cao, Liujuan

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose deep architecture to dynamically learn the most discriminative features from data for both single-cell and object tracking in computational biology and computer vision. Firstly, the discriminative features are automatically learned via a convolutional deep belief network (CDBN). Secondly, we design a simple yet effective method to transfer features learned from CDBNs on the source tasks for generic purpose to the object tracking tasks using only limited amount of tra...

  4. Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: From a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

    2012-12-01

    Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

  5. Audio-Visual Tibetan Speech Recognition Based on a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network for Natural Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Audio-visual speech recognition is a natural and robust approach to improving human-robot interaction in noisy environments. Although multi-stream Dynamic Bayesian Network and coupled HMM are widely used for audio-visual speech recognition, they fail to learn the shared features between modalities and ignore the dependency of features among the frames within each discrete state. In this paper, we propose a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network (DDBN to perform unsupervised extraction of spatial-temporal multimodal features from Tibetan audio-visual speech data and build an accurate audio-visual speech recognition model under a no frame-independency assumption. The experiment results on Tibetan speech data from some real-world environments showed the proposed DDBN outperforms the state-of-art methods in word recognition accuracy.

  6. Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

  7. Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shan, Xian; Liu, Kang; Sun, Pei-Liang

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential...

  8. A functional-dependencies-based Bayesian networks learning method and its application in a mobile commerce system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Stephen Shaoyi; Wang, Huai Qing; Li, Qiu Dan; Liu, Wei Yi

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents a new method for learning Bayesian networks from functional dependencies (FD) and third normal form (3NF) tables in relational databases. The method sets up a linkage between the theory of relational databases and probabilistic reasoning models, which is interesting and useful especially when data are incomplete and inaccurate. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by its implementation in a mobile commerce system.

  9. Quantum Graphical Models and Belief Propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leifer, M.S.; Poulin, D.

    2008-01-01

    Belief Propagation algorithms acting on Graphical Models of classical probability distributions, such as Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks, are amongst the most powerful known methods for deriving probabilistic inferences amongst large numbers of random variables. This paper presents a generalization of these concepts and methods to the quantum case, based on the idea that quantum theory can be thought of as a noncommutative, operator-valued, generalization of classical probability theory. Some novel characterizations of quantum conditional independence are derived, and definitions of Quantum n-Bifactor Networks, Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks are proposed. The structure of Quantum Markov Networks is investigated and some partial characterization results are obtained, along the lines of the Hammersley-Clifford theorem. A Quantum Belief Propagation algorithm is presented and is shown to converge on 1-Bifactor Networks and Markov Networks when the underlying graph is a tree. The use of Quantum Belief Propagation as a heuristic algorithm in cases where it is not known to converge is discussed. Applications to decoding quantum error correcting codes and to the simulation of many-body quantum systems are described

  10. An Investigation into the Relationship among Psychiatric, Demographic and Socio-Economic Variables with Bayesian Network Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunal Bilek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the Beck Depression Inventory score, the Beck Hopelessness Scale score and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem score and the relationships among the psychiatric, demographic and socio-economic variables with Bayesian network modeling. The data of 823 university students consist of 21 continuous and discrete relevant psychiatric, demographic and socio-economic variables. After the discretization of the continuous variables by two approaches, two Bayesian networks models are constructed using the b n l e a r n package in R, and the results are presented via figures and probabilities. One of the most significant results is that in the first Bayesian network model, the gender of the students influences the level of depression, with female students being more depressive. In the second model, social activity directly influences the level of depression. In each model, depression influences both the level of hopelessness and self-esteem in students; additionally, as the level of depression increases, the level of hopelessness increases, but the level of self-esteem drops.

  11. bNEAT: a Bayesian network method for detecting epistatic interactions in genome-wide association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xue-wen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions plays a significant role in improving pathogenesis, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of complex human diseases. A recent study in automatic detection of epistatic interactions shows that Markov Blanket-based methods are capable of finding genetic variants strongly associated with common diseases and reducing false positives when the number of instances is large. Unfortunately, a typical dataset from genome-wide association studies consists of very limited number of examples, where current methods including Markov Blanket-based method may perform poorly. Results To address small sample problems, we propose a Bayesian network-based approach (bNEAT to detect epistatic interactions. The proposed method also employs a Branch-and-Bound technique for learning. We apply the proposed method to simulated datasets based on four disease models and a real dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms Markov Blanket-based methods and other commonly-used methods, especially when the number of samples is small. Conclusions Our results show bNEAT can obtain a strong power regardless of the number of samples and is especially suitable for detecting epistatic interactions with slight or no marginal effects. The merits of the proposed approach lie in two aspects: a suitable score for Bayesian network structure learning that can reflect higher-order epistatic interactions and a heuristic Bayesian network structure learning method.

  12. A non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian network with sequentially coupled interaction parameters for applications in systems and synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-07-12

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homogeneous DBNs fail to model the non-stationarity and time-varying nature of the gene regulatory processes. Various authors have therefore recently proposed combining DBNs with multiple changepoint processes to obtain time varying dynamic Bayesian networks (TV-DBNs). However, TV-DBNs are not without problems. Gene expression time series are typically short, which leaves the model over-flexible, leading to over-fitting or inflated inference uncertainty. In the present paper, we introduce a Bayesian regularization scheme that addresses this difficulty. Our approach is based on the rationale that changes in gene regulatory processes appear gradually during an organism's life cycle or in response to a changing environment, and we have integrated this notion in the prior distribution of the TV-DBN parameters. We have extensively tested our regularized TV-DBN model on synthetic data, in which we have simulated short non-homogeneous time series produced from a system subject to gradual change. We have then applied our method to real-world gene expression time series, measured during the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster, under artificially generated constant light condition in Arabidopsis thaliana, and from a synthetically designed strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae exposed to a changing environment.

  13. Constrained Bayesian Active Learning of Interference Channels in Cognitive Radio Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsakmalis, Anestis; Chatzinotas, Symeon; Ottersten, Bjorn

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a sequential probing method for interference constraint learning is proposed to allow a centralized Cognitive Radio Network (CRN) accessing the frequency band of a Primary User (PU) in an underlay cognitive scenario with a designed PU protection specification. The main idea is that the CRN probes the PU and subsequently eavesdrops the reverse PU link to acquire the binary ACK/NACK packet. This feedback indicates whether the probing-induced interference is harmful or not and can be used to learn the PU interference constraint. The cognitive part of this sequential probing process is the selection of the power levels of the Secondary Users (SUs) which aims to learn the PU interference constraint with a minimum number of probing attempts while setting a limit on the number of harmful probing-induced interference events or equivalently of NACK packet observations over a time window. This constrained design problem is studied within the Active Learning (AL) framework and an optimal solution is derived and implemented with a sophisticated, accurate and fast Bayesian Learning method, the Expectation Propagation (EP). The performance of this solution is also demonstrated through numerical simulations and compared with modified versions of AL techniques we developed in earlier work.

  14. Design of Korean nuclear reliability data-base network using a two-stage Bayesian concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Jeong, K.S.; Chae, S.K.

    1987-01-01

    In an analysis of probabilistic risk, safety, and reliability of a nuclear power plant, the reliability data base (DB) must be established first. As the importance of the reliability data base increases, event reporting systems such as the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Licensee Event Report and the International Atomic Energy Agency's Incident Reporting System have been developed. In Korea, however, the systematic reliability data base is not yet available. Therefore, foreign data bases have been directly quoted in reliability analyses of Korean plants. In order to develop a reliability data base for Korean plants, the problem is which methodology is to be used, and the application limits of the selected method must be solved and clarified. After starting the commercial operation of Korea Nuclear Unit-1 (KNU-1) in 1978, six nuclear power plants have begun operation. Of these, only KNU-3 is a Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized heavy-water reactor, and the others are all pressurized water reactors. This paper describes the proposed reliability data-base network (KNRDS) for Korean nuclear power plants in the context of two-stage Bayesian (TSB) procedure of Kaplan. It describes the concept of TSB to obtain the Korean-specific plant reliability data base, which is updated with the incorporation of both the reported generic reliability data and the operation experiences of similar plants

  15. Risk-based reconfiguration of safety monitoring system using dynamic Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohda, Takehisa; Cui Weimin

    2007-01-01

    To prevent an abnormal event from leading to an accident, the role of its safety monitoring system is very important. The safety monitoring system detects symptoms of an abnormal event to mitigate its effect at its early stage. As the operation time passes by, the sensor reliability decreases, which implies that the decision criteria of the safety monitoring system should be modified depending on the sensor reliability as well as the system reliability. This paper presents a framework for the decision criteria (or diagnosis logic) of the safety monitoring system. The logic can be dynamically modified based on sensor output data monitored at regular intervals to minimize the expected loss caused by two types of safety monitoring system failure events: failed-dangerous (FD) and failed-safe (FS). The former corresponds to no response under an abnormal system condition, while the latter implies a spurious activation under a normal system condition. Dynamic Bayesian network theory can be applied to modeling the entire system behavior composed of the system and its safety monitoring system. Using the estimated state probabilities, the optimal decision criterion is given to obtain the optimal diagnosis logic. An illustrative example of a three-sensor system shows the merits and characteristics of the proposed method, where the reasonable interpretation of sensor data can be obtained

  16. Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole J.; Wilkins, David C.; Roth, Dan

    2010-01-01

    For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

  17. Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists’ preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Papić-Blagojević

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Marketing approach is associated to market conditions and achieving long term profitability of a company by satisfying consumers’ needs. This approach in tourism does not have to be related only to promoting one touristic destination, but is associated to relation between travel agency and its clients too. It considers that travel agencies adjust their offers to their clients’ needs. In that sense, it is important to analyze the behavior of tourists in the earlier periods with consideration of their preferences. Using Bayesian network, it could be graphically displayed the connection between tourists who have similar taste and relationships between them. On the other hand, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to rank tourist attractions, with also relying on past experience. In this paper we examine possible applications of these two models in tourism in Serbia. The example is hypothetical, but it will serve as a base for future research. Three types of tourism are chosen as a representative in Vojvodina: Cultural, Rural and Business tourism, because they are the bright spot of touristic development in this area. Applied on these forms, analytic hierarchy process has shown its strength in predicting tourists’ preferences.

  18. An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

  19. A template for constructing Bayesian networks in forensic biology cases when considering activity level propositions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Duncan; Biedermann, Alex; Hicks, Tacha; Champod, Christophe

    2018-03-01

    The hierarchy of propositions has been accepted amongst the forensic science community for some time. It is also accepted that the higher up the hierarchy the propositions are, against which the scientist are competent to evaluate their results, the more directly useful the testimony will be to the court. Because each case represents a unique set of circumstances and findings, it is difficult to come up with a standard structure for evaluation. One common tool that assists in this task is Bayesian networks (BNs). There is much diversity in the way that BN can be constructed. In this work, we develop a template for BN construction that allows sufficient flexibility to address most cases, but enough commonality and structure that the flow of information in the BN is readily recognised at a glance. We provide seven steps that can be used to construct BNs within this structure and demonstrate how they can be applied, using a case example. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Diagnosis and Prognostic of Wastewater Treatment System Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Yang, Haizhen; Liang, XiaoFeng

    2010-11-01

    Wastewater treatment is a complicated and dynamic process. The treatment effect can be influenced by many variables in microbial, chemical and physical aspects. These variables are always uncertain. Due to the complex biological reaction mechanisms, the highly time-varying and multivariable aspects, the diagnosis and prognostic of wastewater treatment system are still difficult in practice. Bayesian network (BN) is one of the best methods for dealing with uncertainty in the artificial intelligence field. Because of the powerful inference ability and convenient decision mechanism, BN can be employed into the model description and influencing factor analysis of wastewater treatment system with great flexibility and applicability.In this paper, taking modified sequencing batch reactor (MSBR) as an analysis object, BN model was constructed according to the influent water quality, operational condition and effluent effect data of MSBR, and then a novel approach based on BN is proposed to analyze the influencing factors of the wastewater treatment system. The approach presented gives an effective tool for diagnosing and predicting analysis of the wastewater treatment system. On the basis of the influent water quality and operational condition, effluent effect can be predicted. Moreover, according to the effluent effect, the influent water quality and operational condition also can be deduced.

  1. A Bayesian network meta-analysis of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiotherapy for brain metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xi; Liu, Wen-Jie; Li, Bing; Shen, Ze-Tian; Shen, Jun-Shu; Zhu, Xi-Xu

    2017-08-01

    This study was conducted to compare the effects of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiotherapy (SRS) in treatment of brain metastasis.A systematical retrieval in PubMed and Embase databases was performed for relative literatures on the effects of WBRT and SRS in treatment of brain metastasis. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed by using the ADDIS software. The effect sizes included odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). A random effects model was used for the pooled analysis for all the outcome measures, including 1-year distant control rate, 1-year local control rate, 1-year survival rate, and complication. The consistency was tested by using node-splitting analysis and inconsistency standard deviation. The convergence was estimated according to the Brooks-Gelman-Rubin method.A total of 12 literatures were included in this meta-analysis. WBRT + SRS showed higher 1-year distant control rate than SRS. WBRT + SRS was better for the 1-year local control rate than WBRT. SRS and WBRT + SRS had higher 1-year survival rate than the WBRT. In addition, there was no difference in complication among the three therapies.Comprehensively, WBRT + SRS might be the choice of treatment for brain metastasis.

  2. Sustainable Technology Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Using Bayesian and Social Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhwan Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI have led to a significant increase in the use of AI technologies. Many experts are researching and developing AI technologies in their respective fields, often submitting papers and patent applications as a result. In particular, owing to the characteristics of the patent system that is used to protect the exclusive rights to registered technology, patent documents contain detailed information on the developed technology. Therefore, in this study, we propose a statistical method for analyzing patent data on AI technology to improve our understanding of sustainable technology in the field of AI. We collect patent documents that are related to AI technology, and then analyze the patent data to identify sustainable AI technology. In our analysis, we develop a statistical method that combines social network analysis and Bayesian modeling. Based on the results of the proposed method, we provide a technological structure that can be applied to understand the sustainability of AI technology. To show how the proposed method can be applied to a practical problem, we apply the technological structure to a case study in order to analyze sustainable AI technology.

  3. A Hybrid Approach for Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zubair, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    By using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and non-technical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that the technical faults was one major reason of these accidents. Keep an eye on other point of view it becomes clearer that human behavior like dishonesty, insufficient training, and selfishness are also play a key role to cause these accidents. In this study, a hybrid approach for reliability analysis based on AHP and BN to increase nuclear power plant (NPP) safety has been developed. By using AHP, best alternative to improve safety, design, operation, and to allocate budget for all technical and non-technical factors related with nuclear safety has been investigated. We use a special structure of BN based on the method AHP. The graphs of the BN and the probabilities associated with nodes are designed to translate the knowledge of experts on the selection of best alternative. The results show that the improvement in regulatory authorities will decrease failure probabilities and increase safety and reliability in industrial area.

  4. Novel dynamic Bayesian networks for facial action element recognition and understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Park, Jeong-Seon; Choi, Dong-You; Lee, Sang-Woong

    2011-12-01

    In daily life, language is an important tool of communication between people. Besides language, facial action can also provide a great amount of information. Therefore, facial action recognition has become a popular research topic in the field of human-computer interaction (HCI). However, facial action recognition is quite a challenging task due to its complexity. In a literal sense, there are thousands of facial muscular movements, many of which have very subtle differences. Moreover, muscular movements always occur simultaneously when the pose is changed. To address this problem, we first build a fully automatic facial points detection system based on a local Gabor filter bank and principal component analysis. Then, novel dynamic Bayesian networks are proposed to perform facial action recognition using the junction tree algorithm over a limited number of feature points. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we have used the Korean face database for model training. For testing, we used the CUbiC FacePix, facial expressions and emotion database, Japanese female facial expression database, and our own database. Our experimental results clearly demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

  5. Integration of Pathway Knowledge and Dynamic Bayesian Networks for the Prediction of Oral Cancer Recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourou, Konstantina; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2017-03-01

    Oral squamous cell carcinoma has been characterized as a complex disease which involves dynamic genomic changes at the molecular level. These changes indicate the worth to explore the interactions of the molecules and especially of differentially expressed genes that contribute to cancer progression. Moreover, based on this knowledge the identification of differentially expressed genes and related molecular pathways is of great importance. In the present study, we exploit differentially expressed genes in order to further perform pathway enrichment analysis. According to our results we found significant pathways in which the disease associated genes have been identified as strongly enriched. Furthermore, based on the results of the pathway enrichment analysis we propose a methodology for predicting oral cancer recurrence using dynamic Bayesian networks. The methodology takes into consideration time series gene expression data in order to predict a disease recurrence. Subsequently, we are able to conjecture about the causal interactions between genes in consecutive time intervals. Concerning the performance of the predictive models, the overall accuracy of the algorithm is 81.8% and the area under the ROC curve 89.2% regarding the knowledge from the overrepresented pre-NOTCH Expression and processing pathway.

  6. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  7. A 3D model retrieval approach based on Bayesian networks lightfield descriptor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Qinhan; Li, Yanjun

    2009-12-01

    A new 3D model retrieval methodology is proposed by exploiting a novel Bayesian networks lightfield descriptor (BNLD). There are two key novelties in our approach: (1) a BN-based method for building lightfield descriptor; and (2) a 3D model retrieval scheme based on the proposed BNLD. To overcome the disadvantages of the existing 3D model retrieval methods, we explore BN for building a new lightfield descriptor. Firstly, 3D model is put into lightfield, about 300 binary-views can be obtained along a sphere, then Fourier descriptors and Zernike moments descriptors can be calculated out from binaryviews. Then shape feature sequence would be learned into a BN model based on BN learning algorithm; Secondly, we propose a new 3D model retrieval method by calculating Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) between BNLDs. Beneficial from the statistical learning, our BNLD is noise robustness as compared to the existing methods. The comparison between our method and the lightfield descriptor-based approach is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.

  8. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Sensitivity Study on Availability of I&C Components Using Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman Khalil Ur

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to find out the impact of instrumentation and control (I&C components on the availability of I&C systems in terms of sensitivity analysis using Bayesian network. The analysis has been performed on I&C architecture of reactor protection system. The analysis results would be applied to develop I&C architecture which will meet the desire reliability features and save cost. RPS architecture unavailability P(x=0 and availability P(x=1 were estimated to 6.1276E-05 and 9.9994E-01 for failure (0 and perfect (1 states, respectively. The impact of I&C components on overall system risk has been studied in terms of risk achievement worth (RAW and risk reduction worth (RRW. It is found that circuit breaker failure (TCB, bi-stable processor (BP, sensor transmitter (TR, and pressure transmitter (PT have high impact on risk. The study concludes and recommends that circuit breaker bi-stable processor should be given more consideration while designing I&C architecture.

  10. Bayesian networks and information theory for audio-visual perception modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besson, Patricia; Richiardi, Jonas; Bourdin, Christophe; Bringoux, Lionel; Mestre, Daniel R; Vercher, Jean-Louis

    2010-09-01

    Thanks to their different senses, human observers acquire multiple information coming from their environment. Complex cross-modal interactions occur during this perceptual process. This article proposes a framework to analyze and model these interactions through a rigorous and systematic data-driven process. This requires considering the general relationships between the physical events or factors involved in the process, not only in quantitative terms, but also in term of the influence of one factor on another. We use tools from information theory and probabilistic reasoning to derive relationships between the random variables of interest, where the central notion is that of conditional independence. Using mutual information analysis to guide the model elicitation process, a probabilistic causal model encoded as a Bayesian network is obtained. We exemplify the method by using data collected in an audio-visual localization task for human subjects, and we show that it yields a well-motivated model with good predictive ability. The model elicitation process offers new prospects for the investigation of the cognitive mechanisms of multisensory perception.

  11. Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbakwe, Anthony C; Saka, Anthony A; Choi, Keechoo; Lee, Young-Jae

    2016-08-01

    Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A Risk Analysis of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jeffrey Ryan

    The production of Molybdenum-99 (99Mo) is critical to the field of nuclear medicine, where it is utilized in roughly 80% of all nuclear imaging procedures. In October of 2016, the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor in Canada, which historically had the highest 99Mo production capability worldwide, ceased routine production and will be permanently shut down in 2018. This loss of capacity has led to widespread concern over the ability of the 99Mo supply chain and to meet demand. There is significant disagreement among analyses from trade groups, governments, and other researchers, predicting everything from no significant impact to major worldwide shortages. Using Bayesian networks, this research focused on modeling the 99Mo supply chain to quantify how a disrupting event, such as the unscheduled downtime of a reactor, will impact the global supply. This not only includes quantifying the probability of a shortage occurring, but also identifying which nodes in the supply chain introduce the most risk to better inform decision makers on where future facilities or other risk mitigation techniques should be applied.

  13. Team performance and collective efficacy in the dynamic psychology of competitive team: a Bayesian network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster-Parra, P; García-Mas, A; Ponseti, F J; Leo, F M

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this paper was to discover the relationships among 22 relevant psychological features in semi-professional football players in order to study team's performance and collective efficacy via a Bayesian network (BN). The paper includes optimization of team's performance and collective efficacy using intercausal reasoning pattern which constitutes a very common pattern in human reasoning. The BN is used to make inferences regarding our problem, and therefore we obtain some conclusions; among them: maximizing the team's performance causes a decrease in collective efficacy and when team's performance achieves the minimum value it causes an increase in moderate/high values of collective efficacy. Similarly, we may reason optimizing team collective efficacy instead. It also allows us to determine the features that have the strongest influence on performance and which on collective efficacy. From the BN two different coaching styles were differentiated taking into account the local Markov property: training leadership and autocratic leadership. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. User-Adapted Recommendation of Content on Mobile Devices Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, Hirotoshi; Mizuno, Nobuhiro; Hara, Kousuke; Motomura, Yoichi

    Mobile devices, such as cellular phones and car navigation systems, are essential to daily life. People acquire necessary information and preferred content over communication networks anywhere, anytime. However, usability issues arise from the simplicity of user interfaces themselves. Thus, a recommendation of content that is adapted to a user's preference and situation will help the user select content. In this paper, we describe a method to realize such a system using Bayesian networks. This user-adapted mobile system is based on a user model that provides recommendation of content (i.e., restaurants, shops, and music that are suitable to the user and situation) and that learns incrementally based on accumulated usage history data. However, sufficient samples are not always guaranteed, since a user model would require combined dependency among users, situations, and contents. Therefore, we propose the LK method for modeling, which complements incomplete and insufficient samples using knowledge data, and CPT incremental learning for adaptation based on a small number of samples. In order to evaluate the methods proposed, we applied them to restaurant recommendations made on car navigation systems. The evaluation results confirmed that our model based on the LK method can be expected to provide better generalization performance than that of the conventional method. Furthermore, our system would require much less operation than current car navigation systems from the beginning of use. Our evaluation results also indicate that learning a user's individual preference through CPT incremental learning would be beneficial to many users, even with only a few samples. As a result, we have developed the technology of a system that becomes more adapted to a user the more it is used.

  15. Analysis of Roadway Traffic Accidents Based on Rough Sets and Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxia Xiong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper integrates Rough Sets (RS and Bayesian Networks (BN for roadway traffic accident analysis. RS reduction of attributes is first employed to generate the key set of attributes affecting accident outcomes, which are then fed into a BN structure as nodes for BN construction and accident outcome classification. Such RS-based BN framework combines the advantages of RS in knowledge reduction capability and BN in describing interrelationships among different attributes. The framework is demonstrated using the 100-car naturalistic driving data from Virginia Tech Transportation Institute to predict accident type. Comparative evaluation with the baseline BNs shows the RS-based BNs generally have a higher prediction accuracy and lower network complexity while with comparable prediction coverage and receiver operating characteristic curve area, proving that the proposed RS-based BN overall outperforms the BNs with/without traditional feature selection approaches. The proposed RS-based BN indicates the most significant attributes that affect accident types include pre-crash manoeuvre, driver’s attention from forward roadway to centre mirror, number of secondary tasks undertaken, traffic density, and relation to junction, most of which feature pre-crash driver states and driver behaviours that have not been extensively researched in literature, and could give further insight into the nature of traffic accidents.

  16. Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

    2017-11-01

    There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

  17. DeepQA: improving the estimation of single protein model quality with deep belief networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Hou, Jie; Cheng, Jianlin

    2016-12-05

    Protein quality assessment (QA) useful for ranking and selecting protein models has long been viewed as one of the major challenges for protein tertiary structure prediction. Especially, estimating the quality of a single protein model, which is important for selecting a few good models out of a large model pool consisting of mostly low-quality models, is still a largely unsolved problem. We introduce a novel single-model quality assessment method DeepQA based on deep belief network that utilizes a number of selected features describing the quality of a model from different perspectives, such as energy, physio-chemical characteristics, and structural information. The deep belief network is trained on several large datasets consisting of models from the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiments, several publicly available datasets, and models generated by our in-house ab initio method. Our experiments demonstrate that deep belief network has better performance compared to Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks on the protein model quality assessment problem, and our method DeepQA achieves the state-of-the-art performance on CASP11 dataset. It also outperformed two well-established methods in selecting good outlier models from a large set of models of mostly low quality generated by ab initio modeling methods. DeepQA is a useful deep learning tool for protein single model quality assessment and protein structure prediction. The source code, executable, document and training/test datasets of DeepQA for Linux is freely available to non-commercial users at http://cactus.rnet.missouri.edu/DeepQA/ .

  18. Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Research on Improved Depth Belief Network-Based Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Lu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative analysis and prediction can help to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Quantitative prediction based on traditional model has low accuracy. The variance of model prediction based on shallow neural network is larger. In this paper, cardiovascular disease prediction model based on improved deep belief network (DBN is proposed. Using the reconstruction error, the network depth is determined independently, and unsupervised training and supervised optimization are combined. It ensures the accuracy of model prediction while guaranteeing stability. Thirty experiments were performed independently on the Statlog (Heart and Heart Disease Database data sets in the UCI database. Experimental results showed that the mean of prediction accuracy was 91.26% and 89.78%, respectively. The variance of prediction accuracy was 5.78 and 4.46, respectively.

  20. Bayesian prediction and adaptive sampling algorithms for mobile sensor networks online environmental field reconstruction in space and time

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Yunfei; Dass, Sarat; Maiti, Tapabrata

    2016-01-01

    This brief introduces a class of problems and models for the prediction of the scalar field of interest from noisy observations collected by mobile sensor networks. It also introduces the problem of optimal coordination of robotic sensors to maximize the prediction quality subject to communication and mobility constraints either in a centralized or distributed manner. To solve such problems, fully Bayesian approaches are adopted, allowing various sources of uncertainties to be integrated into an inferential framework effectively capturing all aspects of variability involved. The fully Bayesian approach also allows the most appropriate values for additional model parameters to be selected automatically by data, and the optimal inference and prediction for the underlying scalar field to be achieved. In particular, spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression is formulated for robotic sensors to fuse multifactorial effects of observations, measurement noise, and prior distributions for obtaining the predictive di...